0:00:37 > 0:00:39Morning everyone, and welcome to the Sunday Politics.
0:00:39 > 0:00:40I'm Sarah Smith.
0:00:40 > 0:00:42And this is your guide to all the big stories that
0:00:42 > 0:00:47are shaping politics this weekend, and a few of the smaller ones too.
0:00:47 > 0:00:49Philip Hammond is getting ready to deliver his latest Budget
0:00:49 > 0:00:52on Wednesday and he's not short of advice - to spend more,
0:00:52 > 0:00:55show restraint, even to stop being an Eyore -
0:00:55 > 0:01:00but can he change the direction of the country and his government?
0:01:00 > 0:01:02Conservative Party darling Jacob Rees-Mogg has
0:01:02 > 0:01:03some advice of his own.
0:01:03 > 0:01:06He thinks the Chancellor is being far too gloomy about Brexit
0:01:06 > 0:01:10- he joins me live to explain why.
0:01:10 > 0:01:13The former Leave campaign leader, Gisela Stuart, will be here debating
0:01:13 > 0:01:16with pro-EU campaigner Alastair Campbell, after taking
0:01:16 > 0:01:19a trip to her native Germany to speak to businesses
0:01:19 > 0:01:22about Brexit.
0:01:22 > 0:01:26And, as we wait to find out what's on the menu for this week's budget,
0:01:26 > 0:01:28we're in a diner off the A1 in Peterborough,
0:01:28 > 0:01:30finding out who people most trust with the economy -
0:01:30 > 0:01:34Philip Hammond or John McDonnell?
0:01:34 > 0:01:38In London - a tale of community, housing and football.
0:01:38 > 0:01:40Why full-time might soon be called on
0:01:40 > 0:01:44Dulwich Hamlet Football Club.
0:01:50 > 0:01:52All that coming up in the programme.
0:01:52 > 0:01:55And with me for for all of it, three journalists who've promised
0:01:55 > 0:01:58not to show off like Michael Gove by using any long economicky words -
0:01:58 > 0:02:01although I'm not sure they really know that many anyway -
0:02:01 > 0:02:04it's Tom Newton Dunn, Gaby Hinsliff and Iain Martin.
0:02:04 > 0:02:07Let's take a look at the big political stories making the news
0:02:07 > 0:02:09this Sunday morning, and as you might expect there's
0:02:09 > 0:02:12plenty of speculation about what might or not might be
0:02:12 > 0:02:14in Philip Hammond's Budget.
0:02:14 > 0:02:17The Chancellor is promising a big investment in new technology,
0:02:17 > 0:02:21including driverless cars - which could be on the road by 2021.
0:02:21 > 0:02:24He's been interviewed in the Sunday Times,
0:02:24 > 0:02:26where he talks about plans to reach the target of building
0:02:26 > 0:02:30300,000 homes every year, or the equivalent of a city
0:02:30 > 0:02:31the size of Leeds.
0:02:31 > 0:02:34That paper speculates that he's attempting to turn from "fiscal
0:02:34 > 0:02:37Phil" into "hopeful Hammond" as he tries to set out
0:02:37 > 0:02:40a vision for the country, not just a list of numbers.
0:02:40 > 0:02:43The Sunday Telegraph thinks that Mr Hammond is planning to offer
0:02:43 > 0:02:46a pay rise to nurses as part of a bid to take on Labour.
0:02:46 > 0:02:49But that hasn't impressed Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell.
0:02:49 > 0:02:52He's spoken to a number of papers and is calling for an emergency
0:02:52 > 0:02:54budget to invest in public services and help struggling households.
0:02:54 > 0:02:58So that's a taste of what you might hear on Wednesday and Mr Hammond
0:02:58 > 0:03:00and Mr McDonnell have both been appearing this morning
0:03:00 > 0:03:04on the Andrew Marr Show.
0:03:04 > 0:03:07I think Britain has a very bright future ahead of it,
0:03:07 > 0:03:10and we have to embrace the opportunities that
0:03:10 > 0:03:11a post-Brexit world will offer.
0:03:11 > 0:03:14They will be opportunities that are based on huge change,
0:03:14 > 0:03:17huge technological evolution.
0:03:17 > 0:03:20It's not always going to be easy, but the British people have shown
0:03:20 > 0:03:23time and time again that we're up for these challenges.
0:03:23 > 0:03:26For many people out there, this is a depression.
0:03:26 > 0:03:30We've had people whose wages have been cut by 10%.
0:03:30 > 0:03:31Nurses, for example.
0:03:31 > 0:03:34We've had people who are now...
0:03:34 > 0:03:391.25 million food parcels handed out in the sixth richest
0:03:39 > 0:03:40country in the world.
0:03:40 > 0:03:48That's what I call a recession for large numbers of people.
0:03:48 > 0:03:53We will be talking about Labour and their economic policies in a moment,
0:03:53 > 0:03:57but let's start with what we might expect from the budget. We will talk
0:03:57 > 0:04:01to our panel of political observers. Philip Hammond is under pressure to
0:04:01 > 0:04:06set out a bold vision and reset the government's programme. Can we
0:04:06 > 0:04:12expect that?No, we can't. We have heard enough from the Chancellor
0:04:12 > 0:04:16across various broadcast and his article in the Sunday Times. I think
0:04:16 > 0:04:24we will not be getting a bold budget. His precise words short... A
0:04:24 > 0:04:27short time ago were a balanced budget. Some Tory hearts will think.
0:04:27 > 0:04:32They desperately want something to go out and shout about, something to
0:04:32 > 0:04:36capture people's imagination, and do big and bold things, like how on
0:04:36 > 0:04:42earth are they going to build those new 300,000 houses a year? There are
0:04:42 > 0:04:49good reasons why he has chosen what appears to be a pretty staid,
0:04:49 > 0:04:54Conservative budget, and that is that they are probably unable to get
0:04:54 > 0:04:58anything bold through Parliament. His capital is so low among Tory
0:04:58 > 0:05:06MPs. If you have a minority government, it is tricky.We have
0:05:06 > 0:05:09seen ministers on programmes like this in the last few weeks putting
0:05:09 > 0:05:14in the bids for what they would like spending on, whether it be payment
0:05:14 > 0:05:18for nurses or parliament. Would he struggled to get something radical
0:05:18 > 0:05:24through the Commons?Big ideas cost money. That's the problem. Bold
0:05:24 > 0:05:30ideas are controversial. In some ways, Tory MPs are asking their
0:05:30 > 0:05:34Chancellor to do the impossible. Government is already doing
0:05:34 > 0:05:39something big and bold, which is Brexit. That has implications for
0:05:39 > 0:05:43how much money is available, how many risks you want to take with
0:05:43 > 0:05:48everything else. What is crucial is that he demonstrates a reputation
0:05:48 > 0:05:54for competence. The reputation that the Conservative government has for
0:05:54 > 0:05:58economic competence, that many people prefer them to Labour on the
0:05:58 > 0:06:02issue of economic competence. The worst thing he could do is come up
0:06:02 > 0:06:07with a big, bold idea that unravelled quickly. What they
0:06:07 > 0:06:12absolutely don't want is to come up with an exciting idea that falls
0:06:12 > 0:06:16apart three days after the budget. He is under pressure from
0:06:16 > 0:06:20Brexiteers, who are suspicious of him. Does he have to offer them
0:06:20 > 0:06:25something?Part of his problem is he has to offer so many different
0:06:25 > 0:06:28people different things. This is Philip Hammond trying to be and
0:06:28 > 0:06:37dynamic.It is hard to tell sometimes.At least in theoretical
0:06:37 > 0:06:45terms. His longer-term difficulty is that, if you look at the economic
0:06:45 > 0:06:51cycle, we are getting to a point where we are probably overdue, if
0:06:51 > 0:06:56you put Brexit to one side, overdue some kind of correction or downturn,
0:06:56 > 0:07:01if you look what has happened to asset prices globally. What will be
0:07:01 > 0:07:06worrying for the Treasury is, just as everyone is saying we should turn
0:07:06 > 0:07:12on the taps and build this or that, we might be at the top of a cycle,
0:07:12 > 0:07:17and the Treasury will want to lose something in the armoury in terms of
0:07:17 > 0:07:20probably growing the deficit if there are economic difficulties in
0:07:20 > 0:07:25the next two years, and then there is Brexit as well.It sounds
0:07:25 > 0:07:30impossible.I think so. Talking to his friends and colleagues over the
0:07:30 > 0:07:35last few days, he had to make a call, which was precisely how much
0:07:35 > 0:07:41can I get away with, with my political capital being as low as it
0:07:41 > 0:07:48is, with the mixed problems he had at the last budget, and a lot of the
0:07:48 > 0:07:52party disliking his approach to Brexit. He is damned if he is,
0:07:52 > 0:08:01damned if he doesn't. Universal Credit, we are expecting a reduction
0:08:01 > 0:08:09in the time it takes to wait, business rates, affected by high
0:08:09 > 0:08:13inflation... I think we will see a problem fixing budget which will
0:08:13 > 0:08:18probably do quite a lot of important spadework in many areas.We will
0:08:18 > 0:08:24pick up on some of this later in the programme.
0:08:24 > 0:08:26Let's speak now to the Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg, this week
0:08:26 > 0:08:29he helpfully launched an alternative "budget for Brexit" and advised
0:08:29 > 0:08:31the Chancellor to be less gloomy about the consequences
0:08:31 > 0:08:35of leaving the EU.
0:08:35 > 0:08:39Thank you for joining us. Your alternative budget is pretty
0:08:39 > 0:08:47radical. Almost half corporation tax, Cap Stamp duty to help the
0:08:47 > 0:08:52London market. It seems you are advocating the opposite from what we
0:08:52 > 0:08:56will hear from your Chancellor on Wednesday.There are two parts to
0:08:56 > 0:09:01the proposals I suggested. One is that we should show that after we
0:09:01 > 0:09:06have left the European Union, the UK is open to the rest of the world. It
0:09:06 > 0:09:10is about opening up to the rest of the world. Secondly, looking at the
0:09:10 > 0:09:15modelling that has been done by the Treasury and some other forecasters,
0:09:15 > 0:09:20which has been so comprehensively wrong. The forecasts made about what
0:09:20 > 0:09:27would happen after Brexit have turned out to be hopelessly false.
