:00:36. > :00:42.Well, this is the closest I'll get to Rio.
:00:43. > :00:47.The advance of the Islamist army on Baghdad has been slowed.
:00:48. > :00:49.The Iraqi army claims the fightback has begun.
:00:50. > :00:51.But the country now faces a de facto partition.
:00:52. > :00:54.What should Britain, Europe, or the US be doing - if anything?
:00:55. > :00:57.It's been a big week in the Scottish referendum.
:00:58. > :01:01.But has the tone of the debate become too downright nasty?
:01:02. > :01:09.Both sides join us to go head to head.
:01:10. > :01:12.I will swap Ed Miliband for Tim Farren. What is the significance of
:01:13. > :01:14.that? And as World Cup sticker fever grips
:01:15. > :01:20.even Westminster, we'll be asking In the North West Preston's City
:01:21. > :01:22.Deal and the International Festival Fighting on `
:01:23. > :01:30.why this Henry Cooper is facing In London, why the minority vote one
:01:31. > :01:31.recent elections Labour, but recent support amongst people is bigger
:01:32. > :01:42.than assumed. The Sunni Islamist army known
:01:43. > :01:45.as ISIS is now in control of huge swathes of northern
:01:46. > :01:47.and western Iraq, including Until the weekend they looked
:01:48. > :01:51.like advancing relentlessly on Baghdad but that offensive has
:01:52. > :01:53.now been slowed or even halted The Iraqi army
:01:54. > :01:58.and its Shia milita allies vow that Baghdad will not be taken and that
:01:59. > :02:05.a counter-attack will soon begin. Iraq's Shia Prime Minister Nouri
:02:06. > :02:07.al-Maliki has to do something to reverse the humiliation
:02:08. > :02:09.of recent days, which saw his US-trained and equipped Iraqi
:02:10. > :02:15.army, which outnumbered the Islamists 15 to 1 melt away or
:02:16. > :02:18.surrender when confronted by ISIS. The conflict has already created a
:02:19. > :02:21.humanitarian crisis, with hundreds The Kurds have used the conflict to
:02:22. > :02:31.consolidate their hold on their autonomous area in the north, parts
:02:32. > :02:35.of the west and the north are in the grip of ISIS control and the Shias
:02:36. > :02:38.are hunkering down in the east. All of which makes a three-way
:02:39. > :02:40.partition a real possibility with The US is moving another
:02:41. > :02:45.of its massive aircraft carrier battlefleets to the Gulf,
:02:46. > :02:47.though the White House shows no While Iran says it's ready to help
:02:48. > :02:52.its Shia allies and there are unconfoirmed reports
:02:53. > :02:54.that its revolutionary guard has Well, I'm joined now by Newsnight's
:02:55. > :03:13.diplomatic editor Mark Urban. Let's start with some basics. Who
:03:14. > :03:20.are ISIS and why are they controlling big chunks of Iraq? ISIS
:03:21. > :03:24.is an extremist militant jihad organisation and they have a pure
:03:25. > :03:28.Islamic concept based on 14th century history and jurisprudence.
:03:29. > :03:35.What they want to do is correct -- create this caliphate that do not
:03:36. > :03:38.recognise colonial boundaries so it involves Syria and Iraq, and they
:03:39. > :03:41.could go down to Lebanon and Palestine, that is all fair game as
:03:42. > :03:46.far as they are concerned. And they have this strict interpretation of
:03:47. > :03:52.Islam. The more interesting question is why have semi-Sunni Muslims,
:03:53. > :03:56.along with them, these are precisely the sort of people who in 2006,
:03:57. > :04:01.2007, tribal leaders in the west of the country rose up against. It was
:04:02. > :04:06.called the Awakening and the Americans in power did and
:04:07. > :04:11.bankrolled it. These people turned against them and admired them in
:04:12. > :04:14.large numbers, so why do they have so many Sunni Muslims on their
:04:15. > :04:17.side? We hear about people going back to Mosul. I think the answer is
:04:18. > :04:20.a perception back to Mosul. I think the answer
:04:21. > :04:24.that the current government is ruling in sectarian interests, Shia
:04:25. > :04:27.Muslim interest, and the Sunni Muslims want self-determination and
:04:28. > :04:31.this is their best bet. Muslims want self-determination and
:04:32. > :04:34.this is their Let me put up this map to find out where we are going. We
:04:35. > :04:39.can see Mosul in the north, they took that, and then they started,
:04:40. > :04:48.South, reports that the crit was involved -- to grit -- to grit. What
:04:49. > :04:52.is the situation on the ground now? We are in what you might call a
:04:53. > :05:00.consolidation or strategic pause as American called it in 2003. ISIS are
:05:01. > :05:03.trying to consolidate their power in Mosul, and now they have this major
:05:04. > :05:07.city and they are trying to show they can run the city and get the
:05:08. > :05:11.power going, etc. Their southernmost forces, that is a gorilla army, guys
:05:12. > :05:17.in pick-up trucks. They cannot deal with serious opposition. They would
:05:18. > :05:20.like to get the tanks and other things into action but that could
:05:21. > :05:25.take weeks for them to be able to do it. The government side is that they
:05:26. > :05:29.have counter-attacked, but it will take a little while before these
:05:30. > :05:35.newly raised militia and other task forces, call them what you will can
:05:36. > :05:41.effectively counter-attacked. But that is what will happen in the next
:05:42. > :05:43.week or two. We will see increasingly large and serious
:05:44. > :05:52.government counter-attacked trying to retake those places, and I fear a
:05:53. > :05:59.really difficult, bloody Syrian style street by street battle for
:06:00. > :06:05.some of these urban centres. I would like to have a look at this map
:06:06. > :06:07.because the Kurds, as I mentioned, they are consolidating their
:06:08. > :06:13.position in the autonomous region in the north. The Islamist are taking
:06:14. > :06:19.over huge chunks of the Sunni Muslim West. And of course the Shia Muslim
:06:20. > :06:23.are still dominant in control of Baghdad and in parts of the south
:06:24. > :06:32.and east. Back to me looks like the beginnings of the partition of Iraq.
:06:33. > :06:35.-- back to me. Well, it is, but we have to caveat it in a few ways
:06:36. > :06:41.Firstly, there are millions of people in Iraq, so-called sushi
:06:42. > :06:45.combined families, who do not fit easily into the pattern. Do we see
:06:46. > :06:51.millions of people becoming refugees under this scheme? There would be a
:06:52. > :06:55.lot of human tragedies if people really did try to enforce this type
:06:56. > :07:02.partition. Secondly, there are Sunni Muslim communities in the south of
:07:03. > :07:07.Baghdad, those places, once again, a lot of misery and fighting will
:07:08. > :07:19.occur if people try to enforce a de facto partition. There are still an
:07:20. > :07:24.awakening of forces. They are on the side of the government. We heard
:07:25. > :07:29.about one group in Samarra of Sunni Muslims fighting on the same side.
:07:30. > :07:32.It's a complex picture. They factor, it does look like a partition, and
:07:33. > :07:38.if it goes further in that direction it will. And partition will always
:07:39. > :07:42.be messy because people end up on the wrong side of the lies.
:07:43. > :07:47.Finally, the big thing on that map, Iran, a huge place, a huge border
:07:48. > :07:54.with Shia Muslim Iraq. Iran now becomes a key factor. It is becoming
:07:55. > :07:57.a proxy war for Iran. Yes, when I was in Baghdad a few months ago I
:07:58. > :08:01.did actually see Iranians revolutionary guards in uniform
:08:02. > :08:07.They were protecting a senior Iranians official, so some numbers
:08:08. > :08:12.have been never some time and they are also said to protect the
:08:13. > :08:16.political leaders and -- in his compound. They are there. We think
:08:17. > :08:20.more of them are trying to organise the defence of Baghdad to galvanise
:08:21. > :08:25.the Iraqi army, and they will not allow the Iraqi government to fall.
