:00:37. > :00:43.Good morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. It would be
:00:44. > :00:46.extremely difficult, if not impossible, for an independent
:00:47. > :00:50.Scotland to join the European Union, so says the President of the
:00:51. > :00:55.European Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso, in a significant
:00:56. > :00:59.debate. It's our top story. He has debate. It's our top story. He has
:01:00. > :01:08.the power to bring travel chaos to the nation's capital. Bob Crow
:01:09. > :01:10.joined us for the Sunday interview. Another
:01:11. > :01:20.close to expectant mums. And cupid's arrow hits Carlisle as the Cumbrian
:01:21. > :01:21.close to expectant mums. And cupid's look at his decisions and priorities
:01:22. > :01:40.with the help of his chief of staff. With me, the best and brightest
:01:41. > :01:43.political panel in the business The twits will be as incessant and
:01:44. > :01:47.probably as welcome as the recent rain. A significant new development
:01:48. > :01:49.in the debate over Scottish independence this morning, the
:01:50. > :01:55.President of the European Commission, President Jose Manuel
:01:56. > :01:58.Barroso, has confirmed what the Nationalists have long denied, that
:01:59. > :02:01.an independent Scotland would have to reply to join the European Union
:02:02. > :02:06.as a new member, that it would require the agreement of all 28
:02:07. > :02:10.member states and that would be in his words, extremely difficult, if
:02:11. > :02:14.not impossible. In case there is a new country, a new state coming out
:02:15. > :02:20.of a current member state, it will have to apply and, this is very
:02:21. > :02:24.important, the application to the union would have to be approved by
:02:25. > :02:31.all of the other member states. Countries like Spain, with the
:02:32. > :02:36.secessionist issues they have? I don't want to interfere in your
:02:37. > :02:39.democratic discussion here, but of course, it will be extremely
:02:40. > :02:44.difficult to get the approval of all of the other member states, to have
:02:45. > :02:52.a new member coming in from one member state. We have seen that that
:02:53. > :02:57.Spain has been opposing even the recognition, for instance, so it is
:02:58. > :02:59.a similar state. It is a new country. I believe it is great to be
:03:00. > :03:07.externally difficult, if not impossible. Well, he says he doesn't
:03:08. > :03:10.want to interfere, but he has just dropped a medium-sized explosive
:03:11. > :03:13.into the debate on Scottish independence? A huge story. Alex
:03:14. > :03:18.Salmond must be wondering what is going to go wrong next. His pitch to
:03:19. > :03:21.the Scottish people is based on two things, the currency union with
:03:22. > :03:28.England and the rest of the United Kingdom, which was blown apart last
:03:29. > :03:40.week, and this morning, his claims that Scotland would automatically
:03:41. > :03:46.get into the European Union has been dynamited. He's not only saying that
:03:47. > :03:53.they would have to apply, it is also saying it might be impossible to get
:03:54. > :03:57.the agreement of all 28 members to allow Scotland in. That's even more
:03:58. > :04:02.significant than the application? The reference to Spain is
:04:03. > :04:06.interesting, we talk about Catalan independence, an economic and active
:04:07. > :04:10.area that Spain does not want to be independent. About five other
:04:11. > :04:14.countries are blocking Kosovo's accession to the EU. There is no
:04:15. > :04:20.reason they would want to encourage the secessionist in their country by
:04:21. > :04:23.letting Scotland do the same. If Scotland does have to apply, and it
:04:24. > :04:30.does get in, it solves the currency problem because all new members have
:04:31. > :04:32.to accept the Euro? At the moment, the SNP are rejecting that quite
:04:33. > :04:38.strongly. What an interesting intervention today. However, I know
:04:39. > :04:44.that those arguing that Scotland should stay in the union are worried
:04:45. > :04:50.that the polls are tightening. A lot of these interventions, parents care
:04:51. > :04:56.arguments, they don't look like they are convincing the Scottish people.
:04:57. > :05:00.We haven't had any polls yet? We haven't, but we have since the
:05:01. > :05:05.currency debate was reignited in the last few weeks and it shows the
:05:06. > :05:08.polls tightening slightly. I think Alistair Darling's campaign would
:05:09. > :05:11.prefer to be much further ahead at the stage. They are worried that
:05:12. > :05:15.these technical commandments are not having much sway. Are the polls
:05:16. > :05:22.tightening slightly? They could be within the statistical margin for
:05:23. > :05:27.error. They are, but not much. Alex Salmond's main page is one of
:05:28. > :05:29.reassurance. He wants to say you can vote for independence, a pound in
:05:30. > :05:33.the pocket will be the same as before and you will still be a
:05:34. > :05:38.member of the European Union. In the last three or four matter days, both
:05:39. > :05:45.of those claims have been blown apart. Angus MacNeil has already
:05:46. > :05:49.told BBC Radio 5 Live that the remarks are nonsense and he is
:05:50. > :05:53.playing more politics. We hope to speak to the SNP's finance minister,
:05:54. > :05:58.John Swinney, a little bit later in the programme. It is not just the
:05:59. > :06:00.constant rain that London commuters have had to deal with. There was
:06:01. > :06:06.also a strike on the tube that disrupted the travel of millions. A
:06:07. > :06:08.second stoppage was on the cards, but it was called off at the last
:06:09. > :06:13.minute. The leader of the biggest
:06:14. > :06:18.underground workers union, the RMT, is Bob Crow, who has led his members
:06:19. > :06:22.into 24 strikes on the tube since 2005, as well as disputes on the
:06:23. > :06:27.national rail network. Under his leadership, the union's membership
:06:28. > :06:30.has grown from 57,000 in 2002 to more than 80,000, at a time when
:06:31. > :06:35.union membership overall has been shrinking. The current dispute has
:06:36. > :06:39.seen Bob Crow squaring up to Boris Johnson over the mayor's plans to
:06:40. > :06:42.close tube station ticket offices. The 48-hour stoppage at the
:06:43. > :06:47.beginning of this month is estimated to have cost the London economy ?100
:06:48. > :06:52.million. The two sides have agreed a truce, for now, but Mr Crow has
:06:53. > :06:56.threatened further action if the mayor imposes his changes.
:06:57. > :07:05.Bob Crow joins me now for the Sunday interview.
:07:06. > :07:12.Welcome to the Sunday Politics. You have suspended the strike for the
:07:13. > :07:17.moment. What will it take to call it off entirely? Want to know first of
:07:18. > :07:20.all wider booking office has to close. The Mayor of London made it
:07:21. > :07:24.quite clear in his election programme that the booking offices
:07:25. > :07:27.would remain open. It was strange, really, because Ken Livingstone
:07:28. > :07:30.wanted to close them down and the mayor thought it was popular to keep
:07:31. > :07:36.them open and put in his campaign to keep them open. However, we have not
:07:37. > :07:40.the news figures. We are being told only 3% of people use the booking
:07:41. > :07:43.offices. That's not true. In research done, if somebody does to a
:07:44. > :07:47.booking office with somebody sitting there and asks for a ticket of less
:07:48. > :07:53.than ?5, they are not allowed to sell them a ticket, it is madness.
:07:54. > :07:59.Do you use the ticket office? When it is open, yes. You said to ITV
:08:00. > :08:03.that he didn't. I don't know what I said to ITV, I don't know what time
:08:04. > :08:06.people use them, sometimes they are open and sometimes they are closed.
:08:07. > :08:10.People make out that these ticket office staff are people that sit
:08:11. > :08:14.behind barriers like a newsagent. I'm not knocking a newsagent,
:08:15. > :08:20.however, these people were the same people treated like Lions when they
:08:21. > :08:25.were helping people named in the terrorist incidents, taking them out
:08:26. > :08:29.of the panels. Suddenly they are lazy people that sit in ticket
:08:30. > :08:34.offices. My understanding is that the people would come from behind
:08:35. > :08:37.and be out and about now. It is the management wants to run the
:08:38. > :08:42.underground without ticket offices, isn't that their prerogative? They
:08:43. > :08:49.are paid to manage, not you, not your members, they are the managers?
