19/11/2017

0:00:36 > 0:00:38Morning everyone, and welcome to the Sunday Politics.

0:00:38 > 0:00:39I'm Sarah Smith.

0:00:39 > 0:00:42And this is your guide to all the big stories that

0:00:42 > 0:00:48are shaping politics this weekend, and a few of the smaller ones too.

0:00:48 > 0:00:51on Wednesday and he's not short of advice - to spend more,

0:00:51 > 0:00:54show restraint, even to stop being an Eyore -

0:00:54 > 0:01:01but can he change the direction of the country and his government?

0:01:01 > 0:01:03some advice of his own.

0:01:03 > 0:01:09He thinks the Chancellor is being far too gloomy about Brexit

0:01:09 > 0:01:13The former Leave campaign leader, Gisela Stuart, will be here debating

0:01:13 > 0:01:15with pro-EU campaigner Alastair Campbell, after taking

0:01:15 > 0:01:18a trip to her native Germany to speak to businesses

0:01:18 > 0:01:22about Brexit.

0:01:22 > 0:01:25And, as we wait to find out what's on the menu for this week's budget,

0:01:25 > 0:01:27we're in a diner off the A1 in Peterborough,

0:01:27 > 0:01:31finding out who people most trust with the economy -

0:01:31 > 0:01:33And in the northwest, freedom of movement.

0:01:33 > 0:01:35Well, there's plenty in these feet, but what

0:01:35 > 0:01:37about post Brexit?

0:01:37 > 0:01:41Will the Irish here still be dancing with joy?

0:01:50 > 0:01:53And with me for for all of it, three journalists who've promised

0:01:53 > 0:01:56not to show off like Michael Gove by using any long economicky words -

0:01:56 > 0:01:59although I'm not sure they really know that many anyway -

0:01:59 > 0:02:02it's Tom Newton Dunn, Gaby Hinsliff and Iain Martin.

0:02:02 > 0:02:05Let's take a look at the big political stories making the news

0:02:05 > 0:02:07this Sunday morning, and as you might expect there's

0:02:07 > 0:02:10plenty of speculation about what might or not might be

0:02:10 > 0:02:12in Philip Hammond's Budget.

0:02:12 > 0:02:15The Chancellor is promising a big investment in new technology,

0:02:15 > 0:02:18including driverless cars - which could be on the road by 2021.

0:02:18 > 0:02:21He's been interviewed in the Sunday Times,

0:02:21 > 0:02:24where he talks about plans to reach the target of building

0:02:24 > 0:02:27300,000 homes every year, or the equivalent of a city

0:02:27 > 0:02:29the size of Leeds.

0:02:29 > 0:02:32That paper speculates that he's attempting to turn from "fiscal

0:02:32 > 0:02:35Phil" into "hopeful Hammond" as he tries to set out

0:02:35 > 0:02:37a vision for the country, not just a list of numbers.

0:02:37 > 0:02:40The Sunday Telegraph thinks that Mr Hammond is planning to offer

0:02:40 > 0:02:43a pay rise to nurses as part of a bid to take on Labour.

0:02:43 > 0:02:46But that hasn't impressed Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell.

0:02:46 > 0:02:49He's spoken to a number of papers and is calling for an emergency

0:02:49 > 0:02:52budget to invest in public services and help struggling households.

0:02:52 > 0:02:55So that's a taste of what you might hear on Wednesday and Mr Hammond

0:02:55 > 0:02:58and Mr McDonnell have both been appearing this morning

0:02:58 > 0:03:02on the Andrew Marr Show.

0:03:02 > 0:03:04I think Britain has a very bright future ahead of it,

0:03:04 > 0:03:07and we have to embrace the opportunities that

0:03:07 > 0:03:09a post-Brexit world will offer.

0:03:09 > 0:03:12They will be opportunities that are based on huge change,

0:03:12 > 0:03:15huge technological evolution.

0:03:15 > 0:03:18It's not always going to be easy, but the British people have shown

0:03:18 > 0:03:20time and time again that we're up for these challenges.

0:03:20 > 0:03:24For many people out there, this is a depression.

0:03:24 > 0:03:27We've had people whose wages have been cut by 10%.

0:03:27 > 0:03:29Nurses, for example.

0:03:29 > 0:03:32We've had people who are now...

0:03:32 > 0:03:361.25 million food parcels handed out in the sixth richest

0:03:36 > 0:03:38country in the world.

0:03:38 > 0:03:46That's what I call a recession for large numbers of people.

0:03:46 > 0:03:51We will be talking about Labour and their economic policies in a moment,

0:03:51 > 0:03:55but let's start with what we might expect from the budget. We will talk

0:03:55 > 0:03:59to our panel of political observers. Philip Hammond is under pressure to

0:03:59 > 0:04:04set out a bold vision and reset the government's programme. Can we

0:04:04 > 0:04:10expect that?No, we can't. We have heard enough from the Chancellor

0:04:10 > 0:04:14across various broadcast and his article in the Sunday Times. I think

0:04:14 > 0:04:23we will not be getting a bold budget. His precise words short... A

0:04:23 > 0:04:25short time ago were a balanced budget. Some Tory hearts will think.

0:04:25 > 0:04:30They desperately want something to go out and shout about, something to

0:04:30 > 0:04:34capture people's imagination, and do big and bold things, like how on

0:04:34 > 0:04:40earth are they going to build those new 300,000 houses a year? There are

0:04:40 > 0:04:47good reasons why he has chosen what appears to be a pretty staid,

0:04:47 > 0:04:52Conservative budget, and that is that they are probably unable to get

0:04:52 > 0:04:55anything bold through Parliament. His capital is so low among Tory

0:04:55 > 0:05:04MPs. If you have a minority government, it is tricky.We have

0:05:04 > 0:05:07seen ministers on programmes like this in the last few weeks putting

0:05:07 > 0:05:12in the bids for what they would like spending on, whether it be payment

0:05:12 > 0:05:16for nurses or parliament. Would he struggled to get something radical

0:05:16 > 0:05:22through the Commons?Big ideas cost money. That's the problem. Bold

0:05:22 > 0:05:28ideas are controversial. In some ways, Tory MPs are asking their

0:05:28 > 0:05:32Chancellor to do the impossible. Government is already doing

0:05:32 > 0:05:37something big and bold, which is Brexit. That has implications for

0:05:37 > 0:05:41how much money is available, how many risks you want to take with

0:05:41 > 0:05:46everything else. What is crucial is that he demonstrates a reputation

0:05:46 > 0:05:51for competence. The reputation that the Conservative government has for

0:05:51 > 0:05:56economic competence, that many people prefer them to Labour on the

0:05:56 > 0:06:00issue of economic competence. The worst thing he could do is come up

0:06:00 > 0:06:05with a big, bold idea that unravelled quickly. What they

0:06:05 > 0:06:10absolutely don't want is to come up with an exciting idea that falls

0:06:10 > 0:06:14apart three days after the budget. He is under pressure from

0:06:14 > 0:06:18Brexiteers, who are suspicious of him. Does he have to offer them

0:06:18 > 0:06:23something?Part of his problem is he has to offer so many different

0:06:23 > 0:06:26people different things. This is Philip Hammond trying to be and

0:06:26 > 0:06:34dynamic.It is hard to tell sometimes.At least in theoretical

0:06:34 > 0:06:43terms. His longer-term difficulty is that, if you look at the economic

0:06:43 > 0:06:48cycle, we are getting to a point where we are probably overdue, if

0:06:48 > 0:06:54you put Brexit to one side, overdue some kind of correction or downturn,

0:06:54 > 0:06:59if you look what has happened to asset prices globally. What will be

0:06:59 > 0:07:04worrying for the Treasury is, just as everyone is saying we should turn

0:07:04 > 0:07:10on the taps and build this or that, we might be at the top of a cycle,

0:07:10 > 0:07:14and the Treasury will want to lose something in the armoury in terms of

0:07:14 > 0:07:18probably growing the deficit if there are economic difficulties in

0:07:18 > 0:07:23the next two years, and then there is Brexit as well.It sounds

0:07:23 > 0:07:28impossible.I think so. Talking to his friends and colleagues over the

0:07:28 > 0:07:33last few days, he had to make a call, which was precisely how much

0:07:33 > 0:07:39can I get away with, with my political capital being as low as it

0:07:39 > 0:07:46is, with the mixed problems he had at the last budget, and a lot of the

0:07:46 > 0:07:50party disliking his approach to Brexit. He is damned if he is,

0:07:50 > 0:07:59damned if he doesn't. Universal Credit, we are expecting a reduction

0:07:59 > 0:08:07in the time it takes to wait, business rates, affected by high

0:08:07 > 0:08:11inflation... I think we will see a problem fixing budget which will

0:08:11 > 0:08:16probably do quite a lot of important spadework in many areas.We will

0:08:16 > 0:08:21pick up on some of this later in the programme.

0:08:21 > 0:08:24Let's speak now to the Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg, this week

0:08:24 > 0:08:26he helpfully launched an alternative "budget for Brexit" and advised

0:08:26 > 0:08:28the Chancellor to be less gloomy about the consequences

0:08:28 > 0:08:33of leaving the EU.

0:08:33 > 0:08:37Thank you for joining us. Your alternative budget is pretty

0:08:37 > 0:08:45radical. Almost half corporation tax, Cap Stamp duty to help the

0:08:45 > 0:08:50London market. It seems you are advocating the opposite from what we

0:08:50 > 0:08:54will hear from your Chancellor on Wednesday.There are two parts to

0:08:54 > 0:08:59the proposals I suggested. One is that we should show that after we

0:08:59 > 0:09:04have left the European Union, the UK is open to the rest of the world. It

0:09:04 > 0:09:08is about opening up to the rest of the world. Secondly, looking at the

0:09:08 > 0:09:13modelling that has been done by the Treasury and some other forecasters,

0:09:13 > 0:09:17which has been so comprehensively wrong. The forecasts made about what

0:09:17 > 0:09:25would happen after Brexit have turned out to be hopelessly false.

0:09:25 > 0:09:30The team at Cardiff University have done some modelling based on the

0:09:30 > 0:09:33classical economic principles and what happens if you move to free

0:09:33 > 0:09:38trade that would be very positive for the economy.You are predicting

0:09:38 > 0:09:46a Brexit dividend of £135 billion, which sounds fantastic. Why are you

0:09:46 > 0:09:51right, and everybody else, including the Bank of England and the

0:09:51 > 0:09:54Institute for Fiscal Studies, why are they all wrong?It depends on

0:09:54 > 0:09:59the type of modelling. The modelling that have been done by the Treasury

0:09:59 > 0:10:03have been based on gravity models, which work on the basis of the

0:10:03 > 0:10:07nearness of the market and the size of the economy you are trading with.

