:00:38. > :00:43.Just over a fortnight to go, and the referendum debate is getting
:00:44. > :00:46.serious, with Boris Johnson and John Major the latest senior
:00:47. > :00:51.We'll be discussing all the week's big developments,
:00:52. > :00:59.We've hit the road with both campaigns, and we've got two big
:01:00. > :01:04.I'll be joined by Labour's John Prescott,
:01:05. > :01:07.And, if you haven't decided how to vote yet,
:01:08. > :01:12.One MP who's only now finally reached a decision will reveal live
:01:13. > :01:17.on air if he's backing leave or remain.
:01:18. > :01:20.In the capital, it's the UK's financial powerhouse -
:01:21. > :01:33.how will that EU decision affect the City of London?
:01:34. > :01:36.And, in a week in which one poll showed the public are three times
:01:37. > :01:39.more likely to trust the word of a random stranger
:01:40. > :01:44.And, in a week in which one poll showed the public are three times
:01:45. > :01:47.I'm joined by a political panel with the full authority
:01:48. > :01:50.It's Sam Coates, Isabel Oakeshott, and Janan Ganesh.
:01:51. > :01:52.We'll try and find some random strangers to replace
:01:53. > :01:56.them next week, and see if you notice the difference!
:01:57. > :02:00.So, in case you weren't sure just how high the stakes were in this
:02:01. > :02:02.referendum campaign, you only have to look at this
:02:03. > :02:04.morning's papers, and listen to former Prime Minister John Major
:02:05. > :02:07.taking aim at his fellow Tories in the Leave campaign.
:02:08. > :02:10.The current Prime Minister David Cameron tried to get his party
:02:11. > :02:12.to avoid so-called blue-on-blue attacks, in the hope of keeping
:02:13. > :02:17.It seems like John Major didn't get the message,
:02:18. > :02:19.as he accused the Leave campaign of squalid deceit,
:02:20. > :02:23.and called Boris Johnson a court jester.
:02:24. > :02:28.Here he is, talking to Andrew Marr earlier.
:02:29. > :02:33.This is going to affect people, their livelihoods, their future
:02:34. > :02:36.for a very long time to come, and if they are given honest,
:02:37. > :02:37.straightforward facts and they decide to leave,
:02:38. > :02:40.then that is the decision the British people take.
:02:41. > :02:46.But if they decide to leave on the basis of inaccurate
:02:47. > :02:47.information, inaccurate information known to be inaccurate,
:02:48. > :02:56.Now, I may be wrong, but that is how I see their campaign.
:02:57. > :02:59.And this is so important, for once, I'm not prepared to give the benefit
:03:00. > :03:04.of the doubt to other people, I'm going to say
:03:05. > :03:08.And I think this is a deceitful campaign, and in terms
:03:09. > :03:10.of what they are saying about immigration, a really
:03:11. > :03:16.They are misleading people to an extraordinary extent.
:03:17. > :03:18.So, that was former Prime Minister John Major, but,
:03:19. > :03:22.when Boris Johnson took to the same sofa, he studiously declined
:03:23. > :03:25.to return fire when asked if those words were part of an attempt
:03:26. > :03:28.by the Remain campaign to "take him out".
:03:29. > :03:31.Whether it is or not, this morning I think that...
:03:32. > :03:32.I'm rather with John McDonnell this morning...
:03:33. > :03:38.He says that there's too much of this sort of blue-on-blue action,
:03:39. > :03:40.and what he wants to hear is the arguments,
:03:41. > :03:56.Boris failing to take the bait. As I said, John major hadn't got the
:03:57. > :04:00.memo from down the street, that was a joke.
:04:01. > :04:05.The fact was John Major was sent into the show by Downing Street to
:04:06. > :04:08.beat up on Boris. Is that an example, a testament to have rattled
:04:09. > :04:12.they are? My own evidence is they are very
:04:13. > :04:25.rattled, they got extremely twitchy about something I tweeted on Friday
:04:26. > :04:30.night where I suggested a prominent Remain person was appearing on sky.
:04:31. > :04:36.This shows the level of nerves in Downing Street. The kind of language
:04:37. > :04:39.being exchanged between senior figures in the party raises very
:04:40. > :04:43.serious questions about how the party comes together.
:04:44. > :04:48.We had Michael Gove this morning saying he thinks the party can come
:04:49. > :04:53.together on June the 24th. Of course they can, but I doubt it will be on
:04:54. > :04:58.June the 24th. It is quite remarkable for a
:04:59. > :05:03.Conservative Downing Street to get a former Conservative prime ministers
:05:04. > :05:07.to come onto the BBC, the main Sunday morning news show, Andrew
:05:08. > :05:10.Maher, and to beat up on the man who is currently favourite to be the
:05:11. > :05:17.Tory leader. That is almost unprecedented.
:05:18. > :05:21.John Major put his credibility on the line with phrases like squalid,
:05:22. > :05:27.depressing. He was going for Boris Johnson.
:05:28. > :05:31.There is a clear, strategic imperative behind what John Major
:05:32. > :05:34.was saying, he is trying to reduce Boris Johnson's credibility,
:05:35. > :05:39.currently the most popular and trusted figure in the EU debate
:05:40. > :05:43.They are worried and trying to harm that.
:05:44. > :05:47.So, they are going for the man. The Big Questions this morning for
:05:48. > :05:53.Downing Street, and it is right to point fingers at Downing Street for
:05:54. > :05:57.pushing this kind of intervention, stiffening John Major's spines when
:05:58. > :05:59.it turned out Boris was going to be on the programme I think he had a
:06:00. > :06:07.bubble. That is my understanding. The danger
:06:08. > :06:14.is that Downing Street are encouraging this, to send this
:06:15. > :06:18.debate into a Tory blue-on-blue battle.
:06:19. > :06:20.The effect may well be to deter Labour voters.
:06:21. > :06:27.The people who want Britain to stay inside you need to do two things, to
:06:28. > :06:33.make sure Tory voters vote for Remain, and turn out the Remain vote
:06:34. > :06:36.against Labour and SNB voters. The question is whether having all
:06:37. > :06:45.the headlines dominated by this blue-on-blue fight -- SNP.
:06:46. > :06:49.It means people shrug and give up. It is more than just blue-on-blue.
:06:50. > :06:55.From what John Major said this morning, it seems Downing Street is
:06:56. > :07:00.prepared to trash the Tory brand, their own brand, in desperation to
:07:01. > :07:05.win on June the 23rd. John Major describing one of the
:07:06. > :07:08.likely people to be the ex-Tory leader -- next Tory leader as a
:07:09. > :07:12.court jester. Saying, if you put Michael Gove
:07:13. > :07:17.Boris Johnson comic Iain Duncan Smith in charge of the NHS, is like
:07:18. > :07:23.giving your pet hamster to a buy them. A second Tory poster. How can
:07:24. > :07:28.you not conclude they are so desperate about June the 23rd they
:07:29. > :07:34.are prepared to trash their own party's brand.
:07:35. > :07:39.Short of using the B word when he thought the Microsoft when talking
:07:40. > :07:42.to Michael Brunson, it was very vociferous.
:07:43. > :07:46.It is true Boris Johnson did not retaliate in the interview. John
:07:47. > :07:51.Major and number ten would argue that retaliation was made very
:07:52. > :07:54.early, over the past few weeks, the Prime Minister's integrity on some
:07:55. > :08:01.questions had been brought into doubt by people in his own party.
:08:02. > :08:03.Without defending number ten's instructions to John Major if they
:08:04. > :08:09.exist, they feel aggrieved because of attacks during the campaign.
:08:10. > :08:13.Looking at the footage of John Major, I detect sincere emotion on
:08:14. > :08:18.his part, rather than being a mouthpiece.
:08:19. > :08:23.I did argue that he didn't mean what he said.
:08:24. > :08:25.As Sam was saying, he didn't want to come on.
