:00:36. > :00:40.It's Sunday morning, and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:41. > :00:44.Theresa May pledged to help people who are "just about managing",
:00:45. > :00:46.and this week her government will announce new measures to boost
:00:47. > :00:49.the number of affordable homes and improve conditions for renters.
:00:50. > :01:00.After a US court suspends Donald Trump's travel ban and rules
:01:01. > :01:04.it could be unconstitutional, one of the President's inner circle
:01:05. > :01:07.tells me there is no "chaos", and that Donald Trump's White House
:01:08. > :01:10.is making good on his campaign promises.
:01:11. > :01:12.As the Government gets into gear for two years
:01:13. > :01:15.of Brexit negotiations, we report on the haggling to come
:01:16. > :01:18.over the UK's Brexit bill for leaving the European Union -
:01:19. > :01:22.and the costs and savings once we've left.
:01:23. > :01:43.And with me, as always, a trio of top political
:01:44. > :01:45.journalists - Helen Lewis, Tom Newton Dunn
:01:46. > :01:49.They'll be tweeting throughout the programme,
:01:50. > :01:55.So, more anguish to come this week for the Labour party as the House
:01:56. > :01:58.of Commons continues to debate the bill which paves the way
:01:59. > :02:04.Last week, Labour split over the Article 50 bill,
:02:05. > :02:07.with a fifth of Labour MPs defying Jeremy Corbyn to vote against.
:02:08. > :02:12.Five shadow ministers resigned, and it's expected Mr Corbyn
:02:13. > :02:15.will have to sack more frontbenchers once the bill is voted
:02:16. > :02:19.Add to that the fact that the Labour Leader's close ally
:02:20. > :02:22.Diane Abbot failed to turn up for the initial vote -
:02:23. > :02:24.blaming illness - and things don't look too rosy
:02:25. > :02:27.The Shadow Foreign Secretary Emily Thornberry was asked
:02:28. > :02:31.about the situation earlier on the Andrew Marr show.
:02:32. > :02:35.The Labour Party is a national party and we represent the nation,
:02:36. > :02:39.and the nation is divided on this, and it is very difficult.
:02:40. > :02:45.Many MPs representing majority Remain constituencies have this very
:02:46. > :02:47.difficult balancing act between - do I represent my constituency,
:02:48. > :02:51.Labour, as a national party, have a clear view.
:02:52. > :02:59.We fought to stay in Europe, but the public have spoken,
:03:00. > :03:04.But the important thing now is not to give Theresa May a blank check,
:03:05. > :03:10.we have to make sure we get the right deal for the country.
:03:11. > :03:17.That was Emily Thornberry. Helen, is this like a form of Chinese water
:03:18. > :03:21.torture for the Labour Party? And for journalists, to! We are in a
:03:22. > :03:25.situation where no one really thinks it's working. A lot of authority has
:03:26. > :03:29.drained away from Jeremy Corbyn but no one can do anything about it.
:03:30. > :03:34.What we saw from the leadership contest is on the idea of a Blairite
:03:35. > :03:38.plot to get rid of him. You are essentially stuck in stasis. The
:03:39. > :03:43.only person that can remove Jeremy Corbyn is God or Jeremy Corbyn.
:03:44. > :03:47.Authority may have moved from Mr Corbyn but it's not going anywhere
:03:48. > :03:54.else, there's not an alternative centre of authority? Not quite, but
:03:55. > :03:58.Clive Lewis is name emerging, the Shadow Business Secretary. A lot of
:03:59. > :04:02.the Labour left, people like Paul Mason, really like him and would
:04:03. > :04:06.like to see him in Corbyn. I think that's why Jeremy Corbyn do
:04:07. > :04:12.something extraordinary next week and abstain from Article 50, the
:04:13. > :04:18.main bill itself, to keep his Shadow Cabinet together. That clip on
:04:19. > :04:22.Andrew Marr, point blank refusing to say if Labour will vote for Article
:04:23. > :04:28.50. The only way Jeremy Corbyn can hold this mess together now is to
:04:29. > :04:31.abstain, which would be catastrophic across Brexit constituencies in the
:04:32. > :04:38.North. The problem with abstention is everyone will say on the issue of
:04:39. > :04:43.our time, the official opposition hasn't got coherent or considered
:04:44. > :04:46.policy? I love the way Emily Thornberry said the country is
:04:47. > :04:49.divided and we represent the country, in other words we are
:04:50. > :04:52.divided at the party as well. The other thing that was a crucial
:04:53. > :04:57.moment this week is the debate over whether there should be a so-called
:04:58. > :05:01.meaningful vote by MPs on the deal that Theresa May gets. That is a
:05:02. > :05:08.point of real danger for Brexit supporters. It may well be there is
:05:09. > :05:11.a coalition of Labour and SNP and Remain MPs, Tory MPs, who vote for
:05:12. > :05:16.that so-called meaningful vote that could undermine Theresa May's
:05:17. > :05:21.negotiation. So Theresa May could have had troubles as well, not plain
:05:22. > :05:26.sailing for her? There is no point, apart from lonely Ken Clarke voting
:05:27. > :05:29.against Article 50, no point in Tory remainders rebelling. It would have
:05:30. > :05:33.been a token gesture with no support. But there might be
:05:34. > :05:37.meaningful amendments. One might be on the status of EU nationals... The
:05:38. > :05:46.government could lose that. There might be a majority for some of
:05:47. > :05:48.those amendments. The ins and outs of the Labour Party, it fascinates
:05:49. > :05:51.the Labour Party and journalists. I suspect the country has just moved
:05:52. > :05:55.on and doesn't care. You are probably quite right. To be honest I
:05:56. > :06:00.struggled to get Labour split stories in my paper any more, the
:06:01. > :06:06.bar is so high to make it news. Where it does matter is now not
:06:07. > :06:11.everyone will pay huge amounts to the -- of attention to the vote on
:06:12. > :06:16.Wednesday. But come the general election in 2020, maybe a little
:06:17. > :06:19.earlier, every Tory leaflet and every labour constituency will say
:06:20. > :06:22.this guy, this goal, they refuse to vote for Brexit, do you want them in
:06:23. > :06:27.power? That is going to be really hard for them. The story next week
:06:28. > :06:32.may be Tory splits rather than just Labour ones, we will see.
:06:33. > :06:36.Theresa May has made a big deal out of her commitment to help people
:06:37. > :06:38.on middle incomes who are "just about managing", and early this week
:06:39. > :06:42.we should get a good sense of what that means in practice -
:06:43. > :06:44.when plans to bring down the cost of housing and protect renters
:06:45. > :06:46.are published in the Government's new white paper.
:06:47. > :06:49.Theresa May has promised she'll kick off Brexit negotiations with the EU
:06:50. > :06:51.by the end of March, and after months of shadow-boxing
:06:52. > :06:55.Ellie Price reports on the battle to come over the UK's Brexit bill,
:06:56. > :06:58.and the likely costs and savings once we've left.
:06:59. > :07:00.It was the figure that defined the EU referendum campaign.
:07:01. > :07:06.It was also a figure that was fiercely disputed, but the promise -
:07:07. > :07:09.vote leave and Britain won't have to pay into the EU are any more.
:07:10. > :07:11.So, is that what's going to happen now?
:07:12. > :07:14.The trouble with buses is you tend to have to wait for them
:07:15. > :07:17.and when Theresa May triggers Article 50, the clock starts
:07:18. > :07:21.She needs something quicker, something more sporty.
:07:22. > :07:27.According to the most recent Treasury figures,
:07:28. > :07:30.Britain's gross contribution to the EU, after the rebate
:07:31. > :07:33.is taken into account, is about ?14 billion a year.
:07:34. > :07:38.There are some complicating factors that means it can go up
:07:39. > :07:41.or down year on year, but that's roughly how much the UK
:07:42. > :07:43.will no longer sending to Brussels post-Brexit.
:07:44. > :07:46.But, there are other payments that Britain will have to shell out for.
:07:47. > :07:49.First and foremost, the so-called divorce settlement.
:07:50. > :07:55.It is being said, and openly by Commissioner Barnier
:07:56. > :07:59.and others in the Commission, that the total financial liability
:08:00. > :08:02.as they see it might be in the order of 40-60 billion
:08:03. > :08:07.The BBC understands the figure EU negotiators are likely
:08:08. > :08:12.to settle on is far lower, around 34 billion euros,
:08:13. > :08:15.but what does the money they are going to argue
:08:16. > :08:21.Well, that's how much Britain owes for stuff in the EU budget that's
:08:22. > :08:23.already signed up for until 2020, one year after we are
:08:24. > :08:28.Historically, Britain pays 12% in contributions,
:08:29. > :08:31.so the cost to the UK is likely to be between ten
:08:32. > :08:40.Then they will look at the 200-250 billion euros of underfunded
:08:41. > :08:41.spending commitments, the so-called RAL.
:08:42. > :08:49.Britain could also be liable for around 5-7 billion euros
:08:50. > :08:54.for its share in the pensions bill for EU staff, that's again
:08:55. > :08:55.12% of an overall bill of 50-60 billion.
:08:56. > :08:58.Finally there's a share of our assets held by the EU.
