:00:36. > :00:41.It's Sunday Morning and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:42. > :00:44.The Chancellor says that to embark on a spending spree
:00:45. > :00:47.in Wednesday's Budget would be "reckless".
:00:48. > :00:49.But will there be more money for social care and to ease
:00:50. > :00:55.The UK terror threat is currently severe,
:00:56. > :00:58.but where is that threat coming from?
:00:59. > :01:00.We have the detailed picture from a vast new study of every
:01:01. > :01:05.Islamist related terrorist offence committed over the last two decades.
:01:06. > :01:11.What can we learn from these offences to thwart future attacks?
:01:12. > :01:13.The government was defeated in the Lords on its
:01:14. > :01:19.We'll ask the Leader of the House of Commons what he'll do if peers
:01:20. > :01:26.Plus, will our Metro majors help the wheels on the bus go
:01:27. > :01:40.All that coming up in the next hour and a quarter.
:01:41. > :01:43.Now, some of you might have read that intruders managed
:01:44. > :01:46.to get into the BBC news studios this weekend.
:01:47. > :01:49.Well three of them appear not to have been ejected yet,
:01:50. > :01:52.so we might as well make use of them as our political panel.
:01:53. > :01:55.Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards.
:01:56. > :02:00.They'll be tweeting throughout the programme.
:02:01. > :02:05.Philip Hammond will deliver his second financial
:02:06. > :02:07.statement as Chancellor and the last Spring Budget
:02:08. > :02:11.for a while at least - they are moving to the Autumn
:02:12. > :02:14.There's been pressure on him to find more money
:02:15. > :02:16.for the Health Service, social care, schools funding,
:02:17. > :02:21.But this morning the Chancellor insisted that he will not be
:02:22. > :02:24.using the proceeds of better than expected tax receipts to embark
:02:25. > :02:36.What is being speculated on is whether we might not have borrowed
:02:37. > :02:42.quite as much as we were forecast to borrow. You will see the numbers on
:02:43. > :02:47.Wednesday. But if your bank increases your credit card limit, I
:02:48. > :02:49.do not think you feel obliged to go out and spent every last penny of it
:02:50. > :03:01.He is moving the budget to the autumn, he told us that in his
:03:02. > :03:07.statement, so maybe on Wednesday it will be like a spring statement
:03:08. > :03:10.rather than a full-blown budget. Tinkering pre-Brexit and in November
:03:11. > :03:14.he will have a more clear idea of the impact of Brexit and I suspect
:03:15. > :03:20.that will be the bigger event than this one. It looks as if there will
:03:21. > :03:24.be a bit of money here and there, small amounts, not enough in my
:03:25. > :03:30.view, for social care and so on, possibly a review of social care
:03:31. > :03:34.policy. A familiar device which rarely get anywhere. I think he has
:03:35. > :03:38.got a bit more space to do more if he wanted to do now because of the
:03:39. > :03:44.politics. They are miles ahead in the polls, so he could do more, but
:03:45. > :03:50.it is not in his character, he is cautious. So he keeps his powder dry
:03:51. > :03:57.on most things, he does some things, but he keeps it dry until November.
:03:58. > :04:01.But also, as Steve says, he will know just how strong the economy has
:04:02. > :04:04.been this year by November and whether he needs to do some pump
:04:05. > :04:11.priming or whether everything is fine. He said it is too early to
:04:12. > :04:15.make those sorts of judgments now. What is striking is the amount of
:04:16. > :04:19.concern there is an Number ten and in the Treasury about the tone of
:04:20. > :04:23.this budget, so less about the actual figures and more about what
:04:24. > :04:29.message this is sending out to the rest of the world. I think some
:04:30. > :04:33.senior MPs are calling it a kind of treading water budget and Phil
:04:34. > :04:36.Hammond has got quite a difficult act to perform because he is
:04:37. > :04:43.instinctively rather cautious, or very cautious, and instinctively
:04:44. > :04:48.slightly gloomy about Brexit. He wanted to remain. But he does not
:04:49. > :04:53.want this budget to sounded downbeat and he will be mauled if he makes it
:04:54. > :04:57.sound downbeat, so he has to inject a little bit of optimism and we may
:04:58. > :05:02.see that in the infrastructure spending plans. He has got some room
:05:03. > :05:06.to manoeuvre. The deficit by the financial year ending in April we
:05:07. > :05:11.now know will not be as big as the OBR told us only three and a half
:05:12. > :05:16.months ago that it would be. They added 12 billion on and they may
:05:17. > :05:19.take most of that off again. He is under pressure from his own side to
:05:20. > :05:24.do something on social care and business rates and I bet some Tory
:05:25. > :05:29.backbenchers would not mind a little bit more money for the NHS as well.
:05:30. > :05:35.He is on a huge pressure to do a whole lot on a whole load, not just
:05:36. > :05:42.social care. There is also how on earth do we pay for so many old
:05:43. > :05:47.people? There is the NHS, defence spending, everything. But his words
:05:48. > :05:51.this morning, which is I am not going to spend potentially an extra
:05:52. > :05:57.30 billion I might have by 2020 because of improved economic growth
:05:58. > :06:03.was interesting. You need to hold something back because Brexit might
:06:04. > :06:09.go back and he was a bit of a remain campaign person. If you think
:06:10. > :06:13.Britain is going to curl up into a corner and hideaway licking its
:06:14. > :06:17.wounds, you have got another think coming. That 30 billion he might
:06:18. > :06:23.have extra in his pocket could be worth deploying on building up
:06:24. > :06:29.Britain with huge tax cuts in case there is no deal, a war chest if you
:06:30. > :06:33.like. He will have more than 27 billion. He may decide 27 billion in
:06:34. > :06:38.the statement, the margin by which he tries to get the structural
:06:39. > :06:43.deficit down, he will still have 27 billion. If the receipts are better
:06:44. > :06:50.than they are forecast, some people are saying he will have a war chest
:06:51. > :06:56.of 60 billion. That money, as Mr Osborne found out, can disappear. He
:06:57. > :07:02.clearly is planning not to go on a spending spree this Wednesday. It is
:07:03. > :07:06.interesting in the FTB and the day, David Laws who was chief Secretary
:07:07. > :07:10.for five minutes, was also enthusiastic about the original
:07:11. > :07:14.George Osborne austerity programme and he said, we have reached the
:07:15. > :07:17.limits to what is socially possible with this and a consensus is
:07:18. > :07:23.beginning to emerge that he will have to spend more money than he
:07:24. > :07:28.plans to this Wednesday. This is not just from Labour MPs, but from a lot
:07:29. > :07:32.of Conservative MPs as well. People will wonder when this austerity will
:07:33. > :07:34.end because it seems to be going on for ever. We will have more on the
:07:35. > :07:37.budget later in the programme. Now, the government was defeated
:07:38. > :07:40.last week in the House of Lords. Peers amended the bill that
:07:41. > :07:43.will allow Theresa May to trigger Brexit to guarantee the rights of EU
:07:44. > :07:46.nationals currently in the UK. The government says it will remove
:07:47. > :07:49.the amendment when the bill returns But today a report from
:07:50. > :07:54.the Common's Brexit committee also calls for the Government to make
:07:55. > :07:58.a unilateral decision to safeguard the rights of EU
:07:59. > :08:03.nationals living here. If the worst happened,
:08:04. > :08:06.are we actually going to say to 3 million Europeans here,
:08:07. > :08:09.who are nurses, doctors, serving us tea and coffee in restaurants,
:08:10. > :08:14.giving lectures at Leeds University, picking and processing vegetables,
:08:15. > :08:16."Right, off you go"? No, of course we are not
:08:17. > :08:19.going to say that. So, why not end the
:08:20. > :08:21.uncertainty for them now? will help to create the climate
:08:22. > :08:25.which will ensure everyone gets to say because that's
:08:26. > :08:35.what all of us want. That is why we have unanimously
:08:36. > :08:41.agreed this recommendation that the government should make unilateral
:08:42. > :08:45.decision to say to EU citizens here, yes, you can stay, because we think
:08:46. > :08:46.that is the right and fair thing to do.
:08:47. > :08:49.And we're joined now from Buckinghamshire by the leader
:08:50. > :08:52.of the House of Commons, David Lidington.
:08:53. > :08:58.Welcome back to the programme. The House of Lords has amended the
:08:59. > :09:02.Article 50 bill to allow the unilateral acceptance of EU
:09:03. > :09:05.nationals' right to remain in the UK. Is it still the government was
:09:06. > :09:12.my intention to remove that amendment in the comments? We have
:09:13. > :09:15.always been clear that we think this bill is very straightforward, it
:09:16. > :09:21.does nothing else except give the Prime Minister the authority that
:09:22. > :09:25.the courts insist upon to start the Article 50 process of negotiating
:09:26. > :09:32.with the other 27 EU countries. On the particular issue of EU citizens
:09:33. > :09:39.here and British citizens overseas, the PM did suggest that the December
:09:40. > :09:45.European summit last year that we do a pre-negotiation agreement on this.
