:00:36. > :00:43.Morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. The dust has barely
:00:44. > :00:46.settled on George Osborne's Budget and, amazingly, for once it hasn't
:00:47. > :00:49.all gone horribly wrong by the weekend. So, is this the election
:00:50. > :00:53.springboard the Tories needed, and where does it leave Labour? Turns
:00:54. > :00:57.out the big Budget surprise was a revolution in how we pay for old
:00:58. > :01:01.age. The Pensions Minister says he's relaxed if you want to spend it all
:01:02. > :01:07.on a Lamborghini. He'll join us later. And could the man with the
:01:08. > :01:10.maracas be on his way to Westminster? Bez from the Happy
:01:11. > :01:13.Mondays tells us about his unlikely plan to become an
:01:14. > :01:17.And in the North West: Securing our financial future or searching for
:01:18. > :01:18.fool's gold? Can our scientists really compete
:01:19. > :01:25.with the golden triangle down south? In London, the Mafia man gets to
:01:26. > :01:36.stay in Axbridge. Are there ways of making the European arrest warrant
:01:37. > :01:40.work better? -- Uxbridge. And who better to help guide you through all
:01:41. > :01:43.of that than three journalists, who dispense wisdom faster than Grant
:01:44. > :01:46.Shapps calls out the numbers in his local bingo hall over a pint of
:01:47. > :01:52.beer. Yes, they're hard-working and they're doing the things they enjoy.
:01:53. > :01:53.Cup of tea, number three. It's Nick Watt, Polly Toynbee and Janan
:01:54. > :02:02.Ganesh. So, George Osborne delivered his
:02:03. > :02:06.fifth Budget on Wednesday and had so many glowing front pages the day
:02:07. > :02:09.afterwards he must be running out of room to pin them up in on his
:02:10. > :02:13.bedroom wall. Although it's probably a pretty big wall. For those of you
:02:14. > :02:16.who didn't have time to watch 3 5 hours of Budget coverage on the BBC,
:02:17. > :02:44.here's Giles with the whole thing in three minutes.
:02:45. > :02:49.Budget days have a rhythm of their own, driven partly by tradition
:02:50. > :02:52.like that photocall at 11 Downing Street and part logistics, how to
:02:53. > :02:59.get this important statement out and explain to those whom it affects -
:03:00. > :03:08.us? Behind-the-scenes of a Budget Day is much the same. This ritual
:03:09. > :03:11.red boxery may be the beginning of the end of weeks of work behind the
:03:12. > :03:14.scenes in the Treasury and sets the clock ticking on the process of
:03:15. > :03:18.finding out the answer to one question. You got any rabbits in the
:03:19. > :03:20.box, Chancellor? Yes, there will be something in the Budget we don't
:03:21. > :03:23.know about. Time marches steadily towards the statement and already
:03:24. > :03:30.commentators are hovering over what those potential surprises are. As
:03:31. > :03:32.Big Ben chimes, all focus returns to the Commons, where there is Prime
:03:33. > :03:38.Minister's questions and the Chancellor gets up and does his
:03:39. > :03:41.thing. Once he's on his feet and remembering there is still no copy
:03:42. > :03:46.of the details, the major measures are rapidly highlighted as they come
:03:47. > :03:53.and then put up on screen. A cap on Government welfare spending set for
:03:54. > :03:58.2015/16 at 119 billion. Income tax personal allowance raised to
:03:59. > :04:01.?10,500. Bingo duty halved, which ticked boxes for some but was
:04:02. > :04:07.unlikely to make anyone a poster boy. And the beer tax cut of 1p or
:04:08. > :04:10.the froth on the top. And changes to pensions allowing people to take
:04:11. > :04:19.their money out in one lump sum rather than being forced to accept a
:04:20. > :04:23.fixed annual pay-out, or annuity. This is a Budget for the makers the
:04:24. > :04:26.doers and the savers and I commend it to the House. Not everyone can
:04:27. > :04:30.focus on the Budget by listening to what the Chancellor says. We need to
:04:31. > :04:34.get a copy of the script. We do not get that till he sits down. I'm
:04:35. > :04:41.going to go into the House of Commons to get that right now. There
:04:42. > :04:44.will be a response on that and all the other things from Mr Miliband.
:04:45. > :04:47.The Chancellor spoke for nearly an hour but he did not mention one
:04:48. > :04:52.essential fact, the working people of Britain are worse off under the
:04:53. > :04:55.Tories. It is a tricky job answering the Budget at the best of times
:04:56. > :04:57.though some, including Labour MPs, think it is better to mention the
:04:58. > :05:06.Budget when you do. Here we are. I am going to go. I am
:05:07. > :05:09.not the only journalist missing Ed Miliband's speech. Many others leave
:05:10. > :05:14.the Chamber as the Chancellor sits down to attend a special briefing
:05:15. > :05:20.from the Chancellor's advisory team. I am hotfoot to the studio. There is
:05:21. > :05:23.a little more detail to the Budget than the Budget Speech. That detail
:05:24. > :05:26.can be whether words unravel and other interpretations emerge. By now
:05:27. > :05:34.the gaggle of supporters and detractors are taking the debate
:05:35. > :05:38.onto the airwaves. Are you the BBC? Have the Daily Politics packed up?
