:00:38. > :00:46.David Cameron says he's hopeful for a deal next month
:00:47. > :00:51.on a new relationship between Britain and the European Union.
:00:52. > :00:58.Is momentum building for a referendum this summer?
:00:59. > :01:00.He sacked two ministers, prompting three to resign
:01:01. > :01:04.but is Jeremy Corbyn in a more powerful position at the end
:01:05. > :01:07.of a tumultuous week for the Labour Party?
:01:08. > :01:11.We'll speak to Shadow Cabinet Minister Lucy Powell.
:01:12. > :01:14.Junior doctors defy Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt
:01:15. > :01:17.And in Northern Ireland: She's about to take on the role
:01:18. > :01:19.of First Minister, so what are the main issues facing
:01:20. > :01:21.Arlene Foster and what kind of relationship will she forge
:01:22. > :01:26.and we will talking about fares, housing, and whether things
:01:27. > :01:40.We're ten days into 2016 and we've not sacked them and they've not
:01:41. > :01:44.resigned yet, so with me, the best and the brightest political
:01:45. > :01:51.panel in the business, Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh.
:01:52. > :01:53.So David Cameron toured Europe last week continuing his re-negotiation
:01:54. > :01:55.of Britain's EU membership ahead of the referendum.
:01:56. > :01:58.He knows that whatever he comes back with will not persuade
:01:59. > :02:03.So they will be free to campaign for an exit.
:02:04. > :02:06.But this morning the Prime Minister made it clearer than ever
:02:07. > :02:08.that he would be campaigning to stay in the EU.
:02:09. > :02:19.My aim is clear, the best of both worlds for Britain, the massive
:02:20. > :02:23.prize of sorting out what frustrates us about Europe, but staying in a
:02:24. > :02:28.reformed Europe. The prize is closer than it was and I will work around
:02:29. > :02:32.the clock to get that done. The government will not be neutral about
:02:33. > :02:36.this issue with people on one side or the other, my intention is that
:02:37. > :02:39.at the conclusion of the negotiation, the Cabinet reaches a
:02:40. > :02:44.clear recommendation for the British people on what we will do. I hope
:02:45. > :02:49.that we'll be staying in a reformed European Union, because I have got a
:02:50. > :02:51.good negotiation for Britain. At that point, clear government
:02:52. > :03:05.position, members of the Cabinet, ministers with
:03:06. > :03:06.long-standing, long-held views on a different basis, they will be able
:03:07. > :03:07.to campaign. And we're joined now
:03:08. > :03:19.by the eurosceptic Conservative MP, Who should lead the out campaign? I
:03:20. > :03:23.do not think personalities matter. The Prime Minister matters because
:03:24. > :03:28.he has a big personality. For the out campaign, you have Nigella
:03:29. > :03:32.Lawson, other people. No doubt you will have four five Cabinet
:03:33. > :03:36.ministers. Does it not need to be a better known public figure than
:03:37. > :03:42.Nigel Lawson, who was Chancellor in the 1980s, or Chris Grayling or even
:03:43. > :03:46.yourself? No, people will not make their decision on the basis of which
:03:47. > :03:51.pretty face is leading the campaign. They will make it on one basis
:03:52. > :03:57.alone, will it be good for my job or bad for my job? The argument will be
:03:58. > :04:03.about economic is, jobs, not these other bogus numbers that come up, it
:04:04. > :04:08.will be about my job, is my industry protected? Boris Johnson, Theresa
:04:09. > :04:14.May? There will be lots of our timid in Westminster, should Boris lead,
:04:15. > :04:18.it will not matter. What matters is the tactics and strategy. That will
:04:19. > :04:24.be decided before the conclusion of the negotiation. Nigel Farage has
:04:25. > :04:26.had a torrid time since the general election, culminating in the
:04:27. > :04:34.assassination attempt that apparently was not. Is he a
:04:35. > :04:39.liability to the leave campaign? No, probably not. He has about 3 million
:04:40. > :04:47.people who are supporting him. Some of them in his party? He is his
:04:48. > :04:51.party, to a large extent. I do not think is a liability, everyone knows
:04:52. > :04:56.what he and his party are like. Has he got lots of credibility? It has
:04:57. > :05:01.slipped backwards since the general election. I do not think the parties
:05:02. > :05:05.matter. The personalities do not matter. This will be a personal
:05:06. > :05:11.decision. What percentage of Tory MPs do you reckon we'll leave? It is
:05:12. > :05:15.a majority, I do not know what the number will be. If you did it
:05:16. > :05:21.tomorrow and there was no other effect, probably two thirds. Really,
:05:22. > :05:25.is that including the payroll vote? Yes. So two thirds of the
:05:26. > :05:31.Conservative Parliamentary party will vote to leave? Yes, if you did
:05:32. > :05:36.it tomorrow. But you have to be in mind the dynamics. You, like me,
:05:37. > :05:39.have lived through a lot of prime ministers and ministers returning
:05:40. > :05:44.from Europe and declaring victory. They arrive on Monday at 330 and
:05:45. > :05:49.declare their victory. We have no other information. None of it is
:05:50. > :05:53.published, the decisions had been taken in private with no
:05:54. > :06:00.journalists. There will be a sort of wave out of that. Out of that, two
:06:01. > :06:06.thirds will evaporate. Come the day, even 50% of the Conservative Party?
:06:07. > :06:11.I should think so. How many Cabinet ministers will exercise their right
:06:12. > :06:17.to campaign to leave? Not more than half a dozen, 56 maybe. I cannot
:06:18. > :06:23.think of more. Iain Duncan Smith? Iain Duncan Smith, maybe Theresa
:06:24. > :06:29.May, maybe sad you jab it, certainly Chris Grayling. Maybe Iain Duncan
:06:30. > :06:32.Smith. What is your reaction this morning to the story that senior
:06:33. > :06:38.officials in Downing Street are vetting or altering speeches by
:06:39. > :06:45.ministers to tone down Eurosceptic comments? My speeches go back 20
:06:46. > :06:53.years or so. Is this the start of the government machine getting
:06:54. > :06:56.moving? Yes. There are three things David Cameron said that were
:06:57. > :06:59.important. David Cameron made it plain that the government machine
:07:00. > :07:06.will go crazy on one side of this side image. It has started. Nothing
:07:07. > :07:10.unusual in that, by the way. David Cameron might get some sort of deal
:07:11. > :07:15.which curtails in work benefits for migrants. Is that a game changer,
:07:16. > :07:21.does it change it his way? He said, or something equally powerful, not
:07:22. > :07:25.important at all. Why do people come from Romania to hear? They come
:07:26. > :07:33.because the minimum wage is twice as big as the average wage in Rumania.
:07:34. > :07:36.And about to get bigger. In 2020, according to the Treasury strategy,
:07:37. > :07:43.tax credits will not matter, which is why they wanted to abolish them.
:07:44. > :07:49.In 2020, this whole strategy will be relevant. What is your best guess
:07:50. > :07:53.for the date of the referendum? Probably September this year. Not in
:07:54. > :07:58.summer? It might, but they have limitations built into the law. If
:07:59. > :08:02.they get it through in February, they might get the summer, but I do
:08:03. > :08:06.not think they will get it through in February. Bear in mind they have
:08:07. > :08:11.four basic claims, only one of which has really been talked about at the
:08:12. > :08:16.moment. Some of the others, the parliamentary proposals, the defence
:08:17. > :08:19.of the city, the euro, all of this, it will either be just words and not
:08:20. > :08:26.matter, which is weird lips at the moment, or it will be serious. The
:08:27. > :08:30.city basically needs a veto in European legislation relating to
:08:31. > :08:34.financial services. If it does not get that, it is meaningless. If
:08:35. > :08:38.David Cameron loses the referendum, does he have to resign as Prime
:08:39. > :08:45.Minister? That is the least important question. Is there an
:08:46. > :08:50.answer? I do not know. Should they? Not necessarily, it depends on how
:08:51. > :08:55.it goes with the terms. He said this morning there is no plans for a
:08:56. > :09:00.British exit. This is disgraceful. You have two moderately likely
:09:01. > :09:06.outcomes. We do not know which will be. There were no plans for Scottish
:09:07. > :09:10.independence. I suspect there were. There are no plans for the British
:09:11. > :09:14.exit and that is serious because it is a complicated operation to carry
:09:15. > :09:18.out if it happens. We will be returning to you, David Davis, thank
:09:19. > :09:21.you. Nick, there is no doubt that the
:09:22. > :09:26.Prime Minister is gearing up to campaign disdain with he brings back
:09:27. > :09:30.from Brussels. Absolutely, he is determined to keep Britain in the
:09:31. > :09:33.European Union. His official languages that he wants to
:09:34. > :09:38.renegotiate better terms and if he gets the right deal, he will keep
:09:39. > :09:41.them, but the mask slip today when Andrew Marr asked about British
:09:42. > :09:46.exit, the preparations for that, and he said it was not the right answer.
