:00:36. > :00:39.It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:40. > :00:42.Theresa May unveils plans to build many more affordable homes
:00:43. > :00:45.in England, but with no price tag, timetable or building targets -
:00:46. > :00:52.Labour takes aim at the City with what it calls a Robin Hood Tax
:00:53. > :00:54.to fund public services, but will traders just
:00:55. > :00:58.Don't look at the polls - Jeremy Corbyn, at least,
:00:59. > :01:01.insists he can win this election - so which way will
:01:02. > :01:05.We'll hear from a focus group in Leeds.
:01:06. > :01:09.Has the bubble burst or can Ukip rise again?
:01:10. > :01:14.We'll assess the post-Brexit battle for votes in Blackpool.
:01:15. > :01:16.and here, what the parties are saying about tackling the air
:01:17. > :01:24.pollution problem in London. And with me, our own scientifically
:01:25. > :01:28.selected focus group of political pundits -
:01:29. > :01:30.they're not so much undecided as clueless -
:01:31. > :01:32.Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott They'll be tweeting
:01:33. > :01:39.throughout the programme. So, we've got two new
:01:40. > :01:41.policies this morning. Labour say they will introduce
:01:42. > :01:43.a financial transaction tax if they win the general election
:01:44. > :01:46.and what they're calling "the biggest crackdown on tax
:01:47. > :01:48.avoidance in the country's history". The Conservatives say they'll work
:01:49. > :01:50.with local authorities in England to build council houses
:01:51. > :01:53.with the right to buy. Theresa May says the policy
:01:54. > :01:55."will help thousands of people get on the first rung
:01:56. > :02:08.of the housing ladder". Steve, what do you make of them? I
:02:09. > :02:12.have been conditioned after doing tax and spend debates in
:02:13. > :02:16.pre-election periods for many decades to treat policy is not as
:02:17. > :02:20.literal but as arguments. In other words if you look back to 2015 the
:02:21. > :02:25.Tory plan to wipe out the deficit was never going to happen and yet it
:02:26. > :02:29.framed and large event. In that sense the Robin Hood tax is a
:02:30. > :02:34.sensible move for Labour to make at this point because it is part of a
:02:35. > :02:37.narrative of reconfiguring taxation to be fair. Treating it as an
:02:38. > :02:45.argument rather than something that would happen in day one of Labour
:02:46. > :02:47.government is sensible. In terms of building houses Theresa May said
:02:48. > :02:50.right from the beginning when she was in Number Ten that there is a
:02:51. > :02:54.housing deficit in this country rather than the economic deficit
:02:55. > :02:59.George Osborne was focusing on, and this is an example of trying to get
:03:00. > :03:03.house-building going. It seems entirely sensible, not sure how it
:03:04. > :03:08.works with right to buy but again as framing of a 90 minute it makes
:03:09. > :03:16.sense. I disagree with Steve on one front which is how sensible Theresa
:03:17. > :03:20.May's policy is on the housing announcement. I think more broadly
:03:21. > :03:23.these two announcements have something in common which is that
:03:24. > :03:30.over the next 24 hours both will probably unravel in different ways.
:03:31. > :03:34.Ye of little faith! The Mayor of London has already said he doesn't
:03:35. > :03:40.agree with this, and when people see the actual impact of what looks like
:03:41. > :03:45.a populist tax will very potentially affect people's pensions, it might
:03:46. > :03:49.become a lot less popular. On the Tory housing plans, I think it is
:03:50. > :03:54.difficult to imagine how they are going to implement this huge, what
:03:55. > :03:59.looks like a huge land and property grab. Through compulsory purchase
:04:00. > :04:03.orders, which are not a simple instrument. They say they will
:04:04. > :04:07.change the law but really the idea of paying people below the market
:04:08. > :04:12.value for their assets is not something I can see sitting easily
:04:13. > :04:19.with Tory backbenchers or the Tories in the House of Lords. Tom. Both
:04:20. > :04:23.would appear superficially to be appealing to traditional left and
:04:24. > :04:30.traditional right bases. What is more Tory than right to buy, then
:04:31. > :04:37.councils sell on these houses, and Labour slapping a massive tax on the
:04:38. > :04:40.city. The Tories' plan, I would say look a bit deeper and all of the
:04:41. > :04:45.Tory narrative from the last six years which hasn't worked well is
:04:46. > :04:49.talking about the private sector increasing supply in the market. Now
:04:50. > :04:57.Mrs May is talking about the role for the state after all so this is
:04:58. > :05:01.the shift creeping in. On the Labour transaction tax, one of the most
:05:02. > :05:08.interesting things I heard in days was from Paul Mason, former BBC
:05:09. > :05:11.correspondent, now a cog in Easter extreme. On Newsnight he said don't
:05:12. > :05:16.worry about whether the Labour manifesto will add up, I'm promising
:05:17. > :05:23.it will, the bigger Tory attack line should be what on earth will be the
:05:24. > :05:29.macroeconomic effect of taking so much tax out of the system. Very
:05:30. > :05:31.well, we shall see. At least we have some policies to talk about.
:05:32. > :05:33.Now, on Tuesday Labour will launch its manifesto.
:05:34. > :05:36.But we've already got a pretty good idea of what's in it -
:05:37. > :05:39.that's because most of its contents were leaked to the media
:05:40. > :05:47.Labour has a variety of spending pledges including an extra
:05:48. > :05:50.?6 billion a year for the NHS, an additional ?8 billion for social
:05:51. > :05:52.care over the lifetime of the next parliament,
:05:53. > :05:54.as well as a ?250 billion in infrastructure over
:05:55. > :06:02.The party will support the renewal of the Trident submarine system,
:06:03. > :06:03.although any Prime Minister should be extremely cautious
:06:04. > :06:06.about its use, and the party will hold a strategic defence
:06:07. > :06:09.and security review immediately after the election.
:06:10. > :06:11.In terms of immigration, Labour will seek "reasonable
:06:12. > :06:13.management of migration", but it will not make "false
:06:14. > :06:20.Elsewhere, university tuition fees will be abolished,
:06:21. > :06:22.and the public sector pay cap, which limits pay rises
:06:23. > :06:26.for public sector workers to 1%, will be scrapped.
:06:27. > :06:29.The party also aims to renationalise the railways, the Royal Mail
:06:30. > :06:36.and the National Grid, as well as creating at least one
:06:37. > :06:41.A senior Labour backbencher described it to the Sunday Politics
:06:42. > :06:44.as a manifesto for a leadership who don't "give a toss
:06:45. > :06:46.about the wider public", and several other Labour candidates
:06:47. > :06:48.told us they thought it had been deliberately
:06:49. > :06:52.leaked by the leadership, with one suggesting
:06:53. > :06:54.the leak was intended to "bounce the National Executive"
:06:55. > :06:57.And we're joined now from Salford by the Shadow Business Secretary,
:06:58. > :07:06.Welcome to the programme. The draft manifesto proposed to renationalise
:07:07. > :07:11.the number of industry. You will wait for the franchises to run out
:07:12. > :07:15.rather than buy them out at the moment so can you confirm the
:07:16. > :07:19.railways will not be wholly nationalised until 2030, after three
:07:20. > :07:26.Labour governments, and Jeremy Corbyn will be 80? I'm not going to
:07:27. > :07:32.comment on leaks, you will just have to be patient and wait to see what
:07:33. > :07:36.is in our manifesto. But you have already announced you will
:07:37. > :07:41.nationalise the railways, so tell me about it. We have discussed taking
:07:42. > :07:45.the franchises into public ownership as they expire, however the detail
:07:46. > :07:50.will be set out in the manifesto so I'm not prepared to go into detail
:07:51. > :07:54.until that policy is formally laid out on Tuesday. That doesn't sound
:07:55. > :08:01.very hopeful but let's carry on. You will also nationalise the National
:08:02. > :08:06.Grid, it has a market capitalisation of ?40 billion, why do you want to
:08:07. > :08:11.nationalise that? Again, I'm not going to speculate on leaks, you
:08:12. > :08:17.will just have to be patient. But you said you will nationalise the
:08:18. > :08:21.National Grid so tell's Y. The leaks have suggested but you will just
:08:22. > :08:26.have to wait and see what the final manifesto states on that one. So is
:08:27. > :08:30.it a waste of time me asking you how you will pay for something that
:08:31. > :08:36.costs 40 billion? Be patient, just couple of days to go, but what I
:08:37. > :08:40.would say is there is growing pressure from the public to reform
:08:41. > :08:43.the utilities sector. The Competition and Markets Authority
:08:44. > :08:49.stated in 2015 that bill payers were paying over till debt -- ?2 billion
:08:50. > :08:55.in excess of what they should be paying so there is a clear need for
:08:56. > :08:59.reform. The bills we get are from the energy companies, you are not
:09:00. > :09:02.going to nationalise them, you are going to nationalise the
:09:03. > :09:07.distribution company and I wondered what is the case for nationalising
:09:08. > :09:12.the distribution company? As I said, our full plans will be set out on
:09:13. > :09:15.Tuesday. In relation to the big six energy companies, we know in recent
:09:16. > :09:23.years they have been overcharging customers... There's no point in
:09:24. > :09:29.answering questions I am not asking. I am asking what is the case for
:09:30. > :09:32.nationalising the National Grid? There is a case for reforming the
:09:33. > :09:37.energy sector as a whole and that looks at the activities of the big
:09:38. > :09:42.six companies and it will look at other aspects too. You will have to
:09:43. > :09:49.be patient and wait until Tuesday. What about the Royal Mail? Again,
:09:50. > :09:53.you will have to wait until Tuesday. Why can't you just be honest with
:09:54. > :10:00.the British voter? We know you are going to do this and you have a duty
:10:01. > :10:06.to explain. I'm not even arguing whether it is right or wrong. The
:10:07. > :10:10.Royal Mail was sold off and we know it was sold under value and British
:10:11. > :10:14.taxpayers have a reason to feel aggrieved about that. There is a
:10:15. > :10:18.long-term strategy that would ensure the Royal Mail was classified as a
:10:19. > :10:23.key piece of infrastructure but the details of that will be set out in
:10:24. > :10:26.our manifesto because we want to ensure businesses and households
:10:27. > :10:31.ensure the best quality of service when it comes to their postal
:10:32. > :10:36.providers. You plan to borrow an extra 25 billion per year, John
:10:37. > :10:40.McDonnell has already announced this, on public investment, on top
:10:41. > :10:46.of the around 50 billion already being planned for investment. You
:10:47. > :10:53.will borrow it all so that means, if you can confirm, that many years
:10:54. > :11:00.after the crash by 2021, Labour government would still be borrowing
:11:01. > :11:06.75 billion a year. Is that correct? We have set out ?250 billion of
:11:07. > :11:10.capital investment, and ?250 billion for a national investment bank. Our
:11:11. > :11:14.financial and fiscal rules dictate we will leave the Government in a
:11:15. > :11:17.state of less debt than we found it at the start of the parliament so we
:11:18. > :11:24.won't increase the national debt at the end of our Parliamentary term.
