:00:37. > :00:38.Morning folks and welcome to The Sunday Politics,
:00:39. > :00:45.live from the Conservative Conference in Birmingham.
:00:46. > :00:46.There will be one less Conservative MP here after Mark Reckless defected
:00:47. > :00:52.He joins us live from his constituency, where he has
:00:53. > :00:59.It has not been the best of starts for the Prime Minister, as he
:01:00. > :01:02.arrives in Birmingham for the last Tory conference before the election.
:01:03. > :01:05.On top of the Reckless defection, a junior Tory minister has resigned
:01:06. > :01:13.RAF jets have carried out their first mission over Iraq
:01:14. > :01:24.A senior northern Tory gives his verdict on the threat from TKIP
:01:25. > :01:27.And a new property tax to r`ise billions for the NHS ` but `re
:01:28. > :01:33.In London, how the richest 1% are pulling further away, and why those
:01:34. > :01:37.priced out are choosing to move away.
:01:38. > :01:41.And joining me, three of the country's most loyal journalists,
:01:42. > :01:45.who sadly have yet to resign or defect to our inferior rivals.
:01:46. > :01:51.Nick Watt, Polly Toynbee and Janan Ganesh.
:01:52. > :01:54.And, of course, they'll be tweeting throughout the programme.
:01:55. > :01:58.And you too can get involved by using the hashtag #BBCSP.
:01:59. > :02:01.At the current rate of Tory resignations,
:02:02. > :02:04.Mr Cameron could be speaking to an empty hall when he makes his keynote
:02:05. > :02:08.address to the Tory conference here in Birmingham tomorrow.
:02:09. > :02:11.It's been a classic car crash of a start to the conference, with a UKIP
:02:12. > :02:15.defection, a minister shamed into resignation by a sex scandal and
:02:16. > :02:21.Ed Miliband's memory lapses now look like a little local difficulty.
:02:22. > :02:28.Here's what the Prime Minister had to say
:02:29. > :02:41.These things are frustrating and frankly counter-productive and
:02:42. > :02:44.rather senseless. If you want to have a European referendum, if you
:02:45. > :02:47.want to get the deficit down, if you want to build a stronger Britain
:02:48. > :02:52.that we can be proud of, there is only one option, which is to have a
:02:53. > :02:53.Conservative government after the next election.
:02:54. > :03:02.And Mark Reckless joins me now from Rochester.
:03:03. > :03:09.Welcome to the programme. Why did you lie to all your Conservative
:03:10. > :03:13.colleagues and mislead those who elected you? Well, I am keeping
:03:14. > :03:17.faith with my constituents and keeping my promises to them. You
:03:18. > :03:20.heard the Prime Minister saying that the Conservative led government was
:03:21. > :03:25.dealing with the deficit and cutting immigration. The reality is, we have
:03:26. > :03:28.increased the national debt by more in five years than even Labour
:03:29. > :03:33.managed in 13, and immigration is back up to the levels we saw under
:03:34. > :03:38.Labour. I believe in the promises I made in 2010, and I want to keep my
:03:39. > :03:40.words to my electorate, not least to deal with the deficit, cut
:03:41. > :03:45.immigration, reform the political system, to localise powers back to
:03:46. > :03:48.the community, particularly over house-building. The government has
:03:49. > :03:54.broken its word on all those things are. I want to keep my word to my
:03:55. > :04:00.voters here, and that is why I have done what I have done, by moving to
:04:01. > :04:04.UKIP. You have not kept your words to your Conservative constituency
:04:05. > :04:08.chairman. You assured him 48 hours ago that you would not defect, and
:04:09. > :04:13.you left his voice mail on the Conservative Party chairman's office
:04:14. > :04:17.telephone, missing to come to Birmingham to campaign for the
:04:18. > :04:39.Tories. This is your voice mail .. I have just picked up your e-mail ..
:04:40. > :04:43.So, Friday night, telling Grant Shapps you are coming to Birmingham
:04:44. > :04:50.to campaign for the Tories. The next day, you are joining UKIP. Why did
:04:51. > :04:55.you are a? I sounded a bit more hesitant on that call than I usually
:04:56. > :04:58.do, and I am not sure if that was the full conversation. But you
:04:59. > :05:02.cannot discuss these things in advance, you have to make a
:05:03. > :05:06.decision. I have decided the future of this country is better served by
:05:07. > :05:11.UKIP then it is by the Conservative Party under David Cameron. I made a
:05:12. > :05:21.lot of promises to my constituents, and I want to keep those promises.
:05:22. > :05:26.That is why I am moving to UKIP so I can deliver the change this
:05:27. > :05:33.country really needs. In May of this year, you said that Nigel Farage,
:05:34. > :05:37.quote, poses the most serious threat to a Tory victory at the election.
:05:38. > :05:43.So, you agree, voting UKIP means a Labour government? I think voting
:05:44. > :05:47.UKIP means getting UKIP. While in the past a disproportionate number
:05:48. > :05:50.of UKIP people were ex-Conservatives, now, they are
:05:51. > :05:54.winning a lot more people, from all parties. People are so disillusioned
:05:55. > :05:57.with the political class in Westminster, that they have not
:05:58. > :06:02.voted often for a generation. Those are the people Nigel Farage is
:06:03. > :06:07.inspiring, and frankly, he has also inspired me. What he has done in the
:06:08. > :06:08.last 20 years, building his party, getting people from all walks of
:06:09. > :06:15.life, sending up for ordinary people, I think deserves support.
:06:16. > :06:43.That is a key reason why I am moving.
:06:44. > :06:46.That is a key reason why I am about it. It is not credible now to
:06:47. > :06:51.pretend that you are going to do those things. They have omitted to
:06:52. > :06:58.give every Scot ?1600 per year in definitely. If you want to stand up
:06:59. > :06:59.for the English taxpayer, and really tackle the debt, then UKIP are the
:07:00. > :08:23.party be their MP. I am being open and
:08:24. > :08:26.honest, giving people a say. I am trying to do the right thing by my
:08:27. > :08:32.constituents, and whatever the risk is to me personally, I think it is
:08:33. > :08:35.the right thing to do. It is what MPs should be in politics to try and
:08:36. > :08:42.do for the people they represent. Your defection, coming after Douglas
:08:43. > :08:45.Carswell's, confirms the claim that UKIP is largely a depository for
:08:46. > :08:51.disaffected right-wing Tories like yourself, isn't it? On the contrary,
:08:52. > :08:55.the number of people I met in Doncaster yesterday was
:08:56. > :08:59.extraordinary. When I first went to Conservative conferences 20 years
:09:00. > :09:02.ago, there was some enthusiasm for politics, I remember Norman Tebbit
:09:03. > :09:06.speaking against Maastricht, people fought they could change things
:09:07. > :09:11.there was real politics. But I do not think you will see that at
:09:12. > :09:15.Birmingham this week, it is PR people, lobbyists, corporate, few
:09:16. > :09:19.ordinary members of. At Ancaster, people had saved up for months just
:09:20. > :09:24.to get the rail ticket to Doncaster. People who believe in UKIP, who
:09:25. > :09:31.believe in Nigel Farage, who believe in the team, as agents of change,
:09:32. > :09:38.who can actually deal with a political class at Westminster which
:09:39. > :09:41.has let able down. We want proper reform to the political system,
:09:42. > :09:48.which David Cameron promises but does not deliver. Final question -
:09:49. > :09:51.after the next election, the Prime Minister is going to be either David
:09:52. > :09:57.Cameron or Ed Miliband, that is the choice, one or the other - who would
:09:58. > :10:00.you prefer? Well, what we would prefer is to get the most UKIP
:10:01. > :10:08.policies implemented. We want a first rate we want to deal with
:10:09. > :10:13.immigration. I asked about who you wanted to be Prime Minister. We will
:10:14. > :10:18.look at the circumstances. We need as many UKIP MPs as possible, to
:10:19. > :10:31.restore trust in politics. If people vote UKIP, they will get UKIP. How
:10:32. > :10:36.serious is this? I think it is very serious. It is the old Tory disease,
:10:37. > :10:40.destroyed John Major, and it has been bubbling away again. It is
:10:41. > :10:44.beginning to feel like the worst days of Labour in the early nineteen
:10:45. > :10:50.eighties. It matters, because people care passionately. It is nothing
:10:51. > :10:55.like Labour in the early 1980s, it is bad, but it is nothing like that.
