:00:37. > :00:41.It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:42. > :00:45.Was Fidel Castro a revolutionary hero or a murderous dictator?
:00:46. > :00:49.After the Cuban leader's death, politicians divide over his legacy.
:00:50. > :00:54.Can the NHS in England find billions of pounds' worth of efficiency
:00:55. > :01:00.The Shadow Health Secretary joins me live.
:01:01. > :01:02.Should we have a second Brexit referendum on the terms
:01:03. > :01:07.of the eventual withdrawal deal that's struck with the EU?
:01:08. > :01:09.Former Lib Dem leader Paddy Ashdown and former Conservative cabinet
:01:10. > :01:11.minister Owen Paterson go head-to-head.
:01:12. > :01:33.Why Daisy could be left counting the cost. Is the county being swept
:01:34. > :01:35.And with me, Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards.
:01:36. > :01:38.They'll be tweeting throughout the programme
:01:39. > :01:45.Political leaders around the world have been reacting to the news
:01:46. > :01:47.of the death of Fidel Castro, the Cuban revolutionary who came
:01:48. > :01:51.to power in 1959 and ushered in a Marxist revolution.
:01:52. > :01:56.Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson described the former leader
:01:57. > :01:59.as an "historic if controversial figure" and said his death marked
:02:00. > :02:03.Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said Castro was "a champion of social
:02:04. > :02:06.justice" who had "seen off a lot of US presidents"
:02:07. > :02:10.President-elect Donald Trump described the former Cuban leader
:02:11. > :02:13.as a "brutal dictator", adding that he hoped his death
:02:14. > :02:17.would begin a new era "in which the wonderful Cuban people
:02:18. > :02:22.finally live in the freedom they so richly deserve".
:02:23. > :02:23.Meanwhile, the President of the European Commission,
:02:24. > :02:26.Jean-Claude Juncker, said the controversial leader
:02:27. > :02:29.was "a hero for many" but "his legacy will be judged
:02:30. > :02:44.I guess we had worked that out ourselves. What do you make of the
:02:45. > :02:49.reactions so far across the political divide? Predictable. And I
:02:50. > :02:56.noticed that Jeremy Corbyn has come in for criticism for his tribute to
:02:57. > :03:00.Castro. But I think it was the right thing for him to do. We all know he
:03:01. > :03:04.was an admirer. He could have sat there for eight hours in his house,
:03:05. > :03:07.agonising over some bland statement which didn't alienate the many
:03:08. > :03:11.people who want to wade into attacked Castro. It would have been
:03:12. > :03:16.inauthentic and would have just added to the sort of mainstream
:03:17. > :03:20.consensus, and I think he was right to say what he believed in this
:03:21. > :03:25.respect. Elsewhere, it has been wholly predictable that there would
:03:26. > :03:31.be this device, because he divided opinion in such an emotive way.
:03:32. > :03:34.Steve, I take your point about authenticity and it might have
:03:35. > :03:40.looked a bit lame for Jeremy Corbyn to pretend that he had no affection
:03:41. > :03:44.for Fidel Castro at all, but do you think he made a bit of an error
:03:45. > :03:49.dismissing Castro's record, the negative side of it as just a floor?
:03:50. > :03:55.He could have acknowledged in more elaborate terms the huge costs. He
:03:56. > :03:59.wanted to go on about the health and education, which if you actually
:04:00. > :04:01.look up the indices on that, they are good relative to other
:04:02. > :04:09.countries. But they have come at such a huge cost. He was not a
:04:10. > :04:12.champion of criminal justice. If he had done that, it would have been
:04:13. > :04:18.utterly inauthentic. He doesn't believe it. And he would have
:04:19. > :04:22.thought there would be many other people focusing on all the epic
:04:23. > :04:29.failings. So he focused on what he believed. There are times when
:04:30. > :04:33.Corbyn's prominence in the media world now as leader widens the
:04:34. > :04:41.debate in an interesting and important way. I am not aware of any
:04:42. > :04:52.criticisms that Mr Corbyn has ever announced about Mr Castro. There
:04:53. > :04:55.were four words in his statement yesterday which is spin doctor would
:04:56. > :05:04.have forced him to say, for all his flaws. He was on this Cuban
:05:05. > :05:09.solidarity committee, which didn't exist to criticise Castro. It
:05:10. > :05:13.existed to help protect Castro from those, particularly the Americans,
:05:14. > :05:17.who were trying to undermine him. And Corbyn made a big deal yesterday
:05:18. > :05:23.saying he has always called out human rights abuses all over the
:05:24. > :05:27.world. But he said that in general, I call out human rights abuses. He
:05:28. > :05:34.never said, I have called out human rights abuses in Cuba. In the weeks
:05:35. > :05:42.ahead, more will come out about what these human rights abuses were. The
:05:43. > :05:48.lid will come off what was actually happening. Some well authenticated
:05:49. > :05:54.stories are pretty horrendous. I was speaking to a journalist who was
:05:55. > :06:01.working there in the 1990s, who gave me vivid examples of that, and there
:06:02. > :06:05.will be more to come. I still go back to, when a major figure diet
:06:06. > :06:11.and you are a leader who has admired but major figure, you have to say
:06:12. > :06:28.it. That is the trap he has fallen into. He has proved every criticism
:06:29. > :06:34.that he is a duck old ideologue. But he is not the only one. Prime
:06:35. > :06:41.Minister Trudeau was so if uses that I wondered if they were going to
:06:42. > :06:45.open up a book of condolences. I think it reinforces Corbyn's failing
:06:46. > :06:49.brand. It may be authentic, but authentic isn't working for him.
:06:50. > :06:56.When I was driving, I heard Trevor Phillips, who is a Blairite, saying
:06:57. > :07:01.the record was mixed and there were a lot of things to admire as well as
:07:02. > :07:04.all the terrible things. So it is quite nuanced. But if you are a
:07:05. > :07:09.leader issuing a sound bite, there is no space for new ones. You either
:07:10. > :07:15.decide to go for the consensus, which is to set up on the whole, it
:07:16. > :07:19.was a brutal dictatorship. Or you say, here is an extraordinary figure
:07:20. > :07:24.worthy of admiration. In my view, he was right to say what he believed.
:07:25. > :07:28.There was still a dilemma for the British government over who they
:07:29. > :07:35.sent to the funeral. Do they sent nobody, do they say and Boris
:07:36. > :07:43.Johnson as a post-ironic statement? There is now a post-Castro Cuba to
:07:44. > :07:46.deal with. Trump was quite diplomatic about post-Castro Cuba.
:07:47. > :07:55.And Boris Johnson's statement was restrained. The thing about Mr
:07:56. > :07:58.Castro was the longevity, 50 years of keeping Marxism on the island.
:07:59. > :08:00.That was what made it so fascinating.
:08:01. > :08:03.Before the last election, George Osborne promised the NHS
:08:04. > :08:07.in England a real-terms funding boost of ?8 billion per year by 2020
:08:08. > :08:10.on the understanding that NHS bosses would also find ?22 billion worth
:08:11. > :08:17.Since last autumn, NHS managers have been drawing up what they're calling
:08:18. > :08:20."Sustainability and Transformation Plans" to make these savings,
:08:21. > :08:26.but some of the proposals are already running into local
:08:27. > :08:29.opposition, while Labour say they amount to huge cuts to the NHS.
:08:30. > :08:35.Help is on the way for an elderly person in need in Hertfordshire.
:08:36. > :08:38.But east of England ambulance call operators
:08:39. > :08:43.they're sending an early intervention vehicle
:08:44. > :08:50.with a council-employed occupational therapist on board.
:08:51. > :08:52.It's being piloted here for over 65s with
:08:53. > :08:58.When they arrive, a paramedic judges if the patient can be
:08:59. > :09:01.treated immediately at home without a trip to hospital.
:09:02. > :09:03.Around 80% of patients have been treated this way,
:09:04. > :09:06.taking the strain off urgently-needed hospital beds,
:09:07. > :09:12.So the early intervention team has assessed the patient and decided
:09:13. > :09:25.The key to successful integration for Hertfordshire being able
:09:26. > :09:27.to collaboratively look at how we use our resources,
:09:28. > :09:29.to have pooled budgets, to allow us to understand
:09:30. > :09:33.where spend is, and to let us make conscientious decisions about how
:09:34. > :09:37.best to use that money, to come up with ideas to problems
:09:38. > :09:40.that sit between our organisations, to look at things collaboratively.
:09:41. > :09:42.This Hertfordshire hospital is also a good example of how
:09:43. > :09:50.You won't find an A unit or overnight beds here any more.
:09:51. > :09:55.The closest ones are 20 minutes down the road.
:09:56. > :09:57.What's left is nurse-led care in an NHS-built hospital.
:09:58. > :10:01.Despite a politically toxic change, this reconfiguration went
:10:02. > :10:03.through after broad public and political consultation
:10:04. > :10:07.with hospital clinicians and GPs on board.
:10:08. > :10:11.It's a notable achievement that's surely of interest to 60% of NHS
:10:12. > :10:17.trusts in England that reported a deficit at the end of September.
