:00:37. > :00:38.Morning folks and welcome to The Sunday Politics,
:00:39. > :00:45.live from the Conservative Conference in Birmingham.
:00:46. > :00:46.There will be one less Conservative MP here after Mark Reckless defected
:00:47. > :00:52.He joins us live from his constituency, where he has
:00:53. > :00:59.It has not been the best of starts for the Prime Minister, as he
:01:00. > :01:02.arrives in Birmingham for the last Tory conference before the election.
:01:03. > :01:05.On top of the Reckless defection, a junior Tory minister has resigned
:01:06. > :01:14.RAF jets have carried out their first mission over Iraq
:01:15. > :01:21.We'll be hearing from UKIP leader Nigel Farage,
:01:22. > :01:24.and will anything persuade budding Conservatives to vote out the red
:01:25. > :01:33.In London, how the richest 1% are pulling further away, and why those
:01:34. > :01:37.priced out are choosing to move away.
:01:38. > :01:42.And joining me, three of the country's most loyal journalists,
:01:43. > :01:45.who sadly have yet to resign or defect to our inferior rivals.
:01:46. > :01:51.Nick Watt, Polly Toynbee and Janan Ganesh.
:01:52. > :01:54.And, of course, they'll be tweeting throughout the programme.
:01:55. > :01:58.And you too can get involved by using the hashtag #BBCSP.
:01:59. > :02:01.At the current rate of Tory resignations,
:02:02. > :02:04.Mr Cameron could be speaking to an empty hall when he makes his keynote
:02:05. > :02:08.address to the Tory conference here in Birmingham tomorrow.
:02:09. > :02:12.It's been a classic car crash of a start to the conference, with a UKIP
:02:13. > :02:15.defection, a minister shamed into resignation by a sex scandal and
:02:16. > :02:21.Ed Miliband's memory lapses now look like a little local difficulty.
:02:22. > :02:28.Here's what the Prime Minister had to say
:02:29. > :02:41.These things are frustrating and frankly counter-productive and
:02:42. > :02:44.rather senseless. If you want to have a European referendum, if you
:02:45. > :02:47.want to get the deficit down, if you want to build a stronger Britain
:02:48. > :02:52.that we can be proud of, there is only one option, which is to have a
:02:53. > :02:53.Conservative government after the next election.
:02:54. > :03:02.And Mark Reckless joins me now from Rochester.
:03:03. > :03:09.Welcome to the programme. Why did you lie to all your Conservative
:03:10. > :03:13.colleagues and mislead those who elected you? Well, I am keeping
:03:14. > :03:17.faith with my constituents and keeping my promises to them. You
:03:18. > :03:20.heard the Prime Minister saying that the Conservative led government was
:03:21. > :03:25.dealing with the deficit and cutting immigration. The reality is, we have
:03:26. > :03:29.increased the national debt by more in five years than even Labour
:03:30. > :03:33.managed in 13, and immigration is back up to the levels we saw under
:03:34. > :03:38.Labour. I believe in the promises I made in 2010, and I want to keep my
:03:39. > :03:41.words to my electorate, not least to deal with the deficit, cut
:03:42. > :03:45.immigration, reform the political system, to localise powers back to
:03:46. > :03:48.the community, particularly over house-building. The government has
:03:49. > :03:54.broken its word on all those things are. I want to keep my word to my
:03:55. > :04:00.voters here, and that is why I have done what I have done, by moving to
:04:01. > :04:04.UKIP. You have not kept your words to your Conservative constituency
:04:05. > :04:08.chairman. You assured him 48 hours ago that you would not defect, and
:04:09. > :04:13.you left his voice mail on the Conservative Party chairman's office
:04:14. > :04:18.telephone, missing to come to Birmingham to campaign for the
:04:19. > :04:39.Tories. This is your voice mail .. I have just picked up your e-mail ..
:04:40. > :04:43.So, Friday night, telling Grant Shapps you are coming to Birmingham
:04:44. > :04:50.to campaign for the Tories. The next day, you are joining UKIP. Why did
:04:51. > :04:55.you are a? I sounded a bit more hesitant on that call than I usually
:04:56. > :04:58.do, and I am not sure if that was the full conversation. But you
:04:59. > :05:02.cannot discuss these things in advance, you have to make a
:05:03. > :05:06.decision. I have decided the future of this country is better served by
:05:07. > :05:11.UKIP then it is by the Conservative Party under David Cameron. I made a
:05:12. > :05:21.lot of promises to my constituents, and I want to keep those promises.
:05:22. > :05:26.That is why I am moving to UKIP so I can deliver the change this
:05:27. > :05:33.country really needs. In May of this year, you said that Nigel Farage,
:05:34. > :05:37.quote, poses the most serious threat to a Tory victory at the election.
:05:38. > :05:43.So, you agree, voting UKIP means a Labour government? I think voting
:05:44. > :05:47.UKIP means getting UKIP. While in the past a disproportionate number
:05:48. > :05:50.of UKIP people were ex-Conservatives, now, they are
:05:51. > :05:54.winning a lot more people, from all parties. People are so disillusioned
:05:55. > :05:57.with the political class in Westminster, that they have not
:05:58. > :06:02.voted often for a generation. Those are the people Nigel Farage is
:06:03. > :06:07.inspiring, and frankly, he has also inspired me. What he has done in the
:06:08. > :06:11.last 20 years, building his party, getting people from all walks of
:06:12. > :06:15.life, sending up for ordinary people, I think deserves support.
:06:16. > :06:22.That is a key reason why I am moving. UKIP are now the agents of
:06:23. > :06:27.change. You said it poses them a serious threat to a Tory victory? My
:06:28. > :06:30.ambition is not a Tory victory. We made all of these promises in 2 10
:06:31. > :06:34.as Conservatives, and they have been broken. We now hear from David
:06:35. > :06:39.Cameron about English votes for English laws, supported by Nick
:06:40. > :06:42.Clegg as well, but that is what we said in our manifesto in 2010, and
:06:43. > :06:46.we have done absolutely nothing about it. It is not credible now to
:06:47. > :06:52.pretend that you are going to do those things. They have omitted to
:06:53. > :06:58.give every Scot ?1600 per year in definitely. If you want to stand up
:06:59. > :07:08.for the English taxpayer, and really tackle the debt, then UKIP are the
:07:09. > :07:11.party who will do that. But there is nothing principled about this, this
:07:12. > :07:17.is just an attempt to save your skin. You said UKIP stopped you
:07:18. > :07:20.winning in 2005 - UKIP did not stand in 2010, and you won. You are
:07:21. > :07:26.frightened that UKIP would beat you in the next election, this is to
:07:27. > :07:30.save your skin to me you think I am doing this because I am frightened,
:07:31. > :07:34.you think this is the easy option, to abandon my position in
:07:35. > :07:45.Parliament, but my principles on the line? On the contrary, you look at
:07:46. > :07:48.MPs who have moved party before almost none of them have given their
:07:49. > :07:53.voters to chance to have a say on what they have done. I am asking
:07:54. > :07:56.permission from my voters, and I am moving to UKIP because I believe
:07:57. > :08:01.many of the people in my constituency have been let down by a
:08:02. > :08:04.Conservative led government, and that what UKIP is saying appeals to
:08:05. > :08:11.decent, hard-working people, who want to see real change in our
:08:12. > :08:14.country. If they do not agree, then they can vote in a by-election and
:08:15. > :08:23.have their say on who they want to be their MP. I am being open and
:08:24. > :08:26.honest, giving people a say. I am trying to do the right thing by my
:08:27. > :08:32.constituents, and whatever the risk is to me personally, I think it is
:08:33. > :08:35.the right thing to do. It is what MPs should be in politics to try and
:08:36. > :08:42.do for the people they represent. Your defection, coming after Douglas
:08:43. > :08:45.Carswell's, confirms the claim that UKIP is largely a depository for
:08:46. > :08:51.disaffected right-wing Tories like yourself, isn't it? On the contrary,
:08:52. > :08:55.the number of people I met in Doncaster yesterday was
:08:56. > :08:59.extraordinary. When I first went to Conservative conferences 20 years
:09:00. > :09:02.ago, there was some enthusiasm for politics, I remember Norman Tebbit
:09:03. > :09:06.speaking against Maastricht, people fought they could change things
:09:07. > :09:12.there was real politics. But I do not think you will see that at
:09:13. > :09:15.Birmingham this week, it is PR people, lobbyists, corporate, few
:09:16. > :09:19.ordinary members of. At Ancaster, people had saved up for months just
:09:20. > :09:24.to get the rail ticket to Doncaster. People who believe in UKIP, who
:09:25. > :09:31.believe in Nigel Farage, who believe in the team, as agents of change,
:09:32. > :09:38.who can actually deal with a political class at Westminster which
:09:39. > :09:41.has let able down. We want proper reform to the political system,
:09:42. > :09:48.which David Cameron promises but does not deliver. Final question -
:09:49. > :09:51.after the next election, the Prime Minister is going to be either David
:09:52. > :09:57.Cameron or Ed Miliband, that is the choice, one or the other - who would
:09:58. > :10:01.you prefer? Well, what we would prefer is to get the most UKIP
:10:02. > :10:08.policies implemented. We want a first rate we want to deal with
:10:09. > :10:13.immigration. I asked about who you wanted to be Prime Minister. We will
:10:14. > :10:18.look at the circumstances. We need as many UKIP MPs as possible, to
:10:19. > :10:31.restore trust in politics. If people vote UKIP, they will get UKIP. How
:10:32. > :10:36.serious is this? I think it is very serious. It is the old Tory disease,
:10:37. > :10:40.destroyed John Major, and it has been bubbling away again. It is
:10:41. > :10:44.beginning to feel like the worst days of Labour in the early nineteen
:10:45. > :10:50.eighties. It matters, because people care passionately. It is nothing
:10:51. > :10:55.like Labour in the early 1980s, it is bad, but it is nothing like that.
