:00:38. > :00:41.It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:42. > :00:44.The local election results made grim reading for Labour.
:00:45. > :00:48.With just a month to go until the general election,
:00:49. > :00:51.will promising to rule out tax rises for all but the well off help
:00:52. > :00:57.The Conservatives have their own announcement on mental health,
:00:58. > :00:59.as they strain every sinew to insist they don't think they've got
:01:00. > :01:07.But is there still really all to play for?
:01:08. > :01:11.And tonight we will find out who is the next
:01:12. > :01:14.President of France - Emmanuel Macron or Marine Le Pen -
:01:15. > :01:17.after an unpredictable campaign that ended with a hack attack
:01:18. > :01:23.on Mr Macron, considered the frontrunner.
:01:24. > :01:29.In the capital, there were no elections but we are looking at the
:01:30. > :01:31.potential impact in marginals next month. If Ukip support continues to
:01:32. > :01:38.evaporate... And joining me for all of that,
:01:39. > :01:41.three journalists ready to analyse the week's politics
:01:42. > :01:44.with all the forensic focus of Diane Abbott
:01:45. > :01:48.preparing for an interview, and all the relaxed,
:01:49. > :01:50.slogan-free banter of Theresa May It's Janan Ganesh, Isabel Oakeshott
:01:51. > :01:56.and Steve Richards. So, the Conservatives are promising,
:01:57. > :02:03.if re-elected, to change mental health laws in England and Wales
:02:04. > :02:06.to tackle discrimination, and they're promising 10,000 more
:02:07. > :02:12.staff working in NHS mental health treatment in England by 2020 -
:02:13. > :02:14.although how that's to be Here's Health Secretary
:02:15. > :02:17.Jeremy Hunt speaking There is a lot of new
:02:18. > :02:25.money going into it. In January, we said we were going
:02:26. > :02:28.to put an extra ?1 billion Does this come from other parts
:02:29. > :02:32.of the NHS, or is it No, it is new money
:02:33. > :02:35.going into the NHS It's not just of course money,
:02:36. > :02:42.it's having the people who deliver these jobs,
:02:43. > :02:44.which is why we need Well, we're joined now from Norwich
:02:45. > :02:49.by the Liberal Democrat health This weekend, they've launched
:02:50. > :02:52.their own health announcement, promising a 1% rise on every income
:02:53. > :03:04.tax band to fund the NHS. Do you welcome the Conservatives
:03:05. > :03:09.putting mental health onto the campaign agenda in the way that they
:03:10. > :03:14.have? I welcome it being on the campaign agenda but I do fear that
:03:15. > :03:19.the announcement is built on thin air. You raised the issue at the
:03:20. > :03:22.start about the 10,000 extra staff, and questions surrounding how it
:03:23. > :03:27.would be paid for. There is no additional money on what they have
:03:28. > :03:34.already announced for the NHS. We know it falls massively short on the
:03:35. > :03:38.expectation of the funding gap which, by 2020, is likely to be
:03:39. > :03:43.about 30 billion. That is not disputed now. Anyone outside of the
:03:44. > :03:46.government, wherever you are on the political spectrum, knows the money
:03:47. > :03:56.going in is simply not enough. So, rather like the claim that they
:03:57. > :04:00.would add 5000 GPs to the workforce by 2020, that is not on target.
:04:01. > :04:05.Latest figures show a fall in the number of GPs. They make these
:04:06. > :04:09.claims, but I'm afraid they are without substance, unless they are
:04:10. > :04:15.prepared to put money behind it. Your party's solution to the money
:04:16. > :04:25.problem is to put a 1% percentage point on all of the bands of income
:04:26. > :04:33.tax to raise more money 20-45. Is that unfair? Most pensioners who
:04:34. > :04:37.consume 40% of NHS spending, but over 65s only pay about 20% of
:04:38. > :04:42.income tax. Are you penalising the younger generations for the health
:04:43. > :04:46.care of an older generation? It is the first step in what we are
:04:47. > :04:51.describing as a 5-point recovery plan for the NHS and care system.
:04:52. > :04:58.So, for what is available to us now, it seems to be the fairest way of
:04:59. > :05:01.bringing in extra resources, income tax is progressive, and is based on
:05:02. > :05:06.your ability to pay for your average British worker. It would be ?3 per
:05:07. > :05:11.week which is the cost of less than two cups of coffee per week. In the
:05:12. > :05:16.longer run, we say that by the end of the next Parliament, we would be
:05:17. > :05:23.able to introduce a dedicated NHS and care tax. Based, probably,
:05:24. > :05:28.around a reformed national insurance system, so it becomes a dedicated
:05:29. > :05:31.NHS and care tax. Interestingly, the former permanent secretary of the
:05:32. > :05:37.Treasury, Nick MacPherson, said clearly that this idea merits
:05:38. > :05:43.further consideration which is the first time anyone for the Treasury
:05:44. > :05:47.has bought into the idea of this. Let me ask you this. You say it is a
:05:48. > :05:52.small amount of tax that people on average incomes will have to pay
:05:53. > :05:57.extra. We are talking about people who have seen no real increases to
:05:58. > :06:02.their income since 2007. They have been struggling to stand still in
:06:03. > :06:06.terms of their own pay, but you are going to add to their tax, and as I
:06:07. > :06:11.said earlier, most of the health care money will then go to
:06:12. > :06:16.pensioners whose incomes have risen by 15%. I'm interested in the
:06:17. > :06:22.fairness of this redistribution? Bearing in mind first of all,
:06:23. > :06:28.Andrew, that the raising of the tax threshold that the Liberal Democrats
:06:29. > :06:33.pushed through in the coalition increased the effective pay in your
:06:34. > :06:38.pocket for basic rate taxpayers by about ?1000. We are talking about a
:06:39. > :06:41.tiny fraction of that. I suppose that you do have to ask, all of us
:06:42. > :06:46.in this country need to ask ourselves this question... Are we
:06:47. > :06:52.prepared to pay, in terms of the average worker, about ?3 extra per
:06:53. > :06:57.week to give us a guarantee that when our loved ones need that care,
:06:58. > :07:02.in their hour of need, perhaps suspected cancer, that care will be
:07:03. > :07:07.available for them? I have heard two cases recently brought my attention.
:07:08. > :07:10.An elderly couple, the wife has a very bad hip. They could not allow
:07:11. > :07:16.the weight to continue. She was told that she would need to wait 26
:07:17. > :07:19.weeks, she was in acute pain. They then deduct paying ?20,000 for
:07:20. > :07:24.private treatment to circumvent waiting time. They hated doing it,
:07:25. > :07:30.because they did not want to jump the queue. But that is what is
:07:31. > :07:33.increasingly happening. Sorry to interrupt, Norman Lamb comedy make
:07:34. > :07:39.very good points but we are short on time today. One final question, it
:07:40. > :07:44.looks like you might have the chance to do any of this, I'm told the best
:07:45. > :07:49.you can hope to do internally is to double the number of seats you have,
:07:50. > :07:54.which would only take you to 18. Do you think that promising to raise
:07:55. > :07:58.people's income tax, even those on average earnings, is a vote winner?
:07:59. > :08:02.I think the people in this country are crying out for politicians to be
:08:03. > :08:09.straight and tenet as it is. At the moment we heading towards a
:08:10. > :08:14.Conservative landslide... -- tell it as it is. But do we want a 1-party
:08:15. > :08:19.state? We are electing a government not only to deal with the crucial
:08:20. > :08:23.Brexit negotiations, but oversee the stewardship of the NHS and funding
:08:24. > :08:26.of our schools, all of these critical issues. We need an
:08:27. > :08:31.effective opposition and with the Labour Party having taken itself off
:08:32. > :08:34.stage, the Liberal Democrats need to provide an effective opposition.
:08:35. > :08:38.Norman Lamb, thank you for joining us this morning. Thank you.
:08:39. > :08:41.Labour and Tories are anxious to stress the general election
:08:42. > :08:43.result is not a foregone conclusion, whatever the polls say.
:08:44. > :08:48.Order you just heard Norman Lamb say there that he thought the
:08:49. > :08:51.Conservatives were heading for a landslide...
:08:52. > :08:53.But did Thursday's dramatic set of local election results
:08:54. > :08:56.in England, Scotland and Wales give us a better idea of how the country
:08:57. > :09:00.Here's Emma Vardy with a behind-the-scenes look at how
:09:01. > :09:03.Good morning, it's seven o'clock on Friday, May 5th...
:09:04. > :09:09.The dawn of another results day. Anticipation hung in the air.
:09:10. > :09:14.Early results from the local elections in England suggest
:09:15. > :09:16.there's been a substantial swing from Labour to the Conservatives.
:09:17. > :09:20.While the pros did their thing, I needed breakfast.
:09:21. > :09:23.Don't tell anyone, but I'm going to pinch a sausage.
:09:24. > :09:25.The overnight counts had delivered successes for the Tories.
:09:26. > :09:26.But with most councils only getting started,
:09:27. > :09:32.there was plenty of action still to come.
:09:33. > :09:34.It's not quite the night of Labour's nightmares.
:09:35. > :09:36.There's enough mixed news in Wales, for example -
:09:37. > :09:40.looks like they're about to hold Cardiff - that they'll try and put
:09:41. > :09:46.But in really simple terms, four weeks from a general election,
:09:47. > :09:49.the Tories are going forward and Labour are going backwards.
