:00:36. > :00:42.Jeremy Corbyn will be challenged for the Labour Party leadership
:00:43. > :00:45.by his former shadow cabinet colleague, Angela Eagle.
:00:46. > :00:48.So what makes her so sure she can win?
:00:49. > :00:54.She's the favoured candidate of Tory MPs, but will Theresa May win over
:00:55. > :00:58.the party's grassroots to become the next Prime Minister?
:00:59. > :01:01.And if she makes it to Number 10, what will her premiership be like?
:01:02. > :01:05.We'll hear from May-supporter, Chris Grayling.
:01:06. > :01:08.And after two tumultuous weeks following the referendum result,
:01:09. > :01:11.a leading Remain campaign insider gives us her candid account
:01:12. > :01:16.And coming up here: Tony Blair's legacy both in the Middle East
:01:17. > :01:20.And the war within the Labour Party, and the chance too that
:01:21. > :01:38.the Conservatives could go the same way.
:01:39. > :01:43.And with me - Janan Ganesh, Helen Lewis and Isabel Oakeshott to
:01:44. > :01:46.help guide us through the political maelstrom - they'll be tweeting
:01:47. > :01:51.throughout the programme using the hashtag #bbcsp.
:01:52. > :01:54.The battle to take over from David Cameron as Conservative Party
:01:55. > :01:57.leader and Prime Minister has rapidly moved into its final phase
:01:58. > :01:59.- a vote of Conservative Party members who must choose
:02:00. > :02:01.between the Home Secretary and remain supporter Theresa May,
:02:02. > :02:03.and the business minister and Leave campaigner Andrea Leadsom.
:02:04. > :02:06.Speaking at the launch of her campaign, Theresa May said
:02:07. > :02:11.she wanted to unite the Conservative Party - and the country.
:02:12. > :02:14.If ever there was a time for a Prime Minister who is ready
:02:15. > :02:19.and able to do the job from day one, this is it.
:02:20. > :02:23.We have immediate work to do, to restore political stability
:02:24. > :02:28.To bring together the party and the country.
:02:29. > :02:29.And to negotiate a sensible and orderly departure
:02:30. > :02:37.But more than that, we have a mission to make Britain
:02:38. > :02:40.a country that works, not for the privileged and not
:02:41. > :02:46.for the few, but for every one of our citizens.
:02:47. > :02:49.I've been joined by the leader of the commons, Chris Grayling,
:02:50. > :02:52.who was one of four cabinet ministers to campaign to leave
:02:53. > :02:54.the EU but who is now supporting Theresa May -
:02:55. > :03:08.Why are you supporting Mrs May as a Leaver? The key thing is having a
:03:09. > :03:13.person who is right for the job. David Cameron chose to step aside, I
:03:14. > :03:18.regret that. We need someone to step into his shoes in whom I have
:03:19. > :03:22.confidence that they will deliver Brexit. I have known Theresa for a
:03:23. > :03:26.long time. She is a determined politician. Having got a mandate
:03:27. > :03:31.from the public to deliver Brexit, she will do that. What assurances
:03:32. > :03:36.have you sought from her? I have sought assurances that she means
:03:37. > :03:41.Brexit is Brexit. The country has spoken. The country has given us a
:03:42. > :03:45.clear direction to follow. The next Prime Minister has to follow that
:03:46. > :03:50.Matt and I am confident that Theresa May is committed to that. But Brexit
:03:51. > :03:58.can mean one of several things. They're of a. So what do you say to
:03:59. > :04:02.Tory twos, who were on your side, that she will water down the Brexit
:04:03. > :04:07.terms? That is not right. It is not just me, we have a range of Tory
:04:08. > :04:12.Leavers who are backing her, because we think she has the weight and
:04:13. > :04:15.experience to deliver. But I am not sure what assurances you have got
:04:16. > :04:21.that she will deliver as you would want her to. For example, can you
:04:22. > :04:26.guarantee to our viewers that she will not settle for a British
:04:27. > :04:32.version of Norway's relationship with the EU, or Switzerland's
:04:33. > :04:38.relationship? We have said all along that we want a UK solution. It is
:04:39. > :04:42.not about trying to replicate someone else. We have a clear
:04:43. > :04:46.mandate to end the principle of unfettered free movement in the UK
:04:47. > :04:52.from elsewhere in the European Union. We saw Lily 200,000 people
:04:53. > :04:58.arrive in the UK last year. The British public want that to change.
:04:59. > :05:04.Theresa May palmist "Control of free movement. That needn't be the same
:05:05. > :05:07.as the end of free movement. What does she mean? That is what we
:05:08. > :05:12.campaigned on for four and a half months, taking back control. What I
:05:13. > :05:17.find unacceptable is that we cannot control the flow of people into the
:05:18. > :05:20.country. There will be times when we need to recruit particular skills
:05:21. > :05:25.and we need to allow people to move within businesses. We need to have a
:05:26. > :05:29.managed system. It is all about control. It is about our government
:05:30. > :05:34.being able to decide when, how and where the number of people who can
:05:35. > :05:37.come and live and work in the UK. But for some EU citizens, would
:05:38. > :05:44.there still be an automatic right to compare? It will depend on what our
:05:45. > :05:48.rules are. The whole point is that it is about control. At the moment,
:05:49. > :05:51.we cannot set limits on the number of people who live and work here.
:05:52. > :05:58.The clear mandate from the British public, something that Theresa
:05:59. > :06:03.recognised and said so in her opening speech last week we have to
:06:04. > :06:07.take back control of our migration. But we don't know what that means.
:06:08. > :06:11.It means our parliament being able to set limits on the number of
:06:12. > :06:17.people who can live and work here. What sort of limits? That will be
:06:18. > :06:22.decided depending on whether we have skills needs, housing shortages and
:06:23. > :06:24.circumstances. None of us think we will erect barricades at Dover and
:06:25. > :06:31.nobody can ever live and work in the UK. But it is fundamental that
:06:32. > :06:35.ultimate control should reside with our government. Why do you trust has
:06:36. > :06:39.me on free movement when after six years at the Home Office, she
:06:40. > :06:46.couldn't even get non-EU debt migration below 100,000, which was
:06:47. > :06:50.the promise, never mind overall net migration? First of all, we spent
:06:51. > :06:56.five of those six years in coalition with the Liberal Democrats. She was
:06:57. > :06:59.not stopped from doing anything. We have just passed our first
:07:00. > :07:03.conservative only immigration act that will allow us to close the bank
:07:04. > :07:07.accounts and taking away the driving licences of people who overstate.
:07:08. > :07:12.One of the problems is people who come here legitimately for a short
:07:13. > :07:17.time, but never go. But she was so far out. Net migration was three
:07:18. > :07:20.times the target she agreed to six years ago. Why would you trust her
:07:21. > :07:25.to get it right when so far, she's got it wrong? If you look at the
:07:26. > :07:30.flow of migrants from inside the European Union, she had no ability
:07:31. > :07:34.to control that. But she has not controlled those from outside. We
:07:35. > :07:37.have just passed our first Conservative only immigration act.
:07:38. > :07:43.There have been limits to what we could do in coalition. As Theresa
:07:44. > :07:46.May herself said the other day, it is difficult because people are
:07:47. > :07:51.constantly looking for new ways around our system. I believe the
:07:52. > :07:58.acts we past two months ago will make a difference. Were our borders
:07:59. > :08:02.safer under Mrs May than they were in 2010? Our borders are safe in
:08:03. > :08:08.terms of counterterrorism. What has she done to make us safer? A huge
:08:09. > :08:12.amount has been done to protect our borders. In Calais, we now have a
:08:13. > :08:16.much better system of border control. We have been able to resist
:08:17. > :08:20.enormous pressure from people who want to come in illegally. What has
:08:21. > :08:27.she done to make British borders safer? She'd traduced new measures
:08:28. > :08:30.on the immigration front -- introduced new measures. She
:08:31. > :08:34.negotiated international agreements so that Abu Qatada was ported to
:08:35. > :08:41.Jordan. In my view, she has done a huge amount to improve the security
:08:42. > :08:45.services. As Home Secretary, she is responsible for MI5. They have done
:08:46. > :08:52.a fantastic job protecting us. Will she rule out a second referendum?
