:00:39. > :00:44.Good morning, welcome to the Sunday Politics. Senior Liberal Democrats
:00:45. > :00:51.say the public has lost trust in Nick Clegg. They call for him to go
:00:52. > :00:55.after the local election meltdown. And before the likely Europa rove a
:00:56. > :01:00.catastrophe tonight. Labour and Tories struggled to cope with the
:01:01. > :01:04.UKIP insurgency as Nigel Farage hosts his success and declares the
:01:05. > :01:10.In the North East and Cumbria: We're henhouse.
:01:11. > :01:12.In the North East and Cumbria: We're live with reaction to all the local
:01:13. > :01:16.election results. And the market town where residents
:01:17. > :01:17.are voting on whether to break away from Teesside and join
:01:18. > :01:22.hall spread, the Liberal Democrats disappeared, UKIP failed to show.
:01:23. > :01:31.More analysis in just over half an hour.
:01:32. > :01:39.Cooped up in the Sunday Politics henhouse, our own boot should --
:01:40. > :01:43.bunch of headless chickens. Nick Watt, Helen Lewis, Janan Ganesh. The
:01:44. > :01:48.Liberal Democrats lost over 300 councillors on Thursday, on top of
:01:49. > :01:52.the losses in previous years, the local government base has been
:01:53. > :01:55.whittled away in many parts of the country. Members of the European
:01:56. > :01:58.Parliament will face a similar comment when the results are
:01:59. > :02:04.announced tonight. A small but growing chorus of Liberal Democrats
:02:05. > :02:08.have called on Nick Clegg to go. This is what the candidate in West
:02:09. > :02:16.Dorset had to say. People know that locally we worked
:02:17. > :02:20.incredibly hard on their councils and as their MPs, but Nick Clegg is
:02:21. > :02:27.perceived to have not been trustworthy in leadership. Do you
:02:28. > :02:34.trust him? He has lacked bone on significant issues that are the core
:02:35. > :02:36.values of our party. This is how the party president
:02:37. > :02:44.responded. At this time, it would be foolish
:02:45. > :02:48.for us as a party to turn in on ourselves. What has separated us
:02:49. > :02:52.from the Conservatives is, while they have been like cats in a sack,
:02:53. > :02:58.we have stood united, and that is what we will continue to do. The
:02:59. > :03:03.major reason why is because we consented to the coalition, unlike
:03:04. > :03:13.the Conservatives. We had a vote, and a full conference.
:03:14. > :03:20.Is there a growing question over Nick Clegg's leadership? Different
:03:21. > :03:24.people have different views. My own view is I need to consult my own
:03:25. > :03:28.activists and members before coming to a conclusion. I am looking at
:03:29. > :03:33.holding a meeting for us to discuss the issue. I have been told by some
:03:34. > :03:36.people they do not think a meeting is required, they think he should
:03:37. > :03:41.stay, and other people have decided he should go. As a responsible
:03:42. > :03:47.Democrat, I should consult the members here before coming to my
:03:48. > :03:52.conclusions. What is your view at the moment? I have got to listen to
:03:53. > :04:00.my members. But you must have some kind of you. Because I have an open
:04:01. > :04:06.mind, I do not think he must stay, I am willing to say I have not made my
:04:07. > :04:10.mind up. From a news point of view, that is my official position. I can
:04:11. > :04:17.assure you there is not much news in that! I said earlier I am not going
:04:18. > :04:22.to say he must go must stay, I am consulting my members. But you must
:04:23. > :04:26.have some kind of view of your own before you have listened to your
:04:27. > :04:31.members. There are people who are wrongfully sanctioned and end up
:04:32. > :04:36.using food banks, I am upset about that, because we should not
:04:37. > :04:40.allow... I do not mind having a sanctioning system, that I get
:04:41. > :04:45.constituents who are put in this position, we should not accept that.
:04:46. > :04:51.I rebel on the issue of a referendum on membership of the EU. I am also
:04:52. > :04:56.concerned about the way the rules have been changed in terms of how
:04:57. > :05:02.parents are treated in their ability to take children to funerals out of
:05:03. > :05:06.school time. There are questions about the leader's responsible T for
:05:07. > :05:11.those policies. Nick Clegg has made it clear he is a staunch
:05:12. > :05:16.pro-European, he wants the Liberal Democrats to be in, he does not want
:05:17. > :05:20.a referendum, if you lose a chunk of your MEPs tonight, what does that
:05:21. > :05:26.say about how in June you are with written public opinion? There are
:05:27. > :05:30.issues with how you publish your policies. I do not agree 100% with
:05:31. > :05:36.what the government is doing or with what Nick Clegg says. I do think we
:05:37. > :05:42.should stay within the EU, because the alternative means we have less
:05:43. > :05:48.control over our borders. There is a presentational issue, because what
:05:49. > :05:51.UKIP want, to leave the EU, is worse in terms of control of borders,
:05:52. > :05:58.which is their main reason for wanting to leave, which is strange.
:05:59. > :06:02.There are debate issues, but I have got personal concerns, I do worry
:06:03. > :06:08.about the impact on my constituents when they face wrongful sanctions.
:06:09. > :06:13.You have said that. A fellow Liberal Democrat MP has compared Nick Clegg
:06:14. > :06:18.to a general at the Somme, causing carnage amongst the troops. I am
:06:19. > :06:23.more interested in the policy issues, are we doing the right
:06:24. > :06:27.things? I do think the coalition was essential, we had to rescue the
:06:28. > :06:32.country from financial problems. My own view on the issue of student
:06:33. > :06:38.finance, we did the right thing, in accordance with the pledge, which
:06:39. > :06:40.was to get a better system, more students are going to university,
:06:41. > :06:46.and more from disadvantaged backgrounds. But there are issues.
:06:47. > :06:51.But Nick Clegg survive as leader through till the next election? It
:06:52. > :06:56.depends what odds you will give me! If you are not going to give me is,
:06:57. > :07:03.I am not going to get! If you listen to John hemming, he has got nothing
:07:04. > :07:10.to worry about. He does have something to worry about, they lost
:07:11. > :07:15.300 seats, on the uniform swing, you would see people like Vince cable
:07:16. > :07:19.and Simon Hughes lose their seats. But nobody wants to be the one to
:07:20. > :07:25.we'll be nice, they would rather wait until after the next election,
:07:26. > :07:32.and then rebuild the party. Yes, there is no chance of him walking
:07:33. > :07:35.away. Somebody like Tim Farron or Vince Cable, whoever the successor
:07:36. > :07:39.is, though have to close the dagger ten months before an election, do
:07:40. > :07:44.they want that spectacle? If I were Nick Clegg, I would walk away, it is
:07:45. > :07:49.reasonably obvious that the left-wing voters who defect had
:07:50. > :07:54.towards the Labour Party in 2010 will not return while he is leader.
:07:55. > :08:00.And anything he was going to achieve historically, the already has done.
:08:01. > :08:05.Unlike David Miliband, sorry, Ed Miliband or David Cameron, he has
:08:06. > :08:09.transformed the identity of the party, they are in government. Had
:08:10. > :08:12.it not been for him, they would have continued to be the main protest
:08:13. > :08:18.party, rather than a party of government. So he has got to take it
:08:19. > :08:23.all the way through until the election. If he left now, he would
:08:24. > :08:28.look like he was a tenant in the conservative house. What we are
:08:29. > :08:34.seeing is an operation to destabilise Nick Clegg, but it is a
:08:35. > :08:37.Liberal Democrat one, so it is chaotic. There are people who have
:08:38. > :08:42.never really been reconciled to the coalition and to Nick Clegg, they
:08:43. > :08:50.are pushing for this. What is Nick Clegg going to do, and Tim Farron?
:08:51. > :08:55.-- what is Vince Cable going to do? Vince Cable is in China, on a
:08:56. > :09:03.business trip. It is like John Major's toothache in 1990. What is
:09:04. > :09:08.Tim Farron doing? He is behind Nick Clegg, because he knows that his
:09:09. > :09:11.best chances of being leader are as the Westland candidate, the person
:09:12. > :09:20.who picks up the mess in a year. Vince Cable's only opportunity is on
:09:21. > :09:23.this side of the election. But you say they are not a party of
:09:24. > :09:31.government, but what looks more likely is overall the -- is no
:09:32. > :09:35.overall control. You might find a common mission looking appealing.
