:00:38. > :00:44.The morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. First, some Sunday
:00:45. > :00:49.morning cheer, if you are an MP, that is. You are set to get an 11%
:00:50. > :00:55.pay rise. The Chancellor has gone from zero to hero for some, who
:00:56. > :01:00.credit him for turning the economy around. We will be taking a fine
:01:01. > :01:02.tooth comb to his Autumn Statement. Should this man get a pay rise?
:01:03. > :01:09.Complete denial about the central Should this man get a pay rise?
:01:10. > :01:12.facts... And 11% pay rise for Ed Balls? He was certainly working hard
:01:13. > :01:13.facts... And 11% pay rise for Ed to be heard last Thursday. We will
:01:14. > :01:16.be reviewing his performance. What to be heard last Thursday. We will
:01:17. > :01:20.about this man? We will be joined by In the north`east: Help for the high
:01:21. > :01:27.It was just like a wall In In the north`east: Help for the high
:01:28. > :01:32.Street. But is it enough? And had on the capital, its politics and
:01:33. > :01:47.those who met him. With me, three scruffy eternal
:01:48. > :01:51.students. They would celebrate if they achieved a C+. But they are all
:01:52. > :01:54.we could afford and there will be no pay rise for them. They will be
:01:55. > :01:57.glued to an electronic device throughout the programme and if we
:01:58. > :02:02.are lucky they might stop there internet shopping and tweet
:02:03. > :02:08.something intelligent. But don't hold your breath. Janan Ganesh,
:02:09. > :02:12.Helen Lewis and Nick Watt. Last week, storms were battering Britain,
:02:13. > :02:16.the East Coast was hit by the worst tidal surge in more than a century,
:02:17. > :02:19.thousands of people had to be evacuated and Nelson Mandela died.
:02:20. > :02:27.The downed the news agenda was the small matter of George Osborne's
:02:28. > :02:28.Autumn Statement. His giveaways, his takeaways and his first opportunity
:02:29. > :02:42.to announce some economic cheer. It might be winter outside, but in
:02:43. > :02:50.the studios it is awesome. Autumn Statement time. -- autumn. This is a
:02:51. > :02:53.moment of TV history. Normally when the Chancellor delivers these
:02:54. > :02:56.statements, he has to say the economy is actually a lot worse than
:02:57. > :02:59.statements, he has to say the everyone predicted. This time, he
:03:00. > :03:00.can stand up and say the economy is better than everybody predicted. A
:03:01. > :03:09.lot better. Britain is currently growing faster
:03:10. > :03:17.than any other major advanced economy. Faster than France, which
:03:18. > :03:22.is contracting, faster than Germany, faster even than America. At this
:03:23. > :03:27.Autumn Statement last year, there were repeated predictions that
:03:28. > :03:31.borrowing would go up. Instead, borrowing is down, and down
:03:32. > :03:34.significantly more than forecast. But George Osborne said the good
:03:35. > :03:40.numbers still mean more tough decisions. We will not give up in
:03:41. > :03:44.giving in our country's debts. We will not spend the money from lower
:03:45. > :03:52.borrowing. We will not squander the harder and games of the British
:03:53. > :03:55.people. -- hard earned gains. In other news, further cuts to
:03:56. > :04:01.government departments. The state pension age will increase in the
:04:02. > :04:06.2040s, affecting people in their 40s now. There were some goodies, like
:04:07. > :04:09.discounted business rates for small businesses, free school meals for
:04:10. > :04:15.infants, favoured by the Lib Dems, and those marriage tax breaks below
:04:16. > :04:16.that by the Tories. But, as with all big fiscal events, it takes a while
:04:17. > :04:25.for the details to sink in. The marriage tax allowance is a
:04:26. > :04:28.long-standing commitment that he could not abandon. It does help
:04:29. > :04:32.those families were only one goes out to work. It does not go to
:04:33. > :04:36.higher out to work. It does not go to
:04:37. > :04:39.think. Perhaps it does, I can't remember. It makes me feel guilty, I
:04:40. > :04:45.am taking them very seriously, but... Shall I give you them? There
:04:46. > :04:50.is the Autumn Statement. Have that, a free gift from the Sunday
:04:51. > :04:56.Politics. Is there no limit to the generosity of the BBC?
:04:57. > :05:02.In the meantime, Twitter was awash with unflattering pictures of a
:05:03. > :05:09.red-faced Ed Balls giving his response. Some pictures were more
:05:10. > :05:13.than flattering than others. Is Ed Balls OK? Should we be worrying
:05:14. > :05:17.about him? He looks very stressed. There is nothing to worry about in
:05:18. > :05:20.terms of Ed balls and his analysis. He and Ed Miliband have been setting
:05:21. > :05:28.the pace in terms of the focus on the living standards crisis. It was
:05:29. > :05:32.very telling that there was not a mention of living standards last
:05:33. > :05:36.time, we got 12 mentions this time. Never mind what he was saying, by
:05:37. > :05:43.now everybody has a copy of the all-important paperwork. Time to
:05:44. > :05:47.hand over to number cruncher extraordinaire Paul Johnson from the
:05:48. > :05:50.Institute for Fiscal Studies. Of course it means that things are
:05:51. > :05:53.significantly better this year and next than we thought they would be
:05:54. > :05:57.just nine months ago. That has got to be good news. But it is also
:05:58. > :06:01.worth looking at the growth figures a few years out. They have been
:06:02. > :06:09.revised down a little bit. The reason is, the view of the office of
:06:10. > :06:12.budget response ability is that the long run has not really changed very
:06:13. > :06:16.much. We are getting a bit more growth now, but their view is that
:06:17. > :06:19.it is at the cost of a little bit of the growth we will expect in the
:06:20. > :06:24.years after the next general election. As the day draws to a
:06:25. > :06:27.close, the one place there has definitely been no growth is the
:06:28. > :06:37.graphics budget of my colleague, Robert Preston. It's as good as it
:06:38. > :06:41.gets these days, I don't think the viewers will mind. It's very Sunday
:06:42. > :06:49.Politics, if I might say. That is very worrying.
:06:50. > :06:54.Was this a watershed for George Osborne? Was it a watershed for Ed
:06:55. > :06:59.Balls? We can all make the case that it is the wrong sort of recovery, a
:07:00. > :07:03.consumer led recovery. People are spending money they don't have. At
:07:04. > :07:06.the end of the day, it for George Osborne, it is growth, the first
:07:07. > :07:10.time he has been able to talk about growth. It allows him to control the
:07:11. > :07:14.baseline, the fiscal debate for the next generation. For Ed Balls,
:07:15. > :07:18.nearly not a good performance. But don't write this man off. Judging by
:07:19. > :07:27.Twitter, Iain Dale, no friend of it all is, said he did a good interview
:07:28. > :07:31.this morning on a rival TV channel. I feel the fact that the Tories hate
:07:32. > :07:38.Ed Balls so passionately is probably a good reason that they should hang
:07:39. > :07:41.onto him, in that Labour sends his effectiveness. May be the Tories
:07:42. > :07:47.hope that they hold on to him as well? A lot of people shouting at
:07:48. > :07:50.someone and mocking their speech impediment, that is politics that
:07:51. > :07:53.doesn't make me want to engage. The takeaway will be lots of people
:07:54. > :07:58.thinking that none of these people are people they like. Who is the
:07:59. > :08:04.main heckler on the Labour front bench West remarked I suppose he
:08:05. > :08:07.can't cast any stones. It would be easier to sympathise with him, if it
:08:08. > :08:13.were not that David Cameron went through a similar situation and John
:08:14. > :08:21.Bercow did not step in to stop the wall of noise. It was guaranteed a
:08:22. > :08:24.good happen to a Labour politician. It's painful to remove him because
:08:25. > :08:32.he had a Parliamentary following and he will kick up a fuss. I think he's
:08:33. > :08:36.much more pragmatic on issues like business than Ed Miliband. I'm told
:08:37. > :08:43.he wasn't keen on the energy price freeze. The problem with Ed Balls,
:08:44. > :08:46.to have the first words that you say, the Chancellor is in denial,
:08:47. > :08:52.after he is presiding over growth, it means nobody is listening to you.
