:00:37. > :00:40.Morning folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics.
:00:41. > :00:42.Theresa May says she wants to help people who are
:00:43. > :00:45."just about managing" - so should she reverse
:00:46. > :00:48.George Osborne's cuts to benefits that are supposed to help people
:00:49. > :00:55.Prominent London Imam Shakeel Begg is an extremist speaker,
:00:56. > :00:58.says the High Court, after claims made on this programme.
:00:59. > :01:03.So why is Mr Begg still being allowed to advise the Police?
:01:04. > :01:08.Hillary Clinton fights back over the FBI's renewed investigation
:01:09. > :01:11.into her use of a private email server - is this the boost
:01:12. > :01:20.Donald Trump needed to reignite his chances of winning the White House?
:01:21. > :01:26.London, a decision finally taken. Now it is just a question of
:01:27. > :01:32.building that runway with the political problems that lie ahead.
:01:33. > :01:35.And haunting the studio on this Halloween weekend,
:01:36. > :01:37.the most terrifying political panel in the business -
:01:38. > :01:40.Tim 'Ghost' Shipman, 'Eerie' Isabel Oakeshott and
:01:41. > :01:49.First this morning, two new models of car to be built,
:01:50. > :01:52.securing 7,000 jobs at the car plant in Sunderland and a further 28, 00
:01:53. > :01:58.The news from Nissan on Thursday was seized on by Leave campaigners
:01:59. > :02:01.as evidence that the British economy is in rude health
:02:02. > :02:04.This morning, the Business Secretary, Greg Clark, was asked
:02:05. > :02:08.what assurances were given to the Japanese firm's bosses
:02:09. > :02:14.Well, it's in no-one's the interest for there to be tariff
:02:15. > :02:20.barriers to the continent and vice versa.
:02:21. > :02:23.So, what I said is that our objective would be to ensure that we
:02:24. > :02:28.have continued access to the markets in Europe and vice versa, without
:02:29. > :02:32.tariffs and without bureaucratic impediments.
:02:33. > :02:36.That is how we will approach those negotiations.
:02:37. > :02:38.We're joined now from Newcastle by the Shadow Business
:02:39. > :02:52.Welcome to the programme. Labour has been a bit sceptical about this
:02:53. > :02:56.Nissan decision. Can we begin by making it clear just what a great
:02:57. > :03:01.achievement this is, above all for the workers of Sunderland who have
:03:02. > :03:06.some of the highest productivity in the world, have never been on strike
:03:07. > :03:12.for 30 years, and produce cars of incredible quality. This is their
:03:13. > :03:16.victory, isn't it? Andrew, you are absolutely right. The Nissan plant
:03:17. > :03:21.in Sunderland is among the most productive in the world. The workers
:03:22. > :03:27.of Nissan are amongst the most productive as well. And it's really
:03:28. > :03:30.a victory for them and for the trade unions and the business
:03:31. > :03:32.organisations, and everybody who campaigned to make sure that the
:03:33. > :03:40.government couldn't ignore their future. It's our future. I'm the MP
:03:41. > :03:43.for Newcastle. It makes a huge difference to the region. We are a
:03:44. > :03:46.region that still likes to make things that work. It is a huge part
:03:47. > :03:53.of our advanced manufacturing sector. So it's really something we
:03:54. > :03:59.welcome as well as the job security. I'm glad we have got that on the
:04:00. > :04:03.record from the Labour shadow business secretary. But your Shadow
:04:04. > :04:06.Chancellor, John McDonnell, claims the government is ignoring
:04:07. > :04:12.manufacturers and cares only about a small banking elite. In what way is
:04:13. > :04:15.safeguarding 30,000 industrial jobs in the North safeguarding a
:04:16. > :04:21.financial elite? As I said, we're really pleased that the campaigning
:04:22. > :04:24.by trade unions and the workforce, and business organisations, meant
:04:25. > :04:28.the government felt they couldn t ignore Nissan workers. Let's also be
:04:29. > :04:31.clear that we want that kind of job security for all of those working in
:04:32. > :04:36.manufacturing and in other sectors as well. And sweetheart deals for
:04:37. > :04:42.one company, no matter how important they are, that does not an
:04:43. > :04:49.industrial strategy make. Why'd you say it is a sweetheart deal? Greg
:04:50. > :04:52.Clark told the BBC this morning that what was assured to Nissan is an
:04:53. > :04:57.assurance he gives to the whole industrial sector? I was really
:04:58. > :05:02.pleased to see Greg Clark felt he had to say something, even though
:05:03. > :05:07.it's sad that we having our industrial strategy, you like, or
:05:08. > :05:12.our approach to Brexit delivered piecemeal to the media rather than
:05:13. > :05:16.to the British people and Nissan, actually. But he want published the
:05:17. > :05:20.letter. He said he has told us what is in the letter and that
:05:21. > :05:25.reassurances given on training, on science and on supporting the supply
:05:26. > :05:31.chain for the automated sector. You must be in favour all -- of all of
:05:32. > :05:36.that? We are in favour of an industrial strategy. Greg Clark
:05:37. > :05:42.unlike Sajid Javid, cannot say industrial strategy. I'm still
:05:43. > :05:48.puzzling to find out what it is you disagree with. Let me put the
:05:49. > :05:54.question. You said the assurances he has given to Nissan are available to
:05:55. > :05:59.the car manufacturing sector in general and indeed to industry in
:06:00. > :06:04.general. What is your problem with that? Two things. Let him publish
:06:05. > :06:09.the letter so we can see that, let him have the transparency he's
:06:10. > :06:13.pretending to offer. But also, we need an industrial strategy that
:06:14. > :06:21.values -- that is values based and joined. He talked about electric
:06:22. > :06:26.cars and supporting green cars. That was in regard to Nissan. At the same
:06:27. > :06:31.time the government has slashed support for other areas of green
:06:32. > :06:37.technology. So what is it? That is not to do with the Nissan deal.
:06:38. > :06:41.Labour implied at some stage there was some financial inducement, some
:06:42. > :06:46.secret bribes, that doesn't seem to be the case. You are not claiming
:06:47. > :06:49.that any more -- any more. Then you claimed it was a sweetheart deal for
:06:50. > :06:58.one company. That turns out not to be the case. What criticism are you
:06:59. > :07:03.left with on this Nissan deal? I would be really surprised if all
:07:04. > :07:07.that Nissan got was the reassurances that Greg Clark is shared with us.
:07:08. > :07:12.He didn't answer the question of what happens if we can't get
:07:13. > :07:16.continued tariff free access to the single market, if we are not within
:07:17. > :07:22.the single market or the Customs Union. Do you really think a
:07:23. > :07:25.negotiator like Nissan, who are very good at negotiating, they would have
:07:26. > :07:30.excepted making this significant investment without some further
:07:31. > :07:34.reassurances? Do you think there is some kind of financial bride and if
:07:35. > :07:39.so what is the evidence? I would like to see the letter published and
:07:40. > :07:44.I would also like to understand what would happen... There are 27
:07:45. > :07:50.countries which need to agree with the deal we have from Brexit. What
:07:51. > :07:55.will Nissan, how will Nissan remain competitive? How will the automotive
:07:56. > :08:00.industry remain competitive? Greg Clark says he reassured them on
:08:01. > :08:08.that. But how will that be so if we do not get access? We haven't heard
:08:09. > :08:12.anything about that. He talks about reassurances given to Nissan. We
:08:13. > :08:15.need to make -- to know where we're going to make sure Brexit is in the
:08:16. > :08:19.interest of all workers, not only those who work for a Nissan and not
:08:20. > :08:25.only those who can get the attention of Greg Clark. He assured Nissan
:08:26. > :08:29.that Britain would remain a competitive place to do business.
:08:30. > :08:33.That was the main assurance he gave them. He would help with skills and
:08:34. > :08:38.infrastructure and all the rest Since you are -- intend to repeal
:08:39. > :08:42.the trade union laws that have made strikes in Britain largely a thing
:08:43. > :08:45.of the past, and you plan to raise corporation tax, you couldn't give
:08:46. > :08:52.Nissan the same assurance, could you? We could absolutely give Nissan
:08:53. > :08:55.the assurance that we will be, our vision of the future of the UK, is
:08:56. > :09:07.based on having a strong manufacturing sector. Repealing
:09:08. > :09:11.trade union laws? As we have seen at Nissan, the industrial sector is
:09:12. > :09:17.dependent on having highly trained, well skilled workers. -- highly
:09:18. > :09:23.skilled, well-trained. You don't have that by getting -- having an
:09:24. > :09:27.aggressive policy and trade union laws or by slashing corporation tax
:09:28. > :09:30.and not supporting manufacturing investment. Remember, the last
:09:31. > :09:36.government took away the Manufacturing allowances which
:09:37. > :09:39.supported Manufacturing and slashed corporation tax. That is their
:09:40. > :09:45.solution. It is a low tax, low skill economy they want.