:09:36. > :09:40.They could still hold the balance of power. A lot of people in the Labour
:09:41. > :09:47.Party might say, let's just have a minority government. 30 odds and
:09:48. > :09:53.sods who will not turn up to vote. If they want to be up until 3am
:09:54. > :09:57.every morning, be like that! When you were in short trousers, it was
:09:58. > :10:05.like that every night, it was great fun! The Liberal Democrats will not
:10:06. > :10:11.provide confidence to a minority government, they will pull the plug
:10:12. > :10:18.and behave ruthlessly. Does Nick leg lead the Liberal Democrats into the
:10:19. > :10:22.next election? Yes. Yes. Yes. I am sorry, Nick Clegg, you are
:10:23. > :10:26.finished! We will speak to Paddy Ashdown in the second part of the
:10:27. > :10:30.show to speak about the Liberal Democrats. The UKIP insurgency could
:10:31. > :10:33.not deliver the promised earthquake, but it produced enough shock waves
:10:34. > :10:39.to discombobulated the established parties. They are struggling to work
:10:40. > :10:48.out how to deal with them. We watched it all unfold.
:10:49. > :10:53.out how to deal with them. We Behind the scenes of any election
:10:54. > :10:58.night is intensely busy. Those in charge of party strategy and
:10:59. > :11:02.logistics want their people focused, working with purpose and rehearsed
:11:03. > :11:07.to make sure their spin on the results is what viewers remember and
:11:08. > :11:11.take on board. A bit of a buzz of activity inside the BBC's studio,
:11:12. > :11:17.kept and primed for the results. What this does not show due is the
:11:18. > :11:22.exterior doubles up for hospital dramas like Holby City, there are
:11:23. > :11:25.doorways that are mock-ups of accident and emergency, but the
:11:26. > :11:29.electorate will discover which of the parties they have put into
:11:30. > :11:33.intensive care, which ones are coming out of recovery and which
:11:34. > :11:38.ones are in rude health. We joined David Dimbleby. Good evening,
:11:39. > :11:44.welcome to the BBC's new election centre. When three big beasts become
:11:45. > :11:49.for on the political field, things have changed. Eric Pickles says we
:11:50. > :11:55.will be seen off next year, we will see you at Westminster! This party
:11:56. > :12:00.is going to break through next year, and you never know, we might even
:12:01. > :12:04.hold the balance of power. Old messages that gave voters in excuses
:12:05. > :12:07.to go elsewhere on the ballot paper exposed the older players to
:12:08. > :12:11.questions from within their ranks. In the hen house of the House of
:12:12. > :12:16.Commons, the fox that wants to get in has ruffled feathers. The reason
:12:17. > :12:22.they have had amazing success, a rapid rise, partly what Chuka Umunna
:12:23. > :12:28.says about being a repository, but they have also managed to sound like
:12:29. > :12:32.human beings, and that his Nigel Farage's eight victory. For some
:12:33. > :12:37.conservatives, a pact was the best form of defence. It would be
:12:38. > :12:40.preferable if all members of UKIP and voters became Tories overnight.
:12:41. > :12:47.That seems to be an ambitious proposition. Therefore, we need to
:12:48. > :12:53.do something that welcomes them on board in a slightly different way.
:12:54. > :12:57.Labour had successes, but nobody but they're wizards of Spain was
:12:58. > :13:01.completely buying a big success story. Gaffes behind the scenes and
:13:02. > :13:07.strategic errors were levelled at those who have managed the campaign.
:13:08. > :13:11.They have played a clever game, you shuffle bedecked around, and if UKIP
:13:12. > :13:16.does quite well but not well enough, that helps Labour get in. That kind
:13:17. > :13:22.of mindset will not win the general election, and we saw that in the tap
:13:23. > :13:28.ticks and strategy, and that is why, on our leaflets for the European
:13:29. > :13:32.elections, we chose deliberately not to attack UKIP, that was a bad
:13:33. > :13:38.error. Not so, so somebody who has been in that spotlight. If you look
:13:39. > :13:42.at the electoral maths, UKIP will still be aiming at the Tories in a
:13:43. > :13:46.general election. They are the second party in Rotherham, Labour
:13:47. > :13:50.will always hold what the room, it is safe, there is no point being
:13:51. > :13:55.second in a safe seat. UKIP have taken Castle Point, a Tory seat they
:13:56. > :14:01.will target. The question for the next election, can they make a
:14:02. > :14:06.challenge? The Tories will be under the gun from UKIP. The substance of
:14:07. > :14:11.these results is UKIP not in government, they do not have any
:14:12. > :14:16.MPs, they do not run a single Council, at dismissing them ceased
:14:17. > :14:17.to be an option. The question is, who will they heard most and how do
:14:18. > :14:39.you smoke the keeper's threat? Joining me now, day about and
:14:40. > :14:46.Patrick O'Flynn. Do you agree not enough was done for the elections?
:14:47. > :14:49.No, we have very good results around Hammersmith and Fulham, Croydon,
:14:50. > :14:59.Redbridge, and we picked off council wards in Haringey meaning that Lynne
:15:00. > :15:05.Featherstone and Simon Hughes worked on. The Ashcroft polling shows that
:15:06. > :15:14.in key marginals, we are well ahead and on course to win in 2015. I will
:15:15. > :15:18.be putting Mr Ashcroft's poll to Eric Pickles shortly. On the basis
:15:19. > :15:24.of the local elections your national share of the vote would be just 31%,
:15:25. > :15:28.only two points ahead of the Tories, only two points ahead of Gordon
:15:29. > :15:35.Brown's disastrous performance in 2010. Why so low? National share is
:15:36. > :15:44.one thing but I am talking about what we are doing in the key
:15:45. > :15:50.marginals. Clearly some were taken away from others like Rotherham but
:15:51. > :15:55.we have got many voters back. You are only two points better than you
:15:56. > :15:59.were in 2010 and use of your worst defeat in living memory.
:16:00. > :16:04.That is the totality. What matters is seat by seat, that is what the
:16:05. > :16:09.Republicans found in the presidential elections. Patrick
:16:10. > :16:13.O'Flynn, you performed well in the local election but it wasn't an
:16:14. > :16:18.earthquake. It is definitely true that Labour did well in London but
:16:19. > :16:21.that is a double-edged sword because you have an increasing disconnect
:16:22. > :16:29.between the metropolis and the rest of the country. Our vote share was
:16:30. > :16:32.somewhat depressed not just because London is one of our weakest part of
:16:33. > :16:39.the country but because most of the warts in London were 3-member wards
:16:40. > :16:43.and we were typically only putting up one candidate. Even when they
:16:44. > :16:49.fared well, it still tracked down the projected national share. I
:16:50. > :16:55.think we did well, and what was particularly good was getting the
:16:56. > :17:09.target seat list becoming clear before our eyes. Suzanne Evans said
:17:10. > :17:15.that basically smart folk don't vote for UKIP. I think that is a tiny
:17:16. > :17:19.fragment of what she said. She said London is its own entity and is
:17:20. > :17:23.increasingly different from the rest of the country. One of the things
:17:24. > :17:29.that is different from London as opposed to Rotherham is that we have
:17:30. > :17:35.very big parties. I have a few thousand people in mind, Rotherham
:17:36. > :17:40.has a few hundred. People don't go and knock on doors and talk to
:17:41. > :17:45.people, in London we have always had to do that. London is full of young
:17:46. > :17:49.voters, full of ethnically diverse voters, that is why you are not
:17:50. > :17:56.doing well, you don't appeal to live there. I think London in general has
:17:57. > :18:01.a very different attitude to mass uncontrolled immigration. Londoners
:18:02. > :18:11.know that if an immigrant moves in next door to you, to use Nigel
:18:12. > :18:16.Farage's phrase, the world doesn't end tomorrow. People in the big
:18:17. > :18:22.cities know that, that is the point. What Diane Abbott is doing is try to
:18:23. > :18:29.convince London of its moral superiority so I am delighted... It
:18:30. > :18:34.is a simple fact that immigrants do not end the world if they move in
:18:35. > :18:38.next door. The economic recovery is getting more robust by the month,
:18:39. > :18:44.you have a seriously to ship problem according to many people on your own
:18:45. > :18:53.site. Maybe you're 31% of the vote is as good as it gets. Those who go
:18:54. > :19:01.round bitching about Ed Miliband have been doing that before the
:19:02. > :19:11.result. We have all polled very well. Ed Miliband does not polled
:19:12. > :19:16.very well. He has actually fashioned some really effective policies.
