:00:37. > :00:40.It's Sunday Morning and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:41. > :00:43.The Government has insisted that Gibraltar will not be bargained
:00:44. > :00:47.But the territory's chief minister says the EU's proposal
:00:48. > :00:53.After a momentous week, Britain's journey out
:00:54. > :00:56.Can the Prime Minister satisfy her critics at home
:00:57. > :01:02.We speak to the former Conservative leader, Michael Howard.
:01:03. > :01:05.And we have the lowdown on next month's local elections -
:01:06. > :01:12.what exactly is up for grabs, who's going up and who's going down?
:01:13. > :01:21.In London, little sign of people changing their minds. MPs from
:01:22. > :01:28.opposing sides give the view from there constituencies.
:01:29. > :01:31.And with me, as always, the best and the brightest political
:01:32. > :01:33.panel in the business - Steve Richards, Isabel Oakeshott
:01:34. > :01:39.and Tom Newton Dunn who'll be tweeting throughout the programme.
:01:40. > :01:41.For the people of Gibraltar, Clause 22 of the EU's draft negotiating
:01:42. > :01:44.guidelines came as something of a shock.
:01:45. > :01:49.The guidelines propose that the Government in Spain be
:01:50. > :01:52.given a veto over any future trade deal as it applies to
:01:53. > :01:57.The UK Government has reacted strongly, saying Gibraltar
:01:58. > :02:00.will not be bargained away in the Brexit talks.
:02:01. > :02:06.Here's the Defence Secretary, Michael Fallon, speaking
:02:07. > :02:12.We are going to look after Gibraltar.
:02:13. > :02:16.Gibraltar's going to be protected all the way, all the way,
:02:17. > :02:18.because the sovereignty of Gibraltar cannot be changed without
:02:19. > :02:21.the agreement of the people of Gibraltar and they have made it
:02:22. > :02:24.very clear they do not want to live under Spanish rule
:02:25. > :02:27.and it is interesting, I think, in the draft guidelines from the EU
:02:28. > :02:30.that Spain is not saying that the whole thing is subject
:02:31. > :02:42.Michael Fallon earlier. Steve, is this a Spanish power grab or much
:02:43. > :02:45.ado about nothing? It could be both. Clearly what is happening about this
:02:46. > :02:49.negotiation and will happen again and again is that at different
:02:50. > :02:57.points individual countries can start playing bargaining cards. They
:02:58. > :03:02.will say, if you want a deal, you have to deliver this, UK. Spain is
:03:03. > :03:09.doing it early. It might turn out to be nothing at all. It is an early
:03:10. > :03:16.example of how to delete recruit after Article 50 is triggered, the
:03:17. > :03:21.dynamic -- how after Article 50 is triggered, the dynamic changes. At
:03:22. > :03:26.certain points, any country can veto it. It gives them much more power
:03:27. > :03:30.than we have clocked so far. Donald Tusk, the head of the European
:03:31. > :03:35.Council, he went out of his way to say Britain mustn't deal by
:03:36. > :03:40.laterally, with individual countries, it has to deal with the
:03:41. > :03:47.EU as a block. Was it mischiefmaking to add this bit in about Spain?
:03:48. > :03:54.Those two things do not tally. I think on our part, when I say we, I
:03:55. > :03:59.mean the Foreign Office and Number 10, we dropped the ball. By
:04:00. > :04:03.excluding Gibraltar from the letter of Article 50, they gave an
:04:04. > :04:09.opportunity to the Spanish to steal the narrative. Why this is
:04:10. > :04:13.important, presentation, things looked like they were going quite
:04:14. > :04:18.well for Theresa May when she handed over the letter, for a few hours,
:04:19. > :04:24.and suddenly, you have this incredible symbolism of Gibraltar.
:04:25. > :04:28.For Brexiteers, the idea that there could be some kind of diminishment
:04:29. > :04:33.or failure in relation to Gibraltar, it would be a very symbolic
:04:34. > :04:37.illustration of things not going entirely to plan. Forget the detail,
:04:38. > :04:43.it does not look great. Gibraltar got mentions in the white paper.
:04:44. > :04:48.They did not get a mention in the Article 50 notification. Do you
:04:49. > :04:52.think the British Government did not see this coming? To be honest, I do
:04:53. > :04:57.not think it would make a bit of difference. Theresa May could have
:04:58. > :04:59.an entire chapter in her letter to Donald Tusk and the Spanish and the
:05:00. > :05:07.EU would have still tried this on. For me, it was as much a point of
:05:08. > :05:11.symbolism than it was for any power grab. It was a good point to make.
:05:12. > :05:16.You need to know, Britain, you are not in our club, we will not have
:05:17. > :05:20.your interests at heart. Officials after the press conference, they
:05:21. > :05:29.went on to talk about it saying it is a territorial dispute. It is not!
:05:30. > :05:33.Gibraltar is British. It is very much a shot across the bow is.
:05:34. > :05:38.Whether it comes to pass, it is still yet to be seen. I feel we will
:05:39. > :05:45.be chasing hares like this for the next few years. There will be many
:05:46. > :05:50.other examples. They are greatly empowered by the whole process.
:05:51. > :05:54.Britain has not really got... It has got to wait and hear what their
:05:55. > :05:59.interpretation of Brexit is. They will negotiate, we will negotiate
:06:00. > :06:04.accordingly. I have some sympathy about the letter, the Article 50
:06:05. > :06:08.letter. They agonised over it, so much to get right in terms of
:06:09. > :06:14.balance and tone. It would have been absurd to start mentioning Skegness
:06:15. > :06:22.and everything else. Why not! Skegness, what did they do? It is a
:06:23. > :06:28.real example of how the dynamic now changes. The Spanish royals are
:06:29. > :06:35.going to come here in a couple of months, that could be interesting.
:06:36. > :06:44.It will be good feelings breaking up, I am sure. -- breaking out.
:06:45. > :06:46.So, after a historic week, the UK is now very much
:06:47. > :06:50.But will it be a smooth journey to the exit door?
:06:51. > :06:52.Or can we expect a bit of turbulence?
:06:53. > :06:55.Are you taking back control, Prime Minister?
:06:56. > :06:57.Big days in politics usually involve people shouting
:06:58. > :06:59.and the Prime Minister getting in a car.
:07:00. > :07:02.It is only a few hundred metres from Downing Street to Parliament.
:07:03. > :07:04.But the short journey is the start of a much longer one
:07:05. > :07:09.and we do not know exactly where we will all end up.
:07:10. > :07:12.This is a historic moment from which there can
:07:13. > :07:21.Moments earlier, this Dear John, sorry, Dear Don letter,
:07:22. > :07:24.was delivered by Britain's ambassador in Brussels to the EU
:07:25. > :07:27.He seemed genuinely upset to have been jilted.
:07:28. > :07:32.Back in Westminster, hacks from around the world
:07:33. > :07:35.were trying to work out what it all meant for the
:07:36. > :07:41.So, here it is, a copy of the six-page letter
:07:42. > :07:48.The letter reaffirms the PM's proposal to have talks on the exit
:07:49. > :07:51.deal and a future trade deal at the same time.
:07:52. > :07:53.It also mentioned the word "security" 11 times and stated
:07:54. > :07:55.a failure to reach agreement would mean cooperation
:07:56. > :07:59.in the fight against crime and terrorism would be weakened.
:08:00. > :08:03.Later, our very own Andrew got to ask her what would happen
:08:04. > :08:09.if Britain left the European policing agency, Europol.
:08:10. > :08:13.We would not be able to access information in the same way
:08:14. > :08:16.as we would as a member, so it is important, I think,
:08:17. > :08:18.we are able to negotiate a continuing relationship that
:08:19. > :08:20.enables us to work together in the way that we have.
:08:21. > :08:22.That night, the Brexiteers were happy.
:08:23. > :08:29.We did not have a Mad Hatter, but now we do.
:08:30. > :08:32.Down the street, even the Remainers, having a Mad Hatters' tea party,
:08:33. > :08:41.I am not sure that is actually Boris, though.
:08:42. > :08:56.The next morning, the papers suggested Theresa May would use
:08:57. > :08:56.security as a bargaining tool and threaten to withdraw the UK's
:08:57. > :08:57.cooperation in this area if no deal was struck.
:08:58. > :08:57.Downing Street denied it, as did the Brexit Secretary.
:08:58. > :09:00.We can both cope, but we will both be worse off.
:09:01. > :09:03.That seems to be a statement of fact, it is not a threat,
:09:04. > :09:06.David Davis had other business that morning,
:09:07. > :09:08.introducing the Great Repeal Bill, outling his plans to transfer
:09:09. > :09:11.all EU law into British law to change later,
:09:12. > :09:16.It is not without its critics but the Brexit Secretary said,
:09:17. > :09:18.among other benefits, it would make trade talks easier
:09:19. > :09:25.As we exit the EU and seek a new deep and special partnership
:09:26. > :09:27.with the European Union, we are doing so from a position
:09:28. > :09:29.where we have the same standards and rules.
:09:30. > :09:35.It will also ensure we deliver on our promise to end the supremacy
:09:36. > :09:37.of European Union law in the UK as we exit.
:09:38. > :09:45.There was, though, a small issue with the name.