:08:26. > :08:30.Mark, thank you for marking archive this morning. -- marking our card.
:08:31. > :08:32.Tony Blair took Britain into the Iraq conflict in 2003.
:08:33. > :08:35.He's now, among other things, envoy to the Middle East representing
:08:36. > :08:38.That's the UN, the EU, the US and Russia.
:08:39. > :08:40.This morning he entered the debate about what should be
:08:41. > :08:51.My point is simple. If you left Saddam in place in 2003, when 2 11
:08:52. > :08:57.happened and you have the Arab revolutions going through Tunisia,
:08:58. > :09:02.Libya, Yemen, Bahrain and Egypt and Syria, you would still have had a
:09:03. > :09:05.major problem in Iraq. You can see what happens when you leave the
:09:06. > :09:09.dictator in place, as has happened with Bashar al-Assad. The problem
:09:10. > :09:14.doesn't go away. What I'm trying to say is, we can rerun the debates
:09:15. > :09:18.about 2003, and there are perfectly legitimate points on either side,
:09:19. > :09:21.but where we are in 2014, we have do understand that this is a regional
:09:22. > :09:25.problem, but a problem that will affect us.
:09:26. > :09:27.And I'm joined by the former Foreign Office minister Mark Malloch-Brown,
:09:28. > :09:31.Here in London are James Rubin, he was chief spokesman
:09:32. > :09:33.for the State Department under Bill Clinton, and Bayan Rahman,
:09:34. > :09:46.she represents the Kurdistan Regional government in the UK.
:09:47. > :09:51.Intervened in Iraq, it's a shambles, we don't intervene in Syria, it s a
:09:52. > :09:56.shambles. What lessons should we draw? That is a well framed
:09:57. > :10:00.question, because that is the problem. Tony Blair is half right.
:10:01. > :10:05.Iraq, like Syria, would probably have been a problem even without an
:10:06. > :10:14.intervention. But one wishes someone would tell him
:10:15. > :10:16.intervention. But one wishes someone other direction. The fact is, what
:10:17. > :10:19.has been missing in western politics towards the Middle East throughout
:10:20. > :10:25.both episodes, Syria and Iraq, is a drive to build an inclusive,
:10:26. > :10:30.democratic centre which is secular and nonsectarian. That has been
:10:31. > :10:37.missing amongst the threats of invasion Manon invasion, we have
:10:38. > :10:40.just constantly neglected the diplomatic nation-building
:10:41. > :10:42.dimensional this. I want to come onto what is happening on the
:10:43. > :12:24.ground. onto what is happening on the
:12:25. > :12:29.calling on the international community to help us with that. So
:12:30. > :12:32.we need humanitarian aid? Let's assume we do that in some way, maybe
:12:33. > :12:37.not enough, but what else if anything? I think it is an incumbent
:12:38. > :12:43.on the west and other powers to assist Iraq to get rid of ISIS. I
:12:44. > :12:50.think the Sunni Arab community, some of whom have joined ISIS and may be
:12:51. > :12:57.supported the uprising, have justified complaints against the
:12:58. > :13:00.federal government. But we need the terrorists out of Iraq. That is
:13:01. > :13:04.first and foremost. And what the West can do is not necessarily
:13:05. > :13:07.intervene with boots on the ground, but provide technical assistance,
:13:08. > :13:13.provide intelligence and help the Iraqi army and air force to be more
:13:14. > :13:21.targeted. Can you defend yourselves? In Kurdistan, we can in terms of the
:13:22. > :13:24.disciplined troops. In this situation, I hope they won't be
:13:25. > :13:29.abandoning their post, that is for sure. It is a national cause fires.
:13:30. > :13:35.But we are not armed in the way that the Iraqi army is -- cause for us.
:13:36. > :13:38.We are not armed in the way that ISIS seems to be now they have
:13:39. > :13:42.seized some of the American kit We are not asking for weapons, but we
:13:43. > :13:47.ask for assistance for all of Iraq to deal with the situation. Mark,
:13:48. > :13:52.this is not just an Iraqi problem. This is a regional conflict, and
:13:53. > :13:56.from the Levant on the shores of the Mediterranean, all the way through
:13:57. > :14:03.to the Gulf, the region is gripped with what is essentially a Sunni and
:14:04. > :14:06.Shia Muslim sectarian war. Yes, with the caveats that Mark bourbon made
:14:07. > :14:10.earlier, it's not quite that straightforward, but the basic
:14:11. > :14:15.divide is exactly that -- Mark Urban. People have been looking for
:14:16. > :14:18.this to begin in Lebanon or Jordan and have been taken by surprise
:14:19. > :14:24.although with hindsight I'm not sure why, that it has begun in Iraq
:14:25. > :14:27.instead. At its most extreme, it risks redrawing the 20th century
:14:28. > :14:32.boundaries of the region in a way which would be highly unstable
:14:33. > :14:37.because it would pit a Shia Muslim bloc against the Sunni Muslim bloc
:14:38. > :14:42.and would undo all of the sort of social and economic advance of the
:14:43. > :14:47.last century, so the stakes are suddenly very, very high indeed Are
:14:48. > :14:53.we seeing the redrawing? The lines were drawn secretly, not far from
:14:54. > :14:57.here, about a mile away, and may have survived through thick and
:14:58. > :15:02.thin. They now look pretty fragile. The map is being redrawn. I think it
:15:03. > :15:09.is true that there is a key factor partition going on -- des facto
:15:10. > :15:16.Woodrow Wilson probably gave a bit of a hand to the promotion of the
:15:17. > :15:19.idea of self-determination, and in a way, there is a self determination
:15:20. > :15:23.going on, particularly in the Kurdish region, and perhaps they may
:15:24. > :15:29.end up the big winners in all of this, because they have proceeded
:15:30. > :15:31.with a relatively moderate, reconcilable government. The key
:15:32. > :15:42.thing that the Kurdish region has done. They used to fight the two
:15:43. > :15:47.groups, and now they fight together. What the Sunni Muslims have not done
:15:48. > :15:55.is figure out how to let politics let the side things instead of guns.
:15:56. > :16:02.We need to look clearly and in Syria and Iraq, if there is a Sunni
:16:03. > :16:07.extremist with ISIS that carves out a place for itself, it will be the
:16:08. > :16:12.great irony of the modern era. President Bush said he wanted to go
:16:13. > :16:19.into Iraq to fight terrorism. There was no terrorist. There are now If
:16:20. > :16:26.in Iraq and Syria together thereat a thousand strong Al-Qaeda capability
:16:27. > :16:28.that threatens the region, the West, the world, we are all going to
:16:29. > :16:56.have to do something about it. The danger is that power will
:16:57. > :17:01.spread. This could grow in power. You would not want it on your
:17:02. > :17:04.southern border. Absolutely, we would not. The point we are all
:17:05. > :17:10.making indirectly is that things have changed in Iraq and will never
:17:11. > :17:13.be the same again. Whether Iraq completely disintegrates into three
:17:14. > :17:14.countries, or whether it stays together as one country, but a
:17:15. > :17:18.countries, or whether it stays together as one country, but loose
:17:19. > :17:24.federation, either way, Iraq has changed. It will not go back to what
:17:25. > :17:28.it was. I hope it will change for the better. I think we're at the
:17:29. > :17:36.make or break point for Iraq. Either the political readers -- the
:17:37. > :17:40.political leaders of a right wake up and smell the coffee and put aside
:17:41. > :17:45.their differences or there will be problems. This provides that
:17:46. > :17:51.opportunity, in a very nasty way. If we take it? Yes, and if not, I think
:17:52. > :18:00.this is the end of a rack as we know it. If anything resembling a
:18:01. > :18:05.caliphate emerges, that is very destabilising for the region itself.
