:00:35. > :00:38.It's Sunday Morning and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:39. > :00:41.The Government has insisted that Gibraltar will not be bargained
:00:42. > :00:46.But the territory's chief minister says the EU's proposal
:00:47. > :00:51.After a momentous week, Britain's journey out
:00:52. > :00:55.Can the Prime Minister satisfy her critics at home
:00:56. > :01:01.We speak to the former Conservative leader, Michael Howard.
:01:02. > :01:03.And we have the lowdown on next month's local elections -
:01:04. > :01:08.what exactly is up for grabs, who's going up and who's going down?
:01:09. > :01:11.Here, are northeast manufacturing jobs at risk from Brexit?
:01:12. > :01:13.And it's the Government's big idea for benefits,
:01:14. > :01:17.but these women say universal credits push them into debt.
:01:18. > :01:19.changing their minds. MPs from opposing sides give the view from
:01:20. > :01:27.there constituencies. And with me, as always,
:01:28. > :01:30.the best and the brightest political panel in the business -
:01:31. > :01:32.Steve Richards, Isabel Oakeshott and Tom Newton Dunn who'll be
:01:33. > :01:37.tweeting throughout the programme. For the people of Gibraltar, Clause
:01:38. > :01:40.22 of the EU's draft negotiating guidelines came as something
:01:41. > :01:42.of a shock. The guidelines propose
:01:43. > :01:48.that the Government in Spain be given a veto over any future trade
:01:49. > :01:51.deal as it applies to The UK Government has reacted
:01:52. > :01:56.strongly, saying Gibraltar will not be bargained away
:01:57. > :01:58.in the Brexit talks. Here's the Defence Secretary,
:01:59. > :02:05.Michael Fallon, speaking We are going to look
:02:06. > :02:10.after Gibraltar. Gibraltar's going to be protected
:02:11. > :02:15.all the way, all the way, because the sovereignty of Gibraltar
:02:16. > :02:17.cannot be changed without the agreement of the people
:02:18. > :02:20.of Gibraltar and they have made it very clear they do not
:02:21. > :02:23.want to live under Spanish rule and it is interesting, I think,
:02:24. > :02:26.in the draft guidelines from the EU that Spain is not saying
:02:27. > :02:37.that the whole thing is subject Michael Fallon earlier. Steve, is
:02:38. > :02:42.this a Spanish power grab or much ado about nothing? It could be both.
:02:43. > :02:46.Clearly what is happening about this negotiation and will happen again
:02:47. > :02:51.and again is that at different points individual countries can
:02:52. > :02:59.start playing bargaining cards. They will say, if you want a deal, you
:03:00. > :03:03.have to deliver this, UK. Spain is doing it early. It might turn out to
:03:04. > :03:09.be nothing at all. It is an early example of how to delete recruit
:03:10. > :03:18.after Article 50 is triggered, the dynamic -- how after Article 50 is
:03:19. > :03:22.triggered, the dynamic changes. At certain points, any country can veto
:03:23. > :03:27.it. It gives them much more power than we have clocked so far. Donald
:03:28. > :03:32.Tusk, the head of the European Council, he went out of his way to
:03:33. > :03:35.say Britain mustn't deal by laterally, with individual
:03:36. > :03:42.countries, it has to deal with the EU as a block. Was it mischiefmaking
:03:43. > :03:49.to add this bit in about Spain? Those two things do not tally. I
:03:50. > :03:56.think on our part, when I say we, I mean the Foreign Office and Number
:03:57. > :04:00.10, we dropped the ball. By excluding Gibraltar from the letter
:04:01. > :04:04.of Article 50, they gave an opportunity to the Spanish to steal
:04:05. > :04:10.the narrative. Why this is important, presentation, things
:04:11. > :04:15.looked like they were going quite well for Theresa May when she handed
:04:16. > :04:19.over the letter, for a few hours, and suddenly, you have this
:04:20. > :04:25.incredible symbolism of Gibraltar. For Brexiteers, the idea that there
:04:26. > :04:29.could be some kind of diminishment or failure in relation to Gibraltar,
:04:30. > :04:34.it would be a very symbolic illustration of things not going
:04:35. > :04:38.entirely to plan. Forget the detail, it does not look great. Gibraltar
:04:39. > :04:43.got mentions in the white paper. They did not get a mention in the
:04:44. > :04:49.Article 50 notification. Do you think the British Government did not
:04:50. > :04:51.see this coming? To be honest, I do not think it would make a bit of
:04:52. > :04:57.difference. Theresa May could have an entire chapter in her letter to
:04:58. > :05:02.Donald Tusk and the Spanish and the EU would have still tried this on.
:05:03. > :05:08.For me, it was as much a point of symbolism than it was for any power
:05:09. > :05:12.grab. It was a good point to make. You need to know, Britain, you are
:05:13. > :05:16.not in our club, we will not have your interests at heart. Officials
:05:17. > :05:23.after the press conference, they went on to talk about it saying it
:05:24. > :05:30.is a territorial dispute. It is not! Gibraltar is British. It is very
:05:31. > :05:34.much a shot across the bow is. Whether it comes to pass, it is
:05:35. > :05:38.still yet to be seen. I feel we will be chasing hares like this for the
:05:39. > :05:45.next few years. There will be many other examples. They are greatly
:05:46. > :05:51.empowered by the whole process. Britain has not really got... It has
:05:52. > :05:54.got to wait and hear what their interpretation of Brexit is. They
:05:55. > :05:59.will negotiate, we will negotiate accordingly. I have some sympathy
:06:00. > :06:05.about the letter, the Article 50 letter. They agonised over it, so
:06:06. > :06:08.much to get right in terms of balance and tone. It would have been
:06:09. > :06:20.absurd to start mentioning Skegness and everything else. Why not!
:06:21. > :06:25.Skegness, what did they do? It is a real example of how the dynamic now
:06:26. > :06:28.changes. The Spanish royals are going to come here in a couple of
:06:29. > :06:34.months, that could be interesting. It will be good feelings breaking
:06:35. > :06:42.up, I am sure. -- breaking out. So, after a historic week,
:06:43. > :06:45.the UK is now very much But will it be a smooth
:06:46. > :06:49.journey to the exit door? Or can we expect
:06:50. > :06:51.a bit of turbulence? Are you taking back
:06:52. > :06:53.control, Prime Minister? Big days in politics usually
:06:54. > :06:55.involve people shouting and the Prime Minister getting
:06:56. > :06:57.in a car. It is only a few hundred metres
:06:58. > :07:00.from Downing Street to Parliament. But the short journey is the start
:07:01. > :07:03.of a much longer one and we do not know exactly
:07:04. > :07:08.where we will all end up. This is a historic moment
:07:09. > :07:10.from which there can Moments earlier, this Dear John,
:07:11. > :07:20.sorry, Dear Don letter, was delivered by Britain's
:07:21. > :07:22.ambassador in Brussels to the EU He seemed genuinely upset
:07:23. > :07:25.to have been jilted. Back in Westminster,
:07:26. > :07:31.hacks from around the world were trying to work out what it
:07:32. > :07:34.all meant for the So, here it is, a copy
:07:35. > :07:40.of the six-page letter The letter reaffirms the PM's
:07:41. > :07:47.proposal to have talks on the exit deal and a future trade deal
:07:48. > :07:49.at the same time. It also mentioned the word
:07:50. > :07:52."security" 11 times and stated a failure to reach agreement
:07:53. > :07:54.would mean cooperation in the fight against crime
:07:55. > :07:58.and terrorism would be weakened. Later, our very own Andrew got
:07:59. > :08:02.to ask her what would happen if Britain left the European
:08:03. > :08:07.policing agency, Europol. We would not be able to access
:08:08. > :08:11.information in the same way as we would as a member,
:08:12. > :08:14.so it is important, I think, we are able to negotiate
:08:15. > :08:16.a continuing relationship that enables us to work together
:08:17. > :08:19.in the way that we have. That night, the
:08:20. > :08:21.Brexiteers were happy. We did not have a Mad
:08:22. > :08:27.Hatter, but now we do. Down the street, even the Remainers,
:08:28. > :08:31.having a Mad Hatters' tea party, I am not sure that is
:08:32. > :08:39.actually Boris, though. The next morning, the papers
:08:40. > :08:54.suggested Theresa May would use security as a bargaining tool
:08:55. > :08:55.and threaten to withdraw the UK's cooperation in this area
:08:56. > :08:55.if no deal was struck. Downing Street denied it,
:08:56. > :08:56.as did the Brexit Secretary. We can both cope, but we
:08:57. > :08:58.will both be worse off. That seems to be a statement
:08:59. > :09:01.of fact, it is not a threat, David Davis had other
:09:02. > :09:05.business that morning, introducing the Great Repeal Bill,
:09:06. > :09:07.outling his plans to transfer all EU law into British
:09:08. > :09:09.law to change later, It is not without its critics
:09:10. > :09:14.but the Brexit Secretary said, among other benefits,
:09:15. > :09:17.it would make trade talks easier As we exit the EU and seek
:09:18. > :09:23.a new deep and special partnership with the European Union,
:09:24. > :09:26.we are doing so from a position where we have the same
:09:27. > :09:28.standards and rules. It will also ensure we deliver
:09:29. > :09:34.on our promise to end the supremacy of European Union law
:09:35. > :09:36.in the UK as we exit. There was, though, a small
:09:37. > :09:43.issue with the name. The Government hit an early hurdle
:09:44. > :09:46.with the Great Repeal Bill. Parliamentary draughtsmen said
:09:47. > :09:49.they were not allowed Great(!)
