:00:40. > :00:45.The morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. First, some Sunday
:00:46. > :00:50.morning cheer, if you are an MP, that is. You are set to get an 11%
:00:51. > :00:56.pay rise. The Chancellor has gone from zero to hero for some, who
:00:57. > :01:01.credit him for turning the economy around. We will be taking a fine
:01:02. > :01:06.tooth comb to his Autumn Statement. Should this man get a pay rise?
:01:07. > :01:13.Complete denial about the central facts... And 11% pay rise for Ed
:01:14. > :01:17.Balls? He was certainly working hard to be heard last Thursday. We will
:01:18. > :01:22.be reviewing his performance. What about this man? We will be joined by
:01:23. > :01:50.With me, three scruffy eternal students. They would celebrate if
:01:51. > :01:53.they achieved a C+. But they are all we could afford and there will be no
:01:54. > :01:57.pay rise for them. They will be glued to an electronic device
:01:58. > :02:02.throughout the programme and if we are lucky they might stop there
:02:03. > :02:07.internet shopping and tweet something intelligent. But don't
:02:08. > :02:11.hold your breath. Janan Ganesh, Helen Lewis and Nick Watt. Last
:02:12. > :02:14.week, storms were battering Britain, the East Coast was hit by the worst
:02:15. > :02:18.tidal surge in more than a century, thousands of people had to be
:02:19. > :02:23.evacuated and Nelson Mandela died. The downed the news agenda was the
:02:24. > :02:29.small matter of George Osborne's Autumn Statement. His giveaways, his
:02:30. > :02:38.takeaways and his first opportunity to announce some economic cheer.
:02:39. > :02:49.It might be winter outside, but in the studios it is awesome. Autumn
:02:50. > :02:52.Statement time. -- autumn. This is a moment of TV history. Normally when
:02:53. > :02:56.the Chancellor delivers these statements, he has to say the
:02:57. > :03:00.economy is actually a lot worse than everyone predicted. This time, he
:03:01. > :03:01.can stand up and say the economy is better than everybody predicted. A
:03:02. > :03:10.lot better. Britain is currently growing faster
:03:11. > :03:18.than any other major advanced economy. Faster than France, which
:03:19. > :03:23.is contracting, faster than Germany, faster even than America. At this
:03:24. > :03:28.Autumn Statement last year, there were repeated predictions that
:03:29. > :03:32.borrowing would go up. Instead, borrowing is down, and down
:03:33. > :03:34.significantly more than forecast. But George Osborne said the good
:03:35. > :03:41.numbers still mean more tough decisions. We will not give up in
:03:42. > :03:45.giving in our country's debts. We will not spend the money from lower
:03:46. > :03:52.borrowing. We will not squander the harder and games of the British
:03:53. > :03:56.people. -- hard earned gains. In other news, further cuts to
:03:57. > :04:02.government departments. The state pension age will increase in the
:04:03. > :04:07.2040s, affecting people in their 40s now. There were some goodies, like
:04:08. > :04:10.discounted business rates for small businesses, free school meals for
:04:11. > :04:16.infants, favoured by the Lib Dems, and those marriage tax breaks below
:04:17. > :04:17.that by the Tories. But, as with all big fiscal events, it takes a while
:04:18. > :04:26.for the details to sink in. The marriage tax allowance is a
:04:27. > :04:29.long-standing commitment that he could not abandon. It does help
:04:30. > :04:34.those families were only one goes out to work. It does not go to
:04:35. > :04:39.higher rate taxpayers, I don't think. Perhaps it does, I can't
:04:40. > :04:44.remember. It makes me feel guilty, I am taking them very seriously,
:04:45. > :04:47.but... Shall I give you them? There is the Autumn Statement. Have that,
:04:48. > :04:51.a free gift from the Sunday Politics. Is there no limit to the
:04:52. > :05:02.generosity of the BBC? In the meantime, Twitter was awash
:05:03. > :05:05.with unflattering pictures of a red-faced Ed Balls giving his
:05:06. > :05:11.response. Some pictures were more than flattering than others. Is Ed
:05:12. > :05:15.Balls OK? Should we be worrying about him? He looks very stressed.
:05:16. > :05:20.There is nothing to worry about in terms of Ed balls and his analysis.
:05:21. > :05:27.He and Ed Miliband have been setting the pace in terms of the focus on
:05:28. > :05:30.the living standards crisis. It was very telling that there was not a
:05:31. > :05:36.mention of living standards last time, we got 12 mentions this time.
:05:37. > :05:42.Never mind what he was saying, by now everybody has a copy of the
:05:43. > :05:45.all-important paperwork. Time to hand over to number cruncher
:05:46. > :05:50.extraordinaire Paul Johnson from the Institute for Fiscal Studies. Of
:05:51. > :05:53.course it means that things are significantly better this year and
:05:54. > :05:56.next than we thought they would be just nine months ago. That has got
:05:57. > :06:00.to be good news. But it is also worth looking at the growth figures
:06:01. > :06:09.a few years out. They have been revised down a little bit. The
:06:10. > :06:12.reason is, the view of the office of budget response ability is that the
:06:13. > :06:15.long run has not really changed very much. We are getting a bit more
:06:16. > :06:19.growth now, but their view is that it is at the cost of a little bit of
:06:20. > :06:23.the growth we will expect in the years after the next general
:06:24. > :06:27.election. As the day draws to a close, the one place there has
:06:28. > :06:35.definitely been no growth is the graphics budget of my colleague,
:06:36. > :06:40.Robert Preston. It's as good as it gets these days, I don't think the
:06:41. > :06:47.viewers will mind. It's very Sunday Politics, if I might say. That is
:06:48. > :06:53.very worrying. Was this a watershed for George
:06:54. > :06:57.Osborne? Was it a watershed for Ed Balls? We can all make the case that
:06:58. > :07:01.it is the wrong sort of recovery, a consumer led recovery. People are
:07:02. > :07:05.spending money they don't have. At the end of the day, it for George
:07:06. > :07:09.Osborne, it is growth, the first time he has been able to talk about
:07:10. > :07:14.growth. It allows him to control the baseline, the fiscal debate for the
:07:15. > :07:17.next generation. For Ed Balls, nearly not a good performance. But
:07:18. > :07:22.don't write this man off. Judging by Twitter, Iain Dale, no friend of it
:07:23. > :07:30.all is, said he did a good interview this morning on a rival TV channel.
:07:31. > :07:33.I feel the fact that the Tories hate Ed Balls so passionately is probably
:07:34. > :07:40.a good reason that they should hang onto him, in that Labour sends his
:07:41. > :07:47.effectiveness. May be the Tories hope that they hold on to him as
:07:48. > :07:49.well? A lot of people shouting at someone and mocking their speech
:07:50. > :07:53.impediment, that is politics that doesn't make me want to engage. The
:07:54. > :07:58.takeaway will be lots of people thinking that none of these people
:07:59. > :08:01.are people they like. Who is the main heckler on the Labour front
:08:02. > :08:06.bench West remarked I suppose he can't cast any stones. It would be
:08:07. > :08:10.easier to sympathise with him, if it were not that David Cameron went
:08:11. > :08:16.through a similar situation and John Bercow did not step in to stop the
:08:17. > :08:24.wall of noise. It was guaranteed a good happen to a Labour politician.