:05:39. > :05:41.No, we're still standing and, days later, still trying to assess
:05:42. > :05:44.whether the measures announced still seem fresh and appetising or have
:05:45. > :05:55.already gone stale in the minds of voters?
:05:56. > :06:06.How significant are these two poles this morning putting Labour and Tory
:06:07. > :06:12.nip and tuck? Osborne gave his party a good bounce. It was an
:06:13. > :06:16.astonishingly theatrical coup. At first glance, it seems like a huge
:06:17. > :06:21.gift to all people. That is where all of the money has been channelled
:06:22. > :06:25.by this government. They have been ultra-protected, triple locked.
:06:26. > :06:31.Pensioners have done very well and others less well. It is not
:06:32. > :06:34.surprising. Normally a budget which is well received on the day and the
:06:35. > :06:41.day after has unravelled by the weekend. This time, it has not, so
:06:42. > :06:45.far. The dangerous thing for the Labour Party now, George Osborne is
:06:46. > :06:49.the assessment this thing called the baseline. He says, in government,
:06:50. > :06:55.you must control the baseline. The Labour party controlled in 2001 and
:06:56. > :06:58.2005 and he needs to control it next time. He is controlling it on fiscal
:06:59. > :07:03.policy because labour is matching them on everything. The danger for
:07:04. > :07:08.Labour on the big, headline grabbing issue, which was freeing up
:07:09. > :07:12.annuities on pensions, that again Labour was pretty much saying it was
:07:13. > :07:16.going to support it though it were saying it has to be fair and
:07:17. > :07:22.cost-effective. On a big, policy issue, they are following on behind
:07:23. > :07:26.George Osborne. George Osborne is controlling the crucial baseline.
:07:27. > :07:35.Are we in danger of reading too much into the political implications of
:07:36. > :07:39.the budget? The good thing about the pensions policy is, if it does
:07:40. > :07:45.unravel, it will not happen for ten years and, by that time, George
:07:46. > :07:49.Osborne will have left office. Towards the end of his speech, I
:07:50. > :07:54.thought, that is not enough. There is not an idea in your budget which
:07:55. > :07:58.is politically very vivid a year before an election. What I
:07:59. > :08:02.underestimated was, how many frustrated savers that are in the
:08:03. > :08:07.country. There are a lot of people who are frustrated by low interest
:08:08. > :08:13.rates and tax rates on pension pots. This was an explicit gesture for
:08:14. > :08:17.them. That is what has paid off in the polls in the past few days. You
:08:18. > :08:24.spend all of your money on your wardrobe, is that right? The bingo
:08:25. > :08:29.poster was a kind of get out of jail card for Labour. It gave them
:08:30. > :08:33.something to zoom in on. Everyone beat up on Grant Shapps, the Tory
:08:34. > :08:38.chairman. We read in the daily Telegraph that the fingerprints of
:08:39. > :08:44.the Chancellor were all over this poster. The Chancellor signed off it
:08:45. > :08:54.-- off on it and so did Lynton Crosby. They referred to working
:08:55. > :08:59.class people as, they are. How did it get into the Telegraph? We can
:09:00. > :09:05.only presume but grant Shapps made it clear that it was not him. We had
:09:06. > :09:08.a time when Labour politicians, we saw from the response of Ed Miliband
:09:09. > :09:13.onwards, they were not quite sure how to react to this budget. A lot
:09:14. > :09:18.of detail had to be absorbed. Suddenly, here is something we can
:09:19. > :09:28.talk about. You can see the thinking behind the poster was very sensible.