:09:46. > :09:48.The Government hit an early hurdle with the Great Repeal Bill.
:09:49. > :09:50.Parliamentary draughtsmen said they were not allowed
:09:51. > :09:58.Great(!) so it is just the Repeal Bill.
:09:59. > :10:00.So far, it had been a tale of two cities.
:10:01. > :10:04.By Friday, there was another, Valletta in Malta, where EU leaders
:10:05. > :10:06.were having a meeting and President Tusk, yes, him again,
:10:07. > :10:13.set out draft guidelines for the EU Brexit strategy.
:10:14. > :10:16.Once, and only once, we have achieved sufficient progress
:10:17. > :10:18.on the withdrawal can we discuss the framework for our
:10:19. > :10:22.Starting parallel talks on all issues at the same time,
:10:23. > :10:31.as suggested by some in the UK, will not happen.
:10:32. > :10:35.The EU 27 does not and will not pursue a punitive approach.
:10:36. > :10:42.Brexit in itself is already punitive enough.
:10:43. > :10:45.The pressure on Theresa May to get the Brexit process going has now
:10:46. > :10:47.gone and the stage is being set elsewhere for the showdown
:10:48. > :10:58.But face-to-face discussions are not likely to happen
:10:59. > :11:04.Before May or early June. No one is celebrating just yet.
:11:05. > :11:06.We're joined now from Kent by the former Conservative
:11:07. > :11:13.The EU says it will not talk about a future relationship with the UK
:11:14. > :11:17.until there has been sufficient progress on agreeing the divorce
:11:18. > :11:26.bill. Should the UK agree to this phased approach? Well, I think you
:11:27. > :11:32.can make too much about the sequence and timing of the negotiations. I
:11:33. > :11:36.assume that it will be a case of nothing is agreed until everything
:11:37. > :11:39.is agreed and so any agreements that might be reached on things talked
:11:40. > :11:46.about early on will be very provisional, so I think you can make
:11:47. > :11:50.a big deal about the timing and the sequence when I do not think it
:11:51. > :11:54.really matters as much as all that. Don't people have a right in this
:11:55. > :11:59.country to be surprised of the talk of a massive multi-billion pound
:12:00. > :12:05.divorce settlement? I do not remember either side making much of
:12:06. > :12:10.this in the referendum, do you? No. A select committee of the House of
:12:11. > :12:15.Lords recently reported and said that there was no legal basis for
:12:16. > :12:23.any exit fee. We will have to see how the negotiations go. I think
:12:24. > :12:25.some of the figures cited so far are wildly out of kilter and wildly
:12:26. > :12:31.unrealistic. We will have to see what happens in the negotiations. As
:12:32. > :12:36.one of your panel commented earlier, there will be lots of hares to
:12:37. > :12:40.pursue over the next couple of years and we should not get too excited
:12:41. > :12:46.about any of them. Would you accept that we make... It may not be
:12:47. > :12:50.anything like the figures Brussels is kicking around of 50, 60 billion
:12:51. > :12:59.euros, do you think we will have to make a one-off settlement? If we get
:13:00. > :13:05.everything else we want, if we get a really good trade deal and access
:13:06. > :13:09.for the City of London and so on, speaking for myself, I would be
:13:10. > :13:18.prepared to make a modest payment. But it all depends on the deal we
:13:19. > :13:22.get. What would modest be? Oh, I cannot give you a figure. We are
:13:23. > :13:26.right at the start of the negotiations. I do not think that
:13:27. > :13:32.would be agreed until near the end. The EU says that if there is a
:13:33. > :13:36.transition period of several years after the negotiations, and there is
:13:37. > :13:41.more talk of that, the UK must remain subject to the free movement
:13:42. > :13:46.of peoples and the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, would
:13:47. > :13:50.that be acceptable to you? It depends on the nature of the
:13:51. > :13:56.transitional agreement. We are getting well ahead of ourselves
:13:57. > :14:00.here. You cannot, I think, for any judgment as to whether there should
:14:01. > :14:03.be a transitional stage until you know what the final deal is. If
:14:04. > :14:09.there is to be a final deal. And then you know how long it might take
:14:10. > :14:15.to implement that deal. That is something I think that it is really
:14:16. > :14:19.rather futile to talk about at this stage. It may become relevant,
:14:20. > :14:24.depending on the nature of the deal, and that is the proper time to talk
:14:25. > :14:29.about it and decide what the answer to the questions you pose might be.
:14:30. > :14:35.Except the EU has laid this out in its negotiation mandate and it is
:14:36. > :14:40.reasonable to ask people like yourself, should we accept that? It
:14:41. > :14:44.is reasonable for me to say, they will raise all sorts of things in
:14:45. > :14:48.their negotiating mandate and we do not need to form a view of all of
:14:49. > :14:52.them at this stage. Let me try another one. The EU says if they do
:14:53. > :14:56.agree what you have called a comprehensive free trade deal, we
:14:57. > :15:00.would have to accept EU constraints on state aid and taxes like VAT and
:15:01. > :15:09.corporation tax. Would you accept that? Again, I am not sure quite
:15:10. > :15:13.what they have in mind on that. We will be an independent country when
:15:14. > :15:21.we leave and we will make our own decisions about those matters. Not
:15:22. > :15:27.according to know that -- to the negotiating mandate. As I have said,
:15:28. > :15:30.they can put all sorts of things in the negotiating guidelines, it does
:15:31. > :15:36.not mean we have to agree with them. No doubt that is something we can
:15:37. > :15:40.discuss in the context of a free trade agreement. If we get a free
:15:41. > :15:43.trade agreement, that is very important for them as well as for
:15:44. > :15:51.us, and we can talk about some of the things you have just mentioned.
:15:52. > :15:59.Can you please leave a 20 without having repatriated full control of
:16:00. > :16:03.migration, taxis and the law? I think we will have repatriated all
:16:04. > :16:10.three of those things by the time of the next general election. How high
:16:11. > :16:16.would you rate the chances of no deal, and does that prospect worry
:16:17. > :16:20.you? I think the chances are we will get the deal, and I think the
:16:21. > :16:25.chances are we will get a good deal, because that is in the interests of
:16:26. > :16:32.both sides of this negotiation. But it is not the end of the world if we
:16:33. > :16:36.do not get a deal. Most trade in the world is carried out under World
:16:37. > :16:41.Trade Organisation rules. We would be perfectly OK if we traded with
:16:42. > :16:45.the European Union, as with everybody else, under World Trade
:16:46. > :16:49.Organisation rules. It is better to get the deal, and I think we will
:16:50. > :16:54.get the deal, because it is in the interests of both. Let me ask you
:16:55. > :16:58.about Gibraltar. You have campaigned in Gibraltar when the sovereignty
:16:59. > :17:04.issue came up under the Tony Blair government. The EU says that Spain
:17:05. > :17:08.should have a veto on whether any free-trade deal should apply to the
:17:09. > :17:13.Rock. How should the British government replied to that? As it
:17:14. > :17:20.has responded, by making it absolutely clear that we will stand
:17:21. > :17:24.by Gibraltar. 35 years ago this week, Andrew, another woman Prime
:17:25. > :17:28.Minister Centre task force is halfway across the world to protect
:17:29. > :17:32.another small group of British people against another
:17:33. > :17:37.Spanish-speaking country. I am absolutely clear that our current
:17:38. > :17:49.woman Prime Minister will show the same resolve in relation to
:17:50. > :17:51.Gibraltar as her predecessor did. This is not about Spain invading
:17:52. > :17:53.Gibraltar, it is not even about sovereignty, it is about Spain
:17:54. > :17:56.having a veto over whether any free-trade deal that the UK makes
:17:57. > :18:03.with the EU should also apply to Gibraltar. On that issue, how should
:18:04. > :18:06.the British government respond? The British government should show
:18:07. > :18:11.resolve. It is not in the interests of Spain, really, to interfere with
:18:12. > :18:16.free trade to Gibraltar. 10,000 people who live in Spain working
:18:17. > :18:21.Gibraltar. That is a very important Spanish interest, so I am very
:18:22. > :18:26.confident that in the end, we will be able to look after all the
:18:27. > :18:29.interests of Gibraltar, including free trade. Michael Howard, thank
:18:30. > :18:32.you for joining us from Kent this morning.
:18:33. > :18:34.Although sometimes it seems like everyone has forgotten,
:18:35. > :18:36.there are things happening other than Brexit.
:18:37. > :18:39.In less than five weeks' time, there will be a round of important
:18:40. > :18:42.domestic elections and there's a lot up for grabs.
:18:43. > :18:45.Local elections take place on the 4th of May in England,
:18:46. > :18:50.In England, there are elections in 34 councils, with 2,370
:18:51. > :18:56.The majority are county councils, usually areas of strength
:18:57. > :19:03.Large cities where Labour usually fares better are not
:19:04. > :19:07.Six regions of England will also hold elections for newly created
:19:08. > :19:10.combined authority mayors, and there will be contests
:19:11. > :19:16.for directly elected mayors, with voters in Manchester,
:19:17. > :19:19.Liverpool and the West Midlands among those going to the polls.
