:00:41. > :00:46.It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:47. > :00:47.Theresa May still has plenty on her plate,
:00:48. > :00:49.not least a battle over Brexit in the Lords.
:00:50. > :00:51.But after Thursday's by-election win in Copeland,
:00:52. > :00:52.the Prime Minister looks stronger than ever.
:00:53. > :00:55.Jeremy Corbyn's Labour saw off Ukip in this week's other by-election,
:00:56. > :00:58.but losing to the Tories in a heartland seat leaves the party
:00:59. > :01:08.The leader of Scottish Labour joins me live.
:01:09. > :01:13.You look at what's happening last night in Sweden. Sweden!
:01:14. > :01:16.And Donald Trump may have been mocked for talking about the impact
:01:17. > :01:18.of migration on Sweden, but after riots in Stockholm this
:01:19. > :01:26.week, did the US president have the last laugh?
:01:27. > :01:31.In London, will the rise in council tax in all but four local
:01:32. > :01:38.authorities be enough to alleviate the crisis in social care?
:01:39. > :01:41.And joining me for all of that, three journalists who I'm pleased
:01:42. > :01:49.to say have so far not been banned from the White House.
:01:50. > :01:53.I've tried banning them from this show repeatedly,
:01:54. > :01:56.but somehow they just keep getting past BBC security - it's Sam Coates,
:01:57. > :02:06.We have had two crucial by-elections, the results last
:02:07. > :02:11.Thursday night. It's now Sunday morning, where do they believe
:02:12. > :02:15.British politics? I think it leaves British politics looking as if it
:02:16. > :02:19.may go ahead without Ukip is a strong and robust force. It is
:02:20. > :02:25.difficult to see from where we are now how Ukip rebuilds into a
:02:26. > :02:30.credible vote winning operation. I think it looks unprofessional, the
:02:31. > :02:34.campaign they fought in Stoke was clearly winnable because the margin
:02:35. > :02:38.with which Labour held onto that seat was not an impressive one but
:02:39. > :02:42.they put forward arguably the wrong candidate, it was messy and it's
:02:43. > :02:46.hard to see where they go from here, particularly with the money problems
:02:47. > :02:52.they have and even Nigel Farage saying he's fed up of the party. If
:02:53. > :02:58.Isabel is right, if Ukip is no longer a major factor, you look at
:02:59. > :03:03.the state of Labour and the Lib Dems coming from a long way behind
:03:04. > :03:08.despite their local government by-election successes, Tories never
:03:09. > :03:12.more dominant. I think Theresa May is in a fascinating situation. She's
:03:13. > :03:18.the most powerful Prime Minister of modern times for now because she
:03:19. > :03:22.faces no confident, formidable opposition. Unlike Margaret Thatcher
:03:23. > :03:27.who in the 1980s, although she won landslides in the end, often looked
:03:28. > :03:33.like she was in trouble. She was inferred quite often in the build-up
:03:34. > :03:40.to the election. David Owen, Roy Jenkins, Shirley Williams. And quite
:03:41. > :03:45.often she was worried. At the moment Theresa May faces no formidable UK
:03:46. > :03:49.opposition. However, she is both strong and fragile because her
:03:50. > :03:53.agenda is Brexit, which I still think many have not got to grips
:03:54. > :03:58.with in terms of how complex and training and difficult it will be
:03:59. > :04:04.for her. Thatcher faced no equivalent to Brexit so she is both
:04:05. > :04:08.strong, formidably strong because of the wider UK political context, and
:04:09. > :04:12.very fragile. It is just when you think you have never been more
:04:13. > :04:17.dominant you are actually at the most dangerous, what can possibly go
:04:18. > :04:20.wrong? I think that the money of her MPs they haven't begun to think
:04:21. > :04:26.through the practicalities of Brexit and she does have a working majority
:04:27. > :04:29.of about 17 in the House of Commons so at any point she could be put
:04:30. > :04:33.under pressure from really opposition these days is done by the
:04:34. > :04:40.two wins inside the Conservative Party, either the 15 Europhiles or
:04:41. > :04:42.the bigger group of about 60 Brexiteers who have continued to
:04:43. > :04:47.operate as a united and disciplined force within the Conservative Party
:04:48. > :04:51.to get their agenda on the table. Either of those wings could be
:04:52. > :04:55.disappointed at any point in the next three and a half years and that
:04:56. > :05:01.would put her under pressure. I wouldn't completely rule out Ukip
:05:02. > :05:05.coming back. The reason Ukip lost in Stoke I think it's because at the
:05:06. > :05:11.moment Theresa May is delivering pretty much everything Ukip figures
:05:12. > :05:14.might want to see. We might find the phrase Brexit means Brexit quite
:05:15. > :05:17.anodyne but I think she is convincing people she will press
:05:18. > :05:24.ahead with their agenda and deliver the leave vote that people buy a
:05:25. > :05:28.slim majority voted for. Should that change, should there be talk of
:05:29. > :05:32.transition periods, shut the migration settlement not make people
:05:33. > :05:36.happy, then I think Ukip risks charging back up the centre ground
:05:37. > :05:41.and causing more problems in future. That could be a two year gap in
:05:42. > :05:44.which Ukip would have to survive. As I said, Ukip is on our agenda for
:05:45. > :05:45.today. Thursday was a big night
:05:46. > :05:47.for political obsessives like us, with not one but two
:05:48. > :05:52.significant by-elections, Ellie braved the wind and rain
:05:53. > :05:59.to bring you this report. The clouds had gathered,
:06:00. > :06:04.the winds blew at gale force. Was a change in the air, or just
:06:05. > :06:09.a weather system called Doris? Voters in Stoke-on-Trent
:06:10. > :06:12.were about to find out. It's here, a sports hall
:06:13. > :06:16.on a Thursday night that the country's media reckon
:06:17. > :06:22.is the true eye of the storm. Would Labour suffer a lightning
:06:23. > :06:24.strike to its very heart, or would the Ukip threat proved
:06:25. > :06:27.to be a damp squib? Everybody seems to think the result
:06:28. > :06:30.in Stoke-on-Trent would be close, just as they did 150-odd miles away
:06:31. > :06:33.in Copeland, where the Tories are counting on stealing another
:06:34. > :06:38.Labour heartland seat. Areas of high pressure in both
:06:39. > :06:46.places, and some strange sights. We knew this wasn't a normal
:06:47. > :06:48.by-election, and to prove it there is the rapper,
:06:49. > :06:50.Professor Green. Chart-toppers aside,
:06:51. > :06:53.winner of Stoke-on-Trent hit parade was announced first,
:06:54. > :06:56.where everyone was so excited the candidates didn't even make it
:06:57. > :07:00.onto the stage for the result. And I do hereby declare
:07:01. > :07:03.that the said Gareth Snell Nigel Farage has said that victory
:07:04. > :07:11.here in Stoke-on-Trent But Ukip's newish leader
:07:12. > :07:17.played down the defeat, insisting his party's
:07:18. > :07:21.time would come. Are you going to stand again
:07:22. > :07:27.as an MP or has this No doubt I will stand again,
:07:28. > :07:30.don't worry about that. The politics of hope beat
:07:31. > :07:39.the politics of fear. I think Ukip are the ones this
:07:40. > :07:42.weekend who have got But a few minutes later,
:07:43. > :07:47.it turned out Labour had Harrison, Trudy Lynn,
:07:48. > :07:51.the Conservative Party That was more than 2,000
:07:52. > :08:02.votes ahead of Labour. What has happened here tonight
:08:03. > :08:07.is a truly historic event. Labour were disappointed,
:08:08. > :08:08.but determined to be optimistic At a point when we're 15 to 18
:08:09. > :08:20.points behind in the polls... The Conservatives within 2000 votes
:08:21. > :08:24.I think is an incredible The morning after the night
:08:25. > :08:29.before, the losing parties were licking their wounds
:08:30. > :08:33.and their lips over breakfast. For years and years,
:08:34. > :08:36.Ukip was Nigel Farage, That has now changed,
:08:37. > :08:43.that era has gone. It's a new era, it is
:08:44. > :08:45.a second age for us. So that needs to be
:08:46. > :08:50.more fully embedded, it needs to be more defined,
:08:51. > :08:53.you know, and that will We have to continue to improve
:08:54. > :09:02.in seats where we have stood. As we have done here,
:09:03. > :09:04.we've improved on our 2015 result, that's what important,
:09:05. > :09:07.is that we are taking steps Can I be the first to come
:09:08. > :09:12.here today to congratulate you on being elected the new MP
:09:13. > :09:14.for Stoke on Trent Central. Jeremy Corbyn has just arrived
:09:15. > :09:18.in Stoke to welcome his newest MP. Not sure he's going to
:09:19. > :09:23.Copeland later though. Earlier in the day, the Labour
:09:24. > :09:26.leader had made clear he'd considered and discounted some
:09:27. > :09:28.theories about the party's Since you found out that you'd lost
:09:29. > :09:34.a seat to a governing party for the first time
:09:35. > :09:38.since the Falklands War, have you at any point this morning
:09:39. > :09:41.looked in the mirror and asked yourself this question -
:09:42. > :09:46.could the problem actually be me? In the end it was the Conservatives
:09:47. > :09:53.who came out on top. No governing party has made
:09:54. > :09:56.a gain at a by-election With the self-styled people's army
