:00:37. > :00:43.Leave campaigners say Turkey is on course to join
:00:44. > :00:46.the European Union and, if we remain in the EU,
:00:47. > :00:48.that will mean more criminals here and greater pressure
:00:49. > :00:52.The Prime Minister says it's nonsense.
:00:53. > :00:55.We'll have the latest on this developing row.
:00:56. > :00:57.This woman claims to be the voice of business -
:00:58. > :01:01.and that most businesses in the UK want to remain in the EU.
:01:02. > :01:03.But is the business case that clear cut?
:01:04. > :01:08.We speak to the Director General of the CBI.
:01:09. > :01:10.When it comes to gauging public opinion on the referendum,
:01:11. > :01:12.which is better: telephone polls or online polls?
:01:13. > :01:16.Even the pollsters are having trouble answering that one.
:01:17. > :01:20.And I tell you what, if I don't know,
:01:21. > :01:23.having done all this opinion polling for lark for 21 years,
:01:24. > :01:39.In London it's thought 400,000, wrath citizens are eligible to vote
:01:40. > :01:42.in the EU referendum. Which way did they tilt?
:01:43. > :01:45.And with me - as always - a political panel of the best
:01:46. > :01:48.and the brightest in the business, hopefully they do know which way
:01:49. > :01:51.to jump: Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Janan Ganesh
:01:52. > :01:55.who'll be tweeting throughout the programme.
:01:56. > :01:57.Turkey has taken centre-stage in the referendum debate today.
:01:58. > :01:59.Vote Leave are launching a new poster campaign warning that
:02:00. > :02:03.Turkey is on course to join the EU, leaving the UK vulnerable
:02:04. > :02:08.to criminals, mass migration and more pressure on public services.
:02:09. > :02:10.The Prime Minister was asked about the claims
:02:11. > :02:13.on the Robert Peston programme on ITV.
:02:14. > :02:17.Every country has a veto, and let's be clear,
:02:18. > :02:22.as Boris himself said, Turkey joining the EU is not remotely on
:02:23. > :02:24.the cards. At the current rate of progress, this would be decades
:02:25. > :02:27.literally decades, before this even had a prospect of
:02:28. > :02:32.happening, and even at that stage, we would be able to say no.
:02:33. > :02:35.Well, that was David Cameron this morning.
:02:36. > :02:46.But here's what he had to say in a speech in Istanbul in 2010
:02:47. > :02:50.But here's what he had to say in a speech in Ankara in 2010.
:02:51. > :02:57.It makes me angry that your progress towards EU membership can be
:02:58. > :03:02.frustrated. My view is clear. I believe it is wrong to say that
:03:03. > :03:07.Turkey can guard the camp, but not be allowed to sit in the tent. So
:03:08. > :03:13.why will remain your strongest possible advocate for EU membership
:03:14. > :03:17.and for greater influence at the top table of European diplomacy. The
:03:18. > :03:21.Prime Minister six years ago after becoming Prime Minister.
:03:22. > :03:29.Is it a proper issue for this referendum or is it a red herring?
:03:30. > :03:32.It is an issue and quite frankly, the Leave campaign will be delighted
:03:33. > :03:38.that we are now talking about Turkey, because every time you talk
:03:39. > :03:41.about Turkey, you conjure up the image of more migration,
:03:42. > :03:45.uncontrolled immigration from a poorer countries so it is a Leave
:03:46. > :03:56.win. I am not sure that the Prime Minister is right to engage in this
:03:57. > :03:59.one. But he has been called about this from someone whose judgment he
:04:00. > :04:07.also calls into question. But is a strange thing, his own Armed Forces
:04:08. > :04:13.Minister. The Prime Minister is right to say we have a veto, every
:04:14. > :04:17.EU member has a veto in new members, but if the Prime Minister is in
:04:18. > :04:23.favour of Turkey joining, which is said he was in Ankara, then the veto
:04:24. > :04:27.does not matter? Absolutely. What a great clip that was the Prime
:04:28. > :04:31.Minister in 2010, when he set out Ray clearly what his position is. He
:04:32. > :04:39.supports Turkey joining the EU in whatever time frame that may be It
:04:40. > :04:42.does not do for the Prime Minister to say we have a veto. The question
:04:43. > :04:47.is, will you use that veto? If he is saying we would use our veto against
:04:48. > :04:56.Turkey, that is big news and can we hear it? It would be a big U-turn.
:04:57. > :05:00.It could be moot, couldn't it? There is no prospect of Turkey joining in
:05:01. > :05:04.the future, is there? The telling thing about this conversation as we
:05:05. > :05:08.are focusing on our veto and the veto possessed by all existing EU
:05:09. > :05:14.members and not focusing on Turkey itself. Is that country as keen on
:05:15. > :05:19.joining as was a decade ago? The change and internal politics in
:05:20. > :05:24.Turkey suggests they are less keen on membership or less keen on doing
:05:25. > :05:28.the things necessary to successfully apply for EU mentorship than they
:05:29. > :05:31.were a while ago. I think for reasons on the Turkish side and on
:05:32. > :05:36.the European side, it will not happen until I am a very old man.
:05:37. > :05:39.But it is entirely legitimate for Leave to play up this issue and
:05:40. > :05:42.every day we talk about migration is a day we're not spending talking
:05:43. > :05:50.about the economy and I think that is their only route to victory four
:05:51. > :05:52.weeks' time. There are plenty of forces in Germany and France, two
:05:53. > :05:58.countries about to have elections next year, who are not going to
:05:59. > :06:03.agree to Turkey joining any time soon. And if you were to be fair to
:06:04. > :06:08.the prime and Vista, you would say he made that speech in 2010 in
:06:09. > :06:12.Ankara, me and a whole load of political hacks were in the room
:06:13. > :06:19.when he said it... Were you there? I was there. At one stage he says he
:06:20. > :06:26.was passionate about Turkish president. He was very keen to suck
:06:27. > :06:33.up to President Erdogan at the time because he wanted more trade. That
:06:34. > :06:37.was pre-migration crisis. That has changed everything not just in
:06:38. > :06:41.British politics but for Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande. It may
:06:42. > :06:49.be acceptable for the Prime Minister to do a 180 degrees U-turn on this
:06:50. > :06:51.issue. We will see as the day develops.
:06:52. > :06:54.So, the head of the NHS in England, Simon Stevens, says the health
:06:55. > :06:57.service would be worse off if we decide to leave the EU.
:06:58. > :06:59.Two of his predecessors have also written a joint article
:07:00. > :07:01.in the Sunday Times saying that they think,
:07:02. > :07:04.for the NHS at least, staying in the EU is
:07:05. > :07:07.Mr Stevens was on the Andrew Marr Show this morning.
:07:08. > :07:12.When Mark Carney says that the risk of a slowdown in economic growth,
:07:13. > :07:16.possibly a recession, if we end up exiting the EU,
:07:17. > :07:20.if Mark Carney is right, then that is a severe concern
:07:21. > :07:24.for the National Health Service because it would be very dangerous
:07:25. > :07:28.if at precisely the moment the NHS is going to need extra funding,
:07:29. > :07:31.actually the economy goes into a tailspin and that funding
:07:32. > :07:37.Leave campaigners, unsurprisingly, take a different view -
:07:38. > :07:40.they argue that remaining in the EU will place further strain on the NHS
:07:41. > :07:43.due to continued free movement of people and the accession
:07:44. > :07:56.What is the relationship between our membership
:07:57. > :08:01.The Department of Health estimates that the cost to the NHS in England
:08:02. > :08:02.from visitors and non-permanent residents who come from
:08:03. > :08:05.the European economic area, that is the EU plus Iceland,
:08:06. > :08:08.Lichtenstein and Norway, is around ?340 million a year.
:08:09. > :08:11.To put that in context, the total annual expenditure
:08:12. > :08:16.in England's NHS was ?113 billion in 2014-15.
:08:17. > :08:19.There are around 3 million people from other EU countries resident
:08:20. > :08:25.in the UK and all are entitled to use NHS services.
:08:26. > :08:31.All those would be entitled to stay in the UK, even if we were to leave
:08:32. > :08:34.the EU, due to the rights under the Vienna Convention.
:08:35. > :08:39.In 2015, around 257,000 EU nationals migrated to the UK.
:08:40. > :08:42.But whether that number would come down if we vote to leave depends
:08:43. > :08:47.on the deal the UK strikes with the EU following an exit.
:08:48. > :08:53.NHS England says the total number of staff coming from EU countries
:08:54. > :08:59.was just over 53,000, or 4.6% of the total NHS workforce.
:09:00. > :09:03.A total of 9% of NHS England's hospital doctors, 6% of its nurses
:09:04. > :09:08.and health visitors, come from other EU countries,
:09:09. > :09:11.however, all would be entitled to stay in the event of a vote
:09:12. > :09:14.to leave, and without knowing what any future deal might be,
:09:15. > :09:17.it is impossible to know if there would be any impact
:09:18. > :09:24.A one-time pro-European Foreign Secretary, he is now
:09:25. > :09:30.campaigning for the UK to leave the European Union.