:08:26. > :08:27.This is such an important development, it tells us about the
:08:28. > :08:31.remain camped. Now, staying with the EU referendum,
:08:32. > :08:34.today we're going to try Two well-informed campaigners,
:08:35. > :08:38.the Conservative MEP Dan Hannan and the Labour MP Emma Reynolds
:08:39. > :08:43.will be interrogating each other I'll mostly just be sitting
:08:44. > :08:47.back to watch. A short while ago in our green room,
:08:48. > :08:51.they tossed a coin to see Emma is the winner, or loser,
:08:52. > :08:58.depending on your point of view so they'll be the first
:08:59. > :09:02.to be cross-examined. They took a break in campaigning
:09:03. > :09:04.to make their pitch I'm Daniel Hannan, Conservative
:09:05. > :09:13.Member of the European Parliament, and I'm inviting you to fire me
:09:14. > :09:16.on the 23rd of June. First, because leaving
:09:17. > :09:20.is the modern choice. The European Union
:09:21. > :09:22.is a relic of the 1950s, when regional blocs
:09:23. > :09:28.looked like the future, but that world has been overtaken
:09:29. > :09:30.by technological change. Second, because it's
:09:31. > :09:36.the cheaper choice. Instead of handing Brussels
:09:37. > :09:39.?20 billion a year gross, 10 billion net, we'll have our money
:09:40. > :09:46.to spend on our priorities. We will take back the sublime right
:09:47. > :09:59.to hire and fire our own lawmakers. In a necessarily uncertain world,
:10:00. > :10:03.we will have taken back control to mitigate any risks ourselves
:10:04. > :10:06.instead of passing power to people who may not
:10:07. > :10:10.have our interests at heart. And fifth, because it's
:10:11. > :10:13.the confident choice. We are a merchant,
:10:14. > :10:16.maritime, global nation, the fifth largest economy
:10:17. > :10:21.on the planet, one of five permanent seat-holders
:10:22. > :10:24.on the UN Security Council. We have the world's most
:10:25. > :10:26.widely studied language, before we are able to run our own
:10:27. > :10:34.affairs in our own interests? Trading and cooperating with friends
:10:35. > :10:36.and allies on every continent, including Europe,
:10:37. > :10:42.but living under our own laws. So, here are Dan Hannan
:10:43. > :10:45.and Emma Reynolds. And, just to explain the rules,
:10:46. > :10:47.you've just five You can only ask questions,
:10:48. > :11:01.or only give answers. Nine out of ten economists and a
:11:02. > :11:05.string of organisations say leaving the EU would damage the economy
:11:06. > :11:09.make families worse off, cause a recession, could you name an
:11:10. > :11:13.independent economic force -- economic forecaster who has said the
:11:14. > :11:15.opposite? Five former chancellors are
:11:16. > :11:22.campaigning to leave, plenty of economists, ...
:11:23. > :11:28.Gerard Lyons has said, although in favour of leaving, if we were to
:11:29. > :11:31.vote to leave, the two years, it would cause great uncertainty and
:11:32. > :11:34.depress the economy. He hasn't said that. He said that in
:11:35. > :11:41.a report. He hasn't. You will have to do
:11:42. > :11:45.better than that. He is strongly of the view leaving means walking away
:11:46. > :11:50.from a declining trade bloc and being able to leap up... And the
:11:51. > :11:58.uncertainty? All these international bodies. .
:11:59. > :12:04.Hang on. The IMF, these are people who shared the outlook,
:12:05. > :12:09.international bureaucrats, they share the lifestyle, the tax-free
:12:10. > :12:19.lifestyle, they shared the basic outlook. Through euros, because that
:12:20. > :12:22.is the kind of circles they live in. The Institute for Fiscal Studies is
:12:23. > :12:28.widely respected, they have said by leaving we could blow a black hole
:12:29. > :12:32.of up to ?40 billion in our public finances, meaning less money for
:12:33. > :12:39.public services. They were feeding in the same basic
:12:40. > :12:41.data they got from these IMF, OECD organisations.
:12:42. > :12:45.They are independent. If I didn t think we would be better off as a
:12:46. > :12:52.whole, I would not be inviting viewers to make me redundant. The
:12:53. > :12:55.reason I am confident I will have a job in the private sector doing
:12:56. > :13:00.something more productive than regulating everyone else is we
:13:01. > :13:05.shouldn't be linked to the world is Oates only collapsing trade bloc.
:13:06. > :13:12.There are huge opportunity -- the world's. We are the only one that
:13:13. > :13:18.hasn't grown. Another question, you have described
:13:19. > :13:21.the NHS as the biggest 60 year mistake, why can the public trust
:13:22. > :13:27.the Leave campaign when they don't want the NHS to be in public hands?
:13:28. > :13:31.I said the mistake was having a nationalised system rather than a
:13:32. > :13:34.pluralist one as they have in almost every other industrialised country.
:13:35. > :13:39.The referendum is an instruction to the Government to get us out.
:13:40. > :13:44.It does not mean you are electing the boat Leave campaign, but giving
:13:45. > :13:51.a mandate to get us out on terms and in a timescale said to our allies
:13:52. > :13:56.across the control -- the channel but in our interests.
:13:57. > :14:02.We are really looking at a decision to leave and asking people not to
:14:03. > :14:06.trust any other politician but the British electorate.
:14:07. > :14:08.The weight of economic evidence is on the remain camped, you would
:14:09. > :14:12.admit that at least. Can you name a country that has
:14:13. > :14:17.access to the single market but does not accept free movement?
:14:18. > :14:23.The EU side free trade agreements with Colombia...
:14:24. > :14:27.You said access to the single market, every country in Europe has
:14:28. > :14:32.access to the single market. There is a free trade area from
:14:33. > :14:38.non-EU Iceland... Why therefore does Ireland and
:14:39. > :14:42.Norway faced agricultural tariffs of over 13%?
:14:43. > :14:47.Ireland and Norway? Icelands and Norway.
:14:48. > :14:53.Yes, they have wisely chosen to stay out of the Common Agricultural
:14:54. > :14:58.Policy. Their farmers are strongly in favour of staying out of the CIP.
:14:59. > :15:02.If we did the same thing, instead of being doubly penalised as a net food
:15:03. > :15:06.importer with efficient farms, paying more in, getting less out, we
:15:07. > :15:13.can have a British farming policy tailored to suit our needs.
:15:14. > :15:18.In Northern Ireland, you suggested the border would remain open between
:15:19. > :15:22.the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. How can you therefore
:15:23. > :15:25.guarantee that if you want to stop free movement, that European
:15:26. > :15:30.migrants would not come through that border? You are leaving the back
:15:31. > :15:35.door open. Illegal migrants could come through that border today but
:15:36. > :15:40.do not. They could come through legally. We have an agreement which
:15:41. > :15:44.includes the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands, which are not in
:15:45. > :15:50.the, it long predates the EU. The point is it is possible now, don't
:15:51. > :15:55.take anyone's word for it, we have a common travel area with EU and
:15:56. > :15:59.non-EU states, no-one in Dublin or Westminster is suggesting that is a
:16:00. > :16:02.problem. We have only three seconds to go, tough and time in the
:16:03. > :16:08.interests of fairness! It is the dunnock Emma to be cross-examined,
:16:09. > :16:13.let's look at her pitch to undecided voters.
:16:14. > :16:16.We are stronger, safer and better off in Europe.
:16:17. > :16:17.Families benefit from lower prices, more jobs,
:16:18. > :16:20.Businesses benefit from a European single market
:16:21. > :16:26.Workers benefit from employment protection.
:16:27. > :16:29.We trade more with the EU than any other country.
:16:30. > :16:34.from companies like Jaguar Land Rover here in the West Midlands
:16:35. > :16:37.And by staying in the EU, we will attract even more investment
:16:38. > :16:40.and create more jobs for the next generation.
:16:41. > :16:42.In the 21st century, the challenges that our country face
:16:43. > :16:45.no longer stop at the White Cliffs of Dover.
:16:46. > :16:46.Cross-border crime and terrorism, climate change -
:16:47. > :16:48.by working with our European partners,
:16:49. > :16:55.we can meet these challenges successfully.
:16:56. > :17:00.predicts that damage will be done to our economy if we leave.
:17:01. > :17:03.And the Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney,
:17:04. > :17:14.It would create a black hole in our public finances,
:17:15. > :17:19.meaning less money for our public services, like schools and the NHS.
:17:20. > :17:30.for more jobs, prosperity and security.
:17:31. > :17:32.As before, Dan, you now have five minutes
:17:33. > :17:36.to put your questions. Off you go.
:17:37. > :17:44.Thank you. As you know, the EU is not a settled dispensation, it is
:17:45. > :17:47.undergoing the Euro crisis, the Schengen crisis, migration problems,
:17:48. > :17:54.and it is evolving - what are the greatest risks of Remain? Well, you
:17:55. > :17:59.would keep your job! You seem to want to lose your job. I don't think
:18:00. > :18:03.that there are great risks of as remaining, because we have the best
:18:04. > :18:06.of both worlds. We are not in the eurozone, we have the pound as our
:18:07. > :18:11.currency, like eight other member states retain their currency, but we
:18:12. > :18:15.have unfettered access to the single market, and no other country... What
:18:16. > :18:19.can you tell us about budget contributions in ten or 15 years'
:18:20. > :18:29.time? I know what our budget contributions are today, not what is
:18:30. > :18:32.on the side of your bus. How many migrants might be resettled here?