0:10:07 > 0:10:13These have been wrong in the past. They predicted that if we joined the

0:10:13 > 0:10:20euro, trade would grow by 300%. That was then revised down to 200%, but

0:10:20 > 0:10:26it is fantasyland. The model I am working on, by Sir Patrick Minford,

0:10:26 > 0:10:34who has a record of getting these things right. He was right about the

0:10:34 > 0:10:38exchange rate mechanism, right about the euro.Being right in the past

0:10:38 > 0:10:43doesn't mean you are right about the future. Why do you think the

0:10:43 > 0:10:47Treasury will not pick up the same numbers, if this is so obvious to

0:10:47 > 0:10:53you?I think the Treasury was humiliated by the errors in its

0:10:53 > 0:10:58forecast prior to Brexit, and is trying to defend its position. The

0:10:58 > 0:11:01short-term economic consequences of a vote to leave was one of the most

0:11:01 > 0:11:08dishonest documents to come out of the Treasury, purely a piece of

0:11:08 > 0:11:10political propaganda. They are wounded by that and sticking to the

0:11:10 > 0:11:16same script, rather than looking at other forecasts and other experts.

0:11:16 > 0:11:19You think the governor of the Bank of England is an enemy of Brexit,

0:11:19 > 0:11:24and it sounds like you think the Treasury is opposed to it. As the

0:11:24 > 0:11:29Chancellor fallen under their spell as well, and been persuaded to be an

0:11:29 > 0:11:35enemy of Brexit?I have admiration the Chancellor, but George Osborne,

0:11:35 > 0:11:40his predecessor, was the architect of Project Fear. He was too close to

0:11:40 > 0:11:44the Bank of England and lost his independence. That is what needs to

0:11:44 > 0:11:51change. It is an opportunity in the budget for Philip Hammond to show he

0:11:51 > 0:11:55is putting aside the Treasury's mistakes in the past. It is very

0:11:55 > 0:12:01encouraging what he is saying this morning, about a more positive

0:12:01 > 0:12:05approach to Brexit.Lord Lawson has accused Philip Hammond of being very

0:12:05 > 0:12:12close to sabotage on Brexit. He says we need a can-do man at the Treasury

0:12:12 > 0:12:16and not a prophet of doom.I think that Philip Hammond is an

0:12:16 > 0:12:20exceptionally intelligent man, a very thoughtful man. It is not a bad

0:12:20 > 0:12:25thing to have a Chancellor who is serious minded and steady, rather

0:12:25 > 0:12:32than one who is a showman and uses the Exchequer to interfere in

0:12:32 > 0:12:37absolutely everything.I have a lot of confidence in the Chancellor.

0:12:37 > 0:12:41When you launched your budget for Brexit, you said the government has

0:12:41 > 0:12:47to deliver the £350 million for the NHS that was delivered during the

0:12:47 > 0:12:50referendum, even though you didn't think that promise should have been

0:12:50 > 0:12:56made. Is that something they now need to deliver wrong?It is. This

0:12:56 > 0:13:01only happens once we have left. Politicians have to recognise that

0:13:01 > 0:13:08voters don't look at the small print of electoral policies. If you put

0:13:08 > 0:13:14£350 million on the side of a bus and say it may be available for the

0:13:14 > 0:13:19NHS, it is reasonable for people to think that is a promise. Brexit was

0:13:19 > 0:13:25won by the Leave campaign, so it it is important that they deliver on

0:13:25 > 0:13:29that promise. Politicians must keep faith with voters and deliver on

0:13:29 > 0:13:34implied promises, as well as ones that are set out in detail.The

0:13:34 > 0:13:38Cabinet will move on to talk about the Brexit bill this week, and we

0:13:38 > 0:13:43understand they may need to come up with more money to satisfy EU

0:13:43 > 0:13:47demands. The more money spent on that is less money available for

0:13:47 > 0:13:52things like spending on the NHS. Are you worried about the size of the

0:13:52 > 0:13:59exit bill?You have your finger on the important point. The government

0:13:59 > 0:14:03will have to choose whether to give lots of money to the European Union,

0:14:03 > 0:14:08or whether to spend money on UK public services, and that will be

0:14:08 > 0:14:12part of the negotiation. On all these issues, it comes down to

0:14:12 > 0:14:18choice is the government makes. I would encourage the government to

0:14:18 > 0:14:21choose our own domestic public services rather than expensive

0:14:21 > 0:14:25schemes in continent or Europe.Why are you advocating that the

0:14:25 > 0:14:35government should spend up to £2.5 billion on a no deal scenario?

0:14:35 > 0:14:40It is important that we are ready to leave in the event of no deal. If we

0:14:40 > 0:14:46left with no deal we would on current figures still be saving the

0:14:46 > 0:14:52remains of 18 billion so we would be saving 15 and a half billion against

0:14:52 > 0:14:57paying for the financial framework. To show we're ready on day one would

0:14:57 > 0:15:05be money well spent and most would be needed any way. We need to have

0:15:05 > 0:15:09new customs arrangements in place even if it is not for a no deal

0:15:09 > 0:15:12situation.There are suggestions that the Government might back down

0:15:12 > 0:15:16on the idea of putting the time and date of leaving the EU on the face

0:15:16 > 0:15:20of the bill. Would you be Exxon certained if that was -- concerned

0:15:20 > 0:15:28if that was remove prd the bill?It is in Article 50, unless Article 50

0:15:28 > 0:15:38is extended by the Council of Europe we leave on 20th March 2019 and it

0:15:38 > 0:15:42makes accepts that should be the same in -- sense that should be in

0:15:42 > 0:15:46same in domestic law. But that is a secondary concern from my point of

0:15:46 > 0:15:51view. It is important that we leave on that date.Stay there if you

0:15:51 > 0:15:52would.

0:15:52 > 0:15:54We're joined in the studio by the former minister

0:15:54 > 0:15:55Stephen Hammond.

0:15:55 > 0:15:58He's no relation to the Chancellor, but he is a member

0:15:58 > 0:16:01of the Treasury Select Committee and he's one of the Tory MPs named

0:16:01 > 0:16:03as "Brexit mutineers" by the Daily Telegraph

0:16:03 > 0:16:05this week - lucky him.

0:16:05 > 0:16:11I'm assured you're no relation to the Chancellor. Let's just pick up

0:16:11 > 0:16:19on what Jacob Rees Mogg was saying. How important is it to you as a

0:16:19 > 0:16:24rebel that the Government does put the date on.I agree with Jacob it

0:16:24 > 0:16:30is in the Article 50 process, the key reason it is important is the

0:16:30 > 0:16:34negotiations look like they're going to be tricky and longer than we

0:16:34 > 0:16:40expected and it may well be that we are still negotiating up until March

0:16:40 > 0:16:462019. We could have a short couple of weeks period of extension. Why do

0:16:46 > 0:16:50harm to the economy by falling out on a precise time? If those

0:16:50 > 0:16:54negotiations need to be extended. They won't go on for more than a

0:16:54 > 0:16:58couple of weeks, because there will be elections in Europe in June 2019

0:16:58 > 0:17:03and there is no chance of a new commission or Parliament dealing

0:17:03 > 0:17:10with this. Giving it flexibility and with this flexibility the government

0:17:10 > 0:17:13said it wants flexibility in negotiations, why give all the

0:17:13 > 0:17:19advantage to the other side? Part of that was evidenced yesterday by

0:17:19 > 0:17:23somebody suggesting they will ask for the Margaret Thatcher rebate to

0:17:23 > 0:17:28be suspended. That is as a result of putting the date on the bill.You

0:17:28 > 0:17:31did not agree with the Brexit committee and think it is important

0:17:31 > 0:17:36that we set the date and time?I think it is perfectly reasonable to

0:17:36 > 0:17:41set the date and time and I think these negotiations fill the time

0:17:41 > 0:17:46available. The United States and Australia agreed a free trade deal

0:17:46 > 0:17:52between April 2003 and February 2004. These things don't need to be

0:17:52 > 0:17:55interm Knabl if both sides want to agree. I think the British

0:17:55 > 0:18:01electorate would be very concerned if nearly three years after the vote

0:18:01 > 0:18:04to leave, we still hadn't left. I think most people expected that we

0:18:04 > 0:18:08would have left by now. The negotiations realistically to get

0:18:08 > 0:18:12through the approval of the European Parliament and so on need to be

0:18:12 > 0:18:17completed by at the end of next year, going up to the last minute I

0:18:17 > 0:18:22don't think is real is tick.To move on to talk about a trade deal and

0:18:22 > 0:18:28getting that done, the EU need to agree to move on and we need to

0:18:28 > 0:18:30settle the divorce, cabinet are going to be talking about the amount

0:18:30 > 0:18:37that needs to be spent on that, Stephen what manned, are you happy

0:18:37 > 0:18:42for the Government to offer more?I hope that the Government will stick

0:18:42 > 0:18:47to the Florence speech in terms of ensuring that we fulfil our

0:18:47 > 0:18:52liabilities and obligations. I'm not clear exactly whether that is 20

0:18:52 > 0:18:55billion or 40 billion and I'm not sure the government is. If part of

0:18:55 > 0:18:59the divorce bill is then some settlement for getting the trade

0:18:59 > 0:19:05deal, we will need to examine that carefully.Jacob Rees Mogg, is this

0:19:05 > 0:19:11that might spark another war in the party if the cabinet suggest they're

0:19:11 > 0:19:17prepared to pay more?I think we need to go back to what you said,

0:19:17 > 0:19:27that the - the EU said they want us to settle the money first. The

0:19:27 > 0:19:30Government doesn't need to follow that. They need our money. If we

0:19:30 > 0:19:38don't pay any money for the final 21 months of the framework, the EU has

0:19:38 > 0:19:44about 20 billion pounds gap in its finances and it has no legal

0:19:44 > 0:19:48requirement to borrow. So it insolvents or the Germans and the

0:19:48 > 0:19:52others pay more. So our position on money is very strong and we

0:19:52 > 0:19:56shouldn't fall into the trap of thinking just because Mr Barnier

0:19:56 > 0:20:02said it it is as if he has received tablets of stone like Moses, he has

0:20:02 > 0:20:10not.There is a sense that the Government feels a mo generous offer

0:20:10 > 0:20:14would set a good tone, the kind of approach that Jacob Rees Mogg

0:20:14 > 0:20:20suggests would not make for smooth relations.It probably wouldn't. But

0:20:20 > 0:20:24we have to be clear what we are paying for and what we are getting.

0:20:24 > 0:20:30No one is suggesting we should hand over money without proper scrutiny.

