0:00:38 > 0:00:42Morning everyone, I'm Sarah Smith and and this
0:00:42 > 0:00:43is the Sunday Politics...
0:00:43 > 0:00:46Bringing you up to speed on all the political comings and goings
0:00:46 > 0:00:47in Westminster and beyond.
0:00:47 > 0:00:51Coming up in today's programme:
0:00:51 > 0:00:53Having knocked Cabinet heads together Theresa May
0:00:53 > 0:00:55prepares - finally - to lay out her vision for Brexit.
0:00:55 > 0:00:58But can she keep her whole party on side?
0:00:58 > 0:01:00We'll be speaking to a former Tory leader.
0:01:00 > 0:01:04Waiting in the wings is this man.
0:01:04 > 0:01:07But can Jeremy Corbyn unite the opposing forces in his own party
0:01:07 > 0:01:10and convince the electorate he'd do a better job of Brexit?
0:01:10 > 0:01:13The forthcoming local elections in England ought to give us
0:01:13 > 0:01:16a clue about the fortunes of the two main parties.
0:01:16 > 0:01:19We'll be previewing these crucial council contests.
0:01:19 > 0:01:21In London, the Government blames the Mayor, the Mayor
0:01:21 > 0:01:24blames the Government...
0:01:24 > 0:01:26As funding and police numbers fall, can the police
0:01:26 > 0:01:29really do more for less?
0:01:35 > 0:01:40All that coming up in the programme.
0:01:40 > 0:01:43And as usual, we've got three Westminster insiders who will take
0:01:43 > 0:01:45us behind the headlines and tell us what's really going on.
0:01:45 > 0:01:48Today I'm joined by Iain Dale, Kate McCann and Steve Richards.
0:01:48 > 0:01:51Next month, Theresa May will begin formal negotiations
0:01:51 > 0:01:53with her European counterparts on what the future EU-UK
0:01:53 > 0:01:57relationship should look like.
0:01:57 > 0:02:02This week, she will lay out her vision of life after Brexit
0:02:02 > 0:02:05and she'll declare that our "best days really do lie ahead of us".
0:02:05 > 0:02:07EU leaders beg to differ though, and have already taken
0:02:07 > 0:02:08some pre-emptive swipes.
0:02:08 > 0:02:11But, while the talk is likely to get tough in Brussels,
0:02:11 > 0:02:14the key battles could be played out closer to home.
0:02:15 > 0:02:19It's known as the Brexit war committee, but the smiles suggested
0:02:19 > 0:02:21an outbreak of peace among the Cabinet's big beasts.
0:02:21 > 0:02:24For now, at least.
0:02:25 > 0:02:28They'd arrived at Chequers, the Prime Minister's country
0:02:28 > 0:02:31retreat, on Thursday afternoon, to try and agree a common position
0:02:31 > 0:02:34for the next round of Brexit talks.
0:02:35 > 0:02:40Eight hours later, ministers were apparently still smiling,
0:02:40 > 0:02:43having agreed on something called ambitious managed divergences
0:02:43 > 0:02:45and future trade with the EU.
0:02:45 > 0:02:47One of those present said the Prime Minister
0:02:47 > 0:02:50had played a blinder, but will it be enough to hold
0:02:50 > 0:02:52the whole party together?
0:02:52 > 0:02:55Earlier in the week, a letter from the pro-Brexit
0:02:55 > 0:02:59European reform group found its way into the newspapers,
0:02:59 > 0:03:02politely reminding the Prime Minister that when we leave,
0:03:02 > 0:03:06nothing but full regulatory autonomy will be good enough.
0:03:06 > 0:03:09But it's Remain-minded Tories who could throw a real
0:03:09 > 0:03:10spanner in the works.
0:03:10 > 0:03:18Conservative MP Anna Soubry announced on Thursday she had...
0:03:21 > 0:03:24"Tabled a new amendment to the trade bill to force the government to form
0:03:24 > 0:03:26a customs union with the EU".
0:03:26 > 0:03:2827 other EU countries also need to be won over.
0:03:28 > 0:03:30Brexit Secretary David Davis was in Vienna on Tuesday,
0:03:30 > 0:03:32colourfully describing what Brexit will not look like.
0:03:32 > 0:03:37They fear that Brexit will lead to an Anglo-Saxon race
0:03:37 > 0:03:40to the bottom, with Britain plunged into a Mad Max style world borrowed
0:03:40 > 0:03:44from dystopian fiction.
0:03:44 > 0:03:49These fears about a race to the bottom are based on nothing.
0:03:49 > 0:03:51But the EU are not convinced.
0:03:51 > 0:03:55European Council President Donald Tusk arguing that the UK
0:03:55 > 0:03:56was still trying to cherry pick its future
0:03:56 > 0:03:58relationship with the EU.
0:03:58 > 0:04:04I'm afraid that the UK position today is based on pure illusion.
0:04:04 > 0:04:06Until now, Jeremy Corbyn has played his Brexit
0:04:06 > 0:04:10cards close to his chest.
0:04:10 > 0:04:15He may begin to reveal his hand in a major speech tomorrow and this
0:04:15 > 0:04:18week he unusually raised Brexit at Prime Minister's Questions.
0:04:18 > 0:04:21This government isn't on the road to Brexit, Mr Speaker,
0:04:21 > 0:04:23it's on the road to nowhere.
0:04:23 > 0:04:27Can I congratulate the right honourable gentleman,
0:04:27 > 0:04:29because normally he stands up every week and asks me
0:04:29 > 0:04:33to sign a blank cheque.
0:04:33 > 0:04:35And I know he likes cheques, but, really, that is terribly...
0:04:35 > 0:04:40That was a reference to reports that the Labour leader had held
0:04:40 > 0:04:43meetings with the former Czechoslovakian spy in the 1980s.
0:04:43 > 0:04:47Mr Corbyn hit back at those reports with a social media video,
0:04:47 > 0:04:49in which he said rather cryptically, "Change is coming to
0:04:49 > 0:04:51the newspaper industry".
0:04:51 > 0:04:56Publishing these ridiculous smears that have been refuted by Czech
0:04:56 > 0:04:58officials shows just how worried the media bosses are at the prospect
0:04:58 > 0:05:00of a Labour government.
0:05:00 > 0:05:04They are right to be.
0:05:04 > 0:05:07Tory MP Ben Bradley had to apologise to Mr Corbyn over a tweet
0:05:07 > 0:05:10about the allegations, saying...
0:05:19 > 0:05:23But it wasn't all Brexit and brush passes.
0:05:23 > 0:05:26The Prime Minister began the week announcing a review
0:05:26 > 0:05:27into higher education.
0:05:27 > 0:05:29We now have one of the most expensive systems of university
0:05:29 > 0:05:31tuition in the world.
0:05:31 > 0:05:33Theresa May wants to demonstrate her government isn't
0:05:33 > 0:05:38simply defined by Brexit, but navigating the complications
0:05:38 > 0:05:41of leaving the EU is an all consuming task.
0:05:41 > 0:05:43If she can avoid it consuming her career, that
0:05:43 > 0:05:46could be her greatest achievement.
0:05:47 > 0:05:50Steve, Kate and Iain were watching that with me.
0:05:53 > 0:05:57Let's chew over what has been happening this week. People saying
0:05:57 > 0:06:01that meeting at Chequers, the Prime Minister played a blinder and got
0:06:01 > 0:06:04the Cabinet to agree. Outside the Cabinet, it looks like she is
0:06:04 > 0:06:11assaulted on all sides by pro-Brexit, pro had Brexit Tory MPs,
0:06:11 > 0:06:15the EU, it's not as easy as all that?It is never going to be easy
0:06:15 > 0:06:18for a Prime Minister who hasn't got a Parliamentary majority. She is
0:06:18 > 0:06:22very resilient. Whenever she's knocked down, she bounces back
0:06:22 > 0:06:26again. I think she has had quite a reasonable week this week, starting
0:06:26 > 0:06:29off on the front foot and tuition fees and ending the week with the
0:06:29 > 0:06:32meeting at Chequers. I think a lot of commentators thought it was going
0:06:32 > 0:06:37to be a disaster, that they would agree on the way board. The proof in
0:06:37 > 0:06:41the pudding will be on what she says in the speech on Friday. We have
0:06:41 > 0:06:44Jeremy Corbyn mandates and effectively she has to up with
0:06:44 > 0:06:47probably quite a lot more detail than she has done in the past. I
0:06:47 > 0:06:51think they have the basis for that now.Kate, we've talked a lot on
0:06:51 > 0:06:54this programme about the arguments within the Cabinet but now it looks
0:06:54 > 0:07:00like the focus is now on the wider Conservative Party. You have
0:07:00 > 0:07:03probably remain MPs like Anna Soubry saying they want to stay in the
0:07:03 > 0:07:07customs union, a letter from pro except MPs like Jacob Rees-Mogg
0:07:07 > 0:07:11saying they want full regulatory divergence. Which group is likely to
0:07:11 > 0:07:16win the day?I think what is most interesting this week will be Jeremy
0:07:16 > 0:07:20Corbyn's speech on Monday. That comes before Theresa May's speech on
0:07:20 > 0:07:25Friday. That will help tip those two sites, as it were, and we will see
0:07:25 > 0:07:29what will happen with the customs union. Jeremy Corbyn is likely to
0:07:29 > 0:07:33say he would like to stay in a customs union that is likely to make
0:07:33 > 0:07:37the Tory MPs on the Tories I'd like Anna Soubry and Nicky Morgan, who
0:07:37 > 0:07:42want to back and push for a customs union feel like they have more
0:07:42 > 0:07:49control over that. Whether it is likely not promote we are yet to
0:07:49 > 0:07:52see. If Labour is shifting its customs union position that much,
0:07:52 > 0:07:55that gives Tory MPs a lot more strength in the House of Commons
0:07:55 > 0:07:58because the government has already pushed back a vote on the customs
0:07:58 > 0:08:04union because they are worried about what is going happen.Those pro
0:08:04 > 0:08:07remain Tories on the Labour Party believe they have the Parliamentary
0:08:07 > 0:08:10arithmetic to force a defeat on the government over the customs union,
0:08:10 > 0:08:17are they right about that?Certainly in theory they are right. There are
0:08:17 > 0:08:22enough Conservative MPs and if the opposition vote for this, the
0:08:22 > 0:08:26government faces a defeat with profound consequences. We will not
0:08:26 > 0:08:29know probably until the moment when the vote takes place. It will be a
0:08:29 > 0:08:34moment of one of these great Parliamentary dramas, where there
0:08:34 > 0:08:38will be huge pressure on Tory MPs not to go along with this and say,
0:08:38 > 0:08:42you are in alliance with Jeremy Corbyn and so on. We won't know
0:08:42 > 0:08:46until the vote but in theory they have the numbers. It would be a game
0:08:46 > 0:08:49changer if this amendment was carried.This is fascinating. It
0:08:49 > 0:08:52means the power has gone to the house of parliament and has left
0:08:52 > 0:08:56number ten and the Cabinet, Hilary Benn described this as a backbencher
0:08:56 > 0:08:59's parliament because the government doesn't have a majority. Is that
0:08:59 > 0:09:05where the authority lies now?In some ideas. I'm not sure if I agree
0:09:05 > 0:09:08about the Parliamentary arithmetic because some will die with the
0:09:08 > 0:09:12Conservatives, and we will hear from one later, Frank Field. There are a
0:09:12 > 0:09:16group of them. I wonder about the numbers on the Tory benches, there
0:09:16 > 0:09:22is a hard-core group of about ten or a dozen that you think might well
0:09:22 > 0:09:25support Anna Soubry's amendment but I don't really see it going much
0:09:25 > 0:09:29beyond that. But you are right, it will be on a bit of a knife edge. If
0:09:29 > 0:09:34it came to the government were defeated on this, then we are in
0:09:34 > 0:09:36uncharted waters, because the government could actually make it a
0:09:36 > 0:09:40vote of confidence. It would be very unusual to do one on an amendment to
0:09:40 > 0:09:43a bill but it is possible, or they could call a vote of confidence that
0:09:43 > 0:09:50would put Anna Soubry and all the others in
0:09:50 > 0:09:53others in a bit a tricky position. If they did vote against the
0:09:53 > 0:09:55government on a vote of confidence, they would have to be deselected.We
0:09:55 > 0:09:57will talk about that throughout the programme.