:10:56. > :10:59.There are these very strong strands. People like David Davis
:11:00. > :11:02.writing a large piece in the Daily Mail attacking the leader on the
:11:03. > :11:05.first day of the conference. That is the kind of thing that Labour used
:11:06. > :11:11.to do. That is what David Davis does all the time! But this is authentic
:11:12. > :11:17.in the sense that there is a real, genuine dispute about Europe. Some
:11:18. > :11:20.of us were not around in the 19 0s, but I imagine it is pretty bad.
:11:21. > :11:23.There is the short-term problem of the by-election they might lose the
:11:24. > :11:27.media problem of the general election which they cannot win if
:11:28. > :11:30.UKIP remain anywhere near their current level of support. But in
:11:31. > :11:35.many ways the longer term question is the most pressing, which is, does
:11:36. > :11:38.it make sense for the Conservative Party to remain one party, or would
:11:39. > :11:44.it not be better for the hard-core of 20-30 intransigent Eurosceptics
:11:45. > :11:49.to essentially join UKIP or form their own party? At least the
:11:50. > :11:53.Conservatives would become more internally manageable. And probably
:11:54. > :12:00.lose the next election. Probably, yes. That is what you are advising
:12:01. > :12:05.them? If the reward is to have a coherent party in 15 years' time. It
:12:06. > :12:10.is just as well you are a columnist, not a party strategist. I
:12:11. > :12:15.was an anorak in the 1980s, who watched the Labour conference on the
:12:16. > :12:20.TV. Were you wearing your anorak? Of course I was, that is how sad I am.
:12:21. > :12:24.But once again the crisis from UKIP has forced the Prime Minister to
:12:25. > :12:29.step in an even more Eurosceptic direction. Said on television what
:12:30. > :12:34.he was trying not to say, which is that if he does not get his way in
:12:35. > :12:38.the European negotiations, he will recommend to the British people that
:12:39. > :12:42.we should go. He began by saying, as I have always said, and when they
:12:43. > :12:46.say that, you know they are saying something new. He basically said,
:12:47. > :12:52.Britain should not stay if it is not in Britain's interests. I think this
:12:53. > :12:59.is big stakes for both the Tories and four UKIP. The Tories are able
:13:00. > :13:02.to write off Clacton. Rochester is number 271 on the UKIP friendly
:13:03. > :13:07.list. If the Tories win it, big moment for them. If UKIP lose it,
:13:08. > :13:19.this strategy of various will be facing a bit of a setback.
:13:20. > :13:22.To what extent are Mark Reckless's views shared by Conservative
:13:23. > :13:26.The Sunday Politics commissioned an exclusive poll of Conservative
:13:27. > :13:31.Pollsters ComRes spoke to over ,000 councillors -
:13:32. > :13:34.that's almost an eighth of their council base - and Eleanor Garnier
:13:35. > :13:47.There is not a single party conference at the seaside this year,
:13:48. > :13:51.and Sunday Politics could not get through them all without a trip to
:13:52. > :13:55.the coast. So here we are on the shore in Sussex. There are plenty of
:13:56. > :14:00.Conservative councillors here, and Tory MPs as well, but one challenge
:14:01. > :14:06.they all face is UKIP, who have got their sights on coastal towns.
:14:07. > :14:10.Places like Worthing East and surer and, with high numbers of
:14:11. > :14:15.pensioners, providing rich pickings for UKIP. In West Sussex, the Tories
:14:16. > :14:22.run the county council, but UKIP are the official opposition, with ten
:14:23. > :14:26.councillors. We cannot lose any more ground to UKIP. If we lose any more
:14:27. > :14:30.ground, if you look at the way it has swung from us to them, it is
:14:31. > :14:34.getting near to being the middle point, where we might start losing
:14:35. > :14:43.seats which we have always regarded as safe seats. So, it has got to be
:14:44. > :14:46.stemmed, it cannot go any further. Our exclusive survey looked at the
:14:47. > :14:51.policy areas where the Conservatives are vulnerable to UKIP. If an EU
:14:52. > :14:58.Referendum Bill is called tomorrow, 45% say they would vote to leave,
:14:59. > :15:10.39% would stay in. Asked about immigration...
:15:11. > :15:18.It was those issues, Europe and immigration, that Mark Reckless said
:15:19. > :15:22.were the head of his decision. I promised to cut immigration while
:15:23. > :15:28.treating people fairly and humanely. I cannot keep that promise as a
:15:29. > :15:32.Conservative, I can keep it as UKIP. When asked if Conservative
:15:33. > :15:37.councillors would like an electoral pact with UKIP in the run-up to the
:15:38. > :15:43.general election, one third said they support the idea. 63% are
:15:44. > :15:48.opposed and 7% don't know. Conservative councillors who left
:15:49. > :15:55.the party to join UKIP say it wasn't easy. I left because basically the
:15:56. > :16:01.Conservatives left me. I saw it as a difficult decision to change, but
:16:02. > :16:10.what I was seeing with UKIP was freed. Me being able to speak for my
:16:11. > :16:14.residents. Back to our survey and on climate change 49% said it was
:16:15. > :16:21.happening, but that humans are not to blame. Our survey showed that 60%
:16:22. > :16:27.think David Cameron was wrong to pursue legalising gay marriage, with
:16:28. > :16:32.31% saying it was the right thing to do and 9% not sure. In Worthing
:16:33. > :16:38.councillors said gay marriage was divisive. That has really been an
:16:39. > :16:46.issue here, it might have damaged the party slightly, and I think in a
:16:47. > :16:51.way by setting a rule like that it is a very religious thing and it is
:16:52. > :16:57.almost trying to play God to make that decision. But some of the
:16:58. > :17:02.party's toughest decisions have been over the economy. 56% in our survey
:17:03. > :17:08.thought the spending cuts the Government has so far announced have
:17:09. > :17:14.not gone far enough. 6% were not sure. They are prepared for
:17:15. > :17:18.difficult decisions, but local activists say the party's voice must
:17:19. > :17:24.be clearer. I think the message has to be more forceful, it has to be
:17:25. > :17:30.specially targeted to the ex-Conservative voters who now vote
:17:31. > :17:34.UKIP, especially in this area, the vast majority of UKIP people are
:17:35. > :17:38.disillusioned Conservatives. The message has to be loud and strong,
:17:39. > :17:43.come back and we are the party to give you what you want. With just
:17:44. > :17:48.eight months until the general election, the pressure is on and
:17:49. > :17:54.local Conservatives are searching for clues to help their party stem
:17:55. > :18:00.the flow of defections. Joining me now is William Hague, the former
:18:01. > :18:04.Foreign Secretary and the Leader of the House of Commons.
:18:05. > :18:08.Tories like Mark Reckless are defecting to UKIP because they don't
:18:09. > :18:13.trust the party leadership to deliver on Europe, do they? They
:18:14. > :18:18.believe people like you and David Cameron will campaign to stay in and
:18:19. > :18:25.they are right. They said before they defected that people should
:18:26. > :18:30.vote Conservative to get a referendum on Europe, and that is
:18:31. > :18:35.right of course. The only way to get a referendum is to do that and this
:18:36. > :18:39.is the point, the people should decide. However a future government
:18:40. > :18:45.decides it will campaign, it should be the people of the country who
:18:46. > :18:49.decide. Can you say to our viewers this morning that is not enough
:18:50. > :18:54.powers are repatriated back to Britain, you would want to come
:18:55. > :19:00.out, can you say that? Our objective is to get those powers and stay in.
