30/10/2016

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:00:37. > :00:40.Morning folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics.

:00:41. > :00:42.Theresa May says she wants to help people who are

:00:43. > :00:45."just about managing" - so should she reverse

:00:46. > :00:48.George Osborne's cuts to benefits that are supposed to help people

:00:49. > :00:55.Prominent London Imam Shakeel Begg is an extremist speaker,

:00:56. > :00:58.says the High Court, after claims made on this programme.

:00:59. > :01:03.So why is Mr Begg still being allowed to advise the Police?

:01:04. > :01:08.Hillary Clinton fights back over the FBI's renewed investigation

:01:09. > :01:11.into her use of a private email server - is this the boost

:01:12. > :01:20.Donald Trump needed to reignite his chances of winning the White House?

:01:21. > :01:26.London, a decision finally taken. Now it is just a question of

:01:27. > :01:32.building that runway with the political problems that lie ahead.

:01:33. > :01:35.And haunting the studio on this Halloween weekend,

:01:36. > :01:37.the most terrifying political panel in the business -

:01:38. > :01:40.Tim 'Ghost' Shipman, 'Eerie' Isabel Oakeshott and

:01:41. > :01:49.First this morning, two new models of car to be built,

:01:50. > :01:52.securing 7,000 jobs at the car plant in Sunderland and a further 28, 00

:01:53. > :01:58.The news from Nissan on Thursday was seized on by Leave campaigners

:01:59. > :02:01.as evidence that the British economy is in rude health

:02:02. > :02:04.This morning, the Business Secretary, Greg Clark, was asked

:02:05. > :02:08.what assurances were given to the Japanese firm's bosses

:02:09. > :02:14.Well, it's in no-one's the interest for there to be tariff

:02:15. > :02:20.barriers to the continent and vice versa.

:02:21. > :02:23.So, what I said is that our objective would be to ensure that we

:02:24. > :02:28.have continued access to the markets in Europe and vice versa, without

:02:29. > :02:32.tariffs and without bureaucratic impediments.

:02:33. > :02:36.That is how we will approach those negotiations.

:02:37. > :02:38.We're joined now from Newcastle by the Shadow Business

:02:39. > :02:52.Welcome to the programme. Labour has been a bit sceptical about this

:02:53. > :02:56.Nissan decision. Can we begin by making it clear just what a great

:02:57. > :03:01.achievement this is, above all for the workers of Sunderland who have

:03:02. > :03:06.some of the highest productivity in the world, have never been on strike

:03:07. > :03:12.for 30 years, and produce cars of incredible quality. This is their

:03:13. > :03:16.victory, isn't it? Andrew, you are absolutely right. The Nissan plant

:03:17. > :03:21.in Sunderland is among the most productive in the world. The workers

:03:22. > :03:27.of Nissan are amongst the most productive as well. And it's really

:03:28. > :03:30.a victory for them and for the trade unions and the business

:03:31. > :03:32.organisations, and everybody who campaigned to make sure that the

:03:33. > :03:40.government couldn't ignore their future. It's our future. I'm the MP

:03:41. > :03:43.for Newcastle. It makes a huge difference to the region. We are a

:03:44. > :03:46.region that still likes to make things that work. It is a huge part

:03:47. > :03:53.of our advanced manufacturing sector. So it's really something we

:03:54. > :03:59.welcome as well as the job security. I'm glad we have got that on the

:04:00. > :04:03.record from the Labour shadow business secretary. But your Shadow

:04:04. > :04:06.Chancellor, John McDonnell, claims the government is ignoring

:04:07. > :04:12.manufacturers and cares only about a small banking elite. In what way is

:04:13. > :04:15.safeguarding 30,000 industrial jobs in the North safeguarding a

:04:16. > :04:21.financial elite? As I said, we're really pleased that the campaigning

:04:22. > :04:24.by trade unions and the workforce, and business organisations, meant

:04:25. > :04:28.the government felt they couldn t ignore Nissan workers. Let's also be

:04:29. > :04:31.clear that we want that kind of job security for all of those working in

:04:32. > :04:36.manufacturing and in other sectors as well. And sweetheart deals for

:04:37. > :04:42.one company, no matter how important they are, that does not an

:04:43. > :04:49.industrial strategy make. Why'd you say it is a sweetheart deal? Greg

:04:50. > :04:52.Clark told the BBC this morning that what was assured to Nissan is an

:04:53. > :04:57.assurance he gives to the whole industrial sector? I was really

:04:58. > :05:02.pleased to see Greg Clark felt he had to say something, even though

:05:03. > :05:07.it's sad that we having our industrial strategy, you like, or

:05:08. > :05:12.our approach to Brexit delivered piecemeal to the media rather than

:05:13. > :05:16.to the British people and Nissan, actually. But he want published the

:05:17. > :05:20.letter. He said he has told us what is in the letter and that

:05:21. > :05:25.reassurances given on training, on science and on supporting the supply

:05:26. > :05:31.chain for the automated sector. You must be in favour all -- of all of

:05:32. > :05:36.that? We are in favour of an industrial strategy. Greg Clark

:05:37. > :05:42.unlike Sajid Javid, cannot say industrial strategy. I'm still

:05:43. > :05:48.puzzling to find out what it is you disagree with. Let me put the

:05:49. > :05:54.question. You said the assurances he has given to Nissan are available to

:05:55. > :05:59.the car manufacturing sector in general and indeed to industry in

:06:00. > :06:04.general. What is your problem with that? Two things. Let him publish

:06:05. > :06:09.the letter so we can see that, let him have the transparency he's

:06:10. > :06:13.pretending to offer. But also, we need an industrial strategy that

:06:14. > :06:21.values -- that is values based and joined. He talked about electric

:06:22. > :06:26.cars and supporting green cars. That was in regard to Nissan. At the same

:06:27. > :06:31.time the government has slashed support for other areas of green

:06:32. > :06:37.technology. So what is it? That is not to do with the Nissan deal.

:06:38. > :06:41.Labour implied at some stage there was some financial inducement, some

:06:42. > :06:46.secret bribes, that doesn't seem to be the case. You are not claiming

:06:47. > :06:49.that any more -- any more. Then you claimed it was a sweetheart deal for

:06:50. > :06:58.one company. That turns out not to be the case. What criticism are you

:06:59. > :07:03.left with on this Nissan deal? I would be really surprised if all

:07:04. > :07:07.that Nissan got was the reassurances that Greg Clark is shared with us.

:07:08. > :07:12.He didn't answer the question of what happens if we can't get

:07:13. > :07:16.continued tariff free access to the single market, if we are not within

:07:17. > :07:22.the single market or the Customs Union. Do you really think a

:07:23. > :07:25.negotiator like Nissan, who are very good at negotiating, they would have

:07:26. > :07:30.excepted making this significant investment without some further

:07:31. > :07:34.reassurances? Do you think there is some kind of financial bride and if

:07:35. > :07:39.so what is the evidence? I would like to see the letter published and

:07:40. > :07:44.I would also like to understand what would happen... There are 27

:07:45. > :07:50.countries which need to agree with the deal we have from Brexit. What

:07:51. > :07:55.will Nissan, how will Nissan remain competitive? How will the automotive

:07:56. > :08:00.industry remain competitive? Greg Clark says he reassured them on

:08:01. > :08:08.that. But how will that be so if we do not get access? We haven't heard

:08:09. > :08:12.anything about that. He talks about reassurances given to Nissan. We

:08:13. > :08:15.need to make -- to know where we're going to make sure Brexit is in the

:08:16. > :08:19.interest of all workers, not only those who work for a Nissan and not

:08:20. > :08:25.only those who can get the attention of Greg Clark. He assured Nissan

:08:26. > :08:29.that Britain would remain a competitive place to do business.

:08:30. > :08:33.That was the main assurance he gave them. He would help with skills and

:08:34. > :08:38.infrastructure and all the rest Since you are -- intend to repeal

:08:39. > :08:42.the trade union laws that have made strikes in Britain largely a thing

:08:43. > :08:45.of the past, and you plan to raise corporation tax, you couldn't give

:08:46. > :08:52.Nissan the same assurance, could you? We could absolutely give Nissan

:08:53. > :08:55.the assurance that we will be, our vision of the future of the UK, is

:08:56. > :09:07.based on having a strong manufacturing sector. Repealing

:09:08. > :09:11.trade union laws? As we have seen at Nissan, the industrial sector is

:09:12. > :09:17.dependent on having highly trained, well skilled workers. -- highly

:09:18. > :09:23.skilled, well-trained. You don't have that by getting -- having an

:09:24. > :09:27.aggressive policy and trade union laws or by slashing corporation tax

:09:28. > :09:30.and not supporting manufacturing investment. Remember, the last

:09:31. > :09:36.government took away the Manufacturing allowances which

:09:37. > :09:39.supported Manufacturing and slashed corporation tax. That is their

:09:40. > :09:45.solution. It is a low tax, low skill economy they want.