:08:25. > :08:31.It's painful to remove him because he had a Parliamentary following and
:08:32. > :08:36.he will kick up a fuss. I think he's much more pragmatic on issues like
:08:37. > :08:41.business than Ed Miliband. I'm told he wasn't keen on the energy price
:08:42. > :08:46.freeze. The problem with Ed Balls, to have the first words that you
:08:47. > :08:50.say, the Chancellor is in denial, after he is presiding over growth,
:08:51. > :08:54.it means nobody is listening to you. Who would replace him? Certainly not
:08:55. > :08:58.Alistair Darling, the side of the referendum and even afterwards. Ed
:08:59. > :09:01.Balls did get a roasting in the press and on Twitter. He seemed to
:09:02. > :09:06.disappear from public view following the Autumn Statement. But a little
:09:07. > :09:08.bird tells me he managed one interview this morning before he
:09:09. > :09:13.went off to an all-important piano recital this afternoon. Watch out,
:09:14. > :09:17.Jools Holland, he could be after your job. How bad was his
:09:18. > :09:23.performance on Thursday? Here is the Shadow Chancellor in action. The
:09:24. > :09:29.Chancellor is incomplete denial about the central facts that are
:09:30. > :09:39.defining this government in office. He used to say he would balance the
:09:40. > :09:45.books in 2015. Now he wants us to congratulate him for saying he will
:09:46. > :09:51.do it in 2019, Mr Speaker. With this government, it is clearly not just
:09:52. > :09:59.the badgers that move the goalposts. No mention of the universal credit
:10:00. > :10:08.in the statement. IDS, in deep shambles, Mr Speaker. Chris Leslie
:10:09. > :10:15.is the Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury. He is Ed Balls's deputy,
:10:16. > :10:20.in other words. Why do more and more of your Labour colleagues think that
:10:21. > :10:24.your boss is below the water line? I'm not sure I accept the premise of
:10:25. > :10:29.your suggestion. I don't think my colleagues believe that George
:10:30. > :10:33.Osborne has a superior argument. I think Ed Balls will certainly trying
:10:34. > :10:36.his best, loud and clear, to make the case there is a cost of living
:10:37. > :10:39.crisis in this country and the Chancellor doesn't understand this.
:10:40. > :10:45.That was essentially the heat of the debate on the Autumn Statement day.
:10:46. > :10:48.One leading Labour MPs said to me that Ed Balls is always looking
:10:49. > :10:53.back, fixated with the rear-view mirror, that was the exact quote. A
:10:54. > :10:58.Labour MP told Sky News, Labour has a strong argument to make,
:10:59. > :11:06.unfortunately it was not made well in the chamber today. Quoting the
:11:07. > :11:11.Daily Mail, this is two poor performances. A quote that I can't
:11:12. > :11:17.use because it uses too many four letter words. Baroness Armstrong,
:11:18. > :11:21.speaking at Progress, a former Labour Cabinet minister, we are not
:11:22. > :11:24.sufficiently concerned about public spending, how we would pay for what
:11:25. > :11:28.we are talking about. Quite a battering? There were two sets of
:11:29. > :11:34.quotes you were giving. The couple were about the strategy for tackling
:11:35. > :11:40.public expenditure. I think it's fair that we talk about that. The
:11:41. > :11:51.rest were pretty unattributed, nameless sources. You have never
:11:52. > :11:56.given and of the record briefing? We have conversations off camera, but I
:11:57. > :12:01.don't think you have a wealth of evidence to say that somehow Ed
:12:02. > :12:04.Balls's arguments were wrong. He was making the point that, ultimately,
:12:05. > :12:09.it is a government that does not have its finger on the pulse about
:12:10. > :12:12.what most of your viewers are concerned about, that wages are
:12:13. > :12:17.being squeezed and prices are getting higher and higher. You have
:12:18. > :12:23.had time to study the Autumn Statement. What part of it does
:12:24. > :12:29.Labour disagree with? It is a very big question. I think the overall
:12:30. > :12:33.strategy the Autumn Statement is setting out does not deal with the
:12:34. > :12:37.fundamental problems in the economy. What measures do you disagree with?
:12:38. > :12:41.A lot of it is the absence of measures we would have put in if we
:12:42. > :12:44.were doing the Autumn Statement. If you are going to deal with the cost
:12:45. > :12:48.of living crisis, you have got to get productivity levels up in our
:12:49. > :12:52.society. One of the best ways of doing that is on infrastructure. We
:12:53. > :12:57.believe in bringing forward 's investment and housing, getting some
:12:58. > :13:04.of the fundamentals right in our economy. By planting, the business
:13:05. > :13:13.lending we have to do. We have seen a lamentable failing. There are big
:13:14. > :13:16.structural reforms that we need. Ultimately, the public are concerned
:13:17. > :13:22.about the cost of living crisis. That has got to be childcare help, a
:13:23. > :13:25.10p starting rate of tax. Above all, and energy price freeze, which
:13:26. > :13:31.still this government are refusing to do. On Friday, you told me you
:13:32. > :13:36.supported the principle of a welfare cap. But you change bling claim the
:13:37. > :13:40.Chancellor's cap included pensions. You have now seen the figures, and
:13:41. > :13:45.it does not include pensions, correct? We do want a welfare cap.
:13:46. > :13:51.The government have said they are going to put more detail on this in
:13:52. > :13:56.the March budget. But it does not include pensions? We think they have
:13:57. > :14:01.a short term approach to the welfare cap. They put in some pension
:14:02. > :14:05.benefits. The state pension is not in the short-term plan because, as
:14:06. > :14:10.we believe, a triple lock is a good idea. In the longer term, if you are
:14:11. > :14:13.talking about structural welfare issues, you do have to think about
:14:14. > :14:16.pensions because they have to be sustainable if we are living
:14:17. > :14:21.longer. I think that is about the careful management. Let me show you
:14:22. > :14:27.what Ed Balls said on this programme at the start of the summer. As for
:14:28. > :14:30.pensioners, I think this is a real question. George Osborne is going to
:14:31. > :14:34.announce his cap in two weeks time. I don't know if he will exclude
:14:35. > :14:39.pension spending or including. Our plan is to include it. Pension
:14:40. > :14:44.spending would be included in the welfare cap? That is our plan,
:14:45. > :14:47.exactly what I just said. Over the long-term, if you have a serious
:14:48. > :14:53.welfare cap structural welfare issues, over 20, 30, 40 year
:14:54. > :14:58.period, you can't say that we will not work and pensions as part of
:14:59. > :15:06.that. Pensions would be part of the Labour cap? In the longer term. What
:15:07. > :15:12.is the longer term? If you win 2015? We want to stick with the triple
:15:13. > :15:15.lock on the pension, that is the Government approach to their
:15:16. > :15:19.short-term welfare cap. In the longer term, for example, on the
:15:20. > :15:25.winter fuel allowance, we should not necessarily be... There are lots of
:15:26. > :15:28.benefits... I understand that, I am talking about the basic state
:15:29. > :15:35.pension, is that part of your welfare cap or not? In a 20, 30, 40
:15:36. > :15:45.year frame... Even you will not be around in government, then. You are
:15:46. > :15:49.writing me off already. You have to focus on welfare changes, pensions
:15:50. > :15:52.have to be affordable as part of that. It's dangerous to say, well,
:15:53. > :15:56.if you are going to have a serious welfare cap, we should not look at
:15:57. > :16:03.pensions cost. It would be irresponsible. Will pensions be part
:16:04. > :16:08.of the cap from 2015 until 2020 if Labour is in power? In our long-term
:16:09. > :16:16.cap we have to make sure... I'm talking about 2015-16. We haven't
:16:17. > :16:21.seen the proposition the Government has put before us.
:16:22. > :16:32.You claim people of ?1600 worse off under the coalition. That is true
:16:33. > :16:37.when you compare to pay and prices. Can you confirm that calculation
:16:38. > :16:42.does not include the ?700 tax cut from raising the income tax
:16:43. > :16:47.threshold, huge savings on mortgages because of low interest or the
:16:48. > :16:50.freezing of council tax? It doesn't include the tax and benefit
:16:51. > :16:56.changes. If you do want to look at those, last year, the ISS said they
:16:57. > :17:04.could be making people worse off. It might not include those factors. The
:17:05. > :17:10.VAT increase, tax credit cuts, child benefit cuts, they all add up. My
:17:11. > :17:16.understanding is that the ISS figures have said people are ?891
:17:17. > :17:24.worse off if you look at the tax and benefit changes since 2010. You have
:17:25. > :17:27.to look at wages and prices. The ISS confirmed our approach was broadly
:17:28. > :17:33.the right way of assessing what is happening. The Chancellor was
:17:34. > :17:39.saying, real household disposable incomes are rising. He is completely
:17:40. > :17:44.out of touch. Can you sum up the macro economic policy for Labour?
