:00:36. > :00:38.Morning, folks, and welcome to the Sunday Politics.
:00:39. > :00:42.begins a new drive urging Scots to support what she calls
:00:43. > :00:45."the beautiful dream" of independence.
:00:46. > :00:50.Tough talk from George Osborne ahead of his Budget on Wednesday.
:00:51. > :00:52.The Chancellor wants us to live within our means.
:00:53. > :00:55.Fighting talk too, from the man in his shadow.
:00:56. > :00:59.John McDonnell wants to revive Labour's economic credibility.
:01:00. > :01:04.And does Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party have a problem
:01:05. > :01:09.Labour students at Oxford are already being investigated
:01:10. > :01:13.And coming up in Northern Ireland: university will also face scrutiny.
:01:14. > :01:17.Colum Eastwood as his home city hosts the SDLP conference.
:01:18. > :01:19.The party leader will be live on the programme.
:01:20. > :01:33.And with me three Fleet Street journos, living the dream.
:01:34. > :01:39.Nick Watt, Julia Harley-Brewer and Tim Shipman.
:01:40. > :01:44.For the rest of us, it is a bit of a nightmare!
:01:45. > :01:46.So, four months ago, George Osborne sounded upbeat
:01:47. > :01:50.Writing in the Sun on Sunday, ahead of Wednesday's Budget,
:01:51. > :01:53.the Chancellor says the world is facing its most uncertain period
:01:54. > :01:57.He says Britain has to act now, rather than pay later,
:01:58. > :02:02.Let's listen to the Chancellor on the Marr Show a little earlier.
:02:03. > :02:05.I think the world is a much more difficult and dangerous place.
:02:06. > :02:08.My message in this Budget is that the world is a more
:02:09. > :02:11.uncertain place than at any time since the financial crisis.
:02:12. > :02:15.We need to act now so we don't pay later.
:02:16. > :02:20.That is why we need to find additional savings,
:02:21. > :02:23.equivalent to 50p in every ?100 the Government spends by the end
:02:24. > :02:26.We have got to live within our means to stay secure.
:02:27. > :02:31.That is the way we make Britain fit for the future.
:02:32. > :02:38.That was the Chancellor earlier this morning. What did we learn? He is
:02:39. > :02:43.preparing the ground for a very difficult budget. Why is he talking
:02:44. > :02:48.about the difficult global economic circumstances? We have a significant
:02:49. > :02:53.slowdown in China but it helps him in the EU referendum campaign. Why
:02:54. > :02:56.risk leaving the EU when it is difficult economic circumstances? It
:02:57. > :03:02.helps him with a budget. You need to expend why he was talking in the
:03:03. > :03:06.July budget, the Autumn Statement, targeting a 10 billion budget
:03:07. > :03:12.surplus by 2020 and now he will be talking back calories and ?18
:03:13. > :03:19.billion hole in the size of the economy. Will he be able to meet
:03:20. > :03:25.that surplus? He needs an alibi for that. All the global headwinds,
:03:26. > :03:26.problems in the emerging markets, the slowdown in China, the
:03:27. > :03:28.problems in the emerging markets, struggling to be overwhelmed. We
:03:29. > :03:32.knew that back in July. struggling to be overwhelmed. We
:03:33. > :03:36.changed. The struggling to be overwhelmed. We
:03:37. > :03:41.Osborne is he is a politician. It is always about politics. It is not
:03:42. > :03:43.ideal, coming into local elections, London mayoral
:03:44. > :03:44.ideal, coming into local elections, giving a load of cuts to public
:03:45. > :03:50.services and possibly tax rises. giving a load of cuts to public
:03:51. > :03:54.reality is he is always looking at the long game and he does always
:03:55. > :03:54.reality is he is always looking at play a brilliant politicians long
:03:55. > :04:01.game. He is looking to 2020 and play a brilliant politicians long
:04:02. > :04:08.not care. He also plays a bad shot game. Will it be a difficult budget
:04:09. > :04:10.or will it be a steady issues budget? What is striking about back
:04:11. > :04:12.in this morning, at least half of it budget? What is striking about back
:04:13. > :04:24.was about the European Union and not the budget. The rest of it was about
:04:25. > :04:27.was about the European Union and not been a difficult and dangerous time
:04:28. > :04:33.for George Osborne and his teacher. He sat there and said, I am
:04:34. > :04:35.for George Osborne and his teacher. going to sit in this chair and
:04:36. > :04:41.mumble away. Who could he be talking about there? We were told week ago
:04:42. > :04:45.that the subtext of the budget would be the dangers of Brexit and the
:04:46. > :04:47.Tory leadership. It is not the subtext, it is the text. There is
:04:48. > :04:56.hardly anything in it in terms of subtext, it is the text. There is
:04:57. > :04:59.we just have another shout out subtext, it is the text. There is
:05:00. > :05:06.the brilliant headline, genius political strategist clears up mess
:05:07. > :05:09.made by genius political strategist. He may be nursing a little rabbit to
:05:10. > :05:14.surprise as always! Now, if a certain referendum had
:05:15. > :05:17.gone a bit differently, Scotland, would be an independent
:05:18. > :05:19.country in just over ten days' time. Those wanting to leave the UK didn't
:05:20. > :05:27.win that argument in 2014 but that It's the party's Spring Conference
:05:28. > :05:30.in Glasgow this weekend, and we're joined now
:05:31. > :05:40.from there by the First Minister Good morning. A pleasure to be with
:05:41. > :05:47.you, Andrew. Had the referendum gone your way, we would be ten days from
:05:48. > :05:51.independents. You will be taking a massive and unsustainable ?15
:05:52. > :05:55.billion budget deficit, 10% of Scottish GDP. What would you be
:05:56. > :06:03.doing to get that down? We would deal with it in the same way the UK
:06:04. > :06:11.dealt with its deficit in 2009/ when they had 2.2% of the GDP. -- 2009/
:06:12. > :06:15.2010. They will be building on the underlying fundamental strengths of
:06:16. > :06:20.the Scottish economy. Our this goal position has been broadly similar to
:06:21. > :06:24.the rest of the UK and, in some years, better than the rest of the
:06:25. > :06:29.UK. Onshore revenues are growing at a faster rate than the fall in
:06:30. > :06:31.offshore revenues. We have higher employment and faster productivity
:06:32. > :06:35.growth. The economy is fundamentally strong and that would have been a
:06:36. > :06:42.very good basis on which to become an independent country. Did you not
:06:43. > :06:45.oppose most efforts of the British government to get the deficit down?
:06:46. > :06:50.I opposed many measures that George Osborne has taken. I do not say we
:06:51. > :06:54.should not try to get the deficit down. I have opposed and continue to
:06:55. > :06:58.oppose the speed at which it is happening in the way in which it is
:06:59. > :07:02.happening but no one would deny that countries want to get their fiscal
:07:03. > :07:06.positions into a more stable condition and the UK is in right
:07:07. > :07:13.now. The point I'm making is the Scottish economy is fundamentally
:07:14. > :07:16.strong economy. Much of what I have said illustrates that point. Let's
:07:17. > :07:19.look at some of the things you have said. You have said most countries
:07:20. > :07:23.have deficits. Can you name another at Fat economy 80s after the
:07:24. > :07:33.financial crash that has a budget deficit of 10% of GDP. You do not
:07:34. > :07:40.look at just one year full if I go back to that -- two 2008, 2009, it
:07:41. > :07:44.was double that of Scotland. Our this goal position has been stronger
:07:45. > :07:50.but is not right now because of the particular issues. Is it not the
:07:51. > :07:55.case that Scotland's deficit now is the highest in the European Union?
:07:56. > :08:01.That is true, isn't it? In the year we had figures published in this
:08:02. > :08:07.past week, we have a very difficult and challenging set of figures. It
:08:08. > :08:12.is the highest. No country, whether the UK, Scotland or another EU
:08:13. > :08:16.country, makes judgments about that this good strength of that country
:08:17. > :08:20.on the strength of one year's goes. The point I am making is over the
:08:21. > :08:25.past ten years, our fiscal position has been broadly similar to the UK
:08:26. > :08:29.and coming summer beiges, has been significantly better. If you project
:08:30. > :08:33.forward to the next five years, the future is much more important than
:08:34. > :08:39.the past, onshore revenues are likely to Bath the outstrip the
:08:40. > :08:44.decline in offshore revenues. -- basked in the outstrip. The North
:08:45. > :08:48.Sea contains difficulties for those working in the North Sea and
:08:49. > :08:52.economies on the North East of Scotland. The economy of Scotland is
:08:53. > :08:57.fundamentally strong. Let's look at more than one year. You have said it
:08:58. > :09:03.is a snapshot. Without oil revenues, and there are no oil revenues now,
:09:04. > :09:09.without the revenues, Scotland has run a persistent budget deficit of
:09:10. > :09:14.over 10% every year for 13 years. You have a systemic deficit problem.
