0:00:35 > 0:00:37Morning everyone, and welcome to the Sunday Politics.
0:00:37 > 0:00:38I'm Sarah Smith.
0:00:38 > 0:00:41And this is your guide to all the big stories that
0:00:41 > 0:00:45are shaping politics this weekend, and a few of the smaller ones too.
0:00:45 > 0:00:48Philip Hammond is getting ready to deliver his latest Budget
0:00:48 > 0:00:50on Wednesday and he's not short of advice - to spend more,
0:00:50 > 0:00:53show restraint, even to stop being an Eyore -
0:00:53 > 0:00:58but can he change the direction of the country and his government?
0:00:58 > 0:01:00Conservative Party darling Jacob Rees-Mogg has
0:01:00 > 0:01:02some advice of his own.
0:01:02 > 0:01:04He thinks the Chancellor is being far too gloomy about Brexit
0:01:04 > 0:01:08- he joins me live to explain why.
0:01:08 > 0:01:12The former Leave campaign leader, Gisela Stuart, will be here debating
0:01:12 > 0:01:15with pro-EU campaigner Alastair Campbell, after taking
0:01:15 > 0:01:17a trip to her native Germany to speak to businesses
0:01:17 > 0:01:21about Brexit.
0:01:21 > 0:01:24And, as we wait to find out what's on the menu for this week's budget,
0:01:24 > 0:01:26we're in a diner off the A1 in Peterborough,
0:01:26 > 0:01:29finding out who people most trust with the economy -
0:01:29 > 0:01:36Philip Hammond or John McDonnell?
0:01:36 > 0:01:38Here, new Metro trains or cash for schools -
0:01:38 > 0:01:40what might the budget provide for the North?
0:01:40 > 0:01:42And the North East councils which want to
0:01:42 > 0:01:43deliver lower gas and electricity bills in their areas.
0:01:49 > 0:01:50All that coming up in the programme.
0:01:50 > 0:01:53And with me for for all of it, three journalists who've promised
0:01:53 > 0:01:57not to show off like Michael Gove by using any long economicky words -
0:01:57 > 0:02:00although I'm not sure they really know that many anyway -
0:02:00 > 0:02:03it's Tom Newton Dunn, Gaby Hinsliff and Iain Martin.
0:02:03 > 0:02:06Let's take a look at the big political stories making the news
0:02:06 > 0:02:08this Sunday morning, and as you might expect there's
0:02:08 > 0:02:10plenty of speculation about what might or not might be
0:02:10 > 0:02:13in Philip Hammond's Budget.
0:02:13 > 0:02:15The Chancellor is promising a big investment in new technology,
0:02:15 > 0:02:19including driverless cars - which could be on the road by 2021.
0:02:19 > 0:02:22He's been interviewed in the Sunday Times,
0:02:22 > 0:02:25where he talks about plans to reach the target of building
0:02:25 > 0:02:28300,000 homes every year, or the equivalent of a city
0:02:28 > 0:02:30the size of Leeds.
0:02:30 > 0:02:33That paper speculates that he's attempting to turn from "fiscal
0:02:33 > 0:02:35Phil" into "hopeful Hammond" as he tries to set out
0:02:35 > 0:02:38a vision for the country, not just a list of numbers.
0:02:38 > 0:02:41The Sunday Telegraph thinks that Mr Hammond is planning to offer
0:02:41 > 0:02:44a pay rise to nurses as part of a bid to take on Labour.
0:02:44 > 0:02:47But that hasn't impressed Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell.
0:02:47 > 0:02:50He's spoken to a number of papers and is calling for an emergency
0:02:50 > 0:02:53budget to invest in public services and help struggling households.
0:02:53 > 0:02:56So that's a taste of what you might hear on Wednesday and Mr Hammond
0:02:56 > 0:02:59and Mr McDonnell have both been appearing this morning
0:02:59 > 0:03:03on the Andrew Marr Show.
0:03:03 > 0:03:05I think Britain has a very bright future ahead of it,
0:03:05 > 0:03:08and we have to embrace the opportunities that
0:03:08 > 0:03:10a post-Brexit world will offer.
0:03:10 > 0:03:12They will be opportunities that are based on huge change,
0:03:12 > 0:03:16huge technological evolution.
0:03:16 > 0:03:19It's not always going to be easy, but the British people have shown
0:03:19 > 0:03:21time and time again that we're up for these challenges.
0:03:21 > 0:03:25For many people out there, this is a depression.
0:03:25 > 0:03:28We've had people whose wages have been cut by 10%.
0:03:28 > 0:03:30Nurses, for example.
0:03:30 > 0:03:33We've had people who are now...
0:03:33 > 0:03:371.25 million food parcels handed out in the sixth richest
0:03:37 > 0:03:39country in the world.
0:03:39 > 0:03:46That's what I call a recession for large numbers of people.
0:03:46 > 0:03:52We will be talking about Labour and their economic policies in a moment,
0:03:52 > 0:03:56but let's start with what we might expect from the budget. We will talk
0:03:56 > 0:04:00to our panel of political observers. Philip Hammond is under pressure to
0:04:00 > 0:04:05set out a bold vision and reset the government's programme. Can we
0:04:05 > 0:04:11expect that?No, we can't. We have heard enough from the Chancellor
0:04:11 > 0:04:14across various broadcast and his article in the Sunday Times. I think
0:04:14 > 0:04:23we will not be getting a bold budget. His precise words short... A
0:04:23 > 0:04:26short time ago were a balanced budget. Some Tory hearts will think.
0:04:26 > 0:04:31They desperately want something to go out and shout about, something to
0:04:31 > 0:04:35capture people's imagination, and do big and bold things, like how on
0:04:35 > 0:04:41earth are they going to build those new 300,000 houses a year? There are
0:04:41 > 0:04:48good reasons why he has chosen what appears to be a pretty staid,
0:04:48 > 0:04:53Conservative budget, and that is that they are probably unable to get
0:04:53 > 0:04:56anything bold through Parliament. His capital is so low among Tory
0:04:56 > 0:05:05MPs. If you have a minority government, it is tricky.We have
0:05:05 > 0:05:08seen ministers on programmes like this in the last few weeks putting
0:05:08 > 0:05:13in the bids for what they would like spending on, whether it be payment
0:05:13 > 0:05:17for nurses or parliament. Would he struggled to get something radical
0:05:17 > 0:05:22through the Commons?Big ideas cost money. That's the problem. Bold
0:05:22 > 0:05:29ideas are controversial. In some ways, Tory MPs are asking their
0:05:29 > 0:05:33Chancellor to do the impossible. Government is already doing
0:05:33 > 0:05:38something big and bold, which is Brexit. That has implications for
0:05:38 > 0:05:42how much money is available, how many risks you want to take with
0:05:42 > 0:05:47everything else. What is crucial is that he demonstrates a reputation
0:05:47 > 0:05:52for competence. The reputation that the Conservative government has for
0:05:52 > 0:05:57economic competence, that many people prefer them to Labour on the
0:05:57 > 0:06:01issue of economic competence. The worst thing he could do is come up
0:06:01 > 0:06:06with a big, bold idea that unravelled quickly. What they
0:06:06 > 0:06:10absolutely don't want is to come up with an exciting idea that falls
0:06:10 > 0:06:15apart three days after the budget. He is under pressure from
0:06:15 > 0:06:18Brexiteers, who are suspicious of him. Does he have to offer them
0:06:18 > 0:06:24something?Part of his problem is he has to offer so many different
0:06:24 > 0:06:27people different things. This is Philip Hammond trying to be and
0:06:27 > 0:06:35dynamic.It is hard to tell sometimes.At least in theoretical
0:06:35 > 0:06:44terms. His longer-term difficulty is that, if you look at the economic
0:06:44 > 0:06:49cycle, we are getting to a point where we are probably overdue, if
0:06:49 > 0:06:55you put Brexit to one side, overdue some kind of correction or downturn,
0:06:55 > 0:07:00if you look what has happened to asset prices globally. What will be
0:07:00 > 0:07:05worrying for the Treasury is, just as everyone is saying we should turn
0:07:05 > 0:07:11on the taps and build this or that, we might be at the top of a cycle,
0:07:11 > 0:07:15and the Treasury will want to lose something in the armoury in terms of
0:07:15 > 0:07:19probably growing the deficit if there are economic difficulties in
0:07:19 > 0:07:24the next two years, and then there is Brexit as well.It sounds
0:07:24 > 0:07:29impossible.I think so. Talking to his friends and colleagues over the
0:07:29 > 0:07:34last few days, he had to make a call, which was precisely how much
0:07:34 > 0:07:40can I get away with, with my political capital being as low as it
0:07:40 > 0:07:46is, with the mixed problems he had at the last budget, and a lot of the
0:07:46 > 0:07:51party disliking his approach to Brexit. He is damned if he is,
0:07:51 > 0:08:00damned if he doesn't. Universal Credit, we are expecting a reduction
0:08:00 > 0:08:07in the time it takes to wait, business rates, affected by high
0:08:07 > 0:08:12inflation... I think we will see a problem fixing budget which will
0:08:12 > 0:08:17probably do quite a lot of important spadework in many areas.We will
0:08:17 > 0:08:22pick up on some of this later in the programme.
0:08:22 > 0:08:25Let's speak now to the Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg, this week
0:08:25 > 0:08:27he helpfully launched an alternative "budget for Brexit" and advised
0:08:27 > 0:08:29the Chancellor to be less gloomy about the consequences
0:08:29 > 0:08:33of leaving the EU.
0:08:33 > 0:08:37Thank you for joining us. Your alternative budget is pretty
0:08:37 > 0:08:46radical. Almost half corporation tax, Cap Stamp duty to help the
0:08:46 > 0:08:51London market. It seems you are advocating the opposite from what we
0:08:51 > 0:08:55will hear from your Chancellor on Wednesday.There are two parts to
0:08:55 > 0:08:59the proposals I suggested. One is that we should show that after we
0:08:59 > 0:09:05have left the European Union, the UK is open to the rest of the world. It
0:09:05 > 0:09:09is about opening up to the rest of the world. Secondly, looking at the
0:09:09 > 0:09:14modelling that has been done by the Treasury and some other forecasters,
0:09:14 > 0:09:18which has been so comprehensively wrong. The forecasts made about what
0:09:18 > 0:09:26would happen after Brexit have turned out to be hopelessly false.