:19:01. > :19:05.The answer to the question is I won't be deciding, David Cameron
:19:06. > :19:11.won't be deciding, you the voters will be deciding. But you have to
:19:12. > :19:16.give us your view. If you don't get enough powers back, would you vote
:19:17. > :19:22.to come out and recommended? Our objective is to get those powers and
:19:23. > :19:27.be able to stay in. You just get endless speculation years in
:19:28. > :19:31.advance. I will decide at the time how I will vote. Surely that is the
:19:32. > :19:37.rational position for everyone to take but I want a referendum to take
:19:38. > :19:42.place. I understand that. As you pointed out to Mark Reckless just
:19:43. > :19:46.now, unless there is a Conservative government, people won't have that
:19:47. > :19:55.choice. Under a Labour government they will not get a choice at all.
:19:56. > :19:59.Our survey of Tory councillors shows that almost 50% would vote to leave
:20:00. > :20:06.the EU in a referendum. I think it showed, wasn't it 45, and 39%, but
:20:07. > :20:12.again, I'm pretty sure they will decide at the time. They will want
:20:13. > :20:17.to see what a future government achieves in a renegotiation before
:20:18. > :20:20.they decide what to vote in a referendum. Unless David Cameron is
:20:21. > :20:29.Prime Minister and there is a Conservative government, there will
:20:30. > :20:33.not be a renegotiation. That is a point you have made four times. I
:20:34. > :20:36.think they have got it. Your Cabinet colleague says we should not be
:20:37. > :20:41.scared of quitting the EU, but you went native in the Foreign Office,
:20:42. > :20:47.didn't you? You used to be a Eurosceptic, you are now the Foreign
:20:48. > :20:51.Office line man. No, I don't think so! We brought back the first
:20:52. > :20:59.reduced European budget ever in history. Even Margaret Thatcher ..
:21:00. > :21:03.Leaving the EU scares you, doesn't it? Not much scares me after 26
:21:04. > :21:12.years in politics but we want to do the best thing for the country.
:21:13. > :21:17.Where we scared when we got us out of liability for Eurozone bailouts?
:21:18. > :21:20.We were not scared of anybody. People said we couldn't achieve
:21:21. > :21:27.things but we negotiated these things. We can do that with a wider
:21:28. > :21:34.negotiation in Europe. Mr Reckless says he cannot keep the Conservative
:21:35. > :21:48.promise to tackle immigration. You have failed to keep your promise to
:21:49. > :21:53.keep net immigration down. You promised to cut it below 100,00 ,
:21:54. > :22:12.you failed. It is over 200,000 people. We have cut it from 250 000
:22:13. > :22:19.in 2005, the last figures were 240,000. I think we can file that
:22:20. > :22:24.under F four failed. It includes students, we want them in the
:22:25. > :22:29.country. You knew that when you made the promise. But has it come down?
:22:30. > :22:35.Yes, it has. Have we stopped the promise. But has it come down?
:22:36. > :22:40.coming here because of our benefit system? Yes. None of that happened
:22:41. > :22:45.under Labour. If Mark Reckless had his way, it would be more likely we
:22:46. > :22:51.would have a Labour government. They have an open door policy on
:22:52. > :22:57.immigration. You are not just losing MPs to UKIP, you are losing voters.
:22:58. > :23:01.Polling by Michael Ashcroft shows that 20% of people who voted Tory in
:23:02. > :23:06.2010 have abandoned youth and three quarters of them are voting UKIP
:23:07. > :23:13.now. We will see in the general election. Politics is very fluid in
:23:14. > :23:17.this country and we shouldn't deny that in any way but UKIP thought
:23:18. > :23:21.they were going to win the by-election in Newark, we had a
:23:22. > :23:26.thumping Conservative victory, and I think opinion polls are snapshots of
:23:27. > :23:31.opinion now. They are not forecast of the general election and we will
:23:32. > :23:35.be doing everything we can to get our message across. Today we are
:23:36. > :23:39.announcing 3 million more apprenticeships in the next
:23:40. > :23:45.Parliament. I think this is what people will be voting on, rather
:23:46. > :23:52.than who has defected. Your activist base once parked with UKIP. Our
:23:53. > :23:59.survey shows a third of Tory councillors would like a formal pact
:24:00. > :24:08.with UKIP. Why not? It shows two thirds are against it. No, it shows
:24:09. > :24:14.one third want it. I read the figures, it showed 67% don't want
:24:15. > :24:19.it. We are not going to make a pact with other parties, and they don't
:24:20. > :24:25.work in the British electoral system even if they were desirable. You are
:24:26. > :24:31.sharing the Cabinet committee on English votes for English laws. Is
:24:32. > :24:35.further devolution for Scotland conditional on progress towards
:24:36. > :24:39.English devolution? No, the commitment to Scotland is
:24:40. > :24:43.unconditional. We will meet the commitments to Scotland but we
:24:44. > :24:47.believe, we the Conservatives believe, that in tandem with that we
:24:48. > :24:52.have to resolve these questions about fairness to the rest of the UK
:24:53. > :24:57.as well. That will depend on other parties or the general election
:24:58. > :25:03.result. Are you committed to the Gordon Brown timetable? Yes,
:25:04. > :25:07.absolutely. So you are committed to producing draft legislation by Burns
:25:08. > :25:13.night, that is at the end of January. Will you produce proposals
:25:14. > :25:17.for English votes on English laws by then? We will, but whether they are
:25:18. > :25:24.agreed across the parties will depend on the other parties. There
:25:25. > :25:31.was no sign that they were agreeable at the Labour conference. We will
:25:32. > :25:35.produce our ideas on the same timetable as the timetable for
:25:36. > :25:37.Scottish devolution. You will therefore bring forward proposals
:25:38. > :27:24.for English votes for therefore bring forward proposals
:27:25. > :27:29.that seems to be in perpetuity. It is widely regarded as being unfair
:27:30. > :27:34.to Wales and many of the poorer English regions. Why do you
:27:35. > :27:40.perpetuate it? It will become less relevant overtime if more
:27:41. > :27:46.tax-raising powers... It goes all the way back to the 1970s, we made a
:27:47. > :27:51.commitment on that, we will keep our commitments to Scotland as more --
:27:52. > :27:59.but as more tax-raising powers devolved, the Barnett formula is
:28:00. > :28:04.less significant. If you transfer ?5 billion of tax-raising powers to
:28:05. > :28:08.Scotland, 5 billion comes off the Barnett formula? It will be a lot
:28:09. > :28:13.more complicated than that, but yes, as their own decisions about
:28:14. > :28:19.taxation are made, the grand from Westminster will go down. And you
:28:20. > :28:23.can guarantee that if there is a majority Conservative government,
:28:24. > :28:27.there will be English votes for English laws after the election
:28:28. > :28:31.Yes, I stress again that there are different ways of doing it but if
:28:32. > :28:35.there is no cross-party agreement on that, the Conservatives will produce
:28:36. > :28:40.our proposals and campaign for them in the general election. Don't go
:28:41. > :28:46.away because I want to move on to some other matters.
:28:47. > :28:48.Now to the fight against so-called Islamic State terrorists.
:28:49. > :28:51.Yesterday, RAF Tornado jets carried out their first flights over Iraq
:28:52. > :28:54.since MPs gave their approval for air-strikes against the militants.
