:00:38. > :00:41.It's Sunday Morning and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:42. > :00:44.The Government has insisted that Gibraltar will not be bargained
:00:45. > :00:49.But the territory's chief minister says the EU's proposal
:00:50. > :00:54.After a momentous week, Britain's journey out
:00:55. > :00:58.Can the Prime Minister satisfy her critics at home
:00:59. > :01:04.We speak to the former Conservative leader, Michael Howard.
:01:05. > :01:06.And we have the lowdown on next month's local elections -
:01:07. > :01:11.Coming up here... who's going up and who's going down?
:01:12. > :01:13.The talks process at Stormont is to be ramped up this
:01:14. > :01:15.week with the promise of round-table discussions.
:01:16. > :01:18.So what will the three former Executive parties want out of it?
:01:19. > :01:22.Join me in half an hour. changing their minds. MPs from
:01:23. > :01:30.opposing sides give the view from there constituencies.
:01:31. > :01:32.And with me, as always, the best and the brightest political
:01:33. > :01:34.panel in the business - Steve Richards, Isabel Oakeshott
:01:35. > :01:40.and Tom Newton Dunn who'll be tweeting throughout the programme.
:01:41. > :01:43.For the people of Gibraltar, Clause 22 of the EU's draft negotiating
:01:44. > :01:45.guidelines came as something of a shock.
:01:46. > :01:50.The guidelines propose that the Government in Spain be
:01:51. > :01:53.given a veto over any future trade deal as it applies to
:01:54. > :01:59.The UK Government has reacted strongly, saying Gibraltar
:02:00. > :02:01.will not be bargained away in the Brexit talks.
:02:02. > :02:07.Here's the Defence Secretary, Michael Fallon, speaking
:02:08. > :02:13.We are going to look after Gibraltar.
:02:14. > :02:17.Gibraltar's going to be protected all the way, all the way,
:02:18. > :02:19.because the sovereignty of Gibraltar cannot be changed without
:02:20. > :02:22.the agreement of the people of Gibraltar and they have made it
:02:23. > :02:25.very clear they do not want to live under Spanish rule
:02:26. > :02:28.and it is interesting, I think, in the draft guidelines from the EU
:02:29. > :02:31.that Spain is not saying that the whole thing is subject
:02:32. > :02:43.Michael Fallon earlier. Steve, is this a Spanish power grab or much
:02:44. > :02:46.ado about nothing? It could be both. Clearly what is happening about this
:02:47. > :02:51.negotiation and will happen again and again is that at different
:02:52. > :02:58.points individual countries can start playing bargaining cards. They
:02:59. > :03:03.will say, if you want a deal, you have to deliver this, UK. Spain is
:03:04. > :03:10.doing it early. It might turn out to be nothing at all. It is an early
:03:11. > :03:17.example of how to delete recruit after Article 50 is triggered, the
:03:18. > :03:22.dynamic -- how after Article 50 is triggered, the dynamic changes. At
:03:23. > :03:27.certain points, any country can veto it. It gives them much more power
:03:28. > :03:31.than we have clocked so far. Donald Tusk, the head of the European
:03:32. > :03:36.Council, he went out of his way to say Britain mustn't deal by
:03:37. > :03:41.laterally, with individual countries, it has to deal with the
:03:42. > :03:48.EU as a block. Was it mischiefmaking to add this bit in about Spain?
:03:49. > :03:55.Those two things do not tally. I think on our part, when I say we, I
:03:56. > :04:00.mean the Foreign Office and Number 10, we dropped the ball. By
:04:01. > :04:04.excluding Gibraltar from the letter of Article 50, they gave an
:04:05. > :04:10.opportunity to the Spanish to steal the narrative. Why this is
:04:11. > :04:14.important, presentation, things looked like they were going quite
:04:15. > :04:19.well for Theresa May when she handed over the letter, for a few hours,
:04:20. > :04:25.and suddenly, you have this incredible symbolism of Gibraltar.
:04:26. > :04:29.For Brexiteers, the idea that there could be some kind of diminishment
:04:30. > :04:34.or failure in relation to Gibraltar, it would be a very symbolic
:04:35. > :04:38.illustration of things not going entirely to plan. Forget the detail,
:04:39. > :04:44.it does not look great. Gibraltar got mentions in the white paper.
:04:45. > :04:49.They did not get a mention in the Article 50 notification. Do you
:04:50. > :04:53.think the British Government did not see this coming? To be honest, I do
:04:54. > :04:58.not think it would make a bit of difference. Theresa May could have
:04:59. > :05:00.an entire chapter in her letter to Donald Tusk and the Spanish and the
:05:01. > :05:08.EU would have still tried this on. For me, it was as much a point of
:05:09. > :05:12.symbolism than it was for any power grab. It was a good point to make.
:05:13. > :05:17.You need to know, Britain, you are not in our club, we will not have
:05:18. > :05:21.your interests at heart. Officials after the press conference, they
:05:22. > :05:30.went on to talk about it saying it is a territorial dispute. It is not!
:05:31. > :05:34.Gibraltar is British. It is very much a shot across the bow is.
:05:35. > :05:39.Whether it comes to pass, it is still yet to be seen. I feel we will
:05:40. > :05:46.be chasing hares like this for the next few years. There will be many
:05:47. > :05:51.other examples. They are greatly empowered by the whole process.
:05:52. > :05:55.Britain has not really got... It has got to wait and hear what their
:05:56. > :06:00.interpretation of Brexit is. They will negotiate, we will negotiate
:06:01. > :06:05.accordingly. I have some sympathy about the letter, the Article 50
:06:06. > :06:10.letter. They agonised over it, so much to get right in terms of
:06:11. > :06:15.balance and tone. It would have been absurd to start mentioning Skegness
:06:16. > :06:23.and everything else. Why not! Skegness, what did they do? It is a
:06:24. > :06:29.real example of how the dynamic now changes. The Spanish royals are
:06:30. > :06:36.going to come here in a couple of months, that could be interesting.
:06:37. > :06:45.It will be good feelings breaking up, I am sure. -- breaking out.
:06:46. > :06:47.So, after a historic week, the UK is now very much
:06:48. > :06:51.But will it be a smooth journey to the exit door?
:06:52. > :06:53.Or can we expect a bit of turbulence?
:06:54. > :06:56.Are you taking back control, Prime Minister?
:06:57. > :06:58.Big days in politics usually involve people shouting
:06:59. > :07:00.and the Prime Minister getting in a car.
:07:01. > :07:03.It is only a few hundred metres from Downing Street to Parliament.
:07:04. > :07:05.But the short journey is the start of a much longer one
:07:06. > :07:10.and we do not know exactly where we will all end up.
:07:11. > :07:13.This is a historic moment from which there can
:07:14. > :07:22.Moments earlier, this Dear John, sorry, Dear Don letter,
:07:23. > :07:25.was delivered by Britain's ambassador in Brussels to the EU
:07:26. > :07:28.He seemed genuinely upset to have been jilted.
:07:29. > :07:33.Back in Westminster, hacks from around the world
:07:34. > :07:36.were trying to work out what it all meant for the
:07:37. > :07:42.So, here it is, a copy of the six-page letter
:07:43. > :07:49.The letter reaffirms the PM's proposal to have talks on the exit
:07:50. > :07:52.deal and a future trade deal at the same time.
:07:53. > :07:54.It also mentioned the word "security" 11 times and stated
:07:55. > :07:56.a failure to reach agreement would mean cooperation
:07:57. > :08:00.in the fight against crime and terrorism would be weakened.
:08:01. > :08:04.Later, our very own Andrew got to ask her what would happen
:08:05. > :08:10.if Britain left the European policing agency, Europol.
:08:11. > :08:14.We would not be able to access information in the same way
:08:15. > :08:17.as we would as a member, so it is important, I think,
:08:18. > :08:19.we are able to negotiate a continuing relationship that
:08:20. > :08:21.enables us to work together in the way that we have.
:08:22. > :08:23.That night, the Brexiteers were happy.
:08:24. > :08:30.We did not have a Mad Hatter, but now we do.
:08:31. > :08:33.Down the street, even the Remainers, having a Mad Hatters' tea party,
:08:34. > :08:42.I am not sure that is actually Boris, though.
:08:43. > :08:57.The next morning, the papers suggested Theresa May would use
:08:58. > :08:57.security as a bargaining tool and threaten to withdraw the UK's
:08:58. > :08:58.cooperation in this area if no deal was struck.
:08:59. > :08:58.Downing Street denied it, as did the Brexit Secretary.
:08:59. > :09:01.We can both cope, but we will both be worse off.
:09:02. > :09:04.That seems to be a statement of fact, it is not a threat,
:09:05. > :09:07.David Davis had other business that morning,
:09:08. > :09:09.introducing the Great Repeal Bill, outling his plans to transfer
:09:10. > :09:12.all EU law into British law to change later,
:09:13. > :09:17.It is not without its critics but the Brexit Secretary said,
:09:18. > :09:19.among other benefits, it would make trade talks easier
:09:20. > :09:26.As we exit the EU and seek a new deep and special partnership
:09:27. > :09:28.with the European Union, we are doing so from a position
:09:29. > :09:30.where we have the same standards and rules.
