:00:00. > :00:41.Morning folks and welcome to The Sunday Politics.
:00:42. > :00:43.David Cameron says a manifesto shouldn't be a "wish list,
:00:44. > :00:49.He says he's been ticking off the commitments his manifesto made,
:00:50. > :00:53.Well, today we launch our own Manifesto Tracker and we'll be
:00:54. > :00:57.talking to the minister responsible for implementing it.
:00:58. > :00:59.The Government wants to crack down on the gender pay gap.
:01:00. > :01:02.But is it really as bad as everyone seems to make out?
:01:03. > :01:08.We'll be talking to TUC General Secretary Frances O'Grady.
:01:09. > :01:10.And we'll be asking who's wooing who
:01:11. > :01:13.in the putative Tory leadership contest?
:01:14. > :01:29.MLAs' expenses - has the Assembly Commission ignored
:01:30. > :01:31.a ruling by Stormont's independent financial watchdog?
:01:32. > :01:32.We'll hear from its chair, Pat McCartan.
:01:33. > :01:36.And the row over renewables - we ask who's to blame.
:01:37. > :01:39.And with me, as always, a match made in heaven.
:01:40. > :01:41.Nick Watt, Polly Toynbee and Tim Shipman,
:01:42. > :01:43.who'll be tweeting throughout the programme.
:01:44. > :01:50.First, this morning let's turn to the situation in Syria.
:01:51. > :01:54.A nationwide "cessation of hostilities" is due
:01:55. > :01:57.But, despite that agreement, the prospects for peace
:01:58. > :02:01.The truce does not apply to the battle against what Russia
:02:02. > :02:03.calls terrorist targets and means it will continue its heavy bombing
:02:04. > :02:10.Meanwhile, Turkey has shelled Kurdish positions in Northern Syria
:02:11. > :02:13.and the Turkish Foreign Minister has said his country is pondering
:02:14. > :02:18.This morning, the Foreign Secretary said Russia had to begin complying
:02:19. > :02:22.The situation in Aleppo is extremely worrying,
:02:23. > :02:24.the Russians are using carpet-bombing
:02:25. > :02:28.tactics, indiscriminate bombing of civilian areas
:02:29. > :02:35.Yes, we demand that the Russians comply with their obligations under
:02:36. > :02:37.international law and their obligations under the UN
:02:38. > :02:47.Security Council resolutions that they have signed up to.
:02:48. > :02:55.Nick, you get a feeling that given this deal was signed in Munich, it
:02:56. > :03:00.it is living up to deal is signed in Munich reputations. When we hear the
:03:01. > :03:03.Foreign Secretary saying we demand Russian do something when they are
:03:04. > :03:10.creating facts on the ground and we are not, that will have a hollow
:03:11. > :03:14.ring. Russia is now. President's Asad air force. They have ensured
:03:15. > :03:19.that President Assad cannot lose this war but he cannot also win it.
:03:20. > :03:24.They have the air force but no forces on the ground. Now that
:03:25. > :03:29.President Assad cannot lose this war has changed the dynamics. We can
:03:30. > :03:34.whistle in the wind as much as we like but Russia is the reality and
:03:35. > :03:39.power. Sir Roderick Lyne, the former UK ambassador to Moscow was on radio
:03:40. > :03:43.five this morning and he said we should not get too carried away with
:03:44. > :03:47.quite how powerful Russia is, they don't have troops on the ground,
:03:48. > :03:52.they have a faltering economy and they are nervous about going into
:03:53. > :03:56.far because of the disaster of Afghanistan 35 years ago. They do
:03:57. > :04:01.have some troops on the ground, they have proxy forces on the ground from
:04:02. > :04:06.Hezbollah and the uranium National Guard. Although they can't take back
:04:07. > :04:10.the whole of Syria, they will take back enough of it -- Iranians
:04:11. > :04:14.National Guard. Making success in the south, the border with Turkey,
:04:15. > :04:18.controlling the Mediterranean coastline. When they have done that,
:04:19. > :04:23.they might be serious about peace talks. Then they are stuck with it.
:04:24. > :04:26.It is not clear if Vladimir Putin thinks beyond tomorrow. It is not
:04:27. > :04:32.clear what the long-term strategy could do. It could be like the
:04:33. > :04:36.Russian invasion of Afghanistan, an absolute disaster. President Assad
:04:37. > :04:39.is saying that they intend to take over the whole of the country,
:04:40. > :04:45.entirely unrealistic. There will be some sort of partition. What is
:04:46. > :04:47.happening is very frightening in the sense that everybody is fighting a
:04:48. > :04:56.proxy war, the Iranians and Saudis. The one thing that people keep
:04:57. > :05:00.saying is Barack Obama was so weak that it is quite unclear what he
:05:01. > :05:04.could have done. Perhaps he could have given Syria's weapons to the
:05:05. > :05:10.more moderate rebels. Hillary Clinton wanted him to do that in
:05:11. > :05:14.July 2012. She put a plan together along with the general and he turned
:05:15. > :05:17.it down. What would have happened is that they would be shooting down
:05:18. > :05:22.Russian planes with American weapons. Or Russia might not have
:05:23. > :05:27.gone to war. We don't know. Everything has a dynamic to it. This
:05:28. > :05:31.dynamic is leaving the west pretty much as onlookers. It is clear that
:05:32. > :05:37.at least in the short-term, Mr Putin will get back enough ground for
:05:38. > :05:42.Assad to then say we have got rid of a lot of these "Terrorists" because
:05:43. > :05:46.they are not Islamic state. It is now asked versus Islamic State.
:05:47. > :05:50.Exactly, we sound like the mouse that squeaked this morning. I
:05:51. > :05:55.disagree with Polly. One of the great powers in the world has now
:05:56. > :05:59.got very involved in a situation and the other hasn't. President Obama
:06:00. > :06:05.had options. He did not explore them to any sort of extent that it put
:06:06. > :06:14.off the Russians. Britain is left on the sidelines, waiting for a new US
:06:15. > :06:17.president, to get engaged in this issue and do something proactive.
:06:18. > :06:20.What could have been done that would have been any use at all? Either
:06:21. > :06:24.useless or worse than useless, stuck us in there... He did say he had
:06:25. > :06:28.chemical weapons and it was an important red Line. And he let them
:06:29. > :06:32.cross the red line. He totally ignored it. What would you have done
:06:33. > :06:37.that would have been useful? You could have set up a humanitarian
:06:38. > :06:41.safe haven and protected it with force and armed the rebels to deter
:06:42. > :06:46.the Russians and make it a situation where Assad could not continue. We
:06:47. > :06:51.now have a situation where Assad is now a fact of life, he is not going
:06:52. > :06:55.anywhere. There is not much you can do without you were serious
:06:56. > :06:56.involvement. I am glad we touched on Syria, it is an important developing
:06:57. > :06:58.story. Now, what's black and white
:06:59. > :07:00.and not read all over? Even if you did read it,
:07:01. > :07:05.would you be able to remember all the promises and whether
:07:06. > :07:08.the Government had delivered them? Today, we're launching our very
:07:09. > :07:12.own Manifesto Tracker, which charts the progress
:07:13. > :07:14.of the pledges Sort of like a blue virtual
:07:15. > :07:18.Edstone, or maybe not! Over the next four years,
:07:19. > :07:26.we'll be monitoring the Government's progress on all of the commitments
:07:27. > :07:29.the Conservatives made ahead of the 2015 general election
:07:30. > :07:33.in their manifesto, and a few big promises they made
:07:34. > :07:42.during the campaign. So, we've identified 161 pledges,
:07:43. > :07:44.and loaded them into our Manifesto We've grouped them into categories
:07:45. > :07:51.covering all the major areas of Government policy,
:07:52. > :07:52.from the constitution And we've given each
:07:53. > :08:00.of the promises a colour rating. Red signalling little
:08:01. > :08:05.or no progress so far. Amber when the Government
:08:06. > :08:08.has made some progress. Let's start by looking
:08:09. > :08:14.at the Conservative commitments As you can see they've made at least
:08:15. > :08:23.some progress on all of them. Easily the party's biggest promise
:08:24. > :08:26.here was to hold a referendum on Britain's membership
:08:27. > :08:31.of the EU by December 2017. We've marked that amber,
:08:32. > :08:34.to show that some progress The bill setting the vote has passed
:08:35. > :08:40.through Parliament and it's looking likely the poll will
:08:41. > :08:44.be held this year. The cornerstone of the Conservative
:08:45. > :08:47.election campaign last May was how they would handle the economy,
:08:48. > :08:52.and as you can see, that's where we've found the greatest
:08:53. > :08:58.number of promises. Let's look at one of the policies
:08:59. > :09:01.they identified as part of their plan to
:09:02. > :09:05.eliminate the deficit. That was to reduce the welfare
:09:06. > :09:09.bill by ?12 billion. Again, we've given
:09:10. > :09:13.that an amber rating. The savings were outlined
:09:14. > :09:15.in the Chancellor's Autumn Statement But it's too early to say
:09:16. > :09:23.if they'll all be achieved. When it comes to the constitution,
:09:24. > :09:26.the Government's made some progress But it promised to scrap
:09:27. > :09:34.the Human Rights Act, and replace it That gets a red rating,
:09:35. > :09:40.as although there have been reports something is in the pipeline,
:09:41. > :09:43.as yet there is no sign of the legislation
:09:44. > :09:49.required to introduce it. Some manifesto commitments have
:09:50. > :09:53.already been delivered in full. Like the introduction of English
:09:54. > :09:56.votes for English laws to give English MPs a veto over laws that
:09:57. > :10:05.only affect England. Other changes promised in
:10:06. > :10:07.the manifesto are less well known. Like the promise to recover
:10:08. > :10:09.?500 million from migrants and overseas visitors who use
:10:10. > :10:12.the NHS by the middle We will give that amber,
:10:13. > :10:20.because some new charges have already been introduced,
:10:21. > :10:22.and the Department of Health Let's add on the rest
:10:23. > :10:30.of the promises in each of the policy areas and have a look
:10:31. > :10:32.at how the government Taken together, of the 161
:10:33. > :10:41.Conservative election commitments, we think ten are red,
:10:42. > :10:49.111 are amber, and 40 are green. We'll be returning to the manifesto
:10:50. > :10:52.tracker every few months, but in the meantime you can find
:10:53. > :10:55.the full data on the politics And with us now the Cabinet Office
:10:56. > :11:07.Minister and Paymaster General, Matt Hancock, he oversees
:11:08. > :11:17.the implementation Welcome to the programme, do you
:11:18. > :11:21.regard this manifesto as a contract with the British people and do you
:11:22. > :11:24.intend to intimate it all? It is certainly the commitments on which
:11:25. > :11:30.we were elected. We take it incredibly seriously -- goals to
:11:31. > :11:34.implement it. That is the goal. We have got about a quarter delivered,
:11:35. > :11:39.we have had less than a year. In fact, I really welcome this scrutiny
:11:40. > :11:46.and this project you have been on. We will implement and publish our
:11:47. > :11:49.own plans and make sure that each individual manifesto commitment has
:11:50. > :11:55.an individual minister responsible for delivering it. And publish that.