:09:50. > :09:54.How does it compare being in here to doing the telly?
:09:55. > :10:00.Huw, how do you prepare yourself for a long day of results, then?
:10:01. > :10:06.We're not even on air yet, as you can see, and already
:10:07. > :10:09.in Tory HQ this morning, there's a kind of, "Oh,
:10:10. > :10:12.I'm scared this will make people think the election's just
:10:13. > :10:15.I think leave it like that - perfect.
:10:16. > :10:18.I want the Laura look. This is really good, isn't it?
:10:19. > :10:22.Usually, we're in here for the Daily Politics.
:10:23. > :10:27.But it's been transformed for the Election Results programme.
:10:28. > :10:39.But hours went by without Ukip winning a single seat.
:10:40. > :10:45.The joke going around Lincolnshire County Council today
:10:46. > :10:48.from the Conservatives is that the Tories have eaten
:10:49. > :10:51.We will rebrand and come back strong.
:10:52. > :10:56.Morale, I think, is inevitably going to take a bit of a tumble.
:10:57. > :11:00.Particularly if Theresa May starts backsliding on Brexit.
:11:01. > :11:02.And then I think we will be totally reinvigorated.
:11:03. > :11:05.There are a lot of good people in Ukip and I wouldn't
:11:06. > :11:08.want to say anything unkind, but we all know it's over.
:11:09. > :11:12.Ukip press officer. Difficult job.
:11:13. > :11:16.Ukip weren't the only ones putting a brave face on it.
:11:17. > :11:19.Labour were experiencing their own disaster day too,
:11:20. > :11:23.losing hundreds of seats and seven councils.
:11:24. > :11:27.If the result is what these results appear to indicate,
:11:28. > :11:32.Can we have a quick word for the Sunday Politics?
:11:33. > :11:40.A quick question for Sunday Politics - how are you feeling?
:11:41. > :11:45.Downhearted or fired up for June? Fired up, absolutely fired up.
:11:46. > :11:47.He's fired up. We're going to go out there...
:11:48. > :11:49.We cannot go on with another five years of this.
:11:50. > :11:52.How's it been for you today? Tiring.
:11:53. > :11:55.It always is, but I love elections, I really enjoy them.
:11:56. > :11:59.Yes, you know, obviously we're disappointed at some of the results,
:12:00. > :12:01.it's been a mixed bag, but some opinion polls
:12:02. > :12:06.and commentators predicted we'd be wiped out - we haven't.
:12:07. > :12:09.As for the Lib Dems, not the resurgence they hoped for,
:12:10. > :12:17.After a dead heat in Northumberland, the control of a whole council came
:12:18. > :12:26.The section of England in which we had elections yesterday
:12:27. > :12:30.was the section of England that was most likely to vote Leave.
:12:31. > :12:33.When you go to sleep at night, do you just have election results
:12:34. > :12:39.The answer is if that's still happening, I don't get to sleep.
:12:40. > :12:41.There we go. Maybe practice some yoga...
:12:42. > :12:46.Thank you very much but I have one here.
:12:47. > :12:49.With the introduction of six regional mayors,
:12:50. > :12:52.Labour's Andy Burnham became Mr Manchester.
:12:53. > :12:55.But by the time Corbyn came to celebrate, the new mayor
:12:56. > :13:01.We want you to stay for a second because I've got some
:13:02. > :13:04.I used to present news, as you probably know.
:13:05. > :13:06.I used to present BBC Breakfast in the morning.
:13:07. > :13:09.The SNP had notable successes, ending 40 years of Labour
:13:10. > :13:15.What did you prefer - presenting or politics?
:13:16. > :13:22.And it certainly had been a hard day at the office for some.
:13:23. > :13:26.Ukip's foothold in local government was all but wiped out,
:13:27. > :13:28.leaving the Conservatives with their best local
:13:29. > :13:33.So another election results day draws to a close.
:13:34. > :13:36.But don't worry, we'll be doing it all again in five weeks' time.
:13:37. > :13:39.For now, though, that's your lot. Off you go.
:13:40. > :13:51.Now let's look at some of Thursday's results in a little more detail,
:13:52. > :13:53.and what they might mean for the wider fortunes
:13:54. > :14:05.In England, there were elections for 34 councils.
:14:06. > :14:07.The Conservatives took control of ten of them,
:14:08. > :14:09.gaining over 300 seats, while Labour sustained
:14:10. > :14:14.While the Lib Dems lost 28 seats, Ukip came close to extinction,
:14:15. > :14:20.and can now boast of only one councillor in the whole of England.
:14:21. > :14:22.In Scotland, the big story was Labour losing
:14:23. > :14:25.a third of their seats, and control of three councils -
:14:26. > :14:27.while the Tories more than doubled their number of councillors.
:14:28. > :14:31.In Wales, both the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru made gains,
:14:32. > :14:37.There was some encouraging news for Jeremy Corbyn's party
:14:38. > :14:39.after Liverpool and Manchester both elected Labour mayors,
:14:40. > :14:46.although the Tories narrowly won the West Midlands mayoral race.
:14:47. > :14:49.We're joined now by who else but elections expert John Curtice.
:14:50. > :14:53.You saw him in Emma's film, he's now back in Glasgow.
:14:54. > :15:06.In broad terms, what do these local election results tell us about the
:15:07. > :15:11.general election result? First we have to remember what Theresa May
:15:12. > :15:14.wants to achieve in the general election is a landslide, and winning
:15:15. > :15:18.a landslide means you have to win big in terms of votes. The local
:15:19. > :15:22.election results certainly suggest Theresa May is well on course to win
:15:23. > :15:27.the general election, at least with four weeks to go, and of course
:15:28. > :15:30.people could change their minds. We all agree the Conservatives were
:15:31. > :15:35.double-digit figures ahead of Labour in these elections. However, whereas
:15:36. > :15:42.the opinion polls on average at the moment suggest there is a 17 point
:15:43. > :15:44.Conservative lead, and that definitely would deliver a
:15:45. > :15:47.landslide, it seems the local election figures, at least in
:15:48. > :15:51.England, are pointing to something close to an 11 point Conservative
:15:52. > :15:57.lead. That increase would not necessarily deliver a landslide that
:15:58. > :16:01.she wants. The truth is, the next four weeks are probably not about
:16:02. > :16:05.who wins this election unless something dramatic changes, but
:16:06. > :16:08.there is still a battle as to whether or not Theresa May achieves
:16:09. > :16:13.her objective of winning a landslide. She has to win big. The
:16:14. > :16:17.local elections as she is not sure to be there, and therefore she is
:16:18. > :16:21.going to have to campaign hard. Equally, while Labour did have most
:16:22. > :16:26.prospect of winning, they still at least at the goal of trying to keep
:16:27. > :16:30.the conservative majority relatively low, and therefore the Parliamentary
:16:31. > :16:34.Labour Party are alive and kicking. Interesting that the local election
:16:35. > :16:38.results don't produce a landslide if replicated on June 8th, but when I
:16:39. > :16:44.looked at when local elections had taken place a month before the
:16:45. > :16:49.general election, it was in 1983 and 1987. The Tories did well in both
:16:50. > :16:52.local elections in these years, but come the general election, they
:16:53. > :16:57.added five points to their share of the vote. No reason it should happen
:16:58. > :17:01.again, but if it did, that would take them into landslide territory.
:17:02. > :17:05.Absolutely right, if they do five points better than the local
:17:06. > :17:11.elections, they are in landslide territory. We have to remember, in
:17:12. > :17:16.1983, the Labour Party ran an inept campaign and their support ballet.
:17:17. > :17:22.In 1987, David Owen and David Steele could not keep to the same lines. --
:17:23. > :17:25.their support fell away. That underlines how well the opposition
:17:26. > :17:29.campaign in the next four weeks does potentially matter in terms of
:17:30. > :17:33.Theresa May's ability to achieve their objective. It is worth
:17:34. > :17:38.noticing in the opinion polls, two things have happened, first, Ukip
:17:39. > :17:41.voters, a significant slice going to the Conservatives, which helped to
:17:42. > :17:44.increase the Conservative leader in the bowels. But in the last week,
:17:45. > :17:50.the Labour vote seems to have recovered. -- in the polls. So the
:17:51. > :17:56.party is not that far short of what Ed Miliband got in 2015, so the
:17:57. > :18:00.Conservative leader is back down to 16 or 17, as we started. So we
:18:01. > :18:05.should not necessarily presume Labour are going to go backwards in
:18:06. > :18:11.the way they did in 1983. I want to finish by asking if there are deeper
:18:12. > :18:13.forces at work? Whether the referendum in this country is
:18:14. > :18:17.producing a realignment in British politics. The Scottish referendum
:18:18. > :18:22.has produced a kind of realignment in Scotland. And in a different way,
:18:23. > :18:30.the Brexit referendum has produced a realignment in England and Wales. Do
:18:31. > :18:33.you agree? You are quite right. Referendums are potentially
:18:34. > :18:36.disruptive in Scotland, they helped to ensure the constitutional
:18:37. > :18:41.question became the central issue, and the 45% who voted yes our been
:18:42. > :18:45.faithful to the SNP since. Although the SNP put in a relatively
:18:46. > :18:50.disappointing performance in Scotland on Thursday. Equally, south
:18:51. > :18:53.of the border, on the leave side, in the past 12 months and particularly
:18:54. > :18:58.the last few weeks, the Conservatives have corralled the
:18:59. > :19:03.leave vote, about two thirds of those who voted leave now say they
:19:04. > :19:07.will vote Conservative. Last summer, the figure was only 50%. On the
:19:08. > :19:17.remain side, the vote is still fragmented. The reason why Theresa
:19:18. > :19:21.May is in the strong position she is is not simply because the leave vote
:19:22. > :19:29.has been realigned, but the remain vote has not. Thank you for joining
:19:30. > :19:33.us. You can go through polls and wonder who is up and down, but I
:19:34. > :19:38.wonder whether the Scottish and Brexit referendums have produced
:19:39. > :19:45.fundamental changes. In Scotland, the real division now is between the
:19:46. > :19:49.centre-left Nationalist party and the centre-right Unionist party.