:09:31. > :09:36.It will also ensure we deliver on our promise to end the supremacy
:09:37. > :09:39.of European Union law in the UK as we exit.
:09:40. > :09:46.There was, though, a small issue with the name.
:09:47. > :09:49.The Government hit an early hurdle with the Great Repeal Bill.
:09:50. > :09:51.Parliamentary draughtsmen said they were not allowed
:09:52. > :09:59.Great(!) so it is just the Repeal Bill.
:10:00. > :10:01.So far, it had been a tale of two cities.
:10:02. > :10:05.By Friday, there was another, Valletta in Malta, where EU leaders
:10:06. > :10:07.were having a meeting and President Tusk, yes, him again,
:10:08. > :10:14.set out draft guidelines for the EU Brexit strategy.
:10:15. > :10:17.Once, and only once, we have achieved sufficient progress
:10:18. > :10:19.on the withdrawal can we discuss the framework for our
:10:20. > :10:23.Starting parallel talks on all issues at the same time,
:10:24. > :10:32.as suggested by some in the UK, will not happen.
:10:33. > :10:36.The EU 27 does not and will not pursue a punitive approach.
:10:37. > :10:43.Brexit in itself is already punitive enough.
:10:44. > :10:46.The pressure on Theresa May to get the Brexit process going has now
:10:47. > :10:48.gone and the stage is being set elsewhere for the showdown
:10:49. > :10:59.But face-to-face discussions are not likely to happen
:11:00. > :11:05.Before May or early June. No one is celebrating just yet.
:11:06. > :11:07.We're joined now from Kent by the former Conservative
:11:08. > :11:15.The EU says it will not talk about a future relationship with the UK
:11:16. > :11:18.until there has been sufficient progress on agreeing the divorce
:11:19. > :11:27.bill. Should the UK agree to this phased approach? Well, I think you
:11:28. > :11:33.can make too much about the sequence and timing of the negotiations. I
:11:34. > :11:37.assume that it will be a case of nothing is agreed until everything
:11:38. > :11:40.is agreed and so any agreements that might be reached on things talked
:11:41. > :11:47.about early on will be very provisional, so I think you can make
:11:48. > :11:52.a big deal about the timing and the sequence when I do not think it
:11:53. > :11:55.really matters as much as all that. Don't people have a right in this
:11:56. > :12:00.country to be surprised of the talk of a massive multi-billion pound
:12:01. > :12:07.divorce settlement? I do not remember either side making much of
:12:08. > :12:11.this in the referendum, do you? No. A select committee of the House of
:12:12. > :12:16.Lords recently reported and said that there was no legal basis for
:12:17. > :12:24.any exit fee. We will have to see how the negotiations go. I think
:12:25. > :12:26.some of the figures cited so far are wildly out of kilter and wildly
:12:27. > :12:32.unrealistic. We will have to see what happens in the negotiations. As
:12:33. > :12:37.one of your panel commented earlier, there will be lots of hares to
:12:38. > :12:41.pursue over the next couple of years and we should not get too excited
:12:42. > :12:47.about any of them. Would you accept that we make... It may not be
:12:48. > :12:51.anything like the figures Brussels is kicking around of 50, 60 billion
:12:52. > :13:00.euros, do you think we will have to make a one-off settlement? If we get
:13:01. > :13:06.everything else we want, if we get a really good trade deal and access
:13:07. > :13:10.for the City of London and so on, speaking for myself, I would be
:13:11. > :13:19.prepared to make a modest payment. But it all depends on the deal we
:13:20. > :13:23.get. What would modest be? Oh, I cannot give you a figure. We are
:13:24. > :13:27.right at the start of the negotiations. I do not think that
:13:28. > :13:33.would be agreed until near the end. The EU says that if there is a
:13:34. > :13:37.transition period of several years after the negotiations, and there is
:13:38. > :13:42.more talk of that, the UK must remain subject to the free movement
:13:43. > :13:47.of peoples and the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice, would
:13:48. > :13:51.that be acceptable to you? It depends on the nature of the
:13:52. > :13:57.transitional agreement. We are getting well ahead of ourselves
:13:58. > :14:01.here. You cannot, I think, for any judgment as to whether there should
:14:02. > :14:04.be a transitional stage until you know what the final deal is. If
:14:05. > :14:10.there is to be a final deal. And then you know how long it might take
:14:11. > :14:17.to implement that deal. That is something I think that it is really
:14:18. > :14:20.rather futile to talk about at this stage. It may become relevant,
:14:21. > :14:25.depending on the nature of the deal, and that is the proper time to talk
:14:26. > :14:30.about it and decide what the answer to the questions you pose might be.
:14:31. > :14:36.Except the EU has laid this out in its negotiation mandate and it is
:14:37. > :14:41.reasonable to ask people like yourself, should we accept that? It
:14:42. > :14:45.is reasonable for me to say, they will raise all sorts of things in
:14:46. > :14:49.their negotiating mandate and we do not need to form a view of all of
:14:50. > :14:53.them at this stage. Let me try another one. The EU says if they do
:14:54. > :14:57.agree what you have called a comprehensive free trade deal, we
:14:58. > :15:01.would have to accept EU constraints on state aid and taxes like VAT and
:15:02. > :15:10.corporation tax. Would you accept that? Again, I am not sure quite
:15:11. > :15:14.what they have in mind on that. We will be an independent country when
:15:15. > :15:22.we leave and we will make our own decisions about those matters. Not
:15:23. > :15:28.according to know that -- to the negotiating mandate. As I have said,
:15:29. > :15:31.they can put all sorts of things in the negotiating guidelines, it does
:15:32. > :15:37.not mean we have to agree with them. No doubt that is something we can
:15:38. > :15:41.discuss in the context of a free trade agreement. If we get a free
:15:42. > :15:44.trade agreement, that is very important for them as well as for
:15:45. > :15:52.us, and we can talk about some of the things you have just mentioned.
:15:53. > :16:00.Can you please leave a 20 without having repatriated full control of
:16:01. > :16:04.migration, taxis and the law? I think we will have repatriated all
:16:05. > :16:11.three of those things by the time of the next general election. How high
:16:12. > :16:17.would you rate the chances of no deal, and does that prospect worry
:16:18. > :16:21.you? I think the chances are we will get the deal, and I think the
:16:22. > :16:26.chances are we will get a good deal, because that is in the interests of
:16:27. > :16:33.both sides of this negotiation. But it is not the end of the world if we
:16:34. > :16:37.do not get a deal. Most trade in the world is carried out under World
:16:38. > :16:42.Trade Organisation rules. We would be perfectly OK if we traded with
:16:43. > :16:46.the European Union, as with everybody else, under World Trade
:16:47. > :16:51.Organisation rules. It is better to get the deal, and I think we will
:16:52. > :16:55.get the deal, because it is in the interests of both. Let me ask you
:16:56. > :16:59.about Gibraltar. You have campaigned in Gibraltar when the sovereignty
:17:00. > :17:05.issue came up under the Tony Blair government. The EU says that Spain
:17:06. > :17:09.should have a veto on whether any free-trade deal should apply to the
:17:10. > :17:14.Rock. How should the British government replied to that? As it
:17:15. > :17:21.has responded, by making it absolutely clear that we will stand
:17:22. > :17:25.by Gibraltar. 35 years ago this week, Andrew, another woman Prime
:17:26. > :17:29.Minister Centre task force is halfway across the world to protect
:17:30. > :17:34.another small group of British people against another
:17:35. > :17:38.Spanish-speaking country. I am absolutely clear that our current
:17:39. > :17:50.woman Prime Minister will show the same resolve in relation to
:17:51. > :17:52.Gibraltar as her predecessor did. This is not about Spain invading
:17:53. > :17:54.Gibraltar, it is not even about sovereignty, it is about Spain
:17:55. > :17:57.having a veto over whether any free-trade deal that the UK makes
:17:58. > :18:04.with the EU should also apply to Gibraltar. On that issue, how should
:18:05. > :18:07.the British government respond? The British government should show
:18:08. > :18:12.resolve. It is not in the interests of Spain, really, to interfere with
:18:13. > :18:17.free trade to Gibraltar. 10,000 people who live in Spain working
:18:18. > :18:22.Gibraltar. That is a very important Spanish interest, so I am very
:18:23. > :18:27.confident that in the end, we will be able to look after all the
:18:28. > :18:30.interests of Gibraltar, including free trade. Michael Howard, thank
:18:31. > :18:33.you for joining us from Kent this morning.
:18:34. > :18:35.Although sometimes it seems like everyone has forgotten,
:18:36. > :18:37.there are things happening other than Brexit.
:18:38. > :18:40.In less than five weeks' time, there will be a round of important
:18:41. > :18:43.domestic elections and there's a lot up for grabs.
