12/03/2017

:00:34. > :00:38.It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:39. > :00:43.David Davis tells MPs to leave the Brexit bill untouched,

:00:44. > :00:45.ahead of a week which could see Britain begin the process

:00:46. > :00:50.We'll talk to a Tory rebel and Ukip's Nigel Farage.

:00:51. > :00:53.Phillip Hammond's first budget hit the rocks thanks to a tax rise

:00:54. > :01:01.But how should we tax those who work for themselves?

:01:02. > :01:03.And remember Donald Trump's claim that Barack Obama had ordered

:01:04. > :01:12.We'll talk to the former Tory MP who set the whole story rolling.

:01:13. > :01:13.And in the North West, local budget reaction.

:01:14. > :01:15.Has the Chancellor got businesses over a barrel?

:01:16. > :01:29.Why there could be trouble brewing for Philip Hammond.

:01:30. > :01:31.And joining me for all of that, three self-employed journalists

:01:32. > :01:35.who definitely don't deserve a tax break.

:01:36. > :01:36.It's Steve Richards, Julia Hartley-Brewer

:01:37. > :01:40.They'll be tweeting throughout the programme with all the carefree

:01:41. > :01:48.abandon of Katie Hopkins before a libel trial.

:01:49. > :01:51.BBC lawyers have suddenly got nervous!

:01:52. > :01:54.So first today, the government is gearing up to trigger Article 50,

:01:55. > :01:56.perhaps in the next 48 hours, and start negotiating Britain's

:01:57. > :01:59.Much has been written about the prospect of the Commons

:02:00. > :02:02.getting a "meaningful vote" on the deal Britain negotiates.

:02:03. > :02:04.Brexit Secretary David Davis was on the Andrew Marr programme

:02:05. > :02:06.earlier this morning and he was asked what happens

:02:07. > :02:17.Well, that is what is called the most favoured nation status deal

:02:18. > :02:21.There we go out, as it were, on WTO rules.

:02:22. > :02:25.That is why of course we do the contingency planning, to make

:02:26. > :02:32.The British people decided on June the 23rd last year

:02:33. > :02:37.My job, and the job of the government, is to make

:02:38. > :02:47.the terms on which that happens as beneficial as possible.

:02:48. > :02:55.There we have it, clearly, either Parliament votes for the deal when

:02:56. > :02:58.it is done or it out on World Trade Organisation rules. That's what the

:02:59. > :03:00.government means by a meaningful vote.

:03:01. > :03:07.I think we get over obsessed about whether there will be a legal right

:03:08. > :03:11.for Parliament to have a vote. If there is no deal or a bad deal, I

:03:12. > :03:14.think it would be politically impossible for the government to

:03:15. > :03:17.reject Parliament's desire for a vote because the atmosphere of

:03:18. > :03:20.politics will be completely different by then. I take David

:03:21. > :03:25.Davies seriously. Within Whitehall he has acquired a reputation as

:03:26. > :03:29.being the most conscientious and details sadly... And well briefed.

:03:30. > :03:32.Absolutely and well travelled in terms of European capitals of the

:03:33. > :03:36.three Brexit ministers. It is quite telling he said what he did and it

:03:37. > :03:40.is quite telling that within cabinet, two weeks ago he was

:03:41. > :03:44.floating the idea of no deal at all. Being if not the central estimate

:03:45. > :03:48.than a completely plausible eventuality. It is interesting. I

:03:49. > :03:53.would suggest the prospect of no deal is moving up the agenda. It is

:03:54. > :03:59.still less likely than more likely to happen. But it's no longer a kind

:04:00. > :04:02.of long tail way out there in the distance. Planning for no deal is

:04:03. > :04:04.the same as having contents insurance or travel insurance, plan

:04:05. > :04:09.for the worse case scenarios are prepared it happens. Even the worst

:04:10. > :04:13.case scenario, it's not that bad. Think of the Jeep 20, apart from the

:04:14. > :04:18.EU, four members of the G20 economies are successful members of

:04:19. > :04:21.the EU. The rest aren't and don't have trade deals but somehow these

:04:22. > :04:26.countries are prospering. They are growing at a higher rate. You are

:04:27. > :04:30.not frightened? Not remotely. We are obsessed with what we get from the

:04:31. > :04:33.EU and the key thing we get from leaving the EU is not the deal but

:04:34. > :04:37.the other deals we can finally make with other trading partners. They

:04:38. > :04:40.have higher growth than virtually every other EU country apart from

:04:41. > :04:45.Germany. It is sensible as a negotiating position for the

:04:46. > :04:48.government to say if there is no deal, we will accept there is no

:04:49. > :04:53.deal. We're not frightened of no deal. It was clear from what David

:04:54. > :04:55.Davies was saying that there will be a vote in parliament at the end of

:04:56. > :05:01.the process but there won't be a third option to send the government

:05:02. > :05:06.back to try to get a better deal. It is either the deal or we leave

:05:07. > :05:09.without a deal. In reality, that third option will be there. We don't

:05:10. > :05:14.know yet whether there will be a majority for the deal if they get

:05:15. > :05:20.one. What we do know now is that there isn't a majority in the

:05:21. > :05:24.Commons for no deal. Labour MPs are absolutely clear that no deal is

:05:25. > :05:28.worth then a bad deal. I've heard enough Tory MPs say the same thing.

:05:29. > :05:37.But they wouldn't get no deal through. When it comes to this vote,

:05:38. > :05:40.if whatever deal is rejected, there will then be, one way or another,

:05:41. > :05:44.the third option raised of go back again. But who gets to decide what

:05:45. > :05:48.is a bad deal? The British people will have a different idea than the

:05:49. > :05:55.two thirds of the Remain supporting MPs in the Commons. In terms of the

:05:56. > :05:59.vote, the Commons. Surely, if the Commons, which is what matters here,

:06:00. > :06:05.if the Commons were to vote against the deal as negotiated by the

:06:06. > :06:09.government, surely that would trigger a general election? If the

:06:10. > :06:12.government had recommended the deal, surely the government would then, if

:06:13. > :06:18.it still felt strongly about the deal, if the other 27 had said,

:06:19. > :06:22.we're not negotiating, extending it, it would in effect become a second

:06:23. > :06:25.referendum on the deal. In effect it would be a no-confidence vote in the

:06:26. > :06:29.government. You've got to assume that unless something massively

:06:30. > :06:32.changes in the opposition before then, the government would feel

:06:33. > :06:37.fairly confident about a general election on those terms. Unless the

:06:38. > :06:41.deal is hideously bad and obviously basso every vote in the country...

:06:42. > :06:45.The prior minister said if it is that bad she would have rather no

:06:46. > :06:50.deal. So that eventuality arrives. -- the Prime Minister has said. Not

:06:51. > :06:55.a second referendum general election in two years' time. Don't put any

:06:56. > :06:58.holidays for! LAUGHTER -- don't look any.

:06:59. > :07:00.So the Brexit bill looks likely to clear Parliament this week.

:07:01. > :07:04.That depends on the number of Conservative MPs who are prepared

:07:05. > :07:06.to vote against their government on two key issues.

:07:07. > :07:10.Theresa May could be in negotiations with our European

:07:11. > :07:12.partners within days, but there may be some

:07:13. > :07:14.wheeler-dealings she has to do with her own MPs, too.

:07:15. > :07:19.Cast your mind back to the beginning of month.

:07:20. > :07:20.The bill to trigger Article 50 passed comfortably

:07:21. > :07:29.But three Conservatives voted for Labour's amendments to ensure

:07:30. > :07:33.the rights of EU citizens already in the UK.

:07:34. > :07:36.Seven Tory MPs voted to force the government to give Parliament

:07:37. > :07:41.a say on the deal struck with the EU before it's finalised.

:07:42. > :07:45.But remember those numbers, they're important.

:07:46. > :07:49.On the issue of a meaningful vote on a deal, I'm told there might have

:07:50. > :07:51.been more rebels had it not been for this assurance from

:07:52. > :07:57.I can confirm that the government will bring forward a motion

:07:58. > :07:59.on the final agreement to be approved by both Houses

:08:00. > :08:04.And we expect, and intend, that this will happen before

:08:05. > :08:11.the European Parliament debates and votes on the final agreement.

:08:12. > :08:16.When the government was criticised for reeling back

:08:17. > :08:20.from when and what it would offer a vote on.

:08:21. > :08:22.The bill then moved into the Lords, where peers passed it

:08:23. > :08:30.And the second, that Parliament be given a meaningful vote on the terms

:08:31. > :08:33.of the deal or indeed a vote in the event of there

:08:34. > :08:37.The so-called Brexit bill will return to Commons

:08:38. > :08:41.Ministers insist that both amendments would weaken

:08:42. > :08:44.the government's negotiating hand and are seeking to overturn them.

:08:45. > :08:50.But, as ever, politics is a numbers game.

:08:51. > :08:51.Theresa May has a working majority of 17.

:08:52. > :08:56.On Brexit, though, it's probably higher.

:08:57. > :08:58.At least six Labour MPs generally vote with

:08:59. > :09:02.Plus, eight DUP MPs, two from the Ulster Unionist party

:09:03. > :09:08.If all Conservatives vote with the government as well,

:09:09. > :09:14.Therefore, 26 Conservative rebels are needed for the government to be

:09:15. > :09:21.So, are there rough waters ahead for Theresa May?

:09:22. > :09:24.What numbers are we looking at, in terms of a potential rebellion?

:09:25. > :09:27.I think we're looking at a large number of people who are interested

:09:28. > :09:29.This building is a really important building.

:09:30. > :09:31.It's symbolic of a huge amount of history.

:09:32. > :09:35.And for it not to be involved in this momentous time would,

:09:36. > :09:42.But he says a clear verbal statement from the government on a meaningful

:09:43. > :09:48.vote on any deal would be enough to get most Tory MPs onside.

:09:49. > :09:50.It was already said about David Jones.

:09:51. > :09:52.It's slightly unravelled a little bit during

:09:53. > :09:57.I think this is an opportunity to really get that clarity

:09:58. > :10:00.through so that we can all vote for Article 50 and get

:10:01. > :10:05.We've have spoken to several Tory MPs who say they are minded to vote

:10:06. > :10:08.One said the situation was sad and depressing.

