16/02/2014

:00:38. > :00:43.Good morning, folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. It would be

:00:44. > :00:46.extremely difficult, if not impossible, for an independent

:00:47. > :00:50.Scotland to join the European Union, so says the President of the

:00:51. > :00:55.European Commission, Jose Manuel Barroso, in a significant

:00:56. > :00:59.development in the independence debate. It's our top story. He has

:01:00. > :01:08.the power to bring travel chaos to the nation's capital. Bob Crow

:01:09. > :01:09.joined us for the Sunday interview. Another by-election

:01:10. > :01:17.Here, the education minister says no Another by-election and

:01:18. > :01:21.Here, the education minister says no school will lose money under his

:01:22. > :01:22.funding plans based on free school meals.

:01:23. > :01:41.With me, the best and brightest political panel in the business. The

:01:42. > :01:46.twits will be as incessant and probably as welcome as the recent

:01:47. > :01:47.rain. A significant new development in the debate over Scottish

:01:48. > :01:53.independence this morning, the President of the European

:01:54. > :01:57.Commission, President Jose Manuel Barroso, has confirmed what the

:01:58. > :01:59.Nationalists have long denied, that an independent Scotland would have

:02:00. > :02:03.to reply to join the European Union as a new member, that it would

:02:04. > :02:08.require the agreement of all 28 member states and that would be, in

:02:09. > :02:12.his words, extremely difficult, if not impossible. In case there is a

:02:13. > :02:16.new country, a new state coming out of a current member state, it will

:02:17. > :02:22.have to apply and, this is very important, the application to the

:02:23. > :02:30.union would have to be approved by all of the other member states.

:02:31. > :02:34.Countries like Spain, with the secessionist issues they have? I

:02:35. > :02:36.don't want to interfere in your democratic discussion here, but of

:02:37. > :02:42.course, it will be extremely difficult to get the approval of all

:02:43. > :02:45.of the other member states, to have a new member coming in from one

:02:46. > :02:53.member state. We have seen that that Spain has been opposing even the

:02:54. > :02:58.recognition, for instance, so it is a similar state. It is a new

:02:59. > :03:03.country. I believe it is great to be externally difficult, if not

:03:04. > :03:07.impossible. Well, he says he doesn't want to interfere, but he has just

:03:08. > :03:12.dropped a medium-sized explosive into the debate on Scottish

:03:13. > :03:16.independence? A huge story. Alex Salmond must be wondering what is

:03:17. > :03:19.going to go wrong next. His pitch to the Scottish people is based on two

:03:20. > :03:22.things, the currency union with England and the rest of the United

:03:23. > :03:30.Kingdom, which was blown apart last week, and this morning, his claims

:03:31. > :03:44.that Scotland would automatically get into the European Union has been

:03:45. > :03:48.dynamited. He's not only saying that they would have to apply, it is also

:03:49. > :03:54.saying it might be impossible to get the agreement of all 28 members to

:03:55. > :03:58.allow Scotland in. That's even more significant than the application?

:03:59. > :04:04.The reference to Spain is interesting, we talk about Catalan

:04:05. > :04:09.independence, an economic and active area that Spain does not want to be

:04:10. > :04:12.independent. About five other countries are blocking Kosovo's

:04:13. > :04:15.accession to the EU. There is no reason they would want to encourage

:04:16. > :04:21.the secessionist in their country by letting Scotland do the same. If

:04:22. > :04:24.Scotland does have to apply, and it does get in, it solves the currency

:04:25. > :04:31.problem because all new members have to accept the Euro? At the moment,

:04:32. > :04:35.the SNP are rejecting that quite strongly. What an interesting

:04:36. > :04:42.intervention today. However, I know that those arguing that Scotland

:04:43. > :04:48.should stay in the union are worried that the polls are tightening. A lot

:04:49. > :04:53.of these interventions, parents care arguments, they don't look like they

:04:54. > :04:58.are convincing the Scottish people. We haven't had any polls yet? We

:04:59. > :05:01.haven't, but we have since the currency debate was reignited in the

:05:02. > :05:06.last few weeks and it shows the polls tightening slightly. I think

:05:07. > :05:09.Alistair Darling's campaign would prefer to be much further ahead at

:05:10. > :05:14.the stage. They are worried that these technical commandments are not

:05:15. > :05:16.having much sway. Are the polls tightening slightly? They could be

:05:17. > :05:24.within the statistical margin for error. They are, but not much. Alex

:05:25. > :05:28.Salmond's main page is one of reassurance. He wants to say you can

:05:29. > :05:30.vote for independence, a pound in the pocket will be the same as

:05:31. > :05:37.before and you will still be a member of the European Union. In the

:05:38. > :05:43.last three or four matter days, both of those claims have been blown

:05:44. > :05:47.apart. Angus MacNeil has already told BBC Radio 5 Live that the

:05:48. > :05:50.remarks are nonsense and he is playing more politics. We hope to

:05:51. > :05:56.speak to the SNP's finance minister, John Swinney, a little bit later in

:05:57. > :05:59.the programme. It is not just the constant rain that London commuters

:06:00. > :06:03.have had to deal with. There was also a strike on the tube that

:06:04. > :06:07.disrupted the travel of millions. A second stoppage was on the cards,

:06:08. > :06:10.but it was called off at the last minute.

:06:11. > :06:15.The leader of the biggest underground workers union, the RMT,

:06:16. > :06:20.is Bob Crow, who has led his members into 24 strikes on the tube since

:06:21. > :06:23.2005, as well as disputes on the national rail network. Under his

:06:24. > :06:29.leadership, the union's membership has grown from 57,000 in 2002 to

:06:30. > :06:31.more than 80,000, at a time when union membership overall has been

:06:32. > :06:36.shrinking. The current dispute has seen Bob Crow squaring up to Boris

:06:37. > :06:40.Johnson over the mayor's plans to close tube station ticket offices.

:06:41. > :06:45.The 48-hour stoppage at the beginning of this month is estimated

:06:46. > :06:50.to have cost the London economy ?100 million. The two sides have agreed a

:06:51. > :06:54.truce, for now, but Mr Crow has threatened further action if the

:06:55. > :06:56.mayor imposes his changes. Bob Crow joins me now for the Sunday

:06:57. > :07:07.interview. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. You

:07:08. > :07:15.have suspended the strike for the moment. What will it take to call it

:07:16. > :07:18.off entirely? Want to know first of all wider booking office has to

:07:19. > :07:21.close. The Mayor of London made it quite clear in his election

:07:22. > :07:25.programme that the booking offices would remain open. It was strange,

:07:26. > :07:28.really, because Ken Livingstone wanted to close them down and the

:07:29. > :07:31.mayor thought it was popular to keep them open and put in his campaign to

:07:32. > :07:38.keep them open. However, we have not the news figures. We are being told

:07:39. > :07:41.only 3% of people use the booking offices. That's not true. In

:07:42. > :07:44.research done, if somebody does to a booking office with somebody sitting

:07:45. > :07:49.there and asks for a ticket of less than ?5, they are not allowed to

:07:50. > :07:56.sell them a ticket, it is madness. Do you use the ticket office? When

:07:57. > :08:01.it is open, yes. You said to ITV that he didn't. I don't know what I

:08:02. > :08:04.said to ITV, I don't know what time people use them, sometimes they are

:08:05. > :08:07.open and sometimes they are closed. People make out that these ticket

:08:08. > :08:11.office staff are people that sit behind barriers like a newsagent.

