26/02/2017

:00:43. > :00:48.It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:49. > :00:48.Theresa May still has plenty on her plate,

:00:49. > :00:51.not least a battle over Brexit in the Lords.

:00:52. > :00:52.But after Thursday's by-election win in Copeland,

:00:53. > :00:54.the Prime Minister looks stronger than ever.

:00:55. > :00:57.Jeremy Corbyn's Labour saw off Ukip in this week's other by-election,

:00:58. > :00:59.but losing to the Tories in a heartland seat leaves the party

:01:00. > :01:09.The leader of Scottish Labour joins me live.

:01:10. > :01:14.You look at what's happening last night in Sweden. Sweden!

:01:15. > :01:17.And Donald Trump may have been mocked for talking about the impact

:01:18. > :01:20.of migration on Sweden, but after riots in Stockholm this

:01:21. > :01:23.And here, full reaction from Cumbria to the Conservative by-election win.

:01:24. > :01:25.What does it mean for the rest of the North?

:01:26. > :01:27.And are our parish councils value for money?

:01:28. > :01:33.In London, will the rise in council tax in all but four local

:01:34. > :01:39.authorities be enough to alleviate the crisis in social care?

:01:40. > :01:42.And joining me for all of that, three journalists who I'm pleased

:01:43. > :01:50.to say have so far not been banned from the White House.

:01:51. > :01:54.I've tried banning them from this show repeatedly,

:01:55. > :01:57.but somehow they just keep getting past BBC security - it's Sam Coates,

:01:58. > :02:08.We have had two crucial by-elections, the results last

:02:09. > :02:12.Thursday night. It's now Sunday morning, where do they believe

:02:13. > :02:16.British politics? I think it leaves British politics looking as if it

:02:17. > :02:21.may go ahead without Ukip is a strong and robust force. It is

:02:22. > :02:26.difficult to see from where we are now how Ukip rebuilds into a

:02:27. > :02:31.credible vote winning operation. I think it looks unprofessional, the

:02:32. > :02:35.campaign they fought in Stoke was clearly winnable because the margin

:02:36. > :02:39.with which Labour held onto that seat was not an impressive one but

:02:40. > :02:43.they put forward arguably the wrong candidate, it was messy and it's

:02:44. > :02:47.hard to see where they go from here, particularly with the money problems

:02:48. > :02:53.they have and even Nigel Farage saying he's fed up of the party. If

:02:54. > :03:00.Isabel is right, if Ukip is no longer a major factor, you look at

:03:01. > :03:05.the state of Labour and the Lib Dems coming from a long way behind

:03:06. > :03:09.despite their local government by-election successes, Tories never

:03:10. > :03:13.more dominant. I think Theresa May is in a fascinating situation. She's

:03:14. > :03:19.the most powerful Prime Minister of modern times for now because she

:03:20. > :03:24.faces no confident, formidable opposition. Unlike Margaret Thatcher

:03:25. > :03:28.who in the 1980s, although she won landslides in the end, often looked

:03:29. > :03:34.like she was in trouble. She was inferred quite often in the build-up

:03:35. > :03:41.to the election. David Owen, Roy Jenkins, Shirley Williams. And quite

:03:42. > :03:46.often she was worried. At the moment Theresa May faces no formidable UK

:03:47. > :03:50.opposition. However, she is both strong and fragile because her

:03:51. > :03:54.agenda is Brexit, which I still think many have not got to grips

:03:55. > :04:00.with in terms of how complex and training and difficult it will be

:04:01. > :04:05.for her. Thatcher faced no equivalent to Brexit so she is both

:04:06. > :04:09.strong, formidably strong because of the wider UK political context, and

:04:10. > :04:14.very fragile. It is just when you think you have never been more

:04:15. > :04:19.dominant you are actually at the most dangerous, what can possibly go

:04:20. > :04:22.wrong? I think that the money of her MPs they haven't begun to think

:04:23. > :04:27.through the practicalities of Brexit and she does have a working majority

:04:28. > :04:30.of about 17 in the House of Commons so at any point she could be put

:04:31. > :04:34.under pressure from really opposition these days is done by the

:04:35. > :04:41.two wins inside the Conservative Party, either the 15 Europhiles or

:04:42. > :04:44.the bigger group of about 60 Brexiteers who have continued to

:04:45. > :04:49.operate as a united and disciplined force within the Conservative Party

:04:50. > :04:52.to get their agenda on the table. Either of those wings could be

:04:53. > :04:56.disappointed at any point in the next three and a half years and that

:04:57. > :05:02.would put her under pressure. I wouldn't completely rule out Ukip

:05:03. > :05:07.coming back. The reason Ukip lost in Stoke I think it's because at the

:05:08. > :05:13.moment Theresa May is delivering pretty much everything Ukip figures

:05:14. > :05:16.might want to see. We might find the phrase Brexit means Brexit quite

:05:17. > :05:19.anodyne but I think she is convincing people she will press

:05:20. > :05:25.ahead with their agenda and deliver the leave vote that people buy a

:05:26. > :05:29.slim majority voted for. Should that change, should there be talk of

:05:30. > :05:33.transition periods, shut the migration settlement not make people

:05:34. > :05:37.happy, then I think Ukip risks charging back up the centre ground

:05:38. > :05:42.and causing more problems in future. That could be a two year gap in

:05:43. > :05:46.which Ukip would have to survive. As I said, Ukip is on our agenda for

:05:47. > :05:47.today. Thursday was a big night

:05:48. > :05:49.for political obsessives like us, with not one but two

:05:50. > :05:53.significant by-elections, Ellie braved the wind and rain

:05:54. > :06:01.to bring you this report. The clouds had gathered,

:06:02. > :06:06.the winds blew at gale force. Was a change in the air, or just

:06:07. > :06:10.a weather system called Doris? Voters in Stoke-on-Trent

:06:11. > :06:14.were about to find out. It's here, a sports hall

:06:15. > :06:17.on a Thursday night that the country's media reckon

:06:18. > :06:23.is the true eye of the storm. Would Labour suffer a lightning

:06:24. > :06:26.strike to its very heart, or would the Ukip threat proved

:06:27. > :06:28.to be a damp squib? Everybody seems to think the result

:06:29. > :06:31.in Stoke-on-Trent would be close, just as they did 150-odd miles away

:06:32. > :06:35.in Copeland, where the Tories are counting on stealing another

:06:36. > :06:39.Labour heartland seat. Areas of high pressure in both

:06:40. > :06:47.places, and some strange sights. We knew this wasn't a normal

:06:48. > :06:50.by-election, and to prove it there is the rapper,

:06:51. > :06:52.Professor Green. Chart-toppers aside,

:06:53. > :06:55.winner of Stoke-on-Trent hit parade was announced first,

:06:56. > :06:57.where everyone was so excited the candidates didn't even make it

:06:58. > :07:01.onto the stage for the result. And I do hereby declare

:07:02. > :07:04.that the said Gareth Snell Nigel Farage has said that victory

:07:05. > :07:12.here in Stoke-on-Trent But Ukip's newish leader

:07:13. > :07:19.played down the defeat, insisting his party's

:07:20. > :07:22.time would come. Are you going to stand again

:07:23. > :07:28.as an MP or has this No doubt I will stand again,

:07:29. > :07:31.don't worry about that. The politics of hope beat

:07:32. > :07:40.the politics of fear. I think Ukip are the ones this

:07:41. > :07:43.weekend who have got But a few minutes later,

:07:44. > :07:49.it turned out Labour had Harrison, Trudy Lynn,

:07:50. > :07:53.the Conservative Party That was more than 2,000

:07:54. > :08:04.votes ahead of Labour. What has happened here tonight

:08:05. > :08:08.is a truly historic event. Labour were disappointed,

:08:09. > :08:10.but determined to be optimistic At a point when we're 15 to 18

:08:11. > :08:22.points behind in the polls... The Conservatives within 2000 votes

:08:23. > :08:26.I think is an incredible The morning after the night

:08:27. > :08:30.before, the losing parties were licking their wounds

:08:31. > :08:34.and their lips over breakfast. For years and years,

:08:35. > :08:37.Ukip was Nigel Farage, That has now changed,

:08:38. > :08:44.that era has gone. It's a new era, it is

:08:45. > :08:47.a second age for us. So that needs to be

:08:48. > :08:52.more fully embedded, it needs to be more defined,

:08:53. > :08:54.you know, and that will We have to continue to improve

:08:55. > :09:03.in seats where we have stood. As we have done here,

:09:04. > :09:06.we've improved on our 2015 result, that's what important,

:09:07. > :09:08.is that we are taking steps Can I be the first to come

:09:09. > :09:13.here today to congratulate you on being elected the new MP

:09:14. > :09:16.for Stoke on Trent Central. Jeremy Corbyn has just arrived

:09:17. > :09:19.in Stoke to welcome his newest MP. Not sure he's going to

:09:20. > :09:24.Copeland later though. Earlier in the day, the Labour

:09:25. > :09:28.leader had made clear he'd considered and discounted some

:09:29. > :09:30.theories about the party's Since you found out that you'd lost

:09:31. > :09:36.a seat to a governing party for the first time

:09:37. > :09:40.since the Falklands War, have you at any point this morning

:09:41. > :09:43.looked in the mirror and asked yourself this question -

:09:44. > :09:47.could the problem actually be me? In the end it was the Conservatives

:09:48. > :09:55.who came out on top. No governing party has made

:09:56. > :09:57.a gain at a by-election With the self-styled people's army

:09:58. > :10:03.of Ukip halted in Stoke, and Labour's wash-out

:10:04. > :10:08.here in Copeland... There's little chance of rain

:10:09. > :10:19.on Theresa May's parade. In the wake of that loss in

:10:20. > :10:22.Copeland, the Scottish Labour Party has been meeting for its spring

:10:23. > :10:24.conference in the Yesterday, deputy leader Tom Watson

:10:25. > :10:29.warned delegates that unless Labour took the by-election defeat

:10:30. > :10:31.seriously, the party's devastation in Scotland could be repeated

