:00:37. > :00:43.Welfare reform is one of the government's most popular policies.
:00:44. > :00:46.So Labour says it would be even tougher than the Tories.
:00:47. > :00:50.We'll be asking the Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary if she's got
:00:51. > :00:56.Even Labour supporters worry that Ed Miliband hasn't got what it takes
:00:57. > :01:01.Labour grandees are increasingly vocal about their concerns.
:01:02. > :01:12.Over 50% of Labour voters think they'd do better with a new leader.
:01:13. > :01:16.And what of this leader? He's apparently "toxic" on the doorstep.
:01:17. > :01:19.The polls say Nick Clegg's more unpopular than Gordon Brown,
:01:20. > :01:26.And coming in The Sunday Politics in the North West...
:01:27. > :01:28.We are in Liverpool for the International Festival
:01:29. > :01:40.promised an electric car revolution, why so little progress?
:01:41. > :01:47.Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh, the toxic tweeters
:01:48. > :01:55.First, the deepening crisis in Iraq, where Sunni Islamists are now
:01:56. > :01:58.largely in control of the Syrian-Iraq border, which means
:01:59. > :02:04.they can now re-supply their forces in Iraq from their Syrian bases
:02:05. > :02:06.Rather than moving on Baghdad, they are for the moment consolidating
:02:07. > :02:09.their grip on the towns and cities they've already taken.
:02:10. > :02:11.They also seem to be in effective control of Iraq's
:02:12. > :02:15.biggest oil refinery, which supplies the capital.
:02:16. > :02:18.And there are reports they might now have taken the power
:02:19. > :02:24.Iraqi politicians are now admitting that ISIS,
:02:25. > :02:27.the name of the Sunni insurgents, is better trained, better equipped and
:02:28. > :02:33.far more battle-hardened than the US-trained Iraqi army fighting it.
:02:34. > :02:35.Which leaves the fate of Baghdad increasingly in the hands
:02:36. > :02:53.No good news coming out of there, Janan. No good news and no good
:02:54. > :02:57.options either. The West's best strategy is to decide how much
:02:58. > :03:02.support to give to the Iraqi government. The US is sending over
:03:03. > :03:05.about 275 military personnel. Do they go further and contemplate
:03:06. > :03:11.their support? General Petraeus argued against it as it might be
:03:12. > :03:17.seen as the US serving as the force of Shia Iraqis -- continue their
:03:18. > :03:26.support. Do we contemplate breaking up Iraq? It won't be easy. The Sunni
:03:27. > :03:29.and Shia Muslim populations don t live in clearly bordered areas, but
:03:30. > :03:34.in the longer term, do we deal with it in the same way we dealt with the
:03:35. > :03:38.break-up of the Ottoman empire over 100 years ago? In the short-term and
:03:39. > :03:45.long-term, completely confounding. Quite humiliating. If ISIS take
:03:46. > :03:52.Baghdad I can't think of a bigger ignominy for foreign policy since
:03:53. > :03:55.Suez. If Iraq is partitioned, it won't be up to us. It will be what
:03:56. > :04:01.is happening because of what is happening on the ground. Everything
:04:02. > :04:07.does point to partition, and that border, which ISIS control, between
:04:08. > :04:13.Syria and Iraq, that has been there since it was drawn during the First
:04:14. > :04:16.World War. That is gone as well An astonishingly humbling situation the
:04:17. > :04:24.West, and you can see the Kurds in the North think this is a charge --
:04:25. > :04:27.chance for authority. They think this is the chance to get the
:04:28. > :04:33.autonomy they felt they deserved a long time. Janan is right. We can't
:04:34. > :04:37.do much in the long term, but we have to decide on the engagement.
:04:38. > :04:40.And the other people wish you'd be talking turkey, because if there is
:04:41. > :04:45.some blowback and the fighters come back, they are likely to come back
:04:46. > :04:50.from Turkey. Where is Iran in all of this? There were reports last week
:04:51. > :04:53.that the Revolutionary guard, the head of it, he was already in
:04:54. > :04:58.Baghdad with 67 advisers and there might have been some brigades that
:04:59. > :05:03.have gone there as well. Where are they? What has happened? I'm pretty
:05:04. > :05:14.sure the Prime Minister of Iraq is putting more faith in Iran than the
:05:15. > :05:18.White House and the British. I think they are running the show, in
:05:19. > :05:23.technical terms. John Kerry is flying into Cairo this morning, and
:05:24. > :05:26.what is his message? It is twofold. One is to Arab countries, do more to
:05:27. > :05:31.encourage an inclusive government in Iraq, mainly Sunni Muslims in the
:05:32. > :05:37.government, and the Arab Gulf states should stop funding insurgents in
:05:38. > :05:42.Iraq. You think, Iraq, it's potentially going to break up, so
:05:43. > :05:45.this sounds a bit late in the day and a bit weak. It gets
:05:46. > :05:49.fundamentally to the problem, what can we do? Niall Ferguson has a big
:05:50. > :05:53.piece in the Sunday Times asking if this is place where we cannot doing
:05:54. > :05:59.anything. He doesn't want to do anything. By the way, that is what
:06:00. > :06:03.most Americans think. That is what opinion polls are showing. You have
:06:04. > :06:07.George Osborne Michael Gold who would love to get involved but they
:06:08. > :06:10.cannot because of the vote in parliament on Syria lasted -- George
:06:11. > :06:15.Osborne and Michael Gove. This government does not have the stomach
:06:16. > :06:19.for military intervention. We will see how events unfold on the ground.
:06:20. > :06:21.All parties are agreed that Britain's 60-year old multi-billion
:06:22. > :06:26.The Tory side of the Coalition think their reforms are necessary
:06:27. > :06:29.and popular, though they haven't always gone to time or to plan.
:06:30. > :06:33.In the eight months she's had since she became Shadow Secretary of State
:06:34. > :06:40.for Work and Pensions, Rachel Reeves has talked the talk about getting
:06:41. > :06:43.people off benefits, into work and lowering the overall welfare bill.
:06:44. > :06:45.her first interview in the job she threatened "We would
:06:46. > :06:49.But Labour has opposed just about every change the Coalition
:06:50. > :06:54.has proposed to cut the cost and change the culture of welfare.
:06:55. > :06:56.Child benefit, housing benefit, the ?26,000 benefit cap -
:06:57. > :07:03.They've been lukewarm about the government's flagship Universal
:07:04. > :07:06.Credit scheme - which rolls six benefit payments into one - and
:07:07. > :07:13.And Labour has set out only two modest welfare cuts.
:07:14. > :07:16.This week, Labour said young people must have skills or be in training
:07:17. > :07:22.That will save ?65 million, says Labour, though the cost
:07:23. > :07:27.And cutting winter fuel payments for richer pensioners which will
:07:28. > :07:35.Not a lot in a total welfare bill of around ?200 billion.
:07:36. > :07:38.And with welfare cuts popular among even Labour voters, they will soon
:07:39. > :07:44.have to start spelling out exactly what Labour welfare reform means.
:07:45. > :07:57.Welcome. Good morning. Why do you want to be tougher than the Tories?
:07:58. > :08:01.We want to be tough in getting the welfare bill down. Under this
:08:02. > :08:04.government, the bill will be ?1 million more than the government set
:08:05. > :08:09.out in 2010 and I don't think that is acceptable. We should try to
:08:10. > :08:13.control the cost of Social Security. But the welfare bill under the next
:08:14. > :08:17.Labour government will fall? It will be smaller when you end the first
:08:18. > :08:22.parliament than when you started? We signed up to the capping welfare but
:08:23. > :08:27.that doesn't see social security costs ball, it sees them go up in
:08:28. > :08:32.line with with inflation or average earnings -- costs fall. So where
:08:33. > :08:37.flair will rise? We have signed up to the cap -- welfare will rise We
:08:38. > :08:42.have signed up to the cap. We will get the costs under control and they
:08:43. > :08:44.haven't managed to achieve it. The government is spending ?13 billion
:08:45. > :08:50.more on Social Security and the reason they are doing it is because
:08:51. > :08:53.the minimum wage has not kept pace with the cost of living so people
:08:54. > :08:57.are reliant on tax credits. They are not building houses and people are
:08:58. > :09:03.relying on housing benefit. We have a record number of people on zero
:09:04. > :09:07.hours contracts. I'm still not clear if you will cut welfare if you get
:09:08. > :09:13.in power. Nobody is saying that the cost of welfare is going to fall.