:19:20. > :19:22.In Scotland, every seat in all 32 councils are being contested,
:19:23. > :19:24.many of them affected by boundary changes.
:19:25. > :19:27.Since these seats were last contested, Labour lost all but one
:19:28. > :19:32.Meanwhile, every seat in each of Wales' 22 councils
:19:33. > :19:39.All but one was last elected in 2012 in what was a very
:19:40. > :19:40.strong year for Labour, though independent
:19:41. > :19:43.candidates currently hold a quarter of council seats.
:19:44. > :19:44.According to the latest calculations by Plymouth
:19:45. > :19:50.University Election Centre, the Tories are predicted
:19:51. > :19:52.to increase their tally by 50 seats, despite being in government,
:19:53. > :19:59.But the dramatic story in England looks to be with the other parties,
:20:00. > :20:01.with the Lib-Dems possibly winning 100 seats, while Ukip
:20:02. > :20:07.could be seeing a fall, predicted to lose 100 seats.
:20:08. > :20:09.Though the proportional system usually makes big changes
:20:10. > :20:12.less likely in Scotland, the SNP is predicted to increase
:20:13. > :20:14.both the number of seats they hold, and the number
:20:15. > :20:23.In Wales, Labour is defending a high water mark in support.
:20:24. > :20:26.Last year's Welsh Assembly elections suggest the only way is down,
:20:27. > :20:28.with all the parties making modest gains at Labour's expense.
:20:29. > :20:31.Joining me now is the BBC's very own elections guru,
:20:32. > :20:34.Professor John Curtice of the University of Strathclyde.
:20:35. > :20:41.Good to see you again. Let's start with England. How bad are the
:20:42. > :20:46.selection is going to be for Labour? Labourer not defending a great deal
:20:47. > :20:49.because this is for the most part rural England. The only control
:20:50. > :20:53.three of the council they are defending and they are only
:20:54. > :20:58.defending around 500 seats, I nearly a quarter are in one county, Durham.
:20:59. > :21:01.Labour's position in the opinion polls is weakened over the last 12
:21:02. > :21:14.months and if you compare the position in the opinion polls now
:21:15. > :21:17.with where they were in the spring of 2013 when these seats in England
:21:18. > :21:19.were last fought, we are talking about a 12 point swing from Labour
:21:20. > :21:22.to conservative. The estimate of 50 losses may be somewhat optimistic
:21:23. > :21:26.for Labour. Of the three council areas they control, two of them,
:21:27. > :21:30.Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire, could be lost, leaving labourer with
:21:31. > :21:34.virtually a duck as far as council control is concerned in these
:21:35. > :21:38.elections in England. In England, what would a Liberal Democrat
:21:39. > :21:42.reserve urgently great? That is the big question. We have had this
:21:43. > :21:46.picture since the EU referendum of the Liberal Democrats doing
:21:47. > :21:54.extraordinarily well in some local by-elections, gaining seats that
:21:55. > :21:57.they had not even fought before, and in other areas, doing no more than
:21:58. > :21:59.treading water. We are expecting a Liberal Democrat skin because the
:22:00. > :22:03.lost the lot -- the lost lots of ground when they were in coalition
:22:04. > :22:07.with the Conservatives. It is uncertain. A patchy performance may
:22:08. > :22:11.well be to their advantage. If they do well in some places and gain
:22:12. > :22:14.seats, and elsewhere do not do terribly well and do not waste
:22:15. > :22:19.votes, they may end up doing relatively well in seats, even if
:22:20. > :22:21.the overall gaining votes is likely to be modest. The elections for
:22:22. > :22:55.mayors, they are taking place in the Labour will that be a hefty
:22:56. > :22:57.consolation prize for the Labour Party? It ought to be, on Teesside,
:22:58. > :22:59.Merseyside, Greater Manchester. We are looking at one content very
:23:00. > :23:02.closely, that is the contest for the mayor of the West Midlands. If you
:23:03. > :23:05.look at what happened in the general election in 2015, labourer work nine
:23:06. > :23:07.points ahead of the Conservatives in the West Midlands. If you look at
:23:08. > :23:10.the swing since the general election, if you add that swing to
:23:11. > :23:13.where we were two years ago, the West Midlands now looks like a draw.
:23:14. > :23:15.Labour have to worry about a headline grabbing loss, and the West
:23:16. > :23:17.Midlands contest. If they were to lose, that wooden crate -- that
:23:18. > :23:21.would increase the pressure for their own Jeremy Corbyn to convince
:23:22. > :23:25.people that they can turn his party's fortunes around, and in
:23:26. > :23:29.truth at the moment, they are pretty dire. The West Midlands has
:23:30. > :23:35.Birmingham as its heart. Chock-a-block with marginal seats.
:23:36. > :23:39.It always has been. I always remember election night and marginal
:23:40. > :23:46.seats in the West Midlands. Scotland, the SNP is assaulting
:23:47. > :23:52.Labour's last remaining power base. The biggest prizes Glasgow. Will it
:23:53. > :23:57.take it, the SNP? Whether the SNP will gain control of Glasgow is
:23:58. > :24:01.uncertain. If you look at what is happening in local government
:24:02. > :24:06.by-elections let alone the opinion polls, in 2012, when these seats
:24:07. > :24:10.were last fought, Labour did relatively well, only one percentage
:24:11. > :24:14.point behind the SNP who were rather disappointed with the result
:24:15. > :24:23.compared to other elections. No sign of that happening this time alone --
:24:24. > :24:25.this time around. Polls put the SNP ahead. By-elections have found the
:24:26. > :24:28.SNP advancing and Labour dropping by double digits. Labour are going to
:24:29. > :24:32.lose everything they currently control in Scotland, the SNP will
:24:33. > :24:37.become the dominant party, the question is how well they do. In
:24:38. > :24:41.Scotland there is a Conservative revival going on. The Conservatives
:24:42. > :24:45.did well in recent local government by-elections. At the moment, Labour
:24:46. > :24:53.are expected to come third north of the border in the local elections,
:24:54. > :24:55.repeating the third they suffered in the Holyrood elections last year. In
:24:56. > :25:01.Wales, Labour is expecting to lose control of a number of councils.
:25:02. > :25:05.They are the main party in 12 of 22 local authorities. How bad could it
:25:06. > :25:09.be? We're expecting Labour to lose ground. In the opinion polls when
:25:10. > :25:15.these seats were last fought, labourer in the high 40s. Now they
:25:16. > :25:20.are not much above 30%. Cardiff could well join Glasgow was no
:25:21. > :25:25.longer being a Labour stronghold. Look out for Newport. Some of the
:25:26. > :25:39.South Wales councils that Labour control, Labour is
:25:40. > :25:42.probably too but occasionally, Plaid Cymru surprises in this area. They
:25:43. > :25:44.managed to win the Rhondda seat in the assembly elections. Jeremy
:25:45. > :25:46.Corbyn has said he wants to be judged on proper elections, council
:25:47. > :25:49.elections as opposed to opinion polls, but even if he does as badly
:25:50. > :25:56.as John has been suggesting, does it affect his leadership? I think it
:25:57. > :25:59.does on two counts. It will affect his own confidence. Anyone who is a
:26:00. > :26:03.human being will be affected by this. He might go into his office
:26:04. > :26:08.and be told by John McDonnell and others, stand firm, it is all right,
:26:09. > :26:15.but it will affect his confidence and inevitably it contributes to a
:26:16. > :26:19.sense that this is moving to some kind of denoument, at some point. In
:26:20. > :26:26.other words, while I understand the argument that he has won twice in a
:26:27. > :26:31.leadership contest, well, within 12 months, I wonder whether this can
:26:32. > :26:37.carry on in a fixed term parliament, up until 2020, if it were to do so.
:26:38. > :26:42.On two France, it will have some impact. I am not seeing it will lead
:26:43. > :26:46.to his immediate departure, it will mark, but if these things are as
:26:47. > :26:54.devastating as John suggests, it will have an impact. Tom, I'll be
:26:55. > :26:58.looking at a Lib Dem fightback? That is the $64,000 question. It would
:26:59. > :27:03.seem that we should be. One massive reason we're not having a general
:27:04. > :27:06.election a time soon, apart from the fact that Theresa May does not
:27:07. > :27:12.believe in these things, she believes in pressing on, it is
:27:13. > :27:14.because Tory MPs in the South West who took the Lib Dem seats, they
:27:15. > :27:18.were telling Number 10 they were worried they were going to lose
:27:19. > :27:22.their seats back to the Lib Dems. The Lib Dems never went away and
:27:23. > :27:26.local government. They have got other campaigners and activists. It
:27:27. > :27:31.looks credible that they will be the success story of the whole thing.
