07/05/2017

:00:38. > :00:41.It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:42. > :00:44.The local election results made grim reading for Labour.

:00:45. > :00:48.With just a month to go until the general election,

:00:49. > :00:52.will promising to rule out tax rises for all but the well off help

:00:53. > :00:57.The Conservatives have their own announcement on mental health,

:00:58. > :01:00.as they strain every sinew to insist they don't think they've got

:01:01. > :01:07.But is there still really all to play for?

:01:08. > :01:11.And tonight we will find out who is the next

:01:12. > :01:15.President of France - Emmanuel Macron or Marine Le Pen -

:01:16. > :01:19.after an unpredictable campaign that ended with a hack attack

:01:20. > :01:23.The starting gun has been fired in the general election,

:01:24. > :01:25.but what issues will dominate the campaign here?

:01:26. > :01:27.We'll hear from the Green Party and People Before Profit.

:01:28. > :01:32.Join me in half an hour. potential impact in marginals next

:01:33. > :01:38.month. If Ukip support continues to evaporate...

:01:39. > :01:41.And joining me for all of that, three journalists ready

:01:42. > :01:45.to analyse the week's politics with all the forensic

:01:46. > :01:48.focus of Diane Abbott preparing for an interview,

:01:49. > :01:50.and all the relaxed, slogan-free banter of Theresa May

:01:51. > :01:56.It's Janan Ganesh, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards.

:01:57. > :02:03.So, the Conservatives are promising, if re-elected, to change mental

:02:04. > :02:06.health laws in England and Wales to tackle discrimination,

:02:07. > :02:12.and they're promising 10,000 more staff working in NHS mental health

:02:13. > :02:14.treatment in England by 2020 - although how that's to be

:02:15. > :02:17.Here's Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt speaking

:02:18. > :02:25.There is a lot of new money going into it.

:02:26. > :02:28.In January, we said we were going to put an extra ?1 billion

:02:29. > :02:32.Does this come from other parts of the NHS, or is it

:02:33. > :02:35.No, it is new money going into the NHS

:02:36. > :02:42.It's not just of course money, it's having the people

:02:43. > :02:44.who deliver these jobs, which is why we need

:02:45. > :02:49.Well, we're joined now from Norwich by the Liberal Democrat health

:02:50. > :02:52.This weekend, they've launched their own health announcement,

:02:53. > :03:01.promising a 1% rise on every income tax band to fund the NHS.

:03:02. > :03:07.Do you welcome the Conservatives putting mental health onto the

:03:08. > :03:11.campaign agenda in the way that they have? I welcome it being on the

:03:12. > :03:16.campaign agenda but I do fear that the announcement is built on thin

:03:17. > :03:21.air. You raised the issue at the start about the 10,000 extra staff,

:03:22. > :03:25.and questions surrounding how it would be paid for. There is no

:03:26. > :03:32.additional money on what they have already announced for the NHS. We

:03:33. > :03:36.know it falls massively short on the expectation of the funding gap

:03:37. > :03:40.which, by 2020, is likely to be about 30 billion. That is not

:03:41. > :03:44.disputed now. Anyone outside of the government, wherever you are on the

:03:45. > :03:53.political spectrum, knows the money going in is simply not enough. So,

:03:54. > :03:58.rather like the claim that they would add 5000 GPs to the workforce

:03:59. > :04:03.by 2020, that is not on target. Latest figures show a fall in the

:04:04. > :04:07.number of GPs. They make these claims, but I'm afraid they are

:04:08. > :04:11.without substance, unless they are prepared to put money behind it.

:04:12. > :04:21.Your party's solution to the money problem is to put a 1% percentage

:04:22. > :04:27.point on all of the bands of income tax to raise more money 20-45. Is

:04:28. > :04:35.that unfair? Most pensioners who consume 40% of NHS spending, but

:04:36. > :04:39.over 65s only pay about 20% of income tax. Are you penalising the

:04:40. > :04:45.younger generations for the health care of an older generation? It is

:04:46. > :04:49.the first step in what we are describing as a 5-point recovery

:04:50. > :04:55.plan for the NHS and care system. So, for what is available to us now,

:04:56. > :04:59.it seems to be the fairest way of bringing in extra resources, income

:05:00. > :05:04.tax is progressive, and is based on your ability to pay for your average

:05:05. > :05:09.British worker. It would be ?3 per week which is the cost of less than

:05:10. > :05:14.two cups of coffee per week. In the longer run, we say that by the end

:05:15. > :05:21.of the next Parliament, we would be able to introduce a dedicated NHS

:05:22. > :05:26.and care tax. Based, probably, around a reformed national insurance

:05:27. > :05:31.system, so it becomes a dedicated NHS and care tax. Interestingly, the

:05:32. > :05:35.former permanent secretary of the Treasury, Nick MacPherson, said

:05:36. > :05:39.clearly that this idea merits further consideration which is the

:05:40. > :05:46.first time anyone for the Treasury has bought into the idea of this.

:05:47. > :05:49.Let me ask you this. You say it is a small amount of tax that people on

:05:50. > :05:53.average incomes will have to pay extra. We are talking about people

:05:54. > :06:00.who have seen no real increases to their income since 2007. They have

:06:01. > :06:05.been struggling to stand still in terms of their own pay, but you are

:06:06. > :06:09.going to add to their tax, and as I said earlier, most of the health

:06:10. > :06:15.care money will then go to pensioners whose incomes have risen

:06:16. > :06:19.by 15%. I'm interested in the fairness of this redistribution?

:06:20. > :06:23.Bearing in mind first of all, Andrew, that the raising of the tax

:06:24. > :06:29.threshold that the Liberal Democrats pushed through in the coalition

:06:30. > :06:35.increased the effective pay in your pocket for basic rate taxpayers by

:06:36. > :06:40.about ?1000. We are talking about a tiny fraction of that. I suppose

:06:41. > :06:44.that you do have to ask, all of us in this country need to ask

:06:45. > :06:48.ourselves this question... Are we prepared to pay, in terms of the

:06:49. > :06:54.average worker, about ?3 extra per week to give us a guarantee that

:06:55. > :06:59.when our loved ones need that care, in their hour of need, perhaps

:07:00. > :07:04.suspected cancer, that care will be available for them? I have heard two

:07:05. > :07:09.cases recently brought my attention. An elderly couple, the wife has a

:07:10. > :07:13.very bad hip. They could not allow the weight to continue. She was told

:07:14. > :07:18.that she would need to wait 26 weeks, she was in acute pain. They

:07:19. > :07:22.then deduct paying ?20,000 for private treatment to circumvent

:07:23. > :07:26.waiting time. They hated doing it, because they did not want to jump

:07:27. > :07:31.the queue. But that is what is increasingly happening. Sorry to

:07:32. > :07:38.interrupt, Norman Lamb comedy make very good points but we are short on

:07:39. > :07:41.time today. One final question, it looks like you might have the chance

:07:42. > :07:45.to do any of this, I'm told the best you can hope to do internally is to

:07:46. > :07:52.double the number of seats you have, which would only take you to 18. Do

:07:53. > :07:56.you think that promising to raise people's income tax, even those on

:07:57. > :08:00.average earnings, is a vote winner? I think the people in this country

:08:01. > :08:05.are crying out for politicians to be straight and tenet as it is. At the

:08:06. > :08:12.moment we heading towards a Conservative landslide... -- tell it

:08:13. > :08:17.as it is. But do we want a 1-party state? We are electing a government

:08:18. > :08:21.not only to deal with the crucial Brexit negotiations, but oversee the

:08:22. > :08:25.stewardship of the NHS and funding of our schools, all of these

:08:26. > :08:29.critical issues. We need an effective opposition and with the

:08:30. > :08:32.Labour Party having taken itself off stage, the Liberal Democrats need to

:08:33. > :08:34.provide an effective opposition. Norman Lamb, thank you for joining

:08:35. > :08:38.us this morning. Thank you. Labour and Tories are anxious

:08:39. > :08:42.to stress the general election result is not a foregone conclusion,

:08:43. > :08:46.whatever the polls say. Order you just heard Norman Lamb say

:08:47. > :08:48.there that he thought the Conservatives were heading for a

:08:49. > :08:51.landslide... But did Thursday's dramatic set

:08:52. > :08:53.of local election results in England, Scotland and Wales give

:08:54. > :08:57.us a better idea of how the country Here's Emma Vardy with

:08:58. > :09:00.a behind-the-scenes look at how Good morning, it's seven o'clock

:09:01. > :09:04.on Friday, May 5th... The dawn of another results day.

:09:05. > :09:09.Anticipation hung in the air. Early results from the local

:09:10. > :09:14.elections in England suggest there's been a substantial swing

:09:15. > :09:16.from Labour to the Conservatives. While the pros did their thing,

:09:17. > :09:20.I needed breakfast. Don't tell anyone, but I'm

:09:21. > :09:23.going to pinch a sausage. The overnight counts had delivered

:09:24. > :09:25.successes for the Tories. But with most councils

:09:26. > :09:26.only getting started, there was plenty of action

:09:27. > :09:32.still to come. It's not quite the night

:09:33. > :09:34.of Labour's nightmares. There's enough mixed news

:09:35. > :09:36.in Wales, for example - looks like they're about to hold

:09:37. > :09:40.Cardiff - that they'll try and put But in really simple terms,

:09:41. > :09:46.four weeks from a general election, the Tories are going forward

:09:47. > :09:49.and Labour are going backwards. How does it compare being

:09:50. > :09:54.in here to doing the telly? Huw, how do you prepare yourself

:09:55. > :10:00.for a long day of results, then? We're not even on air yet,

:10:01. > :10:06.as you can see, and already in Tory HQ this morning,

:10:07. > :10:09.there's a kind of, "Oh, I'm scared this will make people

:10:10. > :10:12.think the election's just I think leave it

:10:13. > :10:15.like that - perfect. I want the Laura look.

