:00:38. > :00:44.Good morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. It would be
:00:45. > :00:46.extremely difficult, if not impossible, for an independent
:00:47. > :00:51.Scotland to join the European Union, so says the President of the
:00:52. > :00:56.European Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso, in a significant
:00:57. > :00:59.development in the independence debate. It's our top story. He has
:01:00. > :01:09.the power to bring travel chaos to the nation's capital. Bob Crow
:01:10. > :01:13.joined us for the Sunday interview. Another by-election
:01:14. > :01:18.And in the North West: Labour romps home in Wythenshawe and Sale East,
:01:19. > :01:21.but will UKIP be peering over their shoulder in May?
:01:22. > :01:21.Our new MP and UKIP's Deputy Leader join
:01:22. > :01:33.look at his decisions and priorities with the help of his chief of staff.
:01:34. > :01:42.With me, the best and brightest political panel in the business The
:01:43. > :01:47.twits will be as incessant and probably as welcome as the recent
:01:48. > :01:48.rain. A significant new development in the debate over Scottish
:01:49. > :01:54.independence this morning, the President of the European
:01:55. > :01:58.Commission, President Jose Manuel Barroso, has confirmed what the
:01:59. > :02:00.Nationalists have long denied, that an independent Scotland would have
:02:01. > :02:03.to reply to join the European Union as a new member, that it would
:02:04. > :02:08.require the agreement of all 28 member states and that would be in
:02:09. > :02:13.his words, extremely difficult, if not impossible. In case there is a
:02:14. > :02:17.new country, a new state coming out of a current member state, it will
:02:18. > :02:22.have to apply and, this is very important, the application to the
:02:23. > :02:30.union would have to be approved by all of the other member states.
:02:31. > :02:34.Countries like Spain, with the secessionist issues they have? I
:02:35. > :02:37.don't want to interfere in your democratic discussion here, but of
:02:38. > :02:43.course, it will be extremely difficult to get the approval of all
:02:44. > :02:46.of the other member states, to have a new member coming in from one
:02:47. > :02:54.member state. We have seen that that Spain has been opposing even the
:02:55. > :02:59.recognition, for instance, so it is a similar state. It is a new
:03:00. > :03:04.country. I believe it is great to be externally difficult, if not
:03:05. > :03:08.impossible. Well, he says he doesn't want to interfere, but he has just
:03:09. > :03:13.dropped a medium-sized explosive into the debate on Scottish
:03:14. > :03:17.independence? A huge story. Alex Salmond must be wondering what is
:03:18. > :03:20.going to go wrong next. His pitch to the Scottish people is based on two
:03:21. > :03:23.things, the currency union with England and the rest of the United
:03:24. > :03:31.Kingdom, which was blown apart last week, and this morning, his claims
:03:32. > :03:45.that Scotland would automatically get into the European Union has been
:03:46. > :03:48.dynamited. He's not only saying that they would have to apply, it is also
:03:49. > :03:55.saying it might be impossible to get the agreement of all 28 members to
:03:56. > :03:59.allow Scotland in. That's even more significant than the application?
:04:00. > :04:05.The reference to Spain is interesting, we talk about Catalan
:04:06. > :04:09.independence, an economic and active area that Spain does not want to be
:04:10. > :04:13.independent. About five other countries are blocking Kosovo's
:04:14. > :04:16.accession to the EU. There is no reason they would want to encourage
:04:17. > :04:22.the secessionist in their country by letting Scotland do the same. If
:04:23. > :04:25.Scotland does have to apply, and it does get in, it solves the currency
:04:26. > :04:32.problem because all new members have to accept the Euro? At the moment,
:04:33. > :04:36.the SNP are rejecting that quite strongly. What an interesting
:04:37. > :04:43.intervention today. However, I know that those arguing that Scotland
:04:44. > :04:49.should stay in the union are worried that the polls are tightening. A lot
:04:50. > :04:54.of these interventions, parents care arguments, they don't look like they
:04:55. > :04:59.are convincing the Scottish people. We haven't had any polls yet? We
:05:00. > :05:01.haven't, but we have since the currency debate was reignited in the
:05:02. > :05:07.last few weeks and it shows the polls tightening slightly. I think
:05:08. > :05:10.Alistair Darling's campaign would prefer to be much further ahead at
:05:11. > :05:14.the stage. They are worried that these technical commandments are not
:05:15. > :05:17.having much sway. Are the polls tightening slightly? They could be
:05:18. > :05:25.within the statistical margin for error. They are, but not much. Alex
:05:26. > :05:28.Salmond's main page is one of reassurance. He wants to say you can
:05:29. > :05:31.vote for independence, a pound in the pocket will be the same as
:05:32. > :05:38.before and you will still be a member of the European Union. In the
:05:39. > :05:44.last three or four matter days, both of those claims have been blown
:05:45. > :05:48.apart. Angus MacNeil has already told BBC Radio 5 Live that the
:05:49. > :05:51.remarks are nonsense and he is playing more politics. We hope to
:05:52. > :05:57.speak to the SNP's finance minister, John Swinney, a little bit later in
:05:58. > :05:59.the programme. It is not just the constant rain that London commuters
:06:00. > :06:04.have had to deal with. There was also a strike on the tube that
:06:05. > :06:08.disrupted the travel of millions. A second stoppage was on the cards,
:06:09. > :06:11.but it was called off at the last minute.
:06:12. > :06:16.The leader of the biggest underground workers union, the RMT,
:06:17. > :06:21.is Bob Crow, who has led his members into 24 strikes on the tube since
:06:22. > :06:24.2005, as well as disputes on the national rail network. Under his
:06:25. > :06:29.leadership, the union's membership has grown from 57,000 in 2002 to
:06:30. > :06:32.more than 80,000, at a time when union membership overall has been
:06:33. > :06:37.shrinking. The current dispute has seen Bob Crow squaring up to Boris
:06:38. > :06:41.Johnson over the mayor's plans to close tube station ticket offices.
:06:42. > :06:46.The 48-hour stoppage at the beginning of this month is estimated
:06:47. > :06:51.to have cost the London economy ?100 million. The two sides have agreed a
:06:52. > :06:55.truce, for now, but Mr Crow has threatened further action if the
:06:56. > :06:56.mayor imposes his changes. Bob Crow joins me now for the Sunday
:06:57. > :07:08.interview. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. You
:07:09. > :07:15.have suspended the strike for the moment. What will it take to call it
:07:16. > :07:19.off entirely? Want to know first of all wider booking office has to
:07:20. > :07:22.close. The Mayor of London made it quite clear in his election
:07:23. > :07:26.programme that the booking offices would remain open. It was strange,
:07:27. > :07:29.really, because Ken Livingstone wanted to close them down and the
:07:30. > :07:32.mayor thought it was popular to keep them open and put in his campaign to
:07:33. > :07:38.keep them open. However, we have not the news figures. We are being told
:07:39. > :07:42.only 3% of people use the booking offices. That's not true. In
:07:43. > :07:45.research done, if somebody does to a booking office with somebody sitting
:07:46. > :07:50.there and asks for a ticket of less than ?5, they are not allowed to
:07:51. > :07:57.sell them a ticket, it is madness. Do you use the ticket office? When
:07:58. > :08:02.it is open, yes. You said to ITV that he didn't. I don't know what I
:08:03. > :08:05.said to ITV, I don't know what time people use them, sometimes they are
:08:06. > :08:08.open and sometimes they are closed. People make out that these ticket
:08:09. > :08:12.office staff are people that sit behind barriers like a newsagent.