:11:25. > :11:28.How can you do that if by 2021 you will still be borrowing around 75
:11:29. > :11:35.billion a year, which is more than we borrow at the moment? The 500
:11:36. > :11:39.billion figure is set out over a period of ten years, it's a figure
:11:40. > :11:42.that has been suggested by Peter Helm from Oxford University as a
:11:43. > :11:46.figure that is necessary to bring us in line with other industrial
:11:47. > :11:55.competitors. Similar figures have been suggested by groups such as the
:11:56. > :11:59.CBI. By the way I have not included all 500 billion, just the 250
:12:00. > :12:04.billion on public spending, not the extra money. You talk about the
:12:05. > :12:08.fiscal rules. The draft manifesto said you will leave debt as a
:12:09. > :12:15.proportion of trend GDP law at the end of each parliament, you have
:12:16. > :12:19.just said a version of that. What is trend GDP? In clear terms we will
:12:20. > :12:23.ensure the debt we acquire will be reduced by the end of the
:12:24. > :12:31.parliament. We won't leave the Government finances in a worse state
:12:32. > :12:35.than we found them. OK, but what is trend GDP? Our rule is we will
:12:36. > :12:39.ensure public sector net debt is less than we found it when we came
:12:40. > :12:47.to power in Government on June the 8th. But that is not what your draft
:12:48. > :12:50.manifesto says. I'm not going to comment on leaks, you are just going
:12:51. > :12:55.to have to wait until Tuesday to look at the fine detail and perhaps
:12:56. > :12:59.we will have another chat then. You have published your plans for
:13:00. > :13:03.corporation tax and you will increase it by a third and your
:13:04. > :13:08.predictions assumed that will get an extra 20 billion a year by the end
:13:09. > :13:12.of the parliament. But that assumes the companies don't change their
:13:13. > :13:17.behaviour, that they move money around, they leave the country or
:13:18. > :13:23.they generate smaller profits. Is that realistic? You are right to
:13:24. > :13:26.make that point and you will see when we set out our policies and
:13:27. > :13:32.costings in the manifesto that we haven't spent all of the tax take.
:13:33. > :13:34.We have allowed for different differentials and potential changes
:13:35. > :13:39.in market activity because that would be approved and direction to
:13:40. > :13:47.take. But corporation tax is allowed to be cut in France and the United
:13:48. > :13:50.States, it's only 12.5% in Dublin. Many companies based in Britain are
:13:51. > :13:55.already wondering whether they should relocate because of Brexit,
:13:56. > :14:00.if you increase this tax by a third couldn't that clinch it for a number
:14:01. > :14:06.of them? No, we will still be one of the lowest corporation tax rate in
:14:07. > :14:10.the G7. Let's look at what's important for business. Cutting
:14:11. > :14:14.corporation tax in itself doesn't improve productivity, or business
:14:15. > :14:17.investment and there's no suggestion cutting corporation tax in recent
:14:18. > :14:24.years has achieved that. Businesses need an investment in tools in
:14:25. > :14:28.things they need to thrive and prosper, they also need to reduce
:14:29. > :14:33.the burden at the lower end of the tax scale, before we get to the
:14:34. > :14:40.Prophet stage. One key example is business rates. We have made the
:14:41. > :14:43.proposal to government to in -- exclude machinery so businesses can
:14:44. > :14:50.invest and grow operations in the future but the Government refused.
:14:51. > :15:00.Corporation tax has been cut since 2010. When it was 28% it brought in
:15:01. > :15:07.?43 billion a year. Now it is down to 20%, it brought in ?55 billion a
:15:08. > :15:13.year. By cutting it in the last year, it brought in 21% more, so
:15:14. > :15:17.what is the problem? It might have brought in more money, but has it
:15:18. > :15:23.increased business investment in the long term. It is not just about
:15:24. > :15:27.cutting corporation tax, but it is on the ability of businesses to
:15:28. > :15:33.thrive and prosper. Business investment in the UK is below are
:15:34. > :15:40.industrial competitors. Wages are stagnating which doesn't indicate
:15:41. > :15:44.businesses are not doing well. Let me get it right, you are arguing if
:15:45. > :15:51.we increase business tax by a third, that will increase investment? I am
:15:52. > :15:59.not saying that. You just did. Know I didn't, I said reducing business
:16:00. > :16:03.tax isn't enough, you have to invest in the things businesses need to
:16:04. > :16:14.thrive and prosper. You have also got to lessen the burden on
:16:15. > :16:19.business. You have announced a financial transaction tax. Your own
:16:20. > :16:24.labour Mayor of London said he has vowed to fight it. He said I do not
:16:25. > :16:29.want a unilateral tax on business in our city, so why are you proceeding
:16:30. > :16:33.with it? This isn't a new initiative, there is a growing
:16:34. > :16:37.global pressure to make sure we have fairness in the financial sector.
:16:38. > :16:43.Ordinary British people are paying for our banking crisis they didn't
:16:44. > :16:48.cause. Another important point, stamp duty reserve tax was brought
:16:49. > :16:52.in in the 1600 and there have been little reforms. The sector has
:16:53. > :16:57.changed and we have do provide changes to the system for that
:16:58. > :17:02.change. High-frequency trading where we have a state of affairs where a
:17:03. > :17:06.lot of shares are traded on computers within milliseconds. We
:17:07. > :17:13.need a tax system that keeps up with that. What happens if they move the
:17:14. > :17:18.computers to another country? Emily Thornaby said this morning, other
:17:19. > :17:21.countries had already introduced a financial transaction tax, what
:17:22. > :17:29.other countries have done that? There are ten countries looking at
:17:30. > :17:36.introducing a transaction tax. Which ones have done it so far? They will
:17:37. > :17:41.be later announcing a final package, going through the finer detail at
:17:42. > :17:45.the moment. But the European Commission tried to get this done in
:17:46. > :17:50.2011 and it still hasn't happened in any of these countries. But you are
:17:51. > :17:55.going to go ahead unilaterally and risk these businesses, which
:17:56. > :17:59.generate a lot of money, moving to other jurisdictions. There is not a
:18:00. > :18:10.significant risk of that happening. The stamp duty reserve tax is levied
:18:11. > :18:15.at either where the person or company is domiciled or where the
:18:16. > :18:20.instrument is issued rather than worth the transaction takes place.
:18:21. > :18:23.This tax in itself is not enough to make people leave this country in
:18:24. > :18:28.terms of financial services because there is more to keep these
:18:29. > :18:32.businesses here in terms of the investment we are making, the
:18:33. > :18:36.economy that Labour will build, in terms of productivity improvement we
:18:37. > :18:40.will see. Thank you very much, Rebecca Long-Bailey.
:18:41. > :18:46.And listening to that was the Home Office Minister, Brandon Lewis.