:08:53. > :08:56.Who would replace him? Certainly not Alistair Darling, the side of the
:08:57. > :09:00.referendum and even afterwards. Ed Balls did get a roasting in the
:09:01. > :09:03.press and on Twitter. He seemed to disappear from public view following
:09:04. > :09:06.the Autumn Statement. But a little bird tells me he managed one
:09:07. > :09:10.interview this morning before he went off to an all-important piano
:09:11. > :09:12.recital this afternoon. Watch out, Jools Holland, he could be after
:09:13. > :09:16.your job. How bad was Jools Holland, he could be after
:09:17. > :09:22.performance on Thursday? Here is the Shadow Chancellor in action. The
:09:23. > :09:28.Chancellor is incomplete denial about the central facts that are
:09:29. > :09:38.defining this government in office. He used to say he would balance the
:09:39. > :09:44.books in 2015. Now he wants us to congratulate him for saying he will
:09:45. > :09:50.do it in 2019, Mr Speaker. With this government, it is clearly not just
:09:51. > :09:58.the badgers that move the goalposts. No mention of the universal credit
:09:59. > :10:07.in the statement. IDS, in deep shambles, Mr Speaker. Chris Leslie
:10:08. > :10:14.is the Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury. He is Ed Balls's deputy,
:10:15. > :10:19.in other words. Why do more and more of your Labour colleagues think that
:10:20. > :10:23.your boss is below the water line? I'm not sure I accept the premise of
:10:24. > :10:28.your suggestion. I don't think my colleagues believe that George
:10:29. > :10:32.Osborne has a superior argument. I think Ed Balls will certainly trying
:10:33. > :10:35.his best, loud and clear, to make the case there is a cost of living
:10:36. > :10:39.crisis in this country and the Chancellor doesn't understand this.
:10:40. > :10:44.That was essentially the heat of the debate on the Autumn Statement day.
:10:45. > :10:47.One leading Labour MPs said to me that Ed Balls is always looking
:10:48. > :10:53.back, fixated with the rear-view mirror, that was the exact quote. A
:10:54. > :10:55.Labour MP told Sky News, Labour has a strong
:10:56. > :11:00.Labour MP told Sky News, Labour has unfortunately it was not made well
:11:01. > :11:09.in the chamber today. Quoting the Daily Mail, this is two poor
:11:10. > :11:15.performances. A quote that I can't use because it uses too many four
:11:16. > :11:19.letter words. Baroness Armstrong, speaking at Progress, a former
:11:20. > :11:22.Labour Cabinet minister, we are not sufficiently concerned about public
:11:23. > :11:26.spending, how we would pay for what we are talking about. Quite a
:11:27. > :11:32.battering? There were two sets of quotes you were giving. The couple
:11:33. > :11:36.were about the strategy for tackling public expenditure. I think it's
:11:37. > :11:41.fair that we talk about that. The rest were pretty unattributed,
:11:42. > :11:53.nameless sources. You have never given and of the record briefing? We
:11:54. > :11:56.have conversations off camera, but I don't think you have a wealth of
:11:57. > :12:02.evidence to say that somehow Ed Balls's arguments were wrong. He was
:12:03. > :12:06.making the point that, ultimately, it is a government that does not
:12:07. > :12:10.have its finger on the pulse about what most of your viewers are
:12:11. > :12:15.concerned about, that wages are being squeezed and prices are
:12:16. > :12:17.getting higher and higher. You have had time to study the Autumn
:12:18. > :12:27.Statement. What part of it does Labour disagree with? It is a very
:12:28. > :12:30.big question. I think the overall strategy the Autumn Statement is
:12:31. > :12:35.setting out does not deal with the fundamental problems in the economy.
:12:36. > :12:38.What measures do you disagree with? A lot of it is the absence of
:12:39. > :12:41.measures we would have put in if we were doing the Autumn Statement. If
:12:42. > :12:45.you are going to deal with the cost of living crisis, you have got to
:12:46. > :12:50.get productivity levels up in our society. One of the best ways of
:12:51. > :12:54.doing that is on infrastructure. We believe in bringing forward 's
:12:55. > :12:59.investment and housing, getting some of the fundamentals right in our
:13:00. > :13:11.economy. By planting, the business lending we have to do. We have seen
:13:12. > :13:14.a lamentable failing. There are big structural reforms that we need.
:13:15. > :13:19.Ultimately, the public are concerned about the cost of living crisis.
:13:20. > :13:23.That has got to be childcare help, a 10p starting rate of tax. Above
:13:24. > :13:28.all, and energy price freeze, which still this government are refusing
:13:29. > :13:34.to do. On Friday, you told me you supported the principle of a welfare
:13:35. > :13:37.cap. But you change bling claim the Chancellor's cap included pensions.
:13:38. > :13:43.You have now seen the figures, and it does not include pensions,
:13:44. > :13:48.correct? We do want a welfare cap. The government have said they are
:13:49. > :13:52.going to put more detail on this in the March budget. But it does not
:13:53. > :13:58.include pensions? We think they have a short term approach to the welfare
:13:59. > :14:00.cap. They put in some pension benefits. The state pension is not
:14:01. > :14:04.in the short-term benefits. The state pension is not
:14:05. > :14:09.we believe, a triple lock is a good idea. In the longer term, if you are
:14:10. > :14:12.talking about structural welfare issues, you do have to think about
:14:13. > :14:15.pensions because they have to be sustainable if we are living
:14:16. > :14:20.longer. I think that is about the careful management. Let me show you
:14:21. > :14:26.what Ed Balls said on this programme at the start of the summer. As for
:14:27. > :14:29.pensioners, I think this is a real question. George Osborne is going to
:14:30. > :14:33.announce his cap in two weeks time. I don't know if he will exclude
:14:34. > :14:38.pension spending or including. Our plan is to include it. Pension
:14:39. > :14:43.spending would be included in the welfare cap? That is our plan,
:14:44. > :14:46.exactly what I just said. Over the long-term, if you have a serious
:14:47. > :14:52.welfare cap structural welfare issues, over 20, 30, 40 year
:14:53. > :14:57.period, you can't say that we will not work and pensions as part of
:14:58. > :15:05.that. Pensions would be part of the Labour cap? In the longer term. What
:15:06. > :15:11.is the longer term? If you win 2015? We want to stick with the triple
:15:12. > :15:14.lock on the pension, that is the Government approach to their
:15:15. > :15:18.short-term welfare cap. In the longer term, for example, on the
:15:19. > :15:24.winter fuel allowance, we should not necessarily be... There are lots of
:15:25. > :15:27.benefits... I understand that, I am talking about the basic state
:15:28. > :15:34.pension, is that part of your welfare cap or not? In a 20, 30, 40
:15:35. > :15:44.year frame... Even you will not be around in government, then. You are
:15:45. > :15:48.writing me off already. You have to focus on welfare changes, pensions
:15:49. > :15:52.have to be affordable as part of that. It's dangerous to say, well,
:15:53. > :15:55.if you are going to have a serious welfare cap, we should not look at
:15:56. > :16:02.pensions cost. It would be irresponsible. Will pensions be part
:16:03. > :16:07.of the cap from 2015 until 2020 if Labour is in power? In our long-term
:16:08. > :16:15.cap we have to make sure... I'm talking about 2015-16. We haven't
:16:16. > :16:21.seen the proposition the Government has put before us.