:10:56. > :10:59.There are these very strong strands. People like David Davis
:11:00. > :11:02.writing a large piece in the Daily Mail attacking the leader on the
:11:03. > :11:05.first day of the conference. That is the kind of thing that Labour used
:11:06. > :11:12.to do. That is what David Davis does all the time! But this is authentic
:11:13. > :11:17.in the sense that there is a real, genuine dispute about Europe. Some
:11:18. > :11:20.of us were not around in the 19 0s, but I imagine it is pretty bad.
:11:21. > :11:23.There is the short-term problem of the by-election they might lose the
:11:24. > :11:27.media problem of the general election which they cannot win if
:11:28. > :11:30.UKIP remain anywhere near their current level of support. But in
:11:31. > :11:35.many ways the longer term question is the most pressing, which is, does
:11:36. > :11:38.it make sense for the Conservative Party to remain one party, or would
:11:39. > :11:44.it not be better for the hard-core of 20-30 intransigent Eurosceptics
:11:45. > :11:49.to essentially join UKIP or form their own party? At least the
:11:50. > :11:53.Conservatives would become more internally manageable. And probably
:11:54. > :12:00.lose the next election. Probably, yes. That is what you are advising
:12:01. > :12:05.them? If the reward is to have a coherent party in 15 years' time. It
:12:06. > :12:10.is just as well you are a columnist, not a party strategist. I
:12:11. > :12:15.was an anorak in the 1980s, who watched the Labour conference on the
:12:16. > :12:20.TV. Were you wearing your anorak? Of course I was, that is how sad I am.
:12:21. > :12:24.But once again the crisis from UKIP has forced the Prime Minister to
:12:25. > :12:29.step in an even more Eurosceptic direction. Said on television what
:12:30. > :12:34.he was trying not to say, which is that if he does not get his way in
:12:35. > :12:38.the European negotiations, he will recommend to the British people that
:12:39. > :12:42.we should go. He began by saying, as I have always said, and when they
:12:43. > :12:46.say that, you know they are saying something new. He basically said,
:12:47. > :12:52.Britain should not stay if it is not in Britain's interests. I think this
:12:53. > :12:59.is big stakes for both the Tories and four UKIP. The Tories are able
:13:00. > :13:02.to write off Clacton. Rochester is number 271 on the UKIP friendly
:13:03. > :13:07.list. If the Tories win it, big moment for them. If UKIP lose it,
:13:08. > :13:19.this strategy of various will be facing a bit of a setback.
:13:20. > :13:22.To what extent are Mark Reckless's views shared by Conservative
:13:23. > :13:26.The Sunday Politics commissioned an exclusive poll of Conservative
:13:27. > :13:31.Pollsters ComRes spoke to over ,000 councillors -
:13:32. > :13:34.that's almost an eighth of their council base - and Eleanor Garnier
:13:35. > :13:47.There is not a single party conference at the seaside this year,
:13:48. > :13:51.and Sunday Politics could not get through them all without a trip to
:13:52. > :13:55.the coast. So here we are on the shore in Sussex. There are plenty of
:13:56. > :14:00.Conservative councillors here, and Tory MPs as well, but one challenge
:14:01. > :14:07.they all face is UKIP, who have got their sights on coastal towns.
:14:08. > :14:10.Places like Worthing East and surer and, with high numbers of
:14:11. > :14:15.pensioners, providing rich pickings for UKIP. In West Sussex, the Tories
:14:16. > :14:22.run the county council, but UKIP are the official opposition, with ten
:14:23. > :14:26.councillors. We cannot lose any more ground to UKIP. If we lose any more
:14:27. > :14:30.ground, if you look at the way it has swung from us to them, it is
:14:31. > :14:34.getting near to being the middle point, where we might start losing
:14:35. > :14:43.seats which we have always regarded as safe seats. So, it has got to be
:14:44. > :14:46.stemmed, it cannot go any further. Our exclusive survey looked at the
:14:47. > :14:51.policy areas where the Conservatives are vulnerable to UKIP. If an EU
:14:52. > :14:58.Referendum Bill is called tomorrow, 45% say they would vote to leave,
:14:59. > :15:10.39% would stay in. Asked about immigration...
:15:11. > :15:18.It was those issues, Europe and immigration, that Mark Reckless said
:15:19. > :15:22.were the head of his decision. I promised to cut immigration while
:15:23. > :15:28.treating people fairly and humanely. I cannot keep that promise as a
:15:29. > :15:32.Conservative, I can keep it as UKIP. When asked if Conservative
:15:33. > :15:37.councillors would like an electoral pact with UKIP in the run-up to the
:15:38. > :15:43.general election, one third said they support the idea. 63% are
:15:44. > :15:48.opposed and 7% don't know. Conservative councillors who left
:15:49. > :15:55.the party to join UKIP say it wasn't easy. I left because basically the
:15:56. > :16:01.Conservatives left me. I saw it as a difficult decision to change, but
:16:02. > :16:10.what I was seeing with UKIP was freed. Me being able to speak for my
:16:11. > :16:14.residents. Back to our survey and on climate change 49% said it was
:16:15. > :16:22.happening, but that humans are not to blame. Our survey showed that 60%
:16:23. > :16:27.think David Cameron was wrong to pursue legalising gay marriage, with
:16:28. > :16:32.31% saying it was the right thing to do and 9% not sure. In Worthing
:16:33. > :16:38.councillors said gay marriage was divisive. That has really been an
:16:39. > :16:46.issue here, it might have damaged the party slightly, and I think in a
:16:47. > :16:51.way by setting a rule like that it is a very religious thing and it is
:16:52. > :16:57.almost trying to play God to make that decision. But some of the
:16:58. > :17:02.party's toughest decisions have been over the economy. 56% in our survey
:17:03. > :17:08.thought the spending cuts the Government has so far announced have
:17:09. > :17:14.not gone far enough. 6% were not sure. They are prepared for
:17:15. > :17:18.difficult decisions, but local activists say the party's voice must
:17:19. > :17:24.be clearer. I think the message has to be more forceful, it has to be
:17:25. > :17:30.specially targeted to the ex-Conservative voters who now vote
:17:31. > :17:34.UKIP, especially in this area, the vast majority of UKIP people are
:17:35. > :17:38.disillusioned Conservatives. The message has to be loud and strong,
:17:39. > :17:43.come back and we are the party to give you what you want. With just
:17:44. > :17:48.eight months until the general election, the pressure is on and
:17:49. > :17:54.local Conservatives are searching for clues to help their party stem
:17:55. > :18:00.the flow of defections. Joining me now is William Hague, the former
:18:01. > :18:04.Foreign Secretary and the Leader of the House of Commons.
:18:05. > :18:08.Tories like Mark Reckless are defecting to UKIP because they don't
:18:09. > :18:13.trust the party leadership to deliver on Europe, do they? They
:18:14. > :18:18.believe people like you and David Cameron will campaign to stay in and
:18:19. > :18:25.they are right. They said before they defected that people should
:18:26. > :18:30.vote Conservative to get a referendum on Europe, and that is
:18:31. > :18:35.right of course. The only way to get a referendum is to do that and this
:18:36. > :18:39.is the point, the people should decide. However a future government
:18:40. > :18:45.decides it will campaign, it should be the people of the country who
:18:46. > :18:49.decide. Can you say to our viewers this morning that is not enough
:18:50. > :18:54.powers are repatriated back to Britain, you would want to come
:18:55. > :19:00.out, can you say that? Our objective is to get those powers and stay in.