0:09:57 > 0:09:59Listening to all that is the former Conservative leader,
0:09:59 > 0:10:01and leading Brexit campaigner, Iain Duncan Smith.
0:10:01 > 0:10:05Welcome to the programme. Do you accept there is a significant chance
0:10:05 > 0:10:07the government could be defeated on a customs union in the House of
0:10:07 > 0:10:12Commons question when you don't have a majority there is a chance to be
0:10:12 > 0:10:15defeated on anything.I love the way the media looks at this cost would
0:10:15 > 0:10:19take a pace back, it's a government that won the election and didn't get
0:10:19 > 0:10:21an overall majority so it means almost anything anyone is upset
0:10:21 > 0:10:25about could cause a problem for the government, fact of life. Brexit is
0:10:25 > 0:10:29just one, it's a very big issue but one of those, there has been other
0:10:29 > 0:10:32issues and there will be on the issue is following through.It
0:10:32 > 0:10:37matters to you whether we are in a customs union with the EU?Lots of
0:10:37 > 0:10:42things deeply matter to me, beyond Brexit. But yes. I think the key
0:10:42 > 0:10:45thing is not what I believe but the Prime Minister has been pretty clear
0:10:45 > 0:10:49about this from the word go, way before the election, during the
0:10:49 > 0:10:52election importantly and even subsequently she has made it very
0:10:52 > 0:10:55clear we are taking back control, leaving the customs union, single
0:10:55 > 0:11:00market, and at the same time making sure we get outside of the remit of
0:11:00 > 0:11:11the court of justice. She has been clear about this.
0:11:38 > 0:11:40Let's pick a bit of that. In her Lancaster House speech she said she
0:11:40 > 0:11:43wanted us to have a customs agreement with the EU, not a customs
0:11:43 > 0:11:45union but customs agreement. This controversial amendment Anna Soubry
0:11:45 > 0:11:47another Superdome says they want an agreement that enables the UK to be
0:11:47 > 0:11:50able to participate in a customs union with the EU, is there space
0:11:50 > 0:11:53for that?It depends what the detail is. The government set it out quite
0:11:53 > 0:11:55rightly on having a proper free trade arrang ement. You can describe
0:11:55 > 0:11:57a free-trade arrangement in all different ways but a free-trade
0:11:57 > 0:12:00arrangement is about us having a clear ability to sell-out goods into
0:12:00 > 0:12:02the European Union them to sell us without artificial trade barriers
0:12:02 > 0:12:04that will require arrangements that out customs arrangements. The big
0:12:04 > 0:12:07them to sell us without artificial trade barriers and that will require
0:12:07 > 0:12:08arrangements that out customs arrangements. The behind having a
0:12:08 > 0:12:10customs union and being outside a free-trade arrangement is we are 90%
0:12:10 > 0:12:13of the graces in the global economy in the next two years, we will be
0:12:13 > 0:12:17free to do that. If we are in a customs union, you to make trade
0:12:17 > 0:12:18arrangements with America, Australia, India, where ever we want
0:12:18 > 0:12:21to, where 90% of the growth is in the global economy in the next two
0:12:21 > 0:12:24years, we will be free to do that. If we are in a customs union, you
0:12:24 > 0:12:27agree do that and therefore we would have to what the European Union to
0:12:27 > 0:12:29what the European certainly be outvoted endlessly. This is about
0:12:29 > 0:12:32where does the power light and we would almost certainly be outvoted
0:12:32 > 0:12:35endlessly. This is about where does the with the rest of the world in a
0:12:35 > 0:12:36moment but exactly what you describe, the free-trade arrangement
0:12:36 > 0:12:40with no tariffs with the EUand the freedom to make those deals, that is
0:12:40 > 0:12:42what the EU called cherry picking? What they really called cherry
0:12:42 > 0:12:44picking is this arrangement we are talking about now, a customs union.
0:12:44 > 0:12:46They have been pretty clear about this. They said it is not
0:12:46 > 0:12:52acceptable. Let's look at it from the European Union to make those
0:12:52 > 0:12:55agreements?I want to get into the detail on free-trade deals with the
0:12:55 > 0:12:57rest of the world in a moment but exactly what you describe, the
0:12:57 > 0:13:00free-trade arrangement with no tariffs with the EU and the freedom
0:13:00 > 0:13:02to make those deals, that is what the EU called cherry picking?What
0:13:02 > 0:13:04they really called cherry picking is this arrangement we are talking
0:13:04 > 0:13:07about now, a customs union. They have been pretty clear about this.
0:13:07 > 0:13:09They said it is not acceptable. Let's look at it from the European
0:13:09 > 0:13:12Union's standpoint. We constantly look at what the UK once. You use is
0:13:12 > 0:13:14certainly not going to agree going into a customs union where we will
0:13:14 > 0:13:18then have over any future agreement, so we will outvote all 27 because we
0:13:18 > 0:13:20that would depend on the agreement. ...That would depend on the
0:13:20 > 0:13:22agreement. The EU wants would have enormous power against them, they an
0:13:22 > 0:13:25agreement, we would have enormous power against them, they won't agree
0:13:25 > 0:13:27because it is not in their interests to do I think what is more in
0:13:27 > 0:13:30arrangement. There are lots of countries that are already breaking
0:13:30 > 0:13:31ranks with the commission about this, Italy, Sweden, Holland said we
0:13:31 > 0:13:34have to have a free-trade arrangement.They are not on that
0:13:34 > 0:13:36yet, they are still on the implementation phase. When it comes
0:13:36 > 0:13:39to free trade, I am very, very certain that they will want to make
0:13:39 > 0:13:41an arrangement with us because it is in their interests, arguably more
0:13:41 > 0:13:44than us. , they want a free-trade arrangement. There are lots of
0:13:44 > 0:13:46countries that are already breaking ranks with the commission about
0:13:46 > 0:13:48this, Italy, Sweden, Holland said we have to have a free-trade
0:13:48 > 0:13:50arrangement. They are not on that yet, they are still on the
0:13:50 > 0:13:52implementation phase. When it comes to free-trade, I am very, very
0:13:52 > 0:13:55certain that they will want to make an arrangement with us because it is
0:13:55 > 0:13:58in their interests, arguably more than us let's move on to trade with
0:13:58 > 0:14:00the rest of the world. Why do so absolutely convinced that the
0:14:00 > 0:14:03ability to do with Australia, China, the ones the EU has at the,
0:14:03 > 0:14:05different from the ones the EU has at increasing our trade with these
0:14:05 > 0:14:08countries from inside the EU? Their biggestare so terribly important?
0:14:08 > 0:14:10Why can't we be increasing our trade with these countries from inside the
0:14:10 > 0:14:14EU?Their biggest free-trade we are naturally, the UK, more than any
0:14:14 > 0:14:17other country in the European country, arguably more than most in
0:14:17 > 0:14:21the world, a free-trade for free trade the WTO has a ready said they
0:14:21 > 0:14:24love the idea of us coming back as a full voting member because we will
0:14:24 > 0:14:26argue for free trade. By, global free trade and services, which stop
0:14:26 > 0:14:30because the European Union has not wanted to push the site at all.Do
0:14:30 > 0:14:33so much more trade with China than us from within the EU?That is to do
0:14:33 > 0:14:37with what Germany says they want to do and go and do it Germany do so
0:14:37 > 0:14:40much more trade with China than us from within the EU? That is to do
0:14:40 > 0:14:43with what Germany says they want to do and go and do it.Being a member
0:14:43 > 0:14:47of the EU has being a member of the EU be outside the that so why do we
0:14:47 > 0:14:53have to be outside you get rid of artificial tarrythat is not
0:14:53 > 0:14:56parallel argument. By getting trade arrangements you get rid of
0:14:56 > 0:14:58artificial and delays at the borders that allows you to increase your
0:14:58 > 0:15:02trade. We want from where we are. But at the same time, incoming stuff
0:15:02 > 0:15:06is just as important. The people who will benefit most from a free-trade
0:15:06 > 0:15:10arrangement of the poorest in society because the cost of food,
0:15:10 > 0:15:15footwear and clothing will almost certainly our trade from where we
0:15:15 > 0:15:26are. But at the same time, incoming stuff is just as important.
0:15:26 > 0:15:30You might as much larger and more important market. The skill is not
0:15:30 > 0:15:36that important. The key thing is, do you value a marketplace, is it worth
0:15:36 > 0:15:39doing business with? Financial services is an important are great
0:15:39 > 0:15:43-- an important area you want to strike agreements with. The UK's
0:15:43 > 0:15:46dominant in financial services and you cannot get a free-trade
0:15:46 > 0:15:50agreement within the single market at the moment. You cannot sell
0:15:50 > 0:15:58insurance in Germany without having a company in Germany to sell it.
0:15:58 > 0:16:01They have never wanted to do financial service is free trade. We
0:16:01 > 0:16:04will be in a much better state globally. You have seen the increase
0:16:04 > 0:16:07in New Zealand's trade when they went for free-trade and got rid of
0:16:07 > 0:16:10their trade barriers.A dramatic increase in no global position. The
0:16:10 > 0:16:18tragedy led to this and they reckon a free-trade deal with America we
0:16:18 > 0:16:25did 0.02% to the UK's GDP.I have a bone to pick with the BBC. There has
0:16:25 > 0:16:30been a brilliant economic report are independent, which has been given
0:16:30 > 0:16:33very little coverage which is taken apart the model that the Treasury
0:16:33 > 0:16:37and the government put together. For example, dealing with this. The
0:16:37 > 0:16:41reason why you arrive at this, it depends on what you assume to be the
0:16:41 > 0:16:45actual savings on the border. The government has only assumed a 4%
0:16:45 > 0:16:50saving on getting rid of tariff barriers. Almost every economist in
0:16:50 > 0:16:55the world agrees it is nearer to 20% saving.This study has been covered
0:16:55 > 0:17:01on the BBC it was on the Daily Politics on Friday. It assumes zero
0:17:01 > 0:17:06tariffs on absolutely everything. It is an extremely optimistic forecast.
0:17:06 > 0:17:10It assumes a 10% tariff at the end of the day, it assumes tariffs
0:17:10 > 0:17:15falling to an average of 10%, not zero. If they went to zero it would
0:17:15 > 0:17:21improve it even more. I have read this report backwards.One of the
0:17:21 > 0:17:24officers says that while there will be benefits from free-trade deals,
0:17:24 > 0:17:28over time it would be likely we would mostly eliminate manufacturing
0:17:28 > 0:17:33in UK by the things that would be worth it and it should not us.That
0:17:33 > 0:17:37was one of the original suggestions, much earlier.But he was one of the
0:17:37 > 0:17:41authors of this report.He was but he has accepted this is not going to
0:17:41 > 0:17:45be the case within this report. They're assuming that the border
0:17:45 > 0:17:48changes will mean less of a tariff on the borders at average. That is
0:17:48 > 0:17:52what happens in most other free-trade arrangements. The point
0:17:52 > 0:17:57I'm making is it has a massive benefit to the UK for us to do this.
0:17:57 > 0:18:00That is why going for a free-trade agreement with the European Union is
0:18:00 > 0:18:08the right way to go. We forget what Europe itself once.Labour is in a
0:18:08 > 0:18:12complete mess about this. We will talk to this about -- we will talk
0:18:12 > 0:18:15to them about that.They were in favour of leaving the customs union
0:18:15 > 0:18:19and the single market and Barry Gardner said it was making a vassal
0:18:19 > 0:18:23state if you stayed in the customs union. We will ask Labour themselves
0:18:23 > 0:18:27about that. Theresa May has made it clear where out of the single market
0:18:27 > 0:18:31and Customs union and I say to my colleagues who want to change some
0:18:31 > 0:18:36of this, just be very careful on this one, because being invited into
0:18:36 > 0:18:39a Labour Party tactical game which will end up in real damage the
0:18:39 > 0:18:43United Kingdom.Iain Duncan Smith, thank you very much for talking to
0:18:43 > 0:18:45us.
