:00:39. > :00:40.Morning, folks, and welcome to the Sunday Politics.
:00:41. > :00:42.Hard line remainers strike back at Brexit.
:00:43. > :00:44.Are they trying to overturn the result of June's referendum
:00:45. > :00:47.by forcing a second vote before we leave?
:00:48. > :00:51.Australia's man in London tells us that life outside the EU "can be
:00:52. > :00:55.pretty good" and that Brexit will "not be as hard as people say".
:00:56. > :00:57.Could leaving the EU free Britain to do more business
:00:58. > :01:03.It's been called "disgusting, dangerous and deadly"
:01:04. > :01:06.but how polluted is our air, how bad for our health,
:01:07. > :01:12.And in the North West: Can more council tax cover social care?
:01:13. > :01:14.Plus, do the maths - why the headmaster here
:01:15. > :01:26.is not feeling festive about his new budget.
:01:27. > :01:30.And with me in the Sunday Politics grotto, the Dasher, Dancer
:01:31. > :01:33.and Prancer of political punditry Iain Martin,
:01:34. > :01:41.They'll be delivering tweets throughout the programme.
:01:42. > :01:47.First this morning, some say they will fight
:01:48. > :01:50.for what they call a "soft Brexit", but now there's an attempt by those
:01:51. > :01:54.who campaigned for Britain to remain in the EU to allow the British
:01:55. > :01:56.people to change their minds - possibly with a second referendum -
:01:57. > :02:00.The Labour MEP Richard Corbett is revealed this morning to have
:02:01. > :02:02.tried to amend European Parliament resolutions.
:02:03. > :02:05.The original resolution called on the European Parliament
:02:06. > :02:08.to "respect the will of the majority of the citizens
:02:09. > :02:23.of the United Kingdom to leave the EU".
:02:24. > :02:29.He also proposed removing the wording "stress that this wish
:02:30. > :02:32.must be respected" and adding "while taking account of the 48.1%
:02:33. > :02:44.The amendments were proposed in October,
:02:45. > :02:47.but were rejected by a vote in the Brussels
:02:48. > :02:49.Constitutional Affairs Committee earlier this month.
:02:50. > :02:51.The report will be voted on by all MEPs in February.
:02:52. > :02:54.Well, joining me now from Leeds is the Labour MEP who proposed
:02:55. > :03:03.Good morning. Thanks for joining us at short notice. Is your aim to try
:03:04. > :03:08.and reverse what happened on June 23? My aim with those amendments was
:03:09. > :03:12.simply factual. It is rather odd that these amendments of two months
:03:13. > :03:18.ago are suddenly used paper headlines in three very different
:03:19. > :03:24.newspapers on the same day. It smacks of a sort of concerted effort
:03:25. > :03:29.to try and slapped down any notion that Britain might perhaps want to
:03:30. > :03:34.rethink its position on Brexit as the cost of Brexit emerges. You
:03:35. > :03:40.would like us to rethink the position even before the cost urges?
:03:41. > :03:45.I get lots of letters from people saying how one, this was an advisory
:03:46. > :03:51.referendum won by a narrow majority on the basis of a pack of lies and a
:03:52. > :03:54.questionable mandate. But if there is a mandate from this referendum,
:03:55. > :03:58.it is surely to secure a Brexit that works for Britain without sinking
:03:59. > :04:02.the economy. And if it transpires as we move forward, that this will be a
:04:03. > :04:07.very costly exercise, then there will be people who voted leave who
:04:08. > :04:11.said Hang on, this is not what I was told. I was told this would save
:04:12. > :04:13.money, we could put it in the NHS, but if it is going to cost us and
:04:14. > :04:31.our Monday leg, I would the right to reconsider. But
:04:32. > :04:34.your aim is not get a Brexit that would work for Britain, your aim is
:04:35. > :04:36.to stop it? If we got a Brexit that would work for Britain, that would
:04:37. > :04:39.respect the mandate. But if we cannot get that, if it is going to
:04:40. > :04:42.be a disaster, if it is going to cost people jobs and cost Britain
:04:43. > :04:46.money, it is something we might want to pause and rethink. The government
:04:47. > :04:51.said it is going to come forward with a plan. That is good. We need
:04:52. > :04:58.to know what options to go for as a country. Do we want to stay in the
:04:59. > :05:01.single market, the customs union, the various agencies? And options
:05:02. > :05:07.should be costed so we can all see how much they cost of Brexit will
:05:08. > :05:11.be. If you were simply going to try and make the resolution is more
:05:12. > :05:20.illegal, why did the constitutional committee vote them down? This is a
:05:21. > :05:25.report about future treaty amendments down the road for years
:05:26. > :05:34.to come. This was not the main focus of the report, it was a side
:05:35. > :05:39.reference, in which was put the idea for Association partnerships. Will
:05:40. > :05:47.you push for the idea before the full parliament? I must see what the
:05:48. > :05:54.text is. You said there is a widespread view in labour that if
:05:55. > :05:58.the Brexit view is bad we should not exclude everything, I take it you
:05:59. > :06:05.mean another referendum. When you were named down these amendments,
:06:06. > :06:09.was this just acting on your own initiative, or acting on behalf of
:06:10. > :06:17.the Labour Party? I am just be humble lame-duck MEP in the European
:06:18. > :06:21.Parliament. It makes sense from any point of view that if the course of
:06:22. > :06:25.action you have embarked on turns out to be much more costly and
:06:26. > :06:29.disastrous than you had anticipated, that you might want the chance to
:06:30. > :06:34.think again. You might come to the same conclusion, of course, but you
:06:35. > :06:40.might think, wait a minute, let's have a look at this. But let's be
:06:41. > :06:44.clear, even though you are deputy leader of Labour in the European
:06:45. > :06:51.Parliament, you're acting alone and not as Labour Party policy? I am
:06:52. > :06:56.acting in the constitutional affairs committee. All I am doing is stating
:06:57. > :06:59.things which are common sense. If as we move forward then this turns out
:07:00. > :07:04.to be a disaster, we need to look very carefully at where we are
:07:05. > :07:10.going. But if a deal is done under Article 50, and we get to see the
:07:11. > :07:15.shape of that deal by the end of 2019 under the two-year timetable,
:07:16. > :07:19.in your words, we won't know if it is a disaster or not until it is
:07:20. > :07:26.implemented. We won't be able to tell until we see the results about
:07:27. > :07:33.whether it is good or bad, surely? We might well be able to, because
:07:34. > :07:38.that has to take account of the future framework of relationships
:07:39. > :07:41.with the European Union, to quote the article of the treaty. That
:07:42. > :07:45.means we should have some idea about what that will be like. Will we be
:07:46. > :07:49.outside the customs union, for instance, which will be very
:07:50. > :07:54.damaging for our economy? Or will we have to stay inside and follow the
:07:55. > :07:58.rules without having a say on them. We won't know until we leave the
:07:59. > :08:02.customs union. You think it will be damaging, others think it will give
:08:03. > :08:06.us the opportunity to do massive trade deals. My case this morning is
:08:07. > :08:10.not what is right or wrong, we will not know until we have seen the
:08:11. > :08:14.results. We will know a heck of a lot more than we do now when we see
:08:15. > :08:17.that Article 50 divorce agreement. We will know the terms of the
:08:18. > :08:22.divorce, we will know how much we still have to pay into the EU budget
:08:23. > :08:26.for legacy costs. We will know whether we will be in the single
:08:27. > :08:31.market customs union or not. We will know about the agencies. We will
:08:32. > :08:34.know a lot of things. If the deal on the table looks as if it will be
:08:35. > :08:41.damaging to Britain, then Parliament will be in its rights to say, wait a
:08:42. > :08:44.minute, not this deal. And then you either renegotiate or you reconsider
:08:45. > :08:49.the whole issue of Brexit or you find another solution. We need to
:08:50. > :08:54.leave it there but thank you for joining us.
