:00:35. > :00:40.It's Sunday Morning and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:41. > :00:43.The Chancellor says that to embark on a spending spree
:00:44. > :00:45.in Wednesday's Budget would be "reckless".
:00:46. > :00:48.But will there be more money for social care and to ease
:00:49. > :00:54.The UK terror threat is currently severe,
:00:55. > :00:56.but where is that threat coming from?
:00:57. > :00:59.We have the detailed picture from a vast new study of every
:01:00. > :01:03.Islamist related terrorist offence committed over the last two decades.
:01:04. > :01:09.What can we learn from these offences to thwart future attacks?
:01:10. > :01:12.The government was defeated in the Lords on its
:01:13. > :01:17.We'll ask the Leader of the House of Commons what he'll do if peers
:01:18. > :01:20.In the North East and Cumbria: MPs call for action to secure the future
:01:21. > :01:24.And, after losing Copeland what other
:01:25. > :01:35.Labour-held seats in the North are now vulnerable?
:01:36. > :01:39.All that coming up in the next hour and a quarter.
:01:40. > :01:41.Now, some of you might have read that intruders managed
:01:42. > :01:44.to get into the BBC news studios this weekend.
:01:45. > :01:47.Well three of them appear not to have been ejected yet,
:01:48. > :01:50.so we might as well make use of them as our political panel.
:01:51. > :01:53.Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards.
:01:54. > :01:58.They'll be tweeting throughout the programme.
:01:59. > :02:04.Philip Hammond will deliver his second financial
:02:05. > :02:06.statement as Chancellor and the last Spring Budget
:02:07. > :02:09.for a while at least - they are moving to the Autumn
:02:10. > :02:13.There's been pressure on him to find more money
:02:14. > :02:15.for the Health Service, social care, schools funding,
:02:16. > :02:20.But this morning the Chancellor insisted that he will not be
:02:21. > :02:23.using the proceeds of better than expected tax receipts to embark
:02:24. > :02:34.What is being speculated on is whether we might not have borrowed
:02:35. > :02:41.quite as much as we were forecast to borrow. You will see the numbers on
:02:42. > :02:45.Wednesday. But if your bank increases your credit card limit, I
:02:46. > :02:47.do not think you feel obliged to go out and spent every last penny of it
:02:48. > :02:59.He is moving the budget to the autumn, he told us that in his
:03:00. > :03:05.statement, so maybe on Wednesday it will be like a spring statement
:03:06. > :03:09.rather than a full-blown budget. Tinkering pre-Brexit and in November
:03:10. > :03:12.he will have a more clear idea of the impact of Brexit and I suspect
:03:13. > :03:18.that will be the bigger event than this one. It looks as if there will
:03:19. > :03:23.be a bit of money here and there, small amounts, not enough in my
:03:24. > :03:28.view, for social care and so on, possibly a review of social care
:03:29. > :03:32.policy. A familiar device which rarely get anywhere. I think he has
:03:33. > :03:37.got a bit more space to do more if he wanted to do now because of the
:03:38. > :03:42.politics. They are miles ahead in the polls, so he could do more, but
:03:43. > :03:48.it is not in his character, he is cautious. So he keeps his powder dry
:03:49. > :03:55.on most things, he does some things, but he keeps it dry until November.
:03:56. > :03:59.But also, as Steve says, he will know just how strong the economy has
:04:00. > :04:03.been this year by November and whether he needs to do some pump
:04:04. > :04:09.priming or whether everything is fine. He said it is too early to
:04:10. > :04:13.make those sorts of judgments now. What is striking is the amount of
:04:14. > :04:18.concern there is an Number ten and in the Treasury about the tone of
:04:19. > :04:21.this budget, so less about the actual figures and more about what
:04:22. > :04:27.message this is sending out to the rest of the world. I think some
:04:28. > :04:31.senior MPs are calling it a kind of treading water budget and Phil
:04:32. > :04:35.Hammond has got quite a difficult act to perform because he is
:04:36. > :04:42.instinctively rather cautious, or very cautious, and instinctively
:04:43. > :04:46.slightly gloomy about Brexit. He wanted to remain. But he does not
:04:47. > :04:51.want this budget to sounded downbeat and he will be mauled if he makes it
:04:52. > :04:55.sound downbeat, so he has to inject a little bit of optimism and we may
:04:56. > :05:01.see that in the infrastructure spending plans. He has got some room
:05:02. > :05:05.to manoeuvre. The deficit by the financial year ending in April we
:05:06. > :05:09.now know will not be as big as the OBR told us only three and a half
:05:10. > :05:14.months ago that it would be. They added 12 billion on and they may
:05:15. > :05:17.take most of that off again. He is under pressure from his own side to
:05:18. > :05:22.do something on social care and business rates and I bet some Tory
:05:23. > :05:27.backbenchers would not mind a little bit more money for the NHS as well.
:05:28. > :05:34.He is on a huge pressure to do a whole lot on a whole load, not just
:05:35. > :05:40.social care. There is also how on earth do we pay for so many old
:05:41. > :05:46.people? There is the NHS, defence spending, everything. But his words
:05:47. > :05:50.this morning, which is I am not going to spend potentially an extra
:05:51. > :05:55.30 billion I might have by 2020 because of improved economic growth
:05:56. > :06:01.was interesting. You need to hold something back because Brexit might
:06:02. > :06:08.go back and he was a bit of a remain campaign person. If you think
:06:09. > :06:12.Britain is going to curl up into a corner and hideaway licking its
:06:13. > :06:15.wounds, you have got another think coming. That 30 billion he might
:06:16. > :06:21.have extra in his pocket could be worth deploying on building up
:06:22. > :06:28.Britain with huge tax cuts in case there is no deal, a war chest if you
:06:29. > :06:32.like. He will have more than 27 billion. He may decide 27 billion in
:06:33. > :06:37.the statement, the margin by which he tries to get the structural
:06:38. > :06:41.deficit down, he will still have 27 billion. If the receipts are better
:06:42. > :06:48.than they are forecast, some people are saying he will have a war chest
:06:49. > :06:54.of 60 billion. That money, as Mr Osborne found out, can disappear. He
:06:55. > :07:00.clearly is planning not to go on a spending spree this Wednesday. It is
:07:01. > :07:05.interesting in the FTB and the day, David Laws who was chief Secretary
:07:06. > :07:08.for five minutes, was also enthusiastic about the original
:07:09. > :07:13.George Osborne austerity programme and he said, we have reached the
:07:14. > :07:16.limits to what is socially possible with this and a consensus is
:07:17. > :07:21.beginning to emerge that he will have to spend more money than he
:07:22. > :07:26.plans to this Wednesday. This is not just from Labour MPs, but from a lot
:07:27. > :07:30.of Conservative MPs as well. People will wonder when this austerity will
:07:31. > :07:32.end because it seems to be going on for ever. We will have more on the
:07:33. > :07:36.budget later in the programme. Now, the government was defeated
:07:37. > :07:39.last week in the House of Lords. Peers amended the bill that
:07:40. > :07:41.will allow Theresa May to trigger Brexit to guarantee the rights of EU
:07:42. > :07:44.nationals currently in the UK. The government says it will remove
:07:45. > :07:47.the amendment when the bill returns But today a report from
:07:48. > :07:53.the Common's Brexit committee also calls for the Government to make
:07:54. > :07:56.a unilateral decision to safeguard the rights of EU
:07:57. > :08:01.nationals living here. If the worst happened,
:08:02. > :08:04.are we actually going to say to 3 million Europeans here,
:08:05. > :08:08.who are nurses, doctors, serving us tea and coffee in restaurants,
:08:09. > :08:12.giving lectures at Leeds University, picking and processing vegetables,
:08:13. > :08:14."Right, off you go"? No, of course we are not
:08:15. > :08:17.going to say that. So, why not end the
:08:18. > :08:19.uncertainty for them now? will help to create the climate
:08:20. > :08:23.which will ensure everyone gets to say because that's
:08:24. > :08:34.what all of us want. That is why we have unanimously
:08:35. > :08:40.agreed this recommendation that the government should make unilateral
:08:41. > :08:43.decision to say to EU citizens here, yes, you can stay, because we think
:08:44. > :08:44.that is the right and fair thing to do.
:08:45. > :08:47.And we're joined now from Buckinghamshire by the leader
:08:48. > :08:51.of the House of Commons, David Lidington.
:08:52. > :08:57.Welcome back to the programme. The House of Lords has amended the
:08:58. > :09:00.Article 50 bill to allow the unilateral acceptance of EU
:09:01. > :09:03.nationals' right to remain in the UK. Is it still the government was
:09:04. > :09:11.my intention to remove that amendment in the comments? We have
:09:12. > :09:14.always been clear that we think this bill is very straightforward, it
:09:15. > :09:19.does nothing else except give the Prime Minister the authority that
:09:20. > :09:24.the courts insist upon to start the Article 50 process of negotiating
:09:25. > :09:31.with the other 27 EU countries. On the particular issue of EU citizens
:09:32. > :09:37.here and British citizens overseas, the PM did suggest that the December
:09:38. > :09:43.European summit last year that we do a pre-negotiation agreement on this.