:09:46. > :09:49.Thank you. Sorry I had to rush you. I'm grateful for you joining us

:09:50. > :09:58.I'm still struggling to see what is left of Labour's criticism? Yeah,

:09:59. > :10:02.except for this. This was a valid point she just made. What we know

:10:03. > :10:07.for sure is that Greg Clark could say to Nissan, my aim is to get

:10:08. > :10:11.tariff free deal. There is no way he could guarantee that. None of us

:10:12. > :10:19.know that. I don't think that was enough. I think clearly there was a

:10:20. > :10:24.more detailed package involving training and other things. He has

:10:25. > :10:27.acknowledged this, albeit we do not know the precise mechanism. What I

:10:28. > :10:31.think is interesting about this is if you reverse what happened this

:10:32. > :10:33.week, at a time when the government says Britain is open for business

:10:34. > :10:39.and it is going to have an industrial strategy, so far it is a

:10:40. > :10:43.bit vaguely defined. Nissan hadn't made this commitment. Imagine what

:10:44. > :10:46.would have happened? It is an impossible scenario. The government

:10:47. > :10:52.seems to me was obliged to make sure this didn't happen. Let's not forget

:10:53. > :10:56.Nissan has invested hundreds of millions in the north-east. It has

:10:57. > :11:01.been a huge success story. When I spoke to workers from Nissan, they

:11:02. > :11:05.were so proud because they went to Japan to teach the Japanese had to

:11:06. > :11:08.be more productive. The idea that Nissan was just going to walk away

:11:09. > :11:13.from this given its track record, its importance, wasn't really

:11:14. > :11:18.credible. The government had some bargaining chips. Absolutely, of

:11:19. > :11:22.course they weren't going to walk away. The majority of people in the

:11:23. > :11:27.area in which Nissan is braced - based, voted for Brexit. Nissan

:11:28. > :11:30.knows it is in a powerful position because it is an emotive sector

:11:31. > :11:35.Clearly the government didn't want to have some big showdown. I

:11:36. > :11:40.honestly don't think this is a smoking gun. The Labour Shadow

:11:41. > :11:44.minister really struggled to articulate what exactly she thinks

:11:45. > :11:49.the government is hiding. I think the reassurances were given were

:11:50. > :11:51.pretty anodyne, really. They were anodyne and general. And what Greg

:11:52. > :11:56.Clark was setting out was an objective and he made the right

:11:57. > :11:59.noises, and Nissan exercised its right to sabre rattle. It does have

:12:00. > :12:05.a history of doing that. The one thing that would now be clear given

:12:06. > :12:08.Greg Clark's performance this morning on the BBC, is that if we

:12:09. > :12:13.were to discover some kind of financial incentive directly linked

:12:14. > :12:18.to this investment, not more for skills or infrastructure, that is

:12:19. > :12:21.fine, but some direct financial investment, compensation for

:12:22. > :12:24.tariffs, which would be illegal under World Trade Organisation

:12:25. > :12:28.rules, what you might call a financial bride, the sect -- the

:12:29. > :12:34.business Secretary's position would be untenable? He would be in a very

:12:35. > :12:37.difficult position indeed. Just released the letter. There is

:12:38. > :12:40.nothing to hide. Put it out there. The most revealing thing is that

:12:41. > :12:45.people are getting wildly excited about the fact Greg Clark announced

:12:46. > :12:50.Britain's negotiating position would be that we would like tariff free

:12:51. > :12:53.trade with Europe. This is regarded as an insight into what this comment

:12:54. > :12:56.is doing and it says a great deal about how little we have been told

:12:57. > :13:02.in Parliament and the media about what they are up. Do you think it is

:13:03. > :13:09.exciting we are going for tariff free trade? We're easily excited

:13:10. > :13:13.these days. We don't know. This is where these things are at such a

:13:14. > :13:16.tentative phase. We don't know how the rest of the European Union is

:13:17. > :13:25.going to respond to Britain's negotiating hand. We know Britain

:13:26. > :13:30.once the best of everything, please. It is a starting point. But that is

:13:31. > :13:32.not how it is going to end up. We are getting wider than that. We have

:13:33. > :13:34.will have to see. Now, Universal Credit,

:13:35. > :13:36.a single payment made to welfare claimants that would roll together

:13:37. > :13:38.a plethora of benefits whilst encouraging people into work

:13:39. > :13:41.by making work pay. But have cuts to the flagship

:13:42. > :13:43.welfare scheme reduced work incentives and hit the incomes

:13:44. > :13:49.of the least well-off? Well, some of the government's

:13:50. > :13:51.own MPs think so, and, as Mark Lobel reports,

:13:52. > :13:57.want the cuts reversed. Theresa May says she wants

:13:58. > :14:00.a country that works for everyone, that's on the side

:14:01. > :14:05.of ordinary, working people. It means never writing off people

:14:06. > :14:08.who can work and consigning them to a life on benefits,

:14:09. > :14:11.but giving them the chance to go out and earn a living and to enjoy

:14:12. > :14:14.the dignity that comes But now some in her party

:14:15. > :14:20.are worried that the low earners will be hit by changes

:14:21. > :14:24.to Universal Credit benefit system originally set up to encourage

:14:25. > :14:27.more people into work. We also need to focus tax credits

:14:28. > :14:30.and Universal Credit Concern centred on the Government's

:14:31. > :14:36.decision in the July 2015 budget to find ?3 billion worth of savings

:14:37. > :14:45.from the Universal Credit bill. Conservative MP Heidi Allen

:14:46. > :14:48.is working on a campaign to get MPs in her party to urge

:14:49. > :14:56.the Prime Minister to think again. I want her to understand for herself

:14:57. > :14:59.what the outcomes might be if we press ahead

:15:00. > :15:01.with the Universal Credit, Do you think Theresa May, right now,

:15:02. > :15:05.understands what you understand To be fair, unless you really

:15:06. > :15:08.get into the detail, and I have through my work

:15:09. > :15:10.on the Work and Pensions Select Committee, I don't

:15:11. > :15:12.think anybody does. Independent economic analysts

:15:13. > :15:18.at the IFS agree with Heidi Alan that cuts to Universal Credit weaken

:15:19. > :15:22.incentives to work. One of the key parts

:15:23. > :15:25.of the Universal Credit system That is how much you can

:15:26. > :15:28.earn before your credit As the Government has

:15:29. > :15:31.sought to save money, both under the Coalition and now

:15:32. > :15:34.they Conservative Government, both under the Coalition and now

:15:35. > :15:36.the Conservative Government, that work allowance has been cut,

:15:37. > :15:38.time and time again. The biggest cuts happened

:15:39. > :15:41.in the summer budget of 2015. That basically reduces the amount

:15:42. > :15:43.of earnings you get to keep It weakens the incentive people have

:15:44. > :15:47.to move into work. What do changes to the Universal

:15:48. > :15:49.Credit system mean? The Resolution Foundation think tank

:15:50. > :15:52.has crunched the numbers. If you compare what would have

:15:53. > :15:56.happened before the July 2015 summer budget to what will happen by 2 20,

:15:57. > :15:59.even if you take into account gains in the National Living Wage

:16:00. > :16:01.and income tax cuts, recipients will be hit

:16:02. > :16:06.by annual deductions. Couples and parents would receive,

:16:07. > :16:10.on average, ?1000 less. A dual-earning couple with two

:16:11. > :16:12.children under four, with one partner working full-time

:16:13. > :16:15.on ?10.50 an hour and the other working part-time on the minimum

:16:16. > :16:18.wage for around 20 hours a week, they would

:16:19. > :16:25.receive ?1800 less. Hit most by the changes

:16:26. > :16:27.would be a single parent with a child under four,

:16:28. > :16:29.working full-time I think, if I'm honest,

:16:30. > :16:43.it is unrealistic, given the economic climate,

:16:44. > :16:46.to expect everything to be reversed. What I would like to see

:16:47. > :16:52.is an increase in the work allowances to those people

:16:53. > :16:55.who will be hardest hit. That is single parents and second

:16:56. > :16:58.earners hoping to return to work, because they are the people we need

:16:59. > :17:00.to absolutely make The Sunday Politics understands that

:17:01. > :17:05.about 15 to 20 Conservative MPs are pushing for changes ahead

:17:06. > :17:08.of the Autumn Statement. A former cabinet minister told us

:17:09. > :17:11.that they believed further impact analysis should be done to find out

:17:12. > :17:14.if any mitigation measures Former Work and Pensions Secretary

:17:15. > :17:20.Iain Duncan Smith, an architect of the system, now says

:17:21. > :17:25.the cuts should be reversed. But his former department has told

:17:26. > :17:30.us that it has no plans to revisit the work allowance changes announced

:17:31. > :17:35.in the budget last year. What I would say to Heidi Allen

:17:36. > :17:38.and IDS, they got it right the first time and they should stick

:17:39. > :17:41.to the vote they cast last year because these reforms actually

:17:42. > :17:43.do make sense. What interests me is the fact

:17:44. > :17:46.we are trying to move people off welfare into work,

:17:47. > :17:48.we are raising the wages people earn by massively increasing

:17:49. > :17:50.the minimum wage and this People are coming off

:17:51. > :17:54.welfare and into work. Campaigners are pushing for savings

:17:55. > :17:57.to come from other areas to relieve The other thing we have to start

:17:58. > :18:03.looking at is the triple Financially it has been a great

:18:04. > :18:07.policy, and it was absolutely right that we lifted pensioners

:18:08. > :18:09.who were significantly behind, for many years, in terms of income

:18:10. > :18:11.levels, but they have I think it is time for us to look

:18:12. > :18:17.at that policy again, because is costing us an awful

:18:18. > :18:19.lot of money. With just over three weeks to wait

:18:20. > :18:22.until the Conservative leadership's new economic plan is unveiled

:18:23. > :18:25.in the Autumn Statement, its top team is under pressure

:18:26. > :18:28.from within its own ranks to use it And I'm joined now by former Work

:18:29. > :18:44.and Pensions Secretary, Welcome back to the programme.