:09:15. > :09:19.Why should you not look at oil revenues? Oil revenues are there and
:09:20. > :09:24.have been contributing to the Treasury to the tune of ?300
:09:25. > :09:30.billion. They are not there now. Without them you have run a
:09:31. > :09:34.persistent budget deficit and have done for 13 years. I accept it is
:09:35. > :09:38.the future that matters more than the past. If you look at the
:09:39. > :09:42.projections for the next five years, our onshore revenues, remember more
:09:43. > :09:47.than 90% of the Scottish economy comes from onshore and not offshore.
:09:48. > :09:52.If you look five years ahead, onshore revenues are projected to
:09:53. > :09:59.grow in the region of ?14 billion. That is many times before in
:10:00. > :10:04.offshore revenues in that period. I am not denying the challenge of
:10:05. > :10:08.North Sea and other countries. Norway is facing exactly the same
:10:09. > :10:12.challenge. Because they are better prepared for it and have Stuart did
:10:13. > :10:18.oil resources better, Norway, in the last couple of weeks true down on
:10:19. > :10:24.its massive oil fund. The powers that independence would have given
:10:25. > :10:33.as and we did not vote yes, we have had -- we would have had ability to
:10:34. > :10:35.draw down on that faster. Why are onshore revenues growing less
:10:36. > :10:43.strongly in Scotland than the rest of the UK? That is a long-standing
:10:44. > :10:48.issue. One issue at the heart of that is growth in the heart of
:10:49. > :10:52.London. We are seeing a narrowing in some of the long-standing gap there
:10:53. > :10:57.has been between aspects of the Scottish economy and the UK economy.
:10:58. > :11:00.If we take productivity, for a long time Scotland lags significantly
:11:01. > :11:07.behind the rest of the UK. Over the past years we have close that gap is
:11:08. > :11:11.it that can leave. We still lag behind our European competitors and
:11:12. > :11:15.that is a problem. I am not standing here denying the challenges that the
:11:16. > :11:19.Scottish economy has. In the same way you have been talking about the
:11:20. > :11:23.Chancellor's budget and the same way the UK economy has challenges and
:11:24. > :11:27.across the European Union, they have challenges. There are real strength
:11:28. > :11:35.is in the Scottish economy. The real question should be how we build on
:11:36. > :11:42.and accents are the big strengths. Revenues per person in Scotland
:11:43. > :11:48.where ?10,700 in the years 2011, 20 12. They are now ?10,000, 700 ( even
:11:49. > :11:53.with the growth in revenues. The offshore has offset that. We still
:11:54. > :12:01.have a fundamental deficit problem. I am not denying we have a deficit.
:12:02. > :12:06.The UK has a deficit. Take revenues per head of population, which is
:12:07. > :12:10.what you decided to me there. In the most recent year, our revenues per
:12:11. > :12:16.head of population are broadly similar to the UK. In every one of
:12:17. > :12:20.the past 35 years, revenues per head of population have been higher than
:12:21. > :12:26.the rest of the UK. I accept we have a challenge in the North Sea. I
:12:27. > :12:29.accept that like all oil-producing countries, we have challenges about
:12:30. > :12:33.how we transition away from oil and gas over the years to come, though
:12:34. > :12:36.there is a great deal of attention in the North Sea. These are
:12:37. > :12:40.challenges we should embrace and challenges we should be working out
:12:41. > :12:44.how we face up to and address. Scotland is doing that and we'll do
:12:45. > :12:51.that on the basis of fundamental strengths in our economy. -- will do
:12:52. > :12:59.that. Scotland pays per capita about the same as the UK average. I am
:13:00. > :13:04.talking about the current year. What I am saying is, you cannot judge the
:13:05. > :13:08.economy in one year. It is similar in one year in 34 of the past 35
:13:09. > :13:14.years and has been higher. That is the
:13:15. > :13:15.years and has been higher. That is you are running a deficit, per
:13:16. > :13:17.years and has been higher. That is capita spending is so much higher
:13:18. > :13:19.years and has been higher. That is than in Scotland it is ?1400 higher
:13:20. > :13:25.public spending per than in Scotland it is ?1400 higher
:13:26. > :13:31.Westminster that is that build it is the difference between
:13:32. > :13:32.Westminster that is that build it is and what you spend. -- fits that
:13:33. > :13:39.bill. It is a deficit. The UK is in deficit in Scotland is in deficit.
:13:40. > :13:45.It is twice as big! In deficit in Scotland is in deficit.
:13:46. > :13:51.the UK deficit was twice as deficit in Scotland is in deficit.
:13:52. > :13:55.year. In terms of the point about per capita spending, there are
:13:56. > :13:57.year. In terms of the point about good reasons why someone who knows
:13:58. > :14:00.Scotland good reasons why someone who knows
:14:01. > :14:04.where one in five of the population lives in a row and remote
:14:05. > :14:07.where one in five of the population I was Health Secretary for five
:14:08. > :14:11.years. It cost more to deliver health services on an island or
:14:12. > :14:18.rural community than it does in Glasgow. Westminster pays for that,
:14:19. > :14:20.it makes up the difference. If you are independent you would either
:14:21. > :14:23.it makes up the difference. If you have to raise taxes or cut spending.
:14:24. > :14:27.What would it be? By how much would you raise taxes and cut spending? We
:14:28. > :14:32.set a budget in you raise taxes and cut spending? We
:14:33. > :14:35.every year. We make choices, sometimes these are tough choices.
:14:36. > :14:37.every year. We make choices, would do that as well. The point I
:14:38. > :14:42.independent Scotland would face challenges like other economies do.
:14:43. > :14:47.independent Scotland would face We're in a fundamentally strong
:14:48. > :14:51.position. Employment is higher than any other UK nation. Productivity is
:14:52. > :14:56.growing faster. We have a number of key strengths in the economy. One of
:14:57. > :15:02.the challenges is how we build on these strengths and get our economy
:15:03. > :15:03.growing faster. We have a number of world leading sectors in our
:15:04. > :15:14.economy. The fact is your deficit was ?15
:15:15. > :15:18.billion, moving with oil revenues at 2 billion last year. This year oil
:15:19. > :15:28.revenues are reckoned to be at zero so your budget deficit would get
:15:29. > :15:34.even worse. Two cut your deficit to anything like acceptable levels you
:15:35. > :15:40.would have to increase tax to 16% or cut spending by 14% or a combination
:15:41. > :15:44.of the two, what would it be? We would deal with the deficit in the
:15:45. > :15:53.same way the UK is dealing with the deficit and dealt in the deficit --
:15:54. > :15:57.with the deficit in 2009/ ten. We would be in the same position as
:15:58. > :16:03.many other countries but we would be in a position where we have got a
:16:04. > :16:08.fundamentally strong economy. I wish Scotland have voted yes in 2014, if
:16:09. > :16:15.it had done we would have spent the last almost two years preparing for
:16:16. > :16:20.Scotland becoming independent. In a negotiation around independence,
:16:21. > :16:24.there would have been discussions about assets, liability, the share
:16:25. > :16:29.of defence spending, so that's what would have been the case if we voted
:16:30. > :16:32.for independence. Looking ahead, we have a strong economy and the
:16:33. > :16:38.challenge is how we grow it even faster. You accept surely that you
:16:39. > :16:44.wouldn't be allowed to join the European Union with a 10% deficit,
:16:45. > :16:51.you would have to agree to Brussels programme, correct? We are getting
:16:52. > :16:55.into some ridiculous territory here and one of the most ridiculous
:16:56. > :16:59.arguments. Scotland wouldn't have been out of the EU, we wouldn't have
:17:00. > :17:04.been in the position of an accession state. It is a bit rich for anybody,
:17:05. > :17:09.given where we are right now, with the prospect of being taken out of
:17:10. > :17:15.the EU ahead of us, for scaremongering about the prospects
:17:16. > :17:18.of that. With two weeks to go until independence, instead of increases
:17:19. > :17:26.in public spending which you announced yesterday... They didn't
:17:27. > :17:29.vote yes. But if it had been, you would have been looking at the list
:17:30. > :17:35.of hospitals and schools to close, you would be the austerity party,
:17:36. > :17:38.that's what you would have to do. That's ridiculous. Countries the
:17:39. > :17:43.world over have deficits and deal with them. We would also have been
:17:44. > :17:51.taking on the greater powers to grow our economy, particularly our own
:17:52. > :17:56.short economy. Italy and Greece had 10% deficit and you know the
:17:57. > :18:01.austerity they had to go through. I think this argument starts to tip
:18:02. > :18:04.over into being incredible, we start to compare Scotland, with all of the
:18:05. > :18:09.strength of the Scottish economy, to countries like Greece and Italy. I
:18:10. > :18:12.have spoken about the fundamental strengths of our economy, not least
:18:13. > :18:17.the fact we have had the longest period of economic growth since the
:18:18. > :18:26.devolution. You have said all of that. Yes, we have challenges, but
:18:27. > :18:35.Scotland has a strong economy. Then why do your revenues like you're
:18:36. > :18:44.spending by ?2400 per person? -- lag your spending. We have a deficit
:18:45. > :18:49.like many other countries... Nobody has a deficit like Scotland's. We
:18:50. > :18:54.have a particular issue because of the fall in North Sea revenues. It
:18:55. > :19:02.is an indictment of Westminster mismanagement that unlike Norway, we
:19:03. > :19:07.don't have a massive oil fund to help deal with that. Westminster is
:19:08. > :19:11.paying for your deficit, Westminster is paying for the difference for the
:19:12. > :19:15.rest of the deficit, would you like to thank the rest of the people of
:19:16. > :19:20.the United Kingdom for making up for the deficit you have got?
