:00:39. > :00:45.Good morning. Welcome to The Sunday Politics. Just four days to go until
:00:46. > :00:50.election day, and be warned, coming to a street near you, a party leader
:00:51. > :00:53.on a charm offensive. They all want your vote in the European elections
:00:54. > :00:58.on Thursday, and in the local elections across England, too. Polls
:00:59. > :01:03.are all over the place this morning. Your vote could make a
:01:04. > :01:07.difference. This man is 11 points ahead in one poll, he has promised
:01:08. > :01:11.an earthquake on Thursday, but what then? Our Adam has braved the
:01:12. > :01:18.In the North East and Cumbria: How campaign trail, he has been asking
:01:19. > :01:21.In the North East and Cumbria: How will council cuts affect the outcome
:01:22. > :01:23.of this week's local elections? And disabled people in the region give
:01:24. > :01:25.evidence to a this week, a last look at the euro
:01:26. > :01:36.elections, and the 50th anniversary of the first elections to London's
:01:37. > :01:42.32 boroughs. I am in the studio, with those who think they have got
:01:43. > :01:48.all the big answers. Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh. So, it
:01:49. > :01:52.is the European elections for everybody on Thursday, local
:01:53. > :01:56.elections for England and a bit of Northern Ireland as well. They are
:01:57. > :02:01.the last elections before the big one, the 2015 general election. Some
:02:02. > :02:05.say that these European and local elections will not be much of a
:02:06. > :02:11.pointer to how the big one goes. But that will not stop political
:02:12. > :02:16.commentators and party gurus from examining them closely. So, what is
:02:17. > :02:18.at stake? Thursday May the 22nd is local elections and European
:02:19. > :02:42.Parliament elections. These local results should be known
:02:43. > :02:47.by Friday. In the European elections, all 751 members of the
:02:48. > :02:53.European Parliament will be elected across Europe. 73 MEPs will be let
:02:54. > :02:58.it by people living in the UK. But the results will not be announced
:02:59. > :03:03.until Sunday night, after voting has closed throughout the 28 member
:03:04. > :03:06.states of the EU. Nick Watt, we are in a position where the polls this
:03:07. > :03:10.morning cannot tell us what the outcome is going to be on Thursday,
:03:11. > :03:14.and the general election is still wide open - we really are in
:03:15. > :03:19.uncharted territory? Also it is difficult to know where we are,
:03:20. > :03:23.because there is that ComRes poll which shows an 11 point lead amongst
:03:24. > :03:26.those certain to vote for UKIP, and another poll in the Sunday Times
:03:27. > :03:35.showing that it is a much more slender lead for UKIP. But we know
:03:36. > :03:39.that will they win? We do not know, but clearly they will unsettle the
:03:40. > :03:42.major parties. Fall or five months ago, we assumed that the UKIP
:03:43. > :03:48.success would create panic in the Conservative Party, but that has
:03:49. > :03:52.been factored into David Cameron's share price. The Conservative Party
:03:53. > :03:57.is remarkably relaxed at the moment, and I wonder whether this time next
:03:58. > :04:00.week, when we have the results, whether the two political leaders
:04:01. > :04:05.who will be under pressure will be Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg. Nick
:04:06. > :04:10.Clegg, because they could go down from 12 MEPs to maybe just three or
:04:11. > :04:13.four. And Ed Miliband, because, one year before a general election, he
:04:14. > :04:19.should be showing that he is a significant, potent electoral
:04:20. > :04:24.force. So, they should all be worried about UKIP, but whereas a
:04:25. > :04:28.couple of months ago, we would all have said David Cameron was the one
:04:29. > :04:33.who should be worried, now, we are saying it is Mr Miliband and Mr
:04:34. > :04:36.Clegg? And of the two, I think it is Ed Miliband who should be worried.
:04:37. > :04:44.The Lib Dems are an incredibly resilient party. He described his
:04:45. > :04:54.own party as cockroaches, and incredible resilience! I think the
:04:55. > :05:00.Lib Dems are ready to take this one, but I think Labour are really wobbly
:05:01. > :05:04.at the moment. What UKIP has done, to England, it means that England
:05:05. > :05:08.has caught up with Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales, England
:05:09. > :05:14.now has a four party system, which makes it all the more uncertain what
:05:15. > :05:18.the outcome will be? Yes, but whether UKIP finish first or second,
:05:19. > :05:23.it will be the biggest insurgent event since the European elections
:05:24. > :05:29.began in 1979. People talk about the Greens in 1989, but I think they
:05:30. > :05:32.finished third. Were UKIP to win a national election or even finish
:05:33. > :05:35.runner-up, it would be truly historic. It is reflecting on
:05:36. > :05:42.something which is happening across Europe, pianist in Italy, Holland,
:05:43. > :05:48.France and in this country. -- populist parties. And it makes first
:05:49. > :05:53.past the post look absolutely ridiculous. You could be in a
:05:54. > :05:57.situation after the next general election where Labour do not get the
:05:58. > :06:00.largest percentage of the vote but they get the largest number of
:06:01. > :06:04.seats. First past the post works fairly if there are only two
:06:05. > :06:10.parties, but when there are four... We will talk more about that. Let's
:06:11. > :06:15.speak now to Suzanne Evans of UKIP. She is at Westminster. Now, UKIP
:06:16. > :06:19.claims that there is going to be an earthquake in British politics on
:06:20. > :06:25.Thursday. Suppose there is, what does UKIP then need to do to become
:06:26. > :06:29.a more grown-up, proper party? I think UKIP has very much become a
:06:30. > :06:35.grown-up, proper party. We have been around for 20 years. What we are
:06:36. > :06:39.going to be doing after the European elections, if we do cause this
:06:40. > :06:44.earthquake, and the polls are looking like we are going to, is we
:06:45. > :06:47.will be firmly looking towards 2015, getting our general election
:06:48. > :06:52.manifesto out, to keep those votes on board from the euro elections and
:06:53. > :06:54.putting forward common-sense policies which really will bring
:06:55. > :06:58.Britain back to the people. We want to be able to hold the balance of
:06:59. > :07:09.power come the general election. If we can do that then there will be a
:07:10. > :07:12.referendum. That will be our aim. You say you are a more grown-up
:07:13. > :07:17.party, but when you look at the stream of gaffes and controversies
:07:18. > :07:22.created by your candidates and members, I will not go into them
:07:23. > :07:26.this morning, at the very least, I would suggest you are needing a more
:07:27. > :07:30.robust system of selection? You could say the same for the other
:07:31. > :07:35.three parties, who have been around for a lot longer. They have got
:07:36. > :07:42.nothing like the embarrassments you had. I am afraid they had. Just this
:07:43. > :07:45.week, since Monday, we have had 17 Liberal Democrat, labour or
:07:46. > :07:49.Conservative councillors either arrested, charged or convicted on
:07:50. > :07:53.all manner of offences. In addition we have had 13 who have been
:07:54. > :07:57.involved in some kind of racist, sexist or homophobic incident. I am
:07:58. > :08:01.not saying I am proud of any of that. The whole of politics probably
:08:02. > :08:04.needs to be cleaned up, but I certainly do not think we are any
:08:05. > :08:10.worse than the other parties, who have much greater resources than we
:08:11. > :08:14.do. Those other parties are even putting people in power who they
:08:15. > :08:17.know have got criminal convictions or who have previously belonged to
:08:18. > :08:24.far right, fascist parties like the BNP. Can you continue to be a
:08:25. > :08:27.one-man band? The only time any other UKIP petition makes the
:08:28. > :08:34.headlines is when they say something loony or objectionable? We have a
:08:35. > :08:38.huge amount of talent in this party. We have fantastic spokespeople
:08:39. > :08:41.across the patch, the huge amount of expertise in the party. Inevitably
:08:42. > :08:48.the media focuses on Nigel Farage, who is a fantastic, charismatic
:08:49. > :08:52.leader. But believe me, there is a huge amount of talent. When we get
:08:53. > :08:58.our MEPs into power after the European elections, we will see many
:08:59. > :09:04.more of them I think on television and radio and in the newspapers. We
:09:05. > :09:11.are not a one-man band. Who runs your party? The party is run by
:09:12. > :09:14.Nigel Farage, our leader. But he spends all his time running between
:09:15. > :09:20.television studios and in and out of the pub! You would be amazed how
:09:21. > :09:25.much he does, and of course we have a National Executive Committee, like
:09:26. > :09:29.the other parties. So who runs it? The National Executive Committee, in
:09:30. > :09:34.conjunction with Nigel Farage, the MEPs, the spokespeople, it is a
:09:35. > :09:40.joint effort. Your Local Government Minister Stosur is, if you vote
:09:41. > :09:45.UKIP, you go on to pledge that your councillors will not toe the party
:09:46. > :09:53.line, how does that work? -- your local government manifesto says...
