:00:38. > :00:46.Morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. George Osborne
:00:47. > :00:50.announces a ?50 cut to annual household energy bills. We'll talk
:00:51. > :00:53.to Lib Dem president Tim Farron ahead of the Chancellor's mini
:00:54. > :00:58.budget this week. Net immigration is up for the first
:00:59. > :01:02.time in two years. Labour and the Tories say they want to bring it
:01:03. > :01:12.down, but how? Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper joins us for the
:01:13. > :01:16.Sunday Interview. The harder you shake the pack, the easier it will
:01:17. > :01:19.be for some cornflakes to get to the top. The Mayor of London says
:01:20. > :01:21.inequality and greed are essential to spur economic activity. The
:01:22. > :01:25.And coming up here: We reflect on a speech won
:01:26. > :01:28.And coming up here: We reflect on a year of loyalist protests, we've a
:01:29. > :01:30.report from the TUV's annual conference and we look at Alex
:01:31. > :01:33.Salmond's "blueprint for Scottish independence".
:01:34. > :01:46.week, another strategy? Can this one deliver?
:01:47. > :01:49.And with me throughout today's programme, well, we've shaken the
:01:50. > :01:55.packet and look who's risen to the top. Or did we open it at the
:01:56. > :01:58.bottom? Helen Lewis, Janan Ganesh and Sam Coates. All three will be
:01:59. > :02:07.tweeting throughout the programme using the hashtag #bbcsp. So, after
:02:08. > :02:10.weeks in which Ed Miliband's promise to freeze energy prices has set the
:02:11. > :02:12.Westminster agenda, the Coalition Government is finally coming up with
:02:13. > :02:14.its answer. This Government is finally coming up with
:02:15. > :02:18.Chancellor George Osborne explained how he plans to cut household energy
:02:19. > :02:21.bills by an average of fifty quid. What we're going to do is roll back
:02:22. > :02:26.the levees that are placed by government on people's electricity
:02:27. > :02:30.bills. This will mean that for the average bill payer, they will have
:02:31. > :02:37.?50 of those electricity and gas bills. That will help families. We
:02:38. > :02:41.are doing it in the way that government can do it. We are
:02:42. > :02:44.controlling the cost that families incurred because of government
:02:45. > :02:47.policies. We are doing it in a way that will not damage the environment
:02:48. > :02:54.or reduce our commitment to dealing with climate change. We will not
:02:55. > :02:59.produce commit men to helping low-income families with the cost of
:03:00. > :03:03.living. Janan, we are finally seeing the coalition begin to play its hand
:03:04. > :03:07.in response to the Ed Miliband freeze? They have been trying to
:03:08. > :03:08.in response to the Ed Miliband respond for almost ten weeks and
:03:09. > :03:15.older responses have been quite fiddly. We are going to take a bit
:03:16. > :03:19.of tax year, put it onto general taxation, have a conversation with
:03:20. > :03:24.the energy companies, engineered a rebate of some kind, this is not
:03:25. > :03:29.very vivid. The advantage of the idea that they have announced
:03:30. > :03:35.overnight is that it is clear and it has a nice round figure attached to
:03:36. > :03:41.it, ?50. The chief of staff of President Obama, he said, if you are
:03:42. > :03:48.explaining, you're losing. The genius of this idea is that it does
:03:49. > :03:52.not require explanation. He would not drawn this morning on what
:03:53. > :03:55.agreement he had with the energy companies, and whether this would
:03:56. > :04:00.fall through to the bottom of the bill, but the way he spoke, saying,
:04:01. > :04:04.I am not going to pre-empt what the energy companies say, that suggests
:04:05. > :04:11.he has something up his sleeve. Yes, I thought so. The energy companies
:04:12. > :04:15.have made this so badly for so long. It would be awful if he announced
:04:16. > :04:20.this and the energy companies said, we are going to keep this money for
:04:21. > :04:24.ourselves. I do not think he is that stupid. The energy companies have an
:04:25. > :04:30.incentive to go along with this, don't they? My worry is that I am
:04:31. > :04:36.not sure how much it will be within the opinion polls. I think people
:04:37. > :04:41.might expect this now, it is not a new thing, it is not an exciting
:04:42. > :04:47.thing. Say in the markets, they may have priced the ten already. If by
:04:48. > :04:53.Thursday of this week, he is able to say, I have a ?50 cut coming to your
:04:54. > :04:56.bill. The energy companies have guaranteed that this will fall
:04:57. > :05:01.through onto your energy bill, and they have indicated to me that they
:05:02. > :05:07.themselves will not put up energy prices through 2014, has he shot the
:05:08. > :05:12.Ed Miliband Fox? I think he has a couple of challenges. It is still
:05:13. > :05:16.very hard. This is an answer for the next 12 months but did is no chance
:05:17. > :05:20.announced that Labour will stop saying they are going to freeze
:05:21. > :05:25.prices in the next Parliament. He will say, I have not just frozen
:05:26. > :05:30.them, I have done that as well and I have cut them. When people look at
:05:31. > :05:34.their energy bills, they are going up by more than ?50. This is a
:05:35. > :05:42.reduction in the amount that they are going up overall. Year on 08
:05:43. > :05:49.will be for George Osborne. He will have to come up with something this
:05:50. > :05:52.time next year. The detail in the Sunday papers reveals that George
:05:53. > :05:57.Osborne is trying to get the energy companies to put on bills that ?50
:05:58. > :06:02.has been knocked off your bill because of a reduction by the
:06:03. > :06:06.government. He is trying to get the energy companies to do his political
:06:07. > :06:10.bidding for him. It will be interesting to see if they go along
:06:11. > :06:15.with that, because then we will know how cross the arm with Ed Miliband.
:06:16. > :06:19.Let's get another perspective. Joining me now from Kendal in the
:06:20. > :06:24.Lake District is the president of the Liberal Democrats, Tim Farron.
:06:25. > :06:32.Welcome to the Sunday Politics. Good morning. Let me ask you this, the
:06:33. > :06:34.coalition is rowing back on green taxes, I do comfortable with that or
:06:35. > :06:39.is it taxes, I do comfortable with that or
:06:40. > :06:44.against? I am very comfortable with the fact we are protecting for the
:06:45. > :06:50.money is going. I am open to where the money comes from. The notion
:06:51. > :06:53.that we should stop insulating the homes of elderly people or stop
:06:54. > :06:57.investing in British manufacturing in terms of green industry, that is
:06:58. > :07:02.something that I resolutely oppose, but I am pleased that the funding
:07:03. > :07:07.will be made available for all that. You cannot ignore the fact that for
:07:08. > :07:12.a whole range of reasons, mostly down to the actions of the energy
:07:13. > :07:16.companies, you have prices that are shooting up and affecting lots of
:07:17. > :07:21.people, making life hard. You cannot ignore that. If we fund the
:07:22. > :07:27.installation of homes for older people and others, if we protect
:07:28. > :07:30.British manufacturing jobs, and raise the money through general
:07:31. > :07:37.taxation, I am comfortable with that. It is not clear that is going
:07:38. > :07:41.to happen. It looks like the eco-scheme, whereby the energy
:07:42. > :07:44.companies pay for the installation of those on below-average incomes,
:07:45. > :07:49.they will spin that out over four years, not two years, and one
:07:50. > :07:54.estimate is that that will cost 10,000 jobs. You're always boasting
:07:55. > :08:03.about your commitment to green jobs, how do square that? I do not believe
:08:04. > :08:07.that. The roll-out will be longer. The number of houses reached will be
:08:08. > :08:13.greater and that is a good thing. My take is that it will not affect the
:08:14. > :08:18.number of jobs. People talk about green levies. There has been
:08:19. > :08:25.disparaging language about that sort of thing. There are 2 million people
:08:26. > :08:33.in this country in the lowest income families and they get ?230 off their
:08:34. > :08:37.energy bills because of what isn't -- because of what is disparaging
:08:38. > :08:44.the refer to as green stuff, shall we call it. There will be more
:08:45. > :08:49.properties covered. We both know that your party is being pushed into
:08:50. > :08:55.this by the Tories. You would not be doing this off your own bad. You are
:08:56. > :09:04.in coalition with people who have jettisoned their green Prudential
:09:05. > :09:12.is? -- credentials. You have made my point quite well. David Cameron's
:09:13. > :09:15.panicked response to this over the last few months was to ditch all
:09:16. > :09:19.panicked response to this over the green stuff. It has been a job to
:09:20. > :09:24.make sure that we hold him to his pledges and the green cord of this
:09:25. > :09:26.government. That is why we are not scrapping the investment, we are
:09:27. > :09:34.making sure it is funded from general taxation. I am talking to
:09:35. > :09:39.you from Kendal. Lots of people struggle to pay their energy bills.