:08:13. > :08:17.I'm not knocking a newsagent, however, these people were the same
:08:18. > :08:24.people treated like Lions when they were helping people named in the
:08:25. > :08:28.terrorist incidents, taking them out of the panels. Suddenly they are
:08:29. > :08:32.lazy people that sit in ticket offices. My understanding is that
:08:33. > :08:35.the people would come from behind and be out and about now. It is the
:08:36. > :08:41.management wants to run the underground without ticket offices,
:08:42. > :08:47.isn't that their prerogative? They are paid to manage, not you, not
:08:48. > :08:50.your members, they are the managers? Managers are there to manage, and we
:08:51. > :08:53.want good managers. But we've got some really bad managers that are
:08:54. > :08:56.not looking at the railway as a whole. This is a successful
:08:57. > :09:00.industry, not an industry in decline, one of the most successful
:09:01. > :09:03.in Britain. It is moving 3.4 million people a day. All of the forecast is
:09:04. > :09:09.or it will move to 3.6 million per day. The mayor wants to run services
:09:10. > :09:12.on a Friday and Saturday night. We are not opposed to that. However, it
:09:13. > :09:17.does not make sense that if more people are going to be using the
:09:18. > :09:20.tube on Friday and Saturday, coming home at two o'clock three o'clock in
:09:21. > :09:27.the morning, a lot of people drinking, a lot of people not
:09:28. > :09:31.dragging, why take 1000 people of the network that come to the aid of
:09:32. > :09:36.people that are looking to people? I want to show you this picture. This
:09:37. > :09:43.is you. Taking a break in Brazil, I think it is. I was trying to copy
:09:44. > :09:47.you. You deserve this break because you have done a fantastic job for
:09:48. > :09:51.your members. Yes, I don't see what that has got to do with it. Let s
:09:52. > :09:54.get every editor of the daily newspapers and see where they go on
:09:55. > :10:00.their holidays, I would like to know. What I choose to do... I'm not
:10:01. > :10:03.attacking you for doing that... You've got a picture up there, I've
:10:04. > :10:07.got to say, why don't they go and follow Boris Johnson when he was
:10:08. > :10:12.away on holiday, when the riots were taking place in London, and he
:10:13. > :10:14.refused to come back? Why don't they go and view the editors of
:10:15. > :10:18.newspapers, where they go on holiday? Why do they look at you
:10:19. > :10:22.when you go on holiday? They sometimes do, actually. The basic
:10:23. > :10:28.pay of a tube driver will soon be ?52,000. Ticket office workers are
:10:29. > :10:33.already earning over ?35,000. Never mind a holiday on Copacabana beach,
:10:34. > :10:37.or membership by your house for what you have done for them? When you
:10:38. > :10:40.look at the papers this morning I see that Wayne Rooney is going to
:10:41. > :10:45.get a ?70 million deal over the next four deals. I see NHS doctors are
:10:46. > :10:53.getting ?3000 a shift. I see a lot of people that do a lot of people
:10:54. > :10:57.that, in my opinion, don't do anything for society. The top paid
:10:58. > :11:00.people in this country should be doctors and nurses. Unfortunately,
:11:01. > :11:04.we live in a jungle. If you are not strong, the bosses will walk all
:11:05. > :11:07.over you. The reason why we got good terms and conditions is because we
:11:08. > :11:12.fought for them. The reality is all of these three political parties,
:11:13. > :11:16.liberals, Tories and Labour, they have all put no programme that to
:11:17. > :11:20.defend working people. So we have to do it on our own. And that is why
:11:21. > :11:23.you have done such a great job for your members and why union
:11:24. > :11:26.membership has been rising, people want to be part of a successful
:11:27. > :11:32.operation. But it has come at a cost for less well-paid workers, who
:11:33. > :11:37.travel on the cheap? If everyone believes if London Underground tube
:11:38. > :11:40.workers take a pay freeze they are going to redistribute the money to
:11:41. > :11:45.the rest of the workers that work on the cheap... But the people that
:11:46. > :11:49.travel on the tube, let's look at some of them, they are the ones that
:11:50. > :11:54.suffer from your strike action. The starting salary of a cheap driver
:11:55. > :12:01.now, ?48,000. The starting salary for a nurses only ?26,000, ?22, 00
:12:02. > :12:04.for a young policeman, ?27,000 for a teacher starting out. As your
:12:05. > :12:12.members have spread, they have had to live through 24 strikes in 1
:12:13. > :12:19.years to push up your members wages. It's I'm all right Jack? The
:12:20. > :12:24.have put a pay freeze on by conservatives and liberals. The
:12:25. > :12:28.police constables, so have the teachers. We have had the ability to
:12:29. > :12:33.go and fight. The reality is, at the end of the day, as I have said
:12:34. > :12:38.before, no one is going to put up the cause for workers. Not one
:12:39. > :12:42.single party in parliament are fighting the cause for workers. They
:12:43. > :12:46.all support privatisation, they all support keeping the anti-trade union
:12:47. > :12:50.laws, they all support illegal wars around the world. Unless they have a
:12:51. > :12:54.fighting trade union, our members pay would be as low as some others.
:12:55. > :12:57.You said we could not care less if we have 1 million strikes. But these
:12:58. > :13:04.people, the lower paid people who travel on the tube, who need it as
:13:05. > :13:07.an essential service, they care Of course they care, I've said before
:13:08. > :13:13.that I apologise to the troubling public for the dispute that took
:13:14. > :13:19.place. 24 strikes in 13 years? It two to tango. If the boy never
:13:20. > :13:24.imposed terms and conditions on us against our will... But you've got
:13:25. > :13:30.great terms and conditions! But it's a constant battle, they are trying
:13:31. > :13:34.to change them. Drivers are having their pay going up to ?50,000. You
:13:35. > :13:38.said they are making it worse, it is going up. They are trying to make
:13:39. > :13:43.things worse for workers. You said at the start of the interview that
:13:44. > :13:48.the tube strike cost ?100 million in two days. It means that when members
:13:49. > :13:50.go to work for two days it is worth ?100 million. That demonstrates what
:13:51. > :13:55.they are worth. Only a fighting trade union can defend workers out
:13:56. > :14:00.there. Your members should enjoy what you have got for them, because
:14:01. > :14:03.it's not going to last, is it? Technology will change the whole way
:14:04. > :14:09.your business operates. As Karl Marx says, you said I was a mixture of
:14:10. > :14:14.Karl Marx, Only Fools And Horses and the Sopranos. I thought that was
:14:15. > :14:20.quite funny... The Karl Marx part of it, the only thing that is constant
:14:21. > :14:25.is change. We have been crying out for new technology. But for who To
:14:26. > :14:29.put people on the dole, so they can't do anything and do anything
:14:30. > :14:34.for society, or technology so everybody benefits, lower fares
:14:35. > :14:38.better service and better terms and conditions for the workers. But you
:14:39. > :14:42.have made Labour so expensive on the underground that management now has
:14:43. > :14:46.a huge incentive to substitute technology for Labour. And that s
:14:47. > :14:49.what it's going to do, it is closing the ticket offices and very soon,
:14:50. > :14:55.starting in 2016, the driverless trains coming. What I am saying is
:14:56. > :15:06.that your members should enjoy this because it's not going to last.
:15:07. > :15:16.Driverless trains are not coming in, it is not safe. We have them in
:15:17. > :15:20.Nuremberg, Shanghai, Sao Paulo, it is not safe? These are new lines
:15:21. > :15:26.that have been built so that when it breaks down, people can get out of
:15:27. > :15:32.the tunnel. Would you want to be stuck on a summers day on the
:15:33. > :15:37.Northern line? A pregnant woman who cannot get off the train? Absolute
:15:38. > :15:42.panic that takes place, the reality is simple, it is a nonsense. It s
:15:43. > :15:48.not going to happen because it is a Victorian network. On Docklands
:15:49. > :15:57.railway for example it is driverless but when the train breaks down, it
:15:58. > :16:04.is above ground on a very small section. All of these other cities
:16:05. > :16:16.managed to have it. You remind me about Henry Ford in the 1930s when
:16:17. > :16:24.he said, you see that robot over their, he cannot buy a car. All
:16:25. > :16:30.sorts of new jobs are being created all the time in other areas. Come
:16:31. > :16:34.back to the ticket offices, not many people use the ticket offices any
:16:35. > :16:38.more, what is wrong with getting the stuff out of the ticket office on to
:16:39. > :16:43.the concourses, meeting and greeting, helping disabled people
:16:44. > :16:49.and tourists and making it a better service? They can do more on the
:16:50. > :16:54.concourse than they can in the ticket office. Andrew, he took the
:16:55. > :17:02.decision to close down every single ticket office. You cannot compare
:17:03. > :17:08.for example Chesham with the likes of Heathrow. Are you telling me
:17:09. > :17:15.people are going to be on a long transatlantic flight, arrived at
:17:16. > :17:21.Heathrow and cannot get a ticket. The stuff will be redeployed on the
:17:22. > :17:27.concourse. The simple problem is that it is not just about the
:17:28. > :17:31.booking office, it is about people having a visual. If you are
:17:32. > :17:38.partially sighted, you cannot use the machines. If British is not your
:17:39. > :17:45.first language, you cannot use the offices. How many languages do your
:17:46. > :17:55.members speak? I don't know, I struggle with English. The machines
:17:56. > :18:01.can speak many different languages. They are dehumanising things. You
:18:02. > :18:06.phone the bank, all you hear is press one for this, two for that.
:18:07. > :18:09.People want to hear it human being and what makes the London
:18:10. > :18:16.Underground so precious is that people want to see people. Having
:18:17. > :18:22.well-dressed, motivated people out on the concourse, what part of that
:18:23. > :18:26.don't you like? They will be on the concourse and they will have
:18:27. > :18:30.machines. The fact is that London Underground did a risk assessment of
:18:31. > :18:35.closing down their booking offices and it is clear that if you are
:18:36. > :18:41.disabled, if you are partially sighted, London Underground becomes
:18:42. > :18:49.more dangerous. You are posing the closing of ticket offices, opposing
:18:50. > :19:01.driverless trains, when you opposed to the Oyster card when it came in?