:09:44. > :09:47.That was not acceptable to all of the other 27 because they took the
:09:48. > :09:51.view that you cannot have any kind of negotiation and to Article 50 has
:09:52. > :09:56.been triggered. That is where we are. I hope with goodwill and
:09:57. > :10:01.national self interest on all sides we can tackle this is right that the
:10:02. > :10:05.start of those negotiations. But it is not just the Lords. We have now
:10:06. > :10:10.got the cross-party Commons Brexit committee saying you should now make
:10:11. > :10:18.the unilateral decision to safeguard the rights of EU nationals in the
:10:19. > :10:24.UK. Even Michael go, Peter Lilley, John Whittington, agree. So why are
:10:25. > :10:28.you so stubborn on this issue? I think this is a complex issue that
:10:29. > :10:34.goes beyond the rise of presidents, but about things like the rights of
:10:35. > :10:42.access to health care, to pension ratings and benefits and so on...
:10:43. > :10:46.But you could settle back. It is also, Andrew, because you have got
:10:47. > :10:50.to look at it from the point of view of the British citizens, well over 1
:10:51. > :10:55.million living elsewhere in Europe. If we make the unilateral gesture,
:10:56. > :10:59.it might make us feel good for Britain and it would help in the
:11:00. > :11:05.short term those EU citizens who are here, but you have got those British
:11:06. > :11:09.citizens overseas who would then be potential bargaining chips in the
:11:10. > :11:15.hands of any of the 27 other governments. We do not know who will
:11:16. > :11:20.be in office during the negotiations and they may have completely
:11:21. > :11:23.extraneous reasons to hold up the agreement on the rights of British
:11:24. > :11:29.citizens. The sensible way to deal with this is 28 mature democracies
:11:30. > :11:32.getting around the table starting the negotiations and to agree to
:11:33. > :11:39.something that is fair to all sides and is reciprocal. What countries
:11:40. > :11:45.might take on UK nationals living in the EU? What countries are you
:11:46. > :11:50.frightened of? The one thing that I know from my own experience in the
:11:51. > :11:55.past of being involved in European negotiations is that issues come up
:11:56. > :12:02.that maybe have nothing to do with British nationals, but another issue
:12:03. > :12:06.that matters a huge amount to a particular government, it may not be
:12:07. > :12:11.a government yet in office, and they decide we can get something out of
:12:12. > :12:15.this, so let's hold up the agreement on British citizens until the
:12:16. > :12:21.British move in the direction we want on issue X. I hope it does not
:12:22. > :12:25.come to that. I think the messages I have had from EU ambassadors in
:12:26. > :12:30.London and from those it my former Europe colleague ministers is that
:12:31. > :12:34.we want this to be a done deal as quickly as possible. That is the
:12:35. > :12:40.British Government's very clear intention. We hope that we can get a
:12:41. > :12:44.reciprocal deal agreed before the Article 50 process. That was not
:12:45. > :12:49.possible. I understand that, you have said that already. But even if
:12:50. > :12:54.there is no reciprocal deal being done, is it really credible that EU
:12:55. > :13:00.nationals already here would lose their right to live and work and
:13:01. > :13:08.face deportation? You know that is not credible, that will not happen.
:13:09. > :13:13.We have already under our own system law whereby some people who have
:13:14. > :13:17.been lawfully resident and working here for five years can apply for
:13:18. > :13:22.permanent residency, but it is not just about residents. It is about
:13:23. > :13:25.whether residency carries with it certain rights of access to health
:13:26. > :13:33.care. I understand that, but have made this point. But the point is
:13:34. > :13:38.the right to live and work here that worries them at the moment. The Home
:13:39. > :13:44.Secretary has said there can be no change in their status without a
:13:45. > :13:47.vote in parliament. Could you ever imagine the British Parliament
:13:48. > :13:53.voting to remove their right to live and work here? I think the British
:13:54. > :14:01.Parliament will want to be very fair to EU citizens, as Hilary Benn and
:14:02. > :14:04.others rightly say they have been overwhelmingly been here working
:14:05. > :14:08.hard and paying taxes and contributing to our society. They
:14:09. > :14:13.were equally want to make sure there is a fair deal for our own citizens,
:14:14. > :14:17.more than a million, elsewhere in Europe. You cannot disentangle the
:14:18. > :14:22.issue of residence from those things that go with residents. Is the
:14:23. > :14:26.Article 50 timetabled to be triggered before the end of this
:14:27. > :14:32.month, is it threatened by these amendments in the Lords? I sincerely
:14:33. > :14:37.hope not because the House of Lords is a perfectly respectable
:14:38. > :14:40.constitutional role to look again at bills sent up by the House of
:14:41. > :14:47.commons. But they also have understood traditionally that as an
:14:48. > :14:51.unelected house they have to give primacy to the elected Commons at
:14:52. > :14:57.the end of the day. In this case it is not just the elected Commons that
:14:58. > :15:05.sent the bill to be amended, but the referendum that lies behind that. It
:15:06. > :15:07.is not possible? We are confident we can get Article 50 triggered by the
:15:08. > :15:15.end of the month. One of the other Lords amendments
:15:16. > :15:19.will be to have a meaningful vote on the Brexit deal when it is done at
:15:20. > :15:24.the end of the process, what is your view on that? What would you
:15:25. > :15:29.understand by a meaningful vote? The Government has already said there is
:15:30. > :15:35.going to be a meaningful vote at the end of the process. What do you mean
:15:36. > :15:39.by a meaningful vote? The parliament will get the opportunity to vote on
:15:40. > :15:42.the deal before it finishes the EU level process of going to
:15:43. > :15:49.consideration by the European Parliament. Parliament will be given
:15:50. > :15:55.a choice, as I understand, for either a vote for the deal you have
:15:56. > :16:00.negotiated or we leave on WTO rules and crash out anyway, is that what
:16:01. > :16:04.you mean by a meaningful choice? Parliament will get the choice to
:16:05. > :16:09.vote on the deal, but I think you have put your finger on the problem
:16:10. > :16:16.with trying to write something into the bill because any idea that the
:16:17. > :16:23.PM's freedom to negotiate is limited, any idea that if the EU 27
:16:24. > :16:27.were to play hardball, that somehow that means parliament would take
:16:28. > :16:30.fright, reverse the referendum verdict and set aside the views of
:16:31. > :16:35.the British people, that would almost guarantee that it would be
:16:36. > :16:41.much more difficult to get the sort of ambitious mutually beneficial
:16:42. > :16:45.deal for us and the EU 27. Your idea of a meaningful vote in parliament
:16:46. > :16:50.is the choices either to vote to accept this deal or we leave anyway,
:16:51. > :16:57.that is your idea of a meaningful vote. The Article 50 process is
:16:58. > :17:02.straightforward. There is the position of both parties in the
:17:03. > :17:11.recent Supreme Court case that the Article 50 process once triggered is
:17:12. > :17:16.irrevocable. That is in the EU Treaty already but we are saying
:17:17. > :17:23.very clearly that Parliament will get that right to debate and vote. I
:17:24. > :17:27.think the problem with what some in the House of Lords are proposing, I
:17:28. > :17:32.hope it is not a majority, is that the amendments they would seek to
:17:33. > :17:35.insert would tie the Prime Minister's hands, limit and
:17:36. > :17:37.negotiating freedom and put her in a more difficult position to negotiate
:17:38. > :17:43.on behalf of this country than should be the case. One year ago you
:17:44. > :17:47.said it could take six to eight years to agree a free-trade deal
:17:48. > :17:53.with the EU. Now you think you can do it in two, what's changed your
:17:54. > :18:07.mind? There is a very strong passionate supporter of Remain, as
:18:08. > :18:11.you know. I hope very much we are able to conclude not just the terms
:18:12. > :18:17.of the exit deal but the agreement that we are seeking on the long-term
:18:18. > :18:22.trade relationship... I understand that, but I'm trying to work out,
:18:23. > :18:28.what makes you think you can do it in two years when only a year ago
:18:29. > :18:33.you said it would take up to wait? The referendum clearly makes a big
:18:34. > :18:39.difference, and I think that there is an understanding amongst real the
:18:40. > :18:46.other 27 governments now that it is in everybody's interests to sort