0:09:27 > 0:09:32The team at Cardiff University have done some modelling based on the
0:09:32 > 0:09:35classical economic principles and what happens if you move to free
0:09:35 > 0:09:41trade that would be very positive for the economy.You are predicting
0:09:41 > 0:09:48a Brexit dividend of £135 billion, which sounds fantastic. Why are you
0:09:48 > 0:09:53right, and everybody else, including the Bank of England and the
0:09:53 > 0:09:56Institute for Fiscal Studies, why are they all wrong?It depends on
0:09:56 > 0:10:02the type of modelling. The modelling that have been done by the Treasury
0:10:02 > 0:10:05have been based on gravity models, which work on the basis of the
0:10:05 > 0:10:09nearness of the market and the size of the economy you are trading with.
0:10:09 > 0:10:15These have been wrong in the past. They predicted that if we joined the
0:10:15 > 0:10:22euro, trade would grow by 300%. That was then revised down to 200%, but
0:10:22 > 0:10:28it is fantasyland. The model I am working on, by Sir Patrick Minford,
0:10:28 > 0:10:36who has a record of getting these things right. He was right about the
0:10:36 > 0:10:41exchange rate mechanism, right about the euro.Being right in the past
0:10:41 > 0:10:45doesn't mean you are right about the future. Why do you think the
0:10:45 > 0:10:50Treasury will not pick up the same numbers, if this is so obvious to
0:10:50 > 0:10:55you?I think the Treasury was humiliated by the errors in its
0:10:55 > 0:11:00forecast prior to Brexit, and is trying to defend its position. The
0:11:00 > 0:11:04short-term economic consequences of a vote to leave was one of the most
0:11:04 > 0:11:09dishonest documents to come out of the Treasury, purely a piece of
0:11:09 > 0:11:12political propaganda. They are wounded by that and sticking to the
0:11:12 > 0:11:18same script, rather than looking at other forecasts and other experts.
0:11:18 > 0:11:21You think the governor of the Bank of England is an enemy of Brexit,
0:11:21 > 0:11:26and it sounds like you think the Treasury is opposed to it. As the
0:11:26 > 0:11:31Chancellor fallen under their spell as well, and been persuaded to be an
0:11:31 > 0:11:37enemy of Brexit?I have admiration the Chancellor, but George Osborne,
0:11:37 > 0:11:42his predecessor, was the architect of Project Fear. He was too close to
0:11:42 > 0:11:46the Bank of England and lost his independence. That is what needs to
0:11:46 > 0:11:53change. It is an opportunity in the budget for Philip Hammond to show he
0:11:53 > 0:11:57is putting aside the Treasury's mistakes in the past. It is very
0:11:57 > 0:12:03encouraging what he is saying this morning, about a more positive
0:12:03 > 0:12:07approach to Brexit.Lord Lawson has accused Philip Hammond of being very
0:12:07 > 0:12:14close to sabotage on Brexit. He says we need a can-do man at the Treasury
0:12:14 > 0:12:19and not a prophet of doom.I think that Philip Hammond is an
0:12:19 > 0:12:22exceptionally intelligent man, a very thoughtful man. It is not a bad
0:12:22 > 0:12:28thing to have a Chancellor who is serious minded and steady, rather
0:12:28 > 0:12:34than one who is a showman and uses the Exchequer to interfere in
0:12:34 > 0:12:39absolutely everything.I have a lot of confidence in the Chancellor.
0:12:39 > 0:12:43When you launched your budget for Brexit, you said the government has
0:12:43 > 0:12:49to deliver the £350 million for the NHS that was delivered during the
0:12:49 > 0:12:53referendum, even though you didn't think that promise should have been
0:12:53 > 0:12:57made. Is that something they now need to deliver wrong?It is. This
0:12:57 > 0:13:03only happens once we have left. Politicians have to recognise that
0:13:03 > 0:13:10voters don't look at the small print of electoral policies. If you put
0:13:10 > 0:13:16£350 million on the side of a bus and say it may be available for the
0:13:16 > 0:13:21NHS, it is reasonable for people to think that is a promise. Brexit was
0:13:21 > 0:13:27won by the Leave campaign, so it it is important that they deliver on
0:13:27 > 0:13:31that promise. Politicians must keep faith with voters and deliver on
0:13:31 > 0:13:36implied promises, as well as ones that are set out in detail.The
0:13:36 > 0:13:40Cabinet will move on to talk about the Brexit bill this week, and we
0:13:40 > 0:13:45understand they may need to come up with more money to satisfy EU
0:13:45 > 0:13:48demands. The more money spent on that is less money available for
0:13:48 > 0:13:55things like spending on the NHS. Are you worried about the size of the
0:13:55 > 0:14:01exit bill?You have your finger on the important point. The government
0:14:01 > 0:14:05will have to choose whether to give lots of money to the European Union,
0:14:05 > 0:14:10or whether to spend money on UK public services, and that will be
0:14:10 > 0:14:14part of the negotiation. On all these issues, it comes down to
0:14:14 > 0:14:20choice is the government makes. I would encourage the government to
0:14:20 > 0:14:23choose our own domestic public services rather than expensive
0:14:23 > 0:14:28schemes in continent or Europe.Why are you advocating that the
0:14:28 > 0:14:37government should spend up to £2.5 billion on a no deal scenario?
0:14:37 > 0:14:42It is important that we are ready to leave in the event of no deal. If we
0:14:42 > 0:14:48left with no deal we would on current figures still be saving the
0:14:48 > 0:14:54remains of 18 billion so we would be saving 15 and a half billion against
0:14:54 > 0:14:59paying for the financial framework. To show we're ready on day one would
0:14:59 > 0:15:07be money well spent and most would be needed any way. We need to have
0:15:07 > 0:15:11new customs arrangements in place even if it is not for a no deal
0:15:11 > 0:15:14situation.There are suggestions that the Government might back down
0:15:14 > 0:15:18on the idea of putting the time and date of leaving the EU on the face
0:15:18 > 0:15:22of the bill. Would you be Exxon certained if that was -- concerned
0:15:22 > 0:15:30if that was remove prd the bill?It is in Article 50, unless Article 50
0:15:30 > 0:15:40is extended by the Council of Europe we leave on 20th March 2019 and it
0:15:40 > 0:15:44makes accepts that should be the same in -- sense that should be in
0:15:44 > 0:15:48same in domestic law. But that is a secondary concern from my point of
0:15:48 > 0:15:53view. It is important that we leave on that date.Stay there if you
0:15:53 > 0:15:55would.
0:15:55 > 0:15:57We're joined in the studio by the former minister
0:15:57 > 0:15:58Stephen Hammond.
0:15:58 > 0:16:01He's no relation to the Chancellor, but he is a member
0:16:01 > 0:16:04of the Treasury Select Committee and he's one of the Tory MPs named
0:16:04 > 0:16:05as "Brexit mutineers" by the Daily Telegraph
0:16:05 > 0:16:07this week - lucky him.
0:16:07 > 0:16:13I'm assured you're no relation to the Chancellor. Let's just pick up
0:16:13 > 0:16:21on what Jacob Rees Mogg was saying. How important is it to you as a
0:16:21 > 0:16:26rebel that the Government does put the date on.I agree with Jacob it
0:16:26 > 0:16:32is in the Article 50 process, the key reason it is important is the
0:16:32 > 0:16:36negotiations look like they're going to be tricky and longer than we
0:16:36 > 0:16:43expected and it may well be that we are still negotiating up until March
0:16:43 > 0:16:472019. We could have a short couple of weeks period of extension. Why do
0:16:47 > 0:16:52harm to the economy by falling out on a precise time? If those
0:16:52 > 0:16:56negotiations need to be extended. They won't go on for more than a
0:16:56 > 0:17:00couple of weeks, because there will be elections in Europe in June 2019
0:17:00 > 0:17:05and there is no chance of a new commission or Parliament dealing
0:17:05 > 0:17:12with this. Giving it flexibility and with this flexibility the government
0:17:12 > 0:17:15said it wants flexibility in negotiations, why give all the
0:17:15 > 0:17:21advantage to the other side? Part of that was evidenced yesterday by
0:17:21 > 0:17:25somebody suggesting they will ask for the Margaret Thatcher rebate to
0:17:25 > 0:17:30be suspended. That is as a result of putting the date on the bill.You
0:17:30 > 0:17:33did not agree with the Brexit committee and think it is important
0:17:33 > 0:17:38that we set the date and time?I think it is perfectly reasonable to
0:17:38 > 0:17:43set the date and time and I think these negotiations fill the time
0:17:43 > 0:17:48available. The United States and Australia agreed a free trade deal
0:17:48 > 0:17:54between April 2003 and February 2004. These things don't need to be
0:17:54 > 0:17:58interm Knabl if both sides want to agree. I think the British
0:17:58 > 0:18:03electorate would be very concerned if nearly three years after the vote
0:18:03 > 0:18:06to leave, we still hadn't left. I think most people expected that we
0:18:06 > 0:18:10would have left by now. The negotiations realistically to get
0:18:10 > 0:18:14through the approval of the European Parliament and so on need to be
0:18:14 > 0:18:19completed by at the end of next year, going up to the last minute I
0:18:19 > 0:18:24don't think is real is tick.To move on to talk about a trade deal and
0:18:24 > 0:18:30getting that done, the EU need to agree to move on and we need to
0:18:30 > 0:18:33settle the divorce, cabinet are going to be talking about the amount
0:18:33 > 0:18:39that needs to be spent on that, Stephen what manned, are you happy
0:18:39 > 0:18:44for the Government to offer more?I hope that the Government will stick
0:18:44 > 0:18:49to the Florence speech in terms of ensuring that we fulfil our
0:18:49 > 0:18:54liabilities and obligations. I'm not clear exactly whether that is 20
0:18:54 > 0:18:57billion or 40 billion and I'm not sure the government is. If part of
0:18:57 > 0:19:01the divorce bill is then some settlement for getting the trade
0:19:01 > 0:19:07deal, we will need to examine that carefully.Jacob Rees Mogg, is this
0:19:07 > 0:19:13that might spark another war in the party if the cabinet suggest they're
0:19:13 > 0:19:19prepared to pay more?I think we need to go back to what you said,
0:19:19 > 0:19:29that the - the EU said they want us to settle the money first. The
0:19:29 > 0:19:32Government doesn't need to follow that. They need our money. If we
0:19:32 > 0:19:40don't pay any money for the final 21 months of the framework, the EU has
0:19:40 > 0:19:46about 20 billion pounds gap in its finances and it has no legal
0:19:46 > 0:19:50requirement to borrow. So it insolvents or the Germans and the
0:19:50 > 0:19:54others pay more. So our position on money is very strong and we
0:19:54 > 0:19:58shouldn't fall into the trap of thinking just because Mr Barnier
0:19:58 > 0:20:04said it it is as if he has received tablets of stone like Moses, he has
0:20:04 > 0:20:12not.There is a sense that the Government feels a mo generous offer
0:20:12 > 0:20:16would set a good tone, the kind of approach that Jacob Rees Mogg
0:20:16 > 0:20:22suggests would not make for smooth relations.It probably wouldn't. But
0:20:22 > 0:20:26we have to be clear what we are paying for and what we are getting.