:09:54. > :09:57.On the main policies, they will toe the party line, because that is
:09:58. > :10:02.obviously what people will be voting for. It is no good putting forward a
:10:03. > :10:09.manifesto like the Lib Dems did on 2010 and going back on it. We have
:10:10. > :10:13.put forward a lot of positive -- a lot of policies at local government
:10:14. > :10:18.level, and those we will stick to. But when it comes to individual,
:10:19. > :10:22.local issues, say, a particular development or the closure of a
:10:23. > :10:27.school, whatever, UKIP then will vote what they think is in the best
:10:28. > :10:30.interests of the people in the borough, and not according to any
:10:31. > :10:36.party whip system. This plays out really well on the doorstep, I find.
:10:37. > :10:40.People do not want their politicians to be in the pockets of their
:10:41. > :10:44.party, putting party first, ahead of the people. You want people to vote
:10:45. > :10:48.to leave the European Union in a referendum - have you published a
:10:49. > :10:54.road map as to what would then happen? Yes, there will be a road
:10:55. > :10:59.map. The Lisbon Treaty for the first time gave us that exit opportunity.
:11:00. > :11:03.Have you published a road map? I am not the legal expert on this but
:11:04. > :11:07.there are ways in which you can come out of Europe fairly quickly. There
:11:08. > :11:13.is a longer you all as well. But have you published any of that
:11:14. > :11:17.detail? Not that I have read. But certainly there are ways to do it.
:11:18. > :11:21.We are the sixth strongest world economy, I think we are in a strong
:11:22. > :11:26.position having left the EU to be able to negotiate a very good trade
:11:27. > :11:33.deal with the European Union. It is what people voted for in 1975. What
:11:34. > :11:39.would be our exact status? It would be I think what people voted for
:11:40. > :11:43.back in 1975. An independent, sovereign country in a trade
:11:44. > :11:47.agreement, a very positive and valuable trade agreement with the
:11:48. > :11:51.European Union. I voted in that referendum, I remember it well, 1975
:11:52. > :11:59.involved the free movement of people 's... That is something which I do
:12:00. > :12:03.not think UKIP or the country wants. 70% of people now are deeply
:12:04. > :12:12.concerned about immigration. So it would not be 1975, then? Andrew, it
:12:13. > :12:15.sounds like you are complaining that we might have something which is
:12:16. > :12:22.better than 1975. I am just trying to find out what it is! That sounds
:12:23. > :12:25.like positive to me. We will negotiate a trade deal and all
:12:26. > :12:29.manner of issues, whatever is best for the British people. We want our
:12:30. > :12:34.sovereignty back, we want our country back. Would you be upset if
:12:35. > :12:39.a bunch of Rumanian men moved in next door to you? Where I live, I am
:12:40. > :12:44.surrounded by one and two-bedroom flats. If ten Rumanian men moved in
:12:45. > :12:48.next door to me, I would want to ask questions. That is very different
:12:49. > :12:58.from say a Robinho family moving in next door. I would think, are they
:12:59. > :13:02.being ripped off, are they up to no good or are they perhaps being
:13:03. > :13:06.trafficked by a gang master? So I think it would be of concern, and I
:13:07. > :13:09.do not think there is anything wrong with that, it is a humanitarian
:13:10. > :13:12.approach. That would be different from a family moving in who were
:13:13. > :13:17.learning to speak English, who wanted to contribute to the British
:13:18. > :13:19.economy. Maybe if your boss is watching, he will now have found out
:13:20. > :13:35.how to answer that question. Now, what is more glamorous, 24
:13:36. > :13:39.hours in the life of a counter-terrorism agent, or 12 hours
:13:40. > :13:47.in the life of Adam Fleming, on the campaign trail? I will let you make
:13:48. > :13:51.up your own mind. So, it is eight o'clock in the morning here in
:13:52. > :13:55.Westminster. Today's challenge is, how much campaigning for the local
:13:56. > :13:59.and European elections can we fit into 12 hours? See you back here at
:14:00. > :14:04.eight o'clock tonight. Wish me luck. With my cameraman and
:14:05. > :14:13.producer, we went to Thurrock in Essex first. I got a very, very warm
:14:14. > :14:23.welcome from Abe buoyant UKIP. They have never had this much attention.
:14:24. > :14:27.One candidate's misdemeanour ends up on the front page. But you have got
:14:28. > :14:31.Lib Dem candidates being convicted of racially aggravated assault, and
:14:32. > :14:35.that was not on the front pages of the newspapers. Houdini is fine but
:14:36. > :14:41.it must be applied evenly. Have you had to sack Thurrock UKIP members
:14:42. > :14:50.for dodgy tweets or anything? Oh, God, no. Next we head to meet a top
:14:51. > :14:53.Tory in a different area. We are heading to Eastbourne. But stuck in
:14:54. > :14:58.traffic. We are going to miss William Hague. We got there, just in
:14:59. > :15:04.time, to ask the really big questions. David Cameron went to
:15:05. > :15:09.Nando De Colo last week, where are you going to go for lunch? I do not
:15:10. > :15:15.even get time for lunch. I think something in the back of the car. We
:15:16. > :15:21.will go down the street and see what people have got to say. Even the
:15:22. > :15:22.Foreign Secretary has depressed the flesh at election time? Even the
:15:23. > :15:38.Foreign Secretary meets real people. The message William Hague impresses
:15:39. > :15:42.upon everyone he meets is that the Tories are the only party offering a
:15:43. > :15:51.referendum on our membership of the EU. He's off for lunch in the limo.
:15:52. > :15:59.I've got five minutes by the beach. This is the best thing about
:16:00. > :16:02.elections, lunch. Do you want one? And chips are weirdly relevant at
:16:03. > :16:05.our next stop - the Green Party battle bus which is parked in
:16:06. > :16:10.Ashford in Kent. What is special about this vehicle? It runs from
:16:11. > :16:21.chip fat oil so it is more friendly to the environment. But boss was
:16:22. > :16:26.boiling. The next stop is Gillingham to see Labour. Labour have just
:16:27. > :16:33.hired Barack Obama's election guru David Axelrod to help them craft
:16:34. > :16:41.their message. What does David Axelrod know about the people who
:16:42. > :16:48.live on the street? I know the local details but you handle those. Ed
:16:49. > :16:50.Miliband and his party have had to handle a few dodgy opinion polls
:16:51. > :16:54.lately, prompting some leadership speculation from one activist. Who
:16:55. > :17:07.is your favourite Labour politician? Ed Balls. Back in the car and we're
:17:08. > :17:12.flagging. Final stop, Southwark in south London. We are in the right
:17:13. > :17:19.place, this is Simon Hughes' Lib Dem taxi. The Lib Dems are campaigning
:17:20. > :17:26.as the party of in. But are they in trouble? Your party president said
:17:27. > :17:32.the party would be wiped out and lose its MEPs. Is that helpful? If
:17:33. > :17:37.he did say that, then no, that's not terribly helpful. And let's not
:17:38. > :17:42.forget, every London council is having elections too. I have 40
:17:43. > :17:48.minutes to get back to the office in Westminster, which calls for
:17:49. > :17:57.something drastic, like this. After 212 miles, but will be make it home
:17:58. > :18:10.for eight? We have made it, aided, 12 hours of pure politics. Happy
:18:11. > :18:16.elections, everyone. Adam Fleming impersonating Jack
:18:17. > :18:20.Bauer! Natalie Bennett is in our studio, welcome back. The Greens
:18:21. > :18:29.used to be the upcoming party in Britain, now it is UKIP. What went
:18:30. > :18:37.wrong? We are in a very good place, looking towards travelling our MEPs
:18:38. > :18:41.and we could be the fourth largest group in Parliament after these
:18:42. > :18:44.elections. More and more people are recognising we are the only party
:18:45. > :18:51.calling for real change, the only party saying we have two stop making
:18:52. > :18:58.poor, disadvantaged young people over the mistakes bankers. You have
:18:59. > :19:04.made a strong pro-environment stands synonymous with the politics of the
:19:05. > :19:09.left, why have you done that? Why should an equal minded Conservative
:19:10. > :19:16.vote for you? I think one of the reasons why many Conservatives, I
:19:17. > :19:19.met them in Chester where they are stopping coalbed methane
:19:20. > :19:25.exploration, lots of Conservatives are looking to vote for us beyond
:19:26. > :19:29.issues like fracking and the Green belt, and many of them are concerned
:19:30. > :19:34.about the fact we haven't reformed the banks. This morning we had the
:19:35. > :19:40.Bank of England chief coming out and saying we have a huge house price
:19:41. > :19:48.bubble and people recognise that many of the parties offering the
:19:49. > :19:57.same are not working. And yet the polls show that the hardline
:19:58. > :20:01.greenery is not winning. We are looking to travel our number of MEPs
:20:02. > :20:07.and we have people recognising that we have to change the way our
:20:08. > :20:10.economic 's, politics and society works so that everyone has
:20:11. > :20:17.sufficient resources within the limits of the one planet because one
:20:18. > :20:23.planet is all we have got. You want all electricity to be generated by
:20:24. > :20:28.renewables, is that right? So where would the electricity come from on
:20:29. > :20:35.days when the wind is not blowing? Most of the electricity is there. It
:20:36. > :20:39.is mature. We need to be hooked into a European wide grid, we need a
:20:40. > :20:45.smart grid that will allow for demand to be adjusted according to
:20:46. > :20:50.supply. So we would take French nuclear power, would we? We need to
:20:51. > :21:00.work with a partnership across Europe. We are being left behind and
:21:01. > :21:04.we are losing opportunities. 50% of German renewable electricity is
:21:05. > :21:14.owned by communities and it stays within communities, rather than the
:21:15. > :21:25.big six energy companies. So you have still got to take the French
:21:26. > :21:32.nuclear power. What we need to do... Nuclear is a dead technology,
:21:33. > :21:35.going down in the developed world. At the moment the Government
:21:36. > :21:41.proposes the most expensive proposal for Britain and yet the last two
:21:42. > :21:46.plans took 17 years to bring online, way too slow for what we need now.