:10:32. > :10:35.south of the border. Well, I'm joined now

:10:36. > :10:50.by the leader of Scottish Labour, Even after your party had lost

:10:51. > :10:54.Copeland to the Tories and with Labour now trailing 16 points in the

:10:55. > :10:59.UK polls, you claim to have every faith that Jeremy Corbyn would

:11:00. > :11:06.absolutely win the general election. What evidence can you bring to

:11:07. > :11:09.support that? There is no doubt the result in Copeland was disappointing

:11:10. > :11:13.for the Labour Party and I think it's a collective feeling for

:11:14. > :11:16.everyone within the Labour Party and I want to do what I can to turn

:11:17. > :11:19.around the fortunes of our party. That's what I've committed to do

:11:20. > :11:26.while I have been the Scottish Labour leader. This two years ago we

:11:27. > :11:30.were down the mines so to speak in terms of losing the faith of working

:11:31. > :11:34.class communities across the country, but we listened very hard

:11:35. > :11:38.to the message voters are sending and responded to it. That's what I'm

:11:39. > :11:44.committed to doing in Scotland and that's what Jeremy Corbyn is

:11:45. > :11:49.committed to doing UK wide. The latest polls put Labour at 14% in

:11:50. > :11:55.Scotland, the Tories at ten points ahead of you in Scotland, even

:11:56. > :12:01.Theresa May is more popular than Jeremy Corbyn in Scotland. So I will

:12:02. > :12:05.try again - why are you so sure Jeremy Corbyn could win a general

:12:06. > :12:09.election? What I said when you are talking about Scotland is that I'm

:12:10. > :12:14.the leader of the Scottish Labour Party and I take responsibility for

:12:15. > :12:16.our policies here. Voters said very clearly after the Scottish

:12:17. > :12:20.Parliament election that they didn't have a clear enough sense of what we

:12:21. > :12:24.stood for so I have been advocating a very strong anti-austerity

:12:25. > :12:28.platform, coming up with ideas of how we can oppose the cuts and

:12:29. > :12:31.invest in our future. That is something Jeremy Corbyn also

:12:32. > :12:38.supports but I've also made it clear this weekend that we are opposed to

:12:39. > :12:41.a second independence referendum. I want to bring Scotland back together

:12:42. > :12:47.by focusing on the future and that's why I have been speaking about the

:12:48. > :12:50.federal solution for the UK. I know that Jeremy Corbyn shares that

:12:51. > :12:54.ambition because he is backing the plans for a people's Constitutional

:12:55. > :13:01.Convention. Yes, these are difficult times for the Scottish Labour Party

:13:02. > :13:07.and UK family, but I have a plan in place to turn things around. It will

:13:08. > :13:11.take time though. I'm still not sure why you are so sure the Labour party

:13:12. > :13:16.can win but let me come onto your plan. You want a UK wide

:13:17. > :13:22.Constitutional Convention and that lead to a new Federalist settlement.

:13:23. > :13:29.Is it the policy of the Labour Shadow Cabinet in Westminster to

:13:30. > :13:33.carve England into federal regions? What we support at a UK wide level

:13:34. > :13:36.is the people's constitutional convention. I have been careful to

:13:37. > :13:40.prescribe what I think is in the best interests of Scotland but not

:13:41. > :13:45.to dictate to other parts of the UK what is good for them, that's the

:13:46. > :13:50.point of the people's constitutional convention. You heard Tom Watson say

:13:51. > :13:53.there has to be a UK wide conversation about power, who has it

:13:54. > :13:57.and how it is exercised across England. England hasn't been part of

:13:58. > :14:03.this devolution story over the last 20 years, it is something that

:14:04. > :14:07.happened between Scotland and London or Wales and London. No wonder

:14:08. > :14:10.people in England feel disenfranchised from that. What

:14:11. > :14:16.evidence can you bring to show there is any appetite in England for an

:14:17. > :14:21.English federal solution to England, to carve England into federal

:14:22. > :14:24.regions? Have you spoken to John Prescott about this? He might tell

:14:25. > :14:30.you some of the difficulties. There's not even a debate about that

:14:31. > :14:34.here, Kezia Dugdale, it is fantasy. I speak to John Prescott regularly.

:14:35. > :14:38.What there is a debate about is the idea the world is changing so fast

:14:39. > :14:41.that globalisation is taking jobs away from communities in the

:14:42. > :14:46.north-east, that many working class communities feel left behind, that

:14:47. > :14:50.Westminster feels very far away and the politicians within it feel

:14:51. > :14:53.remote in part of the establishment. People are fed up with power being

:14:54. > :14:57.exercised somewhere else, that's where I think federalism comes in

:14:58. > :15:01.because it's about bringing power closer to people and in many ways

:15:02. > :15:09.it's forced on us because of Brexit. We know the United Kingdom is

:15:10. > :15:12.leaving the European Union so we have to talk about the repatriation

:15:13. > :15:15.of those powers from Brussels to Britain. I want many of those powers

:15:16. > :15:17.to go to the Scottish parliament but where should they go in the English

:15:18. > :15:21.context? It is not as things currently stand the policy of the

:15:22. > :15:22.English Labour Party to carve England into federal regions,

:15:23. > :15:32.correct? It is absolutely the policy of the

:15:33. > :15:36.UK Labour Party to support the people's Constitutional convention

:15:37. > :15:41.to examining these questions. I think it is really important. You're

:15:42. > :15:45.promising the Scottish people a federal solution, and you have not

:15:46. > :15:50.even squared your own party for a federal solution in England. That is

:15:51. > :15:53.not true. The UK Labour Party is united on this. I am going to

:15:54. > :15:58.Cardiff next month to meet with Carwyn Jones and various leaders.

:15:59. > :16:02.United on a federal solution? You know as well as I know it is not

:16:03. > :16:07.united on a federal solution. We will have a conversation about power

:16:08. > :16:30.in this country. It is not united on that

:16:31. > :16:34.issue? This is the direction of travel. It is what you heard

:16:35. > :16:36.yesterday from Sadiq Khan, from Tom Watson, when you hear from people

:16:37. > :16:39.like Nick Forbes who lead Newcastle City Council and Labour's Local

:16:40. > :16:41.Government Association. There is an appetite for talking about power.

:16:42. > :16:43.Talking is one thing. We need to have this conversation across the

:16:44. > :16:45.whole of the United Kingdom, to have a reformed United Kingdom. It is a

:16:46. > :16:48.conversation you're offering Scotland, not the policy. Let's come

:16:49. > :16:50.onto the labour made of London. He was in power for your conference. He

:16:51. > :16:53.wrote in the record yesterday, there is no difference between Scottish

:16:54. > :16:56.nationalism and racism. Would you like this opportunity to distance

:16:57. > :17:01.yourself from that absurd claim? I think that Sadiq Khan was very clear

:17:02. > :17:05.yesterday that he was not accusing the SNP of racism. What he was

:17:06. > :17:10.saying clearly is that nationalism by its very nature divides people

:17:11. > :17:14.and communities. That is what I said in my speech yesterday. I am fed up

:17:15. > :17:19.living in a divided and fractured country and society. Our politics is

:17:20. > :17:24.forcing is constantly to pick sides, whether you're a no, leave a remain,

:17:25. > :17:28.it brings out the worst in our politicians and politics. All the

:17:29. > :17:33.consensus we find in the grey areas is lost. That is why am standing

:17:34. > :17:47.under a banner that together we are stronger. We have to come up with

:17:48. > :17:51.ideas and focus on the future. That is why I agree with Sadiq Khan. He

:17:52. > :17:54.said quite clearly in the Daily Record yesterday, and that the last

:17:55. > :17:56.minute he adapted his speech to your conference yesterday, to try and

:17:57. > :17:59.reduce the impact, that there was no difference between Scottish

:18:00. > :18:02.nationalism and racism. Your colleague, and Sarwar, said that

:18:03. > :18:06.even after he had tried to introduce the caveats, all forms of

:18:07. > :18:14.nationalism rely on creating eyes and them. Let's call it for what it

:18:15. > :18:18.is. So you are implying that the Scottish Nationalists are racist.

:18:19. > :18:22.Would you care to distance yourself from that absurd claim? I utterly

:18:23. > :18:28.refute that that is what Sadiq Khan said. I would never suggest that the

:18:29. > :18:34.SNP are an inherently racist party. That does is a disservice. He did

:18:35. > :18:38.not see it. What he did say, however, is that nationalism is

:18:39. > :18:42.divisive. You know that better than anyone. I see your Twitter account.

:18:43. > :18:48.Regularly your attack for the job you do as a journalist. Politics in

:18:49. > :18:53.Scotland is divided on. I do not want to revisit that independence

:18:54. > :18:56.question again for that reason. As leader of the Labour Party, I want

:18:57. > :19:02.to bring our country back together, appeal to people who voted yes and

:19:03. > :19:05.no. That banner, together we are stronger, that is where the answers

:19:06. > :19:10.lie in defaulters can be found. If in response to the Mayor of London,

:19:11. > :19:15.your colleague says, let's call it out for what it is, what is he

:19:16. > :19:23.referring to if he is not implying that national symbol is racist? --

:19:24. > :19:27.and that nationalism is racist? He is saying that it leads to divisive

:19:28. > :19:31.politics. The Labour Party has always advocated that together we

:19:32. > :19:35.are stronger. Saying something is divisive is very different from

:19:36. > :19:39.saying something is racist. That is what the Mayor of London said. That

:19:40. > :19:44.is what your colleague was referring to. He did not. You would really

:19:45. > :19:50.struggle to quote that from the Mayor of London. He talked about

:19:51. > :19:56.being divided by race. What does that mean? I think he was very clear

:19:57. > :20:00.that he was talking about divided politics. There is an appetite the

:20:01. > :20:04.length and breadth of the country to end that divisive politics. That is

:20:05. > :20:08.what I stand for, focusing on the future, bringing people back

:20:09. > :20:12.together, concentrating on what the economy might look like in 20 years'

:20:13. > :20:14.time in coming up with ideas to tackle it today. Thank you for

:20:15. > :20:15.joining us. Thursday's win for Labour

:20:16. > :20:17.in Stoke-on-Trent Central gave some relief to Jeremy Corbyn,

:20:18. > :20:20.but for Ukip leader and defeated Stoke candidate Paul Nuttall

:20:21. > :20:22.there were no consolation prizes. I'm joined now by Mr Nuttall's

:20:23. > :20:33.principal political Welcome to the programme. Good

:20:34. > :20:36.morning. How long will Paul Nuttall survivors Ukip leader, days, weeks,

:20:37. > :20:42.months? You are in danger of not seeing the wood for the trees. Ukip

:20:43. > :20:47.was formed in 1993 with the express purpose, much mocked, of getting

:20:48. > :20:50.Britain out of the European Union. Under the brilliant leadership of

:20:51. > :20:54.Nigel Farage, we were crucial in forcing a vacuous Prime Minister to

:20:55. > :21:00.make a referendum promise he did not want to give. With our friends in

:21:01. > :21:06.Fort leave and other organisations. Mac we know that. Get to the answer.

