:00:35. > :00:40.It's Sunday Morning and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:41. > :00:43.The Chancellor says that to embark on a spending spree
:00:44. > :00:45.in Wednesday's Budget would be "reckless".
:00:46. > :00:48.But will there be more money for social care and to ease
:00:49. > :00:54.The UK terror threat is currently severe,
:00:55. > :00:56.but where is that threat coming from?
:00:57. > :00:59.We have the detailed picture from a vast new study of every
:01:00. > :01:04.Islamist related terrorist offence committed over the last two decades.
:01:05. > :01:10.What can we learn from these offences to thwart future attacks?
:01:11. > :01:12.The government was defeated in the Lords on its
:01:13. > :01:16.We'll ask the Leader of the House of Commons what he'll do if peers
:01:17. > :01:22.In London this week a shake-up in education funding could lead
:01:23. > :01:25.to 70% of schools losing money in the capital.
:01:26. > :01:39.All that coming up in the next hour and a quarter.
:01:40. > :01:42.Now, some of you might have read that intruders managed
:01:43. > :01:45.to get into the BBC news studios this weekend.
:01:46. > :01:47.Well three of them appear not to have been ejected yet,
:01:48. > :01:51.so we might as well make use of them as our political panel.
:01:52. > :01:53.Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards.
:01:54. > :01:58.They'll be tweeting throughout the programme.
:01:59. > :02:04.Philip Hammond will deliver his second financial
:02:05. > :02:06.statement as Chancellor and the last Spring Budget
:02:07. > :02:09.for a while at least - they are moving to the Autumn
:02:10. > :02:13.There's been pressure on him to find more money
:02:14. > :02:15.for the Health Service, social care, schools funding,
:02:16. > :02:20.But this morning the Chancellor insisted that he will not be
:02:21. > :02:23.using the proceeds of better than expected tax receipts to embark
:02:24. > :02:34.What is being speculated on is whether we might not have borrowed
:02:35. > :02:41.quite as much as we were forecast to borrow. You will see the numbers on
:02:42. > :02:45.Wednesday. But if your bank increases your credit card limit, I
:02:46. > :02:48.do not think you feel obliged to go out and spent every last penny of it
:02:49. > :02:59.He is moving the budget to the autumn, he told us that in his
:03:00. > :03:05.statement, so maybe on Wednesday it will be like a spring statement
:03:06. > :03:09.rather than a full-blown budget. Tinkering pre-Brexit and in November
:03:10. > :03:13.he will have a more clear idea of the impact of Brexit and I suspect
:03:14. > :03:18.that will be the bigger event than this one. It looks as if there will
:03:19. > :03:23.be a bit of money here and there, small amounts, not enough in my
:03:24. > :03:29.view, for social care and so on, possibly a review of social care
:03:30. > :03:33.policy. A familiar device which rarely get anywhere. I think he has
:03:34. > :03:37.got a bit more space to do more if he wanted to do now because of the
:03:38. > :03:42.politics. They are miles ahead in the polls, so he could do more, but
:03:43. > :03:49.it is not in his character, he is cautious. So he keeps his powder dry
:03:50. > :03:56.on most things, he does some things, but he keeps it dry until November.
:03:57. > :03:59.But also, as Steve says, he will know just how strong the economy has
:04:00. > :04:03.been this year by November and whether he needs to do some pump
:04:04. > :04:10.priming or whether everything is fine. He said it is too early to
:04:11. > :04:13.make those sorts of judgments now. What is striking is the amount of
:04:14. > :04:18.concern there is an Number ten and in the Treasury about the tone of
:04:19. > :04:22.this budget, so less about the actual figures and more about what
:04:23. > :04:27.message this is sending out to the rest of the world. I think some
:04:28. > :04:32.senior MPs are calling it a kind of treading water budget and Phil
:04:33. > :04:35.Hammond has got quite a difficult act to perform because he is
:04:36. > :04:42.instinctively rather cautious, or very cautious, and instinctively
:04:43. > :04:46.slightly gloomy about Brexit. He wanted to remain. But he does not
:04:47. > :04:52.want this budget to sounded downbeat and he will be mauled if he makes it
:04:53. > :04:56.sound downbeat, so he has to inject a little bit of optimism and we may
:04:57. > :05:01.see that in the infrastructure spending plans. He has got some room
:05:02. > :05:05.to manoeuvre. The deficit by the financial year ending in April we
:05:06. > :05:09.now know will not be as big as the OBR told us only three and a half
:05:10. > :05:14.months ago that it would be. They added 12 billion on and they may
:05:15. > :05:17.take most of that off again. He is under pressure from his own side to
:05:18. > :05:23.do something on social care and business rates and I bet some Tory
:05:24. > :05:28.backbenchers would not mind a little bit more money for the NHS as well.
:05:29. > :05:34.He is on a huge pressure to do a whole lot on a whole load, not just
:05:35. > :05:40.social care. There is also how on earth do we pay for so many old
:05:41. > :05:46.people? There is the NHS, defence spending, everything. But his words
:05:47. > :05:50.this morning, which is I am not going to spend potentially an extra
:05:51. > :05:55.30 billion I might have by 2020 because of improved economic growth
:05:56. > :06:02.was interesting. You need to hold something back because Brexit might
:06:03. > :06:08.go back and he was a bit of a remain campaign person. If you think
:06:09. > :06:12.Britain is going to curl up into a corner and hideaway licking its
:06:13. > :06:16.wounds, you have got another think coming. That 30 billion he might
:06:17. > :06:22.have extra in his pocket could be worth deploying on building up
:06:23. > :06:28.Britain with huge tax cuts in case there is no deal, a war chest if you
:06:29. > :06:32.like. He will have more than 27 billion. He may decide 27 billion in
:06:33. > :06:37.the statement, the margin by which he tries to get the structural
:06:38. > :06:42.deficit down, he will still have 27 billion. If the receipts are better
:06:43. > :06:49.than they are forecast, some people are saying he will have a war chest
:06:50. > :06:55.of 60 billion. That money, as Mr Osborne found out, can disappear. He
:06:56. > :07:00.clearly is planning not to go on a spending spree this Wednesday. It is
:07:01. > :07:05.interesting in the FTB and the day, David Laws who was chief Secretary
:07:06. > :07:09.for five minutes, was also enthusiastic about the original
:07:10. > :07:13.George Osborne austerity programme and he said, we have reached the
:07:14. > :07:16.limits to what is socially possible with this and a consensus is
:07:17. > :07:21.beginning to emerge that he will have to spend more money than he
:07:22. > :07:27.plans to this Wednesday. This is not just from Labour MPs, but from a lot
:07:28. > :07:30.of Conservative MPs as well. People will wonder when this austerity will
:07:31. > :07:33.end because it seems to be going on for ever. We will have more on the
:07:34. > :07:36.budget later in the programme. Now, the government was defeated
:07:37. > :07:39.last week in the House of Lords. Peers amended the bill that
:07:40. > :07:42.will allow Theresa May to trigger Brexit to guarantee the rights of EU
:07:43. > :07:44.nationals currently in the UK. The government says it will remove
:07:45. > :07:47.the amendment when the bill returns But today a report from
:07:48. > :07:53.the Common's Brexit committee also calls for the Government to make
:07:54. > :07:57.a unilateral decision to safeguard the rights of EU
:07:58. > :08:01.nationals living here. If the worst happened,
:08:02. > :08:04.are we actually going to say to 3 million Europeans here,
:08:05. > :08:08.who are nurses, doctors, serving us tea and coffee in restaurants,
:08:09. > :08:12.giving lectures at Leeds University, picking and processing vegetables,
:08:13. > :08:15."Right, off you go"? No, of course we are not
:08:16. > :08:17.going to say that. So, why not end the
:08:18. > :08:19.uncertainty for them now? will help to create the climate
:08:20. > :08:24.which will ensure everyone gets to say because that's
:08:25. > :08:34.what all of us want. That is why we have unanimously
:08:35. > :08:40.agreed this recommendation that the government should make unilateral
:08:41. > :08:44.decision to say to EU citizens here, yes, you can stay, because we think
:08:45. > :08:44.that is the right and fair thing to do.
:08:45. > :08:48.And we're joined now from Buckinghamshire by the leader
:08:49. > :08:51.of the House of Commons, David Lidington.
:08:52. > :08:57.Welcome back to the programme. The House of Lords has amended the
:08:58. > :09:01.Article 50 bill to allow the unilateral acceptance of EU
:09:02. > :09:04.nationals' right to remain in the UK. Is it still the government was
:09:05. > :09:11.my intention to remove that amendment in the comments? We have
:09:12. > :09:14.always been clear that we think this bill is very straightforward, it
:09:15. > :09:20.does nothing else except give the Prime Minister the authority that
:09:21. > :09:24.the courts insist upon to start the Article 50 process of negotiating
:09:25. > :09:31.with the other 27 EU countries. On the particular issue of EU citizens
:09:32. > :09:38.here and British citizens overseas, the PM did suggest that the December
:09:39. > :09:44.European summit last year that we do a pre-negotiation agreement on this.