:19:02. > :19:08.No, Oyster cards, it is how you deal with it. It is not the only way
:19:09. > :19:13.They should supplement the staff and the job. If more people used the
:19:14. > :19:19.London Underground system, you want more staff to deal with them. Let's
:19:20. > :19:31.look at your mandate to strike. Of your members who work on the Tube,
:19:32. > :19:37.only 40% bothered to vote. Only 30% voted for the strike, so 70%
:19:38. > :19:41.actually didn't vote to strike of your members, but the strike went
:19:42. > :19:47.ahead. Isn't it right to have a higher threshold before you can
:19:48. > :19:51.cause this disruption? It would be lovely if everyone voted but the
:19:52. > :19:57.Tories took that away. We used to have ballots at the workplace. What
:19:58. > :20:06.I'm trying to say to you is that we used to have a ballot box at the
:20:07. > :20:10.workplace and the turnouts were higher. The Tories believe that if
:20:11. > :20:16.they can have a secret ballot where ballot papers went to people's home
:20:17. > :20:20.addresses, where they could be persuaded by the bosses, votes would
:20:21. > :20:28.be different. Let's go back to the workplace ballot because you get a
:20:29. > :20:32.bigger turnout. Will the RMT re-affiliate to the Labour Party? I
:20:33. > :20:41.have no intention to. We got expelled from the Labour Party. But
:20:42. > :20:49.you will give some money to the Labour councils? Those that support
:20:50. > :20:56.our basic policies get money, we don't give money directly to MPs, we
:20:57. > :21:05.give it to constituencies. Are you going to stand for re-election in
:21:06. > :21:10.2016? I might do, I might not. You haven't decided yet? No, but more
:21:11. > :21:18.than likely I will do. And will you stand again as an anti-EU candidate?
:21:19. > :21:25.Yes, I am standing in London, and right across, completely different
:21:26. > :21:29.to UKIP's policies. They are anti-European, they believe all of
:21:30. > :21:36.the faults of Europe are down to the immigrants. We are anti-European
:21:37. > :21:42.Union. If London Underground is as badly run as you think, why don t
:21:43. > :21:48.you run for mayor? That is down the road, it has not come up yet. I m
:21:49. > :21:55.not ruling anything out. I'm not ruling out getting your job on the
:21:56. > :22:01.Sunday Politics. You have got to retire as well, you have got to put
:22:02. > :22:06.your feet up. I will get you to renegotiate my package. Shall we go
:22:07. > :22:19.on strike first? If I could have your wages, I would have two trips
:22:20. > :22:22.to Rio every year. Good luck. And if you're in the London region they'll
:22:23. > :22:29.have more on the Tube strike later in the programme. Let's get back to
:22:30. > :22:38.those comments from Jose Manuel Barroso, and reaction to these
:22:39. > :22:44.comments from John Swinney. Scottish Nationalists denied all along you
:22:45. > :22:50.would have to reapply, we have now heard it without any caveats, you
:22:51. > :22:57.will and you might not get in. I think Jose Manuel Barroso's comments
:22:58. > :23:03.were preposterous this morning. He compared the situation to the one in
:23:04. > :23:08.Kosovo. Britain is the member, Scotland is not the member. If you
:23:09. > :23:14.go independent, you will have to reapply, he says. All of the
:23:15. > :23:17.arrangements we have in place are compatible with the workings of the
:23:18. > :23:21.European Union because we have been part of it for 40 years. The
:23:22. > :23:28.propositions we put forward work about essentially negotiating the
:23:29. > :23:34.continuity of Scotland's membership of the European Union and that
:23:35. > :23:47.position has now been explained and debated and discussed and reinforced
:23:48. > :23:49.by comments made by experts. We are talking about the president of the
:23:50. > :23:55.European commission and we have spoken to him since he gave that
:23:56. > :23:58.interview on the BBC this morning, it was an intervention that he made
:23:59. > :24:06.that he wanted to lay out that Scotland should be in no doubt that
:24:07. > :24:15.if they vote for independence they will have to apply for European
:24:16. > :24:21.membership and they may not get it if it is vetoed by other members.
:24:22. > :24:25.What he didn't say is that no state of the European Union have indicated
:24:26. > :24:32.they would veto Scottish membership. The Spanish foreign
:24:33. > :24:36.minister has. They have said that if there is an agreed process within
:24:37. > :24:40.the UK that Scotland becomes an independent country, then Spain has
:24:41. > :24:44.got nothing to say about the issue. That indicates to me clearly that
:24:45. > :24:49.the Spanish government will have no stance to take on the Scottish
:24:50. > :24:53.membership of the European Union because it is important that
:24:54. > :24:58.Scotland is already part of the European Union, our laws are
:24:59. > :25:02.compatible with the European Union and we play our part. The only
:25:03. > :25:11.threat to Scotland's participation in the European Union is the
:25:12. > :25:19.potential in/out referendum that David Cameron wants to have in 017.
:25:20. > :25:24.It has not been a great week for you, has it? Everything you seem to
:25:25. > :25:29.want, the monetary union, that has been blown out of the water by the
:25:30. > :25:35.Westminster parties, now Jose Manuel Barroso has said you will have to
:25:36. > :25:41.reapply to the European Union, it has not been a good week. You will
:25:42. > :25:46.follow the debate closely, and the Sunday newspapers are full about the
:25:47. > :25:54.backlash taking place within Scotland at the bullying remarks of
:25:55. > :25:59.the Chancellor and his cohorts. Is Jose Manuel Barroso a bully is well
:26:00. > :26:06.now? He is making an indirect comparison between Scotland and
:26:07. > :26:12.Kosovo. If you vote for independence and you do have two apply again to
:26:13. > :26:18.join, if you do get in it solves your currency problem because you
:26:19. > :26:21.will have to accept the euro. We have set out an option on the
:26:22. > :26:31.currency arrangements which would be to establish the currency union You
:26:32. > :26:37.would have to adopt the euro. That's not rate because you have to be part
:26:38. > :26:41.of the exchange-rate mechanism for two years before you can apply for
:26:42. > :26:46.membership and an independent Scotland has no intention of signing
:26:47. > :26:50.up to the exchange rate mechanism or the single currency. We are
:26:51. > :26:55.concentrating on setting out our arguments for maintaining the pound
:26:56. > :27:03.sterling, which is in the interests of Scotland and the UK. Thank you
:27:04. > :27:06.for joining us this morning. This week's least surprising news
:27:07. > :27:09.was that Labour won the safe seat of Wythenshawe and Sale East in a
:27:10. > :27:12.by-election, following the death of the MP Paul Goggins. With the result
:27:13. > :27:16.so predictable, all eyes were on whether this would be the sixth time
:27:17. > :27:19.this parliament that UKIP would come second. And whether they'd chip away
:27:20. > :27:23.at Labour's vote, not just the Tories and the Lib Dems. Adam stayed
:27:24. > :27:33.up all night to find out what it all meant. Forget the hype. Forget the
:27:34. > :27:45.theorising. And yes - everyone has a theory. UKIP are learning from us.