:09:31. > :09:38.Good morning, David Owen. Let me come straight to the remarks by the
:09:39. > :09:42.man currently running the NHS in England, Simon Stevens. He said it
:09:43. > :09:47.would be better for the NHS if we remain in the EU. What is your
:09:48. > :09:53.response? Let's be quite clear. Simon Stevens is the manager of the
:09:54. > :10:00.NHS, which is currently ?3 billion in debt. This man has presided now
:10:01. > :10:04.for a sufficient time to judge his management skills. In almost every
:10:05. > :10:10.part of the National Health Service, there is an acute crisis. He spent
:10:11. > :10:19.ten years in America, with an American health care company,
:10:20. > :10:23.effectively arguing for the TTIP, this treaty between America and the
:10:24. > :10:35.European Union, which could be introduced, and an assessment makes
:10:36. > :10:42.it very clear that TTIP will be very damaging to the National Health
:10:43. > :10:46.Service, if it is drafted in the way that it is. Simon Stevens should
:10:47. > :10:51.stick to his Lee which is to manage the health service more effectively.
:10:52. > :10:56.He is an individual, he has a view on the European Union which is fine,
:10:57. > :11:01.but his basic job is to look after the NHS, and at the moment he is
:11:02. > :11:10.making a very considerable mess of. It is not just Simon Stevens, two of
:11:11. > :11:16.his predecessors say staying in the EU is the preferable option.
:11:17. > :11:21.Identifying, if there is any danger to the NHS, it is in staying in
:11:22. > :11:26.with all the elements of the NHS which are now involved with the EU.
:11:27. > :11:31.-- I don't think. For the first 20 years of our membership, with the
:11:32. > :11:36.common market, we had no involvement with the NHS at all. Now the NHS
:11:37. > :11:41.procurement policy, the NHS competition policy is all impact in,
:11:42. > :11:46.because we have started to Mark ties the NHS in 2002 under Labour. It
:11:47. > :11:50.continued under the coalition with the Liberal Democrats of this
:11:51. > :11:54.present Conservative government and it has continued under this
:11:55. > :11:59.Conservative government. If you treat health like water or
:12:00. > :12:04.electricity or gas, as a utility, and you treat them all as customers,
:12:05. > :12:11.then you will be under market pressures, and the problem with the
:12:12. > :12:14.NHS is we lost what it was, it fortunately still is in Wales,
:12:15. > :12:19.Scotland and Northern Ireland, but in England it is a marker ties to
:12:20. > :12:22.health service modelling itself on the United States of America. If you
:12:23. > :12:28.wanted to make changes, you would be wiser to stick to Germany or France,
:12:29. > :12:34.not go the United States model. Let me put a point to you. Michael Gove,
:12:35. > :12:37.part of the Leave campaign, he says the NHS could be overwhelmed by
:12:38. > :12:44.continued migration if we stay in the EU. He predicts an extra 5
:12:45. > :12:50.million plus by 2030. These predictions suggest that Turkey
:12:51. > :12:56.Macedonia and Albania all join the EU by 2020. That is not on the
:12:57. > :13:03.cards, is it? Let's be clear about your programme so far and analyse
:13:04. > :13:07.what has been said already. It is not the Prime Minister what he said
:13:08. > :13:12.in Istanbul, the Prime Minister nine weeks ago signed up to the European
:13:13. > :13:20.Council meeting on the 18th of March, and he said, to re-energise
:13:21. > :13:27.the accession process for Turkey to join the EU, and to make preparatory
:13:28. > :13:33.work for the opening of other chapters will continue at an
:13:34. > :13:36.accelerating pace. This is a Prime Minister who is getting used to
:13:37. > :13:41.saying one thing one time, another thing another. Nine weeks ago, we
:13:42. > :13:48.were committed to increasing the speed of entry for Turkey into the
:13:49. > :13:52.European Union. I am passionate about keeping Turkey inside Nato,
:13:53. > :13:57.and with one foot in the EU and with one foot in the Middle East. Why?
:13:58. > :14:03.Because Turkey is essentially important country, as a member of
:14:04. > :14:08.Nato in dealing with Isil, Syria, Iraq and many other problems around
:14:09. > :14:12.the world. But you will not make it by bringing them prematurely into
:14:13. > :14:17.the European Union. What we should be doing is encouraging them to come
:14:18. > :14:25.into the single market which has non-EU countries associated, but
:14:26. > :14:33.without this issue of freedom of movement of Labour. You are Foreign
:14:34. > :14:39.Secretary... Let me ask this question. You must surely know, that
:14:40. > :14:44.Turkey's chances of joining the EU in the foreseeable future are
:14:45. > :14:47.remote. Isn't that the reality? No, I think what was said by your
:14:48. > :14:52.commentator earlier in the programmers that has been a change
:14:53. > :14:55.of foreign policy. If the Prime Minister commits nine weeks ago to
:14:56. > :15:01.speeding up Turkey's membership and then does not deliver on it, what
:15:02. > :15:05.will be the consequences? Turkey will feel they have been lied to or
:15:06. > :15:10.rejected by the Europeans and they will, in my view, come out of Nato
:15:11. > :15:15.with very profound consequences At the moment, let's treat Turkey with
:15:16. > :15:18.respect, let's try and ensure they make the necessary changes on human
:15:19. > :15:24.rights and in many other areas. There are a lot of worrying aspects
:15:25. > :15:29.about Turkish policy, but mention above the European Union in my view
:15:30. > :15:35.is not the issue. It is how to make them more committed to Europe. Don't
:15:36. > :15:40.avoid this question. If we are in the European Union, we are committed
:15:41. > :15:45.to freedom of movement of Labour in every aspect of EU membership. That
:15:46. > :15:49.is a problem. David Owen, thank you, we will have to leave it there.
:15:50. > :15:50.The Confederation Of British Industry calls itself
:15:51. > :15:53.the "voice of business", claiming to speak on behalf
:15:54. > :15:56.of 190,000 businesses, employing up to 7 million people.
:15:57. > :15:58.And according to the CBI, British businesses overwhelmingly
:15:59. > :16:01.back the idea of remaining in the EU.
:16:02. > :16:05.What's more, they've been encouraging their members to talk
:16:06. > :16:08.to staff about the referendum to give them "the choice to hear
:16:09. > :16:11.what impact a Brexit would have on company growth,
:16:12. > :16:12.their jobs and their local community".
:16:13. > :16:20.As you can imagine, Leave campaigners are not amused.
:16:21. > :16:22.The chair of the Vote Leave business council, John Longworth,
:16:23. > :16:24.a former director-general of the British Chambers Of Commerce,
:16:25. > :16:26.said the call was an "anti-democratic abuse of power
:16:27. > :16:33.He added: "It's highly regrettable to see big corporate bosses plotting
:16:34. > :16:38.to gang up on their staff, and lecture them on how to vote "
:16:39. > :16:40.Well, we're joined now by the director
:16:41. > :16:57.general of the CBI, Carolyn Fairbairn.
:16:58. > :17:01.Welcome to the programme. Good morning. If big business told its
:17:02. > :17:03.workers how to vote in a general election, there would be broad, so
:17:04. > :17:06.why are you encouraging your members to warn their workers about the
:17:07. > :17:08.dangers of Brexit? That is not what we have said. We have said that
:17:09. > :17:11.people working today in economy want to hear from their employers about
:17:12. > :17:14.what it means on either side of the debate. That is not what you said,
:17:15. > :17:19.you said what impact Brexit would have on growth, jobs and the local
:17:20. > :17:25.community. Positive for negative. You did not say that? It is clear
:17:26. > :17:29.this is not about warning anybody. This is about the questions that
:17:30. > :17:34.people are now asking about what it means for them. We were clean about
:17:35. > :17:37.that. Most of your members, you claim, are in favour of staying in
:17:38. > :17:41.the European Union. The message going out to the workforce will be
:17:42. > :17:47.overwhelmingly about remaining in the EU. The main thing is that
:17:48. > :17:52.people who are going to vote on June 23 have as good an understanding as
:17:53. > :17:56.they possibly can about what it means for their jobs, families and
:17:57. > :18:00.communities. That was the key message, nothing about telling
:18:01. > :18:04.people how to vote. We learned this week that one of your members,
:18:05. > :18:09.Circle, was planning uproar EU campaign with the Prime Minister,
:18:10. > :18:13.even before the renegotiations were finished. With the CBI or any of
:18:14. > :18:22.your members have similar discussions with the government To
:18:23. > :18:25.my knowledge, no. The conversations that businesses, universities, all
:18:26. > :18:30.parts of our society have with government go on every day. Were you
:18:31. > :18:37.planning the pro-union-mac campaign with the government even before the
:18:38. > :18:43.renegotiations? No. But Circle was? No. Everything the CBI has done is a
:18:44. > :18:47.result of the things we have done and a half of our members. Circle
:18:48. > :18:53.has contracts with the government worth several million pounds. The
:18:54. > :18:57.taxpayer pays for that. Its boss was offering to help the Prime Minister
:18:58. > :19:02.do what he could to help keep Britain in the EU. It was a behind
:19:03. > :19:07.closed doors stitch up between big government and big business, wasn't
:19:08. > :19:11.it? The important thing is to understand what businesses across
:19:12. > :19:18.the country of all sizes are seeing. You're focusing on one company. What
:19:19. > :19:24.we are seeing is that the majority of businesses want to stay in the
:19:25. > :19:28.European Union. I understand that. I am asking you if the way this
:19:29. > :19:33.company has handled this... It smells of a stitch up? I do not
:19:34. > :19:37.think this is a stitch up. It is about voices of business being heard
:19:38. > :19:42.on issues of jobs, growth and the future prosperity of our country.