:19:01. > :19:05.The answer to the question is I won't be deciding, David Cameron
:19:06. > :19:11.won't be deciding, you the voters will be deciding. But you have to
:19:12. > :19:16.give us your view. If you don't get enough powers back, would you vote
:19:17. > :19:22.to come out and recommended? Our objective is to get those powers and
:19:23. > :19:27.be able to stay in. You just get endless speculation years in
:19:28. > :19:31.advance. I will decide at the time how I will vote. Surely that is the
:19:32. > :19:37.rational position for everyone to take but I want a referendum to take
:19:38. > :19:42.place. I understand that. As you pointed out to Mark Reckless just
:19:43. > :19:46.now, unless there is a Conservative government, people won't have that
:19:47. > :19:55.choice. Under a Labour government they will not get a choice at all.
:19:56. > :19:59.Our survey of Tory councillors shows that almost 50% would vote to leave
:20:00. > :20:06.the EU in a referendum. I think it showed, wasn't it 45, and 39%, but
:20:07. > :20:12.again, I'm pretty sure they will decide at the time. They will want
:20:13. > :20:17.to see what a future government achieves in a renegotiation before
:20:18. > :20:21.they decide what to vote in a referendum. Unless David Cameron is
:20:22. > :20:29.Prime Minister and there is a Conservative government, there will
:20:30. > :20:33.not be a renegotiation. That is a point you have made four times. I
:20:34. > :20:36.think they have got it. Your Cabinet colleague says we should not be
:20:37. > :20:41.scared of quitting the EU, but you went native in the Foreign Office,
:20:42. > :20:47.didn't you? You used to be a Eurosceptic, you are now the Foreign
:20:48. > :20:51.Office line man. No, I don't think so! We brought back the first
:20:52. > :20:59.reduced European budget ever in history. Even Margaret Thatcher ..
:21:00. > :21:03.Leaving the EU scares you, doesn't it? Not much scares me after 26
:21:04. > :21:12.years in politics but we want to do the best thing for the country.
:21:13. > :21:17.Where we scared when we got us out of liability for Eurozone bailouts?
:21:18. > :21:20.We were not scared of anybody. People said we couldn't achieve
:21:21. > :21:27.things but we negotiated these things. We can do that with a wider
:21:28. > :21:34.negotiation in Europe. Mr Reckless says he cannot keep the Conservative
:21:35. > :21:48.promise to tackle immigration. You have failed to keep your promise to
:21:49. > :21:53.keep net immigration down. You promised to cut it below 100,00 ,
:21:54. > :22:12.you failed. It is over 200,000 people. We have cut it from 250 000
:22:13. > :22:19.in 2005, the last figures were 240,000. I think we can file that
:22:20. > :22:24.under F four failed. It includes students, we want them in the
:22:25. > :22:29.country. You knew that when you made the promise. But has it come down?
:22:30. > :22:35.Yes, it has. Have we stopped the promise. But has it come down?
:22:36. > :22:40.coming here because of our benefit system? Yes. None of that happened
:22:41. > :22:45.under Labour. If Mark Reckless had his way, it would be more likely we
:22:46. > :22:51.would have a Labour government. They have an open door policy on
:22:52. > :22:57.immigration. You are not just losing MPs to UKIP, you are losing voters.
:22:58. > :23:01.Polling by Michael Ashcroft shows that 20% of people who voted Tory in
:23:02. > :23:06.2010 have abandoned youth and three quarters of them are voting UKIP
:23:07. > :23:13.now. We will see in the general election. Politics is very fluid in
:23:14. > :23:17.this country and we shouldn't deny that in any way but UKIP thought
:23:18. > :23:21.they were going to win the by-election in Newark, we had a
:23:22. > :23:26.thumping Conservative victory, and I think opinion polls are snapshots of
:23:27. > :23:31.opinion now. They are not forecast of the general election and we will
:23:32. > :23:35.be doing everything we can to get our message across. Today we are
:23:36. > :23:39.announcing 3 million more apprenticeships in the next
:23:40. > :23:45.Parliament. I think this is what people will be voting on, rather
:23:46. > :23:52.than who has defected. Your activist base once parked with UKIP. Our
:23:53. > :23:59.survey shows a third of Tory councillors would like a formal pact
:24:00. > :24:08.with UKIP. Why not? It shows two thirds are against it. No, it shows
:24:09. > :24:14.one third want it. I read the figures, it showed 67% don't want
:24:15. > :24:19.it. We are not going to make a pact with other parties, and they don't
:24:20. > :24:25.work in the British electoral system even if they were desirable. You are
:24:26. > :24:31.sharing the Cabinet committee on English votes for English laws. Is
:24:32. > :24:35.further devolution for Scotland conditional on progress towards
:24:36. > :24:39.English devolution? No, the commitment to Scotland is
:24:40. > :24:43.unconditional. We will meet the commitments to Scotland but we
:24:44. > :24:47.believe, we the Conservatives believe, that in tandem with that we
:24:48. > :24:52.have to resolve these questions about fairness to the rest of the UK
:24:53. > :24:57.as well. That will depend on other parties or the general election
:24:58. > :25:03.result. Are you committed to the Gordon Brown timetable? Yes,
:25:04. > :25:07.absolutely. So you are committed to producing draft legislation by Burns
:25:08. > :25:13.night, that is at the end of January. Will you produce proposals
:25:14. > :25:17.for English votes on English laws by then? We will, but whether they are
:25:18. > :25:24.agreed across the parties will depend on the other parties. There
:25:25. > :25:31.was no sign that they were agreeable at the Labour conference. We will
:25:32. > :25:35.produce our ideas on the same timetable as the timetable for
:25:36. > :25:40.Scottish devolution. You will therefore bring forward proposals
:25:41. > :25:45.for English votes for English laws by the end of January? Yes. And will
:25:46. > :25:50.you attempt to get them on the statute book before the election?
:25:51. > :25:56.The commitment in Scotland is to legislate after the election. You
:25:57. > :26:00.will publish a bill beforehand? We will publish proposals beforehand. I
:26:01. > :26:05.don't exclude doing something before the election, but the Scottish
:26:06. > :26:10.timetable is to legislate for the further devolution after the general
:26:11. > :26:15.election, whoever wins the election. Have you given thought as to what
:26:16. > :26:22.English votes for English laws would mean? I have thought a lot of it
:26:23. > :26:26.over 15 years. I am not going to prejudge what the outcome will be,
:26:27. > :26:32.but it does mean in essence that when decisions are taken, decisions
:26:33. > :26:37.that only affect England or only England and Wales, then only the MPs
:26:38. > :26:41.from England and Wales should be making those decisions. You can
:26:42. > :26:45.achieve that in many different ways. Is that it for English
:26:46. > :26:51.devolution, is that what it amounts to? That is devolution to England if
:26:52. > :26:56.you like, but within England there is a lot of other devolution going
:26:57. > :27:00.on and we might well want to extend that further. We have given more
:27:01. > :27:06.freedom to local authorities, there is a lot of scope to do more of
:27:07. > :27:15.that, but that in itself is not the answer to the problem of what
:27:16. > :27:20.happens at Westminster. You haven't just given Scotland more devolution
:27:21. > :27:24.or planned to do it, you have also enshrined the Barnett formula and
:27:25. > :27:29.that seems to be in perpetuity. It is widely regarded as being unfair
:27:30. > :27:34.to Wales and many of the poorer English regions. Why do you
:27:35. > :27:40.perpetuate it? It will become less relevant overtime if more
:27:41. > :27:46.tax-raising powers... It goes all the way back to the 1970s, we made a
:27:47. > :27:51.commitment on that, we will keep our commitments to Scotland as more --
:27:52. > :27:59.but as more tax-raising powers devolved, the Barnett formula is
:28:00. > :28:04.less significant. If you transfer ?5 billion of tax-raising powers to
:28:05. > :28:09.Scotland, 5 billion comes off the Barnett formula? It will be a lot
:28:10. > :28:13.more complicated than that, but yes, as their own decisions about
:28:14. > :28:19.taxation are made, the grand from Westminster will go down. And you
:28:20. > :28:23.can guarantee that if there is a majority Conservative government,
:28:24. > :28:27.there will be English votes for English laws after the election
:28:28. > :28:31.Yes, I stress again that there are different ways of doing it but if
:28:32. > :28:35.there is no cross-party agreement on that, the Conservatives will produce
:28:36. > :28:40.our proposals and campaign for them in the general election. Don't go
:28:41. > :28:46.away because I want to move on to some other matters.
:28:47. > :28:48.Now to the fight against so-called Islamic State terrorists.