:08:59. > :09:03.They include things like this building, the European Commission
:09:04. > :09:11.Britain could argue it deserves a share back of around 18 billion
:09:12. > :09:13.euros from a portfolio that's said to be worth 153 billion euros.
:09:14. > :09:16.So, lots for the two sides to discuss in two years of talks.
:09:17. > :09:19.They have a great opportunity with the Article 50 talks
:09:20. > :09:24.because actually they can hold us to ransom.
:09:25. > :09:27.They can say, "You figure out money, we will talk about your trade.
:09:28. > :09:30.But until you've figured out the money, we won't," so I think
:09:31. > :09:32.a lot of European states think they are in a very strong
:09:33. > :09:35.negotiating position at the moment and they intend to make
:09:36. > :09:40.The principle is clear, the days of Britain making vast
:09:41. > :09:45.contributions to the European Union every year will end.
:09:46. > :09:50.Theresa May has already indicated that she would want to sign back up
:09:51. > :09:56.to a number of EU agencies on a program-by-program basis.
:09:57. > :09:58.The Europol for example, that's the European crime
:09:59. > :10:03.agency, or Erasmus Plus, which wants student exchanges.
:10:04. > :10:06.If everything stays the same as it is now, it would cost the UK
:10:07. > :10:08.675 million euros a year, based on analysis by
:10:09. > :10:17.But there are likely to be agencies we don't choose to participate in.
:10:18. > :10:27.If we only opted back to those dealing with security,
:10:28. > :10:28.trade, universities and, say, climate change,
:10:29. > :10:31.it could come with a price tag of 370 million euros per year.
:10:32. > :10:33.Of course that's if our European neighbours allow us.
:10:34. > :10:35.I wonder if they're going to let me in!
:10:36. > :10:39.There will also be a cost to creating a new system to resolve
:10:40. > :10:41.trade disputes with other nations once we are no longer part
:10:42. > :10:46.Take the EFTA Court which rules on disputes
:10:47. > :10:48.between the EU and Norway, Iceland and Lichtenstein.
:10:49. > :10:54.That costs 4 million euros to run each year,
:10:55. > :10:56.though in the Brexit White Paper published this week,
:10:57. > :10:59.the Government said it will not be constrained by precedent
:11:00. > :11:04.Finally, would the EU get behind the idea of Britain making some
:11:05. > :11:10.contribution for some preferential access to its market?
:11:11. > :11:13.The sort of thing that Theresa May seems to be hinting
:11:14. > :11:15.at are sectoral arrangements, some kind of partial membership
:11:16. > :11:23.Switzerland, which has a far less wide-ranging deal than Norway,
:11:24. > :11:26.pays about 320 million a year for what it gets into the EU budget,
:11:27. > :11:29.but it's not exactly the Swiss deal that we're after.
:11:30. > :11:31.The EU institutions hate the Swiss deal because it is codified
:11:32. > :11:34.in a huge number of treaties that are messy, complicated
:11:35. > :11:36.and cumbersome, and they really don't want to replicate
:11:37. > :11:43.Theresa May has been at pains to insist she's in the driving seat
:11:44. > :11:45.when it comes to these negotiations, and that she's
:11:46. > :11:54.But with so much money up for discussion, it may not be such
:11:55. > :12:12.Sadly she didn't get to keep the car!
:12:13. > :12:14.And I've been joined to discuss the Brexit balance sheet
:12:15. > :12:17.by the director of the Centre for European Reform, Charles Grant,
:12:18. > :12:19.and by Henry Newman who runs the think tank Open Europe.
:12:20. > :12:27.Henry Newman, these figures that are being thrown about in Brussels at
:12:28. > :12:31.the moment, and exit bill of 40-60,000,000,000. What do you make
:12:32. > :12:34.of them? I think it is an opening gambit from the institutions and we
:12:35. > :12:40.should take them seriously. We listened to Mr Rogers, the former
:12:41. > :12:44.ambassador to Brussels in the House of Commons last week, speaking about
:12:45. > :12:48.the sort of positions the EU is likely to take in the negotiation. I
:12:49. > :12:52.personally think the Prime Minister should be more concerned about
:12:53. > :12:54.getting the right sort of trade arrangements, subsequent to our
:12:55. > :12:59.departure, than worrying about the exact detail of the divorce
:13:00. > :13:04.settlement and the Bill. They might not let them go on to trade until
:13:05. > :13:09.they resolve this matter. Where does the Brexit bill, the cost of exit,
:13:10. > :13:14.if there is to be one, in terms of a sum of money, where does that come
:13:15. > :13:18.in the negotiations, upfront or at the end? The European Commission has
:13:19. > :13:23.a firm line on this. You have to talk about the Brexit bill and the
:13:24. > :13:25.divorce settlement before you talk about the future relationship.
:13:26. > :13:29.Therefore they are saying if you don't sign up for 60 billion or
:13:30. > :13:33.thereabouts, we won't talk about the future. Other member states take a
:13:34. > :13:36.softer line than that and think you probably have to talk about the
:13:37. > :13:41.divorce settlement and Brexit bill as the same -- at the same time as
:13:42. > :13:46.the economic situation. If you can do both at the same time, the
:13:47. > :13:50.atmosphere may be better natured. You have spoken to people in
:13:51. > :13:57.Brussels and are part of a think tank, how Revista gives the figure
:13:58. > :14:01.or is it an opening gambit? Most member states and EU institutions
:14:02. > :14:04.believe they think it is the true figure but when the negotiations
:14:05. > :14:07.start adding the number will come down. As long as the British are
:14:08. > :14:13.prepared to sign up to the principle of we owe you a bit of money, as the
:14:14. > :14:18.cheque, then people will compromise. What is the ballpark? You had a
:14:19. > :14:22.figure of 34 billion, that is news to me, nobody knows because
:14:23. > :14:27.negotiations haven't started but I think something lower than 60. Even
:14:28. > :14:32.60 would be politically toxic for a British government? I think Theresa
:14:33. > :14:35.May is in a strong position, she has united the Conservative Party. You
:14:36. > :14:41.could expect coming into this year all the Conservative divisions would
:14:42. > :14:47.be laid bare by Gina Miller. But she is leading a united party. Labour
:14:48. > :14:52.Party are divided... Coogee get away with paying 30 billion? We should
:14:53. > :14:55.give her the benefit of the doubt going into these negotiations, let
:14:56. > :14:59.her keep her cards close to her chest. The speech he gave a few
:15:00. > :15:02.weeks ago at Lancaster House, our judgment was she laid out as much
:15:03. > :15:08.detail as we could have expected at that point. I don't think it's
:15:09. > :15:11.helpful for us now to say, we shouldn't be introducing further red
:15:12. > :15:16.line. I want you to be helpful and find things out. I would suggest if
:15:17. > :15:21.there is a bill, let's say it's 30 billion, let's make it half of what
:15:22. > :15:24.the current claims coming out of Brussels. And of course it won't
:15:25. > :15:28.have to be paid in one year, I assume it's not one cheque but
:15:29. > :15:32.spread over. But we will wait a long time for that 350 million a week or
:15:33. > :15:38.what ever it was that was meant to come from Brussels to spend on the
:15:39. > :15:44.NHS. That's not going to happen for the next five, six or seven years.
:15:45. > :15:49.Everyone has been clear there will be a phased exit programme. The
:15:50. > :15:53.question of whether something is political possible for her in terms
:15:54. > :15:56.of the divorce settlement will depend on what she gets from the
:15:57. > :16:01.European Union in those negotiations. If she ends up
:16:02. > :16:05.settling for a bill of about 30 billion which I think would be
:16:06. > :16:11.politically... No matter how popular she is, politically very difficult
:16:12. > :16:16.for her, it does kill any idea there is a Brexit dividend for Britain.
:16:17. > :16:20.Some of the senior officials in London and Brussels are worried this
:16:21. > :16:24.issue could crash the talks because it may be possible for Theresa May
:16:25. > :16:29.to accept a Brexit bill of 30 billion and if there is no deal and
:16:30. > :16:36.will leave EU without a settlement, there is massive legal uncertainty.
:16:37. > :16:38.What contract law applies? Can our planes take off from Heathrow?