:19:43. > :19:46.People can make their decisions on polling day about a whole variety of
:19:47. > :19:49.factors, but businesses who are trading with the European Union
:19:50. > :19:54.everyday, having their voices clearly heard. The voice of this
:19:55. > :20:04.company was certainly clearly heard. He saw the Prime Minister, Mr
:20:05. > :20:06.Soames. This is what he did in the follow-up letter. He spoke about
:20:07. > :20:09.backing the prime and is to's campaign to keep us in the EU. This
:20:10. > :20:17.is even though the renegotiations were not finished. He went on to
:20:18. > :20:22.lobby for business. He said... He wants more business at the same
:20:23. > :20:27.time. It really does add to the sense that this is big business
:20:28. > :20:32.feathering its own nest. That is not what is going on. There are
:20:33. > :20:36.conversations all the time. Why he wise to do that, to lobby for more
:20:37. > :20:41.business at the same time as lobbying to stay in the EU? I think
:20:42. > :20:45.there are conversations happening all the time. Is that conversation
:20:46. > :20:51.appropriate? Those are questions for other people. The CBI represents
:20:52. > :20:55.mainly businesses across the UK and Europe picking on one. The important
:20:56. > :21:01.thing is the voices of the many are heard in this. Are they heard? You
:21:02. > :21:06.give the impression you like the EU because it is a one-stop club for
:21:07. > :21:10.big business. There are 30,000 lobbyists in Brussels, most of them
:21:11. > :21:14.are doing for the interests of your kind of members, the business.
:21:15. > :21:18.Ordinary folk do not get a look in? I do not think that is true. We have
:21:19. > :21:23.had 20 business surveys since the beginning of the year, for all
:21:24. > :21:27.different sizes of business, and it is not unanimous, but they are all
:21:28. > :21:32.seeing broadly the same thing. We have had the creative industries
:21:33. > :21:38.Forum coming out with the survey. 93%, because they are big exporters.
:21:39. > :21:43.This is not just big business. It is all sizes of business. Let's look at
:21:44. > :21:48.how the EU is good for your members but not necessarily the rest of us.
:21:49. > :21:52.The European Court of Justice has forced Her Majesty is Customs and
:21:53. > :21:57.revenue to hand back almost ?8 billion in tax paid by big British
:21:58. > :22:01.companies, overruling tax laws made by our government and our
:22:02. > :22:06.Parliament. That is good for big business but not public services?
:22:07. > :22:09.There are areas where we share sovereignty, in order to have a
:22:10. > :22:13.level playing field across Europe for businesses overall. We are not
:22:14. > :22:19.always going to like all of the rules. It is a question of whether
:22:20. > :22:24.the benefits outweigh the costs The benefits to your members are clear,
:22:25. > :22:29.they are paying a billion less in tax. The independent office of
:22:30. > :22:35.budget responsibility expected HMRC to pay another 8 billion back by the
:22:36. > :22:39.end of the decade. This is about lowering tax regimes and not
:22:40. > :22:45.allowing HMRC to get the proper tax. That is not fear to ordinary people?
:22:46. > :22:50.To be clear, the CBI can businesses overall do not support aggressive
:22:51. > :22:55.tax avoidance. We support the moves that have been taken at the OECD
:22:56. > :23:01.level to sort this out. This is not something we support. Your members
:23:02. > :23:06.will be 16 billion better off. British schools, hospitals, public
:23:07. > :23:11.services, will be 16 billion worse off. If the HMRC goes down in all
:23:12. > :23:18.these cases, we could be 40 billion worse off. Good for big business,
:23:19. > :23:22.but not local hospitals? I do not know the exact details of those
:23:23. > :23:28.numbers, but I would say that the moves to improve tax policy are
:23:29. > :23:33.absolutely supported by members The CBI has been wrong about Britain in
:23:34. > :23:38.the EU in the past. Why should we listen to you now? This is becoming
:23:39. > :23:45.a distraction. You are right that when the euro was debated at the end
:23:46. > :23:50.of the 1980s, in principle, the CBI had a principle of support with
:23:51. > :23:54.caveats. You supported the principle of the European exchange mechanism.
:23:55. > :23:59.That ended in recession. Many people lost their homes and jobs. You then
:24:00. > :24:07.became enthusiastic about UK membership of the monetary union,
:24:08. > :24:12.the euro. I ask again, if you were wrong then, why should we listen to
:24:13. > :24:16.you now? Two important points, if you had continued to scroll down,
:24:17. > :24:21.you would seem that there were caveats, conditions that had to be
:24:22. > :24:27.met. Conditions around harmonisation of inflation and the economy. They
:24:28. > :24:31.were never met. By 2000 the CBI had moved its position to neutral. The
:24:32. > :24:35.discussion we are having now is about something very different. It
:24:36. > :24:40.is about the experience that we as an economy have had the European
:24:41. > :24:45.Union for 43 years. We have thrived. We have gone from being the sick man
:24:46. > :24:50.of Europe to being the strong man. His Mrs are doing well. The benefit
:24:51. > :24:54.from being in a single market. The euro was about something which
:24:55. > :24:59.people were imagining in the future, a different debate. Let's come to
:25:00. > :25:03.the current debate. We saw your stance on the euro then. You know
:25:04. > :25:11.think we would be better off if we remain. That is the clear fight --
:25:12. > :25:14.the clear-cut view of the CBI. You commissioned an organisation to
:25:15. > :25:21.assess the impact of leaving the EU. That is the result of the survey. If
:25:22. > :25:28.we remain, they think the economy will grow by 41% by 2030. Even if we
:25:29. > :25:33.were to come out, the economy would still grow by 39%, even if we did
:25:34. > :25:40.not have any free trade against it would grow by 36%. It is hardly game
:25:41. > :25:44.changing either way? We have deliberately taken optimistic,
:25:45. > :25:49.balance and areas of the future You're right, economies recover and
:25:50. > :25:54.adapt. You have not shown the short-term impact of several years
:25:55. > :25:57.of uncertainty. What we believe and many others believe as well, is
:25:58. > :26:06.there could be significant short-term impacts, no sunlit
:26:07. > :26:12.uplands. You can get to 39%. Your own study shows are economy would be
:26:13. > :26:17.almost 40% bigger by 2030, even if we were to leave. That is if we do a
:26:18. > :26:22.trade deal with the US, if we are able to form new relationships with
:26:23. > :26:28.the EU. These are optimistic assumptions. Take the non-optimistic
:26:29. > :26:34.on, the World Trade Organisation. We just trade on existing rules. It is
:26:35. > :26:38.36%, it is still a massive rise Of course we would continue to grow. No
:26:39. > :26:44.one has ever said we would not continue to grow. But will we be
:26:45. > :26:49.more prosperous? We would be 36 more prosperous. In the short-term,
:26:50. > :26:55.by 2020, we estimate there would be a million fewer jobs and 4-5% hate
:26:56. > :27:00.to GDP. Do we want to do that to school leavers? We've just come out
:27:01. > :27:04.of recession. You accept that the difference is not massive? It is
:27:05. > :27:09.entirely possible the economy would adapt. But only with significant
:27:10. > :27:13.short-term impact, and particularly an impact on the next generation of
:27:14. > :27:20.school leavers. The CBI claims that each household benefits to the tune
:27:21. > :27:27.of six -- ?3000 a year. Observers have condemned that as a dishonest
:27:28. > :27:33.figure. Do you stand by it? We do. It was a literature sturdy of
:27:34. > :27:38.existing studies. We wanted to put together a figure that was easy to
:27:39. > :27:43.understand. -- literature study Estimates like that are difficult to
:27:44. > :27:48.do. There was a range good around it. To be clear, standards of living
:27:49. > :27:55.have doubled. That is since the UK joined the European Union. They have
:27:56. > :27:59.gone from ?20,000 household income to about ?40,000. We are seeing a
:28:00. > :28:03.proportion of that has been a result of membership of the European Union,
:28:04. > :28:08.and independent studies would support that. You did no original
:28:09. > :28:13.research for this at all. We never claimed to. I have explained that to
:28:14. > :28:24.our viewers. You simply did a survey of research papers. But when you
:28:25. > :28:26.look, you cherry picked the research papers that had pro-union-mac
:28:27. > :28:29.inclusions. That is not true. I have got the ones that you did not use,
:28:30. > :28:34.you omitted the IUD, you omitted the National Institute for economic and
:28:35. > :28:39.social research. Even omitted the US Trade Commission survey of what it
:28:40. > :28:45.meant, or to get this ?3000 figure. You know tell me it is not accurate.
