:00:35. > :00:39.It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.
:00:40. > :00:44.David Davis tells MPs to leave the Brexit bill untouched,
:00:45. > :00:46.ahead of a week which could see Britain begin the process
:00:47. > :00:51.We'll talk to a Tory rebel and Ukip's Nigel Farage.
:00:52. > :00:54.Phillip Hammond's first budget hit the rocks thanks to a tax rise
:00:55. > :01:02.But how should we tax those who work for themselves?
:01:03. > :01:04.And remember Donald Trump's claim that Barack Obama had ordered
:01:05. > :01:12.We'll talk to the former Tory MP who set the whole story rolling.
:01:13. > :01:15.And in Northern Ireland - as Gerry Adams says a deal can
:01:16. > :01:17.be done at Stormont, I'll be asking a
:01:18. > :01:20.Plus a controversial budget at Westminster -
:01:21. > :01:32.And joining me for all of that, three self-employed journalists
:01:33. > :01:36.who definitely don't deserve a tax break.
:01:37. > :01:37.It's Steve Richards, Julia Hartley-Brewer
:01:38. > :01:41.They'll be tweeting throughout the programme with all the carefree
:01:42. > :01:49.abandon of Katie Hopkins before a libel trial.
:01:50. > :01:51.BBC lawyers have suddenly got nervous!
:01:52. > :01:54.So first today, the government is gearing up to trigger Article 50,
:01:55. > :01:57.perhaps in the next 48 hours, and start negotiating Britain's
:01:58. > :02:00.Much has been written about the prospect of the Commons
:02:01. > :02:02.getting a "meaningful vote" on the deal Britain negotiates.
:02:03. > :02:05.Brexit Secretary David Davis was on the Andrew Marr programme
:02:06. > :02:07.earlier this morning and he was asked what happens
:02:08. > :02:17.Well, that is what is called the most favoured nation status deal
:02:18. > :02:22.There we go out, as it were, on WTO rules.
:02:23. > :02:25.That is why of course we do the contingency planning, to make
:02:26. > :02:33.The British people decided on June the 23rd last year
:02:34. > :02:38.My job, and the job of the government, is to make
:02:39. > :02:48.the terms on which that happens as beneficial as possible.
:02:49. > :02:56.There we have it, clearly, either Parliament votes for the deal when
:02:57. > :02:59.it is done or it out on World Trade Organisation rules. That's what the
:03:00. > :03:01.government means by a meaningful vote.
:03:02. > :03:08.I think we get over obsessed about whether there will be a legal right
:03:09. > :03:11.for Parliament to have a vote. If there is no deal or a bad deal, I
:03:12. > :03:14.think it would be politically impossible for the government to
:03:15. > :03:18.reject Parliament's desire for a vote because the atmosphere of
:03:19. > :03:20.politics will be completely different by then. I take David
:03:21. > :03:26.Davies seriously. Within Whitehall he has acquired a reputation as
:03:27. > :03:30.being the most conscientious and details sadly... And well briefed.
:03:31. > :03:33.Absolutely and well travelled in terms of European capitals of the
:03:34. > :03:36.three Brexit ministers. It is quite telling he said what he did and it
:03:37. > :03:41.is quite telling that within cabinet, two weeks ago he was
:03:42. > :03:45.floating the idea of no deal at all. Being if not the central estimate
:03:46. > :03:49.than a completely plausible eventuality. It is interesting. I
:03:50. > :03:54.would suggest the prospect of no deal is moving up the agenda. It is
:03:55. > :03:59.still less likely than more likely to happen. But it's no longer a kind
:04:00. > :04:03.of long tail way out there in the distance. Planning for no deal is
:04:04. > :04:05.the same as having contents insurance or travel insurance, plan
:04:06. > :04:09.for the worse case scenarios are prepared it happens. Even the worst
:04:10. > :04:14.case scenario, it's not that bad. Think of the Jeep 20, apart from the
:04:15. > :04:19.EU, four members of the G20 economies are successful members of
:04:20. > :04:22.the EU. The rest aren't and don't have trade deals but somehow these
:04:23. > :04:27.countries are prospering. They are growing at a higher rate. You are
:04:28. > :04:30.not frightened? Not remotely. We are obsessed with what we get from the
:04:31. > :04:34.EU and the key thing we get from leaving the EU is not the deal but
:04:35. > :04:37.the other deals we can finally make with other trading partners. They
:04:38. > :04:41.have higher growth than virtually every other EU country apart from
:04:42. > :04:45.Germany. It is sensible as a negotiating position for the
:04:46. > :04:49.government to say if there is no deal, we will accept there is no
:04:50. > :04:53.deal. We're not frightened of no deal. It was clear from what David
:04:54. > :04:56.Davies was saying that there will be a vote in parliament at the end of
:04:57. > :05:01.the process but there won't be a third option to send the government
:05:02. > :05:06.back to try to get a better deal. It is either the deal or we leave
:05:07. > :05:10.without a deal. In reality, that third option will be there. We don't
:05:11. > :05:15.know yet whether there will be a majority for the deal if they get
:05:16. > :05:20.one. What we do know now is that there isn't a majority in the
:05:21. > :05:25.Commons for no deal. Labour MPs are absolutely clear that no deal is
:05:26. > :05:29.worth then a bad deal. I've heard enough Tory MPs say the same thing.
:05:30. > :05:37.But they wouldn't get no deal through. When it comes to this vote,
:05:38. > :05:41.if whatever deal is rejected, there will then be, one way or another,
:05:42. > :05:45.the third option raised of go back again. But who gets to decide what
:05:46. > :05:49.is a bad deal? The British people will have a different idea than the
:05:50. > :05:56.two thirds of the Remain supporting MPs in the Commons. In terms of the
:05:57. > :06:00.vote, the Commons. Surely, if the Commons, which is what matters here,
:06:01. > :06:06.if the Commons were to vote against the deal as negotiated by the
:06:07. > :06:10.government, surely that would trigger a general election? If the
:06:11. > :06:13.government had recommended the deal, surely the government would then, if
:06:14. > :06:19.it still felt strongly about the deal, if the other 27 had said,
:06:20. > :06:23.we're not negotiating, extending it, it would in effect become a second
:06:24. > :06:26.referendum on the deal. In effect it would be a no-confidence vote in the
:06:27. > :06:29.government. You've got to assume that unless something massively
:06:30. > :06:33.changes in the opposition before then, the government would feel
:06:34. > :06:38.fairly confident about a general election on those terms. Unless the
:06:39. > :06:42.deal is hideously bad and obviously basso every vote in the country...
:06:43. > :06:45.The prior minister said if it is that bad she would have rather no
:06:46. > :06:51.deal. So that eventuality arrives. -- the Prime Minister has said. Not
:06:52. > :06:56.a second referendum general election in two years' time. Don't put any
:06:57. > :06:59.holidays for! LAUGHTER -- don't look any.
:07:00. > :07:01.So the Brexit bill looks likely to clear Parliament this week.
:07:02. > :07:05.That depends on the number of Conservative MPs who are prepared
:07:06. > :07:07.to vote against their government on two key issues.
:07:08. > :07:11.Theresa May could be in negotiations with our European
:07:12. > :07:13.partners within days, but there may be some
:07:14. > :07:15.wheeler-dealings she has to do with her own MPs, too.
:07:16. > :07:19.Cast your mind back to the beginning of month.
:07:20. > :07:21.The bill to trigger Article 50 passed comfortably
:07:22. > :07:30.But three Conservatives voted for Labour's amendments to ensure
:07:31. > :07:34.the rights of EU citizens already in the UK.
:07:35. > :07:37.Seven Tory MPs voted to force the government to give Parliament
:07:38. > :07:42.a say on the deal struck with the EU before it's finalised.
:07:43. > :07:46.But remember those numbers, they're important.
:07:47. > :07:50.On the issue of a meaningful vote on a deal, I'm told there might have
:07:51. > :07:52.been more rebels had it not been for this assurance from
:07:53. > :07:57.I can confirm that the government will bring forward a motion
:07:58. > :08:00.on the final agreement to be approved by both Houses
:08:01. > :08:04.And we expect, and intend, that this will happen before
:08:05. > :08:11.the European Parliament debates and votes on the final agreement.
:08:12. > :08:17.When the government was criticised for reeling back
:08:18. > :08:20.from when and what it would offer a vote on.
:08:21. > :08:23.The bill then moved into the Lords, where peers passed it
:08:24. > :08:31.And the second, that Parliament be given a meaningful vote on the terms
:08:32. > :08:34.of the deal or indeed a vote in the event of there
:08:35. > :08:38.The so-called Brexit bill will return to Commons
:08:39. > :08:42.Ministers insist that both amendments would weaken
:08:43. > :08:45.the government's negotiating hand and are seeking to overturn them.
:08:46. > :08:50.But, as ever, politics is a numbers game.
:08:51. > :08:52.Theresa May has a working majority of 17.
:08:53. > :08:57.On Brexit, though, it's probably higher.
:08:58. > :08:59.At least six Labour MPs generally vote with
:09:00. > :09:03.Plus, eight DUP MPs, two from the Ulster Unionist party
:09:04. > :09:09.If all Conservatives vote with the government as well,
:09:10. > :09:15.Therefore, 26 Conservative rebels are needed for the government to be
:09:16. > :09:22.So, are there rough waters ahead for Theresa May?