:18:47. > :18:52.Over the years, you have got corporation tax by 20%, it is lower
:18:53. > :18:59.than international standards, so why are so many global companies who
:19:00. > :19:04.make money out of Great Britain, still not paying 20%? It is one of
:19:05. > :19:07.the problems with the point Labour were making and Rebecca could not
:19:08. > :19:13.answer, these companies can move around the world. One of the
:19:14. > :19:17.important things is having a low tax economy but these businesses, it
:19:18. > :19:22.encourages them to come at a rate they are prepared to pay. People may
:19:23. > :19:28.say they are right, if they were paying 19, 20% incorporation tax.
:19:29. > :19:37.But they are not. Google runs a multi-million pound corporation and
:19:38. > :19:41.did not pay anywhere near 20%. There are companies that are trading
:19:42. > :19:49.internationally and that is why we have to get this work done with our
:19:50. > :19:53.partners around the world. Has there been an improvement? It is more than
:19:54. > :19:57.they were paying before. Whether it is Google or any other company,
:19:58. > :20:03.alongside them being here, apart from the tax they pay, it is the
:20:04. > :20:07.people they employ. The deal was, if you cut the business tax, the
:20:08. > :20:12.corporation tax on profits, we would get more companies coming here and
:20:13. > :20:16.more companies paying their tax. It seems it doesn't matter how low, a
:20:17. > :20:23.number of companies just pay a derisory amount and you haven't been
:20:24. > :20:25.able to change that. As you outlined, the income taken from the
:20:26. > :20:33.changing corporation tax has gone up. That is from established British
:20:34. > :20:36.companies, not from these international companies. It is
:20:37. > :20:40.because more companies are coming here and paying tax. That is a good
:20:41. > :20:46.thing. There is always more to do and that is why we want to crack
:20:47. > :20:50.down. In the last few weeks in the Finnish Parliament, Labour refused
:20:51. > :20:56.to put to another ?8.7 billion of tax take we could have got by
:20:57. > :21:01.cracking down further. You claim to have made great progress on cracking
:21:02. > :21:06.down on people and companies to pay the tax they should. But the tax gap
:21:07. > :21:12.is the difference between what HMRC takes in and what it should take in.
:21:13. > :21:18.It has barely moved in five years, so where is the progress? He have
:21:19. > :21:22.brought in 150 billion more where we have cracked down on those tax
:21:23. > :21:32.schemes. The gap is still the same as it was five years ago. It's gone
:21:33. > :21:34.from 6.8, 26.5. It has gone down. The Prime Minister and the
:21:35. > :21:39.Chancellor said they want to continue work on to get more money
:21:40. > :21:45.on these companies while still having a competitive rate to
:21:46. > :21:50.encourage these companies. While big business and the wealthy continue to
:21:51. > :21:53.prosper, the Office for Budget Responsibility tell us those on
:21:54. > :21:59.average earnings in this country will be earning less in real terms
:22:00. > :22:05.by 2021 than they did in 2008. How can that be fair? I don't see it
:22:06. > :22:09.that way. I haven't seen the figures you have got. What I can say to you,
:22:10. > :22:15.Andrew, we have made sure the minimum wage has gone up, the actual
:22:16. > :22:24.income tax people pay has gone down. So in their pocket, real terms,
:22:25. > :22:26.people have more money. You are the self-styled party of work. We keep
:22:27. > :22:30.emphasising work. Under your government you can work for 13 years
:22:31. > :22:37.and still not earn any more at the end of it, and you did at the start.
:22:38. > :22:42.Where is the reward for effort in that? I have not seen those figures.
:22:43. > :22:49.There are 2.8 million more people, more jobs in economy than there was.
:22:50. > :22:52.1000 jobs every day and people are working and developing through their
:22:53. > :22:56.careers. This is what I thought was odd in what Rebecca was saying,
:22:57. > :23:01.investing in people is what the apprenticeship levy is about,
:23:02. > :23:06.companies are investing their works force to take more opportunities
:23:07. > :23:09.that there. We are talking about fairness, politicians talk about
:23:10. > :23:14.hard-working people and we know the average earnings are no higher than
:23:15. > :23:19.they were in 2008. We know the pay and bonuses of senior executives
:23:20. > :23:22.have continued to grow and the Institute for Fiscal Studies has
:23:23. > :23:28.shown 3 million of the poorest households will lose an average of
:23:29. > :23:34.?2500 a year in the next Parliament, benefits frozen, further sanctions
:23:35. > :23:38.kick in. 3 million of the poorest losing 2500. Under the Tories, one
:23:39. > :23:44.law for the rich and another for the poor. It is quite wrong. First of
:23:45. > :23:49.all, we have got to be fair to the taxpayer who is funding the welfare
:23:50. > :23:55.and benefit system. Which is why the welfare was right. Get more people
:23:56. > :24:02.in work and then it is important to get more people upscaling. As that
:24:03. > :24:07.allowance rises, people have more of the money they earn in their pocket
:24:08. > :24:13.to be able to use in the economy. People will be worse off. 2500,
:24:14. > :24:19.among the poorest already. They will have more money in their pocket as
:24:20. > :24:25.we increase the allowance before people pay tax. We have seen
:24:26. > :24:29.millions of people coming out of tax altogether. The reason I ask these
:24:30. > :24:34.questions, you and the Prime Minister go on and on about the just
:24:35. > :24:38.about managing classes. I am talking about the just about managing and
:24:39. > :24:42.below that. It is all talk, you haven't done anything for them. We
:24:43. > :24:47.have made sure they have an increasing minimum wage, it has gone
:24:48. > :24:54.up more under us than any other previous government. Their wages
:24:55. > :24:58.will be still lower in real terms. Let me come on to this plan for
:24:59. > :25:03.housing. We have announced a new plan to increase affordable housing,
:25:04. > :25:07.social housing, some council housing and social housing built by the
:25:08. > :25:11.associations. How much money is behind this? It is part of the 1.4
:25:12. > :25:19.billion announced in the Autumn Statement. How many homes will you
:25:20. > :25:22.get for 1.4 billion? That depends on the negotiations with local
:25:23. > :25:29.authorities. It is local authorities, who know the area best.
:25:30. > :25:33.I will not put a number on that. 1.4 billion, if you price the house at
:25:34. > :25:39.100,000, which is very low, particularly for the South, back at
:25:40. > :25:44.you 14,000 new homes. That is it. What we have seen before, how the
:25:45. > :25:48.local government can leveraged to build thousands more homes. That is
:25:49. > :25:52.what we want to see across the country. It is not just about the
:25:53. > :25:55.money, for a lot of local authorities it is about the
:25:56. > :26:01.expertise and knowledge on how to do this. That is why support from the
:26:02. > :26:07.housing communities minister will help. What is the timescale, how
:26:08. > :26:12.many more affordable homes will be built? I will not put a number on
:26:13. > :26:17.it. You announced it today, so you cannot tell me how many more or what
:26:18. > :26:21.the target is? It is a matter of working with the local authorities
:26:22. > :26:24.who know what their local needs are, what land they have got available.
:26:25. > :26:29.What we saw through the local elections with the Metro mayors,
:26:30. > :26:32.they want to deliver in their areas, whether it is the West of England,
:26:33. > :26:37.the north-east, Liverpool, Manchester and we want to work with
:26:38. > :26:41.them. You have said variations of this for the past seven years and I
:26:42. > :26:47.want some credibility. When you cannot tell us how much money, what
:26:48. > :26:50.the target and timescale is, and this government, under which
:26:51. > :26:56.affordable house building has fallen to a 24 year low. 1.2 million
:26:57. > :27:02.families are on waiting lists for social housing to rent. That is your
:27:03. > :27:06.record. Why should we believe a word you say? This is different to what
:27:07. > :27:11.we have been doing over the last two years. We want to develop and have a
:27:12. > :27:18.strong and stable economy that can sustain that 1.4 billion homes. This
:27:19. > :27:24.is important. In 2010, we inherited the lowest level of house building,
:27:25. > :27:29.75,000 new homes. That is about 189,000 over the last four years.
:27:30. > :27:33.That is a big step forward after the crash, getting people back into the
:27:34. > :27:44.industry. More first-time buyers onto the market. Final question, in
:27:45. > :27:49.2010, 2011, your first year in government, there were 60,000
:27:50. > :27:57.affordable homes built. May not be enough, but last day it was 30 2000.