:09:29. > :09:30.We are not Tory toffs, we are interested in helping people who do
:09:31. > :09:37.not come from our backgrounds. The wording was awful and played into
:09:38. > :09:43.every cliche. It was all his fault. It shows how unsophisticated he
:09:44. > :09:53.was. There were people from Tory HQ who agreed the budget. A month down
:09:54. > :10:00.the line will the budget look as good? Probably. Once people look at
:10:01. > :10:03.it, pensions are fiendishly conjugated. Once they look and see
:10:04. > :10:07.what it will do with people having to pay for their own care because
:10:08. > :10:11.they can now take capital at their pension, that will come as a shock
:10:12. > :10:19.to a lot of people with small savings. It all be gone on their
:10:20. > :10:24.care. The polling will be neck and neck all the way. In the past,
:10:25. > :10:27.George Osborne has been accused of using his Budgets to tinker at the
:10:28. > :10:30.margins or pull cheap tricks on his political opponents. Perish the
:10:31. > :10:32.thought. But the big surprise in this year's statement was a
:10:33. > :10:42.genuinely radical shake-up of the pensions system that will affect
:10:43. > :10:46.most people who've yet to retire. At the moment, everyone is saving money
:10:47. > :10:52.into a defined contribution pension, that is the type most common in the
:10:53. > :10:57.private sector. They can take 2 % of the pot is a tax-free lump sum when
:10:58. > :11:01.they retire. The rest of the money, for most people, they are forced to
:11:02. > :11:05.buy an annuity, a form of insurance which provide a guaranteed monthly
:11:06. > :11:10.income until they die. Annuities have hardly been a bargain since
:11:11. > :11:17.interest rates were flat slashed following the financial crash. Even
:11:18. > :11:23.with a ?100,000 pension pot would only get an income of ?5,800 a year
:11:24. > :11:27.at current rates. From 2018, pensioners will not be forced to buy
:11:28. > :11:34.an annuity. They can do what they like with their money, even taking
:11:35. > :11:40.the entire pot as a lump some but paying tax on 75% of it.
:11:41. > :11:48.With an average pension pot closer to around ?30,000, pensioners would
:11:49. > :11:55.be more likely to buy a Skoda instead of a Lamborghini. Most newly
:11:56. > :11:59.retired people who take the cash are more likely to spend the money
:12:00. > :12:03.paying off their mortgage, helping a family member to buy a property or
:12:04. > :12:06.investing the money elsewhere. Well, earlier I spoke to the Pensions
:12:07. > :12:10.Minister. He's a Lib Dem called Steve Webb. I began by asking him if
:12:11. > :12:16.he still thought the reforms might lead to pensioners splurging all
:12:17. > :12:21.their savings on supercars. What this reform is about is treating
:12:22. > :12:25.people as adults. For far too long, we have said, we will make sure you
:12:26. > :12:28.save for your old age and then we will control each year how much is
:12:29. > :12:33.spent on what you spend it on. What we are saying is because we have
:12:34. > :12:37.formed -- reformed the state pension, we will be much more
:12:38. > :12:41.relaxed about what people do with their own money. The evidence is
:12:42. > :12:45.that people who have been frugal and saved hard for retirement do not
:12:46. > :12:49.generally blows a lot. They will spin it out. It is treating people
:12:50. > :12:56.as adults and giving them choices they should have had all along. It
:12:57. > :13:02.is a red herring, isn't it? The average pension pot is between 5000
:13:03. > :13:09.and 30,000. Lamborghinis aren't an option, correct? I gather only about
:13:10. > :13:13.5000 people a year retiring can buy a flashy Italian sports car. It
:13:14. > :13:17.might be about paying off a mortgage, paying off outstanding
:13:18. > :13:20.debts. Maybe spending more money earlier in retirement when they are
:13:21. > :13:25.fit and able and can enjoy it more. We will give people guidance. We
:13:26. > :13:28.will make sure when they retire there is someone to have a
:13:29. > :13:32.conversation with talking through the implications of spending the
:13:33. > :13:40.money early and options of investing it. This will be a real step
:13:41. > :13:43.forward. Even if you have a much bigger pension pot, say half ?1
:13:44. > :13:47.million, which is way bigger than the average, even then the marginal
:13:48. > :13:53.rates of tax will be a disincentive to take it all out at once. You will
:13:54. > :14:00.lose huge chunks of it at the 4 % band and then the 45% band. The tax
:14:01. > :14:04.system gives you the incentive to spread it out if the tax threshold
:14:05. > :14:09.is a bit over 10000 and the state pension is a bit over 7000, the
:14:10. > :14:19.first 3000 you draw out in a given year is tax-free. The next band is
:14:20. > :14:22.at 20%. Spreading your money will mean you pay less tax. That is why,
:14:23. > :14:26.in general, people will not blow the lot up front. They will spread it
:14:27. > :14:32.out over their retirement. You have kept this policy quiet. Not even a
:14:33. > :14:38.hint. How did you test it? How did you make sure it would be robust?
:14:39. > :14:42.You did not do a consultation. I have been talking about freeing up
:14:43. > :14:46.the annuity market for a decade The idea of giving people more choice.
:14:47. > :14:50.The government has relaxed rules over this Parliament. It was not a
:14:51. > :14:53.completely new idea. We know in places like Australia and America,
:14:54. > :15:02.people have these freedoms. We already have something to judge it
:15:03. > :15:04.by. We will spend the next year talking to people, working it
:15:05. > :15:07.through. There will be a three-month consultation. I want people to have
:15:08. > :15:12.choices about their own money. There is detail still to be worked out and
:15:13. > :15:16.we are in listening mode about how we implement it. When you announce
:15:17. > :15:21.something you cannot do widespread consultation, for the reasons I have
:15:22. > :15:24.given, you do run the risk of unforeseen consequences? Pension
:15:25. > :15:28.companies this morning are indicating, you, the government can
:15:29. > :15:35.write you are looking for ?25 billion of infrastructure investment
:15:36. > :15:42.from us. You hold our shell below the water line. That may not happen.