:09:23. > :09:24.What numbers are we looking at, in terms of a potential rebellion?
:09:25. > :09:27.I think we're looking at a large number of people who are interested
:09:28. > :09:30.This building is a really important building.
:09:31. > :09:32.It's symbolic of a huge amount of history.
:09:33. > :09:36.And for it not to be involved in this momentous time would,
:09:37. > :09:43.But he says a clear verbal statement from the government on a meaningful
:09:44. > :09:49.vote on any deal would be enough to get most Tory MPs onside.
:09:50. > :09:51.It was already said about David Jones.
:09:52. > :09:53.It's slightly unravelled a little bit during
:09:54. > :09:58.I think this is an opportunity to really get that clarity
:09:59. > :10:01.through so that we can all vote for Article 50 and get
:10:02. > :10:05.We've have spoken to several Tory MPs who say they are minded to vote
:10:06. > :10:09.One said the situation was sad and depressing.
:10:10. > :10:12.The other said that the whips must be worried because they don't
:10:13. > :10:19.A minister told me Downing Street was looking again at the possibility
:10:20. > :10:23.of offering a vote in the event of no deal being reached.
:10:24. > :10:25.But that its position was unlikely to change.
:10:26. > :10:27.And, anyway, government sources have told the Sunday Politics they're not
:10:28. > :10:35.That those Tory MPs who didn't back either amendment the first time
:10:36. > :10:38.round would look silly if they did, this time.
:10:39. > :10:41.It would have to be a pretty hefty lot of people changing their minds
:10:42. > :10:44.about things that have already been discussed in quite a lot of detail,
:10:45. > :10:48.last time it was in the Commons, for things to be reversed this time.
:10:49. > :10:52.There's no doubt that a number of Tory MPs are very concerned.
:10:53. > :10:54.Labour are pessimistic about the chances of enough Tory
:10:55. > :10:57.rebels backing either of the amendments in the Commons.
:10:58. > :11:00.The important thing, I think, is to focus on the fact
:11:01. > :11:03.that this is the last chance to have a say on this.
:11:04. > :11:07.If they're going to vote with us, Monday is the time to do it.
:11:08. > :11:09.Assuming the bill does pass the Commons unamended,
:11:10. > :11:12.it will go back to the Lord's on Monday night where Labour peers
:11:13. > :11:15.have already indicated they won't block it again.
:11:16. > :11:19.It means that the Brexit bill would become law and Theresa May
:11:20. > :11:22.would be free to trigger Article 50 within days.
:11:23. > :11:24.Her own deadline was the end of this month.
:11:25. > :11:31.But one minister told me there were advantages to doing it early.
:11:32. > :11:34.We're joined now from Nottingham by the Conservative MP Anna Soubry.
:11:35. > :11:36.She's previously voted against the government on the question
:11:37. > :11:43.of whether Parliament should have a final say over the EU deal.
:11:44. > :11:49.Anna Soubry, I think it was clear this morning from David Davies that
:11:50. > :11:52.what he means by meaningful vote is not what you mean by a meaningful
:11:53. > :11:57.vote. He thinks the choice for Parliament would be to either vote
:11:58. > :12:00.for the deal and if Parliament doesn't, we leave on World Trade
:12:01. > :12:07.Organisation rules, on a bare-bones structure. In the end, will he
:12:08. > :12:11.accept that in the Commons tomorrow? No, because my problem and I don't
:12:12. > :12:15.think it is a problem, but my problem, the government's problem is
:12:16. > :12:19.that what I want is then to answer this question. What happens in the
:12:20. > :12:23.event of their not being any deal? David Davies made it very clear that
:12:24. > :12:28.in the event of there being no deal, Parliament would have no say. It
:12:29. > :12:31.means through your elected representatives, the people of this
:12:32. > :12:36.country would have no say on what happens if the government doesn't
:12:37. > :12:39.get a deal. I think the request that Parliament should have a say on
:12:40. > :12:44.Parliamentary sovereignty, is perfectly reasonable. That is what I
:12:45. > :12:50.want David to say. If he says that, I won't be rebelling. If he does...
:12:51. > :12:55.They have refused to say that. Sorry. If he continues to say what
:12:56. > :13:01.he said the BBC this morning, which means that the vote will be either
:13:02. > :13:07.to accept the as negotiated or to leave on WTO rules, will you rebel
:13:08. > :13:11.on that question but no, no, sorry, if there's a deal, Parliament will
:13:12. > :13:15.have a say. So that's fine. And we will see what the deal is and we
:13:16. > :13:19.will look at the options two years down the road. When who knows
:13:20. > :13:23.what'll happen in our economy and world economy. That is one matter
:13:24. > :13:26.which I am content on. The Prime Minister, a woman of her word has
:13:27. > :13:33.said that in the event of a deal, Parliament will vote on any deal. I
:13:34. > :13:37.don't difficulty. To clarify, I will come onto that. These are important
:13:38. > :13:40.matters. I want to clarify, not argue with you. You are content that
:13:41. > :13:44.if there is a deal, we will come under no deal in a second, but if
:13:45. > :13:51.there is a deal, you are content with the choice of being able to
:13:52. > :13:53.vote for that deal or leaving on WTO terms? No, you're speculating as to
:13:54. > :13:59.what might happen in two years' time. What the options might be.
:14:00. > :14:02.Personally I find it inconceivable that the government will come back
:14:03. > :14:06.with a rubbish deal. They will either come back with a good deal,
:14:07. > :14:10.which I won't have a problem with or they will come back with no deal. To
:14:11. > :14:14.speculate about coming back with a deal, there is a variety of options.
:14:15. > :14:18.I understand that that is what the Lord amendments are about. They are
:14:19. > :14:26.about a vote at the end of the process. Do forgive me, the Lords
:14:27. > :14:28.amendment is not the same that I've voted for in Parliament. What we
:14:29. > :14:31.call the Chris Leslie amendment, which was talking about whatever the
:14:32. > :14:34.agreement is, whatever happens at the end of the negotiations,
:14:35. > :14:37.Parliament will have a vote. Parliament will have a say. The
:14:38. > :14:43.Lords amendment is a bit more technical. It is the principle of no
:14:44. > :14:47.deal that is agitating us. Let's clarify on this. They are
:14:48. > :14:51.complicated matters. What do you want the government to say? What do
:14:52. > :14:56.you want David Davis to say tomorrow on what should the Parliamentary
:14:57. > :15:00.process should be if there is no deal? Quite. I want a commitment
:15:01. > :15:03.from him that in the event of no deal, it will come into Parliament
:15:04. > :15:11.and Parliament will determine what happens next. It could be that in
:15:12. > :15:14.the event of no deal, the best thing is for us to jump off the cliff into
:15:15. > :15:18.WTO tariff is. I find it unlikely but that might be the reality. There
:15:19. > :15:23.might be other alternatives. Most importantly, including saying to the
:15:24. > :15:25.government, go back, carry on. The question that everybody has to ask
:15:26. > :15:36.is, why won't the government give My fear is what this is about is
:15:37. > :15:41.asked deliberately, not the Prime Minister, but others deliberately
:15:42. > :15:46.ensuring we have no deal and no deal pretty soon and in that event, we
:15:47. > :15:50.jumped off the cliff onto WTO tariffs and nobody in this country
:15:51. > :15:57.and the people of this country do not have a say. My constituents did
:15:58. > :16:01.not vote for hard Brexit. You do not want the government to
:16:02. > :16:07.have the ability if there is no deal to automatically fall back on the
:16:08. > :16:12.WTO rules? Quite. It is as simple as that. We are now speculating about
:16:13. > :16:18.what will happen in two years. I want to find out what happens
:16:19. > :16:22.tomorrow. What will you do if you don't get that assurance? I will
:16:23. > :16:27.either abstain, or I will vote to keep this amendment within the Bill.
:16:28. > :16:32.I will either vote against my government, which I do not do
:16:33. > :16:35.likely, I have never voted against my government until the Chris Leslie
:16:36. > :16:39.clause when the Bill was going through, or I will abstain, which
:16:40. > :16:43.has pretty much the same effect because it comes into the Commons
:16:44. > :16:49.with both amendments so you have positively to vote to take the map.