:28:46. > :28:49.That is not true. The evaluation we did of the different surveys, we
:28:50. > :28:55.omitted as many on one side as the other. There is a 20 page paper on
:28:56. > :28:58.this which anyone can go and read. It sets out the methodology
:28:59. > :29:06.accurately. You seem to be biased against those that did not come to
:29:07. > :29:09.the conclusion you want. Channel 4's respected fact checked included the
:29:10. > :29:14.figure is not based on any real evidence. The chairman of the
:29:15. > :29:17.Treasury Select Committee described it as a scandalous misuse of data
:29:18. > :29:22.and intellectually miss honest. We went to him and we set out the
:29:23. > :29:27.facts. I do not think he had read the paper. It is not intended to be
:29:28. > :29:33.anything other than an assessment of consensus views over the last ten
:29:34. > :29:41.years. You did not include other papers. The important thing is to be
:29:42. > :29:45.focusing on what this would mean for the decision for the country. You're
:29:46. > :29:50.telling people that households would be ?3000 a year worse off if we were
:29:51. > :29:57.to leave? That is not what we are saying. Are you saying that we are
:29:58. > :30:01.?3000 better off by remaining? As a result of having joined, about 5%
:30:02. > :30:05.of the increase in living standards over the time since joining is a
:30:06. > :30:10.result of being part of the European Union. That is a reasonable thing to
:30:11. > :30:11.have said. Is the CBI still keen on principle to join the euro?
:30:12. > :30:21.Absolutely not. Would you welcome a further
:30:22. > :30:26.expansion of the EU to include the five countries already in the queue?
:30:27. > :30:30.I think it has to depend on the conditions at the time. The thing
:30:31. > :30:34.that is clear is we have a sovereign choice over those additional
:30:35. > :30:39.countries. Turkey is a huge market, it could be good for British
:30:40. > :30:50.business, would you welcome it? We have not had that discussion with
:30:51. > :30:53.our members. We would have a discussion at that time and have a
:30:54. > :30:56.point of view at that time. The CBI welcomed both the Nice Treaty and
:30:57. > :31:01.Lisbon Treaty. Would you welcome a further transfer of powers if we
:31:02. > :31:06.voted to remain? No. I think one thing which is clear is we pool
:31:07. > :31:09.sovereignty when it is in the benefits of our economy and we don't
:31:10. > :31:13.wear it is not. I would say one thing, in terms of the opt out from
:31:14. > :31:18.the working Time directive, a very important part of our special
:31:19. > :31:24.arrangement, if you like, of the European Union, the CBI was fully
:31:25. > :31:27.part of and helped to negotiate Thank you.
:31:28. > :31:30.Depending on which polls you look at, Britain is either scoffing
:31:31. > :31:32.at the idea of leaving the EU or it's marching swiftly
:31:33. > :31:36.One telephone poll this week gave Remain an eight point lead.
:31:37. > :31:39.An online poll, meanwhile, gave it to Leave by four points
:31:40. > :31:41.The problem is that both those polls were done
:31:42. > :31:50.Our society and our electorate is made up of unique individuals,
:31:51. > :31:52.every one of them different and yet they share many attributes:
:31:53. > :31:55.gender, age, race, religion, economic background, education,
:31:56. > :32:02.political views, and social attitudes.
:32:03. > :32:06.Pollsters, therefore, can only ever try to tell us
:32:07. > :32:12.terms of a specific question, but it's only ever going to be
:32:13. > :32:14.a snapshot of wildly interpretable data.
:32:15. > :32:17.That snapshot is simply a moment in time, and is always,
:32:18. > :32:21.inevitably, slightly inaccurate to varying degrees,
:32:22. > :32:23.and what makes political polling even harder
:32:24. > :32:31.is it is like trying to hit a moving target
:32:32. > :32:32.from a moving platform in the
:32:33. > :32:36.And you would think in this EU referendum the simplicity
:32:37. > :32:38.of the question would help, should we leave
:32:39. > :32:46.It makes the whole thing much more complicated.
:32:47. > :32:49.The problem is a slew of polls giving very different signals.
:32:50. > :32:51.Given the problems pollsters had getting the
:32:52. > :32:56.general election right, and some of them didn't, this matters.
:32:57. > :32:59.Some have it neck and neck, some Remain ahead, others ahead
:33:00. > :33:09.It is a minefield in terms of working out
:33:10. > :33:17.When I apply different technical methods to my raw data,
:33:18. > :33:20.I can move the Remain or Leave lead in both directions.
:33:21. > :33:25.I tell you what, if I do not know having done this
:33:26. > :33:29.opinion polling lark for 21 years, I am not sure who does.
:33:30. > :33:33.Some of this is down to how the polls are done,
:33:34. > :33:36.how they get a truly representative sample of
:33:37. > :33:42.society in the first place, either by phone or online panels.
:33:43. > :33:45.Which is best is a bone of contention that in
:33:46. > :33:47.recent days has even spilt onto social media,
:33:48. > :33:53.The problem is it has become harder and harder to get
:33:54. > :33:58.Online samples are by their nature self-selecting so have biases
:33:59. > :34:03.Phone samples used to be considered far more representative,
:34:04. > :34:06.but in recent years, the response rates to phone
:34:07. > :34:09.polls have dropped so low it is hard now to consider them to be
:34:10. > :34:14.So both modes have an element of self-selection.
:34:15. > :34:17.Can I ask you a few questions about about yourself?
:34:18. > :34:20.Would you say you are likely to vote or will definitely vote?
:34:21. > :34:26.Fewer of us use landlines or want to be cold called,
:34:27. > :34:29.thus more calls then ever before have to be made just to get
:34:30. > :34:34.But you do avoid those who, with online polling,
:34:35. > :34:40.And phone contact through persistence is better
:34:41. > :34:45.at eventually reaching those who are harder to get hold of.
:34:46. > :34:51.Would it be all right if we call you back later?
:34:52. > :34:56.There is a growing narrative amongst some pollsters
:34:57. > :34:59.that phone polling is probably the more accurate,
:35:00. > :35:00.which, given recent phone polling
:35:01. > :35:08.We look at samples and try to check them to see we have the right
:35:09. > :35:10.number of people who vote, do we believe
:35:11. > :35:12.that all the people in our sample who tell us they're
:35:13. > :35:14.going to vote actually will, are we missing
:35:15. > :35:21.people who really just do not care about the referendum
:35:22. > :35:23.referendum and aren't going to vote, are we missing the great
:35:24. > :35:25.unwashed who do not have degrees?
:35:26. > :35:27.All those things, when we make adjustments
:35:28. > :35:29.for all of those things, Remain is still ahead.
:35:30. > :35:31.We would have to be very, very wrong indeed for
:35:32. > :35:34.Remain, at the moment, on the polling so far, not to win this
:35:35. > :35:38.Online pollsters, who use panels of signed up people,
:35:39. > :35:40.are perhaps not surprisingly pointing to weaknesses
:35:41. > :35:44.So much so that the online pollsters YouGov have conducted
:35:45. > :35:50.some phone polling about phone polling.
:35:51. > :35:53.What we found from that comparison, both to the national picture
:35:54. > :35:57.and to our online polls, was that telephone polls
:35:58. > :35:59.were underestimating the people who are
:36:00. > :36:03.not university educated, and that is hugely important in the EU
:36:04. > :36:06.referendum because we know that is one of the great
:36:07. > :36:09.social cleavages, in other words, one of the great things that divides
:36:10. > :36:12.So phone polls are missing potential Leave voters.
:36:13. > :36:19.Online are accused of overstating them,
:36:20. > :36:27.there are two other that vital: are are you going to vote?
:36:28. > :36:29.Turnout will be crucial on June 23rd.
:36:30. > :36:32.The higher it is the more it favours Remain, and what happens
:36:33. > :36:34.when the mass of "don't knows" make up their mind?
:36:35. > :36:36.With more questions and mixed answers,
:36:37. > :36:39.and four weeks to go, most pollsters might
:36:40. > :36:41.reasonably fear the result of a poll
:36:42. > :36:43.that asked us all, "Do pollsters really have a
:36:44. > :36:51.It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
:36:52. > :36:54.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now
:36:55. > :36:58.It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
:36:59. > :37:07.First though, the Sunday Politics where you are.
:37:08. > :37:12.Coming up later today: An estimated 400,000 Commonwealth citizens
:37:13. > :37:16.in London have the right to vote in the EU referendum.
:37:17. > :37:19.What are the indicators of which way they'll go?
:37:20. > :37:23.With me this week, Conservative MP for Basildon and Billericay,
:37:24. > :37:25.John Baron, and Karen Buck, Labour MP for Westminster North
:37:26. > :37:31.Let's start first with the centrepiece of the government's
:37:32. > :37:33.programme outlined in the Queen's Speech,
:37:34. > :37:35.which was prison reform, with the focus
:37:36. > :37:43.Prison governors will be given unprecedented freedom
:37:44. > :37:48.and they will be able to ensure prisoners receive better education.