:17:45. > :17:48.Invest in the future, make sure we have the right approach for the
:17:49. > :17:52.long-term politicking. Tackle the cost of living crisis people are
:17:53. > :17:55.facing. Now, let's talk to the Financial
:17:56. > :18:03.Secretary to the Treasury, Sajid Javid.
:18:04. > :18:09.Discovery, underpinned by rising house prices, increasing personal
:18:10. > :18:13.debt, do you accept that is unsustainable?
:18:14. > :18:20.I accept the OBE are also said the reason why this country is facing
:18:21. > :18:26.more these challenges -- OBR. That is because we went through a
:18:27. > :18:34.Labour recession, the worst we have seen in 100 years. But do you accept
:18:35. > :18:40.that a recovery underpinned by these things I have just read out isn't
:18:41. > :18:45.sustainable? We set out a long-term plan for recovery, and again this
:18:46. > :18:49.week. We have shown with the tough decisions we have made already, the
:18:50. > :18:55.country can enjoy a recovery. There are still a lot of difficult
:18:56. > :19:06.decisions. The biggest risk are Labour's plans. The March
:19:07. > :19:10.projections work at for those -- for both business investment and
:19:11. > :19:16.exports. Suddenly it is expected to rise 5% next year, a 10% turnaround
:19:17. > :19:20.in investment. How is it credible? I have been in business before
:19:21. > :19:25.politics. Any business person listening will know, when you have
:19:26. > :19:30.gone through a recession, the deepest in 100 years, it will hit
:19:31. > :19:34.investment, profits, you can't make plans again until you have
:19:35. > :19:43.confidence in the economy. That is what this country is seeing now
:19:44. > :19:49.under this government. This is an assumption made independently. The
:19:50. > :19:56.fall in business investment is because of the recession. The
:19:57. > :20:02.forecast increases, 5% next year, and so on, it is based on the
:20:03. > :20:08.independent forecast. Based on fact. If you look at the investment plans
:20:09. > :20:15.of companies, this week, the Chancellor went to JCB, Jaguar Land
:20:16. > :20:19.Rover has plans to create more jobs, these investment plans are
:20:20. > :20:23.coming through now because of the confidence generated by this
:20:24. > :20:28.government, such as the cut in corporation tax which Labour would
:20:29. > :20:34.increase. Are the export forecasts more credible? The 15 years, our
:20:35. > :20:42.share of world trade decline. Suddenly starting next year, it
:20:43. > :20:46.stops falling. That's not credible. I worked in finance the 20 years. I
:20:47. > :20:55.have yet to find any forecast which is fully right. Under Labour, we
:20:56. > :21:01.would have forecasts made by Gordon Brown who would announce he would
:21:02. > :21:05.hit all his targets. Now we have an independent system.
:21:06. > :21:11.Do you accept, if exports or business investment do not pick up,
:21:12. > :21:16.then a purely consumer led recovery is not sustainable? We need more
:21:17. > :21:23.than a consumer led recovery. We need consumer investment to go up.
:21:24. > :21:27.On Xbox, it is noticeable that experts are primarily down because
:21:28. > :21:31.the markets we trade with, the eurozone markets, are depressed.
:21:32. > :21:37.Many have just come out of recession. Or they are still in
:21:38. > :21:47.recession. If you look at exports to non-EU countries, they are up 30%.
:21:48. > :21:53.120% to China. 100% to Russia. Will you keep the triple lock for
:21:54. > :21:59.the state pension beyond 2015? Yes, long term. That's why it is not part
:22:00. > :22:03.of our welfare cap. Chris Leslie cannot answer that question. It is
:22:04. > :22:11.straightforward. House prices are now rising ten
:22:12. > :22:19.times faster than average earnings. That's not good. House prices are
:22:20. > :22:23.rising, partly reflecting recovery. Ten times faster than average
:22:24. > :22:29.earnings, how can people afford to buy homes if it carries on? What you
:22:30. > :22:33.would hope, this is the evidence, if you look at the plans of the month
:22:34. > :22:40.companies, they are planning new homes which will mean that, as this
:22:41. > :22:44.demand spurs that investment, more homes will come about. We need to
:22:45. > :23:33.give people the means to buy those homes. We have introduced the help
:23:34. > :23:38.to buy scheme. I accept the OBR says it will start rising again but as
:23:39. > :23:52.household debt rises again Petr Cech reduces, -- as household debt
:23:53. > :23:57.reduces, we need to make sure there are checks in place. Wages have not
:23:58. > :24:06.been rising in real terms for quite some time. Over the next five years,
:24:07. > :24:17.even as the economy grows, by about 15% according the OBR to the OBR --
:24:18. > :24:23.but people will not benefit. These hard-working families will not share
:24:24. > :24:29.in the recovery. What is the best way to help those families? The
:24:30. > :24:34.government doesn't set wages. What we can do is influence the overall
:24:35. > :24:44.economy. We don't have a magic lever. Wages have been stagnating
:24:45. > :24:49.for five years. When will people get a proper salary? The best way for
:24:50. > :24:53.wage growth is a growing economy, more jobs. We have more people
:24:54. > :25:00.employed in Britain today than at any time in our history. The biggest
:25:01. > :25:05.risk to recovery is if we let Labour into the Treasury with more spending
:25:06. > :25:10.and more debt. Which got us into this trouble. By whatever measure
:25:11. > :25:16.you care to choose, would people be better off come the 20 15th election
:25:17. > :25:23.than they were in 2010? Yes, they will be. Look at jobs. Already more
:25:24. > :25:28.people employed than at any other time in history. Will they be better
:25:29. > :25:32.off? The best way for anyone to raise their living standards is
:25:33. > :25:40.access to a growing job market. But will they be better off? I believe
:25:41. > :25:45.people will be. Compared to 2010. Yes. In terms of take-home pay. This
:25:46. > :25:51.is a credible measure. Now, what do you think the Education
:25:52. > :25:55.Secretary, Michael Gove, was like at school? Hard-working? Hand always
:25:56. > :25:58.up? Top of the class? Well, if he wasn't passionate about education
:25:59. > :26:06.then, he is now. In fact, since he took office, it seems he hasn't
:26:07. > :26:09.stopped working very hard indeed. When the coalition came to power,
:26:10. > :26:12.Michael Gove evoked Mao, saying they were on a long march to reform
:26:13. > :26:18.education. Just like Mao, they faced a baby boom, so pledged ?5 billion
:26:19. > :26:23.for new school places. They extended Labour's academy programme. There's
:26:24. > :26:25.now about 3,000 in England. But then, they marched even further,
:26:26. > :26:33.creating free schools run by parents, funded by taxpayers. 174
:26:34. > :26:35.have opened so far. The schools admission code was changed, to give
:26:36. > :26:38.parents more choice. And a pupil premium was introduced,
:26:39. > :26:42.currently, an extra ?900 funding for each disadvantaged child.
:26:43. > :26:46.An overhaul of the national curriculum provoked criticism.
:26:47. > :26:53.Chairman Gove mocked detractors as "bad academia". But exam reforms
:26:54. > :26:57.didn't quite go to plan. Although GCSEs got harder, plans to replace
:26:58. > :27:00.A-levels had to be abandoned. Ultimately, the true test of these
:27:01. > :27:06.reforms will be what happens in the classroom. The person in charge of
:27:07. > :27:09.making sure those classrooms are up to scratch in England is the Chief
:27:10. > :27:14.Inspector Of Schools, head of Ofsted, Michael Wilshaw, who joins
:27:15. > :27:19.me now. Over the past 15 years, we have
:27:20. > :27:23.doubled spending on schools even allowing for inflation. By
:27:24. > :27:28.international standards, we are stagnating, why? I said last year
:27:29. > :27:38.that mediocrity had settled into the system. Too many children were
:27:39. > :27:44.coasting in schools, which is why we changed the grading structure, we
:27:45. > :27:49.removed that awful word, satisfactory. Saying that good is
:27:50. > :27:53.now the only acceptable standard and schools had a limited time in which
:27:54. > :27:58.to get to that. We are seeing gradually, it is difficult to say
:27:59. > :28:04.this in the week we have had the OECD report. Things have gradually
:28:05. > :28:08.improved. I will come onto that in a minute. Explain this. International
:28:09. > :28:14.comparisons show us flat-lining or even falling in some subjects,
:28:15. > :28:18.including science. For 20 years, our domestic exam results just got
:28:19. > :28:23.better and better. Was this a piece of fiction fed to us by the
:28:24. > :28:29.educational establishment, was there a cover-up? There is no question
:28:30. > :28:35.there has grade inflation. I speak as an ex-headteacher who saw that in
:28:36. > :28:39.examinations. Perceptual state is actually doing something about that.