:10:18. > :10:20.It's not just here that the NHS needs to save money and provide
:10:21. > :10:27.The Government is going to pour in an extra ?8 billion into the NHS
:10:28. > :10:33.in England, but it has demanded ?22 billion
:10:34. > :10:35.worth of efficiencies across the country.
:10:36. > :10:37.In order to deliver that, the NHS has created 44 health
:10:38. > :10:40.and care partnerships, and each one will provide
:10:41. > :10:44.a sustainability and transformation plan, or STP, to integrate care,
:10:45. > :10:48.provide better services and save money.
:10:49. > :10:53.So far, 33 of these 44 regional plans, drawn up by senior people
:10:54. > :10:55.in the health service and local government,
:10:56. > :11:02.The NHS has been through five years of severely constrained spending
:11:03. > :11:05.growth, and there are another 4-5 years on the way at least.
:11:06. > :11:11.STPs themselves are an attempt to deal in a planned way
:11:12. > :11:18.But with plans to close some A units and reduce the number
:11:19. > :11:23.of hospital beds, there's likely to be a tough political battle
:11:24. > :11:27.ahead, with many MPs already up in arms about proposed
:11:28. > :11:30.This Tory backbencher is concerned about the local plans for his
:11:31. > :11:38.I wouldn't call it an efficiency if you are proposing to close
:11:39. > :11:42.all of the beds which are currently provided for those coming out
:11:43. > :11:44.of the acute sector who are elderly and looking
:11:45. > :11:48.That's not a cut, it's not an efficiency saving,
:11:49. > :11:56.All 44 STPs should be published in a month's time,
:11:57. > :12:01.But even before that, they dominated this week's PMQs.
:12:02. > :12:04.The Government's sustainability and transformation plans
:12:05. > :12:09.for the National Health Service hide ?22 billion of cuts.
:12:10. > :12:12.The National Health Service is indeed looking for savings
:12:13. > :12:17.within the NHS, which will be reinvested in the NHS.
:12:18. > :12:21.There will be no escape from angry MPs for the Health Secretary either.
:12:22. > :12:24.Well, I have spoken to the Secretary of State just this week
:12:25. > :12:29.about the importance of community hospitals in general,
:12:30. > :12:35.These are proposals out to consultation.
:12:36. > :12:39.What could happen if these plans get blocked?
:12:40. > :12:43.If STPs cannot be made to work, the planned changes don't come
:12:44. > :12:48.to pass, then the NHS will see over time a sort of unplanned
:12:49. > :12:50.deterioration and services becoming unstable and service
:12:51. > :12:56.The NHS barely featured in this week's Autumn Statement
:12:57. > :13:03.but the Prime Minister insisted beforehand that STPs
:13:04. > :13:05.are in the interests of local people.
:13:06. > :13:07.Her Government's support will now be critical for NHS England
:13:08. > :13:09.to push through these controversial regional plans,
:13:10. > :13:16.which will soon face public scrutiny.
:13:17. > :13:21.We did ask the Department of Health for an interview,
:13:22. > :13:24.I've been joined by the Shadow Health Secretary,
:13:25. > :13:41.Do you accept that the NHS is capable of making ?22 billion of
:13:42. > :13:45.efficiency savings? Well, we are very sceptical, as are number of
:13:46. > :13:50.independent organisations about the ability of the NHS to find 22
:13:51. > :13:54.billion of efficiencies without that affecting front line care. When you
:13:55. > :13:57.drill down into the 22 billion, based on the information we have
:13:58. > :14:01.been given, and there hasn't been much information, we can see that
:14:02. > :14:05.some of it will come from cutting the budget which go to community
:14:06. > :14:08.pharmacies, which could lead, according to ministers, to 3000
:14:09. > :14:13.pharmacies closing, which we believe will increase demands on A and
:14:14. > :14:17.GPs, and also that a lot of these changes which are being proposed,
:14:18. > :14:25.which was the focus of the package, we think will mean service cuts at a
:14:26. > :14:31.local level. Do they? The chief executive of NHS England says these
:14:32. > :14:34.efficiency plans are "Incredibly important". He used to work from
:14:35. > :14:41.Labour. The independent King's Fund calls them "The best hope to improve
:14:42. > :14:48.health and care services. There is no plan B". On the sustainable
:14:49. > :14:51.transformation plans, which will be across England to link up physical
:14:52. > :14:56.health, mental health and social care, for those services to
:14:57. > :14:58.collaborate more closely together and move beyond the fragmented
:14:59. > :15:05.system we have at the moment is important. It seems that the ground
:15:06. > :15:09.has shifted. It has moved into filling financial gaps. As we know,
:15:10. > :15:14.the NHS is going through the biggest financial squeeze in its history. By
:15:15. > :15:18.2018, per head spending on the NHS will be falling. If you want to
:15:19. > :15:24.redesign services for the long term in a local area, you need to put the
:15:25. > :15:26.money in. So of course, getting these services working better
:15:27. > :15:30.together and having a greater strategic oversight, which we would
:15:31. > :15:35.have had if we had not got rid of strategic health authority is in the
:15:36. > :15:40.last Parliament. But this is not an attempt to save 22 billion, this is
:15:41. > :15:47.an attempt to spend 22 billion more successfully, don't you accept that?
:15:48. > :15:54.Simon Stevens said we need 8 billion, and we need to find 22
:15:55. > :15:59.billion of savings. You have to spend 22 billion more efficiently.
:16:00. > :16:04.But the Government have not given that 8 billion to the NHS which they
:16:05. > :16:10.said they would. They said they would do it by 2020. But they have
:16:11. > :16:15.changed the definitions of spending so NHS England will get 8 billion by
:16:16. > :16:21.2020, but they have cut the public health budgets by about 4 million by
:16:22. > :16:25.20 20. The budget that going to initiatives to tackle sexually
:16:26. > :16:30.transmitted diseases, to tackle smoking have been cut back but the
:16:31. > :16:34.commissioning of things like school nurses and health visitors have been
:16:35. > :16:38.cut back as well. Simon Stevens said he can only deliver that five-year
:16:39. > :16:42.project if there is a radical upgrade in public health, which the
:16:43. > :16:47.Government have failed on, and if we deal with social care, and this week
:16:48. > :16:54.there was an... I understand that, but if you don't think the
:16:55. > :17:00.efficiency drive can free up 22 billion to take us to 30 billion by
:17:01. > :17:04.2020, where would you get the money from? I have been in this post now
:17:05. > :17:07.for five or six weeks and I want to have a big consultation with
:17:08. > :17:13.everybody who works in the health sector, as well as patients, carers
:17:14. > :17:20.and families. Though you don't know? I think it would be surprised if I
:17:21. > :17:26.had an arbitrary figure this soon into the job. Your party said they
:17:27. > :17:31.expected election of spring by this year, you need to have some idea by
:17:32. > :17:36.now, you inherited a portfolio from Diane Abbott, did she have no idea?
:17:37. > :17:41.To govern is to make choices and we would make different choices. The
:17:42. > :17:48.budget last year scored billions of giveaways in things like
:17:49. > :17:59.co-operating -- corporation tax. What I do want to do... Is work on a
:18:00. > :18:05.plan and the general election, whenever it comes, next year or in
:18:06. > :18:09.2020 or in between, to have costed plan for the NHS. But your party is
:18:10. > :18:15.committed to balancing the books on current spending, that is currently
:18:16. > :18:20.John McDonnell, the Shadow Chancellor's position. What we are
:18:21. > :18:24.talking about, this extra 30 billion, that is essentially current
:18:25. > :18:28.spending so if it doesn't come from efficiency savings, where does the
:18:29. > :18:35.money come from? Some of it is also capital. Mainly current spending. If
:18:36. > :18:47.you look at the details of the OBR, they have switched a million from
:18:48. > :18:50.the capital into revenue. Why -- how do you balance spending?
:18:51. > :18:59.That is why we need to have a debate. Every time we ask for
:19:00. > :19:03.Labour's policy, we are always told me a debate. Surely it is time to
:19:04. > :19:07.give some idea of what you stand for? There's huge doubts about the
:19:08. > :19:12.Government 's policy on this. You are the opposition, how would you do
:19:13. > :19:16.it? I want to work with John McDonnell to find a package to give
:19:17. > :19:20.the NHS the money it needs, but of course our Shadow Chancellor, like
:19:21. > :19:24.any Shadow Chancellor at this stage in the cycle, will want to see what
:19:25. > :19:30.the books look like a head of an election before making commitments.
:19:31. > :19:33.I am clear that the Labour Party has to go into the next general election
:19:34. > :19:36.with a clear policy to give the NHS the funding it needs because it has
:19:37. > :19:41.been going through the largest financial squeeze in its history.