:09:47. > :09:50.Today, the other interesting things he did was a reprieve is of the
:09:51. > :09:57.Scottish referendum. He was saying that if you are -- that if you lost
:09:58. > :10:01.the referendum he would not resign. He wants to get that message out
:10:02. > :10:06.there because he wants to kill the idea of a link between his future
:10:07. > :10:10.and the referendum results. With the Scottish referendum, in private they
:10:11. > :10:13.prepared a resignation later. He made clear to Andrew Marr this
:10:14. > :10:17.morning that the government machine is not going to be neutral, it will
:10:18. > :10:21.back David Cameron. That is one of the reasons I would disagree with
:10:22. > :10:27.David Davis and say that the out campaign needs a big figurehead. You
:10:28. > :10:31.will have the full weight of an institutional machine behind the yes
:10:32. > :10:38.vote. On the out said, we have Nigel Farage. He appeals to 3 million
:10:39. > :10:42.voters, but not a majority. There is a responsible case to be made. That
:10:43. > :10:47.is why someone like Boris Johnson will be pressured enormously to say
:10:48. > :10:52.which side he will jump for. If David Davis is right, and at least
:10:53. > :10:57.50% of the parliamentary party, including the payroll vote is going
:10:58. > :11:01.to vote to leave, many will campaign to leave, that is a massive problem
:11:02. > :11:05.for the Conservatives and David Cameron? The problem is especially
:11:06. > :11:11.acute if the final result is so narrow that the result can be
:11:12. > :11:15.plausibly attributed to a credible, sitting Conservative Prime Minister
:11:16. > :11:21.having campaigned to remain in. If Eurosceptic backbenchers are Cabinet
:11:22. > :11:26.minister can say, had David Cameron campaigned the other way, or less
:11:27. > :11:30.lasciviously, we might have got our lifetime's ambition to leave the
:11:31. > :11:35.European Union. If it is close, it will linger in the Tory party. It
:11:36. > :11:40.introduces poison. My guess is that the party will fall apart. I am much
:11:41. > :11:45.less certain than I was 18 months ago. They know they can govern for
:11:46. > :11:49.another nine years. Have we change the constitution? I think the
:11:50. > :11:54.presence of Germany Corbyn effectively guarantees the next
:11:55. > :11:58.election. -- the presence of Jeremy Corbyn. Thank you.
:11:59. > :12:00.So Jeremy Corbyn sacked two Shadow ministers and three resigned.
:12:01. > :12:03.Now another Labour MP says she can no longer work with the party's
:12:04. > :12:05.leadership in the wake of last week's reshuffle.
:12:06. > :12:08.Alison McGovern has told this programme that she is resigning
:12:09. > :12:12.from a policy review on child poverty after the pressure group
:12:13. > :12:15.she chairs was described as "right wing" and "Conservative"
:12:16. > :12:19.Labour say she's resigning from something that doesn't exist.
:12:20. > :12:22.As Labour's internal divisions become more acrimonious,
:12:23. > :12:25.can the different wings of the party continue to work with each other?
:12:26. > :12:39.A new year, a new start, but still the fireworks.
:12:40. > :12:44.But let's be honest, we have sort of got used to them.
:12:45. > :12:49.There was that vote on Syria which saw 67 Labour MPs disagree
:12:50. > :12:51.with their leader and vote with the government,
:12:52. > :12:57.not least because of that speech from Hilary Benn.
:12:58. > :13:02.Can I have a Green Clean Machine, please, with Siberian ginseng
:13:03. > :13:06.Jeremy Corbyn's new year resolution, we were led to believe,
:13:07. > :13:08.was to detoxify his party, starting with a reshuffle.
:13:09. > :13:10.Things had started appearing in some of the newspapers.
:13:11. > :13:12.There was talk of revenge, a dish best served cold.
:13:13. > :13:16.The leadership team denied any such briefing.
:13:17. > :13:23.But nothing actually happened until Tuesday when Michael Dugher,
:13:24. > :13:25.the then Shadow Culture Secretary tweeted, just been
:13:26. > :13:33.The day rattled on but it was not until after midnight that
:13:34. > :13:36.Pat McFadden was fired from his role as a Shadow Europe Minister.
:13:37. > :13:38.Both were accused of disloyalty by the leadership.
:13:39. > :13:43.What then followed was a raft of resignations.
:13:44. > :13:46.The first was Jonathan Reynolds in the Shadow Transport team.
:13:47. > :13:48.Then the Shadow Foreign Office Minister, who picked our programme
:13:49. > :13:52.I have just written to Jeremy Corbyn to resign from the front bench.
:13:53. > :13:55.I think things that are being said, that are being briefed at,
:13:56. > :13:58.that I've seen being briefed at this morning, are simply not true.
:13:59. > :14:00.Undoubtedly they will do that about other individuals,
:14:01. > :14:02.undoubtedly they will do that about me.
:14:03. > :14:04.Less than an hour later, Shadow Defence Minister Kevan Jones
:14:05. > :14:11.Jeremy Corbyn's right-hand man, John McDonnell, also
:14:12. > :14:14.We have had a few junior members resign today
:14:15. > :14:18.and that is their right, but they do all come from a narrow
:14:19. > :14:20.right wing clique within the Labour Party, based around
:14:21. > :14:28.I do not think they have ever really accepted Jeremy's mandate.
:14:29. > :14:31.Progress is seen broadly as the Blairite wing of the party.
:14:32. > :14:33.By the time the Shadow Chancellor was making those comments,
:14:34. > :14:36.I am told he was late for a meeting with the group's
:14:37. > :14:41.Alison McGovern says he asked to take part in Labour's policy
:14:42. > :14:44.review on the subject, a role from which the Sunday Politics can
:14:45. > :14:48.reveal she now feels she has to resign.
:14:49. > :14:51.I am there waiting to meet him to talk about it and all
:14:52. > :14:54.the while he had gone to the television studio to call
:14:55. > :14:57.the organisation that I am the chair of of having a hard right
:14:58. > :15:02.We are all Labour members and we believe in having
:15:03. > :15:06.That is what we are, nothing more, nothing less,
:15:07. > :15:09.and I do not want to be on the television talking
:15:10. > :15:13.about this, but I feel like I have been backed into a corner and I have
:15:14. > :15:16.no other choice now but to stand up and say,
:15:17. > :15:20.this is who we are and we should get on with the business of getting
:15:21. > :15:24.The rumours have centred around one man, because of this.
:15:25. > :15:29.It is now time for us to do our bit in Syria.
:15:30. > :15:32.But Hilary Benn kept his job as Shadow Foreign Secretary.
:15:33. > :15:34.The BBC understands a number of Shadow Cabinet ministers had
:15:35. > :15:38.threatened to walk out with him if he had been sacked.
:15:39. > :15:42.Other new frontbenchers have defended their boss.
:15:43. > :15:45.What Jeremy Corbyn has tried to do is to be consensual, to negotiate,
:15:46. > :15:48.not to hurt people's feelings and get the right team,
:15:49. > :15:51.and who says it has to be done in three hours or three days?
:15:52. > :15:54.This has not exactly been a happy new year for Labour.
:15:55. > :15:57.One Shadow Cabinet minister told me the handling of this
:15:58. > :16:03.Another former minister said it smacked of a leader more focused
:16:04. > :16:05.on consolidating his power internally and he was not looking
:16:06. > :16:10.It has left a bad taste in the mouths of a number of them.
:16:11. > :16:15.Actually, can I have a coffee instead?
:16:16. > :16:19.We're joined now from Salford by the Shadow Education Secretary,
:16:20. > :16:30.Welcome back to the programme. Was Jeremy Corbyn right to sack Michael
:16:31. > :16:36.Dugher from the Shadow Cabinet? Good morning to you as well. It is good
:16:37. > :16:40.to be zero. It has been a very difficult week for the Labour Party.
:16:41. > :16:46.How can I top it off, by having a nice friendly chat with you about
:16:47. > :16:49.the Labour Party? Was he right to sack Michael Dugher? I do not think
:16:50. > :16:52.that after the difficult week we have had, I week which everybody
:16:53. > :16:57.will be down to experience and learn the lessons from, that it is helpful
:16:58. > :17:01.to the Labour Party, and indeed politics as a whole, for us to pick
:17:02. > :17:05.through the events of that week. There is the moment to draw a line
:17:06. > :17:10.under what has happened this week and to focus on the job we have got,
:17:11. > :17:15.to be an effective opposition, to take this Tory government to task
:17:16. > :17:18.and to start to begin that detailed work of setting out Labour's vision
:17:19. > :17:23.and policies for the future, so that by the time of the next election, we
:17:24. > :17:26.have a real alternative to put on the table. OK, but you would agree
:17:27. > :17:33.the events are worthy of analysis and this is our first new programme
:17:34. > :17:37.of the new Year. Jeremy Corbyn's team briefed that Michael Dugher was
:17:38. > :17:41.incompetent. Do you think he was incompetent? The events of this week
:17:42. > :17:44.have had plenty of analysis over many days. Not on this programme.
