:00:36. > :00:43.Well, this is the closest I'll get to Rio.
:00:44. > :00:48.The advance of the Islamist army on Baghdad has been slowed.
:00:49. > :00:49.The Iraqi army claims the fightback has begun.
:00:50. > :00:52.But the country now faces a de facto partition.
:00:53. > :00:54.What should Britain, Europe, or the US be doing - if anything?
:00:55. > :00:58.It's been a big week in the Scottish referendum.
:00:59. > :01:02.But has the tone of the debate become too downright nasty?
:01:03. > :01:09.Both sides join us to go head to head.
:01:10. > :01:13.I will swap Ed Miliband for Tim Farren. What is the significance of
:01:14. > :01:15.that? And coming up here:
:01:16. > :01:23.even Westminster, we'll be asking As police promise a crackdown
:01:24. > :01:25.on loyalist flags I'll be hearing reaction from
:01:26. > :01:32.Mike Nesbitt, Alasdair McDonnell Join me in half an hour.
:01:33. > :01:42.support amongst people is bigger than assumed.
:01:43. > :01:45.The Sunni Islamist army known as ISIS is now in control
:01:46. > :01:47.of huge swathes of northern and western Iraq, including
:01:48. > :01:51.Until the weekend they looked like advancing relentlessly
:01:52. > :01:53.on Baghdad but that offensive has now been slowed or even halted
:01:54. > :01:58.The Iraqi army and its Shia milita allies vow that
:01:59. > :02:05.Baghdad will not be taken and that a counter-attack will soon begin.
:02:06. > :02:07.Iraq's Shia Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has to do something to
:02:08. > :02:09.reverse the humiliation of recent days, which saw
:02:10. > :02:15.his US-trained and equipped Iraqi army, which outnumbered
:02:16. > :02:18.the Islamists 15 to 1 melt away or surrender when confronted by ISIS.
:02:19. > :02:21.The conflict has already created a humanitarian crisis, with hundreds
:02:22. > :02:31.The Kurds have used the conflict to consolidate their hold on their
:02:32. > :02:35.autonomous area in the north, parts of the west and the north are in the
:02:36. > :02:38.grip of ISIS control and the Shias are hunkering down in the east.
:02:39. > :02:40.All of which makes a three-way partition a real possibility with
:02:41. > :02:45.The US is moving another of its massive aircraft carrier
:02:46. > :02:47.battlefleets to the Gulf, though the White House shows no
:02:48. > :02:52.While Iran says it's ready to help its Shia allies
:02:53. > :02:54.and there are unconfoirmed reports that its revolutionary guard has
:02:55. > :03:07.Well, I'm joined now by Newsnight's diplomatic editor Mark Urban.
:03:08. > :03:17.Let's start with some basics. Who are ISIS and why are they
:03:18. > :03:22.controlling big chunks of Iraq? ISIS is an extremist militant jihad
:03:23. > :03:26.organisation and they have a pure Islamic concept based on 14th
:03:27. > :03:30.century history and jurisprudence. What they want to do is correct --
:03:31. > :03:36.create this caliphate that do not recognise colonial boundaries so it
:03:37. > :03:40.involves Syria and Iraq, and they could go down to Lebanon and
:03:41. > :03:42.Palestine, that is all fair game as far as they are concerned. And they
:03:43. > :03:47.have this strict interpretation of Islam. The more interesting question
:03:48. > :03:55.is why have semi-Sunni Muslims, along with them, these are precisely
:03:56. > :04:00.the sort of people who in 2006, 2007, tribal leaders in the west of
:04:01. > :04:03.the country rose up against. It was called the Awakening and the
:04:04. > :04:09.Americans in power did and bankrolled it. These people turned
:04:10. > :04:12.against them and admired them in large numbers, so why do they have
:04:13. > :04:17.so many Sunni Muslims on their side? We hear about people going
:04:18. > :04:19.back to Mosul. I think the answer is a perception
:04:20. > :04:23.back to Mosul. I think the answer that the current government is
:04:24. > :04:26.ruling in sectarian interests, Shia Muslim interest, and the Sunni
:04:27. > :04:29.Muslims want self-determination and this is their best bet.
:04:30. > :04:33.Muslims want self-determination and this is their Let me put up this map
:04:34. > :04:36.to find out where we are going. We can see Mosul in the north, they
:04:37. > :04:45.took that, and then they started, South, reports that the crit was
:04:46. > :04:51.involved -- to grit -- to grit. What is the situation on the ground now?
:04:52. > :04:59.We are in what you might call a consolidation or strategic pause as
:05:00. > :05:01.American called it in 2003. ISIS are trying to consolidate their power in
:05:02. > :05:04.Mosul, and now they have this major city and they are trying to show
:05:05. > :05:10.they can run the city and get the power going, etc. Their southernmost
:05:11. > :05:14.forces, that is a gorilla army, guys in pick-up trucks. They cannot deal
:05:15. > :05:18.with serious opposition. They would like to get the tanks and other
:05:19. > :05:23.things into action but that could take weeks for them to be able to do
:05:24. > :05:26.it. The government side is that they have counter-attacked, but it will
:05:27. > :05:32.take a little while before these newly raised militia and other task
:05:33. > :05:38.forces, call them what you will, can effectively counter-attacked. But
:05:39. > :05:41.that is what will happen in the next week or two. We will see
:05:42. > :05:50.increasingly large and serious government counter-attacked trying
:05:51. > :05:55.to retake those places, and I fear a really difficult, bloody Syrian
:05:56. > :06:03.style street by street battle for some of these urban centres. I would
:06:04. > :06:06.like to have a look at this map, because the Kurds, as I mentioned,
:06:07. > :06:09.they are consolidating their position in the autonomous region in
:06:10. > :06:14.the north. The Islamist are taking over huge chunks of the Sunni Muslim
:06:15. > :06:21.West. And of course the Shia Muslim are still dominant in control of
:06:22. > :06:24.Baghdad and in parts of the south and east. Back to me looks like the
:06:25. > :06:34.beginnings of the partition of Iraq. -- back to me. Well, it is, but we
:06:35. > :06:39.have to caveat it in a few ways. Firstly, there are millions of
:06:40. > :06:44.people in Iraq, so-called sushi, combined families, who do not fit
:06:45. > :06:49.easily into the pattern. Do we see millions of people becoming refugees
:06:50. > :06:52.under this scheme? There would be a lot of human tragedies if people
:06:53. > :06:58.really did try to enforce this type partition. Secondly, there are Sunni
:06:59. > :07:04.Muslim communities in the south of Baghdad, those places, once again, a
:07:05. > :07:14.lot of misery and fighting will occur if people try to enforce a de
:07:15. > :07:20.facto partition. There are still an awakening of forces. They are on the
:07:21. > :07:26.side of the government. We heard about one group in Samarra of Sunni
:07:27. > :07:30.Muslims fighting on the same side. It's a complex picture. They factor,
:07:31. > :07:35.it does look like a partition, and if it goes further in that direction
:07:36. > :07:40.it will. And partition will always be messy because people end up on
:07:41. > :07:45.the wrong side of the lies. Finally, the big thing on that map,
:07:46. > :07:50.Iran, a huge place, a huge border with Shia Muslim Iraq. Iran now
:07:51. > :07:57.becomes a key factor. It is becoming a proxy war for Iran. Yes, when I
:07:58. > :07:58.was in Baghdad a few months ago, I did actually see Iranians
:07:59. > :08:05.revolutionary guards in uniform. They were protecting a senior
:08:06. > :08:08.Iranians official, so some numbers have been never some time and they
:08:09. > :08:14.are also said to protect the political leaders and -- in his
:08:15. > :08:18.compound. They are there. We think more of them are trying to organise
:08:19. > :08:23.the defence of Baghdad to galvanise the Iraqi army, and they will not
:08:24. > :08:25.allow the Iraqi government to fall. Mark, thank you for marking archive
:08:26. > :08:30.this morning. -- marking our card. Tony Blair took Britain
:08:31. > :08:32.into the Iraq conflict in 2003. He's now, among other things, envoy