:09:57. > :10:02.of Ukip halted in Stoke, and Labour's wash-out
:10:03. > :10:06.here in Copeland... There's little chance of rain
:10:07. > :10:18.on Theresa May's parade. In the wake of that loss in
:10:19. > :10:21.Copeland, the Scottish Labour Party has been meeting for its spring
:10:22. > :10:23.conference in the Yesterday, deputy leader Tom Watson
:10:24. > :10:28.warned delegates that unless Labour took the by-election defeat
:10:29. > :10:30.seriously, the party's devastation in Scotland could be repeated
:10:31. > :10:33.south of the border. Well, I'm joined now
:10:34. > :10:49.by the leader of Scottish Labour, Even after your party had lost
:10:50. > :10:52.Copeland to the Tories and with Labour now trailing 16 points in the
:10:53. > :10:57.UK polls, you claim to have every faith that Jeremy Corbyn would
:10:58. > :11:05.absolutely win the general election. What evidence can you bring to
:11:06. > :11:07.support that? There is no doubt the result in Copeland was disappointing
:11:08. > :11:11.for the Labour Party and I think it's a collective feeling for
:11:12. > :11:14.everyone within the Labour Party and I want to do what I can to turn
:11:15. > :11:18.around the fortunes of our party. That's what I've committed to do
:11:19. > :11:24.while I have been the Scottish Labour leader. This two years ago we
:11:25. > :11:28.were down the mines so to speak in terms of losing the faith of working
:11:29. > :11:32.class communities across the country, but we listened very hard
:11:33. > :11:36.to the message voters are sending and responded to it. That's what I'm
:11:37. > :11:42.committed to doing in Scotland and that's what Jeremy Corbyn is
:11:43. > :11:48.committed to doing UK wide. The latest polls put Labour at 14% in
:11:49. > :11:54.Scotland, the Tories at ten points ahead of you in Scotland, even
:11:55. > :11:59.Theresa May is more popular than Jeremy Corbyn in Scotland. So I will
:12:00. > :12:04.try again - why are you so sure Jeremy Corbyn could win a general
:12:05. > :12:07.election? What I said when you are talking about Scotland is that I'm
:12:08. > :12:12.the leader of the Scottish Labour Party and I take responsibility for
:12:13. > :12:14.our policies here. Voters said very clearly after the Scottish
:12:15. > :12:18.Parliament election that they didn't have a clear enough sense of what we
:12:19. > :12:22.stood for so I have been advocating a very strong anti-austerity
:12:23. > :12:26.platform, coming up with ideas of how we can oppose the cuts and
:12:27. > :12:30.invest in our future. That is something Jeremy Corbyn also
:12:31. > :12:37.supports but I've also made it clear this weekend that we are opposed to
:12:38. > :12:40.a second independence referendum. I want to bring Scotland back together
:12:41. > :12:45.by focusing on the future and that's why I have been speaking about the
:12:46. > :12:48.federal solution for the UK. I know that Jeremy Corbyn shares that
:12:49. > :12:52.ambition because he is backing the plans for a people's Constitutional
:12:53. > :13:00.Convention. Yes, these are difficult times for the Scottish Labour Party
:13:01. > :13:05.and UK family, but I have a plan in place to turn things around. It will
:13:06. > :13:10.take time though. I'm still not sure why you are so sure the Labour party
:13:11. > :13:15.can win but let me come onto your plan. You want a UK wide
:13:16. > :13:21.Constitutional Convention and that lead to a new Federalist settlement.
:13:22. > :13:27.Is it the policy of the Labour Shadow Cabinet in Westminster to
:13:28. > :13:31.carve England into federal regions? What we support at a UK wide level
:13:32. > :13:35.is the people's constitutional convention. I have been careful to
:13:36. > :13:38.prescribe what I think is in the best interests of Scotland but not
:13:39. > :13:44.to dictate to other parts of the UK what is good for them, that's the
:13:45. > :13:48.point of the people's constitutional convention. You heard Tom Watson say
:13:49. > :13:52.there has to be a UK wide conversation about power, who has it
:13:53. > :13:56.and how it is exercised across England. England hasn't been part of
:13:57. > :14:01.this devolution story over the last 20 years, it is something that
:14:02. > :14:06.happened between Scotland and London or Wales and London. No wonder
:14:07. > :14:08.people in England feel disenfranchised from that. What
:14:09. > :14:15.evidence can you bring to show there is any appetite in England for an
:14:16. > :14:19.English federal solution to England, to carve England into federal
:14:20. > :14:23.regions? Have you spoken to John Prescott about this? He might tell
:14:24. > :14:28.you some of the difficulties. There's not even a debate about that
:14:29. > :14:33.here, Kezia Dugdale, it is fantasy. I speak to John Prescott regularly.
:14:34. > :14:37.What there is a debate about is the idea the world is changing so fast
:14:38. > :14:40.that globalisation is taking jobs away from communities in the
:14:41. > :14:45.north-east, that many working class communities feel left behind, that
:14:46. > :14:48.Westminster feels very far away and the politicians within it feel
:14:49. > :14:52.remote in part of the establishment. People are fed up with power being
:14:53. > :14:55.exercised somewhere else, that's where I think federalism comes in
:14:56. > :14:59.because it's about bringing power closer to people and in many ways
:15:00. > :15:08.it's forced on us because of Brexit. We know the United Kingdom is
:15:09. > :15:10.leaving the European Union so we have to talk about the repatriation
:15:11. > :15:13.of those powers from Brussels to Britain. I want many of those powers
:15:14. > :15:16.to go to the Scottish parliament but where should they go in the English
:15:17. > :15:20.context? It is not as things currently stand the policy of the
:15:21. > :15:21.English Labour Party to carve England into federal regions,
:15:22. > :15:30.correct? It is absolutely the policy of the
:15:31. > :15:35.UK Labour Party to support the people's Constitutional convention
:15:36. > :15:39.to examining these questions. I think it is really important. You're
:15:40. > :15:43.promising the Scottish people a federal solution, and you have not
:15:44. > :15:48.even squared your own party for a federal solution in England. That is
:15:49. > :15:52.not true. The UK Labour Party is united on this. I am going to
:15:53. > :15:57.Cardiff next month to meet with Carwyn Jones and various leaders.
:15:58. > :16:01.United on a federal solution? You know as well as I know it is not
:16:02. > :16:05.united on a federal solution. We will have a conversation about power
:16:06. > :16:29.in this country. It is not united on that
:16:30. > :16:33.issue? This is the direction of travel. It is what you heard
:16:34. > :16:35.yesterday from Sadiq Khan, from Tom Watson, when you hear from people
:16:36. > :16:37.like Nick Forbes who lead Newcastle City Council and Labour's Local
:16:38. > :16:39.Government Association. There is an appetite for talking about power.
:16:40. > :16:42.Talking is one thing. We need to have this conversation across the
:16:43. > :16:44.whole of the United Kingdom, to have a reformed United Kingdom. It is a
:16:45. > :16:46.conversation you're offering Scotland, not the policy. Let's come
:16:47. > :16:49.onto the labour made of London. He was in power for your conference. He
:16:50. > :16:51.wrote in the record yesterday, there is no difference between Scottish
:16:52. > :16:55.nationalism and racism. Would you like this opportunity to distance
:16:56. > :16:59.yourself from that absurd claim? I think that Sadiq Khan was very clear
:17:00. > :17:04.yesterday that he was not accusing the SNP of racism. What he was
:17:05. > :17:08.saying clearly is that nationalism by its very nature divides people
:17:09. > :17:13.and communities. That is what I said in my speech yesterday. I am fed up
:17:14. > :17:17.living in a divided and fractured country and society. Our politics is
:17:18. > :17:23.forcing is constantly to pick sides, whether you're a no, leave a remain,
:17:24. > :17:26.it brings out the worst in our politicians and politics. All the
:17:27. > :17:31.consensus we find in the grey areas is lost. That is why am standing
:17:32. > :17:45.under a banner that together we are stronger. We have to come up with
:17:46. > :17:50.ideas and focus on the future. That is why I agree with Sadiq Khan. He
:17:51. > :17:52.said quite clearly in the Daily Record yesterday, and that the last
:17:53. > :17:55.minute he adapted his speech to your conference yesterday, to try and
:17:56. > :17:57.reduce the impact, that there was no difference between Scottish
:17:58. > :18:01.nationalism and racism. Your colleague, and Sarwar, said that
:18:02. > :18:05.even after he had tried to introduce the caveats, all forms of
:18:06. > :18:13.nationalism rely on creating eyes and them. Let's call it for what it
:18:14. > :18:17.is. So you are implying that the Scottish Nationalists are racist.
:18:18. > :18:21.Would you care to distance yourself from that absurd claim? I utterly
:18:22. > :18:27.refute that that is what Sadiq Khan said. I would never suggest that the
:18:28. > :18:32.SNP are an inherently racist party. That does is a disservice. He did
:18:33. > :18:36.not see it. What he did say, however, is that nationalism is
:18:37. > :18:41.divisive. You know that better than anyone. I see your Twitter account.