:19:42. > :19:46.You say Labour will always give the NHS the money it needs, that is not
:19:47. > :19:51.a policy, it is a blank cheque. It is an indication of our commitment
:19:52. > :19:55.to the NHS. Under this Conservative government, the NHS has been getting
:19:56. > :20:00.a 1% increase. Throughout its history it has usually have about
:20:01. > :20:05.4%. Under the last Labour government it was getting 4%, before that
:20:06. > :20:08.substantially more. We think the NHS should get more but I don't have
:20:09. > :20:17.access to the NHS books in front of me. The public thinks there needs to
:20:18. > :20:22.be more money spent on health but they also think that should go cap
:20:23. > :20:27.in hand with the money being more efficiently spent, which is what
:20:28. > :20:33.this efficiency drive is designed to release 22 billion. Do you have an
:20:34. > :20:38.efficiency drive if it is not the Government's one? Of course we
:20:39. > :20:43.agree. We agree the NHS should be more efficient, we want to see
:20:44. > :20:50.productivity increased. Do know how to do that? One way is through
:20:51. > :20:56.investments, maintenance, but there is a 5 million maintenance backlog.
:20:57. > :21:03.One of the most high risk backlogs is something like 730 million. They
:21:04. > :21:07.are going to switch the capital spend into revenue spend. I believe
:21:08. > :21:11.that when you invest in maintenance and capital in the NHS, that
:21:12. > :21:15.contribute to increasing its productivity. You are now talking
:21:16. > :21:21.about 5 billion the maintenance, the chief executive says it needs 30
:21:22. > :21:28.billion more by 2020 as a minimum so that 35 billion. You want to spend
:21:29. > :21:31.more on social care, another for 5 billion on that so we have proper
:21:32. > :21:35.care in the community. By that calculation I'm up to about 40
:21:36. > :21:40.billion, which is fine, except where do you get the and balance the
:21:41. > :21:45.account at the same time? We will have to come up with a plan for that
:21:46. > :21:48.and that's why I will work with our Shadow Treasury team to come up with
:21:49. > :21:52.that plan when they head into the general election. At the moment we
:21:53. > :21:56.are saying to the NHS, sorry, we are not going to give you the
:21:57. > :22:04.investment, which is why we are seeing patient care deteriorating.
:22:05. > :22:10.The staff are doing incredible things but 180,000 are waiting in
:22:11. > :22:13.A beyond four hours, record levels of people delayed in beds in
:22:14. > :22:17.hospitals because there are not the beds in the community to go to save
:22:18. > :22:20.the NHS needs the investment. We know that and we know the
:22:21. > :22:25.Government's response to that and many think it is inadequate. What
:22:26. > :22:28.I'm trying to get from you is what your response would be and what your
:22:29. > :22:33.reaction will be to these efficiency plans. Your colleague Heidi
:22:34. > :22:40.Alexander, she had your job earlier this year, she warned of the danger
:22:41. > :22:47.of knee jerk blanket opposition to local efficiency plans. Do you agree
:22:48. > :22:53.with that? Yes. So every time a hospital is going to close as a
:22:54. > :22:57.result of this, and some will, it is Labour default position not just
:22:58. > :23:01.going to be we are against it? That is why we are going to judge each of
:23:02. > :23:05.these sustainability plans by a number of yardsticks. We want to see
:23:06. > :23:09.if they have the support of local clinicians, we want to see if they
:23:10. > :23:12.have the support of local authorities because they now have a
:23:13. > :23:16.role in the delivery of health care. We want to see if they make the
:23:17. > :23:20.right decisions for the long-term trends in population for local area.
:23:21. > :23:24.We want to see if they integrate social care and health. If they
:23:25. > :23:29.don't and therefore you will not bank that as an efficiency saving,
:23:30. > :23:34.you will say no, that's not the way to go, you are left then with
:23:35. > :23:40.finding the alternative funding to keep the NHS going. If you are
:23:41. > :23:46.cutting beds, for example the proposal is to cut something like
:23:47. > :23:49.5000 beds in Derbyshire and if there is the space in the community sector
:23:50. > :23:54.in Derbyshire, that will cause big problems for the NHS in the long
:23:55. > :23:59.term so it is a false economy. An example like that, we would be very
:24:00. > :24:02.sceptical the plans could work. Would it not be honest, given the
:24:03. > :24:08.sums of money involved and your doubts about the efficiency plan,
:24:09. > :24:13.which are shared by many people, to just say, look, among the wealthy
:24:14. > :24:19.nations, we spend a lower proportion of our GDP on health than most of
:24:20. > :24:24.the other countries, European countries included, we need to put
:24:25. > :24:30.up tax if we want a proper NHS. Wouldn't that be honest? I'm not the
:24:31. > :24:36.Shadow Chancellor, I don't make taxation policy. You are tempting me
:24:37. > :24:40.down a particular road by you or I smile. John McDonnell will come up
:24:41. > :24:43.with our taxation policy. We have had an ambition to meet the European
:24:44. > :24:47.average, the way these things are measured have changed since then,
:24:48. > :24:54.but we did have that ambition and for a few years we met it. We need
:24:55. > :24:56.substantial investment in the NHS. Everyone accepts it was
:24:57. > :25:00.extraordinary that there wasn't an extra penny for the NHS in the
:25:01. > :25:05.Autumn Statement this week. And as we go into the general election,
:25:06. > :25:10.whenever it is, we will have a plan for the NHS. Come back and speak to
:25:11. > :25:12.us when you know what you are going to do. Thank you.
:25:13. > :25:15.Theresa May has promised to trigger formal Brexit negotiations
:25:16. > :25:17.before the end of March, but the Prime Minister must wait
:25:18. > :25:20.for the Supreme Court to decide whether parliament must vote
:25:21. > :25:23.If that is the Supreme Court's conclusion, the Liberal Democrats
:25:24. > :25:26.and others in parliament have said they'll demand a second EU
:25:27. > :25:28.referendum on the terms of the eventual Brexit deal before
:25:29. > :25:31.And last week, two former Prime Ministers suggested
:25:32. > :25:34.that the referendum result could be reversed.
:25:35. > :25:38.In an interview with the New Statesman on Thursday,
:25:39. > :25:41.Tony Blair said, "It can be stopped if the British people decide that,
:25:42. > :25:43.having seen what it means, the pain-gain cost-benefit analysis
:25:44. > :25:50.John Major also weighed in, telling a meeting
:25:51. > :25:52.of the National Liberal Club that the terms of Brexit
:25:53. > :25:54.were being dictated by the "tyranny of the majority".
:25:55. > :25:56.He also said there is a "perfectly credible case"
:25:57. > :26:00.That prompted the former Conservative leader
:26:01. > :26:04.Iain Duncan Smith to criticise John Major.
:26:05. > :26:06.He told the BBC, "The idea we delay everything simply
:26:07. > :26:08.because they disagree with the original result does
:26:09. > :26:13.seem to me an absolute dismissal of democracy."
:26:14. > :26:16.So, is there a realistic chance of a second referendum on the terms
:26:17. > :26:21.of whatever Brexit deal Theresa May manages to secure?
:26:22. > :26:25.Lib Dem party leader Tim Farron has said, "We want to respect
:26:26. > :26:28.the will of the people and that means they must have their say
:26:29. > :26:31.in a referendum on the terms of the deal."
:26:32. > :26:35.But the Lib Dems have just eight MPs - they'll need Labour support
:26:36. > :26:40.One ally is former Labour leadership candidate Owen Smith.
:26:41. > :26:44.He backs the idea of a second referendum.