:08:33. > :08:35.to the Middle East representing That's the UN, the EU,
:08:36. > :08:38.the US and Russia. This morning he entered
:08:39. > :08:49.the debate about what should be My point is simple. If you left
:08:50. > :08:53.Saddam in place in 2003, when 2011 happened and you have the Arab
:08:54. > :09:00.revolutions going through Tunisia, Libya, Yemen, Bahrain and Egypt and
:09:01. > :09:03.Syria, you would still have had a major problem in Iraq. You can see
:09:04. > :09:07.what happens when you leave the dictator in place, as has happened
:09:08. > :09:12.with Bashar al-Assad. The problem doesn't go away. What I'm trying to
:09:13. > :09:15.say is, we can rerun the debates about 2003, and there are perfectly
:09:16. > :09:20.legitimate points on either side, but where we are in 2014, we have do
:09:21. > :09:21.understand that this is a regional problem, but a problem that will
:09:22. > :09:25.affect us. And I'm joined by the former Foreign
:09:26. > :09:27.Office minister Mark Malloch-Brown, Here in London are James Rubin,
:09:28. > :09:31.he was chief spokesman for the State Department under
:09:32. > :09:33.Bill Clinton, and Bayan Rahman, she represents the Kurdistan
:09:34. > :09:50.Regional government in the UK. Intervened in Iraq, it's a shambles,
:09:51. > :09:54.we don't intervene in Syria, it's a shambles. What lessons should we
:09:55. > :09:58.draw? That is a well framed question, because that is the
:09:59. > :10:01.problem. Tony Blair is half right. Iraq, like Syria, would probably
:10:02. > :10:06.have been a problem even without an intervention. But one wishes someone
:10:07. > :10:12.would tell him to stay quiet during moments like this, because it does
:10:13. > :10:16.drive a great surge of people in the other direction. The fact is, what
:10:17. > :10:19.has been missing in western politics towards the Middle East throughout
:10:20. > :10:25.both episodes, Syria and Iraq, is a drive to build an inclusive,
:10:26. > :10:30.democratic centre which is secular and nonsectarian. That has been
:10:31. > :10:36.missing amongst the threats of invasion Manon invasion, we have
:10:37. > :10:40.just constantly neglected the diplomatic nation-building
:10:41. > :10:44.dimensional this. I want to come onto what is happening on the
:10:45. > :10:47.ground. I want to begin with what the Western response by me, and by
:10:48. > :10:52.that we mean the United States, because of it doesn't do anything,
:10:53. > :10:56.nobody will do anything. All of the signals I see coming out of the
:10:57. > :10:59.White is that Barack Obama has no appetite for intervention -- out of
:11:00. > :11:02.the White House. I don't think he does have an appetite. He would be
:11:03. > :11:09.very unlikely to do anything very large. He might feel pressured to
:11:10. > :11:14.act because of the fact that this particular group, this Al-Qaeda
:11:15. > :11:20.inspired group, fits into the strategy he has pursued in Yemen and
:11:21. > :11:24.Afghanistan and Pakistan, to use drone strikes against individual
:11:25. > :11:34.terrorists. So it is possible that the threat of ISIS in the region and
:11:35. > :11:40.the West in general might inspire him to act, but the idea he will do
:11:41. > :11:44.enough, militarily, to transform Iraq from its current state of civil
:11:45. > :11:49.War into something along the lines that Mark was talking about,
:11:50. > :11:56.nation-building diplomacy, a big operation, I don't see President
:11:57. > :11:59.Obama sees his historic mission as having got the United States as out
:12:00. > :12:07.of it. Leave it to the Pacific, perhaps. What would the Kurds like
:12:08. > :12:09.the West to do? First of all, in Kurdistan we face a huge
:12:10. > :12:14.humanitarian crisis. We already have had bought a quarter of a million
:12:15. > :12:17.Syrian refugees and we were struggling to cope with that. And
:12:18. > :12:23.now we have at least double that number of refugees coming from
:12:24. > :12:28.Mosul. First and foremost, we are calling on the international
:12:29. > :12:31.community to help us with that. So we need humanitarian aid? Let's
:12:32. > :12:36.assume we do that in some way, maybe not enough, but what else if
:12:37. > :12:42.anything? I think it is an incumbent on the west and other powers to
:12:43. > :12:49.assist Iraq to get rid of ISIS. I think the Sunni Arab community, some
:12:50. > :12:52.of whom have joined ISIS and may be supported the uprising, have
:12:53. > :12:59.justified complaints against the federal government. But we need the
:13:00. > :13:03.terrorists out of Iraq. That is first and foremost. And what the
:13:04. > :13:06.West can do is not necessarily intervene with boots on the ground,
:13:07. > :13:09.but provide technical assistance, provide intelligence and help the
:13:10. > :13:16.Iraqi army and air force to be more targeted. Can you defend yourselves?
:13:17. > :13:23.In Kurdistan, we can in terms of the disciplined troops. In this
:13:24. > :13:27.situation, I hope they won't be abandoning their post, that is for
:13:28. > :13:32.sure. It is a national cause fires. But we are not armed in the way that
:13:33. > :13:36.the Iraqi army is -- cause for us. We are not armed in the way that
:13:37. > :13:41.ISIS seems to be now they have seized some of the American kit. We
:13:42. > :13:45.are not asking for weapons, but we ask for assistance for all of Iraq
:13:46. > :13:51.to deal with the situation. Mark, this is not just an Iraqi problem.
:13:52. > :13:53.This is a regional conflict, and from the Levant on the shores of the
:13:54. > :13:58.Mediterranean, all the way through to the Gulf, the region is gripped
:13:59. > :14:04.with what is essentially a Sunni and Shia Muslim sectarian war. Yes, with
:14:05. > :14:08.the caveats that Mark bourbon made earlier, it's not quite that
:14:09. > :14:13.straightforward, but the basic divide is exactly that -- Mark
:14:14. > :14:16.Urban. People have been looking for this to begin in Lebanon or Jordan
:14:17. > :14:20.and have been taken by surprise although with hindsight I'm not sure
:14:21. > :14:26.why, that it has begun in Iraq instead. At its most extreme, it
:14:27. > :14:30.risks redrawing the 20th century boundaries of the region in a way
:14:31. > :14:35.which would be highly unstable because it would pit a Shia Muslim
:14:36. > :14:40.bloc against the Sunni Muslim bloc and would undo all of the sort of
:14:41. > :14:45.social and economic advance of the last century, so the stakes are
:14:46. > :14:51.suddenly very, very high indeed. Are we seeing the redrawing? The lines
:14:52. > :14:54.were drawn secretly, not far from here, about a mile away, and may
:14:55. > :15:00.have survived through thick and thin. They now look pretty fragile.
:15:01. > :15:08.The map is being redrawn. I think it is true that there is a key factor
:15:09. > :15:14.partition going on -- des facto. Woodrow Wilson probably gave a bit
:15:15. > :15:18.of a hand to the promotion of the idea of self-determination, and in a
:15:19. > :15:21.way, there is a self determination going on, particularly in the
:15:22. > :15:25.Kurdish region, and perhaps they may end up the big winners in all of
:15:26. > :15:30.this, because they have proceeded with a relatively moderate,
:15:31. > :15:39.reconcilable government. The key thing that the Kurdish region has
:15:40. > :15:44.done. They used to fight the two groups, and now they fight together.
:15:45. > :15:49.What the Sunni Muslims have not done is figure out how to let politics
:15:50. > :15:58.let the side things instead of guns. We need to look clearly and in Syria
:15:59. > :16:06.and Iraq, if there is a Sunni extremist with ISIS that carves out
:16:07. > :16:10.a place for itself, it will be the great irony of the modern era.
:16:11. > :16:17.President Bush said he wanted to go into Iraq to fight terrorism. There
:16:18. > :16:22.was no terrorist. There are now. If in Iraq and Syria together thereat a
:16:23. > :16:28.thousand strong Al-Qaeda capability that threatens the region, the
:16:29. > :16:47.West, the world, we are all going to have to do something about it.
:16:48. > :16:58.The danger is that power will spread. This could grow in power.