:16:22. > :16:31.You claim people of ?1600 worse off under the coalition. That is true
:16:32. > :16:36.when you compare to pay and prices. Can you confirm that calculation
:16:37. > :16:41.does not include the ?700 tax cut from raising the income tax
:16:42. > :16:46.threshold, huge savings on mortgages because of low interest or the
:16:47. > :16:49.freezing of council tax? It doesn't include the tax and benefit
:16:50. > :16:55.changes. If you do want to look at those, last year, the ISS said they
:16:56. > :17:03.could be making people worse off. It might not include those factors. The
:17:04. > :17:09.VAT increase, tax credit cuts, child benefit cuts, they all add up. My
:17:10. > :17:15.understanding is that the ISS figures have said people are ?891
:17:16. > :17:23.worse off if you look at the tax and benefit changes since 2010. You have
:17:24. > :17:26.to look at wages and prices. The ISS confirmed our approach was broadly
:17:27. > :17:32.the right way of assessing what is happening. The Chancellor was
:17:33. > :17:38.saying, real household disposable incomes are rising. He is completely
:17:39. > :17:43.out of touch. Can you sum up the macro economic policy for Labour?
:17:44. > :17:47.Invest in the future, make sure we have the right approach for the
:17:48. > :17:51.long-term politicking. Tackle the cost of living crisis people are
:17:52. > :17:54.facing. Now, let's talk to the Financial
:17:55. > :18:02.Secretary to the Treasury, Sajid Javid.
:18:03. > :18:08.Discovery, underpinned by rising house prices, increasing personal
:18:09. > :18:13.debt, do you accept that is unsustainable?
:18:14. > :18:19.I accept the OBE are also said the reason why this country is facing
:18:20. > :18:25.more these challenges -- OBR. That is because we went through a
:18:26. > :18:33.Labour recession, the worst we have seen in 100 years. But do you accept
:18:34. > :18:39.that a recovery underpinned by these things I have just read out isn't
:18:40. > :18:44.sustainable? We set out a long-term plan for recovery, and again this
:18:45. > :18:49.week. We have shown with the tough decisions we have made already, the
:18:50. > :18:54.country can enjoy a recovery. There are still a lot of difficult
:18:55. > :19:05.decisions. The biggest risk are Labour's plans. The March
:19:06. > :19:09.projections work at for those -- for both business investment and
:19:10. > :19:15.exports. Suddenly it is expected to rise 5% next year, a 10% turnaround
:19:16. > :19:19.in investment. How is it credible? I have been in business before
:19:20. > :19:24.politics. Any business person listening will know, when you have
:19:25. > :19:30.gone through a recession, the deepest in 100 years, it will hit
:19:31. > :19:33.investment, profits, you can't make plans again until you have
:19:34. > :19:42.confidence in the economy. That is what this country is seeing now
:19:43. > :19:49.under this government. This is an assumption made independently. The
:19:50. > :19:55.fall in business investment is because of the recession. The
:19:56. > :20:01.forecast increases, 5% next year, and so on, it is based on the
:20:02. > :20:07.independent forecast. Based on fact. If you look at the investment plans
:20:08. > :20:14.of companies, this week, the Chancellor went to JCB, Jaguar Land
:20:15. > :20:18.Rover has plans to create more jobs, these investment plans are
:20:19. > :20:22.coming through now because of the confidence generated by this
:20:23. > :20:27.government, such as the cut in corporation tax which Labour would
:20:28. > :20:33.increase. Are the export forecasts more credible? The 15 years, our
:20:34. > :20:41.share of world trade decline. Suddenly starting next year, it
:20:42. > :20:45.stops falling. That's not credible. I worked in finance the 20 years. I
:20:46. > :20:54.have yet to find any forecast which is fully right. Under Labour, we
:20:55. > :21:00.would have forecasts made by Gordon Brown who would announce he would
:21:01. > :21:04.hit all his targets. Now we have an independent system.
:21:05. > :21:11.Do you accept, if exports or business investment do not pick up,
:21:12. > :21:15.then a purely consumer led recovery is not sustainable? We need more
:21:16. > :21:23.than a consumer led recovery. We need consumer investment to go up.
:21:24. > :21:26.On Xbox, it is noticeable that experts are primarily down because
:21:27. > :21:31.the markets we trade with, the eurozone markets, are depressed.
:21:32. > :21:36.Many have just come out of recession. Or they are still in
:21:37. > :21:47.recession. If you look at exports to non-EU countries, they are up 30%.
:21:48. > :21:52.120% to China. 100% to Russia. Will you keep the triple lock for
:21:53. > :21:58.the state pension beyond 2015? Yes, long term. That's why it is not part
:21:59. > :22:02.of our welfare cap. Chris Leslie cannot answer that question. It is
:22:03. > :22:10.straightforward. House prices are now rising ten
:22:11. > :22:18.times faster than average earnings. That's not good. House prices are
:22:19. > :22:23.rising, partly reflecting recovery. Ten times faster than average
:22:24. > :22:28.earnings, how can people afford to buy homes if it carries on? What you
:22:29. > :22:32.would hope, this is the evidence, if you look at the plans of the month
:22:33. > :22:39.companies, they are planning new homes which will mean that, as this
:22:40. > :22:43.demand spurs that investment, more homes will come about. We need to
:22:44. > :23:27.give people the means to buy those homes. We have introduced the help
:23:28. > :23:37.to buy scheme. I accept the OBR says it will start rising again but as
:23:38. > :23:51.household debt rises again Petr Cech reduces, -- as household debt
:23:52. > :23:56.reduces, we need to make sure there are checks in place. Wages have not
:23:57. > :24:05.been rising in real terms for quite some time. Over the next five years,
:24:06. > :24:16.even as the economy grows, by about 15% according the OBR to the OBR --
:24:17. > :24:22.but people will not benefit. These hard-working families will not share
:24:23. > :24:28.in the recovery. What is the best way to help those families? The
:24:29. > :24:33.government doesn't set wages. What we can do is influence the overall
:24:34. > :24:43.economy. We don't have a magic lever. Wages have been stagnating
:24:44. > :24:48.for five years. When will people get a proper salary? The best way for
:24:49. > :24:52.wage growth is a growing economy, more jobs. We have more people
:24:53. > :25:00.employed in Britain today than at any time in our history. The biggest
:25:01. > :25:05.risk to recovery is if we let Labour into the Treasury with more spending
:25:06. > :25:09.and more debt. Which got us into this trouble. By whatever measure
:25:10. > :25:16.you care to choose, would people be better off come the 20 15th election
:25:17. > :25:23.than they were in 2010? Yes, they will be. Look at jobs. Already more
:25:24. > :25:27.people employed than at any other time in history. Will they be better
:25:28. > :25:31.off? The best way for anyone to raise their living standards is
:25:32. > :25:39.access to a growing job market. But will they be better off? I believe
:25:40. > :25:44.people will be. Compared to 2010. Yes. In terms of take-home pay. This
:25:45. > :25:50.is a credible measure. Now, what do you think the Education
:25:51. > :25:54.Secretary, Michael Gove, was like at school? Hard-working? Hand always
:25:55. > :25:57.up? Top of the class? Well, if he wasn't passionate about education
:25:58. > :26:05.then, he is now. In fact, since he took office, it seems he hasn't
:26:06. > :26:08.stopped working very hard indeed. When the coalition came to power,
:26:09. > :26:11.Michael Gove evoked Mao, saying they were on a long march to reform
:26:12. > :26:17.education. Just like Mao, they faced a baby boom, so pledged ?5 billion
:26:18. > :26:22.for new school places. They extended Labour's academy programme. There's
:26:23. > :26:24.now about 3,000 in England. But then, they marched even further,
:26:25. > :26:32.creating free schools run by parents, funded by taxpayers. 174
:26:33. > :26:34.have opened so far. The schools admission code was changed, to give
:26:35. > :26:37.parents more choice. And a pupil premium was introduced,
:26:38. > :26:41.currently, an extra ?900 funding for each disadvantaged child.
:26:42. > :26:45.An overhaul of the national curriculum provoked criticism.