:19:17. > :19:20.Unemployment is tumbling, inflation is falling, growth is strengthening,
:19:21. > :19:26.and you have a leader who claims there is a cost of living crisis and
:19:27. > :19:33.he doesn't have a clue about his own cost of living. I think that was
:19:34. > :19:42.poor staff work. That he doesn't know what goes in his own shopping
:19:43. > :19:49.basket? I think his own staff could have prepared him for that. My point
:19:50. > :19:57.is that the numbers are looking better, we know that, but people
:19:58. > :20:05.don't feel better off. Then why are all consumer index polls better?
:20:06. > :20:08.They are feeling confident. They may be saying that, but people are
:20:09. > :20:14.worried about their future, their children's future. That is not what
:20:15. > :20:18.you buy today or tomorrow. If you ask people about their future and
:20:19. > :20:23.their children's future and prospects, they feel frightened.
:20:24. > :20:29.What will be a good result for you in the general election? We need to
:20:30. > :20:34.see Nigel Farage elected as an MP and he mustn't go there on his own.
:20:35. > :20:40.How many people do you think will be with him? Who knows, but we will
:20:41. > :20:44.have 20 to 30 target seat and if you put together the clusters we got in
:20:45. > :20:49.last year's County elections with the one we got this year, you can
:20:50. > :20:53.have a good guess at where they are. A number of people who voted
:20:54. > :20:58.for you and Thursday say they are going to back to the three main
:20:59. > :21:07.parties in general election. It would be foolish of me to say that
:21:08. > :21:14.they are going to stay. Some have said they have just lent their votes
:21:15. > :21:22.but voters hate being taken for granted. It is up to us to broaden
:21:23. > :21:28.our agenda, and build on our strengths, work on our weaknesses.
:21:29. > :21:34.Ed Miliband may have to do a deal with him. We have been here before,
:21:35. > :21:40.but the UKIP bubble is going to burst and that may happen around the
:21:41. > :21:46.time of Newark. Are you going to win Newark now? We are going to give it
:21:47. > :21:55.a really good crack. We love being the underdog, we don't see it as
:21:56. > :22:00.being the big goal -- the be all and end all. If you're going to get a
:22:01. > :22:10.big bounce off the elections, not to go and win your shows people who
:22:11. > :22:14.govern in Parliament, they don't vote for you. It is Labour who have
:22:15. > :22:17.given up the campaign already so we need a really big swing in our
:22:18. > :22:27.favour and we will give it a great crack. The bubble will burst at the
:22:28. > :22:37.Newark by-election, trust me. Have you been to Newark? Newark will see
:22:38. > :22:42.from local people... Where is it? It is outside the M25, I can tell you
:22:43. > :22:48.that. My point is that we are set for victory in 2015. I want to run
:22:49. > :22:53.this clip and get your take on it, an interview that Nigel Farage did
:22:54. > :22:57.with LBC. What they do is they have an auditor to make sure they spend
:22:58. > :23:06.their money in accordance with their rules. You say that is if there is
:23:07. > :23:13.something wrong with it. Hang on, hang on. This is Patrick O'Flynn, is
:23:14. > :23:19.this a friend in the media or a member of the political class? Do
:23:20. > :23:28.you regret doing that now? What were you doing? No, I was trying to get
:23:29. > :23:34.Nigel Farage to a more important interview with Sunday Times that had
:23:35. > :23:43.painstakingly organised. He was on there? I have told the LBC people
:23:44. > :23:48.next door that he was running over. So you interrupted a live interview
:23:49. > :23:52.and you don't regret that? No, because just between us I wasn't a
:23:53. > :23:57.massive enthusiast for that interview taking place at all. I
:23:58. > :24:09.know what James O'Brien is like and I knew it wouldn't be particularly
:24:10. > :24:17.edifying. But your boss wasn't happy with the intervention. Sometimes the
:24:18. > :24:22.boss gets shirty. We all upset our boss every now and again, but anyway
:24:23. > :24:26.you could be an MEP by this time tomorrow and you won't have to do
:24:27. > :24:31.this job any more. You can then just count your salary and your expenses.
:24:32. > :24:37.I will make the contribution my party leader asked me to, to restore
:24:38. > :24:40.Britain to being a self-governing country. Are you going to stay in
:24:41. > :24:45.the job or not? I would not be able to do the job in the same way but I
:24:46. > :24:54.would maybe have some kind of overview. We will leave it there.
:24:55. > :25:00.Yesterday Michael Ashcroft, a former deputy chairman, produced a mammoth
:25:01. > :25:03.opinion poll of more than 26,000 voters in 26 marginal
:25:04. > :25:07.constituencies, crucial seat that will decide the outcome of the
:25:08. > :25:12.general election next year. In 26 constituencies people were asked
:25:13. > :25:26.which party's candidate they would support, and Labour took a healthy
:25:27. > :25:34.12 point lead, implying a swing of 6.5% from Conservatives to Labour
:25:35. > :25:38.from the last general election. That implies Labour would topple 83 Tory
:25:39. > :25:51.MPs. The poll also shows UKIP in second place in four seats, and
:25:52. > :25:55.three of them are Labour seats. Michael Ashcroft says a quarter of
:25:56. > :26:00.those who say they would vote UKIP supported the Tories at the last
:26:01. > :26:04.election. As many as have switched from Labour and the Lib Dems
:26:05. > :26:10.combined. The communities Secretary Eric
:26:11. > :26:14.Pickles joins me now. The Ashcroft Paul that gives Labour a massive 12
:26:15. > :26:19.point lead in the crucial marginal constituencies, you would lose 83
:26:20. > :26:23.MPs if this was repeated in an election. It doesn't get worse than
:26:24. > :26:31.that, does it? Yesterday I went through that Paul in great detail,
:26:32. > :26:37.and what it shows is that in a number of key seats we are ahead,
:26:38. > :26:42.and somewhere behind, and I think is Michael rightly shows... You are
:26:43. > :26:46.behind in most of them. This is a snapshot and we have a year in which
:26:47. > :26:50.the economy is going to be improving, and we have a year to say
:26:51. > :26:55.to those candidates that are fighting those key seats, look, just
:26:56. > :27:05.around the corner people are ahead in the same kind of seat as you and
:27:06. > :27:07.we need to redouble our efforts. The Tory brand is dying in major parts
:27:08. > :27:11.of the country, you are the walking dead in Scotland, and now London,
:27:12. > :27:21.huge chunks of London are becoming a no-go zone for you. That's not true
:27:22. > :27:26.with regard to the northern seats. Tell me what seats you have? In
:27:27. > :27:32.terms of councillors we are the largest party in local government.
:27:33. > :27:38.After four years in power... You are smiling but no political party has
:27:39. > :27:43.ever done that. You haven't got a single councillor in the great city
:27:44. > :27:49.of Manchester. We have councillors in Bradford and Leeds, we have
:27:50. > :27:55.more... You haven't got an MP in any of the big cities? We have more
:27:56. > :27:59.councillors in the north of England than Labour. A quarter of those who
:28:00. > :28:04.say they would vote UKIP and did vote UKIP supported the Tories at
:28:05. > :28:10.the last election. Why are so many of your 2010 voters now so
:28:11. > :28:14.disillusioned? Any election will bring a degree of churning, and we
:28:15. > :28:18.hope to get as many back as we can, but we also want to get Liberal
:28:19. > :28:24.Democrats, people who voted for the Lib Dems and the Labour Party. If we
:28:25. > :28:29.concentrate on one part of the electorate, then we won't take power
:28:30. > :28:34.and I believe we will because I believe we represent a wide spectrum
:28:35. > :28:39.of opinion in this country and I believe that delivering a long-term
:28:40. > :28:43.economic plan, delivering prosperity into people 's pockets will be felt.