:11:56. > :11:59.We will nationalise you and this process. You will nationalise us? We
:12:00. > :12:03.can't afford you, probably, but we will do this as a government. Let's
:12:04. > :12:07.see if you still want to do that at the end of this interview. Your
:12:08. > :12:10.manifesto promised to scrap Labour's Human Rights Act and replace it with
:12:11. > :12:13.a British Bill of Rights, and abolition Bill would be drafted
:12:14. > :12:19.within the first hundred days after the election. It didn't happen. Why?
:12:20. > :12:24.The work is in progress. Internally, we will publish it. Why have you not
:12:25. > :12:28.kept to the timetable? The timetable of the whole manifesto is to deliver
:12:29. > :12:33.within the parliament. You said this would be done, the draft bill within
:12:34. > :12:39.the first 100 days. Clearly, we will deliver against the commitment. I
:12:40. > :12:44.thought it was a bit harsh to call that read, I would call that Amber.
:12:45. > :12:49.It is not delivered yet. We called it red because the justice minister,
:12:50. > :12:52.Mr Bove, said the consultation had been delayed yet again. The question
:12:53. > :12:58.is what we deliver over the five-year parliament. -- Mr Gove. We
:12:59. > :13:01.are less than a year in and we have got one quarter delivered and that
:13:02. > :13:04.is one where there is work in progress but we are committed to
:13:05. > :13:10.doing it. The manifesto promised to make the UK's Supreme Court "The
:13:11. > :13:15.ultimate arbiter of human rights in the UK". That will not happen. This
:13:16. > :13:20.is all part of the same package which we have committed to
:13:21. > :13:25.delivering. We are less than a year in and we have a few years to go.
:13:26. > :13:29.Whatever the package, the Supreme Court will not be "The ultimate
:13:30. > :13:34.arbiter" on human rights, will it? That is part of the proposed
:13:35. > :13:39.package, as part of the replacement of the Human Rights Act. We will get
:13:40. > :13:45.to that. There is a bigger picture, which is making sure that we deliver
:13:46. > :13:49.on the overall set of commitments in the manifesto where we are making
:13:50. > :13:53.good progress. But, you can enhance the role of the Cyprian Court on
:13:54. > :13:57.human rights, I understand that. Maybe the British Bill of Rights
:13:58. > :14:00.will do their -- Supreme Court. But at the end of the day, the European
:14:01. > :14:05.Court of Human Rights is the ultimate arbiter. That is the
:14:06. > :14:08.factual legal situation. It all depends on the changes that you
:14:09. > :14:12.make. We will bring forward a package of changes to be able to
:14:13. > :14:17.deliver against these commitments in the Parliament. Mr Gove says we are
:14:18. > :14:20.not planning to derogate from the European Court of Human Rights.
:14:21. > :14:24.Let's see what happens when we published the proposals on this
:14:25. > :14:29.particular package. Immigration, probably your biggest fail, I would
:14:30. > :14:33.suggest. The 2050 manifesto repeated the pledge in the 2010 manifesto to
:14:34. > :14:37.get annual net migration down to tens of thousands -- 2015. After
:14:38. > :14:43.five years, far from getting it down, net migration reached a record
:14:44. > :14:50.336,000 last year, that is a spectacular failure. Clearly, this
:14:51. > :14:54.is a commitment. To get immigration down to tens of thousands, that
:14:55. > :15:02.remains the goal. But we haven't yet reached it. Presumably you did not
:15:03. > :15:06.call that green. No. It is red. That the commitment remains because we
:15:07. > :15:09.think it is reasonable to control immigration in this country, so that
:15:10. > :15:13.while some immigration can be very good for the economy and more
:15:14. > :15:17.broadly, actually it has got to be done at a reasonable level.
:15:18. > :15:23.It's not just that you didn't get it down enough, it's actually risen
:15:24. > :15:27.since you came to power. Why would you promise what you have failed
:15:28. > :15:33.dismally to deliver again? I think it is a reasonable goal. Clearly we
:15:34. > :15:40.put it in the manifesto for a reason, to get immigration down. And
:15:41. > :15:44.we are less than a year into the Parliament and we've got four years
:15:45. > :15:49.to go. Is it a goal or a pledge? Do you pledge to the British people
:15:50. > :15:54.today that net migration will be down to the tens of thousands by
:15:55. > :15:58.2020? Well I pledge to fulfil what was in the manifesto on which I and
:15:59. > :16:03.every other Conservative MPs was elected. Well that pledge was to get
:16:04. > :16:09.it down to the tens of thousands. It was meant to be in the tens of
:16:10. > :16:14.thousands by 2015, it is 346,000, is there a pledge that it will be down
:16:15. > :16:18.to the tens of thousands by 2020? There is a whole series of actions
:16:19. > :16:23.that we are taking, not least the EU renegotiation to try to tackle
:16:24. > :16:27.immigration and make sure that it's brought down to a reasonable level.