:16:59. > :17:03.You would not want it on your southern border. Absolutely, we
:17:04. > :17:06.would not. The point we are all making indirectly is that things
:17:07. > :17:11.have changed in Iraq and will never be the same again. Whether Iraq
:17:12. > :17:13.completely disintegrates into three countries, or whether it stays
:17:14. > :17:15.together as one country, but a countries, or whether it stays
:17:16. > :17:21.together as one country, but loose federation, either way, Iraq has
:17:22. > :17:26.changed. It will not go back to what it was. I hope it will change for
:17:27. > :17:34.the better. I think we're at the make or break point for Iraq. Either
:17:35. > :17:38.the political readers -- the political leaders of a right wake up
:17:39. > :17:42.and smell the coffee and put aside their differences or there will be
:17:43. > :17:49.problems. This provides that opportunity, in a very nasty way. If
:17:50. > :17:55.we take it? Yes, and if not, I think this is the end of a rack as we know
:17:56. > :18:03.it. If anything resembling a caliphate emerges, that is very
:18:04. > :18:06.destabilising for the region itself. More so I would suggest than even
:18:07. > :18:11.the Taliban and Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. At some stage, you have
:18:12. > :18:25.to assume that they will be coming for us. That is correct. This is
:18:26. > :18:29.extremely dangerous. The only way forward is for these political
:18:30. > :18:33.groups to talk to each other and find a compromise that allows the
:18:34. > :18:36.rates of cinemas and minorities in Iraq to be protected within or the
:18:37. > :18:40.rates of cinemas and minorities in Iraq to be protected with an
:18:41. > :18:44.autonomous federal-state. Any support for the government must be
:18:45. > :18:57.premised on that. There is no military solution for this which is
:18:58. > :19:04.in during -- there is no military solution for this. There must be
:19:05. > :19:08.serious political negotiation, not with ISIS, but with Sunni Muslim
:19:09. > :19:13.moderates, to form a more representative government. This is
:19:14. > :19:18.the last chance for Iraq. I think we are all saying that that is going to
:19:19. > :19:21.need to be some major western leadership to make some big
:19:22. > :19:26.decisions here for the future of the region. I am concerned that after
:19:27. > :19:31.Afghanistan and Iraq, my country is quite world-weary, quite
:19:32. > :19:37.world-weary. It does not seem to be giving leadership. Certainly we are
:19:38. > :19:40.not seeing that in Europe. I am deeply concerned that we are not
:19:41. > :19:46.going to take the leadership role that needs to be taken. These are
:19:47. > :19:51.big issues. When Britain and France carved up the Middle East, they were
:19:52. > :19:55.world powers, operating as global powers, and without that global
:19:56. > :19:59.leadership by somebody, this is just going to get worse and worse. I
:20:00. > :20:04.think we will leave it there, thank you very much.
:20:05. > :20:09.The danger is that power will spread. This could grow in power.
:20:10. > :20:12.It is just under 100 days until the referendum on Scottish independence.
:20:13. > :20:14.So, for once, it'll be a long hot-summer
:20:15. > :20:19.But the campaign isn't just getting heated.
:20:20. > :20:21.In places it's also down-right nasty. When
:20:22. > :20:23.Scotland's best-selling author announced she was giving
:20:24. > :20:25.the unionist cause a million pounds this week, she received
:20:26. > :20:33.Independence supporters online, so-called cybernats,
:20:34. > :20:36.called JK Rowling a traitor and much worse, using a variety of
:20:37. > :20:39.For its part, the Better Together campaign has been accused
:20:40. > :20:43.Even Gordon Brown seems to think so, and this week he criticised
:20:44. > :20:45.Conservative ministers for relying on "threats
:20:46. > :20:50.With the Edinburgh Festival approaching, reports suggest even
:20:51. > :20:52.comedians are now reluctant to engage in the subject because
:20:53. > :20:59.I'm joined by Blair Jenkins from Yes Scotland and Jackie Baillie
:21:00. > :21:14.They're both in our Glasgow studio, and they're going head to head.
:21:15. > :21:20.Blair Jenkins, let me come to you first. Why have you and the Better
:21:21. > :21:24.Together campaign and Alex Salmond not done more to slap down the cyber
:21:25. > :21:29.nationalists who are poisoning the debate? Good morning. I think both
:21:30. > :21:33.sides tried to stop the tiny number of people on both sides who are
:21:34. > :21:39.incapable of controlling themselves. We should not get this
:21:40. > :21:43.out of proportion. We are having a fantastic, decent and democratic
:21:44. > :21:48.debate. The people who probably total no more than 100 on both sides
:21:49. > :21:52.who post offensive material or not to be allowed to deflect from that
:21:53. > :21:56.fact. Of course there are nasty people on the Better Together side
:21:57. > :22:00.as well, but are you saying there are as many of those as the cyber
:22:01. > :22:06.nationalists? I have not done the Kent. Lots of people are certainly
:22:07. > :22:11.posting nasty in defensive things to people in the yes campaigners well.
:22:12. > :22:17.I imagine that people do what I do, and block them. You stop them from
:22:18. > :22:23.sending anything further. There is a democratic and in gauging progress
:22:24. > :22:27.going on throughout Scotland. It is characterised by good humour and
:22:28. > :22:33.good debate. We should not get out of proportion and the activities of
:22:34. > :22:36.the number of people. I want to get to Jackie Baillie. The debate is
:22:37. > :22:40.actually pretty good-humoured and you should be doing more about the
:22:41. > :22:46.nasties on your side as well? I think we have reached a new low this
:22:47. > :22:48.week. Despite many people engaging in the politics of the decision and
:22:49. > :22:55.the debate about that, whether we want to retain the best of both
:22:56. > :22:59.worlds are separate from the United Kingdom, what we have seen is the
:23:00. > :23:07.most abusive and vitriolic attack, particularly on women, JK Rowling
:23:08. > :23:11.and a Labour supporter who dared to support the no campaign. When you
:23:12. > :23:16.look at the number of people on social media, there are more from
:23:17. > :23:22.the yes campaign than the no site. We should all be condemning attacks,
:23:23. > :23:29.from whatever quarter they come. This seemed to be connected to the
:23:30. > :23:33.office of the First Minister. What is the evidence for that? There was
:23:34. > :23:38.an e-mail from one of the... I understand about that, but it did
:23:39. > :23:47.not use vile words. It did not, but it repeated the same mistake as on
:23:48. > :23:52.the website. We should be clear that we need to condemn these attacks,
:23:53. > :23:57.but it is not just the water works, it is taking action. There was an
:23:58. > :24:02.IpsosMORI poll this week which was varying testing. It showed the
:24:03. > :24:05.population as a whole, farmer people think that Yes Scotland is running
:24:06. > :24:13.an effective campaign as against Better Together. It is a undecided
:24:14. > :24:20.voters think this by a majority of four 21. Some people are worried
:24:21. > :24:26.about of the campaign. JK Rowling, Scotland's most successful author of
:24:27. > :24:29.all time. She gives ?1 million to the Better Together campaign. She
:24:30. > :24:37.then faces some of the most incredible abuse. I know what it is
:24:38. > :24:43.like because I have had some myself. Traitor, Quisling. I cannot use some
:24:44. > :24:46.of the words, it is Sunday morning. Why does Scottish Nationalists
:24:47. > :24:52.culture have such a revolting fringe? JK Rowling is entitled to
:24:53. > :24:54.our views and it is unacceptable if people say offensive things about
:24:55. > :25:00.her or anyone else who voices and opinion in this debate. Who are
:25:01. > :25:03.obese people? When you look at the accounts of some of the people who
:25:04. > :25:09.were posting these things about JK Rowling, they were using the same
:25:10. > :25:16.sort of language about film stars and football stars. This was just
:25:17. > :25:21.part of their language on Twitter. How often has Alex Salmond condemned
:25:22. > :25:27.the cyber nationalists? Very often. Everyone in the campaign hands. By
:25:28. > :25:29.common consent, Yes Scotland is running a thoroughly positive
:25:30. > :25:35.campaign, much more positive than Better Together. Jackie Baillie, it
:25:36. > :25:41.hardly helps matters when Alistair Darling, who runs your campaign,
:25:42. > :25:46.compares Alex Salmond to Kim Jong Il and North Korea. That hardly
:25:47. > :25:50.elevates the debate? I think we need to elevate the debate. There are
:25:51. > :25:59.less than a hundred days to go. It is a massive decision. We need to
:26:00. > :26:03.elevate the debate beyond attacks. I think there is much more that Yes
:26:04. > :26:12.Scotland and the SNP can do. You have made that point. Why are you
:26:13. > :26:17.running a campaign based on fear? The codename of your campaign is
:26:18. > :26:22.even project fear. It is threats. You cannot have the pound, there
:26:23. > :26:27.will be no shipbuilding. You will be flooded by immigrants. Why are you
:26:28. > :26:32.so negative? I am not negative at all and neither is the campaign. The
:26:33. > :26:35.campaign has asked questions and I think it is legitimate to ask
:26:36. > :26:40.questions of the people proposing such a fundamental change. People
:26:41. > :26:44.care about the economy, their jobs, their families. What would happen to
:26:45. > :26:50.them if they leave the rest of the United Kingdom. I think it is
:26:51. > :26:55.legitimate to ask questions. I refuse to be asked of
:26:56. > :27:01.scaremongering. People deserve answers. The yes campaign is equally
:27:02. > :27:09.guilty of some of the most outrageous scaremongering. Maybe you
:27:10. > :27:14.are both scaremongering. Blair Jenkins, the First Minister said of
:27:15. > :27:20.the cyber nationalists, that they are just Daft folk, as if they were
:27:21. > :27:24.mischievous little children. It is worse than that. When you look at
:27:25. > :27:31.what they say, they are twisted, perhaps even evil minds. I would not
:27:32. > :27:35.disagree with his comments, but they are directed at just a small number
:27:36. > :27:39.of people. The story of this campaign is not the story of what
:27:40. > :27:43.people are saying on Twitter. Around Scotland, lots of people are getting
:27:44. > :27:51.engaged in debate to have been tuned out of the political process. Today,
:27:52. > :27:56.we have 47% support for the yes campaign. The movement in the
:27:57. > :28:02.campaign is towards yes. People know we have a better campaign, a vision
:28:03. > :28:06.for Scotland. The latest poll of polls does not show that. Both
:28:07. > :28:11.sides, you always take the opinion polls that show you in the best
:28:12. > :28:15.light. All politicians do that. Jackie Baillie, your campaign is not
:28:16. > :28:24.just negative, it is patronising. You make dubious claims that Scots
:28:25. > :28:31.would be ?1400 better off by staying in the union, and then you say that
:28:32. > :28:33.the kids use the money to scoff 280 hotdogs at the Edinburgh Festival.