:09:45. > :09:48.That was not acceptable to all of the other 27 because they took the
:09:49. > :09:52.view that you cannot have any kind of negotiation and to Article 50 has
:09:53. > :09:56.been triggered. That is where we are. I hope with goodwill and
:09:57. > :10:01.national self interest on all sides we can tackle this is right that the
:10:02. > :10:05.start of those negotiations. But it is not just the Lords. We have now
:10:06. > :10:11.got the cross-party Commons Brexit committee saying you should now make
:10:12. > :10:19.the unilateral decision to safeguard the rights of EU nationals in the
:10:20. > :10:24.UK. Even Michael go, Peter Lilley, John Whittington, agree. So why are
:10:25. > :10:29.you so stubborn on this issue? I think this is a complex issue that
:10:30. > :10:34.goes beyond the rise of presidents, but about things like the rights of
:10:35. > :10:42.access to health care, to pension ratings and benefits and so on...
:10:43. > :10:47.But you could settle back. It is also, Andrew, because you have got
:10:48. > :10:50.to look at it from the point of view of the British citizens, well over 1
:10:51. > :10:55.million living elsewhere in Europe. If we make the unilateral gesture,
:10:56. > :10:59.it might make us feel good for Britain and it would help in the
:11:00. > :11:05.short term those EU citizens who are here, but you have got those British
:11:06. > :11:10.citizens overseas who would then be potential bargaining chips in the
:11:11. > :11:15.hands of any of the 27 other governments. We do not know who will
:11:16. > :11:20.be in office during the negotiations and they may have completely
:11:21. > :11:23.extraneous reasons to hold up the agreement on the rights of British
:11:24. > :11:29.citizens. The sensible way to deal with this is 28 mature democracies
:11:30. > :11:32.getting around the table starting the negotiations and to agree to
:11:33. > :11:39.something that is fair to all sides and is reciprocal. What countries
:11:40. > :11:45.might take on UK nationals living in the EU? What countries are you
:11:46. > :11:50.frightened of? The one thing that I know from my own experience in the
:11:51. > :11:55.past of being involved in European negotiations is that issues come up
:11:56. > :12:02.that maybe have nothing to do with British nationals, but another issue
:12:03. > :12:06.that matters a huge amount to a particular government, it may not be
:12:07. > :12:11.a government yet in office, and they decide we can get something out of
:12:12. > :12:15.this, so let's hold up the agreement on British citizens until the
:12:16. > :12:21.British move in the direction we want on issue X. I hope it does not
:12:22. > :12:26.come to that. I think the messages I have had from EU ambassadors in
:12:27. > :12:30.London and from those it my former Europe colleague ministers is that
:12:31. > :12:34.we want this to be a done deal as quickly as possible. That is the
:12:35. > :12:40.British Government's very clear intention. We hope that we can get a
:12:41. > :12:44.reciprocal deal agreed before the Article 50 process. That was not
:12:45. > :12:50.possible. I understand that, you have said that already. But even if
:12:51. > :12:54.there is no reciprocal deal being done, is it really credible that EU
:12:55. > :13:00.nationals already here would lose their right to live and work and
:13:01. > :13:08.face deportation? You know that is not credible, that will not happen.
:13:09. > :13:13.We have already under our own system law whereby some people who have
:13:14. > :13:18.been lawfully resident and working here for five years can apply for
:13:19. > :13:22.permanent residency, but it is not just about residents. It is about
:13:23. > :13:26.whether residency carries with it certain rights of access to health
:13:27. > :13:33.care. I understand that, but have made this point. But the point is
:13:34. > :13:39.the right to live and work here that worries them at the moment. The Home
:13:40. > :13:44.Secretary has said there can be no change in their status without a
:13:45. > :13:47.vote in parliament. Could you ever imagine the British Parliament
:13:48. > :13:53.voting to remove their right to live and work here? I think the British
:13:54. > :14:01.Parliament will want to be very fair to EU citizens, as Hilary Benn and
:14:02. > :14:05.others rightly say they have been overwhelmingly been here working
:14:06. > :14:08.hard and paying taxes and contributing to our society. They
:14:09. > :14:14.were equally want to make sure there is a fair deal for our own citizens,
:14:15. > :14:17.more than a million, elsewhere in Europe. You cannot disentangle the
:14:18. > :14:23.issue of residence from those things that go with residents. Is the
:14:24. > :14:27.Article 50 timetabled to be triggered before the end of this
:14:28. > :14:32.month, is it threatened by these amendments in the Lords? I sincerely
:14:33. > :14:37.hope not because the House of Lords is a perfectly respectable
:14:38. > :14:41.constitutional role to look again at bills sent up by the House of
:14:42. > :14:48.commons. But they also have understood traditionally that as an
:14:49. > :14:51.unelected house they have to give primacy to the elected Commons at
:14:52. > :14:57.the end of the day. In this case it is not just the elected Commons that
:14:58. > :15:06.sent the bill to be amended, but the referendum that lies behind that. It
:15:07. > :15:07.is not possible? We are confident we can get Article 50 triggered by the
:15:08. > :15:16.end of the month. One of the other Lords amendments
:15:17. > :15:19.will be to have a meaningful vote on the Brexit deal when it is done at
:15:20. > :15:24.the end of the process, what is your view on that? What would you
:15:25. > :15:30.understand by a meaningful vote? The Government has already said there is
:15:31. > :15:35.going to be a meaningful vote at the end of the process. What do you mean
:15:36. > :15:39.by a meaningful vote? The parliament will get the opportunity to vote on
:15:40. > :15:42.the deal before it finishes the EU level process of going to
:15:43. > :15:49.consideration by the European Parliament. Parliament will be given
:15:50. > :15:55.a choice, as I understand, for either a vote for the deal you have
:15:56. > :16:01.negotiated or we leave on WTO rules and crash out anyway, is that what
:16:02. > :16:05.you mean by a meaningful choice? Parliament will get the choice to
:16:06. > :16:09.vote on the deal, but I think you have put your finger on the problem
:16:10. > :16:17.with trying to write something into the bill because any idea that the
:16:18. > :16:24.PM's freedom to negotiate is limited, any idea that if the EU 27
:16:25. > :16:27.were to play hardball, that somehow that means parliament would take
:16:28. > :16:30.fright, reverse the referendum verdict and set aside the views of
:16:31. > :16:35.the British people, that would almost guarantee that it would be
:16:36. > :16:41.much more difficult to get the sort of ambitious mutually beneficial
:16:42. > :16:45.deal for us and the EU 27. Your idea of a meaningful vote in parliament
:16:46. > :16:51.is the choices either to vote to accept this deal or we leave anyway,
:16:52. > :16:58.that is your idea of a meaningful vote. The Article 50 process is
:16:59. > :17:02.straightforward. There is the position of both parties in the
:17:03. > :17:11.recent Supreme Court case that the Article 50 process once triggered is
:17:12. > :17:16.irrevocable. That is in the EU Treaty already but we are saying
:17:17. > :17:23.very clearly that Parliament will get that right to debate and vote. I
:17:24. > :17:27.think the problem with what some in the House of Lords are proposing, I
:17:28. > :17:32.hope it is not a majority, is that the amendments they would seek to
:17:33. > :17:35.insert would tie the Prime Minister's hands, limit and
:17:36. > :17:38.negotiating freedom and put her in a more difficult position to negotiate
:17:39. > :17:43.on behalf of this country than should be the case. One year ago you
:17:44. > :17:48.said it could take six to eight years to agree a free-trade deal
:17:49. > :17:53.with the EU. Now you think you can do it in two, what's changed your
:17:54. > :18:07.mind? There is a very strong passionate supporter of Remain, as
:18:08. > :18:11.you know. I hope very much we are able to conclude not just the terms
:18:12. > :18:17.of the exit deal but the agreement that we are seeking on the long-term
:18:18. > :18:23.trade relationship... I understand that, but I'm trying to work out,
:18:24. > :18:28.what makes you think you can do it in two years when only a year ago
:18:29. > :18:33.you said it would take up to wait? The referendum clearly makes a big
:18:34. > :18:40.difference, and I think that there is an understanding amongst real the
:18:41. > :18:46.other 27 governments now that it is in everybody's interests to sort