0:09:26 > 0:09:31The team at Cardiff University have done some modelling based on the
0:09:31 > 0:09:34classical economic principles and what happens if you move to free
0:09:34 > 0:09:39trade that would be very positive for the economy.You are predicting
0:09:39 > 0:09:47a Brexit dividend of £135 billion, which sounds fantastic. Why are you
0:09:47 > 0:09:52right, and everybody else, including the Bank of England and the
0:09:52 > 0:09:55Institute for Fiscal Studies, why are they all wrong?It depends on
0:09:55 > 0:10:00the type of modelling. The modelling that have been done by the Treasury
0:10:00 > 0:10:04have been based on gravity models, which work on the basis of the
0:10:04 > 0:10:08nearness of the market and the size of the economy you are trading with.
0:10:08 > 0:10:14These have been wrong in the past. They predicted that if we joined the
0:10:14 > 0:10:20euro, trade would grow by 300%. That was then revised down to 200%, but
0:10:20 > 0:10:27it is fantasyland. The model I am working on, by Sir Patrick Minford,
0:10:27 > 0:10:35who has a record of getting these things right. He was right about the
0:10:35 > 0:10:39exchange rate mechanism, right about the euro.Being right in the past
0:10:39 > 0:10:44doesn't mean you are right about the future. Why do you think the
0:10:44 > 0:10:48Treasury will not pick up the same numbers, if this is so obvious to
0:10:48 > 0:10:53you?I think the Treasury was humiliated by the errors in its
0:10:53 > 0:10:59forecast prior to Brexit, and is trying to defend its position. The
0:10:59 > 0:11:02short-term economic consequences of a vote to leave was one of the most
0:11:02 > 0:11:08dishonest documents to come out of the Treasury, purely a piece of
0:11:08 > 0:11:11political propaganda. They are wounded by that and sticking to the
0:11:11 > 0:11:16same script, rather than looking at other forecasts and other experts.
0:11:16 > 0:11:20You think the governor of the Bank of England is an enemy of Brexit,
0:11:20 > 0:11:25and it sounds like you think the Treasury is opposed to it. As the
0:11:25 > 0:11:30Chancellor fallen under their spell as well, and been persuaded to be an
0:11:30 > 0:11:36enemy of Brexit?I have admiration the Chancellor, but George Osborne,
0:11:36 > 0:11:41his predecessor, was the architect of Project Fear. He was too close to
0:11:41 > 0:11:45the Bank of England and lost his independence. That is what needs to
0:11:45 > 0:11:52change. It is an opportunity in the budget for Philip Hammond to show he
0:11:52 > 0:11:56is putting aside the Treasury's mistakes in the past. It is very
0:11:56 > 0:12:01encouraging what he is saying this morning, about a more positive
0:12:01 > 0:12:06approach to Brexit.Lord Lawson has accused Philip Hammond of being very
0:12:06 > 0:12:13close to sabotage on Brexit. He says we need a can-do man at the Treasury
0:12:13 > 0:12:17and not a prophet of doom.I think that Philip Hammond is an
0:12:17 > 0:12:21exceptionally intelligent man, a very thoughtful man. It is not a bad
0:12:21 > 0:12:26thing to have a Chancellor who is serious minded and steady, rather
0:12:26 > 0:12:33than one who is a showman and uses the Exchequer to interfere in
0:12:33 > 0:12:37absolutely everything.I have a lot of confidence in the Chancellor.
0:12:37 > 0:12:42When you launched your budget for Brexit, you said the government has
0:12:42 > 0:12:48to deliver the £350 million for the NHS that was delivered during the
0:12:48 > 0:12:51referendum, even though you didn't think that promise should have been
0:12:51 > 0:12:56made. Is that something they now need to deliver wrong?It is. This
0:12:56 > 0:13:02only happens once we have left. Politicians have to recognise that
0:13:02 > 0:13:09voters don't look at the small print of electoral policies. If you put
0:13:09 > 0:13:14£350 million on the side of a bus and say it may be available for the
0:13:14 > 0:13:20NHS, it is reasonable for people to think that is a promise. Brexit was
0:13:20 > 0:13:26won by the Leave campaign, so it it is important that they deliver on
0:13:26 > 0:13:30that promise. Politicians must keep faith with voters and deliver on
0:13:30 > 0:13:35implied promises, as well as ones that are set out in detail.The
0:13:35 > 0:13:39Cabinet will move on to talk about the Brexit bill this week, and we
0:13:39 > 0:13:44understand they may need to come up with more money to satisfy EU
0:13:44 > 0:13:47demands. The more money spent on that is less money available for
0:13:47 > 0:13:53things like spending on the NHS. Are you worried about the size of the
0:13:53 > 0:14:00exit bill?You have your finger on the important point. The government
0:14:00 > 0:14:04will have to choose whether to give lots of money to the European Union,
0:14:04 > 0:14:09or whether to spend money on UK public services, and that will be
0:14:09 > 0:14:13part of the negotiation. On all these issues, it comes down to
0:14:13 > 0:14:19choice is the government makes. I would encourage the government to
0:14:19 > 0:14:22choose our own domestic public services rather than expensive
0:14:22 > 0:14:26schemes in continent or Europe.Why are you advocating that the
0:14:26 > 0:14:36government should spend up to £2.5 billion on a no deal scenario?
0:14:36 > 0:14:41It is important that we are ready to leave in the event of no deal. If we
0:14:41 > 0:14:47left with no deal we would on current figures still be saving the
0:14:47 > 0:14:53remains of 18 billion so we would be saving 15 and a half billion against
0:14:53 > 0:14:58paying for the financial framework. To show we're ready on day one would
0:14:58 > 0:15:06be money well spent and most would be needed any way. We need to have
0:15:06 > 0:15:10new customs arrangements in place even if it is not for a no deal
0:15:10 > 0:15:13situation.There are suggestions that the Government might back down
0:15:13 > 0:15:17on the idea of putting the time and date of leaving the EU on the face
0:15:17 > 0:15:21of the bill. Would you be Exxon certained if that was -- concerned
0:15:21 > 0:15:29if that was remove prd the bill?It is in Article 50, unless Article 50
0:15:29 > 0:15:39is extended by the Council of Europe we leave on 20th March 2019 and it
0:15:39 > 0:15:43makes accepts that should be the same in -- sense that should be in
0:15:43 > 0:15:47same in domestic law. But that is a secondary concern from my point of
0:15:47 > 0:15:52view. It is important that we leave on that date.Stay there if you
0:15:52 > 0:15:53would.
0:15:53 > 0:15:55We're joined in the studio by the former minister
0:15:55 > 0:15:56Stephen Hammond.
0:15:56 > 0:15:59He's no relation to the Chancellor, but he is a member
0:15:59 > 0:16:02of the Treasury Select Committee and he's one of the Tory MPs named
0:16:02 > 0:16:04as "Brexit mutineers" by the Daily Telegraph
0:16:04 > 0:16:06this week - lucky him.
0:16:06 > 0:16:12I'm assured you're no relation to the Chancellor. Let's just pick up
0:16:12 > 0:16:20on what Jacob Rees Mogg was saying. How important is it to you as a
0:16:20 > 0:16:25rebel that the Government does put the date on.I agree with Jacob it
0:16:25 > 0:16:31is in the Article 50 process, the key reason it is important is the
0:16:31 > 0:16:34negotiations look like they're going to be tricky and longer than we
0:16:34 > 0:16:41expected and it may well be that we are still negotiating up until March
0:16:41 > 0:16:462019. We could have a short couple of weeks period of extension. Why do
0:16:46 > 0:16:51harm to the economy by falling out on a precise time? If those
0:16:51 > 0:16:55negotiations need to be extended. They won't go on for more than a
0:16:55 > 0:16:59couple of weeks, because there will be elections in Europe in June 2019
0:16:59 > 0:17:04and there is no chance of a new commission or Parliament dealing
0:17:04 > 0:17:11with this. Giving it flexibility and with this flexibility the government
0:17:11 > 0:17:14said it wants flexibility in negotiations, why give all the
0:17:14 > 0:17:20advantage to the other side? Part of that was evidenced yesterday by
0:17:20 > 0:17:24somebody suggesting they will ask for the Margaret Thatcher rebate to
0:17:24 > 0:17:29be suspended. That is as a result of putting the date on the bill.You
0:17:29 > 0:17:32did not agree with the Brexit committee and think it is important
0:17:32 > 0:17:37that we set the date and time?I think it is perfectly reasonable to
0:17:37 > 0:17:42set the date and time and I think these negotiations fill the time
0:17:42 > 0:17:47available. The United States and Australia agreed a free trade deal
0:17:47 > 0:17:53between April 2003 and February 2004. These things don't need to be
0:17:53 > 0:17:56interm Knabl if both sides want to agree. I think the British
0:17:56 > 0:18:02electorate would be very concerned if nearly three years after the vote
0:18:02 > 0:18:05to leave, we still hadn't left. I think most people expected that we
0:18:05 > 0:18:09would have left by now. The negotiations realistically to get
0:18:09 > 0:18:13through the approval of the European Parliament and so on need to be
0:18:13 > 0:18:18completed by at the end of next year, going up to the last minute I
0:18:18 > 0:18:22don't think is real is tick.To move on to talk about a trade deal and
0:18:22 > 0:18:29getting that done, the EU need to agree to move on and we need to
0:18:29 > 0:18:31settle the divorce, cabinet are going to be talking about the amount
0:18:31 > 0:18:38that needs to be spent on that, Stephen what manned, are you happy
0:18:38 > 0:18:42for the Government to offer more?I hope that the Government will stick
0:18:42 > 0:18:48to the Florence speech in terms of ensuring that we fulfil our
0:18:48 > 0:18:53liabilities and obligations. I'm not clear exactly whether that is 20
0:18:53 > 0:18:56billion or 40 billion and I'm not sure the government is. If part of
0:18:56 > 0:19:00the divorce bill is then some settlement for getting the trade
0:19:00 > 0:19:06deal, we will need to examine that carefully.Jacob Rees Mogg, is this
0:19:06 > 0:19:11that might spark another war in the party if the cabinet suggest they're
0:19:11 > 0:19:18prepared to pay more?I think we need to go back to what you said,
0:19:18 > 0:19:28that the - the EU said they want us to settle the money first. The
0:19:28 > 0:19:31Government doesn't need to follow that. They need our money. If we
0:19:31 > 0:19:39don't pay any money for the final 21 months of the framework, the EU has
0:19:39 > 0:19:45about 20 billion pounds gap in its finances and it has no legal
0:19:45 > 0:19:49requirement to borrow. So it insolvents or the Germans and the
0:19:49 > 0:19:52others pay more. So our position on money is very strong and we
0:19:52 > 0:19:57shouldn't fall into the trap of thinking just because Mr Barnier
0:19:57 > 0:20:03said it it is as if he has received tablets of stone like Moses, he has
0:20:03 > 0:20:11not.There is a sense that the Government feels a mo generous offer
0:20:11 > 0:20:15would set a good tone, the kind of approach that Jacob Rees Mogg
0:20:15 > 0:20:20suggests would not make for smooth relations.It probably wouldn't. But
0:20:20 > 0:20:25we have to be clear what we are paying for and what we are getting.