:08:50. > :08:51.Managers are there to manage, and we want good managers. But we've got
:08:52. > :08:54.some really bad managers that are not looking at the railway as a
:08:55. > :08:57.whole. This is a successful industry, not an industry in
:08:58. > :09:01.decline, one of the most successful in Britain. It is moving 3.4 million
:09:02. > :09:06.people a day. All of the forecast is or it will move to 3.6 million per
:09:07. > :09:10.day. The mayor wants to run services on a Friday and Saturday night. We
:09:11. > :09:13.are not opposed to that. However, it does not make sense that if more
:09:14. > :09:18.people are going to be using the tube on Friday and Saturday, coming
:09:19. > :09:21.home at two o'clock three o'clock in the morning, a lot of people
:09:22. > :09:28.drinking, a lot of people not dragging, why take 1000 people of
:09:29. > :09:32.the network that come to the aid of people that are looking to people? I
:09:33. > :09:40.want to show you this picture. This is you. Taking a break in Brazil, I
:09:41. > :09:44.think it is. I was trying to copy you. You deserve this break because
:09:45. > :09:49.you have done a fantastic job for your members. Yes, I don't see what
:09:50. > :09:52.that has got to do with it. Let s get every editor of the daily
:09:53. > :09:56.newspapers and see where they go on their holidays, I would like to
:09:57. > :10:01.know. What I choose to do... I'm not attacking you for doing that...
:10:02. > :10:04.You've got a picture up there, I've got to say, why don't they go and
:10:05. > :10:09.follow Boris Johnson when he was away on holiday, when the riots were
:10:10. > :10:12.taking place in London, and he refused to come back? Why don't they
:10:13. > :10:16.go and view the editors of newspapers, where they go on
:10:17. > :10:20.holiday? Why do they look at you when you go on holiday? They
:10:21. > :10:26.sometimes do, actually. The basic pay of a tube driver will soon be
:10:27. > :10:31.?52,000. Ticket office workers are already earning over ?35,000. Never
:10:32. > :10:34.mind a holiday on Copacabana beach, or membership by your house for what
:10:35. > :10:38.you have done for them? When you look at the papers this morning I
:10:39. > :10:42.see that Wayne Rooney is going to get a ?70 million deal over the next
:10:43. > :10:50.four deals. I see NHS doctors are getting ?3000 a shift. I see a lot
:10:51. > :10:54.of people that do a lot of people that, in my opinion, don't do
:10:55. > :10:57.anything for society. The top paid people in this country should be
:10:58. > :11:01.doctors and nurses. Unfortunately, we live in a jungle. If you are not
:11:02. > :11:05.strong, the bosses will walk all over you. The reason why we got good
:11:06. > :11:10.terms and conditions is because we fought for them. The reality is all
:11:11. > :11:14.of these three political parties, liberals, Tories and Labour, they
:11:15. > :11:18.have all put no programme that to defend working people. So we have to
:11:19. > :11:21.do it on our own. And that is why you have done such a great job for
:11:22. > :11:24.your members and why union membership has been rising, people
:11:25. > :11:29.want to be part of a successful operation. But it has come at a cost
:11:30. > :11:35.for less well-paid workers, who travel on the cheap? If everyone
:11:36. > :11:38.believes if London Underground tube workers take a pay freeze they are
:11:39. > :11:41.going to redistribute the money to the rest of the workers that work on
:11:42. > :11:46.the cheap... But the people that travel on the tube, let's look at
:11:47. > :11:52.some of them, they are the ones that suffer from your strike action. The
:11:53. > :11:56.starting salary of a cheap driver now, ?48,000. The starting salary
:11:57. > :12:02.for a nurses only ?26,000, ?22, 00 for a young policeman, ?27,000 for a
:12:03. > :12:09.teacher starting out. As your members have spread, they have had
:12:10. > :12:16.to live through 24 strikes in 1 years to push up your members
:12:17. > :12:22.wages. It's I'm all right Jack? The have put a pay freeze on by
:12:23. > :12:25.conservatives and liberals. The police constables, so have the
:12:26. > :12:30.teachers. We have had the ability to go and fight. The reality is, at the
:12:31. > :12:35.end of the day, as I have said before, no one is going to put up
:12:36. > :12:40.the cause for workers. Not one single party in parliament are
:12:41. > :12:42.fighting the cause for workers. They all support privatisation, they all
:12:43. > :12:47.support keeping the anti-trade union laws, they all support illegal wars
:12:48. > :12:51.around the world. Unless they have a fighting trade union, our members
:12:52. > :12:55.pay would be as low as some others. You said we could not care less if
:12:56. > :12:59.we have 1 million strikes. But these people, the lower paid people who
:13:00. > :13:05.travel on the tube, who need it as an essential service, they care Of
:13:06. > :13:09.course they care, I've said before that I apologise to the troubling
:13:10. > :13:17.public for the dispute that took place. 24 strikes in 13 years? It
:13:18. > :13:21.two to tango. If the boy never imposed terms and conditions on us
:13:22. > :13:25.against our will... But you've got great terms and conditions! But it's
:13:26. > :13:32.a constant battle, they are trying to change them. Drivers are having
:13:33. > :13:36.their pay going up to ?50,000. You said they are making it worse, it is
:13:37. > :13:39.going up. They are trying to make things worse for workers. You said
:13:40. > :13:44.at the start of the interview that the tube strike cost ?100 million in
:13:45. > :13:48.two days. It means that when members go to work for two days it is worth
:13:49. > :13:53.?100 million. That demonstrates what they are worth. Only a fighting
:13:54. > :13:57.trade union can defend workers out there. Your members should enjoy
:13:58. > :14:02.what you have got for them, because it's not going to last, is it?
:14:03. > :14:07.Technology will change the whole way your business operates. As Karl Marx
:14:08. > :14:11.says, you said I was a mixture of Karl Marx, Only Fools And Horses and
:14:12. > :14:15.the Sopranos. I thought that was quite funny... The Karl Marx part of
:14:16. > :14:23.it, the only thing that is constant is change. We have been crying out
:14:24. > :14:28.for new technology. But for who To put people on the dole, so they
:14:29. > :14:31.can't do anything and do anything for society, or technology so
:14:32. > :14:36.everybody benefits, lower fares better service and better terms and
:14:37. > :14:38.conditions for the workers. But you have made Labour so expensive on the
:14:39. > :14:43.underground that management now has a huge incentive to substitute
:14:44. > :14:48.technology for Labour. And that s what it's going to do, it is closing
:14:49. > :14:53.the ticket offices and very soon, starting in 2016, the driverless
:14:54. > :15:02.trains coming. What I am saying is that your members should enjoy this
:15:03. > :15:12.because it's not going to last. Driverless trains are not coming
:15:13. > :15:18.in, it is not safe. We have them in Nuremberg, Shanghai, Sao Paulo, it
:15:19. > :15:23.is not safe? These are new lines that have been built so that when it
:15:24. > :15:27.breaks down, people can get out of the tunnel. Would you want to be
:15:28. > :15:34.stuck on a summers day on the Northern line? A pregnant woman who
:15:35. > :15:39.cannot get off the train? Absolute panic that takes place, the reality
:15:40. > :15:44.is simple, it is a nonsense. It s not going to happen because it is a
:15:45. > :15:53.Victorian network. On Docklands railway for example it is driverless
:15:54. > :15:59.but when the train breaks down, it is above ground on a very small
:16:00. > :16:05.section. All of these other cities managed to have it. You remind me
:16:06. > :16:20.about Henry Ford in the 1930s when he said, you see that robot over
:16:21. > :16:25.their, he cannot buy a car. All sorts of new jobs are being created
:16:26. > :16:31.all the time in other areas. Come back to the ticket offices, not many
:16:32. > :16:36.people use the ticket offices any more, what is wrong with getting the
:16:37. > :16:40.stuff out of the ticket office on to the concourses, meeting and
:16:41. > :16:46.greeting, helping disabled people and tourists and making it a better
:16:47. > :16:51.service? They can do more on the concourse than they can in the
:16:52. > :16:58.ticket office. Andrew, he took the decision to close down every single
:16:59. > :17:05.ticket office. You cannot compare for example Chesham with the likes
:17:06. > :17:11.of Heathrow. Are you telling me people are going to be on a long
:17:12. > :17:16.transatlantic flight, arrived at Heathrow and cannot get a ticket.