0:18:45 > 0:18:47So much for the Conservatives, but what about Labour?
0:18:47 > 0:18:49In 24 hours' time, Jeremy Corbyn will give
0:18:49 > 0:18:50a keynote speech on Brexit.
0:18:50 > 0:18:53All the signs are that he will back the UK staying permanently
0:18:53 > 0:18:54in a customs union with the EU.
0:18:54 > 0:18:58But over 80 senior Labour figures have today urged Mr Corbyn to go
0:18:58 > 0:19:00further and support staying in the single market as well.
0:19:00 > 0:19:03But how would that go down with the millions of Labour
0:19:03 > 0:19:04voters who backed Brexit?
0:19:04 > 0:19:06Here's what the Shadow Brexit Secretary, Keir Starmer,
0:19:06 > 0:19:07said this morning.
0:19:07 > 0:19:10Well, we have long championed being in a customs union with the EU
0:19:10 > 0:19:14and the benefits of that.
0:19:14 > 0:19:16Obviously, it is the only way, realistically, to get
0:19:16 > 0:19:18tariff free access.
0:19:18 > 0:19:23It is really important for our manufacturing base
0:19:23 > 0:19:26and nobody can answer the question how you keep your commitment to no
0:19:26 > 0:19:28hard border in Northern Ireland without a customs union.
0:19:28 > 0:19:30We have always said that the benefits of the single
0:19:30 > 0:19:33market must be there in the final agreement and that is a really
0:19:33 > 0:19:35important commitment because in the end, however
0:19:35 > 0:19:38you arrive at that, in whatever the instrument or agreement it is,
0:19:38 > 0:19:40the benefits have got to be there.
0:19:40 > 0:19:41Labour is agreed on that end state.
0:19:41 > 0:19:44There is obviously an argument about how we get there.
0:19:44 > 0:19:47To discuss this I'm joined by two Labour MPs who fall on opposing
0:19:47 > 0:19:48sides of the Brexit argument.
0:19:48 > 0:19:50Frank Field campaigned to leave the EU and Stella Creasy
0:19:50 > 0:19:53is a supporter of the pro-European group Open Britain.
0:19:53 > 0:19:58Thank you both for coming on the programme. Stella Creasy, you have
0:19:58 > 0:20:02signed this letter to Jeremy Corbyn to be asking not only to stay in the
0:20:02 > 0:20:07customs union but also the single market. If you're in both of them, I
0:20:07 > 0:20:12really delivering on the referendum Brexit result?There are lots of
0:20:12 > 0:20:15different combinations that still see is leaving the European Union
0:20:15 > 0:20:19but do what Labour people across this country, and that is why there
0:20:19 > 0:20:22is support across the country and the party for this letter, which is
0:20:22 > 0:20:28to protect the jobs and incomes. We know that Brexit, any of the models,
0:20:28 > 0:20:32I am horrified to your Iain Duncan Smith dismissing the idea that
0:20:32 > 0:20:36manufacturing may be at stake or the numbers don't matter. It is a
0:20:36 > 0:20:41massive hit on our economy. It is a massive hit took peace in Northern
0:20:41 > 0:20:43Ireland if we leave the customs union. These are called labour
0:20:43 > 0:20:47values and that is what we are standing up for.You're asking to
0:20:47 > 0:20:51stay in the single market. The problem with that is you thought an
0:20:51 > 0:20:56election last year under a manifesto which said that free movement will
0:20:56 > 0:21:00end.You cannot do both. I am in the migration committee on the Council
0:21:00 > 0:21:04of Europe. Lots of people are willing to talk about how we make
0:21:04 > 0:21:07freedom of movement work. They recognise politicians have not got
0:21:07 > 0:21:11it right across the continent. If we are not fighting to stay in the
0:21:11 > 0:21:14single market we cannot have that conversation about what the reformed
0:21:14 > 0:21:18freedom of movement might look like. I think freedom of movement is an
0:21:18 > 0:21:22important right for people in this country. I do not want to have to
0:21:22 > 0:21:25see the kids in Walthamstow Birkenhead that their ability to
0:21:25 > 0:21:28work for a company that has a base outside the UK will be hampered by
0:21:28 > 0:21:36decisions we've made. That puts them in an austerity Britain and I do not
0:21:36 > 0:21:39want to do that.Frank Field, does this sound like a Brexit you could
0:21:39 > 0:21:43sell to any leave photo?No, and you know perfectly well we cannot sell
0:21:43 > 0:21:48it. I am looking forward to what Jeremy Corbyn says tomorrow because
0:21:48 > 0:21:54you have hyped it up. On every vote we have had Onuora before he came --
0:21:54 > 0:21:58before he became leader, Jeremy Corbyn and I were deeply suspicious
0:21:58 > 0:22:02of this organisation which is corrupt, it has never got its
0:22:02 > 0:22:07accounts audited, it is bankrupt. Whatever he says tomorrow he will
0:22:07 > 0:22:11not be arguing to stay in the EU, he will be arguing for the customs
0:22:11 > 0:22:19union?Please, let me finish. It is deeply corrupt. It is bankrupt. It
0:22:19 > 0:22:24has destabilised Europe with all this pretence about it has brought
0:22:24 > 0:22:30peace. Look what we have done to the area around Russia. Given there are
0:22:30 > 0:22:34number of states within Europe who depend on our contribution, we
0:22:34 > 0:22:39should be voting for a clear decorate -- a clear declaration, we
0:22:39 > 0:22:44want a free-trade area, and we have money. What are you going to choose.
0:22:44 > 0:22:47I think we should take the gloves off in these negotiations and look
0:22:47 > 0:22:52at the real power structure. They need our money, and for reasons
0:22:52 > 0:22:58which Stella Creasy has put forward, we need access to a free-market
0:22:58 > 0:23:01arrangement.What is your problem with Jeremy Corbyn saying that the
0:23:01 > 0:23:07Labour policy will be too clearly stay in a customs union?Two things.
0:23:07 > 0:23:12One, it goes against what we said at the election. It goes against all
0:23:12 > 0:23:18the scare tactics during the campaign, all the major figures were
0:23:18 > 0:23:22saying, you know, if you vote here, you're leaving the customs union,
0:23:22 > 0:23:26you're leaving the free market. There was no question about what the
0:23:26 > 0:23:33referendum was deciding. And the politics of this is, are we going to
0:23:33 > 0:23:37be run by a London agenda? I know Stella Creasy has got other issues
0:23:37 > 0:23:44that she reaches out across the country, but this is essentially a
0:23:44 > 0:23:46London agenda against Labour voters, particularly in the North.
0:23:46 > 0:23:51THEY ALL SPEAK AT ONCE You have got the mayor of Liverpool
0:23:51 > 0:23:55who signed this letter, the leader of Newcastle Council.You and I
0:23:55 > 0:24:00would in the lobby fighting together against this government's welfare
0:24:00 > 0:24:03cuts.£12 billion cuts.That is nothing to do with this. It
0:24:03 > 0:24:09absolutely is. Even the bare minimal model we are talking about would be
0:24:09 > 0:24:14ahead on our economy and the communities we represent. How can we
0:24:14 > 0:24:19vote Forestieri the? How can you do that to the voters, the People who
0:24:19 > 0:24:22work in the Vauxhall plants in the Wirral who are frightened they are
0:24:22 > 0:24:26about to lose their jobs. How can you do that to the People in
0:24:26 > 0:24:31Northern Ireland?Let me answer you, please. We have been through the
0:24:31 > 0:24:33courts. There is no problem about the Good Friday Agreement being
0:24:33 > 0:24:38challenged by this at all. We have got time, I am happy to discuss it.
0:24:38 > 0:24:42I think there are problems with the Good Friday Agreement and a customs
0:24:42 > 0:24:48union.No, it will remain. If we have time, I would love to discuss
0:24:48 > 0:24:54that with you. About austerity, can I answer that? We are net
0:24:54 > 0:24:57contributor. We will have money to be brought back. While some people
0:24:57 > 0:25:03have signed the order leaders even there, when you look at the
0:25:03 > 0:25:11parliamentary arithmetic, Mrs May almost hollowed out our vote in the
0:25:11 > 0:25:15seats were only kept by a handful of votes. These are seats which voted
0:25:15 > 0:25:20very clearly to leave. That is the act of faith. I know there are
0:25:20 > 0:25:24problems about how do you give the electorate the sovereignty to decide
0:25:24 > 0:25:28an issue and then bring it back into a representative parliamentary
0:25:28 > 0:25:35system, but the vote was cleared to leave. The bill is about leaving and
0:25:35 > 0:25:38whether we support that or not and if we do not support that, I think
0:25:38 > 0:25:42Labour voters will draw their own messages in the North.Please do not
0:25:42 > 0:25:46drive Boris's bars for the People of those communities. You're saying
0:25:46 > 0:25:50that somehow we will get money back. All the evidence shows is that any
0:25:50 > 0:25:55money you get back will be dwarfed by what we will lose. You're talking
0:25:55 > 0:26:02about £1 billion coming back. THEY ALL SPEAK AT ONCE
0:26:02 > 0:26:07You can talk across me all you like, the numbers are there in the
0:26:07 > 0:26:10government's on analysis. That is what we have to front up to the
0:26:10 > 0:26:16communities we represent.Are you going to write on the People's
0:26:16 > 0:26:22decision to leave?You're coming out with all these things, we will stay
0:26:22 > 0:26:26in a customs union, we will stay in a single market, the decision was
0:26:26 > 0:26:32quite clear to leave. In the north, Labour voters voted very, very
0:26:32 > 0:26:39clearly. You going to rat on them or not? Never mind about buses and all
0:26:39 > 0:26:42the rest of it. It does matter. Let her answer. It
0:26:42 > 0:26:47is about the evidence that we now have. Democracy did not stop the day
0:26:47 > 0:26:51after the referendum.People have a right to see the detail.Of course
0:26:51 > 0:26:54they do. Do you accept that the government figures show clearly that
0:26:54 > 0:26:59if we stay in the European economic arrangement, which is out of the EU,
0:26:59 > 0:27:05we are still going to take a 16 pelt -- a £16 billion hit on our economy?
0:27:05 > 0:27:09That worse anything you get back. This letter is not just signed from
0:27:09 > 0:27:12people across the country but people across the trade union movement
0:27:12 > 0:27:18because they because they know the
0:27:26 > 0:27:28hard Brexit the government is pushing for and why it matters
0:27:28 > 0:27:30Jeremy Corbyn is fighting for the customs union and single market
0:27:30 > 0:27:32membership.It means jobs and wages. What we should be fighting forest
0:27:32 > 0:27:34sector agreements with the European Union. We want a free-trade area.
0:27:34 > 0:27:37They have always opposed the activities of the city. There is no
0:27:37 > 0:27:40need to worry about the city. There is a need to worry about
0:27:40 > 0:27:42manufacturing and we will make special arrangements with them. The
0:27:42 > 0:27:46issue is clear, do we disguise the fact by pretending we're going to
0:27:46 > 0:27:52have a customs union or some other arrangement which counters what the
0:27:52 > 0:27:57clear declaration of northern Labour voters actually said?They have
0:27:57 > 0:28:01changed their side. A third of Labour voters did vote for leave.
0:28:01 > 0:28:05You risk them abandoning the party. This is not about rerunning the
0:28:05 > 0:28:10referendum. It is about what kind of deal do we get and is it in the best
0:28:10 > 0:28:13interests of Britain. I believe voters across this country have the
0:28:13 > 0:28:15right to know what is likely to happen.