:28:55. > :29:02.When you face a situation with psychobabble -- psychopathic killers
:29:03. > :29:06.who have already brutally beheaded one of our own citizens, who have
:29:07. > :29:11.already launched and tried to execute plots in our own country to
:29:12. > :29:17.maim innocent people, we have a choice - we can either stand back
:29:18. > :29:21.from this and say it is too difficult, let's let someone else
:29:22. > :29:24.try to keep our country safe, or we take the correct decision to have a
:29:25. > :29:29.full, comprehensive strategy but let's be prepared to play our role
:29:30. > :29:33.to make sure these people cannot do not trust harm.
:29:34. > :29:37.And William Hague is still with me - until July he was, of course,
:29:38. > :29:49.Why have only six Tornado jets being mobilised? Do not assume that is all
:29:50. > :29:53.that will be taking part in this operation. That is all that has been
:29:54. > :30:00.announced and I do not think we should speculate. Even the Danes are
:30:01. > :30:02.sending more fighter jets. There is no restriction in the House of
:30:03. > :30:09.Commons resolution passed on Friday on what we can do. So why so
:30:10. > :30:14.little? Do not underestimate what our Tornados can do. They have some
:30:15. > :30:18.unique capabilities, capabilities which have been specifically asked
:30:19. > :30:22.for by our allies. When you are on the wrong end of six Tornados, it
:30:23. > :30:27.will not feel like a small effort. But there will be other things which
:30:28. > :30:31.can add to that effort. We are joining in a month after the
:30:32. > :30:36.operation started, we are late, we are behind America, France,
:30:37. > :30:40.Australia, Jordan, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, one hand tied behind our
:30:41. > :30:45.backs cause of the rule about not attacking Syria - why is the British
:30:46. > :30:49.government leading from behind? First of all, we are a democratic
:30:50. > :30:54.country, and you know all about Parliamentary approval. You could
:30:55. > :30:59.have recalled parliament. We have done that, with a political
:31:00. > :31:04.consensus. Other European countries also took the decision on Friday to
:31:05. > :31:06.send their military assets. Our allies are absolutely content with
:31:07. > :31:10.that, and Britain will play an important role, along with many
:31:11. > :31:17.other nations, including Arab nations. General Sir David Richards
:31:18. > :31:23.Sheriff, who just steps down as the Nato Deputy Supreme Commander, he
:31:24. > :31:25.condemns the spineless lack of leadership and the absence of any
:31:26. > :31:36.credible strategy. It is embarrassing,isn't it? Of course,
:31:37. > :31:39.they turn into armchair generals. We are playing an important role, we
:31:40. > :31:44.are a democratic country. Your viewers will remember, we had a vote
:31:45. > :31:48.last year on military action in Syria and we were defeated in the
:31:49. > :31:52.House of Commons, a bad moment for our foreign policy. We have taken
:31:53. > :31:55.care to bring this forward when we can win a vote in the House of
:31:56. > :32:04.Commons, and that is how we will proceed. The air Chief Marshal until
:32:05. > :32:09.recently in charge of the RAF, he says, it makes no sense to bomb Iraq
:32:10. > :32:15.but not Syria. He calls the decision ludicrous. Of course, it DOES make
:32:16. > :32:23.sense to bomb Iraq, because the Iraqi government has asked for our
:32:24. > :32:27.assistance. This came up a lot in the debate on Friday, and the Prime
:32:28. > :32:33.Minister explained, similar to what I have just been saying, that there
:32:34. > :32:37.is not a political consensus about Syria in the House of Commons. When
:32:38. > :32:40.we did it last year, we were defeated, and it was described by
:32:41. > :32:46.all commentators as a huge blow to the government and to our foreign
:32:47. > :32:49.policy. So, we will bring forward proposals when there is a majority
:32:50. > :32:55.in this country to do so in the House of Commons. Professor Michael
:32:56. > :33:01.Clarke, one of the world top experts on military strategy and history, he
:33:02. > :33:06.says there are very few important IS targets in northern Iraq, that they
:33:07. > :33:10.are all in Syria, and we are limiting ourselves to the periphery
:33:11. > :33:13.of the campaign. First of all, just because you are not doing everything
:33:14. > :33:18.does not mean you should not do something. Secondly, the United
:33:19. > :33:21.States and other countries are engaged in the action against
:33:22. > :33:27.targets in Syria. This is a coalition effort, with people doing
:33:28. > :33:31.different things. Thirdly, if we were to put their proposal to the
:33:32. > :33:35.House of Commons tomorrow, and it was defeated, we would not have
:33:36. > :33:40.achieved a great deal. You do not know it would have been defeated.
:33:41. > :33:44.The Labour Party has given no indication they would have supported
:33:45. > :33:48.that. So, you are hostage to the Labour Party? We have to win a
:33:49. > :33:51.democratic vote in the House of Commons, and the Labour Party is a
:33:52. > :33:57.very large part of the House of Commons. You are asking us to pursue
:33:58. > :34:02.a policy which at the moment could be defeated in Parliament. Is it not
:34:03. > :34:07.embarrassing to be on the wrong side of so many of these military
:34:08. > :34:12.experts? Why should we trust the judgment of here today, gone
:34:13. > :34:18.tomorrow, politicians? We have the military experts with us now. We
:34:19. > :34:22.have a national security council, we do not have sofa government, unlike
:34:23. > :34:26.the last government. The national security council is chaired by the
:34:27. > :34:33.Prime Minister. Alongside the Chief of Defence Staff and the heads of
:34:34. > :34:38.the intelligence agencies. And we take decisions together with the
:34:39. > :34:43.people who have the information now. So, you will know what British
:34:44. > :34:48.and American intelligence says about Syria. The Prime Minister has said
:34:49. > :34:52.there is a danger that the British-born jihadists will come
:34:53. > :34:55.back and attack us. But the intelligence reports which you will
:34:56. > :35:00.have seen are clear - Al-Qaeda and its associates are selecting,
:35:01. > :35:06.indoctrinating and training jihadists in Syria, not Iraq. Does
:35:07. > :35:13.that not make the Syrian exclusion even more ludicrous? I cannot
:35:14. > :35:18.comment on intelligence. Is the situation in Syria I direct threat
:35:19. > :35:24.to this country? Yes, it is. Have we excluded action? No, we haven't
:35:25. > :35:29.Could you come back to the House? The Prime Minister said, it was in
:35:30. > :35:32.the motion put to the House of Commons, that if we want to take
:35:33. > :35:37.action in Syria, we will come back to the House of Commons. But we have
:35:38. > :35:43.not taken any decision about that and we would not do so if we thought
:35:44. > :35:46.we were going to be defeated again. The government supports US strikes
:35:47. > :35:53.on Syria, show you must relieve they are legal. Either way the legal
:35:54. > :35:57.basis differs from one country to another, according to their reading
:35:58. > :36:02.of international law. But you have supported it. We do believe that
:36:03. > :36:07.they and Arab countries are taking action legally and we support their
:36:08. > :36:13.action. But I understand your legitimate questions. But it comes
:36:14. > :36:20.back to your basic question, why in Iraq and not Syria. Nonetheless it
:36:21. > :36:25.is important to take action in Iraq. We are also engaged in Syria
:36:26. > :36:31.in building up the political strength of the more moderate
:36:32. > :36:34.opposition and in trying to bring about a peace agreement, and we do
:36:35. > :36:41.not exclude action in Syria in the future. If we propose doing
:36:42. > :36:46.something, then we ask for the specific legal advice. Why would you
:36:47. > :36:51.not ask for the legal advice anyway? Because you have to be sure
