3:03:05 > 3:03:08Hello and welcome to the last Sunday Politics before polling day.
3:03:08 > 3:03:11It's the vital last push for the campaigns.
3:03:11 > 3:03:13And in the studio, as we enter the final days, we've brought
3:03:13 > 3:03:16together senior figures from the five main parties,
3:03:16 > 3:03:19making their pitch for your vote.
3:03:19 > 3:03:21Whatever the result here, the process of forming a government
3:03:21 > 3:03:24won't be as tortuous as it's been in Dublin -
3:03:24 > 3:03:27but there's now an unprecedented Fine Gael-Fianna Fail deal.
3:03:27 > 3:03:29And we'll be live there with the latest
3:03:29 > 3:03:31a little later in the programme.
3:03:31 > 3:03:33And with their thoughts ahead of a huge week
3:03:33 > 3:03:35in Northern Ireland politics, my guests of the day are
3:03:35 > 3:03:37Professors Deirdre Heenan and Rick Wilford.
3:03:43 > 3:03:45So let's get into the main discussion
3:03:45 > 3:03:47with my studio guests straight away.
3:03:47 > 3:03:52With me are the DUP's Nigel Dodds, Mairtin O Muilleoir from Sinn Fein,
3:03:52 > 3:03:56the SDLP's Claire Hanna, Ulster Unionist Danny Kennedy
3:03:56 > 3:03:59and The Alliance Party's Stephen Farry.
3:03:59 > 3:04:01You're all very welcome to the programme.
3:04:01 > 3:04:03Thank you for making time to be with us.
3:04:03 > 3:04:09Nigel Dodds, manifesto commitments on the part of Sinn Fein
3:04:09 > 3:04:12and the DUP seem to suggest a bit of a sham fight as far as this
3:04:12 > 3:04:15notion of Arlene for First Minister is concerned,
3:04:15 > 3:04:18because on the one hand, you don't want Martin McGuinness
3:04:18 > 3:04:20to be First Minister, but on the other hand
3:04:20 > 3:04:23it looks like there's some kind of DUP-Sinn Fein
3:04:23 > 3:04:25grand plan for the next five years.
3:04:25 > 3:04:28Well, I think, as Arlene put it the other day, it's one thing
3:04:28 > 3:04:29trying to persuade undecided voters,
3:04:29 > 3:04:31but we're delighted when our politic opponents
3:04:31 > 3:04:33actually adopt some of our policies.
3:04:33 > 3:04:36Simon Hamilton, back at our party conference, first mentioned
3:04:36 > 3:04:39the issue of spending an extra £1 billion
3:04:39 > 3:04:42by the end of 2021 on health,
3:04:42 > 3:04:45so this was something that we have been talking about for some time.
3:04:45 > 3:04:48And an extra 50,000 new jobs and new social housing.
3:04:48 > 3:04:49And I think these...
3:04:49 > 3:04:52It starts to look like you've had a discussion in the corridor.
3:04:52 > 3:04:55What we're doing in this very, very comprehensive manifesto,
3:04:55 > 3:04:57and you have put out a number of issues,
3:04:57 > 3:05:01but what we're putting forward in this is a very comprehensive list
3:05:01 > 3:05:05of policies and objectives covering health, education, infrastructure,
3:05:05 > 3:05:08jobs and keeping household taxes down.
3:05:08 > 3:05:11But the only way people are going to get that plan implemented
3:05:11 > 3:05:13is to vote for DUP candidates,
3:05:13 > 3:05:15making sure that we have a large number of members
3:05:15 > 3:05:18of the Assembly, the majority on the Executive
3:05:18 > 3:05:20and that Arlene remains as First Minister.
3:05:20 > 3:05:23And they also know, the DUP voters also know, that the way
3:05:23 > 3:05:27those promises will be implemented is by voting for DUP candidates
3:05:27 > 3:05:29who will then be sitting at the head of the Executive,
3:05:29 > 3:05:32alongside Sinn Fein, implementing those agreed policies.
3:05:32 > 3:05:33That's the point.
3:05:33 > 3:05:35We are very committed to moving Northern Ireland forward.
3:05:35 > 3:05:38If we want a better future for Northern Ireland, it has to be
3:05:38 > 3:05:40under the strong leadership of Arlene Foster.
3:05:40 > 3:05:43We need to ensure that we have a plan going forward,
3:05:43 > 3:05:44and we have a five-point plan.
3:05:44 > 3:05:46But we want to see Northern Ireland stable and secure.
3:05:46 > 3:05:48Of course we want to work in partnership
3:05:48 > 3:05:50with all parties around this table.
3:05:50 > 3:05:53Some parties don't know whether they're coming or going or whether they're in or out.
3:05:53 > 3:05:56We're determined to move Northern Ireland forward and
3:05:56 > 3:05:59we'll work for the best interests of all the people of Northern Ireland.
3:05:59 > 3:06:02But to ensure that there's strong leadership and a better future,
3:06:02 > 3:06:05people have got to get out there and vote for Arlene for First Minister,
3:06:05 > 3:06:08they've got to ensure there is a good representation of DUP ministers
3:06:08 > 3:06:10to ensure our five-point plan is implemented.
3:06:10 > 3:06:11And that is absolutely vital.
3:06:11 > 3:06:13Let me ask you a question, Mairtin, if you don't mind.
3:06:13 > 3:06:16The question is simply this - that sounds very much to me
3:06:16 > 3:06:20like there is an agreed strategy for what happens on the 6th of May,
3:06:20 > 3:06:23and in fact Arlene Foster on The View on Thursday night
3:06:23 > 3:06:27more or less accused Sinn Fein of copying and pasting key elements
3:06:27 > 3:06:29of the DUP manifesto.
3:06:29 > 3:06:32What I wanted to say was this - when I'm at the doorsteps, people say,
3:06:32 > 3:06:35"We like to see the big parties more aligned in what they want to achieve
3:06:35 > 3:06:38"in health and education and driving the economy forward."
3:06:38 > 3:06:41So it's no coincidence that those key issues are the same
3:06:41 > 3:06:43- for both of your parties? - If you'd let me finish,
3:06:43 > 3:06:44and what I say to them in return is,
3:06:44 > 3:06:47"We're actually going to have a different form of government now.
3:06:47 > 3:06:50"A fresh start will mean a fresh start, will mean a fresh urgency,
3:06:50 > 3:06:54"a coming together of the two large parties in government."
3:06:54 > 3:06:55Cos we want to be in government.
3:06:55 > 3:06:58That's one of the great, I suppose, differences between ourselves
3:06:58 > 3:07:01and the putative opposition parties.
3:07:01 > 3:07:04So the DUP manifesto was launched three weeks, maybe four weeks,
3:07:04 > 3:07:06ahead of the Sinn Fein manifesto.
3:07:06 > 3:07:09You saw the DUP commitment to £1 billion in extra spending
3:07:09 > 3:07:12spending for health, the creation of 50,000 new jobs,
3:07:12 > 3:07:15new social housing, 8,000 on the part of the DUP.
3:07:15 > 3:07:18You then stuck in your manifesto £1 billion of extra spending
3:07:18 > 3:07:22for health, 50,000 new jobs and 10,000 new social homes.
3:07:22 > 3:07:24No, Sinn Fein is making pledges based on what we have stood for
3:07:24 > 3:07:27throughout the last mandate, what we wish to see in the mandate
3:07:27 > 3:07:29ahead and that is sorting out the health service,
3:07:29 > 3:07:32providing the extra £1 billion needed. But also making sure...