:28:40. > :28:49.Most good heads will say that is about time. We have to be credible.
:28:50. > :28:53.Do politicians and educationalists conspire in this grade inflation? It
:28:54. > :28:58.might suit politicians to say things are going up every year. As a head,
:28:59. > :29:06.I knew a lot of the exams youngsters were sitting were not up to scratch.
:29:07. > :29:12.The latest OECD study places us 36th for maths, 23rd reading, slipping
:29:13. > :29:17.down to 21st in science. Yet, Ofsted, your organisation,
:29:18. > :29:23.designates 80% of schools as good or outstanding. That's another fiction.
:29:24. > :29:26.This year, we have. If we see this level of progress, it has been a
:29:27. > :29:32.remarkable progress over the last years since we changed our grading
:29:33. > :29:37.structure, then... In a year, absolutely. We have better teachers
:29:38. > :29:41.coming into our school system. Better leaders. Better schools. The
:29:42. > :29:44.big challenge for our country is making sure that progress is
:29:45. > :29:52.maintained which will eventually translate into better outcomes.
:29:53. > :29:57.These figures are pretty much up-to-date. Are you saying within a
:29:58. > :30:03.year 80% of the schools are good enough? All of the schools we
:30:04. > :30:08.upgraded have had better grades in GCSE and grade 2. We have to make
:30:09. > :30:12.sure that is maintained. The Government has based its reforms on
:30:13. > :30:15.similar reforms in Sweden. In opposition they were endlessly going
:30:16. > :30:20.to Stockholm to find out how it was done. Swedish schools are doing even
:30:21. > :30:26.worse than ours in the tables. Why are we copying failure? The
:30:27. > :30:31.secretary of state believes, and I actually believe, as somebody who
:30:32. > :30:35.has come from an academy model, that if you hand power and resources, you
:30:36. > :30:38.hand autonomy to the people on the ground, to the people in the
:30:39. > :30:46.classroom, in the corridors, in the playgrounds, things work. If you
:30:47. > :30:50.allow the great monoliths that used to have responsibility for education
:30:51. > :30:53.in the past to take control again, you will see a reverse in standards.
:30:54. > :30:56.You have got to actually empower those people that make the
:30:57. > :31:02.difference. That is why autonomy and freedom is important. We spent a lot
:31:03. > :31:05.of money moving what were local authority schools to become
:31:06. > :31:09.academies and new free school czar being set up as well. When the
:31:10. > :31:13.academies are pretty much the same level of autonomy, the free school
:31:14. > :31:18.is maybe a little bit more, the evidence we have had so far is that
:31:19. > :31:21.they don't really perform any better than local authority schools?
:31:22. > :31:26.Indeed, Encore GCSE subjects, they might even be doing worse? These are
:31:27. > :31:31.early days. We will say more about this on weapons they when we produce
:31:32. > :31:35.the annual report. The sponsored academies that took over the worst
:31:36. > :31:37.schools in the country, in the most difficult circumstances, in the most
:31:38. > :31:45.disadvantaged communities, are doing much better now. What about GCSE?
:31:46. > :31:51.They are doing GCSE equivalents, the lass academic subjects question my
:31:52. > :31:55.cull OK, but they are doing better than previous schools. If you look
:31:56. > :32:08.at the top performing nations in the world, they focus on the quality of
:32:09. > :32:11.teaching. The best graduates coming to education. They professionally
:32:12. > :32:15.develop them. They make sure they spot the brightest talents and get
:32:16. > :32:18.them into positions as soon as possible. We have got to do the same
:32:19. > :32:25.if we are going to catch up with those jurisdictions. This isn't just
:32:26. > :32:29.a British problem. It seems to be a European problem. The East Asian
:32:30. > :32:31.countries now dominate the top of the tables. What's the most
:32:32. > :32:37.important lesson we should learn from East Asia? Attitudes to work.
:32:38. > :32:43.We need to make sure that we invest in good teachers, good leaders. We
:32:44. > :32:47.have to make sure that students have the right attitudes to work. It's no
:32:48. > :32:52.good getting good people into the classroom and then seeing them part
:32:53. > :32:58.of teaching by bad behaviour, disaffected youngsters and poor
:32:59. > :33:02.leadership. We see young teachers doing well for a time and then being
:33:03. > :33:08.put off teaching and leaving from that sort of culture in our schools.
:33:09. > :33:12.Are you a cheerleader for government education policy rather than
:33:13. > :33:16.independent inspectors? I am independent, Ofsted is independent.
:33:17. > :33:21.I believe we are saying the right things on standards. The Association
:33:22. > :33:24.of teachers and lecturers say you are an arm of government. The NUT
:33:25. > :33:29.has called for your resignation. Another wants to abolish or
:33:30. > :33:35.Inspectorate. Have you become a pariah amongst teaching unions? If
:33:36. > :33:41.we are challenging schools to become better, that is our job, we will
:33:42. > :33:44.carry on doing that. I am not going to preside over the status quo. We
:33:45. > :33:48.will challenge the system to do better, we will challenge schools
:33:49. > :33:52.and colleges to do better. We will also challenge government when we
:33:53. > :33:54.think they are going wrong. Many people in the education
:33:55. > :33:58.establishment think your primary purpose is to do the Government's
:33:59. > :34:05.bidding by shepherding schools into becoming academies. Not true at all.
:34:06. > :34:10.You are a big supporter of academies? Yes, I believe the people
:34:11. > :34:13.that do the business in schools are the people that are free to do what
:34:14. > :34:17.is necessary to raise standards. I am a big supporter of autonomy in
:34:18. > :34:27.the school system. But where we see academies Vale, where we see free
:34:28. > :34:31.schools fail, we will say so. The study does not find much evidence
:34:32. > :34:37.that competition and choice raise standards, but it does go with you
:34:38. > :34:41.and say that strong school leadership, coupled with autonomy,
:34:42. > :34:45.can make a difference. Can somebody with no experience in education be
:34:46. > :34:49.in charge of a school? A lot of hot air has been expounded on the issue
:34:50. > :34:52.of whether teachers should be qualified or not. If qualified
:34:53. > :35:01.teacher status was the gold standard, why is it that one in
:35:02. > :35:04.three teachers, one in three lessons that will observe are not good
:35:05. > :35:08.enough. Taught by qualified teachers. I've not yet met a
:35:09. > :35:12.headteacher that has not appointed by qualified staff when they cannot
:35:13. > :35:16.get qualified teachers. Their job is to make sure they get accredited as
:35:17. > :35:19.soon as possible and come up to scratch in the classroom. Do you
:35:20. > :35:26.support the use of unqualified teachers? I do. I have done it. If I
:35:27. > :35:28.could not get a maths, physics or modern languages teacher and I
:35:29. > :35:31.thought somebody straight from university, without qualified
:35:32. > :35:35.teachers start this, that they could communicate well with youngsters, I
:35:36. > :35:40.would get that person into the classroom and get them accredited if
:35:41. > :35:43.they delivered the goods. If we are going to allow schools to have more
:35:44. > :35:49.autonomy and not be accountable to local authorities, free schools
:35:50. > :35:53.academies, don't you have to do... New entrants will be coming into the
:35:54. > :36:01.market, the educational marketplace. Do you not have to act more quickly
:36:02. > :36:04.when it is clear, and there has been examined recently, where it is
:36:05. > :36:09.clearly going badly wrong and children's education at risk?