:18:33. > :18:36.More came from outside of the EU than inside. Can you tell us how
:18:37. > :18:40.many bailouts we might be dragged into? Zero. So if we vote to stay
:18:41. > :18:45.in, even though we had a written guarantee in 2014 that which would
:18:46. > :18:58.not be dragged into a bailout, you trust them this time? You say that
:18:59. > :19:03.but you are a MEP. I am asking the questions. I think the ministers go
:19:04. > :19:10.to the Council of Ministers meetings, 97% of the votes won, we
:19:11. > :19:13.are not run by Eurocrats. You cannot answer any of the questions about
:19:14. > :19:18.how it might look if we stay in so there are risks both ways. Is it
:19:19. > :19:22.safer to take back control to mitigate risks ourselves, or save a
:19:23. > :19:27.passing control to people who may not have our interests at heart I
:19:28. > :19:31.do not know why you mistrust our European partners to such a great
:19:32. > :19:34.extent, because the challenges we face in the 21st century, climate
:19:35. > :19:39.change, cross-border crime, terrorism, those are challenges we
:19:40. > :19:43.share with our partners. Let me ask another question, in our country we
:19:44. > :19:46.have an example of a very high-minded, radical tradition that
:19:47. > :19:52.has been very good at dispersing power from oligarchs to the general
:19:53. > :19:56.population. As an heiress to the suffragettes and the chartists, do
:19:57. > :19:59.you feel comfortable backing an elitist, anti-democratic project
:20:00. > :20:03.where supreme power is wielded by people immune to the ballot box
:20:04. > :20:06.where we pay more to wealthy French farmers than poor African farmers,
:20:07. > :20:10.and where we have inflicted joblessness and misery on tens of
:20:11. > :20:14.millions of people around the Mediterranean while Eurocrats like
:20:15. > :20:19.around in private jets? Does that seem comfortable as a person on the
:20:20. > :20:23.centre-left? I feel comfortable because I feel the EU has been a
:20:24. > :20:26.force for good in terms of employment protection, in a way a
:20:27. > :20:30.Conservative governments never has, comfortable because we elect our
:20:31. > :20:34.MEPs, and we elect a government that sends ministers to Brussels to have
:20:35. > :20:38.the final say on European regulations, and I feel comfortable
:20:39. > :20:42.as a British MP that over the vast majority of policy areas, whether
:20:43. > :20:48.health, housing, education, policing, we have confidence in
:20:49. > :20:51.those areas. So Lord Rose, the leader of the remainder campaign
:20:52. > :20:55.says Vote Leave for higher wages, Paddy Ashdown says we will get
:20:56. > :21:00.cheaper food, don't you think there are benefits to the majority of low
:21:01. > :21:06.and medium income people from having that boosting household income? On
:21:07. > :21:10.the contrary. So they are wrong I think they are wrong, people in my
:21:11. > :21:17.constituency, low and middle incomes, they will suffer the most
:21:18. > :21:22.if manufacturing is eliminated, according to the Brexit Economist,
:21:23. > :21:24.the Bank of England governor has predicted a recession, and it will
:21:25. > :21:30.be people I reserve present who will be worse after macro, not people
:21:31. > :21:37.earning high income jobs. -- worse off. What is the strongest argument
:21:38. > :21:41.for voting Leave? I don't think there is one. None at all? This is
:21:42. > :21:46.one of the things that puzzles a lot of people trying to make up their
:21:47. > :21:51.mind. You do not think there are any benefits of staying in the EU. It is
:21:52. > :21:54.not my job to tell you them, but I can see them! People make an issue
:21:55. > :21:59.out of being so broad-minded and reasonable, but they struggle to see
:22:00. > :22:03.the other point of view at all. They cannot put themselves in the shoes
:22:04. > :22:07.of the people that the EU is not benefiting, which is the vast
:22:08. > :22:10.majority. There is a lot of scaremongering on your side about
:22:11. > :22:14.what might happen, because if we stay in, we will pretty much have
:22:15. > :22:19.the status quo, access to a market where we trade more than with the
:22:20. > :22:27.rest of the world, 44% of our exports go to the rest of the EU.
:22:28. > :22:30.Our trade unions represent four million people who think we should
:22:31. > :22:34.stay. I would rather this on to them than you. Do you think the European
:22:35. > :22:40.Union is a growing, successful scheme that people would join today
:22:41. > :22:44.if we were not already a member Yes no? Yes. We ended there, I thank you
:22:45. > :22:47.both for that. So, this week both sides of this
:22:48. > :22:49.referendum have really The big set-piece TV
:22:50. > :22:53.grillings have begun. Senior Conservatives have been
:22:54. > :22:55.knocking lumps out of each other. And the Labour machine seems finally
:22:56. > :22:58.to have creaked into life. We'll be talking about
:22:59. > :22:59.all of that today. But, first, our Adam's been
:23:00. > :23:01.on the buses to see where this
:23:02. > :23:03.campaign is heading. There's livestock,
:23:04. > :23:05.there's Boris Johnson, and there's a man
:23:06. > :23:09.with a stuffed animal. Well, I suppose I could have
:23:10. > :23:13.accidentally bought the cow This was the week the referendum
:23:14. > :23:21.started to feel a bit more like a general election
:23:22. > :23:24.campaign, and not just because of
:23:25. > :23:25.the photo op. Vote Leave unveiled
:23:26. > :23:27.a spending commitment, cutting the VAT on domestic fuel,
:23:28. > :23:30.and a whole new immigration system - And here Boris told farmers
:23:31. > :23:36.that their subsidies would be safe, even if the UK left the EU -
:23:37. > :23:39.not everyone was convinced. There's no authority, no power,
:23:40. > :23:47.he's just a person that's walked in here
:23:48. > :23:50.and said what he's got to say. You could say it, I could
:23:51. > :23:54.say it, I can promise. First of all,
:23:55. > :23:59.where are your wellies? Are you getting a bit
:24:00. > :24:03.of grief from the farmers? No, there's a lot of
:24:04. > :24:05.support, a lot of support, and a lot of people
:24:06. > :24:09.coming up to me and saying, "We are with you,
:24:10. > :24:11.we want to come out." Some people, obviously, need
:24:12. > :24:15.reassurance about the subsidies He left - without offering me
:24:16. > :24:21.a lift, so I caught the train, to Birmingham,
:24:22. > :24:24.and the Labour in campaign. But this week Jeremy Corbyn
:24:25. > :24:30.made a big speech after it emerged many Labour supporters didn't know
:24:31. > :24:34.the party was in favour of the EU. Do you think that was
:24:35. > :24:37.a great speech from JC? Jeremy's journey, if you like,
:24:38. > :24:43.which mirrors the journeys that many have made on this,
:24:44. > :24:49.he was a Eurosceptic in '75, and I think he's more powerful
:24:50. > :24:54.for that. Our journey took us to a building
:24:55. > :24:58.site to see investment from abroad that the Remain campaign claim
:24:59. > :25:01.is linked to our EU membership. Of course, with foreign
:25:02. > :25:05.money comes foreigners. How are you going to vote?
:25:06. > :25:09.No, come out. Why's that? Because of all the immigrants
:25:10. > :25:12.and things like that. Too many of them now
:25:13. > :25:16.coming into this country. Well, inevitably,
:25:17. > :25:18.I've ended up in one of these This week, the Remain campaign
:25:19. > :25:22.got some high visibility backing from foreign leaders -
:25:23. > :25:24.in Spain, the Netherlands, the former Foreign Secretary
:25:25. > :25:32.David Miliband. Some people might say
:25:33. > :25:35.that you live in America now, you are one of these high-profile
:25:36. > :25:38.foreigners coming over and lecturing us on what to do,
:25:39. > :25:42.what do you say to that? I'm a British voter,
:25:43. > :25:44.and I'm able to speak with passion about my own country,
:25:45. > :25:46.this is my home country, and although it's not where I live
:25:47. > :25:49.and work at the moment, I still feel that there is
:25:50. > :25:52.a real obligation to speak not just to the economic issues
:25:53. > :25:54.and the security issues, but also the foreign-policy
:25:55. > :25:56.issues, frankly. to ride on Britain Stronger
:25:57. > :26:00.in Europe's luxury coach, or hop onto Nigel Farage's
:26:01. > :26:02.double-decker. You wait ages for a referendum
:26:03. > :26:06.battle bus to come along, So, you heard Alan Johnson there
:26:07. > :26:13.defending Jeremy Corbyn's latest intervention in the referendum
:26:14. > :26:15.campaign, despite critics claiming that Labour hasn't exactly been
:26:16. > :26:17.full-throated in its campaign Well, the former Deputy Prime
:26:18. > :26:23.Minister and veteran Labour campaigner John Prescott
:26:24. > :26:27.seems to agree. He says in his newspaper column
:26:28. > :26:28.today that his party's message
:26:29. > :26:42.hasn't been getting through. John Prescott, good morning to you.