:18:47. > :18:51.this shared challenge out of negotiating a new relationship
:18:52. > :18:54.between the EU 27 and the UK because European countries, those in and
:18:55. > :19:03.those who will be out of the EU, share the need to face up to massive
:19:04. > :19:06.challenges like terrorism and technological change. All of that
:19:07. > :19:09.was pretty obvious one year ago but we will see what happens. Thank you,
:19:10. > :19:11.David Lidington. Now, the Sunday Politics has had
:19:12. > :19:14.sight of a major new report The thousand-page study,
:19:15. > :19:19.which researchers say is the most comprehensive ever produced,
:19:20. > :19:25.analyses all 269 Islamist telated terrorist offences
:19:26. > :19:28.committed between 1998-2015. Most planned attacks were,
:19:29. > :19:30.thankfully, thwarted, but what can we learn
:19:31. > :19:32.from those offences? For the police and the intelligence
:19:33. > :19:41.agencies to fight terror, Researchers at the security think
:19:42. > :19:48.tank The Henry Jackson Society gave us early access to their huge
:19:49. > :19:58.new report which analyses every Islamism related attack
:19:59. > :20:01.and prosecution in the UK since 1998, that's 269 cases
:20:02. > :20:04.involving 253 perpetrators. With issues as sensitive
:20:05. > :20:07.as counterterrorism and counter radicalisation, it is really
:20:08. > :20:09.important to have an evidence base from which you draw
:20:10. > :20:11.policy and policing, This isn't my opinion,
:20:12. > :20:16.this the facts. This chart shows the number
:20:17. > :20:18.of cases each year combined with a small number
:20:19. > :20:23.of successful suicide attacks. Notice the peak in the middle
:20:24. > :20:25.of the last decade around the time of the 7/7 bombings
:20:26. > :20:29.in London in 2005. Offences tailed off,
:20:30. > :20:32.before rising again from 2010, when a three-year period accounted
:20:33. > :20:35.for a third of all the terrorism cases since the researchers
:20:36. > :20:40.started counting. What we are seeing is a combination
:20:41. > :20:44.of both more offending, in terms of the threat increasing,
:20:45. > :20:47.we know that from the security services and police statements,
:20:48. > :20:50.but also I believe we are getting more efficient in terms
:20:51. > :20:52.of our policing and we are actually A third of people were found to have
:20:53. > :21:01.facilitated terrorism, that's providing encouragement,
:21:02. > :21:04.documents, money. About 18% of people
:21:05. > :21:07.were aspirational terrorists, 12% of convictions were related
:21:08. > :21:13.to travel, to training And 37% of people were convicted
:21:14. > :21:22.of planning attacks, although the methods have
:21:23. > :21:26.changed over time. Five or six years ago,
:21:27. > :21:30.we saw lots of people planning or attempting pipe bombs and most
:21:31. > :21:32.of the time they had Inspire magazine in their possession,
:21:33. > :21:35.that's a magazine, an Al-Qaeda English-language online
:21:36. > :21:37.magazine that had specific More recently we have seen
:21:38. > :21:42.Islamic State encouraging people to engage in lower tech knife
:21:43. > :21:45.beheading, stabbings attacks and I think that's why we have
:21:46. > :21:48.seen that more recently. Shasta Khan plotted with her
:21:49. > :21:52.husband to bomb the Jewish In 2012 she received
:21:53. > :21:57.an eight-year prison sentence. She's one of an increasing
:21:58. > :22:02.number of women convicted of an Islamism related offence
:22:03. > :22:04.although it is still overwhelmingly a crime carried out
:22:05. > :22:08.by men in their 20s. Despite fears of foreign terrorists,
:22:09. > :22:10.a report says the vast Most have their home in London,
:22:11. > :22:19.around 43% of them. 18% lived in the West Midlands,
:22:20. > :22:22.particularly in Birmingham, and the north-west is another
:22:23. > :22:24.hotspot with around 10% Richard Dart lived in Weymouth
:22:25. > :22:31.and tried to attend a terrorist He was a convert to Islam, as were
:22:32. > :22:40.60% of the people in this report. He was a convert to Islam, as were
:22:41. > :22:44.16% of the people in this report. Like the majority of cases,
:22:45. > :22:46.he had a family, network. What's particularly interesting
:22:47. > :22:49.is how different each story is in many ways,
:22:50. > :22:52.but then within those differences So your angry young men,
:22:53. > :23:01.in the one sense inspired to travel, seek training and combat experience
:23:02. > :23:07.abroad, and then the older, recruiter father-figure types,
:23:08. > :23:09.the fundraising facilitator types. There are types within
:23:10. > :23:12.this terrorism picture, but the range of backgrounds
:23:13. > :23:18.and experiences is huge. And three quarters of those
:23:19. > :23:20.convicted of Islamist terrorism were on the radar of the authorities
:23:21. > :23:24.because they had a previous criminal record, they had
:23:25. > :23:27.made their extremism public, or because MI5 had them
:23:28. > :23:33.under surveillance. To discuss the findings of this
:23:34. > :23:40.report are the former Security Minister Pauline Neville-Jones,
:23:41. > :23:42.Talha Ahmad from the Muslim Council of Britain, and Adam Deen
:23:43. > :23:57.from the anti-extremist group The report finds the most segregated
:23:58. > :24:03.Muslim community is, the more likely it is to incubate Islamist
:24:04. > :24:08.terrorists, what is the MCB doing to encourage more integrated
:24:09. > :24:12.communities? Its track record on calling for reaching out to the
:24:13. > :24:16.wider society and having a more integrated and cohesive society I
:24:17. > :24:21.think is a pretty strong one, so one thing we are doing for example very
:24:22. > :24:26.recently I've seen we had this visit my mosque initiative, the idea was
:24:27. > :24:28.that mosques become open to inviting people of other faiths and their
:24:29. > :24:34.neighbours to come so we were encouraged to see so many
:24:35. > :24:41.participating. It is one step forward. Is it a good thing or a bad
:24:42. > :24:46.thing that in a number of Muslim communities, the Muslim population
:24:47. > :24:49.is over 60% of the community? I personally and the council would
:24:50. > :24:52.prefer to have more mixed communities but one of the reason
:24:53. > :24:57.they are heavily concentrated is not so much because they prefer to but
:24:58. > :25:02.often because the socio- economic reality forces them to. But you
:25:03. > :25:06.would like to see less segregation? Absolutely, we would prefer more
:25:07. > :25:11.diverse communities around the country. What is your reaction to
:25:12. > :25:15.that? Will need more diverse communities but one of the
:25:16. > :25:19.challenges we have right now with certain organisations is this
:25:20. > :25:23.pushback against the Government, with its attempts to help young
:25:24. > :25:28.Muslims not go down this journey of extremism. One of those things is
:25:29. > :25:31.the Prevent strategy and we often hear organisations like the MCB
:25:32. > :25:37.attacking the strategy which is counter-productive. What do you say
:25:38. > :25:42.to that? Do we support the Government have initiatives to
:25:43. > :25:47.counteract terrorism, of course we do. Do you support the Prevent
:25:48. > :25:54.strategy? We don't because it scapegoats an entire community. The
:25:55. > :25:57.report shows that contrary to a lot of lone wolf theories and people
:25:58. > :26:01.being radicalised in their bedrooms on the Internet that 80% of those
:26:02. > :26:21.convicted had connections with the extremist groups. Indeed 25% willing
:26:22. > :26:27.to Al-Muhajiroun. I think this report, which is a thorough piece of
:26:28. > :26:32.work, charts a long period and it is probably true to say that in the
:26:33. > :26:36.earlier stages these organisations were very important, of course
:26:37. > :26:42.subsequently we have had direct recruiting by IS one to one over the
:26:43. > :26:45.Internet so we have a mixed picture of how people are recruited but
:26:46. > :26:50.there's no doubt these organisations are recruiting sergeants. You were
:26:51. > :26:58.once a member of one of these organisations, are we doing enough
:26:59. > :27:07.to thwart them? If we just focus on these organisations, we will fail.
:27:08. > :27:10.We -- the question is are we doing enough to neutralise them? The
:27:11. > :27:16.Government strategy is in the right place, but where we need to focus on
:27:17. > :27:22.is the Muslim community or communities. The Muslim community
:27:23. > :27:26.must realise that these violent extremists are fringe but they share
:27:27. > :27:29.ideas, a broad spectrum of ideas that penetrate deeply within Muslim
:27:30. > :27:34.communities and we need to tackle those ideas because that is where it
:27:35. > :27:41.all begins. Are you in favour of banning groups like Al-Muhajiroun?