:27:46. > :27:50.What have they picked up from you? To be silly. Thanks to this week's
:27:51. > :27:53.by-election we've got some hard evidence in paper form that helps
:27:54. > :27:59.answer the question: How are UKIP doing? Turns out the answer is well,
:28:00. > :28:09.but not well enough to beat Labour. I'm therefore claim -- declare that
:28:10. > :28:12.Mike Cane is elected. So UKIP have come second and increased their
:28:13. > :28:15.share of the vote quite significantly. But their performance
:28:16. > :28:17.isn't as good as their performances in some of the other by-elections
:28:18. > :28:26.this parliament. Just don't suggest to them that their bandwagon has
:28:27. > :28:34.ground to a halt. A week ago you'd told me you were going to win, what
:28:35. > :28:41.happened? No, I didn't, I said I wanted to win. My mistake. How are
:28:42. > :28:46.you feeling? It is a Labour stronghold, we always knew it was
:28:47. > :28:52.going to be a fight. Labour were running scared of letting us present
:28:53. > :28:55.our arguments. UKIP's campaign in Wythenshawe didn't point to the
:28:56. > :28:58.right but to the left, with leaflets that branded Labour as a party of
:28:59. > :29:02.millionaires who didn't care about the working class. It wasn't a
:29:03. > :29:08.winning strategy but it did help them beat the Tories who focused on
:29:09. > :29:10.dog mess and potholes instead. Professional UKIP-watcher Rob Ford
:29:11. > :29:16.from Manchester Uni thinks they could be on the right track. He s
:29:17. > :29:19.analysed the views of 5,000 UKIP voters for a new book, which could
:29:20. > :29:31.confound the received wisdom about the party. The common media image of
:29:32. > :29:39.the typical UKIP voter is a ruddy faced golf club and -- member from
:29:40. > :29:44.the south-east of the UK and many UKIP activists do resemble that
:29:45. > :29:48.stereotype to some extent, they do pick up a lot of activists from the
:29:49. > :29:53.Conservative party, but UKIP voters are older, more working class, more
:29:54. > :29:59.likely to live in Northern, urban areas, and they are much more
:30:00. > :30:02.anti-system than anti-EU. And they're precisely the voters that
:30:03. > :30:05.the Tory MP David Mowat needs if he's to hold on to his narrow
:30:06. > :30:18.majority in the constituency just down the road. Do you have a UKIP
:30:19. > :30:22.strategy in your seat? Our UKIP strategy is to point out that if
:30:23. > :30:26.they want a referendum on if they want to be in the EU or not, there
:30:27. > :30:28.is one way to get it, for the Conservatives to form their next
:30:29. > :30:35.government and for me to be their MP. UKIP could accidentally destroy
:30:36. > :30:41.what they want? I'm not sure it will be accidental. People need to
:30:42. > :30:46.realise that if Ed Miliband is the Prime Minister, there will be no
:30:47. > :30:52.referendum on the EU and UKIP may have made their point but they would
:30:53. > :31:01.not have got their referendum. Over at UKIP local HQ, it is tidying up
:31:02. > :31:05.time. Not helping, Nigel? I had major surgery on the 19th of
:31:06. > :31:09.November and I am still weak as a kitten. I can barely lift a pint
:31:10. > :31:13.with my right hand, it is as serious as that. The answer is, Carreon
:31:14. > :31:17.chaps, you're all doing a very good job. There will be carrying on to
:31:18. > :31:21.the European elections in May, which will provide more evidence of if the
:31:22. > :31:28.UKIP and wagon is powering on or if it is just parked. -- bandwagon
:31:29. > :31:32.With me now is the Conservative MEP Vicky fraud and UKIP director of
:31:33. > :31:36.medication is Patrick O'Flynn. He will also be a candidate in the
:31:37. > :31:39.upcoming European elections. You came second in Manchester, but it
:31:40. > :31:47.was not a close second. -- Vicky Ford. There is nothing that is a
:31:48. > :31:52.game changer? I think it is very unusual for any insurgent party
:31:53. > :31:57.like the liberals used to be, to actually win a safe seat of the
:31:58. > :32:05.opposition. Those shocks, going back to Walkington etc, it tended to be
:32:06. > :32:10.winning seats against an unpopular government. We did extraordinarily
:32:11. > :32:14.well in Wythenshawe. Labour compressed the campaign down to the
:32:15. > :32:17.shortest possible time and maxed out the postal vote. Whatever we think
:32:18. > :32:21.about Labour, they do have an efficient machine, lots of union
:32:22. > :32:27.activists signed a lot of people with a lot of know-how. It pushed
:32:28. > :32:33.you into third place and showed the increasing irrelevance of the Tories
:32:34. > :32:37.in the North? Tory minded voters in the North Sea more inclined to vote
:32:38. > :32:42.for UKIP than you? I think by-elections are by-elections. The
:32:43. > :32:47.same day, we took a seat from Labour in Birmingham. Well, that was a
:32:48. > :32:50.by-election as well, so we should discount that as well. You should
:32:51. > :32:55.learn from them, and we need to look forward to the elections in 201 .
:32:56. > :33:02.That is in May this year, when we have a chance to really grab this
:33:03. > :33:07.change in Europe, grab this change that we were talking about just now.
:33:08. > :33:09.You don't worry, particularly in the north, if people want to vote
:33:10. > :33:15.against Labour your supporters are drifting to UKIP? I think people
:33:16. > :33:18.vote UKIP in a European election and they have done that for many years.
:33:19. > :33:23.They vote that because they want change. The problem is, Patrick s
:33:24. > :33:28.party have had MEPs since 1999 and they cannot deliver that change
:33:29. > :33:33.They can't because they don't have seats in Westminster. It was on that
:33:34. > :33:38.video, the only way we are going to get the change we want in Europe is
:33:39. > :33:44.to have that referendum and have the renegotiation, and that means vote
:33:45. > :33:50.Tory. What do you say to that? Let's get real, the Conservative Party has
:33:51. > :33:55.not won a Parliamentary majority in 22 years. But the only way you will
:33:56. > :33:59.get a referendum, if that is what motivates you, and with UKIP it is,
:34:00. > :34:02.the only way it will be a referendum on Europe in this country as if
:34:03. > :34:06.there is a majority Conservative government at the next election And
:34:07. > :34:12.you could well stop that from happening? I don't accept that. I
:34:13. > :34:15.believe, just as we forced David Cameron and into a referendum pledge
:34:16. > :34:19.he explicitly ruled out making before through our success, and I
:34:20. > :34:22.was there in PMQs, when his MPs asked him and he said it would not
:34:23. > :34:25.be in the national interest because he didn't want to leave, our
:34:26. > :34:29.electoral success forced that pledge. I believe by winning the
:34:30. > :34:34.European action this May we can force Ed Miliband, again, against
:34:35. > :34:37.his will, to match that pledge. Then, whatever formulation varies in
:34:38. > :34:43.the next Parliament, we will get a referendum. Labour MPs have just had
:34:44. > :34:49.the chance to say we want a referendum. They refused to do it.
:34:50. > :34:53.The only way you are going to get a renegotiation, a change in our
:34:54. > :34:56.relationship with Europe and an in or out referendum is to have a
:34:57. > :34:59.Conservative Government. Please UKIP, stop pretending that you can
:35:00. > :35:06.deliver, because you don't deliver and you don't... We have delivered,
:35:07. > :35:12.we forced David Cameron to give a pledge for a referendum he didn t
:35:13. > :35:15.want to make. We will know if you are right about Ed Miliband or not,
:35:16. > :35:21.you will have to tell us going into the campaign. If you are wrong, what
:35:22. > :35:25.do you do then? There are still loads of reasons for people to vote
:35:26. > :35:30.UKIP. A referendum is one thing David Cameron, and I asked him
:35:31. > :35:36.directly, thermally wants to stay in. He wants to be the Edward Heath
:35:37. > :35:40.of the 21st century. The Tories are going to say, vote UKIP, get Ed
:35:41. > :35:45.Miliband. What would you say to that? I would say we have probably
:35:46. > :35:49.maxed out the Tory vote we are going to get because David Cameron has
:35:50. > :35:53.been incredibly helpful in sending them in our direction. Our potential
:35:54. > :35:58.for growth now, would we are concentrating on, his those
:35:59. > :36:02.disenchanted former Labour voters and more and more of them are coming
:36:03. > :36:07.towards us on things like immigration and law and order. We
:36:08. > :36:11.want to renegotiate our relationship with Europe. We need to have people
:36:12. > :36:15.who are going to turn up to negotiate with people like Barroso.
:36:16. > :36:23.That meant a Prime Minister that is not Ed Miliband but David Cameron.
:36:24. > :36:30.UKIP MEPs do not turn up to defenders. If President Hollande is
:36:31. > :36:32.as good as his word and says there will be no substantial
:36:33. > :36:37.renegotiation, certainly no treaty change this side of 2017 when he is
:36:38. > :36:43.up for the election, what do you do then? He is a French Socialist Prime
:36:44. > :36:48.Minister, I don't expect him to agree. But you can't bring anything
:36:49. > :36:56.of substance back with these negotiations. Then people will vote
:36:57. > :37:02.to leave. The Prime Minister has been very clear that British public
:37:03. > :37:06.opinion is on a knife edge and unless we get what we want from a
:37:07. > :37:12.renegotiation, we will leave. You would vote to leave? Let's see what
:37:13. > :37:16.we get with the deal on the table in 2017. If the status quo was what we
:37:17. > :37:23.have today, I would vote to leave. But I want to renegotiate. We will
:37:24. > :37:26.have to move on. For those viewers lucky enough to live in the East of
:37:27. > :37:30.England, they will be seeing more of Patrick in a moment. You are
:37:31. > :37:35.watching Sunday Politics. Coming up in just over 20 minutes, I will be
:37:36. > :37:45.talking about, what else, the weather, with our political
:37:46. > :37:51.I'm Arif Ansari. Coming up in the North West: Labour romps home in
:37:52. > :37:58.Wythenshawe and Sale East, but will UKIP be peering over their shoulder
:37:59. > :38:03.in May? Because the local elections are on the same day as the European
:38:04. > :38:07.elections, that gives us a chance in the North West to make the
:38:08. > :38:10.breakthroughs. And joining me in the studio this
:38:11. > :38:13.week, the North West's newest MP, Mike Kane, Labour's winner in that
:38:14. > :38:19.by`election, and UKIP's Deputy Leader and North West Euro MP, Paul
:38:20. > :38:25.Nuttall. Congratulations. Has it sunk any you are the new MP? Not
:38:26. > :38:29.quite, wait until I go to Westminster a week on Wednesday It
:38:30. > :38:37.is humbling to be the new MP for your town. Sad circumstances with
:38:38. > :38:41.the death of Paul Goggins who was an extraordinary, dedicated public
:38:42. > :38:46.servant, but I am honoured to be elected with Labour's best result in
:38:47. > :38:51.that constituency. But you need to wait a week until
:38:52. > :38:56.there is a recess and you walk officially the MP.