:08:12. > :08:16.I'm not knocking a newsagent, however, these people were the same

:08:17. > :08:24.people treated like Lions when they were helping people named in the

:08:25. > :08:27.terrorist incidents, taking them out of the panels. Suddenly they are

:08:28. > :08:31.lazy people that sit in ticket offices. My understanding is that

:08:32. > :08:34.the people would come from behind and be out and about now. It is the

:08:35. > :08:40.management wants to run the underground without ticket offices,

:08:41. > :08:46.isn't that their prerogative? They are paid to manage, not you, not

:08:47. > :08:49.your members, they are the managers? Managers are there to manage, and we

:08:50. > :08:52.want good managers. But we've got some really bad managers that are

:08:53. > :08:55.not looking at the railway as a whole. This is a successful

:08:56. > :08:59.industry, not an industry in decline, one of the most successful

:09:00. > :09:02.in Britain. It is moving 3.4 million people a day. All of the forecast is

:09:03. > :09:08.or it will move to 3.6 million per day. The mayor wants to run services

:09:09. > :09:11.on a Friday and Saturday night. We are not opposed to that. However, it

:09:12. > :09:16.does not make sense that if more people are going to be using the

:09:17. > :09:19.tube on Friday and Saturday, coming home at two o'clock three o'clock in

:09:20. > :09:26.the morning, a lot of people drinking, a lot of people not

:09:27. > :09:30.dragging, why take 1000 people of the network that come to the aid of

:09:31. > :09:35.people that are looking to people? I want to show you this picture. This

:09:36. > :09:42.is you. Taking a break in Brazil, I think it is. I was trying to copy

:09:43. > :09:46.you. You deserve this break because you have done a fantastic job for

:09:47. > :09:50.your members. Yes, I don't see what that has got to do with it. Let's

:09:51. > :09:54.get every editor of the daily newspapers and see where they go on

:09:55. > :09:59.their holidays, I would like to know. What I choose to do... I'm not

:10:00. > :10:02.attacking you for doing that... You've got a picture up there, I've

:10:03. > :10:07.got to say, why don't they go and follow Boris Johnson when he was

:10:08. > :10:11.away on holiday, when the riots were taking place in London, and he

:10:12. > :10:14.refused to come back? Why don't they go and view the editors of

:10:15. > :10:17.newspapers, where they go on holiday? Why do they look at you

:10:18. > :10:21.when you go on holiday? They sometimes do, actually. The basic

:10:22. > :10:28.pay of a tube driver will soon be ?52,000. Ticket office workers are

:10:29. > :10:32.already earning over ?35,000. Never mind a holiday on Copacabana beach,

:10:33. > :10:36.or membership by your house for what you have done for them? When you

:10:37. > :10:40.look at the papers this morning, I see that Wayne Rooney is going to

:10:41. > :10:44.get a ?70 million deal over the next four deals. I see NHS doctors are

:10:45. > :10:52.getting ?3000 a shift. I see a lot of people that do a lot of people

:10:53. > :10:56.that, in my opinion, don't do anything for society. The top paid

:10:57. > :10:59.people in this country should be doctors and nurses. Unfortunately,

:11:00. > :11:04.we live in a jungle. If you are not strong, the bosses will walk all

:11:05. > :11:06.over you. The reason why we got good terms and conditions is because we

:11:07. > :11:11.fought for them. The reality is, all of these three political parties,

:11:12. > :11:16.liberals, Tories and Labour, they have all put no programme that to

:11:17. > :11:19.defend working people. So we have to do it on our own. And that is why

:11:20. > :11:22.you have done such a great job for your members and why union

:11:23. > :11:25.membership has been rising, people want to be part of a successful

:11:26. > :11:31.operation. But it has come at a cost for less well-paid workers, who

:11:32. > :11:36.travel on the cheap? If everyone believes if London Underground tube

:11:37. > :11:39.workers take a pay freeze they are going to redistribute the money to

:11:40. > :11:44.the rest of the workers that work on the cheap... But the people that

:11:45. > :11:48.travel on the tube, let's look at some of them, they are the ones that

:11:49. > :11:53.suffer from your strike action. The starting salary of a cheap driver

:11:54. > :12:00.now, ?48,000. The starting salary for a nurses only ?26,000, ?22,000

:12:01. > :12:03.for a young policeman, ?27,000 for a teacher starting out. As your

:12:04. > :12:11.members have spread, they have had to live through 24 strikes in 13

:12:12. > :12:19.years to push up your members wages. It's I'm all right Jack? The

:12:20. > :12:23.have put a pay freeze on by conservatives and liberals. The

:12:24. > :12:27.police constables, so have the teachers. We have had the ability to

:12:28. > :12:32.go and fight. The reality is, at the end of the day, as I have said

:12:33. > :12:37.before, no one is going to put up the cause for workers. Not one

:12:38. > :12:41.single party in parliament are fighting the cause for workers. They

:12:42. > :12:45.all support privatisation, they all support keeping the anti-trade union

:12:46. > :12:49.laws, they all support illegal wars around the world. Unless they have a

:12:50. > :12:53.fighting trade union, our members pay would be as low as some others.

:12:54. > :12:57.You said we could not care less if we have 1 million strikes. But these

:12:58. > :13:04.people, the lower paid people who travel on the tube, who need it as

:13:05. > :13:06.an essential service, they care. Of course they care, I've said before

:13:07. > :13:12.that I apologise to the troubling public for the dispute that took

:13:13. > :13:18.place. 24 strikes in 13 years? It two to tango. If the boy never

:13:19. > :13:23.imposed terms and conditions on us against our will... But you've got

:13:24. > :13:29.great terms and conditions! But it's a constant battle, they are trying

:13:30. > :13:33.to change them. Drivers are having their pay going up to ?50,000. You

:13:34. > :13:37.said they are making it worse, it is going up. They are trying to make

:13:38. > :13:42.things worse for workers. You said at the start of the interview that

:13:43. > :13:47.the tube strike cost ?100 million in two days. It means that when members

:13:48. > :13:49.go to work for two days it is worth ?100 million. That demonstrates what

:13:50. > :13:54.they are worth. Only a fighting trade union can defend workers out

:13:55. > :13:59.there. Your members should enjoy what you have got for them, because

:14:00. > :14:02.it's not going to last, is it? Technology will change the whole way

:14:03. > :14:08.your business operates. As Karl Marx says, you said I was a mixture of

:14:09. > :14:13.Karl Marx, Only Fools And Horses and the Sopranos. I thought that was

:14:14. > :14:19.quite funny... The Karl Marx part of it, the only thing that is constant

:14:20. > :14:24.is change. We have been crying out for new technology. But for who? To

:14:25. > :14:28.put people on the dole, so they can't do anything and do anything

:14:29. > :14:33.for society, or technology so everybody benefits, lower fares,

:14:34. > :14:37.better service and better terms and conditions for the workers. But you

:14:38. > :14:41.have made Labour so expensive on the underground that management now has

:14:42. > :14:45.a huge incentive to substitute technology for Labour. And that's

:14:46. > :14:48.what it's going to do, it is closing the ticket offices and very soon,

:14:49. > :14:54.starting in 2016, the driverless trains coming. What I am saying is

:14:55. > :15:05.that your members should enjoy this because it's not going to last.

:15:06. > :15:15.Driverless trains are not coming in, it is not safe. We have them in

:15:16. > :15:19.Nuremberg, Shanghai, Sao Paulo, it is not safe? These are new lines

:15:20. > :15:25.that have been built so that when it breaks down, people can get out of

:15:26. > :15:31.the tunnel. Would you want to be stuck on a summers day on the

:15:32. > :15:36.Northern line? A pregnant woman who cannot get off the train? Absolute

:15:37. > :15:41.panic that takes place, the reality is simple, it is a nonsense. It's

:15:42. > :15:48.not going to happen because it is a Victorian network. On Docklands

:15:49. > :15:56.railway for example it is driverless but when the train breaks down, it

:15:57. > :16:03.is above ground on a very small section. All of these other cities

:16:04. > :16:15.managed to have it. You remind me about Henry Ford in the 1930s when

:16:16. > :16:23.he said, you see that robot over their, he cannot buy a car. All

:16:24. > :16:29.sorts of new jobs are being created all the time in other areas. Come

:16:30. > :16:33.back to the ticket offices, not many people use the ticket offices any

:16:34. > :16:38.more, what is wrong with getting the stuff out of the ticket office on to

:16:39. > :16:42.the concourses, meeting and greeting, helping disabled people

:16:43. > :16:48.and tourists and making it a better service? They can do more on the

:16:49. > :16:54.concourse than they can in the ticket office. Andrew, he took the

:16:55. > :17:02.decision to close down every single ticket office. You cannot compare

:17:03. > :17:07.for example Chesham with the likes of Heathrow. Are you telling me

:17:08. > :17:14.people are going to be on a long transatlantic flight, arrived at

:17:15. > :17:20.Heathrow and cannot get a ticket. The stuff will be redeployed on the

:17:21. > :17:26.concourse. The simple problem is that it is not just about the

:17:27. > :17:31.booking office, it is about people having a visual. If you are

:17:32. > :17:37.partially sighted, you cannot use the machines. If British is not your

:17:38. > :17:44.first language, you cannot use the offices. How many languages do your

:17:45. > :17:54.members speak? I don't know, I struggle with English. The machines

:17:55. > :18:00.can speak many different languages. They are dehumanising things. You

:18:01. > :18:06.phone the bank, all you hear is, press one for this, two for that.