:27:42. > :27:46.Yes, it was the right thing to do and I can tell you the community has
:27:47. > :27:53.moved a long way, Al-Muhajiroun does not have support. Do you agree with
:27:54. > :28:01.that? Yes, but it is very simplistic attacking Al-Muhajiroun. ISIS didn't
:28:02. > :28:05.bring about extremism, extremism brought about ISIS, ISIS is just the
:28:06. > :28:10.brand and if we don't deal with the ideological ideas we will have other
:28:11. > :28:17.organisations popping up. The report suggests that almost a quarter of
:28:18. > :28:23.Islamist the latest offences were committed by individuals previous
:28:24. > :28:27.unknown to the security services. And this is on the rise, these
:28:28. > :28:29.numbers. This would seem to make an already difficult task for our
:28:30. > :28:36.intelligence services almost impossible. Two points. It is over
:28:37. > :28:45.80% I think were known, but it shows the intelligence services and police
:28:46. > :28:49.have got their eyes open. But the trend has been towards more not on
:28:50. > :28:55.the radar. That has been because the nature of the recruitment has also
:28:56. > :29:03.changed and you have much more ISIS inspired go out and do it yourself,
:29:04. > :29:07.get a knife, do something simple, so we have fewer of the big
:29:08. > :29:17.spectaculars that ISIS organised. Now you have got locally organised
:29:18. > :29:20.people, two or three people get together, do something together,
:29:21. > :29:27.very much harder actually to get forewarning of that. That is where
:29:28. > :29:33.intelligence inside the community, the community coming to the police
:29:34. > :29:39.say I'm worried about my friend, this is how you get ahead of that
:29:40. > :29:43.kind of attack. Should people in the Muslim community who are worried
:29:44. > :29:46.about individuals being radicalised, perhaps going down the terrorist
:29:47. > :29:52.route, should they bring in the police? Absolutely and we have been
:29:53. > :29:57.consistent on telling the community that wherever they suspect someone
:29:58. > :30:00.has been involved in terrorism or any kind of criminal activity, they
:30:01. > :30:08.should call the police and cooperate. As the so-called
:30:09. > :30:10.caliphate collapses in the Middle East, how worried should we be about
:30:11. > :30:23.fighters returning here? Extremely worried. They fall into
:30:24. > :30:27.three categories. You have ones who are disillusioned about Islamic
:30:28. > :30:30.State. You have ones who are disturbed, and then you have the
:30:31. > :30:35.dangerous who have not disavowed their ideas and who will have great
:30:36. > :30:42.reasons to perform attacks. What do we do? Anyone who comes back, there
:30:43. > :30:48.should be evidence looked into if they committed any crimes. But all
:30:49. > :30:52.those categories should all be be radicalised. You cannot leave them
:30:53. > :30:58.alone. Will we be sure if we know when they come back? That is
:30:59. > :31:05.difficult to say. They could come in and we might not know. There is a
:31:06. > :31:12.watch list so you have got a better chance. And you can identify them?
:31:13. > :31:15.This is where working with other countries is absolutely crucial and
:31:16. > :31:20.our border controls need to be good as well. I am not saying and the
:31:21. > :31:24.government is not saying that anyone would ever slip through, but it is
:31:25. > :31:30.our ability to know when somebody is coming through and to stop them at
:31:31. > :31:34.the border has improved. An important question. Given your
:31:35. > :31:42.experience, how prepared are away for a Paris style attack in a
:31:43. > :31:46.medium-size, provincial city? The government has exercised this one.
:31:47. > :31:50.It started when I was security minister and it has been taken
:31:51. > :31:54.seriously. The single biggest challenge that the police and the
:31:55. > :31:57.Army says will be one of those mobile, roving attacks. You have to
:31:58. > :32:02.take it seriously and the government does. All right, we will leave it
:32:03. > :32:06.Now, Brexit may have swept austerity from the front pages,
:32:07. > :32:09.but the deficit hasn't gone away and the government is still
:32:10. > :32:12.Just this week Whitehall announced that government departments have
:32:13. > :32:16.been told to find another ?3.5bn worth of savings by 2020.
:32:17. > :32:19.Last November the Independent office for Budget Responsibility
:32:20. > :32:22.said the budget deficit would be ?68 billion in the current
:32:23. > :32:27.It would still be ?17 billion by 2021-22.
:32:28. > :32:30.On Wednesday the Chancellor is expected to announce
:32:31. > :32:36.that the 2016-17 deficit has come in much lower than the OBR forecast.
:32:37. > :32:39.Even so, the government is still aiming for the lowest level
:32:40. > :32:44.of public spending as a percentage of national income since 2003-4,
:32:45. > :32:47.coupled with an increase in the tax burden to its highest
:32:48. > :32:53.So spending cuts will continue with reductions in day-to-day
:32:54. > :32:57.government spending accelerating, producing a real terms cut of over
:32:58. > :33:03.But capital spending, investment on infrastructure
:33:04. > :33:07.like roads, hospitals, housing, is projected to grow,
:33:08. > :33:13.producing a 16 billion real terms increase by 2021-22.
:33:14. > :33:17.The Chancellor's task on Wednesday is to keep these fiscal targets
:33:18. > :33:20.while finding some more money for areas under serious
:33:21. > :33:27.pressure such as the NHS, social care and business rates.
:33:28. > :33:32.We're joined now by Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
:33:33. > :33:39.Welcome back to the programme. In last March's budget the OBR
:33:40. > :33:43.predicted just over 2% economic growth for this year. By the Autumn
:33:44. > :33:48.Statement in the wake of the Brexit vote it downgraded back to 1.4%. It
:33:49. > :33:54.is now expected to revise that back around to 2% as the Bank of England
:33:55. > :33:59.has again. It is speculated on the future. It looks like we will get a
:34:00. > :34:04.growth forecast for this year not very different from where it was a
:34:05. > :34:07.year ago. What the bank did was upgrade its forecast for the next
:34:08. > :34:12.year or so, but not change very much. It was thinking about three or
:34:13. > :34:17.four years' time, which is what really matters. It looked like the
:34:18. > :34:21.OBR made a mistake in downgrading the growth in the Autumn Statement
:34:22. > :34:26.three months ago. It was more optimistic than nearly all the other
:34:27. > :34:33.forecasters and the Bank of England. It was wrong, but not as wrong as
:34:34. > :34:37.everybody else. We don't know, but if it significantly upgraded its
:34:38. > :34:44.growth forecast for the next three or four years, I would be surprised.
:34:45. > :34:47.It also added 12 billion to the deficit for the current financial
:34:48. > :34:53.year in the Autumn Statement, compared with March. It looks like
:34:54. > :34:58.that deficit will probably be cut again by about 12 billion compared
:34:59. > :35:02.to the last OBR forecast. It is quite difficult to make economic
:35:03. > :35:07.policy on the basis of changes of that skill every couple of months.
:35:08. > :35:12.That is one of the problems about having these two economic event so
:35:13. > :35:15.close together. My guess is the number will come out somewhere
:35:16. > :35:19.between the budget and the Autumn Statement numbers. There was a nice
:35:20. > :35:24.surprise for the Chancellor last month which looked like tax revenues
:35:25. > :35:28.were coming in a lot more strongly than he expected. But again the real
:35:29. > :35:32.question is how much is this making a difference in the medium run? Is
:35:33. > :35:38.this a one-off thing all good news for the next several years? If
:35:39. > :35:42.growth and revenues are stronger, perhaps not as strong as the good
:35:43. > :35:46.news last month, but if they are stronger than had been forecast in
:35:47. > :35:52.the Autumn Statement, what does that mean for planned spending cuts? It
:35:53. > :35:56.probably does not mean very much. Let's not forget the best possible
:35:57. > :36:00.outcome of this budget will be that for the next couple of years things
:36:01. > :36:05.look no worse than they did a year ago and in four years out they will
:36:06. > :36:08.still look a bit worse, and in addition Philip Hammond did increase
:36:09. > :36:14.his spending plans in November. However good the numbers look in a
:36:15. > :36:19.couple of days' time, we will still be borrowing at least 20 billion
:36:20. > :36:26.more by 2020 than we were forecasting a year ago. Still quite
:36:27. > :36:32.constrained. George Osborne wanted to get us to budget surplus by 2019.