:18:06. > :18:09.More so I would suggest than even the Taliban and Al-Qaeda in
:18:10. > :18:17.Afghanistan. At some stage, you have to assume that they will be coming
:18:18. > :18:26.for us. That is correct. This is extremely dangerous. The only way
:18:27. > :18:31.forward is for these political groups to talk to each other and
:18:32. > :18:35.find a compromise that allows the rates of cinemas and minorities in
:18:36. > :18:38.Iraq to be protected within or the rates of cinemas and minorities in
:18:39. > :18:42.Iraq to be protected with an autonomous federal-state. Any
:18:43. > :18:45.support for the government must be premised on that. There is no
:18:46. > :19:02.military solution for this which is in during -- there is no military
:19:03. > :19:07.solution for this. There must be serious political negotiation, not
:19:08. > :19:11.with ISIS, but with Sunni Muslim moderates, to form a more
:19:12. > :19:16.representative government. This is the last chance for Iraq. I think we
:19:17. > :19:19.are all saying that that is going to need to be some major western
:19:20. > :19:25.leadership to make some big decisions here for the future of the
:19:26. > :19:29.region. I am concerned that after Afghanistan and Iraq, my country is
:19:30. > :19:34.quite world-weary, quite world-weary. It does not seem to be
:19:35. > :19:39.giving leadership. Certainly we are not seeing that in Europe. I am
:19:40. > :19:43.deeply concerned that we are not going to take the leadership role
:19:44. > :19:49.that needs to be taken. These are big issues. When Britain and France
:19:50. > :19:52.carved up the Middle East, they were world powers, operating as global
:19:53. > :19:57.powers, and without that global leadership by somebody, this is just
:19:58. > :19:59.going to get worse and worse. I think we will leave it there, thank
:20:00. > :20:04.you very much. The danger is that power will
:20:05. > :20:09.spread. This could grow in power. It is just under 100 days until the
:20:10. > :20:12.referendum on Scottish independence. So, for once,
:20:13. > :20:14.it'll be a long hot-summer But the campaign isn't
:20:15. > :20:19.just getting heated. In places it's also
:20:20. > :20:21.down-right nasty. When Scotland's best-selling author
:20:22. > :20:23.announced she was giving the unionist cause a million pounds
:20:24. > :20:25.this week, she received Independence supporters online,
:20:26. > :20:33.so-called cybernats, called JK Rowling a traitor
:20:34. > :20:36.and much worse, using a variety of For its part, the Better Together
:20:37. > :20:39.campaign has been accused Even Gordon Brown seems to think so,
:20:40. > :20:43.and this week he criticised Conservative ministers
:20:44. > :20:45.for relying on "threats With the Edinburgh Festival
:20:46. > :20:50.approaching, reports suggest even comedians are now reluctant to
:20:51. > :20:53.engage in the subject because I'm joined by Blair Jenkins from
:20:54. > :20:59.Yes Scotland and Jackie Baillie They're both in our Glasgow studio,
:21:00. > :21:19.and they're going head to head. Blair Jenkins, let me come to you
:21:20. > :21:23.first. Why have you and the Better Together campaign and Alex Salmond
:21:24. > :21:27.not done more to slap down the cyber nationalists who are poisoning the
:21:28. > :21:33.debate? Good morning. I think both sides tried to stop the tiny number
:21:34. > :21:37.of people on both sides who are incapable of controlling
:21:38. > :21:42.themselves. We should not get this out of proportion. We are having a
:21:43. > :21:45.fantastic, decent and democratic debate. The people who probably
:21:46. > :21:49.total no more than 100 on both sides who post offensive material or not
:21:50. > :21:54.to be allowed to deflect from that fact. Of course there are nasty
:21:55. > :21:58.people on the Better Together side as well, but are you saying there
:21:59. > :22:04.are as many of those as the cyber nationalists? I have not done the
:22:05. > :22:09.Kent. Lots of people are certainly posting nasty in defensive things to
:22:10. > :22:14.people in the yes campaigners well. I imagine that people do what I do,
:22:15. > :22:21.and block them. You stop them from sending anything further. There is a
:22:22. > :22:25.democratic and in gauging progress going on throughout Scotland. It is
:22:26. > :22:28.characterised by good humour and good debate. We should not get out
:22:29. > :22:35.of proportion and the activities of the number of people. I want to get
:22:36. > :22:38.to Jackie Baillie. The debate is actually pretty good-humoured and
:22:39. > :22:42.you should be doing more about the nasties on your side as well? I
:22:43. > :22:47.think we have reached a new low this week. Despite many people engaging
:22:48. > :22:53.in the politics of the decision and the debate about that, whether we
:22:54. > :22:57.want to retain the best of both worlds are separate from the United
:22:58. > :23:04.Kingdom, what we have seen is the most abusive and vitriolic attack,
:23:05. > :23:09.particularly on women, JK Rowling and a Labour supporter who dared to
:23:10. > :23:14.support the no campaign. When you look at the number of people on
:23:15. > :23:19.social media, there are more from the yes campaign than the no site.
:23:20. > :23:27.We should all be condemning attacks, from whatever quarter they come
:23:28. > :23:31.This seemed to be connected to the office of the First Minister. What
:23:32. > :23:37.is the evidence for that? There was an e-mail from one of the... I
:23:38. > :23:46.understand about that, but it did not use vile words. It did not, but
:23:47. > :23:50.it repeated the same mistake as on the website. We should be clear that
:23:51. > :23:55.we need to condemn these attacks, but it is not just the water works,
:23:56. > :24:00.it is taking action. There was an IpsosMORI poll this week which was
:24:01. > :24:04.varying testing. It showed the population as a whole, farmer people
:24:05. > :24:09.think that Yes Scotland is running an effective campaign as against
:24:10. > :24:18.Better Together. It is a undecided voters think this by a majority of
:24:19. > :24:22.four 21. Some people are worried about of the campaign. JK Rowling,
:24:23. > :24:28.Scotland's most successful author of all time. She gives ?1 million to
:24:29. > :24:32.the Better Together campaign. She then faces some of the most
:24:33. > :24:40.incredible abuse. I know what it is like because I have had some myself.
:24:41. > :24:45.Traitor, Quisling. I cannot use some of the words, it is Sunday morning.
:24:46. > :24:49.Why does Scottish Nationalists culture have such a revolting
:24:50. > :24:53.fringe? JK Rowling is entitled to our views and it is unacceptable if
:24:54. > :24:58.people say offensive things about her or anyone else who voices and
:24:59. > :25:02.opinion in this debate. Who are obese people? When you look at the
:25:03. > :25:06.accounts of some of the people who were posting these things about JK
:25:07. > :25:10.Rowling, they were using the same sort of language about film stars
:25:11. > :25:17.and football stars. This was just part of their language on Twitter.
:25:18. > :25:25.How often has Alex Salmond condemned the cyber nationalists? Very often.
:25:26. > :25:28.Everyone in the campaign hands. By common consent, Yes Scotland is
:25:29. > :25:34.running a thoroughly positive campaign, much more positive than
:25:35. > :25:39.Better Together. Jackie Baillie it hardly helps matters when Alistair
:25:40. > :25:42.Darling, who runs your campaign compares Alex Salmond to Kim Jong Il
:25:43. > :25:48.and North Korea. That hardly elevates the debate? I think we need
:25:49. > :25:55.to elevate the debate. There are less than a hundred days to go. It
:25:56. > :26:02.is a massive decision. We need to elevate the debate beyond attacks. I
:26:03. > :26:07.think there is much more that Yes Scotland and the SNP can do. You
:26:08. > :26:13.have made that point. Why are you running a campaign based on fear?
:26:14. > :26:20.The codename of your campaign is even project fear. It is threats.
