:00:39. > :00:44.Good morning, welcome to the Sunday Politics. Senior Liberal Democrats
:00:45. > :00:51.say the public has lost trust in Nick Clegg. They call for him to go
:00:52. > :00:54.after the local election meltdown. And before the likely Europa rove a
:00:55. > :00:59.catastrophe tonight. Labour and Tories struggled to cope with the
:01:00. > :01:04.UKIP insurgency as Nigel Farage hosts his success and declares the
:01:05. > :01:07.UKIP Fox is in the Westminster henhouse.
:01:08. > :01:17.And coming up in the North West: More on the Liberal Democrats as
:01:18. > :01:18.yellow fades from our town halls. The first interview
:01:19. > :01:29.disappeared, UKIP failed to show. More analysis in just over half an
:01:30. > :01:34.hour. Cooped up in the Sunday Politics
:01:35. > :01:42.henhouse, our own boot should -- bunch of headless chickens. Nick
:01:43. > :01:46.Watt, Helen Lewis, Janan Ganesh. The Liberal Democrats lost over 300
:01:47. > :01:49.councillors on Thursday, on top of the losses in previous years, the
:01:50. > :01:53.local government base has been whittled away in many parts of the
:01:54. > :01:55.country. Members of the European Parliament will face a similar
:01:56. > :02:01.comment when the results are announced tonight. A small but
:02:02. > :02:05.growing chorus of Liberal Democrats have called on Nick Clegg to go.
:02:06. > :02:10.This is what the candidate in West Dorset had to say.
:02:11. > :02:18.People know that locally we worked incredibly hard on their councils
:02:19. > :02:21.and as their MPs, but Nick Clegg is perceived to have not been
:02:22. > :02:31.trustworthy in leadership. Do you trust him? He has lacked bone on
:02:32. > :02:34.significant issues that are the core values of our party.
:02:35. > :02:39.This is how the party president responded.
:02:40. > :02:46.At this time, it would be foolish for us as a party to turn in on
:02:47. > :02:50.ourselves. What has separated us from the Conservatives is, while
:02:51. > :02:54.they have been like cats in a sack, we have stood united, and that is
:02:55. > :03:00.what we will continue to do. The major reason why is because we
:03:01. > :03:09.consented to the coalition, unlike the Conservatives. We had a vote,
:03:10. > :03:15.and a full conference. Is there a growing question over
:03:16. > :03:22.Nick Clegg's leadership? Different people have different views. My own
:03:23. > :03:26.view is I need to consult my own activists and members before coming
:03:27. > :03:30.to a conclusion. I am looking at holding a meeting for us to discuss
:03:31. > :03:35.the issue. I have been told by some people they do not think a meeting
:03:36. > :03:39.is required, they think he should stay, and other people have decided
:03:40. > :03:44.he should go. As a responsible Democrat, I should consult the
:03:45. > :03:49.members here before coming to my conclusions. What is your view at
:03:50. > :03:55.the moment? I have got to listen to my members. But you must have some
:03:56. > :04:01.kind of you. Because I have an open mind, I do not think he must stay, I
:04:02. > :04:08.am willing to say I have not made my mind up. From a news point of view,
:04:09. > :04:14.that is my official position. I can assure you there is not much news in
:04:15. > :04:20.that! I said earlier I am not going to say he must go must stay, I am
:04:21. > :04:23.consulting my members. But you must have some kind of view of your own
:04:24. > :04:28.before you have listened to your members. There are people who are
:04:29. > :04:32.wrongfully sanctioned and end up using food banks, I am upset about
:04:33. > :04:38.that, because we should not allow... I do not mind having a
:04:39. > :04:41.sanctioning system, that I get constituents who are put in this
:04:42. > :04:49.position, we should not accept that. I rebel on the issue of a referendum
:04:50. > :04:52.on membership of the EU. I am also concerned about the way the rules
:04:53. > :04:57.have been changed in terms of how parents are treated in their ability
:04:58. > :05:03.to take children to funerals out of school time. There are questions
:05:04. > :05:09.about the leader's responsible T for those policies. Nick Clegg has made
:05:10. > :05:14.it clear he is a staunch pro-European, he wants the Liberal
:05:15. > :05:18.Democrats to be in, he does not want a referendum, if you lose a chunk of
:05:19. > :05:22.your MEPs tonight, what does that say about how in June you are with
:05:23. > :05:28.written public opinion? There are issues with how you publish your
:05:29. > :05:33.policies. I do not agree 100% with what the government is doing or with
:05:34. > :05:37.what Nick Clegg says. I do think we should stay within the EU, because
:05:38. > :05:43.the alternative means we have less control over our borders. There is a
:05:44. > :05:50.presentational issue, because what UKIP want, to leave the EU, is worse
:05:51. > :05:54.in terms of control of borders, which is their main reason for
:05:55. > :06:00.wanting to leave, which is strange. There are debate issues, but I have
:06:01. > :06:03.got personal concerns, I do worry about the impact on my constituents
:06:04. > :06:10.when they face wrongful sanctions. You have said that. A fellow Liberal
:06:11. > :06:14.Democrat MP has compared Nick Clegg to a general at the Somme, causing
:06:15. > :06:20.carnage amongst the troops. I am more interested in the policy
:06:21. > :06:24.issues, are we doing the right things? I do think the coalition was
:06:25. > :06:29.essential, we had to rescue the country from financial problems. My
:06:30. > :06:34.own view on the issue of student finance, we did the right thing, in
:06:35. > :06:39.accordance with the pledge, which was to get a better system, more
:06:40. > :06:44.students are going to university, and more from disadvantaged
:06:45. > :06:48.backgrounds. But there are issues. But Nick Clegg survive as leader
:06:49. > :06:53.through till the next election? It depends what odds you will give me!
:06:54. > :06:58.If you are not going to give me is, I am not going to get! If you listen
:06:59. > :07:04.to John hemming, he has got nothing to worry about. He does have
:07:05. > :07:13.something to worry about, they lost 300 seats, on the uniform swing, you
:07:14. > :07:17.would see people like Vince cable and Simon Hughes lose their seats.
:07:18. > :07:21.But nobody wants to be the one to we'll be nice, they would rather
:07:22. > :07:26.wait until after the next election, and then rebuild the party. Yes,
:07:27. > :07:33.there is no chance of him walking away. Somebody like Tim Farron or
:07:34. > :07:37.Vince Cable, whoever the successor is, though have to close the dagger
:07:38. > :07:42.ten months before an election, do they want that spectacle? If I were
:07:43. > :07:45.Nick Clegg, I would walk away, it is reasonably obvious that the
:07:46. > :07:51.left-wing voters who defect had towards the Labour Party in 2010
:07:52. > :07:55.will not return while he is leader. And anything he was going to achieve
:07:56. > :08:01.historically, the already has done. Unlike David Miliband, sorry, Ed
:08:02. > :08:06.Miliband or David Cameron, he has transformed the identity of the
:08:07. > :08:10.party, they are in government. Had it not been for him, they would have
:08:11. > :08:16.continued to be the main protest party, rather than a party of
:08:17. > :08:21.government. So he has got to take it all the way through until the
:08:22. > :08:26.election. If he left now, he would look like he was a tenant in the
:08:27. > :08:29.conservative house. What we are seeing is an operation to
:08:30. > :08:35.destabilise Nick Clegg, but it is a Liberal Democrat one, so it is
:08:36. > :08:38.chaotic. There are people who have never really been reconciled to the
:08:39. > :08:47.coalition and to Nick Clegg, they are pushing for this. What is Nick
:08:48. > :08:51.Clegg going to do, and Tim Farron? -- what is Vince Cable going to do?
:08:52. > :08:59.Vince Cable is in China, on a business trip. It is like John
:09:00. > :09:04.Major's toothache in 1990. What is Tim Farron doing? He is behind Nick
:09:05. > :09:09.Clegg, because he knows that his best chances of being leader are as
:09:10. > :09:15.the Westland candidate, the person who picks up the mess in a year.