3:07:32 > 3:07:34But is it a draft programme for government?
3:07:34 > 3:07:37The two manifestos, those key points of your two manifestos,
3:07:37 > 3:07:39is that a draft programme for government?
3:07:39 > 3:07:42It gives me hope when I look at what our priorities are,
3:07:42 > 3:07:45to create jobs for people, when I go into the Sandy Row Enterprise Hub,
3:07:45 > 3:07:47where they're trying to break generational unemployment,
3:07:47 > 3:07:50when I go into the market where they're trying for the first time
3:07:50 > 3:07:53in a generation to create work for our young people and opportunities,
3:07:53 > 3:07:56it gives me hope that our parties are aligned on some things.
3:07:56 > 3:07:59We want to create an extra £330 million for our universities
3:07:59 > 3:08:03as well, because we need to have the skills to attract new jobs.
3:08:03 > 3:08:05We need to bring the other parties in.
3:08:05 > 3:08:08There may be differences, but there are key similarities as well.
3:08:08 > 3:08:11Claire Hanna, let me ask you, as far as the SDLP is concerned,
3:08:11 > 3:08:15does it look to you as if the two key parties in the Executive
3:08:15 > 3:08:18up to now and very probably in future have got together
3:08:18 > 3:08:22and agreed key strategies for what happens next?
3:08:22 > 3:08:25Well, it does. There are a lot of similarities between those two documents.
3:08:25 > 3:08:27The DUP did release theirs about a month ago.
3:08:27 > 3:08:31Sinn Fein released a 2.5 page manifesto a week before the election
3:08:31 > 3:08:35that presumably was distilling some of the other ideas flying about.
3:08:35 > 3:08:38Both of them, I have to say, look like a lot of free beer tomorrow,
3:08:38 > 3:08:40because there are few specifics.
3:08:40 > 3:08:44And it also doesn't reflect what they've actually done for the last nine years.
3:08:44 > 3:08:45Listen, the SDLP were taken apart
3:08:45 > 3:08:48for not understanding the matters of its manifesto commitments.
3:08:48 > 3:08:51So you need to be very careful about going down that road.
3:08:51 > 3:08:52The SDLP commitments are very clear.
3:08:52 > 3:08:54Well, they weren't to Gerry Diver last week.
3:08:54 > 3:08:57Our manifesto is what a manifesto has always been.
3:08:57 > 3:09:00It's a statement of your policy and aims, and our five specific
3:09:00 > 3:09:02costed pledges were just that.
3:09:02 > 3:09:05They were new ideas for which we have identified new money.
3:09:05 > 3:09:08This business of saying, "We're going to put one billion into health,
3:09:08 > 3:09:11"and six million in this," but without explaining to people
3:09:11 > 3:09:13where it comes from, it's patronising. So I'm glad
3:09:13 > 3:09:16- if they've done...- Can we come back on that? Cos we've explained
3:09:16 > 3:09:18exactly where the £1 billion for health is coming from.
3:09:18 > 3:09:20I'm glad if they've done a little bit of advance work,
3:09:20 > 3:09:22because that hasn't been what's happening.
3:09:22 > 3:09:24They have been bringing the Assembly up and down
3:09:24 > 3:09:26and people have been let down by that.
3:09:26 > 3:09:28I also must point out, hilariously,
3:09:28 > 3:09:31the comment there about people who don't want to be in government.
3:09:31 > 3:09:33Have you had a conversation with Mary Lou McDonald
3:09:33 > 3:09:35or any of your colleagues in Dublin recently,
3:09:35 > 3:09:38who ruled out going into government immediately?
3:09:38 > 3:09:42The SDLP has tried and slogged for the last 10 and 20 years to
3:09:42 > 3:09:45- try and make...- Does the SDLP want to be in the next government or not?
3:09:45 > 3:09:47..to try and make government work,
3:09:47 > 3:09:49we didn't have to be dragged into power-sharing.
3:09:49 > 3:09:51So we're trying to make it work.
3:09:51 > 3:09:55If we think we can make government work and better hold failing parties
3:09:55 > 3:09:56to account, we'll do that.
3:09:56 > 3:09:59Just as a yes or no, is it clear as to whether or not the SDLP
3:09:59 > 3:10:01wants to be in government or opposition?
3:10:01 > 3:10:03Of course we want to be in government and we have set out
3:10:03 > 3:10:05specific areas that we will negotiate on.
3:10:05 > 3:10:07But if the programme for government...
3:10:07 > 3:10:09And it is a little bit worrying, I think it does take people
3:10:09 > 3:10:12for granted if the programme for government is sitting bound
3:10:12 > 3:10:14on Arlene Foster's desk already,
3:10:14 > 3:10:16because that bypasses the democratic process.
3:10:16 > 3:10:19All five parties are supposed to get in and negotiate that document.
3:10:19 > 3:10:21She says it's not, of course. She denies that absolutely.
3:10:21 > 3:10:24We need innovative, forward-thinking ideas. If we can get those into
3:10:24 > 3:10:27the programme for government, we'll be there, and if we can't, we won't.
3:10:27 > 3:10:30Danny Kennedy, as far as the Party is concerned,
3:10:30 > 3:10:32does this look to you like a sham fight, the whole idea of
3:10:32 > 3:10:35Arlene for First Minister, we mustn't have Martin McGuinness
3:10:35 > 3:10:37as First Minister under any circumstances?
3:10:37 > 3:10:39Is that a distraction in your eyes?
3:10:40 > 3:10:45I think it's increasingly clear that there is a precooked programme
3:10:45 > 3:10:47for government that has been
3:10:47 > 3:10:52agreed in part by Sinn Fein and the DUP.
3:10:52 > 3:10:56And I think that is seriously taking the electorate for granted,
3:10:56 > 3:11:00and I think that is a huge mistake, because everyone knows that
3:11:00 > 3:11:02in a mandatory coalition all of the parties will be part of
3:11:02 > 3:11:05the negotiation who are entitled to Executive seats.
3:11:05 > 3:11:07We don't know if the Ulster Unionist Party will be,
3:11:07 > 3:11:10because, of course, you walked out at the end of the last mandate.
3:11:10 > 3:11:13Is that a firm commitment on the part of the Ulster Unionists to be in government?
3:11:13 > 3:11:17The other factor that is really interesting to us is that
3:11:17 > 3:11:22the DUP's campaign has been centred around one person, their leader.
3:11:22 > 3:11:26And, in fact, it's gone to the extent that my wife received
3:11:26 > 3:11:28yesterday a letter in the post from Arlene to say
3:11:28 > 3:11:32that if she didn't vote for the DUP candidate in my area,
3:11:32 > 3:11:33bad things would happen.
3:11:33 > 3:11:37- And that we could go back...- And is she going to take that advice?
3:11:37 > 3:11:40I think that's very unlikely.
3:11:40 > 3:11:46But the difficulty is, it's a campaign around one individual,
3:11:46 > 3:11:49and centred primarily for purely party political interests,
3:11:49 > 3:11:52not in the best interests of the people of Northern Ireland.
3:11:52 > 3:11:55Maybe the DUP believes it has a leader worth trumpeting.
3:11:55 > 3:11:59- Exactly!- Stormont needs to work for all of the people.
3:11:59 > 3:12:02Not a shared-out, but a shared responsibility.
3:12:02 > 3:12:05I'm going to come to Stephen in a second, but just answer my question.