:26:45. > :26:47.But yesterday the party's deputy leader, Tom Watson, said that,
:26:48. > :26:49."Unlike the Lib Dem Brexit Deniers, we believe in respecting
:26:50. > :26:57.To discuss whether or not there should be a second referendum
:26:58. > :27:00.on the terms of the Brexit deal, I've been joined by two
:27:01. > :27:03.In Somerset is the former Lib Dem leader Paddy Ashdown,
:27:04. > :27:06.and in Shropshire is the former Conservative cabinet minister
:27:07. > :27:17.Paddy Ashdown, let me come to you first. When the British people have
:27:18. > :27:23.spoken, you do what they command, either you believe in democracy or
:27:24. > :27:30.you don't. When democracy speaks, we obey. Your words on the night of the
:27:31. > :27:33.referendum, what's changed? Nothing has changed, Andrew, that's what I
:27:34. > :27:38.said and what I still believe in. The British people have spoken, we
:27:39. > :27:44.will not block Parliament debating the Brexit decision, Article 50, but
:27:45. > :27:51.we will introduce an amendment to say that we need to consult the
:27:52. > :27:58.British people, not about if we go out but what destination we would
:27:59. > :28:02.then achieve. There is a vast difference in ordinary people's
:28:03. > :28:06.lives between the so-called hard Brexit and soft Brexit. Soft Brexit,
:28:07. > :28:11.you remain in the single market, you have to accept and agree on
:28:12. > :28:19.immigration. Hard Brexit you are out of the single market, we have many
:28:20. > :28:25.fewer jobs... Why didn't you say before the referendum there would be
:28:26. > :28:29.a second referendum on the terms? Forgive me, I said it on many
:28:30. > :28:34.occasions, you may not have covered it, Andrew, but that's a different
:28:35. > :28:38.thing. In every speech I gave I said this, and this has proved to be
:28:39. > :28:42.true, since those who recommended Brexit refused to tell us the
:28:43. > :28:47.destination they were recommending, they refuse to give any detail about
:28:48. > :28:51.the destination, if we did vote to go out, it would probably be
:28:52. > :28:55.appropriate to decide which destination, hard Brexit or soft
:28:56. > :29:00.Brexit we go to. They deliberately obscure that because it made it more
:29:01. > :29:06.difficult to argue the case. It wasn't part of the official campaign
:29:07. > :29:10.but let me come to Owen Paterson. What's wrong with a referendum on
:29:11. > :29:14.the terms of the deal? We voted to leave but we don't really know on
:29:15. > :29:17.what conditions we leave so what's wrong with negotiating the deal and
:29:18. > :29:25.putting that deal to the British people? This would be a ridiculous
:29:26. > :29:30.idea, it would be a complete gift to the EU negotiators to go for an
:29:31. > :29:34.impossibly difficult deal because they want to do everything to make
:29:35. > :29:39.sure that Brexit does not go through. This nonsense idea of hard
:29:40. > :29:43.Brexit and soft Brexit, it was never discussed during the referendum
:29:44. > :29:49.campaign. We made it clear we wanted to take back control, that means
:29:50. > :29:53.making our own laws, raising and spending the money agreed by elected
:29:54. > :29:56.politicians, getting control of our own borders back, and getting
:29:57. > :30:00.control of our ability to do trade deals around the world. That was
:30:01. > :30:06.clear at all stages of the referendum. We got 17.4 million
:30:07. > :30:11.votes, the biggest vote in history for any issue, that 52%, 10% more
:30:12. > :30:16.than John Major got and he was happy with his record number of 14
:30:17. > :30:21.million, more than Tony Blair got, which was 43%, so we have a very
:30:22. > :30:25.clear mandate. Time and again people come up to me and say when are we
:30:26. > :30:29.going to get on with this. The big problem is uncertainty. We want to
:30:30. > :30:31.trigger Article 50, have the negotiation and get to a better
:30:32. > :30:41.place. OK, I need to get a debate going.
:30:42. > :30:45.Paddy Ashdown, the EU doesn't want us to leave. If they knew there was
:30:46. > :30:47.going to be a second referendum, surely there was going to be a
:30:48. > :30:49.second referendum, surely their incentive would be to give us the
:30:50. > :30:54.worst possible deal would vote against it would put us in a
:30:55. > :30:59.ridiculous negotiating position. On the contrary, the government could
:31:00. > :31:02.go and negotiate with the European Union and anyway, the opinion of the
:31:03. > :31:06.European Union is less important than the opinion of the British
:31:07. > :31:10.people. It seems to me that Owen Paterson made the case for me
:31:11. > :31:16.precisely. They refuse to discuss what kind of destination. Britain
:31:17. > :31:19.voted for departure, but not a destination. Because Owen Paterson
:31:20. > :31:24.and his colleagues refused to discuss what their model was. So the
:31:25. > :31:28.range of options here and the impact on the people of Britain is huge.
:31:29. > :31:31.There is nothing to stop the government going to negotiate,
:31:32. > :31:37.getting the best deal it can and go into the British people and saying,
:31:38. > :31:44.this is the deal, guys, do you agree? Owen Paterson? It is simple.
:31:45. > :31:51.The British people voted to leave. We voted to take back control of our
:31:52. > :31:54.laws, our money, our borders. But most people don't know the shape of
:31:55. > :32:01.what the deal would be. So why not have a vote on it? Because it would
:32:02. > :32:06.be a gift to the EU negotiators to drive the worst possible deal in the
:32:07. > :32:10.hope that it might be chucked out with a second referendum. The
:32:11. > :32:17.biggest danger is the uncertainty. We have the biggest vote in British
:32:18. > :32:21.history. You have said all that. It was your side that originally
:32:22. > :32:26.proposed a second referendum. The director of Leave said, there is a
:32:27. > :32:32.strong democratic case for a referendum on what the deal looks
:32:33. > :32:43.like. Your side. Come on, you are digging up a blog from June of 2015.
:32:44. > :32:51.He said he had not come to a conclusion. He said it is a distinct
:32:52. > :32:56.possibility. No senior members of the campaign said we would have a
:32:57. > :33:00.second referendum. It is worth chucking Paddy the quote he gave on
:33:01. > :33:03.ITV news, whether it is a majority of 1% or 20%, when the British
:33:04. > :33:10.people have spoken, you do what they command. People come up to me and
:33:11. > :33:20.keep asking, when are you going to get on with it? What do you say to
:33:21. > :33:23.that, Paddy Ashdown? Owen Paterson has obviously not been paying
:33:24. > :33:33.attention. You ask me that question at the start. Owen and his kind have
:33:34. > :33:37.to stick to the same argument. During the referendum, when we said
:33:38. > :33:43.that the Europeans have it in their interest to picket tough for us,
:33:44. > :33:47.they would suffer as well. And that has proved to be right. The European
:33:48. > :33:52.Union does not wish to hand as a bad deal, because they may suffer in the
:33:53. > :34:04.process. We need the best deal for both sides. I can't understand why
:34:05. > :34:08.Owen is now reversing that argument. Here is the question I am going to
:34:09. > :34:17.ask you. If we have a second referendum on the deal and we vote
:34:18. > :34:28.by a very small amount, by a sliver, to stay in, can we then make it
:34:29. > :34:33.best-of-3? No, Andrew! Vince Cable says he thinks if you won, he would
:34:34. > :34:37.have to have a decider. You will have to put that income tax, because
:34:38. > :34:45.I don't remember when he said that. -- you have to put that in context.
:34:46. > :34:51.Independent, 19th of September. That is a decision on the outcome. The
:34:52. > :34:56.central point is that the British people voted for departure, not a
:34:57. > :35:01.destination. In response to the claim that this is undemocratic, if
:35:02. > :35:07.it is democratic to have one referendum, how can it be
:35:08. > :35:09.undemocratic to have two? Owen Paterson, the British government, on
:35:10. > :35:14.the brink of triggering article 50, cannot tell us if we will remain
:35:15. > :35:20.members of the single market, if we will remain members of the customs
:35:21. > :35:24.union. From that flows our ability to make trade deals, our attitude
:35:25. > :35:27.towards freedom of movement and the rest of it. Given that the
:35:28. > :35:31.government can't tell us, it is clear that the British people have
:35:32. > :35:37.no idea what the eventual shape will be. That is surely the fundamental
:35:38. > :35:43.case for a second referendum. Emphatically not. They have given a
:35:44. > :35:51.clear vote. That vote was to take back control. What the establishment
:35:52. > :35:53.figures like Paddy should recognise is the shattering damage it would do
:35:54. > :36:01.to the integrity of the whole political process if this was not
:36:02. > :36:04.delivered. People come up to me, as I have said for the third time now,
:36:05. > :36:10.wanting to know when we will get article 50 triggered. Both people
:36:11. > :36:14.who have voted to Remain and to Leave. If we do not deliver this, it
:36:15. > :36:18.will be disastrous for the reputation and integrity of the
:36:19. > :36:26.whole political establishment. Let me put that you Paddy Ashdown. It is
:36:27. > :36:30.very Brussels elite - were ask your question but if we don't like the
:36:31. > :36:39.answer, we will keep asking the question. Did it with the Irish and
:36:40. > :36:45.French. It is... It would really anger the British people, would it
:36:46. > :36:49.not? That is an interesting question, Andrew. I don't think it
:36:50. > :36:53.would. All the evidence I see in public meetings I attended, and I
:36:54. > :36:56.think it is beginning to show in the opinion polls, although there hasn't
:36:57. > :36:59.been a proper one on this yet, I suspect there is a majority in
:37:00. > :37:03.Britain who would wish to see a second referendum on the outcome.
:37:04. > :37:08.They take the same view as I do. What began with an open democratic
:37:09. > :37:12.process cannot end with a government stitch up. Contrary to what Owen
:37:13. > :37:19.suggests, there is public support for this. And far from damaging the
:37:20. > :37:23.government and the political class, it showed that we are prepared to
:37:24. > :37:33.listen. We shall see. Paddy Ashdown, have you eaten your hat yet? Andrew,
:37:34. > :37:38.as you well know, I have eaten five hats. You cannot have a second
:37:39. > :37:41.referendum until you eat your hat on my programme. We will leave it
:37:42. > :37:48.there. Paddy Ashdown and Owen Paterson, thank you much. I have
:37:49. > :37:51.eaten a hat on your programme. I don't remember!