:38:57. > :39:03.Crush you are. A good result for Labour. A good result for us! We
:39:04. > :39:09.went up of 15% in a period of four years and it set us up well for May.
:39:10. > :39:17.But you would want to congratulate Mike! Congratulations, Mike.
:39:18. > :39:21.So let's start by taking a look at the result in Wythenshawe and Sale
:39:22. > :39:25.East. Labour won 55% of the vote, up 11% on the general election. UKIP
:39:26. > :39:28.shot into second place, up 15% to 18. The Conservatives, on 15, were
:39:29. > :39:32.down almost half. And the Liberal Democrats dived from 22% to just
:39:33. > :39:39.below five, the minimum needed to retain their ?500 election deposit.
:39:40. > :39:44.But what does it all tell us ahead of May's local and European
:39:45. > :39:48.elections. Euan Doak reports. It was like a coronation, and yet
:39:49. > :39:52.there were still a couple of hours before the votes had finished being
:39:53. > :39:56.counted. But it was a measure of the comfort with which Labour held this
:39:57. > :40:05.seat that the leader had already planned his visit.
:40:06. > :40:08.There was only one party in British politics that could stand up for the
:40:09. > :40:12.whole of the country. An increased majority, despite high
:40:13. > :40:15.hopes from UKIP. The new kids on the block finished second for the sixth
:40:16. > :40:18.successive by`election. But in this region, they have never won a
:40:19. > :40:22.first`past`the`post election, their only councillor being a Conservative
:40:23. > :40:26.defector. We have just completed our
:40:27. > :40:30.selections for the European elections and the women have done
:40:31. > :40:33.amazingly well. Their leader keen to broaden the
:40:34. > :40:36.party's appeal, but optimistic about their chances in May.
:40:37. > :40:42.Have a membership in the North is growing and many people will have
:40:43. > :40:47.taken heart and an years either result from Wythenshawe. It is a
:40:48. > :40:50.matter of time and because the local elections are on the same day as the
:40:51. > :40:54.European elections, that gives us a chance in the North West to make the
:40:55. > :40:57.first breakthroughs. And that could spell trouble for the
:40:58. > :41:00.Conservatives, after they were pushed into third place here. A
:41:01. > :41:04.standard by`election kicking for the party in power, perhaps, but a
:41:05. > :41:08.strong UKIP showing in May could take Tory votes and the loss of key
:41:09. > :41:11.seats in Trafford Council, the only metropolitan council they control in
:41:12. > :41:15.the region. We need to fight hard in Trafford.
:41:16. > :41:22.One thing that comes across in my constituency over the road or in the
:41:23. > :41:27.Sale East wards is the number of people on the doorstep who will say
:41:28. > :41:32.Trafford Council is very well run. For the Lib Dems, the story was
:41:33. > :41:39.worse. Please, have some reaction! `` give
:41:40. > :41:43.us some reaction. Bundled into fourth, they now face
:41:44. > :41:46.being bundled out of town halls across the North West. But are UKIP
:41:47. > :41:50.set to challenge the red rosette in the North West?
:41:51. > :41:55.And we are also joined now by Dr Rob Ford, an expert on UKIP, at the
:41:56. > :42:02.University of Manchester. What about the result? It was a solid but not
:42:03. > :42:09.spectacular result for UKIP. Their main goal was to push Conservative
:42:10. > :42:13.`` the Conservative party into third place so we are the local opposition
:42:14. > :42:19.to Labour in this seat and if you are not happy with Labour, we are
:42:20. > :42:22.the only ones that can challenge. But they are only three points ahead
:42:23. > :42:28.of the Tories who would just say they will bounce back by the general
:42:29. > :42:33.election. It probably was not as good a result as they would have
:42:34. > :42:38.hoped for, but demographically, it was not a good seat for them, not as
:42:39. > :42:41.working class as some of the seats where they do better. They can put
:42:42. > :42:46.the squeeze on the Conservative vote in the way the Liberal Democrats
:42:47. > :42:53.have the way they have bolted into second place. So how well have they
:42:54. > :42:58.done? Solidly, not as well as they would have hoped but if people think
:42:59. > :43:03.this is a severe setback, that is a misunderstanding.
:43:04. > :43:07.How worried should the Tories and the Liberal Democrats be? The Tories
:43:08. > :43:11.should be worried about their health in the North of the country because
:43:12. > :43:18.again, they have been pushed into third big UKIP. UKIP are the
:43:19. > :43:25.opposition to Labour in the North. No breakthrough. I said three weeks
:43:26. > :43:31.ago we would finish second, around 20%, so we expected this, it is not
:43:32. > :43:35.a perfect constituency. This is the fifth time we finished second to
:43:36. > :43:40.Labour in the North of England in by`elections. I think we will go on
:43:41. > :43:43.and do well here in May in the European elections where we are
:43:44. > :43:51.pushing for three seats, on the local elections. You were second and
:43:52. > :43:58.that is a success, but we behind Labour, not even close. `` far
:43:59. > :44:03.behind. And only a small bit behind the Tories. It was all about
:44:04. > :44:08.finishing second and keeping the momentum going. It was a short
:44:09. > :44:14.campaign, people got a postal vote on February the 1st, not one to get
:44:15. > :44:18.our message out, very difficult But you were not very quick, you
:44:19. > :44:25.selected your candidate on the Sunday and waited until the Thursday
:44:26. > :44:29.to tell us who it was. There needs to be a debate about postal voting
:44:30. > :44:37.because since 2,000, postal votes OnDemand, it has exploded and it is
:44:38. > :44:45.not good for democracy. 42% were postal votes, is that a problem It
:44:46. > :44:48.was Labour's best result in that constituency and it has implications
:44:49. > :44:58.across the North West. Other marginal seats, we have failed.
:44:59. > :45:04.Seats would go away but up the next election with anywhere near the
:45:05. > :45:08.swing we achieved in Wythenshawe. He is not wrong, but 2015 is not the
:45:09. > :45:14.last election. There will be another in 2020 and in all the seats were
:45:15. > :45:20.Labour sweeps into office, UKIP are in second place. By 2020, those
:45:21. > :45:24.disgruntled with Labour or potentially lead to healthy
:45:25. > :45:29.challenges. This is not a short`term political
:45:30. > :45:34.movement. It is a long game we are playing. We are not a pressure group
:45:35. > :45:39.but a political party and we want to make sure we are Labour's opposition
:45:40. > :45:45.in the North we can also take seats. Is there a danger people will say
:45:46. > :45:53.UKIP is not a big threat? The difference was that UKIP, the Tories
:45:54. > :45:58.they did not have the people on the ground. Labour is stronger, we have
:45:59. > :46:02.had two fantastic MPs, with Paul Goggins. I am a locally rooted
:46:03. > :46:08.candidate and it was a fantastic result. We stuck to the issues.