:09:40. > :09:42.But all these things pale into insignificance compared to the
:09:43. > :09:47.threat of climate change and we must hold the Prime Minister to account
:09:48. > :09:50.on this issue. Argue reconciled to the idea that as long as you're in
:09:51. > :09:59.coalition with the Tories you will never get a mansion tax? I am not
:10:00. > :10:02.reconciled to it. We are trying to give off other tax cut to the lowest
:10:03. > :10:06.income people. What about the mansion tax? That would
:10:07. > :10:11.income people. What about the potentially paid for by another view
:10:12. > :10:15.source of finance. That would be that the wealthy... We know that is
:10:16. > :10:21.what you want, but you're not going to get that? We will keep fighting
:10:22. > :10:32.for it. It is extremely important. We can show where we will get the
:10:33. > :10:36.money from. I know that is the adamant. That is not what I asked
:10:37. > :10:42.you. Ed Balls and Labour run in favour of a mansion tax, have you
:10:43. > :10:46.talked to them about it? The honest answer is I have not. It is
:10:47. > :10:55.interesting that they have come round to supporting our policy
:10:56. > :10:58.having rejected it in power. So if Labour was the largest party in
:10:59. > :11:01.parliament but not in power, you would have no problem agreeing with
:11:02. > :11:06.parliament but not in power, you a mansion tax as part of the deal?
:11:07. > :11:10.If the arithmetic falls in that way and that is the will of the British
:11:11. > :11:17.people, fear taxes on those who are wealthiest, stuff that is fear,
:11:18. > :11:20.which includes wealth taxes, in order to fund more reductions for
:11:21. > :11:26.those people on lowest incomes, that is the sort of thing that we might
:11:27. > :11:33.reach agreement on. You voted with Labour on the spare room subsidy.
:11:34. > :11:40.Again, that would be job done in any future coalition talks with Labour,
:11:41. > :11:44.correct? I take the view that the spare room subsidy, whilst entirely
:11:45. > :11:50.fail in principle, in practice it has caused immense hardship. I want
:11:51. > :11:55.to see that changed. There are many people in government to share my
:11:56. > :11:59.view on that. So does Labour. The problem was largely caused Labour
:12:00. > :12:06.because they oversaw an increase in housing costs both 3.5 times while
:12:07. > :12:09.they were in power. The government was forced into a position to tidy
:12:10. > :12:22.up an appalling mess that Labour left. You voted with Labour against
:12:23. > :12:27.it, and also, you want... No, I voted with the party conference.
:12:28. > :12:39.Let's not dance on the head of the ten. Maybe they voted with me. -- on
:12:40. > :12:45.the head of a pin. You are also in favour of a 50% top rate of income
:12:46. > :12:46.tax, so you and Labour are that one there as well? No, I take the view
:12:47. > :12:52.tax, so you and Labour are that one that the top rate of income tax is a
:12:53. > :13:00.fluid thing. All taxation levels are temporary. Nick Clegg said that when
:13:01. > :13:03.the 50p rate came down to 45, that was a rather foolish price tag
:13:04. > :13:09.George Osborne asked for in return for as increasing the threshold and
:13:10. > :13:14.letting several million people out of paying income tax at the bottom.
:13:15. > :13:19.So you agree with Labour? In favour of rising the tax to 50p. I take the
:13:20. > :13:25.view that we should keep our minds open on that. It is not the income
:13:26. > :13:31.tax level that bothers me, it is whether the wealthy pay their fresh
:13:32. > :13:32.air. If that can be done through other taxes, then that is something
:13:33. > :13:43.that I am happy with. -- their fair other taxes, then that is something
:13:44. > :13:48.share. Given your position on the top rate of tax, on the spare room
:13:49. > :13:52.subsidy, how does the prospect of another five years of coalition with
:13:53. > :13:59.the Tories strike you? The answer is, you react with whatever you have
:14:00. > :14:04.about you to what the electorate hand you. Whatever happens after the
:14:05. > :14:11.next election, you have got to respect the will of the people. Yes,
:14:12. > :14:17.but how do you feel about it? We know about this, I am asking for
:14:18. > :14:20.your feeling. Does your heart left or does your heart fall at the
:14:21. > :14:26.prospect of another five years with the Tories? My heart would always
:14:27. > :14:31.follow the prospect of anything other than a majority of Liberal
:14:32. > :14:35.Democrat government. Your heart must be permanently in your shoes then.
:14:36. > :14:40.Something like that, but when all is said and done, we accept the will of
:14:41. > :14:46.the electorate. When you stand for election, you have got to put up
:14:47. > :14:50.with what the electorate say. I have not found coalition as difficult as
:14:51. > :14:55.you might suggest. It is about people who have to disagree and
:14:56. > :14:58.agree to differ. You work with people in your daily life that you
:14:59. > :15:04.disagree with. It is what grown-ups do. A lot of people in your party
:15:05. > :15:09.think that your positioning yourself to be the left-wing candidate in a
:15:10. > :15:16.post-Nick Clegg leadership contest. They think it is blatant
:15:17. > :15:29.manoeuvring. One senior figure says, this is about you. Which bit of the
:15:30. > :15:35.sanctimonious, treacherous little man is there not to like? What can I
:15:36. > :15:39.see in response to that. My job is to promote the Liberal Democrats. I
:15:40. > :15:49.have to do my best to consider what I'd defend to be right. By and
:15:50. > :15:54.large, my position as an MP in the Lake District, but also as the
:15:55. > :15:58.president of the party, is to reflect the will of people outside
:15:59. > :16:05.the Westminster village. That is the important thing to do. Thank you for
:16:06. > :16:09.joining us. David Cameron has said he wants to get it down to the tens
:16:10. > :16:12.of thousands, Ed Miliband has admitted New Labour "got it wrong",
:16:13. > :16:14.and Nick Clegg wants to be "zero-tolerant towards abuse". Yes,
:16:15. > :16:18.immigration is back on the political "zero-tolerant towards abuse". Yes,
:16:19. > :16:22.earlier this week showing that net migration is on the rise for the
:16:23. > :16:25.first time in two years. And that's not the only reason politicians are
:16:26. > :16:29.talking about it again. The issue of immigration has come
:16:30. > :16:34.into sharp focus because of concerns about the number of remaining ins
:16:35. > :16:39.and Bulgarians that can come to the UK next year. EU citizenship grants
:16:40. > :16:45.the right to free movement within the EU. But when Bulgaria and
:16:46. > :16:48.Romania joined in 2007, the government took up its right to
:16:49. > :16:58.apply temporary restrictions on movement. They must be lifted
:16:59. > :16:58.apply temporary restrictions on end of this year. According to the
:16:59. > :17:03.2011 census, about one eyed 1 million of the population in England
:17:04. > :17:07.and Wales is made up of people from countries who joined the EU in 2004.
:17:08. > :17:13.The government has played down expectations that the skill of
:17:14. > :17:17.migration could be repeated. This week David Cameron announced new
:17:18. > :17:21.restrictions on the ability of EU migrants to claim benefits. That was
:17:22. > :17:32.two, send a message. That prompted criticism is that the UK risks being
:17:33. > :17:39.seen as a nasty country. Yvette Cooper joins me now for the Sunday
:17:40. > :17:42.interview. Welcome to the Sunday Politics, Yvette Cooper. You
:17:43. > :17:47.criticised the coalition for not acting sooner on immigration from
:17:48. > :17:50.Romania and Bulgaria but the timetable for the unrestricted
:17:51. > :17:55.arrival in January was agreed under Labour many years ago, and given the
:17:56. > :17:58.battle that you had with the Polish and the Hungarians, what
:17:59. > :18:00.preparations did you make in power? We think that we should learn from
:18:01. > :18:07.some of the We think that we should learn from
:18:08. > :18:09.with migration. It would have been better to have transitional controls
:18:10. > :18:15.in place and look at the impact of what happened. But what preparations
:18:16. > :18:17.did you make in power? We set out a series of measures that the
:18:18. > :18:24.Government still had time to bring in. It is important that this should
:18:25. > :18:28.be a calm and measured debate. There was time to bring in measures around
:18:29. > :18:33.benefit restrictions, for example, and looking at the impact on the
:18:34. > :18:37.labour market, to make sure you do not have exploitation of cheap
:18:38. > :18:41.migrant Labour which is bad for everyone. I know that but I have
:18:42. > :18:46.asked you before and I am asking again, what did you do? We got
:18:47. > :18:51.things wrong in Government. I understand that I am not arguing.