:18:44. > :18:46.Local elections take place on the 4th of May in England,
:18:47. > :18:51.In England, there are elections in 34 councils, with 2,370
:18:52. > :18:57.The majority are county councils, usually areas of strength
:18:58. > :19:04.Large cities where Labour usually fares better are not
:19:05. > :19:08.Six regions of England will also hold elections for newly created
:19:09. > :19:11.combined authority mayors, and there will be contests
:19:12. > :19:17.for directly elected mayors, with voters in Manchester,
:19:18. > :19:20.Liverpool and the West Midlands among those going to the polls.
:19:21. > :19:23.In Scotland, every seat in all 32 councils are being contested,
:19:24. > :19:25.many of them affected by boundary changes.
:19:26. > :19:28.Since these seats were last contested, Labour lost all but one
:19:29. > :19:33.Meanwhile, every seat in each of Wales' 22 councils
:19:34. > :19:40.All but one was last elected in 2012 in what was a very
:19:41. > :19:41.strong year for Labour, though independent
:19:42. > :19:44.candidates currently hold a quarter of council seats.
:19:45. > :19:45.According to the latest calculations by Plymouth
:19:46. > :19:51.University Election Centre, the Tories are predicted
:19:52. > :19:54.to increase their tally by 50 seats, despite being in government,
:19:55. > :20:00.But the dramatic story in England looks to be with the other parties,
:20:01. > :20:02.with the Lib-Dems possibly winning 100 seats, while Ukip
:20:03. > :20:08.could be seeing a fall, predicted to lose 100 seats.
:20:09. > :20:10.Though the proportional system usually makes big changes
:20:11. > :20:13.less likely in Scotland, the SNP is predicted to increase
:20:14. > :20:15.both the number of seats they hold, and the number
:20:16. > :20:24.In Wales, Labour is defending a high water mark in support.
:20:25. > :20:27.Last year's Welsh Assembly elections suggest the only way is down,
:20:28. > :20:29.with all the parties making modest gains at Labour's expense.
:20:30. > :20:32.Joining me now is the BBC's very own elections guru,
:20:33. > :20:35.Professor John Curtice of the University of Strathclyde.
:20:36. > :20:42.Good to see you again. Let's start with England. How bad are the
:20:43. > :20:47.selection is going to be for Labour? Labourer not defending a great deal
:20:48. > :20:50.because this is for the most part rural England. The only control
:20:51. > :20:54.three of the council they are defending and they are only
:20:55. > :20:59.defending around 500 seats, I nearly a quarter are in one county, Durham.
:21:00. > :21:02.Labour's position in the opinion polls is weakened over the last 12
:21:03. > :21:15.months and if you compare the position in the opinion polls now
:21:16. > :21:18.with where they were in the spring of 2013 when these seats in England
:21:19. > :21:20.were last fought, we are talking about a 12 point swing from Labour
:21:21. > :21:23.to conservative. The estimate of 50 losses may be somewhat optimistic
:21:24. > :21:27.for Labour. Of the three council areas they control, two of them,
:21:28. > :21:31.Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire, could be lost, leaving labourer with
:21:32. > :21:35.virtually a duck as far as council control is concerned in these
:21:36. > :21:39.elections in England. In England, what would a Liberal Democrat
:21:40. > :21:43.reserve urgently great? That is the big question. We have had this
:21:44. > :21:47.picture since the EU referendum of the Liberal Democrats doing
:21:48. > :21:55.extraordinarily well in some local by-elections, gaining seats that
:21:56. > :21:58.they had not even fought before, and in other areas, doing no more than
:21:59. > :22:00.treading water. We are expecting a Liberal Democrat skin because the
:22:01. > :22:04.lost the lot -- the lost lots of ground when they were in coalition
:22:05. > :22:08.with the Conservatives. It is uncertain. A patchy performance may
:22:09. > :22:12.well be to their advantage. If they do well in some places and gain
:22:13. > :22:15.seats, and elsewhere do not do terribly well and do not waste
:22:16. > :22:20.votes, they may end up doing relatively well in seats, even if
:22:21. > :22:23.the overall gaining votes is likely to be modest. The elections for
:22:24. > :22:56.mayors, they are taking place in the Labour will that be a hefty
:22:57. > :22:58.consolation prize for the Labour Party? It ought to be, on Teesside,
:22:59. > :23:01.Merseyside, Greater Manchester. We are looking at one content very
:23:02. > :23:03.closely, that is the contest for the mayor of the West Midlands. If you
:23:04. > :23:06.look at what happened in the general election in 2015, labourer work nine
:23:07. > :23:08.points ahead of the Conservatives in the West Midlands. If you look at
:23:09. > :23:11.the swing since the general election, if you add that swing to
:23:12. > :23:14.where we were two years ago, the West Midlands now looks like a draw.
:23:15. > :23:16.Labour have to worry about a headline grabbing loss, and the West
:23:17. > :23:18.Midlands contest. If they were to lose, that wooden crate -- that
:23:19. > :23:22.would increase the pressure for their own Jeremy Corbyn to convince
:23:23. > :23:26.people that they can turn his party's fortunes around, and in
:23:27. > :23:30.truth at the moment, they are pretty dire. The West Midlands has
:23:31. > :23:36.Birmingham as its heart. Chock-a-block with marginal seats.
:23:37. > :23:40.It always has been. I always remember election night and marginal
:23:41. > :23:48.seats in the West Midlands. Scotland, the SNP is assaulting
:23:49. > :23:53.Labour's last remaining power base. The biggest prizes Glasgow. Will it
:23:54. > :23:58.take it, the SNP? Whether the SNP will gain control of Glasgow is
:23:59. > :24:02.uncertain. If you look at what is happening in local government
:24:03. > :24:07.by-elections let alone the opinion polls, in 2012, when these seats
:24:08. > :24:11.were last fought, Labour did relatively well, only one percentage
:24:12. > :24:15.point behind the SNP who were rather disappointed with the result
:24:16. > :24:24.compared to other elections. No sign of that happening this time alone --
:24:25. > :24:26.this time around. Polls put the SNP ahead. By-elections have found the
:24:27. > :24:29.SNP advancing and Labour dropping by double digits. Labour are going to
:24:30. > :24:33.lose everything they currently control in Scotland, the SNP will
:24:34. > :24:38.become the dominant party, the question is how well they do. In
:24:39. > :24:42.Scotland there is a Conservative revival going on. The Conservatives
:24:43. > :24:46.did well in recent local government by-elections. At the moment, Labour
:24:47. > :24:54.are expected to come third north of the border in the local elections,
:24:55. > :24:56.repeating the third they suffered in the Holyrood elections last year. In
:24:57. > :25:02.Wales, Labour is expecting to lose control of a number of councils.
:25:03. > :25:06.They are the main party in 12 of 22 local authorities. How bad could it
:25:07. > :25:10.be? We're expecting Labour to lose ground. In the opinion polls when
:25:11. > :25:16.these seats were last fought, labourer in the high 40s. Now they
:25:17. > :25:21.are not much above 30%. Cardiff could well join Glasgow was no
:25:22. > :25:26.longer being a Labour stronghold. Look out for Newport. Some of the
:25:27. > :25:40.South Wales councils that Labour control, Labour is
:25:41. > :25:43.probably too but occasionally, Plaid Cymru surprises in this area. They
:25:44. > :25:45.managed to win the Rhondda seat in the assembly elections. Jeremy
:25:46. > :25:47.Corbyn has said he wants to be judged on proper elections, council
:25:48. > :25:50.elections as opposed to opinion polls, but even if he does as badly
:25:51. > :25:57.as John has been suggesting, does it affect his leadership? I think it
:25:58. > :26:00.does on two counts. It will affect his own confidence. Anyone who is a
:26:01. > :26:04.human being will be affected by this. He might go into his office
:26:05. > :26:09.and be told by John McDonnell and others, stand firm, it is all right,
:26:10. > :26:16.but it will affect his confidence and inevitably it contributes to a
:26:17. > :26:20.sense that this is moving to some kind of denoument, at some point. In
:26:21. > :26:27.other words, while I understand the argument that he has won twice in a
:26:28. > :26:32.leadership contest, well, within 12 months, I wonder whether this can
:26:33. > :26:38.carry on in a fixed term parliament, up until 2020, if it were to do so.
:26:39. > :26:43.On two France, it will have some impact. I am not seeing it will lead
:26:44. > :26:47.to his immediate departure, it will mark, but if these things are as
:26:48. > :26:55.devastating as John suggests, it will have an impact. Tom, I'll be
:26:56. > :26:59.looking at a Lib Dem fightback? That is the $64,000 question. It would
:27:00. > :27:04.seem that we should be. One massive reason we're not having a general
:27:05. > :27:07.election a time soon, apart from the fact that Theresa May does not
:27:08. > :27:13.believe in these things, she believes in pressing on, it is
:27:14. > :27:15.because Tory MPs in the South West who took the Lib Dem seats, they
:27:16. > :27:19.were telling Number 10 they were worried they were going to lose
:27:20. > :27:23.their seats back to the Lib Dems. The Lib Dems never went away and
:27:24. > :27:27.local government. They have got other campaigners and activists. It
:27:28. > :27:32.looks credible that they will be the success story of the whole thing.