0:20:30 > 0:20:35It may be appropriate to put money to facilitate international trade to

0:20:35 > 0:20:40secure jobs. We have to be careful about the analysis about what the

0:20:40 > 0:20:46scale and size of Brexit dividend is and the size of payments will be.

0:20:46 > 0:20:52You mustn't confuse gross and net and there is disagreement about some

0:20:52 > 0:20:58of the numbers.On that, Jacob Rees Mogg in his budget for Brexit

0:20:58 > 0:21:04suggests in five years time we would have a 135 billion Brexit bonus. Do

0:21:04 > 0:21:10you think it is real is tick.He is using some analysis that has some

0:21:10 > 0:21:17flaws. It is predicting a price drop in the United Kingdom of 10%. Tariff

0:21:17 > 0:21:24drops will only be 3 or 4%. It is predicting huge productivity gains,

0:21:24 > 0:21:29the likes of which we have not seen in 20 years. Thirdly, despite his

0:21:29 > 0:21:34view on modellers there is evidence that they weren't and if you go into

0:21:34 > 0:21:41the detail of the analysis, some of the data is 14 years out of date.

0:21:41 > 0:21:46Jacob Rees Mogg, you're being hopelessly optimistic?I don't think

0:21:46 > 0:21:51that right. I think the fall in prices comes because you make the

0:21:51 > 0:21:56economy more competitive and you take away tariffs which reduces the

0:21:56 > 0:22:02price of food by 20%. That is a big reduction. Bear in mind that the

0:22:02 > 0:22:06biggest tariffs hit food, clothing and foot wear that, harm the poorest

0:22:06 > 0:22:13in society the most. The gains from productivity come from is in

0:22:13 > 0:22:21additional tariffs. Leading to other saving and further investment I

0:22:21 > 0:22:25think the modelling done by the professor is as good as modelling

0:22:25 > 0:22:31can be. That doesn't mean it is infallible. The failure of gravity

0:22:31 > 0:22:38model is well known.Michael Gove was accused of auditioning for the

0:22:38 > 0:22:45job of Chancellor by using long words. Do you know any good long

0:22:45 > 0:22:48economic words?I don't think that we want to get into this type of

0:22:48 > 0:22:52business actually. I think all Conservatives and Steven and I very

0:22:52 > 0:22:58much agree on this, want to show as united a front as we can manage.

0:22:58 > 0:23:02There are differences on some aspects of policy, but in terms of

0:23:02 > 0:23:05individuals we want to stand together and support the best

0:23:05 > 0:23:10interests of the government.Thank you.

0:23:10 > 0:23:12Brexit Secretary David Davis was in Berlin this week trying

0:23:12 > 0:23:15to win the support of business leaders there for a comprehensive

0:23:15 > 0:23:17free trade deal with the EU.

0:23:17 > 0:23:20He warned them against putting 'politics above prosperity'

0:23:20 > 0:23:24and reportedly got a bit of a frosty reception.

0:23:24 > 0:23:27Well, the former Labour MP Gisela Stuart was one of the leaders

0:23:27 > 0:23:29of the Vote Leave referendum campaign.

0:23:29 > 0:23:32We travelled with Gisela to Germany to meet the business leaders

0:23:32 > 0:23:35she says will help secure a good trade deal for the UK.

0:23:35 > 0:23:38Here's her film.

0:23:44 > 0:23:47I was born and brought up in this part of Germany,

0:23:47 > 0:23:51and although I've lived in the UK for the past 40 years,

0:23:51 > 0:23:55and represented the constituency of Birmingham and Edgbaston for 20

0:23:55 > 0:24:00years, my family still live here, and I've kept many links.

0:24:02 > 0:24:05I was chair of Vote Leave, and together with only a handful

0:24:05 > 0:24:08of other Labour MPs, we campaigned to leave

0:24:08 > 0:24:10the European Union because we thought the country would be

0:24:10 > 0:24:13better off outside.

0:24:13 > 0:24:16It's hard to remember now, but back in the 1970s, when we joined

0:24:16 > 0:24:19the European Economic Community, people thought that by joining

0:24:19 > 0:24:24the club we would see the kind of economic miracle Germany

0:24:24 > 0:24:27experienced in the '70s back home.

0:24:27 > 0:24:28The "Deutsche Wirtschaftswunder" would come to Britain.

0:24:28 > 0:24:33But, of course, it didn't.

0:24:36 > 0:24:39Within a few short years of the devastation of World War II,

0:24:39 > 0:24:41Germany had emerged as the largest economy in Europe.

0:24:41 > 0:24:43Germany's extraordinary success is down to

0:24:43 > 0:24:47the pragmatism of its business.

0:24:47 > 0:24:53German Mittelstand is family dominated, forward-thinking,

0:24:53 > 0:24:58long-term thinking, reliability, are very important values.

0:24:58 > 0:25:01Changing moods on a political landscape and changing frameworks

0:25:01 > 0:25:04are toxic for our way of doing business, and we want

0:25:04 > 0:25:11that to go away.

0:25:11 > 0:25:15German business is not given to making big political statements

0:25:15 > 0:25:18out of step with government policy, but talk to those in decision-making

0:25:18 > 0:25:22positions, and it is clear that they want to secure a good deal

0:25:22 > 0:25:25with the United Kingdom.

0:25:25 > 0:25:28BMW employs almost 90,000 people here in Germany,

0:25:28 > 0:25:32and exports just under 1 million cars annually.

0:25:32 > 0:25:36The UK is a vital market.

0:25:36 > 0:25:40What we are really seeking right now is more clarity, more certainty,

0:25:40 > 0:25:45because in our cycle of investment, cycle of development,

0:25:45 > 0:25:50it's about a seven-year or so period that we look at,

0:25:50 > 0:25:53but we are now, of course, starting to think about what comes next,

0:25:53 > 0:25:57and what we need to see now is what is going to be

0:25:57 > 0:25:59the trading relationship, how are the logistics going to look,

0:25:59 > 0:26:01what is going to be the requirements for people

0:26:01 > 0:26:04moving across the continent?

0:26:04 > 0:26:06Because all of these things are important to us today.

0:26:06 > 0:26:10And, by the way, they will be just as important tomorrow.

0:26:10 > 0:26:12Berlin is well aware that if the European Commission

0:26:12 > 0:26:17is allowed to put up trade barriers against Britain, it will be

0:26:17 > 0:26:18German business, German consumers and German employees

0:26:18 > 0:26:23who will suffer.

0:26:23 > 0:26:25TRANSLATION:I think it's very important that we complete

0:26:25 > 0:26:27the first phase successfully.

0:26:27 > 0:26:31The first phase of the negotiations, which looks at the financial

0:26:31 > 0:26:33consequences of Great Britain leaving the EU.

0:26:33 > 0:26:37And then it's not a question of punishment payments.

0:26:37 > 0:26:39It's about when you are part of a multilayer, contractual

0:26:39 > 0:26:43obligation and you want to leave that, then of course it takes

0:26:43 > 0:26:45a whole lot of obligations which you have to deal with,

0:26:45 > 0:26:55so both sides are satisfied and can live with the consequences.

0:26:55 > 0:26:59It isn't everyone's interests for the UK to part on good terms.

0:26:59 > 0:27:02Of course there was going to be upset when the UK voted to leave,

0:27:02 > 0:27:06but creating uncertainty over the terms of UK's exit will simply

0:27:06 > 0:27:11have a disruptive effect on exports to UK markets.

0:27:11 > 0:27:15Far better to have a sensible, amicable negotiation that results

0:27:15 > 0:27:17both sides being able to trade together and work

0:27:17 > 0:27:24together post-Brexit.

0:27:24 > 0:27:25Markus Krall is managing director of Goetzpartners,

0:27:25 > 0:27:27and heads the Financial Institution Industry Group.

0:27:27 > 0:27:32Is it true to say that, if we negotiate Brexit well,

0:27:32 > 0:27:34then a good Brexit can actually strengthen the United Kingdom,

0:27:34 > 0:27:36the European Union and Germany?

0:27:36 > 0:27:38It's absolutely true.

0:27:38 > 0:27:41I think that this is about two things.

0:27:41 > 0:27:46One, about proving that free trade is possible

0:27:46 > 0:27:49between a European Union that is smaller and a former member country.

0:27:49 > 0:27:53If you don't prove that free trade is possible there,

0:27:53 > 0:27:57then the question becomes, what is Europe standing for?

0:27:57 > 0:28:01Number two is, I also believe the free trade,

0:28:01 > 0:28:05free market and democratic and less bureaucratic approach that Britain

0:28:05 > 0:28:08has chosen as the path into the future is a role

0:28:08 > 0:28:11model for Europe.

0:28:11 > 0:28:14The time has come both for the United Kingdom

0:28:14 > 0:28:17and for the EU to be more clear about what kind of

0:28:17 > 0:28:19deal we can achieve.

0:28:19 > 0:28:21Both sides need to be bold.

0:28:21 > 0:28:24As long as we remain open to free trade and sensible co-operation,

0:28:24 > 0:28:30we can arrive at something that will benefit both sides.

0:28:30 > 0:28:33But one thing's obvious - if we are an open and free trading

0:28:33 > 0:28:36economy, we've got one big cheerleader on our side,

0:28:36 > 0:28:42and that is German business.

0:28:42 > 0:28:44That was Gisela Stuart setting out her case

0:28:44 > 0:28:45and we'll be hearing from the opposite side

0:28:45 > 0:28:47of the argument in the coming weeks.

0:28:47 > 0:28:50Gisela Stuart joins us in the studio now, as does Alastair Campbell.

0:28:50 > 0:28:53He used to work for Tony Blair in Number 10, set up

0:28:53 > 0:28:55the New European Newspaper to campaign against Brexit,

0:28:55 > 0:28:57and is so pro-European that at this year's Labour conference

0:28:57 > 0:29:00he was heard playing Ode to Joy on the bagpipes.

0:29:00 > 0:29:05Welcome both of you.