:27:58. > :28:04.So why should we trust anything you say about this? On housing, we have
:28:05. > :28:10.delivered. We have delivered more social housing. Double what Labour
:28:11. > :28:14.did in 13 years, in just five years. This is what this policy is about,
:28:15. > :28:15.working with local authorities to deliver more homes to people in
:28:16. > :28:19.their local areas. Thank you. Now, they have a deficit
:28:20. > :28:22.of between 15 and 20% in the polls, but Jeremy Corbyn and those
:28:23. > :28:25.around him insist Labour can win. If the polls are right they've got
:28:26. > :28:28.three and half weeks to change voters' minds and persuade those
:28:29. > :28:30.fabled undecided voters We enlisted the polling organisation
:28:31. > :28:35.YouGov to help us find out how the performance of party leaders
:28:36. > :28:37.will affect behaviour Leeds, a city of three quarters
:28:38. > :28:47.of a million people, eight Parliamentary seats and home
:28:48. > :28:52.to our very own focus group. Our panel was recruited
:28:53. > :28:54.from a variety of backgrounds and the majority say they haven't
:28:55. > :28:58.decided who to vote for yet. Watching behind the glass,
:28:59. > :29:00.two experts on different sides Giles Cunningham, who headed up
:29:01. > :29:07.political press at Downing Street under David Cameron
:29:08. > :29:14.and Aaron Bastani, Corbin supporter, under David Cameron
:29:15. > :29:16.and Aaron Bastani, Corbyn supporter, I think Theresa May sees herself
:29:17. > :29:20.as a pound shop Thatcher. Milliband's policies but when it
:29:21. > :29:40.came about who you want,
:29:41. > :29:44.if you wake up on maybe a 2015, We found in a couple of focus
:29:45. > :29:48.groups, people saying we'd be quite relieved,
:29:49. > :29:50.even though some of those same people have been saying we quite
:29:51. > :29:53.like the Labour policies. I think the fact that Corbyn's
:29:54. > :29:57.going so hard on his values, this is a really progressive
:29:58. > :29:59.manifesto, they live But I think that's a new challenge,
:30:00. > :30:03.that wasn't there in 2015. Is there anyone here that
:30:04. > :30:05.you don't recognise? After a little warm up,
:30:06. > :30:07.the first exercise, recognising I think it's nice to have a strong
:30:08. > :30:14.woman in politics, I do. But I've got to say,
:30:15. > :30:16.when she comes on the news, I kind of do think,
:30:17. > :30:19.here we go again. Tell me about Tim Farron, what
:30:20. > :30:21.are your impressions of Tim Farron? It isn't going to do anything,
:30:22. > :30:26.it isn't going to change anything. You'll be surprised to hear it's
:30:27. > :30:35.actually the Greens. Strong and stable leadership
:30:36. > :30:47.in the national interest. Yes, Team May, it's
:30:48. > :30:52.the British equivalent of make What do we think about this one
:30:53. > :31:02.for the many and not the few? It's not quite as bad
:31:03. > :31:04.as strong and stable, but it will probably get
:31:05. > :31:07.on our nerves after a while. We must seize that chance today
:31:08. > :31:17.and every day until June the 8th. But that's not quite my
:31:18. > :31:25.question, my question is, if you are Prime Minister,
:31:26. > :31:27.we will leave, come hell or high water, whatever is on the table
:31:28. > :31:31.at the end of the negotiations? If we win the election,
:31:32. > :31:33.we'll get a good deal with Europe. Assertive and in control
:31:34. > :31:35.and he felt comfortable But the second one, I thought
:31:36. > :31:40.he was very hesitant. I thought he was kind of,
:31:41. > :31:49.hovering around, skirting around and that's the second
:31:50. > :31:52.time I've seen a similar interview with the question
:31:53. > :31:54.being asked regarding Brexit. I don't think I'd have
:31:55. > :31:56.any confidence with him You think you are going up
:31:57. > :32:00.against some quite strong people, how are you going to stand
:32:01. > :32:02.up for us? When you are in negotiations,
:32:03. > :32:07.you need to be tough. And actually is right
:32:08. > :32:09.to be tough sometimes, particularly when you are doing
:32:10. > :32:11.something for the country. There's a reason for talking
:32:12. > :32:13.about strong and stable leadership. It's about the future
:32:14. > :32:15.of the country, it's It's just that people kind of listen
:32:16. > :32:20.to that kind of thing and think Both on The One Show
:32:21. > :32:25.and in the news. She attracts the public better
:32:26. > :32:31.than what Corbyn does. She didn't answer the question
:32:32. > :32:34.in a more articular way than Corbyn Imagine that Theresa
:32:35. > :32:40.May is an animal. So, in your minds,
:32:41. > :32:43.what animal is coming to mind I've done a Pekinese because I think
:32:44. > :32:57.she's all bark and no bite. Alpaca because she's
:32:58. > :33:04.superior looking and woolly I don't think his policies
:33:05. > :33:19.are for the modern, real world. A mouse because they are weak
:33:20. > :33:23.and they can be easily bullied, but also they can catch
:33:24. > :33:25.you by surprise if you're What do you take away
:33:26. > :33:33.from what you saw then, and what message would you send back
:33:34. > :33:36.to the Tories now? I think what came over is people see
:33:37. > :33:39.Theresa May as a strong politician, not everyone likes her,
:33:40. > :33:42.but you don't need to be liked to be elected,
:33:43. > :33:44.because ultimately it's about who do you trust with your future
:33:45. > :33:46.and your security. I think what I also take out
:33:47. > :33:49.of that focus group, was it was a group of floating
:33:50. > :33:52.voters, there was no huge appetite for the Lib Dems and there was no
:33:53. > :33:55.huge appetite for Ukip. So my messaged back to CCHQ
:33:56. > :33:58.would be stick to the plan. I thought the response
:33:59. > :34:01.to the manifesto was excellent. It's clear that people aren't
:34:02. > :34:03.particularly keen on Theresa May, There are some associations with her
:34:04. > :34:08.about strength and stability, which is exactly what the Tory party
:34:09. > :34:12.want of course, but they are not positive and nobody thinks
:34:13. > :34:13.that she has a vision So, what I'd say the Jeremy Corbyn,
:34:14. > :34:20.what I'd say to the Labour Party is, they need to really emphasise
:34:21. > :34:22.the manifesto in Jeremy Corbyn himself has to perform
:34:23. > :34:28.out of his skin and I think he has to reemphasise those
:34:29. > :34:31.characteristics which may be have come to the fore may be
:34:32. > :34:33.over the last 12 months, resilience, strength and the fact
:34:34. > :34:36.that he's come this far, why not take that final step and go
:34:37. > :34:38.into ten Downing Street? We're joined now by the American
:34:39. > :34:46.political consultant For the sake of this discussion,
:34:47. > :34:53.assume the polls at the moment are broadly right, is there any hope for
:34:54. > :34:59.Mr Corbyn in the undecided voters? Know, and this is a very serious
:35:00. > :35:02.collection with serious consequences to who wins. Nobody cares whether
:35:03. > :35:07.you can draw and what animal they represent, they want to know where
:35:08. > :35:11.they stand, and I felt that was frivolous. I come to Britain to
:35:12. > :35:16.watch elections because I learned from here. Your elections are more
:35:17. > :35:20.substantial, more serious, more policy and less about personality
:35:21. > :35:25.and that peace was only about personality. That's partly because
:35:26. > :35:35.Mrs May has decided to make this a presidential election. You can see
:35:36. > :35:42.on the posters it is all Team May. I agree with that, and in her language
:35:43. > :35:46.she says not everyone benefits from a Conservative government, I don't
:35:47. > :35:51.see how using anything Republicans have used in the past. In fact her
:35:52. > :35:56.campaign is more of a centrist Democrats but it is a smart strategy
:35:57. > :36:01.because it pushes Corbyn further to the left. Of course you said Hillary
:36:02. > :36:06.Clinton have won. On election night the polling was so bad in America,
:36:07. > :36:12.the exit polls that were done, the BBC told America she had won. No, I
:36:13. > :36:20.was anchoring the programme that night, I ignored your tweet. The BBC
:36:21. > :36:24.had the same numbers. Yes, but we did not say she had won, I can
:36:25. > :36:30.assure you of that. Because of people like you we thought she had
:36:31. > :36:37.but we didn't broadcast it. That was a smart approach. My point is other
:36:38. > :36:42.than teasing you, maybe there is hope for Jeremy Corbyn. I think you
:36:43. > :36:47.will have one of the lowest turnout in modern history and I think Labour
:36:48. > :36:51.will fall to one of the lowest percentages, not percentage of
:36:52. > :36:55.number of seats they have had, and this will be a matter of
:36:56. > :37:00.soul-searching for both political parties. What you do with a sizeable
:37:01. > :37:03.majority, and she has a responsibility to tell the British
:37:04. > :37:09.people exactly what happens as she moves forward. He and Labour will
:37:10. > :37:14.have to take a look at whether they still represent a significant slice
:37:15. > :37:19.of the British population. Do you see a realignment in British
:37:20. > :37:23.politics taking place? I see a crumbling of the left and yet there
:37:24. > :37:27.is still a significant percentage of the British population that once
:37:28. > :37:36.someone who is centre-left. And they like a lot of Mr Corbyn's policies.
:37:37. > :37:39.I'm listening to Michael foot. I went to school here in the 1980s and
:37:40. > :37:42.I feel like I'm watching the Labour Party of 35 years ago, in a
:37:43. > :37:48.population that wants to focus on the future, not the past. Thank you.