:09:50. > :09:56.so it is just the Repeal Bill. So far, it had been
:09:57. > :09:59.a tale of two cities. By Friday, there was another,
:10:00. > :10:03.Valletta in Malta, where EU leaders were having a meeting
:10:04. > :10:05.and President Tusk, yes, him again, set out draft guidelines
:10:06. > :10:11.for the EU Brexit strategy. Once, and only once,
:10:12. > :10:15.we have achieved sufficient progress on the withdrawal can we discuss
:10:16. > :10:17.the framework for our Starting parallel talks
:10:18. > :10:20.on all issues at the same time, as suggested by some in the UK,
:10:21. > :10:29.will not happen. The EU 27 does not and will not
:10:30. > :10:34.pursue a punitive approach. Brexit in itself is
:10:35. > :10:40.already punitive enough. The pressure on Theresa May to get
:10:41. > :10:43.the Brexit process going has now gone and the stage is being set
:10:44. > :10:46.elsewhere for the showdown But face-to-face discussions
:10:47. > :10:56.are not likely to happen Before May or early June. No one is
:10:57. > :11:03.celebrating just yet. We're joined now from Kent
:11:04. > :11:11.by the former Conservative The EU says it will not talk about a
:11:12. > :11:14.future relationship with the UK until there has been sufficient
:11:15. > :11:21.progress on agreeing the divorce bill. Should the UK agree to this
:11:22. > :11:28.phased approach? Well, I think you can make too much about the sequence
:11:29. > :11:33.and timing of the negotiations. I assume that it will be a case of
:11:34. > :11:36.nothing is agreed until everything is agreed and so any agreements that
:11:37. > :11:42.might be reached on things talked about early on will be very
:11:43. > :11:46.provisional, so I think you can make a big deal about the timing and the
:11:47. > :11:50.sequence when I do not think it really matters as much as all that.
:11:51. > :11:55.Don't people have a right in this country to be surprised of the talk
:11:56. > :11:59.of a massive multi-billion pound divorce settlement? I do not
:12:00. > :12:07.remember either side making much of this in the referendum, do you? No.
:12:08. > :12:10.A select committee of the House of Lords recently reported and said
:12:11. > :12:16.that there was no legal basis for any exit fee. We will have to see
:12:17. > :12:23.how the negotiations go. I think some of the figures cited so far are
:12:24. > :12:28.wildly out of kilter and wildly unrealistic. We will have to see
:12:29. > :12:32.what happens in the negotiations. As one of your panel commented earlier,
:12:33. > :12:36.there will be lots of hares to pursue over the next couple of years
:12:37. > :12:43.and we should not get too excited about any of them. Would you accept
:12:44. > :12:47.that we make... It may not be anything like the figures Brussels
:12:48. > :12:55.is kicking around of 50, 60 billion euros, do you think we will have to
:12:56. > :13:00.make a one-off settlement? If we get everything else we want, if we get a
:13:01. > :13:06.really good trade deal and access for the City of London and so on,
:13:07. > :13:10.speaking for myself, I would be prepared to make a modest payment.
:13:11. > :13:20.But it all depends on the deal we get. What would modest be? Oh, I
:13:21. > :13:23.cannot give you a figure. We are right at the start of the
:13:24. > :13:29.negotiations. I do not think that would be agreed until near the end.
:13:30. > :13:32.The EU says that if there is a transition period of several years
:13:33. > :13:37.after the negotiations, and there is more talk of that, the UK must
:13:38. > :13:41.remain subject to the free movement of peoples and the jurisdiction of
:13:42. > :13:46.the European Court of Justice, would that be acceptable to you? It
:13:47. > :13:50.depends on the nature of the transitional agreement. We are
:13:51. > :13:57.getting well ahead of ourselves here. You cannot, I think, for any
:13:58. > :14:00.judgment as to whether there should be a transitional stage until you
:14:01. > :14:05.know what the final deal is. If there is to be a final deal. And
:14:06. > :14:12.then you know how long it might take to implement that deal. That is
:14:13. > :14:16.something I think that it is really rather futile to talk about at this
:14:17. > :14:21.stage. It may become relevant, depending on the nature of the deal,
:14:22. > :14:26.and that is the proper time to talk about it and decide what the answer
:14:27. > :14:30.to the questions you pose might be. Except the EU has laid this out in
:14:31. > :14:36.its negotiation mandate and it is reasonable to ask people like
:14:37. > :14:41.yourself, should we accept that? It is reasonable for me to say, they
:14:42. > :14:44.will raise all sorts of things in their negotiating mandate and we do
:14:45. > :14:49.not need to form a view of all of them at this stage. Let me try
:14:50. > :14:52.another one. The EU says if they do agree what you have called a
:14:53. > :14:57.comprehensive free trade deal, we would have to accept EU constraints
:14:58. > :15:05.on state aid and taxes like VAT and corporation tax. Would you accept
:15:06. > :15:09.that? Again, I am not sure quite what they have in mind on that. We
:15:10. > :15:14.will be an independent country when we leave and we will make our own
:15:15. > :15:22.decisions about those matters. Not according to know that -- to the
:15:23. > :15:26.negotiating mandate. As I have said, they can put all sorts of things in
:15:27. > :15:31.the negotiating guidelines, it does not mean we have to agree with them.
:15:32. > :15:37.No doubt that is something we can discuss in the context of a free
:15:38. > :15:40.trade agreement. If we get a free trade agreement, that is very
:15:41. > :15:42.important for them as well as for us, and we can talk about some of
:15:43. > :15:54.the things you have just mentioned. Can you please leave a 20 without
:15:55. > :16:00.having repatriated full control of migration, taxis and the law? I
:16:01. > :16:07.think we will have repatriated all three of those things by the time of
:16:08. > :16:10.the next general election. How high would you rate the chances of no
:16:11. > :16:17.deal, and does that prospect worry you? I think the chances are we will
:16:18. > :16:21.get the deal, and I think the chances are we will get a good deal,
:16:22. > :16:28.because that is in the interests of both sides of this negotiation. But
:16:29. > :16:33.it is not the end of the world if we do not get a deal. Most trade in the
:16:34. > :16:37.world is carried out under World Trade Organisation rules. We would
:16:38. > :16:42.be perfectly OK if we traded with the European Union, as with
:16:43. > :16:45.everybody else, under World Trade Organisation rules. It is better to
:16:46. > :16:50.get the deal, and I think we will get the deal, because it is in the
:16:51. > :16:54.interests of both. Let me ask you about Gibraltar. You have campaigned
:16:55. > :16:59.in Gibraltar when the sovereignty issue came up under the Tony Blair
:17:00. > :17:04.government. The EU says that Spain should have a veto on whether any
:17:05. > :17:10.free-trade deal should apply to the Rock. How should the British
:17:11. > :17:15.government replied to that? As it has responded, by making it
:17:16. > :17:22.absolutely clear that we will stand by Gibraltar. 35 years ago this
:17:23. > :17:24.week, Andrew, another woman Prime Minister Centre task force is
:17:25. > :17:28.halfway across the world to protect another small group of British
:17:29. > :17:34.people against another Spanish-speaking country. I am
:17:35. > :17:37.absolutely clear that our current woman Prime Minister will show the
:17:38. > :17:49.same resolve in relation to Gibraltar as her predecessor did.
:17:50. > :17:51.This is not about Spain invading Gibraltar, it is not even about
:17:52. > :17:53.sovereignty, it is about Spain having a veto over whether any
:17:54. > :17:57.free-trade deal that the UK makes with the EU should also apply to
:17:58. > :18:03.Gibraltar. On that issue, how should the British government respond? The
:18:04. > :18:08.British government should show resolve. It is not in the interests
:18:09. > :18:12.of Spain, really, to interfere with free trade to Gibraltar. 10,000
:18:13. > :18:17.people who live in Spain working Gibraltar. That is a very important
:18:18. > :18:22.Spanish interest, so I am very confident that in the end, we will
:18:23. > :18:27.be able to look after all the interests of Gibraltar, including
:18:28. > :18:28.free trade. Michael Howard, thank you for joining us from Kent this
:18:29. > :18:31.morning. Although sometimes it seems
:18:32. > :18:33.like everyone has forgotten, there are things happening
:18:34. > :18:35.other than Brexit. In less than five weeks' time,
:18:36. > :18:38.there will be a round of important domestic elections and there's a lot
:18:39. > :18:41.up for grabs. Local elections take place
:18:42. > :18:43.on the 4th of May in England, In England, there are elections
:18:44. > :18:48.in 34 councils, with 2,370 The majority are county councils,
:18:49. > :18:55.usually areas of strength Large cities where Labour usually
:18:56. > :19:02.fares better are not Six regions of England will also
:19:03. > :19:05.hold elections for newly created combined authority mayors,
:19:06. > :19:08.and there will be contests for directly elected mayors,
:19:09. > :19:15.with voters in Manchester, Liverpool and the West Midlands
:19:16. > :19:18.among those going to the polls. In Scotland, every seat in all 32
:19:19. > :19:20.councils are being contested, many of them affected
:19:21. > :19:23.by boundary changes. Since these seats were last
:19:24. > :19:25.contested, Labour lost all but one Meanwhile, every seat in each
:19:26. > :19:31.of Wales' 22 councils All but one was last elected
:19:32. > :19:37.in 2012 in what was a very strong year for Labour,
:19:38. > :19:38.though independent candidates currently hold
:19:39. > :19:41.a quarter of council seats. According to the latest
:19:42. > :19:43.calculations by Plymouth University Election Centre,
:19:44. > :19:48.the Tories are predicted to increase their tally by 50 seats,
:19:49. > :19:51.despite being in government, But the dramatic story in England
:19:52. > :19:58.looks to be with the other parties, with the Lib-Dems possibly winning
:19:59. > :20:00.100 seats, while Ukip could be seeing a fall,
:20:01. > :20:05.predicted to lose 100 seats. Though the proportional system
:20:06. > :20:07.usually makes big changes less likely in Scotland,
:20:08. > :20:10.the SNP is predicted to increase both the number of seats
:20:11. > :20:13.they hold, and the number In Wales, Labour is defending a high
:20:14. > :20:22.water mark in support. Last year's Welsh Assembly elections
:20:23. > :20:24.suggest the only way is down, with all the parties making modest
:20:25. > :20:27.gains at Labour's expense. Joining me now is the BBC's
:20:28. > :20:29.very own elections guru, Professor John Curtice
:20:30. > :20:37.of the University of Strathclyde. Good to see you again. Let's start
:20:38. > :20:41.with England. How bad are the selection is going to be for Labour?