:08:53. > :08:57.There is no question of a second referendum. One of her supporters,
:08:58. > :09:00.Dominic Grieve, says people can change their minds. We are all clear
:09:01. > :09:03.that there is not going to be a second referendum. We can't just say
:09:04. > :09:08.to the British public, we don't like what you said, so we are going to
:09:09. > :09:14.ask again. Those of us who campaigned for Leave would not serve
:09:15. > :09:21.in a government that chucked away the first result and decided to have
:09:22. > :09:25.another go. Speaking of the campaign, do you regard the promises
:09:26. > :09:33.vote leaves made during the referendum as sacrosanct? I said to
:09:34. > :09:37.you that a campaign group can only make recommendations. But you made a
:09:38. > :09:41.number of promises. You promised explicitly that the status of EU
:09:42. > :09:46.citizens already here would not change. Mrs May is not promising
:09:47. > :09:50.that. I cannot conceive of a situation where we want to end the
:09:51. > :09:57.rights of EU citizens who are here to not remain. There are always
:09:58. > :10:02.individual circumstances... But she is talking about them being a
:10:03. > :10:06.bargaining chip. You said during the campaign, there will be no change
:10:07. > :10:10.for EU citizens already lawfully resident in the UK. Mrs May is not
:10:11. > :10:15.saying that. For those who have been more than five years in the UK, that
:10:16. > :10:18.is legally the case. But we want to make sure we can protect our own
:10:19. > :10:23.citizens in other EU countries. It is right that a UK Government should
:10:24. > :10:28.have its own system. But during the campaign, you never said there will
:10:29. > :10:31.be no change to EU citizens here, provided the EU looks after our
:10:32. > :10:37.citizens over there. That was never a condition. Now are you saying it
:10:38. > :10:40.is? I don't think there will be any change on either side. Everyone will
:10:41. > :10:44.take a grown-up approach might it would be too damaging to do
:10:45. > :10:51.otherwise. But we must look after the interests of our own citizens.
:10:52. > :10:54.So why doesn't she say that? She says she doesn't want to agree
:10:55. > :10:59.anything until she sees how they treat our citizens. Are you
:11:00. > :11:03.comfortable with the line she has taken? The only people who support
:11:04. > :11:09.her on this are the BNP. She has said what I have said. I am
:11:10. > :11:13.expecting all it is except those who have committed criminal offences to
:11:14. > :11:18.be able to stay -- all EU citizens. That is right and proper, but we
:11:19. > :11:25.must make sure we can look after the rights of new cases and is. Has Mrs
:11:26. > :11:30.May guaranteed to you that we will be out of the EU by the next general
:11:31. > :11:34.election? She has said we will trigger article 50 around the end of
:11:35. > :11:38.this year. There is then a two-year time frame and the next general
:11:39. > :11:45.election is 2020. So I can't see any circumstance in which we would not
:11:46. > :11:49.leave by then. Gone by 2020. Chris Grayling, thank you.
:11:50. > :11:51.After a protracted campaign of resignations, a massive vote
:11:52. > :11:54.of no confidence from his MPs, and an attempt by his deputy
:11:55. > :11:56.to negotiate some sort of compromise deal with the unions,
:11:57. > :12:04.it's now clear the Jeremy Corbyn will face a leadership challenge.
:12:05. > :12:10.Some suspected it might fizzle out, but Angela Eagle has finally
:12:11. > :12:15.announced she will go for the top job after all, saying she wants to
:12:16. > :12:22.explain her vision for the country. It comes after Labour's deputy
:12:23. > :12:25.leader Tom Watson called off a debate over Jeremy Corbyn's future,
:12:26. > :12:29.saying there was no realistic prospect of reaching a compromise
:12:30. > :12:33.because of this to Corbyn's refusal to stand down. That provoked an
:12:34. > :12:39.angry response from Unite leader Len McCluskey, who said Tom Watson's
:12:40. > :12:42.actions today can only look like an act of sabotage, fraught with peril
:12:43. > :12:47.for the future of the Labour Party. So what happens now? Angela Eagle
:12:48. > :12:52.needs to get the backing of 20% of MPs and MEPs. The magic and Amber is
:12:53. > :12:57.currently 51. There is also the prospect of another senior Labour
:12:58. > :13:01.figure like Owen Smith throwing his hat into the ring. The big question
:13:02. > :13:05.remains over whether Jeremy Corbyn automatically gets onto the ballot,
:13:06. > :13:09.or whether he needs to get 51 nominations himself, a difficult
:13:10. > :13:16.task, given that the Labour leader lost the vote of no-confidence among
:13:17. > :13:20.his MPs by 172 votes to 40. But if he does get on the ballot paper, it
:13:21. > :13:23.is Angela Eagle who has the difficult job. Over a quarter of a
:13:24. > :13:28.million people voted for Mr Corbyn in the last Labour leadership
:13:29. > :13:31.election. Nearly 60% of the vote. Since the EU referendum, nearly
:13:32. > :13:37.130,000 people have joined the Labour Party. But it is unclear how
:13:38. > :13:40.many of them want to help or hinder Jeremy Corbyn's leadership.
:13:41. > :13:42.Jeremy Corbyn appeared on the Andrew Marr programme
:13:43. > :13:45.a little earlier on BBC One - and was in no mood
:13:46. > :13:48.Why time-limit a leadership when I've been elected
:13:49. > :13:50.by a very large number of members and supporters
:13:51. > :13:58.an election somewhere results in a different leader,
:13:59. > :14:02.But I would be irresponsible if I walked away
:14:03. > :14:05.from a mandate that I was given and a responsibility I was given.
:14:06. > :14:08.I ask colleagues to respect that as well.
:14:09. > :14:21.Why are you challenging Jeremy Corbyn for the Labour leadership? I
:14:22. > :14:26.think it's clear that he has lost the confidence of MPs in the
:14:27. > :14:29.parliamentary party. Tom Watson, Howard deputy leader, who has his
:14:30. > :14:35.own mandate Rosie Winterton, the Chief Whip, John Quire, the chair of
:14:36. > :14:40.the Parliamentary Labour Party and a friend of Jeremy's, have been going
:14:41. > :14:44.to try to say to him that he needs the confidence of the Parliamentary
:14:45. > :14:48.party to continue. He's not listening. You can't leave behind an
:14:49. > :14:51.office door. Maybe he is not listening because he has a huge
:14:52. > :14:57.mandate from the party membership. As Labour leader, he has won every
:14:58. > :14:59.by-election and he has won the London mayoral election, the largest
:15:00. > :15:04.party in the local governor elections. Why wouldn't he carry on?
:15:05. > :15:09.We lost seats in the local government elections when we have a
:15:10. > :15:14.Conservative government. We should be doing better. Polling shows that
:15:15. > :15:19.we are 7% behind the Conservatives, even after all the tumult they have
:15:20. > :15:24.been through and more importantly, we lost the EU referendum.
:15:25. > :15:31.That was not his fault. No, but he wasn't connecting with Labour voters
:15:32. > :15:35.and he did not put the argument across, and so I think we need a
:15:36. > :15:42.strengthened Labour Party and an opposition which can unite so we can
:15:43. > :15:45.heal the country. Unfortunately I don't think Jeremy Corbyn can do
:15:46. > :15:54.that job. Other than Trident, what are the major policy differences?
:15:55. > :15:59.I'm on the left, any party IDs will be anti-austerity, what has happened
:16:00. > :16:04.in our heartlands, they have been hit by six years of Conservative
:16:05. > :16:13.cuts -- any party I lead. That is Jeremy Corbyn, that is his position,
:16:14. > :16:17.as well, what are the differences? I want to be a strong united
:16:18. > :16:20.opposition to get into government. Jeremy was asked in that interview
:16:21. > :16:26.three times whether he thought he could win a general election and he
:16:27. > :16:30.did not say yes. For our supporters and for the people we came into
:16:31. > :16:34.politics to represent, we need a Labour Party that can position
:16:35. > :16:39.itself as a strong united opposition and win a general election. In your
:16:40. > :16:44.view that is having a leader as a winner, but what are the major
:16:45. > :16:49.policy differences? I don't think Jeremy has managed to get across a
:16:50. > :16:53.strategy for winning. I'm on the left and my politics came out of
:16:54. > :17:01.what happened when I was growing up when my parents, they were prevented
:17:02. > :17:07.from fulfilling their opportunities because we had Labour governments I
:17:08. > :17:11.was able to fulfil mind, and I want a Labour Party that can deliver
:17:12. > :17:18.that. Jeremy does not talk about that. We will move on. He is the
:17:19. > :17:19.incumbent leader, should he not be on the ballot against you as a
:17:20. > :17:37.right? The Labour Party rules and the way it is done, and Jeremy
:17:38. > :17:47.Chardy know this, Tony Benn challenged Neil Kinnock in 1988 --
:17:48. > :17:51.Jeremy should know this. It is not clear he had to do this. Neil
:17:52. > :17:56.Kinnock can't remember if he had to do this, or whether he did it to
:17:57. > :18:01.show the strength. Putting aside the roles, most people watching this
:18:02. > :18:05.programme, not just Jeremy Corbyn fans, they will find it strange that
:18:06. > :18:08.the man who won the leadership fairly and decisively, now
:18:09. > :18:13.challenged by you, is not automatically allowed to defend his
:18:14. > :18:16.title? That is not clear from the Labour Party rules, the National
:18:17. > :18:21.executive committee will make a decision on that. Anyone who aspires
:18:22. > :18:26.to lead the Parliamentary party who can't get 51 members, 20% of the
:18:27. > :18:31.Parliamentary party, to back them, they are not going to be able to do
:18:32. > :18:34.the job properly and we are in challenging times, the Brexit vote,
:18:35. > :18:39.a government which has gone missing in action. We need a strong lead
:18:40. > :18:43.from the Labour Party if we are going to protect our communities who
:18:44. > :18:48.are going to be the hardest hit. Nothing of that lead is coming from
:18:49. > :18:53.Jeremy at the moment. You are the self-styled party of fairness, don't
:18:54. > :18:58.you think it will offend against natural justice against most
:18:59. > :19:02.people's idea of fairness if the incumbent who is challenged by you
:19:03. > :19:08.is not allowed to fight you in an election? Work that seem incredible?