:19:50. > :19:54.That has had the consequence of squeezing out Labour in the
:19:55. > :19:59.argument, never mind the Greens and the Lib Dems. In London, England,
:20:00. > :20:04.Wales, the Brexit referendum seems to have produced a realignment of
:20:05. > :20:14.the right to the Tories' advantage, and some trouble for the Labour blue
:20:15. > :20:20.vote -- blue-collar vote. It works for the pro Brexit end of the
:20:21. > :20:24.spectrum but not the other half. In the last century, we had people like
:20:25. > :20:27.Roy Jenkins dreaming of and writing about the realignment of British
:20:28. > :20:30.politics as though it could be consciously engineered, and in fact
:20:31. > :20:36.what made it happen was just the calling of a referendum. It's not
:20:37. > :20:39.something you can put about as a politician, it flows from below,
:20:40. > :20:45.when the public begin to think of politics in terms of single issues,
:20:46. > :20:49.dominant issues, such as leaving the European Union. Rather than a broad
:20:50. > :20:54.spectrum designed by a political class. I wonder whether now Remain
:20:55. > :20:58.have it in them to coalesce behind a single party. It doesn't look like
:20:59. > :21:01.they can do it behind Labour. The Liberal Democrats are frankly too
:21:02. > :21:06.small in Parliament to constitute that kind of force. The closest
:21:07. > :21:11.thing to a powerful Remain party is the SNP which by definition has
:21:12. > :21:17.limited appeal south of the border. It is hard. The realignment. We
:21:18. > :21:21.don't know if it is permanent or how dramatic it will be, but there is
:21:22. > :21:25.some kind of realignment going on. At the moment, it seems to be a
:21:26. > :21:30.realignment that by and large is to the benefit of the Conservatives.
:21:31. > :21:33.Without a doubt, and that can be directly attributed to the
:21:34. > :21:36.disappearance of Ukip from the political landscape. I have been
:21:37. > :21:41.saying since the referendum that I thought Ukip was finished. They
:21:42. > :21:45.still seem to be staggering on under the illusion... Some people may have
:21:46. > :21:49.picked up on Nigel Farage this morning saying that Ukip still had a
:21:50. > :21:53.strong role to play until Brexit actually happens. But I think it's
:21:54. > :21:57.very, very hard to convince the voters of that, because they feel
:21:58. > :22:00.that, with the result of the referendum, that was Ukip's job
:22:01. > :22:05.done. And those votes are not going to delay the party -- to the Labour
:22:06. > :22:11.Party because of the flaws with Jeremy Corbyn's leadership, they are
:22:12. > :22:15.shifting to the Tories. I agree. The key issue was the referendum. It has
:22:16. > :22:20.produced a fundamental change that few predicted at the time it was
:22:21. > :22:24.called. Most fundamental of all, it has brought about a unity in the
:22:25. > :22:27.Conservative Party. With some exceptions, but they are now off
:22:28. > :22:34.editing the Evening Standard and other things! This is now a party
:22:35. > :22:39.united around Brexit. Since 1992, the Tories have been split over
:22:40. > :22:42.Europe, at times fatally so. The referendum, in ways that David
:22:43. > :22:47.Cameron did not anticipate, has brought about a united front for
:22:48. > :22:51.this election. In a way, this is a sequel to the referendum, because
:22:52. > :22:54.it's about Brexit but we still don't know what form Brexit is going to
:22:55. > :23:01.take. By calling it early, Theresa May has in effect got another go at
:23:02. > :23:04.a kind of Brexit referendum without knowing what Brexit is, with a
:23:05. > :23:07.united Tory party behind her. We shall see if it is a blip or a
:23:08. > :23:10.long-term trend in British politics. Now let's turn to Labour's big
:23:11. > :23:12.campaign announcement today, and that was the promise of no
:23:13. > :23:15.income tax rise for those earning less than ?80,000 -
:23:16. > :23:18.which of course means those earning more than that could
:23:19. > :23:19.face an increase. Here's Shadow Chancellor John
:23:20. > :23:29.McDonell on the BBC earlier. What we are saying today, anyone
:23:30. > :23:34.earning below ?80,000, we will guarantee you will not have an
:23:35. > :23:37.increase in income tax, VAT or national insurance contributions.
:23:38. > :23:41.For those above 80,000, we are asking them to pay a modest bit more
:23:42. > :23:46.to fund our public services. A modest bit. You will see it will be
:23:47. > :23:53.a modest increase. Talking about modest increases, so we can have a
:23:54. > :23:55.society which we believe everyone shares the benefits of.
:23:56. > :24:00.We're joined now by Shadow Justice Secretary Richard Burgon, in Leeds.
:24:01. > :24:07.Mr McDonnell stressed that for those earning over 80,000, they would be
:24:08. > :24:11.paying more but it would be modest. He used the word modest 45 times.
:24:12. > :24:18.But there is only 1.2 million of them. -- 4-5 times. So that would
:24:19. > :24:25.not raise much money. This is about the key part of this tax policy for
:24:26. > :24:28.the many, not the few. We are saying that low earners and middle earners
:24:29. > :24:32.won't be paying more tax under a Labour government, which is not a
:24:33. > :24:36.policy the Conservatives have committed to yet. As John McDonnell
:24:37. > :24:43.also said in his interview earlier, if there is a tax rise on the top 5%
:24:44. > :24:48.of earners, earning over ?80,000, it would be a modest rise. I am trying
:24:49. > :24:55.to work out what that would mean in terms of money. If it is too modest,
:24:56. > :24:57.you don't raise much. What will happen is the Labour Party's
:24:58. > :25:03.manifesto, published in the next couple of weeks, wilfully set out
:25:04. > :25:13.and cost it. I can't make an announcement now. -- will fully set
:25:14. > :25:16.out and cost it. Moving on to the local elections, Mr Corbyn says he
:25:17. > :25:21.is closing the gap with the Tories. What evidence is there? John Curtis
:25:22. > :25:27.just said there was an 11% gap in the results, Labour 11% behind. The
:25:28. > :25:32.polls before that suggested Labour were anything up to 20% behind. Was
:25:33. > :25:38.it a great day for Labour? Certainly not. Is there a lot to do between
:25:39. > :25:43.now and June? Sure, but we are relishing every moment of that.
:25:44. > :25:47.Comparing equivalent elections in 2013, the Tories increased their
:25:48. > :25:57.share of the vote by 13%. You lost 2%. That's a net of 15%. In what way
:25:58. > :26:04.is that closing the gap? We have gone down to 11 points behind. Am I
:26:05. > :26:08.satisfied? Certainly not. Is Labour satisfied? Certainly not. A week is
:26:09. > :26:13.a long time in politics, 4-5 weeks is even longer. The local elections
:26:14. > :26:17.are over, the general election campaign is starting, and we want to
:26:18. > :26:22.put out there the policies that will improve the lives of low and middle
:26:23. > :26:27.income earners. And also many people looking to be well off as well. You
:26:28. > :26:33.lost 133 seats in Scotland. Are you closing the gap in Scotland? The
:26:34. > :26:36.journey back for Labour in Scotland, I always thought, wouldn't be an
:26:37. > :26:41.easy one. Since the council election results and Scotland that we are
:26:42. > :26:45.comparing this to, there has been an independence referendum and the
:26:46. > :26:49.terrible results for Labour in the 2015 general election. So it is a
:26:50. > :26:53.challenge, but one hundreds of thousands of Labour members are
:26:54. > :26:56.determined to meet. That is why we're talking about bread and butter
:26:57. > :27:03.policies to make people's lives better. These local elections took
:27:04. > :27:10.place midtown. Normally mid-term was the worst time for a government. --
:27:11. > :27:15.took place midterm. And the best for an opposition. That is a feature of
:27:16. > :27:20.British politics. So why did you lose 382 councillors in a midterm
:27:21. > :27:25.election? As Andy Burnham said when he gave his acceptance speech after
:27:26. > :27:31.his terrific first ballot result win in Manchester, it was an evening of
:27:32. > :27:35.mixed results for Labour. Generally bad, wasn't it? Why did you lose all
:27:36. > :27:40.of these councillors midterm? It is not a welcome result for Labour, I
:27:41. > :27:44.am not going to be deluded. But what I and the Labour Party are focused
:27:45. > :27:49.on is the next four weeks. And how we are going to put across policies
:27:50. > :27:54.like free school meals for primary school children, ?10 an hour minimum
:27:55. > :28:00.wage, the pledge not to increase tax for low and middle earners, 95% of
:28:01. > :28:04.earners in this country. And saving the NHS from privatisation and
:28:05. > :28:08.funding it properly. These are just some of the policies, including by
:28:09. > :28:12.the way a boost in carers' allowance, that will make the lives
:28:13. > :28:19.of people in Britain better off. Labour are for the many, not for the
:28:20. > :28:23.few. But people like from political parties aspiring to government is to
:28:24. > :28:27.be united and to be singing from the same song sheet among the leaders.