:16:28. > :16:32.Again there is a broader point, of the 160 odd commitments that you are
:16:33. > :16:36.measuring, delivering an accord of them, of course some are quicker
:16:37. > :16:39.than others to deliver on, it's fair to say. But the whole point of
:16:40. > :16:45.having the manifesto and tracking it as we are doing is to make sure we
:16:46. > :16:52.know where we are up to. Lets come onto the European negotiations, that
:16:53. > :16:56.was in the manifesto. The manifesto promised several key things in the
:16:57. > :17:01.renegotiation, a four-year ban on EU migrants claiming in work benefits,
:17:02. > :17:05.a new residency requirement for social housing, and no child benefit
:17:06. > :17:12.for EU migrants if their children live abroad. The draft deal contains
:17:13. > :17:18.none of these things. Well, firstly, as you say, the centrepiece of our
:17:19. > :17:21.European policy was to have the referendum, and we will be having
:17:22. > :17:24.the referendum. Although you call that Amber it is certainly going to
:17:25. > :17:27.happen. I understand that but none of the things you said we would get
:17:28. > :17:38.to vote on in this referendum have been delivered. We then sat out --
:17:39. > :17:41.set out what we wanted to negotiate and that negotiation is not
:17:42. > :17:45.complete. We have a lot of work to do this week to get the best
:17:46. > :17:48.possible deal we can. I hope we will have a good deal and be able to vote
:17:49. > :17:55.to stay in a reformed Europe. There is a version of the ban on EU
:17:56. > :17:59.migrants benefits, there is not no child benefits, now there will be 28
:18:00. > :18:03.different child benefits that Britain will pay but there is no
:18:04. > :18:09.mention of residency requirement for social housing, no mention of that
:18:10. > :18:12.in the deal, so that has gone? Look, we don't know the outcome of this
:18:13. > :18:16.negotiation until the end of this week. There is a week of hard work
:18:17. > :18:22.to get the deal. But there is a bigger picture here. Social housing
:18:23. > :18:28.is not on the agenda? Let's see what we get in this deal over the next
:18:29. > :18:32.week. But there's a bigger point here, which is that we said we'd
:18:33. > :18:35.have the renegotiation, lots and lots of people said you are never
:18:36. > :18:40.going to get these things on the table. A question of in work
:18:41. > :18:44.benefits, child benefit, we were told you couldn't even put that on
:18:45. > :18:49.the agenda. The discussion in Europe this week is exactly how far we go
:18:50. > :18:51.on those. People said that we couldn't deliver anything in this
:18:52. > :18:56.space and we've managed to deliver already the draft deal, and we will
:18:57. > :19:00.see where we end up. But not what was in the manifesto. We will see
:19:01. > :19:04.where we end up at the end of this week. We will indeed. Not
:19:05. > :19:08.necessarily next week but in the weeks ahead we will be coming back
:19:09. > :19:11.to go through this. Onto the economy, you put in place a charter
:19:12. > :19:17.for budget responsibility which commits you to running a surplus, a
:19:18. > :19:20.legal obligation as well as a policy. The in situ for fiscal
:19:21. > :19:23.studies says that will require tax rises or spending cuts as yet
:19:24. > :19:28.unannounced, do you agree? Not in the latest financial forecast put
:19:29. > :19:31.out by the office for budget responsible to who independently
:19:32. > :19:35.advise on these, and we have a budget in just over a month's time
:19:36. > :19:38.so we will see what the figures say, then. Clearly in the latest forecast
:19:39. > :19:46.from the government, yes, we have that surplus. You have not hit a
:19:47. > :19:52.surplus. We have hit it in the forecast. And they change. They do,
:19:53. > :19:58.as the economy changes. On that economic front there was an awful
:19:59. > :20:01.lot in the manifesto on that, it is all about economic security,
:20:02. > :20:05.generating jobs, in the same way that the national Security ones were
:20:06. > :20:08.all about national security. And those were the two elements at the
:20:09. > :20:13.heart of this manifesto that we were elected on. I would say that we are
:20:14. > :20:17.delivering very strongly on both. In terms of the big picture of what you
:20:18. > :20:21.are getting from the message that we said we were going to deliver. Let
:20:22. > :20:24.me come down to the smaller but still very important picture. You
:20:25. > :20:29.have a legal obligation to reach a surplus by 2020. If, to reach that
:20:30. > :20:36.surplus, you had to raise taxes, would you? Look, much as I'd love
:20:37. > :20:41.to, I'm not going to set out tax policy on Sunday morning. To meet
:20:42. > :20:44.the legal obligation, if it required tax increases, would there be tax
:20:45. > :20:48.increases? We've set out the plans and the plans hit a surplus. We did
:20:49. > :20:54.that in the Autumn Statement in November. Clearly the economy
:20:55. > :20:57.changes all the time, internationally, people have seen
:20:58. > :21:03.falls in the stock market in the last few months. But we will have a
:21:04. > :21:07.budget in more than a month's time. But I voted to have that surplus and
:21:08. > :21:13.that is clearly what we will set out to do. You promised a lower tax
:21:14. > :21:19.society. Yes. Yet on the forecast, the overall tax burden is rising as
:21:20. > :21:23.a percentage of GDP and on the forecast, not the buoyancy but extra
:21:24. > :21:26.tax that you have introduced will be ?50 billion higher. So you have
:21:27. > :21:30.previous on this, you could raise taxes again because you already
:21:31. > :21:36.have? Clearly there are some areas where we have tightened things up,
:21:37. > :21:43.especially on tax avoidance. We took an extra ?5 billion from tax
:21:44. > :21:45.avoidance measures. And what about the billions in addition to that? We
:21:46. > :21:50.have reduced the tax burden especially on people in lower wage
:21:51. > :21:53.jobs, they are going to get the national minimum wage but we are
:21:54. > :21:57.well on the way to the manifesto commitment of making sure you don't
:21:58. > :22:03.have to pay any income taxed until you make ?12,500. We have made
:22:04. > :22:07.progress but there is more to do. The manifesto talks about reducing
:22:08. > :22:12.the tax relief on pension contributions for people earning
:22:13. > :22:20.more than ?150,000, people on 45%, the highest income tax band, you are
:22:21. > :22:23.going to cut tax relief on their pension contributions. If you were
:22:24. > :22:30.to also cut the tax relief of those on the 40% rate, that would be
:22:31. > :22:33.breaching the manifesto? There we've done what we said we would do in the
:22:34. > :22:39.manifesto. We've followed the manifesto clearly in terms of the
:22:40. > :22:43.commitment that it made. Outside the manifesto there's always going to be
:22:44. > :22:48.other things that you do. On pension tax review were explicit that it
:22:49. > :22:52.would be those in the 45% wouldn't get it, you didn't mention any other
:22:53. > :22:58.bracket, the imprecation is that it's only the 45%. If you took away
:22:59. > :23:02.tax relief from the 40% taxpayers that would be broken manifesto
:23:03. > :23:07.commitment? That's not how I see it, you can add things to the manifesto.
:23:08. > :23:10.Look at the whole reform programme a massive reform programme which was
:23:11. > :23:14.not in our manifesto because we've built it up as a proposal since
:23:15. > :23:21.then. Likewise the Prime Ministerspeech on social mobility
:23:22. > :23:27.and an tackling an just inequalities -- an just inequalities. We've done
:23:28. > :23:33.a huge amount of that on the autumn. Delivering on the manifesto
:23:34. > :23:36.commitments is absolutely essential. But it is not the only thing you do
:23:37. > :23:41.in government because you respond to events. But the purpose of this
:23:42. > :23:45.interview is to hold your manifesto to account. Hunting, when will you
:23:46. > :23:49.give Parliament the chance to repeal the hunting act. We are committed to
:23:50. > :23:55.doing that. When? In this Parliament. We looked at doing it
:23:56. > :24:00.early on. You dropped that. We decided not to do it then, but we
:24:01. > :24:03.are committed to its. You set a target of ?1 trillion of exports by
:24:04. > :24:11.2020, most forecasters including your own oh BR say you will be at
:24:12. > :24:15.least ?350 billion short. Can we agree that you will not hit that
:24:16. > :24:21.target? It's fair to say that it is stretching target, but it remains
:24:22. > :24:28.our target, our aspiration. But you will miss it. There is an awful lot
:24:29. > :24:32.of work going into achieving it. Thank you for that, come back and we
:24:33. > :24:33.will see the progress in the months ahead. Look forward to it.
:24:34. > :24:36.And remember if you want to see how the government is doing
:24:37. > :24:39.in detail our manifesto tracker is available for you to peruse
:24:40. > :24:46.On Friday, new measures to tackle the pay gap between genders
:24:47. > :24:56.From 2018, companies with more than 250 employees will have
:24:57. > :24:59.to publish the differences in salary between men and women.
:25:00. > :25:01.Businesses failing to address the problem will be named
:25:02. > :25:05.Here's what Women and Equalities Minister Nicky Morgan had to say.
:25:06. > :25:08.Transparency about the gender pay gap in companies and public sector
:25:09. > :25:14.organisations is going to be very important in driving behaviour.
:25:15. > :25:18.So we are going to require companies, under the regulations,
:25:19. > :25:20.companies of over 250 employees, to publish their gender pay gap
:25:21. > :25:29.We, as a government, will then compile those league tables.
:25:30. > :25:31.It will be two fold, one, companies will hopefully,
:25:32. > :25:35.and we expect from the response we have,
:25:36. > :25:38.to think a lot harder about where women are in their workforce.
:25:39. > :25:40.How they are distributed, what they are being paid.
:25:41. > :25:43.But it will also drive applications to work in certain
:25:44. > :25:46.organisations because I think women will look and see what is the gender
:25:47. > :25:48.pay gap in this organisation and is this somewhere
:25:49. > :25:52.And with us now, General Secretary of the TUC, Frances O'Grady.