:17:45. > :17:50.You have on your programme during the week as well. Was he
:17:51. > :17:53.incompetent? Michael Dugher is a very good colleague and he will
:17:54. > :17:56.serve the Labour Party well know from the backbenches, as he has done
:17:57. > :18:03.over many years from the front benches. After all that has happened
:18:04. > :18:08.this week, we retain a Shadow Cabinet, a Labour top team, that is
:18:09. > :18:15.a broad team. The team that I joined on that basis, and that spirit of a
:18:16. > :18:18.broad church remains. That is something I am pleased about, and
:18:19. > :18:23.together, we can do the job we have been asked to do, because we are not
:18:24. > :18:27.just Labour's Shadow Cabinet, we are the official opposition. The clue is
:18:28. > :18:33.in the name. It is our job to expose what the government is doing. That
:18:34. > :18:37.is my intention and Jeremy Corbyn's intention. Other members of the
:18:38. > :18:39.Shadow Cabinet, Charlie Falconer, have said we need to draw line under
:18:40. > :18:49.last week's events. Would you have stayed in the Shadow
:18:50. > :18:55.Cabinet if Hilary Benn had been sacked? I am not going to get drawn
:18:56. > :18:59.into nit-picking... It is a huge question because we were told 11
:19:00. > :19:04.Shadow Cabinet ministers had threatened to resign. You had been
:19:05. > :19:10.named in the number of reports as one of them, were you? It is a here
:19:11. > :19:19.political situation. Hilary Benn remains... The Shadow Cabinet
:19:20. > :19:23.remained intact as a broad team. My views were not sought nor offered.
:19:24. > :19:27.This is a matter for Jeremy Corbyn, he is the leader of the Labour Party
:19:28. > :19:32.and it is up to him to make decisions about the team and the
:19:33. > :19:36.Shadow Cabinet. One of the new members of your team is Emily corn
:19:37. > :19:41.bread, Shadow Defence Secretary. She says she does not know why Jeremy
:19:42. > :19:47.Corbyn made her Shadow Defence Secretary. Do you? Again it is not
:19:48. > :19:51.my view. I look forward to working with Emily and the rest of the
:19:52. > :19:55.Shadow Cabinet to develop those policies going forward. One of them
:19:56. > :20:01.is about the defence of our country and we will have a robust process,
:20:02. > :20:05.and very detailed process, where we put forward the argument and look at
:20:06. > :20:12.the evidence and the research and we will build a really good policy. Let
:20:13. > :20:16.me ask you about an issue on this. A lot of the reason people see why she
:20:17. > :20:21.has been appointed is quite clear. Your leader is against Trident and
:20:22. > :20:25.always has been, he put Ken Livingstone in charge of the Trident
:20:26. > :20:30.review, he now has a Shadow Defence Secretary opposed to Trident. It is
:20:31. > :20:36.obvious that he is moving to end Labour's support for the nuclear
:20:37. > :20:41.deterrent, is it not? You have got a very detailed policy process that we
:20:42. > :20:45.will go through. It is not just a matter for the Shadow Cabinet, it is
:20:46. > :20:51.a matter for the national policy forum. I am not a unilateralist, I
:20:52. > :20:58.think we should maintain an independent, ongoing nuclear
:20:59. > :21:02.deterrent. My question to you was... My question was is it not clear that
:21:03. > :21:08.Jeremy Corbyn wants to move your party to a unilateral nuclear
:21:09. > :21:11.disarmament position? That is his position, but let's see how this
:21:12. > :21:16.process goes forward. I have not had a discussion with him about Trident
:21:17. > :21:21.at all and we have not had a discussion in the Shadow Cabinet
:21:22. > :21:27.about this topic yet either. We have a clear policy making process. In my
:21:28. > :21:31.experience of these things, it never turns out to be as binary as
:21:32. > :21:36.everybody wants it to be. As you proceed and set out your argument
:21:37. > :21:40.and case and look at the evidence, as you commission research and try
:21:41. > :21:46.to build alliances, not just within the Shadow Cabinet, but within the
:21:47. > :21:49.trade union membership, you compromise and your position changes
:21:50. > :21:55.and you get a policy that everyone can get behind and in my experience
:21:56. > :22:00.that is what will happen. You are either for or against having nuclear
:22:01. > :22:04.arms and labour fought the 1983 election on a unilateral disarmament
:22:05. > :22:08.tickets and lost by a landslide. You have said you are in favour of
:22:09. > :22:13.Trident. Would you resign from the Shadow Cabinet if labour comes out
:22:14. > :22:21.for nuclear disarmament? I know you want this to be an easy decision. I
:22:22. > :22:29.would just like an answer, Lucy Powell. Let's see where we get to.
:22:30. > :22:33.If the Labour position becomes Mr Livingstone and Jeremy Corbyn's
:22:34. > :22:39.position, if that becomes your official policy, would you stay in
:22:40. > :22:44.the Cabinet? I would be very surprised after all the discussion
:22:45. > :22:47.we go through, after all aspects of the Labour Party, I would be very
:22:48. > :22:53.surprised if we got to a position where the Labour Party policy was
:22:54. > :22:57.one of unilateral disarmament. If it was, what would you do? We will see
:22:58. > :23:03.when we get there, but I really do not think we will get there. I am
:23:04. > :23:07.doing pretty badly this morning since every question has yet to
:23:08. > :23:13.elicit an answer. I am getting better at batting you off. You
:23:14. > :23:19.either on who is telling the viewers you are batting me off. I want to be
:23:20. > :23:24.on your programme topic about what is happening to junior doctors. Stop
:23:25. > :23:32.playing for time. Ask me about education and health. There are
:23:33. > :23:36.reports this morning and Mr McDonnell the Shadow Chancellor
:23:37. > :23:41.already referred to this, that Jeremy Corbyn's people want to
:23:42. > :23:46.policy-making from the Shadow Cabinet to the Labour National
:23:47. > :23:51.Executive Committee, not even the policy forum, just the executive
:23:52. > :23:56.committee. Do you support that move? I do not think that is going to
:23:57. > :24:01.happen. Any changes to Labour Party policy-making process, as those on
:24:02. > :24:05.the left will know better than anybody because they are the holders
:24:06. > :24:08.of the rule book, they will know that changes like that can only be
:24:09. > :24:14.made at conference by changing the rule book of the Labour Party. We
:24:15. > :24:21.have a very consensual policy-making process. Will the National Executive
:24:22. > :24:25.Committee be the policy forum? No, that is not their role. We have got
:24:26. > :24:29.a policy forum that could be improved in the way it engages with
:24:30. > :24:33.outside experts and party members and the public and it could be
:24:34. > :24:39.improved and Angela Eagle is looking that at that at the moment. But we
:24:40. > :24:44.have a very robust and complex system, but to get to the right
:24:45. > :24:51.policy-making process, and I know those of you in the media what it to
:24:52. > :24:53.be really simple, but it is not. Was it consensual for the Shadow
:24:54. > :25:00.Chancellor to describe the progress pressure group as having, quote, a
:25:01. > :25:05.right-wing, Conservative agenda? I do not think his comments were right
:25:06. > :25:11.or helpful. The best thing we can do now at the end of this week that we
:25:12. > :25:14.have had is to put an end to the escalation of factionalism and name
:25:15. > :25:19.calling and move on together to do the job that we need to do, which is
:25:20. > :25:22.to be an effective government. You said today there are big issues
:25:23. > :25:27.around Europe, junior doctors going on strike for the first time in 40
:25:28. > :25:31.years and we have got an important job to do that my constituents
:25:32. > :25:35.expect us to be doing. The last thing they want, and if there is
:25:36. > :25:40.anything that Jeremy's leadership when taught us is that this
:25:41. > :25:48.internal, talking about each other and the factions and so on, that is
:25:49. > :25:51.what the public hate. They want big vision and big ideas and policies
:25:52. > :25:56.for the future. When I ask you about policy ideas you will not give me an
:25:57. > :26:00.answer. There cannot be a bigger idea than whether or not the Labour
:26:01. > :26:06.Party is moving towards unilateral nuclear disarmament. We have just
:26:07. > :26:10.had a huge chat about that. Ask me about education and the floods, the
:26:11. > :26:15.economy that needs to change for working people. Ask me about the
:26:16. > :26:18.crisis that is hitting families at the same time David Cameron is
:26:19. > :26:22.making a speech about families and his government is doing the opposite
:26:23. > :26:28.of supporting families. Ask me some of those things. On families are you
:26:29. > :26:33.disappointed that Alison McGovern, the chair of progress, has resigned
:26:34. > :26:37.from the policy forum on child poverty? It is a shame because
:26:38. > :26:41.Alison has got a huge amount to offer. I have known her for many
:26:42. > :26:47.years before both of us were Labour MPs and she has been a long-standing
:26:48. > :26:49.campaigner on issues of child poverty and international
:26:50. > :26:54.development and how we can change the economy to make it work for
:26:55. > :26:58.working people. I hope Allison continues to make a contribution to
:26:59. > :27:02.the Labour Party and I am sure she will, she is an effective
:27:03. > :27:06.parliamentarian. I know from speaking to her that the last thing
:27:07. > :27:12.she wants is all this attention that she is getting today and she was to
:27:13. > :27:15.move on and draw a line and what has happened and realign our fire
:27:16. > :27:20.knocked on each other, but on the Tories and on this government that
:27:21. > :27:26.is doing a terrible job of running this country. Let me return to Emily
:27:27. > :27:31.Thornberry. A year ago she accepted ?14,500 donation from a law firm
:27:32. > :27:35.which has been condemned by an enquiry for making false allegations
:27:36. > :27:40.against British soldiers which were wholly without merit, in the words
:27:41. > :27:44.of the enquiry. Now she is Shadow Defence Secretary should she
:27:45. > :27:49.returned that money? I do not know anything about that, I do not know
:27:50. > :27:53.about the law firm or the nature of the sponsorship and how it was given
:27:54. > :27:57.or what she is doing, but I am sure she will come on this programme and
:27:58. > :28:01.you can interrogate her about these issues as you happen to me the past.