:18:07. > :18:08.People want to hear it human being and what makes the London

:18:09. > :18:15.Underground so precious is that people want to see people. Having

:18:16. > :18:21.well-dressed, motivated people out on the concourse, what part of that

:18:22. > :18:25.don't you like? They will be on the concourse and they will have

:18:26. > :18:29.machines. The fact is that London Underground did a risk assessment of

:18:30. > :18:34.closing down their booking offices and it is clear that if you are

:18:35. > :18:41.disabled, if you are partially sighted, London Underground becomes

:18:42. > :18:48.more dangerous. You are posing the closing of ticket offices, opposing

:18:49. > :19:00.driverless trains, when you opposed to the Oyster card when it came in?

:19:01. > :19:07.No, Oyster cards, it is how you deal with it. It is not the only way.

:19:08. > :19:12.They should supplement the staff and the job. If more people used the

:19:13. > :19:18.London Underground system, you want more staff to deal with them. Let's

:19:19. > :19:30.look at your mandate to strike. Of your members who work on the Tube,

:19:31. > :19:36.only 40% bothered to vote. Only 30% voted for the strike, so 70%

:19:37. > :19:41.actually didn't vote to strike of your members, but the strike went

:19:42. > :19:46.ahead. Isn't it right to have a higher threshold before you can

:19:47. > :19:50.cause this disruption? It would be lovely if everyone voted but the

:19:51. > :19:56.Tories took that away. We used to have ballots at the workplace. What

:19:57. > :20:05.I'm trying to say to you is that we used to have a ballot box at the

:20:06. > :20:09.workplace and the turnouts were higher. The Tories believe that if

:20:10. > :20:15.they can have a secret ballot where ballot papers went to people's home

:20:16. > :20:19.addresses, where they could be persuaded by the bosses, votes would

:20:20. > :20:27.be different. Let's go back to the workplace ballot because you get a

:20:28. > :20:31.bigger turnout. Will the RMT re-affiliate to the Labour Party? I

:20:32. > :20:40.have no intention to. We got expelled from the Labour Party. But

:20:41. > :20:48.you will give some money to the Labour councils? Those that support

:20:49. > :20:55.our basic policies get money, we don't give money directly to MPs, we

:20:56. > :21:04.give it to constituencies. Are you going to stand for re-election in

:21:05. > :21:09.2016? I might do, I might not. You haven't decided yet? No, but more

:21:10. > :21:17.than likely I will do. And will you stand again as an anti-EU candidate?

:21:18. > :21:24.Yes, I am standing in London, and right across, completely different

:21:25. > :21:28.to UKIP's policies. They are anti-European, they believe all of

:21:29. > :21:35.the faults of Europe are down to the immigrants. We are anti-European

:21:36. > :21:41.Union. If London Underground is as badly run as you think, why don't

:21:42. > :21:47.you run for mayor? That is down the road, it has not come up yet. I'm

:21:48. > :21:54.not ruling anything out. I'm not ruling out getting your job on the

:21:55. > :22:00.Sunday Politics. You have got to retire as well, you have got to put

:22:01. > :22:05.your feet up. I will get you to renegotiate my package. Shall we go

:22:06. > :22:18.on strike first? If I could have your wages, I would have two trips

:22:19. > :22:22.to Rio every year. Good luck. And if you're in the London region they'll

:22:23. > :22:28.have more on the Tube strike later in the programme. Let's get back to

:22:29. > :22:37.those comments from Jose Manuel Barroso, and reaction to these

:22:38. > :22:43.comments from John Swinney. Scottish Nationalists denied all along you

:22:44. > :22:49.would have to reapply, we have now heard it without any caveats, you

:22:50. > :22:56.will and you might not get in. I think Jose Manuel Barroso's comments

:22:57. > :23:02.were preposterous this morning. He compared the situation to the one in

:23:03. > :23:07.Kosovo. Britain is the member, Scotland is not the member. If you

:23:08. > :23:13.go independent, you will have to reapply, he says. All of the

:23:14. > :23:16.arrangements we have in place are compatible with the workings of the

:23:17. > :23:20.European Union because we have been part of it for 40 years. The

:23:21. > :23:27.propositions we put forward work about essentially negotiating the

:23:28. > :23:33.continuity of Scotland's membership of the European Union and that

:23:34. > :23:46.position has now been explained and debated and discussed and reinforced

:23:47. > :23:49.by comments made by experts. We are talking about the president of the

:23:50. > :23:54.European commission and we have spoken to him since he gave that

:23:55. > :23:58.interview on the BBC this morning, it was an intervention that he made

:23:59. > :24:06.that he wanted to lay out that Scotland should be in no doubt that

:24:07. > :24:14.if they vote for independence they will have to apply for European

:24:15. > :24:20.membership and they may not get it if it is vetoed by other members.

:24:21. > :24:25.What he didn't say is that no state of the European Union have indicated

:24:26. > :24:31.they would veto Scottish membership. The Spanish foreign

:24:32. > :24:36.minister has. They have said that if there is an agreed process within

:24:37. > :24:39.the UK that Scotland becomes an independent country, then Spain has

:24:40. > :24:43.got nothing to say about the issue. That indicates to me clearly that

:24:44. > :24:49.the Spanish government will have no stance to take on the Scottish

:24:50. > :24:52.membership of the European Union because it is important that

:24:53. > :24:57.Scotland is already part of the European Union, our laws are

:24:58. > :25:01.compatible with the European Union and we play our part. The only

:25:02. > :25:10.threat to Scotland's participation in the European Union is the

:25:11. > :25:18.potential in/out referendum that David Cameron wants to have in 2017.

:25:19. > :25:23.It has not been a great week for you, has it? Everything you seem to

:25:24. > :25:29.want, the monetary union, that has been blown out of the water by the

:25:30. > :25:35.Westminster parties, now Jose Manuel Barroso has said you will have to

:25:36. > :25:40.reapply to the European Union, it has not been a good week. You will

:25:41. > :25:45.follow the debate closely, and the Sunday newspapers are full about the

:25:46. > :25:53.backlash taking place within Scotland at the bullying remarks of

:25:54. > :25:59.the Chancellor and his cohorts. Is Jose Manuel Barroso a bully is well

:26:00. > :26:05.now? He is making an indirect comparison between Scotland and

:26:06. > :26:11.Kosovo. If you vote for independence and you do have two apply again to

:26:12. > :26:17.join, if you do get in it solves your currency problem because you

:26:18. > :26:20.will have to accept the euro. We have set out an option on the

:26:21. > :26:30.currency arrangements which would be to establish the currency union. You

:26:31. > :26:36.would have to adopt the euro. That's not rate because you have to be part

:26:37. > :26:40.of the exchange-rate mechanism for two years before you can apply for

:26:41. > :26:45.membership and an independent Scotland has no intention of signing

:26:46. > :26:50.up to the exchange rate mechanism or the single currency. We are

:26:51. > :26:54.concentrating on setting out our arguments for maintaining the pound

:26:55. > :27:02.sterling, which is in the interests of Scotland and the UK. Thank you

:27:03. > :27:06.for joining us this morning. This week's least surprising news

:27:07. > :27:08.was that Labour won the safe seat of Wythenshawe and Sale East in a

:27:09. > :27:12.by-election, following the death of the MP Paul Goggins. With the result

:27:13. > :27:15.so predictable, all eyes were on whether this would be the sixth time

:27:16. > :27:18.this parliament that UKIP would come second. And whether they'd chip away

:27:19. > :27:22.at Labour's vote, not just the Tories and the Lib Dems. Adam stayed

:27:23. > :27:32.up all night to find out what it all meant. Forget the hype. Forget the

:27:33. > :27:44.theorising. And yes - everyone has a theory. UKIP are learning from us.