:28:34. > :28:40.The fate of the nation is in your hands and that is the best you can
:28:41. > :28:46.do? I think you will find that the campaign is something that we are
:28:47. > :28:52.taking the message to people. Then why are you talking about hotdogs? I
:28:53. > :28:56.do not. The campaign did. We are taking a positive message to people
:28:57. > :29:00.across Scotland about the benefits of the United Kingdom. We believe we
:29:01. > :29:04.are stronger and more secure and more stable, being part of that
:29:05. > :29:10.family of nations that is the United Kingdom. At the same time, we have
:29:11. > :29:16.the strange and power over things like education and transport. I
:29:17. > :29:20.understand that. I am not doing the issues today, I am talking about the
:29:21. > :29:25.tone of the campaign. I have one very important question. Who would
:29:26. > :29:31.you supporting last night in the England-Italy match? I was not
:29:32. > :29:36.watching the game. I would be delighted to see England do well in
:29:37. > :29:41.this tournament. I have Argentina in the office sweepstake. I have to
:29:42. > :29:45.keep some attention on them, but I would be delighted to seeing Clint
:29:46. > :29:53.do well. That is because you think it will help your campaign. It will
:29:54. > :29:54.annoy the Scots. Jackie Baillie? I was supporting England. I was also
:29:55. > :30:00.supporting Portugal. Now most of you probably missed last
:30:01. > :30:03.night's football match between England and Italy because
:30:04. > :30:06.you wanted to get an early night and England lost
:30:07. > :30:10.despite a plucky effort, I'm told. But even Westminster is
:30:11. > :30:13.in the grip of World Cup fever and with speculation
:30:14. > :30:15.about the fitness of each political party's team we sent Adam out to
:30:16. > :30:22.tackle some of the big players. Well, this is
:30:23. > :30:35.the closest I'll get to Rio. This year everybody seems to have
:30:36. > :30:40.gone a bit mad Belize, football stickers. Let's see who I will get.
:30:41. > :30:46.Oh, the suspense -- a bit mad for these. George Osborne? That is
:30:47. > :30:49.because we leapt on the bandwagon and made Alan political stickers.
:30:50. > :30:51.They're hotter than a Brazilian barbecue.
:30:52. > :30:53.And at Westminster they're turning into collector?s items.
:30:54. > :31:03.Sunday politics political stickers. We have one of you, Norman. Would
:31:04. > :31:05.you like it? Do you want to start collecting, Bob? Would you like a
:31:06. > :31:05.packet? collecting, Bob? Would you like a
:31:06. > :31:13.Thank you. No album, I'm afraid. collecting, Bob? Would you like a
:31:14. > :31:19.Thank you. No album, I've got Michael Gove, next to to Reza, and
:31:20. > :31:25.two of the Prime Minister. -- next to Theresa. I am sure Michael has
:31:26. > :31:27.Theresa in her stick around, and vice versa.
:31:28. > :31:29.These Tory ones are proving very popular
:31:30. > :31:32.since she fell out with him out how to handle extremism in schools.
:31:33. > :31:35.And there's been open speculation about him taking on him in
:31:36. > :31:43.Then there are rumours of a reshuffle of the whole Tory album.
:31:44. > :31:53.Do you think there will be any swapping in the Tory leadership
:31:54. > :31:56.soon? Who knows? David Cameron has also got to replace the EU
:31:57. > :31:58.commissioner, Cathy Ashton, who is standing down.
:31:59. > :32:00.Does he go with the favourite the former health secretary
:32:01. > :32:03.Or the grassroots choice, Martin Callanan, the Tories old
:32:04. > :32:07.Or does he rehabilitate Andrew Mitchell after Plebgate?
:32:08. > :32:22.Do you fancy being European Commissioner? I would rather be
:32:23. > :32:24.spending the money on the world's poor and spending it well. Glad to
:32:25. > :32:26.hear it. Happy collecting. Right, there must be some Labour
:32:27. > :32:34.stickers out there. You don't want to swap Ed Balls any
:32:35. > :32:37.of the others? Can't I keep them all? This is almost the perfect
:32:38. > :32:38.team. There have been grumblings
:32:39. > :32:41.about the fitness of the Shadow And Ed Miliband's got a kicking
:32:42. > :32:45.in Liverpool after posing I'm told grown men are meeting up
:32:46. > :32:56.in pubs for sticker swaps - With Danny Finkelstein -
:32:57. > :33:10.Tory peer and Times columnist, He would be the card I would not
:33:11. > :33:15.want to trade. Do people want to trade him in? I don't think anybody
:33:16. > :33:18.wants to trade him in at the moment. He is the best person to lead the
:33:19. > :33:22.Labour party and will lead us into the next election. There's been a
:33:23. > :33:25.lot about Michael Gove, and he's very combative. That's been a huge
:33:26. > :33:28.strength as an education Secretary, despite the fact it's brought in
:33:29. > :33:31.trouble. I would think the prime minister would tell him not to get
:33:32. > :33:37.himself into peripheral battles at the moment but stick to what has
:33:38. > :33:44.been successful. I haven't got Nick Clegg, but I got me. Controversy
:33:45. > :33:47.amongst collectors of Lib Dems. I need to give away me in return for
:33:48. > :33:51.Nick Clegg. That would be far better. There you are.
:33:52. > :33:54.Some local parties are holding meetings about his leadership,
:33:55. > :33:58.but at one in Cambridge this week they voted to stick with him.
:33:59. > :34:08.You have got a Euro Commissioner. Why don't I swap, I will swap Ed
:34:09. > :34:13.Miliband for Tim Farren. Can I do that? What is the significance of
:34:14. > :34:16.that? Very significant. Happy collecting.
:34:17. > :34:19.These beauties are popping up everywhere, but sadly they won't
:34:20. > :34:29.Adam is still doing the samba around Westminster as I speak.
:34:30. > :34:31.I'm joined by three journalists who've been
:34:32. > :34:33.furiously swapping stickers throughout the show, they certainly
:34:34. > :34:36.weren't allowed to stay up to watch the football, it's Nick Watt,
:34:37. > :34:45.We will talk about Labour after the break, and I want to concentrate on
:34:46. > :34:50.the Tories, but the moment, Nick, senior Tories are saying privately
:34:51. > :34:57.that they might win next May. They are beginning to dream the dream. So
:34:58. > :35:04.why are they doing all this jockeying? I think the jockeying for
:35:05. > :35:11.the leadership is about a year old. What stoped it up was when Theresa
:35:12. > :35:14.gave a speech to the conference, and people said she was doing it just in
:35:15. > :35:19.case, when things were not looking too good. She is not on manoeuvres.
:35:20. > :35:23.I think it was a policy row that drove the differences with Michael
:35:24. > :35:26.Gove. But Michael Gove is on manoeuvres, and he is trying to
:35:27. > :35:33.protect George Osborne from, he believes, a serious threat from
:35:34. > :35:36.Boris Johnson and possibly Theresa. It is quite self-indulgent when you
:35:37. > :35:39.are a couple of points behind, the economy is going your way, to be
:35:40. > :35:50.involved in this sort of stuff. Extraordinary. It shows the toxic
:35:51. > :35:54.disease that gnaws at the entrails of the Tory party, and Cameron is
:35:55. > :35:59.their great asset. He is more popular than the party, he bridges
:36:00. > :36:02.the gap is, and he has an extraordinary dissemble and some
:36:03. > :36:06.pretending to be this moderate while never the lens -- nevertheless
:36:07. > :36:09.leading the most far right wing government we have had since the
:36:10. > :36:13.war, and that has been a brilliant piece of political Charente and they
:36:14. > :36:16.would be crazy to get rid of it -- political Charente.