0:20:26 > 0:20:32No one is suggesting we should hand over money without proper scrutiny.
0:20:32 > 0:20:37It may be appropriate to put money to facilitate international trade to
0:20:37 > 0:20:42secure jobs. We have to be careful about the analysis about what the
0:20:42 > 0:20:48scale and size of Brexit dividend is and the size of payments will be.
0:20:48 > 0:20:54You mustn't confuse gross and net and there is disagreement about some
0:20:54 > 0:21:00of the numbers.On that, Jacob Rees Mogg in his budget for Brexit
0:21:00 > 0:21:06suggests in five years time we would have a 135 billion Brexit bonus. Do
0:21:06 > 0:21:13you think it is real is tick.He is using some analysis that has some
0:21:13 > 0:21:19flaws. It is predicting a price drop in the United Kingdom of 10%. Tariff
0:21:19 > 0:21:26drops will only be 3 or 4%. It is predicting huge productivity gains,
0:21:26 > 0:21:31the likes of which we have not seen in 20 years. Thirdly, despite his
0:21:31 > 0:21:36view on modellers there is evidence that they weren't and if you go into
0:21:36 > 0:21:44the detail of the analysis, some of the data is 14 years out of date.
0:21:44 > 0:21:48Jacob Rees Mogg, you're being hopelessly optimistic?I don't think
0:21:48 > 0:21:53that right. I think the fall in prices comes because you make the
0:21:53 > 0:21:58economy more competitive and you take away tariffs which reduces the
0:21:58 > 0:22:04price of food by 20%. That is a big reduction. Bear in mind that the
0:22:04 > 0:22:08biggest tariffs hit food, clothing and foot wear that, harm the poorest
0:22:08 > 0:22:15in society the most. The gains from productivity come from is in
0:22:15 > 0:22:23additional tariffs. Leading to other saving and further investment I
0:22:23 > 0:22:27think the modelling done by the professor is as good as modelling
0:22:27 > 0:22:33can be. That doesn't mean it is infallible. The failure of gravity
0:22:33 > 0:22:40model is well known.Michael Gove was accused of auditioning for the
0:22:40 > 0:22:47job of Chancellor by using long words. Do you know any good long
0:22:47 > 0:22:50economic words?I don't think that we want to get into this type of
0:22:50 > 0:22:54business actually. I think all Conservatives and Steven and I very
0:22:54 > 0:23:00much agree on this, want to show as united a front as we can manage.
0:23:00 > 0:23:04There are differences on some aspects of policy, but in terms of
0:23:04 > 0:23:07individuals we want to stand together and support the best
0:23:07 > 0:23:13interests of the government.Thank you.
0:23:13 > 0:23:15Brexit Secretary David Davis was in Berlin this week trying
0:23:15 > 0:23:18to win the support of business leaders there for a comprehensive
0:23:18 > 0:23:19free trade deal with the EU.
0:23:19 > 0:23:22He warned them against putting 'politics above prosperity'
0:23:22 > 0:23:27and reportedly got a bit of a frosty reception.
0:23:27 > 0:23:30Well, the former Labour MP Gisela Stuart was one of the leaders
0:23:30 > 0:23:32of the Vote Leave referendum campaign.
0:23:32 > 0:23:34We travelled with Gisela to Germany to meet the business leaders
0:23:34 > 0:23:37she says will help secure a good trade deal for the UK.
0:23:37 > 0:23:40Here's her film.
0:23:47 > 0:23:50I was born and brought up in this part of Germany,
0:23:50 > 0:23:53and although I've lived in the UK for the past 40 years,
0:23:53 > 0:23:57and represented the constituency of Birmingham and Edgbaston for 20
0:23:57 > 0:24:02years, my family still live here, and I've kept many links.
0:24:05 > 0:24:08I was chair of Vote Leave, and together with only a handful
0:24:08 > 0:24:10of other Labour MPs, we campaigned to leave
0:24:10 > 0:24:13the European Union because we thought the country would be
0:24:13 > 0:24:15better off outside.
0:24:15 > 0:24:18It's hard to remember now, but back in the 1970s, when we joined
0:24:18 > 0:24:22the European Economic Community, people thought that by joining
0:24:22 > 0:24:26the club we would see the kind of economic miracle Germany
0:24:26 > 0:24:29experienced in the '70s back home.
0:24:29 > 0:24:31The "Deutsche Wirtschaftswunder" would come to Britain.
0:24:31 > 0:24:36But, of course, it didn't.
0:24:38 > 0:24:41Within a few short years of the devastation of World War II,
0:24:41 > 0:24:44Germany had emerged as the largest economy in Europe.
0:24:44 > 0:24:45Germany's extraordinary success is down to
0:24:45 > 0:24:50the pragmatism of its business.
0:24:50 > 0:24:55German Mittelstand is family dominated, forward-thinking,
0:24:55 > 0:25:01long-term thinking, reliability, are very important values.
0:25:01 > 0:25:04Changing moods on a political landscape and changing frameworks
0:25:04 > 0:25:06are toxic for our way of doing business, and we want
0:25:06 > 0:25:13that to go away.
0:25:13 > 0:25:18German business is not given to making big political statements
0:25:18 > 0:25:21out of step with government policy, but talk to those in decision-making
0:25:21 > 0:25:24positions, and it is clear that they want to secure a good deal
0:25:24 > 0:25:27with the United Kingdom.
0:25:27 > 0:25:30BMW employs almost 90,000 people here in Germany,
0:25:30 > 0:25:34and exports just under 1 million cars annually.
0:25:34 > 0:25:39The UK is a vital market.
0:25:39 > 0:25:43What we are really seeking right now is more clarity, more certainty,
0:25:43 > 0:25:47because in our cycle of investment, cycle of development,
0:25:47 > 0:25:52it's about a seven-year or so period that we look at,
0:25:52 > 0:25:56but we are now, of course, starting to think about what comes next,
0:25:56 > 0:25:59and what we need to see now is what is going to be
0:25:59 > 0:26:01the trading relationship, how are the logistics going to look,
0:26:01 > 0:26:03what is going to be the requirements for people
0:26:03 > 0:26:07moving across the continent?
0:26:07 > 0:26:09Because all of these things are important to us today.
0:26:09 > 0:26:13And, by the way, they will be just as important tomorrow.
0:26:13 > 0:26:15Berlin is well aware that if the European Commission
0:26:15 > 0:26:19is allowed to put up trade barriers against Britain, it will be
0:26:19 > 0:26:21German business, German consumers and German employees
0:26:21 > 0:26:25who will suffer.
0:26:25 > 0:26:27TRANSLATION:I think it's very important that we complete
0:26:27 > 0:26:29the first phase successfully.
0:26:29 > 0:26:33The first phase of the negotiations, which looks at the financial
0:26:33 > 0:26:35consequences of Great Britain leaving the EU.
0:26:35 > 0:26:39And then it's not a question of punishment payments.
0:26:39 > 0:26:41It's about when you are part of a multilayer, contractual
0:26:41 > 0:26:45obligation and you want to leave that, then of course it takes
0:26:45 > 0:26:48a whole lot of obligations which you have to deal with,
0:26:48 > 0:26:57so both sides are satisfied and can live with the consequences.
0:26:57 > 0:27:02It isn't everyone's interests for the UK to part on good terms.
0:27:02 > 0:27:05Of course there was going to be upset when the UK voted to leave,
0:27:05 > 0:27:08but creating uncertainty over the terms of UK's exit will simply
0:27:08 > 0:27:13have a disruptive effect on exports to UK markets.
0:27:13 > 0:27:17Far better to have a sensible, amicable negotiation that results
0:27:17 > 0:27:19both sides being able to trade together and work
0:27:19 > 0:27:26together post-Brexit.
0:27:26 > 0:27:28Markus Krall is managing director of Goetzpartners,
0:27:28 > 0:27:29and heads the Financial Institution Industry Group.
0:27:29 > 0:27:35Is it true to say that, if we negotiate Brexit well,
0:27:35 > 0:27:37then a good Brexit can actually strengthen the United Kingdom,
0:27:37 > 0:27:38the European Union and Germany?
0:27:38 > 0:27:40It's absolutely true.
0:27:40 > 0:27:43I think that this is about two things.
0:27:43 > 0:27:48One, about proving that free trade is possible
0:27:48 > 0:27:52between a European Union that is smaller and a former member country.
0:27:52 > 0:27:55If you don't prove that free trade is possible there,
0:27:55 > 0:27:59then the question becomes, what is Europe standing for?