0:20:25 > 0:20:31No one is suggesting we should hand over money without proper scrutiny.
0:20:31 > 0:20:36It may be appropriate to put money to facilitate international trade to
0:20:36 > 0:20:41secure jobs. We have to be careful about the analysis about what the
0:20:41 > 0:20:47scale and size of Brexit dividend is and the size of payments will be.
0:20:47 > 0:20:53You mustn't confuse gross and net and there is disagreement about some
0:20:53 > 0:20:59of the numbers.On that, Jacob Rees Mogg in his budget for Brexit
0:20:59 > 0:21:04suggests in five years time we would have a 135 billion Brexit bonus. Do
0:21:04 > 0:21:11you think it is real is tick.He is using some analysis that has some
0:21:11 > 0:21:18flaws. It is predicting a price drop in the United Kingdom of 10%. Tariff
0:21:18 > 0:21:25drops will only be 3 or 4%. It is predicting huge productivity gains,
0:21:25 > 0:21:30the likes of which we have not seen in 20 years. Thirdly, despite his
0:21:30 > 0:21:35view on modellers there is evidence that they weren't and if you go into
0:21:35 > 0:21:42the detail of the analysis, some of the data is 14 years out of date.
0:21:42 > 0:21:47Jacob Rees Mogg, you're being hopelessly optimistic?I don't think
0:21:47 > 0:21:52that right. I think the fall in prices comes because you make the
0:21:52 > 0:21:56economy more competitive and you take away tariffs which reduces the
0:21:56 > 0:22:03price of food by 20%. That is a big reduction. Bear in mind that the
0:22:03 > 0:22:07biggest tariffs hit food, clothing and foot wear that, harm the poorest
0:22:07 > 0:22:14in society the most. The gains from productivity come from is in
0:22:14 > 0:22:22additional tariffs. Leading to other saving and further investment I
0:22:22 > 0:22:26think the modelling done by the professor is as good as modelling
0:22:26 > 0:22:32can be. That doesn't mean it is infallible. The failure of gravity
0:22:32 > 0:22:39model is well known.Michael Gove was accused of auditioning for the
0:22:39 > 0:22:45job of Chancellor by using long words. Do you know any good long
0:22:45 > 0:22:49economic words?I don't think that we want to get into this type of
0:22:49 > 0:22:53business actually. I think all Conservatives and Steven and I very
0:22:53 > 0:22:59much agree on this, want to show as united a front as we can manage.
0:22:59 > 0:23:03There are differences on some aspects of policy, but in terms of
0:23:03 > 0:23:06individuals we want to stand together and support the best
0:23:06 > 0:23:11interests of the government.Thank you.
0:23:11 > 0:23:13Brexit Secretary David Davis was in Berlin this week trying
0:23:13 > 0:23:16to win the support of business leaders there for a comprehensive
0:23:16 > 0:23:18free trade deal with the EU.
0:23:18 > 0:23:21He warned them against putting 'politics above prosperity'
0:23:21 > 0:23:25and reportedly got a bit of a frosty reception.
0:23:25 > 0:23:28Well, the former Labour MP Gisela Stuart was one of the leaders
0:23:28 > 0:23:30of the Vote Leave referendum campaign.
0:23:30 > 0:23:32We travelled with Gisela to Germany to meet the business leaders
0:23:32 > 0:23:35she says will help secure a good trade deal for the UK.
0:23:35 > 0:23:39Here's her film.
0:23:45 > 0:23:48I was born and brought up in this part of Germany,
0:23:48 > 0:23:52and although I've lived in the UK for the past 40 years,
0:23:52 > 0:23:56and represented the constituency of Birmingham and Edgbaston for 20
0:23:56 > 0:24:01years, my family still live here, and I've kept many links.
0:24:03 > 0:24:06I was chair of Vote Leave, and together with only a handful
0:24:06 > 0:24:09of other Labour MPs, we campaigned to leave
0:24:09 > 0:24:11the European Union because we thought the country would be
0:24:11 > 0:24:13better off outside.
0:24:13 > 0:24:17It's hard to remember now, but back in the 1970s, when we joined
0:24:17 > 0:24:20the European Economic Community, people thought that by joining
0:24:20 > 0:24:25the club we would see the kind of economic miracle Germany
0:24:25 > 0:24:27experienced in the '70s back home.
0:24:27 > 0:24:29The "Deutsche Wirtschaftswunder" would come to Britain.
0:24:29 > 0:24:34But, of course, it didn't.
0:24:36 > 0:24:39Within a few short years of the devastation of World War II,
0:24:39 > 0:24:42Germany had emerged as the largest economy in Europe.
0:24:42 > 0:24:44Germany's extraordinary success is down to
0:24:44 > 0:24:48the pragmatism of its business.
0:24:48 > 0:24:53German Mittelstand is family dominated, forward-thinking,
0:24:53 > 0:24:59long-term thinking, reliability, are very important values.
0:24:59 > 0:25:02Changing moods on a political landscape and changing frameworks
0:25:02 > 0:25:05are toxic for our way of doing business, and we want
0:25:05 > 0:25:12that to go away.
0:25:12 > 0:25:16German business is not given to making big political statements
0:25:16 > 0:25:19out of step with government policy, but talk to those in decision-making
0:25:19 > 0:25:22positions, and it is clear that they want to secure a good deal
0:25:22 > 0:25:25with the United Kingdom.
0:25:25 > 0:25:28BMW employs almost 90,000 people here in Germany,
0:25:28 > 0:25:33and exports just under 1 million cars annually.
0:25:33 > 0:25:37The UK is a vital market.
0:25:37 > 0:25:41What we are really seeking right now is more clarity, more certainty,
0:25:41 > 0:25:46because in our cycle of investment, cycle of development,
0:25:46 > 0:25:50it's about a seven-year or so period that we look at,
0:25:50 > 0:25:54but we are now, of course, starting to think about what comes next,
0:25:54 > 0:25:57and what we need to see now is what is going to be
0:25:57 > 0:26:00the trading relationship, how are the logistics going to look,
0:26:00 > 0:26:02what is going to be the requirements for people
0:26:02 > 0:26:05moving across the continent?
0:26:05 > 0:26:07Because all of these things are important to us today.
0:26:07 > 0:26:11And, by the way, they will be just as important tomorrow.
0:26:11 > 0:26:13Berlin is well aware that if the European Commission
0:26:13 > 0:26:17is allowed to put up trade barriers against Britain, it will be
0:26:17 > 0:26:19German business, German consumers and German employees
0:26:19 > 0:26:24who will suffer.
0:26:24 > 0:26:26TRANSLATION:I think it's very important that we complete
0:26:26 > 0:26:28the first phase successfully.
0:26:28 > 0:26:31The first phase of the negotiations, which looks at the financial
0:26:31 > 0:26:34consequences of Great Britain leaving the EU.
0:26:34 > 0:26:37And then it's not a question of punishment payments.
0:26:37 > 0:26:40It's about when you are part of a multilayer, contractual
0:26:40 > 0:26:44obligation and you want to leave that, then of course it takes
0:26:44 > 0:26:46a whole lot of obligations which you have to deal with,
0:26:46 > 0:26:56so both sides are satisfied and can live with the consequences.
0:26:56 > 0:27:00It isn't everyone's interests for the UK to part on good terms.
0:27:00 > 0:27:03Of course there was going to be upset when the UK voted to leave,
0:27:03 > 0:27:07but creating uncertainty over the terms of UK's exit will simply
0:27:07 > 0:27:12have a disruptive effect on exports to UK markets.
0:27:12 > 0:27:15Far better to have a sensible, amicable negotiation that results
0:27:15 > 0:27:18both sides being able to trade together and work
0:27:18 > 0:27:25together post-Brexit.
0:27:25 > 0:27:26Markus Krall is managing director of Goetzpartners,
0:27:26 > 0:27:28and heads the Financial Institution Industry Group.
0:27:28 > 0:27:33Is it true to say that, if we negotiate Brexit well,
0:27:33 > 0:27:35then a good Brexit can actually strengthen the United Kingdom,
0:27:35 > 0:27:37the European Union and Germany?
0:27:37 > 0:27:39It's absolutely true.
0:27:39 > 0:27:42I think that this is about two things.
0:27:42 > 0:27:47One, about proving that free trade is possible
0:27:47 > 0:27:50between a European Union that is smaller and a former member country.
0:27:50 > 0:27:53If you don't prove that free trade is possible there,
0:27:53 > 0:27:57then the question becomes, what is Europe standing for?