:28:02. > :28:05.Very well, let's hope I will do better next time. Goodbye.
:28:06. > :28:10.Now, after last-ditch talks broke up on Friday without agreement
:28:11. > :28:12.a strike by Junior doctors, the first in over 40 years,
:28:13. > :28:16.It will lead to the cancellation of thousands of appointments
:28:17. > :28:18.and operations and the Government argues
:28:19. > :28:21.So what's prompted this virtually unprecedented action by Doctors?
:28:22. > :28:28.The Health Secretary is the star of a high-stakes medical drama.
:28:29. > :28:32.The supporting cast, junior doctors, the thousands of staff who finished
:28:33. > :28:35.medical school but are not consultants yet.
:28:36. > :28:38.It is over big changes to their contracts, from rotas
:28:39. > :28:43.to pay, changes which are much needed, according to the government,
:28:44. > :28:53.and their supporters in places like right of centre think tanks.
:28:54. > :28:56.It has wanted to move towards more of the seven-day week,
:28:57. > :28:58.which actually, I think that ambition is shared
:28:59. > :29:01.across the medical workforce, including junior doctors,
:29:02. > :29:03.and it wants to change the so-called pay progression,
:29:04. > :29:06.the way that junior doctors get paid more just for being in office
:29:07. > :29:10.for longer, just as they are doing to the rest of the public sector,
:29:11. > :29:12.so I think they were absolutely right to start this
:29:13. > :29:17.But the doctors are furious about it.
:29:18. > :29:19.Both sides have been negotiating for months,
:29:20. > :29:22.most recently on Friday, when the gap between them
:29:23. > :29:30.Let's look at some of the concessions made
:29:31. > :29:35.They want Saturday to be considered a normal working day.
:29:36. > :29:38.Initially they said antisocial hours which come with extra pay would not
:29:39. > :29:44.But that has been rolled back to 7:00pm.
:29:45. > :29:46.The Department of Health has also promised to introduce so-called
:29:47. > :29:49.guardians who will monitor that doctors are not forced to work
:29:50. > :29:56.They will have the power to fine NHS trusts who break the rules,
:29:57. > :29:59.and the Government reckons most junior doctors will actually see
:30:00. > :30:05.Jeremy Hunt says that agreement has been reached in 15 out of 16 areas,
:30:06. > :30:08.but I've spoken to someone on the junior doctors' negotiating
:30:09. > :30:10.team who told me that the number of unresolved issues
:30:11. > :30:16.Nadia is an anaesthetist at a London Hospital.
:30:17. > :30:19.She will be a consultant soon and is worried for the junior
:30:20. > :30:22.doctors who will follow in her footsteps.
:30:23. > :30:24.They will probably find themselves working more weekends,
:30:25. > :30:32.They would find their shifts much more erratic, much less compatible
:30:33. > :30:35.with having a normal life, which would affect the working lives
:30:36. > :30:39.of thousands of junior doctors who have families and children
:30:40. > :30:43.in school, and they would struggle with that.
:30:44. > :30:46.It would also affect patients, having erratic working lives,
:30:47. > :30:49.erratic working hours, is proven not to be good
:30:50. > :30:52.for anyone's health, and there are lots of studies that
:30:53. > :30:58.If this contract goes through, there is a high likelihood
:30:59. > :31:01.that is going to be the situation and those people will be in charge
:31:02. > :31:06.More than 70 junior doctors from hospitals along
:31:07. > :31:10.It is a repeat of 1975, the last time that junior
:31:11. > :31:14.On Tuesday, this generation of medics will provide only
:31:15. > :31:20.Another two strikes are coming with plans for no junior doctors
:31:21. > :31:31.This issue has even made it into the charts when an NHS choir
:31:32. > :31:37.One of the campaigners behind it says the government is not
:31:38. > :31:43.seeing the real problems in the health service.
:31:44. > :31:46.There are not enough staff, this is not in one hospital,
:31:47. > :31:48.this is every hospital in the country, there are not enough
:31:49. > :31:51.staff to deal with the demands in A
:31:52. > :31:54.There are not enough GPs, and GPs are leaving our health
:31:55. > :31:57.service, A doctors are leaving the health service.
:31:58. > :32:01.These are the key issues which need to be addressed,
:32:02. > :32:04.and they need to be addressed now, not after this contract negotiation
:32:05. > :32:07.or as part of a pay envelope, or any other speak the government
:32:08. > :32:20.Jeremy Hunt is convinced that a more seven-day NHS is the way
:32:21. > :32:23.But it looks like there could be plenty of cliffhangers
:32:24. > :32:27.Now, we asked for an interview with the doctors' union,
:32:28. > :32:29.the BMA, and the Department for Health but neither
:32:30. > :32:34.But we're joined now by the former Conservative MP and Health Secretary
:32:35. > :32:42.He now chairs the NHS Confederation which represents NHS Trusts.
:32:43. > :32:51.Welcome to the programme. Thank you. Our BMA militants spoiling for a
:32:52. > :32:57.fight, or has Jeremy Hunt bungled the negotiations and provoke
:32:58. > :33:02.hard-working doctors to stop work? The last thing patients want is a
:33:03. > :33:05.long running commentary about the behaviour of the negotiating
:33:06. > :33:12.parties. It is disappointing that we have got a strike action plan for
:33:13. > :33:15.this week, but what we need to see is the parties back in the
:33:16. > :33:20.negotiating room dealing with the detail that your report just
:33:21. > :33:27.highlighted. That can only be dealt with round the negotiating table.
:33:28. > :33:34.The overwhelming majority of doctors to back an unprecedented action of
:33:35. > :33:36.strikes, including a full strike in the third one, hardly suggests the
:33:37. > :33:43.negotiations have been handled with aplomb. What has been going on
:33:44. > :33:47.within the negotiating room is addressing the detail. Any pay
:33:48. > :33:52.negotiation, as you very well know, covers a mass of complex detail.