:18:45. > :18:49.Theresa May said she is on the side of the just managing, the working

:18:50. > :18:53.poor. But they are about to be hit from all sides. Their modest living

:18:54. > :18:56.standards are going to be squeezed as inflation overtakes pay rises,

:18:57. > :19:00.they will be further squeezed because top-up benefits in work are

:19:01. > :19:05.frozen. Incentives to work are going to be reduced by the cuts in

:19:06. > :19:10.universal benefits. So much for being on the side of those just

:19:11. > :19:17.managing? Theresa was right to focus on this group. The definition has to

:19:18. > :19:21.be the bottom half, in economic terms, of the social structure. It

:19:22. > :19:24.doesn't look good for them? This is the point I am making, it is an

:19:25. > :19:28.opportunity to put some of this right. One of the reasons I resigned

:19:29. > :19:31.in March is because I felt the direction of travel we had been

:19:32. > :19:35.going in had been to take far too much money out of that group of

:19:36. > :19:38.people when there are other areas which, if you need to make some of

:19:39. > :19:42.those savings, you can. The key bit is that the group needs to be helped

:19:43. > :19:47.through into work and encouraged to stay in work. There was a report

:19:48. > :19:51.done with the IFS, when we were there, at Universal Credit. It said

:19:52. > :19:56.Universal Credit rolled out, as it should have been before the cuts,

:19:57. > :20:00.people would be much more likely to stay in work longer and earn more

:20:01. > :20:04.money. It is a net positive, but that is now called into question.

:20:05. > :20:08.Let's unpick some of the detail but first, do you accept the words of

:20:09. > :20:12.David Willets? It says on the basis of the things I read out to you that

:20:13. > :20:21.the just managing face a significant and painful cut in real terms if we

:20:22. > :20:27.continue on the way we are going. I do, in essence. That is the reason

:20:28. > :20:32.why I resigned. I felt Heidi raised that issue as well, that we got the

:20:33. > :20:36.balance wrong. It is right that pensioners get to a certain point,

:20:37. > :20:41.when they are on a level par, doing the right thing over five years

:20:42. > :20:49.Staying with that process has cost us ?18 billion extra this year, in

:20:50. > :20:55.total. It will go on costing another 5 billion. Then there is the issue

:20:56. > :20:57.of tax allowances. I want to remind you and viewers what David Cameron

:20:58. > :21:04.told the Conservative conference in 2009. If you are a single mother

:21:05. > :21:09.with two children, earning ?150 a week, the withdrawal of your

:21:10. > :21:15.benefits and the additional taxes that you pay me on that for every

:21:16. > :21:23.extra you earn, you keep just 4p. What kind of incentive is that? 30

:21:24. > :21:29.years ago, this party won and election fighting against 98% tax

:21:30. > :21:36.rates for the Rex richest. I want us today to show even more anger about

:21:37. > :21:41.96% tax rates for the very poorest in our country. Real anger, and

:21:42. > :21:48.effective rate of over 90%. Universal Credit reduces that. Some

:21:49. > :21:53.will still face, as they lose benefits and pay tax, a marginal

:21:54. > :21:56.rate of over 75%. That is still too high? Yes, it is the collision

:21:57. > :22:01.between those going into work at the moment they start paying tax. A

:22:02. > :22:07.racial Universal Credit is set at 65%. You can call that the base

:22:08. > :22:12.marginal tax rate. 1.2 million will face 75%? That is the point about

:22:13. > :22:15.why the allowances are so important. The point about the allowances which

:22:16. > :22:19.viewers might not fully understand is that it was set, as part of

:22:20. > :22:23.Universal Credit, to allow you to get certain people, with certain

:22:24. > :22:29.difficulties, as they cross into work, to retain more benefit before

:22:30. > :22:33.it is tapered away as they go up in hours. A lone parent, who might have

:22:34. > :22:37.various issues, you want her to have a bigger incentive than a single

:22:38. > :22:41.person that does not have the same commitments. It is structured so

:22:42. > :22:43.that somebody who has difficulty going to work, they all have

:22:44. > :22:47.slightly different rates. What happened is that last year a

:22:48. > :22:51.decision was taken to reduce tax credits, and, on the back of that,

:22:52. > :22:58.to reduce allowances. I believe given everything that happened now,

:22:59. > :23:00.we need to restore that to the point where it helps those people crossing

:23:01. > :23:03.over. You say a decision was taken, it was a decision by the former

:23:04. > :23:09.Chancellor George Osborne in the summer budget. Other decisions were

:23:10. > :23:12.taken in successive Budgets to raise the Universal Credit budget, which

:23:13. > :23:15.resulted in the disincentive being higher than many people wanted. Do

:23:16. > :23:20.you accept that has been the consequence of his decisions? I was

:23:21. > :23:24.in the Government, we take collective responsibility. I argued

:23:25. > :23:27.this was not the right way to go, but when you are in you have to stay

:23:28. > :23:30.with it if you lose that argument. There was another attempt before the

:23:31. > :23:35.spending review last year to increase the taper, so the marginal

:23:36. > :23:40.rate would have gone up. I managed to stop that. I'm Sibley saying

:23:41. > :23:44.what we made as a decision last year, given the circumstances and

:23:45. > :23:48.given that the net effect of all of that, I think it is time for the

:23:49. > :23:53.Government to ask the question, if we are in this to help that group of

:23:54. > :23:56.people, Universal Credit is singularly the most powerful tool.

:23:57. > :24:02.One of the Argentine aid in the paper published on Thursday, we are

:24:03. > :24:07.set going on doing two more races of the tax threshold, taking more

:24:08. > :24:11.people out of tax. That has a diminishing effect on the bottom

:24:12. > :24:16.section. Only 25p in that tax rate will help any of those. Most of it

:24:17. > :24:21.goes to middle income? You and I will benefit more from that. With

:24:22. > :24:25.Universal Credit, every pound you put into that will go to the bottom

:24:26. > :24:29.five tenths. That is why I designed it like that. He pressed the button

:24:30. > :24:34.and immediately start to changed circumstances. Should the cuts in

:24:35. > :24:36.Universal Credit that Mr Osborne introduced, against your argument,

:24:37. > :24:42.should they be reversed? I believe so. I believe you can do it even if

:24:43. > :24:45.there is concern about spending I don't believe you need to go through

:24:46. > :24:54.with the continuing raise the tax threshold. Cost is dependent on

:24:55. > :24:59.inflation, but give or take. It is in the Tory manifesto? Has more than

:25:00. > :25:02.doubled. What is in the manifesto, and Lasse Prime Minister made this

:25:03. > :25:08.clear in conference, we want to improve the life chances of people.

:25:09. > :25:12.Today's announcement on the Green paper is what I wrote over the last

:25:13. > :25:15.two and a half years. Big changes necessary to how we deal with

:25:16. > :25:20.sickness benefit. That can now be done because of Universal Credit,

:25:21. > :25:24.because people can go back to work and it tapers away their benefits.

:25:25. > :25:27.It is the most powerful tool to sort our people that live in poverty

:25:28. > :25:32.Universal Credit. We need to make sure it lands positively. If Mr

:25:33. > :25:36.Osborne's cuts were reversed, what you and some of your backbench Tory

:25:37. > :25:42.colleagues want to do, how would that improve the incentives of the

:25:43. > :25:46.working poor, as they try to get on in life? They have to pay more tax,

:25:47. > :25:53.they lose some benefits. How would it improve it? Would many still face

:25:54. > :25:57.a 75% rate? The key question is first and foremost, as people move

:25:58. > :26:01.through income to the point where they are getting taxed, that group

:26:02. > :26:04.will be enormously benefited by the re-emergence of these allowances at

:26:05. > :26:10.the right level. That is what the IFS have said, that is what the

:26:11. > :26:14.Resolution Foundation are saying, and the Centre For Social Justice is

:26:15. > :26:17.saying. You have to get that group, because they are most likely to be

:26:18. > :26:22.drifting into poverty and less incomes are right. Would it help

:26:23. > :26:28.those who face a 75% margin? We don't face that. Exactly right.

:26:29. > :26:37.People much poorer than us do. I would love to get the marginal rate

:26:38. > :26:41.down to testify percent, and lower,. -- down to 65%. It is a balance of

:26:42. > :26:46.how you spend the money. I would prefer to do that rather than

:26:47. > :26:52.necessarily go ahead with threshold razors. I think the coronation of

:26:53. > :26:56.the marginal reduction of 65%, getting it down to 60%, plus more

:26:57. > :27:00.allowances, will allow Universal Credit to get to the group that is

:27:01. > :27:04.going to be, and the report written by the IFS and ourselves, it shows

:27:05. > :27:09.it is going to be the most dynamic and direct ability of a Government

:27:10. > :27:15.to be able to influence the way that people improve their incomes in the

:27:16. > :27:21.bottom five deciles. Would you take on extra work if you knew you were

:27:22. > :27:25.going to lose 75% of it? Even 6 %? This has been my argument all along.

:27:26. > :27:30.Universal Credit can help that enormously. One point that goes

:27:31. > :27:34.missing, 70% of the bottom five deciles will be on Universal Credit.