:18:47. > :18:51.this shared challenge out of negotiating a new relationship
:18:52. > :18:54.between the EU 27 and the UK because European countries, those in and
:18:55. > :19:03.those who will be out of the EU, share the need to face up to massive
:19:04. > :19:06.challenges like terrorism and technological change. All of that
:19:07. > :19:09.was pretty obvious one year ago but we will see what happens. Thank you,
:19:10. > :19:11.David Lidington. Now, the Sunday Politics has had
:19:12. > :19:14.sight of a major new report The thousand-page study,
:19:15. > :19:19.which researchers say is the most comprehensive ever produced,
:19:20. > :19:25.analyses all 269 Islamist telated terrorist offences
:19:26. > :19:28.committed between 1998-2015. Most planned attacks were,
:19:29. > :19:29.thankfully, thwarted, but what can we learn
:19:30. > :19:31.from those offences? For the police and the intelligence
:19:32. > :19:41.agencies to fight terror, Researchers at the security think
:19:42. > :19:48.tank The Henry Jackson Society gave us early access to their huge
:19:49. > :19:58.new report which analyses every Islamism related attack
:19:59. > :20:00.and prosecution in the UK since 1998, that's 269 cases
:20:01. > :20:04.involving 253 perpetrators. With issues as sensitive
:20:05. > :20:07.as counterterrorism and counter radicalisation, it is really
:20:08. > :20:09.important to have an evidence base from which you draw
:20:10. > :20:11.policy and policing, This isn't my opinion,
:20:12. > :20:16.this the facts. This chart shows the number
:20:17. > :20:18.of cases each year combined with a small number
:20:19. > :20:22.of successful suicide attacks. Notice the peak in the middle
:20:23. > :20:25.of the last decade around the time of the 7/7 bombings
:20:26. > :20:29.in London in 2005. Offences tailed off,
:20:30. > :20:32.before rising again from 2010, when a three-year period accounted
:20:33. > :20:35.for a third of all the terrorism cases since the researchers
:20:36. > :20:40.started counting. What we are seeing is a combination
:20:41. > :20:44.of both more offending, in terms of the threat increasing,
:20:45. > :20:47.we know that from the security services and police statements,
:20:48. > :20:49.but also I believe we are getting more efficient in terms
:20:50. > :20:52.of our policing and we are actually A third of people were found to have
:20:53. > :21:01.facilitated terrorism, that's providing encouragement,
:21:02. > :21:04.documents, money. About 18% of people
:21:05. > :21:07.were aspirational terrorists, 12% of convictions were related
:21:08. > :21:13.to travel, to training And 37% of people were convicted
:21:14. > :21:21.of planning attacks, although the methods have
:21:22. > :21:25.changed over time. Five or six years ago,
:21:26. > :21:29.we saw lots of people planning or attempting pipe bombs and most
:21:30. > :21:32.of the time they had Inspire magazine in their possession,
:21:33. > :21:35.that's a magazine, an Al-Qaeda English-language online
:21:36. > :21:37.magazine that had specific More recently we have seen
:21:38. > :21:42.Islamic State encouraging people to engage in lower tech knife
:21:43. > :21:45.beheading, stabbings attacks and I think that's why we have
:21:46. > :21:48.seen that more recently. Shasta Khan plotted with her
:21:49. > :21:52.husband to bomb the Jewish In 2012 she received
:21:53. > :21:57.an eight-year prison sentence. She's one of an increasing
:21:58. > :22:02.number of women convicted of an Islamism related offence
:22:03. > :22:04.although it is still overwhelmingly a crime carried out
:22:05. > :22:08.by men in their 20s. Despite fears of foreign terrorists,
:22:09. > :22:10.a report says the vast Most have their home in London,
:22:11. > :22:19.around 43% of them. 18% lived in the West Midlands,
:22:20. > :22:22.particularly in Birmingham, and the north-west is another
:22:23. > :22:24.hotspot with around 10% Richard Dart lived in Weymouth
:22:25. > :22:31.and tried to attend a terrorist He was a convert to Islam, as were
:22:32. > :22:40.60% of the people in this report. He was a convert to Islam, as were
:22:41. > :22:44.16% of the people in this report. Like the majority of cases,
:22:45. > :22:46.he had a family, network. What's particularly interesting
:22:47. > :22:49.is how different each story is in many ways,
:22:50. > :22:52.but then within those differences So your angry young men,
:22:53. > :23:00.in the one sense inspired to travel, seek training and combat experience
:23:01. > :23:07.abroad, and then the older, recruiter father-figure types,
:23:08. > :23:09.the fundraising facilitator types. There are types within
:23:10. > :23:12.this terrorism picture, but the range of backgrounds
:23:13. > :23:18.and experiences is huge. And three quarters of those
:23:19. > :23:20.convicted of Islamist terrorism were on the radar of the authorities
:23:21. > :23:23.because they had a previous criminal record, they had
:23:24. > :23:27.made their extremism public, or because MI5 had them
:23:28. > :23:32.under surveillance. To discuss the findings of this
:23:33. > :23:39.report are the former Security Minister Pauline Neville-Jones,
:23:40. > :23:42.Talha Ahmad from the Muslim Council of Britain, and Adam Deen
:23:43. > :23:57.from the anti-extremist group The report finds the most segregated
:23:58. > :24:03.Muslim community is, the more likely it is to incubate Islamist
:24:04. > :24:07.terrorists, what is the MCB doing to encourage more integrated
:24:08. > :24:11.communities? Its track record on calling for reaching out to the
:24:12. > :24:15.wider society and having a more integrated and cohesive society I
:24:16. > :24:21.think is a pretty strong one, so one thing we are doing for example very
:24:22. > :24:25.recently I've seen we had this visit my mosque initiative, the idea was
:24:26. > :24:28.that mosques become open to inviting people of other faiths and their
:24:29. > :24:34.neighbours to come so we were encouraged to see so many
:24:35. > :24:40.participating. It is one step forward. Is it a good thing or a bad
:24:41. > :24:45.thing that in a number of Muslim communities, the Muslim population
:24:46. > :24:48.is over 60% of the community? I personally and the council would
:24:49. > :24:52.prefer to have more mixed communities but one of the reason
:24:53. > :24:57.they are heavily concentrated is not so much because they prefer to but
:24:58. > :25:02.often because the socio- economic reality forces them to. But you
:25:03. > :25:06.would like to see less segregation? Absolutely, we would prefer more
:25:07. > :25:11.diverse communities around the country. What is your reaction to
:25:12. > :25:15.that? Will need more diverse communities but one of the
:25:16. > :25:19.challenges we have right now with certain organisations is this
:25:20. > :25:22.pushback against the Government, with its attempts to help young
:25:23. > :25:28.Muslims not go down this journey of extremism. One of those things is
:25:29. > :25:31.the Prevent strategy and we often hear organisations like the MCB
:25:32. > :25:36.attacking the strategy which is counter-productive. What do you say
:25:37. > :25:42.to that? Do we support the Government have initiatives to
:25:43. > :25:47.counteract terrorism, of course we do. Do you support the Prevent
:25:48. > :25:53.strategy? We don't because it scapegoats an entire community. The
:25:54. > :25:57.report shows that contrary to a lot of lone wolf theories and people
:25:58. > :26:01.being radicalised in their bedrooms on the Internet that 80% of those
:26:02. > :26:21.convicted had connections with the extremist groups. Indeed 25% willing
:26:22. > :26:27.to Al-Muhajiroun. I think this report, which is a thorough piece of
:26:28. > :26:32.work, charts a long period and it is probably true to say that in the
:26:33. > :26:35.earlier stages these organisations were very important, of course
:26:36. > :26:41.subsequently we have had direct recruiting by IS one to one over the
:26:42. > :26:45.Internet so we have a mixed picture of how people are recruited but
:26:46. > :26:49.there's no doubt these organisations are recruiting sergeants. You were
:26:50. > :26:58.once a member of one of these organisations, are we doing enough
:26:59. > :27:07.to thwart them? If we just focus on these organisations, we will fail.
:27:08. > :27:10.We -- the question is are we doing enough to neutralise them? The
:27:11. > :27:16.Government strategy is in the right place, but where we need to focus on
:27:17. > :27:21.is the Muslim community or communities. The Muslim community
:27:22. > :27:26.must realise that these violent extremists are fringe but they share
:27:27. > :27:29.ideas, a broad spectrum of ideas that penetrate deeply within Muslim
:27:30. > :27:33.communities and we need to tackle those ideas because that is where it
:27:34. > :27:41.all begins. Are you in favour of banning groups like Al-Muhajiroun?
