:00:34. > :00:41.As evidence grows that the Russian passenger jet downed over
:00:42. > :00:45.Egypt's Sinai desert last weekend WAS the target of
:00:46. > :00:53.a terrorist attack, we look at how Moscow and the West will respond.
:00:54. > :00:59.We will have the latest from each at and Russia. -- Egypt.
:01:00. > :01:02.Are we now on the brink of an even more dangerous phase of Islamist
:01:03. > :01:07.David Cameron says he's ready to lead Britain out of the EU
:01:08. > :01:09.if he doesn't get what he wants from renegotiation,
:01:10. > :01:14.Will his list of demands result in a good deal or turn out to be
:01:15. > :01:17.And the row over a new contract for junior doctors in England
:01:18. > :01:26.And coming up here: action,
:01:27. > :01:29.Is a deal to save Stormont now likely within days?
:01:30. > :01:31.We will have the latest on the negotiations.
:01:32. > :01:42.Sinn Fein and the UUP on next year's centenary commemorations.
:01:43. > :01:46.And with me, as always, the three journalists that help make this show
:01:47. > :01:49.the most anticipated TV event since the John Lewis Christmas advert!
:01:50. > :01:52.It's Nick Watt, Polly Toynbee and Janan Ganesh.
:01:53. > :01:54.We're not sure if they'll make you start thinking
:01:55. > :01:59.But they may well bring a tear to your eye.
:02:00. > :02:02.So, this week, we'll see what many eurosceptics and europhiles have
:02:03. > :02:05.been waiting for with all the excitement of a child thinking about
:02:06. > :02:08.their Christmas wish list, even though it's only early November.
:02:09. > :02:12.David Cameron will publish his letter to the President of the
:02:13. > :02:14.European Council setting out the "broad outlines" of what he wants
:02:15. > :02:17.to achieve from his renegotiation of Britain's EU membership.
:02:18. > :02:21.The upfront briefing from Ten Downing Street says that
:02:22. > :02:24.he'll challenge both the in and out campaigns to be more
:02:25. > :02:29.But, to assuage the eurosceptic majority in his party he'll use his
:02:30. > :02:35.strongest language yet to say that if he doesn't get what he wants,
:02:36. > :02:38.Whether they believe him is another matter.
:02:39. > :02:41.This is what Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond has to say this
:02:42. > :02:46.The British people will not be fobbed off with a set of cosmetic
:02:47. > :02:50.This is about fundamental change in the direction of travel in the
:02:51. > :02:55.European Union, to make sure that it works for Britain, and that it is
:02:56. > :03:00.an effective organisation for all the citizens of Europe, driving our
:03:01. > :03:03.prosperity and competitiveness in the 21st century.
:03:04. > :03:11.If we cannot do that, then we will not be able to win a referendum.
:03:12. > :03:17.That was the Foreign Secretary. Janan Ganesh, is anything happening?
:03:18. > :03:21.There is a problem the David Cameron, the things he is most
:03:22. > :03:24.likely to get from his renegotiation are not the things that will move
:03:25. > :03:28.the average voter, so what he is likely to get our protections for
:03:29. > :03:31.non-euro countries within the EU, and that will be very technical
:03:32. > :03:38.institutional stuff, double majority voting and so forth. That is doable,
:03:39. > :03:42.the Germans don't want a fragmented EU in terms of the currency. Does
:03:43. > :03:47.your average undecided voter decide on the basis of that? I think they
:03:48. > :03:50.are more moved by free movement and immigration, maybe even economic
:03:51. > :03:55.regulation, so the things he is most likely to get may not help him in a
:03:56. > :03:59.year or 18 months' time when he is campaigning to win a referendum. You
:04:00. > :04:02.get the feeling he has delayed telling us what he is really looking
:04:03. > :04:07.for because he is bound to disappoint. Indeed, and he has to be
:04:08. > :04:12.very careful to ask for things he can get. Three of the main things he
:04:13. > :04:16.can get, but I don't think he will get the four years' delay for in
:04:17. > :04:20.work benefits, it is discriminatory and goes against the basic
:04:21. > :04:25.principles and yet he is asking again. We can only hope he has had a
:04:26. > :04:28.nod and a wink from 27 other countries that they will agree to
:04:29. > :04:33.that because if he fails to get it, it will agree to that because if he
:04:34. > :04:41.fails to get it, it'll renegotiation and it is a good package, so we will
:04:42. > :04:46.hope it is not a cavalier piece of speaking. What is your take? Philip
:04:47. > :04:49.Hammond did say some of the changes would be introduced through domestic
:04:50. > :04:53.legislation and it does look like the ban on EU migrants claiming in
:04:54. > :04:59.work benefits for four years, the Government will they would thereby
:05:00. > :05:02.codify some recent European Court judgments that have gone in favour
:05:03. > :05:05.of the UK and not embedded in treaty change, but the hard language about
:05:06. > :05:11.treaty change, the reason they are standing soaked up, is George
:05:12. > :05:15.Osborne is absolutely confident that he is going to get a treaty change
:05:16. > :05:19.agreement, protections for the Euro outs and Britain will get an opt out
:05:20. > :05:23.from an ever closer union. George Osborne's the is that the protection
:05:24. > :05:26.for the Euro outs is the most important thing he can get the
:05:27. > :05:30.benefit of Britain but he knows politically the campaign, the most
:05:31. > :05:34.important thing he has to get those migrant benefit restrictions. We
:05:35. > :05:35.will see what he says on Tuesday, that is when the speech is being
:05:36. > :05:36.made. A senior US government official is
:05:37. > :05:39.quoted today by CNN saying they are "99.9% certain" that the 224
:05:40. > :05:41.passengers aboard the Russian jet which crashed into the Sinai Desert
:05:42. > :05:44.last Saturday were the victims That's the view in London as well
:05:45. > :05:50.as Washington and now, A memorial service has been held
:05:51. > :05:58.today in the Russian city of St Petersburg, where the charter
:05:59. > :06:01.flight was heading, while Moscow draws up plans to repatriate 80,000
:06:02. > :06:03.of its holidaymakers from various locations in Egypt, after it
:06:04. > :06:07.suspended all flights there, following in the wake of Britain's
:06:08. > :06:13.decision to suspend flights from Sharm el-Sheikh where thousands of
:06:14. > :06:15.British citizens are still stranded. The downing of the flight is
:06:16. > :06:18.a tragedy for those who lost their lives, and an inconvenience
:06:19. > :06:21.for those stuck in Sharm. But its geopolitical significance
:06:22. > :06:24.will be massive if it represents the emergence of Islamic State,
:06:25. > :06:27.much better funded and organised than al-Qaeda, as a terrorist group
:06:28. > :06:49.capable of hitting targets far from In a moment, we will speak to Steve
:06:50. > :06:51.Rosenberg in St Petersburg. First, we are joined by Sally Nabil from
:06:52. > :06:58.Sharm el-Sheikh. Does the Egyptian Government Phil Borley get
:06:59. > :07:01.now? The British were the first to stop flights, the Americans followed
:07:02. > :07:08.another Russians have banned all flights to Egypt except to get
:07:09. > :07:10.people out, is it beginning to trouble the Cairo Government? The
:07:11. > :07:15.Egyptian Government seems to be in a very tight situation, from an
:07:16. > :07:20.economic perspective. Tourism is very important to the economy, it is
:07:21. > :07:24.a lifeline to the Egyptian economy, which is already in a bad shape and
:07:25. > :07:29.the tourism industry depends mainly on Russia and Britain, so the fact
:07:30. > :07:36.that no more to wrists, from Russia or Britain, will be coming to Egypt
:07:37. > :07:39.is a huge blow to tourism here and Egypt needs foreign currency and it
:07:40. > :07:42.depends on tourist spot that mainly, so it is a major blow to the
:07:43. > :07:47.industry and put the Government in a tight situation. On the other hand,
:07:48. > :07:52.the way the Egyptians have handled security in Sharm el-Sheikh airport
:07:53. > :07:55.was a matter of great concern and criticism from different countries
:07:56. > :08:00.around the world, even the tourists I have spoken to, they told us when
:08:01. > :08:04.they first arrived, the security measures were a mess, so now the
:08:05. > :08:08.measures have been tightened, some to wrists I spoke to yesterday told
:08:09. > :08:18.me it makes them feel better -- some to tourist. If the President Sese
:08:19. > :08:27.Government is feeling beleaguered in Cairo and will take another economic
:08:28. > :08:31.hit because of the tourism, can we expect further crackdown on the
:08:32. > :08:36.Sinai province terrorist groups? It is hard to tell at the moment, but
:08:37. > :08:41.the Sinai military operation has been going on for nearly two years
:08:42. > :08:49.now and every now and then, we hear about major attacks carried by
:08:50. > :08:54.mainly the IS affiliated group called the Sinai province, so the
:08:55. > :08:58.fact that the group have operated in Sinai the nearly two years, it seems
:08:59. > :09:02.the insurgency group is still gaining momentum and if it happens
:09:03. > :09:04.to be true they managed to smuggle a bomb on board the plane, it is a
:09:05. > :09:11.major blow to the security operators. Sally Nabil, thank you.