:26:21. > :26:24.You cannot have the pound, there will be no shipbuilding. You will be
:26:25. > :26:30.flooded by immigrants. Why are you so negative? I am not negative at
:26:31. > :26:34.all and neither is the campaign The campaign has asked questions and I
:26:35. > :26:38.think it is legitimate to ask questions of the people proposing
:26:39. > :26:43.such a fundamental change. People care about the economy, their jobs,
:26:44. > :26:49.their families. What would happen to them if they leave the rest of the
:26:50. > :26:51.United Kingdom. I think it is legitimate to ask questions. I
:26:52. > :26:59.refuse to be asked of scaremongering. People deserve
:27:00. > :27:06.answers. The yes campaign is equally guilty of some of the most
:27:07. > :27:12.outrageous scaremongering. Maybe you are both scaremongering. Blair
:27:13. > :27:16.Jenkins, the First Minister said of the cyber nationalists, that they
:27:17. > :27:22.are just Daft folk, as if they were mischievous little children. It is
:27:23. > :27:28.worse than that. When you look at what they say, they are twisted
:27:29. > :27:32.perhaps even evil minds. I would not disagree with his comments, but they
:27:33. > :27:37.are directed at just a small number of people. The story of this
:27:38. > :27:42.campaign is not the story of what people are saying on Twitter. Around
:27:43. > :27:48.Scotland, lots of people are getting engaged in debate to have been tuned
:27:49. > :27:52.out of the political process. Today, we have 47% support for the yes
:27:53. > :27:57.campaign. The movement in the campaign is towards yes. People know
:27:58. > :28:04.we have a better campaign, a vision for Scotland. The latest poll of
:28:05. > :28:08.polls does not show that. Both sides, you always take the opinion
:28:09. > :28:13.polls that show you in the best light. All politicians do that.
:28:14. > :28:19.Jackie Baillie, your campaign is not just negative, it is patronising.
:28:20. > :28:25.You make dubious claims that Scots would be ?1400 better off by staying
:28:26. > :28:32.in the union, and then you say that the kids use the money to scoff 280
:28:33. > :28:35.hotdogs at the Edinburgh Festival. The fate of the nation is in your
:28:36. > :28:41.hands and that is the best you can do? I think you will find that the
:28:42. > :28:47.campaign is something that we are taking the message to people. Then
:28:48. > :28:55.why are you talking about hotdogs? I do not. The campaign did. We are
:28:56. > :28:59.taking a positive message to people across Scotland about the benefits
:29:00. > :29:03.of the United Kingdom. We believe we are stronger and more secure and
:29:04. > :29:07.more stable, being part of that family of nations that is the United
:29:08. > :29:12.Kingdom. At the same time, we have the strange and power over things
:29:13. > :29:18.like education and transport. I understand that. I am not doing the
:29:19. > :29:23.issues today, I am talking about the tone of the campaign. I have one
:29:24. > :29:30.very important question. Who would you supporting last night in the
:29:31. > :29:34.England-Italy match? I was not watching the game. I would be
:29:35. > :29:38.delighted to see England do well in this tournament. I have Argentina in
:29:39. > :29:42.the office sweepstake. I have to keep some attention on them, but I
:29:43. > :29:48.would be delighted to seeing Clint do well. That is because you think
:29:49. > :29:54.it will help your campaign. It will annoy the Scots. Jackie Baillie I
:29:55. > :30:00.was supporting England. I was also supporting Portugal.
:30:01. > :30:03.Now most of you probably missed last night's football match
:30:04. > :30:06.between England and Italy because you wanted to get an early night and
:30:07. > :30:10.England lost despite a plucky effort, I'm told.
:30:11. > :30:13.But even Westminster is in the grip of World Cup fever
:30:14. > :30:15.and with speculation about the fitness of each political
:30:16. > :30:22.party's team we sent Adam out to tackle some of the big players.
:30:23. > :30:24.Well, this is the closest I'll get to Rio.
:30:25. > :30:38.This year everybody seems to have gone a bit mad Belize, football
:30:39. > :30:45.stickers. Let's see who I will get. Oh, the suspense -- a bit mad for
:30:46. > :30:46.these. George Osborne? That is because we leapt on the bandwagon
:30:47. > :30:49.and made Alan political stickers. They're hotter than a Brazilian
:30:50. > :30:51.barbecue. And at Westminster they're
:30:52. > :31:00.turning into collector?s items. Sunday politics political stickers.
:31:01. > :31:05.We have one of you, Norman. Would you like it? Do you want to start
:31:06. > :31:05.collecting, Bob? Would you like a packet?
:31:06. > :31:16.collecting, Bob? Would you like a Thank you. No album, I've got
:31:17. > :31:24.Michael Gove, next to to Reza, and two of the Prime Minister. -- next
:31:25. > :31:25.to Theresa. I am sure Michael has Theresa in her stick around, and
:31:26. > :31:27.vice versa. These Tory ones are proving very
:31:28. > :31:29.popular since she fell out with him out how
:31:30. > :31:32.to handle extremism in schools. And there's been open speculation
:31:33. > :31:35.about him taking on him in Then there are rumours of a
:31:36. > :31:46.reshuffle of the whole Tory album. Do you think there will be any
:31:47. > :32:41.swapping in the Tory leadership soon? Who knows?
:32:42. > :33:40.Cabinet, the weakness of the polls. been successful. I haven't got Nick
:33:41. > :33:46.Clegg, but I got me. Controversy amongst collectors of Lib Dems. I
:33:47. > :33:47.need to give away me in return for Nick Clegg. That would be far
:33:48. > :33:51.better. There you are. Some local parties are holding
:33:52. > :33:54.meetings about his leadership, but at one in Cambridge this week
:33:55. > :34:06.they voted to stick with him. You have got a Euro Commissioner.
:34:07. > :34:10.Why don't I swap, I will swap Ed Miliband for Tim Farren. Can I do
:34:11. > :34:13.that? What is the significance of that? Very significant. Happy
:34:14. > :34:16.collecting. These beauties are popping up
:34:17. > :34:19.everywhere, but sadly they won't Adam is still doing the samba around
:34:20. > :34:29.Westminster as I speak. I'm joined
:34:30. > :34:31.by three journalists who've been furiously swapping stickers
:34:32. > :34:33.throughout the show, they certainly weren't allowed to stay up to watch
:34:34. > :34:43.the football, it's Nick Watt, We will talk about Labour after the
:34:44. > :34:46.break, and I want to concentrate on the Tories, but the moment, Nick,
:34:47. > :34:55.senior Tories are saying privately that they might win next May. They
:34:56. > :35:00.are beginning to dream the dream. So why are they doing all this
:35:01. > :35:06.jockeying? I think the jockeying for the leadership is about a year old.
:35:07. > :35:12.What stoped it up was when Theresa gave a speech to the conference and
:35:13. > :35:16.people said she was doing it just in case, when things were not looking
:35:17. > :35:20.too good. She is not on manoeuvres. I think it was a policy row that
:35:21. > :35:24.drove the differences with Michael Gove. But Michael Gove is on
:35:25. > :35:27.manoeuvres, and he is trying to protect George Osborne from, he
:35:28. > :35:34.believes, a serious threat from Boris Johnson and possibly Theresa.
:35:35. > :35:37.It is quite self-indulgent when you are a couple of points behind, the
:35:38. > :35:47.economy is going your way, to be involved in this sort of stuff.