:21:47. > :21:50.We know what the Green council would be like if you were to win more
:21:51. > :21:56.seats on Thursday because you run Brighton. Your own Green MP joined
:21:57. > :22:02.strikers against the council, the local Greens are at each other's
:22:03. > :22:07.throats, a council ridden with factionalism, attempts to raise
:22:08. > :22:11.council tax to 5%, attempted coups against the local Green leader by
:22:12. > :22:17.other Greens and you have had to bring in mediators. If you look at
:22:18. > :22:23.the life of people in Brighton and Hove, it has seen its visitor
:22:24. > :22:29.numbers go up by 50,000, it has become the top seaside resort in
:22:30. > :22:34.Britain, we have seen GCSE results going up significantly. These are
:22:35. > :22:39.the things affecting people's lives in Brighton and Hove. 60% of
:22:40. > :22:46.Brighton and Hove people think life is better and the Greens. We have a
:22:47. > :22:51.debate to be had from next year's election and perhaps we can have
:22:52. > :22:56.that debate next year. But you hold up Brighton as the way the city
:22:57. > :23:00.should be run? We have made huge progress, we have found money to be
:23:01. > :23:09.brought into the city to improve Green spaces. I was on the big ride
:23:10. > :23:14.in London yesterday, and we need to change our roads so they worked the
:23:15. > :23:22.people as well as cars. Which side of the picket line were you on in
:23:23. > :23:27.Brighton? With Caroline Lucas? I was in London, travelling around as I do
:23:28. > :23:35.most days. From Penzance to Newcastle and many areas in between.
:23:36. > :24:09.Probably a good move. Thank you. I'm joined now by the Conservative MP,
:24:10. > :24:19.the Lib Dem MP Simon Hughes and Sajid Javid. We want to see a
:24:20. > :24:23.European Union resolutely focused on the single market, free trade, and
:24:24. > :24:28.only we can bring about that change. Labour and Lib Dems are happy with
:24:29. > :24:35.the status quo, in fact they would like more integration, and a UKIP
:24:36. > :24:40.party can not deliver the change. Hilary Benn, at this stage positions
:24:41. > :24:44.usually romp home in European elections and no party has gone on
:24:45. > :24:51.to form a government without winning the European elections first. Now it
:24:52. > :24:57.suggests you could become second, you haven't handled UKIP very well
:24:58. > :25:01.either. There is a lot of alienation from politics around, globalisation
:25:02. > :25:07.has left some behind and people are concerned about that but UKIP will
:25:08. > :25:11.not provide the answer. Nigel Farage only talks about Europe. We are to
:25:12. > :25:16.hear it would not be in the interests of British people to come
:25:17. > :25:20.out of Europe. We do want a season change in Europe, for example we
:25:21. > :25:26.want longer periods when new member states come in. We don't think child
:25:27. > :25:31.tax credits should be paid to children not living in the UK, but
:25:32. > :25:38.Nigel Farage is also proposing to charge us when we see the GP, to
:25:39. > :25:42.halve maternity pay, and he wants a flat tax. UKIP is not the answer to
:25:43. > :25:47.the problems we face and we will continue to campaign as we have done
:25:48. > :25:57.to show that we are putting forward policies on energy prices, and in
:25:58. > :26:03.the end that is what people will look for. Simon Hughes, you will be
:26:04. > :26:11.lucky to come forth. The voters decide these things. Really? I never
:26:12. > :26:13.knew that. My response to the UKIP question is that they get support
:26:14. > :26:20.because they have never been in power, they are never likely. A bit
:26:21. > :26:30.like the way you used to never get into power. I accept that, but now
:26:31. > :26:34.we are in government. The reality is that laws made in Brussels, we make
:26:35. > :26:40.together by agreement, and it is the case from the Commons figures that
:26:41. > :26:49.only seven out of 100 laws are made in Brussels. Actually they have been
:26:50. > :26:54.shown not to be the only ones. 14 out of 100. If we were to come out
:26:55. > :27:04.of Europe, we would seriously disadvantage our economics and the
:27:05. > :27:09.jobs... 3 million jobs depend on the European Union. If the Conservatives
:27:10. > :27:14.comes third or even a poor second, it will show that people don't
:27:15. > :27:19.really trust your promise about European referendum. They have been
:27:20. > :27:23.there before, they don't trust you. What we have already shown, despite
:27:24. > :27:28.being in coalition with Liberal Democrats, we have shown progress on
:27:29. > :27:32.Europe, we have vetoed a European treaty when people said we
:27:33. > :27:36.wouldn't, we have cut the European budget which is something Liberal
:27:37. > :27:41.Democrats and Labour MEPs voted against, we cut it by ?8 billion.
:27:42. > :27:50.But overall we are still paying more. We have still cut it. We have
:27:51. > :27:57.taken Britain out of the bailout fund that Labour signed us up to. We
:27:58. > :28:01.are now going to take that same energy to Europe and renegotiate our
:28:02. > :28:11.relationship and let the British people decide in a referendum. Why
:28:12. > :28:14.has Ed Miliband become such a liability for your party? Even your
:28:15. > :28:20.own MPs are speaking out against him. If you look at the polls, we
:28:21. > :28:26.have been in the lead almost consistently. The voters will
:28:27. > :28:31.decide. Ed Miliband is a decent man, but what really marks him out is
:28:32. > :28:39.that he is thinking about the problems the country faces. Simon
:28:40. > :28:48.and Sajid both support the bedroom tax, we will scrap it. Ed Miliband
:28:49. > :28:57.said the energy market doesn't work for consumers, we will freeze energy
:28:58. > :29:06.prices while we change the system. So why are his ratings even lower
:29:07. > :29:10.than Nick Clegg's? They will be voted for next year in the general
:29:11. > :29:15.election, and if I were David Cameron I would ask myself this
:29:16. > :29:19.question - the economy is recovering, why is it that David
:29:20. > :29:24.Cameron and the Conservatives have been behind in the polls? Because in
:29:25. > :29:28.the end the big choice in British politics is between the two parties
:29:29. > :29:34.that say, if we sought the deficit everything is fine, and Labour who
:29:35. > :29:39.say that there are things about this country, the insecurity that has
:29:40. > :29:45.given rise for support for UKIP, and we are the ones talking about doing
:29:46. > :29:49.something about zero hours contracts. The more your leader
:29:50. > :29:59.bangs on about Europe, the worse your poll ratings get. He is out of
:30:00. > :30:04.the kilter with British people. It may not be a majority of people who
:30:05. > :30:09.think that we ought to stay in the European Union, but when you speak
:30:10. > :30:12.to people about it, people understand that we are better in
:30:13. > :30:17.them out. In the elections on Thursday, that is not about who runs
:30:18. > :30:20.Britain, that is for next year. In terms of the local councils, we have
:30:21. > :30:25.battles on the ground, like in my community, where we are trying to
:30:26. > :30:30.take it back from the Labour Party. Affordable housing has just not been
:30:31. > :30:36.delivered. We have delivered that in office and we had admitted to that.