3:12:05 > 3:12:08Are you absolutely clear that the Ulster Unionist Party
3:12:08 > 3:12:13will be in government if it has the political mandate to be in
3:12:13 > 3:12:16government after the next election, or are you still sitting on the fence?
3:12:16 > 3:12:19We're seeking a comprehensive mandate from the people
3:12:19 > 3:12:23in the first part, and then we will enter the all-party negotiations
3:12:23 > 3:12:25for the Executive places to be allocated.
3:12:25 > 3:12:27But you had a mandate the last time and you walked out
3:12:27 > 3:12:29over the issue of trusting Sinn Fein.
3:12:29 > 3:12:32And we will judge it on that basis. It couldn't be clearer.
3:12:32 > 3:12:34Couldn't be clearer? OK. Stephen, is it a sham fight?
3:12:34 > 3:12:36I think that answer is as clear as mud.
3:12:36 > 3:12:39First of all, we need to reflect on what all the parties
3:12:39 > 3:12:41have been doing over the past five years.
3:12:41 > 3:12:43Whenever we're seeing new commitments to fresh starts, etc,
3:12:43 > 3:12:45we have to judge that based upon
3:12:45 > 3:12:46the track records of the different parties.
3:12:46 > 3:12:50This week we launched Northern Ireland's other waiting list crisis
3:12:50 > 3:12:52where we identified at least ten major reforms
3:12:52 > 3:12:54where we've either missed opportunities and things have
3:12:54 > 3:12:57been delayed or indeed entirely left on the shelf.
3:12:57 > 3:13:00There are important reforms where we need to move forward faster
3:13:00 > 3:13:03in Northern Ireland. I'm very conscious that both David and I
3:13:03 > 3:13:05have delivered in our own departments. There has been
3:13:05 > 3:13:08delivery elsewhere in terms of the Executive, but going forward,
3:13:08 > 3:13:09I'm seeing a lot of populism, frankly,
3:13:09 > 3:13:12from some of my colleagues here at the table. For example,
3:13:12 > 3:13:14this £1 billion on health - the issue on health
3:13:14 > 3:13:16isn't just about money, it's actually about doing things
3:13:16 > 3:13:18differently and having a sustainable model.
3:13:18 > 3:13:21Is there not a lesson - with the greatest respect,
3:13:21 > 3:13:23is there not a lesson in this for the Alliance Party?
3:13:23 > 3:13:26Because you accuse these other parties of being populist -
3:13:26 > 3:13:28they get more votes than you from the electors at election time
3:13:28 > 3:13:31because they put forward policies that people want to vote for.
3:13:31 > 3:13:34You continue to sit at the same level that you've sat at
3:13:34 > 3:13:37for the last 20 or 30 years and tell people that they're
3:13:37 > 3:13:40going to have to pay more in various payments in the next mandate.
3:13:40 > 3:13:42I mean, maybe there is a lesson.
3:13:42 > 3:13:44With respect, the Alliance Party vote has grown
3:13:44 > 3:13:46election after election over the past ten years.
3:13:46 > 3:13:49- By a small amount, yes. - Every election, we have grown.
3:13:49 > 3:13:52We've now had an MP, we've had two ministers at the Executive table,
3:13:52 > 3:13:56our two ministers, myself and David, we have delivered a clear programme
3:13:56 > 3:13:58despite some very adverse circumstances
3:13:58 > 3:13:59in terms of public finances.
3:13:59 > 3:14:02So we've proven what we can do whenever we're given the chance.
3:14:02 > 3:14:05And frankly we need more discussion of policy in terms of our elections
3:14:05 > 3:14:08rather than a beauty contest or issues over which party
3:14:08 > 3:14:10is going to be the top in terms of some symbolism.
3:14:10 > 3:14:13This is about electing the government of Northern Ireland,
3:14:13 > 3:14:16the people who will be deciding the issues for the next five years.
3:14:16 > 3:14:18Hang on, I want to ask Mairtin O Muilleoir a question
3:14:18 > 3:14:19about petition of concern.
3:14:19 > 3:14:21We've heard a lot about the arguments about
3:14:21 > 3:14:23who's going to be the biggest party.
3:14:23 > 3:14:25Surely what Sinn Fein wants above anything else is to move
3:14:25 > 3:14:29from 29 to 30 MLAs in the next mandate so you will be able to table
3:14:29 > 3:14:31a petition of concern yourself
3:14:31 > 3:14:33without having to get support from someone else?
3:14:33 > 3:14:36And if that happens, potentially we're going to have two blocks,
3:14:36 > 3:14:40Sinn Fein and the DUP, each able to petition a table of concern,
3:14:40 > 3:14:43so each able to cancel the other out on issues
3:14:43 > 3:14:45where you haven't made some sort of agreement.
3:14:45 > 3:14:48Please, God, we don't have more log-jam in the time ahead.
3:14:48 > 3:14:50But that's potentially going to be the case.
3:14:50 > 3:14:52This is our pledge, our pledge is the fresh start,
3:14:52 > 3:14:55our pledge is to put a greater premium on consensus than conflict.
3:14:55 > 3:14:57I'm asking about petition of concern.
3:14:57 > 3:15:00Yes, but if we do that, then we can't go down a road
3:15:00 > 3:15:03of trying to use a petition of concern willy-nilly.
3:15:03 > 3:15:06A petition of concern was introduced
3:15:06 > 3:15:08to protect minorities in extreme cases.
3:15:08 > 3:15:10Every party that uses the petition of concern
3:15:10 > 3:15:13says that its particular instance is an exception.
3:15:13 > 3:15:15And it isn't a willy-nilly use of the petition.
3:15:15 > 3:15:17Let me say two things. First, I would like to see
3:15:17 > 3:15:19petitions of concern used less often in the time ahead.
3:15:19 > 3:15:23And Sinn Fein would like to increase its mandate so that we can deliver
3:15:23 > 3:15:25more of our pledges in government.
3:15:25 > 3:15:28And I'm proud of what the Executive has achieved.
3:15:28 > 3:15:29I know some people come to the table
3:15:29 > 3:15:32and want to defend our ministers only in the Executive.
3:15:32 > 3:15:34Except for Mr Kennedy, who is in opposition now,
3:15:34 > 3:15:36everyone else has been in government.
3:15:36 > 3:15:38And I'm proud of what's been achieved, 40,000 jobs,
3:15:38 > 3:15:41the huge number of new schools built in my consituency alone,
3:15:41 > 3:15:42and encouraging other people...
3:15:42 > 3:15:45You're getting off the point here.
3:15:45 > 3:15:48Much more has to be done and part of that has to be to stop
3:15:48 > 3:15:50emphasising the divisions in Stormont,
3:15:50 > 3:15:52and part of that is the petitions of concern.
3:15:52 > 3:15:54They are necessary in some circumstances
3:15:54 > 3:15:57but I would like to see them used less often. So that's not why...
3:15:57 > 3:16:01Does it worry you that Sinn Fein could have enough seats
3:16:01 > 3:16:04to trigger petitions of concern off its own bat in the new mandate?
3:16:04 > 3:16:06Is that a nightmare scenario for the DUP?
3:16:06 > 3:16:10The people will decide how many MLAs to return to Stormont.
3:16:10 > 3:16:12And that's a matter for the electorate on Thursday.