:36:52. > :36:55.of the legal advice at the time and also we do not comment on the advice
:36:56. > :37:00.given to us by the Law officers Mr Blair ended up publishing his. That
:37:01. > :37:05.was because there was a huge legal dispute. So you have not had legal
:37:06. > :37:10.advice yet that Britain attacking Syria would be legal? The legal
:37:11. > :37:13.situation is unlikely to be the barrier in this case, let me put it
:37:14. > :37:23.that way. Within international law, you can act in the event of extreme
:37:24. > :37:26.humanitarian distress and elective self-defence, so one can imagine
:37:27. > :37:28.strong legal justification, but of course, we will take the legal
:37:29. > :37:30.advice at the time. watching The Sunday Politics. We say
:37:31. > :37:35.goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who Scotland. Coming up here in 20
:37:36. > :37:47.minutes, The Week Ahead. Hello
:37:48. > :37:49.and welcome to your local p`rt of the show ` live with all thd latest
:37:50. > :37:52.political news and debate as it Labour's big idea to save
:37:53. > :37:56.the NHS is to tax We'll find out if that's won
:37:57. > :38:01.the support of voters in a key Talking about that `
:38:02. > :38:06.and the rest of the party conference news ` including
:38:07. > :38:08.the latest crisis to engulf the Conservative party ` is the
:38:09. > :38:11.North East's newest Tory Pedr, Lord Callanan ` and the Labour MP
:38:12. > :38:13.for Middlesbrough We'll also be asking Ed Milhband and
:38:14. > :38:19.Nigel Farage the same questhon ` And let's start with the disarray
:38:20. > :38:28.in the Tory party after that ministerial resignation
:38:29. > :38:31.and defection to UKIP ` it lade for a pretty unpleasant start to Sunday
:38:32. > :38:48.for Conservatives in the north. Probably not the start of the
:38:49. > :38:53.conference that you wanted. . Now, we have had better start to the
:38:54. > :38:59.conference season. It is a distraction and should be treated as
:39:00. > :39:04.such. I hope that sometime through the week we will get onto the main
:39:05. > :39:09.issues, which is to show th`t we are dealing with the economy
:39:10. > :39:15.successfully, managing the country properly and get through thd next
:39:16. > :39:22.election and how we want to govern afterwords. One issue you whll have
:39:23. > :39:28.to deal with is UKIP. They had a good conference, more defections, to
:39:29. > :39:37.Conservative MPs have gone over How big a threat are they? They are big
:39:38. > :39:42.threat to every party. We whll see as the when the by`elections and get
:39:43. > :39:46.elected. They have no members of Parliament. When it comes to the
:39:47. > :39:51.general election, people will realise it is a straight choice
:39:52. > :39:56.tween whether they want Davhd Cameron are Ed Miliband as prime
:39:57. > :40:04.minister. Our system is first past the post. Nigel Farage says he is
:40:05. > :40:11.parking his stake on your l`wn. I you worried? I am not compl`cent.
:40:12. > :40:15.People are wanting change, they want better conductivity with thdir
:40:16. > :40:19.politicians, they want us to be listening more. That is right. It is
:40:20. > :40:24.our job in the Labour Party to respond more to the people who will
:40:25. > :40:33.be voting in the next gener`l election, to be responding to their
:40:34. > :40:43.concerns. Are they tapping hnto concerns? They are. In the Duropean
:40:44. > :40:50.elections, the local elections that we have just had, they had ` strong
:40:51. > :40:52.showing. It remains whether that will be translated into a gdneral
:40:53. > :40:53.election. Well of course perhaps
:40:54. > :40:55.the most significant development this week was the decision
:40:56. > :40:58.by MPs to back RAF air strikes The Penrith and the
:40:59. > :41:01.Border Conservative MP Rory Stewart, who chairs the defence select
:41:02. > :41:04.committee and visited Iraq last month, was among those who backed
:41:05. > :41:06.the Government's position ` so too did most of the region's
:41:07. > :41:09.Labour and Liberal Democrat MPs But three north east Labour MPs `
:41:10. > :41:11.Blyth's Ronnie Campbell, Jarrow's Stephen Hepburn
:41:12. > :41:25.and Easington's Grahame Morris Andy McDonald, there are three of
:41:26. > :41:30.your colleagues there. Do you have sympathy with the way they voted?
:41:31. > :41:35.Huge sympathy with the way they voted. You do not take thesd
:41:36. > :41:41.decisions lightly. I respect the decisions they made. I thought we
:41:42. > :41:46.need to act to repel a genocide People come here what is happening
:41:47. > :41:55.in Iraq now with what happened in 2003. We have psychopaths r`mpaging
:41:56. > :42:00.across Iraq killing Muslims, Christians, and we cannot stand by
:42:01. > :42:05.and allow that to happen. I think this has been the right response. It
:42:06. > :42:10.was not an easy response by any means, but I think it was the right
:42:11. > :42:15.one. Have you got any idea of what your constituents views are on this?
:42:16. > :42:22.The views you get are often via e`mail in these situations. I have
:42:23. > :42:28.got to say there wasn't the outcry that I was expecting. A lot of
:42:29. > :42:32.people were supporting the decision made. Speaking to people yesterday
:42:33. > :42:43.evening, they were supportive of the difficulties. Tony Blair dalaged his
:42:44. > :42:48.reputation by taking action and Iraq. His David Cameron dond the
:42:49. > :42:53.same? I listen to the debatd in the House of Commons and I listdn to
:42:54. > :42:59.passionate speeches on both sides, politics at its best. I respect
:43:00. > :43:07.those who voted against milhtary action, and I respect the f`ct that
:43:08. > :43:11.they help those views. We h`ve these distractions and defections and
:43:12. > :43:15.resignations, let's get back to the big issues. Our brave men and women
:43:16. > :43:19.are putting their lives on the line to defend our freedoms and to do
:43:20. > :43:26.vendor a right to exist peacefully, and that is a very grave matter We
:43:27. > :43:27.will see what happens with those developments.
:43:28. > :43:29.Now attention may be turning to the Conservative gathering in Bhrmingham
:43:30. > :43:32.but Labour's final conference before the General Election centred on what
:43:33. > :43:36.They plan to increase the NHS budget by ?2.5 billion a year,
:43:37. > :43:39.funded by a so`called "manshon tax" on the most expensive properties `
:43:40. > :43:42.as well as a levy on tobacco firms and new tax avoidance measures.
:43:43. > :43:45.So how has the idea gone down in the seats
:43:46. > :44:07.An affluent part of the reghon, helped by a Conservative MP, but not
:44:08. > :44:16.by much. His majority was 332 at the last election. As Mr Miliband's
:44:17. > :44:22.speech came through, our voters here getting his message? I am a GP. He
:44:23. > :44:27.said he would get a thousand more GPs. The local training schdme
:44:28. > :44:47.cannot fill all its vacancids, so I do not know
:44:48. > :44:49.down rapidly. The NHS is in crisis suddenly. It does not compute. I did
:44:50. > :45:00.not think he went through it clear enough. He topped a lot abott
:45:01. > :45:03.raising money for the NHS. `` he spoke a lot about. I do not believe
:45:04. > :46:30.it. One idea is a mansion t`x. very concerned about the NHS. Where
:46:31. > :46:37.I live, people are waiting tp to three weeks for a GP appointment.
:46:38. > :46:43.The idea we would have 8000 more GPs would make a massive differdnce The
:46:44. > :46:47.NHS will be the big issue at the next election. But we'll Labour
:46:48. > :47:00.Party Mac fans for financing it when Labour `` fans outside of its main
:47:01. > :47:06.voting core. People are beghnning to work out it is not simple. Ht is a
:47:07. > :47:10.basic principle of taxation in this country, those with the bro`dest
:47:11. > :47:17.shoulders make the biggest contribution. This is the w`y to do
:47:18. > :47:23.it. You are looking at part of it as being raised from tobacco companies.