0:28:15 > 0:28:24THEY ALL SPEAK AT ONCE Of course they have a right.A right
0:28:24 > 0:28:30to every bit of information going. The key thing, we have had a
0:28:30 > 0:28:33referendum and we rarely use referendums for this reason, they
0:28:33 > 0:28:36are difficult to implement. The referendum decision was clear and
0:28:36 > 0:28:41particularly clear in the North from Labour voters. I want to keep faith
0:28:41 > 0:28:45with them. I voted to come out. I know it is harder for people who
0:28:45 > 0:28:53voted to stay in. Are we going to dress up a retreat, Agassi?Then
0:28:53 > 0:28:55there is a complicated decision for you to make. We've been talking
0:28:55 > 0:28:59about the amendment put forward by Anna Soubry and others, an amendment
0:28:59 > 0:29:03to the trade bill that will be voted on in a few time. There is a
0:29:03 > 0:29:06potential to defeat the government is Jeremy Corbyn comes out in favour
0:29:06 > 0:29:12of a customs union and whips his MPs to vote that way. If you had the
0:29:12 > 0:29:15opportunity to win a vote against the government and bring down
0:29:15 > 0:29:22Theresa May, would you vote with her to keep her in office or against?
0:29:22 > 0:29:24That is not the choice and you know that. That will be the choice on the
0:29:24 > 0:29:27day. We will have a decision, do we continue to implement the referendum
0:29:27 > 0:29:33decision. I shall be voting for that.Even if that is voting to prop
0:29:33 > 0:29:37up the government?It is not about propping up the government it is
0:29:37 > 0:29:41about implementing a decision of the People. The government has a
0:29:41 > 0:29:45majority on this. The idea that Anna Soubry is going to lead all these
0:29:45 > 0:29:49people into the labour lobbies is just fairy tales. But we will see on
0:29:49 > 0:29:53the night. The government will win comfortably and double figures on
0:29:53 > 0:29:57this issue.Frank Field, Stella Creasy, we will have to leave it
0:29:57 > 0:30:00there. Thank you very much.
0:30:00 > 0:30:03The local elections in May will see many seats in the big metropolitan
0:30:03 > 0:30:05councils in England up for grabs, and the Conservatives may need
0:30:05 > 0:30:07to brace for a difficult night.
0:30:07 > 0:30:09A YouGov poll predicts Labour could seize several
0:30:09 > 0:30:11Conservative councils in London, including one the Tories
0:30:11 > 0:30:12have never lost before.
0:30:12 > 0:30:16Emma Vardy looks ahead.
0:30:16 > 0:30:19Not since the swinging '60s has anyone done better in local
0:30:19 > 0:30:22elections than Labour could be about to.
0:30:22 > 0:30:26A recent YouGov poll is predicting Labour will sweep London
0:30:26 > 0:30:34with the best results for any party since 1968.
0:30:35 > 0:30:39One of the most enduring Tory strongholds is here.
0:30:39 > 0:30:42To this day, Westminster, with its largely affluent
0:30:42 > 0:30:46population of voters, has never had a Labour-run
0:30:46 > 0:30:52authority, but if the poll is to be believed, that could now change.
0:30:52 > 0:30:56This council has been Conservative-controlled ever
0:30:56 > 0:30:59since the borough was created in the 1960s.
0:30:59 > 0:31:03But if the swing was big enough to turn this council red,
0:31:03 > 0:31:05that would top off a very good night for Labour.
0:31:05 > 0:31:09The Conservatives are at position where they could potentially
0:31:09 > 0:31:13be left with just one, maybe two councils in all of London.
0:31:13 > 0:31:16I think that would be a bad night for the Conservatives,
0:31:16 > 0:31:19but it is possible.
0:31:19 > 0:31:23They are having to fight to hang on almost everywhere
0:31:23 > 0:31:25they still have representation.
0:31:25 > 0:31:27But away from London, it could be a different story.
0:31:27 > 0:31:32Birmingham City Council has been controlled by Labour since 2012.
0:31:32 > 0:31:36They hold around two-thirds of the seats here, but there
0:31:36 > 0:31:40is anger over a bin dispute that lasted for months and left tons
0:31:40 > 0:31:43of rubbish on the streets uncollected, and resentment over
0:31:43 > 0:31:47budget cuts that are affecting local services.
0:31:47 > 0:31:50It does not matter who is in because there is nothing between them,
0:31:50 > 0:31:53that is the problem, because Birmingham is basically
0:31:53 > 0:31:55screwed by central government, who have reduced all of our grants.
0:31:55 > 0:31:58There has been a lot of problems with the bin collections.
0:31:58 > 0:31:59Yes, there have.
0:31:59 > 0:32:01Oh, yes.
0:32:01 > 0:32:03The Labour run council got the blame for that?
0:32:03 > 0:32:05Yes, I would say so.
0:32:05 > 0:32:07The more it dragged on, certainly, yes.
0:32:07 > 0:32:11This will be the first all-out election for Birmingham City Council
0:32:11 > 0:32:13since boundary changes, so there are 101 seats
0:32:13 > 0:32:17here all up for grabs.
0:32:17 > 0:32:20It is a place Labour should do well, but could the party be
0:32:20 > 0:32:22punished over those bins?
0:32:22 > 0:32:24Back in the summer, of course, we had the bin strike.
0:32:24 > 0:32:27It was not the city's greatest moment in time.
0:32:27 > 0:32:30When I became leader of the council, I pledged we would resolve that
0:32:30 > 0:32:32dispute, which we have now done.
0:32:32 > 0:32:35We, the Labour Party here in Birmingham, are committed
0:32:35 > 0:32:37to maintaining weekly bin collections going forward
0:32:37 > 0:32:39for the next four years, a commitment I've yet to hear
0:32:39 > 0:32:44from either of the other two parties.
0:32:44 > 0:32:47Here in Birmingham, the council tax has gone up over 20% in seven years,
0:32:47 > 0:32:49but services have gone down, and people are seeing rubbish
0:32:49 > 0:32:52left on their streets, and they feel it is time
0:32:52 > 0:32:53for a change.
0:32:53 > 0:32:55There are plenty of other places who survive
0:32:55 > 0:32:56on fortnightly bin collections.
0:32:56 > 0:32:57With council budgets being constrained, is that
0:32:57 > 0:33:01not a sensible option?
0:33:01 > 0:33:03In Birmingham, we are absolutely clear that weekly bin
0:33:03 > 0:33:04collections need to remain.
0:33:04 > 0:33:09Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens remain much
0:33:09 > 0:33:12stronger in local government than they are in Parliament,
0:33:12 > 0:33:14and in May, they will be fighting to increase
0:33:14 > 0:33:17their local authority presence.
0:33:17 > 0:33:20While Ukip are likely to continue to struggle to reverse
0:33:20 > 0:33:23the party's decline.
0:33:23 > 0:33:26But if the story of the night is the biggest Labour
0:33:26 > 0:33:28success since the '60s, any high-profile defeats in Tory
0:33:28 > 0:33:31strongholds could start to make some Conservative MPs worry
0:33:31 > 0:33:35about their constituencies ahead of the next general election.
0:33:35 > 0:33:40Steve, Kate and Iain are still with me.
0:33:40 > 0:33:45Let's pick up on the local elections. Kate, should Theresa May
0:33:45 > 0:33:50be deeply worried about this, what she expected a bad night and what
0:33:50 > 0:33:53might the consequences be?No doubt she will be worried but my favourite
0:33:53 > 0:33:56thing is Everything is underlined by the fact people care more about
0:33:56 > 0:33:59things than other things that is what politics comes down to, at the
0:33:59 > 0:34:04end of the day. I think Theresa May will be worried. -- it comes down
0:34:04 > 0:34:11bins. It is a battle ground for those parties. Places like Haringey,
0:34:11 > 0:34:15if you see what has happened to Labour in those areas, and how
0:34:15 > 0:34:18powerful momentum and the left have become in local politics, you see
0:34:18 > 0:34:22how much it matters to Labour. I think the Tories will be worried,
0:34:22 > 0:34:26particularly about London. As the BT said, Labour expect to do quite well
0:34:26 > 0:34:30and that is not going to look very good. Brandon Lewis, the new
0:34:30 > 0:34:35chairman of the party, said last week we expect big losses in London.
0:34:35 > 0:34:38He is setting that already. I think the Tory party is worried. In areas
0:34:38 > 0:34:42like Birmingham and other areas around the country, Brexit is likely
0:34:42 > 0:34:45to be important and I think that's why it comes back to labour being
0:34:45 > 0:34:49modelled on Brexit. People vote with their feet. If the Tories can win
0:34:49 > 0:34:52back some seats like burning in other places, it might not be a
0:34:52 > 0:34:57massive all-out loss lost them on the night.Expectation management
0:34:57 > 0:35:03already being Manoj
0:35:03 > 0:35:05already being Manoj -- being managed. Actual voters telling us
0:35:05 > 0:35:08what they think. Did they have consequences that Parliamentary
0:35:08 > 0:35:15politics?They could do this time. It reminds me, Steve will remember
0:35:15 > 0:35:19this, 1990 when the Tories did disastrously in local elections.
0:35:19 > 0:35:27Kenneth Baker went out on the streets and exempted we kept once
0:35:27 > 0:35:30loved. I don't think that will happen this time. Kate is right,
0:35:30 > 0:35:34Brandon Lewis, the Tory party chairman has already started to
0:35:34 > 0:35:41manage expectations. He generally believe they are in for a drubbing,
0:35:41 > 0:35:46particularly in London. These will last up for grabs in 2014 when Ukip
0:35:46 > 0:35:50are doing well. In the last year, Ukip's vote has virtually
0:35:50 > 0:35:54disappeared. So all three other parties, their votes have gone up in
0:35:54 > 0:35:57by-elections. It depends where that vote goes, Wilbur Liberal Democrats
0:35:57 > 0:36:04be able to hold onto the seats they won in that year? -- Wilbur Liberal
0:36:04 > 0:36:07Democrats be able to hold onto the six? I think it will be a drumming
0:36:07 > 0:36:14but I think it will be patchy. Andy Street has been reasonably popular
0:36:14 > 0:36:18in the West Midlands. If they do that they will have a 1990 situation
0:36:18 > 0:36:22and that is all they will talk about.Even if they lose
0:36:22 > 0:36:26Westminster?Probably.How important is it for Labour to do well, do they
0:36:26 > 0:36:34seem to be be -- do they need to be seen making advances, to keep up
0:36:34 > 0:36:40with the idea they are on the Tory's heels?I think it is important for
0:36:40 > 0:36:43that whatever happens I don't think it will have a huge impact on the
0:36:43 > 0:36:46national picture because I think it will confirm the dynamics as they
0:36:46 > 0:36:50already are, in other words Jeremy Corbyn has been in a strong position
0:36:50 > 0:36:54since the general election and that will be confirmed. Theresa May has
0:36:54 > 0:36:58been in a fragile position since the general election and that will be
0:36:58 > 0:37:02confirmed. But by that point Brexit will be reaching or coming close to
0:37:02 > 0:37:07one of its several climactic son I think that will shape the national
0:37:07 > 0:37:10picture. The local elections will be really important for local
0:37:10 > 0:37:15government, who inherit the nightmarish budget. It won't change
0:37:15 > 0:37:22the national picture very much.Iain said Ukip's vote has been falling
0:37:22 > 0:37:25and they have had their troubles recently as well. Important to see
0:37:25 > 0:37:29where their vote goes and confirms we are moving back to two party
0:37:29 > 0:37:34politics maybe?I think it does nationally but locally it's a
0:37:34 > 0:37:37different picture because the Ukip vote tends to go on all kinds of
0:37:37 > 0:37:42directions. It doesn't necessarily go where you think it will. So the
0:37:42 > 0:37:45Liberal Democrats and the Greens do quite well at local elections,
0:37:45 > 0:37:48whereas nationally they don't do very well at all. I think sometimes
0:37:48 > 0:37:52you do see people who would vote for any other party going for any other
0:37:52 > 0:37:56party and not necessarily the Tories and Labour. I think it comes down to
0:37:56 > 0:38:02how much this comes down to Brexit. Do people care more about Brexit or
0:38:02 > 0:38:07bins question mark in areas like London, I think Brexit and bigger
0:38:07 > 0:38:12national issues will have a bearing. Brexit one way or another will help
0:38:12 > 0:38:20with your bins?London has become a Labour city. Huge capital city with
0:38:20 > 0:38:23millions and millions has become a Labour stronghold. That is
0:38:23 > 0:38:27significant for all kinds of reasons. It has also become as
0:38:27 > 0:38:32strong as it used to be in Scotland. Even in 2010 in the general
0:38:32 > 0:38:37election, London voted Labour by a wide margin. That is quite a
0:38:37 > 0:38:41significant development.We need to leave it there just now, coming back
0:38:41 > 0:38:43to you later in the programme.