:37:49. > :37:54.Old and inefficient prisons will be closed, and new institutions built
:37:55. > :37:58.where prisoners can be put more effectively to work.
:37:59. > :38:04.IPads for prisoners, more flexible visiting hours,
:38:05. > :38:08.perhaps working during the week and just in prison at weekends?
:38:09. > :38:14.I do not agree with everything but good proposals overall.
:38:15. > :38:16.We've got to address this reoffending cycle.
:38:17. > :38:18.50% of prisoners who are released go on to reoffend.
:38:19. > :38:21.We have got to have greater investment in our prisons.
:38:22. > :38:25.We've got to encourage better rehabilitation because if we do not,
:38:26. > :38:30.all we are going to do is continue to turn young prisoners,
:38:31. > :38:50.inexperienced prisoners, into experienced ones,
:38:51. > :38:50.and that is why 1.3 billion on extra prisons, new prisons,
:38:51. > :38:50.greater devolvement of powers to governors, to introduce
:38:51. > :38:51.initiatives that best suit their intake,
:38:52. > :38:51.greater emphasis on education, transparency, and yes,
:38:52. > :39:10.mixing in with the community, so they do not feel alienated
:39:11. > :39:10.There is a lots of devil in the detail.
:39:11. > :39:10.We will be picking over this, but broadly speaking,
:39:11. > :39:10.it has got to be the right way of approaching it,
:39:11. > :39:11.because we have got to clamp down on this fact that 50% of prisoners
:39:12. > :39:36.What has happened is a growing crisis, we have lost 7,000 prison
:39:37. > :39:45.staff, we have seen self-harm instances rise by a third,
:39:46. > :39:48.we are seeing riots in prisons, we are seeing 22,000 emergency
:39:49. > :39:51.Frankly, unless we get a grip of this, some building
:39:52. > :39:54.of new prisons further down the road is simply not grappling with
:39:55. > :39:58.Places like Wandsworth, which is one that will be
:39:59. > :40:00.in the reform programme, 600 prisoners more than its supposed
:40:01. > :40:07.It is not just this government, it is governments over the decades.
:40:08. > :40:09.I'm not making a party political point.
:40:10. > :40:11.We've got to combat the overcrowding.
:40:12. > :40:14.We've got to recognise that a lot of people in prison
:40:15. > :40:18.Many of them have seen domestic violence,
:40:19. > :40:22.Half of the prison population do not have one
:40:23. > :40:27.We've got to put the greater effort in to try to realise the potential
:40:28. > :40:30.of the prison population while recognising we have a duty
:40:31. > :40:38.Rehabilitation is key to that, but it does require investment
:40:39. > :40:42.and looking for the best in people without being naive.
:40:43. > :40:46.John is right in saying that overcrowding has been systemic
:40:47. > :40:53.That is not a party political point, but what is a party political point,
:40:54. > :40:57.I am afraid, is that we are now into a sixth year of major cuts
:40:58. > :41:03.Unless we do something about that, if prisoners are locked up 22 hours
:41:04. > :41:05.a day, if there are not the staff to make sure
:41:06. > :41:08.that prisoners are safe, either from each other or self-harm,
:41:09. > :41:11.then an argument for rehabilitation and work and education is fine,
:41:12. > :41:18.Two British expats were this week trying and failing to win the legal
:41:19. > :41:22.All Commonwealth citizens living here
:41:23. > :41:28.That's potentially nearly half a million votes to play for
:41:29. > :41:30.in London alone from people who aren't citizens here,
:41:31. > :41:38.Britain's place in the world is set to be decided in exactly
:41:39. > :41:44.Not just by British citizens, but by voters from all 53 members
:41:45. > :41:49.Along with the Brits, obviously, that means two
:41:50. > :41:51.other EU member states, Malta and Cyprus, 18
:41:52. > :41:55.African countries, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh,
:41:56. > :41:58.parts of south-east Asia, Australasia, a whole
:41:59. > :42:00.host of Pacific Islands, Canada, and a whole
:42:01. > :42:07.The Commonwealth makes up about a quarter of all the countries
:42:08. > :42:10.in the world, and a quarter of the world's population,
:42:11. > :42:13.some 2.3 billion people, who, if they happen to be
:42:14. > :42:17.in the UK on June 23rd, and are registered, are entitled
:42:18. > :42:22.to vote and decide the future of the United Kingdom.
:42:23. > :42:28.In London alone, that is up to half a million votes.
:42:29. > :42:30.At the moment, the polls show absolutely neck and neck.
:42:31. > :42:35.Some show Leave ahead, some show Remain ahead.
:42:36. > :42:40.If it comes down to a 50.1% to 9.9% vote, every one will count
:42:41. > :42:43.and therefore the Commonwealth citizens could indeed tip it.
:42:44. > :42:46.And here is one of them now, Chloe Westley, an Australian
:42:47. > :42:48.from a group called Aussies For Britain,
:42:49. > :42:54.On a personal level, the EU might does affect me.
:42:55. > :42:57.As a non-EU immigrant I found it quite difficult to get a visa.
:42:58. > :43:01.If I had come from an EU country, that would not have been the case.
:43:02. > :43:03.I feel that this kind of discrimination does not
:43:04. > :43:08.It is not only Australians who do not like it.
:43:09. > :43:11.We have had groups starting such as Australians For Britain,
:43:12. > :43:13.Kiwis For Britain, Bangladeshis For Britain,
:43:14. > :43:16.and I think it is because of this issue of immigration.
:43:17. > :43:20.- Chloe introduced us to some fellow campaigners of mixed
:43:21. > :43:24.Some with dual citizenship, some British, but all came
:43:25. > :43:30.Let's be honest, it is blatant discrimination
:43:31. > :43:32.against the Commonwealth, because fundamentally,
:43:33. > :43:37.anybody with an EU passport, and that is 28 countries,
:43:38. > :43:40.28 countries, anyone can just rock up to the UK.
:43:41. > :43:47.My grandfather was in the British Indian Regiment.
:43:48. > :43:51.They fought for an independent United Kingdom.
:43:52. > :43:54.But with so many votes up for grabs, it is little surprise
:43:55. > :43:56.that the Remain camp are getting in on the act too,
:43:57. > :44:02.trying to win Commonwealth voters over in all sorts of places.
:44:03. > :44:07.We are holding meetings in churches, in temples, in school halls.
:44:08. > :44:09.People are having them, I am encouraging people
:44:10. > :44:11.to have coffee parties, open house, that is what
:44:12. > :44:17.It is about people talking to each other.
:44:18. > :44:21.Turn up to one of those and you may be given one of these flyers,
:44:22. > :44:25.focusing on prosperity and peace rather than immigration.
:44:26. > :44:30.The Leave campaign are pretending that, you know, if we stop the EU
:44:31. > :44:33.migrants coming in, we will be able to get the Commonwealth
:44:34. > :44:35.citizens to come in, doctors from India,
:44:36. > :44:39.nurses from the Caribbean, but this is not true.
:44:40. > :44:41.When you talk about immigrants coming in from the Commonwealth
:44:42. > :44:44.and the European Union, you need to think about the benefits
:44:45. > :44:51.It is about what the vision of Britain outside of Europe looks
:44:52. > :44:54.like and how that impacts on people in all aspects
:44:55. > :44:59.The European Union does not stop us from doing trade externally.
:45:00. > :45:03.It does not stop us from exporting to Commonwealth countries.
:45:04. > :45:06.Whichever side of the debate, both agree that one if not
:45:07. > :45:08.THE salient issue this June for the capital's Commonwealth
:45:09. > :45:12.In some cases, felt all the more strongly
:45:13. > :45:17.because they are immigrants themselves.
:45:18. > :45:19.Simon Woolley is here, director of Operation Black Vote.
:45:20. > :45:22.Why should Commonwealth citizens have a right
:45:23. > :45:29.I think it is great that they can because it adds to the debate,
:45:30. > :45:34.We are saying, ensure you're registered to vote,
:45:35. > :45:37.because that is critically important and get involved in this debate
:45:38. > :45:40.There is a lot at stake in terms of who we are,
:45:41. > :45:42.what we stand for, and what we are saying to both
:45:43. > :45:46.the Remain and Leave campaigners is where does equality,
:45:47. > :45:49.and specifically race equality, lie in this debate,
:45:50. > :45:57.Some people say, should the last vestiges of empire have a role
:45:58. > :46:01.If you're here and paying your taxes, if you're
:46:02. > :46:05.part of the discussion, you should be able to
:46:06. > :46:08.exercise your franchise and have a say in this debate.
:46:09. > :46:13.We have got until 7th June to make sure you're registered to vote.
:46:14. > :46:17.It takes about five minutes to do so, but it is important that you do,
:46:18. > :46:19.because otherwise you have no voice in this debate.
:46:20. > :46:22.What is the rate of Commonwealth citizens...?
:46:23. > :46:25.Commonwealth citizens have a record of registering to vote that's less
:46:26. > :46:35.They do not actually feel that enfranchised anyway?