:09:46. > :09:49.Thank you. Sorry I had to rush you. I'm grateful for you joining us
:09:50. > :09:58.I'm still struggling to see what is left of Labour's criticism? Yeah,
:09:59. > :10:02.except for this. This was a valid point she just made. What we know
:10:03. > :10:07.for sure is that Greg Clark could say to Nissan, my aim is to get
:10:08. > :10:11.tariff free deal. There is no way he could guarantee that. None of us
:10:12. > :10:19.know that. I don't think that was enough. I think clearly there was a
:10:20. > :10:24.more detailed package involving training and other things. He has
:10:25. > :10:27.acknowledged this, albeit we do not know the precise mechanism. What I
:10:28. > :10:31.think is interesting about this is if you reverse what happened this
:10:32. > :10:33.week, at a time when the government says Britain is open for business
:10:34. > :10:39.and it is going to have an industrial strategy, so far it is a
:10:40. > :10:43.bit vaguely defined. Nissan hadn't made this commitment. Imagine what
:10:44. > :10:46.would have happened? It is an impossible scenario. The government
:10:47. > :10:52.seems to me was obliged to make sure this didn't happen. Let's not forget
:10:53. > :10:56.Nissan has invested hundreds of millions in the north-east. It has
:10:57. > :11:01.been a huge success story. When I spoke to workers from Nissan, they
:11:02. > :11:05.were so proud because they went to Japan to teach the Japanese had to
:11:06. > :11:08.be more productive. The idea that Nissan was just going to walk away
:11:09. > :11:13.from this given its track record, its importance, wasn't really
:11:14. > :11:18.credible. The government had some bargaining chips. Absolutely, of
:11:19. > :11:22.course they weren't going to walk away. The majority of people in the
:11:23. > :11:27.area in which Nissan is braced - based, voted for Brexit. Nissan
:11:28. > :11:30.knows it is in a powerful position because it is an emotive sector
:11:31. > :11:35.Clearly the government didn't want to have some big showdown. I
:11:36. > :11:40.honestly don't think this is a smoking gun. The Labour Shadow
:11:41. > :11:44.minister really struggled to articulate what exactly she thinks
:11:45. > :11:49.the government is hiding. I think the reassurances were given were
:11:50. > :11:51.pretty anodyne, really. They were anodyne and general. And what Greg
:11:52. > :11:56.Clark was setting out was an objective and he made the right
:11:57. > :11:59.noises, and Nissan exercised its right to sabre rattle. It does have
:12:00. > :12:05.a history of doing that. The one thing that would now be clear given
:12:06. > :12:08.Greg Clark's performance this morning on the BBC, is that if we
:12:09. > :12:13.were to discover some kind of financial incentive directly linked
:12:14. > :12:18.to this investment, not more for skills or infrastructure, that is
:12:19. > :12:21.fine, but some direct financial investment, compensation for
:12:22. > :12:24.tariffs, which would be illegal under World Trade Organisation
:12:25. > :12:28.rules, what you might call a financial bride, the sect -- the
:12:29. > :12:34.business Secretary's position would be untenable? He would be in a very
:12:35. > :12:37.difficult position indeed. Just released the letter. There is
:12:38. > :12:40.nothing to hide. Put it out there. The most revealing thing is that
:12:41. > :12:45.people are getting wildly excited about the fact Greg Clark announced
:12:46. > :12:50.Britain's negotiating position would be that we would like tariff free
:12:51. > :12:53.trade with Europe. This is regarded as an insight into what this comment
:12:54. > :12:56.is doing and it says a great deal about how little we have been told
:12:57. > :13:02.in Parliament and the media about what they are up. Do you think it is
:13:03. > :13:09.exciting we are going for tariff free trade? We're easily excited
:13:10. > :13:13.these days. We don't know. This is where these things are at such a
:13:14. > :13:16.tentative phase. We don't know how the rest of the European Union is
:13:17. > :13:25.going to respond to Britain's negotiating hand. We know Britain
:13:26. > :13:30.once the best of everything, please. It is a starting point. But that is
:13:31. > :13:32.not how it is going to end up. We are getting wider than that. We have
:13:33. > :13:34.will have to see. Now, Universal Credit,
:13:35. > :13:36.a single payment made to welfare claimants that would roll together
:13:37. > :13:38.a plethora of benefits whilst encouraging people into work
:13:39. > :13:41.by making work pay. But have cuts to the flagship
:13:42. > :13:43.welfare scheme reduced work incentives and hit the incomes
:13:44. > :13:49.of the least well-off? Well, some of the government's
:13:50. > :13:51.own MPs think so, and, as Mark Lobel reports,
:13:52. > :13:57.want the cuts reversed. Theresa May says she wants
:13:58. > :14:00.a country that works for everyone, that's on the side
:14:01. > :14:05.of ordinary, working people. It means never writing off people
:14:06. > :14:08.who can work and consigning them to a life on benefits,
:14:09. > :14:11.but giving them the chance to go out and earn a living and to enjoy
:14:12. > :14:14.the dignity that comes But now some in her party
:14:15. > :14:20.are worried that the low earners will be hit by changes
:14:21. > :14:24.to Universal Credit benefit system originally set up to encourage
:14:25. > :14:27.more people into work. We also need to focus tax credits
:14:28. > :14:30.and Universal Credit Concern centred on the Government's
:14:31. > :14:36.decision in the July 2015 budget to find ?3 billion worth of savings
:14:37. > :14:45.from the Universal Credit bill. Conservative MP Heidi Allen
:14:46. > :14:48.is working on a campaign to get MPs in her party to urge
:14:49. > :14:56.the Prime Minister to think again. I want her to understand for herself
:14:57. > :14:59.what the outcomes might be if we press ahead
:15:00. > :15:01.with the Universal Credit, Do you think Theresa May, right now,
:15:02. > :15:05.understands what you understand To be fair, unless you really
:15:06. > :15:08.get into the detail, and I have through my work
:15:09. > :15:10.on the Work and Pensions Select Committee, I don't
:15:11. > :15:12.think anybody does. Independent economic analysts
:15:13. > :15:18.at the IFS agree with Heidi Alan that cuts to Universal Credit weaken
:15:19. > :15:22.incentives to work. One of the key parts
:15:23. > :15:25.of the Universal Credit system That is how much you can
:15:26. > :15:28.earn before your credit As the Government has
:15:29. > :15:31.sought to save money, both under the Coalition and now
:15:32. > :15:34.they Conservative Government, both under the Coalition and now
:15:35. > :15:36.the Conservative Government, that work allowance has been cut,
:15:37. > :15:38.time and time again. The biggest cuts happened
:15:39. > :15:41.in the summer budget of 2015. That basically reduces the amount
:15:42. > :15:43.of earnings you get to keep It weakens the incentive people have
:15:44. > :15:47.to move into work. What do changes to the Universal
:15:48. > :15:49.Credit system mean? The Resolution Foundation think tank
:15:50. > :15:52.has crunched the numbers. If you compare what would have
:15:53. > :15:56.happened before the July 2015 summer budget to what will happen by 2 20,
:15:57. > :15:59.even if you take into account gains in the National Living Wage
:16:00. > :16:01.and income tax cuts, recipients will be hit
:16:02. > :16:06.by annual deductions. Couples and parents would receive,
:16:07. > :16:10.on average, ?1000 less. A dual-earning couple with two
:16:11. > :16:12.children under four, with one partner working full-time
:16:13. > :16:15.on ?10.50 an hour and the other working part-time on the minimum
:16:16. > :16:18.wage for around 20 hours a week, they would
:16:19. > :16:25.receive ?1800 less. Hit most by the changes
:16:26. > :16:27.would be a single parent with a child under four,
:16:28. > :16:29.working full-time I think, if I'm honest,
:16:30. > :16:43.it is unrealistic, given the economic climate,
:16:44. > :16:46.to expect everything to be reversed. What I would like to see
:16:47. > :16:52.is an increase in the work allowances to those people
:16:53. > :16:55.who will be hardest hit. That is single parents and second
:16:56. > :16:58.earners hoping to return to work, because they are the people we need
:16:59. > :17:00.to absolutely make The Sunday Politics understands that
:17:01. > :17:05.about 15 to 20 Conservative MPs are pushing for changes ahead
:17:06. > :17:08.of the Autumn Statement. A former cabinet minister told us
:17:09. > :17:11.that they believed further impact analysis should be done to find out
:17:12. > :17:14.if any mitigation measures Former Work and Pensions Secretary
:17:15. > :17:20.Iain Duncan Smith, an architect of the system, now says
:17:21. > :17:25.the cuts should be reversed. But his former department has told
:17:26. > :17:30.us that it has no plans to revisit the work allowance changes announced
:17:31. > :17:35.in the budget last year. What I would say to Heidi Allen
:17:36. > :17:38.and IDS, they got it right the first time and they should stick
:17:39. > :17:41.to the vote they cast last year because these reforms actually
:17:42. > :17:43.do make sense. What interests me is the fact
:17:44. > :17:46.we are trying to move people off welfare into work,
:17:47. > :17:48.we are raising the wages people earn by massively increasing
:17:49. > :17:50.the minimum wage and this People are coming off
:17:51. > :17:54.welfare and into work. Campaigners are pushing for savings
:17:55. > :17:57.to come from other areas to relieve The other thing we have to start
:17:58. > :18:03.looking at is the triple Financially it has been a great
:18:04. > :18:07.policy, and it was absolutely right that we lifted pensioners
:18:08. > :18:09.who were significantly behind, for many years, in terms of income
:18:10. > :18:11.levels, but they have I think it is time for us to look
:18:12. > :18:17.at that policy again, because is costing us an awful
:18:18. > :18:19.lot of money. With just over three weeks to wait
:18:20. > :18:22.until the Conservative leadership's new economic plan is unveiled
:18:23. > :18:25.in the Autumn Statement, its top team is under pressure
:18:26. > :18:28.from within its own ranks to use it And I'm joined now by former Work
:18:29. > :18:44.and Pensions Secretary, Welcome back to the programme.