:20:42. > :20:45.Labourer not defending a great deal because this is for the most part
:20:46. > :20:50.rural England. The only control three of the council they are
:20:51. > :20:55.defending and they are only defending around 500 seats, I nearly
:20:56. > :20:59.a quarter are in one county, Durham. Labour's position in the opinion
:21:00. > :21:02.polls is weakened over the last 12 months and if you compare the
:21:03. > :21:14.position in the opinion polls now with where they were in the spring
:21:15. > :21:17.of 2013 when these seats in England were last fought, we are talking
:21:18. > :21:19.about a 12 point swing from Labour to conservative. The estimate of 50
:21:20. > :21:22.losses may be somewhat optimistic for Labour. Of the three council
:21:23. > :21:26.areas they control, two of them, Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire,
:21:27. > :21:30.could be lost, leaving labourer with virtually a duck as far as council
:21:31. > :21:34.control is concerned in these elections in England. In England,
:21:35. > :21:39.what would a Liberal Democrat reserve urgently great? That is the
:21:40. > :21:43.big question. We have had this picture since the EU referendum of
:21:44. > :21:46.the Liberal Democrats doing extraordinarily well in some local
:21:47. > :21:54.by-elections, gaining seats that they had not even fought before, and
:21:55. > :21:56.in other areas, doing no more than treading water. We are expecting a
:21:57. > :22:00.Liberal Democrat skin because the lost the lot -- the lost lots of
:22:01. > :22:04.ground when they were in coalition with the Conservatives. It is
:22:05. > :22:08.uncertain. A patchy performance may well be to their advantage. If they
:22:09. > :22:11.do well in some places and gain seats, and elsewhere do not do
:22:12. > :22:15.terribly well and do not waste votes, they may end up doing
:22:16. > :22:20.relatively well in seats, even if the overall gaining votes is likely
:22:21. > :22:51.to be modest. The elections for mayors, they are taking place in
:22:52. > :22:55.the Labour will that be a hefty consolation prize for the Labour
:22:56. > :22:57.Party? It ought to be, on Teesside, Merseyside, Greater Manchester. We
:22:58. > :23:00.are looking at one content very closely, that is the contest for the
:23:01. > :23:02.mayor of the West Midlands. If you look at what happened in the general
:23:03. > :23:05.election in 2015, labourer work nine points ahead of the Conservatives in
:23:06. > :23:07.the West Midlands. If you look at the swing since the general
:23:08. > :23:10.election, if you add that swing to where we were two years ago, the
:23:11. > :23:12.West Midlands now looks like a draw. Labour have to worry about a
:23:13. > :23:15.headline grabbing loss, and the West Midlands contest. If they were to
:23:16. > :23:17.lose, that wooden crate -- that would increase the pressure for
:23:18. > :23:21.their own Jeremy Corbyn to convince people that they can turn his
:23:22. > :23:26.party's fortunes around, and in truth at the moment, they are pretty
:23:27. > :23:30.dire. The West Midlands has Birmingham as its heart.
:23:31. > :23:35.Chock-a-block with marginal seats. It always has been. I always
:23:36. > :23:42.remember election night and marginal seats in the West Midlands.
:23:43. > :23:47.Scotland, the SNP is assaulting Labour's last remaining power base.
:23:48. > :23:53.The biggest prizes Glasgow. Will it take it, the SNP? Whether the SNP
:23:54. > :23:57.will gain control of Glasgow is uncertain. If you look at what is
:23:58. > :24:02.happening in local government by-elections let alone the opinion
:24:03. > :24:06.polls, in 2012, when these seats were last fought, Labour did
:24:07. > :24:10.relatively well, only one percentage point behind the SNP who were rather
:24:11. > :24:15.disappointed with the result compared to other elections. No sign
:24:16. > :24:23.of that happening this time alone -- this time around. Polls put the SNP
:24:24. > :24:26.ahead. By-elections have found the SNP advancing and Labour dropping by
:24:27. > :24:29.double digits. Labour are going to lose everything they currently
:24:30. > :24:33.control in Scotland, the SNP will become the dominant party, the
:24:34. > :24:37.question is how well they do. In Scotland there is a Conservative
:24:38. > :24:42.revival going on. The Conservatives did well in recent local government
:24:43. > :24:46.by-elections. At the moment, Labour are expected to come third north of
:24:47. > :24:52.the border in the local elections, repeating the third they suffered in
:24:53. > :24:55.the Holyrood elections last year. In Wales, Labour is expecting to lose
:24:56. > :25:02.control of a number of councils. They are the main party in 12 of 22
:25:03. > :25:06.local authorities. How bad could it be? We're expecting Labour to lose
:25:07. > :25:11.ground. In the opinion polls when these seats were last fought,
:25:12. > :25:16.labourer in the high 40s. Now they are not much above 30%. Cardiff
:25:17. > :25:21.could well join Glasgow was no longer being a Labour stronghold.
:25:22. > :25:24.Look out for Newport. Some of the South Wales councils that Labour
:25:25. > :25:39.control, Labour is probably too but occasionally, Plaid
:25:40. > :25:42.Cymru surprises in this area. They managed to win the Rhondda seat in
:25:43. > :25:44.the assembly elections. Jeremy Corbyn has said he wants to be
:25:45. > :25:47.judged on proper elections, council elections as opposed to opinion
:25:48. > :25:49.polls, but even if he does as badly as John has been suggesting, does it
:25:50. > :25:56.affect his leadership? I think it does on two counts. It will affect
:25:57. > :25:59.his own confidence. Anyone who is a human being will be affected by
:26:00. > :26:05.this. He might go into his office and be told by John McDonnell and
:26:06. > :26:11.others, stand firm, it is all right, but it will affect his confidence
:26:12. > :26:15.and inevitably it contributes to a sense that this is moving to some
:26:16. > :26:19.kind of denoument, at some point. In other words, while I understand the
:26:20. > :26:26.argument that he has won twice in a leadership contest, well, within 12
:26:27. > :26:34.months, I wonder whether this can carry on in a fixed term parliament,
:26:35. > :26:38.up until 2020, if it were to do so. On two France, it will have some
:26:39. > :26:43.impact. I am not seeing it will lead to his immediate departure, it will
:26:44. > :26:49.mark, but if these things are as devastating as John suggests, it
:26:50. > :26:55.will have an impact. Tom, I'll be looking at a Lib Dem fightback? That
:26:56. > :26:59.is the $64,000 question. It would seem that we should be. One massive
:27:00. > :27:04.reason we're not having a general election a time soon, apart from the
:27:05. > :27:06.fact that Theresa May does not believe in these things, she
:27:07. > :27:12.believes in pressing on, it is because Tory MPs in the South West
:27:13. > :27:14.who took the Lib Dem seats, they were telling Number 10 they were
:27:15. > :27:18.worried they were going to lose their seats back to the Lib Dems.
:27:19. > :27:23.The Lib Dems never went away and local government. They have got
:27:24. > :27:28.other campaigners and activists. It looks credible that they will be the
:27:29. > :27:32.success story of the whole thing. Ukip leader, Paul Nuttall, he says
:27:33. > :27:39.this will be the most difficult local elections his party will face
:27:40. > :27:44.before 2020. A bit of management of expectations. It is unlikely to be a
:27:45. > :27:49.good time for Ukip. They are right to manage expectations. The results
:27:50. > :28:09.will be horrible for Ukip. I agree with Tom about the Lib Dem
:28:10. > :28:13.threat to the Tories. Talking to some senior figures within the Tory
:28:14. > :28:15.party earlier this week, I was picking up that they are worried
:28:16. > :28:17.about 30-40 general election seeds being vulnerable to the Lib Dems
:28:18. > :28:19.because of the Labour collapse. I would normally agree with Steve
:28:20. > :28:22.about the resilience of politicians, the capability of withstanding
:28:23. > :28:24.repeated blows, but Jeremy Corbyn is not in the normal category. I think
:28:25. > :28:26.he is, in the sense that although he get solace from winning leadership
:28:27. > :28:31.contest, anyone who leads a party into the kind of, it is not going to
:28:32. > :28:37.be that vivid, because they are not defending the key seats. If they
:28:38. > :28:43.were to win Birmingham, say, and get slaughtered by the SNP in Scotland,
:28:44. > :28:46.it will undermine what is already a fairly ambiguous sense of
:28:47. > :28:49.self-confidence. We need to leave it there. Thank you, John Curtice.