:19:09. > :19:15.Forget the rules, just offends against fairness. I don't know what
:19:16. > :19:20.the outcome is going to be of the decision-making process. I'm ready
:19:21. > :19:25.to fight a leadership challenge and have debates about the future of our
:19:26. > :19:29.party with anyone, Jeremy or anyone else who seeks to stand. Len
:19:30. > :19:35.McCluskey, the most important person in the Labour Party, perhaps. Not
:19:36. > :19:41.say that. I have a lot of respect him, but that is a big perhaps. He
:19:42. > :19:47.says keeping Jeremy Corbyn of the ballot would cause lasting division
:19:48. > :19:52.in the party. It would. This is not about the Labour Party being split,
:19:53. > :19:57.this is about it being an effective and united opposition to make our
:19:58. > :20:00.democracy work so we can challenge is Conservative government which has
:20:01. > :20:05.done such damage with the Brexit vote. I want to say that if you
:20:06. > :20:11.think we should have a strong and effective Labour Party and a strong
:20:12. > :20:15.democracy, challenging the Conservatives, join the Labour Party
:20:16. > :20:20.now. Do it today, you can do it online. 130,000 new members have
:20:21. > :20:28.joined Labour since the referendum. Who are they? The Labour Party
:20:29. > :20:34.nationally knows who they are. Have they been vetted? I have no idea at
:20:35. > :20:39.what the Labour Party office are doing about the new members. But it
:20:40. > :20:44.is important that people who think that we need a strong opposition,
:20:45. > :20:51.jaundiced battle now, joined the Labour Party, make us stronger --
:20:52. > :20:56.join this battle now. The 130,000 people who have joined already, they
:20:57. > :20:59.should be allowed to vote? That is a matter for the National if sect of
:21:00. > :21:05.committee to decide, they were in the past. -- National executive
:21:06. > :21:11.committee. There is no point in them joining if they can't. We opened up
:21:12. > :21:18.the ?3 membership which was a feature the last campaign. 150,000
:21:19. > :21:21.people are going to be picking the next Conservative Prime Minister, we
:21:22. > :21:27.have had nearly that number joining in the last week. Jeremy Corbyn
:21:28. > :21:33.would say he won by over 235,000 voting for him. You expect to be the
:21:34. > :21:39.only challenger? I have no idea. What about Owen Smith? We have
:21:40. > :21:42.spoken, but not recently, I've got no idea, I'm concentrating on
:21:43. > :21:47.launching my campaign which I will be doing tomorrow. It would be
:21:48. > :21:52.absurd for you and Owen Smith or someone else from the middle of the
:21:53. > :22:00.party, the moderate left, to split the anti-Corbyn vote? We have got to
:22:01. > :22:05.get on with doing our planning and see what happens in the future. I'm
:22:06. > :22:09.concentrating on getting my campaign up and running, launching it
:22:10. > :22:14.tomorrow, and joining a battle to have a stronger and united Labour
:22:15. > :22:21.Party which can give hope back to our country. You voted for the Iraq
:22:22. > :22:26.war. Do you regret that? I do, and if I had known what I know now, I
:22:27. > :22:29.would not have supported it. The important thing from the Chilcot
:22:30. > :22:35.Report is that we learn the lessons of that so those mistakes can never
:22:36. > :22:39.be made again in the future. John Prescott this morning, he also voted
:22:40. > :22:46.for it, he says he now regards the war as illegal. Chilcot has not said
:22:47. > :22:51.that. I'm asking you. It is important that we learn the lessons.
:22:52. > :22:54.Do you think it was illegal? The evidence at the time and the
:22:55. > :22:57.Attorney General's opinion at the time was not to that effect and it
:22:58. > :23:02.is no good trying to second-guess what happened subsequently. We need
:23:03. > :23:06.to learn the lessons and we need to make sure that if anything like that
:23:07. > :23:11.happens in the future we have more robust ways of testing these
:23:12. > :23:16.assertions, but I also think we have a country divided at the moment. You
:23:17. > :23:21.have said that. Very uncertain about the future. You have said that. We
:23:22. > :23:27.have got to address those problems. I understand that. But forgive me,
:23:28. > :23:32.we have not got much time, they will be a motion before Parliament next
:23:33. > :23:36.week holding Tony Blair for contempt of Parliament because of Iraq, how
:23:37. > :23:40.will you vote? I have not seen the motion yet. We have got to make
:23:41. > :23:45.certain that we don't spend our time in Parliament exacting revenge and I
:23:46. > :23:50.think Tony Blair has been put rightly through the mill about the
:23:51. > :23:55.decisions he took, the Chilcot Report did that, and I think we
:23:56. > :23:58.should... We would be far better at learning the lessons and making
:23:59. > :24:04.certain that we don't fall into the same mistakes if God forbid they
:24:05. > :24:10.should be a future occasion where these decisions are made. -- there.
:24:11. > :24:13.Final question, you talk about uniting Labour and the country,
:24:14. > :24:19.taking on the Tories, but if you lose and Jeremy Corbyn wins or the
:24:20. > :24:22.reverse, isn't there a clear indication that your party could be
:24:23. > :24:29.heading for a serious schism? Either way. We need to heal the party under
:24:30. > :24:33.effective leadership, so we can have a chance of winning the general
:24:34. > :24:38.election which might come much sooner than we all think. And that
:24:39. > :24:46.is my main aim with launching this leadership campaign. If he wins, you
:24:47. > :24:49.will accept the result? You have to accept the result of any... You
:24:50. > :24:55.would go back into the Shadow Cabinet? You have to accept the
:24:56. > :24:58.result of any democratic process but I'm focused on winning this and I'm
:24:59. > :25:01.not going to speculate about what happens afterwards. Angela Eagle,
:25:02. > :25:06.busy summer head, thank you. It's clear the battle inside Labour
:25:07. > :25:09.is about to get nasty - in the last hour, the MP
:25:10. > :25:12.who initiated the vote of no confidence in Jeremy Corbyn,
:25:13. > :25:14.Margaret Hodge, had this to say I'm beginning to think he's
:25:15. > :25:20.actually a devious man, who is more concerned
:25:21. > :25:22.with destroying the Labour Party than he is with creating a force
:25:23. > :25:25.that can win an election in such difficult times and which
:25:26. > :25:40.will unite the party. There we are. We have heard from
:25:41. > :25:48.Chris Grayling and Angela Eagle and Jeremy Corbyn this morning. Helen,
:25:49. > :25:53.whatever the outcome, it looks like this ends badly for Labour. It is
:25:54. > :25:56.very interesting. In the new statesman we did an issue about
:25:57. > :26:03.whether Labour should split, and we said, no, but are now talking to
:26:04. > :26:08.Labour MPs who are openly talking about this, people who are tribally
:26:09. > :26:14.Labour and are not metropolitan, they are saying this cannot be sewn
:26:15. > :26:18.back together. The big question, if Jeremy Corbyn gets on the ballot and
:26:19. > :26:21.gets 50 MPs, I think he will win, but if he doesn't get on, that
:26:22. > :26:26.becomes a case of his faction splitting off, so the battle is...
:26:27. > :26:31.Everyone is imagining a split, but it is who gets left with custody of
:26:32. > :26:36.the party. Control of the Labour brand, which is powerful. The union
:26:37. > :26:41.funding is on a downward slope, already, the trade union is going to
:26:42. > :26:45.reduce that further, Labour have had very little success with big donors
:26:46. > :26:51.under Jeremy Corbyn. There is a fundamental force at work. The
:26:52. > :26:53.party's grassroots once a different Labour Parliamentary party and the
:26:54. > :26:59.Parliamentary Labour Party would like a different grassroots. One or
:27:00. > :27:04.the other has to go its own way. You can't reconcile them. The texture of
:27:05. > :27:07.the grassroots has changed in the past year, since the party was
:27:08. > :27:12.opened up by Ed Miliband to new members. It might be changing in the
:27:13. > :27:18.other direction even as we speak 130,000 new members since June, the
:27:19. > :27:21.equivalent of the size of the Tory party, it is possible the bulk of
:27:22. > :27:25.those people are people that might be, since the referendum campaign,
:27:26. > :27:31.might want a party that is moderate. We don't know that. Angela Eagle is
:27:32. > :27:36.taking a punt on the idea that those are relatively centrist voters, but
:27:37. > :27:41.what I'd take from her and Owen Smith, is not a massive amount of
:27:42. > :27:45.enthusiasm for running for this big ship, they don't radiate glee at the
:27:46. > :27:48.prospect of becoming leader, so I wonder if the idea is to have an
:27:49. > :27:52.interim leader who is moderate and then before 2020 and onto someone
:27:53. > :28:00.who they think can win a general election. It is a big part on her
:28:01. > :28:06.part. She sounded so miserable. -- punt. She sounded very depressed
:28:07. > :28:10.about the idea of launching aided ship contest and that is because
:28:11. > :28:15.there is no resolution to this. -- launching a leadership contest. If
:28:16. > :28:21.she wins it is a pyrrhic victory, but if she loses, it won't be
:28:22. > :28:25.resolved, and it feels like it will not be resolved until the next
:28:26. > :28:29.general election, when the public and determine what kind of Labour
:28:30. > :28:34.MPs they both like to fight for that election. It could be a bloodbath.