:08:55. > :09:01.Iain Martin, how serious is the attempt to in effect an wind what
:09:02. > :09:05.happened on June 23? I think it is pretty serious and that interview
:09:06. > :09:10.illustrates very well the most damaging impact of the approach
:09:11. > :09:16.taken by a lot of Remainers, which is essentially to say with one
:09:17. > :09:19.breath, we of course accept the result, but with every action
:09:20. > :09:22.subsequent to that to try and undermine the result or try and are
:09:23. > :09:28.sure that the deal is as bad as possible. I think what needed to
:09:29. > :09:33.happen and hasn't happened after June 23 is you have the extremists
:09:34. > :09:38.on both sides and you have in the middle probably 70% of public
:09:39. > :09:45.opinion, moderate leaders, moderate Remainers should be working together
:09:46. > :09:52.to try and get British bespoke deal. But moderate Leavers will not take
:09:53. > :09:56.moderate Remainers seriously if this is the approach taken at every
:09:57. > :10:06.single turn to try and rerun the referendum. He did not say whether
:10:07. > :10:10.it was Labour policy? That was a question which was ducked. I do not
:10:11. > :10:16.think it is Labour Party policy. I think most people are in a morass in
:10:17. > :10:20.the middle. I think the screaming that happens when anybody dares to
:10:21. > :10:24.question or suggest that you might ever want to think again about these
:10:25. > :10:28.things, I disagree with him about having another referendum but if he
:10:29. > :10:32.wants to campaign for that it is his democratic right to do so. If you
:10:33. > :10:37.can convince enough people it is a good idea then he has succeeded. But
:10:38. > :10:42.the idea that we would do a deal and then realise this is a really bad
:10:43. > :10:49.deal, let's not proceed, we will not really know that until the deal is
:10:50. > :10:53.implemented. What our access is to the single market, whether or not we
:10:54. > :10:57.are in or out of the customs union which we will talk about in a
:10:58. > :11:02.minute, what immigration policy we will have, whether these are going
:11:03. > :11:07.to be good things bad things, surely you have got to wait for four, five,
:11:08. > :11:10.six years to see if it has worked or not? Yes, and by which stage
:11:11. > :11:15.Parliament will have voted on it and there will be no going back from it,
:11:16. > :11:20.or maybe there will. We are talking now about the first three months of
:11:21. > :11:27.2019. That is absolutely the moment when Parliament agrees with Theresa
:11:28. > :11:38.May or not. One arch remain I spoke to, and arch Remainiac, he said that
:11:39. > :11:47.Theresa May will bring this to Parliament in 2019 and could say I
:11:48. > :11:52.recommend that we reject it. What is he on or she? Some strong chemical
:11:53. > :11:58.drugs! The point is that all manner of things could happen. I don't
:11:59. > :12:03.think any of us take it seriously for now but the future is a very
:12:04. > :12:07.long way away. Earlier, the trade Secretary Liam Fox was asked if we
:12:08. > :12:11.would stay in the customs union after Brexit.
:12:12. > :12:16.There would be limitations on what we would do in terms of tariff
:12:17. > :12:23.setting which could limit the deals we would do, but we want to look at
:12:24. > :12:26.all the different deals. There is hard Brexit and soft Brexit as if it
:12:27. > :12:31.is a boiled egg we are talking about. Turkey is in part of the
:12:32. > :12:39.customs union but not other parts. What we need to do is look at the
:12:40. > :12:42.cost. This is what I picked up. The government knows it cannot remain a
:12:43. > :12:47.member of the single market in these negotiations, because that would
:12:48. > :12:51.make us subject to free movement and the European Court. The customs
:12:52. > :12:55.union and the Prime Minister 's office doesn't seem to be quite as
:12:56. > :12:59.binary, that you can be a little bit in and a little bit out, but I would
:13:00. > :13:04.suggest that overall Liam Fox knows to do all the trade deals we want to
:13:05. > :13:08.do we basically have to be out. But what he also seems to know is that
:13:09. > :13:14.is a minority view in Cabinet. He said he was not going to give his
:13:15. > :13:23.opinion publicly. There is still an argument going on about it in
:13:24. > :13:26.Cabinet. When David Liddington struggled against Emily Thornbury
:13:27. > :13:29.PMQs, he did not know about the customs union. What is apparent is
:13:30. > :13:36.Theresa May has not told him what to think about that. If we stay in the
:13:37. > :13:43.customs union we cannot do our own free trade deals. We are behind the
:13:44. > :13:47.customs union, the tariff barriers set by Europe? Not quite. Turkey is
:13:48. > :13:52.proof of the pudding. There are limited exemptions but they can do
:13:53. > :14:01.free trade with their neighbours. Not on goods. They are doing a trade
:14:02. > :14:04.deal with Pakistan at the moment, it relies on foreign trade investment
:14:05. > :14:08.but Europe negotiates on turkey's behalf on the major free-trade
:14:09. > :14:12.deals. This is absolutely why the customs union will be the fault line
:14:13. > :14:16.for the deal we are trying to achieve. Interestingly, I thought
:14:17. > :14:21.Liam Fox suggested during that interview that he was prepared to
:14:22. > :14:26.suck up whatever it was. I think he was saying there is still an
:14:27. > :14:34.argument and he intends to win it. He wants to leave it because he
:14:35. > :14:39.wants to do these free-trade deals. There is an argument in the cabinet
:14:40. > :14:44.about precisely that. The other thing to consider is in this country
:14:45. > :14:48.we have tended to focus too much on the British angle in negotiations,
:14:49. > :14:51.but I think the negotiations are going to be very difficult. You look
:14:52. > :14:55.at the state of the EU at the moment, you look at what is
:14:56. > :15:02.happening in Italy, France, Germany, look at the 27. It is possible I
:15:03. > :15:06.think that Britain could design a bespoke sensible deal but then it
:15:07. > :15:14.becomes very difficult to agree which is why I ultimately think we
:15:15. > :15:15.are heading for a harder Brexit. It will be about developing in this
:15:16. > :15:19.country. So, we've had a warning this week
:15:20. > :15:22.that it could take ten years to do a trade deal
:15:23. > :15:25.with the EU after Brexit. But could opportunities to expand
:15:26. > :15:27.trade lie elsewhere? Australia was one of the first
:15:28. > :15:29.countries to indicate its willingness to do a deal
:15:30. > :15:32.with the UK and now its High Commissioner in London has told
:15:33. > :15:35.us that life outside the EU He made this exclusive film
:15:36. > :15:50.for the Sunday Politics. My father was the Australian High
:15:51. > :15:53.Commissioner in the early 70s when the UK joined
:15:54. > :15:55.the European Union, Now I'm in the job,
:15:56. > :16:03.the UK is leaving. Australia supported
:16:04. > :16:05.Britain remaining a member of the European Union,
:16:06. > :16:08.but we respect the decision that Now that the decision has been made,
:16:09. > :16:14.we hope that Britain will get on with the process
:16:15. > :16:18.of negotiating their exit from the European Union and make
:16:19. > :16:22.the most of the opportunities that Following the referendum decision,
:16:23. > :16:28.Australia approached the British Government
:16:29. > :16:30.with a proposal. We offered, when the time was right,
:16:31. > :16:34.to negotiate a free trade agreement. The British and Australian
:16:35. > :16:40.governments have already established a working group to explore a future,
:16:41. > :16:43.ambitious trade agreement once A free trade agreement will provide
:16:44. > :16:55.great opportunities for consumers Australian consumers could purchase
:16:56. > :17:00.British-made cars for less We would give British
:17:01. > :17:06.households access to cheaper, Our summer is during your winter,
:17:07. > :17:12.so Australia could provide British households with fresh produce
:17:13. > :17:15.when the equivalent British or Australian households would have
:17:16. > :17:22.access to British products Free-trade agreements
:17:23. > :17:35.are also about investment. The UK is the second-largest source
:17:36. > :17:39.of foreign investment in Australia. By the way, Australia also invests
:17:40. > :17:45.over ?200 billion in the UK, so a free trade agreement
:17:46. > :17:48.would stimulate investment, But, by the way, free-trade
:17:49. > :17:53.agreements are not just about trade and investment,
:17:54. > :17:57.they are also about geopolitics. Countries with good trade relations
:17:58. > :18:01.often work more closely together in other fields including security,
:18:02. > :18:05.the spread of democracy We may have preferred
:18:06. > :18:19.the UKto remain in the EU, We may have preferred the UK
:18:20. > :18:21.to remain in the EU, but life outside as we know can
:18:22. > :18:24.be pretty good. We have negotiated eight free-trade
:18:25. > :18:26.agreements over the last 12 years, including a free-trade agreement
:18:27. > :18:28.with the United States This is one of the reasons why
:18:29. > :18:40.the Australian economy has continued to grow over the last 25 years
:18:41. > :18:43.and we, of course, are not Australia welcomes Theresa May's
:18:44. > :18:54.vision for the UK to become a global We are willing to help
:18:55. > :19:23.in any way we can. Welcome to the programme. The
:19:24. > :19:27.Australian government says it wants to negotiate an important trade deal
:19:28. > :19:33.with the UK as efficiently and promptly as possible when Brexit is
:19:34. > :19:38.complete. How prompt is prompt? There are legal issues obviously.