:09:14. > :09:19.The welfare cap sees that happening gradually. That is a Tory cap. And
:09:20. > :09:26.you've accepted it. You're being the same as the Tories, not to. If they
:09:27. > :09:29.had a welfare cap, they would have breached it in every year of the
:09:30. > :09:34.parliament. Social Security will be higher than the government set out
:09:35. > :09:38.because they failed to control it. You read the polls, and the party
:09:39. > :09:41.does lots of its own polling, and you're scared of being seen as the
:09:42. > :09:47.welfare party. You don't really believe all of this anti-welfare
:09:48. > :09:50.stuff? We are the party of work not welfare. The Labour Party was set up
:09:51. > :09:53.in the first place because we believe in the dignity of work and
:09:54. > :09:56.we believe that work should pay wages can afford to live on. I make
:09:57. > :10:01.no apologies for being the party of work. We are not the welfare party,
:10:02. > :10:06.we are the party of work. Even your confidential strategy document
:10:07. > :10:09.admits that voters don't trust you on immigration, the economy, this is
:10:10. > :10:14.your own people, and welfare. You are not trusted on it. The most
:10:15. > :10:17.recent poll showed Labour slightly ahead of the Conservative Party on
:10:18. > :10:22.Social Security, probably because they have seen the incompetence and
:10:23. > :10:26.chaos at the Department for Work and Pensions under Iain Duncan Smith.
:10:27. > :10:32.Your own internal document means that the voters don't trust you on
:10:33. > :10:35.welfare reform. That is why we have shown some of this tough things we
:10:36. > :10:40.will do like the announcement that Ed Miliband made earlier this week,
:10:41. > :10:44.that young people without basic qualifications won't be entitled to
:10:45. > :10:47.just sign on for benefits, they have to sign up for training in order to
:10:48. > :10:50.receive support. That is the right thing to do by that group of young
:10:51. > :11:00.people, because they need skills to progress. We will, once that. - we
:11:01. > :11:05.will, onto that. You say you criticise the government that it had
:11:06. > :11:09.a cap and wouldn't have met it, but every money-saving welfare reform,
:11:10. > :11:16.you voted against it. How is that being tougher? The most recent bout
:11:17. > :11:20.was the cap on overall welfare expenditure, and we went through the
:11:21. > :11:25.lobbies and voted for the Tories. You voted against the benefit cap,
:11:26. > :11:30.welfare rating, you voted against, child benefit schemes, you voted
:11:31. > :11:32.against. You can't say we voted against everything when we voted
:11:33. > :11:37.with the Conservatives in the most recent bill with a cap on Social
:11:38. > :11:44.Security. It's just not correct to say. The last time we voted, we
:11:45. > :11:50.walked through the lobby with them. You voted on the principle of the
:11:51. > :11:55.cap. You voted on every step that would allow the cap to be met. Every
:11:56. > :11:59.single one. The most recent vote was not on the principle of the cap it
:12:00. > :12:02.was on a cap of Social Security in the next Parliament and we signed up
:12:03. > :12:06.for that. It was Ed Miliband who called her that earlier on. Which
:12:07. > :12:13.welfare reform did you vote for We voted for the cap. Other than that?
:12:14. > :12:19.We have supported universal credit. You voted against it in the third
:12:20. > :12:24.reading. We voted against some of the specifics. If you look at
:12:25. > :12:28.universal credit, they have had to write off nearly ?900 million of
:12:29. > :12:32.spending. I'm not on the rights and wrongs, I'm trying to work out what
:12:33. > :12:35.you voted for. Some of the things we are going to go further than the
:12:36. > :12:41.government with. For example, cutting benefits for young people
:12:42. > :12:44.who don't sign of the training. The government had introduced that. For
:12:45. > :12:46.example, saying that the richest pensioners should not get the winter
:12:47. > :12:51.fuel allowance, that is something the government haven't signed up.
:12:52. > :12:54.You would get that under Labour and this government haven't signed up
:12:55. > :13:00.for it. ?100 million on the winter fuel allowance and ?65 million on
:13:01. > :13:06.youth training. ?165 million. How big is the welfare budget? The cap
:13:07. > :13:13.would apply to ?120 billion. And you've saved 125 -- 165 million
:13:14. > :13:18.Those are cuts that we said we would do in government. If you look at the
:13:19. > :13:21.real prize from the changes Ed Miliband announced in the youth
:13:22. > :13:25.allowance, it's not the short-term savings, it's the fact that each of
:13:26. > :13:28.these young people, who are currently on unemployment benefits
:13:29. > :13:34.without the skills we know they need to succeed in life, they will cost
:13:35. > :13:39.the taxpayer ?2000 per year. I will come onto that. You mentioned
:13:40. > :13:42.universal credit, which the government regards as the flagship
:13:43. > :13:48.reform. It's had lots of troubles with it and it merges six benefits
:13:49. > :13:51.into one. You voted against it in the third reading and given lukewarm
:13:52. > :13:58.support in the past. We have not said he would abandon it, but now
:13:59. > :14:02.you say you are for it. You are all over the place. We set up the rescue
:14:03. > :14:04.committee in autumn of last year because we have seen from the
:14:05. > :14:09.National Audit Office and the Public Accounts Committee, report after
:14:10. > :14:14.report showing that the project is massively overbudget and is not
:14:15. > :14:18.going to be delivered according to the government timetable. We set up
:14:19. > :14:20.the committee because we believe in the principle of universal credit
:14:21. > :14:25.and think it is the right thing to do. Can you tell us now if you will
:14:26. > :14:32.keep it or not? Because there is no transparency and we have no idea. We
:14:33. > :14:37.are awash with information. We are not. The government, in the most
:14:38. > :14:42.recent National audit Forest -- National Audit Office statement said
:14:43. > :14:47.it was a reset project. This is really important. This is a flagship
:14:48. > :14:52.government programme, and it's going to cost ?12.8 billion to deliver,
:14:53. > :14:56.and we don't know what sort of state it is in, so we have said that if we
:14:57. > :15:04.win at the next election, we will pause that for three months and
:15:05. > :15:09.calling... Will you stop the pilots? We don't know what status they will
:15:10. > :15:12.have. We would stop the build of the system for three months, calling the
:15:13. > :15:18.National Audit Office to do awards and all report. The government don't
:15:19. > :15:21.need to do this until the next general election, they could do it
:15:22. > :15:26.today. Stop throwing good money after bad and get a grip of this
:15:27. > :15:31.incredibly important programme. You said you don't know enough to a view
:15:32. > :15:34.now. So when you were invited to a job centre where universal credit is
:15:35. > :15:40.being rolled out to see how it was working, you refused to go. Why We
:15:41. > :15:43.asked were a meeting with Iain Duncan Smith and he cancelled the
:15:44. > :15:46.meeting is three times. I'm talking about the visit when you were
:15:47. > :15:51.offered to go to a job centre and you refused. We had an appointment
:15:52. > :15:54.to meet Iain Duncan Smith at the Department for Work and Pensions and
:15:55. > :15:58.said he cancelled and was not available, but he wanted us to go to
:15:59. > :16:03.the job centre. We wanted to talk to him and his officials, which she
:16:04. > :16:06.did. Would it be more useful to go to the job centre and find out how
:16:07. > :16:21.it was working. He's going to tell you it's working fine.
:16:22. > :16:27.Advice Bureau in Hammersmith, they are working to help the people
:16:28. > :16:33.trying to claim universal credit. Iain Duncan Smith cancelled three
:16:34. > :16:38.meetings. That is another issue I was asking about the job centre It
:16:39. > :16:44.is not another issue because Iain Duncan Smith fogged us off. This
:16:45. > :16:48.week you said that jobless youngsters who won't take training
:16:49. > :16:57.will lose their welfare payments. How many young people are not in
:16:58. > :17:02.work training or education? There are 140,000 young people claiming
:17:03. > :17:09.benefits at the moment, but 850 000 young people who are not in work at
:17:10. > :17:16.the moment. This applies to around 100,000 young people. There are
:17:17. > :17:23.actually 975,000, 16-24 -year-olds, not in work, training or education.
:17:24. > :17:30.Your proposal only applies to 100,000 of them, why? This is
:17:31. > :17:36.applying to young people who are signing on for benefits rather than
:17:37. > :17:43.signing up for training. We want to make sure that all young people ..