:18:52. > :18:58.You are criticising them not preparing, a legitimate criticism,
:18:59. > :19:04.but what did you do in power? Well, I did think we did enough. Did you
:19:05. > :19:11.do anything? We signed the agency workers directive but too slowly. We
:19:12. > :19:14.needed measures like that. We did support things like the social
:19:15. > :19:18.chapter and the minimum wage, but I have said before that we did not do
:19:19. > :19:23.enough and that is why we recommended the measures in March. I
:19:24. > :19:28.understand that is what you did in opposition and I take that. I put
:19:29. > :19:32.the general point to you that given your failure to introduce controls
:19:33. > :19:37.on the countries that joined in 2004, alone among the major EU
:19:38. > :19:42.economies we did that, should we not keep an embarrassed silence on these
:19:43. > :19:46.matters? You have no credibility. I think you have got to talk about
:19:47. > :19:47.immigration. One of the things we did not do in Government
:19:48. > :19:56.discussed immigration and the concerns people have and the
:19:57. > :19:59.long-term benefits that we know have come from people who have come to
:20:00. > :20:01.Britain over many generations contributing to Britain and having a
:20:02. > :20:04.big impact. I think we recognise that there are things that we did
:20:05. > :20:08.wrong, but it would be irresponsible for us not to join the debate and
:20:09. > :20:13.suggest sensible, practical measures that you can introduce now to
:20:14. > :20:18.address the concerns that people have, but also make sure that the
:20:19. > :20:20.system is fair and managed. Immigration is important to Britain
:20:21. > :20:25.but it does have to be controlled and managed in the right way. Let's
:20:26. > :20:30.remind ourselves of your record on immigration. The chart you did not
:20:31. > :20:35.consult when in power. This is total net migration per year under Labour.
:20:36. > :20:42.2.2 million of net rise in migration, more than the population
:20:43. > :20:50.of Birmingham, you proud of that? -- twice the population. Are you proud
:20:51. > :20:53.of that or apologising for it? We set the pace of immigration was too
:20:54. > :20:59.fat and the level was too high and it is right to bring migration down.
:21:00. > :21:05.So you think that was wrong? Overruled have been huge benefits
:21:06. > :21:10.from people that have come to Britain and built our biggest
:21:11. > :21:14.businesses. -- overall. They have become Olympic medal winners. But
:21:15. > :21:18.because the pace was too fast, that has had an impact. That was because
:21:19. > :21:22.of the lack of transitional controls from Eastern Europe and it is why we
:21:23. > :21:27.should learn from that and have sensible measures in place now, as
:21:28. > :21:32.part of what has got to be a calm debate. These are net migration
:21:33. > :21:37.figures. They don't often show the full figure. These are the
:21:38. > :21:41.immigration figures coming in. What that chart shows is that in terms of
:21:42. > :21:48.the gross number coming into this country, from the year 2000, it was
:21:49. > :21:54.half a million a year under Labour. Rising to 600,000 by the time you
:21:55. > :21:57.were out of power. A lot of people coming into these crowded islands,
:21:58. > :22:02.particularly since most of them come to London and the South East. Was
:22:03. > :22:07.that intentional? Was that out of control? Is that what you are now
:22:08. > :22:12.apologising for? What we said was that the Government got the figures
:22:13. > :22:16.wrong on the migration from Eastern Europe. If you remember particularly
:22:17. > :22:21.there was the issue of what happened with not having transitional
:22:22. > :22:25.controls in place. The Government didn't expect the number of people
:22:26. > :22:31.coming to the country to be the way it was. And so obviously mistakes
:22:32. > :22:34.were made. We have recognised that. We have also got to recognise that
:22:35. > :22:39.this is something that has happened in countries all over the world. We
:22:40. > :22:42.travel and trade far more than ever. We have an increasingly globalised
:22:43. > :22:46.economy. Other European countries have been affected in the same way,
:22:47. > :22:51.and America, and other developing countries affected in the same way
:22:52. > :22:56.by the scale of migration. I am trying to work out whether the
:22:57. > :23:00.numbers were intentional or if you lost control. The key thing that we
:23:01. > :23:05.have said many times and I have already said it to you many times,
:23:06. > :23:07.Andrew, that we should have a transitional controls in place on
:23:08. > :23:13.Eastern Europe. I think that would have had an impact on them level of
:23:14. > :23:16.migration. We also should have brought in the points -based system
:23:17. > :23:19.earlier. We did bring that in towards the end and it did
:23:20. > :23:23.earlier. We did bring that in the level of low skilled migration
:23:24. > :23:26.because there are different kinds of migration. University students
:23:27. > :23:30.coming to Britain brings in billions of pounds of investment. On the
:23:31. > :23:33.other hand, low skilled migration can have a serious impact on the
:23:34. > :23:40.jobs market, pay levels and so on at the low skilled end of the labour
:23:41. > :23:43.market. We have to distinguish between different kinds of
:23:44. > :23:47.migration. You keep trying to excuse the figures by talking about the
:23:48. > :23:52.lack of transitional controls. Can we skip the chart I was going to go
:23:53. > :23:58.to? The next one. Under Labour, this is the source of where migrants came
:23:59. > :24:02.from. The main source was not the accession countries or the remainder
:24:03. > :24:07.of Europe. Overwhelmingly they were from the African Commonwealth, and
:24:08. > :24:10.the Indian subcontinent. Overwhelmingly, these numbers are
:24:11. > :24:13.the Indian subcontinent. nothing to do with transitional
:24:14. > :24:18.controls. You can control that immigration entirely because they
:24:19. > :24:23.are not part of the EU. Was that a mistake? First of all, the big
:24:24. > :24:29.increase was in the accession groups. Not according to the chart.
:24:30. > :24:32.In terms of the increase, the changes that happened. Secondly, in
:24:33. > :24:35.answer to the question that you just asked me, we should also have
:24:36. > :24:40.introduced the points -based system at an earlier stage. Thirdly there
:24:41. > :24:44.has been a big increase in the number of university students coming
:24:45. > :24:47.to Britain and they have brought billions of pounds of investment. At
:24:48. > :24:51.the moment the Government is not distinguishing, it is just using the
:24:52. > :24:55.figure of net migration. And that is starting to go up again, as you said
:24:56. > :24:59.in the introduction, but the problem is that it treats all kinds of
:25:00. > :25:04.migration is aimed. It does not address illegal immigration, which
:25:05. > :25:08.is a problem, but it treats university graduates coming to
:25:09. > :25:13.Britain in the same way as low skilled workers. If Labour get back
:25:14. > :25:17.into power, is it your ambition to bring down immigration? We have
:25:18. > :25:22.already said it is too high and we would support measures to bring it
:25:23. > :25:26.down. You would bring it down? There is something called student visas,
:25:27. > :25:31.which is not included in the figures, and it does not include
:25:32. > :25:41.university graduates, and it is a figure that has increased
:25:42. > :25:44.substantially in recent years. They come for short-term study but they
:25:45. > :25:47.do not even have to prove that they come for a college course. They do
:25:48. > :25:49.not even have to have a place to come. Those visas should be
:25:50. > :25:52.restricted to prevent abuse of the system and that is in line with a
:25:53. > :25:53.recommendation from the Inspectorate and that is the kind of practical
:25:54. > :25:56.thing that we could do. Can and that is the kind of practical
:25:57. > :26:01.us a ballpark figure of how much immigration would fall? You have
:26:02. > :26:06.seen the mess that Theresa May has got into with her figures. She made
:26:07. > :26:29.a target that it is clear to me that she will not meet. I think that is
:26:30. > :26:32.right. She will not meet it. Can you give as a ballpark figure by which
:26:33. > :26:35.we can judge you? If she had been more sensible and taken more time to
:26:36. > :26:37.listen to experts and decide what measures should be targeted, then
:26:38. > :26:40.she would not be in this mess. You cannot give me a figure? She has
:26:41. > :26:43.chosen net migration. She has set a target, without ifs and buts. I
:26:44. > :26:45.think it is important not to have a massive gap between the rhetoric and
:26:46. > :26:49.reality. Not to make promises on numbers which are not responsible.
:26:50. > :26:53.OK, you won't give me a figure. Fine. Moving on to crime. 10,000
:26:54. > :26:58.front line police jobs have gone since 2010 but crime continues to
:26:59. > :27:02.fall. 7% down last year alone. When you told the Labour conference that
:27:03. > :27:07.you do not cut crime by cutting the police, you were wrong. I think the
:27:08. > :27:12.Government is being very complacent about what is happening to crime.