:28:28. > :28:31.You mentioned Andy Burnham. Why did he not join Mr Corbyn when Jeremy
:28:32. > :28:37.Corbyn went to the rally in Manchester on Friday to celebrate
:28:38. > :28:41.his victory? First of all, Andy Burnham did a radio interview
:28:42. > :28:44.straight after his great victory in which he said Jeremy Corbyn helped
:28:45. > :28:51.him to win votes in that election. Why didn't he turn up? As to the
:28:52. > :28:57.reason Andy Burnham wasn't there at the meeting Jeremy was doing in
:28:58. > :29:00.Manchester, it was because, I understand, Andy was booked into
:29:01. > :29:04.celebrate his victory with his family that night. I don't begrudge
:29:05. > :29:07.him that and hopefully you don't. The leader has made the effort to
:29:08. > :29:11.travel to Manchester to celebrate one of the few victories you enjoyed
:29:12. > :29:17.on Thursday, surely you would join the leader and celebrate together?
:29:18. > :29:21.Well, I don't regard, and I am sure you don't, Andy Burnham a nice time
:29:22. > :29:28.with his family... -- I don't begrudge. He made it clear Jeremy
:29:29. > :29:35.Corbyn assisted him. I can see you are not convinced yourself. I am
:29:36. > :29:40.convinced. The outgoing Labour leader in Derbyshire lost his seat
:29:41. > :29:45.on Thursday, you lost Derbyshire, which was a surprise in itself... He
:29:46. > :29:50.said that genuine party supporters said they were not voting Labour
:29:51. > :29:56.while you have Jeremy Corbyn as leader. Are you hearing that on the
:29:57. > :30:00.doorstep too? I have been knocking on hundreds of doors this week in my
:30:01. > :30:04.constituency and elsewhere. And of course, you never get every single
:30:05. > :30:10.voter thinking the leader of any political party is the greatest
:30:11. > :30:14.thing since sliced bread. But it's only on a minority of doorsteps that
:30:15. > :30:19.people are criticising the Labour leader. Most people aren't even
:30:20. > :30:24.talking about these questions. Most people are talking about Jeremy
:30:25. > :30:30.Corbyn's policies, free primary school meals, ?10 an hour minimum
:30:31. > :30:33.wage. Also policies such as paternity pay, maternity pay and
:30:34. > :30:37.sickness pay for the self-employed, that have been hard-pressed under
:30:38. > :30:40.this government. So I don't recognise that pitch of despondency,
:30:41. > :30:46.but I understand that in different areas, in local elections,
:30:47. > :30:50.perspectives are different. That was Derbyshire. The outgoing Labour
:30:51. > :30:53.leader of Nottinghamshire County Council said there was concern on
:30:54. > :30:58.the doorstep about whether Jeremy Corbyn was the right person to lead
:30:59. > :31:03.the Labour Party, and even Rotherham, loyal to Mr Corbyn, won
:31:04. > :31:09.the mail contest in Liverpool, he said that the Labour leader was more
:31:10. > :31:13.might on the doorstep. -- the mayor contest. Does that explain some of
:31:14. > :31:17.the performance on Thursday? I am confident that in the next four
:31:18. > :31:22.weeks, when we get into coverage on television, that people will see
:31:23. > :31:26.further the kind of open leadership Jeremy provides. In contrast to
:31:27. > :31:30.Theresa May's refusal to meet ordinary people. She came to my
:31:31. > :31:34.constituency and I don't think that a single person who lives here. And
:31:35. > :31:37.also she is ducking the chance to debate with Jeremy Corbyn on TV. She
:31:38. > :31:44.should do it and let the people decide. I don't know why she won't.
:31:45. > :31:49.Finally, the Labour mantra is that you are the party of the ordinary
:31:50. > :32:02.people, why is it the case that among what advertisers call C2s, D
:32:03. > :32:08.and E', how can you on the pulse of that social group, how can you do
:32:09. > :32:12.that? Our policy is to assist, protect and improve the living
:32:13. > :32:15.standards of people in those groups and our policy is to protect the
:32:16. > :32:20.living standards of the majority... They do not seem to be convinced? We
:32:21. > :32:22.have four weeks to convince them and I believe that we will. Thank you
:32:23. > :32:25.for coming onto the programme. But the wooden spoon from Thursday's
:32:26. > :32:30.elections undoubtedly went to Ukip. Four years ago the party
:32:31. > :32:33.won its best ever local government performance,
:32:34. > :32:35.but this time its support just Ukip's share of the vote
:32:36. > :32:38.plunging by as much as 18 points, most obviously
:32:39. > :32:42.benefiting the Conservatives. So is it all over for
:32:43. > :32:44.the self-styled people's army? Well we're joined now
:32:45. > :32:46.by the party's leader in the Welsh Assembly,
:32:47. > :32:57.Neil Hamilton, he's in Cardiff. Neil Hamilton, welcome. Ukip
:32:58. > :33:01.finished local elections gaining the same number of councillors as the
:33:02. > :33:07.Rubbish Party, one. That sums up your prospects, doesn't
:33:08. > :33:13.it? Rubbish? We have been around a long time and seemed that I'd go
:33:14. > :33:18.out, go in again, we will keep calm and carry on. We are in a phoney
:33:19. > :33:21.war, negotiations on Brexit have not started but what we know from
:33:22. > :33:25.Theresa May is that in seven years, as Home Secretary and Prime
:33:26. > :33:29.Minister, she has completely failed to control immigration which was one
:33:30. > :33:35.of the great driving forces behind the Brexit result. I'm not really
:33:36. > :33:38.looking for any great success in immigration from the Tories, and a
:33:39. > :33:43.lot of people who have previously voted for Ukip will be back in our
:33:44. > :33:48.part of the field again. They don't seem to care about that at the
:33:49. > :33:54.moment, your party lost 147 council seats. You gain one. It is time to
:33:55. > :33:58.shut up shop, isn't it? You are right, the voters are not focusing
:33:59. > :34:01.on other domestic issues at the moment. They have made up their
:34:02. > :34:07.minds going into these negotiations in Brussels, Theresa May, as Prime
:34:08. > :34:11.Minister, needs as much support as she can get. I think they are wrong
:34:12. > :34:17.in this respect, it would be better to have a cohort of Ukip MPs to back
:34:18. > :34:23.her up. She was greatly helped by the intervention of Mr Juncker last
:34:24. > :34:27.week as well, the stupidity in how the European Commission has tried to
:34:28. > :34:29.bully the British government, in those circumstances the British
:34:30. > :34:35.people will react in one way going the opposite way to what the
:34:36. > :34:39.Brussels establishment one. She has been fortunate as an acute tactician
:34:40. > :34:43.in having the election now. I struggle to see the way back for
:34:44. > :34:47.your party. You aren't a threat to the Tories in the south. Ukip voters
:34:48. > :34:52.are flocking to the Tories in the south. You don't threaten Labour in
:34:53. > :34:56.the north. It is the Tories who threaten Labour now in the north.
:34:57. > :35:01.There is no room to progress, is there? The reality will be is that
:35:02. > :35:06.once we are back on the domestic agenda again, and the Brexit
:35:07. > :35:11.negotiations are concluded, we will know what the outcome is. And the
:35:12. > :35:15.focus will be on bread and butter issues. We have all sorts of
:35:16. > :35:21.policies in our programme which other parties cannot match us on.
:35:22. > :35:25.The talk is putting up taxes to help the health service, we would scrap
:35:26. > :35:28.the foreign aid budget and put another ?8 billion in the health
:35:29. > :35:33.service, no other party says that. These policies would be popular with
:35:34. > :35:38.the ordinary working person. Is Paul Nuttall to blame on the meltdown of
:35:39. > :35:41.what happened, no matter who is leader? These are cosmic forces
:35:42. > :35:45.beyond the control of any individual at the moment, it is certainly not
:35:46. > :35:51.Paul Nuttall's .com he's been in the job for six months and in half that
:35:52. > :35:56.time he was fighting a by-election -- certainly not Paul Nuttall's
:35:57. > :35:59.fault. We have two become more professional than we have been
:36:00. > :36:05.recently. It has not been a brilliant year for Ukip one way or
:36:06. > :36:08.another, as you know, but there are prospects, in future, that are very
:36:09. > :36:13.rosy. I do not believe that the Tories will deliver on other
:36:14. > :36:17.promises that they are now making. The Welsh assembly elections are not
:36:18. > :36:21.until 2021, you are a member of that, but at that point you will not
:36:22. > :36:27.have any MEPs, because we will be out on the timetable. With this
:36:28. > :36:33.current showing he will have no end', you could be Ukip's most
:36:34. > :36:41.senior elected representative. That would be a turnout for the books! --
:36:42. > :36:44.no elected MPs. The Tories are not promoting the policies that I
:36:45. > :36:50.believe them. You will see that in the Ukip manifesto when it is
:36:51. > :37:00.shortly publish... Leaders talk mainly about the male genital
:37:01. > :37:05.mutilation and is -- female and burqas. No, when the manifesto
:37:06. > :37:12.launched, we have a lot of policies, I spoke moments ago about it, but
:37:13. > :37:16.also on foreign aid. Scrapping green taxes, to cut people's electricity
:37:17. > :37:25.bills by ?300 per year on average. There are a lot of popular policies
:37:26. > :37:29.that we have. We will hear more from that in the weeks to come.