0:29:05 > 0:29:09We will start with your point in the film, that you think the German

0:29:09 > 0:29:14business once the EU to offer the UK a generous deal because it is in

0:29:14 > 0:29:18their interests, yet the president of the German equivalent of the CBI

0:29:18 > 0:29:23said that defending the single market must be the priority for the

0:29:23 > 0:29:29EU, and another says that the cohesion of the remaining member

0:29:29 > 0:29:36states remains the highest priority. The president of the CBI just after

0:29:36 > 0:29:41the referendum said that it would be in nobody 's interest to introduce

0:29:41 > 0:29:48tariffs and trade barriers. On the UK side, I don't think there's a

0:29:48 > 0:29:52full understanding that economic interests are incredibly important,

0:29:52 > 0:29:59that they are trying to cover economic interests on the cohesion

0:29:59 > 0:30:03of the 27. I think different economic interests will raise the

0:30:03 > 0:30:11head of different countries. The German auto industry is as important

0:30:11 > 0:30:17as the financial sector is here. The banking crisis is far from over, but

0:30:17 > 0:30:23the big riffs which were going on is that the E U is losing its second

0:30:23 > 0:30:27biggest net contributor. Countries like Germany want a deal with the UK

0:30:27 > 0:30:34that is a free open market. There are other tensions in the EU that

0:30:34 > 0:30:38wants to become more protectionist, and that is a bad thing.Looking at

0:30:38 > 0:30:46the film there with the Jacob Rees-Mogg interview. No matter what

0:30:46 > 0:30:51side of leave you are, it is delusional and all driven by wishful

0:30:51 > 0:30:56thinking. You could find a businessman who says Brexit will be

0:30:56 > 0:31:00good for Germany. The vast bulk of British businesses think this is a

0:31:00 > 0:31:04disaster, as do the vast bulk of European businesses. One of the

0:31:04 > 0:31:09delusions on which they ran their campaign is the idea that they need

0:31:09 > 0:31:15us more than we need them. That is not true.Be you self about £80

0:31:15 > 0:31:20billion more in goods and services into the UK than we do to them, and

0:31:20 > 0:31:24Germany has one of the biggest deficits. It is in their interest.

0:31:24 > 0:31:30Of course it is, but it is a myth that they need us more than we need

0:31:30 > 0:31:37them. The damage that will be done to us, even with a good deal. Let's

0:31:37 > 0:31:42be frank, where these negotiations are, Theresa May is either going to

0:31:42 > 0:31:49end up with a bad deal and dumber or no Deal. A bad deal is bad, and a no

0:31:49 > 0:31:56deal is a catastrophe.You are setting up ideas that which were not

0:31:56 > 0:32:03there to begin with and knocking them down. Delusional.35 billion,

0:32:03 > 0:32:08the Brexit bonus.If we had a referendum, it was a democratic

0:32:08 > 0:32:11decision. I know you don't like it and that a lot of business would

0:32:11 > 0:32:17have preferred to stay with the status quo. We have had the

0:32:17 > 0:32:21referendum. Undermining political institutions is in no one's

0:32:21 > 0:32:27interests. It is functioning democracies which lead to economic

0:32:27 > 0:32:34stability.Theresa May fought an election Inc on a hard Brexit that

0:32:34 > 0:32:48was rejected.As we heard from BMW, there is uncertainty for business.

0:32:48 > 0:32:52There will be elections, European elections, in 2019. There will be a

0:32:52 > 0:32:57change of the Commission and the parliament. We have a narrow window

0:32:57 > 0:33:01to implement the mandate for the referendum which Parliament voted

0:33:01 > 0:33:08for. So rather than you undermining this country, why don't you work

0:33:08 > 0:33:12together to get the best deal? Because we totally disagree.You

0:33:12 > 0:33:19don't want a good deal?I'm in favour of a good deal, and I could

0:33:19 > 0:33:24give them some advice as to how they get a good deal. First, you have a

0:33:24 > 0:33:30cabinet that has an agreed strategy. 18 months in, they don't have that.

0:33:30 > 0:33:35I am not undermining a deal. I am continuing to pose questions about

0:33:35 > 0:33:41what they are trying to do and how they are trying to do it. This is

0:33:41 > 0:33:46democracy. Democracy is the ability for Parliament, which is not doing

0:33:46 > 0:33:50its job properly, and the public, to keep scrutinising, and if they want

0:33:50 > 0:33:57to change their mind, having the right to do that.You were trying to

0:33:57 > 0:34:01encourage the Taoiseach yesterday to play hardball with the UK.I am on

0:34:01 > 0:34:07the side of the UK, and I am worried that if we go down the path that we

0:34:07 > 0:34:11are being taken down, and Theresa May and Boris Johnson and the rest

0:34:11 > 0:34:16of them, this shambolic path, we are going to do fundamental, lasting

0:34:16 > 0:34:21damage to the country we love. I don't care about the Civil Aviation

0:34:21 > 0:34:27Authority. I care about Britain. -- I don't care about the European

0:34:27 > 0:34:35Union. If every lorry going into the UK today was stopped for just two

0:34:35 > 0:34:41minutes, we would create an instant 17 mile traffic jam. These people

0:34:41 > 0:34:51just don't care...I am not these people! Let us not conflate... You

0:34:51 > 0:34:55either decide that you are implementing a democratic decision

0:34:55 > 0:35:01of a referendum that was called and over 17 million voted.You will not

0:35:01 > 0:35:09stop me debating it. Just as Nigel Farage...Stop talking about Nigel

0:35:09 > 0:35:20Farrell Raj. Vote Leave was not Nigel Farage. There is no desire in

0:35:20 > 0:35:25Germany to punish the United Kingdom.They are behaving

0:35:25 > 0:35:30reasonably.There is a battle of protectionism and free market going

0:35:30 > 0:35:36on. If we implement this properly, give businesses the kind of

0:35:36 > 0:35:42incentives they want, we can get a good deal. So you want a bad deal?

0:35:42 > 0:35:48You are driven by wishful thinking. Gisela Stuart, you are saying that

0:35:48 > 0:35:52business will intervene to prevent things like tariffs being put in

0:35:52 > 0:35:57place? They are leaving it a bit late to put pressure on.You will

0:35:57 > 0:36:00find that business is laying out the kind of things they need to get

0:36:00 > 0:36:05those deals. I can find as much fault with the speed of the

0:36:05 > 0:36:10progress, but what I really do resent is that you are actually

0:36:10 > 0:36:18encouraging other countries to undermine...Know I am not! I spoke

0:36:18 > 0:36:22out in support of the Irish Taoiseach because I spent a lot of

0:36:22 > 0:36:25time with Tony Blair and his team on the Good Friday Agreement. The

0:36:25 > 0:36:29people who are driving this hard Brexit without thinking it through,

0:36:29 > 0:36:35still no answer on how you do Brexit in our island without a hard border.

0:36:35 > 0:36:43I think the Irish Taoiseach is right to call out the government on the

0:36:43 > 0:36:47incompetence and the fact they have not thought it through.You accept

0:36:47 > 0:36:53the result of the referendum and the fact that we will be leaving the EU?

0:36:53 > 0:36:58I accept the result of the referendum, but I do not accept that

0:36:58 > 0:37:02the country will definitely leave, because the country is entitled to

0:37:02 > 0:37:07change its mind. As the chaos and costs mount, the public is entitled

0:37:07 > 0:37:13to change its mind and will change its mind.There is no evidence at

0:37:13 > 0:37:21the moment.Come out with me!Allow me to finish the sentence. There is

0:37:21 > 0:37:27a changing of mind happening, a crystallisation. Unlike you, I have

0:37:27 > 0:37:33fought five elections and I have won five elections. I have probably

0:37:33 > 0:37:38spoken to more people like you.You may do, I'm just saying, come out on

0:37:38 > 0:37:44the road with me...40% of the population in the middle just want

0:37:44 > 0:37:46us to get on with

0:37:46 > 0:37:48population in the middle just want us to get on with it. What that film

0:37:48 > 0:37:54showed is that if you want to make it a self-fulfilling prophecy that

0:37:54 > 0:37:57it's a disaster, which I don't. I

0:37:57 > 0:37:58it a self-fulfilling prophecy that want to implement a deal that is

0:37:58 > 0:38:03good for British jobs. The rest of

0:38:03 > 0:38:10want to implement a deal that is the world is changing in terms

0:38:10 > 0:38:10want to implement a deal that is technology. Currently, Germany

0:38:10 > 0:38:13hasn't even got a government, and

0:38:13 > 0:38:15technology. Currently, Germany nobody is laughing about that.And

0:38:15 > 0:38:17they are stable without a

0:38:17 > 0:38:20nobody is laughing about that.And government!Let's leave it there.

0:38:20 > 0:38:22It's coming up to 11.40, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

0:38:22 > 0:38:25Coming up on the programme, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

0:38:25 > 0:38:28opinion polls and we'll bring you the results of our moodbox

0:38:28 > 0:38:30asking whether Phllip Hammond or John McDonnell should be running

0:38:37 > 0:38:38I'm Nina Warhurst.

0:38:38 > 0:38:40Coming up in the Northwest...

0:38:40 > 0:38:41Freedom of movement.

0:38:41 > 0:38:44There's plenty in these feet, what about post Brexit?

0:38:44 > 0:38:47Why the region's Irish aren't all doing a jig.

0:38:47 > 0:38:50Everybody is just feeling, I suppose, a little bit anxious

0:38:50 > 0:38:52at the moment as to really what is going to

0:38:52 > 0:38:57happen for the Irish, both at home and here in the UK.

0:38:57 > 0:38:59Together in the studio, but not necessarily in step

0:38:59 > 0:39:01are this week's guests...

0:39:01 > 0:39:04Damien Moore is the Conservative MP for Southport.

0:39:04 > 0:39:06Cat Smith the Labour MP for Lancaster and Fleetwood and Shadow

0:39:06 > 0:39:10Minister for Voter Engagement and Youth Affairs, a very long title.

0:39:10 > 0:39:12Welcome to you both.

0:39:12 > 0:39:17We start today with Ivan Lewis because he is a

0:39:17 > 0:39:19contender to be Labour's mayoral candidate, now

0:39:19 > 0:39:22stood down from Andy Burnham's team after the Labour Party said it was

0:39:22 > 0:39:25investigating an allegation of sexual harassment.

0:39:25 > 0:39:28Mr Lewis has apologised, saying he is sorry if he

0:39:28 > 0:39:31has made women feel uncomfortable.

0:39:31 > 0:39:34Cat, do we celebrate that this enters the public domain and

0:39:34 > 0:39:37arguably encourages alleged victims to come forward or is Ivan entitled

0:39:37 > 0:39:40to some privacy while the investigation is ongoing?

0:39:40 > 0:39:43Well, I think that it is good that it is

0:39:43 > 0:39:44being talked about now.

0:39:44 > 0:39:46I think for a long time, there has been

0:39:46 > 0:39:49behaviour going on which has been unacceptable and I think that what

0:39:49 > 0:39:52we have seen actually is because one woman spoke up, another woman

0:39:52 > 0:39:53spoke up.

0:39:53 > 0:39:56And what we have seen is a sort of snowballing effect of people

0:39:56 > 0:40:01feeling brave enough to speak out, really, about the kind of behaviour,

0:40:01 > 0:40:04which is totally unacceptable.