:09:46. > :09:49.That was not acceptable to all of the other 27 because they took the
:09:50. > :09:53.view that you cannot have any kind of negotiation and to Article 50 has
:09:54. > :09:58.been triggered. That is where we are. I hope with goodwill and
:09:59. > :10:03.national self interest on all sides we can tackle this is right that the
:10:04. > :10:06.start of those negotiations. But it is not just the Lords. We have now
:10:07. > :10:12.got the cross-party Commons Brexit committee saying you should now make
:10:13. > :10:20.the unilateral decision to safeguard the rights of EU nationals in the
:10:21. > :10:26.UK. Even Michael go, Peter Lilley, John Whittington, agree. So why are
:10:27. > :10:30.you so stubborn on this issue? I think this is a complex issue that
:10:31. > :10:35.goes beyond the rise of presidents, but about things like the rights of
:10:36. > :10:43.access to health care, to pension ratings and benefits and so on...
:10:44. > :10:48.But you could settle back. It is also, Andrew, because you have got
:10:49. > :10:52.to look at it from the point of view of the British citizens, well over 1
:10:53. > :10:57.million living elsewhere in Europe. If we make the unilateral gesture,
:10:58. > :11:01.it might make us feel good for Britain and it would help in the
:11:02. > :11:06.short term those EU citizens who are here, but you have got those British
:11:07. > :11:11.citizens overseas who would then be potential bargaining chips in the
:11:12. > :11:16.hands of any of the 27 other governments. We do not know who will
:11:17. > :11:21.be in office during the negotiations and they may have completely
:11:22. > :11:25.extraneous reasons to hold up the agreement on the rights of British
:11:26. > :11:30.citizens. The sensible way to deal with this is 28 mature democracies
:11:31. > :11:33.getting around the table starting the negotiations and to agree to
:11:34. > :11:40.something that is fair to all sides and is reciprocal. What countries
:11:41. > :11:47.might take on UK nationals living in the EU? What countries are you
:11:48. > :11:51.frightened of? The one thing that I know from my own experience in the
:11:52. > :11:57.past of being involved in European negotiations is that issues come up
:11:58. > :12:04.that maybe have nothing to do with British nationals, but another issue
:12:05. > :12:08.that matters a huge amount to a particular government, it may not be
:12:09. > :12:13.a government yet in office, and they decide we can get something out of
:12:14. > :12:16.this, so let's hold up the agreement on British citizens until the
:12:17. > :12:22.British move in the direction we want on issue X. I hope it does not
:12:23. > :12:27.come to that. I think the messages I have had from EU ambassadors in
:12:28. > :12:32.London and from those it my former Europe colleague ministers is that
:12:33. > :12:36.we want this to be a done deal as quickly as possible. That is the
:12:37. > :12:41.British Government's very clear intention. We hope that we can get a
:12:42. > :12:45.reciprocal deal agreed before the Article 50 process. That was not
:12:46. > :12:51.possible. I understand that, you have said that already. But even if
:12:52. > :12:56.there is no reciprocal deal being done, is it really credible that EU
:12:57. > :13:02.nationals already here would lose their right to live and work and
:13:03. > :13:10.face deportation? You know that is not credible, that will not happen.
:13:11. > :13:14.We have already under our own system law whereby some people who have
:13:15. > :13:19.been lawfully resident and working here for five years can apply for
:13:20. > :13:23.permanent residency, but it is not just about residents. It is about
:13:24. > :13:27.whether residency carries with it certain rights of access to health
:13:28. > :13:35.care. I understand that, but have made this point. But the point is
:13:36. > :13:40.the right to live and work here that worries them at the moment. The Home
:13:41. > :13:46.Secretary has said there can be no change in their status without a
:13:47. > :13:48.vote in parliament. Could you ever imagine the British Parliament
:13:49. > :13:55.voting to remove their right to live and work here? I think the British
:13:56. > :14:02.Parliament will want to be very fair to EU citizens, as Hilary Benn and
:14:03. > :14:06.others rightly say they have been overwhelmingly been here working
:14:07. > :14:10.hard and paying taxes and contributing to our society. They
:14:11. > :14:15.were equally want to make sure there is a fair deal for our own citizens,
:14:16. > :14:18.more than a million, elsewhere in Europe. You cannot disentangle the
:14:19. > :14:24.issue of residence from those things that go with residents. Is the
:14:25. > :14:28.Article 50 timetabled to be triggered before the end of this
:14:29. > :14:33.month, is it threatened by these amendments in the Lords? I sincerely
:14:34. > :14:38.hope not because the House of Lords is a perfectly respectable
:14:39. > :14:42.constitutional role to look again at bills sent up by the House of
:14:43. > :14:49.commons. But they also have understood traditionally that as an
:14:50. > :14:53.unelected house they have to give primacy to the elected Commons at
:14:54. > :14:58.the end of the day. In this case it is not just the elected Commons that
:14:59. > :15:07.sent the bill to be amended, but the referendum that lies behind that. It
:15:08. > :15:09.is not possible? We are confident we can get Article 50 triggered by the
:15:10. > :15:17.end of the month. One of the other Lords amendments
:15:18. > :15:21.will be to have a meaningful vote on the Brexit deal when it is done at
:15:22. > :15:26.the end of the process, what is your view on that? What would you
:15:27. > :15:31.understand by a meaningful vote? The Government has already said there is
:15:32. > :15:37.going to be a meaningful vote at the end of the process. What do you mean
:15:38. > :15:40.by a meaningful vote? The parliament will get the opportunity to vote on
:15:41. > :15:43.the deal before it finishes the EU level process of going to
:15:44. > :15:50.consideration by the European Parliament. Parliament will be given
:15:51. > :15:57.a choice, as I understand, for either a vote for the deal you have
:15:58. > :16:02.negotiated or we leave on WTO rules and crash out anyway, is that what
:16:03. > :16:06.you mean by a meaningful choice? Parliament will get the choice to
:16:07. > :16:11.vote on the deal, but I think you have put your finger on the problem
:16:12. > :16:18.with trying to write something into the bill because any idea that the
:16:19. > :16:25.PM's freedom to negotiate is limited, any idea that if the EU 27
:16:26. > :16:29.were to play hardball, that somehow that means parliament would take
:16:30. > :16:32.fright, reverse the referendum verdict and set aside the views of
:16:33. > :16:37.the British people, that would almost guarantee that it would be
:16:38. > :16:43.much more difficult to get the sort of ambitious mutually beneficial
:16:44. > :16:47.deal for us and the EU 27. Your idea of a meaningful vote in parliament
:16:48. > :16:52.is the choices either to vote to accept this deal or we leave anyway,
:16:53. > :16:59.that is your idea of a meaningful vote. The Article 50 process is
:17:00. > :17:04.straightforward. There is the position of both parties in the
:17:05. > :17:12.recent Supreme Court case that the Article 50 process once triggered is
:17:13. > :17:18.irrevocable. That is in the EU Treaty already but we are saying
:17:19. > :17:24.very clearly that Parliament will get that right to debate and vote. I
:17:25. > :17:29.think the problem with what some in the House of Lords are proposing, I
:17:30. > :17:33.hope it is not a majority, is that the amendments they would seek to
:17:34. > :17:36.insert would tie the Prime Minister's hands, limit and
:17:37. > :17:39.negotiating freedom and put her in a more difficult position to negotiate
:17:40. > :17:44.on behalf of this country than should be the case. One year ago you
:17:45. > :17:49.said it could take six to eight years to agree a free-trade deal
:17:50. > :17:55.with the EU. Now you think you can do it in two, what's changed your
:17:56. > :18:09.mind? There is a very strong passionate supporter of Remain, as
:18:10. > :18:12.you know. I hope very much we are able to conclude not just the terms
:18:13. > :18:18.of the exit deal but the agreement that we are seeking on the long-term
:18:19. > :18:24.trade relationship... I understand that, but I'm trying to work out,
:18:25. > :18:29.what makes you think you can do it in two years when only a year ago
:18:30. > :18:35.you said it would take up to wait? The referendum clearly makes a big
:18:36. > :18:41.difference, and I think that there is an understanding amongst real the
:18:42. > :18:47.other 27 governments now that it is in everybody's interests to sort
:18:48. > :18:52.this shared challenge out of negotiating a new relationship
:18:53. > :18:56.between the EU 27 and the UK because European countries, those in and
:18:57. > :19:05.those who will be out of the EU, share the need to face up to massive
:19:06. > :19:08.challenges like terrorism and technological change. All of that
:19:09. > :19:11.was pretty obvious one year ago but we will see what happens. Thank you,
:19:12. > :19:13.David Lidington. Now, the Sunday Politics has had
:19:14. > :19:15.sight of a major new report The thousand-page study,
:19:16. > :19:21.which researchers say is the most comprehensive ever produced,
:19:22. > :19:26.analyses all 269 Islamist telated terrorist offences
:19:27. > :19:29.committed between 1998-2015. Most planned attacks were,
:19:30. > :19:31.thankfully, thwarted, but what can we learn
:19:32. > :19:33.from those offences? For the police and the intelligence
:19:34. > :19:42.agencies to fight terror, Researchers at the security think
:19:43. > :19:50.tank The Henry Jackson Society gave us early access to their huge
:19:51. > :20:00.new report which analyses every Islamism related attack
:20:01. > :20:02.and prosecution in the UK since 1998, that's 269 cases
:20:03. > :20:06.involving 253 perpetrators. With issues as sensitive
:20:07. > :20:08.as counterterrorism and counter radicalisation, it is really
:20:09. > :20:11.important to have an evidence base from which you draw
:20:12. > :20:13.policy and policing, This isn't my opinion,
:20:14. > :20:17.this the facts. This chart shows the number
:20:18. > :20:20.of cases each year combined with a small number