0:27:59 > 0:28:04Number two is, I also believe the free trade,
0:28:04 > 0:28:08free market and democratic and less bureaucratic approach that Britain
0:28:08 > 0:28:10has chosen as the path into the future is a role
0:28:10 > 0:28:13model for Europe.
0:28:13 > 0:28:16The time has come both for the United Kingdom
0:28:16 > 0:28:19and for the EU to be more clear about what kind of
0:28:19 > 0:28:21deal we can achieve.
0:28:21 > 0:28:24Both sides need to be bold.
0:28:24 > 0:28:27As long as we remain open to free trade and sensible co-operation,
0:28:27 > 0:28:32we can arrive at something that will benefit both sides.
0:28:32 > 0:28:36But one thing's obvious - if we are an open and free trading
0:28:36 > 0:28:38economy, we've got one big cheerleader on our side,
0:28:38 > 0:28:44and that is German business.
0:28:44 > 0:28:46That was Gisela Stuart setting out her case
0:28:46 > 0:28:48and we'll be hearing from the opposite side
0:28:48 > 0:28:50of the argument in the coming weeks.
0:28:50 > 0:28:52Gisela Stuart joins us in the studio now, as does Alastair Campbell.
0:28:52 > 0:28:55He used to work for Tony Blair in Number 10, set up
0:28:55 > 0:28:57the New European Newspaper to campaign against Brexit,
0:28:57 > 0:29:00and is so pro-European that at this year's Labour conference
0:29:00 > 0:29:02he was heard playing Ode to Joy on the bagpipes.
0:29:02 > 0:29:07Welcome both of you.
0:29:07 > 0:29:11We will start with your point in the film, that you think the German
0:29:11 > 0:29:16business once the EU to offer the UK a generous deal because it is in
0:29:16 > 0:29:20their interests, yet the president of the German equivalent of the CBI
0:29:20 > 0:29:26said that defending the single market must be the priority for the
0:29:26 > 0:29:31EU, and another says that the cohesion of the remaining member
0:29:31 > 0:29:38states remains the highest priority. The president of the CBI just after
0:29:38 > 0:29:43the referendum said that it would be in nobody 's interest to introduce
0:29:43 > 0:29:50tariffs and trade barriers. On the UK side, I don't think there's a
0:29:50 > 0:29:54full understanding that economic interests are incredibly important,
0:29:54 > 0:30:01that they are trying to cover economic interests on the cohesion
0:30:01 > 0:30:05of the 27. I think different economic interests will raise the
0:30:05 > 0:30:13head of different countries. The German auto industry is as important
0:30:13 > 0:30:19as the financial sector is here. The banking crisis is far from over, but
0:30:19 > 0:30:25the big riffs which were going on is that the E U is losing its second
0:30:25 > 0:30:30biggest net contributor. Countries like Germany want a deal with the UK
0:30:30 > 0:30:36that is a free open market. There are other tensions in the EU that
0:30:36 > 0:30:40wants to become more protectionist, and that is a bad thing.Looking at
0:30:40 > 0:30:48the film there with the Jacob Rees-Mogg interview. No matter what
0:30:48 > 0:30:53side of leave you are, it is delusional and all driven by wishful
0:30:53 > 0:30:57thinking. You could find a businessman who says Brexit will be
0:30:57 > 0:31:02good for Germany. The vast bulk of British businesses think this is a
0:31:02 > 0:31:06disaster, as do the vast bulk of European businesses. One of the
0:31:06 > 0:31:11delusions on which they ran their campaign is the idea that they need
0:31:11 > 0:31:17us more than we need them. That is not true.Be you self about £80
0:31:17 > 0:31:22billion more in goods and services into the UK than we do to them, and
0:31:22 > 0:31:27Germany has one of the biggest deficits. It is in their interest.
0:31:27 > 0:31:32Of course it is, but it is a myth that they need us more than we need
0:31:32 > 0:31:39them. The damage that will be done to us, even with a good deal. Let's
0:31:39 > 0:31:44be frank, where these negotiations are, Theresa May is either going to
0:31:44 > 0:31:51end up with a bad deal and dumber or no Deal. A bad deal is bad, and a no
0:31:51 > 0:31:58deal is a catastrophe.You are setting up ideas that which were not
0:31:58 > 0:32:05there to begin with and knocking them down. Delusional.35 billion,
0:32:05 > 0:32:10the Brexit bonus.If we had a referendum, it was a democratic
0:32:10 > 0:32:13decision. I know you don't like it and that a lot of business would
0:32:13 > 0:32:19have preferred to stay with the status quo. We have had the
0:32:19 > 0:32:23referendum. Undermining political institutions is in no one's
0:32:23 > 0:32:30interests. It is functioning democracies which lead to economic
0:32:30 > 0:32:36stability.Theresa May fought an election Inc on a hard Brexit that
0:32:36 > 0:32:50was rejected.As we heard from BMW, there is uncertainty for business.
0:32:50 > 0:32:54There will be elections, European elections, in 2019. There will be a
0:32:54 > 0:32:59change of the Commission and the parliament. We have a narrow window
0:32:59 > 0:33:03to implement the mandate for the referendum which Parliament voted
0:33:03 > 0:33:10for. So rather than you undermining this country, why don't you work
0:33:10 > 0:33:15together to get the best deal? Because we totally disagree.You
0:33:15 > 0:33:21don't want a good deal?I'm in favour of a good deal, and I could
0:33:21 > 0:33:26give them some advice as to how they get a good deal. First, you have a
0:33:26 > 0:33:32cabinet that has an agreed strategy. 18 months in, they don't have that.
0:33:32 > 0:33:37I am not undermining a deal. I am continuing to pose questions about
0:33:37 > 0:33:44what they are trying to do and how they are trying to do it. This is
0:33:44 > 0:33:48democracy. Democracy is the ability for Parliament, which is not doing
0:33:48 > 0:33:52its job properly, and the public, to keep scrutinising, and if they want
0:33:52 > 0:33:59to change their mind, having the right to do that.You were trying to
0:33:59 > 0:34:03encourage the Taoiseach yesterday to play hardball with the UK.I am on
0:34:03 > 0:34:09the side of the UK, and I am worried that if we go down the path that we
0:34:09 > 0:34:13are being taken down, and Theresa May and Boris Johnson and the rest
0:34:13 > 0:34:18of them, this shambolic path, we are going to do fundamental, lasting
0:34:18 > 0:34:23damage to the country we love. I don't care about the Civil Aviation
0:34:23 > 0:34:29Authority. I care about Britain. -- I don't care about the European
0:34:29 > 0:34:37Union. If every lorry going into the UK today was stopped for just two
0:34:37 > 0:34:43minutes, we would create an instant 17 mile traffic jam. These people
0:34:43 > 0:34:53just don't care...I am not these people! Let us not conflate... You
0:34:53 > 0:34:57either decide that you are implementing a democratic decision
0:34:57 > 0:35:03of a referendum that was called and over 17 million voted.You will not
0:35:03 > 0:35:12stop me debating it. Just as Nigel Farage...Stop talking about Nigel
0:35:12 > 0:35:22Farrell Raj. Vote Leave was not Nigel Farage. There is no desire in
0:35:22 > 0:35:27Germany to punish the United Kingdom.They are behaving
0:35:27 > 0:35:32reasonably.There is a battle of protectionism and free market going
0:35:32 > 0:35:37on. If we implement this properly, give businesses the kind of
0:35:37 > 0:35:43incentives they want, we can get a good deal. So you want a bad deal?
0:35:43 > 0:35:51You are driven by wishful thinking. Gisela Stuart, you are saying that
0:35:51 > 0:35:54business will intervene to prevent things like tariffs being put in
0:35:54 > 0:35:59place? They are leaving it a bit late to put pressure on.You will
0:35:59 > 0:36:03find that business is laying out the kind of things they need to get
0:36:03 > 0:36:07those deals. I can find as much fault with the speed of the
0:36:07 > 0:36:11progress, but what I really do resent is that you are actually
0:36:11 > 0:36:20encouraging other countries to undermine...Know I am not! I spoke
0:36:20 > 0:36:24out in support of the Irish Taoiseach because I spent a lot of
0:36:24 > 0:36:27time with Tony Blair and his team on the Good Friday Agreement. The
0:36:27 > 0:36:31people who are driving this hard Brexit without thinking it through,
0:36:31 > 0:36:37still no answer on how you do Brexit in our island without a hard border.
0:36:37 > 0:36:45I think the Irish Taoiseach is right to call out the government on the
0:36:45 > 0:36:49incompetence and the fact they have not thought it through.You accept
0:36:49 > 0:36:55the result of the referendum and the fact that we will be leaving the EU?
0:36:55 > 0:36:59I accept the result of the referendum, but I do not accept that
0:36:59 > 0:37:04the country will definitely leave, because the country is entitled to
0:37:04 > 0:37:09change its mind. As the chaos and costs mount, the public is entitled
0:37:09 > 0:37:15to change its mind and will change its mind.There is no evidence at
0:37:15 > 0:37:23the moment.Come out with me!Allow me to finish the sentence. There is
0:37:23 > 0:37:30a changing of mind happening, a crystallisation. Unlike you, I have
0:37:30 > 0:37:35fought five elections and I have won five elections. I have probably
0:37:35 > 0:37:40spoken to more people like you.You may do, I'm just saying, come out on
0:37:40 > 0:37:46the road with me...40% of the population in the middle just want
0:37:46 > 0:37:52us to get on with it. What that film showed is that if you want to make
0:37:52 > 0:37:57it a self-fulfilling prophecy that it's a disaster, which I don't. I
0:37:57 > 0:38:03want to implement a deal that is good for British jobs. The rest of
0:38:03 > 0:38:11the world is changing in terms of technology. Currently, Germany
0:38:11 > 0:38:16hasn't even got a government, and nobody is laughing about that.And
0:38:16 > 0:38:21they are stable without a government!Let's leave it there.