:37:30. > :37:33.Paul Nuttall said "If the price of written leaving the year is a Tory
:37:34. > :37:39.advance after taking up this patriarch course, it is a price that
:37:40. > :37:43.Ukip is prepared to pay". That sounds like a surrender statement?
:37:44. > :37:48.It is a statement of fact, the main agenda is to get out of the EU and
:37:49. > :37:54.have full Brexit. That is why Ukip came into existence 20 years ago.
:37:55. > :37:58.When it is achieved, we go back to the normal political battle lines.
:37:59. > :38:02.Niall Hamilton in Cardiff, thank you very much for joining us.
:38:03. > :38:04.It's just gone 11.35am, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
:38:05. > :38:07.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now
:38:08. > :38:11.Coming up here in 20 minutes - we'll be talking about the French
:38:12. > :38:12.presidential election ahead of tonight's result.
:38:13. > :38:22.First, though, the Sunday Politics where you are.
:38:23. > :38:27.The capital has been a vote-free zone.
:38:28. > :38:30.No elections here this week - but plenty to think about.
:38:31. > :38:32.On the margins of the city in particular, after
:38:33. > :38:45.Especially in Essex where Labour lost the little it had, and Ukip
:38:46. > :38:49.Which is why we're pleased - to help us understand
:38:50. > :38:51.what's next for the party - to have with us Peter Whittle,
:38:52. > :38:54.its Deputy Leader and one of two members of the London Assembly.
:38:55. > :38:56.And opposite him - reflecting on the potential impact
:38:57. > :38:59.on himself and others from what we saw this week -
:39:00. > :39:01.Jon Cruddas, Labour candidate for Dagenham and Rainham.
:39:02. > :39:04.And for the Conservatives - from out west of London -
:39:05. > :39:05.we have Kwasi Kwarteng, MP for Spelthorne.
:39:06. > :39:15.John, let's start with you. Is there serious danger that London's long
:39:16. > :39:19.dominance of the capital is under threat? There is, we need to see how
:39:20. > :39:24.it plays out. With one month to go I think there will be a lot of variety
:39:25. > :39:27.at local level, depending on incumbency, and issues around
:39:28. > :39:31.planning. There will be a lot of tactical voting but a massive youth
:39:32. > :39:33.registration in the city over the next month. It is easy to predict
:39:34. > :39:48.cases over what happened in the next couple of but it will be a mixed
:39:49. > :39:51.picture with all to play for. How do we get to this, in short, how did we
:39:52. > :39:54.get to this in terms of your party? These things do not fall out of the
:39:55. > :39:57.sky. They have been developing or festering over the last 12 years,
:39:58. > :39:59.but they will play out in the next month. This is an election campaign
:40:00. > :40:02.where people will focus on the next couple of weeks. The manifesto
:40:03. > :40:05.process comes next week, I think. There is a lot to play for. People
:40:06. > :40:08.will register and get involved, and young people will get involved, I
:40:09. > :40:14.think. A lot of tactical voting at a local level. Let's not rule anything
:40:15. > :40:19.out. But when you heard the defeated candidate in Birmingham, they talked
:40:20. > :40:25.about not strongly representing enough key Labour issues, is that
:40:26. > :40:30.how you felt? It's been a long-time argument of my net have detached
:40:31. > :40:32.itself from its traditional working-class constituencies for a
:40:33. > :40:36.long time but we will see how it plays out. It did not fall out of
:40:37. > :40:41.the sky but I think that things will change over the next month and it's
:40:42. > :40:44.everything to play for. Given local MPs in London and some of the
:40:45. > :40:49.candidates, we have seen real resilience and a very strong ground
:40:50. > :40:54.game. Peter, how can it not be over? It is far from over. If I had ?1 for
:40:55. > :40:58.every time someone has got me on one of these shows and said, that is it
:40:59. > :41:04.for Ukip, I would be very rich! But I am not. The thing is, what
:41:05. > :41:09.happened this time, what was bad, the local election results were bad,
:41:10. > :41:14.not putting a gloss on it in that way, but it was extremely unusual
:41:15. > :41:19.circumstances for us. A lot of Ukip voters did go and vote for the
:41:20. > :41:25.Tories. A lot of the Ukip voters are, if you like, country before
:41:26. > :41:30.party. Nothing wrong with that, but what will happen is that we are only
:41:31. > :41:33.halfway through this. We have been low before, and we will come back
:41:34. > :41:38.when it becomes apparent that the Prime Minister is backsliding and
:41:39. > :41:44.not really going for proper Brexit. People are not getting what they are
:41:45. > :41:49.voting for. So will you not stand in a lot of the 73 London
:41:50. > :41:52.constituencies? I don't think we are covered... How many are you
:41:53. > :41:56.standing? I'm not certain of the number that we are covered all over
:41:57. > :42:02.the country. There are only a few seats where there have been added
:42:03. > :42:08.Brexit supporters... You will go for a majority of London seats, you have
:42:09. > :42:13.no fear that your votes will not be wiped out? People have too have our
:42:14. > :42:18.name on the ballot to vote. It is as simple as that. I've always been a
:42:19. > :42:23.great believer in that, it is a few constituencies, nationally, where we
:42:24. > :42:26.won't put someone up. The main point is, look, we still have 350
:42:27. > :42:31.councillors. People think that we are wiped out across the country. We
:42:32. > :42:36.have gone up in the opinion polls today. What is that about? Because
:42:37. > :42:41.it directly relates to your seat and a number of others out there, if
:42:42. > :42:48.Ukip implode again, and the votes disappears in one month, and goes to
:42:49. > :42:52.the Conservatives as we saw across the country, you will lose a seat?
:42:53. > :42:55.The Tories were confident on the day that they knocked me out, it was a
:42:56. > :43:01.key marginal, Ukip thought they had won that seat... It's very likely in
:43:02. > :43:05.my seat! The results of the last couple of days have shown in more
:43:06. > :43:10.traditional working class seats, in Sandwell 's, or the Tees Valley,
:43:11. > :43:20.there is more resilient Ukip then in the Cambridges or the Shires. It's
:43:21. > :43:25.an interesting debate. Very interesting. How can you lose? I
:43:26. > :43:30.agree with John in the sense that four weeks is a long time. A
:43:31. > :43:33.volatile election, lots going on. The Prime Minister struck the right
:43:34. > :43:37.note when she said she wasn't taking everything for granted, every vote
:43:38. > :43:40.counts, and there is a huge contrast between the strong and stable
:43:41. > :43:45.Theresa May that people are picking up on. And a completely chaotic
:43:46. > :43:49.opposition. How can you lose? I think the way that we can lose is
:43:50. > :43:53.being complacent, taking people for granted. What we are seeing from the
:43:54. > :43:59.Ukip is a pretty desperate situation, where they lost, I think,
:44:00. > :44:04.146 councillors, something like that? Gaining one. It is a real
:44:05. > :44:08.problem. Just as we sit here now, and in terms of the locals and a
:44:09. > :44:13.focus on Brexit, what are the policy winners? We have a good offer on a
:44:14. > :44:18.lot of things, ridiculously on housing. We've got a plan to build
:44:19. > :44:23.more houses. -- particularly on housing. We have a good policy on
:44:24. > :44:30.economy and economic stability, getting a good Brexit deal. It's
:44:31. > :44:32.like you've read our running order! I am particularly interested in
:44:33. > :44:40.extending grammar schools, that's a really good policy... It's a good
:44:41. > :44:44.idea. And we are going to push that. We have that particularly in London,
:44:45. > :44:45.we will not deal with it today but London is a city of the rich and
:44:46. > :44:47.poor. And in some places -
:44:48. > :44:50.granted, fewer and fewer - Take the constituency
:44:51. > :44:52.of Westminster North. It's a seat which could be
:44:53. > :44:55.hit by the Ukip effect But it's also a good place to assess
:44:56. > :44:59.the parties' record on, Westminster North might
:45:00. > :45:05.have a claim to being the most Home to some of the richest
:45:06. > :45:10.people in the whole world, Politically, too, it is
:45:11. > :45:16.split down the middle. But one side has had
:45:17. > :45:20.the upper hand... Now, this doesn't look an awful lot
:45:21. > :45:23.like what most people would think of as a classic Labour constituency,
:45:24. > :45:26.but for the last two decades that is what it has been -
:45:27. > :45:30.home to the Labour MP Karen Buck. Conservatives, though,
:45:31. > :45:33.have had their eyes on it. It has been a top Tory target in all
:45:34. > :45:36.of the last general elections. This is the Labour
:45:37. > :45:39.machine in action. At three o'clock on a
:45:40. > :45:42.Thursday afternoon... So, you will be voting
:45:43. > :45:47.Labour in June? They are hoping to upset
:45:48. > :45:51.the Conservatives once again. They really expected to win
:45:52. > :45:55.in 2010, and locally, they had their tails up
:45:56. > :46:00.in 2015 as well. I can only put it down to hopefully
:46:01. > :46:03.the work that I have A catalogue of casework
:46:04. > :46:08.and a local reputation. Reflected in the leaflets
:46:09. > :46:15.going through the doors... The thing that strikes me is it says
:46:16. > :46:17."Re-elect Karen Buck". As I have said to you,
:46:18. > :46:22.as far as I am concerned, this campaign is 650 individual
:46:23. > :46:25.elections, and we are going to be campaigning on that
:46:26. > :46:30.basis in the local area. I am standing as the local MP
:46:31. > :46:34.and I'm pinning on my record. But in this polarised seat,
:46:35. > :46:41.the Conservative candidate, Lindsey Hall, is fighting an almost
:46:42. > :46:44.opposite campaign, where she is keen to talk about Jeremy Corbyn
:46:45. > :46:48.wherever possible. We have had a very strong local
:46:49. > :46:52.incumbent, Karen Buck, for 28 years, and she is hard to tip out but I'm
:46:53. > :46:55.going to do it this time! What is going to make
:46:56. > :46:58.the difference this time? One of them is, of course, I am now
:46:59. > :47:04.equally as well known as locally. I have served on Westminster
:47:05. > :47:07.Council for ten years. Of course, we have
:47:08. > :47:09.the Corbyn factor. That changes everything,
:47:10. > :47:12.because at the end of the day, this election is a choice,
:47:13. > :47:15.a clear choice, between Theresa May, strong and stable leadership,
:47:16. > :47:17.or a coalition of chaos For anyone wondering who to vote
:47:18. > :47:25.for, Karen Buck or Lindsey Hall, if you want Jeremy Corbyn -
:47:26. > :47:28.vote for Karen Buck! The Liberal Democrats are also
:47:29. > :47:30.standing in this heavily Remain constituency,
:47:31. > :47:32.hoping their anti-Brexit We are the only party offering
:47:33. > :47:39.a second referendum. We believe Brexit is a process that
:47:40. > :47:41.began with democracy Ukip are not contesting the seat,
:47:42. > :47:46.but the Green Party are. We asked for an interview
:47:47. > :47:52.but she was not available. But, in this seat of great contrasts
:47:53. > :47:56.and completely different campaigns, it is very difficult to predict
:47:57. > :48:10.who will be the new MP Westminster by name, but in that
:48:11. > :48:17.constituency, I think the wood used to be the poorest in the country.