:10:16. > :10:18.This is really good, isn't it? Usually, we're in here

:10:19. > :10:22.for the Daily Politics. But it's been transformed

:10:23. > :10:27.for the Election Results programme. But hours went by without Ukip

:10:28. > :10:39.winning a single seat. The joke going around

:10:40. > :10:45.Lincolnshire County Council today from the Conservatives

:10:46. > :10:48.is that the Tories have eaten We will rebrand

:10:49. > :10:51.and come back strong. Morale, I think, is inevitably

:10:52. > :10:57.going to take a bit of a tumble. Particularly if Theresa May starts

:10:58. > :11:00.backsliding on Brexit. And then I think we will be

:11:01. > :11:02.totally reinvigorated. There are a lot of good people

:11:03. > :11:05.in Ukip and I wouldn't want to say anything unkind,

:11:06. > :11:08.but we all know it's over. Ukip press officer.

:11:09. > :11:12.Difficult job. Ukip weren't the only ones

:11:13. > :11:16.putting a brave face on it. Labour were experiencing

:11:17. > :11:19.their own disaster day too, losing hundreds of seats

:11:20. > :11:23.and seven councils. If the result is what these

:11:24. > :11:27.results appear to indicate, Can we have a quick word

:11:28. > :11:32.for the Sunday Politics? A quick question for Sunday Politics

:11:33. > :11:40.- how are you feeling? Downhearted or fired up for June?

:11:41. > :11:45.Fired up, absolutely fired up. He's fired up.

:11:46. > :11:47.We're going to go out there... We cannot go on with another

:11:48. > :11:49.five years of this. How's it been for you today?

:11:50. > :11:52.Tiring. It always is, but I love elections,

:11:53. > :11:55.I really enjoy them. Yes, you know, obviously we're

:11:56. > :11:59.disappointed at some of the results, it's been a mixed bag,

:12:00. > :12:01.but some opinion polls and commentators predicted we'd be

:12:02. > :12:07.wiped out - we haven't. As for the Lib Dems,

:12:08. > :12:09.not the resurgence they hoped for, After a dead heat in Northumberland,

:12:10. > :12:17.the control of a whole council came The section of England

:12:18. > :12:26.in which we had elections yesterday was the section of England

:12:27. > :12:30.that was most likely to vote Leave. When you go to sleep at night,

:12:31. > :12:33.do you just have election results The answer is if that's still

:12:34. > :12:39.happening, I don't get to sleep. There we go.

:12:40. > :12:41.Maybe practice some yoga... Thank you very much

:12:42. > :12:46.but I have one here. With the introduction

:12:47. > :12:49.of six regional mayors, Labour's Andy Burnham

:12:50. > :12:52.became Mr Manchester. But by the time Corbyn came

:12:53. > :12:55.to celebrate, the new mayor We want you to stay for a second

:12:56. > :13:01.because I've got some I used to present news,

:13:02. > :13:04.as you probably know. I used to present BBC

:13:05. > :13:06.Breakfast in the morning. The SNP had notable successes,

:13:07. > :13:09.ending 40 years of Labour What did you prefer -

:13:10. > :13:15.presenting or politics? And it certainly had been a hard day

:13:16. > :13:22.at the office for some. Ukip's foothold in local government

:13:23. > :13:26.was all but wiped out, leaving the Conservatives

:13:27. > :13:28.with their best local So another election results

:13:29. > :13:33.day draws to a close. But don't worry, we'll be doing it

:13:34. > :13:39.all again in five weeks' time. For now, though, that's your lot.

:13:40. > :13:51.Now let's look at some of Thursday's results in a little more detail,

:13:52. > :13:53.and what they might mean for the wider fortunes

:13:54. > :14:05.In England, there were elections for 34 councils.

:14:06. > :14:07.The Conservatives took control of ten of them,

:14:08. > :14:09.gaining over 300 seats, while Labour sustained

:14:10. > :14:14.While the Lib Dems lost 28 seats, Ukip came close to extinction,

:14:15. > :14:20.and can now boast of only one councillor in the whole of England.

:14:21. > :14:22.In Scotland, the big story was Labour losing

:14:23. > :14:25.a third of their seats, and control of three councils -

:14:26. > :14:27.while the Tories more than doubled their number of councillors.

:14:28. > :14:31.In Wales, both the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru made gains,

:14:32. > :14:37.There was some encouraging news for Jeremy Corbyn's party

:14:38. > :14:39.after Liverpool and Manchester both elected Labour mayors,

:14:40. > :14:46.although the Tories narrowly won the West Midlands mayoral race.

:14:47. > :14:49.We're joined now by who else but elections expert John Curtice.

:14:50. > :14:53.You saw him in Emma's film, he's now back in Glasgow.

:14:54. > :15:06.In broad terms, what do these local election results tell us about the

:15:07. > :15:11.general election result? First we have to remember what Theresa May

:15:12. > :15:14.wants to achieve in the general election is a landslide, and winning

:15:15. > :15:19.a landslide means you have to win big in terms of votes. The local

:15:20. > :15:22.election results certainly suggest Theresa May is well on course to win

:15:23. > :15:27.the general election, at least with four weeks to go, and of course

:15:28. > :15:30.people could change their minds. We all agree the Conservatives were

:15:31. > :15:35.double-digit figures ahead of Labour in these elections. However, whereas

:15:36. > :15:43.the opinion polls on average at the moment suggest there is a 17 point

:15:44. > :15:44.Conservative lead, and that definitely would deliver a

:15:45. > :15:47.landslide, it seems the local election figures, at least in

:15:48. > :15:51.England, are pointing to something close to an 11 point Conservative

:15:52. > :15:57.lead. That increase would not necessarily deliver a landslide that

:15:58. > :16:01.she wants. The truth is, the next four weeks are probably not about

:16:02. > :16:05.who wins this election unless something dramatic changes, but

:16:06. > :16:08.there is still a battle as to whether or not Theresa May achieves

:16:09. > :16:13.her objective of winning a landslide. She has to win big. The

:16:14. > :16:17.local elections as she is not sure to be there, and therefore she is

:16:18. > :16:21.going to have to campaign hard. Equally, while Labour did have most

:16:22. > :16:26.prospect of winning, they still at least at the goal of trying to keep

:16:27. > :16:30.the conservative majority relatively low, and therefore the Parliamentary

:16:31. > :16:34.Labour Party are alive and kicking. Interesting that the local election

:16:35. > :16:38.results don't produce a landslide if replicated on June 8th, but when I

:16:39. > :16:44.looked at when local elections had taken place a month before the

:16:45. > :16:49.general election, it was in 1983 and 1987. The Tories did well in both

:16:50. > :16:52.local elections in these years, but come the general election, they

:16:53. > :16:57.added five points to their share of the vote. No reason it should happen

:16:58. > :17:01.again, but if it did, that would take them into landslide territory.

:17:02. > :17:05.Absolutely right, if they do five points better than the local

:17:06. > :17:11.elections, they are in landslide territory. We have to remember, in

:17:12. > :17:16.1983, the Labour Party ran an inept campaign and their support ballet.

:17:17. > :17:22.In 1987, David Owen and David Steele could not keep to the same lines. --

:17:23. > :17:25.their support fell away. That underlines how well the opposition

:17:26. > :17:29.campaign in the next four weeks does potentially matter in terms of

:17:30. > :17:33.Theresa May's ability to achieve their objective. It is worth

:17:34. > :17:38.noticing in the opinion polls, two things have happened, first, Ukip

:17:39. > :17:41.voters, a significant slice going to the Conservatives, which helped to

:17:42. > :17:44.increase the Conservative leader in the bowels. But in the last week,

:17:45. > :17:50.the Labour vote seems to have recovered. -- in the polls. So the

:17:51. > :17:56.party is not that far short of what Ed Miliband got in 2015, so the

:17:57. > :18:00.Conservative leader is back down to 16 or 17, as we started. So we

:18:01. > :18:06.should not necessarily presume Labour are going to go backwards in

:18:07. > :18:11.the way they did in 1983. I want to finish by asking if there are deeper

:18:12. > :18:13.forces at work? Whether the referendum in this country is

:18:14. > :18:17.producing a realignment in British politics. The Scottish referendum

:18:18. > :18:23.has produced a kind of realignment in Scotland. And in a different way,

:18:24. > :18:30.the Brexit referendum has produced a realignment in England and Wales. Do

:18:31. > :18:33.you agree? You are quite right. Referendums are potentially

:18:34. > :18:36.disruptive in Scotland, they helped to ensure the constitutional

:18:37. > :18:41.question became the central issue, and the 45% who voted yes our been

:18:42. > :18:45.faithful to the SNP since. Although the SNP put in a relatively

:18:46. > :18:50.disappointing performance in Scotland on Thursday. Equally, south

:18:51. > :18:53.of the border, on the leave side, in the past 12 months and particularly

:18:54. > :18:58.the last few weeks, the Conservatives have corralled the

:18:59. > :19:03.leave vote, about two thirds of those who voted leave now say they

:19:04. > :19:07.will vote Conservative. Last summer, the figure was only 50%. On the

:19:08. > :19:17.remain side, the vote is still fragmented. The reason why Theresa

:19:18. > :19:21.May is in the strong position she is is not simply because the leave vote

:19:22. > :19:29.has been realigned, but the remain vote has not. Thank you for joining

:19:30. > :19:33.us. You can go through polls and wonder who is up and down, but I

:19:34. > :19:38.wonder whether the Scottish and Brexit referendums have produced

:19:39. > :19:45.fundamental changes. In Scotland, the real division now is between the

:19:46. > :19:49.centre-left Nationalist party and the centre-right Unionist party.