:37:52. > :37:53.It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
:37:54. > :38:05.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now
:38:06. > :38:16.Hello. Coming up: why Daisy could be left counting the cost of Cumbria's
:38:17. > :38:17.infighting. The reality is devolution is the only game in town
:38:18. > :38:20.and if we don't want to get play and if we don't want to get play
:38:21. > :38:30.that game we are going to get left behind. And chewing the cud over the
:38:31. > :38:35.Autumn Statement, my two guests. The Autumn Statement was the big news
:38:36. > :38:40.this week. Was there enough specific in it for our region? Definitely. It
:38:41. > :38:44.sets out what we need to do to tackle the challenges of the
:38:45. > :38:48.Northwest. ?13 billion has been reconfirmed for the North in terms
:38:49. > :38:57.of infrastructure. Is that new stuff? Yeah, the button has been
:38:58. > :39:01.pressed for the M-16, improvements. New money on our and D. ?2 billion a
:39:02. > :39:04.year, which will be vitally important for life sciences,
:39:05. > :39:06.critical for Manchester and Cheshire as well. ?556 million promised for
:39:07. > :39:12.deals which will be allocated by our deals which will be allocated by our
:39:13. > :39:16.enterprise partnership. That's an important package that will really
:39:17. > :39:20.help take forward the Northern Powerhouse. Anything you want to see
:39:21. > :39:25.which wasn't in there? I think this Autumn Statement helped to set out
:39:26. > :39:30.some stability and help build confidence. It was a good package.
:39:31. > :39:35.Lucy, presumably you don't agree. We have seen the nail in the coffin of
:39:36. > :39:39.six years of austerity from the Conservative government. Posterity
:39:40. > :39:44.has now failed and its own terms because the deficit is now going to
:39:45. > :39:48.be just about half in the next three years and it wasn't in 2010. They
:39:49. > :39:51.said they were going to eliminated by now. It would reduce the deficit
:39:52. > :39:56.even slower than the Labour Party even slower than the Labour Party
:39:57. > :39:59.reduced -- promised to do six years ago. Posterity has failed to provide
:40:00. > :40:03.the investment and support the economy needed to grow. That's why
:40:04. > :40:08.we are seeing... What was the Labour and suffer these problems? We've got
:40:09. > :40:12.to invest in the future, invest in people, making sure people have the
:40:13. > :40:16.skills and education. We are seeing huge cuts to education and skills
:40:17. > :40:21.budgets. It's a false economy. We cannot be the high wage, high skill
:40:22. > :40:28.economy. We are still seeing faster growth in Germany and France as
:40:29. > :40:32.well. -- faster growth than Germany and France. We have the worst
:40:33. > :40:35.productivity in the Western world pretty much which means we have
:40:36. > :40:43.people here working longer for less because we've got a very unstable
:40:44. > :40:48.workforce, doing short hours or in and out of work. Very insecure work.
:40:49. > :40:52.We have really got to have a big ambition here to be a country that
:40:53. > :41:01.has got high skilled, high wage secure labour market. Thanks both of
:41:02. > :41:04.you. The gloomy economic forecast made most headlines although the
:41:05. > :41:10.rise in the minimum wage and spending on some major projects were
:41:11. > :41:12.among the measures. In one part of our region, Cumbria, there are
:41:13. > :41:18.concerns that the county is being left behind.
:41:19. > :41:23.I am the fifth generation to farm here. James Robinson's family have
:41:24. > :41:29.had their farm outside candle for more than 140 years. When his great,
:41:30. > :41:35.great grandfather came here in 1875, one thing he didn't have to worry
:41:36. > :41:39.about was slow broadband. Broadband has been atrocious in the past two
:41:40. > :41:42.years. We are lucky that we are fairly close to town so we get a
:41:43. > :41:46.reasonable speed. It's still not brilliant. Don't have to go too far
:41:47. > :41:51.away over the hill towards the village and its atrocious over
:41:52. > :42:00.there. We do think... We are fairly lucky but it's... The Chancellor has
:42:01. > :42:03.promised to spend ?1 billion to improve broadband speeds, good news
:42:04. > :42:09.you would think for James and others living in rural areas of south
:42:10. > :42:10.Cumbria. The campaigners planning to install their
:42:11. > :42:13.broadband here it will not help broadband here it will not help
:42:14. > :42:20.them. Commercial companies will be using that money and they will be
:42:21. > :42:28.wanting to make a profit and it will be used in towns. Our rural areas
:42:29. > :42:33.will not be helped at all. If you miles away and this is exactly what
:42:34. > :42:36.Philip Hammond wants to see. This is a four-bedroom family home. 94 new
:42:37. > :42:43.houses are being built here on the edge of candle and unusually, half
:42:44. > :42:48.of them are affordable homes. Any extra money is good news. I'm
:42:49. > :42:53.thinking in particular of the shift of emphasis from homeownership to
:42:54. > :42:57.the suggestion that we want rented housing. It can only be seen as good
:42:58. > :43:03.news for the whole sector. Philip Hammond says he wants economy to be
:43:04. > :43:07.match fit for Brexit. That includes investing in better broadband and
:43:08. > :43:13.new homes like these. He also believes that every part of the
:43:14. > :43:16.country should get its share of economic success. Political
:43:17. > :43:21.opponents however say they are already struggling to get vital
:43:22. > :43:26.investment. It's a frustration to us that we are not getting the funding
:43:27. > :43:33.we need. The local enterprise partnership, bidding for ?165
:43:34. > :43:38.million for Cumbria, and we understand we have a small figure of
:43:39. > :43:42.?16 million. But those behind the bid say politicians need to face
:43:43. > :43:46.reality. Devolution is the only game in town and if we don't want to play
:43:47. > :43:49.that game, we are going to get left behind. That was spelt out quite
:43:50. > :43:54.clearly by Greg Clark earlier in the year. He has gone and done exactly
:43:55. > :43:58.what we were told would happen. While some in this idyllic part of
:43:59. > :44:03.the Northwest clearly feel neglected by Westminster, others believe the
:44:04. > :44:08.opportunities are there to get the investment they desperately need.
:44:09. > :44:13.The money Cumbria was hoping for is part of the government's ?1.8
:44:14. > :44:17.billion regional growth fund. Eleanor spoke to the Northern
:44:18. > :44:23.Powerhouse investor and asked if the county was getting its fair share.
:44:24. > :44:28.?556 million of that is going to the North of England. That is the lions
:44:29. > :44:31.share that budget. This was a fund which was over bid by three or four
:44:32. > :44:35.times so it's not a surprise if local enterprise partnerships
:44:36. > :44:38.putting bids in above their fair share will be disappointed. The
:44:39. > :44:44.truth is on Cumbria, they will receive more money per head than
:44:45. > :44:49.London. Is it right that those areas with elected mayors are getting more
:44:50. > :44:51.cash? When you have a directly elected structure through these
:44:52. > :44:55.mayoral combined authorities, what you have their is you have a
:44:56. > :45:00.demonstration that everybody is working together to the same
:45:01. > :45:03.economic goals will stop people working strategically. It makes
:45:04. > :45:07.sense to invest where people have come together with a definite plan
:45:08. > :45:11.for the region. We are being told that system won't work for them so
:45:12. > :45:16.isn't it an fair they should lose out in terms of support for the
:45:17. > :45:19.local economy? We're putting record investment into transport and into
:45:20. > :45:23.infrastructure across the North, regardless of whether or not people
:45:24. > :45:25.have a mayor. Where there are Merrill structures, there are
:45:26. > :45:32.additional funding pots that come with that, precisely because areas
:45:33. > :45:36.have demonstrated they have a plan and can deliver on it. When we give
:45:37. > :45:39.them this extra investment, they can guarantee they will create new jobs,
:45:40. > :45:50.new housing and employment developments. That is the reason why
:45:51. > :45:52.there are these investments. David, we heard the concerns in
:45:53. > :45:58.Cumbria. Do you feel Cheshire was also in danger of being left behind?
:45:59. > :46:02.We need to make sure we create a combined authority. I know Cheshire
:46:03. > :46:06.Cheshire West want to. Now it is Cheshire West want to. Now it is
:46:07. > :46:08.down to Warrington. It's vital we do because we could collaborate with
:46:09. > :46:13.Manchester, Liverpool and challenge where we are. There needs to be that
:46:14. > :46:18.counterweight. That's the missing ingredient at the moment. It's
:46:19. > :46:21.important we take it forward. I appeal to councillors to think about
:46:22. > :46:26.the opportunities. I think we can achieve something really good for
:46:27. > :46:31.our region. You don't feel it is focused too much on big cities?
:46:32. > :46:34.Possibly is currently but credit to Manchester, they've led the way.
:46:35. > :46:39.Others are trying to catch up. What we need to do now is make sure we
:46:40. > :46:43.get the city and county working together because their strengths in
:46:44. > :46:46.both areas. When we together and work together, we can achieve
:46:47. > :46:51.amazing things. That's what we need to do. Lucy, what is your view on
:46:52. > :46:55.Shire counties? Do they need to get their act together? They definitely
:46:56. > :46:58.need to have extra support and investment. There's no question of
:46:59. > :47:02.that. But I think what we've seen over the last few years, and it's a
:47:03. > :47:05.welcome development, is that the government is prepared to go the
:47:06. > :47:11.speed of the fastest, not wait for everyone to catch up and only then
:47:12. > :47:14.start issuing these sorts of funds when everybody is at the same level.
