:00:37. > :00:40.Morning folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics.
:00:41. > :00:43.Pressure on Culture Secretary Maria Miller mounts as the Tory press,
:00:44. > :00:48.Tory voters and even a Tory Minister turn against her. That's our top
:00:49. > :00:51.story. The economic outlook is getting
:00:52. > :00:56.rosier. But Ed Miliband is having none of it. The cost of living
:00:57. > :01:05.crisis is here to stay, says Labour. Shadow Minister Caroline Flint joins
:01:06. > :01:09.us for the Sunday Interview. And we bring you the Sunday Politics
:01:10. > :01:10.Gallery. But which former world leader is behind these paintings of
:01:11. > :01:16.And coming up here... world
:01:17. > :01:17.And coming up here... Has Peter Robinson crossed the line?
:01:18. > :01:20.Sinn Fein's John O'Dowd and the SDLP's Alex Attwood debate the
:01:21. > :01:23.deepening divisions within the Executive over welfare reform.
:01:24. > :01:27.deepening divisions within the new London borough. A blue flint for
:01:28. > :01:37.And with me as always, the best and the brightest political panel in the
:01:38. > :01:40.business - Janan Ganesh, Helen Lewis and Nick Watt. Their tweets will be
:01:41. > :01:46.as brief as a Cabinet Minister's apology.
:01:47. > :01:50.A frenzy of betting on the Grand National yesterday. But there was
:01:51. > :01:53.one book on which betting was suspended, and that was on the fate
:01:54. > :01:56.of Culture Secretary Maria Miller, now the 2/1 favourite to be forced
:01:57. > :02:00.out the Cabinet. She galloped through her apology to the Commons
:02:01. > :02:03.on Thursday in just 32 seconds. But speed did her no favours. There's
:02:04. > :02:07.been mounting pressure on her to resign ever since, especially from
:02:08. > :02:09.Tories. And this weekend the Chairman of the Independent
:02:10. > :02:12.Parliamentary Standards Authority, Ian Kennedy, said it's time MPs gave
:02:13. > :02:27.away the power to decide how colleagues who break the rules are
:02:28. > :02:32.punished. An inquiry into Maria Miller's expenses claims was launch
:02:33. > :02:37.in 2012, following allegations he claimed ?90,000 to fund a house she
:02:38. > :02:42.lived in part time with her parents. She had designated this her second
:02:43. > :02:45.home. She was referred to the Parliamentary Standards
:02:46. > :02:52.Commissioner, who recommended that she repay ?45,000. But this week the
:02:53. > :02:56.Commons Standards Committee, comprising of MPs from all parties,
:02:57. > :03:03.dismissed the complaint against Maria Miller and ordered her to
:03:04. > :03:10.repay just ?5,800 for inadvertently overclaiming her merge claimants.
:03:11. > :03:13.She was forced to apologise to the Commons for the legalistic way she
:03:14. > :03:19.dealt with the complaints against her. But Tony Gallagher told the
:03:20. > :03:23.Daily Politics on Friday: We got a third call from Craig Oliver who
:03:24. > :03:28.pointed out, she is looking at Leveson and the call is badly timed.
:03:29. > :03:30.I think if you are making a series of telephone calls to a newspaper
:03:31. > :03:31.organisation investigating the conduct of a Cabinet Minister, that
:03:32. > :03:36.comes close After that interview Craig Oliver
:03:37. > :03:41.contacted us, saying there was no threat in anyway over Leveson. I
:03:42. > :03:45.mead it clear at the time. Tony Gallagher is talking rubbish about
:03:46. > :03:49.me, and you can use that. The Daily Telegraph have released a tape of a
:03:50. > :03:53.phone call between Maria Miller's aid, Joanna Hindley, and a reporter
:03:54. > :03:58.investigating her expenses claim. Joanna Hindley said:
:03:59. > :04:05.Maria's obviously been having quite a lot of editor's meetings around
:04:06. > :04:11.Leveson at the moment. So I'm just going to kind of flag up that
:04:12. > :04:14.connection for you to think about. The Prime Minister is sticking by
:04:15. > :04:17.his Culture Secretary, but this weekend's crescendo of criticism of
:04:18. > :04:20.her presents him with a problem and he could be wishing Maria Miller
:04:21. > :04:26.would just fall on her sword. Even over 80% of Tory voters in a Mail on
:04:27. > :04:28.Sunday poll think she should go. On the Andrew Marr Show, the Work and
:04:29. > :04:36.Pensions Secretary, Iain Duncan Smith, defended his colleague. I've
:04:37. > :04:40.known her always to be a reasonable and honest person. But is she doing
:04:41. > :04:43.the Government or her any good by staying in office at the moment, do
:04:44. > :04:47.you think? This is a matter the Prime Minister has to take
:04:48. > :04:52.consideration of and she herself. My view generally is I'm supportive of
:04:53. > :04:57.Maria, because if we are not careful we end one a witch-hunt of somebody.
:04:58. > :05:00.And I'm joined now by the Conservative MP, Bob Stewart, and
:05:01. > :05:02.the man in the white suit, former MP and anti-sleaze campaigner Martin
:05:03. > :05:05.Bell. Welcome to you both. Stuart Stuart sturkts let me put this to
:05:06. > :05:10.you, a Conservative MP told this programme, this is a quote, she has
:05:11. > :05:15.handled this appallingly. Downing Street has acted like judge and
:05:16. > :05:18.jury, for Craig Oliver to get involved is disastrous. She's been
:05:19. > :05:22.protected by the whips from the start. What do you say to that? It's
:05:23. > :05:27.not great, is it? The fact of the matter is the question one should
:05:28. > :05:34.ask is, did she deliberately try to make money? Did she deliberately try
:05:35. > :05:37.to obscure ate? The answer is she certainly didn't deliberately try to
:05:38. > :05:41.make money, in the system, which was the old system, and with regard to
:05:42. > :05:47.obscure ago, I wasn't there, but let's put it this way. She was going
:05:48. > :05:52.through a quasi-judicial process and might have ended up in court, so she
:05:53. > :05:57.has a right to defend herself. Hold on o you said she doesn't do it to
:05:58. > :06:01.make money, she remortgaged the house a couple of times to earn more
:06:02. > :06:04.interest to us, the taxpayer, and when interest rates went down she
:06:05. > :06:09.didn't reduce the amount she was charging in expenses. Well, the
:06:10. > :06:14.point is the adjudicator said there was ?45,000 she was owed. And then a
:06:15. > :06:19.committee, Standards Committee, said actually it should be reduced. That
:06:20. > :06:23.was mainly MPs but there are three lay members. Yes, but they don't
:06:24. > :06:27.have the vote. OK, fine, that is where it is wrong and we've got to
:06:28. > :06:31.get it sorted. Let me put another quote from our Conservative MP. He
:06:32. > :06:37.didn't want to be named. None of you do at the moment. I'm being named.
:06:38. > :06:40.But you are backing her. George young in cahoots. He's been leading
:06:41. > :06:45.on the Standards Committee to find her innocent. The Standards
:06:46. > :06:50.Committee is unfit for purpose. I think the Standards Committee should
:06:51. > :06:55.be revisited. I think the system is still evolving. And I think actually
:06:56. > :06:59.we ought to have totally independent judgment on MPs' pay and allowances.