:10:09. > :10:11.The other said that the whips must be worried because they don't

:10:12. > :10:18.A minister told me Downing Street was looking again at the possibility

:10:19. > :10:22.of offering a vote in the event of no deal being reached.

:10:23. > :10:24.But that its position was unlikely to change.

:10:25. > :10:27.And, anyway, government sources have told the Sunday Politics they're not

:10:28. > :10:34.That those Tory MPs who didn't back either amendment the first time

:10:35. > :10:37.round would look silly if they did, this time.

:10:38. > :10:41.It would have to be a pretty hefty lot of people changing their minds

:10:42. > :10:44.about things that have already been discussed in quite a lot of detail,

:10:45. > :10:48.last time it was in the Commons, for things to be reversed this time.

:10:49. > :10:51.There's no doubt that a number of Tory MPs are very concerned.

:10:52. > :10:53.Labour are pessimistic about the chances of enough Tory

:10:54. > :10:57.rebels backing either of the amendments in the Commons.

:10:58. > :10:59.The important thing, I think, is to focus on the fact

:11:00. > :11:02.that this is the last chance to have a say on this.

:11:03. > :11:06.If they're going to vote with us, Monday is the time to do it.

:11:07. > :11:08.Assuming the bill does pass the Commons unamended,

:11:09. > :11:11.it will go back to the Lord's on Monday night where Labour peers

:11:12. > :11:15.have already indicated they won't block it again.

:11:16. > :11:18.It means that the Brexit bill would become law and Theresa May

:11:19. > :11:22.would be free to trigger Article 50 within days.

:11:23. > :11:24.Her own deadline was the end of this month.

:11:25. > :11:30.But one minister told me there were advantages to doing it early.

:11:31. > :11:33.We're joined now from Nottingham by the Conservative MP Anna Soubry.

:11:34. > :11:35.She's previously voted against the government on the question

:11:36. > :11:42.of whether Parliament should have a final say over the EU deal.

:11:43. > :11:48.Anna Soubry, I think it was clear this morning from David Davies that

:11:49. > :11:51.what he means by meaningful vote is not what you mean by a meaningful

:11:52. > :11:56.vote. He thinks the choice for Parliament would be to either vote

:11:57. > :12:00.for the deal and if Parliament doesn't, we leave on World Trade

:12:01. > :12:06.Organisation rules, on a bare-bones structure. In the end, will he

:12:07. > :12:10.accept that in the Commons tomorrow? No, because my problem and I don't

:12:11. > :12:14.think it is a problem, but my problem, the government's problem is

:12:15. > :12:18.that what I want is then to answer this question. What happens in the

:12:19. > :12:23.event of their not being any deal? David Davies made it very clear that

:12:24. > :12:27.in the event of there being no deal, Parliament would have no say. It

:12:28. > :12:31.means through your elected representatives, the people of this

:12:32. > :12:36.country would have no say on what happens if the government doesn't

:12:37. > :12:38.get a deal. I think the request that Parliament should have a say on

:12:39. > :12:43.Parliamentary sovereignty, is perfectly reasonable. That is what I

:12:44. > :12:50.want David to say. If he says that, I won't be rebelling. If he does...

:12:51. > :12:54.They have refused to say that. Sorry. If he continues to say what

:12:55. > :13:00.he said the BBC this morning, which means that the vote will be either

:13:01. > :13:07.to accept the as negotiated or to leave on WTO rules, will you rebel

:13:08. > :13:11.on that question but no, no, sorry, if there's a deal, Parliament will

:13:12. > :13:14.have a say. So that's fine. And we will see what the deal is and we

:13:15. > :13:18.will look at the options two years down the road. When who knows

:13:19. > :13:22.what'll happen in our economy and world economy. That is one matter

:13:23. > :13:26.which I am content on. The Prime Minister, a woman of her word has

:13:27. > :13:32.said that in the event of a deal, Parliament will vote on any deal. I

:13:33. > :13:36.don't difficulty. To clarify, I will come onto that. These are important

:13:37. > :13:40.matters. I want to clarify, not argue with you. You are content that

:13:41. > :13:43.if there is a deal, we will come under no deal in a second, but if

:13:44. > :13:50.there is a deal, you are content with the choice of being able to

:13:51. > :13:52.vote for that deal or leaving on WTO terms? No, you're speculating as to

:13:53. > :13:58.what might happen in two years' time. What the options might be.

:13:59. > :14:01.Personally I find it inconceivable that the government will come back

:14:02. > :14:05.with a rubbish deal. They will either come back with a good deal,

:14:06. > :14:09.which I won't have a problem with or they will come back with no deal. To

:14:10. > :14:14.speculate about coming back with a deal, there is a variety of options.

:14:15. > :14:17.I understand that that is what the Lord amendments are about. They are

:14:18. > :14:25.about a vote at the end of the process. Do forgive me, the Lords

:14:26. > :14:27.amendment is not the same that I've voted for in Parliament. What we

:14:28. > :14:30.call the Chris Leslie amendment, which was talking about whatever the

:14:31. > :14:33.agreement is, whatever happens at the end of the negotiations,

:14:34. > :14:37.Parliament will have a vote. Parliament will have a say. The

:14:38. > :14:42.Lords amendment is a bit more technical. It is the principle of no

:14:43. > :14:46.deal that is agitating us. Let's clarify on this. They are

:14:47. > :14:50.complicated matters. What do you want the government to say? What do

:14:51. > :14:55.you want David Davis to say tomorrow on what should the Parliamentary

:14:56. > :14:59.process should be if there is no deal? Quite. I want a commitment

:15:00. > :15:03.from him that in the event of no deal, it will come into Parliament

:15:04. > :15:10.and Parliament will determine what happens next. It could be that in

:15:11. > :15:14.the event of no deal, the best thing is for us to jump off the cliff into

:15:15. > :15:17.WTO tariff is. I find it unlikely but that might be the reality. There

:15:18. > :15:22.might be other alternatives. Most importantly, including saying to the

:15:23. > :15:24.government, go back, carry on. The question that everybody has to ask

:15:25. > :15:35.is, why won't the government give My fear is what this is about is

:15:36. > :15:40.asked deliberately, not the Prime Minister, but others deliberately

:15:41. > :15:45.ensuring we have no deal and no deal pretty soon and in that event, we

:15:46. > :15:50.jumped off the cliff onto WTO tariffs and nobody in this country

:15:51. > :15:56.and the people of this country do not have a say. My constituents did

:15:57. > :16:00.not vote for hard Brexit. You do not want the government to

:16:01. > :16:07.have the ability if there is no deal to automatically fall back on the

:16:08. > :16:11.WTO rules? Quite. It is as simple as that. We are now speculating about

:16:12. > :16:17.what will happen in two years. I want to find out what happens

:16:18. > :16:22.tomorrow. What will you do if you don't get that assurance? I will

:16:23. > :16:26.either abstain, or I will vote to keep this amendment within the Bill.

:16:27. > :16:31.I will either vote against my government, which I do not do

:16:32. > :16:34.likely, I have never voted against my government until the Chris Leslie

:16:35. > :16:38.clause when the Bill was going through, or I will abstain, which

:16:39. > :16:42.has pretty much the same effect because it comes into the Commons

:16:43. > :16:48.with both amendments so you have positively to vote to take the map.

:16:49. > :16:54.Can you give us an idea of how many like-minded conservative colleagues

:16:55. > :16:59.there are. I genuinely do not know. You must talk to each other. I do

:17:00. > :17:06.not talk to every member of my party. You know people who are

:17:07. > :17:10.like-minded. I do. I am not doing numbers games. I know you want that

:17:11. > :17:16.but I genuinely do not know the figure. I think this is an

:17:17. > :17:22.uncomfortable truth. People have to understand what has happened in our

:17:23. > :17:26.country, two particular newspapers, creating an atmosphere and setting

:17:27. > :17:29.an agenda and I think many people are rather concerned, some

:17:30. > :17:35.frightened, to put their head over the parapet. There are many millions

:17:36. > :17:40.of people who feel totally excluded from this process. Many of them

:17:41. > :17:43.voted to remain. And they have lost their voice. We have covered the

:17:44. > :17:45.ground I wanted to. We're joined now by the Ukip MEP

:17:46. > :17:57.and former leader Nigel Farage. Article 50 triggered, we are leaving

:17:58. > :18:02.the EU, the single market and the customs union. What is left you to

:18:03. > :18:05.complain about? All of that will happen and hopefully we will get the

:18:06. > :18:09.triggered this week which is good news. What worries me a little I'm

:18:10. > :18:14.not sure the government recognises how strong their handers. At the

:18:15. > :18:17.summit in Brussels, the word in the corridors is that we are prepared to

:18:18. > :18:22.give away fishing waters as a bargaining chip and the worry is

:18:23. > :18:26.what deal we get. Are we leaving, yes I am pleased about that. You are

:18:27. > :18:31.under relevant voice in the deal because the deal will be voted on in

:18:32. > :18:36.Parliament and you have one MP. You are missing the point, the real vote

:18:37. > :18:40.in parliament is not in London but Strasbourg. This is perhaps the

:18:41. > :18:44.biggest obstacle the British Government faces. Not what happens

:18:45. > :18:49.in the Commons that the end of the two years, the European Parliament

:18:50. > :18:54.could veto the deal. What that means is people need to adopt a different

:18:55. > :18:56.approach. We do not need to be lobbying in the corridors of

:18:57. > :19:02.Brussels to get a good deal, we need is a country to be out there talking

:19:03. > :19:06.to the German car workers and Belgian chocolate makers, putting as

:19:07. > :19:10.much pressure as we can on politicians from across Europe to

:19:11. > :19:15.come to a sensible arrangement. It is in their interests more than

:19:16. > :19:22.ours. In what way is the vision of Brexit set out by David Davis any

:19:23. > :19:25.different from your own? I am delighted there are people now

:19:26. > :19:33.adopting the position I argued for many years. Good. But now... Like

:19:34. > :19:39.Douglas Carswell, he said he found David Davis' performers this morning

:19:40. > :19:44.reassuring. It is. And just as when Theresa May was Home Secretary every

:19:45. > :19:47.performance she gave was hugely reassuring. She was seen to be a

:19:48. > :19:54.heroine after her conference speeches and then did not deliver. I

:19:55. > :20:00.am concerned that even before we start we are making concessions. You

:20:01. > :20:04.described in the EU's divorce bill demands, 60 billion euros is floated

:20:05. > :20:10.around. You said it is laughable and I understand that. Do you maintain

:20:11. > :20:18.that we will not have to pay a penny to leave? It is nine months since we

:20:19. > :20:24.voted exit and assuming the trigger of Article 50, we would have paid 30

:20:25. > :20:28.billion in since we had a vote. We are still members. But honestly, I

:20:29. > :20:32.do not think there is an appetite for us to pay a massive divorce

:20:33. > :20:40.Bill. There are assets also. Not a penny? There will be some ongoing

:20:41. > :20:46.commitments, but the numbers talked about our 50, ?60 billion, they are

:20:47. > :20:51.frankly laughable. I am trying to find out if you are prepared to

:20:52. > :20:56.accept some kind of exit cost, it may be nowhere near 60 billion. We

:20:57. > :20:58.have to do a net agreement, the government briefed about our share

:20:59. > :21:05.of the European Union investment bank. Would you accept a

:21:06. > :21:10.transitional arrangement, deal, five, ten billion, as part of the

:21:11. > :21:15.divorce settlement? We are painted net ?30 million every single day at

:21:16. > :21:20.the moment, ?10 billion plus every year. That is just our contribution.