:19:50. > :19:54.That has had the consequence of squeezing out Labour in the

:19:55. > :19:59.argument, never mind the Greens and the Lib Dems. In London, England,

:20:00. > :20:04.Wales, the Brexit referendum seems to have produced a realignment of

:20:05. > :20:14.the right to the Tories' advantage, and some trouble for the Labour blue

:20:15. > :20:20.vote -- blue-collar vote. It works for the pro Brexit end of the

:20:21. > :20:24.spectrum but not the other half. In the last century, we had people like

:20:25. > :20:27.Roy Jenkins dreaming of and writing about the realignment of British

:20:28. > :20:31.politics as though it could be consciously engineered, and in fact

:20:32. > :20:36.what made it happen was just the calling of a referendum. It's not

:20:37. > :20:39.something you can put about as a politician, it flows from below,

:20:40. > :20:45.when the public begin to think of politics in terms of single issues,

:20:46. > :20:49.dominant issues, such as leaving the European Union. Rather than a broad

:20:50. > :20:54.spectrum designed by a political class. I wonder whether now Remain

:20:55. > :20:58.have it in them to coalesce behind a single party. It doesn't look like

:20:59. > :21:01.they can do it behind Labour. The Liberal Democrats are frankly too

:21:02. > :21:06.small in Parliament to constitute that kind of force. The closest

:21:07. > :21:11.thing to a powerful Remain party is the SNP which by definition has

:21:12. > :21:17.limited appeal south of the border. It is hard. The realignment. We

:21:18. > :21:21.don't know if it is permanent or how dramatic it will be, but there is

:21:22. > :21:25.some kind of realignment going on. At the moment, it seems to be a

:21:26. > :21:30.realignment that by and large is to the benefit of the Conservatives.

:21:31. > :21:33.Without a doubt, and that can be directly attributed to the

:21:34. > :21:36.disappearance of Ukip from the political landscape. I have been

:21:37. > :21:41.saying since the referendum that I thought Ukip was finished. They

:21:42. > :21:45.still seem to be staggering on under the illusion... Some people may have

:21:46. > :21:49.picked up on Nigel Farage this morning saying that Ukip still had a

:21:50. > :21:53.strong role to play until Brexit actually happens. But I think it's

:21:54. > :21:57.very, very hard to convince the voters of that, because they feel

:21:58. > :22:00.that, with the result of the referendum, that was Ukip's job

:22:01. > :22:05.done. And those votes are not going to delay the party -- to the Labour

:22:06. > :22:11.Party because of the flaws with Jeremy Corbyn's leadership, they are

:22:12. > :22:15.shifting to the Tories. I agree. The key issue was the referendum. It has

:22:16. > :22:20.produced a fundamental change that few predicted at the time it was

:22:21. > :22:24.called. Most fundamental of all, it has brought about a unity in the

:22:25. > :22:28.Conservative Party. With some exceptions, but they are now off

:22:29. > :22:34.editing the Evening Standard and other things! This is now a party

:22:35. > :22:39.united around Brexit. Since 1992, the Tories have been split over

:22:40. > :22:42.Europe, at times fatally so. The referendum, in ways that David

:22:43. > :22:47.Cameron did not anticipate, has brought about a united front for

:22:48. > :22:51.this election. In a way, this is a sequel to the referendum, because

:22:52. > :22:54.it's about Brexit but we still don't know what form Brexit is going to

:22:55. > :23:01.take. By calling it early, Theresa May has in effect got another go at

:23:02. > :23:05.a kind of Brexit referendum without knowing what Brexit is, with a

:23:06. > :23:07.united Tory party behind her. We shall see if it is a blip or a

:23:08. > :23:10.long-term trend in British politics. Now let's turn to Labour's big

:23:11. > :23:12.campaign announcement today, and that was the promise of no

:23:13. > :23:15.income tax rise for those earning less than ?80,000 -

:23:16. > :23:18.which of course means those earning more than that could

:23:19. > :23:20.face an increase. Here's Shadow Chancellor John

:23:21. > :23:29.McDonell on the BBC earlier. What we are saying today, anyone

:23:30. > :23:34.earning below ?80,000, we will guarantee you will not have an

:23:35. > :23:37.increase in income tax, VAT or national insurance contributions.

:23:38. > :23:42.For those above 80,000, we are asking them to pay a modest bit more

:23:43. > :23:46.to fund our public services. A modest bit. You will see it will be

:23:47. > :23:53.a modest increase. Talking about modest increases, so we can have a

:23:54. > :23:55.society which we believe everyone shares the benefits of.

:23:56. > :24:00.We're joined now by Shadow Justice Secretary Richard Burgon, in Leeds.

:24:01. > :24:07.Mr McDonnell stressed that for those earning over 80,000, they would be

:24:08. > :24:11.paying more but it would be modest. He used the word modest 45 times.

:24:12. > :24:18.But there is only 1.2 million of them. -- 4-5 times. So that would

:24:19. > :24:25.not raise much money. This is about the key part of this tax policy for

:24:26. > :24:28.the many, not the few. We are saying that low earners and middle earners

:24:29. > :24:32.won't be paying more tax under a Labour government, which is not a

:24:33. > :24:36.policy the Conservatives have committed to yet. As John McDonnell

:24:37. > :24:43.also said in his interview earlier, if there is a tax rise on the top 5%

:24:44. > :24:48.of earners, earning over ?80,000, it would be a modest rise. I am trying

:24:49. > :24:55.to work out what that would mean in terms of money. If it is too modest,

:24:56. > :24:58.you don't raise much. What will happen is the Labour Party's

:24:59. > :25:03.manifesto, published in the next couple of weeks, wilfully set out

:25:04. > :25:13.and cost it. I can't make an announcement now. -- will fully set

:25:14. > :25:16.out and cost it. Moving on to the local elections, Mr Corbyn says he

:25:17. > :25:21.is closing the gap with the Tories. What evidence is there? John Curtis

:25:22. > :25:27.just said there was an 11% gap in the results, Labour 11% behind. The

:25:28. > :25:32.polls before that suggested Labour were anything up to 20% behind. Was

:25:33. > :25:38.it a great day for Labour? Certainly not. Is there a lot to do between

:25:39. > :25:43.now and June? Sure, but we are relishing every moment of that.

:25:44. > :25:47.Comparing equivalent elections in 2013, the Tories increased their

:25:48. > :25:57.share of the vote by 13%. You lost 2%. That's a net of 15%. In what way

:25:58. > :26:04.is that closing the gap? We have gone down to 11 points behind. Am I

:26:05. > :26:08.satisfied? Certainly not. Is Labour satisfied? Certainly not. A week is

:26:09. > :26:13.a long time in politics, 4-5 weeks is even longer. The local elections

:26:14. > :26:17.are over, the general election campaign is starting, and we want to

:26:18. > :26:22.put out there the policies that will improve the lives of low and middle

:26:23. > :26:27.income earners. And also many people looking to be well off as well. You

:26:28. > :26:33.lost 133 seats in Scotland. Are you closing the gap in Scotland? The

:26:34. > :26:36.journey back for Labour in Scotland, I always thought, wouldn't be an

:26:37. > :26:41.easy one. Since the council election results and Scotland that we are

:26:42. > :26:45.comparing this to, there has been an independence referendum and the

:26:46. > :26:49.terrible results for Labour in the 2015 general election. So it is a

:26:50. > :26:53.challenge, but one hundreds of thousands of Labour members are

:26:54. > :26:56.determined to meet. That is why we're talking about bread and butter

:26:57. > :27:04.policies to make people's lives better. These local elections took

:27:05. > :27:10.place midtown. Normally mid-term was the worst time for a government. --

:27:11. > :27:15.took place midterm. And the best for an opposition. That is a feature of

:27:16. > :27:20.British politics. So why did you lose 382 councillors in a midterm

:27:21. > :27:25.election? As Andy Burnham said when he gave his acceptance speech after

:27:26. > :27:31.his terrific first ballot result win in Manchester, it was an evening of

:27:32. > :27:35.mixed results for Labour. Generally bad, wasn't it? Why did you lose all

:27:36. > :27:40.of these councillors midterm? It is not a welcome result for Labour, I

:27:41. > :27:45.am not going to be deluded. But what I and the Labour Party are focused

:27:46. > :27:49.on is the next four weeks. And how we are going to put across policies

:27:50. > :27:55.like free school meals for primary school children, ?10 an hour minimum

:27:56. > :28:00.wage, the pledge not to increase tax for low and middle earners, 95% of

:28:01. > :28:04.earners in this country. And saving the NHS from privatisation and

:28:05. > :28:08.funding it properly. These are just some of the policies, including by

:28:09. > :28:13.the way a boost in carers' allowance, that will make the lives

:28:14. > :28:19.of people in Britain better off. Labour are for the many, not for the

:28:20. > :28:23.few. But people like from political parties aspiring to government is to

:28:24. > :28:27.be united and to be singing from the same song sheet among the leaders.

:28:28. > :28:31.You mentioned Andy Burnham. Why did he not join Mr Corbyn when Jeremy

:28:32. > :28:37.Corbyn went to the rally in Manchester on Friday to celebrate

:28:38. > :28:41.his victory? First of all, Andy Burnham did a radio interview

:28:42. > :28:44.straight after his great victory in which he said Jeremy Corbyn helped

:28:45. > :28:51.him to win votes in that election. Why didn't he turn up? As to the

:28:52. > :28:57.reason Andy Burnham wasn't there at the meeting Jeremy was doing in

:28:58. > :29:00.Manchester, it was because, I understand, Andy was booked into

:29:01. > :29:04.celebrate his victory with his family that night. I don't begrudge

:29:05. > :29:07.him that and hopefully you don't. The leader has made the effort to

:29:08. > :29:11.travel to Manchester to celebrate one of the few victories you enjoyed

:29:12. > :29:17.on Thursday, surely you would join the leader and celebrate together?