:18:45. > :18:49.Theresa May said she is on the side of the just managing, the working
:18:50. > :18:53.poor. But they are about to be hit from all sides. Their modest living
:18:54. > :18:56.standards are going to be squeezed as inflation overtakes pay rises,
:18:57. > :19:00.they will be further squeezed because top-up benefits in work are
:19:01. > :19:05.frozen. Incentives to work are going to be reduced by the cuts in
:19:06. > :19:10.universal benefits. So much for being on the side of those just
:19:11. > :19:17.managing? Theresa was right to focus on this group. The definition has to
:19:18. > :19:21.be the bottom half, in economic terms, of the social structure. It
:19:22. > :19:24.doesn't look good for them? This is the point I am making, it is an
:19:25. > :19:28.opportunity to put some of this right. One of the reasons I resigned
:19:29. > :19:31.in March is because I felt the direction of travel we had been
:19:32. > :19:35.going in had been to take far too much money out of that group of
:19:36. > :19:38.people when there are other areas which, if you need to make some of
:19:39. > :19:42.those savings, you can. The key bit is that the group needs to be helped
:19:43. > :19:47.through into work and encouraged to stay in work. There was a report
:19:48. > :19:51.done with the IFS, when we were there, at Universal Credit. It said
:19:52. > :19:56.Universal Credit rolled out, as it should have been before the cuts,
:19:57. > :20:00.people would be much more likely to stay in work longer and earn more
:20:01. > :20:04.money. It is a net positive, but that is now called into question.
:20:05. > :20:08.Let's unpick some of the detail but first, do you accept the words of
:20:09. > :20:12.David Willets? It says on the basis of the things I read out to you that
:20:13. > :20:21.the just managing face a significant and painful cut in real terms if we
:20:22. > :20:27.continue on the way we are going. I do, in essence. That is the reason
:20:28. > :20:32.why I resigned. I felt Heidi raised that issue as well, that we got the
:20:33. > :20:36.balance wrong. It is right that pensioners get to a certain point,
:20:37. > :20:41.when they are on a level par, doing the right thing over five years
:20:42. > :20:49.Staying with that process has cost us ?18 billion extra this year, in
:20:50. > :20:55.total. It will go on costing another 5 billion. Then there is the issue
:20:56. > :20:57.of tax allowances. I want to remind you and viewers what David Cameron
:20:58. > :21:04.told the Conservative conference in 2009. If you are a single mother
:21:05. > :21:09.with two children, earning ?150 a week, the withdrawal of your
:21:10. > :21:15.benefits and the additional taxes that you pay me on that for every
:21:16. > :21:23.extra you earn, you keep just 4p. What kind of incentive is that? 30
:21:24. > :21:29.years ago, this party won and election fighting against 98% tax
:21:30. > :21:36.rates for the Rex richest. I want us today to show even more anger about
:21:37. > :21:41.96% tax rates for the very poorest in our country. Real anger, and
:21:42. > :21:48.effective rate of over 90%. Universal Credit reduces that. Some
:21:49. > :21:53.will still face, as they lose benefits and pay tax, a marginal
:21:54. > :21:56.rate of over 75%. That is still too high? Yes, it is the collision
:21:57. > :22:01.between those going into work at the moment they start paying tax. A
:22:02. > :22:07.racial Universal Credit is set at 65%. You can call that the base
:22:08. > :22:12.marginal tax rate. 1.2 million will face 75%? That is the point about
:22:13. > :22:15.why the allowances are so important. The point about the allowances which
:22:16. > :22:19.viewers might not fully understand is that it was set, as part of
:22:20. > :22:23.Universal Credit, to allow you to get certain people, with certain
:22:24. > :22:29.difficulties, as they cross into work, to retain more benefit before
:22:30. > :22:33.it is tapered away as they go up in hours. A lone parent, who might have
:22:34. > :22:37.various issues, you want her to have a bigger incentive than a single
:22:38. > :22:41.person that does not have the same commitments. It is structured so
:22:42. > :22:43.that somebody who has difficulty going to work, they all have
:22:44. > :22:47.slightly different rates. What happened is that last year a
:22:48. > :22:51.decision was taken to reduce tax credits, and, on the back of that,
:22:52. > :22:58.to reduce allowances. I believe given everything that happened now,
:22:59. > :23:00.we need to restore that to the point where it helps those people crossing
:23:01. > :23:03.over. You say a decision was taken, it was a decision by the former
:23:04. > :23:09.Chancellor George Osborne in the summer budget. Other decisions were
:23:10. > :23:12.taken in successive Budgets to raise the Universal Credit budget, which
:23:13. > :23:15.resulted in the disincentive being higher than many people wanted. Do
:23:16. > :23:20.you accept that has been the consequence of his decisions? I was
:23:21. > :23:24.in the Government, we take collective responsibility. I argued
:23:25. > :23:27.this was not the right way to go, but when you are in you have to stay
:23:28. > :23:30.with it if you lose that argument. There was another attempt before the
:23:31. > :23:35.spending review last year to increase the taper, so the marginal
:23:36. > :23:40.rate would have gone up. I managed to stop that. I'm Sibley saying
:23:41. > :23:44.what we made as a decision last year, given the circumstances and
:23:45. > :23:48.given that the net effect of all of that, I think it is time for the
:23:49. > :23:53.Government to ask the question, if we are in this to help that group of
:23:54. > :23:56.people, Universal Credit is singularly the most powerful tool.
:23:57. > :24:02.One of the Argentine aid in the paper published on Thursday, we are
:24:03. > :24:07.set going on doing two more races of the tax threshold, taking more
:24:08. > :24:11.people out of tax. That has a diminishing effect on the bottom
:24:12. > :24:16.section. Only 25p in that tax rate will help any of those. Most of it
:24:17. > :24:21.goes to middle income? You and I will benefit more from that. With
:24:22. > :24:25.Universal Credit, every pound you put into that will go to the bottom
:24:26. > :24:29.five tenths. That is why I designed it like that. He pressed the button
:24:30. > :24:34.and immediately start to changed circumstances. Should the cuts in
:24:35. > :24:36.Universal Credit that Mr Osborne introduced, against your argument,
:24:37. > :24:42.should they be reversed? I believe so. I believe you can do it even if
:24:43. > :24:45.there is concern about spending I don't believe you need to go through
:24:46. > :24:54.with the continuing raise the tax threshold. Cost is dependent on
:24:55. > :24:59.inflation, but give or take. It is in the Tory manifesto? Has more than
:25:00. > :25:02.doubled. What is in the manifesto, and Lasse Prime Minister made this
:25:03. > :25:08.clear in conference, we want to improve the life chances of people.
:25:09. > :25:12.Today's announcement on the Green paper is what I wrote over the last
:25:13. > :25:15.two and a half years. Big changes necessary to how we deal with
:25:16. > :25:20.sickness benefit. That can now be done because of Universal Credit,
:25:21. > :25:24.because people can go back to work and it tapers away their benefits.
:25:25. > :25:27.It is the most powerful tool to sort our people that live in poverty
:25:28. > :25:32.Universal Credit. We need to make sure it lands positively. If Mr
:25:33. > :25:36.Osborne's cuts were reversed, what you and some of your backbench Tory
:25:37. > :25:42.colleagues want to do, how would that improve the incentives of the
:25:43. > :25:46.working poor, as they try to get on in life? They have to pay more tax,
:25:47. > :25:53.they lose some benefits. How would it improve it? Would many still face
:25:54. > :25:57.a 75% rate? The key question is first and foremost, as people move
:25:58. > :26:01.through income to the point where they are getting taxed, that group
:26:02. > :26:04.will be enormously benefited by the re-emergence of these allowances at
:26:05. > :26:10.the right level. That is what the IFS have said, that is what the
:26:11. > :26:14.Resolution Foundation are saying, and the Centre For Social Justice is
:26:15. > :26:17.saying. You have to get that group, because they are most likely to be
:26:18. > :26:22.drifting into poverty and less incomes are right. Would it help
:26:23. > :26:28.those who face a 75% margin? We don't face that. Exactly right.
:26:29. > :26:37.People much poorer than us do. I would love to get the marginal rate
:26:38. > :26:41.down to testify percent, and lower,. -- down to 65%. It is a balance of
:26:42. > :26:46.how you spend the money. I would prefer to do that rather than
:26:47. > :26:52.necessarily go ahead with threshold razors. I think the coronation of
:26:53. > :26:56.the marginal reduction of 65%, getting it down to 60%, plus more
:26:57. > :27:00.allowances, will allow Universal Credit to get to the group that is
:27:01. > :27:04.going to be, and the report written by the IFS and ourselves, it shows
:27:05. > :27:09.it is going to be the most dynamic and direct ability of a Government
:27:10. > :27:15.to be able to influence the way that people improve their incomes in the
:27:16. > :27:21.bottom five deciles. Would you take on extra work if you knew you were
:27:22. > :27:25.going to lose 75% of it? Even 6 %? This has been my argument all along.
:27:26. > :27:30.Universal Credit can help that enormously. One point that goes
:27:31. > :27:34.missing, 70% of the bottom five deciles will be on Universal Credit.