:30:37. > :30:42.-- we are committed to that. Labour have actually demolished homes. So,
:30:43. > :30:47.people want more affordable homes. One issue which is behind people's
:30:48. > :30:50.antipathy towards immigrants is that they cannot get the affordable
:30:51. > :30:55.housing they need. We as a government have delivered more
:30:56. > :30:58.affordable housing in this Parliament -170,000 new properties
:30:59. > :31:10.earning and more, over the next three years. That does not work out
:31:11. > :31:16.that very many per year. Overall housing is a lot less than it was in
:31:17. > :31:20.2006. Let me tell you, under the Labour government, we lost nearly
:31:21. > :31:26.half a million affordable homes. Fewer built than under Mrs Thatcher
:31:27. > :31:31.or under the coalition. What is your last ditch message to the millions
:31:32. > :31:39.of Tory voters thinking of voting UKIP on Thursday? First, what I
:31:40. > :31:42.would say is, Ed Miliband also said that we should not tackle the
:31:43. > :31:46.deficit, it was not a priority. As a result of our resolute focus, we now
:31:47. > :31:51.have the fastest growing economy in the developed world, and more people
:31:52. > :31:54.employed than ever before. I am sure you will have more chance to say
:31:55. > :31:59.that at the general election, what is the answer to my question? We
:32:00. > :32:03.need a Europe which is focused on free trade and the single market.
:32:04. > :32:08.Labour and Lib Dems are happy with the status quo, we are not. We are
:32:09. > :32:15.the only party which can bring about change, UKIP cannot bring about any
:32:16. > :32:21.change. Hilary Benn, why not have a referendum on Europe? If you think
:32:22. > :32:25.like Nigel Farage that you should get out of Europe, I do not agree
:32:26. > :32:30.with him, because Britain's future lies in Europe. My message simply
:32:31. > :32:35.would be, vote for a party which wants to tackle insecurity in the
:32:36. > :32:39.workplace, to give more security to the 9 million people who are now
:32:40. > :32:45.privately renting, build more homes. What Simon has just said about the
:32:46. > :32:47.coalition's housing record, it has been appalling, the lowest level
:32:48. > :32:53.since Stanley Baldwin was Prime Minister. With Labour, you have got
:32:54. > :32:56.a party which will freeze energy prices, more childcare, policies
:32:57. > :33:02.which directly address the problems which people face. I think the
:33:03. > :33:05.public will realise that. UKIP offers absolutely nothing at all for
:33:06. > :33:11.the future of the country. You used to be in favour of a referendum? We
:33:12. > :33:14.are in favour, we voted for one, we have legislated for one. The next
:33:15. > :33:18.time there is a change between Britain and Europe, in the
:33:19. > :33:25.relationship, there will be a referendum. We have supported that.
:33:26. > :33:32.We voted for it. You would obviously want to vote yes in any referendum.
:33:33. > :33:38.We would. But if you had one now, it would be for coming out or staying
:33:39. > :33:40.in, and you are going to wait until there is another step son shall
:33:41. > :33:50.transfer of powers to Brussels, and then say to people, either vote for
:33:51. > :33:56.this substantial transfer or vote to leave! Of course they will vote to
:33:57. > :34:01.leave! Yes, we are not natural partners with the Conservatives, but
:34:02. > :34:05.we do not want to be distracted at the moment by a referendum in the
:34:06. > :34:12.future in relation to Europe. Because what we have done is built
:34:13. > :34:15.our own economy back. That has been the priority. We do not want
:34:16. > :34:20.artificial priorities. The Tories want an artificial date plucked out
:34:21. > :34:25.of the air for their own advantage. We say, let's get on with being
:34:26. > :34:28.positive about being in Europe, and many people on the doorstep
:34:29. > :34:33.absolutely understand that. Yesterday, the Energy Minister said
:34:34. > :34:36.that he thought the party would be willing to campaign for a British
:34:37. > :34:42.withdrawal from the EU if there was not a successful negotiation, a
:34:43. > :34:52.successful repatriation, do you agree with that? First of all, I am
:34:53. > :34:58.very optimistic... I got that I am going into these negotiations with
:34:59. > :35:04.confidence but Michael Fallon is one of your ministerial colleagues, he
:35:05. > :35:08.said that if we cannot get a deal on substantial repatriation, then the
:35:09. > :35:13.party should be willing to campaign for a British withdrawal - do you
:35:14. > :35:16.agree? My view is that I am confident we will get a deal, and
:35:17. > :35:21.then we will put it to the British people. But you will have to take a
:35:22. > :35:24.line. If you do not get substantial repatriations, will you side with
:35:25. > :35:30.Michael Fallon all with the Prime Minister, who seems to want to stay
:35:31. > :35:34.in regardless? I may only have been in politics for four years, but I am
:35:35. > :35:37.not going to ask that kind of hypothetical question. Every
:35:38. > :35:42.question I ask is hypothetical, that is the fascination of the programme!
:35:43. > :35:47.I go into these negotiations with complete confidence. If you look at
:35:48. > :35:54.our track record, it suggests we will be successful. Hilary Benn,
:35:55. > :36:00.what is the difference between your attitude and that of the Lib Dems
:36:01. > :36:03.towards a referendum? We have been very clear that if it is proposed at
:36:04. > :36:08.sometime in the future, further powers would be transferred, then,
:36:09. > :36:14.we would put that to the British people in a referendum. That is the
:36:15. > :36:19.Lib Dem position. This is our position, which I am planing to you.
:36:20. > :36:22.It would be an in-out referendum. We would only agree to a transfer of
:36:23. > :36:27.powers if we thought that it was in the interest of Britain. But we
:36:28. > :36:34.believe that Britain's place remains and should remain in Europe, for
:36:35. > :36:41.economic reasons. But we also want to see some changes in our
:36:42. > :36:44.relationship with Europe, and electing Labour MEPs on Thursday
:36:45. > :36:51.will be a way of boosting that argument. In what way is everything
:36:52. > :36:57.you have just said not entirely sell my must with the Lib Dem position? I
:36:58. > :37:03.am not worried about that. -- entirely synonymous. It is the
:37:04. > :37:06.dividing line between us and UKIP, because they somehow believe that
:37:07. > :37:10.Britain leaving the European Union would be good for our economy. Truth
:37:11. > :37:16.is, it would be really bad, because so many jobs depend on being part of
:37:17. > :37:28.a large market in an increasingly globalised world. I have got one
:37:29. > :37:32.more question for you on the locals. We seem to have lost our connection
:37:33. > :37:36.with Leeds. What is the single most important reason that people should
:37:37. > :37:40.vote for you in the local election? Because taxpayers' money is just
:37:41. > :37:44.that, it does not belong to the politicians, and we can do a lot
:37:45. > :37:47.more and get more for less with taxpayers money. If you look at
:37:48. > :37:51.Conservative councils up and down the country, most of them have not
:37:52. > :37:56.been raising council tax, they have been getting more for less, and that
:37:57. > :37:59.is what people deserve. We will produce the maximum amount possible
:38:00. > :38:03.of affordable housing to meet the housing needs of Britain, instead of
:38:04. > :38:10.the richest minority having flats and houses that nobody can afford.
:38:11. > :38:17.We seem to have lost Hilary Benn. I can answer for him. I will do it -
:38:18. > :38:21.he would certainly say, vote Labour. You are watching The Sunday
:38:22. > :38:24.Politics. We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who now leave us for
:38:25. > :38:38.Hello and a warm sunny welcome to Sunday Politics Scotland.
:38:39. > :38:42.Hello and a warm sunny welcome to the part of the show where we look
:38:43. > :38:47.at the political stories that matter here in the North East and Cumbria.