:47:15. > :47:18.Allowing Manchester to lead the way, which it has been doing, and we've
:47:19. > :47:23.got lots of extra powers in Manchester that other places won't
:47:24. > :47:27.get, we can demonstrate the model and transform the way in which we
:47:28. > :47:30.deliver services. And hopefully transform the local economy. Other
:47:31. > :47:35.places can catch up. That would be a good thing for them as well. Back to
:47:36. > :47:39.the Autumn Statement. We have something here, the Northern
:47:40. > :47:42.Powerhouse strategy. Things you like in here? I mention some of those at
:47:43. > :47:48.the beginning. There is extra focus on infrastructure and that ?556
:47:49. > :47:51.million that will be made available for the North. There is a really
:47:52. > :47:54.clear narrative there that everybody is being brought into. We have
:47:55. > :47:58.political differences but when we get together, we can create
:47:59. > :48:01.something that can be globally significant. There is a huge prize
:48:02. > :48:04.and that's why we've got to make sure in Cheshire we get a combined
:48:05. > :48:09.authority and we work with Manchester and Liverpool. I think it
:48:10. > :48:13.sets out a good strategy. Whatever you think of this, at least the
:48:14. > :48:17.government has a strategy. Does Labour have anything similar?
:48:18. > :48:22.Absolutely. We support the push of the Northern Powerhouse. There has
:48:23. > :48:25.been a concern on my part and on the part of the Labour Party since
:48:26. > :48:30.Theresa May took over that we saw for a few weeks there are lots of
:48:31. > :48:35.quiet evening on the idea of a Northern Powerhouse. I was told that
:48:36. > :48:38.one of the ministers in that department wasn't allowed the phrase
:48:39. > :48:41.Northern Powerhouse in a press release. Number ten wouldn't clear
:48:42. > :48:49.it for a while because the emphasis now seems to be on the engine of the
:48:50. > :48:54.West Midlands or Birmingham. If they can carry on that emphasis, because
:48:55. > :48:57.I do think it's been a William important not just PR emphasise,
:48:58. > :49:01.although that has been important to get attention to the north, but it
:49:02. > :49:06.has come with devolution and powers. We need to see that accelerating.
:49:07. > :49:11.Recent evidence has shown the gap between London and the south-east
:49:12. > :49:15.and the North and the is at its greatest ever. This is an urgent
:49:16. > :49:20.task to make sure we've got that economic growth here in the
:49:21. > :49:25.north-west that we need. And with high-speed two and further plans in
:49:26. > :49:28.place for better links between Manchester and Leeds, these are
:49:29. > :49:31.really meaningful infrastructure changes which are going to take
:49:32. > :49:35.place. I think it's going to help move these things forward. This is a
:49:36. > :49:39.classic example whether you are red or blue, when to make sure this
:49:40. > :49:44.works. There is strength in collaboration on this. I am sure you
:49:45. > :49:47.in Westminster and in your in Westminster and in your
:49:48. > :49:49.constituencies but in the nation, we're not producing enough according
:49:50. > :49:53.to the Chancellor. He is providing a to the Chancellor. He is providing a
:49:54. > :49:57.?23 billion investment fund and ?2 billion for research and
:49:58. > :50:02.development. Will the Northwest's crucial science sector get what they
:50:03. > :50:07.need? From malaria treatments tested in
:50:08. > :50:10.Liverpool to ultra thin graphene discovered in Manchester, our
:50:11. > :50:15.science and technology sector is having a global impact. But is it in
:50:16. > :50:20.a fair fight with the Golden Triangle of Oxford, Cambridge and
:50:21. > :50:23.London just a few hundred miles away? This project can be more than
:50:24. > :50:28.just a transport link. It can become a transformational Tech corridor.
:50:29. > :50:32.The Chancellor promised Oxford and Cambridge new road and railway is
:50:33. > :50:36.this week. He also promised ?2 billion for research and development
:50:37. > :50:41.in the UK tech sector but will that cash be heading up here? The private
:50:42. > :50:49.sector spends double what the public sector spends. The government spends
:50:50. > :50:54.7% of R and D in the north. We would like to see the government meet that
:50:55. > :50:58.more pounds spent in the North. It more pounds spent in the North. It
:50:59. > :51:03.would be very helpful for the Northern economy. This business in
:51:04. > :51:06.Runcorn helps provide the science skills to change food waste. Is
:51:07. > :51:11.looking to expand but bosses are uncertain about the final details of
:51:12. > :51:14.the money. Particularly with Brexit, we are concerned about the fund
:51:15. > :51:19.availability for research and development. Although new programmes
:51:20. > :51:22.have been notified in the Chancellor potluck statement, it's not clear
:51:23. > :51:30.how quickly they will be brought to bear and will allow us to develop
:51:31. > :51:33.further. -- Autumn Statement. Staff gravitating from science parks like
:51:34. > :51:39.this one in Runcorn towards London is a problem. If think tank report
:51:40. > :51:42.this week highlighted the so call brain drain, 13 times as many
:51:43. > :51:48.graduates had to London compared with Manchester. Malaria is a
:51:49. > :51:54.terrible thing that kills 600,000 children every year. Bill Gates
:51:55. > :51:55.found his way to the Liverpool School of tropical medicine to help
:51:56. > :51:59.fund its malaria research but some fund its malaria research but some
:52:00. > :52:05.graduates have not been as willing as him to head north. Once we get
:52:06. > :52:09.people here, they don't go away and Oxford and Cambridge don't get them
:52:10. > :52:13.back. It's getting people to realise that when they actually come here,
:52:14. > :52:16.they get a better standard of living, there is clearly a centre of
:52:17. > :52:20.expertise you that people ought to be gravitating to and working with.
:52:21. > :52:23.That is happening to an extent but don't think government is
:52:24. > :52:30.recognising it as much as it could or should. The School of tropical
:52:31. > :52:32.medicine is building a new ?25 million laboratory. That they won
:52:33. > :52:33.support from the government to enable them to fill it with staff,
:52:34. > :52:39.doing life changing work. doing life changing work.
:52:40. > :52:43.Joining us now is Andrew Carter from the Centre for cities, which has
:52:44. > :52:46.worked with areas including Warrington and Manchester on
:52:47. > :52:51.economic growth. Cheap released a report this week which was stark on
:52:52. > :52:55.web graduates head. Explain what the brain drain is about. We are
:52:56. > :53:01.interested in how graduates move around, both to study and where they
:53:02. > :53:06.go after work. What we found was 25% of new graduates that are working
:53:07. > :53:10.six months after they finish university, they are working in
:53:11. > :53:15.London. To give you some sense, the numbers for Manchester and Liverpool
:53:16. > :53:19.5% and 2%. There is quite a large difference between this graduates
:53:20. > :53:22.and where they end up as opposed to where they study. However, I think
:53:23. > :53:25.it's important to remember that there is good news for the
:53:26. > :53:29.Northwest, particularly when you look at Manchester and Liverpool.
:53:30. > :53:32.Both of them gain graduates when you think about those graduates that
:53:33. > :53:40.move off to go somewhere else or they actually stay there because
:53:41. > :53:43.they are born there and studied. Both Liverpool and Manchester are
:53:44. > :53:45.quite good gainers in the sense they have more graduates at the end of
:53:46. > :53:48.the period than they did at the start. There are things to build on.
:53:49. > :53:53.Nevertheless, they are mindful on the poll of London. It's quite a
:53:54. > :53:58.challenge for our politicians. Is that something government can do a
:53:59. > :54:02.lot about? Do businesses have to do more to attract people to Manchester
:54:03. > :54:08.and Liverpool? Absolutely right. What you clearly find is that
:54:09. > :54:12.graduates that do move move for economic opportunities. Jobs is
:54:13. > :54:15.important. Actually, careers as well. Often, it's not the first job
:54:16. > :54:19.you get that you necessarily move for, it's the second or the third. I
:54:20. > :54:24.think that the vital difference between places like London and maybe
:54:25. > :54:28.some other places. They can offer this service -- second and third job
:54:29. > :54:33.and they wage increases that people are looking for. It's thinking about
:54:34. > :54:38.how we can create more graduate jobs, more high skilled jobs in our
:54:39. > :54:42.cities, Liverpool, Manchester, Warrington and these other places.
:54:43. > :54:49.I'll come back to you shortly. David, are we to London centric? The
:54:50. > :54:51.amazing thing is we've only been talking about the Northern
:54:52. > :54:56.Powerhouse for the last two years. The agenda has moved on
:54:57. > :54:59.dramatically, the narrative has changed, the infrastructure has
:55:00. > :55:03.changed. That said, there is more to do to make sure we've got more
:55:04. > :55:10.really attractive growth prospects in the region. If we can get
:55:11. > :55:12.Manchester moving, even better. Then we've got AstraZeneca in
:55:13. > :55:16.Macclesfield with great opportunities there. They are an
:55:17. > :55:20.example of a company where jobs have gone down south. They moved their
:55:21. > :55:26.research and development function to Cambridge. They do good science I
:55:27. > :55:29.understand. A lot of people didn't want to move down because the point
:55:30. > :55:32.that is being made is, once people get established in the north and
:55:33. > :55:35.they see the quality of life here and the great people and the
:55:36. > :55:37.countryside, why would they want to go anywhere else? It's the same with
:55:38. > :55:42.the BBC moving up here. The number the BBC moving up here. The number
:55:43. > :55:45.of people who said we will try it and now they are really pleased
:55:46. > :55:51.they've made the change. There is science in your constituency, too.