:19:21. > :19:25.Westminster has a deficit of its own, it is ?1 trillion in debt. That
:19:26. > :19:32.is not the deficit, that is the debt. That is why I said debt, I
:19:33. > :19:37.understand the difference between deficit and debt, but it has
:19:38. > :19:41.accumulated debt of ?1 trillion, it has an annual deficit just like
:19:42. > :19:47.Scotland and many other countries do. It is actually 1.5 trillion,
:19:48. > :19:52.even worse than you think. I was being kind to them, Andrew! You
:19:53. > :19:56.should be kind because they are saving you quite a bit of money!
:19:57. > :19:58.Does Labour have a problem dealing with allegations of anti-semitism?
:19:59. > :20:00.The party is worried enough to have established an inquiry
:20:01. > :20:02.into the Labour Club at Oxford University
:20:03. > :20:05.where there are accusations that members used off-colour language
:20:06. > :20:08.And the Sunday Politics has been told that the investigation
:20:09. > :20:12.will look at new claims from another university.
:20:13. > :20:15.It comes after an activist with controversial views was allowed
:20:16. > :20:17.back into the party then promptly chucked out again last week.
:20:18. > :20:22.Does Jeremy Corbyn's support for causes like the Palestinians
:20:23. > :20:26.or Stop The War mean he's not tough enough when there are allegations
:20:27. > :20:29.It's seen that way by some students at Oxford.
:20:30. > :20:32.Last month the vice-chair of the Labour club there resigned,
:20:33. > :20:38.claiming some members had a problem with Jews and used words like Zio,
:20:39. > :20:41.a nickname for Jewish people that many find offensive.
:20:42. > :20:44.It's now being investigated by the Labour peer Baroness Royle,
:20:45. > :20:46.who is also looking at the wider issue of behaviour in
:20:47. > :20:49.We understand she's now extended her investigation
:20:50. > :20:52.to include students at the London School of Economics.
:20:53. > :20:55.This week, they have been electing a new general secretary
:20:56. > :21:01.One of the candidates, Rayhan Uddin, who's also
:21:02. > :21:04.in the Labour group, has been criticised for some
:21:05. > :21:08.Facebook posts that emerged during the campaign.
:21:09. > :21:10.In one, he talked about leading Zionists wanting to take over
:21:11. > :21:17.the student union to make it right wing and Zio again.
:21:18. > :21:32.Facebook post: of language, writing in another
:21:33. > :21:34.He has been referred to Labour's investigation
:21:35. > :21:38.into student politics by someone who now works for an MP.
:21:39. > :21:47.We've seen the letter they wrote, which said:
:21:48. > :21:57.Because it was an older generation of activists that came up
:21:58. > :21:59.at Prime Minister's Questions this week.
:22:00. > :22:02.I was completely appalled to see yesterday that the Labour Party has
:22:03. > :22:06.readmitted someone to their party who says, and I believe
:22:07. > :22:11.that the 9/11 suicide bombers, and I quote, must never be condemned
:22:12. > :22:14.and belongs to an organisation that says "we defend the Islamic State
:22:15. > :22:19.He was referring to Gerry Downing, who had also blogged
:22:20. > :22:23.about what he called the Jewish question,
:22:24. > :22:27.after being readmitted to the party this week he was resuspended.
:22:28. > :22:33.He reckons it's really a battle between different wings in Labour.
:22:34. > :22:39.Well, Dan Jarvis and these people of course, obviously there's
:22:40. > :22:44.the whole Blairite wing of the party and others, who have been absolutely
:22:45. > :22:46.disgusted at the membership and the left-wing surge
:22:47. > :22:59.in the membership and can't believe what happened.
:23:00. > :23:03.And do you think they are using race and religion as a tool for that?
:23:04. > :23:06.Whereas the Labour MP Wes Streeting says there is a problem
:23:07. > :23:10.I think in certain parts of the British left,
:23:11. > :23:14.there has always been a virulent form of pretty bigoted politics,
:23:15. > :23:21.particularly in terms of anti-Semitism, which has been
:23:22. > :23:23.an issue in some of our university campuses
:23:24. > :23:28.There's also a mentality which I think has been epitomised
:23:29. > :23:32.by the repulsive use of Mr Downing, which is not so much Stop The War
:23:33. > :23:37.People who seem to hate their country more than they hate
:23:38. > :23:43.And we have got to start sending a far stronger message that this
:23:44. > :23:46.is simply not acceptable in the modern Labour Party.
:23:47. > :23:49.Jeremy Corbyn's supporters, like those in the grass roots
:23:50. > :23:53.campaign group Momentum, say none of this is fair on him.
:23:54. > :23:56.Corbyn comes under the most incredible level of attacks and one
:23:57. > :23:59.of the things that he's attacked for is his long-standing commitment
:24:00. > :24:07.to anti-war, anti-imperialism, peace in the Middle East.
:24:08. > :24:09.And I think that's where some of this comes from.
:24:10. > :24:12.He does absolutely condemn anti-Semitism, he has time
:24:13. > :24:15.There is not a shred of anti-Semitism in his personal
:24:16. > :24:19.make-up, in his moral make-up or in his political make-up.
:24:20. > :24:29.And as for Labour's investigation into anti-Semitism among students,
:24:30. > :24:35.Let's speak now to the Labour MP, John Mann, who's chair
:24:36. > :24:40.of the All-Party Parliamentary Group against Anti-Semitism.
:24:41. > :24:47.Is there an anti-Semitism problem in Anti-Semitism Conference.
:24:48. > :24:50.Is there an anti-Semitism problem in the Labour Party? Of course,
:24:51. > :24:52.Is there an anti-Semitism problem in why these issues have got attention.
:24:53. > :24:58.It is not a big problem, why these issues have got attention.
:24:59. > :25:01.problem when it comes to racism needs to be dealt with. We have been
:25:02. > :25:07.here before. I can recall 30 needs to be dealt with. We have been
:25:08. > :25:12.ago when there were extremists trying to ban Jewish societies in
:25:13. > :25:15.some of the universities, and we clamped down on them very hard then
:25:16. > :25:21.and they weren't in the Labour Party but it is the same kind of people,
:25:22. > :25:25.the same ideology. Some of that has crept into the Labour Party and it
:25:26. > :25:33.needs to be removed. Why has it come back? People could write big
:25:34. > :25:38.academic books on why it has re-surged but what we have seen in
:25:39. > :25:44.history is that anti-Semitism never seems to go away. But why in the
:25:45. > :25:47.Labour Party has come back? People have obviously chosen to dissociate
:25:48. > :25:51.with the Labour Party in the growth of membership, some of those people
:25:52. > :25:58.have attitudes that are very outdated and prejudiced. There is no
:25:59. > :26:03.space for them in the Labour Party and the reason that is important is
:26:04. > :26:05.because I am getting young Jewish activists posturing whether the
:26:06. > :26:11.Labour Party is the place for them in terms of their support, their
:26:12. > :26:19.vote and their activity, and we cannot tolerate a situation where
:26:20. > :26:23.any part of society doesn't feel that a major political party like
:26:24. > :26:27.the Labour Party is not the place for them, which is why prompt
:26:28. > :26:31.effective action and vigilance on this is required, including from
:26:32. > :26:38.Jeremy as the leader of the Labour Party. Is the Labour leader doing
:26:39. > :26:44.enough? Or the fact he has talked about his friends, Hamas, Hezbollah,
:26:45. > :26:51.and shared platforms with people who have been very hostile to Israel and
:26:52. > :26:55.so on, is that a disadvantage? Is it encouraging anti-Semitism or is it
:26:56. > :26:59.not relevant? I have met Jeremy recently to discuss anti-Semitism in
:27:00. > :27:05.the Labour Party and it is clear to me that he does not tolerate or
:27:06. > :27:10.support it but what he has to do is follow that free with actions and
:27:11. > :27:15.ensure that others in the Labour Party follow it through with actions
:27:16. > :27:19.because the kind of thing, the atmosphere that is being created in
:27:20. > :27:25.Oxford University is not a one-off. This has been happening elsewhere as
:27:26. > :27:29.well. While these can be seen as small incidents, if you are the
:27:30. > :27:37.young Jewish person who is impacted by it, it is not small for you and
:27:38. > :27:42.it is magnified in the universities, which are pretty tolerant places and
:27:43. > :27:46.rightly so, if there is in tolerance to any particular group and to
:27:47. > :27:50.Jewish students. We are not prepared to have that in the Labour Party,
:27:51. > :27:54.there has got to be action, it has got to be led from the front and it
:27:55. > :28:01.has got to be decisive action. There is no space for these people in the
:28:02. > :28:06.Labour Party or is there space for people in any way excusing their
:28:07. > :28:12.actions. But there is an inquiry into what has been going on at
:28:13. > :28:16.Oxford, but is your party doing enough about this? Because I
:28:17. > :28:20.understand these inquiries may be subsumed into a much bigger inquiry
:28:21. > :28:27.into bullying and so on. What is your feeling? It is action by
:28:28. > :28:30.results. If there is a decisive action, there will be an almighty
:28:31. > :28:38.row which wouldn't be helpful but the idea that those of us who fought
:28:39. > :28:43.over decades, challenging anti-Semitism and other forms of
:28:44. > :28:47.racism, are going to accept other than the highest of standards in our
:28:48. > :28:55.own party, well I can tell you it is going to happen. There are many of
:28:56. > :28:59.us who will only accept absolutely the highest standards. We are not
:29:00. > :29:04.prepared to tolerate any form of anti-Semitism or any excuse for it
:29:05. > :29:09.in the Labour Party or anywhere else in society. But in our own party
:29:10. > :29:13.absolutely not and therefore there has got to be action, words are not
:29:14. > :29:19.good enough. Historically the Labour Party has done well from the Jewish
:29:20. > :29:23.vote. The Jewish vote over time has tended to vote Labour. If this
:29:24. > :29:30.anti-Semitism continues in your party, are you in danger of losing
:29:31. > :29:34.the Jewish vote? We prepared a report ten years ago on a
:29:35. > :29:38.cross-party basis that highlighted anti-Semitism in all of its aspects
:29:39. > :29:42.including from the right but also what was described by some as the
:29:43. > :29:47.new anti-Semitism on the left. It is not new but it had been dormant for
:29:48. > :29:51.a long period of time. People have been accustomed to the Labour Party
:29:52. > :29:59.and that part of the left being highly tolerant to everybody. That
:30:00. > :30:02.has got to happen, you cannot have a progressive party of any substance
:30:03. > :30:07.in politics if it allows any form of intolerance and therefore we are not
:30:08. > :30:12.prepared to have second-class citizens, second-class form of
:30:13. > :30:16.racism allowed in the Labour Party. Anti-Semitism has got to be
:30:17. > :30:22.challenged, including anti-Semitism on the left, and so robustly and put
:30:23. > :30:31.back in the dustbin again. That is my intention in the Labour Party. I
:30:32. > :30:35.am looking forward to Jeremy and the National Executive being decisive,
:30:36. > :30:38.removing the anti-Semites, going into where there is intolerance and
:30:39. > :30:43.explaining what is anti-Semitism and why we are not prepared to have it
:30:44. > :30:46.in our party. Thanks for joining us this morning.