:38:48. > :38:50.It's just four days until we go to the polls and this week we're
:38:51. > :38:54.concentrating on the elections for our local councils. With me in the
:38:55. > :38:57.studio is Lord Shipley, who ran Newcastle Council in the heady days
:38:58. > :39:01.when the Lib Dems were in charge. Today he's in the Lords. I'm also
:39:02. > :39:04.joined by the Labour MP for North Tyneside Mary Glindon and for the
:39:05. > :39:08.Conservatives, the MP for Skipton and Ripon, Julian Smith. Also coming
:39:09. > :39:11.up: Disabled people who've criticised the Government's new work
:39:12. > :39:16.capability assessments give evidence to a Parliamentary inquiry in
:39:17. > :39:19.Newcastle. But let's start on the campaign trail and the Prime
:39:20. > :39:23.Minister was at the Port of Tyne in South Shields on Friday. It came in
:39:24. > :39:27.the week that unemployment in the North East went up, the only region
:39:28. > :39:30.in the country to see an increase on the last quarter. But David Cameron
:39:31. > :39:35.was in upbeat mood pointing to the region's economic successes. The
:39:36. > :39:38.last unemployment figures were disappointing but in the past
:39:39. > :39:41.quarter and the past year, the percentage of people employed in the
:39:42. > :39:46.North East was growing faster than any other part of the country. Van
:39:47. > :39:52.London, the Southeast. We are having a recovery. I wanted to be further
:39:53. > :39:55.and faster will stop Nissan are making more cars than the whole of
:39:56. > :40:00.Italy. We are fabricating oil rigs on the Tyne just a few miles away
:40:01. > :40:04.from here. We have got a recovery underway but we have got to
:40:05. > :40:09.safeguarded by sticking to the long`term economic plan. Mary
:40:10. > :40:12.Glindon, despite that rising unemployment, more jobs are being
:40:13. > :40:18.created than anywhere else in the country and a recovery is happening.
:40:19. > :40:23.Nobody doubts that the coverage is happening but I think one of the
:40:24. > :40:26.issues that the Prime Minister was, the biggest issue is that they have
:40:27. > :40:31.not invested enough to get the skills we need to get more young
:40:32. > :40:38.people employed. We still have 850,000 young people not employed.
:40:39. > :40:44.In my constituency, we have 25% of people, almost 25% earning less than
:40:45. > :40:48.the living wage. Jobs on the Tyne are fantastic. We want more of them.
:40:49. > :40:52.People on low paid jobs and zero while contracts, it is not giving
:40:53. > :40:59.people enough money to live on. `` zero hour contracts. As Mary Glindon
:41:00. > :41:03.says, the quality of the jobs might not be up to that much. And the idea
:41:04. > :41:11.that we are narrowing the gap with the South does not wash. I think it
:41:12. > :41:17.is narrowing a fit. It goes down everywhere else. `` a little bit.
:41:18. > :41:21.What has happened could simply be a temporary blip. Employment is also
:41:22. > :41:29.rising. The critical thing is that the eye that sector, especially in
:41:30. > :41:42.high`tech industries, these are creating more jobs. The high`tech ``
:41:43. > :41:46.the high`tech sector. There are many friendships in the private sector.
:41:47. > :41:49.If there is not clear evidence that that North`South divide has
:41:50. > :41:55.narrowed, would that not be a failure? It would not be. London has
:41:56. > :42:02.been growing. London has investment from outside the UK. It has become a
:42:03. > :42:05.world city. It is helping pass. Because tax revenue coming in to
:42:06. > :42:14.government is being generated in London and redistributed. `` helping
:42:15. > :42:19.us. The gap will narrow in the course of the next few years. When I
:42:20. > :42:22.pushed the prime minister on whether or not he was being complacent about
:42:23. > :42:26.the North East, he said the same thing as before, the regional growth
:42:27. > :42:33.fund, which has been criticised, and lower taxes. It has not narrowed the
:42:34. > :42:39.divide. I think we need to look at long`term statistics. They show that
:42:40. > :42:41.there is around 40,000 new private sector jobs which have been created
:42:42. > :42:47.under the Government. We have doubled apprenticeships. We have
:42:48. > :42:53.?350 million of regional growth fund money coming in. The investment from
:42:54. > :43:02.foreign companies. Then why has unemployment gone up? As we turn the
:43:03. > :43:06.economy around, in some situations it does not go as quick as you would
:43:07. > :43:12.have liked. But the long`term trend is good. I do not accept the talking
:43:13. > :43:14.down of the local economy. We have got big opportunities to attract
:43:15. > :43:20.business. We are creating more businesses. 11,000 businesses have
:43:21. > :43:26.set up since the last election. You are accused of talking the region
:43:27. > :43:30.down. I want the best for the region to address the issues and the big
:43:31. > :43:34.issue is employers on the Tyne and other employers, we look at these
:43:35. > :43:38.futuristic industries, they are telling us that the skills gap is
:43:39. > :43:42.not being met. The issue is how to do that and we hope that might be
:43:43. > :43:53.resolved. There's local elections across large
:43:54. > :43:57.parts of of the region, from Craven and Harrogate in North Yorskhire to
:43:58. > :44:00.Carlisle in the west, as well as the whole of Tyne and Wear. But whatever
:44:01. > :44:03.party runs your town hall, councillors have all been grappling
:44:04. > :44:06.with the same problem, dealing with big cuts to their budgets. So how
:44:07. > :44:09.will those cuts affect the way people choose to vote on Thursday?
:44:10. > :44:12.Mark Denten went to Labour`run Newcastle to find out. Marching in
:44:13. > :44:16.the streets. Protests outside council meetings and even in the
:44:17. > :44:20.pool. People in Newcastle have been getting well stirred up. Angry about
:44:21. > :44:27.the Coalition. Sometimes angry at Labour councils. Hopping mad about
:44:28. > :44:31.cuts. This man used to swim at the city pool in Newcastle six days per
:44:32. > :44:37.week. It has now shut after a round of council cuts. It was brilliant.
:44:38. > :44:42.It is a community that used to come and everybody knew each other.
:44:43. > :44:50.Seemingly, the council decided that it was not viable. The council has
:44:51. > :44:54.lost more than ?97 million in grants since 2010. But the local Labour
:44:55. > :44:59.council has had to decide where to make the cut, closing the pool,
:45:00. > :45:02.axing the arts budget and cutting jobs. The question for the voters at
:45:03. > :45:08.the election is who is the villain of the piece? Ministers in Whitehall
:45:09. > :45:13.several hundred miles away, or the local council just up the road? To
:45:14. > :45:17.the critics, the Liberal Democrats are tainted, part of a Coalition
:45:18. > :45:23.hell`bent on starving local councils of funding. But they say Labour have
:45:24. > :45:28.come from places. They had a budget of three of ?450 million over three
:45:29. > :45:32.years. A fraction of that, 3 million would have done at the swimming
:45:33. > :45:36.pool, it would have allowed a private operator to come in and run
:45:37. > :45:41.it, running costs would be small in relation to the city budget. It is a
:45:42. > :45:45.which was wrong. The man in the middle of making the cuts says that
:45:46. > :45:51.clearly it is the Government's fault. They have faced
:45:52. > :45:54.disproportionately big cuts. In the lifetime of the parliament we should
:45:55. > :45:58.have had ?38 million more than we have had. Because of the ideology of
:45:59. > :46:02.the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats. Eric Eccles has a
:46:03. > :46:07.strategy to shift the blame onto local councils, who have two front
:46:08. > :46:13.up to local residents. `` Eric Pickles. What about a party that has
:46:14. > :46:19.not had any councillor since 1996, the Conservatives irrelevant? There
:46:20. > :46:23.are a lots of people that vote Conservative. Look at what will
:46:24. > :46:27.happen in the election. And it is influence that we can have in the
:46:28. > :46:31.party in government. The most important thing is to protect front
:46:32. > :46:34.line services. And what is the potential for significantly larger
:46:35. > :46:42.savings to be made from the way that the councils are run? Hoping to row
:46:43. > :46:49.from a spec to a major player, UKIP, say that they would cut waste. We
:46:50. > :46:55.should focus on front line services and retaining them by reducing
:46:56. > :46:58.backroom services. You have got virtually no track record in local
:46:59. > :47:05.government and none in this city. Why should voters trust you to make
:47:06. > :47:09.the cuts and balance the budget? We have got an attendance record
:47:10. > :47:13.unparalleled in government. We have got people with a sensible business
:47:14. > :47:18.background and they know how to run large organisations effectively.
:47:19. > :47:23.While politicians argue, the swimming baths remain shut. Who does
:47:24. > :47:30.this lifelong Labour voter blame? Labour. If we want an easy target.