:21:21. > :21:27.We are going to make a massive saving on this. What do you make of

:21:28. > :21:32.what Anna Soubry said, that if there is no deal, and it is being talked

:21:33. > :21:36.about more. Maybe the government managing expectations. There is an

:21:37. > :21:41.expectation we will have a deal, but if there is no deal, that the

:21:42. > :21:46.government cannot just go to WTO rules, but it has to have a vote in

:21:47. > :21:49.parliament? By the time we get to that there will be a general

:21:50. > :21:55.election coming down the tracks and I suspect that if at the end of the

:21:56. > :21:59.two-year process there is no deal and by the way, no deal is a lot

:22:00. > :22:04.better for the nation than where we currently are, because we freed of

:22:05. > :22:07.regulations and able to make our own deals in the world. I think what

:22:08. > :22:14.would happen, and if Parliament said it did not back, at the end of the

:22:15. > :22:21.negotiation a general election would happen quickly. According to reports

:22:22. > :22:26.this morning, one of your most senior aides has passed a dossier to

:22:27. > :22:30.police claiming Tories committed electoral fraud in Thanet South, the

:22:31. > :22:36.seat contested in the election. What evidence to you have? I read that in

:22:37. > :22:39.the newspapers as you have. I am not going to comment on it. Will you not

:22:40. > :22:46.aware of the contents of the dossier? I am not aware of the

:22:47. > :22:52.dossier. He was your election strategists. I am dubious as to

:22:53. > :22:57.whether this dossier exists at all. Perhaps the newspapers have got this

:22:58. > :23:05.wrong. Concerns about the downloading of data the took place

:23:06. > :23:12.in that constituency, there are. Allegedly, he has refuted it, was it

:23:13. > :23:17.done by your MP to give information to the Tories, do you have evidence

:23:18. > :23:24.about? We have evidence Mr Carswell downloaded information, we have no

:23:25. > :23:28.evidence what he did with it. It is not just your aide who has been

:23:29. > :23:34.making allegations against the Conservatives in Thanet South and

:23:35. > :23:41.other seats, if the evidence was to be substantial, and if it was to

:23:42. > :23:45.result in another by-election being called an Thanet South had to be

:23:46. > :23:50.fought again, would you be the Ukip candidate? I probably would. You

:23:51. > :23:56.probably would? Yes. Just probably? Just probably. It would be your

:23:57. > :24:00.eighth attempt. Winning seats in parliament under first past the post

:24:01. > :24:03.is not the only way to change politics in Britain and I would like

:24:04. > :24:09.to think I proved that. Let's go back to Anna Soubry. The implication

:24:10. > :24:13.of what we were saying on the panel at the start of the show and what

:24:14. > :24:18.Nigel Farage was saying there would be that if at the end of the process

:24:19. > :24:22.whatever the vote, if the government were to lose it, it would provoke a

:24:23. > :24:27.general election properly. I think that would be right. Let's get real.

:24:28. > :24:31.The government is not going to come to Parliament with anything other

:24:32. > :24:39.than something it believes is a good deal and if it rejected it, would be

:24:40. > :24:43.unlikely, there would be a de facto vote of no confidence and it would

:24:44. > :24:48.be within the fixed term Parliaments act and that be it. The problem is,

:24:49. > :24:54.more likely, because of the story put up about the 50 billion, 60

:24:55. > :24:57.billion and you look at the way things are flagged up that both the

:24:58. > :25:02.Prime Minister and Boris Johnson saying, we should be asking them for

:25:03. > :25:07.money back, I think the big fear and the fear I have is we will be

:25:08. > :25:12.crashing out in six months. You think we could leave as quickly as

:25:13. > :25:18.six months. Explain that. I think they will stoke up the demand from

:25:19. > :25:22.the EU for 50, 60 billion back and my real concern is that within six

:25:23. > :25:27.months, where we're not making much progress, maybe nine months, and

:25:28. > :25:32.people are getting increasingly fed up with the EU because they are told

:25:33. > :25:35.it wants unreasonable demands, and then the crash. I think what is

:25:36. > :25:40.happening is the government is putting in place scaffolding at the

:25:41. > :25:45.bottom of the cliff to break our fall when we come to fall off that

:25:46. > :25:50.cliff and I think many in government are preparing not for a two-year

:25:51. > :25:56.process, but six, to nine months, off the cliff, out we go. That is my

:25:57. > :26:00.fear. That is interesting. I have not heard that express before by

:26:01. > :26:07.someone in your position. I suspect you have made Nigel Farage's date.

:26:08. > :26:13.It is a lovely thought. I would say to Anna Soubry she is out of date

:26:14. > :26:16.with this. 40 years ago there was a good argument for joining the common

:26:17. > :26:21.market because tariffs around the world was so high. That has changed

:26:22. > :26:25.with the World Trade Organisation. We are leaving the EU and rejoining

:26:26. > :26:34.a great big world and it is exciting. She was giving an

:26:35. > :26:35.interesting perspective on what could happen in nine months rather

:26:36. > :26:40.than two years. I thank you both. It was Philip Hammond's first

:26:41. > :26:42.budget on Wednesday - billed as a steady-as-she-goes

:26:43. > :26:48.affair, but turned out to cause uproar after the Chancellor appeared

:26:49. > :26:50.to contradict a Tory manifesto commitment with an increase

:26:51. > :26:52.in national insurance contributions. The aim was to address what some see

:26:53. > :27:01.as an imbalance in the tax system, where employees pay

:27:02. > :27:03.more National Insurance The controversy centres

:27:04. > :27:06.on increasing the so-called class 4 rate for the self-employed who make

:27:07. > :27:09.a profit of more than ?8,060 a year. It will go up in stages

:27:10. > :27:16.from 9% to 11% in 2019. The changes mean that over one

:27:17. > :27:20.and a half million will pay on average ?240 a year

:27:21. > :27:24.more in contributions. Some Conservative MPs were unhappy,

:27:25. > :27:30.with even the Wales Minister saying: "I will apologise to every

:27:31. > :27:33.voter in Wales that read the Conservative manifesto

:27:34. > :27:34.in the 2015 election." The Sun labelled Philip

:27:35. > :27:40.Hammond "spite van man". The Daily Mail called the budget

:27:41. > :27:43."no laughing matter". By Thursday, Theresa May

:27:44. > :27:45.said the government One of the first things I did

:27:46. > :27:51.as Prime Minister was to commission Matthew Taylor to review the rights

:27:52. > :27:55.and protections that were available to self-employed workers

:27:56. > :27:58.and whether they should be enhanced. People will be able to look

:27:59. > :28:00.at the government paper when we produce it, showing

:28:01. > :28:03.all our changes, and take And, of course, the Chancellor will

:28:04. > :28:08.be speaking, as will his ministers, to MPs, businesspeople and others

:28:09. > :28:12.to listen to the concerns. Well, the man you heard mentioned

:28:13. > :28:14.there, Matthew Taylor, has the job of producing

:28:15. > :28:28.a report into the future Welcome. The Chancellor has decided

:28:29. > :28:33.the self-employed should pay almost the same in National Insurance, not

:28:34. > :28:37.the same but almost, as the employed will stop what is left of your

:28:38. > :28:41.commission? The commission has a broader frame of reference and we

:28:42. > :28:47.are interested in the quality of work in the economy at the heart of

:28:48. > :28:52.what I hope will be proposing is a set of shifts that will improve the

:28:53. > :28:56.quality of that work so we have an economy where all work is fair and

:28:57. > :28:59.decent and all jobs give people scope for development and

:29:00. > :29:08.fulfilment. The issue of taxes a small part. You will cover that? We

:29:09. > :29:10.will, because the tax system and employment regulation system drive

:29:11. > :29:17.particular behaviours in our labour market. You approve I think of the

:29:18. > :29:22.general direction of this policy of raising National Insurance on the

:29:23. > :29:27.self-employed. Taxing them in return perhaps for more state benefits. Why

:29:28. > :29:31.are so many others on the left against it from Tim Farron to John

:29:32. > :29:36.McDonnell? Tax rises are unpopular and it is the role of the opposition

:29:37. > :29:40.parties to make capital from unpopular tax rises. I think as tax

:29:41. > :29:44.rises go this is broadly progressive. There are self-employed

:29:45. > :29:49.people on low incomes and they will be better off. It is economic league

:29:50. > :29:52.rational because the reason for the difference in National Insurance --

:29:53. > :29:57.economically. It was to do with state entitlements. The government

:29:58. > :30:02.is consulting about paid parental leave. A series of governments have

:30:03. > :30:07.not been good about thinking about medium sustainability of the tax

:30:08. > :30:11.base. Self-employment is growing. But it is eroding the tax base. It

:30:12. > :30:18.is important to address those issues. A number of think tanks have

:30:19. > :30:23.said this is a progressive move. Yet, a number of left-wing

:30:24. > :30:29.politicians have been against it. And a number of Tories have said

:30:30. > :30:32.this is a progressive move and not a Tory government move, the balance of

:30:33. > :30:37.you will pay more tax, but you will get more state benefits is not a

:30:38. > :30:41.Tory approach to things. That a Tory approach will be you will pay less

:30:42. > :30:44.tax but entitled to fewer benefits as well.