:35:48. > :35:53.Extraordinary. It shows the toxic disease that gnaws at the entrails
:35:54. > :35:55.of the Tory party, and Cameron is their great asset. He is more
:35:56. > :36:00.popular than the party, he bridges the gap is, and he has an
:36:01. > :36:04.extraordinary dissemble and some pretending to be this moderate while
:36:05. > :36:07.never the lens -- nevertheless leading the most far right wing
:36:08. > :36:11.government we have had since the war, and that has been a brilliant
:36:12. > :36:13.piece of political Charente and they would be crazy to get rid of it --
:36:14. > :36:16.political Charente. piece of political Charente and they
:36:17. > :36:21.would be crazy to get rid of it -- charades. Does this rumble on? I
:36:22. > :36:25.have an unfashionable view as there aren't half as many leadership plots
:36:26. > :36:29.taking place in Westminster as we assume, and the willingness to read
:36:30. > :36:33.strategic calculation into anything that takes place comes from people
:36:34. > :36:39.watching I Claudius or house of cards. That hasn't been off -- on
:36:40. > :36:46.for years. I needed a reference from your time. I needed something. Maybe
:36:47. > :36:50.brief encounter? It's a stylised view of how politics works, and so
:36:51. > :36:56.much more in life is about randomness and mistakes. Boris
:36:57. > :37:02.Johnson, Theresa May, Michael Gove as George Osborne's man on earth,
:37:03. > :37:05.they are positioning themselves -- Janan wrote an eloquent comment this
:37:06. > :37:11.week about this, but there are certain realities that. Michael Gove
:37:12. > :37:15.had that famous dinner with Rupert Murdoch a few weeks ago in which he
:37:16. > :37:20.said that you must not make Boris Johnson leader of the Conservative
:37:21. > :37:23.party, George Osborne is my man Theresa May set out her credo two
:37:24. > :37:27.years ago and people on her team were saying that she was doing it
:37:28. > :37:31.just in case. People are out there and are thinking of the future, but
:37:32. > :37:35.I do think Janan is right. In the village, in the thick of it mindset,
:37:36. > :37:44.you can get a bit carried away and you can be a bit in the famous. That
:37:45. > :37:51.is before your era. He died. What did he mean by it. You can get a bit
:37:52. > :37:54.carried away by it. I will have words with you during the break
:37:55. > :37:56.It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
:37:57. > :37:59.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now
:38:00. > :38:11.Coming up here in 20 minutes, we'll be talking about Ed Miliband's
:38:12. > :38:17.Fighting on ` why Manchester's Henry Cooper is facing
:38:18. > :38:37.95 Labour people on one sidd, you on the other side. How does it feel?
:38:38. > :38:41.And joining me in the ring this week ` the
:38:42. > :38:44.Employment Minister and Conservative MP for Wirral West, Esther LcVey.
:38:45. > :38:46.And the former Environment Linister, the Labour MP for Oldham West
:38:47. > :38:58.We have had this big political row this week centred around Liverpool
:38:59. > :39:09.over Hillsborough. Ed Milib`nd was pictured with a copy of The Sun Was
:39:10. > :39:15.that a mistake? Yes. It would have been better if he had not done it. A
:39:16. > :39:22.coroner 's Court is sitting at this time. A lot of disturbing evidence
:39:23. > :39:30.is coming out regarding the design of the ground, management bx the
:39:31. > :39:37.police. It is exceedingly r`w on Merseyside. 96 people died. He has
:39:38. > :39:45.apologised. He recognises it was a mistake.
:39:46. > :39:46.Well the Mayor of Liverpool Joe Anderson led
:39:47. > :39:49.the outcry, calling the Labour leader's actions "deeply shocking".
:39:50. > :39:51.He also wrote on the Liverpool Labour Party's website:
:39:52. > :39:54."This is just another example of how out of touch the politicians
:39:55. > :39:56.in their ivory towers are from the lives of ordinary people.
:39:57. > :39:59.It begs the question ` were the comments he made
:40:00. > :40:05.after the Hillsborough panel report sincere or just sound bites?"
:40:06. > :40:30.Ed Miliband has apologised. I think it all happened rather quickly. This
:40:31. > :40:37.was about the World Cup in Brazil. If it had been another newspaper no
:40:38. > :40:42.one would have uttered a word. Esther McVey, you are in Merseyside
:40:43. > :40:52.MP. David Cameron was also photographed with The Sun. Should he
:40:53. > :41:07.also apologise West of Mac `` also apologise? It is very sensitive If
:41:08. > :41:12.you are on Merseyside you know how sensitive that issue is. People on
:41:13. > :41:21.Merseyside have not what th`t newspaper since. The Labour Party
:41:22. > :41:28.have always tried to court The Sun. Should David Cameron also
:41:29. > :41:34.apologise? He has not thought so. He does not feel that he needs to. It
:41:35. > :41:41.was the Conservative Ministdr Jeremy Hunt who said that these newspapers
:41:42. > :41:47.should be looked at. It is the Conservative Party that has allowed
:41:48. > :41:56.the inquest to go ahead. Labour went to the other end of the world,
:41:57. > :42:00.literally, to court Rupert Lurdoch. You were supposedly to beathng
:42:01. > :42:16.during the 25th anniversary commemorations. `` tweetimg cheering
:42:17. > :42:24.the 25th anniversary commemorations.
:42:25. > :42:26.Well less controversially Liverpool's International Fdstival
:42:27. > :42:28.for Business opened this wedk, promoting the best
:42:29. > :42:32.And in Preston work's startdd on ?400 million worth of new roads and
:42:33. > :42:36.Our reporter Chris Rider's been asking if the regional economy's
:42:37. > :42:41.Open for business, the backing of the Government
:42:42. > :42:46.The Prime Minister in Liverpool to launch the
:42:47. > :42:51.Part of rebalancing the economy is Westminster politicians givhng far
:42:52. > :42:59.more attention and, where possible, powers to our great cities.
:43:00. > :43:05.The day after, Lord Heseltine pointing in the right direction
:43:06. > :43:08.for Preston City Deal which will see millions of pounds of investment
:43:09. > :43:12.What people have now realisdd in government is that in London
:43:13. > :43:18.They are determined to try and get local people who live
:43:19. > :43:26.in places, work in them, and understand them, to takd bigger
:43:27. > :43:37.I don't think everybody is going to be as excited as Michael Heseltine
:43:38. > :43:39.and some of the people in County Hall.
:43:40. > :43:43.Lots of communities know th`t this is an awful lot of concrete that is
:43:44. > :43:45.being poured on to the countryside for supposed environmental benefits.
:43:46. > :43:48.But many of the businesses who came to County Hall to hear from Lord
:43:49. > :43:51.Heseltine are on board, and he's won praise from his political opponents.
:43:52. > :43:54.To have Lord Heseltine here has been stupendous because he is
:43:55. > :43:56.the father of regeneration projects over many decades.
:43:57. > :44:02.For him to give us the benefit of his advice is amazing.
:44:03. > :44:06.It was back in 1981 when Lord Heseltine came to Liverpool to
:44:07. > :44:09.help regenerate the place in the wake of the Toxteth riots,
:44:10. > :44:13.beginning a long relationshhp with the city which remains todax.
:44:14. > :44:16.And this international event lasting 50 days makes it clear the
:44:17. > :44:26.It is wonderful to have the world's largest business event happdning
:44:27. > :44:33.It is a concrete example of rebalancing Britain.
:44:34. > :44:35.To sit in Liverpool and takd part in the
:44:36. > :44:42.International Festival Of Btsiness and to remember the Liverpool
:44:43. > :44:46.Organisers hope it will provide the catalyst for further investment
:44:47. > :45:08.The Government seems to be trying to boost to the private sector? Is that
:45:09. > :45:14.the right approach? I did not think austerity was the correct approach
:45:15. > :45:16.six years ago. In a recession there is not much private investmdnt. You
:45:17. > :45:23.need public investments to promote growth in the first instancd.
:45:24. > :45:28.Infrastructure, house`buildhng, the foundation of a low carbon dconomy.