:09:16. > :09:21.Vince Cable's only opportunity is on this side of the election. But you
:09:22. > :09:27.say they are not a party of government, but what looks more
:09:28. > :09:33.likely is overall the -- is no overall control. You might find a
:09:34. > :09:37.common mission looking appealing. They could still hold the balance of
:09:38. > :09:44.power. A lot of people in the Labour Party might say, let's just have a
:09:45. > :09:48.minority government. 30 odds and sods who will not turn up to vote.
:09:49. > :09:54.If they want to be up until 3am every morning, be like that! When
:09:55. > :10:03.you were in short trousers, it was like that every night, it was great
:10:04. > :10:06.fun! The Liberal Democrats will not provide confidence to a minority
:10:07. > :10:11.government, they will pull the plug and behave ruthlessly. Does Nick leg
:10:12. > :10:20.lead the Liberal Democrats into the next election? Yes. Yes. Yes. I am
:10:21. > :10:24.sorry, Nick Clegg, you are finished! We will speak to Paddy
:10:25. > :10:28.Ashdown in the second part of the show to speak about the Liberal
:10:29. > :10:32.Democrats. The UKIP insurgency could not deliver the promised earthquake,
:10:33. > :10:36.but it produced enough shock waves to discombobulated the established
:10:37. > :10:39.parties. They are struggling to work out how to deal with them. We
:10:40. > :10:53.watched it all unfold. Behind the scenes of any election
:10:54. > :10:57.night is intensely busy. Those in charge of party strategy and
:10:58. > :11:01.logistics want their people focused, working with purpose and rehearsed
:11:02. > :11:07.to make sure their spin on the results is what viewers remember and
:11:08. > :11:11.take on board. A bit of a buzz of activity inside the BBC's studio,
:11:12. > :11:17.kept and primed for the results. What this does not show due is the
:11:18. > :11:22.exterior doubles up for hospital dramas like Holby City, there are
:11:23. > :11:24.doorways that are mock-ups of accident and emergency, but the
:11:25. > :11:28.electorate will discover which of the parties they have put into
:11:29. > :11:33.intensive care, which ones are coming out of recovery and which
:11:34. > :11:38.ones are in rude health. We joined David Dimbleby. Good evening,
:11:39. > :11:44.welcome to the BBC's new election centre. When three big beasts become
:11:45. > :11:49.for on the political field, things have changed. Eric Pickles says we
:11:50. > :11:54.will be seen off next year, we will see you at Westminster! This party
:11:55. > :11:59.is going to break through next year, and you never know, we might even
:12:00. > :12:03.hold the balance of power. Old messages that gave voters in excuses
:12:04. > :12:07.to go elsewhere on the ballot paper exposed the older players to
:12:08. > :12:10.questions from within their ranks. In the hen house of the House of
:12:11. > :12:15.Commons, the fox that wants to get in has ruffled feathers. The reason
:12:16. > :12:22.they have had amazing success, a rapid rise, partly what Chuka Umunna
:12:23. > :12:28.says about being a repository, but they have also managed to sound like
:12:29. > :12:31.human beings, and that his Nigel Farage's eight victory. For some
:12:32. > :12:36.conservatives, a pact was the best form of defence. It would be
:12:37. > :12:40.preferable if all members of UKIP and voters became Tories overnight.
:12:41. > :12:46.That seems to be an ambitious proposition. Therefore, we need to
:12:47. > :12:52.do something that welcomes them on board in a slightly different way.
:12:53. > :12:56.Labour had successes, but nobody but they're wizards of Spain was
:12:57. > :13:01.completely buying a big success story. Gaffes behind the scenes and
:13:02. > :13:07.strategic errors were levelled at those who have managed the campaign.
:13:08. > :13:11.They have played a clever game, you shuffle bedecked around, and if UKIP
:13:12. > :13:16.does quite well but not well enough, that helps Labour get in. That kind
:13:17. > :13:22.of mindset will not win the general election, and we saw that in the tap
:13:23. > :13:27.ticks and strategy, and that is why, on our leaflets for the European
:13:28. > :13:32.elections, we chose deliberately not to attack UKIP, that was a bad
:13:33. > :13:38.error. Not so, so somebody who has been in that spotlight. If you look
:13:39. > :13:42.at the electoral maths, UKIP will still be aiming at the Tories in a
:13:43. > :13:46.general election. They are the second party in Rotherham, Labour
:13:47. > :13:50.will always hold what the room, it is safe, there is no point being
:13:51. > :13:55.second in a safe seat. UKIP have taken Castle Point, a Tory seat they
:13:56. > :14:00.will target. The question for the next election, can they make a
:14:01. > :14:06.challenge? The Tories will be under the gun from UKIP. The substance of
:14:07. > :14:10.these results is UKIP not in government, they do not have any
:14:11. > :14:15.MPs, they do not run a single Council, at dismissing them ceased
:14:16. > :14:17.to be an option. The question is, who will they heard most and how do
:14:18. > :14:39.you smoke the keeper's threat? Joining me now, day about and
:14:40. > :14:46.Patrick O'Flynn. Do you agree not enough was done for the elections?
:14:47. > :14:49.No, we have very good results around Hammersmith and Fulham, Croydon,
:14:50. > :14:59.Redbridge, and we picked off council wards in Haringey meaning that Lynne
:15:00. > :15:04.Featherstone and Simon Hughes worked on. The Ashcroft polling shows that
:15:05. > :15:14.in key marginals, we are well ahead and on course to win in 2015. I will
:15:15. > :15:17.be putting Mr Ashcroft's poll to Eric Pickles shortly. On the basis
:15:18. > :15:24.of the local elections your national share of the vote would be just 31%,
:15:25. > :15:28.only two points ahead of the Tories, only two points ahead of Gordon
:15:29. > :15:35.Brown's disastrous performance in 2010. Why so low? National share is
:15:36. > :15:43.one thing but I am talking about what we are doing in the key
:15:44. > :15:49.marginals. Clearly some were taken away from others like Rotherham but
:15:50. > :15:54.we have got many voters back. You are only two points better than you
:15:55. > :15:59.were in 2010 and use of your worst defeat in living memory.
:16:00. > :16:04.That is the totality. What matters is seat by seat, that is what the
:16:05. > :16:09.Republicans found in the presidential elections. Patrick
:16:10. > :16:43.O'Flynn, you performed well in the local election but it
:16:44. > :16:48.O'Flynn, you performed well in the the projected national share. I
:16:49. > :16:54.think we did well, and what was particularly good was getting the
:16:55. > :18:13.target seat list becoming clear before our eyes. Suzanne
:18:14. > :18:19.target seat list becoming clear cities know that, that is the point.