:20:21. > :20:24.of successful suicide attacks. Notice the peak in the middle
:20:25. > :20:27.of the last decade around the time of the 7/7 bombings
:20:28. > :20:30.in London in 2005. Offences tailed off,
:20:31. > :20:34.before rising again from 2010, when a three-year period accounted
:20:35. > :20:37.for a third of all the terrorism cases since the researchers
:20:38. > :20:42.started counting. What we are seeing is a combination
:20:43. > :20:45.of both more offending, in terms of the threat increasing,
:20:46. > :20:48.we know that from the security services and police statements,
:20:49. > :20:51.but also I believe we are getting more efficient in terms
:20:52. > :20:54.of our policing and we are actually A third of people were found to have
:20:55. > :21:02.facilitated terrorism, that's providing encouragement,
:21:03. > :21:05.documents, money. About 18% of people
:21:06. > :21:08.were aspirational terrorists, 12% of convictions were related
:21:09. > :21:15.to travel, to training And 37% of people were convicted
:21:16. > :21:23.of planning attacks, although the methods have
:21:24. > :21:27.changed over time. Five or six years ago,
:21:28. > :21:31.we saw lots of people planning or attempting pipe bombs and most
:21:32. > :21:34.of the time they had Inspire magazine in their possession,
:21:35. > :21:37.that's a magazine, an Al-Qaeda English-language online
:21:38. > :21:38.magazine that had specific More recently we have seen
:21:39. > :21:44.Islamic State encouraging people to engage in lower tech knife
:21:45. > :21:46.beheading, stabbings attacks and I think that's why we have
:21:47. > :21:49.seen that more recently. Shasta Khan plotted with her
:21:50. > :21:53.husband to bomb the Jewish In 2012 she received
:21:54. > :21:58.an eight-year prison sentence. She's one of an increasing
:21:59. > :22:03.number of women convicted of an Islamism related offence
:22:04. > :22:06.although it is still overwhelmingly a crime carried out
:22:07. > :22:09.by men in their 20s. Despite fears of foreign terrorists,
:22:10. > :22:11.a report says the vast Most have their home in London,
:22:12. > :22:20.around 43% of them. 18% lived in the West Midlands,
:22:21. > :22:23.particularly in Birmingham, and the north-west is another
:22:24. > :22:26.hotspot with around 10% Richard Dart lived in Weymouth
:22:27. > :22:33.and tried to attend a terrorist He was a convert to Islam, as were
:22:34. > :22:42.60% of the people in this report. He was a convert to Islam, as were
:22:43. > :22:45.16% of the people in this report. Like the majority of cases,
:22:46. > :22:48.he had a family, network. What's particularly interesting
:22:49. > :22:51.is how different each story is in many ways,
:22:52. > :22:54.but then within those differences So your angry young men,
:22:55. > :23:02.in the one sense inspired to travel, seek training and combat experience
:23:03. > :23:09.abroad, and then the older, recruiter father-figure types,
:23:10. > :23:11.the fundraising facilitator types. There are types within
:23:12. > :23:14.this terrorism picture, but the range of backgrounds
:23:15. > :23:19.and experiences is huge. And three quarters of those
:23:20. > :23:22.convicted of Islamist terrorism were on the radar of the authorities
:23:23. > :23:25.because they had a previous criminal record, they had
:23:26. > :23:28.made their extremism public, or because MI5 had them
:23:29. > :23:34.under surveillance. To discuss the findings of this
:23:35. > :23:41.report are the former Security Minister Pauline Neville-Jones,
:23:42. > :23:43.Talha Ahmad from the Muslim Council of Britain, and Adam Deen
:23:44. > :23:58.from the anti-extremist group The report finds the most segregated
:23:59. > :24:04.Muslim community is, the more likely it is to incubate Islamist
:24:05. > :24:09.terrorists, what is the MCB doing to encourage more integrated
:24:10. > :24:13.communities? Its track record on calling for reaching out to the
:24:14. > :24:17.wider society and having a more integrated and cohesive society I
:24:18. > :24:22.think is a pretty strong one, so one thing we are doing for example very
:24:23. > :24:27.recently I've seen we had this visit my mosque initiative, the idea was
:24:28. > :24:29.that mosques become open to inviting people of other faiths and their
:24:30. > :24:36.neighbours to come so we were encouraged to see so many
:24:37. > :24:42.participating. It is one step forward. Is it a good thing or a bad
:24:43. > :24:47.thing that in a number of Muslim communities, the Muslim population
:24:48. > :24:50.is over 60% of the community? I personally and the council would
:24:51. > :24:54.prefer to have more mixed communities but one of the reason
:24:55. > :24:58.they are heavily concentrated is not so much because they prefer to but
:24:59. > :25:04.often because the socio- economic reality forces them to. But you
:25:05. > :25:07.would like to see less segregation? Absolutely, we would prefer more
:25:08. > :25:12.diverse communities around the country. What is your reaction to
:25:13. > :25:17.that? Will need more diverse communities but one of the
:25:18. > :25:20.challenges we have right now with certain organisations is this
:25:21. > :25:24.pushback against the Government, with its attempts to help young
:25:25. > :25:29.Muslims not go down this journey of extremism. One of those things is
:25:30. > :25:32.the Prevent strategy and we often hear organisations like the MCB
:25:33. > :25:38.attacking the strategy which is counter-productive. What do you say
:25:39. > :25:44.to that? Do we support the Government have initiatives to
:25:45. > :25:49.counteract terrorism, of course we do. Do you support the Prevent
:25:50. > :25:55.strategy? We don't because it scapegoats an entire community. The
:25:56. > :25:59.report shows that contrary to a lot of lone wolf theories and people
:26:00. > :26:02.being radicalised in their bedrooms on the Internet that 80% of those
:26:03. > :26:22.convicted had connections with the extremist groups. Indeed 25% willing
:26:23. > :26:29.to Al-Muhajiroun. I think this report, which is a thorough piece of
:26:30. > :26:33.work, charts a long period and it is probably true to say that in the
:26:34. > :26:37.earlier stages these organisations were very important, of course
:26:38. > :26:43.subsequently we have had direct recruiting by IS one to one over the
:26:44. > :26:47.Internet so we have a mixed picture of how people are recruited but
:26:48. > :26:51.there's no doubt these organisations are recruiting sergeants. You were
:26:52. > :26:59.once a member of one of these organisations, are we doing enough
:27:00. > :27:09.to thwart them? If we just focus on these organisations, we will fail.
:27:10. > :27:12.We -- the question is are we doing enough to neutralise them? The
:27:13. > :27:17.Government strategy is in the right place, but where we need to focus on
:27:18. > :27:23.is the Muslim community or communities. The Muslim community
:27:24. > :27:27.must realise that these violent extremists are fringe but they share
:27:28. > :27:31.ideas, a broad spectrum of ideas that penetrate deeply within Muslim
:27:32. > :27:35.communities and we need to tackle those ideas because that is where it
:27:36. > :27:42.all begins. Are you in favour of banning groups like Al-Muhajiroun?
:27:43. > :27:47.Yes, it was the right thing to do and I can tell you the community has
:27:48. > :27:55.moved a long way, Al-Muhajiroun does not have support. Do you agree with
:27:56. > :28:02.that? Yes, but it is very simplistic attacking Al-Muhajiroun. ISIS didn't
:28:03. > :28:07.bring about extremism, extremism brought about ISIS, ISIS is just the
:28:08. > :28:11.brand and if we don't deal with the ideological ideas we will have other
:28:12. > :28:18.organisations popping up. The report suggests that almost a quarter of
:28:19. > :28:24.Islamist the latest offences were committed by individuals previous
:28:25. > :28:28.unknown to the security services. And this is on the rise, these
:28:29. > :28:30.numbers. This would seem to make an already difficult task for our
:28:31. > :28:38.intelligence services almost impossible. Two points. It is over
:28:39. > :28:46.80% I think were known, but it shows the intelligence services and police
:28:47. > :28:51.have got their eyes open. But the trend has been towards more not on
:28:52. > :28:56.the radar. That has been because the nature of the recruitment has also
:28:57. > :29:04.changed and you have much more ISIS inspired go out and do it yourself,
:29:05. > :29:09.get a knife, do something simple, so we have fewer of the big
:29:10. > :29:18.spectaculars that ISIS organised. Now you have got locally organised
:29:19. > :29:22.people, two or three people get together, do something together,
:29:23. > :29:29.very much harder actually to get forewarning of that. That is where
:29:30. > :29:35.intelligence inside the community, the community coming to the police
:29:36. > :29:40.say I'm worried about my friend, this is how you get ahead of that
:29:41. > :29:44.kind of attack. Should people in the Muslim community who are worried
:29:45. > :29:47.about individuals being radicalised, perhaps going down the terrorist
:29:48. > :29:53.route, should they bring in the police? Absolutely and we have been
:29:54. > :29:58.consistent on telling the community that wherever they suspect someone
:29:59. > :30:01.has been involved in terrorism or any kind of criminal activity, they
:30:02. > :30:09.should call the police and cooperate. As the so-called
:30:10. > :30:11.caliphate collapses in the Middle East, how worried should we be about
:30:12. > :30:24.fighters returning here? Extremely worried. They fall into
:30:25. > :30:28.three categories. You have ones who are disillusioned about Islamic
:30:29. > :30:31.State. You have ones who are disturbed, and then you have the
:30:32. > :30:37.dangerous who have not disavowed their ideas and who will have great
:30:38. > :30:43.reasons to perform attacks. What do we do? Anyone who comes back, there
:30:44. > :30:50.should be evidence looked into if they committed any crimes. But all
:30:51. > :30:54.those categories should all be be radicalised. You cannot leave them
:30:55. > :31:00.alone. Will we be sure if we know when they come back? That is
:31:01. > :31:06.difficult to say. They could come in and we might not know. There is a
:31:07. > :31:14.watch list so you have got a better chance. And you can identify them?