:36:33. > :36:37.That has gone. Philip Hammond is quite happy with a big deficit and
:36:38. > :36:43.is not interested in that. But what he is thinking to a large extent, as
:36:44. > :36:47.you have made clear, there is a lot of uncertainty about the economic
:36:48. > :36:51.reaction over the next three or four years. He says he wants some
:36:52. > :36:56.headroom. If things go wrong, I do not want to announce more spending
:36:57. > :37:00.cuts or more tax rises to keep the deficit down. I want to say things
:37:01. > :37:06.have gone wrong for now and we will borrow. And I have got some money in
:37:07. > :37:11.the kitty. He will not spend a lot of it now. I understand the
:37:12. > :37:16.Chancellor is worried about the erosion of the tax base and it is
:37:17. > :37:22.hard to put VAT up by more than 20%, millions have been taken out of
:37:23. > :37:27.income tax, only 46% of people pay income tax, fuel duty is frozen for
:37:28. > :37:31.ever, corporation tax has been cut, the growth in self-employed has
:37:32. > :37:36.reduced revenues, is that a real concern? These are all worries for
:37:37. > :37:41.him. We have as you said in the introduction to this, got a tax
:37:42. > :37:46.burden which is rising very gradually, but it is rising to its
:37:47. > :37:50.highest level since the mid-19 80s, but is not doing it through
:37:51. > :37:55.straightforward increases to income tax. Lots of bits of pieces of
:37:56. > :38:00.insurance premium tax is here and the apprenticeship levied there, and
:38:01. > :38:05.that is higher personal allowance of income tax and a freeze fuel duty,
:38:06. > :38:10.but at some point we will have to look at the tax system as a whole
:38:11. > :38:17.and ask if we can carry on like this. We will have to start increase
:38:18. > :38:24.fuel duties again, or look to those big but unpopular taxes to really
:38:25. > :38:30.keep that money coming in to keep the challenges we will have over the
:38:31. > :38:35.next 30 years. He is going to set up a commission on social care. He has
:38:36. > :38:36.had quite a few commissions on social care. Thank you for being
:38:37. > :38:39.with us. It's just gone 11.35,
:38:40. > :38:41.you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers
:38:42. > :38:43.in Scotland who leave us now Coming up here in twenty
:38:44. > :38:46.minutes, the Week Ahead. First though, the Sunday
:38:47. > :38:56.Politics where you are. This week, London schools get
:38:57. > :39:01.the best results in the country. A little later on today we will be
:39:02. > :39:07.looking at the shake-up of the way schools are funded which is set
:39:08. > :39:10.to see 70% of them in With me this week is Labour MP
:39:11. > :39:17.for Hammersmith, Andy Slaughter, and the Conservative MP
:39:18. > :39:19.for Twickenham, Tanya Mattias. Let's kick off by asking
:39:20. > :39:25.about the budget on Wednesday. One thing, what would
:39:26. > :39:27.you desperately like to I would like to see the government
:39:28. > :39:32.come up with some solution to the crisis in our national health
:39:33. > :39:35.and social care system. That is what my constituents
:39:36. > :39:37.are saying to me is We have got cuts going through,
:39:38. > :39:44.we have got hospital closures, beds being taken out of service,
:39:45. > :39:46.we've got waiting lists, we've got people dying and we need
:39:47. > :39:52.an investment in the NHS. We need an assessment first
:39:53. > :39:56.of all about the NHS's needs. Interesting, my priorities
:39:57. > :40:01.as Andy will know would be I've got some cross-party support,
:40:02. > :40:07.some from your party as well I don't know that it
:40:08. > :40:14.will come next week, but that is where I want things
:40:15. > :40:17.to move towards. I also want protection,
:40:18. > :40:19.as everybody does, for education, business rates, conditional relief
:40:20. > :40:23.and Crossrail for London. Schools in a moment, but interesting
:40:24. > :40:26.on the social care thing. There is a momentum growing here
:40:27. > :40:29.and it is cross-party, isn't it? That means there will be
:40:30. > :40:32.pressure on the Chancellor. What I want is not just sticking
:40:33. > :40:35.plaster, I want a longer term strategy and I think
:40:36. > :40:40.there is a feeling in the Commons of what I call not making it
:40:41. > :40:43.a political football, having a strategy that
:40:44. > :40:46.will go on for decades. There are some good practices
:40:47. > :40:50.as we know, but everybody And that is what I want,
:40:51. > :40:55.I want the budget to show that. Let's go onto another
:40:56. > :40:57.one of your asks. Let's look at the issue
:40:58. > :41:00.of schools funding. There is a shake-up of the way
:41:01. > :41:03.schools are being funded under way and some say it could mean 70%
:41:04. > :41:06.of schools in London lose money. The capital has been the best
:41:07. > :41:09.funded and got the best results in recent years,
:41:10. > :41:13.but what will happen now? The first school to be shut down
:41:14. > :41:17.because it is judged to be failing 20 years ago, London schools
:41:18. > :41:23.were some of Britain's worst. With the vast majority of kids even
:41:24. > :41:26.without five good GCSEs. We came to the conclusion
:41:27. > :41:29.that the boys attending Hackney Downs School were not
:41:30. > :41:32.getting the quality of education they deserved and they would do
:41:33. > :41:35.better to go elsewhere. But big investment and radical
:41:36. > :41:37.reform in the way schools were run has helped transform education
:41:38. > :41:40.in the capital into Today London schools
:41:41. > :41:45.are completely transformed. They are simply the best
:41:46. > :41:49.in the country with 80% of schools being rated either good
:41:50. > :41:53.or outstanding by Ofsted. But could that all be
:41:54. > :41:56.about to change? 70% of London schools are set
:41:57. > :41:59.to lose money thanks to a shake-up That is more than any
:42:00. > :42:04.other region in the UK. According to London councils,
:42:05. > :42:07.schools in the capital will have to make ?360 million worth
:42:08. > :42:10.of savings in the first year The Elizabeth Garrett Anderson
:42:11. > :42:16.School in Islington is one of the country's top 5%
:42:17. > :42:20.for attainment, but for how long? Each pupil here is set to lose
:42:21. > :42:24.around ?650 in funding. The headteacher, Joe Dibb,
:42:25. > :42:27.says there is no way you can lose that amount of cash
:42:28. > :42:32.without education suffering. What we would have to look
:42:33. > :42:34.at is, for example, do Do we make sure that
:42:35. > :42:39.every teacher is teaching That will mean that they have got
:42:40. > :42:44.less individual attention, they have got fewer resources
:42:45. > :42:47.to actually use. We would need to think about every
:42:48. > :42:51.subject we offer and whether in fact we could afford to run a music class
:42:52. > :42:54.if there were only All sorts of things that are outside
:42:55. > :42:59.the learning day by day in a classroom would have to go
:43:00. > :43:02.and that would be reducing schools At the moment kids here get around
:43:03. > :43:12.?7,000 a year each in funding. Like many London schools
:43:13. > :43:14.that is well above the national average which is why the government
:43:15. > :43:18.is changing it. What we need to do is make sure that
:43:19. > :43:22.all schools have a fair funding. You have pointed out just
:43:23. > :43:24.what this school is getting. I don't know the school
:43:25. > :43:28.myself, but what I do know is that it is important
:43:29. > :43:31.to have a fairer funding system We have not had a funding
:43:32. > :43:36.formula for about 15 years. The amount that different local
:43:37. > :43:39.authorities and schools get is largely based on how they looked
:43:40. > :43:43.in the year 2000 and at the moment there is relatively
:43:44. > :43:45.out-of-date information. By some measures the schools
:43:46. > :43:48.with the highest funding in the country are in east
:43:49. > :43:50.London's Tower Hamlets, but according to the local Mayor,
:43:51. > :43:54.John Biggs, there is a very good We have the highest level of child
:43:55. > :43:58.poverty of any local authority in the country and we have very high
:43:59. > :44:02.costs as well, so to build a home in Tower Hamlets costs more
:44:03. > :44:04.than anywhere else in the country. To retain staff requires us to pay
:44:05. > :44:09.extra premiums on the wages, and we have higher incidences
:44:10. > :44:13.of special education needs and kids in poverty who might have
:44:14. > :44:16.challenging lifestyles But more than just the money
:44:17. > :44:23.what will worry many parents is the threat of standards
:44:24. > :44:25.in schools slipping back We asked for a minister to be
:44:26. > :44:32.in that film or to join us in the studio, but no
:44:33. > :44:39.one was available. As we know, we have
:44:40. > :44:43.Andy and Tania here. Tania, how is this funding
:44:44. > :44:45.formula going to affect The funding formula,
:44:46. > :44:49.as you know we have been giving The point is the pie as it were,
:44:50. > :44:53.which is how the formula is dividing up that core budget
:44:54. > :44:56.while it is protected. So while some boroughs may
:44:57. > :45:00.have a small increase, I believe Andy in your area
:45:01. > :45:03.it is slightly decreased, I know it is the rural MPs
:45:04. > :45:06.who are saying the formula But for me it is the core budget
:45:07. > :45:11.that needs to increase But in London in your
:45:12. > :45:31.borough for instance, It is not because the increase
:45:32. > :45:41.in liability is staff pensions, the National Insurance
:45:42. > :45:42.contributions, have all increased and that is what I am
:45:43. > :45:45.hearing from my schools, So regardless, one thing
:45:46. > :45:50.is the formula which people can still contribute to and consult on,
:45:51. > :45:53.we have got a few more weeks for that, but it is the core budget,