:09:12. > :09:15.Let's go to St Petersburg, we are joined by Steve Rosenberg. Is there
:09:16. > :09:19.any indication yet of how, assuming that it is shown to be a terrorist
:09:20. > :09:26.attack, any indication of how Vladimir Putin is going to respond?
:09:27. > :09:31.No, not yet. I think it is important to remember that despite the growing
:09:32. > :09:37.suspicion that this was a bomb, the official Kremlin line still is that
:09:38. > :09:40.it is keeping an open mind about this disaster, it is treating all
:09:41. > :09:46.theories equally and the Kremlin says the fact that it has suspended
:09:47. > :09:51.all flights to Egypt does not mean it favours the terror theory over
:09:52. > :09:55.any other. Having said that, if it is proven to be a bomb, then judging
:09:56. > :09:59.by the way President Putin has responded in the past to terror
:10:00. > :10:05.attacks, I think we can expect a forceful response from him. How is
:10:06. > :10:09.the domestic politics? I know it is hard to tell, because the media is
:10:10. > :10:13.so controlled by the Kremlin, but is this an opportunity for Mr Putin to
:10:14. > :10:18.further strengthen his position with a tougher crackdown, or is there
:10:19. > :10:22.their fear in the Kremlin that having casualties as a result of his
:10:23. > :10:28.war on terror will not make him very popular? It is an interesting
:10:29. > :10:33.question. I remember back in 2004, when there was a string of terror
:10:34. > :10:37.attacks on Russian soil, there were bombs in the Moscow Metro, two
:10:38. > :10:45.planes bombed out of the sky and the year ended with the school siege in
:10:46. > :10:49.Beslan, where 330 people were killed. None of that seemed to dent
:10:50. > :10:54.Vladimir Putin's popularity. Quite the opposite, he used it to
:10:55. > :10:58.strengthen the power of the Kremlin. Now, you could argue that if this
:10:59. > :11:02.doesn't prove to have been a bomb, that could undermine the narrative
:11:03. > :11:06.that the Kremlin has been pushing domestically about its military
:11:07. > :11:10.operation in Syria. In other words, Russia has been saying it has been
:11:11. > :11:16.carrying out air strikes in Syria to boost national security in Russia,
:11:17. > :11:21.to destroy terrorists so they couldn't come to Russia and kill
:11:22. > :11:24.people there, that narrative will be seriously undermined. But whether
:11:25. > :11:28.Russians would connect the dots and say, President Putin said we would
:11:29. > :11:31.be safer but we clearly are not, I don't think that would happen,
:11:32. > :11:36.because the Kremlin control so tightly the media here, particularly
:11:37. > :11:41.television, and television is the key to influencing public opinion.
:11:42. > :11:44.So if the Kremlin was to change the narrative to something more like we
:11:45. > :11:48.have been attacked, we are the victims of terror, we need to carry
:11:49. > :11:52.on our battle against international terrorism, I think the Russian
:11:53. > :11:55.public would support that and from the people I have spoken to on the
:11:56. > :11:59.streets of St Petersburg this morning, I haven't heard a word of
:12:00. > :12:04.criticism of Vladimir Putin. Most people have said to me, I understand
:12:05. > :12:07.Russia is at threat of terror attacks and they don't seem to
:12:08. > :12:12.connect what may have happened to the Russian air bus with Russia's
:12:13. > :12:16.military operation in Syria. Steve Rosenberg in St Petersburg.
:12:17. > :12:18.We're joined now by the foreign affairs analyst Tim Marshall,
:12:19. > :12:20.Dr Domitilla Sagramoso, an expert in Russian security
:12:21. > :12:23.And joining us from our Plymouth studio is the
:12:24. > :12:28.He sits on the Commons Defence Committee, and is
:12:29. > :12:39.Tim Marshall, if, as the intelligence suggests, this attack
:12:40. > :12:42.was coordinated with Islamic State leaders in Iraq, and its affiliates
:12:43. > :12:48.in the Sinai called soon I province, it means Islamic State has
:12:49. > :12:54.the capability to plot mass casualty attacks outside of Syria and Iraq --
:12:55. > :12:56.called Sinai province. I think in the future, they will be able to do
:12:57. > :13:01.it globally and this is the first sign of them doing it outside of the
:13:02. > :13:07.countries they operate in. The head of the FSB came back the lead met
:13:08. > :13:11.Putin on Friday and Putin immediately set ground the planes,
:13:12. > :13:17.that shows us what they truly believe. Britain is third, it is
:13:18. > :13:30.Russia and Germany and France in the amount of tourists there. President
:13:31. > :13:35.Sisi has been to Moscow three times since he was elected. He is trying
:13:36. > :13:40.to pull Russia back from America. So it is difficult for the Egyptians
:13:41. > :13:44.and Russians to come back out to openly unsaved. So to come back to
:13:45. > :13:50.your original point, I think it is pretty clear that the Isis affiliate
:13:51. > :13:54.in Sinai swore allegiance to Isis in Iraq. They are under a lot of
:13:55. > :14:00.pressure from the Russians, 20% of the bombing was against Syria. They
:14:01. > :14:03.have told their affiliate in the Sinai, you are the ones who can do
:14:04. > :14:06.it from you do the operation, they have killed the Russians and the
:14:07. > :14:14.Russians have to respond, I agree with what the Moscow correspondent
:14:15. > :14:20.said, Putin does not respond -- not not respond, Putin responds and
:14:21. > :14:24.response with violence. Johnny Mercer, if what we are saying is
:14:25. > :14:30.true and it was a planned attack by Islamic State, it takes IS into what
:14:31. > :14:32.is called full spectrum terrorist activity and it is better financed
:14:33. > :14:39.than Al-Qaeda, it is better resourced and organised in Syria and
:14:40. > :14:44.Iraq and Osama Bin Laden ever was sitting in a cave in Afghanistan,
:14:45. > :14:51.this takes the global war on terrorism to a whole new level.
:14:52. > :14:57.This threat is existential. You can see, if this is proved to be
:14:58. > :15:02.something that has originated from so-called Islamic State, you can see
:15:03. > :15:08.their strategic region. This is why the Prime Minister has been going on
:15:09. > :15:11.about this for so long. We have to do something about so-called Islamic
:15:12. > :15:15.State because the threat will only get closer. We see this great
:15:16. > :15:23.outpouring of humanity with that little boy washed up on a beach. We
:15:24. > :15:27.have had 30 of our own terrorists massacred in Tunisia.
:15:28. > :15:32.I understand. Is the British response which the Prime Minister
:15:33. > :15:35.has not managed to get Pollard to agree to on deploying eight Tornado
:15:36. > :15:39.jets into Syria, is that really adequate given what you have called
:15:40. > :15:45.an existential threat? We need to do what we are asked to
:15:46. > :15:48.do by the coalition. It is not a question of how much manpower or
:15:49. > :15:52.machinery we are sending but the effect we can achieve on the ground.
:15:53. > :15:56.We have been asked to provide those Tornado jets because they have a
:15:57. > :16:00.specific tactical and technical capability to the coalition are
:16:01. > :16:04.asked when it comes to dynamic targeting within Syria. We should
:16:05. > :16:08.stand up to that and do our duty, and have the stomach for the fight.
