:00:35. > :00:42.Morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. The dust has barely
:00:43. > :00:45.settled on George Osborne's Budget and, amazingly, for once it hasn't
:00:46. > :00:47.all gone horribly wrong by the weekend. So, is this the election
:00:48. > :00:50.springboard the Tories needed, and where does it leave Labour? Turns
:00:51. > :00:54.out the big Budget surprise was a where does it leave Labour? Turns
:00:55. > :00:58.revolution in how we pay for old age. The Pensions Minister says he's
:00:59. > :01:04.relaxed if you want to spend it all on a Lamborghini. He'll join us
:01:05. > :01:06.later. And could the man with the maracas be on his way to
:01:07. > :01:09.later. And could the man with the Westminster? Bez from the Happy
:01:10. > :01:17.Here: Will the budget kick`start the plan
:01:18. > :01:20.Here: Will the budget kick`start the region's recovery or leave ts
:01:21. > :01:21.lagging further behind? A c`mpaign to
:01:22. > :01:35.stay in Axbridge. Are there ways of making the European arrest warrant
:01:36. > :01:38.work better? -- Uxbridge. And who better to help guide you through all
:01:39. > :01:41.of that than three journalists, who dispense wisdom faster than Grant
:01:42. > :01:44.Shapps calls out the numbers in his local bingo hall over a pint of
:01:45. > :01:51.beer. Yes, they're hard-working and they're doing the things they enjoy.
:01:52. > :01:52.Cup of tea, number three. It's Nick Watt, Polly Toynbee and Janan
:01:53. > :02:01.Ganesh. So, George Osborne delivered his
:02:02. > :02:04.fifth Budget on Wednesday and had so many glowing front pages the day
:02:05. > :02:08.afterwards he must be running out of room to pin them up in on his
:02:09. > :02:11.bedroom wall. Although it's probably a pretty big wall. For those of you
:02:12. > :02:15.who didn't have time to watch 3 5 hours of Budget coverage on the BBC,
:02:16. > :02:43.here's Giles with the whole thing in three minutes.
:02:44. > :02:47.Budget days have a rhythm of their own, driven partly by tradition
:02:48. > :02:50.like that photocall at 11 Downing Street and part logistics, how to
:02:51. > :02:58.get this important statement out and explain to those whom it affects -
:02:59. > :03:06.us? Behind-the-scenes of a Budget Day is much the same. This ritual
:03:07. > :03:10.red boxery may be the beginning of the end of weeks of work behind the
:03:11. > :03:13.scenes in the Treasury and sets the clock ticking on the process of
:03:14. > :03:16.finding out the answer to one question. You got any rabbits in the
:03:17. > :03:19.box, Chancellor? Yes, there will be something in the Budget we don't
:03:20. > :03:22.know about. Time marches steadily towards the statement and already
:03:23. > :03:28.commentators are hovering over what those potential surprises are. As
:03:29. > :03:31.Big Ben chimes, all focus returns to the Commons, where there is Prime
:03:32. > :03:37.Minister's questions and the Chancellor gets up and does his
:03:38. > :03:40.thing. Once he's on his feet and remembering there is still no copy
:03:41. > :03:45.of the details, the major measures are rapidly highlighted as they come
:03:46. > :03:52.and then put up on screen. A cap on Government welfare spending set for
:03:53. > :03:57.2015/16 at 119 billion. Income tax personal allowance raised to
:03:58. > :04:00.?10,500. Bingo duty halved, which ticked boxes for some but was
:04:01. > :04:06.unlikely to make anyone a poster boy. And the beer tax cut of 1p or
:04:07. > :04:09.the froth on the top. And changes to pensions allowing people to take
:04:10. > :04:18.their money out in one lump sum rather than being forced to accept a
:04:19. > :04:21.fixed annual pay-out, or annuity. This is a Budget for the makers the
:04:22. > :04:25.doers and the savers and I commend it to the House. Not everyone can
:04:26. > :04:29.focus on the Budget by listening to what the Chancellor says. We need to
:04:30. > :04:33.get a copy of the script. We do not get that till he sits down. I'm
:04:34. > :04:40.going to go into the House of Commons to get that right now. There
:04:41. > :04:43.will be a response on that and all the other things from Mr Miliband.
:04:44. > :04:46.The Chancellor spoke for nearly an hour but he did not mention one
:04:47. > :04:51.essential fact, the working people of Britain are worse off under the
:04:52. > :04:54.Tories. It is a tricky job answering the Budget at the best of times
:04:55. > :04:56.though some, including Labour MPs, think it is better to mention the
:04:57. > :05:05.Budget when you do. Here we are. I am going to go. I am
:05:06. > :05:08.not the only journalist missing Ed Miliband's speech. Many others leave
:05:09. > :05:13.the Chamber as the Chancellor sits down to attend a special briefing
:05:14. > :05:19.from the Chancellor's advisory team. I am hotfoot to the studio. There is
:05:20. > :05:22.a little more detail to the Budget than the Budget Speech. That detail
:05:23. > :05:25.can be whether words unravel and other interpretations emerge. By now
:05:26. > :05:33.the gaggle of supporters and detractors are taking the debate
:05:34. > :05:37.onto the airwaves. Are you the BBC? Have the Daily Politics packed up?