:31:15. > :31:17.This is where working with other countries is absolutely crucial and
:31:18. > :31:21.our border controls need to be good as well. I am not saying and the
:31:22. > :31:26.government is not saying that anyone would ever slip through, but it is
:31:27. > :31:31.our ability to know when somebody is coming through and to stop them at
:31:32. > :31:35.the border has improved. An important question. Given your
:31:36. > :31:43.experience, how prepared are away for a Paris style attack in a
:31:44. > :31:47.medium-size, provincial city? The government has exercised this one.
:31:48. > :31:51.It started when I was security minister and it has been taken
:31:52. > :31:56.seriously. The single biggest challenge that the police and the
:31:57. > :31:59.Army says will be one of those mobile, roving attacks. You have to
:32:00. > :32:03.take it seriously and the government does. All right, we will leave it
:32:04. > :32:07.Now, Brexit may have swept austerity from the front pages,
:32:08. > :32:10.but the deficit hasn't gone away and the government is still
:32:11. > :32:13.Just this week Whitehall announced that government departments have
:32:14. > :32:17.been told to find another ?3.5bn worth of savings by 2020.
:32:18. > :32:20.Last November the Independent office for Budget Responsibility
:32:21. > :32:23.said the budget deficit would be ?68 billion in the current
:32:24. > :32:29.It would still be ?17 billion by 2021-22.
:32:30. > :32:31.On Wednesday the Chancellor is expected to announce
:32:32. > :32:37.that the 2016-17 deficit has come in much lower than the OBR forecast.
:32:38. > :32:40.Even so, the government is still aiming for the lowest level
:32:41. > :32:46.of public spending as a percentage of national income since 2003-4,
:32:47. > :32:49.coupled with an increase in the tax burden to its highest
:32:50. > :32:54.So spending cuts will continue with reductions in day-to-day
:32:55. > :32:58.government spending accelerating, producing a real terms cut of over
:32:59. > :33:05.But capital spending, investment on infrastructure
:33:06. > :33:09.like roads, hospitals, housing, is projected to grow,
:33:10. > :33:14.producing a 16 billion real terms increase by 2021-22.
:33:15. > :33:18.The Chancellor's task on Wednesday is to keep these fiscal targets
:33:19. > :33:21.while finding some more money for areas under serious
:33:22. > :33:28.pressure such as the NHS, social care and business rates.
:33:29. > :33:33.We're joined now by Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies.
:33:34. > :33:40.Welcome back to the programme. In last March's budget the OBR
:33:41. > :33:44.predicted just over 2% economic growth for this year. By the Autumn
:33:45. > :33:49.Statement in the wake of the Brexit vote it downgraded back to 1.4%. It
:33:50. > :33:55.is now expected to revise that back around to 2% as the Bank of England
:33:56. > :34:00.has again. It is speculated on the future. It looks like we will get a
:34:01. > :34:05.growth forecast for this year not very different from where it was a
:34:06. > :34:08.year ago. What the bank did was upgrade its forecast for the next
:34:09. > :34:13.year or so, but not change very much. It was thinking about three or
:34:14. > :34:18.four years' time, which is what really matters. It looked like the
:34:19. > :34:23.OBR made a mistake in downgrading the growth in the Autumn Statement
:34:24. > :34:27.three months ago. It was more optimistic than nearly all the other
:34:28. > :34:35.forecasters and the Bank of England. It was wrong, but not as wrong as
:34:36. > :34:38.everybody else. We don't know, but if it significantly upgraded its
:34:39. > :34:45.growth forecast for the next three or four years, I would be surprised.
:34:46. > :34:48.It also added 12 billion to the deficit for the current financial
:34:49. > :34:54.year in the Autumn Statement, compared with March. It looks like
:34:55. > :34:59.that deficit will probably be cut again by about 12 billion compared
:35:00. > :35:03.to the last OBR forecast. It is quite difficult to make economic
:35:04. > :35:08.policy on the basis of changes of that skill every couple of months.
:35:09. > :35:13.That is one of the problems about having these two economic event so
:35:14. > :35:16.close together. My guess is the number will come out somewhere
:35:17. > :35:21.between the budget and the Autumn Statement numbers. There was a nice
:35:22. > :35:26.surprise for the Chancellor last month which looked like tax revenues
:35:27. > :35:29.were coming in a lot more strongly than he expected. But again the real
:35:30. > :35:34.question is how much is this making a difference in the medium run? Is
:35:35. > :35:40.this a one-off thing all good news for the next several years? If
:35:41. > :35:44.growth and revenues are stronger, perhaps not as strong as the good
:35:45. > :35:48.news last month, but if they are stronger than had been forecast in
:35:49. > :35:53.the Autumn Statement, what does that mean for planned spending cuts? It
:35:54. > :35:57.probably does not mean very much. Let's not forget the best possible
:35:58. > :36:01.outcome of this budget will be that for the next couple of years things
:36:02. > :36:06.look no worse than they did a year ago and in four years out they will
:36:07. > :36:10.still look a bit worse, and in addition Philip Hammond did increase
:36:11. > :36:15.his spending plans in November. However good the numbers look in a
:36:16. > :36:21.couple of days' time, we will still be borrowing at least 20 billion
:36:22. > :36:27.more by 2020 than we were forecasting a year ago. Still quite
:36:28. > :36:34.constrained. George Osborne wanted to get us to budget surplus by 2019.