:28:49. > :28:51.Yesterday, RAF Tornado jets carried out their first flights over Iraq
:28:52. > :28:54.since MPs gave their approval for air-strikes against the militants.
:28:55. > :29:02.When you face a situation with psychobabble -- psychopathic killers
:29:03. > :29:06.who have already brutally beheaded one of our own citizens, who have
:29:07. > :29:11.already launched and tried to execute plots in our own country to
:29:12. > :29:17.maim innocent people, we have a choice - we can either stand back
:29:18. > :29:21.from this and say it is too difficult, let's let someone else
:29:22. > :29:25.try to keep our country safe, or we take the correct decision to have a
:29:26. > :29:29.full, comprehensive strategy but let's be prepared to play our role
:29:30. > :29:33.to make sure these people cannot do not trust harm.
:29:34. > :29:37.And William Hague is still with me - until July he was, of course,
:29:38. > :29:49.Why have only six Tornado jets being mobilised? Do not assume that is all
:29:50. > :29:53.that will be taking part in this operation. That is all that has been
:29:54. > :30:00.announced and I do not think we should speculate. Even the Danes are
:30:01. > :30:02.sending more fighter jets. There is no restriction in the House of
:30:03. > :30:09.Commons resolution passed on Friday on what we can do. So why so
:30:10. > :30:14.little? Do not underestimate what our Tornados can do. They have some
:30:15. > :30:18.unique capabilities, capabilities which have been specifically asked
:30:19. > :30:22.for by our allies. When you are on the wrong end of six Tornados, it
:30:23. > :30:27.will not feel like a small effort. But there will be other things which
:30:28. > :30:31.can add to that effort. We are joining in a month after the
:30:32. > :30:36.operation started, we are late, we are behind America, France,
:30:37. > :30:40.Australia, Jordan, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, one hand tied behind our
:30:41. > :30:45.backs cause of the rule about not attacking Syria - why is the British
:30:46. > :30:49.government leading from behind? First of all, we are a democratic
:30:50. > :30:54.country, and you know all about Parliamentary approval. You could
:30:55. > :30:59.have recalled parliament. We have done that, with a political
:31:00. > :31:04.consensus. Other European countries also took the decision on Friday to
:31:05. > :31:06.send their military assets. Our allies are absolutely content with
:31:07. > :31:10.that, and Britain will play an important role, along with many
:31:11. > :31:17.other nations, including Arab nations. General Sir David Richards
:31:18. > :31:23.Sheriff, who just steps down as the Nato Deputy Supreme Commander, he
:31:24. > :31:25.condemns the spineless lack of leadership and the absence of any
:31:26. > :31:36.credible strategy. It is embarrassing,isn't it? Of course,
:31:37. > :31:40.they turn into armchair generals. We are playing an important role, we
:31:41. > :31:44.are a democratic country. Your viewers will remember, we had a vote
:31:45. > :31:48.last year on military action in Syria and we were defeated in the
:31:49. > :31:52.House of Commons, a bad moment for our foreign policy. We have taken
:31:53. > :31:55.care to bring this forward when we can win a vote in the House of
:31:56. > :32:04.Commons, and that is how we will proceed. The air Chief Marshal until
:32:05. > :32:09.recently in charge of the RAF, he says, it makes no sense to bomb Iraq
:32:10. > :32:15.but not Syria. He calls the decision ludicrous. Of course, it DOES make
:32:16. > :32:23.sense to bomb Iraq, because the Iraqi government has asked for our
:32:24. > :32:27.assistance. This came up a lot in the debate on Friday, and the Prime
:32:28. > :32:33.Minister explained, similar to what I have just been saying, that there
:32:34. > :32:37.is not a political consensus about Syria in the House of Commons. When
:32:38. > :32:40.we did it last year, we were defeated, and it was described by
:32:41. > :32:46.all commentators as a huge blow to the government and to our foreign
:32:47. > :32:49.policy. So, we will bring forward proposals when there is a majority
:32:50. > :32:55.in this country to do so in the House of Commons. Professor Michael
:32:56. > :33:01.Clarke, one of the world top experts on military strategy and history, he
:33:02. > :33:06.says there are very few important IS targets in northern Iraq, that they
:33:07. > :33:10.are all in Syria, and we are limiting ourselves to the periphery
:33:11. > :33:14.of the campaign. First of all, just because you are not doing everything
:33:15. > :33:18.does not mean you should not do something. Secondly, the United
:33:19. > :33:22.States and other countries are engaged in the action against
:33:23. > :33:27.targets in Syria. This is a coalition effort, with people doing
:33:28. > :33:31.different things. Thirdly, if we were to put their proposal to the
:33:32. > :33:35.House of Commons tomorrow, and it was defeated, we would not have
:33:36. > :33:40.achieved a great deal. You do not know it would have been defeated.
:33:41. > :33:44.The Labour Party has given no indication they would have supported
:33:45. > :33:48.that. So, you are hostage to the Labour Party? We have to win a
:33:49. > :33:52.democratic vote in the House of Commons, and the Labour Party is a
:33:53. > :33:57.very large part of the House of Commons. You are asking us to pursue
:33:58. > :34:02.a policy which at the moment could be defeated in Parliament. Is it not
:34:03. > :34:07.embarrassing to be on the wrong side of so many of these military
:34:08. > :34:12.experts? Why should we trust the judgment of here today, gone
:34:13. > :34:18.tomorrow, politicians? We have the military experts with us now. We
:34:19. > :34:22.have a national security council, we do not have sofa government, unlike
:34:23. > :34:26.the last government. The national security council is chaired by the
:34:27. > :34:33.Prime Minister. Alongside the Chief of Defence Staff and the heads of
:34:34. > :34:38.the intelligence agencies. And we take decisions together with the
:34:39. > :34:43.people who have the information now. So, you will know what British
:34:44. > :34:48.and American intelligence says about Syria. The Prime Minister has said
:34:49. > :34:52.there is a danger that the British-born jihadists will come
:34:53. > :34:55.back and attack us. But the intelligence reports which you will
:34:56. > :35:00.have seen are clear - Al-Qaeda and its associates are selecting,
:35:01. > :35:06.indoctrinating and training jihadists in Syria, not Iraq. Does
:35:07. > :35:13.that not make the Syrian exclusion even more ludicrous? I cannot
:35:14. > :35:18.comment on intelligence. Is the situation in Syria I direct threat
:35:19. > :35:24.to this country? Yes, it is. Have we excluded action? No, we haven't
:35:25. > :35:29.Could you come back to the House? The Prime Minister said, it was in
:35:30. > :35:32.the motion put to the House of Commons, that if we want to take
:35:33. > :35:37.action in Syria, we will come back to the House of Commons. But we have
:35:38. > :35:43.not taken any decision about that and we would not do so if we thought
:35:44. > :35:46.we were going to be defeated again. The government supports US strikes
:35:47. > :35:53.on Syria, show you must relieve they are legal. Either way the legal
:35:54. > :35:57.basis differs from one country to another, according to their reading
:35:58. > :36:02.of international law. But you have supported it. We do believe that
:36:03. > :36:07.they and Arab countries are taking action legally and we support their
:36:08. > :36:13.action. But I understand your legitimate questions. But it comes
:36:14. > :36:20.back to your basic question, why in Iraq and not Syria. Nonetheless it
:36:21. > :36:25.is important to take action in Iraq. We are also engaged in Syria
:36:26. > :36:31.in building up the political strength of the more moderate
:36:32. > :36:34.opposition and in trying to bring about a peace agreement, and we do
:36:35. > :36:42.not exclude action in Syria in the future. If we propose doing
:36:43. > :36:46.something, then we ask for the specific legal advice. Why would you
:36:47. > :36:51.not ask for the legal advice anyway? Because you have to be sure
:36:52. > :36:55.of the legal advice at the time and also we do not comment on the advice
:36:56. > :37:00.given to us by the Law officers Mr Blair ended up publishing his. That
:37:01. > :37:05.was because there was a huge legal dispute. So you have not had legal
:37:06. > :37:10.advice yet that Britain attacking Syria would be legal? The legal
:37:11. > :37:13.situation is unlikely to be the barrier in this case, let me put it
:37:14. > :37:23.that way. Within international law, you can act in the event of extreme
:37:24. > :37:26.humanitarian distress and elective self-defence, so one can imagine
:37:27. > :37:28.strong legal justification, but of course, we will take the legal
:37:29. > :37:30.advice at the time. watching The Sunday Politics. We say
:37:31. > :37:35.goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who Scotland. Coming up here in 20
:37:36. > :37:52.minutes, The Week Ahead. More on the Tories `
:37:53. > :37:57.have they done anything to persuade people to vote out the red rose of
:37:58. > :38:00.Labour in any of our key marginals? I think that people feel thd same
:38:01. > :38:03.as they did before, I don't think a lot has happened to
:38:04. > :38:07.change it in the last four xears, so Well, as we've been hearing,
:38:08. > :38:10.the Conservative Conference in Birmingham has got
:38:11. > :38:13.off to a very rocky start, mainly due to the influence
:38:14. > :38:15.of the UK Independence Partx. So we've got representatives
:38:16. > :38:17.from both parties here This week the Conservative LP
:38:18. > :38:21.for Macclesfield, David Rutley. And UKIP's Euro MP for
:38:22. > :38:39.North West England, Louise Bours. David, you need to get over to
:38:40. > :38:46.bombing quickly before you lose another one, do you not?!