:29:18. > :29:21.Well, I don't regard, and I am sure you don't, Andy Burnham a nice time

:29:22. > :29:28.with his family... -- I don't begrudge. He made it clear Jeremy

:29:29. > :29:35.Corbyn assisted him. I can see you are not convinced yourself. I am

:29:36. > :29:40.convinced. The outgoing Labour leader in Derbyshire lost his seat

:29:41. > :29:45.on Thursday, you lost Derbyshire, which was a surprise in itself... He

:29:46. > :29:50.said that genuine party supporters said they were not voting Labour

:29:51. > :29:56.while you have Jeremy Corbyn as leader. Are you hearing that on the

:29:57. > :30:00.doorstep too? I have been knocking on hundreds of doors this week in my

:30:01. > :30:04.constituency and elsewhere. And of course, you never get every single

:30:05. > :30:10.voter thinking the leader of any political party is the greatest

:30:11. > :30:14.thing since sliced bread. But it's only on a minority of doorsteps that

:30:15. > :30:19.people are criticising the Labour leader. Most people aren't even

:30:20. > :30:24.talking about these questions. Most people are talking about Jeremy

:30:25. > :30:30.Corbyn's policies, free primary school meals, ?10 an hour minimum

:30:31. > :30:33.wage. Also policies such as paternity pay, maternity pay and

:30:34. > :30:37.sickness pay for the self-employed, that have been hard-pressed under

:30:38. > :30:40.this government. So I don't recognise that pitch of despondency,

:30:41. > :30:46.but I understand that in different areas, in local elections,

:30:47. > :30:50.perspectives are different. That was Derbyshire. The outgoing Labour

:30:51. > :30:53.leader of Nottinghamshire County Council said there was concern on

:30:54. > :30:58.the doorstep about whether Jeremy Corbyn was the right person to lead

:30:59. > :31:03.the Labour Party, and even Rotherham, loyal to Mr Corbyn, won

:31:04. > :31:09.the mail contest in Liverpool, he said that the Labour leader was more

:31:10. > :31:13.might on the doorstep. -- the mayor contest. Does that explain some of

:31:14. > :31:17.the performance on Thursday? I am confident that in the next four

:31:18. > :31:22.weeks, when we get into coverage on television, that people will see

:31:23. > :31:26.further the kind of open leadership Jeremy provides. In contrast to

:31:27. > :31:30.Theresa May's refusal to meet ordinary people. She came to my

:31:31. > :31:34.constituency and I don't think that a single person who lives here. And

:31:35. > :31:38.also she is ducking the chance to debate with Jeremy Corbyn on TV. She

:31:39. > :31:44.should do it and let the people decide. I don't know why she won't.

:31:45. > :31:49.Finally, the Labour mantra is that you are the party of the ordinary

:31:50. > :32:02.people, why is it the case that among what advertisers call C2s, D

:32:03. > :32:08.and E', how can you on the pulse of that social group, how can you do

:32:09. > :32:12.that? Our policy is to assist, protect and improve the living

:32:13. > :32:15.standards of people in those groups and our policy is to protect the

:32:16. > :32:20.living standards of the majority... They do not seem to be convinced? We

:32:21. > :32:22.have four weeks to convince them and I believe that we will. Thank you

:32:23. > :32:25.for coming onto the programme. But the wooden spoon from Thursday's

:32:26. > :32:31.elections undoubtedly went to Ukip. Four years ago the party

:32:32. > :32:33.won its best ever local government performance,

:32:34. > :32:35.but this time its support just Ukip's share of the vote

:32:36. > :32:38.plunging by as much as 18 points, most obviously

:32:39. > :32:42.benefiting the Conservatives. So is it all over for

:32:43. > :32:44.the self-styled people's army? Well we're joined now

:32:45. > :32:46.by the party's leader in the Welsh Assembly,

:32:47. > :32:57.Neil Hamilton, he's in Cardiff. Neil Hamilton, welcome. Ukip

:32:58. > :33:01.finished local elections gaining the same number of councillors as the

:33:02. > :33:07.Rubbish Party, one. That sums up your prospects, doesn't

:33:08. > :33:13.it? Rubbish? We have been around a long time and seemed that I'd go

:33:14. > :33:18.out, go in again, we will keep calm and carry on. We are in a phoney

:33:19. > :33:21.war, negotiations on Brexit have not started but what we know from

:33:22. > :33:25.Theresa May is that in seven years, as Home Secretary and Prime

:33:26. > :33:29.Minister, she has completely failed to control immigration which was one

:33:30. > :33:35.of the great driving forces behind the Brexit result. I'm not really

:33:36. > :33:38.looking for any great success in immigration from the Tories, and a

:33:39. > :33:43.lot of people who have previously voted for Ukip will be back in our

:33:44. > :33:49.part of the field again. They don't seem to care about that at the

:33:50. > :33:54.moment, your party lost 147 council seats. You gain one. It is time to

:33:55. > :33:58.shut up shop, isn't it? You are right, the voters are not focusing

:33:59. > :34:01.on other domestic issues at the moment. They have made up their

:34:02. > :34:07.minds going into these negotiations in Brussels, Theresa May, as Prime

:34:08. > :34:11.Minister, needs as much support as she can get. I think they are wrong

:34:12. > :34:17.in this respect, it would be better to have a cohort of Ukip MPs to back

:34:18. > :34:23.her up. She was greatly helped by the intervention of Mr Juncker last

:34:24. > :34:27.week as well, the stupidity in how the European Commission has tried to

:34:28. > :34:29.bully the British government, in those circumstances the British

:34:30. > :34:35.people will react in one way going the opposite way to what the

:34:36. > :34:39.Brussels establishment one. She has been fortunate as an acute tactician

:34:40. > :34:43.in having the election now. I struggle to see the way back for

:34:44. > :34:47.your party. You aren't a threat to the Tories in the south. Ukip voters

:34:48. > :34:52.are flocking to the Tories in the south. You don't threaten Labour in

:34:53. > :34:56.the north. It is the Tories who threaten Labour now in the north.

:34:57. > :35:01.There is no room to progress, is there? The reality will be is that

:35:02. > :35:06.once we are back on the domestic agenda again, and the Brexit

:35:07. > :35:11.negotiations are concluded, we will know what the outcome is. And the

:35:12. > :35:15.focus will be on bread and butter issues. We have all sorts of

:35:16. > :35:21.policies in our programme which other parties cannot match us on.

:35:22. > :35:25.The talk is putting up taxes to help the health service, we would scrap

:35:26. > :35:28.the foreign aid budget and put another ?8 billion in the health

:35:29. > :35:33.service, no other party says that. These policies would be popular with

:35:34. > :35:35.the ordinary working person. Is Paul Nuttall to blame on the

:35:36. > :35:38.the ordinary working person. Is Paul Nuttall to blame on the meltdown of

:35:39. > :35:42.what happened, no matter who is leader? These are cosmic forces

:35:43. > :35:46.beyond the control of any individual at the moment, it is certainly not

:35:47. > :35:52.Paul Nuttall's .com he's been in the job for six months and in half that

:35:53. > :35:57.time he was fighting a by-election -- certainly not Paul Nuttall's

:35:58. > :36:00.fault. We have two become more professional than we have been

:36:01. > :36:05.recently. It has not been a brilliant year for Ukip one way or

:36:06. > :36:09.another, as you know, but there are prospects, in future, that are very

:36:10. > :36:13.rosy. I do not believe that the Tories will deliver on other

:36:14. > :36:17.promises that they are now making. The Welsh assembly elections are not

:36:18. > :36:21.until 2021, you are a member of that, but at that point you will not

:36:22. > :36:27.have any MEPs, because we will be out on the timetable. With this

:36:28. > :36:33.current showing he will have no end', you could be Ukip's most

:36:34. > :36:41.senior elected representative. That would be a turnout for the books! --

:36:42. > :36:45.no elected MPs. The Tories are not promoting the policies that I

:36:46. > :36:50.believe them. You will see that in the Ukip manifesto when it is

:36:51. > :37:01.shortly publish... Leaders talk mainly about the male genital

:37:02. > :37:05.mutilation and is -- female and burqas. No, when the manifesto

:37:06. > :37:12.launched, we have a lot of policies, I spoke moments ago about it, but

:37:13. > :37:17.also on foreign aid. Scrapping green taxes, to cut people's electricity

:37:18. > :37:25.bills by ?300 per year on average. There are a lot of popular policies

:37:26. > :37:29.that we have. We will hear more from that in the weeks to come.

:37:30. > :37:34.Paul Nuttall said "If the price of written leaving the year is a Tory

:37:35. > :37:39.advance after taking up this patriarch course, it is a price that

:37:40. > :37:43.Ukip is prepared to pay". That sounds like a surrender statement?

:37:44. > :37:49.It is a statement of fact, the main agenda is to get out of the EU and

:37:50. > :37:55.have full Brexit. That is why Ukip came into existence 20 years ago.

:37:56. > :37:59.When it is achieved, we go back to the normal political battle lines.

:38:00. > :38:03.Niall Hamilton in Cardiff, thank you very much for joining us.

:38:04. > :38:05.It's just gone 11.35am, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:38:06. > :38:08.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now

:38:09. > :38:17.Coming up here in 20 minutes - we'll be talking about the French

:38:18. > :38:19.Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics in Northern Ireland.

:38:20. > :38:21.With just under five weeks to polling day,

:38:22. > :38:23.will the election be all about Brexit

:38:24. > :38:26.or will other issues start to dominate the agenda?