:27:45. > :27:49.What have they picked up from you? To be silly. Thanks to this week's

:27:50. > :27:52.by-election we've got some hard evidence in paper form that helps

:27:53. > :27:59.answer the question: How are UKIP doing? Turns out the answer is well,

:28:00. > :28:09.but not well enough to beat Labour. I'm therefore claim -- declare that

:28:10. > :28:11.Mike Cane is elected. So UKIP have come second and increased their

:28:12. > :28:14.share of the vote quite significantly. But their performance

:28:15. > :28:17.isn't as good as their performances in some of the other by-elections

:28:18. > :28:25.this parliament. Just don't suggest to them that their bandwagon has

:28:26. > :28:33.ground to a halt. A week ago you'd told me you were going to win, what

:28:34. > :28:41.happened? No, I didn't, I said I wanted to win. My mistake. How are

:28:42. > :28:46.you feeling? It is a Labour stronghold, we always knew it was

:28:47. > :28:51.going to be a fight. Labour were running scared of letting us present

:28:52. > :28:54.our arguments. UKIP's campaign in Wythenshawe didn't point to the

:28:55. > :28:57.right but to the left, with leaflets that branded Labour as a party of

:28:58. > :29:01.millionaires who didn't care about the working class. It wasn't a

:29:02. > :29:07.winning strategy but it did help them beat the Tories who focused on

:29:08. > :29:09.dog mess and potholes instead. Professional UKIP-watcher Rob Ford

:29:10. > :29:15.from Manchester Uni thinks they could be on the right track. He's

:29:16. > :29:18.analysed the views of 5,000 UKIP voters for a new book, which could

:29:19. > :29:30.confound the received wisdom about the party. The common media image of

:29:31. > :29:39.the typical UKIP voter is a ruddy faced golf club and -- member from

:29:40. > :29:43.the south-east of the UK and many UKIP activists do resemble that

:29:44. > :29:48.stereotype to some extent, they do pick up a lot of activists from the

:29:49. > :29:53.Conservative party, but UKIP voters are older, more working class, more

:29:54. > :29:58.likely to live in Northern, urban areas, and they are much more

:29:59. > :30:01.anti-system than anti-EU. And they're precisely the voters that

:30:02. > :30:04.the Tory MP David Mowat needs if he's to hold on to his narrow

:30:05. > :30:18.majority in the constituency just down the road. Do you have a UKIP

:30:19. > :30:21.strategy in your seat? Our UKIP strategy is to point out that if

:30:22. > :30:25.they want a referendum on if they want to be in the EU or not, there

:30:26. > :30:28.is one way to get it, for the Conservatives to form their next

:30:29. > :30:34.government and for me to be their MP. UKIP could accidentally destroy

:30:35. > :30:40.what they want? I'm not sure it will be accidental. People need to

:30:41. > :30:45.realise that if Ed Miliband is the Prime Minister, there will be no

:30:46. > :30:51.referendum on the EU and UKIP may have made their point but they would

:30:52. > :31:00.not have got their referendum. Over at UKIP local HQ, it is tidying up

:31:01. > :31:04.time. Not helping, Nigel? I had major surgery on the 19th of

:31:05. > :31:08.November and I am still weak as a kitten. I can barely lift a pint

:31:09. > :31:12.with my right hand, it is as serious as that. The answer is, Carreon,

:31:13. > :31:16.chaps, you're all doing a very good job. There will be carrying on to

:31:17. > :31:21.the European elections in May, which will provide more evidence of if the

:31:22. > :31:27.UKIP and wagon is powering on or if it is just parked. -- bandwagon.

:31:28. > :31:31.With me now is the Conservative MEP Vicky fraud and UKIP director of

:31:32. > :31:35.medication is Patrick O'Flynn. He will also be a candidate in the

:31:36. > :31:38.upcoming European elections. You came second in Manchester, but it

:31:39. > :31:46.was not a close second. -- Vicky Ford. There is nothing that is a

:31:47. > :31:51.game changer? I think it is very unusual for any insurgent party,

:31:52. > :31:57.like the liberals used to be, to actually win a safe seat of the

:31:58. > :32:04.opposition. Those shocks, going back to Walkington etc, it tended to be

:32:05. > :32:10.winning seats against an unpopular government. We did extraordinarily

:32:11. > :32:13.well in Wythenshawe. Labour compressed the campaign down to the

:32:14. > :32:16.shortest possible time and maxed out the postal vote. Whatever we think

:32:17. > :32:20.about Labour, they do have an efficient machine, lots of union

:32:21. > :32:27.activists signed a lot of people with a lot of know-how. It pushed

:32:28. > :32:32.you into third place and showed the increasing irrelevance of the Tories

:32:33. > :32:37.in the North? Tory minded voters in the North Sea more inclined to vote

:32:38. > :32:41.for UKIP than you? I think by-elections are by-elections. The

:32:42. > :32:46.same day, we took a seat from Labour in Birmingham. Well, that was a

:32:47. > :32:49.by-election as well, so we should discount that as well. You should

:32:50. > :32:54.learn from them, and we need to look forward to the elections in 2014.

:32:55. > :33:01.That is in May this year, when we have a chance to really grab this

:33:02. > :33:06.change in Europe, grab this change that we were talking about just now.

:33:07. > :33:08.You don't worry, particularly in the north, if people want to vote

:33:09. > :33:14.against Labour your supporters are drifting to UKIP? I think people

:33:15. > :33:17.vote UKIP in a European election and they have done that for many years.

:33:18. > :33:22.They vote that because they want change. The problem is, Patrick's

:33:23. > :33:27.party have had MEPs since 1999 and they cannot deliver that change.

:33:28. > :33:33.They can't because they don't have seats in Westminster. It was on that

:33:34. > :33:37.video, the only way we are going to get the change we want in Europe is

:33:38. > :33:44.to have that referendum and have the renegotiation, and that means vote

:33:45. > :33:49.Tory. What do you say to that? Let's get real, the Conservative Party has

:33:50. > :33:54.not won a Parliamentary majority in 22 years. But the only way you will

:33:55. > :33:58.get a referendum, if that is what motivates you, and with UKIP it is,

:33:59. > :34:02.the only way it will be a referendum on Europe in this country as if

:34:03. > :34:05.there is a majority Conservative government at the next election. And

:34:06. > :34:11.you could well stop that from happening? I don't accept that. I

:34:12. > :34:14.believe, just as we forced David Cameron and into a referendum pledge

:34:15. > :34:18.he explicitly ruled out making before through our success, and I

:34:19. > :34:21.was there in PMQs, when his MPs asked him and he said it would not

:34:22. > :34:24.be in the national interest because he didn't want to leave, our

:34:25. > :34:29.electoral success forced that pledge. I believe by winning the

:34:30. > :34:33.European action this May we can force Ed Miliband, again, against

:34:34. > :34:36.his will, to match that pledge. Then, whatever formulation varies in

:34:37. > :34:42.the next Parliament, we will get a referendum. Labour MPs have just had

:34:43. > :34:48.the chance to say we want a referendum. They refused to do it.

:34:49. > :34:52.The only way you are going to get a renegotiation, a change in our

:34:53. > :34:55.relationship with Europe and an in or out referendum is to have a

:34:56. > :34:58.Conservative Government. Please, UKIP, stop pretending that you can

:34:59. > :35:05.deliver, because you don't deliver and you don't... We have delivered,

:35:06. > :35:11.we forced David Cameron to give a pledge for a referendum he didn't

:35:12. > :35:14.want to make. We will know if you are right about Ed Miliband or not,

:35:15. > :35:20.you will have to tell us going into the campaign. If you are wrong, what

:35:21. > :35:24.do you do then? There are still loads of reasons for people to vote

:35:25. > :35:30.UKIP. A referendum is one thing. David Cameron, and I asked him

:35:31. > :35:36.directly, thermally wants to stay in. He wants to be the Edward Heath

:35:37. > :35:40.of the 21st century. The Tories are going to say, vote UKIP, get Ed

:35:41. > :35:44.Miliband. What would you say to that? I would say we have probably

:35:45. > :35:49.maxed out the Tory vote we are going to get because David Cameron has

:35:50. > :35:53.been incredibly helpful in sending them in our direction. Our potential

:35:54. > :35:58.for growth now, would we are concentrating on, his those

:35:59. > :36:02.disenchanted former Labour voters and more and more of them are coming

:36:03. > :36:07.towards us on things like immigration and law and order. We

:36:08. > :36:11.want to renegotiate our relationship with Europe. We need to have people

:36:12. > :36:14.who are going to turn up to negotiate with people like Barroso.

:36:15. > :36:23.That meant a Prime Minister that is not Ed Miliband but David Cameron.