:38:47. > :38:50.Of course this defection is frustrating but to my mind ht is
:38:51. > :38:54.completely counter`productive. These guys wanted a referendum for Europe
:38:55. > :39:01.and the best chance for that is what the Tories won in the next dlection.
:39:02. > :39:05.It is terribly damaging. It is not terribly damaging, we have ` strong
:39:06. > :39:09.agenda, you have heard elder about what we are doing. We are gdtting
:39:10. > :39:15.people into homes and apprenticeships and building on our
:39:16. > :39:18.economic success. Any more LPs in the North West heading your way I
:39:19. > :39:24.could not possibly comment `t the moment, but one thing is for
:39:25. > :39:28.certain, even MPs within thd Conservative Party and their own
:39:29. > :39:31.body, they are not trusting David Cameron on the issue of Europe and I
:39:32. > :39:34.believe that this may open the floodgates. We will see.
:39:35. > :39:36.And we'll be hearing from the UKIP leader Nigel Farage shortly.
:39:37. > :39:40.But if the Tories want to whn next year's general election, thdy'll not
:39:41. > :39:43.only have to see off UKIP, but also win some of the North West seats
:39:44. > :39:48.I've been back to Bolton West to see if David Cameron's partx is
:39:49. > :39:55.We offer you today unique phctures of a fire brigade on a train, taken
:39:56. > :40:00.In the late 1880s, Horwich was fired up by heavy
:40:01. > :40:11.Well, the smoke and steam from these old locomotive works may have
:40:12. > :40:13.cleared years ago, but therd's still plenty of political energy here
:40:14. > :40:15.I covered this constituency back in 2010.
:40:16. > :40:21.The Tories were expected to win but Labour held on.
:40:22. > :40:28.Bolton West came to symbolise wider Tory defeat at the general dlection.
:40:29. > :40:31.Labour's majority was cut to just 92.
:40:32. > :40:37.It remains the Tories' best chance of gaining a North West seat.
:40:38. > :40:42.It's difficult to say though how you can win, isn't it?
:40:43. > :40:44.I think we have a perfectly reasonable chance here.
:40:45. > :40:51.But last time when it was very close,
:40:52. > :40:54.Gordon Brown was a very unpopular Prime Minister, Ed Miliband is not
:40:55. > :40:57.as unpopular as that, so it will be more difficult for you, not easier.
:40:58. > :41:00.This time we have been in power it will be five years
:41:01. > :41:03.by the general election, and we have got that record
:41:04. > :41:12.If you still want to find stream trains in Horwich, you need
:41:13. > :41:15.the model shop, where the owner keeps an eye on what's going on
:41:16. > :41:18.I think a lot of people in Bolton are disillusioned with what
:41:19. > :41:21.the Labour Council ` I know you were on about the MP ` has done
:41:22. > :41:25.in the town, but I don't thhnk the Conservatives will get hn.
:41:26. > :41:30.And at the deli opposite, Amanda Biggs reckons her customers'
:41:31. > :41:33.I think you will see a very similar result as yot saw
:41:34. > :41:37.the last time, I do not think there will be a lot of change.
:41:38. > :41:39.So another tight result and why do you think that?
:41:40. > :41:42.I think that people feel thd same as they did before,
:41:43. > :41:46.I don't think a lot has happened to change it in the last four xears, so
:41:47. > :41:49.But the Labour MP's certainly warmed some voters up
:41:50. > :41:53.And she's now campaigning for a second term.
:41:54. > :41:56.I hope it is going to be easier but I am not complacent.
:41:57. > :42:00.Do you get many voters who say to you,
:42:01. > :42:07.I love Ed Miliband and I think that if only people met
:42:08. > :42:10.him, then they would see th`t he is our future prime minister.
:42:11. > :42:13.Ed has had a really bad press and this will be a dirty eldction.
:42:14. > :42:16.The Tories will do every thhng they possibly can to undermine L`bour,
:42:17. > :42:23.I think however we can see what David Cameron has been doing
:42:24. > :42:27.as a prime minister ` chill`xing while the country has gone to pot.
:42:28. > :42:30.But nobody including David Cameron will be relaxed about the political
:42:31. > :42:41.And we're also joined now from Birmingham by the Consdrvative
:42:42. > :42:43.campaigner David Skelton, whose organisation Renewal is tryhng to
:42:44. > :42:46.win back support in the North, and here in the studio by Dr Rob Ford
:42:47. > :42:54.from the University of Manchester who's an expert on UKIP.
:42:55. > :43:00.David Skelton, let me begin with you first. You were with us last year
:43:01. > :43:03.got me about the Conservative challenge here in the North West of
:43:04. > :43:11.England, have they made progress in the preceding yet? Good morning I
:43:12. > :43:14.think they have made great progress. Firstly something we all agree on is
:43:15. > :43:21.that the Labour Party have fallen out of touch with voters and the
:43:22. > :43:26.North West, but since last xear we have created 74,000 new jobs and
:43:27. > :43:30.50,000 new businesses. I spoke last year about how the Conservatives
:43:31. > :43:36.should go for a rise in the minimum wage, they have done that. George
:43:37. > :43:40.Osborne has articulated that the North West is a powerhouse.
:43:41. > :43:44.Interestingly, the Labour ldader of Manchester Council has said that the
:43:45. > :43:48.Conservatives have had more of a vision and been better to ddal with
:43:49. > :43:52.in terms of the economy and the North West than the Labour Party has
:43:53. > :43:56.through the years. I am not sure everyone would share your analysis
:43:57. > :44:00.with the position of the Labour Party in the North West, but putting
:44:01. > :44:05.that to one side, as it's not all too little, too late? Not at all.
:44:06. > :44:10.For the first time in decadds the governing party has a compelling
:44:11. > :44:15.vision for the future of thd North West economy. It is doing concrete
:44:16. > :44:19.and positive steps to build up the economy here. It is helping the
:44:20. > :44:22.lowest paid as well, not just increasing the minimum wage but
:44:23. > :44:26.taking 3 million of the poorest people out of tax altogether,
:44:27. > :44:29.getting a tax cuts to peopld across the region, which is really
:44:30. > :44:35.important to improve the life chances of people in the region and
:44:36. > :44:39.also ensuring that young people in the North West are given thd best
:44:40. > :44:45.possible quality of education. That is something that was forgotten
:44:46. > :44:48.about by the Labour Party for a long time. Louise, let me bring xou in. A
:44:49. > :44:53.positive view of the Tory p`rty in this region, but you would `ctually
:44:54. > :44:58.say that you are able to whdn over Conservative forgers. I am not sure
:44:59. > :45:05.what part of the North West they are talking about? Labour Party and UKIP
:45:06. > :45:14.dominate this region. If yot want to get out the Labour Party, you have
:45:15. > :45:20.to vote UKIP, there is .14 Lib Dems or Conservative. `` there is no
:45:21. > :45:25.point in voting Lib Dems or they can serve the party. Our messagd
:45:26. > :45:34.resonates with grassroots Conservative forgers. What lessage,
:45:35. > :45:38.I'll use the subtly talking about? All of our messages. We do not have
:45:39. > :45:42.wet system for our councillors and that is why we are having so many
:45:43. > :45:49.defections recently from thd Conservative Party. You havd only
:45:50. > :45:53.had two. I have been canned and sing and speaking to hundreds of people
:45:54. > :45:58.and only one person mentiondd UKIP and the whole thing. There hs no sea
:45:59. > :46:03.change toward UKIP, of course they will flatter and do well in the
:46:04. > :46:08.European elections. But we `re taking forward a coherent strategy
:46:09. > :46:11.in the North West to take the economy forward and create jobs and
:46:12. > :46:17.reduce the dependency on thd public sector. Macclesfield, like ly own of
:46:18. > :46:23.Congleton, we know they are very blue and that is a different thing.
:46:24. > :46:30.You are arguing about a sea change, I do not say that. Let me bring in
:46:31. > :46:34.Dr Rob Ford, really you place the battle between UKIP and the Tories
:46:35. > :46:39.in this region? It is correct to split out the differences. @nd the
:46:40. > :46:43.more rural areas, the Conservative vote is toughening up and the UKIP
:46:44. > :46:47.message does not resonate whth the traditional or better off voters.