:16:39. > :16:44.Nobody knows what legal rights there are for an EU citizen living here
:16:45. > :16:51.and vice versa. If there is no deal at the end of two years, it is quite
:16:52. > :16:55.bad for the European economy, therefore they think they have all
:16:56. > :16:59.the cards to play and they think if it is mishandled domestically in
:17:00. > :17:05.Britain than we have a crash. But there will be competing interests in
:17:06. > :17:08.Europe, the Baltic states, Eastern Europe, maybe quite similar of the
:17:09. > :17:13.Nordic states, that in turn different from the French, Germans
:17:14. > :17:19.or Italians. How will Europe come to a common view on these things? At
:17:20. > :17:26.the moment they are quite united backing a strong line, except for
:17:27. > :17:32.the polls and Hungarians who are the bad boys of Europe and the Irish who
:17:33. > :17:36.will do anything to keep us happy. We should remember their priority is
:17:37. > :17:41.not economics, they are not thinking how can they maximise trade with the
:17:42. > :17:45.UK, they are under threat. The combination of Trump and Brexit
:17:46. > :17:52.scares them. They want to keep the institutions strong. They also want
:17:53. > :17:57.to keep Britain. That is the one strong card we have, contributing to
:17:58. > :18:01.security. We know we won't be members of the single market, that
:18:02. > :18:07.was in the White Paper. The situation of the customs union is
:18:08. > :18:13.more complicated I would suggest. Does that have cost? If we can be a
:18:14. > :18:18.little bit pregnant in the customs union, does that come with a price
:18:19. > :18:23.ticket? We have got some clarity on the customs union, the Prime
:18:24. > :18:28.Minister said we would not be part of the... We would be able to do our
:18:29. > :18:32.own trade deals outside the EU customs union, and also not be part
:18:33. > :18:35.of the common external tariff. She said she is willing to look at other
:18:36. > :18:39.options and we don't know what that will be so as a think tank we are
:18:40. > :18:42.looking at this over the next few weeks and coming up with
:18:43. > :18:45.recommendations for the Government and looking at how existing
:18:46. > :18:50.boundaries between the EU customs union and other states work in
:18:51. > :18:54.practice. For example between Switzerland and the EU border,
:18:55. > :19:00.Norway and Switzerland, and the UK and Canada. We will want is a
:19:01. > :19:07.country the freedom to do our own free trade deals, that seems to be
:19:08. > :19:12.quite high up there, and to change our external tariffs to the rest of
:19:13. > :19:16.the world. If that's the case, we do seem to be wanting our cake and
:19:17. > :19:20.eating it in the customs union. Talking to some people in London, it
:19:21. > :19:26.is quite clear we are leaving the essentials of the customs union, the
:19:27. > :19:31.tariff, so even if we can minimise controls at the border by having
:19:32. > :19:34.mutual recognition agreements, so we recognise each other's standards,
:19:35. > :19:39.but there will still have to be checks for things like rules of
:19:40. > :19:42.origin and tariffs if tariffs apply, which is a problem for the Irish
:19:43. > :19:46.because nobody has worked out how you can avoid having some sort of
:19:47. > :19:49.customs control on the border between Northern Ireland and the
:19:50. > :19:53.South once we are out of the customs union. I think it's important we
:19:54. > :19:59.don't look at this too much as one side has to win and one side has to
:20:00. > :20:03.lose scenario. We can find ways. My Broadview is what we get out of the
:20:04. > :20:06.negotiation will depend on politics more than economic reality. Economic
:20:07. > :20:23.reality is strong, there's a good case for a trade deal on the
:20:24. > :20:26.solution on the customs deal, but Britain will need to come up with a
:20:27. > :20:29.positive case for our relationship and keep making that case. If it
:20:30. > :20:31.turns out the Government thinks the bill is too high, that we can't
:20:32. > :20:35.really get the free trade deal done in time and it's left hanging in the
:20:36. > :20:38.wind, what are the chances, how I as things stand now that we end up
:20:39. > :20:42.crashing out? I'd say there's a 30% chance that we don't get the free
:20:43. > :20:47.trade agreement at the end of it that Mrs May is aiming for. The very
:20:48. > :20:51.hard crash is you don't even do an Article 50 divorce settlement from
:20:52. > :20:56.you go straight to World Trade Organisation rules. The less hard
:20:57. > :21:00.crash is doing the divorce settlement and transitional
:21:01. > :21:05.arrangements would require European Court of Justice arrangements. We
:21:06. > :21:07.will leave it there. Thank you, both.
:21:08. > :21:09.Donald Trump's flagship policy of extreme vetting of immigrants
:21:10. > :21:11.and a temporary travel ban for citizens of seven mainly-muslim
:21:12. > :21:13.countries was stopped in its tracks this weekend.
:21:14. > :21:16.On Friday a judge ruled the ban should be lifted and that it
:21:17. > :21:21.That prompted President Trump to fire off a series of tweets
:21:22. > :21:24.criticising what he says was a terrible decision
:21:25. > :21:26.by a so-called judge, as he ordered the State Department
:21:27. > :21:34.Now the federal appeals court has rejected his request to reinstate
:21:35. > :21:45.the ban until it hears the case in full.
:21:46. > :21:50.Well yesterday I spoke to Sebastian Gorka, Deputy Assistant
:21:51. > :21:53.I asked him if the confusion over the travel ban
:21:54. > :21:55.was a sign that the President's two-week-old administration
:21:56. > :22:08.There is no chaos, you really shouldn't believe the spin, the
:22:09. > :22:14.facts speak for themselves. 109 people on Saturday were mildly
:22:15. > :22:20.inconvenienced by having their entry into the United States delayed out
:22:21. > :22:29.of 325,000. So let's not get carried away with the left-wing media bias
:22:30. > :22:33.and spin. Hold on, 60,000 - 90,000 people with visas, their visas are
:22:34. > :22:37.no longer valid. That's another issue. You need to listen to what
:22:38. > :22:44.I'm saying. The people who entered on the day of the executive order
:22:45. > :22:50.being implemented worth 109 people out of 325. Whether people won't
:22:51. > :22:59.travelling to America were affected is another matter, so there is no
:23:00. > :23:04.chaos to comment on. Following Iran's latest missile tests,
:23:05. > :23:10.National Security adviser Flint said the US was "Putting Iran on notice",
:23:11. > :23:13.what does that mean? It means we have a new president and we are not
:23:14. > :23:19.going to facilitate the rise of one of the most dangerous nations in the
:23:20. > :23:27.world. We are jettisoning this naive and dangerous policy of the Obama
:23:28. > :23:31.Administration to try and make the Shi'ite dictatorial democracy some
:23:32. > :23:35.kind of counter balance to extremist Sunni groups in the region and that
:23:36. > :23:39.they cannot continue to behave in the way they have behaved for the
:23:40. > :23:45.last 30 years. It is a very simple message. So are there any
:23:46. > :23:51.multilateral alliances that Mr Trump would like to strengthen?
:23:52. > :23:54.Absolutely. If we are looking at the region, if you listen to what
:23:55. > :24:00.President Trump has said and specifically to also the speeches of
:24:01. > :24:05.general Flint, his national security adviser, we are incredibly vested in
:24:06. > :24:11.seeing our Sunni allies in the region come together in a real
:24:12. > :24:17.coalition. The so-called vaunted 66 nation coalition that was created
:24:18. > :24:22.under the Obama administration... There was no coalition. But we want
:24:23. > :24:30.to help our Sunni allies, especially the Egyptians, the Jordanians, come
:24:31. > :24:36.together in a real partnership to take the fight to ISIS and groups
:24:37. > :24:41.like Al-Qaeda. But there is not a formal multilateral alliance with
:24:42. > :24:45.these countries. Which of the existing, formal multilateral
:24:46. > :24:49.alliances does Mr Trump wants to strengthen? If you are specifically
:24:50. > :24:54.talking about Nato, it is clear that we are committed to Nato but we wish
:24:55. > :24:58.to see a more equitable burden sharing among the nations that are
:24:59. > :25:02.simply not spending enough on their own defence so the gentleman 's
:25:03. > :25:06.agreement of 2% of GDP has to be stuck to, unlike the, I think it's
:25:07. > :25:11.only Six Nations that reach the standard today out of almost 30. So
:25:12. > :25:22.he does want to strengthen Nato then? Absolutely, he believes Nato
:25:23. > :25:28.is the most successful military alliances. You mustn't believe the
:25:29. > :25:32.spin and hype. EU leaders now see the Trump administration as a threat
:25:33. > :25:39.up there with Russia, China, terrorism. What's your response to
:25:40. > :25:45.that? I have to laugh. The idea that the nation that came to the
:25:46. > :25:51.salvation of Europe twice in the 20th century hummer in World War I
:25:52. > :26:03.and World War II, was central to the defeat of the totalitarian... It is
:26:04. > :26:07.not even worth commenting on. Would it matter to the Trump
:26:08. > :26:10.administration if the European Union broke up? The United States is very
:26:11. > :26:17.interested in the best relations possible with all the nations of the
:26:18. > :26:22.EU am a whether the European union wishes to stay together or not is up
:26:23. > :26:28.to the nations of the European Union. I understand that but I was
:26:29. > :26:33.wondering what the US view would be. Until Mr Trump, EU foreign policy
:26:34. > :26:37.was quite consistent in wanting to see the EU survive, prosper and even
:26:38. > :26:41.become more integrated. Now that doesn't seem to be the case, so
:26:42. > :26:46.would it matter to the Trump administration if the EU broke up? I
:26:47. > :26:49.will say yet again, it is in the interests of the United States to
:26:50. > :26:54.have the best relations possible with our European allies, and
:26:55. > :26:58.whether that is in the formation of the EU or if the EU by itself
:26:59. > :27:02.suffers some kind of internal issues, that's up to the European
:27:03. > :27:07.nations and not something we will comment on. Listening to that
:27:08. > :27:12.answer, it would seem as if this particular president's preference is
:27:13. > :27:17.to deal with individual nation states rather than multilateral
:27:18. > :27:24.institutions. Is that fair? I don't think so. There's never been an
:27:25. > :27:28.unequivocal statement by that effect by the statement. Does he share the
:27:29. > :27:33.opinion of Stephen Bannon that the 21st century should see a return to
:27:34. > :27:39.nation states rather than growing existing multilateral ways? I think
:27:40. > :27:42.it is fair to say that we have problems with political elites that
:27:43. > :27:48.don't take the interests of the populations they represent into
:27:49. > :27:54.account. That's why Brexit happened. I think that's why Mr Trump became
:27:55. > :27:58.President Trump. This is the connected phenomena. You are
:27:59. > :28:01.obsessing about institutions, it is not about institutions, it's about
:28:02. > :28:06.the health of democracy and whether political elites do what is in the
:28:07. > :28:09.interests of the people they represent. Given the
:28:10. > :28:12.unpredictability of the new president, you never really know
:28:13. > :28:17.what he's going to do next, would it be wise for the British Prime
:28:18. > :28:24.Minister to hitch her wagon to his star? This is really churlish
:28:25. > :28:28.questioning. Come on, you don't know what he's going to do next, listen
:28:29. > :28:33.to what he says because he does what he's going to say. I know this may
:28:34. > :28:37.be shocking to some reporters, but look at his campaign promises, and
:28:38. > :28:43.the fact that in the last 15 days we have executed every single one that
:28:44. > :28:48.we could in the time permissible so there is nothing unpredictable about
:28:49. > :28:54.Donald Trump as president. OK then, if we do know what he's going to do
:28:55. > :28:58.next, what is he going to do next? Continue to make good on his
:28:59. > :29:05.election promises, to make America great again, to make the economy are
:29:06. > :29:09.flourishing economy, and most important of all from your
:29:10. > :29:14.perspective in the UK, to be the best friend possible to our friends
:29:15. > :29:19.and the worst enemy to our enemies. It is an old Marine Corps phrase and
:29:20. > :29:27.we tend to live by it. Thank you for your time, we will leave it there.