:21:07. > :21:11.We helped to win that referendum. The iteration of Ukip at the moment

:21:12. > :21:16.that we're in, the primary purpose, we are the guard dog of Brexit.

:21:17. > :21:21.Viewed through that prism, the Stoke by-election was a brilliant success.

:21:22. > :21:26.A brilliant success? We had the Tory candidate that had pumped out

:21:27. > :21:30.publicity for Remain, for Cameron Bradley, preaching the gospel of

:21:31. > :21:35.Brexit. We had a Labour candidate and we know what he really felt

:21:36. > :21:37.about Brexit, preaching the Gospel according to Brexit. You lost. Well

:21:38. > :21:54.the by-election was going on, we had the Labour Party in the House of

:21:55. > :21:56.Commons pass the idea of trickling Article 50 by a landslide. Are

:21:57. > :21:59.passionate thing, the thing that 35,000 Ukip members care about the

:22:00. > :22:01.most, it is an extraordinary achievement. I am very proud. What

:22:02. > :22:04.would you have described as victory as? If we could have got Paul

:22:05. > :22:07.Nuttall into the House of Commons, that would have been a fantastic

:22:08. > :22:13.cherry on the top. Losing was an extraordinary achievement? Many Ukip

:22:14. > :22:19.supporters the Stoke was winnable, but Paul Nuttall's campaign was

:22:20. > :22:27.marred by controversy, Tory voters refuse to vote tactically for Ukip

:22:28. > :22:31.to beat Labour, his campaign, Mr Nuttall is to blame for not winning

:22:32. > :22:35.what was a winnable seat? I do not see that at all. This is

:22:36. > :22:40.counterintuitive, but Jeremy Corbyn did do one thing that made it more

:22:41. > :22:45.difficult for us to win. Fantasy. That was to take Labour into a

:22:46. > :22:50.Brexit position formerly. Just over 50 Labour MPs had voted against

:22:51. > :22:54.triggering Article 50. In political terms, we have intimidated the

:22:55. > :22:56.Labour Party into backing Brexit. How much good is it doing you? It

:22:57. > :23:13.comes to the heart of the problem your party faces.

:23:14. > :23:15.You're struggling to win Tory Eurosceptic voters. For the moment,

:23:16. > :23:18.they seem happy with Theresa May. Stoke shows you're not winning

:23:19. > :23:20.Labour Brexit voters either. If you cannot get the solution Tolisso

:23:21. > :23:22.labour, where does your Broad come from? In terms of the by-election,

:23:23. > :23:25.it came very early for Paul. I'm talking about the future. We have a

:23:26. > :23:30.future agenda, and ideological argument with Jeremy Corbyn's Labour

:23:31. > :23:34.Party, which is wedded to the notion of global citizenship and does not

:23:35. > :23:38.recognise the nation state. We know he spent Christmas sitting around

:23:39. > :23:42.campfires with Mexican Marxist dreaming of global government. We

:23:43. > :23:45.believe in the nation state. We believe that the patriotic working

:23:46. > :23:52.class vote will be receptive to that. Your Broad went down by 9% in

:23:53. > :23:57.Cortland. In Copeland we were squeezed. In Stoke, we were unable

:23:58. > :24:03.to squeeze the Tories, who are on a high. Our agenda is that social

:24:04. > :24:06.solidarity is important but we arrange it in this country by nation

:24:07. > :24:11.and community. We want an immigration system that is not only

:24:12. > :24:16.reducing... We know what you want. I do not think people do. You had a

:24:17. > :24:20.whole by-election to tell people and they did not vote for you and. When

:24:21. > :24:25.Nigel Farage said it was fundamental that you were winner in Stoke, he

:24:26. > :24:33.was wrong? Nigel chooses his own words. I would not rewrite them. It

:24:34. > :24:36.would be a massive advantage to Ukip to have a leader in the House of

:24:37. > :24:40.Commons in time to reply to the budget, Prime Minister's questions

:24:41. > :24:43.and all of that. But we have taken the strategic view that we will

:24:44. > :24:47.fight the Labour Party for the working class vote. It is also true

:24:48. > :24:51.that the Conservatives will make a pitch for the working class vote

:24:52. > :24:56.might as well. All three parties have certain advantages and

:24:57. > :25:00.disadvantages. As part of that page, Nigel Farage said that your leader,

:25:01. > :25:05.Paul Nuttall, should have taken a clear, by which I assume he meant

:25:06. > :25:10.tough, line on immigration. Do you agree? He took a tough line on

:25:11. > :25:15.immigration. He developed that idea at our party conference in the

:25:16. > :25:18.spring. Nigel Farage did not think so? Nigel Farage made his speech

:25:19. > :25:25.before Paul Nuttall made his speech. He said this in the aftermath of the

:25:26. > :25:31.result. Once we have freedom to control and Borders, Paul wants to

:25:32. > :25:34.set up an immigration system that includes an aptitude test, do you

:25:35. > :25:41.have skills that the British economy needs, but also, and attitudes test,

:25:42. > :25:46.do you subscribe to core British values such as gender equality and

:25:47. > :25:49.freedom of expression? We will be making these arguments. It is

:25:50. > :25:54.certainly true that Paul's campaign was thrown off course by,

:25:55. > :26:00.particularly something that we knew the Labour Party had been preparing

:26:01. > :26:02.to run, the smear on the untruths, the implications about Hillsborough.

:26:03. > :26:09.If you knew you should have anticipated it. Alan Banks, he helps

:26:10. > :26:13.to bankroll your party, he said that Mr Nuttall needs to toss out the

:26:14. > :26:16.Tory cabal in Europe, by which he means Douglas Carswell, Neil

:26:17. > :26:22.Hamilton. Should they be stripped of their membership? Of course not. As

:26:23. > :26:26.far as I knew, Alan Banks was a member of the Conservative Party

:26:27. > :26:30.formally. I do not know who this Tory cabal is supposed to be. He

:26:31. > :26:34.says that your party is more like a jumble sale than a political party.

:26:35. > :26:40.He says that the party should make him chairman or they will work. What

:26:41. > :26:43.do you see to that? He has made that statement several times over many

:26:44. > :26:48.months, including if you do not throw out your only MP. Douglas

:26:49. > :26:52.Carswell has managed to win twice under Ukip colours. Should Tibi

:26:53. > :26:59.chairman? I think we have an excellent young chairman at the

:27:00. > :27:04.moment. He is doing a good job. The idea that Leave.EU was as smooth

:27:05. > :27:07.running brilliant machine, that does not sit with the facts as I

:27:08. > :27:12.understand them. Suzanne Evans says it would be no great loss for Ukip

:27:13. > :27:17.if Mr Banks walked out, severed his ties and took his money elsewhere.

:27:18. > :27:20.Is she right. I am always happy people who want to give money and

:27:21. > :27:25.support your party want to stay in the party. The best donors donate

:27:26. > :27:30.and do not seek to dictate. If they are experts in certain fields,

:27:31. > :27:33.people should listen to their views but to have a daughter telling the

:27:34. > :27:38.party leader who should be party chairman, that is a nonstarter. You

:27:39. > :27:43.have described your existing party chairman is excellent. He said it

:27:44. > :27:48.could be 20 years before Ukip wins by-election. Is he being too

:27:49. > :27:52.optimistic? There is a general election coming up in the years'

:27:53. > :27:57.time. We will be aiming to win seats in that. Before that, we will be the

:27:58. > :28:02.guard dog for Brexit, to make sure this extraordinary achievement of a

:28:03. > :28:06.little party... You are guard dog without a kennel, you cannot get

:28:07. > :28:11.seat? We're keeping the big establishment parties to do the will

:28:12. > :28:14.of the people. If we achieve nothing else at all, that will be a

:28:15. > :28:16.magnificent achievement. Thank you very much.

:28:17. > :28:18.Sweden isn't somewhere we talk about often

:28:19. > :28:21.should because this week it was pulled into

:28:22. > :28:22.the global spotlight, thanks

:28:23. > :28:31.Last weekend, Mr Trump was mocked for referring to an incident that

:28:32. > :28:34.had occurred last night in Sweden as a result of the country's open

:28:35. > :28:38.Critics were quick to point out that no such incident had occurred

:28:39. > :28:41.and Mr Trump later clarified on Twitter and he was talking

:28:42. > :28:44.about a report he had watched on Fox News.

:28:45. > :28:46.But as if to prove he was onto something,

:28:47. > :28:49.next day a riot broke out in a Stockholm suburb

:28:50. > :28:51.with a large migrant population, following unrest in such areas

:28:52. > :29:01.So what has been Sweden's experience of migration?