:27:35. > :27:37.Whatever change you make to Universal Credit has a dramatic and

:27:38. > :27:43.immediate effect I am arguing, genuinely, it is time to rethink

:27:44. > :27:46.this. The Prime Minister wants to make this a priority. I am

:27:47. > :27:51.completely with her on this. I think she made a really good start. To

:27:52. > :27:55.deliver this, we need to... You have a lot of work to do to deliver it.

:27:56. > :28:02.Because it is a manifesto commitment, or because they want to

:28:03. > :28:04.do it, stopping increasing the personal allowances are not

:28:05. > :28:07.acceptable, what about bringing to an end, by the end of the

:28:08. > :28:14.parliament, the pension triple lock that pensioners enjoy to improve and

:28:15. > :28:20.put more money to the working poor? What about that? Well, you are

:28:21. > :28:23.absolutely right that there is now the danger, I think, of a mess

:28:24. > :28:28.balance between the generations Quite rightly at the beginning, when

:28:29. > :28:33.we came in, we have a commitment as a Conservative Party in a manifesto

:28:34. > :28:38.to get pensions back onto earnings. It was moved to a triple lock that

:28:39. > :28:42.guaranteed a minimum. What about ending up now? I understand it is a

:28:43. > :28:45.promise through the Parliament, but after 2020? I am in favour of

:28:46. > :28:49.getting it back to innings and allowing it to rise at reasonable

:28:50. > :28:55.levels. Moving from earnings to the triple lock has cost ?18 billion

:28:56. > :28:59.this year. Here was a high, under pressure, as the Government was

:29:00. > :29:03.scratching around to pay more money out of working age areas, when the

:29:04. > :29:06.budget was almost out of control on the pension side. I'm in favour of

:29:07. > :29:11.helping pensioners, but now they are up to a reasonable level, at a

:29:12. > :29:14.steady rate, that can be afforded by Government, which takes the pressure

:29:15. > :29:17.off, working age people have to pay for that. In years to come, time to

:29:18. > :29:31.end the triple lock and use the savings to help these

:29:32. > :29:33.people we have been talking about? As part of a load of packages, yes.

:29:34. > :29:34.It would also help with the intergenerational fairness argument.

:29:35. > :29:37.Thank you for being with us. Now, a prominent London Imam

:29:38. > :29:39.called Shakeel Begg - who is Chief Imam the Lewisham

:29:40. > :29:42.Islamic Centre - is an extremist. That was the verdict of the judge

:29:43. > :29:46.in a libel action that Mr Begg took against the BBC, after we described

:29:47. > :29:49.him as an Islamic extremist Mr Begg had complained about a short

:29:50. > :29:53.segment in an interview in November 2013 with Farooq Murad,

:29:54. > :29:56.the then head of the Muslim Council of Britain, an organisation

:29:57. > :29:58.which claims to represent British In that interview, we described

:29:59. > :30:04.Mr Begg as an extremist speaker who had hailed jihad

:30:05. > :30:06.is the greatest of deeds. From his base of the Lewisham

:30:07. > :30:10.Islamic Centre, Mr Begg has been involved in a number of community

:30:11. > :30:13.organisations, including the Police Independent

:30:14. > :30:16.Advisory Group in Lewisham, Lewisham Council's Advisory Council

:30:17. > :30:21.on Religious Education and as a volunteer chaplain

:30:22. > :30:24.at Lewisham Hospital. But in his judgment,

:30:25. > :30:29.Mr Justice Haddon-Cave called Mr Begg a Jekyll and Hyde character

:30:30. > :30:32.- a trusted figure in his local community, but when talking

:30:33. > :30:36.to predominantly Muslim audiences he shed the cloak of respectability

:30:37. > :30:41.and revealed the horns of extremism. The judge cited one speech made

:30:42. > :30:44.by Mr Begg at a rally outside Belmarsh Prisonm-

:30:45. > :30:46.the high security prison that houses terrorists -

:30:47. > :30:50.as particularly sinister. The judge said the imam

:30:51. > :30:52.was expressing admiration and praise Following Friday's judgment,

:30:53. > :30:58.the hospital trust have told us that Mr Begg's status as a voluntary

:30:59. > :31:02.chaplain has been terminated. We have been told by

:31:03. > :31:06.Lewisham Council he is no longer on their Religious

:31:07. > :31:08.Education Committee. The Metropolitan Police

:31:09. > :31:10.have confirmed that Mr Begg remains a member

:31:11. > :31:15.of their Independent Advisory Group in Lewisham, as well as

:31:16. > :31:27.the borough's faith group. I am joined by Haras Rafiq, chief

:31:28. > :31:34.executive of the Quilliam Foundation. Welcome to the

:31:35. > :31:38.programme. I have here in my hand a statement from the trustees of the

:31:39. > :31:43.Lewisham Islamic Centre. They reject the judge's ruling as fanciful and

:31:44. > :31:47.say they are unequivocal and unwavering in their support of

:31:48. > :31:53.Shakeel Begg as their head imam What do you make of that? To be

:31:54. > :31:58.honest, it doesn't surprise me. At the end of the day he is only the

:31:59. > :32:02.imam of that mosque because he belongs to the same theological

:32:03. > :32:05.fundamentalist views that the mosque would portray. If they were to say

:32:06. > :32:11.he was an extremist, they would be saying in fact that they have

:32:12. > :32:14.allowed extremist preaching and extremist theology within their

:32:15. > :32:23.walls. I think this is a very important decision and a very

:32:24. > :32:26.important judgment by the judge First of all, these people like to

:32:27. > :32:31.operate in a linear, under a veneer of respectability. When that veneer

:32:32. > :32:35.is taken away, there are a number of things that can happen. First of

:32:36. > :32:42.all, the BBC did very well to stand by their guns and say, we're not

:32:43. > :32:46.going to be intimidated by somebody who is threatening to taking -- to

:32:47. > :32:51.take us to court for potential libel. Many other media companies

:32:52. > :32:56.have done that in the past and people have capitulated. Also, this

:32:57. > :33:01.has exposed him. Legally now, here's some deal can be classified as an

:33:02. > :33:05.extremist preacher, somebody who promotes religious violence. I think

:33:06. > :33:09.the mosque really needs to take a step back and say, how we part of

:33:10. > :33:13.the problem that we are facing within society? Or are we going to

:33:14. > :33:21.be part of the solution? It really concerns me. The High Court judge

:33:22. > :33:27.says that Mr Begg's speeches were consistent with an extremist

:33:28. > :33:37.Salafist is the most worldview. What is Salafist is and how widespread is

:33:38. > :33:43.it in UK mosques? -- mosque. It comes from the Middle East. It is

:33:44. > :33:50.from Saudi Arabia. The enemy for them was the old colonial Ottoman

:33:51. > :33:55.Empire. There is the quiet Salafist to get some with their lives, lives

:33:56. > :33:59.outside society. There is a revolutionary who tries to convert

:34:00. > :34:05.other people to their worldview And then there is the Salafist jihad

:34:06. > :34:09.ease. People like Islamic State etc. We have seen of increased in recent

:34:10. > :34:14.decades because of money that has, growing from the Middle East. When

:34:15. > :34:18.that is mixed with a political ideology, it becomes potent. Do we

:34:19. > :34:24.have a political -- particular problem in Britain with this in our

:34:25. > :34:28.mosques? Absolutely. Without the theology that says hate the other,

:34:29. > :34:32.hate other Muslims, that excommunicate other people, that

:34:33. > :34:36.says it is OK to fight and is good to fight when you have got an enemy,

:34:37. > :34:41.we wouldn't really have a jihadi problem. Really that is something we

:34:42. > :34:47.have to tackle. The number of mosques and institutions supporting

:34:48. > :34:52.Salafist and Islam is has been on the increase. Do we have a problem

:34:53. > :34:56.with what the judge called Jekyll and Hyde characters who hide their

:34:57. > :35:03.extremism except when they are speaking to specific groups?

:35:04. > :35:08.Absolutely. One of the things we have focused on in the past, a

:35:09. > :35:12.number of hate preachers now in prison, people like Anjem Choudary,

:35:13. > :35:16.and everybody focused on them. But there is a range of people operating

:35:17. > :35:20.under that level. People who will show one face to the community

:35:21. > :35:25.because they actually need that for a respectability. They need that for

:35:26. > :35:28.a legitimacy. They need that to operate. When they are behind closed

:35:29. > :35:32.doors and talking to their constitution, that is when you will

:35:33. > :35:38.see the real face of what these people believe. It is an increasing

:35:39. > :35:45.phenomenon. We are seeing it more. And we're going to carry on seeing

:35:46. > :35:50.it. Not just has the Lewisham mosque stuck by him, but given the clarity

:35:51. > :35:53.of the judge's ruling, are you surprised that the Metropolitan

:35:54. > :35:57.police would wish to continue with Mr Begg as an adviser? I'm

:35:58. > :36:01.absolutely shocked that that decision. What Uzzy going to do

:36:02. > :36:06.Advise them on how to deal with extremist preachers and promote

:36:07. > :36:10.religiously motivated violence? I don't know what he's going to advise

:36:11. > :36:15.them on. Because we now have a judge that has ruled against him and

:36:16. > :36:19.actually classified him as an extremist and somebody who promotes

:36:20. > :36:23.religious violence, we actually have a possibility for the CPS to

:36:24. > :36:27.actually prosecute him. There is a law that has been in place since

:36:28. > :36:32.2005 called religiously motivated violence. If he has been classified

:36:33. > :36:37.as somebody who promotes this, there is a potential for the CPS to

:36:38. > :36:39.prosecute. I want to called into question other organisations,

:36:40. > :36:46.interfaith organisations, other Muslims groups, who say they want to

:36:47. > :36:50.fight extremism, I call on them to say, this guy is an extremist

:36:51. > :36:59.preacher, we should cut our ties from him. This was a very high risk

:37:00. > :37:06.strategy by the BBC. The exposure could have been over ?1.5 million of

:37:07. > :37:10.licence payers money. Will this make it more difficult for Jekyll and

:37:11. > :37:15.Hyde characters to behave as Mr Begg has behaved? Absolutely. It will do.