:15:43. > :15:58.We spoke internally about the implications for instruction --
:15:59. > :16:06.infrastructure. It seems to me there will still be long-term investments.
:16:07. > :16:11.Many people want to turn their whole pot into an income. I understand the
:16:12. > :16:14.insurance companies are lobbying, but I'm convinced there will still
:16:15. > :16:19.be plenty of money for investment and infrastructure. If the
:16:20. > :16:27.Chancellor's pro-savings measures work, that will generate more
:16:28. > :16:32.savings. With no requirement now to buy an annuity, surely it is the
:16:33. > :16:40.case that pension pots are another ordinary savings fund, so why should
:16:41. > :16:45.they continue to get favourable tax treatment? Bear in mind that a lot
:16:46. > :16:49.of the tax treatment of pensioners is tax deferred so most people pay
:16:50. > :16:56.tax at the standard rate. If they put money into a pension, they don't
:16:57. > :17:03.pay tax when they earn it, but they do at retirement. We do want, we
:17:04. > :17:09.will still have automatic enrolment into workplace pensions, we do want
:17:10. > :17:15.people to build up, because at age 20 and 30 nobody thinks about
:17:16. > :17:20.retirement. It is still vital that people do reach retirement to have
:17:21. > :17:26.these new choices with a decent sized pension pot. Pensions. Tax
:17:27. > :17:30.breaks because they were supposed to provide an income in retirement
:17:31. > :17:36.that is how it was structured, but that is no longer a requirement
:17:37. > :17:43.surely that undermines the case that if they get tax breaks, other forms
:17:44. > :17:54.of savings should get tax breaks. Other forms do get tax breaks, of
:17:55. > :18:00.course. The return with ISAs is tax free. The point with pensions is
:18:01. > :18:09.that you are simply deferring your earnings. There is a bit when high
:18:10. > :18:14.tax rate payers get a kick when they are working and then retire on
:18:15. > :18:19.standard rate, so there is the issue of the top getting too many tax
:18:20. > :18:25.breaks, but the basic principle that you pay tax when you get the income
:18:26. > :18:30.seems right to me and isn't affected by these changes. You have announced
:18:31. > :18:35.save friendly measures, are we right to look at them as a consolation
:18:36. > :18:39.prize because savers have suffered from the Government's policy of
:18:40. > :18:45.keeping interest rates abnormally low? It is certainly the case that
:18:46. > :18:51.very low interest rates have been a huge boon to people of working age
:18:52. > :18:54.with mortgages, and people who have retired said they thought they could
:18:55. > :19:00.have got a better deal on their savings. I think there is a
:19:01. > :19:05.recognition that whilst we have done the right thing with pensioners on
:19:06. > :19:16.the state pension, we have brought in the triple lock, and many will
:19:17. > :19:21.bent on -- benefit from these changes. Why don't savers who are
:19:22. > :19:27.not pensioners get the same help? They have been hit by low interest
:19:28. > :19:32.rates as well. Those of working age, many of them say they have
:19:33. > :19:40.benefited from low interest rates was predominantly people in
:19:41. > :19:46.retirement have not had the benefit. Obviously people of working age will
:19:47. > :19:56.have benefited from the tax allowance so it is a myth to say the
:19:57. > :19:59.Budget was all about pensioners And yet even when the Office for Budget
:20:00. > :20:03.Responsibility takes into account your new measures, it still shows
:20:04. > :20:09.that over the next five years households will save less and less,
:20:10. > :20:16.indeed the savings ratio falls by 50%. You haven't done enough. One of
:20:17. > :20:20.the things we know is that the economy is picking up strongly, and
:20:21. > :20:24.as we have more confidence about the future they will be more willing to
:20:25. > :20:28.consume now, so without these measures it may be that the saving
:20:29. > :20:36.rate would have fallen further. We want people to save and spend, it is
:20:37. > :20:39.about getting the right balance As the economy picks up, people will
:20:40. > :20:46.want to spend more of their money and it is about getting the balance
:20:47. > :20:49.right. You make the point that if people are little profligate with
:20:50. > :20:53.their private pensions, they will have the state pension to fall back
:20:54. > :20:58.on and it will be higher than it has been, but it is also the case that
:20:59. > :21:04.in these circumstances they will still be entitled to housing benefit
:21:05. > :21:10.and even to perhaps some council tax benefit as well. Do you know by how
:21:11. > :21:16.much this could put the welfare bill up? We think the impact will be
:21:17. > :21:19.relatively modest because the sort of people who save for a pension and
:21:20. > :21:26.make sacrifices while they are at work are not the sort of people who
:21:27. > :21:30.get to 65 and decide to blow the lot for the great privilege of receiving
:21:31. > :21:33.council tax benefit or housing benefit. There will be people on the
:21:34. > :21:44.margins and benefit. There will be people on the
:21:45. > :21:47.who retire with some capital want to put some money away for their
:21:48. > :21:52.funeral. People like to save even into retirement so the myth of the
:21:53. > :22:01.spendthrift pensioner I don't believe. I think this has been
:22:02. > :22:08.rightly welcomed. Ever fancied a Lamborghini yourself? If you turned
:22:09. > :22:20.the camera around you would see my 2-door Corsa!