:30:47. > :30:48.Labour's Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell ran Jeremy Corbyn's
:30:49. > :30:51.leadership campaign on a platform fighting not just austerity,
:30:52. > :30:54.Now though, he wants to be the new voice of fiscal
:30:55. > :30:56.responsibility, and says he's going to re-write
:30:57. > :31:00.In a moment we'll be talking to John McDonnell's number two,
:31:01. > :31:01.the Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury.
:31:02. > :31:04.But first let's hear what Mr McDonnell had to say
:31:05. > :31:07.It is a wider ambition then just Labour's fiscal credibility.
:31:08. > :31:10.I want to try to restore credibility to economic policy-making generally,
:31:11. > :31:13.not just within the Labour Party but across politics too.
:31:14. > :31:15.We have had too long, for example, the last six
:31:16. > :31:18.years we have had fiscal rules which have not been met,
:31:19. > :31:23.I am trying to encourage a better economic debate.
:31:24. > :31:26.What I have said is quite clearly, when we go back into government,
:31:27. > :31:29.we will eliminate the deficit, reduce debt, and will
:31:30. > :31:32.ensure that is supervised independently by the Office
:31:33. > :31:39.And Labour's Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Seema Malhotra,
:31:40. > :31:52.Welcome to the Sunday Politics. You would balance current spending with
:31:53. > :31:57.revenue and borrow to invest. How does that differ from Mr Brown and
:31:58. > :32:02.Mr balls? You are right about there being two key parts to the new
:32:03. > :32:06.fiscal credibility were all. In a sense, this builds on very much
:32:07. > :32:12.where we have been before. It also responds to the criticisms that were
:32:13. > :32:17.made of Jaws -- George Osborne's this school charter where he was
:32:18. > :32:22.criticised for tying his own hands and not allowing for investment. --
:32:23. > :32:27.fiscal charter. There are two key differences. It makes it more
:32:28. > :32:31.explicit, that there should be independent voices. We have said we
:32:32. > :32:35.want the OBR to be an independent voice around deficit reduction
:32:36. > :32:42.targets, and also reporting directly to Parliament. The second area is
:32:43. > :32:46.that we want to make sure there is the opportunity for investment and
:32:47. > :32:52.also, if there are difficult times, like we had in 2009, when monetary
:32:53. > :32:56.policy does not seem to be working, it gives an opportunity for fiscal
:32:57. > :33:01.policy to work alongside. It builds on but has two key differences. Mr
:33:02. > :33:16.Brown defended his rules as well when times got bad. It was described
:33:17. > :33:23.as being austerity light. This must be as well? It has been developed
:33:24. > :33:26.and the reason... It is not about austerity. It is a framework that
:33:27. > :33:32.will allow us to make spending and tax decisions in the future. It
:33:33. > :33:38.responds to the criticisms, the universal criticisms of George
:33:39. > :33:45.Osborne's this dull charter. -- fiscal charter. It says we need to
:33:46. > :33:50.invest for the future. I understand all that. Mr Brown and Mr Balls also
:33:51. > :33:56.wanted to invest and that was criticised by the Shadow Chancellor
:33:57. > :34:04.as austerity light. If that were austerity light, this is steroid to
:34:05. > :34:13.-- night as well. We're in a situation where George Osborne is
:34:14. > :34:21.blaming everyone but himself. -- this is austerity light as well.
:34:22. > :34:25.George Osborne's Member of Parliament for the Tory Party has
:34:26. > :34:29.said, what we have seen our warm words. He has talked about
:34:30. > :34:37.investment and an export led strategy. This is built on debts,
:34:38. > :34:43.household debt. How much is public investment? Around 30 billion, if
:34:44. > :34:49.you take into account the difference in spending. It is 34 billion in
:34:50. > :34:55.public spending at the moment. It should be much higher. How much more
:34:56. > :35:00.should it be? It should be higher. There is no excuse for what George
:35:01. > :35:06.Osborne has done. I am not asking about Mr Osborne. I am asking about
:35:07. > :35:11.your policy. 34 billion at the moment, rising to 40 billion by 20
:35:12. > :35:21.20. How much more would it be? It focuses on where it needs to be
:35:22. > :35:26.regarding GDP. You need to have a good level of investment so you are
:35:27. > :35:33.creating jobs for the future. What I am trying to work out is what this
:35:34. > :35:37.means in hard cash for investment, how big would investment be under a
:35:38. > :35:44.Labour government? It is clear that George Osborne has been cutting
:35:45. > :35:48.investment. It was around 3%, 3.5%, and is now 1.4% in terms of
:35:49. > :35:54.infrastructure. If you want jobs of the future coming through, if you
:35:55. > :35:57.want to turn around the situation where young people... By how much
:35:58. > :36:02.more would public investment increase under this formula? What we
:36:03. > :36:06.have said is you need to make sure that we have a balance of where the
:36:07. > :36:10.economy needs investment so we can get tax receipts and growth for the
:36:11. > :36:15.future. We had economists saying that George Osborne, if you talk
:36:16. > :36:21.about fairness in the future... I am here to talk about the labour policy
:36:22. > :36:25.and not that of George Osborne. Nor has there been balanced growth. If
:36:26. > :36:34.you want a balanced budget, you need to balance growth. Let's talk about
:36:35. > :36:37.labour. John McDonnell has talked about the difference between
:36:38. > :36:40.short-term and long-term investment. What is the difference? What we have
:36:41. > :36:45.said as she want to see investment that will see us having a big stake
:36:46. > :36:55.in the future. If you want to look at energy investment, you are
:36:56. > :37:01.talking out about -- about 20, 30 years. It is about supporting
:37:02. > :37:05.companies, entrepreneurs and supporting the long-term growth for
:37:06. > :37:08.the country as well. If you're talking about rail, roads and
:37:09. > :37:15.infrastructure, you will be aware, I am sure, of the reports that showed
:37:16. > :37:19.recently we have fewer buses than 2010, our rolling stock and trains
:37:20. > :37:24.are in poor condition, people are taking longer to get to work and the
:37:25. > :37:28.trains are more crowded. That should be a wake-up call to George Osborne
:37:29. > :37:32.he is not working in the interests of the British public and people are
:37:33. > :37:40.asking if the decisions are based on political interest and not on the
:37:41. > :37:43.country's future. You would balance current spending, day-to-day
:37:44. > :37:48.spending. At the moment there is a deficit. What would you cut to
:37:49. > :37:52.balance current spending? There are two things. The first is about
:37:53. > :37:57.spending decisions and the second about tax receipts. We are arguing
:37:58. > :38:01.that if you want to see tax receipts grow, George Osborne has seen them
:38:02. > :38:10.for in regard to productivity growth. What would you cut? We would
:38:11. > :38:15.want to see that growth increases in that you see an increase in tax
:38:16. > :38:22.receipts. You cannot spend if it is not within your means. What would
:38:23. > :38:25.you cut? You cannot spend if it is not within your means. What the
:38:26. > :38:29.announcement from the Labour Party is about is how we earn our way in
:38:30. > :38:32.the world and survived in a competitive economy. We will leave
:38:33. > :38:37.it there. Thank you very much. It's just gone 11:35am,
:38:38. > :38:45.you're watching the Sunday Politics. Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics
:38:46. > :38:48.in Northern Ireland. Coming up in the programme:
:38:49. > :38:52.Colum Eastwood gets a home town welcome, but can he face down
:38:53. > :39:05.the challenge of Sinn Fein? We've got our voices back and we are
:39:06. > :39:09.getting stronger by the day. The SDLP is back in the conversation.