:28:35. > :28:40.Last year it was quite lively, and this year, there might be a lot of
:28:41. > :28:45.screaming at the Labour Party conference. It would be worth the
:28:46. > :28:53.price of admission to both party conferences this autumn.
:28:54. > :28:55.The referendum result came as a shock to many, not least those
:28:56. > :28:59.Lucy Thomas was deputy director of Britain Stronger In.
:29:00. > :29:01.In an exclusive for the Sunday Politics, she talks to fellow
:29:02. > :29:03.campaign insiders about how the referendum was lost.
:29:04. > :29:06.We are absolutely clear now that there is no way
:29:07. > :29:10.Right up until the end, we thought Remain could win.
:29:11. > :29:16.I'm Lucy Thomas, and I was deputy director of that campaign,
:29:17. > :29:18.and one of those that was there from the beginning.
:29:19. > :29:21.This is the story of what we did and why,
:29:22. > :29:24.but why, in the end, it wasn't enough.
:29:25. > :29:26.So let's go back to where it started.
:29:27. > :29:29.We launched Britain Stronger In Europe on a cold October morning
:29:30. > :29:39.Cue the usual jokes about our organisation.
:29:40. > :29:43.We set out to persuade people that Britain was stronger,
:29:44. > :29:46.safer and better off in Europe than we would be out on our own,
:29:47. > :29:49.and that leaving was a leap in the dark, a risk
:29:50. > :29:54.As a nation of Eurosceptics, we always knew it would be tough,
:29:55. > :29:58.but I'm not sure we were prepared for what the early research showed.
:29:59. > :30:00.When we presented that and we discussed it
:30:01. > :30:02.with you and the team, I think everybody sort
:30:03. > :30:07.God, this is going to be harder than we thought.
:30:08. > :30:10.So we built a campaign based on numbers.
:30:11. > :30:13.It's the economy, stupid, and it had been proven to work
:30:14. > :30:16.in the Scottish referendum and the general election.
:30:17. > :30:25.One of the reasons why some of the specific warnings
:30:26. > :30:27.would have bounced off people was because it sounded
:30:28. > :30:29.like scaremongering, because it wasn't evidence.
:30:30. > :30:32.It was just saying, if we vote to leave,
:30:33. > :30:34.it will cost this many jobs or this much growth
:30:35. > :30:41.And people said they were crying out to hear from the experts.
:30:42. > :30:45.to economists, scientists to defence chiefs, they all spoke
:30:46. > :30:50.for themselves, and the weight of expert opinion was overwhelming.
:30:51. > :30:56.if the UK was to leave the European Union.
:30:57. > :30:59.Material slowdown in growth, notable increase in inflation.
:31:00. > :31:05.In a sense, we were the victims of our own success in the early
:31:06. > :31:07.part of the campaign, because we landed our economic
:31:08. > :31:14.We pushed the Leave campaign from Norway to Canada to Albania,
:31:15. > :31:17.and then finally pushed them entirely off the single market.
:31:18. > :31:20.Of course, what it meant was that that was the moment
:31:21. > :31:24.Nigel Farage's approach to this referendum, and to make it
:31:25. > :31:30.Imagine what will happen to public services...
:31:31. > :31:33.When I first saw their PPB, the one with all the arrows
:31:34. > :31:37.implying that millions of people from all sorts of countries
:31:38. > :31:40.including Turkey and possibly other countries that aren't in the EU
:31:41. > :31:43.are going to come and move to Britain, and I showed
:31:44. > :31:47.that to focus groups, it was very powerful,
:31:48. > :31:50.because it captured the anxiety and fear and emotion
:31:51. > :31:53.people have at the prospect of being overwhelmed
:31:54. > :31:57.and these are all terms I would hear in the focus groups.
:31:58. > :32:04.and the literature that was used off the back of it was very powerful.
:32:05. > :32:09.I also knew, of course, that it was purposefully choosing
:32:10. > :32:15.So we always knew that immigration was a problem,
:32:16. > :32:25.around this table, that lots of the discussions were heard.
:32:26. > :32:28.Some wondered, was there more we could do to get EU leaders
:32:29. > :32:30.to show more flexibility on free movement, maybe?
:32:31. > :32:32.But to others, that meant fighting the rest of the campaign
:32:33. > :32:36.on immigration, when we needed for it to be back on the economy.
:32:37. > :32:39.If you could solve the problem of free movement, it would have been
:32:40. > :32:45.If you can't solve the problem of immigration, moving
:32:46. > :32:47.on to immigration might make things worse, not better.
:32:48. > :32:54.But given what we did know, it made sense to stick to the economy.
:32:55. > :32:56.But it became clear that for some people,
:32:57. > :32:59.that economic risk didn't mean anything.
:33:00. > :33:03.I spoke to one man in my constituency who was out one day,
:33:04. > :33:08.He was voting to leave because of all those concerns
:33:09. > :33:15."I understand your concerns about that.
:33:16. > :33:18.What do you think about the argument that leaving would be
:33:19. > :33:21.he said, "What do I care about the economy?
:33:22. > :33:27.There are lots of people in Britain who do feel passed over,
:33:28. > :33:32.They don't see what the future could hold for them or their children,
:33:33. > :33:38.This referendum was a chance to attach that anger to the EU.
:33:39. > :33:45.Shouldn't Labour have been able to reach out to those voters?
:33:46. > :33:49.The brutal truth is that the leader of the Labour Party did not
:33:50. > :33:53.campaign with authenticity, passion, conviction
:33:54. > :34:01.He said he was for Remain, but it was on quite a narrow basis,
:34:02. > :34:09.in terms of what the broader argument could be.
:34:10. > :34:13.Polling took place during the campaign that showed half
:34:14. > :34:19.that our official position was for Remain.
:34:20. > :34:22.So I think more could have been done, yes.
:34:23. > :34:25.And whether it was true or not, the Leave campaign was determined
:34:26. > :34:32.The power of the 350 million a week can't be overstated.
:34:33. > :34:36.In focus groups, it is quite unusual for floating voters who aren't
:34:37. > :34:40.interested in politics to have internalised a campaign fact
:34:41. > :34:44.or number so that it comes out spontaneously, and it did.
:34:45. > :34:47.When we would say, have you noticed that some people are saying that
:34:48. > :34:51.isn't actually true, people would say, "Vaguely,
:34:52. > :34:54.but it's still a very big number, isn't it?"
:34:55. > :35:01.In the final debate, just days before the vote,
:35:02. > :35:04.the Leave campaign came armed with their catch-all phrase
:35:05. > :35:08.Taking back control of our country and our system.
:35:09. > :35:14.We can take back control over our laws.
:35:15. > :35:16.We can take back control over our taxes.
:35:17. > :35:19.We can take back control over our borders,
:35:20. > :35:29.They were being presented with a simple solution, which was,
:35:30. > :35:31.if you think this is a problem and migration is putting pressures
:35:32. > :35:34.on our public services and jobs, we can take back control.
:35:35. > :35:37.The way I would put it was that we had a complex truth
:35:38. > :35:44.up against a simple lie, and we see what happened.
:35:45. > :35:48.And what happened will be talked about for decades.
:35:49. > :35:50.Though we built the biggest ever cross-party, cross-sector campaign
:35:51. > :35:56.with over 40,000 volunteers, we didn't win the day.
:35:57. > :35:58.This was a campaign where experts were dismissed
:35:59. > :36:00.and conventional wisdom thrown out of the window.
:36:01. > :36:10.Many doubt if campaigns will ever be the same again.
:36:11. > :36:15.And Matthew Elliott from Vote Leave will be looking at how their
:36:16. > :36:21.campaign won the referendum on the Daily Politics. Isabel, having
:36:22. > :36:25.looked at that and seen what they are now saying, I now find myself
:36:26. > :36:30.surprised that Remain lost by only four percentage points. Right. The
:36:31. > :36:32.bottom line is that their big argument on the economy, they went
:36:33. > :36:37.grossly over the top at the beginning. They tried to create what
:36:38. > :36:41.pollsters call a settled view, which then becomes difficult to dislodge.