:29:02. > :29:04.In 2015, a record 162,000 people claimed asylum there, the second

:29:05. > :29:11.That number dropped to 29,000 in 2016 after the country introduced

:29:12. > :29:12.border restrictions and stopped offering permanent

:29:13. > :29:20.Tensions have risen, along with claims of links to crime,

:29:21. > :29:23.although official statistics do not provide evidence of a refugee driven

:29:24. > :29:31.Nigel Farage defended Mr Trump, claiming this week that migrants

:29:32. > :29:34.have led to a dramatic rise in sexual offences.

:29:35. > :29:36.Although the country does have the highest reported

:29:37. > :29:39.rate of rape in Europe, Swedish authorities say recent rises

:29:40. > :29:44.were due to changes to how rape and sex crimes are recorded.

:29:45. > :29:46.Aside from the issue of crime, Sweden has struggled

:29:47. > :29:52.Levels of inequality between natives and migrants when it comes

:29:53. > :29:55.Unemployment rates are three times higher for foreign-born workers

:29:56. > :30:08.We're joined now by Laila Naraghi, she's a Swedish MP from the

:30:09. > :30:10.governing Social Democratic Party, and by the author and

:30:11. > :30:26.The Swedish political establishment was outraged by Mr Trump's remarks,

:30:27. > :30:30.pointing to a riot that hadn't taken place, then a few nights later

:30:31. > :30:35.serious riots did break out in a largely migrant suburb of Stockholm

:30:36. > :30:39.so he wasn't far out, was he? I think he was far out because he is

:30:40. > :30:45.misleading the public with how he uses these statistics. I think it is

:30:46. > :30:48.important to remember that the violence has decreased in Sweden for

:30:49. > :30:52.the past 20 years and research shows there is no evidence that indicate

:30:53. > :31:00.that immigration leads to crime and so I think it is far out. The social

:31:01. > :31:04.unrest in these different areas is not because of their ethical

:31:05. > :31:11.backgrounds of these people living there but more about social economic

:31:12. > :31:15.reasons. OK, no evidence migrants are responsible for any kind of

:31:16. > :31:22.crime? This story reminds me after what happened to the Charlie Hebdo

:31:23. > :31:27.attacks in Paris when also a Fox News commentator said something that

:31:28. > :31:31.was outlandish about Paris and the Mayor of Paris threatened to sue Fox

:31:32. > :31:36.News, saying you are making our city look bad. It's a bit like that

:31:37. > :31:41.because the truth on this lies between Donald Trump on the Swedish

:31:42. > :31:46.authorities on this. Sweden and Swedish government is very reluctant

:31:47. > :31:49.to admit any downsides of its own migration policy and particularly

:31:50. > :31:55.the migration it hard in 2015 but there are very obvious downsides

:31:56. > :32:01.because Sweden is not a country that needs a non-skilled labour force

:32:02. > :32:06.which doesn't speak Swedish. What was raised as the matter of

:32:07. > :32:11.evidence, what is the evidence? First of all if I can say so the

:32:12. > :32:14.rape statistics in Sweden that have been cited are familiar with the

:32:15. > :32:18.rape statistics across other countries that have seen similar

:32:19. > :32:23.forms of migration. Danish authorities and the Norwegian

:32:24. > :32:28.authorities have recorded a similar thing. It is not done by ethnicity

:32:29. > :32:34.so we don't know. And this is part of the problem. It is again a lot of

:32:35. > :32:39.lies and rumours going about. When it is about for example rape, it is

:32:40. > :32:44.difficult to compare the statistics because in Sweden for example many

:32:45. > :32:49.crimes that in other countries are labelled as bodily harm or assault

:32:50. > :32:54.are in Sweden labelled as rape. Also how it is counted because if a woman

:32:55. > :33:02.goes to the police and reports that her husband or boyfriend has raped

:33:03. > :33:08.her, and done it every night for one year, in Sweden that is counted as

:33:09. > :33:12.365 offences. Something is going wrong, I look at the recent news

:33:13. > :33:15.from Sweden. Six Afghan child refugees committed suicide in the

:33:16. > :33:22.last six months, unemployment among recent migrants now five times

:33:23. > :33:28.higher than among non-migrants. We have seen gang violence in Malmo

:33:29. > :33:32.where a British child was killed by a grenade, rioting in Stockholm.

:33:33. > :33:35.Police in Sweden say there are 53 areas of the country where it is now

:33:36. > :33:42.dangerous to patrol. Something has gone wrong. Let me get back to what

:33:43. > :33:47.I think is the core of this debate if I may and that is the right for

:33:48. > :33:51.people fleeing war and political persecution to seek asylum, that is

:33:52. > :33:56.a human right. In Sweden we don't think we can do everything, but we

:33:57. > :34:00.want to live up to our obligation, every country has an obligation to

:34:01. > :34:06.receive asylum seekers. But you have changed your policy on that because

:34:07. > :34:10.having taken 163,001 year alone, you have then closed your borders, I

:34:11. > :34:15.think very wisely, closed the border which means 10,000 people per day at

:34:16. > :34:20.one point were walking from Denmark in to Malmo, you rightly changed

:34:21. > :34:23.that so he realised whatever ones aspirations in terms of asylum, it

:34:24. > :34:30.sometimes meets reality and Sweden is meeting the reality of this.

:34:31. > :34:33.Let's respond to that. We are not naive, we know we cannot do

:34:34. > :34:37.everything but we want to try to do our share as we think other

:34:38. > :34:42.countries also need to do their share. But let me say that, if you

:34:43. > :34:45.look at what the World Economic Forum is saying about our country

:34:46. > :34:49.they show we are in the top of many rankings, the best country to live

:34:50. > :34:58.in, to age in, to have children in, to start into -- to start

:34:59. > :35:04.enterprise. Why have you not been so good at integrating migrants? The

:35:05. > :35:09.unemployment rate is five times higher among migrants than

:35:10. > :35:13.non-migrants and that's the highest ratio of any country in the EU and

:35:14. > :35:19.the OECD, why have you not been able to integrate the people you have

:35:20. > :35:23.brought in for humanitarian reasons? I'm sure there are things we can do

:35:24. > :35:27.much better of course but if you look for example at the immigration

:35:28. > :35:32.that came in the 90s from the Balkans, they are well integrated

:35:33. > :35:34.and contributing to our society. They are starting enterprises and

:35:35. > :35:42.working in different fields of society, and they help our country.

:35:43. > :35:49.Why have they not got jobs, the migrants that have come in? It takes

:35:50. > :35:54.time. In the 90s we managed it and I'm sure we can do it again. Can I

:35:55. > :35:57.put this into some context, it is clear Sweden has got problems as a

:35:58. > :36:02.result of the number of migrants that come in, whether it is as bad

:36:03. > :36:06.as Mr Trump and others make out is another matter, but perhaps I can

:36:07. > :36:10.put it into context. Malmo, which has been at the centre of many of

:36:11. > :36:17.these migrant problems, its homicide rate is three per hundred thousand.

:36:18. > :36:23.Chicago, 28 per 100,000. It may have problems but they are not huge. No,

:36:24. > :36:28.they are pretty huge and I think they will grow. The Balkan refugees

:36:29. > :36:32.into Sweden in the 90s did bring a lot of problems and Sweden did for

:36:33. > :36:36.the first time see serious ethnic gang rivalries. There was an upsurge

:36:37. > :36:42.in gang-related violence that has gone on since. The situation in

:36:43. > :36:46.Malmo in particular is exaggerated by some people, there's no doubt

:36:47. > :36:49.about that, I have been there many times and it is undoubtedly

:36:50. > :36:55.exaggerated by some, it is also vastly unpersuaded by the Swedish

:36:56. > :37:06.authorities. -- understated. In 2010, one in ten Jews in Malmo

:37:07. > :37:15.registered some form of attack on them. It got so bad that in 2010

:37:16. > :37:19.people offered to escort Jews... You have had a good say and I have got

:37:20. > :37:26.to be fair here, what do you say to that, Laila Naraghi? There are

:37:27. > :37:30.people trying to frame our country in a certain way to push their own

:37:31. > :37:36.agenda. I regret that President Trump is trying to slander our

:37:37. > :37:40.country. But what about the specific point on Malmo? If you speak to

:37:41. > :37:44.people in Malmo and also to different congregations, they say

:37:45. > :37:48.they are working together with the authorities to improve this. I say

:37:49. > :37:53.again, there are a lot of people trying to spread rumours and lies.

:37:54. > :37:58.Your situation is very like the situation we had in Britain when we

:37:59. > :38:03.have these situations in Rotherham and elsewhere. 1400 girls were raped

:38:04. > :38:07.in Rotherham before police even admitted it was going on. That

:38:08. > :38:11.happened in Britain in the last decade, a similar phenomenon. An

:38:12. > :38:15.upsurge in particularly sexual and other forms of violence and then

:38:16. > :38:20.total denial by an entire political class is now something that is

:38:21. > :38:23.happening in Sweden. I see it in Swedish authorities and the denial

:38:24. > :38:28.that comes up and the desire to laugh and dismiss Trump but he's not

:38:29. > :38:35.answer nothing and that's a painful thing for any society to want to

:38:36. > :38:42.admit to. There are number of Swedes who think the establishment is

:38:43. > :38:46.covering up the true statistics, that you don't break crime down by

:38:47. > :38:52.ethnic crimes, people are suspicious of the centre-left and centre-right

:38:53. > :38:55.parties now in Sweden. There is no denial and no cover-up. This is what

:38:56. > :38:59.I'm speaking about when I say people are trying to frame it in a certain

:39:00. > :39:03.way. The social unrest is not because of the ethnical background

:39:04. > :39:07.of the people living there but rather because of different

:39:08. > :39:13.socioeconomics conditions. There is no research that shows

:39:14. > :39:16.immigration... But you don't do the research into it. Swedish

:39:17. > :39:20.authorities deliberately ensure you cannot carry out such research and

:39:21. > :39:24.after the attacks in Cologne in 2015 it was the first time then that the

:39:25. > :39:28.Swedish authorities and press admitted that similar sexual

:39:29. > :39:34.molestation have been going on for years in Sweden. Is it right to

:39:35. > :39:39.think, given the problem is maybe not as bad as many people make out

:39:40. > :39:44.but clearly problems, given these problems, is the age of mass asylum

:39:45. > :39:49.seeking for Sweden over? You have cut the numbers by 80% coming in

:39:50. > :39:54.last year compared with 2015, is it over while you concentrate on

:39:55. > :39:58.getting right the people that you have there already? We want to do

:39:59. > :40:01.our share, we have done a lot and now we are concentrating of course

:40:02. > :40:15.on integration and making sure people get a job, and also

:40:16. > :40:18.on big welfare investments because it's important to remember that for

:40:19. > :40:20.eight years Sweden were governed by a government that prioritised big

:40:21. > :40:24.tax cuts instead of investment in welfare. It may just not work. I am

:40:25. > :40:25.grateful to you both, we have to leave it there.