:48:18. > :48:22.Maybe 4-5 out east which are poorer. But when the Conservatives offer for
:48:23. > :48:28.the huge cohort of people with very low incomes, poor living conditions
:48:29. > :48:32.etc? The worst thing for people on low income is to have an unstable
:48:33. > :48:37.and weak government. Lindsay Hawker did very well when she said it is a
:48:38. > :48:44.stark contrast between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn. -- Lindsay Hawker
:48:45. > :48:47.did very well. In my constituency and John's constituency, Corbyn's
:48:48. > :48:52.lack of leadership and his nonsensical proposition is brought
:48:53. > :48:54.up again and again. What policies will counter Jeremy Corbyn, the
:48:55. > :49:00.Labour policies which will be focused on helping the people who
:49:01. > :49:04.are less well off? The government has a good record on this. Looking
:49:05. > :49:09.at the personal allowance, when I came into Parliament in 2010, it was
:49:10. > :49:14.something like ?6,000. We have almost doubled it to more than
:49:15. > :49:18.?11,500 before you start paying tax, and that is a huge achievement to
:49:19. > :49:21.take that many people on low incomes out of the tax bracket. That is
:49:22. > :49:26.something we have done in government and we have a good record. I will
:49:27. > :49:30.ask you about the Labour proposal, but first, John, there will be an
:49:31. > :49:36.increase in income tax for people over ?80,000, and you welcome that?
:49:37. > :49:42.I do. We will see the details on the manifesto comes out. You welcome the
:49:43. > :49:49.principal? How much more would you be prepared...? I don't know... I
:49:50. > :49:55.accept we are going to see... He is consulting people like you. I don't
:49:56. > :49:58.know precisely the thresholds, but in principle I accept those who earn
:49:59. > :50:02.a bit more should contribute more in terms of rebuilding public services.
:50:03. > :50:06.I think we can win that argument if we make it in those terms. I saw
:50:07. > :50:11.John MacDonald on TV this morning, he put on a very compelling case
:50:12. > :50:18.about why we should ask people to contribute modestly more. Would
:50:19. > :50:21.modest be a couple of pence? I don't know precisely. We are in a
:50:22. > :50:26.preannouncement in terms of the manifesto, so we are a bit behind
:50:27. > :50:31.the eight ball... I think he is setting out the principle which I
:50:32. > :50:34.fully support. To accept it is a tax rise that would have a
:50:35. > :50:36.disproportionate effect on London and could be damaging to your
:50:37. > :50:42.support in parts of London, not least parts of that constituency
:50:43. > :50:49.quite that it is very much a tale of two cities. It is people who are
:50:50. > :50:52.struggling in terms of the cost of living, the housing costs,
:50:53. > :50:55.exponentially rising all the time, the transport costs, so we need to
:50:56. > :51:00.help those people by supporting them and not levying national insurance
:51:01. > :51:06.or tax increases on those below ?80,000. Does that amount help you
:51:07. > :51:10.get a house anywhere in central London? Very few people in my
:51:11. > :51:18.constituency earning more than 80,000. It is proportionate, and I
:51:19. > :51:23.think it will tap into a nerve over the next month. Peter, do you agree
:51:24. > :51:30.that some of your supporters would like that policy? Not really, I
:51:31. > :51:33.think it is the estate-macro way around. It is not addressing the
:51:34. > :51:43.problem for Labour when it comes to housing. -- the wrong way around.
:51:44. > :51:50.Let's understand the principle of taxation, would you put it up? This
:51:51. > :51:56.is the sort of 1970s approach, where you start to tax in a way those who
:51:57. > :52:01.are successful. London is increasingly a place where you can't
:52:02. > :52:08.use examples, because you have this extraordinary kind of global class
:52:09. > :52:12.of people who have no... We have clearly seen, there will be more put
:52:13. > :52:16.on there, the Lib Dems are saying they would put a penny on for the
:52:17. > :52:20.National Health Service, so we want to be clear from the Conservatives
:52:21. > :52:24.about what they are prepared to do, to raise to put more on public
:52:25. > :52:31.services? I am sure you will see plenty in our manifesto... VAT has
:52:32. > :52:37.been ruled out. Income tax? Would you be prepared to see it go up? We
:52:38. > :52:43.are not about raising taxes as a party. The Labour approach, they are
:52:44. > :52:47.going back to the 1970s approach. 1992, I wasn't old enough to vote
:52:48. > :52:51.but I remember Labour had a similar policy. They said people earning
:52:52. > :52:55.over ?40,000 would have to pay more tax and that was a disaster for
:52:56. > :52:59.them. How will you give the schools the money they need, and the
:53:00. > :53:02.hospitals? It was a disaster for them in the context of London and
:53:03. > :53:08.the south-east, and it is important to get that across. I'm going to
:53:09. > :53:11.Ealing Central this afternoon. Many people in marginals will be
:53:12. > :53:16.surprised and upset to hear that Labour thinks people on ?80,000 in
:53:17. > :53:22.the capital are super-rich, because they are not. I don't think people
:53:23. > :53:28.will see it that way. It is an argument we are prepared to have,
:53:29. > :53:34.those over ?80,000 with a modest... It is a reworking of the policy in
:53:35. > :53:41.1992. ?40,000 is very different to ?80,000. The service desperately
:53:42. > :53:46.need more money. It is the politics of envy, in a way. Moving on to
:53:47. > :53:49.housing, has something fundamental shifted in the housing debate?
:53:50. > :53:52.So remote has the prospect of owning a home become
:53:53. > :53:55.for so many in the capital, the political narrative has altered.
:53:56. > :53:57.And even the Conservatives - the party of property,
:53:58. > :54:01.the mother of Right To Buy - are having to change their tune.
:54:02. > :54:06.For decades, owning your own home was a political sacred cow.
:54:07. > :54:08.Its appeal cemented with the Thatcher government's
:54:09. > :54:14.Mr and Mrs Barker applied to buy their house...
:54:15. > :54:17.But when the government launched their housing
:54:18. > :54:19.White Paper earlier this year, they did it while admitting
:54:20. > :54:24.At the same time, figures were released that showed
:54:25. > :54:26.for the first time in decades, the number of private renters
:54:27. > :54:29.outstripped the number of mortgage holders in London.
:54:30. > :54:32.What we are seeing from political parties is a concerted
:54:33. > :54:35.effort to court renters as much as homeowners.
:54:36. > :54:39.Renters need to be taken seriously, especially in London.
:54:40. > :54:46.Homeowners are a minority now in the capital because an affordable
:54:47. > :54:48.Homeowners are a minority now in the capital because unaffordable
:54:49. > :54:50.house prices mean that so many people are renting.
:54:51. > :54:53.They desperately need politicians from all parties to offer them
:54:54. > :54:55.some meaningful change going into the election.