:27:42. > :27:46.Yes, it was the right thing to do and I can tell you the community has
:27:47. > :27:53.moved a long way, Al-Muhajiroun does not have support. Do you agree with
:27:54. > :28:01.that? Yes, but it is very simplistic attacking Al-Muhajiroun. ISIS didn't
:28:02. > :28:05.bring about extremism, extremism brought about ISIS, ISIS is just the
:28:06. > :28:10.brand and if we don't deal with the ideological ideas we will have other
:28:11. > :28:17.organisations popping up. The report suggests that almost a quarter of
:28:18. > :28:22.Islamist the latest offences were committed by individuals previous
:28:23. > :28:27.unknown to the security services. And this is on the rise, these
:28:28. > :28:29.numbers. This would seem to make an already difficult task for our
:28:30. > :28:36.intelligence services almost impossible. Two points. It is over
:28:37. > :28:44.80% I think were known, but it shows the intelligence services and police
:28:45. > :28:49.have got their eyes open. But the trend has been towards more not on
:28:50. > :28:55.the radar. That has been because the nature of the recruitment has also
:28:56. > :29:02.changed and you have much more ISIS inspired go out and do it yourself,
:29:03. > :29:07.get a knife, do something simple, so we have fewer of the big
:29:08. > :29:16.spectaculars that ISIS organised. Now you have got locally organised
:29:17. > :29:20.people, two or three people get together, do something together,
:29:21. > :29:27.very much harder actually to get forewarning of that. That is where
:29:28. > :29:33.intelligence inside the community, the community coming to the police
:29:34. > :29:38.say I'm worried about my friend, this is how you get ahead of that
:29:39. > :29:42.kind of attack. Should people in the Muslim community who are worried
:29:43. > :29:46.about individuals being radicalised, perhaps going down the terrorist
:29:47. > :29:52.route, should they bring in the police? Absolutely and we have been
:29:53. > :29:56.consistent on telling the community that wherever they suspect someone
:29:57. > :29:59.has been involved in terrorism or any kind of criminal activity, they
:30:00. > :30:07.should call the police and cooperate. As the so-called
:30:08. > :30:09.caliphate collapses in the Middle East, how worried should we be about
:30:10. > :30:23.fighters returning here? Extremely worried. They fall into
:30:24. > :30:27.three categories. You have ones who are disillusioned about Islamic
:30:28. > :30:29.State. You have ones who are disturbed, and then you have the
:30:30. > :30:35.dangerous who have not disavowed their ideas and who will have great
:30:36. > :30:42.reasons to perform attacks. What do we do? Anyone who comes back, there
:30:43. > :30:48.should be evidence looked into if they committed any crimes. But all
:30:49. > :30:52.those categories should all be be radicalised. You cannot leave them
:30:53. > :30:58.alone. Will we be sure if we know when they come back? That is
:30:59. > :31:05.difficult to say. They could come in and we might not know. There is a
:31:06. > :31:12.watch list so you have got a better chance. And you can identify them?
:31:13. > :31:15.This is where working with other countries is absolutely crucial and
:31:16. > :31:20.our border controls need to be good as well. I am not saying and the
:31:21. > :31:24.government is not saying that anyone would ever slip through, but it is
:31:25. > :31:30.our ability to know when somebody is coming through and to stop them at
:31:31. > :31:34.the border has improved. An important question. Given your
:31:35. > :31:41.experience, how prepared are away for a Paris style attack in a
:31:42. > :31:46.medium-size, provincial city? The government has exercised this one.
:31:47. > :31:50.It started when I was security minister and it has been taken
:31:51. > :31:54.seriously. The single biggest challenge that the police and the
:31:55. > :31:57.Army says will be one of those mobile, roving attacks. You have to
:31:58. > :32:02.take it seriously and the government does. All right, we will leave it
:32:03. > :32:06.Now, Brexit may have swept austerity from the front pages,
:32:07. > :32:08.but the deficit hasn't gone away and the government is still
:32:09. > :32:12.Just this week Whitehall announced that government departments have
:32:13. > :32:16.been told to find another ?3.5bn worth of savings by 2020.
:32:17. > :32:19.Last November the Independent office for Budget Responsibility
:32:20. > :32:22.said the budget deficit would be ?68 billion in the current
:32:23. > :32:27.It would still be ?17 billion by 2021-22.
:32:28. > :32:30.On Wednesday the Chancellor is expected to announce
:32:31. > :32:35.that the 2016-17 deficit has come in much lower than the OBR forecast.
:32:36. > :32:39.Even so, the government is still aiming for the lowest level
:32:40. > :32:44.of public spending as a percentage of national income since 2003-4,
:32:45. > :32:47.coupled with an increase in the tax burden to its highest
:32:48. > :32:53.So spending cuts will continue with reductions in day-to-day
:32:54. > :32:56.government spending accelerating, producing a real terms cut of over
:32:57. > :33:03.But capital spending, investment on infrastructure
:33:04. > :33:07.like roads, hospitals, housing, is projected to grow,
:33:08. > :33:13.producing a 16 billion real terms increase by 2021-22.
:33:14. > :33:17.The Chancellor's task on Wednesday is to keep these fiscal targets
:33:18. > :33:19.while finding some more money for areas under serious
:33:20. > :33:27.pressure such as the NHS, social care and business rates.
:33:28. > :33:31.We're joined now by Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
:33:32. > :33:38.Welcome back to the programme. In last March's budget the OBR
:33:39. > :33:43.predicted just over 2% economic growth for this year. By the Autumn
:33:44. > :33:48.Statement in the wake of the Brexit vote it downgraded back to 1.4%. It
:33:49. > :33:54.is now expected to revise that back around to 2% as the Bank of England
:33:55. > :33:58.has again. It is speculated on the future. It looks like we will get a
:33:59. > :34:04.growth forecast for this year not very different from where it was a
:34:05. > :34:07.year ago. What the bank did was upgrade its forecast for the next
:34:08. > :34:12.year or so, but not change very much. It was thinking about three or
:34:13. > :34:17.four years' time, which is what really matters. It looked like the
:34:18. > :34:21.OBR made a mistake in downgrading the growth in the Autumn Statement
:34:22. > :34:26.three months ago. It was more optimistic than nearly all the other
:34:27. > :34:33.forecasters and the Bank of England. It was wrong, but not as wrong as
:34:34. > :34:36.everybody else. We don't know, but if it significantly upgraded its
:34:37. > :34:43.growth forecast for the next three or four years, I would be surprised.
:34:44. > :34:47.It also added 12 billion to the deficit for the current financial
:34:48. > :34:52.year in the Autumn Statement, compared with March. It looks like
:34:53. > :34:57.that deficit will probably be cut again by about 12 billion compared
:34:58. > :35:01.to the last OBR forecast. It is quite difficult to make economic
:35:02. > :35:07.policy on the basis of changes of that skill every couple of months.
:35:08. > :35:12.That is one of the problems about having these two economic event so
:35:13. > :35:15.close together. My guess is the number will come out somewhere
:35:16. > :35:19.between the budget and the Autumn Statement numbers. There was a nice
:35:20. > :35:24.surprise for the Chancellor last month which looked like tax revenues
:35:25. > :35:28.were coming in a lot more strongly than he expected. But again the real
:35:29. > :35:32.question is how much is this making a difference in the medium run? Is
:35:33. > :35:38.this a one-off thing all good news for the next several years? If
:35:39. > :35:42.growth and revenues are stronger, perhaps not as strong as the good
:35:43. > :35:46.news last month, but if they are stronger than had been forecast in
:35:47. > :35:51.the Autumn Statement, what does that mean for planned spending cuts? It
:35:52. > :35:55.probably does not mean very much. Let's not forget the best possible
:35:56. > :36:00.outcome of this budget will be that for the next couple of years things
:36:01. > :36:04.look no worse than they did a year ago and in four years out they will
:36:05. > :36:08.still look a bit worse, and in addition Philip Hammond did increase
:36:09. > :36:13.his spending plans in November. However good the numbers look in a
:36:14. > :36:19.couple of days' time, we will still be borrowing at least 20 billion
:36:20. > :36:26.more by 2020 than we were forecasting a year ago. Still quite
:36:27. > :36:32.constrained. George Osborne wanted to get us to budget surplus by 2019.