:40:26. > :40:28.It's coming up to 11:40am, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:40:29. > :40:30.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now

:40:31. > :40:36.the Week Ahead, when we'll be asking if the Government is facing defeat

:40:37. > :40:46.Hello, and a warm welcome to your local part of the show.

:40:47. > :40:48.We'll be asking what that historic Conservative victory in Copeland

:40:49. > :40:51.tells us about the state of the main parties in Cumbria and

:40:52. > :40:59.My guests this week are the leader of Cumbria County

:41:00. > :41:01.Council's Conservative group, a man who campaigned in Copeland,

:41:02. > :41:04.Mr James Airey, Ukip's Euro MP for the North

:41:05. > :41:06.East, Jonathan Arnott, who spent a lot of time in Stoke,

:41:07. > :41:08.and in our Middlesbrough studio Stockton North MP Alex Cunningham.

:41:09. > :41:11.Also coming up, the cost is rocketing and some it is

:41:12. > :41:13.said of incomplete disarray - are our parish councils

:41:14. > :41:18.And Labour ended up making history but

:41:19. > :41:24.An eight point increase in the Conservative vote delivered

:41:25. > :41:27.to the Tories a seat they hadn't won since the 1930s.

:41:28. > :41:29.No surprise, then, that by Friday lunchtime the Prime

:41:30. > :41:31.Minister was in West Cumbria to celebrate the result with the

:41:32. > :41:40.This is an astounding victory for the Conservative Party but also for

:41:41. > :41:46.You know, Labour have held this seat since the 1930s.

:41:47. > :41:51.A party in Government hasn't won a by-election from the

:41:52. > :41:59.opposition and a seat held by the opposition for 35 years.

:42:00. > :42:01.Labour support dropped by 5% despite a fiercely fought campaign

:42:02. > :42:07.on Brexit and local NHS services, but supporters refused to blame

:42:08. > :42:16.-- the threats to local NHS services.

:42:17. > :42:19.It certainly isn't Jeremy Corbyn's fault.

:42:20. > :42:21.Jeremy Corbyn's been the labour of the Labour Party

:42:22. > :42:24.And Jeremy didn't, certainly, as far as I was

:42:25. > :42:26.concerned, he didn't crop up on the doorstep

:42:27. > :42:30.But the party wasn't the only loser from the Copeland contest.

:42:31. > :42:31.Ukip's suffered its worst by-election performance

:42:32. > :42:35.Well, a bit disappointing really, but I think there's probably a bit

:42:36. > :42:38.of tactical voting going on here because the media was reporting it

:42:39. > :42:40.was a two horse race so I think people have

:42:41. > :42:45.And people also think they've got Brexit so I think

:42:46. > :42:46.they've probably gone back to their original parties

:42:47. > :42:51.when they voted for Ukip to get the referendum, possibly.

:42:52. > :42:54.So this is how the political map of the county now looks

:42:55. > :42:56.after the loss of Copeland, with Labour MPs in

:42:57. > :42:58.Workington and Barrow and conservatives in Carlisle and

:42:59. > :43:03.West and Lonsdale also held of course by

:43:04. > :43:06.And as for those pro-Remain Liberal Democrats,

:43:07. > :43:08.therefore it actually went up in Copeland,

:43:09. > :43:10.as it has done in every by-election since Brexit.

:43:11. > :43:13.Let's assess the significance of all that now with my guests.

:43:14. > :43:15.Alex Cunningham, in our Middlesbrough studio, some

:43:16. > :43:18.people blaming Jeremy Corbyn for this result, some blaming Tony

:43:19. > :43:21.Blair, some blaming people like yourselves who resigned

:43:22. > :43:25.in the summer from the front bench, obviously you've come back now.

:43:26. > :43:28.What, in your view, is behind the loss of this seat?

:43:29. > :43:31.Well, I mean, it's very disappointing what happened there.

:43:32. > :43:34.I thought Gillian fought a fantastic campaign and did extremely well.

:43:35. > :43:37.However, I think the people of Copeland wanted to send the Labour

:43:38. > :43:44.Party a message and I just hope that we can take all that on board,

:43:45. > :43:46.get stuck in and make sure that we take

:43:47. > :43:48.our message of social justice on the NHS and

:43:49. > :43:50.everything else back to the

:43:51. > :43:53.people again and convince them that we are the party of the future.

:43:54. > :43:55.And I also hope that when the Prime Minister

:43:56. > :43:57.was there she actually confirmed to the people of West

:43:58. > :43:59.Cumberland that their health service is safe there,

:44:00. > :44:05.But you think they were sending a message.

:44:06. > :44:08.What message do you think they were sending to you?

:44:09. > :44:11.I think they were sending us a message that we've been a bit

:44:12. > :44:13.out of touch of late, that some of our

:44:14. > :44:17.policies may not be aligned to theirs.

:44:18. > :44:19.But also those issues around the support for the

:44:20. > :44:23.Jeremy made it clear, I made it clear on the doorstep as

:44:24. > :44:30.well, that we were very much omitted to that industry.

:44:31. > :44:35.Nobody is going to throw away thousands of well-paid

:44:36. > :44:39.jobs and I think it is important that we continue to try to get that

:44:40. > :44:41.message across, that we are pro-nuclear, we believe in an energy

:44:42. > :44:44.mix, and we believe in all the jobs that are there in career.

:44:45. > :44:48.And Jeremy Corbyn's part in this - was he an asset?

:44:49. > :44:51.Jeremy 's name was mentioned to me on the doorstep a few times.

:44:52. > :44:53.A few people were not happy with his leadership

:44:54. > :44:54.and that is something for

:44:55. > :44:57.him to reflect on and the rest of us as well.

:44:58. > :44:59.Well, we may again come back to that.

:45:00. > :45:01.Jonathan Arnott, there was a significant drop in the Ukip

:45:02. > :45:04.Slipping into fourth, on top of what happened in Stoke,

:45:05. > :45:08.A bad night for your party, wasn't it?

:45:09. > :45:11.Yeah, I mean, I think we probably, hand on heart, expected it would be

:45:12. > :45:14.difficult for us in Copeland simply because we've got a seat which is

:45:15. > :45:16.being fiercely fought by two political juggernauts, the Labour

:45:17. > :45:19.It's always going to be difficult for a

:45:20. > :45:22.party with Ukip's resources to avoid getting squeezed and afraid that's

:45:23. > :45:31.Obviously, not the MP for Stoke, as it turned out.

:45:32. > :45:33.You backed him for the leadership very strongly,

:45:34. > :45:38.After all that scorn on with the claims and

:45:39. > :45:40.counterclaims about Hillsborough, is he still the right leader for

:45:41. > :45:43.What happened with Hillsborough, to be

:45:44. > :45:48.absolutely clear, Paul is someone who was at Hillsborough, he was 12

:45:49. > :45:53.years old at the time, he was there with family

:45:54. > :45:56.and with close personal friends, and he did know somebody

:45:57. > :46:01.What has happened is that somebody has put up

:46:02. > :46:07.on his website, without it being fully checked, a story where they

:46:08. > :46:08.have effectively conflated those two things.

:46:09. > :46:14.And that is something that was done over five years ago, so I

:46:15. > :46:16.completely understand it has been damaging, there has been

:46:17. > :46:23.An error was made many years ago and it's time

:46:24. > :46:25.to draw a line under that and move on.

:46:26. > :46:32.James Airey, obviously this was a good win for

:46:33. > :46:34.the Conservatives but it wasn't the most glorious campaign, was it?

:46:35. > :46:36.The visit by the Prime Minister, not the

:46:37. > :46:39.one we saw on Friday, but the one during the campaign, refusal to give

:46:40. > :46:42.straight answers about the West Cumberland hospitals Alex Cunningham

:46:43. > :46:44.referred to was a bit of a PR own-goal.

:46:45. > :46:46.So did you win despite the concerns over the NHS?

:46:47. > :46:48.What we did was fight a very positive campaign

:46:49. > :46:51.and it is a tremendous result, let's not get away from that.

:46:52. > :46:53.The last time a governing party won a

:46:54. > :46:55.by-election it was back in 1982 when Michael Foot

:46:56. > :46:58.led the Labour Party, and I'm not going to make any

:46:59. > :47:07.comparisons between Jeremy Corbyn and Michael That.

:47:08. > :47:12.We won the campaign because we had an eight

:47:13. > :47:14.excellent local candidate in Trudy Harrison,

:47:15. > :47:16.who worked her socks off, she had a strong, positive campaign

:47:17. > :47:19.that clearly set out what you wanted to achieve for the people of

:47:20. > :47:22.Copeland and it was a negative campaign of Labour that really,

:47:23. > :47:26.We always thought it was going to be close but it was an

:47:27. > :47:29.outstanding victory and Labour did themselves no favours by running

:47:30. > :47:32.But now Trudy Harrison has to deliver on those

:47:33. > :47:35.And over the hospital, whatever she said, the

:47:36. > :47:38.Prime Minister has really failed to say that she will step in to save

:47:39. > :47:42.It could be a very short honeymoon period if those services move.

:47:43. > :47:44.Trudy Harrison could do nothing about it.