:18:42. > :18:46.Regularly your attack for the job you do as a journalist. Politics in
:18:47. > :18:52.Scotland is divided on. I do not want to revisit that independence
:18:53. > :18:54.question again for that reason. As leader of the Labour Party, I want
:18:55. > :19:01.to bring our country back together, appeal to people who voted yes and
:19:02. > :19:04.no. That banner, together we are stronger, that is where the answers
:19:05. > :19:09.lie in defaulters can be found. If in response to the Mayor of London,
:19:10. > :19:13.your colleague says, let's call it out for what it is, what is he
:19:14. > :19:21.referring to if he is not implying that national symbol is racist? --
:19:22. > :19:26.and that nationalism is racist? He is saying that it leads to divisive
:19:27. > :19:29.politics. The Labour Party has always advocated that together we
:19:30. > :19:34.are stronger. Saying something is divisive is very different from
:19:35. > :19:38.saying something is racist. That is what the Mayor of London said. That
:19:39. > :19:43.is what your colleague was referring to. He did not. You would really
:19:44. > :19:48.struggle to quote that from the Mayor of London. He talked about
:19:49. > :19:54.being divided by race. What does that mean? I think he was very clear
:19:55. > :19:58.that he was talking about divided politics. There is an appetite the
:19:59. > :20:03.length and breadth of the country to end that divisive politics. That is
:20:04. > :20:07.what I stand for, focusing on the future, bringing people back
:20:08. > :20:11.together, concentrating on what the economy might look like in 20 years'
:20:12. > :20:12.time in coming up with ideas to tackle it today. Thank you for
:20:13. > :20:14.joining us. Thursday's win for Labour
:20:15. > :20:16.in Stoke-on-Trent Central gave some relief to Jeremy Corbyn,
:20:17. > :20:18.but for Ukip leader and defeated Stoke candidate Paul Nuttall
:20:19. > :20:21.there were no consolation prizes. I'm joined now by Mr Nuttall's
:20:22. > :20:31.principal political Welcome to the programme. Good
:20:32. > :20:35.morning. How long will Paul Nuttall survivors Ukip leader, days, weeks,
:20:36. > :20:41.months? You are in danger of not seeing the wood for the trees. Ukip
:20:42. > :20:45.was formed in 1993 with the express purpose, much mocked, of getting
:20:46. > :20:49.Britain out of the European Union. Under the brilliant leadership of
:20:50. > :20:53.Nigel Farage, we were crucial in forcing a vacuous Prime Minister to
:20:54. > :20:59.make a referendum promise he did not want to give. With our friends in
:21:00. > :21:05.Fort leave and other organisations. Mac we know that. Get to the answer.
:21:06. > :21:10.We helped to win that referendum. The iteration of Ukip at the moment
:21:11. > :21:15.that we're in, the primary purpose, we are the guard dog of Brexit.
:21:16. > :21:20.Viewed through that prism, the Stoke by-election was a brilliant success.
:21:21. > :21:25.A brilliant success? We had the Tory candidate that had pumped out
:21:26. > :21:29.publicity for Remain, for Cameron Bradley, preaching the gospel of
:21:30. > :21:34.Brexit. We had a Labour candidate and we know what he really felt
:21:35. > :21:36.about Brexit, preaching the Gospel according to Brexit. You lost. Well
:21:37. > :21:53.the by-election was going on, we had the Labour Party in the House of
:21:54. > :21:55.Commons pass the idea of trickling Article 50 by a landslide. Are
:21:56. > :21:57.passionate thing, the thing that 35,000 Ukip members care about the
:21:58. > :22:00.most, it is an extraordinary achievement. I am very proud. What
:22:01. > :22:02.would you have described as victory as? If we could have got Paul
:22:03. > :22:06.Nuttall into the House of Commons, that would have been a fantastic
:22:07. > :22:12.cherry on the top. Losing was an extraordinary achievement? Many Ukip
:22:13. > :22:18.supporters the Stoke was winnable, but Paul Nuttall's campaign was
:22:19. > :22:25.marred by controversy, Tory voters refuse to vote tactically for Ukip
:22:26. > :22:29.to beat Labour, his campaign, Mr Nuttall is to blame for not winning
:22:30. > :22:33.what was a winnable seat? I do not see that at all. This is
:22:34. > :22:38.counterintuitive, but Jeremy Corbyn did do one thing that made it more
:22:39. > :22:43.difficult for us to win. Fantasy. That was to take Labour into a
:22:44. > :22:49.Brexit position formerly. Just over 50 Labour MPs had voted against
:22:50. > :22:52.triggering Article 50. In political terms, we have intimidated the
:22:53. > :22:55.Labour Party into backing Brexit. How much good is it doing you? It
:22:56. > :23:12.comes to the heart of the problem your party faces.
:23:13. > :23:14.You're struggling to win Tory Eurosceptic voters. For the moment,
:23:15. > :23:16.they seem happy with Theresa May. Stoke shows you're not winning
:23:17. > :23:18.Labour Brexit voters either. If you cannot get the solution Tolisso
:23:19. > :23:21.labour, where does your Broad come from? In terms of the by-election,
:23:22. > :23:24.it came very early for Paul. I'm talking about the future. We have a
:23:25. > :23:28.future agenda, and ideological argument with Jeremy Corbyn's Labour
:23:29. > :23:33.Party, which is wedded to the notion of global citizenship and does not
:23:34. > :23:37.recognise the nation state. We know he spent Christmas sitting around
:23:38. > :23:41.campfires with Mexican Marxist dreaming of global government. We
:23:42. > :23:44.believe in the nation state. We believe that the patriotic working
:23:45. > :23:50.class vote will be receptive to that. Your Broad went down by 9% in
:23:51. > :23:55.Cortland. In Copeland we were squeezed. In Stoke, we were unable
:23:56. > :24:01.to squeeze the Tories, who are on a high. Our agenda is that social
:24:02. > :24:05.solidarity is important but we arrange it in this country by nation
:24:06. > :24:10.and community. We want an immigration system that is not only
:24:11. > :24:14.reducing... We know what you want. I do not think people do. You had a
:24:15. > :24:19.whole by-election to tell people and they did not vote for you and. When
:24:20. > :24:24.Nigel Farage said it was fundamental that you were winner in Stoke, he
:24:25. > :24:32.was wrong? Nigel chooses his own words. I would not rewrite them. It
:24:33. > :24:35.would be a massive advantage to Ukip to have a leader in the House of
:24:36. > :24:38.Commons in time to reply to the budget, Prime Minister's questions
:24:39. > :24:41.and all of that. But we have taken the strategic view that we will
:24:42. > :24:46.fight the Labour Party for the working class vote. It is also true
:24:47. > :24:50.that the Conservatives will make a pitch for the working class vote
:24:51. > :24:54.might as well. All three parties have certain advantages and
:24:55. > :24:59.disadvantages. As part of that page, Nigel Farage said that your leader,
:25:00. > :25:03.Paul Nuttall, should have taken a clear, by which I assume he meant
:25:04. > :25:09.tough, line on immigration. Do you agree? He took a tough line on
:25:10. > :25:13.immigration. He developed that idea at our party conference in the
:25:14. > :25:17.spring. Nigel Farage did not think so? Nigel Farage made his speech
:25:18. > :25:23.before Paul Nuttall made his speech. He said this in the aftermath of the
:25:24. > :25:30.result. Once we have freedom to control and Borders, Paul wants to
:25:31. > :25:33.set up an immigration system that includes an aptitude test, do you
:25:34. > :25:39.have skills that the British economy needs, but also, and attitudes test,
:25:40. > :25:44.do you subscribe to core British values such as gender equality and
:25:45. > :25:48.freedom of expression? We will be making these arguments. It is
:25:49. > :25:52.certainly true that Paul's campaign was thrown off course by,
:25:53. > :25:58.particularly something that we knew the Labour Party had been preparing
:25:59. > :26:01.to run, the smear on the untruths, the implications about Hillsborough.
:26:02. > :26:07.If you knew you should have anticipated it. Alan Banks, he helps
:26:08. > :26:12.to bankroll your party, he said that Mr Nuttall needs to toss out the
:26:13. > :26:15.Tory cabal in Europe, by which he means Douglas Carswell, Neil
:26:16. > :26:21.Hamilton. Should they be stripped of their membership? Of course not. As
:26:22. > :26:24.far as I knew, Alan Banks was a member of the Conservative Party
:26:25. > :26:29.formally. I do not know who this Tory cabal is supposed to be. He
:26:30. > :26:33.says that your party is more like a jumble sale than a political party.
:26:34. > :26:39.He says that the party should make him chairman or they will work. What
:26:40. > :26:42.do you see to that? He has made that statement several times over many
:26:43. > :26:47.months, including if you do not throw out your only MP. Douglas
:26:48. > :26:51.Carswell has managed to win twice under Ukip colours. Should Tibi
:26:52. > :26:58.chairman? I think we have an excellent young chairman at the
:26:59. > :27:03.moment. He is doing a good job. The idea that Leave.EU was as smooth
:27:04. > :27:06.running brilliant machine, that does not sit with the facts as I
:27:07. > :27:10.understand them. Suzanne Evans says it would be no great loss for Ukip
:27:11. > :27:16.if Mr Banks walked out, severed his ties and took his money elsewhere.