:27:32. > :27:36.Ukip leader, Paul Nuttall, he says this will be the most difficult
:27:37. > :27:42.local elections his party will face before 2020. A bit of management of
:27:43. > :27:48.expectations. It is unlikely to be a good time for Ukip. They are right
:27:49. > :27:50.to manage expectations. The results will be horrible for Ukip. I agree
:27:51. > :28:13.with Tom about the Lib Dem threat to the Tories. Talking to
:28:14. > :28:15.some senior figures within the Tory party earlier this week, I was
:28:16. > :28:17.picking up that they are worried about 30-40 general election seeds
:28:18. > :28:20.being vulnerable to the Lib Dems because of the Labour collapse. I
:28:21. > :28:21.would normally agree with Steve about the resilience of politicians,
:28:22. > :28:24.the capability of withstanding repeated blows, but Jeremy Corbyn is
:28:25. > :28:27.not in the normal category. I think he is, in the sense that although he
:28:28. > :28:30.get solace from winning leadership contest, anyone who leads a party
:28:31. > :28:35.into the kind of, it is not going to be that vivid, because they are not
:28:36. > :28:42.defending the key seats. If they were to win Birmingham, say, and get
:28:43. > :28:45.slaughtered by the SNP in Scotland, it will undermine what is already a
:28:46. > :28:47.fairly ambiguous sense of self-confidence. We need to leave it
:28:48. > :28:50.there. Thank you, John Curtice. Well, with those elections
:28:51. > :28:53.on the horizon, is Labour where it Former leader Ed Miliband
:28:54. > :28:56.was on the Andrew Marr Show earlier and he explained
:28:57. > :28:58.the challenge Labour faces It is easier for other parties,
:28:59. > :29:03.if you are the Greens or the Liberal Democrats you're essentially
:29:04. > :29:05.fishing in the 48% pool. If you are Ukip, you are
:29:06. > :29:09.fishing in the 52% pool. Labour is trying to do
:29:10. > :29:11.something much harder, which is to try and speak
:29:12. > :29:13.for the whole country, and by the way, that is another part
:29:14. > :29:16.of Our attack on Theresa May,
:29:17. > :29:20.part of it is she's Ignoring the verdict
:29:21. > :29:26.going into this, saying, let's overturn it, looks
:29:27. > :29:28.like ignoring the 52%. By the way, there is more
:29:29. > :29:34.that unites Remainers and Leavers than might first appear,
:29:35. > :29:36.because they share common concerns about the way
:29:37. > :29:41.the country is run. Joining me now is the Shadow Health
:29:42. > :29:49.Secretary, Jon Ashworth. Welcome to the programme. Alastair
:29:50. > :29:54.Campbell told me on the BBC on Thursday that he is fighting to
:29:55. > :29:58.reverse the referendum result. Ed Miliband says that Remain needs to
:29:59. > :30:04.accept the result, come to terms with it. Who is right? We have to
:30:05. > :30:09.accept the referendum result. I campaigned passionately to remain in
:30:10. > :30:13.the European Union. The city I represent, Leicester, voted narrowly
:30:14. > :30:17.to remain in the European Union. Sadly the country did not. We cannot
:30:18. > :30:23.overturn that and be like kinky nude, trying to demand the tide go
:30:24. > :30:27.back out. We have to accept this democratic process. We all voted to
:30:28. > :30:34.have a referendum when the relevant legislation came to Parliament. How
:30:35. > :30:45.bad will the local elections before Labour? Let us see where we get to
:30:46. > :30:50.on election night when I am sure I will be invited on to one of these
:30:51. > :30:58.types of programmes... The election date, the following day. But it does
:30:59. > :31:02.look like you will lose seats across the board in England, Scotland and
:31:03. > :31:08.Wales. What did you make of what Steve Richards said about the impact
:31:09. > :31:12.on Jeremy Corbyn's leadership? We have to win seats, we cannot fall
:31:13. > :31:20.back on the scales suggested. No, your package was right, it tends to
:31:21. > :31:25.be Tory areas, but generally, we have to be winning in
:31:26. > :31:29.Nottinghamshire, Lancashire, those types of places because they contain
:31:30. > :31:33.a lot of the marginal constituencies that decide general elections. The
:31:34. > :31:39.important places in the elections are towns like Beeston, towns you
:31:40. > :31:45.have not heard of, but they are marginal towns in marginal swing
:31:46. > :31:50.constituencies. We have to do well in them. We will see where we are on
:31:51. > :31:56.election night but my pretty is to campaign hard in these areas over
:31:57. > :32:01.the next few weeks. Even people who voted Labour in 2015, they prefer
:32:02. > :32:06.Theresa May to Mr Corbyn as Prime Minister, a recent poll said. Isn't
:32:07. > :32:16.that extraordinary? I have not seen that. I will look it up. It was you
:32:17. > :32:20.Government. -- YouGov. It is important we win the trust of
:32:21. > :32:25.people. You are not winning the trust of people who voted for you in
:32:26. > :32:30.2015. We have to hold onto people who voted for us in 2015 and we have
:32:31. > :32:34.to persuade people who voted for other parties to come to us. One of
:32:35. > :32:40.the criticisms I have of the debate that goes on in the wider Labour
:32:41. > :32:43.Party, do not misunderstand me, I am not making a criticism about an
:32:44. > :32:48.individual, but the debate you see online suggests that if you want to
:32:49. > :32:53.get people who voted Conservative to switch to Labour it is somehow a
:32:54. > :33:00.betrayal of our principles, it was not. Justin Trudeau said
:33:01. > :33:06.Conservative voters are our neighbours, our relatives. We have
:33:07. > :33:12.to persuade people to switch from voting Conservative to voting Labour
:33:13. > :33:17.as well as increasing our vote among nonvoters and Greens. It seems like
:33:18. > :33:20.you have a mountain to climb and the mountain is Everest. Another poll, I
:33:21. > :33:31.am not sure if you have seen this, in London, the Bastian of Labour,
:33:32. > :33:36.the Bastian of Remain, Mr Corbyn is less popular than even Ukip's Paul
:33:37. > :33:43.Nuttall. That is beyond extraordinary! I do not know about
:33:44. > :33:49.that. The most recent set of elections in London was the mayoral
:33:50. > :33:54.election where the Labour candidate city: won handsomely. He took the
:33:55. > :34:04.seat of a conservative. We took that of a conservative. It was a year
:34:05. > :34:10.ago. We did well then. You had an anti-Jeremy Corbyn candidate. I
:34:11. > :34:15.think he nominated Jeremy Corbyn, from memory. We have not got
:34:16. > :34:23.elections in London but our elections are in the county areas
:34:24. > :34:29.and the various mayoral elections... What about the West Midlands? In any
:34:30. > :34:34.normal year, mid-term, as the opposition, Labour should win the
:34:35. > :34:40.West Midlands. John Curtis says it is nip and tuck. It has always been
:34:41. > :34:43.a swing region but we want to do well, of course. We want to turn out
:34:44. > :34:49.a strong Labour vote in Dudley, Northampton, those sorts of places.
:34:50. > :34:56.They are key constituencies in the general election. Does Labour look
:34:57. > :35:01.like a government in waiting to you? What I would say is contrast where
:35:02. > :35:07.we are to what the conservative garment is doing. I asked you about
:35:08. > :35:10.Labour, you do not get to tell me about the Conservatives. Does it
:35:11. > :35:14.look like a government in waiting to you? Today we are exposing the
:35:15. > :35:20.Conservatives... Reminding people the Conservatives are breaking the
:35:21. > :35:24.pledge on waiting times of 18 weeks so lots of elderly people waiting
:35:25. > :35:30.longer in pain for hip replacements and cataract replacements. Yesterday
:35:31. > :35:35.the Housing spokesperson John Healey was exposing the shortcomings in the
:35:36. > :35:39.Help to Buy scheme. The education spokesperson has been campaigning
:35:40. > :35:42.hard against the cuts to schools. Tom Watson has been campaigning hard
:35:43. > :35:47.against some of the changes the Government want to introduce in
:35:48. > :35:51.culture. The Shadow Cabinet are working hard to hold the
:35:52. > :35:56.Government's feet to the fire. Does it look like a government in
:35:57. > :36:02.waiting? Yes. It took you three times! There is a social care
:36:03. > :36:07.crisis, schools funding issue, a huge issue for lots of areas, the
:36:08. > :36:13.NHS has just got through the winter and is abandoning many of its
:36:14. > :36:20.targets. You are 18 points behind in the polls. We have to work harder.
:36:21. > :36:24.What can you do? The opinion polls are challenging but we are a great
:36:25. > :36:29.Social Democratic Party of government. On Twitter today, lots
:36:30. > :36:34.of Labour activists celebrating that the national minimum wage has been
:36:35. > :36:38.in place for something like 16 years because we were in government. Look
:36:39. > :36:42.of the sweeping progressive changes this country has benefited from, the
:36:43. > :36:46.NHS, sure start centres, an assault on child poverty, the Labour Party
:36:47. > :36:53.got itself in contention for government. I entirely accept the
:36:54. > :36:57.polls do not make thrilling reading for Labour politicians on Sunday
:36:58. > :37:00.morning, but it means people like me have to work harder because we are
:37:01. > :37:03.part of something bigger than an individual, we are in the business
:37:04. > :37:07.of changing things for the British people and if we do not do that, if
:37:08. > :37:12.we do not focus on that, we are letting people down. Is Labour
:37:13. > :37:19.preparing for an early election question Billy burqa? Reports in the
:37:20. > :37:25.press of a war chest as macro for an early election? The general election
:37:26. > :37:28.coordinator called for a general election when Theresa May became
:37:29. > :37:34.Prime Minister. We are investing in staff and the organisational
:37:35. > :37:38.capability we need. By the way, the Labour Party staff do brilliant
:37:39. > :37:42.work. A bit of nonsense on Twitter having a go at them. They do
:37:43. > :37:43.tremendous work. Whenever the election comes, they will be ready.