:16:50. > :16:54.Can you give us an idea of how many like-minded conservative colleagues
:16:55. > :17:00.there are. I genuinely do not know. You must talk to each other. I do
:17:01. > :17:07.not talk to every member of my party. You know people who are
:17:08. > :17:11.like-minded. I do. I am not doing numbers games. I know you want that
:17:12. > :17:17.but I genuinely do not know the figure. I think this is an
:17:18. > :17:23.uncomfortable truth. People have to understand what has happened in our
:17:24. > :17:27.country, two particular newspapers, creating an atmosphere and setting
:17:28. > :17:30.an agenda and I think many people are rather concerned, some
:17:31. > :17:36.frightened, to put their head over the parapet. There are many millions
:17:37. > :17:41.of people who feel totally excluded from this process. Many of them
:17:42. > :17:44.voted to remain. And they have lost their voice. We have covered the
:17:45. > :17:45.ground I wanted to. We're joined now by the Ukip MEP
:17:46. > :17:58.and former leader Nigel Farage. Article 50 triggered, we are leaving
:17:59. > :18:02.the EU, the single market and the customs union. What is left you to
:18:03. > :18:06.complain about? All of that will happen and hopefully we will get the
:18:07. > :18:10.triggered this week which is good news. What worries me a little I'm
:18:11. > :18:15.not sure the government recognises how strong their handers. At the
:18:16. > :18:18.summit in Brussels, the word in the corridors is that we are prepared to
:18:19. > :18:22.give away fishing waters as a bargaining chip and the worry is
:18:23. > :18:27.what deal we get. Are we leaving, yes I am pleased about that. You are
:18:28. > :18:32.under relevant voice in the deal because the deal will be voted on in
:18:33. > :18:36.Parliament and you have one MP. You are missing the point, the real vote
:18:37. > :18:40.in parliament is not in London but Strasbourg. This is perhaps the
:18:41. > :18:45.biggest obstacle the British Government faces. Not what happens
:18:46. > :18:50.in the Commons that the end of the two years, the European Parliament
:18:51. > :18:54.could veto the deal. What that means is people need to adopt a different
:18:55. > :18:57.approach. We do not need to be lobbying in the corridors of
:18:58. > :19:03.Brussels to get a good deal, we need is a country to be out there talking
:19:04. > :19:07.to the German car workers and Belgian chocolate makers, putting as
:19:08. > :19:11.much pressure as we can on politicians from across Europe to
:19:12. > :19:16.come to a sensible arrangement. It is in their interests more than
:19:17. > :19:23.ours. In what way is the vision of Brexit set out by David Davis any
:19:24. > :19:26.different from your own? I am delighted there are people now
:19:27. > :19:34.adopting the position I argued for many years. Good. But now... Like
:19:35. > :19:40.Douglas Carswell, he said he found David Davis' performers this morning
:19:41. > :19:45.reassuring. It is. And just as when Theresa May was Home Secretary every
:19:46. > :19:48.performance she gave was hugely reassuring. She was seen to be a
:19:49. > :19:55.heroine after her conference speeches and then did not deliver. I
:19:56. > :20:01.am concerned that even before we start we are making concessions. You
:20:02. > :20:04.described in the EU's divorce bill demands, 60 billion euros is floated
:20:05. > :20:11.around. You said it is laughable and I understand that. Do you maintain
:20:12. > :20:19.that we will not have to pay a penny to leave? It is nine months since we
:20:20. > :20:25.voted exit and assuming the trigger of Article 50, we would have paid 30
:20:26. > :20:28.billion in since we had a vote. We are still members. But honestly, I
:20:29. > :20:33.do not think there is an appetite for us to pay a massive divorce
:20:34. > :20:40.Bill. There are assets also. Not a penny? There will be some ongoing
:20:41. > :20:46.commitments, but the numbers talked about our 50, ?60 billion, they are
:20:47. > :20:51.frankly laughable. I am trying to find out if you are prepared to
:20:52. > :20:56.accept some kind of exit cost, it may be nowhere near 60 billion. We
:20:57. > :20:59.have to do a net agreement, the government briefed about our share
:21:00. > :21:06.of the European Union investment bank. Would you accept a
:21:07. > :21:11.transitional arrangement, deal, five, ten billion, as part of the
:21:12. > :21:16.divorce settlement? We are painted net ?30 million every single day at
:21:17. > :21:21.the moment, ?10 billion plus every year. That is just our contribution.
:21:22. > :21:27.We are going to make a massive saving on this. What do you make of
:21:28. > :21:33.what Anna Soubry said, that if there is no deal, and it is being talked
:21:34. > :21:36.about more. Maybe the government managing expectations. There is an
:21:37. > :21:42.expectation we will have a deal, but if there is no deal, that the
:21:43. > :21:47.government cannot just go to WTO rules, but it has to have a vote in
:21:48. > :21:50.parliament? By the time we get to that there will be a general
:21:51. > :21:55.election coming down the tracks and I suspect that if at the end of the
:21:56. > :22:00.two-year process there is no deal and by the way, no deal is a lot
:22:01. > :22:04.better for the nation than where we currently are, because we freed of
:22:05. > :22:08.regulations and able to make our own deals in the world. I think what
:22:09. > :22:15.would happen, and if Parliament said it did not back, at the end of the
:22:16. > :22:21.negotiation a general election would happen quickly. According to reports
:22:22. > :22:27.this morning, one of your most senior aides has passed a dossier to
:22:28. > :22:31.police claiming Tories committed electoral fraud in Thanet South, the
:22:32. > :22:37.seat contested in the election. What evidence to you have? I read that in
:22:38. > :22:40.the newspapers as you have. I am not going to comment on it. Will you not
:22:41. > :22:47.aware of the contents of the dossier? I am not aware of the
:22:48. > :22:53.dossier. He was your election strategists. I am dubious as to
:22:54. > :22:58.whether this dossier exists at all. Perhaps the newspapers have got this
:22:59. > :23:06.wrong. Concerns about the downloading of data the took place
:23:07. > :23:12.in that constituency, there are. Allegedly, he has refuted it, was it
:23:13. > :23:18.done by your MP to give information to the Tories, do you have evidence
:23:19. > :23:25.about? We have evidence Mr Carswell downloaded information, we have no
:23:26. > :23:29.evidence what he did with it. It is not just your aide who has been
:23:30. > :23:35.making allegations against the Conservatives in Thanet South and
:23:36. > :23:42.other seats, if the evidence was to be substantial, and if it was to
:23:43. > :23:46.result in another by-election being called an Thanet South had to be
:23:47. > :23:51.fought again, would you be the Ukip candidate? I probably would. You
:23:52. > :23:57.probably would? Yes. Just probably? Just probably. It would be your
:23:58. > :24:00.eighth attempt. Winning seats in parliament under first past the post
:24:01. > :24:03.is not the only way to change politics in Britain and I would like
:24:04. > :24:09.to think I proved that. Let's go back to Anna Soubry. The implication
:24:10. > :24:13.of what we were saying on the panel at the start of the show and what
:24:14. > :24:19.Nigel Farage was saying there would be that if at the end of the process
:24:20. > :24:23.whatever the vote, if the government were to lose it, it would provoke a
:24:24. > :24:28.general election properly. I think that would be right. Let's get real.
:24:29. > :24:31.The government is not going to come to Parliament with anything other
:24:32. > :24:40.than something it believes is a good deal and if it rejected it, would be
:24:41. > :24:43.unlikely, there would be a de facto vote of no confidence and it would
:24:44. > :24:49.be within the fixed term Parliaments act and that be it. The problem is,
:24:50. > :24:54.more likely, because of the story put up about the 50 billion, 60
:24:55. > :24:58.billion and you look at the way things are flagged up that both the
:24:59. > :25:02.Prime Minister and Boris Johnson saying, we should be asking them for
:25:03. > :25:08.money back, I think the big fear and the fear I have is we will be
:25:09. > :25:13.crashing out in six months. You think we could leave as quickly as
:25:14. > :25:19.six months. Explain that. I think they will stoke up the demand from
:25:20. > :25:23.the EU for 50, 60 billion back and my real concern is that within six
:25:24. > :25:28.months, where we're not making much progress, maybe nine months, and
:25:29. > :25:32.people are getting increasingly fed up with the EU because they are told
:25:33. > :25:36.it wants unreasonable demands, and then the crash. I think what is
:25:37. > :25:41.happening is the government is putting in place scaffolding at the
:25:42. > :25:46.bottom of the cliff to break our fall when we come to fall off that
:25:47. > :25:51.cliff and I think many in government are preparing not for a two-year
:25:52. > :25:56.process, but six, to nine months, off the cliff, out we go. That is my
:25:57. > :26:01.fear. That is interesting. I have not heard that express before by
:26:02. > :26:08.someone in your position. I suspect you have made Nigel Farage's date.