:27:33. > :27:37.Ukip leader, Paul Nuttall, he says this will be the most difficult
:27:38. > :27:43.local elections his party will face before 2020. A bit of management of
:27:44. > :27:49.expectations. It is unlikely to be a good time for Ukip. They are right
:27:50. > :27:51.to manage expectations. The results will be horrible for Ukip. I agree
:27:52. > :28:14.with Tom about the Lib Dem threat to the Tories. Talking to
:28:15. > :28:16.some senior figures within the Tory party earlier this week, I was
:28:17. > :28:18.picking up that they are worried about 30-40 general election seeds
:28:19. > :28:21.being vulnerable to the Lib Dems because of the Labour collapse. I
:28:22. > :28:22.would normally agree with Steve about the resilience of politicians,
:28:23. > :28:25.the capability of withstanding repeated blows, but Jeremy Corbyn is
:28:26. > :28:28.not in the normal category. I think he is, in the sense that although he
:28:29. > :28:31.get solace from winning leadership contest, anyone who leads a party
:28:32. > :28:36.into the kind of, it is not going to be that vivid, because they are not
:28:37. > :28:43.defending the key seats. If they were to win Birmingham, say, and get
:28:44. > :28:46.slaughtered by the SNP in Scotland, it will undermine what is already a
:28:47. > :28:49.fairly ambiguous sense of self-confidence. We need to leave it
:28:50. > :28:51.there. Thank you, John Curtice. Well, with those elections
:28:52. > :28:54.on the horizon, is Labour where it Former leader Ed Miliband
:28:55. > :28:57.was on the Andrew Marr Show earlier and he explained
:28:58. > :28:59.the challenge Labour faces It is easier for other parties,
:29:00. > :29:04.if you are the Greens or the Liberal Democrats you're essentially
:29:05. > :29:06.fishing in the 48% pool. If you are Ukip, you are
:29:07. > :29:10.fishing in the 52% pool. Labour is trying to do
:29:11. > :29:12.something much harder, which is to try and speak
:29:13. > :29:14.for the whole country, and by the way, that is another part
:29:15. > :29:17.of Our attack on Theresa May,
:29:18. > :29:21.part of it is she's Ignoring the verdict
:29:22. > :29:27.going into this, saying, let's overturn it, looks
:29:28. > :29:29.like ignoring the 52%. By the way, there is more
:29:30. > :29:35.that unites Remainers and Leavers than might first appear,
:29:36. > :29:37.because they share common concerns about the way
:29:38. > :29:42.the country is run. Joining me now is the Shadow Health
:29:43. > :29:50.Secretary, Jon Ashworth. Welcome to the programme. Alastair
:29:51. > :29:55.Campbell told me on the BBC on Thursday that he is fighting to
:29:56. > :29:59.reverse the referendum result. Ed Miliband says that Remain needs to
:30:00. > :30:05.accept the result, come to terms with it. Who is right? We have to
:30:06. > :30:10.accept the referendum result. I campaigned passionately to remain in
:30:11. > :30:14.the European Union. The city I represent, Leicester, voted narrowly
:30:15. > :30:18.to remain in the European Union. Sadly the country did not. We cannot
:30:19. > :30:24.overturn that and be like kinky nude, trying to demand the tide go
:30:25. > :30:28.back out. We have to accept this democratic process. We all voted to
:30:29. > :30:35.have a referendum when the relevant legislation came to Parliament. How
:30:36. > :30:46.bad will the local elections before Labour? Let us see where we get to
:30:47. > :30:51.on election night when I am sure I will be invited on to one of these
:30:52. > :30:59.types of programmes... The election date, the following day. But it does
:31:00. > :31:03.look like you will lose seats across the board in England, Scotland and
:31:04. > :31:09.Wales. What did you make of what Steve Richards said about the impact
:31:10. > :31:13.on Jeremy Corbyn's leadership? We have to win seats, we cannot fall
:31:14. > :31:21.back on the scales suggested. No, your package was right, it tends to
:31:22. > :31:26.be Tory areas, but generally, we have to be winning in
:31:27. > :31:30.Nottinghamshire, Lancashire, those types of places because they contain
:31:31. > :31:34.a lot of the marginal constituencies that decide general elections. The
:31:35. > :31:40.important places in the elections are towns like Beeston, towns you
:31:41. > :31:46.have not heard of, but they are marginal towns in marginal swing
:31:47. > :31:51.constituencies. We have to do well in them. We will see where we are on
:31:52. > :31:57.election night but my pretty is to campaign hard in these areas over
:31:58. > :32:02.the next few weeks. Even people who voted Labour in 2015, they prefer
:32:03. > :32:07.Theresa May to Mr Corbyn as Prime Minister, a recent poll said. Isn't
:32:08. > :32:17.that extraordinary? I have not seen that. I will look it up. It was you
:32:18. > :32:21.Government. -- YouGov. It is important we win the trust of
:32:22. > :32:26.people. You are not winning the trust of people who voted for you in
:32:27. > :32:31.2015. We have to hold onto people who voted for us in 2015 and we have
:32:32. > :32:35.to persuade people who voted for other parties to come to us. One of
:32:36. > :32:41.the criticisms I have of the debate that goes on in the wider Labour
:32:42. > :32:44.Party, do not misunderstand me, I am not making a criticism about an
:32:45. > :32:49.individual, but the debate you see online suggests that if you want to
:32:50. > :32:54.get people who voted Conservative to switch to Labour it is somehow a
:32:55. > :33:01.betrayal of our principles, it was not. Justin Trudeau said
:33:02. > :33:07.Conservative voters are our neighbours, our relatives. We have
:33:08. > :33:13.to persuade people to switch from voting Conservative to voting Labour
:33:14. > :33:18.as well as increasing our vote among nonvoters and Greens. It seems like
:33:19. > :33:22.you have a mountain to climb and the mountain is Everest. Another poll, I
:33:23. > :33:32.am not sure if you have seen this, in London, the Bastian of Labour,
:33:33. > :33:37.the Bastian of Remain, Mr Corbyn is less popular than even Ukip's Paul
:33:38. > :33:44.Nuttall. That is beyond extraordinary! I do not know about
:33:45. > :33:50.that. The most recent set of elections in London was the mayoral
:33:51. > :33:55.election where the Labour candidate city: won handsomely. He took the
:33:56. > :34:05.seat of a conservative. We took that of a conservative. It was a year
:34:06. > :34:11.ago. We did well then. You had an anti-Jeremy Corbyn candidate. I
:34:12. > :34:16.think he nominated Jeremy Corbyn, from memory. We have not got
:34:17. > :34:24.elections in London but our elections are in the county areas
:34:25. > :34:30.and the various mayoral elections... What about the West Midlands? In any
:34:31. > :34:35.normal year, mid-term, as the opposition, Labour should win the
:34:36. > :34:41.West Midlands. John Curtis says it is nip and tuck. It has always been
:34:42. > :34:44.a swing region but we want to do well, of course. We want to turn out
:34:45. > :34:50.a strong Labour vote in Dudley, Northampton, those sorts of places.
:34:51. > :34:57.They are key constituencies in the general election. Does Labour look
:34:58. > :35:02.like a government in waiting to you? What I would say is contrast where
:35:03. > :35:08.we are to what the conservative garment is doing. I asked you about
:35:09. > :35:11.Labour, you do not get to tell me about the Conservatives. Does it
:35:12. > :35:15.look like a government in waiting to you? Today we are exposing the
:35:16. > :35:21.Conservatives... Reminding people the Conservatives are breaking the
:35:22. > :35:25.pledge on waiting times of 18 weeks so lots of elderly people waiting
:35:26. > :35:31.longer in pain for hip replacements and cataract replacements. Yesterday
:35:32. > :35:36.the Housing spokesperson John Healey was exposing the shortcomings in the
:35:37. > :35:40.Help to Buy scheme. The education spokesperson has been campaigning
:35:41. > :35:43.hard against the cuts to schools. Tom Watson has been campaigning hard
:35:44. > :35:48.against some of the changes the Government want to introduce in
:35:49. > :35:52.culture. The Shadow Cabinet are working hard to hold the
:35:53. > :35:57.Government's feet to the fire. Does it look like a government in
:35:58. > :36:03.waiting? Yes. It took you three times! There is a social care
:36:04. > :36:08.crisis, schools funding issue, a huge issue for lots of areas, the
:36:09. > :36:14.NHS has just got through the winter and is abandoning many of its
:36:15. > :36:21.targets. You are 18 points behind in the polls. We have to work harder.