:28:44. > :28:47.On the basis of the local election results, you would not pick up a
:28:48. > :28:56.single Labour seat in the general election. You make the point that it
:28:57. > :29:04.is about local elections. Seats that Labour should have taken from us
:29:05. > :29:08.they didn't, which is important... I am asking what possible Labour seat
:29:09. > :29:12.you would hope to win after the results on Thursday. Local elections
:29:13. > :29:17.are local elections. The national election will have a much bigger
:29:18. > :29:23.turnout, it will be one year from now, we will be able to demonstrate
:29:24. > :29:26.to the population that the trends we are seeing already in terms of the
:29:27. > :29:31.success of our long-term economic plan, they will be feeling that in
:29:32. > :29:37.their pockets. People need to feel secure about their jobs and feel
:29:38. > :29:40.that their children have a future. Maybe so many of your people are
:29:41. > :29:44.defecting to UKIP because on issues that they really care about like
:29:45. > :29:55.mass immigration, you don't keep your promises.
:29:56. > :30:00.We have reduced immigration and the amount of pull factors. Let me give
:30:01. > :30:07.you the figures. You have said a couple of things are not true. You
:30:08. > :30:13.promised to cut net immigration to under 100,000 by 2015, last year it
:30:14. > :30:19.rose by 50,000, 212,000. You have broken your promise. We still intend
:30:20. > :30:25.to reduce the amount from non-EU countries. I want to be clear, I
:30:26. > :30:29.have no problem with people coming here who want to work and pay their
:30:30. > :30:36.national insurance and tax, to help fund the health service. What I have
:30:37. > :30:41.objection to our people coming here to get the additional benefits. You
:30:42. > :30:49.made the promise. It is our intention to deliver it. People
:30:50. > :30:54.defect to UKIP because mainstream politicians to -- like yourself do
:30:55. > :30:58.not give straight answers. Can you be straight, you will not hit your
:30:59. > :31:05.immigration target by the election, correct? We will announce measures
:31:06. > :31:10.that. People factor. Will you hit your target? It is a year from now,
:31:11. > :31:19.it is our intention to move towards the target. Is it your intention, do
:31:20. > :31:23.you say you will hit your target of under 100,000 net migration by the
:31:24. > :31:29.election? We will do our damnedest. But you will not make it. I do not
:31:30. > :31:34.know that to be fact. They also vote UKIP cos they do not trust you and
:31:35. > :31:38.Europe, David Cameron has promised a referendum, he has vowed to resign
:31:39. > :31:44.if he does not deliver one, but still your voters vote for UKIP.
:31:45. > :31:53.There were reasons why people voted for UKIP. A great deal of anger
:31:54. > :31:56.about the political system, about the Metropolitan elite that they see
:31:57. > :32:01.running programmes like this and the political programmes. We need to
:32:02. > :32:11.listen to their concerns and address them. David Cameron has got a better
:32:12. > :32:17.record on delivery. He vetoed a treaty, he stopped us having to bail
:32:18. > :32:23.out the currency. Why are you likely to convert a night in the European
:32:24. > :32:28.elections? If you do come third, it will show they do not trust you on
:32:29. > :32:34.Europe. Next year, we will face a general election, about having money
:32:35. > :32:41.in people's pockets, about who will run the country. David Davis wants
:32:42. > :32:45.to China and get the voters to trust the Tories on the referendum, he was
:32:46. > :32:52.the pledge to be brought forward to 2016. He is a clever guy. But if you
:32:53. > :32:57.are going to try to negotiate a better deal to give the population a
:32:58. > :33:04.better choice, you cannot do that in a year, you will require two years.
:33:05. > :33:11.You are an Essex MP, you know about Essex people, it must be depressing
:33:12. > :33:16.that they are now voting for UKIP. I do not have any UKIP in my
:33:17. > :33:21.constituency. I felt bad to see Basildon go down and to see the
:33:22. > :33:29.leader go down. Do you know why that is? The Tory party does not resonate
:33:30. > :33:33.with the Essex people in the way that the Margaret Thatcher party
:33:34. > :33:37.did. That is why you did not get a majority in 2010 and why you will
:33:38. > :33:44.not win in 2015. We need to connect better. They will want to know about
:33:45. > :33:51.their children's future, will they have a job, a good education? When
:33:52. > :33:55.it comes to electing a national government, they do not want to see
:33:56. > :34:01.Ed Miliband in office. They are voting for Nigel Farage. In terms of
:34:02. > :34:07.what government you get, do you want to see David Cameron in number ten
:34:08. > :34:11.or Ed Miliband? Essex will want to see David Cameron. You only got 36%
:34:12. > :34:19.of the vote four years ago, your party, occurs you did not get the
:34:20. > :34:24.Essex people in the same numbers, like John Major or Margaret Thatcher
:34:25. > :34:31.did. You need more than 36% in 2015 to win the election. On Thursday,
:34:32. > :34:39.your share was 29%. We were 2% behind Labour. They did not do very
:34:40. > :34:46.well either. A year before, -- a year before the election in 1997,
:34:47. > :34:53.they were on 43%. It is highly deliver the votes. We have a
:34:54. > :34:56.campaign looking at the marginals. We know exactly where we are not
:34:57. > :35:01.doing as well as we should be. I am a big fan of Michael Ashcroft. Do
:35:02. > :35:05.you think he does this to be helpful? He is a great man and a
:35:06. > :35:12.good conservative, I am a good friend of his. I think that his
:35:13. > :35:17.publication was one of the best things that happened to the party.
:35:18. > :35:25.You got 36% of the vote last time, you are down to 29, you need 38 or
:35:26. > :35:33.39, you would get that if you had a pact with UKIP. There will be no
:35:34. > :35:37.pact. I am a Democrat. It is like a market stall, you should put your
:35:38. > :35:42.policies out there and you should not try to fix the market. Would you
:35:43. > :35:54.stop a local pact? There will be no pact with UKIP. None.
:35:55. > :35:59.It has just gone 11:35am. We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland and
:36:00. > :36:04.Northern Ireland. Coming up here, we will speak to the
:36:05. > :36:15.Hello, and after a hectic week of coordinator Paddy Ashdown. First,
:36:16. > :36:19.Hello, and after a hectic week of elections, we're here to see where
:36:20. > :36:22.it leaves the political landscape in the North East and Cumbria. With me
:36:23. > :36:24.live in the studio, Gateshead's Labour MP Ian Mearns, Berwick
:36:25. > :36:30.Conservative candidate Anne`Marie Trevelyan, and Newcastle Lib Dem
:36:31. > :36:33.councillor David Faulkner. Also coming up: Should this market town
:36:34. > :36:38.in Teesside become part of North Yorkshire? The people who live there
:36:39. > :36:41.get THEIR say. And I'm in Sunderland, where the
:36:42. > :36:44.European election results are under lock and key ready for tonight's
:36:45. > :36:49.count. Will UKIP make the breakthrough they promised in the
:36:50. > :36:52.North East? More from Mark shortly. Well,
:36:53. > :36:55.there's no doubt that Labour is still the big force in North East
:36:56. > :36:58.politics, and nothing that happened in the polling stations on Thursday
:36:59. > :37:01.changed that. These were the scenes of jubilation in Sunderland. And
:37:02. > :37:04.they were repeated at other town halls in the north, including
:37:05. > :37:06.Newcastle, Gateshead, and South Tyneside, where Labour easily
:37:07. > :37:11.retained control. But it's only part of the story. UKIP may have only won
:37:12. > :37:14.two council seats ` both of them in Hartlepool ` but they piled up the
:37:15. > :37:18.votes, winning a fifth of all votes across the region and coming second
:37:19. > :37:21.to Labour in many contests. That performance should put them on
:37:22. > :37:25.course to win their first ever European Parliamentary seat in the
:37:26. > :37:31.North East. This was the verdict from voters in Eaglescliffe.
:37:32. > :37:35.UKIP of course. Nigel Farage. Why is that? I don't like the way the
:37:36. > :37:40.Conservatives are messing things around. They are saying they will do
:37:41. > :37:45.one thing and then they do something else. UKIP. Why is that? Because I
:37:46. > :37:49.just think they are the best party at the moment. I don't trust any of
:37:50. > :37:53.the others. I might as well have something new. I agree with some of
:37:54. > :37:59.his policies. I voted Labour. Why was that? Because I think they will
:38:00. > :38:06.represent us well in Europe. UKIP. We voted UKIP. Fed up with the rest
:38:07. > :38:12.of them. Labour. Why is that? Because I'm working class, always
:38:13. > :38:15.voted Labour all my life. Voters in Eaglescliffe. Support like
:38:16. > :38:18.that for UKIP was enough to deliver them two councillors in Hartlepool.