:26:09. > :26:14.It is a lovely thought. I would say to Anna Soubry she is out of date
:26:15. > :26:17.with this. 40 years ago there was a good argument for joining the common
:26:18. > :26:22.market because tariffs around the world was so high. That has changed
:26:23. > :26:26.with the World Trade Organisation. We are leaving the EU and rejoining
:26:27. > :26:35.a great big world and it is exciting. She was giving an
:26:36. > :26:36.interesting perspective on what could happen in nine months rather
:26:37. > :26:40.than two years. I thank you both. It was Philip Hammond's first
:26:41. > :26:42.budget on Wednesday - billed as a steady-as-she-goes
:26:43. > :26:49.affair, but turned out to cause uproar after the Chancellor appeared
:26:50. > :26:51.to contradict a Tory manifesto commitment with an increase
:26:52. > :26:53.in national insurance contributions. The aim was to address what some see
:26:54. > :27:02.as an imbalance in the tax system, where employees pay
:27:03. > :27:04.more National Insurance The controversy centres
:27:05. > :27:07.on increasing the so-called class 4 rate for the self-employed who make
:27:08. > :27:10.a profit of more than ?8,060 a year. It will go up in stages
:27:11. > :27:17.from 9% to 11% in 2019. The changes mean that over one
:27:18. > :27:20.and a half million will pay on average ?240 a year
:27:21. > :27:25.more in contributions. Some Conservative MPs were unhappy,
:27:26. > :27:31.with even the Wales Minister saying: "I will apologise to every
:27:32. > :27:34.voter in Wales that read the Conservative manifesto
:27:35. > :27:35.in the 2015 election." The Sun labelled Philip
:27:36. > :27:41.Hammond "spite van man". The Daily Mail called the budget
:27:42. > :27:43."no laughing matter". By Thursday, Theresa May
:27:44. > :27:46.said the government One of the first things I did
:27:47. > :27:52.as Prime Minister was to commission Matthew Taylor to review the rights
:27:53. > :27:56.and protections that were available to self-employed workers
:27:57. > :27:59.and whether they should be enhanced. People will be able to look
:28:00. > :28:01.at the government paper when we produce it, showing
:28:02. > :28:04.all our changes, and take And, of course, the Chancellor will
:28:05. > :28:09.be speaking, as will his ministers, to MPs, businesspeople and others
:28:10. > :28:13.to listen to the concerns. Well, the man you heard mentioned
:28:14. > :28:15.there, Matthew Taylor, has the job of producing
:28:16. > :28:29.a report into the future Welcome. The Chancellor has decided
:28:30. > :28:33.the self-employed should pay almost the same in National Insurance, not
:28:34. > :28:38.the same but almost, as the employed will stop what is left of your
:28:39. > :28:41.commission? The commission has a broader frame of reference and we
:28:42. > :28:48.are interested in the quality of work in the economy at the heart of
:28:49. > :28:53.what I hope will be proposing is a set of shifts that will improve the
:28:54. > :28:57.quality of that work so we have an economy where all work is fair and
:28:58. > :29:00.decent and all jobs give people scope for development and
:29:01. > :29:09.fulfilment. The issue of taxes a small part. You will cover that? We
:29:10. > :29:11.will, because the tax system and employment regulation system drive
:29:12. > :29:17.particular behaviours in our labour market. You approve I think of the
:29:18. > :29:22.general direction of this policy of raising National Insurance on the
:29:23. > :29:28.self-employed. Taxing them in return perhaps for more state benefits. Why
:29:29. > :29:32.are so many others on the left against it from Tim Farron to John
:29:33. > :29:36.McDonnell? Tax rises are unpopular and it is the role of the opposition
:29:37. > :29:40.parties to make capital from unpopular tax rises. I think as tax
:29:41. > :29:44.rises go this is broadly progressive. There are self-employed
:29:45. > :29:49.people on low incomes and they will be better off. It is economic league
:29:50. > :29:52.rational because the reason for the difference in National Insurance --
:29:53. > :29:58.economically. It was to do with state entitlements. The government
:29:59. > :30:04.is consulting about paid parental leave. A series of governments have
:30:05. > :30:08.not been good about thinking about medium sustainability of the tax
:30:09. > :30:12.base. Self-employment is growing. But it is eroding the tax base. It
:30:13. > :30:19.is important to address those issues. A number of think tanks have
:30:20. > :30:24.said this is a progressive move. Yet, a number of left-wing
:30:25. > :30:30.politicians have been against it. And a number of Tories have said
:30:31. > :30:34.this is a progressive move and not a Tory government move, the balance of
:30:35. > :30:38.you will pay more tax, but you will get more state benefits is not a
:30:39. > :30:42.Tory approach to things. That a Tory approach will be you will pay less
:30:43. > :30:45.tax but entitled to fewer benefits as well.
:30:46. > :30:55.I preferred in and policies to politics -- I prefer policies. When
:30:56. > :30:59.people look at the policy and when they look the fact that there is no
:31:00. > :31:01.real historical basis for that big national insurance differential,
:31:02. > :31:06.they see it is a sensible policy. I don't have to deal with the
:31:07. > :31:09.politics. There has been a huge growth in self-employment from the
:31:10. > :31:11.turn of the millennium. It's been strongest amongst older workers,
:31:12. > :31:19.women part-timers. Do you have any idea, do you have
:31:20. > :31:23.the data in your commission that could tell us how many are taking
:31:24. > :31:28.self-employment because they like the flexibility and they like the
:31:29. > :31:33.tax advantages that come with it, too, or they are being forced into
:31:34. > :31:37.it by employers who don't want the extra costs of employment? Do we
:31:38. > :31:44.know the difference? We do, broadly. Most surveys on self-employment and
:31:45. > :31:46.flexible forms of employment suggest about two thirds to three quarters
:31:47. > :31:51.enjoy it, they like the flexibility, they like the autonomy and about a
:31:52. > :31:55.third to one quarter are less happy. That tends to be because they would
:31:56. > :31:57.like to have a full-time permanent job. It is not necessary that they
:31:58. > :32:02.don't enjoy what they are doing, they would like to do other things.
:32:03. > :32:06.And some of the protections that come with it? Yes. There are some
:32:07. > :32:10.people who are forced into southern employees by high-risk but also some
:32:11. > :32:14.people feel like they can't get a proper job as it were. --
:32:15. > :32:20.self-employment by people who hire them. It is on the narrow matter of
:32:21. > :32:24.tax revenues but if you are employed on ?32,000 the state will take over
:32:25. > :32:28.?6,000 in national insurance contributions, that is quite chunky.
:32:29. > :32:33.If you are self-employed it is ?2300. But the big difference
:32:34. > :32:39.between those figures isn't what the employee is paying, it's the
:32:40. > :32:43.employer's contributions up to almost 14%, and cupped for as much
:32:44. > :32:52.as you are paid. What do you do about employers' contributions for
:32:53. > :32:56.the self employed? -- it is uncapped for as much. What I recommend is
:32:57. > :33:00.that we should probably move from taxing employment to taxing labour.
:33:01. > :33:04.We should probably have a more level playing field so it doesn't really
:33:05. > :33:08.matter... Explained that I thought it was the same thing. If you are a
:33:09. > :33:13.self-employed gardener, you are a different tax regime to a gardener
:33:14. > :33:21.who works for a gardening firm. On the individual side and on the firm
:33:22. > :33:24.side. As we see new business models, so-called gig working, partly with
:33:25. > :33:29.technology, we need a more level playing field saying that we're
:33:30. > :33:34.taxing people's work, not the form in which they deliver that. That is
:33:35. > :33:36.part of the reason we have seen the growth of particular business
:33:37. > :33:41.models. They are innovative and creative and partly driven by the
:33:42. > :33:45.fact that if you can describe yourself as self-employed there are
:33:46. > :33:47.tax advantages. Coming out in June? Will you come back and talk to us?