:29:28. > :29:34.Doctor Gorka, making it clear this administration won't spend political
:29:35. > :29:35.capital on trying to keep the European Union together, a watershed
:29:36. > :29:38.change in American foreign policy. Theresa May has made a big deal out
:29:39. > :29:41.of her commitment to help people on middle incomes who are "just
:29:42. > :29:44.about managing", and early this week we should get a good sense
:29:45. > :29:47.of what that means in practice - when plans to bring down the cost
:29:48. > :29:50.of housing and protect renters are published in the Government's
:29:51. > :29:52.new white paper. The paper is expected to introduce
:29:53. > :29:54.new rules on building Communities Secretary Sajid Javid
:29:55. > :30:00.has previously said politicians should not stand in the way
:30:01. > :30:03.of development, provided all options Also rumoured are new measures
:30:04. > :30:07.to speed up building the 1 million new homes the Government promised
:30:08. > :30:09.to build by 2020, including imposing five-year quotas
:30:10. > :30:13.on reluctant councils. Reports suggest there will be
:30:14. > :30:15.relaxation of building height restrictions,
:30:16. > :30:17.allowing home owners and developers to build to the height
:30:18. > :30:20.of the tallest building on the block without needing to seek
:30:21. > :30:26.planning permission. Other elements trialled include
:30:27. > :30:30.new measures to stop developers sitting on parcels of land
:30:31. > :30:32.without building homes, land banking, and moving railway
:30:33. > :30:34.station car parks Underground, The Government today said it
:30:35. > :30:43.will amend planning rules so more homes can be built specifically
:30:44. > :30:46.to be rented out through longer term tenancies, to provide more stability
:30:47. > :30:47.for young families, alongside its proposed ban
:30:48. > :30:55.on letting agent fees. And the Housing Minister,
:30:56. > :31:04.Gavin Barwell, joins me now. Welcome to the programme. Home
:31:05. > :31:08.ownership is now beyond the reach of most young people. You are now
:31:09. > :31:12.emphasising affordable homes for rent. Why have you given up on the
:31:13. > :31:16.Tory dream of a property owning democracy? We haven't given up on
:31:17. > :31:21.that. The decline on home ownership in this country started in 2004. So
:31:22. > :31:24.far we have stopped that decline, we haven't reversed it but we
:31:25. > :31:29.absolutely want to make sure that people who want to own and can do
:31:30. > :31:32.so. The Prime Minister was very clear a country that works for
:31:33. > :31:36.everyone. That means we have to have say something to say to those who
:31:37. > :31:41.want to rent as well as on. Home ownership of young people is 35%,
:31:42. > :31:45.used to be 60%. Are you telling me during the lifetime of this
:31:46. > :31:50.government that is going to rise? We want to reverse the decline. We have
:31:51. > :31:54.stabilised it. The decline started in 2004 under Labour. They weren't
:31:55. > :31:58.bothered about it. We have taken action and that has stop the
:31:59. > :32:02.decline... What about the rise? We have to make sure people work hard
:32:03. > :32:06.the right thing have the chance to own their home on home. We have
:32:07. > :32:11.helped people through help to buy, shared ownership, that is part of
:32:12. > :32:14.it, but we have to have something to say to those who want to rent. You
:32:15. > :32:20.say you want more rented homes so why did you introduce a 3%
:32:21. > :32:24.additional stamp duty levied to pay those investing in build to rent
:32:25. > :32:28.properties? That was basically to try and stop a lot of the
:32:29. > :32:31.speculation in the buy to let market. The Bank of England raised
:32:32. > :32:37.concerns about that. When you see the white paper, you will see there
:32:38. > :32:43.is a package of measures for Bill to rent, trying to get institutional
:32:44. > :32:47.investment for that, different to people going and buying a home on
:32:48. > :32:52.the private market and renting out. You are trying to get institutional
:32:53. > :32:54.money to comment, just as this government and subsequent ones
:32:55. > :32:57.before said it would get pension fund money to invest in
:32:58. > :33:02.infrastructure and it never happened. Why should this happen? Is
:33:03. > :33:05.already starting to happen. If you go around the country you can see
:33:06. > :33:10.some of these builder rent scheme is happening. There are changes in the
:33:11. > :33:20.White Paper... How much money from institutions is going into bill to
:33:21. > :33:23.rent modular hundreds of millions. I was at the stock exchange the other
:33:24. > :33:26.day celebrating the launch of one of our bombs designed to get this money
:33:27. > :33:28.on. There are schemes being... There is huge potential to expand it. We
:33:29. > :33:31.need more homes and we are too dependent on a small number of large
:33:32. > :33:38.developers. -- to launch one of our bonds. You talk about affordable
:33:39. > :33:44.renting, what is affordable? Defined as something that is at least 20%
:33:45. > :33:48.below the market price. It will vary around the country. Let me put it
:33:49. > :33:53.another way. The average couple renting now have to spend 50% of
:33:54. > :33:56.their income on rent. Is that affordable? That is exactly what
:33:57. > :34:00.we're trying to do something about. Whether you're trying to buy or
:34:01. > :34:04.rent, housing in this country has become less and less affordable
:34:05. > :34:07.because the 30-40 years governments haven't built in times. This white
:34:08. > :34:11.Paper is trying to do something about that. You have been in power
:34:12. > :34:19.six, almost seven years. That's right. Why are ownership of new
:34:20. > :34:23.homes to 24 year low? It was a low figure because it's a new five-year
:34:24. > :34:27.programme. That is not a great excuse. It's not an excuse at all.
:34:28. > :34:30.The way these things work, you have a five-year programme and in the
:34:31. > :34:34.last year you have a record number of delivery and when you start a new
:34:35. > :34:38.programme, a lower level. If you look at the average over six years,
:34:39. > :34:43.this government has built more affordable housing than the previous
:34:44. > :34:50.one. Stiletto 24 year loss, that is an embarrassment. Yes. We have the
:34:51. > :34:53.figures, last year was 32,000, the year before 60 6000. You get this
:34:54. > :34:58.cliff edge effect. It is embarrassing and we want to stop it
:34:59. > :35:02.happening in the future. You want to give tenants more secure and longer
:35:03. > :35:09.leases which rent rises are predictable in advance. Ed Miliband
:35:10. > :35:13.promoted three-year tenancies in the 2015 general election campaign and
:35:14. > :35:18.George Osborne said it was totally economically illiterate. What's
:35:19. > :35:23.changed? You are merging control of the rents people in charge, which
:35:24. > :35:27.we're not imposing. We want longer term tenancies. Most people have
:35:28. > :35:32.six-month tenancies... Within that there would be a control on how much
:35:33. > :35:36.the rent could go up? Right? It would be set for the period of the
:35:37. > :35:40.tenancies. That's what I just said, that's what Ed Miliband proposed. Ed
:35:41. > :35:45.Miliband proposed regulating it for the whole sector. One of the reasons
:35:46. > :35:49.institutional investment is so attractive, if you had a spare home
:35:50. > :35:54.and you want to rent out, you might need it any year, so you give it a
:35:55. > :35:58.short tenancy. If you have a block, they are interested in a long-term
:35:59. > :36:05.return and give families more security. You have set a target,
:36:06. > :36:09.your government, to build in the life of this parliament 1 million
:36:10. > :36:16.new homes in England by 2020. You're not going to make that? I think we
:36:17. > :36:19.are. If you look at 2015-16 we had 190,000 additional homes of this
:36:20. > :36:28.country. Just below the level we need to achieve. Over five...