:18:20. > :18:26.What Diane Abbott is doing is try to convince London of its moral
:18:27. > :18:31.superiority so I am delighted... It is a simple fact that immigrants do
:18:32. > :18:36.not end the world if they move in next door. The economic recovery is
:18:37. > :18:40.getting more robust by the month, you have a seriously to ship problem
:18:41. > :18:49.according to many people on your own site. Maybe you're 31% of the vote
:18:50. > :18:55.is as good as it gets. Those who go round bitching about Ed Miliband
:18:56. > :19:03.have been doing that before the result. We have all polled very
:19:04. > :19:13.well. Ed Miliband does not polled very well. He has actually fashioned
:19:14. > :19:18.some really effective policies. Unemployment is tumbling, inflation
:19:19. > :19:22.is falling, growth is strengthening, and you have a leader who claims
:19:23. > :19:30.there is a cost of living crisis and he doesn't have a clue about his own
:19:31. > :19:35.cost of living. I think that was poor staff work. That he doesn't
:19:36. > :19:47.know what goes in his own shopping basket? I think his own staff could
:19:48. > :19:50.have prepared him for that. My point is that the numbers are looking
:19:51. > :20:02.better, we know that, but people don't feel better off. Then why are
:20:03. > :20:06.all consumer index polls better? They are feeling confident. They may
:20:07. > :20:12.be saying that, but people are worried about their future, their
:20:13. > :20:16.children's future. That is not what you buy today or tomorrow. If you
:20:17. > :20:19.ask people about their future and their children's future and
:20:20. > :20:25.prospects, they feel frightened. What will be a good result for you
:20:26. > :20:31.in the general election? We need to see Nigel Farage elected as an MP
:20:32. > :20:37.and he mustn't go there on his own. How many people do you think will be
:20:38. > :20:43.with him? Who knows, but we will have 20 to 30 target seat and if you
:20:44. > :20:46.put together the clusters we got in last year's County elections with
:20:47. > :20:51.the one we got this year, you can have a good guess at where they
:20:52. > :20:55.are. A number of people who voted for you and Thursday say they are
:20:56. > :21:00.going to back to the three main parties in general election. It
:21:01. > :21:08.would be foolish of me to say that they are going to stay. Some have
:21:09. > :21:17.said they have just lent their votes but voters hate being taken for
:21:18. > :21:25.granted. It is up to us to broaden our agenda, and build on our
:21:26. > :21:31.strengths, work on our weaknesses. Ed Miliband may have to do a deal
:21:32. > :21:37.with him. We have been here before, but the UKIP bubble is going to
:21:38. > :21:43.burst and that may happen around the time of Newark. Are you going to win
:21:44. > :21:47.Newark now? We are going to give it a really good crack. We love being
:21:48. > :21:56.the underdog, we don't see it as being the big goal -- the be all and
:21:57. > :22:05.end all. If you're going to get a big bounce off the elections, not to
:22:06. > :22:12.go and win your shows people who govern in Parliament, they don't
:22:13. > :22:15.vote for you. It is Labour who have given up the campaign already so we
:22:16. > :22:23.need a really big swing in our favour and we will give it a great
:22:24. > :22:30.crack. The bubble will burst at the Newark by-election, trust me. Have
:22:31. > :22:39.you been to Newark? Newark will see from local people... Where is it? It
:22:40. > :22:44.is outside the M25, I can tell you that. My point is that we are set
:22:45. > :22:49.for victory in 2015. I want to run this clip and get your take on it,
:22:50. > :22:55.an interview that Nigel Farage did with LBC. What they do is they have
:22:56. > :22:59.an auditor to make sure they spend their money in accordance with their
:23:00. > :23:10.rules. You say that is if there is something wrong with it. Hang on,
:23:11. > :23:15.hang on. This is Patrick O'Flynn, is this a friend in the media or a
:23:16. > :23:24.member of the political class? Do you regret doing that now? What were
:23:25. > :23:29.you doing? No, I was trying to get Nigel Farage to a more important
:23:30. > :23:39.interview with Sunday Times that had painstakingly organised. He was on
:23:40. > :23:44.there? I have told the LBC people next door that he was running over.
:23:45. > :23:50.So you interrupted a live interview and you don't regret that? No,
:23:51. > :23:54.because just between us I wasn't a massive enthusiast for that
:23:55. > :23:59.interview taking place at all. I know what James O'Brien is like and
:24:00. > :24:10.I knew it wouldn't be particularly edifying. But your boss wasn't happy
:24:11. > :24:19.with the intervention. Sometimes the boss gets shirty. We all upset our
:24:20. > :24:24.boss every now and again, but anyway you could be an MEP by this time
:24:25. > :24:29.tomorrow and you won't have to do this job any more. You can then just
:24:30. > :24:35.count your salary and your expenses. I will make the contribution my
:24:36. > :24:38.party leader asked me to, to restore Britain to being a self-governing
:24:39. > :24:43.country. Are you going to stay in the job or not? I would not be able
:24:44. > :24:48.to do the job in the same way but I would maybe have some kind of
:24:49. > :24:56.overview. We will leave it there. Yesterday Michael Ashcroft, a former
:24:57. > :25:01.deputy chairman, produced a mammoth opinion poll of more than 26,000
:25:02. > :25:05.voters in 26 marginal constituencies, crucial seat that
:25:06. > :25:10.will decide the outcome of the general election next year. In 26
:25:11. > :25:21.constituencies people were asked which party's candidate they would
:25:22. > :25:27.support, and Labour took a healthy 12 point lead, implying a swing of
:25:28. > :25:36.6.5% from Conservatives to Labour from the last general election. That
:25:37. > :25:44.implies Labour would topple 83 Tory MPs. The poll also shows UKIP in
:25:45. > :25:52.second place in four seats, and three of them are Labour seats.
:25:53. > :25:57.Michael Ashcroft says a quarter of those who say they would vote UKIP
:25:58. > :26:01.supported the Tories at the last election. As many as have switched
:26:02. > :26:05.from Labour and the Lib Dems combined.
:26:06. > :26:12.The communities Secretary Eric Pickles joins me now. The Ashcroft
:26:13. > :26:17.Paul that gives Labour a massive 12 point lead in the crucial marginal
:26:18. > :26:21.constituencies, you would lose 83 MPs if this was repeated in an
:26:22. > :26:29.election. It doesn't get worse than that, does it? Yesterday I went
:26:30. > :26:33.through that Paul in great detail, and what it shows is that in a
:26:34. > :26:40.number of key seats we are ahead, and somewhere behind, and I think is
:26:41. > :26:44.Michael rightly shows... You are behind in most of them. This is a
:26:45. > :26:48.snapshot and we have a year in which the economy is going to be
:26:49. > :26:53.improving, and we have a year to say to those candidates that are
:26:54. > :26:57.fighting those key seats, look, just around the corner people are ahead
:26:58. > :27:05.in the same kind of seat as you and we need to redouble our efforts. The
:27:06. > :27:08.Tory brand is dying in major parts of the country, you are the walking
:27:09. > :27:13.dead in Scotland, and now London, huge chunks of London are becoming a
:27:14. > :27:23.no-go zone for you. That's not true with regard to the northern seats.
:27:24. > :27:29.Tell me what seats you have? In terms of councillors we are the
:27:30. > :27:33.largest party in local government. After four years in power... You are
:27:34. > :27:39.smiling but no political party has ever done that. You haven't got a
:27:40. > :27:46.single councillor in the great city of Manchester. We have councillors
:27:47. > :27:52.in Bradford and Leeds, we have more... You haven't got an MP in any
:27:53. > :27:57.of the big cities? We have more councillors in the north of England
:27:58. > :28:01.than Labour. A quarter of those who say they would vote UKIP and did
:28:02. > :28:05.vote UKIP supported the Tories at the last election. Why are so many
:28:06. > :28:11.of your 2010 voters now so disillusioned? Any election will
:28:12. > :28:16.bring a degree of churning, and we hope to get as many back as we can,
:28:17. > :28:22.but we also want to get Liberal Democrats, people who voted for the
:28:23. > :28:27.Lib Dems and the Labour Party. If we concentrate on one part of the
:28:28. > :28:32.electorate, then we won't take power and I believe we will because I
:28:33. > :28:37.believe we represent a wide spectrum of opinion in this country and I
:28:38. > :28:41.believe that delivering a long-term economic plan, delivering prosperity
:28:42. > :28:45.into people 's pockets will be felt. On the basis of the local election
:28:46. > :28:51.results, you would not pick up a single Labour seat in the general
:28:52. > :28:57.election. You make the point that it is about local elections. Seats that
:28:58. > :29:05.Labour should have taken from us they didn't, which is important... I
:29:06. > :29:11.am asking what possible Labour seat you would hope to win after the
:29:12. > :29:14.results on Thursday. Local elections are local elections. The national
:29:15. > :29:19.election will have a much bigger turnout, it will be one year from
:29:20. > :29:23.now, we will be able to demonstrate to the population that the trends we
:29:24. > :29:29.are seeing already in terms of the success of our long-term economic
:29:30. > :29:34.plan, they will be feeling that in their pockets. People need to feel
:29:35. > :29:39.secure about their jobs and feel that their children have a future.