:22:21. > :22:23.What's your favourite thing about an election? Could it be the candidates
:22:24. > :22:26.ringing on your door while you're having dinner? The leaflets piling
:22:27. > :22:29.up on your doormat? Or the endless adverts aimed at hardworking
:22:30. > :22:32.families? Well, if you thought that was bad enough, then you might want
:22:33. > :22:35.to consider going overseas for the 2015 election because the parties
:22:36. > :22:40.are going to be aiming their message at you like never before. Adam's
:22:41. > :22:45.been to Worcester to find out more. One of the most famous political
:22:46. > :22:49.figures in history lived here, she is called Worcester woman. She was
:22:50. > :22:54.in her 30s, working class with a couple of kids, aspirational yet
:22:55. > :22:59.worried about quality of life. But she wasn't a real person, she was a
:23:00. > :23:04.label for the kind of voter new Labour were trying to reach and she
:23:05. > :23:10.was later joined by Mondeo man and several others. Doesn't that all
:23:11. > :23:17.seem a bit 90s? The technique, called segmentation, was used by
:23:18. > :23:21.George Bush in 2004. Then refined by Barack Obama. Rather than focusing
:23:22. > :23:27.on crude measures like cars and hometowns, they delved into the
:23:28. > :23:31.minds of voters. It is not just women, not just people who live in
:23:32. > :23:37.cities, but if you start to put together these groups of people you
:23:38. > :23:46.can even in an anecdote or way imagine who they are, what types of
:23:47. > :23:51.language and imagery might relate to them. We have been given access to a
:23:52. > :23:57.new polling model being used here by this firm, which is pretty close to
:23:58. > :24:01.the one we are told is being used by the Tories. It carves the country
:24:02. > :24:07.into six personality types, and we are trying it out on Worcester woman
:24:08. > :24:13.and wast of man. We are using an online quiz to work out who is in
:24:14. > :24:22.which segment. Meet new monk, Susie. She feels well represented. I
:24:23. > :24:28.know the Budget and the increases to childcare, I think at the moment I
:24:29. > :24:33.am fairly represented. This puts her in the category of optimistic
:24:34. > :24:38.contentment, people who feel they are doing OK. Terry, on the other
:24:39. > :24:47.hand, isn't happy about Britain today. Health and safety and all
:24:48. > :24:57.that! I hardly recognise the country a living in any more? Yes. Are you
:24:58. > :25:02.ready for the result? He is Mr comfortable nostalgia, they tend to
:25:03. > :25:06.favour the Tories and UKIP. They dislike the cultural changes they
:25:07. > :25:12.see as altering Britain for the worst. That sums me up. Tony is
:25:13. > :25:23.worried as well but feels much less secure. I look forward to the future
:25:24. > :25:33.with optimism or anxiety? Anxiety. Optimist or pessimist? Pessimist.
:25:34. > :25:39.His category is... You feel a bit insecure, you think the Government
:25:40. > :25:44.could probably help you more? Yes. Labour picks up a lot of these
:25:45. > :25:53.voters. This man is being asked to do more and more at work, but he is
:25:54. > :25:58.getting less and less. I am getting more towards the despair side.
:25:59. > :26:03.Things are getting tougher, generally? It puts him into the
:26:04. > :26:12.segment called long-term despair, people who feel left out. Finally,
:26:13. > :26:21.this is ever thoughtful Carol. I am a bit of an idealist. Her idealism
:26:22. > :26:26.makes her a cosmopolitan critic I am a liberal person. Apparently a
:26:27. > :26:32.lot of the media fit into this category as well. There is one group
:26:33. > :26:36.of voters we have not come across, people who show calm persistence.
:26:37. > :26:40.They hope things will get better but don't expect them to. They are
:26:41. > :26:46.coping, rather than comfortable Presumably they are all out of work.
:26:47. > :26:51.Which group are you win? You can take the poll on the BBC website,
:26:52. > :26:56.and in the coming weeks we will be doing our own polling using the six
:26:57. > :27:03.segments to see of the politicians really have worked out how we think.