:36:22. > :36:25.What can you do? The opinion polls are challenging but we are a great
:36:26. > :36:31.Social Democratic Party of government. On Twitter today, lots
:36:32. > :36:35.of Labour activists celebrating that the national minimum wage has been
:36:36. > :36:39.in place for something like 16 years because we were in government. Look
:36:40. > :36:44.of the sweeping progressive changes this country has benefited from, the
:36:45. > :36:48.NHS, sure start centres, an assault on child poverty, the Labour Party
:36:49. > :36:54.got itself in contention for government. I entirely accept the
:36:55. > :36:58.polls do not make thrilling reading for Labour politicians on Sunday
:36:59. > :37:02.morning, but it means people like me have to work harder because we are
:37:03. > :37:05.part of something bigger than an individual, we are in the business
:37:06. > :37:09.of changing things for the British people and if we do not do that, if
:37:10. > :37:13.we do not focus on that, we are letting people down. Is Labour
:37:14. > :37:21.preparing for an early election question Billy burqa? Reports in the
:37:22. > :37:26.press of a war chest as macro for an early election? The general election
:37:27. > :37:30.coordinator called for a general election when Theresa May became
:37:31. > :37:35.Prime Minister. We are investing in staff and the organisational
:37:36. > :37:39.capability we need. By the way, the Labour Party staff do brilliant
:37:40. > :37:44.work. A bit of nonsense on Twitter having a go at them. They do
:37:45. > :37:44.tremendous work. Whenever the election comes, they will be ready.
:37:45. > :37:53.Jon Ashworth, thank you. Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics
:37:54. > :38:06.in Northern Ireland. After a string of criticism,
:38:07. > :38:08.the Secretary of State is intensifying the political
:38:09. > :38:12.talks this week. I'll be asking the SDLP,
:38:13. > :38:15.Ulster Unionists and Alliance what their expectations
:38:16. > :38:19.are for the discussions. And with their thoughts on it all,
:38:20. > :38:21.my guests of the day So, James Brokenshire,
:38:22. > :38:32.the Secretary of State, is to intensify talks at Stormont
:38:33. > :38:36.between the five main parties. It follows some stinging
:38:37. > :38:38.criticism of his approach to the discussions so far,
:38:39. > :38:41.but on Friday, he issued an invitation saying both
:38:42. > :38:44.governments want an agreed agenda So what do the SDLP,
:38:45. > :38:48.Ulster Unionists and Alliance want With me now are Colin McGrath
:38:49. > :38:53.from the SDLP, the Ulster Unionist Party's Doug Beattie
:38:54. > :39:04.and Stephen Farry from Welcome. Thank you for joining us.
:39:05. > :39:07.Colin McGrath, is the fact that round table talks are now happening
:39:08. > :39:17.a sign of actual process Almac progress? It is a move forward. We
:39:18. > :39:20.did not have them in the past. The bilaterals and trilaterals
:39:21. > :39:22.unimportant. Until you get round the table and understand what page
:39:23. > :39:27.everyone is on, you can't make progress. We have asked for this for
:39:28. > :39:33.about 2-3 weeks. We're glad to see them. They had an opportunity but it
:39:34. > :39:37.will not resolve issues. Although it will help us work out where we are
:39:38. > :39:46.and try to map the way forward. For round table discussions to be
:39:47. > :39:52.meaningful, there need to be discussions and something to get
:39:53. > :39:57.your teeth into. Is there any sign that will happen? You are right. I
:39:58. > :40:01.was new to these intensive talks last few weeks and they were
:40:02. > :40:04.absolute shambolic but no structure. Hopefully we will get structure. It
:40:05. > :40:07.is incredibly important people put their own positions on the table and
:40:08. > :40:13.give us a mechanism to talk about it. There are deals being done
:40:14. > :40:21.behind closed doors and no-one knows where anyone stands. We need time
:40:22. > :40:24.and space. So that political parties can manoeuvre and change positions.
:40:25. > :40:28.At this moment in time, the trenches are being dug deeper. We won't go
:40:29. > :40:34.anywhere unless thing radical comes up or some parties are willing to
:40:35. > :40:37.change their stance. You're no stranger to this kind of intense
:40:38. > :40:40.political process. You have been rendered what quite a few times
:40:41. > :40:43.before. Do you get the sense that we are about to be where we maybe
:40:44. > :40:48.should have been several months ago, frankly? In terms of a process, it
:40:49. > :40:53.is a better structure. In terms of the prospects of the agreement, I am
:40:54. > :41:00.not sure we're much further along on that after last few weeks. I have
:41:01. > :41:13.questions and the bun fights -- bona fides. There could be other things
:41:14. > :41:16.down the line well other parties gain an advantage. Is that an
:41:17. > :41:22.admission on your part, that the three of you today represent the
:41:23. > :41:26.smaller the five main parties, and your frankly a bit of a sideshow? We
:41:27. > :41:29.collectively represent many hundreds of thousands of voters. That is a
:41:30. > :41:34.sizeable section of Northern Ireland. Amongst the DUP and Sinn
:41:35. > :41:40.Fein, there has to be a hunger for demolition being restored. What was
:41:41. > :41:43.seen in the last week itself should be a massive wake-up call for the
:41:44. > :41:52.parties. -- for devolution being restored. That means the ship could
:41:53. > :41:59.seal strategic sources in the next 12 months. And in terms of Brexit,
:42:00. > :42:02.from what the European Commission says, the toxin and the border in
:42:03. > :42:09.Ireland will take place in the latter have of this year. We need to
:42:10. > :42:12.have an Executive in place to make headway in that regard. Massive
:42:13. > :42:17.amount of work to be done in a short period of time. Do you accept that
:42:18. > :42:22.for the deal to be done, it has be done by the DUP and Sinn Fein? It
:42:23. > :42:24.doesn't matter what you think your representatives think, what the
:42:25. > :42:27.British and Northern Ireland governments think. It matters in the
:42:28. > :42:34.end of the day that Sinn Fein and DUP agree. If they are not bought
:42:35. > :42:39.into the process, there will be no deal. If they do not make a deal,
:42:40. > :42:41.they will not be ideal. If so, they would have failed the people of
:42:42. > :42:45.Northern Ireland. That does not make us a relevant in any way. We can
:42:46. > :42:51.bring forward things can help them move position. If they want to be
:42:52. > :42:56.moved. Absolutely. If they don't, they will not be moved. That is a
:42:57. > :43:04.failing on their behalf. There was the issue of the flags, identity and
:43:05. > :43:08.culture commission to give us time and space to discuss the issue of
:43:09. > :43:10.the Irish language. There is a report coming out this month and a
:43:11. > :43:14.full report at the end of the year. It gives people the chance to park
:43:15. > :43:19.that issue of the Irish language for nine months until the commission
:43:20. > :43:24.gives its point of view and then we can sit down and discuss those
:43:25. > :43:27.findings. That is reasonable. But the difficulty is of course that
:43:28. > :43:30.both Sinn Fein and the DUP now have read lines on the issue of the Irish
:43:31. > :43:39.language. That does not help. It doesn't. That never helps. If you
:43:40. > :43:42.keep digging the trench deeper, it doesn't help. That is where we are
:43:43. > :43:46.now. That is why you need a reasonable stance. A reasonable
:43:47. > :43:50.stands was to let the commission do its body of work. It is important.
:43:51. > :43:54.Martin McGuinness is one of these people who set up the Fresh Start
:43:55. > :43:59.Agreement. It is part of his legacy. You think it is a good or bad idea
:44:00. > :44:04.that the DUP have introduced in that debate the issue of the military
:44:05. > :44:07.covenant? Is a former soldier, I want to see Phil implementation of
:44:08. > :44:12.the military college in Northern Ireland. It is here in Northern
:44:13. > :44:16.Ireland. In the same way Sinn Fein have not gone into detail to tell us
:44:17. > :44:20.what they want from an Irish language act, it is as if they are
:44:21. > :44:29.using them as flags to fly and big trenches deeper. Colin McGrath, is
:44:30. > :44:32.this a difficulty for the SDLP? You're pretty close to Sinn Fein
:44:33. > :44:36.Bosman position on this. There needs to be a stand-alone Irish language
:44:37. > :44:41.act, not a culture act or minority wine which act, which would embrace
:44:42. > :44:47.Ulster Scots as well. Do you have a deadline on this as well? Sinn Fein
:44:48. > :44:50.are closer to our opinion on this because we had the Private Members'
:44:51. > :44:54.Bill that was in the Assembly to deliver the Irish language act. And
:44:55. > :44:56.whenever the Programme for Government was introduced four
:44:57. > :45:01.months ago, there was no mention of an Irish language act. We think it
:45:02. > :45:09.is important. But what has happened with the Irish language act is it
:45:10. > :45:13.has moved on. Language is important and having access to learning the
:45:14. > :45:16.language is important, but it is about identity and expressing Irish
:45:17. > :45:20.culture. We have had a fundamental dish respect shown to that in the
:45:21. > :45:24.past number of months and years from the DUP. We want to address that.
:45:25. > :45:34.Not to be up about it. We want them to share that journey and express
:45:35. > :45:40.their culture. It should be implemented. You presumably, would
:45:41. > :45:44.want, which are not, an Irish language act that encourages
:45:45. > :45:47.Unionists, Protestants towards the Irish language and does not push
:45:48. > :45:50.them away from it. That is what is happening at the moment. I would
:45:51. > :45:55.like to see an Irish language where you don't have to have the
:45:56. > :46:00.definition of unionist... That is not where we had at the moment. That
:46:01. > :46:04.is where we want to move towards. If we had the Irish language act open
:46:05. > :46:09.to everyone in the community to one, that would be much better. I would
:46:10. > :46:13.not expect it would be a rush of Unionists wanting to learn the Irish
:46:14. > :46:23.language, but if they wanted, it is the. It is a shared. This is one
:46:24. > :46:27.island. Your party leader has said James Brokenshire is not an honest
:46:28. > :46:29.broker in this process and is to be an external toxin so what it. What
:46:30. > :46:40.is the chances of that happening between now and tomorrow? --
:46:41. > :46:44.external Tok -- facilitator for talks.