0:40:04 > 0:40:08The Labour Party put in a new process

0:40:08 > 0:40:13back in July about sexual harassment in the Labour Party.

0:40:13 > 0:40:15There is obviously an ongoing process now for

0:40:15 > 0:40:18Ivan, but I would encourage anybody who feels that they have been

0:40:18 > 0:40:21treated inappropriately by anyone in a position of power to speak out.

0:40:21 > 0:40:22Damien, your thoughts.

0:40:22 > 0:40:23Absolutely.

0:40:23 > 0:40:25Every single one of these cases should be investigated thoroughly

0:40:25 > 0:40:29and fairly and people should not feel afraid to speak out if anything

0:40:29 > 0:40:30inappropriate has happened.

0:40:30 > 0:40:34I think it is absolutely right and proper

0:40:34 > 0:40:36that we follow thorough and fair processes in dealing with these.

0:40:36 > 0:40:38We await the outcome of the investigation.

0:40:38 > 0:40:40Ivan Lewis, of course, denies the allegations.

0:40:40 > 0:40:43Next, do you think that Cat and Damien have enough power?

0:40:43 > 0:40:46No answers on a postcard this time, please.

0:40:46 > 0:40:50Damien's Merseyside has an elected mayor, Cat's Lancaster doesn't.

0:40:50 > 0:40:55That means that Merseyside along with Holton has been trusted

0:40:55 > 0:40:57That means that Merseyside along with Halton has been trusted

0:40:58 > 0:40:59with more regional decision-making.

0:40:59 > 0:41:00So is that enough?

0:41:00 > 0:41:03Or do these two and their colleagues have too much power in Westminster?

0:41:03 > 0:41:05A question we put to all of our MPs.

0:41:05 > 0:41:09The clashes started way back with those naughty Normans

0:41:09 > 0:41:11compiling their doomsday book and London started

0:41:11 > 0:41:13keeping track of everything.

0:41:13 > 0:41:15Some say the North has an falling to its

0:41:15 > 0:41:17powers ever since.

0:41:17 > 0:41:19On his old turf at the treasury, now Andy Burnham

0:41:19 > 0:41:22has his own battle cry.

0:41:22 > 0:41:23It's definitely time for change.

0:41:23 > 0:41:26It is why I have personally made a change

0:41:26 > 0:41:28by kind of saying, "Thanks for the memories, but I'm

0:41:28 > 0:41:29leaving you behind."

0:41:29 > 0:41:30"I'm off." "I'm going."

0:41:30 > 0:41:32Here, it was a daily struggle he said to get

0:41:33 > 0:41:34the North on the agenda.

0:41:34 > 0:41:36Like when they were deciding where it to

0:41:36 > 0:41:39invest in top medical research centres.

0:41:39 > 0:41:41The list was Oxford, Cambridge and three universities

0:41:41 > 0:41:42in London.

0:41:42 > 0:41:44And I said, "No, what about Manchester?"

0:41:44 > 0:41:54And I got all of this stuff back about when Manchester

0:41:56 > 0:41:58-why Manchester wasn't good enough.

0:41:58 > 0:42:00I went through it and eventually we disproved it

0:42:00 > 0:42:02and Manchester in the end was given that status,

0:42:02 > 0:42:05but the system isn't naturally built a favour our part of the world.

0:42:05 > 0:42:08It's just not in the mindset? No, it is not in the mindset.

0:42:08 > 0:42:10It's not deliberately rigged, though, is it?

0:42:10 > 0:42:12It's not as if there is a conscious effort to

0:42:12 > 0:42:14neglect the North. So what is behind it?

0:42:14 > 0:42:16Maybe there's a snobbery, I don't know.

0:42:16 > 0:42:18The people in this building live largely within the M25.

0:42:18 > 0:42:21You might say God bless America where each state can raise and keep

0:42:21 > 0:42:22their own taxes.

0:42:22 > 0:42:25Or here in Germany, where individual states can even set

0:42:25 > 0:42:26some of their own laws.

0:42:26 > 0:42:30Here in Britain, tradition prevails and

0:42:30 > 0:42:33everything from whether we take military action abroad to how much

0:42:33 > 0:42:36your council is given to provide services like bin collections,

0:42:36 > 0:42:39all of those decisions are taken here

0:42:39 > 0:42:43in this building or in the streets surrounding it.

0:42:43 > 0:42:46We asked our 72 MPs...

0:42:49 > 0:42:50Of the 40 who responded, 70% said yes, 15%

0:42:50 > 0:42:54Of the 40 who responded, 70% said yes, 15%

0:42:54 > 0:42:57said no, the same say they didn't know.

0:42:57 > 0:43:00Suggestions for change mostly came from Labour MPs and included a

0:43:00 > 0:43:04wider regional assembly beyond city devolution, but almost all

0:43:04 > 0:43:06Conservatives said change isn't needed.

0:43:07 > 0:43:10Off the record, one told us...

0:43:10 > 0:43:13Another said...

0:43:13 > 0:43:17And a third set hang on...

0:43:17 > 0:43:21And some experts agree progress is moving nicely.

0:43:21 > 0:43:23I think the ball is rolling now for a

0:43:23 > 0:43:25number of different reasons.

0:43:25 > 0:43:27City regional mayors were a product of

0:43:27 > 0:43:31Tony Blair and David Cameron and George Osborne.

0:43:31 > 0:43:33They are no longer in power, but the momentum created

0:43:33 > 0:43:36by their interests are still with us.

0:43:36 > 0:43:37But momentum is not enough.

0:43:37 > 0:43:40For the mayor who once had an eye on Downing

0:43:40 > 0:43:42Street, but now says Manchester's Oxford Street

0:43:42 > 0:43:45is far more important.

0:43:45 > 0:43:47Damien, the message couldn't be clearer from our MPs.

0:43:47 > 0:43:4970% say, "All right, enough is enough.

0:43:49 > 0:43:51"Westminster is taking advantage of the North.

0:43:51 > 0:43:54"Things desperately need to change and quick."

0:43:54 > 0:43:56Well, historically, we have had a much more centralised

0:43:56 > 0:43:58system than most European countries.

0:43:58 > 0:44:01And that is just part of our history and tradition.

0:44:01 > 0:44:07One of the differences now, of course, is that

0:44:07 > 0:44:09we are getting the city regional mayors.

0:44:09 > 0:44:11Manchester and Liverpool both have those where they have got

0:44:11 > 0:44:14the ability to have much more of a say in the affairs

0:44:14 > 0:44:15of both of those areas.

0:44:15 > 0:44:18MPs like Louise Ellman, one of your neighbours, thinks actually

0:44:18 > 0:44:20it just leads to a patchwork north of England.

0:44:20 > 0:44:21Cat doesn't have a mayor.

0:44:21 > 0:44:22You do.

0:44:22 > 0:44:24Speaking on behalf of the North, is that going

0:44:24 > 0:44:26to lead to greater powers up here?

0:44:26 > 0:44:28I think it is not as simple as that.

0:44:28 > 0:44:30I think it should be a bigger part of

0:44:30 > 0:44:32a package of local government reforms.

0:44:32 > 0:44:34My personal view on that.

0:44:34 > 0:44:37I think local government is long overdue for reforms to actually see

0:44:37 > 0:44:40areas that feel as though they can work in a cohesive way together.

0:44:40 > 0:44:41So what would that mean?

0:44:41 > 0:44:44Under local councils having more devolved powers?

0:44:44 > 0:44:46I think we need to move more into a single-tier authority

0:44:46 > 0:44:52structure whereby people feel as though they can work together

0:44:52 > 0:44:54as part of that area.

0:44:54 > 0:44:59I think that we are seeing in some of those areas

0:44:59 > 0:45:01some positivity about the potential that is there.

0:45:01 > 0:45:03We will see further powers potentially being devolved

0:45:03 > 0:45:04down the line.

0:45:04 > 0:45:07I think some people would view Damien's comments about

0:45:07 > 0:45:09moving to a single-tier Council as power being removed further away

0:45:09 > 0:45:10from them.

0:45:10 > 0:45:15If we were to lose districts and potentially parish

0:45:15 > 0:45:16councils and move...

0:45:16 > 0:45:19A lot of people would see that as power being

0:45:19 > 0:45:20shifted from where they live.

0:45:20 > 0:45:24I think it is very difficult especially here in the northwest

0:45:24 > 0:45:29where we've had a very patchwork approach to the dissolution.

0:45:29 > 0:45:35As you said, I don't have a mayor in Lancashire

0:45:35 > 0:45:36whereas Damien on Merseyside does. have a mayor in Lancashire

0:45:36 > 0:45:38And the power and the money that come with

0:45:38 > 0:45:40that benefits the big urban areas.

0:45:40 > 0:45:42Whereas those of us were outside the Liverpool...

0:45:42 > 0:45:44But you would rather have a Northwest assembly.

0:45:44 > 0:45:45Is that not the same thing?

0:45:45 > 0:45:48I think it is something you could view as in addition to the

0:45:48 > 0:45:50district councils that we have.

0:45:50 > 0:45:51Lose the mayors?

0:45:51 > 0:45:52Would you like to lose the mayors?

0:45:52 > 0:45:55I don't think the mayors particularly add to it.

0:45:55 > 0:45:57I don't think we should have to accept

0:45:57 > 0:45:59a mayor in order to get the resources, in order to get

0:45:59 > 0:46:01devolution.

0:46:01 > 0:46:03So you would undo the current devolution deal and you

0:46:03 > 0:46:04would have a Northwest assembly?

0:46:04 > 0:46:06Now we have ended up in such a messy position

0:46:06 > 0:46:08where even Manchester in

0:46:08 > 0:46:10and Merseyside have very different deals from each other.

0:46:10 > 0:46:11It is very messy.

0:46:11 > 0:46:12That's the point, isn't it?

0:46:12 > 0:46:14The government didn't have a plan B for

0:46:14 > 0:46:17areas like Lancashire that can come up with a devolution deal.

0:46:17 > 0:46:18Well, let's look at the situation.

0:46:18 > 0:46:20If you want to in Lancashire where the

0:46:20 > 0:46:23proposal was to have a combined authority and areas within that

0:46:23 > 0:46:25combined authority didn't feel as though they could work together.

0:46:25 > 0:46:27And there has to be agreement from all

0:46:27 > 0:46:32the parts of the area where they feel they can work together.

0:46:32 > 0:46:35Is it right that the government then distances itself from responsibility

0:46:35 > 0:46:36and allows parts of the North to

0:46:36 > 0:46:39move forward while others don't have a devolution deal together?

0:46:39 > 0:46:41Where you can get agreement where people

0:46:41 > 0:46:44do feel as though they can work together, it is absolutely right and

0:46:44 > 0:46:46proper.