:33:48. > :33:49.Yes. We say goodbye to viewers
:33:50. > :33:54.in Scotland, who leave us now Coming up here in 20 minutes,
:33:55. > :33:59.we'll be talking to the former Tory MP who was the root
:34:00. > :34:05.of Donald Trump's allegation that he had been put
:34:06. > :34:18.under surveillance by Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics
:34:19. > :34:20.in Northern Ireland. After a week of talks at Stormont
:34:21. > :34:23.and a threat of another election, I'll be asking the Fianna Fail
:34:24. > :34:25.TD, Brendan Smith, how This week saw a controversial
:34:26. > :34:29.Westminster budget but with still no sign of any kind of
:34:30. > :34:31.budget at Stormont - And with their thoughts
:34:32. > :34:35.throughout, I'm joined by the Irish News Editor,
:34:36. > :34:38.Noel Doran, and the News Letter's One week of negotiations done
:34:39. > :34:50.and two more to go before the Secretary of State finds himself
:34:51. > :34:53.calling a second snap Direct rule is another
:34:54. > :34:56.possibility or thirdly, The Sinn Fein President,
:34:57. > :35:01.Gerry Adams, who's been at Stormont most of the week,
:35:02. > :35:04.said this morning he thinks that The Government in London on the back
:35:05. > :35:20.of Brexit and on the back of its own policy wants to dismantle
:35:21. > :35:23.lots of the human rights aspects What we need, this is what our focus
:35:24. > :35:33.is, and implementation process we are involved in,
:35:34. > :35:35.those agreements, the different elements of a deal, the human
:35:36. > :35:37.rights elements of it, the bill of rights, these different
:35:38. > :35:40.commitments which have been made but not kept need to be delivered
:35:41. > :35:43.on and if that happens then the institutions will go back
:35:44. > :35:46.in place and we will continue to do our best to
:35:47. > :35:55.work for the people. And with me now is the Fianna
:35:56. > :35:58.Fail TD Brendan Smith who's been keeping a close eye
:35:59. > :36:00.on developments here. You sit on a Dail committee
:36:01. > :36:03.on the implementation of the 1998 Agreement -
:36:04. > :36:05.Mr Adams was talking there about the need for delivery
:36:06. > :36:07.on outstanding commitments. Do you share his view that those
:36:08. > :36:21.issues need to be resolved before I think all of those issues are
:36:22. > :36:24.outstanding from the good credit agreement and success of agreements
:36:25. > :36:28.and they should be implemented and I think Mr Adams referred to Brexit
:36:29. > :36:33.and the issues confronting us and the knock-on effect of the good
:36:34. > :36:38.credit agreement and that is why it is absolutely essential that it was
:36:39. > :36:41.a agency is attached to having the Executive back in place and a
:36:42. > :36:46.working assembly and I think the substantial increase in the time-out
:36:47. > :36:51.showed the electorate of Northern Ireland want an assembly that works,
:36:52. > :36:52.wants an Executive that works and with the issues facing every family
:36:53. > :36:53.in Northern Ireland. Mr Adams says it's perfectly
:36:54. > :36:56.possible that the politicians can do Do you think that's what Sinn Fein
:36:57. > :37:07.wants at this stage? I would think so and I sincerely
:37:08. > :37:12.hope the DUP and the other parties work to the mandate that has been
:37:13. > :37:17.given to all of us, the mandate from the endorsement of the Good Friday
:37:18. > :37:21.Agreement and referendum north and south in May 19 98. It is beholden
:37:22. > :37:26.to all of us and parliamentary politics to put those institutions
:37:27. > :37:28.in place, working for the betterment of the people of society in Northern
:37:29. > :37:47.Ireland and that all of our island. There's been a lot of speculation
:37:48. > :37:50.that Sinn Fein might be keen to play the long game in the Stormont talks
:37:51. > :37:54.to see how things pan out and to enable the party
:37:55. > :37:55.to consolidate its position in the Republic with the possibility
:37:56. > :38:01.of another election very soon. They have had success in the recent
:38:02. > :38:03.system elections as have the SDLP as well but we have another poll next
:38:04. > :38:12.weekend could have different results. During the course of the
:38:13. > :38:20.previous, every second Sunday Sinn Fein were ahead of Fina Phil Fianna
:38:21. > :38:27.Fail and the polls and that is the only poll that I give any credence
:38:28. > :38:34.to. That is top of Mr Adams being potentially in a position, would
:38:35. > :38:43.Fianna Fail watch with Sinn Fein if that was the way to produce a stable
:38:44. > :38:46.Government and the south? The parties initiated by Sinn Fein are
:38:47. > :38:53.not compatible with the parties of Fianna Fail. We will go to the next
:38:54. > :38:57.election with our manifesto programme and 60 endorsement to grow
:38:58. > :39:00.our party. We went from 20 seats to 44 in the last election and we hope
:39:01. > :39:08.to increase that substantially again. There is no election on the
:39:09. > :39:14.horizon and the south. Do you really think not? There will be a new
:39:15. > :39:19.leader of Fine Gaelz sooner rather than later and then the Montez or
:39:20. > :39:27.her own mandate. The other is elected as the new leader or what to
:39:28. > :39:36.stay in the office as long as possible. Fianna Fail have given a
:39:37. > :39:44.commitment and that brings us up to 2019 and that'll be honoured unless
:39:45. > :39:49.Fine Gael mess up and honour the agreement.
:39:50. > :39:51.Charlie Flanagan says some of the issues still to be resolved
:39:52. > :39:54.go right back to 1998 - so how would Fianna Fail handle
:39:55. > :40:11.For Charlie Flanagan has been doing this week is emphasising the need to
:40:12. > :40:15.deal with the legacy issues. James Brokenshire's comments this week and
:40:16. > :40:19.he would release funding to speed up the increase, to deal with the hard
:40:20. > :40:22.ship and the grief that families have suffered for far too long,
:40:23. > :40:27.legacy issues have to be dealt with and be have to have an implement it
:40:28. > :40:31.in time to deal with all of these outstanding issues. I think that is
:40:32. > :40:34.a necessary incremental step forward to ensure that we get in place the
:40:35. > :40:43.Executive before that three-week period is out. Would you and Fianna
:40:44. > :40:49.Fail support Sinn Fein's veto on Arlene Foster vitamin? What I would
:40:50. > :40:55.say is to deal with the legacy issues and other outstanding issues
:40:56. > :41:01.from the good Freddie agreement and the last thing in any country would
:41:02. > :41:04.you have more than one party and Government as the personnel and the
:41:05. > :41:07.positions, that should be the last eight to be dealt with by both
:41:08. > :41:12.parties. I think both the DUP and Sinn Fein and other parties should
:41:13. > :41:17.be putting a proper programme for Government. Let us remember in the
:41:18. > :41:22.middle of November and the Irish News, Arlene Foster and Martin
:41:23. > :41:26.McGuinness had an article read this book about both other parties going
:41:27. > :41:35.for the long haul, no grandstanding or gimmicks. We have moved on since
:41:36. > :41:40.then? We have but if we could achieve in 1998 the Good Friday
:41:41. > :41:45.Agreement after more than 30 years of mayhem, surely after a few weeks
:41:46. > :41:48.of difficulties those parties should reach an agreement and the issues of
:41:49. > :41:51.all the people in Ireland are very difficult, we have the Brexit issue
:41:52. > :41:55.hitting us already and we don't have to be two years for the negative
:41:56. > :42:01.impact of Brexit to hurt us. It is set as in the broader economy
:42:02. > :42:03.already, the area I know best and we have here a non-functioning
:42:04. > :42:10.Executive, that is not what the people of Northern Ireland want.
:42:11. > :42:15.Cross of some sort of resolution cannot be reached, would you support
:42:16. > :42:18.joint authority? The only thing on the agenda is to put in place the
:42:19. > :42:23.institutions that are all mandated by the people north and south and
:42:24. > :42:27.the referendum of 1998, I don't countenance anything else and I
:42:28. > :42:31.would be optimistic that that can be achieved. There is a budget to be
:42:32. > :42:38.put in place, there are health and education issues confronting rural
:42:39. > :42:43.communities farmers and I emphasise again, I cheer the all-party
:42:44. > :42:47.committee and participated in the Good Friday Agreement and we are in
:42:48. > :42:51.crossed in dealing with the Brexit issues as we work on a daily basis,
:42:52. > :42:58.that's what the assembly should be doing to stop Cross Arlene Foster
:42:59. > :43:01.said in an interview it is a great opportunity, Brexit as a great
:43:02. > :43:09.opportunity for the UK Government and Northern Ireland. The farmers I
:43:10. > :43:13.talk two in Fermanagh are worried the boulders their payments and let
:43:14. > :43:18.us remember that almost 90% of farming from Northern Ireland is
:43:19. > :43:21.dependent on a funding transfer from Europe. No Tory or Labour Government
:43:22. > :43:26.in Westminster will substitute that payment. Thank you.
:43:27. > :43:28.Gerry Adams isn't the only local politician making the most
:43:29. > :43:32.Arlene Foster has given an interview to Sky News in which she says
:43:33. > :43:34.she has not considered resigning as DUP leader following
:43:35. > :43:38.Mrs Foster has declined to be interviewed by the BBC,
:43:39. > :43:41.but speaking to Sky she insisted the result has not been disastrous
:43:42. > :43:49.for the party but is, in fact, a wake-up call for unionism.
:43:50. > :43:52.As well as that, the national turnout increased, a lot of people
:43:53. > :43:55.have been talking to me since last Friday since the results
:43:56. > :43:58.were becoming known and a great sense of shock and how could this
:43:59. > :44:02.happen and I think it has been a bit of a wake-up call in terms
:44:03. > :44:24.Have to continue with the negotiations and the spirit in which
:44:25. > :44:27.they have begun and I hope that will happen and I hope we get to a
:44:28. > :44:29.situation where we can bring about the return of the devolved
:44:30. > :44:30.administration as quickly as possible.
:44:31. > :44:32.Arlene Foster speaking there to Sky News -
:44:33. > :44:35.and with me now to reflect on what both she and Gerry Adams
:44:36. > :44:38.have had to say, I'm joined by the Editor of the Irish News,
:44:39. > :44:41.Noel Doran, and the News Letter's political editor, Sam McBride.