:05:38. > :05:39.No, we're still standing and, days later, still trying to assess
:05:40. > :05:43.whether the measures announced still seem fresh and appetising or have
:05:44. > :05:54.already gone stale in the minds of voters?
:05:55. > :06:05.How significant are these two poles this morning putting Labour and Tory
:06:06. > :06:11.nip and tuck? Osborne gave his party a good bounce. It was an
:06:12. > :06:15.astonishingly theatrical coup. At first glance, it seems like a huge
:06:16. > :06:20.gift to all people. That is where all of the money has been channelled
:06:21. > :06:24.by this government. They have been ultra-protected, triple locked.
:06:25. > :06:29.Pensioners have done very well and others less well. It is not
:06:30. > :06:32.surprising. Normally a budget which is well received on the day and the
:06:33. > :06:40.day after has unravelled by the weekend. This time, it has not, so
:06:41. > :06:43.far. The dangerous thing for the Labour Party now, George Osborne is
:06:44. > :06:48.the assessment this thing called the baseline. He says, in government,
:06:49. > :06:54.you must control the baseline. The Labour party controlled in 2001 and
:06:55. > :06:57.2005 and he needs to control it next time. He is controlling it on fiscal
:06:58. > :07:02.policy because labour is matching them on everything. The danger for
:07:03. > :07:07.Labour on the big, headline grabbing issue, which was freeing up
:07:08. > :07:11.annuities on pensions, that again Labour was pretty much saying it was
:07:12. > :07:15.going to support it though it were saying it has to be fair and
:07:16. > :07:21.cost-effective. On a big, policy issue, they are following on behind
:07:22. > :07:25.George Osborne. George Osborne is controlling the crucial baseline.
:07:26. > :07:33.Are we in danger of reading too much into the political implications of
:07:34. > :07:38.the budget? The good thing about the pensions policy is, if it does
:07:39. > :07:44.unravel, it will not happen for ten years and, by that time, George
:07:45. > :07:48.Osborne will have left office. Towards the end of his speech, I
:07:49. > :07:52.thought, that is not enough. There is not an idea in your budget which
:07:53. > :07:57.is politically very vivid a year before an election. What I
:07:58. > :08:01.underestimated was, how many frustrated savers that are in the
:08:02. > :08:06.country. There are a lot of people who are frustrated by low interest
:08:07. > :08:11.rates and tax rates on pension pots. This was an explicit gesture for
:08:12. > :08:16.them. That is what has paid off in the polls in the past few days. You
:08:17. > :08:23.spend all of your money on your wardrobe, is that right? The bingo
:08:24. > :08:28.poster was a kind of get out of jail card for Labour. It gave them
:08:29. > :08:32.something to zoom in on. Everyone beat up on Grant Shapps, the Tory
:08:33. > :08:37.chairman. We read in the daily Telegraph that the fingerprints of
:08:38. > :08:43.the Chancellor were all over this poster. The Chancellor signed off it
:08:44. > :08:53.-- off on it and so did Lynton Crosby. They referred to working
:08:54. > :08:58.class people as, they are. How did it get into the Telegraph? We can
:08:59. > :09:04.only presume but grant Shapps made it clear that it was not him. We had
:09:05. > :09:07.a time when Labour politicians, we saw from the response of Ed Miliband
:09:08. > :09:12.onwards, they were not quite sure how to react to this budget. A lot
:09:13. > :09:17.of detail had to be absorbed. Suddenly, here is something we can
:09:18. > :09:27.talk about. You can see the thinking behind the poster was very sensible.