:37:16. > :37:22.One of the things they will now have to make sure is that they are a lot

:37:23. > :37:26.more careful. Careful with what they say to their own constituency. It

:37:27. > :37:32.won't solve the theological problem. But it will actually stop other

:37:33. > :37:35.people from operating in this manner and allow other media organisations

:37:36. > :37:37.to have the confidence to expose them when they do. Haras Rafiq,

:37:38. > :37:40.thank you for joining us. It's just gone 11.35,

:37:41. > :37:42.you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers

:37:43. > :37:44.in Scotland, who leave us now Coming up here in 20 minutes,

:37:45. > :37:48.the Week Ahead. First though, the Sunday

:37:49. > :37:59.Politics where you are. Coming up later, a decision finally

:38:00. > :38:05.taken, now just a question of building the thing -

:38:06. > :38:08.with all the political, legal and planning

:38:09. > :38:11.problems that lie ahead. Joining me today, David Lammy,

:38:12. > :38:14.Labour MP for Todman, who is a Remainer and is pro that

:38:15. > :38:17.third runway, a decision Theresa Villiers, Conservative MP

:38:18. > :38:24.for Chipping Barnet is also here, a leading Brexiteer

:38:25. > :38:26.and opponent of a third runway. Let's start with the review

:38:27. > :38:30.of London's preparedness to deal with terrorism,

:38:31. > :38:33.which was published this week. It had more than 120

:38:34. > :38:35.recommendations in it. Broadly speaking, it finds

:38:36. > :38:37.the capital pretty well placed. Yes, I think Lord Harris

:38:38. > :38:45.was positive about London's ability But I think he also had some

:38:46. > :38:49.helpful suggestions. This is the sort of area

:38:50. > :38:52.where there is always more Some of the suggestions,

:38:53. > :38:57.I think, I don't think But, overall, I think this

:38:58. > :39:00.is a helpful contribution. Like the one he thinks we should be

:39:01. > :39:03.spending more time and attention looking at, merging the city

:39:04. > :39:05.force with the Met? You don't think we should be

:39:06. > :39:08.going along with that? I think those kind of structural

:39:09. > :39:10.reorganisations, in relation, for example, to the British

:39:11. > :39:12.Transport Police in the city, I think they would probably be

:39:13. > :39:15.a bit of a distraction. I don't think that should be

:39:16. > :39:17.the priority when it comes I think what is also useful

:39:18. > :39:22.from this report is that it is a reminder that these attacks

:39:23. > :39:27.are such a significant threat to London and could

:39:28. > :39:29.happen at any time. The Tories in the London Assembly,

:39:30. > :39:32.it is somewhat suggesting, their reaction this week,

:39:33. > :39:34.that it was a bit bland, Presumably, you can argue that

:39:35. > :39:38.number of recommendations I think it's surprising,

:39:39. > :39:45.for example, that Sadiq Khan or the Mayor of London is not

:39:46. > :39:48.going to Cobra meetings. The meetings of that gathering

:39:49. > :39:54.of security experts and politicians that always happens,

:39:55. > :39:56.we should make clear, the Cabinet committee,

:39:57. > :39:58.at a time of crisis? Let's remember, just last week,

:39:59. > :40:01.someone was arrested on the Jubilee Line

:40:02. > :40:05.with what apparently looked like a bomb.

:40:06. > :40:07.This is serious. The police have thwarted

:40:08. > :40:14.50 attacks since 2005. Actually, I think Lord Harris has

:40:15. > :40:18.done a really comprehensive job Things like alerts across London,

:40:19. > :40:21.on our mobile phones, so we can all be in touch,

:40:22. > :40:24.we can all stay connected. Actually, that ought

:40:25. > :40:26.to be happening routinely. And finding that the 600 extra armed

:40:27. > :40:29.officers that the capital is already getting, the Home Office

:40:30. > :40:34.and the Government had authorised It might send the wrong impression,

:40:35. > :40:41.psychosocial impression, he described it as,

:40:42. > :40:43.to the people that we are too I think a balance needs to be struck

:40:44. > :40:50.dependent on what's going on. Clearly, global affairs

:40:51. > :40:53.and international policy can sometimes drive the urgency,

:40:54. > :41:01.if you like, of our response. So, I would want to keep

:41:02. > :41:04.that as a question mark. Would you like to see

:41:05. > :41:06.more armed officers? Are people telling you they want

:41:07. > :41:10.more armed reassurance? I think there is already a lot

:41:11. > :41:13.of work being done on that. I know that the Met takes

:41:14. > :41:15.this very seriously, I think the report is quite

:41:16. > :41:20.interesting, on that. So, I don't think huge numbers

:41:21. > :41:29.of extra armed police is necessarily I think what is crucial

:41:30. > :41:33.is that we complete the Investigatory Powers Bill

:41:34. > :41:37.in the Houses of Commons and Parliament, because

:41:38. > :41:40.without those powers, our intelligence services

:41:41. > :41:43.are going to find themselves progressively less and less able

:41:44. > :41:46.to detect these plots before Worth a programme in itself,

:41:47. > :41:51.but we must move on. So, the Government finally took

:41:52. > :41:53.the plunge and gave its backing But there's quite a journey ahead,

:41:54. > :41:57.full of challenges - At last the Government's green light

:41:58. > :42:09.for a third runway at Heathrow. We believe a third runway

:42:10. > :42:13.for Heathrow is the best option for our future, it's the best

:42:14. > :42:16.for the whole country to create better connectivity

:42:17. > :42:18.for the different regions of the United Kingdom and to provide

:42:19. > :42:23.the best trade links to the world. So, London's airport capacity

:42:24. > :42:27.is set to be increased. And there's reason

:42:28. > :42:32.believe it might not. Residents near Heathrow have

:42:33. > :42:43.concerns about noise And political

:42:44. > :42:47.opposition is mounting. Are you still going to oppose

:42:48. > :42:50.Heathrow, Boris? One of the most high-profile

:42:51. > :42:53.Conservative backbenchers, Zac Goldsmith, has resigned to fight

:42:54. > :42:56.a by-election as an independent This project is almost certainly not

:42:57. > :43:03.going to be delivered. I believe this will be a millstone

:43:04. > :43:06.around this government's neck for many, many years to come -

:43:07. > :43:09.a constant source of delay, a constant source of

:43:10. > :43:12.anger and betrayal. But even though the Tories won't be

:43:13. > :43:16.standing a candidate against him, observers say there is a very strong

:43:17. > :43:19.chance the Lib Dems might The Prime Minister is expected

:43:20. > :43:28.to have enough votes in parliament for a third runway by almost two

:43:29. > :43:31.thirds, according to a ComRes poll. The question might not be settled

:43:32. > :43:36.in Parliament at all. At least five local councils,

:43:37. > :43:38.including Theresa May's own in Windsor and Maidenhead,

:43:39. > :43:40.will be fighting the They may even be getting some help

:43:41. > :43:44.from the Mayor of London. I think this is the wrong decision

:43:45. > :43:48.for London and the whole of Britain. I think the Government is riding

:43:49. > :43:53.roughshod over Londoners' views It's worth speaking to local

:43:54. > :43:55.councils now and exploring helping Heathrow may have got the green

:43:56. > :44:01.light from the Government, but following a potential judicial

:44:02. > :44:04.review into the environmental impact on locals, it might be looking

:44:05. > :44:11.at a red light from the courts. How much time should Sadiq Khan be

:44:12. > :44:16.spending continuing to oppose this? Sadiq has got to take his view

:44:17. > :44:22.on behalf of London and he is clear You pointed that out in the mayoral

:44:23. > :44:31.campaign, didn't you? During the mayoral campaign,

:44:32. > :44:33.I wanted to be Mayor. I was very keen to point out that

:44:34. > :44:36.Sadiq had flip-flopped on it. But it does feel that he

:44:37. > :44:39.is absolutely clear it He must also, I think,

:44:40. > :44:51.agree that we've got to move on There are real issues

:44:52. > :44:56.about a lack of capacity. In a post-Brexit environment

:44:57. > :44:58.particularly, where London could lose out, we have got

:44:59. > :45:02.to increase their capacity and therefore the Government,

:45:03. > :45:06.having settled on Heathrow, what I'm hoping now is that we can

:45:07. > :45:10.actually move forward and not just get stuck on the same old record,

:45:11. > :45:13.a record that has been turning now Theresa, when it is so

:45:14. > :45:19.controversial, when they have waited so long, we had Davies and then