:36:10. > :36:11.Absolutely. I made a point to the secretary of state and it is
:36:12. > :36:15.something I will talk more about over the coming year. We need to be
:36:16. > :36:19.in school is much more often. If a school fails at the moment, or
:36:20. > :36:25.underperforms, goes into this new category, Her Majesty 's inspectors
:36:26. > :36:29.stay with that institution until it improves. Sometimes we don't see a
:36:30. > :36:33.school for five or seven years. That is wrong. My argument is that Ofsted
:36:34. > :36:36.should pay a much greater part in monitoring the performance of
:36:37. > :36:44.schools between those inspections. Are you enjoying it? It is a tough
:36:45. > :36:50.job. Are you enjoying it? This is a tough job, but I enjoy it.
:36:51. > :36:53.Sometimes. You are watching Sunday Politics.
:36:54. > :36:55.Coming up in just over 20 minutes, Diane Abbott will be joining us. And
:36:56. > :37:07.we will Hello and welcome to Sunday
:37:08. > :37:11.Politics. As the Haass talks enter what's
:37:12. > :37:14.expected to be their final phase, we focus on one of the big three issues
:37:15. > :37:16.- parading. Is a solution surrounding contentious parades a
:37:17. > :37:26.realistic possibility or a pipe-dream? Richard Haass has
:37:27. > :37:32.written the beginning of this report. He has probably written the
:37:33. > :37:38.end of it. What he is doing now is filling in the bits in the middle.
:37:39. > :37:41.Also on the programme - children's heart surgery in Belfast. We hear
:37:42. > :37:49.from one MLA who's been at the forefront of the campaign to retain
:37:50. > :37:53.the service. To discuss that and more my guests are the commentator
:37:54. > :37:56.Alex Kane and the former Victims' Commissioner Patricia McBride.
:37:57. > :37:59.Richard Haass arrives back in Belfast tomorrow for the final round
:38:00. > :38:03.of talks aimed at resolving the difficulties surrounding flags, the
:38:04. > :38:07.past and parading - and it is the last of those issues we turn to this
:38:08. > :38:09.morning. In a moment, the thoughts of the Parades' Commission chairman,
:38:10. > :38:12.Peter Osborne, but first, our Political Reporter, Stephen Walker,
:38:13. > :38:14.has been looking at the homework Dr Haass has handed out to the
:38:15. > :38:35.political parties. Richard Haass has made it clear that
:38:36. > :38:39.the next two weeks of the talks process will be crucial. Discussions
:38:40. > :38:45.will move from information gathering to negotiation. To that end he has
:38:46. > :38:51.set the political parties set of questions about flags, parades in
:38:52. > :38:54.the past. Richard Haass hopes the answers to these questions will form
:38:55. > :38:59.the basis of an agreement that all parties in the Executive can sign up
:39:00. > :39:05.to by the end of the year. Richard Haass and Meghan O'Sullivan have
:39:06. > :39:10.posed for questions on the issue of parades and protests. They want to
:39:11. > :39:13.know what criteria should be used by a parading body in making
:39:14. > :39:19.adjudications. Some insist the current system works. My view on the
:39:20. > :39:23.Parades Commission is it gets it right more often than wrong. When
:39:24. > :39:27.you step back and look at things in the context that the breeds
:39:28. > :39:32.commissioners working, in the past 30 years we have had a 35% increase
:39:33. > :39:37.in the number of loyal order parades. The number of contentious
:39:38. > :39:44.parades has only been 175 are something like that. Of those 175,
:39:45. > :39:49.only about 40% even get recommended route change. I do not think the
:39:50. > :39:56.commission has been particularly draconian in its judgements. Richard
:39:57. > :40:03.has also wants to examine how protesters, bands and an orange
:40:04. > :40:14.order members behave. He has proposed water new cloud of conduct
:40:15. > :40:23.might look like. -- cold of conduct. Code of conduct. The Parades
:40:24. > :40:26.Commission position with dealing with contentious issues. Do you
:40:27. > :40:31.think the code of conduct is strong enough? I think there are aspects of
:40:32. > :40:37.it that can be improved, strengthened. But it needs to be
:40:38. > :40:41.enacted. Doctor Haass also wants to know how the political independence
:40:42. > :40:48.of a reformed commission or new body would be established and maintained.
:40:49. > :40:53.Back in 19 into six, Doctor John Dunlop sat on a government committee
:40:54. > :40:57.that examined parading. Out of that work the Parades Commission was
:40:58. > :41:03.established. Doctor Dunlop insists any new body must have backing from
:41:04. > :41:08.all quarters. I would hope that this body would have the support of the
:41:09. > :41:15.local political leaders so that the local political leadership would be
:41:16. > :41:23.supportive of the decisions that are taken. The decisions are going to
:41:24. > :41:32.have to be made every have political accommodation. This is where the
:41:33. > :41:39.accommodation has helped. The country together to discuss parades.
:41:40. > :41:46.Businessmen have been involved in local discussions. That model cannot
:41:47. > :41:56.be transplanted into other areas, but the ethos behind it can. The
:41:57. > :42:00.ethos is less look at how we can make it work for all sides. Richard
:42:01. > :42:09.Haass also wants to know how members of a parading body may be that.
:42:10. > :42:19.Unionist politician and Orangemen want it to be looked at. He also
:42:20. > :42:24.thinks that process is also predetermined. I worry he is dealing
:42:25. > :42:30.with stupid people who cannot see the traps and tricks that are in his
:42:31. > :42:37.questions. These last four questions in the 14 he put earlier on. They
:42:38. > :42:44.are heading into a trap which tells me I think we are right. That tells
:42:45. > :42:47.me Richard Haass has written the beginning hovers report, crucially,
:42:48. > :42:53.he has probably written the end of it. What he is doing now is filling
:42:54. > :42:58.in the bits in the middle. His agenda has been completed. Richard
:42:59. > :43:02.Haass has spent much of the past few months asking tough and difficult
:43:03. > :43:14.questions. By the end of the year, we will discover that those who
:43:15. > :43:17.govern us can agree on the answers. Stephen Walker reporting. We did ask
:43:18. > :43:21.the Orange Order to take part in that report but it declined to make
:43:22. > :43:24.anyone available. What, then, is the view of the man in charge of
:43:25. > :43:27.parading at the moment? The Parades' Commission chairman, Peter Osborne,
:43:28. > :43:32.is nearing the end of his tenure. When I spoke to him, I began by
:43:33. > :43:34.asking him if Dr Haass is asking the right questions.
:43:35. > :43:36.I think they are among the questions that are right. The context of those
:43:37. > :43:41.questions are increasingly people are acknowledging there is going to
:43:42. > :43:48.be a need for an arbitration body, similar to the Parades Commission.
:43:49. > :43:52.The criteria around which and accord around which that that body works
:43:53. > :43:58.needs to be explored and needs to be strengthened because presumably the
:43:59. > :44:02.Parades Commission is not perfect at the moment and improvements are
:44:03. > :44:07.needed? I do not think anybody is perfect.
:44:08. > :44:11.There are issues around how the commission works at that can be
:44:12. > :44:21.improved as well. There needs to be a much greater clarity around their
:44:22. > :44:28.parade organiser and that needs to look -- to be looked at in context.
:44:29. > :44:33.It is pretty ridiculous that the arbitration body does not get
:44:34. > :44:41.information around toileting arrangements or alcohol management.
:44:42. > :44:45.In this Julie Stritch and unlike other two restrictions, there are no
:44:46. > :44:49.set times for parades. The commission has the ability to look
:44:50. > :44:58.at that but in other places around America, parades do not take place
:44:59. > :45:01.after dark. Do you take the comment that the Parades Commission as it
:45:02. > :45:08.stands has failed? I do not accept that. It has played a significant
:45:09. > :45:13.role in improving the parading environment, it has done a huge
:45:14. > :45:17.amount of work around working with people and bringing fair and
:45:18. > :45:28.balanced decisions to areas where there was significant in contentious
:45:29. > :45:41.parades. One bands in whom reached -- who breached headers --... There
:45:42. > :45:45.are a number of sensitive interfaces. These have seen recent
:45:46. > :45:52.violence and largely that violence has been visible to the police. I
:45:53. > :45:55.have been hugely impressed by the bravery, the resilience and the
:45:56. > :46:00.restraint shown by the police service to handle the kind of
:46:01. > :46:05.violence that has visited over them. The question here is about behaviour
:46:06. > :46:16.and interfaces. When that behaviour is not appropriate, it is imperative
:46:17. > :46:18.that everyone shows the same courage to condemn the inappropriate
:46:19. > :46:24.behaviour. That is what increases tension and brings people on the
:46:25. > :46:30.streets to visit violence on our police. People need to stand up and
:46:31. > :46:37.condemn and not seeing things that will be seen as encouraging it. Is
:46:38. > :46:46.that what you are seeing Nelson was doing? He can answer for himself.