:26:46. > :26:49.Chairman Gove mocked detractors as "bad academia".
:26:50. > :26:54.Chairman Gove mocked detractors as didn't quite go to plan. Although
:26:55. > :26:58.GCSEs got harder, plans to replace A-levels had to be abandoned.
:26:59. > :27:04.Ultimately, the true test of these reforms will be what happens in the
:27:05. > :27:07.classroom. The person in charge of making sure those classrooms are up
:27:08. > :27:09.to scratch in England is the Chief Inspector Of Schools, head of
:27:10. > :27:15.Ofsted, Michael Wilshaw, who joins me now.
:27:16. > :27:20.Over the past 15 years, we have doubled spending on schools even
:27:21. > :27:25.allowing for inflation. By international standards, we are
:27:26. > :27:30.stagnating, why? I said last year that mediocrity had settled into the
:27:31. > :27:41.system. Too many children were coasting in schools, which is why we
:27:42. > :27:47.changed the grading structure, we removed that awful word,
:27:48. > :27:50.satisfactory. Saying that good is now the only acceptable standard and
:27:51. > :27:53.schools had a limited time in which to get to that. We are seeing
:27:54. > :27:58.gradually, it is difficult to say this in the week we have had the
:27:59. > :28:06.OECD report. Things have gradually improved. I will come onto that in a
:28:07. > :28:10.minute. Explain this. International comparisons show us flat-lining or
:28:11. > :28:16.even falling in some subjects, including science. For 20 years, our
:28:17. > :28:20.domestic exam results just got better and better. Was this a piece
:28:21. > :28:24.of fiction fed to us by the educational establishment, was there
:28:25. > :28:30.a cover-up? There is no question there has grade inflation. I speak
:28:31. > :28:35.as an ex-headteacher who saw that in examinations. Perceptual state is
:28:36. > :28:46.actually doing something about that. Most good heads will say that is
:28:47. > :28:50.about time. We have to be credible. Do politicians and educationalists
:28:51. > :28:55.conspire in this grade inflation? It might suit politicians to say things
:28:56. > :28:59.are going up every year. As a head, I knew a lot of the exams youngsters
:29:00. > :29:08.were sitting were not up to scratch. The latest OECD study places us 36th
:29:09. > :29:14.for maths, 23rd reading, slipping down to 21st in science. Yet,
:29:15. > :29:19.Ofsted, your organisation, designates 80% of schools as good or
:29:20. > :29:24.outstanding. That's another fiction. This year, we have. If we see this
:29:25. > :29:26.level of progress, it has been a remarkable progress over the last
:29:27. > :29:34.years since we changed our grading structure, then... In a year,
:29:35. > :29:39.absolutely. We have better teachers coming into our school system.
:29:40. > :29:42.Better leaders. Better schools. The big challenge for our country is
:29:43. > :29:44.making sure that progress is maintained which will eventually
:29:45. > :29:54.translate into better outcomes. These figures are pretty much
:29:55. > :29:59.up-to-date. Are you saying within a year 80% of the schools are good
:30:00. > :30:02.enough? All of the schools we upgraded have had better grades in
:30:03. > :30:07.enough? All of the schools we GCSE and grade 2. We have to make
:30:08. > :30:11.sure that is maintained. The Government has based its reforms on
:30:12. > :30:15.similar reforms in Sweden. In opposition they were endlessly going
:30:16. > :30:19.to Stockholm to find out how it was done. Swedish schools are doing even
:30:20. > :30:25.worse than ours in the tables. Why are we copying failure? The
:30:26. > :30:30.secretary of state believes, and I actually believe, as somebody who
:30:31. > :30:35.has come from an academy model, that if you hand power and resources, you
:30:36. > :30:38.hand autonomy to the people on the ground, to the people in the
:30:39. > :30:45.classroom, in the corridors, in the playgrounds, things work. If you
:30:46. > :30:49.allow the great monoliths that used to have responsibility for education
:30:50. > :30:53.in the past to take control again, you will see a reverse in standards.
:30:54. > :30:56.You have got to actually empower those people that make the
:30:57. > :31:02.difference. That is why autonomy and freedom is important. We spent a lot
:31:03. > :31:04.of money moving what were local authority schools to become
:31:05. > :31:08.academies and new free school czar being set up as well. When the
:31:09. > :31:12.academies are pretty much the same level of autonomy, the free school
:31:13. > :31:17.is maybe a little bit more, the evidence we have had so far is that
:31:18. > :31:20.they don't really perform any better than local authority schools?
:31:21. > :31:25.Indeed, Encore GCSE subjects, they might even be doing worse? These are
:31:26. > :31:30.early days. We will say more about this on weapons they when we produce
:31:31. > :31:32.the annual report. The sponsored academies that took over the worst
:31:33. > :31:35.schools in the country, academies that took over the worst
:31:36. > :31:41.difficult circumstances, in academies that took over the worst
:31:42. > :31:48.much better now. What about GCSE? They are doing GCSE equivalents, the
:31:49. > :31:53.lass academic subjects question my cull OK, but they are doing better
:31:54. > :31:58.than previous schools. If you look at the top performing nations in the
:31:59. > :32:08.world, they focus on the quality of teaching. The best graduates coming
:32:09. > :32:11.to education. They professionally develop them. They make sure they
:32:12. > :32:16.spot the brightest talents and get them into positions as soon as
:32:17. > :32:22.possible. We have got to do the same if we are going to catch up with
:32:23. > :32:26.those jurisdictions. This isn't just a British problem. It seems to be a
:32:27. > :32:29.European problem. The East Asian countries now dominate the top of
:32:30. > :32:34.the tables. What's the most important lesson we should learn
:32:35. > :32:39.from East Asia? Attitudes to work. We need to make sure that we invest
:32:40. > :32:44.in good teachers, good leaders. We have to make sure that students have
:32:45. > :32:49.the right attitudes to work. It's no good getting good people into the
:32:50. > :32:52.classroom and then seeing them part of teaching by bad behaviour,
:32:53. > :33:00.disaffected youngsters and poor leadership. We see young teachers
:33:01. > :33:05.doing well for a time and then being put off teaching and leaving from
:33:06. > :33:08.that sort of culture in our schools. Are you a cheerleader for government
:33:09. > :33:11.education policy rather than independent inspectors? I am
:33:12. > :33:18.independent, Ofsted is independent inspectors? I am
:33:19. > :33:22.things on standards. The Association of teachers and lecturers say you
:33:23. > :33:26.are an arm of government. The NUT has called for your resignation.
:33:27. > :33:30.Another wants to abolish or Inspectorate. Have you become a
:33:31. > :33:36.pariah amongst teaching unions? If we are challenging schools to become
:33:37. > :33:41.better, that is our job, we will carry on doing that. I am not going
:33:42. > :33:44.to preside over the status quo. We will challenge the system to do
:33:45. > :33:48.better, we will challenge schools and colleges to do better. We will
:33:49. > :33:52.think they are going wrong. Many think they are going wrong. Many
:33:53. > :33:55.people in the education establishment think your primary
:33:56. > :34:02.purpose is to do the Government's bidding by shepherding schools into
:34:03. > :34:07.becoming academies. Not true at all. You are a big supporter of
:34:08. > :34:10.academies? Yes, I believe the people that do the business in schools are
:34:11. > :34:15.the people that are free to do what is necessary to raise standards. I
:34:16. > :34:23.am a big supporter of autonomy in the school system. But where we see
:34:24. > :34:28.academies Vale, where we see free schools fail, we will say so. The
:34:29. > :34:34.study does not find much evidence that competition and choice raise
:34:35. > :34:37.standards, but it does go with you and say that strong school
:34:38. > :34:41.leadership, coupled with autonomy, can make a difference. Can somebody
:34:42. > :34:44.with no experience in education be in charge of a school? A lot of hot
:34:45. > :34:48.air has been expounded in charge of a school? A lot of hot
:34:49. > :34:51.of whether teachers should be qualified or not. If qualified
:34:52. > :35:00.teacher status was the gold standard, why is it that one in
:35:01. > :35:03.three teachers, one in three lessons that will observe are not good
:35:04. > :35:07.enough. Taught by qualified teachers. I've not yet met a
:35:08. > :35:10.headteacher that has not appointed by qualified staff when they cannot
:35:11. > :35:14.get qualified teachers. Their job is to make sure they get accredited as
:35:15. > :35:17.soon as possible and come up to scratch in the classroom. Do you
:35:18. > :35:19.support the use of unqualified scratch in the classroom. Do you
:35:20. > :35:24.teachers? I do. I have done it. If I scratch in the classroom. Do you
:35:25. > :35:27.could not get a maths, physics or modern languages teacher and I
:35:28. > :35:28.thought somebody straight from university, without qualified
:35:29. > :35:31.thought somebody straight from teachers start this, that they could
:35:32. > :35:36.communicate well with youngsters, I would get that person into the
:35:37. > :35:40.classroom and get them accredited if they delivered the goods. If we are
:35:41. > :35:43.going to allow schools to have more autonomy and not be accountable to
:35:44. > :35:49.local authorities, free schools academies, don't you have to do...