:37:44. > :37:52.Jon Ashworth, thank you. We say goodbye to viewers
:37:53. > :37:56.in Scotland who leave us now Coming up here in 20
:37:57. > :38:00.minutes, the Week Ahead. First though, the Sunday
:38:01. > :38:05.Politics where you are. To dissect the potential impact
:38:06. > :38:10.of Brexit on the capital, For remain, Neil Coyle, Labour MP
:38:11. > :38:17.for Bermondsey and Old Southwark. And Andrew Rossendale,
:38:18. > :38:19.Conservative MP for Romford What we are going to do first off
:38:20. > :38:27.is hear from Neil and Andrew, They have been reflecting on the
:38:28. > :38:31.future for their constituents, each reporting from their own patch
:38:32. > :38:34.on Wednesday, the day Welcome to Romford and to
:38:35. > :38:46.Margaret Thatcher House. This was the heart of our campaign
:38:47. > :38:52.last June as Romford and Havering voted 70% to leave
:38:53. > :38:55.the European Union. There is a feeling of contentment
:38:56. > :38:59.that we are back in the driving seat and that is why people around
:39:00. > :39:01.here voted to leave. It was actually, I think,
:39:02. > :39:06.more about sovereignty. We don't like what being
:39:07. > :39:13.being told what to do. With ourselves and the Tories
:39:14. > :39:16.and Ukip, we all work together in Havering to make this possible
:39:17. > :39:19.and we did all work together. Members of six political parties
:39:20. > :39:23.here in this borough worked together to achieve that great victory,
:39:24. > :39:27.and so, this week, it is a fantastic celebration, not only
:39:28. > :39:30.for what we achieved here in Havering but for the great
:39:31. > :39:33.decision of the British people to take back control of our country
:39:34. > :39:38.and to leave the European Union. It's a wonderful day to celebrate
:39:39. > :39:48.a wonderful occasion. So, this week we celebrate
:39:49. > :39:51.the triggering of Article 50, the beginning of the restoration
:39:52. > :39:55.of our freedom as a nation, the rights of the British people
:39:56. > :39:58.to make their own decisions As a Labour MP, I am sickened to see
:39:59. > :40:12.people celebrating uncertainty caused by Theresa May's
:40:13. > :40:16.actions this week. Bermondsey and Old Southwark,
:40:17. > :40:19.many businesses have been in touch with me to outline their concerns
:40:20. > :40:21.about leaving the European Union. I think the biggest issue
:40:22. > :40:24.is the uncertainty of it. We seem to be going into
:40:25. > :40:31.this whole new arena. The traders that talk to me say,
:40:32. > :40:34.what is going to happen next? What is going to be
:40:35. > :40:42.the restrictions on what we can do? We are here at Brindisa
:40:43. > :40:45.at Borough Market. Brindisa is a Spanish food
:40:46. > :40:49.specialist, contributing to the vibrant, creative food
:40:50. > :40:51.and drinks sector we have, But a sector that is very worried
:40:52. > :40:56.about the falling pound. Further devaluation
:40:57. > :41:00.of the pound would obviously I think we will have
:41:01. > :41:08.to look at other costs that might come into play,
:41:09. > :41:14.such as legislation. The impact goes far,
:41:15. > :41:19.far beyond just businesses. Universities losing access
:41:20. > :41:20.to EU research funding British students could pay
:41:21. > :41:24.more because of leaving The health and social care sector
:41:25. > :41:28.in crisis but reliant The Government need to get real
:41:29. > :41:32.and stop being dishonest Neil, are you going to be able
:41:33. > :41:40.to find any kind of peace It is happening, but as I said
:41:41. > :41:46.in the piece, the Government is not being honest with people
:41:47. > :41:49.about the costs and consequences of what is happening and the dangers
:41:50. > :41:53.and risks ahead of not having a deal in place in two years and to see
:41:54. > :41:57.the UK Government using security as a bargaining chip in these
:41:58. > :42:01.negotiations is frankly sickening. The idea that we would not support
:42:02. > :42:04.another French or German government, whoever it might be,
:42:05. > :42:06.to avoid a terrorist We will come onto the security
:42:07. > :42:10.a little bit later. The wider point, not
:42:11. > :42:14.being honest, what do you say? I don't know where Neil
:42:15. > :42:17.is getting this from. The Prime Minister has made it very
:42:18. > :42:20.clear that we are going to get the best possible agreement
:42:21. > :42:22.with our friends, our That means trade, corporation
:42:23. > :42:27.and it means security. Most countries in the world have
:42:28. > :42:30.sensible bilateral arrangements. We are just as capable of having
:42:31. > :42:33.a sensible arrangement with Europe What we are not going to be part
:42:34. > :42:39.of and what the British people voted clearly against is to be
:42:40. > :42:41.in a political union, It does not mean we cannot
:42:42. > :42:46.still work with our friends on the continent and have
:42:47. > :42:52.sensible bilateral cooperation. Celebration there, but what thought
:42:53. > :42:54.do you give to the majority, the very big majority,
:42:55. > :42:56.in your capital city, I think again we have
:42:57. > :43:02.to look to the future. The British people
:43:03. > :43:05.voted to leave the EU. Most of us who respect democracy
:43:06. > :43:11.voted overwhelmingly in Parliament to invoke Article 50 and give
:43:12. > :43:16.the Prime Minister the ability to get on with the job and get
:43:17. > :43:19.the best possible arrangements The important thing now is surely
:43:20. > :43:30.to rally around and ensure there is a confident
:43:31. > :43:32.negotiating position The idea that this is a vote
:43:33. > :43:38.against a political union when you have seen businesses
:43:39. > :43:41.who are saying, they don't know of exporting will be,
:43:42. > :43:46.they don't know what the costs They have seen a drop in the pound
:43:47. > :43:50.already damaging their business, damaging their ability to invest
:43:51. > :43:52.in further jobs. People are losing their jobs
:43:53. > :43:54.right now as a result of what is going on and to see
:43:55. > :43:57.people celebrating is... You make it sound as if
:43:58. > :43:59.the economy has bombed. In my constituency, I can tell
:44:00. > :44:03.you there are businesses who haven't The financial sector
:44:04. > :44:08.is moving jobs out of London. The biscuit factory
:44:09. > :44:10.in Wigan closed, blaming... The idea that the economy has gone
:44:11. > :44:16.on as before is simply not true. As you enjoy your Italian
:44:17. > :44:18.prosecco, was it? As you enjoy your prosecco,
:44:19. > :44:23.what thought will you give Will you not be looking
:44:24. > :44:27.for the signs or will you be in denial if businesses in your area
:44:28. > :44:30.start going belly up? I want sovereignty restored
:44:31. > :44:33.to the British people. Of course, any political change,
:44:34. > :44:37.anything like this, you can have a Jeremy Corbyn government,
:44:38. > :44:42.there would be a big drop in the pound then,
:44:43. > :44:44.anything like that can Once we have adjusted, there may be
:44:45. > :44:51.ups and downs, bumps in the road. Yes, the pound has fallen,
:44:52. > :44:54.but I think that was necessary Long-term, it is in our interests
:44:55. > :44:57.to take back control Hang on a second, let's move on,
:44:58. > :45:04.that word, take back control, What should happen to immigration
:45:05. > :45:08.levels in the capital? On his way back from Paris this
:45:09. > :45:11.week, this is what the mayor, You say you want it,
:45:12. > :45:22.we have been getting 30,000 odd Europeans in every year over
:45:23. > :45:24.the last ten years, do you want to see that
:45:25. > :45:27.figure go up or go down? I want to make sure we can meet
:45:28. > :45:29.the needs of London. That means, obviously,
:45:30. > :45:31.skilling up Londoners to have the skills for the jobs
:45:32. > :45:34.we create in construction or tech or financial services,
:45:35. > :45:36.but also recognising that one of the reasons why we are
:45:37. > :45:39.the greatest city in the world Those industries are all saying
:45:40. > :45:43.they want more people, so you happy for that number to go
:45:44. > :45:46.up above 30,000 a year I will give you one simple
:45:47. > :45:53.example in construction. We have, roughly speaking, 300,000
:45:54. > :45:55.construction workers in London. Of those half, between 10
:45:56. > :46:01.and 20% are going to Even if we were to skill
:46:02. > :46:05.up our youngsters to have these jobs in construction we cannot
:46:06. > :46:08.fill these vacancies. So you are happy for the immigration
:46:09. > :46:10.level in London to go We have got to have a flexible
:46:11. > :46:17.immigration system that recognises London's needs,
:46:18. > :46:19.not just in construction, but in tech, in culture,
:46:20. > :46:21.in finance and other Do you understand that people
:46:22. > :46:25.will have less confidence in whether you're going to provide
:46:26. > :46:28.a decent deal if you will not say whether you want more
:46:29. > :46:30.or less immigration? No, they won't, because they voted
:46:31. > :46:33.to stay in the EU, because they recognise
:46:34. > :46:34.the contribution talent We have got one million Londoners,
:46:35. > :46:39.for example, they are Londoners who are EU citizens,
:46:40. > :46:43.contributing hugely to our economy. Andrew, you said something
:46:44. > :46:45.about it in the film, but people, if you are honest,
:46:46. > :46:48.voted a lot on immigration Well, I think that the idea that