:38:19. > :38:21.Tom Hind was one them. People are voting for UKIP this time
:38:22. > :38:25.around simply because they are a national party with a lot of new and
:38:26. > :38:29.positive ideas for the way the country needs to be run, and we're
:38:30. > :38:33.beginning to resonate with the local population at large.
:38:34. > :38:36.Well, the local Labour MP in Hartlepool, Iain Wright, said HE
:38:37. > :38:40.believed voters had turned to UKIP as a protest against all the
:38:41. > :38:43.established political parties. I think it probably means there is
:38:44. > :38:48.an anti`politics feeling out there that UKIP can capitalise on. But
:38:49. > :38:52.we've had UKIP councillors in Hartlepool before. They tend to
:38:53. > :38:55.implode. They will probably do that again. In many respects, I think
:38:56. > :39:01.tonight shows that Hartlepool stays on a steady course with Labour still
:39:02. > :39:04.in control. Labour's Iain Wright. As for the
:39:05. > :39:07.Conservatives, they kept control of Harrogate ` no surprise there ` and
:39:08. > :39:10.held onto their seats in North Tyneside. But it was in Carlisle
:39:11. > :39:13.where their performance arguably mattered most. It's a key battle
:39:14. > :39:16.ground at next year's general election, and the sitting Tory MP
:39:17. > :39:21.believes the result offered him hope of retaining his seat.
:39:22. > :39:25.I think it's been very positive. We held the seats we hoped to hold, and
:39:26. > :39:28.our vote has held up as well. It's a good base going forward to the
:39:29. > :39:32.general election next year. Clearly there has been the protest vote to
:39:33. > :39:36.the UKIP party, so we will have to see how that unravels. If I was in
:39:37. > :39:39.the Labour camp, I'd be deeply disappointed because if the
:39:40. > :39:43.opposition party want to be the next government, clearly they aren't
:39:44. > :39:47.making the advances they should. John Stevenson. For the Lib Dems,
:39:48. > :39:50.there wasn't much to shout about. They lost eight seats across the
:39:51. > :39:54.region ` that's not as bad as it might have been. But overall, it was
:39:55. > :39:56.a predictably disappointing set of results, which local party
:39:57. > :40:00.candidates blamed on the national mood.
:40:01. > :40:02.At the end of the day, we have fought this election against a
:40:03. > :40:11.background of dismal polls, but that's politics, isn't it? I think
:40:12. > :40:13.it will turn around. Have you got confidence in the national
:40:14. > :40:18.leadership in Nick Clegg? He's honest. I think he's more honest
:40:19. > :40:23.than most. I think sometimes...sometimes he might be
:40:24. > :40:27.better saying nothing. Not exactly a ringing endorsement.
:40:28. > :40:38.Let's see what our panel make of it all. According to the headlines,
:40:39. > :40:44.another difficult night for your party. You confident Nick Clegg is
:40:45. > :40:48.the right man? The damage to our vote caused by our association with
:40:49. > :40:57.the Kurds server to use and the coalition has not gone down well. ``
:40:58. > :41:01.the Conservatives. As the general election comes closer, we have to
:41:02. > :41:04.put the case for what the Liberal Democrats have achieved in
:41:05. > :41:09.government and what we would like to do beyond the general election in
:41:10. > :41:13.whatever capacity that we have. But does not strike me as a ringing
:41:14. > :41:19.endorsement. But you say stick with Nick Clegg. You lack that is what
:41:20. > :41:24.I'm saying. The only obvious leader who can make any difference is Vince
:41:25. > :41:33.Cable, and he does not want to do the job. If you will have him what
:41:34. > :41:38.to do the job, would you prefer that? I have always been a Vince
:41:39. > :41:42.Cable man. But neat clip will be written up as somebody who has been
:41:43. > :41:49.more substantial and important than currently presented. `` Nick Clegg.
:41:50. > :41:54.Small gains, but does this put you in the position to be the next
:41:55. > :42:00.government? Compared to 2012 when you score 80%, it more like 60% this
:42:01. > :42:08.time. Still dominant, but a bit of a problem. I think the UKIP effect has
:42:09. > :42:14.had an impact on the parties. There has not been a general drift away,
:42:15. > :42:17.there has been a real volatility in the political mix in the area with
:42:18. > :42:26.people voting many different ways. Some Labour 's gone to UKIP and so
:42:27. > :42:31.on. From that perspective, the UKIP impact has been volatility in the
:42:32. > :42:45.area. York party were confident the stop `` your party were confident.
:42:46. > :42:50.Note Ashcroft shows that over half of UKIP's voters come from the
:42:51. > :42:58.Conservatives. Only one in seven have come from Labour. What I would
:42:59. > :43:01.say is that this whole Thursday has been painted as a disaster for
:43:02. > :43:07.Labour, and having won more than 2000 seats and gained 338, I don't
:43:08. > :43:15.see how anybody could paint that is a disaster given the losses by the
:43:16. > :43:19.Lib Dems and the Conservatives. Why is your own party criticising the
:43:20. > :43:24.campaign and will lead our? I am bemused by that. I think the results
:43:25. > :43:30.were robust on Thursday. You have no doubts? Witham I don't. I think Ed
:43:31. > :43:37.Miliband is pulling together a better offer. No longer can we offer
:43:38. > :43:44.ordinary working`class voters crimes of the table. We have to beef up our
:43:45. > :43:50.attitude something tangible to work for an something tangible to hope
:43:51. > :43:58.for. `` crimes of the table. On the popular vote, UKIP outpolled you.
:43:59. > :44:01.You disappointed? Not surprising. We were aware their target was to
:44:02. > :44:07.really pull in that disaffected Labour vote, and judging by the
:44:08. > :44:11.numbers, I think that is what we have seen. But I suspect many people
:44:12. > :44:17.you would have hoped vote Conservatives. What we saw in
:44:18. > :44:21.Northumberland will begin have local elections that were running European
:44:22. > :44:27.elections, most of the Conservative vote hasn't moved to UKIP. We lost a
:44:28. > :44:34.group of our most right wing and your septic voters last time around,
:44:35. > :44:41.but we haven't seen a shift since then. `` Eurosceptic. We have seen
:44:42. > :44:45.an aggressive campaign by UKIP. Then there is that section of the
:44:46. > :44:56.electorate that have not voted for years. Is UKIP getting levels of
:44:57. > :45:02.voting in Northumberland that Conservatives couldn't even dream
:45:03. > :45:09.of? Why would they will do the Conservatives and not UKIP? People
:45:10. > :45:12.voting UKIP because they Eurosceptic have felt the Conservative Party
:45:13. > :45:15.have not been aggressive enough, and that is the challenge of the
:45:16. > :45:19.coalition. The Lib Dems are clearly in favour of Europe and do not want
:45:20. > :45:28.a referendum. We have driven at a gender aggressively. Would you be
:45:29. > :45:36.confident of holding onto Berwick? The Lib Dems are resilient. Look at
:45:37. > :45:42.Emory is the candidate. They have been trying to win it back for
:45:43. > :45:49.years. We were told they would be a meltdown. `` Anne`Marie. We won back
:45:50. > :45:54.many seats in difficult circumstances. Where we are built
:45:55. > :45:57.into the community and work hard and Sheppey in our communities, our MPs
:45:58. > :46:03.are well known, we will do well to stop `` champions. We still do not
:46:04. > :46:08.know the outcome of the European elections, which ` to fit in with
:46:09. > :46:11.the rest of the continent ` aren't counted until tonight. Mark Denten
:46:12. > :46:17.is at Sunderland, where all the North East action will be. When can
:46:18. > :46:22.we expect to find out? Richard, hopefully, possibly, maybe before
:46:23. > :46:28.midnight. There is reputation here in Sunderland for getting the votes
:46:29. > :46:31.in early. We are here at a tennis centre. There is not a lot of tennis
:46:32. > :46:36.here. I have my doubts about the wellness as well because if you look
:46:37. > :46:43.around, there are some picky politicians biting their nails since
:46:44. > :46:46.Thursday's European elections. Why are we waiting? Because the rest of
:46:47. > :46:52.Europe is still in the process of voting. In the meantime, those
:46:53. > :46:55.ballot boxes are under lock and key until we get to ten o'clock tonight
:46:56. > :46:58.when all of the votes have been collated. The chief returning
:46:59. > :47:03.officer will do a competent at some dreamt up by a Belgian, and we
:47:04. > :47:07.should hopefully by midnight have the names of the three MEPs to
:47:08. > :47:14.represent the North East. You were looking blog yourself despite tough
:47:15. > :47:47.days. `` you are looking well. Can UKIP win in the North East?