0:38:43 > 0:38:45It's coming up to 11.40, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
0:38:45 > 0:38:46Still to come...
0:38:46 > 0:38:49We speak to Former Northern Ireland Secretary James Brokenshire
0:38:49 > 0:38:51about returning to Parliament after major surgery for cancer.
0:38:51 > 0:38:54First though, its time for the Sunday Politics where you are.
0:39:02 > 0:39:06Hello and welcome to the London part of the show - I'm Jo Coburn.
0:39:06 > 0:39:10Joining me for the duration, Karen Buck, Labour MP
0:39:10 > 0:39:11for Westminster North, and Andrew Rosindell,
0:39:11 > 0:39:12Conservative MP for Romford.
0:39:12 > 0:39:15Welcome to you both.
0:39:15 > 0:39:19Now I want to start with the speech the Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn gave
0:39:19 > 0:39:22this week, in which he said that if he became Prime Minister
0:39:22 > 0:39:25he would take on the City of London, saying finance should be
0:39:25 > 0:39:28"the servant of industry, not the masters of us all".
0:39:28 > 0:39:33Karen Buck, is it wise for Labour to use such provocative language
0:39:33 > 0:39:38towards a sector that employees 350,000 people in London?
0:39:38 > 0:39:42I think that absolutely we, and I feel very strongly
0:39:42 > 0:39:44that the banking industry, the finance industry, is essential
0:39:44 > 0:39:49to London's economy and essential to the national economy.
0:39:49 > 0:39:52So I very much support the need, and the need in EU negotiations,
0:39:52 > 0:39:54to have a healthy finance industry.
0:39:54 > 0:39:57But I don't think it's controversial, either,
0:39:57 > 0:40:00to say that the British economy has been too heavily balanced
0:40:00 > 0:40:04towards the finance sector and we need to rebalance that.
0:40:04 > 0:40:08And even now, when we are finally beginning to emerge ten years
0:40:08 > 0:40:10after the banking crisis, there's still a number of issues
0:40:10 > 0:40:12in the banking industry that need to be resolved.
0:40:12 > 0:40:14But Jeremy Corbyn claimed the city had undue influence over
0:40:14 > 0:40:16over politics which was pernicious and undemocratic.
0:40:16 > 0:40:17Is he right?
0:40:17 > 0:40:21Well, I wouldn't use those words.
0:40:21 > 0:40:24I mean, I don't always have to use all of those words,
0:40:24 > 0:40:27but I think it's absolutely right that the finance industry doesn't
0:40:27 > 0:40:30always, hasn't always had the long-term investment interests
0:40:30 > 0:40:32of the wider British economy, particularly in manufacturing,
0:40:32 > 0:40:34that we need to see.
0:40:34 > 0:40:37That's something that George Osborne and David Cameron
0:40:37 > 0:40:39were saying as well, so what ever the words,
0:40:39 > 0:40:44I think the issue about the British economy and making sure finance
0:40:44 > 0:40:47is a servant of that is perfectly reasonable.
0:40:47 > 0:40:52Andrew Rosindell, the Tories now can hardly claim to be a friend
0:40:52 > 0:40:55of the city because of the fears over passporting rights being lost
0:40:55 > 0:40:58in the City of London and some bankers have said
0:40:58 > 0:41:01that they will move staff and operations if there are any
0:41:01 > 0:41:03risks to that in the future.
0:41:03 > 0:41:07Well, we've heard all this for a long time and no real evidence
0:41:07 > 0:41:10that there is any substantial move away from the city.
0:41:10 > 0:41:11Can you guarantee things like passporting rights?
0:41:11 > 0:41:13There's no guarantee of anything, because the negotiations
0:41:13 > 0:41:16haven't been completed.
0:41:16 > 0:41:18The reality is, though, that the European countries
0:41:18 > 0:41:24need the City of London for their own purposes as well.
0:41:24 > 0:41:26So I don't see they're going to somehow punish
0:41:26 > 0:41:27the City of London.
0:41:27 > 0:41:30I think the City of London is actually getting more
0:41:30 > 0:41:32worried about the prospect of a Jeremy Corbyn government,
0:41:32 > 0:41:35and how that would undermine our financial services industry.
0:41:35 > 0:41:37Right, but would you say that actually there's too much
0:41:37 > 0:41:40deregulation in the past, supported by your government and
0:41:40 > 0:41:41also the previous Labour government?
0:41:41 > 0:41:43I think both governments have deregulated, certainly the eye
0:41:43 > 0:41:46was taken off the ball, which led to some of the problems
0:41:46 > 0:41:47we faced ten years ago.
0:41:47 > 0:41:48And you backed that?
0:41:48 > 0:41:54Well, no party can say they are innocent when it comes
0:41:54 > 0:41:57to ensuring that that situation was dealt with at the time.
0:41:57 > 0:41:59There's no doubt about that.
0:41:59 > 0:42:02But let's be honest about it, without the City of London,
0:42:02 > 0:42:04the income that brings into our economy is huge.
0:42:04 > 0:42:06The jobs it creates, and the City of London effectively
0:42:06 > 0:42:09funds the entire National Health Service.
0:42:09 > 0:42:13So any policies that undermine the strength of the City of London
0:42:13 > 0:42:15will be cutting off our nose to spite our face.
0:42:15 > 0:42:16Thank you.
0:42:16 > 0:42:19Now, there's going to be a major reform of local policing in London.
0:42:19 > 0:42:22The main change will see the merger of 32 borough commands
0:42:22 > 0:42:24into 12 larger units.
0:42:24 > 0:42:28Police officer numbers will likely also drop to 30,000 by April.
0:42:28 > 0:42:31So what will all this mean for day to day policing in London?
0:42:31 > 0:42:34Bhavani Vadde reports.
0:42:34 > 0:42:37These two young men were stabbed to death in Camden within the space
0:42:37 > 0:42:42of hours on Tuesday night.
0:42:42 > 0:42:45Rising knife crime is something the Metropolitan Police has
0:42:45 > 0:42:49to tackle in the face of severe financial pressures.
0:42:49 > 0:42:5170% of the Force's funding is from central government,
0:42:51 > 0:42:56with City Hall responsible for about 20%.
0:42:56 > 0:42:59The Home Office grant has remained the same,
0:42:59 > 0:43:05at around £1.9 billion in the past few years.
0:43:05 > 0:43:07The mayor says that represents funding cuts in real terms,
0:43:07 > 0:43:10so to help plug the shortfall, the Met is making major
0:43:10 > 0:43:11changes to local policing.
0:43:11 > 0:43:16The current 32 borough commands, where each council area
0:43:16 > 0:43:19has its own police team, will be merged to 12 command units,
0:43:19 > 0:43:23meaning a loss of 1500 jobs.
0:43:23 > 0:43:27And Londoners will see even fewer police officers.
0:43:27 > 0:43:31The Met expects numbers to drop below 30,000 by April,
0:43:31 > 0:43:34and that's the first time that's happened since 2003.
0:43:34 > 0:43:37Officer numbers could fall even further, to around 27,000, by 2021.
0:43:37 > 0:43:43So what impact will all this have on policing the capital?
0:43:43 > 0:43:47I think we're not at breaking point yet, but if we carry in the way that
0:43:47 > 0:43:55they're talking about, I think within the next 18-20 months
0:44:01 > 0:44:04the problems will be that we can't cope with incidents that are put
0:44:04 > 0:44:05in front of us.
0:44:05 > 0:44:07If we had, for instance, what we had last year,
0:44:07 > 0:44:09with London Bridge, Westminster Bridge,
0:44:09 > 0:44:12Grenfell Tower, Finsbury Park - all these incidents happening one
0:44:12 > 0:44:13after the other throughout the course of the year,
0:44:13 > 0:44:17at some stage my colleagues are just going to be drained and not be
0:44:17 > 0:44:18able to deal with it.
0:44:18 > 0:44:21On the same day as those murders in Camden, we were with officers
0:44:21 > 0:44:23searching for hidden knives in the neighbouring
0:44:23 > 0:44:24borough of Islington.
0:44:24 > 0:44:27The policing operations of Camden and Islington were brought
0:44:27 > 0:44:28together to test the idea of merging borough commands.
0:44:28 > 0:44:30Jessica Learmond-Criqui is the chair of a safer neighbourhood
0:44:30 > 0:44:32panel in that pilot area.
0:44:32 > 0:44:34The impact of the merger has been quite stark.
0:44:34 > 0:44:36Those who suffer anti-social crime, low-level crime
0:44:36 > 0:44:39know they are not safe.
0:44:39 > 0:44:43Those are areas where the Met of not bothering to investigate,
0:44:43 > 0:44:47they are not bothering to mount investigations, they just simply
0:44:47 > 0:44:52don't have the manpower, and that is a direct result
0:44:52 > 0:44:54of the pressure that they have through the cost cuts they have
0:44:54 > 0:44:57to make, because of the underfunding by government and by the mayor.
0:44:57 > 0:44:59It's a disaster for London.
0:44:59 > 0:45:04The Force needs to save £325 million by 2022 and has already cut
0:45:04 > 0:45:07£600 million from budgets in recent years, resulting in the loss
0:45:07 > 0:45:15of police officers and stations.
0:45:15 > 0:45:16This is highly challenging.
0:45:16 > 0:45:19The reduction in numbers, the change in the pattern of demand,
0:45:19 > 0:45:22the current risk around terror and so on is undoubtably,
0:45:22 > 0:45:25it's a huge challenge for the Met at the moment,
0:45:25 > 0:45:28and coupled with the financial challenge, it means we have to think
0:45:28 > 0:45:29about doing some things differently.
0:45:29 > 0:45:32Our job is to make sure we are best able to protect London,
0:45:32 > 0:45:34both from the large-scale events and from the local needs,
0:45:34 > 0:45:39and that's what we're doing with this reorganisation.
0:45:39 > 0:45:42This week, Sadiq Khan committed an extra £110 million for the Met
0:45:42 > 0:45:48in the next financial year.
0:45:48 > 0:45:50He claims this means City Hall is paying a greater
0:45:50 > 0:45:53percentage of the Met's budget than ever before.
0:45:53 > 0:45:56We hope that this will future proof the Metropolitan Police Service
0:45:56 > 0:45:58for the coming years, to enable them to deliver a better
0:45:58 > 0:46:00service, with less resources.
0:46:00 > 0:46:02In a statement, the Home Office said...
0:46:14 > 0:46:20The mergers will be rolled out across London over the next year,
0:46:20 > 0:46:24so will the Met be able to do more with less?
0:46:24 > 0:46:27Well, I'm joined by Liberal Democrat peer Lord Brian Paddick, a former
0:46:27 > 0:46:30Deputy Assistant Commissioner at the Met, who was once responsible
0:46:30 > 0:46:32for territorial policing across London's boroughs.
0:46:32 > 0:46:33Welcome to the programme.
0:46:33 > 0:46:36Thank you.
0:46:36 > 0:46:39Brian, as a former borough commander, how would you have felt
0:46:39 > 0:46:42taking over more than one borough under your control?