:37:49. > :37:50.It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
:37:51. > :37:53.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now
:37:54. > :38:03.Coming up here in 20 minutes, the Week Ahead.
:38:04. > :38:08.Coming up in the North West: Is the bubble about to burst
:38:09. > :38:19.Ukip polled more than 5000 votes in both Blackpool seats two years
:38:20. > :38:23.ago but is the party's purple patch now over?
:38:24. > :38:26.Well, they might like to be beside the seaside, but this
:38:27. > :38:28.week's guests are stuck in the studio with me.
:38:29. > :38:30.Julie Cooper is the Labour candidate for Burnley,
:38:31. > :38:33.Mark Menzies the Conservative contesting Fylde and John Bickley
:38:34. > :38:38.is standing for Ukip in Eddisbury in Cheshire.
:38:39. > :38:40.So, trusts in all of your patches - Blackpool, East Lancashire
:38:41. > :38:43.and Cheshire and Wirral - were affected by this
:38:44. > :38:51.Another NHS crisis that could have been prevented by better funding?
:38:52. > :38:58.This is a crisis that has affected 150 countries around the world, some
:38:59. > :39:03.of the biggest companies, FedEx, Nissan, this is the act of
:39:04. > :39:06.terrorists and extortionists. The government setting up the national
:39:07. > :39:10.cyber Security Centre anticipated attacks like this and put money into
:39:11. > :39:13.it but what we need to do is ensure we cannot be complacent and we need
:39:14. > :39:17.to be vigilant because there are people out there who want to disrupt
:39:18. > :39:22.our way of life and we cannot allow that to happen. Would Labour have
:39:23. > :39:26.prevented this? Labour would have taken the advice over 12 months ago.
:39:27. > :39:30.The systems need upgrading desperately. We could have avoided
:39:31. > :39:36.this chaos. It has put patients record and treatment at risk. What
:39:37. > :39:40.is your take on this John Bickley? The NHS does not have enough money
:39:41. > :39:43.because Labour gave it all away. I guarantee now there will be no
:39:44. > :39:52.manager sacked over this. The managers in the public service,
:39:53. > :39:59.particularly at -- the NHS, will not be sacked, they earn over ?100,000,
:40:00. > :40:03.it's not good enough. Examples over and over again, this is the latest,
:40:04. > :40:07.this is an incident that has been waiting to happen. We were told the
:40:08. > :40:11.money for this was pulled by the government. I don't know where you
:40:12. > :40:16.got that from because ?50 million has gone into protect the NHS. The
:40:17. > :40:22.government has put in ?1.5 billion as part of this National cyber
:40:23. > :40:26.Security strategy said Gutman has anticipated, acted on and we are
:40:27. > :40:31.doing coming. We're not doing it to grab votes. -- so this and has
:40:32. > :40:35.anticipated. It is sad that the Labour Party is trying to weaponised
:40:36. > :40:41.the NHS to get votes. Is it not a shame that we are closing the gate
:40:42. > :40:46.after the horse has bolted? Promise of money tomorrow for systems in the
:40:47. > :40:48.NHS. If the system had been put in place 12 months ago when the advice
:40:49. > :40:52.was given, this could have been avoided. ?50 million from the
:40:53. > :40:54.government has gone in. Now, maths was never my strong
:40:55. > :40:57.point, and both Labour and the Lib Dems reckon
:40:58. > :40:59.the Conservative sums on school spending should have them standing
:41:00. > :41:02.in the corner in a dunce's cap. Both parties say they'll find
:41:03. > :41:04.billions more for education, which should please one local head,
:41:05. > :41:07.who's written to parents for help I've only got enough
:41:08. > :41:16.for packet of crisps. Grange Hill's notorious bully
:41:17. > :41:20.Gripper Stebson was pretty direct It didn't end well for Gripper
:41:21. > :41:29.and the head teacher at Sale High is hoping a more diplomatic approach
:41:30. > :41:32.to asking parents for money Lynne Nichol said her school,
:41:33. > :41:38.where more than foul in ten pupils receive free meals,
:41:39. > :41:42.faces a big funding gap. It's about sharing with parents
:41:43. > :41:47.and getting them engaged So, in my letter I'm not asking
:41:48. > :41:53.directly for funding. What kind of things
:41:54. > :41:56.could you contribute? Would you be able to offer
:41:57. > :41:58.a financial contribution? Would you be able to offer us
:41:59. > :42:01.support with your time? The National Audit Office says
:42:02. > :42:03.the education budget will have a ?3 billion deficit
:42:04. > :42:06.within three years and opposition parties are very keen to put
:42:07. > :42:10.problems at schools at the centre Labour this week pledged an extra
:42:11. > :42:16.?5 billion through education. Jeremy Corbyn said reversing
:42:17. > :42:18.cuts to corporation tax The Liberal Democrats reckon
:42:19. > :42:27.they can find an extra ?7 billion and will tell us where it's coming
:42:28. > :42:30.from in due course. The Conservatives say school
:42:31. > :42:32.funding is at record levels and will increase further as pupil
:42:33. > :42:34.numbers rise over What Labour and the Liberal
:42:35. > :42:38.Democrats are saying is really quite different from what the current
:42:39. > :42:40.government policy is but, as ever, You either raise taxes,
:42:41. > :42:44.Labour is talking about raising taxes significantly to pay
:42:45. > :42:46.for better public services or you reduce spending on the public
:42:47. > :42:51.service and you keep Back in the Sale, parents
:42:52. > :42:56.so they understand why the head has You want the best education
:42:57. > :43:00.for workloads and if they are asking for money then personally I don't
:43:01. > :43:04.see anything wrong with it. Isn't a bit unusual to ask parents
:43:05. > :43:08.to fund the school when we're I am disgusted by it really
:43:09. > :43:16.because we do pay our taxes for that and I would expect schools
:43:17. > :43:19.to be properly funded. But will promises to balance
:43:20. > :43:38.the books in our schools I will come to you first, Mark,
:43:39. > :43:42.thousands of teachers face the sack, in Cheshire they are talking about
:43:43. > :43:47.going back to a four day week. What is being done about that? Due had a
:43:48. > :43:51.situation under Labour where some schools were getting 50% more than
:43:52. > :43:58.others but not under that familiar in the Northwest the majority of
:43:59. > :44:04.schools will lose out stop yellow constituents will... In Cheshire,
:44:05. > :44:09.West funded in the country. I'm sorry, schools in my constituency,
:44:10. > :44:14.historically were underfunded, are getting more money. But we want more
:44:15. > :44:17.still. We can only get that if you have a strong and stable economy.
:44:18. > :44:21.The Labour Party donor how to run an economy said you can promise giving
:44:22. > :44:23.a lot of money to schools but if your economy has crashed your debt
:44:24. > :44:27.have money to spend -- be Labour have money to spend -- be Labour
:44:28. > :44:34.Party don't know how to run an economy. I'm sure headteachers would
:44:35. > :44:37.welcome the funding increase but it comes at the expense of a
:44:38. > :44:42.corporation tax, which it shrink the economy, it isn't worth it, is it?
:44:43. > :44:44.We had to invest in education and skills to make sure that every
:44:45. > :44:47.citizen, every pupil coming out of citizen, every pupil coming out of
:44:48. > :44:52.school is fully able to contribute to the economy. The vast majority of
:44:53. > :44:59.schools in my constituency are going to lose funding to the tune of ?435
:45:00. > :45:03.per child. I ask a question, how is that going to help them contribute?
:45:04. > :45:05.How will they come out of school fit to take up the employment
:45:06. > :45:11.opportunities that we are all working hard to create for them? If
:45:12. > :45:14.these improvements are going to be funded by corporation tax increases,
:45:15. > :45:19.the Robin Hood tax being talked about today, an extra fee for
:45:20. > :45:21.financial transactions in the city, if ultimately that causes companies
:45:22. > :45:28.to leave the UK, in the end it doesn't help? We already have the
:45:29. > :45:32.lowest corporation tax in the developed world. There is plenty of
:45:33. > :45:36.scope for us to raise corporation tax that will have no impact on
:45:37. > :45:41.business. We can raise it to a level that will bring millions into the
:45:42. > :45:49.education system and still will not impact adversely on the economy.
:45:50. > :45:53.Heritage is making it up, is she? I don't think she is making it up full
:45:54. > :45:59.stop -- the headteacher is not making it up, is she? But we have
:46:00. > :46:05.put in record sums of money in our government. Record sums of money,
:46:06. > :46:09.the National funding from Europe, in the past there was no such thing.