:17:44. > :17:47.Why only 100,000? They are the ones currently getting job-seeker's
:17:48. > :18:00.allowance. We are saying you can not just sign up to... Can I get you to
:18:01. > :18:06.respond to this, the number of people not in work, training or
:18:07. > :18:16.education fell last year by more than you are planning to help. Long
:18:17. > :18:24.turn -- long-term unemployment is an entrenched problem... This issue
:18:25. > :18:30.about an entrenched group of young people. Young people who haven't got
:18:31. > :18:35.skills and are not in training we know are much less likely to get a
:18:36. > :18:41.job so there are 140,018-24 -year-olds signing onto benefits at
:18:42. > :18:45.the moment. This is about trying to address that problem to make sure
:18:46. > :18:51.all young people have the skills they need to get a job. Your policy
:18:52. > :18:55.is to take away part of the dole unless young unemployed people agree
:18:56. > :19:01.to study for level three qualifications, the equivalent of an
:19:02. > :19:09.AS-level or an NVQ but 40% of these people have the literary skills of a
:19:10. > :19:14.nine-year-old. After all that failed education, how are you going to
:19:15. > :19:19.train them to a level standard? We are saying that anyone who doesn't
:19:20. > :19:24.have that a level or equivalent qualification will be required to go
:19:25. > :19:29.back to college. We are not saying that within a year they have to get
:19:30. > :19:34.up to that level but these are exactly the sorts of people... These
:19:35. > :19:38.people have been failed by your education system. These people are,
:19:39. > :19:43.for the last four years, have been educated under a Conservative
:19:44. > :19:48.government. 18 - 21-year-olds, most of them have their education under a
:19:49. > :19:54.Labour government during which 300,000 people left with no GCSEs
:19:55. > :20:00.whatsoever. I don't understand how training for one year can do what 11
:20:01. > :20:03.years in school did not. We are not saying that within one year
:20:04. > :20:07.everybody will get up to a level three qualifications, but if you are
:20:08. > :20:11.one of those people who enters the Labour market age 18 with the
:20:12. > :20:19.reading skills of a nine-year-old, they are the sorts of people that
:20:20. > :20:26.should not the left languishing I went to college in Hackney if you
:20:27. > :20:30.you are -- a few weeks ago and there was a dyslexic boy studying painting
:20:31. > :20:35.and decorating. In school they decided he was a troublemaker and
:20:36. > :20:40.that he didn't want to learn. He went back to college because he
:20:41. > :20:45.wanted to get the skills. He said that it wasn't until he went back to
:20:46. > :20:49.college that he could pick up a newspaper and read it, it made a
:20:50. > :20:55.huge difference but too many people are let down by the system. I am
:20:56. > :21:00.wondering how the training will make up for an education system that
:21:01. > :21:04.failed them but let's move on to your leader. Look at this graph of
:21:05. > :21:10.Ed Miliband's popularity. This is the net satisfaction with him, it is
:21:11. > :21:16.dreadful. The trend continues to climb since he became leader of the
:21:17. > :21:20.Labour Party, why? What you have seen is another 2300 Labour
:21:21. > :21:25.councillors since Ed Miliband became the leader of the Labour Party. You
:21:26. > :21:33.saw in the elections a month ago that... Why is the satisfaction rate
:21:34. > :21:38.falling? We can look at polls or actual election results and the fact
:21:39. > :21:42.that we have got another 2000 Labour councillors, more people voting
:21:43. > :21:47.Labour, the opinion polls today show that if there was a general election
:21:48. > :21:55.today we would have a majority of more than 40, he must be doing
:21:56. > :22:00.something right. Why do almost 0% of voters want to replace him as
:22:01. > :22:07.leader? Why do 50% and more think that he is not up to the job? The
:22:08. > :22:13.more people see Ed Miliband, the less impressed they are. The British
:22:14. > :22:18.people seem to like him less. The election strategy I suggest that
:22:19. > :22:22.follows from that is that you should keep Ed Miliband under wraps until
:22:23. > :22:28.the election. Let's look at actually what happens when people get a
:22:29. > :22:32.chance to vote, when they get that opportunity we have seen more Labour
:22:33. > :22:39.councillors, more Labour members of the European Parliament...
:22:40. > :22:45.Oppositions always get more. The opinion polls today, one of them
:22:46. > :22:50.shows Labour four points ahead. You have not done that well in local
:22:51. > :22:55.government elections or European elections. Why don't people like
:22:56. > :23:01.him? I think we have done incredibly well in elections. People must like
:23:02. > :23:05.a lot of the things Labour and Ed Miliband are doing because we are
:23:06. > :23:09.winning back support across the country. We won local councils in
:23:10. > :23:15.places like Hammersmith and Fulham, Crawley, Hastings, key places that
:23:16. > :23:19.Labour need to win back at the general election next year. Even you
:23:20. > :23:26.have said traditional Labour supporters are abandoning the party.
:23:27. > :23:31.That is what Ed Miliband has said as well. We have got this real concern
:23:32. > :23:36.about what has happened. If you look at the elections in May, 60% of
:23:37. > :23:41.people didn't even bother going to vote. That is a profound issue not
:23:42. > :23:46.just for Labour. You said traditional voters who perhaps at
:23:47. > :23:51.times we took for granted are now being offered an alternative. Why
:23:52. > :23:56.did you take them for granted? This is what Ed Miliband said. I am not
:23:57. > :24:03.saying anything Ed Miliband himself has not said. When he ran for the
:24:04. > :24:07.leadership he said that we took too many people for granted and we
:24:08. > :24:11.needed to give people positive reasons to vote Labour, he has been
:24:12. > :24:15.doing that. He has been there for four years and you are saying you
:24:16. > :24:20.still take them for granted. Why? I am saying that for too long we have
:24:21. > :24:24.taken them for granted. We are on track to win the general election
:24:25. > :24:34.next year and that will defy all the odds. You are going to win... Ed
:24:35. > :24:39.Miliband will win next year and make a great Prime Minister.
:24:40. > :24:44.Now to the Liberal Democrats, at the risk of intruding into private
:24:45. > :24:47.grief. The party is still smarting from dire results in the European
:24:48. > :24:51.and Local Elections. The only poll Nick Clegg has won in recent times
:24:52. > :24:55.is to be voted the most unpopular leader of a party in modern British
:24:56. > :24:59.history. No surprise there have been calls for him to go, though that
:25:00. > :25:00.still looks unlikely. Here's Eleanor.
:25:01. > :25:05.Liberal Democrats celebrating, something we haven't seen for a
:25:06. > :25:11.while. This victory back in 199 led to a decade of power for the Lib
:25:12. > :25:16.Dems in Liverpool. What a contrast to the city's political landscape
:25:17. > :25:22.today. At its height the party had 69 local councillors, now down to
:25:23. > :25:26.just three. The scale of the challenge facing Nick Clegg and the
:25:27. > :25:31.Lib Dems is growing. The party is rock bottom in the polls,
:25:32. > :25:36.consistently in single figures. It was wiped out in the European
:25:37. > :25:42.elections losing all but one of its 12 MEPs and in the local elections
:25:43. > :25:49.it lost 42% of the seats that it was defending. But on Merseyside, Nick
:25:50. > :25:53.Clegg was putting on a brave face. We did badly in Liverpool,
:25:54. > :25:59.Manchester and London in particular, we did well in other places. But you
:26:00. > :26:03.are right, we did badly in some of those big cities and I have
:26:04. > :26:10.initiated a review, quite naturally, to understand what went
:26:11. > :26:14.wrong, what went right. As Lib Dems across the country get on with some
:26:15. > :26:19.serious soul-searching, there is an admission that his is the leader of
:26:20. > :26:24.the party who is failing to hit the right notes. Knocking on doors in
:26:25. > :26:30.Liverpool, I have to tell you that Nick Clegg is not a popular person.