:45:20. > :45:22.we have a big delay after Davies, as you pointed out before

:45:23. > :45:24.we started recording, you've talked about it in the studio

:45:25. > :45:27.so many times, going They wouldn't make this decision

:45:28. > :45:30.if it wasn't doable, it couldn't happen eventually,

:45:31. > :45:34.would you not say? Well, I think there is a reason why

:45:35. > :45:36.people have been talking about a third runway at Heathrow

:45:37. > :45:39.for 40 years and is not built it, about a third runway at Heathrow

:45:40. > :45:42.for 40 years and not built it, We have heard about

:45:43. > :45:47.huge legal problems. Remember, this construction project

:45:48. > :45:50.involves either tunnelling the M25 or somehow building a runway

:45:51. > :45:53.on a bridge over the M25. And that's before you get

:45:54. > :45:55.into the fact that Heathrow is already the biggest noise

:45:56. > :45:59.polluter in Europe. There are so many reasons why this

:46:00. > :46:02.is a bad idea and, yet, Gatwick we could deliver in half the time,

:46:03. > :46:05.half the cost. That simple point, if the logic

:46:06. > :46:07.is so obvious, how... Why have they made

:46:08. > :46:09.this decision, then? It's very frustrating,

:46:10. > :46:16.the fixation of the establishment of Heathrow is getting in the way

:46:17. > :46:19.of delivering a new runway. I agree we need airport capacity,

:46:20. > :46:22.but the only way to deliver it in the south-east is via Gatwick,

:46:23. > :46:24.because the problems Look, there have always been

:46:25. > :46:31.West London MPs or MPs in the flight Huge amounts of jobs

:46:32. > :46:49.will come as a consequence. Might I just say, London's young

:46:50. > :46:51.people, 10,000 plus apprentices Most importantly, the economy

:46:52. > :46:53.of West London, where the airport is situated, is the most important

:46:54. > :46:57.economy currently in Europe. Let us grow it so that

:46:58. > :47:00.all of the country can benefit. It looks like the SNP

:47:01. > :47:02.are going to support this proposal. Let's get on with it and not

:47:03. > :47:07.let the nimbys stop it. If that is going to be a crucial

:47:08. > :47:10.decision and the votes are in favour of it,

:47:11. > :47:13.what do you think it is that will stop it, that will make it

:47:14. > :47:16.undeliverable, if it goes and gets that political cross

:47:17. > :47:18.party endorsement? Well, I and others,

:47:19. > :47:20.and I would point out I'm not a West London MP,

:47:21. > :47:22.my constituency, thankfully, is not under the flight path,

:47:23. > :47:28.so it is not just people people who are concerned

:47:29. > :47:30.about their backyards that I think I will continue to make

:47:31. > :47:36.the case as part of this long process which the Government has

:47:37. > :47:38.undertaken for the better You know, Gatwick has been

:47:39. > :47:42.transformed as an airport since BAA, as it then was,

:47:43. > :47:46.was forced to sell it. The competition between our airports

:47:47. > :47:48.has dramatically improved Can I just ask from you,

:47:49. > :47:56.you feel very strongly about it why would you have never considered,

:47:57. > :47:59.why don't you make it a resigning issue and follow

:48:00. > :48:04.what Zac Goldsmith does? Well, people in politics care

:48:05. > :48:06.passionately about all sorts of issues, but it's very rare

:48:07. > :48:08.to trigger a by-election I respect the decision he has made,

:48:09. > :48:16.that was part of the platform on which he stood in

:48:17. > :48:18.the general election. Would you go and campaign for him

:48:19. > :48:22.during this by-election? Certainly I would support

:48:23. > :48:24.his campaign, yes. Do you expect frontbenchers,

:48:25. > :48:28.key figures in the party, I don't know what their

:48:29. > :48:32.intentions would be. Certainly, I would be very happy

:48:33. > :48:38.to help Zac. You have to agree, don't you,

:48:39. > :48:41.David Lammy, it is going to be a rugged, tough process,

:48:42. > :48:43.with four local authorities, Conservative local authorities,

:48:44. > :48:45.in the wings, ClientEarth, There are issues I think, still

:48:46. > :48:55.in relation to pollution, genuinely. And noise, specifically

:48:56. > :48:58.for those in the area. It is very likely we won't get

:48:59. > :49:01.there until actually That's more reason to have settled

:49:02. > :49:08.on a position and work Ready to go off and fly off

:49:09. > :49:14.somewhere, to enjoy your retirement. Going back, eight years

:49:15. > :49:17.ago with Geoff Hoon, he predicted technology would fix

:49:18. > :49:20.these pollution problems. He was wrong then, and I'm afraid

:49:21. > :49:22.the Government is Don't forget, the Davies Commission

:49:23. > :49:29.said they were satisfied that the carbon emissions,

:49:30. > :49:32.the standard was met. With, I think we will all agree

:49:33. > :49:38.a lot of work to be done We've touched on Brexit

:49:39. > :49:43.a little bit already, but it's 30 years since the big

:49:44. > :49:46.bang, the process of deregulation which enabled the City

:49:47. > :49:48.to become a world leader This week, the Mayor,

:49:49. > :49:53.Sadiq Khan, and senior figures from the City Corporation

:49:54. > :49:55.issued fresh warnings about the risks to that status

:49:56. > :49:58.from the so-called hard Brexit, Despite being a financial powerhouse

:49:59. > :50:05.and home to hundreds of banks in the early 1980s, London

:50:06. > :50:08.was thought to be in danger of falling behind rivals

:50:09. > :50:12.in New York. The Thatcher government

:50:13. > :50:14.believed reform was needed, and rather than introduce it

:50:15. > :50:17.gradually, they decided it should all come into force overnight

:50:18. > :50:19.in what became known On Monday, October 27th,

:50:20. > :50:30.1986, the London stock Gone were the crowded

:50:31. > :50:35.and chaotic trading floors that bred inefficency,

:50:36. > :50:37.replaced by electronic For the first time, foreign firms

:50:38. > :50:44.could buy up and own some That was the trigger of the gun

:50:45. > :50:50.being pulled saying, "Ladies and gentlemen worldwide

:50:51. > :50:52.London is open for international business

:50:53. > :50:56.and we are here." And of course, within five

:50:57. > :51:06.years they hit the skies. Over the next 30 years London became

:51:07. > :51:09.arguably the world's for most important financial centre,

:51:10. > :51:11.employing three quarters Our time zone, proximity and access

:51:12. > :51:23.to the European single market make London an attractive

:51:24. > :51:24.base for American Under EU passport rules,

:51:25. > :51:27.their location here enables them to sell their service

:51:28. > :51:31.across the Union. Meanwhile, free movement of people

:51:32. > :51:34.means Europe's best talent have But now, depending on the deal

:51:35. > :51:40.we get with Europe, Brexit could mean the loss of passporting

:51:41. > :51:43.and free movement. So some firms in London

:51:44. > :51:45.are exploring their options The big bang helped London

:51:46. > :51:52.secure its position as the market But now, 30 years on, after Brexit,

:51:53. > :52:01.could this be the turning point If we get a Brexit that largely

:52:02. > :52:07.maintains the ability national institutions based in Britain

:52:08. > :52:09.to operate in the European Union, and those in the European Union

:52:10. > :52:12.to operate in Britain, then the effect on jobs in London,

:52:13. > :52:14.jobs in the country, If we don't get that,

:52:15. > :52:19.there will be a loss of some functions over time and therefore

:52:20. > :52:21.the loss of jobs and The scenario is from a couple

:52:22. > :52:26.of thousand, if there is a Brexit that leaves us roughly where we are,

:52:27. > :52:29.to perhaps as many as 75,000 if we have no access

:52:30. > :52:31.to the single market But David Buick believes our closest

:52:32. > :52:38.European rivals are anything but. Frankfurt, I don't want to be

:52:39. > :52:42.disrespectful but I am going to be. It would take them ten years

:52:43. > :52:51.to build the infrastructure. Regardless of the economic arguments

:52:52. > :52:57.for London retaining its status as a financial centre of Europe

:52:58. > :52:59.Brexit negotiations mean there are serious political

:53:00. > :53:06.considerations, too. European politicians do economically

:53:07. > :53:09.self-defeating things all the time. You shouldn't be surprised if Paris

:53:10. > :53:12.and Berlin are now going to try to capitalise

:53:13. > :53:17.on Britain leaving the EU, in a potentially futile effort

:53:18. > :53:19.to turn their own cities I mean, you eventually run

:53:20. > :53:26.into economic reality in some form, but the politicians can keep

:53:27. > :53:29.going for an awfully long time This week, another big British

:53:30. > :53:35.economic project did finally But Heathrow watchers who have seen

:53:36. > :53:40.politics trump economics on that issue for decades,

:53:41. > :53:43.will be wary of European leaders who have to balance their own

:53:44. > :53:45.political realities And David, big car firms saying

:53:46. > :53:57.they are going to start investing The City showing

:53:58. > :54:02.that it's resilient. It has always come up new solutions

:54:03. > :54:06.and kept its pre-eminent position. There is a lot of exaggerated