0:46:46 > 0:46:56Where they cannot, that honestly cannot happen because it

0:46:56 > 0:46:58work together into the same area.

0:46:58 > 0:47:00-- do not feel as though they can work

0:47:00 > 0:47:01together shoehorned into the same area.

0:47:01 > 0:47:04We have a little bit of that in my own area where people are

0:47:04 > 0:47:08wanting to actually get out of, not of the city region in particular,

0:47:08 > 0:47:09but certainly out of the local council.

0:47:09 > 0:47:11Damien, when we talk about it in County blocks.

0:47:11 > 0:47:14So for instance, we are talking about Lancaster now, but

0:47:14 > 0:47:15what about Cumbria?

0:47:15 > 0:47:17Again, they haven't got a devolution deal.

0:47:17 > 0:47:19Whereas certainly part of my constituency and the Lancaster end

0:47:19 > 0:47:22of my constituency has very close economic ties with South Lakeland

0:47:22 > 0:47:24and Brough but because they fall Cumbria, we cannot get an answer

0:47:24 > 0:47:27from Greg Clark as to whether or not we can

0:47:27 > 0:47:28get a devolution deal that

0:47:28 > 0:47:30could potentially cross between two county boundaries.

0:47:30 > 0:47:32I would like to see more open-minded thinking.

0:47:32 > 0:47:34I would like to be a bit more creative

0:47:34 > 0:47:35about this.

0:47:35 > 0:47:37And work on where people are actually living, working and

0:47:37 > 0:47:38doing business.

0:47:38 > 0:47:40A very quick one from both of you.

0:47:40 > 0:47:42It has been suggested to bring Parliament to Liverpool.

0:47:42 > 0:47:43Yes or no?

0:47:43 > 0:47:46Well, we have to move out for those renovation

0:47:46 > 0:47:48works, so why not have a road show?

0:47:48 > 0:47:50We could tour the whole of the United Kingdom.

0:47:50 > 0:47:52After all, we are a part of the whole of the United

0:47:53 > 0:47:54Kingdom.

0:47:54 > 0:47:55Just the Northwest.

0:47:55 > 0:47:59One of those tasks with changing the balance of power

0:47:59 > 0:48:01is Steve Rotheram, the Labour mayor of the Liverpool

0:48:01 > 0:48:02city region.

0:48:02 > 0:48:04Six months after his election, this week he announced his

0:48:04 > 0:48:08vision for Merseyside and Halton.

0:48:08 > 0:48:10Now that vision includes harnessing the power

0:48:10 > 0:48:11of the Mersey to create renewable energy.

0:48:11 > 0:48:14He also wants to build on existing science and innovation in

0:48:14 > 0:48:19places like darts.

0:48:19 > 0:48:21to create the digital capital of the UK.

0:48:21 > 0:48:25And he has a promise on new homes, 25,000 new ones over the past

0:48:25 > 0:48:26five years.

0:48:26 > 0:48:27All of them on Brownfield sites.

0:48:27 > 0:48:30And what did you make of Steve's vision for 2025?

0:48:30 > 0:48:34He wanted us to step into the future were

0:48:34 > 0:48:35have become this utopia.

0:48:35 > 0:48:36Realistic?

0:48:36 > 0:48:39Well I have had meetings with Steve Rogheram and he

0:48:39 > 0:48:41is very enthusiastic and positive about what the city region can

0:48:41 > 0:48:42offer.

0:48:42 > 0:48:49To go back to our earlier conversation, I think one of the

0:48:49 > 0:48:52issues is that people feel distanced from power

0:48:52 > 0:48:53and certainly being on

0:48:53 > 0:48:56the very periphery of Merseyside our people are saying to me what are we

0:48:56 > 0:48:58going to get out of it?

0:48:58 > 0:49:00Is it all going to be centred in Liverpool?

0:49:00 > 0:49:02Exactly, the Southport feel included in the Liverpool city region?

0:49:02 > 0:49:04Because there was resistance when it came into being.

0:49:04 > 0:49:05Are they buying into it?

0:49:05 > 0:49:08Greater Manchester, it has taken 20 years for it to...

0:49:08 > 0:49:09I think there is natural apprehension.

0:49:09 > 0:49:13I've just been to a economic forum this

0:49:13 > 0:49:15morning where that has been explained to people there talking

0:49:15 > 0:49:16about the advantages and benefits.

0:49:16 > 0:49:19And I obviously work in the interest of my constituents to

0:49:19 > 0:49:22ensure that we can get people coming in the business economy and

0:49:22 > 0:49:24investment.

0:49:24 > 0:49:26We just had £2 million being put into

0:49:26 > 0:49:30one of our local hotels, which has just had the award of the best hotel

0:49:30 > 0:49:31in Merseyside.

0:49:31 > 0:49:34I think that is great news for my local constituents.

0:49:34 > 0:49:36We will all be there on our hoverboards

0:49:36 > 0:49:39looking at the Mersey barrier in ten years, won't we?

0:49:39 > 0:49:41Around three quarters of people in Steve

0:49:41 > 0:49:42Rotheram's Liverpool have Irish heritage.

0:49:42 > 0:49:45It is thought that that figure across the region is about

0:49:45 > 0:49:46one in four.

0:49:46 > 0:49:49Now, we also trade more with Ireland than any other part of

0:49:49 > 0:49:51the country does.

0:49:51 > 0:49:54And as Brexit negotiations continue, there is

0:49:54 > 0:49:56growing anxiety about how relationships could change.

0:49:56 > 0:49:58As Kevin Fitzpatrick reports.

0:50:07 > 0:50:10Whether they came to escape the potato famine or dig the ship

0:50:10 > 0:50:12canal and fire the Industrial Revolution, Irish migrants have

0:50:12 > 0:50:14helped make the Northwest what it is today.

0:50:14 > 0:50:17The Irish have absolutely been central to the -- the Irish

0:50:17 > 0:50:19have actually been really central to the economics,

0:50:19 > 0:50:20social and cultural infrastructure of the North.

0:50:20 > 0:50:22They have worked on the railways, on the

0:50:22 > 0:50:24canals, new construction, in health and education.

0:50:24 > 0:50:26We have the fourth-largest group of workers in the NHS.

0:50:26 > 0:50:33Lift, two, three. Keep to the music...

0:50:33 > 0:50:35With the South remaining in the European Union, and the UK

0:50:35 > 0:50:38including the North on their way out, the future is far from certain.

0:50:38 > 0:50:40Originally from Dublin, they made their home

0:50:40 > 0:50:43in Liverpool in 2001.

0:50:43 > 0:50:47Nobody seems to know, nobody has the answers to any questions.

0:50:47 > 0:50:49Everybody is just failing, I suppose, a little

0:50:49 > 0:50:51anxious at the moment as to really what is

0:50:51 > 0:50:53going to happen for the

0:50:53 > 0:50:55Irish, both at home and here in the UK.

0:50:55 > 0:50:58What you are looking at here in this warehouse is actually a billion

0:50:58 > 0:51:01individual screws.

0:51:01 > 0:51:03The possibility of no exit deal being

0:51:03 > 0:51:07agreed means free trade across the Irish Sea could end.

0:51:07 > 0:51:10That accounts for 10% of business at this company.

0:51:10 > 0:51:14I remain confident of a positive outcome, simply because both sides

0:51:14 > 0:51:17share the same objective, which is an invisible

0:51:17 > 0:51:23frictionless border, but worst-case scenario, if we do

0:51:23 > 0:51:29end up with let's call it a hard border and the tariffs that go with

0:51:29 > 0:51:32that, it is a logistical step, and extra logistical step for our

0:51:32 > 0:51:35business, which I believe, we can manage.

0:51:35 > 0:51:40It is the number of components involved in finding an

0:51:40 > 0:51:43agreement on Ireland that make it such a challenge for Brexit

0:51:43 > 0:51:44negotiators.

0:51:44 > 0:51:46They have to find solutions on trade, on people and

0:51:46 > 0:51:48crucially on the border between North and South.

0:51:48 > 0:51:49And time is pressing.

0:51:49 > 0:51:52You can't sort out the issue of the border without sorting

0:51:52 > 0:51:55out the nature of the trade deal first.

0:51:55 > 0:51:58We need to know where there are going to be tariffs on goods

0:51:58 > 0:52:00travelling between the UK and Ireland.

0:52:00 > 0:52:04Once we know that, we can sort out the issue of the border.

0:52:04 > 0:52:07But if there are tariffs on goods going across the border, then

0:52:07 > 0:52:09frankly, there will be a reinvigorated border and that is

0:52:10 > 0:52:12hugely politically sensitive.

0:52:12 > 0:52:15The Manchester bomb in 1996 was the largest on the mainland

0:52:15 > 0:52:20in the whole of the Troubles.

0:52:20 > 0:52:22For many who left that conflict behind to settle here,

0:52:22 > 0:52:25a return of barriers between North and South is a big worry.

0:52:25 > 0:52:28It will take us back 30 years, 40 years.

0:52:28 > 0:52:30And I think we will be back to where we

0:52:30 > 0:52:32were and it would have political repercussions as well.

0:52:32 > 0:52:34Once the barge is clear at the centre, the

0:52:35 > 0:52:36gates are closed.

0:52:36 > 0:52:39Bridging the gap on the size of the Brexit divorce

0:52:39 > 0:52:42bill may still be dominating negotiations, but it is cleared the

0:52:42 > 0:52:45future of the UK's relationship with Ireland will be just

0:52:45 > 0:52:48as difficult an issue to solve.

0:52:48 > 0:52:51What struck me about Kevin's piece is we talk all the time about the

0:52:51 > 0:52:53economic impact.

0:52:53 > 0:52:55It is that emotional, cultural impact for families.

0:52:55 > 0:52:56Just across the water.

0:52:56 > 0:52:57You've got Irish heritage, I've got Irish

0:52:57 > 0:52:59heritage, most people in the

0:52:59 > 0:53:04Northwest or a big proportion of people in the Northwest have.

0:53:04 > 0:53:05Is it a responsibility, then, Damien,

0:53:05 > 0:53:08for the government to just crack on and let people know where they

0:53:08 > 0:53:09stand?

0:53:09 > 0:53:12I think it is important that the government does crack on with

0:53:12 > 0:53:14these negotiations and actually make sure

0:53:14 > 0:53:15that we do protect the

0:53:15 > 0:53:20situation we've got there at the moment.