:29:40. > :29:42.Maybe so many of your people are defecting to UKIP because on issues
:29:43. > :29:51.that they really care about like mass immigration, you don't keep
:29:52. > :29:56.your promises. We have reduced immigration and the
:29:57. > :30:03.amount of pull factors. Let me give you the figures. You have said a
:30:04. > :30:08.couple of things are not true. You promised to cut net immigration to
:30:09. > :30:17.under 100,000 by 2015, last year it rose by 50,000, 212,000. You have
:30:18. > :30:23.broken your promise. We still intend to reduce the amount from non-EU
:30:24. > :30:27.countries. I want to be clear, I have no problem with people coming
:30:28. > :30:34.here who want to work and pay their national insurance and tax, to help
:30:35. > :30:37.fund the health service. What I have objection to our people coming here
:30:38. > :30:44.to get the additional benefits. You made the promise. It is our
:30:45. > :30:51.intention to deliver it. People defect to UKIP because mainstream
:30:52. > :30:56.politicians to -- like yourself do not give straight answers. Can you
:30:57. > :31:00.be straight, you will not hit your immigration target by the election,
:31:01. > :31:08.correct? We will announce measures that. People factor. Will you hit
:31:09. > :31:14.your target? It is a year from now, it is our intention to move towards
:31:15. > :31:19.the target. Is it your intention, do you say you will hit your target of
:31:20. > :31:26.under 100,000 net migration by the election? We will do our damnedest.
:31:27. > :31:30.But you will not make it. I do not know that to be fact. They also vote
:31:31. > :31:36.UKIP cos they do not trust you and Europe, David Cameron has promised a
:31:37. > :31:42.referendum, he has vowed to resign if he does not deliver one, but
:31:43. > :31:47.still your voters vote for UKIP. There were reasons why people voted
:31:48. > :31:54.for UKIP. A great deal of anger about the political system, about
:31:55. > :31:59.the Metropolitan elite that they see running programmes like this and the
:32:00. > :32:04.political programmes. We need to listen to their concerns and address
:32:05. > :32:12.them. David Cameron has got a better record on delivery. He vetoed a
:32:13. > :32:18.treaty, he stopped us having to bail out the currency. Why are you likely
:32:19. > :32:24.to convert a night in the European elections? If you do come third, it
:32:25. > :32:32.will show they do not trust you on Europe. Next year, we will face a
:32:33. > :32:36.general election, about having money in people's pockets, about who will
:32:37. > :32:43.run the country. David Davis wants to China and get the voters to trust
:32:44. > :32:50.the Tories on the referendum, he was the pledge to be brought forward to
:32:51. > :32:53.2016. He is a clever guy. But if you are going to try to negotiate a
:32:54. > :33:00.better deal to give the population a better choice, you cannot do that in
:33:01. > :33:06.a year, you will require two years. You are an Essex MP, you know about
:33:07. > :33:12.Essex people, it must be depressing that they are now voting for UKIP. I
:33:13. > :33:18.do not have any UKIP in my constituency. I felt bad to see
:33:19. > :33:26.Basildon go down and to see the leader go down. Do you know why that
:33:27. > :33:30.is? The Tory party does not resonate with the Essex people in the way
:33:31. > :33:35.that the Margaret Thatcher party did. That is why you did not get a
:33:36. > :33:43.majority in 2010 and why you will not win in 2015. We need to connect
:33:44. > :33:48.better. They will want to know about their children's future, will they
:33:49. > :33:52.have a job, a good education? When it comes to electing a national
:33:53. > :33:58.government, they do not want to see Ed Miliband in office. They are
:33:59. > :34:02.voting for Nigel Farage. In terms of what government you get, do you want
:34:03. > :34:09.to see David Cameron in number ten or Ed Miliband? Essex will want to
:34:10. > :34:15.see David Cameron. You only got 36% of the vote four years ago, your
:34:16. > :34:20.party, occurs you did not get the Essex people in the same numbers,
:34:21. > :34:28.like John Major or Margaret Thatcher did. You need more than 36% in 2015
:34:29. > :34:34.to win the election. On Thursday, your share was 29%. We were 2%
:34:35. > :34:42.behind Labour. They did not do very well either. A year before, -- a
:34:43. > :34:49.year before the election in 1997, they were on 43%. It is highly
:34:50. > :34:54.deliver the votes. We have a campaign looking at the marginals.
:34:55. > :35:00.We know exactly where we are not doing as well as we should be. I am
:35:01. > :35:04.a big fan of Michael Ashcroft. Do you think he does this to be
:35:05. > :35:10.helpful? He is a great man and a good conservative, I am a good
:35:11. > :35:13.friend of his. I think that his publication was one of the best
:35:14. > :35:21.things that happened to the party. You got 36% of the vote last time,
:35:22. > :35:27.you are down to 29, you need 38 or 39, you would get that if you had a
:35:28. > :35:34.pact with UKIP. There will be no pact. I am a Democrat. It is like a
:35:35. > :35:38.market stall, you should put your policies out there and you should
:35:39. > :35:50.not try to fix the market. Would you stop a local pact? There will be no
:35:51. > :35:55.pact with UKIP. None. It has just gone 11:35am. We say
:35:56. > :36:00.goodbye to viewers in Scotland and Northern Ireland.
:36:01. > :36:04.Coming up here, we will speak to the Liberal Democrat election
:36:05. > :36:19.coordinator Paddy Ashdown. First, Hello, I'm Arif Ansari. Coming up in
:36:20. > :36:23.the North West: Losing the Liberal Democrats ` as yellow fades from
:36:24. > :36:31.some of our town halls, the first tinge of UKIP purple emerges.
:36:32. > :36:35.But where will it lead? If the UKIP guys here in Bolton are savvy and
:36:36. > :36:38.keep working hard, it could be theirs for the taking.
:36:39. > :36:42.And to discuss the local election results, I'm joined in the studio by
:36:43. > :36:45.Mark Hunter, the Liberal Democrat MP for Cheadle. Alison McGovern, the
:36:46. > :36:51.Labour MP for Wirral South. And David Mowat, the Conservative MP for
:36:52. > :36:55.Warrington South. Mark, what is the key lesson from these elections? I
:36:56. > :36:58.think that the moment, while we are still waiting for the results of the
:36:59. > :37:03.European election, what I would suggest is that we need a period of
:37:04. > :37:07.quiet reflection. There are some hard lessons to learn for the Lib
:37:08. > :37:12.Dems. We've lost a lot of hard`working councils across the
:37:13. > :37:16.North West. `` councils. But at the same time, if we are looking for
:37:17. > :37:17.positives, we did still have a majority in five out of six
:37:18. > :37:52.Parliamentary seats in general election and all three
:37:53. > :37:59.parties, in their different ways, have something to play for.
:38:00. > :38:03.Everything to play for. So, let's look at the big picture
:38:04. > :38:05.across the region. Labour held on to all of its 21 councils it
:38:06. > :39:23.controlled. The Conservatives lost West Lancashire but did hold
:39:24. > :39:28.Liberal Democrats were comfortable in charge of Rochdale Council. Fast
:39:29. > :39:32.forward and it's standing room only, having lost four of their five
:39:33. > :39:35.seats. First of all, the Liberals are not destroyed in Rochdale. We're
:39:36. > :39:40.still a party. We're still a strong party. And the 1000 plus people who
:39:41. > :39:44.voted for me are testament to that. So I think it's a bit premature to
:39:45. > :39:48.say that liberalism is dead. Liberalism is certainly not dead in
:39:49. > :39:51.Rochdale. In Liverpool, the Lib Dems also fell hard. The only bright
:39:52. > :39:56.spots to be found were in Stockport and in South Lakeland. The local
:39:57. > :39:59.authority landscape didn't alter dramatically for the Conservatives `
:40:00. > :40:03.the Tories keeping hold of their flagship council in Trafford. We've
:40:04. > :40:08.won the seats that we wanted to defend and we've gained Timperley.