:36:35. > :36:39.That has gone. Philip Hammond is quite happy with a big deficit and
:36:40. > :36:44.is not interested in that. But what he is thinking to a large extent, as
:36:45. > :36:48.you have made clear, there is a lot of uncertainty about the economic
:36:49. > :36:53.reaction over the next three or four years. He says he wants some
:36:54. > :36:58.headroom. If things go wrong, I do not want to announce more spending
:36:59. > :37:01.cuts or more tax rises to keep the deficit down. I want to say things
:37:02. > :37:07.have gone wrong for now and we will borrow. And I have got some money in
:37:08. > :37:12.the kitty. He will not spend a lot of it now. I understand the
:37:13. > :37:18.Chancellor is worried about the erosion of the tax base and it is
:37:19. > :37:23.hard to put VAT up by more than 20%, millions have been taken out of
:37:24. > :37:29.income tax, only 46% of people pay income tax, fuel duty is frozen for
:37:30. > :37:32.ever, corporation tax has been cut, the growth in self-employed has
:37:33. > :37:38.reduced revenues, is that a real concern? These are all worries for
:37:39. > :37:42.him. We have as you said in the introduction to this, got a tax
:37:43. > :37:48.burden which is rising very gradually, but it is rising to its
:37:49. > :37:52.highest level since the mid-19 80s, but is not doing it through
:37:53. > :37:56.straightforward increases to income tax. Lots of bits of pieces of
:37:57. > :38:02.insurance premium tax is here and the apprenticeship levied there, and
:38:03. > :38:07.that is higher personal allowance of income tax and a freeze fuel duty,
:38:08. > :38:11.but at some point we will have to look at the tax system as a whole
:38:12. > :38:18.and ask if we can carry on like this. We will have to start increase
:38:19. > :38:25.fuel duties again, or look to those big but unpopular taxes to really
:38:26. > :38:31.keep that money coming in to keep the challenges we will have over the
:38:32. > :38:36.next 30 years. He is going to set up a commission on social care. He has
:38:37. > :38:38.had quite a few commissions on social care. Thank you for being
:38:39. > :38:40.with us. It's just gone 11.35,
:38:41. > :38:42.you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers
:38:43. > :38:45.in Scotland who leave us now Coming up here in twenty
:38:46. > :38:53.minutes, the Week Ahead. Will this English site of civil war
:38:54. > :39:03.steer Labour into calmer waters? The fight for Lancashire -
:39:04. > :39:06.can Jeremy Corbyn fend off his critics and the Conservatives in one
:39:07. > :39:11.on his next big battle grounds? And it's a good old fashioned
:39:12. > :39:13.scrap between red and Angela Eagle is the Labour
:39:14. > :39:17.MP for Wallasey. And David Nuttall is
:39:18. > :39:21.the Conservative for Bury North. David, the House of Lords
:39:22. > :39:23.stuck its collective neck on the line this
:39:24. > :39:25.week, didn't it? Throwing the Brexit bill
:39:26. > :39:28.back to the Commons. Yeah, not entirely
:39:29. > :39:29.unexpected, I think. Certainly everybody who was watching
:39:30. > :39:33.the proceedings thought that it was highly likely that
:39:34. > :39:36.in the House of Lords, where the Conservatives do not have a
:39:37. > :39:38.majority, the other parties can very easily outvote the Conservative
:39:39. > :39:45.peers at any time they like. I rather expect, and
:39:46. > :39:48.indeed hope, that the Bill will be sent back to the House
:39:49. > :39:52.of Lords in its original form, deleting the amendment that has been
:39:53. > :39:57.made by the House of Lords. Angela, Jeremy Corbyn
:39:58. > :39:59.has described it as Is it the right thing to do,
:40:00. > :40:03.to push this amendment through, considering that we did vote
:40:04. > :40:07.to leave the European Union? Well, it doesn't
:40:08. > :40:09.effect is leaving the European Union, what it would do
:40:10. > :40:12.is guaranteed the rights of residents for those EU citizens
:40:13. > :40:14.that were in our country, contributing
:40:15. > :40:24.to our economic success. It would just guarantee
:40:25. > :40:26.those rights. It would put it on the
:40:27. > :40:29.face of a piece of I think that would be
:40:30. > :40:32.a massively important goodwill gesture, which would just take some
:40:33. > :40:35.of the nasty taste in the mouth that has happened since the Birmingham
:40:36. > :40:44.speech that the Prime Minister made at the Tory party conference where
:40:45. > :40:46.the Home Secretary started talking about foreign workers
:40:47. > :40:48.and things like that. I would like to see the Government
:40:49. > :40:50.thinking about this and actually accepting this amendment
:40:51. > :40:53.and I hope there will be another amendment next week,
:40:54. > :40:54.which will actually Commons a meaningful vote at the end
:40:55. > :40:58.of the negotiations. But wouldn't that just slow
:40:59. > :41:00.it down again, Angela, when there has been
:41:01. > :41:02.a vote to get out? It's not that we have
:41:03. > :41:06.to slow it down. If the Government accepted
:41:07. > :41:08.the amendment, all they would be doing would be
:41:09. > :41:10.guaranteeing the rights of those who already
:41:11. > :41:11.are living and working and contributing
:41:12. > :41:13.into our community... Well, I think are getting
:41:14. > :41:17.ahead of ourselves. We are getting into
:41:18. > :41:19.issues that were raised The only reason why
:41:20. > :41:32.we are having this bill is because the Supreme Court ruled that
:41:33. > :41:35.had to be a short bill authorising the triggering of the two-year
:41:36. > :41:38.notice, what is referred to as the David, it's about Parliamentary
:41:39. > :41:43.scrutiny of how the Government are taking forward
:41:44. > :41:45.the decision that the British people Well, there will be
:41:46. > :41:49.plenty of time now. There will be plenty of time
:41:50. > :41:52.for that as we deal with the great repeal Bill after the
:41:53. > :41:54.great Queen's speech. But in any case, the Prime Minister
:41:55. > :41:56.has made it clear, the Prime Minister has made it
:41:57. > :41:59.absolutely clear that in terms of rates of residents for EU citizens,
:42:00. > :42:03.that will be right up there as one The first things that she deals
:42:04. > :42:06.with as part of the I have talked to a lot of people
:42:07. > :42:10.in that position and they are really now questioning our
:42:11. > :42:13.commitment to them and their commitment to our country
:42:14. > :42:16.and the beginning to make plans to move
:42:17. > :42:18.go elsewhere, and I just think that the terrible indictment
:42:19. > :42:22.The vast majority have been here for over five years
:42:23. > :42:24.anyway, so they've got no reason to worry whatsoever.
:42:25. > :42:28.If the EU had accepted what was tabled by our Prime
:42:29. > :42:30.Minister when she said, "Look, we will allow
:42:31. > :42:33."all the EU citizens to stay, if you will do the same
:42:34. > :42:39.We'll have to leave it there. We will have to leave it there.
:42:40. > :42:43.Now, the wheels on Britain's buses went round and round 12% less
:42:44. > :42:45.last year as routes were ditched and timetables
:42:46. > :42:47.were cut, but with the
:42:48. > :42:50.people going up and down in Greater Manchester
:42:51. > :42:52.and in the Liverpool city region on the buses, well, help is
:42:53. > :42:58.That's because Metro Mayors are going to get local power
:42:59. > :43:01.over transport once they are elected in May, but is everyone on board?
:43:02. > :43:06.At Buckthorne Community Centre in Chorlton, they
:43:07. > :43:08.are cooking up a campaign to get the number 84 reinstated.
:43:09. > :43:11.The bus company cut the route last month,
:43:12. > :43:15.replacing it with one which doesn't run as often, as late,
:43:16. > :43:23.At the moment, we have to get three buses to get
:43:24. > :43:29.20 minutes or half an hour each day makes it two hours before
:43:30. > :43:33.It's hoped communities like this one could be helped by the Government's
:43:34. > :43:37.Currently, most 90 separate companies run buses
:43:38. > :43:48.So, for example, if you wanted to get from
:43:49. > :43:50.home in Earlam to work at Trafford Park,
:43:51. > :43:53.first Manchester bus to the Trafford Centre,
:43:54. > :43:56.then change to a Stagecoach service to finish the journey.
:43:57. > :44:03.A longer journey and two different tickets.
:44:04. > :44:05.However, if the bus services Bill goes through as well a single
:44:06. > :44:08.ticketing, some routes that are not profitable but are socially valuable
:44:09. > :44:11.We can't make it fully integrated without these
:44:12. > :44:15.powers over the network as a whole, so in terms of fares, we'd have a
:44:16. > :44:17.universal fare structure across Greater Manchester.
:44:18. > :44:23.But one MPs says buses and trams in his town work
:44:24. > :44:26.Does this not make the point for the extension of
:44:27. > :44:27.the potential to extend municipal bus companies,
:44:28. > :44:30.Passengers in Greater Manchester were more positive,
:44:31. > :44:34.Why can't they cover every area with just one ticket?
:44:35. > :44:36.I think it's ridiculous that every different
:44:37. > :44:39.If I could catch a bus and then connects
:44:40. > :44:43.with the trams, it would make my journey a lot easier and a lot
:44:44. > :44:48.Every single bus takes you to the same place, but there are
:44:49. > :44:50.different tickets that you have to buy.
:44:51. > :44:53.Back in Chorlton, it's given me community hope.
:44:54. > :44:57.I think it would help people an immensely.
:44:58. > :45:00.It just makes so much economic sense to have a
:45:01. > :45:04.system that as not-for-profit, but is about people being able
:45:05. > :45:15.to get to places of work, education and
:45:16. > :45:18.hopefully if the bus service Bill goes through Parliament,
:45:19. > :45:21.to do that more effectively, because they would be able to run
:45:22. > :45:25.If the bill is passed, passengers here are hoping
:45:26. > :45:27.it will be the end the line for their replacement bus.
:45:28. > :45:30.David, the end of the free market on the buses.
:45:31. > :45:32.It feels like renationalisation in all but name.
:45:33. > :45:35.Well, I'm going to declare that as far as the bus services Bill is
:45:36. > :45:37.concerned, I will be chairing the committee
:45:38. > :45:38.stage of the bill in the
:45:39. > :45:41.This particular bill cited in the House of Lords.
:45:42. > :45:44.It has been through all its stages there and it has now passed
:45:45. > :45:51.This week, it was passed its second reading without a division.
:45:52. > :45:55.If there had have been a division, because I am chairing the
:45:56. > :45:58.committee stage, I wouldn't have been able to take part and there is
:45:59. > :46:00.a Labour MP who will also be chairing the Bill.
:46:01. > :46:04.So, we cancel each other out when it comes to the
:46:05. > :46:11.There on Wednesday for the debate over the second reading and
:46:12. > :46:15.as you say, there was cross-party agreement
:46:16. > :46:20.discussion about whether it deregulation had failed communities
:46:21. > :46:31.Well, I think if one looks at the wider
:46:32. > :46:33.issue as to the structures of public or private provision generally,
:46:34. > :46:36.leaving aside the issue of the bus services Bill, my experience has
:46:37. > :46:39.been that the public are more concerned with whether a structure
:46:40. > :46:44.is actually delivering the service that they want to see.