3:16:12 > 3:16:16Of course we want to see as many Democratic Unionist Party
3:16:16 > 3:16:18representatives, because then we will be the ones
3:16:18 > 3:16:21that will stand up and get away from some of the policies that
3:16:21 > 3:16:24Sinn Fein put forward in the last election,
3:16:24 > 3:16:26where they blocked welfare reform and we had to step in,
3:16:26 > 3:16:29provide leadership and make sure that was done from Westminster.
3:16:29 > 3:16:32There are big differences between us and Sinn Fein.
3:16:32 > 3:16:33There're differences between all of us.
3:16:33 > 3:16:36We're determined to bring people together.
3:16:36 > 3:16:38Arlene is going to provide strong leadership.
3:16:38 > 3:16:41Danny talks about Arlene being front and centre of our campaign.
3:16:41 > 3:16:44We're proud of Arlene's record since she became First Minister.
3:16:44 > 3:16:45There was a major splash
3:16:45 > 3:16:48in the Sunday Times Magazine today on Arlene.
3:16:48 > 3:16:50Why are even national figures focusing on Arlene?
3:16:50 > 3:16:53Because they see her as the key person
3:16:53 > 3:16:54to drive Northern Ireland forward.
3:16:54 > 3:16:57But in order to be First Minister, in order to have
3:16:57 > 3:17:02as many Executive ministers around the table to implement our plan,
3:17:02 > 3:17:04which is a very comprehensive plan...
3:17:04 > 3:17:06Danny, you want to come in.
3:17:06 > 3:17:10The point about it is, they need to ensure people go out and vote
3:17:10 > 3:17:13- for the DUP candidates. - I think you've made that point.
3:17:13 > 3:17:15You've said that. Danny.
3:17:17 > 3:17:23This is a campaign based on fear and the DUP campaign is largely
3:17:23 > 3:17:27now reduced to sending people letters at the last minute to say,
3:17:27 > 3:17:30- "Please vote for us, otherwise bad things happen."- Rubbish!
3:17:30 > 3:17:34That is not the basis for even a fresh start.
3:17:34 > 3:17:37- But Danny can't even say...- Let Danny speak. You've had a fair go.
3:17:37 > 3:17:40- Let's hear what Danny has to say. - He's not even saying
3:17:40 > 3:17:43- he's going to be in government. - Where is the basis for a fresh start
3:17:43 > 3:17:45when people in North Belfast are being told
3:17:45 > 3:17:48you can't even vote for other pro-union parties,
3:17:48 > 3:17:50you must vote for the Democratic Unionists?
3:17:50 > 3:17:54- Claire, you wanted to come in.- But you were happy, Danny, last year...
3:17:54 > 3:17:56Hang on, Nigel. Claire, you wanted to come in.
3:17:56 > 3:17:59..to take DUP support to stop a Sinn Fein person becoming an MP.
3:17:59 > 3:18:01It's far more important in terms of First Minister...
3:18:01 > 3:18:04- Do you mind? Claire.- That is why you are MP for North Belfast.
3:18:04 > 3:18:05This is distraction as well.
3:18:05 > 3:18:08This squabbling is what is turning people off
3:18:08 > 3:18:10and plunging our turnout. But it is a bit frustrating,
3:18:10 > 3:18:13parties are acting like they just landed on planet Earth
3:18:13 > 3:18:16and haven't been driving Stormont for the last ten years.
3:18:16 > 3:18:18What people see as inertia and under-delivery,
3:18:18 > 3:18:22and it is not just the petition of concern, and we put forward
3:18:22 > 3:18:25quite comprehensive proposals to reform that mechanism,
3:18:25 > 3:18:26it's the general log jam,
3:18:26 > 3:18:29the fact powers kept being pulled into the centre in OFM-DFM,
3:18:29 > 3:18:32strategies go in and nothing comes out at all.
3:18:32 > 3:18:35I think of the ugly scaffolding, as people have called it,
3:18:35 > 3:18:36around the petition of concern,
3:18:36 > 3:18:39we tried to reform some of the things in the opposition bill,
3:18:39 > 3:18:41and it's regrettable parties like Sinn Fein
3:18:41 > 3:18:42didn't support any of that material.
3:18:42 > 3:18:45But the petition of concern was envisaged to be
3:18:45 > 3:18:48a human rights mechanism, and we think it should go back to that,
3:18:48 > 3:18:50as in 1998, to protect minorities and not thwart them.
3:18:50 > 3:18:53Stephen Farry, the Alliance Party, and you in particular,
3:18:53 > 3:18:56found things you wanted to do blocked, effectively,
3:18:56 > 3:18:58by others in the Executive.
3:18:58 > 3:19:00Are you concerned about what Claire Hanna has referred to
3:19:00 > 3:19:03as the ugly scaffolding in certain circumstances?
3:19:03 > 3:19:06It's important we move beyond talking about process issues
3:19:06 > 3:19:08and personalities, and talk about policy outcomes.
3:19:08 > 3:19:11This is what the election is fundamentally about.
3:19:11 > 3:19:13I got most of my agenda through, as a minister, as did David.
3:19:13 > 3:19:16There were some examples where we found the situation frustrating.
3:19:16 > 3:19:18For example, the crisis we had around the budgets
3:19:18 > 3:19:19was a massive problem.
3:19:19 > 3:19:23We could have done a lot more in terms of scaling up what we've done,
3:19:23 > 3:19:24particularly around skills.
3:19:24 > 3:19:26If we are to deliver 50,000 new jobs,
3:19:26 > 3:19:28we have to invest a lot more in skills,
3:19:28 > 3:19:31we estimate £85 million per year.
3:19:31 > 3:19:35The one example where I was blocked was around teacher-training reform
3:19:35 > 3:19:38where we are trying to save money to reinvest it in the skills we need,
3:19:38 > 3:19:41For example, engineers, computer scientists.
3:19:41 > 3:19:43We all know we're training too many teachers.
3:19:43 > 3:19:46But my four party colleagues here decided they wanted
3:19:46 > 3:19:49to protect the best interests of the current infrastructure.
3:19:49 > 3:19:53The point is, the smaller parties have absolutely no capacity
3:19:53 > 3:19:56to push through what they want to do
3:19:56 > 3:19:58if Sinn Fein and the DUP want to block it.
3:19:58 > 3:20:02- That won't change in the next mandate.- On some issues, we've seen
3:20:02 > 3:20:04Sinn Fein and the DUP blocking each other on a host of reforms.
3:20:04 > 3:20:06But, if a minister focuses on a very clear agenda,
3:20:06 > 3:20:08as David and I did in our departments,
3:20:08 > 3:20:10we can achieve a huge amount.
3:20:10 > 3:20:11David has reduced crime,
3:20:11 > 3:20:14I've improved skill levels with more places in terms of apprenticeships.
3:20:14 > 3:20:16Did anybody else do a good job at all?
3:20:16 > 3:20:19- Did anyone else do a good job in the Executive?- I am sure others did.
3:20:19 > 3:20:21Mairtin, it is for you to defend your ministers.
3:20:21 > 3:20:25But the potential game-changer, at our suggestion, is that,
3:20:25 > 3:20:27after the election,
3:20:27 > 3:20:30those parties entitled to Executive positions,
3:20:30 > 3:20:34have a negotiation, and have an agreed programme for government.
3:20:34 > 3:20:38- All five parties potentially? - Whoever is eligible for that.
3:20:38 > 3:20:40But the loudest voices at the table, Danny Kennedy,
3:20:40 > 3:20:44- will be the DUP and Sinn Fein. - Well. You don't know that.
3:20:44 > 3:20:45It's extremely likely.
3:20:45 > 3:20:48We have fought a very positive campaign.