:46:45. > :46:49.It is a short window of opportunity. James Brokenshire said the whole
:46:50. > :46:54.process is a short window. We have to look at the elements to do with
:46:55. > :46:58.legacy. Is the Secretary of State from the British Cabinet the best
:46:59. > :47:04.person to cheer these -- to be the chairperson of these? The British
:47:05. > :47:08.Government has to step up and take bold decisions and a leap forward.
:47:09. > :47:12.If you have a Secretary of State entrenched in being directed by the
:47:13. > :47:17.Cabinet, is he the best person to arbitrate at the table? You're
:47:18. > :47:23.shaking your head, Peter. I can see what the SDLP stances. But
:47:24. > :47:29.he has been nominated by the Government of the UK. It doesn't
:47:30. > :47:33.mean he is any good. But he has a job to do a day should be allowed to
:47:34. > :47:36.do it. I do like the Gerry Adams as part of the bid discussions. But he
:47:37. > :47:39.is the leader of Sinn Fein 's I have to get on with it and allow him to
:47:40. > :47:43.be. Other parties need to do the same. We have a body of work to be
:47:44. > :47:46.done. If we concern ourselves in the next few weeks with who will be the
:47:47. > :47:51.chairperson of these talks, we will get nowhere. He has a job to do,
:47:52. > :47:55.let's get on and let him do it. What people who are critical of James
:47:56. > :47:59.Brokenshire would say is that Gerry Adams, Sinn Fein, has a mandate to
:48:00. > :48:07.be represented at those talks. James Brokenshire has now mandate. -- has
:48:08. > :48:10.no mandate. He is part of the Government elected into the UK. So
:48:11. > :48:15.he does have a mandate. He is elected as the Secretary of State
:48:16. > :48:22.Gerry Adams is a TD in the Irish Republic. Should he be involved in
:48:23. > :48:28.Strand when talks? There is a number of different ways to look at this.
:48:29. > :48:32.These people have a place to play. The issue is it is about the
:48:33. > :48:37.independence of the chairperson. If you are the main person on one side
:48:38. > :48:46.of the other, can independently be the chairperson? There is another
:48:47. > :48:50.member who is as not independent as a Secretary of State, if you use
:48:51. > :48:56.that yardstick. Your market is about the independence and can you make
:48:57. > :48:59.decisions from the chair? Briefly, I want to talk about the deadline and
:49:00. > :49:04.what it is. Do you think James Brokenshire can do the job that
:49:05. > :49:07.needs to be done? He can, but he needs to address and reflect on some
:49:08. > :49:12.of the issues, particularly in the last couple of months where people
:49:13. > :49:15.have called into question the impartiality of the UK Government
:49:16. > :49:23.and owned legacy issues. Can you understand where people are coming
:49:24. > :49:26.from when they raise that issue? I understand some of the implications
:49:27. > :49:31.and in some of the things said, particularly about the legacy of the
:49:32. > :49:35.past and how that could be perceived with the role. But the important
:49:36. > :49:38.thing is we need to get on with the talks because as you say, we have a
:49:39. > :49:43.looming of some description in this month of April. Time is not on our
:49:44. > :49:46.side in this regard. There is ready built consequences in terms of
:49:47. > :49:50.finances in particular and that has resulted in people losing jobs. It
:49:51. > :49:56.is critical and health services in crisis. There are major problems
:49:57. > :50:04.reported last week. These things affect people's lives. So we hear
:50:05. > :50:08.that it has been reported that the Secretary of State is trying to
:50:09. > :50:12.reshape the process beginning tomorrow, where there will be added
:50:13. > :50:16.structure and urgency to the process described as shambolic in recent
:50:17. > :50:21.weeks. What you think the timescale is now? What is the new deadline,
:50:22. > :50:26.since we failed to meet last Monday's deadline? In effect, he
:50:27. > :50:30.wants to put legislation in parliament in the latter half of
:50:31. > :50:35.April after Easter recess. Coming back on April 18? Tok 's could
:50:36. > :50:46.happen in parallel with that legislative process. We have to bear
:50:47. > :50:50.in mind, it is very technical, but we could lose close to ?1 billion in
:50:51. > :50:55.terms of spending if we lose about two collect rates. It is a very
:50:56. > :51:00.practical deadline in terms of financial situation. Not having our
:51:01. > :51:05.Government as a luxury we cannot afford. Does the timescale make
:51:06. > :51:09.sense as far as the Ulster Unionists are concerned? It does. We see the
:51:10. > :51:15.next ten days as ten days of structured talks. And we hope for an
:51:16. > :51:18.agreement we can buy into. We are looking for a reason to go into the
:51:19. > :51:22.Executive. We're not looking for a reason to stay out. That is the
:51:23. > :51:26.Ulster Unionist position, but the you believe the bona fides of the
:51:27. > :51:32.other parties? Do you believe Gerry Adams wants devil is -- devolution
:51:33. > :51:38.restored in Northern Ireland? If I am honest, I think he does not. He
:51:39. > :51:41.puts his red line and because he thinks it will not be crossed by
:51:42. > :51:46.other parties. Some of the things put into garish language, we could
:51:47. > :51:49.never buy into it and he knows that. The DUP have thrown out the Armed
:51:50. > :51:52.Forces Covenant and he knows that Sinn Fein cannot buy into that. I am
:51:53. > :51:59.as they do not believe Sinn Fein do what that agreement. -- honestly do
:52:00. > :52:03.not believe. The party is not yet a speaker itself, but when you spoke
:52:04. > :52:09.to representatives of Sinn Fein, they are clear that they want to see
:52:10. > :52:11.devolution. Colin McGrath. As well as political parties wanting
:52:12. > :52:16.devolution restored, the most important people are the people in
:52:17. > :52:19.communities on the ground. They came out in huge numbers to support
:52:20. > :52:23.parties that said they wanted to form an Executive and come back in.
:52:24. > :52:26.When people give you that mandate, you have an obligation to respond
:52:27. > :52:33.and deliver what people have asked you to do. All the petty squabbling
:52:34. > :52:35.that you can have up the hill and Stormont will not resonate with
:52:36. > :52:39.people who have had health centres closed down and there is crisis
:52:40. > :52:43.after crisis in the public sector. We look to them to sort it out in
:52:44. > :52:47.the next ten days. In the meantime, you will know that there is a great
:52:48. > :52:51.amount of public disquiet because MLAs are still being paid. You all
:52:52. > :52:54.got a ?500 pay increase yesterday, which happened to be April Fools'
:52:55. > :53:00.Day. People wonder, what in heaven 's name is going on? Can you
:53:01. > :53:04.understand that? I absolutely can't. In many ways, I am ashamed that we
:53:05. > :53:09.are not producing... You are ashamed? I am. Personally, as a
:53:10. > :53:14.politician, I am ashamed that they are not producing what we need to be
:53:15. > :53:18.bought Northern Ireland. But I went on a six-week interview to be an MLA
:53:19. > :53:21.and then I was tested and elected. I worked from that moment onwards for
:53:22. > :53:27.ten days without pay. And I am working hard as an MLA. Now, if they
:53:28. > :53:32.turn round and say, stop might be, I have to go elsewhere. But my
:53:33. > :53:39.constituency officers to say. Are you ashamed of what is going on?
:53:40. > :53:44.Something has to give in that regard, particularly getting a pay
:53:45. > :53:47.rise when people are losing jobs because of the budget.
:53:48. > :53:51.Thank you very much indeed for that. We will have to leave it for now.
:53:52. > :53:55.Let's hear what Lesley Carroll and Brian Feeney make of that.
:53:56. > :54:02.Brian, what are your thoughts about the talks, kick-started tomorrow by
:54:03. > :54:09.James Brokenshire, of who it is feared as a young -- it is fair to
:54:10. > :54:16.say you're no great fan, what will happen with the process?
:54:17. > :54:20.I don't think it will happen before Easter. The smaller parties want
:54:21. > :54:23.round table talks. But as you said at the outset, there has to be
:54:24. > :54:27.something at the table for people to discuss. So far, the papers
:54:28. > :54:33.presented, particularly the one from James Brokenshire on legacy, was
:54:34. > :54:36.just waffle and no use at all. The real business will be done behind
:54:37. > :54:41.closed doors. Obviously, the smaller parties won't rent table tops to
:54:42. > :54:49.hear what is going on and what the DUP and Sinn Fein are saying. --
:54:50. > :54:57.smaller parties want round table talks. Sinn Fein's priority is not
:54:58. > :55:01.establishing an Executive. It will not happen until the shopping list
:55:02. > :55:07.has been addressed. Are you optimistic?