:36:17. > :36:20.piece of political Charente and they would be crazy to get rid of it --
:36:21. > :36:23.charades. Does this rumble on? I have an unfashionable view as there
:36:24. > :36:28.aren't half as many leadership plots taking place in Westminster as we
:36:29. > :36:32.assume, and the willingness to read strategic calculation into anything
:36:33. > :36:38.that takes place comes from people watching I Claudius or house of
:36:39. > :36:43.cards. That hasn't been off -- on for years. I needed a reference from
:36:44. > :36:48.your time. I needed something. Maybe brief encounter? It's a stylised
:36:49. > :36:53.view of how politics works, and so much more in life is about
:36:54. > :36:58.randomness and mistakes. Boris Johnson, Theresa May, Michael Gove
:36:59. > :37:04.as George Osborne's man on earth, they are positioning themselves. --
:37:05. > :37:11.Janan wrote an eloquent comment this week about this, but there are
:37:12. > :37:13.certain realities that. Michael Gove had that famous dinner with Rupert
:37:14. > :37:16.Murdoch a few weeks ago in which he said that you must not make Boris
:37:17. > :37:22.Johnson leader of the Conservative party, George Osborne is my man.
:37:23. > :37:25.Theresa May set out her credo two years ago and people on her team
:37:26. > :37:29.were saying that she was doing it just in case. People are out there
:37:30. > :37:34.and are thinking of the future, but I do think Janan is right. In the
:37:35. > :37:40.village, in the thick of it mindset, you can get a bit carried away and
:37:41. > :37:49.you can be a bit in the famous. That is before your era. He died. What
:37:50. > :37:51.did he mean by it. You can get a bit carried away by it. I will have
:37:52. > :37:54.words with you during the break. It's just gone 11.35, you're
:37:55. > :37:56.watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers
:37:57. > :37:59.in Scotland who leave us now Coming up here in 20 minutes, we'll
:38:00. > :38:13.be talking about Ed Miliband's Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics
:38:14. > :38:15.in Northern Ireland. The police say they'll take a harder
:38:16. > :38:18.line on loyalist flags in one mixed area of Belfast but what are
:38:19. > :38:21.the chances of brokering a lasting We're joined by three party leaders
:38:22. > :38:25.to discuss this perennial problem. And with a draft document on racial
:38:26. > :38:30.equality here raising possible We ask the former Home Secretary,
:38:31. > :38:35.Alan Johnson, about how Westminster And here with their thoughts on that
:38:36. > :38:41.and more are commentators Cathy It's been dubbed the most
:38:42. > :38:50.significant development in years The police
:38:51. > :38:57.in south Belfast have said they'll be treating the erection of any more
:38:58. > :39:00.loyalist flags in one mixed area The SDLP has demanded
:39:01. > :39:04.the policy be extended across Northern Ireland, while
:39:05. > :39:07.loyalists call it an unworkable decision, and say action must now be
:39:08. > :39:10.taken against Irish tricolours. Joining me now to discuss
:39:11. > :39:13.the development are the Ulster Unionist leader, Mike Nesbitt, the
:39:14. > :39:15.SDLP leader, Alasdair McDonnell, and Do you accept that it's unreasonable
:39:16. > :39:26.for the Ormeau Road, which is 57% Catholic, to have 3 or 3 flags
:39:27. > :39:44.on virtually every lamp post? What is unreasonable is that Sinn
:39:45. > :39:47.Fein continues the decision. I think they need to describe what they mean
:39:48. > :39:52.by Loyalist flacks. The coverage I've seen on BBC was. Flags and the
:39:53. > :39:57.flag of the nation. I think we need to be careful about the tone. From
:39:58. > :40:04.my point of view, until questions are answered, we have a lot of
:40:05. > :40:10.questions to ask. What is unreasonable about the police
:40:11. > :40:16.thinking very carefully about the flying of Loyalist flags, Ulster
:40:17. > :40:19.flags, union flags in an area where people may be uncomfortable about
:40:20. > :40:29.that? What is unreasonable is that Sinn Fein had a meeting on their
:40:30. > :40:37.own, no other elected representatives is to any political
:40:38. > :40:41.party is entitled to do that. They should have consulted people.
:40:42. > :40:43.Considering people are going to get involved about discussions with
:40:44. > :40:44.flags and everything else, we have one party running off now. My
:40:45. > :41:22.problem with this is, date tricolour removed from his
:41:23. > :41:25.office. The IRA put up thousands of flights. Let's not get into this
:41:26. > :41:31.debate about how many flags there are. It doesn't matter if there is
:41:32. > :41:42.one or 100. There are flags flying fair. Republicans will put flags up
:41:43. > :41:45.in the next few months. What is your advice to loyalists watching this?
:41:46. > :41:51.Is it put up more flags or think seriously about taking them down? My
:41:52. > :41:56.advice to the police... What is your advice to the loyalists? Is this
:41:57. > :42:02.part of the rule of law? You have made that point. I'm asking you a
:42:03. > :42:07.question. I am responding to your question. What I'm saying to you is
:42:08. > :42:10.that we already, in this society, live in a two tiered justice system
:42:11. > :42:14.and I want to make sure that doesn't happen. That we ask you again. What
:42:15. > :42:23.is your advice to loyalists about flags? But more up or taken down?
:42:24. > :42:33.You can't answer that question. I will answer the question once get
:42:34. > :42:38.answers from the PS of I. I am relieved and pleased that the police
:42:39. > :42:42.have taken this small step because flags have been contentious and
:42:43. > :42:46.annoying and irritating to ordinary people for a long time. People are
:42:47. > :42:52.threatened and intimidated, and bullied in their own homes by folks
:42:53. > :42:57.going around putting up flags. The flags issue needs to be dealt with.
:42:58. > :43:02.As far as I'm concerned, the less flags the better. Sinn Fein did
:43:03. > :43:06.everybody a by lobbying to get the statement on Thursday night. I think
:43:07. > :43:10.it was the right thing to do and I think that quite simply, we have
:43:11. > :43:17.been pressing the police for the last 15 years to take some action
:43:18. > :43:24.around the illegal and inappropriate flying flags. This is no respect to
:43:25. > :43:32.the union flag, or, the Irish tricolour where it has been flown in
:43:33. > :43:38.reciprocal circumstances. Do you also have reservations? Sovereign
:43:39. > :43:42.flags should be flown with respect at appropriate places. They should
:43:43. > :43:47.not be used to poke people in the eye. They should not be used as an
:43:48. > :43:53.instrument of sectarian division. I cringed and some of the
:43:54. > :43:57.circumstances. My loyalties to the Irish tricolour. In some places, it
:43:58. > :44:03.is used and abused. Flags should not be used to disturb people living in
:44:04. > :44:08.their homes. Every year at this time, for the last 15 years, I have
:44:09. > :44:11.had since agitation from people, many of them from a unionist
:44:12. > :44:17.background, who just don't want flags flown in their face stop do
:44:18. > :44:21.you have reservations about the flying of these many flags in this
:44:22. > :44:26.area of south Belfast? The first thing is, I am clear that where we
:44:27. > :44:30.are is a long way from where we need to be. I think I know the steps we
:44:31. > :44:34.should take and the sequence they go in. We don't all agree on that. You
:44:35. > :44:38.can look around and see if there is a law you can use to try and
:44:39. > :44:42.restrict the flying flags in contested areas. That may change
:44:43. > :44:49.behaviour. It will not address the mindset. It's a bit like saying we
:44:50. > :44:54.empower the headmaster to issue six of the best. It might change a
:44:55. > :44:58.child's behaviour but it will not change mindsets. It is mindset is we
:44:59. > :45:03.need to get to. If loyalists are using the union flag as a
:45:04. > :45:08.provocation, they are making a fundamental mistake, confusing
:45:09. > :45:12.sovereignty with identity. I would say the flag is not about being
:45:13. > :45:18.provocative. It is about offering a symbol of protection, about being
:45:19. > :45:22.British, tolerance, of a pluralist, progressive society. Is that what
:45:23. > :45:28.the display suggests to you? Is that about pluralism and tolerance, or
:45:29. > :45:33.something else? Some people on the ground seemed to be considered. It
:45:34. > :45:36.is pulling the union flag down into a debate about identity. The union
:45:37. > :45:42.flag should fly well above that debate. Would you rather see these
:45:43. > :45:46.flags removed? If there is a lesson of the last 18 months, if you bring
:45:47. > :45:52.one union flag down, thousands more will go up. That sounds of the
:45:53. > :45:56.justification. What I want to do is take a practical approach to this.