:16:09. > :16:14.The idea we are asking people to do some mass bombing in Syria with no
:16:15. > :16:22.strategy, is misinformed. We should have got past this by now.
:16:23. > :16:26.What does this mean for Russia and Mr Putin?
:16:27. > :16:30.To a certain extent, this has brought the ball back to Russia. I
:16:31. > :16:35.would disagree with what the correspondent was saying, that the
:16:36. > :16:40.Russians will not be particularly affected and critical of Mr Putin's
:16:41. > :16:44.paper in the Middle East. On the one hand they understand, that is their
:16:45. > :16:54.argument that the President Assad regime needed to be faced for stock
:16:55. > :16:59.because it had fallen, then jihadists groups in Damascus and
:17:00. > :17:03.western parts of the country weather and they understand that.
:17:04. > :17:08.On the other hand, they will put brakes to any attempt to send ground
:17:09. > :17:15.troops which I think they are not planning to do either. I imagine he
:17:16. > :17:19.will have another response to the bombing.
:17:20. > :17:23.He hasn't done much, Tim Marshall. He has been bombing the other groups
:17:24. > :17:25.against President Assad. He may now extend the bombing to
:17:26. > :17:30.Islamic State. If you look at the pattern of
:17:31. > :17:36.bombing, 80% against the Free Syrian Army, it's changed on Thursday.
:17:37. > :17:40.There was an increase on bombing on Isis targets and I think you'll see
:17:41. > :17:46.more of that in coming days. There is no way the Russians will react.
:17:47. > :17:50.The Russian public, if you look at 9/11 and the reaction of the
:17:51. > :17:53.American public, lots of things have happened to lots of countries, the
:17:54. > :17:58.immediate reaction in the first weeks and months is not, our foreign
:17:59. > :18:02.policy is wrong, but revenge. The most potent of many of the human
:18:03. > :18:07.emotions. I am certain in the short term the Russian public will support
:18:08. > :18:17.more action. Your original point, Isis is in Libya, Syria,
:18:18. > :18:22.Afghanistan, Iraq, India, growing very slowly in many other countries,
:18:23. > :18:27.and it has become the poster boy for jihadists. It has replaced Al-Qaeda
:18:28. > :18:31.and with that comes money and people prepared to kill themselves.
:18:32. > :18:36.Johnny Mercer, the head of MI5 says the threat of terrorism to the UK is
:18:37. > :18:41.the highest he has seen, that was before the jet went down over the
:18:42. > :18:45.Sinai desert. We now know, we have had it independently corroborated,
:18:46. > :18:51.that I S has been using mustard gas on civilians in Aleppo, not because
:18:52. > :18:54.it is a very use to them, but as a sign, we have got it, a sign to the
:18:55. > :19:00.West. Is that a response series SATs is
:19:01. > :19:04.there a response seriously adequate to this?
:19:05. > :19:07.Until now, we have not been militarily involved as much as we
:19:08. > :19:12.should have. We are in a difficult place here, we are learning all
:19:13. > :19:16.still healing from the mistakes in the last 15 years in terms of
:19:17. > :19:20.foreign policy engagement. That can't mean we draw up the
:19:21. > :19:25.drawbridge and think the way to keep safe at home and keep our way of
:19:26. > :19:29.life is to have no strategic involvement overseas.
:19:30. > :19:33.If it is proved this is done by so-called Islamic State, it
:19:34. > :19:36.demonstrates their strategic reach and reinforces that argument that we
:19:37. > :19:40.have to do something about this threat. It is only going to come
:19:41. > :19:44.closer and it is not good enough for it to come closer, the something to
:19:45. > :19:51.happen, and afterward for us to say, we should have done this and that.
:19:52. > :19:54.We need an intelligent foreign policy such intervention strategy,
:19:55. > :20:00.this is what the banister is trying to do and we should support him.
:20:01. > :20:04.He referred to help Afghanistan and Iraq hang over this country's
:20:05. > :20:10.foreign policy and military responses. Does Afghanistan, from
:20:11. > :20:13.the Soviet era, does that hang over, is it a restraint on what the
:20:14. > :20:17.Kremlin might do today? Totally, they are aware of the risks
:20:18. > :20:23.that occurred when they intervened and the deaths and casualties in
:20:24. > :20:27.Afghanistan. One of the reasons why the Civic union became so weak and
:20:28. > :20:34.eventually led to its disintegration. There is only one
:20:35. > :20:39.other point I would like to make which people in Russia are now
:20:40. > :20:44.talking about, experts, is the fact that to a certain extent this attack
:20:45. > :20:49.was also very much targeted against Egypt. I think a lot of the focus
:20:50. > :20:54.has been on Russia. For me, it was always not very clear white Isis in
:20:55. > :20:59.Egypt in the Sinai desert was going to attack if Russian plane, and why
:21:00. > :21:01.not the people who were under the bombs?
:21:02. > :21:05.It seems very much that we should not forget the dimension that to a
:21:06. > :21:11.certain extent the Russians might not have been the initial main
:21:12. > :21:16.objective of the attack, but to have an impact on Egypt and the Egyptian
:21:17. > :21:22.tourism industry, because a country suffering the most from this attack
:21:23. > :21:26.is actually going to be Egypt. Because its economy is so weak. We
:21:27. > :21:30.had to be more careful when we analysed these groups and the
:21:31. > :21:35.connections, and not immediately assume that Isis is giving this
:21:36. > :21:38.order. I disagree with that interpretation.
:21:39. > :21:42.Tim Marshall, here is the rub at the moment. We now face this potential
:21:43. > :21:48.far wider or dangerous better resourced terrorist threat than ever
:21:49. > :21:54.before. It happens at a time when we want to get together to deal with
:21:55. > :21:59.this but the British are not bombing in Syria. Our allies America have
:22:00. > :22:03.stopped bombing, Saudi Arabia, UAE, has devoted its jets, Bahrain has
:22:04. > :22:09.not been part of anything since debris, the Saudis since September,
:22:10. > :22:14.Jordan since August. America which is half-hearted in this, is almost
:22:15. > :22:20.on its own in dealing with this now. And with a president not keen on
:22:21. > :22:24.doing this, who was pushed into it. The British situation is different.
:22:25. > :22:27.The politics of the matter, it is clear, is not in the House of
:22:28. > :22:32.Commons. The SNP, Labour, Tory rebels, will
:22:33. > :22:38.vote it down. We were talking earlier, because of a rock, we are
:22:39. > :22:50.not going to do without Parliamentary vote. -- Iraq.
:22:51. > :22:53.The French are putting their aircraft carrier back into the Gulf.
:22:54. > :22:55.It was that the two months and they are selling it back from another
:22:56. > :23:01.operation. At the request of the Americans. In
:23:02. > :23:07.2007, since then, the Americans do not have a carrier in the Gulf.
:23:08. > :23:16.The Tornado jets would make a difference. To say, we as a culture
:23:17. > :23:20.with commonalities in our belief systems, we are standing together.
:23:21. > :23:27.At the moment, they are not. We will leave it there.
:23:28. > :23:30.The uneasy truce between supporters of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn
:23:31. > :23:34.and the majority of Labour MPs is under renewed strain this week.
:23:35. > :23:37.First, MPs from the right of the party swept the board
:23:38. > :23:40.at elections for posts that will give them a role in making policy.
:23:41. > :23:42.Then Mr Corbyn's senior policy adviser, a young man called
:23:43. > :23:45.Andrew Fisher, was suspended from the party, apparently after Blairite
:23:46. > :23:47.MPs complained he had backed an anarchist at the general election
:23:48. > :23:56.We already know that at least one MP wants to trigger
:23:57. > :24:01.a leadership election if next May's election results are underwhelming.
:24:02. > :24:04.But, if there is a contest, how would it work, and what hurdles
:24:05. > :24:06.would face Mr Corbyn and his potential challengers?
:24:07. > :24:08.Giles has been delving into the Labour Party rule book.
:24:09. > :24:18.Be warned, there is flash photography in his film.