:55:08. > :55:13.I am not overly optimistic. I would say that, from looking will.i.am,
:55:14. > :55:15.the talks are shambolic. That is not because of James Brokenshire but
:55:16. > :55:29.because we have had a shambolic Government for years. -- from
:55:30. > :55:32.looking where I am. We have a set of Executive relationships were smaller
:55:33. > :55:35.parties with maybe one or two ministers have not had the voice
:55:36. > :55:40.that they thought they should have had at Executive level. There has
:55:41. > :55:44.not been a relationship of respect and understanding of each other and
:55:45. > :55:51.collaboration that makes Government within system work. In my view, the
:55:52. > :55:55.talks are not shambolic because of James Brokenshire of the specific
:55:56. > :55:59.issues of these talks because ball-mac but because the have built
:56:00. > :56:03.a number of years in Government. You have been an observer of nationalism
:56:04. > :56:07.and Republicanism for many years. Do you believe Sinn Fein can only once
:56:08. > :56:13.Stormont to be restored? -- currently wants. They wanted
:56:14. > :56:17.restored in a different way. They have said repeatedly there will not
:56:18. > :56:21.be a return to the status quo or business as usual. They want
:56:22. > :56:28.changes. These Sinn Fein red lines are for real? They are. But don't
:56:29. > :56:32.forget, the eyes are fixed on Dublin and the fact there is a non-stable
:56:33. > :56:36.Government there and it could be a general election in May or
:56:37. > :56:42.September. They would like a position to be in Government... Not
:56:43. > :56:49.with Gerry Adams as leader. Adams could well move in the next year.
:56:50. > :56:52.There is lot of stuff happening. They don't want to be part of a
:56:53. > :56:58.Northern Ireland team on Brexit. They want to do the negotiations of
:56:59. > :57:03.Brexit through the Irish Government, not Stormont. Will talk more about
:57:04. > :57:07.Brexit hopefully towards the end. Briefly, public disenchantment, we
:57:08. > :57:11.had Doug Beattie say that his ashamed politicians are receiving
:57:12. > :57:15.money and progress that 's to be made is not being made. People are
:57:16. > :57:21.not happy with what they are seeing. -- that should be made. People are
:57:22. > :57:26.not happy. The business community will not get corporation tax changes
:57:27. > :57:30.they had hoped for by April, the Lord Chief Justice doctor about the
:57:31. > :57:34.criminal just as system, changes the needed and not happening. And
:57:35. > :57:35.Stephen referred to the committee voluntary sector. It is a disaster.
:57:36. > :57:38.Thank you very much. Let's just pause for a moment
:57:39. > :57:42.to take a look back at the political week in 60 seconds
:57:43. > :57:45.with Gareth Gordon. With the stroke of a pen,
:57:46. > :57:57.the United Kingdom took its first The Article 50 process is now under
:57:58. > :57:59.way. In accordance with the wishes of the British people, the United
:58:00. > :58:01.Kingdom is leaving the European Union.
:58:02. > :58:04.But not everyone here is happy with the direction of travel.
:58:05. > :58:11.This will be the biggest economic catastrophe in years. Our job is to
:58:12. > :58:15.protect citizens and committees and businesses here. It will be
:58:16. > :58:21.detrimental to the people of Ireland. We need to have parties
:58:22. > :58:24.working together in the national interest and special staters for the
:58:25. > :58:25.island of Ireland. still has confidence
:58:26. > :58:32.in the Stormont talks process. The intensity of discussions are
:58:33. > :58:37.stepped up with renewed intensity and for Chris. -- focus.
:58:38. > :58:43.I would encourage James Brokenshire to be more assertive in top.
:58:44. > :58:46.Perhaps the former Scottish First Minister is the man for the job.
:58:47. > :58:52.If there is anything I could do to help the process, I would be very
:58:53. > :59:04.willing to do so. Let's stick with Brexit.
:59:05. > :59:05.We have mentioned that they are being the biggest economic
:59:06. > :59:06.catastrophe since partition. It was a big week as far
:59:07. > :59:15.as Brexit's concerned. Where does Northern Ireland stand in
:59:16. > :59:19.the wider debate? There is no wider debate because there is not an
:59:20. > :59:23.agreed was issued. And it will not be an agreed position because Sinn
:59:24. > :59:27.Fein and the DUP will not agree with being part of a British delegation.
:59:28. > :59:30.James Brokenshire is not even on the Cabinet committee supposed to be
:59:31. > :59:35.dealing with Brexit. He does not have a seat on it. Northern Ireland
:59:36. > :59:37.just does not figure in the UK's grander scheme. The British
:59:38. > :59:43.Government brought this referendum in with no idea, no concern about
:59:44. > :59:48.the consequences on the island of Ireland. They do not care.
:59:49. > :59:52.Theresa May repeatedly refers to strengthening the union. That is her
:59:53. > :59:58.mantra. Alex Salmond, we saw an extract of him there, said, if you
:59:59. > :00:06.add a man from farmer, you should be worried about the direction of the
:00:07. > :00:14.UK's travel on this direction. -- if you are a farmer from Antrim. Do you
:00:15. > :00:19.agree? I do agree. There was a reference to
:00:20. > :00:25.follow the Berlin Wall in comparison. It sounded dramatic at
:00:26. > :00:29.the time, but perhaps he is not wrong. The implications for elation
:00:30. > :00:31.ships here and across Europe and on these islands are significant enough
:00:32. > :00:38.to be thinking in these terms. Theresa May wrote to Brussels and
:00:39. > :00:43.David Davies Road to Stormont... There has been a lot of ink used in
:00:44. > :00:48.last week. Not always with good results. You would think they would
:00:49. > :00:51.have a great deal of care about what was in these letters. Theresa May
:00:52. > :00:57.has been criticised for linking intelligence with negotiations and
:00:58. > :01:06.also Gibraltar. Gibraltar as a whole other
:01:07. > :01:08.So, what will be the effect of new tax and benefit changes
:01:09. > :01:12.Will the Government's grand trade tour reap benefits?
:01:13. > :01:14.And are the Lib Dems really going to replace Labour,
:01:15. > :01:26.To answer that last question, I'm joined by from Salford
:01:27. > :01:31.by the Lib Dem MP, Alistair Carmichael.
:01:32. > :01:40.Michael Fallon sirs the Lib Dems will replace Labour. How long will
:01:41. > :01:46.it take? We will have to wait and see. Anyone who thinks you can
:01:47. > :01:51.predict the future is engaged in a dodgy game. I have been campaigning
:01:52. > :01:56.with the Liberal Democrats in Manchester... You must not
:01:57. > :02:03.mention... You know the by-election rules. It is only an illustration.
:02:04. > :02:13.Across false ways of the country, the Liberal Democrats are back in
:02:14. > :02:17.business -- across whole swathes of the country. Part of the reason why
:02:18. > :02:22.we are getting a good response is because the Labour Party under
:02:23. > :02:27.Jeremy Corbyn has taken such a self-destructive path. Even if you
:02:28. > :02:31.do pretty well in the local elections, it you have to make up
:02:32. > :02:38.lost ground from the time you did very well in previous times, you
:02:39. > :02:42.used to have 4700 councillors. It will take you a long while to get
:02:43. > :02:46.back to that. You will get no argument from me that we have a
:02:47. > :02:51.mountain to climb. What I'm telling you is, and if this is not just in
:02:52. > :02:56.this round of elections, it is in the other by-elections in places
:02:57. > :03:01.like Richmond, and in by-elections write the length and breadth of the
:03:02. > :03:05.country since last June, the Liberal Democrats are taking seats from the
:03:06. > :03:13.Labour Party under Conservative Party, and not just in Brexit phobic
:03:14. > :03:17.areas. Not just in Remain areas. But in places like Sunderland as well
:03:18. > :03:23.which voted very heavily for Brexit. In fact, that vote was in large part
:03:24. > :03:27.as well a protest against the way in which the Labour Party really has
:03:28. > :03:32.taken these areas for granted over the years. That is why the ground is
:03:33. > :03:38.fertile for us. In the local elections which is what we are
:03:39. > :03:42.discussing today, why would anybody vote for the Liberal Democrats if
:03:43. > :03:51.they believed in Brexit? Mr Farren has said he wants to reverse works.