:27:13. > :27:15.Crime patterns are changing. There has been an exponential increase,
:27:16. > :27:24.and that is in the words of the police, in online crime. We have
:27:25. > :27:29.also seen, for example, domestic violence going up, but prosecutions
:27:30. > :27:34.dropping dramatically. There is a serious impact as a result of not
:27:35. > :27:37.having 10,000 police in place. You have talked about the exponential
:27:38. > :27:42.increase in online and economic crime. If those are the big growth
:27:43. > :27:48.areas, why have bobbies on the beat? That would make no difference. It is
:27:49. > :27:51.about an approach to policing that has been incredibly successful over
:27:52. > :27:55.many years, which Labour introduced, which is neighbourhood policing in
:27:56. > :27:59.the community is working hard with communities to prevent crime. People
:28:00. > :28:04.like to see bobbies on the beat but have you got any evidence that it
:28:05. > :28:08.leads to a reduction in crime? Interestingly, the Lords Stevens
:28:09. > :28:12.commission that we set up, they have reported this week and it has been
:28:13. > :28:17.the equivalent of a Royal commission, looking at the number of
:28:18. > :28:20.people involved in it. Their strong recommendation was that this is
:28:21. > :28:23.about preventing crime but also respectful law and order, working
:28:24. > :28:27.with communities, and so they strongly took the view with all of
:28:28. > :28:31.their expertise and the 30 different universities that they have involved
:28:32. > :28:34.that analysis, the right thing was that analysis, the right thing was
:28:35. > :28:41.to keep bobbies on the beat and not push them cars. Instinctively you
:28:42. > :28:46.would think it was true. More visible policing, less crime. But in
:28:47. > :28:49.all the criminology work, I cannot find the evidence. There is
:28:50. > :28:54.competing work about why there has been a 20 year drop in overall crime
:28:55. > :28:57.and everybody has different opinions on why that has happened. The point
:28:58. > :29:02.about neighbourhood policing is that it is broader than crime-fighting.
:29:03. > :29:09.It is about prevention and community safety. Improving the well-being of
:29:10. > :29:14.communities as well. Will you keep the elected Police Commissioners?
:29:15. > :29:19.Big sigh! What the report said was that the system is flawed. We raised
:29:20. > :29:25.concern about this at the beginning. You will remember at the elections,
:29:26. > :29:30.Theresa May's flagship policy, at the elections they cost ?100 million
:29:31. > :29:36.and there was 15% turnout. You have to have a system of accountability
:29:37. > :29:41.at the police. Three options were presented, all of which are forms.
:29:42. > :29:45.So you have to have reform. It is not whether to have reformed, it is
:29:46. > :29:56.which of those options is the best way to do it. The commission set out
:29:57. > :30:01.a series of options, and I thought that the preferable approach would
:30:02. > :30:05.be collaboration and voluntary mergers. We know they won't
:30:06. > :30:09.volunteer. There have been some collaboration is taking place. I
:30:10. > :30:14.think the issues with police and crime commissioners have fragmented
:30:15. > :30:16.things and made it harder to get collaboration between police
:30:17. > :30:20.forces. Everybody is asking this collaboration between police
:30:21. > :30:28.question, just before you go. What is it like living with a nightmare?
:30:29. > :30:37.Who does all the cooking, so I can't complain! Says Miliband people are
:30:38. > :30:41.wrong, he is a dream cook? He is! In a speech this week, Boris Johnson
:30:42. > :30:44.praised greed and envy as essential for economic progress, and that has
:30:45. > :30:49.got tongues wagging. What is the Mayor of London up to? What is his
:30:50. > :30:59.game plan? Does he even have a game plan and does he know if he has one?
:31:00. > :31:03.Flash photography coming up. Boris. In many ways I can leave it there.
:31:04. > :31:15.You'd know who I meant. And if you didn't, the unruly mop of blonde
:31:16. > :31:17.hair would tell you, the language. Ping-pong was invented on the dining
:31:18. > :31:35.tables of England. Somehow pulling off the ridiculous to the sublime.
:31:36. > :31:38.It is going to go zoink off the scale! But often having to speed
:31:39. > :31:43.away from the whiff-whaff of scandal. Boris, are you going to
:31:44. > :31:46.save your manage? There's always been a question about
:31:47. > :31:49.him and his as role as mayor and another prized position, as hinted
:31:50. > :31:55.to the Tory faithful this year at conference, discussing former French
:31:56. > :32:03.Prime Minister Alan Juppe. -- Alain Juppe. He told me he was going to be
:32:04. > :32:08.the mayor of Bordeaux. I think he may have been mayor well he was
:32:09. > :32:14.Prime Minister, it is the kind of thing they do in funds -- AvD in
:32:15. > :32:23.France. It is a good idea, if you ask me. But is it a joke? He is much
:32:24. > :32:27.more ambitious. Boris wants to be Prime Minister more than anything
:32:28. > :32:35.else. Perhaps more than he wants to be made of London. The ball came
:32:36. > :32:40.loose from the back of the scrum. Of course it would give great thing to
:32:41. > :32:46.have a crack at, but it is not going to happen. He might be right. First,
:32:47. > :32:48.the Conservatives have a leader, another Old Etonian, Oxford,
:32:49. > :32:55.Bullingdon chap and he has the job Boris might like a crack at. What do
:32:56. > :32:58.you do with a problem like Boris? It is one of the great
:32:59. > :33:03.you do with a problem like Boris? It Tory politics that for Boris Johnson
:33:04. > :33:07.to succeed, David Cameron must feel. Boris needs David Cameron to lose so
:33:08. > :33:11.that he can stand a chance of becoming loser. -- becoming leader.
:33:12. > :33:13.And disloyalty is punished by Conservatives. Boris knows the man
:33:14. > :33:16.who brought down Margaret Thatcher. Michael Heseltine, who Boris
:33:17. > :33:22.replaced as MP for Henley, never got her job. In 1986, she took on the
:33:23. > :33:33.member for Henley, always a risky venture. And why might he make such
:33:34. > :33:38.a jibe, because he's won two more elections than the PM. Conservatives
:33:39. > :33:52.like a winner. Boris, against Robert expectations, has won the Mayor of
:33:53. > :33:55.London job twice. -- public. He might've built a following with the
:33:56. > :33:58.grassroots but he's on shakier ground with many Tory MPs, who see
:33:59. > :34:06.him as a selfish clown, unfit for high office. And besides, he's not
:34:07. > :34:09.the only one with king-sized ambition, and Boris and George are
:34:10. > :34:18.not close, however much they may profess unity. There is probably
:34:19. > :34:22.some Chinese expression for a complete and perfect harmony. Ying
:34:23. > :34:26.and yang. But in plain black and white, if Boris has a plan, it's one
:34:27. > :34:31.he can't instigate, and if David Cameron is PM in 2016, it may not be
:34:32. > :34:38.implementable. He'd need a seat and it wouldn't be plain sailing if he
:34:39. > :34:42.did make a leadership bid. My leadership chances, I think I may
:34:43. > :34:46.have told you before, or about as good as my chances of ying
:34:47. > :34:51.reincarnated as a baked bean. Which is probably quite high. So if the
:34:52. > :34:57.job you want with Brown-esque desire is potentially never to be yours
:34:58. > :35:03.what do you do? He is, of course, an American citizen by birth. He was
:35:04. > :35:05.born in New York public hospital, and so he is qualified to be
:35:06. > :35:08.President and so he is qualified to be
:35:09. > :35:12.President of the United States. And you don't need an IQ over 16 to find
:35:13. > :35:18.that the tiniest bit scary. Giles Dilnot reporting. Helen Lewis,
:35:19. > :35:26.Janan Ganesh and Sam Coates are here. Is there a plan for Boris, and
:35:27. > :35:29.if so, what is it? I think the plan is for him to say what he thinks the
:35:30. > :35:35.Tory activist base wants to hear just now. He knows that in 18 months
:35:36. > :35:40.time they can disown it. I think he is wrong, the way the speech has
:35:41. > :35:47.played has a limited number of people. He has cross-party appeal.
:35:48. > :35:50.He has now reconfirmed to people that the Tories are the nasty party
:35:51. > :35:57.and they have been pretending to be modernised. Is it not the truth that
:35:58. > :36:02.he needs David Cameron to lose the 2015 election to become leader in
:36:03. > :36:08.this decade? It is very interesting watching his fortunes wax and wane.
:36:09. > :36:13.It always seems to happen in inverse proportion to how well David Cameron
:36:14. > :36:16.is doing in front of his own party. There is no small element of
:36:17. > :36:21.strategy about what we are doing here. The problem with Boris is that
:36:22. > :36:27.he's popular with the country, but not with the party's MPs and its
:36:28. > :36:31.hard-core supporters. This was an appeal to the grassroots this week.