:27:35. > :27:37.Whatever change you make to Universal Credit has a dramatic and
:27:38. > :27:43.immediate effect I am arguing, genuinely, it is time to rethink
:27:44. > :27:46.this. The Prime Minister wants to make this a priority. I am
:27:47. > :27:51.completely with her on this. I think she made a really good start. To
:27:52. > :27:55.deliver this, we need to... You have a lot of work to do to deliver it.
:27:56. > :28:02.Because it is a manifesto commitment, or because they want to
:28:03. > :28:04.do it, stopping increasing the personal allowances are not
:28:05. > :28:07.acceptable, what about bringing to an end, by the end of the
:28:08. > :28:14.parliament, the pension triple lock that pensioners enjoy to improve and
:28:15. > :28:20.put more money to the working poor? What about that? Well, you are
:28:21. > :28:23.absolutely right that there is now the danger, I think, of a mess
:28:24. > :28:28.balance between the generations Quite rightly at the beginning, when
:28:29. > :28:33.we came in, we have a commitment as a Conservative Party in a manifesto
:28:34. > :28:38.to get pensions back onto earnings. It was moved to a triple lock that
:28:39. > :28:42.guaranteed a minimum. What about ending up now? I understand it is a
:28:43. > :28:45.promise through the Parliament, but after 2020? I am in favour of
:28:46. > :28:49.getting it back to innings and allowing it to rise at reasonable
:28:50. > :28:55.levels. Moving from earnings to the triple lock has cost ?18 billion
:28:56. > :28:59.this year. Here was a high, under pressure, as the Government was
:29:00. > :29:03.scratching around to pay more money out of working age areas, when the
:29:04. > :29:06.budget was almost out of control on the pension side. I'm in favour of
:29:07. > :29:11.helping pensioners, but now they are up to a reasonable level, at a
:29:12. > :29:14.steady rate, that can be afforded by Government, which takes the pressure
:29:15. > :29:17.off, working age people have to pay for that. In years to come, time to
:29:18. > :29:31.end the triple lock and use the savings to help these
:29:32. > :29:33.people we have been talking about? As part of a load of packages, yes.
:29:34. > :29:34.It would also help with the intergenerational fairness argument.
:29:35. > :29:37.Thank you for being with us. Now, a prominent London Imam
:29:38. > :29:39.called Shakeel Begg - who is Chief Imam the Lewisham
:29:40. > :29:42.Islamic Centre - is an extremist. That was the verdict of the judge
:29:43. > :29:46.in a libel action that Mr Begg took against the BBC, after we described
:29:47. > :29:49.him as an Islamic extremist Mr Begg had complained about a short
:29:50. > :29:53.segment in an interview in November 2013 with Farooq Murad,
:29:54. > :29:56.the then head of the Muslim Council of Britain, an organisation
:29:57. > :29:58.which claims to represent British In that interview, we described
:29:59. > :30:04.Mr Begg as an extremist speaker who had hailed jihad
:30:05. > :30:06.is the greatest of deeds. From his base of the Lewisham
:30:07. > :30:10.Islamic Centre, Mr Begg has been involved in a number of community
:30:11. > :30:13.organisations, including the Police Independent
:30:14. > :30:16.Advisory Group in Lewisham, Lewisham Council's Advisory Council
:30:17. > :30:21.on Religious Education and as a volunteer chaplain
:30:22. > :30:24.at Lewisham Hospital. But in his judgment,
:30:25. > :30:29.Mr Justice Haddon-Cave called Mr Begg a Jekyll and Hyde character
:30:30. > :30:32.- a trusted figure in his local community, but when talking
:30:33. > :30:36.to predominantly Muslim audiences he shed the cloak of respectability
:30:37. > :30:41.and revealed the horns of extremism. The judge cited one speech made
:30:42. > :30:44.by Mr Begg at a rally outside Belmarsh Prisonm-
:30:45. > :30:46.the high security prison that houses terrorists -
:30:47. > :30:50.as particularly sinister. The judge said the imam
:30:51. > :30:52.was expressing admiration and praise Following Friday's judgment,
:30:53. > :30:58.the hospital trust have told us that Mr Begg's status as a voluntary
:30:59. > :31:02.chaplain has been terminated. We have been told by
:31:03. > :31:06.Lewisham Council he is no longer on their Religious
:31:07. > :31:08.Education Committee. The Metropolitan Police
:31:09. > :31:10.have confirmed that Mr Begg remains a member
:31:11. > :31:15.of their Independent Advisory Group in Lewisham, as well as
:31:16. > :31:27.the borough's faith group. I am joined by Haras Rafiq, chief
:31:28. > :31:34.executive of the Quilliam Foundation. Welcome to the
:31:35. > :31:38.programme. I have here in my hand a statement from the trustees of the
:31:39. > :31:43.Lewisham Islamic Centre. They reject the judge's ruling as fanciful and
:31:44. > :31:47.say they are unequivocal and unwavering in their support of
:31:48. > :31:53.Shakeel Begg as their head imam What do you make of that? To be
:31:54. > :31:58.honest, it doesn't surprise me. At the end of the day he is only the
:31:59. > :32:02.imam of that mosque because he belongs to the same theological
:32:03. > :32:05.fundamentalist views that the mosque would portray. If they were to say
:32:06. > :32:11.he was an extremist, they would be saying in fact that they have
:32:12. > :32:14.allowed extremist preaching and extremist theology within their
:32:15. > :32:23.walls. I think this is a very important decision and a very
:32:24. > :32:26.important judgment by the judge First of all, these people like to
:32:27. > :32:31.operate in a linear, under a veneer of respectability. When that veneer
:32:32. > :32:35.is taken away, there are a number of things that can happen. First of
:32:36. > :32:42.all, the BBC did very well to stand by their guns and say, we're not
:32:43. > :32:46.going to be intimidated by somebody who is threatening to taking -- to
:32:47. > :32:51.take us to court for potential libel. Many other media companies
:32:52. > :32:56.have done that in the past and people have capitulated. Also, this
:32:57. > :33:01.has exposed him. Legally now, here's some deal can be classified as an
:33:02. > :33:05.extremist preacher, somebody who promotes religious violence. I think
:33:06. > :33:09.the mosque really needs to take a step back and say, how we part of
:33:10. > :33:13.the problem that we are facing within society? Or are we going to
:33:14. > :33:21.be part of the solution? It really concerns me. The High Court judge
:33:22. > :33:27.says that Mr Begg's speeches were consistent with an extremist
:33:28. > :33:37.Salafist is the most worldview. What is Salafist is and how widespread is
:33:38. > :33:43.it in UK mosques? -- mosque. It comes from the Middle East. It is
:33:44. > :33:50.from Saudi Arabia. The enemy for them was the old colonial Ottoman
:33:51. > :33:55.Empire. There is the quiet Salafist to get some with their lives, lives
:33:56. > :33:59.outside society. There is a revolutionary who tries to convert
:34:00. > :34:05.other people to their worldview And then there is the Salafist jihad
:34:06. > :34:09.ease. People like Islamic State etc. We have seen of increased in recent
:34:10. > :34:14.decades because of money that has, growing from the Middle East. When
:34:15. > :34:18.that is mixed with a political ideology, it becomes potent. Do we
:34:19. > :34:24.have a political -- particular problem in Britain with this in our
:34:25. > :34:28.mosques? Absolutely. Without the theology that says hate the other,
:34:29. > :34:32.hate other Muslims, that excommunicate other people, that
:34:33. > :34:36.says it is OK to fight and is good to fight when you have got an enemy,
:34:37. > :34:41.we wouldn't really have a jihadi problem. Really that is something we
:34:42. > :34:47.have to tackle. The number of mosques and institutions supporting
:34:48. > :34:52.Salafist and Islam is has been on the increase. Do we have a problem
:34:53. > :34:56.with what the judge called Jekyll and Hyde characters who hide their
:34:57. > :35:03.extremism except when they are speaking to specific groups?
:35:04. > :35:08.Absolutely. One of the things we have focused on in the past, a
:35:09. > :35:12.number of hate preachers now in prison, people like Anjem Choudary,
:35:13. > :35:16.and everybody focused on them. But there is a range of people operating
:35:17. > :35:20.under that level. People who will show one face to the community
:35:21. > :35:25.because they actually need that for a respectability. They need that for
:35:26. > :35:28.a legitimacy. They need that to operate. When they are behind closed
:35:29. > :35:32.doors and talking to their constitution, that is when you will
:35:33. > :35:38.see the real face of what these people believe. It is an increasing
:35:39. > :35:45.phenomenon. We are seeing it more. And we're going to carry on seeing
:35:46. > :35:50.it. Not just has the Lewisham mosque stuck by him, but given the clarity
:35:51. > :35:53.of the judge's ruling, are you surprised that the Metropolitan
:35:54. > :35:57.police would wish to continue with Mr Begg as an adviser? I'm
:35:58. > :36:01.absolutely shocked that that decision. What Uzzy going to do
:36:02. > :36:06.Advise them on how to deal with extremist preachers and promote
:36:07. > :36:10.religiously motivated violence? I don't know what he's going to advise
:36:11. > :36:15.them on. Because we now have a judge that has ruled against him and
:36:16. > :36:19.actually classified him as an extremist and somebody who promotes
:36:20. > :36:23.religious violence, we actually have a possibility for the CPS to
:36:24. > :36:27.actually prosecute him. There is a law that has been in place since
:36:28. > :36:32.2005 called religiously motivated violence. If he has been classified
:36:33. > :36:37.as somebody who promotes this, there is a potential for the CPS to
:36:38. > :36:39.prosecute. I want to called into question other organisations,
:36:40. > :36:46.interfaith organisations, other Muslims groups, who say they want to
:36:47. > :36:50.fight extremism, I call on them to say, this guy is an extremist
:36:51. > :36:59.preacher, we should cut our ties from him. This was a very high risk
:37:00. > :37:06.strategy by the BBC. The exposure could have been over ?1.5 million of
:37:07. > :37:10.licence payers money. Will this make it more difficult for Jekyll and
:37:11. > :37:15.Hyde characters to behave as Mr Begg has behaved? Absolutely. It will do.