:19:39. > :19:43.The UK, for as long as it remains in the EU, cannot negotiate individual
:19:44. > :19:48.trade deals. Once it leaves it can. We will negotiate a agreement with
:19:49. > :19:54.the UK when the time is right, by which we mean we can do preliminary
:19:55. > :19:59.examination. Are you talking now about the parameters? We are talking
:20:00. > :20:02.already, we have set up a joint working group with the British
:20:03. > :20:06.Government and we are scoping the issue to try to understand what
:20:07. > :20:12.questions will arise in any negotiation. But we cannot have
:20:13. > :20:18.formally a negotiation. Until the country is out. Why is there no
:20:19. > :20:22.free-trade deal between Australia and the European Union? It is a long
:20:23. > :20:28.and tortuous story. Give me the headline. Basically Australian
:20:29. > :20:34.agriculture is either banned or hugely restricted in terms of its
:20:35. > :20:38.access to the European Union. So we see the European Union, Australia's,
:20:39. > :20:44.is a pretty protectionist sort of organisation. Now we are doing a
:20:45. > :20:48.scoping study on a free-trade agreement with the European Union
:20:49. > :20:53.and we hope that next year we can enter into negotiations with them.
:20:54. > :20:58.But we have no illusions this would be a very difficult negotiation, but
:20:59. > :21:03.one we are giving priority to. Is there not a danger that when Britain
:21:04. > :21:08.leaves the EU the EU will become more protectionist? This country has
:21:09. > :21:12.always been the most powerful voice for free trade. I hope that does not
:21:13. > :21:18.happen, but the reason why we wanted Britain to remain in the European
:21:19. > :21:24.Union is because it brought to the table the whole free-trade mentality
:21:25. > :21:27.which has been an historic part of Britain's approach to international
:21:28. > :21:32.relations. Without the UK in the European Union you will lose that.
:21:33. > :21:35.It is a very loud voice in the European Union and you will lose
:21:36. > :21:42.that voice and that will be a disadvantage. The figure that jumped
:21:43. > :21:44.out of me in the film is it to you only 15 months to negotiate a
:21:45. > :21:50.free-trade deal with the United States. Yes, the thing is it is
:21:51. > :21:56.about political will. A free-trade agreement will be no problem unless
:21:57. > :22:00.you want to protect particular sectors of your economy. In that
:22:01. > :22:05.case there was one sector the Americans insisted on protecting and
:22:06. > :22:09.that was their sugar industry. In the end after 15 months of
:22:10. > :22:15.negotiation two relatively free trading countries have fixed up
:22:16. > :22:19.nearly everything. But we had to ask would be go ahead with this
:22:20. > :22:24.free-trade agreement without sugar west we decided to do that. Other
:22:25. > :22:28.than that it was relatively easy to negotiate because we are both
:22:29. > :22:32.free-trade countries. With the UK you cannot be sure, but I do not
:22:33. > :22:37.think a free-trade agreement would take very long to negotiate with the
:22:38. > :22:42.UK because the UK would not want to put a lot of obstacles in the way to
:22:43. > :22:46.Australia. Not to give away our hand, we would not want to put a lot
:22:47. > :22:53.of obstacles in the way of British exports. The trend in recent years
:22:54. > :22:57.is to do big, regional trade deals, but President-elect Donald Trump has
:22:58. > :23:03.made clear the Pacific trade deal is dead. The transatlantic trade deal
:23:04. > :23:06.is almost dead as well. The American election put a nail in the coffin
:23:07. > :23:12.and the French elections could put another nail in the coffin. Are we
:23:13. > :23:15.returning to a world of lateral trade deals, country with country
:23:16. > :23:23.rather than regional blocs? Not necessarily. In the Asia Pacific we
:23:24. > :23:26.will look at multilateral trade arrangements and even if the
:23:27. > :23:30.transpacific partnership is not ratified by the Americans, we have
:23:31. > :23:36.other options are there. However, our approach has been the ultimate
:23:37. > :23:41.would be free-trade throughout the world which is proving hard to
:23:42. > :23:44.achieve. Secondly, if we can get a lot of countries engaged in a
:23:45. > :23:51.free-trade negotiation, that is pretty good if possible. But it is
:23:52. > :23:56.more difficult. But we do bilateral trade agreements. We have one with
:23:57. > :24:00.China, Japan, the United States, Singapore, and the list goes on, and
:24:01. > :24:09.they have been hugely beneficial to Australia. You have been dealing
:24:10. > :24:12.with the EU free deal, what lessons are there? How quickly do you think
:24:13. > :24:19.Britain could do a free-trade deal with the EU if we leave? Well, there
:24:20. > :24:23.is a completely different concept involved in the case of Britain and
:24:24. > :24:28.the EU and that is at the moment there are no restrictions on trade.
:24:29. > :24:32.So you and the EU would be talking about whether you will direct
:24:33. > :24:37.barriers to trade. We are outsiders and we do not get too much involved
:24:38. > :24:44.in this debate except to say we do not want to see the global trade
:24:45. > :24:48.system disrupted by the direction of tariff barriers between the United
:24:49. > :24:53.Kingdom, the fifth biggest economy in the world, and the European
:24:54. > :24:58.Union. Our expectation is not just the British but the Europeans will
:24:59. > :25:03.try to make the transition to Brexit as smooth as possible particularly
:25:04. > :25:08.commercially. Say yes or no if you can. If Britain and Australia make a
:25:09. > :25:11.free-trade agreement, would that include free movement of the
:25:12. > :25:18.Australian and the British people? We will probably stick with our
:25:19. > :25:21.present non-discriminatory system. Australia does not discriminate
:25:22. > :25:26.against any country. The European Union's free movement means you
:25:27. > :25:31.discriminate against non-Europeans. Probably not.
:25:32. > :25:33.It could lead to a ban on diesel cars, prevent the building
:25:34. > :25:36.of a third runway at Heathrow, and will certainly make it
:25:37. > :25:38.more expensive to drive in our towns and cities.
:25:39. > :25:40.Air pollution has been called the "public health crisis
:25:41. > :25:43.of a generation" - but just how serious is the problem?
:25:44. > :25:56.40,000 early deaths result from air pollution every year in the UK.
:25:57. > :26:03.Almost 10,000 Londoners each year die prematurely.
:26:04. > :26:09.It seems at times we can get caught up in alarming assertions
:26:10. > :26:11.about air pollution, that this is a public health
:26:12. > :26:15.emergency, that it is a silent killer, coming from politicians,
:26:16. > :26:23.But how bad is air quality in Britain really?
:26:24. > :26:27.Tony Frew is a professor in respiratory medicine and works
:26:28. > :26:30.at Brighton's Royal Sussex County Hospital.
:26:31. > :26:32.He has been looking into the recent claims
:26:33. > :26:37.It's a problem and it affects people's health.
:26:38. > :26:40.But when people start talking about the numbers
:26:41. > :26:42.of deaths here, I think they are misusing the statistics.
:26:43. > :26:47.There have been tremendous improvements in air quality
:26:48. > :26:52.There is a lot less pollution than there used to be
:26:53. > :26:56.and none of that is coming through in the public
:26:57. > :27:00.So what does Professor Frew make of the claim that alarming levels
:27:01. > :27:03.of toxicity in the air in the UK causes 40,000 deaths each year?
:27:04. > :27:05.It is not 40,000 people who should have air pollution
:27:06. > :27:07.on their death certificate, or 40,000 people who
:27:08. > :27:12.It's a lot of people who had a little bit of life shortening
:27:13. > :27:19.To examine these figures further we travelled to Cambridge to visit
:27:20. > :27:23.I asked him about the data on which these claims
:27:24. > :27:28.They come from a study on how mortality rates in US cities
:27:29. > :27:35.First of all, it is important to realise that that 40,000 figure
:27:36. > :27:41.29,000, which are due to fine particles, and another 11,000
:27:42. > :27:49.I will just talk about this group for a start.
:27:50. > :27:53.These are what are known as attributable deaths.
:27:54. > :27:57.Known as virtual deaths, they come from a complex statistical model.
:27:58. > :28:01.Quite remarkably it all comes from just one number and this
:28:02. > :28:05.was based on a study of US cities and they found out that
:28:06. > :28:09.by monitoring these cities over decades that the cities which had
:28:10. > :28:15.a higher level of pollution had a higher mortality rate.
:28:16. > :28:20.They estimated that there was a 6% increased risk of dying
:28:21. > :28:25.each year for each small increase in pollution.
:28:26. > :28:28.So this is quite a big figure, but it is important to realise
:28:29. > :28:32.it is only a best estimate and the committee that advises
:28:33. > :28:38.the government says that this figure could be between 1% and 12%.
:28:39. > :28:41.So this 6% figure is used to work out the 29,000
:28:42. > :28:46.Yes, through a rather complex statistical model.
:28:47. > :28:51.And a similar analysis gives rise to the 11,000 attributable deaths
:28:52. > :28:58.How much should we invest in cycling?
:28:59. > :29:01.Should we build a third runway at Heathrow?
:29:02. > :29:05.We need reliable statistics to answer those questions,
:29:06. > :29:09.but can we trust the way data is being used by campaigners?