:26:31. > :26:34.Some might use the word toxic and I find this very difficult because I
:26:35. > :26:38.know Nick very well and I see a principal person who passionately
:26:39. > :26:45.believes in what he is doing and he is a nice guy. As a result of his
:26:46. > :26:54.popularity, what has happened to the core vote? In parts of the country,
:26:55. > :26:58.we are down to just three councillors like Liverpool for
:26:59. > :27:02.example. You also lose the deliverers and fundraisers and the
:27:03. > :27:08.organisers and the members of course so all of that will have to be
:27:09. > :27:12.rebuilt. As they start fermenting process, local parties across the
:27:13. > :27:18.country and here in Liverpool have been voting on whether there should
:27:19. > :27:23.be a leadership contest. We had two choices to flush out and have a go
:27:24. > :27:27.at Nick Clegg or to positively decide we would sharpen up the
:27:28. > :27:32.campaign and get back on the streets, and by four to one ratio we
:27:33. > :27:38.decided to get back on the streets. We are bruised and battered but we
:27:39. > :27:43.are still here, the orange flag is still flying and one day it will fly
:27:44. > :27:49.over this building again, Liverpool town hall. But do people want the
:27:50. > :27:53.Lib Dems back in charge in this city? I certainly wouldn't vote for
:27:54. > :27:57.them. Their performance in Government and the way they have
:27:58. > :28:04.left their promises down, I could not vote for them again. I voted Lib
:28:05. > :28:10.Dem in the last election because of the university tuition fees and I
:28:11. > :28:14.would never vote for them again because they broke their promise.
:28:15. > :28:18.The Lib Dems are awful, broken promises and what have you. I
:28:19. > :28:22.wouldn't vote for them. This is the declaration of the results for the
:28:23. > :28:26.Northwest... Last month, as other party celebrated in the north-west,
:28:27. > :28:32.the Lib Dems here lost their only MEP, Chris Davies. Now there is
:28:33. > :28:39.concern the party doesn't know how to turn its fortunes around. We
:28:40. > :28:45.don't have an answer to that, if we did we would be grasping it with
:28:46. > :28:51.both hands. We will do our best to hold onto the places where we still
:28:52. > :28:56.have seats but as for the rest of the country where we have been
:28:57. > :29:00.hollowed out, we don't know how to start again until the next general
:29:01. > :29:02.election is out of the way. After their disastrous performance in the
:29:03. > :29:13.European elections, pressure is growing for the party to shift its
:29:14. > :29:18.stance. I think there has to be a lancing of the wound, there should
:29:19. > :29:24.in a referendum and the Liberal Democrats should be calling it. The
:29:25. > :29:30.rest of Europe once this because they are fed up with Britain being
:29:31. > :29:35.unable to make up its mind. The Lib Dems are now suffering the effects
:29:36. > :29:40.of being in Government. The party's problem, choosing the right course
:29:41. > :29:46.to regain political credibility We can now speak to form a Lib Dems
:29:47. > :29:51.leader Ming Campbell. Welcome back to the Sunday Politics. Even your
:29:52. > :29:58.own activists say that Nick Clegg is toxic. How will that change between
:29:59. > :30:02.now and the election? When you have had disappointing results, but you
:30:03. > :30:07.have to do is to rebuild. You pick yourself up and start all over
:30:08. > :30:12.again, and the reason why the Liberal Democrats got 57, 56 seats
:30:13. > :30:16.in the House of Commons now is because we picked ourselves up, we
:30:17. > :30:27.took every opportunity and we have rebuilt from the bottom up.
:30:28. > :30:30.least popular leader in modern history and more unpopular than your
:30:31. > :30:35.mate Gordon Brown. You are running out of time. No one believes that
:30:36. > :30:39.being the leader of a modern political party in the UK is an easy
:30:40. > :30:42.job. Both Ed Miliband and David Cameron must have had cause to
:30:43. > :30:47.think, over breakfast this morning, when they saw the headlines in some
:30:48. > :30:51.of the Sunday papers. Of course it is a difficult job but it was
:30:52. > :30:55.pointed out a moment or two ago that Nick Clegg is a man of principle and
:30:56. > :30:59.enormous resilience if you consider what he had to put up with, and in
:31:00. > :31:02.my view, he is quite clearly the person best qualified to lead the
:31:03. > :31:06.party between now and the general election and through the election
:31:07. > :31:11.campaign, and beyond. So why don't people like him? We have had to take
:31:12. > :31:15.some pretty difficult decisions and, of course, people didn't expect
:31:16. > :31:21.that. If you look back to the rather heady days of the rose garden behind
:31:22. > :31:25.ten Downing St, people thought it was all going to be sweetness and
:31:26. > :31:29.light, but the fact is, we didn t know then what we know now, about
:31:30. > :31:33.the extent of the economic crisis we win, and a lot of difficult
:31:34. > :31:38.decisions have had to be taken in order to restore economic stability.
:31:39. > :31:43.Look around you. You will see we are not there yet but we are a long way
:31:44. > :31:50.better off than in 2010. You are not getting the credit for it, the
:31:51. > :31:55.Tories are. We will be a little more assertive about taking the credit.
:31:56. > :31:58.For example, the fact that 23 million people have had a tax cut of
:31:59. > :32:02.?800 per year and we have taken 2 million people out of paying tax
:32:03. > :32:07.altogether. Ming Campbell, your people say that on every programme
:32:08. > :32:12.like this. Because it is true. That might be the case, but you are at
:32:13. > :32:14.seven or 8% in the polls, and nobody is listening, or they don't believe
:32:15. > :32:22.it. Once is listening, or they don't believe
:32:23. > :32:26.doubt that what we have achieved will be much more easily
:32:27. > :32:29.recognised, and there is no doubt, for example, in some of the recent
:32:30. > :32:31.polls, like the Ashcroft Pole, something like 30% of those polled
:32:32. > :32:39.said that as a result at the next something like 30% of those polled
:32:40. > :32:42.general election, they would prepare their to be a coalition involving
:32:43. > :32:48.the Liberal Democrats. So there is no question that the whole notion of
:32:49. > :32:53.coalition is still very much a live one, and one which we have made work
:32:54. > :32:56.in the public interest. The problem is people don't think that. People
:32:57. > :33:00.see you trying to have your cake and eat it. On the one hand you want to
:33:01. > :33:04.get your share of the credit for the turnaround in the economy, on the
:33:05. > :33:07.other hand you can't stop yourself from distancing yourself from the
:33:08. > :33:15.Tories and things that you did not like happening. You are trying to
:33:16. > :33:15.face both ways at once. If you remember our fellow Scotsman
:33:16. > :33:28.famously said you cannot ride both remember our fellow Scotsman
:33:29. > :33:28.to the terms -- terms of the remember our fellow Scotsman
:33:29. > :33:32.coalition agreement, which is what we signed up to in 2010. In
:33:33. > :33:36.addition, in furtherance of that agreement, we have created things
:33:37. > :33:40.like the pupil premium and the others I mentioned and you were
:33:41. > :33:43.rather dismissive. I'm not dismissive, I'm just saying they
:33:44. > :33:47.don't make a difference to what people think of you. We will do
:33:48. > :33:52.everything in our power to change that between now and May 2015. The
:33:53. > :33:58.interesting thing is, going back to the Ashcroft result, it demonstrated
:33:59. > :34:03.clearly that in constituencies where we have MPs and we are well dug in,
:34:04. > :34:09.we are doing everything that the public expects of us, and we are
:34:10. > :34:14.doing very well indeed. You aren't sure fellow Lib Dems have been
:34:15. > :34:17.saying this for you -- you and your fellow Liberal Dems have been saying
:34:18. > :34:21.this for a year or 18 months, and since then you have lost all of your
:34:22. > :34:25.MEPs apart from one, you lost your deposit in a by-election, you lost
:34:26. > :34:30.310 councillor, including everyone in Manchester or Islington. Mr Clegg
:34:31. > :34:37.leading you into the next general election will be the equivalent of
:34:38. > :34:42.the charge of the light Brigade I doubt that very much. The
:34:43. > :34:46.implication behind that lit you rehearsed is that we should pack our
:34:47. > :34:51.tents in the night and steal away. -- that litany. And if you heard in
:34:52. > :34:54.that piece that preceded the discussion, people were saying, look
:34:55. > :35:09.we have to start from the bottom and have to rebuild. That is exactly
:35:10. > :35:13.what we will do. Nine months is a period of gestation. As you well
:35:14. > :35:18.know. I wouldn't dismiss it quite so easily as that. I'm not here to say
:35:19. > :35:22.we had a wonderful result or anything like it, but what I do say
:35:23. > :35:26.is that the party is determined to turn it round, and that Nick Clegg
:35:27. > :35:31.is the person best qualified to do it. Should your party adopt a
:35:32. > :35:36.referendum about in or out on Europe? No, we should stick to the
:35:37. > :35:40.coalition agreement. If there is any transfer of power from Westminster
:35:41. > :35:46.to Brussels, that will be subject to a referendum. No change. And
:35:47. > :35:52.finally, as a Lib Dem, you must be glad you are not fighting the next
:35:53. > :35:57.election yourself? I've fought every election since 1974, so I've had a
:35:58. > :36:01.few experiences, some good, some bad, but the one thing I have done
:36:02. > :36:05.and the one thing a lot of other people have done is that they have
:36:06. > :36:07.stuck to the task, and that is what will happen in May 2015. Ming
:36:08. > :36:11.Campbell, thank you for joining us. It's just gone 11.35am, you're
:36:12. > :36:13.watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers
:36:14. > :36:38.in Scotland who leave us now International Festival of btsiness,
:36:39. > :36:46.50 days of discussion and deal`making. Coming up, frol being
:36:47. > :36:50.ripped to Bogota to Birmingham, Alabama. We will be meeting the
:36:51. > :36:59.regional business leaders from around the world. I think wd need to
:37:00. > :37:04.copy of what Liverpool is doing I will be asking the city 's linister
:37:05. > :37:12.of what the government is doing to help. But first, I will introduce
:37:13. > :37:19.our two guests. Firstly, ond of the key movers behind the festival, the
:37:20. > :37:27.mere of Liverpool and Jackid Foster. Jewel, tell us what the point is of
:37:28. > :37:32.this festival. The point is to support business from around the
:37:33. > :37:39.world, but it also brings greater attention to Liverpool and the
:37:40. > :37:42.region. It is great to take new opportunities to work with other
:37:43. > :37:51.businesses, to meet with thdm, to engage with them and exchange ideas.