0:46:42 > 0:46:43Well, it's extremely challenging.
0:46:43 > 0:46:45So, for example, they're going to merge Sutton,
0:46:45 > 0:46:49Bromley and Croydon.
0:46:49 > 0:46:57Sutton is Liberal Democrat, Bromley is Conservative, Croydon is Labour.
0:46:57 > 0:47:00Potentially different priorities at each different local authority.
0:47:00 > 0:47:05How as one borough commander can you manage those different demands?
0:47:05 > 0:47:07But the politics aside, could you do it physically and practically?
0:47:07 > 0:47:12Well, when I was the borough commander for Lambeth,
0:47:12 > 0:47:15I struggled to be visible and to be an effective leader just with one
0:47:15 > 0:47:19borough, let alone over that enormous geographic area.
0:47:19 > 0:47:25Right, but for the people who are being served
0:47:25 > 0:47:27by the Metropolitan Police, how will merging commands
0:47:27 > 0:47:29affect your ability to do your job?
0:47:29 > 0:47:31Well, I think officers, because they are closing police
0:47:31 > 0:47:36stations, they are closing places from which officers deployed,
0:47:36 > 0:47:39stations, they are closing places from which officers are deployed,
0:47:39 > 0:47:42officers are going to have to travel longer distances to get
0:47:42 > 0:47:43to the places where they do their policing,
0:47:43 > 0:47:46whether it is reporting a crime or patrolling.
0:47:46 > 0:47:50So they're going to waste an awful amount, a lot of time travelling
0:47:50 > 0:47:52from one place to another.
0:47:52 > 0:47:56Time which they should be spending either visible on the street
0:47:56 > 0:47:57or investigating crime or caring for victims.
0:47:57 > 0:48:00Andrew Rosindell, do you accept that police will no longer be as visible
0:48:00 > 0:48:02as they have been if you merge different are commands?
0:48:02 > 0:48:03Oh, absolutely.
0:48:03 > 0:48:04It's a catastrophe.
0:48:04 > 0:48:07What Sadiq Khan is doing to boroughs like Havering, for instance,
0:48:07 > 0:48:09he's taking police off the streets in my constituency and
0:48:09 > 0:48:12sending them to Barking and Dagenham, into Redbridge.
0:48:12 > 0:48:15The police don't know those areas from Havering,
0:48:15 > 0:48:18they are higher crime, so boroughs like Havering
0:48:18 > 0:48:20are going to really suffer through this policy.
0:48:20 > 0:48:24But is that central government's fault?
0:48:24 > 0:48:26City Hall says since 2010-11 the Met's general grant funding
0:48:26 > 0:48:28from the government has fallen by more than £700 billion,
0:48:28 > 0:48:30or nearly 40% in real terms.
0:48:30 > 0:48:31Why aren't you making representations to
0:48:31 > 0:48:32Theresa May's government?
0:48:32 > 0:48:35There's more funding needed across-the-board, I accept that.
0:48:35 > 0:48:35Right.
0:48:35 > 0:48:38But the Mayor of London has the power to increase the precept.
0:48:38 > 0:48:41He's got reserves that he could use that he's refusing to use.
0:48:41 > 0:48:43But he has given extra money, hasn't he?
0:48:43 > 0:48:45And the government are giving him more money this year,
0:48:45 > 0:48:49so he has to be held to account for what he's doing to boroughs
0:48:49 > 0:48:51like Havering, which are hugely harmed by his policies.
0:48:51 > 0:48:54Do you support the idea of merging borough commands?
0:48:54 > 0:48:57I would rather not be faced with any of these
0:48:57 > 0:48:59pressures that we are dealing with as a consequence of the cuts
0:48:59 > 0:49:00in government grants.
0:49:00 > 0:49:05It is up to Sadiq Khan how he spends his money?
0:49:05 > 0:49:08Yes, and what the mayor is doing, and I have considerable sympathy
0:49:08 > 0:49:11with this, is looking at ways in which he can be sure that
0:49:11 > 0:49:14when you have massive cuts to the amount that you're able
0:49:14 > 0:49:17to spend, that you would have it spent on frontline policing,
0:49:17 > 0:49:20rather than the management command structures and indeed some
0:49:20 > 0:49:23of the police stations.
0:49:23 > 0:49:27In an ideal world we would not be dealing with the fact that we have
0:49:27 > 0:49:29lost £700 million and another £350 million to come,
0:49:29 > 0:49:31but that is the world we are in.
0:49:31 > 0:49:33Who do you think is responsible for funding cuts facing the Met?
0:49:33 > 0:49:3670% of the budget for the Met comes from central government.
0:49:36 > 0:49:39Central government is not increasing the amount given to the Met
0:49:39 > 0:49:41in line with inflation, therefore there is a real terms
0:49:41 > 0:49:46cut in terms of funding from central government.
0:49:46 > 0:49:49It is not right to blame Sadiq Khan for the merger of these boroughs.
0:49:49 > 0:49:52That is an operational decision that has been made by senior officers
0:49:52 > 0:49:54in the Metropolitan Police Service in response to this significant cut
0:49:54 > 0:49:59in budget from central government.
0:49:59 > 0:50:01Right, but actually the mayor has said that the changes
0:50:01 > 0:50:04will offer better and more integrated local policing.
0:50:04 > 0:50:06On the one hand he is blaming central government in the way
0:50:06 > 0:50:09that you have just done, for reducing funding,
0:50:09 > 0:50:11and on the other hand, he saying that by merging these
0:50:11 > 0:50:13borough commands there will be a more integrated
0:50:13 > 0:50:15local police service, is that not correct?
0:50:15 > 0:50:18If you think you have got one borough commander now in charge
0:50:18 > 0:50:21of three boroughs instead of in charge of one,
0:50:21 > 0:50:23you can say there's going to be integrated leadership,
0:50:23 > 0:50:27but the fact is, there are not enough police officers
0:50:27 > 0:50:32to be able to do the job, they will be spread more thinly,
0:50:32 > 0:50:35they will have to travel longer distances, the public will see less
0:50:35 > 0:50:37police officers, there will be less time to investigate crime.
0:50:37 > 0:50:39What would your solution be?
0:50:39 > 0:50:42There has to be an increase in the amount of money provided
0:50:42 > 0:50:44by central government which is why the Liberal Democrats at the last
0:50:44 > 0:50:47general election pledged an extra £1.2 billion for policing,
0:50:47 > 0:50:50more than any other party.
0:50:50 > 0:50:52Right, and you were hurt on this issue, the Conservatives,
0:50:52 > 0:50:54in the general election.
0:50:54 > 0:50:57Do you accept that more money has to be found or do you think this
0:50:57 > 0:51:00is a case of the police always asking for funds?
0:51:00 > 0:51:03I do, I agree with Brian, there does need to be more funding
0:51:03 > 0:51:05from central government but the mayor needs to do a lot
0:51:05 > 0:51:11more than he is doing, and it needs to be fairly resourced,
0:51:11 > 0:51:14so outer London boroughs simply get a raw deal from this.
0:51:14 > 0:51:18You know as well as I do that outer London is effectively funding inner
0:51:18 > 0:51:21London and areas like Havering are not getting the resources
0:51:21 > 0:51:23we need to fight crime.
0:51:23 > 0:51:26We are seeing a massive increase in crime but we do not
0:51:26 > 0:51:29have the resources to deal with it.
0:51:29 > 0:51:30It is not really a competition.
0:51:30 > 0:51:32We all need additional resources.
0:51:32 > 0:51:36But in Westminster, we have lost a third of our police since 2011
0:51:36 > 0:51:39so there is a real pressure on inner London, and what we need is to make
0:51:39 > 0:51:43sure that whatever scarce resources are available,
0:51:43 > 0:51:46they are going on the frontline, to the safer neighbourhood police
0:51:46 > 0:51:52and the response team so we can give some visible policing to people,
0:51:52 > 0:51:55rather than spending more on command structures.
0:51:55 > 0:51:57I would rather not have those choices but if that is the choice,
0:51:57 > 0:52:01let's put money on the frontline.
0:52:01 > 0:52:04Do you accept as a result of this move to merge borough commands
0:52:04 > 0:52:06and because of the reduction in funding, the deputy assistant
0:52:06 > 0:52:09commissioner in that film implied something has to give.
0:52:09 > 0:52:12Do you think it will happen at that low level, burglary,
0:52:12 > 0:52:14antisocial behaviour, they just will not be investigated.
0:52:14 > 0:52:16The truth is, under Sadiq, crime has risen dramatically,
0:52:16 > 0:52:18especially violent crime and that is really
0:52:18 > 0:52:19frightening people.
0:52:19 > 0:52:24That was not my question.
0:52:24 > 0:52:27Is something going to have to give in terms of what the police
0:52:27 > 0:52:28service is able to do?
0:52:28 > 0:52:30You're right, to deal with the violent crime,
0:52:30 > 0:52:34which is what people are worried about, what will have to give
0:52:34 > 0:52:36is the low-level crime, but we all know that low-level crime
0:52:36 > 0:52:37leads to worse crime.
0:52:37 > 0:52:40What we have seen, for example, in Norfolk, at one stage,
0:52:40 > 0:52:42was that police officers tend to gravitate towards the cities,
0:52:42 > 0:52:44to Norwich, leaving the rural areas denuded of police officers
0:52:44 > 0:52:47to the extent that government had to step in and give more
0:52:47 > 0:52:50money for rural policing.
0:52:50 > 0:52:52There is a real danger, Bromley, Croydon, Sutton...
0:52:52 > 0:52:55The outer boroughs.
0:52:55 > 0:52:57That officers will gravitate towards Croydon because that is
0:52:57 > 0:52:58where the highest crime rate is.
0:52:58 > 0:53:00And Havering towards Redbridge and Barking.
0:53:00 > 0:53:03Do you think Londoners are being put at risk by this
0:53:03 > 0:53:05policy of Sadiq Khan?
0:53:05 > 0:53:07If the money available is going on to frontline policing,
0:53:07 > 0:53:10I do not see why that should be the case.
0:53:10 > 0:53:12What we have seen is that in the pilot combined areas,
0:53:12 > 0:53:18there was an increase in response times, response times improved.
0:53:18 > 0:53:21In that respect, absolutely it should not do it.
0:53:21 > 0:53:25If there has been an increase in response times, surely that has
0:53:25 > 0:53:28been a positive out of this, even though you say it should not be
0:53:28 > 0:53:31a decision that had to be made as a result of funding?
0:53:31 > 0:53:33I think people are worried about whether these command
0:53:33 > 0:53:38structures should merge.
0:53:38 > 0:53:40There is an argument that says, we would really much rather
0:53:40 > 0:53:43have localised command, but what the police are saying to us
0:53:43 > 0:53:46is that they will get some advantage out of being able to pool
0:53:46 > 0:53:48the resources that are available in terms of resource policing.
0:53:48 > 0:53:51I have got to correct you again.
0:53:51 > 0:53:53It is not Sadiq Khan's policy to merge boroughs.
0:53:53 > 0:53:55It is the Metropolitan Police Service's response to reduction
0:53:55 > 0:53:58in the amount of money they are getting.
0:53:58 > 0:54:00That is what Sadiq Khan says, that is what the
0:54:00 > 0:54:01Metropolitan Police says.
0:54:01 > 0:54:03But he supports it?
0:54:03 > 0:54:05He has no choice.
0:54:05 > 0:54:07He has no operational control of policing.
0:54:07 > 0:54:10It is an operational policing decision to merge boroughs,
0:54:10 > 0:54:13that is what the commissioner has decided to do, Sadiq Khan
0:54:13 > 0:54:14has to accept that.
0:54:14 > 0:54:18Brian Paddick, thank you.
0:54:18 > 0:54:21The NHS is something of a battleground in the Brexit
0:54:21 > 0:54:24debate, with Leavers promising more money for the NHS, while Remainers
0:54:24 > 0:54:27say Brexit threatens skilled workers the NHS depends on.