:27:17. > :27:19.Is she right. I am always happy people who want to give money and
:27:20. > :27:24.support your party want to stay in the party. The best donors donate
:27:25. > :27:28.and do not seek to dictate. If they are experts in certain fields,
:27:29. > :27:31.people should listen to their views but to have a daughter telling the
:27:32. > :27:37.party leader who should be party chairman, that is a nonstarter. You
:27:38. > :27:42.have described your existing party chairman is excellent. He said it
:27:43. > :27:47.could be 20 years before Ukip wins by-election. Is he being too
:27:48. > :27:51.optimistic? There is a general election coming up in the years'
:27:52. > :27:56.time. We will be aiming to win seats in that. Before that, we will be the
:27:57. > :28:01.guard dog for Brexit, to make sure this extraordinary achievement of a
:28:02. > :28:05.little party... You are guard dog without a kennel, you cannot get
:28:06. > :28:09.seat? We're keeping the big establishment parties to do the will
:28:10. > :28:13.of the people. If we achieve nothing else at all, that will be a
:28:14. > :28:14.magnificent achievement. Thank you very much.
:28:15. > :28:16.Sweden isn't somewhere we talk about often
:28:17. > :28:20.should because this week it was pulled into
:28:21. > :28:20.the global spotlight, thanks
:28:21. > :28:30.Last weekend, Mr Trump was mocked for referring to an incident that
:28:31. > :28:33.had occurred last night in Sweden as a result of the country's open
:28:34. > :28:37.Critics were quick to point out that no such incident had occurred
:28:38. > :28:39.and Mr Trump later clarified on Twitter and he was talking
:28:40. > :28:43.about a report he had watched on Fox News.
:28:44. > :28:45.But as if to prove he was onto something,
:28:46. > :28:47.next day a riot broke out in a Stockholm suburb
:28:48. > :28:50.with a large migrant population, following unrest in such areas
:28:51. > :29:00.So what has been Sweden's experience of migration?
:29:01. > :29:02.In 2015, a record 162,000 people claimed asylum there, the second
:29:03. > :29:09.That number dropped to 29,000 in 2016 after the country introduced
:29:10. > :29:11.border restrictions and stopped offering permanent
:29:12. > :29:19.Tensions have risen, along with claims of links to crime,
:29:20. > :29:21.although official statistics do not provide evidence of a refugee driven
:29:22. > :29:30.Nigel Farage defended Mr Trump, claiming this week that migrants
:29:31. > :29:33.have led to a dramatic rise in sexual offences.
:29:34. > :29:35.Although the country does have the highest reported
:29:36. > :29:37.rate of rape in Europe, Swedish authorities say recent rises
:29:38. > :29:42.were due to changes to how rape and sex crimes are recorded.
:29:43. > :29:45.Aside from the issue of crime, Sweden has struggled
:29:46. > :29:50.Levels of inequality between natives and migrants when it comes
:29:51. > :29:54.Unemployment rates are three times higher for foreign-born workers
:29:55. > :30:06.We're joined now by Laila Naraghi, she's a Swedish MP from the
:30:07. > :30:09.governing Social Democratic Party, and by the author and
:30:10. > :30:24.The Swedish political establishment was outraged by Mr Trump's remarks,
:30:25. > :30:29.pointing to a riot that hadn't taken place, then a few nights later
:30:30. > :30:33.serious riots did break out in a largely migrant suburb of Stockholm
:30:34. > :30:38.so he wasn't far out, was he? I think he was far out because he is
:30:39. > :30:43.misleading the public with how he uses these statistics. I think it is
:30:44. > :30:47.important to remember that the violence has decreased in Sweden for
:30:48. > :30:50.the past 20 years and research shows there is no evidence that indicate
:30:51. > :30:59.that immigration leads to crime and so I think it is far out. The social
:31:00. > :31:03.unrest in these different areas is not because of their ethical
:31:04. > :31:09.backgrounds of these people living there but more about social economic
:31:10. > :31:13.reasons. OK, no evidence migrants are responsible for any kind of
:31:14. > :31:21.crime? This story reminds me after what happened to the Charlie Hebdo
:31:22. > :31:26.attacks in Paris when also a Fox News commentator said something that
:31:27. > :31:30.was outlandish about Paris and the Mayor of Paris threatened to sue Fox
:31:31. > :31:34.News, saying you are making our city look bad. It's a bit like that
:31:35. > :31:39.because the truth on this lies between Donald Trump on the Swedish
:31:40. > :31:45.authorities on this. Sweden and Swedish government is very reluctant
:31:46. > :31:48.to admit any downsides of its own migration policy and particularly
:31:49. > :31:54.the migration it hard in 2015 but there are very obvious downsides
:31:55. > :32:00.because Sweden is not a country that needs a non-skilled labour force
:32:01. > :32:05.which doesn't speak Swedish. What was raised as the matter of
:32:06. > :32:09.evidence, what is the evidence? First of all if I can say so the
:32:10. > :32:12.rape statistics in Sweden that have been cited are familiar with the
:32:13. > :32:17.rape statistics across other countries that have seen similar
:32:18. > :32:21.forms of migration. Danish authorities and the Norwegian
:32:22. > :32:26.authorities have recorded a similar thing. It is not done by ethnicity
:32:27. > :32:32.so we don't know. And this is part of the problem. It is again a lot of
:32:33. > :32:38.lies and rumours going about. When it is about for example rape, it is
:32:39. > :32:43.difficult to compare the statistics because in Sweden for example many
:32:44. > :32:48.crimes that in other countries are labelled as bodily harm or assault
:32:49. > :32:53.are in Sweden labelled as rape. Also how it is counted because if a woman
:32:54. > :33:01.goes to the police and reports that her husband or boyfriend has raped
:33:02. > :33:06.her, and done it every night for one year, in Sweden that is counted as
:33:07. > :33:11.365 offences. Something is going wrong, I look at the recent news
:33:12. > :33:14.from Sweden. Six Afghan child refugees committed suicide in the
:33:15. > :33:20.last six months, unemployment among recent migrants now five times
:33:21. > :33:26.higher than among non-migrants. We have seen gang violence in Malmo
:33:27. > :33:30.where a British child was killed by a grenade, rioting in Stockholm.
:33:31. > :33:34.Police in Sweden say there are 53 areas of the country where it is now
:33:35. > :33:41.dangerous to patrol. Something has gone wrong. Let me get back to what
:33:42. > :33:46.I think is the core of this debate if I may and that is the right for
:33:47. > :33:50.people fleeing war and political persecution to seek asylum, that is
:33:51. > :33:55.a human right. In Sweden we don't think we can do everything, but we
:33:56. > :33:59.want to live up to our obligation, every country has an obligation to
:34:00. > :34:04.receive asylum seekers. But you have changed your policy on that because
:34:05. > :34:08.having taken 163,001 year alone, you have then closed your borders, I
:34:09. > :34:14.think very wisely, closed the border which means 10,000 people per day at
:34:15. > :34:18.one point were walking from Denmark in to Malmo, you rightly changed
:34:19. > :34:22.that so he realised whatever ones aspirations in terms of asylum, it
:34:23. > :34:29.sometimes meets reality and Sweden is meeting the reality of this.
:34:30. > :34:32.Let's respond to that. We are not naive, we know we cannot do
:34:33. > :34:36.everything but we want to try to do our share as we think other
:34:37. > :34:40.countries also need to do their share. But let me say that, if you
:34:41. > :34:43.look at what the World Economic Forum is saying about our country
:34:44. > :34:48.they show we are in the top of many rankings, the best country to live
:34:49. > :34:56.in, to age in, to have children in, to start into -- to start
:34:57. > :35:03.enterprise. Why have you not been so good at integrating migrants? The
:35:04. > :35:07.unemployment rate is five times higher among migrants than
:35:08. > :35:12.non-migrants and that's the highest ratio of any country in the EU and
:35:13. > :35:17.the OECD, why have you not been able to integrate the people you have
:35:18. > :35:22.brought in for humanitarian reasons? I'm sure there are things we can do
:35:23. > :35:25.much better of course but if you look for example at the immigration
:35:26. > :35:30.that came in the 90s from the Balkans, they are well integrated
:35:31. > :35:32.and contributing to our society. They are starting enterprises and
:35:33. > :35:41.working in different fields of society, and they help our country.
:35:42. > :35:47.Why have they not got jobs, the migrants that have come in? It takes
:35:48. > :35:52.time. In the 90s we managed it and I'm sure we can do it again. Can I
:35:53. > :35:56.put this into some context, it is clear Sweden has got problems as a
:35:57. > :36:01.result of the number of migrants that come in, whether it is as bad
:36:02. > :36:04.as Mr Trump and others make out is another matter, but perhaps I can
:36:05. > :36:09.put it into context. Malmo, which has been at the centre of many of
:36:10. > :36:16.these migrant problems, its homicide rate is three per hundred thousand.