:09:28. > :09:29.We are not Tory toffs, we are interested in helping people who do
:09:30. > :09:36.not come from our backgrounds. The wording was awful and played into
:09:37. > :09:42.every cliche. It was all his fault. It shows how unsophisticated he
:09:43. > :09:52.was. There were people from Tory HQ who agreed the budget. A month down
:09:53. > :09:59.the line will the budget look as good? Probably. Once people look at
:10:00. > :10:02.it, pensions are fiendishly conjugated. Once they look and see
:10:03. > :10:06.what it will do with people having to pay for their own care because
:10:07. > :10:09.they can now take capital at their pension, that will come as a shock
:10:10. > :10:18.to a lot of people with small savings. It all be gone on their
:10:19. > :10:22.care. The polling will be neck and neck all the way. In the past,
:10:23. > :10:26.George Osborne has been accused of using his Budgets to tinker at the
:10:27. > :10:28.margins or pull cheap tricks on his political opponents. Perish the
:10:29. > :10:31.thought. But the big surprise in this year's statement was a
:10:32. > :10:41.genuinely radical shake-up of the pensions system that will affect
:10:42. > :10:45.most people who've yet to retire. At the moment, everyone is saving money
:10:46. > :10:51.into a defined contribution pension, that is the type most common in the
:10:52. > :10:55.private sector. They can take 2 % of the pot is a tax-free lump sum when
:10:56. > :11:00.they retire. The rest of the money, for most people, they are forced to
:11:01. > :11:03.buy an annuity, a form of insurance which provide a guaranteed monthly
:11:04. > :11:09.income until they die. Annuities have hardly been a bargain since
:11:10. > :11:16.interest rates were flat slashed following the financial crash. Even
:11:17. > :11:21.with a ?100,000 pension pot would only get an income of ?5,800 a year
:11:22. > :11:26.at current rates. From 2018, pensioners will not be forced to buy
:11:27. > :11:32.an annuity. They can do what they like with their money, even taking
:11:33. > :11:39.the entire pot as a lump some but paying tax on 75% of it.
:11:40. > :11:47.With an average pension pot closer to around ?30,000, pensioners would
:11:48. > :11:53.be more likely to buy a Skoda instead of a Lamborghini. Most newly
:11:54. > :11:58.retired people who take the cash are more likely to spend the money
:11:59. > :12:02.paying off their mortgage, helping a family member to buy a property or
:12:03. > :12:05.investing the money elsewhere. Well, earlier I spoke to the Pensions
:12:06. > :12:08.Minister. He's a Lib Dem called Steve Webb. I began by asking him if
:12:09. > :12:15.he still thought the reforms might lead to pensioners splurging all
:12:16. > :12:19.their savings on supercars. What this reform is about is treating
:12:20. > :12:23.people as adults. For far too long, we have said, we will make sure you
:12:24. > :12:27.save for your old age and then we will control each year how much is
:12:28. > :12:32.spent on what you spend it on. What we are saying is because we have
:12:33. > :12:35.formed -- reformed the state pension, we will be much more
:12:36. > :12:39.relaxed about what people do with their own money. The evidence is
:12:40. > :12:44.that people who have been frugal and saved hard for retirement do not
:12:45. > :12:48.generally blows a lot. They will spin it out. It is treating people
:12:49. > :12:54.as adults and giving them choices they should have had all along. It
:12:55. > :13:00.is a red herring, isn't it? The average pension pot is between 5000
:13:01. > :13:08.and 30,000. Lamborghinis aren't an option, correct? I gather only about
:13:09. > :13:11.5000 people a year retiring can buy a flashy Italian sports car. It
:13:12. > :13:15.might be about paying off a mortgage, paying off outstanding
:13:16. > :13:19.debts. Maybe spending more money earlier in retirement when they are
:13:20. > :13:24.fit and able and can enjoy it more. We will give people guidance. We
:13:25. > :13:27.will make sure when they retire there is someone to have a
:13:28. > :13:31.conversation with talking through the implications of spending the
:13:32. > :13:39.money early and options of investing it. This will be a real step
:13:40. > :13:41.forward. Even if you have a much bigger pension pot, say half ?1
:13:42. > :13:46.million, which is way bigger than the average, even then the marginal
:13:47. > :13:52.rates of tax will be a disincentive to take it all out at once. You will
:13:53. > :13:58.lose huge chunks of it at the 4 % band and then the 45% band. The tax
:13:59. > :14:03.system gives you the incentive to spread it out if the tax threshold
:14:04. > :14:08.is a bit over 10000 and the state pension is a bit over 7000, the
:14:09. > :14:17.first 3000 you draw out in a given year is tax-free. The next band is
:14:18. > :14:20.at 20%. Spreading your money will mean you pay less tax. That is why,
:14:21. > :14:25.in general, people will not blow the lot up front. They will spread it
:14:26. > :14:30.out over their retirement. You have kept this policy quiet. Not even a
:14:31. > :14:36.hint. How did you test it? How did you make sure it would be robust?
:14:37. > :14:41.You did not do a consultation. I have been talking about freeing up
:14:42. > :14:45.the annuity market for a decade The idea of giving people more choice.
:14:46. > :14:48.The government has relaxed rules over this Parliament. It was not a
:14:49. > :14:52.completely new idea. We know in places like Australia and America,
:14:53. > :15:01.people have these freedoms. We already have something to judge it
:15:02. > :15:03.by. We will spend the next year talking to people, working it
:15:04. > :15:06.through. There will be a three-month consultation. I want people to have
:15:07. > :15:11.choices about their own money. There is detail still to be worked out and
:15:12. > :15:15.we are in listening mode about how we implement it. When you announce
:15:16. > :15:20.something you cannot do widespread consultation, for the reasons I have
:15:21. > :15:23.given, you do run the risk of unforeseen consequences? Pension
:15:24. > :15:26.companies this morning are indicating, you, the government can
:15:27. > :15:34.write you are looking for ?25 billion of infrastructure investment
:15:35. > :15:41.from us. You hold our shell below the water line. That may not happen.