:39:10. > :39:16.And our guests of the day after a fascinating week of politics
:39:17. > :39:19.are Professor Cathy Gormley-Heenan from Ulster University
:39:20. > :39:21.and Professor Pete Shirlow, Director of the Institute
:39:22. > :39:30.of Irish Studies at the University of Liverpool.
:39:31. > :39:34.'This party has a new feel and a new spirit about it.
:39:35. > :39:37.'We are a party full of new people and new ideas.' The words
:39:38. > :39:40.of the SDLP leader, Colum Eastwood, as he addressed party activists
:39:41. > :39:44.yesterday at their annual conference in Londonderry.
:39:45. > :39:47.So is this the moment the party's climb-back to the glory days
:39:48. > :39:51.We'll hear live from Mr Eastwood in a moment,
:39:52. > :39:54.correspondent, Stephen Walker, was in Derry to look
:39:55. > :40:02.at some of the key tests the new SDLP leader faces.
:40:03. > :40:10.The timing of this conference and the location is no accident.
:40:11. > :40:13.Political party gatherings generate publicity, and on this occasion this
:40:14. > :40:17.meant live television coverage on a Saturday evening. Two months away
:40:18. > :40:22.from these assembly elections, the SDLP hope this event will kick-start
:40:23. > :40:28.their campaign, and give them an electoral boost. So, after four
:40:29. > :40:31.months as leader, how should we assessed Colum Eastwood? The
:40:32. > :40:35.difficulty is that the SDLP didn't get much of the bounce by getting
:40:36. > :40:39.him as the leader, and they have improved, he is slightly more
:40:40. > :40:43.popular as a leader, but he has been overshadowed by Arlene Foster, and
:40:44. > :40:46.has a lot of work to do between now and the election if he wants to
:40:47. > :40:53.actually cement the numbers that he have, to grow, to get more seats. In
:40:54. > :40:57.May, he fights a fight in his own backyard. Martin McGuinness has been
:40:58. > :41:01.brought in as one of three Sinn Fein candidates in foil. They obviously
:41:02. > :41:05.think that bringing Martin McGuinness back to Derry is a great
:41:06. > :41:09.strategic move. I would have the same most people in Derry will be
:41:10. > :41:12.asking if that was the case then why he hasn't been representing the
:41:13. > :41:17.place for the last 20 years customer why now? There might be a bitter
:41:18. > :41:22.cynicism about that. So who will win this big political battle between
:41:23. > :41:26.Sinn Fein and the SDLP? To some observers, the result in this
:41:27. > :41:29.constituency inmate could end up defining Colum Eastwood's
:41:30. > :41:36.leadership. This is ground zero for the SDLP. If he can see Martin
:41:37. > :41:39.McGuinness off and Sinn Fein off here then he will have
:41:40. > :41:40.McGuinness off and Sinn Fein off victory on May five, maybe if they
:41:41. > :41:48.even lose other seats like in Belfast, the fact that Sinn Fein
:41:49. > :41:51.will have put the best man they have forward, and column has held with
:41:52. > :41:55.the seats, that will solidify his leadership over the next few years.
:41:56. > :42:02.So how many seats will they win in May? I think it is foolish to
:42:03. > :42:04.So how many seats will they win in their seat, and I know that the
:42:05. > :42:08.electorate will give us a chance on the 5th of May and we will see a
:42:09. > :42:13.number of us return. Are you worried your colleagues might use your
:42:14. > :42:20.seats? -- lose your seats is too have always worked hard to get seats
:42:21. > :42:26.in election. We have worked hard, and we hope that people will reward
:42:27. > :42:32.us for our efforts? What can he achieve? If he can hold onto the
:42:33. > :42:35.14th then he will be success. If he gains in Fermanagh, then so much the
:42:36. > :42:42.better, but he stands a past brick of going down to 11 seats, and that
:42:43. > :42:49.would cast a shadow over the future of the future. Last fight he won, it
:42:50. > :42:54.was the biggest of his life. This time the stakes are higher,
:42:55. > :42:58.Let's talk live now to Colum Eastwood from our Foyle studio.
:42:59. > :43:01.Thank you very much for joining us on the programme. Not surprisingly,
:43:02. > :43:06.you have a tub thumping on the programme. Not surprisingly,
:43:07. > :43:11.the party faithful for your speech last night was that had you expend
:43:12. > :43:14.that way your messages received less enthusiastically? I think have a big
:43:15. > :43:17.job to do doodle to be enthusiastically? I think have a big
:43:18. > :43:21.Yesterday was the start of that. The SDLP are setting out a new vision
:43:22. > :43:28.for a new Ireland and I think it was very exciting Derry. Anyone around
:43:29. > :43:30.Sun column's hall yesterday noticed the SDLP, noticed the buzz and the
:43:31. > :43:34.new field of excitement that we have. We are ready for a fight, with
:43:35. > :43:38.a huge new team of people, have. We are ready for a fight, with
:43:39. > :43:44.talented people, I can win seats right across the north and I think
:43:45. > :43:46.we will. We will begin to change our politics
:43:47. > :43:50.we will. We will begin to change our because people are fed up of
:43:51. > :43:52.we will. We will begin to change our years of unbroken DUP and Sinn Fein
:43:53. > :43:56.control of the Executive with very little being delivered so I think
:43:57. > :44:00.people want to see politics moving on to a
:44:01. > :44:01.people want to see politics moving accountability. You aim is anybody
:44:02. > :44:05.banshees in accountability. You aim is anybody
:44:06. > :44:09.Fein last night. You are of course fishing in the same pool for
:44:10. > :44:13.Fein last night. You are of course Only difference the FDA -- had you
:44:14. > :44:17.differentiate the SDLP and Sinn Fein? Our passion is
:44:18. > :44:25.differentiate the SDLP and Sinn Ireland work. -- making Northern
:44:26. > :44:29.Ireland work. Makes more sense than Sinn Fein's record in government.
:44:30. > :44:33.They have a poor record in charge. Nothing has happened in the
:44:34. > :44:38.government for nine years without the Sinn Fein and DUP agreement.
:44:39. > :44:42.They have cut university places, thousands of young people are
:44:43. > :44:45.leaving our shores to find work. 37% of the people going to university
:44:46. > :44:50.had away to Britain, and most never come back. That is the legacy of
:44:51. > :44:55.this executive, that the executives's legacy of the DUP. And
:44:56. > :44:58.Sinn Fein. We will invest in the economy, we invest in skills and
:44:59. > :45:02.infrastructure because we can understand that you can't build an
:45:03. > :45:04.economy based on one tax rate alone. With the greatest respect, your
:45:05. > :45:10.fingertips are all over the legacy of the Northern Ireland legacy of
:45:11. > :45:15.the last 20 years. Former leaders of your party have been finance
:45:16. > :45:19.minister, social development Minister, environment Minister... If
:45:20. > :45:24.you are found wanting in any of these clear areas, the SDLP is as
:45:25. > :45:28.lovable as anyone else. The SDLP were in government when things got
:45:29. > :45:32.done, but we did not pull down the Executive, it was other parties from
:45:33. > :45:36.other sides. We have now had nine years of unbroken devolution that is
:45:37. > :45:41.a good thing. I think anyone would however tell you that it hasn't been
:45:42. > :45:44.a delivery. It has been stopped start politics stop it has been
:45:45. > :45:47.about people making an argument about who should be First Minister.
:45:48. > :45:51.They don't deliver for Northern Ireland. We have had one ministry,
:45:52. > :45:55.and with that ministry we have done a lot of good things. We would like
:45:56. > :45:58.to have more influence in this executive, and that is why we are
:45:59. > :46:02.going to set out our stall and a manifesto very soon and one for
:46:03. > :46:05.election. We have an election, and we are going into a programme for
:46:06. > :46:14.government negotiation, and then we will see of the other parties are up
:46:15. > :46:16.for making the real change at Northern Ireland needs. Did you
:46:17. > :46:19.perhaps reveal your hands due to rate and extent in talking about the
:46:20. > :46:22.conditions that need to be met for the SDLP to go into the Executive
:46:23. > :46:26.based on signing up to the programme for government? You gave away your
:46:27. > :46:29.entire hand last night. I don't think I did. In fact you will see
:46:30. > :46:34.when we produce the manifesto in the coming week that we have a lot more.