:07:00. > :07:05.We haven't have not got there yet and that is where it is wrong.
:07:06. > :07:07.Martin Bell, have MPs interfered in the Maria Miller process and with
:07:08. > :07:12.the current Standards Commissioner in the same way that they saw off a
:07:13. > :07:17.previous Commissioner they thought was too independent? Andrew it is
:07:18. > :07:25.exactly the same. Yesterday I looked at a diary entry I made for May
:07:26. > :07:31.2000, I said, dreadful meeting standards and privileges, they are
:07:32. > :07:37.playing party politics. One of them told Elizabeth fill kin to her face
:07:38. > :07:42.the gossip in the tea room was she had gone crazy. Nothing's changed.
:07:43. > :07:47.What this shows is most of all, what's the committee for? If it is
:07:48. > :07:52.just going to rubber stamp what the party wants and its mates, I don't
:07:53. > :07:57.see any point. But it hasn't rubber stamped. It's changed it. Well, it
:07:58. > :08:01.has watered down. That's why we should make it totally independent
:08:02. > :08:08.and it shouldn't be involved in the House of Commons. It is plus plus ca
:08:09. > :08:13.change isn't it? MPs', scandal, and MPs closing ranks for one of their
:08:14. > :08:18.own. Has the Commons learned nothing? And this is after the
:08:19. > :08:22.expenses scandal, where everything was out for everybody to see, you
:08:23. > :08:26.would think MPs would be careful. This is before the expenses scandal.
:08:27. > :08:31.We are looking at an historical event, during your time, Martin, not
:08:32. > :08:35.mine. I'm clean on this. You campaigned for him as an
:08:36. > :08:40.independent. I did, he was a good friend of mine. And now you've
:08:41. > :08:44.joined the club. And now you are defending Maria Miller? I'm
:08:45. > :08:47.defending someone who hasn't been proved guilty of anything beyond the
:08:48. > :08:52.fact she was rather slow to come forward with evidence. My point on
:08:53. > :08:57.that, is I understand that. MPs are being lambasted the whole time these
:08:58. > :09:01.days. There were a heck of a lot of them, Martin, who are utterly
:09:02. > :09:06.decent. She didn't try to make money. We've just been through that.
:09:07. > :09:10.I don't think that's right. The jury is out on that. What should have
:09:11. > :09:14.happened in the Miller case, Martin Bell? I don't think there should be
:09:15. > :09:18.a committee on standards. I think the Commissioner should make a
:09:19. > :09:22.report. There has been to be justice for the MP complained against. Then
:09:23. > :09:28.the committee of the whole House can consider it. But we are, the House
:09:29. > :09:35.of Commons, then as now is incapable of regulating itself. That's been
:09:36. > :09:39.proving yet again. She made a perfunctory apology. She threatened
:09:40. > :09:43.and instructed the Standards Commissioner investigating her, and
:09:44. > :09:47.her special adviser linked expenses to Leveson, when trying to stop the
:09:48. > :09:52.Daily Telegraph from publishing. I mean, is that the behaviour of a
:09:53. > :09:55.Cabinet Minister? Well, it's probably not the behaviour of
:09:56. > :10:01.someone that's got time on their hands. She's a very busy Cabinet
:10:02. > :10:06.Minister. Well, she had enough time to write lots of letters to the
:10:07. > :10:13.Standards Commission ser. She felt under such threat. She had the time.
:10:14. > :10:17.She had to make the time. Die know the lady is not trying desperately
:10:18. > :10:21.to make money. I disagree but on that. The fact of the matter is,
:10:22. > :10:26.this was an old, old system, that we've tried to put right, or the
:10:27. > :10:30.Commons has tried to put right. I agree that MPs shouldn't get
:10:31. > :10:36.involved in this. Should we get rid of this committee? It serves no
:10:37. > :10:39.purpose except to cause trouble. The adjudicator has said that and it
:10:40. > :10:44.should be the end of it. It shouldn't come back to the Commons.
:10:45. > :10:48.Although her special adviser threatened them over Leveson she was
:10:49. > :10:54.and is the Minister responsible for trying to introduce something like
:10:55. > :11:00.Leveson and that is something a big chunk that the press doesn't want.
:11:01. > :11:06.She is a target. It has a good record on this issue. It played wit
:11:07. > :11:11.a straight bat. The facts aren't in dispute are they? Will she make it
:11:12. > :11:15.to the next cabinet reshuffle and then go? Iain Duncan Smith said it
:11:16. > :11:21.is a matter for the Prime Minister. In my view, as things stand, I
:11:22. > :11:27.question did she deliberately want to make money? I don't think she
:11:28. > :11:31.did. Should she go? No. Should she be reshuffled? I don't know.
:11:32. > :11:37.Goodness me, you are asking someone who will never be reshuffled,
:11:38. > :11:41.because he will never make it. I was only asking for your opinion, not
:11:42. > :11:46.your ability to do it. This is a problem for Cameron isn't it? It is
:11:47. > :11:52.a problem for Cameron. There is nothing wrong with returning to be
:11:53. > :11:58.badge benches, as you know. Hear, hear. To that. Stick with me. Helen,
:11:59. > :12:04.can she survive? Is I'm going out of the prediction game when I said
:12:05. > :12:10.Clegg is going to win the date, so I owe Janan a tenner on that one.
:12:11. > :12:17.Grant Shapps has supported her. She was ringed by Sir George young and
:12:18. > :12:22.Jeremy Hunt... This is pretty devastating. On past form David
:12:23. > :12:28.Cameron hates having to bounce people out of the cabinet. He will
:12:29. > :12:31.want to keep Maria Miller until the summer reshuffle. This is a question
:12:32. > :12:33.mark on whether she survive this is. This isn't damaging to the
:12:34. > :12:39.Conservative or the Labour Party, it is damaging to everyone. This is
:12:40. > :12:42.catastrophic damage to the entire political establishment. Every
:12:43. > :12:46.single speech that David Cameron and Ed Miliband have given since 2009,
:12:47. > :12:50.talking about restoring trust, they can wipe them from their computers,
:12:51. > :12:55.because voters are going to look that there and say, this lot haven't
:12:56. > :13:00.learnt anything. They are giving perfunctory apologies and then you
:13:01. > :13:06.have MPs sitting in judgment on MPs and rather than paying back ?45,000,
:13:07. > :13:11.she pays back ?5,800 after MPs have been into it. Damage is huge. Just
:13:12. > :13:15.getting rid of one Cabinet Minister, you will need to do more than that.
:13:16. > :13:19.You will notice that Labour haven't made huge weather of this. No,
:13:20. > :13:24.goodness me, they have their own skeletons. Exactly. The person who
:13:25. > :13:30.has made hay out of this is Nigel Farage, who has not been backwards
:13:31. > :13:34.in coming forward. He doesn't seem to care about skeletons. The Prime
:13:35. > :13:38.Minister has be-Gunby backing her, but that's not popular even with
:13:39. > :13:43.Tory voters. How does he get out of this? This is the problem for him.