:46:36. > :46:37.We are saying that you are enfranchised,
:46:38. > :46:40.you are part of the community, you are paying your taxes,
:46:41. > :46:42.so get involved and have a voice, but in the first instance,
:46:43. > :46:46.Karen Buck, what do you think about this, whether they should
:46:47. > :46:50.The franchise for the referendum is broadly, with small amendments,
:46:51. > :46:51.the general election franchise, based on precedent.
:46:52. > :46:54.Different from the local election franchise.
:46:55. > :46:56.It's different from the local elections where EU citizens
:46:57. > :46:59.Does this trouble you, this difference between this?
:47:00. > :47:03.I think it would be very hard to justify having a referendum
:47:04. > :47:05.on a different franchise to the general election.
:47:06. > :47:08.It would open up quite a different set of political problems.
:47:09. > :47:12.I think it is right we are doing it in this way.
:47:13. > :47:15.But I absolutely agree with Simon, the critical thing here is,
:47:16. > :47:17.well, two critical things, one is registration.
:47:18. > :47:19.We've seen 800,000 people drop off the electoral register
:47:20. > :47:22.with the move towards individual electoral registration.
:47:23. > :47:24.Probably David Cameron may be regretting pushing individual
:47:25. > :47:34.We need to make sure that everybody uses their vote, but particularly
:47:35. > :47:37.younger voters, who are less likely to vote in all elections.
:47:38. > :47:41.I agree the franchise should stay the same.
:47:42. > :47:44.I cannot see a good reason for changing it.
:47:45. > :47:48.If anything, Simon is doing a good job in getting the message out.
:47:49. > :47:50.We have an immigration policy at the moment that discriminates
:47:51. > :47:58.We can say "welcome" to any EU citizen who comes through our border
:47:59. > :47:59.but we cannot stop or control immigration
:48:00. > :48:07.That is discrimination in any other language.
:48:08. > :48:11.Why not keep the franchise as it is, and let everyone have an equal say?
:48:12. > :48:15.It seems fair and the right thing to do.
:48:16. > :48:18.What do you say to those people who say, why don't people who have
:48:19. > :48:22.lived here from an EU country, been settled here for a long time,
:48:23. > :48:23.maybe had children here, who've been working,
:48:24. > :48:29.paying taxes, why do they not have the same rights?
:48:30. > :48:31.We are keeping the franchise as it is when it comes
:48:32. > :48:38.I do not see the argument as to why that should be changed.
:48:39. > :48:40.If those citizens want to take up dual nationality,
:48:41. > :48:44.We are very open in that respect as a country,
:48:45. > :48:47.Certain countries on the Continent, such as Austria,
:48:48. > :48:53.As a dual nationality citizen, you would be entitled to vote.
:48:54. > :48:58.Simon Williams, do you have any concerns at all?
:48:59. > :49:02.We get a sense of it in the film, of the feelings about immigration
:49:03. > :49:05.from the different groups here, and how much you think
:49:06. > :49:11.In short, are Commonwealth voters feeling resentful of the EU?
:49:12. > :49:17.Some people say they want their families to come here a lot
:49:18. > :49:24.We feel like we're British and European, and we want
:49:25. > :49:30.On both sides of the argument, there is this diversity
:49:31. > :49:36.We were just talking about a bloc of Commonwealth countries,
:49:37. > :49:40.but presumably within them there is huge diversity.
:49:41. > :49:42.Is there any sense in which we can stereotype
:49:43. > :49:48.I think that might be quite an interesting angle.
:49:49. > :49:53.The critical issue, for many people, particularly black and minority
:49:54. > :49:55.ethnic communities, is about race equality.
:49:56. > :50:02.Will I be afforded housing, good education, and not
:50:03. > :50:06.The question for these two, Remain and Leave,
:50:07. > :50:12.is what is the agenda for race equality?
:50:13. > :50:15.How will it be best delivered, whether we are in or out?
:50:16. > :50:17.We have heard lots about prosperity, lots about immigration,
:50:18. > :50:19.but less about equality, and about people feeling
:50:20. > :50:33.What I would say is we would start by saying, look, we're not
:50:34. > :50:37.going to discriminate against people from India, people from Pakistan,
:50:38. > :50:39.people from the West Indies, the Caribbean, in coming to this
:50:40. > :50:47.Time and time again I hear complaints, why is it we are finding
:50:48. > :50:49.it so difficult to get visas into the UK?
:50:50. > :50:52.The reason is we are discriminating against them because we are members
:50:53. > :50:55.of the EU, we are favouring EU members coming in.
:50:56. > :50:59.That is a real issue for a lot of people.
:51:00. > :51:01.It is sending a very negative message out
:51:02. > :51:07.There is lots of discussion about this, people saying,
:51:08. > :51:09.if we stop the Europeans, we will welcome those
:51:10. > :51:17.I am not saying we stop it, I'm saying we have a fair system.
:51:18. > :51:21.It does not discriminate between one region or the next,
:51:22. > :51:27.That is the point about equality, not that we will stop everyone
:51:28. > :51:30.Let's have equality and fairness across the immigration system.
:51:31. > :51:35.Immigration is not the only issue that Simon is referring to in terms
:51:36. > :51:41.I am extremely clear, that within Europe, a number
:51:42. > :51:45.of the achievements that have been made in terms
:51:46. > :51:47.of employment protection, in terms of the rights that people
:51:48. > :51:51.are concerned about, at work, and indeed,
:51:52. > :51:54.although not part of the EU, people think it is, but the European
:51:55. > :51:57.Convention On Human Rights legislation, it has very much been
:51:58. > :52:04.On the Remain side, people worry that, black people,
:52:05. > :52:06.minority communities, worry about the rise of the far
:52:07. > :52:11.Some say, why should we be involved in Europe
:52:12. > :52:14.when there is so much racism on there?
:52:15. > :52:17.We say, these are the discussions that we have got to face.
:52:18. > :52:20.The first step is to register to vote, get involved and put
:52:21. > :52:26.Simon, thanks very much for coming in.
:52:27. > :52:29.London's new mayor this week turned on the old one.
:52:30. > :52:32.Sadiq Khan claimed Boris Johnson had left the cupboard bare in terms
:52:33. > :52:35.of plans for new affordable housing, and had failed to release research
:52:36. > :52:37.on the effect of air pollution on school children.
:52:38. > :52:39.What we have seen is that some of the reports,
:52:40. > :52:43.if you like, the good stuff, was published,
:52:44. > :52:47.but the full report was not, so Londoners were not aware
:52:48. > :52:50.that there are 430 schools in areas where the nitrogen dioxide breaches
:52:51. > :52:58.Londoners were not aware that four-fifths of the schools
:52:59. > :53:01.in the most deprived areas, which means some of the most
:53:02. > :53:03.vulnerable communities in London suffering the worst air quality
:53:04. > :53:05.Clearly, because of the mess Boris Johnson has left,
:53:06. > :53:12.It sounds like an excuse to not build the 50,000 homes that
:53:13. > :53:16.you promised that you would be building every year?
:53:17. > :53:20.The first thing I did when I got to City Hall was to ask City Hall
:53:21. > :53:23.officials to do an urgent audit so I could see how things are.
:53:24. > :53:26.Does that mean you will have to re-evaluate your targets?
:53:27. > :53:29.I am quite clear in my mind, half of new homes have to be
:53:30. > :53:32.affordable, but I also need to be clear it will not happen overnight.
:53:33. > :53:36.Karen Buck, are you now clear about whether he can achieve 50 000
:53:37. > :53:38.homes in this first term, sorry, the 50,000 a year
:53:39. > :53:43.He has a great plan for doing it, he has got a great team that he s
:53:44. > :53:47.If anybody can do this, it will be Sadiq.
:53:48. > :53:50.As he rightly said, when we look closely,
:53:51. > :53:53.we can see that Boris Johnson, in his last year,
:53:54. > :54:00.What should we read into the fact he seems to be having difficulty
:54:01. > :54:03.saying it now he is elected, yes, I will do 50,000 a year?
:54:04. > :54:07.He is saying that you're not going to start building 50,000
:54:08. > :54:11.These are things that involve the assembly of land packages,
:54:12. > :54:21.He is clear that the 50% of development target is to stay,
:54:22. > :54:26.We have no choice but to turn around from a lamentable record
:54:27. > :54:30.on affordable house building and achieve that for Londoners.
:54:31. > :54:32.Zac Goldsmith and others pointed out in the campaign, 50%
:54:33. > :54:37.You have got to get the numbers up, then 50% of those being
:54:38. > :54:45.Developers have an interest in developing.
:54:46. > :54:48.They are in that job in order to be able to make money
:54:49. > :54:53.They have an interest in making sure this is going ahead.
:54:54. > :54:56.We are now also seeing something of a chill creeping into the top end
:54:57. > :55:02.That obviously means we will have to look very hard at how we can work
:55:03. > :55:04.closely with developers to ensure we are building
:55:05. > :55:06.not just luxury homes, but the homes that
:55:07. > :55:11.ordinary Londoners want to have to buy and rent.
:55:12. > :55:13.John, Sadiq Khan has a look, he has a word
:55:14. > :55:16.with the officials at City Hall says, this is the promise I have
:55:17. > :55:19.made, I hope you will help me be able to deliver that,
:55:20. > :55:22.and he is told there are fewer than 5,000 affordable homes
:55:23. > :55:25.Has he got a point, the cupboard is bare?