:36:33. > :36:37.That has gone. Philip Hammond is quite happy with a big deficit and
:36:38. > :36:42.is not interested in that. But what he is thinking to a large extent, as
:36:43. > :36:47.you have made clear, there is a lot of uncertainty about the economic
:36:48. > :36:51.reaction over the next three or four years. He says he wants some
:36:52. > :36:56.headroom. If things go wrong, I do not want to announce more spending
:36:57. > :36:59.cuts or more tax rises to keep the deficit down. I want to say things
:37:00. > :37:05.have gone wrong for now and we will borrow. And I have got some money in
:37:06. > :37:11.the kitty. He will not spend a lot of it now. I understand the
:37:12. > :37:16.Chancellor is worried about the erosion of the tax base and it is
:37:17. > :37:22.hard to put VAT up by more than 20%, millions have been taken out of
:37:23. > :37:27.income tax, only 46% of people pay income tax, fuel duty is frozen for
:37:28. > :37:30.ever, corporation tax has been cut, the growth in self-employed has
:37:31. > :37:36.reduced revenues, is that a real concern? These are all worries for
:37:37. > :37:41.him. We have as you said in the introduction to this, got a tax
:37:42. > :37:46.burden which is rising very gradually, but it is rising to its
:37:47. > :37:50.highest level since the mid-19 80s, but is not doing it through
:37:51. > :37:54.straightforward increases to income tax. Lots of bits of pieces of
:37:55. > :38:00.insurance premium tax is here and the apprenticeship levied there, and
:38:01. > :38:05.that is higher personal allowance of income tax and a freeze fuel duty,
:38:06. > :38:09.but at some point we will have to look at the tax system as a whole
:38:10. > :38:17.and ask if we can carry on like this. We will have to start increase
:38:18. > :38:24.fuel duties again, or look to those big but unpopular taxes to really
:38:25. > :38:30.keep that money coming in to keep the challenges we will have over the
:38:31. > :38:35.next 30 years. He is going to set up a commission on social care. He has
:38:36. > :38:36.had quite a few commissions on social care. Thank you for being
:38:37. > :38:38.with us. It's just gone 11.35,
:38:39. > :38:40.you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers
:38:41. > :38:43.in Scotland who leave us now Coming up here in twenty
:38:44. > :38:52.minutes, the Week Ahead. Hello and a warm welcome
:38:53. > :38:55.to your local part of the show. This week: after the Copeland
:38:56. > :38:57.defeat: we look at other Labour-held seats in the north
:38:58. > :39:00.which may be vulnerable.. Labour-held seats in the north
:39:01. > :39:10.which may be vulnerable. And is reform of the business
:39:11. > :39:12.rates the good news that our local high streets
:39:13. > :39:14.so desperately need? Talking about that,
:39:15. > :39:17.and the rest of the week's news are two Teesside MPs,
:39:18. > :39:25.international development Minister and Stockton South Conservative,
:39:26. > :39:27.James Wharton, and Labour MP But let's start with
:39:28. > :39:30.Nissan's Sunderland plant and what sort of a future it might
:39:31. > :39:33.have after Brexit. The Government says they're
:39:34. > :39:34.optimistic they can negotiate the right deal to keep jobs
:39:35. > :39:37.and investment on Wearside. But the company's vice president
:39:38. > :39:40.Colin Lawther struck a more cautious note when he gave evidence to MPs
:39:41. > :39:42.on the International Trade So we would have to look
:39:43. > :39:46.at the degrees of change and adjust our business to take
:39:47. > :39:58.into account whatever this Should what Nissan said this week to
:39:59. > :40:01.that committee worry us, or is this just a business being honest about
:40:02. > :40:06.the fact that it cannot predict every aspect of the future? There is
:40:07. > :40:09.always some degree of uncertainty business business tries to mitigate
:40:10. > :40:13.those risks as much as possible but what he was saying there is to be
:40:14. > :40:17.concerning. The Prime Minister has said that no deal is better than a
:40:18. > :40:20.bad deal but actually when it comes to Nissan and the automotive
:40:21. > :40:37.industry and manufacturing in general, if we don't have a deal we
:40:38. > :40:41.revert to WTO rules which means impact on exports will be having a
:40:42. > :40:44.10% tariff slapped upon the man given that Nissan are dealing with
:40:45. > :40:46.volume of cars with wafer thin coffee market -- that wafer thin
:40:47. > :40:48.profit margins that could wipe out the profit they have and they would
:40:49. > :40:50.then reconsider investing in Sunderland which is concerning for
:40:51. > :40:53.our entire manufacturing sector. That does seem concerning, this was
:40:54. > :40:55.an issue that we were told that post-referendum the government have
:40:56. > :40:58.it nailed on and now it seems they will be closely watching what you
:40:59. > :41:03.do, and if you don't deliver what they expect, uncertainty will
:41:04. > :41:07.continue. Nissan would rightly or wrongly always say they continually
:41:08. > :41:11.review the environment they operate in the reason they are so successful
:41:12. > :41:14.in Sunderland is because it is so effective and productive and has
:41:15. > :41:18.such a good workforce that won't go away. We need to ensure we get the
:41:19. > :41:22.best deal on the right deal for the UK but we also need to respect there
:41:23. > :41:26.has been a referendum less than one away and the British people sent a
:41:27. > :41:29.very clear message with the largest vote for anything ever that they
:41:30. > :41:33.want to leave the European Union and the government is now delivering on
:41:34. > :41:36.it and it must deliver on that and it doesn't mean we are conscious of
:41:37. > :41:40.the fact that we want to get the best possible deal. Voters in
:41:41. > :41:46.Sunderland who voted Brexit will not thank you if Nissan starts shedding
:41:47. > :41:48.jobs. The point is that the competitiveness disappears if you
:41:49. > :41:53.face tariffs and the Prime Minister has been quite clear, as he says,
:41:54. > :41:58.that no deal is better than a bad deal. Actually tariffs would work
:41:59. > :42:03.two ways. You would see the same tariff if it apply to us, applying
:42:04. > :42:10.on German cars, French or Italian cars. That doesn't help Nissan! Bear
:42:11. > :42:13.market in the UK might increase significantly. It might be that as
:42:14. > :42:17.part of the deal this is all addressed which is the situation we
:42:18. > :42:24.want to find ourselves in. It is not a simple black or white thing. They
:42:25. > :42:29.would have to pay any tariff for goods that they sell here and what
:42:30. > :42:33.they sell there and it could change the market altogether. Nissan has
:42:34. > :42:36.shown its commitment already, as James Wharton says it is an
:42:37. > :42:40.incredibly successful business and it is unrealistic to think that they
:42:41. > :42:45.would just shut up shop and cut back on investment purely because of some
:42:46. > :42:49.of these factors that are on the margins. They are here to make money
:42:50. > :42:52.and James is absolutely right, it is a productive plant and they have
:42:53. > :42:54.invested heavily in a fantastic workforce. It is one of the most
:42:55. > :43:12.productive plants anywhere in Europe but if they can't make money because
:43:13. > :43:14.of 10% tariffs being slapped upon the man they don't have proper
:43:15. > :43:16.access to the single market because, don't forget, 80% of Nissan products
:43:17. > :43:18.are exported into the European single market, they will re-evaluate
:43:19. > :43:20.future investment. Isn't it swings and roundabouts with tariffs? No,
:43:21. > :43:23.you would get a boost from sterling devaluation exporting out, but a lot
:43:24. > :43:26.of our supply chain we have to import and we would get a double
:43:27. > :43:32.whammy when it comes to that. It is concerning for manufacturing. We
:43:33. > :43:33.have to leave it there. We buy a lot more from Europe than we sell to
:43:34. > :43:35.them. Now the aftershocks of Labour's
:43:36. > :43:37.defeat at the Copeland by-election continue,
:43:38. > :43:38.not least with debate over But where does it leave
:43:39. > :43:42.the party in the North? Labour needs to win a series
:43:43. > :43:46.of target seats to secure any But rather than make gains,
:43:47. > :43:49.the experience of Copeland suggests the party could struggle to hold
:43:50. > :43:52.onto some of those For centuries it has been a bastion
:43:53. > :43:58.of religious authority, home to Auckland Castle,
:43:59. > :44:01.the ancient seat of the Bishop of Durham, and when it comes
:44:02. > :44:03.to its politics too, this town has been
:44:04. > :44:07.a place of tradition. Bishop Auckland has had a Labour
:44:08. > :44:09.MPs since the 1930s, with its mining and industrial
:44:10. > :44:12.history, that's no surprise, but after the party was booted out
:44:13. > :44:14.of another Northern stronghold, at Copeland, could a seat
:44:15. > :44:16.like this be next? Labour's defeat in West Cumbria
:44:17. > :44:21.was preceded by rumbles of voter discontent with Jeremy Corbyn,
:44:22. > :44:26.and here in County Durham it wasn't Jeremy Corbyn, in my opinion,
:44:27. > :44:36.I think, comes across as airy fairy and I honestly don't believe
:44:37. > :44:38.that he gets what it's He doesn't come across as too posh
:44:39. > :44:46.or upper class, he just... Living in this area,
:44:47. > :44:56.were always been Labour, but... Well, as I say, I don't think
:44:57. > :45:07.he's much of a leader. Do think this area
:45:08. > :45:09.could go Conservative? I'm not too sure about that
:45:10. > :45:12.but I think maybe Labour might have Labour's next challenge
:45:13. > :45:16.here is to defend its council This Jeremy Corbyn supporter
:45:17. > :45:19.insists the anti-austerity We have to have policies which will
:45:20. > :45:29.break the cycle of poverty, which will break austerity and get
:45:30. > :45:33.us to a point where we are doing things that make
:45:34. > :45:37.this country function. Is Jeremy Corbyn a vote
:45:38. > :45:40.winner or a vote loser The area's MP is more
:45:41. > :45:49.critical of her leader. I think what Jeremy could do a bit
:45:50. > :45:52.more effectively is be pro-industry and business
:45:53. > :45:58.and the productive economy. That's what we are doing locally
:45:59. > :46:03.in Durham, in our area, and I think that's what he needs
:46:04. > :46:06.to do at a national level. If Copeland's nearly 7% swing
:46:07. > :46:10.from Labour to Conservative happened more widely it would be enough
:46:11. > :46:16.to unseat Labour in Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland,
:46:17. > :46:20.Darlington, Hartlepool is also a Labour
:46:21. > :46:23.marginal, although it has There was great fear before
:46:24. > :46:27.and after the 2015 General Election in Labour circles that Ukip
:46:28. > :46:30.would eat into its vote, but arguably what we've seen
:46:31. > :46:33.in the last two by-elections and a general sense of politics
:46:34. > :46:35.is that Labour enemy is the enemy it's always been,
:46:36. > :46:39.the Conservative Party. Local Tories say the Prime
:46:40. > :46:42.Minister's County Durham connections I think Labour face more of a threat
:46:43. > :46:48.from the Conservatives under Theresa May because she is from
:46:49. > :46:50.a more ordinary background, she has spent time up here,
:46:51. > :46:53.she lived up here for a couple of years when she was a candidate
:46:54. > :46:56.in North West Durham. She knows her way around Consett
:46:57. > :47:01.and that general area. It is an region famous
:47:02. > :47:03.for its deep allegiances, but increasingly buffeted
:47:04. > :47:20.by changing political weather. Yours is a vulnerable seat, albeit
:47:21. > :47:23.it is Ukip in second place, not the Conservatives, is it fair to say
:47:24. > :47:27.that you and a handful of other Labour MPs in this region will be
:47:28. > :47:30.worried by what happened in Copeland? I don't think you can put
:47:31. > :47:33.a gloss on Copeland, you would expect midterm into Parliament when
:47:34. > :47:37.we want to get into government that we should be at least retaining
:47:38. > :47:41.these kind of seats, if not massively increasing our majority,
:47:42. > :47:52.so of course it is a concern. We need to have a good and hard look at
:47:53. > :47:54.what happened, the reasons for this, and make sure ultimately that we
:47:55. > :47:57.offer a manifesto and some policies that the voters of the Northeast can
:47:58. > :47:59.really get attracted to. We will come back to solutions in a moment
:48:00. > :48:03.and the Conservatives might be getting excited by this result.