:36:17. > :36:22.Chicago, 28 per 100,000. It may have problems but they are not huge. No,
:36:23. > :36:27.they are pretty huge and I think they will grow. The Balkan refugees
:36:28. > :36:31.into Sweden in the 90s did bring a lot of problems and Sweden did for
:36:32. > :36:35.the first time see serious ethnic gang rivalries. There was an upsurge
:36:36. > :36:41.in gang-related violence that has gone on since. The situation in
:36:42. > :36:45.Malmo in particular is exaggerated by some people, there's no doubt
:36:46. > :36:48.about that, I have been there many times and it is undoubtedly
:36:49. > :36:54.exaggerated by some, it is also vastly unpersuaded by the Swedish
:36:55. > :37:04.authorities. -- understated. In 2010, one in ten Jews in Malmo
:37:05. > :37:14.registered some form of attack on them. It got so bad that in 2010
:37:15. > :37:18.people offered to escort Jews... You have had a good say and I have got
:37:19. > :37:24.to be fair here, what do you say to that, Laila Naraghi? There are
:37:25. > :37:28.people trying to frame our country in a certain way to push their own
:37:29. > :37:35.agenda. I regret that President Trump is trying to slander our
:37:36. > :37:38.country. But what about the specific point on Malmo? If you speak to
:37:39. > :37:43.people in Malmo and also to different congregations, they say
:37:44. > :37:47.they are working together with the authorities to improve this. I say
:37:48. > :37:52.again, there are a lot of people trying to spread rumours and lies.
:37:53. > :37:57.Your situation is very like the situation we had in Britain when we
:37:58. > :38:01.have these situations in Rotherham and elsewhere. 1400 girls were raped
:38:02. > :38:06.in Rotherham before police even admitted it was going on. That
:38:07. > :38:09.happened in Britain in the last decade, a similar phenomenon. An
:38:10. > :38:13.upsurge in particularly sexual and other forms of violence and then
:38:14. > :38:18.total denial by an entire political class is now something that is
:38:19. > :38:21.happening in Sweden. I see it in Swedish authorities and the denial
:38:22. > :38:26.that comes up and the desire to laugh and dismiss Trump but he's not
:38:27. > :38:33.answer nothing and that's a painful thing for any society to want to
:38:34. > :38:40.admit to. There are number of Swedes who think the establishment is
:38:41. > :38:45.covering up the true statistics, that you don't break crime down by
:38:46. > :38:50.ethnic crimes, people are suspicious of the centre-left and centre-right
:38:51. > :38:54.parties now in Sweden. There is no denial and no cover-up. This is what
:38:55. > :38:58.I'm speaking about when I say people are trying to frame it in a certain
:38:59. > :39:02.way. The social unrest is not because of the ethnical background
:39:03. > :39:06.of the people living there but rather because of different
:39:07. > :39:11.socioeconomics conditions. There is no research that shows
:39:12. > :39:14.immigration... But you don't do the research into it. Swedish
:39:15. > :39:18.authorities deliberately ensure you cannot carry out such research and
:39:19. > :39:22.after the attacks in Cologne in 2015 it was the first time then that the
:39:23. > :39:26.Swedish authorities and press admitted that similar sexual
:39:27. > :39:33.molestation have been going on for years in Sweden. Is it right to
:39:34. > :39:38.think, given the problem is maybe not as bad as many people make out
:39:39. > :39:43.but clearly problems, given these problems, is the age of mass asylum
:39:44. > :39:48.seeking for Sweden over? You have cut the numbers by 80% coming in
:39:49. > :39:52.last year compared with 2015, is it over while you concentrate on
:39:53. > :39:57.getting right the people that you have there already? We want to do
:39:58. > :40:00.our share, we have done a lot and now we are concentrating of course
:40:01. > :40:13.on integration and making sure people get a job, and also
:40:14. > :40:17.on big welfare investments because it's important to remember that for
:40:18. > :40:19.eight years Sweden were governed by a government that prioritised big
:40:20. > :40:22.tax cuts instead of investment in welfare. It may just not work. I am
:40:23. > :40:24.grateful to you both, we have to leave it there.
:40:25. > :40:26.It's coming up to 11:40am, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
:40:27. > :40:29.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now
:40:30. > :40:34.the Week Ahead, when we'll be asking if the Government is facing defeat
:40:35. > :40:45.First though, the Sunday Politics where you are.
:40:46. > :40:50.We'll be putting social care under the spotlight this week.
:40:51. > :40:54.All but four of London's councils are putting up their council tax,
:40:55. > :40:58.but are the amounts enough for what the task entails?
:40:59. > :41:00.with me this week, Mike Gapes, Labour MP for Ilford South,
:41:01. > :41:03.and Iain Duncan Smith, Conservative MP for Chingford
:41:04. > :41:09.Let's start not with council tax, but with business rates,
:41:10. > :41:11.going up on average by 11% in London, we're told
:41:12. > :41:14.Though business organisations are claiming thousands of businesses
:41:15. > :41:17.will be pushed to the edge by increases nearer 50%.
:41:18. > :41:22.Iain Duncan Smith, what would you do?
:41:23. > :41:25.Would you do anything more than what has been proposed so far?
:41:26. > :41:28.Well, I think we're going to have to wait for the Budget,
:41:29. > :41:32.but I think the government has got a strong message that there needs
:41:33. > :41:35.to be more done to at least ameliorative the cliff edge,
:41:36. > :41:37.as it were, this sudden leap up of the rates
:41:38. > :41:42.Bear in mind they are based on property prices,
:41:43. > :41:45.particularly in London, where some of the property prices
:41:46. > :41:47.have gone up quite fast in the last few years.
:41:48. > :41:50.It has meant that some of the businesses were not actually
:41:51. > :41:56.The other thing that concerns many of us on both sides of the fence,
:41:57. > :41:58.the high street has been under the cosh, particularly
:41:59. > :42:04.Just ensuring that the small businesses in there do not suffer
:42:05. > :42:08.an immediate problem with business rates is really important.
:42:09. > :42:13.On one side, the Redbridge area, the rise is lower,
:42:14. > :42:17.but in the Waltham Forest area, it is on average around 13%.
:42:18. > :42:20.Mike Gapes, no secret that premises were going to be revalued and that
:42:21. > :42:23.rents have gone up a lot over the last few years.
:42:24. > :42:28.The problem is that the revaluation should have been after five years,
:42:29. > :42:34.but for political reasons, the coalition put it off,
:42:35. > :42:39.And secondly, as Iain says, property prices have gone up,
:42:40. > :42:46.The average in Redbridge is actually going to be 15%, I think.
:42:47. > :42:51.And in Barking and Dagenham, it is about eight.
:42:52. > :42:55.What would you do that was different?
:42:56. > :43:01.You were not going to get the money from these businesses?
:43:02. > :43:04.I support the Federation Of Small Businesses in London who said
:43:05. > :43:07.that there should be a threshold raise so that it is 15,000
:43:08. > :43:17.At the moment a 12,000 rate applies to the whole of the country.
:43:18. > :43:19.You're nodding your head, you agree with that.
:43:20. > :43:21.You say we have got to wait for the Budget,
:43:22. > :43:24.but you have a chance here to say what you'd like to
:43:25. > :43:28.I have always had concerns about the nature of the structure of
:43:29. > :43:33.It seems too often to be very difficult for the small businesses,
:43:34. > :43:38.In London, we are struggling to keep our high streets alive.
:43:39. > :43:41.My concern is that there needs to be, I am with the federation
:43:42. > :43:44.in the sense that there needs to be some flexibility on this.
:43:45. > :43:46.I'm not quite certain the best way to do this,
:43:47. > :43:49.but it does seem to me, and I hope the Chancellor will take
:43:50. > :43:52.There is definitely a case for relief for London.
:43:53. > :43:55.Not just because I'm a London MP, but I do think London
:43:56. > :43:59.It is the fact that so much money has travelled into London which has
:44:00. > :44:02.forced property prices to rise, rents have gone up,
:44:03. > :44:06.therefore we face a problem beyond our own control.
:44:07. > :44:09.I do not say there are not problems in other cities,
:44:10. > :44:11.but London is peculiar, it is such an international
:44:12. > :44:14.city, it is forced by pressure from outside.
:44:15. > :44:16.Pressure is mounting over the scale of the capital's social
:44:17. > :44:17.care responsibilities, with London Councils,
:44:18. > :44:19.which represents the boroughs, saying the care of thousands
:44:20. > :44:22.of aging and ill Londoners is at risk.
:44:23. > :44:26.It is predicting a funding shortfall of ?600 million at least by 2020.
:44:27. > :44:32.Well, all but four of the capital's authorities are set
:44:33. > :44:39.Dan Freedman's been finding out what difference that might make.
:44:40. > :44:42.It has been an arduous journey for Gerald to be
:44:43. > :44:44.able to move his legs, even like this.
:44:45. > :44:46.In November last year, after struggling for some time
:44:47. > :44:48.with a throat infection, and feeling short of breath,
:44:49. > :44:56.A day later, he was in a coma which lasted for two weeks.
:44:57. > :45:06.Back at home now since Christmas, he is still recovering.
:45:07. > :45:09.Which makes up close to seven weeks in hospital.
:45:10. > :45:17.And that time, especially the time when I was ill,
:45:18. > :45:25.I have lost pretty much, yes, my ability to walk around.