:45:57. > :46:00.If you want to change behaviours, addressed the mindsets that inform
:46:01. > :46:08.those behaviours. In the meantime, what do you do about it? What do you
:46:09. > :46:13.say to loyalists? Should they put more flags up or should they bring
:46:14. > :46:18.these flags down? Enough is enough. We need to have a debate on the
:46:19. > :46:21.political leadership. That is why I have asked the party leaders to
:46:22. > :46:25.decouple the issues and taken in a sequence, so we have some degree of
:46:26. > :46:31.hope of success, in terms of parades, flags of the past. Billy
:46:32. > :46:35.Hutchinson, Mike Nesbitt is clear. He answered the question which is
:46:36. > :46:39.dead but more flags. US students the opportunity to do that and that is
:46:40. > :46:44.your right. How do you take this debate forward from here? It is
:46:45. > :46:46.clear listening to this debate that I'm not even clear who we are
:46:47. > :46:53.talking about. The word loyalist have been used. It seems to be that
:46:54. > :47:00.the loyalist Tim is used in a derogatory sense. I don't know what
:47:01. > :47:03.your description is. I heard you on the radio on Friday saying you were
:47:04. > :47:09.not a loyalist leader which is news to me. I am not a loyalist leader.
:47:10. > :47:13.What the problem is, there are more loyalist leaders than there are
:47:14. > :47:19.leaders of the Communist Party. What does it say in the title of the
:47:20. > :47:25.Progressive Unionist party? Are you disassociating yourself? What I am
:47:26. > :47:29.not to allow you to do is to say I am a loyalist and use it as a double
:47:30. > :47:36.treat him. It is when it comes to be media. If I use it, is to rob a true
:47:37. > :47:41.but if you use it it's not? What you have just done is you have said
:47:42. > :47:47.loyalists have put these flags up. How sure are you that they were not
:47:48. > :47:57.Unionists that personal? - that put them up. Stop trying to be clever. I
:47:58. > :48:01.am not trying to be clever. It is a fair assumption that loyalists put
:48:02. > :48:09.the flags up. Let's get the argument right. You saying it that it was
:48:10. > :48:23.protestants? I do. Is this what we want to get into, a game? I have
:48:24. > :48:31.said to you that I won't PSNI go to Republicans to tell them not to put
:48:32. > :48:35.the tricolour is up. You have said that loyalists have been warned. I
:48:36. > :48:40.would like to know who these loyalists are who have been warned.
:48:41. > :48:46.I don't know who they are. You will have two ask the peace. - police.
:48:47. > :48:48.The police said they spoke to individuals and they made it clear
:48:49. > :48:56.that if there was a repeat performance, they would regard that
:48:57. > :49:02.as a breach of the police. There is no mystery. The police monitor flags
:49:03. > :49:11.going up and they have accompanied... Again, we go back to
:49:12. > :49:14.the point. They have been present as the flags have been put up. They
:49:15. > :49:20.have been there to ensure that there was no social unrest, let's say.
:49:21. > :49:24.They were there. This has been a subject of contention with local
:49:25. > :49:33.people. A final thought from you, Mike Nesbitt. It's dancing on the
:49:34. > :49:39.head of a pin about who it was. Let me say, I need a political party,
:49:40. > :49:44.not a religious organisation. I get what Billy is saying. Sometimes,
:49:45. > :49:50.people who are from working-class areas think that people in
:49:51. > :49:57.middle-class areas look at them as loyalists. I don't like that. Beyond
:49:58. > :50:00.that, we are in a situation here which is potentially pretty
:50:01. > :50:03.volatile. The police are in an extremely difficult position, where,
:50:04. > :50:06.as always, they are going to have to make a decision between upholding
:50:07. > :50:11.the letter of the law and maintaining the peace. It is
:50:12. > :50:14.incumbent upon all political leaders to do their best to support the
:50:15. > :50:16.police and we need to have conversations with the people
:50:17. > :50:20.putting those flags up because I don't know whether they are using
:50:21. > :50:23.them to say this is the sovereign State of Northern Ireland or whether
:50:24. > :50:28.they are using them as a weapon. The latter is a mistake. We will leave
:50:29. > :50:37.it there for now. It's here from our guest commentators.
:50:38. > :50:39.Joining me is the University of Ulster academic,
:50:40. > :50:41.Dr Cathy Gormley-Heenan, and the former Victims'
:50:42. > :50:47.Where are we? We are getting somewhere in terms of establishing
:50:48. > :50:52.the difference between principles and practice. I was heartened to
:50:53. > :50:56.hear some of the language of those principles used by party leaders
:50:57. > :51:03.today. There was discussion of consultation, tolerance and respect
:51:04. > :51:07.and they are very important principles. What we are witnessing
:51:08. > :51:10.is an undermining of those principles in practice. I go back to
:51:11. > :51:15.the point about consultation. The question is this: Was the local
:51:16. > :51:22.community consulted about whether they wanted to have flags in their
:51:23. > :51:26.area corrected or not? As taxpayers in Belfast, is that something they
:51:27. > :51:30.are entitled to, to have a say in how their community is represented?
:51:31. > :51:34.The council will put up hanging baskets to make the area look nice
:51:35. > :51:40.and so on. Why is the community not have a say in how their area is
:51:41. > :51:44.represented? Patricia, do you think it matters? Maybe it is important
:51:45. > :51:47.whether these flags were put up by loyalists, Unionists or
:51:48. > :51:53.Protestants. It doesn't matter. What matters is what it was designed to
:51:54. > :51:56.do is mark out territory which can intimidate people. What I am more
:51:57. > :52:05.concerned about is the way the decision was made by the PSNI two
:52:06. > :52:11.treaties future putting up - to treat these putting up flags as a...
:52:12. > :52:15.Not without political leadership, without any sort of legislative
:52:16. > :52:18.framework to work against, what is going to happen is they will be left
:52:19. > :52:23.open to accusations of political policing. We are going to move back
:52:24. > :52:28.in the political process if that happens. What we need from the
:52:29. > :52:31.political parties and from the leadership is to move these
:52:32. > :52:35.discussions on around flags, parades and dealing with the past. We
:52:36. > :52:41.mustn't have that political vacuum, so that the PSNI is operating on a
:52:42. > :52:43.legislative framework as they should do. Thanks to our pit leaders for
:52:44. > :53:00.joining us this morning. Could the proposals be revived? I
:53:01. > :53:05.have been saying for some time that I believe there is a window of
:53:06. > :53:12.opportunity between the local and European elections and the start of
:53:13. > :53:19.the summer. Flags still appeared to be a major hurdle. People have been
:53:20. > :53:30.saying we don't want these flags up. Let this not turn into, they are
:53:31. > :53:44.away every flag in the law. They are not neighbourly. Details of the
:53:45. > :53:48.long-awaited policy... The first and deputy first ministers are invited
:53:49. > :54:01.to the World Cup. Martin McGuinness finds out just how cut-throat show
:54:02. > :54:05.business can be. The Guardian describes him as a rare
:54:06. > :54:06.human among the aliens on planet Westminster.
:54:07. > :54:08.Alan Johnson, the former Labour Home Secretary,
:54:09. > :54:10.trade union leader, postman and now award-winning author,
:54:11. > :54:13.is taking part in the Belfast Book Festival this weekend but first,
:54:14. > :54:29.You continue as an active politician. But I suppose it is a
:54:30. > :54:30.different kind of involvement to the involvement you had over a long
:54:31. > :54:32.period of time. Your first ministerial post was
:54:33. > :54:35.in 1999 at the DTI, just a year How much were you aware
:54:36. > :54:56.of events here impacting Watching with appreciation for the
:54:57. > :54:59.time being spent on it. John Major started the process. I was a union
:55:00. > :55:04.leader over here. I was coming up here when postal workers were being
:55:05. > :55:10.used for proxy bombings. 21 of our members were killed in the course of
:55:11. > :55:17.action. I knew from our members over here just what a difficult situation
:55:18. > :55:22.they were in and the real groundswell for peace and
:55:23. > :55:27.politicians to dedicate more time to actual achieving that piece. The
:55:28. > :55:32.Good Friday agreement and all the stuff that arises from it, and all
:55:33. > :55:35.the problems that were there for the very brave people over here who were
:55:36. > :55:38.trying to show that you can achieve things through politics, which is a
:55:39. > :55:44.very important lesson I think for younger people in particular. We've
:55:45. > :55:47.just witnessed another studio discussion in which political
:55:48. > :55:54.leaders didn't agree. Does it surprise you? Is it disappoints you
:55:55. > :55:59.that they are still talking about key outstanding issues which they
:56:00. > :56:01.cannot get around? It doesn't surprise me it doesn't disappoint me
:56:02. > :56:05.in the sense that you are having a discussion. I was walking around
:56:06. > :56:11.Belfast just a day. I came over here throughout the late 70s and 80s.