:36:42. > :36:46.But in doing so, they went so far over the top that their claims
:36:47. > :36:49.became unbelievable, and simply adding more experts to its got no
:36:50. > :36:54.response from the electorate. Secondly, and more importantly, they
:36:55. > :37:00.had no answer on the immigration question. I think the majority of
:37:01. > :37:03.people who voted Leave, whether or not they would admit it, well, in
:37:04. > :37:08.their heart of hearts, voting so because of immigration, and Remain
:37:09. > :37:11.had no answer on that. You didn't have to be a rocket scientist or
:37:12. > :37:16.even a psephologists work-out that immigration was going to be the big
:37:17. > :37:19.issue. We have spoken about it on this programme months before the
:37:20. > :37:26.campaign began, and yet even by the end of the campaign, they still had
:37:27. > :37:31.no answer to the immigration issue. That is the legacy of years of
:37:32. > :37:34.British politics, when no one will make a positive case for
:37:35. > :37:38.immigration, or a case for the trade-off, where you say we accept
:37:39. > :37:41.immigration because of the economic benefits. The economic argument
:37:42. > :37:44.failed because people didn't feel that all these years of prosperity
:37:45. > :37:48.in the City of London had any translation to the real economy. So
:37:49. > :37:50.when we said it would be terrible for the City of London, people
:37:51. > :37:59.thought, what has that got to do with me? Was there anything Remain
:38:00. > :38:01.could have done to have won? I think a different renegotiation in January
:38:02. > :38:08.or February by the Prime Minister Cold War which secured some tangible
:38:09. > :38:12.concession on -- by the Prime Minister, some negotiation which
:38:13. > :38:18.achieved a concession on immigration would have done it. People didn't
:38:19. > :38:21.feel they were getting that, and therefore, it was very interesting.
:38:22. > :38:25.It wasn't the internal dynamics of the campaign that was at fault. The
:38:26. > :38:29.reason they didn't have a answer was because Cameron didn't come back
:38:30. > :38:34.with something solid. So it was Angela Merkel what lost it? Yes, and
:38:35. > :38:37.I am sure she is now bitterly regretting not giving Cameron
:38:38. > :38:42.something. The other thing is that I know that when the Britain Stronger
:38:43. > :38:46.In Europe campaign had their early meetings before the campaign
:38:47. > :38:48.officially began, they had a discussion about identifying five
:38:49. > :38:52.positive things about being in the EU that we can sell to voters, and
:38:53. > :38:57.they couldn't come up with any. That was again part of the problem. They
:38:58. > :39:01.failed to put a positive case, it was just Project Fear. It was also
:39:02. > :39:06.David Cameron what lost it, because for years, to get selected in the
:39:07. > :39:09.Tory party, you had to be Eurosceptic. He then had a career
:39:10. > :39:14.saying it would not be a problem if we leave, and then pivoted to say
:39:15. > :39:18.the sky would fall in. A lot of voters concluded, that is typical of
:39:19. > :39:20.the political elite. Making it up as you go along.
:39:21. > :39:22.It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
:39:23. > :39:25.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now
:39:26. > :39:35.Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics in Northern Ireland.
:39:36. > :39:39.The Chilcot Report has left a stain on Tony Blair's reputation and led
:39:40. > :39:42.to calls from some families of Iraq war veterans for him
:39:43. > :39:47.But how is he viewed here, 18 years after the signing
:39:48. > :39:51.With their assessment I'm joined from London
:39:52. > :39:54.by the DUP's Ian Paisley, and here in Belfast by the SDLP's
:39:55. > :40:03.And with their thoughts on all of that, I'm joined
:40:04. > :40:06.by the business journalist Paul Gosling and the political
:40:07. > :40:11.It took seven years to complete, and for many its conclusions are set
:40:12. > :40:14.to go down in history as Tony Blair's legacy.
:40:15. > :40:17.Sir John Chilcot's report into the Iraq war only confirmed
:40:18. > :40:19.what many had long claimed - that there was no "imminent
:40:20. > :40:21.threat" from Saddam, and the intelligence case
:40:22. > :40:31.for going to war was "not justified".
:40:32. > :40:33.Tony Blair has apologised for any mistakes made, but not
:40:34. > :40:43.I did not mislead this country. I made the decision in good faith, on
:40:44. > :40:47.the information I had at the time, and I believe it is better that we
:40:48. > :40:52.took that decision. I acknowledge all the problems that came with that
:40:53. > :40:57.decision. I acknowledge the mistakes, and accept responsibility
:40:58. > :40:59.for them. What I cannot do and will not do, is say I believe we took the
:41:00. > :41:01.wrong decision. So how will history
:41:02. > :41:03.judge Tony Blair here? The former Prime Minister's
:41:04. > :41:05.negotiation of the Good Friday Agreement was widely hailed as one
:41:06. > :41:07.of his greatest achievements. Joining me now from London
:41:08. > :41:10.are the DUP MP Ian Paisley, and here in the studio the former
:41:11. > :41:15.SDLP leader, Alasdair McDonnell. Ian Paisley, the DUP
:41:16. > :41:17.voted in support of the decision to go to war -
:41:18. > :41:30.what's your reaction to the report? I think we have two bought a number
:41:31. > :41:36.of things in context. Obviously Saddam Hussein was an incredibly
:41:37. > :41:40.wicked person, and Tony Blair brought him before Parliament --
:41:41. > :41:44.brought before Parliament evidence that was not evidence at all, but
:41:45. > :41:49.people took his word, and the style in which he led the Government,
:41:50. > :41:54.nobody else really got all the information, and that has now been
:41:55. > :42:00.totally exposed. I mean, he really is a Marmite Prime Minister, on one
:42:01. > :42:04.regard the most successful Labour Prime Minister, and now he seems to
:42:05. > :42:10.be becoming the most disgraced Prime Minister the Labour Party ever had.
:42:11. > :42:14.I think that now... The good thing about this is that Parliament will
:42:15. > :42:20.never go to war again on the time that they went to war in Iraq. And
:42:21. > :42:29.indeed the way decisions are taken, I mean, look how Syria has been
:42:30. > :42:32.handled. It now is very inclusive of the whole Cabinet administration,
:42:33. > :42:33.and includes Parliament in decisions which previously the Prime Minister
:42:34. > :42:35.only would have made. So with the benefit of hindsight,
:42:36. > :42:52.was it in fact a mistake What do you want me to say? Everyone
:42:53. > :42:57.was shown evidence, and with the exception of a handful of members of
:42:58. > :43:00.Parliament, everybody accepted that the Prime Minister was telling the
:43:01. > :43:03.truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth. We were moments from
:43:04. > :43:11.war. Do you think you were duped, then?
:43:12. > :43:16.I think everybody was stupid. -- was duped. I think that is what
:43:17. > :43:20.Chilcot has indicated. Whether or not Tony Blair was doing this in
:43:21. > :43:25.good faith or not, what he presented was false. And people took a
:43:26. > :43:29.decision on a false premise. Do you agree with Ian Paisley on
:43:30. > :43:36.that point? No, the evidence was always wobbly,
:43:37. > :43:44.and there were doubts the SDLP resolutely opposed -- that SDLP
:43:45. > :43:50.opposed going to war, and we voted against it in Parliament. And quite
:43:51. > :43:55.simply, you know, it was a major mistake, and where I look at it
:43:56. > :43:59.today the hundreds of young British servicemen dead, and there are
:44:00. > :44:04.200,000 Iraqis dead. Quite frankly, even though he wasn't a nice person,
:44:05. > :44:09.Saddam Hussein was not as big a threat to the world as that. That is
:44:10. > :44:15.serious, serious damage as a result of the instability in Iraq.
:44:16. > :44:18.But you could only go with the evidence that was put in front of
:44:19. > :44:22.Parliament, and at the time people believed Tony Blair.
:44:23. > :44:27.The evidence was flimsy because there was never any proof of the
:44:28. > :44:30.weapons of mass destruction. What we were dealing with was Saddam Hussein
:44:31. > :44:35.was a bully, he goaded Britain and he goaded America and they lost
:44:36. > :44:40.their temper with them. And basically charged off into a war,
:44:41. > :44:48.unprepared, the British military were unprepared in many cases, and
:44:49. > :44:51.left in a situation where many young 18-year-old, 19-year-old soldiers
:44:52. > :44:55.were basically left vulnerable and lost their lives.
:44:56. > :45:01.Ian Paisley? I think we all agree that the world
:45:02. > :45:04.is much more unstable as a result of what has happened. And that is a
:45:05. > :45:11.huge consequence that everybody's got to live with. But the point and
:45:12. > :45:15.the essential point is, how Parliament is used to take these
:45:16. > :45:18.decisions. It would have been previously that the Prime Minister
:45:19. > :45:23.and the Cabinet would have made a decision and gone to war. Now that
:45:24. > :45:26.Parliament is sucked into being participants in the process, on one
:45:27. > :45:30.hand that weakens Parliament because we cannot hold somebody to account
:45:31. > :45:35.if we have been a participant in the decision. But that is where we now
:45:36. > :45:38.are, but all decisions about Britain increasing troop movements in the
:45:39. > :45:45.Middle East for example, in Syria and other places like that, we are
:45:46. > :45:48.now brought into those decisions and we -- and is that where we want to
:45:49. > :45:50.be? In response to the Chilcot Report,
:45:51. > :45:52.Colonel Tim Collins said about Tony Blair: "It may well
:45:53. > :45:55.be he was actually drunk on his self-importance,
:45:56. > :45:57.having had successes in Kosovo and Sierra Leone, and having
:45:58. > :45:59.brokered the Good Friday Agreement he genuinely believed
:46:00. > :46:10.he could do no wrong." Does that mean we need to reassess
:46:11. > :46:22.his role in our peace process here? I don't think so. I think Tony Blair
:46:23. > :46:26.was almost -- there are almost in my mind two Tony Blair 's. He brought
:46:27. > :46:29.us to peace out of all belief... That hasn't changed with the Chilcot
:46:30. > :46:35.findings? There is another Tony Blair that
:46:36. > :46:39.charged off to war in Iraq, but I fundamentally disagree with. It is
:46:40. > :46:45.two different personalities, almost. I think he did a massive amount of
:46:46. > :46:52.good. I felt, over the years in the early 1990s, when it was difficult
:46:53. > :46:56.to get peace and stability here, yet he managed with Bertie Ahern and
:46:57. > :47:01.Bill Clinton aiding and abetting, to pull us all together. He spent an
:47:02. > :47:05.awful lot of time here, more time than all the other British prime
:47:06. > :47:09.ministers combined, and we've got to be honest and recognise that, that
:47:10. > :47:14.there are people live in Northern Ireland today in Belfast today as is
:47:15. > :47:20.well thought of Tony Blair's effort, but that's it's very uncomfortably
:47:21. > :47:24.and does not justify the Iraqi situation where basically he should
:47:25. > :47:29.not have been in Iraq. Do you agree, Ian Paisley, or do you
:47:30. > :47:32.think that given what we have now discovered in Chilcot, we need to
:47:33. > :47:35.now look again at his role in Northern Ireland?