:13:44. > :13:49.Five years ago his reaction to the expenses scandal was seen by many
:13:50. > :13:54.Tory backbenchers as excessive. They felt hung out to dry by a man who is
:13:55. > :13:59.independently wealthy. To go from that to making a special exemption
:14:00. > :14:02.to Maria Miller because it is politically suitable is more
:14:03. > :14:04.incendiary and provocative. It is not just upsetting the voters and
:14:05. > :14:09.the Daily Telegraph but a good number of people behind him. I think
:14:10. > :14:15.they will get rid of her. I think the Government, to paraphrase
:14:16. > :14:21.Churchill, will zoo the decent thing after exhausting all options, of the
:14:22. > :14:27.European elections a reshuffle. The culture department has gone from a
:14:28. > :14:30.baulk water in haul to one of the most politically sensational jobs
:14:31. > :14:34.because of its proximity to the Leveson issue. She has to be
:14:35. > :14:49.replaced by someone Lily skillful and substantial. Mr Cameron is not
:14:50. > :14:56.short of smart women? Nikki Morgan, the education department, these are
:14:57. > :15:02.absolutely outstanding women and the problem that the generation elected
:15:03. > :15:09.in 2005, Maria Miller generation, there are some really good people
:15:10. > :15:13.elected in 2010. You are not responsible for hacking into the
:15:14. > :15:24.culture Department's Twitter account last night? I was out at the time!
:15:25. > :15:28.They all say that! One so, Maria Miller is like a modern-day Robin
:15:29. > :15:36.Hood... She robs the poor to help the rich. Which one of us has not
:15:37. > :15:45.embezzled the taxpayer? I reckon it is the lady. You have the perfect
:15:46. > :15:54.cover. We would not know how to, would we? You cannot tweet from a
:15:55. > :15:58.mobile device, can you? Play it safe. No, do something dramatic.
:15:59. > :16:01.Have lots of pledges. Have just a few pledges. Ah, there must be a
:16:02. > :16:04.Labour policy review reaching its conclusion because everyone has some
:16:05. > :16:12.free advice for the party about its message and the man delivering it.
:16:13. > :16:18.Here's Adam. He is well liked by the public don't quite buy him as a
:16:19. > :16:21.leader. The papers say he is in hock to the unions and the party has a
:16:22. > :16:26.lead in the polls but it is not solid. Bartenders Neil Kinnock. That
:16:27. > :16:35.is what they said Winnie who lost the 1982 election. The whole country
:16:36. > :16:41.deserves better and we will work to ensure that the day will come when
:16:42. > :16:46.with the Labour government, the country will get better. Someone who
:16:47. > :16:52.was there can see some spooky parallels. The important lesson from
:16:53. > :16:56.1992 is it cannot rest on your laurels and hope for the best, you
:16:57. > :17:01.cannot sit on a lead of seven points because the election narrows that
:17:02. > :17:04.and you cannot rely on the government not getting its act
:17:05. > :17:09.together because the Conservative Party was well funded and organised,
:17:10. > :17:14.the double whammy posters, the tax bombshell, but incredibly effective
:17:15. > :17:21.and the message was unified and they beat us on the campaign. The lesson
:17:22. > :17:24.for Labour today is this lead will evaporate quite possibly over the
:17:25. > :17:30.next few months and we might go into the election behind in the polls.
:17:31. > :17:34.But Ed Miliband is getting conflicting advice about how to
:17:35. > :17:39.avoid 1992 happening. Be bold, be cautious and then, the idea that
:17:40. > :17:46.Labour can squeak into office with just 35% of the vote, which worries
:17:47. > :17:52.some people. Each month, the Labour Party meets around the country and
:17:53. > :17:56.last week, everybody spoke about the dangers of this 35% strategy. They
:17:57. > :18:02.were increasingly unhappy and it is very important that those people
:18:03. > :18:07.around the leader naturally have a duty to protect him and they make
:18:08. > :18:13.sure he gets this message that while there is total support for him, they
:18:14. > :18:16.do want this key year in the run-up to the General Election to be
:18:17. > :18:23.putting out an alternative which we can defend on the doorstep. The
:18:24. > :18:28.doorstep where Neil Kinnock made his concession speech is crammed with
:18:29. > :18:35.Spanish back hackers. The old Labour offices are no a budget hostel.
:18:36. > :18:39.Labour headquarters is down the road and they are putting the finishing
:18:40. > :18:43.touches to a speech Ed Miliband will give this week about the cost of
:18:44. > :18:47.living and I am told he will drop hints about new policies in juicy
:18:48. > :18:51.areas like housing, low pay, growth and devolving power. As for the
:18:52. > :18:55.charge that they are not radical enough, his people say they want to
:18:56. > :19:00.be bold but they have to be credible as well. They say that Labour is
:19:01. > :19:05.more united than it has ever been but there has been some grumbling
:19:06. > :19:09.that the cost of living campaign is not the same as a vision for the
:19:10. > :19:13.country. And that Ed Miliband was not statesman-like enough at Prime
:19:14. > :19:17.Minister's Questions and one figure who sat at the same table in the
:19:18. > :19:22.Neil Kinnock years summed it up like this. Things are OK but it feels
:19:23. > :19:25.like we're playing for the draw. Shadow Energy Secretary Caroline
:19:26. > :19:39.Flint joins me now for the Sunday Interview. This 35% victory
:19:40. > :19:46.strategy, it does not sound very ambitious? I am campaigning to win
:19:47. > :19:51.this election with a majority government and everybody else around
:19:52. > :19:56.the table is also. But we want to go to every corner of the country and
:19:57. > :20:01.win votes for Labour and win seats, that is what we are working towards.
:20:02. > :20:08.To avoid last time, the coalition bartering. But that 35% is a victory
:20:09. > :20:13.strategy so are you saying there is no 35% strategy and that no one at
:20:14. > :20:19.the heart of Labour is not arguing for this? We are working to win
:20:20. > :20:23.around the country and to win all of those battle ground seats and we
:20:24. > :20:28.must have a strategy that appeals to a cross-section of the public but
:20:29. > :20:38.within that, that broad group Queen Elizabeth Olympic Park and. You
:20:39. > :20:41.could do that with 35% of the vote? There is lots of polling and
:20:42. > :20:46.everyone looks at this about what we need to do to get seats and we want
:20:47. > :20:54.to have a comprehensive majority at the next election to win to govern
:20:55. > :20:58.this country. Last week, we have been reading reports of splits in
:20:59. > :21:04.the party over policy and on tactics, even strategy. A struggle
:21:05. > :21:11.for control of the General Election manifesto, we are told. What are you
:21:12. > :21:14.arguing over? I said on the committee and just listening to the
:21:15. > :21:19.film before, it is about being radical but also credible and we are
:21:20. > :21:25.talking about evolution and that is an important subject but we are also
:21:26. > :21:29.united and to be honest, in 2010 people were writing us off saying we
:21:30. > :21:34.would turn on ourselves and that has not been the case. We are not
:21:35. > :21:39.arguing about the fundamentals, we are discussing the policies that are
:21:40. > :21:42.coming up with different colleagues and talking about how we can make
:21:43. > :21:45.sure they are presented to the public and that is part of a
:21:46. > :21:53.process. That is a discussion, not disagreement. The Financial Times,
:21:54. > :21:59.which is usually pretty fair, reports a battle between Ed
:22:00. > :22:03.Miliband's radical instincts and the more business fiscal conservatism of
:22:04. > :22:08.Ed Balls. What side are you on? I am for radical change, I am for energy
:22:09. > :22:13.and I believe strongly we must be formed the market and people might
:22:14. > :22:18.portray that as anti-business but this is about more competition and
:22:19. > :22:22.transparency and others coming into this market so our policy on this is
:22:23. > :22:30.radical, not excepting the status quo. It is also for business.