:37:16. > :37:22.One of the things they will now have to make sure is that they are a lot
:37:23. > :37:26.more careful. Careful with what they say to their own constituency. It
:37:27. > :37:32.won't solve the theological problem. But it will actually stop other
:37:33. > :37:35.people from operating in this manner and allow other media organisations
:37:36. > :37:37.to have the confidence to expose them when they do. Haras Rafiq,
:37:38. > :37:40.thank you for joining us. It's just gone 11.35,
:37:41. > :37:42.you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers
:37:43. > :37:44.in Scotland, who leave us now Coming up here in 20 minutes,
:37:45. > :37:48.the Week Ahead. First though, the Sunday
:37:49. > :37:59.Politics where you are. Coming up later, a decision finally
:38:00. > :38:05.taken, now just a question of building the thing -
:38:06. > :38:08.with all the political, legal and planning
:38:09. > :38:11.problems that lie ahead. Joining me today, David Lammy,
:38:12. > :38:14.Labour MP for Todman, who is a Remainer and is pro that
:38:15. > :38:17.third runway, a decision Theresa Villiers, Conservative MP
:38:18. > :38:24.for Chipping Barnet is also here, a leading Brexiteer
:38:25. > :38:26.and opponent of a third runway. Let's start with the review
:38:27. > :38:30.of London's preparedness to deal with terrorism,
:38:31. > :38:33.which was published this week. It had more than 120
:38:34. > :38:35.recommendations in it. Broadly speaking, it finds
:38:36. > :38:37.the capital pretty well placed. Yes, I think Lord Harris
:38:38. > :38:45.was positive about London's ability But I think he also had some
:38:46. > :38:49.helpful suggestions. This is the sort of area
:38:50. > :38:52.where there is always more Some of the suggestions,
:38:53. > :38:57.I think, I don't think But, overall, I think this
:38:58. > :39:00.is a helpful contribution. Like the one he thinks we should be
:39:01. > :39:03.spending more time and attention looking at, merging the city
:39:04. > :39:05.force with the Met? You don't think we should be
:39:06. > :39:08.going along with that? I think those kind of structural
:39:09. > :39:10.reorganisations, in relation, for example, to the British
:39:11. > :39:12.Transport Police in the city, I think they would probably be
:39:13. > :39:15.a bit of a distraction. I don't think that should be
:39:16. > :39:17.the priority when it comes I think what is also useful
:39:18. > :39:22.from this report is that it is a reminder that these attacks
:39:23. > :39:27.are such a significant threat to London and could
:39:28. > :39:29.happen at any time. The Tories in the London Assembly,
:39:30. > :39:32.it is somewhat suggesting, their reaction this week,
:39:33. > :39:34.that it was a bit bland, Presumably, you can argue that
:39:35. > :39:38.number of recommendations I think it's surprising,
:39:39. > :39:45.for example, that Sadiq Khan or the Mayor of London is not
:39:46. > :39:48.going to Cobra meetings. The meetings of that gathering
:39:49. > :39:54.of security experts and politicians that always happens,
:39:55. > :39:56.we should make clear, the Cabinet committee,
:39:57. > :39:58.at a time of crisis? Let's remember, just last week,
:39:59. > :40:01.someone was arrested on the Jubilee Line
:40:02. > :40:05.with what apparently looked like a bomb.
:40:06. > :40:07.This is serious. The police have thwarted
:40:08. > :40:14.50 attacks since 2005. Actually, I think Lord Harris has
:40:15. > :40:18.done a really comprehensive job Things like alerts across London,
:40:19. > :40:21.on our mobile phones, so we can all be in touch,
:40:22. > :40:24.we can all stay connected. Actually, that ought
:40:25. > :40:26.to be happening routinely. And finding that the 600 extra armed
:40:27. > :40:29.officers that the capital is already getting, the Home Office
:40:30. > :40:34.and the Government had authorised It might send the wrong impression,
:40:35. > :40:41.psychosocial impression, he described it as,
:40:42. > :40:43.to the people that we are too I think a balance needs to be struck
:40:44. > :40:50.dependent on what's going on. Clearly, global affairs
:40:51. > :40:53.and international policy can sometimes drive the urgency,
:40:54. > :41:01.if you like, of our response. So, I would want to keep
:41:02. > :41:04.that as a question mark. Would you like to see
:41:05. > :41:06.more armed officers? Are people telling you they want
:41:07. > :41:10.more armed reassurance? I think there is already a lot
:41:11. > :41:13.of work being done on that. I know that the Met takes
:41:14. > :41:15.this very seriously, I think the report is quite
:41:16. > :41:20.interesting, on that. So, I don't think huge numbers
:41:21. > :41:29.of extra armed police is necessarily I think what is crucial
:41:30. > :41:33.is that we complete the Investigatory Powers Bill
:41:34. > :41:37.in the Houses of Commons and Parliament, because
:41:38. > :41:40.without those powers, our intelligence services
:41:41. > :41:43.are going to find themselves progressively less and less able
:41:44. > :41:46.to detect these plots before Worth a programme in itself,
:41:47. > :41:51.but we must move on. So, the Government finally took
:41:52. > :41:53.the plunge and gave its backing But there's quite a journey ahead,
:41:54. > :41:57.full of challenges - At last the Government's green light
:41:58. > :42:09.for a third runway at Heathrow. We believe a third runway
:42:10. > :42:13.for Heathrow is the best option for our future, it's the best
:42:14. > :42:16.for the whole country to create better connectivity
:42:17. > :42:18.for the different regions of the United Kingdom and to provide
:42:19. > :42:23.the best trade links to the world. So, London's airport capacity
:42:24. > :42:27.is set to be increased. And there's reason
:42:28. > :42:32.believe it might not. Residents near Heathrow have
:42:33. > :42:43.concerns about noise And political
:42:44. > :42:47.opposition is mounting. Are you still going to oppose
:42:48. > :42:50.Heathrow, Boris? One of the most high-profile
:42:51. > :42:53.Conservative backbenchers, Zac Goldsmith, has resigned to fight
:42:54. > :42:56.a by-election as an independent This project is almost certainly not
:42:57. > :43:03.going to be delivered. I believe this will be a millstone
:43:04. > :43:06.around this government's neck for many, many years to come -
:43:07. > :43:09.a constant source of delay, a constant source of
:43:10. > :43:12.anger and betrayal. But even though the Tories won't be
:43:13. > :43:16.standing a candidate against him, observers say there is a very strong
:43:17. > :43:19.chance the Lib Dems might The Prime Minister is expected
:43:20. > :43:28.to have enough votes in parliament for a third runway by almost two
:43:29. > :43:31.thirds, according to a ComRes poll. The question might not be settled
:43:32. > :43:36.in Parliament at all. At least five local councils,
:43:37. > :43:38.including Theresa May's own in Windsor and Maidenhead,
:43:39. > :43:40.will be fighting the They may even be getting some help
:43:41. > :43:44.from the Mayor of London. I think this is the wrong decision
:43:45. > :43:48.for London and the whole of Britain. I think the Government is riding
:43:49. > :43:53.roughshod over Londoners' views It's worth speaking to local
:43:54. > :43:55.councils now and exploring helping Heathrow may have got the green
:43:56. > :44:01.light from the Government, but following a potential judicial
:44:02. > :44:04.review into the environmental impact on locals, it might be looking
:44:05. > :44:11.at a red light from the courts. How much time should Sadiq Khan be
:44:12. > :44:16.spending continuing to oppose this? Sadiq has got to take his view
:44:17. > :44:22.on behalf of London and he is clear You pointed that out in the mayoral
:44:23. > :44:31.campaign, didn't you? During the mayoral campaign,
:44:32. > :44:33.I wanted to be Mayor. I was very keen to point out that
:44:34. > :44:36.Sadiq had flip-flopped on it. But it does feel that he
:44:37. > :44:39.is absolutely clear it He must also, I think,
:44:40. > :44:51.agree that we've got to move on There are real issues
:44:52. > :44:56.about a lack of capacity. In a post-Brexit environment
:44:57. > :44:58.particularly, where London could lose out, we have got
:44:59. > :45:02.to increase their capacity and therefore the Government,
:45:03. > :45:06.having settled on Heathrow, what I'm hoping now is that we can
:45:07. > :45:10.actually move forward and not just get stuck on the same old record,
:45:11. > :45:13.a record that has been turning now Theresa, when it is so
:45:14. > :45:19.controversial, when they have waited so long, we had Davies and then
:45:20. > :45:22.we have a big delay after Davies, as you pointed out before
:45:23. > :45:24.we started recording, you've talked about it in the studio
:45:25. > :45:27.so many times, going They wouldn't make this decision
:45:28. > :45:30.if it wasn't doable, it couldn't happen eventually,
:45:31. > :45:34.would you not say? Well, I think there is a reason why
:45:35. > :45:36.people have been talking about a third runway at Heathrow
:45:37. > :45:39.for 40 years and is not built it, about a third runway at Heathrow
:45:40. > :45:42.for 40 years and not built it, We have heard about
:45:43. > :45:47.huge legal problems. Remember, this construction project