0:27:57 > 0:28:02Number two is, I also believe the free trade,
0:28:02 > 0:28:06free market and democratic and less bureaucratic approach that Britain
0:28:06 > 0:28:09has chosen as the path into the future is a role
0:28:09 > 0:28:12model for Europe.
0:28:12 > 0:28:15The time has come both for the United Kingdom
0:28:15 > 0:28:17and for the EU to be more clear about what kind of
0:28:17 > 0:28:20deal we can achieve.
0:28:20 > 0:28:22Both sides need to be bold.
0:28:22 > 0:28:25As long as we remain open to free trade and sensible co-operation,
0:28:25 > 0:28:31we can arrive at something that will benefit both sides.
0:28:31 > 0:28:34But one thing's obvious - if we are an open and free trading
0:28:34 > 0:28:36economy, we've got one big cheerleader on our side,
0:28:36 > 0:28:42and that is German business.
0:28:42 > 0:28:44That was Gisela Stuart setting out her case
0:28:44 > 0:28:46and we'll be hearing from the opposite side
0:28:46 > 0:28:48of the argument in the coming weeks.
0:28:48 > 0:28:51Gisela Stuart joins us in the studio now, as does Alastair Campbell.
0:28:51 > 0:28:54He used to work for Tony Blair in Number 10, set up
0:28:54 > 0:28:56the New European Newspaper to campaign against Brexit,
0:28:56 > 0:28:58and is so pro-European that at this year's Labour conference
0:28:58 > 0:29:00he was heard playing Ode to Joy on the bagpipes.
0:29:00 > 0:29:05Welcome both of you.
0:29:05 > 0:29:10We will start with your point in the film, that you think the German
0:29:10 > 0:29:15business once the EU to offer the UK a generous deal because it is in
0:29:15 > 0:29:19their interests, yet the president of the German equivalent of the CBI
0:29:19 > 0:29:24said that defending the single market must be the priority for the
0:29:24 > 0:29:30EU, and another says that the cohesion of the remaining member
0:29:30 > 0:29:36states remains the highest priority. The president of the CBI just after
0:29:36 > 0:29:41the referendum said that it would be in nobody 's interest to introduce
0:29:41 > 0:29:49tariffs and trade barriers. On the UK side, I don't think there's a
0:29:49 > 0:29:53full understanding that economic interests are incredibly important,
0:29:53 > 0:30:00that they are trying to cover economic interests on the cohesion
0:30:00 > 0:30:04of the 27. I think different economic interests will raise the
0:30:04 > 0:30:12head of different countries. The German auto industry is as important
0:30:12 > 0:30:18as the financial sector is here. The banking crisis is far from over, but
0:30:18 > 0:30:24the big riffs which were going on is that the E U is losing its second
0:30:24 > 0:30:28biggest net contributor. Countries like Germany want a deal with the UK
0:30:28 > 0:30:35that is a free open market. There are other tensions in the EU that
0:30:35 > 0:30:39wants to become more protectionist, and that is a bad thing.Looking at
0:30:39 > 0:30:47the film there with the Jacob Rees-Mogg interview. No matter what
0:30:47 > 0:30:52side of leave you are, it is delusional and all driven by wishful
0:30:52 > 0:30:56thinking. You could find a businessman who says Brexit will be
0:30:56 > 0:31:00good for Germany. The vast bulk of British businesses think this is a
0:31:00 > 0:31:05disaster, as do the vast bulk of European businesses. One of the
0:31:05 > 0:31:10delusions on which they ran their campaign is the idea that they need
0:31:10 > 0:31:16us more than we need them. That is not true.Be you self about £80
0:31:16 > 0:31:21billion more in goods and services into the UK than we do to them, and
0:31:21 > 0:31:25Germany has one of the biggest deficits. It is in their interest.
0:31:25 > 0:31:31Of course it is, but it is a myth that they need us more than we need
0:31:31 > 0:31:38them. The damage that will be done to us, even with a good deal. Let's
0:31:38 > 0:31:43be frank, where these negotiations are, Theresa May is either going to
0:31:43 > 0:31:50end up with a bad deal and dumber or no Deal. A bad deal is bad, and a no
0:31:50 > 0:31:57deal is a catastrophe.You are setting up ideas that which were not
0:31:57 > 0:32:04there to begin with and knocking them down. Delusional.35 billion,
0:32:04 > 0:32:09the Brexit bonus.If we had a referendum, it was a democratic
0:32:09 > 0:32:12decision. I know you don't like it and that a lot of business would
0:32:12 > 0:32:17have preferred to stay with the status quo. We have had the
0:32:17 > 0:32:22referendum. Undermining political institutions is in no one's
0:32:22 > 0:32:28interests. It is functioning democracies which lead to economic
0:32:28 > 0:32:35stability.Theresa May fought an election Inc on a hard Brexit that
0:32:35 > 0:32:48was rejected.As we heard from BMW, there is uncertainty for business.
0:32:48 > 0:32:53There will be elections, European elections, in 2019. There will be a
0:32:53 > 0:32:58change of the Commission and the parliament. We have a narrow window
0:32:58 > 0:33:02to implement the mandate for the referendum which Parliament voted
0:33:02 > 0:33:09for. So rather than you undermining this country, why don't you work
0:33:09 > 0:33:13together to get the best deal? Because we totally disagree.You
0:33:13 > 0:33:19don't want a good deal?I'm in favour of a good deal, and I could
0:33:19 > 0:33:25give them some advice as to how they get a good deal. First, you have a
0:33:25 > 0:33:31cabinet that has an agreed strategy. 18 months in, they don't have that.
0:33:31 > 0:33:36I am not undermining a deal. I am continuing to pose questions about
0:33:36 > 0:33:42what they are trying to do and how they are trying to do it. This is
0:33:42 > 0:33:47democracy. Democracy is the ability for Parliament, which is not doing
0:33:47 > 0:33:51its job properly, and the public, to keep scrutinising, and if they want
0:33:51 > 0:33:58to change their mind, having the right to do that.You were trying to
0:33:58 > 0:34:02encourage the Taoiseach yesterday to play hardball with the UK.I am on
0:34:02 > 0:34:08the side of the UK, and I am worried that if we go down the path that we
0:34:08 > 0:34:12are being taken down, and Theresa May and Boris Johnson and the rest
0:34:12 > 0:34:17of them, this shambolic path, we are going to do fundamental, lasting
0:34:17 > 0:34:22damage to the country we love. I don't care about the Civil Aviation
0:34:22 > 0:34:28Authority. I care about Britain. -- I don't care about the European
0:34:28 > 0:34:36Union. If every lorry going into the UK today was stopped for just two
0:34:36 > 0:34:42minutes, we would create an instant 17 mile traffic jam. These people
0:34:42 > 0:34:52just don't care...I am not these people! Let us not conflate... You
0:34:52 > 0:34:56either decide that you are implementing a democratic decision
0:34:56 > 0:35:02of a referendum that was called and over 17 million voted.You will not
0:35:02 > 0:35:10stop me debating it. Just as Nigel Farage...Stop talking about Nigel
0:35:10 > 0:35:21Farrell Raj. Vote Leave was not Nigel Farage. There is no desire in
0:35:21 > 0:35:26Germany to punish the United Kingdom.They are behaving
0:35:26 > 0:35:30reasonably.There is a battle of protectionism and free market going
0:35:30 > 0:35:36on. If we implement this properly, give businesses the kind of
0:35:36 > 0:35:42incentives they want, we can get a good deal. So you want a bad deal?
0:35:42 > 0:35:49You are driven by wishful thinking. Gisela Stuart, you are saying that
0:35:49 > 0:35:53business will intervene to prevent things like tariffs being put in
0:35:53 > 0:35:58place? They are leaving it a bit late to put pressure on.You will
0:35:58 > 0:36:01find that business is laying out the kind of things they need to get
0:36:01 > 0:36:06those deals. I can find as much fault with the speed of the
0:36:06 > 0:36:10progress, but what I really do resent is that you are actually
0:36:10 > 0:36:19encouraging other countries to undermine...Know I am not! I spoke
0:36:19 > 0:36:22out in support of the Irish Taoiseach because I spent a lot of
0:36:22 > 0:36:26time with Tony Blair and his team on the Good Friday Agreement. The
0:36:26 > 0:36:30people who are driving this hard Brexit without thinking it through,
0:36:30 > 0:36:36still no answer on how you do Brexit in our island without a hard border.
0:36:36 > 0:36:44I think the Irish Taoiseach is right to call out the government on the
0:36:44 > 0:36:48incompetence and the fact they have not thought it through.You accept
0:36:48 > 0:36:53the result of the referendum and the fact that we will be leaving the EU?
0:36:53 > 0:36:58I accept the result of the referendum, but I do not accept that
0:36:58 > 0:37:03the country will definitely leave, because the country is entitled to
0:37:03 > 0:37:08change its mind. As the chaos and costs mount, the public is entitled
0:37:08 > 0:37:13to change its mind and will change its mind.There is no evidence at
0:37:13 > 0:37:22the moment.Come out with me!Allow me to finish the sentence. There is
0:37:22 > 0:37:28a changing of mind happening, a crystallisation. Unlike you, I have
0:37:28 > 0:37:34fought five elections and I have won five elections. I have probably
0:37:34 > 0:37:39spoken to more people like you.You may do, I'm just saying, come out on
0:37:39 > 0:37:45the road with me...40% of the population in the middle just want
0:37:45 > 0:37:51us to get on with it. What that film showed is that if you want to make
0:37:51 > 0:37:56it a self-fulfilling prophecy that it's a disaster, which I don't. I
0:37:56 > 0:38:02want to implement a deal that is good for British jobs. The rest of
0:38:02 > 0:38:09the world is changing in terms of technology. Currently, Germany
0:38:09 > 0:38:15hasn't even got a government, and nobody is laughing about that.And
0:38:15 > 0:38:19they are stable without a government!Let's leave it there.