:35:50. > :35:54.New entrants will be coming into the market, the educational marketplace.
:35:55. > :36:01.Do you not have to act more quickly when it is clear, and there has been
:36:02. > :36:05.examined recently, where it is clearly going badly wrong and
:36:06. > :36:09.children's education at risk? Absolutely. I made a point to the
:36:10. > :36:12.something I will talk more about something I will talk more about
:36:13. > :36:15.over the coming year. We need to be in school is much more often. If a
:36:16. > :36:17.school fails at the moment, or underperforms, goes into this new
:36:18. > :36:20.category, underperforms, goes into this new
:36:21. > :36:27.stay with that institution improves. Sometimes we don't see a
:36:28. > :36:30.school for five or seven years. That is wrong. My argument is that Ofsted
:36:31. > :36:33.school for five or seven years. That should pay a much greater part in
:36:34. > :36:38.monitoring the performance of schools between those inspections.
:36:39. > :36:44.Are you enjoying it? It is a tough job. Are you enjoying it? This is a
:36:45. > :36:50.tough job, but I enjoy it. Sometimes.
:36:51. > :36:52.You are watching Sunday Politics. Coming up in just over 20 minutes,
:36:53. > :37:12.Diane Abbott will be joining us. Welcome to your local politics show.
:37:13. > :37:16.The Chancellor helps struggling high street shops, and relief for
:37:17. > :37:26.motorists and real travellers. But will that offset pressure on
:37:27. > :37:32.household budgets? In the studio, Conservative MP Robert Goodwill. And
:37:33. > :37:38.Labour MP for Sunderland Central, Julie Elliott. We start with
:37:39. > :37:46.reaction to the death of Nelson Mandela.
:37:47. > :37:59.We knew he would not live for ever. But when it happens, how will the
:38:00. > :38:03.world because this? `` greet. Then we see pictures from solar Africa,
:38:04. > :38:06.singing and dancing. A celebration of a life that has given us a
:38:07. > :38:15.picture of what a true human being could be life. `` like. Thank God we
:38:16. > :38:22.had this gentleman for the years since his release. We give thanks.
:38:23. > :38:31.In the end, for him, pain is no mirror. `` more. What impact did
:38:32. > :38:38.Nelson Mandela have on your decision to become politically active? Some
:38:39. > :38:41.of the first things I ever got involved in politically where the
:38:42. > :38:51.antiracism campaigns. He showed real leadership. One of those figures
:38:52. > :38:56.that you look up to and think, yes, politics is worth getting involved
:38:57. > :38:59.in. Presumably that is true of many of
:39:00. > :39:09.your colleagues? Yes. Cross`party. He showed that you
:39:10. > :39:15.can reach across political divides. Much larger ones than we have in
:39:16. > :39:21.this country. He faced an extraordinary situation
:39:22. > :39:24.in his life. Today's politicians face more mundane matters, can they
:39:25. > :39:32.learn from the way he dealt with rings?
:39:33. > :39:38.Having been treated so badly, having been in prison, he became the
:39:39. > :39:45.president of his country and then concentrated on building bridges,
:39:46. > :39:47.not fostering further conflict. We saw in Northern Ireland how that
:39:48. > :39:58.type of attitude delivered long`term use. In other countries, schools are
:39:59. > :40:02.being settled. `` scores. Chris Mullin was Minister for
:40:03. > :40:11.Africa. He has recalled when he met South African president.
:40:12. > :40:16.It was wonderfully uplifting occasion. He was pulling my leg
:40:17. > :40:21.about me being a representative of the British Empire! He had a nice
:40:22. > :40:31.sense of humour although they need serious points. `` he made. We
:40:32. > :40:40.talked about the AIDS crisis which remains very big in Africa. The
:40:41. > :40:46.situation in Zimbabwe. The Queen. Who's he got on very well with. He
:40:47. > :40:57.was often put through to Buckingham Palace directly. Elizabeth, how are
:40:58. > :41:03.you? It is Nelson the! Did you get the impression, this was a different
:41:04. > :41:11.type of leader? What marks am apart from other heads
:41:12. > :41:16.of state I have met is that he served 27 years in prison and
:41:17. > :41:26.emerged talking peace and reconciliation. Love of 1's enemies
:41:27. > :41:33.and so forth. And then he oversaw the transition from the apartheid
:41:34. > :41:41.regime, a brutal apartheid regime, to democracy and save Africa. `` in
:41:42. > :41:48.South Africa. Then he stood down after one term as president. And in
:41:49. > :41:52.Africa there is a great history of liberationists turning into
:41:53. > :41:59.presidents for life. There is a great example in Zimbabwe. So that
:42:00. > :42:02.made Nelson Mandela stand head and shoulders above not just other
:42:03. > :42:11.African statesman but around the world.
:42:12. > :42:18.What will his legacy be? To have overseen the transition from
:42:19. > :42:25.the uniquely brutal apartheid regime to democracy. Nobody could have had
:42:26. > :42:31.that. If we had sat here 25 years ago `` nobody could have protect
:42:32. > :42:38.that, and been told there would be a peaceful transition, people would
:42:39. > :42:47.have been very sceptical. He irradiated Goodwill and dignity. He
:42:48. > :42:53.was a great political figure of our lifetime and possibly the most
:42:54. > :42:58.respected man on the planet. To the Autumn statement. The
:42:59. > :43:02.Chancellor made clear that forecasts for economic growth are up whilst
:43:03. > :43:17.unemployment is falling. But is it being felt in Eagles pockets ahead
:43:18. > :43:20.of Christmas? `` people's. This butcher can carve out a living at
:43:21. > :43:26.this market but you would like business to be better.
:43:27. > :43:33.It is much quieter than last year. Not the same foot fall. But don't
:43:34. > :43:38.have the spending money any more. Electricity and gas is just too
:43:39. > :43:43.expensive really. It would be nice of the government did something
:43:44. > :43:49.about that. Shoppers do not feel better off than
:43:50. > :44:00.last Christmas. We are certainly not better off. It is optimistic to say
:44:01. > :44:06.things are getting better. Prices are going up but wages are not. My
:44:07. > :44:08.pension is the same but prices are going up. The same as everybody
:44:09. > :44:25.else. Broke. Until people here feel it in the pocket, they will not
:44:26. > :44:36.believe there is real growth. Personal circumstances are not
:44:37. > :44:40.improving. Concern is not confined to Carlisle of course. But people
:44:41. > :44:46.here mattered more than most, politically. The Conservative MP
:44:47. > :44:51.holds one of the most marginal constituencies in the country. There
:44:52. > :45:04.were people feel and vote could decide who runs the economy after
:45:05. > :45:07.2015. `` the way that. Scarcely surprising then that the Chancellor
:45:08. > :45:17.should drop the name of the city into the Autumn statement. The local
:45:18. > :45:23.MP is a leash. `` bullish. There is confidence things are getting
:45:24. > :45:31.better. Job creation, unemployment, back to levels last seen in 2008.