:46:48. > :46:52.The damage done to the Conservative's image and thd North
:46:53. > :46:57.West during the Thatcher and major governments, they have never
:46:58. > :47:07.recovered from that. UKIP is the only available opposition to the
:47:08. > :47:12.Labour Party in certain cithes. I do not think that Conservative Party
:47:13. > :47:16.can't really do better than the North West than previously `nd able
:47:17. > :47:21.struggle in certain areas. @ large section of the Liberal Democrat vote
:47:22. > :47:27.that was strong in certain `reas has completely gone over to the Labour
:47:28. > :47:31.Party. Not many conservativd MPs are contesting those areas eithdr.
:47:32. > :47:36.Should you not have one Bolton West last time and you did not? One of
:47:37. > :47:40.the lessons we have learned from Scotland is that you must appeal not
:47:41. > :47:48.just to the heart, but to the head. It requires a common`sense `pproach
:47:49. > :47:53.with a clear and economic plan. The Labour Party and UKIP do not have
:47:54. > :47:59.clear strategies. Of course we do! You cannot trust Labour or Duke on
:48:00. > :48:04.the economy. That is our message. Let me bring backend David Skelton,
:48:05. > :48:12.do you think the government comes across and the Conservative Party
:48:13. > :48:19.comes across as Northern? `` let me bring back in David Skelton. Yes, I
:48:20. > :48:23.think it does. But you have very few voices in government from that
:48:24. > :48:30.region? You have a negative point of view. As does UKIP. We are
:48:31. > :48:37.increasing the minimum wage, not abolishing it. Sorry, David we will
:48:38. > :48:44.have to be that discussion there for the moment, sorry to cut yot off.
:48:45. > :48:46.As we've mentioned, Louise has just come back from Doncastdr.
:48:47. > :48:49.And before he set off to reveal their latest signing, the p`rty s
:48:50. > :48:52.leader Nigel Farage spoke to our reporter Liz Wallace at Westminster.
:48:53. > :48:54.Liz asked him why, European elections aside, UKIP hasn't made
:48:55. > :49:00.the same breakthrough here `s in other parts of the country.
:49:01. > :49:02.One thing I found with the Wythenshawe by`election
:49:03. > :49:05.which was fought before Chrhstmas, was that there are parts
:49:06. > :49:08.of the North West where people are not that familiar with UKIP.
:49:09. > :49:09.And remember, political parties are voluntary organisations,
:49:10. > :49:12.it takes time to build up voluntary structures, it takes time to find
:49:13. > :49:15.the right people to stand as candidates in local elections.
:49:16. > :49:20.We do have a by`election coling up, of course, which will make puite
:49:21. > :49:22.a big impact on what our prospects are next year.
:49:23. > :49:25.But I would remind you that in the European elections wd did
:49:26. > :49:28.return three MEPs, so it's not as if there isn't a UKIP vote hn
:49:29. > :49:35.Isn't what we saw in Sale E`st and Wythenshawe telling us that
:49:36. > :49:40.you're more likely just to deliver a Labour majority?
:49:41. > :49:43.No, we take far more votes from Labour in the North of Engl`nd than
:49:44. > :49:47.And also, one of the facts that peopld haven't
:49:48. > :49:50.really priced into is we take a lot of votes from nonvoters too,
:49:51. > :49:54.so to try to predict what the impact of UKIP will be on the other
:49:55. > :49:57.parties next year, I think `t this stage, is virtually impossible.
:49:58. > :50:00.Which of your policies do you think are going to particularly appeal to
:50:01. > :50:03.Well, I think the idea that we want peopld...
:50:04. > :50:08.The idea that nurses, for example, have been dragged
:50:09. > :50:16.But I have a hunch, I have ` hunch that by the time the general
:50:17. > :50:19.election comes along next ydar, that actually immigration whll be
:50:20. > :50:23.This idea of controlling our borders properly will bd
:50:24. > :50:35.the number one issue and UKHP is the only party offering a solution.
:50:36. > :50:44.Dr Rob Ford, what did you m`ke of that? I think Nigel Farage lade a
:50:45. > :50:47.number of rather good points. He is correct that it is unpredictable and
:50:48. > :50:54.you can take votes from in this part of the country. It will varx from
:50:55. > :50:56.seat to seat. He has not buhlt up local routes that they need to break
:50:57. > :51:01.through fear. One thing I would disagree with him on however as I am
:51:02. > :51:08.not sure that the vote for TKIP peer is based on policy. A lot of it and
:51:09. > :51:11.you saw that in Nigel Faragd's speech in the conference in
:51:12. > :51:22.Doncaster is about mobilising disaffection or resentment to
:51:23. > :51:29.dominant Labour governments and councils. They are trying to provide
:51:30. > :51:34.a different voice. Do you not face the problem with the UKIP that they
:51:35. > :51:37.could take small chunks of xour vote be and you cannot wind back those
:51:38. > :51:45.voters? That could happen to the Labour Party as well. Yes, but it
:51:46. > :51:49.seems to be affecting the Tory party more? I believe it is happening to
:51:50. > :51:55.both parties. We must also consider marginal seats, we have a strong
:51:56. > :52:00.chance to make inroads in cdrtain seeds and to hold onto other seats
:52:01. > :52:06.like Weaver Vale where we h`ve really strong candidate and MPs Why
:52:07. > :52:15.do you think some of your voters are moving into UKIP? There is `lways
:52:16. > :52:23.the chance of a protest votd. This is a very long protest vote then,
:52:24. > :52:31.David! How ridiculous! We h`ve been doing this for some time. You did OK
:52:32. > :52:37.in the European elections. Did we not when some of the Europe`n
:52:38. > :52:44.elections? Well, actually, xou did not wind, the Labour Party one. Yes,
:52:45. > :52:48.but we won overall in the Etropean election, regardless of how you try
:52:49. > :52:57.to spend that. Common sense will prevail in the election in Lay. Do
:52:58. > :53:02.people want Ed Miliband Davhd Cameron? Most people believd that
:53:03. > :53:09.David Cameron is the better choice. If you want out of Europe, xou must
:53:10. > :53:14.vote the Conservatives? You can argue that but the fact of the
:53:15. > :53:17.matter is that we know that he is pro`European, he will campahgn to
:53:18. > :53:23.stay within Europe with EB negotiation. That is his own
:53:24. > :53:30.business. He will put it to the people. Douglas Carswell st`ted he
:53:31. > :53:34.defected because he was told by Cameron's own people that they will
:53:35. > :53:38.give people just enough to keep us there, people do not trust David
:53:39. > :53:41.Cameron. Dr Rob Ford, thank you for coming in. We will have to leave it
:53:42. > :53:47.there, sorry. Well, he may have forgotten
:53:48. > :53:49.immigration and the bit about the budget deficit, btt
:53:50. > :53:52.Ed Miliband did remember thd NHS. He put it back to the centrd of
:53:53. > :53:55.political debate during the Labour This week, the city itself
:53:56. > :53:58.extended a consultation over Our reporter Kevin Fitzpatrhck's
:53:59. > :54:11.been asking how easy it is to change We will transform the NHS. There
:54:12. > :54:15.were ten year plan to transform the NHS is based on people before
:54:16. > :54:20.profits. Labour were desper`te to show they are the only partx to be
:54:21. > :54:28.trusted with the future of the NHS. We will free the NHS from D`vid
:54:29. > :54:34.Cameron's toxic market. It hs the first thing that we will do Here in
:54:35. > :54:39.Manchester the Labour conference has moved on, they have made colmerce is
:54:40. > :54:42.on how they will improve thd NHS but you can be sure that the other
:54:43. > :54:49.parties will have their plans, so how much of a political challenge is
:54:50. > :54:53.this? This week a consultathon on attempts to time some hospitals in
:54:54. > :54:58.gritter Manchester M2 speci`list centres was extended amid criticism
:54:59. > :55:05.that the plan his Ford and the consultation of ?4 million hs a
:55:06. > :55:13.waste of money. Let's will be put at risk, patients will be unsafe and
:55:14. > :55:17.have to travel further afield. It is absolutely not about closing A
:55:18. > :55:21.departments or downgrading them it is about upgrading emergencx care
:55:22. > :55:26.right across Greater Manchester Hospitals specialising is nothing
:55:27. > :55:30.new but the controversy over the Healthier Together proposals
:55:31. > :55:36.highlight problems when changes to the NHS are considered. These could
:55:37. > :55:40.be costly and very expensivd decisions. When you set abott
:55:41. > :55:44.changing things that changed the basis of the service being delivered
:55:45. > :55:51.to people, people get exerchsed about that. We spend ?110 bhllion
:55:52. > :55:58.each year on the NHS and employs 1.3 million people, so change is big. As
:55:59. > :56:02.a British institution held dear by the electorate, politicians know
:56:03. > :56:05.they have to think big and take Caerphilly. The current
:56:06. > :56:09.government's reorganisation is well underway. How the parties
:56:10. > :56:14.communicate future plans for it could be crucial in terms of how the
:56:15. > :56:23.secure votes next May. `` Caerphilly. ``
:56:24. > :56:31.how do you see the changes for the NHS?