:46:49. > :46:53.Britain cannot control its immigration policy,
:46:54. > :46:56.yes, they did not like that idea. They wanted to see an immigration
:46:57. > :47:06.policy which is sensible, beneficial to Britain, welcomes
:47:07. > :47:08.people that are here to work, but not one which gives preferential
:47:09. > :47:11.treatment to European citizens while Commonwealth citizens
:47:12. > :47:13.are prevented from coming in. Those constituents are economically
:47:14. > :47:17.illiterate if you listen This country has always
:47:18. > :47:24.had immigration. But we have given up control of how
:47:25. > :47:27.we manage that immigration We are bringing back control
:47:28. > :47:34.of immigration policy and borders. That is what the
:47:35. > :47:36.British people want. You would have a system
:47:37. > :47:39.where you treated EU residents You need a fair system where
:47:40. > :47:43.everyone is treated on their merit, not on their nationality,
:47:44. > :47:45.but what they can It should be a fair
:47:46. > :47:48.and equal system. Leaving all the skills shortages
:47:49. > :47:51.in areas such as construction to cleaning hospitals,
:47:52. > :47:53.where you do not have the staff. We have always needed that
:47:54. > :47:58.kind of immigration. It means if you are coming into work
:47:59. > :48:05.in the United Kingdom, you have to go through the same
:48:06. > :48:08.process, so an Austrian has to go through the same
:48:09. > :48:10.process as an Australian. The Mayor of London seems to have
:48:11. > :48:16.that difficulty saying he would not mind it going up if that happened,
:48:17. > :48:19.if the economy expanded The idea that we need some kind
:48:20. > :48:25.of artificial number is nonsense. What Sadiq is saying,
:48:26. > :48:28.and the poll showed that the vast majority of Londoners
:48:29. > :48:30.back his agenda for London and the support he has
:48:31. > :48:33.offered to business, and if we need people
:48:34. > :48:36.to come in to take on jobs that are available, why
:48:37. > :48:39.would we want to stop that? Why would we want to stop people
:48:40. > :48:43.coming, paying and contributing? The idea that we are taking back
:48:44. > :48:46.control somehow is utter nonsense. The government has the right
:48:47. > :48:50.to remove people from EU countries who have been here for three months
:48:51. > :48:53.if they are not working and unable 300,000 EU citizens have come over
:48:54. > :49:05.here over in the last Are you happy for that annual
:49:06. > :49:09.figure, or over the next ten years, Are you happy, if we need it
:49:10. > :49:13.for immigration, to go up? My concern with the number
:49:14. > :49:16.is the pressure on public services. When people talk about immigration
:49:17. > :49:19.in the context of the referendum, we need to factor in the fact it
:49:20. > :49:22.became a proxy, because the Conservatives and the Lib Dems
:49:23. > :49:24.before squeezed public services, That pressure on services
:49:25. > :49:30.is what concerns people. If you get investment in public
:49:31. > :49:35.services, would you then say If it is linked to taking on jobs
:49:36. > :49:40.and contributing to our economy, why would we not want
:49:41. > :49:42.to welcome that? Among the areas where the mayor
:49:43. > :49:46.expressed particular concern during his three days in Europe
:49:47. > :49:49.was security co-operation. That is our man in Brussels,
:49:50. > :49:53.formally notifying the EU of Britain's decision to leave,
:49:54. > :49:56.but who else was in town this week? The Mayor of London on his European
:49:57. > :49:59.tour, cut short after last He was meeting with the Mayors
:50:00. > :50:05.of Paris and Brussels, both cities also targeted in recent
:50:06. > :50:07.years by terrorists. We are together, we will face
:50:08. > :50:18.together the crazy situation that happened in Brussels last year,
:50:19. > :50:23.and in London this year. Sadiq Khan emphasised
:50:24. > :50:25.the EU's contribution It has made us safer
:50:26. > :50:31.through cross-border policing, European arrest warrants,
:50:32. > :50:34.intelligence sharing These may now be up
:50:35. > :50:40.for renegotiation but after meeting with the EU's Security Commissioner,
:50:41. > :50:42.Mr Khan stressed the It is in nobody's interests for us
:50:43. > :50:49.to have less good links with our European partners
:50:50. > :50:51.after Brexit, in relation Brexiters disagree that leaving
:50:52. > :51:02.the EU could make us less safe. Our intelligence gathering
:51:03. > :51:04.abilities, a lot of our security expertise, we are doing that
:51:05. > :51:07.on a bilateral basis, most of that. We are doing it with other
:51:08. > :51:09.European partners, but not In her letter to the EU,
:51:10. > :51:13.the Prime Minister mentioned security 11 times, calling
:51:14. > :51:15.for a special partnership that takes in both economic
:51:16. > :51:20.and security cooperation. Something she stressed
:51:21. > :51:22.to MPs this week. With Europe's security more fragile
:51:23. > :51:25.today than at any time since the end of the Cold War,
:51:26. > :51:30.weakening our cooperation and failing to stand up for European
:51:31. > :51:36.values would be a costly mistake. Some are saying that
:51:37. > :51:38.sounds like a threat. We're joined by Professor
:51:39. > :51:42.Malcolm Chalmers from Before we get onto that,
:51:43. > :51:48.whether or not it sounded like a threat, in a nutshell,
:51:49. > :51:51.has being part of the EU enhanced There's both the more
:51:52. > :52:02.technical level, police and intelligence cooperation,
:52:03. > :52:05.an element of which is governed by EU wide agreements,
:52:06. > :52:08.much of which is not. We will have to look at how
:52:09. > :52:13.that is continued after Brexit. There is also the broader
:52:14. > :52:16.foreign and security policy arrangements,
:52:17. > :52:19.for example, agreeing EU sanctions against Russia,
:52:20. > :52:23.Iran or whoever it might be. That is a mechanism
:52:24. > :52:28.which we will have to redevelop in some other form once we leave
:52:29. > :52:36.the European Union. Can you participate fully,
:52:37. > :52:39.can you do a good job of countering terrorism and providing security
:52:40. > :52:40.when you're outside The United States and
:52:41. > :52:47.the European Union have many legally binding agreements in a number
:52:48. > :52:50.of areas, not least on data sharing which is absolutely critical
:52:51. > :52:58.in terms of intelligence. Once we are outside
:52:59. > :53:00.the European Union, we will have to develop something of that sort
:53:01. > :53:03.in order to replicate the benefits that the United States
:53:04. > :53:05.or other major powers have. Nick Clegg, the former
:53:06. > :53:07.Deputy Prime Minister, said this week that you would be
:53:08. > :53:12.losing access to Schengen systems, data information systems,
:53:13. > :53:15.absolutely crucial, he said. Is that absolutely crucial,
:53:16. > :53:17.does that imperil our ability As the Prime Minister made clear
:53:18. > :53:22.in the Article 50 letter, in the absence of any agreement
:53:23. > :53:26.on security cooperation after Brexit, there would be real
:53:27. > :53:30.risks, so it is very important for our security and the security
:53:31. > :53:38.of our neighbours that we reach such such an agreement before we withdraw
:53:39. > :53:40.from existing agreements. Do you think it sounded
:53:41. > :53:43.like a threat, what she said today, the coupling together of that
:53:44. > :53:45.with the trade deal? I was struck by how important
:53:46. > :53:48.security was in our letter and how relatively unimportant
:53:49. > :53:50.it was in the reply In the European reply,
:53:51. > :53:53.the main emphasis was Security and counterterrorism
:53:54. > :54:03.was mentioned, but in the Article 50 letter from the UK,
:54:04. > :54:06.as your report suggests, There was considerable reference
:54:07. > :54:10.to the increased dangers Security was almost put
:54:11. > :54:15.on a par with economics. I do not think a direct threat
:54:16. > :54:18.was made, but implicit in it was that nothing is agreed
:54:19. > :54:20.until everything is agreed. We always deal in simplicities,
:54:21. > :54:23.I am afraid, on this programme. If you had to answer whether this
:54:24. > :54:26.made things more difficult, When we talk about whether or not
:54:27. > :54:36.it was a threat, would we suffer, or would the EU suffer more from us
:54:37. > :54:40.taking away our information, our Terrorism, organised crime,
:54:41. > :54:49.cybercrime are all international phenomena which we have to tackle
:54:50. > :54:51.through international cooperation, most of all with our neighbours,
:54:52. > :54:56.but also globally. It does not make any sense
:54:57. > :54:59.to make a calculation as to whether you increase
:55:00. > :55:01.the probability of a terror attack in Paris more than the probability
:55:02. > :55:04.of a terrorist attack in London. It is a shared concern
:55:05. > :55:11.which we have to tackle together. Neil, you said at the beginning
:55:12. > :55:16.of the programme you thought this is what we shouldn't be
:55:17. > :55:19.using as a bargaining chip. What she's doing is just
:55:20. > :55:20.stating a reality. If you want to treat the UK
:55:21. > :55:23.properly and seriously, you will provide them
:55:24. > :55:25.with a sensible trade deal, otherwise things like security
:55:26. > :55:27.will suffer, it is inevitable? We have heard the government talk
:55:28. > :55:30.about British people living in other EU countries and EU citizens living