:46:35. > :46:37.To ask of this programme for government negotiation. The SDLP set
:46:38. > :46:42.out very clearly last night that we want to see investment and
:46:43. > :46:46.infrastructure and skills, and the economy turning round. We want to
:46:47. > :46:49.stem the tide of emigration. We don't want to see our young people
:46:50. > :46:53.leave and never come back. That is what we want to see in this proposal
:46:54. > :46:57.for government. We have plenty more proposals. You named the specific
:46:58. > :47:04.present last night, showed us the colour of your money. He made it
:47:05. > :47:10.very clear that there was requirements for commitments to
:47:11. > :47:13.distribute in jobs, economic infrastructure, fiscal powers...
:47:14. > :47:17.What did you not tell us that we would have yet to hear? I think it
:47:18. > :47:24.would make no sense for us to go into the next mandate and say we
:47:25. > :47:26.weren't going to invest in infrastructure, University places,
:47:27. > :47:30.we weren't going to try the economy around, because it is not good
:47:31. > :47:35.enough that thousands of a young people use Billy Magaluf our shores.
:47:36. > :47:40.You have said that the background is shrinking is a and you want to make
:47:41. > :47:44.all these investments and critical and keeps you enter the executives,
:47:45. > :47:47.where will that money come from? But you will have the disinvest
:47:48. > :47:54.somewhere. We have large pot of money that we can use. What this
:47:55. > :47:58.executive is doing is spending ?700 million, ?700 million that should be
:47:59. > :48:01.used, ring fenced for investing in infrastructure but they are using
:48:02. > :48:05.that to get rid of civil servants. That is not the proper use of our
:48:06. > :48:11.money. It is happening, you can't stop it. Civil servants had been
:48:12. > :48:16.made redundant, left the employment, you can't get the money back again.
:48:17. > :48:19.The point is is that is one example about how the Executive don't think
:48:20. > :48:22.strategically about what they can do. This will be a negotiation which
:48:23. > :48:25.we look forward to, and the SDLP is running for government. We are
:48:26. > :48:29.putting forward a manifesto which you will see in the coming weeks
:48:30. > :48:33.that will be full of good strong plans for investing in the public
:48:34. > :48:36.sector, and the economy, and I think we will see the colour of other
:48:37. > :48:39.people's money at that point, whether they will be prepared to do
:48:40. > :48:47.this. This is a departure for politics in Northern Ireland. I
:48:48. > :48:50.don't think government so far has been good for politics. Let us talk
:48:51. > :48:58.about social issues come up on one particular issue that SDLP looks
:48:59. > :49:03.socially liberal a lot less than Sinn Fein. Let's take self Belfast,
:49:04. > :49:09.Claire Hanna abstaining on the particular issue in there. Fearghal
:49:10. > :49:14.McKinney dead toe the line. What does that say to a middle-class
:49:15. > :49:16.nationalist motor in south Belfast, someone unsure about voting for Sinn
:49:17. > :49:21.Fein, but is hearing a very mixed message from the SDLP? What
:49:22. > :49:25.precisely does the SDLP stand for? Well, when you look at what we did
:49:26. > :49:30.on that day, there was two amendments that were ill thought
:49:31. > :49:33.out, that legal advice told us wouldn't work, that doctors told us
:49:34. > :49:36.wouldn't be helpful to them. We decided we could not support those
:49:37. > :49:40.amendments at that time. That was quite clear, and we also said that
:49:41. > :49:46.we need to see guidelines to deal with the issue... Who got that right
:49:47. > :49:51.on that day? Who, Fearghal McKinney or Claire Hanna? The SDLP's position
:49:52. > :49:57.was clear. Claire Hanna was not wrong. There are many got it right?
:49:58. > :50:01.The party position is, and I'm telling you it now, as the party
:50:02. > :50:03.leader, the party position is that we could not support those
:50:04. > :50:06.amendments because they did not make sense legally, didn't make sense
:50:07. > :50:13.medically, and it would not have worked. So what is the voter to make
:50:14. > :50:16.of that? You say that the party position is what Fearghal McKinney
:50:17. > :50:20.adhered to as party leader, Claire Hanna did not, but you tell me she
:50:21. > :50:24.was not wrong. You can't have your cake and eat it. You are
:50:25. > :50:28.interviewing me and telling me my position with our position is clear.
:50:29. > :50:32.Maybe you should tell Claire Hanna because she doesn't seem to know.
:50:33. > :50:35.She does know. I have written to Martin McGuinness, Arlene Foster,
:50:36. > :50:39.Simon Hamilton was I have asked them to bring forward guidelines to deal
:50:40. > :50:43.with this issue and we are told they are coming. They have not come to
:50:44. > :50:46.the Executive yet, I look forward to them, because I think this is a very
:50:47. > :50:49.important issue, a sensitive issue and one that we need to handle
:50:50. > :50:54.sensitively, and we need to make sure that the Irish do their job
:50:55. > :50:57.properly was protecting life. -- Irish doctors. They may ask you how
:50:58. > :51:02.do you hope to turn around the juggernaut of nationalist votes
:51:03. > :51:07.moving from the SDLP to Sinn Fein under your leadership? Since 1998,
:51:08. > :51:11.your vote share has fallen from 22% to basically 14%. You have lost
:51:12. > :51:17.84,000 votes, and at the same time Sinn Fein has gained 35,000 votes.
:51:18. > :51:22.How do you turn that around? I think I set out last night that the SDLP
:51:23. > :51:27.has for a long time now spends too much time looking back. What we will
:51:28. > :51:30.do now is look forwards. We want is that adds a new vision for a new
:51:31. > :51:34.Ireland and to do that we started last night. People will come with
:51:35. > :51:39.us, and it is a long-term plan, I am under no illusions. It is a
:51:40. > :51:44.difficult challenge, and that is the way I ran for leadership. I think
:51:45. > :51:49.they can turn it around. I once people to see a renewed SDLP because
:51:50. > :51:55.they know when the SDLP does well, Ireland's does well. If you can come
:51:56. > :51:58.back with fewer than 14 seats, your leader shall be under pressure. This
:51:59. > :52:02.is a long-term plan. I think we will do well in this election, I would
:52:03. > :52:06.put numbers on it, but we are developing a long-term plan for
:52:07. > :52:10.these feature of the party and the future of the country and I look
:52:11. > :52:12.forward to doing that. What thank you for joining us.
:52:13. > :52:28.Cathy, did the fightback start here? Yes I think it did. I think that one
:52:29. > :52:33.of the things a party leader's stage is measured upon is how good they
:52:34. > :52:37.are as a rate. The delivery of the speech was much more than previous
:52:38. > :52:41.party speeches from the SDLP. There was a good thing. That is the
:52:42. > :52:46.optics. That is the optics. The public narrative with the SDLP for a
:52:47. > :52:49.long time has been old, dated, stale. There were a lot of young
:52:50. > :52:53.people there yesterday and I saw that myself. Maybe the public
:52:54. > :52:57.narrative is not necessarily keeping in step yet with the changes that
:52:58. > :53:00.the new party leader has made, and to pick up on the point about
:53:01. > :53:04.whether he had declared his hand too much in terms of what he would do
:53:05. > :53:09.with programme for comment, I think you do a very clear red line there.
:53:10. > :53:12.That we can assume that if Colum Eastwood and the party don't get
:53:13. > :53:16.what they want, from these negotiations on the programme for
:53:17. > :53:19.government, they will go to opposition and declared that had
:53:20. > :53:22.earlier because when the negotiations were going on and the
:53:23. > :53:27.changes were being made to John McAllister opposition Bill, they had
:53:28. > :53:35.a very influential role in that helping to the opposition. The SDLP
:53:36. > :53:38.would not have done if they hadn't gone into opposition seriously. Do
:53:39. > :53:41.you think declaring their hand in the way that they did last night was
:53:42. > :53:49.a wise thing, a masterstroke or a foolish thing to do seven or eight
:53:50. > :53:56.weeks from an election? Column will gaze at the minutiae. People don't
:53:57. > :53:59.vote for minutiae. He needs a very clear message on certain things, so
:54:00. > :54:03.if we had this ministry would stop this, or we would reduce waiting
:54:04. > :54:09.lists, or we would invest in universities. One simple message.
:54:10. > :54:14.Sinn Fein have a simple message. We a want a united Ireland, that their
:54:15. > :54:18.politic. The one thing he does have is that he is leading a generation
:54:19. > :54:22.that is very active, very clean, and will knock on doors, rally the
:54:23. > :54:30.support base that they need. His fundamental problem is unlike Sinn
:54:31. > :54:35.Fein he is trying to couch voting voters who are from a wide spectrum.