:30:45. > :30:54.I preferred in and policies to politics -- I prefer policies. When

:30:55. > :30:58.people look at the policy and when they look the fact that there is no

:30:59. > :31:00.real historical basis for that big national insurance differential,

:31:01. > :31:05.they see it is a sensible policy. I don't have to deal with the

:31:06. > :31:08.politics. There has been a huge growth in self-employment from the

:31:09. > :31:10.turn of the millennium. It's been strongest amongst older workers,

:31:11. > :31:18.women part-timers. Do you have any idea, do you have

:31:19. > :31:22.the data in your commission that could tell us how many are taking

:31:23. > :31:27.self-employment because they like the flexibility and they like the

:31:28. > :31:31.tax advantages that come with it, too, or they are being forced into

:31:32. > :31:36.it by employers who don't want the extra costs of employment? Do we

:31:37. > :31:42.know the difference? We do, broadly. Most surveys on self-employment and

:31:43. > :31:45.flexible forms of employment suggest about two thirds to three quarters

:31:46. > :31:49.enjoy it, they like the flexibility, they like the autonomy and about a

:31:50. > :31:54.third to one quarter are less happy. That tends to be because they would

:31:55. > :31:56.like to have a full-time permanent job. It is not necessary that they

:31:57. > :32:01.don't enjoy what they are doing, they would like to do other things.

:32:02. > :32:05.And some of the protections that come with it? Yes. There are some

:32:06. > :32:09.people who are forced into southern employees by high-risk but also some

:32:10. > :32:13.people feel like they can't get a proper job as it were. --

:32:14. > :32:19.self-employment by people who hire them. It is on the narrow matter of

:32:20. > :32:23.tax revenues but if you are employed on ?32,000 the state will take over

:32:24. > :32:27.?6,000 in national insurance contributions, that is quite chunky.

:32:28. > :32:31.If you are self-employed it is ?2300. But the big difference

:32:32. > :32:38.between those figures isn't what the employee is paying, it's the

:32:39. > :32:42.employer's contributions up to almost 14%, and cupped for as much

:32:43. > :32:51.as you are paid. What do you do about employers' contributions for

:32:52. > :32:55.the self employed? -- it is uncapped for as much. What I recommend is

:32:56. > :32:59.that we should probably move from taxing employment to taxing labour.

:33:00. > :33:03.We should probably have a more level playing field so it doesn't really

:33:04. > :33:07.matter... Explained that I thought it was the same thing. If you are a

:33:08. > :33:11.self-employed gardener, you are a different tax regime to a gardener

:33:12. > :33:20.who works for a gardening firm. On the individual side and on the firm

:33:21. > :33:23.side. As we see new business models, so-called gig working, partly with

:33:24. > :33:28.technology, we need a more level playing field saying that we're

:33:29. > :33:32.taxing people's work, not the form in which they deliver that. That is

:33:33. > :33:34.part of the reason we have seen the growth of particular business

:33:35. > :33:40.models. They are innovative and creative and partly driven by the

:33:41. > :33:44.fact that if you can describe yourself as self-employed there are

:33:45. > :33:46.tax advantages. Coming out in June? Will you come back and talk to us?

:33:47. > :33:48.Yes. We say goodbye to viewers

:33:49. > :33:53.in Scotland, who leave us now Coming up here in 20 minutes,

:33:54. > :33:58.we'll be talking to the former Tory MP who was the root

:33:59. > :34:10.of Donald Trump's allegation I'm Nina Warhurst, coming up

:34:11. > :34:15.in the North West... Has the Chancellor got

:34:16. > :34:17.businesses over a barrel? That's the problem I've got

:34:18. > :34:22.with this government at the minute - they used to be the government

:34:23. > :34:25.of business, now they're Well, stirring things up

:34:26. > :34:31.here in the studio are two Jeff Smith is the Labour MP

:34:32. > :34:36.for Manchester Withington. David Mowat the Conservative

:34:37. > :34:38.for Warrington South and also Minister responsible

:34:39. > :34:40.for Community, Health and Care. It's budget week!

:34:41. > :34:44.How was it for you, David? Well, I think it was

:34:45. > :34:49.a good budget on the whole. I suppose that the things that sort

:34:50. > :34:52.of hit me most were the growth forecasts have increased.

:34:53. > :34:54.That means more jobs. And, as you say, I'm

:34:55. > :34:57.the Minister for social care, so I was very pleased

:34:58. > :34:59.that the Chancellor came up with No doubt a different

:35:00. > :35:03.take for you, Jeff? Well, I thought it was

:35:04. > :35:05.very disappointing? Well, I thought it was

:35:06. > :35:06.very disappointing. Not just because of the broken

:35:07. > :35:09.promises on national insurance, but I don't think it has

:35:10. > :35:11.the long-term answers. I think the long-term outlook

:35:12. > :35:13.is not as optimistic OK, and you're not alone in that

:35:14. > :35:17.Jeff, because even some of Philip Hammond's Conservative

:35:18. > :35:19.colleagues said that tax rises for the self-employed would hardly

:35:20. > :35:24.have the white van man popping So was there anything

:35:25. > :35:27.at all to toast? Well, that was more money

:35:28. > :35:30.for social care, as David said, a bit of help for business rate

:35:31. > :35:33.payers, and a small boost for pubs. Guess where Stuart Pollitt chose

:35:34. > :35:37.to go to see if it's cheers Market day and

:35:38. > :35:45.Budget day in Lancaster. All eyes on the man

:35:46. > :35:49.controlling the money. As pints were pulled

:35:50. > :35:52.in the Sun Hotel, the boss was as interested in business rates

:35:53. > :35:56.as he was in beer prices. The rates on this place

:35:57. > :36:00.have gone up ?70,000. Have you seen anything

:36:01. > :36:01.there that helps you? No, it was a very

:36:02. > :36:06.disappointing budget for me. There were three options

:36:07. > :36:12.that the Chancellor mentioned. So the last one is discretionary,

:36:13. > :36:18.so Lord knows what that means! In the same bar, two councillors -

:36:19. > :36:21.one Tory, one Labour - The report that we had done last

:36:22. > :36:28.year by PricewaterhouseCoopers shows we've got a ?90 billion spending gap

:36:29. > :36:31.for adult social care and, on the figures announced today,

:36:32. > :36:39.we're looking at perhaps ?30 million may come to Lancashire,

:36:40. > :36:41.although we need to see I think there was some really

:36:42. > :36:44.important things for Lancashire, particularly the ?90 million

:36:45. > :36:46.for highways in It's money coming up from London

:36:47. > :36:50.and, with the announcement on social care, I think that's a huge step

:36:51. > :36:53.in the right direction. This brewery runs the Sun

:36:54. > :36:56.and four other pubs. The rates on one of them

:36:57. > :36:59.has gone up nearly 500%. They feel like a business

:37:00. > :37:04.under attack. We've got the pension rights coming

:37:05. > :37:07.soon, national minimum wage. It's hitting the traders,

:37:08. > :37:10.the high street traders, the most - the retail and leisure sector -

:37:11. > :37:12.the actual guys that go out there and then

:37:13. > :37:17.there's their companies and actually And that's the problem I've got

:37:18. > :37:23.with this government at the minute. They used to be the government

:37:24. > :37:25.of business, now they're Well, they won't be raising a glass

:37:26. > :37:30.here at the brewery to this budget, but what's the view across the city

:37:31. > :37:33.for those who want to make a living, These students in the catering

:37:34. > :37:37.college have big ambitions. Eventually, like, I want to move to

:37:38. > :37:40.London and have my own restaurant. I really want to go ahead

:37:41. > :37:44.and work in a kitchen, I really want to go

:37:45. > :37:47.ahead and push myself. The Chancellor announced new money

:37:48. > :37:49.for technical education like this, creating what some have dubbed

:37:50. > :37:57.T-Levels for 16 to 18-year-olds. That will materialise

:37:58. > :37:59.in '19, maybe 2020, so, I mean, that would be

:38:00. > :38:02.a really valuable investment. The technical qualifications

:38:03. > :38:04.are exactly what the employment But what the college needs,

:38:05. > :38:10.like a lot of educational establishments, is more cash

:38:11. > :38:16.to help you deliver. -- establishments, is more

:38:17. > :38:18.cash to help it deliver. Within the schools, you'll find that

:38:19. > :38:21.sixth form students are funded far better than a student that

:38:22. > :38:23.comes to college. The Chancellor didn't have much

:38:24. > :38:25.of that to dish out, but was his approach

:38:26. > :38:28.the right recipe for this region? David, the brewery director

:38:29. > :38:32.there summed up the attitude You;ve stopped being the government

:38:33. > :38:38.of business, now you're I mean, he did say that

:38:39. > :38:41.and he was concerned about business rates,

:38:42. > :38:43.and I understand that, but I would say this that in general

:38:44. > :38:46.the re-evaluation that's taken place, which is a net neutral thing

:38:47. > :38:49.across the whole country, has benefited the North

:38:50. > :38:51.and the North West Clearly, the guy that you spoke to,

:38:52. > :38:55.in terms of the package that you did, wasn't in that place,

:38:56. > :38:59.but in general... But there were 6000 start-ups

:39:00. > :39:03.in Warrington last year. They will struggle, won't they,

:39:04. > :39:05.with these increases in national insurance contribution

:39:06. > :39:08.and also with dividends? Well, in terms of, first of all,

:39:09. > :39:12.on the business rates point, Warrington is a net winner

:39:13. > :39:14.on the changes to business rates that the government has brought in,

:39:15. > :39:17.and I'm pleased about that. The point you just raised

:39:18. > :39:20.on national insurance, um, yes, it does affect people that

:39:21. > :39:23.are self-employed and it puts them on a similar tax bases to those

:39:24. > :39:27.that are not self-employed and it's actually a progressive change

:39:28. > :39:30.and it's a change that I think probably had to be made.