:15:42. > :15:57.We spoke internally about the implications for instruction --
:15:58. > :16:05.infrastructure. It seems to me there will still be long-term investments.
:16:06. > :16:10.Many people want to turn their whole pot into an income. I understand the
:16:11. > :16:13.insurance companies are lobbying, but I'm convinced there will still
:16:14. > :16:18.be plenty of money for investment and infrastructure. If the
:16:19. > :16:26.Chancellor's pro-savings measures work, that will generate more
:16:27. > :16:30.savings. With no requirement now to buy an annuity, surely it is the
:16:31. > :16:38.case that pension pots are another ordinary savings fund, so why should
:16:39. > :16:44.they continue to get favourable tax treatment? Bear in mind that a lot
:16:45. > :16:48.of the tax treatment of pensioners is tax deferred so most people pay
:16:49. > :16:54.tax at the standard rate. If they put money into a pension, they don't
:16:55. > :17:02.pay tax when they earn it, but they do at retirement. We do want, we
:17:03. > :17:08.will still have automatic enrolment into workplace pensions, we do want
:17:09. > :17:14.people to build up, because at age 20 and 30 nobody thinks about
:17:15. > :17:18.retirement. It is still vital that people do reach retirement to have
:17:19. > :17:25.these new choices with a decent sized pension pot. Pensions. Tax
:17:26. > :17:29.breaks because they were supposed to provide an income in retirement
:17:30. > :17:35.that is how it was structured, but that is no longer a requirement
:17:36. > :17:42.surely that undermines the case that if they get tax breaks, other forms
:17:43. > :17:53.of savings should get tax breaks. Other forms do get tax breaks, of
:17:54. > :17:59.course. The return with ISAs is tax free. The point with pensions is
:18:00. > :18:08.that you are simply deferring your earnings. There is a bit when high
:18:09. > :18:13.tax rate payers get a kick when they are working and then retire on
:18:14. > :18:18.standard rate, so there is the issue of the top getting too many tax
:18:19. > :18:24.breaks, but the basic principle that you pay tax when you get the income
:18:25. > :18:29.seems right to me and isn't affected by these changes. You have announced
:18:30. > :18:34.save friendly measures, are we right to look at them as a consolation
:18:35. > :18:38.prize because savers have suffered from the Government's policy of
:18:39. > :18:43.keeping interest rates abnormally low? It is certainly the case that
:18:44. > :18:50.very low interest rates have been a huge boon to people of working age
:18:51. > :18:53.with mortgages, and people who have retired said they thought they could
:18:54. > :18:58.have got a better deal on their savings. I think there is a
:18:59. > :19:03.recognition that whilst we have done the right thing with pensioners on
:19:04. > :19:15.the state pension, we have brought in the triple lock, and many will
:19:16. > :19:20.bent on -- benefit from these changes. Why don't savers who are
:19:21. > :19:26.not pensioners get the same help? They have been hit by low interest
:19:27. > :19:31.rates as well. Those of working age, many of them say they have
:19:32. > :19:38.benefited from low interest rates was predominantly people in
:19:39. > :19:45.retirement have not had the benefit. Obviously people of working age will
:19:46. > :19:54.have benefited from the tax allowance so it is a myth to say the
:19:55. > :19:58.Budget was all about pensioners And yet even when the Office for Budget
:19:59. > :20:01.Responsibility takes into account your new measures, it still shows
:20:02. > :20:08.that over the next five years households will save less and less,
:20:09. > :20:14.indeed the savings ratio falls by 50%. You haven't done enough. One of
:20:15. > :20:19.the things we know is that the economy is picking up strongly, and
:20:20. > :20:22.as we have more confidence about the future they will be more willing to
:20:23. > :20:27.consume now, so without these measures it may be that the saving
:20:28. > :20:35.rate would have fallen further. We want people to save and spend, it is
:20:36. > :20:38.about getting the right balance As the economy picks up, people will
:20:39. > :20:44.want to spend more of their money and it is about getting the balance
:20:45. > :20:48.right. You make the point that if people are little profligate with
:20:49. > :20:52.their private pensions, they will have the state pension to fall back
:20:53. > :20:57.on and it will be higher than it has been, but it is also the case that
:20:58. > :21:03.in these circumstances they will still be entitled to housing benefit
:21:04. > :21:09.and even to perhaps some council tax benefit as well. Do you know by how
:21:10. > :21:14.much this could put the welfare bill up? We think the impact will be
:21:15. > :21:18.relatively modest because the sort of people who save for a pension and
:21:19. > :21:25.make sacrifices while they are at work are not the sort of people who
:21:26. > :21:29.get to 65 and decide to blow the lot for the great privilege of receiving
:21:30. > :21:31.council tax benefit or housing benefit. There will be people on the
:21:32. > :21:43.margins and benefit. There will be people on the
:21:44. > :21:46.who retire with some capital want to put some money away for their
:21:47. > :21:51.funeral. People like to save even into retirement so the myth of the
:21:52. > :22:00.spendthrift pensioner I don't believe. I think this has been
:22:01. > :22:06.rightly welcomed. Ever fancied a Lamborghini yourself? If you turned
:22:07. > :22:19.the camera around you would see my 2-door Corsa!