:17:17. > :17:22.The stuff will be redeployed on the concourse. The simple problem is
:17:23. > :17:29.that it is not just about the booking office, it is about people
:17:30. > :17:33.having a visual. If you are partially sighted, you cannot use
:17:34. > :17:41.the machines. If British is not your first language, you cannot use the
:17:42. > :17:50.offices. How many languages do your members speak? I don't know, I
:17:51. > :17:56.struggle with English. The machines can speak many different languages.
:17:57. > :18:03.They are dehumanising things. You phone the bank, all you hear is
:18:04. > :18:07.press one for this, two for that. People want to hear it human being
:18:08. > :18:14.and what makes the London Underground so precious is that
:18:15. > :18:19.people want to see people. Having well-dressed, motivated people out
:18:20. > :18:23.on the concourse, what part of that don't you like? They will be on the
:18:24. > :18:28.concourse and they will have machines. The fact is that London
:18:29. > :18:31.Underground did a risk assessment of closing down their booking offices
:18:32. > :18:35.and it is clear that if you are disabled, if you are partially
:18:36. > :18:42.sighted, London Underground becomes more dangerous. You are posing the
:18:43. > :18:51.closing of ticket offices, opposing driverless trains, when you opposed
:18:52. > :19:06.to the Oyster card when it came in? No, Oyster cards, it is how you deal
:19:07. > :19:11.with it. It is not the only way They should supplement the staff and
:19:12. > :19:17.the job. If more people used the London Underground system, you want
:19:18. > :19:24.more staff to deal with them. Let's look at your mandate to strike. Of
:19:25. > :19:33.your members who work on the Tube, only 40% bothered to vote. Only 30%
:19:34. > :19:38.voted for the strike, so 70% actually didn't vote to strike of
:19:39. > :19:44.your members, but the strike went ahead. Isn't it right to have a
:19:45. > :19:49.higher threshold before you can cause this disruption? It would be
:19:50. > :19:55.lovely if everyone voted but the Tories took that away. We used to
:19:56. > :20:00.have ballots at the workplace. What I'm trying to say to you is that we
:20:01. > :20:07.used to have a ballot box at the workplace and the turnouts were
:20:08. > :20:13.higher. The Tories believe that if they can have a secret ballot where
:20:14. > :20:18.ballot papers went to people's home addresses, where they could be
:20:19. > :20:22.persuaded by the bosses, votes would be different. Let's go back to the
:20:23. > :20:30.workplace ballot because you get a bigger turnout. Will the RMT
:20:31. > :20:35.re-affiliate to the Labour Party? I have no intention to. We got
:20:36. > :20:43.expelled from the Labour Party. But you will give some money to the
:20:44. > :20:53.Labour councils? Those that support our basic policies get money, we
:20:54. > :20:57.don't give money directly to MPs, we give it to constituencies. Are you
:20:58. > :21:07.going to stand for re-election in 2016? I might do, I might not. You
:21:08. > :21:15.haven't decided yet? No, but more than likely I will do. And will you
:21:16. > :21:21.stand again as an anti-EU candidate? Yes, I am standing in London, and
:21:22. > :21:27.right across, completely different to UKIP's policies. They are
:21:28. > :21:33.anti-European, they believe all of the faults of Europe are down to the
:21:34. > :21:39.immigrants. We are anti-European Union. If London Underground is as
:21:40. > :21:46.badly run as you think, why don t you run for mayor? That is down the
:21:47. > :21:51.road, it has not come up yet. I m not ruling anything out. I'm not
:21:52. > :21:57.ruling out getting your job on the Sunday Politics. You have got to
:21:58. > :22:04.retire as well, you have got to put your feet up. I will get you to
:22:05. > :22:09.renegotiate my package. Shall we go on strike first? If I could have
:22:10. > :22:20.your wages, I would have two trips to Rio every year. Good luck. And if
:22:21. > :22:27.you're in the London region they'll have more on the Tube strike later
:22:28. > :22:33.in the programme. Let's get back to those comments from Jose Manuel
:22:34. > :22:39.Barroso, and reaction to these comments from John Swinney. Scottish
:22:40. > :22:45.Nationalists denied all along you would have to reapply, we have now
:22:46. > :22:51.heard it without any caveats, you will and you might not get in. I
:22:52. > :22:59.think Jose Manuel Barroso's comments were preposterous this morning. He
:23:00. > :23:05.compared the situation to the one in Kosovo. Britain is the member,
:23:06. > :23:11.Scotland is not the member. If you go independent, you will have to
:23:12. > :23:15.reapply, he says. All of the arrangements we have in place are
:23:16. > :23:19.compatible with the workings of the European Union because we have been
:23:20. > :23:26.part of it for 40 years. The propositions we put forward work
:23:27. > :23:29.about essentially negotiating the continuity of Scotland's membership
:23:30. > :23:35.of the European Union and that position has now been explained and
:23:36. > :23:48.debated and discussed and reinforced by comments made by experts. We are
:23:49. > :23:51.talking about the president of the European commission and we have
:23:52. > :23:56.spoken to him since he gave that interview on the BBC this morning,
:23:57. > :24:05.it was an intervention that he made that he wanted to lay out that
:24:06. > :24:13.Scotland should be in no doubt that if they vote for independence they
:24:14. > :24:17.will have to apply for European membership and they may not get it
:24:18. > :24:22.if it is vetoed by other members. What he didn't say is that no state
:24:23. > :24:28.of the European Union have indicated they would veto Scottish
:24:29. > :24:34.membership. The Spanish foreign minister has. They have said that if
:24:35. > :24:37.there is an agreed process within the UK that Scotland becomes an
:24:38. > :24:42.independent country, then Spain has got nothing to say about the issue.
:24:43. > :24:47.That indicates to me clearly that the Spanish government will have no
:24:48. > :24:51.stance to take on the Scottish membership of the European Union
:24:52. > :24:55.because it is important that Scotland is already part of the
:24:56. > :25:01.European Union, our laws are compatible with the European Union
:25:02. > :25:05.and we play our part. The only threat to Scotland's participation
:25:06. > :25:16.in the European Union is the potential in/out referendum that
:25:17. > :25:21.David Cameron wants to have in 017. It has not been a great week for
:25:22. > :25:27.you, has it? Everything you seem to want, the monetary union, that has
:25:28. > :25:31.been blown out of the water by the Westminster parties, now Jose Manuel
:25:32. > :25:38.Barroso has said you will have to reapply to the European Union, it
:25:39. > :25:44.has not been a good week. You will follow the debate closely, and the
:25:45. > :25:48.Sunday newspapers are full about the backlash taking place within
:25:49. > :25:57.Scotland at the bullying remarks of the Chancellor and his cohorts. Is
:25:58. > :26:00.Jose Manuel Barroso a bully is well now? He is making an indirect
:26:01. > :26:08.comparison between Scotland and Kosovo. If you vote for independence
:26:09. > :26:14.and you do have two apply again to join, if you do get in it solves
:26:15. > :26:20.your currency problem because you will have to accept the euro. We
:26:21. > :26:28.have set out an option on the currency arrangements which would be
:26:29. > :26:35.to establish the currency union You would have to adopt the euro. That's
:26:36. > :26:39.not rate because you have to be part of the exchange-rate mechanism for
:26:40. > :26:42.two years before you can apply for membership and an independent
:26:43. > :26:48.Scotland has no intention of signing up to the exchange rate mechanism or
:26:49. > :26:52.the single currency. We are concentrating on setting out our
:26:53. > :26:58.arguments for maintaining the pound sterling, which is in the interests
:26:59. > :27:04.of Scotland and the UK. Thank you for joining us this morning.