3:20:48 > 3:20:51And we are pleased with the response we are getting.
3:20:51 > 3:20:53We will await the outcome. But I have to say,
3:20:53 > 3:20:56I am increasingly worried that there is a precooked programme
3:20:56 > 3:20:58for government that has been hatched up
3:20:58 > 3:21:01- between the DUP and Sinn Fein. - We've discussed that already.
3:21:01 > 3:21:05- Claire?- And that doesn't lead to collective responsibility.
3:21:05 > 3:21:07Claire Hanna, I just want to ask you about turnout.
3:21:07 > 3:21:10There is a tremendous concern in certain quarters
3:21:10 > 3:21:13that public apathy is running at an all-time high,
3:21:13 > 3:21:15the public not connecting with Stormont.
3:21:15 > 3:21:19In the elections in 2003 and 2007, turnout was 63%.
3:21:19 > 3:21:22In 2011, it was 54%.
3:21:22 > 3:21:24There are some people saying it could dip below 50%.
3:21:24 > 3:21:26We don't know, but it could dip below 50%.
3:21:26 > 3:21:29If it does, how serious is that for democracy?
3:21:29 > 3:21:31It's very serious and it's worrying and it's sad.
3:21:31 > 3:21:35If you go further than 2003, close to 80% voted in the referendum.
3:21:35 > 3:21:39So, if we do drop down to 50, that really is a stark fall.
3:21:39 > 3:21:40A referendum's exceptional, though.
3:21:40 > 3:21:43Clearly, people are switched off from Stormont.
3:21:43 > 3:21:44I know, when you knock on doors,
3:21:44 > 3:21:46people aren't switched off from politics.
3:21:46 > 3:21:50They still do want to talk to you about issues around education,
3:21:50 > 3:21:52they want to know why all these negotiations in Stormont House,
3:21:52 > 3:21:55why don't they deal with things like the 11-plus
3:21:55 > 3:21:57and not just mechanisms to elect First Ministers.
3:21:57 > 3:22:00People are switching off from politics in a Stormont sense.
3:22:00 > 3:22:02But they are interested in issues.
3:22:02 > 3:22:05Unfortunately, it serves some of the parties a little bit better
3:22:05 > 3:22:07if people switch off.
3:22:07 > 3:22:11And I think the voting data since 1998 will show
3:22:11 > 3:22:13that it's largely the centre ground switching off.
3:22:13 > 3:22:15Very quickly, Mairtin and Nigel,
3:22:15 > 3:22:18is there a direction of travel, as far as turnout is concerned?
3:22:18 > 3:22:19And does it give you cause for concern?
3:22:19 > 3:22:22Obviously, I want to see turnout get up as much as possible.
3:22:22 > 3:22:25I am reminded in the last Scottish Parliament elections when it was 50%
3:22:25 > 3:22:26and in Wales it was 41%.
3:22:26 > 3:22:29So, we still do pretty well in Northern Ireland.
3:22:29 > 3:22:31What I find out, when I go round the doors,
3:22:31 > 3:22:33and we knock doors, and we talk to people.
3:22:33 > 3:22:35Arlene has been on a listening tour, listening to people.
3:22:35 > 3:22:39She's travelled some 15,000 miles, as far as Rathlin Island,
3:22:39 > 3:22:44talking to people, because we want to ensure
3:22:44 > 3:22:46that the policies we implement after the election
3:22:46 > 3:22:49- are ones that resonate with people. - I understand that.
3:22:49 > 3:22:52I'm asking you specifically what the danger would be
3:22:52 > 3:22:54- if turnout dips below 50%? - Obviously, we want to ensure
3:22:54 > 3:22:55it's as high as possible,
3:22:55 > 3:22:58- but we have to work with the mandate given to us.- Mairtin?
3:22:58 > 3:23:00The reality is, Mark, when I go round the doors,
3:23:00 > 3:23:03I think people are engaged. I think the media could do more.
3:23:03 > 3:23:05We launched a health document, an education document,
3:23:05 > 3:23:07agri-food documents, and there wasn't a single camera
3:23:07 > 3:23:09that turned up to any of them.
3:23:09 > 3:23:11So, I think the media have a role of ensuring...
3:23:11 > 3:23:13We're having a discussion now. I'm sure lots are watching.
3:23:13 > 3:23:15Let's not waste time talking about the media.
3:23:15 > 3:23:18- You raised the issue.- I didn't raise the issue of the media. Mairtin?
3:23:18 > 3:23:20But that's a relevant issue.
3:23:20 > 3:23:22In South Belfast, the Sinn Fein vote's gone up.
3:23:22 > 3:23:24We're taking a larger percentage of those who turn up.
3:23:24 > 3:23:26We want to engage more young people.
3:23:26 > 3:23:28I do find young people engaged in issues of marriage equality,
3:23:28 > 3:23:31the Irish Language Act, refugees, looking after our neighbours.
3:23:31 > 3:23:35We need to take those issues of compassion, of social justice,
3:23:35 > 3:23:38and bring them into the heart of government.
3:23:38 > 3:23:40I'd like to see more people come out and vote.
3:23:40 > 3:23:43But I also say to those I meet on the doorsteps,
3:23:43 > 3:23:45if you don't cast your vote,
3:23:45 > 3:23:47if you don't give us the power to deliver for you,
3:23:47 > 3:23:51if you opt out of the system, then you can't criticise the government.
3:23:51 > 3:23:53A couple of things I want to get in,
3:23:53 > 3:23:56and we don't have a lot of time left, so, if you could be brief,
3:23:56 > 3:23:58if that's at all possible,
3:23:58 > 3:24:01that would be a big help to people watching at home.
3:24:01 > 3:24:03Sinn Fein has said legislation, Nigel Dodds,
3:24:03 > 3:24:04bringing forth marriage equality,
3:24:04 > 3:24:07will be a priority in the next mandate.
3:24:07 > 3:24:09Will the DUP lodge another petition of concern
3:24:09 > 3:24:11to block that if it happens?
3:24:11 > 3:24:13On the issue of lodging petitions of concern,
3:24:13 > 3:24:14we will wait to see the circumstances
3:24:14 > 3:24:16the issue has brought forward.
3:24:16 > 3:24:19Arlene has made it clear she will make the decision then
3:24:19 > 3:24:20along with the Assembly Members.
3:24:20 > 3:24:23Are there any circumstances where the DUP would sit back
3:24:23 > 3:24:25and allow marriage equality to proceed?
3:24:25 > 3:24:28- I'm not going to speculate. No. Our position is very clear.- Why not?
3:24:28 > 3:24:30We've been consistent on this matter,
3:24:30 > 3:24:33we believe we are not in the business of redefining marriage.
3:24:33 > 3:24:36We want to see people treated properly and equally
3:24:36 > 3:24:38and with respect. We have a position on that.
3:24:38 > 3:24:40But, I have to say, on the doorsteps,
3:24:40 > 3:24:43the issues coming through to me are education, health...
3:24:43 > 3:24:44I'm asking about marriage equality.
3:24:44 > 3:24:47- I've made that very clear. - Just answer this question.