:24:19. > :24:21.That some Labour MPs did not and do not want Jeremy Corbyn
:24:22. > :24:27.That there are internal tensions between some MPs and Jeremy Corbyn's
:24:28. > :24:37.That Labour has not removed a sitting leader since 1935 is a fact.
:24:38. > :24:40.And that Jeremy Corbyn won the ballot to become leader with
:24:41. > :24:48.a whisker off 60% of the vote is also a fact.
:24:49. > :24:51.What is surprising about these facts is that it's Jeremy Corbyn's team
:24:52. > :24:54.themselves who are very keen to see the rules surrounding any challenge
:24:55. > :25:01.Because, when it comes to the rule book, the mechanism for such
:25:02. > :25:11.It starts well enough with chapter four, clause two, B, two:
:25:12. > :25:23.The wording of this clause is, in fact, already out-of-date as
:25:24. > :25:28.of last conference, as any MP who can get 20% of support from
:25:29. > :25:31.Labour Parliamentarians, that's MPs and now MEPs which, as of now means
:25:32. > :25:38.Whether there is anyone who could do that at the moment is
:25:39. > :25:41.a very moot point, however much some might wish there was.
:25:42. > :25:44.If they get them, they then write to the Party General Secretary, and
:25:45. > :25:53.Then Labour's National Executive Committee decides the timetable and
:25:54. > :26:00.The problem is, nowhere in the rules is it specified what happens next.
:26:01. > :26:02.It seems, within party circles, depending on their views,
:26:03. > :26:12.The challenger or challengers are put on the ballot with
:26:13. > :26:19.But the incumbent leader then needs 15% of Labour Parliamentarians to
:26:20. > :26:31.nominate them so they too appear on it.
:26:32. > :26:36.He is not popular inside the PLP, that is very clear.
:26:37. > :26:39.So, if he's not going to go through automatically,
:26:40. > :26:42.he has to knock on doors and get people to sign the form.
:26:43. > :26:47.The challenger is on the ballot, others may also seek 20% nomination
:26:48. > :26:59.threshold, and they too appear, but the leader is automatically included
:27:00. > :27:02.The idea, the incumbent, somebody with 60% of the electorate in the
:27:03. > :27:05.Labour Party, might not be on the ballot paper, yet someone at best
:27:06. > :27:08.on the fringes of the Labour Party could be, is obviously unthinkable.
:27:09. > :27:13.Only the named challenger goes forward
:27:14. > :27:16.with their 20% nomination, and it is a straight binary head-to-head with
:27:17. > :27:22.the leader who again is automatically in the contest.
:27:23. > :27:28.Mr Corbyn might need more protective gear from scenario one and two, but
:27:29. > :27:33.this programme understands option three is what the current leader's
:27:34. > :27:38.team and the party solicitor think is the correct interpretation.
:27:39. > :27:40.Of course, any talk of leadership challenges
:27:41. > :27:45.might well upset the 60% of those who clearly wanted Jeremy Corbyn to
:27:46. > :27:49.not only lead the party but lead it into the 2020 general election.
:27:50. > :27:54.This wouldn't happen in any other organisation where you
:27:55. > :27:57.have a new CEO judged on metrics that happened in the
:27:58. > :28:02.Let us give him a bit more time before we start mounting challenges
:28:03. > :28:05.or talking about challenges, because he does have an overwhelming mandate
:28:06. > :28:10.Nonetheless, in bars and offices across Westminster, some Labour MPs
:28:11. > :28:15.are thinking into the night how they can stop Jeremy Corbyn.
:28:16. > :28:20.And some have no desire to remove him,
:28:21. > :28:25.but think the idea of challenging any leader is important as an idea.
:28:26. > :28:28.As a historian, I realise the Labour Party has a major problem
:28:29. > :28:37.And I want a situation where it can say
:28:38. > :28:40.they are not doing a decent job, and therefore they have got to go.
:28:41. > :28:48.Because if he had won, he's there for two or three years.
:28:49. > :28:51.So, if the rules were clarified, would it make
:28:52. > :28:57.I can't see it happening for a very long time.
:28:58. > :28:59.At the moment, the only way to be able to get rid
:29:00. > :29:03.of Jeremy Corbyn, if that is what you want, is to convince people he
:29:04. > :29:10.I see absolutely no evidence of that happening at all.
:29:11. > :29:19.Of course that doesn't mean someone won't try.
:29:20. > :29:27.Pole, even if the Parliamentary party had the stomach for a coup
:29:28. > :29:30.against Mr Corbyn, it would result in civil war within the party
:29:31. > :29:32.because the next election would go back to the same electorate that
:29:33. > :29:46.elected Mr Corbin? could happen but if he was an
:29:47. > :29:50.absolute disaster, losing by-elections, and by disaster,
:29:51. > :29:54.significantly worse than Ed Miliband's results. After all,
:29:55. > :29:58.Labour doesn't get rid of its leaders. Until something of that
:29:59. > :30:01.kind happens, where you have a really persuasive argument that
:30:02. > :30:06.there is not a hope in hell of him winning the next election, that
:30:07. > :30:11.might bring the party round, but any rebels had to bring enough up the
:30:12. > :30:16.party round to say, look, winning is what really matters and this guy
:30:17. > :30:22.isn't going to win for us. Are there people talking, plotting coup is
:30:23. > :30:25.already? Of course, the counterrevolutionaries, and they are
:30:26. > :30:31.delighted with themselves in the PLP, they have a serious of
:30:32. > :30:34.modernisers who have been elected to the chairmanship of these committees
:30:35. > :30:40.-- a series of modernisers. 10% of them visited bag of loot voted for
:30:41. > :30:45.this candle. The problem is, they have the power to trigger a
:30:46. > :30:51.leadership contest but do not have the power to decide the contest,
:30:52. > :30:54.that will be for the people who overwhelmingly voted for Mr Corbyn
:30:55. > :31:00.and I agree, it will take up catastrophic meltdown over the next
:31:01. > :31:02.year to get the contest taking place, but even if you had that
:31:03. > :31:06.contest, I still think you will find, because he has only been there
:31:07. > :31:12.a year, his supporters will say it is not our fault, give him more time
:31:13. > :31:15.and you will find even in those circumstances, Jeremy Corbyn or
:31:16. > :31:20.Jeremy Corbyn person would win. Mr Corbyn does sometimes create
:31:21. > :31:24.unnecessary problems for himself. Let me show you this clip from
:31:25. > :31:28.Andrew Fisher, he was a political adviser to Mr Corbyn. He has been
:31:29. > :31:30.suspended from the party but he is still working for the Labour
:31:31. > :31:33.leader. One of its problems is this is what he had to say.
:31:34. > :31:36.I had the most excruciating half-hour of my life where I was
:31:37. > :31:39.I sometimes have nightmares, very violent, bloody nightmares
:31:40. > :31:44.But it was excruciating and he said, look, we got to explain to people
:31:45. > :31:48.there is more to life than moving from the bedroom to the sofa.
:31:49. > :31:51.That was his attitude towards people who are unemployed.
:31:52. > :31:55.For this plummy accented, Oxbridge-educated Tory
:31:56. > :31:58.in a red rosette, frankly, to be saying that, was the most
:31:59. > :32:09.It took every sinew of my self-discipline not to thump him.
:32:10. > :32:17.Though Mr Fischer is no stranger to defend himself, having called other
:32:18. > :32:21.Labour members vile gits and scumbags. You wonder why Mr Corbyn
:32:22. > :32:24.feels he needs someone like this. And if you think Mr Corbyn is trying
:32:25. > :32:31.to prevent an internal push against himself, why he would making the
:32:32. > :32:35.late make several of the personnel decisions he has -- why he would be
:32:36. > :32:39.making several other personnel decisions. If you are hoping to get
:32:40. > :32:41.him out, your hub would have to be that the new members that have
:32:42. > :32:45.changed the composition of the Labour Party are not hardened,
:32:46. > :32:49.militia style activists that will defend him to the last ditch, but
:32:50. > :32:53.are dreamers and kids who got excited over the summer and will
:32:54. > :32:56.break away in the coming years and will realise that internal party
:32:57. > :33:01.warfare means turning up to tedious meetings on a wet Thursday night and
:33:02. > :33:05.they will not be there to protect him in the worst instances. I think
:33:06. > :33:08.Polly is right, he won't go unless he is an obvious disaster, but I
:33:09. > :33:12.don't think he will come across as an obvious disaster until the spring
:33:13. > :33:19.of 2020, by which time it is too late and Labour have already lost
:33:20. > :33:21.the last of the late next election. -- lost the next election.