:54:56. > :54:57.More than twice as much council housing being built...
:54:58. > :54:59.I want a Labour government that builds council housing!
:55:00. > :55:04.Party manifestos are yet to be finalised,
:55:05. > :55:07.but the Conservatives are likely to stick with the key planks
:55:08. > :55:11.of the housing White Paper, which pledges a quarter of a million
:55:12. > :55:16.homes built each year, a lifetime ISA for first-time buyers,
:55:17. > :55:20.a ban on letting agent fees, and a clampdown on rogue landlords.
:55:21. > :55:24.Last year, 30,000 homes were built in London.
:55:25. > :55:27.That is half the rate that we need to build at.
:55:28. > :55:30.They are beginning to suggest that there is a bigger role
:55:31. > :55:33.for the rented sector, and that there is more to be done
:55:34. > :55:39.Whether it is ambitious enough for the target, I think one has
:55:40. > :55:42.Meanwhile, Labour are offering a similar pledge
:55:43. > :55:47.But they also say that half of them will be council houses.
:55:48. > :55:49.They have promised a dedicated housing ministry,
:55:50. > :55:54.and want to introduce a landlord licensing scheme.
:55:55. > :55:56.I don't think we will ever see London totally turning
:55:57. > :56:02.What we got from the Labour Party is quite a few headline figures so far.
:56:03. > :56:06.It is unfair to say that is all we are going to get,
:56:07. > :56:08.we still have a manifesto, but it is quite an easy
:56:09. > :56:12."We will build this many homes and half of them
:56:13. > :56:15.Without saying how you are going to pay for it,
:56:16. > :56:19.I asked the main parties for their take on housing.
:56:20. > :56:24.When you are trying to save up to buy, for these ludicrously
:56:25. > :56:27.expensive houses, you cannot pay out more than half your salary in rent.
:56:28. > :56:29.We should not build on the green belt, we should build
:56:30. > :56:31.on brownfield sites, when we are going
:56:32. > :56:34.There is enough brownfield land around to build
:56:35. > :56:37.The Lib Dems have pledged to build 300,000 homes
:56:38. > :56:41.But also, we've got to tackle the private rented sector.
:56:42. > :56:46.One in four Londoners rent privately.
:56:47. > :56:48.# Our house in the middle of our street...#.
:56:49. > :56:51.So, your house, whether you own or rent it,
:56:52. > :56:54.is likely to have a policy, perhaps with a politician attached,
:56:55. > :57:08.Peter, alone among the main parties, you don't believe it's a question of
:57:09. > :57:10.numbers or building any more? No, we have we reached a low in
:57:11. > :57:16.house-building, no one would doubt that. We believe strongly in council
:57:17. > :57:21.housing, we want to see a golden age of council housing. It is one of the
:57:22. > :57:26.only ways forward. But what I would say is, when I went through a
:57:27. > :57:28.campaign last year, and now the general election campaign, no one
:57:29. > :57:34.will really talk about the elephant in the room. Like we saw in the
:57:35. > :57:38.film, even if you build 60,000 new homes every year in London, it would
:57:39. > :57:45.never be enough to deal with the sheer volume of people coming in. To
:57:46. > :57:51.say you would only talk about supply and not demand is crazy. But that is
:57:52. > :57:56.what we are doing. Is that the problem with the housing crisis, too
:57:57. > :58:00.many people coming from elsewhere? It's an issue, and I don't think it
:58:01. > :58:05.is raised often enough. Clearly demand is a huge factor in terms of
:58:06. > :58:10.driving up house prices. Do we expect things to get better after
:58:11. > :58:13.Brexit? I hope we have more control of the numbers, absolutely. I stood
:58:14. > :58:18.twice on a manifesto which pledged tens of thousands, and I hope to get
:58:19. > :58:26.that back... Which will have no effect on the housing? -- a knock-on
:58:27. > :58:31.effect? I think it's reasonable to suggest that a factor driving up
:58:32. > :58:37.house prices is demand, people coming into the country. That seems
:58:38. > :58:41.obvious. It is treated as though it is insane, but the fact is London's
:58:42. > :58:47.population is going up by 1 million per decade. To say that has nothing
:58:48. > :58:53.to do with it... The pressure coming from people coming from elsewhere is
:58:54. > :58:57.a key issue. Obviously. Surging into the city, it places pressure on the
:58:58. > :59:04.big services including houses, that is self evident. There is a number
:59:05. > :59:07.of different elements. In south Havering, my constituency, the Tory
:59:08. > :59:14.council are planning to build 30,000 houses and concrete over... Try to
:59:15. > :59:19.keep it broad. What do you anticipate about providing more
:59:20. > :59:24.council housing? Will you allow local authorities and councils to
:59:25. > :59:28.borrow? It looks like it, yes. As I say, we are yet to see the
:59:29. > :59:33.manifesto, but if you are saying 1 million homes in five years, half of
:59:34. > :59:38.which will be council housing is, that has huge implications. The
:59:39. > :59:45.implication for the balance sheet...? I have been involved in
:59:46. > :59:49.Labour Party policy for a long time and that was always the elephant in
:59:50. > :59:53.the room. In government and out, we were never fully prepared to grasp
:59:54. > :59:58.it, but it looks like we will now, and I welcome that. And that is
:59:59. > :00:01.sensible, because you are borrowing for investment. You can't argue for
:00:02. > :00:07.that, Mrs Thatcher did, but new times? If we don't have the money,
:00:08. > :00:10.you have to find it through raising taxes, which you are prepared to do
:00:11. > :00:16.on fat cats as you describe them, anyone over ?80,000, and you will
:00:17. > :00:24.have to borrow considerable money. This is where Labour gets into the
:00:25. > :00:30.familiar problems. They have unfunded tax spending plans and they
:00:31. > :00:35.never get the money... I am told not one social house, social housing,
:00:36. > :00:42.typically old council house, last year. Is that where you want to be?
:00:43. > :00:47.I hate to play not devil's advocate but to suggest that the Labour
:00:48. > :00:50.government between 97-2010, that was the lowest form of social housing
:00:51. > :00:55.investment, the lowest form of housing start-ups that we had ever
:00:56. > :00:59.seen. That is part of the problem we have now, we are playing catch-up.
:01:00. > :01:04.The government acknowledge is that, and that is why we say we have to
:01:05. > :01:09.build 250,000 new homes per year to catch up from the deficit left by
:01:10. > :01:12.Labour. We could get into definitions with council housing,
:01:13. > :01:15.housing associations and investment, but we have run out of time, thank
:01:16. > :01:29.you. Andrew. Four weeks to go until polling day
:01:30. > :01:33.on the 8th of June, what will the party strategies be for the
:01:34. > :01:40.remaining four weeks? Let's begin with the Conservatives. Do they just
:01:41. > :01:44.try to continue to play it safe for four weeks? Yes, with this important
:01:45. > :01:48.qualification. Theresa May Corp this election to get her own personal
:01:49. > :01:52.mandate partly, partly because she thought she would win big but to get
:01:53. > :01:58.her own personal mandate. Therefore, she needs to define it. In her own
:01:59. > :02:02.interests and to do with accountability to the country. So
:02:03. > :02:07.clearly, they will not take risks when they are so far ahead in the
:02:08. > :02:09.polls. What they do say in the manifesto matters in
:02:10. > :02:16.terms of the space that she has in the coming years to define her
:02:17. > :02:21.leadership against David Cameron 's. She is a free figure, partly on the
:02:22. > :02:31.basis of what she says as to how big she wins. They cannot just play it
:02:32. > :02:36.safe and repeat their mantra of strong and stable leadership, if she
:02:37. > :02:41.is going to claim her own mandate, they need the top policy? Yes, and
:02:42. > :02:44.what is unusual about this is that the manifesto matters far more
:02:45. > :02:47.because of what they need to do with it afterwards, than in terms of
:02:48. > :02:53.whether it is going to win anybody over now. Clearly, the strategy is
:02:54. > :02:56.yes, we do have two layout out a few things, there are interesting
:02:57. > :03:00.debates as to whether, for example, they will still commit to this
:03:01. > :03:04.ambition of reducing immigration to the tens of thousands, we do not
:03:05. > :03:07.know the answer yet. It is a question on whether she is setting
:03:08. > :03:15.herself up for difficulties later on. It will be a short manifesto, I
:03:16. > :03:19.would venture to guess? It is in her interests to be as noncommittal as
:03:20. > :03:23.possible, that argues for a short manifesto but what does strike me
:03:24. > :03:27.about the Conservative campaign, aside from the ambiguity on policy,
:03:28. > :03:33.is how personal it is. I think Theresa May, in her most recent
:03:34. > :03:36.speech, referred to "My local candidates", rather than
:03:37. > :03:43.Parliamentary candidates, very much framing it as a presidential
:03:44. > :03:47.candidate in France or the USA. Not a rational on her part. Everything I
:03:48. > :03:52.hear from the MPs on the ground and the focus groups being done by the
:03:53. > :03:56.parties, is that a big chunk of the population personally identify with
:03:57. > :03:59.her. If you can wrap up Middle England into a physical object and
:04:00. > :04:05.embody it in a person, it would be her. Although Jeremy Corbyn's
:04:06. > :04:08.unpopularity accounts for a big slice of her popularity, she has
:04:09. > :04:12.done a good job of bonding with the public. We never saw that coming!