:45:54. > :45:56.even though it is protected. All schools are still challenged
:45:57. > :45:59.and that is the London challenge. Yes, there is this change
:46:00. > :46:09.to the formula which is essentially taking money from poorer areas,
:46:10. > :46:11.like in London. In London Hammersmith has 15% free
:46:12. > :46:14.school meals and is losing the maximum it can and the money
:46:15. > :46:16.is essentially going But a bigger problem,
:46:17. > :46:20.as Tanya has said, is inflation rises are not happening across this
:46:21. > :46:24.Parliament. The net effect over the five years
:46:25. > :46:27.of this Parliament in inner London Schools budgets have been
:46:28. > :46:33.going up for 40 years. Under a Labour government
:46:34. > :46:36.they were going up by 5% in real terms a year and they haven't always
:46:37. > :46:45.been at that level, but now they are having an actual real terms
:46:46. > :46:48.cut and the most deprived areas And it is worse than that
:46:49. > :46:55.even because come 2020, because they effectively have got
:46:56. > :46:57.a flaw, you can only lose so much money, after that,
:46:58. > :47:00.and some of my schools will be 30% over-budget according
:47:01. > :47:03.to the government, they will get no What teachers appear to be saying
:47:04. > :47:10.is there will be maybe some impact on the curriculum,
:47:11. > :47:13.there will be larger class sizes, but the figures involved,
:47:14. > :47:15.we are talking 2% or 1%, they are figures they
:47:16. > :47:17.will be able to manage. We are not looking at vast numbers
:47:18. > :47:20.of staff being laid off. Nobody is saying that,
:47:21. > :47:30.and the immediate issue we are debating and consulting
:47:31. > :47:33.on, I urge viewers to go to the Department
:47:34. > :47:36.for Education website and give them that is about this very unfair
:47:37. > :47:40.redistribution of money from poor We hear the ISS saying that
:47:41. > :47:44.formula is 15 years old, we have got to find a new way
:47:45. > :47:48.and what the existing situation perhaps underestimates is the kind
:47:49. > :47:50.of level of poverty and deprivation London has had such a focus
:47:51. > :47:57.on issues of deprivation, so much money and so much expertise,
:47:58. > :47:59.perhaps disproportionately, I have got schools in my
:48:00. > :48:02.constituency where more than two thirds of the kids
:48:03. > :48:05.are on free school meals. There is nowhere like
:48:06. > :48:07.that in the areas where It is a very cynical,
:48:08. > :48:11.political trick to take money from Labour and give it
:48:12. > :48:14.to Tory constituencies. But on top of that, all schools
:48:15. > :48:17.are suffering because they are not You are nodding, do
:48:18. > :48:21.you agree with that point? Outer London is
:48:22. > :48:33.predominantly Conservative. it's not...it will be
:48:34. > :48:39.taking from one school and giving to another,
:48:40. > :48:41.but the point about the formula, and remember we have had a previous
:48:42. > :48:44.consultation phase which the then Secretary of State for Education did
:48:45. > :48:47.add the mobility factors which London needed and that has
:48:48. > :48:50.been included in this next phase, so the details of the formula
:48:51. > :48:53.are trying to address exactly what you are saying, are trying
:48:54. > :48:59.to address those higher needs, so I would counter that,
:49:00. > :49:02.and you did in your clip show MPs from other areas that have
:49:03. > :49:09.suffered in the past. I know in the debates my borough
:49:10. > :49:12.was cited as being unfairly advantaged in the old system
:49:13. > :49:17.because they were using such out-of-date data and the schools
:49:18. > :49:20.that have written to me, they do not question the need
:49:21. > :49:23.for a fairer formula. When you are looking
:49:24. > :49:32.at the formula and London, would it seem right that people
:49:33. > :49:40.in an area that is widely accepted as being better off and with fewer
:49:41. > :49:42.socio-economic problems, like Richmond and Twickenham,
:49:43. > :49:44.that that area is getting increases in funding while you are taking
:49:45. > :49:49.funding away from inner London boroughs were the results have been
:49:50. > :49:52.good but where the need exists. I think every person who contributes
:49:53. > :49:55.to that consultation is going to agree with Andy
:49:56. > :50:00.and myself and the basis of this, it's per pupil,
:50:01. > :50:03.but it does give weight to places Also remember the special
:50:04. > :50:07.educational needs are protected That is what I said earlier,
:50:08. > :50:21.it is not just this redistribution What we are being told
:50:22. > :50:28.is you will still be getting too much money and you will not
:50:29. > :50:30.for the foreseeable future get any inflationary
:50:31. > :50:32.increases going beyond 2020 at all and that is despair
:50:33. > :50:35.for parents, teachers and children. More analysis emerged this week
:50:36. > :50:38.pointing out how Brexit could affect The focus, how to maintain a skilled
:50:39. > :50:42.workforce in the face of future immigration controls and what impact
:50:43. > :50:45.that could have on building vital London is growing, and it
:50:46. > :50:53.needs to build more homes To do that, the city needs skilled
:50:54. > :50:56.construction workers. Of the 350,000 workers
:50:57. > :50:58.in the sector, 95,000 Post-Brexit, their right to work
:50:59. > :51:10.in the UK is now up for negotiation. The deputy mayor for housing is
:51:11. > :51:12.worried about meeting his targets. We have very challenging
:51:13. > :51:14.targets to meet. We know it's going to be a marathon,
:51:15. > :51:17.not a sprint, we know it's going to be hard to get
:51:18. > :51:20.there and I think this really underscores the fact that a hard
:51:21. > :51:23.Brexit would make that job The construction sector
:51:24. > :51:25.is also worried. We want to deliver more homes,
:51:26. > :51:28.we want to supply more homes, but frankly,
:51:29. > :51:29.without the construction workers and with imports
:51:30. > :51:31.becoming more expensive, Those skills from the EU might be
:51:32. > :51:37.replaced by training Londoners, but that's not quite going to plan,
:51:38. > :51:40.according to a new report from the business advocacy
:51:41. > :51:45.group London First. In construction, you can see over
:51:46. > :51:48.the last years we have available from 2012 to 2014,
:51:49. > :51:50.the number of apprenticeships completed in London have actually
:51:51. > :51:55.fallen from 730 to 500. This is a sector that is crying
:51:56. > :51:59.out for skilled labour. So, what did the Minister
:52:00. > :52:02.for Housing have to say when MPs If there is a mass
:52:03. > :52:06.exodus, if you like, I don't really want to speculate
:52:07. > :52:11.on that because I don't think that's what's going to happen,
:52:12. > :52:13.and the Government is very clear that our objective, as soon as
:52:14. > :52:16.we get the negotiations under way, is to secure the status quo
:52:17. > :52:19.for British citizens in the EU He thinks an exodus is unlikely,
:52:20. > :52:22.but it's worth pointing out the Prime Minister has so far
:52:23. > :52:25.refused to give assurances about EU I'm joined by the Deputy Leader
:52:26. > :52:35.of Ukip who is the also leader of the Ukip group at
:52:36. > :52:47.the London Assembly, Peter Whittle. Welcome to you. How do you
:52:48. > :52:50.anticipate how do you think, I'm in the construction sector is the one
:52:51. > :52:55.we focused on, going to meet the needs of the economy with or without
:52:56. > :53:00.EU workers? It has always been the position of my party that EU
:53:01. > :53:08.citizens working here and settled here should absolutely stay. I think
:53:09. > :53:12.this is very bad of the Government and Theresa May to basically put
:53:13. > :53:17.people in that position where they are political pawns so we think
:53:18. > :53:23.people should stay. In other words she loses her negotiating position.
:53:24. > :53:27.I don't think you should use people in that way. We have never deviated
:53:28. > :53:32.from that, that basically when Brexit comes people should be
:53:33. > :53:36.allowed to stay, but I think the main problem really, particularly in
:53:37. > :53:42.the construction industry, is that there is a massive skills gap. The
:53:43. > :53:46.things that have been coming out of City Hall this week somehow or
:53:47. > :53:51.another wants to kick this tin along the road. It says yes we do have a
:53:52. > :53:56.skills gap, and we must look at that but for the time being we need these
:53:57. > :54:01.workers. Basically London's population has grown by 25% in two
:54:02. > :54:06.decades. If you bring more people into build houses, where will they
:54:07. > :54:11.live? Probably they will end up living in appalling conditions as we
:54:12. > :54:16.have often seen. So what are you arguing should happen? You are
:54:17. > :54:20.saying the construction workers, the people settled here now, they should
:54:21. > :54:23.stay but you know there is a natural churn and there are people who will
:54:24. > :54:27.stay short term and go, you would put controls on that but all of the
:54:28. > :54:31.indicators from business groups is that will lead to serious problems
:54:32. > :54:34.in terms of the sector of construction if you do that. What
:54:35. > :54:40.arrangements would you put in place to allow more to come in? The point
:54:41. > :54:45.is here is that time and again we hear this, I go back to what I have
:54:46. > :54:50.just said, we need to train people who are here. So you would say no
:54:51. > :54:57.more, in other words? That might not necessarily be the case. We would
:54:58. > :55:02.have a points system, so if you need certain skills, it you need certain
:55:03. > :55:05.skills, that is the beauty of a points system but the Government
:55:06. > :55:12.have not really said anything about how they plan to control migration.