:33:22. > :33:23.It's coming up to one o'clock, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
:33:24. > :33:33.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now
:33:34. > :33:36.Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics in Northern Ireland.
:33:37. > :33:39.On this Remembrance Sunday, as wreaths are laid to remember
:33:40. > :33:41.the war dead, how will the parties here approach next
:33:42. > :33:46.year's centenaries of the Battle of the Somme and the Easter Rising?
:33:47. > :33:49.the Ulster Unionist Councillor Doug Beattie
:33:50. > :33:51.and the former Sinn Fein Lord Mayor of Belfast, Tom Hartley.
:33:52. > :33:53.Also today, with their thoughts on that private
:33:54. > :33:56.meeting between David Cameron and the First and Deputy First
:33:57. > :33:59.Ministers, my guests of the day are the academic Cathy Gormley-Heenan
:34:00. > :34:12.We are told he keeps a very close eye on the talks at
:34:13. > :34:15.Stormont, though the Prime Minister only tends to get personally
:34:16. > :34:19.The First and Deputy First Ministers held a private meeting with
:34:20. > :34:21.David Cameron in Downing Street on Friday afternoon.
:34:22. > :34:25.It is understood the discussions centred around Stormont's finances.
:34:26. > :34:27.So, does that development signal the likelihood
:34:28. > :34:32.The Secretary of State wasn't giving much away when I asked her
:34:33. > :34:40.about political progress on The View on Thursday night.
:34:41. > :34:45.And that the Cenotaph this morning in both us, she was asked about the
:34:46. > :34:49.significance of Freddie's meeting. I cannot comment on that meeting, it
:34:50. > :34:52.was a private meeting. The Prime Minister has obviously been
:34:53. > :34:59.following the process of the talks very carefully. It was no trouble
:35:00. > :35:03.for him to meet the First and 51st Ministers for an update. But I think
:35:04. > :35:10.it was useful meeting, and it is still going to be a crucial week.
:35:11. > :35:15.The Taoiseach has said the deal is on for this week. I am very hopeful
:35:16. > :35:22.and happy with the reports I am getting. That the deal is on here. I
:35:23. > :35:30.hope it can be included successfully in the next couple of days. I am in
:35:31. > :35:32.Enniskillen today, I will be talking to the Prime Minister in Downing
:35:33. > :35:35.Street tomorrow and afterwards I will make arrangements to meet with
:35:36. > :35:40.the First and Deputy First Minister and I hope we can have this
:35:41. > :35:41.concluded. Enda Kenny, talking there in Enniskillen.
:35:42. > :35:44.Let's hear what Cathy Gormley-Heenan and Newton Emerson make
:35:45. > :35:55.The situation is developing, as we are on air. Newton, I suppose we
:35:56. > :35:58.shouldn't be surprised a lot of people have been talking about
:35:59. > :36:04.choreography in the background over the last week or two, it seems now
:36:05. > :36:07.that a deal is on. Yes, and it will be roughly the day it was available
:36:08. > :36:11.last year and the year before and various other deals, but what seems
:36:12. > :36:16.different this time is that it is not the Sicily and all party deal.
:36:17. > :36:21.It seems to be between Sinn Fein and the DUP. -- not necessarily. That
:36:22. > :36:24.changes the dynamic. It could have ramifications for how Stormont feels
:36:25. > :36:29.and operates in the future. What do you make of the fact that Enda Kenny
:36:30. > :36:34.is saying this morning he is due to meet David Cameron tomorrow and then
:36:35. > :36:38.he will meet with Martin McGuinness and Peter Robinson tomorrow night? I
:36:39. > :36:42.suspect that is to talk about finances as well, it was reported
:36:43. > :36:45.earlier that the DUP and Sinn Fein had presented a paper although
:36:46. > :36:51.didn't table it as part of the formal negotiations, to ask the
:36:52. > :36:55.Irish Government for 550 million euros so I suspect the conversation
:36:56. > :36:59.tomorrow will be about that. As much as the conversation on Friday with
:37:00. > :37:04.David Cameron was probably about finance rather than the mechanics of
:37:05. > :37:09.the agreement. What do you make of Newton's point, it doesn't have to
:37:10. > :37:13.be, she confirmed this, it doesn't have to be a 5 party deal. What will
:37:14. > :37:23.happen if a deal is reached is that it will be presented to the Assembly
:37:24. > :37:27.as a legislative consent motion. It means that those issues will be
:37:28. > :37:29.dealt with by a single, unified unitary bill that will be taken
:37:30. > :37:35.forward by Westminster. The fact the DUP and Sinn Fein her -- are the
:37:36. > :37:38.July just parties will mean that despite any debate, the legislative
:37:39. > :37:44.consent motion will pass. Does not really matter the Ulster Unionists
:37:45. > :37:48.and the SDLP are left outside the tent? What is presumably critical is
:37:49. > :37:52.that the DUP and Sinn Fein are inside. Yes, that is all that
:37:53. > :37:57.matters. The only reason they ever cared about the smaller parties
:37:58. > :38:01.being on board is to have tribal cover when they do a deal with each
:38:02. > :38:06.other. If both of those parties have now done a deal, 1 of the things
:38:07. > :38:11.that means is that the DUP is no longer so worried about protecting
:38:12. > :38:15.its flank. What we're looking at is a Stormont Castle deal between the
:38:16. > :38:19.two main parties, rather than a Stormont House deal between the five
:38:20. > :38:24.parties? Yes, exactly. That is OK in the run-up to the election, the
:38:25. > :38:28.smaller parties will say that this was not an inclusive agreement, that
:38:29. > :38:35.all the parties had signed up to. What about the difficult issues? The
:38:36. > :38:40.Secretary of State confirmed that national security veto continues to
:38:41. > :38:42.be an issue for nationalists. There are outstanding issues for what the
:38:43. > :38:46.rough and legacy, could some of those issues be dealt with later or
:38:47. > :38:51.does this have to be a deal that includes everything, where all the
:38:52. > :38:55.detail is tied down? I don't see why it has do include all of the issues.
:38:56. > :38:58.I suspect there will be a form of words to cover the issues. I suspect
:38:59. > :39:02.that Sinn Fein has raised some of the non-financial issues to help
:39:03. > :39:09.cover its own moves on welfare reform. It is interesting to see
:39:10. > :39:15.what appears to be a more relaxed approach on the part of Enda Kenny
:39:16. > :39:17.today, saying I think a deal is on. The Secretary of State was very
:39:18. > :39:23.cagey about it, she said that a deal was possible but she would not say
:39:24. > :39:28.that it was probable. Admittedly, we are further down the road, but does
:39:29. > :39:33.it tell you that the Nationalists are more relaxed about this and
:39:34. > :39:37.Unionists? No, it tells me that they have been listening and reading the
:39:38. > :39:40.books on how to negotiate, because there are keeping civil underpinning
:39:41. > :39:46.all successful negotiations to create a win - win solution. One of
:39:47. > :39:49.those is no leaks, no offering ultimatums, no going to the press
:39:50. > :39:54.before you go to the parties, and listening more than talking. We have
:39:55. > :39:56.finally seen evidence of that bust up the fact that Theresa Villiers
:39:57. > :40:01.did not say what had happened on Friday night speaks volumes.
:40:02. > :40:03.Interesting to hear your thoughts, we will talk more on that later.
:40:04. > :40:04.Leading politicians from the Republic have joined
:40:05. > :40:07.Remembrance services here to honour the war dead.