:45:26. > :45:28.Greenwich Council provided free daily care for Gerald at home,
:45:29. > :45:29.including physiotherapy, occupational therapy and help with
:45:30. > :45:34.He has done very well, he was one of our success stories.
:45:35. > :45:41.I went back to the office and I told everyone about how wonderful he had
:45:42. > :45:49.recovered and improved, from no mobility to walking unaided.
:45:50. > :45:51.But to pay for care like this, Greenwich are now putting
:45:52. > :45:54.up their council tax by 4.99%, the maximum amount allowed.
:45:55. > :45:57.The councils generally should be allowed to raise more money,
:45:58. > :46:01.to raise more funding, and to distribute
:46:02. > :46:19.For an average band D taxpayer, it is about an extra pound a week
:46:20. > :46:23.at the moment but the whole problem with this debate is why should it be
:46:24. > :46:26.right that people like Gerald, people from the wartime generation,
:46:27. > :46:29.who have helped create this country, now have to pay for this locally.
:46:30. > :46:44.That has enabled him to get back and have an independent
:46:45. > :46:46.life, but not everybody is in that position.
:46:47. > :46:49.What we see is we know there are people who cannot pay.
:46:50. > :46:52.Across town in Hammersmith, where they are one of only four
:46:53. > :46:54.authorities to freeze council tax this year, their leader says
:46:55. > :46:56.it is all about councils doing more with less.
:46:57. > :47:00.I cannot comment on other councils, but what I can tell you is we have
:47:01. > :47:02.taken an absolute rigourous approach to stripping out waste
:47:03. > :47:10.If you came here three years ago, you would have seen pictures
:47:11. > :47:12.of our predecessors hanging from lampposts with propaganda
:47:13. > :47:14.messages on them, you would have had seven council magazines,
:47:15. > :47:16.talking about how good the local government was.
:47:17. > :47:19.The argument about how to fund social care will no doubt continue.
:47:20. > :47:21.It costs some councils two thirds of their budget
:47:22. > :47:26.and with an ageing population, well, ageing, there are some
:47:27. > :47:29.people who say a truly radical solution is needed.
:47:30. > :47:31.What kind of configuration could we be looking at as a solution?
:47:32. > :47:36.What people have done successfully in other places
:47:37. > :47:41.is group people together, in urban settings, where instead
:47:42. > :47:48.of creating these quasi-villages, you actually use all the amenities
:47:49. > :47:50.in your local town, the hairdresser, the shops,
:47:51. > :47:54.What we are doing is creating that household community
:47:55. > :47:57.Within that community, you can age in place
:47:58. > :47:59.because all the care can be brought to you.
:48:00. > :48:02.He may not feel like it, but Gerald is one of the lucky ones.
:48:03. > :48:05.His social care needs are short-term, he is young,
:48:06. > :48:08.and with a bit of luck he can hopefully return to full health.
:48:09. > :48:14.Most of the people Winnie sees will not be so lucky.
:48:15. > :48:16.As they are living longer, they are living by themselves
:48:17. > :48:25.They have absolutely no-one but someone from the council to go
:48:26. > :48:27.in and help them and if that budget is cut or taken away,
:48:28. > :48:31.Government needs to step up to the plate, really,
:48:32. > :48:37.Care worker Winnie Barrett there, ending Dan's piece.
:48:38. > :48:41.Mike Gapes, how would you fund it, what would you do?
:48:42. > :48:50.There have been attempts in the past, all-party discussions,
:48:51. > :48:56.several years ago, and we need to really deal with this now.
:48:57. > :49:00.The ageing population, in my borough, the over 65s
:49:01. > :49:03.are going to go up by about 30% over a period of ten years.
:49:04. > :49:07.A hypothecated National Insurance, income tax?
:49:08. > :49:15.You could do it through National Insurance, or you could do
:49:16. > :49:18.it by some kind of charge against properties, but that,
:49:19. > :49:27.That was denounced by George Osborne as a death tax, you will remember.
:49:28. > :49:31.Actually, there are people who could be cared for in a very good way,
:49:32. > :49:39.Have we gone far enough in the short term with these
:49:40. > :49:42.I think there is a real problem here which requires
:49:43. > :49:50.For example, the massive scale now of family breakdown puts us
:49:51. > :49:57.A recent study I saw shows that there are fewer people
:49:58. > :50:00.being helped and assisted by families, which in the past might
:50:01. > :50:03.have done a bit more of that, such is the level of family breakdown.
:50:04. > :50:06.Beyond that, you have problems around the way in which the social
:50:07. > :50:09.care in the community is disjointed from that of healthcare.
:50:10. > :50:13.Can we assume on that first point, before we get on to the second,
:50:14. > :50:17.Do you imagine a world where we will reverse that?
:50:18. > :50:21.Over a longer period of time, we have to have a clear look
:50:22. > :50:24.at what is going wrong with family stability in the UK.
:50:25. > :50:26.It is a really big issue, it is right at the top
:50:27. > :50:34.In the short term, the real problem lies between the disconnect
:50:35. > :50:36.between the health services and social care.
:50:37. > :50:44.I see the government has agreed to a further 3% allowance on top
:50:45. > :50:51.They have only just brought that forward?
:50:52. > :50:57.At the end of the day, I suspect that will not be enough.
:50:58. > :51:00.In Oxford, Oxford has brought the healthcare and the social care
:51:01. > :51:08.They have seen a 40% fall in bed blocking.
:51:09. > :51:11.The speed at which we can introduce these reforms in is key?
:51:12. > :51:15.That has to happen, or do you accept that more money has to go in?
:51:16. > :51:17.Ultimately more money does have to go in because we're
:51:18. > :51:25.At Whipps Cross Hospital, they had a CQC report from two years
:51:26. > :51:28.ago which said they were failing and it was a problem
:51:29. > :51:32.because they were part of the London and that was a bit of a disaster.
:51:33. > :51:35.When they have had their recent CQC, one of the issues what was raised
:51:36. > :51:38.in the middle of the first report and again in the second report
:51:39. > :51:40.was that actually they were not discharging patients out
:51:41. > :51:43.of their wards because the administration of that process
:51:44. > :51:47.That was not a problem because they could not get
:51:48. > :51:50.When that is reported, that is reported as a problem
:51:51. > :51:56.Yes, they could have discharged them, but the efficiency of getting
:51:57. > :51:58.that right seemed to be a very low priority.
:51:59. > :52:00.That is one of your local hospitals too, Mike,
:52:01. > :52:03.that is what needs to happen instead of extra taxation?
:52:04. > :52:06.We have got a plan that is coming out at the moment for the so-called
:52:07. > :52:09.stability and transformation plan for the NHS in north-east London.
:52:10. > :52:11.It includes issues of social care, local authorities,
:52:12. > :52:13.as well as hospitals, but the essence of the problem
:52:14. > :52:19.is there is bed blocking, there is delayed discharge.
:52:20. > :52:21.My local authority, Redbridge, is very efficient compared
:52:22. > :52:29.It is lower cost, but we have had ?75 million taken out
:52:30. > :52:32.of our budget over the last six years and we've got to take
:52:33. > :52:38.more than 30 million out in the next five years.
:52:39. > :52:41.Can the local authority tolerate that?
:52:42. > :52:43.I think the key problem here is I would be quite
:52:44. > :52:47.The days are gone when we can have a body that runs social
:52:48. > :52:50.care in the community, and a body that does the healthcare.
:52:51. > :52:52.They should be completely integrated.
:52:53. > :52:54.The money that is saved by the healthcare system,
:52:55. > :52:57.we agree about this, by keeping people out of those beds
:52:58. > :52:59.and moving into communities is so great that it has
:53:00. > :53:03.If you do not have the social workers and the people that
:53:04. > :53:06.can do the assessments, then you have people who are delayed
:53:07. > :53:12.If you have poor GP services, because of reductions,
:53:13. > :53:15.you have people presenting at the accident and emergency,
:53:16. > :53:23.Are you surprised or do you think your government has been
:53:24. > :53:26.caught on the hop by this issue, and whether it has been
:53:27. > :53:28.the publicity around Surrey, wanting to raise its council tax
:53:29. > :53:31.by 15% temporarily or whatever, suddenly there seems to be a lot
:53:32. > :53:38.I do not think this is a sudden issue.
:53:39. > :53:41.I can remember discussing this when Labour was in power.
:53:42. > :53:44.In which case it has been an issue that has been ignored
:53:45. > :53:47.There was an agreement virtually between Norman Lamb and Andy Burnham
:53:48. > :53:55.In terms of the measures and the reforms needed,
:53:56. > :54:00.your government has been slow out of the traps?
:54:01. > :54:02.There is no magic wand you can wave to resolve this.
:54:03. > :54:05.I think the present government is prepared to think very carefully
:54:06. > :54:09.about how best to bring these two areas together.
:54:10. > :54:15.The biggest single effort they could make to make this better
:54:16. > :54:17.is to integrate those services and ensure that from point
:54:18. > :54:22.A to point B is actually as smooth as possible,
:54:23. > :54:24.which allows you to identify where the shortfalls are,
:54:25. > :54:27.A process that may take several years.
:54:28. > :54:32.The Metropolitan Police service has been around for almost 200 years,
:54:33. > :54:37.Now there's a woman in charge, Cressida Dick.