0:38:21 > 0:38:23It's coming up to 11.40, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
0:38:23 > 0:38:26Coming up on the programme, we'll be looking at the latest
0:38:26 > 0:38:29opinion polls and we'll bring you the results of our moodbox
0:38:29 > 0:38:31asking whether Phllip Hammond or John McDonnell should be running
0:38:31 > 0:38:32the economy.
0:38:32 > 0:38:35First though, its time for the Sunday Politics where you are.
0:38:42 > 0:38:46Hello and welcome to the London part of the show, I'm Norman Smith.
0:38:46 > 0:38:50Joining me for the duration - Siobhain McDonagh, Labour MP
0:38:50 > 0:38:53for Mitcham and Morden and Nickie Aiken, the Conservative
0:38:53 > 0:38:59Leader of Westminster Council.
0:38:59 > 0:39:01I want to start first with, what else, but Brexit.
0:39:01 > 0:39:03This week Lord Mandelson a leading 'Remainer' gave a speech
0:39:03 > 0:39:07at the Centre for London on London's role in the UK, and what Brexit
0:39:07 > 0:39:09might mean for the capital.
0:39:09 > 0:39:12BBC London's Political Editor Tim Donovan caught up with him
0:39:12 > 0:39:16there and began by asking the former EU Commissioner why people like him
0:39:16 > 0:39:21say London's global status is under threat from Brexit.
0:39:21 > 0:39:25The reason why we are a global city, a global hub, is not simply
0:39:25 > 0:39:30because this is a magnificent city, with, you know, a wonderful history
0:39:30 > 0:39:34and amenities and museums and infrastructure and transport
0:39:34 > 0:39:35and places to live.
0:39:35 > 0:39:38It's not just because of that.
0:39:38 > 0:39:40People come to London so that they can, through London,
0:39:40 > 0:39:44access the whole of the European 500-million-strong single market.
0:39:44 > 0:39:51Once we remove ourselves from that, we become less relevant to those
0:39:51 > 0:39:56international businesses and investors who will find other
0:39:56 > 0:39:59places to locate within Europe in that single market.
0:39:59 > 0:40:01But isn't that exaggerated?
0:40:01 > 0:40:04Such is the strength of London and its financial sector,
0:40:04 > 0:40:06our former EU partners are going to be desperate
0:40:06 > 0:40:07for a deal with us.
0:40:07 > 0:40:09We're going to get the equivalence.
0:40:09 > 0:40:12We're going to be able to continue to export our services.
0:40:12 > 0:40:14Interested in making a deal with us, yes.
0:40:14 > 0:40:17Desperate, no.
0:40:17 > 0:40:20They have other places to go, other fish to fry.
0:40:20 > 0:40:25So what we've got to understand is that it is we who have
0:40:25 > 0:40:28unilaterally torn up this contract between ourselves and
0:40:28 > 0:40:32the European Union.
0:40:32 > 0:40:35We are now going to them and saying, look, we've decided
0:40:35 > 0:40:37to cancel our membership, leave your club, but would you mind
0:40:37 > 0:40:41very much if we dipped in and out as we wish and go round the back,
0:40:41 > 0:40:43enter through the door, and use your facilities
0:40:43 > 0:40:47without paying a membership subscription and without
0:40:47 > 0:40:49accepting your rules?
0:40:49 > 0:40:53They're not going to accept that.
0:40:53 > 0:40:55Will you accept that your gloom is focused on the short-term,
0:40:55 > 0:40:58but actually there are a lot of people out there who say,
0:40:58 > 0:41:00long-term, the City of London, this city, will be OK,
0:41:00 > 0:41:03because it will be negotiate and it will find new markets?
0:41:03 > 0:41:06Can I just say two things to you?
0:41:06 > 0:41:10The City of London, important as it is, important as financial
0:41:10 > 0:41:12services and financial markets are, is not the whole of London.
0:41:12 > 0:41:15It's very important to London but it's not the whole of London.
0:41:15 > 0:41:18There are many other ways in which people
0:41:18 > 0:41:21make their living in London, a lot of which are in businesses
0:41:21 > 0:41:24which are European-facing and depend on open and free trade
0:41:24 > 0:41:27with the rest of Europe.
0:41:27 > 0:41:29Secondly, nobody is saying that the City of London
0:41:29 > 0:41:33is going to collapse.
0:41:33 > 0:41:38Of course it isn't going to collapse.
0:41:38 > 0:41:41What is going to happen, though, is it is going to become
0:41:41 > 0:41:43smaller in its reach, the amount of business that comes
0:41:43 > 0:41:45here, and if we get the Brexit final agreement wrong,
0:41:45 > 0:41:49what we will see next year is the trickle of people leaving
0:41:49 > 0:41:59London will in subsequent years become a flood.
0:41:59 > 0:42:04Lord Mandelson warning of the Brexiters flood. Let me put it to
0:42:04 > 0:42:11you that this is Project Fear mark to?I do not recognise the picture
0:42:11 > 0:42:15that Lord Mandelson is painting. London is booming. I've never seen
0:42:15 > 0:42:21so many tourists. We've got to stop this fear all the time. We have got
0:42:21 > 0:42:28to look at this. We are going to leave the European Union and we have
0:42:28 > 0:42:33to get on with it.Anecdotally, there seem to be loads of stories of
0:42:33 > 0:42:38French schools where lots of children are going back.
0:42:38 > 0:42:41Anecdotally, there doesn't seem to be movement by EU nationals back to
0:42:41 > 0:42:46their home countries.I've been clear that we have to look after EU
0:42:46 > 0:42:55nationals. The... Last week I announced a package of services that
0:42:55 > 0:42:58will help EU nationals understand their rights and allow them to stay.
0:42:58 > 0:43:03I see them as Westminster citizens and not EU nationals, and I want
0:43:03 > 0:43:07them to stay.This week we saw the ONS coming out with statistics
0:43:07 > 0:43:13saying that overall the number of EU nationals in the UK had reached an
0:43:13 > 0:43:19all-time high, so maybe this talk of a Brexit Exodus, it is all just a
0:43:19 > 0:43:25myth.In the last fortnight I have had three different local businesses
0:43:25 > 0:43:32telling me that they cannot recruit, they cannot recruit trained joiners
0:43:32 > 0:43:40or skilled staff who need good hand to eye coordination, or cleaners to
0:43:40 > 0:43:44clean hotels even when they are full. You do not want to cause
0:43:44 > 0:43:48unnecessary fear, that it would be an irresponsible person who didn't
0:43:48 > 0:43:53say that there could be huge problems for London, and when London
0:43:53 > 0:43:58is unsuccessful, the rest of the country suffers.But this may be a
0:43:58 > 0:44:02short time thing, and London is a major global city that, down the
0:44:02 > 0:44:07line, will thrive what ever.But in the short term we have to live.
0:44:07 > 0:44:14People who don't earn much need a home. People need hospitals, social
0:44:14 > 0:44:22services, transport. Life doesn't stand still while London re-regulate
0:44:22 > 0:44:25itself.Let's move on.
0:44:25 > 0:44:27Dulwich Hamlet Football Club is one of the capital's best
0:44:27 > 0:44:28loved smaller teams.
0:44:28 > 0:44:30Semi-professional and non-League, they often manage to get more
0:44:30 > 0:44:32supporters through the gate than professional sides.
0:44:32 > 0:44:35But the future of the club is now in doubt, after a row
0:44:35 > 0:44:37between the local council and the owners of the stadium
0:44:37 > 0:44:39who want to redevelop the site.
0:44:39 > 0:44:41Is this another example of London's local, organic culture
0:44:41 > 0:44:42being crushed by redevelopment?
0:44:42 > 0:44:49Andrew Cryan has more.
0:44:49 > 0:44:52A wet Tuesday night in Dulwich - welcome to one of the best-supported
0:44:52 > 0:44:56non-league teams in the world.
0:44:56 > 0:44:59It is a hipster club isn't it, No 1.
0:44:59 > 0:45:03But it's a hipster club that has a visible left of centre agenda.
0:45:03 > 0:45:07It is a very unusual and interesting place
0:45:07 > 0:45:12in the encroaching modernisation of London.
0:45:12 > 0:45:14This is a Tuesday night fixture, we have got 1,200
0:45:14 > 0:45:19people to a non-league ground.
0:45:19 > 0:45:22The future of Dulwich Hamlet might now
0:45:22 > 0:45:25be in doubt, because of a row between the people who own this site
0:45:25 > 0:45:28and the local council.
0:45:28 > 0:45:32The stadium, Champion Hill, isn't owned by
0:45:32 > 0:45:35Dulwich Hamlet Football Club, but by Meadow Residential - an
0:45:35 > 0:45:38American-backed property developer, who want to build homes and a new
0:45:38 > 0:45:40stadium on the land.
0:45:40 > 0:45:43In meantime, they have helped fund the running of
0:45:43 > 0:45:46a club to the tune of £170,000 a year, but Meadow have clashed with
0:45:46 > 0:45:48the local authority.
0:45:48 > 0:45:51Southwark say they are not happy with the plans
0:45:51 > 0:45:52for a number of reasons, including a
0:45:52 > 0:45:55lack of affordable housing.
0:45:55 > 0:45:57Meadow, well, they have said that the whole
0:45:57 > 0:46:00site is no longer financially viable and have pulled all their
0:46:00 > 0:46:03funding for Dulwich Hamlet Football Club.
0:46:03 > 0:46:06As a result, the club don't know how they're going to pay the
0:46:06 > 0:46:10players or perhaps even continue as a club.
0:46:10 > 0:46:12It's quite serious when you set your budget, or your budget was
0:46:12 > 0:46:15set for you, you have signed players, they're under contract,
0:46:15 > 0:46:21they have got to be paid in accordance with that contract.
0:46:21 > 0:46:26Put your money into the box to help Dulwich pay wages.
0:46:26 > 0:46:29If Meadow want to go out of their way to make the club
0:46:29 > 0:46:31die, that's on their head.