:47:45. > :47:45.I know that Trudy Harrison will do

:47:46. > :47:47.her absolute utmost to make sure that local

:47:48. > :47:49.services are returned in

:47:50. > :47:51.Whitehaven Hospital, and that is key for us all.

:47:52. > :47:54.As a Cumbrian Conservative politician, let me put

:47:55. > :47:57.it straight on the record - we support all the local NHS services.

:47:58. > :47:59.That's not the message coming from Downing Street.

:48:00. > :48:02.They were much more equivocal about it and that is going

:48:03. > :48:05.to be a problem if Trudy Harrison can't deliver, because at the top

:48:06. > :48:10.level of Government they are not interested.

:48:11. > :48:12.Trudy has had the Prime Minister up visiting Cumbria straight away.

:48:13. > :48:15.She is going to be talking to trees in May about the

:48:16. > :48:28.That's not forget it was a very costly PFI, huge financial burden,

:48:29. > :48:30.brought in under a Labour Government that caused many of those

:48:31. > :48:35.What we actually need is a Prime Minister who will

:48:36. > :48:37.actually commit to the health service in the West Cumberland.

:48:38. > :48:40.We haven't had that commitment and whilst the new MP may well be

:48:41. > :48:43.committed to it, as the Prime Minister said the new MP is

:48:44. > :48:46.committed to it, we need a Prime Minister who is committed

:48:47. > :48:49.to the NHS, not somebody who shies away from making the

:48:50. > :48:51.OK, we'll see what happens with that.

:48:52. > :48:53.This result, though, doesn't it show how vulnerable

:48:54. > :48:56.Labour MPs in some of the rest of the region are?

:48:57. > :48:57.Places like Darlington, Middlesbrough South - the

:48:58. > :48:59.Conservatives will be licking their lips, even places

:49:00. > :49:01.like Bishop Auckland on the current polling.

:49:02. > :49:03.You should be looking to win seats not

:49:04. > :49:07.Most certainly, and we are working across across the piece, knocking

:49:08. > :49:09.doors and speaking to people all the time.

:49:10. > :49:12.But it is a very real lesson to us and we've got to remember that

:49:13. > :49:19.we mustn't take anything for granted.

:49:20. > :49:21.The north-east has been a bedrock, the whole of the

:49:22. > :49:24.north of England has been a bedrock for the Labour Party, and we mustn't

:49:25. > :49:27.be complacent about that, we must make sure we are in contact with

:49:28. > :49:29.people, taking those messages on social justice

:49:30. > :49:33.OK, would you accept that if you're polling doesn't improve and we keep

:49:34. > :49:36.getting results like Copeland, Jeremy Corbyn cannot lead the party

:49:37. > :49:40.Well, we're coming up to a set of by-elections, not by-elections -

:49:41. > :49:43.council elections and male role in elections, soon and I'm sure that

:49:44. > :49:44.Jeremy will assess what happens then and...

:49:45. > :49:48.It's Groundhog Day, we were in this position last year.

:49:49. > :49:51.Well, we were, yes, and at that stage Jeremy

:49:52. > :49:53.had only been leader for a few months.

:49:54. > :49:56.Now he's been leader of the nearly two years and I think this is

:49:57. > :49:59.a real test of two years of his leadership.

:50:00. > :50:04.I think that's a matter for Jeremy and our other

:50:05. > :50:07.colleagues as well who I'm sure we'll be offering him plenty of

:50:08. > :50:11.advice about what he should do regardless of the results.

:50:12. > :50:13.But I think we need to be able to concentrate

:50:14. > :50:17.It doesn't sound like a ringing endorsement from one of his

:50:18. > :50:20.But, anyway, Jonathan Arnott - the referendum has

:50:21. > :50:23.The lesson of Copeland is that the challenge in

:50:24. > :50:26.the north, to Labour, is coming from the Conservatives, not from Ukip.

:50:27. > :50:29.Well, Copeland is a seat where the Conservatives in a very strong

:50:30. > :50:32.If we had a by-election somewhere in the

:50:33. > :50:35.north-east where Ukip were in a very strong second place I'm sure you'd

:50:36. > :50:37.see something very different, whether its Hartlepool or Blyth

:50:38. > :50:40.Valley for example, 11 of the constituencies in the north-east

:50:41. > :50:44.have Ukip in second place at present, so actually we're in a very

:50:45. > :50:48.strong position to challenge if we can get a positive message out

:50:49. > :50:53.Very briefly, James Airey, with all the

:50:54. > :50:55.promises made, A595, will the Government

:50:56. > :50:58.act on that once they said what they're going to do about it?

:50:59. > :51:01.I'll be working with Trudy, the local transport

:51:02. > :51:03.authority, Cumbria County Council, important elections in May.

:51:04. > :51:05.We need to get that investment into Cumbria,

:51:06. > :51:10.Now, away from the by-election, local authorities have been setting

:51:11. > :51:14.The most householders it means a big rise in bills.

:51:15. > :51:24.Here is that, plus the rest of the week's News in 60 seconds.

:51:25. > :51:28.Northumberland is the latest to put its council tax up by around 5%.

:51:29. > :51:31.Labour councillor, Susan Dungworth, says it still leaves them far short

:51:32. > :51:36.of the amount they need to provide social care for the elderly.

:51:37. > :51:43.What the Government are doing is they are

:51:44. > :51:44.reducing the national funding for social care.

:51:45. > :51:46.And what they are saying to local authorities

:51:47. > :51:48.is you can raise that money yourself.

:51:49. > :51:50.That claim was challenged by Conservative Peter Jackson.

:51:51. > :51:51.Year after year they keep claiming that

:51:52. > :51:53.they're not getting enough money from central Government.

:51:54. > :51:55.I think they've got to look at themselves,

:51:56. > :51:58.the amount of money they are wasting is quite dramatic.

:51:59. > :52:00.A public enquiry into plans for an opencast coal mine

:52:01. > :52:03.in Northumberland will take place on my May.

:52:04. > :52:05.Campaigners have been fighting to stop the Banks group

:52:06. > :52:08.removing 3 million tonnes of coal from land near Widdrington, west of

:52:09. > :52:12.And, finally, tributes have been paid to the

:52:13. > :52:16.veteran Labour politician Don Dixon, who has died at the age of 87.

:52:17. > :52:19.A former shipyard worker, Lord Dixon was MP for Jarrow

:52:20. > :52:26.until 1997 and a former deputy Chief Whip.

:52:27. > :52:28.That's Luke Walton with the 60 second round up.

:52:29. > :52:33.James, a near 4% rise in council tax bills for Cumbria.

:52:34. > :52:36.You're not in control of that council, but is that justified?

:52:37. > :52:39.I think it's very difficult to justify such a high council tax,

:52:40. > :52:42.so should certainly on social care the 2% of that spin ring fenced and

:52:43. > :52:44.Government has encouraged local authorities to charge residents

:52:45. > :52:49.the 2% for providing social care, I think that's very justified.

:52:50. > :52:52.The other 2% we haven't entirely had explained to us how the ruling

:52:53. > :52:56.administration are going to spend it and there's been one heck of a lot

:52:57. > :52:59.There's also been a lot of cut in the

:53:00. > :53:02.Even the social care thing, it's a sticking plaster

:53:03. > :53:06.That money, as with many northern councils, will not raise anywhere

:53:07. > :53:09.near enough to solve the social care crisis.

:53:10. > :53:13.Look, it would be wrong of me to say that there isn't pressure

:53:14. > :53:16.on social care, but I found out just prior to Cumbria's budget last week

:53:17. > :53:20.that the social care Department in Cumbria County Council is actually

:53:21. > :53:24.There was a gaping hole there, they don't know

:53:25. > :53:27.That's just passing the buck, isn't it?

:53:28. > :53:32.I think Government needs to have confidence in local authorities

:53:33. > :53:34.before they start to ramp up extra funding.

:53:35. > :53:37.We need to prove that we can spend it wisely and make sure

:53:38. > :53:39.that money is getting to front line services.

:53:40. > :53:42.Alex, it's going up nearly 5% in Stockton, in your area, but

:53:43. > :53:45.won't people be happy to pay a bit extra to ensure that the vulnerable

:53:46. > :53:51.I think they will be happy to pay that, but let us

:53:52. > :53:54.remember this is a Government levy, not a council tax increase.

:53:55. > :53:56.It's a Government levy in order to pay for social care.

:53:57. > :53:59.But our social care system needs some ?2.6 billion over

:54:00. > :54:03.the next four or five years in order just to break even and we are not

:54:04. > :54:06.getting that money from central Government and it's time they

:54:07. > :54:12.thought about national taxation in order to pay for social care

:54:13. > :54:14.instead of passing the back to local councillors.

:54:15. > :54:17.But this is a local service, why shouldn't council tax be used

:54:18. > :54:19.And then people can see whether the money is

:54:20. > :54:21.being spent wisely in their local area?

:54:22. > :54:23.It has been traditionally delivered locally with Government

:54:24. > :54:26.funding and we've seen huge cuts, billions of pounds cut from social

:54:27. > :54:29.care over recent years and it is time the Government stood back and

:54:30. > :54:31.said how on earth do we put this right?

:54:32. > :54:35.They put that right by accepting responsibility through the taxpayer.

:54:36. > :54:37.Jonathan, Ukip is generally hostile to putting up taxes, as we know,

:54:38. > :54:41.but is this the only way to solve the social care crisis?

:54:42. > :54:44.Well, Ukip on a national level have said that we

:54:45. > :54:47.should be cutting the foreign aid budget so that we are helping with

:54:48. > :54:50.natural disasters and things like that but not some of the worst

:54:51. > :54:54.excesses that we've been seeing, and to plough

:54:55. > :54:58.that money into the NHS and into adult social care.

:54:59. > :55:00.James, there are a lot of conservatives who

:55:01. > :55:02.have agreed with that, wouldn't they?