:38:27. > :38:29.And what are the main concerns of our smaller parties?

:38:30. > :38:31.We'll hear from the Green Party and People Before Profit

:38:32. > :38:37.Plus, in another election, the French head to the polls

:38:38. > :38:40.in the second and decisive round in the Presidential election.

:38:41. > :38:43.What impact will the new President have on the rest of Europe?

:38:44. > :38:46.And with their thoughts on that and more, my guests of the day

:38:47. > :38:57.and public affairs consultant Anna Mercer.

:38:58. > :38:59.At the last Westminster election, issues like abortion,

:39:00. > :39:03.austerity and same sex marriage dominated a lot of the campaign.

:39:04. > :39:05.Some argued that sense of 'normality' helped

:39:06. > :39:09.the Green Party and People Before Profit perform well.

:39:10. > :39:11.But with Brexit dominating the campaign and stalemate

:39:12. > :39:14.at Stormont, can they repeat the success of two years ago?

:39:15. > :39:16.Joining me now are the Green Party's Georgina Milne

:39:17. > :39:18.and Gerry Carroll from People Before Profit -

:39:19. > :39:21.and, by the way, we did invite the TUV

:39:22. > :39:23.to take part in today's discussion,

:39:24. > :39:36.George, the first of all, you campaign did not get off to the best

:39:37. > :39:39.of starts, arguably, as your leader seemed to tie himself in knots at

:39:40. > :39:46.the prospect of a packed with Andy Brexit parties. Have you managed to

:39:47. > :39:51.put that behind you? I would disagree that the dog of packed boys

:39:52. > :39:55.in anyway negative. I think discussing the possibility of April

:39:56. > :39:58.remain alliance was the just and democratic thing to do. Whenever

:39:59. > :40:01.that came back to the Green party Executive, we decided a pact would

:40:02. > :40:05.not be right for us but I think we did the right thing in considering

:40:06. > :40:09.it and we just think it is unfortunate that some parties did

:40:10. > :40:13.try to sectarian eyes the issue. Any chance of a pact came to a halt when

:40:14. > :40:18.the SDLP decided to select its sitting LP as its candidate in south

:40:19. > :40:21.Belfast. Did you really think that he would step aside for Claire

:40:22. > :40:27.Bailey when he had polled four times her vote to Mike years ago? That is

:40:28. > :40:31.what Steve Matthew suggested. I think regarding the pact in south

:40:32. > :40:38.Belfast, one of the most difficult issues for the Green Party, with a

:40:39. > :40:43.long and unbroken record of championing LGBT and women's rights,

:40:44. > :40:47.would be asking Green supporters to get behind a candidate who did not

:40:48. > :40:51.see those issues are the same way the Green Party would. Alistair

:40:52. > :40:54.MacDonald accused the Green Party of scratching around looking for

:40:55. > :40:58.relevance at the time of all of the discussion about pact in south

:40:59. > :41:00.Belfast. Did that hurt? I do not think it hurt. It was the right

:41:01. > :41:04.thing to do to consider it. The Green Party have long been champions

:41:05. > :41:08.of grassroots democracy and we did the right thing in considering the

:41:09. > :41:11.pack. However, we did come to the conclusion it would not work for us

:41:12. > :41:13.and this time around, we are very pleased to be fielding seven

:41:14. > :41:28.candidates in the election. So what are the main issues for

:41:29. > :41:30.those seven candidates? Undoubtedly Brexit is a key, critical priority

:41:31. > :41:32.issue. Make no mistake, Tory austerity and equality will be key

:41:33. > :41:35.issues on the agenda and key issues that the Green Party will be

:41:36. > :41:38.campaigning on. A very powerful, positive and strong message. The

:41:39. > :41:41.issues. Brexit, equality and social justice issues will be on

:41:42. > :41:45.everybody's lips. What about those moral issues that

:41:46. > :41:49.you can bid for strong Lyon on previous elections, they followed by

:41:50. > :41:52.the wayside? Become an absolutely not, that dive into quality, which

:41:53. > :41:58.the Green Party have long been champions of. We are proud to listen

:41:59. > :42:01.to women, stand up for 's rights, LGBT rates, marriage equality. We

:42:02. > :42:05.were the first party to bring marriage equality to the Assembly

:42:06. > :42:10.and will not let that poll by the wayside. The Greens are running

:42:11. > :42:15.seven candidates. So far, People Before Profit have announced two. Is

:42:16. > :42:21.that it is far as you're concerned? We are on two at the minute and we

:42:22. > :42:23.are meeting in the next few days to confirm where we are standing and

:42:24. > :42:27.the full list of candidates will be decided. It is worth seeing, we have

:42:28. > :42:33.had the elections in a year. We are a small party without corporate

:42:34. > :42:35.donations, we do not receive donations from rich Irish-American

:42:36. > :42:39.capitalists and the elections in a year is tough for a party with

:42:40. > :42:43.limited resources. We will be throwing herself into this election

:42:44. > :42:46.and providing an alternative, but there may be an election, and

:42:47. > :42:49.Assembly election, in October as well and that puts pressure on small

:42:50. > :42:53.parties who do not have the resources of some other big parties

:42:54. > :42:57.but we are up for standing in this election. Georgina has told us what

:42:58. > :43:03.the key issues of the Green Party. What are the big issues for People

:43:04. > :43:06.Before Profit? What will you be discussing with potential voters on

:43:07. > :43:08.the doorsteps? A lot of things. Talking about Brexit, they should

:43:09. > :43:13.not be a hard border into limited and Theresa May should not be

:43:14. > :43:16.allowed to use Brexit as a way to advance her agenda, to further boost

:43:17. > :43:23.on taxes for corporations, to attack workers' rights and attack other

:43:24. > :43:27.things. Also this is about austerity, as Georgina said. How

:43:28. > :43:30.austerity has devastated communities and public services. We will be

:43:31. > :43:34.providing an alternative voice in the selection that is going to stand

:43:35. > :43:38.up for voters, communities and public services. I said quite

:43:39. > :43:41.clearly, they are cutting taxes for corporations and are trying to kill

:43:42. > :43:46.off that there is no money for public services. It is a question

:43:47. > :43:48.about priorities and what is more important, cutting taxes for the

:43:49. > :43:52.rich and corporations are putting money into health and education.

:43:53. > :43:55.Also the issue of mental health crisis in our society. We will be

:43:56. > :44:00.providing a strong message on this in our election. Their prime Minster

:44:01. > :44:04.fundamentally citizens about Brexit. It is likely to come up the

:44:05. > :44:08.doorsteps, as far as People Before Profit are concerned, if for no

:44:09. > :44:11.other reason than because you prepared to flip-flop dramatically.

:44:12. > :44:15.First, you campaigned for Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK to

:44:16. > :44:19.leave the EU and now plan to fight them on an anti-Tory Brexit

:44:20. > :44:27.platform. What precisely is People Before Profit's message on Brexit?

:44:28. > :44:30.Are you pro-Brexit or Andy Brexit? We are against a Tory Brexit.

:44:31. > :44:33.Theresa May is using it to trying to advance the interests of the British

:44:34. > :44:37.elite, the rich and the wealthy in society. What does that actually

:44:38. > :44:41.mean? Never mind Tory Brexit, what is your position on Brexit? You said

:44:42. > :44:44.it was a good idea and campaigned for it, along with elements on the

:44:45. > :44:52.Tory party. It is now happening and you do not like the she bothered? We

:44:53. > :44:55.are for leaving the EU and had a unique position which was arguing

:44:56. > :44:58.that the EU has created austerity for people in Ireland, people in

:44:59. > :45:02.Greece. That was our critique and our opposition to the EU. Regardless

:45:03. > :45:05.of whether people go to remain relief in the EU, the question is

:45:06. > :45:10.are people going to stand up against the hard border, are against Theresa

:45:11. > :45:14.May's attacks and her plans to implement further tax cuts for

:45:15. > :45:17.corporation? We are standing against that and it is worth seeing that

:45:18. > :45:21.David Cameron would have pursued that, a stronger case for that, if

:45:22. > :45:25.he had added weight and got to remain on board. In this election,

:45:26. > :45:28.we are putting forward an anti-Tory Brexit argument and arguing against

:45:29. > :45:34.what the Tories are pushing. Do you still think Brexit is a good idea? I

:45:35. > :45:37.think leaving the European Union was the correct decision but what has to

:45:38. > :45:39.happen now is people should be putting forward a strong argument

:45:40. > :45:44.against a Tory Brexit. That is what the Tories are trying to do. Theresa

:45:45. > :45:49.May is trying to shake Brexit in the interests of the capitalists and

:45:50. > :45:53.ruling elite. Your gritters also, always said that if you put or

:45:54. > :45:55.delete it could be had Brexit, but despite those warnings, he said it

:45:56. > :45:58.was a good idea and people voted for it. You said the vote should be

:45:59. > :46:01.respected and you now seem to be going back on that? We are very

:46:02. > :46:04.clear. We were always against the Tory Brexit. We were clear in the

:46:05. > :46:10.referendum campaign that we were against the Tory Brexit and what the

:46:11. > :46:13.Tory party were pursuing. We were clear enough and against what they

:46:14. > :46:15.are trying to do now. Stand up against a hard border, stand up

:46:16. > :46:20.against the austerity agenda and we can still do that whilst critiquing

:46:21. > :46:25.the EU policies and how the EU has actually implemented the policies on

:46:26. > :46:29.the rich and only all across Europe and devastated austerity for people

:46:30. > :46:32.in Ireland and Greece. We want to see a different kind of Europe as

:46:33. > :46:38.that is not going to come from the EU bureaucrats or the jury party.