0:38:19 > 0:38:22It's coming up to 11.40, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
0:38:22 > 0:38:24Coming up on the programme, we'll be looking at the latest
0:38:24 > 0:38:27opinion polls and we'll bring you the results of our moodbox
0:38:27 > 0:38:29asking whether Phllip Hammond or John McDonnell should be running
0:38:29 > 0:38:37the economy.
0:38:37 > 0:38:39Hello!
0:38:39 > 0:38:41And a warm welcome to your local politics show.
0:38:41 > 0:38:45Now, it's nice and cosy in the studio, but over the course
0:38:45 > 0:38:48of this weekend and the last week or two the cold winter weather
0:38:48 > 0:38:57has started to bite.
0:38:57 > 0:39:00As it does, we report on the North East councils looking
0:39:00 > 0:39:01to get into the energy business.
0:39:01 > 0:39:04Could it be a way to deliver lower gas and electric
0:39:04 > 0:39:05bills for customers?
0:39:05 > 0:39:08Well, talking about that and all the week's political news
0:39:08 > 0:39:10in the region, except perhaps the misuse of sausage rolls
0:39:10 > 0:39:12by certain unnamed bakeries, the Conservative MP for Scarborough
0:39:12 > 0:39:14and Whitby Robert Goodwill, who is an education minister
0:39:14 > 0:39:17as well, and the MP for Wansbeck and Labour Party
0:39:17 > 0:39:18chairman, Ian Lavery.
0:39:18 > 0:39:19Welcome to you both.
0:39:19 > 0:39:21But first, Teesside MPs this week wrote to the Chancellor calling
0:39:21 > 0:39:24upon him to address what they see as a crisis in funding
0:39:24 > 0:39:25for Cleveland Police.
0:39:25 > 0:39:28The previous day, headteachers went to Downing street to demand more
0:39:28 > 0:39:29money for the region's schools.
0:39:29 > 0:39:31And the Federation of Small Businesses were next,
0:39:31 > 0:39:34they want a cut in business rates and action on broadband.
0:39:34 > 0:39:36And then there's the little matter of the £430 million required
0:39:36 > 0:39:39for new trains on the Tyne & Wear Metro, backed this
0:39:39 > 0:39:41week by none other than the former Chancellor
0:39:41 > 0:39:42- remember him?
0:39:42 > 0:39:43- George Osborne.
0:39:43 > 0:39:45Well, when it comes to next Wednesday's budget it seems
0:39:45 > 0:39:48there are no shortage of ways for Philip Hammond
0:39:48 > 0:39:49to splash the cash.
0:39:49 > 0:39:51Robert, would you accept that this budget is make or break
0:39:51 > 0:40:00for the Northern Powerhouse?
0:40:00 > 0:40:03Well, we've seen tremendous investment coming into the North -
0:40:03 > 0:40:06when I was a roads minister we had money going to the A1,
0:40:06 > 0:40:09money on the Western bypass, money at the end of the Tyne Tunnel,
0:40:09 > 0:40:11so we have seen investment in the north, and indeed
0:40:11 > 0:40:14with the ending of the Crossrail project we will see the rebalancing
0:40:14 > 0:40:17I think of investment much more between the north and south.
0:40:17 > 0:40:19But be in no doubt, it's very important we continue
0:40:19 > 0:40:22to invest in rail and roads, because it's only with good
0:40:22 > 0:40:24infrastructure that we can actually develop the economy up here.
0:40:24 > 0:40:27And businesses would agree with you, and some of them might take issue
0:40:27 > 0:40:30with the idea that it's not that there's no investment,
0:40:30 > 0:40:32that it's tremendous investment that we've seen -
0:40:32 > 0:40:33the problem is with the Northern Powerhouse,
0:40:33 > 0:40:36you've raised expectations to such high levels on this idea,
0:40:36 > 0:40:38and the perception amongst small businesses, even allies
0:40:38 > 0:40:40like George Osborne, is that as yet the Government hasn't
0:40:40 > 0:40:42delivered the big project that would back up the
0:40:42 > 0:40:46rhetoric with money.
0:40:46 > 0:40:49Well, as I said we have a £44 billion roads investment strategy,
0:40:49 > 0:40:58much of which is going to the north.
0:40:58 > 0:41:01In my own area we've a project in the pipeline for the A64,
0:41:01 > 0:41:03connecting the East Coast to the A1.
0:41:03 > 0:41:06Would you accept though that it's not been good enough so far
0:41:06 > 0:41:07to convince the doubters?
0:41:07 > 0:41:10Well, I think what you need to look at is across the board -
0:41:10 > 0:41:12the money's gone into Manchester, gone into Leeds.
0:41:12 > 0:41:14We're looking at a high-speed three across the Pennines,
0:41:14 > 0:41:16and of course Anne-Marie Trevelyan, my colleague in Northumberland
0:41:16 > 0:41:20is very keen to see money going into the A1, so it'll be
0:41:20 > 0:41:22interesting to see what money is there for projects like that.
0:41:22 > 0:41:25Ian Lavery, when it comes to helping us in the north,
0:41:25 > 0:41:27what should be the number one priority in the budget?
0:41:27 > 0:41:28Transport investment, public sector pay,
0:41:28 > 0:41:30investment in our hospitals - what is it?
0:41:30 > 0:41:31All of those things.
0:41:31 > 0:41:34But one thing's absolutely certain, is that the North doesn't end
0:41:34 > 0:41:35at Manchester, Leeds or Liverpool.
0:41:35 > 0:41:37Between those areas and the Scottish Borders,
0:41:37 > 0:41:40where we live and we see on a daily basis they complete
0:41:40 > 0:41:41lack of investment...
0:41:41 > 0:41:42-- the complete lack of investment.
0:41:42 > 0:41:46-- the complete lack of investment.
0:41:46 > 0:41:49You mentioned rhetoric - plenty of rhetoric,
0:41:49 > 0:41:50not enough finances, not enough investment
0:41:50 > 0:41:52in all the things that you mention.
0:41:52 > 0:41:55What we would like to see from the budget,
0:41:55 > 0:42:00which would help the north-east, we need to look at Universal
0:42:00 > 0:42:02Credit, we need a post on Universal Credit...
0:42:02 > 0:42:04We need to look at infrastructure programmes and investment
0:42:04 > 0:42:14in the local economies, when it look at the public sector
0:42:16 > 0:42:18how we can rid ourselves of that pay cap,
0:42:18 > 0:42:20and also invest monies in the public sector fully.
0:42:20 > 0:42:21Sure.
0:42:21 > 0:42:25And to be honest with you I expected you to say that all of those
0:42:25 > 0:42:27were a priority, and that's the problem, isn't it?
0:42:27 > 0:42:30If you are going to meet all the promises that Labour makes
0:42:30 > 0:42:32on all these issues, there are very few that really
0:42:32 > 0:42:35believe you can do that, as John McDonnell seemed to suggest
0:42:35 > 0:42:38this week by just taxing a few businesses and the wealthy.
0:42:38 > 0:42:41You are going to have to ask all people to pay more tax,
0:42:41 > 0:42:42and shouldn't you be honest about that?
0:42:42 > 0:42:45I think we are honest. At the election you will recall that we
0:42:45 > 0:42:47were the only party, the Labour Party, who produced a great book
0:42:47 > 0:42:53along with the manifesto... Theresa May said it was incredible
0:42:53 > 0:43:01you could fund that.But we were quite clear, crystal clear, because
0:43:01 > 0:43:07it is important that we are upfront with the electorate, on how we fund
0:43:07 > 0:43:13what we want.Robert, this week there have been new powers added --
0:43:13 > 0:43:19handed to this transport body. With the radical idea be to hand all the
0:43:19 > 0:43:28money and all the power for Northern transport to those who know it best?
0:43:28 > 0:43:32We had a referendum about whether we should have a regional level of
0:43:32 > 0:43:36Government, and I think people want more bureaucracy.You didn't worry
0:43:36 > 0:43:40about bureaucracy when it came to mayors in separate -- certain parts
0:43:40 > 0:43:46of the country!We have MPs in certain parts of the North of
0:43:46 > 0:43:52England... We are getting substantial investment in the North.
0:43:52 > 0:43:59Look at the money that has been going in on the western relief road.
0:43:59 > 0:44:04Let's look at the Tyne & Wear Metro. Would it be acceptable for the
0:44:04 > 0:44:07Chancellor to say I'm not going to give you the money directly, you've
0:44:07 > 0:44:14got to do it from -- through a private company?When I first went
0:44:14 > 0:44:17to the Department for Transport we looked at finance through the public
0:44:17 > 0:44:21sector, and we decided for some of the big road projects for the
0:44:21 > 0:44:27Government to borrow money more cheaply from the private sector. We
0:44:27 > 0:44:31need to make sure we don't max out on our credit card Bill like the
0:44:31 > 0:44:39last Labour Government did. Trains are generally owned by the rolling
0:44:39 > 0:44:42stock companies that leads them out, so the principle there is a
0:44:42 > 0:44:51different one to having a PFI such as the one we have for schools.I
0:44:51 > 0:44:55personally think we should be looking at the correct investment,
0:44:55 > 0:45:00not just in the Tyne & Wear Metro but also the line in Northumberland,
0:45:00 > 0:45:05we should never forget Northumberland, and that money
0:45:05 > 0:45:09should be coming from central government to invest in that
0:45:09 > 0:45:14infrastructure, to connect time in the north to the city regions.Now,
0:45:14 > 0:45:18the cold weather is upon us, and the difficulties faced by many try to
0:45:18 > 0:45:22pay their fuel bills. 152,000 households in the north-east are
0:45:22 > 0:45:28affected by fuel poverty. People who spent more than 10% of their income
0:45:28 > 0:45:32on gas or electricity. The Government says the market is
0:45:32 > 0:45:36broken, and it has promised to cap bills on the most expensive tariffs,
0:45:36 > 0:45:40an idea initially proposed by Labour. Could there be another
0:45:40 > 0:45:43solution to the problem of those rising bills, in the shape of local
0:45:43 > 0:45:48councils setting up their own energy firms?
0:45:48 > 0:45:52It is not just shop prices putting people under pressure in Newcastle.