:25:53. > :26:01.Welcome back. We know there is a gender pay gap. In some age groups,
:26:02. > :26:04.not all, but still in some age groups. Where is the evidence that
:26:05. > :26:12.it is a result of dissemination, of employers not paying properly, as
:26:13. > :26:19.opposed to lifestyle and choices? We still do have this pretty crazy
:26:20. > :26:24.situation where women have Giroud and 80p for everyone pound that men
:26:25. > :26:28.do across the economy. -- where women earn 80p for every pound that
:26:29. > :26:33.men do. This is a welcome step, this initiative, but it is a very small
:26:34. > :26:36.step. It is about reporting, not about telling us why this is going
:26:37. > :26:40.on, not coming up with actions to deal with it. When you dig down from
:26:41. > :26:44.the headline figure, and you have just used one, you begin to see some
:26:45. > :26:48.quite deep-seated cultural issues, not just a matter of economics. The
:26:49. > :26:52.labour market study shows that men tend to work in occupations that pay
:26:53. > :26:57.more, that's been a historic thing. And women in jobs that pay less. For
:26:58. > :27:01.example men in construction, women in retail. Men in computer
:27:02. > :27:06.programming, women in nursing. That is one of the explanations for the
:27:07. > :27:12.page gap. There is certainly still big job separation, but one of the
:27:13. > :27:18.questions we must ask is, is it case of equal values? People paying for
:27:19. > :27:25.the work of equal value. It is illegal to pay anybody less than a
:27:26. > :27:31.man is getting or vice versa, equal pay for equal jobs. For example, why
:27:32. > :27:35.is looking after children considered to be less valuable than mending a
:27:36. > :27:39.car? The problem is, in order for women to prove it, they've got to be
:27:40. > :27:41.able to take employment tribunal claims, and of course we've seen
:27:42. > :27:46.this government introduce very significant fees that have massively
:27:47. > :27:51.reduced the number of women being able to take pay and six
:27:52. > :27:56.dissemination claims. Is on the gender pay gap really a generational
:27:57. > :28:00.matter, and it might be resolving itself? I'd like to show you this
:28:01. > :28:05.chart, here, which looks at different age groups. For women aged
:28:06. > :28:09.40 to 49, there is a gap, it's coming down but there is still a
:28:10. > :28:13.substantial gap. For younger women in the 22 to 29, there is no pay
:28:14. > :28:17.gap, indeed there is some evidence now that the gender pay gap is the
:28:18. > :28:24.other way among younger people than it is amongst men. What I think it
:28:25. > :28:30.shows you is that the real problem kicks in when women have babies.
:28:31. > :28:33.Yes. That's when women are much more likely to work part-time, much more
:28:34. > :28:37.likely to need nurseries, and as we get older and we are looking after
:28:38. > :28:43.elderly parents, too. Elder care as well. Some of those public service
:28:44. > :28:47.cuts are hitting our sure start centres and care for the elderly. I
:28:48. > :28:52.think you hit on something, there. You can begin to see the return of
:28:53. > :28:56.the gender pay gap as women hit their late 20s or early 30s, because
:28:57. > :29:02.the average age that women have their first child is 28 and a half.
:29:03. > :29:05.So that suggests that the policy response will have to be quite
:29:06. > :29:10.sophisticated to get rid of a later developing pay gap. Stopping cuts on
:29:11. > :29:14.this is would help but also helping dads as well. A lot of men nowadays
:29:15. > :29:19.want to be more involved with their children but they need more paid
:29:20. > :29:25.paternity to be able to do that. I want to show you another chart that
:29:26. > :29:31.suggests there are developers. This shows you a figure that is not
:29:32. > :29:35.widely known, there are now every year 100,000 more women applying for
:29:36. > :29:41.university than men. 100,000 more. Women from poor backgrounds are 50%
:29:42. > :29:45.more likely to go to university than men. Women now take most of the
:29:46. > :29:51.first in medicine and law, two professions that are pretty well
:29:52. > :29:55.paid. Again, isn't this sense that, even in the later years, now, the
:29:56. > :29:59.gender pay gap could begin to resolve itself?
:30:00. > :30:06.I really hope so the TUC analysis shows that at this rate of change it
:30:07. > :30:13.would take another 45 years. No, I looked at these figures. Frances
:30:14. > :30:19.O'Grady, you took one year of the pay gap, which strode it came down
:30:20. > :30:24.by 0.2%. Dodt which showed. If you had taken the last ten years it
:30:25. > :30:29.still takes too long but it is not 47 years, that was a propaganda
:30:30. > :30:34.figure. You can't do a trend on one year. Most people agree we need bold
:30:35. > :30:38.action to change it. Given we have agreed that it is a complicated
:30:39. > :30:42.picture and now becomes an issue primarily for women who have taken
:30:43. > :30:47.time off and then go back into the workforce again, get me one thing
:30:48. > :30:51.that the government could do that would stop this gender pay gap
:30:52. > :30:57.re-emerging in their 30s and 40s? Stop cuts to nurseries. Provide a
:30:58. > :31:01.proper system of care for old people, that allows women and men to
:31:02. > :31:05.combine those caring responsibilities with a responsible
:31:06. > :31:09.job. That is what would really make... I can see how it would help.
:31:10. > :31:12.It is about progression and people feeling they can go for that
:31:13. > :31:16.promotion or training course that would get them a better job. And
:31:17. > :31:21.having the confidence to do it, that their life won't fall apart if they
:31:22. > :31:26.tried. If the TUC wanted to be ahead of the curve, should you not now be
:31:27. > :31:30.giving a lot more attention to the growing underperformance of young
:31:31. > :31:33.males, particularly from poorer backgrounds in education and the
:31:34. > :31:40.workforce? That is a looming problem. Believe you me, we do, we
:31:41. > :31:43.do. We've been fighting very hard for not just more apprenticeships
:31:44. > :31:48.but real quality apprenticeships. Equal opportunities for all. That
:31:49. > :31:52.would help. There are a lot of young men who want to be as involved in
:31:53. > :31:57.bringing up their children as their partners do. Why doesn't the TUC
:31:58. > :32:01.practice what it preaches when it comes to gender equality? Only three
:32:02. > :32:06.of the largest ten unions are led by women even though most unions have a
:32:07. > :32:10.female majority membership. Being a national offices in the unions are
:32:11. > :32:15.lower than the percentage of the night union members. Eight out of
:32:16. > :32:19.ten. And seven out of ten unions have women where they are
:32:20. > :32:23.significantly underrepresented on the national executive. Of the TUC
:32:24. > :32:27.delegation is. Even though women are majority membership. As you know,
:32:28. > :32:30.the picture has changed dramatically over the last few years. We do just
:32:31. > :32:32.have over the last few years. We do just
:32:33. > :32:38.have three in ten union leaders elected on average. That is a big
:32:39. > :32:42.change, it is a lot better than the board room and a hell of a lot
:32:43. > :32:52.better than many sat around the Cabinet table. It is still not that
:32:53. > :33:01.great. 74% female membership. Only 70% full time. 75% TUC delegation
:33:02. > :33:06.and only 28 on the TUC. Led by a woman general secretary. You have a
:33:07. > :33:10.way to go. For the first time in history it is 50-50. We are
:33:11. > :33:14.committed. We want to work with businesses who want to make that
:33:15. > :33:18.change. I am delighted to say. He loves unions. Thank you.
:33:19. > :33:20.It's just gone 11:30am, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
:33:21. > :33:23.We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now
:33:24. > :33:33.Coming up here in 20 minutes, The Week Ahead.
:33:34. > :33:36.Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics in Northern Ireland.
:33:37. > :33:39.The Assembly Commission clears Sinn Fein
:33:40. > :33:41.of any wrongdoing over expenses claims -
:33:42. > :33:42.but Stormont's independent watchdog isn't happy.
:33:43. > :33:46.We'll hear from the chair of the Independent Financial Review Panel.
:33:47. > :33:49.Plus a row over renewables - why is a green energy incentive
:33:50. > :33:53.scheme set to burn such a large hole in the Economy Minister's budget?
:33:54. > :33:56.And with their thoughts on all of that and much more,
:33:57. > :34:07.my guests of the day are Newton Emerson and Allison Morris.
:34:08. > :34:08.The Assembly Commission has found Sinn Fein MLAs
:34:09. > :34:12.who claimed almost ?700,000 in expenses for research
:34:13. > :34:17.from a company run by the party's finance managers did nothing wrong.
:34:18. > :34:22.The expense claims were one of a number of issues highlighted
:34:23. > :34:28.set up to make determinations on MLAs' salaries and allowances
:34:29. > :34:30.says he's concerned by the the findings.
:34:31. > :34:33.We'll hear from Pat McCartan in just a moment,
:34:34. > :34:41.but first here's our political correspondent, Stephen Walker.
:34:42. > :34:49.The Spotlight programmes work broadcast in November 20 14. One of
:34:50. > :34:53.the ABC programmes reported that Sinn Fein MLA 's kind about ?700,000
:34:54. > :35:02.in total through Stormont expenses to pay a research service, RSI, over
:35:03. > :35:07.a 10-year period. The programme makers were not able to find any
:35:08. > :35:10.research carried out by RSI and one Sinn Fein MLA was reported to have
:35:11. > :35:16.said they had never heard of the company until they saw it on the
:35:17. > :35:19.annual expenses. TUV leader Jim Allister asked the SMB commission
:35:20. > :35:23.how much of the money had been recovered. In response, the
:35:24. > :35:26.commission said its review confirmed that payments for research services,
:35:27. > :35:34.as reported in the programme, were made for admissible X-Men which are
:35:35. > :35:39.up to and including the 20 12th-13 financial year. -- the 2012-2013
:35:40. > :35:47.financial year. So no recovery has been sought. There has been no
:35:48. > :35:50.serious effort to recall the ?700,000. Whether that is because of
:35:51. > :35:54.the political inconvenience of doing those things or not is a matter of
:35:55. > :35:59.speculation. But it is appalling that nothing has been done. Jim
:36:00. > :36:07.Allister also asked about the disclosure that former DUP speaker
:36:08. > :36:12.William Hay's office claimed money for heating oil in one year.