:46:39. > :46:42.Georgina, you're also a candidate. -- the Tory party. Is the issue of

:46:43. > :46:46.Brexit coming up? Are people concerned from either side of the

:46:47. > :46:49.fence, depending how they voted and copy the things unfolding, I've

:46:50. > :46:53.concerned that what might lie ahead in the next couple of years?

:46:54. > :46:57.Absolutely. When David Cameron and the Tory Government machine brought

:46:58. > :47:00.us to the polls last year for this referendum, nobody knew what we were

:47:01. > :47:04.voting for. For that reason, the Green Party are campaigning for a

:47:05. > :47:12.referendum on the terms of the final Brexit deal. That will essentially

:47:13. > :47:15.mean that all people can have their say on what their vision of Brexit

:47:16. > :47:17.is, as opposed to blindly following Theresa May and the Tory vision of a

:47:18. > :47:21.hard Brexit said she is hell-bent on. I wonder how much common ground

:47:22. > :47:23.there is between your party and People Before Profit. He says he

:47:24. > :47:28.does not want a Theresa May Stell Brexit. You do not want a Theresa

:47:29. > :47:32.May style Brexit either. Though Jerry Carroll says he still thinks

:47:33. > :47:36.we should leave the EU, you think, despite not wanting a hard Brexit,

:47:37. > :47:40.we need to find some alternative way. It is very confusing for

:47:41. > :47:43.people, let's be honest. Absolutely. The Green Party campaigned to remain

:47:44. > :47:48.and we would very much like to see what, -- like to see, whatever

:47:49. > :47:52.happens, that people get their final say on that deal. A hard border

:47:53. > :47:56.would be disastrous for the communities that live around that

:47:57. > :47:59.and for the agricultural industry. I want a quick word about Stormont,

:48:00. > :48:03.because this is a Westminster general election. Jerry, you were

:48:04. > :48:06.returned as an MLA at the last Assembly election a few short weeks

:48:07. > :48:11.ago, it has to be said. We may have another before too long, perhaps in

:48:12. > :48:15.the autumn. Is it very, very hard for the small parties to find

:48:16. > :48:20.relevance in a general election, when Stormont is in stalemate?

:48:21. > :48:23.Obviously it is difficult circumstances but in terms of the

:48:24. > :48:26.Westminster election, we can provide an alternative voice. We can be a

:48:27. > :48:30.voice for the voiceless and can represent the millions and not the

:48:31. > :48:34.millionaires in this election. By raising these issues, but not

:48:35. > :48:39.seriously by winning there? It is possible. People did not predict the

:48:40. > :48:43.EU referendum... It is possible but not probable. Polls cannot be

:48:44. > :48:47.everything. What people are looking for is an alternative voice. In this

:48:48. > :48:50.election, I would be the only viable candidate.

:48:51. > :48:55.If you want your seat, would you take it? I would. How relevant is

:48:56. > :49:03.the politics of the Green Party during a general election, where

:49:04. > :49:05.you're running seven candidates, it is not impossible but unlikely that

:49:06. > :49:09.you will win a Westminster seat. Let's be clear. We are running seven

:49:10. > :49:13.candidates, four of whom are women. Over 50% of our poster presenters

:49:14. > :49:17.will be women and we are open other parties will take early. The Green

:49:18. > :49:20.Party have never been in a better position regarding money, resources,

:49:21. > :49:23.people to contest a general election. Our vote share has

:49:24. > :49:28.increased the last number of elections and we are optimistic and

:49:29. > :49:30.hopeful. We need to leave it there. Thank you both for coming in

:49:31. > :49:34.joiners. -- coming into joiners. Let's hear from our guests

:49:35. > :49:36.of the day, Professor Rick Wilford

:49:37. > :49:37.and Anna Mercer. Both parties confident

:49:38. > :49:48.of continued growth, It is a difficult time. They will

:49:49. > :49:52.have some impact, obviously. If only in shipping the agenda of the

:49:53. > :49:54.narrative, if you like, of the election campaign. There is quite a

:49:55. > :49:57.lot of common ground between the Green Party and People Before Profit

:49:58. > :50:01.on a number of issues, but electorally, I think they are going

:50:02. > :50:04.to be squeezed, not least because the unionist electorate has been

:50:05. > :50:09.absolutely galvanised for this election by the outcome of the

:50:10. > :50:15.Assembly election back in March. I suspect that this election is going

:50:16. > :50:17.to be, if anything, even more pro-sectarian than the person that

:50:18. > :50:21.will have a detrimental effect, I suspect, literally on the smaller

:50:22. > :50:26.parties. The last general election, the big five to just under 90% of

:50:27. > :50:29.the vote. The remainder was spread across the smaller, minor parties

:50:30. > :50:35.and a range of independence. They are only going to have a marginal

:50:36. > :50:39.impact in terms of, certainly I do not see them winning any seeds,

:50:40. > :50:46.perhaps with the exception And Alliance. With all of the issues

:50:47. > :50:49.confronting Northern Ireland, I think they have a key role to play.

:50:50. > :50:54.What do you think this election is likely to be about from a voter 's

:50:55. > :50:57.perspective? I think Brexit obviously is the context we are

:50:58. > :51:01.going into this election under. Northern Ireland did vote to remain,

:51:02. > :51:03.however the DUP in particular and the Ulster Unionist Party afterwords

:51:04. > :51:11.have taken a pretty strong parolees approach. I think we cannot sort of

:51:12. > :51:15.disassociates that from the last Assembly election. -- a pretty

:51:16. > :51:18.strong lead approach. It will be very much in their minds that they

:51:19. > :51:21.came within one seat of Sinn Fein. They will be wanting to consolidate

:51:22. > :51:25.their position and thinking about how they want to do this without

:51:26. > :51:29.increasing the Nationalist vote as per the last election. We may have

:51:30. > :51:35.to wait and see whether there will be a unionist Pact, because the

:51:36. > :51:39.parties have got until 4pm Thursday afternoon to actually, when

:51:40. > :51:44.nominations close, so the DUP and UUP have only got four days to come

:51:45. > :51:47.up with a pact, if there is to be one. And of course, it is

:51:48. > :51:51.distinguished possible that we will see some tactical voting in some of

:51:52. > :51:54.those constituencies, which could be very much to the detriment of the

:51:55. > :51:59.smaller parties. If people decide that this is about Brexit, for or

:52:00. > :52:04.against, they will perhaps focus on the two main candidates on either

:52:05. > :52:08.side of the fence. Yes, and it is first past the post. The Assembly

:52:09. > :52:11.elections you voted on the ticket, to get one drowsiness, so that

:52:12. > :52:15.probably will mean people will go towards the safer bet. The smaller

:52:16. > :52:19.parties will be looking to use this opportunity to prove themselves and

:52:20. > :52:24.set out their stall. But ultimately, first past the post favours the

:52:25. > :52:25.larger parties. That is what makes a very interesting. Thanks very much.

:52:26. > :52:28.We will talk to you both later. and take a look at the week

:52:29. > :52:40.gone past in 60 seconds, Sinn Fein's Michelle O'Neill

:52:41. > :52:46.defended her attendance at a commemoration for eight IRA men shot

:52:47. > :52:48.dead by the SAS. I see no contradiction whatsoever in

:52:49. > :52:53.commemorating a republican dead whilst reaching out to our Unionist

:52:54. > :52:55.neighbours. I do not think yesterday did anything to reach out to

:52:56. > :53:00.unionism. Belfast City Council 's back a

:53:01. > :53:01.position to create an Irish language officer, and one Alliance member

:53:02. > :53:12.welcomed the move in Irish. As a member of the Presbyterian

:53:13. > :53:16.Church in Ireland, I am delighted to support a new language policy. The

:53:17. > :53:20.EU said it sold over Brexit negotiations and Northern Ireland

:53:21. > :53:25.made the headlines. I will pay great attention to the situation in

:53:26. > :53:27.Ireland, and I will go to Ireland next week.

:53:28. > :53:33.And the demand for special EU status continued. Northern Ireland is one

:53:34. > :53:35.part of the UK that can rejoin the EU in future, but without an Article

:53:36. > :53:39.49 negotiation. Now, French voters go to the polls

:53:40. > :53:44.to elect a new President today. So will they go for

:53:45. > :53:46.a pro-European liberal who's still something

:53:47. > :53:48.of an unknown entity, or a far-right challenger

:53:49. > :53:49.to the establishment, who has vowed to take

:53:50. > :53:52.on globalisation and France's relationship

:53:53. > :53:55.with the EU? Whoever wins - Emmanuel Macron

:53:56. > :53:58.or Marine Le Pen - what impact will it have

:53:59. > :54:00.on the rest of Europe? who's Professor of European Politics

:54:01. > :54:14.at Queen's University. David, hello. Thank you for joining

:54:15. > :54:16.us. The last two weeks of the campaign have been quite brutal. The

:54:17. > :54:20.country is very divided. How difficult will it be for whoever

:54:21. > :54:22.wins to unite the French people? I think it is going to be very

:54:23. > :54:27.difficult for them to unite the French people. Because also

:54:28. > :54:29.following the presidential elections we will have a parliamentary

:54:30. > :54:33.election as well so you will see competition there as well. I think

:54:34. > :54:37.there is obviously an expectation that Macron will probably win, given

:54:38. > :54:41.that the opinion polls, and there is a sense that he will get some degree

:54:42. > :54:47.of continuity in France's European policy with that. But obviously, if

:54:48. > :54:49.Marine Le Pen wins, then everything is up for question. I think the

:54:50. > :54:54.other thing to remember is that Marine Le Pen getting just over 20%

:54:55. > :54:58.of the vote, that are left it in just over 20% of the vote, so come

:54:59. > :55:02.the next presidential election, you probably still got that split within

:55:03. > :55:05.the French public over what their preferences are for the future of