:46:09. > :46:16.Other parties started to talk about the process and postal votes, we
:46:17. > :46:21.talked about pressures at Wythenshawe Hospital, council cuts,
:46:22. > :46:28.and the cost of living crisis. So you are more in touch? I want to
:46:29. > :46:31.come back to the postal vote issue. Because you have councillors were
:46:32. > :46:39.ready in place on the ground, you sign up supporters for postal
:46:40. > :46:45.votes, there is a 72 hour window... Nobody is forcing them to vote! It
:46:46. > :46:50.is bad for democracy. You should read the literature and make your
:46:51. > :46:58.decisions based on policy but you cannot do that with a 72 hour window
:46:59. > :47:07.to get that literature out. Turnout was 28%, he is right about
:47:08. > :47:11.that. It was a February by`election and that is run of the mill but we
:47:12. > :47:17.achieved the best ever result on a lower turnout so that the small The
:47:18. > :47:22.issue of postal votes, Paul Goggins was a massive champion for the
:47:23. > :47:27.chronically sick and disabled. Which members would you remove the postal
:47:28. > :47:31.vote from? If you want a postal vote, you should apply and give a
:47:32. > :47:38.good reason, it you chronically ill, disabled, elderly, you are in the
:47:39. > :47:42.armed services, not postal vote on demand, because these guys just sign
:47:43. > :47:46.up their own supporters. So a pretty good night for my studio
:47:47. > :47:49.guests, but less so for the other major parties. We described Sale as
:47:50. > :47:52.all canals and cappuccinos the other week. And Elaine Dunkley is there
:47:53. > :47:55.for you this morning, with a couple of MPs. Have you found those
:47:56. > :48:04.cappuccinos? I have got the cappuccinos. We are
:48:05. > :48:10.down by the waterside in sale. We have got the Liberal Democrat MP
:48:11. > :48:16.Andrew Stone all joining us and the Conservative MP for Lancaster and
:48:17. > :48:21.Fleetwood. It was not a great result for the Liberal Democrats in the
:48:22. > :48:32.by`election. It certainly was not but it is the reverse we got in the
:48:33. > :48:35.by`election in the last by`election when Labour lost. We have done a lot
:48:36. > :48:42.of the people dreaming, pensions, income tax. We will put that message
:48:43. > :48:46.across very strongly. It was not fought well, Nick Clegg was in the
:48:47. > :48:53.North West and did not swing by what message is that? We put in the
:48:54. > :48:59.resources we had and we had an excellent candidate. We put our best
:49:00. > :49:04.foot forward but we have more work. Would you disappointed Nick Clegg
:49:05. > :49:08.did not rouse the troops? These things are taken at a higher level
:49:09. > :49:12.than me but I do not believe David Cameron came either. This was
:49:13. > :49:15.Labour's strongest seat and they have one and that is the
:49:16. > :49:20.surprisingly story. I do not think so!
:49:21. > :49:27.David Cameron did not, either, how are you feeling? It was
:49:28. > :49:32.disappointing. We had a good local candidate and it did not work out.
:49:33. > :49:38.It was not a disaster that was predicted in terms of a sweep by
:49:39. > :49:43.UKIP. It is a Labour win in a Labour area and credit to Paul Goggins the
:49:44. > :49:47.previous MP, who was respected for the wiki did around here. He secured
:49:48. > :49:53.the victory in a sensible Labour to continue. You are going to be
:49:54. > :49:59.stepping down, will use secure a victory for the liberal Democrats?
:50:00. > :50:03.Absolutely, I will make sure in the next 15 months my successor is
:50:04. > :50:10.elected and across Greater Manchester that we return Liberal
:50:11. > :50:19.Democrat MPs. You have a slim majority. 333. Thank you very much!
:50:20. > :50:23.You are always sweating in politics but when you look at what we
:50:24. > :50:28.achieved, 12 extra seats in the North West, and we are hoping to do
:50:29. > :50:32.more and defends the existing seats. That is what the game is about and
:50:33. > :50:37.by`elections are never an indicator of what happens in a general
:50:38. > :50:43.election. There is disappointment in this by`election, only 29% of people
:50:44. > :50:48.bothered to turn out, and that is a reflection on all the parties.
:50:49. > :50:55.But are you rolling with the punches? What can you do to make
:50:56. > :51:00.sure people vote for you? We are the only party who put forward a
:51:01. > :51:04.long`term economic plan and that has stuck to that and is delivering in
:51:05. > :51:10.terms of getting this country out of the mess the government left it in.
:51:11. > :51:15.It is a good job he had Liberal Democrats alongside him to get the
:51:16. > :51:20.details right on tax and pensions and the pupil premium, and making
:51:21. > :51:26.sure we have a fairer society as well as a stronger economy.
:51:27. > :51:34.We will get more rounds in of these after the show, back to the studio!
:51:35. > :51:38.I think you are even interesting some dogs in local politics, which
:51:39. > :51:43.is a first for us! How worried should they be?
:51:44. > :51:50.The Liberal Democrats over the longer period `` over a long period
:51:51. > :51:55.built themselves up as the opposition to Labour and their brand
:51:56. > :51:59.is damaged in this part of the world.
:52:00. > :52:03.If I was his successor, would be worried about my chances. Labour
:52:04. > :52:07.could be sweeping back the vote they lost to the Liberal Democrats in the
:52:08. > :52:10.past. They were hoping to hold their
:52:11. > :52:15.deposit at the minimum and this is a reminder that there is no recovery.
:52:16. > :52:19.They are struggling because the vote they picked up in the past was from
:52:20. > :52:23.Labour so in coalition with the Conservatives, who are still not
:52:24. > :52:28.popular in many parts of the North West, they are struggling as a
:52:29. > :52:32.result. Thank you very much. Now, from a by`election battle to
:52:33. > :52:35.the annual winter war over your council tax bills. This year, the
:52:36. > :52:38.Government has again offered money to councils to freeze them. But some
:52:39. > :52:42.are rejecting the offer because it is only half as much as the maximum
:52:43. > :52:48.council tax rise of 2%. Stuart Pollitt reports.
:52:49. > :52:53.While millions are fixated on the twists and turns of the Winter
:52:54. > :53:01.Olympics, what about the traditional political winter sport?
:53:02. > :53:07.We are talking about the annual battle over council tax bills. The
:53:08. > :53:11.government wants a freeze on rates and it is incentivising local
:53:12. > :53:14.councils to follow suit. But for some local authorities, they say
:53:15. > :53:16.that is a slippery slope to more cuts.
:53:17. > :53:21.Cuts to council budgets mean volunteers now fund and run this
:53:22. > :53:24.centre. Rossendale Council have tried to do
:53:25. > :53:33.their best for us but what they cannot do is put money into it. If
:53:34. > :53:38.it was a penny on the rates, that would get something like this back
:53:39. > :53:43.on its feet. You could argue it is a penny for this and 5p for that.
:53:44. > :53:47.A penny for the thoughts of this theatre company. They are putting
:53:48. > :53:50.the final touches to what they worry will be their final show at Preston
:53:51. > :53:53.Guild Hall's Charter Theatre. The City Council has proposed ending the
:53:54. > :54:02.venue's ?1 million subsidy, putting its future in doubt.
:54:03. > :54:06.That could be the end of us because we bring in the numbers because of
:54:07. > :54:11.the experience they get. They will not get that anywhere else around
:54:12. > :54:14.Preston, there is no theatre that compares to the Charter Theatre It
:54:15. > :54:18.would be devastating. The council is making budget cuts,
:54:19. > :54:22.as well as proposing a two per cent rise in council tax.
:54:23. > :54:29.Any entertainment complex needs a big subsidy and we cannot afford
:54:30. > :54:34.that any more, we are making cuts unfortunately and we are having to
:54:35. > :54:39.put council tax up again. I put this down to the way we have been treated
:54:40. > :54:46.by central government. It is a message other councils are
:54:47. > :54:49.echoing. In Wirral, they are putting up bills, despite the Government's
:54:50. > :54:53.offer. But others, like Manchester, are taking the Government offer and
:54:54. > :54:58.freezing rates. You could describe it as a bribe. We
:54:59. > :55:04.recognise it is a difficult position for residents so we will take the
:55:05. > :55:08.money. It is an incentive to keep council tax down. We cannot do that
:55:09. > :55:13.for ever because we are in a difficult position because of
:55:14. > :55:18.government cuts. Over ?500 million to help hard`working families, and
:55:19. > :55:20.they should be looking at how they deliver services to protect front
:55:21. > :55:27.line services. Despite the name, council tax isn't
:55:28. > :55:31.just the council's fee. They form the bulk of the charge, more than
:55:32. > :55:34.three quarters, but there are also levies, or precepts from parish
:55:35. > :55:36.councils, the Fire Service and the police.
:55:37. > :55:39.Cheshire Police are the only force in the region freezing their council
:55:40. > :55:43.tax precept. This centre in Poynton is one reason they can afford it.
:55:44. > :55:46.Money is being saved by sharing a building with the fire and Ambulance
:55:47. > :55:49.Service. But the PCC is also looking for volunteers to take on some
:55:50. > :55:52.roles. Is there pressure is a Conservative
:55:53. > :55:58.to freeze the precept because that is what the government wants?
:55:59. > :56:03.I will not toe the party line for the sake of it. I have taken the
:56:04. > :56:07.decision to freeze the precept on the council tax because there is no
:56:08. > :56:11.need to increase it this year. That may change in future years.