:46:47. > :46:50.Politicians, especially from that community, need to stand back and be
:46:51. > :46:56.genuine civic leaders and condemn that sort of behaviour when it
:46:57. > :47:01.happens. The PSNI shall bravery that is for everybody in the community.
:47:02. > :47:07.They need support from you, me and any other civic leader who has a
:47:08. > :47:12.role to play. Today the police announced that the organiser of last
:47:13. > :47:19.week's parade is to be prosecuted. RU happy about that? I am not happy
:47:20. > :47:24.about any body being prosecuted. It will have a detrimental impact on
:47:25. > :47:27.their lives. There is some bad leadership in Northern Ireland at
:47:28. > :47:32.the moment, as a result of which some young people are being arrested
:47:33. > :47:36.and prosecuted and ending up with criminal records that they shouldn't
:47:37. > :47:40.have. I think there will be a few consequences to that, not related to
:47:41. > :47:48.the civic changes in the mind, they have been told there has been a 30%
:47:49. > :47:55.decrease in football in the city centre. It will lead to people
:47:56. > :47:57.having to talk about strengthening the legislation, there are issues
:47:58. > :48:02.that need to be addressed. People will see that when traditional
:48:03. > :48:10.parades start next year which go through the city centre net -- in an
:48:11. > :48:13.afternoon, they will ask about the cumulative effects. I think they are
:48:14. > :48:17.counter-productive to what people want to achieve, I feel to see the
:48:18. > :48:24.logic of those people organising these parades. Music there will be
:48:25. > :48:27.another Saturday parade like we saw last weekend between now and
:48:28. > :48:33.Christmas? People have latched onto this as a tactic. We will continue
:48:34. > :48:37.to do our job and so will the police, with bravery, resilience and
:48:38. > :48:47.restraint, if that means people break the law, people will have to
:48:48. > :48:50.face the consequences of that. Peter Osborne speaking to me on
:48:51. > :48:55.Thursday night. Let's hear the thoughts of my guests Alex Kane and
:48:56. > :48:58.Patricia McBride. Alex - seen anything during the Haass process
:48:59. > :49:01.that'd change your view in the summer that there'll be no agreement
:49:02. > :49:08.on parades? I do not think there will be an agreement on slides or
:49:09. > :49:12.anything. We saw an interview a few weeks ago with a series of
:49:13. > :49:17.politicians, were the continued to argue over the same things. There is
:49:18. > :49:21.no sense that any small things are agreed. It would take a Christmas
:49:22. > :49:31.miracle and I am not expecting that to happen. Alex also wrote in that
:49:32. > :49:35.article "Mr Haass is coming here in his role as conjuror. He has been
:49:36. > :49:58.brought over because the politicians have failed to resolve this issue.
:49:59. > :50:04.Are you any more optimistic? It was an initial warm welcome. As things
:50:05. > :50:08.move on, I become more concerned. One of my key issues about concern
:50:09. > :50:12.is the lack of engagement of the British and Irish governments. Both
:50:13. > :50:16.were involved in the conflict so they have to be involved in this
:50:17. > :50:21.process. That will damage the output of any recommendations that will
:50:22. > :50:26.come out of this process. Richard Haass has made it clear that this is
:50:27. > :50:31.something that needs to be solved by local politicians locally. What did
:50:32. > :50:39.you make of Peter Osborne's comments? I think he is spot on when
:50:40. > :50:42.he says that. We are in a society that is transitioning out of
:50:43. > :50:48.conflict where we have to pay respect to the rule of law. If all
:50:49. > :50:54.law is broken, there has to be a sanction for that. It is interesting
:50:55. > :50:58.looking back at the report where we saw how the ethos of the model that
:50:59. > :51:02.has been brought into place in Derry could be transferred to other
:51:03. > :51:08.communities. That is a positive but alongside that there has to be a
:51:09. > :51:11.strong sanction for when a condo -- code of conduct is breached that
:51:12. > :51:17.there is a strong sanction for that. A robust interview from Peter
:51:18. > :51:22.Osborne there. It could be one of his last. I need for a civic
:51:23. > :51:30.leadership and stronger legislation around parading. Do you agree? You
:51:31. > :51:36.hear the frustration he has about that. It does not matter what
:51:37. > :51:41.legislation you have, parading is about identity, they won't agree on
:51:42. > :51:50.that. Thank you both very much for now. We will hear more from you wait
:51:51. > :51:53.in the programme. A decision to retain a cardiac service at the
:51:54. > :51:56.Royal Belfast Hospital for Sick Children is expected this week.
:51:57. > :51:59.Last week the Health Minister, Edwin Poots, said he hoped to announce a
:52:00. > :52:03.decision within days, but so far that hasn't happened. I'm joined now
:52:04. > :52:06.by the Ulster Unionist MLA, Robin Swann, whose own ten-month-old son
:52:07. > :52:08.Evan has undergone heart surgery in Birmingham.
:52:09. > :52:20.Good news and that is that Evan is much better now. He had fantastic
:52:21. > :52:23.here in Belfast. Unfortunately we were one of those families that had
:52:24. > :52:32.to go to Birmingham for the heart operation. There are other families
:52:33. > :52:36.who are maybe sitting in limbo. It is difficult for you and your family
:52:37. > :52:40.because you are wearing the hat of a concerned parent, but you are also
:52:41. > :52:46.leading for your party on this issue and campaigning for services to
:52:47. > :52:50.remain. Is that difficult for you to do both things at the same time? It
:52:51. > :52:54.was a difficult decision for us personally to come into this as it
:52:55. > :53:00.politician or a father. When I got involved with the other parents and
:53:01. > :53:05.charities in Belfast, it was obvious to me that the position I hold is
:53:06. > :53:25.one should be holding -- using to make a difference. We have more than
:53:26. > :53:29.one party signed up to it. He has a big issue to wrestle with here, he
:53:30. > :53:34.hoped to have a decision on the public domain. That hasn't happened
:53:35. > :53:40.yet. He is giving an update tomorrow in the assembly. One of the things
:53:41. > :53:48.we have campaigned for is to side approach from Belfast or Dublin with
:53:49. > :53:51.a can have surgery in both centres. The option of putting children
:53:52. > :53:59.across the water for a routine surgery puts a big strain on
:54:00. > :54:07.families will top --. Do you think that is what the Minister would like
:54:08. > :54:10.to be announcing? Medical practitioners in Dublin would have
:54:11. > :54:15.to agree to that, wouldn't they? That will be the biggest challenge.