:33:53. > :33:56.There is a commitment from the BMA and the employers and the government
:33:57. > :34:02.to deliver better performance over the weekend and we have seen. We
:34:03. > :34:06.have seen in our hospitals that there is an issue around excess
:34:07. > :34:10.mortality. The government is right to address that issue. This is part
:34:11. > :34:16.of the response to that issue and that is a commitment that is shared
:34:17. > :34:21.by all the negotiators. It cannot be that accepted as they are going on
:34:22. > :34:24.strike. The government claims there are 11,000 unnecessary weekend
:34:25. > :34:31.deaths because of book cover. That is just a propaganda figure. It is
:34:32. > :34:36.right that the excess mortality is not just around we can cover, that
:34:37. > :34:43.is true. That figure is a propaganda figure. There is an analysis that
:34:44. > :34:48.shows there is excess mortality in British hospitals at weekends. That
:34:49. > :34:51.is an issue that the BMA, the doctors, the clinical leaders of the
:34:52. > :34:56.health service and the management leaders and the government from a
:34:57. > :35:00.policy point of view all understand needs to be reassessed. Except the
:35:01. > :35:04.report comes up with the 11000 and you said it is not possible to
:35:05. > :35:09.determine the extent to which these excess deaths may be preventable and
:35:10. > :35:14.it would be misleading to assume they were. It is a figure the
:35:15. > :35:19.Secretary of State uses all the time. Rash and misleading. I am not
:35:20. > :35:23.using it, but I say there is a need to look seriously on behalf of
:35:24. > :35:30.patients if there is evidence of excess mortality at the weekend. We
:35:31. > :35:35.know there is excess mortality. But that is not the right figure. Should
:35:36. > :35:40.we simply sit back and do nothing? If the figure is not right perhaps
:35:41. > :35:44.the Secretary of State should not be using it. Is it not wholly
:35:45. > :35:47.unrealistic to implement a full seven-day week cover in the NHS
:35:48. > :35:49.unrealistic to implement a full seven-day week cover in the NHS
:35:50. > :35:55.without an increase in overall NHS resources? That is what the
:35:56. > :36:00.government announced in the comprehensive spending review before
:36:01. > :36:04.Christmas. What is unrealistic... That is simply to keep the NHS
:36:05. > :36:10.ticking over, it is not to pay for seven days a week cover. It is
:36:11. > :36:14.unrealistic to imagine we can deliver the kind of health and care
:36:15. > :36:18.services we want in our country without addressing some of the
:36:19. > :36:22.fundamental issues around budgets, you are right about that, but also
:36:23. > :36:27.about joining up the different elements of the health and social
:36:28. > :36:30.care system. We talk about the NHS budget and we come into the studio
:36:31. > :36:36.on a separate we can to talk as though it is a completely different
:36:37. > :36:39.subject about the funding of social care and residential care. What we
:36:40. > :36:45.need to be more adult about is looking at this as a single system,
:36:46. > :36:48.which is why I and the NHS Confederation have called for a
:36:49. > :36:54.review of the funding and structure of health and care services.
:36:55. > :37:00.The government is trying to implement seven-day week cover on
:37:01. > :37:04.health spending that is essentially unchanged in real terms, not
:37:05. > :37:10.financing that. Look at what our health spending is, as a share of
:37:11. > :37:15.GDP, look among the wealthier countries of Europe, down there, we
:37:16. > :37:22.spend 8.5% of our GDP on health, and that includes private health. These
:37:23. > :37:25.other countries, Netherlands, Switzerland, Sweden, France, are
:37:26. > :37:36.closer to 11%. The event that we already spend less, how can we hope
:37:37. > :37:40.to have a seven day a week NHS on a .5% GDP. Most of the people who work
:37:41. > :37:45.in the health service now we already have a seven day a week health
:37:46. > :37:50.service. This is about Phil cover. What do you say about this? What I
:37:51. > :37:54.say about the funding of the health service is that this is precisely
:37:55. > :37:58.one of the issues that needs to be addressed. I think it needs to be
:37:59. > :38:02.addressed on a cross-party basis. That is one of the things I learned
:38:03. > :38:07.this chair of the cross-party health committee in the last parliament.
:38:08. > :38:12.Can we afford things like seven day a week, Phil cover of which is what
:38:13. > :38:17.is being proposed with that level of health spending? Only Ireland
:38:18. > :38:22.devotes less spending than we do. I accept there is an issue around
:38:23. > :38:27.excess mortality in NHS hospitals that we can. I do not accept that we
:38:28. > :38:32.do not have a seven day a week health service. Do you accept that
:38:33. > :38:36.we need to get closer to France and Germany than we are at the moment on
:38:37. > :38:40.spending? I do agree that not just in this country but across the
:38:41. > :38:44.world, all over a very long period, as societies get richer, they spend
:38:45. > :38:49.more of their income on health and your services, but we have to move
:38:50. > :38:54.away from thinking the health service is isolated, it is part of
:38:55. > :39:02.the key system, and we need to look at that on a holistic bases across
:39:03. > :39:06.health and tear. That is in the medium and long-term. You're doing
:39:07. > :39:07.your commission, I hope you will keep us appraised of that as you go
:39:08. > :39:21.on. Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics
:39:22. > :39:24.in Northern Ireland. The day before she's expected
:39:25. > :39:27.to become First Minister, we look at the challenges
:39:28. > :39:30.facing Arlene Foster. In this year of centenaries,
:39:31. > :39:33.is there a way to commemorate both the Easter Rising and the Somme that
:39:34. > :39:38.will please all sides? And with me throughout
:39:39. > :39:40.the programme with their thoughts are the journalists
:39:41. > :39:47.Allison Morris and Sam McBride. Tomorrow Arlene Foster is expected
:39:48. > :39:52.to officially become First Minister. The Fermanagh MLA became party
:39:53. > :39:55.leader before Christmas and says she's humbled to be
:39:56. > :39:57.following in the footsteps So what should she be concentrating
:39:58. > :40:02.on in the weeks ahead? Our Political Correspondent,
:40:03. > :40:04.Stephen Walker, has been considering what should be
:40:05. > :40:32.in the First Minister's in-tray. Thank you for the confidence and you
:40:33. > :40:38.have shown in the. Thank you for the opportunity you have given me. Our
:40:39. > :40:45.new First Minister will be Arlene Foster. Margaret Thatcher was known
:40:46. > :40:49.as the iron Lady, and Arlene will be no other no ironing lady. By all
:40:50. > :40:54.accounts, Arlene Foster has a good sense of humour and she will need
:40:55. > :40:59.it. From now on, she will be the number one target of comedians and
:41:00. > :41:05.cartoonists. From tomorrow, everything stops at her office. So
:41:06. > :41:10.as to thousands 16 and false, what can we realistically expect from the
:41:11. > :41:13.new First Minister? How things be different, Sammy Wilson could have
:41:14. > :41:18.been preparing this weekend for his first day as First Minister, but he
:41:19. > :41:25.decided not to challenge Arlene Foster. Instead, he offers her with
:41:26. > :41:30.advice. She has a fairly daunting task. The Assembly doesn't have a
:41:31. > :41:35.great image, partly because of its own behaviour and the way the media
:41:36. > :41:39.has treated some of its successors. The first thing she must do is try
:41:40. > :41:45.between now and the election to get a lot of positives for the Assembly.
:41:46. > :41:49.What can we expect from Arlene Foster? Some say she now has an
:41:50. > :41:56.opportunity to be very different from their predecessors. Her biggest
:41:57. > :42:00.hurdles will be first reaching out and being perfectly in command of
:42:01. > :42:06.her only Unionism, reaching out to nationalism and saying she means it.
:42:07. > :42:10.She has said that, she has said it is ridiculous not to. Her other one
:42:11. > :42:14.is going to be managing the party. Managing it in a positive way rather
:42:15. > :42:19.than a negative way, rather than just keeping down dissent. She
:42:20. > :42:23.doesn't need to do that. The months ahead, Foster will want to see
:42:24. > :42:29.Lieberman and Asian of the French -- fresh start agreement. Education is
:42:30. > :42:31.also a priority as you push for investment and prioritise job
:42:32. > :42:38.creation. But aside from the wider economic issues, Mays Assembly
:42:39. > :42:42.elections loom large. She does not want to spend me the six touring
:42:43. > :42:47.studios and explaining why the DUP as last six or seven seats. They
:42:48. > :42:50.will not be -- fall behind Sinn Fein, she does not want after
:42:51. > :42:55.spending the day doing that. She was to come back and say yes, new
:42:56. > :42:58.leader, new party, new conditions. We did extraordinarily well. That is
:42:59. > :43:02.the only thing she has to say, because when she does that, the
:43:03. > :43:06.party is settled, it is her party. At the many, it is not entirely
:43:07. > :43:17.hers, she has to prove herself. If she does that may the sick, she can
:43:18. > :43:22.do anything she likes after that. So will and bolts of Government.
:43:23. > :43:27.Therefore, I think people will be prepared to give her trust in the
:43:28. > :43:30.months ahead. To some, Foster is more than a politician. They see her
:43:31. > :43:35.as somebody who can inspire other women to enter public life. I think
:43:36. > :43:38.it is something Arlene Foster should definitely concentrate on. There are
:43:39. > :43:45.women in her party and elsewhere who she could encourage and she should
:43:46. > :43:50.do that. Do you think she will? It will be a big mistake if she didn't
:43:51. > :43:55.I think. I think people expect that of her, it is new style, new
:43:56. > :44:01.leadership and a new DUP with her on board. And she has tremendous
:44:02. > :44:05.opportunities to make change. All leaders are judged by results and
:44:06. > :44:09.Arlene Foster will be no difference. A political honeymoon will be brief.
:44:10. > :44:11.Polling day is just four months away.
:44:12. > :44:14.Stephen Walker taking a peek at Arlene Foster's "to do" list.