:47:36. > :47:38.I think there's going to be constant revisionism about all political
:47:39. > :47:44.leaders, that's the nature of politics, as more evidence comes
:47:45. > :47:51.out. First of all, because Tony Blair was so successful I think it
:47:52. > :47:56.did not and arrogance but almost an issue of infallibility, that he
:47:57. > :48:03.could do no wrong. So I am more in the Tim: zero, because he was on a
:48:04. > :48:09.crest of a wave, he thought he could do anything. But now we are found --
:48:10. > :48:12.finding that the foundation on which his legacy was built is starting to
:48:13. > :48:16.crumble. I do agree he played a significant
:48:17. > :48:21.role in the Good Friday Agreement, but we have to remember that as we
:48:22. > :48:25.start to go into this, we now have the on the run letters being
:48:26. > :48:30.exposed, we have the fuel fraud that has come from that and the fact that
:48:31. > :48:35.there's been an agreement done on that side, all that criminality is
:48:36. > :48:40.still going on. That's part of his legacy.
:48:41. > :48:44.We need to turn to other issues. The seeming civil war that has
:48:45. > :48:51.broken out within the Conservative Party in Westminster, and the Labour
:48:52. > :48:56.Party. What is your assessment? I'm very concerned at the
:48:57. > :48:59.instability that has flowed in the last few weeks, and is largely
:49:00. > :49:06.flowing from the European referendum. You know, at this time
:49:07. > :49:11.we need stability, and I am deeply concerned that the leaders for the
:49:12. > :49:16.excellent campaign have all jumped ship and disappeared. What we badly
:49:17. > :49:20.need is people who, when something like that is approved, they won the
:49:21. > :49:25.vote, and therefore they should have stayed the course and ensured that
:49:26. > :49:29.their Brexit plans, they saw it through. I am horrified personally
:49:30. > :49:34.at the prospect of Britain exiting Europe, because it is bad for
:49:35. > :49:38.Britain, it is bad for Europe, it is bad for the island of Ireland as a
:49:39. > :49:43.whole and particularly bad for Northern Ireland. You don't sign up
:49:44. > :49:49.to the old maxim that England's misfortune as Ireland's opportunity?
:49:50. > :49:53.Quite simply, we are all stuck with each other. And I think this is one
:49:54. > :49:59.of the things that flowed from Tony Blair's investment in the 1998
:50:00. > :50:04.settlement, but quite simply we recognise that we are neighbours,
:50:05. > :50:08.the Irish Republic and Britain, and in the north here we are stuck
:50:09. > :50:13.somewhere in the middle half, foot in each camp. We have to get on with
:50:14. > :50:18.it, and quite simply instability in Irish politics over the last few
:50:19. > :50:21.months until they get -- got a Government together was bad for
:50:22. > :50:28.everybody. That instability is now affecting Britain, the Conservative
:50:29. > :50:36.Party is in a state of flux, the Labour Party is almost imploding in
:50:37. > :50:42.itself. Ian Paisley, if you did have a say in either of the two political
:50:43. > :50:47.contests, who would you be in favour of? The person who left the stage
:50:48. > :50:53.when he was most required is of course the Prime Minister. Did he
:50:54. > :50:58.have any alternative? He told us all along that he would implement the
:50:59. > :51:04.will of the British people, and in a fit of pique, four hours after the
:51:05. > :51:14.result was determined, you walk out. So it was not helping the -- the
:51:15. > :51:18.instability. We knew that Cameron was leaving... We do seem to have
:51:19. > :51:23.two big political parties imploding in front of our very eyes, you
:51:24. > :51:26.couldn't make it up. Fact is stranger than fiction. So how do you
:51:27. > :51:32.see things unfolding in the next couple of months? The issue of who
:51:33. > :51:36.leads the Conservatives is entirely a matter for the 150,000 members of
:51:37. > :51:40.the party, they must decide who will be their best leader and of course
:51:41. > :51:43.the leader will be a member of Parliament, and that leader will be
:51:44. > :51:47.the first among equals and will be the Prime Minister for the
:51:48. > :51:50.foreseeable future. It is at the Conservative Party, I am not going
:51:51. > :51:54.to come down on one side or the other. We will work with whoever the
:51:55. > :52:06.Conservative Party put forward, and we've
:52:07. > :52:09.already got working relationships with both Theresa May and Andrea
:52:10. > :52:11.Leadsom, Andrea's been over to speak with the association meetings,
:52:12. > :52:13.Theresa May has been a good friend in terms of giving us very good
:52:14. > :52:16.security briefings. And either one of them will make a fine leader.
:52:17. > :52:21.With regards to the Labour Party, what I'm saying is that Jeremy
:52:22. > :52:25.Corbyn should have led his party from his heart during the campaign,
:52:26. > :52:30.if he had done what we knew he wanted to do, that is be a leave
:52:31. > :52:34.campaigner, I think the outcome would have been different also. Very
:52:35. > :52:39.interesting to hear your thoughts. With me are Sam McBride
:52:40. > :52:51.of the News Letter, and the business Let's have a word about Tony Blair's
:52:52. > :52:57.achievements, and the findings of the Chilcot Report. It's fair to say
:52:58. > :53:01.probably that Tony Blair's achievements in Northern Ireland
:53:02. > :53:13.have won him more plaudits outside Northern Ireland than within. The
:53:14. > :53:17.sort of creative and be a good -- ambiguity in things like the on the
:53:18. > :53:22.run letters is still an issue that comes up time and time again. So
:53:23. > :53:29.yes, it's certainly harmed his legacy, I think a lot of people here
:53:30. > :53:34.probably had mixed emotions anyway. Paul, you are a former Labour Party
:53:35. > :53:38.councillor in Leicester, Tony Blair was Labour's longest serving Prime
:53:39. > :53:44.Minister. What do you think grassroots Labour Party members will
:53:45. > :53:53.make of the Chilcot findings, and his big success? I think the current
:53:54. > :53:56.problems within the Labour Party, the conflict between the
:53:57. > :53:59.Parliamentary party and the membership, are reflected in that as
:54:00. > :54:04.well, which is that I think most members of the Labour Party would
:54:05. > :54:08.not be surprised by the Chilcot findings, and they would have
:54:09. > :54:13.expressed extreme scepticism about the claims Tony Blair made at the
:54:14. > :54:17.time. But it is enormous regret that if Tony Blair had not taken the
:54:18. > :54:21.country to war with the United States to Iraq, his legacy would
:54:22. > :54:24.have been a very positive one. And above all it would have been the
:54:25. > :54:28.peace settlement in Northern Ireland. And that is, his position
:54:29. > :54:33.of history will always be a leader who lied his way into war in Iraq,
:54:34. > :54:36.and went in to support the United States and actually very much like
:54:37. > :54:50.Brexit, didn't have a contingency plan about the outcome. How do you
:54:51. > :54:57.see become -- the contest is going in the Labour Party? You do have a
:54:58. > :55:00.civil war which is effectively between the Parliamentary party on
:55:01. > :55:04.the membership, and you cannot see a positive outcome from that, I cannot
:55:05. > :55:10.see Corbyn leading it, and I cannot see Angela Eagle being accepted by
:55:11. > :55:12.the leadership. The onus has been on Corbyn losing the support of his
:55:13. > :55:29.MPs, in fact he never had it. Quick word on the Conservative
:55:30. > :55:34.Party; do you think Andrea Leadsom is a credible candidate? It's pretty
:55:35. > :55:37.extraordinary that anybody who has been in Parliament for such a short
:55:38. > :55:43.period of time could be Prime Minister for -- in such -- without
:55:44. > :55:47.going to an election, but that's the way we are.
:55:48. > :55:49.Well, the Secretary of State, Theresa Villiers, has rejected
:55:50. > :55:52.a call for an All-Ireland forum to consider the implications of Brexit.