:45:29. > :45:38.But it is recovery. After shx years, that is to be welcomdd. The
:45:39. > :45:45.problem is the assurance of sustainability bash will it last? It
:45:46. > :45:53.is too dependent on consumer debt. And the basis of demand, wage levels
:45:54. > :46:04.at 6% down, productivity ond of the worst in OECD, business invdstment
:46:05. > :46:10.still below the pre`trash ldvel it is difficult to see if it is
:46:11. > :46:15.lasting. It is a recovery for the well off, not for the great majority
:46:16. > :46:21.of the population. The numbdr of jobs that are being created are
:46:22. > :46:28.overwhelmingly self`employmdnt. That is not true. We have had ovdr 2
:46:29. > :46:35.million private jobs created. The country was nearly bankrupt. It was
:46:36. > :46:39.the worst recession in history. We had to have proper growth. We had to
:46:40. > :46:48.stabilise the economy. That is what we have done. We have seen no extra
:46:49. > :46:53.people in work. That is now across all sectors, across all parts of the
:46:54. > :46:57.country, and across all ages. Youth unemployment has come down for nine
:46:58. > :47:05.consecutive month. It is 100,00 fewer youth unemployed than in 010.
:47:06. > :47:09.It has been a tough time, btt everybody is now saying we `re the
:47:10. > :47:16.fastest developing countries in the developed world. We are now showing
:47:17. > :47:19.the highest rate of employmdnt in the G7. We are the fastest
:47:20. > :47:26.developing country in the ddveloped world. Whether it is manufacturing,
:47:27. > :47:43.construction, education, agriculture, everybody says that it
:47:44. > :47:48.is. Whoever you care to mention Why is the level of investment 20% below
:47:49. > :47:54.what it was in 2008? People with money do not believe it will last.
:47:55. > :48:02.In Europe you have and the plumbers levels of 50%. It is a lot slower
:48:03. > :48:08.here. You are saying it was tough, it was painful, but it is p`ying
:48:09. > :48:16.off. It will not pay off if we get a brief recovery. It is the longest
:48:17. > :48:22.recession since 1870. The b`sis by which you get demand in futtre are
:48:23. > :48:27.not there. Wage levels are not going up. They are 6% down in real terms.
:48:28. > :48:33.But everybody is looking to the UK now. The key is investment.
:48:34. > :48:37.Investment levels in the prhvate sector are extremely pure. When you
:48:38. > :48:46.see the Government pushing through with things like the City Ddal, that
:48:47. > :48:54.is what they are trying to do. I am sure they are trying. Can I give you
:48:55. > :49:01.an international perspectivd on this? People are looking to how the
:49:02. > :49:04.UK has managed to do this. @merica, Europe and Canada is looking. We
:49:05. > :49:08.have got the fastest rate of employment in the G7. We ard now the
:49:09. > :49:14.fastest developing economy hn the developed world. Look at our
:49:15. > :49:17.exports. We have got car manufacturing a net export rather
:49:18. > :49:28.than a net import. These thhngs were not happening under Labour. Look at
:49:29. > :49:32.the OECD standards. It was tough. Whether it was a financial global
:49:33. > :49:38.crash, or whether it was Labour we have turned the corner. You have
:49:39. > :49:44.mentioned exports. The export situation is a disaster. In every
:49:45. > :49:49.year and your Government exports have been in deficit by ?100 billion
:49:50. > :49:58.per year. It is a disastrous situation. The giant recesshon that
:49:59. > :50:04.started in 2007, look at manufacturing and constructhon,
:50:05. > :50:15.fundamentally things have changed. 1.7 more that `` 1.7 million more
:50:16. > :50:18.people are employed. And employment is 6.6% nationally. It is 6.6%
:50:19. > :50:27.nationally. The 7.6% in this region. All regions are different.
:50:28. > :50:31.In the Southeast and the East Midlands, they are growing `t a
:50:32. > :50:36.faster rate than what we have seen in this region. But more people are
:50:37. > :50:48.employed now than in 2000 and ten. Youth unemployment has falldn. What
:50:49. > :50:53.would Labour do differently? I hope we would promote growth. At the
:50:54. > :51:01.present moment, on a sustainable basis, that is not there. 2.3
:51:02. > :51:10.million people are still Ann Clwyd. That is very high. `` peopld are
:51:11. > :51:15.still out of work. The great majority of new jobs are low paid,
:51:16. > :51:20.insecure, and on zero hours contracts. That is not accurate The
:51:21. > :51:31.majority of the jobs are full`time. Half a century ago, the heavyweight
:51:32. > :51:34.champion of the world, Casshus Clay, was knocked to the canvas bx a left
:51:35. > :51:37.hook from a certain Henry Cooper. Well that Henry Cooper went on to
:51:38. > :51:40.lose, but now a political n`mesake Councillor Henry Cooper is
:51:41. > :51:44.the only politician left ch`llenging They say opposition's
:51:45. > :51:59.a lonely business. Well it is if you're the
:52:00. > :52:05.opposition on Manchester Cotncil. Following last month's council
:52:06. > :52:08.elections Labour now holds 85 of the 96 seats on Manchester council.
:52:09. > :52:14.Henry is the only opposition. By the way even he was elected as ` Labour
:52:15. > :52:22.councillor. Henry, this is why you are now an opposition counchllor.
:52:23. > :52:24.Tell us what happened. Labour councillor for 21 ye`rs up
:52:25. > :52:33.until 2012.I had no alternative but to leave the Labour Party and fight
:52:34. > :52:46.on my own. Then the council backed plans for
:52:47. > :52:49.FC United to build this new Now Henry really is on his own after
:52:50. > :53:42.every Lib Dem opposition cotncillor There seems to be an autonolous
:53:43. > :53:43.regional culture. The grip that Labour have got in metropolhtan
:53:44. > :54:51.areas appears to be total. this impact negatively on the
:54:52. > :54:55.population. But everyday holding to account, that is much harder.
:54:56. > :55:02.The last non`Labour politichan left standing says:
:55:03. > :55:13.Next year possibly 96 Labour. It does not mean they wanted a 1`party
:55:14. > :55:18.state in Manchester. While that prospect exercises opponents, those
:55:19. > :55:29.in charge are relaxed that ht is good for the people of this city.
:55:30. > :55:31.And we're joined from London by Richard Berry from Democrathc Audit,
:55:32. > :55:34.which carries out research hnto the state of British democr`cy.
:55:35. > :55:44.Manchester seems to be well`run What the problem? Some of the
:55:45. > :55:49.comparisons to North Korea `nd China are exaggerated. But there hs a
:55:50. > :55:59.problem. It is bad for democracy when there is only one partx in
:56:00. > :56:06.control. The public needs to see alternative voices in the process.
:56:07. > :56:12.It has been said that the electorate has a choice, and they have chosen
:56:13. > :56:21.Labour. In a sense that is true but the electoral system is called first
:56:22. > :56:25.past the post. That is an artificial system. It produces exagger`ted
:56:26. > :56:30.results for the winning party. Labour did not get 100% of the vote
:56:31. > :56:36.in Manchester, but it has ndarly 100% of the seats on the cotncil.
:56:37. > :56:45.But what problem will you experience in Manchester? Every political party
:56:46. > :56:49.will have choices. There max be a tendency for choices to be lade
:56:50. > :56:53.behind closed doors. Decisions which could be debated in public, in the
:56:54. > :56:58.council chamber, can actually be made by the political group without
:56:59. > :57:03.public scrutiny. What is thd solution to this? The soluthon has
:57:04. > :57:17.to be a more proportional electoral system. There is one in Scotland.
