:00:38. > :00:44.Good morning. Welcome to The Sunday Politics. Just four days to go until
:00:45. > :00:48.election day, and be warned, coming to a street near you, a party leader
:00:49. > :00:52.on a charm offensive. They all want your vote in the European elections
:00:53. > :00:57.on Thursday, and in the local elections across England, too. Polls
:00:58. > :01:02.are all over the place this morning. Your vote could make a
:01:03. > :01:06.difference. This man is 11 points ahead in one poll, he has promised
:01:07. > :01:11.an earthquake on Thursday, but what then? Our Adam has braved the
:01:12. > :01:17.campaign trail, he has been asking all the big
:01:18. > :01:21.In the North West: Going for a song ` how one council plans to cope with
:01:22. > :01:24.cuts to social care. We'll debate this week, a last look at the euro
:01:25. > :01:35.elections, and the 50th anniversary of the first elections to London's
:01:36. > :01:40.32 boroughs. I am in the studio, with those who think they have got
:01:41. > :01:47.all the big answers. Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh. So, it
:01:48. > :01:51.is the European elections for everybody on Thursday, local
:01:52. > :01:55.elections for England and a bit of Northern Ireland as well. They are
:01:56. > :02:00.the last elections before the big one, the 2015 general election. Some
:02:01. > :02:04.say that these European and local elections will not be much of a
:02:05. > :02:10.pointer to how the big one goes. But that will not stop political
:02:11. > :02:15.commentators and party gurus from examining them closely. So, what is
:02:16. > :02:17.at stake? Thursday May the 22nd is local elections and European
:02:18. > :02:41.Parliament elections. These local results should be known
:02:42. > :02:46.by Friday. In the European elections, all 751 members of the
:02:47. > :02:52.European Parliament will be elected across Europe. 73 MEPs will be let
:02:53. > :02:57.it by people living in the UK. But the results will not be announced
:02:58. > :03:02.until Sunday night, after voting has closed throughout the 28 member
:03:03. > :03:05.states of the EU. Nick Watt, we are in a position where the polls this
:03:06. > :03:08.morning cannot tell us what the outcome is going to be on Thursday,
:03:09. > :03:13.and the general election is still wide open - we really are in
:03:14. > :03:17.uncharted territory? Also it is difficult to know where we are,
:03:18. > :03:22.because there is that ComRes poll which shows an 11 point lead amongst
:03:23. > :03:25.those certain to vote for UKIP, and another poll in the Sunday Times
:03:26. > :03:33.showing that it is a much more slender lead for UKIP. But we know
:03:34. > :03:38.that will they win? We do not know, but clearly they will unsettle the
:03:39. > :03:41.major parties. Fall or five months ago, we assumed that the UKIP
:03:42. > :03:47.success would create panic in the Conservative Party, but that has
:03:48. > :03:50.been factored into David Cameron's share price. The Conservative Party
:03:51. > :03:55.is remarkably relaxed at the moment, and I wonder whether this time next
:03:56. > :03:59.week, when we have the results, whether the two political leaders
:04:00. > :04:03.who will be under pressure will be Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg. Nick
:04:04. > :04:09.Clegg, because they could go down from 12 MEPs to maybe just three or
:04:10. > :04:12.four. And Ed Miliband, because, one year before a general election, he
:04:13. > :04:18.should be showing that he is a significant, potent electoral
:04:19. > :04:22.force. So, they should all be worried about UKIP, but whereas a
:04:23. > :04:26.couple of months ago, we would all have said David Cameron was the one
:04:27. > :04:32.who should be worried, now, we are saying it is Mr Miliband and Mr
:04:33. > :04:35.Clegg? And of the two, I think it is Ed Miliband who should be worried.
:04:36. > :04:43.The Lib Dems are an incredibly resilient party. He described his
:04:44. > :04:53.own party as cockroaches, and incredible resilience! I think the
:04:54. > :04:58.Lib Dems are ready to take this one, but I think Labour are really wobbly
:04:59. > :05:02.at the moment. What UKIP has done, to England, it means that England
:05:03. > :05:07.has caught up with Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales, England
:05:08. > :05:13.now has a four party system, which makes it all the more uncertain what
:05:14. > :05:17.the outcome will be? Yes, but whether UKIP finish first or second,
:05:18. > :05:22.it will be the biggest insurgent event since the European elections
:05:23. > :05:28.began in 1979. People talk about the Greens in 1989, but I think they
:05:29. > :05:31.finished third. Were UKIP to win a national election or even finish
:05:32. > :05:34.runner-up, it would be truly historic. It is reflecting on
:05:35. > :05:41.something which is happening across Europe, pianist in Italy, Holland,
:05:42. > :05:47.France and in this country. -- populist parties. And it makes first
:05:48. > :05:51.past the post look absolutely ridiculous. You could be in a
:05:52. > :05:55.situation after the next general election where Labour do not get the
:05:56. > :05:59.largest percentage of the vote but they get the largest number of
:06:00. > :06:03.seats. First past the post works fairly if there are only two
:06:04. > :06:09.parties, but when there are four... We will talk more about that. Let's
:06:10. > :06:14.speak now to Suzanne Evans of UKIP. She is at Westminster. Now, UKIP
:06:15. > :06:18.claims that there is going to be an earthquake in British politics on
:06:19. > :06:24.Thursday. Suppose there is, what does UKIP then need to do to become
:06:25. > :06:28.a more grown-up, proper party? I think UKIP has very much become a
:06:29. > :06:34.grown-up, proper party. We have been around for 20 years. What we are
:06:35. > :06:38.going to be doing after the European elections, if we do cause this
:06:39. > :06:43.earthquake, and the polls are looking like we are going to, is we
:06:44. > :06:46.will be firmly looking towards 2015, getting our general election
:06:47. > :06:50.manifesto out, to keep those votes on board from the euro elections and
:06:51. > :06:53.putting forward common-sense policies which really will bring
:06:54. > :06:57.Britain back to the people. We want to be able to hold the balance of
:06:58. > :07:08.power come the general election. If we can do that then there will be a
:07:09. > :07:11.referendum. That will be our aim. You say you are a more grown-up
:07:12. > :07:16.party, but when you look at the stream of gaffes and controversies
:07:17. > :07:21.created by your candidates and members, I will not go into them
:07:22. > :07:25.this morning, at the very least, I would suggest you are needing a more
:07:26. > :07:28.robust system of selection? You could say the same for the other
:07:29. > :07:34.three parties, who have been around for a lot longer. They have got
:07:35. > :07:41.nothing like the embarrassments you had. I am afraid they had. Just this
:07:42. > :07:44.week, since Monday, we have had 17 Liberal Democrat, labour or
:07:45. > :07:47.Conservative councillors either arrested, charged or convicted on
:07:48. > :07:52.all manner of offences. In addition we have had 13 who have been
:07:53. > :07:56.involved in some kind of racist, sexist or homophobic incident. I am
:07:57. > :08:00.not saying I am proud of any of that. The whole of politics probably
:08:01. > :08:03.needs to be cleaned up, but I certainly do not think we are any
:08:04. > :08:09.worse than the other parties, who have much greater resources than we
:08:10. > :08:13.do. Those other parties are even putting people in power who they
:08:14. > :08:16.know have got criminal convictions or who have previously belonged to
:08:17. > :08:23.far right, fascist parties like the BNP. Can you continue to be a
:08:24. > :08:25.one-man band? The only time any other UKIP petition makes the
:08:26. > :08:33.headlines is when they say something loony or objectionable? We have a
:08:34. > :08:37.huge amount of talent in this party. We have fantastic spokespeople
:08:38. > :08:39.across the patch, the huge amount of expertise in the party. Inevitably
:08:40. > :08:46.the media focuses on Nigel Farage, who is a fantastic, charismatic
:08:47. > :08:51.leader. But believe me, there is a huge amount of talent. When we get
:08:52. > :08:57.our MEPs into power after the European elections, we will see many
:08:58. > :09:03.more of them I think on television and radio and in the newspapers. We
:09:04. > :09:10.are not a one-man band. Who runs your party? The party is run by
:09:11. > :09:13.Nigel Farage, our leader. But he spends all his time running between
:09:14. > :09:19.television studios and in and out of the pub! You would be amazed how
:09:20. > :09:24.much he does, and of course we have a National Executive Committee, like
:09:25. > :09:28.the other parties. So who runs it? The National Executive Committee, in
:09:29. > :09:32.conjunction with Nigel Farage, the MEPs, the spokespeople, it is a
:09:33. > :09:38.joint effort. Your Local Government Minister Stosur is, if you vote
:09:39. > :09:44.UKIP, you go on to pledge that your councillors will not toe the party
:09:45. > :09:52.line, how does that work? -- your local government manifesto says...