:22:31. > :22:39.Opinion polls show that few people regard Ed Miliband as by Minister
:22:40. > :22:44.material -- Prime Minister material. That has been true since he became
:22:45. > :22:50.leader. And in some cases, they have been getting worse. Why is that?
:22:51. > :22:55.Opinion polls say certain things about the personalities of leaders,
:22:56. > :23:01.David Cameron is not great either. And they were not great when he was
:23:02. > :23:08.in opposition. At this stage, he was getting 49% as Prime Minister real
:23:09. > :23:15.material and Ed Miliband, 19. -- Prime Minister material. When you
:23:16. > :23:19.look at certain questions that the public is asked about who you think
:23:20. > :23:23.you would trust about being fair in terms of policy towards Britain, who
:23:24. > :23:29.understands the cost of living crisis, they very much identify with
:23:30. > :23:35.Ed Miliband. We are ahead in the polls. Ed Miliband has made that
:23:36. > :23:41.happen. We have one more councillors, we have been running in
:23:42. > :23:45.by-elections and we have held this government over the barrel over six
:23:46. > :23:49.months on energy prices. That is to do with his leadership. The more
:23:50. > :23:57.that voters save him, the less they seem convinced. In 2011, he had been
:23:58. > :24:06.leader for one year, and only 11% regarded him as weird, by 2014, that
:24:07. > :24:12.was 41%. Look at that! Look at that weirdness! What people need is to
:24:13. > :24:15.know where the Labour Party stands on fundamental issues. And in those
:24:16. > :24:20.areas, particularly the cost of living and fairness and people being
:24:21. > :24:25.concerned that we are entering into a period where people will be worse
:24:26. > :24:29.for the first time ever at the end of the Parliament, these things are
:24:30. > :24:37.important and Ed Miliband is part of our success. Definitely. I think
:24:38. > :24:42.this is ridiculous, to be fair, he is not a politician that says, I am
:24:43. > :24:50.dying with the Arctic monkeys, I know who is the number one. He did
:24:51. > :24:55.not play that game. -- down. He is not either there to portray himself
:24:56. > :25:00.as someone who was with the children, I know everything about
:25:01. > :25:04.popular culture. His authenticity is the most important thing. People do
:25:05. > :25:10.not think he is authentic, unless they think we were at is authentic.
:25:11. > :25:16.Is it true that his staff applaud him when he comes back after giving
:25:17. > :25:24.even a mediocre speech? I have never heard that. I have never heard about
:25:25. > :25:27.him being applauded. And I am pleased to applaud him with he makes
:25:28. > :25:31.speeches, I have given him a standing ovation. You have to do
:25:32. > :25:38.that because the cameras are rolling! No, he made a good speech.
:25:39. > :25:42.Five minutes without notes. It took a long time to memorise I don't
:25:43. > :25:48.blame him! The cost of living. Focusing on that, it has paid
:25:49. > :25:52.dividends. But inflation is falling and perhaps collapsing, unemployment
:25:53. > :25:59.is falling faster than anybody thought, as we can see. Wages are
:26:00. > :26:04.rising, soon faster than prices. Retail sales are booming, people
:26:05. > :26:09.have got money in their pockets. Isn't the cost of living crisis
:26:10. > :26:16.narrative running out of steam? I do not think so and I should say that I
:26:17. > :26:20.welcome any sign of positive changes in the economy, if anybody gets a
:26:21. > :26:26.job in Doncaster, I am pleased by the end of this Parliament families
:26:27. > :26:33.will be over ?900 worse off because of tax and benefit changes and the
:26:34. > :26:36.working person is ?1600 worse off and it is the first government since
:26:37. > :26:40.the 1870s where people will be at the end of the Parliament. We
:26:41. > :26:44.believe the government made wrong choices that lead the rich off at
:26:45. > :26:52.the expense of those on middle and lower incomes. -- let the rich. The
:26:53. > :26:57.average family ?794 worse off from tax and benefit changes. That has
:26:58. > :27:02.been backed up. They are those figures. But he has skewed these
:27:03. > :27:08.figures by including the richest, where the fall in tax and the
:27:09. > :27:13.penalty they pay is highest. If you take away the richest, it is nowhere
:27:14. > :27:17.near that figure. Everybody agrees and even the government and
:27:18. > :27:23.knowledges that at the end of their tenure in Parliament, people will be
:27:24. > :27:27.worse off. 350,000 extra people who would desperately like full-time
:27:28. > :27:31.work who are working part-time and 1 million young people unemployed and
:27:32. > :27:36.the reason the cost of living has a residence is people feel that. I was
:27:37. > :27:41.in a supermarket and at Doncaster and someone summed this up, he said
:27:42. > :27:45.I work hard and at the end of the week, beyond paying bills, I have
:27:46. > :27:54.got nothing else. If you take away the top 10% who are losing over
:27:55. > :28:00.?600,000, the average loss comes down to around ?400, less than half
:28:01. > :28:07.of what you claim. That figure is totally misleading. These are the
:28:08. > :28:13.figures from the IFS. It still shows... Whatever way you shape
:28:14. > :28:16.this, people will still be worse off, families worse off because of
:28:17. > :28:23.these changes to tax and benefits and working people because wages
:28:24. > :28:28.have not kept up with prices. Your energy portfolio, you back the
:28:29. > :28:32.enquiry into the big six companies and you intend to go ahead with the
:28:33. > :28:38.price freeze and reconfigure the market even before it reports. If
:28:39. > :28:41.you win, this is a waste of time? Whilst we have had this process
:28:42. > :28:46.before the announcement, we always feel if it goes that way, there
:28:47. > :28:49.might be areas we have not thought of that the enquiry will also draw
:28:50. > :28:53.attention to that we might want to add on. You are right, our basic
:28:54. > :28:59.reforms for the new regulator, to separate generation supply, we will
:29:00. > :29:03.pursue that. What happens if this report concludes that your plans are
:29:04. > :29:09.not correct? You will still go ahead? I don't think so. Actually,
:29:10. > :29:13.if you look at the report that Ofgem produced, some of the issues Labour
:29:14. > :29:18.has been drawing attention to like vertical integration, they cover
:29:19. > :29:23.that. I was asking about the Competition Commission? The report
:29:24. > :29:31.last week is a result of working together and I think it is clearly
:29:32. > :29:34.accepted in this sector, look at SSE last week, they will separate the
:29:35. > :29:55.business. We are pushing at the open door. It has already pulled out of
:29:56. > :29:58.gas. So it follows if you freeze energy prices across the market, it
:29:59. > :30:02.might be the right thing to do but there will be a cost in terms of
:30:03. > :30:06.jobs and investment, correct? Well, I met with SSE last weekand the
:30:07. > :30:11.chief executive and talked about these issues. The jobs changes are
:30:12. > :30:14.partly about them looking at how they could be more efficient as a
:30:15. > :30:17.company. On offshore wind that wasn't really to do with the price
:30:18. > :30:20.freeze. That was more to do with issues around confidence in that
:30:21. > :30:26.area and therefore willing to put the money into it, as well as
:30:27. > :30:32.technical issues as well But there'll be job losses. Is that a
:30:33. > :30:36.price worth paying? We believe the reason we are having a price freeze
:30:37. > :30:39.is these companies have been overcharging customers and haven't
:30:40. > :30:43.been investing in their organisations and making them more
:30:44. > :30:47.efficient. I do not believe a price freeze is linked to job losses.