:40:09. > :40:10.People know that we are a well run, efficient Conservative council,
:40:11. > :40:14.delivering services, protecting services, with the lowest council
:40:15. > :40:20.tax in the North West. In West Lancashire it came down to the wire.
:40:21. > :40:23.The Conservatives lost overall control and will now have to share
:40:24. > :40:30.power with Labour. There were 27 seats each. It will really be an
:40:31. > :40:39.interesting year. How the various votes in the council are going to
:40:40. > :40:43.pan out. But after 12 years, 13 years, of a full Tory`led council,
:40:44. > :40:46.it's great to finally have it back home, at least for now, and
:40:47. > :40:49.hopefully in 12 months we'll swing it. It was a good following for
:40:50. > :40:53.Labour locally, who'd bagged extra seats, but there was criticism of
:40:54. > :40:57.national leadership. The centrepiece for our campaign has been the cost
:40:58. > :41:01.of living. And yet Ed didn't know his own cost of living when he went
:41:02. > :41:04.into it. He didn't know how much he was spending on shopping. And
:41:05. > :41:07.that's, sort of, really unforgivably unprofessional. In the run`up to the
:41:08. > :41:11.General Election hard work needs to be done but some may have to work
:41:12. > :41:25.harder than others to convince the electorate. What you make of the
:41:26. > :41:31.fact that one your colleagues is calling for the Nick Clegg to stand
:41:32. > :41:34.down? He isn't. Pretty close. He's called for a thorough review of the
:41:35. > :41:38.election campaign and a review of the tactics and strategy. You'd
:41:39. > :41:41.expect that after any election and he knows and I know that that was
:41:42. > :41:45.put in place before these elections happened. There is a scheduled
:41:46. > :41:50.meeting of the parliamentary party when we return and that must happen.
:41:51. > :41:53.We need to look at why we are no longer able to engage with certain
:41:54. > :41:57.sections of the community in the way we once were. We need to learn those
:41:58. > :42:02.lessons. There's no doubt about that. Let me read one line from John
:42:03. > :42:08.Pugh. "While the captain goes down for the ship, there's no need for
:42:09. > :42:12.the ship to go down by the captain". He will put his argument in his own
:42:13. > :42:16.way but I noticed that he and other MPs have stopped short of calling
:42:17. > :42:20.for Nick Clegg's resignation and I think we need to take into account
:42:21. > :42:26.the circumstances of the coalition being formed back in 2010. What the
:42:27. > :42:29.Liberal Democrats bought that was giving political stability so that
:42:30. > :42:37.the economic recovery could start to take place. `` brought to that. But
:42:38. > :42:43.we're talking about your party's fortunes. If Nick Clegg came to you
:42:44. > :42:48.and said, " Mark, you are my deputy chief whip and I want some honest
:42:49. > :42:54.advice that matter I might a vote loser, " what would you say? We have
:42:55. > :42:58.a lot of issues about how we engage about certain sections of the
:42:59. > :43:02.community that are no longer engaged with the Liberal Democrat message.
:43:03. > :43:05.We have to work harder at trying to explain our position and put forward
:43:06. > :43:09.the distinctive policies we've brought to the coalition government.
:43:10. > :43:13.Like the change in the tax thresholds, the ?10,000, which I
:43:14. > :43:19.know the Conservatives now say they support. That shows the difference
:43:20. > :43:22.in government. We want to help those that are less well off and although
:43:23. > :43:27.that was in our manifesto for the last general election, you will look
:43:28. > :43:30.in vain for any mention of it in the Conservative manifesto. They said it
:43:31. > :43:35.wasn't deliverable. The trouble you've got is that you can point to
:43:36. > :43:40.all these successes and it's all overshadowed because so many voters
:43:41. > :43:43.don't like Nick Clegg. I think there is clearly a problem about
:43:44. > :43:46.engagement, which I that knowledge, and we have to work harder at
:43:47. > :43:51.getting that message across and finding other ways to do it. But I
:43:52. > :43:56.don't think the idea of changing leaders 12 months out from a general
:43:57. > :43:59.election... The idea that in one single band we can be free of all
:44:00. > :44:05.these problems and a new leader will magically transform our fortunes, I
:44:06. > :44:10.think is for the birds. Alison, why didn't you take Trafford? Well, I'm
:44:11. > :44:14.sure the party there will be looking at what it needs to do but I don't
:44:15. > :44:24.think we can ignore the fantastic results that we had across the North
:44:25. > :44:29.West in places like Wirral. Incredibly strong results. I think
:44:30. > :44:35.the public have backed what a great labour Council has done to protect
:44:36. > :44:38.them. But the danger... When we've seen in councils run by Labour some
:44:39. > :44:43.of the worst cuts across the country... But the danger is that
:44:44. > :44:47.you are deepening support in places where you've already got it and not
:44:48. > :44:54.extend to get to places you need it. That's hardly the case. In my
:44:55. > :44:57.backyard in Wirral, where we will have in the general election two
:44:58. > :45:02.seats that I know everybody will be watching because of their
:45:03. > :45:06.marginality, labour performed really strongly. If you look at the
:45:07. > :45:09.results, we had a really good day. But you didn't even take West
:45:10. > :45:18.Lancashire. You only needed two gains. Watch live ET, we've clearly
:45:19. > :45:27.done very well. You only made one game. `` watching your BT, we've
:45:28. > :45:33.clearly done very well. I think Labour have performed incredibly
:45:34. > :45:35.well in these elections. We got to keep listening to people, keep
:45:36. > :45:41.campaigning hard, and that's what we'll do right across the North West
:45:42. > :45:43.and across the country. What about Graham Stringer calling Ed
:45:44. > :45:49.Miliband's campaign unforgivably unprofessional? Well, I just think
:45:50. > :45:53.he was wrong. Ed Miliband is a good man. I had constituents coming to me
:45:54. > :45:58.worried about zero hours contract and they said they didn't think
:45:59. > :46:02.anyone would listen. You know who listened? Ed Miliband. He listened
:46:03. > :46:06.to what we were saying and made sure that we would ban exploiters of zero
:46:07. > :46:10.hours contracts. That's the kind of person who is able to listen and
:46:11. > :46:15.take on board what people are saying and I have the confidence that he
:46:16. > :46:19.will keep doing that. David, you've lost a third of your councillors
:46:20. > :46:24.since you went into government. Yes, we have. And last Thursday, if
:46:25. > :46:29.that was a general election, the Labour Party would have won with a
:46:30. > :46:34.small working majority. In your seat, you would have been defeated.
:46:35. > :46:39.I would have been defeated and we would have lost another 30 or 40
:46:40. > :46:43.marginal seats. But the poll shows Labour 20% ahead. If they go on and
:46:44. > :46:48.win a general election from that, they will do something that no party
:46:49. > :46:52.has done ever, which is go on to win from that position. And the momentum
:46:53. > :46:54.is not with Labour. If Labour were going to win the next general
:46:55. > :47:01.election, they would be doing massively better now in places like
:47:02. > :47:04.West Lancashire and other places. They would be making substantial
:47:05. > :47:12.gains and they haven't. But there's no sign of you recovering. The
:47:13. > :47:16.opinion polls show us doing OK. Labour are a few points ahead. That
:47:17. > :47:20.result would translate into a general election win but what I'm
:47:21. > :47:24.saying is that one year before the general election, there is no
:47:25. > :47:28.momentum behind Ed Miliband. And insofar as the opinion polls are
:47:29. > :47:42.changing, the direction of change is towards us. Well, tonight they'll be
:47:43. > :47:45.hoping to add to the one MEP they already have when the votes for the
:47:46. > :47:49.European Parliament are counted. But on Friday, the UK Independence Party
:47:50. > :47:51.was toasting its first council wins. Ian Haslam reports.