:39:31. > :39:33.Does it not jar, though...? In general, those that are poorly

:39:34. > :39:36.paid, you know, under ?20,000, But does it not jar

:39:37. > :39:43.with the Conservative spirit of encouraging the entrepreneurial

:39:44. > :39:45.spirit, supporting small businesses? Giving them the financial

:39:46. > :39:51.freedom to thrive? Look, we are the party of low tax,

:39:52. > :39:54.so we would prefer lower taxes for everybody,

:39:55. > :39:56.but we're also the party of fair tax, and it just isn't fair

:39:57. > :39:59.if somebody that is employed, and is earning ?30,000 a year,

:40:00. > :40:02.is paying a significantly different amount of tax than somebody

:40:03. > :40:04.that is self-employed and earning ?30,000 a year, possibly working

:40:05. > :40:06.side-by-side with them. That is what the Chancellor

:40:07. > :40:10.has been fixing. Did we need to level

:40:11. > :40:13.the playing field? Well, I don't think it has

:40:14. > :40:15.levelled the playing field, I think the problem is that we're

:40:16. > :40:18.taking money from the lower and middle income earners

:40:19. > :40:23.at the same time as we are giving ?3.8 billion in cuts

:40:24. > :40:25.to corporation tax. And I think the Labour Party

:40:26. > :40:27.would make different choices. I mean, the national

:40:28. > :40:29.insurance change hits those that are paid the most.

:40:30. > :40:32.It's a very progressive thing. And the Resolution Foundation

:40:33. > :40:34.and others have accepted that. But what about the dividends,

:40:35. > :40:36.tax-free dividends coming down from ?5,000 to ?2000?

:40:37. > :40:37.Yes. That's going to affect medium

:40:38. > :40:39.business owners, isn't it? Well, it's also a very

:40:40. > :40:41.progressive thing. I mean, the people that are affected

:40:42. > :40:45.mostly by that, the most by that, are those with share portfolios

:40:46. > :40:46.outside of ISAs worth Now, if those are the people

:40:47. > :40:51.that the Labour Party think ought to be the government's priority,

:40:52. > :40:54.the Labour Party has changed even But why has the Federation

:40:55. > :40:58.of Small Businesses said that this will not help Warrington's upwards

:40:59. > :41:01.turn when it comes to business? Well, I mean, because it is a tax

:41:02. > :41:04.increase, and there are people, like I say, who are earning ?30,000

:41:05. > :41:07.at the moment, who are paying significantly lower amounts of tax,

:41:08. > :41:09.because they're self-employed, than they would've been

:41:10. > :41:11.had they been employed. But it undermines the government's

:41:12. > :41:15.own mission for the UK to be Well, look, if I was self-employed,

:41:16. > :41:22.and I had a historic tax anomaly, which is what it is,

:41:23. > :41:27.that was beneficial to me, and the government took it away

:41:28. > :41:30.from me, albeit in a progressive way, yes, I would be saying those

:41:31. > :41:32.sorts of things too. If this was a Labour policy,

:41:33. > :41:37.you'd be right behind it. It's redistribution, isn't it?

:41:38. > :41:39.I don't think it is redistribution. If you take it in conjunction

:41:40. > :41:45.with the class two abolition, then that's where you could see

:41:46. > :41:47.it is as a redistribution, but the class twos have

:41:48. > :41:53.already been introduced, so these changes to class four

:41:54. > :41:55.are not really redistributed. And just going back to your business

:41:56. > :41:58.rate question, I met with the Chorlton traders last week

:41:59. > :42:00.in my constituency, You know, I welcome the money

:42:01. > :42:04.that's going into the pubs for their business rate,

:42:05. > :42:07.but it's not enough to allay the worries of the businesses

:42:08. > :42:08.in South Manchester. They've said

:42:09. > :42:11.it's good for businesses. I mean, the facts are,

:42:12. > :42:13.on the business rates, it's overwhelmingly neutral and

:42:14. > :42:16.it's overall of benefit to the North versus the South, and the reason

:42:17. > :42:19.for that is because the change that's been made in the revaluation

:42:20. > :42:22.follows what the properties are worth and, on the whole,

:42:23. > :42:25.places like London have seen values And like I say, my constituency

:42:26. > :42:30.will benefit from it. OK, I'm sure we'll be

:42:31. > :42:32.back to that topic. Now, in the run up to the Budget,

:42:33. > :42:38.there was one issue dominated, though -

:42:39. > :42:41.it was that of social care. Here's how three of our MPs reacted

:42:42. > :42:44.to the ?2 billion over three years that Philip Hammond has found

:42:45. > :42:46.for local councils. The NHS and social care needs

:42:47. > :42:49.between 8.5 and 15 billion, just to get by, quite frankly,

:42:50. > :42:52.so there will be a lot of people in my constituency that'll be

:42:53. > :42:54.worried about their future, and whether they're going to get

:42:55. > :42:57.the care they need! The social care budget breaks down

:42:58. > :43:00.to about ?40 per head. Yeah, but we've already got

:43:01. > :43:04.the Better Care Fund, This is additional funding

:43:05. > :43:10.to recognise that more needs to be done to help with social care,

:43:11. > :43:13.and it's not just about money. I think we've talked in the past

:43:14. > :43:16.about how we need to be more innovative about joining up

:43:17. > :43:19.social care and the NHS together. The Chancellor is -

:43:20. > :43:21.at the same time, it's worth bearing in mind -

:43:22. > :43:24.giving away something like ?6 billion in tax cuts

:43:25. > :43:28.through capital gains, through, for example,

:43:29. > :43:30.inheritance tax cuts for people That's giveaways

:43:31. > :43:34.he didn't need to give. He could've been spending

:43:35. > :43:36.that money on social care. David, you are the minister

:43:37. > :43:39.responsible for Community, Did you really think,

:43:40. > :43:42.did the Chancellor really think that 2 billion over three years

:43:43. > :43:45.would even touch the sides? 2 billion is the gap

:43:46. > :43:49.that we've been asked for by the LGA and others,

:43:50. > :43:51.in terms of meeting I was in Liverpool at

:43:52. > :44:01.a conference on Thursday. I mean, that city is getting

:44:02. > :44:04.an increase just by the announcement at the budget

:44:05. > :44:06.of almost 10%, in terms of an uplift,

:44:07. > :44:08.to its social care budgets. But because of the redistribution

:44:09. > :44:10.of their budget, they're having to do things like get rid

:44:11. > :44:13.of foster carers? Well, we're talking

:44:14. > :44:14.about the budget. ?2 billion is a great deal of money

:44:15. > :44:18.and it's going to make a great deal of difference

:44:19. > :44:20.and, as a matter of fact, that money also, in terms

:44:21. > :44:22.of where the allocation formula works, is a particular

:44:23. > :44:25.benefit to the North West, because the precept

:44:26. > :44:26.is of less benefit here. But let's talk about some

:44:27. > :44:29.of the cuts in social care We've been told they'll have

:44:30. > :44:33.to reduce respite care, which will put

:44:34. > :44:38.a greater burden on carers. They'll have to increase charges

:44:39. > :44:42.for hospital transport, reduce money for end-of-life care,

:44:43. > :44:44.disabilities - these are important elements that affect people's lives,

:44:45. > :44:46.their health and happiness. And all those points are right,

:44:47. > :44:52.but Warrington, two days ago, were informed that they're getting

:44:53. > :44:55.?4 million extra for social care, that is a significant

:44:56. > :44:58.amount of money for any council I was responsible for

:44:59. > :45:01.lobbying, amongst others, But Pat Wright, the councillor

:45:02. > :45:09.in charge of social care in Warrington, says,

:45:10. > :45:14."No, we are at rock bottom, "we don't have enough money to do

:45:15. > :45:18.what we want to do in order I mean, just on the facts,

:45:19. > :45:21.42% of all councils, 42% of all councils in the country,

:45:22. > :45:24.increased their social care budget OK, Jeff, the truth is, despite this

:45:25. > :45:28.being desperately unpopular, the Tories are still well ahead

:45:29. > :45:30.in the polls. Yeah, but just going back

:45:31. > :45:35.to the social care, the King's Fund have said that we need ?2 billion

:45:36. > :45:38.straightaway just to sustain things. Per year.

:45:39. > :45:39.Per year. So I think probably David

:45:40. > :45:41.is secretly disappointed this But we've taken 4.6 billion out

:45:42. > :45:47.of social care since 2010, During the course of this

:45:48. > :45:50.Parliament, social care In Manchester, we've had to take

:45:51. > :45:54.?17 million out of social care. We've had to change

:45:55. > :45:56.the criteria in Manchester. So people who were getting help

:45:57. > :46:01.and though not getting help, -- So people who were getting help

:46:02. > :46:04.are now not getting help, because of the actions

:46:05. > :46:05.of this government. I mean, just on the point of fact,

:46:06. > :46:08.Manchester has got... It is illegal for Manchester

:46:09. > :46:10.to change the criteria. The criteria was set out

:46:11. > :46:13.in the Care Act of 2014, which set out what the statutory

:46:14. > :46:15.criteria are for social care, and Manchester, like every other

:46:16. > :46:18.local authority in the country, has got a statutory duty

:46:19. > :46:20.to provide care packages Yeah, and we used to provide extra

:46:21. > :46:24.to the statutory duty and now, a couple of years ago,

:46:25. > :46:27.we had to reduce that David, we've got the King's Fund,

:46:28. > :46:30.we've got the LGA, the Conservative local councils,

:46:31. > :46:32.the opposition, all saying... Lots of Conservative MPs

:46:33. > :46:35.saying this is a shambles, I don't think they are saying

:46:36. > :46:38.that post the announcement They've all said that

:46:39. > :46:41.post announcement. Can you name which Conservative

:46:42. > :46:43.MPs have said that since the announcement?

:46:44. > :46:45.I think you'll struggle. We could probably find

:46:46. > :46:47.lots of other MPs... Well, I'm sure Jeff will say it!