:54:38. > :54:39.What do we need to know about her as she takes
:54:40. > :54:46.The Metropolitan Police recently got a new home,
:54:47. > :54:55.Cressida Dick was this week appointed the new Met Commissioner,
:54:56. > :54:57.the first woman to head the largest police force in the country.
:54:58. > :55:00.It is beyond my wildest dreams, an extraordinary privilege,
:55:01. > :55:10.It is the huge experience she has got within the Met Police service,
:55:11. > :55:12.most recently at the Foreign Office, and also the previous
:55:13. > :55:16.She has experience around security issues, she played a massive role
:55:17. > :55:18.around the Olympics, and celebrating the Diamond Jubilee.
:55:19. > :55:20.One blemish on her record is the death of Jean
:55:21. > :55:27.She was in charge when the Brazilian electrician was mistaken
:55:28. > :55:32.Cressida Dick was cleared of any blame, but the family have
:55:33. > :55:46.In a statement, they had this to stay.
:55:47. > :55:53.Looking ahead, she faces a number of challenges,
:55:54. > :55:56.from London knife crime at a four-year high to the ongoing
:55:57. > :56:00.And she will have to do all of this with fewer officers.
:56:01. > :56:03.I cannot see how we can protect the streets in the same way
:56:04. > :56:06.that we do now with 2,500 to 3,000 less cops.
:56:07. > :56:13.That is a massive number and it will have a massive effect
:56:14. > :56:14.on all the departments within the metropolitan area.
:56:15. > :56:17.With the Met Police facing ?400 million of funding
:56:18. > :56:21.cuts, it is just as well the new commissioner is a qualified
:56:22. > :56:24.accountant who spent the last two years working in Whitehall.
:56:25. > :56:30.Have either of you or both of you met her?
:56:31. > :56:32.I have not met her, but I know Mike has.
:56:33. > :56:34.I met her about two or three years ago.
:56:35. > :56:44.I think she could be a real moderniser in the police in London.
:56:45. > :56:47.It is very important we have got a woman in the most important
:56:48. > :56:53.This is the counterterrorism and the major crime areas that
:56:54. > :57:04.I hope she can do it well, because I really think we need
:57:05. > :57:15.I will be honest with you, I did have slight concerns,
:57:16. > :57:17.when she was appointed, in the sense that I was not sure
:57:18. > :57:20.just how good she would be in operational circumstances but I'm
:57:21. > :57:24.Because you're focusing on what you learned from
:57:25. > :57:32.Not so much the end point of it, but the management of it.
:57:33. > :57:36.We're not going to do the details in the time we've got,
:57:37. > :57:41.I wonder if there is something about that, not just that a woman
:57:42. > :57:44.can rise in this male environment, but to come back from the publicity
:57:45. > :57:46.around something like that, that shooting, it must say
:57:47. > :57:52.I think it is very important that we give her the scope
:57:53. > :58:00.I want to, where possible, cooperate and help.
:58:01. > :58:03.The biggest challenge she faces right now,
:58:04. > :58:07.which the previous commissioner faced, is this whole issue in London
:58:08. > :58:09.of this aggravated street crime, gang warfare that is going on,
:58:10. > :58:11.linked heavily with drug trading, drug addiction.
:58:12. > :58:15.You have got these various national gangs coming in, Somalis moving
:58:16. > :58:26.It is a problem UK wide, not just in London, but dealing
:58:27. > :58:28.with it is not just police operations, councils and local
:58:29. > :58:32.authorities have got to work with the charitable voluntary groups
:58:33. > :58:35.to get the kids out of those gangs, where the police have
:58:36. > :58:37.to go in and decapitate, as they call it,
:58:38. > :58:40.We wrote a report on this at the CSJ.
:58:41. > :58:45.I would love her to make that the priority because the outer
:58:46. > :59:02.Pie Jesu Kamara been a senior partner in a multi-agency approach?
:59:03. > :59:06.We have had a very successful operation in Ilford recently,
:59:07. > :59:11.Local authority and police intelligence were gathered together
:59:12. > :59:14.and a number of very bad people have been taken off the streets.
:59:15. > :59:17.I cannot say more, because there are court cases going on.
:59:18. > :59:22.Nevertheless, as Iain says, to get the evidence,
:59:23. > :59:25.and to make it stack up so that people do not get acquitted,
:59:26. > :59:28.or the case is dismissed, you have really got to spend a lot
:59:29. > :59:34.My fear is that policing, as you commented earlier,
:59:35. > :59:37.has got big financial pressures in London.
:59:38. > :59:46.Outer borough MPs like us often feel, and we will hear
:59:47. > :59:49.from our own police forces, that so much of the attention
:59:50. > :59:52.is Central London, partly because of the terrorism,
:59:53. > :59:56.but everything else, but when the real pressure arrives,
:59:57. > :59:58.people from our communities, the police are dragged down
:59:59. > :00:02.into the centre, and it leaves our communities often quite...
:00:03. > :00:05.They have lots of distractions to deal with.
:00:06. > :00:12.You cannot get guarantees as local MPs?
:00:13. > :00:17.No, my local authority has extra resources from the Mayor for ward
:00:18. > :00:35.-based work. They have lots of
:00:36. > :00:37.distractions to deal with. You cannot get
:00:38. > :00:39.guarantees as local MPs? My local authority has just got
:00:40. > :00:41.extra resources from the mayor The community wants reassurance
:00:42. > :00:44.by seeing, visibly, police officers. Yes, the biggest problem is that
:00:45. > :00:51.people think the outer boroughs has nothing
:00:52. > :00:53.like what is going on in inner London, but areas of my
:00:54. > :00:55.local authority have I take my hat off to them
:00:56. > :00:59.for dealing with them, Not every local authority is locked
:01:00. > :01:03.to the idea of getting rid of gang And now for the rest
:01:04. > :01:08.of the political news in 60 Seconds. Guards on Southern trains walked out
:01:09. > :01:11.on strike again this week Talks between the RMT Union
:01:12. > :01:15.and Southern broke down last week The row centres on Southern's
:01:16. > :01:18.plans to make conductors on board supervisors,
:01:19. > :01:20.giving drivers control The main approach tunnel
:01:21. > :01:23.at Heathrow airport was blocked by protesters objecting to plans
:01:24. > :01:25.for a third runway. Three cars were parked
:01:26. > :01:27.across the road with protesters chaining themselves to one
:01:28. > :01:30.of the vehicles. The tunnel was shut
:01:31. > :01:32.for more than two hours French presidential candidate
:01:33. > :01:38.Emmanuel Macron has said he would like UK banks and workers
:01:39. > :01:41.to relocate to his country following Speaking in Downing Street,
:01:42. > :01:47.the centrist politician called his own country
:01:48. > :01:52.a very attractive space. Mr Macron called for a fair
:01:53. > :02:06.execution of Brexit. Iain Duncan Smith saying
:02:07. > :02:08.during that that you bumped He is going to take all our bankers
:02:09. > :02:12.and set up in Paris. To earn a pound in Paris,
:02:13. > :02:17.to actually hold a pound that you have earned,
:02:18. > :02:19.you have to earn about six pounds, whereas in the UK, to earn a pound,
:02:20. > :02:24.you have to earn about ?2.50. Some of the banks are already
:02:25. > :02:27.indicating they will move. There are moves all the time,
:02:28. > :02:30.but the head of financial services in Germany and the finance minister
:02:31. > :02:33.of Germany said that we need London to be a global success after Brexit,
:02:34. > :02:36.because London is our global marketplace, it is not coming
:02:37. > :02:39.to Frankfurt or Paris, it will go to New York
:02:40. > :02:44.if it leaves anywhere. No Brexit question
:02:45. > :02:46.for you, Mike Gapes. A question about a fellow
:02:47. > :02:48.London Labour MP, Jeremy Corbyn. I am delighted that
:02:49. > :03:03.Gareth Snell was elected. The truth is, Labour should not be
:03:04. > :03:08.losing by-elections under Iain Duncan Smith, were you leader
:03:09. > :03:15.of the Conservative party, or Prime Minister, would you go
:03:16. > :03:18.to the country? Here is the reason, the public
:03:19. > :03:23.is tired of the idea of politicians jumping at the key moment
:03:24. > :03:29.when they think they are ahead. What she has to do is
:03:30. > :03:32.deliver the Brexit point, and after that she can go
:03:33. > :03:54.to the country when she has Welcome back. Article 50, which
:03:55. > :03:58.triggers the beginning of Britain leaving the European Union and start
:03:59. > :04:04.negotiations, is winding its way through the Lords in this coming
:04:05. > :04:10.week. Tarzan has made an intervention, let's just see the
:04:11. > :04:14.headline from the Mail on Sunday. Lord Heseltine, Michael Heseltine,
:04:15. > :04:18.my fightback starts here, he is going to defy Theresa May. I divide
:04:19. > :04:22.one Prime Minister over the poll tax, I'm ready to defy this one in
:04:23. > :04:28.the Lords over Brexit. There we go, that's going to happen this week. We
:04:29. > :04:33.will see how far he gets. I don't think he will get very far, I don't
:04:34. > :04:37.think Loyalist Tory MPs and Brexiteers are quaking in their
:04:38. > :04:41.boots at the prospect of a rebellion led by Michael Heseltine. I sense
:04:42. > :04:45.that many Tory MPs are already moving on to the next question about
:04:46. > :04:50.Brexit, and the discussion over how much it will cost us to come out.