:44:42. > :44:43.Sam, we haven't heard a great deal from the DUP leader
:44:44. > :44:46.since the election - so were there any surprises
:44:47. > :44:59.Note. She is very much in the same tone she has had a new last very
:45:00. > :45:06.faint and from and is DUP supporters would see it in some cases, very
:45:07. > :45:09.strong. It is from opposition she is being asked questions such as is
:45:10. > :45:12.this a disastrous election for unionism and she is trying to see it
:45:13. > :45:17.is not and it is difficult to spend it in that way when you look at how
:45:18. > :45:22.many seats they lost here, and she is in a position where she can see
:45:23. > :45:23.it's been a disaster but most people within the DUP looking at saying
:45:24. > :45:25.that is exactly what it is. She clearly sees herself
:45:26. > :45:28.as the leader of unionism with a big job to do in terms of the continuing
:45:29. > :45:31.negotiations and in shaping relationships within the broader
:45:32. > :45:44.unionist family at what is clearly There is no doubt about that but I
:45:45. > :45:46.suspect the people most released few Arlene Foster is intending to stay
:45:47. > :45:51.in her post will be Sinn Fein because she has become their
:45:52. > :45:57.greatest asset. Not so long ago Sinn Fein were quite a difficult position
:45:58. > :46:04.with a crisp confused response to RHI contradicting each other in
:46:05. > :46:06.public. Everything has changed utterly, they have the wind behind
:46:07. > :46:10.their sales no and in a really strong position and I take Brendan
:46:11. > :46:14.'s point about polls but they have been given a big left and the south
:46:15. > :46:23.surviving Arlene position with all that she represents give them a
:46:24. > :46:31.considerable advantage. Do you think our readership is secure? She seems
:46:32. > :46:34.to have faced that down at a meeting last Tuesday and I think we may see
:46:35. > :46:38.still significant changes in the backroom team with the DUP there but
:46:39. > :46:43.at this point it is very much business as usual. And very much no
:46:44. > :46:44.chance of her taking humble pie that Ian Paisley Junior was suggesting
:46:45. > :46:46.she should take. Meantime Gerry Adams has also taken
:46:47. > :46:48.to the airwaves today. What do you make of how
:46:49. > :46:56.he's playing his hand? He is in a very strong position. It
:46:57. > :46:59.has been suggested in the past that he is never a person to beastie
:47:00. > :47:03.opportunity provided by a good crisis and he is certainly playing
:47:04. > :47:07.his cards very well at the moment but it almost suits him to sit tight
:47:08. > :47:11.and let the institutions go on hold for a prolonged period, that seems
:47:12. > :47:15.to be very much playing to the wishes of the Sinn Fein electorate
:47:16. > :47:18.and the widest nationalists electorate as well because the
:47:19. > :47:21.administration at Stormont and become very unpopular and seemed to
:47:22. > :47:25.be acting in the interests of one side of the committee rather than
:47:26. > :47:28.the entire community sort of Gerry Adams does what he is doing no evil
:47:29. > :47:37.be in a very strong position for quite some time. Gerry Adams and
:47:38. > :47:42.Sinn Fein major players on both side of the border? That's right and for
:47:43. > :47:46.the first time Sinn Fein are ahead of Fine Gael as the second party in
:47:47. > :47:51.the south, that may not be accurate at may just be an aberration but to
:47:52. > :47:53.be up for Mac points after what has happened certainly suggest that what
:47:54. > :47:54.has happened here is perhaps having an impact south of the border. Thank
:47:55. > :48:00.you. As the Chancellor, Philip Hammond,
:48:01. > :48:02.deals with the backlash against Wednesday's budget -
:48:03. > :48:04.the lack of a budget With no Executive and no budget,
:48:05. > :48:08.are public services starting I'm joined by Professor Neil Gibson,
:48:09. > :48:25.director of Ulster University's What are the imprecations of the
:48:26. > :48:31.national insurance changes in Northern Ireland? It was actually
:48:32. > :48:36.quite a quiet budget and the whole focus has been on this change to
:48:37. > :48:39.national insurance contributions for the self-employed. It is a big and
:48:40. > :48:42.important sector in Northern Ireland particularly in construction and
:48:43. > :48:46.farming and will have an effect on those who make reasonable amounts of
:48:47. > :48:49.profit but actually changes to class to mean that people making small at
:48:50. > :48:57.a profitable actually be a little bit better off. That's the
:48:58. > :49:02.Westminster budget which did happen, which is it problem between number
:49:03. > :49:07.ten and number 11, the fact that we do not have a budget and we are
:49:08. > :49:10.about to have a budget and the near future obviously as a cause of major
:49:11. > :49:16.concern here. How worried are you at that prospect? Extremely worried.
:49:17. > :49:20.Normally I would see the short-term effects are fairly modest, there
:49:21. > :49:26.isn't a watt of legislation about to be passed but right now we have some
:49:27. > :49:30.very important matters, devolution and corporation tax and of course
:49:31. > :49:36.the budget negotiations, who is when to fight Northern Ireland's, without
:49:37. > :49:40.an Executive there to do so. In the long run all our competitors and the
:49:41. > :49:45.rest of the UK are making progress and investing in roads and funding
:49:46. > :49:48.their education systems and B are all slipping slowly behind and it is
:49:49. > :49:52.about like putting on weight, you might not protest the immediate
:49:53. > :49:54.effect but eventually end if you used a Rubel finally fallen further
:49:55. > :50:00.behind in the competitive race. The deadline to get a budget
:50:01. > :50:14.on the books is 29th March - How do Government compare
:50:15. > :50:19.departments continue to deliver services and over the next few
:50:20. > :50:24.months? That would be quite as alarming as it seems. They will have
:50:25. > :50:28.most of the money to operate with any shot run from July but we don't
:50:29. > :50:31.they suspend all the money in the short run and I don't think anyone
:50:32. > :50:39.should panic that our public services will fall into crisis. If
:50:40. > :50:43.you get to July and it is 95%, that is a 5% cut. That is only an interim
:50:44. > :50:48.measure and if we get that far and still haven't agreed enviable mix
:50:49. > :50:51.different arrangements but what prevents is as reallocating money
:50:52. > :50:56.across different priorities and direct revenue look at the health
:50:57. > :51:01.and is education, we need to have those strategic conversations about
:51:02. > :51:04.where to spend our money. Health consumes such a huge amount of
:51:05. > :51:09.budget and education as a potential problem and we would have the
:51:10. > :51:15.capacity and obligations for local Government. The fact that we saw
:51:16. > :51:18.Theresa May spending a lot of the time of the budget excluding how
:51:19. > :51:22.expense of public services are getting and we are looking at a
:51:23. > :51:26.warrant in which tax rises will have to come and the Executive is not you
:51:27. > :51:29.to decide exactly who shall pay those tax increases so if we fall
:51:30. > :51:34.behind, we would have anyone else to blame for ourselves for not being
:51:35. > :51:38.there to make those decisions. They do you think this situation makes us
:51:39. > :51:42.look to the outside world? I think is very damaging but the press
:51:43. > :51:47.coverage isn't huge nationally because of their own problems,
:51:48. > :51:50.worried about their own ability to deliver health care so we are not as
:51:51. > :51:52.high up the power to list globally as you might think we are.
:51:53. > :52:09.Are you depressed at what we have just heard? Clearly there is going
:52:10. > :52:13.to be an enormous difficulty over the budget and honestly there is a
:52:14. > :52:16.vacancy for the head of the civil service which is unresolved doesn't
:52:17. > :52:20.exactly help but I'm sure we can stumble on because we have always
:52:21. > :52:24.stumbled on in the past. It's clearly not good Government but we
:52:25. > :52:30.have to focus on the budgets and we are looking very closely at RHI, EU
:52:31. > :52:32.crisis is Brexit and its implications across the board
:52:33. > :52:36.because it is completely transformed attitudes which has had a big impact
:52:37. > :52:40.on the last election, forced nationalists to look again at the
:52:41. > :52:44.Good Friday Agreement and the border issue and Unionists were able to see
:52:45. > :52:51.the border remains in place and naturalists the leg nationalists
:52:52. > :52:55.said it had no effect on day-to-day basis above the Brexit result has
:52:56. > :52:59.thrown it back on peoples faces and force people to confront the whole
:53:00. > :53:01.issue of partition and the constitutional question and the way
:53:02. > :53:05.that almost a generation had slipped away from and that has been a real
:53:06. > :53:11.game changer and that is going to change events for quite some time to
:53:12. > :53:14.come. Unless you see Brexit as a tremendous opportunity which many in
:53:15. > :53:19.the Unionist family do? I think unionism as split on this. Unionism
:53:20. > :53:23.was very firmly in favour of Brexit in terms of people who came out to
:53:24. > :53:27.vote but there is a significant minority within unionism and the DUP
:53:28. > :53:33.who were actually very uneasy about this, he felt that something which
:53:34. > :53:35.appears to be settled constitutionally and also economic
:53:36. > :53:40.league were suddenly going to be thrown up in the area at a point
:53:41. > :53:45.where Scotland was already agitating for change and a separate part of
:53:46. > :53:48.the UK. So fill the dominant position within unionism is to say
:53:49. > :53:56.we want to take back some country, or the rhetoric during the campaign,
:53:57. > :53:57.there is another section of business union unionism is very concerned
:53:58. > :54:00.about what is happening here. Let's pause for a moment and take
:54:01. > :54:23.a look back at the political week say and do political landscape has
:54:24. > :54:28.shifted enormously. I think this is the biggest vote ever cast for any
:54:29. > :54:31.party in an assembly election and that we be perverse to see as a
:54:32. > :54:39.result of that someone should step aside. In the longer term it may
:54:40. > :54:44.well be that bit about this relationship evolves is to a point
:54:45. > :54:51.where you have a broader Unionist movement. What chance ideal? I think
:54:52. > :54:55.there is a sense of urgency at what is at hand here, the significance of
:54:56. > :54:59.the issues we are dealing with. I detect a willingness on the part of
:55:00. > :55:09.all parties involved to sit down and engage constructively. OCD may? Who
:55:10. > :55:15.is she. He is called Gerry Adams. MLAs are at Stormont
:55:16. > :55:23.tomorrow to sign in - but a new Speaker won't be elected
:55:24. > :55:36.and we're not expecting There's no doubt about that and
:55:37. > :55:39.expectations are low and we have always managed to cobble something
:55:40. > :55:44.together in the past but there is a sense that institutions will be on
:55:45. > :55:47.hold for quite some time and that may be something the DUP regret that
:55:48. > :55:52.we are in different circumstances and I think Arlene Foster will have
:55:53. > :55:55.to come to terms with that. And the short term and thus potentially does
:55:56. > :56:00.suit Sinn Fein and the think there is a long term risk for an onerous,
:56:01. > :56:04.we saw how quickly add dominant position for Arlene Foster can
:56:05. > :56:07.quickly fall apart and there is a danger that Sinn Fein in this
:56:08. > :56:11.calculates the risks from not having a budget from returning to direct
:56:12. > :56:15.rule which they have always said was Tory direct rule and I think that
:56:16. > :56:18.was to happen and they are seen as responsible for it and hospitals are
:56:19. > :56:28.in crisis, I think there is a real risk for Republicans in that
:56:29. > :56:35.scenario. The new MLAs Hussein and tomorrow will be mindful of being a
:56:36. > :56:43.sideshow and the real focus seems to be installed? One possible solution
:56:44. > :56:46.is yet another selection which would be the third, I don't think many
:56:47. > :56:51.people are taking it seriously at this stage. The emphasis has to be
:56:52. > :56:55.on talks and consensus but not too many people think it would to be
:56:56. > :57:02.arrived at in the short-term. An election or not? I think from the
:57:03. > :57:05.very start of this process James Brokenshire has held that over their
:57:06. > :57:05.heads as a threat and maybe he will follow through on it.