:30:48. > :30:50.These companies do need to be more efficient. Goal for all of us is
:30:51. > :30:54.realising the fantastic opportunity for more jobs and growth from an
:30:55. > :30:58.energy sector that has certainty going forward. That's what Labour
:30:59. > :31:01.will deliver. Caroline Flint, thank you.
:31:02. > :31:04.It's 1130 and you're watching The Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to
:31:05. > :31:06.viewers in Scotland, who leave us now for Sunday Politics Scotland.
:31:07. > :31:20.Coming up here in Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics
:31:21. > :31:23.in Northern Ireland. Deadlock over welfare reform, differing accounts
:31:24. > :31:31.about a deal, now a war of words between the First and Deputy First
:31:32. > :31:34.Ministers. Sinn Fein was unable to get
:31:35. > :31:38.agreement from their Party for the package.
:31:39. > :31:44.The suggestion that I had said I would go to my Party to seek the
:31:45. > :31:54.sanction and support of my Party for the discussions that we had with the
:31:55. > :31:58.DUP is not true. So is it just another pre-election
:31:59. > :32:01.stand-off, or is it a real crisis within the Executive? We'll ask Sinn
:32:02. > :32:05.Fein's John O'Dowd and Alex Attwood of the SDLP if the situation can be
:32:06. > :32:08.resolved this side of the election. And from difficult relationships at
:32:09. > :32:11.Stormont to what has been called a "warm and positive one" between the
:32:12. > :32:14.Republic of Ireland and the United Kingdom. Martin McGuinness says
:32:15. > :32:17.he'll dine with the Queen in London to honour the Irish President
:32:18. > :32:20.Michael D Higgins's first official state visit to the UK.
:32:21. > :32:32.Joining me to discuss all of that and more are PR consultant Sheila
:32:33. > :32:37.Davidson and commentator Alex Kane. So, how bad are things between the
:32:38. > :32:42.first and Deputy First Minister 's? Has this latest spat over welfare
:32:43. > :32:46.reform brought their relationship to a new low point or is it just
:32:47. > :32:50.electioneering? Peter Robinson up the stakes when he outlined what he
:32:51. > :32:54.called one of his nuclear option is to hand back powers on welfare
:32:55. > :32:58.reform to Westminster. Martin McGuiness hit back saying he had
:32:59. > :33:01.crossed the line in claiming he had tried but failed to sell a deal to
:33:02. > :33:04.his Party. We will hear from Sinn Fein and the STL P Enimont, but
:33:05. > :33:10.first there is a reminder of what the First Minister told me on
:33:11. > :33:16.Thursday. -- we will hear from the SDLP in a moment.
:33:17. > :33:21.We had the removal of what was known as the bedroom tax for anyone in a
:33:22. > :33:25.property in Northern Ireland, and we agreed that we should have a
:33:26. > :33:30.contingency fund. We looked at putting aside some ?40 million to
:33:31. > :33:38.deal with the special hardship cases. As with any other set of
:33:39. > :33:41.negotiations, the Sinn Fein representatives had to go back to
:33:42. > :33:47.their Party and I had to go back to mine. We got approval from the DUP
:33:48. > :33:54.for the package. Sinn Fein was unable to get agreement from their
:33:55. > :33:57.Party for the package, and in the 11 months since then they have never
:33:58. > :34:05.come back to us to ask for any further changes, nor have they
:34:06. > :34:07.succeeded in all of their negotiations with the British
:34:08. > :34:12.government in getting any change to the process at all. Did you believe
:34:13. > :34:17.that Martin McGuiness and his team locally here at Stormont had agreed
:34:18. > :34:24.to a deal? I wouldn't take any part ice package
:34:25. > :34:27.to my Party colleagues I was unsatisfied with myself.
:34:28. > :34:30.So you felt he was satisfied with the compromises that were contained
:34:31. > :34:37.in that agreement? I don't think either of us were
:34:38. > :34:41.seeing isn't this brilliant? This was the best fist that could be made
:34:42. > :34:45.of it, and it would provide the very best welfare package on the whole in
:34:46. > :34:49.the UK. For a start, in terms of his
:34:50. > :34:52.interpretation of the discussions that took place between his Party
:34:53. > :34:57.and mine over the issue of welfare cuts, what he said on the programme
:34:58. > :35:02.bore no reality whatsoever to the outcome. The suggestion that I had
:35:03. > :35:09.said I would go to my Party to seek the sanction of my Party, the
:35:10. > :35:13.support of my Party for the discussions that we had with the DUP
:35:14. > :35:17.is not true. Martin McGuiness and Peter Robinson
:35:18. > :35:22.with differing accounts of where we are with welfare reform. With me now
:35:23. > :35:28.are Sinn Fein's John O'Dowd, education Minister in the Executive,
:35:29. > :35:33.and the SDLP's Alex Attwood, a former member of the Executive.
:35:34. > :35:37.Martin McGuiness says Peter Robinson has crossed the line. Is your Party
:35:38. > :35:39.simply up in arms because the First Minister has now spilled the beans
:35:40. > :35:44.on something that is embarrassing for Sinn Fein? Namely that the
:35:45. > :35:49.Deputy First Minister could not sell the draft deal to his own Party?
:35:50. > :35:54.Understands this, if Martin McGuiness had come forward to the
:35:55. > :35:58.Party with a package and it had Martin McGuiness's endorsement, the
:35:59. > :36:01.likelihood is any package would have gone through anyhow.
:36:02. > :36:04.Martin McGuiness is a very thoughtful individual, he thinks
:36:05. > :36:09.these matters through and his leadership is deeply respected in
:36:10. > :36:13.the Party. If Martin McGuiness brought a package to our Party to be
:36:14. > :36:17.accepted the likelihood is it would be accepted...
:36:18. > :36:20.But it is absolutely in contradiction to what Peter Robinson
:36:21. > :36:24.says. He says there was a draft package, he specifically signed off
:36:25. > :36:28.on it with Martin McGuiness, Martin McGuiness went to his Party and
:36:29. > :36:33.could not sell that draft package to them. He is saying that is not
:36:34. > :36:36.correct. I am seeing it, Martin McGuiness is saying it.
:36:37. > :36:38.There was no package brought to our Party.
:36:39. > :36:44.What line has Peter Robinson crossed? If it didn't happen?
:36:45. > :36:48.There are a number of lines he has crossed. The confidentiality between
:36:49. > :36:52.Martin McGuiness and Peter Robinson has to be sacrosanct, because those
:36:53. > :36:56.men have to be able to work together and trust each other and have
:36:57. > :37:00.discussions with each other. To misrepresent Martin McGuiness's
:37:01. > :37:04.position is crossing the line. It makes it extremely difficult for
:37:05. > :37:08.that trust to be held between two senior people in our Executive if
:37:09. > :37:13.one is misrepresenting another's position.