:27:05. > :27:07.This week's least surprising news was that Labour won the safe seat of
:27:08. > :27:10.Wythenshawe and Sale East in a by-election, following the death of
:27:11. > :27:14.the MP Paul Goggins. With the result so predictable, all eyes were on
:27:15. > :27:17.whether this would be the sixth time this parliament that UKIP would come
:27:18. > :27:20.second. And whether they'd chip away at Labour's vote, not just the
:27:21. > :27:31.Tories and the Lib Dems. Adam stayed up all night to find out what it all
:27:32. > :27:41.meant. Forget the hype. Forget the theorising. And yes - everyone has a
:27:42. > :27:48.theory. UKIP are learning from us. What have they picked up from you?
:27:49. > :27:51.To be silly. Thanks to this week's by-election we've got some hard
:27:52. > :27:54.evidence in paper form that helps answer the question: How are UKIP
:27:55. > :28:04.doing? Turns out the answer is well, but not well enough to beat Labour.
:28:05. > :28:10.I'm therefore claim -- declare that Mike Cane is elected. So UKIP have
:28:11. > :28:13.come second and increased their share of the vote quite
:28:14. > :28:16.significantly. But their performance isn't as good as their performances
:28:17. > :28:18.in some of the other by-elections this parliament. Just don't suggest
:28:19. > :28:29.to them that their bandwagon has ground to a halt. A week ago you'd
:28:30. > :28:38.told me you were going to win, what happened? No, I didn't, I said I
:28:39. > :28:42.wanted to win. My mistake. How are you feeling? It is a Labour
:28:43. > :28:49.stronghold, we always knew it was going to be a fight. Labour were
:28:50. > :28:53.running scared of letting us present our arguments. UKIP's campaign in
:28:54. > :28:56.Wythenshawe didn't point to the right but to the left, with leaflets
:28:57. > :29:00.that branded Labour as a party of millionaires who didn't care about
:29:01. > :29:03.the working class. It wasn't a winning strategy but it did help
:29:04. > :29:08.them beat the Tories who focused on dog mess and potholes instead.
:29:09. > :29:14.Professional UKIP-watcher Rob Ford from Manchester Uni thinks they
:29:15. > :29:17.could be on the right track. He s analysed the views of 5,000 UKIP
:29:18. > :29:29.voters for a new book, which could confound the received wisdom about
:29:30. > :29:36.the party. The common media image of the typical UKIP voter is a ruddy
:29:37. > :29:41.faced golf club and -- member from the south-east of the UK and many
:29:42. > :29:46.UKIP activists do resemble that stereotype to some extent, they do
:29:47. > :29:50.pick up a lot of activists from the Conservative party, but UKIP voters
:29:51. > :29:56.are older, more working class, more likely to live in Northern, urban
:29:57. > :30:00.areas, and they are much more anti-system than anti-EU. And
:30:01. > :30:03.they're precisely the voters that the Tory MP David Mowat needs if
:30:04. > :30:16.he's to hold on to his narrow majority in the constituency just
:30:17. > :30:20.down the road. Do you have a UKIP strategy in your seat? Our UKIP
:30:21. > :30:23.strategy is to point out that if they want a referendum on if they
:30:24. > :30:26.want to be in the EU or not, there is one way to get it, for the
:30:27. > :30:32.Conservatives to form their next government and for me to be their
:30:33. > :30:39.MP. UKIP could accidentally destroy what they want? I'm not sure it will
:30:40. > :30:42.be accidental. People need to realise that if Ed Miliband is the
:30:43. > :30:47.Prime Minister, there will be no referendum on the EU and UKIP may
:30:48. > :30:55.have made their point but they would not have got their referendum. Over
:30:56. > :31:02.at UKIP local HQ, it is tidying up time. Not helping, Nigel? I had
:31:03. > :31:06.major surgery on the 19th of November and I am still weak as a
:31:07. > :31:10.kitten. I can barely lift a pint with my right hand, it is as serious
:31:11. > :31:15.as that. The answer is, Carreon chaps, you're all doing a very good
:31:16. > :31:19.job. There will be carrying on to the European elections in May, which
:31:20. > :31:25.will provide more evidence of if the UKIP and wagon is powering on or if
:31:26. > :31:30.it is just parked. -- bandwagon With me now is the Conservative MEP
:31:31. > :31:34.Vicky fraud and UKIP director of medication is Patrick O'Flynn. He
:31:35. > :31:37.will also be a candidate in the upcoming European elections. You
:31:38. > :31:44.came second in Manchester, but it was not a close second. -- Vicky
:31:45. > :31:49.Ford. There is nothing that is a game changer? I think it is very
:31:50. > :31:53.unusual for any insurgent party like the liberals used to be, to
:31:54. > :32:04.actually win a safe seat of the opposition. Those shocks, going back
:32:05. > :32:09.to Walkington etc, it tended to be winning seats against an unpopular
:32:10. > :32:12.government. We did extraordinarily well in Wythenshawe. Labour
:32:13. > :32:15.compressed the campaign down to the shortest possible time and maxed out
:32:16. > :32:20.the postal vote. Whatever we think about Labour, they do have an
:32:21. > :32:25.efficient machine, lots of union activists signed a lot of people
:32:26. > :32:29.with a lot of know-how. It pushed you into third place and showed the
:32:30. > :32:34.increasing irrelevance of the Tories in the North? Tory minded voters in
:32:35. > :32:38.the North Sea more inclined to vote for UKIP than you? I think
:32:39. > :32:43.by-elections are by-elections. The same day, we took a seat from Labour
:32:44. > :32:48.in Birmingham. Well, that was a by-election as well, so we should
:32:49. > :32:52.discount that as well. You should learn from them, and we need to look
:32:53. > :32:56.forward to the elections in 201 . That is in May this year, when we
:32:57. > :33:04.have a chance to really grab this change in Europe, grab this change
:33:05. > :33:08.that we were talking about just now. You don't worry, particularly in the
:33:09. > :33:13.north, if people want to vote against Labour your supporters are
:33:14. > :33:16.drifting to UKIP? I think people vote UKIP in a European election and
:33:17. > :33:21.they have done that for many years. They vote that because they want
:33:22. > :33:25.change. The problem is, Patrick s party have had MEPs since 1999 and
:33:26. > :33:30.they cannot deliver that change They can't because they don't have
:33:31. > :33:35.seats in Westminster. It was on that video, the only way we are going to
:33:36. > :33:39.get the change we want in Europe is to have that referendum and have the
:33:40. > :33:48.renegotiation, and that means vote Tory. What do you say to that? Let's
:33:49. > :33:53.get real, the Conservative Party has not won a Parliamentary majority in
:33:54. > :33:55.22 years. But the only way you will get a referendum, if that is what
:33:56. > :33:59.motivates you, and with UKIP it is, motivates you, and with UKIP it is,
:34:00. > :34:02.the only way it will be a referendum on Europe in this country as if
:34:03. > :34:04.there is a majority Conservative government at the next election And
:34:05. > :34:09.there is a majority Conservative you could well stop that from
:34:10. > :34:11.happening? I don't accept that. I believe, just as we forced David
:34:12. > :34:14.happening? I don't accept that. I Cameron and into a referendum pledge
:34:15. > :34:18.before through our success, and I before through our success, and I
:34:19. > :34:21.was there in PMQs, when his MPs asked him and he said it would not
:34:22. > :34:24.be in the national interest because he didn't want to leave, our
:34:25. > :34:29.electoral success forced that pledge. I believe by winning the
:34:30. > :34:33.European action this May we can force Ed Miliband, again, against
:34:34. > :34:36.his will, to match that pledge. Then, whatever formulation varies in
:34:37. > :34:43.the next Parliament, we will get a referendum. Labour MPs have just had
:34:44. > :34:45.the chance to say we want a referendum. They refused to do it.