0:45:52 > 0:45:55Businesses and the public are feeling the strain from rising
0:45:55 > 0:45:59energy bills. The owner of this newly opened restaurant says the
0:45:59 > 0:46:05cost of illiteracy is crippling. They put their prices up 11% last
0:46:05 > 0:46:12time, and inflation's going up to 2%. So they are making 9% of people
0:46:12 > 0:46:15who haven't got the money, who are struggling. And they are making
0:46:15 > 0:46:20billions.With two small children, Colin and Vicky have to keep their
0:46:20 > 0:46:27home warm.Energy prices are going up all the time. It is not just a
0:46:27 > 0:46:31struggle for myself but the public, everybody's struggling.I can never
0:46:31 > 0:46:36understand the bills that they give you, and all the units and this
0:46:36 > 0:46:41price Purvis... It is all a bit complicated. I can see why old
0:46:41 > 0:46:46people wouldn't understand it.Fuel campaigners say they can see why
0:46:46 > 0:46:54some families are pushed to the edge.We see 15% of older couples
0:46:54 > 0:46:56and young people having to choose whether to feed themselves and their
0:46:56 > 0:47:02families and having to have the electricity on. This is just the
0:47:02 > 0:47:05start of the winter, so the problem is only going to get worse.So is
0:47:05 > 0:47:09this part of the answer? A council run power station close to the banks
0:47:09 > 0:47:18of the Tyne.Basically we've got two identical power engines. It's
0:47:18 > 0:47:23basically a very large 20 cylinder engine running on natural gas.The
0:47:23 > 0:47:28plant supplies electricity and heat to public buildings in Gateshead and
0:47:28 > 0:47:33from next year, hundreds of homes. Backers say the result is cheaper
0:47:33 > 0:47:38and greener energy.Customers are getting a lower carbon, lower cost
0:47:38 > 0:47:41source of energy. We discovered their energy compared to the market
0:47:41 > 0:47:49rate, and the comfort is coming from a lower carbon source.
0:47:49 > 0:47:54Are you having trouble finding the right tariff for you? Don't worry,
0:47:54 > 0:47:58Nottingham, help is here!Some councils have gone further,
0:47:58 > 0:48:03launching not-for-profit energy suppliers that serve whole cities.
0:48:03 > 0:48:06Nottingham's Robin Hood energy was the first.
0:48:06 > 0:48:12We are not about setting aside money to pay dividends to shareholders or
0:48:12 > 0:48:18two massive director -- directors' salaries or bonuses, we are about
0:48:18 > 0:48:23setting aside any profit to bring back down the price.A number of
0:48:23 > 0:48:25councils are considering following suit, but this is potentially a
0:48:25 > 0:48:30gamble with taxpayers' money, and for customers it won't always be the
0:48:30 > 0:48:35cheapest option. Here at University -- at the Newcastle University,
0:48:35 > 0:48:38experts point out the pitfalls. Although these schemes look
0:48:38 > 0:48:42promising, they face a lot of serious challenges, so it is a
0:48:42 > 0:48:46highly competitive market, there are technical risks about how to
0:48:46 > 0:48:48maintain the infrastructure itself and make sure it is reliable and
0:48:48 > 0:48:55efficient.Do you like the idea of a council owned energy supplier?I am
0:48:55 > 0:48:59not sure, but if it was a cheaper option is to be something to look
0:48:59 > 0:49:03bad.Not the council in the area I live in, thank you.You don't think
0:49:03 > 0:49:09they are up to running the energy company?Not particularly, I
0:49:09 > 0:49:15sometimes wonder why they are -- whether they can run the city.It is
0:49:15 > 0:49:18still not quite clear the local approach will work.
0:49:18 > 0:49:22An endless supply of energy I gather. Is this something councils
0:49:22 > 0:49:27should be dabbling in when they have to concentrate on many other things
0:49:27 > 0:49:32with limited resources?I think it's a great idea, it is visionary, it is
0:49:32 > 0:49:36happening in other countries across Europe, it is happening in America,
0:49:36 > 0:49:42cities in America, looking at producing their own electricity, and
0:49:42 > 0:49:47it can only mean a good thing if indeed the people in the region
0:49:47 > 0:49:49themselves actually receive cheaper energy. There is legislation placed
0:49:49 > 0:49:55at the sports -- time, which prevents local municipal owned
0:49:55 > 0:50:01energy companies from providing cheap energy, cheaper energy than
0:50:01 > 0:50:05what is available on the grid. And if this is to be successful, we have
0:50:05 > 0:50:12got to help that it will be cheaper for those in the region, moving
0:50:12 > 0:50:16people out of fuel poverty, so if we cannot get cheaper energy, then what
0:50:16 > 0:50:21is the point? Robert, would it be more effective
0:50:21 > 0:50:26to see councils given this chance to do this, rather than these caps
0:50:26 > 0:50:30being proposed by all of you?We have protections for people on low
0:50:30 > 0:50:38incomes, a discount worth -- Ford to people... And of course we have the
0:50:38 > 0:50:42winter payments. But the problem is not with suppliers, we have 60
0:50:42 > 0:50:48supplies at the moment, up from 13 in 2010, the problem is that 60% of
0:50:48 > 0:50:52consumers particularly older people are on a standard variable tariff,
0:50:52 > 0:50:56and the Bill that is coming before Parliament for us to consider is
0:50:56 > 0:51:00that -- for those people to have that tariff respected, a
0:51:00 > 0:51:05safeguarding tariff.There are people right now choosing as we
0:51:05 > 0:51:11heard between heating and eating. When is this cap going to appear? At
0:51:11 > 0:51:16the moment, there are 60% of people paying more than they should, so the
0:51:16 > 0:51:20first point...And the market's has proven that there are people who
0:51:20 > 0:51:24will not shop around.When is that cap would happen? The legislation
0:51:24 > 0:51:29will be in Parliament by the end of the year, meaning that Ofgem will
0:51:29 > 0:51:33set that level at a fair level, to prevent the situation where loyal
0:51:33 > 0:51:41customers, those who do not understand the market or have access
0:51:41 > 0:51:44to the Internet, can get the best deal.
0:51:44 > 0:51:51A lot of suppliers out there...This was classed as a Marxist policy by
0:51:51 > 0:51:57the Conservatives when it was first mentioned by Ed Miliband, and now...
0:51:57 > 0:52:01Isn't the answer more competition? The answer is not more competition,
0:52:01 > 0:52:09the answer is to make sure, and what the Labour Party says... The Labour
0:52:09 > 0:52:14Party is quite clear, we would take back into public ownership the
0:52:14 > 0:52:19energy companies. You can only control what you earn. Not what
0:52:19 > 0:52:25we've -- we've got 30,000 people dying every year because of the lack
0:52:25 > 0:52:32of heat in their properties.And it cost you £30 billion to £40 billion
0:52:32 > 0:52:40to nationalise the national Grid.I think saving 30,000 pupils's
0:52:40 > 0:52:48people's lives should be top of the agenda. What about those 30,000
0:52:48 > 0:52:57people.For many -- there's no doubt what issue has been keeping MPs busy
0:52:57 > 0:53:02this week, but we like to discover what else has been going on in the
0:53:02 > 0:53:11world of politics, other than you know what.
0:53:11 > 0:53:13Unemployment in the north-east fell in the three
0:53:13 > 0:53:14months to September by 6,000.
0:53:14 > 0:53:16There was also a slight drop in Cumbria.
0:53:16 > 0:53:19The Bishop of Durham, the Right Reverend Paul Butler, says he's
0:53:19 > 0:53:21heard heartbreaking stories about how Universal Credit is devastating
0:53:21 > 0:53:24the lives of claimants.
0:53:24 > 0:53:26He was speaking in the Lords.
0:53:26 > 0:53:29A debate is to be held over the plight of WASPI
0:53:29 > 0:53:31women, who are fighting changes to the state pension age.
0:53:31 > 0:53:33Stockton North MP Alex Cunningham urged the
0:53:33 > 0:53:34pensions minister, Hexham's Guy Opperman,
0:53:34 > 0:53:38to engage with the women.
0:53:38 > 0:53:41It won't go away, so why doesn't the Minister engage
0:53:41 > 0:53:43with the campaigners to find a solution?
0:53:43 > 0:53:46The Government has already introduced transitional
0:53:46 > 0:53:47arrangements costing £1.1 billion, in 2011.
0:53:47 > 0:53:50Newcastle councillors will decide this week whether to hand
0:53:50 > 0:53:52over the city's parks to a charitable trust.
0:53:52 > 0:53:58And finally, the National Lottery's awarded Redcar
0:53:58 > 0:54:01and Cleveland Council nearly £70,000 for a project about the history of
0:54:01 > 0:54:03the iron and steel industry.
0:54:03 > 0:54:05While £4,500 will go towards exploring the
0:54:05 > 0:54:06history of pigeon fancying in Skinningrove.
0:54:06 > 0:54:09Now, I do want to discuss one other issue that I think
0:54:09 > 0:54:12has come up in the Commons this week, and which will no doubt come
0:54:12 > 0:54:19up next week, which is Universal Credit.
0:54:19 > 0:54:23Robert Goodwill, there is growing pressure from the Bishop of Durham
0:54:23 > 0:54:26even within your own party to give ground on this. A listening
0:54:26 > 0:54:32Government should be able -- prepared to move on this issue.