:37:14. > :37:16.Isn't this embarrassing for Sinn Fein? Actually, Peter Robinson's
:37:17. > :37:23.version of events is the correct version of events?
:37:24. > :37:28.Does the Party strike you as being embarrassed two why would Peter
:37:29. > :37:34.Robinson say that? We are talking about this instead of
:37:35. > :37:39.talking about the past talks, -- the doctor has to talks. Instead of
:37:40. > :37:42.talking about Peter Robinson's constituency of east Belfast. All of
:37:43. > :37:46.those things are not being discussed, but one line from Peter
:37:47. > :37:49.Robinson is being discussed. That is why he said it. All of those things
:37:50. > :37:54.are no longer in the media. We're now having to sit and talk about
:37:55. > :37:58.that conversation that did not take place. We should be talking about
:37:59. > :38:01.how we as an Executive approach the British government and bring to an
:38:02. > :38:06.end the worst elements of the Welfare Reform Bill.
:38:07. > :38:09.How do you respond to this charge that your Party is economically
:38:10. > :38:12.illiterate? At one stage in the interview on Thursday night he said,
:38:13. > :38:19.I will explain it very simply encase anyone from Sinn Fein is watching?
:38:20. > :38:22.He is arrogant beyond belief. Those who coined the phrase
:38:23. > :38:28.economically illiterate were from the Dublin regime, that prod the
:38:29. > :38:33.economy in the south to its knees. -- that brought the economy.
:38:34. > :38:39.Our policies are credible across the board. Our policies in relation to
:38:40. > :38:45.the budget in the South have been cause of disagreement in the South.
:38:46. > :38:49.Economically they are credible. Peter Robinson was equally scathing
:38:50. > :38:54.about the SDLP's position on welfare reform. You whether social
:38:55. > :38:56.development Minister that started negotiations with the Treasury on
:38:57. > :39:01.this matter and nothing has been agreed, that was back in 2010, four
:39:02. > :39:05.years ago. First of all, let me deal with this
:39:06. > :39:09.Peter Robinson issue. There was a deal done between Martin McGuiness
:39:10. > :39:11.and Peter Robinson and Gerry Adams pulled the carpet out...
:39:12. > :39:18.You are agreeing with Peter Robinson, you are saying that John
:39:19. > :39:22.O'Dowd is not telling it as it is? The deal was pulled by Gerry Adams
:39:23. > :39:26.and I was told by senior people in and around the Irish government,
:39:27. > :39:30.that is probably corroboration. The more worrying thing is that Martin
:39:31. > :39:35.McGuiness did that deal with Peter Robinson because that deal did not
:39:36. > :39:40.deal with the issues of welfare reform and cuts. It was a weak deal
:39:41. > :39:43.done in the image of Peter Robinson, with Martin McGuiness
:39:44. > :39:48.being a cheerleader from the side. What we have to do now, however, and
:39:49. > :39:51.this is where I agree with John, is that in parallel to the two
:39:52. > :39:55.governments, with the American government close by, after the 22nd
:39:56. > :40:02.of May bringing to a conclusion the doctor has its use, there should be
:40:03. > :40:13.a parallel discussion with London over this issue. -- bringing to a
:40:14. > :40:16.conclusion the Haas issues. They have the measure of Nelson
:40:17. > :40:22.McCausland, because he is more interested in any parade and credit
:40:23. > :40:27.goes and what it does and does not do in north Belfast than he is on
:40:28. > :40:30.welfare. Welfare reform has to be negotiated by the Executive, by all
:40:31. > :40:36.parties and in a process parallel to the conclusions of the Haass
:40:37. > :40:40.negotiations, if not before the 22nd of May then immediately afterwards.
:40:41. > :40:43.I am sorry, I have to go back to John O'Dowd, how do you respond to
:40:44. > :40:48.Alex Attwood who says he believes Peter Robinson's version of events?
:40:49. > :40:52.To make matters worse he says that has been corroborated by the Irish
:40:53. > :40:56.government. Thankfully, Alex is not a member of
:40:57. > :41:02.Sinn Fein so he would not be aware of any discussions within Sinn Fein.
:41:03. > :41:06.Alex is electioneering here. He is a former member of the Executive.
:41:07. > :41:11.But he is still not a former or president -- present member of Sinn
:41:12. > :41:15.Fein. Alex is sitting here seeking votes, rather than a resolution to
:41:16. > :41:19.welfare reform. There is no point in me fighting with the DUP author DUP
:41:20. > :41:24.fainting with Sinn Fein or me sitting fighting with Alex.
:41:25. > :41:27.He is a former social development Minister.
:41:28. > :41:34.Yes, there is comedy brought forth bills that damaged and afflicted the
:41:35. > :41:37.poor. What we need to do is present a united front to the British
:41:38. > :41:41.government and work on this as a collective, rather than niggling at
:41:42. > :41:46.each other and... But this is fairly embarrassing for
:41:47. > :41:49.Sinn Fein, isn't it? People don't believe your version of events.
:41:50. > :41:52.Citizens will make up their own minds on these matters.
:41:53. > :41:57.Alex? A number of things. On the 24th of
:41:58. > :42:03.February in the Assembly, I outlined at length the SDLP approach to
:42:04. > :42:08.welfare reform saying that we would limit the damage to the block grant.
:42:09. > :42:12.Now if we estimated the negotiation to an Executive level and outlined
:42:13. > :42:15.what that looked like, unfortunately Simon Hamilton, the finance
:42:16. > :42:21.minister, did not even bother responding to a better strategy to
:42:22. > :42:25.deal with this issue. Given that the biggest damage in any part of
:42:26. > :42:28.Britain and Northern Ireland in part -- in terms of welfare cuts has been
:42:29. > :42:32.here. How do you resolve welfare reform
:42:33. > :42:36.now? It seems impossible for this circle to be squared?
:42:37. > :42:42.First of all, Peter Robinson is electioneering. He is telling the
:42:43. > :42:48.truth about welfare reform. But he is election nearing. He is beating
:42:49. > :42:51.his chest because he wants to have this election defined in terms of
:42:52. > :42:59.poking Sinn Fein and the SDLP in the eye. This is how we as -- this is
:43:00. > :43:04.very important. In parallel to negotiations if not before then
:43:05. > :43:08.after the 22nd of May involving the two governments in the parties and
:43:09. > :43:12.the American government close by, you have a negotiation to bring
:43:13. > :43:16.Haass to a conclusion. At the same time you have an all-party approach
:43:17. > :43:20.to deal with the issue. In one sentence if you would, Peter
:43:21. > :43:29.Robinson, how do we restore trust between the first and Deputy First
:43:30. > :43:33.Minister is? -- First Ministers. There are challenges in the heart of
:43:34. > :43:38.the Executive and on the streets, which Unionism has to lift up to,
:43:39. > :43:42.and the leader of Unionism, Peter Robinson, has to live up to that. He
:43:43. > :43:46.has to be talented, as well. Only on Thursday we found out that the UVF
:43:47. > :43:52.are organising a campaign of intimidation towards minorities.