:34:46. > :34:50.The only way you are going to get a The only way you are going to get a
:34:51. > :34:53.renegotiation, a change in our relationship with Europe and an in
:34:54. > :34:54.renegotiation, a change in our or out referendum is to have a
:34:55. > :34:57.renegotiation, a change in our Conservative Government. Please
:34:58. > :35:04.UKIP, stop pretending that you can deliver, because you don't deliver
:35:05. > :35:07.and you don't... We have delivered, we forced David Cameron to give a
:35:08. > :35:13.pledge for a referendum he didn t want to make. We will know if you
:35:14. > :35:17.are right about Ed Miliband or not, you will have to tell us going into
:35:18. > :35:22.the campaign. If you are wrong, what do you do then? There are still
:35:23. > :35:24.loads of reasons for people to vote UKIP. A referendum is one thing
:35:25. > :35:30.loads of reasons for people to vote David Cameron, and I asked him
:35:31. > :35:36.directly, thermally wants to stay in. He wants to be the Edward Heath
:35:37. > :35:40.of the 21st century. The Tories are going to say, vote UKIP, get Ed
:35:41. > :35:44.Miliband. What would you say to that? I would say we have probably
:35:45. > :35:48.maxed out the Tory vote we are going to get because David Cameron has
:35:49. > :35:53.been incredibly helpful in sending them in our direction. Our potential
:35:54. > :35:58.for growth now, would we are concentrating on, his those
:35:59. > :36:01.disenchanted former Labour voters and more and more of them are coming
:36:02. > :36:07.towards us on things like immigration and law and order. We
:36:08. > :36:11.want to renegotiate our relationship with Europe. We need to have people
:36:12. > :36:14.who are going to turn up to negotiate with people like Barroso.
:36:15. > :36:21.That meant a Prime Minister that is not Ed Miliband but David Cameron.
:36:22. > :36:26.That meant a Prime Minister that is UKIP MEPs do not turn up to
:36:27. > :36:31.defenders. If President Hollande is as good as his word and says there
:36:32. > :36:35.will be no substantial renegotiation, certainly no treaty
:36:36. > :36:41.change this side of 2017 when he is up for the election, what do you do
:36:42. > :36:46.then? He is a French Socialist Prime Minister, I don't expect him to
:36:47. > :36:54.agree. But you can't bring anything of substance back with these
:36:55. > :36:56.negotiations. Then people will vote to leave. The Prime Minister has
:36:57. > :37:02.been very clear that British public to leave. The Prime Minister has
:37:03. > :37:06.opinion is on a knife edge and unless we get what we want from a
:37:07. > :37:09.renegotiation, we will leave. You would vote to leave? Let's see what
:37:10. > :37:13.we get with the deal on the table in would vote to leave? Let's see what
:37:14. > :37:18.2017. If the status quo was what we have today, I would vote to leave.
:37:19. > :37:24.But I want to renegotiate. We will have to move on. For those viewers
:37:25. > :37:27.lucky enough to live in the East of England, they will be seeing more of
:37:28. > :37:32.Patrick in a moment. You are watching Sunday Politics. Coming up
:37:33. > :37:48.talking about, what else, the talking about, what else, the
:37:49. > :37:56.Welcome to your local part of the show for Cumbria and the north`east.
:37:57. > :38:04.2000 jobs are going at Durham county council. Do such councils have any
:38:05. > :38:09.sort of future? We ask the leader. And we report on the campaign is
:38:10. > :38:17.trying to save their local maternity services. I am joined by Labour MP
:38:18. > :38:26.Andy McDonald and lived them European MP, fearing bottle.
:38:27. > :38:34.We start with the fire station closures in Sunderland and Wallsend.
:38:35. > :38:37.On Teeside, another debate, whether they mutually business owned and run
:38:38. > :38:46.by its own employers should be set up, a John Lewis of firefighting, if
:38:47. > :38:52.you like. You were in the meeting. Was anything said or change your
:38:53. > :38:56.mind? I'm not sure I need to change my
:38:57. > :39:04.mind. It seems that the authority are not wedded to the idea. They
:39:05. > :39:10.have excluded as an option yet continue to look at it, I can quite
:39:11. > :39:17.understand. And there was government money to look at this? Significant
:39:18. > :39:34.funds. So I unclear if it is still an option. Does the chief fire
:39:35. > :39:39.officer wanted? `` want it? There is no guarantee it would remain a
:39:40. > :39:43.mutual. The opposite is true, within a few years it would have to be open
:39:44. > :39:52.to tender and the likely option is privatisation. I am vehemently
:39:53. > :40:03.opposed to that. There are, was it right to explore the idea `` Fiona.
:40:04. > :40:12.All innovative possibilities are worth exploring. We know that the
:40:13. > :40:16.John Lewis model works. It would need careful consideration to avoid
:40:17. > :40:27.unforeseen hazards, but it is definitely worth exploring.
:40:28. > :40:36.It has been a story of relentless cuts for local councils. This week,
:40:37. > :40:45.Cumbria county council's term. `` turn. Three more years of savings
:40:46. > :40:51.ahead, is it inevitable that councils will continue to shrink in
:40:52. > :40:59.size and influence? Ed Miliband says there is another way.
:41:00. > :41:08.Labour is talking about budgets lasting up to five years to offer
:41:09. > :41:11.financial certainty. People would get more of a say on how councils
:41:12. > :41:18.spend their money in communities. But they have not yet gone as far as
:41:19. > :41:29.song, the think tank IPPR has called for a massive handover of power from
:41:30. > :41:38.Whitehall to councils. But it warned that politicians often make promises
:41:39. > :41:43.only to renege on them. It is harder to translate commitment into
:41:44. > :41:49.reality. There are serious practical issues. The civil service is
:41:50. > :41:58.reluctant to link was control of resources. It is hard to get the
:41:59. > :42:12.public on side. `` reluctant to relinquish control. I don't think
:42:13. > :42:21.that Londoners would want to see the discrepancies they are reversed. ``
:42:22. > :42:28.there. You considered your own budget cuts
:42:29. > :42:30.in Durham this week. Despite reductions in funding, many would
:42:31. > :42:36.say the council is still doing a good job. Were you inefficient
:42:37. > :42:43.before? Everything was done for a reason. We
:42:44. > :42:49.need to live within our means. We have had to reduce the budget by 120
:42:50. > :42:54.million already. We think there is another 100 million to come in the
:42:55. > :42:59.next three years. After recent statements by George Osborne, it may
:43:00. > :43:03.be longer than that. But clearly all councils, not just ours, will reduce
:43:04. > :43:10.in size. How far can it keep going before you
:43:11. > :43:17.are in a situation when you cannot provide the their minimum services
:43:18. > :43:21.for vulnerable people, and children? Some councils are already moving to
:43:22. > :43:28.that unfortunate decision. We are not one. We became a unitary
:43:29. > :43:35.authority which made us the largest in the region, about 500 thousand
:43:36. > :43:40.people. A critical mass which means we don't have to make difficult
:43:41. > :43:47.decisions, possibly giving a slightly longer before we do have to
:43:48. > :43:50.make those decisions. But in the next couple of years we will have to
:43:51. > :43:56.look at everything we do and inevitably there will be another
:43:57. > :43:59.reduction in size. The north`east councils working
:44:00. > :44:06.together, with no more money, does it make any difference? It is a
:44:07. > :44:09.difficult part in this country, that there is no level in between local
:44:10. > :44:18.councils and the national government. That is not tenable. It
:44:19. > :44:22.is interesting that the move to combined authorities have then
:44:23. > :44:30.prompted by the national government. `` have been. As a conduit between
:44:31. > :44:40.government and local government, people are bound to ask, will this
:44:41. > :44:43.cost more money? The first thing is that it is important we work
:44:44. > :44:48.together. It makes no sense for councils to work on their own,
:44:49. > :44:53.particularly on strategic issues like skills and economic
:44:54. > :44:59.development, transport... But will it cost more money? I have on a
:45:00. > :45:03.number of occasions said that I don't believe we should look at new
:45:04. > :45:10.expensive offices, buildings, and so on. We are trying to use councils
:45:11. > :45:21.working together to save resources, if anything, to strategically land
:45:22. > :45:28.better than at the moment. And to be able to advocate stronger than we
:45:29. > :45:34.would do individually. Will this not be a distraction? What is being
:45:35. > :45:41.talked about is a change at the centre. I very much support that.