:26:43. > :26:47.Good morning. You say in your column that the Conservatives have hijacked
:26:48. > :26:52.the campaign, why has Labour allowed that to happen? It is a good point,
:26:53. > :26:56.I suggested in the paper that it seems almost to have been the
:26:57. > :27:00.strategy, blue on blue destroying the Tory party, hopefully, we will
:27:01. > :27:04.have to wait and see! We saw that in the broadcasts this morning, but
:27:05. > :27:08.where is Labour? It seems as if we are just enjoying the fight between
:27:09. > :27:14.them, but that is not putting our position. Labour maybe in the
:27:15. > :27:18.European Union, I support being in it, but we're not putting the
:27:19. > :27:24.arguments, and so when you see on a bus there, for example, on Boris's
:27:25. > :27:28.bus, ?350 million a week to put into the health service, this is from a
:27:29. > :27:34.government that reduced from 9% of GDP the average in Europe to 7% and
:27:35. > :27:40.when they go on with a Labour politician in this way, Gisela, the
:27:41. > :27:43.Tories get the publicity, and they are in the background. We are not
:27:44. > :27:48.putting down the record of the Tories, they cannot do it because
:27:49. > :27:52.they are in a joint agreement on a bus about Europe. Let me just get
:27:53. > :27:57.another question in, as a result of everything you say, are you worried
:27:58. > :28:03.that you are failing to galvanise the Labour vote, do get it out to
:28:04. > :28:07.vote for Remain on the 23rd? Absolutely! Labour people want to
:28:08. > :28:11.hear Labour people talking about this government's record, whether
:28:12. > :28:15.they are four in or out, they carried out a record that is
:28:16. > :28:23.basically destroying our health service, housing was halved in
:28:24. > :28:25.billions, and now they say they will bring it. Michael Gove says all
:28:26. > :28:29.these terrible bankers, why didn't the vote with Labour to stop the
:28:30. > :28:33.bonuses for them? He didn't, he doesn't, they are hypocritical, we
:28:34. > :28:36.must show that Labour has strong values, we believe in social
:28:37. > :28:45.justice. When you have heard Tories talking about being social justice?!
:28:46. > :28:50.Look Labour, at Labour. Maybe Labour voters are confused, when you look
:28:51. > :28:54.at Jeremy Corbyn's pro EU speech, he spent as much time attacking the
:28:55. > :29:00.Tories and EU policies. Good on Jeremy! By Sea said the bad things
:29:01. > :29:05.predicted by Vote Leave work addicted by those who say we should
:29:06. > :29:10.remain, that all the scare stories were just myth-making and prophecies
:29:11. > :29:14.of doom. Is it any surprise that Labour voters are confused? Yes but
:29:15. > :29:19.I do not think we should talk too much about what we should do, Jeremy
:29:20. > :29:24.is not a passionate man, he does not scream and shout like me, does he?!
:29:25. > :29:28.But to that extent, our people want to see, and this is what has
:29:29. > :29:34.happened to politics, people speak and do believe what they are saying!
:29:35. > :29:39.On both sides, Cameron's side, Boris Johnson, they are saying things that
:29:40. > :29:45.they did not do in government, which Labour oppose, and they are against
:29:46. > :29:50.social justice. We want a Labour Europe, different to them, not, we
:29:51. > :29:54.all believe in Europe, let's travel on the same bus! No wonder people
:29:55. > :29:57.are confused, get a strong Labour voice, and glad Jeremy said what he
:29:58. > :30:03.said, but point out what these beggars did in government!
:30:04. > :30:13.What about the confusion, even Damian McBride caught on Twitter
:30:14. > :30:13.offering policy tips to the Brexit campaign.
:30:14. > :30:42.Labour voters seem to be confused. I don't say that the Europe they
:30:43. > :30:46.want is the one I want. I took part in the last referendum. Despite the
:30:47. > :30:52.Tories not giving us a referendum and taking us in 1975 into the
:30:53. > :30:57.common market. I do believe, I was against a political Europe. In fact,
:30:58. > :31:01.I turned down a job with Jim Callaghan to be commissioner. On
:31:02. > :31:05.that ground, I thought that is where they were heading.
:31:06. > :31:13.I can't say it has stopped. What we argued then was for a wider Europe
:31:14. > :31:16.so we didn't move along the federal Europe case. That is still an
:31:17. > :31:18.argument to be fought for, I feel strongly, Labour does. I'm not sure
:31:19. > :31:23.the Tories pursued it. Sadiq Khan, tested Jarrell, Harriet
:31:24. > :31:28.Harman, they have appeared with Tories, including the Prime
:31:29. > :31:36.Minister. You refused, but last night you were appearing on Russia
:31:37. > :31:39.Today, a Putin propaganda channel, with Ken Livingstone, he has been
:31:40. > :31:46.suspended from your party, have you thought this through?
:31:47. > :31:51.Of course. I don't go in joint party operations, I never have. I didn't
:31:52. > :31:56.when I fought the Labour in 197 . I am the same. I am not saying they
:31:57. > :32:01.can't or shouldn't. We are saying the Labour vote is crucial and there
:32:02. > :32:04.is confusion as to the Labour position.
:32:05. > :32:09.Standing alongside Tory politicians, the survey has recently shown most
:32:10. > :32:17.of the speeches that come out of that are Tory spokesmen. 48% Tory,
:32:18. > :32:28.8% Labour. Why are we confused? Like in Scotland, if you appear alongside
:32:29. > :32:29.them bring on Europe, you better start telling people what you
:32:30. > :32:32.disagree about. Jeremy is trying to do that. I
:32:33. > :32:35.wouldn't do it, it adds to the confusion. If you can't get the
:32:36. > :32:36.Labour vote out in big numbers, are you worried you could lose this
:32:37. > :32:41.referendum? Yes. I want every Labour person in
:32:42. > :32:47.to vote. I fought on the last one thinking we would win on the
:32:48. > :32:51.referendum, and we lost, mainly it was particularly women, they get
:32:52. > :32:56.concerned about the long-term, their children, security, I think that is
:32:57. > :33:05.what defeated as in 1975. Seriously, I think it will go the other way. We
:33:06. > :33:11.need to be talking about the big powers. It is not Britain on its
:33:12. > :33:16.own, it is global powers, America, India, China, who will decide the
:33:17. > :33:21.issue about crime, immigration, security. We will be a little island
:33:22. > :33:27.shouting out, don't you recognise we are a big power. But we will have no
:33:28. > :33:32.say in a global decision. Jeremy Corbyn has hinted he might
:33:33. > :33:36.bring Ed Miliband into the Shadow Cabinet. What about you, are you
:33:37. > :33:41.available? I have done my bit for the Labour
:33:42. > :33:46.Party, except shouting on the side as I do. That is his decision. I
:33:47. > :33:54.want to see a united party. One of the things is people are confused
:33:55. > :34:02.because of these changes. Where does Labour stand? Start talking about it
:34:03. > :34:05.and be clearer on immigration. We have been cowards, the whole
:34:06. > :34:13.political establishment has avoided the argument. That is a global
:34:14. > :34:17.solution. There will be more migration coming from African
:34:18. > :34:22.countries which have no water or food because of climate change. This
:34:23. > :34:26.is not a temporary problem but a global problem and needs a global
:34:27. > :34:29.solution and not a little country on the side shouting and staying out of
:34:30. > :34:32.it. Thank you.
:34:33. > :34:34.Now, even if plenty folks are still undecided,
:34:35. > :34:37.you might think most Mps will have made their mind up as to how they'll
:34:38. > :34:40.It's only two-and-a-half weeks to go, after all.
:34:41. > :34:43.But, according to our research, there at still 26 undecided Tory
:34:44. > :34:47.Well, we're going to reduce that number by one today,
:34:48. > :34:50.as the Conservative MP Johnny Mercer is here to reveal for the first time
:34:51. > :35:04.What is your decision? The first thing to say is, like a lot of
:35:05. > :35:08.people, being out on the doors of Plymouth, we are disappointed by the
:35:09. > :35:11.level of debate. Even today.
:35:12. > :35:17.What is your decision? It is important to get this across.
:35:18. > :35:20.But tell me, leave or remain? Two Government ministers saying the
:35:21. > :35:23.Government is not telling the truth about the economy which has upset
:35:24. > :35:30.people. In terms of this referendum, it is
:35:31. > :35:35.clear we should remain, not a single economic expert has come out and
:35:36. > :35:38.said this will do things for our economy, our jobs.
:35:39. > :35:41.If you look at what this garment has delivered in places like Plymouth
:35:42. > :35:47.around jobs, the single biggest factor in improving people's life
:35:48. > :35:51.chances, it has done good things. It is the economic case.
:35:52. > :35:56.And a security case. Why do the people of Plymouth seem not
:35:57. > :36:00.convinced quite a recent polls say they were largely for Leave.
:36:01. > :36:04.A poll I have been running has come out and said that.
:36:05. > :36:10.When this debate started, I said this was an issue, not the issue. It
:36:11. > :36:15.has become clear. I did not think we would vote to leave the EU. This is
:36:16. > :36:20.a vote of singular importance to this country. People have begun to
:36:21. > :36:24.forget we need to get on with Government on June 24.
:36:25. > :36:31.That may be the case. But do you think you can win on the economic
:36:32. > :36:33.arguments? With the economic arguments, there are single clear
:36:34. > :36:41.points. On the economy, the people who
:36:42. > :36:45.always feel the worst affected, it is always the most vulnerable.
:36:46. > :36:49.Always those who file like a desperate struggle. My area of
:36:50. > :36:54.Plymouth is still categorised by the EU as a deprived area in parts. They
:36:55. > :36:59.cannot take that shock. It is OK for others to say we can go to this
:37:00. > :37:04.nirvana. The truth is the same people are affected.
:37:05. > :37:07.Why do 74% in your constituency say...