:47:48. > :47:49.the low `` local. Eight seat for grabs. We will be watching to see if
:47:50. > :47:53.the BNP managed to retain their seat. Six in Yorkshire. By the end
:47:54. > :47:59.of the night in the three regions, we will have 70 MEPs. Spare a
:48:00. > :48:02.thought for the 165 people who will have a disappointing bank holiday
:48:03. > :48:08.Monday because they did not get in. We have 10.5 hours until we get the
:48:09. > :48:15.declaration. I will stay around here and keep an eye on this. The
:48:16. > :48:18.elections would work the same without you.
:48:19. > :48:21.And if you want to find out all the Euro election results, why not join
:48:22. > :48:24.Mark ` and a chap called David Dimbleby ` on BBC One from 11
:48:25. > :48:27.o'clock tonight? And last ` but certainly not least `
:48:28. > :48:30.on the election front. Dramatic events in Copeland. Residents there
:48:31. > :48:33.were voting in a referendum to decide if they wanted to scrap the
:48:34. > :48:37.existing system of council leadership in favour of an elected
:48:38. > :48:39.mayor of the sort that Middlesbrough and North Tyneside have. And mayoral
:48:40. > :48:42.campaigners were celebrating success by a majority of more than two to
:48:43. > :48:46.one. We are so overjoyed. We are ecstatic
:48:47. > :48:56.at tonight's result. All we can do is say thank you again and again and
:48:57. > :49:01.again to the people of Copeland. We will talk more about that later.
:49:02. > :49:04.Let's talk about the European elections. Given the results in the
:49:05. > :49:09.locals, on a scale of one to ten how sure are you that we will still have
:49:10. > :49:15.a Conservative MEP in the North East? A seven or eight. I figured
:49:16. > :49:24.large chunk of the Labour vote having gone to UKIP, Labour have to
:49:25. > :49:29.get a high percentage, 35% to put the seat at risk, but I'm not a
:49:30. > :49:34.gambling man and I would say one Labour, one UKIP and one Tory. What
:49:35. > :49:39.would that say about Conservative support in the region? I figure
:49:40. > :49:45.would be a great loss to the region to lose Martin as our MEP. He has
:49:46. > :49:51.fought hard on key issues. It would be a loss for the Conservatives. He
:49:52. > :49:54.has led the party in Europe in an incredibly determined way. He has
:49:55. > :49:58.put forward they Eurosceptic agenda is the leader of the group
:49:59. > :50:02.incredibly effectively. He would be a great loss. I am hopeful he will
:50:03. > :50:09.come through and still be there tomorrow. On a scale of one to ten,
:50:10. > :50:16.would you like a minus figure on how likely you are to keep your seat?
:50:17. > :50:23.What are you laughing at? It ironic that it will be hard for. We are the
:50:24. > :50:28.party that actually made an election about Europe, where is the other
:50:29. > :50:32.parties and party leaders were spineless and decided to pretend it
:50:33. > :50:39.was not a European election. I am proud of our party's commitment. And
:50:40. > :50:42.strategy hasn't worked. I'm OK. I think it is important somebody
:50:43. > :50:47.stands up for international is, working with Europe. It is not
:50:48. > :50:51.uncritical of the EU. Any change and reform. But I'm proud that my party
:50:52. > :50:56.and leader have stood up to Europe. You have lost the argument. But if
:50:57. > :51:00.we have lost the argument this time, so be it. There will be a bigger
:51:01. > :51:04.argument coming if there is a future referendum, and we will put the case
:51:05. > :51:09.just as enthusiastically then. Would be good enough for you to retain
:51:10. > :51:16.your one MEP you have, or do you need more? We were talking about
:51:17. > :51:20.volatility earlier. There will be volatility in this. I am hopeful
:51:21. > :51:23.Labour will have to sit in the European Parliament from the North
:51:24. > :51:28.East of England. As far as the European argument, I can't give
:51:29. > :51:37.another region to which European Union is more important. That
:51:38. > :51:45.Sinatra and we have to have. `` that is an argument. They went on about
:51:46. > :51:48.the cost of living crisis. David Faulkner said they would worry
:51:49. > :51:54.people would migrate to UKIP because they were concerned about
:51:55. > :51:57.migration. But I would say is that after European candidates have
:51:58. > :52:00.worked hard and argued about Europe across the whole of the region, and
:52:01. > :52:06.I think they have been trying to get across to people how important
:52:07. > :52:19.European Union is to this region. Six of the half`dozen jobs, `` 6500
:52:20. > :52:24.jobs, but... You think we need to have a referendum? HS2 I am not
:52:25. > :52:29.frightened of a referendum. I'm not convinced we need to have one. You
:52:30. > :52:37.have seats like Stockton South. Might be a good idea to talk to UKIP
:52:38. > :52:40.so James stays in Parliament. Polls showed there was a surprisingly
:52:41. > :52:47.strong hold in the Conservative vote their way James was working hard on
:52:48. > :52:50.the ground. He has led the argument for putting a referendum out there
:52:51. > :52:54.for the people, and if Labour could get off the fence and agree that
:52:55. > :52:57.whether you vote in or out, we had it, you would see a much of the
:52:58. > :53:00.view. Well, October has been proposed as
:53:01. > :53:04.the date for the mayoral vote, although local MP Jamie Reed said
:53:05. > :53:09.this weekend he wants it to be held on the same day as next year's
:53:10. > :53:12.general election. We'll talk a bit more about that shortly, but you
:53:13. > :53:16.might think after all the elections of recent days, people would have
:53:17. > :53:20.had enough of voting. Not so, it seems, if you live in the market
:53:21. > :53:23.town of Yarm on the banks of the River Tees. A local referendum will
:53:24. > :53:26.be held next week to ask residents if they want their community to
:53:27. > :53:29.leave Stockton and rejoin North Yorkshire. Luke Walton went to find
:53:30. > :53:31.out more. With its magnificent Victorian
:53:32. > :53:34.viaduct and genteel Georgian high Street, Yarm doesn't look like an
:53:35. > :53:38.obvious hotbed of protest. But despite appearances, there is a mood
:53:39. > :53:44.here of rebellion, with much of the anger focused on the local Stockton
:53:45. > :53:47.council. And this is one of the reasons for the uproar. The
:53:48. > :53:51.introduction of pay and display car parking here in the town centre. On
:53:52. > :53:55.top of that, there's been fury about plans to remove old cobbles from the
:53:56. > :53:59.high street and to approve hundreds of new homes. Of course grumbles
:54:00. > :54:02.about your local council are common wherever you live, but what is
:54:03. > :54:08.different here in Yarm is a truly radical proposal to break away from
:54:09. > :54:14.the local authority altogether. Step forward the Yarm For Yorkshire
:54:15. > :54:18.campaign. You don't mind if I put a poster up your window, do you? 40
:54:19. > :54:21.years after it left the county in a reorganisation of local government,
:54:22. > :54:24.its supporters think it is high time for its return. We don't feel
:54:25. > :54:28.represented by Stockton Borough Council. They've mismanaged Yarm in
:54:29. > :54:33.the past. They have done for a lot of years now. They don't know how to
:54:34. > :54:39.manage a market town effectively. We feel our historical roots are in the
:54:40. > :54:41.north rather than in Yorkshire. On Tuesday, the idea of swapping
:54:42. > :54:45.Stockton Council for the Hambleton district of North Yorkshire will be
:54:46. > :54:48.put to a vote of local residents. The owner of one of the town's
:54:49. > :54:53.oldest family businesses is positive about the change. Yorkshire is known
:54:54. > :54:56.in Australia, New Zealand, all over. People come to visit Yorkshire, look
:54:57. > :55:02.at the guidebooks, and Yarm doesn't occur. It is outside Yorkshire. This
:55:03. > :55:06.is very difficult for local businesses. Others criticised the
:55:07. > :55:09.?4,000 cost of a referendum that is not legally binding, and question
:55:10. > :55:16.whether change would really be for the better. It's certainly not going
:55:17. > :55:19.to deliver the result that people want, and I'm not even convinced
:55:20. > :55:22.Hambleton District Council is the panacea it has been painted out to
:55:23. > :55:25.be. We will be much further away from the administrative centre,
:55:26. > :55:27.which could potentially restrict residents' access to social
:55:28. > :55:32.services, certainly the council services. Out on the high street, in
:55:33. > :55:36.opinion is divided. I think we should come out of Stockton.