:27:04. > :27:06.And as Adam said, if you want to try the survey for yourself, you can go
:27:07. > :27:08.to the BBC website and click on the link.
:27:09. > :27:19.And we're joined now by the pollster, Rick Nye. Welcome to
:27:20. > :27:24.Sunday Politics. We have had Worcester woman, Worcester man, is
:27:25. > :27:41.this any different? It is a recognition that or politician -
:27:42. > :27:49.all politics these days is like this. It enables them to cut them
:27:50. > :27:52.more finally. You think all politics is coalition politics, you think
:27:53. > :27:59.they have to put together these groups of people, not that the Lib
:28:00. > :28:05.Dems will always be in power? No, and if you listen to the coverage
:28:06. > :28:11.these days you might think it is about grumpy old men on the one hand
:28:12. > :28:14.with Guardian readers on the other. It is far more complicated than
:28:15. > :28:21.that, there is a lot of churning going on underneath which is driven
:28:22. > :28:25.by people's value systems. A lot of this has been pioneered in the
:28:26. > :28:29.United States, very sophisticated on their election techniques, and in
:28:30. > :28:35.Britain we are always the first to grab whatever the New Year will is
:28:36. > :28:40.from America. How do you think this will translate to this country? I
:28:41. > :28:45.think it means that if you are target photo you will still get the
:28:46. > :28:48.same of leaflets and people calling, but you will probably have different
:28:49. > :28:55.kinds of conversations because people on the other side, the party
:28:56. > :29:02.campaigners, will think they know more about you. Will I know who you
:29:03. > :29:06.are? If I am a party campaigner will I know, looking down the
:29:07. > :29:10.street, who fits into which category? You will be able to
:29:11. > :29:15.approximate that with all of the other data that you have gathered
:29:16. > :29:19.through polling, or doing local campaigning, that is the idea to
:29:20. > :29:26.make sense of this vast quantity of data people have about voters. We
:29:27. > :29:32.asked our panel to fill in your survey. Nick is optimistic
:29:33. > :29:37.contentment, 99%. He was 1% cosmopolitan critic, which is how he
:29:38. > :29:42.keeps his job at the Guardian. Polly's job could not be more
:29:43. > :29:49.secure, 100% cosmopolitan critics, and Janan Ganesh, optimistic
:29:50. > :29:54.contentment, which is what you would expect from a financial Times
:29:55. > :30:12.columnist. What do you make of this technique? Why are you only 99? It
:30:13. > :30:18.sounds really clever. 95% of the population five years ago voted
:30:19. > :30:22.Labour or the Conservatives. We have got away from that. It is coalition
:30:23. > :30:31.politics. You need sophisticated methods. Presumably you must not
:30:32. > :30:34.lose touch with basic points. You said it was used in the US
:30:35. > :30:40.presidential elections. Wasn't there them moment emit Romney 's sweet
:30:41. > :30:46.when the initial response was, we did not know the sort of people
:30:47. > :30:52.voted. His next response was, we did not know these people existed.
:30:53. > :30:57.Unless you know about certain key demographics, you are wasting your
:30:58. > :31:04.time. Is it important in modern campaigning? I think it is useful
:31:05. > :31:14.because it is about attitude. We have got Mosaic. We have got Acorn.
:31:15. > :31:18.It does not tell us very much. What people think and feel may be
:31:19. > :31:23.different to their income. You can be quite a high earner and anxious.
:31:24. > :31:26.You can be quite a low earner and feeling aspirational and optimistic
:31:27. > :31:34.about the future. I think this does get something else. In days gone by,
:31:35. > :31:39.particularly in America, overwhelmingly, if you are in the
:31:40. > :31:42.better of segment, you would be Republican and the blue-collar
:31:43. > :31:47.workers and some academics and Liberals voted Democrat. In the last
:31:48. > :31:51.election, the richest 200 counties in America voted Democrat. That is
:31:52. > :31:57.an attitude thing. Income does not tell you how people will vote. There
:31:58. > :32:02.is a huge, working-class base of support for the Republicans. It is
:32:03. > :32:07.unavoidable. Add a time when people no longer identify with ideologies
:32:08. > :32:20.or class blocks, you have to go the temperament and lifestyle and
:32:21. > :32:24.manageable. In America there were 128 segments according to lifestyle
:32:25. > :32:28.and Outlook. Once you get to that stage, it becomes close to useless.
:32:29. > :32:36.We were talking about the budget earlier. What other polls saying
:32:37. > :32:43.about the budget? The lead of labour has been narrowed over the
:32:44. > :32:51.Conservatives. -- Labour. Osborne and Cameron as an academic team have
:32:52. > :32:56.always had a lead over Miller band and Balls. This week it is about
:32:57. > :33:04.economic management. -- over Mr Miller band.