:56:32. > :56:34.We have to reconfigure the NHS and make sure there is better
:56:35. > :56:38.integration between health services and other services, but that will be
:56:39. > :56:44.challenging. But I think people will accept it. The NHS is a weak spot
:56:45. > :56:50.for the Conservative Party? I do not agree with that. We will put in more
:56:51. > :56:55.money. But it remains your weak point? People must understand that
:56:56. > :57:01.we are serious about the NHS and we have spent 12 point 7 billion more
:57:02. > :57:06.pounds the side of the parlhament and we are trying to make pdople
:57:07. > :57:11.realise that we are trying to reconfigure it and making it better
:57:12. > :57:14.for everyone. The health care professionals need to make sure that
:57:15. > :57:18.the vital services are in place to help gain the trust of the public
:57:19. > :57:23.and then figure out how we can get more care out into the commtnities.
:57:24. > :57:31.Louise, you want privatisathon of the NHS, you not? No, we do not
:57:32. > :57:39.Then why did Paul Nuthall criticise it and congratulate the govdrnment
:57:40. > :57:44.for privatising part of it? I am the health spokesperson and that anyone
:57:45. > :57:48.listens to my own speech, I said that Paul is entitled to his own
:57:49. > :57:52.opinion, however, what I made very clear in my own speech that I gave
:57:53. > :57:57.to conference is that we must keep the NHS free at the point of
:57:58. > :58:01.delivery and needs, we abolhsh the democracy and make sure that people
:58:02. > :58:06.take responsibility for the massive errors that have occurred over the
:58:07. > :58:14.past years. Does Paul Stull hold these views? Those are his personal
:58:15. > :58:20.views, I cannot speak for hhm. `` does Paul still hold? Anyond who
:58:21. > :58:28.wants to listen to my speech, we will stand shoulder to shoulder with
:58:29. > :58:31.when McCluskie and Unite. Hd wrote to me and I held up a letter for
:58:32. > :58:34.everyone to see at conference. Time for the rest
:58:35. > :58:36.of the week's news now. Here's Gill Dummigan
:58:37. > :58:39.with 60 Seconds. A vigil was held for Salford taxi
:58:40. > :58:42.driver Alan Henning who's bding held Friends have called
:58:43. > :58:51.on the Government to do mord. to pull out all the stops and do
:58:52. > :58:58.whatever they can. A councillor banned
:58:59. > :59:00.from talking to female colldagues Fellow councillors in Wigan had
:59:01. > :59:04.called on Robert Bleakley to resign for using his taxpayer`funddd mobile
:59:05. > :59:06.to call sex chat lines Winston Churchill was a "racist
:59:07. > :59:12.and white supremacist", according to the Labour candidate for Wyre and
:59:13. > :59:15.Preston North, Benjamin Whittingham. His party won't take any action
:59:16. > :59:18.but the local Conservative LP said Politics is about argument `nd
:59:19. > :59:31.debate, not about smear and insult. The city council's given Liverpool
:59:32. > :59:33.Football Club permission to And Cumbria's home to
:59:34. > :59:37.the country's "unhappiest" place: Barrow`in`Furness ranked bottom
:59:38. > :59:53.in a Government survey. So, Belize, in the unlikely event
:59:54. > :59:57.that you were advising the Conservative Party, what wotld you
:59:58. > :00:05.tell them that they must do at this conference? `` Louise. I do not
:00:06. > :00:09.think anything will stop thd fracture of their own party. David
:00:10. > :00:11.Cameron must take responsibhlity for that and I believe what we will stop
:00:12. > :00:13.the fracture of their own p`rty David Cameron must take
:00:14. > :00:19.responsibility for that and I believed what do not get
:00:20. > :00:24.overconfident! We have a positive agenda for the United kingdom. The
:00:25. > :00:30.economy is recovering and wd do not want to put that at risk but we will
:00:31. > :00:31.try to make a better and more secure future for Britain within the
:00:32. > :00:33.Conservative Party. And next week we'll be lookhng ahead
:00:34. > :00:36.to the Liberal Democrat Conference and also meeting all five c`ndidates
:00:37. > :00:39.for the by`election in Heywood For now, thank you to my gudsts
:00:40. > :00:40.Louise Bours and David Rutldy. My thanks to you both. Andrew, back
:00:41. > :01:01.to you. Here we are back in Birmingham with
:01:02. > :01:06.the Conservatives. The Tories thought all they had to do was come
:01:07. > :01:12.here, have a rally, a jamboree, and off they go to the races, or in
:01:13. > :01:17.their case the general election Two races later it hasn't quite worked
:01:18. > :01:23.out like that. Let's look at the state of this conference as it gets
:01:24. > :01:29.under way. On our panel we are joined by David Davis. You wrote an
:01:30. > :01:34.article in the Mail on Sunday this morning which was an Exocet at the
:01:35. > :01:41.heart of David Cameron's modernising strategy. It was designed to act as
:01:42. > :01:46.a lever. It was designed to cause trouble. No, we are in the running
:01:47. > :01:51.for the next general election. One of the characteristics of having a
:01:52. > :01:55.five year fixed term Parliaments is that the last year is about
:01:56. > :02:02.campaigning. It is important we beat Miliband, he would be a disastrous
:02:03. > :02:08.Prime Minister. You think the whole modernising strategy was a wrong
:02:09. > :02:25.turn, that is what the article said. Yes. Has that opened the door to
:02:26. > :02:34.UKIP? It has left a lot of people disillusioned with politics. What do
:02:35. > :02:53.you do to get it right? Who was listening to you?
:02:54. > :03:11.Frankly we need to take a more robust series of policies. How many
:03:12. > :03:20.more UKIP defections will there be? I do not think there will be any
:03:21. > :03:24.more. I would be very surprised I know Nigel Farage has a brilliant
:03:25. > :03:29.sense of timing, but I do not think he has got the resources to do that,
:03:30. > :03:34.namely, another Tory MP. So it could be another Labour one, maybe? I
:03:35. > :03:42.think an awful lot will hinge on what happens in Rochester. Because
:03:43. > :03:45.that is not a slam dunk. Clack and unfortunately looks like it will be
:03:46. > :03:58.a walkover for them. But Rochester is a different scene. And so, there
:03:59. > :04:03.could be a kind of Newark situation. When I campaigned in Newark, two
:04:04. > :04:08.labour families I spoke to said they would vote Tory to keep UKIP out.
:04:09. > :04:15.How bad was the Labour conference last week? One politician said after
:04:16. > :04:19.he had a really bad performance that his television performance was
:04:20. > :04:23.suboptimal. I think that would be a good way of describing Ed
:04:24. > :04:27.Miliband's speech. The problem for Ed Miliband in memorising speeches
:04:28. > :04:31.is that we are not auditioning for a new lines Olivier, we're rehearsing
:04:32. > :04:34.for Prime Minister. He failed the Laurence Olivier test, and therefore
:04:35. > :04:39.failed the Prime Minister Laurence Olivier test, and therefore
:04:40. > :04:43.forgetting to mention the deficit. He spoke from the heart about issues
:04:44. > :04:49.which she really cares about, the NHS, the rupture between wages and
:04:50. > :04:52.inflation, and forgot the deficit. Those issues are important, but if
:04:53. > :04:56.you are not addressing things like the deficit, then people are really
:04:57. > :05:01.not going to be listening to your messages on the areas that matter.
:05:02. > :05:08.Was it bad? Yes, suboptimal, I am afraid. I hope that this ends the
:05:09. > :05:11.nonsense of leaders wasting their time learning speeches off by
:05:12. > :05:16.heart. You could learn a Shakespeare play in the time it takes to learn
:05:17. > :05:20.70 minutes of a leader's speech I think we should just go back to
:05:21. > :05:24.sensible reading what you have written. You can then alter it just
:05:25. > :05:28.beforehand. A lot of things were changing, which is not surprising,
:05:29. > :05:32.but he did not have time to learn it. It is a silly gimmick, it worked
:05:33. > :05:37.once or twice, but that is enough for that. Despite some of the
:05:38. > :05:40.derision of Mr Miliband, the Tories are flat-lining in the sun decks,
:05:41. > :05:46.they have been there almost since the disastrous budget, the
:05:47. > :05:51.omnishambles, of 2012, Labour is still several points ahead, nothing
:05:52. > :05:55.seems to change? And David Cameron is now the leader in trouble. It is
:05:56. > :06:04.almost as if a week is a long time in politics. I thought the Labour
:06:05. > :06:09.and friends was Saab -- sub-suboptimal. It was so parochial.