:29:10. > :29:14.I think there are people who have such a passion for the environment
:29:15. > :29:16.and for air pollution that they don't really
:29:17. > :29:22.see it as a problem if they are deceiving the public.
:29:23. > :29:24.Greenpeace have been running a campaign claiming that breathing
:29:25. > :29:27.London's air is the equivalent of smoking 15 cigarettes a day.
:29:28. > :29:32.If you smoke 15 cigarettes a day through your adult life,
:29:33. > :29:35.that will definitely take ten years off your life expectancy.
:29:36. > :29:37.If you are poor and you are in social class five,
:29:38. > :29:40.compared to social class one, that would take seven
:29:41. > :29:44.If you are poor and you smoke, that will take 17 years off your life.
:29:45. > :29:48.Now, we are talking about possibly, if we could get rid of all
:29:49. > :29:50.of the cars in London and all of the road transport,
:29:51. > :29:54.we could make a difference of two micrograms per metre squared in air
:29:55. > :29:59.pollution which might save you 30 days of your life.
:30:00. > :30:01.There is no doubt that air pollution is bad for you,
:30:02. > :30:04.but if we exaggerate the scale of the problem and the impact
:30:05. > :30:08.on our health, are we at risk of undermining the case for making
:30:09. > :30:18.And we are joined now by the Executive Director
:30:19. > :30:37.You have called pollution and national crisis and a health
:30:38. > :30:40.emergency. Around the UK are levels increasing or falling? They are
:30:41. > :30:51.remaining fairly static in London. Nationally? If you look at the
:30:52. > :30:56.studies on where air pollution is measured, in 42 cities around the
:30:57. > :31:00.UK, 38 cities were found to be breaking the legal limit on air
:31:01. > :31:05.pollution so basically all of the cities were breaking the limit so if
:31:06. > :31:08.you think eight out of ten people live in cities, obviously, this is
:31:09. > :31:13.impacting a lot of people around the UK. We have looked at in missions of
:31:14. > :31:23.solvent dioxide, they have fallen and since 1970, nitrogen dioxide is
:31:24. > :31:29.down 69%. Let me show you a chart. There are the nitrogen oxides which
:31:30. > :31:34.we have all been worried about. That chart shows a substantial fall from
:31:35. > :31:39.the 1970s, and then a really steep fall from the 1980s. That is
:31:40. > :31:46.something which is getting better. You have to look at it in the round.
:31:47. > :31:53.If you look at particulates, and if you look at today's understanding of
:31:54. > :32:02.the health impact. Let's look at particulates. We have been really
:32:03. > :32:07.worried about what they have been doing to our abilities to breathe
:32:08. > :32:12.good air, again, you see substantial improvement. Indeed, we are not far
:32:13. > :32:21.from the Gothenberg level which is a very high standard. What you see is
:32:22. > :32:26.it is pretty flat. I see it coming down quite substantially. Over the
:32:27. > :32:30.last decade it is pretty flat. If you look at the World Health
:32:31. > :32:35.Organisation guidelines, actually, these are at serious levels and they
:32:36. > :32:38.need to come down. We know the impact, particularly on children, if
:32:39. > :32:42.you look at what is happening to children and children's lungs, if
:32:43. > :32:48.you look at the impact of asthma and other impacts on children in cities
:32:49. > :32:51.and in schools next to main roads where pollution levels are very
:32:52. > :32:55.high, the impact of very serious. You have many doctors, professors
:32:56. > :33:01.and many studies by London University showing this to be true.
:33:02. > :33:05.The thing is, we do not want pollution. If we can get rid of
:33:06. > :33:11.pollution, let's do it. And also we also have to get rid of CO2 which is
:33:12. > :33:15.causing climate change. We are talking air pollution at the moment.
:33:16. > :33:19.The point is there is not still more to do, it is clear there is and
:33:20. > :33:24.there is no question about that, my question is you seem to deny that we
:33:25. > :33:28.have made any kind of progress and that you also say that air pollution
:33:29. > :33:35.causes 40,000 deaths a year in the UK, that is not true. The figure is
:33:36. > :33:45.40,000 premature deaths is what has been talked about by medical staff.
:33:46. > :33:50.Your website said courses. It causes premature deaths. What we are
:33:51. > :33:55.talking about here is can we solve the problem of air pollution? If air
:33:56. > :33:59.pollution is mainly being caused by diesel vehicles then we need to
:34:00. > :34:03.phase out diesel vehicles. If there are alternatives and clean Turner
:34:04. > :34:06.tips which will give better quality of air, better quality of life and
:34:07. > :34:10.clean up our cities, then why don't we take the chance to do it? You had
:34:11. > :34:18.the Australian High Commissioner on this programme earlier. He said to
:34:19. > :34:24.me earlier, why is your government supporting diesel? That is the most
:34:25. > :34:30.polluting form of transport. That may well be right but I am looking
:34:31. > :34:35.at Greenpeace's claims. You claim it causes 40,000 deaths, it is a figure
:34:36. > :34:41.which regularly appears. Let me quote the committee on the medical
:34:42. > :34:50.effects of air pollutants, it says this calculation, 40,000 which is
:34:51. > :34:54.everywhere in Greenpeace literature, is not an estimate of the number of
:34:55. > :34:58.people whose untimely death is caused entirely by air pollution,
:34:59. > :35:02.but a way of representing the effect across the whole population of air
:35:03. > :35:08.pollution when considered as a contributory factor to many more
:35:09. > :35:17.individual deaths. It is 40,000 premature deaths. It could be
:35:18. > :35:21.premature by a couple of days. It could me by a year. -- it could be
:35:22. > :35:23.by a year. It could also be giving children asthma and breathing
:35:24. > :35:32.difficulties. We are talking about deaths. It could also cause stroke
:35:33. > :35:41.and heart diseases. Medical experts say we need to deal with this. Do
:35:42. > :35:48.you believe air pollution causes 40,000 deaths a year. I have defined
:35:49. > :35:58.that. You accept it does not? It leads to 40,000 premature deaths.
:35:59. > :36:03.But 40,000 people are not killed. You say air pollution causes 40,000
:36:04. > :36:07.deaths each year on your website. I have just explained what I mean by
:36:08. > :36:12.that in terms of premature deaths. The question is, are we going to do
:36:13. > :36:16.something about that? Air pollution is a serious problem. It is mainly
:36:17. > :36:21.caused by diesel. If we phased diesel out it will solve the problem
:36:22. > :36:26.of air pollution and deal with the wider problem of climate change. I
:36:27. > :36:33.am not talking about climate change this morning. Let's link to another
:36:34. > :36:39.claim... Do you want to live in a clean city? Do you want to breathe
:36:40. > :36:44.clean air? Yes, don't generalise. Let's stick to your claims. You have
:36:45. > :36:48.also said living in London on your life is equivalent to smoking 50
:36:49. > :36:55.cigarettes a day. That is not true either. What I would say is if you
:36:56. > :36:58.look at passive smoking, it is the equivalent of I don't know what the
:36:59. > :37:02.actual figure is, I can't remember offhand, but it is the equivalent
:37:03. > :37:08.effect of about ten cigarettes being smoked passively. The question is in
:37:09. > :37:14.terms of, you are just throwing me out all of these things... I am
:37:15. > :37:18.throwing things that Greenpeace have claimed. Greenpeace have claimed
:37:19. > :37:22.that living in London is equivalent of smoking 15 cigarettes a day and
:37:23. > :37:26.that takes ten years off your life. Professor Froome made it clear to us
:37:27. > :37:30.that living in London your whole life with levels of pollution does
:37:31. > :37:35.take time off your life but it takes nine months of your life. Nine
:37:36. > :37:39.months is still too much, I understand that, but it is not ten
:37:40. > :37:42.years and that is what you claim. I would suggest you realise that is a
:37:43. > :37:48.piece of propaganda because you claim on the website, you have taken
:37:49. > :37:51.it down. I agree it has been corrected and I agree with what the
:37:52. > :37:56.professor said that maybe it takes up to a year off your life, but the
:37:57. > :38:00.thing is, there are much more wider issues as well, in terms of the
:38:01. > :38:06.impact on air pollution, and in terms of the impact on young
:38:07. > :38:11.children. We can argue about the facts... But these are your claims,
:38:12. > :38:15.this is why I am hitting it to you. It does not get away from the
:38:16. > :38:20.underlying issue that air pollution is a serious problem. We are not
:38:21. > :38:24.arguing for a moment that it is not. Do you think the way you exaggerate
:38:25. > :38:30.things, put false claims, in the end, for of course we all agree
:38:31. > :38:35.with, getting the best air we can, you undermine your credibility? I
:38:36. > :38:38.absolutely do not support false claims and if mistakes have been
:38:39. > :38:44.made then mistakes have been made and they will be corrected. I think
:38:45. > :38:48.the key issue is how we are going to deal with air pollution. Clearly,
:38:49. > :38:54.diesel is the biggest problem and we need to work out a way how we can
:38:55. > :38:58.get away from diesel as quickly and fast as possible. Comeback and see
:38:59. > :39:00.us in the New Year and we will discuss diesel. Thank you.