:55:03. > :55:05.Yes, but that's an entirely different issue and we do need to

:55:06. > :55:08.It's not, it's public money being spent in one

:55:09. > :55:11.Perhaps that's right but we talk about Government

:55:12. > :55:14.cutting social care funding to local authorities, overall funding

:55:15. > :55:17.packages have been cut to local authorities but it is about local

:55:18. > :55:19.choice, if councillors councils have decided to cut social care budgets

:55:20. > :55:22.it has often been Labour-controlled councils that have made

:55:23. > :55:25.I'm sure Alex Wood, if he had time,...

:55:26. > :55:30.There is nothing more local than elected councillors

:55:31. > :55:32.making budget decisions - that is what they do.

:55:33. > :55:35.OK, we'll have to leave it there - I'm sure it's a subject

:55:36. > :55:38.Now, parish councils were traditionally responsible for

:55:39. > :55:40.maintaining flowerbeds, graveyards, the occasional public toilet, but

:55:41. > :55:43.they've taken on an increasingly important role in recent years, but

:55:44. > :55:47.with the extra responsibility has come big rises in the parish precept

:55:48. > :55:51.which is paid by households on top of the other bits of council tax.

:55:52. > :55:52.As Fergus Hewison reports, there appears

:55:53. > :56:03.to be no limit on how high thou those bills can go.

:56:04. > :56:05.Berwick-upon-Tweed - a town used to strife

:56:06. > :56:09.But in recent years there has been civil

:56:10. > :56:13.Would you make of Berwick town council?

:56:14. > :56:16.Not a lot. Why is that?

:56:17. > :56:19.Well, I think there could be a lot more done for

:56:20. > :56:24.We all want what's best for the town and if certain people can't agree

:56:25. > :56:30.I've heard about them at the council meetings and that, I think it's

:56:31. > :56:32.about time they got their act together.

:56:33. > :56:35.So why does the town council have this reputation?

:56:36. > :56:39.The answer perhaps is in these two official reports into terror Berwick

:56:40. > :56:42.town council, both of which paint a picture of a dysfunctional

:56:43. > :56:53.The first report found a culture of mistrust, suspicion and

:56:54. > :56:54.disrespectful behaviour which brought the council into disrepute.

:56:55. > :56:57.Another report looked at the management of ?100,000 one in a

:56:58. > :56:59.competition run by celebrity retail expert Mary Portas.

:57:00. > :57:02.The money was meant to improve Berwick's high-street.

:57:03. > :57:05.But the report says the fund was mismanaged by the town

:57:06. > :57:09.council and it identified significant financial weaknesses.

:57:10. > :57:12.Councillor Georgina Hill claims she attempted to highlight these and

:57:13. > :57:18.The governance was absolutely shocking.

:57:19. > :57:21.There was no due diligence or risk assessment done.

:57:22. > :57:23.Anyone that tried to ask any questions or

:57:24. > :57:27.scrutinise, which is what we are meant to do, was shot down.

:57:28. > :57:29.Berwick town council says the issues raised

:57:30. > :57:35.And others agree that the council has changed.

:57:36. > :57:38.We have a set of accounts now that are transparent and clear.

:57:39. > :57:40.We don't have any secret groups taking decisions without

:57:41. > :57:48.We are on the mend and and we can prove that and demonstrated

:57:49. > :57:51.by what we can see around us, happening in the town, today.

:57:52. > :57:53.All that turmoil in Berwick did not stop

:57:54. > :57:56.the town's share of the council tax, the precept, rising by 35% in just

:57:57. > :58:01.But Berwick's was by no means the biggest increase.

:58:02. > :58:03.Over the last four years, the largest

:58:04. > :58:08.precept increase by any town or parish council in Northumberland

:58:09. > :58:24.council increased it by 268% in this time.

:58:25. > :58:29.In North Yorkshire the largest increase was 350% in Normanby,

:58:30. > :58:32.and in Cumbria it was a massive 610% in Ulfor.

:58:33. > :58:34.At the same time, larger local authorities haven't been able

:58:35. > :58:37.to raise their council tax by more than 2% a year

:58:38. > :58:41.One town council not short of cash is Peterlee in County Durham.

:58:42. > :58:43.If you live in an average-sized house in Peterlee you'll pay

:58:44. > :58:46.almost ?300 a year to the town council for its services.

:58:47. > :58:52.That's the second highest rate in all of England.

:58:53. > :58:54.And there's been controversy too about the council's

:58:55. > :58:56.reserves - it has more than ?1 million in the bank.

:58:57. > :58:58.Hardly surprising, then, that last year a

:58:59. > :59:00.poll of Peterlee residents found they wanted the precept frozen.

:59:01. > :59:03.But a new administration says it's now

:59:04. > :59:08.You're seeing more and more people now wanting to take notice of what

:59:09. > :59:15.You're seeing more and more local social media groups saying,

:59:16. > :59:17.what's going on with this, what's going on with that?

:59:18. > :59:19.The play areas, the allotments dash more and more

:59:20. > :59:23.people in the town are taking a lot more notice because people feel they

:59:24. > :59:26.And many town and parish councils argue

:59:27. > :59:28.increases are justified because they are taking on services

:59:29. > :59:29.that larger councils have stopped providing.

:59:30. > :59:34.England's 10,000 parish councils are being asked to do a lot more,

:59:35. > :59:39.they are asked being asked to do a lot

:59:40. > :59:41.more by their residents, by Government, and indeed by other

:59:42. > :59:44.larger councils that increasingly can't afford to run services that

:59:45. > :59:49.One place that illustrates that point is West Bedlington

:59:50. > :59:51.in Northumberland, where the town precept has risen

:59:52. > :59:59.by 93% in the last four years, all to pay for vital services.

:00:00. > :00:02.We do the very local services, the things like play

:00:03. > :00:06.areas, bus shelters, litter bins - all that sort of the basic town

:00:07. > :00:11.And what we've done is we've tried to get them in the

:00:12. > :00:17.As the scope of many town and parish councils grows, they have more

:00:18. > :00:25.But all that comes at a price and is attracting ever greater scrutiny.

:00:26. > :00:28.And a spokesman from the Department for Communities and

:00:29. > :00:34.Local Government said they expect parish and town councils to

:00:35. > :00:36.demonstrate restraint when setting bills, but point out that parish

:00:37. > :00:39.councils do play a key role in designing new and innovative

:00:40. > :00:43.James Airey, the Government forward says forces

:00:44. > :00:45.larger councils who want to raise council tax above a certain level,

:00:46. > :00:49.it will be 5% this year, to have a referendum before doing it.

:00:50. > :00:50.Why don't they insist on the same thing

:00:51. > :00:54.I think you have to remember, Richard,

:00:55. > :00:56.that many of these parish councils are very small councils, perhaps

:00:57. > :01:04.councils representing some very small villages in general areas.

:01:05. > :01:09.When you look at some of the percentages

:01:10. > :01:10.we are only talking in

:01:11. > :01:14.Now, instinctively, as a Conservative, when we see some of

:01:15. > :01:16.the figures on your report I am shocked,

:01:17. > :01:18.but you need to look at the

:01:19. > :01:20.information behind that and it may be a one-off

:01:21. > :01:21.increase to provide a

:01:22. > :01:24.I mean, our parish councils are having to pick

:01:25. > :01:27.up a lot of services that district councils in particular are no longer

:01:28. > :01:30.Jonathan Arnott, the percentages do look frightening but

:01:31. > :01:33.as James points out, on average, these councils are charging just

:01:34. > :01:35.over ?50 a year - some of them are charging

:01:36. > :01:37.the price of a portion of

:01:38. > :01:39.fish and chips to be honest with you, each year.

:01:40. > :01:43.I mean, basically, we want democracy to be

:01:44. > :01:46.as close as possible to the citizens, so parish and town

:01:47. > :01:48.It brings services as close as possible

:01:49. > :01:53.So all that is good and when you get a parish or town

:01:54. > :01:55.council charging too much of course it is much

:01:56. > :01:59.take control of that council and to do something about it...

:02:00. > :02:01.But part of the problem is a lot of these

:02:02. > :02:04.councils are not even elected because there is so little interest

:02:05. > :02:07.Well, if people see precepts going up then what you've

:02:08. > :02:10.just shown in your video there is that people do then

:02:11. > :02:12.do something about it, get involved and do

:02:13. > :02:17.If services are being moved from a unitary authority down to a

:02:18. > :02:21.town or parish council, the town or parish council puts

:02:22. > :02:24.the precept up but does the parents council as it

:02:25. > :02:31.And if they don't then it's just an extra tax on everybody.

:02:32. > :02:36.James, many of these parish councillors are

:02:37. > :02:38.not elected, they are appointed and co-opted because nobody is

:02:39. > :02:40.interested on sitting on some of these bodies.

:02:41. > :02:42.Don't they need to be democratically accountable or done

:02:43. > :02:45.If nobody is interested in standing, why have them?

:02:46. > :02:49.There are some very good parish councils out

:02:50. > :02:52.there and, let's be frank, there are some lousy ones as well.

:02:53. > :02:53.And I think they have to stimulate interest.

:02:54. > :02:56.What I would advise, if people are interested in their local

:02:57. > :02:58.community then think about being a parish

:02:59. > :03:01.Alex, briefly, we haven't got much time, Labour councils are often

:03:02. > :03:03.passing duties on to these parish and town

:03:04. > :03:05.councils, that's why the

:03:06. > :03:07.Well that certainly hasn't happened in

:03:08. > :03:09.Stockton, but some of bills have gone up.

:03:10. > :03:12.I know Thornaby town council, they have the town hall to

:03:13. > :03:14.look after in Thornaby and that proves very expensive.

:03:15. > :03:18.For me, we need to help people understand more

:03:19. > :03:21.what the small councils do because often what happens is your borough

:03:22. > :03:25.councillors, your unitary authority councillors, get the blame for

:03:26. > :03:27.increases put up by the small organisations.

:03:28. > :03:33.Keep up-to-date by following me on Twitter.

:03:34. > :03:38.Now, though, it's back to Andrew for the rest of the show.