:54:07. > :54:08.fear here, isn't there? We're living in very,

:54:09. > :54:15.very serious times, in which the pound has fallen,

:54:16. > :54:18.in which we are hearing very consistently from our major banks

:54:19. > :54:21.and from the City that if we don't get those passporting rules,

:54:22. > :54:25.they are off. And frankly, with an economy

:54:26. > :54:27.in Britain, and this is the fundamental point,

:54:28. > :54:29.where 80% of our economy is based on services,

:54:30. > :54:32.we are not manufacturing in the way If we lose this, then those

:54:33. > :54:38.services could go. They could go elsewhere,

:54:39. > :54:40.and they will go elsewhere. Why would these City figures bother

:54:41. > :54:47.to warn if there was not Well, it's very important that

:54:48. > :54:53.during the Brexit negotiations the UK looks to see,

:54:54. > :54:55.to do everything we can As you say, London has

:54:56. > :55:02.always been resilient. It is the most successful financial

:55:03. > :55:06.centre on earth. It is in the interest

:55:07. > :55:11.of the United Kingdom and the EU, that London continues to be

:55:12. > :55:13.successful, because it serves Do you expect there to be no loss

:55:14. > :55:21.of any kind of strength opposition? That current arrangements will be

:55:22. > :55:23.transferred across in I think we can deliver

:55:24. > :55:28.passporting-type arrangements. But I also think it's crucial

:55:29. > :55:31.to recognise that actually London does all sorts of business

:55:32. > :55:33.across Europe which doesn't involve the passport anyway

:55:34. > :55:35.because of the focus It is possible to deliver

:55:36. > :55:43.a successful outcome through these negotiations for the city,

:55:44. > :55:45.because it is in the interest It's the consultants,

:55:46. > :55:55.it's the lawyers. All of that comes off

:55:56. > :55:57.the back of that trading. That's why passporting

:55:58. > :56:01.is so important. Why would the European Union give us

:56:02. > :56:04.those rights when we have They'll want it for

:56:05. > :56:06.the European Union. It's all well and good to say,

:56:07. > :56:09."I think we will get it." That, I think, particularly

:56:10. > :56:24.if we actually move forward with Article 50, is going

:56:25. > :56:27.to lead to an enormous So far you have been proved wrong

:56:28. > :56:32.in terms of the economic shock that you and other Remainers

:56:33. > :56:34.were predicting. How do we account for

:56:35. > :56:36.third-quarter figures? The economic shock happens

:56:37. > :56:39.the moment we press Most economists are predicting,

:56:40. > :56:45.it's the first quarter of next year I believe that we will get a good

:56:46. > :56:54.trading deal from the European Union because it is manifestly

:56:55. > :56:56.in their interest that we do so Most member states have

:56:57. > :56:58.nothing resembling their They will continue

:56:59. > :57:05.to depend on London. They won't take kindly

:57:06. > :57:09.to their businesses being told that they don't have access to those

:57:10. > :57:11.liquid capital markets, which frankly no other financial

:57:12. > :57:13.centre in Europe can The reality is, if there

:57:14. > :57:19.is a politically driven attempt to try to undermine London's place

:57:20. > :57:22.as Europe's financial centre, the only other place they're

:57:23. > :57:26.going to go is New York. This is in our interest,

:57:27. > :57:28.it is in the EU's interest, to make sure we have an orderly

:57:29. > :57:31.transition to a new arrangement Of course it's in the EU's interests

:57:32. > :57:35.to have a trading relationship. But it is also in their interests

:57:36. > :57:38.to preserve the EU. And in many countries in the EU

:57:39. > :57:41.there are movements And for those reasons,

:57:42. > :57:46.when we get to the negotiation, as has been said by European

:57:47. > :57:51.leaders, it will be hardball. There is much we have

:57:52. > :57:54.now that we will no longer have Ten seconds to reassure,

:57:55. > :57:57.to come back? London is going to continue to be

:57:58. > :58:00.the biggest and best financial And it is in the interest of the UK

:58:01. > :58:06.and EU that that continues. The EU has already got enough

:58:07. > :58:08.problems with financial markets Now, for the rest of the political

:58:09. > :58:24.news in 60 seconds. Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson has

:58:25. > :58:27.been urged to do more for Anglo Iranian aid worker

:58:28. > :58:31.Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, detained in Iran

:58:32. > :58:34.accused of espionage. The 37-year-old charity worker

:58:35. > :58:36.from Hampstead was originally arrested at Tehran airport

:58:37. > :58:39.on April three along Sadiq Khan has met with

:58:40. > :58:46.a cross-party group of London MPs to support a push for a devolution

:58:47. > :58:49.deal in the Autumn Statement. The Mayor argued that giving

:58:50. > :58:52.City Hall and London's boroughs more control would allow the city

:58:53. > :58:55.to better manage the potential Wimbledon MP Stephen Hammond raised

:58:56. > :59:01.the issue of Crossrail 2 Could my right honourable friend

:59:02. > :59:10.assure me that the Government still supports Crossrail 2,

:59:11. > :59:13.and would she ask the Secretary of State to set the timetable

:59:14. > :59:17.for the delayed consultation? We are waiting to see a robust

:59:18. > :59:20.business case and a proper funding Very quickly, at the end of the week

:59:21. > :59:37.a private members' bill on homelessness got through,

:59:38. > :59:38.got government support. It will allow local authorities

:59:39. > :59:41.or give them the obligation to do much more for people who are thrown

:59:42. > :59:44.out of their private rented homes. I felt it was a good

:59:45. > :59:48.day for Parliament. I have huge respect for my

:59:49. > :59:50.colleague, Bob Blackman, who is taking this bill forward

:59:51. > :59:53.because it will help some of the most vulnerable people

:59:54. > :59:57.in our community avoid homelessness. It is the biggest upgrade

:59:58. > :59:59.and modernisation of our laws on homelessness that we've

:00:00. > :00:02.seen in this country. And a lot of collaboration,

:00:03. > :00:04.cross-party? Of course it was cross-party

:00:05. > :00:06.because right across London we can see the chronic homelessness

:00:07. > :00:08.on our streets. There are kids without

:00:09. > :00:11.homes in London. But the question will be,

:00:12. > :00:13.can we give local government in London the resources to meet

:00:14. > :00:15.these statutory obligations The other question everybody

:00:16. > :00:22.was raising, we wouldn't be in this position if you guys were just

:00:23. > :00:25.building more houses? Well, all parties accept the need

:00:26. > :00:27.to build more houses For example, the borough I live in,

:00:28. > :00:32.Barnet, is delivering more houses Labour failed to deliver

:00:33. > :00:39.us the homes we need. Theresa Villiers, David Lammy,

:00:40. > :00:46.thank you very much for coming in. And Andrew, with that,

:00:47. > :00:58.it is back to you. Barely more than a week

:00:59. > :01:02.now until polling day, and a new revelation rocks the US

:01:03. > :01:12.Presidential election campaign. If it wasn't bizarre enough, it just

:01:13. > :01:15.got more bizarre. The FBI have reopened their

:01:16. > :01:18.investigation into Hillary Clinton's use of private email servers

:01:19. > :01:20.whilst she was Secretary of State, after the discovery

:01:21. > :01:28.of further emails. Though not on her laptop or even the

:01:29. > :01:33.State Department. Donald Trump is saying that it's

:01:34. > :01:35.bigger than Watergate - so could it swing the election

:01:36. > :01:37.in his favour? We spoke to top US

:01:38. > :01:39.pollster, Frank Luntz. The FBI investigation is happening

:01:40. > :01:43.so late in the election process that it would be very difficult

:01:44. > :01:47.to derail a Clinton victory. That said, if there is one thing

:01:48. > :01:50.that could keep Hillary Clinton from the presidency,

:01:51. > :01:56.it's an FBI investigation. But there's still only four states

:01:57. > :01:58.that really matter, Florida, Ohio, Right now, Clinton has

:01:59. > :02:03.beyond the margin of error leads This would have to have a truly

:02:04. > :02:10.significant impact for the election There is a point about a week ago

:02:11. > :02:18.when I was prepared to say that Clinton had a 95% chance

:02:19. > :02:23.of winning this election. Based on what has happened

:02:24. > :02:29.in the last 48 hours, It is still very likely,

:02:30. > :02:34.but I wouldn't bet on it. I thought the 2000 election would be

:02:35. > :02:37.the best election of my lifetime, And then I thought 2008 would be

:02:38. > :02:42.amazing, because we had two challenger candidates and the first

:02:43. > :02:45.African-American President. It is ugly, it's painful,

:02:46. > :02:54.it is as negative as anything The public is angry,

:02:55. > :03:00.the country, overall, is frustrated. But for entertainment value,

:03:01. > :03:07.these candidates probably should have charged us money,

:03:08. > :03:11.because it's better than any movie at ever seen, it's

:03:12. > :03:24.better than any TV show. That was Frank Luntz. He may be

:03:25. > :03:31.right or wrong about Mrs Clinton still having an 80% chance of

:03:32. > :03:35.winning. I would bet on an 80% chance? Yes, absolutely. I spoke to

:03:36. > :03:38.a high-profile American pollster and strategist last night and he took a

:03:39. > :03:45.rather different view to Frank Luntz. He thought, and I think some

:03:46. > :03:47.other high-profile commentators agree, that this is actually much

:03:48. > :03:53.more serious than some people realise. There are an awful lot of

:03:54. > :03:57.undecided voters out there looking for an excuse to vote Trump. They do

:03:58. > :04:01.not like what they see in either candidate. But because this FBI

:04:02. > :04:07.probe is not going to conclude before the election, the question,

:04:08. > :04:11.the doubt over Hillary Clinton, gives them an excuse to back Trump.