:39:01. > :39:02.It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
:39:03. > :39:05.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now
:39:06. > :39:18.Coming up in the North West: Do the maths -
:39:19. > :39:19.why the headmaster here is not feeling festive
:39:20. > :39:28.It is going to affect staffing, more than likely.
:39:29. > :39:36.And that will affect what happens in the classroom,
:39:37. > :39:40.Top of our Christmas wish list were this week's guests -
:39:41. > :39:42.Alison McGovern is the Labour MP for Wirral South, and Chris
:39:43. > :39:44.Green the Conservative member for Bolton West.
:39:45. > :39:48.We start with the emergency commons debate on Aleppo.
:39:49. > :39:50.We start with the emergency Commons debate on Aleppo.
:39:51. > :39:52.The former Chancellor George Osborne made his first backbench
:39:53. > :39:55.contribution since 2003, saying the decision of MPs
:39:56. > :40:00.against military intervention has contributed to the tragedy.
:40:01. > :40:03.Tens of thousands of people have been killed as a result.
:40:04. > :40:09.Millions of refugees have been sent from their homes across the world.
:40:10. > :40:16.We have allowed a terrorist state to emerge in the form of Isis,
:40:17. > :40:20.Key allies like Lebanon and Jordan are destabilised.
:40:21. > :40:26.The refugee crisis has transformed the politics across Europe,
:40:27. > :40:28.allowed fascism to rise in the eastern Europe, created
:40:29. > :40:33.That is the price of not intervening.
:40:34. > :40:40.With the benefit of hindsight, were we right not to intervene in 2013?
:40:41. > :40:44.I think looking at the situation at the time, we knew chemical
:40:45. > :40:50.weapons were being used against men, women and children.
:40:51. > :40:53.In the west, we had pretty much stopped that from happening.
:40:54. > :40:58.To have that red line and in our parliament to vote against it,
:40:59. > :41:01.which had an incredible effect on the international community
:41:02. > :41:10.which stopped the United States from intervening and getting
:41:11. > :41:13.involved, we can't say it directly links to what we are seeing today...
:41:14. > :41:16.I think now perhaps we should have done.
:41:17. > :41:20.You said that every day you regret that this is happening,
:41:21. > :41:27.but do you regret the decision in 2013?
:41:28. > :41:31.I said that I will live with my vote in 2013 for the rest of my life.
:41:32. > :41:33.And actually I think there is an agreement
:41:34. > :41:36.across the House of Commons that we had much as a body politic
:41:37. > :41:40.What I really wish that we had done more was to bring
:41:41. > :41:44.Because in the end he failed to persuade the house.
:41:45. > :41:46.We should have brought him back and back with the strategy
:41:47. > :41:50.In fact, in that debate when George Osborne spoke,
:41:51. > :41:52.we had cross-party support for the Foreign Secretary to do more
:41:53. > :41:55.to put a strategy on the table to protect civilians.
:41:56. > :42:01.You are the chair of the all-party group on Syria.
:42:02. > :42:04.When we look at what is happening now, what could we do?
:42:05. > :42:06.Where can we succeed where the UN has failed time after time?
:42:07. > :42:09.There are three things that the British government
:42:10. > :42:12.Firstly, getting people out safely, and the rescue we are seeing
:42:13. > :42:14.at the moment in Syria is far from safe.
:42:15. > :42:16.It looks like Assad has even been attacking people
:42:17. > :42:22.So we could have monitors in there to protect people.
:42:23. > :42:27.There are still besieged cities remaining to get aid into them.
:42:28. > :42:29.And 221 parliamentarians want the government to do that
:42:30. > :42:35.And finally, the British government has military assets
:42:36. > :42:38.in the region that we could be using for monitoring and tracking,
:42:39. > :42:42.so that we can build up evidence so that Assad can be prosecuted.
:42:43. > :42:45.These are all things that the government has yet to agree
:42:46. > :42:48.Why is the Prime Minister not interested?
:42:49. > :42:50.David Cameron three years ago made every concession
:42:51. > :42:54.he could to Ed Miliband, every concession that was demanded,
:42:55. > :43:00.and the Labour Party then voted against David Cameron.
:43:01. > :43:14.It is very difficult now that the decision
:43:15. > :43:20.was made not to intervene, we are in a very difficult position.
:43:21. > :43:23.You can talk about air drops, you can talk about safe zones,
:43:24. > :43:25.but the Russians now have filled the void.
:43:26. > :43:27.Are we going to have British transport aircraft
:43:28. > :43:29.flying over a stereo, who we don't know what
:43:30. > :43:33.We don't know if people will be using ground to air weapons.
:43:34. > :43:37.There was a Christmas gift from central government
:43:38. > :43:42.Local authorities have been freed up to accelerate a tax increase
:43:43. > :43:48.a few MPs spotted not everyone's present is the same size.
:43:49. > :43:50.If you raise the council tax in Windsor and Maidenhead,
:43:51. > :44:01.If you raise the council tax precept in Liverpool or Newcastle,
:44:02. > :44:04.Is she saying that older people, frail, elderly, vulnerable people,
:44:05. > :44:07.are less valuable in our big cities than they are in wealthier
:44:08. > :44:16.So has Liverpool City Council started writing its
:44:17. > :44:18.Claire Hamilton has been finding out.
:44:19. > :44:21.The Communities Secretary, bearing gifts for local authorities.
:44:22. > :44:25.Powers to raise council tax to pay for social care.
:44:26. > :44:29.Turn back the clock and his predecessor took a different view,
:44:30. > :44:32.determined to stop them at all costs.
:44:33. > :44:36.Anyone using loopholes, like the democracy dodgers who tried
:44:37. > :44:47.to creep in under the radar, we will make sure they pay.
:44:48. > :44:50.Back to the future, and Sajid Javid said there would be
:44:51. > :44:53.Councils will be granted the flexibility to raise the precept
:44:54. > :44:55.by up to 3% next year and the year after.
:44:56. > :44:58.But it's not quite the early Christmas present local
:44:59. > :45:01.At this care centre, run jointly by Liverpool City Council
:45:02. > :45:03.and the NHS, patients regain independence after recovering
:45:04. > :45:06.from hospital treatment and before going home.
:45:07. > :45:09.After being here and experiencing it, I would be happy
:45:10. > :45:25.I think the government should put some money in as well.
:45:26. > :45:29.Liverpool City Council is considering a 10%
:45:30. > :45:31.council tax increase, but even that is not enough.
:45:32. > :45:34.All they are allowing us to do is to bring forward by 1% additional
:45:35. > :45:36.each year rises they had already decreed were absolutely
:45:37. > :45:40.So this is really not increasing the amount of money
:45:41. > :45:45.But how do other council tax payers feel?
:45:46. > :45:48.Well, I don't think it should be coming from the people, it should be
:45:49. > :45:52.The problem with council tax is there is no way
:45:53. > :45:55.It just goes to this big pot in town.
:45:56. > :46:00.I just think we've all got to bite the bullet quite honestly and pay.
:46:01. > :46:10.Councils like Liverpool say they are being squeezed from both sides.
:46:11. > :46:13.80% of properties in the city are in the lowest council tax bands,
:46:14. > :46:19.Liverpool gets less than a third of its main income from council tax.
:46:20. > :46:21.In Conservative controlled Trafford, it's just over half.
:46:22. > :46:23.And in affluent Cheshire East, another Conservative council,
:46:24. > :46:29.So every 1% rise there is worth double
:46:30. > :46:32.Experts say that the social care crisis has been
:46:33. > :46:36.But successive governments have failed to deal with it.
:46:37. > :46:38.Fundamentally, there is this problem of not responding to the challenge
:46:39. > :46:41.of the population getting older, political parties have tried to get
:46:42. > :46:45.It fails every time because it's a hot potato.
:46:46. > :46:52.Fundamentally, there needs to be some new taxis or tax increases
:46:53. > :46:54.Fundamentally, there needs to be some new taxes or tax increases
:46:55. > :46:57.to pay for this and no government wants to actually advocate that.
:46:58. > :47:01.The debate about how we fund care for an ageing population will go
:47:02. > :47:05.Chris, the British Red Cross has described social care in the UK
:47:06. > :47:07.in 2016 as a humanitarian crisis that is getting worse.
:47:08. > :47:09.A humanitarian crisis in our country.