0:53:20 > 0:53:23We need to ensure that all the principles of the

0:53:23 > 0:53:24We need to ensure that all the principles of the Belfast agreement

0:53:24 > 0:53:28are upheld. We have to make sure that we have a soft border and not a

0:53:28 > 0:53:31hard border. Also when you think about negotiations with direct

0:53:31 > 0:53:37clinic Ireland. This thing going on a long time.But this does talk the

0:53:37 > 0:53:43fire. The EU says without offering more money, we can't entertain

0:53:43 > 0:53:49talking about border. The David Davis just have to say OK let's just

0:53:49 > 0:53:54give more money?That is part of the negotiations we're going into. We

0:53:54 > 0:53:58said we will pay what is right and proportionate fair. I think that is

0:53:58 > 0:54:03the right way of getting what we need from the situation with the

0:54:03 > 0:54:05Irish border.Even if it leaves families feeling vulnerable feeling

0:54:05 > 0:54:12that their futures are ambiguous?I think we have been in situations

0:54:12 > 0:54:15where you have felt horrible but then the reassurance does come. I

0:54:15 > 0:54:20think we now need to tackle this issue. It is very important

0:54:20 > 0:54:22particulate to this country and particularly those with that

0:54:22 > 0:54:32heritage.It was also said that it was flatly not going to entertain no

0:54:32 > 0:54:38deal.If we have no deal, that means by default we have a hard border.

0:54:38 > 0:54:44Just as Damon has just mention it is totally unacceptable for all sides.

0:54:44 > 0:54:50So it's not really an option. If no deal is not an obsidian, then it is

0:54:50 > 0:54:55free to the Mac market for you to demand whatever you want.I think it

0:54:55 > 0:54:59is obvious that no deal is not an option. When we look at the

0:54:59 > 0:55:04situation in Northern Ireland in particular, where you can travel

0:55:04 > 0:55:10between the two, other than roadsides changing, there is no

0:55:10 > 0:55:14difference. But it is so... I can't stress enough how delicate the

0:55:14 > 0:55:20situation is. And how important it is. Not just for Northern Ireland,

0:55:20 > 0:55:23but for the rest of the United Kingdom and the Republic of Ireland.

0:55:23 > 0:55:29Very quickly.We could get this right for the EU as well. The EU has

0:55:29 > 0:55:34got to show it self to be accommodating to the Irish Republic.

0:55:34 > 0:55:43We have to move on from Brexit to the budget. Teachers are heading to

0:55:43 > 0:55:47Downing Street handing them a letter asking for more money. They are

0:55:47 > 0:55:50saying that they have to make desperate requests from parents for

0:55:50 > 0:55:59voluntary donations. On a not to Mac on their list are to just leaving

0:55:59 > 0:56:01the profession. The Education Secretary has been to the northwest

0:56:01 > 0:56:10to launch a training scheme to help to stop them. We have a report.

0:56:10 > 0:56:19Preparing for GCSE ease wood this is a new scheme to help teachers as

0:56:19 > 0:56:25well.We have looked at the impact of on-the-job training for them.We

0:56:25 > 0:56:31want to mirror that. The Education Secretary was at the launch. It is a

0:56:31 > 0:56:35specialist graduate school that will offer courses for teachers, trading

0:56:35 > 0:56:39on the job as they take classes. One of six organisations sharing almost

0:56:39 > 0:56:45£70 million of government money to support and train teachers.We give

0:56:45 > 0:56:48teachers great training, not only do they get better in the classroom,

0:56:48 > 0:56:53they get better year on year on year. They are happier and they stay

0:56:53 > 0:56:59in their jobs for longer.That is crucial. Because a recent report

0:56:59 > 0:57:03showed more teachers are now leaving before retirement than five years

0:57:03 > 0:57:08ago. Schools are finding it tougher to fill posts. Are they going to

0:57:08 > 0:57:11feel valued if they get these new qualifications are they going to get

0:57:11 > 0:57:15the pay rise to go with it?We're going to make sure that teachers

0:57:15 > 0:57:19that are doing these sorts of courses doing the qualifications

0:57:19 > 0:57:25absolutely get the recognition.It comes as the funding of schools in

0:57:25 > 0:57:28England are going big changes. And claims that many schools are

0:57:28 > 0:57:28England are going big changes. And claims that many schools are

0:57:28 > 0:57:33struggling to meet their costs. The government has promised more money.

0:57:33 > 0:57:40But the Labour Party and others say that funding will fall once

0:57:40 > 0:57:41But the Labour Party and others say that funding will fall once

0:57:41 > 0:57:47inflation is taken into account. It is warned that counties with the

0:57:47 > 0:57:51worst scores will be hit with funding cuts. They want to leave

0:57:51 > 0:57:58because of the growing pressure, funding cuts and growing pupils.I

0:57:58 > 0:58:02think it is important whatever that is happening around our schools and

0:58:02 > 0:58:05there is record funding going into our schools at the moment, we invest

0:58:05 > 0:58:12in lifting up the teaching profession.So as the pressure on

0:58:12 > 0:58:22teacher grows, it is tempting -- is training the way to go?There needs

0:58:22 > 0:58:26to be a clear pathway to get better and master what happens in the

0:58:26 > 0:58:32classroom.If extra support makes teachers feel more valued, it is

0:58:32 > 0:58:37hoped that will slow the flow of teachers from the profession and

0:58:37 > 0:58:43increase the quality of education for students and teachers. We know

0:58:43 > 0:58:47what the Labour Party would do. They are calling for more money. He is

0:58:47 > 0:58:54not frightened of borrowing more money. How will that wash?We have

0:58:54 > 0:59:00seen Philip Hammond Barro more in his first year than any other

0:59:00 > 0:59:07Chancellor has done before. But the reality is our public services are

0:59:07 > 0:59:12in crisis. And teachers are voting with their feet. They are dealing in

0:59:12 > 0:59:16greater numbers. The impact that is having on our children's future and

0:59:16 > 0:59:22the UK economy of course is going to be disastrous.If you want to be the

0:59:22 > 0:59:27government, that is a very hard sell, extra debt for the swing seat.

0:59:27 > 0:59:31I think people want good schools. They don't want headlines like we've

0:59:31 > 0:59:35seen this week were teachers have written home to parents asking them

0:59:35 > 0:59:39to be able to bring in money so they can buy pens and paper and glue for

0:59:39 > 0:59:47schoolchildren.This is a good point, isn't it Damien, not having

0:59:47 > 0:59:57enough money.The budget will go up by 2019.Rightly so if there are

0:59:57 > 1:00:03more kids going into school.But we have faced considerable budgetary

1:00:03 > 1:00:06pressures. And that is because of that economic situation we face when

1:00:06 > 1:00:13we came into the government.You can't keep talking about that.As it

1:00:13 > 1:00:16improves, we would want to see extra money spent there, but the way to do

1:00:16 > 1:00:22that is not to borrow too much today. But is it not time to spend?

1:00:22 > 1:00:27Then those children have to pay that back...Do we not see social

1:00:27 > 1:00:32problems coming into the classroom because of austerity?I have visited

1:00:32 > 1:00:35a number of schools in my constituencies and we are seeing

1:00:35 > 1:00:39schools performing better and yes, there will be more advantageous to

1:00:39 > 1:00:45spend more, I would like to see... As the economy rises, I would like

1:00:45 > 1:00:49to see more teachers, more funding for schools. No MP doesn't want to

1:00:49 > 1:00:56see well-funded schools.Teachers say I can't work any situations.

1:00:56 > 1:01:00Some of the school is ex-accosting them because they are having to pay

1:01:00 > 1:01:09teachers for hiring. Those teachers have earned that. Absolutely.Damien

1:01:09 > 1:01:12is talking about it like we can fix this later. But for the children who

1:01:12 > 1:01:19are at school today. It matters now. And school standards are rising.We

1:01:19 > 1:01:29will get reaction to the budget next week. My thanks to my guests. I will

1:01:29 > 1:01:30hand you back to Sarah London.

1:01:38 > 1:01:40Philip Hammond will deliver his Budget on Wednesday -

1:01:40 > 1:01:44he's moved it to the Autumn if you remember - and he'll be

1:01:44 > 1:01:46hoping it can help re-define the Government in the eyes

1:01:46 > 1:01:47of the public.

1:01:47 > 1:01:51But when it comes to the economy, do people trust

1:01:51 > 1:01:52the Conservatives, or Labour?

1:01:52 > 1:01:56Here's Ellie Price with the moodbox.

1:01:56 > 1:02:04MUSIC: The Road to Nowhere by Talking Heads.

1:02:04 > 1:02:07All eyes will be on the Chancellor this week as we find out

1:02:07 > 1:02:10what he has been cooking up in his Budget.

1:02:10 > 1:02:13So we have pulled off the A1 near Peterborough to ask people here

1:02:13 > 1:02:16who they trust with the economy - is it the Chancellor,

1:02:16 > 1:02:22Philip Hammond, or is it Labour's John McDonnell?

1:02:22 > 1:02:26No 7.

1:02:26 > 1:02:31Which one's Tory?

1:02:37 > 1:02:39I voted Conservative for the last two

1:02:39 > 1:02:43elections, don't feel very confident now, so I'm going to swap.

1:02:43 > 1:02:46If I said to you which of these characters

1:02:46 > 1:02:48would you trust with the economy, what would you say?

1:02:48 > 1:02:50The one who's currently running it, because they

1:02:50 > 1:02:52seem to be bringing the deficit down.

1:02:52 > 1:02:53Labour.

1:02:53 > 1:02:54Why?

1:02:54 > 1:02:56Because I'm an NHS worker.

1:02:56 > 1:03:00For me, it's just about spending, public spending.

1:03:00 > 1:03:05Labour always overspend.

1:03:05 > 1:03:10John McDonnell, I think capitalism as we know it is tanked

1:03:10 > 1:03:15and I think we need a radical re-think.

1:03:15 > 1:03:18Broken his egg, who do you trust more on the economy?

1:03:18 > 1:03:19No one.

1:03:19 > 1:03:22Why?

1:03:22 > 1:03:27Because they never come up trumps with anything that they

1:03:27 > 1:03:28reckon they're going to do.

1:03:28 > 1:03:30If I had to make you choose one of them?

1:03:30 > 1:03:32The man that's there, Hammond.

1:03:32 > 1:03:34I wouldn't trust Philip Hammond with a

1:03:34 > 1:03:40bag of marbles or a plastic ball!

1:03:40 > 1:03:41Hello, Bob.

1:03:41 > 1:03:42Oh, hello.

1:03:42 > 1:03:44Who do you trust more on the economy?

1:03:44 > 1:03:45Oh, the Conservatives.

1:03:45 > 1:03:46Do you? Why's that?

1:03:46 > 1:03:49I just think they're better for the small businessman.

1:03:49 > 1:03:51We need a Maggie or a Winston Churchill,

1:03:51 > 1:03:54somebody in there with balls to say, right,

1:03:54 > 1:03:55that's the direction we are

1:03:55 > 1:03:57going in, that's what we are going to do.