:28:50. > :28:51.Well, with those elections on the horizon, is Labour where it
:28:52. > :28:54.Former leader Ed Miliband was on the Andrew
:28:55. > :28:56.Marr Show earlier and he explained the challenge Labour faces
:28:57. > :29:01.It is easier for other parties, if you are the Greens or the
:29:02. > :29:03.Liberal Democrats you're essentially fishing in the 48% pool.
:29:04. > :29:08.If you are Ukip, you are fishing in the 52% pool.
:29:09. > :29:10.Labour is trying to do something much harder,
:29:11. > :29:12.which is to try and speak for the whole country,
:29:13. > :29:14.and by the way, that is another part of
:29:15. > :29:18.Our attack on Theresa May, part of it is she's
:29:19. > :29:25.Ignoring the verdict going into this, saying,
:29:26. > :29:26.let's overturn it, looks like ignoring the 52%.
:29:27. > :29:32.By the way, there is more that unites Remainers
:29:33. > :29:34.and Leavers than might first appear, because they share common
:29:35. > :29:39.concerns about the way the country is run.
:29:40. > :29:45.Joining me now is the Shadow Health Secretary, Jon Ashworth.
:29:46. > :29:49.Welcome to the programme. Alastair Campbell told me on the BBC on
:29:50. > :29:55.Thursday that he is fighting to reverse the referendum result. Ed
:29:56. > :30:01.Miliband says that Remain needs to accept the result, come to terms
:30:02. > :30:05.with it. Who is right? We have to accept the referendum result. I
:30:06. > :30:10.campaigned passionately to remain in the European Union. The city I
:30:11. > :30:14.represent, Leicester, voted narrowly to remain in the European Union.
:30:15. > :30:18.Sadly the country did not. We cannot overturn that and be like kinky
:30:19. > :30:24.nude, trying to demand the tide go back out. We have to accept this
:30:25. > :30:32.democratic process. We all voted to have a referendum when the relevant
:30:33. > :30:39.legislation came to Parliament. How bad will the local elections before
:30:40. > :30:46.Labour? Let us see where we get to on election night when I am sure I
:30:47. > :30:54.will be invited on to one of these types of programmes... The election
:30:55. > :30:58.date, the following day. But it does look like you will lose seats across
:30:59. > :31:03.the board in England, Scotland and Wales. What did you make of what
:31:04. > :31:08.Steve Richards said about the impact on Jeremy Corbyn's leadership? We
:31:09. > :31:15.have to win seats, we cannot fall back on the scales suggested. No,
:31:16. > :31:22.your package was right, it tends to be Tory areas, but generally, we
:31:23. > :31:25.have to be winning in Nottinghamshire, Lancashire, those
:31:26. > :31:29.types of places because they contain a lot of the marginal constituencies
:31:30. > :31:35.that decide general elections. The important places in the elections
:31:36. > :31:42.are towns like Beeston, towns you have not heard of, but they are
:31:43. > :31:47.marginal towns in marginal swing constituencies. We have to do well
:31:48. > :31:50.in them. We will see where we are on election night but my pretty is to
:31:51. > :31:58.campaign hard in these areas over the next few weeks. Even people who
:31:59. > :32:04.voted Labour in 2015, they prefer Theresa May to Mr Corbyn as Prime
:32:05. > :32:08.Minister, a recent poll said. Isn't that extraordinary? I have not seen
:32:09. > :32:16.that. I will look it up. It was you Government. -- YouGov. It is
:32:17. > :32:21.important we win the trust of people. You are not winning the
:32:22. > :32:27.trust of people who voted for you in 2015. We have to hold onto people
:32:28. > :32:31.who voted for us in 2015 and we have to persuade people who voted for
:32:32. > :32:36.other parties to come to us. One of the criticisms I have of the debate
:32:37. > :32:40.that goes on in the wider Labour Party, do not misunderstand me, I am
:32:41. > :32:45.not making a criticism about an individual, but the debate you see
:32:46. > :32:50.online suggests that if you want to get people who voted Conservative to
:32:51. > :32:54.switch to Labour it is somehow a betrayal of our principles, it was
:32:55. > :33:00.not. Justin Trudeau said Conservative voters are our
:33:01. > :33:06.neighbours, our relatives. We have to persuade people to switch from
:33:07. > :33:13.voting Conservative to voting Labour as well as increasing our vote among
:33:14. > :33:17.nonvoters and Greens. It seems like you have a mountain to climb and the
:33:18. > :33:24.mountain is Everest. Another poll, I am not sure if you have seen this,
:33:25. > :33:34.in London, the Bastian of Labour, the Bastian of Remain, Mr Corbyn is
:33:35. > :33:39.less popular than even Ukip's Paul Nuttall. That is beyond
:33:40. > :33:43.extraordinary! I do not know about that. The most recent set of
:33:44. > :33:49.elections in London was the mayoral election where the Labour candidate
:33:50. > :33:55.city: won handsomely. He took the seat of a conservative. We took that
:33:56. > :34:08.of a conservative. It was a year ago. We did well then. You had an
:34:09. > :34:11.anti-Jeremy Corbyn candidate. I think he nominated Jeremy Corbyn,
:34:12. > :34:15.from memory. We have not got elections in London but our
:34:16. > :34:25.elections are in the county areas and the various mayoral elections...
:34:26. > :34:30.What about the West Midlands? In any normal year, mid-term, as the
:34:31. > :34:36.opposition, Labour should win the West Midlands. John Curtis says it
:34:37. > :34:40.is nip and tuck. It has always been a swing region but we want to do
:34:41. > :34:47.well, of course. We want to turn out a strong Labour vote in Dudley,
:34:48. > :34:52.Northampton, those sorts of places. They are key constituencies in the
:34:53. > :34:58.general election. Does Labour look like a government in waiting to you?
:34:59. > :35:03.What I would say is contrast where we are to what the conservative
:35:04. > :35:07.garment is doing. I asked you about Labour, you do not get to tell me
:35:08. > :35:12.about the Conservatives. Does it look like a government in waiting to
:35:13. > :35:15.you? Today we are exposing the Conservatives... Reminding people
:35:16. > :35:21.the Conservatives are breaking the pledge on waiting times of 18 weeks
:35:22. > :35:27.so lots of elderly people waiting longer in pain for hip replacements
:35:28. > :35:29.and cataract replacements. Yesterday the Housing spokesperson John Healey
:35:30. > :35:35.was exposing the shortcomings in the Help to Buy scheme. The education
:35:36. > :35:39.spokesperson has been campaigning hard against the cuts to schools.
:35:40. > :35:44.Tom Watson has been campaigning hard against some of the changes the
:35:45. > :35:47.Government want to introduce in culture. The Shadow Cabinet are
:35:48. > :35:52.working hard to hold the Government's feet to the fire. Does
:35:53. > :35:59.it look like a government in waiting? Yes. It took you three
:36:00. > :36:03.times! There is a social care crisis, schools funding issue, a
:36:04. > :36:07.huge issue for lots of areas, the NHS has just got through the winter
:36:08. > :36:15.and is abandoning many of its targets. You are 18 points behind in
:36:16. > :36:22.the polls. We have to work harder. What can you do? The opinion polls
:36:23. > :36:27.are challenging but we are a great Social Democratic Party of
:36:28. > :36:29.government. On Twitter today, lots of Labour activists celebrating that
:36:30. > :36:34.the national minimum wage has been in place for something like 16 years
:36:35. > :36:39.because we were in government. Look of the sweeping progressive changes
:36:40. > :36:44.this country has benefited from, the NHS, sure start centres, an assault
:36:45. > :36:49.on child poverty, the Labour Party got itself in contention for
:36:50. > :36:53.government. I entirely accept the polls do not make thrilling reading
:36:54. > :36:57.for Labour politicians on Sunday morning, but it means people like me
:36:58. > :37:00.have to work harder because we are part of something bigger than an
:37:01. > :37:04.individual, we are in the business of changing things for the British
:37:05. > :37:07.people and if we do not do that, if we do not focus on that, we are
:37:08. > :37:16.letting people down. Is Labour preparing for an early election
:37:17. > :37:21.question Billy burqa? Reports in the press of a war chest as macro for an
:37:22. > :37:25.early election? The general election coordinator called for a general
:37:26. > :37:28.election when Theresa May became Prime Minister. We are investing in
:37:29. > :37:34.staff and the organisational capability we need. By the way, the
:37:35. > :37:39.Labour Party staff do brilliant work. A bit of nonsense on Twitter
:37:40. > :37:42.having a go at them. They do tremendous work. Whenever the
:37:43. > :37:50.election comes, they will be ready. Jon Ashworth, thank you.
:37:51. > :38:11.Hello, and a very warm welcome to your local part of the show.