:48:04. > :48:07.By-elections are peculiar and this was a particularly peculiar one
:48:08. > :48:10.because of the nuclear industry being invulnerable because of what
:48:11. > :48:14.Jeremy Corbyn said in the past. You are not going to sweep across the
:48:15. > :48:19.North, are you? I would not disagree with that but you would expect the
:48:20. > :48:22.opposition party to do very well in a by-election against a parliament
:48:23. > :48:26.that has been in power for seven years. When I look across the
:48:27. > :48:28.north-east there are a number of seats in places like Bishop Auckland
:48:29. > :48:31.the Conservatives could be the Conservatives could be
:48:32. > :48:35.successful in the next election. There are three years to go but is
:48:36. > :48:44.not just Copeland, there was a by-election this week with a big
:48:45. > :48:49.swing to the Conservatives and ten and a half percent swing in my
:48:50. > :48:53.are not isolated. The problem is are not isolated. The problem is
:48:54. > :48:56.Jeremy Corbyn, you have to get rid of him. It is great for my party and
:48:57. > :49:02.excited for the Conservatives in this region but it is bad for
:49:03. > :49:06.democracy because he is not an effective Leader of the Opposition.
:49:07. > :49:10.It is important for the country. We need a better leader than we have
:49:11. > :49:13.now. One of the problems the electorate would have if we went
:49:14. > :49:16.into another leadership contest is that we'll we are inward looking and
:49:17. > :49:20.we are not thinking about the voters and I think that would be deeply
:49:21. > :49:24.damaging for democracy as one of the Labour Party. We need to be outward
:49:25. > :49:28.looking. You had some of the views of the people in Bishop Auckland, it
:49:29. > :49:34.wasn't hard to find Labour voters with negative views your leader. He
:49:35. > :49:37.may not be the cause of all of your party 's ills but he isn't the
:49:38. > :49:41.solution, Izzy? It is true to say that a leader provides a town and
:49:42. > :49:47.leadership and it is very important leadership and it is very important
:49:48. > :49:50.to it at the top. Is that happening at the moment? I don't think you can
:49:51. > :49:55.blame completely Jeremy Corbyn. We need to look at what else is going
:49:56. > :49:59.on. It is policies that can really attract and motivate people of the
:50:00. > :50:03.north-east to go out and vote. Have you been happy of the response of
:50:04. > :50:06.Jeremy Corbyn under the people in the leadership team since the
:50:07. > :50:08.by-election? Are they taking the lessons on board? I haven't seen any
:50:09. > :50:23.evidence of that, if I'm honest I haven't seen them talk
:50:24. > :50:26.about a postmortem in terms of what happens. Whether it is happening at
:50:27. > :50:29.a level of which I am not invited, I don't know, but I think we do as a
:50:30. > :50:31.party... This is not good enough, let's be brutally honest. The
:50:32. > :50:33.Copeland result, and I am not blaming the staff because laboured
:50:34. > :50:36.altering the by-election and took two months out of their lives and
:50:37. > :50:40.worked incredibly hard, all credit to their professionalism but it is a
:50:41. > :50:44.case of as politicians raising our game. There was an important point
:50:45. > :50:48.which is not just Jeremy Corbyn, identity is up to the job of leading
:50:49. > :50:53.the Labour Party and the opposition, he is a disaster, but there is a
:50:54. > :50:56.bigger problem underlying out. In the EU referendum every Labour MP in
:50:57. > :51:04.Teesside fought to remain and every vote taken constituency in Teesside
:51:05. > :51:08.voted to leave. That is divisive. Most Labour voters still voted
:51:09. > :51:11.remain. The conservative roots in this region are pretty shallow in
:51:12. > :51:14.some places still. You need to actually win a seat in the County
:51:15. > :51:20.Council elections in Durham in places like that and the Tees Valley
:51:21. > :51:24.Nehra H, to prove the Conservatives are... It would be great to win the
:51:25. > :51:29.Tees Valley Mayor and that would be a shock result but we have a great
:51:30. > :51:32.candidate with every chance. These are the things that when I stood in
:51:33. > :51:37.me, I had been predicted to lose my me, I had been predicted to lose my
:51:38. > :51:41.seat twice by the BBC in both elections I have fought and the BBC
:51:42. > :51:44.has every time said it. The BBC in this region often doesn't quite
:51:45. > :51:49.recognise what is happening but you are an exception! The Labour Party
:51:50. > :51:52.establishment is becoming increasingly detached from the
:51:53. > :51:56.people who have traditionally supported it. Look at Harry Jones
:51:57. > :52:01.has just answered that, in terms of his own political career. The
:52:02. > :52:04.political cycle moves quickly so the notion that the Conservatives can
:52:05. > :52:10.get complacent and arrogant is completely the wrong approach. If we
:52:11. > :52:13.challenge and we have those policies Twenty20 is all to play for. There
:52:14. > :52:14.is plenty of time still to discuss all of that before then.
:52:15. > :52:16.While the recriminations over Labour's defeat continued,
:52:17. > :52:19.the new Conservative MP for Copeland took her seat in the
:52:20. > :52:22.Here's that and the rest of the stories making the news
:52:23. > :52:31.Durham Tees Valley Airport should be brought back into public ownership,
:52:32. > :52:35.so says Ben Houchen, the Conservative candidate to be
:52:36. > :52:40.It currently 89% owned by Peel Airports, with five councils
:52:41. > :52:44.Rival candidates say the Tory plan is unworkable.
:52:45. > :52:47.MPs and unions have expressed their concern after Walker's crisps
:52:48. > :52:49.announced plans to shut its Peterlee factory with the loss
:52:50. > :52:54.Easington MP Graham Morris called it a bitter blow.
:52:55. > :52:58.The new Conservative MP for Copeland, Trudy Harrison has
:52:59. > :53:00.been sworn into the Commons after winning the seat from Labour
:53:01. > :53:07.I swear by Almighty God that I will be faithful
:53:08. > :53:11.and bear true allegiance to Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth,
:53:12. > :53:18.her heirs and successors, according to law, so help me God.
:53:19. > :53:21.And finally Sunderland has put its council tax up by nearly 5%
:53:22. > :53:36.and announced ?46 million of new savings.
:53:37. > :53:44.Let us talk about the Tees Valley Airport and your Conservative
:53:45. > :53:49.candidate. This is a conservative suggestion of a private business
:53:50. > :53:53.being taken into public hands. You prepared to back this? I think it is
:53:54. > :53:57.great that he has put this on the agenda, it is front and square of
:53:58. > :54:01.the mayoral election. Politicians in Teesside have been trying to ignore
:54:02. > :54:04.the airport for years and I know because I fought a lonely battle
:54:05. > :54:07.myself in trying to get it higher up the agenda and concerns about its
:54:08. > :54:11.head, but it is clear that what has happened in recent years has not
:54:12. > :54:15.been working. It is clear that something needs to change. There are
:54:16. > :54:18.concerns about the owner, their management has not been an
:54:19. > :54:23.unmitigated success so here is a plan to get a grip and do something
:54:24. > :54:27.about it and save our airport so Ben Houchen deserves credit for it and I
:54:28. > :54:35.will support him. There are other candidates! Loads of public money
:54:36. > :54:37.then goes to the private sector under this plan and you are left
:54:38. > :54:41.trying to revive an airport that is on its last legs, let's be honest.