:47:31. > :47:33.After all the noisy cuts and protest, people will go to the polls
:47:34. > :47:38.in four days. Some services have been taken away and voters might
:47:39. > :47:43.well be deciding who to punish. We have got a lifelong Labour voter and
:47:44. > :47:48.he has looked at the facts and he has set your party is to blame. Does
:47:49. > :48:01.that worry you? It is sad to hear somebody saying that. I am not
:48:02. > :48:04.represented by Newcastle, and so... Your party has been moaning about
:48:05. > :48:07.the cuts. Somebody has been personally affected handsets that
:48:08. > :48:13.and that must suggest your message has not come across. I think we have
:48:14. > :48:16.got our message in North Tyneside. Newcastle is not my area. But the
:48:17. > :48:20.council leader made it clear that they have made hard decisions. The
:48:21. > :48:26.decisions they have made I cannot personally comment on. They need to
:48:27. > :48:30.do more to get to that gentleman and people like him. What the cuts have
:48:31. > :48:36.done and how they have had to make hard decisions, I am glad we the
:48:37. > :48:40.council tax frozen... I am sure they will be a dispute from the
:48:41. > :48:44.Conservatives about your record. But it is not just Labour councillors
:48:45. > :48:47.complaining. Conservatives in North Yorkshire are disappointed with the
:48:48. > :48:54.budget cuts. Do you accept councils have taken too much of a hit? I do
:48:55. > :49:00.not. I don't from a humble background. `` I've built up. I
:49:01. > :49:07.accept it has been tough but there is more that we can do. We can share
:49:08. > :49:10.services. We can, like in Harrogate and Selby, work more closely
:49:11. > :49:16.together. We can do joint working with the private sector. Your
:49:17. > :49:24.colleagues are just moaning minis? No, I said it has been a tough time.
:49:25. > :49:28.But there is more creativity... Have you told the county council leaders
:49:29. > :49:31.that they can be more creative? I think that they would find me quite
:49:32. > :49:38.challenging in that I feel they can do more. I feel they can do more.
:49:39. > :49:42.When there was a bit more money around, you were in the council, and
:49:43. > :49:47.people are saying that it would be sweetness and light and libraries
:49:48. > :49:51.would still be open? ?20 million of additional money came to the Council
:49:52. > :49:55.for Public health. It would take 3 million to put the city pool right.
:49:56. > :50:00.As we heard on the film. But Labour decided to spend 18 million doing at
:50:01. > :50:03.the Civic Centre in the next few years. I think the public has a
:50:04. > :50:10.right to expect where the priorities should live. You are not suggesting
:50:11. > :50:13.councillors have had a good deal? Schools are being protected with the
:50:14. > :50:16.next ?100 million with the pupil Renee in this region. The national
:50:17. > :50:24.health service has been protected and pensions. Local government has
:50:25. > :50:28.had a fairly tough time. But the fact of the matter is, choices can
:50:29. > :50:33.be made, as we have heard in the film, and if you can spend ?18
:50:34. > :50:41.million on the Civic Centre, why can you not... Mary Glindon, I suppose
:50:42. > :50:46.what is puzzling is that they have been protests as we have seen. But
:50:47. > :50:50.we do not see waves of anger which will necessarily cause problems for
:50:51. > :50:56.the Coalition parties in this region. In North Tyneside I think,
:50:57. > :51:04.we have only been back in power one year, and we came into power with
:51:05. > :51:09.the Tories stopping the building of homes for older people and 800 new
:51:10. > :51:15.houses. There were a lot of things out there that the Tories did in
:51:16. > :51:19.North Tyneside. We have been canvassing in Tynemouth. They hoped
:51:20. > :51:23.to return to cancel. You knock on the door now and this has happened
:51:24. > :51:28.to me and others and they have said, we are not too bothered how we will
:51:29. > :51:32.vote. When you see the former Tories might stand, they will be out and
:51:33. > :51:37.voting again. That shows how strongly they feel. We will see what
:51:38. > :51:41.happens. Would it mean very much if you have more council seats in
:51:42. > :51:46.Harrogate and Craven if you cannot win in Newcastle and Gateshead? We
:51:47. > :51:49.need as many councillors in the region as possible. Conservatives
:51:50. > :51:56.have shown that they run councils efficiently. You cannot get enough
:51:57. > :51:59.elected. We want more in the councils. What's the garment is
:52:00. > :52:04.trying to do is encourage councils to create jobs and build homes and
:52:05. > :52:10.keep the money themselves. `` government. We have got a new home
:52:11. > :52:16.is bonus and we are giving them business rates to spend on more
:52:17. > :52:18.investment. I'm sure we will try and defend your seeds in Newcastle but
:52:19. > :52:26.you have got a dearth of candidates in South Tyneside and Sunderland.
:52:27. > :52:37.``. You are not the main opposition. `` see is. `` seats. We are still
:52:38. > :52:41.challenges. In the North East and Cumbria. It is not quite like that.
:52:42. > :52:48.We do want to concentrate resources. We are defending a number
:52:49. > :52:53.of them, 18 altogether. I am pretty certain we will hold them. And there
:52:54. > :52:55.is a chance of gaining. You might be surprised. We will see what happens
:52:56. > :53:04.on Thursday and Friday. One of the parties that will be
:53:05. > :53:08.watched most closely in these elections is the BNP. Five years ago
:53:09. > :53:12.they won a European Parliamentary seat in the North West and took
:53:13. > :53:15.nearly 9% of the vote in the North East. Since then they've faced
:53:16. > :53:18.internal divisions and a decline in support. The party is fighting in
:53:19. > :53:22.the Euro elections, but doesn't have a single local election candidate in
:53:23. > :53:24.Cumbria or the North East. So have other anti EU parties like UKIP
:53:25. > :53:27.stolen the party's clothes? They have not at all. They have used
:53:28. > :53:32.rhetoric which suits them taken from us. They are a different party
:53:33. > :53:38.compared to the BNP. They have got a different immigration policy. We are
:53:39. > :53:42.not ex`Tory members. And soon enough they will jump into bed with Labour
:53:43. > :53:45.or the Conservatives. And when they do, the bubble will burst and they
:53:46. > :53:50.will be bust Michael Liberal Democrats. `` like the Liberal
:53:51. > :53:58.Democrats. The BNP. Now who is fit to work and
:53:59. > :54:01.who should qualify for benefits? In most cases the answer to that
:54:02. > :54:04.question rests upon a test, the work capability assessment. It's made
:54:05. > :54:06.headlines recently as Atos, the private company which has been
:54:07. > :54:09.carrying them out, ended its contract early. It follows criticism
:54:10. > :54:11.from disability campaigners who complained about long delays and
:54:12. > :54:14.branded the tests "ridiculously harsh and unfair". Well, a Select
:54:15. > :54:17.Committee of MPs is investigating the whole issue and this week they
:54:18. > :54:21.brought their inquiry to Tyneside. As Emily Unia reports, it was a
:54:22. > :54:30.chance for some disabled people to finally have their say. She is 28
:54:31. > :54:34.and registered blind. She had to have a work capability assessment in
:54:35. > :54:38.2012 to find out if she was able to claim employment and support
:54:39. > :54:42.allowance. It was a bad experience. She has come to Newcastle to tell
:54:43. > :54:48.MPs investigating the system why she thinks it is unfair. It is very
:54:49. > :54:53.specific. I think that the attitudes are very specific. They do not take
:54:54. > :54:59.into account the visual impairment and other conditions can vary from
:55:00. > :55:05.day to day. If I had a bad night sleep, my site might be worth the
:55:06. > :55:11.next day. She had a chance to tell her story to the work and pensions
:55:12. > :55:17.committee. I am registered blind. I have in since I was born. Up until a
:55:18. > :55:23.few years ago I was on incapacity benefit. And I went onto the ESA. I
:55:24. > :55:31.had jobs when I was younger. When I was 19. But because of confidence
:55:32. > :55:36.issues and things like that I have not worked for a long time. They are
:55:37. > :55:41.investigating the process carried out by Atos but why come to
:55:42. > :55:44.Newcastle? Because we have not been here before has a committee. We were
:55:45. > :55:49.keen to get out of London and make sure that we were not just hearing
:55:50. > :55:53.metropolitan voices. The voices of people around the country, at the
:55:54. > :55:58.sharp end, directly affected, we want to hear about. And in
:55:59. > :56:03.particular to the changes to welfare and employment allowance and of the
:56:04. > :56:10.work capability assessment. We need to fight back against this system.