:36:32. > :36:39.He is not the only potential candidate. If we were in some kind
:36:40. > :36:45.of circumstance where Boris was a runner to replace Mr Cameron, who
:36:46. > :36:53.with the other front the? I think it will skip a generation. The recent
:36:54. > :36:59.intake was ideological assertive. I do not buy the idea that it will be
:37:00. > :37:07.Jeremy Hunt against Michael Gove. I then, that generation will be
:37:08. > :37:14.tainted by being in government. It is interesting, what is he trying to
:37:15. > :37:16.pull? He is ideological. He does not believe in many things, but he
:37:17. > :37:19.believes in a few things quite deeply, and one is the idea of
:37:20. > :37:24.competition, both in business deeply, and one is the idea of
:37:25. > :37:32.academic selection. He has never been squeamish about expressing
:37:33. > :37:37.that. We do make mistakes sometimes, assuming he is entirely political.
:37:38. > :37:41.Look at all the Northern voters who will not vote for the Tories even
:37:42. > :37:48.though they are socially or economic the Conservatives. I do not think he
:37:49. > :37:55.helps. Who in the Tories would help? That is a tough question. To
:37:56. > :38:04.reason me has also been speaking to the hard right. -- Theresa May. I
:38:05. > :38:08.have been out with him at night. It is like dining with a film star.
:38:09. > :38:15.People are queueing up to speak to him. Educational selection is one of
:38:16. > :38:17.the few areas that he can offer. He has gone liberal on immigration, as
:38:18. > :38:37.are made of London would have to. Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics
:38:38. > :38:42.in Northern Ireland. Loyalist protestors still on the streets of
:38:43. > :38:44.Belfast. 12 months on from the start of the flag protests, we'll be
:38:45. > :38:50.looking back at a year of protest and disruption. Joining me with
:38:51. > :38:53.their views, the Alliance MP for East Belfast, Naomi Long, and from
:38:54. > :38:56.our Foyle studio, the DUP MP Gregory Campbell. We'll also hear from
:38:57. > :38:59.yesterday's TUV conference in Cookstown where the party leader,
:39:00. > :39:09.Jim Allister, made a prediction for the 2014 European election contest.
:39:10. > :39:16.I see that the DUP has been suggesting they might even run two
:39:17. > :39:19.candidates. They won't. And with me in studio to discuss that and more
:39:20. > :39:25.are business consultant Joanne Stuart and commentator Seamus Close.
:39:26. > :39:31.Almost exactly a year on from the decision to fly the union flag at
:39:32. > :39:33.Belfast City Hall on designated days, around 2,000 loyalist
:39:34. > :39:36.protestors gathered in the city centre. They breached a Parades'
:39:37. > :39:42.Commission determination which said they had to be clear of the area by
:39:43. > :39:45.half past 12. While there was no trouble in the city centre, a police
:39:46. > :39:48.officer was knocked unconscious during clashes in North Belfast
:39:49. > :39:55.involving protestors. Joining me now is the Alliance Party's Naomi Long
:39:56. > :39:57.and Gregory Campbell of the DUP. Thank you both for joining us. Naomi
:39:58. > :40:01.Long - one year on from the union Thank you both for joining us. Naomi
:40:02. > :40:04.flag being restricted in its flying from the City Hall and still large
:40:05. > :40:13.number of protestors are on the streets of the city centre. What's
:40:14. > :40:17.your reaction to that? I think it's very disappointing that people,
:40:18. > :40:21.after a year, are still convinced that these protests are going to
:40:22. > :40:25.change anything. The decision taken by City Hall was taken for the right
:40:26. > :40:29.reasons. It is a good decision and a democratic decision. No amount of
:40:30. > :40:34.protest on the street will change that. So we need to be honest with
:40:35. > :40:38.people engaged in those protests, but it's also unclear what they were
:40:39. > :40:44.protesting about. Partly they were saying smashed the Alliance party,
:40:45. > :40:48.partly they were protesting about political policing. So it's not
:40:49. > :40:49.clear where their anger is directed. From my perspective, I
:40:50. > :40:55.don't think it's political policing. directed. From my perspective, I
:40:56. > :40:58.If you choose to express your politics through violence breaking
:40:59. > :41:03.the law and are rested, that is not vertical policing. We need people to
:41:04. > :41:07.restore order to the situation and to find ways of expressing concerns
:41:08. > :41:14.that they have in a democratic and peaceful and lawful manner. Many of
:41:15. > :41:18.them are constituents of yours in East Belfast and for whatever
:41:19. > :41:22.reason, maybe a collection of reasons, they feel marginalised and
:41:23. > :41:26.disenfranchised. That's a problem that isn't going to go away. But
:41:27. > :41:29.everyone has the right of abode, whether they choose to exercise it
:41:30. > :41:36.or not is a matter of choice for them. -- the right to vote. I would
:41:37. > :41:40.put the blame on the door of Unionist politicians who have
:41:41. > :41:44.continually fed unionists and loyalists a diet of negativity, of
:41:45. > :41:47.loss. They have made the narrative of the agreement wonder they are
:41:48. > :41:52.constantly losing, it's not the truth, but it's a diet they are fed
:41:53. > :41:57.and they believe it's an argument that will get them more votes. They
:41:58. > :42:02.want people to motivated by fear, and that is why we have a believe
:42:03. > :42:04.good community who feel they haven't gained by the agreement because no
:42:05. > :42:13.one gives them the objective argument. What you think the protest
:42:14. > :42:18.achieved, if anything? Where we were last week, people were predicting
:42:19. > :42:22.all sorts of violence and mayhem, quite rightly saying this is one of
:42:23. > :42:27.the rest shopping days before Christmas, we should try and do our
:42:28. > :42:32.best to minimise prospects of trouble and maximise the return to
:42:33. > :42:40.the economy. Of the more dire predictions materialise. Apart from
:42:41. > :42:44.a few minor incidents, which are regrettable, for the most part it
:42:45. > :42:51.appears to have passed off very peacefully. Hopefully, we can build
:42:52. > :42:54.on that. I am just a bit concerned that if lessons can be learned
:42:55. > :42:59.throughout the political process over the course of the last year, it
:43:00. > :43:05.would appear that the Alliance party aren't learning very many. There was
:43:06. > :43:13.a serious mistake, a democratic one, but a serious one made 12 months
:43:14. > :43:17.ago. Let's not repeat the mistakes of trying to say to a community, we
:43:18. > :43:20.don't care what you think or what you feel, or how strongly you
:43:21. > :43:26.express your views, we're not going to change our mind. What progress
:43:27. > :43:30.are you referring to when you say the progress of the last 12 months?
:43:31. > :43:34.are you referring to when you say We are exactly where we were, with
:43:35. > :43:36.another protest bringing the centre of Belfast to a standstill on the
:43:37. > :43:41.busiest shopping day before Christmas. George January and
:43:42. > :43:46.February last year, there were weekly and in some cases nightly
:43:47. > :43:50.protests. In some instances they were violent and in other instances
:43:51. > :43:54.they were peaceful. All of those days are hopefully behind us now but
:43:55. > :43:59.people I think saw the benefit of getting registered to ensure that
:44:00. > :44:04.their political voice was heard at the ballot ox, they need to keep on
:44:05. > :44:06.doing that because elections are coming up and they need to express
:44:07. > :44:11.their views peacefully and democratic way. If they do that,
:44:12. > :44:15.hopefully all the political parties will learn lessons are not repeat
:44:16. > :44:20.the mistakes of 12 months ago when there was a decision by a small
:44:21. > :44:26.number of parties who didn't realise the implications of what they were
:44:27. > :44:32.doing. They do now. So you need to learn a lesson? I think it's a
:44:33. > :44:35.bizarre situation when you have a democratic Unionist saying we have
:44:36. > :44:40.to learn lessons from having been intimidated and threatened for a
:44:41. > :44:44.year. I have never said I don't care about depression people have for the
:44:45. > :44:50.flag, or sensitive to their concerns, I engage with people on a
:44:51. > :44:53.daily basis about that. But I will not be bullied or intimidated by
:44:54. > :44:56.anyone into changing what is a good decision because we're not just
:44:57. > :45:02.dealing with Unionists who feel disenfranchised, we are trying to
:45:03. > :45:07.balance the needs of the whole community. I also think it shows how
:45:08. > :45:10.accustomed and can dish and we are that when you have a police officer
:45:11. > :45:13.knocked unconscious and another injured, will talk about that as a
:45:14. > :45:16.good day for Belfast. injured, will talk about that as a
:45:17. > :45:23.it is, I agree it was better than it might have been. You have welcomed
:45:24. > :45:28.the fact that it was peaceful, broadly, and you made the point,
:45:29. > :45:34.with the exception that two officers were injured, nonetheless it was not
:45:35. > :45:40.unlawful parade. It was not because people who were taking part were not
:45:41. > :45:44.clear of city centre by half past 12 and that was in the determination,
:45:45. > :45:50.so they defied your party leader who said peaceful and lawful? It would
:45:51. > :45:55.have been preferable had the parade not taken place on the Saturday, we
:45:56. > :45:58.made that clear, but given the fact it was going to go ahead, we had to
:45:59. > :46:02.work with what we have. There is no point in trying to say that we wish
:46:03. > :46:04.it wasn't going to happen, bury our heads in the sand and hope
:46:05. > :46:09.everything will turn out right. A heads in the sand and hope
:46:10. > :46:13.lot of work was put in behind the scenes to try and ensure a peaceful,
:46:14. > :46:22.lawful outcome. It was a lot better than it could have been. But is that
:46:23. > :46:28.good enough? I wish we did live in a perfect world, but we don't. Let's
:46:29. > :46:33.work with what we have, let's build. We talked about a year ago. A year
:46:34. > :46:36.ago and implement were significant. It's on the decline now. Hopefully
:46:37. > :46:42.we are starting to create a better economic future. We have to build on
:46:43. > :46:45.that and hopefully progress the sense of alienation that is in there
:46:46. > :46:54.in the working class Unionist community. Our final brief
:46:55. > :46:57.sentence? I think it's important in a society when we have lost her grip
:46:58. > :47:01.on the rule of law a society when we have lost her grip
:47:02. > :47:06.Democrats, uphold the rule of law. Peaceful and lawful are not the same
:47:07. > :47:12.thing. We need to have clear statement around that from political
:47:13. > :47:23.representatives who are there to uphold the rule of law. Joining me
:47:24. > :47:26.now to reflect on that are the commentator Seamus Close and the
:47:27. > :47:32.business consultant Joanne Stuart. Not as bad as it could have been.