:45:48. > :45:50.involves either tunnelling the M25 or somehow building a runway
:45:51. > :45:53.on a bridge over the M25. And that's before you get
:45:54. > :45:55.into the fact that Heathrow is already the biggest noise
:45:56. > :45:59.polluter in Europe. There are so many reasons why this
:46:00. > :46:02.is a bad idea and, yet, Gatwick we could deliver in half the time,
:46:03. > :46:05.half the cost. That simple point, if the logic
:46:06. > :46:07.is so obvious, how... Why have they made
:46:08. > :46:09.this decision, then? It's very frustrating,
:46:10. > :46:16.the fixation of the establishment of Heathrow is getting in the way
:46:17. > :46:19.of delivering a new runway. I agree we need airport capacity,
:46:20. > :46:22.but the only way to deliver it in the south-east is via Gatwick,
:46:23. > :46:24.because the problems Look, there have always been
:46:25. > :46:31.West London MPs or MPs in the flight Huge amounts of jobs
:46:32. > :46:49.will come as a consequence. Might I just say, London's young
:46:50. > :46:51.people, 10,000 plus apprentices Most importantly, the economy
:46:52. > :46:53.of West London, where the airport is situated, is the most important
:46:54. > :46:57.economy currently in Europe. Let us grow it so that
:46:58. > :47:00.all of the country can benefit. It looks like the SNP
:47:01. > :47:02.are going to support this proposal. Let's get on with it and not
:47:03. > :47:07.let the nimbys stop it. If that is going to be a crucial
:47:08. > :47:10.decision and the votes are in favour of it,
:47:11. > :47:13.what do you think it is that will stop it, that will make it
:47:14. > :47:16.undeliverable, if it goes and gets that political cross
:47:17. > :47:18.party endorsement? Well, I and others,
:47:19. > :47:20.and I would point out I'm not a West London MP,
:47:21. > :47:22.my constituency, thankfully, is not under the flight path,
:47:23. > :47:28.so it is not just people people who are concerned
:47:29. > :47:30.about their backyards that I think I will continue to make
:47:31. > :47:36.the case as part of this long process which the Government has
:47:37. > :47:38.undertaken for the better You know, Gatwick has been
:47:39. > :47:42.transformed as an airport since BAA, as it then was,
:47:43. > :47:46.was forced to sell it. The competition between our airports
:47:47. > :47:48.has dramatically improved Can I just ask from you,
:47:49. > :47:56.you feel very strongly about it why would you have never considered,
:47:57. > :47:59.why don't you make it a resigning issue and follow
:48:00. > :48:04.what Zac Goldsmith does? Well, people in politics care
:48:05. > :48:06.passionately about all sorts of issues, but it's very rare
:48:07. > :48:08.to trigger a by-election I respect the decision he has made,
:48:09. > :48:16.that was part of the platform on which he stood in
:48:17. > :48:18.the general election. Would you go and campaign for him
:48:19. > :48:22.during this by-election? Certainly I would support
:48:23. > :48:24.his campaign, yes. Do you expect frontbenchers,
:48:25. > :48:28.key figures in the party, I don't know what their
:48:29. > :48:32.intentions would be. Certainly, I would be very happy
:48:33. > :48:38.to help Zac. You have to agree, don't you,
:48:39. > :48:41.David Lammy, it is going to be a rugged, tough process,
:48:42. > :48:43.with four local authorities, Conservative local authorities,
:48:44. > :48:45.in the wings, ClientEarth, There are issues I think, still
:48:46. > :48:55.in relation to pollution, genuinely. And noise, specifically
:48:56. > :48:58.for those in the area. It is very likely we won't get
:48:59. > :49:01.there until actually That's more reason to have settled
:49:02. > :49:08.on a position and work Ready to go off and fly off
:49:09. > :49:14.somewhere, to enjoy your retirement. Going back, eight years
:49:15. > :49:17.ago with Geoff Hoon, he predicted technology would fix
:49:18. > :49:20.these pollution problems. He was wrong then, and I'm afraid
:49:21. > :49:22.the Government is Don't forget, the Davies Commission
:49:23. > :49:29.said they were satisfied that the carbon emissions,
:49:30. > :49:32.the standard was met. With, I think we will all agree
:49:33. > :49:38.a lot of work to be done We've touched on Brexit
:49:39. > :49:43.a little bit already, but it's 30 years since the big
:49:44. > :49:46.bang, the process of deregulation which enabled the City
:49:47. > :49:48.to become a world leader This week, the Mayor,
:49:49. > :49:53.Sadiq Khan, and senior figures from the City Corporation
:49:54. > :49:55.issued fresh warnings about the risks to that status
:49:56. > :49:58.from the so-called hard Brexit, Despite being a financial powerhouse
:49:59. > :50:05.and home to hundreds of banks in the early 1980s, London
:50:06. > :50:08.was thought to be in danger of falling behind rivals
:50:09. > :50:12.in New York. The Thatcher government
:50:13. > :50:14.believed reform was needed, and rather than introduce it
:50:15. > :50:17.gradually, they decided it should all come into force overnight
:50:18. > :50:19.in what became known On Monday, October 27th,
:50:20. > :50:30.1986, the London stock Gone were the crowded
:50:31. > :50:35.and chaotic trading floors that bred inefficency,
:50:36. > :50:37.replaced by electronic For the first time, foreign firms
:50:38. > :50:44.could buy up and own some That was the trigger of the gun
:50:45. > :50:50.being pulled saying, "Ladies and gentlemen worldwide
:50:51. > :50:52.London is open for international business
:50:53. > :50:56.and we are here." And of course, within five
:50:57. > :51:06.years they hit the skies. Over the next 30 years London became
:51:07. > :51:09.arguably the world's for most important financial centre,
:51:10. > :51:11.employing three quarters Our time zone, proximity and access
:51:12. > :51:23.to the European single market make London an attractive
:51:24. > :51:24.base for American Under EU passport rules,
:51:25. > :51:27.their location here enables them to sell their service
:51:28. > :51:31.across the Union. Meanwhile, free movement of people
:51:32. > :51:34.means Europe's best talent have But now, depending on the deal
:51:35. > :51:40.we get with Europe, Brexit could mean the loss of passporting
:51:41. > :51:43.and free movement. So some firms in London
:51:44. > :51:45.are exploring their options The big bang helped London
:51:46. > :51:52.secure its position as the market But now, 30 years on, after Brexit,
:51:53. > :52:01.could this be the turning point If we get a Brexit that largely
:52:02. > :52:07.maintains the ability national institutions based in Britain
:52:08. > :52:09.to operate in the European Union, and those in the European Union
:52:10. > :52:12.to operate in Britain, then the effect on jobs in London,
:52:13. > :52:14.jobs in the country, If we don't get that,
:52:15. > :52:19.there will be a loss of some functions over time and therefore
:52:20. > :52:21.the loss of jobs and The scenario is from a couple
:52:22. > :52:26.of thousand, if there is a Brexit that leaves us roughly where we are,
:52:27. > :52:29.to perhaps as many as 75,000 if we have no access
:52:30. > :52:31.to the single market But David Buick believes our closest
:52:32. > :52:38.European rivals are anything but. Frankfurt, I don't want to be
:52:39. > :52:42.disrespectful but I am going to be. It would take them ten years
:52:43. > :52:51.to build the infrastructure. Regardless of the economic arguments
:52:52. > :52:57.for London retaining its status as a financial centre of Europe
:52:58. > :52:59.Brexit negotiations mean there are serious political
:53:00. > :53:06.considerations, too. European politicians do economically
:53:07. > :53:09.self-defeating things all the time. You shouldn't be surprised if Paris
:53:10. > :53:12.and Berlin are now going to try to capitalise
:53:13. > :53:17.on Britain leaving the EU, in a potentially futile effort
:53:18. > :53:19.to turn their own cities I mean, you eventually run
:53:20. > :53:26.into economic reality in some form, but the politicians can keep
:53:27. > :53:29.going for an awfully long time This week, another big British
:53:30. > :53:35.economic project did finally But Heathrow watchers who have seen
:53:36. > :53:40.politics trump economics on that issue for decades,
:53:41. > :53:43.will be wary of European leaders who have to balance their own
:53:44. > :53:45.political realities And David, big car firms saying
:53:46. > :53:57.they are going to start investing The City showing
:53:58. > :54:02.that it's resilient. It has always come up new solutions
:54:03. > :54:06.and kept its pre-eminent position. There is a lot of exaggerated
:54:07. > :54:08.fear here, isn't there? We're living in very,
:54:09. > :54:15.very serious times, in which the pound has fallen,
:54:16. > :54:18.in which we are hearing very consistently from our major banks
:54:19. > :54:21.and from the City that if we don't get those passporting rules,
:54:22. > :54:25.they are off. And frankly, with an economy
:54:26. > :54:27.in Britain, and this is the fundamental point,
:54:28. > :54:29.where 80% of our economy is based on services,
:54:30. > :54:32.we are not manufacturing in the way If we lose this, then those
:54:33. > :54:38.services could go. They could go elsewhere,
:54:39. > :54:40.and they will go elsewhere. Why would these City figures bother
:54:41. > :54:47.to warn if there was not Well, it's very important that