:04:12. > :04:16.The thing that will play on the minds of the voters is, could the

:04:17. > :04:21.100 day honeymoon turning to the 100 day divorce? Which even be

:04:22. > :04:27.impeached? It may give some people an excuse not to vote for Mrs

:04:28. > :04:31.Clinton. It could provide a problem in terms of energising her base The

:04:32. > :04:38.battle ground almost matters more than the polls. Florida and

:04:39. > :04:44.Pennsylvania have been trending to Mrs Clinton. Mr Trump needs to win

:04:45. > :04:53.both. He does not get in without both. He needs both. Just coming up

:04:54. > :04:56.in the latest BBC News, the Washington Post tracking poll, Mrs

:04:57. > :05:03.Clinton is now only one point ahead in the national poll. One point

:05:04. > :05:10.Even given my caveat that the state battles are most important. That is

:05:11. > :05:17.incredibly close? It is. Polls yesterday showed Trump nationally

:05:18. > :05:19.closing of. -- up. There is a clear trend and movement. This has

:05:20. > :05:25.reinforced everything that people who have a problem with Hillary

:05:26. > :05:29.Clinton know about Hillary Clinton. Trump is running this insurgent

:05:30. > :05:34.campaign. We have seen at here with Brexit. If you are running an

:05:35. > :05:36.insurgent campaign, you want to be against the ultimate establishment

:05:37. > :05:42.insider and that is what Hillary Clinton is. I suggested it was

:05:43. > :05:47.bizarre. Fathoming the behaviour of the FBI is interesting as well. This

:05:48. > :05:51.is a separate investigation into a former congressman, Anthony Wiener,

:05:52. > :05:59.who had done all sorts of things. He seemed to be sex text thing a minor.

:06:00. > :06:04.A 15-year-old girl. The FBI investigate. They get his laptop to

:06:05. > :06:10.see what else he has been too. In the course of that, his wife, now

:06:11. > :06:16.separated, the closest adviser to Hillary Clinton, they find on the

:06:17. > :06:27.laptop e-mails involving the Clinton server to her. And yet the FBI

:06:28. > :06:31.cannot, it needs now a separate warrant to access these e-mails It

:06:32. > :06:35.hasn't got that yet. It has got a warrant to do the congressman

:06:36. > :06:42.e-mails. On the basis of not knowing the content, this has happened.

:06:43. > :06:47.Yeah. Who knows? He is a Republican, this guy. Earlier this year he was

:06:48. > :06:53.being praised to the hilt by Democrats. Absolutely. The timing is

:06:54. > :06:59.a nightmare for her. You described the whole sequence. There is nothing

:07:00. > :07:07.definitive to doubt in this sequence. All he is saying is he has

:07:08. > :07:14.discovered more e-mails in effect. They are from the congressman's

:07:15. > :07:19.former wife. On Anthony Wiener's laptop, which apparently she used

:07:20. > :07:23.sometimes. But what that shows is that for all the scrutiny of modern

:07:24. > :07:28.politicians, they cannot escape caricature. And as Tim was just

:07:29. > :07:34.saying, her weakness is perceived to be secretive, elitism and

:07:35. > :07:38.complacency about that elitism. And so just the announcement of a

:07:39. > :07:43.reopening of the investigation so fuels that caricature, you have just

:07:44. > :07:50.revealed a poll giving her a 1% lead. That must be related to what

:07:51. > :07:55.has happened. It is without a shred of evidence that she has done

:07:56. > :07:58.anything wrong. You can see how because people only see things

:07:59. > :08:05.encourage kids, that is deadly serious. -- in caricature. An

:08:06. > :08:10.American friend of mine said we have got our October surprise but we

:08:11. > :08:15.don't know what it is. The FBI must surely come under massive pressure.

:08:16. > :08:22.It did its -- it did this against the Justice Department. The

:08:23. > :08:27.difficulty the FBI had was that this information, for what it's worth, it

:08:28. > :08:30.came to them. Were they not to have said something and it worked to have

:08:31. > :08:35.come out later, they would have been accused of a massive cover-up. They

:08:36. > :08:40.are dammed if they do, dammed if they don't. There is still time for

:08:41. > :08:43.another surprise. And early November surprise. Who knows if there might

:08:44. > :08:49.still be something that comes out on Donald Trump? This is the first

:08:50. > :08:55.election where I can remember we have had two October surprises

:08:56. > :08:59.already. There are is stuff about tapes knocking around about Donald

:09:00. > :09:03.Trump saying racist things. The Clintons have got a lot of friends.

:09:04. > :09:05.It would be a big surprise if we did not see anything else in the next

:09:06. > :09:11.few days. Just when you think it could not get

:09:12. > :09:14.more interesting, it has. There has been plenty in the papers lately

:09:15. > :09:17.about the Ukip leadership saying unpleasant things about each other.

:09:18. > :09:20.But what about Mr Farage himself? What's he up to?

:09:21. > :09:22.Well, on BBC Two tonight we may find out the answer.

:09:23. > :09:29.Well, I'm led to believe she's very experienced.

:09:30. > :09:32.But I don't think Strictly Come Dancing is for me.

:09:33. > :09:38.That is, unless, of course, you fancy popping a cheeky zero

:09:39. > :09:41.No, I don't think Strictly Come Dancing is for me.

:09:42. > :09:48.Well, you tell Mr Balls he has just lost your programme one viewer.

:09:49. > :09:56.I might have nothing to do these days but, realistically,

:09:57. > :10:13.Well, that wasn't Nigel Farage. It is a BBC comedy on tonight. Nigel

:10:14. > :10:17.Farage gets his life back. A number of runners and riders. Let's come

:10:18. > :10:22.straight down to it. Who would be the next leader of Ukip? Probably

:10:23. > :10:29.Paul Nuttall. He is the favourite. The one who has the backing, not

:10:30. > :10:36.very enthusiastic backing, is Rahim Cassandra. And also Aaron Banks a

:10:37. > :10:43.big donor. The best of a rather weak lot. I think Paul Nuttall should

:10:44. > :10:54.squeak through. I interviewed all three of them this week. Mr

:10:55. > :10:58.Cassandra is a lively character and he knows how to make a few

:10:59. > :11:02.headlines. With a bit of money behind him, anything is possible.

:11:03. > :11:12.This is a guy who has been to the States, who has literally studied

:11:13. > :11:16.what Trump has done. Pees on secondment for the time being. The

:11:17. > :11:22.guy who is his line manager is one of Donald Trump's campaign stop He

:11:23. > :11:27.is extraordinarily right-wing. I am told he kept a picture of Enoch

:11:28. > :11:38.Powell by his bed. Barry Goldwater is one of his heroes, for example.

:11:39. > :11:44.There are other candidates. I would suggest, put out as a hypothesis,

:11:45. > :11:50.Paul Nuttall is Labour's worst nightmare. They are more vulnerable

:11:51. > :11:52.in the North. Paul Nuttall is from Merseyside, a working-class

:11:53. > :11:57.background, performs well on television. He is a really good

:11:58. > :12:02.interviewee. He is one of the best around in politics at the moment.

:12:03. > :12:06.However, I think whoever gets it has a massive task. The clip of this

:12:07. > :12:13.Nigel Farage satire partly shows why. His dominance was overwhelming.

:12:14. > :12:18.He, in many ways, did a brilliant job at keeping the show on the road.

:12:19. > :12:22.The trouble for all new political parties is keeping it going is

:12:23. > :12:27.tough. A very different party, the SDP, with all those glamorous

:12:28. > :12:31.figures in it, lasted eight years, something like that. I think they

:12:32. > :12:34.are in real trouble at the moment because of the implosion we have

:12:35. > :12:40.been seeing in front of our eyes and the ideal -- ideological splits

:12:41. > :12:49.Whoever gets it will face a tough tussle. All three of the main

:12:50. > :12:54.contenders want to put Nigel Farage in the House of Lords. They were

:12:55. > :12:57.falling over themselves to soak up two farads. That is how you win this

:12:58. > :13:03.election. Mr Aaron Banks, who is he putting

:13:04. > :13:08.his money on? He said he supports Rahim. I know Mr Banks is utterly

:13:09. > :13:12.fed with the shenanigans in Ukip. He thinks it is terribly disorganised,

:13:13. > :13:16.dysfunctional and doesn't want a great deal to do with it for the

:13:17. > :13:20.foreseeable future. It is not quite Trump the Clinton

:13:21. > :13:26.but it is interesting. That is it. The Daily Politics is back tomorrow.

:13:27. > :13:31.And all of next week. Jo Coburn will be your next Sunday because I am off

:13:32. > :13:35.to the United States to begin to rehearse presenting the BBC's US

:13:36. > :13:39.election night coverage on the th of November. It will be here on BBC

:13:40. > :13:40.One, BBC world, BBC News Channel and BBC

:13:41. > :13:42.online. Remember if it's Sunday,

:13:43. > :14:12.it's the Sunday Politics. A stone stained with blood

:14:13. > :14:16.and beset with a curse. The Moonstone is of

:14:17. > :14:19.inestimable value in India. Its appointed guardians would move

:14:20. > :14:23.heaven and earth to reclaim it Let us not let the past haunt

:14:24. > :14:32.all of our actions. You've got to do something!

:14:33. > :14:32.It's only you that can! He's a scientist,

:14:33. > :14:35.brilliant apparently.