:47:10. > :47:12.Why is the Prime Minister adding on bits and bobs instead
:47:13. > :47:15.I think the Prime Minister recognises the problems
:47:16. > :47:19.That's why we are taking action to allow councils
:47:20. > :47:23.to increase the council tax and increase it further.
:47:24. > :47:26.Actually, councils can increase above what the government
:47:27. > :47:29.is suggesting, but they have to have a conversation with local
:47:30. > :47:35.I think the local residents you've just shown would accept a further
:47:36. > :47:48.increase in council tax to pay for local services.
:47:49. > :47:50.There seems to be something unfair about this mathematical equation.
:47:51. > :47:53.The places that need more funding in social care have less revenue
:47:54. > :47:55.when it comes to council tax, so they're incremental increase
:47:56. > :47:58.will bring them less money and they need it most.
:47:59. > :48:00.There is a huge difference in performance of councils around
:48:01. > :48:02.the country in terms of what the are actually delivering.
:48:03. > :48:05.Some councils can do more work, to make sure the money needed
:48:06. > :48:07.for social care gets there, rather than giving
:48:08. > :48:18.Are you disputing more money is needed?
:48:19. > :48:20.They have just spent ?1 million on Jacuzzis
:48:21. > :48:24.There is a great deal of work that could be done to improve
:48:25. > :48:28.There was a proposal to save millions by combining Bolton
:48:29. > :48:30.and Wigan refuge collection together, so the money is there.
:48:31. > :48:33.Do you think there is enough money for social care?
:48:34. > :48:39.And perhaps the government does need to intervene, but since 2010,
:48:40. > :48:42.council reserves have increased by ?9 billion across the country.
:48:43. > :48:44.There are substantial reserves that could be and should be
:48:45. > :49:04.Once the reserves are gone, they are gone.
:49:05. > :49:07.to councils to pour every penny you have saved out offers
:49:08. > :49:09.I just don't think it's a sustainable idea to say
:49:10. > :49:12.to councils to pour every penny you have saved out offers
:49:13. > :49:16.on social care now, when, as the academic on the film
:49:17. > :49:18.they are set, this is a product of a changing
:49:19. > :49:23.And that is creating a financial crisis for our country because we've
:49:24. > :49:26.simply not found a way to fund that ageing population.
:49:27. > :49:28.And what the problem is, the government decided to cut...
:49:29. > :49:30.Some councils are spending money on Jacuzzis and saunas.
:49:31. > :49:32.Maybe that needs to be put in other areas?
:49:33. > :49:37.The government decided in 2010 they would put local authorities
:49:38. > :49:39.The government decided in 2010 they would cut local authorities
:49:40. > :49:42.that do preventative work and allow people to get into a crisis,
:49:43. > :49:45.so they end up in hospital, which is the expense of bit.
:49:46. > :49:47.So actually the government strategy has been financially
:49:48. > :49:51.Of course, we can all pick our favourite bit of council spending
:49:52. > :49:53.that we don't like and say, they shouldn't be doing that,
:49:54. > :49:55.they could spend that on something else.
:49:56. > :49:58.We were part of the cross-party coalition to try to come up
:49:59. > :50:00.with a sustainable plan for the future.
:50:01. > :50:02.I think that if you did it in a more preventative way,
:50:03. > :50:17.But it needs to be a combination of things like the government keeps
:50:18. > :50:21.cutting and cutting corporation tax unnecessarily, so looking
:50:22. > :50:28.at where central government could manage its finances better.
:50:29. > :50:32.What do you say to that about corporation tax?
:50:33. > :50:41.Well, actually, I think there is more that councils can do.
:50:42. > :50:44.But I am getting to the position where I think the government should
:50:45. > :50:49.I'm not there yet, but I think we are on the verge of that decision.
:50:50. > :50:51.I hope we are able to find a cross-party coalition
:50:52. > :50:53.on spending on care because it's definitely necessary.
:50:54. > :50:56.The worry that I have is we have been down this road
:50:57. > :51:00.And what happens, you come to an election and the Tory party
:51:01. > :51:02.is fretting about the grey vote and the pull out.
:51:03. > :51:05.We were accused of death taxes and everything,
:51:06. > :51:11.Staff room Christmas do's in Bury, Blackburn and Knowsley might have
:51:12. > :51:13.been livelier than usual this year as they celebrate being winners
:51:14. > :51:17.But in West Cheshire and central Manchester,
:51:18. > :51:20.where budgets will be cut, teachers may have been left
:51:21. > :51:23.However the maths lesson is delivered, overall, schools
:51:24. > :51:45.It's trigonometry time in this year 9 maths lesson at Burnage Academy.
:51:46. > :51:47.But it is sums of a different kind bothering the head.
:51:48. > :51:50.He thinks up to 10% will be cut from his school's budget
:51:51. > :52:02.You can't take 10%, save that money from the running
:52:03. > :52:04.costs of the school, it is going to affect
:52:05. > :52:08.And that will of course affect what happens in the classroom,
:52:09. > :52:13.This school has 950 pupils, some with complex needs and many
:52:14. > :52:19.You don't have to spend the same amount of money educating
:52:20. > :52:22.for example a grammar school child, as you do a child who is two,
:52:23. > :52:24.three, four, five years behind in the reading age.
:52:25. > :52:38.We're running out of money money very very quickly.
:52:39. > :52:41.There are winners and losers across our region from this
:52:42. > :52:44.Amongst the winners are Blackpool, Knowsley and Bari, who are all
:52:45. > :52:45.seeing a 2% increase in their funding.
:52:46. > :52:48.Amongst the winners are Blackpool, Knowsley and Bury, who are all
:52:49. > :52:50.seeing a 2% increase in their funding.
:52:51. > :52:52.The biggest losers are schools like this one in Manchester.
:52:53. > :52:56.Also losing out is Cheshire West and Chester schools.
:52:57. > :53:00.Those figures are just for the first year of this new formula.
:53:01. > :53:03.Government says the settlement makes things fairer and some
:53:04. > :53:06.What has been created over time is a funding system that allows
:53:07. > :53:08.similar schools with similar students to receive levels
:53:09. > :53:11.of funding so different that they put some young people
:53:12. > :53:21.This is so keenly anticipated by underfunded local authorities
:53:22. > :53:27.The changes may be welcomed in Trafford but not
:53:28. > :53:29.in Ellesmere Port and Neston where schools will lose out.
:53:30. > :53:33.I think there is a slight weighting towards rural areas.
:53:34. > :53:36.But I think really the core problem is that school funding has not been
:53:37. > :53:45.The National Audit Office warned this week that there
:53:46. > :53:54.was a ?3 billion gap in funding for schools.
:53:55. > :53:57.That means in Burnage and beyond, weather you are a winner or loser
:53:58. > :54:01.this week, more pressure on budgets appears inevitable.
:54:02. > :54:04.And we're joined by Valanteen Mulholland,
:54:05. > :54:06.head of policy at the national association of head teachers.
:54:07. > :54:12.Thank you so much for joining us from Brighton.
:54:13. > :54:21.One of the biggest achievements in government since the 1990s,
:54:22. > :54:25.something they could all put their hands up and say
:54:26. > :54:29.was fixing inner-city schools, making sure hundreds of thousands
:54:30. > :54:31.of young people raise their aspirations and have
:54:32. > :54:34.Why break something that's obviously working so well?
:54:35. > :54:50.I over time there's been an increasing imbalance
:54:51. > :54:52.between inner-city schools other schools, and this fairer
:54:53. > :54:54.funding is to ensure that there is a more
:54:55. > :54:58.And we do have the Pupil Premium, so if there are areas
:54:59. > :55:00.where they need additional funding, then the Pupil Premium
:55:01. > :55:04.And we have to get a better balance and we haven't dashed a better
:55:05. > :55:09.A lot of headteachers have said they will struggle when you take
:55:10. > :55:11.into account that in real terms they are losing money
:55:12. > :55:13.because of increased spending on wages, increased
:55:14. > :55:16.So actually even the schools that are gaining are not
:55:17. > :55:20.I appreciate it very difficult with increasing wages and pensions,
:55:21. > :55:23.But we are still in a very difficult position with the economy.
:55:24. > :55:27.We have to make sure we balance the economy.
:55:28. > :55:30.That there isn't a limitless pot of money.
:55:31. > :55:32.We have to make some tough decisions?
:55:33. > :55:35.The issue is we have the Tory government seeking to
:55:36. > :55:42.We have a situation in Merseyside where, as I understand it,
:55:43. > :55:45.Knowsley will gain whilst Liverpool and Wiral will lose out.
:55:46. > :55:47.Well, you don't hardly think of Knowsley as inner-city.