:54:42. > :54:46.Is that a responsible? Of labour were suggesting that you would be
:54:47. > :54:51.all over it? I think we would be supporting it. Where will you get
:54:52. > :54:56.the money from two revive the airport and get lots of hair
:54:57. > :55:00.operators? It is currently a loss-making airport and then I will
:55:01. > :55:04.get additional money into Teesside. There was a big opportunity to make
:55:05. > :55:07.the airport a success. As recently as 2007 over one million passengers
:55:08. > :55:11.a year were going through it and it has been allowed to decline, under
:55:12. > :55:14.the watch of a company that currently has it, for whatever
:55:15. > :55:19.reason, and it is about something was done we should put it back on
:55:20. > :55:23.the agenda. It is a bold action to solve a problem. It is ill thought
:55:24. > :55:29.through an absolutely appalling. The Labour Party nomination for the Tees
:55:30. > :55:34.Valley Mayor is absolutely insane right thing in saying this will not
:55:35. > :55:37.solve the problem. If anything, council tax payers of the local area
:55:38. > :55:41.will have to bail it out even more figures ahead. It is losing ?2
:55:42. > :55:45.million a year at the moment is losing market share to the likes of
:55:46. > :55:51.Newcastle Airport so there needs to be a plan, that is true, but I don't
:55:52. > :55:55.think that works. What is the alternative? As the Minister for the
:55:56. > :56:07.Northern Powerhouse, you said this was a priority No what did you do
:56:08. > :56:10.about this? We stopped it going under a few years ago but is very
:56:11. > :56:13.difficult to make a private ownership country do what you want
:56:14. > :56:15.to do with it. That is the point. It will not affect council tax payers
:56:16. > :56:18.because the money doesn't come from them but you need a good long-term
:56:19. > :56:20.strategy in place. And every engagement I had with the company
:56:21. > :56:23.that owned it the ultimate answer was that they were in charge, they
:56:24. > :56:29.wouldn't even rename it Teesside airport despite a huge public demand
:56:30. > :56:33.for that. That seems to be the other way round from the usual argument
:56:34. > :56:37.Now, there's been howls of outrage about business rates recently,
:56:38. > :56:41.They say a new property valuation, the first for seven years,
:56:42. > :56:43.will push up business rates and hit small traders.
:56:44. > :56:46.But here in the North it looks like a slightly different story.
:56:47. > :56:47.Government figures suggest business rates will fall
:56:48. > :56:52.So is it a welcome shot in the arm for our high streets,
:56:53. > :56:54.or could there be a sting in the tail?
:56:55. > :56:59.Julie owns this restaurant and cafe in Whitley Bay on Tyneside
:57:00. > :57:02.and she thinks it is about to be given a big boost,
:57:03. > :57:05.We were paying well over ?1,000 a month for our business rates
:57:06. > :57:08.which was actually working out more than our rent, so it
:57:09. > :57:19.It was our biggest bill, and it's now coming in around
:57:20. > :57:22.about ?350 a month which is just so much more manageable.
:57:23. > :57:26.Another winner is this soft play and cafe also in Whitley Bay.
:57:27. > :57:28.Leanne has just taken over and may be about to
:57:29. > :57:33.What I'm paying now is ?350 a month in what I should be paid
:57:34. > :57:36.when the new rates come in is zero, nothing, mine should
:57:37. > :57:39.It will make a massive difference as being a small, new business,
:57:40. > :57:44.the rates I'm paying at the moment are very, very steep.
:57:45. > :57:47.Businesses like Leanne's and Julie's are not likely to be the only ones
:57:48. > :57:53.The government estimates business rate will go down
:57:54. > :57:55.across the North East by 11%, due to revaluation.
:57:56. > :57:59.In the retail sector the estimated overall drop in the region of 16%.
:58:00. > :58:08.For industry bills could reduce by 9%, and more firms
:58:09. > :58:14.But not everyone is a winner and many dispute those
:58:15. > :58:18.government estimates, and one place trying to fillet
:58:19. > :58:23.surviving and thriving on the high street after more than 100 years.
:58:24. > :58:25.Its owner is not convinced it will get to keep
:58:26. > :58:30.The valuation is going to go up just near-on ?1,000
:58:31. > :58:35.so but with having no notification, and it's due to come
:58:36. > :58:37.into effect on April 1st, we don't know where we are,
:58:38. > :58:40.where we stand, how much extra we are going to have to pay.
:58:41. > :58:43.Uncertainty like that has led some to call for business rates
:58:44. > :58:46.in their current form to be given the chop, even if firms
:58:47. > :58:49.in the North East do well from the valuation this time.
:58:50. > :58:52.Every time there's a change and it creates some winners,
:58:53. > :58:59.it also creates losers because government determines
:59:00. > :59:02.in advance how much money it wants to make out of this tax and then
:59:03. > :59:04.just divides up which individual businesses are going
:59:05. > :59:09.There's no other tax that works in that same way and it doesn't bear
:59:10. > :59:11.any relation to businesses' ability to pay.
:59:12. > :59:13.Under pressure from firms that are losing out,
:59:14. > :59:17.the government is promising to offer extra help, but those who have done
:59:18. > :59:28.well are hoping the whole process won't be thrown into reverse.
:59:29. > :59:34.Iain, this looks like good news for the region, doesn't it? It is good
:59:35. > :59:39.in many respects that businesses generally in the north will pay less
:59:40. > :59:43.however, as Ross Smith said from the Northeast Chambers of commerce, this
:59:44. > :59:48.is a bad tax that actually dis- incentivise is investment and
:59:49. > :59:54.innovation. We are manufacturing sector. Businesses have to pay tax
:59:55. > :59:58.they? In terms of business rates what is the purpose of it and how
:59:59. > :00:01.will it incentivise businesses to invest in the latest plant and
:00:02. > :00:05.machinery to make them more competitive? On the business select
:00:06. > :00:07.committee we have just read juiced a support of industrial strategy and
:00:08. > :00:10.called for a thorough review of business rates because it is
:00:11. > :00:13.penalising those firms, particularly penalising those firms, particularly
:00:14. > :00:21.in the manufacturing sector, who want to invest in new kit. Their tax
:00:22. > :00:24.bill cannot be good for our ongoing competitiveness. Yourself and
:00:25. > :00:29.colleagues are many completely about this but isn't it redistribution of
:00:30. > :00:32.income? There was good news across the Northeast and that is welcome
:00:33. > :00:36.but with any change there are winners and losers and there are
:00:37. > :00:39.companies and small businesses that will be negatively affected, just as
:00:40. > :00:43.there are unfortunately in our region, many more. There is an
:00:44. > :00:47.appeals process and the valuation office they can go through and we
:00:48. > :00:51.need to see where it will get to. Is that enough? There was a suggestion
:00:52. > :00:59.of more measures? We don't know yet. We need to know what the impact is
:01:00. > :01:03.under the stand in its totality. Many businesses still not everyone
:01:04. > :01:06.is our winner but large numbers are and it is good for our region and a
:01:07. > :01:10.welcome shift but we have to look at those who are not winning and not
:01:11. > :01:14.doing better as a result make sure they get appropriate support.
:01:15. > :01:18.Doesn't the system just need overhauling? There is an argument
:01:19. > :01:23.all taxes have up-and-down site and all taxes have up-and-down site and
:01:24. > :01:30.the situation that Iain alluded to is one that has compelling list to
:01:31. > :01:34.it. We have two boost manufacturing and we need the link with local
:01:35. > :01:38.government finance, government policy is to move to 100% of the
:01:39. > :01:41.tension of business rates from local authorities, but if we see a drop in
:01:42. > :01:42.the north-east it means local councils here will have even worse
:01:43. > :01:42.figures. And that's about it
:01:43. > :01:44.from us for this week. We're back same time,
:01:45. > :01:49.same place next Sunday need Crossrail as well. We will be
:01:50. > :01:51.poring over the entrails of the budget next week. Thank you very
:01:52. > :01:57.much indeed. So the Brexit Bill is back in
:01:58. > :02:02.the Lords next week and the Lib Dems They've ordered pizza and camp beds
:02:03. > :02:05.to encourage their peers to keep talking all night,
:02:06. > :02:08.only to be told by the Lord's authorities that their plans fall
:02:09. > :02:21.foul of health and safety laws. Laws that they probably voted for.