:56:12. > :56:15.But this debate between central and local government isn't likely to
:56:16. > :56:21.change. At least, not until this lot get their shot at the Winter
:56:22. > :56:26.Olympics. You are a former Manchester City
:56:27. > :56:31.councillor, should bills be frozen? I think he pointed out that
:56:32. > :56:35.Manchester will take the money this year, it is up to individual
:56:36. > :56:42.councils. Jeff said that residents are suffering severe pressure and my
:56:43. > :56:47.argument is this, 285 or `` ?28 per head has been cut from Manchester
:56:48. > :56:52.residents, and if you look at David Cameron 's constituency in West
:56:53. > :56:58.Oxfordshire, they have had a cut of ?59, how can that be fair? Because
:56:59. > :57:02.they do not get so much money to begin with.
:57:03. > :57:06.It is about the needs of people in Manchester compared to needs of
:57:07. > :57:11.people in Oxfordshire, it is not fair they only suffered a ?59 cut
:57:12. > :57:14.and Jeff is dealing with massive budget cuts across Manchester.
:57:15. > :57:19.And Conservatives in Trafford are dealing with those and services are
:57:20. > :57:23.being decimated and that cannot be fair. My job in Parliament will be
:57:24. > :57:30.to fight for a fair deal for Wythenshawe and Sale East.
:57:31. > :57:36.Should bills be frozen? I would like to think so but it should be down to
:57:37. > :57:42.individual councils, they know best how their communities are affected
:57:43. > :57:46.by cuts. They live and die by these decisions in May if local people do
:57:47. > :57:51.not agree and think they are getting a fair deal, they can vote for
:57:52. > :57:56.another political party in opposition.
:57:57. > :58:01.Do you agree with Labour that the cuts to local government in the
:58:02. > :58:04.North West have been too deep? They have been disproportionate to the
:58:05. > :58:09.rest of the country and it has not been fair. The Tories have targeted
:58:10. > :58:14.areas where they do not have Conservative MPs or councils. I
:58:15. > :58:18.would like to see councils given a bigger opportunity to raise their
:58:19. > :58:24.own revenue and make the decisions how they spend their own money.
:58:25. > :58:29.You could argue if council services are being curtailed because of these
:58:30. > :58:34.cuts, putting council tax up to boost services might be better for
:58:35. > :58:38.local people. That is a very difficult argument,
:58:39. > :58:42.there is a cost of living crisis. People are seeing fuel bills and
:58:43. > :58:46.energy bills going through the roof and people in the North West have
:58:47. > :58:52.not seen wages increase to the same extent as other people in the
:58:53. > :58:58.country. So there are difficult choices. I go back to the fact it is
:58:59. > :59:03.unfair that Manchester people and people in Trafford have to suffer a
:59:04. > :59:08.five times bigger cut from a central government grant than somebody in
:59:09. > :59:12.David Cameron 's constituency in West `` in West Oxfordshire.
:59:13. > :59:15.Time for the rest of the week's news now. Here is 60 Seconds.
:59:16. > :59:20.Blackburn MP Jack Straw urged families with small children to
:59:21. > :59:22.ensure they are not left alone with animals, after 11`month`old
:59:23. > :59:33.Ava`Jayne Corless was killed by a dog at a house in the town. Babies
:59:34. > :59:36.and small children do not mix with pets.
:59:37. > :59:38.The schools watchdog said it was "seriously concerned" about the
:59:39. > :59:41.quality of secondary education across Cumbria. In Barrow, all three
:59:42. > :59:43.state secondaries are now deemed to be failing.
:59:44. > :59:45.Liverpool MP Steve Rotheram questioned the Home Secretary over
:59:46. > :59:51.concerns the families of Hillsborough victims may have been
:59:52. > :59:56.put under police surveillance. If they do find evidence drawing the
:59:57. > :59:59.investigation that suggests surveillance has taken place, they
:00:00. > :00:02.will pursue it. Merseyside's six councils got the
:00:03. > :00:05.go`ahead to form a combined authority from the first of April.
:00:06. > :00:06.They will join forces on economic development, transport and
:00:07. > :00:09.employment. And Blackpool Council gave the Green
:00:10. > :00:12.light to keep drinking. The licensing committee rejected a
:00:13. > :00:24.police request to ban booze sales after three in the morning.
:00:25. > :00:33.That is it for this week. You will be able to pick up this discussion
:00:34. > :00:36.at the European elections and the local elections in May, but thank
:00:37. > :00:44.you very much to my guests. direction? No, in real terms now the
:00:45. > :00:50.rent is falling in London. Andrew, back to you.
:00:51. > :00:54.Welcome back. Let's start by talking about the weather. What could be
:00:55. > :00:56.more British? It has been practically the only topic of
:00:57. > :01:00.conversation for the past few weeks. This morning, Ed Miliband has
:01:01. > :01:07.made the direct link, declaims, between this exceptionally wet and
:01:08. > :01:10.windy weather and climate change. That's an interesting development,
:01:11. > :01:21.taking place. Ed Miliband is the author of the 2008 Climate Change
:01:22. > :01:27.Act, so he has to stick to that line or his life 's work goes up in
:01:28. > :01:30.smoke. When he passed it, there was Westminster consensus. Now the
:01:31. > :01:36.Tories are beginning to appeal off. UKIP has definitely peeled off.
:01:37. > :01:41.Labour and Lib Dems are sticking to their guns, there is now a debate?
:01:42. > :01:43.It has moved from consensus to very fragile consensus. It's an
:01:44. > :01:47.interesting tactic for Ed Miliband to take. He could either approach
:01:48. > :01:51.the floods talking about government failures and handling, instead he
:01:52. > :01:55.has gone for the intellectual argument, try and turn this into a
:01:56. > :01:58.debate about ideology and climate change. I think he will find that
:01:59. > :02:03.quite difficult. Partly, I don't think the public I get listening to
:02:04. > :02:08.an argument like that. Partly because only one in three of the
:02:09. > :02:11.public totally agree with him. The polls for The Times think that about
:02:12. > :02:16.one in three think that man-made I'm a change is responsible for these
:02:17. > :02:21.floods, the rest do not. I'm not sure that the interventions will be
:02:22. > :02:24.particularly well picked up. It puts David Cameron in a difficult
:02:25. > :02:28.position. He was hugging those huskies, it was going to be the
:02:29. > :02:34.greenest Government ever, and now he has an Environment secretary that
:02:35. > :02:39.doesn't really believe in climate change. Well, we don't know where he
:02:40. > :02:42.stands. That is not where he was in 2010. It has always been sold to us
:02:43. > :02:47.that he is statesman-like and pragmatic, but that drifts into he
:02:48. > :02:52.doesn't really believe anything This is a worldwide phenomenon now.