:45:42. > :45:47.You cannot have a period of austerity like this without looking
:45:48. > :45:55.at the centre of government as well. Arguably, England is over governed
:45:56. > :45:58.by the centre. There should be devolution of power away from the
:45:59. > :46:10.centre to areas such as the north`east. Would you need a mayor
:46:11. > :46:16.at the head of a combined authority? The government model is one of
:46:17. > :46:22.combined authority and... How can you be democratically accountable?
:46:23. > :46:29.You are from Durham and making decisions about Sunderland and
:46:30. > :46:34.Newcastle. We are elected. Clearly, the issue with the previous body,
:46:35. > :46:38.and I have to say I thought they did a good job, but democratically they
:46:39. > :46:50.were unaccountable at the ballot box. That has been rectified.
:46:51. > :46:57.Fiona, given that councils must manage with less, what is the vision
:46:58. > :47:06.for the future? There is great advantages in devolving powers. The
:47:07. > :47:09.Liberal Democrats support it. And with a combined authority going
:47:10. > :47:24.forward we have the chance to do things that any single council on
:47:25. > :47:35.its own cannot do all alone. But politicians talk a good game, and
:47:36. > :47:42.when they deliver, it is weak. We see the need to do more. Like and
:47:43. > :47:46.skills, for instance, where we have a European structural investment
:47:47. > :47:52.fund that was not spent on a regional level beforehand and will
:47:53. > :47:55.be now. I think it is a good thing but my only concern is that this
:47:56. > :48:05.must not be another lot of meetings behind closed doors. It is important
:48:06. > :48:09.everybody knows what is going on. Labour are saying they will hand
:48:10. > :48:13.lots of powers over, being vague, when you get into power, will you
:48:14. > :48:20.not say, we don't want to do that now? Ed Miliband set out a
:48:21. > :48:26.commitment to a radical approach to local government and services. I
:48:27. > :48:31.hope we're not going to too cynical. We were on a downward spiral to the
:48:32. > :48:36.irreducible minimum of the basic discharge of statutory services.
:48:37. > :48:46.This is a refreshing take on reversing the trend. The Labour
:48:47. > :48:50.party have told us they will not be able to spend any more than the
:48:51. > :49:08.Conservatives. Individual councils are in decline, and they? `` aren't
:49:09. > :49:12.they? Where on earth is the equity in the distribution of the nation's
:49:13. > :49:19.resources? We need to have our own sake, and that should be via a
:49:20. > :49:28.direct body in this region. `` our own say. Some would say this is the
:49:29. > :49:31.biggest crisis, there is so little left that some councils will be left
:49:32. > :49:39.in a situation where they cannot abide the legal minimum. But as we
:49:40. > :49:41.were saying, and Labour also acknowledge the severe cuts ahead,
:49:42. > :49:49.not just the current government, but... You must talk to friends who
:49:50. > :49:57.are counsellors and say that they cannot take any more of this. Also,
:49:58. > :50:02.schools have been taken away from councils left right and centre. You
:50:03. > :50:06.talk a good game about councils, but when it comes to it, we can then
:50:07. > :50:18.financially, and weaken their powers. `` weaken them financially.
:50:19. > :50:21.We have the potential to control the resources we have in difficult
:50:22. > :50:28.circumstances in a way that is more focused on what we need. Talk of a
:50:29. > :50:38.combined authority in Teeside. Should there be an elected mayor? It
:50:39. > :50:41.is a possibility. But many people think that the break`up of Cleveland
:50:42. > :50:48.county council was not the right step. Relatively small unitary
:50:49. > :50:56.authorities with the expense incurred is questionable. We need to
:50:57. > :51:02.work in a more collaborative way. That is across local authorities and
:51:03. > :51:07.public utilities and services. Thank you very much. What does
:51:08. > :51:13.William Hague have in common with a North Tyneside Labour in? Both have
:51:14. > :51:32.campaigned to save maternity services. North `` a North Tyneside
:51:33. > :51:35.Labour MP. Mother of four, Rebecca, discovered
:51:36. > :51:41.she had epilepsy after her eldest child was born. That meant that to
:51:42. > :51:47.deliver her next three children she could not go to her local hospital.
:51:48. > :51:54.It only has midwives on duty, no doctors on hand to deal with
:51:55. > :52:01.complications. But now North Tyneside Hospital may close it
:52:02. > :52:09.maternity unit altogether. It is not necessary to have a doctoral lead
:52:10. > :52:19.service, a midwife led unit is fine, I had Ellen one spec recently, `` in
:52:20. > :52:27.Wansbeck, and they were absolutely brilliant. At the moment only around
:52:28. > :52:38.four children a week are being delivered by North Tyneside. 90%
:52:39. > :52:42.give birth outside of the area. The strongest message we heard was, we
:52:43. > :52:47.want to deliver our babies where we get good midwife care, but in the
:52:48. > :52:55.same building, there is a full team if we need it. That is just not the
:52:56. > :53:00.case at North Tyneside. If somebody needs a doctor or operating theatre,
:53:01. > :53:06.they have to get into an ambulance and be taken to a different
:53:07. > :53:11.hospital. Planned changes have also been a big issue elsewhere in the
:53:12. > :53:20.region. Opposition in North Yorkshire. The possibility of a
:53:21. > :53:26.hospital being downgraded their to a midwife led department. That led to
:53:27. > :53:33.the intervention of William Hague. A decision is imminent. The NHS closed
:53:34. > :53:37.a unit in Northumberland due to concerns that they were so few
:53:38. > :53:48.earths midwifes were not getting enough practice. `` so few briths. A
:53:49. > :54:00.local Labour MP believes there have been too many changes in his
:54:01. > :54:04.constituency. We were told at North Tyneside would retain the unit and
:54:05. > :54:09.it was safe. And that it would be a good thing if consultant led
:54:10. > :54:13.services went elsewhere. Now we're being told that the latest thinking
:54:14. > :54:20.is that midwife led units should be in the same building as them. I want
:54:21. > :54:23.to know why it is that thinking has changed so dramatically within a
:54:24. > :54:29.decade to contradict what we were told last time. The last public
:54:30. > :54:33.meeting about the future of the North Tyneside unit took place this
:54:34. > :54:39.week and the consultation closes next month.
:54:40. > :54:46.What distance is reasonable, do you think, to ask women to travel? One
:54:47. > :54:51.thing that is difficult is that the situation in urban areas is
:54:52. > :55:06.different to the situation in rural parts. You are looking at travelling
:55:07. > :55:08.40 of the nine miles. `` 40 or 50. It is difficult, because for
:55:09. > :55:15.complications, you want specialist services. But then on the other side
:55:16. > :55:21.of the occasion, there is the anxiety about being away from your
:55:22. > :55:29.family, the difficulty of travelling that distance. We need new ways of
:55:30. > :55:36.addressing this. Bringing services remotely, improving training. In a
:55:37. > :55:42.world of limited resources, not every service can be on your
:55:43. > :55:47.doorstep, can it? None of us can expect that, but in this situation
:55:48. > :55:52.we should listen to the people who matter, who use the service, and
:55:53. > :55:57.that film pointed out clearly that we should start the process much
:55:58. > :56:04.earlier. People need a say in the planning. Have people not already
:56:05. > :56:11.voted with their feet? They are not giving birth at this hospital. You
:56:12. > :56:14.make a very good point. If people are part of the discussion, we had
:56:15. > :56:23.that in my neighbouring constituency, decisions were on
:56:24. > :56:27.track. And people decided they wanted to be in a centre where there
:56:28. > :56:34.was a consultant and midwife service in one. But I still maintain you
:56:35. > :56:40.should listen to people at the outset before reaching crisis point.