3:24:47 > 3:24:49You said earlier on, interestingly, you're a democrat,
3:24:49 > 3:24:51and the people will decide. If the people decide
3:24:51 > 3:24:53that a majority of the 108 MLAs
3:24:53 > 3:24:56would support a change as far as marriage is concerned,
3:24:56 > 3:24:58would the DUP, as democrats, allow that to happen,
3:24:58 > 3:25:02or would you use a mechanism, which some see as undemocratic,
3:25:02 > 3:25:04- to block it? - For the sake of repeating myself,
3:25:04 > 3:25:07- because you obviously didn't hear the first question.- I heard,
3:25:07 > 3:25:10- you didn't answer. - What I'm saying very clearly is
3:25:10 > 3:25:13- we have a consistent position on this as a party.- So, you'd block it?
3:25:13 > 3:25:17Well, any technicality about process, about petitions of concern,
3:25:17 > 3:25:20let us wait and see what the circumstances are.
3:25:20 > 3:25:21Our position is very clear.
3:25:21 > 3:25:24We are against the redefinition of marriage. But concentrating on...
3:25:24 > 3:25:27- I think that's fairly clear. - Yes, it is.
3:25:27 > 3:25:30And we're going to concentrate on education, health and jobs.
3:25:30 > 3:25:33Are you going to bring this back to the table,
3:25:33 > 3:25:35or are you going to concentrate on those other issues?
3:25:35 > 3:25:37It's a really interesting area,
3:25:37 > 3:25:39I think the argument has been won out in the wider community.
3:25:39 > 3:25:42- It hasn't been won in legislation. - You're absolutely right.
3:25:42 > 3:25:44But, in the wider community,
3:25:44 > 3:25:46and I see it particularly during the Pride parade,
3:25:46 > 3:25:49the huge turnout of young people who support that,
3:25:49 > 3:25:51people accept that, live and let live, love thy neighbour,
3:25:51 > 3:25:54having a fully-inclusive society, especially here,
3:25:54 > 3:25:57is the best way forward. We've had enough discrimination and exclusion.
3:25:57 > 3:26:00It's also the case, Mairtin, with respect, there are a lot of people
3:26:00 > 3:26:03in Northern Ireland who are uncomfortable about any change.
3:26:03 > 3:26:06Absolutely. But I think the majority are now accepting,
3:26:06 > 3:26:09and I got an e-mail last night from a lady who said
3:26:09 > 3:26:11her niece is transgender,
3:26:11 > 3:26:14how much she appreciates the fact we are standing up for all our people.
3:26:14 > 3:26:17We need to move forward, it would be great to move forward
3:26:17 > 3:26:20by putting that emphasis on consensus.
3:26:20 > 3:26:23We will do that, and Colum Eastwood and I brought the motion
3:26:23 > 3:26:26that got a majority for equal marriage in the Assembly last year.
3:26:26 > 3:26:29We will bring a bill that does tackle in turn
3:26:29 > 3:26:32each of the issues, and does write in protections for churches,
3:26:32 > 3:26:35which seems to be the concern for many people.
3:26:35 > 3:26:37But, what the campaign last year down south
3:26:37 > 3:26:39showed us is there isn't anything to fear.
3:26:39 > 3:26:42The world hasn't stopped turning. It is about equality,
3:26:42 > 3:26:46and recognising the lives and aspirations of everybody here.
3:26:46 > 3:26:50I think that shows how, when you do engage, and when you, one-by-one,
3:26:50 > 3:26:52address the concerns, in a balanced way,
3:26:52 > 3:26:55- you don't shout people down, people will be reassured.- Danny?
3:26:55 > 3:26:58A lot of these issues will remain matters of conscience
3:26:58 > 3:27:01for members of the Ulster Unionists Assembly party.
3:27:01 > 3:27:03- Other issues like abortion as well? - Yes.
3:27:03 > 3:27:05And my personal view on abortion,
3:27:05 > 3:27:10I am opposed to the extension of the 1967 to Northern Ireland.
3:27:10 > 3:27:12And I also am opposed to same-sex relationships.
3:27:12 > 3:27:16But you think there could be some change on the issue of abortion
3:27:16 > 3:27:18in cases like fatal foetal abnormality?
3:27:18 > 3:27:22Other colleagues take a different view.
3:27:22 > 3:27:27- And we will look seriously at all of these issues.- Stephen?
3:27:27 > 3:27:30On equality, equality is not a zero-sum game.
3:27:30 > 3:27:32So, if we extend civil marriage to same-sex couples,
3:27:32 > 3:27:34we don't take away from anyone else's marriage.
3:27:34 > 3:27:36That is entirely achievable.
3:27:36 > 3:27:39If the Assembly doesn't act on this in the next five years,
3:27:39 > 3:27:42I predict that the courts will intervene and ensure it does happen.
3:27:42 > 3:27:44The courts are part of our democratic process.
3:27:44 > 3:27:47Wouldn't it be great if we could sort it out, the Irish Language Act,
3:27:47 > 3:27:49marriage equality? We, together, could do it
3:27:49 > 3:27:51instead of having to wait for the courts?
3:27:51 > 3:27:53That is a challenge for all the parties.
3:27:53 > 3:27:55That will happen if the Assembly fails.
3:27:55 > 3:27:57Maybe we've just lifted the curtain slightly
3:27:57 > 3:28:00and given people a glimpse of the kind of issues that will come up
3:28:00 > 3:28:03whenever people are returned after Thursday's election.
3:28:03 > 3:28:06We have to leave it there. Thank you all for coming in to join us today.
3:28:06 > 3:28:09We'll hear what Professors Deirdre Heenan and Rick Wilford
3:28:09 > 3:28:10made of that very shortly,
3:28:10 > 3:28:13but first, to Dublin and the historic deal
3:28:13 > 3:28:16between Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, which is set to see Enda Kenny,
3:28:16 > 3:28:18described as a political corpse just a few weeks ago,
3:28:18 > 3:28:20elected Taoiseach on Wednesday.
3:28:20 > 3:28:22The formation of a working government
3:28:22 > 3:28:25now seems to rest in the hands of the independent TDs.
3:28:25 > 3:28:28What is now going to happen is intensive work will now
3:28:28 > 3:28:34continue in relation to the text of the agreement between both parties.
3:28:34 > 3:28:36That will then be shared with the Taoiseach
3:28:36 > 3:28:39and with the leader of Deanna Fail
3:28:39 > 3:28:41and then with our respective Parliamentary party meetings.
3:28:41 > 3:28:44But we have concluded our work here.
3:28:44 > 3:28:50It has been a tortuous and long and difficult at times process
3:28:50 > 3:28:56but I think that the formation of a minority government and the document
3:28:56 > 3:29:02that we can hopefully agree in the next two days can become a blueprint
3:29:02 > 3:29:06for the formation of future minority governments in this jurisdiction.
3:29:06 > 3:29:08We're determined to implement the policies
3:29:08 > 3:29:10that we put forward in the Independent Alliance,
3:29:10 > 3:29:12but we're going in there to fight on these issues.
3:29:12 > 3:29:14Do you think you're going to be successful?
3:29:14 > 3:29:16Do you think you will see yourselves in government?
3:29:16 > 3:29:17Well, we're very optimistic,
3:29:17 > 3:29:20but there are obviously a lot of things
3:29:20 > 3:29:23which we need to go into the final document which are radical,
3:29:23 > 3:29:27responsible, but which we've got to achieve. We've got to be able
3:29:27 > 3:29:31to show that Irish politics has changed by this time next week.
3:29:31 > 3:29:34So, let's go to our Dublin correspondent, Shane Harrison,
3:29:34 > 3:29:35for the very latest.
3:29:35 > 3:29:40Shane, hello to you. It's been 65 days since the election now.
3:29:40 > 3:29:43Against the odds, Fine Gael and Fianna Fail have done the deal.