0:46:31 > 0:46:34They came here with a lot of promises what
0:46:34 > 0:46:37they were going to do, through for no fault of the club's,
0:46:37 > 0:46:40but their own, they haven't met those promises.
0:46:40 > 0:46:43Criticism of the developer has come from the very top of
0:46:43 > 0:46:44London politics.
0:46:44 > 0:46:47It is the glue if you like that binds that community together
0:46:47 > 0:46:50and I think the developer needs to recognise what local residents want,
0:46:50 > 0:46:54but what is is possible and it is possible for the developer to deal
0:46:54 > 0:46:58with the council that means we have a thriving
0:46:58 > 0:47:00non-league football club, we have a genuinely affordable
0:47:00 > 0:47:02homes, but also a development that brings profits -
0:47:02 > 0:47:05not unreasonably - to the developer.
0:47:05 > 0:47:08Southwark Council have also come in for criticism.
0:47:08 > 0:47:11The plan was going to work like this - in
0:47:11 > 0:47:13the corner you can see where the stadium currently is.
0:47:13 > 0:47:15That was going to be flattened and housing built on
0:47:15 > 0:47:16their instead.
0:47:16 > 0:47:19The AstroTurf here was going to be transformed into a
0:47:19 > 0:47:21state-of-the-art stadium.
0:47:21 > 0:47:24The new home of Dulwich Hamlet.
0:47:24 > 0:47:28But is in land is actually owned by Southwark, who have leased it
0:47:28 > 0:47:31to the club for years, but just a couple of weeks ago
0:47:31 > 0:47:33the council announced they were taking the land back.
0:47:33 > 0:47:35No land, means no new stadium.
0:47:35 > 0:47:37The whole deal fell apart.
0:47:37 > 0:47:41The problem here is a problem that's common not just to
0:47:41 > 0:47:43football, but to everybody in London, or anybody
0:47:43 > 0:47:45in cities all over the
0:47:45 > 0:47:48world, the issue here is simply, like most problems in the world,
0:47:48 > 0:47:50to do with land prices.
0:47:50 > 0:47:52You have a football club that is a notably
0:47:52 > 0:47:57community football club sitting on a piece of land which is worth
0:47:57 > 0:48:00far more than what the football club brings into it as a business.
0:48:00 > 0:48:02But, for now, the future of Dulwich Hamlet
0:48:02 > 0:48:05is not in the hands of club, but the council
0:48:05 > 0:48:09and the property developer.
0:48:09 > 0:48:11I'm joined by Peter John, Leader of Southwark Council
0:48:11 > 0:48:14and by Andrew McDaniel, a partner at the developers
0:48:14 > 0:48:20Meadow Residential.
0:48:20 > 0:48:25Surely it hasn't been impossible to reach an agreement' you want houses
0:48:25 > 0:48:31built, you want to build houses, why can't you agree. What is your bottom
0:48:31 > 0:48:35line that stops you saying to the developers, get on wit. What is the
0:48:35 > 0:48:41problem?I have been a councillor in this area for 15 years now and
0:48:41 > 0:48:45throughout that time green dale, the bit of land, has been important and
0:48:45 > 0:48:50under the control of football club and has not been maintained by them.
0:48:50 > 0:48:55We have been clear that green space should come back for local people to
0:48:55 > 0:48:59council and you build whatever you want on your site, but you have to
0:48:59 > 0:49:05present, preserve and protect the club.Andrew, what is your bottom
0:49:05 > 0:49:10line, what you have to have to go ahead with building the homes.We
0:49:10 > 0:49:16want to build enough hopes for Londoners.What is stopping you?
0:49:16 > 0:49:22Finding a suitable development plan with the council.In the men time --
0:49:22 > 0:49:27meantime isn't it fair to say you're using the club to put a bit of
0:49:27 > 0:49:31pressure and squeeze on council, saying, look if you do not give the
0:49:31 > 0:49:36football club gets it?It is unfair. The history is we came into the
0:49:36 > 0:49:41development three and a half years ago, the club was already in
0:49:41 > 0:49:44financial distress and we have been their benefactor, trying to find a
0:49:44 > 0:49:50solution that saves the club and provides housing for Londoners.
0:49:50 > 0:49:54Unfortunately, we haven't been able to find a proposal that we both
0:49:54 > 0:49:59agree on.It is extraordinary for a developer to pick up the tab for a
0:49:59 > 0:50:02football club, they are already going out of their way to support
0:50:02 > 0:50:08the community, why can't you cut them a bit more slack?The
0:50:08 > 0:50:13difficulty, the cutting the slack means invading open land that is the
0:50:13 > 0:50:18valuable green space. I think the problem here was that the developer
0:50:18 > 0:50:22bought this piece of land ant assumption they would be able to
0:50:22 > 0:50:26build on open land, without checking us with. When they came to see us
0:50:26 > 0:50:32three and a half years ago, I said, no, you cannot. We have been clear.
0:50:32 > 0:50:40Where you are now, is lose, lose. You can have homes, not as many
0:50:40 > 0:50:45homes.Who will build it.If not Meadow somebody else. We will build
0:50:45 > 0:50:52council housing there. Happily. Somebody wells can do that.We own
0:50:52 > 0:50:56the land and we won't be selling the land. We came to deliver housing.
0:50:56 > 0:51:01How are you going to get another developer in, they own the land.If
0:51:01 > 0:51:06they want to sit on the land and not develop it, and not deliver the
0:51:06 > 0:51:10housing that, is up to them. I don't think it does the communities or the
0:51:10 > 0:51:16club favours.Can I make a point, because I didn't come to fight, our
0:51:16 > 0:51:21proposal did not involve invading open land, we were replacing a pitch
0:51:21 > 0:51:28with a pitch. The word invading is a tough word to swallow. Matters of
0:51:28 > 0:51:31density are probably judged by independent party, I agree with the
0:51:31 > 0:51:36mayor, who has already written to us supporting the levels of density we
0:51:36 > 0:51:41need. I would point out that Southwark's design review panel
0:51:41 > 0:51:46agrees with our levels of density. Is part of issue that Southwark has
0:51:46 > 0:51:52been wrapped over the knuckles for not building affordable housing and
0:51:52 > 0:51:58now you want to show you're serious? No, we get affordable housing out of
0:51:58 > 0:52:01most developments and we require 35% and that has not been present in the
0:52:01 > 0:52:06proposals. The scheme wanted to go on to open land and there were
0:52:06 > 0:52:11unacceptable elements. And we want to see the club...You have
0:52:11 > 0:52:14experience, you're the mediator, step in, this happened with
0:52:14 > 0:52:26Wimbledon?Yes Wimbledon football club in the 80s, Sam Hamman owned
0:52:26 > 0:52:41Wimbledon on Plough Lane and evicted the club and they ended up QPR and
0:52:41 > 0:52:47went to Milton Keynes and we lost supporters.What was the effect on
0:52:47 > 0:52:54the community?It was devastating, my dad is passed now, but he was a
0:52:54 > 0:52:58season ticket holder and itself put him off football, he thought those
0:52:58 > 0:53:01involved were not about the game, they were about money and
0:53:01 > 0:53:04development and that simply supporters were a front for all
0:53:04 > 0:53:09that.On that point, do you have any sense of your corporate
0:53:09 > 0:53:13responsibility in terms of local community, here you have a thriving
0:53:13 > 0:53:20very distinctive club, which you are in effect going to pull the plug on?
0:53:20 > 0:53:23Absolutely, that is why we held the club together for three and a half
0:53:23 > 0:53:29years. It is not my desire to see it close. We do not own it. And we have
0:53:29 > 0:53:34tried to do and will continue to do as much as we can to keep it alive.
0:53:34 > 0:53:41The problem is this, there is no land in London.Yes but I have
0:53:41 > 0:53:45sympathy with Peter, we have to protect our communities, there is
0:53:45 > 0:53:49nothing worse in London than having you know communities that don't live
0:53:49 > 0:53:53side by side. That is what is important about Westminster and we
0:53:53 > 0:53:58have got to have mixed neighbourhoods, rich and poor and
0:53:58 > 0:54:00everything in between living together. If it is down to one club,
0:54:00 > 0:54:07we have to save the club.I couldn't agree any more.I'm with Peter on
0:54:07 > 0:54:13this one.I too respect the community, I'm a Londoner.We may
0:54:13 > 0:54:16not get agreement on the development, can you offer any
0:54:16 > 0:54:22assurances to the club that it will be kept going one way or the other?
0:54:22 > 0:54:31As a council we are behind the club and want to see it prosper.Could
0:54:31 > 0:54:36you fund it.We will to what is necessary.I have no problem with
0:54:36 > 0:54:40funding the club, the only thing I need is a viable business plan so I
0:54:40 > 0:54:44can find the funds to provide that support.This some way to go I fear.
0:54:44 > 0:54:49Thank you very much.
0:54:49 > 0:54:51On Wednesday the Chancellor Philip Hammond will be
0:54:51 > 0:54:53announcing his budget - which the Mayor of London
0:54:53 > 0:54:55has called the "most important for a generation".
0:54:55 > 0:54:58Everything from housing to social care, and policing
0:54:58 > 0:54:59to children's services, are competing for
0:54:59 > 0:55:01the Treasury's money - and all the while an uncertain
0:55:01 > 0:55:02Brexit looms.
0:55:02 > 0:55:08Here's Tanjil Rasheed on what the Budget might mean for London.
0:55:08 > 0:55:11The Chancellor is in a difficult position when it comes
0:55:11 > 0:55:14to this week's budget.
0:55:14 > 0:55:16He favours caution and living within our means, but pressure
0:55:16 > 0:55:21is mounting on him to increase spending on public services.
0:55:21 > 0:55:24Those run by local authorities are feeling the pinch especially.
0:55:24 > 0:55:28London councils have announced that they will have experienced
0:55:28 > 0:55:31a 63% funding reduction by the end of this decade.
0:55:31 > 0:55:34That's hitting services like adult social care hard.