1:03:57 > 1:04:00I've got balls!

1:04:00 > 1:04:01What are you doing?

1:04:01 > 1:04:08Putting balls in holes by the look of it!

1:04:08 > 1:04:11I suppose the lesser of the two evils is anything but Tory,

1:04:11 > 1:04:13but I say that without a great deal of conviction.

1:04:13 > 1:04:16Having grown up in the '70s with all the rubbish on the

1:04:16 > 1:04:18streets, the strikes, the unions.

1:04:18 > 1:04:22Re-nationalisation and they're going to spend a lot of money

1:04:22 > 1:04:27and increase taxes and it will pull the country down.

1:04:27 > 1:04:31I've seen an awful loft of all-day breakfasts today, but it

1:04:31 > 1:04:34is clearing up time here at the diner and time

1:04:34 > 1:04:36to reveal the Moodbox.

1:04:36 > 1:04:38Take it away, Tim.

1:04:38 > 1:04:40As you can say it was a close-run thing, but

1:04:40 > 1:04:43like any fiscally responsible Chancellor, I've done my maths and

1:04:43 > 1:04:50counted and Philip Hammond got six more votes than John McDonnell.

1:04:50 > 1:04:53Oh, chip, thank you very much!

1:04:53 > 1:04:56That was Ellie and the entirely unscientific Moodbox,

1:04:56 > 1:04:58at the Stibbington diner near Peterborough.

1:04:58 > 1:05:01But for a slightly more scientific understanding of how the public view

1:05:01 > 1:05:04the parties on this and other issues, let's have a look

1:05:04 > 1:05:05at some recent polling.

1:05:05 > 1:05:08Here's where the Conservatives and Labour stood on the economy back

1:05:08 > 1:05:11when the Prime Minister called the snap election in April,

1:05:11 > 1:05:14when the Conservatives had a big lead, as they did in many

1:05:14 > 1:05:16other areas.

1:05:16 > 1:05:19The most recent poll by the same company reckoned Labour had narrowed

1:05:19 > 1:05:21the gap significantly, as they have in other areas,

1:05:21 > 1:05:27although they're still 10 points behind the Tories on this issue.

1:05:27 > 1:05:30And there was another survey much discussed at Westminster this week,

1:05:30 > 1:05:35showing that while the gap between Theresa May

1:05:35 > 1:05:38and Jeremy Corbyn has narrowed drastically since that pre-election

1:05:38 > 1:05:39period, Mrs May is, despite her many problems,

1:05:39 > 1:05:41still pretty much level-pegging in polling terms or

1:05:41 > 1:05:43even slightly ahead.

1:05:43 > 1:05:45And when it comes to how people intend to vote

1:05:45 > 1:05:47while the Tories are behind, there's no sign of a

1:05:47 > 1:05:49big Labour lead yet.

1:05:49 > 1:05:51Tony Blair thinks that, given the current "mess"

1:05:51 > 1:05:55inside the Government, Jeremy Corbyn's party should be

1:05:55 > 1:05:5810 or 15 points ahead.

1:05:58 > 1:06:02Well, many in Labour will find it easy to dismiss both Tony Blair

1:06:02 > 1:06:04and the opinion polls, as they both called the last election entirely

1:06:04 > 1:06:11wrong, so what if anything do these polls tell us?

1:06:11 > 1:06:19Let's turn to our expert panel. Labour are now eight points on the

1:06:19 > 1:06:24economy, according to a poll. Why is there a gap between Labour and the

1:06:24 > 1:06:31Tories?There seems to be a deep-seated reservation in the minds

1:06:31 > 1:06:34of many voters. They look at Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonnell and

1:06:34 > 1:06:39imagine them in charge of the country, the finances, national

1:06:39 > 1:06:42security, and think... It is unfashionable to point out in many

1:06:42 > 1:06:47circles that Labour did not win the last election, and it didn't win it

1:06:47 > 1:06:53for that kind of reason. Jeremy Corbyn is very good at attracting

1:06:53 > 1:06:59and inspiring young people and people who had not voted before. We

1:06:59 > 1:07:05underestimated his capacity to do that. But he wasn't great at turning

1:07:05 > 1:07:10Tories to Labour, or sealing off those final reservations. The

1:07:10 > 1:07:14government have had a shambolic few weeks. We are tripping over

1:07:14 > 1:07:18resigning a cabinet ministers. They are fighting like ferrets. A lot of

1:07:18 > 1:07:21people are having a really tough time and looking at the government

1:07:21 > 1:07:26to help them, and are unimpressed with what they see. But there seems

1:07:26 > 1:07:33to be a final fence that Corbyn does not seem to be able to get over.

1:07:33 > 1:07:38Isn't Tony Blair right, that Labour should be 15 or 20 points ahead?I

1:07:38 > 1:07:43think he's completely wrong, and is revealing he is out of date. I think

1:07:43 > 1:07:46Labour are in a really good position. If you look at what they

1:07:46 > 1:07:52have achieved in the last year, going into Christmas 2016, Corbyn

1:07:52 > 1:07:58had just managed to avoid, had to re-fight Labour leadership contest.

1:07:58 > 1:08:05They were 20 points behind. Theresa May was at the top of her game.

1:08:05 > 1:08:10Through the general election and beyond it, they have continued to

1:08:10 > 1:08:14build their movement. They are very effective on social media. I think

1:08:14 > 1:08:20they are in a strong position, and they need about 60 seats to win the

1:08:20 > 1:08:25next general election. They will probably start with 25 of those. The

1:08:25 > 1:08:29fact that they are closing the gap on the economy suggests that a lot

1:08:29 > 1:08:33of voters are now giving them a chance or a hearing, which they

1:08:33 > 1:08:37certainly were not getting a year ago. I think they have done very

1:08:37 > 1:08:43well.Can they be confident with a slim lead against the government?I

1:08:43 > 1:08:48am slightly more with Tony Blair than with Iain. This goes back to

1:08:48 > 1:08:55that very general election result. A huge turnout for Labour for Jeremy

1:08:55 > 1:09:03Corbyn. If you asked that same 40% of people today, do you want Jeremy

1:09:03 > 1:09:06Corbyn to be Prime Minister? Where you really voting for Jeremy Corbyn

1:09:06 > 1:09:12to lead the British governmentanswer is no, because Theresa May still,

1:09:12 > 1:09:17despite the fact she is presiding over a shambolic cabinet, she has

1:09:17 > 1:09:23the most support for Prime Minister. The last general election may have

1:09:23 > 1:09:29just been a giant by-election, because everyone was so short that

1:09:29 > 1:09:33Theresa May would get in.The Chancellor Philip Hammond gave

1:09:33 > 1:09:40Labour a bit of a gift, when he said, there were not any unemployed

1:09:40 > 1:09:46people in Britain. A slip of the tongue. Was that damaging?You have

1:09:46 > 1:09:51to look at the context he was saying it in, which will not be the context

1:09:51 > 1:09:58of the Facebook meme you will get shortly. He was asked about future

1:09:58 > 1:10:09unemployment, and he was saying that when technological advances came,

1:10:09 > 1:10:14unemployment didn't materialise. They would not be able to use that

1:10:14 > 1:10:19against him so easily if it didn't have something that people think

1:10:19 > 1:10:23about the Conservative government, which is that they are out of touch,

1:10:23 > 1:10:27they have no idea about some people, that they refuse to see what they

1:10:27 > 1:10:31have done. People have that idea about the Conservatives, so to drop

1:10:31 > 1:10:38a bit of a clanger in that regard... The budget is on Wednesday, and also

1:10:38 > 1:10:42this week, the Brexit committee will be meeting. What will they be

1:10:42 > 1:10:47talking about and why does it matter?What Stephen Hammond said to

1:10:47 > 1:10:50you a few moments ago was fascinating. Tomorrow is going to be

1:10:50 > 1:10:56the big meeting. It is the negotiations committee. Nine or so

1:10:56 > 1:11:00ministers have recently been included in that, like Michael Gove.

1:11:00 > 1:11:04They are going to be talking about the money, precisely how much they

1:11:04 > 1:11:10offer in two weeks' time to meet this deadline in the December

1:11:10 > 1:11:13council for phase two. Michael Gove and Boris Johnson want to add in

1:11:13 > 1:11:18conditions. They want to say, we will give you this as long as we get

1:11:18 > 1:11:23that. What was fascinating with Stephen Hammond just now was that he

1:11:23 > 1:11:26revealed that it wasn't just the Brexiteers in Cabinet who want a

1:11:26 > 1:11:36more precise definition of what we are going for, it is the remainers

1:11:36 > 1:11:41as well.In the heart of the government, David Davis is trying to

1:11:41 > 1:11:49keep the bill as low as possible, possibly around 30%. The divorce

1:11:49 > 1:11:56Bill and future liabilities. Some in the civil service have suggested

1:11:56 > 1:12:02that it has to be 40 or above. What it reveals to me is really, it's

1:12:02 > 1:12:06another function of Britain not really having a proper Prime

1:12:06 > 1:12:11Minister. In normal circumstances, of course the Cabinet is divided. A

1:12:11 > 1:12:16strong leader would say, right, this is what is happening. This is where

1:12:16 > 1:12:22we are going. We will call it 35 or 40 billion. We will save to the

1:12:22 > 1:12:26European Union, there is the check, but it will not have a signature on

1:12:26 > 1:12:39it until we are satisfied with the next

1:12:44 > 1:12:47stage. The government is hampered by the lack of a strong personality who

1:12:47 > 1:12:50could do that, make a political play with other European leaders that

1:12:50 > 1:12:52might break the deadlock.Presumably that is why the full Cabinet have

1:12:52 > 1:12:54not discussed what the future Brexit deal will be.That is the

1:12:54 > 1:12:57astonishing thing. There has been no sort of vision of what Britain is

1:12:57 > 1:13:01going to look like after Brexit. We have got down in what the

1:13:01 > 1:13:06negotiation position for tomorrow will be. What does it look like in

1:13:06 > 1:13:09terms of immigration, trade with the rest of the world, what life will

1:13:09 > 1:13:14look like for ordinarily... Ordinary people?There are visions for this,

1:13:14 > 1:13:20but they will not agree on one. Is there such a thing as a Tory Cabinet

1:13:20 > 1:13:23Minister who could have one single vision without them all ripping each

1:13:23 > 1:13:28other's heads off? Probably not. Thank you.

1:13:28 > 1:13:29That's all for today.

1:13:29 > 1:13:32Join me again next Sunday at 11.00 here on BBC One.

1:13:32 > 1:13:35Until then, bye bye.