:38:12. > :38:13.And this week, a warning that the north-east and Cumbria
:38:14. > :38:16.could pay the price for Brexit in thousands of lost
:38:17. > :38:19.Of course we have heard all of those warnings before
:38:20. > :38:25.These women on Tyneside say problems with the Government's new benefits
:38:26. > :38:29.With me to discuss that, the week's seismic political events as well,
:38:30. > :38:31.are City of Durham Labour MP Roberta Blackman-Woods,
:38:32. > :38:33.Ukip's Melanie Hurst, and Stockton Conservative
:38:34. > :38:38.First though, to Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn,
:38:39. > :38:46.He visited a new business in Blyth with local MP Ronnie Campbell,
:38:47. > :38:48.before addressing a meeting of Labour Party members in Stockton.
:38:49. > :38:51.I asked him about Labour's approach to Brexit, and what he saw
:38:52. > :38:58.The importance of having a tariff-free access
:38:59. > :39:00.to the European market is absolutely essential.
:39:01. > :39:02.If for example there is a tariff put on all car exports
:39:03. > :39:04.or all parts exported, then in the long-term,
:39:05. > :39:07.are those big companies going to maintain their investment
:39:08. > :39:10.in the north-east or indeed anywhere else in the country?
:39:11. > :39:14.And so the priority we have put in the whole Brexit process
:39:15. > :39:15.is tariff-free access to the European market.
:39:16. > :39:18.So how will the Labour Party ensure that a region
:39:19. > :39:22.Because a lot of people here voted for Brexit,
:39:23. > :39:25.it would be ironic if they end up being poorer because of it.
:39:26. > :39:28.Well, indeed people voted to leave the European Union,
:39:29. > :39:31.we respect that decision, we carried it through in the sense
:39:32. > :39:37.They didn't vote, however, to make themselves unemployed,
:39:38. > :39:39.they didn't vote to damage their own public services.
:39:40. > :39:42.We have forced the Government to ensure there is going to be
:39:43. > :39:47.a vote in Parliament at the end of it.
:39:48. > :39:50.We will make sure there is a scrutinising process
:39:51. > :39:57.all the way through this in which we, if necessary,
:39:58. > :40:01.on all the related bills to the Great Repeal Bill
:40:02. > :40:04.because I want to be absolutely sure that the industries in this
:40:05. > :40:06.country and the skills that are here in the north-east
:40:07. > :40:08.can be fully utilised and we can make those trains,
:40:09. > :40:11.make those cars and all the other things and export them to Europe
:40:12. > :40:16.Jeremy Corbyn, talking to me in Blyth on Thursday.
:40:17. > :40:18.Roberta Blackman-Woods, I know you abstained on at least one
:40:19. > :40:22.Are you happy Labour is doing all it can to protect the north-east?
:40:23. > :40:26.I think we've used every opportunity that we've had in Westminster
:40:27. > :40:28.and beyond to argue the case, particularly for our industries
:40:29. > :40:38.We want to ensure that Brexit and after Brexit that we do
:40:39. > :40:40.have tariff-free access to European markets.
:40:41. > :40:43.That's absolutely essential for our businesses, not only
:40:44. > :40:46.for them to exist but to continue to expand, and we want Nissan
:40:47. > :40:55.and Hitachi and other manufacturing companies to prosper in the region
:40:56. > :40:59.and to achieve that, we have to ensure that access
:41:00. > :41:01.to markets continue not only in Europe but actually
:41:02. > :41:09.The Liberal Democrats would say actually you made that less likely
:41:10. > :41:12.because what you did is vote, largely -I know you abstained -
:41:13. > :41:14.but with the Government to trigger Article 50
:41:15. > :41:18.I abstained because my constituents wanted to remain, but as a party
:41:19. > :41:21.we recognise that the country as a whole had voted for Brexit.
:41:22. > :41:26.We thought that the result of that referendum should be respected,
:41:27. > :41:28.and what the job of the opposition was,
:41:29. > :41:31.is to get the best deal possible for the country post Brexit.
:41:32. > :41:36.We have put six tests in place that we are saying the Government
:41:37. > :41:38.the Government have to adhere to, and that ensures for
:41:39. > :41:41.cooperation on security, all regions will be covered,
:41:42. > :41:43.but we have really tested the Government on this.
:41:44. > :41:45.We will see whether they get achieved.
:41:46. > :41:47.Matthew Vickers, a momentous week obviously, a huge week
:41:48. > :41:51.Do you see this as an exciting time or are there dangers ahead?
:41:52. > :41:56.I think there are obviously people who are going to be nervous,
:41:57. > :42:00.It's a very exciting time, we will be opening up the door
:42:01. > :42:03.Instead of being confined to trading with Europe,
:42:04. > :42:06.we are going to be able to get out there in the wider world
:42:07. > :42:08.and deal with some of the biggest economies...
:42:09. > :42:11.We haven't been confined to trading with Europe, have we?
:42:12. > :42:14.Well, as the Prime Minister said, we are going to be looking
:42:15. > :42:16.for a comprehensive free trade agreement with Europe.
:42:17. > :42:19.That's what we will be looking for but beyond that we will look
:42:20. > :42:23.We will be able to hook in, and put our own free trade
:42:24. > :42:25.agreements in place, trade agreements of all shapes
:42:26. > :42:27.and sizes with other economies in the world,
:42:28. > :42:29.bigger economies, the fastest growing economies in the world.
:42:30. > :42:34.OK, well we will come back to a lot of those issues in a moment.
:42:35. > :42:36.Melanie Hurst, a letter has been signed, Brexit is done.
:42:37. > :42:39.Absolutely not. Just beginning.
:42:40. > :42:42.We have got to hold the Government to account, we have got to make sure
:42:43. > :42:45.Brexit is delivered and we have got to make sure our tests that
:42:46. > :42:49.are in place are met to ensure that what we get is the real thing
:42:50. > :42:50.and not a watered-down version of the membership.
:42:51. > :42:53.Have you seen anything to suggest you are not
:42:54. > :43:00.I have reservations on where the red lines are for the Government.
:43:01. > :43:02.The European Union with free trade agreements with the rest
:43:03. > :43:05.of the world do have some stipulations in there
:43:06. > :43:07.that I would like to see the Government say no,
:43:08. > :43:10.For example, allowing the markets to compete
:43:11. > :43:17.I think that really needs protection or we are going to find ourselves
:43:18. > :43:33.OK, all of these issues we are going to talk
:43:34. > :43:35.about because, according to the think tank Demos,
:43:36. > :43:38.of the most vulnerable regions in England to the economic rest
:43:39. > :43:41.of Brexit with a manufacturing sector that could be damaged.
:43:42. > :43:43.That sounds a gloomy outlook but how true is it?
:43:44. > :43:46.We went to meet three north-east firms to see what preparations
:43:47. > :43:50.they have been making for life outside the EU.
:43:51. > :43:52.Based on Teeside, this German-owned factory makes car engine components
:43:53. > :43:54.and it's part of the production process that spans Europe.
:43:55. > :44:04.Its materials come from the rest of the EU while its products
:44:05. > :44:06.end up in vehicles exported back to the continent.
:44:07. > :44:09.The boss warns any Brexit deal involving tariffs or other trade
:44:10. > :44:11.barriers could be bad news for staff here.
:44:12. > :44:14.Our major customers in this country export the majority of the products
:44:15. > :44:16.that we supply ultimately, and so anything that's
:44:17. > :44:18.going to create uncertainty, anything that's going to create
:44:19. > :44:19.delays, anything that will change people's minds
:44:20. > :44:22.about what they are doing in the longer term is
:44:23. > :44:24.going to have a direct impact on this business.
:44:25. > :44:27.Automotive is one of the industries that have made the north-east
:44:28. > :44:29.particularly dependent on EU exports.
:44:30. > :44:31.That's brought concern about what happens if Brexit
:44:32. > :44:37.But this is also a region where most areas voted Leave.
:44:38. > :44:43.The Government promises an ambitious free-trade agreement,
:44:44. > :44:46.but in the week Britain fired the starting gun on EU negotiation,
:44:47. > :44:49.new research says any disruption to exports poses a risk
:44:50. > :44:57.The big factor for the north-east is obviously the automotive sector.
:44:58. > :45:02.Nissan is obviously a massive car plant that is also be supply chain
:45:03. > :45:08.40% of the north-east exports are associated with the car
:45:09. > :45:14.and automotive sector, but apart from that
:45:15. > :45:16.Potential obstacles to the movement of workers
:45:17. > :45:20.This Tyneside software developer has doubled its staff
:45:21. > :45:22.numbers in just one year, and says recruitment
:45:23. > :45:27.of qualified programmers from the rest of the EU is vital.
:45:28. > :45:30.If we are not able to recruit these highly skilled people coming
:45:31. > :45:40.from those markets in a fairly simplistic way, which it is right
:45:41. > :45:44.now for Europe, then we might have to set up places in Europe
:45:45. > :45:46.where we have to employ staff which means those jobs are not
:45:47. > :45:48.coming into Newcastle, that output is not
:45:49. > :45:50.going into the Newcastle and north-east economy.
:45:51. > :45:54.But for other employers, a future outside the EU looks bright.
:45:55. > :45:58.This Northumberland plant supplies specialist piping for industry,
:45:59. > :46:03.it already does a lot of business outside the EU and
:46:04. > :46:10.I think coming out of Europe is going to be a catalyst for us
:46:11. > :46:13.to look at other markets, I would say in the European Union.
:46:14. > :46:16.As well as still concentrating on Europe, I can't see any
:46:17. > :46:21.It's demand supply, we are a service industry as well as supplying
:46:22. > :46:26.Is that your message, that if industry and business
:46:27. > :46:28.is good enough, it can thrive in this new world?