:47:52. > :47:54.And I hereby declare the said Diane Parkinson is duly elected a
:47:55. > :47:57.councillor for the Halton ward. Bolton UKIP had never fielded
:47:58. > :48:00.candidates in a local election before. In taking a seat from both
:48:01. > :48:03.Labour and the Conservatives, they confirmed their position on the
:48:04. > :48:07.council. People trust me, I hope, and I can look after their local
:48:08. > :48:11.issues. We want to have UKIP on the local council elections and then we
:48:12. > :48:14.can build up from there. UKIP also finished second in 13 seats in
:48:15. > :48:17.Bolton, so could this act as a catalyst for the party's general
:48:18. > :48:21.election candidates? I think 2014 is going to be a very interesting year
:48:22. > :48:25.for UKIP nationally, to see how they cope with these seats. But in terms
:48:26. > :48:29.of the sentiment now, if the UKIP guys here in Bolton are savvy and if
:48:30. > :48:32.they keep working hard, it could be theirs for the taking. Over in
:48:33. > :48:34.Oldham, another Labour run`council, another UKIP breakthrough. Warren
:48:35. > :48:38.Bates one of two new UKIP councillors there. There has been
:48:39. > :48:41.something of a subplot in the run`up to the election here in Oldham `
:48:42. > :48:44.growing tension between Labour and UKIP. It centres around campaign
:48:45. > :48:49.leaflets distributed to thousands of homes across the borough. It's
:48:50. > :48:55.proved divisive and includes allegations of vote rigging among
:48:56. > :48:58.Asian candidates. The man behind it used to work for ex`Labour MP Phil
:48:59. > :49:02.Woolas. They say you're racist but they don't say you're lying. So when
:49:03. > :49:06.I, for example, say that the Asian community swap the votes and they
:49:07. > :49:14.Tipp`Ex them out and they come down here and they're accepted, that is
:49:15. > :49:17.true. So they don't say, "ooh, Joe, you lied". The council leader sees
:49:18. > :49:22.things differently. What I can't accept is people stirring up racism.
:49:23. > :49:25.I don't use that term lightly. Some of the things that were being said,
:49:26. > :49:28.where the wards had three Asian councillors, for example, the
:49:29. > :49:32.headlines were, "it's time for vote for one of us, one of our own".
:49:33. > :49:34.Meanwhile, another two seats went to UKIP in Hyndburn in Lancashire,
:49:35. > :49:40.where there was another political falling out. Malcolm Eric Prichard
:49:41. > :49:44.has been duly elected. Malcolm Prichard ousted his own daughter
:49:45. > :49:47.Claire from her seat. He had earlier reported her for alleged election
:49:48. > :49:51.fraud, meaning she stood as an independent after being suspended
:49:52. > :49:57.from the Labour Party. I would have liked it on better terms, because
:49:58. > :50:03.I've just knocked my daughter out. And I'm devastated at doing that.
:50:04. > :50:06.So, from inter`family to inter`council, UKIP's success has
:50:07. > :50:10.certainly stirred things up across our region.
:50:11. > :50:13.Well, before we ask my guests about the general election threat from
:50:14. > :50:24.UKIP, let's head to Oldham, home to two of its newest councillors, and
:50:25. > :50:35.Stuart Pollitt. Yes, two council law is elected here
:50:36. > :50:39.in Oldham Fort UKIP. `` two councillors. Let's talk to Louise
:50:40. > :50:45.balls, a prospective MEP for UKIP, hoping to be elected this evening.
:50:46. > :50:49.Six councillors in the North West ` not exactly a landslide. I think
:50:50. > :50:53.it's a really fantastic result, the result that we needed to break
:50:54. > :50:57.through in this region. What's really interesting is that the
:50:58. > :51:00.places we've been successful, we've had really strong branches,
:51:01. > :51:04.infrastructure, and what it shows is that where we have those really
:51:05. > :51:09.strong bases, those really great activists, we can be successful and
:51:10. > :51:15.if you vote UKIP, you get UKIP. But nationally you won far more seats
:51:16. > :51:20.elsewhere. The green Harty gained more seats here. We have to look at
:51:21. > :51:26.long`term pictures. What it shows is that way you look at our results, in
:51:27. > :51:29.St Helens, for example, we came second across`the`board. That is an
:51:30. > :51:34.amazing base to build on from a standing start. There are not many
:51:35. > :51:37.parties that can take that kind of percentage of the vote first time
:51:38. > :51:42.round. We've got to look at the long`term picture. What about the
:51:43. > :51:45.type of campaign you rang? We heard reports there about allegations of
:51:46. > :51:50.racist leaflets in Oldham and elsewhere. Have you run an unsavoury
:51:51. > :51:54.campaign? I don't think so at all, no. I think our campaign has been
:51:55. > :51:59.highly professional, our activists have behaved in an exceptional
:52:00. > :52:03.manner and I think, really, when you take into consideration the
:52:04. > :52:08.witchhunt in some parts of the country against us, I think we've
:52:09. > :52:12.behaved admirably. You have rogue people saying all sorts of things
:52:13. > :52:15.amongst your candidates. I think Nigel and Paul Nuttall have been
:52:16. > :52:20.very vocal. We don't have the monopoly on silly people. Where
:52:21. > :52:24.people have stepped out of line and said things that are an acceptable,
:52:25. > :52:29.we've dealt with it quickly, swiftly and, obviously, they will not be
:52:30. > :52:32.members of the party any longer. I will move to you, Professor Ed
:52:33. > :52:38.Russell from Manchester University. How would you assess UKIP's
:52:39. > :52:43.performance? Six councillors in our region is a breakthrough but a very
:52:44. > :52:47.minor one. You have to see UKIP's presence here as a microcosm of
:52:48. > :52:52.what's happening nationally. There are signs of breakthrough, of lots
:52:53. > :52:56.of second places. If they can have a continued presence over the next two
:52:57. > :52:59.years, maybe this is the start of a challenge. But look at the
:53:00. > :53:03.difference in what happened in some of the rural areas, small towns and
:53:04. > :53:09.big cities. No presence in Manchester or Liverpool, and no
:53:10. > :53:14.presence in London for UKIP. There is a different appeal for UKIP. What
:53:15. > :53:18.about the Lib Dems? Disastrous for them but some signs that UKIP are
:53:19. > :53:23.pinching their campaign tactics. The Lib Dems keep worrying about how bad
:53:24. > :53:27.it can go. The only solace for them is that if you look in the sub
:53:28. > :53:33.councils, and some of the wards in some of the seats, you can see that
:53:34. > :53:37.where Lib Dem MPs are incumbent and are standing again in 2015, there
:53:38. > :53:41.may be some shards of light there that they can hold on to. Some of
:53:42. > :53:46.the wards in Stockport, for instance. There may be tiny shards
:53:47. > :53:50.of good news for the Lib Dems. But the picture otherwise is pretty
:53:51. > :53:53.bleak. Look at what happened in Liverpool and Manchester. The
:53:54. > :53:59.interesting thing is that UKIP's model is now a Lib Dem model from
:54:00. > :54:03.the 1980s and 1990s, about building from locally to nationally. Perhaps
:54:04. > :54:08.mellow if you are yellow but pleased if you are purple. Back to you,
:54:09. > :54:12.Aris. Thank you. I fear you are slightly
:54:13. > :54:17.stretching our budget with those muffins!
:54:18. > :54:22.Why is UKIP now the main challenger to Labour in certain areas? I think
:54:23. > :54:26.what we saw there was quite right. We've had the collapse of the Lib
:54:27. > :54:30.Dem vote and people have at a tougher four years and it's
:54:31. > :54:36.perfectly understandable to see a protest vote. Is that all it is?