:36:13. > :36:15.And Pat McCartan, who chairs the watchdog, the IFRP,
:36:16. > :36:25.Welcome to the programme. Thank you for joining us. Where do you think
:36:26. > :36:35.the commission has got it wrong? In the 12-13 year we made enquiries
:36:36. > :36:39.into the like RSI. It appears from our information that payments have
:36:40. > :36:45.been made after the end of December of that year. That is contrary to
:36:46. > :36:50.the determination, and the commission, if it thinks these were
:36:51. > :36:52.OK, is quite wrong. So the commission, in your view, has got it
:36:53. > :36:58.wrong. You believe that your watchdog body was crystal clear
:36:59. > :37:01.about what was allowable and what was not allowable. Where does this
:37:02. > :37:04.leave us question at these are matters for the commission. Our
:37:05. > :37:09.panel doesn't have the same panels as the panel in Westminster,
:37:10. > :37:11.otherwise they would be matters for us and we would have dealt with them
:37:12. > :37:17.long ago. These issues are only coming to light now, which is of
:37:18. > :37:25.concern to the panel because we are about to launch our determination
:37:26. > :37:29.for the next Assembly. We must be assured that there is no way in
:37:30. > :37:36.which what we determine is going to be circumvented. Stephen Walker
:37:37. > :37:40.talked their about ?700,000 over ten years that had been claimed. In
:37:41. > :37:43.terms of the nine months that you're talking about, where claims were
:37:44. > :37:51.allowed, which should not have been allowed. From April to December
:37:52. > :37:54.2012, how much was claimed that should not have been claimed? It
:37:55. > :38:01.could be ?150,000 which went to RSI in that period. Wrongly. And that
:38:02. > :38:06.?150,000 has come from the public purse? It has come from office costs
:38:07. > :38:11.expenses drawn down by individual members of the Assembly. Yes, it is
:38:12. > :38:17.out of public money is for an entirely different purpose. They
:38:18. > :38:21.fought running constituency offices or providing and 70 member with a
:38:22. > :38:27.secretarial service. And that is being paid to Sinn Fein MLA 's
:38:28. > :38:31.graduate that is paid to Sinn Fein MLA 's and something like ?5,000
:38:32. > :38:38.appears to have been paid from that money to RSI in the nine months from
:38:39. > :38:43.the 1st of April 20 12th to the 1st of December 2012. I do not have the
:38:44. > :38:48.full details but I'm awaiting those from the emission. You have made it
:38:49. > :38:52.clear that this money ought not to have been removed from the topic
:38:53. > :38:56.purse, it was not allowable in your view. Does it suggest that the
:38:57. > :39:04.Assembly commission appears to have pulled rank on your body? It does
:39:05. > :39:07.not accept your finding? It has effectively ignored it, is that
:39:08. > :39:11.right question what if it has done that, it is acting contrary to the
:39:12. > :39:14.law. The law is clear. It has given us power to determine these matters
:39:15. > :39:19.and we did do the first determination from the 1st of April
:39:20. > :39:24.20 12. It is explicit. So it will be for the commission to explain if any
:39:25. > :39:27.payments have been made wrongly in that period. We have asked for a
:39:28. > :39:31.representative of the commission to take part in today's programme. We
:39:32. > :39:35.were told that nobody was available. We had again that some of what the
:39:36. > :39:41.commission has said, defending the payments that were made, that on a
:39:42. > :39:46.technicality, or for whatever reason, it does not accept your view
:39:47. > :39:51.of the world. The question people at home will be wondering is, what
:39:52. > :39:56.happens next? Will be making our determination for the next Assembly.
:39:57. > :40:00.We are very careful to ensure that there is no every of ambiguity or
:40:01. > :40:08.problem of interpretation of our findings. They are, under the 2011
:40:09. > :40:12.act, part of the law in relation to the payment of expenses. And that is
:40:13. > :40:19.the way they should be treated. Now, in other jurisdictions, where people
:40:20. > :40:24.have been prosecuted for wrongful claims, we have no such powers as a
:40:25. > :40:29.panel yet. We are not given the same powers as they have in Westminster
:40:30. > :40:33.on a double. If we were, we would be able to take care of these matters
:40:34. > :40:35.at source. And there will be no persecutions in Northern Ireland.
:40:36. > :40:43.That is not even on the agenda. I'm not aware of anything, other than by
:40:44. > :40:50.particular case involving expenses for fuel. As far as the broader RSI
:40:51. > :40:54.claims, there is no suggestion that there is an issue as far as that is
:40:55. > :40:57.concerned. Do you feel undermined by this situation? I certainly feel
:40:58. > :41:01.that the panel has been treated wrongly that it is for the
:41:02. > :41:07.Commission to satisfy us. They will adhere to our findings, as per their
:41:08. > :41:13.legislation setting is up. That is what we would expect in the new
:41:14. > :41:18.determination. Jim Allister, that UV leader, referred in that short
:41:19. > :41:21.report to the political inconvenience. It could have been
:41:22. > :41:26.behind the decision not to attempt to recover any of the money paid to
:41:27. > :41:30.RSI. The think political inconvenience could be a factor in
:41:31. > :41:32.all of this? I don't know. I would think that that is, somewhere along
:41:33. > :41:38.the line, some pressure has been brought to their on the Secretariat
:41:39. > :41:42.to make payments contrary to the determination. Pressure from whom?
:41:43. > :41:47.From politicians saying that they need the money. I have no evidence
:41:48. > :41:57.other than what we have seen in a recent report, carried out by an
:41:58. > :42:00.independent IBSA, that some out of determination has gone on. It is a
:42:01. > :42:06.complicated situation because you have got politicians making up the
:42:07. > :42:09.Assembly, commission. They are putting pressure on the secretariat,
:42:10. > :42:13.you imagine. At the end of the day, it is the Assembly Commission who
:42:14. > :42:17.have the final say, and that is politicians. That is what is wrong
:42:18. > :42:20.with the system. That is why the Independent Financial Review Panel
:42:21. > :42:27.did ask for the legislation to be reviewed. We are disappointed in
:42:28. > :42:31.what has been said. They wish to continue with the present system. In
:42:32. > :42:37.the meantime, Wendy you publish your next determination, and what is it
:42:38. > :42:40.likely to say of significance, given the conversation we have just had?
:42:41. > :42:44.It is likely to make it very exquisite as to what is or is not
:42:45. > :42:48.allowed. It is likely to ensure that there is clarity in each of the
:42:49. > :42:54.allowances and how they will be paid. It is likely to recommend, if
:42:55. > :42:58.we cannot act ourselves, on a range of these issues to ensure that
:42:59. > :43:02.public bodies are properly accounted for. You will make that
:43:03. > :43:09.determination, but we still do not have the power, the legislative
:43:10. > :43:11.power, for you to enforce your view on the Assembly Commission as things
:43:12. > :43:16.stand question what we do have that power but it is for the Commission
:43:17. > :43:21.to enact it. If it is not enacting it, that is a matter for the
:43:22. > :43:26.Commission. That is what cannot be followed up question that is the
:43:27. > :43:29.issue currently. Of course we are concerned for the general public to
:43:30. > :43:35.ensure that the legislation is absolutely clear that there is a
:43:36. > :43:38.full independent body that is was possible for policing and paying out
:43:39. > :43:42.these matters. That is what is being rejected by the fresh start. Thank
:43:43. > :43:44.you for coming in. Let's see what my
:43:45. > :43:47.guests make of that. Newton Emerson and Allison
:43:48. > :43:54.Morris are with me. What do you make of that question
:43:55. > :43:57.what it is absolutely startling. I think most people will be shocked
:43:58. > :44:01.that there is nothing that can be done. If this had been at West Mr,
:44:02. > :44:04.able would be committed for prosecutions but we have a situation
:44:05. > :44:15.where politicians are regulated themselves. The rules were clearly
:44:16. > :44:18.wrong. ?150,000 outside of when the rules were changed. That should be
:44:19. > :44:25.paid back immediately. There is no question. With regards to the fact
:44:26. > :44:30.that there is no power for anyone to include any prosecutions, I think
:44:31. > :44:35.now we are living in times of austerity, that probably won't win
:44:36. > :44:38.these games wait ten years ago, I don't think many numbers of the
:44:39. > :44:43.public will look on them in the same way as they would have then. We are
:44:44. > :44:50.hearing that politicians are paying themselves outside of the rules. I
:44:51. > :44:54.think it is fair to say that the frustration was apparent there. On
:44:55. > :45:00.the face of it, it looks like an astonishing situation. Pat McCartan
:45:01. > :45:08.has identified payments after the rules which range -- were changed in
:45:09. > :45:13.2012. It is also ludicrous that they were allowed before that. Clear
:45:14. > :45:17.evidence was broadcast on the whole of Northern Ireland and the
:45:18. > :45:23.Commission response was that it was admissible, without exhalation, and
:45:24. > :45:25.that it should not be processed. That only raises more questions than
:45:26. > :45:36.answers. If you're talking about expenses claims for heating system
:45:37. > :45:40.is being run around the clock. There is absolutely a clear case that must
:45:41. > :45:44.be set out of how, if this was not wrong, how was it not wrong? You
:45:45. > :45:48.cannot say it is admissible and drop the paperwork down the back of the
:45:49. > :45:54.radiator and forget about it. To be clear, what we're talking about,
:45:55. > :45:59.what is still outstanding, what Pat McCartan was referring to, was the
:46:00. > :46:04.?100,000 between April and December 20 12. That is the issue. The point
:46:05. > :46:09.is that the Assembly Commission is effectively leasing itself. It is
:46:10. > :46:14.policing itself will stop if they do not choose to rip accepted the
:46:15. > :46:18.recommendations, there is nothing anybody can do. The Nice to be some
:46:19. > :46:19.sort of enforcement here. We will speak to you both later.