:56:12. > :56:17.This is a transformed society. But you're not going to get rid of all
:56:18. > :56:22.those strong feelings about symbols like flags for instance very
:56:23. > :56:33.quickly. There are lots of debates which go on elsewhere. They are
:56:34. > :56:37.similar. Your former leader, Tony Blair, has been doing the rounds of
:56:38. > :56:45.the television and radio studios today talking about to go to war
:56:46. > :56:54.with Iraq, in the context of what has been happening with ISIS. He
:56:55. > :56:59.says it was still the right decision. Do you still think it was
:57:00. > :57:03.the right decision? Yes. It was the first time we had never been to war
:57:04. > :57:07.with the decision of Parliament. There was a debate in Parliament in
:57:08. > :57:14.2003. I voted in favour. I think the problem with looking with things
:57:15. > :57:18.with hindsight and saying this wouldn't have happened if we hadn't
:57:19. > :57:26.got into Iraq in 2003, is that you forget to things. Number one, you
:57:27. > :57:29.had Saddam Hussein, who was the subject of eight Article seven
:57:30. > :57:34.resolutions from United Nations. He committed genocide, not once but
:57:35. > :57:37.twice, against his own people. He had invaded invading countries. The
:57:38. > :57:39.two biggest crimes and international law. He had invaded invading
:57:40. > :57:42.countries. The two biggest crimes and international law. We have been
:57:43. > :57:45.the subject of years of UN resolutions that he ignored. We
:57:46. > :57:51.cannot ignore the fact somewhat if we had let him get away after the
:57:52. > :58:02.resolution? What would that have done to Saddam? He was a despot. The
:58:03. > :58:08.beheaded trade unionist. There were no weapons of mass destruction.
:58:09. > :58:11.Everyone thought there were mass dash there were weapons. It wasn't
:58:12. > :58:16.the main reason. We went to war because he had ignored the UN
:58:17. > :58:20.resolutions. It was a major part of the justification. We know he had
:58:21. > :58:24.weapons of mass destruction. He had used them previously, twice. It
:58:25. > :58:28.wasn't just as, France and Germany, who decided not to be part of the
:58:29. > :58:34.invasion, thought he had weapons of mass destruction. You are here to
:58:35. > :58:39.take part in the book Festival. Did you regret the fact you are now
:58:40. > :58:46.writing your memoirs instead of being the leader of the party? No, I
:58:47. > :58:50.don't regret. I don't regret anything whatsoever. I'm glad I
:58:51. > :58:54.stood for deputy leader. Harriet Harman won it. I said at the time, I
:58:55. > :59:00.was the best man in the race but there was a better woman, as is
:59:01. > :59:03.often the case. I have loved the process of writing about my
:59:04. > :59:07.childhood and trying to recreate my mother who died when I was very
:59:08. > :59:09.young, and telling a story of two incredible women, my sister and
:59:10. > :59:14.mother. That has been great. I might have been able to do that if I was
:59:15. > :59:18.debited leader, who knows, but it's still to be involved in politics as
:59:19. > :59:22.a backbencher and to be able to write and attend festivals exist. If
:59:23. > :59:26.anyone thinks the political meeting is dead and finish, come to a book
:59:27. > :59:33.Festival. They are alive and well. You are in for a roasting this
:59:34. > :59:43.afternoon. Thanks for joining us. If you final thoughts. - a feud final
:59:44. > :59:46.thoughts. A quick word on Iraq. Does it concern you, what is happening at
:59:47. > :59:53.the moment? It is usually concerning and it is a legacy of imperial
:59:54. > :59:57.interference. It's about going into Iraq, based on an erroneous decision
:59:58. > :00:02.about weapons of mass destruction. The legacy of that has been to
:00:03. > :00:07.galvanise and politicise the population of that country. I think
:00:08. > :00:17.that is why we are seeing the grossing - growth in ISIS. To me
:00:18. > :00:22.Blair is putting forward the line of denial is not just a river in Egypt.
:00:23. > :00:27.It needs to be taken responsibility for, how the British and American
:00:28. > :00:34.intervention has an influence. We had a leaked draft racial... A
:00:35. > :00:43.regional immigration policy. Is that workable? Immigration policy is
:00:44. > :00:45.reserved matter. It's not the responsibility of the devolved
:00:46. > :00:52.administration. Scotland has talked that recently. There are examples in
:00:53. > :00:56.Canada for example. The work ability of a differentiated immigration
:00:57. > :00:59.policy I don't think that is at the top of the political agenda.
:01:00. > :01:11.Interesting to hear your thoughts. Another busy programme. Goodbye.
:01:12. > :01:14.There are big changes afoot in the EU following last month's
:01:15. > :01:16.European elections, not least who'll get the top job
:01:17. > :01:20.But behind the scenes the parties have
:01:21. > :01:23.also been jockeying for position as they try to form the big groups that
:01:24. > :01:27.And UKIP seems to have been struggling to keep its influence
:01:28. > :01:36.Here's Adam to explain how it all works.
:01:37. > :01:42.If you want your party to be a big cheese in the European Parliament,
:01:43. > :01:47.you need to form a political group. By doing this, the party gets more
:01:48. > :01:52.money, more positions on committees and even more speaking rights in the
:01:53. > :01:57.chamber. But the parliament's rules are strict. And to form a group you
:01:58. > :02:01.need a group of 25 MPs from at least seven different countries. For UKIP,
:02:02. > :02:07.the number of MEPs will not be a problem because they already have 24
:02:08. > :02:09.of their own, but the different nationalities are more of a
:02:10. > :02:13.challenge. Nigel Farage was not helped by the Tories stealing --
:02:14. > :02:22.stealing his former Danish and Finnish allies, and the pen pinching
:02:23. > :02:27.his Italian charms. Nigel needs a new charm and fast. He has already
:02:28. > :02:32.signed up Lithuania's order and justice, a free citizen from Prague,
:02:33. > :02:40.and the Dutchman from the reformed political party. The big signing was
:02:41. > :02:44.the 17 members of the Italian Beppe Griego's 5-star movement, but it
:02:45. > :02:47.leaves UKIP short of two more international powers, and with the
:02:48. > :02:51.clock ticking, it looks like his hopes resting on the Swedish
:02:52. > :02:52.Democrats and the Polish new right Congress. They both make their
:02:53. > :03:04.decisions next week. What is the latest? UKIP have enough
:03:05. > :03:09.MEPs with their pals, but they need seven countries, as I understand it.
:03:10. > :03:12.They are not there yet. They are wrapped five countries and need
:03:13. > :03:16.another two. UKIP are being quite buoyant and say they will be meeting
:03:17. > :03:20.MEPs from five countries next week and are pretty confident they will
:03:21. > :03:24.get those countries, but as Adam was saying, the problem UKIP have had is
:03:25. > :03:33.that the Conservatives have nicked two of the parties. That is why they
:03:34. > :03:38.have been struggling, but they say they are confident they will do it.
:03:39. > :03:43.Meanwhile, the Tories new best friends are the German Eurosceptic
:03:44. > :03:46.party, which has put Mrs Merkel's nose out of joint, but we don't
:03:47. > :03:53.quite know whether she really cares or not. I think Cameron has played
:03:54. > :04:01.his hand badly since he committed to pulling out of the EBP. And he
:04:02. > :04:07.should be in there with Angela Merkel and if he needs to make a
:04:08. > :04:13.major renegotiation, he needs to have the Germans onside. Instead
:04:14. > :04:17.there is a breakaway party and its like supporting UKIP. His party are
:04:18. > :04:22.supporting her worst enemy. It certainly causing him a lot of
:04:23. > :04:27.problems, and undermines his negotiating position, but isn't
:04:28. > :04:31.there an honesty that the centre-right group is explicitly
:04:32. > :04:35.Federalist, and the Tories are anything but, so they came out, and
:04:36. > :04:42.Labour are in the Socialist group, which is explicitly Federalist, and
:04:43. > :04:45.they are not Federalist either. If you want support and influence in
:04:46. > :04:49.Europe, you have to trade, and he hasn't done this well. The whole
:04:50. > :04:54.business with who will be the next president, he needs Angela Merkel's
:04:55. > :04:59.support. Without that, it won't happen. He should have been trading
:05:00. > :05:06.behind-the-scenes, but he has exposed himself in public, and if he
:05:07. > :05:10.doesn't win it looks uncertain, and he will be in a position where he
:05:11. > :05:13.has to go back to his own party and say they are not getting anywhere.