:55:26. > :55:28.I think that last year was a special case in point.
:55:29. > :55:32.It was the end of the spending review, as Karen well knows.
:55:33. > :55:38.If you look at the eight years in total, I think the figure
:55:39. > :55:41.is claimed to be 100,000 affordable homes were actually built.
:55:42. > :55:42.I think the figures substantiate that.
:55:43. > :55:45.Let's put the figures to one side for a second.
:55:46. > :55:47.You get politicians throwing figures at each other all day long.
:55:48. > :55:53.I hope he builds more than 50,0 0 affordable homes, because that is
:55:54. > :55:58.What I want Sadiq to do now, instead of having a pop at everybody
:55:59. > :56:01.from Donald Trump and everybody else, to roll up his sleeves
:56:02. > :56:03.and concentrate on the job of being mayor.
:56:04. > :56:07.Yes, let's deliver 50,000 affordable homes and more.
:56:08. > :56:16.He also revealed there had been a report into 430 primary schools
:56:17. > :56:18.in the London area, nearly a quarter, that were in
:56:19. > :56:20.areas which exceeded nitrogen dioxide levels.
:56:21. > :56:24.Is that OK, for a mayor to selectively put out parts
:56:25. > :56:26.of a report, Boris Johnson, but not this key figure?
:56:27. > :56:31.I have always believed in being open and honest in my time in politics.
:56:32. > :56:41.If there is a case to answer, I am sure Boris will answer it.
:56:42. > :56:44.I understand the report was making the point that the air is getting
:56:45. > :56:47.Whether there has been concealment about certain areas,
:56:48. > :56:53.It might look like a cheap political point from Sadiq Khan given that,
:56:54. > :56:55.as John said, the indications, the projections were that things
:56:56. > :56:57.were getting better, albeit those 430 schools
:56:58. > :56:59.Dozens of them are in my constituency.
:57:00. > :57:04.It is an issue I have been taking up over recent years.
:57:05. > :57:08.In the end, people are breathing in foul air now and they are dying now.
:57:09. > :57:11.Whatever progress is being made is very slow.
:57:12. > :57:15.We were criticising Boris Johnson, and I think Sadiq is still doing it,
:57:16. > :57:20.for going much more slowly than we needed to do.
:57:21. > :57:22.We need to get that ultralow emissions zone in,
:57:23. > :57:24.and as Sadiq has said, expand it, bring it
:57:25. > :57:26.in earlier and make some real progress.
:57:27. > :57:35.Now for the rest of the news in 60 Seconds.
:57:36. > :57:37.Lea Bridge station in East London, which was closed to passengers
:57:38. > :57:45.Passengers will be able to reach either Stratford or Tottenham Hale
:57:46. > :57:47.in five minutes, with northbound services continuing to Bishop
:57:48. > :57:55.A 24-hour strike by Southern Rail conductors caused hundreds of trains
:57:56. > :57:58.to be cancelled on one of the busiest routes in the UK
:57:59. > :58:02.The walkout was part of a dispute over the role of guards.
:58:03. > :58:03.A second 24-hour strike is being solidly supported,
:58:04. > :58:11.Sadiq Khan has lent his support to the Garden Bridge,
:58:12. > :58:18.so long as it is more accessible to all Londoners.
:58:19. > :58:20.The newly elected London mayor said the planned ?175 million footbridge
:58:21. > :58:23.linking Temple with the Southbank must be a genuinely public
:58:24. > :58:29.The mayor, who had previously questioned the project's
:58:30. > :58:35.transparency, insisted on amendments in exchange for his support.
:58:36. > :58:39.Not an awful lot of time, Karen but do you think this bridge
:58:40. > :58:45.If there is going to be public money in it, it needs to open
:58:46. > :58:47.itself up to the public, that is absolutely right.
:58:48. > :58:54.If it was up to me, it would not be my top priority.
:58:55. > :58:56.If it was up to you, would you do it?
:58:57. > :58:59.If I ruled the world, I am not sure that I would do.
:59:00. > :59:01.Why do you think Sadiq Khan likes the concept?
:59:02. > :59:07.It has been assembled, it has got planning permission,
:59:08. > :59:14.What Sadiq appears to be doing, and I think that is right,
:59:15. > :59:18.is to say, if there is public money, that leverage has to be applied now
:59:19. > :59:23.to make sure it is opening up more than was originally planned.
:59:24. > :59:26.Do you accept that as well, this question is about public money,
:59:27. > :59:30.If it is going to cost more, we should not do it?
:59:31. > :59:33.If I had money, if I was mayor, I would be looking at affordable
:59:34. > :59:38.If the bridge is going to go ahead, the key issue is public access.
:59:39. > :59:42.It would not be my top priority, I would put money
:59:43. > :59:55.If that is going to go ahead and public money is involved,
:59:56. > :59:58.public money equals public access, and you've got to make sure
:59:59. > :00:01.it is therefore the public as well as serving a useful purpose
:00:02. > :00:02.of actually being able to get across.
:00:03. > :00:04.To you both, thank you very much indeed.
:00:05. > :00:09.And with that, it is back to you, Andrew.
:00:10. > :00:12.Treasury warnings on Brexit, is Labour on course for 2020,
:00:13. > :00:14.and are there enough women in the referendum campaign?
:00:15. > :00:24.And joining me and my panel of so-called experts,
:00:25. > :00:30.is the former Deputy Leader of the Labour Party Harriet Harman.
:00:31. > :00:40.Wellcome, it is nice to see you again. The Treasury has already told
:00:41. > :00:44.us how bad the economy will be in 2030, but nobody really knows. This
:00:45. > :00:49.is about, in their view, the immediate impact on interest rates,
:00:50. > :00:54.mortgages, jobs, house prices, before the autumn is out. This I
:00:55. > :01:00.would suggest is politically more significant? Yes, and it is
:01:01. > :01:06.absolutely the Remain campaign's biggest howitzer which is why they
:01:07. > :01:13.are firing it now. This is the last time they can deploy the full mast
:01:14. > :01:16.ranks of the government's resources into the campaign. Most people
:01:17. > :01:19.disagree passionately in this campaign about whether over the
:01:20. > :01:24.long-term the British economy will prosper or not outside the EU.
:01:25. > :01:28.Pretty much everybody, I think apart from Boris Johnson has admits it
:01:29. > :01:36.there might be some short-term problems. It is the same with
:01:37. > :01:41.retail. We have heard from the Prime Minister today. And mortgages,
:01:42. > :01:45.smacking people as hard as they can in their pockets. Even Boris Johnson
:01:46. > :01:50.said there would be a fall because he hopes it will go up. People may
:01:51. > :01:57.be nervous that when they get onto that tick it does not stop falling.
:01:58. > :02:01.It will be a difficult one for the Leave campaign? Guess, and I am
:02:02. > :02:06.picking up a lot of concern in the various Brexit camps. They look as
:02:07. > :02:10.if they have conceded the argument on the economy. Of course, they
:02:11. > :02:13.emphatically argue the opposite direction is that we can do even
:02:14. > :02:16.better out, but there is a lot of concern among those who want to
:02:17. > :02:20.leave, that those who are representing them in these
:02:21. > :02:23.campaigns, are not putting the argument strongly enough and are
:02:24. > :02:28.almost backing of it which is why we are hearing arguments about Turkey
:02:29. > :02:32.and immigration and other things. I think Leave has to come out really
:02:33. > :02:38.strongly and rebut what the Treasury is saying point by point, whether it
:02:39. > :02:42.is on food prices, and there is a compelling argument that the Common
:02:43. > :02:45.Agricultural Policy example massively distorts prices. Food may
:02:46. > :02:52.not be more expensive when we come out so we need to rebut it line by
:02:53. > :02:55.line. -- they need to rebut it. The polling suggests if you are worried
:02:56. > :02:59.about the economy you will more likely to vote Remain, if you are
:03:00. > :03:08.more worried about public services, you will be more likely to vote
:03:09. > :03:12.Leave. This will create a sense of economic uncertainty? Yes, and it
:03:13. > :03:16.will be interesting if they make a GDP prediction. We are talking about
:03:17. > :03:20.food prices and employment but will they predict a technical recession
:03:21. > :03:25.in GDP which I imagine will happen if we vote to leave. The Bank of
:03:26. > :03:36.England has admitted that is a possibility. I can think of people
:03:37. > :03:39.who are very high up in British public life who are downplaying
:03:40. > :03:42.their view about how bad the GDP crisis will be in the short-term. I
:03:43. > :03:45.agree with Isobel, it is strange to concede the short-term economic
:03:46. > :03:50.argument. You cannot say here is the reality of a short-term recession.