:03:39. > :03:59.Welcome back. Article 50, which triggers the beginning of Britain

:04:00. > :04:02.leaving the European Union and start negotiations, is winding its way

:04:03. > :04:07.through the Lords in this coming week. Tarzan has made an

:04:08. > :04:13.intervention, let's just see the headline from the Mail on Sunday.

:04:14. > :04:18.Lord Heseltine, Michael Heseltine, my fightback starts here, he is

:04:19. > :04:22.going to defy Theresa May. I divide one Prime Minister over the poll

:04:23. > :04:26.tax, I'm ready to defy this one in the Lords over Brexit. There we go,

:04:27. > :04:32.that's going to happen this week. We will see how far he gets. I don't

:04:33. > :04:36.think he will get very far, I don't think Loyalist Tory MPs and

:04:37. > :04:41.Brexiteers are quaking in their boots at the prospect of a rebellion

:04:42. > :04:45.led by Michael Heseltine. I sense that many Tory MPs are already

:04:46. > :04:50.moving on to the next question about Brexit, and the discussion over how

:04:51. > :04:56.much it will cost us to come out. The fact they are already debating

:04:57. > :05:01.that suggests to me they feel things will go fairly smoothly in terms of

:05:02. > :05:05.the legislation. When I spoke to the Labour leader in the Lords last week

:05:06. > :05:08.on the daily politics, she said she was going to push hard for the kind

:05:09. > :05:17.of amendments Lord has all-time is talking about and they would bring

:05:18. > :05:21.that back to the Commons. But if the Commons pinged it back to the Lords

:05:22. > :05:27.with the amendments taken out, she made it clear that was the end of

:05:28. > :05:32.it. Is that right? That's about right. This is probably really a

:05:33. > :05:37.large destruction. There will be to micro issues that come up in the

:05:38. > :05:42.Lords, one is on the future of EU nationals, that could be voted on as

:05:43. > :05:47.soon as this Wednesday, and then the main vote in the Lords on a week on

:05:48. > :05:51.Tuesday, when there is this question of what sort of vote will MPs and

:05:52. > :05:55.peers get at the end of the Brexit process and that is what has

:05:56. > :05:59.all-time is talking about. He wants to make sure there are guarantees in

:06:00. > :06:03.place. The kind of things peers are looking for are pretty moderate and

:06:04. > :06:09.the Government have hinted they could deliver on both of them

:06:10. > :06:13.already. But they are still not prepared... Amber Rudd said they

:06:14. > :06:18.were not prepared... They may say yes we are going to do that but they

:06:19. > :06:23.won't allow whatever that is to be enshrined in the legislation. The

:06:24. > :06:26.question is whether we think this is dancing on the head of a pin. The

:06:27. > :06:30.Government have already promised something in the House of Commons,

:06:31. > :06:34.but will they write it down, I don't think that's the biggest problem in

:06:35. > :06:38.the world. In a sense this is a great magicians trick by Theresa May

:06:39. > :06:44.because it is not the most important thing. The most important thing in

:06:45. > :06:47.Brexit is going on in those committees behind closed doors when

:06:48. > :06:51.they are trying to work out what the next migration system is for Britain

:06:52. > :06:55.and there are some interesting, indeed toxic proposals, but at the

:06:56. > :06:59.moment Downing Street are happy to let us talk about the constitutional

:07:00. > :07:06.propriety of what MPs are doing over the next eight days. It seems to me

:07:07. > :07:09.the irony is that if we had a second chamber that can claim some kind of

:07:10. > :07:14.democratic legitimacy, which the one we have cannot, it would be able to

:07:15. > :07:19.cause the Government more trouble on this, it would be more robust.

:07:20. > :07:27.Absolutely. I saw the interview we did with the Labour Leader of the

:07:28. > :07:31.Lords, they are very conscious, of the fact they are not elected and

:07:32. > :07:35.have limited powers. She was clear to you they would not impede the

:07:36. > :07:39.timetable for triggering Article 50 so we might get a bit of theatre,

:07:40. > :07:46.Michael Heseltine might deliver a brilliant speech. It is interesting

:07:47. > :07:50.that Euroscepticism gun under Margaret Thatcher in the Tory party

:07:51. > :07:54.but two offer senior ministers Ken Clarke and Michael Heseltine are the

:07:55. > :07:59.most prominent opponents now but they will change nothing at this

:08:00. > :08:03.point. She will have the space to trigger Article 50 within her

:08:04. > :08:05.timetable. Let's move on. Let me show you a picture tweeted by Nigel

:08:06. > :08:16.Farage. That is Nigel Farage and a small

:08:17. > :08:20.group of people having dinner, and within that small group of people is

:08:21. > :08:24.the president of the United States, and it was taken in the last couple

:08:25. > :08:31.of days. This would suggest that if he can command that amount of the

:08:32. > :08:35.President's time in a small group of people, then he's actually rather

:08:36. > :08:40.close to the president. Make no mistake about it, Nigel Farage is

:08:41. > :08:46.now to and fro Washington more regularly than perhaps he is here.

:08:47. > :08:52.Hopefully that LBC programme is recorded over in the state. He's not

:08:53. > :08:56.only close to the president but to a series of people within the

:08:57. > :09:01.administration. That relationship there is a remarkable one and one to

:09:02. > :09:05.keep an eye on. Will the main government be tempted to tap into

:09:06. > :09:11.that relationship at any time or is it just seething with anger? You can

:09:12. > :09:18.feel a ripple of discontentment over this. We are in the middle of

:09:19. > :09:21.negotiating the state visit and the sort of pomp and circumstance and

:09:22. > :09:26.what kind of greeting Britain should give Donald Trump when he comes over

:09:27. > :09:30.later in the year. There is a great deal of neurotic thought going into

:09:31. > :09:33.what that should look like, but one of the most interesting things about

:09:34. > :09:36.our relationship with Donald Trump is that there is a nervousness among

:09:37. > :09:41.some Cabinet ministers that we are being seen to go too far, too fast

:09:42. > :09:45.with the prospect of a trade deal. Even amongst some Brexiteer cabinet

:09:46. > :09:49.ministers, they worry we won't get a very good trade deal with the US and

:09:50. > :09:54.we are tolerably placing a lot of stalled by it. When we see the kind

:09:55. > :10:02.of deal they want to pitch with us there might be some pulling back and

:10:03. > :10:05.that could be an awkward moment in terms of our relationship, and no

:10:06. > :10:11.doubt Nigel at that term -- at that point will accuse the UK of doing

:10:12. > :10:18.the dirty on Donald Trump. If there was a deal, would they get it

:10:19. > :10:23.through the House of Commons? Nigel Farage is having dinner with the

:10:24. > :10:26.president, not bad as a kind of lifestyle but he's politically

:10:27. > :10:30.rootless, he won't be an MEP much longer so if you look at where is

:10:31. > :10:34.his political base to build on this great time he's having, there is

:10:35. > :10:38.one. Given that there is one I think he's just having a great time and it

:10:39. > :10:48.isn't much more significant than that. No? There's a lot to be said

:10:49. > :10:57.for having a great time. You are having a great time. Let's just

:10:58. > :11:01.look, because of the dominance of the Government we kind of it nor

:11:02. > :11:07.there are problems piling up, only what, ten days with the Budget to

:11:08. > :11:13.go, piling up for Mrs May and her government. The business rates which

:11:14. > :11:17.has alarmed a lot of Tories, this disability cuts which are really a

:11:18. > :11:21.serious problem for the Government, and the desperate need for more

:11:22. > :11:26.money for social care. There are other issues, there are problems

:11:27. > :11:29.there and they involve spending money. Absolutely and some people

:11:30. > :11:34.argue Theresa May has only one Monday and that is to deliver Brexit

:11:35. > :11:40.but it is impossible as a Prime Minister to ignore everything else.

:11:41. > :11:44.And she doesn't want to either. The bubbling issue of social care and

:11:45. > :11:48.the NHS is the biggest single problem for her in the weeks and

:11:49. > :11:51.months ahead, she has got to come up with something. And Mr Hammond will

:11:52. > :11:57.have to loosen his belt a little bit. I think he will in relation to

:11:58. > :12:00.the NHS, he didn't mention it in the Autumn Statement, which was

:12:01. > :12:05.remarkable, and he cannot get away with not mentioning it this time. If

:12:06. > :12:08.he mentions it, it has to be in a positive context in some way or

:12:09. > :12:12.another and it is one example of many. She is both strong because she

:12:13. > :12:17.is so far ahead in the opinion polls, but this in tray is one of

:12:18. > :12:22.the most daunting a Prime Minister has faced in recent times I think.

:12:23. > :12:29.Here is what will happen on Budget day, money will be more money,

:12:30. > :12:35.magically found down the back of the Treasury sofa. The projections are

:12:36. > :12:39.that he has wiggle room of about 12 billion. But look at the bills,

:12:40. > :12:43.rebels involved in business rates suggest the Chancellor will have to

:12:44. > :12:47.throw up ?2 billion at that problem. 3.7 billion is the potential cost of

:12:48. > :12:51.this judgment about disability benefits. The Government will try to

:12:52. > :12:57.find different ways of satisfying it but who knows. It will not popular.

:12:58. > :13:00.I'm not sure they will throw money at the NHS, they want an interim

:13:01. > :13:05.settlement on social care which will alleviate pressure on the NHS but

:13:06. > :13:11.they feel... That's another couple of billion by the way. They feel in

:13:12. > :13:16.the Treasury that the NHS has not delivered on what Simon Stevens

:13:17. > :13:21.promised them. But here is the bigger problem for Philip Hammond,

:13:22. > :13:25.he has two This year and he thinks the second one in the autumn is more

:13:26. > :13:26.important because that is when people will feel the cost living

:13:27. > :13:29.squeeze. The Daily Politics is back at noon

:13:30. > :13:32.on BBC Two tomorrow. We'll be back here at

:13:33. > :13:35.the same time next week. Remember - if it's Sunday,

:13:36. > :13:41.it's the Sunday Politics.