:47:33. > :47:37.Once again, the shopkeepers, the traders, the people of Belfast,
:47:38. > :47:41.people further afield, have been held hostage. Let's be blunt, held
:47:42. > :47:49.hostage by a couple of thousand people who were breaking the law in
:47:50. > :47:50.an illegal protest, organised and led by a faceless individual whose
:47:51. > :47:55.an illegal protest, organised and name we don't know until lives
:47:56. > :48:03.outside Belfast. What sort of a society... I listen to both the
:48:04. > :48:06.politicians saying they are opposed and would have preferred it not to
:48:07. > :48:10.happen. I think that would be the judgement of the vast majority, if
:48:11. > :48:14.not all of the politicians in Northern Ireland, would have
:48:15. > :48:19.preferred that the parade didn't take place. Yet in spite of that, it
:48:20. > :48:26.took place. So democracy is set aside by a crowd... Why are we
:48:27. > :48:29.cuddling up to them? Why did they get permission in the first place?
:48:30. > :48:35.Why did the traders have to lose business yet again, and Belfast
:48:36. > :48:38.dragged through the gutter by people who obviously don't care about
:48:39. > :48:40.Belfast? They obviously have their selfish and confused motives.
:48:41. > :48:52.Because the flag will not be because 2000 people gather in front
:48:53. > :48:57.of City Hall. You are close to the business community. You have had a
:48:58. > :49:04.senior position presenting that. How serious is the issue for business
:49:05. > :49:08.confidence in. Fast? It is very serious. Nobody in business wanted
:49:09. > :49:14.to see that parade on Saturday. It is the busiest trading day. What
:49:15. > :49:17.seems to not be considered are the rights of business owners to trade
:49:18. > :49:22.uninterrupted, and threatened and unharmed. Grigori mentioned focusing
:49:23. > :49:28.on the economy, and it's the economy that will create jobs, create a more
:49:29. > :49:33.positive economic future. It's important that there is a concerted
:49:34. > :49:35.focus and effort on economic issues because they are the keys to
:49:36. > :49:39.tackling and addressing our social issues. Do
:49:40. > :49:44.tackling and addressing our social could have been worse? It obviously
:49:45. > :49:48.could have, there is relief there was no violence within the city
:49:49. > :49:52.centre, I appreciate there was some violence you wouldn't want to see
:49:53. > :50:01.but it shouldn't have taken place. Thanks very much now. The TUV
:50:02. > :50:03.leader, Jim Allister, has been talking elections. He told his
:50:04. > :50:06.annual conference in Cookstown that the DUP is bluffing about the
:50:07. > :50:10.possibility of running two candidates in next year's European
:50:11. > :50:12.poll. But he was more coy about what his own party will do. Here's our
:50:13. > :50:17.Political Correspondent, Gareth Gordon. There is more than one view
:50:18. > :50:21.of Jim Allister. According to his party chairman, some people in
:50:22. > :50:29.dormant think he is a pain in the neck. Then there is the view of his
:50:30. > :50:35.followers. Jim Allister I believe is the man for Ulster. Great leader, a
:50:36. > :50:43.truthful man. He is doing a fantastic job. His only main rival
:50:44. > :50:50.is and Travers, who inspired him to introduce the bill. Also there was a
:50:51. > :50:55.soldier injured in the bombing carried out by the special adviser
:50:56. > :51:00.in question, Paul Kavanagh. It's not right somebody should shoot, kill
:51:01. > :51:05.and murder a police officer and get two years in prison, that's not
:51:06. > :51:11.right. He was referring to the case of the husband of this woman. She
:51:12. > :51:15.declined to be interviewed. In his conference speech, Jim Allister's
:51:16. > :51:22.favourite target was his former party. The DUP conference on the
:51:23. > :51:30.Friday night, at their dinner, they had an illusionist, long. -- come
:51:31. > :51:37.along. The first thing that surprised me was they had to bring
:51:38. > :51:45.someone in to perform. Then he looked ahead to future elections. I
:51:46. > :51:53.see that the DUP has been suggesting they might even run two candidates.
:51:54. > :51:57.They won't, ladies and gentlemen. Last time they fought the European
:51:58. > :52:03.elections, their candidate held on by her fingernails to creep in for
:52:04. > :52:08.the third seat, there is no way they will be fighting with two
:52:09. > :52:13.candidates. There was however one omission from the speech, what the
:52:14. > :52:14.TUV was going to do in that election. Jim Allister has been
:52:15. > :52:18.quick to tell us what the DUP election. Jim Allister has been
:52:19. > :52:25.not do. Not so quick to tell us what his own party will. You can tempt me
:52:26. > :52:31.as much as you like but I will not be telling you today what the TUV
:52:32. > :52:35.will be doing. He may concentrate on the council elections instead. We
:52:36. > :52:43.are not going to know until next year. Obviously, Jim Allister
:52:44. > :52:50.getting the party faithful to lap it up. Can they expand beyond their
:52:51. > :52:57.core race? I think their core base is narrow and will remain so. He is
:52:58. > :53:01.very productive in the Assembly, he is the epitome of what opposition
:53:02. > :53:04.should be. Look at the number of questions, he has dozens down at any
:53:05. > :53:09.point in time. And they are about questions, he has dozens down at any
:53:10. > :53:13.salient issues that affect every man, woman and child in Northern
:53:14. > :53:18.Ireland. He is doing a wonderful job as an MLA, but the negativity of his
:53:19. > :53:28.party comes across through him, that is his big problem. Will he run a
:53:29. > :53:30.candidate for Europe? Politics is about running candidates, if he
:53:31. > :53:35.doesn't, he will demonstrate more negativity. Will he polled better
:53:36. > :53:41.than the 66,000 last time? Good question. Let's pause, then, and
:53:42. > :53:50.have a look at the week gone past in 60 seconds - with Stephen Walker.
:53:51. > :53:52.After a car bomb partially exploded in Belfast city centre, Americans
:53:53. > :53:58.were warned to take care, but some thought that advice was overplayed.
:53:59. > :54:03.It has been blown out of all proportion in Northern Ireland.
:54:04. > :54:07.It has been blown out of all Claims about Gerry Adams and the IRA
:54:08. > :54:14.continued. MLAs were told past should not dictate future. I think
:54:15. > :54:18.the people who make the argument that you can't further contribute to
:54:19. > :54:23.society because you were a member of the IRA in the past are making a
:54:24. > :54:26.huge mistake. Health minister ordered a review into the treatment
:54:27. > :54:31.of patients at a County Antrim nursing home. An independent report
:54:32. > :54:39.said the SDLP were complacent and stuck in the past. But the party
:54:40. > :54:41.said they had much to offer. If there are perceptions out there that
:54:42. > :54:48.I think are wrong, we have to challenge them.