:37:08. > :37:12.That is a very small poll. But it is indicative of the mood,
:37:13. > :37:15.74%. People will feel more passionate
:37:16. > :37:19.about leaving because for some people this is a single issue. They
:37:20. > :37:23.have been looking for a reason to come out and leave the EU. I think
:37:24. > :37:30.the vast majority do not want to leave. You are looking at where we
:37:31. > :37:35.are now it is not perfect. We are on this trajectory. Do we throw it away
:37:36. > :37:41.for a nirvana no one can quite lay their hands on. Could the most
:37:42. > :37:45.vulnerable in the UK who rely on a job, on the NHS, public service
:37:46. > :37:49.funding, could they withstand that shock? I can look them in the eye
:37:50. > :37:54.and say, I went this based on something that sounded like a great
:37:55. > :37:58.idea but I could not go for it. It has loads of problems.
:37:59. > :38:01.Why take so long? Thinking about Europe is not something I got into
:38:02. > :38:07.politics today about. I have spoken to a lot of people. It
:38:08. > :38:13.would be naive to suggest there are reasons why people want to leave. On
:38:14. > :38:17.balance, it is a clear case. Society is judged by how it looks after its
:38:18. > :38:23.vulnerable. We have to remain part of the EU to continue to do that. It
:38:24. > :38:25.isn't perfect. Thank you for coming on and telling
:38:26. > :38:28.us how you will vote on June 23 We say goodbye to viewers
:38:29. > :38:32.in Scotland who leave us now Coming up here in 20 minutes,
:38:33. > :38:36.the Week Ahead, when we'll be talking about the referendum
:38:37. > :38:39.and the TV debates with the veteran Conservative backbencher David
:38:40. > :38:40.Davis. First, though, the Sunday
:38:41. > :38:54.Politics where you are. And with me for the duration
:38:55. > :39:03.Stephen Timms, Labour MP for East Ham, and Matthew Offord,
:39:04. > :39:05.Conservative MP for Hendon. Could we just start with quick first
:39:06. > :39:11.thoughts on the EU referendum Matthew, what's at stake
:39:12. > :39:14.for your constituents? What's at stake is the future
:39:15. > :39:16.of the United Kingdom, I want to come out of Europe,
:39:17. > :39:23.I believe that we can flourish, we don't need the European Union,
:39:24. > :39:26.and some of the measures and directives are stifling our economy,
:39:27. > :39:30.so I'd like to see us come out Are your constituents
:39:31. > :39:33.asking you that question, how will it affect us locally,
:39:34. > :39:38.and what do you say to them? Well, they are asking me questions,
:39:39. > :39:41.how will it affect locally. Things like, for example,
:39:42. > :39:43.air quality, that's certainly an issue that Defra
:39:44. > :39:48.and the Government are working on. So we don't need Europe to tell us
:39:49. > :39:50.about environmental conditions, because actually we've got quite
:39:51. > :39:53.a good track record. I saw something recently that said
:39:54. > :39:56.we only have good bathing water around our coastline
:39:57. > :39:57.because of the EU. It's something that the Government
:39:58. > :40:04.has always been working upon, and that will not change overnight
:40:05. > :40:07.if we decide to leave the EU. Stephen, what's at stake
:40:08. > :40:09.for your constituents? It's the jobs, for my constituents,
:40:10. > :40:11.that are at stake. Thousands of people living
:40:12. > :40:14.in my borough in Newham, commuting into the City every day,
:40:15. > :40:18.working in financial services. If we were to leave the EU,
:40:19. > :40:21.it would be a big threat I talk every Saturday on my street
:40:22. > :40:35.stall in East Ham High I would say there is a fairly even
:40:36. > :40:39.split at the moment between those in favour of staying in,
:40:40. > :40:42.and those who want to come out. Certainly, the question of jobs
:40:43. > :40:46.weighs heavily on people's minds. What about local
:40:47. > :40:49.investment in your area? There is a big project,
:40:50. > :40:51.the Asian Business Port, The plan is, it is a Chinese
:40:52. > :40:58.developer wants to provide European headquarters space for Chinese banks
:40:59. > :41:01.and others who want to address 30,000 jobs, a big difference to us
:41:02. > :41:10.in East London. The reality I think is,
:41:11. > :41:14.if by the time those companies choose whether to move in, we are no
:41:15. > :41:17.longer in the European market, That is the scale of the threat
:41:18. > :41:23.we face to jobs in London Let us continue on that idea,
:41:24. > :41:30.to critics, is where the great recession started,
:41:31. > :41:33.but the bonuses never stop. To its fans, it is the
:41:34. > :41:35.lifeblood of the capital. Where does the city
:41:36. > :41:37.stand on leaving the EU? What would life look
:41:38. > :41:39.like if that happened? Finance, London's biggest,
:41:40. > :41:48.most lucrative, Lots of people watching aren't
:41:49. > :41:55.going to be overly concerned with the future of a load
:41:56. > :41:58.of bankers, lawyers, hedge fund But there is no question having
:41:59. > :42:05.financial services in London is one reason why our capital
:42:06. > :42:10.is the richest part of the UK one of the very
:42:11. > :42:13.richest in the world. That construction site is giving
:42:14. > :42:17.jobs to electricians and There are deliveries to be made
:42:18. > :42:23.taxis to ride, shops and more. Many at the top of the City
:42:24. > :42:26.say leaving the EU is the lobbying group
:42:27. > :42:32.for financial services big firms and say there
:42:33. > :42:33.is 84% of those who run
:42:34. > :42:42.major international 95% of them say it is
:42:43. > :42:48.mission-critical to have access Only 4% said the UK
:42:49. > :42:54.should leave the EU. Lloyd's of London is the global hub
:42:55. > :43:04.of specialist insurance. Billions of pounds change
:43:05. > :43:10.hands here every year. They say being part of the EU is one
:43:11. > :43:15.of the reasons for their success. The one thing that
:43:16. > :43:17.nearly all City firms that want to stay in
:43:18. > :43:19.the EU have in common is they are concerned
:43:20. > :43:20.about That they have the right
:43:21. > :43:24.to sell their products across the EU in the same way
:43:25. > :43:31.that they would here in Britain We rely on the passporting
:43:32. > :43:33.right the EU provides us into the EU where we can treat
:43:34. > :43:36.the EU's 27 member states Secondly, very importantly,
:43:37. > :43:46.we trade with the benefit of the bilateral agreements the EU have
:43:47. > :43:52.with other third party countries. It is not just Lloyd's
:43:53. > :43:54.who are worried, banks like HSBC say
:43:55. > :43:56.they would move staff aboard. Others have donated
:43:57. > :44:00.to the Remain campaign. One estimate doing the rounds from
:44:01. > :44:04.PricewaterhouseCoopers is 100,0 0 financial services jobs could be
:44:05. > :44:13.lost by the end of the decade. Does all of this amount
:44:14. > :44:15.to what the Leave There are powerful forces conspiring
:44:16. > :44:19.to make people afraid of leaving EU, when the truth is, they say
:44:20. > :44:24.that things will be absolutely fine. One man who thinks Project Fear
:44:25. > :44:26.is in full effect is Mark Littlewood,
:44:27. > :44:29.Director General of the Institute America sells its financial
:44:30. > :44:35.services and insurance to the EU in roughly speaking
:44:36. > :44:37.about the same proportion The USA has managed that
:44:38. > :44:44.without joining the single currency and without
:44:45. > :44:46.considering becoming a member of the If the USA can achieve that
:44:47. > :44:50.on the upside, I don't see any According to some of
:44:51. > :45:01.those who want to leave, when freed from the shackles
:45:02. > :45:05.of EU regulation, that much better
:45:06. > :45:11.suits our interests. The French have a veto
:45:12. > :45:13.over all legislation David Cameron went
:45:14. > :45:17.to Europe to try to negotiate a similar veto
:45:18. > :45:18.for financial services, and they told him he couldn't
:45:19. > :45:24.possibly have one. With financial services
:45:25. > :45:27.picking up such a large part of the economy,
:45:28. > :45:34.the impact of this referendum for a single sector could
:45:35. > :45:38.have huge implcations not just for the Square Mile
:45:39. > :45:43.but the whole of the country. Joining us now,
:45:44. > :45:46.Ruth Lea supports Leave, and Mark Boleat, leader of the
:45:47. > :45:50.London City Corporation, economist, Why, and what do you think the worst
:45:51. > :46:00.scenario is of leaving? Why is what John Nelson
:46:01. > :46:04.from Lloyd's explained. It is access to the entire
:46:05. > :46:07.European Union market It is not possible
:46:08. > :46:13.from outside the EU. For many businesses,
:46:14. > :46:15.it is not relevant. For a lot, it is,
:46:16. > :46:18.particularly the larger ones. It would be a threat to jobs
:46:19. > :46:22.if we were not in the EU. The worst case is if Britain
:46:23. > :46:28.was outside the EU with no access to the single market other
:46:29. > :46:31.than would be available If we could negotiate
:46:32. > :46:35.continued access, with a say in the rules,
:46:36. > :46:37.that would not be acceptable but the least worst outcome
:46:38. > :46:40.if we chose to leave. The prospects for the City
:46:41. > :46:45.are very great whether we are in or out
:46:46. > :46:49.of the EU. If we didn't leave,
:46:50. > :46:51.we could negotiate a good agreement to have continued access
:46:52. > :46:55.to the European market. The chairman of UBS,
:46:56. > :46:58.former president He said Britain should get
:46:59. > :47:06.a very favourable agreement. When it comes to passporting, I have
:47:07. > :47:08.little doubt the British Government would sit down with the other
:47:09. > :47:12.members of the EU and agree some regulatory system
:47:13. > :47:21.which is a quasi-passport which would continue trade
:47:22. > :47:23.very much as it is today. How is it that all the major
:47:24. > :47:26.financial institutions in the City are saying they want to stay?