:55:31. > :55:32.here as bargaining chips, now we are seeing the government
:55:33. > :55:37.trying to lever in that implicit threat of security being,
:55:38. > :55:41.you know, the trade deal being contingent on what we share
:55:42. > :55:44.in terms of security. It is an utterly despicable
:55:45. > :55:46.gesture by the government. Actually if you look
:55:47. > :55:54.at what the United Kingdom contributes to the security
:55:55. > :55:58.and defence of Europe, it is more than any other country,
:55:59. > :56:04.and that is going to continue. We are a responsible nation,
:56:05. > :56:08.we want to work with our allies and partners within the EU,
:56:09. > :56:11.via Nato, but as Gisela Stuart said Most countries have bilateral
:56:12. > :56:21.agreements on these things. It is irresponsible to throw this
:56:22. > :56:25.into the mix and say we might not cooperate on security if we do not
:56:26. > :56:31.get the trade deal. What about the wider issue
:56:32. > :56:35.of whether we will be any less We should recognise
:56:36. > :56:38.that the security services in this country do an incredible job
:56:39. > :56:41.of tackling domestic home grown terror of the kind we sadly saw
:56:42. > :56:44.in London last week. But the idea that we would not
:56:45. > :56:47.want to share and prevent attacks That is not what the Prime Minister
:56:48. > :56:52.is saying, she is highlighting the importance of getting bilateral
:56:53. > :56:54.security agreements in place, she is emphasising
:56:55. > :56:58.the importance of this. The EU is almost taking it
:56:59. > :57:01.for granted, and I do not I think we need to work together
:57:02. > :57:05.with our European friends to make sure that all people of Europe
:57:06. > :57:08.are safe and secure. You're saying they should not take
:57:09. > :57:13.for granted that we share intelligence on threats to them,
:57:14. > :57:16.or they are sharing threats with us. If we are to defeat terrorists,
:57:17. > :57:19.prevent attacks, we must work Malcolm, a final word,
:57:20. > :57:26.the European arrest warrant, which we have heard a lot about,
:57:27. > :57:29.we come out of that Can we get exactly the same
:57:30. > :57:36.arrangement afterwards? It is possible to get
:57:37. > :57:39.the same arrangement. The point is that all of these
:57:40. > :57:42.are about the rule of law, legally binding agreements
:57:43. > :57:45.which strike the right balance between the rights of the individual
:57:46. > :57:50.and the responsibility of state. The current advice given
:57:51. > :57:52.by the European Court of Justice? Cyber security is another example
:57:53. > :57:55.where the European Union regulations play a central role in how
:57:56. > :57:57.we guide our firms You can have new legal arrangements,
:57:58. > :58:03.but it is not simply a case of ad hoc bilateral
:58:04. > :58:05.cooperation after Brexit. You have to have laws in place
:58:06. > :58:14.to govern that relationship. Now for the rest of the political
:58:15. > :58:28.news in 60 Seconds. The firm which operates
:58:29. > :58:31.the Hong Kong metro has been awarded the franchise to run
:58:32. > :58:35.South West Trains for seven years. The Department For Transport said
:58:36. > :58:39.the new operators would oversee a ?1.2 billion investment to improve
:58:40. > :58:42.journeys for millions A six-year cost-cutting partnership
:58:43. > :58:48.between Westminster, Kensington and Chelsea
:58:49. > :58:50.and Hammersmith and Fulham boroughs, to share some
:58:51. > :58:56.services, has collapsed. Westminster and Kensington
:58:57. > :58:59.and Chelsea authorities accuse Hammersmith and Fulham of appearing
:59:00. > :59:02.to make alternative in-house plans without any formal engagement
:59:03. > :59:05.with the other two local authority About 200 couriers are threatening
:59:06. > :59:16.legal action against the takeaway They are claiming that they are
:59:17. > :59:20.employees and entitled Deliveroo claims that delivery
:59:21. > :59:23.riders are self-employed contractors and are not entitled
:59:24. > :59:32.to basic employment rights. On this Brexit focused programme,
:59:33. > :59:35.Neil Coyle, what now needs to happen over the next two years,
:59:36. > :59:43.what are you watching for? My starting point is I would prefer
:59:44. > :59:46.us not to be leaving the European Union,
:59:47. > :59:48.but what the government needs to do is stop deceiving and committing
:59:49. > :59:52.this fraud on British people, and outline the dangers
:59:53. > :59:56.and costs that we face, so, British students pay more to go
:59:57. > :59:59.to universities because universities do not have European funding
:00:00. > :00:02.or international student numbers. Which hospitals do you want
:00:03. > :00:05.to close, which social care services do you want to stop serving people
:00:06. > :00:08.because they cannot recruit? What farms do you want
:00:09. > :00:09.to stop operating? What are you going to say to the car
:00:10. > :00:12.manufacturers who face What do you say to businesses
:00:13. > :00:16.who want to recruit? What do you say to hotels
:00:17. > :00:20.who are reliant on EU nationals? In about 35 seconds,
:00:21. > :00:22.you have got hospitals, Frankly, we have a great future
:00:23. > :00:31.ahead of our great United Kingdom. As long as people like Neil
:00:32. > :00:33.and others stop the Remoaning, accept the will of the British
:00:34. > :00:36.people, let's trade globally, make our own laws, work
:00:37. > :00:38.with our friends and neighbours, let's support businesses and give
:00:39. > :00:40.them the opportunity to be If we go on and on about being
:00:41. > :00:44.unhappy about leaving, To both of you, thanks very
:00:45. > :00:48.much indeed for doing So, what will be the effect
:00:49. > :01:07.of new tax and benefit changes Will the Government's grand
:01:08. > :01:11.trade tour reap benefits? And are the Lib Dems really
:01:12. > :01:13.going to replace Labour, To answer that last question,
:01:14. > :01:25.I'm joined by from Salford by the Lib Dem MP, Alistair
:01:26. > :01:37.Carmichael. Michael Fallon sirs the Lib Dems
:01:38. > :01:43.will replace Labour. How long will it take? We will have to wait and
:01:44. > :01:49.see. Anyone who thinks you can predict the future is engaged in a
:01:50. > :01:53.dodgy game. I have been campaigning with the Liberal Democrats in
:01:54. > :02:01.Manchester... You must not mention... You know the by-election
:02:02. > :02:05.rules. It is only an illustration. Across false ways of the country,
:02:06. > :02:14.the Liberal Democrats are back in business -- across whole swathes of
:02:15. > :02:18.the country. Part of the reason why we are getting a good response is
:02:19. > :02:24.because the Labour Party under Jeremy Corbyn has taken such a
:02:25. > :02:28.self-destructive path. Even if you do pretty well in the local
:02:29. > :02:33.elections, it you have to make up lost ground from the time you did
:02:34. > :02:39.very well in previous times, you used to have 4700 councillors. It
:02:40. > :02:43.will take you a long while to get back to that. You will get no
:02:44. > :02:48.argument from me that we have a mountain to climb. What I'm telling
:02:49. > :02:52.you is, and if this is not just in this round of elections, it is in
:02:53. > :02:57.the other by-elections in places like Richmond, and in by-elections
:02:58. > :03:03.write the length and breadth of the country since last June, the Liberal
:03:04. > :03:06.Democrats are taking seats from the Labour Party under Conservative
:03:07. > :03:13.Party, and not just in Brexit phobic areas. Not just in Remain areas. But
:03:14. > :03:19.in places like Sunderland as well which voted very heavily for Brexit.
:03:20. > :03:25.In fact, that vote was in large part as well a protest against the way in
:03:26. > :03:30.which the Labour Party really has taken these areas for granted over
:03:31. > :03:33.the years. That is why the ground is fertile for us. In the local
:03:34. > :03:39.elections which is what we are discussing today, why would anybody
:03:40. > :03:46.vote for the Liberal Democrats if they believed in Brexit? Mr Farren
:03:47. > :03:52.has said he wants to reverse works. If you are Brexit supporter and you
:03:53. > :03:55.are considering how to cast your vote, first of all, I think you will
:03:56. > :03:59.be looking at the quality of representation you can get for your
:04:00. > :04:08.local area and you are right, we have a lot of ground to recoup from
:04:09. > :04:12.previous elections, we lost 124 seats, communities have now had a
:04:13. > :04:18.few years to reflect on the quality of service they have been able to
:04:19. > :04:20.get and they have missed the very effective liberal Democrat
:04:21. > :04:27.councillors they have had. This is not just about whether you are a
:04:28. > :04:32.believer or remainer, ultimately, that is an issue we are going to
:04:33. > :04:37.have to settle and we will settle it not in the way the Government is
:04:38. > :04:40.having by dictating the terms of the debate, but by bringing the whole
:04:41. > :04:45.country together. I think that is something you can only do if, as we
:04:46. > :04:49.have suggested, you give the people the opportunity to have a say on the
:04:50. > :04:54.deal when Theresa May eventually produces it. The only way you could
:04:55. > :04:58.really replace Labour in the foreseeable future would be if a big
:04:59. > :05:03.chunk of the centre and right of the Labour Party came over and join due
:05:04. > :05:10.in some kind of new social democratic alliance. -- joined you.