:46:45. > :46:52.This is the same, whether it's in the NHS or
:46:53. > :47:02.I mean, I think that the bus services
:47:03. > :47:05.Bill is a good, tiny step in the right direction, that this power
:47:06. > :47:09.But actually, I'd like to see the capacity for all local
:47:10. > :47:11.authorities to start dealing with the bad
:47:12. > :47:13.effects of deregulation of buses, which happened everywhere in the
:47:14. > :47:16.country outside of London in the 1980s and has fragmented
:47:17. > :47:20.We have seen all of the kind of confusion that your piece
:47:21. > :47:30.Fewer bus mile are driven and social routes not
:47:31. > :47:33.Bus companies being able to farm the subsidies, so they
:47:34. > :47:35.make the maximum money, but our communities
:47:36. > :47:37.still get the resources and the services they need.
:47:38. > :47:39.So, I think I would do the bus services Bill,
:47:40. > :47:42.but I would do it for everybody, not just Metro Mayers.
:47:43. > :47:45.And we will see how it goes in Liverpool city region
:47:46. > :47:47.and in Greater Manchester starting in May after the
:47:48. > :47:51.Now, next, it may not be all out war, but the Shadow
:47:52. > :47:52.Chancellor this week said that the Labour leadership
:47:53. > :47:56.After losing the recent by-election battle in
:47:57. > :47:58.Cumbria, one of Jeremy Corbyn's next challenges will come in Lancashire.
:47:59. > :48:01.Labour wrested control of the county council from the Conservatives four
:48:02. > :48:03.years ago, but can he cling on in May?
:48:04. > :48:06.The Conservative Party candidate, 13700
:48:07. > :48:21.CHEERING Labourer putts lost the fight to the
:48:22. > :48:24.CHEERING Labourer putts lost the fight to the
:48:25. > :48:28.north of us, but survived a skirmish to the south.
:48:29. > :48:31.Here is the next big battle ground test from Labour and
:48:32. > :48:39.its leader, keeping control of Lancashire County Council.
:48:40. > :48:41.On behalf of the people of Chorley, first of all,
:48:42. > :48:46.Later won here four years ago when Ed Miliband was a regular
:48:47. > :48:47.on the campaign trail, but will Jeremy
:48:48. > :48:51.I think Jeremy is an asset where ever
:48:52. > :48:57.I think particularly any like Lancaster where people are
:48:58. > :49:00.interested in environmental issues and education issues.
:49:01. > :49:08.I think Jeremy is always very welcome in
:49:09. > :49:14.Do you want him up your walking the streets with you?
:49:15. > :49:17.If he can fit it in his diary, I think it
:49:18. > :49:20.These Lancaster Labour students, two of
:49:21. > :49:21.them student counsellors, were not Corbyn supporters,
:49:22. > :49:24.but say the party is united at a local level.
:49:25. > :49:26.I think at the moment, there is a lot of negativity
:49:27. > :49:28.going round about the Labour Party nationally.
:49:29. > :49:30.But luckily, I think we still have amazing activists.
:49:31. > :49:32.I think it is more about local issues, because
:49:33. > :49:34.people want to know what will directly affect them.
:49:35. > :49:37.I really think we talk up far too much how much the
:49:38. > :49:40.national day-to-day picture affects things at a local level.
:49:41. > :49:42.Local council elections for a lot of people
:49:43. > :49:43.are still about dog poo, bins
:49:44. > :49:47.During the English Civil War, the Royalists and
:49:48. > :49:54.the round heads fought with these fields in the Battle of Preston.
:49:55. > :50:01.Today, this area is a crucial one in the upcoming elections.
:50:02. > :50:04.So, what do voters around here think of Labour's
:50:05. > :50:12.I don't like Jeremy Corbyn and I think he ought to go.
:50:13. > :50:14.I think the whole Government is EXPLETIVE, to be fair.
:50:15. > :50:16.Would you look at the Opposition perhaps?
:50:17. > :50:20.I'd need to think about it and see what happens.
:50:21. > :50:22.What you think about Labour at the moment?
:50:23. > :50:27.CHEERING Labour gained 12 seats from the
:50:28. > :50:30.According to one expert, they could be tough to
:50:31. > :50:33.It will be very difficult, because the matter what
:50:34. > :50:36.people think about opinion polls, by and large, the opinion polls are
:50:37. > :50:38.And the truth is that Labour is extremely
:50:39. > :50:42.And there is not much local administration can do
:50:43. > :50:55.Ian is a postman, a union man and the man in charge of
:50:56. > :50:58.How do you sense union feeling towards the
:50:59. > :51:03.Some unions are sitting on the fence, but by and
:51:04. > :51:05.large, the union world is supporting them.
:51:06. > :51:07.Do you feel that support is still there?
:51:08. > :51:13.From whatever side you're on, in that effort towards defeating the
:51:14. > :51:17.But if the red rosed party is to hold the red
:51:18. > :51:34.its leader can't afford to be a thorn in his own side's chances.
:51:35. > :51:36.Angela, the Lancashire candidate for Lancashire there talked
:51:37. > :51:39.about how Jeremy Corbyn is an asset to the Labour Party were ever he
:51:40. > :51:43.Is that true, is that which you are hearing on the doorsteps?
:51:44. > :51:46.Well, look, what we are doing is campaigning to try to strengthen
:51:47. > :51:47.Labour's position in local government.
:51:48. > :51:49.Up and down the country, Labour councils are actually in
:51:50. > :51:51.power locally and they are doing their best
:51:52. > :51:54.austerity and the cuts they are battling.
:51:55. > :51:56.They are battling to deliver good services and do
:51:57. > :51:58.innovative things, build new council houses...
:51:59. > :52:01.And yet they are at a loss after more than 80 years.
:52:02. > :52:03.Yes, 89 councils of Labour pay the living
:52:04. > :52:07.So, there is a difference when Labour is in power locally and that
:52:08. > :52:10.I'm not going to sit here and pretend
:52:11. > :52:13.that our opinion poll ratings nationally are satisfactory at the
:52:14. > :52:17.We have to improve their position and we've got
:52:18. > :52:19.to go out and campaign for Labour values and
:52:20. > :52:20.for the Labour Party will
:52:21. > :52:23.Do you think Copeland was a protest against
:52:24. > :52:32.I think that Copeland was a result that is a huge
:52:33. > :52:35.problem for the Labour Party, there is no point in saying that it isn't.
:52:36. > :52:38.I think it was a reflection of our position nationally in the polls.
:52:39. > :52:40.We have got to have a good look at that
:52:41. > :52:43.to see how we can move forward and try to get
:52:44. > :52:44.back on the right side of
:52:45. > :52:48.People do vote differently in council elections
:52:49. > :52:50.than they do in constituency elections, don't they, David?
:52:51. > :52:52.Do you think that the Conservatives can pull it back
:52:53. > :52:56.Well, I don't think that we should be under any
:52:57. > :52:57.illusion that this will be straightforward.
:52:58. > :53:07.Later this year, we will pass the halfway point of this
:53:08. > :53:14.Parliament and all governments go through midtown difficulties.
:53:15. > :53:18.I don't think we should think that this will be an easy fight.
:53:19. > :53:21.The situation in Lancashire is that Labour have a majority, but of the
:53:22. > :53:23.84 seats, ten are controlled by other parties.
:53:24. > :53:25.There is not an overall majority, no overall control
:53:26. > :53:44.And so, you know, I think the bookies would probably, at
:53:45. > :53:50.this point in the electoral cycle, have asked as second favourite.
:53:51. > :53:53.But that is not to say that we will be
:53:54. > :53:59.trying to do all we can to wrest control of the council from Labour.
:54:00. > :54:01.Angela, Labour are fighting for council
:54:02. > :54:03.seats and yet lost one in
:54:04. > :54:10.Look, I think we have a tough position in
:54:11. > :54:20.I think the issues on Brexit have caused terrible
:54:21. > :54:22.And Jeremy Corbyn supporters said it's
:54:23. > :54:25.because the rest of the party didn't get behind it, so is everyone to
:54:26. > :54:27.blame for not endorsing the party leader?
:54:28. > :54:29.Well, I don't think that we should...
:54:30. > :54:34.We are a party that has got ideas and we are an umbrella party that
:54:35. > :54:36.has a range of people in it from the left
:54:37. > :54:38.to the right of politics in the
:54:39. > :54:39.social democratic sphere and it's right
:54:40. > :54:41.that we have debates about the
:54:42. > :54:45.Nobody likes to see elections losing two seats but...
:54:46. > :54:47.But is the image of unity not important
:54:48. > :54:52.There is the perception of being united behind your reader.
:54:53. > :54:54.Unity is important in debate and it's important that
:54:55. > :54:56.after the Brexit vote, which will completely change
:54:57. > :54:59.the way that our country has to live and prosper in the world, that we
:55:00. > :55:02.start talking about economic renewal, that we look forward to the
:55:03. > :55:12.problems of the future, that we talk about how we can revive our
:55:13. > :55:14.industrial strategy that is meaningful, protects
:55:15. > :55:16.We are having those debates in the party.
:55:17. > :55:22.David, whoever wins is going to have one heck of a job on
:55:23. > :55:24.their hands looking after social care, with budgets being cut.