:47:27. > :47:31.We have been here before. I remember how many times
:47:32. > :47:35.I was told because I was anti-Europe because of economic reasons,
:47:36. > :47:38.if we didn't join the euros, One of the reasons the British
:47:39. > :47:50.and European split negotiate an agreement if it is
:47:51. > :47:54.in their interests, and of the banks and financial institutions,
:47:55. > :47:59.including the EU banks, 75 of them are here in London
:48:00. > :48:02.because London is the unique They need the talent pool
:48:03. > :48:10.here, the global reach. If there were not an agreement,
:48:11. > :48:13.they would suffer, that is not Mark, everyone keeps
:48:14. > :48:20.on citing the euro. I am told I am one of these people,
:48:21. > :48:26.which I certainly wasn't. it certainly didn't include
:48:27. > :48:33.the City of London Corporation. We are talking about whether
:48:34. > :48:39.Britain stays in the EU or not. If we can get the arrangement
:48:40. > :48:43.described, two of his points, Any equivalence wouldn't
:48:44. > :48:49.be negotiated, The EU says this is what you have
:48:50. > :48:56.to do, Britain would have to do it. There would be uncertainty
:48:57. > :49:02.until we achieve that. If Britain votes to leave
:49:03. > :49:06.on the 23rd of June, the assumption would be that we
:49:07. > :49:09.would not be in the single market with access to it
:49:10. > :49:11.until someone can demonstrate that would not be the case.
:49:12. > :49:14.That would take a period of time. About this equivalence,
:49:15. > :49:21.there's something called MiFID II. That will have
:49:22. > :49:24.equivalence provisions. I don't want to get technical.
:49:25. > :49:27.I am lost already. We would be leaving the EU
:49:28. > :49:37.2020 at the earliest. This system of equivalence
:49:38. > :49:39.I was talking about will already be in place.
:49:40. > :49:42.Why leave the EU? Not because of economic reasons
:49:43. > :49:46.but democratic reasons. PwC say there could be
:49:47. > :49:52.a loss of 100,000 jobs? I don't believe
:49:53. > :49:55.any of those figures. I always think economic
:49:56. > :49:58.forecasters are there That goes for George Osborne's
:49:59. > :50:07.?4300 hit on households et cetera. As an impartial economist
:50:08. > :50:12.looking down. I always knock my profession,
:50:13. > :50:15.you know that. To the point, if you believe
:50:16. > :50:21.that trade will continue then I don't see any reason why
:50:22. > :50:27.there should be a loss of jobs. The other thing, where
:50:28. > :50:32.are the growth markets going to be? It is in the non-EU which is where
:50:33. > :50:37.the growth in future will come from. 100,000 jobs was an estimate from
:50:38. > :50:40.PwC, is yours at the corporation higher or lower or in that ballpark?
:50:41. > :50:44.Do you have fears for jobs? There have been different studies
:50:45. > :50:55.on the impact. I wouldn't say they are the same
:50:56. > :50:58.but they are broadly similar. the exact impact would depend
:50:59. > :51:02.on the terms negotiated. At the very least, there would be
:51:03. > :51:06.a period of years of uncertainty before we would know
:51:07. > :51:10.what the arrangements were. The equivalence regimes,
:51:11. > :51:13.when they are negotiated territory by territory, come in years
:51:14. > :51:18.after the single market arrangement. on the assumption
:51:19. > :51:23.it might turn out all right. Let us bring in
:51:24. > :51:27.our elected representatives. Matthew, you will have seen
:51:28. > :51:32.and known and fully understood the value of the City, not just
:51:33. > :51:37.to the capital but the country. Would you want to take the risk
:51:38. > :51:40.You say there is a risk. Firstly, Ruth is right,
:51:41. > :51:43.this isn't just about big business but about us choosing our own
:51:44. > :51:46.democracy and deciding for ourselves what we want to do
:51:47. > :51:49.and how we want to have The second point is, Ruth also made,
:51:50. > :51:58.the amount that we trade with financial to Europe
:51:59. > :52:02.has reduced by over 70% The amount with America
:52:03. > :52:10.is about the same. We shouldn't just be looking
:52:11. > :52:12.towards Europe but elsewhere. Particularly with some
:52:13. > :52:14.the emerging economies. So we would not need
:52:15. > :52:20.to be part of the EU. In fact, we would be better
:52:21. > :52:27.if we weren't, You take another view?
:52:28. > :52:31.There is a huge risk to jobs here. Ruth makes the point it will take
:52:32. > :52:34.three years for the arrangements It is that uncertainty in itself
:52:35. > :52:42.which is such a huge risk to jobs. Who will invest in financial
:52:43. > :52:44.services in the UK if they don't know what the basis
:52:45. > :52:47.for their future trading with Europe is going to be?
:52:48. > :52:50.We won't know. Will we need visas
:52:51. > :52:53.to visit France and Germany? Will they need to apply to visit us?
:52:54. > :52:56.We won't know. People won't invest,
:52:57. > :52:59.and we will lose jobs. The vice chairman of
:53:00. > :53:04.the Chinese Development Bank says he wants to invest here
:53:05. > :53:06.simply because the UK with a centre of time zones
:53:07. > :53:10.between America and Asia. We have a pool of people,
:53:11. > :53:19.solicitors and other professions, able to work with the markets
:53:20. > :53:22.and a good legal framework. If they don't know for a few years
:53:23. > :53:25.the basis for their ability to trade from the UK
:53:26. > :53:30.into Europe, they won't invest. threaten us with the EU
:53:31. > :53:43.imposing more regulations? Well, one of the things that
:53:44. > :53:48.disappoints me about what this government has done about Europe
:53:49. > :53:51.is the reduction in the number of British civil servants
:53:52. > :53:53.working in Brussels. This government hasn't engaged
:53:54. > :53:58.sufficiently with the mechanisms of the Commission,
:53:59. > :54:00.the Parliament, and the Council We will need, after the referendum,
:54:01. > :54:04.assuming we vote, as I hope we do, to stay in, we'll need to engagement
:54:05. > :54:07.more vigorously with those debates that are happening in order
:54:08. > :54:09.that we can deal with risks like that one,
:54:10. > :54:11.which would threaten us, if changes were made that
:54:12. > :54:15.were damaging to our interests. But of course,
:54:16. > :54:17.if we come out of the EU, we won't any longer have the ability
:54:18. > :54:20.to shape those rules at all. The likelihood is that we will have
:54:21. > :54:24.to play by the rules still, so we will be
:54:25. > :54:26.in a far worse position Don't you sometimes secretly
:54:27. > :54:39.and quietly think how brilliant or exciting
:54:40. > :54:41.it could be untrammelled by any sense of danger
:54:42. > :54:43.of EU regulation? Well, I agree entirely
:54:44. > :54:45.with what Stephen said about the need to be better engaged,
:54:46. > :54:48.but we are going to be publishing some research tomorrow showing that,
:54:49. > :54:51.actually, we have done rather well in the negotiations on the various
:54:52. > :54:53.financial services initiatives. Often they start off as something
:54:54. > :54:56.that is not favourable to Britain, but we do a really good job,
:54:57. > :54:59.the civil servants do it, even with limited resources,
:55:00. > :55:01.and we get a good outcome. FTT is really interesting,
:55:02. > :55:04.because we are not party to it. If it ever happens, and actually
:55:05. > :55:07.it is not going to happen in any way like the way it has
:55:08. > :55:11.been envisaged, we would be subject to it
:55:12. > :55:14.whether we're inside the EU or out, because it would be supranational,
:55:15. > :55:16.as our own stamp duty is. The fact is, by being in the EU
:55:17. > :55:19.even though we wouldn't be party to it, we
:55:20. > :55:22.can influence that debate. And also, our own government has
:55:23. > :55:25.made it clear there would be no relaxation of financial regulation
:55:26. > :55:27.in the event of Britain not And did David Cameron negotiate
:55:28. > :55:31.quite a good deal in terms of preserving
:55:32. > :55:33.the City's position? I don't think so, because basically
:55:34. > :55:36.they can just turn it down. Could I just pick up
:55:37. > :55:40.from Stephen's comment? He talks about uncertainty, I take
:55:41. > :55:43.your point, as I have already said, in 2018 you have equivalence,
:55:44. > :55:46.the equivalence provisions, and all you need for
:55:47. > :55:49.a British Government then is to say, And when it comes to visas,
:55:50. > :55:57.again, in the negotiations, I would trust and expect
:55:58. > :56:00.the British Government to say Because, quite honestly,
:56:01. > :56:03.they would say that, they because know full well
:56:04. > :56:07.they don't want this sort of story of uncertainty to go on.