0:55:34 > 0:55:37Boroughs in the capital are spending £300 million less on that
0:55:37 > 0:55:39than they were in 2010, even as the ageing
0:55:39 > 0:55:43population swells.
0:55:43 > 0:55:46They say, by 2020, local authorities in the capital will have a funding
0:55:46 > 0:55:50shortfall of £1.5 billion a year.
0:55:50 > 0:55:52So is there a way of getting council finances on
0:55:52 > 0:55:54a more sustainable footing?
0:55:54 > 0:55:57That's what many are hoping will be announced on Wednesday.
0:55:57 > 0:56:01Meanwhile, the Mayor of London has safety on his mind.
0:56:01 > 0:56:03We need to make sure the police get the funding settlement
0:56:03 > 0:56:06they need to keep us safe.
0:56:06 > 0:56:08We are a city that's a target to terrorists,
0:56:08 > 0:56:12but also we've seen knife crime, gun crime, acid attacks on the rise.
0:56:12 > 0:56:14The government has got to reverse previous announcements to cut monies
0:56:14 > 0:56:17and invest in our police.
0:56:17 > 0:56:20And then, of course, there's housing.
0:56:20 > 0:56:25We're calling on the Chancellor to try and solve one of the biggest
0:56:25 > 0:56:27problems facing London, which is the housing crisis -
0:56:27 > 0:56:30the fact that we need to build lots more homes.
0:56:30 > 0:56:32We think councils could do a lot more.
0:56:32 > 0:56:33They have borrowing limits which are capped.
0:56:33 > 0:56:36We believe those caps should be raised, because London businesses
0:56:36 > 0:56:38now, it's one of their biggest problems - retaining
0:56:38 > 0:56:41staff, recruiting staff - and key to doing that is about
0:56:41 > 0:56:46having the right houses, the right homes for their staff.
0:56:46 > 0:56:48So it would seem, then, that the Chancellor has
0:56:48 > 0:56:53London's fate in his hands.
0:56:53 > 0:56:59So I mean we have had plenty of hints from the Prime Minister about
0:56:59 > 0:57:05housing being the big announcement. But you get the sense we have been
0:57:05 > 0:57:09here so many times, I have heard successive Prime Ministers and
0:57:09 > 0:57:13Chancellors talking about tackling housing and we never really do it.
0:57:13 > 0:57:21And it has been no tinkering around the edges, we are in a crisis, we
0:57:21 > 0:57:27have 124,000 children in temporary accommodation, families taken away
0:57:27 > 0:57:31and housed in other parts of country. There is a cost and we
0:57:31 > 0:57:36either build the houses or pay the costs.How quickly can you do that,
0:57:36 > 0:57:40it take time, getting planning permission, I is a slow process.I
0:57:40 > 0:57:45think it will take time to solve it, could we get at it? Yes. If the
0:57:45 > 0:57:50government required all the money from the right to buy sales go into
0:57:50 > 0:57:56building properties and councils and the mayor and all public bodies, the
0:57:56 > 0:58:01NHS were required to look at their sites for housing, we could turn
0:58:01 > 0:58:06this around and can I talk about prefabs?This is a particularly
0:58:06 > 0:58:10London problem, because obviously London is a dense city and prices
0:58:10 > 0:58:14are through the roof, other parts of UK have problems, but we have real
0:58:14 > 0:58:21problems in London?We have an acute crisis in London and there are
0:58:21 > 0:58:25things we can do, no tinkering, it is a crisis and needs major
0:58:25 > 0:58:29measures. One of the big things... Does there need to be a special deal
0:58:29 > 0:58:34for London?That would be helpful, but what the local authorities in
0:58:34 > 0:58:39London need is the borrow cap lifted on our housing revenue account. If
0:58:39 > 0:58:45we could do that, we would have 96 million available, that is 200
0:58:45 > 0:58:51homes. I could do it like that.Is the other option to get on the Green
0:58:51 > 0:58:56Belt, there isn't the space, so bite the bullet, we have got to build
0:58:56 > 0:59:03somewhere and it is easier to build there.There is enough brownfield
0:59:03 > 0:59:07sites vase scant and we have to look at NHS properties and local
0:59:07 > 0:59:12authority properties first. There will be probably be some Green Belt
0:59:12 > 0:59:18issue, but there is enough brownfield sites to lack at first.
0:59:18 > 0:59:23Everyone is angry at the baby boomers, they are in big houses and
0:59:23 > 0:59:29are going nowhere.I think you're right, they bought paid for houses
0:59:29 > 0:59:33when times were tough. So that is not necessary think solution. One
0:59:33 > 0:59:40which to get people to think about moving would be pi building more
0:59:40 > 0:59:43places and building smaller units that are homes for people who are
0:59:43 > 0:59:48retired. We behind Europe or America in looking at what older people
0:59:48 > 0:59:51actually want. Because the only way they're going to leave is if they
0:59:51 > 0:59:56can get something that is more attractive than they're living in.
0:59:56 > 1:00:02We have more people in Westminster moving in who are retired, they're
1:00:02 > 1:00:08staying in big homes in the home counties and moving.Damian Green
1:00:08 > 1:00:19talked about the rebirth of council housing, really?
1:00:19 > 1:00:23Westminster has to major regeneration projects in India and
1:00:23 > 1:00:30others Central London, which is going to be affordable. We are going
1:00:30 > 1:00:35to deliver about 1800 new homes in the centre of Westminster ourselves,
1:00:35 > 1:00:40and ensure that property developers are going to deliver affordable
1:00:40 > 1:00:48homes as well.I would ban the word affordable in housing, because it
1:00:48 > 1:00:54does not mean affordable. Affordable in government speak means 80% of
1:00:54 > 1:01:03market value. If you need to spend £2000 on rent in London, 80% of that
1:01:03 > 1:01:07is not very affordable. We need to build homes that people can go to
1:01:07 > 1:01:12work and pay their rent, and it's going to be difficult.That also
1:01:12 > 1:01:17means the ability for people to buy their own homes, because that is the
1:01:17 > 1:01:22great British way, and there has to be new ways for young people, under
1:01:22 > 1:01:2740, to buy a house in Central London.Thank you.
1:01:27 > 1:01:28That's all we have time for.
1:01:28 > 1:01:33My thanks to Siobhan and to Nickie and with that it's back to Sarah.
1:01:40 > 1:01:43Philip Hammond will deliver his Budget on Wednesday -
1:01:43 > 1:01:46he's moved it to the Autumn if you remember - and he'll be
1:01:46 > 1:01:48hoping it can help re-define the Government in the eyes
1:01:48 > 1:01:49of the public.
1:01:49 > 1:01:53But when it comes to the economy, do people trust
1:01:53 > 1:01:54the Conservatives, or Labour?
1:01:54 > 1:01:59Here's Ellie Price with the moodbox.
1:01:59 > 1:02:06MUSIC: The Road to Nowhere by Talking Heads.
1:02:06 > 1:02:10All eyes will be on the Chancellor this week as we find out
1:02:10 > 1:02:12what he has been cooking up in his Budget.
1:02:12 > 1:02:15So we have pulled off the A1 near Peterborough to ask people here
1:02:15 > 1:02:18who they trust with the economy - is it the Chancellor,
1:02:18 > 1:02:25Philip Hammond, or is it Labour's John McDonnell?
1:02:25 > 1:02:28No 7.
1:02:28 > 1:02:33Which one's Tory?
1:02:40 > 1:02:41I voted Conservative for the last two
1:02:41 > 1:02:46elections, don't feel very confident now, so I'm going to swap.
1:02:46 > 1:02:48If I said to you which of these characters
1:02:48 > 1:02:50would you trust with the economy, what would you say?
1:02:50 > 1:02:52The one who's currently running it, because they
1:02:52 > 1:02:54seem to be bringing the deficit down.
1:02:54 > 1:02:55Labour.
1:02:55 > 1:02:56Why?
1:02:56 > 1:02:59Because I'm an NHS worker.
1:02:59 > 1:03:02For me, it's just about spending, public spending.
1:03:02 > 1:03:07Labour always overspend.
1:03:07 > 1:03:13John McDonnell, I think capitalism as we know it is tanked
1:03:13 > 1:03:18and I think we need a radical re-think.
1:03:18 > 1:03:20Broken his egg, who do you trust more on the economy?
1:03:20 > 1:03:21No one.
1:03:21 > 1:03:24Why?
1:03:24 > 1:03:29Because they never come up trumps with anything that they
1:03:29 > 1:03:30reckon they're going to do.
1:03:30 > 1:03:33If I had to make you choose one of them?
1:03:33 > 1:03:35The man that's there, Hammond.
1:03:35 > 1:03:36I wouldn't trust Philip Hammond with a
1:03:36 > 1:03:42bag of marbles or a plastic ball!
1:03:42 > 1:03:43Hello, Bob.
1:03:43 > 1:03:44Oh, hello.
1:03:44 > 1:03:46Who do you trust more on the economy?
1:03:46 > 1:03:47Oh, the Conservatives.
1:03:47 > 1:03:49Do you? Why's that?
1:03:49 > 1:03:51I just think they're better for the small businessman.
1:03:51 > 1:03:53We need a Maggie or a Winston Churchill,
1:03:53 > 1:03:56somebody in there with balls to say, right,
1:03:56 > 1:03:58that's the direction we are
1:03:58 > 1:04:00going in, that's what we are going to do.
1:04:00 > 1:04:02I've got balls!
1:04:02 > 1:04:03What are you doing?
1:04:03 > 1:04:11Putting balls in holes by the look of it!
1:04:11 > 1:04:13I suppose the lesser of the two evils is anything but Tory,
1:04:13 > 1:04:16but I say that without a great deal of conviction.
1:04:16 > 1:04:19Having grown up in the '70s with all the rubbish on the
1:04:19 > 1:04:20streets, the strikes, the unions.
1:04:20 > 1:04:24Re-nationalisation and they're going to spend a lot of money
1:04:24 > 1:04:30and increase taxes and it will pull the country down.