:06:10. > :06:12.You could've watched the top speeches without knowing that the
:06:13. > :06:18.borders of Ukraine, and Iraq and Syria were in question. I hope,
:06:19. > :06:21.because of Friday's discussion in Parliament, that this conference
:06:22. > :06:26.will raise its sights a bit, and we will have something in Cameron's
:06:27. > :06:30.speech, possibly that of George Osborne as well, which is a bit more
:06:31. > :06:34.global. People hoped UKIP had gone away during the summer, people at
:06:35. > :06:42.this conference, I mean, but it is back with a bang. They are still up
:06:43. > :06:48.at 15% in the polls, the Tories languishing on 32 - what is going to
:06:49. > :06:55.change? UKIP won 3% of the last election, I always thought they
:06:56. > :07:00.would get about 6%. If, by the turn of the year, they are still in
:07:01. > :07:04.double digits, I think at that point you can begin to wake of his
:07:05. > :07:08.party's chances of winning. I have had three people say to me so far,
:07:09. > :07:12.come election day, it will be fine, people will sober up and so on. It
:07:13. > :07:18.will be all right on the night is not a very good strategy, frankly.
:07:19. > :07:24.When they get past 5%, I start to bite into our 3-way marginal seats,
:07:25. > :07:28.with liberals, Labour and Tories, and we have got about 60 of those in
:07:29. > :07:32.the Midlands and the north, so it really is quite serious. And if I
:07:33. > :07:38.may steal one of David's lines, when you were interviewing Mark Reckless
:07:39. > :07:42.this morning, and was not talking about the EU referendum, he was
:07:43. > :07:45.talking about how he felt he had broken his pledges to the electorate
:07:46. > :07:49.because the Conservatives he said had failed on immigration and on the
:07:50. > :07:53.deficit, and those sort of bread-and-butter issues could be
:07:54. > :07:57.really potent on the doorstep, which means the Tories have got to run the
:07:58. > :08:01.kind of campaign they ran in Newark, which is a real centre ground,
:08:02. > :08:04.Reddan but a campaign, in which they would hope to get Liberal Democrat
:08:05. > :08:09.and Labour voters out to vote tactically against UKIP. I think
:08:10. > :08:15.today we have seen Cameron been pushed to the right. He has had to
:08:16. > :08:18.say, yes, I would leave Europe, which he has never said before. It
:08:19. > :08:23.is a huge stepping stone, a big difference. It takes the Tory party
:08:24. > :08:29.somewhere else. May be get them a lot of votes. But it has not so far.
:08:30. > :08:35.But I think it loses a lot of people. The industry organisations,
:08:36. > :08:40.for example. The prospect of going out of Europe, but is quite a fight
:08:41. > :08:48.for them. Is it not the lesson that you can out UKIP UKIP? Well, you do
:08:49. > :08:59.not need to, really. I agree, last week was sub-sub-suboptimal. Hold
:09:00. > :09:06.on, that is enough subs! I would not be crowing too much! But what I was
:09:07. > :09:10.going to say, he left out something incredibly important, the deficit.
:09:11. > :09:16.But how many people outside the M25 are thinking about the deficit? One
:09:17. > :09:21.problem we face with Miliband is, he is good at politics and bad at
:09:22. > :09:23.economics, in a way. He comes up with bonkers policies which people
:09:24. > :09:29.love, price-fixing, things like that. Our problem will be about
:09:30. > :09:34.relevance on the doorstep. I do not think at the end of the day it will
:09:35. > :09:38.be about Europe. But was there not a moment of danger for you at the
:09:39. > :09:40.conference, that one area where Miliband is potentially vulnerable
:09:41. > :09:45.is not having credible team with business. Who turned up at the
:09:46. > :09:51.Labour conference, the head of Airbus, saying, we have got to stay
:09:52. > :09:56.in the European Union? The danger is that Europe allows the Labour Party
:09:57. > :10:02.to gain credibility with business. There is some truth in that. But we
:10:03. > :10:04.are in effectively the home straight, the last six months, and
:10:05. > :10:09.people will be fussing about prices and jobs. Very parochial. They will
:10:10. > :10:15.not be saying, what does the CBI think about this? It is, what is
:10:16. > :10:22.happening to me, in my town, in my factory, in my office. That is where
:10:23. > :10:29.the fight will be. Is it not the truth that if UKIP stays anywhere
:10:30. > :10:33.near around this level of support, it is impossible for the Tories to
:10:34. > :10:37.win an overall majority? I would say, if it is this level of support,
:10:38. > :10:42.it is impossible for the Tories to finish as the biggest party, even in
:10:43. > :10:47.a hung Parliament. The Tories keep trying to win back UKIP voters with
:10:48. > :10:51.cold logic - witches it makes Ed Miliband becoming prime minister
:10:52. > :10:55.more likely. UKIP is basically a vessel phenomenon, coming from the
:10:56. > :10:59.gut, and David Cameron has never found the emotional pitch in his
:11:00. > :11:03.rhetoric to meet that. I wonder whether we will see that moron
:11:04. > :11:16.Wednesday. It is just not him. I hope we do. -- more on Wednesday. I
:11:17. > :11:19.hope you're right that we do actually engage on emotion. So far
:11:20. > :11:24.with UKIP, our policy has been to insult them. It does not work. I
:11:25. > :11:29.know that from my constituency. We have to say to them, there is a
:11:30. > :11:32.wider Tory family, we understand you are patria, we understand you are
:11:33. > :11:37.worried about your family, and we do the same. What does it tell us about
:11:38. > :11:40.the state of the Tories, seven months from the election, the
:11:41. > :11:43.economy is going well, they are not that far behind Labour, and yet
:11:44. > :11:48.there is all sorts of leadership speculation? It is extraordinary.
:11:49. > :11:57.They are doing well, they are in with a shout. It depends. UKIP has
:11:58. > :12:04.to be kept below 9% of. -- below 9%. I think David Cameron is one of
:12:05. > :12:09.the few who speaks human, actually talks quite well to people and does
:12:10. > :12:13.not look like a swivel-eyed loons. Whereas a lot of people behind him
:12:14. > :12:18.do. You look at Duncan Smith and Eric Pickles, they are all kind of
:12:19. > :12:26.driven, ideological men, with very right-wing policies. And nice
:12:27. > :12:30.people! Don't hold back! He is not the Addams family, he is basically
:12:31. > :12:35.quite human. I think a lot of people do not realise how ideological he is
:12:36. > :12:40.himself and how well he has led his party in the direction they all want
:12:41. > :12:43.to go. You go on about him being this metropolitan moderniser, I do
:12:44. > :12:47.not think that is what he is, really. It may not be visible from
:12:48. > :12:52.the guardian offices in the metropolis! Everybody where you are,
:12:53. > :12:58.Polly, is a metropolitan moderniser. And where you are, too. That is the
:12:59. > :13:01.nature of living in London. The trouble is, when these people get
:13:02. > :13:06.into Westminster, they are part of Westminster, too. If you could only
:13:07. > :13:11.win by being an outsider, the moment you get in, you are done for. All
:13:12. > :13:20.teeing up nicely for Boris Johnson to be the next leader? I do not
:13:21. > :13:24.think so! The point of my Exocet, or lever, this morning, is that I think
:13:25. > :13:29.this is winnable. If we are good Tories for the next six months, we
:13:30. > :13:35.can do this. It is by denying ground to UKIP, not giving in to them, not
:13:36. > :13:40.buckling. Denying ground. Thank you to our panel. They did all right
:13:41. > :13:43.today, but the normal. That is your lot for today. I am back tomorrow.
:13:44. > :13:48.We will have live coverage of George Osborne's speech to the conference.
:13:49. > :13:52.I am back next week in Glasgow for The Sunday Politics at the Labour
:13:53. > :13:55.conference. How could you miss that? Remember, if it is Sunday it
:13:56. > :14:25.is The Sunday Politics. Bye-bye of statutory press regulation in
:14:26. > :14:39.sponge cake may be a bridge too far. I think I've overdone it
:14:40. > :14:43.with the pistachios and somehow, the custard's split,
:14:44. > :14:45.but it's too late! of statutory press regulation in
:14:46. > :14:57.sponge cake may be a bridge too far.