:44:15. > :44:16.And joining me with their thoughts are journalists Sam McBride
:44:17. > :44:20.Allison, will the DUP look different to the Catholic/Nationalist
:44:21. > :44:31.I think at this point of the relationship between Peter Robinson
:44:32. > :44:35.and Sinn Fein had failed to such a point, she has low starting point
:44:36. > :44:42.she can only do better. But as a leader, her main priority... We
:44:43. > :44:47.almost had to DUP is at one point. What she needs to do is put the
:44:48. > :44:51.legacy Peter Robinson behind her. She does not want to be seen as just
:44:52. > :44:57.following on from him, she needs to make a stamp. Before she attempts to
:44:58. > :45:08.reach out to Nationalists, she needs to unite her own party and quell any
:45:09. > :45:13.dissent. She said there were not two wings within the party. How do she
:45:14. > :45:18.hold of the religious or secular elements of the DUP together must
:45:19. > :45:22.remark I think between now and the next election, she will be quite
:45:23. > :45:27.staid and conservative in how she manages the party. It is about
:45:28. > :45:29.getting as many seats back as possible. After the election, there
:45:30. > :45:33.is a period of about three years when there is no election and that
:45:34. > :45:38.is when we will see the real Arlene Foster and what she's made of and
:45:39. > :45:42.where she was to take the party. Can she hold that call, keep the core
:45:43. > :45:50.elements of the DUP happy while at the same time trying to reach out to
:45:51. > :45:54.the non-court voters? There are two potential areas where she can reach
:45:55. > :46:00.out. She can reach at a Catholics or people who might be persuaded to
:46:01. > :46:05.move from the best all Peter Unionist party which Peter Robinson
:46:06. > :46:09.has suggested he would try to do and failed in any meaningful way. Or she
:46:10. > :46:11.can try to reach out to liberal Protestant unionist people who are
:46:12. > :46:16.turned off by issues such as abortion and gay marriage and
:46:17. > :46:20.potentially, I think, we could see rather than any softening of the DUP
:46:21. > :46:26.on constitutional issues, we could see a softening in terms of social
:46:27. > :46:28.issues, not in terms of Foster's supporting abortion, but perhaps
:46:29. > :46:35.moving to a position where they don't take a position on it. If she
:46:36. > :46:39.tries to reach out to Catholic nationalist voters, people who vote
:46:40. > :46:50.for the SDLP, what kind of response do you think she will get? And Peter
:46:51. > :46:54.Robinson said he was going to try and reach out, he refused to engage
:46:55. > :46:58.with us in any way, so that was hardly indicative of someone trying
:46:59. > :47:02.to reach out to Nationalists. It will be interesting to see, Arlene
:47:03. > :47:06.will appeal to strong women who are looking for direction in the social
:47:07. > :47:11.issues. She has already made clear that her stance on things such as
:47:12. > :47:16.gay marriage and soft issues on the different than what Peter Robinson's
:47:17. > :47:23.were. Some have suggested the flags protest killed off the DUP's attempt
:47:24. > :47:28.to reach out? She's not Belfast -based, so she's not tainted with
:47:29. > :47:34.the stigma of the flag protest. That was a Belfast protest, let's face
:47:35. > :47:39.it. She comes fresh from that, so Nationalists don't connect in any
:47:40. > :47:43.way to those protests. One of the significant issues is that we have a
:47:44. > :47:52.leader of the union who is not a member of Orange Order. That is very
:47:53. > :47:58.sick and if it can. She is also from a rural Protestant unionist
:47:59. > :48:04.community and will not instinctively be very supportive of some of the
:48:05. > :48:09.antics we have seen in Belfast. Allison, do you expect to promote
:48:10. > :48:12.women? While, Margaret Thatcher pushed women down, but I like to
:48:13. > :48:16.think Arlene Foster would and you can already see a change in
:48:17. > :48:20.leadership around the DUP coming up through the back of the ranks and I
:48:21. > :48:23.would like to see them pushed to the front.
:48:24. > :48:25.The new year saw the start of the Republic's official
:48:26. > :48:27.commemorations of the Easter Rising centenary.
:48:28. > :48:30.Later in the year the Battle of the Somme's 100th anniversary
:48:31. > :48:36.In a moment I'll be asking two historians how they view those key
:48:37. > :48:40.But first, here's the Irish Minister with responsibility for the year
:48:41. > :48:42.of centenaries, Heather Humphreys, speaking to BBC Newsline's Mark
:48:43. > :48:55.As you know, I am an Ulster woman and I come from a Presbyterian
:48:56. > :49:01.family, so I am conscious of the sensitivities and I fully understand
:49:02. > :49:04.that how people may be concerned about it. But I have been a very
:49:05. > :49:10.keen that these commemorations would be respectful and it is about
:49:11. > :49:15.commemorating what happened in 1916 but also about reflecting on an
:49:16. > :49:18.Ireland in the last century and looking ambitiously to the future.
:49:19. > :49:24.As well as that, the Government had planned a comprehensive Somme
:49:25. > :49:29.commemoration, because, as I know and we all know, so many Ulster men
:49:30. > :49:33.and indeed Irish men right across the whole of Ireland lost their
:49:34. > :49:37.lives in the battle of the Somme. We will also commemorate those events.
:49:38. > :49:41.This is a great opportunity for us to come together, reflects our
:49:42. > :49:45.shared history and there is so much of our history in 1916 and that is
:49:46. > :49:49.intertwined and that has been revealed through World War I
:49:50. > :49:52.commemorations, so we will all look together at the past, but what is
:49:53. > :49:55.important is we look ambitiously to the future.
:49:56. > :49:58.With me now are the historians Lord Bew and Dr Marie Coleman.
:49:59. > :50:01.Paul Bew, the Rising was a key part of the history of this whole island.
:50:02. > :50:11.Why do Unionists seem reluctant to engage with this anniversary?
:50:12. > :50:17.You must remember that constitutional nationalism also
:50:18. > :50:20.condemned the rising, the Democratic leadership of nationalist Ireland
:50:21. > :50:25.condemned it and there is a crucial question of the appeal to allies in
:50:26. > :50:35.Germany. So it control of it be rising that unionist even today
:50:36. > :50:37.remain it in a condemnatory mode. It raises great difficulties about
:50:38. > :50:41.historical understanding and what it means. It would be a good thing if
:50:42. > :50:46.Unionists could accept at least a partial element of response ability.
:50:47. > :50:50.They were the first to bring gunners interisland, but not the first to
:50:51. > :50:56.use them and it is ridiculous to say that Irish Republicans needed the
:50:57. > :51:02.example of Unionists. But it would be a good thing if there was some
:51:03. > :51:05.understanding of the conflict and of the role that Unionists also played.
:51:06. > :51:09.This doesn't in any way involved them in saying he was a good thing,
:51:10. > :51:13.it was in many respects a disaster, particularly for Catholics in the
:51:14. > :51:17.North and created a harsher partition and was economically a
:51:18. > :51:21.much harsher life for two generations of Irish people. They
:51:22. > :51:24.were all consequences of the rising and are much more sectarian society
:51:25. > :51:30.come all consequences of the rising for which unionist are not
:51:31. > :51:39.responsible. Marie, but would be the smart way for unionist to approach
:51:40. > :51:42.the commemoration? Nationalists will find themselves in a similar
:51:43. > :51:45.position in five years when it comes to commemorating the setting up of
:51:46. > :51:49.Northern Ireland. Taking a longer term into account would be a good
:51:50. > :51:52.idea to start with. I've been impressed with the number of
:51:53. > :52:03.references that Arlene Foster has made to 1916 and I think her initial
:52:04. > :52:07.speech at the New Year talking about engaging and reflecting on the
:52:08. > :52:13.rising is quite important. It is a good sign and likewise, there is a
:52:14. > :52:19.willingness in Unionism to engage with a historic significance of the
:52:20. > :52:23.Rising. She quoted recently that she would be taking part in an of the
:52:24. > :52:30.events as part of this so-called commemoration? I kind of language
:52:31. > :52:38.doesn't strike some people as being particularly liberal? I caught the
:52:39. > :52:40.reference, and I know she has been painted as backtracking from her
:52:41. > :52:45.initial statement at the New Year, but I don't think she has. I think
:52:46. > :52:48.she is still reflecting the significance and prepared to engage
:52:49. > :52:52.with the significance of the Rising, but I do think anyone could
:52:53. > :52:55.legitimately expect to attend the set piece parades that will be
:52:56. > :53:02.taking place in Dublin on Easter Sunday. It is a challenge for
:53:03. > :53:06.Unionists, Paul, I don't know what your thoughts are on what Arlene
:53:07. > :53:09.Foster said, but she has said she will not take part representing
:53:10. > :53:11.Northern Ireland as the First Minister in those particular events.