:40:08. > :40:09.The Taoiseach, Enda Kenny, was in Enniskillen,
:40:10. > :40:11.and earlier this morning the Irish Minister for Foreign Affairs
:40:12. > :40:13.joined the Secretary of State and other dignitaries to lay a
:40:14. > :40:21.So, as we approach 2016 and the marking of two major historical
:40:22. > :40:23.anniversaries on both sides of the border, the Battle of the Somme
:40:24. > :40:28.and the Easter Rising, how will the parties approach the commemorations?
:40:29. > :40:31.The Ulster Unionist Party has revealed it is likely to be present
:40:32. > :40:35.in Dublin at some point next Easter, potentially holding its own event.
:40:36. > :40:38.Joining me are Doug Beattie, a UUP councillor in Craigavon,
:40:39. > :40:45.and the former Sinn Fein Lord Mayor of Belfast, Tom Hartley.
:40:46. > :40:51.You are both very welcome to the programme. Thank you for joining us.
:40:52. > :40:55.Doug Beattie, just before we get into this, can I ask you for the
:40:56. > :41:02.latest of elements, does it seem to you that a deal is going to happen
:41:03. > :41:07.this week and possibly your party might be outside the tent? Let's be
:41:08. > :41:12.clear that Sinn Fein and the DUP are doing a deal behind closed doors and
:41:13. > :41:15.the Osterley Unionist party are being held out. When we see the
:41:16. > :41:18.deal, I think Mike Nesbitt will see if it is a deal that is good for the
:41:19. > :41:24.people of Northern Ireland, and if it is we will sign up. If it is not,
:41:25. > :41:28.we most definitely will not. The fact is, they are doing a deal
:41:29. > :41:34.regardless of the input from the other parties, it is beyond me.
:41:35. > :41:37.Let's talk about Remembrance Sunday and the commemorations more
:41:38. > :41:43.generally. Today, Remembrance Sunday is still a contested space here. As
:41:44. > :41:49.a former soldier, what does it mean for you? It means everything, it is
:41:50. > :41:53.the 1 day of the year, collective Dave where we have the opportunity
:41:54. > :41:58.to remember and reflect. But it is a very private thing for individuals.
:41:59. > :42:01.Sadly for me it is a private, to remember and reflect on friends and
:42:02. > :42:06.colleagues and families who have passed away, and for those
:42:07. > :42:09.ex-combatants who have died and the many thousands of civilians who have
:42:10. > :42:14.passed away over conflicts past and present. It is very private. Before
:42:15. > :42:18.we have from Tom Hartley, have advanced at this stage are the
:42:19. > :42:24.Ulster Unionist plans to be in Dublin next Easter? Well, we have
:42:25. > :42:30.been sending representatives down to remember our war dead from the
:42:31. > :42:33.Easter Rebellion, for a number of years. We are now looking at how we
:42:34. > :42:38.can do that further, how we can engage politically about the
:42:39. > :42:42.repercussions of what happened in 1916 and the relevance they have
:42:43. > :42:48.today. What happened 100 years ago, nearly, has absolute relevance to
:42:49. > :42:51.what is happening today. Tom Hartley, do you welcome the Ulster
:42:52. > :42:54.Unionist being in Dublin discussing the Easter Rising, but possibly with
:42:55. > :42:59.their own event and possibly putting forward their own interpretation of
:43:00. > :43:03.what is wrong with the Nationalists view of the Easter Rising? Very much
:43:04. > :43:07.so. In fact, I think it is necessary. I think we need to
:43:08. > :43:14.address the Quebec city of our history. It is complex and often
:43:15. > :43:17.difficult. -- address the complexities. I want to see a
:43:18. > :43:22.process where people can engage and talk to one another, here different
:43:23. > :43:26.views, for instance next year I am starting to organise a number of
:43:27. > :43:31.lectures, one of which will be a Unionist critique of 1916, another
:43:32. > :43:34.will look at the communities of Donegal and Monaghan and Cabannes,
:43:35. > :43:39.who were really effective immediately after the rising. --
:43:40. > :43:49.caravan. I will be looking at how we replace rouble like Roger Casement
:43:50. > :43:55.-- we place people like. They were raised as Northern Protestants but
:43:56. > :43:59.Roger Casement ended up republican. Can we look at that just outside the
:44:00. > :44:05.normal way that people look at this? But there will be discordant
:44:06. > :44:09.and dissonant voices. You may hear things from Doug Beattie and others
:44:10. > :44:15.that you don't like and don't agree with. I would argue that is
:44:16. > :44:20.democracy. But is part of life, part of history. We are not
:44:21. > :44:24.one-dimensional. I keep saying history doesn't run along parallel
:44:25. > :44:27.lines in Ireland, it is complex, layered and difficult. But it is our
:44:28. > :44:34.history and I think we have doing get with it. Do you need to separate
:44:35. > :44:38.out that debate from acts of remembrance? There are two separate
:44:39. > :44:42.things going on, one is a historical discussion, the other is remembering
:44:43. > :44:49.people who lost their lives in conflict. Absolutely, there is even
:44:50. > :44:54.more to that, and ideological and political depth, if you look at the
:44:55. > :44:59.1916 rising, there is an ideological questions still to be asked, because
:45:00. > :45:06.the proclamation had a distinct set of principles it wanted to put out,
:45:07. > :45:10.which Unionists would clearly be opposed to. I suppose the question
:45:11. > :45:16.is, broadly, should Unionists really be getting involved in marking the
:45:17. > :45:19.centenary of the Easter Rising? The DUP's line is commemorations of the
:45:20. > :45:23.Easter Rising will be important to many people but they are not
:45:24. > :45:28.something with which many Unionists will feel much affinity or are
:45:29. > :45:31.likely to participate in. Alistair said to me that the rising was
:45:32. > :45:38."foreign, grubby, failed rebellion in some other place". -- Jim
:45:39. > :45:45.Allister. He speaks for himself and the TUV Blatt he might speak for
:45:46. > :45:49.some members of the UUP. You have to remember that the 1916 rebellion
:45:50. > :45:54.took place on UK soil. It was a battle held on UK soil, so we have
:45:55. > :45:59.to look at it, and see what the consequences were, and we have to
:46:00. > :46:03.remember. If you were to ask me, what do you think? I would say that
:46:04. > :46:07.everyone has the right to remember what is important to them and I
:46:08. > :46:12.would be happy to go down to Dublin and be involved in remembering all
:46:13. > :46:18.combatants and civilians, but not in Northern Ireland. Tom Hartley, can I
:46:19. > :46:23.ask about the Irish republican plans to mark the centenary of the Battle
:46:24. > :46:28.of the Somme? It involved the 36th Ulster Division, mostly from
:46:29. > :46:30.Northern Ireland. Is it right that the Irish Government acknowledges
:46:31. > :46:36.the significance of the Battle of the Somme and Ulstermen who died
:46:37. > :46:44.with Mac yes, because it is a major historical event. We have then to
:46:45. > :46:48.address it. It may be a challenge, but it needs addressed. We can't
:46:49. > :46:53.ignore it. History has happened. We have to engage with it. There will
:46:54. > :46:55.be those who will engage through talking, those who will engage
:46:56. > :47:01.through commemoration, but I think what we need in all of this is to
:47:02. > :47:06.say, let's stop hurting each other over our dead, let's bring a degree
:47:07. > :47:12.of dignity. One of the things I notice about history conversations
:47:13. > :47:17.is, people often get together and try and browbeat each other, to say,
:47:18. > :47:23.your history doesn't really matter. In fact, we can learn through these
:47:24. > :47:26.events to engage, have differences of opinion and be able to talk about
:47:27. > :47:31.different aspects and interpretations of history. If we
:47:32. > :47:34.come out of next year with a deeper understanding of each other and the
:47:35. > :47:36.dignity of the other, I think it will be a successful year.
:47:37. > :47:47.Is that what it is all about? Accepting that all kinds of things
:47:48. > :47:52.happened 100 years ago that we may like or may not, but an open,
:47:53. > :47:57.honest, respectful discussion is the way for a? Absolutely. Every person
:47:58. > :48:01.that wants the run version of history to be reinforced their
:48:02. > :48:06.another person who is really hungry or those alternative versions of
:48:07. > :48:10.history. Deceit understand why the interpretation might be different.