:09:53. > :09:56.On the main policies, they will toe the party line, because that is
:09:57. > :10:01.obviously what people will be voting for. It is no good putting forward a
:10:02. > :10:08.manifesto like the Lib Dems did on 2010 and going back on it. We have
:10:09. > :10:12.put forward a lot of positive -- a lot of policies at local government
:10:13. > :10:16.level, and those we will stick to. But when it comes to individual,
:10:17. > :10:20.local issues, say, a particular development or the closure of a
:10:21. > :10:25.school, whatever, UKIP then will vote what they think is in the best
:10:26. > :10:29.interests of the people in the borough, and not according to any
:10:30. > :10:35.party whip system. This plays out really well on the doorstep, I find.
:10:36. > :10:38.People do not want their politicians to be in the pockets of their
:10:39. > :10:43.party, putting party first, ahead of the people. You want people to vote
:10:44. > :10:47.to leave the European Union in a referendum - have you published a
:10:48. > :10:53.road map as to what would then happen? Yes, there will be a road
:10:54. > :10:58.map. The Lisbon Treaty for the first time gave us that exit opportunity.
:10:59. > :11:01.Have you published a road map? I am not the legal expert on this but
:11:02. > :11:06.there are ways in which you can come out of Europe fairly quickly. There
:11:07. > :11:11.is a longer you all as well. But have you published any of that
:11:12. > :11:16.detail? Not that I have read. But certainly there are ways to do it.
:11:17. > :11:20.We are the sixth strongest world economy, I think we are in a strong
:11:21. > :11:24.position having left the EU to be able to negotiate a very good trade
:11:25. > :11:32.deal with the European Union. It is what people voted for in 1975. What
:11:33. > :11:37.would be our exact status? It would be I think what people voted for
:11:38. > :11:42.back in 1975. An independent, sovereign country in a trade
:11:43. > :11:45.agreement, a very positive and valuable trade agreement with the
:11:46. > :11:49.European Union. I voted in that referendum, I remember it well, 1975
:11:50. > :11:58.involved the free movement of people 's... That is something which I do
:11:59. > :12:02.not think UKIP or the country wants. 70% of people now are deeply
:12:03. > :12:10.concerned about immigration. So it would not be 1975, then? Andrew, it
:12:11. > :12:14.sounds like you are complaining that we might have something which is
:12:15. > :12:21.better than 1975. I am just trying to find out what it is! That sounds
:12:22. > :12:24.like positive to me. We will negotiate a trade deal and all
:12:25. > :12:28.manner of issues, whatever is best for the British people. We want our
:12:29. > :12:32.sovereignty back, we want our country back. Would you be upset if
:12:33. > :12:37.a bunch of Rumanian men moved in next door to you? Where I live, I am
:12:38. > :12:42.surrounded by one and two-bedroom flats. If ten Rumanian men moved in
:12:43. > :12:47.next door to me, I would want to ask questions. That is very different
:12:48. > :12:57.from say a Robinho family moving in next door. I would think, are they
:12:58. > :13:01.being ripped off, are they up to no good or are they perhaps being
:13:02. > :13:04.trafficked by a gang master? So I think it would be of concern, and I
:13:05. > :13:08.do not think there is anything wrong with that, it is a humanitarian
:13:09. > :13:11.approach. That would be different from a family moving in who were
:13:12. > :13:16.learning to speak English, who wanted to contribute to the British
:13:17. > :13:18.economy. Maybe if your boss is watching, he will now have found out
:13:19. > :13:34.how to answer that question. Now, what is more glamorous, 24
:13:35. > :13:37.hours in the life of a counter-terrorism agent, or 12 hours
:13:38. > :13:46.in the life of Adam Fleming, on the campaign trail? I will let you make
:13:47. > :13:50.up your own mind. So, it is eight o'clock in the morning here in
:13:51. > :13:54.Westminster. Today's challenge is, how much campaigning for the local
:13:55. > :13:58.and European elections can we fit into 12 hours? See you back here at
:13:59. > :14:03.eight o'clock tonight. Wish me luck. With my cameraman and
:14:04. > :14:11.producer, we went to Thurrock in Essex first. I got a very, very warm
:14:12. > :14:22.welcome from Abe buoyant UKIP. They have never had this much attention.
:14:23. > :14:26.One candidate's misdemeanour ends up on the front page. But you have got
:14:27. > :14:30.Lib Dem candidates being convicted of racially aggravated assault, and
:14:31. > :14:34.that was not on the front pages of the newspapers. Houdini is fine but
:14:35. > :14:40.it must be applied evenly. Have you had to sack Thurrock UKIP members
:14:41. > :14:49.for dodgy tweets or anything? Oh, God, no. Next we head to meet a top
:14:50. > :14:52.Tory in a different area. We are heading to Eastbourne. But stuck in
:14:53. > :14:57.traffic. We are going to miss William Hague. We got there, just in
:14:58. > :15:02.time, to ask the really big questions. David Cameron went to
:15:03. > :15:07.Nando De Colo last week, where are you going to go for lunch? I do not
:15:08. > :15:14.even get time for lunch. I think something in the back of the car. We
:15:15. > :15:19.will go down the street and see what people have got to say. Even the
:15:20. > :15:21.Foreign Secretary has depressed the flesh at election time? Even the
:15:22. > :15:37.Foreign Secretary meets real people. The message William Hague impresses
:15:38. > :15:41.upon everyone he meets is that the Tories are the only party offering a
:15:42. > :15:49.referendum on our membership of the EU. He's off for lunch in the limo.