:46:10. > :46:13.The ridiculous situation -- the national funding formula. The
:46:14. > :46:19.ridiculous situation in the past where it was unfair. I am happy for
:46:20. > :46:26.the money coming up north from London. All you get from the Labour
:46:27. > :46:30.increased taxes. In our manifesto, increased taxes. In our manifesto,
:46:31. > :46:36.we will demonstrate that by leaving the EU and saving ?10 billion a year
:46:37. > :46:40.by stop giving ?12 billion away in foreign aid, we can use that money,
:46:41. > :46:46.charity begins at home. But that money has been promised for
:46:47. > :46:50.everything, the NHS, education... Sample social care but somebody
:46:51. > :46:58.education system. -- some for social care. We can stop the overcrowding
:46:59. > :47:02.but we need to put priorities right and put British people first. Stop
:47:03. > :47:06.throwing money away and is adapting the easy thing to do is put up
:47:07. > :47:09.taxes, how about we stop trying to spend so much money? If I don't earn
:47:10. > :47:15.enough money, I have to stop spending and... Putting British
:47:16. > :47:17.people first on education, John Bickley says. But we have
:47:18. > :47:20.commitments to help people are commitments to help people are
:47:21. > :47:28.people in the world. Like North Korea? We don't give money to them.
:47:29. > :47:33.This is all Ukip stuff. You can open their mouth and rubbish comes out.
:47:34. > :47:35.It is a good job that when we are dealing with helping some of the
:47:36. > :47:40.poorest people in the world, the victims of Syria, this government
:47:41. > :47:43.has a proud record on that. When you talk about your policies for
:47:44. > :47:48.education you want more grammar schools. Would that not take money
:47:49. > :47:55.away from the contented school struggling? Not necessarily. It
:47:56. > :47:58.would. When I grew up on every council estate there was a grammar
:47:59. > :48:02.school. Those schools were there to help working class kids. Both of
:48:03. > :48:05.your governments took the opportunity away from working class
:48:06. > :48:09.kids. It used to be there for them and we want to get it back again so
:48:10. > :48:13.on council states around this country there will be a grammar
:48:14. > :48:15.school. So for every grammar school there will be five secondary moderns
:48:16. > :48:23.and that's what you are advocating that is the mass of it. This is a
:48:24. > :48:27.red herring. We need properly funded schools. Headteachers and teachers
:48:28. > :48:30.are saying that we cannot do the job that we are trained to do. Our
:48:31. > :48:35.children are suffering. We can't maximise their potential. The
:48:36. > :48:38.business of the funding formula, there is nothing fair about a
:48:39. > :48:42.funding formula that takes out of every child's School in my
:48:43. > :48:51.constituency, one of the most deprived constituencies. But there
:48:52. > :48:56.has been underfunding everywhere... But instead of a levelling down, I
:48:57. > :49:02.don't want to take away from the education of any child. Should not
:49:03. > :49:05.did the that if we are serious about growing our economy, it starts in
:49:06. > :49:07.the schools, it starts in the nursery schools and primary schools
:49:08. > :49:09.and through the secondary schools. Two years ago John Bickley's Ukip
:49:10. > :49:12.contested more than 95% of seats But this time around they're
:49:13. > :49:15.standing in less than half the 72 in our region,
:49:16. > :49:17.including none in Liverpool. And in last week's local elections,
:49:18. > :49:20.the party's share of the vote was less than half what it
:49:21. > :49:24.polled in 2015. So where will those Ukip voters
:49:25. > :49:28.put their cross on June the 8th? More people in Blackpool
:49:29. > :49:42.voted Leave than anywhere else in the North West
:49:43. > :49:44.- nearly 70%. The town, then, should be a snapshot
:49:45. > :49:47.of perfect Ukip territory. Two years ago, one
:49:48. > :49:49.of their candidates here, Are you seriously saying that Ukip
:49:50. > :49:54.can win Blackpool South? Now the political outlook has
:49:55. > :49:59.shifted and so has he. What's changed in
:50:00. > :50:01.the last two years? I think when I was asked to stand
:50:02. > :50:04.as a candidate this time I realised that it's not about me,
:50:05. > :50:07.it's about the people of Blackpool The only way that change
:50:08. > :50:12.is going to come about is by people voting Conservative,
:50:13. > :50:14.as they have a real Peter's also worried about some
:50:15. > :50:19.of the party's policies. Do you fear for Ukip
:50:20. > :50:24.with the way things are going? I think they run the risk
:50:25. > :50:27.of being wiped out in this election. The concern as well is I can't
:50:28. > :50:30.describe some of the policies that It's almost going back
:50:31. > :50:36.to Neanderthal times. But Ukippers preparing
:50:37. > :50:44.their campaign in Blackpool are convinced that their balloon
:50:45. > :50:46.hasn't been popped. Now that Brexit is happening,
:50:47. > :50:48.there's not as much point to Ukip. Well, no, there's every point
:50:49. > :50:51.to Ukip because the job The job is only half done
:50:52. > :50:56.because we haven't actually left anything and we're still actually
:50:57. > :50:58.paying ?350 million Have you got a realistic chance
:50:59. > :51:08.inside of the seats to using? I wouldn't like to bet on it quite
:51:09. > :51:11.frankly but nevertheless we'll have a good go and every vote
:51:12. > :51:14.for Ukip is a message Blackpool has two seats,
:51:15. > :51:23.on this side of the North Pier it's the Conservatives in charge
:51:24. > :51:25.but if you head over here to the south, down
:51:26. > :51:28.past the tower there, Ukip polled well in both
:51:29. > :51:31.constituencies last time around with more than 5000 votes in each,
:51:32. > :51:34.so what now happens to those voters will go a long way to deciding
:51:35. > :51:38.the outcome in this town. You wouldn't consider Ukip,
:51:39. > :51:42.even with a top that colour? Ukip if there was a proper option
:51:43. > :51:44.but it's obvious they're not going to get in because everybody's
:51:45. > :51:47.switching to the Conservatives. I think they've done
:51:48. > :51:57.what they set out to do. Because I believe in Labour,
:51:58. > :52:05.that's why, I think At the moment, the Ukip vote
:52:06. > :52:09.is breaking three to one That could make a difference in some
:52:10. > :52:13.of our key marginals, particularly in the Lancashire area
:52:14. > :52:15.where, frankly, Ukip's vote transparent over
:52:16. > :52:17.to the Conservatives puts Thank you so much
:52:18. > :52:21.for supporting Ukip. Ukip does still have it supporters
:52:22. > :52:27.but are there enough of them to keep the party relevant in this
:52:28. > :52:43.changing political landscape? So, John Bickley, Neanderthal
:52:44. > :52:47.policies, time gone, is that the reality? No, we want to deliver
:52:48. > :52:50.Brexit, we want to put the country before the party and we recognise
:52:51. > :52:54.that the Conservatives are likely to be the government on June eight. We
:52:55. > :52:59.know the Tory government mugged the British people when they took them
:53:00. > :53:03.into the EU under false fences. Theresa May is telling us she will
:53:04. > :53:09.deliver Brexit. She will get a large mandate to do that. Many Ukip people
:53:10. > :53:14.will support her. We hope some Ukip MPs will be in Parliament. Not why
:53:15. > :53:17.not support you to be in government to put it through? We are living in
:53:18. > :53:22.the real world. It is obvious that this moment in time the Tories will
:53:23. > :53:26.get elected in June. They are telling the British people they will
:53:27. > :53:31.deliver Brexit so what Mark could do to prove that, will you guarantee on
:53:32. > :53:35.this show that we will get 100% control of our fishing back, 100%
:53:36. > :53:42.control of our wars and punched percent control of immigration and
:53:43. > :53:45.trade? Here is somebody who doesn't know how to negotiate. You don't go
:53:46. > :53:48.into a beginning of a negotiation saying what you are going to get and
:53:49. > :53:53.what you are not going to get. This is why you cannot trust Ukip. They
:53:54. > :54:00.are a spent force, a one trick pony. What I have got in my part of the
:54:01. > :54:04.world is decent people who voted for Ukip who realise they cannot vote
:54:05. > :54:07.for Ukip again because what they want is a strong Prime Minister who
:54:08. > :54:11.will deliver Brexit but they also looked at a Labour Party that is
:54:12. > :54:15.committed to defence jobs being destroyed across Lancashire with a
:54:16. > :54:19.ban on arms sales and Theresa May is the only person they can put their
:54:20. > :54:26.vote into. Decent people are rejecting Ukip. Conservative vote is
:54:27. > :54:29.going to the Tories but in Bury North, a tight marginal
:54:30. > :54:32.constituency, you are actively telling people to vote Conservative
:54:33. > :54:36.and you are not standing. When you ask the Tory party to confirm to the
:54:37. > :54:39.British people that when we leave the EU we will get back control of
:54:40. > :54:48.the sovereign item such as fishing, you avoid it. I have not avoided
:54:49. > :54:56.of immigration back? You know fine of immigration back? You know fine
:54:57. > :55:03.well we will. You know fine well... It is better than on the record, it
:55:04. > :55:07.is on telly. You know the Conservative Party's position is to
:55:08. > :55:13.get control of immigration and fishing. 100% control of immigration
:55:14. > :55:19.and lawmaking? Ukip does not understand the art of negotiation.