:55:06. > :55:08.France. A lot of commentators have been saying that turnout could have

:55:09. > :55:14.a very big impact on the final result, but if Marine Le Pen were to

:55:15. > :55:19.be successful and overturn the huge lead in the polls that Emmanuelle

:55:20. > :55:24.Macron has, just how remarkable would that be in your view? I think

:55:25. > :55:28.it would be, well, it creates a enormous uncertainty as to what the

:55:29. > :55:31.French position is going to be. She would still need to get an amazing

:55:32. > :55:33.result in the parliamentary elections to secure a majority

:55:34. > :55:37.support within the parliament, and there is the view that without that

:55:38. > :55:41.Parliamentary support, she is going to be hamstrung. But I think she is

:55:42. > :55:44.still necessarily going to be very vocal in her opposition to the euro

:55:45. > :55:47.and there is going to be a debate here as to whether French should

:55:48. > :55:57.stay in the EU. It's created an enormous degree of uncertainty, and

:55:58. > :56:00.I think it is fair to say that the last majority of the other EU member

:56:01. > :56:02.states are desperately praying for a Emmanuel Macron victory. If that is

:56:03. > :56:05.what happened, what you think the impact will be over the course of

:56:06. > :56:09.discussions over the next two years as far as is concerned? Is Macron

:56:10. > :56:12.wins, we will likely see the unity of the EU 27 consolidated. He will

:56:13. > :56:17.be wanting to ensure that the EU comes out of this exceedingly well,

:56:18. > :56:21.that it remains and you can actually continue the process of European

:56:22. > :56:25.integration and he is keen to revive it. It is very unclear what will

:56:26. > :56:29.actually happen if Marine Le Pen wins. I think she is going to be

:56:30. > :56:34.very sympathetic to the British desire to leave and will probably

:56:35. > :56:38.not stand in the way of it at all. Which is a very strange conundrum,

:56:39. > :56:42.is it not, from Downing Street's perspective? For that reason, they

:56:43. > :56:46.might want Marine Le Pen to win, but probably for every other reason

:56:47. > :56:50.would not want her to win. Let's assume that Macron is successful.

:56:51. > :56:54.Does that been that it is going to be a much tougher negotiation, is

:56:55. > :56:57.what you are saying, as far as Theresa May is concerned? She may

:56:58. > :57:01.get a lot less of what she wants? It is going to be a tough negotiation

:57:02. > :57:04.either way. The one thing we have noticed over the last nine months is

:57:05. > :57:10.the unity of the 27. That has been quite remarkable for a lot of

:57:11. > :57:20.people. And that will not change if Macron is in there? No, I think that

:57:21. > :57:23.will become stronger. We got a German election coming up in the

:57:24. > :57:26.autumn as well but both of the leading candidates they are are

:57:27. > :57:29.equally as pro-EU as Macron. We had this final twist on Friday evening,

:57:30. > :57:33.when Mr Macron political movement ended up being the victim of a

:57:34. > :57:39.massive hack with documents released online. We have not, for reasons to

:57:40. > :57:42.do with how the media has dealt with this in France, we have not seen the

:57:43. > :57:45.details. They have not been widely reported. Do you think that is

:57:46. > :57:50.unlikely to have a huge impact on the final outcome, or could that

:57:51. > :57:54.produce the real surprise? It could go both ways. One, there are these

:57:55. > :57:59.allegations out there which will reinforce Marine Le Pen's vote for

:58:00. > :58:03.the people who but equally we are deeply suspicious of the origins, or

:58:04. > :58:08.alleged origins of a lot of these leaks and suggest there is an

:58:09. > :58:12.interference with it, and that would have been designed to help Marine Le

:58:13. > :58:16.Pen. Figures have pointed in Russia's direction. It had been

:58:17. > :58:21.predicted that this might happen -- this happen. As far as Europe is

:58:22. > :58:25.concerned, we should not underplay the significance of this report for

:58:26. > :58:27.the European project over the next two years and beyond? It is a very

:58:28. > :58:31.significant day today. two years and beyond? It is a very

:58:32. > :58:35.significant. You are faced with a high level of disruption if Marine

:58:36. > :58:38.Le Pen wins or a far greater continuity in the French position.

:58:39. > :58:42.We also need to note that Macron is Europhile and he has got ideas about

:58:43. > :58:45.pushing for further integration further down the line, and so I

:58:46. > :58:48.could actually see greater cooperation between the EU,

:58:49. > :58:51.particularly around the Eurozone, which on the one hand could

:58:52. > :58:57.consolidated but equally good open up some of the divisions within the

:58:58. > :58:59.EU longer term. It is a fascinating situation. We should get a better

:59:00. > :59:01.picture of that final outcome this evening, when polls close.

:59:02. > :59:09.Rick Wilford and Anna Mercer are still with me.

:59:10. > :59:16.Just a very quick word about that. What bearing to the two have --

:59:17. > :59:21.tonight might have on the Northern Ireland in particular? Immense. I

:59:22. > :59:24.think Ukip will be wanting Marine Le Pen to win and I think I agree with

:59:25. > :59:31.David in the sense that for them, that would be an easier proposition

:59:32. > :59:35.in relation to Brexit. Macron is a reconstructed Europhile and I think

:59:36. > :59:40.he has already said, I think, that he would be looking for really tough

:59:41. > :59:47.negotiation with the UK. Mrs may paradoxically perhaps would rather

:59:48. > :59:52.not have a liberal minded person in the early is a palace! For us, well,

:59:53. > :59:57.goodness knows. We do not know where we are, the UK does not know where

:59:58. > :00:03.we are, there are so many options and possibilities. What Macron will

:00:04. > :00:05.do will push hard for pretty tough negotiation with the UK and that

:00:06. > :00:08.could have a detrimental effect on us. It is going to be very

:00:09. > :00:17.interesting because we have got the EU's chief negotiator addressing the

:00:18. > :00:20.doll later this week. We have also got Tony Blair coming over to be a

:00:21. > :00:23.guest speaker at a conference. The European focus is going to be very

:00:24. > :00:26.close to our own door. It'll be interesting to see what some of

:00:27. > :00:30.these key figures have to say. Absolutely. To me, it has been the

:00:31. > :00:34.contrast in the approach of the UK Government and Irish Government. We

:00:35. > :00:40.have seen a much more partnership approach from the Irish government,

:00:41. > :00:42.the nod to the EU diplomacy style. And engaging with other politicians

:00:43. > :00:46.across Europe. The British government have been very forthright

:00:47. > :00:52.and very assertive in making a set of demands, which is much closer to

:00:53. > :00:57.the US model of diplomacy. I think if they want to learn anything from

:00:58. > :00:59.Northern Ireland, they need to build partnerships. What underpins

:01:00. > :01:02.partnership is trust and wherever that is not there, things fall apart

:01:03. > :01:07.and we do not need to look too far to see an example of that. They have

:01:08. > :01:11.got off on the wrong footing and need to put their heads together

:01:12. > :01:13.again. Very interesting situation unfolding before our eyes. Thank you

:01:14. > :01:13.again. Very interesting situation housing associations and investment,

:01:14. > :01:13.but unfolding before our eyes. Thank you

:01:14. > :01:13.both unfolding before our eyes. Thank you

:01:14. > :01:13.but we unfolding before our eyes. Thank you

:01:14. > :01:14.both very unfolding before our eyes. Thank you

:01:15. > :01:14.but we have unfolding before our eyes. Thank you

:01:15. > :01:30.both very much indeed. Four weeks to go until polling day

:01:31. > :01:33.on the 8th of June, what will the party strategies be for the

:01:34. > :01:40.remaining four weeks? Let's begin with the Conservatives. Do they just

:01:41. > :01:44.try to continue to play it safe for four weeks? Yes, with this important

:01:45. > :01:48.qualification. Theresa May Corp this election to get her own personal

:01:49. > :01:52.mandate partly, partly because she thought she would win big but to get

:01:53. > :01:58.her own personal mandate. Therefore, she needs to define it. In her own

:01:59. > :02:02.interests and to do with accountability to the country. So

:02:03. > :02:07.clearly, they will not take risks when they are so far ahead in the

:02:08. > :02:09.polls. What they do say in the manifesto matters in

:02:10. > :02:16.terms of the space that she has in the coming years to define her

:02:17. > :02:21.leadership against David Cameron 's. She is a free figure, partly on the

:02:22. > :02:31.basis of what she says as to how big she wins. They cannot just play it

:02:32. > :02:36.safe and repeat their mantra of strong and stable leadership, if she

:02:37. > :02:41.is going to claim her own mandate, they need the top policy? Yes, and

:02:42. > :02:44.what is unusual about this is that the manifesto matters far more

:02:45. > :02:47.because of what they need to do with it afterwards, than in terms of

:02:48. > :02:53.whether it is going to win anybody over now. Clearly, the strategy is

:02:54. > :02:56.yes, we do have two layout out a few things, there are interesting

:02:57. > :03:00.debates as to whether, for example, they will still commit to this

:03:01. > :03:04.ambition of reducing immigration to the tens of thousands, we do not

:03:05. > :03:07.know the answer yet. It is a question on whether she is setting

:03:08. > :03:15.herself up for difficulties later on. It will be a short manifesto, I

:03:16. > :03:19.would venture to guess? It is in her interests to be as noncommittal as

:03:20. > :03:23.possible, that argues for a short manifesto but what does strike me

:03:24. > :03:27.about the Conservative campaign, aside from the ambiguity on policy,

:03:28. > :03:33.is how personal it is. I think Theresa May, in her most recent

:03:34. > :03:36.speech, referred to "My local candidates", rather than

:03:37. > :03:43.Parliamentary candidates, very much framing it as a presidential

:03:44. > :03:47.candidate in France or the USA. Not a rational on her part. Everything I

:03:48. > :03:52.hear from the MPs on the ground and the focus groups being done by the

:03:53. > :03:56.parties, is that a big chunk of the population personally identify with

:03:57. > :03:59.her. If you can wrap up Middle England into a physical object and

:04:00. > :04:05.embody it in a person, it would be her. Although Jeremy Corbyn's

:04:06. > :04:08.unpopularity accounts for a big slice of her popularity, she has

:04:09. > :04:12.done a good job of bonding with the public. We never saw that coming!