3:29:43 > 3:29:45But of course it's not the end of the matter.
3:29:45 > 3:29:47What do you think happens next?
3:29:47 > 3:29:49Well, both Parliamentary parties
3:29:49 > 3:29:52have to endorse the deal, but that's a given.
3:29:52 > 3:29:55Then it's up to Fine Gael to persuade enough independent TDs
3:29:55 > 3:29:58to support the particular arrangement.
3:29:58 > 3:30:03That means getting Enda Kenny's vote up from 52 to 58,
3:30:03 > 3:30:07with Fianna Fail abstaining, on Wednesday or shortly thereafter.
3:30:07 > 3:30:09Now, some of those independent TDs may be tempted
3:30:09 > 3:30:13to try and drive a hard bargain, but the people
3:30:13 > 3:30:15who want a general election least are the independents,
3:30:15 > 3:30:17and Enda Kenny has a bit of a carrot,
3:30:17 > 3:30:21he's got up to five jobs to offer the independents,
3:30:21 > 3:30:24either in cabinet or at junior ministerial level, so I would say
3:30:24 > 3:30:27on balance it's more likely that a government will be formed than not.
3:30:27 > 3:30:30So, Shane, if there is a deal with the independents,
3:30:30 > 3:30:33then it's to last three budgets,
3:30:33 > 3:30:36this plan between Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, what are the odds,
3:30:36 > 3:30:39do you think, of that actually happening?
3:30:39 > 3:30:42Cos three budgets, it's quite a long time potentially.
3:30:42 > 3:30:46It is indeed. There's a lot of talk here about new politics,
3:30:46 > 3:30:47Danish-style politics,
3:30:47 > 3:30:51because the Danes are used to minority governments
3:30:51 > 3:30:54and that means more consensus between the political parties,
3:30:54 > 3:30:57TDs having more of an input into legislation
3:30:57 > 3:31:01and holding the Executive or the Government more to account.
3:31:01 > 3:31:04But it's not going to be the end of confrontational politics,
3:31:04 > 3:31:07by any means, and as Harold Macmillan once said,
3:31:07 > 3:31:11"Events, dear boy, events," can unhinge and damage
3:31:11 > 3:31:13whatever arrangement may emerge.
3:31:13 > 3:31:15And of course, while the country
3:31:15 > 3:31:17may be administered, will it be governed?
3:31:17 > 3:31:20Will this new arrangement be in a position to take tough decisions,
3:31:20 > 3:31:22for example, if there's another economic crash?
3:31:22 > 3:31:24That's a bridge which will have to be crossed,
3:31:24 > 3:31:27and we don't yet know whether they will be able to do so.
3:31:27 > 3:31:28And, Shane, just briefly and finally,
3:31:28 > 3:31:30as I said there in the introduction,
3:31:30 > 3:31:32Enda Kenny was described as a political corpse
3:31:32 > 3:31:35just a few weeks ago, and we talked about that.
3:31:35 > 3:31:39He could be re-elected as Taoiseach on Wednesday,
3:31:39 > 3:31:43but how long do you think he will survive even within his own party?
3:31:43 > 3:31:45Well, Enda Kenny has a chance to make history
3:31:45 > 3:31:49and become the first Fine Gael Taoiseach to be re-elected after
3:31:49 > 3:31:52a general election, but I doubt very much if he'll be Taoiseach
3:31:52 > 3:31:53this time next year,
3:31:53 > 3:31:56and I'd be of the view that Francis Fitzgerald,
3:31:56 > 3:31:59Simon Coveney and Leo Varadkar would be the same mind.
3:31:59 > 3:32:01OK, thanks, Shane, for that.
3:32:01 > 3:32:04You're going to be busy this week in Dublin, no doubt.
3:32:04 > 3:32:06Back to Belfast, though, and the elections to Stormont
3:32:06 > 3:32:09with our professors, Rick Wilford and Deirdre Heenan.
3:32:09 > 3:32:10Hello to you both.
3:32:10 > 3:32:12You've been listening and watching with interest
3:32:12 > 3:32:15to the political discussion that we've just had on the programme
3:32:15 > 3:32:17with the five main parties.
3:32:17 > 3:32:19Deirdre, what did you make of it,
3:32:19 > 3:32:22the issue of the sham fight between the DUP and Sinn Fein
3:32:22 > 3:32:25on the one hand, but this draft programme for government,
3:32:25 > 3:32:26as some people see it on the other?
3:32:26 > 3:32:29How does it stack up from where you're sitting?
3:32:29 > 3:32:32Well, Danny Kennedy referred a number of times to something
3:32:32 > 3:32:34that was pre-cooked, and there is a feeling of,
3:32:34 > 3:32:37"Here's one I made earlier" when you look at the manifestos.
3:32:37 > 3:32:39I think, though, that isn't the issue
3:32:39 > 3:32:42and it isn't something we really should have our focus on.
3:32:42 > 3:32:44If you're going to write a manifesto, in many cases,
3:32:44 > 3:32:46they are motherhood and apple pie.
3:32:46 > 3:32:48It's more money for health, it's more money for education,
3:32:48 > 3:32:51it's more money in infrastructure, but it's very light on detail.
3:32:51 > 3:32:53Where is the money going to come from?
3:32:53 > 3:32:56How are we going to finance at the same time we're going to cut taxes?
3:32:56 > 3:32:57It just doesn't stack up.
3:32:57 > 3:33:00I think the biggest issue, though, in those manifestos is,
3:33:00 > 3:33:04both main parties have hung their hats clearly on corporation tax
3:33:04 > 3:33:07as a game changer, the reduced rate of corporation tax.
3:33:07 > 3:33:10What they have not discussed at all, the elephant in the room is
3:33:10 > 3:33:13how are they going to deal with the cuts to the block grant?
3:33:13 > 3:33:16So we know for certainty there will be cuts to the block grant.
3:33:16 > 3:33:19We know that the money will come from front-line services,
3:33:19 > 3:33:21so there's a severe lack of long-term financial planning.
3:33:21 > 3:33:23I mean, it is interesting, Rick,
3:33:23 > 3:33:25some people have said during this campaign,
3:33:25 > 3:33:27"What, in fact, is the point of a manifesto anyway?",
3:33:27 > 3:33:30because people make all sorts of pledges and commitments
3:33:30 > 3:33:32and they talk about all sorts of strategies but in fact,
3:33:32 > 3:33:35none of this is going to come out in the wash until there has been
3:33:35 > 3:33:38a detailed discussion for up to two weeks on a programme for government.
3:33:38 > 3:33:41So does a manifesto pledge mean anything?
3:33:41 > 3:33:43Well, it's a series of wish lists, in a way.
3:33:43 > 3:33:47I certainly agree with Deirdre when she says these are largely uncosted.
3:33:47 > 3:33:51And we saw with Gerard Diver's unfortunate, car accident interview.
3:33:51 > 3:33:53- And he wasn't the only one.- No, he wasn't. I think Conor Murphy
3:33:53 > 3:33:57had an equally troublesome time on Friday in trying to explain
3:33:57 > 3:34:00this particular point about if the block grant is reduced
3:34:00 > 3:34:02to pay for corporation tax cuts,
3:34:02 > 3:34:07where are the cuts in departmental spending going to fall?
3:34:07 > 3:34:08Is it a sham fight?
3:34:08 > 3:34:12No, I went through the five major parties' manifestos,
3:34:12 > 3:34:14and there's an extraordinary degree of convergence
3:34:14 > 3:34:17amongst and across all five, actually.