:46:29. > :46:29.I'm certain of that, absolutely certain.
:46:30. > :46:32.Our history, our economy has long revolved around making things
:46:33. > :46:41.Much now depends on keeping that international conveyor belt moving.
:46:42. > :46:46.Matthew Vickers, we obviously want business there that
:46:47. > :46:47.shares your optimism about the future post-Brexit
:46:48. > :46:50.but the vast majority of businesses are concerned.
:46:51. > :46:52.It's just going to make life much more difficult for them.
:46:53. > :46:55.It's a huge change, people are going to be nervous about it,
:46:56. > :47:00.but the reality is we are pulling a chair up at the global trade table
:47:01. > :47:02.and we will be dealing with lots of other partners.
:47:03. > :47:05.I think it is in Europe's interest to find the best possible deal,
:47:06. > :47:08.it's in our interest to find the best possible deal and that's
:47:09. > :47:16.There's very few indications that we won't.
:47:17. > :47:19.It's not necessarily in Europe's interest to offer us tariff free
:47:20. > :47:22.access to the single market though, is it, which is what a lot
:47:23. > :47:25.of those companies want, and equally all those trade deals
:47:26. > :47:26.you are talking about, the negotiations with Europe
:47:27. > :47:29.could drag on beyond two years, the negotiations with the rest
:47:30. > :47:31.of the world could take years upon years, in which case
:47:32. > :47:34.the uncertainty goes and jobs might go with it.
:47:35. > :47:41.There's lots of scaremongering, lots of Doomsday...
:47:42. > :47:44.We thought the sky was going to fall in after the referendum.
:47:45. > :47:47.These are businesses that presumably you trust a lot of the time to know
:47:48. > :47:49.what they are doing, and they are saying,
:47:50. > :47:53.We can bring all sorts of different businesses, you know.
:47:54. > :47:56.We've got Nissan, we've got Toyota, we've got Facebook, we've got
:47:57. > :48:01.In Britain this year, moving forward, they are obviously pretty
:48:02. > :48:03.There's a fantastic opportunity here for business.
:48:04. > :48:05.Yes, it is challenging and scary but there's
:48:06. > :48:12.The worst thing that can happen is people going round down-talking
:48:13. > :48:14.what this region is going to look like after Brexit.
:48:15. > :48:17.Actually we need to be a bit more positive and look for opportunities.
:48:18. > :48:20.Melanie Hurst, will tariffs for some of our exporters, in your view,
:48:21. > :48:23.if we have to come to that, be a price worth paying
:48:24. > :48:29.We won't be paying the contributions that we pay to the European Union
:48:30. > :48:35.now, we won't be beholding to the rules and regulations,
:48:36. > :48:37.particularly around trade which the Labour Party are very
:48:38. > :48:41.The current rules with the European Union and the single
:48:42. > :48:43.market are deeply damaging for the public sector.
:48:44. > :48:45.They leave it at risk of being outsourced elsewhere.
:48:46. > :48:48.You know, those companies will look at the prospect of tariffs and OK
:48:49. > :48:51.that might not happen, I accept that, but they will look
:48:52. > :48:54.at that and think, well that will only mean we can sell less
:48:55. > :48:58.That's really a price worth paying for getting out of the EU?
:48:59. > :49:02.There is no way we are not going to get some kind of deal
:49:03. > :49:05.We buy much more from the European Union, they are not
:49:06. > :49:10.They are also not going to give us an advantageous deal when we have
:49:11. > :49:14.We are not seeking an advantageous deal, we are seeking a mutually
:49:15. > :49:16.beneficial deal that doesn't involve overpayments to part of the club
:49:17. > :49:26.OK, Roberta Blackman-Woods, businesses want certainty of course
:49:27. > :49:29.and they are going to be nervous about this because it does introduce
:49:30. > :49:32.some degree of instability, but all of the evidence to date
:49:33. > :49:34.is that the economy isn't collapsing despite the dire
:49:35. > :49:36.warnings we had during the referendum and post-referendum.
:49:37. > :49:38.Yes, well what companies are saying indeed the reason
:49:39. > :49:41.they are in this region, Hitachi, Nissan, is to get access
:49:42. > :49:44.to those European markets so what we have all got to argue
:49:45. > :49:48.for, and I think actually go into these negotiations positively,
:49:49. > :49:51.is to get a deal that secures tariff-free access to those markets.
:49:52. > :49:52.That's what businesses right across the region
:49:53. > :49:59.I think we all do have to now be positive and to talk up business
:50:00. > :50:03.in the region and to try and secure those European markets for future,
:50:04. > :50:06.but also look more globally and I think we have to do that
:50:07. > :50:15.But would you accept that we will have to make a choice
:50:16. > :50:17.then between controlling immigration and that tariff-free access?
:50:18. > :50:20.Because European Union partners are not going to offer us a deal
:50:21. > :50:26.without freedom of movement of labour, are they?
:50:27. > :50:29.They are not going to say, you control your own immigration
:50:30. > :50:31.and have access to our market, we will have to make a choice.
:50:32. > :50:34.There is certainly going to be difficult negotiations ahead
:50:35. > :50:36.and one of the things I thought your programme earlier
:50:37. > :50:39.showed was that we do need movement of labour to continue to a degree
:50:40. > :50:44.That's a difficult message for a lot of the Labour
:50:45. > :50:45.voters in the referendum, they must have thought
:50:46. > :50:49.I'm not suggesting for a minute that it will be the same
:50:50. > :50:53.as it is now but we do need to have access to those skills on a global
:50:54. > :50:56.basis, and indeed people who want to compete globally
:50:57. > :50:59.Matthew Vickers, Demos suggestion that we are the most vulnerable
:51:00. > :51:04.English region because we are such a big exporter.
:51:05. > :51:07.Theresa May is not going to be able to get single market access
:51:08. > :51:09.for our exporters because she has prioritised control
:51:10. > :51:12.What we are looking for is a comprehensive
:51:13. > :51:16.I'm quite optimistic that is what we are going to get.
:51:17. > :51:18.Let's get her in there, see what she comes out with.
:51:19. > :51:22.I think the reason we are such big exporters to Europe
:51:23. > :51:25.is because the people of the northeast do a damn good
:51:26. > :51:28.job in manufacturing, they do a damn good job for Nissan
:51:29. > :51:32.and that's why regardless of what the setup is, we will do well.
:51:33. > :51:36.OK, Melanie Hurst, you have made it clear that it wants a deal done
:51:37. > :51:39.on what they say we owe them before they will talk about trade.
:51:40. > :51:41.Should we be prepared to pay the EU more money?
:51:42. > :51:45.If you withdraw your membership to the gym, you don't continue
:51:46. > :51:48.to make contributions towards the running of the gym.
:51:49. > :51:52.You do if you use the gym for a bit for your own benefit,
:51:53. > :51:54.which is what the EU will be asking for.
:51:55. > :51:57.If you are a member, but then if you withdraw your membership
:51:58. > :52:03.I'm quite happy for the UK to pay what it is due,
:52:04. > :52:07.but to pay some ridiculous exiting the, you know, totally unreasonable.
:52:08. > :52:12.but to pay some ridiculous exiting fee, you know, totally unreasonable.
:52:13. > :52:16.OK, that depends if you think it is worth it or not.
:52:17. > :52:21.Away from Brexit, it has been a busy week with a public inquiry announced
:52:22. > :52:22.into plans to develop Northumberland County
:52:23. > :52:25.And some positive news about hospitals in Cumbria.
:52:26. > :52:28.There is more on those stories and more in our snappy and currently
:52:29. > :52:38.The body that runs hospitals in Carlisle and Whitehaven has come
:52:39. > :52:47.The North Cumbria NHS Trust had spent four years under extra
:52:48. > :52:49.supervision after it was found to have high death rates.
:52:50. > :52:53.People with mental health conditions should not be forced
:52:54. > :52:56.into face-to-face benefits assessments against doctors'
:52:57. > :52:58.advice according to Bishop Auckland MP Helen Goodman.
:52:59. > :53:01.I had an e-mail this morning from one of my constituents
:53:02. > :53:05.saying her husband had taken his life on Friday.
:53:06. > :53:09.He first came to us in 2016 when his award of ESA was under review.
:53:10. > :53:10.Despite his doctor's protest, he was made
:53:11. > :53:20.Controversial plans to build hundreds of new homes and a retail
:53:21. > :53:23.park on the site of County Hall in Morpeth will be looked
:53:24. > :53:27.Northumberland County Council approved the plans but the final
:53:28. > :53:30.decision will be made by the Local Government Secretary.
:53:31. > :53:32.Finally, North Tyneside MP Mary Glindon is calling for milk
:53:33. > :53:40.to be available to all children in their first year of school.
:53:41. > :53:43.Now to the Government's big idea to streamline the benefits system
:53:44. > :53:46.Universal credit has been dogged by delays
:53:47. > :53:49.but it is finally being rolled out across all of Newcastle.
:53:50. > :53:52.One of the first areas in the country where that has happened.
:53:53. > :53:55.Ministers say it will make life easier for those looking for work
:53:56. > :53:58.but one Tyneside MP says the system is not working and delays are
:53:59. > :54:19.Friends and neighbours, Tracy and Hayley, both share
:54:20. > :54:22.a worry about universal credit, the Government's new method
:54:23. > :54:26.Tracy first claimed universal credit after leaving a job last year,
:54:27. > :54:28.but waiting for a first payment took months, and continuing
:54:29. > :54:30.problems with her claim have left her facing financial hardship.