:22:20. > :22:22.What's your favourite thing about an election? Could it be the candidates
:22:23. > :22:25.ringing on your door while you're having dinner? The leaflets piling
:22:26. > :22:27.up on your doormat? Or the endless adverts aimed at hardworking
:22:28. > :22:31.families? Well, if you thought that was bad enough, then you might want
:22:32. > :22:34.to consider going overseas for the 2015 election because the parties
:22:35. > :22:39.are going to be aiming their message at you like never before. Adam's
:22:40. > :22:44.been to Worcester to find out more. One of the most famous political
:22:45. > :22:48.figures in history lived here, she is called Worcester woman. She was
:22:49. > :22:53.in her 30s, working class with a couple of kids, aspirational yet
:22:54. > :22:58.worried about quality of life. But she wasn't a real person, she was a
:22:59. > :23:02.label for the kind of voter new Labour were trying to reach and she
:23:03. > :23:09.was later joined by Mondeo man and several others. Doesn't that all
:23:10. > :23:16.seem a bit 90s? The technique, called segmentation, was used by
:23:17. > :23:20.George Bush in 2004. Then refined by Barack Obama. Rather than focusing
:23:21. > :23:26.on crude measures like cars and hometowns, they delved into the
:23:27. > :23:30.minds of voters. It is not just women, not just people who live in
:23:31. > :23:36.cities, but if you start to put together these groups of people you
:23:37. > :23:45.can even in an anecdote or way imagine who they are, what types of
:23:46. > :23:50.language and imagery might relate to them. We have been given access to a
:23:51. > :23:56.new polling model being used here by this firm, which is pretty close to
:23:57. > :24:00.the one we are told is being used by the Tories. It carves the country
:24:01. > :24:05.into six personality types, and we are trying it out on Worcester woman
:24:06. > :24:12.and wast of man. We are using an online quiz to work out who is in
:24:13. > :24:21.which segment. Meet new monk, Susie. She feels well represented. I
:24:22. > :24:27.know the Budget and the increases to childcare, I think at the moment I
:24:28. > :24:31.am fairly represented. This puts her in the category of optimistic
:24:32. > :24:37.contentment, people who feel they are doing OK. Terry, on the other
:24:38. > :24:45.hand, isn't happy about Britain today. Health and safety and all
:24:46. > :24:55.that! I hardly recognise the country a living in any more? Yes. Are you
:24:56. > :25:00.ready for the result? He is Mr comfortable nostalgia, they tend to
:25:01. > :25:05.favour the Tories and UKIP. They dislike the cultural changes they
:25:06. > :25:10.see as altering Britain for the worst. That sums me up. Tony is
:25:11. > :25:22.worried as well but feels much less secure. I look forward to the future
:25:23. > :25:32.with optimism or anxiety? Anxiety. Optimist or pessimist? Pessimist.
:25:33. > :25:38.His category is... You feel a bit insecure, you think the Government
:25:39. > :25:43.could probably help you more? Yes. Labour picks up a lot of these
:25:44. > :25:52.voters. This man is being asked to do more and more at work, but he is
:25:53. > :25:57.getting less and less. I am getting more towards the despair side.
:25:58. > :26:02.Things are getting tougher, generally? It puts him into the
:26:03. > :26:11.segment called long-term despair, people who feel left out. Finally,
:26:12. > :26:20.this is ever thoughtful Carol. I am a bit of an idealist. Her idealism
:26:21. > :26:25.makes her a cosmopolitan critic I am a liberal person. Apparently a
:26:26. > :26:31.lot of the media fit into this category as well. There is one group
:26:32. > :26:34.of voters we have not come across, people who show calm persistence.
:26:35. > :26:39.They hope things will get better but don't expect them to. They are
:26:40. > :26:44.coping, rather than comfortable Presumably they are all out of work.
:26:45. > :26:49.Which group are you win? You can take the poll on the BBC website,
:26:50. > :26:54.and in the coming weeks we will be doing our own polling using the six
:26:55. > :27:01.segments to see of the politicians really have worked out how we think.
:27:02. > :27:05.And as Adam said, if you want to try the survey for yourself, you can go
:27:06. > :27:07.to the BBC website and click on the link.