:45:32. > :45:42.The basics are in place. The city centre looks in reasonable health
:45:43. > :45:45.despite the odd S. `` blemish. The key is when people feel confident
:45:46. > :45:52.enough and have got jobs to spend money with. So job creation is the
:45:53. > :45:56.biggest sign of success in the economy. Not whether you are
:45:57. > :46:01.spending money. That will come as a result of job creation. Hopefully
:46:02. > :46:11.this time around will be less credit cards and more cash. Come Christmas
:46:12. > :46:17.2014 it could crucial. If the problem fades, it could be a cracker
:46:18. > :46:27.for the Conservatives. If not, 2015 good EA happy New Year for Labour.
:46:28. > :46:30.`` could be a. The labour charges that people are
:46:31. > :46:42.not feeling the benefit because of the cost of living. `` the Labour
:46:43. > :46:48.charge is that. We have been living beyond our means. Britain is to pay
:46:49. > :46:51.its way in the world... What does that have to do with rising bills
:46:52. > :47:01.and wages not going up. Economic growth should ineffectively would.
:47:02. > :47:07.`` should benefit everybody. We have made allowances. The price of fuel
:47:08. > :47:14.is 20p per litre or less than it would have had Labour plans gone
:47:15. > :47:17.through. We have reduced energy bills by switching subsidies away
:47:18. > :47:25.from the energy providers back to the Exchequer. And we have managed
:47:26. > :47:36.to freeze council tax in many parts of the country. It doubled and of
:47:37. > :47:40.labour. `` under. Cuts to business rates will help small countries ``
:47:41. > :47:48.companies, the government is doing something to help. It is doing a
:47:49. > :47:51.little, but not enough. I must challenge Robert assertion that fuel
:47:52. > :48:01.bills are being cut. They are higher than last winter. 3p in every litre
:48:02. > :48:09.since the government given to power. Not the magical figures that keep
:48:10. > :48:13.the imported. `` being quoted. You have identified a cost`of`living
:48:14. > :48:22.bobble but you don't have a solution. You cannot control prices.
:48:23. > :48:29.We could sort out the energy market and make costs transparent. We have
:48:30. > :48:36.promises on youth unemployment, to try to get people back into work.
:48:37. > :48:42.But actually you do not have any more answers than the coalition.
:48:43. > :48:49.They are at least lifting people out of tax and freezing council tax. We
:48:50. > :48:57.are saying that if they had not put VAT... But you cannot tackle the
:48:58. > :49:04.crisis anymore than the Conservatives Liberal Democrats.
:49:05. > :49:06.There is still incredibly high unemployment. High youth
:49:07. > :49:13.unemployment. The government done nothing to tackle it. We need to get
:49:14. > :49:17.people back into real jobs. A massive surge in part`time
:49:18. > :49:23.employment. Zero hours employment. People cannot plan or budget. The
:49:24. > :49:31.government are simply not doing anything to tackle those things. We
:49:32. > :49:37.held about creations of jobs but if those on low paid as evil contract,
:49:38. > :49:44.people will not feel any better. `` low paid or zero contract. JCB
:49:45. > :49:53.announced this weekend a big employment rights. We are seeing
:49:54. > :50:02.proper jobs in engineering and manufacturing. But they are still at
:50:03. > :50:08.low paid or zero hours. Some people like that, it fits in with their
:50:09. > :50:14.lifestyle. But we're getting back to proper jobs in manufacturing. Nissan
:50:15. > :50:19.are producing a car every 30 seconds in Sunderland. Weird again making
:50:20. > :50:30.things as a country. `` we are again. What more can you do?
:50:31. > :50:36.Anything that can be done to help, we do not argue against that. But
:50:37. > :50:40.some of the proposals are not coming in for a couple of years. Action is
:50:41. > :50:46.not being taken now to get young people back into work. We want them
:50:47. > :50:54.back into work now. Then they have the money to spend in the economy. I
:50:55. > :50:59.don't think Labour has explained properly how employers will suddenly
:51:00. > :51:09.be able to give young people jobs. It is being funded by a tax on
:51:10. > :51:14.bankers bonuses. But this is something down`the`line, in the
:51:15. > :51:18.future. We welcome anything that will help, but we need action now.
:51:19. > :51:24.There simply isn't anything happening at the moment to help
:51:25. > :51:31.people back into proper jobs. Yes, Nissan is a tremendous example, but
:51:32. > :51:41.we also lost jobs with in power. `` npower. So there have been losses as
:51:42. > :51:48.well as good news stories. Not enough now. Cuts in national
:51:49. > :51:57.insurance contributions are real incentives to get the bill employed.
:51:58. > :52:03.`` people. We can see how consistently wrong Ed Balls has been
:52:04. > :52:10.about everything. Remember plan B? They tried it in France. It is
:52:11. > :52:12.bitterly not working. Let's not give the keys back to the people who
:52:13. > :52:20.crashed the car last time. should it cost to call the local
:52:21. > :52:27.council? Some are using premium rate phone lines. With that story and the
:52:28. > :52:34.rest of the week's news, he is 60 seconds.
:52:35. > :52:38.Granted Davey has confirmed Northumberland council will change
:52:39. > :52:52.its policy after criticism of union rate contact numbers. `` premium. We
:52:53. > :52:58.will have ten local numbers. We are hoping to introduce a mobile number.
:52:59. > :53:04.So that people with pay`as`you`go contracts can make cheaper phone
:53:05. > :53:07.calls. There are plans in Cumbria to withdraw subsidies from loss`making
:53:08. > :53:22.bus routes to save ?2 million every year. At a local MP warned that some
:53:23. > :53:26.rural residents will be left out. And the exhibition of the
:53:27. > :53:31.Lindisfarne Gospels in Durham brought more than ?8 million of
:53:32. > :53:39.benefits to the region, attracting 100,000 people from 58 countries.
:53:40. > :53:49.Bosses now, and it is not as Cumbria, other local authorities are
:53:50. > :53:53.cutting back subsidies. `` buses. Can you explain why some rural
:53:54. > :54:00.people will no longer be able to get a bus out of the village? 45% of the
:54:01. > :54:07.failures come from subsidy. `` fares. That is because of a ground
:54:08. > :54:14.which is like a fuel subsidy. In addition, we have pensioners
:54:15. > :54:21.concessionary fare schemes. The problem is that this is a dead hand
:54:22. > :54:27.way of subsidising. It does not encourage environmentally friendly
:54:28. > :54:38.vehicles. It concentrates on city centres and not frugal areas. ``
:54:39. > :54:41.ruble. `` Rowell. The reality is that services are being cut which
:54:42. > :54:48.will affect the country certainly able with a poorer service. At the
:54:49. > :54:51.moment this is a blanket subsidy from services. That may mean a
:54:52. > :54:54.service that is running well does not media subsidy subsidies getting
:54:55. > :55:00.one. Whereas a ruler and service is being cut.
:55:01. > :55:10.This could be late for people that have lost their bosses. Local
:55:11. > :55:16.authorities are having a very difficult time. Having to make cuts
:55:17. > :55:25.for the reasons we just lead to. We have ruled the subsidies into the
:55:26. > :55:28.general and that councils get. In some cases, North Yorks Company at
:55:29. > :55:35.decided to cut services that are underused or bad sometimes weekend
:55:36. > :55:38.and evening services. Robert says councils across the North have to
:55:39. > :55:44.make difficult choices. There is a lot of money going in. They should
:55:45. > :55:50.think more intelligently about this. The cuts are quite dramatic and
:55:51. > :55:53.having impact across the piece. But in rural areas the service is
:55:54. > :56:03.absolutely crucial. How did people get to work? There should be some
:56:04. > :56:08.form of protection control. You would like less money spent
:56:09. > :56:17.subsidising buses in Oregon areas? `` urban. That doesn't happen
:56:18. > :56:22.because in the cities there are more people, they are used more often.