:04:13. > :04:16.But you may well be right. That is happening now. Labour say it wants

:04:17. > :04:21.the Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell to play a more prominent role in the

:04:22. > :04:24.Labour campaign, he was on The Andrew Marr Show this morning and he

:04:25. > :04:29.was asked if he was a Marxist, he denied that he was. It surprised me

:04:30. > :04:36.as I had seen tape from before saying that he was proud of it.

:04:37. > :04:42.Let's look now and then. Are you a Marxist? I believe that there is a

:04:43. > :04:46.lot to learn... Yes or no? I believe that there is a lot to learn from

:04:47. > :04:49.reading capital, that is recommended not only by me but measuring

:04:50. > :04:57.economists as well. I also believe that in the long tradition of the

:04:58. > :05:01.Labour Party... We need to demand systemic change. I am a Marxist.

:05:02. > :05:06.This is a classic crisis of the economy. A capitalist crisis. I've

:05:07. > :05:13.been waiting for this for a generation! That was from about four

:05:14. > :05:17.years ago. No, I'm not a Marxist, yes, I am a Marxist... I've been

:05:18. > :05:21.waiting for the Marxist revolution my whole life... Does this kind of

:05:22. > :05:27.thing matter? Yes, but in fairness, I think he is a really good

:05:28. > :05:30.interviewee. The Shadow Cabinet have untested figures in a national

:05:31. > :05:36.campaign. None have ever been exposed at any level to a national

:05:37. > :05:41.media campaign that they are about to experience. He is the best

:05:42. > :05:46.interviewee. In fairness to him, when he gave that clip four years

:05:47. > :05:49.ago, I bet he never dream that he would be in a senior front bench

:05:50. > :05:54.position. But the background is clear. They are of the left, and I

:05:55. > :06:00.think they would all have described it. Jeremy Corbyn would have done,

:06:01. > :06:04.he is close to being like Tony Benn. There are about four Labour campaign

:06:05. > :06:08.is being fought in this election. Their campaign, the old Shadow

:06:09. > :06:13.Cabinet, campaigning in constituencies, but not identifying

:06:14. > :06:20.with that campaign. There is the former Labour leader Tony Blair. Is

:06:21. > :06:23.it damaging? I think so, if they could be damaged any further, I

:06:24. > :06:27.could see all of the Labour MPs with their heads in their hands. What I

:06:28. > :06:31.am hearing from Labour MPs is that there is not one of them who do not

:06:32. > :06:36.feel that they have a horrendous battle on their hands. These will be

:06:37. > :06:40.very individual local campaigns, where local MPs are winning despite

:06:41. > :06:45.the party leadership and not because of it. Already, talk is turning to

:06:46. > :06:49.what happens next. Is there anyway that Jeremy Corbyn, giving a

:06:50. > :06:55.horrendous set of general election results as many anticipate, may stay

:06:56. > :07:00.on all the same? It is not clear that even if the polls are right,

:07:01. > :07:06.that Mr Corbyn will go? John McDonnell implied it might not be

:07:07. > :07:10.the case but previously, he said it would be. What do you make of

:07:11. > :07:15.reports that the Labour strategy is not, I cannot quite believe I am

:07:16. > :07:20.saying this, not to win seats but maximise a share of the vote. If

:07:21. > :07:24.they do better than Ed Miliband with 30.5% of the vote, they believe they

:07:25. > :07:29.live to fight another day? Yes, it reminded me of Tony Benn's speech

:07:30. > :07:33.after the 1983 election where they said as bad as the Parliamentary

:07:34. > :07:37.defeat was there were 8 million votes for socialism. A big section

:07:38. > :07:45.of public opinion voted for that manifesto. I wonder whether that is

:07:46. > :07:50.Corbyn's supporters best chance of holding onto power. Whether they can

:07:51. > :07:55.say that those votes are a platform on which we can build. That said,

:07:56. > :07:59.even moderate Labour MPs and desperate for a quick leadership

:08:00. > :08:03.contest. I hear a lot of them say that they would like to leave it for

:08:04. > :08:07.one year. Maybe have Tom Watson as an acting Labour leader. He would

:08:08. > :08:10.still have a mandate. Give the top party a chance to regroup and get

:08:11. > :08:15.rid of some of its problems and decide where it stands on policy.

:08:16. > :08:18.Most importantly, for potential candidates to show what they are

:08:19. > :08:24.made of, rather than lurching straight into an Yvette Cooper

:08:25. > :08:31.Coronation. 30 seconds on the Liberal Democrats, their strategy

:08:32. > :08:39.was to mop up the Remain vote. Uncertain about the Brexit party in

:08:40. > :08:41.demise. Ukip. The remain as have a dilemma, the little Democrats are

:08:42. > :08:48.not a strong enough vessel with 89 MPs to risk all ongoing for them --

:08:49. > :08:53.the Liberal Democrats. Labour do not know where they stand on Brexit.

:08:54. > :09:02.There is not a robust alternative vessel for what is now a pro-Brexit

:09:03. > :09:04.Conservative Party. At the moment. Four weeks to go, but not for

:09:05. > :09:06.France... France has been voting since early

:09:07. > :09:09.this morning, and we should get a first estimate of who will be

:09:10. > :09:12.the country's next President Just to warn you there are some

:09:13. > :09:16.flashing images coming up. The choice in France

:09:17. > :09:18.is between a centre-left liberal reformer Emmanuel Macron

:09:19. > :09:20.and a right-wing nationalist Marine Le Pen - both have been

:09:21. > :09:22.casting their votes this morning. The two candidates topped

:09:23. > :09:25.a field of 11 presidential hopefuls in the first

:09:26. > :09:27.round of elections last month. The campaign has been marked

:09:28. > :09:29.by its unpredictability, and in a final twist on Friday

:09:30. > :09:35.evening, just before campaigning officially ended,

:09:36. > :09:37.Mr Macron's En Marche! group said it had been the victim

:09:38. > :09:43.of a "massive" hack, with a trove of documents

:09:44. > :09:45.released online. The Macron team said real documents

:09:46. > :09:48.were mixed up with fake ones, and electoral authorities warned

:09:49. > :09:50.media and the public that spreading details of the leaks would breach

:09:51. > :10:01.strict election rules. I'm joined now from

:10:02. > :10:14.Paris by the journalist As I left Paris recently, everybody

:10:15. > :10:17.told me that there was the consensus that Mr Macron would win, and win

:10:18. > :10:23.pretty comfortable you. Is there any reason to doubt that? -- pretty

:10:24. > :10:28.comfortably. I don't think so, there have been so many people left and

:10:29. > :10:33.right, former candidates who have decided that it was more important

:10:34. > :10:36.to vote for Macron, even if it was agreed with him, then run the risk

:10:37. > :10:44.of having Marine Le Pen as president. I think the spread is now

:10:45. > :10:47.20 points, 60% to Macron, 40% to Le Pen. So outside of the margin of

:10:48. > :10:53.error that it would take something huge for this to be observed. If the

:10:54. > :11:01.polls are right and Mr Macron wins, he has to put together a government,

:11:02. > :11:06.and in May there is a Coronation, then he faces parliamentary

:11:07. > :11:11.elections in June and could face a fractured parliament where he does

:11:12. > :11:13.not have a clear majority for his reforms. He could then faced

:11:14. > :11:19.difficulties in getting his programme through? I think that

:11:20. > :11:25.right now, with how things are looking, considering you have one

:11:26. > :11:30.half of the Republican party, the Conservative Party, they are making

:11:31. > :11:34.clear sides, not only that they want to support Macron but are supporting

:11:35. > :11:39.him actively. It means looking at the equivalent of the German party,

:11:40. > :11:44.the great coalition. Depending on how many seats established parties

:11:45. > :11:54.keep in the house committee may very well have a Republican Prime

:11:55. > :12:04.Minister, rather than having an adversarial MP, he may have someone

:12:05. > :12:10.who is relatively unknown outside of France, and a young woman. Contended

:12:11. > :12:16.that lost the Parez mayorship three years ago. She is a scientist and

:12:17. > :12:22.has been secretary of state. She would be an interesting coalition

:12:23. > :12:27.Prime Minister. Finally, Marine Le Pen, if she goes down to defeat a

:12:28. > :12:34.night, does she have the stomach and ambition, and the energy, to try it

:12:35. > :12:39.all again in 2022? She has all of that. The question is, would they

:12:40. > :12:44.let her? How badly would she lose? Her niece, now 27, a hard-working

:12:45. > :12:53.and steady person, unlike Marine Le Pen, who flunked her do paid --

:12:54. > :13:00.debate, her niece may decide that 2022 is her turn. Yet another Le

:13:01. > :13:04.Pen! All right, we will see. Just five years to wait, but only a few

:13:05. > :13:07.hours until the results of the election tonight.

:13:08. > :13:12.And we will get the exit polls here on the BBC. Given the exit polls

:13:13. > :13:16.will give as a pretty fair indication of what the result is

:13:17. > :13:19.going to be tonight. That will be on BBC news. That's all for today.

:13:20. > :13:22.The Daily Politics will cover every turn of this election campaign,

:13:23. > :13:27.And we're back here on BBC One at our usual time Next Sunday.

:13:28. > :13:30.Remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.