:54:36. > :54:39.He is also looking at a fundamental problem in terms of those that don't
:54:40. > :54:43.work. Those 35,000 votes that have gone to Sinn Fein... Those who have
:54:44. > :54:50.would be back was at once you go, you don't go back. The 35,000 that
:54:51. > :54:55.are still sitting out there, that he to capture. If you look at that
:54:56. > :54:59.group through statistics etc, that group sits right across the
:55:00. > :55:04.spectrum, pro-choice, pro-gay marriage, United Ireland, staying
:55:05. > :55:08.within the UK... He has to catch up a awful lot of people who think very
:55:09. > :55:12.differently. That is a real challenge for him, Cathy, he has to
:55:13. > :55:15.be all things to all members in Derry where Martin McGuinness is
:55:16. > :55:19.coming back to challenge him, he has due out green Sinn Fein, but where
:55:20. > :55:24.else where he wants to pick up transfers from moderate unionists he
:55:25. > :55:27.wants to extend the hand of friendship in that direction for
:55:28. > :55:31.that a difficult trick to pull off. They tried this in the past which
:55:32. > :55:34.ended up with just one minister in the Executive. The SDLP have a
:55:35. > :55:39.serious question facing them. If they want the possibility of having
:55:40. > :55:43.only one minister again, and we can say, well, you were part of the
:55:44. > :55:47.institutions, it's as much of your fault as the DUP or Sinn Fein's
:55:48. > :55:50.fault, lemon oratory partner in that executive the party will then have
:55:51. > :55:56.to consider do we want to do this all over again? Or do want to do as
:55:57. > :55:59.it every measure go into opposition, hold the two main parties to
:56:00. > :56:03.account, and then come back stronger in the next election? And you had
:56:04. > :56:05.the leader say that, that this is a long-term strategy. I don't
:56:06. > :56:10.necessarily think that they want to grab it by May. Very briefly, he's
:56:11. > :56:13.got 14 seats at the moment. Do you think he will come back with
:56:14. > :56:18.something in and around that, and how dangerous for him is it if he
:56:19. > :56:22.comes back with ten or 11? There is a lot of opportunity between now and
:56:23. > :56:25.May is for a bit of a bounce. He is articulate, confident, and you will
:56:26. > :56:29.be secure in that longer term strategy. He is catching a large
:56:30. > :56:31.electorate. They will be difficult. Let's pause for a moment to look
:56:32. > :56:45.back at the week gone past, The Republic has a new speaker, but
:56:46. > :56:51.still no sign of a government. The truth of the matter is is there a
:56:52. > :56:55.policy on ideological blocks against us entering a Fianna Fail
:56:56. > :56:59.government. There is a strategic block from Fine Gael entering
:57:00. > :57:07.government. At Stormont the Fed minister urges vigilance furs and --
:57:08. > :57:11.following recent dissident activity. The environment Minister apologised
:57:12. > :57:18.for comments he made about abortion at a women's event in Londonderry.
:57:19. > :57:29.His party colleague had enough of the affairs committee. Order, order!
:57:30. > :57:34.Order! The DUP Ian Paisley was fined for driving without insurance, and
:57:35. > :57:41.in County Derry, here where the Healy-Rae 's! There's no bride,
:57:42. > :57:44.there's no groom, there's not any engagement ring.
:57:45. > :57:45.Gareth Gordon there, featuring Peadar Toibin
:57:46. > :57:49.and the unmistakable Healey-Raes, and we'll stick with the story
:57:50. > :57:53.in the Republic, continually evolving day by day.
:57:54. > :57:56.Some say regardless of the many twists and turns, this has only one
:57:57. > :58:00.outcome, which is Fianna Fail and Fine Gael swallowing hard
:58:01. > :58:08.and signing up to serving together in a grand coalition.
:58:09. > :58:13.That's what my guests thing. Is that the inevitable outcome of the
:58:14. > :58:18.wheeling and dealing taking place at the moment? As you told us, Fianna
:58:19. > :58:24.Fail wants another election and they want it soon, and they want the
:58:25. > :58:27.basis to be there like success, and what they have seen in the last
:58:28. > :58:31.election was their return, Fianna Fail returning must more robustly
:58:32. > :58:35.than anyone expected. In several constituencies they could have
:58:36. > :58:38.picked up another seat. If he had another election, I think it is
:58:39. > :58:44.right, they would gain more seats, people see that they are back, they
:58:45. > :58:46.are confident, and have a role to play in Irish politics. That is
:58:47. > :58:49.important, but the issue is within the party is that there is an old
:58:50. > :58:54.guard which will not share file with Fiona Gale they want not to move
:58:55. > :58:58.forward. Increasingly, another election could be really on the
:58:59. > :58:59.cards. We will speak to Kathleen Justin a second.
:59:00. > :59:02.Let's hear what Lisa Chambers and Peadar Toibin had to say
:59:03. > :59:06.when I spoke to them about this on The View on Thursday night.
:59:07. > :59:12.There is a core chip happening between the two political parties at
:59:13. > :59:14.the moment, and for many members it will be unseemly for the two parties
:59:15. > :59:21.to get together too quickly. They will waiting period of time before
:59:22. > :59:24.they actually do that. There is a policy, and ideological block from
:59:25. > :59:29.entering a Fianna Fail government, there is only a strategic block for
:59:30. > :59:32.Fianna Fail and Fine Gael entering a government. Right from the start
:59:33. > :59:35.there has been a rotation of government, either Fianna Fail Fine
:59:36. > :59:38.Gael in government. They are worried that if two of them were to get
:59:39. > :59:41.together in government on this occasion that that will be the end
:59:42. > :59:46.of the process, that we would change politics in the south once and for
:59:47. > :59:50.all. That is one opinion and I would reject it categorically pulls up if
:59:51. > :59:55.that was the case, the two parties and address. For all sorts of God
:59:56. > :00:03.did reason, there are two parties not just because of policy. Largely
:00:04. > :00:06.to do with history. Our membership base is very different. There is
:00:07. > :00:10.still a government in place, there is no chaos out there, we have a
:00:11. > :00:13.decent government, continuing to do its work, and any pressing matters
:00:14. > :00:17.needing to be dealt with will be dealt with in the chamber.
:00:18. > :00:19.Interesting to hear those two very different perspectives on what is
:00:20. > :00:23.happening. Happy what are your thoughts? Having what we can do at
:00:24. > :00:26.this point is all we can do is describe at Billy Mager what will be
:00:27. > :00:33.happening was we don't know what will be happening in a few months. A
:00:34. > :00:39.grand coalition, a majority of Fianna Fail, a coalition... Belgium,
:00:40. > :00:45.I think holds the world record for not having a government for a length
:00:46. > :00:48.of 19 months at one point. 500 and something days. They were only
:00:49. > :00:53.forced out of political deadlock at the time because the international
:00:54. > :00:56.money markets and financial markets had basically indicated that they
:00:57. > :01:01.would downgrade the credit rating of the country if they didn't form a
:01:02. > :01:07.government. So it is a long time. In reality, just briefly Peter is that
:01:08. > :01:12.we could come back with add similar kind of numbers is and you wouldn't
:01:13. > :01:18.be any further forward. I think if they do business together, there are
:01:19. > :01:22.different structures. They are different level parties. You can
:01:23. > :01:27.fiddle about in the margins, but at some point there is Fianna Fail
:01:28. > :01:32.being more attractive in the past in terms of drawing people together,
:01:33. > :01:36.Healy-Rae's father was helping in the past four example. There is a
:01:37. > :01:38.potential for them to come and many more seats to do that. We will both
:01:39. > :01:43.see. They for years to come. Thank you very
:01:44. > :01:47.much indeed. Now it is back to Andrew.
:01:48. > :01:50.So, what's in store for us this week?
:01:51. > :01:52.Well, just the small matter of George Osborne's Budget.
:01:53. > :01:55.Another EU summit and the political diary's jam-packed with
:01:56. > :02:02.Let's hear more from our Political Panel, and we're also
:02:03. > :02:08.joined by the Conservative MP, David Davis.
:02:09. > :02:18.100 days to go. Where are we at the moment in this campaign? Just on
:02:19. > :02:24.polling, we are balanced with a large number of uncertainty. What
:02:25. > :02:29.has happened in the last few weeks has been dominated with the flow of
:02:30. > :02:33.events. Turkey has dominated peoples minds and that is what will happen
:02:34. > :02:39.for most of the next 100 days. Events like that will force people.