:36:24. > :36:30.UKIP MEPs do not turn up to defenders. If President Hollande is

:36:31. > :36:32.as good as his word and says there will be no substantial

:36:33. > :36:37.renegotiation, certainly no treaty change this side of 2017 when he is

:36:38. > :36:43.up for the election, what do you do then? He is a French Socialist Prime

:36:44. > :36:48.Minister, I don't expect him to agree. But you can't bring anything

:36:49. > :36:56.of substance back with these negotiations. Then people will vote

:36:57. > :37:02.to leave. The Prime Minister has been very clear that British public

:37:03. > :37:06.opinion is on a knife edge and unless we get what we want from a

:37:07. > :37:11.renegotiation, we will leave. You would vote to leave? Let's see what

:37:12. > :37:15.we get with the deal on the table in 2017. If the status quo was what we

:37:16. > :37:23.have today, I would vote to leave. But I want to renegotiate. We will

:37:24. > :37:26.have to move on. For those viewers lucky enough to live in the East of

:37:27. > :37:30.England, they will be seeing more of Patrick in a moment. You are

:37:31. > :37:34.watching Sunday Politics. Coming up in just over 20 minutes, I will be

:37:35. > :37:35.talking about, what else, the weather,

:37:36. > :37:50.Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics. The Education Minister has

:37:51. > :37:54.moved to calm nerves over the Common Funding Formula - no school will

:37:55. > :37:58.lose money says John O'Dowd. So what exactly are his plans? Plus, a war

:37:59. > :38:06.of words over a proposed re-organisation to the Irish

:38:07. > :38:09.language sector here. This is about demoting the language and providing

:38:10. > :38:14.better services in a more efficient way to the Irish language community.

:38:15. > :38:19.-- promoting the language. And with their thoughts, PR consultant Sheila

:38:20. > :38:22.Davidson and commentator Orna Young. But first, the health of our

:38:23. > :38:25.emergency departments has dominated the news all week - much of the

:38:26. > :38:31.focus on Belfast's Royal Victoria Hospital. A BBC Spotlight programme

:38:32. > :38:36.revealed a number of deaths had been partly due to delays there. Here's

:38:37. > :38:42.what a former doctor at the Royal's emergency department told me on

:38:43. > :38:45.Thursday night's The View. Did you feel that the concerns that you and

:38:46. > :38:52.others raised were taken as seriously as they should have? No,

:38:53. > :39:01.and I think that is evidenced by the fact that those concerns had to be

:39:02. > :39:06.used on repeated occasions. I don't think they ever were adequately

:39:07. > :39:09.addressed. What the public see in all of this are dramatic headlines,

:39:10. > :39:14.and they hear from and see overworked medical staff working for

:39:15. > :39:20.well-paid managers who look as if they are asleep at the wheel. I

:39:21. > :39:23.understand that and understand how that conclusion can be drawn, but I

:39:24. > :39:27.would say to you that everybody who works in health and social care

:39:28. > :39:31.gives of their best to deliver the best health and social care. Let's

:39:32. > :39:38.hear from my guests Sheila Davidson and Orna Young. Sheila, I assume

:39:39. > :39:44.that you followed the story closely last week. What did you make of the

:39:45. > :39:48.revelations and the way in which the Minister has tried to deal with this

:39:49. > :39:53.situation? I think we all understand that the NHS is a monolith that is

:39:54. > :40:00.very difficult to manage and fund and to get the best out of. That

:40:01. > :40:04.said, what is happening in A seems to be the thin end of the wedge. We

:40:05. > :40:12.have been biggest drug sector and event of the NHS and GPs, they have

:40:13. > :40:16.varying degrees of remiss is that they work at, and there is an asset

:40:17. > :40:21.of the NHS sitting out there, that people cannot access. Where are the

:40:22. > :40:26.evening surgeries, the night time GPs that are dealing with people

:40:27. > :40:32.when you are getting locums coming out? All of us have stories, and I

:40:33. > :40:38.do, of people who are experiencing an NHS that is less than we would

:40:39. > :40:46.expect. So GB contracts need to be looked at again? -- GP contract is?

:40:47. > :40:52.Absolutely. I think what we are looking at with the A problem is

:40:53. > :40:54.the thin end of the wedge, where the anything and everything approach,

:40:55. > :40:58.send everybody into the hospitals, is creating an overload that gets us

:40:59. > :41:05.to question things like the management. There were lots of

:41:06. > :41:11.issues revealed in that programme and subsequent programmes during the

:41:12. > :41:18.week. Jonathan Miller says the difficulties at the the Royal were

:41:19. > :41:25.the tip of the ice -- iceberg. If we think about it as issues of GPs,

:41:26. > :41:29.wide access to waiting lists, things like that, it has become very

:41:30. > :41:33.alarming in oration to the system as a whole. There needs to be a step

:41:34. > :41:44.taken back by all involved, particularly in oration to those who

:41:45. > :41:49.have been involved -- in relation. The health portfolio remained a bit

:41:50. > :41:53.of a poisoned chalice. It is, but we shouldn't look at it that way,

:41:54. > :41:57.because no matter what politician takes it up, they have a challenge.

:41:58. > :42:04.And we as a public need to understand that is not an easy thing

:42:05. > :42:09.to do. I think it is easy to blame the Minister for something that is

:42:10. > :42:14.really quite extensive. We are paying people in the health service

:42:15. > :42:20.management more than even ministers. So the responsibility needs to be

:42:21. > :42:24.further down the line. The other issue is that people 's expectations

:42:25. > :42:30.need to be more realistic as well as to what they can expect from the

:42:31. > :42:33.health service. Absolutely. If we look at this period of austerities,

:42:34. > :42:38.it's problematic in terms of where the money is going, the challenges

:42:39. > :42:44.are channelling that in a more effective way. We will hear from you

:42:45. > :42:47.both throughout the programme. Well, money's too tight to mention in most

:42:48. > :42:50.government departments - but maybe not in the Department for Education?

:42:51. > :42:54.The Minister told MLAs that schools will not now face cuts in their

:42:55. > :43:02.budgets next year and some schools will still get an increase. Last

:43:03. > :43:04.year principals hit out at the proposed changes to the Common

:43:05. > :43:08.Funding Formula, saying some could see their budgets cut by up to

:43:09. > :43:12.?40,000 next year. So how has the Minister managed to come up with a

:43:13. > :43:19.solution that pleases everone? John O'Dowd is with me. A bit of a magic

:43:20. > :43:22.trick, some people would say. First of all you've had to concede that

:43:23. > :43:26.your original plans for the Common Funding Formula were unworkable. I

:43:27. > :43:32.haven't conceded that. I still believe the principle of tax doing

:43:33. > :43:37.educational underachievement through social deprivation remains. I was

:43:38. > :43:42.clear that the figures given to schools were indicative and include

:43:43. > :43:47.the ?15.8 million that is to be added to school budgets. There are

:43:48. > :43:50.several ways you can add that. This year we had 3000 more children in

:43:51. > :43:57.primary schools on the previous year, 1700 less in other schools,

:43:58. > :44:02.I'm proposing we have a split pot, one for primary and nursery

:44:03. > :44:06.schools. How we divide at ?15.8 million is key as to how we move

:44:07. > :44:13.forward. The target of tackling it remains. But that is not the

:44:14. > :44:17.contingency fund you are using for this. That is a separate amount of

:44:18. > :44:24.money. No, we shouldn't confuse the two. Where did the money from the

:44:25. > :44:28.contingency come from? I heard it was to bail you out in the mail you

:44:29. > :44:35.got into over the Common Funding Formula. I knew all along I had the

:44:36. > :44:40.?15.8 million, that would be added to the pot. When we do that, I have

:44:41. > :44:45.yet to make my mind which final formula we will end up with, we have

:44:46. > :44:51.a minus around ?300,000. The universal budget I have of 2

:44:52. > :44:57.million, if I can't find that, shouldn't be in the post. But it is

:44:58. > :45:05.a temporary stay of execution for these schools. What happens next

:45:06. > :45:12.year? We're into a new budget year next year, I will be going and

:45:13. > :45:15.negotiating with my executive colleagues strongly for an enhanced

:45:16. > :45:23.education budget, and during this budgetary period we did secure ?130

:45:24. > :45:28.extra from the executive. But the Department of extra still has

:45:29. > :45:35.millions from where we were three or four years ago. Education is

:45:36. > :45:38.important, when it comes to negotiations around the budget...