:55:20. > :55:25.That is why we need Theresa May. Let's bring julienne. You would hope
:55:26. > :55:31.that the predicted demise of Ukip would lead to some of your former
:55:32. > :55:33.supporters coming back but if they are due to vote for the
:55:34. > :55:39.Conservatives this is a disaster for Labour isn't it? This is complex.
:55:40. > :55:40.Where the original support of Ukip came from is a mixture. I
:55:41. > :55:44.on doorsteps that some of the on doorsteps that some of the
:55:45. > :55:49.support came from Labour voters, conversations I had yesterday where
:55:50. > :55:54.people said I voted Ukip last time because I wanted to come out of the
:55:55. > :55:57.EU. The job has been done, now I am going back to Labour. We have other
:55:58. > :56:04.people who will go back to being Conservatives. People feel this is a
:56:05. > :56:07.election on Brexit, as Theresa May wants to make it. People don't have
:56:08. > :56:11.confidence that Jeremy Corbyn would confidence that Jeremy Corbyn would
:56:12. > :56:15.definitely take us out of Europe. What I am finding is that people in
:56:16. > :56:21.Burnley are saying, and I have not on hundreds of doorsteps, and people
:56:22. > :56:28.are saying that Brexit is behind us and you supported our position, we
:56:29. > :56:31.are out of it. Is it behind us now? The result was decisive, we accept
:56:32. > :56:38.that. People across the country and that. People across the country and
:56:39. > :56:42.especially in my constituency, it's important we get the right deal
:56:43. > :56:49.going forward and you cannot trust the Tories. Can you trust the Tories
:56:50. > :56:53.on the promise to reduce the immigration to tens of thousands.
:56:54. > :56:57.supporters with this? No, because we supporters with this? No, because we
:56:58. > :57:01.have decent Ukip people who are looking at Theresa May as a strong
:57:02. > :57:05.Prime Minister who will stand up to the EU 27 and get a good deal for
:57:06. > :57:10.Britain. We are told it could be bad for the economy, you felt to do it
:57:11. > :57:15.after promising into macro elections. Wannabe huge differences
:57:16. > :57:18.is after Brexit you can control your that is one of the fundamental
:57:19. > :57:24.differences and Prime Minister Theresa May has been clear that we
:57:25. > :57:27.will have control of borders and she will negotiate get a good deal and I
:57:28. > :57:30.would ask you, who do you think will get a better deal for Britain,
:57:31. > :57:32.Jeremy Corbyn or Theresa May? I think people out there, though the
:57:33. > :57:35.answer to that question. Julie, as well as the leaked
:57:36. > :57:38.manifesto, there were some more local issues for
:57:39. > :57:40.the Labour Party this week. Steve Rotheram won't stand
:57:41. > :57:43.again in Liverpool Walton after he was installed as mayor
:57:44. > :57:46.for the Liverpool City Region, He said he wanted his
:57:47. > :57:51.successor chosen locally. But the Mayor of the city
:57:52. > :57:54.of Liverpool, Joe Anderson here, He was passed over for Dan Carden
:57:55. > :58:00.an aide to the Unite Union's General Local members said they'd resign
:58:01. > :58:05.and Joe Anderson responded by stating that "today
:58:06. > :58:23.we are reminded that the Labour So, Julie, we know the public don't
:58:24. > :58:27.like divided parties. Why parachute someone in like this? You will
:58:28. > :58:31.understand that I have not been able to give a lot of time to worrying
:58:32. > :58:34.about the selection of candidates in Liverpool. I have been busy running
:58:35. > :58:38.my own election campaign. What I would say is that as we go into this
:58:39. > :58:44.general election, as we left rest minster ready to fight for a Labour
:58:45. > :58:53.government, we could not have been more united. -- as we left
:58:54. > :58:57.Westminster. People from all corners of the party visit my constituency
:58:58. > :59:12.to help pull the campaign and that is because... I had Jeremy Corbyn in
:59:13. > :59:17.my constituency supporting me. You are one of the only few who does.
:59:18. > :59:23.Labour Party was not united. Hundreds 70 of your colleagues did
:59:24. > :59:30.not want Jeremy Corbyn made them. -- 170 of York colleagues did not want
:59:31. > :59:35.Jeremy Corbyn near them. Aaron Banks saying he is a dead man walking
:59:36. > :59:39.ahead of this election. He is not the party's biggest donor, he has
:59:40. > :59:42.not given us any money of any substance for a long time now. Paul
:59:43. > :59:45.Nuttall said he wanted to target Labour voters in the Northwest.
:59:46. > :59:53.We're this election has changed everything. Let's be truthful. On
:59:54. > :59:57.June eight we are going to get a Tory government with a large wedge
:59:58. > :00:05.oratory. In some respects we are not happy about that, we would like more
:00:06. > :00:09.Ukip MPs -- with a large majority. Quick word on the reality, are you
:00:10. > :00:16.getting cocky in the Conservative Party? Theresa May bringing up fox
:00:17. > :00:20.hunting, unnecessary and divisive. We are not getting cocky, which is
:00:21. > :00:24.why we are going to areas that have never voted Conservative in a
:00:25. > :00:27.generation. We are taking every vote that is out there to be won. We are
:00:28. > :00:31.speaking to every electorate as an individual. We are not going to
:00:32. > :00:35.unite and asking, who do we want as candidate. We're not going to Len
:00:36. > :00:42.McCluskey to write a manifesto for us. These are the priorities of the
:00:43. > :00:43.real Conservative Party, that's what we can expect is Theresa May
:00:44. > :00:45.increases her mandate. Thanks to Julie Cooper,
:00:46. > :00:48.Mark Menzies and John Bickley. Graham Brady and Lucy Powell will be
:00:49. > :00:51.among next week's guests. And we'll have candidates
:00:52. > :00:53.from the Liberal Democrats, Greens and other parties over
:00:54. > :00:57.the next few weeks as well. Tories are saying. It is a very
:00:58. > :01:04.emotive subject and we have run out of time.
:01:05. > :01:09.On Thursday nominations closed in the 650 parliamentary
:01:10. > :01:11.seats across the country, so now we know exactly who's
:01:12. > :01:18.We've been analysing the parties' candidates to find out
:01:19. > :01:21.what they might tell us about the make-up of the House
:01:22. > :01:25.Well, we know Theresa May is committed to delivering Brexit and
:01:26. > :01:30.analysis of Conservative candidates has shown that
:01:31. > :01:33.in their top 100 target seats, 37 candidates supported leave
:01:34. > :01:41.during last year's referendum campaign
:01:42. > :01:43.and 20 supported remain; 43 have not made public
:01:44. > :01:49.In the last parliament, the vast majority of Labour MPs
:01:50. > :01:51.were hostile to Jeremy Corbyn so how supportive are Labour
:01:52. > :01:58.Well, of 50 of Labour's top 100 target seats
:01:59. > :02:00.17 candidates have expressed support for Mr Corbyn.
:02:01. > :02:05.20 candidates supported Owen Smith in last year's leadership contest
:02:06. > :02:09.or have expressed anti-Corbyn sentiment, and
:02:10. > :02:15.If they won those, the Labour benches would be
:02:16. > :02:17.marginally more sympathetic to Mr Corbyn than they are now.
:02:18. > :02:19.What do the figures tell us about where the other
:02:20. > :02:23.Well, the Lib Dems have decided not to stand against the Greens
:02:24. > :02:25.in Brighton Pavilion, and are fielding 629
:02:26. > :02:28.candidates this year - that's two fewer than 2015.
:02:29. > :02:32.The number of Ukip candidates has fallen dramatically.
:02:33. > :02:38.They are standing in 247 fewer constituencies than 2015,
:02:39. > :02:40.throwing their support behind solidly pro-Brexit Tories
:02:41. > :02:44.in some areas such as Lewes and Norfolk North.
:02:45. > :02:48.The Greens are fielding 103 fewer candidates
:02:49. > :02:59.than at the last election, standing down to help
:03:00. > :03:05.other progressive candidates in some places.