:54:16. > :54:19.That is where the challengers. I think it is something that can be
:54:20. > :54:29.resolved. From what I have been told, there is talk of bringing an
:54:30. > :54:39.American surgeon over. To let them say how Diehl said systems can
:54:40. > :54:45.work. -- dual side. How frustrating is it for you as a parent and to
:54:46. > :54:51.take a political lead on this, to keep waiting to find out when these
:54:52. > :54:55.discussions will take place? It is frustrating as a parent and as a
:54:56. > :55:01.politician. We were resigned that we were going to Birmingham. The
:55:02. > :55:06.transfer team worked at the end of the court ready to put into an air
:55:07. > :55:19.ambulance. That frustration is there, there are families out there
:55:20. > :55:24.in the same position. The lead cardiac surgeon retires tomorrow. It
:55:25. > :55:28.is important that a decision is taken. There is a lot of people
:55:29. > :55:33.dependent on the outcome. Again, this decision has been to use in the
:55:34. > :55:37.making and we have always said all along we want the right decision
:55:38. > :55:41.which is Belfast and Dublin. We are getting to the stage now where it is
:55:42. > :55:47.dragging on and dragging on and needed decisions. How sure are you
:55:48. > :55:53.that there will be clarity brought to the situation? Tomorrow's
:55:54. > :56:00.statement will not give us the answer. I hope there is enough
:56:01. > :56:04.concrete evidence that we will be looking to a solution in the early
:56:05. > :56:08.part of the New Year. Their parents here today who do not know where
:56:09. > :56:14.their son or daughter will be operated on. We hope that Evan
:56:15. > :56:19.enjoys his first Christmas at home. Thank you very much indeed. A quick
:56:20. > :56:23.word from my guests about that. Patricia, a lot of people waiting to
:56:24. > :56:29.hear what the Minister will say. I have great sympathy with that. I too
:56:30. > :56:35.had a critically ill child. The issue here is about the resilience
:56:36. > :56:38.of parents and children. When you have a critically ill child you need
:56:39. > :56:43.the support structure of your friends and family to help you to
:56:44. > :56:47.deal with that illness, to help you so you compare your child. The
:56:48. > :56:51.correct solution here isn't all Ireland solution where we have a
:56:52. > :56:55.joint service arrangements between Belfast and Dublin so the children
:56:56. > :57:08.are staying in Ireland and we are not part of a brain drain where
:57:09. > :57:12.people go elsewhere. Let's press the pause button for a moment. Thank you
:57:13. > :57:19.very much for now and we will take a look at the week gone past in 60
:57:20. > :57:30.Seconds. Tributes were paid to Nelson
:57:31. > :57:37.Mandela. Whenever South Africa this -- resolve the issue of our party
:57:38. > :57:48.and, that made people think of what was happening here. -- apartheid.
:57:49. > :57:54.For any failings identified in the report on the part of the state, I
:57:55. > :57:58.am truly sorry. David Ford says he will consult on changing the
:57:59. > :58:03.abortion laws full top I suspect some people respond by saying they
:58:04. > :58:09.should be no change. Others will say they see a significant widening of
:58:10. > :58:12.it. There is a public case for a narrow change. The Chancellor said
:58:13. > :58:22.we are all going to have to work longer in the trade Stormont -- tree
:58:23. > :58:26.instrument was the first casualty. -- tree in Stormont.
:58:27. > :58:36.Stephen Walker reporting. A few final thoughts. We cannot go without
:58:37. > :58:41.reflecting on the passing of Nelson Mandela. It has dominated the news
:58:42. > :58:47.since Thursday when it was announced. Martin McGuinness hopes
:58:48. > :58:51.to attend the funeral. He was the one person that made the whole world
:58:52. > :58:56.think about terrorism in a slightly different way. The important thing
:58:57. > :59:01.about Mandela was he did come across as a change maker. He decided he
:59:02. > :59:08.wanted to make a difference and make sure people did not go down the same
:59:09. > :59:13.path. It is fine that Martin McGuinness should go, it disturbs me
:59:14. > :59:20.that Sinn Fein are going out of their way to draw a parallel between
:59:21. > :59:23.Adams and Mandela. They are to completely different people with two
:59:24. > :59:43.completely different backgrounds. Fergal Keane's comment struck a
:59:44. > :59:47.chord. We should learn lessons from that. In terms of the personal
:59:48. > :59:53.memory, the one and only time when I was close to Nelson Mandela was it a
:59:54. > :59:56.ticker tape parade in New York City after his release. We will leave it
:59:57. > :59:58.there. Tomorrow, the House of Commons will
:59:59. > :00:22.pay its tributes to Nelson Mandela. Our nation has lost its greatest
:00:23. > :00:48.son. Our people have lost a father. The first thing I ever did that
:00:49. > :00:49.involved an issue or policy, or politics, was protest against
:00:50. > :01:02.apartheid. I think his greatest legacy, to
:01:03. > :01:11.South Africa and to the world, is the emphasis which he has always put
:01:12. > :01:19.on the need for a conciliation, on the importance of human rights. He
:01:20. > :01:24.also made us understand that we can change the world. We can change the
:01:25. > :01:29.world by changing attitudes, by changing perceptions. For this
:01:30. > :01:39.reason, I would like to pay him tribute as a great human being, who
:01:40. > :01:48.raised the standard of humanity. Thank you for the gift of Madiba.
:01:49. > :01:58.Thank you for what he has enabled us to know we can become.
:01:59. > :02:07.We are joined now by the Labour MP Diane Abbott. You met Mr Mandela not
:02:08. > :02:13.one after he was released from prison in 1990. He went as an
:02:14. > :02:17.election observer for the first one person, one-vote in South Africa. I
:02:18. > :02:20.would guess, of all the people you met in your life, you must have been
:02:21. > :02:26.the most impressive and biggest influence? He was extraordinary. He
:02:27. > :02:30.had just come out of prison, 28 years in reason. He had seen a lot
:02:31. > :02:36.of his colleagues tortured, blown up and killed. He was entirely without
:02:37. > :02:41.bitterness. That is what came across. That was key to his
:02:42. > :02:46.achievement, to achieve a peaceful transition. Everybody thought that
:02:47. > :02:49.if you have black majority rule, you might have a bloodbath. It's down to
:02:50. > :02:54.Nelson Mandela but didn't happen. I remember FW de Klerk saying that
:02:55. > :03:03.Mandela was the key to getting a peaceful transition. Absolutely the
:03:04. > :03:09.key, an amazing man. London was one of the centres, people talked about
:03:10. > :03:12.it as being the other centre of the anti-apartheid struggle. That
:03:13. > :03:17.anti-apartheid struggle in London, it had an effect on black politics
:03:18. > :03:22.in Britain? Oh, yes. If you were black and politically active at the
:03:23. > :03:26.time, the apartheid struggle, the struggle against white supremacy in
:03:27. > :03:30.South Africa, was very important. Whatever your colour, the
:03:31. > :03:36.anti-apartheid struggle, for our generation, was the political
:03:37. > :03:39.campaign. We have the 50th anniversary of Kennedy's
:03:40. > :03:43.assassination. Mr Mandela's death. We are kind of running out of people
:03:44. > :03:47.that inspired us? I will never forget where I was when I saw him
:03:48. > :03:53.come out of prison, hand-in-hand with the women, I might add. If you
:03:54. > :03:57.have spent your whole teenage years and 20 is boycotting, marching,
:03:58. > :04:05.picketing, to see him actually come out was amazing. Do you think it was
:04:06. > :04:12.more exciting to meet you or the Spice Girls? I think the Spice
:04:13. > :04:15.Girls. What did the Labour backbenchers think about Ed Balls's
:04:16. > :04:20.performance after the Autumn Statement? Luck, Ed Balls is a
:04:21. > :04:24.brilliant man, but I think even he would say that it was not his best
:04:25. > :04:28.performance. But if you look at the polls, the public liked the points
:04:29. > :04:33.he made. The backbenchers were quiet, there was something wrong? I
:04:34. > :04:38.noticed that. It was like a wall of sound, deliberately. They know that
:04:39. > :04:41.under pressure his stamina might come back and it is difficult for
:04:42. > :04:48.him. That is what they were trying to incite. I have had experience
:04:49. > :04:51.first hand, a look at all of these anonymous and sometimes not
:04:52. > :05:03.anonymous quotes in the media. The spinning has begun against him? This