:43:53. > :43:56.What is he doing to challenge that? He makes allegations towards his
:43:57. > :44:00.partners in government. Let us hear what my guests of the
:44:01. > :44:04.day make of all of that. Joining me is Sheila Davidson and Alex Kane.
:44:05. > :44:10.Alex, could you see your way through that disagreement?
:44:11. > :44:14.It is the same old, same old. It is the same story since 2011, Alex and
:44:15. > :44:19.John attacking the DUP and each other, then bringing in Haass and
:44:20. > :44:23.the UVF when they are supposed to be talking about welfare. This thing
:44:24. > :44:28.has been going on for three and a half years, it is not new. The
:44:29. > :44:31.government announced this in 2010, yet here we are three and a happy
:44:32. > :44:35.years later and they have not agreed anything. They are having separate
:44:36. > :44:39.talks the Exchequer. We do not know for sure because we
:44:40. > :44:43.were not there on that particularly sad -- particular Saturday morning
:44:44. > :44:48.when Martin McGuiness, apparently, called Peter Robinson in to say he
:44:49. > :44:52.could not sell him this package. We have two competing versions of
:44:53. > :44:55.events. How do we explain this fundamental disagreement on what
:44:56. > :44:58.happened? They do not like each other. The
:44:59. > :45:02.core of this agreement is the two parties do not like each other or
:45:03. > :45:06.share the same agenda. We have had this before going back to the maze
:45:07. > :45:09.prison. Martin McGuiness said publicly he thought he had agreed a
:45:10. > :45:14.deal with Peter Robinson which Peter Robinson reneged on. The same now
:45:15. > :45:18.with welfare. People need to understand that
:45:19. > :45:21.ordinary members of the public are watching this debate and have not
:45:22. > :45:25.got a clue who do believe other than the parties they support. There is
:45:26. > :45:29.no logic to any of it that ordinary members of the public can
:45:30. > :45:31.understand, but what they do understand is the bleeding in the
:45:32. > :45:40.newspapers about what is happening in England and Wales where people
:45:41. > :45:45.who are making this new welfare reform are finding difficulty in
:45:46. > :45:50.finding places to live. Iain Duncan Smith was on Andrew Marr of this
:45:51. > :45:58.morning talking about people being able to live. People here are
:45:59. > :46:02.watching that not one politician here is talking about what they want
:46:03. > :46:06.to talk about. They are talking in big figures, talking in politics,
:46:07. > :46:10.and everyone is electioneering at the moment. People understand that
:46:11. > :46:14.but we are going to switch off and not vote. We have to leave it there.
:46:15. > :46:19.No meeting of minds, thank you all very much for coming to join us.
:46:20. > :46:21.Let us pause for a round-up of the political week in 60 seconds with
:46:22. > :46:32.Martina Purdy. As the stalemate over welfare reform
:46:33. > :46:34.rumbles on, the First Minister warns Northern Ireland faces and nuclear
:46:35. > :46:38.option. Two of the parties in the five Party
:46:39. > :46:42.coalition are prepared to take the tough decisions, therefore you have
:46:43. > :46:44.to take this office. We no longer want to have devolved to as these
:46:45. > :46:48.issues. The controversy runs on as a former
:46:49. > :46:52.senior police officer gives his side of the story.
:46:53. > :46:58.I would not see it as a cultural thing in the Northern Ireland Office
:46:59. > :47:01.to share that Republicans were not prosecuted.
:47:02. > :47:04.The health service still under huge strain, the minister comes in for
:47:05. > :47:10.criticism. Will the Minister now be considering
:47:11. > :47:15.his position? An entirely Northern Ireland pork --
:47:16. > :47:19.property portfolio is sold to US investment firm. And as the Assembly
:47:20. > :47:23.waves goodbye to double jobbing one MLA raises a smile.
:47:24. > :47:27.The minister come as a junior minister, was also a counsellor and
:47:28. > :47:27.some thought he may be drove a taxi at
:47:28. > :47:39.Martina Purdy reporting. Now we know after weeks of will he, won't he,
:47:40. > :47:43.Sinn Fein has announced Martin McGuiness will attend events during
:47:44. > :47:48.next week's state visit to Great Britain by the Irish president,
:47:49. > :47:52.Michael D Higgins. After what was seen as a hugely successful visit by
:47:53. > :47:58.the Queen to the Republic, what will this visit bring?
:47:59. > :48:03.Joining us this morning is Brian O'Connell, thank you for joining
:48:04. > :48:06.us. I suppose the focus must now be on the fact that Martin McGuiness
:48:07. > :48:10.has confirmed he will attend proceedings, including the state
:48:11. > :48:15.dinner. Are you surprised? No, I am not. It would probably be
:48:16. > :48:19.bigger music Martin McGuiness was going to boycott this. I personally
:48:20. > :48:25.think that Sinn Fein missed a trick when they boycotted the Queen's
:48:26. > :48:30.banquet in Dublin Castle in 2011. I think they realised it afterwards.
:48:31. > :48:35.Yes, they did have some problems with their core supporters. They
:48:36. > :48:39.will still have problems, because Martin McGuiness has accepted this
:48:40. > :48:44.invitation, but I think, as John O'Dowd was mentioning there, Sinn
:48:45. > :48:50.Fein have a broader agenda south of the border, as well. They are
:48:51. > :48:54.increasingly significant Party in the Dail, they are going up in the
:48:55. > :48:57.opinion polls and it would have liked other strange coming up to
:48:58. > :49:05.European elections if they had not attended some of the events that the
:49:06. > :49:10.Irish head of state was attending. -- it would have looked rather
:49:11. > :49:14.strange. Is there a sense of anticipation
:49:15. > :49:18.with one week to go, are people watching developments keenly?
:49:19. > :49:25.There certainly is amongst the Irish community here in Britain, and Irish
:49:26. > :49:28.people, the Irish are probably the biggest ethnic minority in Britain
:49:29. > :49:33.at the moment. Outside of that community, I do not think that the
:49:34. > :49:39.state visit has actually raised an awful lot of interest at the moment.
:49:40. > :49:45.It will then it happens, when it starts on Tuesday, when the Queen
:49:46. > :49:48.greets President Higgins in winter. -- in Windsor Castle. People are
:49:49. > :49:53.probably now considering the longer term, looking forward the
:49:54. > :50:01.relationship is probably more about trade and economic issues as much as
:50:02. > :50:02.it is about Northern Ireland and the issues we have been discussing
:50:03. > :50:08.earlier. Brian, thank you for joining us.
:50:09. > :50:11.Let us hear the final thoughts of Alex Kane and Sheila Davidson.
:50:12. > :50:19.Sheila, quite a photograph of Martin McGuiness going into the state
:50:20. > :50:22.banquet in his right eye and coat-tails two -- white tie.
:50:23. > :50:25.I think we are seeing Sinn Fein move into an entirely different era in
:50:26. > :50:28.how they approach this. They are trying to be more statesman-like. I
:50:29. > :50:32.do not know how it will play with the recent past and of the John
:50:33. > :50:38.Downie issue and how that will affect the mood music of how people
:50:39. > :50:40.will commentate on that? Is it all about southern politics,
:50:41. > :50:46.Alex? I think it is bigger than that. It
:50:47. > :50:48.is a perfect and balance of what is happening in Northern Ireland
:50:49. > :50:53.between all the parties. Sinn Fein and the DUP need to be aware that
:50:54. > :50:58.London and Dublin will -- are getting on very well at the moment.