:45:39. > :45:45.You asked for feedback from the proposals. 77% of respondents

:45:46. > :45:49.opposed the use of free school meals to determine which schools get more

:45:50. > :45:52.money. 600 schools believed they would face budget cuts of up to

:45:53. > :45:57.?33,000! People told you it was a problem and you have had to change

:45:58. > :46:03.tack. That is what consultations are about. So you have taken it on

:46:04. > :46:10.board. You also have to accept, you didn't get it right first time

:46:11. > :46:17.round. I welcome the fact that 15,000 people responded to this

:46:18. > :46:21.consultation. This has been an open, democratic base we have been

:46:22. > :46:26.involved in. But in terms of the consultation response, one school

:46:27. > :46:32.issued 2000 responses, entitled to do so but it has to be put in that

:46:33. > :46:38.context. Around 4000 of them are lobby letters, you have to put them

:46:39. > :46:42.in that context. I can go through the competition responses on the

:46:43. > :46:47.basis, is there an alternative proposed? Man has been proposed. The

:46:48. > :46:52.Public Accounts Committee of the SMB tells me free school meals is a

:46:53. > :47:01.robust measure. And the OECD tells me it is a robust measure of social

:47:02. > :47:04.deprivation. Is this a stay of execution for these schools for a 12

:47:05. > :47:10.month period, and can they expect cuts to their budget the following

:47:11. > :47:13.year, or are you saying you will also be able to find the excess

:47:14. > :47:22.money necessary to make sure schools don't face real cuts? Schools

:47:23. > :47:26.budgets depend on a number of factors, the number of pupils they

:47:27. > :47:31.take in, if a school loses pupils, there is nothing I can do about

:47:32. > :47:34.that. But I'm committed this financial year to support schools

:47:35. > :47:37.who may be losing money as a result of the changes I am making. I'm

:47:38. > :47:44.committed to those schools that I will go into negotiations with my

:47:45. > :47:48.colleagues and fight very hard to improve and increase the education

:47:49. > :47:54.budget, I want to see all schools budgets increased in the future. Of

:47:55. > :47:57.course you would, a lot of people will say it is laudable that the

:47:58. > :48:01.minister wants to target schools with deprivation issues and social

:48:02. > :48:07.need issues. You were prepared to sacrifice calls that you saw as well

:48:08. > :48:12.off, more socially advantaged. -- schools. So that you can transfer

:48:13. > :48:18.the money to schools with a particular need. And you now are not

:48:19. > :48:26.going down that road? I haven't said that. Those schools with high free

:48:27. > :48:30.school milk intakes will see a significant rise in their budgets.

:48:31. > :48:34.It's not because it is laudable. If we go back to be health debate, the

:48:35. > :48:40.Royal Victoria was still faces significant pressures so I was

:48:41. > :48:43.suggesting we shouldn't target... We have schools who are facing

:48:44. > :48:47.significant pressures because of the social economic intake. That is

:48:48. > :48:51.where we need to target resources if we are going to give those young

:48:52. > :48:57.people a chance in life and make sure they contribute to our society.

:48:58. > :49:02.But the charge was you were robbing Peter to Papal. You have got the

:49:03. > :49:05.money from somewhere else. You say you were able to find the money

:49:06. > :49:08.without any difficulty, why did you not think of that before you put the

:49:09. > :49:13.schools who thought they were going to lose out through the trauma they

:49:14. > :49:19.have been through? I have debated this issue with used several times.

:49:20. > :49:23.You have changed your position. You sat in that seat and said, tough,

:49:24. > :49:26.this is what's happening and I can't do anything about it. You are now

:49:27. > :49:34.saying, I was always able to do something about it. Perhaps you

:49:35. > :49:38.weren't listening! The fact of the matter is, I have always sat here

:49:39. > :49:43.and said to you, there is ?15.8 million included in the part, it is

:49:44. > :49:48.how I make that up that is the important thing. Schools with high

:49:49. > :49:53.free school meal intakes will receive additional funding, that is

:49:54. > :49:56.where resources are needed. I believe it is the right thing to do,

:49:57. > :50:02.because all the evidence tells me it's the right thing to do. Was this

:50:03. > :50:07.all a great fuss about nothing? This has been a very good debate. But the

:50:08. > :50:13.teachers, parents who thought they were going to lose out... If we are

:50:14. > :50:17.going to move forward as a society, these are the bread-and-butter

:50:18. > :50:20.debates we need to be having. Politicians are often criticised for

:50:21. > :50:24.not dealing with those issues, this is literally a bread-and-butter

:50:25. > :50:30.issue. Thank you for coming in and joining us. Plans to cut funding

:50:31. > :50:32.from four Belfast-based Irish language groups have put the

:50:33. > :50:36.organisations on a potential collision course with Sinn Fein. The

:50:37. > :50:39.Culture Minister, Caral ni Chuilin, has backed a new funding model for

:50:40. > :50:42.Irish groups across Ireland - but none will be based here. Groups

:50:43. > :50:45.which gave evidence at Stormont say local Irish language provision will

:50:46. > :50:46.suffer. Our Political Reporter, Stephen Walker, has been

:50:47. > :51:04.investigating. This war of words is very different.

:51:05. > :51:10.Sinn Fein are used to doing political battle with Unionists over

:51:11. > :51:13.the use and promotion of the Irish language, but this row has brought

:51:14. > :51:20.the party into conflict with the very people who have spent decades

:51:21. > :51:24.promoting Irish in Northern Ireland. Last year, the culture minister,

:51:25. > :51:29.Caral ni Chuilin, endorsed the new funding model for Irish groups

:51:30. > :51:35.across the island. Under the cross party group, six new groups will

:51:36. > :51:45.take up work previously done by 19. It means Belfast waste groups will

:51:46. > :51:49.disappear. -- Belfast -based groups. It will have a detrimental effect on

:51:50. > :51:53.services for the Irish language community. We are talking about

:51:54. > :51:57.dismantling the whole of the infrastructure for the Irish

:51:58. > :52:04.language community. You think Sinn Fein have misjudged this? It seems

:52:05. > :52:09.to me that yes, they have. Whether they set out to do that or not, I am

:52:10. > :52:16.not sure, but these are the consequences of the decisions made

:52:17. > :52:19.at the ministerial Council. As an all Ireland party, Sinn Fein

:52:20. > :52:24.actually like the idea of Irish language provision on a 32 county,

:52:25. > :52:29.all Ireland basis. Money and particular the amount spent on

:52:30. > :52:35.salaries, is part of their argument for change. It's more important to

:52:36. > :52:41.focus on spending the money wisely in future. A slimmer organisation

:52:42. > :52:45.which delivers more efficiently and effectively, that is what Sinn Fein

:52:46. > :52:52.wants to see, we want to see that delivered in Belfast, in the north

:52:53. > :52:56.and throughout the whole island. Another group could vanish. The West

:52:57. > :53:05.Belfast body works in the Irish free school sector. Since 2008, they have

:53:06. > :53:08.had nearly ?1 million. The group has secured half a million from other

:53:09. > :53:13.sources. Staff here reject suggestions that too much money is

:53:14. > :53:22.spent on salaries. We have actually been paid pro rata a lot less than

:53:23. > :53:32.people would be in the South. The same kind of work as we are doing.

:53:33. > :53:37.We don't think we are overstaffed and we certainly don't think we are

:53:38. > :53:40.overpaid! The change will mean all six of the newly groups are in the

:53:41. > :53:46.Republic. None of them are in Northern Ireland. This was not about

:53:47. > :53:51.North versus South, East versus West. This is about promoting the

:53:52. > :53:56.language and providing better services in a more efficient way to

:53:57. > :54:01.the Irish language communities. It's about getting people out into the

:54:02. > :54:05.community, providing services. If electronics rather than politics is

:54:06. > :54:13.driving this debate, have Sinn Fein got this one right? It could be

:54:14. > :54:17.linked to the austerity agenda in the South, it is curious to see Sinn

:54:18. > :54:22.Fein, who are so anti-austerity in the south supporting this, claiming

:54:23. > :54:29.it is part of an all Ireland agenda that they have. It is curious they

:54:30. > :54:33.would pick on the northern groups, who were receiving only a fraction

:54:34. > :54:41.of the funding in the first place. Pebble, the umbrella organisation,

:54:42. > :54:46.and a development agency, will also face budget cuts. Across all the

:54:47. > :54:51.northern -based groups, it is feared around fifth in jobs could be lost.

:54:52. > :54:57.The funding for those is going to disappear after 31st of June. We are

:54:58. > :55:04.in the middle of February, so you can imagine, it is a grey cloud over

:55:05. > :55:08.everybody. On the 30th of June, when core funding is removed, these

:55:09. > :55:12.offices will close and the staff will be made redundant. Sinn Fein

:55:13. > :55:18.say talk of redundancies is premature. The people who have

:55:19. > :55:22.worked in those groups, I feel, need to be part of the new arrangement so

:55:23. > :55:27.they need to be engaging with the lead group which deals with their

:55:28. > :55:32.range of work. Some of them will be made redundant. Nobody knows that

:55:33. > :55:36.for sure because the process is still ongoing, and we don't know who

:55:37. > :55:41.is going to be redundant stop Sinn Fein insist they have done much to

:55:42. > :55:47.promote the Irish language. So does their stance on this issue caused

:55:48. > :55:52.political difficulties? It is oddly partition list, from a nationalist

:55:53. > :55:57.or republican perspective. Politically, it makes sense for Sinn

:55:58. > :56:00.Fein, they will create this all Ireland structure, they have this

:56:01. > :56:05.minister, Caral ni Chuilin, who has an important role in driving that,

:56:06. > :56:09.but it does look very odd when Sinn Fein would never normally refuse to

:56:10. > :56:17.call for more money or special treatment or local favouritism, for

:56:18. > :56:21.any issue. The Irish language sector is facing its biggest ever change.