:15:50. > :15:58.I've got five minutes by the beach. This is the best thing about
:15:59. > :16:01.elections, lunch. Do you want one? And chips are weirdly relevant at
:16:02. > :16:04.our next stop - the Green Party battle bus which is parked in
:16:05. > :16:09.Ashford in Kent. What is special about this vehicle? It runs from
:16:10. > :16:19.chip fat oil so it is more friendly to the environment. But boss was
:16:20. > :16:25.boiling. The next stop is Gillingham to see Labour. Labour have just
:16:26. > :16:58.hired Barack Obama's election guru David Axelrod to help them
:16:59. > :17:05.hired Barack Obama's election guru Ed Balls. Back in the car and we're
:17:06. > :17:11.flagging. Final stop, Southwark in south London. We are in the right
:17:12. > :17:18.place, this is Simon Hughes' Lib Dem taxi. The Lib Dems are campaigning
:17:19. > :18:51.as the party of in. But are they in trouble? Your party president
:18:52. > :18:56.as the party of in. But are they in over the mistakes bankers. You have
:18:57. > :19:03.made a strong pro-environment stands synonymous with the politics of the
:19:04. > :19:07.left, why have you done that? Why should an equal minded Conservative
:19:08. > :19:15.vote for you? I think one of the reasons why many Conservatives, I
:19:16. > :19:18.met them in Chester where they are stopping coalbed methane
:19:19. > :19:24.exploration, lots of Conservatives are looking to vote for us beyond
:19:25. > :19:28.issues like fracking and the Green belt, and many of them are concerned
:19:29. > :19:33.about the fact we haven't reformed the banks. This morning we had the
:19:34. > :19:39.Bank of England chief coming out and saying we have a huge house price
:19:40. > :19:46.bubble and people recognise that many of the parties offering the
:19:47. > :19:56.same are not working. And yet the polls show that the hardline
:19:57. > :20:00.greenery is not winning. We are looking to travel our number of MEPs
:20:01. > :20:06.and we have people recognising that we have to change the way our
:20:07. > :20:09.economic 's, politics and society works so that everyone has
:20:10. > :20:16.sufficient resources within the limits of the one planet because one
:20:17. > :20:22.planet is all we have got. You want all electricity to be generated by
:20:23. > :20:27.renewables, is that right? So where would the electricity come from on
:20:28. > :20:33.days when the wind is not blowing? Most of the electricity is there. It
:20:34. > :20:37.is mature. We need to be hooked into a European wide grid, we need a
:20:38. > :20:43.smart grid that will allow for demand to be adjusted according to
:20:44. > :20:48.supply. So we would take French nuclear power, would we? We need to
:20:49. > :20:59.work with a partnership across Europe. We are being left behind and
:21:00. > :21:03.we are losing opportunities. 50% of German renewable electricity is
:21:04. > :21:13.owned by communities and it stays within communities, rather than the
:21:14. > :21:24.big six energy companies. So you have still got to take the French
:21:25. > :21:31.nuclear power. What we need to do... Nuclear is a dead technology,
:21:32. > :21:33.going down in the developed world. At the moment the Government
:21:34. > :21:40.proposes the most expensive proposal for Britain and yet the last two
:21:41. > :21:45.plans took 17 years to bring online, way too slow for what we need now.
:21:46. > :21:49.We know what the Green council would be like if you were to win more
:21:50. > :21:55.seats on Thursday because you run Brighton. Your own Green MP joined
:21:56. > :22:01.strikers against the council, the local Greens are at each other's
:22:02. > :22:05.throats, a council ridden with factionalism, attempts to raise
:22:06. > :22:10.council tax to 5%, attempted coups against the local Green leader by
:22:11. > :22:16.other Greens and you have had to bring in mediators. If you look at
:22:17. > :22:22.the life of people in Brighton and Hove, it has seen its visitor
:22:23. > :22:28.numbers go up by 50,000, it has become the top seaside resort in
:22:29. > :22:33.Britain, we have seen GCSE results going up significantly. These are
:22:34. > :22:38.the things affecting people's lives in Brighton and Hove. 60% of
:22:39. > :22:45.Brighton and Hove people think life is better and the Greens. We have a
:22:46. > :22:50.debate to be had from next year's election and perhaps we can have
:22:51. > :22:55.that debate next year. But you hold up Brighton as the way the city
:22:56. > :22:59.should be run? We have made huge progress, we have found money to be
:23:00. > :23:08.brought into the city to improve Green spaces. I was on the big ride
:23:09. > :23:12.in London yesterday, and we need to change our roads so they worked the
:23:13. > :23:21.people as well as cars. Which side of the picket line were you on in
:23:22. > :23:26.Brighton? With Caroline Lucas? I was in London, travelling around as I do
:23:27. > :23:33.most days. From Penzance to Newcastle and many areas in between.
:23:34. > :24:08.Probably a good move. Thank you. I'm joined now by the Conservative MP,
:24:09. > :24:18.the Lib Dem MP Simon Hughes and Sajid Javid. We want to see a
:24:19. > :24:22.European Union resolutely focused on the single market, free trade, and
:24:23. > :24:27.only we can bring about that change. Labour and Lib Dems are happy with
:24:28. > :24:34.the status quo, in fact they would like more integration, and a UKIP
:24:35. > :24:39.party can not deliver the change. Hilary Benn, at this stage positions
:24:40. > :24:42.usually romp home in European elections and no party has gone on
:24:43. > :24:50.to form a government without winning the European elections first. Now it
:24:51. > :24:56.suggests you could become second, you haven't handled UKIP very well
:24:57. > :25:00.either. There is a lot of alienation from politics around, globalisation
:25:01. > :25:05.has left some behind and people are concerned about that but UKIP will
:25:06. > :25:09.not provide the answer. Nigel Farage only talks about Europe. We are to
:25:10. > :25:15.hear it would not be in the interests of British people to come
:25:16. > :25:19.out of Europe. We do want a season change in Europe, for example we
:25:20. > :25:24.want longer periods when new member states come in. We don't think child
:25:25. > :25:30.tax credits should be paid to children not living in the UK, but
:25:31. > :25:37.Nigel Farage is also proposing to charge us when we see the GP, to
:25:38. > :25:41.halve maternity pay, and he wants a flat tax. UKIP is not the answer to
:25:42. > :25:46.the problems we face and we will continue to campaign as we have done
:25:47. > :25:56.to show that we are putting forward policies on energy prices, and in
:25:57. > :26:02.the end that is what people will look for. Simon Hughes, you will be
:26:03. > :26:09.lucky to come forth. The voters decide these things. Really? I never
:26:10. > :26:12.knew that. My response to the UKIP question is that they get support
:26:13. > :26:18.because they have never been in power, they are never likely. A bit
:26:19. > :26:29.like the way you used to never get into power. I accept that, but now
:26:30. > :26:33.we are in government. The reality is that laws made in Brussels, we make
:26:34. > :26:38.together by agreement, and it is the case from the Commons figures that
:26:39. > :26:48.only seven out of 100 laws are made in Brussels. Actually they have been
:26:49. > :26:53.shown not to be the only ones. 14 out of 100. If we were to come out
:26:54. > :27:03.of Europe, we would seriously disadvantage our economics and the
:27:04. > :27:08.jobs... 3 million jobs depend on the European Union. If the Conservatives
:27:09. > :27:12.comes third or even a poor second, it will show that people don't
:27:13. > :27:18.really trust your promise about European referendum. They have been
:27:19. > :27:22.there before, they don't trust you. What we have already shown, despite
:27:23. > :27:27.being in coalition with Liberal Democrats, we have shown progress on
:27:28. > :27:31.Europe, we have vetoed a European treaty when people said we
:27:32. > :27:35.wouldn't, we have cut the European budget which is something Liberal
:27:36. > :27:40.Democrats and Labour MEPs voted against, we cut it by ?8 billion.