:05:04. > :05:07.is the party of brotherly love, no matter what the Tories say, we can
:05:08. > :05:13.say worse about each other. How could it be that two former aides to
:05:14. > :05:18.Gordon Brown do not like each other? Far be it from me to say. If he
:05:19. > :05:23.wanted to do it, and I'm not saying he does, is Mr Miliband ruthless
:05:24. > :05:27.enough to get rid of Ed Balls? I mean, he got rid of you, he got rid
:05:28. > :05:32.of his brother? One thing you should not do is under estimate Ed
:05:33. > :05:37.Miliband's capacity for ruthlessness. If he feels it is the
:05:38. > :05:40.right thing to do, he will do it. It's not just a matter of... Ed
:05:41. > :05:44.Balls is a big, powerful personality. He's great to interview
:05:45. > :05:49.because he is across his subject, you can have a really good argument
:05:50. > :05:54.with him, a man that knows his brief, his facts. But it's not just
:05:55. > :06:00.about the personality. There is a kind of sense that Labour needs to
:06:01. > :06:03.look forwards more on economic policy. Of course, the standard of
:06:04. > :06:09.living has been hugely successful for Labour. But it needs more than
:06:10. > :06:12.that on economic policy? I think he has been one of the most effective
:06:13. > :06:18.member 's Shadow Cabinet, and he's always associated with the Brown
:06:19. > :06:21.years, where there is always an element about, you were the guys
:06:22. > :06:25.that got it wrong. I think Ed Miliband will be very tempted to
:06:26. > :06:29.replace him with Alistair Darling. The scenario goes like this,
:06:30. > :06:32.Alistair Darling saves the union and then in September he saves the
:06:33. > :06:37.Labour Party. Ultimately, I don't think he would do it. Talk about
:06:38. > :06:42.shifting tectonic plates, it would, wouldn't it? But it is a step too
:06:43. > :06:50.far. Ed Balls would not be too happy. It is not something you would
:06:51. > :06:57.want to do lightly. That sounds a bit of a threat. Not from you. I
:06:58. > :07:03.can't see Ed Balls magnanimously retreating and say, go on, Alistair
:07:04. > :07:07.Darling, take the job I have been after all career. Where do you put
:07:08. > :07:11.him? Do you make him a middle ranking business or welfare
:07:12. > :07:15.secretary? He wouldn't do that. If you sack him, he would retreat to
:07:16. > :07:21.the backbenchers. He might take up knitting and practices piano scales,
:07:22. > :07:26.or he might have a blood feud with Ed Miliband. I don't know which
:07:27. > :07:30.could be. You look back to when he was schools Secretary, you could
:07:31. > :07:33.feel he was constantly fuming. I think he is better inside the tent,
:07:34. > :07:38.looking out, than the other way around. The thing one Labour
:07:39. > :07:41.strategist said to me was that he is too much looking into the rear-view
:07:42. > :07:45.mirror, when it comes to economic policy. He needs to look ahead
:07:46. > :07:51.through the windscreen. That had some resonance? He was at the centre
:07:52. > :07:56.of Labour's economic policy-making from the mid-90s. So it's hard for
:07:57. > :08:00.him but he has to look forward. There is an interesting comparison
:08:01. > :08:04.with 2009. Gordon Brown got in trouble when he said the choice is
:08:05. > :08:08.between Labour investment and Tory cuts. Everybody knew it was between
:08:09. > :08:12.Labour cuts and Tory cuts. In other words, he was not acknowledging
:08:13. > :08:16.reality. With Ed Balls, OK, we can say it is the wrong sort of
:08:17. > :08:19.recovery, but there is a recovery. Does he not need to absorb that
:08:20. > :08:27.punch and say there is a recovery, then people will listen to him?
:08:28. > :08:29.Possibly. We know that the macroeconomics are looking better.
:08:30. > :08:33.We also know people are not experiencing it as a recovery in
:08:34. > :08:39.living standards. No one, not even Tories, really believe that David
:08:40. > :08:43.Cameron knows what it is like for middle-income people to live normal
:08:44. > :08:46.lives. Living standards is particularly powerful because of the
:08:47. > :08:51.composition of the government? Don't go away. This time last year we
:08:52. > :08:54.ambushed our political panel with a quiz. They didn't come out of it
:08:55. > :08:58.smelling of roses, but they did come out rather smelly.
:08:59. > :09:08.Will the coalition still be in place a year from now? Yes. Definitely. I
:09:09. > :09:15.say definitely as well. From now, one year, will we know the date of
:09:16. > :09:21.the European referendum? Yes. No. I say no as well. How much growth will
:09:22. > :09:27.there be? Less than 1%. Father Christmas is less qualified than me,
:09:28. > :09:35.but I will go for one. I will go for a quarter of that. 0.4%. Sorry, a
:09:36. > :09:41.third of that. I am with you, and 1%. We didn't do too badly. What
:09:42. > :09:47.will growth be next year? I will remind you, the OBR has upgraded to
:09:48. > :09:52.2.4%. Better stick with the OBR, got it wrong last year. Well, they went
:09:53. > :09:57.down in March and then went back in December. I'm going to go under and
:09:58. > :10:04.claim credit where it's higher. I'm going to say 1%. Deliberately get it
:10:05. > :10:07.wrong. Given our record, if we say there is going to be spectacular
:10:08. > :10:14.growth, does it mean we're going to go into recession? There is
:10:15. > :10:19.incentive to be cautious. 2%. 2.4%, because the housing market in London
:10:20. > :10:24.is rocketing. It would be closer to 3% and 2.4, mark my words. We'll Ed
:10:25. > :10:36.Balls be Shadow Chancellor by this time next year? Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes,
:10:37. > :10:39.I value my life. Will UKIP mean the European elections, by which I mean
:10:40. > :10:50.have the highest percentage of the vote? Yes. Second behind Labour.
:10:51. > :10:53.Second behind Labour. Will Alex Salmond win the independence
:10:54. > :10:59.referendum? No, but it will be closer than we think. No, unless
:11:00. > :11:08.they do something catastrophic like let Cameron debate him. Too close to
:11:09. > :11:13.call. Controversial. How many Romanians and Bulgarians will come
:11:14. > :11:20.to Britain in 2014? Far fewer than anyone thinks. The entire population
:11:21. > :11:25.of Romania and Bulgaria, like Nigel Farage thanks. I'll go with that,
:11:26. > :11:31.I'm confident. A change of tone for your magazine. Not many will come,
:11:32. > :11:32.but a lot here already will normalise and be counted into
:11:33. > :11:35.figures. Too many for most normalise and be counted into
:11:36. > :11:40.figures. Too many for most right-wing commentators. I think
:11:41. > :11:47.quite a few will come, but not the kind of numbers that made such a
:11:48. > :11:54.huge difference. This time, everybody is open. They do like to
:11:55. > :11:58.speak English, that is the reason they want to come. We'll all three
:11:59. > :12:05.of you still be here by this time next year? Yes. Would you recommend
:12:06. > :12:11.that? Yes, keep them. And he has lovely boots. Shiny red boots. If
:12:12. > :12:20.you can keep affording me, I will be here. I hope so, it sounds like you
:12:21. > :12:28.have a firing squad outside. I hope so, maybe you will find some true
:12:29. > :12:32.talent. Very pragmatic, aren't they? Let me put this to you, I think you
:12:33. > :12:38.will agree. The coalition will not break now, this side of the election
:12:39. > :12:44.next year? There will not be... They will not go their own ways by this
:12:45. > :12:52.time next year? Of next year, maybe just after. Early 2015. This side of
:12:53. > :12:57.the election? What is the UKIP view? I don't think there is an advantage
:12:58. > :13:01.to either of them. If the Lib Dems pulled out, they would look like
:13:02. > :13:05.there were a lodger in the Tory house of government. I think it
:13:06. > :13:08.would suit the Lib Dems to break just before the election. I think
:13:09. > :13:12.that is what Vince Cable wants to do. I don't think it is what Nick
:13:13. > :13:19.Clegg would like to do. The Tories would love it. They would have all
:13:20. > :13:21.of the toys to themselves. Yellow marker they would look like the
:13:22. > :13:26.grown-ups. The problem for Vince Cable is that he's not the force
:13:27. > :13:30.that used to be after his temper tantrum at the Conference.
:13:31. > :13:37.I will be back with the Daily Politics next week. If Santer gives
:13:38. > :13:43.you a diary in your stocking, pencil in Sunday the 20th of January, the
:13:44. > :13:49.first Sunday Politics of 2014. Remember, if it is Sunday, it is the
:13:50. > :13:52.Sunday Politics. Unless it is Christmas. And New Year.