:46:20. > :46:23.Now, millions of pounds worth of work will be lost
:46:24. > :46:26.and jobs are at risk if a green energy scheme is scrapped -
:46:27. > :46:27.that's the claim from renewables companies
:46:28. > :46:29.after the Enterprise Minister, Jonathan Bell,
:46:30. > :46:31.has announced his intention to close the renewable heat incentive scheme.
:46:32. > :46:37.Here's what the Minister had to say last week.
:46:38. > :46:44.My department faces a huge budgetary pressure, given the decision of the
:46:45. > :46:49.Chancellor of the Exchequer to limit the amount of money paid to Northern
:46:50. > :46:53.Ireland out of the UK part for renewable heat. Now, that is why I
:46:54. > :47:02.signalled my intention last week to ease that financial pressure. Which
:47:03. > :47:05.could amount to over ?27 million. By announcing an immediate closure to
:47:06. > :47:11.the scheme and by bringing Ford and order to suspend the scheme, as soon
:47:12. > :47:13.as possible. I want to make every one know that I'm listening to the
:47:14. > :47:17.industry and I'm listening to individuals who are currently
:47:18. > :47:20.installing renewable heat boilers. I will come back and try to give that
:47:21. > :47:23.clarity at the early possible date. Now I'm joined by the chair of the
:47:24. > :47:37.DETI committee, Patsy McGlone, Welcome to you both. In the Autumn
:47:38. > :47:41.Statement, George Osborne announced cuts to the funding for real for
:47:42. > :47:47.schemes. If Northern Ireland goes over its limit, it comes out of the
:47:48. > :47:50.DETI budget. This is an issue that goes back to the Exchequer in
:47:51. > :47:57.London, rather than the door of Jonathan Bell. Yes and no. It has
:47:58. > :48:03.emerged since that back as far as June 2014, it was anticipated that
:48:04. > :48:07.we would have 300 applications under the scheme within that financial
:48:08. > :48:14.year. Up to March 20 15. In November, it had already reached
:48:15. > :48:21.308. As of last Tuesday, they told us that concerns were raised about
:48:22. > :48:25.it last March. Concerns were raised in July. What we have here is a
:48:26. > :48:29.situation where this mess that has arrived, that has put individuals
:48:30. > :48:35.who wanted to install systems to the home, who took out loans on the foot
:48:36. > :48:42.of that, it has put them in problems. It has put businesses into
:48:43. > :48:46.trouble. They had invested in the scheme which they thought would last
:48:47. > :48:53.until the end of March. Another ?100,000 of equipment and 25 jobs
:48:54. > :48:59.being at risk in one case. It is estimated that this could jeopardise
:49:00. > :49:02.jobs. We have a mess at the Department. We have a mess at the
:49:03. > :49:07.Department in your view. If the department should have been aware of
:49:08. > :49:12.these issues, so should your committee. You were aware of this as
:49:13. > :49:20.well but in actual fact, this announcement was released Friday a
:49:21. > :49:24.week ago. It was an attempt to bury the story. People got on the phones
:49:25. > :49:34.to us and immediately I acted as chair of the committee. This is
:49:35. > :49:37.seriously jeopardising jobs. I'm sure the department will deny
:49:38. > :49:40.burying the story. We did ask Jonathan Bell to take part in the
:49:41. > :49:46.story but he is not available today. Do you think that Department has
:49:47. > :49:50.mishandled the situation? I think this was a good idea as a scheme
:49:51. > :49:55.when it was launched. It took some time for people who could denture
:49:56. > :49:58.use it and benefit from it to appreciate it. What has happened is
:49:59. > :50:03.that the economics of the scheme have changed. What has happened is
:50:04. > :50:10.the Chancellor of the Exchequer setup the warning sign on the ward
:50:11. > :50:15.when -- in the Autumn Statement. I did not notice it then and Patsy is
:50:16. > :50:20.saying that his committee has only just begun to look at it carefully.
:50:21. > :50:25.Jonathan Bell in how did the scheme. I think he was already on the skids
:50:26. > :50:29.on the day he took up office. There is certain ambiguity about that. The
:50:30. > :50:34.critical question is that the scheme is proving to successful, in the
:50:35. > :50:39.sense that it is getting too many people making bids, it will cost the
:50:40. > :50:42.taxpayer a lot of money, and the question is, how well have they
:50:43. > :50:47.handled acting out of the scheme? I think this is where Patsy is making
:50:48. > :50:51.his case. Backing out of the scheme has been handled badly and too
:50:52. > :50:56.slowly. His point is that dumb bunnies are going to suffer, they
:50:57. > :51:02.are going to lose out and people will potentially lose jobs. --
:51:03. > :51:10.companies are going to suffer. There came the rush. People have given us
:51:11. > :51:13.the figures where the potential bidders have gone up or stop they
:51:14. > :51:18.are heading for an impossible position for any minister and for
:51:19. > :51:22.the taxpayer. The minister wanted to close it down as big as possible. He
:51:23. > :51:26.may be moved to slowly and he is now caught with a possible legal
:51:27. > :51:32.nightmare because he has announced this closure with braided notice. So
:51:33. > :51:43.what happens next? -- with braided full very little notice. They are
:51:44. > :51:47.potentially in a limo situation? The officials say they became aware of
:51:48. > :51:50.the scale of the problem last March. They do it to the minister's
:51:51. > :51:54.attention in July. There is a mechanism used which is demand led
:51:55. > :52:00.so that terrorists are adjusted up and down to reduce the heat in the
:52:01. > :52:05.system and reduce the demand for the scheme. That mechanism exists.
:52:06. > :52:12.Unfortunately, we did not have it here. That is another question that
:52:13. > :52:17.will have to be asked. The difficulty is the suddenness of this
:52:18. > :52:22.scheme. The actual legislation and tariffs set for the scheme rock up
:52:23. > :52:25.until the 31st of March. People made projections on that, business
:52:26. > :52:30.projections, people took out loans on the foot of that. He is only
:52:31. > :52:36.bringing it to a close a few weeks earlier. If it was going to the end
:52:37. > :52:39.of March and year is closing it at the end of February, what is the
:52:40. > :52:45.fuss estimate if you are developing a scheme, if you're putting in these
:52:46. > :52:52.biomass oilers and the like, 03 weeks, countries were working to
:52:53. > :52:56.that date. You were taking orders for equipped, working to that date.
:52:57. > :52:58.They have been installing this in homes and we had the farmers union
:52:59. > :53:07.with us. They were working to that date. They had a project in mind of
:53:08. > :53:14.around upwards of 50 farms. If they do not cancel this, they are going
:53:15. > :53:20.to lose ?30 million. But it was staring him in the face last year.
:53:21. > :53:27.He is caught in between a rock and a hard place. Having been caught in
:53:28. > :53:33.that position, he now has to move, presumably in a way that is legal,
:53:34. > :53:37.in bringing this scheme to a close was what does he have to do? No
:53:38. > :53:41.schemes will be approved after the 29th of February, which is coming
:53:42. > :53:47.forward a month. There is a human doubt there. Some people who saw the
:53:48. > :53:50.way in which the scheme is expanding rapidly may well have said, this
:53:51. > :53:54.will not keep going, we had better get in now. That business of getting
:53:55. > :53:59.in now as given rise to a discussion, is this use or abuse of
:54:00. > :54:03.the system? Just in a sentence, it comes before the Assembly tomorrow,
:54:04. > :54:07.I think. What happens but it comes before the rule extended sheen the
:54:08. > :54:14.attention of the scheme, until the 29th of February. It may be extended
:54:15. > :54:19.beyond the short time they gave us. It does before the semi tomorrow and
:54:20. > :54:21.it will come to a vote. It is whether they vote in favour of that.