:47:24. > :47:28.It is entirely right that you try and put the fun together to address
:47:29. > :47:32.the needs that are manifesthng themselves now with these shortages.
:47:33. > :47:40.It would be quicker and simpler if we said our health service needs
:47:41. > :47:44.more money. We will increasd tax on incomes to help it. It is dhfficult
:47:45. > :47:51.to make ends meet now. If you ask people who are struggling to pay
:47:52. > :47:55.income tax at the moment, there response would be that therd is a
:47:56. > :48:05.better way to do it. There `re concerns about the NHS and hts
:48:06. > :48:09.future. It has started to unravel. People's suspicions are right. There
:48:10. > :48:13.are not that many large houses. People would worry about how much
:48:14. > :48:18.the houses are worth. Peopld live in big houses but may not have much of
:48:19. > :48:25.an income. This would start off as a mansion tax and then move on to
:48:26. > :48:30.people in more modest sized houses. It would have to be to raisd any
:48:31. > :48:34.significant sums. They see `ll these measures together would raise ? .5
:48:35. > :48:42.billion. It sounds a lot, btt the health service budget has bden
:48:43. > :48:52.raised by much more than th`t already this year. In practhce it
:48:53. > :48:59.will not work. People would not argue that the figures are not
:49:00. > :49:04.backed up. We are demonstrating that we are recruiting more doctors, more
:49:05. > :49:08.nurses, more GPs into the hdalth service and we are already
:49:09. > :49:11.increasing the budget. But ht has to take its place eggs against all the
:49:12. > :49:26.other priorities, housing, education. People will seek to raise
:49:27. > :49:32.any significant sums of mondy, they will need to go after peopld in more
:49:33. > :49:36.modest sized homes. We need to get the economy growing again, we need
:49:37. > :49:45.people and businesses to pax more in taxation. If we are be elected, it
:49:46. > :49:55.will increase in future also. It is becoming clear ill will not work. I
:49:56. > :50:02.think it will work. `` it whll not. This lot came into power in 201 and
:50:03. > :50:06.said there would be no top`down changes. Every time we go into
:50:07. > :50:13.office we are having to put it right. We are getting same story
:50:14. > :50:18.now. You have to value all these homes, people will argue about it.
:50:19. > :50:23.If the Tories are so concerned that this plan will not work, whx will be
:50:24. > :50:34.not let our plans be submitted to the OBR? What are they scardd of
:50:35. > :50:43.West remarked the truth is xou have not set a plan yet post`election.
:50:44. > :50:48.Whatever money you put in now, is not enough. It will never bd enough
:50:49. > :50:51.of the National Health servhce. Every year of this government we
:50:52. > :50:57.have spent more on the National Health service. That will continue.
:50:58. > :51:06.It is about proper management, increasing efficiencies within the
:51:07. > :51:13.service. Labour started the privatisation process with opt outs.
:51:14. > :51:17.And we have continued with that and those proposals. The Labour Party
:51:18. > :51:21.want to scare people on this. Last year Andy Burnham had their
:51:22. > :51:26.campaign, 24`hour is to savd the National Health service. Of course
:51:27. > :51:30.that faces challenges, but we are dealing with them. We need to look
:51:31. > :51:36.at it in line with the other issues that need further public spdnding.
:51:37. > :51:39.Now, like buses, you wait ages for one Labour policy ` then
:51:40. > :51:42.The party revealed this week it intends to scrap
:51:43. > :51:45.Police Commissioners ` only two years after they were established.
:51:46. > :51:48.Labour says that would save ?50 million which could be put back
:51:49. > :51:51.But the Labour politicians who've been doing the job `
:51:52. > :51:54.like Northumbria's Vera Baird ` say they've achieved "a great ddal" She
:51:55. > :51:56.warned against going back to the days of unelected and
:51:57. > :52:17.Those of us who have gone into it have made the best of it. They will
:52:18. > :52:21.ask the police commissioners who are Labour to join in. The thred
:52:22. > :52:23.north`eastern once you have good relationships with their chhef
:52:24. > :52:27.constables have been involvdd. Well let's talk to David Clhff,
:52:28. > :52:29.a management consultant who's currently doing a research project
:52:30. > :52:40.at Sunderland University looking at I know you are at early stages with
:52:41. > :52:44.your studies. What are you hn cling so far? I think it is very darly to
:52:45. > :52:50.make any form of judgement on what is a fundamental change in how we
:52:51. > :52:55.police. We are working towards policing by consent. It was to
:52:56. > :53:00.achieve a re`connection with the public that the previous structures
:53:01. > :53:04.were felt not to properly address. Some concerns have been expressed
:53:05. > :53:09.about the expense concerned. Police and Crime Commissioner is in this
:53:10. > :53:14.country are not on top of the police hierarchy, they are not operational
:53:15. > :53:19.officers as the term refers to in other countries. It refers to the
:53:20. > :53:23.commissioning role. When we talk about savings around the rule, we
:53:24. > :53:33.have to look at the best value extracted from the oversight of a
:53:34. > :53:38.large constabulary and how we pay for staff across the police. Could
:53:39. > :53:45.you said that we could be qtite hasty and say get rid? Any system
:53:46. > :53:48.needs fine tuning. There has been a lot of antipathy towards policing
:53:49. > :54:00.crime commission is. We nevdr had that with police authorities. ``
:54:01. > :54:04.commissioners. We are seeing is the whole of the policing systel. It has
:54:05. > :54:09.been brought centrestage by these posts. The debate they are
:54:10. > :54:14.generating is healthy. The voter turnouts have been terrible for
:54:15. > :54:27.these. Is there evidence yet of public engagement in these roles? We
:54:28. > :54:31.had 16 to 22% turnout anywax. I think what we're dealing with is an
:54:32. > :54:36.awful lot of public and votdr in Ayrshire around crime and dhsorder
:54:37. > :54:40.issues. Primarily we did not vote for the previous structures and
:54:41. > :54:47.their aspects of private service that we do vote on. I think it is a
:54:48. > :54:57.very interesting phenomena hn terms of where we are going polithcally.