:57:06. > :57:20.Now the government plans for new grammar schools.
:57:21. > :57:22.The Education Secretary Justine Greening was
:57:23. > :57:24.speaking to a conference of headteachers on Friday.
:57:25. > :57:25.They're normally a pretty polite bunch, but they didn't
:57:26. > :57:32.Broadcasters weren't allowed into the speech,
:57:33. > :57:37.but this was captured on a camera phone.
:57:38. > :57:40.And we have to recognise actually for grammars, in terms of
:57:41. > :57:44.disadvantaged children, that they have, they really
:57:45. > :57:46.do help them close the attainment gap.
:57:47. > :57:48.And at the same time we should recognise that
:57:49. > :57:56...That parents also want choice for their children and that
:57:57. > :58:03.those schools are often very oversubscribed.
:58:04. > :58:12.I suppose it is a rite of passage for and education secretaries to
:58:13. > :58:17.have this at a head teachers conference book the head are usually
:58:18. > :58:20.more polite. Isn't part of the problem, whether one is for or
:58:21. > :58:26.against the expansion of grammar schools, the government plans are
:58:27. > :58:31.complicated, you cannot sum them up in a sentence. The proof of that is
:58:32. > :58:35.they can still get away with denying they are expanding grammar schools.
:58:36. > :58:38.They will find an alternative formulation because it is not as
:58:39. > :58:42.simple as a brute creation of what we used to know is grammar schools
:58:43. > :58:49.with the absolute cut-off of the 11 plus. I am surprised how easy they
:58:50. > :58:53.found it politically. We saw the clip of Justine Greening being
:58:54. > :58:57.jeered a little bit but in the grand scheme, compared to another
:58:58. > :59:01.government trying this idea a decade ago they have got away with it
:59:02. > :59:05.easily and I think what is happening is a perverse consequence of Brexit
:59:06. > :59:10.and the media attention on Brexit, the government of the day can just
:59:11. > :59:14.about get away with slightly more contentious domestic policies on the
:59:15. > :59:19.correct assumption we will be too busy investing our attention in
:59:20. > :59:23.Article 50 and two years of negotiations, WTO terms at
:59:24. > :59:28.everything we have been discussing. I wonder if after grammar schools
:59:29. > :59:31.there will be examples of contentious domestic policies
:59:32. > :59:40.Theresa May can slide in stock because Brexit sucks the life out,
:59:41. > :59:45.takes the attention away. You are a supporter. Broadly. Are you happy
:59:46. > :59:50.with the government approach? They need to have more gumption and stop
:59:51. > :59:54.being apologetic. It is a bazaar area of public policy where we judge
:59:55. > :59:59.the policy on grammar schools based on what it does for children whose
:00:00. > :00:03.parents are unemployed, living on sink estates in Liverpool. It is
:00:04. > :00:08.absurd, we don't judge any other policy like that. It is simple, not
:00:09. > :00:12.contentious, people who are not sure, ask them if they would apply
:00:13. > :00:19.to send their child there, six out of ten said they would. Parents want
:00:20. > :00:21.good schools for their children, we should have appropriate education
:00:22. > :00:25.and they should be straightforward, this is about the future of the
:00:26. > :00:28.economy and we need bright children to get education at the highest
:00:29. > :00:35.level, education for academically bright children. It is supposed to
:00:36. > :00:38.be a signature policy of the Theresa May administration that marks a
:00:39. > :00:42.government different from David Cameron's government who did not go
:00:43. > :00:47.down this road. The signature is pretty blurred, it is hard to read.
:00:48. > :00:55.It is. She is trying to address concerns about those who fail to get
:00:56. > :00:58.into these selective schools and tried to targeted in poorer areas
:00:59. > :01:01.and the rest of it. She will probably come across so many
:01:02. > :01:06.obstacles. It is not clear what form it will take in the end. It is
:01:07. > :01:09.really an example of a signature policy not fully thought through. I
:01:10. > :01:13.think it was one of her first announcements. It was. It surprised
:01:14. > :01:18.everybody. Surprised at the speed and pace at which they were planning
:01:19. > :01:23.to go. Ever since, there have been qualifications and hesitations en
:01:24. > :01:27.route with good cause, in my view. I disagree with Juliet that this is...
:01:28. > :01:30.We all want good schools but if you don't get in there and you end up in
:01:31. > :01:34.a less good school. They already do that. We have selection based on the
:01:35. > :01:38.income of parents getting into a good catchment area, based on the
:01:39. > :01:44.faith of the parents. That becomes very attainable! I might been too
:01:45. > :01:47.shot run christenings for these. -- I have been.
:01:48. > :01:49.Now, you may remember this time last week we were talking
:01:50. > :01:52.about the extraordinary claims by US President Donald Trump,
:01:53. > :01:54.on Twitter of course, that Barack Obama had ordered
:01:55. > :01:57.And there was me thinking that wiretaps went out
:01:58. > :02:02.Is it legal for a sitting President to do so, he asked,
:02:03. > :02:11.concluding it was a "new low", and later comparing it to Watergate.
:02:12. > :02:14.Since then, the White House has been pressed to provide evidence for this
:02:15. > :02:20.It hasn't, but it seems it may have initially come from a report on a US
:02:21. > :02:23.website by the former Conservative MP Louise Mensch.
:02:24. > :02:26.She wrote that the FBI had been granted a warrant to intercept
:02:27. > :02:33.communications between Trump's campaign and Russia.
:02:34. > :02:42.Well, Louise Mensch joins us now from New York.
:02:43. > :02:48.Louise, you claimed in early November that the FBI had secured a
:02:49. > :02:53.court warrants to monitor communications between trump Tower
:02:54. > :02:57.in New York at two Russian banks. It's now four months later. Isn't it
:02:58. > :03:02.the case that nobody has proved the existence of this warrant?
:03:03. > :03:08.First of all, forgive me Andrew, one takes 1's life in one's hand when it
:03:09. > :03:12.is you but I have to correct your characterisation of my reporting. It
:03:13. > :03:16.is very important. I did not report that the FBI had a warrant to
:03:17. > :03:21.intercept anything or that Trump tower was any part of it. What I
:03:22. > :03:25.reported was that the FBI obtained a warrant is targeted on all
:03:26. > :03:29.communications between two Russian banks and were, therefore, allowed
:03:30. > :03:35.to examine US persons in the context of their investigation. What the
:03:36. > :03:40.Americans call legally incidental collection. I certainly didn't
:03:41. > :03:44.report that the warrant was able to intercept or that it had location
:03:45. > :03:50.basis, for example Trump tower. I just didn't report that. The reason
:03:51. > :03:55.that matters so much is that I now believe based on the President's
:03:56. > :03:59.reaction, there may well be a wiretap act Trump Tower. If so,
:04:00. > :04:02.Donald Trump has just tweeted out evidence in an ongoing criminal case
:04:03. > :04:06.that neither I nor anybody else reported. He is right about
:04:07. > :04:10.Watergate because he will have committed obstruction of justice
:04:11. > :04:14.directly from his Twitter account. Let me come back as thank you for
:04:15. > :04:21.clarifying. Let me come back to the question. -- and thank you. We have
:04:22. > :04:26.not yet got proof that this warrant exists, do we? No and we are most
:04:27. > :04:29.unlikely to get it because it would be a heinous crime for Donald Trump
:04:30. > :04:33.to reveal its existence. In America they call it a Glomar response. I
:04:34. > :04:37.can neither confirm nor deny. That is what all American officials will
:04:38. > :04:41.have to say legally. If you are looking for proof, you won't get it
:04:42. > :04:47.until and unless a court cases brought. But that doesn't mean it
:04:48. > :04:50.doesn't exist. The BBC validated this two months after me in their
:04:51. > :04:55.reporting by the journalist Paul Wood. The Guardian, they also
:04:56. > :04:59.separately from their own sources validated the existence of the
:05:00. > :05:02.warrant. If you are in America, you would know that CNN and others are
:05:03. > :05:06.reporting that the investigation in ongoing. Let me come onto the wider
:05:07. > :05:11.point. You believe the Trump campaign including the president
:05:12. > :05:14.were complicit with the Russians during the 2016 election campaign to
:05:15. > :05:16.such an extent that Mr Trump should be impeached. What evidence did you
:05:17. > :05:25.have? That is an enormous amount of
:05:26. > :05:28.evidence. You could start with him saying, hey, Russia, if you are
:05:29. > :05:34.listening, please release all the Hillary Clinton's e-mails. That's
:05:35. > :05:36.not evidence. I think it rather is, actually. Especially if you look at
:05:37. > :05:41.some of the evidence that exists on Twitter and elsewhere of people
:05:42. > :05:45.talking directly to his social media manager, Dan should be no and
:05:46. > :05:49.telling him to do that before it happened. There is a bit out there.