:27:41. > :27:49.But overall we are still paying more. We have still cut it. We have
:27:50. > :27:56.taken Britain out of the bailout fund that Labour signed us up to. We
:27:57. > :28:00.are now going to take that same energy to Europe and renegotiate our
:28:01. > :28:10.relationship and let the British people decide in a referendum. Why
:28:11. > :28:13.has Ed Miliband become such a liability for your party? Even your
:28:14. > :28:19.own MPs are speaking out against him. If you look at the polls, we
:28:20. > :28:25.have been in the lead almost consistently. The voters will
:28:26. > :28:30.decide. Ed Miliband is a decent man, but what really marks him out is
:28:31. > :28:38.that he is thinking about the problems the country faces. Simon
:28:39. > :28:47.and Sajid both support the bedroom tax, we will scrap it. Ed Miliband
:28:48. > :28:56.said the energy market doesn't work for consumers, we will freeze energy
:28:57. > :29:05.prices while we change the system. So why are his ratings even lower
:29:06. > :29:09.than Nick Clegg's? They will be voted for next year in the general
:29:10. > :29:14.election, and if I were David Cameron I would ask myself this
:29:15. > :29:17.question - the economy is recovering, why is it that David
:29:18. > :29:23.Cameron and the Conservatives have been behind in the polls? Because in
:29:24. > :29:27.the end the big choice in British politics is between the two parties
:29:28. > :29:33.that say, if we sought the deficit everything is fine, and Labour who
:29:34. > :29:38.say that there are things about this country, the insecurity that has
:29:39. > :29:44.given rise for support for UKIP, and we are the ones talking about doing
:29:45. > :29:48.something about zero hours contracts. The more your leader
:29:49. > :29:58.bangs on about Europe, the worse your poll ratings get. He is out of
:29:59. > :30:02.the kilter with British people. It may not be a majority of people who
:30:03. > :30:08.think that we ought to stay in the European Union, but when you speak
:30:09. > :30:11.to people about it, people understand that we are better in
:30:12. > :30:16.them out. In the elections on Thursday, that is not about who runs
:30:17. > :30:19.Britain, that is for next year. In terms of the local councils, we have
:30:20. > :30:24.battles on the ground, like in my community, where we are trying to
:30:25. > :30:29.take it back from the Labour Party. Affordable housing has just not been
:30:30. > :30:35.delivered. We have delivered that in office and we had admitted to that.
:30:36. > :30:40.-- we are committed to that. Labour have actually demolished homes. So,
:30:41. > :30:46.people want more affordable homes. One issue which is behind people's
:30:47. > :30:49.antipathy towards immigrants is that they cannot get the affordable
:30:50. > :30:54.housing they need. We as a government have delivered more
:30:55. > :30:57.affordable housing in this Parliament -170,000 new properties
:30:58. > :31:09.earning and more, over the next three years. That does not work out
:31:10. > :31:15.that very many per year. Overall housing is a lot less than it was in
:31:16. > :31:19.2006. Let me tell you, under the Labour government, we lost nearly
:31:20. > :31:25.half a million affordable homes. Fewer built than under Mrs Thatcher
:31:26. > :31:29.or under the coalition. What is your last ditch message to the millions
:31:30. > :31:37.of Tory voters thinking of voting UKIP on Thursday? First, what I
:31:38. > :31:41.would say is, Ed Miliband also said that we should not tackle the
:31:42. > :31:45.deficit, it was not a priority. As a result of our resolute focus, we now
:31:46. > :31:50.have the fastest growing economy in the developed world, and more people
:31:51. > :31:53.employed than ever before. I am sure you will have more chance to say
:31:54. > :31:58.that at the general election, what is the answer to my question? We
:31:59. > :32:02.need a Europe which is focused on free trade and the single market.
:32:03. > :32:06.Labour and Lib Dems are happy with the status quo, we are not. We are
:32:07. > :32:14.the only party which can bring about change, UKIP cannot bring about any
:32:15. > :32:20.change. Hilary Benn, why not have a referendum on Europe? If you think
:32:21. > :32:23.like Nigel Farage that you should get out of Europe, I do not agree
:32:24. > :32:29.with him, because Britain's future lies in Europe. My message simply
:32:30. > :32:33.would be, vote for a party which wants to tackle insecurity in the
:32:34. > :32:38.workplace, to give more security to the 9 million people who are now
:32:39. > :32:43.privately renting, build more homes. What Simon has just said about the
:32:44. > :32:46.coalition's housing record, it has been appalling, the lowest level
:32:47. > :32:51.since Stanley Baldwin was Prime Minister. With Labour, you have got
:32:52. > :32:55.a party which will freeze energy prices, more childcare, policies
:32:56. > :33:01.which directly address the problems which people face. I think the
:33:02. > :33:04.public will realise that. UKIP offers absolutely nothing at all for
:33:05. > :33:09.the future of the country. You used to be in favour of a referendum? We
:33:10. > :33:13.are in favour, we voted for one, we have legislated for one. The next
:33:14. > :33:17.time there is a change between Britain and Europe, in the
:33:18. > :33:24.relationship, there will be a referendum. We have supported that.
:33:25. > :33:31.We voted for it. You would obviously want to vote yes in any referendum.
:33:32. > :33:37.We would. But if you had one now, it would be for coming out or staying
:33:38. > :33:39.in, and you are going to wait until there is another step son shall
:33:40. > :33:49.transfer of powers to Brussels, and then say to people, either vote for
:33:50. > :33:55.this substantial transfer or vote to leave! Of course they will vote to
:33:56. > :33:59.leave! Yes, we are not natural partners with the Conservatives, but
:34:00. > :34:04.we do not want to be distracted at the moment by a referendum in the
:34:05. > :34:10.future in relation to Europe. Because what we have done is built
:34:11. > :34:14.our own economy back. That has been the priority. We do not want
:34:15. > :34:19.artificial priorities. The Tories want an artificial date plucked out
:34:20. > :34:24.of the air for their own advantage. We say, let's get on with being
:34:25. > :34:27.positive about being in Europe, and many people on the doorstep
:34:28. > :34:31.absolutely understand that. Yesterday, the Energy Minister said
:34:32. > :34:35.that he thought the party would be willing to campaign for a British
:34:36. > :34:41.withdrawal from the EU if there was not a successful negotiation, a
:34:42. > :34:51.successful repatriation, do you agree with that? First of all, I am
:34:52. > :34:57.very optimistic... I got that I am going into these negotiations with
:34:58. > :35:03.confidence but Michael Fallon is one of your ministerial colleagues, he
:35:04. > :35:07.said that if we cannot get a deal on substantial repatriation, then the
:35:08. > :35:11.party should be willing to campaign for a British withdrawal - do you
:35:12. > :35:15.agree? My view is that I am confident we will get a deal, and
:35:16. > :35:20.then we will put it to the British people. But you will have to take a
:35:21. > :35:23.line. If you do not get substantial repatriations, will you side with
:35:24. > :35:28.Michael Fallon all with the Prime Minister, who seems to want to stay
:35:29. > :35:32.in regardless? I may only have been in politics for four years, but I am
:35:33. > :35:36.not going to ask that kind of hypothetical question. Every
:35:37. > :35:41.question I ask is hypothetical, that is the fascination of the programme!