0:54:27 > 0:54:31That applies especially to nurses in London,
0:54:31 > 0:54:34as 10% of the capital's nurses are from the EU, double
0:54:34 > 0:54:36the proportion in the rest of the country.
0:54:36 > 0:54:38This week the chair of the London Assembly's health
0:54:38 > 0:54:40committee called on the mayor and the government to offer them
0:54:40 > 0:54:43a "cast-iron guarantee".
0:54:43 > 0:54:45There are 5,000 nurses from the European Union
0:54:45 > 0:54:47working in London.
0:54:47 > 0:54:54We know that they are very concerned about what is happening, and I know
0:54:54 > 0:54:57that because of the impact of Brexit, less nurses are applying.
0:54:57 > 0:55:00For example, last year, we had 90% less residents of the EU
0:55:00 > 0:55:04applying to work in this country than beforehand.
0:55:04 > 0:55:06We have written to the mayor, this is the fourth time we've
0:55:06 > 0:55:09written to the mayor about this, that the mayor should put
0:55:09 > 0:55:11pressure on the government, that all those nurses,
0:55:11 > 0:55:13particularly in the NHS, who are working, should be given
0:55:13 > 0:55:17a guarantee that their future is safe here.
0:55:17 > 0:55:20What they have said so far is that they have an agreement
0:55:20 > 0:55:23in principle that people working in this country should be all right
0:55:23 > 0:55:24up to 29th March 2019.
0:55:24 > 0:55:26That is not good enough.
0:55:26 > 0:55:29In principle is not the same as a robust
0:55:29 > 0:55:34guarantee of their future and people need certainty.
0:55:34 > 0:55:37Here in the studio, I'm joined by Bernell Bussue
0:55:37 > 0:55:40from the Royal College of Nursing, and Alessandro Borca who is a nurse,
0:55:40 > 0:55:41originally from Italy.
0:55:41 > 0:55:43Welcome to both of you.
0:55:43 > 0:55:45First of all, what do you think is causing this
0:55:45 > 0:55:49nursing shortage in London?
0:55:49 > 0:55:53We have a general shortage across London, over 7,000 vacancies,
0:55:53 > 0:56:00of EU nationals, and we have got 14,000 vacancies across all
0:56:00 > 0:56:02of London, so one in six of our nursing posts
0:56:02 > 0:56:05are vacant in London.
0:56:05 > 0:56:07And that is not helped by the uncertainties
0:56:07 > 0:56:14for our EU colleagues as to whether they are going
0:56:14 > 0:56:18to have a long-term future in the NHS in the UK.
0:56:18 > 0:56:20You say it is not helped by that uncertainty.
0:56:20 > 0:56:22What is the underlying reason, the other broader reason
0:56:22 > 0:56:24for this nursing shortage?
0:56:24 > 0:56:26It is a complex issue and something that has been
0:56:26 > 0:56:31going on over a number of years.
0:56:31 > 0:56:34I think that we are facing the results of poor
0:56:34 > 0:56:42planning over a long period of time around workforce.
0:56:42 > 0:56:45We have also got the situation that there has been resources
0:56:45 > 0:56:48taken out of the NHS, and on top of that, we have got
0:56:48 > 0:56:56reducing numbers of people who can come into the NHS from outside.
0:56:58 > 0:57:00You're someone who came from Italy to work here,
0:57:00 > 0:57:03from the EU, as a nurse.
0:57:03 > 0:57:06What are your concerns now, bearing in mind the government has
0:57:06 > 0:57:09said that the rights of EU citizens who have settled and are working
0:57:09 > 0:57:17in this country will be maintained?
0:57:22 > 0:57:25Yes, of course, but the situation now is getting worse than it
0:57:25 > 0:57:28has and I have already seen some changes in my job.
0:57:28 > 0:57:31As a result of Brexit coming down, or a result of general government
0:57:31 > 0:57:32policy towards the NHS?
0:57:32 > 0:57:36As a result of Brexit and a vote in the referendum.
0:57:36 > 0:57:38Why, what changes?
0:57:38 > 0:57:41Because obviously people that came from...
0:57:41 > 0:57:46I am not surprised that lots of my colleagues,
0:57:46 > 0:57:49they want to come back to their previous original country.
0:57:49 > 0:57:53They came here to have a better future, to have a better life,
0:57:53 > 0:57:57and to contribute to this country, and now with this uncertainty,
0:57:57 > 0:58:00obviously, there is something that the government
0:58:00 > 0:58:04should be addressing.
0:58:04 > 0:58:08And are you considering going back to Italy?
0:58:08 > 0:58:11Well, I think that is something that I do not know, because obviously,
0:58:11 > 0:58:19I want to be entitled to remain, next year.
0:58:22 > 0:58:24Andrew, can the country really afford to lose nurses who have come
0:58:24 > 0:58:30from the EU originally?
0:58:30 > 0:58:34No, but nobody is suggesting that we want to lose any NHS workers
0:58:34 > 0:58:36who come from the EU or any other country, there is no reason why
0:58:36 > 0:58:39anyone should be afraid of that.
0:58:39 > 0:58:41Can you give a cast iron guarantee?
0:58:41 > 0:58:44Any EU citizen who is here will have guaranteed rights,
0:58:44 > 0:58:46the right to remain, there is no issue.
0:58:46 > 0:58:50All that will happen is in the future, if there
0:58:50 > 0:58:54are new NHS workers wanting to work in the UK, whether they are from
0:58:54 > 0:58:57the EU or the Caribbean, or the Philippines or India,
0:58:57 > 0:59:00it does not matter where they come from, they will be great workers
0:59:00 > 0:59:07and they will get a work permit and be welcomed.
0:59:07 > 0:59:09Does that reassure you, if you have got that
0:59:09 > 0:59:10promise from a politician,
0:59:10 > 0:59:13from the governing party that your rights will be guaranteed,
0:59:13 > 0:59:15will that make you consider staying?
0:59:15 > 0:59:18Well, there is a lot of discussion about Brexit
0:59:18 > 0:59:24and what will be in the future, but it is something we will see.
0:59:24 > 0:59:25It has made you nervous?
0:59:25 > 0:59:27Yes.
0:59:27 > 0:59:30Is the problem, Andrew Rosindell, the rhetoric, some of the language?
0:59:30 > 0:59:34You are right to say that those rights are being guaranteed,
0:59:34 > 0:59:36that is what the government has said and Labour supports that
0:59:36 > 0:59:39but in the end, people do not trust what politicians are saying
0:59:39 > 0:59:46about it, because of everything that has been said during the campaign?
0:59:46 > 0:59:49We have to work with reality and I say to Alessandro,
0:59:49 > 0:59:51you do fantastic work for everybody in the National Health Service.
0:59:51 > 0:59:55We want everyone to stay, there are jobs here for you,
0:59:55 > 0:59:55and you have guaranteed rights.
0:59:55 > 0:59:58So whatever you read in the media, whatever politicians may say,
0:59:58 > 1:00:01in the NHS, we value the work that foreign workers bring
1:00:01 > 1:00:04to our National Health Service, and that will continue,
1:00:04 > 1:00:09whoever is in power, and your rights will be guaranteed.
1:00:09 > 1:00:13It is not just about Brexit and uncertainty,
1:00:13 > 1:00:15because as we have stated, people's rights are guaranteed,
1:00:15 > 1:00:19certainly those up to March 2019.
1:00:19 > 1:00:22What about the broader issues affecting nursing that is it is just
1:00:22 > 1:00:25no longer as attractive a profession to go into because of a lack
1:00:25 > 1:00:26of funding and training?
1:00:26 > 1:00:30I think that is right and it is important to stress that
1:00:30 > 1:00:34however much there is a guarantee for the pre-March 2019 people,
1:00:34 > 1:00:36there is a lot of background scepticism about the process
1:00:36 > 1:00:40and the background noise in which people are making that
1:00:40 > 1:00:44decision and we are seeing this very clearly, not just in nursing,
1:00:44 > 1:00:48but in the recent figures that show what is happening to EU nationals
1:00:48 > 1:00:51coming to this country to work more generally.
1:00:51 > 1:00:54Then there is, as you say, the wider issue, the pressure
1:00:54 > 1:00:56on the health service, which is in the middle
1:00:56 > 1:00:58of its biggest financial squeeze since it was set up,
1:00:58 > 1:01:01but crucially, the failure to plan for the workforce,
1:01:01 > 1:01:04and the introduction of the nurse bursaries.
1:01:04 > 1:01:07We were promised when the nursing bursary system was abolished
1:01:07 > 1:01:11that there would be 10,000 more applicants.
1:01:11 > 1:01:14In fact, there has been a 23% fall in applicants.
1:01:14 > 1:01:17Briefly, would that make a big difference in terms
1:01:17 > 1:01:17of nursing bursaries?
1:01:17 > 1:01:19Absolutely, it is a 33% drop-off that we've seen
1:01:19 > 1:01:24since the bursary was withdrawn.
1:01:24 > 1:01:27We have real concerns about the future of nursing,
1:01:27 > 1:01:31because anything that impacts and creates a reduction in nursing
1:01:31 > 1:01:36creates problems around safe and effective delivery of care,
1:01:36 > 1:01:39and so we are really concerned about some of the issues around pay,
1:01:39 > 1:01:44and the consequences of Brexit etc.
1:01:44 > 1:01:46All right, thank you both very much.
1:01:46 > 1:01:49That's all we have time for, and thank you to my politicians, too.
1:01:49 > 1:01:52With that, back to Sarah.
1:02:00 > 1:02:02Welcome back.
1:02:02 > 1:02:05Now, he was the Northern Ireland Secretary at a crucial time
1:02:05 > 1:02:06in UK-Ireland relations.
1:02:06 > 1:02:10But late last year, James Brokenshire realised
1:02:10 > 1:02:13he had a health problem, when he began coughing up blood
1:02:13 > 1:02:15whilst on a break with his family.
1:02:15 > 1:02:17Tests revealed a cancerous lesion on his lung and at the start
1:02:17 > 1:02:20of the year he announced his resignation from the Cabinet
1:02:20 > 1:02:23to undergo major surgery.
1:02:23 > 1:02:26His operation was a success and, a few short weeks after being
1:02:26 > 1:02:28discharged from hospital, he has returned to Parliament
1:02:28 > 1:02:30and I'm delighted to say he's also joined us now.
1:02:30 > 1:02:32Welcome to the programme.
1:02:32 > 1:02:37Thank you very much, good to be back.How are you feeling?