:27:08. > :27:17.And we're joined now by the pollster, Rick Nye. Welcome to
:27:18. > :27:23.Sunday Politics. We have had Worcester woman, Worcester man, is
:27:24. > :27:39.this any different? It is a recognition that or politician -
:27:40. > :27:47.all politics these days is like this. It enables them to cut them
:27:48. > :27:51.more finally. You think all politics is coalition politics, you think
:27:52. > :27:58.they have to put together these groups of people, not that the Lib
:27:59. > :28:03.Dems will always be in power? No, and if you listen to the coverage
:28:04. > :28:09.these days you might think it is about grumpy old men on the one hand
:28:10. > :28:13.with Guardian readers on the other. It is far more complicated than
:28:14. > :28:20.that, there is a lot of churning going on underneath which is driven
:28:21. > :28:24.by people's value systems. A lot of this has been pioneered in the
:28:25. > :28:28.United States, very sophisticated on their election techniques, and in
:28:29. > :28:34.Britain we are always the first to grab whatever the New Year will is
:28:35. > :28:39.from America. How do you think this will translate to this country? I
:28:40. > :28:44.think it means that if you are target photo you will still get the
:28:45. > :28:47.same of leaflets and people calling, but you will probably have different
:28:48. > :28:54.kinds of conversations because people on the other side, the party
:28:55. > :29:00.campaigners, will think they know more about you. Will I know who you
:29:01. > :29:05.are? If I am a party campaigner will I know, looking down the
:29:06. > :29:09.street, who fits into which category? You will be able to
:29:10. > :29:14.approximate that with all of the other data that you have gathered
:29:15. > :29:18.through polling, or doing local campaigning, that is the idea to
:29:19. > :29:25.make sense of this vast quantity of data people have about voters. We
:29:26. > :29:31.asked our panel to fill in your survey. Nick is optimistic
:29:32. > :29:36.contentment, 99%. He was 1% cosmopolitan critic, which is how he
:29:37. > :29:41.keeps his job at the Guardian. Polly's job could not be more
:29:42. > :29:45.secure, 100% cosmopolitan critics, and Janan Ganesh, optimistic
:29:46. > :29:48.contentment, which is what you would contentment, which is what you would
:29:49. > :30:05.expect from a financial Times columnist. What do you make of this
:30:06. > :30:15.technique? Why are you only 99? It sounds really clever. 95% of the
:30:16. > :30:19.population five years ago voted Labour or the Conservatives. We have
:30:20. > :30:25.got away from that. It is coalition politics. You need sophisticated
:30:26. > :30:32.methods. Presumably you must not lose touch with basic points. You
:30:33. > :30:37.said it was used in the US presidential elections. Wasn't there
:30:38. > :30:42.them moment emit Romney 's sweet when the initial response was, we
:30:43. > :30:45.did not know the sort of people voted. His next response was, we did
:30:46. > :30:50.did not know the sort of people not know these people existed.
:30:51. > :30:56.Unless you know about certain key demographics, you are wasting your
:30:57. > :31:03.time. Is it important in modern campaigning? I think it is useful
:31:04. > :31:13.because it is about attitude. We have got Mosaic. We have got Acorn.
:31:14. > :31:17.It does not tell us very much. What people think and feel may be
:31:18. > :31:22.different to their income. You can be quite a high earner and anxious.
:31:23. > :31:25.You can be quite a low earner and feeling aspirational and optimistic
:31:26. > :31:33.about the future. I think this does get something else. In days gone by,
:31:34. > :31:38.particularly in America, overwhelmingly, if you are in the
:31:39. > :31:41.better of segment, you would be Republican and the blue-collar
:31:42. > :31:46.workers and some academics and Liberals voted Democrat. In the last
:31:47. > :31:50.election, the richest 200 counties in America voted Democrat. That is
:31:51. > :31:56.an attitude thing. Income does not tell you how people will vote. There
:31:57. > :32:01.support for the Republicans. It is support for the Republicans. It is
:32:02. > :32:05.unavoidable. Add a time when people no longer identify with ideologies
:32:06. > :32:19.or class blocks, you have to go the temperament and lifestyle and
:32:20. > :32:21.manageable. In America there were 128 segments according to lifestyle
:32:22. > :32:26.manageable. In America there were and Outlook. Once you get to that
:32:27. > :32:31.stage, it becomes close to useless. We were talking about the budget
:32:32. > :32:39.earlier. What other polls saying about the budget? The lead of labour
:32:40. > :32:47.has been narrowed over the Conservatives. -- Labour. Osborne
:32:48. > :32:53.and Cameron as an academic team have always had a lead over Miller band
:32:54. > :32:55.and Balls. This week it is about economic management. -- over Mr
:32:56. > :33:11.Miller band. Thank you for being with us
:33:12. > :33:15.It's just gone 11:30am. You're watching the Sunday Politics. We say
:33:16. > :33:16.goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now for Sunday Politics
:33:17. > :34:09.The economic recovery is helping all Scotland. Coming up here in
:34:10. > :34:14.The economic recovery is helping all regions of the UK. Not just the
:34:15. > :34:18.south`east. That is according to the Conservative party chairman, Grant