:37:52. > :38:00.Is this an event which will be noticed abroad? I think it hs very
:38:01. > :38:05.important that it is recognhsed The Prime Minister launched last week.
:38:06. > :38:09.We have a lot to offer. The discussions were all born whth the
:38:10. > :38:15.businesses that are here in the north`west. I cover issues we will
:38:16. > :38:22.get things like the car indtstry in the European Union and I took part
:38:23. > :38:26.in debates from the maritimd industry here. There are huge
:38:27. > :38:34.advantages in having the most important festival in Britahn since
:38:35. > :38:41.1951. We start with schools, because the education committee this week
:38:42. > :38:43.pointed out that white workhng`class children are underperforming
:38:44. > :38:47.performing in comparison to other ethnic groups. There is evidence
:38:48. > :38:55.that the gap is widening. Wd have been having a look at the problem. I
:38:56. > :39:02.love to study and I miss sttdying. Vince Cable and the international
:39:03. > :39:09.business manager helping local businesses meet future employees.
:39:10. > :39:14.The aim was to take children to have a look at a future in science and
:39:15. > :39:22.technology careers. It is ilportant at this stage that children may make
:39:23. > :39:26.a decision no to maybe not take mathematics, which could be damaging
:39:27. > :39:29.in later life. But a report by the education committee says many
:39:30. > :39:36.children are not getting thdse chances. Weight children le`ve with
:39:37. > :39:45.food court qualifications than other ethnic groups. This compares to 42%
:39:46. > :39:54.of black Afro`Caribbean children and 61% of Indian children. Thex are
:39:55. > :39:58.also more likely to miss school They see that one way to improve the
:39:59. > :40:04.situation is to offer more support to teachers. It is important that
:40:05. > :40:09.the schools have the culturd of learning and support they whll do
:40:10. > :40:16.better. This includes with groups who underachieved. There is also the
:40:17. > :40:28.potential of longer school days to assist in homework. You havd two
:40:29. > :40:33.have aspirations. We have to put intangible processes and pr`ctices
:40:34. > :40:38.which will make this happen. Pool of white British generals of the lowest
:40:39. > :40:42.performing group. The charity founder organised this event to
:40:43. > :40:48.encourage girls specificallx. I am acutely aware of the fact that I
:40:49. > :40:53.have the opportunities I have read because of the women who went before
:40:54. > :40:58.me. This is an opportunity to help the girls to come in after hours.
:40:59. > :41:05.The MPs say the government needs to do more to encourage good graduates
:41:06. > :41:10.to become teachers. Jewel, xou are white and working`class, wh`t do you
:41:11. > :41:15.put the problem down to? I think it is a sweeping statement to say that
:41:16. > :41:22.it affects just white working`class people. There may be a problem
:41:23. > :41:28.across all backgrounds, ethnic backgrounds. There is a problem but
:41:29. > :41:32.the evidence from the education committee says it is the ethnic
:41:33. > :41:38.group which is doing worst. It is not in the city, I can tell you
:41:39. > :41:42.that. What we are doing in the these city is to support the schools to
:41:43. > :41:48.improve standards. That is the right approach. We highlight and support
:41:49. > :41:57.those who are not doing so well get in there very early. I think there
:41:58. > :42:02.is a problem for many peopld in Liverpool and other city regions,
:42:03. > :42:09.who are into adult life who cannot read or have the net necess`ry new
:42:10. > :42:13.ministry skills. We need to address that. We need to improve edtcation
:42:14. > :42:21.in terms of teachers and te`cher training, but it is also about
:42:22. > :42:24.parental responsibility. We are reaping the rewards for poor
:42:25. > :42:31.parenting, with children pl`ying on computers all the times are not
:42:32. > :42:34.practising the reading skills. What are the solutions? I think there are
:42:35. > :42:40.pockets throughout the country where we do have these challenges, not
:42:41. > :42:45.just Liverpool. It comes down to indiscipline in the home,
:42:46. > :42:51.indiscipline in the school. The head of Ofsted said that parents who do
:42:52. > :42:56.not make children get on with their homework and support them and get
:42:57. > :43:01.them to school should be showing sanctioned? I agree with th`t. Most
:43:02. > :43:07.of us came from a tradition`l working`class background and parents
:43:08. > :43:14.want their children to do wdll. This is another partnership. It hs the
:43:15. > :43:25.responsibility. I have alwaxs been very proactive in that respdct. I
:43:26. > :43:28.think the Education Secretary is working hard to raise the standard
:43:29. > :43:33.with local authorities as wdll, making sure the also play their
:43:34. > :43:38.part. When you have children leaving school who cannot read or write
:43:39. > :43:47.that is totally unacceptabld. Their life chances are no. It is dasy for
:43:48. > :43:52.the teachers to blame the p`rents. Those parents want their chhldren to
:43:53. > :43:58.leave school with qualifications. What about the ones who don't? What
:43:59. > :44:02.we need to do is make it cldar that this will affect their children for
:44:03. > :44:07.the life chances that other students will love. We need to and explained
:44:08. > :44:12.that they will not have the skills necessary to get into good hn
:44:13. > :44:18.employment. If we explain that and what with the parents, we c`n change
:44:19. > :44:22.things. It is a carrot and stick approach, rather than sancthons One
:44:23. > :44:30.of the guests at the festiv`l are some of the biggest names in
:44:31. > :44:35.business. We had Karen Bradx, the star of Dragons then, but wd also
:44:36. > :44:38.had big political leaders. We have been spending some time with city
:44:39. > :44:55.leaders from around the world. You may have helped the is ` small
:44:56. > :45:00.event on at the moment which is bringing people back from around the
:45:01. > :45:11.world. We are not talking about the World Cup, but the leaders summit in
:45:12. > :45:16.Liverpool. This summit was ` mix of debates, pictures, lectures and the
:45:17. > :45:21.odd photo opportunity and the chance to chat about the World Cup. What
:45:22. > :45:33.did some of those from around the world really lay! ? `` Leon?
:45:34. > :45:43.I think that Liverpool is a very wonderful city. We need to copy what
:45:44. > :45:51.Liverpool has done and take it to our city. It has been very
:45:52. > :45:55.interesting to see the transformation of the industrial
:45:56. > :46:01.area through regeneration. Ht shows how it can create a lot of social
:46:02. > :46:06.values. It was a city which was totally industry related. Wd want to
:46:07. > :46:11.create a new development so this is very important for us to get the
:46:12. > :46:17.inspiration from here. For lany it was about what Liverpool has done,
:46:18. > :46:27.but for many it was what thd leaders can do in the future. Premidre of
:46:28. > :46:32.Birmingham, Alabama loves the power he has compared with his opposite
:46:33. > :46:36.numbers in the United Kingdom. They have two be answerable to cdntral
:46:37. > :46:43.government more than I do. They have to deal with a lot of things I do
:46:44. > :46:51.not have to bother with. Ard the envious of your position?