:56:23. > :56:26.Into line and were it has been put out to consultation and are still
:56:27. > :56:36.moving forward. `` in time and we are. `` Tyne Wear. That is
:56:37. > :56:47.something I particularly keen on. What is the answer for councils? The
:56:48. > :56:51.problem... The problem that councils face is that they have a number of
:56:52. > :56:54.responsibilities which are statutory. Education, social
:56:55. > :57:01.services, financing pensioners concessionary schemes. So it does
:57:02. > :57:08.mean that the discretionary amount that is left is under pressure. 45%
:57:09. > :57:19.of the money going into the gearbox is government subsidy. `` farebox.
:57:20. > :57:27.We need corporation with a bus companies. This is confrontation. It
:57:28. > :57:30.is not. It is about regulating the service and moderating profits. The
:57:31. > :57:36.companies are making very high profits. We would be happy with the
:57:37. > :57:45.London model. Equality contract of sorts, it works very well. The other
:57:46. > :57:48.big story of the week, the floods which have caused damage and
:57:49. > :57:56.disruption to communities across the North. Homes were evacuated after
:57:57. > :57:59.the Tees burst its banks. One of the worst affected areas was Whitby.
:58:00. > :58:06.Parts of the town centre were underwater. The harbour area was
:58:07. > :58:17.plunged into darkness. Power supplies failed. Are you satisfied
:58:18. > :58:23.that the way this was handled? We are very pleased that the Met Office
:58:24. > :58:27.and environment agency alerted the ball very well. There was no loss of
:58:28. > :58:33.life. The emergency services were exemplary. Even when the power went
:58:34. > :58:38.off they were able to help people. But they will be a long`term problem
:58:39. > :58:44.with the number of businesses affected. But in Scarborough and
:58:45. > :58:48.Whitby. Over the weekend I have been visiting a number that have been
:58:49. > :58:52.affected. I will make sure, as an MP, that if they have problems with
:58:53. > :59:01.insurance of compensation, that I can intercede. We keep hearing about
:59:02. > :59:14.these extreme weather events. Do we have to Jaaskelainen and bail them?
:59:15. > :59:21.`` do we have to just grin and bear it? The problem would have been
:59:22. > :59:28.worse had investment not when Anne. But we are not King Canute. This was
:59:29. > :59:32.an exceptionally high tide. A number of factors meant it was particularly
:59:33. > :59:36.high. A number of properties that could not defend the did get water
:59:37. > :59:40.damage and there would be a clean`up operation.
:59:41. > :59:52.That is all from us. It is getting close to Christmas. You will never
:59:53. > :59:55.get your presents wrapped and to give but if we are there to distract
:59:56. > :59:57.you so you're taking a break. We will be back
:59:58. > :00:22.Tomorrow, the House of Commons will pay its tributes to Nelson Mandela.
:00:23. > :00:41.Our nation has lost its greatest son. Our people have lost a father.
:00:42. > :00:49.The first thing I ever did that involved an issue or policy, or
:00:50. > :00:55.politics, was protest against apartheid.
:00:56. > :01:05.I think his greatest legacy, to South Africa and to the world, is
:01:06. > :01:16.the emphasis which he has always put on the need for a conciliation, on
:01:17. > :01:22.the importance of human rights. He also made us understand that we can
:01:23. > :01:25.change the world. We can change the world by changing attitudes, by
:01:26. > :01:31.changing perceptions. For this reason, I would like to pay him
:01:32. > :01:43.tribute as a great human being, who raised the standard of humanity.
:01:44. > :01:47.Thank you for the gift of Madiba. Thank you for what he has enabled us
:01:48. > :02:05.to know we can become. We are joined now by the Labour MP
:02:06. > :02:09.Diane Abbott. You met Mr Mandela not one after he was released from
:02:10. > :02:14.prison in 1990. He went as an election observer for the first one
:02:15. > :02:19.person, one-vote in South Africa. I would guess, of all the people you
:02:20. > :02:23.met in your life, you must have been the most impressive and biggest
:02:24. > :02:28.influence? He was extraordinary. He had just come out of prison, 28
:02:29. > :02:34.years in reason. He had seen a lot of his colleagues tortured, blown up
:02:35. > :02:37.and killed. He was entirely without bitterness. That is what came
:02:38. > :02:42.across. That was key to his achievement, to achieve a peaceful
:02:43. > :02:46.transition. Everybody thought that if you have black majority rule, you
:02:47. > :02:51.might have a bloodbath. It's down to Nelson Mandela but didn't happen. I
:02:52. > :02:58.remember FW de Klerk saying that Mandela was the key to getting a
:02:59. > :03:05.peaceful transition. Absolutely the key, an amazing man. London was one
:03:06. > :03:08.of the centres, people talked about it as being the other centre of the
:03:09. > :03:13.anti-apartheid struggle. That anti-apartheid struggle in London,
:03:14. > :03:18.it had an effect on black politics in Britain? Oh, yes. If you were
:03:19. > :03:23.black and politically active at the time, the apartheid struggle, the
:03:24. > :03:27.struggle against white supremacy in South Africa, was very important.
:03:28. > :03:33.Whatever your colour, the anti-apartheid struggle,
:03:34. > :03:36.Whatever your colour, the campaign. We have the 50th
:03:37. > :03:40.anniversary of Kennedy's assassination. Mr Mandela's death.