0:54:32 > 0:54:35About 8% of claimants are on Universal Credit at the moment, that
0:54:35 > 0:54:42is going to extent a 10% in January. And yes, there are emergency
0:54:42 > 0:54:47payments people can take to tide them through, and that 50% of
0:54:47 > 0:54:51claimants... I think the Government will look at it, and certainly we
0:54:51 > 0:54:55are getting feedback, but what is fundamentally the case is that
0:54:55 > 0:54:59Universal Credit is helping people get on to work, but under the old
0:54:59 > 0:55:03system people did not want to work more than 16 hours, for every £1
0:55:03 > 0:55:11they lost they earned 96p. Universal Credit is getting people into work,
0:55:11 > 0:55:19but in the initial period we have to get them the work they need.If the
0:55:19 > 0:55:23Government does tackle this, will that be enough, particularly as to
0:55:23 > 0:55:27how they dealt with that help line that was costing them money?Any
0:55:27 > 0:55:31Government who proposes a policy that is going to push more people
0:55:31 > 0:55:35into poverty, including hundreds of thousands of more children, should
0:55:35 > 0:55:38really, seriously, look at themselves. If I put in a claim for
0:55:38 > 0:55:43Universal Credit today, then I would not receive a payment until after
0:55:43 > 0:55:51the New Year. I think the issue is, Richard, will they tackle it? There
0:55:51 > 0:55:55must be pressure put on the Government to ensure that people
0:55:55 > 0:56:00have got bread on the table for their kids, they have, at this
0:56:00 > 0:56:04particular point in the year, it isn't Christmas. Any Government
0:56:04 > 0:56:07pushing people into poverty should look themselves seriously in the
0:56:07 > 0:56:13mirror.We're going to have to move on. The Prime Minister says she
0:56:13 > 0:56:17wants to see many more new homes built over the next decade, but how
0:56:17 > 0:56:22many should there be in the north-east and Cumbria? Our local
0:56:22 > 0:56:26councillors have their view, with plans for more than 180,000, but
0:56:26 > 0:56:31that was before a new consultation which appears to put the brakes on
0:56:31 > 0:56:35some of those ambitions. It says house-building should be
0:56:35 > 0:56:41concentrated on where an affluent population is expected to grow, so
0:56:41 > 0:56:45that means fewer new homes in places like Sunderland, Middlesbrough and
0:56:45 > 0:56:48Carlisle. According to the Government, the
0:56:48 > 0:56:51formula will mean the right homes in the right places. The context
0:56:51 > 0:56:56calculation drawn up in offices in Whitehall is based on the idea that
0:56:56 > 0:56:58more homes should be built in areas where house prices are high.
0:56:58 > 0:57:00more homes should be built in areas where house prices are high. Where
0:57:00 > 0:57:06prices are cheaper, the opposite may be the case. Most places in the
0:57:06 > 0:57:09north-east, Cumbria and North Yorkshire, would see few homes built
0:57:09 > 0:57:12under the scheme. In total,
0:57:12 > 0:57:12Yorkshire, would see few homes built under the scheme. In total, 30,000
0:57:12 > 0:57:18fewer of the next decade. Critics say both the data on which
0:57:18 > 0:57:29the calculations are based on the idea itself are deeply flawed.
0:57:29 > 0:57:33Housing growth is a vital component of our investment programme, without
0:57:33 > 0:57:37it we do not attract the investment or get those jobs. We may have to
0:57:37 > 0:57:41temper what we would want to do. I don't think we would be willing to
0:57:41 > 0:57:45do that, I am not willing and the Mayor is not willing. I think we
0:57:45 > 0:57:48would have to work harder to attract that investment, we would have
0:57:48 > 0:57:52people who might go elsewhere when they could live here and work in the
0:57:52 > 0:57:55time. That has a knock on effect of our investment programme, our
0:57:55 > 0:58:01strategy. And I think ultimately it means we have a Government that says
0:58:01 > 0:58:04places like Middlesbrough and up in the north are not necessarily worth
0:58:04 > 0:58:10living or working in.Robert, with all the talk from your party about
0:58:10 > 0:58:16building new homes, it is ironic that the formula could see fewer new
0:58:16 > 0:58:20homes being built in the North? House-building is at more than
0:58:20 > 0:58:26double the level it was under the last Labour Government in 2009, but
0:58:26 > 0:58:30people want to buy homes, where they will not -- where they want to live
0:58:30 > 0:58:37and work. The measure the Government has introduced focused -- focuses on
0:58:37 > 0:58:43the area people cannot afford to buy homes, but where jobs might be. So
0:58:43 > 0:58:47you can't force people to live where they don't want to live.According
0:58:47 > 0:58:53to the formula, Scarborough should be building over 6000 fewer homes
0:58:53 > 0:58:57council wants them to build. Presumably if you like the former
0:58:57 > 0:59:08lady would support that?When it comes down to it, we have plenty of
0:59:08 > 0:59:14land allocated in the country to build on, and the house-builders are
0:59:14 > 0:59:17building houses and people are buying those houses, we have seen
0:59:17 > 0:59:23massive investment going into my own area, in the Whitby area...Ian
0:59:23 > 0:59:36Avery, this is just great -- realistic. -- knavery. -- Ian
0:59:36 > 0:59:43Lavery, isn't it? House prices are much higher in the South...The
0:59:43 > 0:59:47consequences of this new criteria will mean less homes in the north
0:59:47 > 0:59:52again. Total inequality between the north and the South, and why this
0:59:52 > 0:59:55new criteria of affordability is being introduced is beyond me. What
0:59:55 > 1:00:01the consequences mean that there will be less house-building in areas
1:00:01 > 1:00:07like mine where new houses are much-needed...But there is no point
1:00:07 > 1:00:12in unrealistic targets in areas that are losing population.We need
1:00:12 > 1:00:16proportionate investment in the north-east the same as we get in
1:00:16 > 1:00:20other -- any other place in the south-east for example, we talk
1:00:20 > 1:00:29about Universal Credit, investment in the regions... The sad and the
1:00:29 > 1:00:35worst...Another bizarre aspect is that Sajid Javid criticises the
1:00:35 > 1:00:40council for not having a plan, Conservatives wanted to cut the
1:00:40 > 1:00:47house-building targets so --.We had a change of control in
1:00:47 > 1:00:50Northumberland County Council. According to Sajid Javid, you got it
1:00:50 > 1:00:54all wrong.Certainly Scarborough Borough Council were one of the
1:00:54 > 1:00:58first to come up with a plan. We've seen housing being built in numbers,
1:00:58 > 1:01:05large and people moving in.It took nine years to come forward with a
1:01:05 > 1:01:11core strategy. It was introduced in February of this year, and within
1:01:11 > 1:01:15days of the Conservatives taking control of Northumbria County
1:01:15 > 1:01:20Council, they withdrew the core strategy against legal opinion, and
1:01:20 > 1:01:24they have been severely admonished by their own sector...What is going
1:01:24 > 1:01:28on?! Much more on what this means for Cumbria and the north-east in
1:01:28 > 1:01:31next week's show. Follow me on
1:01:39 > 1:01:41Philip Hammond will deliver his Budget on Wednesday -
1:01:41 > 1:01:44he's moved it to the Autumn if you remember - and he'll be
1:01:44 > 1:01:47hoping it can help re-define the Government in the eyes
1:01:47 > 1:01:48of the public.
1:01:48 > 1:01:52But when it comes to the economy, do people trust
1:01:52 > 1:01:53the Conservatives, or Labour?
1:01:53 > 1:01:57Here's Ellie Price with the moodbox.
1:01:57 > 1:02:05MUSIC: The Road to Nowhere by Talking Heads.
1:02:05 > 1:02:08All eyes will be on the Chancellor this week as we find out
1:02:08 > 1:02:11what he has been cooking up in his Budget.
1:02:11 > 1:02:14So we have pulled off the A1 near Peterborough to ask people here
1:02:14 > 1:02:17who they trust with the economy - is it the Chancellor,
1:02:17 > 1:02:23Philip Hammond, or is it Labour's John McDonnell?
1:02:23 > 1:02:27No 7.
1:02:27 > 1:02:32Which one's Tory?
1:02:38 > 1:02:40I voted Conservative for the last two
1:02:40 > 1:02:44elections, don't feel very confident now, so I'm going to swap.
1:02:44 > 1:02:47If I said to you which of these characters
1:02:47 > 1:02:49would you trust with the economy, what would you say?
1:02:49 > 1:02:51The one who's currently running it, because they
1:02:51 > 1:02:52seem to be bringing the deficit down.
1:02:52 > 1:02:53Labour.
1:02:53 > 1:02:55Why?
1:02:55 > 1:02:57Because I'm an NHS worker.
1:02:57 > 1:03:00For me, it's just about spending, public spending.
1:03:00 > 1:03:05Labour always overspend.
1:03:05 > 1:03:11John McDonnell, I think capitalism as we know it is tanked
1:03:11 > 1:03:16and I think we need a radical re-think.
1:03:16 > 1:03:19Broken his egg, who do you trust more on the economy?
1:03:19 > 1:03:20No one.
1:03:20 > 1:03:22Why?
1:03:22 > 1:03:28Because they never come up trumps with anything that they
1:03:28 > 1:03:29reckon they're going to do.
1:03:29 > 1:03:31If I had to make you choose one of them?
1:03:31 > 1:03:33The man that's there, Hammond.
1:03:33 > 1:03:35I wouldn't trust Philip Hammond with a
1:03:35 > 1:03:41bag of marbles or a plastic ball!
1:03:41 > 1:03:42Hello, Bob.
1:03:42 > 1:03:43Oh, hello.
1:03:43 > 1:03:44Who do you trust more on the economy?
1:03:44 > 1:03:46Oh, the Conservatives.
1:03:46 > 1:03:47Do you? Why's that?
1:03:47 > 1:03:50I just think they're better for the small businessman.
1:03:50 > 1:03:52We need a Maggie or a Winston Churchill,
1:03:52 > 1:03:55somebody in there with balls to say, right,
1:03:55 > 1:03:56that's the direction we are
1:03:56 > 1:03:58going in, that's what we are going to do.
1:03:58 > 1:04:01I've got balls!
1:04:01 > 1:04:02What are you doing?
1:04:02 > 1:04:09Putting balls in holes by the look of it!
1:04:09 > 1:04:12I suppose the lesser of the two evils is anything but Tory,
1:04:12 > 1:04:14but I say that without a great deal of conviction.
1:04:14 > 1:04:17Having grown up in the '70s with all the rubbish on the
1:04:17 > 1:04:19streets, the strikes, the unions.