:55:13. > :55:17.Of course it was a points system that Labour introduced in terms of
:55:18. > :55:23.the migration strategy, is that what you accept we would need now? I'm
:55:24. > :55:26.genuinely confused by all of these Brexiteers jumping through hoops
:55:27. > :55:31.about how we don't really mean it about these EU workers, of course we
:55:32. > :55:35.want them to stay but when you ask for commitments, they are not
:55:36. > :55:42.forthcoming. People are voting with their feet now because of the real
:55:43. > :55:46.uncertainty. One in six people in my constituency comes from one of the
:55:47. > :55:51.other 27 EU... And so every other weekend when I knock on doors that
:55:52. > :55:53.is the number one issue and people are really scared, and
:55:54. > :55:58.understandably they are not making that commitment of this country.
:55:59. > :56:02.What are they worried about? Because if they have been here for a long
:56:03. > :56:06.time there will be applying for residency. Come with me one weekend
:56:07. > :56:09.and you will see the fear and concern and despair people have is
:56:10. > :56:13.that they feel they are not wanted in this country any more, and can be
:56:14. > :56:19.professional people in the tech industry, is construction workers.
:56:20. > :56:26.Do you agree? The uncertainty needs to be resolved? Absolutely, like
:56:27. > :56:30.Andy, it is upsetting when you have EU nationals, and I had a surgery
:56:31. > :56:36.with one of our MEPs to reassure people, and they come from all
:56:37. > :56:40.sectors, the care sector, science, creativity. These are all sectors
:56:41. > :56:45.where we want EU nationals to continue to come and work here, it
:56:46. > :56:50.is for our benefit, and the sadness is that the people I have met do
:56:51. > :56:54.have the right to remain, but they are still concerned. And the ones
:56:55. > :56:59.you want to encourage to come in the future, how would you do it? Is it a
:57:00. > :57:05.work permit, a points-based system? Is there an argument for regional
:57:06. > :57:10.London work permit system? I see it sector by sector, I'm happy for a
:57:11. > :57:13.system where there is the ease of people coming in. We do have a
:57:14. > :57:19.problem with science recruiting people from overseas who want to
:57:20. > :57:24.make it simple and non-bureaucratic. It's the practicality I am more
:57:25. > :57:27.concerned about. Now we are where we are, you are someone voted for
:57:28. > :57:33.Remain, what do you want to see in place now? I do want to see more
:57:34. > :57:37.people trained in this country but I have got a fantastic further
:57:38. > :57:41.education college in my constituency that trains people very well in
:57:42. > :57:47.construction skills, they are massively downsized because their
:57:48. > :57:53.budgets have been cut. We will need migrant EU labour, a quarter of all
:57:54. > :57:57.construction workers in London, and the other quarter from countries
:57:58. > :58:04.around the world. I'm afraid listening to parties like Ukip has
:58:05. > :58:09.created this climate of fear, now crying crocodile tears about it, it
:58:10. > :58:12.is a disgrace quite frankly. You are in the wrong argument with the wrong
:58:13. > :58:19.person. We have always said as a party... You are Ukip
:58:20. > :58:24.representative, aren't you? You are responsible for this climate. This
:58:25. > :58:29.country voted to leave the EU, you cannot come to terms with that, that
:58:30. > :58:33.is why you are so angry. My party has always said people from the EU
:58:34. > :58:38.who live and are settled here absolutely remain. We have never
:58:39. > :58:43.deviated from that and if the Government chooses to basically
:58:44. > :58:48.cause indecision and uncertainty for people, that is their fault and you
:58:49. > :58:56.should be directing it at them. Secondly, the other point I would
:58:57. > :59:03.make... Very quickly, wrap-up. The hypocrisy is extraordinary. The fact
:59:04. > :59:07.is as well that sooner or later we have got to seriously start training
:59:08. > :59:10.people here to do the jobs that at the moment we are bringing people in
:59:11. > :59:13.to do. Thank you for coming in. Now for the rest of the political
:59:14. > :59:19.news in 60 seconds. Delays in Government backing
:59:20. > :59:22.for a new Thames crossing are damaging the UK economy,
:59:23. > :59:25.according to the Federation They claim delays threaten to bring
:59:26. > :59:30.the south-east to a standstill and the crossing was creaking under
:59:31. > :59:32.the pressure of 50 million The trust behind plans
:59:33. > :59:38.to build the Garden Bridge across the River Thames in London
:59:39. > :59:41.has been cleared of any financial irregularities
:59:42. > :59:44.by the Charity Commission. The commission found
:59:45. > :59:47.the trust had sound financial processes and the award
:59:48. > :59:51.of contracts was robust. Southwark Council has been fined
:59:52. > :59:53.for breaching fire safety regulations after a tower block
:59:54. > :59:56.blaze in 2009 killed three A ?400,000 fine was reduced to
:59:57. > :00:03.?270,000 because the council pleaded I think it was fair,
:00:04. > :00:10.taking into account, as the judge did, all the mitigating
:00:11. > :00:13.factors that were put forward, and I think particularly our close
:00:14. > :00:15.working relationship with London Fire Brigade
:00:16. > :00:34.since this incident. Thought about a river crossing. We
:00:35. > :00:40.have talked about funding for schools. We have got a Labour Mayor
:00:41. > :00:44.and a Conservative government, do you think London will lose out in
:00:45. > :00:52.the coming years and it will have to rebalance it to the rest of the
:00:53. > :00:58.country? Interesting. Obviously I did not campaign for Sadiq Khan, but
:00:59. > :01:03.I give him credit because as soon as he was elected, cross-party MPs
:01:04. > :01:08.wrote to him over our concerns on Heathrow and air pollution. As
:01:09. > :01:12.London Mayor he has led very well on that and I see him as a London
:01:13. > :01:20.Mayor. I think he will fight the corner for London, we will fight the
:01:21. > :01:24.corner as London MPs, and I see people working together. So it is
:01:25. > :01:30.not party political. Everyone, Labour and Tory will get the best
:01:31. > :01:36.for the capital. Maybe it has had too much? Sadiq Khan is doing an
:01:37. > :01:39.excellent job, but I was astonished to hear Michael Gove saying he
:01:40. > :01:43.wished he had not cancelled the schools building programme. We do
:01:44. > :01:50.need Housing Bill in London and we need Crossrail as well. We will be
:01:51. > :01:51.poring over the entrails of the budget next week. Thank you very
:01:52. > :01:57.much indeed. So the Brexit Bill is back in
:01:58. > :02:02.the Lords next week and the Lib Dems They've ordered pizza and camp beds
:02:03. > :02:06.to encourage their peers to keep talking all night,
:02:07. > :02:09.only to be told by the Lord's authorities that their plans fall
:02:10. > :02:21.foul of health and safety laws. Laws that they probably voted for.
:02:22. > :02:24.What did you make of David Liddington's remarks on the Lords
:02:25. > :02:30.amendments, particularly not just the one on EU nationals, but on what
:02:31. > :02:36.is regarded as a meaningful vote at the end of the process? Let's be
:02:37. > :02:39.clear, as ministers like to say, the meaningful vote vote is by far the
:02:40. > :02:47.biggest thing that will happen in Parliament. It puts EU citizens into
:02:48. > :02:52.a tiny corner. It will decide not just who is going to have the final
:02:53. > :02:57.say on this, but who the EU is negotiating with. Is it directly
:02:58. > :03:00.with Theresa May or is it with Parliament? Who will decide the
:03:01. > :03:08.shape of Brexit, Parliament or Theresa May? The Lords amendment is
:03:09. > :03:12.just the first chapter. They have voiced Theresa May to give them a
:03:13. > :03:17.veto on everything she does, and there is a possible chance in the
:03:18. > :03:24.Commons could uphold this amendment. The meaningful vote amendment? The
:03:25. > :03:28.meaningful vote amendment. But is it a meaningful vote if the choice is
:03:29. > :03:35.to either back the deal or crash out of the deal? That is what the remain
:03:36. > :03:40.supporting MPs or hardline people who want to remain fear. What they
:03:41. > :03:47.want is the power to be able to send Theresa May back to the negotiating
:03:48. > :03:50.table. Why is that anathema to many Brexit supporters? They believed it
:03:51. > :03:55.would crucially and critically undermine Theresa May's negotiating
:03:56. > :03:59.hand and also create a long period of uncertainty for business. There
:04:00. > :04:05.is already great uncertainty and this could extend it. The
:04:06. > :04:10.government's position is in there was a proper, meaningful vote which
:04:11. > :04:15.Parliament could reject what was on offer, that would be an incentive to
:04:16. > :04:20.the EU to give us a bad deal? I think that is the fear. If you are
:04:21. > :04:23.saying to the people you are negotiating with that that is
:04:24. > :04:28.another authority and Theresa May will have to go back and have all of
:04:29. > :04:32.this approved, I think it would have a very significant undermining
:04:33. > :04:38.effect on her negotiating hand. Things change from day to day. We
:04:39. > :04:44.are talking about 2019 and 2018 at the earliest, but if the government
:04:45. > :04:53.lost a vote on the Brexit deal, would he not have to call in someone
:04:54. > :04:58.else? That is why the vote will be meaningful even if the amendment on
:04:59. > :05:03.this meaningful vote will be lost. You cannot do a deal on something as
:05:04. > :05:09.historic as Brexit and have Parliament against you. So, whatever
:05:10. > :05:16.form this vote takes, whenever it happens, it will be hugely
:05:17. > :05:21.meaningful. Whatever label that is given and if she lost it she would
:05:22. > :05:28.call a general election. She could not impose it. To call a general
:05:29. > :05:31.election now you need a majority of MPs which she will not have, so
:05:32. > :05:35.maybe she will not get her election after all. It would be very unlike
:05:36. > :05:39.Labour not to vote for an election. It would be very unlike Labour not
:05:40. > :05:42.to vote for an election. The elections to Stormont have given
:05:43. > :05:45.a boost to the republicans and put the long term status
:05:46. > :05:47.of Northern Ireland in some doubt. Sinn Fein's leader Gerry Adams
:05:48. > :05:49.spoke to reporters Yesterday was in many,
:05:50. > :05:55.many ways a watershed election, and we have just started a process
:05:56. > :05:59.of reflecting what it all means, but clearly the union's majority
:06:00. > :06:14.in the Assembly has been ended, and the notion of a permanent
:06:15. > :06:27.or a perpetual unionist majority Is he right? Is this a watershed?