:33:05. > :33:14.Thank you for being with us today. It's just gone 11:30am. You're
:33:15. > :33:17.watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who
:33:18. > :33:19.leave us now for Sunday Politics Scotland. Coming up here in 20
:33:20. > :33:31.minutes: We'll Hello, I'm Arif Ansari. Comhng up in
:33:32. > :33:36.the North West: Securing our financial future or searching for
:33:37. > :33:44.fool's gold? Can our scienthsts really compete with the golden
:33:45. > :33:49.triangle down South? We are saying very clearly that we
:33:50. > :33:51.are ready to challenge Cambridge and Oxford.
:33:52. > :33:55.We had a great programme last week, but sadly you probably didn't see
:33:56. > :33:59.it. We had a few problems, so sorry if you missed us. Hopefully you can
:34:00. > :34:02.see this week's guests ` thd Labour MP for Garston and Halewood and
:34:03. > :34:12.Shadow Environment Secretarx, Maria Eagle. And Stephen O'Brien, the
:34:13. > :34:17.Conservative MP for Eddisbury. We will be talking about thd Budget
:34:18. > :34:23.today. What you think was the most significant thing announced? I think
:34:24. > :34:28.after the very difficult ye`rs of austerity, to try and fix the
:34:29. > :34:33.problem is that the country faced, that we had a Budget that w`s a
:34:34. > :34:38.reward for the richest people having gone through these difficult times,
:34:39. > :34:47.in terms of the pensioners `nd savers. `` British people. People
:34:48. > :34:52.being trusted with the savings that they have put away and having a
:34:53. > :34:57.chance to get the rewards from the income that they wanted to generate.
:34:58. > :35:04.What did you think was the lost important thing? It was a mhssed
:35:05. > :35:07.opportunity. It did not bal`nce the economy between the growth hn the
:35:08. > :35:15.south`east and what is happdning in the Northwest. Unemployment in the
:35:16. > :35:18.north`west is going up, whilst it is falling nationally. The Chancellor
:35:19. > :35:24.did not take any opportunitx about that. He did nothing to tackle the
:35:25. > :35:28.cost of living prices that people around the country of feeling after
:35:29. > :35:35.his posterity measures. We will have that debate.
:35:36. > :35:38.So, booze and bingo were among the winners in the Chancellor's fifth
:35:39. > :35:41.Budget, but what specifically for the North West? George Osborne gave
:35:42. > :35:44.?150,000 to the Tim Parry Johnathan Ball Peace Centre in Warrington
:35:45. > :35:47.There was confirmation of a loan guarantee for the Mersey Gateway
:35:48. > :35:49.bridge. And there was investment for regional airports which could help
:35:50. > :35:52.Liverpool and Blackpool airports attract new passengers `
:35:53. > :35:56.Manchester's too big to qualify But, in a week when unemploxment was
:35:57. > :35:59.down nationally but up here, the Chancellor gave some of his biggest
:36:00. > :36:03.backing to those he called the "makers." He said half the
:36:04. > :36:08.manufacturers that would benefit from ?7 billion towards energy costs
:36:09. > :36:18.were in the the North. And `s Claire Hamilton reports, they were told to
:36:19. > :36:21.get investing. Hammering home the Conservative s
:36:22. > :36:29.support for business in the North West. The party chairman is having a
:36:30. > :36:34.tour of marginal seats. These type of businesses, rather than having
:36:35. > :36:38.the carbon price base going up, it sounds very technical, the bottom
:36:39. > :36:42.line is that they will not have to pay so much for their electricity
:36:43. > :36:46.and there will be able to kdep on making things here. There are 2 0
:36:47. > :36:49.people in this factory who have jobs.
:36:50. > :36:59.Here at this steel works in Bolton, they have built world`famous
:37:00. > :37:02.stadiums. They built buildings for the Olympics. The energy cost to
:37:03. > :37:09.keep this company running h`ve been huge and they have welcomed the
:37:10. > :37:15.energy cost cuts. We are always welcoming ways that we can save
:37:16. > :37:19.money for energy, so that it can go off the price of the product that we
:37:20. > :37:24.sell. Also in the Budget, more
:37:25. > :37:31.apprenticeships. But this MP has reservations. I have lobbied by my
:37:32. > :37:34.constituents about the failtres so I will look at the facts in detail
:37:35. > :37:41.of what the government has `nnounced today, so far today they have failed
:37:42. > :37:45.this industry. Watching the Budget and fold,
:37:46. > :37:50.leaders of industry in Manchester. But what was missing? We export 30%
:37:51. > :37:56.of our production, so areas that we might have needed help were
:37:57. > :38:00.corporation tax incentive so that for every pound that we export,
:38:01. > :38:08.perhaps a little bit back to give this the increment `` encouragement
:38:09. > :38:11.to invest. Manufacturers in the North West
:38:12. > :38:17.believe that this year's Budget is something that they can build on.