:56:41. > :56:48.One advantage of being all that is you get to travel free on the buses.
:56:49. > :57:02.`` being older. But that is no consolation if bus services are cut.
:57:03. > :57:09.More on that, and the rest of the weeks news, in 60 seconds. Ofsted
:57:10. > :57:13.has voiced serious concerns about the quality of secondary education
:57:14. > :57:24.in Cumbria is five more schools are placed under special measures. `` as
:57:25. > :57:28.five more schools. One MP has argued that pensioners should be able to
:57:29. > :57:35.pay subsidised fares to keep bus services going. I believe that the
:57:36. > :57:45.way forward is to put concessionary travel by bus on the same legal
:57:46. > :57:48.footing as for rail. The Chancellor visited Cumbria on Thursday and
:57:49. > :57:55.warned about the impact of an independent Scotland. David Cameron
:57:56. > :58:03.has promised what money it takes to help flood victims in the South.
:58:04. > :58:13.They local MP has written to demand that victims in Cumbria get the same
:58:14. > :58:17.government support. `` A local MP. However useful it is to have a free
:58:18. > :58:27.bus pass, and I'm sure pensioners he stated, but the system is stretched,
:58:28. > :58:33.and they are travelling for nothing. What you run the risk of doing is
:58:34. > :58:40.bus companies saying, we will go where people pay, and not bother
:58:41. > :58:45.elsewhere. People who cannot afford a contribution are denied access to
:58:46. > :58:54.a public transport system. Is there any solution? Not unless you turn
:58:55. > :58:57.the clock back a long way. But I applaud bus companies, be a little
:58:58. > :59:13.bit more consistent in providing services. `` I implore. They need to
:59:14. > :59:20.look at their responsibilities. There has to be a better solution
:59:21. > :59:25.than just more public subsidy. If you opt for means testing you spend
:59:26. > :59:35.more money on the administration. And across the board class is a very
:59:36. > :59:45.simple way of helping pensioners. `` across the board pass. If people
:59:46. > :59:58.want to pay there is nothing to stop them playing. `` paying. But the
:59:59. > :00:09.individual who gets on next, he might not pay, someone else has? And
:00:10. > :00:12.efficient way to get revenue is to tax wealthy pensioners at the same
:00:13. > :00:22.way you with tax wealthy people in general. There is no by having a
:00:23. > :00:31.really expensive and student body. That is about that. Thanks to my
:00:32. > :00:35.guests. No Sunday Baltics next week. `` Politics. In a fortnight we will
:00:36. > :00:44.ask if rural areas direction? No, in real terms now the
:00:45. > :00:49.rent is falling in London. Andrew, back to you.
:00:50. > :00:53.Welcome back. Let's start by talking about the weather. What could be
:00:54. > :00:56.more British? It has been practically the only topic of
:00:57. > :00:59.conversation for the past few weeks. This morning, Ed Miliband has
:01:00. > :01:07.made the direct link, declaims, between this exceptionally wet and
:01:08. > :01:10.windy weather and climate change. That's an interesting development,
:01:11. > :01:21.taking place. Ed Miliband is the author of the 2008 Climate Change
:01:22. > :01:27.Act, so he has to stick to that line or his life 's work goes up in
:01:28. > :01:30.smoke. When he passed it, there was Westminster consensus. Now the
:01:31. > :01:35.Tories are beginning to appeal off. UKIP has definitely peeled off.
:01:36. > :01:40.Labour and Lib Dems are sticking to their guns, there is now a debate?
:01:41. > :01:43.It has moved from consensus to very fragile consensus. It's an
:01:44. > :01:46.interesting tactic for Ed Miliband to take. He could either approach
:01:47. > :01:50.the floods talking about government failures and handling, instead he
:01:51. > :01:54.has gone for the intellectual argument, try and turn this into a
:01:55. > :01:57.debate about ideology and climate change. I think he will find that
:01:58. > :02:03.quite difficult. Partly, I don't think the public I get listening to
:02:04. > :02:07.an argument like that. Partly because only one in three of the
:02:08. > :02:10.public totally agree with him. The polls for The Times think that about
:02:11. > :02:15.one in three think that man-made I'm a change is responsible for these
:02:16. > :02:21.floods, the rest do not. I'm not sure that the interventions will be
:02:22. > :02:24.particularly well picked up. It puts David Cameron in a difficult
:02:25. > :02:27.position. He was hugging those huskies, it was going to be the
:02:28. > :02:33.greenest Government ever, and now he has an Environment secretary that
:02:34. > :02:38.doesn't really believe in climate change. Well, we don't know where he
:02:39. > :02:42.stands. That is not where he was in 2010. It has always been sold to us
:02:43. > :02:46.that he is statesman-like and pragmatic, but that drifts into he
:02:47. > :02:52.doesn't really believe anything This is a worldwide phenomenon now.
:02:53. > :02:55.You've got the Canadian government, they are pretty sceptical these
:02:56. > :02:59.days. The new Australian government is pretty sceptical. The Obama
:03:00. > :03:04.administration has been attacked by the green movement across the United
:03:05. > :03:13.States, he is probably about to approve the keystone pipeline that
:03:14. > :03:18.will take over the Texas refineries. What was a huge consensus across the
:03:19. > :03:21.globe is a guinea to break down Probably started to break down about
:03:22. > :03:25.the time of the financial crisis, the age of austerity, when suddenly
:03:26. > :03:29.people had more to worry about than green issues. Even at home it is a
:03:30. > :03:32.slightly risky tactic for Ed Miliband. The idea there is a
:03:33. > :03:37.scientific consensus on this, there isn't. You look at Professor Collins
:03:38. > :03:42.this morning, climate systems expert, saying, actually, the jet
:03:43. > :03:46.stream is not operating further south because of climate change Or
:03:47. > :03:49.if it is, it is beyond our knowledge. He flies in the face of
:03:50. > :03:56.what Ed Miliband as saying. He's saying the wet weather is caused by
:03:57. > :04:00.global warming, the head of science at Exeter University says the IPCC
:04:01. > :04:04.originally looked at whether climate change could affect what happens to
:04:05. > :04:08.the jet stream and, because it had no evidence it had any effect, it
:04:09. > :04:14.decided not to include it at all in the IPCC report. The problem we have
:04:15. > :04:18.got is that any individual phenomenon is difficult to attribute
:04:19. > :04:21.to climate change. But the Labour Leader just have? And The Met Office
:04:22. > :04:25.have done the same thing. It's a fragile in, but overall we can say
:04:26. > :04:29.we are getting more extreme weather than ever. The most extreme weather,
:04:30. > :04:35.hurricanes and tropical storm is, they have been in decline. Equally,
:04:36. > :04:41.we have had ten of the hottest summers in the last ten years since
:04:42. > :04:46.1998. Overall, there is a case that can be made that we are getting
:04:47. > :04:49.more. Each individual thing is difficult to say. Until recently,
:04:50. > :04:55.almost everyone agreed with that case. Now the parties are reflecting
:04:56. > :04:57.differences. I wanted to move on, what did you make of two interesting
:04:58. > :05:05.things that happened with the interview with UKIP and the Tories,
:05:06. > :05:10.one Cory saying I am voting to come out, and the UKIP chap saying we are
:05:11. > :05:14.maxed out on Tory defectors, we can't get any more? I think that was
:05:15. > :05:19.a dangerous admission from Patrick O'Flynn from UKIP, essentially
:05:20. > :05:23.saying that their vote has peaked. Looking at the by-elections, I'm not
:05:24. > :05:27.sure that was a particularly wise reflection on that. They got 18 ,
:05:28. > :05:32.23% last year. The case he is making is that there are more votes to be
:05:33. > :05:36.gained by attracting former Labour voters than former Tories. I'm not
:05:37. > :05:40.sure that red UKIP, the bit of UKIP that tries to make benefit
:05:41. > :05:45.protection and some other kind of social issues at the heart really
:05:46. > :05:47.sits comfortably with their insurgent, anti-state message. I