:36:29. > :36:34.2015-16. You were probably looking at the new homes built. Talking
:36:35. > :36:37.about completions in England. That is not the best measure, with
:36:38. > :36:43.respect. You said you will complete 1 million homes by 2020 so what is
:36:44. > :36:47.wrong with it? We use a national statistic which looks at new homes
:36:48. > :36:49.built and conversions and changes of use minus demolitions. The total
:36:50. > :36:56.change of the housing stock over that year. On that basis I have the
:36:57. > :37:00.figures here. I have the figures. You looking I just completed. 1
:37:01. > :37:05.million new homes, the average rate of those built in the last three
:37:06. > :37:10.quarters was 30 6000. You have 14 more quarters to get to the 1
:37:11. > :37:14.million. You have to raise that to 50 6000. I put it to you, you won't
:37:15. > :37:19.do it. You're not looking at the full picture of new housing in this
:37:20. > :37:23.country. You're looking at brand-new homes and not including conversions
:37:24. > :37:28.or changes of use are not taking off, which we should, demolitions.
:37:29. > :37:34.If you look at the National statistic net additions, in 2015-16,
:37:35. > :37:39.100 and 90,000 new homes. We are behind schedule. -- 190,000. I am
:37:40. > :37:43.confident with the measures in the White Paper we can achieve that. It
:37:44. > :37:47.is not just about the national total, we need to build these homes
:37:48. > :37:53.are the right places. Will the green belt remain sacrosanct after the
:37:54. > :37:56.white paper? Not proposing to change the existing protections that there
:37:57. > :38:01.for green belts. What planning policy says is councils can remove
:38:02. > :38:03.land from green belts but only in exceptional circumstances and should
:38:04. > :38:10.look at at all the circumstances before doing that. No change? No. We
:38:11. > :38:16.have a manifesto commitment. You still think you will get 1 million
:38:17. > :38:20.homes? The green belt is only 15%. This idea we can only fix our broken
:38:21. > :38:23.housing market by taking huge swathes of land out of the green
:38:24. > :38:26.belt is not true. We will leave it there, thank you for joining us,
:38:27. > :38:28.Gavin Barwell. It is coming up to 11.40.
:38:29. > :38:30.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now
:38:31. > :38:39.Coming up here in 20 minutes, the Week Ahead...
:38:40. > :38:43.Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics in Northern Ireland.
:38:44. > :38:45.Four weeks from now, we should know exactly who has
:38:46. > :38:49.won what in the latest Assembly election.
:38:50. > :38:51.In our first leaders' interview, I'll ask the Alliance Party's Naomi
:38:52. > :38:54.Long what makes this trip to the polls different.
:38:55. > :38:57.Will Leitch has been talking to some of the less well-known
:38:58. > :39:06.I've been looking at how you go about winning a seat for the
:39:07. > :39:08.smallest parties, in the big house. And giving the wisdom
:39:09. > :39:11.of their insight on all things political are Rick Wilford
:39:12. > :39:16.and Patricia MacBride. We're well into the election
:39:17. > :39:20.campaign - doors are being knocked, babies are being kissed -
:39:21. > :39:22.so it's time to start our series of interviews
:39:23. > :39:25.with the party leaders. Today I'm joined by the Alliance
:39:26. > :39:28.Party's Naomi Long, who is, of course, fighting her first
:39:29. > :39:34.election as the woman in charge. Power-sharing has tripped
:39:35. > :39:39.on its laces again, the place is echoing to the cries of people
:39:40. > :39:41.saying they're fed up with the same old same old -
:39:42. > :39:44.if the Alliance Party can't make major strides in this election,
:39:45. > :39:55.it's time to pack up Well, I think that is a very gloomy
:39:56. > :40:00.outlook to have. First of all, Alliance has been growing very
:40:01. > :40:06.strongly in terms of our membership. We are recruiting about a dozen
:40:07. > :40:10.people a day, probably making us one of the fastest-growing parties in
:40:11. > :40:13.Northern Ireland. We are also having people coming forward from
:40:14. > :40:17.constituencies where we previously had quite weak membership. When I
:40:18. > :40:21.took over as leader I said I wanted to strengthen the areas where we
:40:22. > :40:26.already have elected representation, and reach out beyond that poor. I
:40:27. > :40:30.hoped that I would have until the council elections in 2019 to be able
:40:31. > :40:36.to prove whether that strategy is working. I feel quite good about it,
:40:37. > :40:40.because it is an opportunity to show that we are quite serious about that
:40:41. > :40:45.average. There will have been people in places like Omar in Cookstown,
:40:46. > :40:52.and Ballycastle who will have had the those not by a Alliance who will
:40:53. > :41:05.not have done for a long time. -- Omagh. But you need to be making
:41:06. > :41:09.inroads West of the ban if you are to be considered as a serious
:41:10. > :41:14.political force. And I've just described how we're doing that. We
:41:15. > :41:17.are running candidates from those constituencies who have good
:41:18. > :41:21.background in terms of being able for example, having worked in
:41:22. > :41:27.education and health and so on, who are coming to the party now... But
:41:28. > :41:32.are they going to win seats? You are telling me you are going to grow,
:41:33. > :41:37.but it is a time of shrinkage. That's a tall order. It may be a
:41:38. > :41:41.time of shrinkage as far as the Assembly is concerned, but it is a
:41:42. > :41:45.time of growth for our lives. We are seeing new people come forward as
:41:46. > :41:52.candidates who are keen to stand. How many seats are you aiming for? I
:41:53. > :41:58.never do that, because as soon as I give you a number, you will say I am
:41:59. > :42:02.writing of the rest of the seats. I am ambitious for Northern Ireland.
:42:03. > :42:09.Well, then, you should be able to see what your target is. We are
:42:10. > :42:16.running 21 candidates... You are not going to win 21 seats. Do you think
:42:17. > :42:20.you seriously might? Remember, elections are not cumulative. What
:42:21. > :42:25.happened at the last election counts for nothing. We all go to the ballot
:42:26. > :42:29.box on the same basis, and if people come out and vote Alliance, they
:42:30. > :42:33.will get Alliance. I think it is far too easy for people to write parties
:42:34. > :42:37.of based on previous performance. If we want to look at previous
:42:38. > :42:42.performance, let's look at what the parties have delivered a vote on
:42:43. > :42:46.that basis. If you held onto the eight seats you currently have, most
:42:47. > :42:53.commentators would say you had done pretty well. I hope they do. So
:42:54. > :42:58.eight is realistic? I said I hoped people aren't that gracious if we
:42:59. > :43:03.held our eight seats. So realistically, aid is quite a big
:43:04. > :43:07.ask, in the circumstances. If you look at the previous election, Mark,
:43:08. > :43:13.on the basis of our votes in the previous election we would have held
:43:14. > :43:16.eight in a 90 seat Assembly. Now, a lot has happened since the last
:43:17. > :43:22.election, in terms of the fact we are back in another one and eight
:43:23. > :43:28.months. In terms actually of those failures being around issues that we
:43:29. > :43:30.highlighted. The petition of concern, continued paramilitaries in
:43:31. > :43:37.our communities. Those are the issues when we were asked to join
:43:38. > :43:40.the expected that made us say no. The public now have an opportunity
:43:41. > :43:44.to set that right, by electing people who are standing by things
:43:45. > :43:48.that will make the Executive work better, because ultimately I am not
:43:49. > :43:52.running 21 candidates as a protest vote, I'm running them with a
:43:53. > :43:57.positive and construction agenda for Northern Ireland that will actually
:43:58. > :44:03.deliver post election. How do you shake of the allegations that the
:44:04. > :44:07.party is middle-of-the-road and out of touch? If you are bred to make
:44:08. > :44:13.the breakthrough you hope to make, you have got nailed that. I am
:44:14. > :44:19.laughing because the idea that I am inherently middle-class is
:44:20. > :44:25.somewhat... Are you going to tell the UI not? We have people in our
:44:26. > :44:30.party from all walks of life. If anybody looks, we have one of the
:44:31. > :44:34.most diverse tickets in terms of gender, sexual orientation,
:44:35. > :44:39.disability, all of those things, and in terms of where people work and
:44:40. > :44:43.their social class. Inclusion is not just something we talk about, it is
:44:44. > :44:48.something we do, and that is what we are focused on. I actually think
:44:49. > :44:51.anyone who sees as that way is looking at very old stereotypes. Has
:44:52. > :45:01.it changed? Listen to this. Vasundhara Kamble comments on class
:45:02. > :45:04.- listen to this: Alliance They are only friendly
:45:05. > :45:08.to professional people with a certain educational
:45:09. > :45:10.and financial background, people Someone who was a member
:45:11. > :45:20.of your party until ten days ago! And who only three or four days
:45:21. > :45:24.before that sought to seek election as an MLA and was not selected. I
:45:25. > :45:30.understand people are disappointed when they don't get selected. But
:45:31. > :45:34.the question is, why would somebody who thought that was what Alliance
:45:35. > :45:41.was like one to stand? When she became a counsellor, she was
:45:42. > :45:48.selected for a seat against a young, white male solicitor. So the idea
:45:49. > :45:57.that in any way there was prejudiced against her in the party is an
:45:58. > :46:03.absolute, provable nonsense. You need to be very careful not to
:46:04. > :46:08.dismiss this out of hand? I haven't, I am aware of the situation that has
:46:09. > :46:14.taken place. So you were asleep at the wheel. Absolutely not. You
:46:15. > :46:17.should have known about this and dealt with it so it didn't get to
:46:18. > :46:23.the point that it got to. I did, I was dealing with it. We had issued
:46:24. > :46:29.disciplinary proceedings against the two councillors who had left. They
:46:30. > :46:33.admitted they had not raised an issue with me, we were aware of the
:46:34. > :46:38.problems that existed within that council group. David Ford when he
:46:39. > :46:41.was leader was dealing with that as have I been since, but they were not
:46:42. > :46:48.to do with the allegations that emerged after those councils left.