:04:51. > :04:57.The fact they are already debating that suggests to me they feel things
:04:58. > :05:01.will go fairly smoothly in terms of the legislation. When I spoke to the
:05:02. > :05:05.Labour leader in the Lords last week on the daily politics, she said she
:05:06. > :05:13.was going to push hard for the kind of amendments Lord has all-time is
:05:14. > :05:18.talking about and they would bring that back to the Commons. But if the
:05:19. > :05:21.Commons pinged it back to the Lords with the amendments taken out, she
:05:22. > :05:29.made it clear that was the end of it. Is that right? That's about
:05:30. > :05:32.right. This is probably really a large destruction. There will be to
:05:33. > :05:39.micro issues that come up in the Lords, one is on the future of EU
:05:40. > :05:43.nationals, that could be voted on as soon as this Wednesday, and then the
:05:44. > :05:47.main vote in the Lords on a week on Tuesday, when there is this question
:05:48. > :05:52.of what sort of vote will MPs and peers get at the end of the Brexit
:05:53. > :05:55.process and that is what has all-time is talking about. He wants
:05:56. > :06:01.to make sure there are guarantees in place. The kind of things peers are
:06:02. > :06:03.looking for are pretty moderate and the Government have hinted they
:06:04. > :06:09.could deliver on both of them already. But they are still not
:06:10. > :06:14.prepared... Amber Rudd said they were not prepared... They may say
:06:15. > :06:20.yes we are going to do that but they won't allow whatever that is to be
:06:21. > :06:24.enshrined in the legislation. The question is whether we think this is
:06:25. > :06:27.dancing on the head of a pin. The Government have already promised
:06:28. > :06:30.something in the House of Commons, but will they write it down, I don't
:06:31. > :06:34.think that's the biggest problem in the world. In a sense this is a
:06:35. > :06:41.great magicians trick by Theresa May because it is not the most important
:06:42. > :06:44.thing. The most important thing in Brexit is going on in those
:06:45. > :06:47.committees behind closed doors when they are trying to work out what the
:06:48. > :06:51.next migration system is for Britain and there are some interesting,
:06:52. > :06:56.indeed toxic proposals, but at the moment Downing Street are happy to
:06:57. > :07:02.let us talk about the constitutional propriety of what MPs are doing over
:07:03. > :07:06.the next eight days. It seems to me the irony is that if we had a second
:07:07. > :07:11.chamber that can claim some kind of democratic legitimacy, which the one
:07:12. > :07:15.we have cannot, it would be able to cause the Government more trouble on
:07:16. > :07:19.this, it would be more robust. Absolutely. I saw the interview we
:07:20. > :07:28.did with the Labour Leader of the Lords, they are very conscious, of
:07:29. > :07:32.the fact they are not elected and have limited powers. She was clear
:07:33. > :07:36.to you they would not impede the timetable for triggering Article 50
:07:37. > :07:41.so we might get a bit of theatre, Michael Heseltine might deliver a
:07:42. > :07:46.brilliant speech. It is interesting that Euroscepticism gun under
:07:47. > :07:52.Margaret Thatcher in the Tory party but two offer senior ministers Ken
:07:53. > :07:55.Clarke and Michael Heseltine are the most prominent opponents now but
:07:56. > :07:59.they will change nothing at this point. She will have the space to
:08:00. > :08:04.trigger Article 50 within her timetable. Let's move on. Let me
:08:05. > :08:10.show you a picture tweeted by Nigel Farage.
:08:11. > :08:17.That is Nigel Farage and a small group of people having dinner, and
:08:18. > :08:21.within that small group of people is the president of the United States,
:08:22. > :08:27.and it was taken in the last couple of days. This would suggest that if
:08:28. > :08:31.he can command that amount of the President's time in a small group of
:08:32. > :08:37.people, then he's actually rather close to the president. Make no
:08:38. > :08:40.mistake about it, Nigel Farage is now to and fro Washington more
:08:41. > :08:47.regularly than perhaps he is here. Hopefully that LBC programme is
:08:48. > :08:53.recorded over in the state. He's not only close to the president but to a
:08:54. > :08:56.series of people within the administration. That relationship
:08:57. > :09:01.there is a remarkable one and one to keep an eye on. Will the main
:09:02. > :09:07.government be tempted to tap into that relationship at any time or is
:09:08. > :09:14.it just seething with anger? You can feel a ripple of discontentment over
:09:15. > :09:18.this. We are in the middle of negotiating the state visit and the
:09:19. > :09:22.sort of pomp and circumstance and what kind of greeting Britain should
:09:23. > :09:26.give Donald Trump when he comes over later in the year. There is a great
:09:27. > :09:30.deal of neurotic thought going into what that should look like, but one
:09:31. > :09:33.of the most interesting things about our relationship with Donald Trump
:09:34. > :09:37.is that there is a nervousness among some Cabinet ministers that we are
:09:38. > :09:42.being seen to go too far, too fast with the prospect of a trade deal.
:09:43. > :09:46.Even amongst some Brexiteer cabinet ministers, they worry we won't get a
:09:47. > :09:49.very good trade deal with the US and we are tolerably placing a lot of
:09:50. > :09:54.stalled by it. When we see the kind of deal they want to pitch with us
:09:55. > :10:02.there might be some pulling back and that could be an awkward moment in
:10:03. > :10:05.terms of our relationship, and no doubt Nigel at that term -- at that
:10:06. > :10:11.point will accuse the UK of doing the dirty on Donald Trump. If there
:10:12. > :10:18.was a deal, would they get it through the House of Commons? Nigel
:10:19. > :10:23.Farage is having dinner with the president, not bad as a kind of
:10:24. > :10:27.lifestyle but he's politically rootless, he won't be an MEP much
:10:28. > :10:31.longer so if you look at where is his political base to build on this
:10:32. > :10:35.great time he's having, there is one. Given that there is one I think
:10:36. > :10:40.he's just having a great time and it isn't much more significant than
:10:41. > :10:51.that. No? There's a lot to be said for having a great time. You are
:10:52. > :10:57.having a great time. Let's just look, because of the dominance of
:10:58. > :11:03.the Government we kind of it nor there are problems piling up, only
:11:04. > :11:08.what, ten days with the Budget to go, piling up for Mrs May and her
:11:09. > :11:13.government. The business rates which has alarmed a lot of Tories, this
:11:14. > :11:18.disability cuts which are really a serious problem for the Government,
:11:19. > :11:22.and the desperate need for more money for social care. There are
:11:23. > :11:26.other issues, there are problems there and they involve spending
:11:27. > :11:30.money. Absolutely and some people argue Theresa May has only one
:11:31. > :11:35.Monday and that is to deliver Brexit but it is impossible as a Prime
:11:36. > :11:41.Minister to ignore everything else. And she doesn't want to either. The
:11:42. > :11:44.bubbling issue of social care and the NHS is the biggest single
:11:45. > :11:48.problem for her in the weeks and months ahead, she has got to come up
:11:49. > :11:53.with something. And Mr Hammond will have to loosen his belt a little
:11:54. > :11:57.bit. I think he will in relation to the NHS, he didn't mention it in the
:11:58. > :12:01.Autumn Statement, which was remarkable, and he cannot get away
:12:02. > :12:05.with not mentioning it this time. If he mentions it, it has to be in a
:12:06. > :12:09.positive context in some way or another and it is one example of
:12:10. > :12:14.many. She is both strong because she is so far ahead in the opinion
:12:15. > :12:18.polls, but this in tray is one of the most daunting a Prime Minister
:12:19. > :12:24.has faced in recent times I think. Here is what will happen on Budget
:12:25. > :12:31.day, money will be more money, magically found down the back of the
:12:32. > :12:35.Treasury sofa. The projections are that he has wiggle room of about 12
:12:36. > :12:39.billion. But look at the bills, rebels involved in business rates
:12:40. > :12:45.suggest the Chancellor will have to throw up ?2 billion at that problem.
:12:46. > :12:48.3.7 billion is the potential cost of this judgment about disability
:12:49. > :12:53.benefits. The Government will try to find different ways of satisfying it
:12:54. > :12:58.but who knows. It will not popular. I'm not sure they will throw money
:12:59. > :13:00.at the NHS, they want an interim settlement on social care which will
:13:01. > :13:07.alleviate pressure on the NHS but they feel... That's another couple
:13:08. > :13:11.of billion by the way. They feel in the Treasury that the NHS has not
:13:12. > :13:18.delivered on what Simon Stevens promised them. But here is the
:13:19. > :13:22.bigger problem for Philip Hammond, he has two This year and he thinks
:13:23. > :13:25.the second one in the autumn is more important because that is when
:13:26. > :13:27.people will feel the cost living squeeze.
:13:28. > :13:31.The Daily Politics is back at noon on BBC Two tomorrow.
:13:32. > :13:33.We'll be back here at the same time next week.
:13:34. > :13:40.Remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.