:05:48. > :05:54.don't think it will do particularly well. This is why they are pushing
:05:55. > :05:57.the message, it is their response to the idea and suggestion of a Tory
:05:58. > :06:03.rallying cry that they vote for Nigel Farage, and it is really a
:06:04. > :06:08.vote for Ed Miliband. Patrick is a very good journalist, a very good
:06:09. > :06:10.commentator. He answered almost as a commentator rather than head of
:06:11. > :06:17.communications for a political party. The Government are still
:06:18. > :06:22.trying to rid itself of troublesome priests, an attack on welfare
:06:23. > :06:29.reforms from the Catholic Archbishop of Westminster. Let's have a look
:06:30. > :06:34.and see what he said. The basic safety net that was there to
:06:35. > :06:37.guarantee that people would not be left in hunger or in destitution has
:06:38. > :06:45.actually been torn apart. It no longer exists. And it is a real
:06:46. > :06:51.real, dramatic crisis. The second is that, in this context, the
:06:52. > :06:55.administration of social assistance, I am told, has become more and more
:06:56. > :06:59.punitive. If applicants do not get it right, they have to wait and they
:07:00. > :07:06.have to wait for ten days, two weeks, with nothing. Has the basic
:07:07. > :07:10.safety net disappeared? I don't see how it is possible to argue that. It
:07:11. > :07:12.is certainly the case that there have been reductions in various
:07:13. > :07:16.benefits, some benefits have been scrapped and there is a welfare
:07:17. > :07:21.reform programme. But this country is still spending ?94 billion a year
:07:22. > :07:29.on working age benefits. Excluding pensions? The idea that this equates
:07:30. > :07:34.to some sort of wiping out of the safety net is... He has gone on a
:07:35. > :07:40.full frontal assault on the Tory reforms, not the kind of attack that
:07:41. > :07:45.Labour would be prepared to make? No, they know that it doesn't play
:07:46. > :07:51.very well in the country. He's not up for election. Whether or not you
:07:52. > :07:54.agree about the safety net, I think the welfare reforms have been poorly
:07:55. > :07:59.managed and I don't think that is a full dispute. Universal credit, it
:08:00. > :08:02.is in some very long grass. It had some stupid ideas, like the idea
:08:03. > :08:05.that it would be paid monthly, instead of weekly, meaning that
:08:06. > :08:10.people are more likely to run out of money by the end of the month. It's
:08:11. > :08:14.interesting, in the past, when members of the cloth have attacked
:08:15. > :08:19.the government for welfare reforms, the Government have responded by
:08:20. > :08:24.trying to paint them as lefties ideological driven. I think that is
:08:25. > :08:27.hard in this case, an assault made deliberately in the Telegraph from
:08:28. > :08:31.somebody who feels they come from a centre-right position. I think there
:08:32. > :08:35.will be a bit of awkwardness about this intervention. It is not the
:08:36. > :08:39.kind of thing they wanted to see. Is it politically damaging for the
:08:40. > :08:43.Government? It is if it makes them look mean-spirited. But that is the
:08:44. > :08:46.problem with welfare reforms. You can say all sorts of things about
:08:47. > :08:53.Iain Duncan Smith's competence. But the whole thing springs from a moral
:08:54. > :08:56.mission, as he sees it, to liberate the poor and extend opportunity One
:08:57. > :09:01.of the worst moments for the Tories was blaming the low level of voting
:09:02. > :09:05.in Wythenshawe and sale in the fact that the constituency had, in the
:09:06. > :09:09.words of one senior Tory, the largest council estate in Europe
:09:10. > :09:13.inside its constituency boundary. The point being what? Because you
:09:14. > :09:17.live in a council estate you don't vote? That they don't see people
:09:18. > :09:21.living in council estate as one of them, not an impulse that Margaret
:09:22. > :09:24.Thatcher would have had. I think it's dangerous if they are painting
:09:25. > :09:30.is people as opponents rather than trying to win them over. When they
:09:31. > :09:36.do vote, they determine elections! The idea that there is no such thing
:09:37. > :09:42.as a working-class Tory is toxic. I want to show you a picture. There we
:09:43. > :09:49.go. It is behind me, on the 5th of February, it is all men. And then,
:09:50. > :09:54.on the next, look at that, the 2th, there are a few women. Not exactly
:09:55. > :09:59.many, but some. It is an improvement. But it is so
:10:00. > :10:04.transparent, isn't it? We phoned up one of the women that sat behind
:10:05. > :10:08.David Cameron to ask, why the sudden change? They said, I don't know why
:10:09. > :10:12.you are bothering to ask, it is completely natural, we didn't do
:10:13. > :10:16.anything to stage manage it. Did his nose gets longer? It is something
:10:17. > :10:21.that is very transparent and depressing about the way politicians
:10:22. > :10:28.choose to react to these moments. Every week they put two women behind
:10:29. > :10:32.David Cameron, so that a tight shot shows them. It is called the
:10:33. > :10:37.doughnut. They don't have many women to shuffle around, there are only
:10:38. > :10:42.four among 14 in the Shadow Cabinet. Also, the fact that women, younger
:10:43. > :10:48.women in particular, are much less likely to vote Tory than five or ten
:10:49. > :10:54.years ago. David Cameron, it drives and furious, he is obviously aware
:10:55. > :10:58.this is one of the biggest potential demographic problem is that they
:10:59. > :11:02.have. It also reminds us of how the public can actually see the wiring
:11:03. > :11:04.behind a lot of the stuff. Do they really think your blog so stupid
:11:05. > :11:11.that they will not notice that the following week the front bench is
:11:12. > :11:16.packed with women? I think it just increases contempt for the entire
:11:17. > :11:19.rocket. It is an issue where Labour seem to have pulled ahead of the
:11:20. > :11:25.other parties. We are being told that 50% of candidates in their 100
:11:26. > :11:29.target seats will be female. It looks like the composition of Labour
:11:30. > :11:35.continues to go towards a kind of rough 50-50 split, eventually.
:11:36. > :11:40.Although that is true, I think the faces we see on the telly, Ed
:11:41. > :11:44.Miliband, Ed Balls, Chris Leslie, they are almost always men. There is
:11:45. > :11:49.a Rachel Reeves, a prominent female face that goes up a lot. But really,
:11:50. > :11:55.the number of e-mails they put up is proportionally a lot smaller. Is the
:11:56. > :12:01.Miliband team still a men's club? Behind the scenes, it is very
:12:02. > :12:04.blokey. It's been described as a kind of seminar room at a
:12:05. > :12:11.university. I think that is true. The Observer did the cutout and keep
:12:12. > :12:16.of the people behind Mr Miliband. As opposed to the Shadow Cabinet, with
:12:17. > :12:20.lots of women in it, it was very male. The one reason Labour have all
:12:21. > :12:24.of these women to put up in constituencies is all women short
:12:25. > :12:32.lists is. If Tories want to change things, I know they can be prone to
:12:33. > :12:41.minute -- and in relation, but they work. In ten years time, I think it
:12:42. > :12:48.will give Labour an immense advantage. By then, I think they
:12:49. > :12:53.will have a woman leader. Who will that be? Potentially somebody not
:12:54. > :12:57.even yet in the Commons. You can see how quickly people can rise to the
:12:58. > :13:05.top, but the Labour Party is going to be increasingly donated by women.
:13:06. > :13:11.Do you think there will be a Labour Leader before Theresa May becomes
:13:12. > :13:15.leader of the Conservatives? I think it is ultimately about Osborne
:13:16. > :13:21.trying to stop Boris. I think I would be astonished if she managed
:13:22. > :13:25.it. The first female Labour Leader? I would pick Rachel Reeves the way
:13:26. > :13:33.it is currently going, she knows her stuff and does well on TV. That is
:13:34. > :13:38.all for this week. We have a week off now. I'll be back in the week
:13:39. > :13:41.after next. Remember, if it is Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics,
:13:42. > :13:44.unless it's a Parliamentary recess.