:55:25. > :55:27.We know that in Bury, by 2020, Bury Council
:55:28. > :55:28.will have lost 70% of that
:55:29. > :55:33.Do you think the Government are going to start
:55:34. > :55:36.Well, we have got the Budget coming up next week.
:55:37. > :55:38.I have no idea what will be in the Budget,
:55:39. > :55:40.but there may be measures in the Budget.
:55:41. > :55:44.Throughout all my time in politics, I have always...
:55:45. > :55:47.This is new, you've got Conservative councils
:55:48. > :55:50.telling a Conservative Government that they cannot cope any more with
:55:51. > :55:53.Well, under the last Labour Government, we
:55:54. > :55:55.had Labour-controlled councils telling the Labour Government that
:55:56. > :55:58.they didn't have any money and Bury Council was one of them.
:55:59. > :56:00.Bury Council regularly used to go down to
:56:01. > :56:01.London to complain that they didn't have
:56:02. > :56:02.enough money, so there is
:56:03. > :56:19.My own local authority, Wirral, will have lost
:56:20. > :56:22.nearly 50% of its budget by the end of this Parliament.
:56:23. > :56:24.Social care, with the 3% council tax premium,
:56:25. > :56:27.that gives us the ?19 million extra, but there are ?40 million of
:56:28. > :56:29.pressure is just because of the number
:56:30. > :56:30.of older people who live in
:56:31. > :56:33.So, actually, some local authorities are
:56:34. > :56:36.in danger of falling over and not being able to deliver their
:56:37. > :56:40.This is something the Government has got to deal with.
:56:41. > :56:43.We will see in the Budget next week whether social care
:56:44. > :56:47.Now, is not just the Labour Party dealing with a bit of
:56:48. > :56:49.internal strife, the rest of this week's news,
:56:50. > :56:54.A school was closed and teachers suspended after they were
:56:55. > :56:56.pictured drinking and chanting following a dispute with the head.
:56:57. > :56:59.This primary in Bowden has appointed an interim headteacher to oversee
:57:00. > :57:11.Passengers faced disruption after the RMT union voted to strike
:57:12. > :57:13.against plans for a driver only trains.
:57:14. > :57:18.Bottom of the class, Liverpool has had the biggest drop
:57:19. > :57:21.in the country of children securing places that their first choice
:57:22. > :57:25.The City Council said population growth is partly to
:57:26. > :57:30.A Cheshire councillor called for Parliament to step in after
:57:31. > :57:34.foxhounds rampaged through a Macclesfield
:57:35. > :57:36.foxhounds rampaged through a Macclesfield estate during a hunt.
:57:37. > :57:38.There was literally hound after hound, 15 to 20 hounds
:57:39. > :57:45.And a rouse kicked off of Liverpool football
:57:46. > :57:51.club's proposed training ground move.
:57:52. > :57:54.The West Derby MP Stephen Twigg doesn't want large-scale housing on
:57:55. > :57:57.Before we go, just time to remember Gerald Kaufman.
:57:58. > :57:59.Now, I never met Gerald, but anyone who
:58:00. > :58:03.loves Singing In The Rain as much as that, I'm sure I would get along
:58:04. > :58:06.Angela, you probably knew him a little bit better than David.
:58:07. > :58:08.What's your outstanding memory of him?
:58:09. > :58:10.Very acute about politics, loved ice cream.
:58:11. > :58:12.He was a great connoisseur of ice cream.
:58:13. > :58:16.And also something that I shared with him very much, we used to talk
:58:17. > :58:22.Do you think we'll have those sorts of politicians going
:58:23. > :58:24.forward, who stay in one area and stick with it?
:58:25. > :58:26.Well, Gerald was in Government, probably before you were
:58:27. > :58:30.And he was in Harold Wilson's kitchen Cabinet, so he was
:58:31. > :58:33.The peak of his career came with the 18 years
:58:34. > :58:36.that Labour was out of power during the Thatcher era.
:58:37. > :58:38.What about you, David, from being on the Opposition
:58:39. > :58:42.Yeah, obviously, I only really got to know him I'm over the last
:58:43. > :58:45.seven years and the last few months obviously
:58:46. > :58:48.seven years and the last few months obviously he has been ill, he
:58:49. > :58:51.He was a great parliamentarian and to
:58:52. > :58:54.represent the same area for 47 years is just such an incredible
:58:55. > :58:58.He will be sadly missed by all as family and his friends and
:58:59. > :59:01.Of course, we had political disagreements, but he always
:59:02. > :59:06.I think that will be no doubt be one of the reasons that he was always
:59:07. > :59:09.elected with huge majority, time after time, because his constituents
:59:10. > :59:12.knew that in Gerald they had someone they could rely on to fight their
:59:13. > :59:30.Angela, he has been described as a socialist, which you
:59:31. > :59:31.don't necessarily hear very regularly used
:59:32. > :59:36.Well, he was in Harold Wilson's kitchen Cabinet.
:59:37. > :59:39.He talked about the modernisation of socialism and in
:59:40. > :59:43.fact, he was regarded as a left winger when he came into the house.
:59:44. > :59:54.He then fell out with Tony Benn and was very a
:59:55. > :59:57.about what was known as the longest suicide note in history.
:59:58. > :00:03.He had a good deal of experience, a great
:00:04. > :00:05.deal of knowledge and obviously, you will be sorely missed.
:00:06. > :00:07.I think I will miss most that little twinkle
:00:08. > :00:11.in his eye when he came into the tea room to nick all the newspapers to
:00:12. > :00:17.Reaction to the Budget from us next week.
:00:18. > :00:20.But before I hand you back to Andrew in London, we leave
:00:21. > :00:23.you with some tributes to and memories of the late Gerald Kaufman.
:00:24. > :00:25.He was an outstanding parliamentarian.
:00:26. > :00:34.I swear by Almighty God that I will be faithful and bear true
:00:35. > :00:37.allegiance to Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth.
:00:38. > :00:42.Gerald could be very acerbic and he used it ruthlessly as
:00:43. > :00:51.I'm going to justify that to my inner city constituents
:00:52. > :00:54.on the basis that running the same competently
:00:55. > :00:55.and doing your job, it
:00:56. > :01:01.He was always there for his constituents.
:01:02. > :01:06.And I said, how has an ice cream parlour suddenly arisen in
:01:07. > :01:09.my constituency without me knowing about it?
:01:10. > :01:16.I went to him on a number of issues and he always helped me.
:01:17. > :01:18.Many of the Labour Party's foreign policy positions
:01:19. > :01:21.positions Sir Gerald Kaufman set as the Shadow Foreign Secretary.
:01:22. > :01:23.It is time to remind you all, that the
:01:24. > :01:26.star of David belongs to all jews and not his repulsive government.
:01:27. > :01:29.I disagreed with him vehemently on that, but I respected
:01:30. > :01:34.the sincerity and integrity of his views.
:01:35. > :01:36.I was talking to members of his family and
:01:37. > :01:39.his great nephews and great nieces and I asked, "How would you
:01:40. > :01:43.And they said, "He was an awesome uncle," and I think we
:01:44. > :01:53.need Crossrail as well. We will be poring over the entrails of the
:01:54. > :01:58.budget next week. Thank you very much indeed.
:01:59. > :02:04.So the Brexit Bill is back in the Lords next week and the Lib Dems
:02:05. > :02:07.They've ordered pizza and camp beds to encourage their peers
:02:08. > :02:10.to keep talking all night, only to be told by the Lord's
:02:11. > :02:17.authorities that their plans fall foul of health and safety laws.
:02:18. > :02:25.Laws that they probably voted for. What did you make of David
:02:26. > :02:29.Liddington's remarks on the Lords amendments, particularly not just
:02:30. > :02:34.the one on EU nationals, but on what is regarded as a meaningful vote at
:02:35. > :02:39.the end of the process? Let's be clear, as ministers like to say, the
:02:40. > :02:44.meaningful vote vote is by far the biggest thing that will happen in
:02:45. > :02:50.Parliament. It puts EU citizens into a tiny corner. It will decide not
:02:51. > :02:55.just who is going to have the final say on this, but who the EU is
:02:56. > :03:00.negotiating with. Is it directly with Theresa May or is it with
:03:01. > :03:05.Parliament? Who will decide the shape of Brexit, Parliament or
:03:06. > :03:12.Theresa May? The Lords amendment is just the first chapter. They have
:03:13. > :03:15.voiced Theresa May to give them a veto on everything she does, and
:03:16. > :03:22.there is a possible chance in the Commons could uphold this amendment.
:03:23. > :03:28.The meaningful vote amendment? The meaningful vote amendment. But is it
:03:29. > :03:35.a meaningful vote if the choice is to either back the deal or crash out
:03:36. > :03:39.of the deal? That is what the remain supporting MPs or hardline people
:03:40. > :03:43.who want to remain fear. What they want is the power to be able to send
:03:44. > :03:50.Theresa May back to the negotiating table. Why is that anathema to many
:03:51. > :03:54.Brexit supporters? They believed it would crucially and critically
:03:55. > :03:59.undermine Theresa May's negotiating hand and also create a long period
:04:00. > :04:03.of uncertainty for business. There is already great uncertainty and
:04:04. > :04:08.this could extend it. The government's position is in there
:04:09. > :04:13.was a proper, meaningful vote which Parliament could reject what was on
:04:14. > :04:19.offer, that would be an incentive to the EU to give us a bad deal? I
:04:20. > :04:22.think that is the fear. If you are saying to the people you are
:04:23. > :04:27.negotiating with that that is another authority and Theresa May
:04:28. > :04:30.will have to go back and have all of this approved, I think it would have
:04:31. > :04:38.a very significant undermining effect on her negotiating hand.