:46:48. > :46:52.I will, I will! You said I was secretly

:46:53. > :46:55.That was an extremely good settlement, in the context

:46:56. > :46:58.of the overall public finances, which we are still trying

:46:59. > :47:00.to pay off the deficit, and that is an overriding point

:47:01. > :47:04.that is still there, that we inherited in 2010.

:47:05. > :47:09.But this settlement exceeded expectations and, frankly,

:47:10. > :47:12.I spoke to a number of stakeholders in charities and the care home

:47:13. > :47:14.sector after the announcement that was made, and they were

:47:15. > :47:15.pleased by this. Jeff...

:47:16. > :47:17.And I... Sorry, yeah.

:47:18. > :47:20.Austerity lives on - that was the message

:47:21. > :47:24.He stood up and said this will go on, it has to go on,

:47:25. > :47:33.44% of people think that the current way austerity is being dealt with

:47:34. > :47:35.is unfair, but only 8% would prefer Jeremy Corbyn

:47:36. > :47:39.And we clearly need to get our message across.

:47:40. > :47:41.I think what is clear... What is the message?

:47:42. > :47:44.Well, what is clear is that austerity is not working, is it?

:47:45. > :47:46.And the government keep having to revise their figures.

:47:47. > :47:48.They said they'd get rid of the deficit by 2015.

:47:49. > :47:51.It now looks like it will go to at least 2022.

:47:52. > :47:52.So the government's plan is not working.

:47:53. > :47:55.But hang on, hang on, people don't believe there's

:47:56. > :47:57.a credible opposition to the government, do they?

:47:58. > :48:00.Well, so we need to communicate better, we need to make sure

:48:01. > :48:02.that our policies will... Do you need a different leader?

:48:03. > :48:05.Look, I don't think the public would welcome a leadership contest now,

:48:06. > :48:08.when we've got Brexit happening, we've got lots of major problems.

:48:09. > :48:11.I think for the Labour Party to be in the middle of a leadership

:48:12. > :48:15.I think people would see that as a dereliction of duty

:48:16. > :48:18.to the job we've got to do, which is to take the opposition...

:48:19. > :48:21.And it doesn't worry you that only 8% of the public think that

:48:22. > :48:23.McDonnell would've done a better job on the budget?

:48:24. > :48:29.And our trailing in the polls worries me.

:48:30. > :48:32.You know, we shouldn't hide from this, this is a problem for us,

:48:33. > :48:35.so we just need to redouble our work and make sure that we take

:48:36. > :48:39.I mean, Labour's position is that we need to borrow another

:48:40. > :48:41.?500 million and presumably borrow it, if it's not from

:48:42. > :48:43.the magic money tree. Well...

:48:44. > :48:45.And, you know, Jeff said that we have revised the figures

:48:46. > :48:48.this week and that is true, the Chancellor has revised

:48:49. > :48:50.the borrowing figures this week, because the economy is growing

:48:51. > :48:52.faster than expected, borrowing is coming down

:48:53. > :48:54.during the rest of this Parliament more quickly than expected, that is

:48:55. > :48:56.true, and I'm pleased about it. Jeff?

:48:57. > :48:59.Well, we've never said we want to borrow ?500 million.

:49:00. > :49:02.What we have said is that interest rates are at a record low,

:49:03. > :49:05.now is the time to borrow to invest for the long term,

:49:06. > :49:07.to invest in the infrastructure and the productivity that

:49:08. > :49:09.would make our economy recover, because, at the moment, it's not.

:49:10. > :49:14.So, there is some help for social care, but that leaves the small

:49:15. > :49:17.matter of how local councils protect the rest of their services.

:49:18. > :49:19.Kevin Fitzpatrick has an update on one council's attempts to keep

:49:20. > :49:23.them afloat by getting local people to play their part.

:49:24. > :49:31.Swimming pools and libraries, Sure Start centres and museums -

:49:32. > :49:33.Swimming pools and libraries, children's centres and museums -

:49:34. > :49:36.many have closed their doors to the public as austerity

:49:37. > :49:38.But in Wigan, everything has remained open.

:49:39. > :49:40.Facilities, like this one in Tyldsley, are now

:49:41. > :49:44.It's part of a policy shift, which has seen the council reduce

:49:45. > :49:47.costs by keeping hold of buildings, but transfering responsibility

:49:48. > :49:50.to the community. It's become known as the Wigan Deal.

:49:51. > :49:54.We thought that there was enough interest from groups who are already

:49:55. > :49:57.using these buildings to take some of the responsibilities

:49:58. > :50:02.on and we put money in there, which was like an investor save,

:50:03. > :50:05.in terms of helping people to start up, and it's worked well

:50:06. > :50:07.in terms of the usage now of these facilities.

:50:08. > :50:10.Like many councils in the North West, Wigan will have lost

:50:11. > :50:15.around 40% of its 2010 budget by 2020.

:50:16. > :50:18.Others do now have some facilities run by volunteers,

:50:19. > :50:21.but Wigan has handed over as many as possible.

:50:22. > :50:24.26 community buidlings and 18 playing field

:50:25. > :50:26.areas are now currently, or soon to be,

:50:27. > :50:33.Under its new volunteer management team, the Sunshine House community

:50:34. > :50:38.centre in Scholes appears to have thrived.

:50:39. > :50:40.I think that they are doing a wonderful job.

:50:41. > :50:42.They are giving back to the community what

:50:43. > :50:48.You get the right person in, you know, Barbara

:50:49. > :50:50.is doing a marvellous job at handling her staff.

:50:51. > :50:52.I'm told I'm always talking about it.

:50:53. > :50:54.I said, "Well, you talk about things you enjoy."

:50:55. > :50:59.Ten times as many people now come through their doors every week

:51:00. > :51:03.and they're expanding into an empty building next door.

:51:04. > :51:07.We are a successful business, you know, and I think the fact

:51:08. > :51:10.that the council give us the freedom and the opportunity to do

:51:11. > :51:14.Last year, Lancashire County Council closed 26

:51:15. > :51:20.In Cheshire East, four Sure Start centres have gone.

:51:21. > :51:23.While currently, in Bury, they're considering shutting up

:51:24. > :51:30.We would make a genuine effort to find out what people

:51:31. > :51:33.want the council to run, what they want them to fund.

:51:34. > :51:37.This is something that people want the council to fund,

:51:38. > :51:40.which is why we would fight to keep this library and others.

:51:41. > :51:45.With Manchester among other councils now following in Wigan's footsteps,

:51:46. > :51:47.it could be that, in future, we'll see more communities running

:51:48. > :51:51.facilities themselves, if they want to keep them.

:51:52. > :51:54.Jeff, that put a smile on all of our faces.

:51:55. > :51:57.What's wrong with local communities, with the community spirit being used

:51:58. > :52:02.Well, nothing wrong with community spirit, that's great,

:52:03. > :52:05.and my local swimming baths has been taken over by a community.

:52:06. > :52:06.Yeah. They do a fantastic job.

:52:07. > :52:09.But the trouble is, it's not necessarily

:52:10. > :52:11.a sustainable solution long-term, is it?

:52:12. > :52:15.So they are working hard to keep the bus going,

:52:16. > :52:18.-- So they are working hard to keep the baths going,

:52:19. > :52:20.but they are always scrambling around.

:52:21. > :52:21.And it's happened with libraries and other committee

:52:22. > :52:25.Groups take them over, have to work really hard,

:52:26. > :52:27.they're always scrambling around for that future long-term funding,

:52:28. > :52:30.and if they have a big problem, capital problem, that isn't

:52:31. > :52:35.and if they have a big problem, a capital problem, there isn't

:52:36. > :52:39.Say the water pump broke in our local baths,

:52:40. > :52:41.they'd have a big problem. That's it.

:52:42. > :52:43.It's not even the big jobs. It's the little jobs.

:52:44. > :52:45.The tiles falling off in the swimming pool.

:52:46. > :52:46.What happens then, David? Well...

:52:47. > :52:49.You can't rely on people's good nature for ever.

:52:50. > :52:51.I mean, it was a nice package. And no, you can't.

:52:52. > :52:54.I mean, I think it's good the community steps forward

:52:55. > :52:56.sometimes, and we've seen that with our libraries in Warrington.

:52:57. > :52:59.Public services also do need to be properly funded and we started this

:53:00. > :53:01.whole programme by people complaining about business rates

:53:02. > :53:04.when, unfortunately, you know, we do have to pay rates and taxes

:53:05. > :53:06.which, in the end, fund our public services and there's no

:53:07. > :53:09.getting away from that, and there isn't a magic money

:53:10. > :53:11.tree, and we just need to get the right balance.

:53:12. > :53:13.And that's what the government are doing.

:53:14. > :53:15.Oh, that there were a magic money tree!

:53:16. > :53:17.With tributes to a landmark of literature and the rest

:53:18. > :53:19.of this week's news, now here's Carol Lowe

:53:20. > :53:23.The Vice Chair of the Wallasey Labour Party could face

:53:24. > :53:26.Paul Davies has been referred to the party's disciplinary body

:53:27. > :53:33.Labour and the Lib Dems in Pendle were accused of turning a blind eye

:53:34. > :53:36.to racism amid claims of a deal with the British National Party's

:53:37. > :53:42.Doing deals with the British National Party is utterly

:53:43. > :53:46.repugnant and unacceptable, whether at local council

:53:47. > :53:52.18 months after water contamination affected hundreds of thousands

:53:53. > :53:56.of people in Lancashire, the organisation investigating says

:53:57. > :54:00.it's still not ready to announce its findings.

:54:01. > :54:05.500 animal deaths in less than four years, and now no license.

:54:06. > :54:08.Councillors in Barrow ruled that South Lakes Safari Zoo

:54:09. > :54:14.And remembering a giant of political literature.

:54:15. > :54:17.It's 80 years since George Orwell exposed the grimness of life

:54:18. > :54:24.for millions in The Road to Wigan Pier.

:54:25. > :54:27.Before we go, there were concerns this week for car workers

:54:28. > :54:35.from General Motors. PSA Group bought Vauxhall

:54:36. > :54:37.The plant currently employs 2,000 people, making the Astra,

:54:38. > :54:41.It's thought the group could have too many plants across Europe,

:54:42. > :54:44.and Brexit might impact which of them ends up closing.