:54:31. > :54:33.I've gone into arrears with my rent, I owe people money,
:54:34. > :54:38.I owe my family money, and I can't give them money back
:54:39. > :54:42.because I have got no money to give them but now they have
:54:43. > :54:48.It's so degrading, especially when you've worked all your life,
:54:49. > :54:56.Hayley has been told she will have to move from her current benefit
:54:57. > :54:58.to universal credit and she's worried about what that could mean.
:54:59. > :55:10.If I have to go on this, I could end up being homeless.
:55:11. > :55:12.In a strongly-worded submission to an ongoing work and pensions
:55:13. > :55:14.select committee inquiry, Newcastle City Council said that
:55:15. > :55:17.universal credit risks putting some vulnerable residents at risk
:55:18. > :55:31.The submission also condemns the waiting period for making a claim to
:55:32. > :55:36.receiving payments, which is usually around six weeks but often more, the
:55:37. > :55:48.fundamental problem. The council at its housing provider has found that
:55:49. > :55:53.85% of people claiming work in rent arrears. Sometimes it can be longer
:55:54. > :55:57.than six weeks to claim, so people are coming to us for food parcels or
:55:58. > :56:03.crisis support so that has an impact on what we do as an organisation. It
:56:04. > :56:06.has been a disaster in Newcastle and they cannot possibly roll it out
:56:07. > :56:10.across the rest of the country knowing these fundamental flaws in
:56:11. > :56:13.the system exist. The Government says universal credit helps people
:56:14. > :56:30.moving to work faster and stay in work longer
:56:31. > :56:34.than the old system, adding its offering support to those who find
:56:35. > :56:36.themselves in rent arrears. It will make the system far more simple, it
:56:37. > :56:38.is over complex, people don't understand what benefits they are
:56:39. > :56:41.entitled to, it will also encourage people back to work. A lot of people
:56:42. > :56:44.in the old system were afraid they would lose benefits they were
:56:45. > :56:46.entitled to if they went back to work. It will roll out over the
:56:47. > :56:49.coming months and years across other parts of the region and the country,
:56:50. > :56:52.but what happens in Newcastle as a litmus test for how the new benefits
:56:53. > :56:57.system may function elsewhere. Matthew Vickers, we saw two women
:56:58. > :57:00.there under considerable stress over this. This benefit was supposed to
:57:01. > :57:05.make life easier for people claiming it, instead it is causing
:57:06. > :57:12.unacceptable levels of stress and debt. It is heartbreaking to see
:57:13. > :57:17.people in financial hardship that. There is an advance payment you can
:57:18. > :57:23.claim for if you are in hardship, there is an option there but this
:57:24. > :57:27.change simplifies a huge mess of benefits that were all different. It
:57:28. > :57:33.is fair to people paying it and claiming it, it's not about how well
:57:34. > :57:37.you know your way around the system, it will reduce fraud, reduce
:57:38. > :57:42.fair system that will not penalise fair system that will not penalise
:57:43. > :57:46.people for getting off benefits. There are crisis payments available
:57:47. > :57:51.to people in these situations, there will always be problems with any
:57:52. > :57:55.major changes, the principle is right isn't it? Yes, the problem is
:57:56. > :57:59.the Government massively underfunded this whole system and didn't leave
:58:00. > :58:03.enough time to get proper systems in place so we wouldn't have for
:58:04. > :58:08.example the huge delays in processing claims. Not only are
:58:09. > :58:09.people having to wait six weeks, often three months and ending up in
:58:10. > :58:15.huge debt. A lot of people in the huge debt. A lot of people in the
:58:16. > :58:17.rented private sector are losing their homes so this whole system
:58:18. > :58:21.that was supposed to support the most full report is actually
:58:22. > :58:25.attacking them and making large numbers of people homeless. The
:58:26. > :58:29.Government is showing some signs of listening to that because this week
:58:30. > :58:32.they have said they will consider not putting families who could be
:58:33. > :58:38.made homeless into universal credit so they are recognising there are
:58:39. > :58:44.issues. They are tinkering and doing far too little, too late. Some of
:58:45. > :58:49.the people on the lowest incomes who are in work are suffering because of
:58:50. > :58:53.the changes in this benefit. The Chancellor, who is now earning mega
:58:54. > :58:57.millions, cut money from some of the lowest paid workers in this country
:58:58. > :59:01.and that is outrageous. The Government need to reverse those
:59:02. > :59:06.cuts as well as slowing down the roll-out until they can get a proper
:59:07. > :59:13.system in place. Melanie Hurst, I would ask for the view of Ukip but
:59:14. > :59:20.as of this week you have no MPs laughed so no want to fight it in
:59:21. > :59:26.Parliament. If someone for instance comes to you with a problem, what
:59:27. > :59:30.can you could do about it? I personally work with individuals who
:59:31. > :59:34.are in receipt of welfare, and in the former life I worked in the
:59:35. > :59:41.old-fashioned dole office. What is your view of the way the system is?
:59:42. > :59:46.I think the austerity measures went too far. For me I don't think the
:59:47. > :59:50.argument is the welfare system is too generous, I think the cost of
:59:51. > :59:56.living is too high and wages are too low. Having spent 12 months trying
:59:57. > :00:01.to live on welfare personally, it is not generous at all. If you are used
:00:02. > :00:05.yourself in that position, the time yourself in that position, the time
:00:06. > :00:09.delays add unnecessary stress and you spend the rest of your time
:00:10. > :00:14.trying to play catch up. It is not fair and it has been badly
:00:15. > :00:17.out elsewhere in the country with out elsewhere in the country with
:00:18. > :00:23.the problems there have been in Newcastle. The grass is always
:00:24. > :00:27.greener. In a former life I used to manage shops for living and I had
:00:28. > :00:31.somebody who worked for me, a single mum who worked very hard, one of the
:00:32. > :00:37.most energetic people I had ever employed. I wanted her to a
:00:38. > :00:38.that supervisor because it would that supervisor because it would
:00:39. > :00:43.have undermined her benefits. This have undermined her benefits. This
:00:44. > :00:49.system is fair, helping people to go to work. I have got to get out of
:00:50. > :01:03.the programme I'm afraid, that's about it for this week. We are off
:01:04. > :01:06.So, what will be the effect of new tax and benefit changes
:01:07. > :01:10.Will the Government's grand trade tour reap benefits?
:01:11. > :01:12.And are the Lib Dems really going to replace Labour,
:01:13. > :01:24.To answer that last question, I'm joined by from Salford
:01:25. > :01:28.by the Lib Dem MP, Alistair Carmichael.
:01:29. > :01:38.Michael Fallon sirs the Lib Dems will replace Labour. How long will
:01:39. > :01:43.it take? We will have to wait and see. Anyone who thinks you can
:01:44. > :01:49.predict the future is engaged in a dodgy game. I have been campaigning
:01:50. > :01:54.with the Liberal Democrats in Manchester... You must not
:01:55. > :02:01.mention... You know the by-election rules. It is only an illustration.
:02:02. > :02:11.Across false ways of the country, the Liberal Democrats are back in
:02:12. > :02:15.business -- across whole swathes of the country. Part of the reason why
:02:16. > :02:20.we are getting a good response is because the Labour Party under
:02:21. > :02:25.Jeremy Corbyn has taken such a self-destructive path. Even if you
:02:26. > :02:28.do pretty well in the local elections, it you have to make up
:02:29. > :02:35.lost ground from the time you did very well in previous times, you
:02:36. > :02:40.used to have 4700 councillors. It will take you a long while to get
:02:41. > :02:43.back to that. You will get no argument from me that we have a
:02:44. > :02:48.mountain to climb. What I'm telling you is, and if this is not just in
:02:49. > :02:54.this round of elections, it is in the other by-elections in places
:02:55. > :02:59.like Richmond, and in by-elections write the length and breadth of the
:03:00. > :03:02.country since last June, the Liberal Democrats are taking seats from the
:03:03. > :03:10.Labour Party under Conservative Party, and not just in Brexit phobic
:03:11. > :03:14.areas. Not just in Remain areas. But in places like Sunderland as well
:03:15. > :03:21.which voted very heavily for Brexit. In fact, that vote was in large part
:03:22. > :03:25.as well a protest against the way in which the Labour Party really has
:03:26. > :03:30.taken these areas for granted over the years. That is why the ground is
:03:31. > :03:36.fertile for us. In the local elections which is what we are
:03:37. > :03:40.discussing today, why would anybody vote for the Liberal Democrats if
:03:41. > :03:48.they believed in Brexit? Mr Farren has said he wants to reverse works.