:48:11. > :48:14.-- to seek to understand. What people saw the consequences of the
:48:15. > :48:18.Easter Rising, and I think it is interesting that the Irish
:48:19. > :48:22.Government in their state-sponsored initiatives have education at the
:48:23. > :48:25.heart of it, putting emphasis on schools and on asking schoolchildren
:48:26. > :48:29.to design a proclamation for the 21st century, with a lot of the
:48:30. > :48:35.social and economic and equality measures underpinning it. So I
:48:36. > :48:40.agree. Newton, are you optimistic that what Doug and Tom want to
:48:41. > :48:46.achieve can and will be achieved? We know that politics both sides of the
:48:47. > :48:49.border, the chances are there will be individuals and parties who will
:48:50. > :48:56.choose to be offended at some of what happens. Of course there will
:48:57. > :48:59.be. Sinn Fein is running its own separate commemoration. But I think
:49:00. > :49:03.it would be as well to make both these commemorations as ecumenical
:49:04. > :49:06.as possible. I am struck by how there has been little reflection of
:49:07. > :49:10.the 50th anniversary of the Easter Rising, which was believed for a
:49:11. > :49:14.long time to have contributed to tensions in Northern Ireland. It fit
:49:15. > :49:20.into republican frustration, Unionists to get as a basis for
:49:21. > :49:23.provocation because there was a very militaristic celebration in the
:49:24. > :49:26.South. We have a much better effort going on in Dublin now but we have
:49:27. > :49:30.to recognise that it is a dangerous moment. You also have to point out
:49:31. > :49:34.that the Northern Ireland Executive release a statement said they had
:49:35. > :49:38.shown great leadership and I know they have been busy with other thing
:49:39. > :49:42.but perhaps that is one of the things that will be picked up again
:49:43. > :49:49.after the conclusion of the talks. How do you legislate... Welcome, you
:49:50. > :49:52.can, but deal the fact that the commemoration good step over the
:49:53. > :49:58.line? You have to have it as inclusive as possible. The mention
:49:59. > :50:01.of an educational basis for this commemoration is the way to go
:50:02. > :50:06.because a synergy look into the history in any detail, including
:50:07. > :50:08.that of the loyalists and the Unionist uprising in Northern
:50:09. > :50:14.Ireland, you realise how multilayered it is. I think that
:50:15. > :50:18.diffuses the situation. Well, complexity is perhaps what will be
:50:19. > :50:18.teased out in the next 12 months. Thank you to all.
:50:19. > :50:22.Now let's pause for a look back at the political week gone past
:50:23. > :50:38.Possible, not probable, the Secretary of State said a deal was
:50:39. > :50:42.not yet done. There is a concluded agreement -- I do not think there is
:50:43. > :50:45.a concluded agreement. It is possible we can get at that stage
:50:46. > :50:49.but I do not think there are that stage. For the 1st time in majority
:50:50. > :50:54.of MLAs voted in favour of same-sex marriage. But the DUP petition of
:50:55. > :51:00.concern blocked the motion. I think those who are against, like myself,
:51:01. > :51:04.on the wrong of history. Nothing changed following yet another
:51:05. > :51:11.academic selection debate. I have two sides of this argument. They are
:51:12. > :51:17.poles apart. It will remain so. We need to have a democratic fail-safe
:51:18. > :51:22.and have to listen to the attitude of local expertise there is in our
:51:23. > :51:30.system. And with arts cuts on the agenda, the Culture Minister used
:51:31. > :51:34.some colourful language. You do have a complete brass neck.
:51:35. > :51:38.Just time for a quick look at what's coming up this week,
:51:39. > :51:53.The parties, we know, have been called to Stormont tomorrow at
:51:54. > :51:57.10:30. We understand that sources suggesting a deal has been pencilled
:51:58. > :52:01.in for Thursday. I will believe it when I see it expect I have no doubt
:52:02. > :52:03.there is a deal but when it comes to precise times and days, there is
:52:04. > :52:09.always something else over the horizon. I asked the Secretary of
:52:10. > :52:13.State, is there a shadow deal that they have to sign up to? She said
:52:14. > :52:16.there is not at this stage. Do you think perhaps later there might be?
:52:17. > :52:21.It is interesting that Peter Robinson's comment said we will have
:52:22. > :52:28.a deal or not in ten days, which is tomorrow. We will see if he is a
:52:29. > :52:34.soothsayer or not! Let's talk about the SDLP. The leadership result due
:52:35. > :52:37.on Saturday. Can Colum Eastwood beat Alasdair McDonnell? What I have
:52:38. > :52:41.heard is he doesn't have the numbers. The interesting thing
:52:42. > :52:44.coming out is the internal report showing it would be the fifth
:52:45. > :52:48.largest party after the next election. That is the first time
:52:49. > :52:52.that the symmetry of the Stormont Executive system will have changed.
:52:53. > :52:57.That is big. What is your assessment of the debate going on within that
:52:58. > :53:01.party, Cathy? I think whoever the leader is after the leadership
:53:02. > :53:05.contest in November, faces a serious challenge. Alistair McDonnell had to
:53:06. > :53:10.explain to the electorate why after four years of rebuilding the party
:53:11. > :53:13.it has continued to have per election results. Colum Eastwood
:53:14. > :53:17.will have to be able to explain to those voting what he is going to do
:53:18. > :53:21.to turn that around. If he was elected, it would be a very short
:53:22. > :53:22.window of opportunity he has to turn things around before the next
:53:23. > :53:23.election. That's it from Sunday Politics
:53:24. > :53:26.for this week. My thanks to Bob Stewart and to
:53:27. > :53:32.Stephen Pound and, with that, The row between junior doctors and
:53:33. > :53:39.Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt has The disagreement centres
:53:40. > :53:42.around a proposed new contract The Government says the existing
:53:43. > :53:47.arrangements are outdated and claims the move will help
:53:48. > :53:50.deliver the Conservative manifesto The British Medical Association,
:53:51. > :53:55.representing junior doctors, says the changes will result in working
:53:56. > :53:58.practices that are unsafe and unfair Any industrial action could involve
:53:59. > :54:05.a walk-out from all but emergency work,
:54:06. > :54:09.in what is likely to be the biggest Well, the Labour Party has called
:54:10. > :54:15.on Mr Hunt to scrap his plans, and the Shadow Health Secretary
:54:16. > :54:26.Heidi Alexander joins us now. Welcome to the programme. Is the
:54:27. > :54:31.Labour Party in favour of the concept of a 7 day a week Health
:54:32. > :54:36.Service? We are but I think you need to understand the barriers that
:54:37. > :54:39.exist in order to provide that service.
:54:40. > :54:44.Jeremy Hunt the Health Secretary has implied that if you change the
:54:45. > :54:48.junior doctors's contract, then in some way that automatically means
:54:49. > :54:52.you have a 7 day NHS. It doesn't. You don't just need junior doctors.
:54:53. > :55:00.They are already working weekends and nights. You need consultant
:55:01. > :55:04.cover, diagnostics support, pharmacists, 24/7 social care.
:55:05. > :55:10.If Jeremy Hunt isn't being honest about the resources he would put in
:55:11. > :55:14.to deliver that 24/7 NHS, then picking a fight with junior doctors
:55:15. > :55:19.which is what he seems determined to do at the moment, will not provide
:55:20. > :55:26.the solution he said it will. If you wanted a proper 7-day-a-week
:55:27. > :55:33.NHS, would you also had to change the junior doctors's contract?
:55:34. > :55:36.I'm not totally convinced that changing their contracts will
:55:37. > :55:39.actually result in more junior doctors being available on the ward.
:55:40. > :55:43.There are some things that should probably...