:56:11. > :56:13.Public hostility has been high. It announced in February it would end
:56:14. > :56:18.its contract early after reports of staff receiving death threats. It
:56:19. > :56:22.has not yet been decided who will run the system when the contract
:56:23. > :56:28.finishes. But whoever takes over, she hopes that it will be a fairer
:56:29. > :56:32.system. Julian Smith, what groups have said is that it is more about
:56:33. > :56:37.disqualifying people from benefits rather than a genuine desire to get
:56:38. > :56:43.people back working. I think we are all very sensitive to people that
:56:44. > :56:49.are suffering in these reports that we have had. The government is doing
:56:50. > :56:56.everything that it can to make it as good as possible. We have had for
:56:57. > :57:02.reviews of the testing. The current one will be completed soon. Would
:57:03. > :57:06.you accent mistakes have a mate? It is tough and we have to do better. I
:57:07. > :57:08.think that they need to have improved tests for long`term
:57:09. > :57:14.conditions. Blindness, mental health. These areas need to be
:57:15. > :57:20.tested I think more effectively. But I think in general policy brought
:57:21. > :57:23.hundreds of thousands of people off the benefit list and into work and
:57:24. > :57:29.that is good for them and good for their families. They seem to have
:57:30. > :57:34.given Atos the push here. They recognise that everything was not
:57:35. > :57:41.right but are you satisfied? For all their criticism about Atos they did
:57:42. > :57:45.renew their contract. And we are seeing the consequences. My
:57:46. > :57:48.caseworker went along to the Select Committee and listens to terrible
:57:49. > :57:53.stories about what has happened. It is seven months before people even
:57:54. > :57:59.get their test. It is a yes`no answer. There is no way of
:58:00. > :58:03.personalising it. We are finding so many appeals are coming forward. You
:58:04. > :58:08.are still on a limited amount of money waiting for the appeal. It is
:58:09. > :58:11.very demeaning for people. They are trying to put that right. The
:58:12. > :58:16.principal that Julian Smith is saying that it is better to get
:58:17. > :58:19.people back working for their own self`respect rather than leaving
:58:20. > :58:24.them languishing on benefits for the rest of their lives. When Labour
:58:25. > :58:27.started to look at incapacity benefit the purpose was to get
:58:28. > :58:31.people back working that needed to get into work and that was the
:58:32. > :58:37.purpose. Not to cut benefits in the way this government have done. Lets
:58:38. > :58:40.be honest, it was a bit convenient to lead people there at times
:58:41. > :58:48.instead of restoring their dignity and getting them to work. I do not
:58:49. > :58:53.agree. Before I was an MP, we thought the Government were being
:58:54. > :58:56.harsh to people on incapacity benefit. I do think Labour tried
:58:57. > :59:01.their hardest. The issue now is that people are suffering because this is
:59:02. > :59:07.failing them. And many people are saying, get rid of it and start
:59:08. > :59:13.again. Are you proud of what the Liberal Democrats have been doing on
:59:14. > :59:18.benefits? Not at all. But remember, Atos was appointed by the devious
:59:19. > :59:25.Labour Gutman. It was right it was renewed in 2012 because I think they
:59:26. > :59:30.hoped it could get it right. `` the previous Labour government. There is
:59:31. > :59:37.something seriously wrong with the system. Thank you for that
:59:38. > :59:41.discussion and I am sure we will come back to that. Now, what does a
:59:42. > :59:44.Government Minister keep in his pocket? A hankerchief? A smartphone?
:59:45. > :59:55.Or a bit of Teesside's political history? Well keep watching as Mark
:59:56. > :59:58.answers that question, along with the rest of the week's political
:59:59. > :00:01.news in 60 seconds. Rory Stewart has got a new job. Other MPs have chosen
:00:02. > :00:05.him as the new chairman of the defence Select Committee. Who will
:00:06. > :00:09.replace this man has the mail of Middlesbrough when he leaves the top
:00:10. > :00:14.job that you mark they have selected Dave but as the candidate for the
:00:15. > :00:17.elections next year. He has used a West Minster hall debates to voice
:00:18. > :00:22.his concerns about ambulance delays in the North East. Greg Clark, born
:00:23. > :00:28.and bred in Middlesbrough had a bit of a secret for the Newcastle MP
:00:29. > :00:32.Nick ran, calling on re`establishing a minister for the North East.
:00:33. > :00:36.Sometimes I carry around a medallion. It was struck to
:00:37. > :00:41.commemorate a statue to the first Maher of Middlesbrough. I must say
:00:42. > :00:44.we are still waiting for a move to direct the statue under the formal
:00:45. > :00:49.regional Minister for the North East. I think we need to power local
:00:50. > :00:52.leaders and what we are doing is the right way around. We are very
:00:53. > :01:02.interested in the medallion... Goodness knows what else Ministers
:01:03. > :01:08.are hiding in their pockets. And that's about it from us. If you want
:01:09. > :01:12.to keep across the local election results and you don't mind a late
:01:13. > :01:16.night, then join David Dimbleby and me on Thursday evening from 11.35
:01:17. > :01:19.here on BBC One. I'll be in Carlisle with a panel of guests chewing over
:01:20. > :01:23.the regional results with regular updates throughout the night. I
:01:24. > :01:26.promise not to nod off if you don't. And of course we'll be back here
:01:27. > :01:28.next Sunday morning at eleven. For now, it's over
:01:29. > :01:40.thank you very much indeed. Back to Andrew.
:01:41. > :01:46.Welcome back. Politicians always insist in public that opinion polls
:01:47. > :01:51.do not matter. Even though their own parties each spend a small fortune
:01:52. > :01:57.on private polling. If they take them seriously, so do we! Let's take
:01:58. > :02:01.a closer look. First up, how the votes might fall for the European
:02:02. > :02:06.Parliament. Back in January, Labour looked set to finish first. By
:02:07. > :02:11.April, UKIP had edged into the lead. According to today's poles, Nigel
:02:12. > :02:16.Farage's party is either down into place, or has soared ahead. Both
:02:17. > :02:29.cannot be right. It is a similar picture for the general election.
:02:30. > :02:36.Labour's lead has been cut back by the Tories. This is the most
:02:37. > :02:43.unpredictable general election in a long time. It keeps us in a job! We
:02:44. > :02:47.are joined now by the managing director of the pollsters, ComRes.
:02:48. > :02:51.Welcome to the programme. While the polls all over the place on the
:02:52. > :02:54.European election? We are trying to do two things, figure out who is
:02:55. > :03:00.going to be voting, and how they are going to be voting. I think a lot of
:03:01. > :03:05.the polls are predicting quite high turnout. They are looking at more
:03:06. > :03:10.than 50% turnout, which is simply not can be the case. So, what we are
:03:11. > :03:14.doing is predicting it based on those who are ten out of ten,
:03:15. > :03:21.certain to vote, and it really benefits UKIP, it benefits them
:03:22. > :03:29.democratically, demographically, with the older age profile, who are
:03:30. > :03:35.going to vote. Another poll gives them only a one-point lead, so, come
:03:36. > :03:38.the results coming out, you are either going to look away ahead of
:03:39. > :03:43.your time or very stupid? Absolutely. That is the job of
:03:44. > :03:48.pollsters. Somebody has to be wrong. Ultimately, we were spot on in 2009,
:03:49. > :04:03.and we are hoping to be spot on on Thursday. So you were spot on on
:04:04. > :04:11.voting intention in 2009? Yes. What does the indications of what is now
:04:12. > :04:18.a four party system mean, does it change the nature of your methods?
:04:19. > :04:23.It changes how we look at the polls, how we look at what is going to
:04:24. > :04:26.happen as a result of the vote. Predicting the number of seats is
:04:27. > :04:30.becoming more and more important and more difficult to do, because
:04:31. > :04:37.distribution is becoming fundamentally important. Because it
:04:38. > :04:42.is for parties? That's right. . Does the polling give us any evidence to
:04:43. > :04:48.try to settle the matter of whether UKIP votes are coming from? Yes. We
:04:49. > :04:51.know that over 50% of the UKIP vote share is coming from the
:04:52. > :04:55.Conservatives come people who did vote Conservative in 2010. But
:04:56. > :05:00.actually, the other 50% is coming from a wide range of different
:05:01. > :05:04.sources. And what we are seeing is that ultimately, every single
:05:05. > :05:08.establishment party should be worried, because the people voting
:05:09. > :05:13.for UKIP are the people that really do not like politics at the moment.