:04:13. > :04:16.But you may well be right. That is happening now. Labour say it wants
:04:17. > :04:21.the Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell to play a more prominent role in the
:04:22. > :04:24.Labour campaign, he was on The Andrew Marr Show this morning and he
:04:25. > :04:29.was asked if he was a Marxist, he denied that he was. It surprised me
:04:30. > :04:36.as I had seen tape from before saying that he was proud of it.
:04:37. > :04:41.Let's look now and then. Are you a Marxist? I believe that there is a
:04:42. > :04:46.lot to learn... Yes or no? I believe that there is a lot to learn from
:04:47. > :04:49.reading capital, that is recommended not only by me but measuring
:04:50. > :04:57.economists as well. I also believe that in the long tradition of the
:04:58. > :05:01.Labour Party... We need to demand systemic change. I am a Marxist.
:05:02. > :05:06.This is a classic crisis of the economy. A capitalist crisis. I've
:05:07. > :05:13.been waiting for this for a generation! That was from about four
:05:14. > :05:17.years ago. No, I'm not a Marxist, yes, I am a Marxist... I've been
:05:18. > :05:21.waiting for the Marxist revolution my whole life... Does this kind of
:05:22. > :05:27.thing matter? Yes, but in fairness, I think he is a really good
:05:28. > :05:30.interviewee. The Shadow Cabinet have untested figures in a national
:05:31. > :05:36.campaign. None have ever been exposed at any level to a national
:05:37. > :05:41.media campaign that they are about to experience. He is the best
:05:42. > :05:46.interviewee. In fairness to him, when he gave that clip four years
:05:47. > :05:49.ago, I bet he never dream that he would be in a senior front bench
:05:50. > :05:54.position. But the background is clear. They are of the left, and I
:05:55. > :06:00.think they would all have described it. Jeremy Corbyn would have done,
:06:01. > :06:04.he is close to being like Tony Benn. There are about four Labour campaign
:06:05. > :06:08.is being fought in this election. Their campaign, the old Shadow
:06:09. > :06:13.Cabinet, campaigning in constituencies, but not identifying
:06:14. > :06:20.with that campaign. There is the former Labour leader Tony Blair. Is
:06:21. > :06:23.it damaging? I think so, if they could be damaged any further, I
:06:24. > :06:27.could see all of the Labour MPs with their heads in their hands. What I
:06:28. > :06:31.am hearing from Labour MPs is that there is not one of them who do not
:06:32. > :06:36.feel that they have a horrendous battle on their hands. These will be
:06:37. > :06:40.very individual local campaigns, where local MPs are winning despite
:06:41. > :06:45.the party leadership and not because of it. Already, talk is turning to
:06:46. > :06:49.what happens next. Is there anyway that Jeremy Corbyn, giving a
:06:50. > :06:55.horrendous set of general election results as many anticipate, may stay
:06:56. > :07:00.on all the same? It is not clear that even if the polls are right,
:07:01. > :07:06.that Mr Corbyn will go? John McDonnell implied it might not be
:07:07. > :07:10.the case but previously, he said it would be. What do you make of
:07:11. > :07:15.reports that the Labour strategy is not, I cannot quite believe I am
:07:16. > :07:20.saying this, not to win seats but maximise a share of the vote. If
:07:21. > :07:24.they do better than Ed Miliband with 30.5% of the vote, they believe they
:07:25. > :07:29.live to fight another day? Yes, it reminded me of Tony Benn's speech
:07:30. > :07:33.after the 1983 election where they said as bad as the Parliamentary
:07:34. > :07:37.defeat was there were 8 million votes for socialism. A big section
:07:38. > :07:45.of public opinion voted for that manifesto. I wonder whether that is
:07:46. > :07:50.Corbyn's supporters best chance of holding onto power. Whether they can
:07:51. > :07:55.say that those votes are a platform on which we can build. That said,
:07:56. > :07:58.even moderate Labour MPs and desperate for a quick leadership
:07:59. > :08:03.contest. I hear a lot of them say that they would like to leave it for
:08:04. > :08:07.one year. Maybe have Tom Watson as an acting Labour leader. He would
:08:08. > :08:10.still have a mandate. Give the top party a chance to regroup and get
:08:11. > :08:14.rid of some of its problems and decide where it stands on policy.
:08:15. > :08:18.Most importantly, for potential candidates to show what they are
:08:19. > :08:24.made of, rather than lurching straight into an Yvette Cooper
:08:25. > :08:31.Coronation. 30 seconds on the Liberal Democrats, their strategy
:08:32. > :08:39.was to mop up the Remain vote. Uncertain about the Brexit party in
:08:40. > :08:41.demise. Ukip. The remain as have a dilemma, the little Democrats are
:08:42. > :08:48.not a strong enough vessel with 89 MPs to risk all ongoing for them --
:08:49. > :08:53.the Liberal Democrats. Labour do not know where they stand on Brexit.
:08:54. > :09:02.There is not a robust alternative vessel for what is now a pro-Brexit
:09:03. > :09:04.Conservative Party. At the moment. Four weeks to go, but not for
:09:05. > :09:06.France... France has been voting since early
:09:07. > :09:09.this morning, and we should get a first estimate of who will be
:09:10. > :09:12.the country's next President Just to warn you there are some
:09:13. > :09:16.flashing images coming up. The choice in France
:09:17. > :09:18.is between a centre-left liberal reformer Emmanuel Macron
:09:19. > :09:20.and a right-wing nationalist Marine Le Pen - both have been
:09:21. > :09:22.casting their votes this morning. The two candidates topped
:09:23. > :09:25.a field of 11 presidential hopefuls in the first
:09:26. > :09:27.round of elections last month. The campaign has been marked
:09:28. > :09:29.by its unpredictability, and in a final twist on Friday
:09:30. > :09:35.evening, just before campaigning officially ended,
:09:36. > :09:37.Mr Macron's En Marche! group said it had been the victim
:09:38. > :09:43.of a "massive" hack, with a trove of documents
:09:44. > :09:45.released online. The Macron team said real documents
:09:46. > :09:48.were mixed up with fake ones, and electoral authorities warned
:09:49. > :09:50.media and the public that spreading details of the leaks would breach
:09:51. > :10:01.strict election rules. I'm joined now from
:10:02. > :10:14.Paris by the journalist As I left Paris recently, everybody
:10:15. > :10:17.told me that there was the consensus that Mr Macron would win, and win
:10:18. > :10:23.pretty comfortable you. Is there any reason to doubt that? -- pretty
:10:24. > :10:28.comfortably. I don't think so, there have been so many people left and
:10:29. > :10:33.right, former candidates who have decided that it was more important
:10:34. > :10:36.to vote for Macron, even if it was agreed with him, then run the risk
:10:37. > :10:44.of having Marine Le Pen as president. I think the spread is now
:10:45. > :10:47.20 points, 60% to Macron, 40% to Le Pen. So outside of the margin of
:10:48. > :10:53.error that it would take something huge for this to be observed. If the
:10:54. > :11:01.polls are right and Mr Macron wins, he has to put together a government,
:11:02. > :11:06.and in May there is a Coronation, then he faces parliamentary
:11:07. > :11:10.elections in June and could face a fractured parliament where he does
:11:11. > :11:13.not have a clear majority for his reforms. He could then faced
:11:14. > :11:19.difficulties in getting his programme through? I think that
:11:20. > :11:25.right now, with how things are looking, considering you have one
:11:26. > :11:30.half of the Republican party, the Conservative Party, they are making
:11:31. > :11:34.clear sides, not only that they want to support Macron but are supporting
:11:35. > :11:39.him actively. It means looking at the equivalent of the German party,
:11:40. > :11:44.the great coalition. Depending on how many seats established parties
:11:45. > :11:53.keep in the house committee may very well have a Republican Prime
:11:54. > :12:03.Minister, rather than having an adversarial MP, he may have someone
:12:04. > :12:10.who is relatively unknown outside of France, and a young woman. Contended
:12:11. > :12:16.that lost the Parez mayorship three years ago. She is a scientist and
:12:17. > :12:21.has been secretary of state. She would be an interesting coalition
:12:22. > :12:27.Prime Minister. Finally, Marine Le Pen, if she goes down to defeat a
:12:28. > :12:34.night, does she have the stomach and ambition, and the energy, to try it
:12:35. > :12:39.all again in 2022? She has all of that. The question is, would they
:12:40. > :12:44.let her? How badly would she lose? Her niece, now 27, a hard-working
:12:45. > :12:52.and steady person, unlike Marine Le Pen, who flunked her do paid --
:12:53. > :13:00.debate, her niece may decide that 2022 is her turn. Yet another Le
:13:01. > :13:04.Pen! All right, we will see. Just five years to wait, but only a few
:13:05. > :13:06.hours until the results of the election tonight.
:13:07. > :13:11.And we will get the exit polls here on the BBC. Given the exit polls
:13:12. > :13:15.will give as a pretty fair indication of what the result is
:13:16. > :13:19.going to be tonight. That will be on BBC news. That's all for today.
:13:20. > :13:21.The Daily Politics will cover every turn of this election campaign,
:13:22. > :13:26.And we're back here on BBC One at our usual time Next Sunday.
:13:27. > :13:29.Remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.