:54:22. > :54:25.Would you vote in favour question on no, I have had firms in touch with
:54:26. > :54:31.me saying it is an unrealisable deal. They were led up the garden
:54:32. > :54:32.path, basically, they feel. It will be interesting to see what happens
:54:33. > :54:34.tomorrow. Thank you. Let's take a look back
:54:35. > :54:48.at the political week in 60 seconds The issue of abortion dominated the
:54:49. > :54:52.headlines, and one MLA told his personal story. I don't like talking
:54:53. > :54:59.about this because I get emotional but, believe me, that decision to
:55:00. > :55:09.give us to this day. The Justice Minister revealed what courthouses
:55:10. > :55:16.were -- would close. Jim Wells provoked a controversy.
:55:17. > :55:22.The Secretary of State warned about people rewriting the past. In
:55:23. > :55:29.certain isolated cases, the state was at Fort but it would be entirely
:55:30. > :55:36.wrong to say that it was endemic. The chief cos the ball -- Chief
:55:37. > :55:45.Constable says we need to talk about the past.
:55:46. > :55:51.Just time for a final word from Allison and Newton.
:55:52. > :55:58.I wonder what you make of the legacy inquest unit, and us by the Lord
:55:59. > :56:01.Chief Justice on Friday? There are still the gauche Asians going on
:56:02. > :56:09.about how the past will be dealt with. -- skilled negotiations going
:56:10. > :56:13.on. It indicates that it is revealing about where that debate is
:56:14. > :56:16.going on. The British governor did looking confident, I think was that
:56:17. > :56:20.is that a constructive contributing? It was very hurtful to the victims
:56:21. > :56:22.who think there will be an attempt to get a line drawn in the sand
:56:23. > :56:25.before there is any justice. That's it - now back
:56:26. > :56:26.to Andrew in London. MPs are on their half term holiday
:56:27. > :56:40.at the moment, so you might be forgiven for thinking we'll be
:56:41. > :56:43.in for a quiet time next week. On Thursday, David Cameron heads
:56:44. > :56:48.to Brussels where he hopes to finalise his deal on Britain's
:56:49. > :56:51.membership of the EU at what's been dubbed the "crunch"
:56:52. > :57:04.European summit. We will see how crunchy it is. Tim,
:57:05. > :57:07.Mr Hammond, the Foreign Secretary this morning, Matthew Hancock on
:57:08. > :57:11.this programme, they both said, let's see what the final deal is
:57:12. > :57:14.because there could be more in it than the draft settlement, more for
:57:15. > :57:18.the British government. I would suggest that the draft settlement
:57:19. > :57:22.for Mr Cameron is as good as it gets. That may well be the case,
:57:23. > :57:26.journalists have been seeking rabbits from hats for many weeks,
:57:27. > :57:30.taking them out, and Eurosceptics have been shooting them long before
:57:31. > :57:33.David Cameron got anywhere near it. One thing I understand David Cameron
:57:34. > :57:40.will do before next weekend, he can explain what he means by this
:57:41. > :57:44.sovereignty lock, the sovereign Parliament will be... That is all
:57:45. > :57:47.smoke and mirrors. It is but it is the one thing he has got left. It is
:57:48. > :57:51.something they can do in domestic law and explain how the Supreme
:57:52. > :57:56.Court here will hold the European Court to the letter of the European
:57:57. > :57:59.treaty. It is effectively getting a British court to say that the
:58:00. > :58:03.European Court is not adhering to its own treaties. If the summit
:58:04. > :58:06.finishes on Friday I suspect he will unveil that either at a press
:58:07. > :58:09.conference or we will see him doing Andrew Marr next Sunday and telling
:58:10. > :58:13.the world all about it. He is going to do Andrew Marr next Sunday.
:58:14. > :58:17.Politically the Prime Minister would be in trouble with his own party if
:58:18. > :58:22.this deal was further watered down, wouldn't he? He needed to be
:58:23. > :58:27.strengthened. I'm hearing stories coming out of Brussels saying there
:58:28. > :58:33.is a rabbit or two, but whether they are tiny little rabbits or great big
:58:34. > :58:37.ones I don't know. I think this is a campaign that will be won by fear,
:58:38. > :58:40.not by terrific bribes and isn't the deal wonderful? What Philip Hammond
:58:41. > :58:46.said this morning was very important, that if we vote to leave,
:58:47. > :58:51.Europe will make sure our conditions are as bad as possible for fear of
:58:52. > :58:55.the whole thing falling apart, other countries peeling off. That's the
:58:56. > :58:59.serious threat. The idea that we will get a wonderful deal out of
:59:00. > :59:03.Europe or that France will go on being our border guards and look
:59:04. > :59:10.after our camp in Calais, I think it's those sorts of fears that will
:59:11. > :59:14.win it. If Mr Sarkozy wins in France, it could change the camp
:59:15. > :59:18.whether we are in or outcome he is campaigning on that. He could,
:59:19. > :59:23.that's true. Next year is next year. The problem with all these things,
:59:24. > :59:31.like the out campaign saying if in, Europe will react like this, none of
:59:32. > :59:37.that is provable until it happens. We had a close colleague of Angela
:59:38. > :59:43.Merkel today warning that it would be bloody, our terms, if we leave.
:59:44. > :59:47.And why shouldn't they say that? There's no point in issuing the
:59:48. > :59:54.threat afterwards. If they want to threaten, now is the time. Doesn't
:59:55. > :59:59.mean he's not a good man just because we haven't heard from him,
:00:00. > :00:03.but we haven't. It seems, I was suggesting, that Michael Gove, in
:00:04. > :00:06.terms of which Cabinet ministers are going to go with remain and which
:00:07. > :00:09.ones are going to go without, it seems that Michael Gove is becoming
:00:10. > :00:16.the pivotal figure, here. Suggestions that if he decides to go
:00:17. > :00:18.out, and apparently he is incredibly anguished about this, Boris Johnson
:00:19. > :00:24.could well follow. If he doesn't, they might not. Michael Gove is
:00:25. > :00:28.genuinely torn. Downing Street were very confident at the beginning of
:00:29. > :00:31.this year that Michael Gove would be with the Prime Minister. But anybody
:00:32. > :00:36.that has no Michael Gove, and are used to be his colleague, he will
:00:37. > :00:39.know that in his heart of hearts he would like to get Britain out of the
:00:40. > :00:43.European Union, it is as simple as that. At he knows that if he
:00:44. > :00:47.campaigns to take Britain out of Europe, what he is essentially doing
:00:48. > :00:51.is joining a campaign which, if successful, will destroy David
:00:52. > :00:55.Cameron's Korea, and George Osborne's and hand the Tory
:00:56. > :00:58.leadership to the two people in the Conservative Party he loathes more
:00:59. > :01:03.than anybody else, Theresa May and Boris Johnson. So he is torn. The
:01:04. > :01:09.thing about Boris Johnson, in his heart of hearts, believes Britain
:01:10. > :01:12.should be in the European Union. But there is one thing Boris Johnson
:01:13. > :01:16.believes more than that, which is that Boris Johnson should be Prime
:01:17. > :01:23.Minister. Therefore he needs to do what is best for that, which is why
:01:24. > :01:25.he needs this sort of thing. Grateful for that blinding
:01:26. > :01:29.revelation that Boris Johnson wants to be Prime Minister. If Cameron can
:01:30. > :01:36.keep Michael Gove on board, there will be fewer defections other than
:01:37. > :01:39.the usual suspects? I think that's right. Somebody described him to me
:01:40. > :01:47.as the big Domino and if he falls, others could. Cameron is trying
:01:48. > :01:50.quite hard. He had Gove in last week trying to persuade him. What they
:01:51. > :01:54.think they've got is an enlargement from Gove that if he does opt to
:01:55. > :01:58.follow his conscience and vote out he will not do much campaigning. I
:01:59. > :02:02.suspect he would do one interview and sit the thing out, and they
:02:03. > :02:06.think if he is not out there leading it, that will not do quite as much
:02:07. > :02:11.damage. We know Alan Johnson is heading up the labour effort to stay
:02:12. > :02:14.in, but is Jeremy Corbyn really going to campaign hard to stay in?
:02:15. > :02:19.Is the Labour Party going to spend money on this campaign? I very much
:02:20. > :02:25.doubt it. It's not in his heart. His instincts are to pick up the wrong
:02:26. > :02:27.issue, today there he is saying that he thinks Cameron is wrong on
:02:28. > :02:33.immigration, we should have much easier immigration, he shouldn't be
:02:34. > :02:36.trying to cut back the number of EU migrants coming into the country.