:34:19. > :34:31.Shapps. He's a man who causdd storm this week by Tweeting this `dvert
:34:32. > :34:34.about bingo and the attacks, That was criticised as "condescending" `
:34:35. > :34:38.even by his own coalition p`rtners ` among them Redcar MP Ian Sw`les As
:34:39. > :34:41.for Mr Shapps, he was on a visit to Carlisle on Friday, and was
:34:42. > :34:44.unrepentant about his comments. We can all argue about whether the
:34:45. > :34:48.words are "they", "us", or whatever. Personally, I drink beer and I love
:34:49. > :34:51.a game of bingo. I just don't see why they think this is more
:34:52. > :34:54.important than talking about the long`term economic future of our
:34:55. > :34:57.country. Supporting sectors like bingo, by halving the tax, local
:34:58. > :35:01.pubs, where we are helping them to stay open. That is more important
:35:02. > :35:05.and we have had heard nothing about it from Labour at all. All they want
:35:06. > :35:14.to do is talk about the trivia, rather than the real issues. There
:35:15. > :35:18.has been criticism of this because the perception is that the lask
:35:19. > :35:25.slipped. It is what they, the proles, as in the north`east,
:35:26. > :35:29.perhaps, won. This is a storm in a teacup generated by the Labour
:35:30. > :35:32.Party. As we saw on Wednesd`y we had Ed Miliband who had nothing to say
:35:33. > :35:40.about the substance of the budget, and this is a distraction t`ctic to
:35:41. > :35:43.try and get away from the f`ct that they do not have a response to the
:35:44. > :35:49.budget. On the other hand, we saw George Osborne, the Conserv`tive
:35:50. > :35:57.Chancellor, give a good budget for savers, doers and makers. And they
:35:58. > :36:02.can see what he has done about the long`term economic prospects. You
:36:03. > :36:07.are completely relaxed about the bingo and beer? If you look at the
:36:08. > :36:10.substance, there was nothing wrong with halving the tax on bingo halls
:36:11. > :36:13.full stop they are under vast pressure. Some have come out and
:36:14. > :36:18.said that they will be able to remain open and with regard to the
:36:19. > :36:26.beer industry, it is not just 1p off pint, the loss of jobs dependent on
:36:27. > :36:31.it. The headlines have been pretty good on this, apart from th`t, on
:36:32. > :36:39.the budget, but not for Ed Liliband, for instance. It is churlish not to
:36:40. > :36:44.welcome some help for bingo and for the beer industry, but the Labour
:36:45. > :36:47.criticism has been more fundamental. This is a budget delivering for a
:36:48. > :36:53.certain section of the population, not benefit of the country, and in
:36:54. > :36:56.particular, it did not give us the investment that we need to see in
:36:57. > :37:04.the North East, if the economy is to grow. Well, let's look at the
:37:05. > :37:07.economic impact of the Budgdt in a bit more detail. The steel `nd
:37:08. > :37:10.chemical industries on Teesside will benefit, thanks to tax relidf on
:37:11. > :37:13.heavy energy users. But what about smaller manufacturers? Mich`el
:37:14. > :37:15.Tuddenham runs a business m`king kitchen and bathroom units hn
:37:16. > :37:18.Longtown near Carlisle. He believes the Budget will help create more
:37:19. > :37:26.opportunities for young people. We took a 16`year`old on just `fter the
:37:27. > :37:36.summer holidays last year. From a local high school. And with the
:37:37. > :37:39.national insurance being taken out forunder 21s, that is very positive
:37:40. > :37:42.for the younger generation, basically. And I think employers
:37:43. > :37:45.will react to that and bringing down the unemployment among the xounger
:37:46. > :37:49.generation will be a positive step. Energy costs, there has been a cut
:37:50. > :37:59.on the carbon tax. This feeds into the electricity costs, etc.
:38:00. > :38:02.Obviously, energy use, lighting edge banding, power units, ht is
:38:03. > :38:06.something that we look at closely. So, all in all, I was very positive
:38:07. > :38:09.towards the budget. So at ldast one business in Cumbria thinks the
:38:10. > :38:13.Chancellor's on the right lhnes But let's talk now to the regional
:38:14. > :38:17.secretary of the TUC, Beth Farhat. Many business organisations have
:38:18. > :38:22.welcomed this. Is this delivering for businesses and for young people
:38:23. > :38:27.looking for jobs? That is good, the work that they are doing to support
:38:28. > :38:31.small businesses are taking on more apprenticeships, but the budget put
:38:32. > :38:37.forward a couple of measures that we would support, more investmdnt and
:38:38. > :38:43.support for manufacturing. That comes at a time when we havd got
:38:44. > :38:48.3000 fewer managed `` manuf`cturing jobs in the north`east and the dead,
:38:49. > :38:55.in 2010. We have a little bht of time to wait for that because it is
:38:56. > :38:57.in the next Parliament. Raising of the personal allowance, this was
:38:58. > :39:01.tabled as a policy that is going to help low`paid workers, but the
:39:02. > :39:05.reality is that it will be liddle income and high income earndrs that
:39:06. > :39:10.will benefit from it most. The fundamental thing that the budget
:39:11. > :39:13.did not tackle was the living standards crisis. When I talk to
:39:14. > :39:18.workers, that is the real issue for them. It did not talk about the
:39:19. > :39:30.living wage and Fairplay. It talked about bingo and beer. `` fahrer pay.