:46:49. > :46:51.So I did not dismiss it. I wrote to them and asked them to provide me
:46:52. > :46:57.with any substantive evidence that will back up those claims. Charges
:46:58. > :47:01.of ageism and racism, and middle-class snobbery at a time when
:47:02. > :47:05.you are trying to say that aligns its two breakthrough and move away
:47:06. > :47:10.from those things is potentially very damaging to you. -- the
:47:11. > :47:13.Alliance Party. Only if people look at it from the perspective of saying
:47:14. > :47:21.they are right and we are lying. We've already had quite a large
:47:22. > :47:28.article the day after in the paper saying that she did not buy the
:47:29. > :47:31.argument. It was her constituency up and only eight months ago, so she
:47:32. > :47:35.would be fairly familiar with both councillors. If you look at the age
:47:36. > :47:42.range, we were criticised in the last election, for having the oldest
:47:43. > :47:46.average age of Assembly candidate going into the elections. That was a
:47:47. > :47:51.criticism of Alliance at that time, and now we are a just? We have
:47:52. > :47:57.people on the ticket of all different ages, some of the youngest
:47:58. > :48:00.and some of the oldest. He is the difficulty. You clearly have pulling
:48:01. > :48:06.power in terms of votes, and you've done well in your constituency. Not
:48:07. > :48:09.least when you won it for Westminster in 2010. But when people
:48:10. > :48:16.go to the polling booths, they are looking at named candidates, and you
:48:17. > :48:21.are running 21, frankly many of whom they will not know, and they do not
:48:22. > :48:28.get a chance to vote for Naomi Long. That is a problem. If the party is
:48:29. > :48:33.in your image, but can also cause difficulties in places for example
:48:34. > :48:38.west of the band. Alliance is not a cult, it is a Democratic party. I am
:48:39. > :48:43.not the big cog in the machine here. I am the party leader, but it is a
:48:44. > :48:49.Democratic Party, I represent the rules -- views of the membership of
:48:50. > :48:52.the party. If I was in some way a negative in terms of drawing people
:48:53. > :48:56.into the party, we would not be recruiting at the rate we are. And
:48:57. > :49:01.those candidates coming forward, for the first time in a long time, I
:49:02. > :49:07.grounded in those constituencies. We had a contest for who would run in
:49:08. > :49:12.upper band, we haven't had that situation for a long time. Similarly
:49:13. > :49:16.for mid-Ulster. I think that is positive, but we are running people
:49:17. > :49:20.who grew up and lived in those constituencies, who know the area
:49:21. > :49:25.well, who can represent us. If people choose to vote for Alliance,
:49:26. > :49:28.are they voting for your party to go into opposition, or a Government?
:49:29. > :49:35.They are voting for us to stand on our manifesto and the five pledges
:49:36. > :49:40.we gave on the last occasion we went to the electorate. We stand over the
:49:41. > :49:45.decision we made back in May... We will make the same judgment. But
:49:46. > :49:49.what I would hope is that eight months of failure at the Executive
:49:50. > :49:54.Papal may have tempered people's views enough, that they realise that
:49:55. > :49:58.have a mandate is all well and good, but if you cannot exercise that
:49:59. > :50:04.incorporation with other parties in the Assembly, your mandate is
:50:05. > :50:10.worthless. Arlene Foster learnt that the hardware and lost her job. I
:50:11. > :50:13.have found it quite a constructive place to be, because there have been
:50:14. > :50:16.occasions when we have believed the Government is right, and there have
:50:17. > :50:20.been times when we have found they are wrong. And you were powerless to
:50:21. > :50:24.do anything about it when it fell apart. We were actually challenging
:50:25. > :50:27.Government about the issues that mattered, and I was the person who
:50:28. > :50:31.first called for a public inquiry, and there we have one, from parties
:50:32. > :50:34.have both said there would never be won. So I feel anything but
:50:35. > :50:38.powerless when it comes to the Assembly.
:50:39. > :50:41.Let's hear from my guests of the day, Patricia MacBride
:50:42. > :50:44.Rick, Naomi Long making her case there, so could this
:50:45. > :50:47.be the breakthrough election for Alliance?
:50:48. > :50:52.It could be. It depends on the extent to which the electorate takes
:50:53. > :50:56.a rational view of actually what's happened over the last eight months
:50:57. > :51:03.rather than they are climbing into the same old trench or trenches as
:51:04. > :51:07.before. A dispassionate and more objective approach to the election,
:51:08. > :51:10.weighing up the experience of the last eight months, and the kinds of
:51:11. > :51:15.alternatives being offered, gives our lines and indeed many of the
:51:16. > :51:20.smaller parties an opportunity, if there ever was an open goal at an
:51:21. > :51:23.election for the opposition parties, whether unofficial or official
:51:24. > :51:28.opposition, there is it, because there has been such a debacle over
:51:29. > :51:31.our age are. But then those parties have to demonstrate that they have
:51:32. > :51:36.got an alternative. What might help is that -- if the parties came up
:51:37. > :51:40.with a joint platform which they would agree to negotiate once the
:51:41. > :51:52.talks begin in the wake of the election.
:51:53. > :51:59.Patricia, could there be a new political mood in the country? It's
:52:00. > :52:02.going to be an interesting election, because you can only predict so much
:52:03. > :52:10.based on predicted -- percentage vote shares. The biggest challenge I
:52:11. > :52:14.think, going into the selection, is for Alliance and the other parties,
:52:15. > :52:19.and it is, are you fighting the selection on the basis of going into
:52:20. > :52:23.Government, or opposition? No party should be fighting on the basis of
:52:24. > :52:29.going into opposition, and I think Naomi's comments in her interview
:52:30. > :52:39.regarding holding the Executive to account in terms of issues around
:52:40. > :52:46.RHI and other things, there is a signal we might see Alliance coming
:52:47. > :52:49.out of opposition. There was a fairly widespread support for David
:52:50. > :52:55.Ford as Justice minister, there was the feeling he had done a good job
:52:56. > :52:58.in that role. If there is a situation there where we are forming
:52:59. > :53:02.a new Executive, the question for Alliance that should be on the
:53:03. > :53:07.doorsteps is, are you going to come out of opposition, take that Justice
:53:08. > :53:12.Minister's post in order to save the institutions? That is a big
:53:13. > :53:17.challenge, Rik. We got that position almost by default. We had to invent
:53:18. > :53:23.a procedure to enable that to happen, in effect. If Clare Sugden
:53:24. > :53:28.gets re-elected, maybe the offer will be open to her, but she wasn't
:53:29. > :53:33.the first choice. So it is a big ask for Alliance whether they will do it
:53:34. > :53:37.this time. Ford did do a reasonable job. We don't know who his successor
:53:38. > :53:44.might be, but it is an opportunity for Alliance, for sure.
:53:45. > :53:47.Thank you both - and we'll hear more from you later.
:53:48. > :53:50.Once upon a time, the Alliance Party was the new kid on the block.
:53:51. > :53:53.But there are still several smaller parties -
:53:54. > :53:56.some new, some old - trying to find a way into Stormont.
:53:57. > :53:58.Will Leitch has been looking at the runners and riders.
:53:59. > :54:01.It is less than three weeks since this snap election became a
:54:02. > :54:04.certainty, but something else was certain months earlier. No matter
:54:05. > :54:10.whom the voters choose, from now on there will be 18 fewer MLAs in the
:54:11. > :54:14.Assembly, that's 90 seats instead of 108. Amateur 5 cents per
:54:15. > :54:18.constituency instead of six, how hard is it going to be to win one?
:54:19. > :54:22.It is something the smallest parties are bound to have been thinking
:54:23. > :54:24.about. For political loyalism, that means
:54:25. > :54:31.courting votes previously cast on traditional lines.
:54:32. > :54:35.Stormont is a shambles. It is essentially politics is broken. It
:54:36. > :54:39.is not working, and if we want to fix it, there is no point in doing
:54:40. > :54:44.what we have always done. Will you to do things differently to sort out
:54:45. > :54:49.the chaos that is there. So we need new ideas, a new approach, and we
:54:50. > :54:54.need new people, to bring about change to bring it back on track.
:54:55. > :54:59.That would mean sorting out dash for cash, for a start. But the smaller
:55:00. > :55:05.parties say that is not the only issue. They talk about honesty in
:55:06. > :55:10.politics, and they cannot get an honest answer for many of their
:55:11. > :55:14.questions. People are telling us, health, housing, education, jobs,
:55:15. > :55:19.the environment, and their future. That is what they want to know
:55:20. > :55:23.about. The Conservatives have yet to win an Assembly seat here, and are
:55:24. > :55:28.looking to their strengths in Great Britain. This is an undeserved
:55:29. > :55:31.election, and the parties in Northern Ireland have turned back to
:55:32. > :55:40.form and type. So our message is we over 300 MPs, 800 odd thousand --
:55:41. > :55:45.800,000 odd counsellors, and we want to represent Northern Ireland. Other
:55:46. > :55:47.parties are hoping to represent for the first time this time around.