:54:37. > :54:42.Well, no, look, you should never take people for granted. Always keep
:54:43. > :54:45.listening to them, talking to them. We've had fantastic new Labour
:54:46. > :54:49.councillors elected this week. Many more than UKIP have had elected.
:54:50. > :54:54.Because people have got out and worked and fought for every vote and
:54:55. > :54:59.that's what you have to do. We've had a collapsing Liberal Democrat
:55:00. > :55:04.vote... Allison, Allison, has Labour lost touch with a key part of the
:55:05. > :55:10.white working class vote? I don't think so. Look at the resounding
:55:11. > :55:15.support that there was for Labour in the important cities of Liverpool
:55:16. > :55:18.and Manchester. We are there, constantly talking to people,
:55:19. > :55:23.understanding their needs and trying to protect them from the worst
:55:24. > :55:28.attacks of a Tory`Lib Dem government that has forced the bedroom tax on
:55:29. > :55:33.people... We know all that but UKIP came second in ten out of 16 seats
:55:34. > :55:40.in St Helens, second in 13 seats in Bolton. 25% of the share in Oldham.
:55:41. > :55:44.This is a rising challenge to you. We've got to listen and understand
:55:45. > :55:49.that people have had really tough times and we've got to work out
:55:50. > :55:53.exactly the detail of our policies, so that when we put those policies
:55:54. > :56:03.forward in the general election next year, we're offering people real
:56:04. > :56:10.choice. According to the figures, the UKIP influence has cost you two
:56:11. > :56:15.seats and printed your win in Bolton West. I think it's wrong to just
:56:16. > :56:18.assume that if people don't vote UKIP, they are going to vote
:56:19. > :56:24.Conservative. That's not what the polls say. The important point about
:56:25. > :56:29.UKIP for all of the political parties is that for some, we're seen
:56:30. > :56:34.as too metropolitan, to London focused. And you said it quite
:56:35. > :56:37.correctly, out of touch with what you call the white working class. I
:56:38. > :56:40.heard a statistic at the weekend that the Labour Party has five times
:56:41. > :56:48.more members in Hampstead than Hartlepool. That is not a basis for
:56:49. > :56:52.a national party to continue to make progress. I need to bring marking
:56:53. > :56:57.briefly. You were the only one suitable UKIP on directly with those
:56:58. > :57:01.debates. It didn't work out for you. We do have to recognise, all of us,
:57:02. > :57:05.that we are in an era of four party politics. There was no doubt in my
:57:06. > :57:09.mind that Nigel Farage has could manage to capture the public mood.
:57:10. > :57:13.The other main party leaders, including my own, has not been able
:57:14. > :57:17.to do that. We need to look at why that has happened and have a
:57:18. > :57:21.strategy and a clear plan based on alternative policies as to why
:57:22. > :57:25.that's the wrong direction to go. My own constituency is a great example.
:57:26. > :57:29.For me, the argument about Europe and why we should be in it, is about
:57:30. > :57:33.jobs and the economy. The biggest poison my patch European
:57:34. > :57:38.multinationals. Time for the rest of the week's news
:57:39. > :57:40.now ` here's Steve Saul with 60 Seconds.
:57:41. > :57:43.The Government says it will tighten the rules on day release after two
:57:44. > :57:48.prisoners went on the run from Merseyside. The pair including
:57:49. > :57:51.convicted killer Arnold Pickering, who had absconded twice before.
:57:52. > :57:55.More than 600 households in the North West are at risk of losing
:57:56. > :57:58.their homes through eviction or repossession, according to Shelter.
:57:59. > :58:03.The charity says people in Salford are most at risk.
:58:04. > :58:07.Lancashire County Council is to consider applications for two more
:58:08. > :58:10.sites for shale gas exploration. Cuadrilla wants to drill at Roseacre
:58:11. > :58:20.Wood near Elswick and at Little Plumpton on Fylde.
:58:21. > :58:23.Birkenhead MP Frank Field has called for a compromise over plans for a
:58:24. > :58:27.riverside warehouse at Monks Ferry. Boat operators say it will block
:58:28. > :59:02.their slipway. If we have passengers that are out with us, we really
:59:03. > :59:04.There is a special programme from 11:35pm on BBC One tonight. Thanks
:59:05. > :59:08.to my guests. Thank you for coming in. For now, I'll hand you back
:59:09. > :59:12.benefits system to make it contributory. Thank you. With that,
:59:13. > :00:38.back to you, Andrew. the very moment when our sacrifices
:00:39. > :00:48.are beginning to gain traction, we turn in on ourselves. The question
:00:49. > :00:52.is, can the Liberal Democrats hack being in government? If we were to
:00:53. > :00:59.take this step, the anther would be no, and that would damage the party
:01:00. > :01:04.forever. It is clearly a problem, you have had to come out and defend
:01:05. > :01:09.Nick Clegg, we have not even had the European election results yet. It
:01:10. > :01:14.could get even worse by midnight. I have been up here anyway, to argue
:01:15. > :01:22.the party's case in the context of tonight. Let me try to put this in
:01:23. > :01:30.scale. We have a website which people can join to show their ascent
:01:31. > :01:33.to the fact that they like cake, it is called Liberal Democrats like
:01:34. > :01:39.cake, it has more people signed up than this website that is calling
:01:40. > :01:45.for a leadership election. Something like 200, of course this happens
:01:46. > :01:51.from time to time, the wonder is you are talking -- you are taking it
:01:52. > :01:56.seriously. Your colleagues are taking it seriously, including
:01:57. > :02:01.sitting MPs. People trot out a list of achievements that the party would
:02:02. > :02:07.like to be associated with, he began doing just that, but you have been
:02:08. > :02:11.doing that for months, if not for over a year, your ratings in the
:02:12. > :02:15.polls are terrible, you had a terrible local election, and you
:02:16. > :02:20.will probably have a terrible European election. It will cut
:02:21. > :02:24.through much better in the context of an election, we have been talking
:02:25. > :02:30.about the European elections. We have been here a long time, let me
:02:31. > :02:36.take you back, we have had tough times, in 1989, we came last in
:02:37. > :02:42.every constituency in Britain, save one, behind the Green party. One or
:02:43. > :02:49.two voices said, you have got to ditch the leader, me, you had one of
:02:50. > :02:54.them on earlier, John Hemmings, as I recall. One or two said we had to
:02:55. > :02:58.change course, but we stood our ground, and in the general election
:02:59. > :03:04.we not only re-established our position from a base of almost
:03:05. > :03:09.nothing, we laid the basis and foundation for doubling our seats in
:03:10. > :03:15.1997. That is what the party can do, they have a great message, and
:03:16. > :03:22.insert of wasting the summer and autumn on a leadership contest, we
:03:23. > :03:26.should be doing that. Nick Clegg had two opportunities to put part of
:03:27. > :03:33.that message across in the debate over Europe, but the party poll
:03:34. > :03:39.ratings fell after that. What Nick elected us to try to fill a vacuum
:03:40. > :03:49.of antique European rhetoric. And he lost. He could not change the best
:03:50. > :03:52.part of a generation of anti-European propaganda in a couple
:03:53. > :03:58.of performances? He lost the second debate more than the first. It is a
:03:59. > :04:05.long-term programme. Nick Clegg had the courage to take us into
:04:06. > :04:12.government. He took that decision before the party and gained 75, 80%
:04:13. > :04:19.support in a democratic vote. He has led the party with outstanding
:04:20. > :04:23.judgement. He has showed almost incredible grace under fire, being
:04:24. > :04:27.attacked from all sides, because some people hate the coalition, and
:04:28. > :04:31.he has the courage to do what no other Liberal Democrat leader has