:46:52. > :46:55.Absolutely. A lot of United Kingdom government is very decentralised, so
:46:56. > :47:02.it is important to see what can make a difference. The summit ended with
:47:03. > :47:05.a concert from the Liverpool Philharmonic Orchestra. Thex are
:47:06. > :47:12.confident that the informathon and ideas that have been receivdd will
:47:13. > :47:17.help both them and viewers who have visited help the cities. I caught up
:47:18. > :47:21.with the leaders later and `sked why government investment is sthll so
:47:22. > :47:27.skewed to the south`east of England. One of the reasons we have the city
:47:28. > :47:33.deals and growth deals in place is to make sure we take more investment
:47:34. > :47:39.from central government and put it into the hands of city leaddrs, like
:47:40. > :47:43.jewel in Liverpool. I want to do more than they want to do more. They
:47:44. > :47:50.want to do a lot more. You have this report from Michael Heseltine and
:47:51. > :47:54.they will see that there is a lot of stones unturned. They still have not
:47:55. > :47:59.got the financial levers to make the big decisions they want to. At the
:48:00. > :48:08.same time, there are big spdnding cuts to local government. It was a
:48:09. > :48:15.transformational report. He is now looking through all of the problems
:48:16. > :48:19.that have been coming from the likes of Liverpool and Manchester. What we
:48:20. > :48:25.have agreed to is that over the next few weeks, we will make dechsions to
:48:26. > :48:30.allocate ?2 billion in a single year of investment to the region`l
:48:31. > :48:41.economy. But Lord Heseltine said it needed something like ?70 bhllion.
:48:42. > :48:46.Over a period of time. This is revolutionary spending. What we have
:48:47. > :48:49.had to do over the last few months over the whole of England, xou have
:48:50. > :48:54.a city leaders and council leaders sitting down with business leaders,
:48:55. > :49:01.with typically the leaders of universities and colleges, to put
:49:02. > :49:05.together a plan for the loc`l economy, saying this is what we want
:49:06. > :49:12.to do to create jobs and to drive growth. Transport, for example. For
:49:13. > :49:17.example, for too long these decisions were made by the transport
:49:18. > :49:22.minister in London. We are seeing, put the money in the hands of local
:49:23. > :49:27.leaders here and let them m`ke the decisions and justify that to the
:49:28. > :49:32.local people and businesses. That is a big change. I am glad you raise
:49:33. > :49:38.the issue of transport. In London, they have control over the buses. It
:49:39. > :49:41.is simple and the bosses work very well. In Manchester and Livdrpool,
:49:42. > :49:46.they do not have the power to regulate the buses and they do not
:49:47. > :49:52.as well. That is exactly wh`t this programme is about. Everyond is
:49:53. > :49:55.being asked to see, what wotld you like to do differently? Is being
:49:56. > :50:01.asked to see, what would yot like to do differently? If, they can then do
:50:02. > :50:07.that. The fear is that someone like you is quite keen to devolvhng power
:50:08. > :50:13.and financial powers to the cities, but when it comes to Whiteh`ll in
:50:14. > :50:18.your cabinet colleagues, dods Iain Duncan Smith and the Departlent for
:50:19. > :50:22.Work and Pensions want to ghve up the work programmes and givd
:50:23. > :50:28.Manchester the likes of control over skills training kind of thing? David
:50:29. > :50:33.Cameron appointed me to be linister for cities and it was to pr`ise the
:50:34. > :50:38.fingers of the lever of powdr and do it in a different way. We h`ve
:50:39. > :50:43.succeeded in doing that. Thdre. That is arriving rising level of
:50:44. > :50:50.enthusiasm this. This is based on the calibre and quality of the
:50:51. > :51:00.leaders in places like this. We are joined by Professor Harding, an
:51:01. > :51:05.expert in economic regeneration Greg seeing the that the government
:51:06. > :51:09.has done more to devolve power and control to the big cities and
:51:10. > :51:15.previous governments. Is th`t true or false? I think Greg is a great
:51:16. > :51:18.advocate of for doing that. I would question whether the coalithon is
:51:19. > :51:27.moving that quickly towards doing it. But we see more of it are just
:51:28. > :51:31.talking a good game? I think they will see more. There is a bhg debate
:51:32. > :51:37.coming up before the next election we are every party will lovd to see
:51:38. > :51:42.exactly what they will see with regard to this. In terms of leading
:51:43. > :51:49.Liverpool, as the government giving you more power to do stuff? I think
:51:50. > :51:54.there is a view in both parties that they want to a few address this
:51:55. > :52:02.issue, so that cities have lore control over the own economhes. I
:52:03. > :52:09.think progressive people to understand that local econolies need
:52:10. > :52:18.to be rebalanced. But Michadl Heseltine was seeing that ?70
:52:19. > :52:25.billion would be needed for this and we have only got ?2 billion for
:52:26. > :52:31.this. What more power do yot need? We need to be able to spend the
:52:32. > :52:37.resources that we collect in taxes. 80% of the taxes are taken `way by
:52:38. > :52:42.central government. If you look at other places in the world, that is a
:52:43. > :52:47.ridiculously high amount. This jewel right that the government should be
:52:48. > :52:52.giving cities more power ovdr the money they raise in taxes? They are
:52:53. > :53:05.already doing that. He would say, not enough. We are localising things
:53:06. > :53:09.down to local enterprise agdncies. Liverpool is a fast`growing city but
:53:10. > :53:12.not everything can be done on public money. The whole point of the
:53:13. > :53:18.business festival is to encourage business from other areas to invest
:53:19. > :53:24.in this area are of the energy behind the creation jobs. Wd have
:53:25. > :53:29.been very proactive in terms of being involved in the regendration
:53:30. > :53:35.of the city. This is my citx. Should the government not be giving them
:53:36. > :53:42.more power? They have been. We have now got the super council. H do not
:53:43. > :53:54.know whether jewel agrees whth it. They have heard all sorts of
:53:55. > :53:58.problems to start with. It hs up to the politicians to take
:53:59. > :54:03.responsibility and when thex are given powers to localised issues,
:54:04. > :54:07.then that is what they have to do. Ten times more money is spent on
:54:08. > :54:13.transport in London than in the Northwest. If you look at the new
:54:14. > :54:19.jobs and businesses created, they are in London. It is about balancing
:54:20. > :54:23.the economy. We cannot just defend a light note says that we need more of
:54:24. > :54:28.the same. We need to do for other cities to across Europe, whhch is
:54:29. > :54:33.devolving the power and resources to these cities to do the decisions
:54:34. > :54:38.which mean most to them. Thdy do not want to be patronised by central
:54:39. > :54:44.government. It is not the money of central government, it is otr money.
:54:45. > :54:49.We want to keep the money please get in Liverpool to spend the rdst. We
:54:50. > :54:52.know we note with it needs to be spent. But that is the
:54:53. > :54:59.responsibility you take is the responsibility you take as. ?15
:55:00. > :55:06.million has not been collected and council tax. That is what ndeds to
:55:07. > :55:13.be done. The City Council ndeds to make difficult decisions, btt there
:55:14. > :55:16.are huge reserves that could be tapped into. Liverpool have not been
:55:17. > :55:23.kept short of money by the government. They were not kdpt short
:55:24. > :55:28.of money in the 1980s and 1890s As Liverpool lost a lot of mondy? All
:55:29. > :55:35.major cities have lost a lot of money. There is no doubt about that
:55:36. > :55:43.whatsoever. We need to make difficult decisions nationally about
:55:44. > :55:49.how we take that pain. But there is no doubt that certain resources have
:55:50. > :55:52.been withdrawn. The debate could go off on a party political direction
:55:53. > :55:58.when it does not need to. The issue here is, we are the most centralised
:55:59. > :56:07.country in Europe. We do not give power to local leaders that other
:56:08. > :56:14.cities in Europe do. We need to reverse the process. Good chties
:56:15. > :56:23.like Liverpool do more with greater powers if there was this big
:56:24. > :56:27.financial incentive? No, I think we have to live with the financial
:56:28. > :56:31.problems in the short`term, but what we need is a grown`up sensible talk
:56:32. > :56:37.about what is required and what money could be leaked on to and
:56:38. > :56:41.towns national government could work more effectively with city regions.
:56:42. > :56:45.That does not need more mondy, it just needs a different way of
:56:46. > :56:53.thinking. And the government would get some of it back. There hs no
:56:54. > :57:00.point going on about these throwaway lines about collecting council tax.