:55:53. > :55:54.In an interview with our Political Correspondent Gareth
:55:55. > :55:56.Gordon, she also described a lower UK-wide rate of Corporation Tax
:55:57. > :55:57.as an opportunity for Northern Ireland.
:55:58. > :56:01.Here, first of all, are her thoughts on the idea of a new forum.
:56:02. > :56:04.It's obviously going to be very important for the UK Government to
:56:05. > :56:08.work with the Irish Government on matters of mutual interest in
:56:09. > :56:12.relation to Brexit. And also it's important for the Executive to be
:56:13. > :56:17.involved in those discussions. But actually I think the current
:56:18. > :56:24.North-South bodies are working very well, and so I haven't seen a case
:56:25. > :56:30.for a fresh body to be added to the current structures, but I would
:56:31. > :56:35.absolutely encourage both sides of those North-South bodies to engage
:56:36. > :56:41.in these issues just as the UK and Irish Government would do on the
:56:42. > :56:45.East-West contact. I am not persuaded we need some new structure
:56:46. > :56:48.to have this conversation, but it is absolutely vital that the
:56:49. > :56:53.conversation takes place. The UK Government, Northern Irish
:56:54. > :57:04.Government, -- Irish Government, Northern Irish Executive. The plight
:57:05. > :57:07.of corporation tax seems to have been pulled away with the
:57:08. > :57:14.Chancellor's announcement he was going to lower the rate across the
:57:15. > :57:19.UK? Is that a blow for Northern Ireland? Now, it is a big plus I
:57:20. > :57:23.think because the advantages generated by the 12.5% rate the
:57:24. > :57:27.Executive wants to deliver is not necessarily addition in relation to
:57:28. > :57:31.the rest of the country, in Great Britain, it is actually to enable
:57:32. > :57:35.Northern Ireland to compete on a level playing field, complete with a
:57:36. > :57:40.lower corporation tax rates out of the border, but also with countries
:57:41. > :57:45.around the world. Actually there is an advantage in the idea put forward
:57:46. > :57:50.by the Chancellor of reducing the UK Main rate, because it makes 12.5%
:57:51. > :57:50.for Northern Ireland is more affordable for the Executive to
:57:51. > :57:52.deliver. Let's hear what Sam
:57:53. > :58:04.and Paul make of that. The Secretary of State saying this
:58:05. > :58:08.would be good for the Northern Ireland economy. Do you buy that?
:58:09. > :58:13.Know, and I don't accept her argument that we don't need to have
:58:14. > :58:17.a hard border. We are already seeing a lot of investment, we are
:58:18. > :58:23.releasing questions over the future of the US investment conference, and
:58:24. > :58:25.I'm hearing people in business expressing unhappiness about the
:58:26. > :58:31.difficulty in planning future investment programmes.
:58:32. > :58:33.The Secretary of State says George Osborne's plans to reduce
:58:34. > :58:36.the UK's main rate of Corporation Tax is good news
:58:37. > :58:45.I understand what she's saying, it does make it more affordable, but I
:58:46. > :58:53.can't say that Sinn Fein will agree to going down to a 10% weight, and
:58:54. > :58:57.with a 12.5% rate, than actually what is the real benefit going to
:58:58. > :59:07.Northern Ireland when you by getting a 1.5 or 2.5 advantage of Great
:59:08. > :59:11.Britain, it doesn't make sense. I've got a lot of sympathy, purely
:59:12. > :59:15.because I think some of the commentary around this is a bit
:59:16. > :59:22.pedantic. Arlene Foster is not at all rolling out North-South
:59:23. > :59:25.cooperation, she said that clearly has to be North-South corporation,
:59:26. > :59:28.it is down to what for -- form that takes.
:59:29. > :59:30.Thanks both - and let's just pause and take a look back
:59:31. > :59:36.at the political week in 60 seconds, with Stephen Walker.
:59:37. > :59:43.The idea of an all Ireland forum after the Brexit vote failed to get
:59:44. > :59:47.DUP support. It wasn't discussed with me at any stage over the
:59:48. > :59:53.weekend, or indeed before. And it wasn't discussed today. But one
:59:54. > :59:58.cross-border plan on children's health care they get the go-ahead.
:59:59. > :00:02.It's going to be brought in over the next five years, so by the end of
:00:03. > :00:07.next year all urgent cases will come to Dublin, and by the end of 2018,
:00:08. > :00:16.all cases will. There were married critical voices of the Chilcot.
:00:17. > :00:22.Yellow macro -- the Chilcot Report. It is a damning indictment of Tony
:00:23. > :00:27.Blair. The economy minister promised a smooth transition out of the EU.
:00:28. > :00:33.There will be no crash landing. But that didn't stop one investment
:00:34. > :00:40.conference being called off. You macro it has been postponed directly
:00:41. > :00:41.as a result of the Brexit vote. -- it has been postponed directly as a
:00:42. > :00:43.result of the Brexit vote. And Sam and Paul are
:00:44. > :00:46.with me for a final word. You were at the meeting
:00:47. > :00:49.when Martin McGuinness announced that a US investment conference
:00:50. > :00:51.planned for Belfast and Derry for October has been postponed
:00:52. > :01:01.indefinitely because of Brexit. The Secretary of State says that is
:01:02. > :01:08.not the reason. How big a blow is that? Basically Northern Ireland is
:01:09. > :01:12.far too dependent on foreign direct investment coming in, and if we can
:01:13. > :01:15.get investors to even look at Northern Ireland, in particular at
:01:16. > :01:20.Derrey, it really does show the damage inflicted by the Brexit
:01:21. > :01:23.position. The Secretary of State would say we can now buy into the
:01:24. > :01:28.bigger global platform will be on not just looking at a shrinking
:01:29. > :01:32.European market. Where is the evidence of that? It is simply
:01:33. > :01:35.another promise that has no obvious foundation, and that was the problem
:01:36. > :01:39.the whole way through, that actually we didn't know what the outcome of
:01:40. > :01:45.the Brexit campaign was going to be. And we still do not. Sam, there's an
:01:46. > :01:49.awful lot happening in Northern Ireland, the adjustment --
:01:50. > :01:53.adjustment with Brexit as it affects Northern Ireland specifically, and
:01:54. > :01:55.it's all against this background of febrile developments both within the
:01:56. > :02:02.Tories and within Labour at Westminster. And also it should be
:02:03. > :02:06.noted down south where Ender Kenny is under increasing pressure and is
:02:07. > :02:10.no guarantee he will still be in post next year. I think there is a
:02:11. > :02:14.great deal of political instability at the moment, and that is going to
:02:15. > :02:18.feed into this, but the business stuff is more immediate. Firms
:02:19. > :02:22.pulling out of his best when conferences, that of sort stuff, but
:02:23. > :02:23.is more alarming because there will be some sort of Government whether
:02:24. > :02:30.we like it or not very soon. Now back to Andrew in London.
:02:31. > :02:33.for London will look after the franchise in a few years' time.
:02:34. > :02:45.And with that, it's back to you, Andrew.
:02:46. > :02:53.So, will Angela Eagle succeed in replacing Jeremy Corbyn? And our
:02:54. > :02:57.senior Tories discussing plans for a centre ground party with the Lib
:02:58. > :02:58.Dems? Or questions for the week ahead.
:02:59. > :03:05.And joining us is the leader of the Liberal Democrats, Tim Farron.
:03:06. > :03:12.Welcome back. Will the Liberal Democrats campaign to rejoin the EU,
:03:13. > :03:18.come the next general election? We have to see what am I of the land
:03:19. > :03:25.will be. It could be October, it could be made 2020. But just like
:03:26. > :03:29.every other Liberal leader since 1955, I believe, I will have in my
:03:30. > :03:33.manifesto a question that there are a commitment that Britain is better
:03:34. > :03:38.off at the heart of Europe. Chris Grayling said to us this morning
:03:39. > :03:43.that he thinks he will be -- we will be out by the next election. If it
:03:44. > :03:48.is October, all bets are off, but if the parliament goes its term and we
:03:49. > :03:53.are out of the EU and into the 2020 election, would you like your party
:03:54. > :03:57.to have a commitment to rejoin? I want to be part of Europe and I
:03:58. > :04:01.would like to be part of the European Union. If you had asked the
:04:02. > :04:04.12 months ago, I would not have predicted that we would have left
:04:05. > :04:08.the EU. I would not have predicted that Jeremy Corbyn would lead the
:04:09. > :04:13.Labour Party or that David Cameron would have resigned. In four years'
:04:14. > :04:17.time, the lie of the land could be very different. But I am trying to
:04:18. > :04:21.work out if you feel so strongly about it, will you accept the
:04:22. > :04:27.referendum result, or will you try to get us back into the EU? I accept
:04:28. > :04:31.the referendum result. At the moment, the trajectory is towards
:04:32. > :04:35.Brexit and we have to accept that. I have no time for MPs who say we
:04:36. > :04:39.should be undoing the result. That does not mean I give up my campaign
:04:40. > :04:43.for Britain to be in the EU. As has been said by others, you have an
:04:44. > :04:49.election, and if you lose, you accept it, but you don't give up
:04:50. > :04:53.your principles. So I hope it will remain in the EU and I hope it will
:04:54. > :04:59.be the choice of electors if that is the case. Politicians must not force
:05:00. > :05:04.that on people. But didn't we just vote to come out? The 52% were very
:05:05. > :05:08.clear over what they voted against. That was all they were asked to do.