:03:41. > :03:44.We are kind of running out of people that inspired us? I will never
:03:45. > :03:49.forget where I was when I saw him come out of prison, hand-in-hand
:03:50. > :03:53.with the women, I might add. If you have spent your whole teenage years
:03:54. > :03:58.and 20 is boycotting, marching, picketing, to see him actually come
:03:59. > :04:06.out was amazing. Do you think it was more exciting to meet you or the
:04:07. > :04:13.Spice Girls? I think the Spice Girls. What did the Labour
:04:14. > :04:17.backbenchers think about Ed Balls's performance after the Autumn
:04:18. > :04:21.Statement? Luck, Ed Balls is a brilliant man, but I think even he
:04:22. > :04:25.would say that it was not his best performance. But if you look at the
:04:26. > :04:29.polls, the public liked the points he made. The backbenchers were
:04:30. > :04:36.quiet, there was something wrong? I noticed that. It was like a wall of
:04:37. > :04:39.sound, deliberately. They know that under pressure his stamina might
:04:40. > :04:44.come back and it is difficult for him. That is what they were trying
:04:45. > :04:48.to incite. I have had experience first hand, a look at all of these
:04:49. > :04:54.anonymous and sometimes not anonymous quotes in the media. The
:04:55. > :05:03.spinning has begun against him? This is the party of
:05:04. > :05:06.spinning has begun against him? This matter what the Tories say, we can
:05:07. > :05:12.say worse about each other. How could it be that two former aides to
:05:13. > :05:17.Gordon Brown do not like each other? Far be it from me to say. If he
:05:18. > :05:22.wanted to do it, and I'm not saying he does, is Mr Miliband ruthless
:05:23. > :05:26.enough to get rid of Ed Balls? I mean, he got rid of you, he got rid
:05:27. > :05:31.of his brother? One thing you should not do is under estimate Ed
:05:32. > :05:36.Miliband's capacity for ruthlessness. If he feels it is the
:05:37. > :05:40.right thing to do, he will do it. It's not just a matter of... Ed
:05:41. > :05:44.Balls is a big, powerful personality. He's great to interview
:05:45. > :05:48.because he is across his subject, you can have a really good argument
:05:49. > :05:53.with him, a man that knows his brief, his facts. But it's not just
:05:54. > :05:59.about the personality. There is a kind of sense that Labour needs to
:06:00. > :06:03.look forwards more on economic policy. Of course, the standard of
:06:04. > :06:08.living has been hugely successful for Labour. But it needs more than
:06:09. > :06:11.that on economic policy? I think he has been one of the most effective
:06:12. > :06:17.member 's Shadow Cabinet, and he's always associated with the Brown
:06:18. > :06:20.years, where there is always an element about, you were the guys
:06:21. > :06:25.that got it wrong. I think Ed Miliband will be very tempted to
:06:26. > :06:28.replace him with Alistair Darling. The scenario goes like this,
:06:29. > :06:31.Alistair Darling saves the union and then in September he saves the
:06:32. > :06:34.Labour Party. Ultimately, I don't think he would do it. Talk about
:06:35. > :06:38.shifting tectonic plates, think he would do it. Talk about
:06:39. > :06:44.wouldn't it? But it is a step too far. Ed Balls would not be too
:06:45. > :06:55.happy. It is not something you would want to do lightly. That sounds a
:06:56. > :06:59.bit of a threat. Not from you. I can't see Ed Balls magnanimously
:07:00. > :07:04.retreating and say, go on, Alistair Darling, take the job I have been
:07:05. > :07:07.after all career. Where do you put him? Do you make him a middle
:07:08. > :07:13.ranking business or welfare secretary? He wouldn't do that. If
:07:14. > :07:18.you sack him, he would retreat to the backbenchers. He might take up
:07:19. > :07:21.knitting and practices piano scales, or he might have a blood feud with
:07:22. > :07:28.Ed Miliband. I don't know which could be. You look back to when he
:07:29. > :07:31.was schools Secretary, you could feel he was constantly fuming. I
:07:32. > :07:35.think he is better inside the tent, looking out, than the other way
:07:36. > :07:38.around. The thing one Labour strategist said to me was that he is
:07:39. > :07:43.too much looking into the rear-view mirror, when it comes to economic
:07:44. > :07:49.policy. He needs to look ahead through the windscreen. That had
:07:50. > :07:53.some resonance? He was at the centre of Labour's economic policy-making
:07:54. > :07:58.from the mid-90s. So it's hard for him but he has to look forward.
:07:59. > :08:01.There is an interesting comparison with 2009. Gordon Brown got in
:08:02. > :08:05.trouble when he said the choice is between Labour investment and Tory
:08:06. > :08:09.cuts. Everybody knew it was between Labour cuts and Tory cuts. In other
:08:10. > :08:13.words, he was not acknowledging reality. With Ed Balls, OK, we can
:08:14. > :08:17.say it is the wrong sort of recovery, but there is a recovery.
:08:18. > :08:20.Does he not need to absorb that punch and say there is a recovery,
:08:21. > :08:26.then people will listen to him? Possibly. We know that the
:08:27. > :08:31.macroeconomics are looking better. We also know people are not
:08:32. > :08:36.experiencing it as a recovery in living standards. No one, not even
:08:37. > :08:40.Tories, really believe that David Cameron knows what it is like for
:08:41. > :08:44.middle-income people to live normal lives. Living standards is
:08:45. > :08:47.particularly powerful because of the composition of the government? Don't
:08:48. > :08:52.go away. This time last year we ambushed our political panel with a
:08:53. > :08:56.quiz. They didn't come out of it smelling of roses, but they did come
:08:57. > :09:02.out rather smelly. Will the coalition still be in place
:09:03. > :09:09.a year from now? Yes. Definitely. I say definitely as well. From now,
:09:10. > :09:16.one year, will we know the date of the European referendum? Yes. No. I
:09:17. > :09:23.say no as well. How much growth will there be? Less than 1%. Father
:09:24. > :09:30.Christmas is less qualified than me, but I will go for one. I will go for
:09:31. > :09:37.a quarter of that. 0.4%. Sorry, a third of that. I am with you, and
:09:38. > :09:42.1%. We didn't do too badly. What will growth be next year? I will
:09:43. > :09:46.remind you, the OBR has upgraded to 2.4%. Better stick with the OBR, got
:09:47. > :09:55.it wrong last year. Well, they went down in March and then went back in
:09:56. > :09:58.December. I'm going to go under and claim credit where it's higher. I'm
:09:59. > :10:04.going to say 1%. Deliberately get it wrong. Given our record, if we say
:10:05. > :10:08.there is going to be spectacular growth, does it mean we're going to
:10:09. > :10:15.go into recession? There is incentive to be cautious. 2%. 2.4%,
:10:16. > :10:22.because the housing market in London is rocketing. It would be closer to
:10:23. > :10:30.3% and 2.4, mark my words. We'll Ed Balls be Shadow Chancellor by this
:10:31. > :10:37.time next year? Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes, I value my life. Will UKIP mean the
:10:38. > :10:44.European elections, by which I mean have the highest percentage of the
:10:45. > :10:50.vote? Yes. Second behind Labour. Second behind Labour. Will Alex
:10:51. > :10:57.Salmond win the independence referendum? No, but it will be
:10:58. > :11:00.closer than we think. No, unless they do something catastrophic like
:11:01. > :11:08.let Cameron debate him. Too close to call. Controversial. How many
:11:09. > :11:17.Romanians and Bulgarians will come to Britain in 2014? Far fewer than
:11:18. > :11:21.anyone thinks. The entire population of Romania and Bulgaria, like Nigel
:11:22. > :11:26.Farage thanks. I'll go with that, I'm confident.
:11:27. > :11:27.Farage thanks. I'll go with that, your magazine. Not
:11:28. > :11:31.Farage thanks. I'll go with that, but a lot here already will
:11:32. > :11:37.normalise and be counted into figures. Too many for most
:11:38. > :11:41.right-wing commentators. I think quite a few will come, but not the
:11:42. > :11:51.kind of numbers that made such a huge difference. This time,
:11:52. > :11:55.everybody is open. They do like to speak English, that is the reason
:11:56. > :12:01.they want to come. We'll all three of you still be here by this time
:12:02. > :12:08.next year? Yes. Would you recommend that? Yes, keep them. And he has
:12:09. > :12:15.lovely boots. Shiny red boots. If you can keep affording me, I will be
:12:16. > :12:21.here. I hope so, it sounds like you have a firing squad outside. I hope
:12:22. > :12:29.so, maybe you will find some true talent. Very pragmatic, aren't they?
:12:30. > :12:33.Let me put this to you, I think you will agree. The coalition will not
:12:34. > :12:39.break now, this side of the election next year? There will not be... They
:12:40. > :12:46.will not go their own ways by this time next year? Of next year, maybe
:12:47. > :12:52.just after. Early 2015. This side of the election? What is the UKIP view?
:12:53. > :12:58.I don't think there is an advantage to either of them. If the Lib Dems
:12:59. > :12:59.pulled out, they would look like there were a lodger in the Tory
:13:00. > :13:03.house of government. there were a lodger in the Tory
:13:04. > :13:07.would suit the Lib Dems to break just before the election. I think
:13:08. > :13:11.that is what Vince Cable wants to do. I don't think it is what Nick
:13:12. > :13:18.Clegg would like to do. The Tories would love it. They would have all
:13:19. > :13:20.of the toys to themselves. Yellow marker they would look like the
:13:21. > :13:24.grown-ups. The problem for Vince Cable is that he's not the force
:13:25. > :13:28.that used to be after his temper tantrum at the Conference.
:13:29. > :13:36.I will be back with the Daily Politics next week. If Santer gives
:13:37. > :13:42.you a diary in your stocking, pencil in Sunday the 20th of January, the
:13:43. > :13:48.first Sunday Politics of 2014. Remember, if it is Sunday, it is the
:13:49. > :13:51.Sunday Politics. Unless it is Christmas. And New Year.