:04:32. > :04:37.done, to stand up before the British people and say unequivocally, we are
:04:38. > :04:43.in favour of Europe. He is a man of courage, integrity, decency, he is
:04:44. > :04:48.one of the best prime ministers Britain has not got. In the context
:04:49. > :04:53.of a general election, that will go through. I am devoted to the man, he
:04:54. > :04:59.can do amazingly well in the general election. But he is losing local
:05:00. > :05:03.elections again and again, the European elections, and he is on
:05:04. > :05:08.track to lose the general election. European elections are not easy for
:05:09. > :05:18.us. Whatever happens tomorrow morning, it will not be bad -- as
:05:19. > :05:23.bad as 1989. We have had that line. In the context of a general
:05:24. > :05:26.election, we fought our way back, this time, we have been in
:05:27. > :05:31.government, we start from a higher base, we have a message to tell
:05:32. > :05:34.about how we alone have taken the tough decisions to get this country
:05:35. > :05:39.out of the worst economic mess it has ever seen, left to us by the
:05:40. > :05:44.Labour Party. We can go out in the context of a general election and
:05:45. > :05:47.fight for that. My guess is that the resurgence of the party in the
:05:48. > :05:57.context of a general election will be far greater than you are
:05:58. > :06:03.suggesting. We have done the Liberal Democrats,
:06:04. > :06:08.that move onto the other parties. How bad a leadership problem does Ed
:06:09. > :06:13.Miliband have? He has a continuation of a problem he has had for a long
:06:14. > :06:16.time. The Labour Party thought they had a soft lead, and they have the
:06:17. > :06:20.same situation, everybody is hanging on. They have to make a
:06:21. > :06:28.breakthrough. The big thing is that lots of people at Shadow Cabinet
:06:29. > :06:30.wish they had taken on UKIP, why was Labour turning its fire on the
:06:31. > :06:36.Liberal Democrats? They should have been taking on UKIP, and UKIP taken
:06:37. > :06:43.seats from them, such as in Rotherham. They have finally woken
:06:44. > :06:46.up. I think there is a class war breaking out, the northerners have
:06:47. > :06:54.taken against Ed Miliband and the Metropolitan sophisticates around
:06:55. > :06:59.them... One Labour MP has said, we do not want these guacamole eating
:07:00. > :07:07.people from North London! A number doing that. They wanted to take the
:07:08. > :07:13.fight to UKIP, because UKIP is getting working-class, Northern
:07:14. > :07:16.Labour votes. John Mann said it was ridiculous that the Labour Party did
:07:17. > :07:20.not put posters in the North of England to say that Nigel Farage
:07:21. > :07:27.regarded Margaret Thatcher as his heroine. But in a funny way, those
:07:28. > :07:31.Northern Labour MPs are speaking for the South, because the Labour Party
:07:32. > :07:35.will only win the general election if it takes back those seats in the
:07:36. > :07:39.south, the south-east, a couple of seats in the south-west that Tony
:07:40. > :07:45.Blair in 1997, and they acknowledge that. It is important to say they
:07:46. > :07:53.did win the local elections, they got 31%, but that was only to bustle
:07:54. > :07:59.-- two points hang-up the Conservatives. Neil Kinnock got 38%
:08:00. > :08:03.in 1991, the year before John Major got the largest in of votes ever.
:08:04. > :08:09.There is unease in the shadow cabinet about why Ed Miliband did
:08:10. > :08:14.not take on UKIP on immigration earlier. But Ed Miliband says, we
:08:15. > :08:19.should not be calling UKIP names, we should be calling them out, and he
:08:20. > :08:22.would say he did call them out. The unease in the party has made the
:08:23. > :08:29.results worse for them than they should have been, they did pretty
:08:30. > :08:32.well on Thursday. Although UKIP took votes from them in safe seats, in
:08:33. > :08:40.the end, it will not make much difference. UKIP is taking votes
:08:41. > :08:45.from Tories in marginals. It made it appear that Labour have not done
:08:46. > :08:50.well. Diane Abbott was right, a lot of the Labour MPs who came out on
:08:51. > :08:54.Friday morning had been practising their lines in expectation of a
:08:55. > :08:59.disappointing result. In the north, I do not think UKIP's status of the
:09:00. > :09:03.main nonlabour right-wing party will damage Labour. If you have a
:09:04. > :09:10.majority of 25,000... But in the South and Midlands, UKIP could break
:09:11. > :09:15.the non-Tory vote in such a way as to cost Labour marginal seats that
:09:16. > :09:23.they would otherwise win. As for the Tories, look back at 2009, UKIP 116
:09:24. > :09:27.or 17% of the popular vote in the European elections and fell to 3% in
:09:28. > :09:35.the general election. You mentioned Europe, the Tories are anticipating
:09:36. > :09:39.finishing third, they did not do well on Thursday, they seem to be
:09:40. > :09:46.putting everything on Europe, we will beat UKIP in Newark. That is
:09:47. > :09:51.the line I am getting from them. The Liberal Democrats and Labour are
:09:52. > :09:57.nowhere there, they both got 20% of the vote, the Tories got 53%, a
:09:58. > :10:00.majority of 16,000. UKIP do not need to do well to have an enormous
:10:01. > :10:07.increase on last time. This seed is a referendum on Tories against UKIP,
:10:08. > :10:14.which we have not seen so far. I was there for the rocky road packed.
:10:15. > :10:21.David Cameron gave a piece of rocky road to Boris Johnson, saying, you
:10:22. > :10:28.know you want it, Boris. The Tories must be a head, because at the
:10:29. > :10:35.bakery stores, the blue buns outsold the UKIP buns.
:10:36. > :10:39.Ed Miliband bit off more than he could chew when he turned launch
:10:40. > :10:40.into a budgeted last week, but he is not the first politician to make a
:10:41. > :11:35.meal of it. I love a hot pasty, the choice was
:11:36. > :11:43.to have a small one or a large one, and I opted for the large one, and
:11:44. > :11:46.very good it was, too. The significance of the Ed Miliband
:11:47. > :11:53.business is more about the media, we can amplify nothingness, but because
:11:54. > :11:58.the narrative is that Ed Miliband is accident prone, even eating a big
:11:59. > :12:02.concern which becomes an accident. He is deemed to be weird, so we find
:12:03. > :12:08.pictures that support the conclusion. It is a class issue, you
:12:09. > :12:15.reveal your social class by what you eat, what supermarket you go to. You
:12:16. > :12:20.can play somebody accurately. Politicians are largely of a
:12:21. > :12:24.different class from the voters, and as soon as you ask them about food,
:12:25. > :12:28.it becomes apparent. To thine own self be true, David Cameron
:12:29. > :12:34.pretending he was interested in Cornish pasties, he does the cooking
:12:35. > :12:39.at the weekend, lots of posh food, do not pretend to be something you
:12:40. > :12:44.are not. The problem for Ed Miliband with that picture, he has some
:12:45. > :12:49.abnormal people working for him, but what he does not have is a broadcast
:12:50. > :12:53.person who can spot those pictures. George Osborne hired Theo Rogers
:12:54. > :13:00.from the BBC, she has transformed... She may have been
:13:01. > :13:05.guilty of the burger, but she has transformed his image on TV. That is
:13:06. > :13:09.what Ed Miliband needs. You are correct, it Ed Miliband was 15
:13:10. > :13:14.points ahead in the polls, screwing up the eating of a bacon sandwich
:13:15. > :13:20.would be seen as an endearing trait. We might not have even noticed it.
:13:21. > :13:23.That is all this week, you can get those European election results with
:13:24. > :13:29.David Dimbleby on vote went to 14 from 9pm on the BBC News Channel,
:13:30. > :13:35.and from 11pm on BBC One. No programme next week, but we are back
:13:36. > :14:12.in two weeks. If it is Sunday, it is the Sunday Politics.
:14:13. > :14:15.This week, Britain has voted for its Members of the European Parliament.
:14:16. > :14:20.What will the result tell us about the political mood here in Britain