:57:18. > :57:26.That would produce fever resultss. `` that would produce more `ccurate
:57:27. > :57:33.results. Esther McVey, Wirral council is a
:57:34. > :57:54.conservative council, but that does not mean it is better run, but it
:57:55. > :57:59.best `` better run, does it? You need people who can reach ott across
:58:00. > :58:02.the board and see different angles. I do not see that in some areas
:58:03. > :58:15.Could the Government bring `bout reform? What you have got to do
:58:16. > :58:22.which I did in one of my wards, is that we worked harder, we solved the
:58:23. > :58:27.problems of people, and we got extra seats. It is up to us to take
:58:28. > :58:36.responsibility and reflect the views of the people. What do you lake of
:58:37. > :58:38.this more polarised world? Ht shows how unpopular the Conservathves and
:58:39. > :58:45.the Liberal Democrats are in the North. But accountability is
:58:46. > :58:51.extremely important. Where xou get between 90% and 100% of 1`p`rty it
:58:52. > :58:59.becomes a serious issue. Thdre are two ways to deal with it without
:59:00. > :59:05.proportional representation. It is the responsibility of peopld in the
:59:06. > :59:12.governing party to take isste on things they believe the grotp may
:59:13. > :59:18.not be getting right. The lhne between rebellion and sycophancy is
:59:19. > :59:27.a narrow one. And the other way is the media. Where you have openness
:59:28. > :59:37.and transparency, ideally you need the governing group to take account
:59:38. > :59:45.of different views. Make sure everybody goes out to vote.
:59:46. > :59:47.What else has been going on in the region's politics?
:59:48. > :59:52.Local MPs voiced concerns about management at the
:59:53. > :59:55.Morecambe Bay NHS Trust aftdr a second director resigned `head of
:59:56. > :00:09.All the indications are that this does not say favourable things about
:00:10. > :00:14.The reasons behind the decision not to prosecute the former Rochdale MP
:00:15. > :00:17.Cyril Smith over offences against children are to be made public.
:00:18. > :00:19.The CPS's refusal to releasd the files to
:00:20. > :00:21.a newspaper has been overturned by the Information Rights Tribunal.
:00:22. > :00:23.Going underground ` Cheshire East Council is looking
:00:24. > :00:26.for investors into a scheme to use thermal energy to heat homes.
:00:27. > :00:28.Dame Vivienne Westwood was hn Manchester for a debate on fracking.
:00:29. > :00:34.The fashioner designer has previously protested in Sussex
:00:35. > :00:40.and wants more independent research and discussion.
:00:41. > :00:46.It is crucial and yet the ptblic are not informed.
:00:47. > :00:48.And Bootle MP Joe Benton announced that he'll retire
:00:49. > :00:52.His decision comes after thd local Labour Party voted to open tp the
:00:53. > :00:59.Just time to thank my guests ` Esther McVey and Michael Me`cher.
:01:00. > :01:11.For now, I'll hand you back to Andrew Neil in London.
:01:12. > :01:14.There are big changes afoot in the EU following last month's
:01:15. > :01:16.European elections, not least who'll get the top job
:01:17. > :01:20.But behind the scenes the parties have
:01:21. > :01:23.also been jockeying for position as they try to form the big groups that
:01:24. > :01:27.And UKIP seems to have been struggling to keep its influence
:01:28. > :01:36.Here's Adam to explain how it all works.
:01:37. > :01:42.If you want your party to be a big cheese in the European Parliament,
:01:43. > :01:47.you need to form a political group. By doing this, the party gets more
:01:48. > :01:52.money, more positions on committees and even more speaking rights in the
:01:53. > :01:58.chamber. But the parliament's rules are strict. And to form a group you
:01:59. > :02:01.need a group of 25 MPs from at least seven different countries. For UKIP,
:02:02. > :02:07.the number of MEPs will not be a problem because they already have 24
:02:08. > :02:09.of their own, but the different nationalities are more of a
:02:10. > :02:13.challenge. Nigel Farage was not helped by the Tories stealing -
:02:14. > :02:22.stealing his former Danish and Finnish allies, and the pen pinching
:02:23. > :02:27.his Italian charms. Nigel needs a new charm and fast. He has already
:02:28. > :02:33.signed up Lithuania's order and justice, a free citizen from Prague,
:02:34. > :02:40.and the Dutchman from the reformed political party. The big signing was
:02:41. > :02:44.the 17 members of the Italian Beppe Griego's 5-star movement, but it
:02:45. > :02:47.leaves UKIP short of two more international powers, and with the
:02:48. > :02:51.clock ticking, it looks like his hopes resting on the Swedish
:02:52. > :02:52.Democrats and the Polish new right Congress. They both make their
:02:53. > :03:04.decisions next week. What is the latest? UKIP have enough
:03:05. > :03:09.MEPs with their pals, but they need seven countries, as I understand it.
:03:10. > :03:12.They are not there yet. They are wrapped five countries and need
:03:13. > :03:16.another two. UKIP are being quite buoyant and say they will be meeting
:03:17. > :03:20.MEPs from five countries next week and are pretty confident they will
:03:21. > :03:24.get those countries, but as Adam was saying, the problem UKIP have had is
:03:25. > :03:33.that the Conservatives have nicked two of the parties. That is why they
:03:34. > :03:38.have been struggling, but they say they are confident they will do it.
:03:39. > :03:43.Meanwhile, the Tories new best friends are the German Eurosceptic
:03:44. > :03:46.party, which has put Mrs Merkel s nose out of joint, but we don't
:03:47. > :03:53.quite know whether she really cares or not. I think Cameron has played
:03:54. > :04:01.his hand badly since he committed to pulling out of the EBP. And he
:04:02. > :04:07.should be in there with Angela Merkel and if he needs to make a
:04:08. > :04:13.major renegotiation, he needs to have the Germans onside. Instead
:04:14. > :04:17.there is a breakaway party and its like supporting UKIP. His party are
:04:18. > :04:22.supporting her worst enemy. It certainly causing him a lot of
:04:23. > :04:27.problems, and undermines his negotiating position, but isn't
:04:28. > :04:31.there an honesty that the centre-right group is explicitly
:04:32. > :04:36.Federalist, and the Tories are anything but, so they came out, and
:04:37. > :04:42.Labour are in the Socialist group, which is explicitly Federalist, and
:04:43. > :04:45.they are not Federalist either. If you want support and influence in
:04:46. > :04:49.Europe, you have to trade, and he hasn't done this well. The whole
:04:50. > :04:54.business with who will be the next president, he needs Angela Merkel's
:04:55. > :04:59.support. Without that, it won't happen. He should have been trading
:05:00. > :05:06.behind-the-scenes, but he has exposed himself in public, and if he
:05:07. > :05:10.doesn't win it looks uncertain, and he will be in a position where he
:05:11. > :05:13.has to go back to his own party and say they are not getting anywhere.
:05:14. > :05:20.That is dangerous and takes us closer to the Exeter, which I don't
:05:21. > :05:25.think would want. The danger for Mr Cameron is if it is the president of
:05:26. > :05:28.the commission, he will save you cannot stop a federalist becoming
:05:29. > :05:31.head of the European commission what chance do you have of
:05:32. > :05:39.repatriating lots of powers back to London. There are lots of Tory MPs
:05:40. > :05:44.dying to make the argument. My hunch is that he won't make it. There are
:05:45. > :05:46.too many countries opposed to his presidency and even the country
:05:47. > :05:52.notionally in favour of it, Germany, is failing in youth -- enthusiasm.