:54:49. > :54:54.The Scottish Government has published its blueprint for
:54:55. > :54:57.independence. The 670-page document promises a 'revolution' in social
:54:58. > :54:59.policy, with childcare at its heart. Politicians at Stormont have been
:55:00. > :55:03.watching events in Edinburgh carefully. The Deputy First
:55:04. > :55:07.Minister, Martin McGuinness, has said local parties should stay out
:55:08. > :55:13.of the debate. The First Minister, Peter Robinson, took a different
:55:14. > :55:16.approach. He's talked in the past about the emotional bonds that link
:55:17. > :55:19.Scotland and Northern Ireland and is firmly opposed to the proposal.
:55:20. > :55:22.Joining me is Professor Graham Walker from Queen's University.
:55:23. > :55:29.Graham, what did you make of this White Paper? I think the Scottish
:55:30. > :55:32.Government set out the case for independence quite soberly. I think
:55:33. > :55:35.Alex Salmond has been trying to reassure people for some time that
:55:36. > :55:42.the transition to independence can be a smooth one. However he's not in
:55:43. > :55:45.a position to reassure yet about key issues such as the European Union
:55:46. > :55:53.membership, the currency, and so on. This is where the no camp are. They
:55:54. > :55:56.are trying to put forward the argument that this is a leap into
:55:57. > :56:03.the unknown that carries too many risks. Alex Salmond's line is it as
:56:04. > :56:09.an exciting opportunity. Is it affordable? If you put better social
:56:10. > :56:13.policy at the heart of an independent Scotland, that's fine,
:56:14. > :56:17.but can it pay for it? A lot might come down to the oil revenues, and a
:56:18. > :56:22.great deal of negotiation is going to have to come into that. I think
:56:23. > :56:26.it's a fair point about whether it's affordable or not but what is
:56:27. > :56:30.significant is that he should put that at the centre of things. Was
:56:31. > :56:36.the message he is trying to put over is that the welfare, a compelling
:56:37. > :56:39.reason to continue to support the union, he would say that is
:56:40. > :56:43.weakening and he can actually union, he would say that is
:56:44. > :56:48.better social welfare provision in an independent Scotland. The first
:56:49. > :56:52.minister has been very clear that this is up to the people of
:56:53. > :56:57.Scotland, not for us to interfere, but he also feels passionately that
:56:58. > :57:01.an independent Scotland would not be good for the UK. So what kind of
:57:02. > :57:07.impact do you think the debate is likely to have on this side of the
:57:08. > :57:12.Irish Sea? A profound impact, particularly as we get close to the
:57:13. > :57:17.date of the referendum. It does suggest that if there is a yes vote,
:57:18. > :57:21.then of course the Russian ship of these islands is going to change
:57:22. > :57:27.profoundly -- the relationship. If they are saying that the union is
:57:28. > :57:35.saved, it cuts the ground from that if a major partner is going to
:57:36. > :57:42.depart. So there are all sorts of anxieties and risks. I think
:57:43. > :57:45.Unionists tend to read across rather simplistically of the situation from
:57:46. > :57:51.here and Scotland. The two situations are very different.
:57:52. > :57:55.Divisions in Scotland will not map onto religious divisions. And also,
:57:56. > :58:01.Scottish Unionism has a nationalist element, nationalism is an important
:58:02. > :58:06.part of Scottish Unionism and Scottish nationalism has never been
:58:07. > :58:11.about grievances and troubled history, certainly not nearly as
:58:12. > :58:16.much. This seems to be a sense that it is unlikely they would be a yes
:58:17. > :58:20.vote, but still Alex Salmond appears to be building a momentum. A year is
:58:21. > :58:27.a long time in politics, is it possible that events could move it
:58:28. > :58:31.in the direction of Alex Salmond and ultimately, there could be a yes
:58:32. > :58:40.vote? Is that realistic? I think it is. I would say that at the moment.
:58:41. > :58:43.I think the yes campaign have a new momentum, and things like the
:58:44. > :58:50.bedroom tax have undoubtedly affected the game recently. He has
:58:51. > :58:53.been able to put that into his White paper, saying he's going to abolish
:58:54. > :59:00.that, that phase will rule out Scotland. Do you think there will be
:59:01. > :59:07.an interest in Northern Ireland about that? I think some people will
:59:08. > :59:13.want to get directly involved. I think those in the prounion camp
:59:14. > :59:16.have an incentive to try and cooperate with others in that camp
:59:17. > :59:20.to come up with a constructive vision of the union, as they are
:59:21. > :59:29.going to have to do that soon, they can't just rely on saying it is all
:59:30. > :59:32.too risky. Thanks very much. Just time for a final word from our
:59:33. > :59:40.guests of the day. What do you make of that debate? Are you interested?
:59:41. > :59:44.Absolutely, a lot of trade goes on with Scotland, from the perspective
:59:45. > :59:50.of the decision to change corporation tax, work is continuing
:59:51. > :59:55.on that, if there is a no vote, how we take that forward and if there is
:59:56. > :00:00.a yes vote, there is an implication for the rest of the UK. I haven't
:00:01. > :00:04.got through all the pages yet but at least we have something that sets
:00:05. > :00:07.out what an independent Scotland could look like and the
:00:08. > :00:14.implications. What do you make of the debate? Very interesting. I
:00:15. > :00:19.figured should be a spectator sport. It is interesting for Scotland, but
:00:20. > :00:22.I think it is ironic that the Unionists are the ones who want to
:00:23. > :00:26.get involved but they are the most this difference whenever another
:00:27. > :00:30.country tries all attempts to speak about what happens in Northern
:00:31. > :00:40.Ireland. So I think they should take a leaf out of their own book and
:00:41. > :00:42.keep quiet and spectate. The Haass talks move into the final
:00:43. > :00:47.negotiation stage this month. December is make or break time. We
:00:48. > :00:53.need to get a consistent message from our population -- politicians,
:00:54. > :00:59.we need to get the confidence and stability, we are waiting eagerly to
:01:00. > :01:04.see what comes out. I get optimistic that Haass will leave him with a
:01:05. > :01:12.deal done? I don't think so, I think one of the key issues will be in the
:01:13. > :01:18.long-term future. The politicians have an awful lot of work to do,
:01:19. > :01:22.there is a lot riding on this. Futures are riding on this. We have
:01:23. > :01:27.to sort out the mess and get on with it. Thank you both very much.
:01:28. > :01:42.touching on eugenics and things like that. That is all we have time for.
:01:43. > :01:48.Thank you. What rabbit has George Osborne got up his sleeve? And
:01:49. > :01:55.what's David Cameron up to in China? All questions for The Week Ahead. To
:01:56. > :02:03.help the panel led, we are joined by Kwasi Kwarteng, Tory MP. Welcome to
:02:04. > :02:07.the Sunday Politics. Why has the government been unable to move the
:02:08. > :02:11.agenda and to the broad economic recovery, and allowed the agenda to
:02:12. > :02:16.stay on Labour's ground of energy prices and living standards? Energy
:02:17. > :02:21.has been a big issue over the last few months but the autumn state and
:02:22. > :02:24.will be a wonderful opportunity to readdress where we are fighting the
:02:25. > :02:30.ground, the good economic news that we delivered. If you look at where
:02:31. > :02:34.Labour were earlier this year, people were saying they would they 5
:02:35. > :02:44.million people unemployed. They were saying that there should be a plan
:02:45. > :02:48.B. He is not in the Labour Party? Elements of the left were suggesting
:02:49. > :02:52.it. Peter Hain told me it would be up to 3 million people.
:02:53. > :02:56.it. Peter Hain told me it would be Blanchflower said it would be 5
:02:57. > :03:01.million people. So we have got to get the economy back to the centre
:03:02. > :03:06.of the debate? Yes, the game we were playing was about the economy. That
:03:07. > :03:11.was the central fighting ground of the political debate. We were
:03:12. > :03:16.winning that battle. Labour have cleverly shifted it onto the cost of
:03:17. > :03:20.living. It is essential that the government, that George, talks about
:03:21. > :03:30.the economy. That has been its great success. I do not think this has
:03:31. > :03:37.been a week of admitting that Labour was right, plain cigarettes
:03:38. > :03:41.packaging, other issues. If you look at the big picture, where we are
:03:42. > :03:46.with the economy, we have the fastest growing economy in the G-7.