:55:52. > :55:55.The government are backing companies in your constituency. We are seeing
:55:56. > :56:00.more investment but it needs to be considerably more because the point
:56:01. > :56:04.that your guest was making was a very good one. People need to have
:56:05. > :56:09.careers in Manchester and in the north-west that we do have some good
:56:10. > :56:15.companies and good initiatives, things like graphene or the health
:56:16. > :56:24.and life sciences in Manchester and Cheshire. But you need the large
:56:25. > :56:28.grouping of effective companies and government institutions that people
:56:29. > :56:31.can have a whole career here. That's why we need a stronger industrial
:56:32. > :56:36.strategy around some of these key sectors for the region. We need
:56:37. > :56:39.backed up by the Right kind of investment in the right way, whether
:56:40. > :56:45.it be in transport infrastructure or research, grants and science grants
:56:46. > :56:50.which still massively go to London and the south-east compared with the
:56:51. > :56:54.Northwest. That's unacceptable. Andrew, we've heard a lot about
:56:55. > :57:01.productivity. What is that? Let's use an example. Everybody likes
:57:02. > :57:06.baking nowadays. In an hour, in the UK, let's say the average worker
:57:07. > :57:11.produces two cakes in that hour. When you look at other places like
:57:12. > :57:16.France or America, they are producing three cakes or 3.5 cakes
:57:17. > :57:22.in that hour. If you look at places like Manchester or Liverpool and
:57:23. > :57:26.Burnley, Blackburn and Warrington, those sorts of places are all below
:57:27. > :57:30.the UK average on productivity. Infrastructure is very important but
:57:31. > :57:35.the big issue for the Northwest and particularly for its cities are the
:57:36. > :57:40.low skills of much of its resident population. We should be investing
:57:41. > :57:43.in our schools and our people to improve the skills base of those
:57:44. > :57:48.people. Those people with higher skills are more productive. Thank
:57:49. > :57:54.you very much for joining us. We need to up our game here. That is
:57:55. > :57:57.clear. We are pushing hard on apprenticeships. When you look at
:57:58. > :57:59.technical training over decades, we've not done a good enough job
:58:00. > :58:04.there and that is now moving forward. I think that's exciting.
:58:05. > :58:08.There is an opportunity now with the exchange rate being lowered to do
:58:09. > :58:13.more exports. What you find is that more businesses export, they become
:58:14. > :58:17.more productive. They learn from other businesses and find ways to
:58:18. > :58:20.lower their unit costs. The thing is, if you talk about productivity,
:58:21. > :58:24.that's one thing but that what that will eat it was more jobs and also
:58:25. > :58:28.sustainably increased wages. That is what we will want to see. Now it's
:58:29. > :58:33.about taking the strategies forward to deliver on that. That's the big
:58:34. > :58:37.thing we've heard about, wages and stagnation of wages. That needs to
:58:38. > :58:41.be tackled. This was the key message out of the Autumn Statement, what a
:58:42. > :58:46.decade we've got ahead of stagnant wages whilst costs are rising and
:58:47. > :58:50.house prices are going up. This key issue of investing in people is
:58:51. > :58:54.absolutely critical and I'm afraid that for all their talk, the
:58:55. > :58:57.government are going backwards in that regard. We are seeing for the
:58:58. > :59:03.first time in over 25 years cuts to schools budgets, further education
:59:04. > :59:07.has seen the budget slashed by 30% over the last six years. The early
:59:08. > :59:12.years, where social mobility and where people's life chances are set,
:59:13. > :59:15.the equality in the early years is going backwards under this
:59:16. > :59:18.government. The social mobility report which was at last week that
:59:19. > :59:22.David damning indictment of what this government are doing on social
:59:23. > :59:26.mobility is a key part of the story as well. We've got to make sure all
:59:27. > :59:30.our people, not just those that are good enough to rise to the top but
:59:31. > :59:37.that everybody is able to upscale and to live a life to their full
:59:38. > :59:42.potential. We are going to have to leave it there. Time for the rest of
:59:43. > :59:49.the week's news now. She was Kevin Fitzpatrick.
:59:50. > :59:53.Bad decisions, poor attitudes and chronic staff shortages. The
:59:54. > :59:57.findings of a report into these hospitals which the trust tried to
:59:58. > :00:03.keep secret. We have investigated thoroughly. We've met with the
:00:04. > :00:08.families and I hope we've dealt with them sincerely and sensitively.
:00:09. > :00:11.David Morris denied claiming expenses for journeys in his
:00:12. > :00:17.constituency while he was away on foreign trips. He blamed an
:00:18. > :00:20.antiquated expenses system. South Lackland councils accused of
:00:21. > :00:27.dragging its feet over payments to protect homes from future flooding.
:00:28. > :00:31.This couple are still waiting. It is prolonged and prolonged. We are
:00:32. > :00:35.getting nowhere. We've tried to make phone calls and nothing happens. The
:00:36. > :00:40.women's equality party is holding its first-ever party conference in
:00:41. > :00:43.Manchester. The leader of Trafford Council has been selected as the
:00:44. > :00:50.Conservative candidate for mayor of greater candidate -- magister.
:00:51. > :00:55.The election is in May. That's all we've got time for this week. Thanks
:00:56. > :00:57.to my guests. I will hand you back to Andrew.
:00:58. > :01:01.have got to make sure London is open. Thank you. Andrew, back to
:01:02. > :01:07.you. Is Theresa May serious
:01:08. > :01:08.about curbing executive pay? Who will be crowned Nigel Farage's
:01:09. > :01:12.successor as Ukip leader? And can the Lib Dems pull off
:01:13. > :01:40.a by-election upset in Richmond? So,,, on pay talk about the
:01:41. > :01:43.executive of what executives get compared to the average worker in
:01:44. > :01:47.the company, giving shareholders real power to vote down pay rises if
:01:48. > :01:50.they don't like them, which is pretty much what Ed Miliband
:01:51. > :02:00.proposed in the general election in 2015. Is she serious about this? She
:02:01. > :02:03.is very serious, and the Tory party probably does owe Ed Miliband an
:02:04. > :02:08.apology for trashing his ideas and 2015 and then putting them all up
:02:09. > :02:11.for votes in November 20 16. She is very serious, and this all comes
:02:12. > :02:14.back to her desperate fear that unless capitalism reforms itself and
:02:15. > :02:21.becomes more acceptable to the just about managing or even 78% of the
:02:22. > :02:24.country who are not earning vast wealth at anywhere near the figures
:02:25. > :02:30.you see in the City, serious things will happen and the political sense
:02:31. > :02:34.of trust will implode. She has already been bartered down by her
:02:35. > :02:37.own Cabinet on this. She wanted to go further and make workers on the
:02:38. > :02:44.board mandatory. They have managed to stop that. What will her fallback
:02:45. > :02:52.position be on workers on the board if she is not able to get it into
:02:53. > :02:56.some claw? We would like to have workers on the board, but whatever
:02:57. > :03:00.they do on the board there will have no voting powers on the board. When
:03:01. > :03:04.you look at what was leaked out over the weekend, that we should know the
:03:05. > :03:10.ratio of the top to the average and that shareholders who own the
:03:11. > :03:16.company should determine, in the end, the highest-paid salaries, you
:03:17. > :03:22.kind of think, what could the possible objection be to any of
:03:23. > :03:27.that? Two things. One, I agree with Tom that she is deadly serious about
:03:28. > :03:31.this agenda and it comes under the banner, that sentence in the party
:03:32. > :03:36.conference speech about "It's time to focus on the good that government
:03:37. > :03:40.can do". She is by instinct more of an interventionist than Cameron and
:03:41. > :03:43.Osborne. But she is incredibly cautious, whether it is through the
:03:44. > :03:50.internal constraints of opposition within Cabinet, or her own small C
:03:51. > :03:54.Conservative caution in implementing this stuff. Part of the problem is
:03:55. > :03:59.the practicalities. George Osborne commission will Hutton to do a
:04:00. > :04:02.report which came out with similar proposals, which were never
:04:03. > :04:08.implemented. It is quite hard to enforce. It will antagonise business
:04:09. > :04:12.leaders when she's to woo them again in this Brexit furore. So there are
:04:13. > :04:17.problems with it. And judging by what has happened so far, my guess
:04:18. > :04:20.is that the aim will be genuinely bold and interesting, and the
:04:21. > :04:25.implementation incredibly cautious. Does it matter if she annoys some
:04:26. > :04:31.business leaders? Isn't that part of her brand? Will there be problems on
:04:32. > :04:34.the Tory backbenches with it? I think there will be and I think it
:04:35. > :04:37.does matter at this sensitive time for when we are positioning
:04:38. > :04:42.ourselves as a country and whether we are going to brand ourselves as a
:04:43. > :04:45.great city of business, implementing quite interventionist policies. Any
:04:46. > :04:50.suggestion that the government can control how much the top earners
:04:51. > :04:54.get, I think would be received in a hostile way. What would be wrong
:04:55. > :04:59.with the shareholders, who own the company, determining the pay of the
:05:00. > :05:02.higher hands, the executives? Morally, you can absolutely make
:05:03. > :05:07.that argument but to business leaders, they will not like it.