:03:06. > :03:18.The most liking statistic is the demise in Ukip candidates, is this
:03:19. > :03:24.their swansong? And I think so. It is remarkable how few Ukip
:03:25. > :03:28.candidates are standing. It is hard to see they will suddenly revive in
:03:29. > :03:38.the next couple of years. I think this is probably the end. Frank
:03:39. > :03:42.Luntz mentioned the fragmentation of the left was a feature of this
:03:43. > :03:45.election, but also there is the consolidation of the right, and if
:03:46. > :03:50.you take the things together that could explain why the polls are
:03:51. > :03:55.where they are. Absolutely, that's precisely what happened at the start
:03:56. > :04:00.of the 1980s, the right was incredibly united and that's when we
:04:01. > :04:07.started talking about majorities of over 100 or so. No matter what the
:04:08. > :04:11.size of Theresa May's majority, it will be the total collapse of Ukip,
:04:12. > :04:17.but not just because we are now leaving the EU and that was their
:04:18. > :04:21.only reason for being, but a whole lot of people voted for Ukip because
:04:22. > :04:29.they felt the Tories were no longer listening. Theresa May has given the
:04:30. > :04:32.impression that she is listening, and that is the biggest possible
:04:33. > :04:40.thing that could happen to the Tory vote. Fragmentation of the left,
:04:41. > :04:47.consolidation of the right? It's one of the lessons that is never learnt,
:04:48. > :04:51.it happened in the 1980s, it doesn't take much for the whole thing to
:04:52. > :04:57.fracture so now you have on the centre-left the SNP, the Labour
:04:58. > :05:02.Party, the Greens, the Liberal Democrats all competing for the same
:05:03. > :05:06.votes and when you have, fleetingly perhaps, large numbers coalescing on
:05:07. > :05:12.the right in one party, there is only going to be one outcome. It
:05:13. > :05:17.happens regularly. It doesn't mean the Tories haven't got their own
:05:18. > :05:21.fragility. Two years ago, David Cameron and George Osborne the
:05:22. > :05:25.dominant figures, neither are in Parliament now which is a symptom of
:05:26. > :05:31.the fragility this election is disguising. Mrs May's position in a
:05:32. > :05:36.way reminds me of Mrs Thatcher in the 1980s, I won't be outflanked on
:05:37. > :05:40.the right, Nicolas Sarkozy in France, I won't be outflanked on the
:05:41. > :05:43.right, so the National Front didn't get through either timed he ran to
:05:44. > :05:50.the second round on like this time, and now Mrs May on Brexit won't be
:05:51. > :05:54.outflanked Iver and as a result has seen off right flank. And also she
:05:55. > :05:58.is looking to the left as well with some of the state interventions.
:05:59. > :06:01.What was interesting about the analysis you showed a few minutes
:06:02. > :06:06.ago was the number of Tory candidates who have apparently not
:06:07. > :06:10.declared which way they voted in the referendum, and you would have
:06:11. > :06:14.thought if this election was all about Brexit, as some would claim,
:06:15. > :06:19.that would become an unsustainable position, and actually more it's
:06:20. > :06:24.about leadership. But the point that I'm now hearing from a number of
:06:25. > :06:30.Labour candidates that they are seeing Tory leaflets that don't even
:06:31. > :06:35.have the Tory candidate's name on them, it is just about Theresa May.
:06:36. > :06:40.I am glad they are keeping to the law because by law they have to put
:06:41. > :06:46.it on. It has been harder for some of the smaller parties too because
:06:47. > :06:52.of the speed of the election being called. We have the manifesto is
:06:53. > :06:56.coming out this week. I think Labour Forshaw on Tuesday, we are not yet
:06:57. > :07:00.sure when the Tories will bring bears out. I suggest one thing, it
:07:01. > :07:08.will at least for people like me bring an end to the question you
:07:09. > :07:11.will have to wait for the manifesto. And Rebecca Long baby will never
:07:12. > :07:21.have that excuse again, isn't it wonderful! She is not the only one.
:07:22. > :07:27.When you are trying to take the north and Midlands from Labour, I
:07:28. > :07:32.would go to one or the other. For me, I can barely hold back my
:07:33. > :07:35.excitement over the Tory manifesto. This will be, I think, the most
:07:36. > :07:44.important day for the British government for the next five years.
:07:45. > :07:49.That wasn't irony there? You actually meant that? I'm not even
:07:50. > :07:56.being cynical at all on Sunday Politics! This is a huge day and
:07:57. > :08:01.it's because I think we will see... I don't think Mrs May will play it
:08:02. > :08:06.safe and I don't think we will get the broadbrush stuff that she might
:08:07. > :08:10.be advised to do. I think she will lay out precisely what you want to
:08:11. > :08:15.do over the next five years and take some big risks. Then finally after a
:08:16. > :08:19.year of this guessing and theorising, we will finally work out
:08:20. > :08:22.what Mrs May is all about. She will say she doesn't want the next
:08:23. > :08:26.parliament to be all about Brexit, though she knows that's the next
:08:27. > :08:30.important thing she has to deliver in some way, so she gets a mandate
:08:31. > :08:41.for that if the polls are right but she
:08:42. > :08:46.does have very different ideas from Mr Cameron about how to run a
:08:47. > :08:47.country. She will I assume one to mandate for what these different
:08:48. > :08:50.ideas are. Otherwise there is no point in holding an early election.
:08:51. > :08:54.You will get a majority, but if you get a mandate to carry on
:08:55. > :08:57.implementing the Cameron and Osborne manifesto it would be utterly
:08:58. > :09:00.pointless. I agree, it is the pivotal event of the election and it
:09:01. > :09:04.will be interesting to see the degree to which she expands on the
:09:05. > :09:09.line which interests me about its time to look at the good that
:09:10. > :09:16.government can do. Because in a way this moves the debate on in UK
:09:17. > :09:19.politics from, from 97 the Blair Brown governments were insecure
:09:20. > :09:24.about arguing about the role of government. Cameron Osborne
:09:25. > :09:28.government similarly so, so here you have a Labour Party talking about
:09:29. > :09:32.the role of government and the state, and Tory leader apparently
:09:33. > :09:36.doing so was well. I think that will be really interesting to see whether
:09:37. > :09:41.it is fleshed out in any significant way. And it is not a natural Tory
:09:42. > :09:49.message. Harold Macmillan talked about the role of the state, Ted
:09:50. > :09:54.Heath Mark two was pretty big on the state, the industrial policy and so
:09:55. > :09:58.on, and even if it is not thought to be that Tory, does she get away with
:09:59. > :10:03.it because she deliver such a big victory if that's what she does
:10:04. > :10:09.deliver? Just inject a little note of scepticism, I wonder how much of
:10:10. > :10:17.this is authentically Theresa May. I was interested to and talk to
:10:18. > :10:20.someone who used to sit in cabinet meetings during which Theresa May
:10:21. > :10:23.never expressed an opinion on anything outside the Home Office
:10:24. > :10:32.briefs. Other ministers were roving all over their colleagues' briefs.
:10:33. > :10:39.So where are the ideas coming from? I think we can point to Nick
:10:40. > :10:44.Timothy. One of her closest advisers in Downing Street. It will be
:10:45. > :10:50.interesting to see how that evolves. On Thursday I think we will all be
:10:51. > :11:00.talking about something called Urdington Toryism. Urdington is the
:11:01. > :11:05.suburb of Birmingham where Nick Timothy comes from, who is very much
:11:06. > :11:10.Theresa May's policy brain and leading inspiration. Urdington
:11:11. > :11:15.Toryism is about connecting the party with traditional working class
:11:16. > :11:19.voters, and their belief to do that is not just taking away government
:11:20. > :11:23.out of their lives but showing them that government can actually help
:11:24. > :11:35.their lives. It can be a force for good to rebuild the trust. A lot of
:11:36. > :11:39.what Mrs May talks about is all... It is talk and then a lot of it
:11:40. > :11:48.suddenly goes by the wayside. What happened to worker directors on the
:11:49. > :11:52.boards. It is designed to appeal to that constituency and then nothing
:11:53. > :11:57.happens. She had an excuse before in the sense that it wasn't in the 2015
:11:58. > :12:00.manifesto and she had a small majority so therefore she arguably
:12:01. > :12:06.had to water down some of the stuff for example in her Tory conference
:12:07. > :12:10.speech, which had a lot of this active government material in it. If
:12:11. > :12:15.she puts it in the manifesto, it is a sign she plans to do it and will
:12:16. > :12:19.have no excuse if she then gets nervous afterwards because it will
:12:20. > :12:24.be in there. If it wasn't for Brexit, this great overwhelming
:12:25. > :12:27.issue, I think this election will be seen as quite a significant
:12:28. > :12:32.development in terms of an argument around the role of government,
:12:33. > :12:37.much-needed. But Brexit unfortunately overshadows it all. As
:12:38. > :12:41.much as we like our arguments over the role of government we will hear
:12:42. > :12:49.strong and stable, stable and strong ad nauseam, aren't we? Absolutely,
:12:50. > :12:55.and we heard the same old lines from the Labour Party as well so they are
:12:56. > :12:58.all at it. It will be a fascinating week, stop talking it down! Thanks
:12:59. > :13:01.to our panel. The Daily Politics will be
:13:02. > :13:03.back on BBC Two at noon I'll be back here at the same time
:13:04. > :13:08.on BBC One next Sunday. Remember - if it's Sunday,
:13:09. > :13:42.it's the Sunday Politics. When it came to my TV habits,
:13:43. > :13:45.I'd watch anything... But now I can sign in online
:13:46. > :13:49.and get more of what I love. I'm kept up to date
:13:50. > :13:52.with the shows I love and I get suggestions
:13:53. > :13:55.on subjects I'll like. A new personalised BBC
:13:56. > :14:08.is on its way. To tailor the benefits to you,
:14:09. > :14:12.sign in and introduce yourself.