:54:45. > :54:47.The problem really is that Ellesmere Port,

:54:48. > :54:51.like the British industry, is heavily dependent on imported

:54:52. > :55:00.It would be easier, after Brexit, to do that on the European mainland.

:55:01. > :55:05.We'll be triggering Article 50 before we know it.

:55:06. > :55:10.David, this is the beginning, isn't it, that we need to really about?

:55:11. > :55:13.Well, the takeover in Ellesmere Port isn't to do with Brexit.

:55:14. > :55:15.I mean, I voted to Remain, but the country didn't.

:55:16. > :55:18.No, but 57% of our imports are from the EU.

:55:19. > :55:22.And what I'm about to say, though, is that one of the things that

:55:23. > :55:24.will benefit the competitiveness in Ellesmere Port is that

:55:25. > :55:29.our exchange rate has gone down post-Brexit,

:55:30. > :55:31.it's actually gone down by more than the tariffs would be,

:55:32. > :55:34.and that would make them more competitive vis-a-vis some

:55:35. > :55:36.of the plants in Europe that they will have to compete

:55:37. > :55:40.But it's extremely important, and Greg Clark knows there's,

:55:41. > :55:42.it's extremely important that we keep Ellesmere.

:55:43. > :55:45.But there will be tariffs when it comes to import and export?

:55:46. > :55:48.Yes, but actually, the tariffs will be lower than the exchange rate

:55:49. > :55:50.However, I don't want to minimise it.

:55:51. > :55:53.You know, it's vital that companies like Nissan in Sunderland,

:55:54. > :55:56.Vauxhall in Ellesmere Port, Jaguar in Liverpool,

:55:57. > :56:00.it's vital that all of these companies stay with us and grow

:56:01. > :56:03.and, actually, up till now, that is what's happening.

:56:04. > :56:07.Our economy is growing faster than anybody else

:56:08. > :56:09.in Europe at the moment and growing faster post-Brexit.

:56:10. > :56:15.Jeff, how do we make sure these countries are protected

:56:16. > :56:17.-- Jeff, how do we make sure these companies are protected

:56:18. > :56:22.in these uncertain times? Well, it's going to be difficult.

:56:23. > :56:29.In terms of the Astra, it imports more parts, but we need an

:56:30. > :56:33.intervention and this government helping out the car industry and

:56:34. > :56:37.whether that is help with business rates, investment in training and

:56:38. > :56:42.skills to improve productivity, that is how we sustain the future for the

:56:43. > :56:46.and Greg Clark has spoken to the and Greg Clark has spoken to the

:56:47. > :56:55.management of Ellesmere Port, and not much difference tween Jeff and

:56:56. > :56:57.me on that. Lovely and we end on that point of agreement.

:56:58. > :57:01.Phil McCann has the onerous task of heading to Cannes for us next

:57:02. > :57:04.week, as local council leaders look for funding in the South of France.

:57:05. > :57:19.Now the government plans for new grammar schools.

:57:20. > :57:21.The Education Secretary Justine Greening was

:57:22. > :57:23.speaking to a conference of headteachers on Friday.

:57:24. > :57:25.They're normally a pretty polite bunch, but they didn't

:57:26. > :57:32.Broadcasters weren't allowed into the speech,

:57:33. > :57:36.but this was captured on a camera phone.

:57:37. > :57:39.And we have to recognise actually for grammars, in terms of

:57:40. > :57:43.disadvantaged children, that they have, they really

:57:44. > :57:46.do help them close the attainment gap.

:57:47. > :57:48.And at the same time we should recognise that

:57:49. > :57:55...That parents also want choice for their children and that

:57:56. > :58:02.those schools are often very oversubscribed.

:58:03. > :58:11.I suppose it is a rite of passage for and education secretaries to

:58:12. > :58:16.have this at a head teachers conference book the head are usually

:58:17. > :58:19.more polite. Isn't part of the problem, whether one is for or

:58:20. > :58:26.against the expansion of grammar schools, the government plans are

:58:27. > :58:30.complicated, you cannot sum them up in a sentence. The proof of that is

:58:31. > :58:34.they can still get away with denying they are expanding grammar schools.

:58:35. > :58:37.They will find an alternative formulation because it is not as

:58:38. > :58:41.simple as a brute creation of what we used to know is grammar schools

:58:42. > :58:48.with the absolute cut-off of the 11 plus. I am surprised how easy they

:58:49. > :58:52.found it politically. We saw the clip of Justine Greening being

:58:53. > :58:56.jeered a little bit but in the grand scheme, compared to another

:58:57. > :59:00.government trying this idea a decade ago they have got away with it

:59:01. > :59:04.easily and I think what is happening is a perverse consequence of Brexit

:59:05. > :59:09.and the media attention on Brexit, the government of the day can just

:59:10. > :59:13.about get away with slightly more contentious domestic policies on the

:59:14. > :59:19.correct assumption we will be too busy investing our attention in

:59:20. > :59:22.Article 50 and two years of negotiations, WTO terms at

:59:23. > :59:27.everything we have been discussing. I wonder if after grammar schools

:59:28. > :59:30.there will be examples of contentious domestic policies

:59:31. > :59:39.Theresa May can slide in stock because Brexit sucks the life out,

:59:40. > :59:44.takes the attention away. You are a supporter. Broadly. Are you happy

:59:45. > :59:49.with the government approach? They need to have more gumption and stop

:59:50. > :59:53.being apologetic. It is a bazaar area of public policy where we judge

:59:54. > :59:58.the policy on grammar schools based on what it does for children whose

:59:59. > :00:03.parents are unemployed, living on sink estates in Liverpool. It is

:00:04. > :00:07.absurd, we don't judge any other policy like that. It is simple, not

:00:08. > :00:12.contentious, people who are not sure, ask them if they would apply

:00:13. > :00:18.to send their child there, six out of ten said they would. Parents want

:00:19. > :00:20.good schools for their children, we should have appropriate education

:00:21. > :00:24.and they should be straightforward, this is about the future of the

:00:25. > :00:28.economy and we need bright children to get education at the highest

:00:29. > :00:35.level, education for academically bright children. It is supposed to

:00:36. > :00:37.be a signature policy of the Theresa May administration that marks a

:00:38. > :00:42.government different from David Cameron's government who did not go

:00:43. > :00:46.down this road. The signature is pretty blurred, it is hard to read.

:00:47. > :00:54.It is. She is trying to address concerns about those who fail to get

:00:55. > :00:57.into these selective schools and tried to targeted in poorer areas

:00:58. > :01:01.and the rest of it. She will probably come across so many

:01:02. > :01:05.obstacles. It is not clear what form it will take in the end. It is

:01:06. > :01:08.really an example of a signature policy not fully thought through. I

:01:09. > :01:12.think it was one of her first announcements. It was. It surprised

:01:13. > :01:18.everybody. Surprised at the speed and pace at which they were planning

:01:19. > :01:22.to go. Ever since, there have been qualifications and hesitations en

:01:23. > :01:26.route with good cause, in my view. I disagree with Juliet that this is...

:01:27. > :01:29.We all want good schools but if you don't get in there and you end up in

:01:30. > :01:33.a less good school. They already do that. We have selection based on the

:01:34. > :01:37.income of parents getting into a good catchment area, based on the

:01:38. > :01:44.faith of the parents. That becomes very attainable! I might been too

:01:45. > :01:46.shot run christenings for these. -- I have been.

:01:47. > :01:49.Now, you may remember this time last week we were talking

:01:50. > :01:51.about the extraordinary claims by US President Donald Trump,

:01:52. > :01:53.on Twitter of course, that Barack Obama had ordered

:01:54. > :01:56.And there was me thinking that wiretaps went out

:01:57. > :02:01.Is it legal for a sitting President to do so, he asked,

:02:02. > :02:10.concluding it was a "new low", and later comparing it to Watergate.

:02:11. > :02:14.Since then, the White House has been pressed to provide evidence for this

:02:15. > :02:20.It hasn't, but it seems it may have initially come from a report on a US

:02:21. > :02:22.website by the former Conservative MP Louise Mensch.

:02:23. > :02:25.She wrote that the FBI had been granted a warrant to intercept

:02:26. > :02:33.communications between Trump's campaign and Russia.

:02:34. > :02:41.Well, Louise Mensch joins us now from New York.

:02:42. > :02:48.Louise, you claimed in early November that the FBI had secured a

:02:49. > :02:52.court warrants to monitor communications between trump Tower

:02:53. > :02:56.in New York at two Russian banks. It's now four months later. Isn't it

:02:57. > :03:01.the case that nobody has proved the existence of this warrant?