:54:58. > :55:01.`` in Ayrshire. We need to have notifications in a system that is
:55:02. > :55:06.evolving and we need to see how this pans out over a couple of tdrms
:55:07. > :55:12.Thank you very much. Do you have to accept that in terms of the public,
:55:13. > :55:20.it has been a bit of a dud? There was a low turnout in local dlections
:55:21. > :55:25.as well as elections were police commissioners. It is easy for me to
:55:26. > :55:29.say yes let's abolish them. That is not to say the role cannot be
:55:30. > :55:35.effective if the right person gets elected to it. I am a strong
:55:36. > :55:37.supporter of it. It is about time we introduce some democratic
:55:38. > :55:43.accountability into our polhce force. I think it will take time to
:55:44. > :55:47.bed in. If you get is a mothvator to, and it is going individtals and
:55:48. > :55:51.the role, I think they can lake a difference and engage with the
:55:52. > :55:59.public. I think it is rated to do it and I think we should continue with
:56:00. > :56:05.it. You have decided to scr`p them. It has not cut the public's
:56:06. > :56:16.imagination. The last turnott for the last police commissioner
:56:17. > :56:21.by`election was 10%. There light be a better way to do this thing. We
:56:22. > :56:25.can learn a lot of lessons from some of the excellent practice that we
:56:26. > :56:28.have seen over the last few years. In the north`east we have bden
:56:29. > :56:32.blessed by three excellent commissioners who have done a great
:56:33. > :56:48.job in engaging with the vi` `` public. When India was annotnced as
:56:49. > :56:51.being out of control. There is no suggestion that we turn back the
:56:52. > :57:01.clock and go back to police authorities. If you have got a
:57:02. > :57:05.secretary, all that expertise can be retained. We have got to be
:57:06. > :57:10.thoughtful how we extract the best practice. There has been a lot of
:57:11. > :57:16.heads knocking together which has been to the benefit to our
:57:17. > :57:20.communities. We were promisdd lots of independence and we got lots of
:57:21. > :57:26.party politicians. A few independents have been elected. As
:57:27. > :57:31.Andy said, at some of them `re doing good jobs in certain areas. They are
:57:32. > :57:35.increasing accountability, they do need to make themselves better
:57:36. > :57:40.known. As those roles develop and as individuals do different thhngs
:57:41. > :57:41.around the country, the perception on these positions will change over
:57:42. > :57:44.time. Now local councillors make
:57:45. > :57:47.the news for all sorts of rdasons ` disputes over planning, expdnses
:57:48. > :57:49.rows, spats over budgets etcetera. But this week two Newcastle
:57:50. > :57:51.councillors hit the headlinds Here's Fergus with that ` and the
:57:52. > :58:01.rest of the news ` in 60 seconds. Go North East and Stagecoach
:58:02. > :58:03.oppose the idea, but Labour said this week they would
:58:04. > :58:06.return control of bus services in The Barnett Formula,
:58:07. > :58:09.which allocates more governlent money to Scotland than to Northern
:58:10. > :58:11.England, needs to be urgently The North in particular,
:58:12. > :58:14.has been disadvantaged A Newcastle councillor has been
:58:15. > :58:20.shot with a rubber bullet dtring a David Stockdale was travellhng with
:58:21. > :58:24.fellow councillor Dipu Ahad who himself was arrested and held
:58:25. > :58:27.by Israeli Defence Forces. A tear gas canister landed
:58:28. > :58:36.about 1.5 metres in front of me I swerved to avoid it,
:58:37. > :58:38.but unfortunately I swerved into the line of fire of sole
:58:39. > :58:41.rubber bullets are being fired. And finally, he was chairman of Tyne
:58:42. > :58:43.Tees Television and Northumbrian Water, where he over saw thd
:58:44. > :58:46.building of the Kielder Resdrvoir. Sir Ralph Carr`Ellison who died
:58:47. > :58:48.this week aged 88, chaired Berwick Conservatives and was knighted for
:58:49. > :58:58.his services for the Tory p`rty And one last bit of news
:58:59. > :59:00.from the Lib Dems. They've selected
:59:01. > :59:02.the man they think can hold onto He's Josh Mason, deputy grotp leader
:59:03. > :59:06.on Redcar and Cleveland Council The party's current MP Ian
:59:07. > :59:09.Swales is standing down.Now The party's current MP Ian
:59:10. > :59:11.Swales is standing down. Now ` as you know ` we like to go to
:59:12. > :59:16.the very top to try and get answers Issues like the need to dual the
:59:17. > :59:21.length of the A1 which all parties agree is a priority ` but none
:59:22. > :59:24.so far have got round to dohng it. So when my colleague Mark Ddnten
:59:25. > :59:27.spoke to Ed Miliband this wdek, he asked the Labour leader
:59:28. > :59:29.for a commitment. I don't know if you drive up it the
:59:30. > :59:33.A1 north of Newcastle, is hopeless, it is slow, it is a single
:59:34. > :59:36.carriageway, will you dual ht? You need to also understand, we need
:59:37. > :59:42.to get the deficit down. Cynicism about politics is too
:59:43. > :59:47.great to make false promises. I do want to see that happen, I
:59:48. > :59:50.do understand the concerns `bout it. It is obviously something wd are
:59:51. > :59:53.looking at in our spending review. So what about UKIP leader
:59:54. > :59:55.Nigel Farage? I spoke to him ahead of
:59:56. > :59:57.his party's conference this week. Surely he'd commit himself ` after
:59:58. > :00:01.all the party's new North E`st Euro MP Jonathan Arnott said it would be
:00:02. > :00:07.worth the ?600 million bill. So was that, I asked,
:00:08. > :00:09.a UKIP commitment? No, it's not UKIP commitment,
:00:10. > :00:12.it's a UKIP opinion from a TKIP MEP And what he will need to do is
:00:13. > :00:17.convince Patrick O'Flynn, who's in charge of UKIP's economic policy,
:00:18. > :00:20.that that is the right thing to do. MPs and MEPs lobby and try
:00:21. > :00:24.and get it changed. I'm off to the Conservative
:00:25. > :00:29.conference ` wish me luck. Plenty on Look North
:00:30. > :00:31.and BBC local radio next wedk about that ` or of course you can
:00:32. > :00:35.follow me on my blog or on Twitter. And we'll be here ` same tile,
:00:36. > :00:38.same place ` next Sunday. For now it's back to Andrew
:00:39. > :00:40.for the rest of the show. My thanks to you both. Andrew, back
:00:41. > :01:01.to you. Here we are back in Birmingham with
:01:02. > :01:05.the Conservatives. The Tories thought all they had to do was come
:01:06. > :01:12.here, have a rally, a jamboree, and off they go to the races, or in
:01:13. > :01:17.their case the general election Two races later it hasn't quite worked
:01:18. > :01:23.out like that. Let's look at the state of this conference as it gets
:01:24. > :01:29.under way. On our panel we are joined by David Davis. You wrote an
:01:30. > :01:34.article in the Mail on Sunday this morning which was an Exocet at the
:01:35. > :01:41.heart of David Cameron's modernising strategy. It was designed to act as
:01:42. > :01:46.a lever. It was designed to cause trouble. No, we are in the running
:01:47. > :01:51.for the next general election. One of the characteristics of having a
:01:52. > :01:55.five year fixed term Parliaments is that the last year is about
:01:56. > :02:02.campaigning. It is important we beat Miliband, he would be a disastrous
:02:03. > :02:08.Prime Minister. You think the whole modernising strategy was a wrong
:02:09. > :02:25.turn, that is what the article said. Yes. Has that opened the door to
:02:26. > :02:34.UKIP? It has left a lot of people disillusioned with politics. What do
:02:35. > :02:53.you do to get it right? Who was listening to you?