:05:09. > :05:13.They were not asked to vote for one of the five or six potential exit
:05:14. > :05:17.strategies, whether it be for access to the single market, some level of
:05:18. > :05:21.free movement, or whether it is the almost North Korea option but a
:05:22. > :05:24.handful of people prefer the UK to have. It seems to me to be right
:05:25. > :05:30.that the British people, before we leave the EU, are given the choice
:05:31. > :05:35.as to what they want. So you want a referendum on the terms of
:05:36. > :05:40.departure? Well, nobody has voted for what comes next. People voted to
:05:41. > :05:43.leave the EU, but it seems right to me that having made the choice two
:05:44. > :05:49.weeks ago, the British people should also be allowed to choose what is
:05:50. > :05:53.the next step. That sounds like a referendum on the terms to me. Which
:05:54. > :05:59.I am not in favour of, because we have seen that people are busy. We
:06:00. > :06:03.have representative democracy for a reason, and some decisions are
:06:04. > :06:07.better thrashed out by people elected by voters to do that, rather
:06:08. > :06:12.than putting everything to a referendum. But Tim has a point.
:06:13. > :06:16.There is no problem with people campaigning for another referendum.
:06:17. > :06:22.In 1975, we had a referendum and it wasn't like all the anti-Europeans
:06:23. > :06:27.accepted the decision. They carried on campaigning for another 40 years.
:06:28. > :06:34.So it could be another 40 years before he gets another referendum.
:06:35. > :06:38.He is a young lad. Who knows? I would be about Gladstone's age by
:06:39. > :06:42.them. I agree with you in one sense that we don't want to go to the
:06:43. > :06:47.public with a referendum on every issue. The problem is that this
:06:48. > :06:50.government, in a chaotic way, has established that principle, which
:06:51. > :06:57.means that it would be wrong and anti-democratic for the MPs to then
:06:58. > :07:03.overturn what the electorate have done. That means that in terms of
:07:04. > :07:09.endorsing what happens next, and the 52% may have 52 the ideas of what
:07:10. > :07:15.exit looks like. That is fine, but Britain needs to choose what happens
:07:16. > :07:24.next. And they need to choose whether they prefer the status quo
:07:25. > :07:27.before Article 50 is invoked. Oh! Well, I think there was a real
:07:28. > :07:33.danger that MPs will, over a course of time, basically diluted Brexit
:07:34. > :07:36.and not deliver it properly. I thought it was interesting that
:07:37. > :07:41.people like Chris Grayling or arguing that Brexit is safer in the
:07:42. > :07:47.hands of Theresa May. Why is he during that when she was a Remainer?
:07:48. > :07:52.Because he says she has the backing of the majority of Tory MPs. Of
:07:53. > :07:57.course, in Parliament, most MPs are for Remain, and he says that only
:07:58. > :08:01.Theresa May can push through Brexit, which is counterintuitive, but makes
:08:02. > :08:05.sense when you think about it. Surely no government can agree to a
:08:06. > :08:09.referendum on the terms, because Europe would then say, so you need
:08:10. > :08:18.another vote? You are getting nothing. It would be like Congress
:08:19. > :08:23.announcing a referendum on a trade deal with another country. Why would
:08:24. > :08:25.that country do a deal when it is subject to domestic politics? So I
:08:26. > :08:29.think another referendum is unlikely, but I fear that the
:08:30. > :08:35.entirety of the next parliament will be taken up by the process of
:08:36. > :08:38.extrication. What did you say about article 50? If the legal
:08:39. > :08:42.interpretation that once one has invoked article 50, the matter is
:08:43. > :08:45.out of our hands, that is like jumping out of a plane without being
:08:46. > :08:49.sure whether you have a parachute. It seems to me that the bridge
:08:50. > :08:55.people should be allowed to check the safety of the parachute. That
:08:56. > :09:01.means, do we know what we are going into? If we decide collectively that
:09:02. > :09:06.we should be in the single market, for example, as many Brexiteers
:09:07. > :09:08.believe, then for us to press the button to leave the European Union
:09:09. > :09:13.without any guarantee that we would have that access would be foolish to
:09:14. > :09:19.stop are you saying we need another referendum before we press article
:09:20. > :09:23.50? We will need to check the legal advice, but I would not want us to
:09:24. > :09:27.be in a legal position where there is no turning back. But the issue is
:09:28. > :09:33.whether you need a vote of parliament to trigger article 50. To
:09:34. > :09:36.my mind, that is a detail. What I am really bothered about is whether the
:09:37. > :09:40.UK puts us in a position where there is no turning back and we have to
:09:41. > :09:46.settle for whatever bad deal we might get. But once you trigger
:09:47. > :09:50.article 50, that is it. The problem is, if you have done that, my
:09:51. > :09:53.understanding is that there is and then an opportunity for us to
:09:54. > :09:58.negotiate. We get what we are given, and it might be a really bad deal.
:09:59. > :10:03.My job is to make sure to get a good deal. The discussions now might all
:10:04. > :10:07.be over exit over the next few years. It is going to move on from
:10:08. > :10:12.being stuffed for the political classes, as people experience the
:10:13. > :10:16.fact that they have less to spend on holiday, that their savings are
:10:17. > :10:23.worth less. People will begin to realise the reality. Let me ask you
:10:24. > :10:26.this. There is an indication from the Sunday Times... Do you want to
:10:27. > :10:33.rebrand your party? Do you think that the term Liberal Democrats is
:10:34. > :10:37.tarnished? No, I don't. Our party has nearly doubled in size since the
:10:38. > :10:41.last election 13 months ago, and it has gone up by another 16,000 in the
:10:42. > :10:46.last fortnight. There is a movement among young people joining the
:10:47. > :10:54.Liberal Democrats, who see the chaos in the other two parties. How about
:10:55. > :10:59.the Labour Democrats? If you look at the other parties, we are now the
:11:00. > :11:05.marketplace where progressives and moderates from other parties can
:11:06. > :11:09.safely gather. We are open to talking to others in other parties.
:11:10. > :11:14.One of the good things from the referendum, not the result, was the
:11:15. > :11:17.fact that many of us shared platforms with people who we
:11:18. > :11:24.discovered we agree with more than just on the European Union. Have you
:11:25. > :11:32.got any Tories in your cross hairs? I have talked to lots of people.
:11:33. > :11:39.Answer the question. That would not be fair. I have talked to loss of
:11:40. > :11:46.people. Politics is really fluid. Do you buy this realignment? For it to
:11:47. > :11:51.happen, the Lib Dems would need both Andrea Leadsom to be the Tory leader
:11:52. > :11:55.and Jeremy Corbyn to stay as the Labour leader. It requires a lot to
:11:56. > :11:58.happen. If Leadsom did become Tory leader and Jeremy Corbyn were
:11:59. > :12:01.strengthened as Labour leader, you have not just a centrist party
:12:02. > :12:06.potentially, but a very big centrist party. What I would issue as a
:12:07. > :12:10.warning is that that party would still be subject to all the
:12:11. > :12:13.squabbles that any existing party suffers. Were I and Tim to join, for
:12:14. > :12:18.example, there would be a debate about what centrism means. Is it
:12:19. > :12:22.social democracy or something more economically liberal? Does it mean
:12:23. > :12:26.commitment to the European Union, or honouring the referendum and getting
:12:27. > :12:29.out? It would be no less prone to internal disagreements. Dubai the
:12:30. > :12:35.story this morning that there were 20 Tory MPs threatening to leave if
:12:36. > :12:40.Andrea Leadsom should become leader? I didn't buy that at all. It sounded
:12:41. > :12:45.like 20 years he fits to me. In relation to a realignment, it is
:12:46. > :12:48.interesting, what will happen to the UK Independence Party. Tim said the
:12:49. > :12:53.Lib Dems world where the marketplace is, but think about all those people
:12:54. > :12:58.that voted, for a righty of reasons, for Brexit, and what happens to
:12:59. > :13:01.Ukip. I think we will see that rebranding under a different name is
:13:02. > :13:05.some kind of people's party, and that could pick up a lot of Lib Dem
:13:06. > :13:12.and Labour votes. Is Tim Farron right to be confident with the
:13:13. > :13:17.position the Lib Dems are in? Last man standing, possibly the token
:13:18. > :13:20.male leader after all this. The joy for the Lib Dems is that they have a
:13:21. > :13:25.clear position and they are most gunning to be a majority party. They
:13:26. > :13:30.can have a focus that other parties don't have. We shall see. We have
:13:31. > :13:34.run out of time. The Daily Politics is back at midday on BBC Two all
:13:35. > :13:40.this week. I will be back here on Sunday on BBC One at 11 o'clock.
:13:41. > :13:51.Remember, if it's Sunday, it is the Sunday Politics.