:02:53. > :02:56.You've got the Canadian government, they are pretty sceptical these
:02:57. > :02:59.days. The new Australian government is pretty sceptical. The Obama
:03:00. > :03:05.administration has been attacked by the green movement across the United
:03:06. > :03:13.States, he is probably about to approve the keystone pipeline that
:03:14. > :03:19.will take over the Texas refineries. What was a huge consensus across the
:03:20. > :03:22.globe is a guinea to break down Probably started to break down about
:03:23. > :03:26.the time of the financial crisis, the age of austerity, when suddenly
:03:27. > :03:30.people had more to worry about than green issues. Even at home it is a
:03:31. > :03:33.slightly risky tactic for Ed Miliband. The idea there is a
:03:34. > :03:37.scientific consensus on this, there isn't. You look at Professor Collins
:03:38. > :03:42.this morning, climate systems expert, saying, actually, the jet
:03:43. > :03:46.stream is not operating further south because of climate change Or
:03:47. > :03:50.if it is, it is beyond our knowledge. He flies in the face of
:03:51. > :03:56.what Ed Miliband as saying. He's saying the wet weather is caused by
:03:57. > :04:00.global warming, the head of science at Exeter University says the IPCC
:04:01. > :04:04.originally looked at whether climate change could affect what happens to
:04:05. > :04:08.the jet stream and, because it had no evidence it had any effect, it
:04:09. > :04:14.decided not to include it at all in the IPCC report. The problem we have
:04:15. > :04:18.got is that any individual phenomenon is difficult to attribute
:04:19. > :04:22.to climate change. But the Labour Leader just have? And The Met Office
:04:23. > :04:25.have done the same thing. It's a fragile in, but overall we can say
:04:26. > :04:30.we are getting more extreme weather than ever. The most extreme weather,
:04:31. > :04:35.hurricanes and tropical storm is, they have been in decline. Equally,
:04:36. > :04:42.we have had ten of the hottest summers in the last ten years since
:04:43. > :04:46.1998. Overall, there is a case that can be made that we are getting
:04:47. > :04:50.more. Each individual thing is difficult to say. Until recently,
:04:51. > :04:55.almost everyone agreed with that case. Now the parties are reflecting
:04:56. > :04:58.differences. I wanted to move on, what did you make of two interesting
:04:59. > :05:06.things that happened with the interview with UKIP and the Tories,
:05:07. > :05:10.one Cory saying I am voting to come out, and the UKIP chap saying we are
:05:11. > :05:15.maxed out on Tory defectors, we can't get any more? I think that was
:05:16. > :05:20.a dangerous admission from Patrick O'Flynn from UKIP, essentially
:05:21. > :05:23.saying that their vote has peaked. Looking at the by-elections, I'm not
:05:24. > :05:27.sure that was a particularly wise reflection on that. They got 18 ,
:05:28. > :05:33.23% last year. The case he is making is that there are more votes to be
:05:34. > :05:37.gained by attracting former Labour voters than former Tories. I'm not
:05:38. > :05:41.sure that red UKIP, the bit of UKIP that tries to make benefit
:05:42. > :05:45.protection and some other kind of social issues at the heart really
:05:46. > :05:47.sits comfortably with their insurgent, anti-state message. I
:05:48. > :05:54.don't think it will do particularly well. This is why they are pushing
:05:55. > :05:57.the message, it is their response to the idea and suggestion of a Tory
:05:58. > :06:04.rallying cry that they vote for Nigel Farage, and it is really a
:06:05. > :06:08.vote for Ed Miliband. Patrick is a very good journalist, a very good
:06:09. > :06:11.commentator. He answered almost as a commentator rather than head of
:06:12. > :06:18.communications for a political party. The Government are still
:06:19. > :06:22.trying to rid itself of troublesome priests, an attack on welfare
:06:23. > :06:30.reforms from the Catholic Archbishop of Westminster. Let's have a look
:06:31. > :06:34.and see what he said. The basic safety net that was there to
:06:35. > :06:38.guarantee that people would not be left in hunger or in destitution has
:06:39. > :06:46.actually been torn apart. It no longer exists. And it is a real
:06:47. > :06:51.real, dramatic crisis. The second is that, in this context, the
:06:52. > :06:56.administration of social assistance, I am told, has become more and more
:06:57. > :07:00.punitive. If applicants do not get it right, they have to wait and they
:07:01. > :07:07.have to wait for ten days, two weeks, with nothing. Has the basic
:07:08. > :07:10.safety net disappeared? I don't see how it is possible to argue that. It
:07:11. > :07:12.is certainly the case that there have been reductions in various
:07:13. > :07:16.benefits, some benefits have been scrapped and there is a welfare
:07:17. > :07:21.reform programme. But this country is still spending ?94 billion a year
:07:22. > :07:30.on working age benefits. Excluding pensions? The idea that this equates
:07:31. > :07:34.to some sort of wiping out of the safety net is... He has gone on a
:07:35. > :07:41.full frontal assault on the Tory reforms, not the kind of attack that
:07:42. > :07:45.Labour would be prepared to make? No, they know that it doesn't play
:07:46. > :07:52.very well in the country. He's not up for election. Whether or not you
:07:53. > :07:54.agree about the safety net, I think the welfare reforms have been poorly
:07:55. > :07:59.managed and I don't think that is a full dispute. Universal credit, it
:08:00. > :08:03.is in some very long grass. It had some stupid ideas, like the idea
:08:04. > :08:06.that it would be paid monthly, instead of weekly, meaning that
:08:07. > :08:10.people are more likely to run out of money by the end of the month. It's
:08:11. > :08:15.interesting, in the past, when members of the cloth have attacked
:08:16. > :08:19.the government for welfare reforms, the Government have responded by
:08:20. > :08:25.trying to paint them as lefties ideological driven. I think that is
:08:26. > :08:27.hard in this case, an assault made deliberately in the Telegraph from
:08:28. > :08:32.somebody who feels they come from a centre-right position. I think there
:08:33. > :08:36.will be a bit of awkwardness about this intervention. It is not the
:08:37. > :08:40.kind of thing they wanted to see. Is it politically damaging for the
:08:41. > :08:43.Government? It is if it makes them look mean-spirited. But that is the
:08:44. > :08:47.problem with welfare reforms. You can say all sorts of things about
:08:48. > :08:53.Iain Duncan Smith's competence. But the whole thing springs from a moral
:08:54. > :08:57.mission, as he sees it, to liberate the poor and extend opportunity One
:08:58. > :09:01.of the worst moments for the Tories was blaming the low level of voting
:09:02. > :09:05.in Wythenshawe and sale in the fact that the constituency had, in the
:09:06. > :09:09.words of one senior Tory, the largest council estate in Europe
:09:10. > :09:14.inside its constituency boundary. The point being what? Because you
:09:15. > :09:18.live in a council estate you don't vote? That they don't see people
:09:19. > :09:22.living in council estate as one of them, not an impulse that Margaret
:09:23. > :09:25.Thatcher would have had. I think it's dangerous if they are painting
:09:26. > :09:30.is people as opponents rather than trying to win them over. When they
:09:31. > :09:37.do vote, they determine elections! The idea that there is no such thing
:09:38. > :09:43.as a working-class Tory is toxic. I want to show you a picture. There we
:09:44. > :09:49.go. It is behind me, on the 5th of February, it is all men. And then,
:09:50. > :09:54.on the next, look at that, the 2th, there are a few women. Not exactly
:09:55. > :10:00.many, but some. It is an improvement. But it is so
:10:01. > :10:04.transparent, isn't it? We phoned up one of the women that sat behind
:10:05. > :10:08.David Cameron to ask, why the sudden change? They said, I don't know why
:10:09. > :10:12.you are bothering to ask, it is completely natural, we didn't do
:10:13. > :10:16.anything to stage manage it. Did his nose gets longer? It is something
:10:17. > :10:21.that is very transparent and depressing about the way politicians
:10:22. > :10:28.choose to react to these moments. Every week they put two women behind
:10:29. > :10:33.David Cameron, so that a tight shot shows them. It is called the
:10:34. > :10:38.doughnut. They don't have many women to shuffle around, there are only
:10:39. > :10:42.four among 14 in the Shadow Cabinet. Also, the fact that women, younger
:10:43. > :10:48.women in particular, are much less likely to vote Tory than five or ten
:10:49. > :10:55.years ago. David Cameron, it drives and furious, he is obviously aware
:10:56. > :10:58.this is one of the biggest potential demographic problem is that they
:10:59. > :11:02.have. It also reminds us of how the public can actually see the wiring
:11:03. > :11:05.behind a lot of the stuff. Do they really think your blog so stupid
:11:06. > :11:11.that they will not notice that the following week the front bench is
:11:12. > :11:16.packed with women? I think it just increases contempt for the entire
:11:17. > :11:19.rocket. It is an issue where Labour seem to have pulled ahead of the
:11:20. > :11:25.other parties. We are being told that 50% of candidates in their 100
:11:26. > :11:30.target seats will be female. It looks like the composition of Labour
:11:31. > :11:36.continues to go towards a kind of rough 50-50 split, eventually.
:11:37. > :11:40.Although that is true, I think the faces we see on the telly, Ed
:11:41. > :11:44.Miliband, Ed Balls, Chris Leslie, they are almost always men. There is
:11:45. > :11:49.a Rachel Reeves, a prominent female face that goes up a lot. But really,
:11:50. > :11:55.the number of e-mails they put up is proportionally a lot smaller. Is the
:11:56. > :12:01.Miliband team still a men's club? Behind the scenes, it is very
:12:02. > :12:04.blokey. It's been described as a kind of seminar room at a
:12:05. > :12:11.university. I think that is true. The Observer did the cutout and keep
:12:12. > :12:16.of the people behind Mr Miliband. As opposed to the Shadow Cabinet, with
:12:17. > :12:20.lots of women in it, it was very male. The one reason Labour have all
:12:21. > :12:25.of these women to put up in constituencies is all women short
:12:26. > :12:33.lists is. If Tories want to change things, I know they can be prone to
:12:34. > :12:41.minute -- and in relation, but they work. In ten years time, I think it
:12:42. > :12:49.will give Labour an immense advantage. By then, I think they
:12:50. > :12:53.will have a woman leader. Who will that be? Potentially somebody not
:12:54. > :12:58.even yet in the Commons. You can see how quickly people can rise to the
:12:59. > :13:06.top, but the Labour Party is going to be increasingly donated by women.
:13:07. > :13:11.Do you think there will be a Labour Leader before Theresa May becomes
:13:12. > :13:15.leader of the Conservatives? I think it is ultimately about Osborne
:13:16. > :13:21.trying to stop Boris. I think I would be astonished if she managed
:13:22. > :13:26.it. The first female Labour Leader? I would pick Rachel Reeves the way
:13:27. > :13:33.it is currently going, she knows her stuff and does well on TV. That is
:13:34. > :13:39.all for this week. We have a week off now. I'll be back in the week
:13:40. > :13:42.after next. Remember, if it is Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics,
:13:43. > :13:44.unless it's a Parliamentary recess.