:02:54. > :03:11.Frankly we need to take a more robust series of policies. How many
:03:12. > :03:20.more UKIP defections will there be? I do not think there will be any
:03:21. > :03:24.more. I would be very surprised I know Nigel Farage has a brilliant
:03:25. > :03:29.sense of timing, but I do not think he has got the resources to do that,
:03:30. > :03:34.namely, another Tory MP. So it could be another Labour one, maybe? I
:03:35. > :03:42.think an awful lot will hinge on what happens in Rochester. Because
:03:43. > :03:43.that is not a slam dunk. Clack and unfortunately looks like it will be
:03:44. > :05:35.a walkover for them. unfortunately looks like it will be
:05:36. > :05:38.for that. Despite some of the derision of Mr Miliband, the Tories
:05:39. > :05:42.are flat-lining in the sun decks, they have been there almost since
:05:43. > :05:48.the disastrous budget, the omnishambles, of 2012, Labour is
:05:49. > :05:53.still several points ahead, nothing seems to change? And David Cameron
:05:54. > :05:57.is now the leader in trouble. It is almost as if a week is a long time
:05:58. > :06:05.in politics. I thought the Labour and friends was Saab --
:06:06. > :06:10.sub-suboptimal. It was so parochial. You could've watched the top
:06:11. > :06:15.speeches without knowing that the borders of Ukraine, and Iraq and
:06:16. > :06:19.Syria were in question. I hope, because of Friday's discussion in
:06:20. > :06:23.Parliament, that this conference will raise its sights a bit, and we
:06:24. > :06:28.will have something in Cameron's speech, possibly that of George
:06:29. > :06:32.Osborne as well, which is a bit more global. People hoped UKIP had gone
:06:33. > :06:39.away during the summer, people at this conference, I mean, but it is
:06:40. > :06:44.back with a bang. They are still up at 15% in the polls, the Tories
:06:45. > :06:49.languishing on 32 - what is going to change? UKIP won 3% of the last
:06:50. > :06:56.election, I always thought they would get about 6%. If, by the turn
:06:57. > :07:01.of the year, they are still in double digits, I think at that point
:07:02. > :07:06.you can begin to wake of his party's chances of winning. I have
:07:07. > :07:11.had three people say to me so far, come election day, it will be fine,
:07:12. > :07:14.people will sober up and so on. It will be all right on the night is
:07:15. > :07:22.not a very good strategy, frankly. When they get past 5%, I start to
:07:23. > :07:26.bite into our 3-way marginal seats, with liberals, Labour and Tories,
:07:27. > :07:31.and we have got about 60 of those in the Midlands and the north, so it
:07:32. > :07:35.really is quite serious. And if I may steal one of David's lines, when
:07:36. > :07:40.you were interviewing Mark Reckless this morning, and was not talking
:07:41. > :07:44.about the EU referendum, he was talking about how he felt he had
:07:45. > :07:48.broken his pledges to the electorate because the Conservatives he said
:07:49. > :07:50.had failed on immigration and on the deficit, and those sort of
:07:51. > :07:54.bread-and-butter issues could be really potent on the doorstep, which
:07:55. > :07:58.means the Tories have got to run the kind of campaign they ran in Newark,
:07:59. > :08:02.which is a real centre ground, Reddan but a campaign, in which they
:08:03. > :08:07.would hope to get Liberal Democrat and Labour voters out to vote
:08:08. > :08:12.tactically against UKIP. I think today we have seen Cameron been
:08:13. > :08:16.pushed to the right. He has had to say, yes, I would leave Europe,
:08:17. > :08:21.which he has never said before. It is a huge stepping stone, a big
:08:22. > :08:27.difference. It takes the Tory party somewhere else. May be get them a
:08:28. > :08:33.lot of votes. But it has not so far. But I think it loses a lot of
:08:34. > :08:37.people. The industry organisations, for example. The prospect of going
:08:38. > :08:44.out of Europe, but is quite a fight for them. Is it not the lesson that
:08:45. > :08:53.you can out UKIP UKIP? Well, you do not need to, really. I agree, last
:08:54. > :09:03.week was sub-sub-suboptimal. Hold on, that is enough subs! I would not
:09:04. > :09:08.be crowing too much! But what I was going to say, he left out something
:09:09. > :09:13.incredibly important, the deficit. But how many people outside the M25
:09:14. > :09:18.are thinking about the deficit? One problem we face with Miliband is, he
:09:19. > :09:23.is good at politics and bad at economics, in a way. He comes up
:09:24. > :09:26.with bonkers policies which people love, price-fixing, things like
:09:27. > :09:31.that. Our problem will be about relevance on the doorstep. I do not
:09:32. > :09:36.think at the end of the day it will be about Europe. But was there not a
:09:37. > :09:39.moment of danger for you at the conference, that one area where
:09:40. > :09:43.Miliband is potentially vulnerable is not having credible team with
:09:44. > :09:46.business. Who turned up at the Labour conference, the head of
:09:47. > :09:52.Airbus, saying, we have got to stay in the European Union? The danger is
:09:53. > :10:00.that Europe allows the Labour Party to gain credibility with business.
:10:01. > :10:03.There is some truth in that. But we are in effectively the home
:10:04. > :10:08.straight, the last six months, and people will be fussing about prices
:10:09. > :10:12.and jobs. Very parochial. They will not be saying, what does the CBI
:10:13. > :10:17.think about this? It is, what is happening to me, in my town, in my
:10:18. > :10:26.factory, in my office. That is where the fight will be. Is it not the
:10:27. > :10:31.truth that if UKIP stays anywhere near around this level of support,
:10:32. > :10:35.it is impossible for the Tories to win an overall majority? I would
:10:36. > :10:38.say, if it is this level of support, it is impossible for the Tories to
:10:39. > :10:43.finish as the biggest party, even in a hung Parliament. The Tories keep
:10:44. > :10:47.trying to win back UKIP voters with cold logic - witches it makes Ed
:10:48. > :10:53.Miliband becoming prime minister more likely. UKIP is basically a
:10:54. > :10:57.vessel phenomenon, coming from the gut, and David Cameron has never
:10:58. > :11:00.found the emotional pitch in his rhetoric to meet that. I wonder
:11:01. > :11:12.whether we will see that moron Wednesday. It is just not him. I
:11:13. > :11:17.hope we do. -- more on Wednesday. I hope you're right that we do
:11:18. > :11:22.actually engage on emotion. So far with UKIP, our policy has been to
:11:23. > :11:26.insult them. It does not work. I know that from my constituency. We
:11:27. > :11:30.have to say to them, there is a wider Tory family, we understand you
:11:31. > :11:35.are patria, we understand you are worried about your family, and we do
:11:36. > :11:38.the same. What does it tell us about the state of the Tories, seven
:11:39. > :11:42.months from the election, the economy is going well, they are not
:11:43. > :11:47.that far behind Labour, and yet there is all sorts of leadership
:11:48. > :11:50.speculation? It is extraordinary. They are doing well, they are in
:11:51. > :12:02.with a shout. It depends. UKIP has to be kept below 9% of. -- below
:12:03. > :12:06.9%. I think David Cameron is one of the few who speaks human, actually
:12:07. > :12:10.talks quite well to people and does not look like a swivel-eyed loons.
:12:11. > :12:15.Whereas a lot of people behind him do. You look at Duncan Smith and
:12:16. > :12:20.Eric Pickles, they are all kind of driven, ideological men, with very
:12:21. > :12:28.right-wing policies. And nice people! Don't hold back! He is not
:12:29. > :12:33.the Addams family, he is basically quite human. I think a lot of people
:12:34. > :12:37.do not realise how ideological he is himself and how well he has led his
:12:38. > :12:41.party in the direction they all want to go. You go on about him being
:12:42. > :12:46.this metropolitan moderniser, I do not think that is what he is,
:12:47. > :12:51.really. It may not be visible from the guardian offices in the
:12:52. > :12:57.metropolis! Everybody where you are, Polly, is a metropolitan moderniser.
:12:58. > :13:00.And where you are, too. That is the nature of living in London. The
:13:01. > :13:04.trouble is, when these people get into Westminster, they are part of
:13:05. > :13:09.Westminster, too. If you could only win by being an outsider, the moment
:13:10. > :13:12.you get in, you are done for. All teeing up nicely for Boris Johnson
:13:13. > :13:22.to be the next leader? I do not think so! The point of my Exocet, or
:13:23. > :13:26.lever, this morning, is that I think this is winnable. If we are good
:13:27. > :13:31.Tories for the next six months, we can do this. It is by denying ground
:13:32. > :13:37.to UKIP, not giving in to them, not buckling. Denying ground. Thank you
:13:38. > :13:41.to our panel. They did all right today, but the normal. That is your
:13:42. > :13:46.lot for today. I am back tomorrow. We will have live coverage of George
:13:47. > :13:50.Osborne's speech to the conference. I am back next week in Glasgow for
:13:51. > :13:55.The Sunday Politics at the Labour conference. How could you miss
:13:56. > :14:24.that? Remember, if it is Sunday it is The Sunday Politics. Bye-bye
:14:25. > :14:39.of statutory press regulation in sponge cake may be a bridge too far.
:14:40. > :14:43.I think I've overdone it with the pistachios
:14:44. > :14:45.and somehow, the custard's split, but it's too late!
:14:46. > :14:57.of statutory press regulation in sponge cake may be a bridge too far.