:56:08. > :56:10.Wrap it up for us. It can't, because the reason
:56:11. > :56:12.for coming out of Europe, To deal with immigration,
:56:13. > :56:16.we would have to have some sort of visa system,
:56:17. > :56:19.and that would apply to us as well as to those people,
:56:20. > :56:22.so if I want to visit Brussels, That will put businesses
:56:23. > :56:25.in an impossible position, The British Government at the time
:56:26. > :56:30.would surely say what they envisage by way of visas, and I think
:56:31. > :56:32.they would give a very generous deal on that...
:56:33. > :56:34.We don't know. You can say you don't know now,
:56:35. > :56:38.but do you know in 2018 or 2017 The Government would
:56:39. > :56:40.have already said... A final word to Matthew,
:56:41. > :56:45.do you except and are you saying and how long do think there might
:56:46. > :56:49.be turbulent times As I've said, I don't think
:56:50. > :56:57.there would be turbulent times. We have also experienced that kind
:56:58. > :56:59.of uncertainty before, the time that we withdrew
:57:00. > :57:01.from the ERM. Not only did our interest rates
:57:02. > :57:03.reduce, our exports increased,
:57:04. > :57:05.and our economy boomed. I see it happening the same again.
:57:06. > :57:07.Time marches on. I would love to talk about
:57:08. > :57:09.this all afternoon(!) Yeah, I can detect that!
:57:10. > :57:14.But you can't, thanks very much Now, for the rest of
:57:15. > :57:23.the news in 60 seconds. London boroughs are not
:57:24. > :57:25.enforcing affordable housing The pan-London yearly
:57:26. > :57:29.target for new units although councils
:57:30. > :57:35.set their own levels. Only 8,500 such units were built
:57:36. > :57:38.in developments with affordability Westminster Council has said
:57:39. > :57:44.it is facing significant financial challenges and may axe
:57:45. > :57:47.its fixed CCTV cameras in September to save ?1.7 million
:57:48. > :57:52.in upgrade costs. The authority claims
:57:53. > :57:55.there is only limited evidence that fixed CCTV cameras prevent
:57:56. > :58:01.crime and disorder. Labour Mayor of London Sadiq Khan
:58:02. > :58:04.joined Prime Minister David Cameron this week to launch
:58:05. > :58:07.a Remain battle bus. Mr Cameron had previously criticised
:58:08. > :58:13.Mr Khan's poor judgment However, on Monday,
:58:14. > :58:20.they said they would work together and shared a joke about their
:58:21. > :58:28.fathers' very different careers Stephen, was Sadiq Khan right
:58:29. > :58:31.to share a platform, as some people joked,
:58:32. > :58:35.with that extremist David Cameron? I think he was, it's clearly
:58:36. > :58:37.a huge issue for London, whether or not we stay
:58:38. > :58:39.in the European Union, for the reasons we've
:58:40. > :58:42.just been talking about. I think Sadiq, who's made
:58:43. > :58:44.a fantastic start as Mayor of London, which I really applaud,
:58:45. > :58:47.I think he's absolutely right to stand up for
:58:48. > :58:49.the interests of London and make the case
:58:50. > :58:51.for staying in the EU. Quite a few people in your party
:58:52. > :58:54.perhaps right at the top, the deputy leader, does not
:58:55. > :58:57.appear to share your view. I think Sadiq is right
:58:58. > :59:03.to take every opportunity to make the case for London,
:59:04. > :59:06.that is what he is doing. What did you think when you saw
:59:07. > :59:09.the Mayor of London there Well, the day after the election,
:59:10. > :59:13.an ambassador who I shall not name said it was permissible to use
:59:14. > :59:15.any method, any technique, But after the election,
:59:16. > :59:19.you have to accept the result, and I think that is
:59:20. > :59:23.absolutely right. I don't see Sadiq Khan
:59:24. > :59:25.as a Labour Member of Parliament, that he is no longer,
:59:26. > :59:27.or a Labour mayor - I see him as Mayor of London,
:59:28. > :59:31.so he was right to do so. Right, and you support as such,
:59:32. > :59:33.as a London MP, unless he does something
:59:34. > :59:35.radically awful to you locally? And what about this decision
:59:36. > :59:41.by Westminster Council? I think they are the wealthiest
:59:42. > :59:44.authority but certainly bang here in the middle of the capital,
:59:45. > :59:47.with all the tourists and so on they are planning to look
:59:48. > :59:50.like they are going to scrap their CCTV system.
:59:51. > :59:52.I find it greatly worrying. When I was a councillor in Barnet,
:59:53. > :59:55.we introduced CCTV in a regular roll-out programme, and not only did
:59:56. > :59:57.it help prevent fairly horrific crimes like rape and possibly
:59:58. > :00:00.there was a murder. And it worries me that
:00:01. > :00:05.in the capital city, London, that we no longer have not
:00:06. > :00:08.only a deterrent against crime, but also a great tool
:00:09. > :00:10.in the fight against terrorism. I mean, Westminster is saying
:00:11. > :00:19.it literally only get involved I think it has a wider importance,
:00:20. > :00:24.I agree with Matthew about this I have just had a public meeting
:00:25. > :00:27.with resident in my constituency, who talked about rubbish
:00:28. > :00:29.fly-tipping, and a lot of people want to see more cameras
:00:30. > :00:32.so that those who dumped rubbish, dumped mattresses, dump boxes
:00:33. > :00:34.of rubbish on the pavement, So I'm surprised
:00:35. > :00:37.Westminster is doing this. They say it is very reactive
:00:38. > :00:39.and not really a deterrent, do you not accept that?
:00:40. > :00:42.I think it can be. Of course, it has to be used
:00:43. > :00:45.smartly, and when people do things that are bad,
:00:46. > :00:47.they need to be caught I think they'd find
:00:48. > :00:56.CCTV pretty effective. Just this last matter,
:00:57. > :00:58.figures out this week under freedom of information which showed
:00:59. > :01:01.that the struggle that London authorities have heating their own
:01:02. > :01:06.targets for affordable homes, I don't know what their target is,
:01:07. > :01:13.but we certainly have a robust building programme, probably
:01:14. > :01:14.the biggest in London. And so we are playing
:01:15. > :01:17.our part within Barnet. But it comes down to the issue,
:01:18. > :01:19.once again, of immigration, more people wanting to come
:01:20. > :01:22.to the capital, whether from inside this country or from abroad,
:01:23. > :01:24.so we need to vote Briefly, 20 seconds left,
:01:25. > :01:28.people were saying they looked at the figures, no-one got anywhere
:01:29. > :01:30.near 50% affordability, that is what Sadiq Khan
:01:31. > :01:32.says is possible. It is, it's a big task that
:01:33. > :01:36.Sadiq has set, he's right there a massive crisis
:01:37. > :01:39.facing the of London. We shall see what he does.
:01:40. > :02:07.Thanks very much indeed. David Davis will talk to is about
:02:08. > :02:11.the snoopers' charter, but that interview with John Major on the
:02:12. > :02:15.Andrew Marr Show, earlier we showed you in talking about the deceit of
:02:16. > :02:21.the Leave campaign, this is in talking about Boris Johnson's
:02:22. > :02:23.prospect of leading the party. If they continued to divide the
:02:24. > :02:28.Conservative Party, as they are doing at the present time, and if
:02:29. > :02:32.Boris has the laudable ambition because it is laudable to become
:02:33. > :02:37.Prime Minister, he will find, if he achieves that, that he will not have
:02:38. > :02:42.the loyalty of the party he divided. Iain Duncan Smith was serially
:02:43. > :02:45.disloyal in the 1990s. When he became leader, he was surprised that
:02:46. > :02:51.no-one was loyal to him. Boris should learn from that.
:02:52. > :02:58.What was the purpose of his interview this morning?
:02:59. > :03:02.I guess number ten asked him to do it, and being a loyal supporter of a
:03:03. > :03:08.Tory party, he would do that. I guess he was trying to reduce the
:03:09. > :03:13.credibility of the Leave campaign's claim. Some irony when you consider
:03:14. > :03:17.the most incredible claim has been from George Osborne, the Treasury,
:03:18. > :03:22.in terms of his forecasts, and even what John Major said, I was his last
:03:23. > :03:29.defender in the Commons, the numbers bandying around.