:55:48. > :55:50.Actually, it seems to me that instead of trying to make sure that
:55:51. > :55:53.all schools are funded decently and making sure that they can cope
:55:54. > :55:56.with pensions increasing and paying our teachers properly,
:55:57. > :55:59.what we've got is the Tories, as usual, seeking to divide people.
:56:00. > :56:01.Well, I don't think that's the right approach.
:56:02. > :56:09.Will it prove to be incredibly divisive?
:56:10. > :56:11.So, the national funding formula had to happen because currently
:56:12. > :56:14.the funding is allocated based on factors from about ten years ago.
:56:15. > :56:19.And a lot of schools and local authorities,
:56:20. > :56:21.characteristics of pupils have changed so fundamentally.
:56:22. > :56:23.The big problem is, so we welcome the fact it's happening,
:56:24. > :56:29.the big problem is that it's happening at a time schools
:56:30. > :56:32.the big problem is that it's happening at a time where schools
:56:33. > :56:33.are seeing enormous real terms cuts in funding.
:56:34. > :56:36.And the National Audit Office published a report on Monday
:56:37. > :56:39.which showed that by 2019, were going to see a drop in funding
:56:40. > :56:41.of 8% because of other government policies.
:56:42. > :56:46.If we didn't have this shortage, then the winners and losers coming
:56:47. > :56:48.out of this formula wouldn't be hit so badly.
:56:49. > :56:51.Do you think any of our parties have a solution when it
:56:52. > :56:55.Do you trust the Labour Party any more than you trust
:56:56. > :57:01.the Conservative Party with educational policy?
:57:02. > :57:08.Taking it outside party politics, we did need this
:57:09. > :57:15.They have tried quite hard to reflect the characteristics
:57:16. > :57:21.of pupils, and we welcome the fact that originally they were going
:57:22. > :57:24.of pupils, and we welcome the fact that originally they were not
:57:25. > :57:27.going to have a factor for schools where there are a lot of pupils
:57:28. > :57:30.moving in and out in every year, so they have
:57:31. > :57:34.The main problem is that people cannot afford to lose even a maximum
:57:35. > :57:36.of 3% that they are going to lose at this time.
:57:37. > :57:40.When you look at some schools, the percentage of young people
:57:41. > :57:43.on free school meals, so a key indicator of poverty,
:57:44. > :57:55.The demographic in that area had changed and they didn't
:57:56. > :58:02.Well, it's a completely fair point that we are the factors that
:58:03. > :58:04.were being taken into account have shifted, of course policy
:58:05. > :58:07.I think that's a completely fair point.
:58:08. > :58:09.But she said something very interesting which is actually
:58:10. > :58:12.the trend in policy over the past six years has been to keep extra
:58:13. > :58:16.As council services were cut, as the careers service was cut,
:58:17. > :58:18.the connections and all of that, those responsibilities
:58:19. > :58:21.And that was never reflected in the funding.
:58:22. > :58:23.That national audit report that will at funding
:58:24. > :58:26.It's something like 3 billion will be cut out of schools.
:58:27. > :58:29.I just think at a time when our country's economic future
:58:30. > :58:31.is deeply uncertain, why are we withdrawing from
:58:32. > :58:39.Did the government not realise when the increased the living wage
:58:40. > :58:41.Did the government not realise when they increased the living wage
:58:42. > :58:44.that they would be sending themselves a massive invoice
:58:45. > :58:48.that they would have to pay at some point?
:58:49. > :58:51.I think there are huge implications from the living wage and all kinds
:58:52. > :58:53.of service providers are going to find it
:58:54. > :58:58.Headteachers will say they will have to compromise children's education.
:58:59. > :59:00.In parts of Manchester, ?80,000 will have to be found
:59:01. > :59:04.You're talking about losing two, maybe three teachers.
:59:05. > :59:06.It's very difficult, but we need to find that right
:59:07. > :59:11.balance between the inner-city and other areas.
:59:12. > :59:12.When you say balance, that's just pitting one
:59:13. > :59:15.I don't think that's the right thing.
:59:16. > :59:18.I think you're just asking for people to point at the other
:59:19. > :59:20.school down the road and say, it's their fault.
:59:21. > :59:22.Whereas actually the problem is in Westminster, isn't it?
:59:23. > :59:29.Over the last six years, 1.4 million more children are going
:59:30. > :59:41.So the government must be doing something right.
:59:42. > :59:52.But you're compromising that by taking some of the money away
:59:53. > :59:55.Aren't you risking that by taking some money away
:59:56. > :59:58.I have no wish with all schools to have money taken away.
:59:59. > :00:01.But we have to have a more balanced situation with limited funding.
:00:02. > :00:03.And that's what we have at the moment.
:00:04. > :00:08.We have to be as fair as possible because were still
:00:09. > :00:11.Overtime, with our economy recovering, I would like to see over
:00:12. > :00:13.time more money coming into the education system.
:00:14. > :00:17.We have had massive increases in costs because of government
:00:18. > :00:19.policies on employers contributions to pensions, national insurance
:00:20. > :00:22.and the move towards the new minimum wage now cold the living wage.
:00:23. > :00:25.But the other impact is very much related to your previous story
:00:26. > :00:29.And what we're finding is the cuts and austerity impact on local
:00:30. > :00:32.authorities means that services like child and adult
:00:33. > :00:33.mental health services, like speech therapy,
:00:34. > :00:35.like all the kind of services that children need to
:00:36. > :00:37.engage with learning, are being cut dramatically.
:00:38. > :00:39.So then schools are having to step in.
:00:40. > :00:41.It's never about one thing in isolation, is it?
:00:42. > :00:43.Many thanks for joining us from Brighton.
:00:44. > :00:44.Plenty more political excitement this week -
:00:45. > :00:50.here's Kevin Fitzpatrick with a roundup.
:00:51. > :00:53.Cowed by the class of '92 - opponents of Salford City's
:00:54. > :00:55.expansion plans say the council's bowed to pressure from
:00:56. > :01:08.We have done petitions and surveys and we know most
:01:09. > :01:11.We are fighting celebrity power and prestige.
:01:12. > :01:13.Small but beautifully formed - Parents and Governors at 22-pupil
:01:14. > :01:15.Pott Shrigley School near Macclesfield gave evidence
:01:16. > :01:17.to councillors on why they shouldn't close it.
:01:18. > :01:19.Unemployment in the region rose by more than 5% over
:01:20. > :01:30.That compares with a slight drop in the jobless total nationally.
:01:31. > :01:33.Fido's furious on the Fylde - or his owners are at least -
:01:34. > :01:36.dog walkers want a rethink over plans to restrict access to beaches
:01:37. > :01:41.and parks and limit the number which can be walked at any one time.
:01:42. > :01:44.We would just like the council to enforce the dog fouling rules
:01:45. > :01:48.Not add more to the responsible dog owners that live in the file.
:01:49. > :01:52.Not add more to the responsible dog owners that live in the Fyld.
:01:53. > :01:53.And information is slightly more freely available
:01:54. > :01:56.on the Isle of Man - FOI requests are being extended
:01:57. > :02:01.That's it from us, and indeed what have been a very
:02:02. > :02:04.Thank you to Alison McGovern and Chris Green.
:02:05. > :02:06.Have a smashing Christmas and I'll see you again on 15 January.
:02:07. > :02:19.Will Article 50 be triggered by the end of March,
:02:20. > :02:23.will President Trump start work on his wall and will
:02:24. > :02:27.Front National's Marine Le Pen provide the next electoral shock?
:02:28. > :02:50.2016, the Brexit for Britain and Trump for the rest of the world.
:02:51. > :02:54.Let's look back and see what one of you said about Brexit.
:02:55. > :02:56.If Mr Cameron loses the referendum and it is this year,
:02:57. > :02:59.will he be Prime Minister at the end of the year?
:03:00. > :03:06.I don't think he will lose the referendum, so I'm feeling
:03:07. > :03:14.It was clear if he did lose the referendum he would be out. I would
:03:15. > :03:19.like to say in retrospect I saw that coming on a long and I was just
:03:20. > :03:25.saying it to make good television! It is Christmas so I will be benign
:03:26. > :03:32.towards my panel! It is possible, Iain, that not much happens to
:03:33. > :03:35.Brexit in 2017, because we have a host of elections coming up in
:03:36. > :03:38.Europe, the French won in the spring and the German one in the autumn
:03:39. > :03:43.will be the most important. And until we know who the next French
:03:44. > :03:49.president is and what condition Mrs Merkel will be in, not much will
:03:50. > :03:54.happen? I think that is the likeliest outcome. Short of some
:03:55. > :04:01.constitutional crisis involving the Lords relating to Brexit, it is
:04:02. > :04:04.pretty clear it is difficult to properly begin the negotiations
:04:05. > :04:08.until it becomes clear who Britain is negotiating with. It will come
:04:09. > :04:12.down to the result of the German election. Germany is the biggest
:04:13. > :04:16.contributor and if they keep power in what is left of the European
:04:17. > :04:22.Union, will drive the negotiation and we will have to see if it will
:04:23. > :04:27.be Merkel. So this vacuum that has been seen and has been filled by
:04:28. > :04:31.people less than friendly to the government, even when we know
:04:32. > :04:36.Article 50 has been triggered and even if there is some sort of white
:04:37. > :04:40.paper to give us a better idea of the broad strategic outlines of what
:04:41. > :04:47.they mean by Brexit, the phoney war could continue? Iain is right. 2017
:04:48. > :04:55.is going to be a remarkably dull year for Brexit as opposed to 2016.