:35:42. > :35:45.I go into these negotiations with complete confidence. If you look at
:35:46. > :35:53.our track record, it suggests we will be successful. Hilary Benn,
:35:54. > :35:58.what is the difference between your attitude and that of the Lib Dems
:35:59. > :36:02.towards a referendum? We have been very clear that if it is proposed at
:36:03. > :36:07.sometime in the future, further powers would be transferred, then,
:36:08. > :36:13.we would put that to the British people in a referendum. That is the
:36:14. > :36:18.Lib Dem position. This is our position, which I am planing to you.
:36:19. > :36:21.It would be an in-out referendum. We would only agree to a transfer of
:36:22. > :36:26.powers if we thought that it was in the interest of Britain. But we
:36:27. > :36:33.believe that Britain's place remains and should remain in Europe, for
:36:34. > :36:40.economic reasons. But we also want to see some changes in our
:36:41. > :36:42.relationship with Europe, and electing Labour MEPs on Thursday
:36:43. > :36:49.will be a way of boosting that argument. In what way is everything
:36:50. > :36:56.you have just said not entirely sell my must with the Lib Dem position? I
:36:57. > :37:02.am not worried about that. -- entirely synonymous. It is the
:37:03. > :37:05.dividing line between us and UKIP, because they somehow believe that
:37:06. > :37:09.Britain leaving the European Union would be good for our economy. Truth
:37:10. > :37:15.is, it would be really bad, because so many jobs depend on being part of
:37:16. > :37:26.a large market in an increasingly globalised world. I have got one
:37:27. > :37:31.more question for you on the locals. We seem to have lost our connection
:37:32. > :37:35.with Leeds. What is the single most important reason that people should
:37:36. > :37:39.vote for you in the local election? Because taxpayers' money is just
:37:40. > :37:43.that, it does not belong to the politicians, and we can do a lot
:37:44. > :37:46.more and get more for less with taxpayers money. If you look at
:37:47. > :37:50.Conservative councils up and down the country, most of them have not
:37:51. > :37:55.been raising council tax, they have been getting more for less, and that
:37:56. > :37:58.is what people deserve. We will produce the maximum amount possible
:37:59. > :38:01.of affordable housing to meet the housing needs of Britain, instead of
:38:02. > :38:09.the richest minority having flats and houses that nobody can afford.
:38:10. > :38:16.We seem to have lost Hilary Benn. I can answer for him. I will do it -
:38:17. > :38:20.he would certainly say, vote Labour. You are watching The Sunday
:38:21. > :38:25.Politics. We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who now leave us for
:38:26. > :38:34.Sunday Politics Scotland. Coming up in
:38:35. > :38:46.Hello. Coming up in the North West: Going for a song ` how one council
:38:47. > :38:52.plans to cope with cuts to adult social care. No singing here in the
:38:53. > :38:54.studio, but joining me ahead of this week's local elections are three
:38:55. > :38:57.council leaders: the Liberal Democrat leader of Stockport, Sue
:38:58. > :38:59.Derbyshire, the Labour leader of Oldham, Jim McMahon and the
:39:00. > :39:08.Conservative leader of Trafford council, Sean Anstee. Welcome to you
:39:09. > :39:12.all. Sue, this week we hear that unemployment has dipped slightly in
:39:13. > :39:15.the North West. Will that play out slightly in the local elections, do
:39:16. > :39:18.you think? I'm not sure it will play out in the local elections. It's
:39:19. > :39:22.obviously important for the individuals looking for work, that
:39:23. > :39:26.jobs are being created. Can you take any credit for that or is it a
:39:27. > :39:30.government thing? I think locally we can take some credit. We work really
:39:31. > :39:37.hard and have schemes to try to promote employment locally and help
:39:38. > :39:42.businesses take people on. Let's take a look at one exchange. It's
:39:43. > :39:45.Prime Minister's Questions. As the Prime Minister has acknowledged, the
:39:46. > :39:49.number of people who are in work who have to claim housing benefit in
:39:50. > :39:53.order to make ends meet is growing. The cost of that will be an extra ?5
:39:54. > :39:56.billion over the course of parliament. Does the Prime Minister
:39:57. > :40:07.really consider that a sign of success? The good news from his seat
:40:08. > :40:10.is unemployment ` down 31%. Some of those people in work are claiming
:40:11. > :40:13.housing benefit, but because of this government's long`term economic
:40:14. > :40:19.plan, more of his constituents are in work and earning. Jim, what do
:40:20. > :40:22.you think? Are things getting better? I think you need to look
:40:23. > :40:26.beyond the numbers being put across as a measure of unemployment. The
:40:27. > :40:29.government will use the job`seeker's Allowance target. But in most areas,
:40:30. > :40:33.those numbers can't be relied on. They can't give an accurate
:40:34. > :40:36.impression of unemployment. For example, if you believe the
:40:37. > :40:41.government, unemployment in Oldham has fallen by 45%. The reality is,
:40:42. > :40:47.when you include Universal Credit, it's more like 22%. Nearly half the
:40:48. > :40:49.people they say are in work aren't. They've been taken from job`seeker's
:40:50. > :40:57.Allowance and put on Universal Credit. So it's getting better but
:40:58. > :41:02.not as good as the government says? Is it about secure, long`term
:41:03. > :41:06.unemployment... If that's a measure of success, the government has
:41:07. > :41:10.failed. The number of people in part`time work, who want to be
:41:11. > :41:13.full`time, has risen significantly. The number of people on zero`hour
:41:14. > :41:19.contracts has risen. The number of people being paid the minimum wage
:41:20. > :41:22.is higher than it's ever been. It's not enough to pay the bills. Sean,
:41:23. > :41:29.we're hearing this is more about statistics than reality? I don't
:41:30. > :41:34.think it is. We're seeing more jobs in this country than ever before.
:41:35. > :41:36.The north of the country is benefiting from that. This is a
:41:37. > :41:46.Conservative`led government, delivering on its promises. Locally,
:41:47. > :41:50.we're working hard. There's a significant improvement on a few
:41:51. > :41:55.years ago. We've got more work to do but I think it's great that more
:41:56. > :42:02.people are in work, earning. What do you say... It's also about switching
:42:03. > :42:06.people to Universal Credit? If we're debating whether 45% or 22% is a
:42:07. > :42:18.good thing, more people in work is a great thing. It's working. I don't
:42:19. > :42:22.accept that any work is better than none if you don't have security. If
:42:23. > :42:24.you have a zero`hours contract you can't get a mortgage. Mortgage
:42:25. > :42:30.providers want security. That affects how people live. If you want
:42:31. > :42:37.to be full`time, so you can pay the bills and have a reasonable
:42:38. > :42:46.lifestyle... Across the country, the average contract is 32 hours.
:42:47. > :42:49.Productivity is going down because people are sharing out. It's not
:42:50. > :42:53.good for the UK economy and from a European point of view it doesn't
:42:54. > :43:43.make us competitive. Let's move on. The burning issue
:43:44. > :43:45.open to abuse. They could be breaking regulations and given
:43:46. > :44:49.people radiation poisoning. you need? We want to have more
:44:50. > :44:52.control and drive our own future. At the moment, we're dependent on
:44:53. > :44:57.government to choose the issue of the day. The issue in Oldham might
:44:58. > :45:03.be different from the issue in Stockport or Trafford. We want to
:45:04. > :45:07.define our own future. It took too long for the government to realise
:45:08. > :45:15.bookmakers were an issue. They'd spread out by that point. We want to
:45:16. > :45:20.limit future bookmakers, but now we're stuck with the ones we've got.