:57:01. > :57:04.It is still public money. It should be a debate about regenerathon and
:57:05. > :57:11.growth. We need to be given the power and resources. We takd this
:57:12. > :57:19.very seriously. It is time to look at the rest of the week 's news in
:57:20. > :57:25.60 seconds. Their welfare rdform minister was an old dog to `nnounce
:57:26. > :57:32.the expansion in the north`west of the universal credit. 90 job centres
:57:33. > :57:38.will offer it. The local MP said the large area covered by the N`tional
:57:39. > :57:46.health trust could be part of the problems. The trust will be placed
:57:47. > :57:50.into special measures. A three`week enquiry begins about the delolishing
:57:51. > :57:59.of the area around Ringo St`rr s old house. The leader of Rochdale
:58:00. > :58:04.council admitted using cann`bis and ecstasy. He made a confession after
:58:05. > :58:08.his ex`wife spoke to a national newspaper. I thought the right and
:58:09. > :58:15.proper thing to do was answdred properly. The transport minhster
:58:16. > :58:20.promised more seats in the trains on the route to London.
:58:21. > :58:28.What do you hope comes out of this festival? I hope to have more
:58:29. > :58:35.investment, more growth for Liverpool, more growth and success
:58:36. > :58:39.for Liverpool. We have the skills, the brains, the entrepreneurs and
:58:40. > :58:44.the entrepreneurs and their brains. This is the greatest place to
:58:45. > :58:49.invest. I hope everyone comds here. Are you on target to hit yotr
:58:50. > :58:56.objectives? I think it has been a huge success. We want to sell the
:58:57. > :59:02.city to other cities in the United Kingdom and across the world. It
:59:03. > :59:09.puts us in the shop window `nd we want businesses to do come back and
:59:10. > :59:15.do business with us once ag`in. Thank you very much for joining us.
:59:16. > :59:17.It is nice to get out the studio into such a fantastic setting in
:59:18. > :59:22.Liverpool. For now, they will hand information, you can apply to them
:59:23. > :59:24.and they will be obliged to tell you. Thanks for joining us. Andrew,
:59:25. > :59:43.back to you. think you'd want to. Labour grandees
:59:44. > :59:50.are not queueing up to sing his praises. Look at this. In my view,
:59:51. > :59:53.he is the leader we have and he is the leader I support and he is
:59:54. > :59:58.somebody capable of leading the party to victory. Ed Miliband will
:59:59. > :00:06.leave this to victory, and I believe he can. If he doesn't, what would
:00:07. > :00:09.happen to the Labour Party? We could be in the wilderness for 15 years.
:00:10. > :00:13.At the moment he has to convince people he has the capacity to lead
:00:14. > :00:19.the country. That's not my view but people don't believe that. We had a
:00:20. > :00:25.leader of the Labour Party was publicly embarrassed, because
:00:26. > :00:28.whoever was in charge of press letting go through a process where
:00:29. > :00:37.we have councillors in Merseyside resigning. It was a schoolboy error.
:00:38. > :00:46.Having policies without them being drawn together into a convincing and
:00:47. > :00:51.vivid narrative and with what you do the people in the country. You have
:00:52. > :00:57.to draw together, connect the policies, link them back to the
:00:58. > :01:07.leader and give people a real sense of where you are going. Somehow he
:01:08. > :01:12.has never quite managed to be himself and create that identity
:01:13. > :01:15.with the public. And we are joined by the president of you girls, Peter
:01:16. > :01:26.Kellner. Welcome to the Sunday politics. -- YouGov. The Labour
:01:27. > :01:30.Party is six points ahead in your poll this morning. So what is the
:01:31. > :01:35.problem? On this basis he will win the next election. If the election
:01:36. > :01:40.were today and the figures held up, you would have a Labour government
:01:41. > :01:44.with a narrow overall majority. One should not forget that. Let me make
:01:45. > :01:49.three points. The first is, in past parliaments, opposition normally
:01:50. > :01:55.lose ground and governments gain ground in the final few months. The
:01:56. > :02:01.opposition should be further ahead than this. I don't think six is
:02:02. > :02:04.enough. Secondly, Ed Miliband is behind David Cameron when people are
:02:05. > :02:08.asked who they want as Prime Minister and Labour is behind the
:02:09. > :02:11.Conservatives went people are asked who they trust on the economy. There
:02:12. > :02:14.have been elections when the party has won by being behind on
:02:15. > :02:19.leadership and other elections where they have won by being behind on the
:02:20. > :02:22.economy. No party has ever won an election when it has been clearly
:02:23. > :02:27.behind on both leadership and the economy. Let me have another go The
:02:28. > :02:32.Labour Party brand is a strong brand. The Tory Bramleys week. The
:02:33. > :02:42.Labour brand is stronger. That is a blast -- the Labour -- the Tory
:02:43. > :02:49.Bramleys week. A lot of the Tories -- the Tory brand is weak. Cant you
:02:50. > :02:56.win on policies and a strong party brand? If you have those too, you
:02:57. > :03:01.need the third factor which isn t there. People believing that you
:03:02. > :03:04.have what it takes, competent skills, determination,
:03:05. > :03:14.determination, whatever makes to carry through. -- whatever mix. A
:03:15. > :03:18.lot of Ed Miliband policies, on the banks, energy prices, Brent
:03:19. > :03:22.controls, people like them. But in government, would they carry them
:03:23. > :03:27.through? They think they are not up to it. -- rent controls. If people
:03:28. > :03:30.think you won't deliver what you say, even if they like it, they were
:03:31. > :03:36.necessarily vote for you. That is the missing third element. There is
:03:37. > :03:40.a strong Labour brand, but it's not strong enough to overcome the
:03:41. > :03:47.feeling that the Labour leadership is not up to it. Nick, you had some
:03:48. > :03:50.senior Labour figure telling you that if Mr Miliband losing the next
:03:51. > :03:53.election he will have to resign immediately and cannot fight another
:03:54. > :03:58.election the way Neil Kinnock did after 1987. What was remarkable to
:03:59. > :04:02.me was that people were even thinking along these lines, and even
:04:03. > :04:08.more remarkable that they would tell you they were thinking along these
:04:09. > :04:14.lines? What is the problem? The problem is, is that Ed Miliband says
:04:15. > :04:18.it would be unprecedented to win the general election after the second
:04:19. > :04:22.worst result since 1918. They are concerned about is the start of a
:04:23. > :04:24.script that he would say on the day after losing the general election.
:04:25. > :04:29.Essentially what the people are trying to do is get their argument
:04:30. > :04:33.in first and to say, you cannot do what Neil Kinnock did in 1987. Don't
:04:34. > :04:36.forget that Neil Kinnock in 198 was in the middle of a very brave
:04:37. > :04:41.process of modernisation and had one and fought a very campaign that was
:04:42. > :04:47.professional but he lost again in 1992, and they wanted to get their
:04:48. > :04:52.line in first. What some people are saying is that this is an election
:04:53. > :04:55.that the Labour Party should be winning because the coalition is so
:04:56. > :04:59.unpopular. If you don't win, I'm afraid to say, there is something
:05:00. > :05:02.wrong with you. Don't you find it remarkable that people are prepared
:05:03. > :05:05.to think along these lines at this stage, when Labour are ahead in the
:05:06. > :05:10.polls, still the bookies favourite to win, and you start to speak
:05:11. > :05:15.publicly, or in private to the public print, but we might have to
:05:16. > :05:18.get rid of him if he doesn't win. Everything you say about labour in
:05:19. > :05:22.this situation has been said about the Tories. We wondered whether
:05:23. > :05:26.Boris Johnson would tie himself to the mask and he is the next leader
:05:27. > :05:30.in waiting if Cameron goes. It's a mirror image of that. We talk about
:05:31. > :05:33.things being unprecedented. It's unprecedented for a government to
:05:34. > :05:37.gain seats. All the things you say about labour, you could say it the
:05:38. > :05:41.Conservatives. That's what makes the next election so interesting. But in
:05:42. > :05:44.the aftermath of the European elections and the local government
:05:45. > :05:48.elections, in which the Conservatives did not do that well,
:05:49. > :05:51.the issue was not Mr Cameron or the Tories doing well, the issue was the
:05:52. > :05:54.Labour Party and how they had not done as well as they should have
:05:55. > :05:58.done, and that conversation was fuelled by the kind of people who
:05:59. > :06:03.have been speaking to nick from the Labour Party. Rachel Reeves cited
:06:04. > :06:07.their real-life performance in elections as a reason for optimism.