:50:59. > :51:01.At photograph of Martin McGuiness going in, that will be very
:51:02. > :51:06.significant, will it not? I think it will be. It is theatre
:51:07. > :51:07.here. It is a sign they are still in the process.
:51:08. > :51:07.here. It is a sign they are still in Dobson. Tim Donovan is back in the
:51:08. > :51:07.chair the process.
:51:08. > :51:08.Like the process.
:51:09. > :51:22.chair next week. And with that, back to Andrew. Welcome back and time now
:51:23. > :51:29.to get more from our panel. So they can justify their meagre patents.
:51:30. > :51:34.This cost of living mantra will last all the way until the election.
:51:35. > :51:37.Cannot? Ed Miliband leaves he is onto something and for most of this
:51:38. > :51:43.Parliament, inflation has outstripped wages. That is going to
:51:44. > :51:49.go the other way and wages will rise, to which you say Ed Miliband
:51:50. > :51:53.has nothing to say. He says if you think people are going to feel
:51:54. > :51:56.better in the blink of an eye, you are a Conservative and do not
:51:57. > :52:00.understand the depth of this and he is taking the message from a
:52:01. > :52:06.presidential election in America in 2012 and make Romney was ahead on
:52:07. > :52:10.some of the economic indicators but Barack Obama was ahead on the key
:52:11. > :52:14.one, do you believe this candidate will make your family's life
:52:15. > :52:21.better? The message that Ed Miliband will try to say is the next election
:52:22. > :52:24.is about whose side are you on? And he believes Labour will be on the
:52:25. > :52:28.side of more voters than conservatives. It would be crazy for
:52:29. > :52:34.Labour not to talk about the cost of living because even if wages exceed
:52:35. > :52:37.inflation next year, it is not as if voters will walk around feeling like
:52:38. > :52:43.Imelda Marcos, they will still feel as if they were struggling and not
:52:44. > :52:50.just compared... Retail sales are slowing? That is not the sign of
:52:51. > :52:57.palpable disparity. Circumstances are better than three years ago but
:52:58. > :53:00.not better than five years ago. The Reagan question will still be
:53:01. > :53:06.employed, are you better off than at the last election? But things in
:53:07. > :53:11.America were actually getting worse when he asked that. I covered that
:53:12. > :53:16.election, that is why it resonated and they did get worse. The
:53:17. > :53:22.Ayatollah had quadrupled the price of oil. This is based on things
:53:23. > :53:27.getting relatively better, after a very long wait, so the cost of
:53:28. > :53:33.living critique will have to adapt? It will but it gets out of a very
:53:34. > :53:37.sticky spot and the IFS says wages will not outstrip inflation and by
:53:38. > :53:41.that time they can start talking about other things, plans for the
:53:42. > :53:45.railways and tuition fees and at the moment, everything is up for grabs.
:53:46. > :53:49.Labour know that every time they talk about something they want to
:53:50. > :53:53.do, the question is, how do you pay for it? They can talk about the
:53:54. > :53:57.economy and they don't have substantial things to say. Is it
:53:58. > :54:03.true that Mr Iain Duncan Smith was going to make a major announcement
:54:04. > :54:08.on benefit cheats? Or something to do with that this morning? But he
:54:09. > :54:12.decided against it because of the tobacco over Maria Miller? It would
:54:13. > :54:18.be very odd to go on to The Andrew Marr Show to have a chat and see
:54:19. > :54:21.what he is having for lunch. Patrick went from the Guardian said he was
:54:22. > :54:25.going to set out higher financial penalty phase for providing
:54:26. > :54:31.inaccurate information in claims. This is a bad day to do that, given
:54:32. > :54:37.that MP expenses are treated far more lenient the than any one from
:54:38. > :54:42.Joe public. That would be fascinating, if true. And he is
:54:43. > :54:47.making a very big speech on well for tomorrow and this tweet from Patrick
:54:48. > :54:51.went at the Guardian, he has proper sized on welfare matters and he
:54:52. > :54:57.tends to know what is going on. But it would be deeply unfortunate if
:54:58. > :55:00.that was the message today. How can he make a speech that has anything
:55:01. > :55:05.about cracking down on benefit claimants? Not today but I am not
:55:06. > :55:12.sure tomorrow. Do you get the impression that nobody in both main
:55:13. > :55:17.parties is very confident of winning in 2015? I column last week said the
:55:18. > :55:21.result, the most likely result from one year on is another hung
:55:22. > :55:26.parliament and which government results from that depends on the
:55:27. > :55:30.mathematical specifics of whether the Tories can do a deal as well as
:55:31. > :55:34.Labour, leaving everything in the hands of Nick Clegg or whether one
:55:35. > :55:38.party can do a straightforward deal but I do not detect any sense of
:55:39. > :55:44.exuberance or confidence in either camp. And the Tories are still
:55:45. > :55:48.shooting themselves over losing the boundary commission reforms because
:55:49. > :55:51.that was going to net them 20 seats and they lost that because they
:55:52. > :55:55.messed up the House of Lords reform and there are still furious with
:55:56. > :55:59.themselves. The former US President, George W Bush, has been a busy boy
:56:00. > :56:02.and here at the Sunday Politics we thought you'd like to see the
:56:03. > :56:07.results of his artistic endeavours. Time for the gallery.
:56:08. > :56:55.I was a prize to find myself saying, some of these are not bad! --
:56:56. > :57:02.surprised. Vladimir Putin? I like the one of Tony Blair but his early
:57:03. > :57:07.ones of dogs, to be in the presence of the master is to see his portrait
:57:08. > :57:13.of a Joanne Love. He is not of the Turner prize but I was surprised. He
:57:14. > :57:19.gets the mask of Vladimir Putin, also Tony Blair. I was impressed
:57:20. > :57:23.that he did not allow personal or political grudges to influence his
:57:24. > :57:28.artwork. Jacques Chirac, he comes out of this incredibly well! And
:57:29. > :57:34.Angela Merkel comes out astonishingly well. Quite generous
:57:35. > :57:38.as well. Tony Blair is the best one and the reason is he had the closest
:57:39. > :57:42.relationship with them and he has talked about this portrait, saying
:57:43. > :57:48.he was quite fond of him and you can see that. These are awful, they
:57:49. > :57:55.would not get you an A-level but you must admire him to have the guts to
:57:56. > :58:01.do this, and display them publicly! An A-level? Just doing joined up
:58:02. > :58:06.numbers gets you that these days! What do you do when you retire? This
:58:07. > :58:10.is less embarrassing than some of the other things people have done.
:58:11. > :58:18.As good as Churchill? I don't know... No! Churchill was brilliant!
:58:19. > :58:21.And on that! That's all for today. Tune into BBC Two every day at
:58:22. > :58:24.lunchtime this week for the Daily Politics. And we'll be back at the
:58:25. > :58:28.later time of 2:30pm next Sunday after the London Marathon. Remember,
:58:29. > :58:35.if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.