3:34:17 > 3:34:21But there's particular convergence between Sinn Fein and the DUP,
3:34:21 > 3:34:24so Danny Kennedy may be forgiven for thinking this is something
3:34:24 > 3:34:25which is already, as it were,
3:34:25 > 3:34:28Blue-Peter-style, been cooked up earlier.
3:34:28 > 3:34:31But you're right, Mark, we're into a new phase now,
3:34:31 > 3:34:36because post-election, we have up to two weeks of interparty negotiation
3:34:36 > 3:34:39which will presumably be very leaky.
3:34:39 > 3:34:42People will be appearing in front of cameras, and we'll find out
3:34:42 > 3:34:45exactly what the temper of those talks are
3:34:45 > 3:34:47and where the likely lines of agreement may fall.
3:34:47 > 3:34:50Deirdre, on the other issues, moral and social issues,
3:34:50 > 3:34:52we just touched on it towards the end of our discussion,
3:34:52 > 3:34:54do you think there is a direction of travel?
3:34:54 > 3:34:57Is that an issue, or are those issues which will find their way
3:34:57 > 3:34:59back onto the order paper at Stormont,
3:34:59 > 3:35:03or will the parties focus on the big issues like education
3:35:03 > 3:35:05and corporation tax and the health service?
3:35:05 > 3:35:08Well, I don't think we're going to find agreement on the moral issues
3:35:08 > 3:35:10and they shouldn't be reduced to sound bites.
3:35:10 > 3:35:13We need that informed discussion around abortion,
3:35:13 > 3:35:15same-sex marriage, which is missing. We haven't had it.
3:35:15 > 3:35:19All we hear are sound bites about compassion in some circumstances
3:35:19 > 3:35:20and not other circumstances.
3:35:20 > 3:35:23The actual underlying moral and ethical issues
3:35:23 > 3:35:24have not been discussed.
3:35:24 > 3:35:27I think, though, the majority of people at home
3:35:27 > 3:35:29want health and education on the agenda.
3:35:29 > 3:35:31Our education system is a mess.
3:35:31 > 3:35:3340% of our young children are leaving
3:35:33 > 3:35:38without GCSE English and maths, yet our politicians can stand up
3:35:38 > 3:35:40and say we have a world-class education system.
3:35:40 > 3:35:44I think most people find that offensive, and the nonchalance with
3:35:44 > 3:35:47which our politicians seem to talk about our education system,
3:35:47 > 3:35:48there is a real worry out there
3:35:48 > 3:35:52that we are losing people, they are leaving because they don't
3:35:52 > 3:35:55have prospects here, and that we don't have a skilled workforce.
3:35:55 > 3:35:58And of course I am going to say there's a huge worry that we have
3:35:58 > 3:35:59hung our hat, as I said, on corporation tax
3:35:59 > 3:36:02while at the same time reducing skills
3:36:02 > 3:36:04and reducing money to higher and further education.
3:36:04 > 3:36:08Rick, that brings us on to the issue of voter apathy and turnout.
3:36:08 > 3:36:12Again, does that matter? Some people are fairly relaxed about it
3:36:12 > 3:36:14and say that it's up a bit, it's down a bit.
3:36:14 > 3:36:17Nigel Dodds made the point that it's better here, much better here,
3:36:17 > 3:36:19than in Scotland and Wales, but is that enough?
3:36:19 > 3:36:22In 2011, there were five constituencies
3:36:22 > 3:36:24where the turnout fell below 50%,
3:36:24 > 3:36:28and they were largely in the east of Northern Ireland.
3:36:28 > 3:36:29I think there could be more this time.
3:36:29 > 3:36:32I think if the overall turnout falls below 50%,
3:36:32 > 3:36:34then the legitimacy of the Assembly
3:36:34 > 3:36:37and the Executive has to be put in question.
3:36:37 > 3:36:41Now, you might say that's because most people perhaps are content
3:36:41 > 3:36:45or at least complacent, or that they are utterly disaffected.
3:36:45 > 3:36:48And I think where I maybe part company
3:36:48 > 3:36:51a bit with Deirdre on the moral issues, I think that partly
3:36:51 > 3:36:54because there are very strong single-issue campaigns
3:36:54 > 3:36:57across Northern Ireland, particularly, I think,
3:36:57 > 3:36:59on the abortion issue, over in the west
3:36:59 > 3:37:02and certainly certain parts of Belfast,
3:37:02 > 3:37:05there are huge leafleting campaigns on "no change to the law".
3:37:05 > 3:37:07But I was a bit surprised Danny Kennedy actually said
3:37:07 > 3:37:10he was opposed to same-sex relationships, full stop,
3:37:10 > 3:37:12not even same-sex marriage.
3:37:12 > 3:37:13But I think the important part
3:37:13 > 3:37:16is I don't believe that it is voter apathy,
3:37:16 > 3:37:18I think it's voter disengagement, voter anger.
3:37:18 > 3:37:20And I think Claire Hanna was right
3:37:20 > 3:37:22when she said that people are politically engaged,
3:37:22 > 3:37:24they're just not engaged with Stormont because they see
3:37:24 > 3:37:27that it hasn't delivered. We were told by Peter Robinson
3:37:27 > 3:37:28that it would be all about delivery.
3:37:28 > 3:37:30It simply has not delivered for people.
3:37:30 > 3:37:33And as Stephen Farry said, the smaller parties,
3:37:33 > 3:37:34even when they put forward good ideas,
3:37:34 > 3:37:36can simply be vetoed, brushed aside.
3:37:36 > 3:37:38- They can't get their ideas put forward.- OK.
3:37:38 > 3:37:41I agree with Deirdre too about disengagement
3:37:41 > 3:37:44and one of the great white hopes of the election, I suppose,
3:37:44 > 3:37:46is the Good Friday generation of first-time voters,
3:37:46 > 3:37:50whether they'll turn out to vote and we know from polling evidence
3:37:50 > 3:37:52that they are much more liberally minded
3:37:52 > 3:37:55on the moral and ethical issues that we were discussing.
3:37:55 > 3:37:57But getting them out of bed to the opinion polls
3:37:57 > 3:37:59I think is going to be a big problem.
3:37:59 > 3:38:03But they could have a decisive outcome if they were so motivated.
3:38:03 > 3:38:05I think one of the more energetic episodes during the course
3:38:05 > 3:38:08of the campaign was the Good Friday generation programme
3:38:08 > 3:38:10that Tara Mills and Stephen Nolan did
3:38:10 > 3:38:14and you saw a lot of very well-informed, engaged young people.
3:38:14 > 3:38:17How representative they are, though, well, I just hope they are.
3:38:17 > 3:38:20- Getting any of us out of bed might be the issue.- Well, that's true.
3:38:20 > 3:38:22That's what it makes it all so fascinating.
3:38:22 > 3:38:24Thank you both very much indeed. That is it for today.
3:38:24 > 3:38:27Don't forget the leaders' debate on Tuesday at 8pm on BBC One.
3:38:27 > 3:38:29I'll be here with The View, as usual,
3:38:29 > 3:38:33straight after the polls close on Thursday at 10.45.
3:38:33 > 3:38:35And our Election 2016 results coverage
3:38:35 > 3:38:39starts at 3pm on Friday afternoon on BBC One.
3:38:39 > 3:38:40If politics is your thing,
3:38:40 > 3:38:43you're in the right place for the next seven days. Bye-bye.