:06:08. > :06:11.When in fact their performance in the Europeans and locals was
:06:12. > :06:15.disappointing for an opposition one year away from a general election.
:06:16. > :06:20.What alarms me about labour is the way they react to criticisms about
:06:21. > :06:23.Ed Miliband. Two years ago when he was attacked, they said they were 15
:06:24. > :06:26.points ahead, and then a year ago there were saying they were nine or
:06:27. > :06:32.ten ahead, and now they are saying we are still five or six ahead. The
:06:33. > :06:37.trend is alarming. It points to a smaller Labour lead. Am I right in
:06:38. > :06:43.detecting a bit of a class war going on in the Labour Party? There are a
:06:44. > :06:46.lot of northern Labour MPs who think that Ed Miliband is to north London,
:06:47. > :06:54.and there are too many metropolitan cronies around him must I think that
:06:55. > :06:57.is right, Andrew. What I think is, being a pessimist in terms of their
:06:58. > :07:02.prospects, I do think the Labour Party could win the next election. I
:07:03. > :07:06.just don't think they can as they are going at the moment. But the
:07:07. > :07:12.positioning for a possible defeat, what they should be talking about is
:07:13. > :07:15.what do we need to change in the party and the way Ed Miliband
:07:16. > :07:20.performs in order to secure victory. That is a debate they could have,
:07:21. > :07:27.and they could make the changes I find it odd that they are being so
:07:28. > :07:30.defeatist. Don't go away. Peter is a boffin when it comes to polls. That
:07:31. > :07:35.is why we have a mod for the election prediction swings and
:07:36. > :07:41.roundabouts. He is looking for what he calls the incumbency effect.
:07:42. > :07:45.Don't know what is a back-up -- what that's about question don't worry,
:07:46. > :07:54.here is an. Being in office is bad for your health. Political folk
:07:55. > :07:59.wisdom has it that incumbency favours one party in particular the
:08:00. > :08:03.Liberal Democrats. That is because their MPs have a reputation as
:08:04. > :08:07.ferociously good local campaigners who do really well at holding on to
:08:08. > :08:10.their seats. However, this time round, several big-name long serving
:08:11. > :08:18.Liberal Democrats like Ming Campbell, David Heath and Don Foster
:08:19. > :08:21.are standing down. Does that mean the incumbency effect disappears
:08:22. > :08:27.like a puff of smoke? Then there is another theory, called the sophomore
:08:28. > :08:31.surge. It might sound like a movie about US college kids, but it goes
:08:32. > :08:35.like this. New MPs tend to do better in their second election than they
:08:36. > :08:39.did in their first. That could favour the Tories because they have
:08:40. > :08:44.lots of first-time MPs. The big question is, what does this mean for
:08:45. > :08:52.the 7th of May 2015, the date of the next general election? The answer
:08:53. > :08:59.is, who knows? I know a man who knows. Peter. What does it all mean?
:09:00. > :09:03.You can go onto your PC now and draw down programmes which say that these
:09:04. > :09:07.are the voting figures from a national poll, so what will the
:09:08. > :09:10.seats look like? This is based on uniform swing. Every seat moving up
:09:11. > :09:16.and down across the country in the same way. Historically, that's been
:09:17. > :09:20.a pretty good guide. I think that's going to completely break down next
:09:21. > :09:23.year, because the Lib Dems will probably hold on to more seats than
:09:24. > :09:29.we predict from the national figures and I think fewer Tory seats will go
:09:30. > :09:33.to the Labour Party than you would predict from the national figures.
:09:34. > :09:38.The precise numbers, I'm not going to be too precise, but I would be
:09:39. > :09:44.surprised, sorry, I would not be surprised if Labour fell 20 or 5
:09:45. > :09:51.seats short on what we would expect on the uniform swing prediction
:09:52. > :09:53.Next year's election will be tight. Falling 20 seats short could well
:09:54. > :09:59.mean the difference between victory and defeat. What you make of that,
:10:00. > :10:04.Helen? I think you're right, especially taking into account the
:10:05. > :10:07.UKIP effect. We have no idea about that. The conventional wisdom is
:10:08. > :10:12.that will drain away back to the Conservatives, but nobody knows and
:10:13. > :10:16.it makes the next election almost impossible to call. It means it is a
:10:17. > :10:19.great target the people like Lord Ashcroft with marginal polling,
:10:20. > :10:24.because people have never been so interested. It is for party politics
:10:25. > :10:31.and we all assume that UKIP should be well next year, but their vote
:10:32. > :10:36.went up from 17 up to 27%. Then that 17% went down to 3%, so they might
:10:37. > :10:39.only be five or 6% in the general election, so they might not have the
:10:40. > :10:44.threat of depriving Conservatives of their seats. Where the incumbency
:10:45. > :10:50.thing has an effect is the Liberal Democrats. They have fortress seats
:10:51. > :10:53.where between 1992 and 1997 Liberal Democrats seats fell, but their
:10:54. > :10:58.percentage went up. They are losing the local government base though.
:10:59. > :11:02.True, but having people like Ming Campbell standing down means they
:11:03. > :11:05.will struggle. We are used to incumbency being an important factor
:11:06. > :11:10.in American politics. It's hard to get rid of an incumbent unless it is
:11:11. > :11:14.a primary election, like we saw in Virginia, but is it now becoming an
:11:15. > :11:18.important factor in British politics, that if you own the seat
:11:19. > :11:23.you're more likely to hold on to it than not? If it is, that's a
:11:24. > :11:26.remarkable thing. It's hard to be a carpetbagger in America, but it is
:11:27. > :11:30.normal in British Parliamentary constituencies to be represented by
:11:31. > :11:34.someone who did not grow up locally. It is a special kind of achievement
:11:35. > :11:37.to have an incumbency effect where you don't have deep roots in the
:11:38. > :11:41.constituency. I was going to ask about the Lib Dems. If we are wrong,
:11:42. > :11:44.and they collapse in Parliamentary representation as much as the share
:11:45. > :11:49.in vote collapses, is that not good news is that the Conservatives? They
:11:50. > :11:53.would be in second place in the majority of existing Lib Dems seats.
:11:54. > :11:56.For every seat where Labour are second to the Lib Dems, there are
:11:57. > :12:00.two where the Conservatives are second. If the Lib Dem
:12:01. > :12:08.representation collapses, that helps the Conservatives. I'm assuming the
:12:09. > :12:13.Tories will gain about ten seats. If they gain 20, if they'd had 20 more
:12:14. > :12:17.seats last time, they would have had a majority government, just about.
:12:18. > :12:22.So 20 seats off the Lib Dem, do the maths, as they say in America, and
:12:23. > :12:26.they could lose a handful to labour and still be able to run a one
:12:27. > :12:29.party, minority government. The fate of the Lib Dems could be crucial to
:12:30. > :12:36.the outcome to the politics of light. On the 8th of May, it will be
:12:37. > :12:41.VE Day and victory in election day as well as Europe. The Lib Dems will
:12:42. > :12:46.be apoplectic if they lose all of the seats to their coalition
:12:47. > :12:51.partners. The great quote by Angela Merkel, the little party always gets
:12:52. > :12:54.crushed. It's a well-established idea that coalition politics. They
:12:55. > :12:57.can't take credit for the things people like you may get lumbered
:12:58. > :13:01.with the ones they don't. They have contributed most of this terrible
:13:02. > :13:04.idea that seized politics where you say it, but you don't deliver it.
:13:05. > :13:10.Tuition fees is the classic example of this Parliament. Why should you
:13:11. > :13:14.believe any promise you make? And Ed Miliband is feeling that as well.
:13:15. > :13:19.But in 1974 the liberal Democrats barely had any MPs but there were
:13:20. > :13:22.reporters outside Jeremy Thorpe s home because they potentially held
:13:23. > :13:26.not the balance of power, but were significantly in fourth. Bringing
:13:27. > :13:30.back memories Jeremy Thorpe, and we will leave it there. Thanks to the
:13:31. > :13:34.panel. We are tomorrow on BBC Two. At the earlier time of 11am because
:13:35. > :13:39.of Wimbledon. Yes, it's that time of year again already. I will be back
:13:40. > :13:42.here at 11 o'clock next week. Remember, if it is Sunday, it is the
:13:43. > :14:39.Sunday Politics. to the beating heart
:14:40. > :14:43.of today's vibrant shops.