:03:47. > :03:52.Despite Labour's predictions, none of this has happened, none of the
:03:53. > :03:56.triple dip has happened. The British economy is on a good fitting. That
:03:57. > :04:01.is a good story for the government to bat on. You say that people have
:04:02. > :04:04.stopped talking about the economic recovery, but it is worse than that,
:04:05. > :04:10.people have stopped talking about the deficit? As long as people were
:04:11. > :04:17.talking about the deficit, the Tories were trusted. But people have
:04:18. > :04:21.forgotten about it. This country still spends ?100 billion more than
:04:22. > :04:27.it raises. Yes, I am of the view that the deficit, the national
:04:28. > :04:32.debt, is the biggest question facing this generation of politicians. You
:04:33. > :04:38.are right to suggest that the Conservative Party was strong on
:04:39. > :04:44.this. That head, not deficit, is not going to come down in the
:04:45. > :04:47.foreseeable future? It is rising. This is a test that George Osborne
:04:48. > :04:53.is not going to pass. We know what is coming in the Autumn Statement,
:04:54. > :04:58.it is lots of giveaways, paying for free school meals, paying for fuel
:04:59. > :05:02.duty subsidies. We are still talking about the cost of living, not
:05:03. > :05:07.changing it actively wider economy. There might be extra money for
:05:08. > :05:14.growth but it is not clear what will happen to that. If it is time for
:05:15. > :05:20.giveaways, let's speak about Labour. I have never been a fan of
:05:21. > :05:24.giveaways. Fiscal prudence is what our watchword should be. Look at the
:05:25. > :05:28.headlines. Each time, the our watchword should be. Look at the
:05:29. > :05:34.figures, the debt figures, were always worse than predicted. This
:05:35. > :05:40.year it will be significantly better. I think that is significant.
:05:41. > :05:45.Any kind of recovery is probably better than no recovery at all. When
:05:46. > :05:51.you look at this recovery, it is basically a consumer spending boom.
:05:52. > :05:58.Consumer spending is up, business investment is way down compared with
:05:59. > :06:04.2008, and exports, despite a 20% devaluation, our flat. Let's get one
:06:05. > :06:10.thing straight, it is a recovery. Any recovery is better than no
:06:11. > :06:15.recovery. Now we can have a debate about, technical debate about the
:06:16. > :06:21.elements of the recovery. It is not technical, it is a fact. There is
:06:22. > :06:27.evidence that there is optimism in terms of what are thinking...
:06:28. > :06:33.Optimism? If I am optimistic about the economy, I am more likely to
:06:34. > :06:39.spend money and invest in business. So far you have not managed that?
:06:40. > :06:43.Exports have not done well either? Exports are not a big section of the
:06:44. > :06:49.British economy. But of course, they are important. But given where we
:06:50. > :06:54.were at the end of last year, no economist was saying that we would
:06:55. > :07:01.be in this robust position today. That is true, in terms of the
:07:02. > :07:05.overall recovery. Now the PM loves to "bang the drum abroad for British
:07:06. > :07:08.business" and he's off to China this evening with a plane-load of British
:07:09. > :07:39.business leaders. And it's not the first time. Take a look at this.
:07:40. > :08:03.Well, you might not think exports unimportant, but clearly the Prime
:08:04. > :08:08.Minister and the Chancellor do. They unimportant, but clearly the Prime
:08:09. > :08:13.are important, but they are not what is driving the growth at the moment.
:08:14. > :08:16.We used to talk about the need for export led recovery is, that is why
:08:17. > :08:23.the Prime Minister is going to China. Absolutely, and he's doing
:08:24. > :08:27.the right thing. Do we have any evidence that these tend of trips
:08:28. > :08:32.produce business? The main example so far is the right to trade the
:08:33. > :08:37.Chinese currency offshore. London has a kind of global primacy. London
:08:38. > :08:43.will be the offshore centre. Is that a good thing? I have no problem at
:08:44. > :08:46.all with this sort of policy. I do not think that Britain has been
:08:47. > :08:51.doing this enough compared with France and Germany in recent years.
:08:52. > :08:58.I am optimistic in the long term about this dish -- about British
:08:59. > :09:05.exports to China. China need machine tools and manufacturing products. In
:09:06. > :09:09.20 years time, China will be buying professional groups, educational
:09:10. > :09:13.services, the things we excel at. All we need to do is consolidate our
:09:14. > :09:19.strengths, stand still and we will move forward. The worst thing we can
:09:20. > :09:23.do is reengineer the economy towards those services and away from
:09:24. > :09:29.something else. We have a lot of ground to make up, Helen? At one
:09:30. > :09:34.stage, it is no longer true, but at one stage you could say that we
:09:35. > :09:39.exported more to Ireland, a country of 4 million people, than we did to
:09:40. > :09:49.Russia, China, India, Brazil, all combined. I believe we form 1% of
:09:50. > :09:54.Chinese imports now. The problem is what you have to give up in exchange
:09:55. > :09:58.for that. It is a big problem for David Cameron's credibility that he
:09:59. > :10:05.has had to row back on his meeting with the Dalai llama. This trip, we
:10:06. > :10:10.have been in the deep freeze with China for a couple of years. This
:10:11. > :10:14.trip has come at a high cost. We have had to open up the City of
:10:15. > :10:18.London to Chinese banks without much scrutiny, we have had to move the
:10:19. > :10:23.date of the Autumn Statement, and there is no mention of human rights.
:10:24. > :10:27.It is awkward to deal with that, all in the name of getting up to where
:10:28. > :10:35.we were a few years ago. A month after strong anchor -- one month
:10:36. > :10:41.after Sri Lanka, where he apologised three human rights abuses, this is
:10:42. > :10:45.difficult to take. Do we have any idea what the Prime Minister hopes
:10:46. > :10:49.to do in China this time? I am not sure there is anything specific, but
:10:50. > :10:54.when you go to these countries, certainly in the Middle East China,
:10:55. > :11:00.they complain, why has the Prime Minister not come to see us? That is
:11:01. > :11:05.very important. High-level delegations from other countries go
:11:06. > :11:16.to these places because the addict -- because they are important export
:11:17. > :11:21.markets. You might look at the Prime Minister playing cricket over there,
:11:22. > :11:25.and wonder, what is that for? I do not mind the Prime Minister Rajoy
:11:26. > :11:31.cricket. This is a high visibility mission, chose that politicians in
:11:32. > :11:35.Britain care. You are part of the free enterprise group. It had all
:11:36. > :11:41.sorts of things on it like tax cuts for those on middle incomes or above
:11:42. > :11:49.the 40% bracket, tax cuts worth 16 billion. You will get none of that
:11:50. > :11:53.on Thursday, we are agreed? No. But he does have two budgets between now
:11:54. > :12:00.and the election and if the fiscal position is using a little bit, he
:12:01. > :12:03.may have more leeway than it looked like a couple of months ago. Yes,
:12:04. > :12:11.from a free enter prise point of view, we have looked at the tax cuts
:12:12. > :12:16.that should be looked at. The 40p rate comes in at quite a low level
:12:17. > :12:21.for people who, in the south-east, do not feel particularly wealthy.
:12:22. > :12:27.They are spending a lot of money on commuting, energy bills. The
:12:28. > :12:30.Chancellor has been very open about championing this. He says
:12:31. > :12:35.Chancellor has been very open about 40p rate will kick in at a slightly
:12:36. > :12:39.higher rate. Labour had a bad summer and the opinion polls seem to be
:12:40. > :12:45.narrowing. Then they had a good hearty conference season. The best.
:12:46. > :12:50.Has the Labour lead solidified or increased the little, maybe up to
:12:51. > :12:53.eight points? If it is a good Autumn Statement, or the Tories start to
:12:54. > :13:00.narrow that lead by the end of the year? If they go into 2014 trailing
:13:01. > :13:04.by single digits, they cannot complain too much. That gives them
:13:05. > :13:10.18 months to chip away at Labour's lead. But do they do that chipping
:13:11. > :13:14.away by eight bidding Labour or do they let time take its course and
:13:15. > :13:19.let the economic recovery continue, maybe business investment joins
:13:20. > :13:21.consumer spending as a source of that recovery, and a year from now,
:13:22. > :13:31.consumer spending as a source of to rise? That is a better hope than
:13:32. > :13:33.engaging in a bidding war. Be assured, they will be highly
:13:34. > :13:35.political budgets. That's all for today. The Daily Politics is on BBC
:13:36. > :13:37.Two at midday all this today. The Daily Politics is on BBC
:13:38. > :13:40.Two at midday all this week, except on Thursday when we'll start at
:13:41. > :13:43.10:45 to bring you live coverage and analysis of the Chancellor's Autumn
:13:44. > :13:47.Statement in a Daily Politics special for BBC Two and the BBC News
:13:48. > :13:50.Channel. Remember if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.