:02:37. > :02:41.That is no way to win it, I presume he knows it. It's very important
:02:42. > :02:48.that Labour voters are brought on board. Mr Cameron needs them, too.
:02:49. > :02:52.Cameron really needs Labour voters. It ought to be the great, strong,
:02:53. > :02:57.uniting message for Labour. Virtually all Labour MPs are
:02:58. > :03:00.strongly in favour part from a maverick hand. Quite the clear
:03:01. > :03:04.majority of the Parliamentary party. It should have been a big contrast,
:03:05. > :03:07.Labour pro-European, Tories all over the place. I'm afraid Jeremy Corbyn
:03:08. > :03:25.will muddy that. final debate when he laid into the
:03:26. > :03:31.European Union. He hates the new free trade area. He said he would
:03:32. > :03:37.support our membership but push four reform from within. A few days
:03:38. > :03:41.before the big summit which is meant to clinch it one way or the other
:03:42. > :03:47.are we heading for a June 23 referendum? Almost certainly and
:03:48. > :03:51.thank God. So we can plan our summer holidays and ministers and advisers
:03:52. > :03:56.feel the same. Never mind about the needs of the nation. It looks like
:03:57. > :04:01.there will be some kind of deal and they may give him a bit more in some
:04:02. > :04:06.areas. Cameron is determined to press on with this, he does not want
:04:07. > :06:24.this hanging over his government. Every Monday he
:06:25. > :06:32.Will have backed out of the referendum, that is a factor in
:06:33. > :06:35.several politicians cut relations right now. As I discovered, the
:06:36. > :06:40.front runners have been very coy about it all. What is this about? A
:06:41. > :06:55.programme about the Tory leadership. What on earth is the
:06:56. > :06:58.relevance of that to your many millions of viewers
:06:59. > :07:01.when you consider that there is no, thankfully, thankfully,
:07:02. > :07:02.and there is no vacancy Nor is there going to be one
:07:03. > :07:06.for a very long time. Oh well, maybe I'll get lucky
:07:07. > :07:12.with some of the other Apparently, Health Secretary,
:07:13. > :07:15.Jeremy Hunt, might Speculation surrounds
:07:16. > :07:17.the Welsh Secretary, Stephen Crabb, Education
:07:18. > :07:18.Secretary Nicky Morgan once a female candidate,
:07:19. > :07:20.preferably her. Defra Secretary, Liz Truss
:07:21. > :07:22.is repeated to be ambitious. There are mutterings
:07:23. > :07:23.about Business Secretary, Sajid Javid, but is he really
:07:24. > :07:26.angling to be the next And is a leadership bid
:07:27. > :07:31.while Michael Gove is swinging over which side to back
:07:32. > :07:33.in the referendum. Energy Minister, Andrea Leadsom
:07:34. > :07:38.is holding surgeries in the Commons tearoom and a mystery member
:07:39. > :07:41.of the 2015 intake is rumoured to have big plans and
:07:42. > :07:43.Employment Minister and arch Eurosceptic Priti Patel is expected
:07:44. > :07:45.to have a profile-boosting role in the Out Campaign
:07:46. > :07:51.and then there is Liam Fox. This week, a poll
:07:52. > :07:55.on the website run by Paul Goodman found that the former
:07:56. > :07:58.Defence Secretary was favourite If you speculate that the hard right
:07:59. > :08:10.of Conservative Party membership, is about a fifth of it,
:08:11. > :08:14.that sounds fair enough. What was remarkable about his score
:08:15. > :08:18.was in fact how low it was, it was the joint-lowest
:08:19. > :08:19.score for a leading A lot of this is total
:08:20. > :08:26.nonsense, but it presages potentially three years of Tory
:08:27. > :08:55.leadership gossip for the people The Tory party would be in a
:08:56. > :08:59.leadership crisis but the country would be in a huge political crisis.
:09:00. > :09:04.It would go on for years. It would take at least smack years of very
:09:05. > :09:09.painful negotiations, maybe longer, to get us out of these treaties.
:09:10. > :09:14.Nobody has done it before, nobody knows what it would look like.
:09:15. > :09:20.Cameron would have to go. The humiliation would be appalling.
:09:21. > :09:25.Osborne's chances would be shot to pieces. By then, the country might
:09:26. > :09:30.have changed its mind and be upset by having narrowly voted against for
:09:31. > :09:37.getting out. They might regret it. Where does that leave whoever the
:09:38. > :09:42.future leader is? Do you agree? This whole contest will boil down to
:09:43. > :09:45.several binary choices, in and out of Europe, George Osborne and not
:09:46. > :09:52.George Osborne. Boris Johnson Atmos Boris Johnson. Woman and man. -- or
:09:53. > :09:58.not Boris Johnson. Depending on the circumstances we will find a leader.
:09:59. > :10:01.The young and old. 2015 intake are getting bored about George Osborne
:10:02. > :10:05.is nearly inevitable and if not him, Boris Johnson. They are thinking
:10:06. > :10:10.about running one of their own. There are names that we haven't even
:10:11. > :10:13.considered that may enter the fray. David Cameron might not go
:10:14. > :10:17.immediately but if he has to go he would be the walking wounded through
:10:18. > :10:22.the summer and into the autumn. Mr George Osborne probably the same. He
:10:23. > :10:27.kind of throws everything open. It stars. There is a lot of chat
:10:28. > :10:31.amongst ministers about what happens if we vote to leave -- it does. The
:10:32. > :10:36.Prime Minister says we trigger at ago 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, two
:10:37. > :10:42.years negotiation and I should do that -- at Article 50. One school of
:10:43. > :10:47.thought is that the prime and will bring in David Davies as the Deputy
:10:48. > :10:51.Prime Minister and lead the exit negotiations but I can't see that. I
:10:52. > :10:56.think that will be a leadership contest and the defining feature is
:10:57. > :11:00.who is the best person to lead those exit negotiations. And you would
:11:01. > :11:04.assume that a minister who has said we should leave would be best
:11:05. > :11:08.placed. Maybe it will be possible to have administered through said we
:11:09. > :11:12.should be in but maybe not wholly involved in the remaining campaign.
:11:13. > :11:19.A good Eurosceptic track record. Boris Johnson? Theresa May Possibly.
:11:20. > :11:24.Do you want Boris Johnson negotiating the future of the treaty
:11:25. > :11:27.over two years? I think Boris Johnson's position will be weaker
:11:28. > :11:33.than anyone things because of the dithering. It is so transparent and
:11:34. > :11:38.nakedly ambitious. Whether he is fought in or out. Anybody who is
:11:39. > :11:42.interested in politics feels passionately in or out and he can't
:11:43. > :11:44.pretend to be waiting for these minor negotiations on this
:11:45. > :11:49.fundamental issue that he has tackled all his life. Even if we
:11:50. > :11:55.wrote to remain, what is your view on what is sometimes called even if
:11:56. > :11:59.we vote to remain, the Conservatives, whose heart would not
:12:00. > :12:04.have been in remaining, will want someone to lead them after Mr
:12:05. > :12:09.Cameron, much later, who was Brexit? There is a strong case for that.
:12:10. > :12:16.Most of the polls suggest that 70% of the conservative grassroot is a
:12:17. > :12:21.Brexitier. There are polls which show, to speak up for Boris, that he
:12:22. > :12:24.is wildly more popular than any other conservative. There are
:12:25. > :12:29.conservative MPs who will look at those polls, the one in the
:12:30. > :12:34.Independent this morning he is the only main stream politician who has
:12:35. > :12:39.a positive rating. This is a 2-stage process, the MPs put you on the
:12:40. > :12:43.ballot paper, the grassroots people select you. Only two names go
:12:44. > :12:49.forward. You need to get past the MPs and then make your case to the
:12:50. > :12:54.wider. If Boris gets through, to being one of the final two, given
:12:55. > :12:58.his popularity with the Tory grassroots, could change, it could
:12:59. > :13:03.be skin deep, I don't know, but wouldn't he be an unstoppable? He
:13:04. > :13:08.doesn't have a huge backing at Westminster, a lot of MPs don't know
:13:09. > :13:12.him. Will he survive the rigours of a campaign? The interview on the
:13:13. > :13:16.Andrew Marr show, he faced awkward questions about one of his friends.
:13:17. > :13:21.You assume he will get through that process. We are talking about a
:13:22. > :13:26.contest after we have voted to stay in. Important lesson from 1975,
:13:27. > :13:30.Harold Wilson was a massively strengthened after that win. He
:13:31. > :13:33.moved Tony Benn at the crucial post of industry because he was very
:13:34. > :13:40.strong. The Prime Minister will pretty strong on that.
:13:41. > :13:45.Remember, if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.