:56:22. > :56:25.This week some of those facing budget cuts went to Stormont to

:56:26. > :56:28.argue their case. They hope their words were listened to and those

:56:29. > :56:37.planning this move will have a last-minute change of heart.

:56:38. > :56:43.Sheila Davidson and Orna Young are with them. Let's talk about

:56:44. > :56:53.education. Has the Minister had to think again about his policy as far

:56:54. > :56:58.as the common -- as far as the Common Funding Formula is concerned?

:56:59. > :57:06.Clearly there has been, it smacks to me of a postponement, of the

:57:07. > :57:09.inevitable, it effectively. But it is interesting that he made the

:57:10. > :57:13.point, there is plenty of money there, I am able to reorganise my

:57:14. > :57:16.budget to deal with this issue. My question was, why not do that before

:57:17. > :57:23.you put the principals, teachers and parents through the discomfort they

:57:24. > :57:26.have been through? For me, it is political playacting. You pull the

:57:27. > :57:31.rabbit out of the hat, 15 million out of the hat, I have solved the

:57:32. > :57:33.problem that I established in the first instance. The fact remains

:57:34. > :57:38.that an awful lot of school resources went into responding, and

:57:39. > :57:44.it seems to me that the one thing he says that is the best thing out of

:57:45. > :57:49.all of this, was the engagement. Why have such a negative engagement? Why

:57:50. > :57:54.put that 50 million into the schools if that metric is the best one,

:57:55. > :57:58.which I think is questionable. At the end of the day, why not just

:57:59. > :58:01.give it out and not have the resource of all the schools you had

:58:02. > :58:06.to submit plans and have the worry of contingencies, which they have

:58:07. > :58:12.had to start taking about, taken out of the way? I will come back to you

:58:13. > :58:16.both in a moment. Now, let's take a look back at this week's political

:58:17. > :58:21.news in 60 seconds - with Stephen Walker.

:58:22. > :58:34.Health dominated politics as the Royal's department came under

:58:35. > :58:39.scrutiny. Allegations of bullying, staff under intolerable pressure...

:58:40. > :58:43.I'm flabbergasted with what I've heard tonight. I have heard talk

:58:44. > :58:48.about the Royal as if this is only emerged over the last few days.

:58:49. > :58:55.Another MLA also had health concerns. Another survey, 12 months

:58:56. > :59:02.down the line, in those 12 months millions will have died waiting on

:59:03. > :59:08.transplants. Gregory Campbell told Martin McGuinness how to make

:59:09. > :59:12.friends and influence people. Counting the number of people who do

:59:13. > :59:17.speak to you and don't speak to you at Stormont, making you look and

:59:18. > :59:31.sound like a real loser. There was a call to ban election posters.

:59:32. > :59:40.Election posters, are they ever going to be banned? I would like to

:59:41. > :59:46.fix. I think they are unsightly. Strangely old-fashioned, aren't

:59:47. > :59:50.they? I couldn't agree more. I think those who are on the ball have

:59:51. > :59:57.already engaged with social media. Sheila, you are a PR expert, how big

:59:58. > :00:00.an own goal be to have the eyes of hundreds of millions of people on

:00:01. > :00:04.Northern Ireland, looking at election posters? I don't know if it

:00:05. > :00:12.would be so terrible, I think we could do without them... They are

:00:13. > :00:14.not the most attractive... But we're not going to know any of these

:00:15. > :00:20.people standing for election! This might be the only way. Even you

:00:21. > :00:25.couldn't have them all on. This is going to be a massive change in

:00:26. > :00:30.terms of the faces coming forward. I am looking forward to seeing and

:00:31. > :00:35.hearing some new voices and faces. You think it might influence you,

:00:36. > :00:39.the posters? Not a bit of it. Thank you both.

:00:40. > :00:47.direction? No, in real terms now the rent is falling in London. Andrew,

:00:48. > :00:50.back to you. Welcome back. Let's start by talking

:00:51. > :00:54.about the weather. What could be more British? It has been

:00:55. > :00:57.practically the only topic of conversation for the past few

:00:58. > :01:02.weeks. This morning, Ed Miliband has made the direct link, declaims,

:01:03. > :01:08.between this exceptionally wet and windy weather and climate change.

:01:09. > :01:13.That's an interesting development, taking place. Ed Miliband is the

:01:14. > :01:22.author of the 2008 Climate Change Act, so he has to stick to that line

:01:23. > :01:28.or his life 's work goes up in smoke. When he passed it, there was

:01:29. > :01:32.Westminster consensus. Now the Tories are beginning to appeal off.

:01:33. > :01:37.UKIP has definitely peeled off. Labour and Lib Dems are sticking to

:01:38. > :01:41.their guns, there is now a debate? It has moved from consensus to very

:01:42. > :01:44.fragile consensus. It's an interesting tactic for Ed Miliband

:01:45. > :01:48.to take. He could either approach the floods talking about government

:01:49. > :01:51.failures and handling, instead he has gone for the intellectual

:01:52. > :01:56.argument, try and turn this into a debate about ideology and climate

:01:57. > :02:00.change. I think he will find that quite difficult. Partly, I don't

:02:01. > :02:05.think the public I get listening to an argument like that. Partly

:02:06. > :02:08.because only one in three of the public totally agree with him. The

:02:09. > :02:13.polls for The Times think that about one in three think that man-made I'm

:02:14. > :02:17.a change is responsible for these floods, the rest do not. I'm not

:02:18. > :02:21.sure that the interventions will be particularly well picked up. It puts

:02:22. > :02:26.David Cameron in a difficult position. He was hugging those

:02:27. > :02:31.huskies, it was going to be the greenest Government ever, and now he

:02:32. > :02:36.has an Environment secretary that doesn't really believe in climate

:02:37. > :02:40.change. Well, we don't know where he stands. That is not where he was in

:02:41. > :02:44.2010. It has always been sold to us that he is statesman-like and

:02:45. > :02:48.pragmatic, but that drifts into he doesn't really believe anything.

:02:49. > :02:52.This is a worldwide phenomenon now. You've got the Canadian government,

:02:53. > :02:57.they are pretty sceptical these days. The new Australian government

:02:58. > :03:00.is pretty sceptical. The Obama administration has been attacked by

:03:01. > :03:05.the green movement across the United States, he is probably about to

:03:06. > :03:15.approve the keystone pipeline that will take over the Texas refineries.

:03:16. > :03:20.What was a huge consensus across the globe is a guinea to break down?

:03:21. > :03:23.Probably started to break down about the time of the financial crisis,

:03:24. > :03:28.the age of austerity, when suddenly people had more to worry about than

:03:29. > :03:30.green issues. Even at home it is a slightly risky tactic for Ed

:03:31. > :03:34.Miliband. The idea there is a scientific consensus on this, there

:03:35. > :03:40.isn't. You look at Professor Collins this morning, climate systems

:03:41. > :03:43.expert, saying, actually, the jet stream is not operating further

:03:44. > :03:47.south because of climate change. Or if it is, it is beyond our

:03:48. > :03:53.knowledge. He flies in the face of what Ed Miliband as saying. He's

:03:54. > :03:58.saying the wet weather is caused by global warming, the head of science

:03:59. > :04:00.at Exeter University says the IPCC originally looked at whether climate

:04:01. > :04:05.change could affect what happens to the jet stream and, because it had

:04:06. > :04:12.no evidence it had any effect, it decided not to include it at all in

:04:13. > :04:14.the IPCC report. The problem we have got is that any individual

:04:15. > :04:19.phenomenon is difficult to attribute to climate change. But the Labour

:04:20. > :04:23.Leader just have? And The Met Office have done the same thing. It's a

:04:24. > :04:27.fragile in, but overall we can say we are getting more extreme weather

:04:28. > :04:30.than ever. The most extreme weather, hurricanes and tropical storm is,

:04:31. > :04:36.they have been in decline. Equally, we have had ten of the hottest

:04:37. > :04:42.summers in the last ten years since 1998. Overall, there is a case that

:04:43. > :04:48.can be made that we are getting more. Each individual thing is

:04:49. > :04:51.difficult to say. Until recently, almost everyone agreed with that

:04:52. > :04:56.case. Now the parties are reflecting differences. I wanted to move on,

:04:57. > :05:02.what did you make of two interesting things that happened with the

:05:03. > :05:08.interview with UKIP and the Tories, one Cory saying I am voting to come

:05:09. > :05:12.out, and the UKIP chap saying we are maxed out on Tory defectors, we

:05:13. > :05:15.can't get any more? I think that was a dangerous admission from Patrick

:05:16. > :05:20.O'Flynn from UKIP, essentially saying that their vote has peaked.