:38:18. > :38:19.And we're also joined now bx Professor Geraint Johns, an expert
:38:20. > :38:24.in economics at Lancaster University.
:38:25. > :38:30.In terms of supporting business what you think of the Budget? There
:38:31. > :38:33.are two things that help thd north`west. There is the increase in
:38:34. > :38:39.the annual investment allow`nce which has gone up to ?500,000 year.
:38:40. > :38:43.I am sure that other businesses will welcome that, it will affect the
:38:44. > :38:48.vast majority of businesses. It allows them to write off thd cost of
:38:49. > :38:53.investment against any taxes that they are paying and reduces that tax
:38:54. > :39:01.virgin. The difficulty `` t`x burden. The difficulty is that some
:39:02. > :39:04.of it will be a dead weight. There will be investment going on from
:39:05. > :39:12.firms that would have been going on anyway. It is a nudge in thd right
:39:13. > :39:18.direction. There is also thd relief that has been given on energy bills.
:39:19. > :39:23.This includes the reduction in the rate of growth of the carbon tax
:39:24. > :39:30.for. So this is something that is due to go to ?18 per tonne of
:39:31. > :39:35.carbon, and carbon taxes ard something that hit businessds. There
:39:36. > :39:39.will be particular relief for companies that are energy intensive.
:39:40. > :39:45.This is something that will benefit some firms especially in thd North
:39:46. > :39:49.West. We must look at the ilpact that it has on green targets for the
:39:50. > :39:56.country in 2020. What you think, Maria Eagle? I think
:39:57. > :40:01.it is true that it will help businesses, but it will do nothing
:40:02. > :40:06.for smaller distances, who like households when it comes to paying
:40:07. > :40:11.gas and electricity bills. We know that growth and employment will come
:40:12. > :40:14.from small firms, sweating the Chancellor has missed an opportunity
:40:15. > :40:25.to do something for those slall firms. `` so I think the Ch`ncellor.
:40:26. > :40:29.The investment is helping slall and medium`sized enterprises, those
:40:30. > :40:32.enterprises who are investing relatively small amounts, btt they
:40:33. > :40:40.are the ones that create most of the jobs. But Maria Eagle says that it
:40:41. > :40:47.will only help the big businesses? No, I think that it will also help
:40:48. > :40:51.the smaller businesses. Most of the smaller businesses are presdnted in
:40:52. > :40:56.the North West. That is where the creation of jobs comes from. That
:40:57. > :41:02.will help the levels of confidence. Whilst I accept the argument of
:41:03. > :41:09.Professor Geraint Johns, it will be the investment that will help the
:41:10. > :41:14.confidence. Small businesses are very ilportant
:41:15. > :41:19.for growth and securing the recovery and what it does appear to have been
:41:20. > :41:25.done in this Budget to help larger businesses. However, the bank of
:41:26. > :41:31.Britain is a feature in the Budget, and there are proposals abott using
:41:32. > :41:36.this to secure loans for sm`ll businesses. It is something that the
:41:37. > :41:41.Bank of England has said, that small businesses are still going back to
:41:42. > :41:45.the banking system than thex are borrowing from it, and we would not
:41:46. > :41:51.expect that at this stage in the cycle. In terms of the energy costs,
:41:52. > :41:59.are you concerned, it as an Energy Secretary, that we might miss our
:42:00. > :42:05.energy and carbon targets? Its leaves uncertainty for the green
:42:06. > :42:12.economy. The new work, green jobs in the workforce. It has stoppdd the
:42:13. > :42:17.increase in the carbon pricd, which would have promoted investmdnt in
:42:18. > :42:20.those industries in the futtre. I am concerned about that. I also think
:42:21. > :42:27.that smaller businesses would benefit more from deep `` frieze of
:42:28. > :42:35.energy prices that the Labotr Party are promising. The North West needs
:42:36. > :42:40.that. Our unemployment rate is going up at a time when it is falling
:42:41. > :42:48.throughout the country. Yes, what you think of the hncrease
:42:49. > :42:51.of unemployment to 8.1%. Being the largest population by
:42:52. > :42:57.region in the country, it h`s to be said that the unemployment rate is
:42:58. > :43:03.very much coming down, in mx constituency, and in many p`rts
:43:04. > :43:09.across. What was really intdresting was that in the high energy
:43:10. > :43:15.intensive industries which `re often the biggest industries, I used to
:43:16. > :43:20.supervise such industries, ht really makes a difference in securhng the
:43:21. > :43:26.jobs and securing the price that you can explore that. So these jobs will
:43:27. > :43:31.be created by these measures and we hope that that can be continued We
:43:32. > :43:40.now have industries being rdplaced by its smaller sized industries
:43:41. > :43:44.The problem with job creation in the north`west is the jobs that have
:43:45. > :43:48.been created nationally, many of them are in the South East `nd many
:43:49. > :43:50.of them are low paid and no