:55:37. > :55:39.Stockton doesn't do anything for us. I don't know whether it would be any
:55:40. > :55:43.better. You don't think Hambleton Distrct Council will be any better?
:55:44. > :55:47.We're right on the end of it. North Yorkshire would be nice, but it's
:55:48. > :55:50.more of a snobby thing, I think. OK, so you don't think there'll be much
:55:51. > :55:54.material difference in joining it? I don't know much about it, to be
:55:55. > :55:58.honest, but I think it's fine as it is. As far as people are concerned,
:55:59. > :56:01.it's Yorkshire. Do you think it would be good to leave Stockton? Oh,
:56:02. > :56:04.yeah. There's nothing good about Stockton. Just have a drive down
:56:05. > :56:08.there and find out. Stockton Council turned down our request for an
:56:09. > :56:11.interview. But in a statement, the Labour leader Councillor Bob Cook
:56:12. > :56:15.said the council services were valued by most residents. He added
:56:16. > :56:18.that all local authorities have to ensure they have proper parking
:56:19. > :56:23.arrangements, and that they handle planning applications in line with
:56:24. > :56:28.the national policy framework. The local Conservative MP is not
:56:29. > :56:31.impressed. The truth is that a lot of people I speak to are frustrated
:56:32. > :56:34.with Stockton Council. They feel they are not listening to local
:56:35. > :56:38.communities, whether that is Yarm or elsewhere in the south of the
:56:39. > :56:41.borough. For some, Yarm has never stopped being a white rose town. The
:56:42. > :56:51.question now, whether it needs a vocal authority to match the symbol.
:56:52. > :56:58.Something about local identity going on, but they could be a lot of
:56:59. > :57:03.non`Labour voters disgruntled at the Labour council does not do much for
:57:04. > :57:13.them. You will see that disgruntlement in most councils.
:57:14. > :57:18.They have had disproportionate things thrust on them by the
:57:19. > :57:24.government. It is difficult. So it is central government's fault? I
:57:25. > :57:29.think we have to try to make the best job we can, but in those
:57:30. > :57:34.situations where we have had huge cuts in finances, it makes
:57:35. > :57:39.resourcing anything for any neighbourhood difficult. It is a
:57:40. > :57:46.curious Case of democracy. Instead of fighting to win seats, you say we
:57:47. > :57:55.will dump that council and get one more suited to us. It is a sad
:57:56. > :58:01.reflection. It is a sad reflection that one big town is choosing this.
:58:02. > :58:05.We see that with Berwick in hours. Northumberland council is a huge
:58:06. > :58:08.area, and Berwick are write`up in the northern regions and feel the
:58:09. > :58:12.council is not hearing what they are saying. I think the challenge is for
:58:13. > :58:18.councillors to really develop a better relationship with the
:58:19. > :58:23.community. Parking charges is clearly a driving force behind this
:58:24. > :58:27.campaign. Talking about the elected mayor vote in Copeland, you are
:58:28. > :58:34.against having one in Newcastle. Is there a bit of traction for this? I
:58:35. > :58:38.am still against this. I think there is a strong feeling about the move
:58:39. > :58:43.towards cities, regions, neighbourhoods, localities. Localism
:58:44. > :58:50.agenda has a lot more traction. It is interesting that the Liberal
:58:51. > :58:54.party are saying they were running the country into much of a top`down
:58:55. > :58:56.way. I think we will see much more of this. Take you to all of our
:58:57. > :58:59.guests. And that's about it from us. We're
:59:00. > :59:03.not here next weekend, but rest assured we're back in a fortnight's
:59:04. > :59:06.time with the results of an exclusive BBC survey finding out
:59:07. > :59:07.what business in the North East and Cumbria thinks
:59:08. > :59:12.deported. We should also review the benefits system to make it
:59:13. > :59:17.contributory. Thank you. With that, back to you, Andrew.
:59:18. > :59:26.Welcome back. Mutterings among Lib Dems about Nick Clegg's leaderships,
:59:27. > :59:31.as we reported at the top of the show, and tonight it could get even
:59:32. > :59:38.worse when we get the results of the European elections. Paddy Ashdown,
:59:39. > :59:41.former Lib Dem leader, joins me now from our Westminster studio.
:59:42. > :59:49.Something has to change for the Lib Dems, if Nick Clegg isn't the change
:59:50. > :00:02.what will it be? The messages we have about reducing tax on the
:00:03. > :00:06.poorest, they now have traction. We have been on many programmes of this
:00:07. > :00:11.sort before, this idea that has been put about by these people who are
:00:12. > :00:15.calling for a leadership election is the silliest idea I have heard in my
:00:16. > :00:21.political career. It is not serious politics. This is the moment when we
:00:22. > :00:24.need to get out with a really good message and campaign through the
:00:25. > :00:31.summer in the context of the general election. Spending it on a divisive
:00:32. > :00:38.leadership contest is ridiculous. At the very moment when our sacrifices
:00:39. > :00:49.are beginning to gain traction, we turn in on ourselves. The question
:00:50. > :00:52.is, can the Liberal Democrats hack being in government? If we were to
:00:53. > :00:59.take this step, the anther would be no, and that would damage the party
:01:00. > :01:04.forever. It is clearly a problem, you have had to come out and defend
:01:05. > :01:09.Nick Clegg, we have not even had the European election results yet. It
:01:10. > :01:15.could get even worse by midnight. I have been up here anyway, to argue
:01:16. > :01:23.the party's case in the context of tonight. Let me try to put this in
:01:24. > :01:31.scale. We have a website which people can join to show their ascent
:01:32. > :01:34.to the fact that they like cake, it is called Liberal Democrats like
:01:35. > :01:39.cake, it has more people signed up than this website that is calling
:01:40. > :01:46.for a leadership election. Something like 200, of course this happens
:01:47. > :01:51.from time to time, the wonder is you are talking -- you are taking it
:01:52. > :01:56.seriously. Your colleagues are taking it seriously, including
:01:57. > :02:01.sitting MPs. People trot out a list of achievements that the party would
:02:02. > :02:07.like to be associated with, he began doing just that, but you have been
:02:08. > :02:11.doing that for months, if not for over a year, your ratings in the
:02:12. > :02:15.polls are terrible, you had a terrible local election, and you
:02:16. > :02:20.will probably have a terrible European election. It will cut
:02:21. > :02:24.through much better in the context of an election, we have been talking
:02:25. > :02:30.about the European elections. We have been here a long time, let me
:02:31. > :02:36.take you back, we have had tough times, in 1989, we came last in
:02:37. > :02:43.every constituency in Britain, save one, behind the Green party. One or
:02:44. > :02:50.two voices said, you have got to ditch the leader, me, you had one of
:02:51. > :02:55.them on earlier, John Hemmings, as I recall. One or two said we had to
:02:56. > :02:58.change course, but we stood our ground, and in the general election
:02:59. > :03:05.we not only re-established our position from a base of almost
:03:06. > :03:09.nothing, we laid the basis and foundation for doubling our seats in
:03:10. > :03:15.1997. That is what the party can do, they have a great message, and
:03:16. > :03:22.insert of wasting the summer and autumn on a leadership contest, we
:03:23. > :03:27.should be doing that. Nick Clegg had two opportunities to put part of
:03:28. > :03:34.that message across in the debate over Europe, but the party poll
:03:35. > :03:40.ratings fell after that. What Nick elected us to try to fill a vacuum
:03:41. > :03:49.of antique European rhetoric. And he lost. He could not change the best
:03:50. > :03:53.part of a generation of anti-European propaganda in a couple
:03:54. > :03:59.of performances? He lost the second debate more than the first. It is a
:04:00. > :04:06.long-term programme. Nick Clegg had the courage to take us into
:04:07. > :04:13.government. He took that decision before the party and gained 75, 80%
:04:14. > :04:20.support in a democratic vote. He has led the party with outstanding