:03:49. > :03:52.If you are Brexit supporter and you are considering how to cast your
:03:53. > :03:56.vote, first of all, I think you will be looking at the quality of
:03:57. > :04:00.representation you can get for your local area and you are right, we
:04:01. > :04:09.have a lot of ground to recoup from previous elections, we lost 124
:04:10. > :04:14.seats, communities have now had a few years to reflect on the quality
:04:15. > :04:17.of service they have been able to get and they have missed the very
:04:18. > :04:23.effective liberal Democrat councillors they have had. This is
:04:24. > :04:28.not just about whether you are a believer or remainer, ultimately,
:04:29. > :04:33.that is an issue we are going to have to settle and we will settle it
:04:34. > :04:38.not in the way the Government is having by dictating the terms of the
:04:39. > :04:42.debate, but by bringing the whole country together. I think that is
:04:43. > :04:47.something you can only do if, as we have suggested, you give the people
:04:48. > :04:50.the opportunity to have a say on the deal when Theresa May eventually
:04:51. > :04:55.produces it. The only way you could really replace Labour in the
:04:56. > :05:01.foreseeable future would be if a big chunk of the centre and right of the
:05:02. > :05:06.Labour Party came over and join due in some kind of new social
:05:07. > :05:11.democratic alliance. -- joined you. There is no sign that will happen? I
:05:12. > :05:14.do not see whether common purpose is anymore holding the Labour Party
:05:15. > :05:19.together. That is for people in the Labour Party to make their own
:05:20. > :05:27.decisions. Use what happened to the Labour Party in Scotland. -- you
:05:28. > :05:32.saw. Politics moved on and left them behind and they were decimated as a
:05:33. > :05:36.consequence of that. So was your party. It is possible the same thing
:05:37. > :05:41.could happen to the Labour Party and the rest of the UK. Politics is
:05:42. > :05:48.moving on and they are coming up with 1970s solutions to problems in
:05:49. > :05:53.2017. Alistair Carmichael, thanks for joining us. Let us have a look
:05:54. > :05:59.at some of the tax and benefit changes coming up this week. The tax
:06:00. > :06:04.changes first of all. The personal allowance is going to rise to
:06:05. > :06:09.?11,500, the level at which you start to pay tax. The higher rate
:06:10. > :06:15.threshold, where you start to play at 40%, that will rise from
:06:16. > :06:24.currently ?43,400, rising up to 40 5000. -- pay. Benefit changes,
:06:25. > :06:30.freeze on working age benefits, removal of the family element of tax
:06:31. > :06:35.credits and universal credit, that is a technical change but quite an
:06:36. > :06:41.impact. The child element of tax credit is going to be limited to two
:06:42. > :06:48.children on any new claims. The Resolution Foundation has crunched
:06:49. > :06:55.the numbers and they discovered that when you take the tax and benefit
:06:56. > :07:03.changes together, 80% go to better off households and the poorest third
:07:04. > :07:07.or worse. What help -- what happened to help the just about managing? The
:07:08. > :07:12.Resolution Foundation exists to find the worst possible statistics... It
:07:13. > :07:18.is not clear the figures are wrong? They are fairly recent figures and I
:07:19. > :07:22.have not seen analysis by other organisations. The Adam Smith
:07:23. > :07:26.Institute will probably have some question marks over it. Nobody
:07:27. > :07:30.should be surprised a Tory government is trying to make the
:07:31. > :07:37.state smaller... And the poor poorer. The system is propped up by
:07:38. > :07:40.better off people and so it will be those people who will be slightly
:07:41. > :07:48.less heavily taxed as you make the state smaller. Theresa May will have
:07:49. > :07:52.to stop just talking about the just about managing. And some of her
:07:53. > :07:56.other language and the role of the government and the state when she
:07:57. > :08:01.sounded quite positive... She sounded like a big government
:08:02. > :08:05.conservative not small government. In every set piece occasion, she
:08:06. > :08:13.says, it is time to look at the good the government can do. That is not
:08:14. > :08:17.what you heard from Mrs Thatcher. Tony Blair and Gordon Brown would
:08:18. > :08:22.not have dared to say it either even if they believed it. It raises a
:08:23. > :08:28.much bigger question which is, as well as whether this is a set of
:08:29. > :08:33.progressive measures, the Resolution Foundation constantly argued when
:08:34. > :08:36.George Osborne announced his budget measures as progressive when they
:08:37. > :08:40.were regressive when they checked out the figures, but also how this
:08:41. > :08:45.government was going to meet the demand for public services when it
:08:46. > :08:49.has ruled out virtually any tax rises that you would normally do
:08:50. > :08:55.now, including National Insurance. There are a whole range of nightmare
:08:56. > :08:59.issues on Philip Hammond's in-tray in relation to tax. The Resolution
:09:00. > :09:04.Foundation figures do not include the rise in the minimum wage which
:09:05. > :09:08.has just gone under way. They do not include the tax free childcare from
:09:09. > :09:13.the end of April, the extra 15 hours of free childcare from September.
:09:14. > :09:17.Even when you include these, it does not look like it would offset the
:09:18. > :09:22.losses of the poorest households. Doesn't that have to be a problem
:09:23. > :09:25.for Theresa May? It really is a problem especially when her
:09:26. > :09:31.narrative and indeed entire purpose in government is for that just about
:09:32. > :09:36.managing. What Mrs May still has which is exactly a problem they have
:09:37. > :09:38.at the budget and the Autumn Statement is that they are still
:09:39. > :09:45.saddled with George Osborne's massive ring fences on tax cuts and
:09:46. > :09:49.spending. They have to go through with the tax cut for the middle
:09:50. > :09:52.classes by pushing up the higher rate threshold which is absolutely
:09:53. > :09:57.going to do nothing for the just about managing. When they try to
:09:58. > :10:00.mitigate that, for example, in the Autumn Statement, Philip Hammond was
:10:01. > :10:05.told to come up with more money to ease the cuts in tax credits, came
:10:06. > :10:11.up with 350 million, an absolute... It is billions and billions
:10:12. > :10:14.involved. Marginal adjustment. A huge problem with the actual tax and
:10:15. > :10:19.benefit changes going on with what Mrs May as saying. The only way to
:10:20. > :10:23.fix it is coming up with more money to alleviate that. Where will you
:10:24. > :10:27.find it? Philip Hammond tried in the Budget with the National Insurance
:10:28. > :10:33.rises but it lasted six and a half days. I was told that it was one of
:10:34. > :10:38.the reasons why the Chancellor looked kindly on the idea of an
:10:39. > :10:43.early election because he wanted to get rid of what he regards as an
:10:44. > :10:47.albatross around his neck, the Tory manifesto 2015, no increase in
:10:48. > :10:53.income tax, no increase in VAT, no increase in National Insurance, fuel
:10:54. > :10:56.duty was not cut when fuel prices were falling so it is hardly going
:10:57. > :11:03.to rise now when they are rising again. This is why, I suggest, they
:11:04. > :11:07.end up in these incredibly complicated what we used to call
:11:08. > :11:12.stealth taxes as ways of trying to raise money and invariably a blow up
:11:13. > :11:17.in your face. Stealth taxes never end up being stealthy. It is part of
:11:18. > :11:23.the narrative that budget begins to fall apart within hours. You have to
:11:24. > :11:26.have sympathy, as Tom says, with Philip Hammond. No wonder he would
:11:27. > :11:30.like to be liberated. The early election will not happen. The best
:11:31. > :11:35.argument I have heard for an early election. The tax and spend about at
:11:36. > :11:40.the last election was a disaster partly because the Conservatives
:11:41. > :11:45.feared they would lose. Maybe they could be a bit more candid about the
:11:46. > :11:51.need to put up some taxes to pay for public services and it is very
:11:52. > :11:54.interesting what you picked up on Philip Hammond because he is
:11:55. > :12:02.trapped. So constrained about... You can also reopen the Ring fencing and
:12:03. > :12:07.spending and the obvious place to go is the triple lock, OAP spending.
:12:08. > :12:13.Another case for an election. He cannot undo the promise to that
:12:14. > :12:17.demographic. We will not get to 2020 without something breaking. The
:12:18. > :12:24.Prime Minister, the trade secretary and Mr Hammond, they are off to
:12:25. > :12:30.India, the Far East, talking up trade with these countries, I do not
:12:31. > :12:35.know if any of you are going? Sadly not. Will it produce dividends? The
:12:36. > :12:42.prime Minster is going somewhere too. No, it will not, the honest
:12:43. > :12:45.answer. No one will do a trade deal with us because we cannot do one
:12:46. > :12:48.because we are still in the EU and they need to know what our terms
:12:49. > :12:53.will be with the EU first before they can work out how they want to
:12:54. > :12:57.trade with us. This is vital preparatory work. Ministers always
:12:58. > :13:01.go somewhere in recess, it is what they do. We will not see anything in
:13:02. > :13:07.a hurry, we will not see anything for two years. They have to do it.
:13:08. > :13:13.Whatever side of the joint you are on, Brexit, remain, we need to get
:13:14. > :13:16.out there. -- the argument. We should have been doing this the day
:13:17. > :13:20.after the referendum result. It is now several months down the line and
:13:21. > :13:26.they need to step it up, not the opposite. You can make some informal
:13:27. > :13:31.talks, I guess. You can say, Britain is open for business. There is a
:13:32. > :13:36.symbolism to it. What a lot of energy sucked up into this.
:13:37. > :13:42.Parliament is not sitting so they might as well start talking. We have
:13:43. > :13:47.run out of energy and time. That is it for today. We are off for the
:13:48. > :13:51.Easter recess, back in two weeks' time. If it is Sunday, it is the
:13:52. > :14:20.Sunday Politics. Unless it is that used to recess! -- Easter recess.
:14:21. > :14:23.Marine Le Pen has her eyes on the French presidency.
:14:24. > :14:26.As she tries to distance herself from her party's controversial past,
:14:27. > :14:51.we follow the money and ask, "Who's funding her campaign?"
:14:52. > :14:59.I think I've died and gone to heaven. Saluti. Chin-chin.
:15:00. > :15:04.So, can anybody speak Italian? No. Non parlo italiano.