1:04:19 > 1:04:22Re-nationalisation and they're going to spend a lot of money
1:04:22 > 1:04:28and increase taxes and it will pull the country down.
1:04:28 > 1:04:31I've seen an awful loft of all-day breakfasts today, but it
1:04:31 > 1:04:35is clearing up time here at the diner and time
1:04:35 > 1:04:37to reveal the Moodbox.
1:04:37 > 1:04:39Take it away, Tim.
1:04:39 > 1:04:41As you can say it was a close-run thing, but
1:04:41 > 1:04:44like any fiscally responsible Chancellor, I've done my maths and
1:04:44 > 1:04:51counted and Philip Hammond got six more votes than John McDonnell.
1:04:51 > 1:04:54Oh, chip, thank you very much!
1:04:54 > 1:04:56That was Ellie and the entirely unscientific Moodbox,
1:04:56 > 1:04:59at the Stibbington diner near Peterborough.
1:04:59 > 1:05:02But for a slightly more scientific understanding of how the public view
1:05:02 > 1:05:04the parties on this and other issues, let's have a look
1:05:04 > 1:05:06at some recent polling.
1:05:06 > 1:05:09Here's where the Conservatives and Labour stood on the economy back
1:05:09 > 1:05:12when the Prime Minister called the snap election in April,
1:05:12 > 1:05:15when the Conservatives had a big lead, as they did in many
1:05:15 > 1:05:17other areas.
1:05:17 > 1:05:20The most recent poll by the same company reckoned Labour had narrowed
1:05:20 > 1:05:22the gap significantly, as they have in other areas,
1:05:22 > 1:05:27although they're still 10 points behind the Tories on this issue.
1:05:27 > 1:05:31And there was another survey much discussed at Westminster this week,
1:05:31 > 1:05:36showing that while the gap between Theresa May
1:05:36 > 1:05:39and Jeremy Corbyn has narrowed drastically since that pre-election
1:05:39 > 1:05:40period, Mrs May is, despite her many problems,
1:05:40 > 1:05:42still pretty much level-pegging in polling terms or
1:05:42 > 1:05:44even slightly ahead.
1:05:44 > 1:05:46And when it comes to how people intend to vote
1:05:46 > 1:05:48while the Tories are behind, there's no sign of a
1:05:48 > 1:05:50big Labour lead yet.
1:05:50 > 1:05:52Tony Blair thinks that, given the current "mess"
1:05:52 > 1:05:56inside the Government, Jeremy Corbyn's party should be
1:05:56 > 1:05:5910 or 15 points ahead.
1:05:59 > 1:06:03Well, many in Labour will find it easy to dismiss both Tony Blair
1:06:03 > 1:06:05and the opinion polls, as they both called the last election entirely
1:06:05 > 1:06:12wrong, so what if anything do these polls tell us?
1:06:12 > 1:06:20Let's turn to our expert panel. Labour are now eight points on the
1:06:20 > 1:06:25economy, according to a poll. Why is there a gap between Labour and the
1:06:25 > 1:06:31Tories?There seems to be a deep-seated reservation in the minds
1:06:31 > 1:06:34of many voters. They look at Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell and
1:06:34 > 1:06:40imagine them in charge of the country, the finances, national
1:06:40 > 1:06:43security, and think... It is unfashionable to point out in many
1:06:43 > 1:06:48circles that Labour did not win the last election, and it didn't win it
1:06:48 > 1:06:54for that kind of reason. Jeremy Corbyn is very good at attracting
1:06:54 > 1:07:00and inspiring young people and people who had not voted before. We
1:07:00 > 1:07:06underestimated his capacity to do that. But he wasn't great at turning
1:07:06 > 1:07:11Tories to Labour, or sealing off those final reservations. The
1:07:11 > 1:07:15government have had a shambolic few weeks. We are tripping over
1:07:15 > 1:07:19resigning a cabinet ministers. They are fighting like ferrets. A lot of
1:07:19 > 1:07:22people are having a really tough time and looking at the government
1:07:22 > 1:07:27to help them, and are unimpressed with what they see. But there seems
1:07:27 > 1:07:34to be a final fence that Corbyn does not seem to be able to get over.
1:07:34 > 1:07:39Isn't Tony Blair right, that Labour should be 15 or 20 points ahead?I
1:07:39 > 1:07:44think he's completely wrong, and is revealing he is out of date. I think
1:07:44 > 1:07:47Labour are in a really good position. If you look at what they
1:07:47 > 1:07:53have achieved in the last year, going into Christmas 2016, Corbyn
1:07:53 > 1:07:59had just managed to avoid, had to re-fight Labour leadership contest.
1:07:59 > 1:08:06They were 20 points behind. Theresa May was at the top of her game.
1:08:06 > 1:08:11Through the general election and beyond it, they have continued to
1:08:11 > 1:08:15build their movement. They are very effective on social media. I think
1:08:15 > 1:08:21they are in a strong position, and they need about 60 seats to win the
1:08:21 > 1:08:26next general election. They will probably start with 25 of those. The
1:08:26 > 1:08:30fact that they are closing the gap on the economy suggests that a lot
1:08:30 > 1:08:34of voters are now giving them a chance or a hearing, which they
1:08:34 > 1:08:38certainly were not getting a year ago. I think they have done very
1:08:38 > 1:08:44well.Can they be confident with a slim lead against the government?I
1:08:44 > 1:08:49am slightly more with Tony Blair than with Iain. This goes back to
1:08:49 > 1:08:56that very general election result. A huge turnout for Labour for Jeremy
1:08:56 > 1:09:04Corbyn. If you asked that same 40% of people today, do you want Jeremy
1:09:04 > 1:09:07Corbyn to be Prime Minister? Where you really voting for Jeremy Corbyn
1:09:07 > 1:09:13to lead the British governmentanswer is no, because Theresa May still,
1:09:13 > 1:09:17despite the fact she is presiding over a shambolic cabinet, she has
1:09:17 > 1:09:24the most support for Prime Minister. The last general election may have
1:09:24 > 1:09:30just been a giant by-election, because everyone was so short that
1:09:30 > 1:09:34Theresa May would get in.The Chancellor Philip Hammond gave
1:09:34 > 1:09:41Labour a bit of a gift, when he said, there were not any unemployed
1:09:41 > 1:09:47people in Britain. A slip of the tongue. Was that damaging?You have
1:09:47 > 1:09:52to look at the context he was saying it in, which will not be the context
1:09:52 > 1:09:59of the Facebook meme you will get shortly. He was asked about future
1:09:59 > 1:10:10unemployment, and he was saying that when technological advances came,
1:10:10 > 1:10:15unemployment didn't materialise. They would not be able to use that
1:10:15 > 1:10:20against him so easily if it didn't have something that people think
1:10:20 > 1:10:24about the Conservative government, which is that they are out of touch,
1:10:24 > 1:10:27they have no idea about some people, that they refuse to see what they
1:10:27 > 1:10:32have done. People have that idea about the Conservatives, so to drop
1:10:32 > 1:10:39a bit of a clanger in that regard... The budget is on Wednesday, and also
1:10:39 > 1:10:43this week, the Brexit committee will be meeting. What will they be
1:10:43 > 1:10:48talking about and why does it matter?What Stephen Hammond said to
1:10:48 > 1:10:51you a few moments ago was fascinating. Tomorrow is going to be
1:10:51 > 1:10:57the big meeting. It is the negotiations committee. Nine or so
1:10:57 > 1:11:01ministers have recently been included in that, like Michael Gove.
1:11:01 > 1:11:05They are going to be talking about the money, precisely how much they
1:11:05 > 1:11:10offer in two weeks' time to meet this deadline in the December
1:11:10 > 1:11:14council for phase two. Michael Gove and Boris Johnson want to add in
1:11:14 > 1:11:19conditions. They want to say, we will give you this as long as we get
1:11:19 > 1:11:24that. What was fascinating with Stephen Hammond just now was that he
1:11:24 > 1:11:27revealed that it wasn't just the Brexiteers in Cabinet who want a
1:11:27 > 1:11:37more precise definition of what we are going for, it is the remainers
1:11:37 > 1:11:42as well.In the heart of the government, David Davis is trying to
1:11:42 > 1:11:50keep the bill as low as possible, possibly around 30%. The divorce
1:11:50 > 1:11:56Bill and future liabilities. Some in the civil service have suggested
1:11:56 > 1:12:03that it has to be 40 or above. What it reveals to me is really, it's
1:12:03 > 1:12:07another function of Britain not really having a proper Prime
1:12:07 > 1:12:12Minister. In normal circumstances, of course the Cabinet is divided. A
1:12:12 > 1:12:16strong leader would say, right, this is what is happening. This is where
1:12:16 > 1:12:22we are going. We will call it 35 or 40 billion. We will save to the
1:12:22 > 1:12:26European Union, there is the check, but it will not have a signature on
1:12:26 > 1:12:39it until we are satisfied with the next
1:12:45 > 1:12:48stage. The government is hampered by the lack of a strong personality who
1:12:48 > 1:12:50could do that, make a political play with other European leaders that
1:12:50 > 1:12:53might break the deadlock.Presumably that is why the full Cabinet have
1:12:53 > 1:12:55not discussed what the future Brexit deal will be.That is the
1:12:55 > 1:12:58astonishing thing. There has been no sort of vision of what Britain is
1:12:58 > 1:13:02going to look like after Brexit. We have got down in what the
1:13:02 > 1:13:06negotiation position for tomorrow will be. What does it look like in
1:13:06 > 1:13:09terms of immigration, trade with the rest of the world, what life will
1:13:09 > 1:13:15look like for ordinarily... Ordinary people?There are visions for this,
1:13:15 > 1:13:21but they will not agree on one. Is there such a thing as a Tory Cabinet
1:13:21 > 1:13:24Minister who could have one single vision without them all ripping each
1:13:24 > 1:13:29other's heads off? Probably not. Thank you.
1:13:29 > 1:13:30That's all for today.
1:13:30 > 1:13:33Join me again next Sunday at 11.00 here on BBC One.
1:13:33 > 1:13:36Until then, bye bye.