:53:12. > :53:19.Magnus Pitt said he will organise -- Mike Nesbitt is organise --
:53:20. > :53:21.suggesting his party in the Republic
:53:22. > :53:32.to mark the occasion. in many respects, if you look at the
:53:33. > :53:35.rhetoric of the Rising, it is followers into the post office and
:53:36. > :53:44.you will have a country of 20 million Irish speaking. What you
:53:45. > :53:47.actually get, and it's almost inevitable once rigid use a gun into
:53:48. > :53:50.Irish politics, is rigid as a country of 2 million
:53:51. > :53:56.English-speaking, a harsher partition, Ireland becomes
:53:57. > :54:01.overtaxed, and what you actually get is you have to cut your own age --
:54:02. > :54:05.old-age pensioners soon as you get an independent Irish Government. So
:54:06. > :54:08.the Independent and economical project if taken seriously is
:54:09. > :54:11.dishonest and in many respects a radical failure. This isn't to say
:54:12. > :54:15.there is not the bravery and sincerity on the part of people at
:54:16. > :54:19.the Rising, but there doesn't seem to be anything to be afraid of
:54:20. > :54:24.intellectually for Unionists to engage with. The downside of the
:54:25. > :54:27.Rising is dramatic and the worst downside is that any small group of
:54:28. > :54:31.self appointed people can say I define Irish is true, I will get the
:54:32. > :54:36.gun and I'm like the men of 1916, it doesn't matter what the men are
:54:37. > :54:40.voting for. It is also a challenge for Sinn Fein who are running own
:54:41. > :54:58.commemorative events. It seems to be painting itself other national --
:54:59. > :55:02.natural air. -- natural heir. The Sinn Fein of 1916 was not the
:55:03. > :55:06.Republican Sinn Fein that would emerge in 1917. If Irish parties are
:55:07. > :55:10.fighting over the legitimate legacy of the rising, it will be the Irish
:55:11. > :55:16.Labour Party who may be ahead of the queue to claim that legacy. Sinn
:55:17. > :55:21.Fein are our position. We saw this last year as well, on one hand, they
:55:22. > :55:24.are going into an election which be held in advance of the
:55:25. > :55:27.commemorations and you can't understand the importance of these
:55:28. > :55:31.commemorations without seeing him in the context of that election. On the
:55:32. > :55:35.one hand, they're going into it and playing a full part in Parliament
:55:36. > :55:36.politics, spiralling to being in Government in the south, but at the
:55:37. > :56:24.same time, the by-elections fought were
:56:25. > :56:30.weakening but still have the support of Irish Nationalists. That was Sinn
:56:31. > :56:34.Fein's argument 100 years ago. This time, there is no problem, they say
:56:35. > :56:40.they will extend its for a year even though that gives exactly the same
:56:41. > :56:45.argument, that the men of 1916 had. Your mandate has run out, we are
:56:46. > :56:49.entitled to use our gunner. It is a curious thing. People claim to being
:56:50. > :56:54.chewed with Irish history and think deeply about it, most people are
:56:55. > :57:10.claiming it is not in Schumann at all that interesting resonances.
:57:11. > :57:19.The Somme commemoration is approaching. What are the pitfalls
:57:20. > :57:23.there? Proper respect has been paid to the many people who are Catholic
:57:24. > :57:27.and nationalist communities who lost their lives and indeed I curl up in
:57:28. > :57:58.the, absolutely gym article is so in the summer of 1915.
:57:59. > :58:06.It was said there was hardly a family in Northern Ireland who did
:58:07. > :58:10.not have a loss of life. Marie, you mentioned percent scene of the
:58:11. > :58:16.foundation of the state of Northern Ireland. What about the Somme? About
:58:17. > :58:21.how it is marked by Unionists and those who are not from the unionist
:58:22. > :58:25.background? When you look at previous commemorations, what was
:58:26. > :58:29.missing was the conferences approach to 1916 and Irish Government will be
:58:30. > :58:35.marking the Somme as well. Unionists could look at aspects of the 1916
:58:36. > :58:42.commemorations in Ireland which will also mark the Irish men who joined
:58:43. > :58:43.the rising. -- Rising. I want the Irish Government to be more
:58:44. > :58:45.inclusive this time. Let's pause for a look back
:58:46. > :59:01.at the political week gone past With flooding causing huge problems,
:59:02. > :59:06.three executive ministers met to discuss hell up. We all different
:59:07. > :59:12.ideas as ministers, and we will discuss in next week and take on how
:59:13. > :59:17.we can help people. Simon Hamilton named the panel to shape the future
:59:18. > :59:23.of health care. This is a massive next step in terms of taking forward
:59:24. > :59:26.recommendations. We want to learn from other experiences elsewhere and
:59:27. > :59:34.take expert advice for outside Northern Ireland. Will these teams
:59:35. > :59:40.be going to Belfast City Hall? It is a unique situation. Tonight we will
:59:41. > :59:45.hold an event that logistically will be difficult. Tributes were paid to
:59:46. > :59:53.Liam Clarke, he was a Sunday Politics regular who died at
:59:54. > :00:01.Christmas. STL P veteran said he was leading the Assembly. -- SDLP.
:00:02. > :00:03.We're certainly all the poorer for Liam Clarke's passing and he'll
:00:04. > :00:25.The final fought -- thoughts from Alison and Samba. Difficult is about
:00:26. > :00:30.the outgoing Sinn Fein... It is a lesson not just the politicians but
:00:31. > :00:37.for us all and that so most people. But we were seen by 167 people which
:00:38. > :00:42.is only up for an hour could end up costing a small fortune. It was a
:00:43. > :00:47.monumental a stupid thing to have done and it took a long to
:00:48. > :00:52.apologise. It shed some light on why Sinn Fein deselected Fine Gael, he
:00:53. > :01:05.has done one gaffe too many to be reselected. It is a lesson for us
:01:06. > :01:12.all. On one hand, but do say on Twitter account the views are my
:01:13. > :01:16.own, but it doesn't mind -- mean you can say things you wouldn't
:01:17. > :01:20.necessarily say in the newspaper. If I tweet something, I think what I
:01:21. > :01:25.put it in my column, if not, I wouldn't put it on Twitter. Your
:01:26. > :01:33.thoughts on the discussion we have just tired in challengers for the
:01:34. > :01:36.parties about the Easter Rising and the Somme? Politicians are getting
:01:37. > :01:39.dragged in the most upper part in it, particularly south of the border
:01:40. > :01:44.where it is about the foundation of the state. People will learn a lot
:01:45. > :01:48.more lessons. There are lessons for all sides. There is not moral
:01:49. > :01:56.equivalence between all the side that took part, there are a lot of
:01:57. > :01:59.books in the last year about it, more so than politicians getting
:02:00. > :02:03.dragged into it. Both of those events involve all the people of
:02:04. > :02:07.this Ireland and the shaped -- and it shaped the Ireland we live and
:02:08. > :02:09.now. Everyone should be invested rather than take ownership of one
:02:10. > :02:10.side or the other. And you can hear an interview
:02:11. > :02:14.with Arlene Foster on BBC Radio and beget affordable to Londoners to
:02:15. > :02:24.buy. Andrew, back to you. Now, the Prime Minister
:02:25. > :02:30.is pledging to "tear down" 100 sink estates in England,
:02:31. > :02:33.replacing them with new homes Michael Heseltine is being brought
:02:34. > :02:38.in to oversee the initiative, but so far the Government's
:02:39. > :02:40.pledged to spend just ?140 I think sink housing estates,
:02:41. > :02:49.many built after the war, where people can feel
:02:50. > :02:51.trapped in poverty, unable to get on and build a good
:02:52. > :02:54.life for themselves, I think it is time, with Government
:02:55. > :02:57.money but with massive private sector and perhaps
:02:58. > :03:01.pension sector help, demolish the worst of these
:03:02. > :03:03.and actually rebuild houses that people feel they can
:03:04. > :03:16.have a real future in. So, we have not got a budget for
:03:17. > :03:21.this scheme, we do not know how much it will cost, we do not know the 100
:03:22. > :03:26.sink estates that will be renovated, other than that it is a great idea.
:03:27. > :03:29.Politically it is a great idea because it signals in Westminster
:03:30. > :03:35.what we call a one nation approach to policy. There is not much behind
:03:36. > :03:39.it at all, but the symbolism is powerful. Iain Duncan Smith began
:03:40. > :03:52.his leadership with a visit to a housing estate. Tony Blair began his
:03:53. > :03:55.premiership with a visit to a housing estate in London. There is a
:03:56. > :03:57.rich history of this and David Cameron is right that post-war, poor
:03:58. > :04:00.people in this country were used as guinea pigs for brittle lists and
:04:01. > :04:03.modern architect. This is the way of taking the edge of that. If it is
:04:04. > :04:06.only symbolism, it does not help anybody. At the end of this worldly
:04:07. > :04:12.amount of social housing be higher or lower than it was before? When
:04:13. > :04:18.you sell off these properties, there is supposed to be a mechanism
:04:19. > :04:22.whereby people build more. Where in Kensington will you build more?