:05:11. > :05:13.There is no sign that will happen? I do not see whether common purpose is
:05:14. > :05:18.anymore holding the Labour Party together. That is for people in the
:05:19. > :05:25.Labour Party to make their own decisions. Use what happened to the
:05:26. > :05:31.Labour Party in Scotland. -- you saw. Politics moved on and left them
:05:32. > :05:36.behind and they were decimated as a consequence of that. So was your
:05:37. > :05:40.party. It is possible the same thing could happen to the Labour Party and
:05:41. > :05:45.the rest of the UK. Politics is moving on and they are coming up
:05:46. > :05:53.with 1970s solutions to problems in 2017. Alistair Carmichael, thanks
:05:54. > :05:59.for joining us. Let us have a look at some of the tax and benefit
:06:00. > :06:03.changes coming up this week. The tax changes first of all. The personal
:06:04. > :06:08.allowance is going to rise to ?11,500, the level at which you
:06:09. > :06:15.start to pay tax. The higher rate threshold, where you start to play
:06:16. > :06:22.at 40%, that will rise from currently ?43,400, rising up to 40
:06:23. > :06:28.5000. -- pay. Benefit changes, freeze on working age benefits,
:06:29. > :06:34.removal of the family element of tax credits and universal credit, that
:06:35. > :06:40.is a technical change but quite an impact. The child element of tax
:06:41. > :06:47.credit is going to be limited to two children on any new claims. The
:06:48. > :06:51.Resolution Foundation has crunched the numbers and they discovered that
:06:52. > :06:57.when you take the tax and benefit changes together, 80% go to better
:06:58. > :07:05.off households and the poorest third or worse. What help -- what happened
:07:06. > :07:12.to help the just about managing? The Resolution Foundation exists to find
:07:13. > :07:17.the worst possible statistics... It is not clear the figures are wrong?
:07:18. > :07:21.They are fairly recent figures and I have not seen analysis by other
:07:22. > :07:26.organisations. The Adam Smith Institute will probably have some
:07:27. > :07:30.question marks over it. Nobody should be surprised a Tory
:07:31. > :07:35.government is trying to make the state smaller... And the poor
:07:36. > :07:40.poorer. The system is propped up by better off people and so it will be
:07:41. > :07:47.those people who will be slightly less heavily taxed as you make the
:07:48. > :07:52.state smaller. Theresa May will have to stop just talking about the just
:07:53. > :07:55.about managing. And some of her other language and the role of the
:07:56. > :07:59.government and the state when she sounded quite positive... She
:08:00. > :08:04.sounded like a big government conservative not small government.
:08:05. > :08:12.In every set piece occasion, she says, it is time to look at the good
:08:13. > :08:16.the government can do. That is not what you heard from Mrs Thatcher.
:08:17. > :08:22.Tony Blair and Gordon Brown would not have dared to say it either even
:08:23. > :08:28.if they believed it. It raises a much bigger question which is, as
:08:29. > :08:31.well as whether this is a set of progressive measures, the Resolution
:08:32. > :08:35.Foundation constantly argued when George Osborne announced his budget
:08:36. > :08:40.measures as progressive when they were regressive when they checked
:08:41. > :08:44.out the figures, but also how this government was going to meet the
:08:45. > :08:49.demand for public services when it has ruled out virtually any tax
:08:50. > :08:53.rises that you would normally do now, including National Insurance.
:08:54. > :08:58.There are a whole range of nightmare issues on Philip Hammond's in-tray
:08:59. > :09:03.in relation to tax. The Resolution Foundation figures do not include
:09:04. > :09:07.the rise in the minimum wage which has just gone under way. They do not
:09:08. > :09:10.include the tax free childcare from the end of April, the extra 15 hours
:09:11. > :09:16.of free childcare from September. Even when you include these, it does
:09:17. > :09:20.not look like it would offset the losses of the poorest households.
:09:21. > :09:25.Doesn't that have to be a problem for Theresa May? It really is a
:09:26. > :09:28.problem especially when her narrative and indeed entire purpose
:09:29. > :09:34.in government is for that just about managing. What Mrs May still has
:09:35. > :09:39.which is exactly a problem they have at the budget and the Autumn
:09:40. > :09:43.Statement is that they are still saddled with George Osborne's
:09:44. > :09:49.massive ring fences on tax cuts and spending. They have to go through
:09:50. > :09:52.with the tax cut for the middle classes by pushing up the higher
:09:53. > :09:56.rate threshold which is absolutely going to do nothing for the just
:09:57. > :09:59.about managing. When they try to mitigate that, for example, in the
:10:00. > :10:03.Autumn Statement, Philip Hammond was told to come up with more money to
:10:04. > :10:07.ease the cuts in tax credits, came up with 350 million, an absolute...
:10:08. > :10:14.It is billions and billions involved. Marginal adjustment. A
:10:15. > :10:18.huge problem with the actual tax and benefit changes going on with what
:10:19. > :10:22.Mrs May as saying. The only way to fix it is coming up with more money
:10:23. > :10:27.to alleviate that. Where will you find it? Philip Hammond tried in the
:10:28. > :10:31.Budget with the National Insurance rises but it lasted six and a half
:10:32. > :10:36.days. I was told that it was one of the reasons why the Chancellor
:10:37. > :10:42.looked kindly on the idea of an early election because he wanted to
:10:43. > :10:47.get rid of what he regards as an albatross around his neck, the Tory
:10:48. > :10:51.manifesto 2015, no increase in income tax, no increase in VAT, no
:10:52. > :10:56.increase in National Insurance, fuel duty was not cut when fuel prices
:10:57. > :11:01.were falling so it is hardly going to rise now when they are rising
:11:02. > :11:05.again. This is why, I suggest, they end up in these incredibly
:11:06. > :11:10.complicated what we used to call stealth taxes as ways of trying to
:11:11. > :11:14.raise money and invariably a blow up in your face. Stealth taxes never
:11:15. > :11:20.end up being stealthy. It is part of the narrative that budget begins to
:11:21. > :11:25.fall apart within hours. You have to have sympathy, as Tom says, with
:11:26. > :11:30.Philip Hammond. No wonder he would like to be liberated. The early
:11:31. > :11:34.election will not happen. The best argument I have heard for an early
:11:35. > :11:37.election. The tax and spend about at the last election was a disaster
:11:38. > :11:44.partly because the Conservatives feared they would lose. Maybe they
:11:45. > :11:51.could be a bit more candid about the need to put up some taxes to pay for
:11:52. > :11:53.public services and it is very interesting what you picked up on
:11:54. > :11:59.Philip Hammond because he is trapped. So constrained about... You
:12:00. > :12:05.can also reopen the Ring fencing and spending and the obvious place to go
:12:06. > :12:10.is the triple lock, OAP spending. Another case for an election. He
:12:11. > :12:16.cannot undo the promise to that demographic. We will not get to 2020
:12:17. > :12:21.without something breaking. The Prime Minister, the trade secretary
:12:22. > :12:29.and Mr Hammond, they are off to India, the Far East, talking up
:12:30. > :12:36.trade with these countries, I do not know if any of you are going? Sadly
:12:37. > :12:41.not. Will it produce dividends? The prime Minster is going somewhere
:12:42. > :12:45.too. No, it will not, the honest answer. No one will do a trade deal
:12:46. > :12:48.with us because we cannot do one because we are still in the EU and
:12:49. > :12:52.they need to know what our terms will be with the EU first before
:12:53. > :12:57.they can work out how they want to trade with us. This is vital
:12:58. > :13:01.preparatory work. Ministers always go somewhere in recess, it is what
:13:02. > :13:06.they do. We will not see anything in a hurry, we will not see anything
:13:07. > :13:11.for two years. They have to do it. Whatever side of the joint you are
:13:12. > :13:16.on, Brexit, remain, we need to get out there. -- the argument. We
:13:17. > :13:20.should have been doing this the day after the referendum result. It is
:13:21. > :13:25.now several months down the line and they need to step it up, not the
:13:26. > :13:29.opposite. You can make some informal talks, I guess. You can say, Britain
:13:30. > :13:35.is open for business. There is a symbolism to it. What a lot of
:13:36. > :13:39.energy sucked up into this. Parliament is not sitting so they
:13:40. > :13:46.might as well start talking. We have run out of energy and time. That is
:13:47. > :13:50.it for today. We are off for the Easter recess, back in two weeks'
:13:51. > :13:52.time. If it is Sunday, it is the Sunday Politics. Unless it is that
:13:53. > :14:21.used to recess! -- Easter recess. Marine Le Pen has her eyes
:14:22. > :14:24.on the French presidency. As she tries to distance herself
:14:25. > :14:28.from her party's controversial past, we follow the money and ask,
:14:29. > :14:52."Who's funding her campaign?" I think I've died and gone to
:14:53. > :15:01.heaven. Saluti. Chin-chin. So, can anybody speak Italian?
:15:02. > :15:05.No. Non parlo italiano.