:05:14. > :05:19.They are wanting people to speak on their behalf, so it affects all of
:05:20. > :05:22.them. There is evidence that there is now a move of some working-class
:05:23. > :05:28.Labour votes to UKIP as well? That's right. That is what I mean about the
:05:29. > :05:32.establishment vote, the people that they can really reach out to, who
:05:33. > :05:38.are really interested in things like immigration, in those single issues,
:05:39. > :05:42.where they do not feel the political parties of the mainstream are
:05:43. > :05:48.representing them. I would suggest that for the European elections,
:05:49. > :05:56.where turnout is low, ComRes may be right or wrong, but likely to vote
:05:57. > :06:00.would seem to be the yardstick. I would say that is true in almost any
:06:01. > :06:04.European election apart from this one. Because there has been so much
:06:05. > :06:07.attention on this election, because of UKIP and the probably do that
:06:08. > :06:12.they will win second, I wonder whether it is now such a big topic
:06:13. > :06:17.of conversation, the subject of Nigel Farage, that people who would
:06:18. > :06:21.otherwise talk a good game about voting UKIP but do not show up on
:06:22. > :06:27.the day are this time around likely to show up on the day? I am not
:06:28. > :06:35.entirely convinced by that. We underestimate how many people are
:06:36. > :06:38.completely disengaged by politics. I think it is very easy for us to
:06:39. > :06:43.think, and I agree that by any other standards, this is the most coverage
:06:44. > :06:48.a European election has ever had in Britain, but still, most people
:06:49. > :06:54.don't care. Instinctively, Nick, you would think, if you are a UKIP
:06:55. > :06:57.photo, if you have made that choice, then you would probably be more
:06:58. > :07:02.motivated to go and vote on Thursday? I am sure that is right.
:07:03. > :07:09.Also, the publicity that Nigel Farage has had. And also, as
:07:10. > :07:14.Catherine says, people are attracted to UKIP because they are annoyed
:07:15. > :07:17.with the established parties. If you have made that big decision to do
:07:18. > :07:20.it, then you will probably do it. The really big question which we
:07:21. > :07:26.want to take out of these elections is, how many people who have left
:07:27. > :07:30.the established parties, left the Conservative Party, in these
:07:31. > :07:36.elections on Thursday, how many of them will stick with UKIP and how
:07:37. > :07:42.many of them will go back? Nigel Farage is very confident, he is
:07:43. > :07:46.saying that 60% of those certain to vote UKIP will stick with UKIP. If
:07:47. > :07:50.that happens, it is a real problem for Downing Street. Downing Street
:07:51. > :07:53.are basically saying that many Tories will have a fling with UKIP
:07:54. > :08:00.but they will return to the marital home next year. You do two sorts of
:08:01. > :08:04.polling, for the European elections, and for the general election, which
:08:05. > :08:08.may be more relevant to the local election voters, but what is the
:08:09. > :08:14.answer to his question? We do not know at the moment. We when you ask
:08:15. > :08:19.people how likely they are to vote in the same way, they are thinking
:08:20. > :08:22.that actually, I am going to vote in exactly the same way at the general
:08:23. > :08:27.election, they are not going to say, I am going to split my vote. I think
:08:28. > :08:31.the key point is, what happens in the Euros. We have a fixed term
:08:32. > :08:36.parliament, which means momentum is crucial. What comes out of the Euros
:08:37. > :08:41.will be a statement about how well UKIP can last for the next year, or
:08:42. > :08:47.indeed, if it comes second, it is about momentum and feeling about the
:08:48. > :08:51.parties. I do not think we can tell yet. If UKIP does well, there could
:08:52. > :08:56.be some leadership crises we will have to cover. I want to look at a
:08:57. > :09:11.couple of the headlines on the screen. Now, it seems, as you can
:09:12. > :09:14.see from the Mail, Mr Miliband could be in some trouble. The Labour MP
:09:15. > :09:20.for Rochdale talking about the mantra of misery which is Labour's
:09:21. > :09:26.policy is not going down well. And there are also rumbles about, if Mr
:09:27. > :09:30.Clegg comes fourth or even fifth in the European elections, that there
:09:31. > :09:37.will be a plot to remove him. There are not many names behind that plot
:09:38. > :09:44.yet, but Vince Cable does get an honourable mention! Not that he is
:09:45. > :09:48.plotting, but he could take over! If Labour comes a poor second, and the
:09:49. > :09:54.Tories are third, and Nick Clegg is nowhere, there is a
:09:55. > :10:00.Clevedon-Miliband agenda, isn't there? It will be very different for
:10:01. > :10:08.each man. The worst thing that could happen to Labour is if Nick Clegg
:10:09. > :10:11.loses his job, because he will be replaced by somebody substantially
:10:12. > :10:17.to the left of him, you would have to assume, someone like Tim Farron.
:10:18. > :10:20.I think it is unlikely that David Laws Danny Alexander, the two
:10:21. > :10:25.prominent figures who are to the right of him, would win the
:10:26. > :10:31.leadership. If it is someone who is quite a way to the left of Nick
:10:32. > :10:33.Clegg, then some voters might find the party a more attractive
:10:34. > :10:38.proposition. Which is why the Tories want to hold on to Nick Clegg.
:10:39. > :10:44.Absolutely. But I think you are right, there is a really big bubble
:10:45. > :10:48.for Ed Miliband here. The second big thing, I do not know if you saw the
:10:49. > :10:53.photo opportunity this week, Boris Johnson strolling through a garden
:10:54. > :10:58.with David Cameron, they got off the chew one-stop early just to
:10:59. > :11:03.appreciate the spring sunshine. But where are the shadow cabinet? I hear
:11:04. > :11:07.rumours of a politician called Yvette Cooper, but I do not know
:11:08. > :11:12.what she has been up to recently. And Rachel Reeves and Andy Burnham,
:11:13. > :11:16.all of these big hitters are not lashing themselves to the mast of
:11:17. > :11:20.the Labour election campaign. And some of these big hitters are
:11:21. > :11:23.immensely talented, Rachel Reeves, Chuka Umunna, these guys are really
:11:24. > :11:28.talented. You get the impression that they are watching this as you
:11:29. > :11:32.say and biding their time. Ed Miliband has bet the farm on this
:11:33. > :11:37.calculation that there has been this rupture between the rise in wages
:11:38. > :11:44.and the rise in inflation, although that is now beginning to slow. The
:11:45. > :11:46.calculation he is making is that in the 2012 presidential election, Mitt
:11:47. > :11:51.Romney was ahead on many of the economic indicators, but Barack
:11:52. > :11:57.Obama won because he said, I am on your side. He has bet the farm on
:11:58. > :12:01.that. But there is a big difference between Miliband and Barack Obama,
:12:02. > :12:05.which is that Barack Obama was elected in 2008 after the crash, so
:12:06. > :12:10.everything he did was about rescue. The problem for Ed Miliband and Ed
:12:11. > :12:14.Balls is that they were in power when the crash happened, so it is
:12:15. > :12:19.difficult to make that comparison. Labour is nip and tuck with the
:12:20. > :12:24.Tories, or ahead by a small amount - Mr Miliband's personal ratings are
:12:25. > :12:27.much worse than what David Cameron's were at the same stage in
:12:28. > :12:34.the political cycle, does that matter? I think personal ratings do
:12:35. > :12:40.matter, particularly if things like Ukraine gained more prominence in
:12:41. > :12:44.the media. It is a question of who you want as your statesman. But on
:12:45. > :12:47.the economy specifically, actually, the economic ratings in terms of
:12:48. > :12:54.confidence in the leader has not changed. That has not changed for
:12:55. > :13:02.years now. It is pretty stable. Actually, the narrowing of the polls
:13:03. > :13:07.could be due to the usual narrowing about 12 months out from the
:13:08. > :13:11.election, and Labour really need to use the momentum. Thank you for
:13:12. > :13:15.that. Plenty to talk about after you all go to the polls on Thursday.
:13:16. > :13:19.There will be tonnes of election coverage and results on the BBC,
:13:20. > :13:23.Thursday night, Friday, and of course, Sunday night, when the
:13:24. > :13:27.European results come out. Daily Politics is back on BBC Two tomorrow
:13:28. > :13:31.lunchtime. I will be back here next Sunday at 11 o'clock as usual for
:13:32. > :13:34.The Sunday Politics. Remember, if it is Sunday, it is The Sunday