:45:21. > :45:24.But do you accept the government has devolved more powers to local
:45:25. > :45:26.government than you used to have? If you look at centrally`derived
:45:27. > :45:42.legislation, with Eric Pickles on his bandwagon... Government can't
:45:43. > :45:57.let go. We're saying, rather than giving us this here and there, give
:45:58. > :46:00.us genuine devolution. So we can decide ourselves. Sue, does London
:46:01. > :46:04.'get' local government in the North West? No. I don't think it gets
:46:05. > :46:07.local government anywhere. There's a real divide between how Westminster
:46:08. > :46:12.views the world and how local government does. There's a lack of
:46:13. > :46:16.trust... They think you're wasting money or something? It's easy to
:46:17. > :46:20.blame us ` we work within restrictions. Local government is
:46:21. > :46:30.the most efficient part of government. When given the ability,
:46:31. > :46:38.we deliver the outcomes central government wants, better than their
:46:39. > :46:46.own departments. Sean, what's your take on how much power you've
:46:47. > :46:50.actually got? All local authorities have a general power of competence.
:46:51. > :46:59.It devolves power down so we can make decisions. It's a big step
:47:00. > :47:10.forward. There's an awful lot more to do. Especially in Greater
:47:11. > :47:15.Manchester. We can work together effectively. But what's stopping
:47:16. > :47:22.you? If you've got that power... Why do you need... Why can't you do
:47:23. > :47:28.certain things? Well, can a council make a decision that it wouldn't
:47:29. > :47:32.normally be permitted to? The wider point is that there are still things
:47:33. > :47:37.part of central government that we think we can do better locally.
:47:38. > :47:41.That's the difference. What would you like to be able to do? In
:47:42. > :47:46.Greater Manchester, we're taking steps on transport and the economy.
:47:47. > :47:56.We need more of an ability to collaborate with each other. We can
:47:57. > :48:00.deliver better outcomes. Well, the main reason my guests are
:48:01. > :48:03.here is to explain why their party should be running your councils.
:48:04. > :48:08.Let's remind ourselves of what's up for grabs. When we go to the polls
:48:09. > :48:12.on Thursday, 26 councils across the North West are holding elections for
:48:13. > :48:16.a third of their seats. Labour controls 21, including Manchester
:48:17. > :48:27.and Liverpool. The Conservatives ` two. The Lib Dems ` one. Two are
:48:28. > :48:31.under no overall control, so where's the excitement? There are two huge
:48:32. > :48:34.contests ` Trafford and West Lancashire. The Conservatives are
:48:35. > :48:38.desperate to defend. Labour are extremely keen to win. If Labour
:48:39. > :48:43.took them from Conservative control, Ed Miliband could expect to be Prime
:48:44. > :48:48.Minister this time next year. Labour have also got designs on two
:48:49. > :48:51.councils under no overall control. They have a reasonable expectation
:48:52. > :48:56.of taking them. Then there's the Lib Dem meltdown. They've lost almost
:48:57. > :49:02.half their councils here in the North West over the last four years.
:49:03. > :49:05.How low can they go? So what will be the challenges for whoever wins? The
:49:06. > :49:08.biggest one will remain how to provide good services with less
:49:09. > :49:15.money. We've been looking at how some of our councils are trying to
:49:16. > :49:18.manage it. From care homes to school dinners,
:49:19. > :49:24.throughout the decades these services would be provided by the
:49:25. > :49:27.local authority. But in times of efficiencies, savings and cuts, the
:49:28. > :49:34.way local services operate and deliver services are changing. In
:49:35. > :49:40.Trafford, the bins are now collected by a private company. The council
:49:41. > :49:43.and the rest of Greater Manchester is also looking at plans to put
:49:44. > :49:53.street cleaning, road repairs and street lighting into private hands.
:49:54. > :49:57.Outsourcing... All those words... They've been used for a long time,
:49:58. > :50:03.not just in England. It's a mechanism for getting more for less.
:50:04. > :50:11.The choice of organisational form is important. This singing session is
:50:12. > :50:19.for people with dementia. It's run by volunteers and the council
:50:20. > :50:32.provides the venue. Other adult services in Salford could soon be
:50:33. > :50:36.run as a mutual. It means it would be owned by staff and service users.
:50:37. > :50:42.The idea of not working for the council is something I wouldn't have
:50:43. > :50:48.dreamed of. Mutuals, if it fits... Services for the people by the
:50:49. > :50:57.people is catching on with councils. But is it a case of smoking mirrors?
:50:58. > :51:02.It's like throwing the issue back to the workforce. 'You solve the
:51:03. > :51:12.problem'. It's another form of cuts. The fact of the matter is, if there
:51:13. > :51:16.are cuts, it's duping the workforce. Councils may be short on money, but
:51:17. > :51:24.not on choice when it comes to how services are provided. The key issue
:51:25. > :51:29.is making the right choice. Talking about the right choice, you
:51:30. > :51:34.want to privatise more services? We've got a choice about how we cope
:51:35. > :51:41.with the next three years. How you sustain discretionary services.
:51:42. > :51:45.Parks and so on. There are two choices ` stop them or think
:51:46. > :51:49.differently. Using the private sector is one option we're
:51:50. > :52:01.exploring. The bins are already collected. There has to be
:52:02. > :52:08.accountability, but if we can sustain a service it's better than
:52:09. > :52:12.not having it at all. But do you think privatising it would just mean
:52:13. > :52:26.the service remains, or would it get better? There are huge options. We
:52:27. > :52:29.want to be able to say these are the expectations, how can we generate an
:52:30. > :52:40.income. These are the standards, let's improve them and use the
:52:41. > :52:48.economies of scale. It's important there's governance. We make
:52:49. > :52:57.decisions for the long`term. That's the driving factor. Sue, you're not
:52:58. > :53:05.entirely convinced? In Stockport we created solutions for our bin
:53:06. > :53:13.collections. We're not part of the current bid most of the other
:53:14. > :53:19.authorities are in. We have to look at how we deliver services. How we
:53:20. > :53:24.do them in the best possible way. So why aren't you keen to go down that
:53:25. > :53:36.road? We already have an independent company doing the work. We're
:53:37. > :53:42.reviewing whether that suits us. We might use others. We're not
:53:43. > :53:47.convinced pure privatisation would save us the money. We need to look
:53:48. > :53:55.at how we do it. In Oldham, you are considering this? Categorically not!
:53:56. > :53:59.We were included, as all authorities were, in the exercise. But when any
:54:00. > :54:08.of us are going out, we're automatically included. We're not
:54:09. > :54:13.duplicated. We're not interested in this. There's a danger that we look
:54:14. > :54:25.at that as the solution but we already provide value for money.
:54:26. > :54:31.We've modernised. We're working a seven`day week for street cleaning.
:54:32. > :54:41.So what do you say when people say we want to keep these going but
:54:42. > :54:46.something has to change? It's not the answer. If you want to look at
:54:47. > :54:58.somebody to run these things, talk to us and we'll do it. We're very
:54:59. > :55:10.cheap and do an excellent job. All councils have to think creatively.