:04:23. > :04:29.Social housing rents in Islington are 20% of market rates. Affordable
:04:30. > :04:33.rates are 60% of astronomical and people cannot afford them. It is not
:04:34. > :04:37.affordable for the people in social housing. I noticed the Prime
:04:38. > :04:45.Minister mentioned building in the private sector and he mentioned
:04:46. > :04:48.pension funds. I have monitored the pension fund contribution to
:04:49. > :04:52.infrastructure and it is pretty close to zero. If these people in
:04:53. > :04:56.these estates are waiting on pension money, they will be living in their
:04:57. > :05:01.sink estates for a long time to come. He also mentioned in the
:05:02. > :05:07.report by an estate agent that says you have these high-rise rocks in
:05:08. > :05:11.so-called recreational areas in no-go zones and if you had lower
:05:12. > :05:17.blocks you could use that and have many more people. We know all that,
:05:18. > :05:21.but how will it happen? The image that came into my mind when I saw
:05:22. > :05:25.the article in the Sunday Times was the picture you carried on the front
:05:26. > :05:29.page of the Sunday Times which was Margaret Thatcher walking into that
:05:30. > :05:34.inner-city wilderness and saying, we have got to concentrate on the inner
:05:35. > :05:38.cities after she won her third election. But the problem is there
:05:39. > :05:43.has to be substance and there is a danger with Downing Street that they
:05:44. > :05:53.think Jeremy Corbyn is in their eyes so useless that they can do these
:05:54. > :05:55.hits like this, but you have to have substance. If you are talking about
:05:56. > :06:00.rebuilding Britain's council housing estates, you need more money. Let's
:06:01. > :06:05.monitored this closely. Let's find out what the 100 estates will be and
:06:06. > :06:08.let's get a regular update on how they will be improved and it would
:06:09. > :06:14.be nice to know where either people who are going to go to live in them
:06:15. > :06:17.at the moment? They had trouble getting the MPs who were living in
:06:18. > :06:21.Parliament and trying to get them out after three years. Let's keep an
:06:22. > :06:27.Now, if our political panel have made New Year's resolutions to spend
:06:28. > :06:30.less time in the office, they might have to break them
:06:31. > :06:32.because 2016 is going to keep them busy.
:06:33. > :06:35.The EU Referendum, which could happen as early as June,
:06:36. > :06:37.will dominate the political landscape.
:06:38. > :06:39.David Cameron continues his attempts at renegotiation apace,
:06:40. > :06:42.but it is unlikely to convince the ardent "leave" campaigners,
:06:43. > :06:53.The result of the elections on the first Thursday in May
:06:54. > :06:55.will dictate the tone of Jeremy Corbyn's first
:06:56. > :07:01.In Scotland, the party is facing the possibility of virtual wipe-out
:07:02. > :07:06.But there are also elections for the Welsh assembly -
:07:07. > :07:12.And in the local elections there are predictions Labour
:07:13. > :07:15.could lose up to 200 of the 1,200 seats they are defending.
:07:16. > :07:19.Northern Ireland will also be holding elections.
:07:20. > :07:22.London might offer Labour a glimmer of hope, with Sadiq Khan maintaining
:07:23. > :07:25.a paper-thin lead over his Conservative rival Zac Goldsmith.
:07:26. > :07:28.Away from the ballot box, a few long-awaited decisions may
:07:29. > :07:31.finally come to fruition, not least a ruling on the expansion
:07:32. > :07:37.Economic growth could be trimmed back in the face of a global
:07:38. > :07:40.slowdown, as speculation continues about when the Bank of England
:07:41. > :07:47.And come the summer, we should finally find out
:07:48. > :07:52.what the Chilcot inquiry into the Iraq war actually achieved.
:07:53. > :07:59.Helen, the Tory split over Europe, particularly if the referendum is
:08:00. > :08:04.this year, will be apparent for all to see. As David Davis was saying,
:08:05. > :08:08.it could be a serious split down the middle of the party. Is there a
:08:09. > :08:13.possibility that the party managers lose control of this split? This
:08:14. > :08:19.becomes a serious, historical split for the Tories? My feeling is it
:08:20. > :08:24.will be quite contained. They have power, they want to stay in power
:08:25. > :08:27.and they are seen as a credible party in government. It is not an
:08:28. > :08:33.existential issue in the that Trident is. Trident in labour is so
:08:34. > :08:38.forceful is that this is something that is attacking the heart of the
:08:39. > :08:42.Labour Party and it is rendering it unelectable. Is the country so
:08:43. > :08:47.excited about Europe? The turnout might be quite low? Is the Tory
:08:48. > :08:57.party turning up against Europe going to put a lot of them off? I
:08:58. > :09:07.would think not. I remember in 1840s the... You took it off twitter. It
:09:08. > :09:13.was the quill pen. The party was split them for a generation. Is this
:09:14. > :09:19.as potentially a serious? There were Eurosceptics who were saying this
:09:20. > :09:24.would be a great split. But they were not in power as a majority for
:09:25. > :09:28.about 30 or 35 years after that split. That is why what the Prime
:09:29. > :09:32.Minister announced last week when he said ministers will be able to
:09:33. > :09:36.campaign on either side was so vitally important in ensuring that
:09:37. > :09:41.the split that will come, and it will be a split, does not turn into
:09:42. > :09:46.a civil war. That announcement is really important for managing the
:09:47. > :09:50.tone and the aftermath. I think Downing Street are hoping it will
:09:51. > :09:57.not be a Corbin like split, but some are hoping it will be on the other
:09:58. > :10:05.side. My instinct is that telling the ministers to campaign as they
:10:06. > :10:09.see fit, I think you will avoid it being the worst split. You may be
:10:10. > :10:13.right, but sometimes the Tories when it comes to Europe just cannot help
:10:14. > :10:18.themselves as we saw with Maastricht. Let me come to Labour.
:10:19. > :10:24.It has been a pretty traumatic week for Labour. Where now? Where now is
:10:25. > :10:30.Labour moderates increasingly peeling off over the course of this
:10:31. > :10:34.year. From the Shadow Cabinet or the party? The Shadow Cabinet and the
:10:35. > :10:38.front bench, rather than the party, although moderates in the country
:10:39. > :10:42.might peel off as well. What I found bizarre about the reshuffle was not
:10:43. > :10:47.the fact that Pat McFadden was sacked, that Maria Eagle was
:10:48. > :10:51.demoted, the mystery to me is why do they want to be there in the first
:10:52. > :10:55.place? What do mainstream Labour people think they are achieving by
:10:56. > :11:00.actively serving in the front bench of a leader who they themselves
:11:01. > :11:04.believe is driving the party into the ground? Presumably there is some
:11:05. > :11:13.prestige in being in the Shadow Cabinet. Of any Shadow Cabinet, the
:11:14. > :11:18.Tory ones included. They think party unity is a prized above all else and
:11:19. > :11:23.they are actively aiding and abetting and will be tainted by the
:11:24. > :11:28.results in 2020 if it is as bad as people think it will be. If the
:11:29. > :11:35.centre-left of the party peels off from the Shadow Cabinet, that will
:11:36. > :11:37.make life a lot easier for Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonald. He can
:11:38. > :11:44.reconfigure the Shadow Cabinet in his image. Yes and he has got a good
:11:45. > :11:51.year coming. Labour are likely to be the largest party and will end up in
:11:52. > :11:56.government and Sadiq Khan has a good chance of winning the Mayor
:11:57. > :11:59.elections and all of that will stop anyone on the Centre who wants to
:12:00. > :12:06.say, the electorate have spoken and this man can never get anywhere. I
:12:07. > :12:07.do not think it will happen. My sense is even if the election
:12:08. > :12:09.results sense is even if the election
:12:10. > :12:16.results are bad, it is not curtains for Jeremy Corbyn, but if they are
:12:17. > :12:20.as decent as Helen suggested, will he go into the Labour conference in
:12:21. > :12:22.Liverpool at the end of September looking to change the Trident
:12:23. > :12:35.policy? A totemic change of policy? That is why good is the story in the
:12:36. > :12:38.Independent On Sunday about strengthening the hand of the
:12:39. > :12:43.National executive committee of the Labour Party, over the cabinet, so
:12:44. > :12:47.they can change the policy by then. You're right, Steve Deke Canos
:12:48. > :12:55.looking stronger in London than Zac Goldsmith, Susie may well win. --
:12:56. > :13:01.Sadiq Khan is stronger. Labour is bound to do badly. Local elections
:13:02. > :13:07.do not determine leaders. Jeremy Corbyn may well have a narrative
:13:08. > :13:11.that says it is all OK. Yes or no, will Jeremy Corbyn be leader of the
:13:12. > :13:19.Labour Party at the end of this year? Yes, definitely, without
:13:20. > :13:24.question. If David Cameron loses the referendum, will he be Prime
:13:25. > :13:29.Minister by the end of the year? Yes. No. Yes.
:13:30. > :13:34.The Daily Politics will be back at lunchtime tomorrow and all next
:13:35. > :13:38.And I'll be back here on BBC One next Sunday.
:13:39. > :13:41.Remember, if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.