:03:52. > :03:55.If you are Brexit supporter and you are considering how to cast your
:03:56. > :03:59.vote, first of all, I think you will be looking at the quality of
:04:00. > :04:02.representation you can get for your local area and you are right, we
:04:03. > :04:11.have a lot of ground to recoup from previous elections, we lost 124
:04:12. > :04:16.seats, communities have now had a few years to reflect on the quality
:04:17. > :04:19.of service they have been able to get and they have missed the very
:04:20. > :04:25.effective liberal Democrat councillors they have had. This is
:04:26. > :04:30.not just about whether you are a believer or remainer, ultimately,
:04:31. > :04:36.that is an issue we are going to have to settle and we will settle it
:04:37. > :04:40.not in the way the Government is having by dictating the terms of the
:04:41. > :04:45.debate, but by bringing the whole country together. I think that is
:04:46. > :04:49.something you can only do if, as we have suggested, you give the people
:04:50. > :04:52.the opportunity to have a say on the deal when Theresa May eventually
:04:53. > :04:58.produces it. The only way you could really replace Labour in the
:04:59. > :05:03.foreseeable future would be if a big chunk of the centre and right of the
:05:04. > :05:08.Labour Party came over and join due in some kind of new social
:05:09. > :05:13.democratic alliance. -- joined you. There is no sign that will happen? I
:05:14. > :05:17.do not see whether common purpose is anymore holding the Labour Party
:05:18. > :05:22.together. That is for people in the Labour Party to make their own
:05:23. > :05:30.decisions. Use what happened to the Labour Party in Scotland. -- you
:05:31. > :05:34.saw. Politics moved on and left them behind and they were decimated as a
:05:35. > :05:38.consequence of that. So was your party. It is possible the same thing
:05:39. > :05:44.could happen to the Labour Party and the rest of the UK. Politics is
:05:45. > :05:50.moving on and they are coming up with 1970s solutions to problems in
:05:51. > :05:56.2017. Alistair Carmichael, thanks for joining us. Let us have a look
:05:57. > :06:02.at some of the tax and benefit changes coming up this week. The tax
:06:03. > :06:06.changes first of all. The personal allowance is going to rise to
:06:07. > :06:11.?11,500, the level at which you start to pay tax. The higher rate
:06:12. > :06:17.threshold, where you start to play at 40%, that will rise from
:06:18. > :06:26.currently ?43,400, rising up to 40 5000. -- pay. Benefit changes,
:06:27. > :06:33.freeze on working age benefits, removal of the family element of tax
:06:34. > :06:37.credits and universal credit, that is a technical change but quite an
:06:38. > :06:44.impact. The child element of tax credit is going to be limited to two
:06:45. > :06:51.children on any new claims. The Resolution Foundation has crunched
:06:52. > :06:57.the numbers and they discovered that when you take the tax and benefit
:06:58. > :07:05.changes together, 80% go to better off households and the poorest third
:07:06. > :07:10.or worse. What help -- what happened to help the just about managing? The
:07:11. > :07:14.Resolution Foundation exists to find the worst possible statistics... It
:07:15. > :07:21.is not clear the figures are wrong? They are fairly recent figures and I
:07:22. > :07:24.have not seen analysis by other organisations. The Adam Smith
:07:25. > :07:29.Institute will probably have some question marks over it. Nobody
:07:30. > :07:32.should be surprised a Tory government is trying to make the
:07:33. > :07:39.state smaller... And the poor poorer. The system is propped up by
:07:40. > :07:42.better off people and so it will be those people who will be slightly
:07:43. > :07:50.less heavily taxed as you make the state smaller. Theresa May will have
:07:51. > :07:54.to stop just talking about the just about managing. And some of her
:07:55. > :07:59.other language and the role of the government and the state when she
:08:00. > :08:03.sounded quite positive... She sounded like a big government
:08:04. > :08:08.conservative not small government. In every set piece occasion, she
:08:09. > :08:16.says, it is time to look at the good the government can do. That is not
:08:17. > :08:19.what you heard from Mrs Thatcher. Tony Blair and Gordon Brown would
:08:20. > :08:24.not have dared to say it either even if they believed it. It raises a
:08:25. > :08:31.much bigger question which is, as well as whether this is a set of
:08:32. > :08:35.progressive measures, the Resolution Foundation constantly argued when
:08:36. > :08:38.George Osborne announced his budget measures as progressive when they
:08:39. > :08:42.were regressive when they checked out the figures, but also how this
:08:43. > :08:47.government was going to meet the demand for public services when it
:08:48. > :08:52.has ruled out virtually any tax rises that you would normally do
:08:53. > :08:57.now, including National Insurance. There are a whole range of nightmare
:08:58. > :09:01.issues on Philip Hammond's in-tray in relation to tax. The Resolution
:09:02. > :09:06.Foundation figures do not include the rise in the minimum wage which
:09:07. > :09:10.has just gone under way. They do not include the tax free childcare from
:09:11. > :09:15.the end of April, the extra 15 hours of free childcare from September.
:09:16. > :09:19.Even when you include these, it does not look like it would offset the
:09:20. > :09:25.losses of the poorest households. Doesn't that have to be a problem
:09:26. > :09:28.for Theresa May? It really is a problem especially when her
:09:29. > :09:33.narrative and indeed entire purpose in government is for that just about
:09:34. > :09:38.managing. What Mrs May still has which is exactly a problem they have
:09:39. > :09:41.at the budget and the Autumn Statement is that they are still
:09:42. > :09:48.saddled with George Osborne's massive ring fences on tax cuts and
:09:49. > :09:52.spending. They have to go through with the tax cut for the middle
:09:53. > :09:55.classes by pushing up the higher rate threshold which is absolutely
:09:56. > :09:59.going to do nothing for the just about managing. When they try to
:10:00. > :10:02.mitigate that, for example, in the Autumn Statement, Philip Hammond was
:10:03. > :10:07.told to come up with more money to ease the cuts in tax credits, came
:10:08. > :10:13.up with 350 million, an absolute... It is billions and billions
:10:14. > :10:17.involved. Marginal adjustment. A huge problem with the actual tax and
:10:18. > :10:21.benefit changes going on with what Mrs May as saying. The only way to
:10:22. > :10:25.fix it is coming up with more money to alleviate that. Where will you
:10:26. > :10:30.find it? Philip Hammond tried in the Budget with the National Insurance
:10:31. > :10:35.rises but it lasted six and a half days. I was told that it was one of
:10:36. > :10:40.the reasons why the Chancellor looked kindly on the idea of an
:10:41. > :10:46.early election because he wanted to get rid of what he regards as an
:10:47. > :10:50.albatross around his neck, the Tory manifesto 2015, no increase in
:10:51. > :10:55.income tax, no increase in VAT, no increase in National Insurance, fuel
:10:56. > :10:59.duty was not cut when fuel prices were falling so it is hardly going
:11:00. > :11:05.to rise now when they are rising again. This is why, I suggest, they
:11:06. > :11:09.end up in these incredibly complicated what we used to call
:11:10. > :11:14.stealth taxes as ways of trying to raise money and invariably a blow up
:11:15. > :11:19.in your face. Stealth taxes never end up being stealthy. It is part of
:11:20. > :11:26.the narrative that budget begins to fall apart within hours. You have to
:11:27. > :11:29.have sympathy, as Tom says, with Philip Hammond. No wonder he would
:11:30. > :11:33.like to be liberated. The early election will not happen. The best
:11:34. > :11:37.argument I have heard for an early election. The tax and spend about at
:11:38. > :11:43.the last election was a disaster partly because the Conservatives
:11:44. > :11:47.feared they would lose. Maybe they could be a bit more candid about the
:11:48. > :11:54.need to put up some taxes to pay for public services and it is very
:11:55. > :11:57.interesting what you picked up on Philip Hammond because he is
:11:58. > :12:04.trapped. So constrained about... You can also reopen the Ring fencing and
:12:05. > :12:10.spending and the obvious place to go is the triple lock, OAP spending.
:12:11. > :12:16.Another case for an election. He cannot undo the promise to that
:12:17. > :12:20.demographic. We will not get to 2020 without something breaking. The
:12:21. > :12:27.Prime Minister, the trade secretary and Mr Hammond, they are off to
:12:28. > :12:33.India, the Far East, talking up trade with these countries, I do not
:12:34. > :12:38.know if any of you are going? Sadly not. Will it produce dividends? The
:12:39. > :12:45.prime Minster is going somewhere too. No, it will not, the honest
:12:46. > :12:48.answer. No one will do a trade deal with us because we cannot do one
:12:49. > :12:51.because we are still in the EU and they need to know what our terms
:12:52. > :12:56.will be with the EU first before they can work out how they want to
:12:57. > :13:00.trade with us. This is vital preparatory work. Ministers always
:13:01. > :13:04.go somewhere in recess, it is what they do. We will not see anything in
:13:05. > :13:10.a hurry, we will not see anything for two years. They have to do it.
:13:11. > :13:16.Whatever side of the joint you are on, Brexit, remain, we need to get
:13:17. > :13:19.out there. -- the argument. We should have been doing this the day
:13:20. > :13:23.after the referendum result. It is now several months down the line and
:13:24. > :13:29.they need to step it up, not the opposite. You can make some informal
:13:30. > :13:33.talks, I guess. You can say, Britain is open for business. There is a
:13:34. > :13:39.symbolism to it. What a lot of energy sucked up into this.
:13:40. > :13:45.Parliament is not sitting so they might as well start talking. We have
:13:46. > :13:49.run out of energy and time. That is it for today. We are off for the
:13:50. > :13:54.Easter recess, back in two weeks' time. If it is Sunday, it is the
:13:55. > :14:21.Sunday Politics. Unless it is that used to recess! -- Easter recess.
:14:22. > :14:24.Marine Le Pen has her eyes on the French presidency.
:14:25. > :14:29.As she tries to distance herself from her party's controversial past,