:55:11. > :55:22.We're going through a process to think whether we could use a private
:55:23. > :55:26.sector partner... Use a mutual... Collaborate... But why go down that
:55:27. > :55:29.route when these two say they can manage? This is a sensationalist
:55:30. > :55:31.debate. They're contributing to help councils deliver their services.
:55:32. > :55:38.This isn't new. It's happened for years. Look at Trafford. There are
:55:39. > :55:41.great examples and some that aren't. If there's a way of sustaining a
:55:42. > :55:54.service, we're going through a process to say we have to think
:55:55. > :55:57.differently. We've heard from the three main parties who run councils
:55:58. > :56:05.across the North West. What about some of the others standing? The
:56:06. > :56:09.cuts have gone too far. We've seen a welfare safety net snatched away. We
:56:10. > :56:15.need to support the most vulnerable. One million people last year
:56:16. > :56:19.depended on food banks. In the world's sixth richest economy. It's
:56:20. > :56:25.not right. Labour has lost five million votes since 1997. These
:56:26. > :56:31.people ` the left behind ` are looking for something different.
:56:32. > :56:39.Something new. They're looking for UKIP. Let's pick up on UKIP. Jim,
:56:40. > :56:49.some former Labour people have turned to UKIP. They're trying to
:56:50. > :56:52.win votes from you? Up and down the country, UKIP are a ramshackle group
:56:53. > :56:58.of people. Brought together from a range of interests. Nobody has a
:56:59. > :57:06.clue what they stand for. But they're very popular? Getting out
:57:07. > :57:17.Europe... Stopping immigration... The media are obsessed with this
:57:18. > :57:22.'new' party. It's a European debate. We're talking about local council
:57:23. > :57:30.services. When I go out to the doorsteps, they're pleased with the
:57:31. > :57:33.council and get what we want to do. People are making a conscious
:57:34. > :57:41.decision to separate out the European elections. Even on postal
:57:42. > :57:44.vote returns, we're seeing that people are voting in the local
:57:45. > :57:47.elections and perhaps not taking their vote for the Europeans.
:57:48. > :57:59.Ultimately, UKIP hurt the Tories more. They're targeting marginal
:58:00. > :58:03.wards? Well, none of them have put forward a proposal to say what they
:58:04. > :58:10.would do with the council over the coming years. They should do. If
:58:11. > :58:17.they're sensible, they should be able to say their policies. Neither
:58:18. > :58:20.do the Labour Party. They're standing in some of our seats, but
:58:21. > :58:30.I'm putting forward a message why people should continue to vote
:58:31. > :58:36.Conservative. But in the meantime, a lot of voters seem to have gone off
:58:37. > :58:39.you? We have a strong argument to be able to say you need to keep a
:58:40. > :58:46.Conservative council ` the lowest council tax in the North West, 10p
:58:47. > :58:52.car parking, libraries protected... These are real decisions and we want
:58:53. > :59:00.to keep delivering. Sue, how low can the Lib Dems go? I can't answer that
:59:01. > :59:12.but I'm confident that people in Stockport recognise our value. We
:59:13. > :59:22.ran the council for a while. The 80s, 90s... People don't want to
:59:23. > :59:28.see... They like the way it's run. There is a need for opposition. The
:59:29. > :59:40.rise of UKIP means people feel alienated. Lots of people have
:59:41. > :59:43.suffered ` the financial crash hit everybody. The measures taken to
:59:44. > :59:52.redress the economy have not been easy. We'll see how they get on.
:59:53. > :59:58.It's time for the rest of the week's news now.
:59:59. > :00:03.Bolton MP Yasmin Qureshi is leading calls for a public enquiry into drug
:00:04. > :00:06.use for a pregnancy test in the 70s. Some families say it led to birth
:00:07. > :00:10.defects. It's emerged that a Manchester
:00:11. > :00:13.restaurant, run by the sons of one of UKIP's top candidates, was fined
:00:14. > :00:18.last year for employing illegal immigrants. The candidate is
:00:19. > :00:23.standing in Yorkshire and his family are appealing.
:00:24. > :00:26.The Commons Business Committee challenged bosses from American
:00:27. > :00:30.giant Pfizer over its plans to buy AstraZeneca. The drug company
:00:31. > :00:34.employs 5,000 people across the region.
:00:35. > :00:38.'Bird brained' was the RSPB's verdict on plans for a cull along
:00:39. > :00:41.the Lancashire coast. It's challenged the government's backing
:00:42. > :00:46.for a plan that BAE Systems proposed, to stop birds being sucked
:00:47. > :00:49.into jet engines. And the Mayor of Liverpool says this
:00:50. > :00:52.year's International Music Festival is good value for money despite
:00:53. > :01:04.wide`ranging council cuts elsewhere. The festival is council about half
:01:05. > :01:08.as much as its predecessor. Before we go, a reminder that voting
:01:09. > :01:19.in the local elections and European elections takes place on Thursday.
:01:20. > :01:25.More details on the website. That's it from us. Time to thank all of my
:01:26. > :01:27.guests ` Jim, Sue and Sean. Back to Andrew in London.
:01:28. > :01:38.thank you very much indeed. Back to Andrew.
:01:39. > :01:45.Welcome back. Politicians always insist in public that opinion polls
:01:46. > :01:50.do not matter. Even though their own parties each spend a small fortune
:01:51. > :01:56.on private polling. If they take them seriously, so do we! Let's take
:01:57. > :02:00.a closer look. First up, how the votes might fall for the European
:02:01. > :02:05.Parliament. Back in January, Labour looked set to finish first. By
:02:06. > :02:09.April, UKIP had edged into the lead. According to today's poles, Nigel
:02:10. > :02:15.Farage's party is either down into place, or has soared ahead. Both
:02:16. > :02:28.cannot be right. It is a similar picture for the general election.
:02:29. > :02:35.Labour's lead has been cut back by the Tories. This is the most
:02:36. > :02:41.unpredictable general election in a long time. It keeps us in a job! We
:02:42. > :02:45.are joined now by the managing director of the pollsters, ComRes.
:02:46. > :02:50.Welcome to the programme. While the polls all over the place on the
:02:51. > :02:53.European election? We are trying to do two things, figure out who is
:02:54. > :02:58.going to be voting, and how they are going to be voting. I think a lot of
:02:59. > :03:03.the polls are predicting quite high turnout. They are looking at more
:03:04. > :03:09.than 50% turnout, which is simply not can be the case. So, what we are
:03:10. > :03:13.doing is predicting it based on those who are ten out of ten,
:03:14. > :03:19.certain to vote, and it really benefits UKIP, it benefits them
:03:20. > :03:28.democratically, demographically, with the older age profile, who are
:03:29. > :03:33.going to vote. Another poll gives them only a one-point lead, so, come
:03:34. > :03:37.the results coming out, you are either going to look away ahead of
:03:38. > :03:42.your time or very stupid? Absolutely. That is the job of
:03:43. > :03:47.pollsters. Somebody has to be wrong. Ultimately, we were spot on in 2009,
:03:48. > :04:02.and we are hoping to be spot on on Thursday. So you were spot on on
:04:03. > :04:10.voting intention in 2009? Yes. What does the indications of what is now
:04:11. > :04:16.a four party system mean, does it change the nature of your methods?