1:02:37 > 1:02:41Remarkably well, very strong. First week back in Parliament, which was
1:02:41 > 1:02:45quite emotional, people coming up and giving you hugs. It's
1:02:45 > 1:02:52interesting how something like this, from across the comparative party, a
1:02:52 > 1:02:56unifying issue, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Nicky Morgan, coming and welcoming
1:02:56 > 1:03:03you back. And Labour MPs, SNP MPs and the Lib Dems, real warmth. It is
1:03:03 > 1:03:07a rarity, as we know at times, where some of the political bait is very
1:03:07 > 1:03:13intense, to have that very warm reception. So I was very moved.You
1:03:13 > 1:03:18look very vigorous, it is only about six weeks?About six weeks. The care
1:03:18 > 1:03:22and support I received from the NHS was absolutely outstanding. I just
1:03:22 > 1:03:28could not fault the hospital treatment that I received. I suppose
1:03:28 > 1:03:31being disciplined about getting back, getting myself fit, forcing
1:03:31 > 1:03:38myself to do lots of exercise, do lots of walks, having Cassiem my
1:03:38 > 1:03:41children, strong family support behind me as well, it has just been
1:03:41 > 1:03:47amazing. The number of people that are written in, e-mailed, wishing me
1:03:47 > 1:03:50and, whether they support my own party or not, just wanting me to do
1:03:50 > 1:03:55well. So yes, positive. The prognosis is good. I think I was
1:03:55 > 1:04:00lucky that I was able to pick it up early enough. But it has I think
1:04:00 > 1:04:07underlying to me a number of issues about lung cancer, as I had a small
1:04:07 > 1:04:12cancerous Schumer, where there is some stigma Ramis. Around 15% of
1:04:12 > 1:04:17cases of lung cancer have no link to smoking. I think people try and form
1:04:17 > 1:04:20some judgments, that is someone's fault. People shouldn't do that at
1:04:20 > 1:04:25all about cancer. It is about early intervention, picking it up early,
1:04:25 > 1:04:28following it through. There are many moments where I could have said, too
1:04:28 > 1:04:32busy, can't actually do this, but following that through, getting the
1:04:32 > 1:04:36treatment I needed, I am so delighted to be here feeling as
1:04:36 > 1:04:41strong as I am.You are having these tests at a fairly crucial time in
1:04:41 > 1:04:45the Brexit negotiations. You where Northern Ireland Secretary and at
1:04:45 > 1:04:47the very point when the Prime Minister was having to put together
1:04:47 > 1:04:51a deal acceptable to the EU and DUP about what was going to happen to
1:04:51 > 1:04:56prevent a hard border across Ireland at the end of last year, when you
1:04:56 > 1:04:59are still Northern Ireland Secretary, I am sure you have kept
1:04:59 > 1:05:02up with this even though you are now on the backbenches. We have been
1:05:02 > 1:05:06speaking on the programme about the possibility of a customs union with
1:05:06 > 1:05:11the EU. Is it necessary to have one in order to avoid a hard border on
1:05:11 > 1:05:16the island of Ireland?Last time I was here we were touching on that
1:05:16 > 1:05:20issue and the first phase negotiations that had concluded. In
1:05:20 > 1:05:24essence, the three elements we look at, in essence the negotiations on
1:05:24 > 1:05:30the trade arrangement with the EU, if that does provide the issues
1:05:30 > 1:05:33around the border, then specific proposals the UK Government would
1:05:33 > 1:05:36then make and that Ms backstop of alignment to deal with the
1:05:36 > 1:05:42North-South issues.That was a remarkable thing, because you've
1:05:42 > 1:05:46promised full alignment with the rules of the internal market and
1:05:46 > 1:05:51Customs union, basically keeping, in essence, the UK in the single market
1:05:51 > 1:05:54and Customs union if some other solution is found.It is also
1:05:54 > 1:05:56looking at the equivalence issues, of how you can create the same
1:05:56 > 1:06:00outcomes without having full alignment. I think that is
1:06:00 > 1:06:04important. This whole debate around the customs union actually comes
1:06:04 > 1:06:09down to, what is our future relationship with the EU? Do we
1:06:09 > 1:06:13need, as I believe we do, to be able to negotiate agreements externally,
1:06:13 > 1:06:18do we ensure we are not simply a rule taker, that we just abide by
1:06:18 > 1:06:22the rules and almost we voted to leave the EU but we are now even in
1:06:22 > 1:06:27a worse situation of actually being subject to everything but without a
1:06:27 > 1:06:33say at all. I just don't see that as tenable.Yet that is exactly the
1:06:33 > 1:06:36situation we find ourselves in is another solution to the Irish border
1:06:36 > 1:06:40isn't found, isn't it? That is what the Prime Minister signed up to,
1:06:40 > 1:06:43full alignment with the single market and customs union unless
1:06:43 > 1:06:48there is another agreement, which we haven't seen emerge?I believe we
1:06:48 > 1:06:51can agree with the EU, this free trade agreement, deals for goods and
1:06:51 > 1:06:55services, because it is the services element that is really crucial to
1:06:55 > 1:07:03this as well. Whilst also ensuring yes, we don't have that hard border
1:07:03 > 1:07:07emerging on the island of Ireland with everything that goes with it.
1:07:07 > 1:07:09The regulatory issues, yes, there are differences that already exist
1:07:09 > 1:07:12between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, particularly around some
1:07:12 > 1:07:15animal health and animal welfare issues. There is experience we can
1:07:15 > 1:07:18point to and there is a way forward, as to how we negotiate this in the
1:07:18 > 1:07:23weeks I had to get that right outcome.It needs to be started on.
1:07:23 > 1:07:25Michel Barnier wants an agreement about the Irish border before we
1:07:25 > 1:07:32move on to talking about the future trade relationship?The first phase,
1:07:32 > 1:07:35it's a tiered basis approach that we take on how it is about the broad
1:07:35 > 1:07:40issues first and how I believe we can negotiate an outcome that deals
1:07:40 > 1:07:44with the very sensitive issues of the Good Friday Agreement, the
1:07:44 > 1:07:46Belfast agreement, and also the broader issues and North-South
1:07:46 > 1:07:49co-operation on the island of Ireland. So it actually it's about
1:07:49 > 1:07:53going to back to those first phase negotiations, following it through
1:07:53 > 1:07:57and getting the right outcome for the island of Ireland, Northern
1:07:57 > 1:08:01Ireland and the UK as a whole.Some of your colleagues who want to make
1:08:01 > 1:08:03out the Irish border is something of a side issue we shouldn't get too
1:08:03 > 1:08:07worried about say things like the Good Friday Agreement is out of
1:08:07 > 1:08:11date. You must be worried when you hear them say things like that? You
1:08:11 > 1:08:15understand how sensitive it is?When I return to Parliament and made my
1:08:15 > 1:08:19first interventionist league, I was very clear on how the Belfast
1:08:19 > 1:08:24agreement, Good Friday Agreement underpins the situation, the whole
1:08:24 > 1:08:28freedoms and arrangements on the island of Ireland, how it remains as
1:08:28 > 1:08:33relevant now as it has ever done. I know some people picked up on does
1:08:33 > 1:08:38this define Brexit? I think actually there is a ground of commonality and
1:08:38 > 1:08:43realising how important this is. Yes, over time it maybe there are
1:08:43 > 1:08:47certain issues in slower time, once we get devolved government backed up
1:08:47 > 1:08:51and running that you could review, could look at this in a sensible
1:08:51 > 1:08:55fashion. There are certain things that perhaps people have pointed to,
1:08:55 > 1:08:58mandatory coalitions of devolved government in Northern Ireland,
1:08:58 > 1:09:01questioned if that is still the right way forward. That is a
1:09:01 > 1:09:05separate issue, that is in slower time. The Good Friday and Belfast
1:09:05 > 1:09:09agreement continues to underpin and needs to define how we look to the
1:09:09 > 1:09:13future.James Brokenshire, stay with us. We will bring in some of the
1:09:13 > 1:09:18rest of the panel. As you see it, is essentially the question of the
1:09:18 > 1:09:21border with Ireland always going to underline the Brexit talks and
1:09:21 > 1:09:25always be a problem, something difficult for hard Brexiteers who
1:09:25 > 1:09:29want nothing to do with the customs union to get around?It will always
1:09:29 > 1:09:32be a problem until there is a solution. The Irish government
1:09:32 > 1:09:36doesn't want to border, the British government doesn't want border,
1:09:36 > 1:09:39European union doesn't want a border. You have everybody trying to
1:09:39 > 1:09:46go to the point. There was a speech last September in Belfast, you were
1:09:46 > 1:09:49probably there, where it was suggested there should be a customs
1:09:49 > 1:09:54arrangement between Britain and the European Union, between Britain and
1:09:54 > 1:09:59the Republic of Ireland. He suggested that himself. From the
1:09:59 > 1:10:02Torquay, talks is giving at the moment you would think he had never
1:10:02 > 1:10:06said that. I don't know what form that would take but surely if you
1:10:06 > 1:10:09have all three parties to these agreements wanting the same outcome,
1:10:09 > 1:10:15there ought to be a way of doing this.A lot of other things people
1:10:15 > 1:10:21in the EU have said means the means of getting to that outcome is
1:10:21 > 1:10:27difficult?The outcome is easy, everyone agrees. Like the war in
1:10:27 > 1:10:30Iraq, everyone agreed, they wanted peace in the Middle East, how do you
1:10:30 > 1:10:36get there? The fact they all agree on the end is not that significant.
1:10:36 > 1:10:40Indeed, the first phase negotiation which you were nobly involved with,
1:10:40 > 1:10:44and of going tests on Don, reminds me of that first UN resolution in
1:10:44 > 1:10:47the build-up to the war in Iraq. Everyone could sign up to it because
1:10:47 > 1:10:53it meant different things to different people. This is the
1:10:53 > 1:10:55problem, as you know. The Irish government viewed it differently to
1:10:55 > 1:10:58the British government, who viewed it differently from the rest of the
1:10:58 > 1:11:02EU. Now we come to the crunch. I can see no way forward beyond some
1:11:02 > 1:11:05continued membership of the customs union. You can't have a separate
1:11:05 > 1:11:10arrangement for Northern Ireland, the DUP wouldn't buy it for a start.
1:11:10 > 1:11:13I gather that is one of the main reasons why Jeremy Corbyn, was a
1:11:13 > 1:11:17sceptic about all of this, is signing up to it, because he sees
1:11:17 > 1:11:24now this is the only way of keeping the open border.Talking of Jeremy
1:11:24 > 1:11:28Corbyn, one issue we haven't touched on is a story that has been running
1:11:28 > 1:11:31all week about Corbyn's contacts with so-called Czechoslovakian
1:11:31 > 1:11:35agent. It was interesting, the way it is played out, he attacked the
1:11:35 > 1:11:39newspapers for running the stories, really strong attacks from some Tory
1:11:39 > 1:11:44MPs against him which looks like they may have rebounded a bit?The
1:11:44 > 1:11:48thing looking back over this week which has become clear that has come
1:11:48 > 1:11:51out of this Jeremy Corbyn question is Labour know exactly what they are
1:11:51 > 1:11:54doing when it comes to social media and the Conservatives still probably
1:11:54 > 1:11:57don't. If you look at the way Jeremy Corbyn handled this issue, he made
1:11:57 > 1:12:02his Nvidia and put it out on YouTube and Twitter and it got thousands and
1:12:02 > 1:12:07thousands and thousands of hits. Rush might he made his own video. He
1:12:07 > 1:12:11didn't need to speak to newspapers or television to do it. It allows
1:12:11 > 1:12:15free rein to attack a story like this, where Jeremy Corbyn does
1:12:15 > 1:12:19actually have real questions to answer. Whether you think it is
1:12:19 > 1:12:22right or wrong or right or wrong he was giving state secrets, he still
1:12:22 > 1:12:26met this person and that is a question he has to answer. Brendan
1:12:26 > 1:12:29Bradley has had to apologise for the Tweety made. I think one point about
1:12:29 > 1:12:35this that we should all take away is his apology has been re-tweeted and
1:12:35 > 1:12:42is now an attack line and is vicious and picked -- vindictive or so
1:12:42 > 1:12:45people need to be kinder to each other.There was no evidence he was
1:12:45 > 1:12:49selling state secrets or knew any state secrets to give away for free,
1:12:49 > 1:12:52which is why you have this sense that actually the Tories went a
1:12:52 > 1:12:56little too far in describing him as a traitor, saying he betrayed the
1:12:56 > 1:13:00country and they were the ones... Hang on a minute, it was one MP that
1:13:00 > 1:13:05got taken to task for that.He's now been forced to apologise. The
1:13:05 > 1:13:09Defence Secretary said he betrayed his country.You said the whole Tory
1:13:09 > 1:13:11party, yes there were attacks on Jeremy Corbyn and there still are in
1:13:11 > 1:13:19the media. The Sunday time -- Sunday Times today has a 2-page spread
1:13:19 > 1:13:24today. Anyone under the age of 40 just discount this sort of thing. It
1:13:24 > 1:13:31is like in the general section, the stories had no effect on people
1:13:31 > 1:13:34under the age of 40.We have to leave it there, thank you all for
1:13:34 > 1:13:35coming in.
1:13:35 > 1:13:37Join me again, next Sunday at 11, here on BBC One.
1:13:37 > 1:13:40Until then, bye-bye.