:55:44. > :55:48.You have said the existing contract is not perfect, do you need to
:55:49. > :55:53.change it in some ways for seven day cover? Along with the things you
:55:54. > :55:58.mentioned. If you listened to what hospital bosses and chief executive
:55:59. > :56:01.say, they are saying very clearly that the junior doctor contract is
:56:02. > :56:04.not the main issue here. There are other things that would
:56:05. > :56:08.need to change. One of the things that really concerns junior doctors
:56:09. > :56:12.is that the proposals that seemed to be on the table at the moment are
:56:13. > :56:18.bad for patient safety, and they are not convinced that the proposals
:56:19. > :56:33.will result in them not working even more excessive and exhausting hours
:56:34. > :56:35.than they at the moment. The contract at the moment has
:56:36. > :56:37.financial penalties built into it which means, if a hospital forces
:56:38. > :56:39.junior doctors to work very long hours, then that hospital is
:56:40. > :56:42.financially penalised. And that system, whilst it may not be
:56:43. > :56:44.perfect, has the broad confidence of junior doctors, and they are very
:56:45. > :56:47.worried this proposal that has come forward in the last couple of days,
:56:48. > :56:51.even though negotiations have been going on for years, will compromise
:56:52. > :56:55.patient safety. Was the BMA right to begin a strike
:56:56. > :57:00.ballot without sitting down with Jeremy Hunt over the new offer? I
:57:01. > :57:05.think the BMA and junior doctors feel that they have been backed into
:57:06. > :57:07.a corner because of the way that Jeremy Hunt has handled these
:57:08. > :57:11.negotiations. He started off by saying that the
:57:12. > :57:18.BMA and junior doctors would have two agreed to 22 out of 23
:57:19. > :57:19.preconditions laid down by the doctors and dentists's remuneration
:57:20. > :57:26.board. He went on to imply, which has
:57:27. > :57:29.angered Junor doctors even more, if you change this contract it will
:57:30. > :57:35.somehow result in lives being saved. And then we have a situation on
:57:36. > :57:41.Wednesday, 24 hours before the ballot of junior doctors is due to
:57:42. > :57:43.start, that he decides the best way to conduct negotiations is to issue
:57:44. > :57:50.a press release from the Department of Health. And that is the best way
:57:51. > :57:56.to conduct negotiations. He has been talking to the BMA since
:57:57. > :58:01.2012, this is not a new problem. He has made an 11% pay offer. He
:58:02. > :58:05.said other than the few already working illegal hours, less than 1%
:58:06. > :58:11.would see come would lose some pain but that is because they would not
:58:12. > :58:14.be working as much. 75% would get a rise, is that not something worth
:58:15. > :58:19.talking about? A lot of this is spent, Andrew.
:58:20. > :58:24.How do you know? The 11% pay offer applies to a
:58:25. > :58:29.proportion of the junior doctors's contract, the other proportion of
:58:30. > :58:35.their wage will actually be going down. So, you cannot say that this
:58:36. > :58:39.is an 11% pay rise. Let me finish this point. How do you know if you
:58:40. > :58:45.don't sit around negotiations? Listen to Jeremy Hunt, he is saying
:58:46. > :58:50.the overall pay envelope for junior doctors will remain broadly the
:58:51. > :58:53.same. How can it possibly be an 11% pay rise?
:58:54. > :58:57.A rise in the basic and they will do less overtime, less hours would
:58:58. > :59:00.count as overtime. It is cogitated as it may be the
:59:01. > :59:05.junior doctors will think this does not take us forward.
:59:06. > :59:10.Don't they owe it to those of us who pay their salaries, the people who
:59:11. > :59:14.use the NHS, to sit down with Mr Hunt and go through it? I think they
:59:15. > :59:18.have tried but the way in which the Health Secretary has handled these
:59:19. > :59:22.negotiations has been absolutely appalling.
:59:23. > :59:27.Take the example of this. On Wednesday, again, 24 hours before
:59:28. > :59:31.the ballot opens, it is the first time that the Health Secretary says
:59:32. > :59:37.that the Care Quality Commission are going to be involved in monitoring
:59:38. > :59:40.the hours of junior doctors. Why didn't we hear that two months ago?
:59:41. > :59:44.Why did we hear that six months ago? This is the Care Quality
:59:45. > :59:47.Commission... If you were a junior doctor, would you vote for strike
:59:48. > :59:53.action? I am not a junior doctor, it is not
:59:54. > :59:57.for me as a politician to sit in a TV studio on a Sunday afternoon and
:59:58. > :00:03.tell junior doctors how they should vote in a ballot. I am not going
:00:04. > :00:11.If they do vote for strike action, will the Labour Party support them?
:00:12. > :00:16.I am not going to prejudge the outcome of the ballot. You have come
:00:17. > :00:20.on and argued the junior doctors' case, with knowledge and some
:00:21. > :00:24.eloquence, so if they vote for strike action, why, given everything
:00:25. > :00:29.you have said, would you not support them? Jeremy Hunt can avoid a strike
:00:30. > :00:37.tomorrow if he avoids the threat of contract imposition. I will ask
:00:38. > :00:41.Jeremy Hunt when I speak to him. Would you, if they vote for strike
:00:42. > :00:45.action, will the Labour Party support them? It is a simple
:00:46. > :00:49.question. I will be happy to come back and speak to you in a couple of
:00:50. > :00:53.weeks, but I am not going to prejudge the outcome of a democratic
:00:54. > :00:58.process that is currently under way. The Government in a mess or other
:00:59. > :01:01.junior doctors chancing their arm? It is interesting, it is where is
:01:02. > :01:05.where those two Conservative manifesto commitments made, the
:01:06. > :01:09.seven-day NHS and the other thing, the ?22 billion of efficiency
:01:10. > :01:15.savings in the NHS to meet the ?30 billion funding gap. What is
:01:16. > :01:18.interesting is if there is pain here, imagine what it will be like
:01:19. > :01:22.in other areas of the public services. The NHS is protected, it
:01:23. > :01:27.has a ring fenced budget that rises in line with inflation. Other areas
:01:28. > :01:30.that are not protected will face cuts of 25%, so this is just an
:01:31. > :01:35.early taste of how difficult things will get next year on the other side
:01:36. > :01:38.of the Spending Review. I want to put something to you that the
:01:39. > :01:45.cheaper the defence staff said to me, not about the NHS, he would be
:01:46. > :01:49.worried if Mr Trident Macca delete Corbin's views on Trident became
:01:50. > :01:52.Labour policy -- Jeremy Corbyn's views on Trident became Labour
:01:53. > :01:57.policy, that he would never press the button. Let's hear what Richard
:01:58. > :02:03.Houghton had to say. The whole thing about deterrence rest on the court
:02:04. > :02:08.Macca delete -- rest on the use. If you say you are never going to use
:02:09. > :02:11.it, I say you use it every minute of every day and the purpose of the
:02:12. > :02:16.deterrent is you don't have to use it because you successfully deter.
:02:17. > :02:20.So no point in spending billions and billions if our enemies think we
:02:21. > :02:20.will never use it? Yes, because deterrence is then
:02:21. > :02:23.will never use it? Yes, because deterrence is then completely
:02:24. > :02:27.undermined. Isn't that the point, if you have
:02:28. > :02:30.the deterrent, you say you will use it, even if you might not. If you
:02:31. > :02:36.don't have it, you save the money. What is the logic of having it and
:02:37. > :02:40.saying you will not use it? I think Jeremy was probably answering a
:02:41. > :02:44.hypothetical question. He has been clear that the Labour Party is going
:02:45. > :02:48.to have a review of its policy. I am somebody who welcomes that review,
:02:49. > :02:52.to be honest. I understand that, but my point is you can have a review
:02:53. > :02:55.and say we won't have the deterrent or we will have the deterrent. What
:02:56. > :03:01.is the logic of saying we will have it but won't use it? As I say, I
:03:02. > :03:09.think Jeremy was answering a hypothetical question. I think it is
:03:10. > :03:14.a difficult question. His views on nuclear weapons are long held. The
:03:15. > :03:18.Labour Party needs to go through this review. We need to decide
:03:19. > :03:23.democratically as a party whether we want to commit to the renewal of
:03:24. > :03:27.Trident. At the point at which that decision is taken, Labour Party
:03:28. > :03:28.members will obviously be deciding... Thank you, you can come
:03:29. > :03:29.back and tell me that. There's no Sunday Politics next week
:03:30. > :03:34.because MPs are taking a break from Westminster - but we'll be back
:03:35. > :03:36.on the 22nd November. Remember, if it's Sunday,
:03:37. > :03:39.it's the Sunday Politics -