:03:51. > :03:57.In return, there is the prospect of a longer-term economic benefit which
:03:58. > :04:03.realises in 2030. Labour does not normally think very much of Tory
:04:04. > :04:06.forecasts. Will you accept this We are very concerned about jobs and
:04:07. > :04:09.prices and we are very concerned about the cavalier sense that it
:04:10. > :04:16.might be a bit of a problem in the short-term but it will be fine in
:04:17. > :04:19.the long-term, two reasons. Obviously, the Treasury forecasts
:04:20. > :04:23.will be very well worth picking through and looking through and will
:04:24. > :04:27.be very persuasive. As far as the short-term is concerned, we are
:04:28. > :04:32.trying to find our way out of a global financial crisis, and the
:04:33. > :04:37.idea that it would not cause major uncertainty and instability to leave
:04:38. > :04:43.an economic union that we have been part of four decades, it is a
:04:44. > :04:49.no-brainer even before tomorrow You think the short-term is a problem if
:04:50. > :04:54.we vote to leave? It will be a problem about jobs, a problem about
:04:55. > :04:59.prices. Why on earth would we want to try and distance ourselves from
:05:00. > :05:02.this biggest trading block of 5 0 million people. Why would we want to
:05:03. > :05:07.struggle for keeping our head above water in the longer term when we are
:05:08. > :05:11.in the EU as we are? I think it is cavalier from people who are not
:05:12. > :05:17.worried about prices and to feel happy that their jobs are fine,
:05:18. > :05:23.let's make this bid for freedom I think it is reckless. Reckless? I
:05:24. > :05:27.think there is an accession among the Remain camp and it is
:05:28. > :05:32.interesting that Harriet brings this up, constantly bringing up trade
:05:33. > :05:36.associations. We can trade without trade deals. We talk about the
:05:37. > :05:42.Remain camp focuses highly on the importance of the trade deals have,
:05:43. > :05:45.but we are a service economy run airily, and those trade deals do not
:05:46. > :05:50.cover the service sector. We can trade but if you look without trade
:05:51. > :05:54.deals, that means paying tariffs, for example. If you look at the food
:05:55. > :05:57.in our supermarkets which comes in from Europe, they can put tariffs on
:05:58. > :06:04.that to make it cost more, and why wouldn't they, if we opt out of that
:06:05. > :06:08.free trade area? They would not put tariffs on food coming into Britain.
:06:09. > :06:14.We might do that, but they would not do that. We would take off the
:06:15. > :06:19.tariffs from the food that comes from America, Australia and New
:06:20. > :06:24.Zealand. We are in an established range of trading which has been
:06:25. > :06:30.going on for decades and has seen food prices going down. That is a
:06:31. > :06:39.big issue if you are on a low income. Why would we take that risk?
:06:40. > :06:43.The former chief executives of supermarkets, and they have not got
:06:44. > :06:47.any skin in the game because they are former chief executives, they
:06:48. > :06:50.have said because of these established arrangements, prices are
:06:51. > :06:54.likely to go up. We will hear more of that this week with the Treasury
:06:55. > :07:00.report which is coming out tomorrow morning. Talking about the economy,
:07:01. > :07:03.let's hear a word from John McDonnell, the Shadow Chancellor
:07:04. > :07:09.about Labour in the economy. This is what he had to say yesterday.
:07:10. > :07:12.Our whole society could do so much better than we are at the moment.
:07:13. > :07:15.What we have attempted over the last eight months is to lay out
:07:16. > :07:17.the framework by which Labour can win the next election,
:07:18. > :07:20.and then set about the fundamental business of transforming capitalism.
:07:21. > :07:25.We should aim at nothing less than that.
:07:26. > :07:33.So, socialism in one parliament that must excite you? He is talking
:07:34. > :07:39.about a new economic policy which will talk about fairness and
:07:40. > :07:44.investment and he says we will be on a listening exercise as they put the
:07:45. > :07:50.flesh on the bones. He is talking about remaking capitalism, not
:07:51. > :07:55.reforming it, not liberalising it, remaking capitalism. Is that
:07:56. > :08:01.realistic? I think there is a bit of remaking to be done, for example,
:08:02. > :08:09.remaking the responsibilities of big businesses to repay their taxes do
:08:10. > :08:13.we think it is all sorted? It is certainly not. Every government
:08:14. > :08:18.tells me they will put more apprentices and you look carefully
:08:19. > :08:21.and they don't really. This government, a lot of the apprentices
:08:22. > :08:25.are not what the Germans or Austrians would regard as
:08:26. > :08:33.apprentices. Chasing that tax seems to be in a never-ending chase as you
:08:34. > :08:37.try and close the loopholes. Because it has not necessarily been done so
:08:38. > :08:40.far, and all credit to Margaret Hodge and the Public Accounts
:08:41. > :08:45.Committee in exposing all of this, does not mean it cannot be done We
:08:46. > :08:50.could have lots more investment if people paid their tax and we could
:08:51. > :08:54.have much more prosperity in the economy, but he is recognising we
:08:55. > :09:00.have to convince people that they can trust us on the economy. Are you
:09:01. > :09:04.happy with the direction he is taking you? I think the principles
:09:05. > :09:09.he is setting out is right. We got the wrong answer in the general
:09:10. > :09:12.election last time and we got to be the opposition rather than the
:09:13. > :09:16.government, and we have to get a different answer next time and that
:09:17. > :09:20.means convincing the public. It is about setting up a framework that
:09:21. > :09:24.also making sure we are listening to what the public's concerns are about
:09:25. > :09:30.us, not what we want to hear but what they are saying. You don't
:09:31. > :09:35.think there are enough women involved in the referendum campaign?
:09:36. > :09:40.Would it not be fair to say that it is really the Remain side which has
:09:41. > :09:45.the female problem. The Leave site has Gisela Stuart, Kate Hoey, pretty
:09:46. > :09:56.Patel, Penny Mordaunt and so on It is your side which is lacking the
:09:57. > :10:03.women -- pretty Patel. There is hardly anything between either side.
:10:04. > :10:09.Really? Could you do a list like that? One of the things we are
:10:10. > :10:14.saying is actually, being in the EU has helped back-up women at work. It
:10:15. > :10:19.is paradoxical, and it might seem unlikely, but the EU has been a
:10:20. > :10:23.strong friend to women at work and these directives which governments
:10:24. > :10:27.always do not like, either Labour or the Tories don't like the idea of
:10:28. > :10:31.directives from Europe, but they have been backing up part-time
:10:32. > :10:36.workers... I understand that but I am looking at the fact that you have
:10:37. > :10:42.said there are not enough female voices in the campaign. Do you agree
:10:43. > :10:49.with that? I would agree with you. The Leave women are pretty loud
:10:50. > :10:57.Where is Theresa May? She is the single biggest female voice and she
:10:58. > :11:01.is almost mute. The idea that the Leave side is in some post feminist
:11:02. > :11:05.political nirvana is for the absolute birds. And I think of the
:11:06. > :11:11.Leave side I think of Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage and I cannot bear
:11:12. > :11:22.to think about it. I just gave you a list. And Iain Duncan Smith. Five
:11:23. > :11:25.prominent women campaigners. Are you saying they are a post feminist
:11:26. > :11:32.haven? No, I don't think they would know what that is. I am trying to
:11:33. > :11:36.work out if your side has more of a problem, but let's move on. You say
:11:37. > :11:41.the EU is a beacon of gender equality. I would like you to look
:11:42. > :11:46.at this. These are all the top jobs in the European Union. Something
:11:47. > :11:51.probably strikes you about that Where is the gender equality in the
:11:52. > :11:56.EU in the top seven jobs? That is why it is an irony that actually,
:11:57. > :12:05.the directives and European court judgments have backed up women at
:12:06. > :12:07.work. Except in the EU itself? But if you look at the Treaty of Rome,
:12:08. > :12:11.which was very much ahead of its time, saying you have to pay women
:12:12. > :12:18.equally and treat women equally .. It is do as I say, not as I do. It
:12:19. > :12:22.looks like a boys' club up there. And the other thing that strikes me
:12:23. > :12:28.about this row of men. Who are these people? Could you recognise all
:12:29. > :12:33.those people? Could you even recognise one of them? I do know who
:12:34. > :12:38.they are and I don't like the fact they are all men... That tells you
:12:39. > :12:43.about the EU and our sovereignty. No, it does not. The directives from
:12:44. > :12:46.Europe have backed up women at work, part-timers, low-paid women, women
:12:47. > :12:53.having babies. If our own government would have done it, more better Why
:12:54. > :12:58.haven't they read the directives? I don't know who they are. That speaks
:12:59. > :13:02.for itself. They are the people you think should be running us and you
:13:03. > :13:05.don't know who they are! I am talking about the facts of the
:13:06. > :13:13.impact for women at work about us being in the EU and our rights on
:13:14. > :13:19.maternity and equal pay. The directives have helped us even when
:13:20. > :13:24.our own government have not. They do not seem to have got the message.
:13:25. > :13:31.You have picked them at random! No, they are not! Bayard the top seven
:13:32. > :13:40.jobs in the EU. Ranks to all our guests, good to see Harry it back.
:13:41. > :13:44.-- thanks to all our guests, good to see Harry it back. Remember, if it
:13:45. > :13:47.is Sunday, it is the Sunday Politics, unless it is the Whitsun
:13:48. > :13:53.bank holiday.