:03:02. > :03:07.First of all, forgive me Andrew, one takes 1's life in one's hand when it

:03:08. > :03:11.is you but I have to correct your characterisation of my reporting. It

:03:12. > :03:15.is very important. I did not report that the FBI had a warrant to

:03:16. > :03:20.intercept anything or that Trump tower was any part of it. What I

:03:21. > :03:24.reported was that the FBI obtained a warrant is targeted on all

:03:25. > :03:28.communications between two Russian banks and were, therefore, allowed

:03:29. > :03:34.to examine US persons in the context of their investigation. What the

:03:35. > :03:40.Americans call legally incidental collection. I certainly didn't

:03:41. > :03:44.report that the warrant was able to intercept or that it had location

:03:45. > :03:49.basis, for example Trump tower. I just didn't report that. The reason

:03:50. > :03:54.that matters so much is that I now believe based on the President's

:03:55. > :03:58.reaction, there may well be a wiretap act Trump Tower. If so,

:03:59. > :04:01.Donald Trump has just tweeted out evidence in an ongoing criminal case

:04:02. > :04:05.that neither I nor anybody else reported. He is right about

:04:06. > :04:09.Watergate because he will have committed obstruction of justice

:04:10. > :04:13.directly from his Twitter account. Let me come back as thank you for

:04:14. > :04:20.clarifying. Let me come back to the question. -- and thank you. We have

:04:21. > :04:25.not yet got proof that this warrant exists, do we? No and we are most

:04:26. > :04:29.unlikely to get it because it would be a heinous crime for Donald Trump

:04:30. > :04:33.to reveal its existence. In America they call it a Glomar response. I

:04:34. > :04:37.can neither confirm nor deny. That is what all American officials will

:04:38. > :04:41.have to say legally. If you are looking for proof, you won't get it

:04:42. > :04:46.until and unless a court cases brought. But that doesn't mean it

:04:47. > :04:50.doesn't exist. The BBC validated this two months after me in their

:04:51. > :04:54.reporting by the journalist Paul Wood. The Guardian, they also

:04:55. > :04:58.separately from their own sources validated the existence of the

:04:59. > :05:01.warrant. If you are in America, you would know that CNN and others are

:05:02. > :05:05.reporting that the investigation in ongoing. Let me come onto the wider

:05:06. > :05:10.point. You believe the Trump campaign including the president

:05:11. > :05:13.were complicit with the Russians during the 2016 election campaign to

:05:14. > :05:15.such an extent that Mr Trump should be impeached. What evidence did you

:05:16. > :05:25.have? That is an enormous amount of

:05:26. > :05:28.evidence. You could start with him saying, hey, Russia, if you are

:05:29. > :05:33.listening, please release all the Hillary Clinton's e-mails. That's

:05:34. > :05:36.not evidence. I think it rather is, actually. Especially if you look at

:05:37. > :05:40.some of the evidence that exists on Twitter and elsewhere of people

:05:41. > :05:44.talking directly to his social media manager, Dan should be no and

:05:45. > :05:49.telling him to do that before it happened. There is a bit out there.

:05:50. > :05:54.The BBC itself reported that in April of last year, a six agency

:05:55. > :05:57.task force, not just the FBI, but the Treasury Department, was looking

:05:58. > :06:01.at this. I believe there is an enormous amount of evidence. And

:06:02. > :06:03.then there is the steel dossier which was included in an official

:06:04. > :06:12.report of the US intelligence committee. You've also ... Just to

:06:13. > :06:16.be clear, we don't have hard evidence yet whether this warrant

:06:17. > :06:20.exists. It may or may not. There is doubt about... There are claims

:06:21. > :06:22.about whether there is evidence about Mr Trump and the Russians.

:06:23. > :06:29.That is another matter. You claimed that President Putin had Andrew

:06:30. > :06:35.Breitbart murdered to pave the way for Steve Bannon to play a key role

:06:36. > :06:40.in the Trump administration. I haven't. You said that Steve Bannon

:06:41. > :06:44.is behind bomb threats to Jewish community centres. Aren't you in

:06:45. > :06:48.danger of just peddling wild conspiracy theories? No. Festival, I

:06:49. > :06:53.haven't. No matter how many times people say this, it's not going to

:06:54. > :06:56.be true -- first of all. I said in twitter I believe that to be the

:06:57. > :07:03.case about the murder of Andrew Breitbart. You believe President

:07:04. > :07:07.Putin murdered him. I didn't! You said I reported it, but I believed

:07:08. > :07:12.it. You put it on twitter that you believed it but you don't have a

:07:13. > :07:17.shred of evidence. I do. Indeed, I know made assertions. What is the

:07:18. > :07:23.evidence that Mr Putin murdered Andrew Breitbart? I said I believe

:07:24. > :07:26.it. You may believe there are fairies at the bottom of your

:07:27. > :07:31.garden, it doesn't make it true. I may indeed. And if I say so, that's

:07:32. > :07:39.my belief. If I say I am reporting, as I did with the Fisa warrant

:07:40. > :07:45.exists, I have a basis in fact. They believe is just a belief. I know you

:07:46. > :07:52.are relatively new to journalism. Let me get the rules right. Andrew,

:07:53. > :07:56.jealousy is not your colour... If it is twitter, we don't believe it but

:07:57. > :08:00.if it is on your website, we should believe it? If I report something

:08:01. > :08:04.and I say this happened, then I am making an assertion. If I describe a

:08:05. > :08:10.belief, I am describing a belief. Subtlety may be a little difficult

:08:11. > :08:17.for you... No, no. If you want to be a journalist, beliefs have to be

:08:18. > :08:21.backed up with evidence. Really? Do you have a faith? It's not a matter

:08:22. > :08:26.of faith, maybe in your case, that President Putin murdered Andrew

:08:27. > :08:30.Breitbart. A belief and a report at two different things and no matter

:08:31. > :08:35.how often you say that they are the same, they will never be the same.

:08:36. > :08:42.You've said in today's Sunday Times here in London that you've turned

:08:43. > :08:48.into" a temporary superpower" where you "See things really clearly".

:08:49. > :08:54.Have you become delusional? No. I am describing a biological basis for

:08:55. > :08:57.ADHD, which I have. As any of your viewers who are doctors will know.

:08:58. > :09:01.It provides people with unfortunately a lot of scattered

:09:02. > :09:03.focus, they are very messy and absent-minded but when they are

:09:04. > :09:08.interested in things and they have ADHD they can have a condition which

:09:09. > :09:11.is hyper focus. You concentrate very hard on a given subject and you can

:09:12. > :09:18.see patterns and connections. That is biological. Thank you for

:09:19. > :09:23.explaining that. And for getting up early in New York. The first time

:09:24. > :09:27.ever I have interviewed a temporary superpower. Thank you. You are so

:09:28. > :09:31.lucky! You are so lucky! I don't think it's going to happen again.

:09:32. > :09:35.Please don't ask us to comment on that interview! I will not ask you,

:09:36. > :09:39.viewers will make up their own minds. Let's come back to be more

:09:40. > :09:44.mundane world of Article 50. Stop the killing!

:09:45. > :09:49.Will it get through at the government wanted it? Without the

:09:50. > :09:52.Lords amendment falling by the way that? I am sure the Lord will not

:09:53. > :09:56.try to ping-pong this back and forth. So we are at the end of this

:09:57. > :10:00.particular legislative phase. The fact that all three Brexit Cabinet

:10:01. > :10:03.ministers, number ten often don't like one of them going out on a

:10:04. > :10:07.broadcast interview on a Sunday, they've all been out and about. That

:10:08. > :10:12.suggests to me they are working on the assumption it will be triggered

:10:13. > :10:16.this week. This week. The negotiations will begin or at least

:10:17. > :10:19.the process begins. The negotiation process may be difficult, given all

:10:20. > :10:25.of the European elections. The Dutch this week. And then the French and

:10:26. > :10:28.maybe the Italians and certainly the Germans by the end of September,

:10:29. > :10:34.which is less predictable than it was. Given all that, what did you

:10:35. > :10:38.make of Anna Soubry's claim, Viacom on her part, that we may just end up

:10:39. > :10:44.crashing out in six months question -- fear on her part. It was not just

:10:45. > :10:46.that that we made that deliberately organising. I want us to get on with

:10:47. > :10:54.the deals. Everyone knows a good deal is the

:10:55. > :10:58.best option. Who knows what is going to be on the table when we finally

:10:59. > :11:03.go out? Fascinatingly, the demand for some money back, given the

:11:04. > :11:07.amount of money... Net gains and net costs in terms of us leaving for the

:11:08. > :11:14.EU. It is all to play for. That will be a possible early grounds for a

:11:15. > :11:19.confrontation between the UK and the EU. My understanding is that they

:11:20. > :11:23.expect to do a deal on reciprocal rights of EU nationals, EU nationals

:11:24. > :11:27.here, UK citizens there, quite quickly. They want to clear that up

:11:28. > :11:31.and that will be done. Then they will hit this problem that the EU

:11:32. > :11:36.will be saying you've got to agree the divorce Bill first before we

:11:37. > :11:39.talk about the free trade bill. David Davis saying quite clearly,

:11:40. > :11:44.no, they go together because of the size of the bill. It will be

:11:45. > :11:48.determined, in our part, by how good the access will be. The mutual

:11:49. > :11:52.recognition of EU residents' rights is no trouble. A huge amount of fuss

:11:53. > :11:56.is attracted to that subject but it is the easiest thing to deal with,

:11:57. > :11:59.as is free movement for tourists. Money is what will make it

:12:00. > :12:02.incredibly acrimonious. Incredibly quickly. I imagine the dominant

:12:03. > :12:06.story in the summer will be all about that. This was Anna Soubry's

:12:07. > :12:10.implication, members of the governors could strongly argue,

:12:11. > :12:13.things are so poisonous and so unpleasant at the moment, the

:12:14. > :12:18.dealers are advancing -- members of the government. Why not call it a

:12:19. > :12:22.day and go out on WTO terms while public opinion is still in that

:12:23. > :12:25.direction in that Eurosceptic direction? No buyers' remorse about

:12:26. > :12:30.last year's referendum. The longer they leave it, view more opportunity

:12:31. > :12:34.there is for some kind of public resistance and change of mind to

:12:35. > :12:38.take place. The longer believe it, the more people who voted for Brexit

:12:39. > :12:42.and people who voted Remain and think we didn't get world War three

:12:43. > :12:45.will start being quite angry with the EU for not agreeing a deal. In

:12:46. > :12:52.terms of the rights of EU nationals he and Brits abroad, by all

:12:53. > :12:55.accounts, 26 of the 27 have agreed individually. Angela Merkel is the

:12:56. > :12:59.only person who has held that up. That will be dealt with in a matter

:13:00. > :13:05.of days. The chances of a deal being done is likely but in ten seconds...

:13:06. > :13:08.It would not be a bad bet to protect your on something not happening, you

:13:09. > :13:13.might get pretty good odds? The odds are going up that a deal doesn't

:13:14. > :13:18.happen. But, as I said earlier, the House of Commons will not endorse no

:13:19. > :13:23.deal. We are either in an early election or she has to go back

:13:24. > :13:28.again. Either way, you will need us! We will be back at noon tomorrow on

:13:29. > :13:31.BBC Two ahead of what looks like being a big week in politics. We

:13:32. > :13:34.will be back here same time, same place.

:13:35. > :14:38.Remember, if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.

:14:39. > :14:46.They're calling it an entertainment extravaganza

:14:47. > :14:50.audience fun and frolics and outrageous shenanigans.

:14:51. > :14:54.And I don't even know what those HONK words mean.