:05:08. > :05:10.Ultimately, this will not come down to more than a row of beans. There
:05:11. > :05:14.was a huge debate about whether there should be quotas of women on
:05:15. > :05:20.boards. In the end, that never happened. All we get is figures. But
:05:21. > :05:26.quotas of women, for which there is a case and a case against too, that
:05:27. > :05:29.was a government mandate. This is not, this is simply empowering
:05:30. > :05:36.shareholders who own the company to determine the pay of the people they
:05:37. > :05:40.hire. There is a strong moral argument for it. Strong economic
:05:41. > :05:46.argument. But the Tory backbenchers will not like this. The downside is
:05:47. > :05:50.that this is a world where companies are thinking about upping sticks to
:05:51. > :05:56.Europe. No, they say they are thinking of that. Not one has done
:05:57. > :06:01.it yet. Others have made massive investments in this country. But is
:06:02. > :06:07.it not an incentive for those making these threats to actually do it? In
:06:08. > :06:12.Europe, bankers' pay is now mandated by Brussels. It is a vivid way of
:06:13. > :06:21.showing you are addressing the issue of inequality. I think she will go
:06:22. > :06:26.with it, but let's move on to Ukip. I think we will get the result
:06:27. > :06:33.tomorrow. There are the top three candidates. Paul Nuttall, Suzanne
:06:34. > :06:37.Evans and on my right, John Reid Evans. One of them will be the next
:06:38. > :06:42.leader. Who is going to win? It is widely predicted to be Paul Nuttall
:06:43. > :06:46.and is probably the outcome that the Labour Party fears most. Paul
:06:47. > :06:50.Nuttall is a very effective communicator. He is not a household
:06:51. > :06:56.name, far from it, but people will begin to learn more about him and
:06:57. > :07:01.find that he is actually quite a strong leader. Can people Ukip
:07:02. > :07:09.together again after this shambolic period since the referendum? If
:07:10. > :07:13.anyone can, he can. And his brand of working collar, Northern Ukip is the
:07:14. > :07:19.thing that will work for them. Do you think he is the favourite? It
:07:20. > :07:23.would be amazing if he doesn't win. His greatest problem will be getting
:07:24. > :07:30.Nigel Farage off his back. He is going on a speaking tour of North
:07:31. > :07:33.America. A long speaking tour. Ukip won this EU referendum. They had the
:07:34. > :07:38.chance to hoover up these discontented Labour voters in the
:07:39. > :07:42.north, and all he has done is associated with Ukip with Farage.
:07:43. > :07:48.But Nigel Farage is fed up of Ukip and will be glad to be hands of it.
:07:49. > :07:54.The bigger problem is money. If it is Paul Nuttall, and we don't know
:07:55. > :07:57.the results yet, but he is the favourite, if it is him, I would
:07:58. > :08:01.suggest that that is the result Labour is frightened of most. To be
:08:02. > :08:05.honest, I think they are frightened of Ukip whatever the result.
:08:06. > :08:12.Possibly with good cause. The reason I qualify that is that what you call
:08:13. > :08:15.a shambles over the summer has been something that goes beyond Monty
:08:16. > :08:21.Python in its absurdity and madness. That calls into question whether it
:08:22. > :08:26.can function as a political party when you have what has gone on. The
:08:27. > :08:33.number of leaders itself has been an act of madness. In a context which
:08:34. > :08:37.should be fantastic for them. They have won a referendum. There is a
:08:38. > :08:41.debate about what form Brexit should take, it is a dream for them, and
:08:42. > :08:45.they have gone bonkers. If he can turn it around, I agree that he is a
:08:46. > :08:49.powerful media communicator, and then it is a threat to Labour. But
:08:50. > :08:54.he has got to show that first. Indeed. The by-election in Richmond
:08:55. > :08:59.in south-west London, called by Zac Goldsmith over Heathrow. Has it
:09:00. > :09:03.turned out to be a by-election about Heathrow, or has it turned into a
:09:04. > :09:09.by-election, which is what the Lib Dems wanted, about Brexit? We will
:09:10. > :09:12.know on Thursday. If the Lib Dems win, they will turn it into an EU
:09:13. > :09:18.referendum. It seems incredibly close now. The Lib Dems are swamping
:09:19. > :09:21.Richmond. They had 1000 activists there yesterday. That is getting on
:09:22. > :09:26.for 100th of the population of the place! If the Lib Dems don't manage
:09:27. > :09:30.to win on Thursday and don't manage to turn it into an EU referendum
:09:31. > :09:38.despite all their efforts, it will probably be a disaster for the
:09:39. > :09:42.party. What do you hear, Isabel? I hear that the Lib Dems have
:09:43. > :09:46.absolutely swamped the constituency, but this may backfire. I saw a bit
:09:47. > :09:51.of this myself, living in Witney, when the Lib Dems also swamped and
:09:52. > :09:57.people began to get fed up of their aggressive tactics. I understand
:09:58. > :10:03.that Zac Goldsmith is cautiously optimistic that he will pull this
:10:04. > :10:11.one off. Quick stab at the result? I don't know. But we are entering a
:10:12. > :10:15.period when by-elections are acquiring significant again. If the
:10:16. > :10:21.Lib Dems were to make a game, it would breathe life into that near
:10:22. > :10:25.moribund party like nothing else. Similarly, other by-elections in
:10:26. > :10:29.this shapeless political world we are in are going to become
:10:30. > :10:32.significant. We don't know if we are covering it live on Thursday night
:10:33. > :10:38.yet because we have to find at the time they are going to declare.
:10:39. > :10:42.Richmond are quite late in declaring, but if it is in the early
:10:43. > :10:47.hours, that is fine. If it is on breakfast television, they be not. I
:10:48. > :10:52.want to show you this. Michael Gove was on the Andrew Marr Show this
:10:53. > :10:56.morning. In the now notorious comment that I made, I was actually
:10:57. > :10:58.cut off in midstream, as politicians often. The point I made was not that
:10:59. > :11:09.all experts are that is nonsense. Expert engineers, doctors and
:11:10. > :11:12.physicists are not wrong. But there is a subclass of experts,
:11:13. > :11:17.particularly social scientists, who have to reflect on some of the
:11:18. > :11:20.mistakes they have made. And the recession, which was predicted that
:11:21. > :11:27.we would have if we voted to leave, has gone like a puff of smoke. So
:11:28. > :11:30.economic experts, he talks about. The Chancellor has based all of his
:11:31. > :11:37.forward predictions in this Autumn Statement on the economic expert
:11:38. > :11:43.forecasters. The Office for Budget Responsibility has said it is 50-50,
:11:44. > :11:47.which is the toss of a coin. But what was he supposed to do? You
:11:48. > :11:53.would ideally have to have a Budget that had several sets of scenarios,
:11:54. > :12:00.and that is impossible. Crystal ball territory. But you do wonder if
:12:01. > :12:03.governments are right to do so much of their fiscal projections on the
:12:04. > :12:09.basis of forecasts which turn out to be wrong. They have nothing else to
:12:10. > :12:14.go on. The Treasury forecast is to be wrong. No doubt the OBR forecast
:12:15. > :12:17.will prove not to be exact. As you say, they admitted that they are
:12:18. > :12:22.navigating through fog at the moment. But he also added that it
:12:23. > :12:26.was fog caused by Brexit. So Brexit, even if you accept that these
:12:27. > :12:33.forecasts might be wrong, is causing such a level of uncertainty. He put
:12:34. > :12:44.the figure at 60 billion. That could come to haunt him. He hasn't got a
:12:45. > :12:47.clue. He admitted it. He said, Parliament mandates me to come up
:12:48. > :12:50.with something, so I am going to give you a number. But I wouldn't
:12:51. > :12:56.trust it if I were you, he basically said. I agree with you. The man who
:12:57. > :12:59.borrowed 122 billion more off the back of a coin toss was Philip
:13:00. > :13:03.Hammond. It begs the question, what does that say about the confidence
:13:04. > :13:09.Philip Hammond has in his own government's renegotiation? Not a
:13:10. > :13:13.huge amount. I agree. Philip Hammond quoted the OBR figures. He basically
:13:14. > :13:19.said, this is uncertain and it looks bad, and on we go with it. It is a
:13:20. > :13:24.very interesting situation, he said. He was for Remain and he works in a
:13:25. > :13:29.department which regards it as a disaster, whatever everyone else
:13:30. > :13:32.thinks. I have just been told we are covering the by-election. We are
:13:33. > :13:34.part of the constitution. Jo Coburn will have more
:13:35. > :13:36.Daily Politics tomorrow And I'll be back here on BBC One
:13:37. > :13:40.next Sunday at 11. Remember - if it's Sunday,
:13:41. > :14:14.it's the Sunday Politics. to signify the Africans
:14:15. > :14:18.who were here. The story of Henry VIII
:14:19. > :14:45.and his six wives