:55:48. > :55:50.Will Leitch reporting - and he'll be back shortly to look
:55:51. > :55:52.at another three of the smaller parties aiming for Assembly seats.
:55:53. > :55:55.Now, with a look at the political week in 60 seconds,
:55:56. > :56:09.Brexit dominated all four corners of the UK this week. And the Republic
:56:10. > :56:14.of Ireland as well. Any manifestation of a hard border would
:56:15. > :56:18.have very negative comes -- consequences. An explicit objective
:56:19. > :56:23.of the UK Government's work on Brexit is to ensure that full
:56:24. > :56:26.account is taken of the particular circumstances of Northern Ireland.
:56:27. > :56:30.The Secretary of State's appearance at a football match was pushed out
:56:31. > :56:34.of the headlines after he weighed on to the controversy over whether
:56:35. > :56:39.former soldiers are being unfairly targeted for Troubles related
:56:40. > :56:45.prosecution. We think we are carrying out our duties according to
:56:46. > :56:51.the law. And fears over what will happen, if a budget cannot be agreed
:56:52. > :56:56.after the election. I think the politicians have got to realise this
:56:57. > :56:58.cannot be left alone. Civil servants cannot be left in charge of the
:56:59. > :56:59.budget, alone. We'll hear more from Rick
:57:00. > :57:07.and Patricia shortly - but first here's Will Leitch again,
:57:08. > :57:21.with the remainder of the smaller For the smallest parties, this
:57:22. > :57:26.election brings new challenges, not least the fewer seats up for grabs.
:57:27. > :57:31.That may mean persuading voters to use a different strategy on the
:57:32. > :57:34.ballot paper. Those rules are going to directly affect us, it will be
:57:35. > :57:38.harder for smaller parties to get in, so we need the public to realise
:57:39. > :57:41.that if they go to the ballot box and put down the same votes that
:57:42. > :57:45.they have always done, they are going to get the same results they
:57:46. > :57:50.have always got, and we need change, we need a socialist alternative, and
:57:51. > :57:54.that is what our party will offer the public. There is a strong sense
:57:55. > :57:59.that although the selection came out of nowhere, the dynamics do not have
:58:00. > :58:04.to be the same as last time. For years and years, politicians have
:58:05. > :58:08.told us there is no money for public services, for jobs and services, and
:58:09. > :58:15.now for teachers to have a pay rise. Now this has been completely
:58:16. > :58:21.exposed, there is money, being transferred to private companies.
:58:22. > :58:25.One party previously focused on legalising cannabis has now decided
:58:26. > :58:29.to try and broaden its appeal. We don't see the point on focusing our
:58:30. > :58:34.energies on that now. We are going to use evidence-based practice, what
:58:35. > :58:39.happens in other parts of the world, and seeing how it can work for us
:58:40. > :58:44.here. We are applying that two issues that the other parties are
:58:45. > :58:49.not certain about. Simple, basic things that are not getting touched
:58:50. > :58:52.because of other petty fights between the parties. It still is not
:58:53. > :58:56.clear how many targets -- candidates from the small parties will stand.
:58:57. > :58:57.Nominations are open for another three days.
:58:58. > :59:05.And back to our commentators for a final thought.
:59:06. > :59:07.Patricia, do these smaller parties stand any real chance of grabbing
:59:08. > :59:16.They are fighting for just 90 seats. There are certainly going to be
:59:17. > :59:25.challenges in getting any sort of decent food. You are looking at
:59:26. > :59:30.independence, even people before profit, -- DUP -- PUP. So for the
:59:31. > :59:36.smaller parties to get in and sweep up smaller votes is going to be a
:59:37. > :59:40.challenge. The Alliance Party is doing something they have never done
:59:41. > :59:44.before in terms of managing their vote, trying to get second and third
:59:45. > :59:50.preferences. That is good to hurt the smaller parties in this run as
:59:51. > :59:54.well. I think elections always springs surprises, but I think if
:59:55. > :59:59.the smaller parties make any impression, they are all part of
:00:00. > :00:03.election contests, and it is all very welcome because one hears
:00:04. > :00:13.different voices, but I think now that parties have to get 16.5% to
:00:14. > :00:14.get elected, I think it is doubly difficult for the small parties who
:00:15. > :00:24.are trying to make an impact. Away from the election,
:00:25. > :00:26.Gerry Adams has said he will go to the White House
:00:27. > :00:34.on St Patrick's Day to meet After last year we have to ask, will
:00:35. > :00:38.he be allowed in? I think it is the appropriate thing to do if an
:00:39. > :00:43.invitation is issued, but I wouldn't suggest Donald Trump's interest in
:00:44. > :00:45.Ireland is anywhere near the same level as previous American
:00:46. > :00:49.administrations. That was illustrated if you look at the
:00:50. > :00:53.issues around Black history month and his statements there, which were
:00:54. > :00:58.very short and not at all focused on the issue. I would expect Donald
:00:59. > :01:02.Trump's White House statements to be any more detailed on Irish issues.
:01:03. > :01:06.The Vice President claims Irish ancestry, so he should be more
:01:07. > :01:09.interested, but do you imagine that most of the parties will want to be
:01:10. > :01:16.in Washington in some shape or form in March? I think it is --
:01:17. > :01:20.detestable though Donald Trump is, real politics dictates that if you
:01:21. > :01:25.are invited, you go. Donald Trump might know where the odd golf course
:01:26. > :01:28.in all it is, but I doubt he knows except they were Northern Ireland
:01:29. > :01:30.is, but George Bush didn't either. But we made some progress on his
:01:31. > :01:36.watch. programme at another time an airport
:01:37. > :01:37.expansion, but thank you to both of you for being here. Back to you,
:01:38. > :01:43.Andrew. Will the Government's plan
:01:44. > :01:46.to boost house-building Could a handful of Conservative
:01:47. > :01:49.MPs cause problems for And what is President
:01:50. > :02:08.Trump going to do next? You have been following the genesis
:02:09. > :02:13.of this housing white paper. What do you make of it? I think it will be
:02:14. > :02:19.quite spectacular, pretty radical stuff. We heard bits about beating
:02:20. > :02:22.up on developers. I understand it will be a whack, walk, covering
:02:23. > :02:28.every single problem with housing supply and trying to solve it. Which
:02:29. > :02:31.means bad news if you are a huge fan of the green belt, because they will
:02:32. > :02:35.go round that the other way by forcing large quotas on councils are
:02:36. > :02:41.making it down to councils where they build. If you fill up your
:02:42. > :02:44.brown space in towns they will have to trigger the exceptional
:02:45. > :02:47.circumstances bit of the bill to beat on green belts. Beating up
:02:48. > :02:52.developers, opening up the market for renters across the board. And
:02:53. > :02:57.Theresa May, one of the most defining thing she could do on the
:02:58. > :03:02.domestic agenda. I am not as excited as Tom about this. I look back to
:03:03. > :03:08.2004, do you remember the Kate Barker report? Successive
:03:09. > :03:15.governments, successive prime ministers have been promising to
:03:16. > :03:18.address the housing shortage. In 2004 Kate Barker recommended
:03:19. > :03:23.hundreds of thousands new homes. Gordon Brown talked about 3 million
:03:24. > :03:28.new homes by 2020 in 2007. It never happens. The reason is at the end of
:03:29. > :03:31.the day this is local politics, local councillors need to keep their
:03:32. > :03:33.seats and they won't keep their seats if there are hugely
:03:34. > :03:38.controversial developments locally that they support. Yes, the
:03:39. > :03:43.government can and are proposing to overrule councils that don't back
:03:44. > :03:47.local developments, but they may find themselves completely inundated
:03:48. > :03:52.with those cases. I think that is the whole point of it, to take on
:03:53. > :04:00.those NIMBY often Tory councils and force them to build. I can't think
:04:01. > :04:04.of a better defining issue for Theresa May than sticking one in the
:04:05. > :04:10.eye of some quite well off half Tory countryside councils. The government
:04:11. > :04:14.gives councils a quota of homes they have to fill, if they don't have to
:04:15. > :04:18.fill that all run out overland to fill the quota, the government then
:04:19. > :04:22.comes in and tells them they have to built on the green belt? How is that
:04:23. > :04:25.going to work? At the moment the green belt is absolutely sacrosanct
:04:26. > :04:32.in British politics. They'll have to do some work on educating people on
:04:33. > :04:37.what green belts means. Potato farms, golf courses... At the moment
:04:38. > :04:42.the idea people have of the green belt being verdant fields needs to
:04:43. > :04:46.be dismantled. You are right. I agree with Tom, 11 million people in
:04:47. > :04:49.the private rental sector in the UK. In the last election more voted
:04:50. > :04:54.Labour than conservative. This is an area where Theresa May would look to
:04:55. > :04:57.expand her vote. The problem has always been, the same problem we
:04:58. > :05:02.have with pension policy and why pensioners have done better than
:05:03. > :05:07.working families in recent years. They are older and they vote more
:05:08. > :05:15.and anything to the detriment of older people. I wonder how they will
:05:16. > :05:18.get private money to come in on anything like this go they would
:05:19. > :05:23.need to have a huge expansion? There is a huge amount of speculation and
:05:24. > :05:27.one of the thing that locks up the system as you have people buying
:05:28. > :05:31.land, taking out a stake of land in the hope that one point it may at
:05:32. > :05:36.some point free up. At the end of the day, unless you have councils
:05:37. > :05:39.far more willing to quickly fast track these applications, which they
:05:40. > :05:45.won't for the reason I said before, it's a very long-term investment. Ed
:05:46. > :05:50.Miliband proposed three-year leases in which the rent could only go up
:05:51. > :05:54.by an agreed formula, probably the three years to give the young
:05:55. > :05:59.families a certain stability over that period. He had a use it or lose
:06:00. > :06:03.it rules for planning development, if you don't use it you lose the
:06:04. > :06:08.planning rights. Somebody else gets it. The Tories disparaged that at
:06:09. > :06:13.the time. This is at the centre of their policy now.