:04:39. > :04:43.Things change from day to day. We are talking about 2019 and 2018 at
:04:44. > :04:51.the earliest, but if the government lost a vote on the Brexit deal,
:04:52. > :04:56.would he not have to call in someone else? That is why the vote will be
:04:57. > :05:01.meaningful even if the amendment on this meaningful vote will be lost.
:05:02. > :05:07.You cannot do a deal on something as historic as Brexit and have
:05:08. > :05:12.Parliament against you. So, whatever form this vote takes, whenever it
:05:13. > :05:21.happens, it will be hugely meaningful. Whatever label that is
:05:22. > :05:27.given and if she lost it she would call a general election. She could
:05:28. > :05:31.not impose it. To call a general election now you need a majority of
:05:32. > :05:37.MPs which she will not have, so maybe she will not get her election
:05:38. > :05:40.after all. It would be very unlike Labour not to vote for an election.
:05:41. > :05:43.It would be very unlike Labour not to vote for an election.
:05:44. > :05:46.The elections to Stormont have given a boost to the republicans and put
:05:47. > :05:49.the long term status of Northern Ireland in some doubt.
:05:50. > :05:51.Sinn Fein's leader Gerry Adams spoke to reporters
:05:52. > :05:56.Yesterday was in many, many ways a watershed election,
:05:57. > :06:00.and we have just started a process of reflecting what it all means,
:06:01. > :06:16.but clearly the union's majority in the Assembly has been ended,
:06:17. > :06:18.and the notion of a permanent or a perpetual unionist majority
:06:19. > :06:31.Is he right? Is this a watershed? The nationalist vote in the assembly
:06:32. > :06:37.will now come to 39 and the Unionists 38. It is only one member,
:06:38. > :06:41.but it is significant. This is a very serious moment and because of
:06:42. > :06:44.everything else going on with Donald Trump and Brexit it is taking a
:06:45. > :06:50.while for people here to realise just how significant this is.
:06:51. > :06:53.Talking to someone who only recently left a significant role in Northern
:06:54. > :06:58.Ireland politics last night, they said they were very worried about
:06:59. > :07:02.what this means. It is likely there will be a call for some kind of
:07:03. > :07:07.international figure to chair the talks to try and see if there is a
:07:08. > :07:10.way of everybody working together. All sides will probably try to
:07:11. > :07:15.extract more money from the Treasury, but it is a very dangerous
:07:16. > :07:20.moment. Should we regard Michelle O'Neill, who has replaced Mr
:07:21. > :07:29.McGuinness as the leader, it is she the First Minister death probably
:07:30. > :07:35.not quite. An interesting thought. Indeed, the daughter of an IRA man,
:07:36. > :07:40.a fascinating concept in itself. But there are are still a large amount
:07:41. > :07:44.of MLAs who will not give Sinn Fein what they need. But what effect does
:07:45. > :07:47.this have on the legacy of the prosecutions and the great
:07:48. > :07:53.witchhunts which the British Government has vowed to end. There
:07:54. > :07:59.is a majority left on the Stormont assembly to end those. But some
:08:00. > :08:05.would keep them going for time continuing, which is a headache for
:08:06. > :08:11.Theresa May. You have now got 27 Sinn Fein members, 28 DUP, then the
:08:12. > :08:17.SDLP bumps up the numbers a little bit. You have got the British
:08:18. > :08:20.Government transfixed with Brexit which has huge implications for the
:08:21. > :08:28.border between North and South in Ireland, and the Irish government is
:08:29. > :08:31.pretty wavering as well and if there is an election there, Sinn Fein
:08:32. > :08:36.could do well in the Dublin parliament as well. There are a lot
:08:37. > :08:40.of moving pieces. There are and there is a danger that we look at
:08:41. > :08:45.everything through the prism of Brexit, but I found Friday and this
:08:46. > :08:49.weekend fascinating. Theresa May and Scotland were Nicola Sturgeon is
:08:50. > :08:53.framing Brexit entirely through an argument to have a second referendum
:08:54. > :08:58.on independence which she wants to hold it she possibly can. And the
:08:59. > :09:07.Irish situation with the prospect of a hard border with Northern Ireland
:09:08. > :09:16.voting majority to remain, quite a substantial majority, again a few of
:09:17. > :09:17.the instability at the moment. That is on both sides. We will be keeping
:09:18. > :09:22.We will be keeping an eye on it for sure.
:09:23. > :09:23.Yesterday, US President Donald Trump tweeted allegations
:09:24. > :09:26.that his predecessor, Barack Obama, had ordered
:09:27. > :09:28.his phones to be tapped during the election campaign.
:09:29. > :09:31."Terrible!", Trump wrote, "Just found out that Obama
:09:32. > :09:35.had my "wires tapped" in Trump Tower just before the victory.
:09:36. > :09:48.I'm not quite sure what McCarthyism that is.
:09:49. > :09:51.He followed up with a series of tweets comparing it to Watergate.
:09:52. > :09:57."How low has President Obama gone to tap my phones during the very
:09:58. > :10:11.The sacred election process, I think at one stage he said it was a dodgy
:10:12. > :10:12.election process, but now it is sacred.
:10:13. > :10:25.You are frightened to go to bed at night, you do not know what you are
:10:26. > :10:29.going to wake up to. Completely uncharted territory here. Little
:10:30. > :10:32.more than a month ago at the inauguration they were making the
:10:33. > :10:40.veneer of small talk and politely shaking hands. He saw Barack Obama
:10:41. > :10:47.and Michelle off on the helicopter. You do not know what is coming next.
:10:48. > :10:52.Is there a scintilla of evidence to back up Donald Trump's claims? Yes,
:10:53. > :10:56.there is, although he is very muddled about it all. I will
:10:57. > :11:09.explain. Remember what happened to Mike Flynn, talking to the Russian
:11:10. > :11:13.and Ambassador will stop they were listening. Barack Obama does not
:11:14. > :11:17.sign of warrants, but somebody else did. So why on earth would you not
:11:18. > :11:26.want to listen to the president elect himself in case he might also
:11:27. > :11:29.be breaking the law. Does that sound to you like convincing evidence or
:11:30. > :11:34.just a supposition? I think Tom should go and work for him, that is
:11:35. > :11:40.the most credible interpretation I have heard for a long time. Start
:11:41. > :11:45.tweeting the case for the tweet. What is interesting about this is my
:11:46. > :11:49.theory is he does not really like the idea of being a president. That
:11:50. > :11:55.wild press conference he gave a couple of weeks ago there was one ad
:11:56. > :12:01.lib that did not get repeated which was, I suppose I am a politician
:12:02. > :12:05.now, as if he was humiliated at the idea of being a president. He likes
:12:06. > :12:10.being the businessman with a swagger tweeting around the clock. And
:12:11. > :12:15.campaigning again. He keeps going to what looked like campaign rallies. I
:12:16. > :12:19.disagree with you about him not liking being president. I think he
:12:20. > :12:23.loves the idea of being the president, but the reality is so
:12:24. > :12:27.frustrating on every level, finding he does not have unlimited room for
:12:28. > :12:31.manoeuvre and so many things have been put in place to stop them doing
:12:32. > :12:34.things he would do in the business environment. We have had two more
:12:35. > :12:40.tweets from him this morning, I guess when he woke up. Who was it
:12:41. > :12:43.who secretly said to the Russian president, tell Vladimir that after
:12:44. > :12:51.the election I will have more flexibility? Who was that? Possibly
:12:52. > :12:56.Hillary Clinton. Is it true the Democratic National committee would
:12:57. > :13:00.not allow the FBI access to check server or other equipment after
:13:01. > :13:04.learning it was hacked? Can that be possible? This was all an issue in
:13:05. > :13:09.the campaign. He is now a president. Shall I point out the flaw in Tom's
:13:10. > :13:13.theory. They were not bugging Michael Flynn's phone, it was the
:13:14. > :13:23.Russian Ambassador's telephone they were barking. Mr Neil, I would never
:13:24. > :13:27.contradict you on this programme. But if you suspect there was
:13:28. > :13:33.criminal activity going on, as there was by Michael Flynn, why would you
:13:34. > :13:38.not want to put on a tap? I don't know. That is it for today.
:13:39. > :13:42.I'll be back next week here on BBC One at 11am as usual.
:13:43. > :13:44.The Daily Politics is back tomorrow at midday on BBC Two.
:13:45. > :14:34.But remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.
:14:35. > :14:37.The thing that's so clear is that it's 100% honest.
:14:38. > :14:41.We're right in the middle of the action.
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