:39:31. > :39:37.The lifting of the tax threshold has been significant and will lhft a lot
:39:38. > :39:40.of people out of tax. You c`nnot be churlish about that, even if it
:39:41. > :39:46.helps people further up the chain as well. It will give low incole
:39:47. > :39:53.earners to hundred pounds annually. And it will increase the VAT
:39:54. > :39:57.anthrax, so the devil is in the detail. Can I tell you something
:39:58. > :40:04.about north`east workers? They are ?1300 a year worse off in rdal
:40:05. > :40:09.terms. That is the equivalent to 23 average weekly shops, one ydar's
:40:10. > :40:13.worth of energy bills for the average household. But they are
:40:14. > :40:21.getting back to work, the fhgures suggest this week. No. Unemployment
:40:22. > :40:26.fell? Yes, but the quality of the jobs, zero hours contracts, eight
:40:27. > :40:30.out of ten private sector jobs are created in the cell. The jobs that
:40:31. > :40:35.we see created are predomin`ntly in low`paid sectors. We have got
:40:36. > :40:39.families on low`paid incomes with more money going out than they can
:40:40. > :40:52.coming in, relying on zero hours contracts and payday loans
:40:53. > :40:55.companies, so that is a problem There was a difference in the
:40:56. > :41:01.recovery. It is more accents rated in the South than in the North. Is
:41:02. > :41:06.anything being done to addrdss that? You referred to the unemploxment
:41:07. > :41:08.statistics. It fell in the north`east at the highest r`te
:41:09. > :41:12.compared to anywhere else in the country. It is important th`t we are
:41:13. > :41:20.seeing things moving in the right direction. We have got plenty more
:41:21. > :41:25.to do. What was in the budgdt specifically to help the north`east?
:41:26. > :41:27.The increase in the personal allowance takes 14,000 people in the
:41:28. > :41:32.north`east out of paying income tax altogether. It has delivered 1
:41:33. > :41:37.million people a tax cut. This will help relieve the pressure is on
:41:38. > :41:42.budgets. And freezing the ftel duty escalator, if Labour had bedn in
:41:43. > :41:48.government, the fuel duty would be 20p higher per litre. If we look at
:41:49. > :41:51.jobs as well, this is where the Labour Party does not appreciate,
:41:52. > :42:00.but people are better in work than out of work. We have seen 1.4
:42:01. > :42:06.million more jobs created. The point is, the cost of living and frozen
:42:07. > :42:10.fuel duty, you make beer and fuel duty, you bring people out of tax,
:42:11. > :42:16.surely that is the way to t`ckle it. Labour is proposing to freeze energy
:42:17. > :42:20.bills until 2017 and reduce business rates for small businesses, and give
:42:21. > :42:24.all young people are job through the jobs guarantee. We would be doing
:42:25. > :42:29.much more to support the economy. There were no measures in this
:42:30. > :42:36.budget to help the North East. No specific understanding... W`s of
:42:37. > :42:44.chemical industries and stedl industries on these side will
:42:45. > :42:49.benefit massively. `` lots of industries on Teesside. We still
:42:50. > :42:55.need specific measures to rdbalance the economy and support trahning. We
:42:56. > :42:59.are seeing support pouring `cross the piece. We are saying th`t some
:43:00. > :43:03.areas need more assistance to get the economy fully buoyant, than
:43:04. > :43:08.others, and we need to see lore investment in the North East. At the
:43:09. > :43:14.moment 3% of investment frol this government is coming into the
:43:15. > :43:20.north`east. Some businesses wanted investment in infrastructurd in the
:43:21. > :43:24.north`east. There was none. The manufacturing organisations have
:43:25. > :43:29.welcomed the ?7 million worth of investment. They have already said
:43:30. > :43:35.that that is when to generate both and potentially lots more jobs. So
:43:36. > :43:39.it doesn't matter about the infrastructure investment? What we
:43:40. > :43:44.saw the day after the budget, we have seen a touchy moving their
:43:45. > :43:48.headquarters to London, gendrating 750 jobs in the north`east. That
:43:49. > :43:51.could see the North East become a world centre for building Hhgh Speed