:05:50. > :05:55.The BBC itself reported that in April of last year, a six agency
:05:56. > :05:58.task force, not just the FBI, but the Treasury Department, was looking
:05:59. > :06:02.at this. I believe there is an enormous amount of evidence. And
:06:03. > :06:04.then there is the steel dossier which was included in an official
:06:05. > :06:13.report of the US intelligence committee. You've also ... Just to
:06:14. > :06:17.be clear, we don't have hard evidence yet whether this warrant
:06:18. > :06:20.exists. It may or may not. There is doubt about... There are claims
:06:21. > :06:23.about whether there is evidence about Mr Trump and the Russians.
:06:24. > :06:30.That is another matter. You claimed that President Putin had Andrew
:06:31. > :06:36.Breitbart murdered to pave the way for Steve Bannon to play a key role
:06:37. > :06:40.in the Trump administration. I haven't. You said that Steve Bannon
:06:41. > :06:45.is behind bomb threats to Jewish community centres. Aren't you in
:06:46. > :06:49.danger of just peddling wild conspiracy theories? No. Festival, I
:06:50. > :06:54.haven't. No matter how many times people say this, it's not going to
:06:55. > :06:57.be true -- first of all. I said in twitter I believe that to be the
:06:58. > :07:04.case about the murder of Andrew Breitbart. You believe President
:07:05. > :07:08.Putin murdered him. I didn't! You said I reported it, but I believed
:07:09. > :07:13.it. You put it on twitter that you believed it but you don't have a
:07:14. > :07:18.shred of evidence. I do. Indeed, I know made assertions. What is the
:07:19. > :07:23.evidence that Mr Putin murdered Andrew Breitbart? I said I believe
:07:24. > :07:27.it. You may believe there are fairies at the bottom of your
:07:28. > :07:32.garden, it doesn't make it true. I may indeed. And if I say so, that's
:07:33. > :07:39.my belief. If I say I am reporting, as I did with the Fisa warrant
:07:40. > :07:46.exists, I have a basis in fact. They believe is just a belief. I know you
:07:47. > :07:53.are relatively new to journalism. Let me get the rules right. Andrew,
:07:54. > :07:56.jealousy is not your colour... If it is twitter, we don't believe it but
:07:57. > :08:01.if it is on your website, we should believe it? If I report something
:08:02. > :08:05.and I say this happened, then I am making an assertion. If I describe a
:08:06. > :08:11.belief, I am describing a belief. Subtlety may be a little difficult
:08:12. > :08:18.for you... No, no. If you want to be a journalist, beliefs have to be
:08:19. > :08:22.backed up with evidence. Really? Do you have a faith? It's not a matter
:08:23. > :08:27.of faith, maybe in your case, that President Putin murdered Andrew
:08:28. > :08:30.Breitbart. A belief and a report at two different things and no matter
:08:31. > :08:36.how often you say that they are the same, they will never be the same.
:08:37. > :08:43.You've said in today's Sunday Times here in London that you've turned
:08:44. > :08:49.into" a temporary superpower" where you "See things really clearly".
:08:50. > :08:55.Have you become delusional? No. I am describing a biological basis for
:08:56. > :08:58.ADHD, which I have. As any of your viewers who are doctors will know.
:08:59. > :09:02.It provides people with unfortunately a lot of scattered
:09:03. > :09:04.focus, they are very messy and absent-minded but when they are
:09:05. > :09:09.interested in things and they have ADHD they can have a condition which
:09:10. > :09:12.is hyper focus. You concentrate very hard on a given subject and you can
:09:13. > :09:18.see patterns and connections. That is biological. Thank you for
:09:19. > :09:24.explaining that. And for getting up early in New York. The first time
:09:25. > :09:28.ever I have interviewed a temporary superpower. Thank you. You are so
:09:29. > :09:32.lucky! You are so lucky! I don't think it's going to happen again.
:09:33. > :09:35.Please don't ask us to comment on that interview! I will not ask you,
:09:36. > :09:40.viewers will make up their own minds. Let's come back to be more
:09:41. > :09:44.mundane world of Article 50. Stop the killing!
:09:45. > :09:49.Will it get through at the government wanted it? Without the
:09:50. > :09:53.Lords amendment falling by the way that? I am sure the Lord will not
:09:54. > :09:57.try to ping-pong this back and forth. So we are at the end of this
:09:58. > :10:01.particular legislative phase. The fact that all three Brexit Cabinet
:10:02. > :10:04.ministers, number ten often don't like one of them going out on a
:10:05. > :10:08.broadcast interview on a Sunday, they've all been out and about. That
:10:09. > :10:13.suggests to me they are working on the assumption it will be triggered
:10:14. > :10:17.this week. This week. The negotiations will begin or at least
:10:18. > :10:20.the process begins. The negotiation process may be difficult, given all
:10:21. > :10:26.of the European elections. The Dutch this week. And then the French and
:10:27. > :10:29.maybe the Italians and certainly the Germans by the end of September,
:10:30. > :10:34.which is less predictable than it was. Given all that, what did you
:10:35. > :10:39.make of Anna Soubry's claim, Viacom on her part, that we may just end up
:10:40. > :10:45.crashing out in six months question -- fear on her part. It was not just
:10:46. > :10:47.that that we made that deliberately organising. I want us to get on with
:10:48. > :10:54.the deals. Everyone knows a good deal is the
:10:55. > :10:59.best option. Who knows what is going to be on the table when we finally
:11:00. > :11:04.go out? Fascinatingly, the demand for some money back, given the
:11:05. > :11:08.amount of money... Net gains and net costs in terms of us leaving for the
:11:09. > :11:15.EU. It is all to play for. That will be a possible early grounds for a
:11:16. > :11:20.confrontation between the UK and the EU. My understanding is that they
:11:21. > :11:24.expect to do a deal on reciprocal rights of EU nationals, EU nationals
:11:25. > :11:28.here, UK citizens there, quite quickly. They want to clear that up
:11:29. > :11:31.and that will be done. Then they will hit this problem that the EU
:11:32. > :11:33.will be saying you've got to agree the divorce Bill first
:11:34. > :11:37.will be saying you've got to agree the divorce Bill first before we
:11:38. > :11:40.talk about the free trade bill. David Davis saying quite clearly,
:11:41. > :11:45.no, they go together because of the size of the bill. It will be
:11:46. > :11:49.determined, in our part, by how good the access will be. The mutual
:11:50. > :11:53.recognition of EU residents' rights is no trouble. A huge amount of fuss
:11:54. > :11:57.is attracted to that subject but it is the easiest thing to deal with,
:11:58. > :12:00.as is free movement for tourists. Money is what will make it
:12:01. > :12:03.incredibly acrimonious. Incredibly quickly. I imagine the dominant
:12:04. > :12:07.story in the summer will be all about that. This was Anna Soubry's
:12:08. > :12:12.implication, members of the governors could strongly argue,
:12:13. > :12:15.things are so poisonous and so unpleasant at the moment, the
:12:16. > :12:19.dealers are advancing -- members of the government. Why not call it a
:12:20. > :12:23.day and go out on WTO terms while public opinion is still in that
:12:24. > :12:27.direction in that Eurosceptic direction? No buyers' remorse about
:12:28. > :12:31.last year's referendum. The longer they leave it, view more opportunity
:12:32. > :12:35.there is for some kind of public resistance and change of mind to
:12:36. > :12:39.take place. The longer believe it, the more people who voted for Brexit
:12:40. > :12:43.and people who voted Remain and think we didn't get world War three
:12:44. > :12:47.will start being quite angry with the EU for not agreeing a deal. In
:12:48. > :12:53.terms of the rights of EU nationals he and Brits abroad, by all
:12:54. > :12:56.accounts, 26 of the 27 have agreed individually. Angela Merkel is the
:12:57. > :13:00.only person who has held that up. That will be dealt with in a matter
:13:01. > :13:06.of days. The chances of a deal being done is likely but in ten seconds...
:13:07. > :13:09.It would not be a bad bet to protect your on something not happening, you
:13:10. > :13:14.might get pretty good odds? The odds are going up that a deal doesn't
:13:15. > :13:20.happen. But, as I said earlier, the House of Commons will not endorse no
:13:21. > :13:25.deal. We are either in an early election or she has to go back
:13:26. > :13:29.again. Either way, you will need us! We will be back at noon tomorrow on
:13:30. > :13:32.BBC Two ahead of what looks like being a big week in politics. We
:13:33. > :13:35.will be back here same time, same place.
:13:36. > :13:39.Remember, if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.