1:04:30 > 1:04:33I've seen an awful loft of all-day breakfasts today, but it
1:04:33 > 1:04:36is clearing up time here at the diner and time
1:04:36 > 1:04:38to reveal the Moodbox.
1:04:38 > 1:04:40Take it away, Tim.
1:04:40 > 1:04:43As you can say it was a close-run thing, but
1:04:43 > 1:04:45like any fiscally responsible Chancellor, I've done my maths and
1:04:45 > 1:04:52counted and Philip Hammond got six more votes than John McDonnell.
1:04:52 > 1:04:56Oh, chip, thank you very much!
1:04:56 > 1:04:58That was Ellie and the entirely unscientific Moodbox,
1:04:58 > 1:05:00at the Stibbington diner near Peterborough.
1:05:00 > 1:05:03But for a slightly more scientific understanding of how the public view
1:05:03 > 1:05:06the parties on this and other issues, let's have a look
1:05:06 > 1:05:08at some recent polling.
1:05:08 > 1:05:10Here's where the Conservatives and Labour stood on the economy back
1:05:10 > 1:05:13when the Prime Minister called the snap election in April,
1:05:13 > 1:05:16when the Conservatives had a big lead, as they did in many
1:05:16 > 1:05:18other areas.
1:05:18 > 1:05:22The most recent poll by the same company reckoned Labour had narrowed
1:05:22 > 1:05:24the gap significantly, as they have in other areas,
1:05:24 > 1:05:29although they're still 10 points behind the Tories on this issue.
1:05:29 > 1:05:32And there was another survey much discussed at Westminster this week,
1:05:32 > 1:05:38showing that while the gap between Theresa May
1:05:38 > 1:05:40and Jeremy Corbyn has narrowed drastically since that pre-election
1:05:40 > 1:05:42period, Mrs May is, despite her many problems,
1:05:42 > 1:05:44still pretty much level-pegging in polling terms or
1:05:44 > 1:05:45even slightly ahead.
1:05:45 > 1:05:47And when it comes to how people intend to vote
1:05:47 > 1:05:50while the Tories are behind, there's no sign of a
1:05:50 > 1:05:52big Labour lead yet.
1:05:52 > 1:05:54Tony Blair thinks that, given the current "mess"
1:05:54 > 1:05:58inside the Government, Jeremy Corbyn's party should be
1:05:58 > 1:06:0110 or 15 points ahead.
1:06:01 > 1:06:04Well, many in Labour will find it easy to dismiss both Tony Blair
1:06:04 > 1:06:07and the opinion polls, as they both called the last election entirely
1:06:07 > 1:06:13wrong, so what if anything do these polls tell us?
1:06:13 > 1:06:21Let's turn to our expert panel. Labour are now eight points on the
1:06:21 > 1:06:26economy, according to a poll. Why is there a gap between Labour and the
1:06:26 > 1:06:33Tories?There seems to be a deep-seated reservation in the minds
1:06:33 > 1:06:36of many voters. They look at Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell and
1:06:36 > 1:06:41imagine them in charge of the country, the finances, national
1:06:41 > 1:06:44security, and think... It is unfashionable to point out in many
1:06:44 > 1:06:49circles that Labour did not win the last election, and it didn't win it
1:06:49 > 1:06:55for that kind of reason. Jeremy Corbyn is very good at attracting
1:06:55 > 1:07:01and inspiring young people and people who had not voted before. We
1:07:01 > 1:07:07underestimated his capacity to do that. But he wasn't great at turning
1:07:07 > 1:07:12Tories to Labour, or sealing off those final reservations. The
1:07:12 > 1:07:16government have had a shambolic few weeks. We are tripping over
1:07:16 > 1:07:18resigning a cabinet ministers. They
1:07:18 > 1:07:20weeks. We are tripping over are fighting like ferrets. A lot of
1:07:20 > 1:07:23people are having a really tough time and looking at the government
1:07:23 > 1:07:28to help them, and are unimpressed with what they see. But there seems
1:07:28 > 1:07:35to be a final fence that Corbyn does not seem to be able to get over.
1:07:35 > 1:07:41Isn't Tony Blair right, that Labour should be 15 or 20 points ahead?I
1:07:41 > 1:07:45think he's completely wrong, and is revealing he is out of date. I think
1:07:45 > 1:07:48Labour are in a really good position. If you look at what they
1:07:48 > 1:07:54have achieved in the last year, going into Christmas 2016, Corbyn
1:07:54 > 1:08:00had just managed to avoid, had to re-fight Labour leadership contest.
1:08:00 > 1:08:07They were 20 points behind. Theresa May was at the top of her game.
1:08:07 > 1:08:12Through the general election and beyond it, they have continued to
1:08:12 > 1:08:16build their movement. They are very effective on social media. I think
1:08:16 > 1:08:22they are in a strong position, and they need about 60 seats to win the
1:08:22 > 1:08:27next general election. They will probably start with 25 of those. The
1:08:27 > 1:08:31fact that they are closing the gap on the economy suggests that a lot
1:08:31 > 1:08:35of voters are now giving them a chance or a hearing, which they
1:08:35 > 1:08:40certainly were not getting a year ago. I think they have done very
1:08:40 > 1:08:45well.Can they be confident with a slim lead against the government?I
1:08:45 > 1:08:50am slightly more with Tony Blair than with Iain. This goes back to
1:08:50 > 1:08:57that very general election result. A huge turnout for Labour for Jeremy
1:08:57 > 1:09:05Corbyn. If you asked that same 40% of people today, do you want Jeremy
1:09:05 > 1:09:08Corbyn to be Prime Minister? Where you really voting for Jeremy Corbyn
1:09:08 > 1:09:14to lead the British governmentanswer is no, because Theresa May still,
1:09:14 > 1:09:19despite the fact she is presiding over a shambolic cabinet, she has
1:09:19 > 1:09:25the most support for Prime Minister. The last general election may have
1:09:25 > 1:09:31just been a giant by-election, because everyone was so short that
1:09:31 > 1:09:35Theresa May would get in.The Chancellor Philip Hammond gave
1:09:35 > 1:09:42Labour a bit of a gift, when he said, there were not any unemployed
1:09:42 > 1:09:49people in Britain. A slip of the tongue. Was that damaging?You have
1:09:49 > 1:09:53to look at the context he was saying it in, which will not be the context
1:09:53 > 1:10:01of the Facebook meme you will get shortly. He was asked about future
1:10:01 > 1:10:11unemployment, and he was saying that when technological advances came,
1:10:11 > 1:10:17unemployment didn't materialise. They would not be able to use that
1:10:17 > 1:10:21against him so easily if it didn't have something that people think
1:10:21 > 1:10:25about the Conservative government, which is that they are out of touch,
1:10:25 > 1:10:29they have no idea about some people, that they refuse to see what they
1:10:29 > 1:10:34have done. People have that idea about the Conservatives, so to drop
1:10:34 > 1:10:40a bit of a clanger in that regard... The budget is on Wednesday, and also
1:10:40 > 1:10:44this week, the Brexit committee will be meeting. What will they be
1:10:44 > 1:10:49talking about and why does it matter?What Stephen Hammond said to
1:10:49 > 1:10:52you a few moments ago was fascinating. Tomorrow is going to be
1:10:52 > 1:10:58the big meeting. It is the negotiations committee. Nine or so
1:10:58 > 1:11:02ministers have recently been included in that, like Michael Gove.
1:11:02 > 1:11:06They are going to be talking about the money, precisely how much they
1:11:06 > 1:11:12offer in two weeks' time to meet this deadline in the December
1:11:12 > 1:11:15council for phase two. Michael Gove and Boris Johnson want to add in
1:11:15 > 1:11:21conditions. They want to say, we will give you this as long as we get
1:11:21 > 1:11:25that. What was fascinating with Stephen Hammond just now was that he
1:11:25 > 1:11:28revealed that it wasn't just the Brexiteers in Cabinet who want a
1:11:28 > 1:11:38more precise definition of what we are going for, it is the remainers
1:11:38 > 1:11:43as well.In the heart of the government, David Davis is trying to
1:11:43 > 1:11:51keep the bill as low as possible, possibly around 30%. The divorce
1:11:51 > 1:11:58Bill and future liabilities. Some in the civil service have suggested
1:11:58 > 1:12:04that it has to be 40 or above. What it reveals to me is really, it's
1:12:04 > 1:12:08another function of Britain not really having a proper Prime
1:12:08 > 1:12:13Minister. In normal circumstances, of course the Cabinet is divided. A
1:12:13 > 1:12:17strong leader would say, right, this is what is happening. This is where
1:12:17 > 1:12:24we are going. We will call it 35 or 40 billion. We will save to the
1:12:24 > 1:12:28European Union, there is the check, but it will not have a signature on
1:12:28 > 1:12:41it until we are satisfied with the next
1:12:46 > 1:12:49stage. The government is hampered by the lack of a strong personality who
1:12:49 > 1:12:51could do that, make a political play with other European leaders that
1:12:51 > 1:12:54might break the deadlock.Presumably that is why the full Cabinet have
1:12:54 > 1:12:56not discussed what the future Brexit deal will be.That is the
1:12:56 > 1:12:59astonishing thing. There has been no sort of vision of what Britain is
1:12:59 > 1:13:03going to look like after Brexit. We have got down in what the
1:13:03 > 1:13:07negotiation position for tomorrow will be. What does it look like in
1:13:07 > 1:13:11terms of immigration, trade with the rest of the world, what life will
1:13:11 > 1:13:16look like for ordinarily... Ordinary people?There are visions for this,
1:13:16 > 1:13:22but they will not agree on one. Is there such a thing as a Tory Cabinet
1:13:22 > 1:13:25Minister who could have one single vision without them all ripping each
1:13:25 > 1:13:30other's heads off? Probably not. Thank you.
1:13:30 > 1:13:32That's all for today.
1:13:32 > 1:13:34Join me again next Sunday at 11.00 here on BBC One.
1:13:34 > 1:13:41Until then, bye bye.