:05:53. > :05:58.Angela Merkel cannot be seen to give in to the Brits this. Her own side
:05:59. > :06:06.once it as well, though some reason the German media says it. When she
:06:07. > :06:11.tried to reach out and said to look at the other candidates, she got
:06:12. > :06:17.such abuse on the right wing press from her own country and party she
:06:18. > :06:25.had to retreat. Janan is right that there is opposition to Juncker, but
:06:26. > :06:30.as long as Cameron turns it into an argument about Britain and Europe,
:06:31. > :06:37.he will strengthen the hand of Juncker. Angela Merkel thinks
:06:38. > :06:40.Juncker is inappropriate. She did not like the process, which was a
:06:41. > :06:43.power grab by the European Parliament, but when David Cameron
:06:44. > :06:48.went to the council and said that if I don't get my way, we could leave
:06:49. > :06:55.the EU, that led to the backlash, most significantly from the SPD in
:06:56. > :06:59.Germany. As Tony Blair says, if only David Cameron had made the argument
:07:00. > :07:01.that Juncker is bad for Europe, then he would have found his natural
:07:02. > :07:06.allies would have felt more comfortable following behind. Enough
:07:07. > :07:15.Europe. I want to show you a picture. See what you think of this.
:07:16. > :07:22.When I saw that picture, I thought it was so ludicrous that it had to
:07:23. > :07:25.have been photo shop. Discuss. He is holding it with a certain disdain,
:07:26. > :07:30.looking a bit hangdog. A disastrous picture for Ed Miliband. His
:07:31. > :07:36.strength is authenticity, sincerity and cleverness. And he blows all of
:07:37. > :07:41.that. He was the one who took on Murdoch, very bravely and
:07:42. > :07:46.dangerously, and one, really. Now there he is supporting Murdoch's
:07:47. > :07:49.son. It's a big mistake, not just in Liverpool, where obviously they are
:07:50. > :07:55.particularly incensed. And then he apologises. Sort of apologises and
:07:56. > :08:01.understands why Liverpool feels upset. But it is a fundamental error
:08:02. > :08:04.and I hope he learns from this, that he must absolutely stay true to
:08:05. > :08:11.himself. That's all he's got going for him. Who do we blame? His
:08:12. > :08:20.advisers or himself? In the end himself. Nobody forced him to do it.
:08:21. > :08:28.On this one, he called it wrong It's a sign of the rather the bridal
:08:29. > :08:31.state of the Labour Party is that his candidates were vocal in
:08:32. > :08:38.attacking him doing this. It's a sign of how readable Ed Miliband is
:08:39. > :08:44.at Parliamentary level. I don't think you should have apologised.
:08:45. > :08:52.The mistake he made was associating himself with that newspaper. The
:08:53. > :08:58.mistake was the prior three years when he went too far as portraying
:08:59. > :09:01.the Murdoch empire beyond the pale. He made a case against phone hacking
:09:02. > :09:06.and offences in that regard without going as far as he did with the
:09:07. > :09:10.rhetoric. To do that, and then pose with the Sun newspaper, the
:09:11. > :09:16.juxtaposition is what did for him, not the mere fact of posing with it.
:09:17. > :09:18.Maybe he did not know what he was doing because we were told he
:09:19. > :09:21.doesn't read the British newspapers. It was football, and he
:09:22. > :09:28.has posed with the Sun newspaper before. Mr Cameron and Mr Clegg
:09:29. > :09:32.posed as well. But with the Sun newspaper and football, you tread
:09:33. > :09:35.carefully. That was the mistake You get the impression from the picture
:09:36. > :09:38.that he looks so uncomfortable that you wonder whether there was a full
:09:39. > :09:43.process of consultation that went on within his media operation, within
:09:44. > :09:46.his political operation. Was he fully aware of what would happen
:09:47. > :09:49.question what he looks so incredibly uncomfortable. But at the end of the
:09:50. > :09:55.day, leaders have to take responsibility. It is cultural as
:09:56. > :09:59.well. That picture says, I am down there with the football blokes and
:10:00. > :10:03.you think, you are not. That is not what people will vote for. Be
:10:04. > :10:07.yourself and don't pretend to be something else because it never
:10:08. > :10:12.works. But the polls suggest that the British voters don't yet see Ed
:10:13. > :10:16.Miliband as prime ministerial. The worst thing you can then do is get
:10:17. > :10:21.involved in stunts that are more likely to reinforce that idea than
:10:22. > :10:24.counter it. There was a precedent for it in the last parliament which
:10:25. > :10:30.was Gordon Brown's attempts to feign a populist touch. He did it by
:10:31. > :10:37.telling the contents of his iPod. The Arctic monkeys. It always jarred
:10:38. > :10:40.because he was trying too hard. Not uniquely guilty of, Ed Miliband all
:10:41. > :10:45.the other leaders have done it. At the moment he more vulnerable. Yes,
:10:46. > :10:50.and he is less popular than his party. Labour has quite a popular
:10:51. > :10:54.brand, in a resilient way, in a way they don't with the Tories, yet
:10:55. > :10:59.their leader is a personal problem. The pressure is on him to do stunts
:11:00. > :11:04.like this. Will there be a shadow cabinet reshuffle? Yes, we have to
:11:05. > :11:06.get the cabinet reshuffle out of the way first, and that might come next
:11:07. > :11:10.week, maybe by the time of the summer recess, but the first thing
:11:11. > :11:16.that the prime Minister do is work out who is the UK candidate for the
:11:17. > :11:20.European Commissioner. Is it not the case probably that Ed Balls is
:11:21. > :11:25.becoming semi-detached from the Ed Miliband project? I don't think
:11:26. > :11:29.entirely. Nothing gets agreed without both of the end are green.
:11:30. > :11:34.Ed Balls is controversial. He has great pluses and minuses and is a
:11:35. > :11:38.big figure. Labour doesn't have that many big figures. It's quite hard to
:11:39. > :11:41.think who would be a heavy hitter as a possible Chancellor. He is a
:11:42. > :11:49.convincing chancellor to the future, Love him. He has the heft -- love
:11:50. > :11:53.him or hate him. Any possibility Ed Balls could be moved as shadow
:11:54. > :11:56.chancellor? The timing is convenient because the Scottish referendum ends
:11:57. > :12:01.in the autumn and Alistair Darling becomes a free man, win or lose I
:12:02. > :12:04.don't think Ed Balls will be removed because moving him would be an
:12:05. > :12:06.admission that everything the Labour Party said about the economy to the
:12:07. > :12:10.preceding four years has been a mistake. And you can't do that nine
:12:11. > :12:15.months before a general election. You invite ridicule. But relations
:12:16. > :12:19.between Ed Miliband and Ed Balls are not great at the moment. The Ed
:12:20. > :12:22.Miliband team are very, very suspicious of this new love in
:12:23. > :12:28.between Ed Balls and Peter Mandelson. Mandelson likes to say
:12:29. > :12:31.that he spotted the Ed Balls talents in the original place and appointed
:12:32. > :12:36.him to the Gordon Brown team after the disaster of 1992. But things
:12:37. > :12:42.obviously went awry, and now Ed Balls and Peter Mandelson Avenue
:12:43. > :12:47.Rappaport, and that is with enormous suspicion -- they have a new
:12:48. > :12:50.Rappaport. With good reason because it's about policy. It's about the
:12:51. > :12:55.attitude towards business. Should they be out there saying they will
:12:56. > :13:00.get the tax dodgers, Starbucks, Vodafone, are we going to take on
:13:01. > :13:03.business in a big way? In a way that Ed Miliband has quite bravely said.
:13:04. > :13:08.On the other hand, Ed Balls and Peter Mandelson are saying, hang on,
:13:09. > :13:09.we only won in 1997 by being business friendly. Sorry to rush
:13:10. > :13:11.you. We are running out of time The Daily Politics will be back
:13:12. > :13:16.every day this week at midday, and I'll be back here next Sunday
:13:17. > :13:18.when I'll be joined by the shadow work and pensions
:13:19. > :13:21.secretary Rachel Reeves.Remember if it's Sunday,
:13:22. > :13:52.it's the Sunday Politics. Magnificent. The power base
:13:53. > :13:58.of medieval England. Charles' ceiling was a piece
:13:59. > :14:05.of breathtaking arrogance.