:06:28. > :06:32.The nationalist vote in the assembly will now come to 39 and the
:06:33. > :06:38.Unionists 38. It is only one member, but it is significant. This is a
:06:39. > :06:42.very serious moment and because of everything else going on with Donald
:06:43. > :06:45.Trump and Brexit it is taking a while for people here to realise
:06:46. > :06:51.just how significant this is. Talking to someone who only recently
:06:52. > :06:54.left a significant role in Northern Ireland politics last night, they
:06:55. > :06:59.said they were very worried about what this means. It is likely there
:07:00. > :07:03.will be a call for some kind of international figure to chair the
:07:04. > :07:08.talks to try and see if there is a way of everybody working together.
:07:09. > :07:12.All sides will probably try to extract more money from the
:07:13. > :07:17.Treasury, but it is a very dangerous moment. Should we regard Michelle
:07:18. > :07:21.O'Neill, who has replaced Mr McGuinness as the leader, it is she
:07:22. > :07:30.the First Minister death probably not quite. An interesting thought.
:07:31. > :07:36.Indeed, the daughter of an IRA man, a fascinating concept in itself. But
:07:37. > :07:41.there are are still a large amount of MLAs who will not give Sinn Fein
:07:42. > :07:45.what they need. But what effect does this have on the legacy of the
:07:46. > :07:49.prosecutions and the great witchhunts which the British
:07:50. > :07:56.Government has vowed to end. There is a majority left on the Stormont
:07:57. > :07:59.assembly to end those. But some would keep them going for time
:08:00. > :08:08.continuing, which is a headache for Theresa May. You have now got 27
:08:09. > :08:12.Sinn Fein members, 28 DUP, then the SDLP bumps up the numbers a little
:08:13. > :08:17.bit. You have got the British Government transfixed with Brexit
:08:18. > :08:22.which has huge implications for the border between North and South in
:08:23. > :08:28.Ireland, and the Irish government is pretty wavering as well and if there
:08:29. > :08:31.is an election there, Sinn Fein could do well in the Dublin
:08:32. > :08:36.parliament as well. There are a lot of moving pieces. There are and
:08:37. > :08:41.there is a danger that we look at everything through the prism of
:08:42. > :08:46.Brexit, but I found Friday and this weekend fascinating. Theresa May and
:08:47. > :08:50.Scotland were Nicola Sturgeon is framing Brexit entirely through an
:08:51. > :08:56.argument to have a second referendum on independence which she wants to
:08:57. > :09:02.hold it she possibly can. And the Irish situation with the prospect of
:09:03. > :09:09.a hard border with Northern Ireland voting majority to remain, quite a
:09:10. > :09:16.substantial majority, again a few of the instability at the moment. That
:09:17. > :09:20.We will be keeping an eye on it for sure.
:09:21. > :09:22.Yesterday, US President Donald Trump tweeted allegations
:09:23. > :09:25.that his predecessor, Barack Obama, had ordered
:09:26. > :09:27.his phones to be tapped during the election campaign.
:09:28. > :09:30."Terrible!", Trump wrote, "Just found out that Obama
:09:31. > :09:34.had my "wires tapped" in Trump Tower just before the victory.
:09:35. > :09:47.I'm not quite sure what McCarthyism that is.
:09:48. > :09:50.He followed up with a series of tweets comparing it to Watergate.
:09:51. > :09:56."How low has President Obama gone to tap my phones during the very
:09:57. > :10:09.The sacred election process, I think at one stage he said it was a dodgy
:10:10. > :10:10.election process, but now it is sacred.
:10:11. > :10:24.You are frightened to go to bed at night, you do not know what you are
:10:25. > :10:28.going to wake up to. Completely uncharted territory here. Little
:10:29. > :10:31.more than a month ago at the inauguration they were making the
:10:32. > :10:39.veneer of small talk and politely shaking hands. He saw Barack Obama
:10:40. > :10:45.and Michelle off on the helicopter. You do not know what is coming next.
:10:46. > :10:51.Is there a scintilla of evidence to back up Donald Trump's claims? Yes,
:10:52. > :10:55.there is, although he is very muddled about it all. I will
:10:56. > :11:07.explain. Remember what happened to Mike Flynn, talking to the Russian
:11:08. > :11:12.and Ambassador will stop they were listening. Barack Obama does not
:11:13. > :11:16.sign of warrants, but somebody else did. So why on earth would you not
:11:17. > :11:24.want to listen to the president elect himself in case he might also
:11:25. > :11:28.be breaking the law. Does that sound to you like convincing evidence or
:11:29. > :11:33.just a supposition? I think Tom should go and work for him, that is
:11:34. > :11:38.the most credible interpretation I have heard for a long time. Start
:11:39. > :11:43.tweeting the case for the tweet. What is interesting about this is my
:11:44. > :11:48.theory is he does not really like the idea of being a president. That
:11:49. > :11:54.wild press conference he gave a couple of weeks ago there was one ad
:11:55. > :11:59.lib that did not get repeated which was, I suppose I am a politician
:12:00. > :12:03.now, as if he was humiliated at the idea of being a president. He likes
:12:04. > :12:09.being the businessman with a swagger tweeting around the clock. And
:12:10. > :12:14.campaigning again. He keeps going to what looked like campaign rallies. I
:12:15. > :12:18.disagree with you about him not liking being president. I think he
:12:19. > :12:22.loves the idea of being the president, but the reality is so
:12:23. > :12:25.frustrating on every level, finding he does not have unlimited room for
:12:26. > :12:30.manoeuvre and so many things have been put in place to stop them doing
:12:31. > :12:33.things he would do in the business environment. We have had two more
:12:34. > :12:39.tweets from him this morning, I guess when he woke up. Who was it
:12:40. > :12:41.who secretly said to the Russian president, tell Vladimir that after
:12:42. > :12:50.the election I will have more flexibility? Who was that? Possibly
:12:51. > :12:54.Hillary Clinton. Is it true the Democratic National committee would
:12:55. > :12:59.not allow the FBI access to check server or other equipment after
:13:00. > :13:03.learning it was hacked? Can that be possible? This was all an issue in
:13:04. > :13:08.the campaign. He is now a president. Shall I point out the flaw in Tom's
:13:09. > :13:12.theory. They were not bugging Michael Flynn's phone, it was the
:13:13. > :13:21.Russian Ambassador's telephone they were barking. Mr Neil, I would never
:13:22. > :13:25.contradict you on this programme. But if you suspect there was
:13:26. > :13:32.criminal activity going on, as there was by Michael Flynn, why would you
:13:33. > :13:37.not want to put on a tap? I don't know. That is it for today.
:13:38. > :13:40.I'll be back next week here on BBC One at 11am as usual.
:13:41. > :13:43.The Daily Politics is back tomorrow at midday on BBC Two.
:13:44. > :14:33.But remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.
:14:34. > :14:35.The thing that's so clear is that it's 100% honest.
:14:36. > :14:40.We're right in the middle of the action.
:14:41. > :14:43.The remarkable story of British photography.
:14:44. > :14:46.The only cameras that were there that day
:14:47. > :14:52.How pioneering artists and technology