:54:48. > :54:53.during the Brexit negotiations the UK looks to see,
:54:54. > :54:55.to do everything we can As you say, London has
:54:56. > :55:02.always been resilient. It is the most successful financial
:55:03. > :55:06.centre on earth. It is in the interest
:55:07. > :55:11.of the United Kingdom and the EU, that London continues to be
:55:12. > :55:13.successful, because it serves Do you expect there to be no loss
:55:14. > :55:21.of any kind of strength opposition? That current arrangements will be
:55:22. > :55:23.transferred across in I think we can deliver
:55:24. > :55:28.passporting-type arrangements. But I also think it's crucial
:55:29. > :55:31.to recognise that actually London does all sorts of business
:55:32. > :55:33.across Europe which doesn't involve the passport anyway
:55:34. > :55:35.because of the focus It is possible to deliver
:55:36. > :55:43.a successful outcome through these negotiations for the city,
:55:44. > :55:45.because it is in the interest It's the consultants,
:55:46. > :55:55.it's the lawyers. All of that comes off
:55:56. > :55:57.the back of that trading. That's why passporting
:55:58. > :56:01.is so important. Why would the European Union give us
:56:02. > :56:04.those rights when we have They'll want it for
:56:05. > :56:06.the European Union. It's all well and good to say,
:56:07. > :56:09."I think we will get it." That, I think, particularly
:56:10. > :56:24.if we actually move forward with Article 50, is going
:56:25. > :56:27.to lead to an enormous So far you have been proved wrong
:56:28. > :56:32.in terms of the economic shock that you and other Remainers
:56:33. > :56:34.were predicting. How do we account for
:56:35. > :56:36.third-quarter figures? The economic shock happens
:56:37. > :56:39.the moment we press Most economists are predicting,
:56:40. > :56:45.it's the first quarter of next year I believe that we will get a good
:56:46. > :56:54.trading deal from the European Union because it is manifestly
:56:55. > :56:56.in their interest that we do so Most member states have
:56:57. > :56:58.nothing resembling their They will continue
:56:59. > :57:05.to depend on London. They won't take kindly
:57:06. > :57:09.to their businesses being told that they don't have access to those
:57:10. > :57:11.liquid capital markets, which frankly no other financial
:57:12. > :57:13.centre in Europe can The reality is, if there
:57:14. > :57:19.is a politically driven attempt to try to undermine London's place
:57:20. > :57:22.as Europe's financial centre, the only other place they're
:57:23. > :57:26.going to go is New York. This is in our interest,
:57:27. > :57:28.it is in the EU's interest, to make sure we have an orderly
:57:29. > :57:31.transition to a new arrangement Of course it's in the EU's interests
:57:32. > :57:35.to have a trading relationship. But it is also in their interests
:57:36. > :57:38.to preserve the EU. And in many countries in the EU
:57:39. > :57:41.there are movements And for those reasons,
:57:42. > :57:46.when we get to the negotiation, as has been said by European
:57:47. > :57:51.leaders, it will be hardball. There is much we have
:57:52. > :57:54.now that we will no longer have Ten seconds to reassure,
:57:55. > :57:57.to come back? London is going to continue to be
:57:58. > :58:00.the biggest and best financial And it is in the interest of the UK
:58:01. > :58:06.and EU that that continues. The EU has already got enough
:58:07. > :58:08.problems with financial markets Now, for the rest of the political
:58:09. > :58:24.news in 60 seconds. Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson has
:58:25. > :58:27.been urged to do more for Anglo Iranian aid worker
:58:28. > :58:31.Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, detained in Iran
:58:32. > :58:34.accused of espionage. The 37-year-old charity worker
:58:35. > :58:36.from Hampstead was originally arrested at Tehran airport
:58:37. > :58:39.on April three along Sadiq Khan has met with
:58:40. > :58:46.a cross-party group of London MPs to support a push for a devolution
:58:47. > :58:49.deal in the Autumn Statement. The Mayor argued that giving
:58:50. > :58:52.City Hall and London's boroughs more control would allow the city
:58:53. > :58:55.to better manage the potential Wimbledon MP Stephen Hammond raised
:58:56. > :59:01.the issue of Crossrail 2 Could my right honourable friend
:59:02. > :59:10.assure me that the Government still supports Crossrail 2,
:59:11. > :59:13.and would she ask the Secretary of State to set the timetable
:59:14. > :59:17.for the delayed consultation? We are waiting to see a robust
:59:18. > :59:20.business case and a proper funding Very quickly, at the end of the week
:59:21. > :59:37.a private members' bill on homelessness got through,
:59:38. > :59:38.got government support. It will allow local authorities
:59:39. > :59:41.or give them the obligation to do much more for people who are thrown
:59:42. > :59:44.out of their private rented homes. I felt it was a good
:59:45. > :59:48.day for Parliament. I have huge respect for my
:59:49. > :59:50.colleague, Bob Blackman, who is taking this bill forward
:59:51. > :59:53.because it will help some of the most vulnerable people
:59:54. > :59:57.in our community avoid homelessness. It is the biggest upgrade
:59:58. > :59:59.and modernisation of our laws on homelessness that we've
:00:00. > :00:02.seen in this country. And a lot of collaboration,
:00:03. > :00:04.cross-party? Of course it was cross-party
:00:05. > :00:06.because right across London we can see the chronic homelessness
:00:07. > :00:08.on our streets. There are kids without
:00:09. > :00:11.homes in London. But the question will be,
:00:12. > :00:13.can we give local government in London the resources to meet
:00:14. > :00:15.these statutory obligations The other question everybody
:00:16. > :00:22.was raising, we wouldn't be in this position if you guys were just
:00:23. > :00:25.building more houses? Well, all parties accept the need
:00:26. > :00:27.to build more houses For example, the borough I live in,
:00:28. > :00:32.Barnet, is delivering more houses Labour failed to deliver
:00:33. > :00:39.us the homes we need. Theresa Villiers, David Lammy,
:00:40. > :00:46.thank you very much for coming in. And Andrew, with that,
:00:47. > :00:58.it is back to you. Barely more than a week
:00:59. > :01:02.now until polling day, and a new revelation rocks the US
:01:03. > :01:12.Presidential election campaign. If it wasn't bizarre enough, it just
:01:13. > :01:15.got more bizarre. The FBI have reopened their
:01:16. > :01:18.investigation into Hillary Clinton's use of private email servers
:01:19. > :01:20.whilst she was Secretary of State, after the discovery
:01:21. > :01:28.of further emails. Though not on her laptop or even the
:01:29. > :01:33.State Department. Donald Trump is saying that it's
:01:34. > :01:35.bigger than Watergate - so could it swing the election
:01:36. > :01:37.in his favour? We spoke to top US
:01:38. > :01:39.pollster, Frank Luntz. The FBI investigation is happening
:01:40. > :01:43.so late in the election process that it would be very difficult
:01:44. > :01:47.to derail a Clinton victory. That said, if there is one thing
:01:48. > :01:50.that could keep Hillary Clinton from the presidency,
:01:51. > :01:56.it's an FBI investigation. But there's still only four states
:01:57. > :01:58.that really matter, Florida, Ohio, Right now, Clinton has
:01:59. > :02:03.beyond the margin of error leads This would have to have a truly
:02:04. > :02:10.significant impact for the election There is a point about a week ago
:02:11. > :02:18.when I was prepared to say that Clinton had a 95% chance
:02:19. > :02:23.of winning this election. Based on what has happened
:02:24. > :02:29.in the last 48 hours, It is still very likely,
:02:30. > :02:34.but I wouldn't bet on it. I thought the 2000 election would be
:02:35. > :02:37.the best election of my lifetime, And then I thought 2008 would be
:02:38. > :02:42.amazing, because we had two challenger candidates and the first
:02:43. > :02:45.African-American President. It is ugly, it's painful,
:02:46. > :02:54.it is as negative as anything The public is angry,
:02:55. > :03:00.the country, overall, is frustrated. But for entertainment value,
:03:01. > :03:07.these candidates probably should have charged us money,
:03:08. > :03:11.because it's better than any movie at ever seen, it's
:03:12. > :03:24.better than any TV show. That was Frank Luntz. He may be
:03:25. > :03:31.right or wrong about Mrs Clinton still having an 80% chance of
:03:32. > :03:35.winning. I would bet on an 80% chance? Yes, absolutely. I spoke to
:03:36. > :03:38.a high-profile American pollster and strategist last night and he took a
:03:39. > :03:45.rather different view to Frank Luntz. He thought, and I think some
:03:46. > :03:47.other high-profile commentators agree, that this is actually much
:03:48. > :03:53.more serious than some people realise. There are an awful lot of
:03:54. > :03:57.undecided voters out there looking for an excuse to vote Trump. They do
:03:58. > :04:01.not like what they see in either candidate. But because this FBI
:04:02. > :04:07.probe is not going to conclude before the election, the question,
:04:08. > :04:11.the doubt over Hillary Clinton, gives them an excuse to back Trump.