:04:17. > :04:22.It changes how we look at the polls, how we look at what is going to
:04:23. > :04:25.happen as a result of the vote. Predicting the number of seats is
:04:26. > :04:29.becoming more and more important and more difficult to do, because
:04:30. > :04:35.distribution is becoming fundamentally important. Because it
:04:36. > :04:40.is for parties? That's right. . Does the polling give us any evidence to
:04:41. > :04:47.try to settle the matter of whether UKIP votes are coming from? Yes. We
:04:48. > :04:50.know that over 50% of the UKIP vote share is coming from the
:04:51. > :04:54.Conservatives come people who did vote Conservative in 2010. But
:04:55. > :04:59.actually, the other 50% is coming from a wide range of different
:05:00. > :05:03.sources. And what we are seeing is that ultimately, every single
:05:04. > :05:07.establishment party should be worried, because the people voting
:05:08. > :05:11.for UKIP are the people that really do not like politics at the moment.
:05:12. > :05:17.They are wanting people to speak on their behalf, so it affects all of
:05:18. > :05:21.them. There is evidence that there is now a move of some working-class
:05:22. > :05:26.Labour votes to UKIP as well? That's right. That is what I mean about the
:05:27. > :05:31.establishment vote, the people that they can really reach out to, who
:05:32. > :05:37.are really interested in things like immigration, in those single issues,
:05:38. > :05:41.where they do not feel the political parties of the mainstream are
:05:42. > :05:47.representing them. I would suggest that for the European elections,
:05:48. > :05:55.where turnout is low, ComRes may be right or wrong, but likely to vote
:05:56. > :05:59.would seem to be the yardstick. I would say that is true in almost any
:06:00. > :06:02.European election apart from this one. Because there has been so much
:06:03. > :06:06.attention on this election, because of UKIP and the probably do that
:06:07. > :06:11.they will win second, I wonder whether it is now such a big topic
:06:12. > :06:16.of conversation, the subject of Nigel Farage, that people who would
:06:17. > :06:20.otherwise talk a good game about voting UKIP but do not show up on
:06:21. > :06:26.the day are this time around likely to show up on the day? I am not
:06:27. > :06:33.entirely convinced by that. We underestimate how many people are
:06:34. > :06:37.completely disengaged by politics. I think it is very easy for us to
:06:38. > :06:42.think, and I agree that by any other standards, this is the most coverage
:06:43. > :06:47.a European election has ever had in Britain, but still, most people
:06:48. > :06:53.don't care. Instinctively, Nick, you would think, if you are a UKIP
:06:54. > :06:56.photo, if you have made that choice, then you would probably be more
:06:57. > :07:01.motivated to go and vote on Thursday? I am sure that is right.
:07:02. > :07:08.Also, the publicity that Nigel Farage has had. And also, as
:07:09. > :07:12.Catherine says, people are attracted to UKIP because they are annoyed
:07:13. > :07:16.with the established parties. If you have made that big decision to do
:07:17. > :07:19.it, then you will probably do it. The really big question which we
:07:20. > :07:25.want to take out of these elections is, how many people who have left
:07:26. > :07:29.the established parties, left the Conservative Party, in these
:07:30. > :07:34.elections on Thursday, how many of them will stick with UKIP and how
:07:35. > :07:41.many of them will go back? Nigel Farage is very confident, he is
:07:42. > :07:45.saying that 60% of those certain to vote UKIP will stick with UKIP. If
:07:46. > :07:48.that happens, it is a real problem for Downing Street. Downing Street
:07:49. > :07:52.are basically saying that many Tories will have a fling with UKIP
:07:53. > :07:59.but they will return to the marital home next year. You do two sorts of
:08:00. > :08:03.polling, for the European elections, and for the general election, which
:08:04. > :08:07.may be more relevant to the local election voters, but what is the
:08:08. > :08:12.answer to his question? We do not know at the moment. We when you ask
:08:13. > :08:44.people how likely they are to vote in the same way, they
:08:45. > :08:48.people how likely they are to vote parties. I do not think we can tell
:08:49. > :08:54.yet. If UKIP does well, there could be some leadership crises we will
:08:55. > :09:06.have to cover. I want to look at a couple of the headlines on the
:09:07. > :09:10.screen. Now, it seems, as you can see from the Mail, Mr Miliband could
:09:11. > :10:44.be in some trouble. The Labour see from the Mail, Mr Miliband could
:10:45. > :10:48.thing, I do not know if you saw the photo opportunity this week, Boris
:10:49. > :10:53.Johnson strolling through a garden with David Cameron, they got off the
:10:54. > :11:01.chew one-stop early just to appreciate the spring sunshine. But
:11:02. > :11:03.where are the shadow cabinet? I hear rumours of a politician called
:11:04. > :11:08.Yvette Cooper, but I do not know what she has been up to recently.
:11:09. > :11:12.And Rachel Reeves and Andy Burnham, all of these big hitters are not
:11:13. > :11:17.lashing themselves to the mast of the Labour election campaign. And
:11:18. > :11:21.some of these big hitters are immensely talented, Rachel Reeves,
:11:22. > :11:24.Chuka Umunna, these guys are really talented. You get the impression
:11:25. > :11:30.that they are watching this as you say and biding their time. Ed
:11:31. > :11:33.Miliband has bet the farm on this calculation that there has been this
:11:34. > :11:37.rupture between the rise in wages and the rise in inflation, although
:11:38. > :11:44.that is now beginning to slow. The calculation he is making is that in
:11:45. > :11:48.the 2012 presidential election, Mitt Romney was ahead on many of the
:11:49. > :11:53.economic indicators, but Barack Obama won because he said, I am on
:11:54. > :11:58.your side. He has bet the farm on that. But there is a big difference
:11:59. > :12:02.between Miliband and Barack Obama, which is that Barack Obama was
:12:03. > :12:07.elected in 2008 after the crash, so everything he did was about rescue.
:12:08. > :12:11.The problem for Ed Miliband and Ed Balls is that they were in power
:12:12. > :12:14.when the crash happened, so it is difficult to make that comparison.
:12:15. > :12:20.Labour is nip and tuck with the Tories, or ahead by a small amount -
:12:21. > :12:25.Mr Miliband's personal ratings are much worse than what David
:12:26. > :12:31.Cameron's were at the same stage in the political cycle, does that
:12:32. > :12:37.matter? I think personal ratings do matter, particularly if things like
:12:38. > :12:42.Ukraine gained more prominence in the media. It is a question of who
:12:43. > :12:45.you want as your statesman. But on the economy specifically, actually,
:12:46. > :12:50.the economic ratings in terms of confidence in the leader has not
:12:51. > :12:57.changed. That has not changed for years now. It is pretty stable.
:12:58. > :13:02.Actually, the narrowing of the polls could be due to the usual narrowing
:13:03. > :13:08.about 12 months out from the election, and Labour really need to
:13:09. > :13:12.use the momentum. Thank you for that. Plenty to talk about after you
:13:13. > :13:16.all go to the polls on Thursday. There will be tonnes of election
:13:17. > :13:20.coverage and results on the BBC, Thursday night, Friday, and of
:13:21. > :13:23.course, Sunday night, when the European results come out. Daily
:13:24. > :13:28.Politics is back on BBC Two tomorrow lunchtime. I will be back here next
:13:29. > :13:32.Sunday at 11 o'clock as usual for The Sunday Politics. Remember, if it
:13:33. > :13:38.is Sunday, it is The Sunday Politics.