:02:40. > :02:44.Turkey is about security and immigration and so on. That is a
:02:45. > :02:47.potential backdrop. If the Turkish deal begins to fall apart and the
:02:48. > :02:51.migrant crisis continues, which almost certainly it will, that is
:02:52. > :02:55.the kind of backdrop that is probably more helpful to your side
:02:56. > :03:00.of the referendum than the other one? It is not an accident, a
:03:01. > :03:06.structural outcome of the Schengen zone and the weakness of the eastern
:03:07. > :03:11.border. On other fronts, the financial front, you have the Euro
:03:12. > :03:14.structurally driving events. It seems to me the balance of
:03:15. > :03:22.probabilities in the next 100 days will be those sorts of things are
:03:23. > :03:29.actually going to favour a Brexit. For years and years, Mr Cameron, Mr
:03:30. > :03:36.Osborne, Mr Hague and so on have been spewing out Eurosceptic
:03:37. > :03:41.dialogue. Now they praise our membership of the EU! We cannot
:03:42. > :03:45.survive without the EU. Doesn't that risk jarring a bit with the
:03:46. > :03:50.electorate? I think it is absurd. We have a situation where the Prime
:03:51. > :03:55.Minister gave a big speech at Chatham House. He said can if you
:03:56. > :04:00.could not get the reforms, he would consider the alternative. Everything
:04:01. > :04:03.was on the table. In two options can he would consider campaigning to
:04:04. > :04:10.vote to leave. Now we are told if we left Britain, virtually
:04:11. > :04:15.catastrophic. Plagues of locusts and we will probably all die. You cannot
:04:16. > :04:19.say in November I will leave if I do not get my reforms and now say our
:04:20. > :04:23.country will collapse. That cannot be true, otherwise he would have
:04:24. > :04:30.been willing to leave the EU and risk economic collapse. I think it
:04:31. > :04:37.is scare tactics by Project Fear and it has been very damaging. People
:04:38. > :04:41.like me want Brexit but it is very damaging to the Conservative Party
:04:42. > :04:52.and unity. Howdy you see the campaign going? It has been largely
:04:53. > :05:01.dominated by the Vote Remain rather than the Vote Leave. Vote Remain
:05:02. > :05:08.have chucked a lot at Vote Leave. Many reports have been pumped out.
:05:09. > :05:11.They are in danger of using up all of that arguments for the race has
:05:12. > :05:18.got going. It does look fairly balanced. Some polling has suggested
:05:19. > :05:24.it leans a little towards the remaining side. Whenever people like
:05:25. > :05:28.David or others say it is all Project Fear, for the silent group
:05:29. > :05:31.of people and families with children who are not paying that much
:05:32. > :05:34.attention, if you talk about fear at all, there is a slight sense of
:05:35. > :05:40.maybe there is something to be fearful of after all. It works a
:05:41. > :05:44.bit, I am sure it does, but for how long question that when the Danes
:05:45. > :05:48.had their Euro referendum, the same thing happened. Eventually people
:05:49. > :05:56.were going in for the mockery, as you were, saying we're going to have
:05:57. > :05:59.a 17 foot high fence between us and Germany. That destroyed the campaign
:06:00. > :06:04.for the one thing that has happened is the credibility of the Government
:06:05. > :06:09.are doing has slipped quite a lot in the last few weeks and it is partly
:06:10. > :06:11.because of the exaggeration. You have two friends getting slightly
:06:12. > :06:16.nervous of it, slightly afraid of it, worrying about the risks. On the
:06:17. > :06:22.other hand, they are starting to say, do we really believe all this
:06:23. > :06:28.nonsense? That is the undetermined fact. It has not been a reasonable
:06:29. > :06:34.debate about facts. Is it too early to see who has been nudging ahead?
:06:35. > :06:42.What is significant is that David Davis has a tie in the colours of
:06:43. > :06:53.Vote Leave. The other one is a green tie with black writing. This is an
:06:54. > :06:55.issue of taste. I think what we are learning is the Brexit side is
:06:56. > :07:00.winning skirmishes. The reason they are doing that is because they are
:07:01. > :07:04.an insurgency. With an insurgency, it has six Cabinet ministers in it
:07:05. > :07:09.and that is exciting. You will clearly set the news agenda. The
:07:10. > :07:14.battle in the overall war, you would assume that Remain is nudging ahead
:07:15. > :07:21.because the polling after the Prime Minister Pozner Diehl said voters
:07:22. > :07:26.were impressed by that. Vote Leave have an incredibly simple and
:07:27. > :07:30.incredibly powerful message. Take back control. You may well find that
:07:31. > :07:38.message is so simple and so clear that that might achieve a cut
:07:39. > :07:43.through. Is the queen on the Brexit side or not? I do not think anyone
:07:44. > :07:48.is questioning she is a Eurosceptic. Even at the palace they are not
:07:49. > :07:51.disputing that and the complaint may have made about the story in the Sun
:07:52. > :07:55.newspaper last week. People have said she has in making these
:07:56. > :07:58.comments for some time. Cabinet ministers have told me they do
:07:59. > :08:07.similar things. This woman puts the mother bubble things -- the
:08:08. > :08:13.Commonwealth above all things. She defends the laws and traditions of
:08:14. > :08:19.this country as well. Not Brexit necessarily but Eurosceptic? That
:08:20. > :08:26.seems incontrovertible. The palace and Number 10 are not disputing that
:08:27. > :08:30.at all. It is great to have the Queen onside but I would like her to
:08:31. > :08:42.have one vote. She does not have a vote at all. Is this more within the
:08:43. > :08:49.Tory family question is it more bitter than you thought? Will it get
:08:50. > :08:53.more bitter as time goes on? Even if Mr Cameron wins, he may find it hard
:08:54. > :08:58.to put it together again. I do not think so. It is robust, pretty
:08:59. > :09:04.robust. To some extent he sets the tone himself if he is rude about
:09:05. > :09:11.Boris, there is a backlash. Some say he regards Boris in the same way he
:09:12. > :09:21.regards Ed Balls. A scan and he cannot stop picking at it. This is
:09:22. > :09:26.outside the house and takes quite a lot of poison out of it. It is
:09:27. > :09:32.robust and fears. People are taking it incredibly seriously. How is
:09:33. > :09:36.Boris doing? Pretty well. What is his real value? He draws attention
:09:37. > :09:41.to the issue and adds credibility to it. He makes the odd mistake and
:09:42. > :09:50.everyone forgives him for it. On balance, very useful and important.
:09:51. > :09:54.What about cross-party appeal? The Government began by emphasising the
:09:55. > :09:59.security implications of staying in, saying we needed to stay because of
:10:00. > :10:02.security. I think they have found that a tough argument because people
:10:03. > :10:07.do not associate EU with security. They will move on economic arguments
:10:08. > :10:12.now. The problem with economic arguments is they are nowhere near
:10:13. > :10:18.well-defined as clear and cut -- clearly cut as they were in 1975.
:10:19. > :10:24.They want to make a big picture argument. David Cameron got this
:10:25. > :10:30.deal on the Friday in Brussels. At 7:30pm, George Osborne was on the
:10:31. > :10:34.today programme making a massive destiny economic security argument.
:10:35. > :10:38.They know you cannot focus on the nitty-gritty of that. You have to
:10:39. > :10:42.make the big picture argument. It is potentially a mixed picture. David
:10:43. > :10:47.was saying earlier there is a major crisis in the Eurozone in the next
:10:48. > :10:51.few months, then that could be difficult. You have the opt out full
:10:52. > :10:56.stop when you are in government, there was an opt out from Britain
:10:57. > :11:05.having to join the euro. There is a major crisis. Two European summits
:11:06. > :11:09.in one week. That was not the case when we voted in 1975. The common
:11:10. > :11:15.market was seen as a successful, economic unit that we needed to
:11:16. > :11:21.join. The atmospherics are very different. For 20 years, it was the
:11:22. > :11:28.most successful economic unit, until about the early 90s. Since then we
:11:29. > :11:34.have got nothing. That is what people are seeing. We are moving on
:11:35. > :11:37.to the economic arguments. We have the budget which frames it. They're
:11:38. > :11:42.going to see Barack Obama coming here towards the end of April.
:11:43. > :11:51.You'll be making the argument and doing several events, as I
:11:52. > :11:55.understand it. He owes him a favour. Basically, what you're going to get
:11:56. > :11:59.as a return to the security argument. Returning to where we
:12:00. > :12:04.started this debate, you have got a situation where events will often
:12:05. > :12:07.favoured the out side but the control and ability to stage managed
:12:08. > :12:15.different moments is with the governments. -- the Government. They
:12:16. > :12:22.published a letter with generals on it and have not signed it. One of
:12:23. > :12:26.the generals came out this morning and said he was supporting the
:12:27. > :12:32.Government. It is from the Scottish referendum playbook. That worked. We
:12:33. > :12:37.saw Nicola Sturgeon struggling an hour ago, to explain basic, fiscal
:12:38. > :12:40.point about an independent Scotland but that is why Scotland voted to
:12:41. > :12:45.stay in the UK. You do not know whether the Government will have
:12:46. > :12:51.that element of certainty. As things stand at the moment, are we in or
:12:52. > :12:55.out? The last time I was here I cautiously gave numbers. I would
:12:56. > :13:04.still cautiously stay in. Depressingly I feel we would remain.
:13:05. > :13:08.In with a suppose so vote. None of you overly enthusiast take. We are
:13:09. > :13:17.right on a knife edge in terms of public opinions. We live in a world
:13:18. > :13:21.where the consensus opinion these days is usually wrong.
:13:22. > :13:24.I'll be back next week, same time same place.
:13:25. > :13:31.Remember if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.