:04:12. > :04:16.The thing that will play on the minds of the voters is, could the
:04:17. > :04:21.100 day honeymoon turning to the 100 day divorce? Which even be
:04:22. > :04:27.impeached? It may give some people an excuse not to vote for Mrs
:04:28. > :04:31.Clinton. It could provide a problem in terms of energising her base The
:04:32. > :04:38.battle ground almost matters more than the polls. Florida and
:04:39. > :04:44.Pennsylvania have been trending to Mrs Clinton. Mr Trump needs to win
:04:45. > :04:53.both. He does not get in without both. He needs both. Just coming up
:04:54. > :04:56.in the latest BBC News, the Washington Post tracking poll, Mrs
:04:57. > :05:03.Clinton is now only one point ahead in the national poll. One point
:05:04. > :05:10.Even given my caveat that the state battles are most important. That is
:05:11. > :05:17.incredibly close? It is. Polls yesterday showed Trump nationally
:05:18. > :05:19.closing of. -- up. There is a clear trend and movement. This has
:05:20. > :05:25.reinforced everything that people who have a problem with Hillary
:05:26. > :05:29.Clinton know about Hillary Clinton. Trump is running this insurgent
:05:30. > :05:34.campaign. We have seen at here with Brexit. If you are running an
:05:35. > :05:36.insurgent campaign, you want to be against the ultimate establishment
:05:37. > :05:42.insider and that is what Hillary Clinton is. I suggested it was
:05:43. > :05:47.bizarre. Fathoming the behaviour of the FBI is interesting as well. This
:05:48. > :05:51.is a separate investigation into a former congressman, Anthony Wiener,
:05:52. > :05:59.who had done all sorts of things. He seemed to be sex text thing a minor.
:06:00. > :06:04.A 15-year-old girl. The FBI investigate. They get his laptop to
:06:05. > :06:10.see what else he has been too. In the course of that, his wife, now
:06:11. > :06:16.separated, the closest adviser to Hillary Clinton, they find on the
:06:17. > :06:27.laptop e-mails involving the Clinton server to her. And yet the FBI
:06:28. > :06:31.cannot, it needs now a separate warrant to access these e-mails It
:06:32. > :06:35.hasn't got that yet. It has got a warrant to do the congressman
:06:36. > :06:42.e-mails. On the basis of not knowing the content, this has happened.
:06:43. > :06:47.Yeah. Who knows? He is a Republican, this guy. Earlier this year he was
:06:48. > :06:53.being praised to the hilt by Democrats. Absolutely. The timing is
:06:54. > :06:59.a nightmare for her. You described the whole sequence. There is nothing
:07:00. > :07:07.definitive to doubt in this sequence. All he is saying is he has
:07:08. > :07:14.discovered more e-mails in effect. They are from the congressman's
:07:15. > :07:19.former wife. On Anthony Wiener's laptop, which apparently she used
:07:20. > :07:23.sometimes. But what that shows is that for all the scrutiny of modern
:07:24. > :07:28.politicians, they cannot escape caricature. And as Tim was just
:07:29. > :07:34.saying, her weakness is perceived to be secretive, elitism and
:07:35. > :07:38.complacency about that elitism. And so just the announcement of a
:07:39. > :07:43.reopening of the investigation so fuels that caricature, you have just
:07:44. > :07:50.revealed a poll giving her a 1% lead. That must be related to what
:07:51. > :07:55.has happened. It is without a shred of evidence that she has done
:07:56. > :07:58.anything wrong. You can see how because people only see things
:07:59. > :08:05.encourage kids, that is deadly serious. -- in caricature. An
:08:06. > :08:10.American friend of mine said we have got our October surprise but we
:08:11. > :08:15.don't know what it is. The FBI must surely come under massive pressure.
:08:16. > :08:22.It did its -- it did this against the Justice Department. The
:08:23. > :08:27.difficulty the FBI had was that this information, for what it's worth, it
:08:28. > :08:30.came to them. Were they not to have said something and it worked to have
:08:31. > :08:35.come out later, they would have been accused of a massive cover-up. They
:08:36. > :08:40.are dammed if they do, dammed if they don't. There is still time for
:08:41. > :08:43.another surprise. And early November surprise. Who knows if there might
:08:44. > :08:49.still be something that comes out on Donald Trump? This is the first
:08:50. > :08:55.election where I can remember we have had two October surprises
:08:56. > :08:59.already. There are is stuff about tapes knocking around about Donald
:09:00. > :09:03.Trump saying racist things. The Clintons have got a lot of friends.
:09:04. > :09:05.It would be a big surprise if we did not see anything else in the next
:09:06. > :09:11.few days. Just when you think it could not get
:09:12. > :09:14.more interesting, it has. There has been plenty in the papers lately
:09:15. > :09:17.about the Ukip leadership saying unpleasant things about each other.
:09:18. > :09:20.But what about Mr Farage himself? What's he up to?
:09:21. > :09:22.Well, on BBC Two tonight we may find out the answer.
:09:23. > :09:29.Well, I'm led to believe she's very experienced.
:09:30. > :09:32.But I don't think Strictly Come Dancing is for me.
:09:33. > :09:38.That is, unless, of course, you fancy popping a cheeky zero
:09:39. > :09:41.No, I don't think Strictly Come Dancing is for me.
:09:42. > :09:48.Well, you tell Mr Balls he has just lost your programme one viewer.
:09:49. > :09:56.I might have nothing to do these days but, realistically,
:09:57. > :10:13.Well, that wasn't Nigel Farage. It is a BBC comedy on tonight. Nigel
:10:14. > :10:17.Farage gets his life back. A number of runners and riders. Let's come
:10:18. > :10:22.straight down to it. Who would be the next leader of Ukip? Probably
:10:23. > :10:29.Paul Nuttall. He is the favourite. The one who has the backing, not
:10:30. > :10:36.very enthusiastic backing, is Rahim Cassandra. And also Aaron Banks a
:10:37. > :10:43.big donor. The best of a rather weak lot. I think Paul Nuttall should
:10:44. > :10:54.squeak through. I interviewed all three of them this week. Mr
:10:55. > :10:58.Cassandra is a lively character and he knows how to make a few
:10:59. > :11:02.headlines. With a bit of money behind him, anything is possible.
:11:03. > :11:12.This is a guy who has been to the States, who has literally studied
:11:13. > :11:16.what Trump has done. Pees on secondment for the time being. The
:11:17. > :11:22.guy who is his line manager is one of Donald Trump's campaign stop He
:11:23. > :11:27.is extraordinarily right-wing. I am told he kept a picture of Enoch
:11:28. > :11:38.Powell by his bed. Barry Goldwater is one of his heroes, for example.
:11:39. > :11:44.There are other candidates. I would suggest, put out as a hypothesis,
:11:45. > :11:50.Paul Nuttall is Labour's worst nightmare. They are more vulnerable
:11:51. > :11:52.in the North. Paul Nuttall is from Merseyside, a working-class
:11:53. > :11:57.background, performs well on television. He is a really good
:11:58. > :12:02.interviewee. He is one of the best around in politics at the moment.
:12:03. > :12:06.However, I think whoever gets it has a massive task. The clip of this
:12:07. > :12:13.Nigel Farage satire partly shows why. His dominance was overwhelming.
:12:14. > :12:18.He, in many ways, did a brilliant job at keeping the show on the road.
:12:19. > :12:22.The trouble for all new political parties is keeping it going is
:12:23. > :12:27.tough. A very different party, the SDP, with all those glamorous
:12:28. > :12:31.figures in it, lasted eight years, something like that. I think they
:12:32. > :12:34.are in real trouble at the moment because of the implosion we have
:12:35. > :12:40.been seeing in front of our eyes and the ideal -- ideological splits
:12:41. > :12:49.Whoever gets it will face a tough tussle. All three of the main
:12:50. > :12:54.contenders want to put Nigel Farage in the House of Lords. They were
:12:55. > :12:57.falling over themselves to soak up two farads. That is how you win this
:12:58. > :13:03.election. Mr Aaron Banks, who is he putting
:13:04. > :13:08.his money on? He said he supports Rahim. I know Mr Banks is utterly
:13:09. > :13:12.fed with the shenanigans in Ukip. He thinks it is terribly disorganised,
:13:13. > :13:16.dysfunctional and doesn't want a great deal to do with it for the
:13:17. > :13:20.foreseeable future. It is not quite Trump the Clinton
:13:21. > :13:26.but it is interesting. That is it. The Daily Politics is back tomorrow.
:13:27. > :13:31.And all of next week. Jo Coburn will be your next Sunday because I am off
:13:32. > :13:35.to the United States to begin to rehearse presenting the BBC's US
:13:36. > :13:39.election night coverage on the th of November. It will be here on BBC
:13:40. > :13:40.One, BBC world, BBC News Channel and BBC
:13:41. > :13:42.online. Remember if it's Sunday,
:13:43. > :14:12.it's the Sunday Politics. A stone stained with blood
:14:13. > :14:16.and beset with a curse. The Moonstone is of
:14:17. > :14:19.inestimable value in India. Its appointed guardians would move
:14:20. > :14:23.heaven and earth to reclaim it Let us not let the past haunt
:14:24. > :14:32.all of our actions. You've got to do something!
:14:33. > :14:32.It's only you that can! He's a scientist,
:14:33. > :14:35.brilliant apparently.