:04:56. > :04:59.We will have the article and a plan. The plan will say I would like the
:05:00. > :05:04.moon on a stick please. The EU will say you can have a tiny bit of moon
:05:05. > :05:09.and a tiny bit of stick and there will be an impasse. That will go on
:05:10. > :05:15.until one minute to midnight 2018 which is when the EU will act. There
:05:16. > :05:20.is one thing in the Foreign Office which is more important, as David
:05:21. > :05:24.Davis Department told me, they know there is nothing they can do until
:05:25. > :05:28.the French and Germans have their elections and they know the lie of
:05:29. > :05:33.the land, but the people who will be more helpful to us are in Eastern
:05:34. > :05:37.Europe and in Scandinavia, the Nordic countries. We can do quite a
:05:38. > :05:41.lot of schmoozing to try and get them broadly on side this year? It
:05:42. > :05:45.is very difficult because one of the things they care most about in
:05:46. > :05:51.Eastern Europe is the ability for Eastern European stew come and work
:05:52. > :05:55.in the UK. That is key to the economic prospects. But what they
:05:56. > :06:00.care most about is that those already here should not be under any
:06:01. > :06:05.pressure to leave. There is no guarantee of that. That is what Mrs
:06:06. > :06:10.May wants. There are a lot of things Mrs May wants and the story of 2017
:06:11. > :06:14.will be about what she gets. How much have we got to give people? It
:06:15. > :06:20.is not what we want, but what we are willing to give. The interesting
:06:21. > :06:24.thing is you can divide this out into two. There is a question of the
:06:25. > :06:31.European Union and our relationship with it but there is also the trick
:06:32. > :06:37.the polls did to London -- there is also the polls. There is question
:06:38. > :06:41.beyond the Western European security, that is about Nato and
:06:42. > :06:47.intelligence and security, and the rising Russian threat. That does not
:06:48. > :06:51.mean the Polish people will persuade everyone else to give us a lovely
:06:52. > :06:56.deal on the EU, but the dynamic is bigger than just a chat about
:06:57. > :06:59.Brexit. You cannot threaten a punishment beating for us if we are
:07:00. > :07:04.putting our soldiers on the line on the eastern borders of Europe. I
:07:05. > :07:09.think that's where Donald Trump changes the calculation because his
:07:10. > :07:17.attitude towards Russia is very different to Barack Obama's. It is
:07:18. > :07:22.indeed. Mentioning Russia, Brexit was a global story but nothing can
:07:23. > :07:26.match and American election and even one which gives Donald Trump as
:07:27. > :07:30.well. Let's have a look at what this panel was saying about Donald Trump.
:07:31. > :07:32.Will Donald Trump win the Republican nomination next year.
:07:33. > :07:45.So, not only did you think he would not be president, you did not think
:07:46. > :07:50.he would win the Republican nomination. We were not alone in
:07:51. > :07:54.that. And they're right put forward a motion to abolish punditry here
:07:55. > :08:00.now because clearly we are pointless! There is enough
:08:01. > :08:04.unemployment in the world already! We are moving into huge and charted
:08:05. > :08:08.territory with Donald Trump as president. It is incredibly
:08:09. > :08:16.unpredictable. But what has not been noticed enough is the Keynesian won.
:08:17. > :08:22.Trump is a Keynesian. He wants massive infrastructure spending and
:08:23. > :08:27.massive tax cuts. The big story next year will be the massive reflation
:08:28. > :08:34.of the American economy and indeed the US Federal reserve has already
:08:35. > :08:39.reacted to that by putting up interest rates. That is why he has a
:08:40. > :08:42.big fight with the rest of the Republican Party. He is nominally a
:08:43. > :08:48.Republican but they are not Keynesian. They are when it comes to
:08:49. > :08:53.tax cuts. They are when it hits the rich to benefit the poor. The big
:08:54. > :08:57.thing is whether the infrastructure projects land him in crony trouble.
:08:58. > :09:01.The transparency around who gets those will be extremely difficult.
:09:02. > :09:06.Most of the infrastructure spending he thinks can be done by the private
:09:07. > :09:13.sector and not the federal government. His tax cuts overlap the
:09:14. > :09:18.Republican house tax cuts speaker Ryan to give not all, but a fair
:09:19. > :09:23.chunk of what he wants. If the American economy is going to reflate
:09:24. > :09:28.next year, interest rates will rise in America, that will strengthen the
:09:29. > :09:32.dollar and it will mean that Europe will be, it will find it more
:09:33. > :09:36.difficult to finance its sovereign debt because you will get more money
:09:37. > :09:43.by investing in American sovereign debt. That is a good point because
:09:44. > :09:47.the dynamics will shift. If that happens, Trump will be pretty
:09:48. > :09:54.popular in the US. To begin with. To begin with. It is energy
:09:55. > :10:00.self-sufficient and if you can pull off the biggest trick in American
:10:01. > :10:05.politics which is somehow to via corporation tax cuts to allow the
:10:06. > :10:08.reassuring of wealth, because it is too expensive for American business
:10:09. > :10:11.to take back into the US and reinvest, if you combine all of
:10:12. > :10:18.those things together, you will end up with a boom on a scale you have
:10:19. > :10:24.not seen. It will be Reagan on steroids? What could possibly go
:10:25. > :10:29.wrong? In the short term for Britain, it is probably not bad
:10:30. > :10:33.news. Our biggest market for exports as a country is the United States.
:10:34. > :10:37.Our biggest market for foreign direct investment is the United
:10:38. > :10:41.States and the same is true vice versa for America in Britain. Given
:10:42. > :10:44.the pound is now competitive and likely the dollar will get stronger,
:10:45. > :10:50.it could well give a boost to the British economy? Could do bit you
:10:51. > :10:55.have to be slightly cautious about the warm language we are getting
:10:56. > :11:00.which is great news out of President Trump's future cabinet on doing a
:11:01. > :11:04.trade deal early, we are net exporters to the US. We benefit far
:11:05. > :11:08.more from trading with US than they do with us. I think we have to come
:11:09. > :11:14.up with something to offer the US for them to jump into bed with us. I
:11:15. > :11:24.think it is called two new aircraft carriers and modernising the fleet.
:11:25. > :11:28.Bring it on. I will raise caution, people in declining industries in
:11:29. > :11:32.some places in America, the rust belt who have faced big profound
:11:33. > :11:38.structural challenges and those are much harder to reverse. They face
:11:39. > :11:43.real problems now because the dollar is so strong. Their ability to
:11:44. > :11:47.export has taken a huge hit out of Ohio, Michigan and Illinois. And the
:11:48. > :11:53.Mexican imports into America is now dirt cheap so that is a major
:11:54. > :12:01.problem. Next year we have elections in Austria, France, the Netherlands,
:12:02. > :12:07.Germany, probably Italy. Which outcome will be the most dramatic
:12:08. > :12:14.for Brexit? If Merkel lost it would be a huge surprise. That is
:12:15. > :12:22.unlikely. And if it was not Filon in France that would be unlikely. The
:12:23. > :12:26.consensus it it will be Francois Filon against Marine Le Pen and it
:12:27. > :12:36.will be uniting around the far right candidate. In 2002, that is what
:12:37. > :12:47.happened. Filon is a Thatcherite. Marine Le Pen's politics --
:12:48. > :12:51.economics are hard left. Francois Filon is as much a cert to win as
:12:52. > :12:56.Hillary Clinton was this time last year. If he is competing against
:12:57. > :13:04.concerns about rising globalisation and his pitch is Thatcherite, it is
:13:05. > :13:11.a bold, brave strategy in the context so we will see. It will keep
:13:12. > :13:19.us busy next year, Tom? Almost as busy as this year but not quite.
:13:20. > :13:21.This year was a record year. I am up in my hours!
:13:22. > :13:23.That's all for today, thanks to all my guests.
:13:24. > :13:26.The Daily Politics will be back on BBC Two at noon tomorrow.
:13:27. > :13:28.I'll be back here on the 15th January.
:13:29. > :13:31.Remember, if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.
:13:32. > :14:13.The most a writer can hope from a reader