:06:14. > :06:16.This is probably item number four of Ed Miliband's policy book Theresa
:06:17. > :06:21.May has wholesale pinched in the last six months or so. Why not? I
:06:22. > :06:26.think if you look at the change in mood across housing and planning
:06:27. > :06:31.over the last 5-6 years, it used to be an issue very much of green belt
:06:32. > :06:34.versus London planners. Now you have grandparents living in houses in the
:06:35. > :06:37.countryside, knowing their grandchildren can't get on the
:06:38. > :06:42.housing ladder any longer. Maybe a bit more intervention in the market,
:06:43. > :06:45.tougher on renting conditions, maybe that is exactly what the country
:06:46. > :06:51.needs. Will they meet the 1 million target? It would be a defiance of
:06:52. > :06:57.every political thing that has happened in the last ten years. I
:06:58. > :06:59.think Tom is right, if there is only one difference between Theresa May
:07:00. > :07:04.and David Cameron it's the willingness of the state to
:07:05. > :07:09.intervene. When Ed Miliband said that he was seen as communism, but
:07:10. > :07:16.Theresa May can get away with it. How serious is this talk of a couple
:07:17. > :07:22.of dozen Tories who were very loyal over voting for the principle of
:07:23. > :07:25.Article 50 but may now be tempted to vote for some amendments to Article
:07:26. > :07:30.50 legislation that they would find quite attractive? I think that
:07:31. > :07:36.threat has certainly been taken seriously by levers. I spoke to the
:07:37. > :07:40.campaign group Leaves Means Leave last night. The figure they
:07:41. > :07:43.mentioned was up to 20 remaining Tories. That sounds a lot to me but
:07:44. > :07:48.that is what they are concerned about and those Tories would come
:07:49. > :07:53.together with Labour and the SNP to vote for that amendment. Although
:07:54. > :07:57.that amendment sounds rather nice and democratic, actually in the eyes
:07:58. > :08:01.of many levers that is a wrecking amendment. Because what you are
:08:02. > :08:05.doing is giving Parliament a sort of veto over whatever deal Theresa May
:08:06. > :08:09.brings back. What they want is the vote to be before that deal is
:08:10. > :08:14.finalised. It isn't necessarily the case that if Parliament decided they
:08:15. > :08:18.didn't like that deal we would just go to WTO, we would fall out of the
:08:19. > :08:24.European Union. There are mixed views as to whether we might remain
:08:25. > :08:28.in and things could be extended. My understanding is the people making
:08:29. > :08:33.the amendments, they won any deal that is done to be brought to
:08:34. > :08:39.Parliament in time, so that if Parliament fancies it it's done, but
:08:40. > :08:42.if it does and it doesn't just mean go to WTO rules. There will be time
:08:43. > :08:47.to go back, renegotiate or think again? The question is where it puts
:08:48. > :08:55.Britain's negotiating hand. Nine of the options... Once we trigger
:08:56. > :08:58.Article 50 the two negotiation begins on the power switches to
:08:59. > :09:02.Europe. They can run out the clock and it will be worse for us than
:09:03. > :09:06.them. I don't think either option is particularly appealing. I think what
:09:07. > :09:10.seems like a rather Serena week for Article 50 this week isn't going to
:09:11. > :09:14.be reflective of what will happen next. The way the government's
:09:15. > :09:19.position is at the moment, if at the end the only choice Parliament has
:09:20. > :09:22.is to vote for the deal or crash out on WTO rules, then even the
:09:23. > :09:26.remainder is going to vote for the deal even if they don't like it,
:09:27. > :09:32.because they would regard crashing out as the worst of all possible
:09:33. > :09:37.results. Possibly. It will be a great game of bluff if Theresa May
:09:38. > :09:39.fights off any of these amendments on Wednesday and gets a
:09:40. > :09:43.straightforward deal or no Deal vote. I have a funny feeling this
:09:44. > :09:46.amendment, if it's chosen, we must remember because we don't know if
:09:47. > :09:53.they will choose this amendment, if it does go to a vote on Wednesday it
:09:54. > :09:55.will be very tight indeed. Remember, one final thing Theresa May can do
:09:56. > :10:02.if she gets Parliament voting against, as Isabel would have it,
:10:03. > :10:05.she could try to get a new parliament and go for a general
:10:06. > :10:11.election. And probably get a huge majority to do so. The Lords, it
:10:12. > :10:22.goes there after the February recess. They are very pro-Europe,
:10:23. > :10:27.but does their instinct for self-preservation override that? I
:10:28. > :10:30.think that is it. A Tory Lord said this morning I will vote to block it
:10:31. > :10:36.on a conscience measure, but you have the likes of Bill Cash, veteran
:10:37. > :10:40.Eurosceptics, suddenly converted to the Lords reform saying is an
:10:41. > :10:43.outrage. I doubt they will vote for their own demise, to hasten their
:10:44. > :10:51.own demise by blocking it. What did you make of Doctor Gorka smart
:10:52. > :10:55.fascinating. Cut from the same cloth as his boss. I thought it was
:10:56. > :10:58.extraordinary listening to him, saying everything is going dutifully
:10:59. > :11:03.to plan. But at the end of the day, what they are doing is what people
:11:04. > :11:07.in America voted for Trump to do. If you look at Lord Ashcroft's polling
:11:08. > :11:11.on why America voted for Trump, they went into this with their eyes wide
:11:12. > :11:17.open. One of the top fears among American voters, particularly
:11:18. > :11:19.Republican leading ones was America's immigration policy is or
:11:20. > :11:24.could be letting in terror arrests. As far as he is concerned, he is
:11:25. > :11:28.doing what he was elected to do. This whole year is turning into a
:11:29. > :11:31.wonderful year long lecture series on how democracy works at a
:11:32. > :11:34.fundamental level. I'm not sure anyone wanted it but it's what we've
:11:35. > :11:40.got. This same in the way we've been talking about direct democracy and
:11:41. > :11:44.Parliamentary democracy. The same is happening in America between
:11:45. > :11:48.executive and judicial branches. We are seeing the limits of
:11:49. > :11:52.presidential power. Regardless of the fact that people voted for Trump
:11:53. > :11:58.they voted for senators. The judge who blocks this was appointed by
:11:59. > :12:02.George W Bush. So-called Judge Eckert Mac so-called George W Bush!
:12:03. > :12:06.It's fascinating we're having all these conversations now that I never
:12:07. > :12:10.bought five years ago we would be having at such a fundamental level.
:12:11. > :12:15.Has the media yet worked out how to cover the Trump administration or
:12:16. > :12:20.has he got us behaving like headless chickens? He says something
:12:21. > :12:25.incendiary and we all run over to do that and when you pick it off it
:12:26. > :12:28.turns out not to be as incendiary as we thought? And then back doing
:12:29. > :12:34.something and we all rush over there. Is he making fools of us? Is
:12:35. > :12:39.exactly what he did in the election campaign. So many quick and fast
:12:40. > :12:42.outrageous comments frontrunner on a daily basis, no one single one of
:12:43. > :12:46.them had full news cycle time to be pored over and examined. I think
:12:47. > :12:51.there is a problem with this. Although he keeps the upper hand,
:12:52. > :12:56.keeps the agenda and keeps on the populist ground, the problem is it
:12:57. > :12:59.easy to campaign like that. If you are governing in a state of
:13:00. > :13:02.semi-hysteria, I wonder how long the American public will be comfortable
:13:03. > :13:05.with that. They don't really want their government to be swirling
:13:06. > :13:09.chaos all the time, as fascinating as it might be on TV. They will be
:13:10. > :13:15.exhausted by it, I already am. I have been interviewing White House
:13:16. > :13:19.administration official since 1976 and that is the first time someone
:13:20. > :13:21.hasn't given me a straight answer on America supporting the EU. That is a
:13:22. > :13:21.different America supporting the EU. That is a
:13:22. > :13:23.different world. Jo Coburn will be on BBC Two
:13:24. > :13:27.tomorrow at midday with the Daily Politics -
:13:28. > :13:31.and I'll be back here Remember, if it's Sunday -
:13:32. > :13:35.it's the Sunday Politics.