:03:30. > :03:35.He said for example this controversial ?350 million was one
:03:36. > :03:41.third of that. That is half the net contribution. He said industries
:03:42. > :03:46.would face 10% levies. The car industry would, but most of
:03:47. > :03:49.the others would be up to 5%. He was not being very
:03:50. > :03:53.straightforward with the numbers. Were you surprised how personal the
:03:54. > :03:56.attacks on Boris well. We know he has long hated Iain
:03:57. > :04:04.Duncan Smith. Understandable. But saying in the
:04:05. > :04:10.hands of Michael Gove, Boris Johnson, IDS, the NHS would be like
:04:11. > :04:17.a hamster in a room with a pattern. He was trashing the Tory brand.
:04:18. > :04:22.A harsh attack. I don't think it was very wise.
:04:23. > :04:24.One of the problems both sides of this campaign have had is it is too
:04:25. > :04:31.personalised. The public don't like it. After the
:04:32. > :04:34.23rd, we had to pull the party together.
:04:35. > :04:38.With that sort of attack, it is a bad idea.
:04:39. > :04:43.Sam. Let me put it this way. Whatever the result, things for the
:04:44. > :04:48.Tories will never be the same again for the rest of this Parliament
:04:49. > :04:53.It will be very hard. Clearly with a working majority of about 18, hard
:04:54. > :04:58.to get contentious the station through, the biggest area of danger
:04:59. > :05:04.for David Cameron. He will be a zombie Prime Minister, he can't get
:05:05. > :05:07.it through the Commons, and the Lords is a different matter where
:05:08. > :05:12.legislation will get stuck. You saw the kinds of things in the
:05:13. > :05:17.Queen's Speech. With the exception of the data Bill, I can't see any of
:05:18. > :05:22.the bills will be that radical when they get passed into law. So I think
:05:23. > :05:24.there will be a successful coup after June the 23rd, that seems
:05:25. > :05:31.unlikely. Even if it is a vote to Leave.
:05:32. > :05:38.That could change things. I think David Cameron would go within his
:05:39. > :05:41.own time. In the case of a remain vote, there are up to 20 MPs who
:05:42. > :05:48.bitterly disliked David Cameron I don't think that number has
:05:49. > :05:51.dramatically increased solely as a result of the referendum campaign.
:05:52. > :05:55.There is a safety valve, the leadership election which will
:05:56. > :06:01.happen possibly sooner than you think.
:06:02. > :06:06.There may not be an immediate coup even if the vote is to Remain.
:06:07. > :06:11.The keyword or words, zombie parliaments, there are anything
:06:12. > :06:13.between 20-50 MPs deeply disillusioned with the Prime
:06:14. > :06:19.Minister. They have a taste for revolt. The
:06:20. > :06:24.Government majority is derisory This Government could now find it
:06:25. > :06:29.very difficult to get anything major through this potential zombie
:06:30. > :06:33.parliament. That is absolutely true. On the
:06:34. > :06:37.matter of a coup, there are a number of mischief makers within the Tory
:06:38. > :06:40.ranks who don't mind if a coup succeeds or fails, they feel the
:06:41. > :06:47.Labour opposition is so weak, they have the luxury of doing this.
:06:48. > :06:53.I think the numbers are lower than you think. I would say 20, not more
:06:54. > :06:56.than that. That is enough, given the Government
:06:57. > :07:00.majority. These are the ones that hate the
:07:01. > :07:06.regime as it were. You have another group. The problem
:07:07. > :07:09.is not if there is a Brexit victory, but if there is a very narrow Remain
:07:10. > :07:16.victory. A lot of those wanting Brexit will
:07:17. > :07:20.feel they have been cheated. The ?9 million spent on the
:07:21. > :07:25.leaflets, all of that, they will be difficult to manage.
:07:26. > :07:29.This is a Government that has found it hard to get its budget through.
:07:30. > :07:35.Almost unprecedented, it lost most of the major parts of the budget
:07:36. > :07:42.unveiled in March. Would it not be even more difficult if it is a vote
:07:43. > :07:44.to Remain, but small, to get its business through except the
:07:45. > :07:51.noncontroversial. To say it is difficult for the
:07:52. > :07:57.future is a description of the past ten months, they had two H a great
:07:58. > :08:02.answer their planned pensions reform amongst other things.
:08:03. > :08:07.The potential American trade deal. Most recently, and prior to the
:08:08. > :08:10.referendum. Things will become difficult
:08:11. > :08:15.afterwards. David Cameron will end up leading my kind of Government, it
:08:16. > :08:24.won't do very much. The basic strategic stuff. What the founders
:08:25. > :08:29.in America intended. The one bit of optimism for the Tories, it picks up
:08:30. > :08:34.on David's point, I wouldn't underestimate how many Tory MPs want
:08:35. > :08:36.is referendum done with, that includes absolutely committed
:08:37. > :08:42.leaders who don't think much of David Cameron.
:08:43. > :08:45.Interviewing Johnny Mercer, he wants it over, you can tell from his
:08:46. > :08:51.demeanour. And he wouldn't look at me but there
:08:52. > :08:55.may be another reason! We don't need to go that!
:08:56. > :08:58.Let me ask you. Given the kind of Government our panel are talking
:08:59. > :09:02.about, it is already difficult for the Government to get things done.
:09:03. > :09:07.Even more difficult after the referendum I would suggest if it is
:09:08. > :09:11.Remain by a small majority. Does that give you hope for your
:09:12. > :09:18.continued opposition to the investigatory Powers act for the
:09:19. > :09:23.police and intelligence services? Taking up on the American view, look
:09:24. > :09:30.what happened with tax credits. There were about 40 people opposing
:09:31. > :09:34.it, only two voting against it. It went to the House of Lords, got
:09:35. > :09:37.knocked back. The Government knew there was a looming rebellion.
:09:38. > :09:41.That will be the message of the future.
:09:42. > :09:46.A lot of that pressure play. The investigative powers act, large
:09:47. > :09:48.parts of it will be flayed by the House of Lords, the Government will
:09:49. > :09:53.concede. That is the way it will happen.
:09:54. > :09:58.Whether it is the approval mechanisms or the data gathered or
:09:59. > :10:00.who has access, those will be challenged.
:10:01. > :10:06.All those things will now be more at risk at least after the referendum.
:10:07. > :10:11.Maybe why they are brushing it through in the next few days.
:10:12. > :10:14.I would suggest looking at the campaign, two and a half weeks to
:10:15. > :10:22.go, in the week up to the Whitsun bank holiday, Remain one that, and
:10:23. > :10:26.overwhelming economic amount of stuff coming out.
:10:27. > :10:28.In the weeks since leading up to this weekend, Leave have probably
:10:29. > :10:35.done better. The interviews on Sky.
:10:36. > :10:39.Still all to play for. Leave goes into this week probably with a
:10:40. > :10:45.spring in its step. I think that is right. One of the
:10:46. > :10:49.mistakes of the Remain campaign was at two different points, to feel
:10:50. > :10:56.like they were heading for victory. Once in the aftermath of the visit
:10:57. > :10:59.by President Barack Obama. They thought it was a big moment that
:11:00. > :11:07.would produce a push. A couple of weeks ago, they sensed
:11:08. > :11:10.that polls were going their way in private conversations they thought
:11:11. > :11:15.they had got it in the bag. That created hubris and a problem.
:11:16. > :11:21.They did not see coming the Australian style points system
:11:22. > :11:25.attacked by Vote Leave last weekend, setting out plans. They thought it
:11:26. > :11:30.would be a policy freak referendum campaign. That pulled the debate
:11:31. > :11:34.back into the Leave side. Is Leave thinking it can win?
:11:35. > :11:41.Privately, I think they are beginning to think they have a 0-50
:11:42. > :11:45.chance, maybe more. Previously, privately, a lot would admit they
:11:46. > :11:49.felt pessimistic. I definitely sense a shift. If you
:11:50. > :11:58.look at what happened in Scotland, it was around this time use saw
:11:59. > :12:03.polls saw an advantage -- seeing an advantage for independence.
:12:04. > :12:08.Still three weeks to go, nobody is counting their chickens.
:12:09. > :12:14.I am reliably informed Leave is ahead but that is embargoed so I
:12:15. > :12:19.didn't mention it. But they still don't think they are
:12:20. > :12:23.losing? How big a victory do they need in
:12:24. > :12:29.order to put the question to bed and preserve the Prime Minister.
:12:30. > :12:35.At least 55-45? That would do it. The fact they
:12:36. > :12:40.deployed John Major shows they are worried.
:12:41. > :12:46.John Major was the nuclear weapons. Lose or win, yes or no?
:12:47. > :12:52.Brexit, a small margin. You heard it here first. Just to
:12:53. > :12:55.mention, as well as the debate we have been discussing, I will be
:12:56. > :12:56.interviewing leading figures from both sides of
:12:57. > :13:01.Starting tomorrow at 7.30 on BBC One, with Shadow Foreign
:13:02. > :13:04.Followed on Wednesday by Chancellor George Osborne.
:13:05. > :13:07.And then it's the turn of Leave campaigners Nigel Farage
:13:08. > :13:13.I hope you can join me, it should be fun.
:13:14. > :13:17.And, of course, we're back here next week as usual at 11 o'clock
:13:18. > :13:23.Remember, if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.