:05:14. > :05:20.That is dangerous and takes us closer to the Exeter, which I don't
:05:21. > :05:25.think would want. The danger for Mr Cameron is if it is the president of
:05:26. > :05:28.the commission, he will save you cannot stop a federalist becoming
:05:29. > :05:31.head of the European commission, what chance do you have of
:05:32. > :05:39.repatriating lots of powers back to London. There are lots of Tory MPs
:05:40. > :05:44.dying to make the argument. My hunch is that he won't make it. There are
:05:45. > :05:46.too many countries opposed to his presidency and even the country
:05:47. > :05:52.notionally in favour of it, Germany, is failing in youth -- enthusiasm.
:05:53. > :05:58.Angela Merkel cannot be seen to give in to the Brits this. Her own side
:05:59. > :06:06.once it as well, though some reason the German media says it. When she
:06:07. > :06:10.tried to reach out and said to look at the other candidates, she got
:06:11. > :06:17.such abuse on the right wing press from her own country and party she
:06:18. > :06:25.had to retreat. Janan is right that there is opposition to Juncker, but
:06:26. > :06:30.as long as Cameron turns it into an argument about Britain and Europe,
:06:31. > :06:37.he will strengthen the hand of Juncker. Angela Merkel thinks
:06:38. > :06:40.Juncker is inappropriate. She did not like the process, which was a
:06:41. > :06:43.power grab by the European Parliament, but when David Cameron
:06:44. > :06:48.went to the council and said that if I don't get my way, we could leave
:06:49. > :06:54.the EU, that led to the backlash, most significantly from the SPD in
:06:55. > :06:59.Germany. As Tony Blair says, if only David Cameron had made the argument
:07:00. > :07:01.that Juncker is bad for Europe, then he would have found his natural
:07:02. > :07:06.allies would have felt more comfortable following behind. Enough
:07:07. > :07:15.Europe. I want to show you a picture. See what you think of this.
:07:16. > :07:21.When I saw that picture, I thought it was so ludicrous that it had to
:07:22. > :07:25.have been photo shop. Discuss. He is holding it with a certain disdain,
:07:26. > :07:30.looking a bit hangdog. A disastrous picture for Ed Miliband. His
:07:31. > :07:36.strength is authenticity, sincerity and cleverness. And he blows all of
:07:37. > :07:41.that. He was the one who took on Murdoch, very bravely and
:07:42. > :07:45.dangerously, and one, really. Now there he is supporting Murdoch's
:07:46. > :07:49.son. It's a big mistake, not just in Liverpool, where obviously they are
:07:50. > :07:55.particularly incensed. And then he apologises. Sort of apologises and
:07:56. > :08:01.understands why Liverpool feels upset. But it is a fundamental error
:08:02. > :08:04.and I hope he learns from this, that he must absolutely stay true to
:08:05. > :08:11.himself. That's all he's got going for him. Who do we blame? His
:08:12. > :08:20.advisers or himself? In the end, himself. Nobody forced him to do it.
:08:21. > :08:28.On this one, he called it wrong. It's a sign of the rather the bridal
:08:29. > :08:31.state of the Labour Party is that his candidates were vocal in
:08:32. > :08:38.attacking him doing this. It's a sign of how readable Ed Miliband is
:08:39. > :08:44.at Parliamentary level. I don't think you should have apologised.
:08:45. > :08:52.The mistake he made was associating himself with that newspaper. The
:08:53. > :08:58.mistake was the prior three years when he went too far as portraying
:08:59. > :09:00.the Murdoch empire beyond the pale. He made a case against phone hacking
:09:01. > :09:06.and offences in that regard without going as far as he did with the
:09:07. > :09:10.rhetoric. To do that, and then pose with the Sun newspaper, the
:09:11. > :09:16.juxtaposition is what did for him, not the mere fact of posing with it.
:09:17. > :09:17.Maybe he did not know what he was doing because we were told he
:09:18. > :09:21.doesn't read the British newspapers. It was football, and he
:09:22. > :09:28.has posed with the Sun newspaper before. Mr Cameron and Mr Clegg
:09:29. > :09:32.posed as well. But with the Sun newspaper and football, you tread
:09:33. > :09:35.carefully. That was the mistake. You get the impression from the picture
:09:36. > :09:38.that he looks so uncomfortable that you wonder whether there was a full
:09:39. > :09:43.process of consultation that went on within his media operation, within
:09:44. > :09:45.his political operation. Was he fully aware of what would happen
:09:46. > :09:49.question what he looks so incredibly uncomfortable. But at the end of the
:09:50. > :09:55.day, leaders have to take responsibility. It is cultural as
:09:56. > :09:58.well. That picture says, I am down there with the football blokes and
:09:59. > :10:03.you think, you are not. That is not what people will vote for. Be
:10:04. > :10:07.yourself and don't pretend to be something else because it never
:10:08. > :10:12.works. But the polls suggest that the British voters don't yet see Ed
:10:13. > :10:16.Miliband as prime ministerial. The worst thing you can then do is get
:10:17. > :10:20.involved in stunts that are more likely to reinforce that idea than
:10:21. > :10:24.counter it. There was a precedent for it in the last parliament which
:10:25. > :10:30.was Gordon Brown's attempts to feign a populist touch. He did it by
:10:31. > :10:37.telling the contents of his iPod. The Arctic monkeys. It always jarred
:10:38. > :10:40.because he was trying too hard. Not uniquely guilty of, Ed Miliband, all
:10:41. > :10:45.the other leaders have done it. At the moment he more vulnerable. Yes,
:10:46. > :10:50.and he is less popular than his party. Labour has quite a popular
:10:51. > :10:54.brand, in a resilient way, in a way they don't with the Tories, yet
:10:55. > :10:59.their leader is a personal problem. The pressure is on him to do stunts
:11:00. > :11:04.like this. Will there be a shadow cabinet reshuffle? Yes, we have to
:11:05. > :11:06.get the cabinet reshuffle out of the way first, and that might come next
:11:07. > :11:10.week, maybe by the time of the summer recess, but the first thing
:11:11. > :11:16.that the prime Minister do is work out who is the UK candidate for the
:11:17. > :11:20.European Commissioner. Is it not the case probably that Ed Balls is
:11:21. > :11:25.becoming semi-detached from the Ed Miliband project? I don't think
:11:26. > :11:29.entirely. Nothing gets agreed without both of the end are green.
:11:30. > :11:34.Ed Balls is controversial. He has great pluses and minuses and is a
:11:35. > :11:38.big figure. Labour doesn't have that many big figures. It's quite hard to
:11:39. > :11:41.think who would be a heavy hitter as a possible Chancellor. He is a
:11:42. > :11:49.convincing chancellor to the future, Love him. He has the heft -- love
:11:50. > :11:53.him or hate him. Any possibility Ed Balls could be moved as shadow
:11:54. > :11:56.chancellor? The timing is convenient because the Scottish referendum ends
:11:57. > :12:01.in the autumn and Alistair Darling becomes a free man, win or lose. I
:12:02. > :12:03.don't think Ed Balls will be removed because moving him would be an
:12:04. > :12:06.admission that everything the Labour Party said about the economy to the
:12:07. > :12:10.preceding four years has been a mistake. And you can't do that nine
:12:11. > :12:15.months before a general election. You invite ridicule. But relations
:12:16. > :12:19.between Ed Miliband and Ed Balls are not great at the moment. The Ed
:12:20. > :12:22.Miliband team are very, very suspicious of this new love in
:12:23. > :12:28.between Ed Balls and Peter Mandelson. Mandelson likes to say
:12:29. > :12:31.that he spotted the Ed Balls talents in the original place and appointed
:12:32. > :12:36.him to the Gordon Brown team after the disaster of 1992. But things
:12:37. > :12:42.obviously went awry, and now Ed Balls and Peter Mandelson Avenue
:12:43. > :12:47.Rappaport, and that is with enormous suspicion -- they have a new
:12:48. > :12:50.Rappaport. With good reason because it's about policy. It's about the
:12:51. > :12:55.attitude towards business. Should they be out there saying they will
:12:56. > :13:00.get the tax dodgers, Starbucks, Vodafone, are we going to take on
:13:01. > :13:03.business in a big way? In a way that Ed Miliband has quite bravely said.
:13:04. > :13:08.On the other hand, Ed Balls and Peter Mandelson are saying, hang on,
:13:09. > :13:09.we only won in 1997 by being business friendly. Sorry to rush
:13:10. > :13:11.you. We are running out of time. The Daily Politics will be back
:13:12. > :13:16.every day this week at midday, and I'll be back here next Sunday
:13:17. > :13:19.when I'll be joined by the shadow work and pensions
:13:20. > :13:21.secretary Rachel Reeves.Remember if it's Sunday,
:13:22. > :13:52.it's the Sunday Politics. Magnificent. The power base
:13:53. > :13:59.of medieval England.