:02:22. > :02:24.What did you make of David Liddington's remarks on the Lords
:02:25. > :02:29.amendments, particularly not just the one on EU nationals, but on what
:02:30. > :02:36.is regarded as a meaningful vote at the end of the process? Let's be
:02:37. > :02:39.clear, as ministers like to say, the meaningful vote vote is by far the
:02:40. > :02:46.biggest thing that will happen in Parliament. It puts EU citizens into
:02:47. > :02:52.a tiny corner. It will decide not just who is going to have the final
:02:53. > :02:57.say on this, but who the EU is negotiating with. Is it directly
:02:58. > :03:00.with Theresa May or is it with Parliament? Who will decide the
:03:01. > :03:08.shape of Brexit, Parliament or Theresa May? The Lords amendment is
:03:09. > :03:12.just the first chapter. They have voiced Theresa May to give them a
:03:13. > :03:16.veto on everything she does, and there is a possible chance in the
:03:17. > :03:24.Commons could uphold this amendment. The meaningful vote amendment? The
:03:25. > :03:28.meaningful vote amendment. But is it a meaningful vote if the choice is
:03:29. > :03:35.to either back the deal or crash out of the deal? That is what the remain
:03:36. > :03:40.supporting MPs or hardline people who want to remain fear. What they
:03:41. > :03:46.want is the power to be able to send Theresa May back to the negotiating
:03:47. > :03:50.table. Why is that anathema to many Brexit supporters? They believed it
:03:51. > :03:55.would crucially and critically undermine Theresa May's negotiating
:03:56. > :03:59.hand and also create a long period of uncertainty for business. There
:04:00. > :04:04.is already great uncertainty and this could extend it. The
:04:05. > :04:10.government's position is in there was a proper, meaningful vote which
:04:11. > :04:15.Parliament could reject what was on offer, that would be an incentive to
:04:16. > :04:20.the EU to give us a bad deal? I think that is the fear. If you are
:04:21. > :04:23.saying to the people you are negotiating with that that is
:04:24. > :04:28.another authority and Theresa May will have to go back and have all of
:04:29. > :04:32.this approved, I think it would have a very significant undermining
:04:33. > :04:38.effect on her negotiating hand. Things change from day to day. We
:04:39. > :04:44.are talking about 2019 and 2018 at the earliest, but if the government
:04:45. > :04:52.lost a vote on the Brexit deal, would he not have to call in someone
:04:53. > :04:57.else? That is why the vote will be meaningful even if the amendment on
:04:58. > :05:03.this meaningful vote will be lost. You cannot do a deal on something as
:05:04. > :05:09.historic as Brexit and have Parliament against you. So, whatever
:05:10. > :05:16.form this vote takes, whenever it happens, it will be hugely
:05:17. > :05:21.meaningful. Whatever label that is given and if she lost it she would
:05:22. > :05:27.call a general election. She could not impose it. To call a general
:05:28. > :05:31.election now you need a majority of MPs which she will not have, so
:05:32. > :05:35.maybe she will not get her election after all. It would be very unlike
:05:36. > :05:39.Labour not to vote for an election. It would be very unlike Labour not
:05:40. > :05:41.to vote for an election. The elections to Stormont have given
:05:42. > :05:45.a boost to the republicans and put the long term status
:05:46. > :05:47.of Northern Ireland in some doubt. Sinn Fein's leader Gerry Adams
:05:48. > :05:49.spoke to reporters Yesterday was in many,
:05:50. > :05:55.many ways a watershed election, and we have just started a process
:05:56. > :05:58.of reflecting what it all means, but clearly the union's majority
:05:59. > :06:14.in the Assembly has been ended, and the notion of a permanent
:06:15. > :06:27.or a perpetual unionist majority Is he right? Is this a watershed?
:06:28. > :06:32.The nationalist vote in the assembly will now come to 39 and the
:06:33. > :06:37.Unionists 38. It is only one member, but it is significant. This is a
:06:38. > :06:41.very serious moment and because of everything else going on with Donald
:06:42. > :06:45.Trump and Brexit it is taking a while for people here to realise
:06:46. > :06:51.just how significant this is. Talking to someone who only recently
:06:52. > :06:54.left a significant role in Northern Ireland politics last night, they
:06:55. > :06:58.said they were very worried about what this means. It is likely there
:06:59. > :07:03.will be a call for some kind of international figure to chair the
:07:04. > :07:07.talks to try and see if there is a way of everybody working together.
:07:08. > :07:12.All sides will probably try to extract more money from the
:07:13. > :07:17.Treasury, but it is a very dangerous moment. Should we regard Michelle
:07:18. > :07:21.O'Neill, who has replaced Mr McGuinness as the leader, it is she
:07:22. > :07:29.the First Minister death probably not quite. An interesting thought.
:07:30. > :07:35.Indeed, the daughter of an IRA man, a fascinating concept in itself. But
:07:36. > :07:40.there are are still a large amount of MLAs who will not give Sinn Fein
:07:41. > :07:44.what they need. But what effect does this have on the legacy of the
:07:45. > :07:49.prosecutions and the great witchhunts which the British
:07:50. > :07:56.Government has vowed to end. There is a majority left on the Stormont
:07:57. > :07:59.assembly to end those. But some would keep them going for time
:08:00. > :08:08.continuing, which is a headache for Theresa May. You have now got 27
:08:09. > :08:12.Sinn Fein members, 28 DUP, then the SDLP bumps up the numbers a little
:08:13. > :08:17.bit. You have got the British Government transfixed with Brexit
:08:18. > :08:22.which has huge implications for the border between North and South in
:08:23. > :08:27.Ireland, and the Irish government is pretty wavering as well and if there
:08:28. > :08:31.is an election there, Sinn Fein could do well in the Dublin
:08:32. > :08:36.parliament as well. There are a lot of moving pieces. There are and
:08:37. > :08:40.there is a danger that we look at everything through the prism of
:08:41. > :08:46.Brexit, but I found Friday and this weekend fascinating. Theresa May and
:08:47. > :08:50.Scotland were Nicola Sturgeon is framing Brexit entirely through an
:08:51. > :08:55.argument to have a second referendum on independence which she wants to
:08:56. > :09:02.hold it she possibly can. And the Irish situation with the prospect of
:09:03. > :09:09.a hard border with Northern Ireland voting majority to remain, quite a
:09:10. > :09:16.substantial majority, again a few of the instability at the moment. That
:09:17. > :09:20.We will be keeping an eye on it for sure.
:09:21. > :09:22.Yesterday, US President Donald Trump tweeted allegations
:09:23. > :09:24.that his predecessor, Barack Obama, had ordered
:09:25. > :09:27.his phones to be tapped during the election campaign.
:09:28. > :09:30."Terrible!", Trump wrote, "Just found out that Obama
:09:31. > :09:33.had my "wires tapped" in Trump Tower just before the victory.
:09:34. > :09:47.I'm not quite sure what McCarthyism that is.
:09:48. > :09:49.He followed up with a series of tweets comparing it to Watergate.
:09:50. > :09:56."How low has President Obama gone to tap my phones during the very
:09:57. > :10:09.The sacred election process, I think at one stage he said it was a dodgy
:10:10. > :10:10.election process, but now it is sacred.
:10:11. > :10:23.You are frightened to go to bed at night, you do not know what you are
:10:24. > :10:28.going to wake up to. Completely uncharted territory here. Little
:10:29. > :10:31.more than a month ago at the inauguration they were making the
:10:32. > :10:38.veneer of small talk and politely shaking hands. He saw Barack Obama
:10:39. > :10:45.and Michelle off on the helicopter. You do not know what is coming next.
:10:46. > :10:50.Is there a scintilla of evidence to back up Donald Trump's claims? Yes,
:10:51. > :10:54.there is, although he is very muddled about it all. I will
:10:55. > :11:07.explain. Remember what happened to Mike Flynn, talking to the Russian
:11:08. > :11:12.and Ambassador will stop they were listening. Barack Obama does not
:11:13. > :11:16.sign of warrants, but somebody else did. So why on earth would you not
:11:17. > :11:24.want to listen to the president elect himself in case he might also
:11:25. > :11:28.be breaking the law. Does that sound to you like convincing evidence or
:11:29. > :11:33.just a supposition? I think Tom should go and work for him, that is
:11:34. > :11:38.the most credible interpretation I have heard for a long time. Start
:11:39. > :11:43.tweeting the case for the tweet. What is interesting about this is my
:11:44. > :11:48.theory is he does not really like the idea of being a president. That
:11:49. > :11:54.wild press conference he gave a couple of weeks ago there was one ad
:11:55. > :11:59.lib that did not get repeated which was, I suppose I am a politician
:12:00. > :12:03.now, as if he was humiliated at the idea of being a president. He likes
:12:04. > :12:08.being the businessman with a swagger tweeting around the clock. And
:12:09. > :12:13.campaigning again. He keeps going to what looked like campaign rallies. I
:12:14. > :12:17.disagree with you about him not liking being president. I think he
:12:18. > :12:22.loves the idea of being the president, but the reality is so
:12:23. > :12:25.frustrating on every level, finding he does not have unlimited room for
:12:26. > :12:29.manoeuvre and so many things have been put in place to stop them doing
:12:30. > :12:33.things he would do in the business environment. We have had two more
:12:34. > :12:38.tweets from him this morning, I guess when he woke up. Who was it
:12:39. > :12:41.who secretly said to the Russian president, tell Vladimir that after
:12:42. > :12:50.the election I will have more flexibility? Who was that? Possibly
:12:51. > :12:54.Hillary Clinton. Is it true the Democratic National committee would
:12:55. > :12:58.not allow the FBI access to check server or other equipment after
:12:59. > :13:03.learning it was hacked? Can that be possible? This was all an issue in
:13:04. > :13:08.the campaign. He is now a president. Shall I point out the flaw in Tom's
:13:09. > :13:11.theory. They were not bugging Michael Flynn's phone, it was the
:13:12. > :13:21.Russian Ambassador's telephone they were barking. Mr Neil, I would never
:13:22. > :13:25.contradict you on this programme. But if you suspect there was
:13:26. > :13:32.criminal activity going on, as there was by Michael Flynn, why would you
:13:33. > :13:37.not want to put on a tap? I don't know. That is it for today.
:13:38. > :13:40.I'll be back next week here on BBC One at 11am as usual.
:13:41. > :13:43.The Daily Politics is back tomorrow at midday on BBC Two.
:13:44. > :13:51.But remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.