:04:21. > :04:23.judgement. He has showed almost incredible grace under fire, being
:04:24. > :04:28.attacked from all sides, because some people hate the coalition, and
:04:29. > :04:31.he has the courage to do what no other Liberal Democrat leader has
:04:32. > :04:38.done, to stand up before the British people and say unequivocally, we are
:04:39. > :04:43.in favour of Europe. He is a man of courage, integrity, decency, he is
:04:44. > :04:48.one of the best prime ministers Britain has not got. In the context
:04:49. > :04:53.of a general election, that will go through. I am devoted to the man, he
:04:54. > :04:59.can do amazingly well in the general election. But he is losing local
:05:00. > :05:04.elections again and again, the European elections, and he is on
:05:05. > :05:09.track to lose the general election. European elections are not easy for
:05:10. > :05:18.us. Whatever happens tomorrow morning, it will not be bad -- as
:05:19. > :05:23.bad as 1989. We have had that line. In the context of a general
:05:24. > :05:27.election, we fought our way back, this time, we have been in
:05:28. > :05:31.government, we start from a higher base, we have a message to tell
:05:32. > :05:35.about how we alone have taken the tough decisions to get this country
:05:36. > :05:40.out of the worst economic mess it has ever seen, left to us by the
:05:41. > :05:45.Labour Party. We can go out in the context of a general election and
:05:46. > :05:48.fight for that. My guess is that the resurgence of the party in the
:05:49. > :05:57.context of a general election will be far greater than you are
:05:58. > :06:04.suggesting. We have done the Liberal Democrats,
:06:05. > :06:08.that move onto the other parties. How bad a leadership problem does Ed
:06:09. > :06:13.Miliband have? He has a continuation of a problem he has had for a long
:06:14. > :06:17.time. The Labour Party thought they had a soft lead, and they have the
:06:18. > :06:21.same situation, everybody is hanging on. They have to make a
:06:22. > :06:28.breakthrough. The big thing is that lots of people at Shadow Cabinet
:06:29. > :06:31.wish they had taken on UKIP, why was Labour turning its fire on the
:06:32. > :06:36.Liberal Democrats? They should have been taking on UKIP, and UKIP taken
:06:37. > :06:43.seats from them, such as in Rotherham. They have finally woken
:06:44. > :06:47.up. I think there is a class war breaking out, the northerners have
:06:48. > :06:54.taken against Ed Miliband and the Metropolitan sophisticates around
:06:55. > :07:00.them... One Labour MP has said, we do not want these guacamole eating
:07:01. > :07:07.people from North London! A number doing that. They wanted to take the
:07:08. > :07:13.fight to UKIP, because UKIP is getting working-class, Northern
:07:14. > :07:17.Labour votes. John Mann said it was ridiculous that the Labour Party did
:07:18. > :07:21.not put posters in the North of England to say that Nigel Farage
:07:22. > :07:28.regarded Margaret Thatcher as his heroine. But in a funny way, those
:07:29. > :07:31.Northern Labour MPs are speaking for the South, because the Labour Party
:07:32. > :07:36.will only win the general election if it takes back those seats in the
:07:37. > :07:39.south, the south-east, a couple of seats in the south-west that Tony
:07:40. > :07:46.Blair in 1997, and they acknowledge that. It is important to say they
:07:47. > :07:54.did win the local elections, they got 31%, but that was only to bustle
:07:55. > :07:59.-- two points hang-up the Conservatives. Neil Kinnock got 38%
:08:00. > :08:04.in 1991, the year before John Major got the largest in of votes ever.
:08:05. > :08:09.There is unease in the shadow cabinet about why Ed Miliband did
:08:10. > :08:15.not take on UKIP on immigration earlier. But Ed Miliband says, we
:08:16. > :08:19.should not be calling UKIP names, we should be calling them out, and he
:08:20. > :08:23.would say he did call them out. The unease in the party has made the
:08:24. > :08:29.results worse for them than they should have been, they did pretty
:08:30. > :08:33.well on Thursday. Although UKIP took votes from them in safe seats, in
:08:34. > :08:41.the end, it will not make much difference. UKIP is taking votes
:08:42. > :08:46.from Tories in marginals. It made it appear that Labour have not done
:08:47. > :08:51.well. Diane Abbott was right, a lot of the Labour MPs who came out on
:08:52. > :08:55.Friday morning had been practising their lines in expectation of a
:08:56. > :09:00.disappointing result. In the north, I do not think UKIP's status of the
:09:01. > :09:04.main nonlabour right-wing party will damage Labour. If you have a
:09:05. > :09:11.majority of 25,000... But in the South and Midlands, UKIP could break
:09:12. > :09:15.the non-Tory vote in such a way as to cost Labour marginal seats that
:09:16. > :09:23.they would otherwise win. As for the Tories, look back at 2009, UKIP 116
:09:24. > :09:27.or 17% of the popular vote in the European elections and fell to 3% in
:09:28. > :09:35.the general election. You mentioned Europe, the Tories are anticipating
:09:36. > :09:39.finishing third, they did not do well on Thursday, they seem to be
:09:40. > :09:46.putting everything on Europe, we will beat UKIP in Newark. That is
:09:47. > :09:51.the line I am getting from them. The Liberal Democrats and Labour are
:09:52. > :09:58.nowhere there, they both got 20% of the vote, the Tories got 53%, a
:09:59. > :10:01.majority of 16,000. UKIP do not need to do well to have an enormous
:10:02. > :10:08.increase on last time. This seed is a referendum on Tories against UKIP,
:10:09. > :10:15.which we have not seen so far. I was there for the rocky road packed.
:10:16. > :10:21.David Cameron gave a piece of rocky road to Boris Johnson, saying, you
:10:22. > :10:29.know you want it, Boris. The Tories must be a head, because at the
:10:30. > :10:35.bakery stores, the blue buns outsold the UKIP buns.
:10:36. > :10:39.Ed Miliband bit off more than he could chew when he turned launch
:10:40. > :10:41.into a budgeted last week, but he is not the first politician to make a
:10:42. > :11:36.meal of it. I love a hot pasty, the choice was
:11:37. > :11:43.to have a small one or a large one, and I opted for the large one, and
:11:44. > :11:47.very good it was, too. The significance of the Ed Miliband
:11:48. > :11:54.business is more about the media, we can amplify nothingness, but because
:11:55. > :11:59.the narrative is that Ed Miliband is accident prone, even eating a big
:12:00. > :12:02.concern which becomes an accident. He is deemed to be weird, so we find
:12:03. > :12:08.pictures that support the conclusion. It is a class issue, you
:12:09. > :12:15.reveal your social class by what you eat, what supermarket you go to. You
:12:16. > :12:20.can play somebody accurately. Politicians are largely of a
:12:21. > :12:24.different class from the voters, and as soon as you ask them about food,
:12:25. > :12:29.it becomes apparent. To thine own self be true, David Cameron
:12:30. > :12:34.pretending he was interested in Cornish pasties, he does the cooking
:12:35. > :12:39.at the weekend, lots of posh food, do not pretend to be something you
:12:40. > :12:44.are not. The problem for Ed Miliband with that picture, he has some
:12:45. > :12:49.abnormal people working for him, but what he does not have is a broadcast
:12:50. > :12:53.person who can spot those pictures. George Osborne hired Theo Rogers
:12:54. > :13:00.from the BBC, she has transformed... She may have been
:13:01. > :13:06.guilty of the burger, but she has transformed his image on TV. That is
:13:07. > :13:10.what Ed Miliband needs. You are correct, it Ed Miliband was 15
:13:11. > :13:14.points ahead in the polls, screwing up the eating of a bacon sandwich
:13:15. > :13:20.would be seen as an endearing trait. We might not have even noticed it.
:13:21. > :13:24.That is all this week, you can get those European election results with
:13:25. > :13:30.David Dimbleby on vote went to 14 from 9pm on the BBC News Channel,
:13:31. > :13:35.and from 11pm on BBC One. No programme next week, but we are back
:13:36. > :14:12.in two weeks. If it is Sunday, it is the Sunday Politics.
:14:13. > :14:15.This week, Britain has voted for its Members of the European Parliament.
:14:16. > :14:20.What will the result tell us about the political mood here in Britain