:05:21. > :05:25.Looking at the by-elections, I'm not sure that was a particularly wise

:05:26. > :05:30.reflection on that. They got 18%, 23% last year. The case he is making

:05:31. > :05:33.is that there are more votes to be gained by attracting former Labour

:05:34. > :05:38.voters than former Tories. I'm not sure that red UKIP, the bit of UKIP

:05:39. > :05:41.that tries to make benefit protection and some other kind of

:05:42. > :05:45.social issues at the heart really sits comfortably with their

:05:46. > :05:51.insurgent, anti-state message. I don't think it will do particularly

:05:52. > :05:55.well. This is why they are pushing the message, it is their response to

:05:56. > :06:00.the idea and suggestion of a Tory rallying cry that they vote for

:06:01. > :06:05.Nigel Farage, and it is really a vote for Ed Miliband. Patrick is a

:06:06. > :06:09.very good journalist, a very good commentator. He answered almost as a

:06:10. > :06:14.commentator rather than head of communications for a political

:06:15. > :06:20.party. The Government are still trying to rid itself of troublesome

:06:21. > :06:24.priests, an attack on welfare reforms from the Catholic Archbishop

:06:25. > :06:30.of Westminster. Let's have a look and see what he said. The basic

:06:31. > :06:36.safety net that was there to guarantee that people would not be

:06:37. > :06:41.left in hunger or in destitution has actually been torn apart. It no

:06:42. > :06:49.longer exists. And it is a real, real, dramatic crisis. The second is

:06:50. > :06:53.that, in this context, the administration of social assistance,

:06:54. > :06:57.I am told, has become more and more punitive. If applicants do not get

:06:58. > :07:03.it right, they have to wait and they have to wait for ten days, two

:07:04. > :07:08.weeks, with nothing. Has the basic safety net disappeared? I don't see

:07:09. > :07:10.how it is possible to argue that. It is certainly the case that there

:07:11. > :07:14.have been reductions in various benefits, some benefits have been

:07:15. > :07:18.scrapped and there is a welfare reform programme. But this country

:07:19. > :07:27.is still spending ?94 billion a year on working age benefits. Excluding

:07:28. > :07:32.pensions? The idea that this equates to some sort of wiping out of the

:07:33. > :07:37.safety net is... He has gone on a full frontal assault on the Tory

:07:38. > :07:42.reforms, not the kind of attack that Labour would be prepared to make?

:07:43. > :07:49.No, they know that it doesn't play very well in the country. He's not

:07:50. > :07:52.up for election. Whether or not you agree about the safety net, I think

:07:53. > :07:56.the welfare reforms have been poorly managed and I don't think that is a

:07:57. > :08:00.full dispute. Universal credit, it is in some very long grass. It had

:08:01. > :08:03.some stupid ideas, like the idea that it would be paid monthly,

:08:04. > :08:07.instead of weekly, meaning that people are more likely to run out of

:08:08. > :08:11.money by the end of the month. It's interesting, in the past, when

:08:12. > :08:15.members of the cloth have attacked the government for welfare reforms,

:08:16. > :08:20.the Government have responded by trying to paint them as lefties,

:08:21. > :08:25.ideological driven. I think that is hard in this case, an assault made

:08:26. > :08:28.deliberately in the Telegraph from somebody who feels they come from a

:08:29. > :08:32.centre-right position. I think there will be a bit of awkwardness about

:08:33. > :08:36.this intervention. It is not the kind of thing they wanted to see. Is

:08:37. > :08:41.it politically damaging for the Government? It is if it makes them

:08:42. > :08:44.look mean-spirited. But that is the problem with welfare reforms. You

:08:45. > :08:50.can say all sorts of things about Iain Duncan Smith's competence. But

:08:51. > :08:54.the whole thing springs from a moral mission, as he sees it, to liberate

:08:55. > :08:58.the poor and extend opportunity. One of the worst moments for the Tories

:08:59. > :09:02.was blaming the low level of voting in Wythenshawe and sale in the fact

:09:03. > :09:06.that the constituency had, in the words of one senior Tory, the

:09:07. > :09:11.largest council estate in Europe inside its constituency boundary.

:09:12. > :09:15.The point being what? Because you live in a council estate you don't

:09:16. > :09:19.vote? That they don't see people living in council estate as one of

:09:20. > :09:23.them, not an impulse that Margaret Thatcher would have had. I think

:09:24. > :09:27.it's dangerous if they are painting is people as opponents rather than

:09:28. > :09:31.trying to win them over. When they do vote, they determine elections!

:09:32. > :09:38.The idea that there is no such thing as a working-class Tory is toxic. I

:09:39. > :09:45.want to show you a picture. There we go. It is behind me, on the 5th of

:09:46. > :09:52.February, it is all men. And then, on the next, look at that, the 12th,

:09:53. > :09:56.there are a few women. Not exactly many, but some. It is an

:09:57. > :10:01.improvement. But it is so transparent, isn't it? We phoned up

:10:02. > :10:05.one of the women that sat behind David Cameron to ask, why the sudden

:10:06. > :10:09.change? They said, I don't know why you are bothering to ask, it is

:10:10. > :10:14.completely natural, we didn't do anything to stage manage it. Did his

:10:15. > :10:17.nose gets longer? It is something that is very transparent and

:10:18. > :10:23.depressing about the way politicians choose to react to these moments.

:10:24. > :10:30.Every week they put two women behind David Cameron, so that a tight shot

:10:31. > :10:34.shows them. It is called the doughnut. They don't have many women

:10:35. > :10:39.to shuffle around, there are only four among 14 in the Shadow Cabinet.

:10:40. > :10:43.Also, the fact that women, younger women in particular, are much less

:10:44. > :10:49.likely to vote Tory than five or ten years ago. David Cameron, it drives

:10:50. > :10:55.and furious, he is obviously aware this is one of the biggest potential

:10:56. > :10:59.demographic problem is that they have. It also reminds us of how the

:11:00. > :11:02.public can actually see the wiring behind a lot of the stuff. Do they

:11:03. > :11:08.really think your blog so stupid that they will not notice that the

:11:09. > :11:12.following week the front bench is packed with women? I think it just

:11:13. > :11:17.increases contempt for the entire rocket. It is an issue where Labour

:11:18. > :11:21.seem to have pulled ahead of the other parties. We are being told

:11:22. > :11:27.that 50% of candidates in their 100 target seats will be female. It

:11:28. > :11:32.looks like the composition of Labour continues to go towards a kind of

:11:33. > :11:37.rough 50-50 split, eventually. Although that is true, I think the

:11:38. > :11:41.faces we see on the telly, Ed Miliband, Ed Balls, Chris Leslie,

:11:42. > :11:46.they are almost always men. There is a Rachel Reeves, a prominent female

:11:47. > :11:51.face that goes up a lot. But really, the number of e-mails they put up is

:11:52. > :11:58.proportionally a lot smaller. Is the Miliband team still a men's club?

:11:59. > :12:02.Behind the scenes, it is very blokey. It's been described as a

:12:03. > :12:07.kind of seminar room at a university. I think that is true.

:12:08. > :12:13.The Observer did the cutout and keep of the people behind Mr Miliband. As

:12:14. > :12:18.opposed to the Shadow Cabinet, with lots of women in it, it was very

:12:19. > :12:20.male. The one reason Labour have all of these women to put up in

:12:21. > :12:26.constituencies is all women short lists is. If Tories want to change

:12:27. > :12:38.things, I know they can be prone to minute -- and in relation, but they

:12:39. > :12:45.work. In ten years time, I think it will give Labour an immense

:12:46. > :12:51.advantage. By then, I think they will have a woman leader. Who will

:12:52. > :12:54.that be? Potentially somebody not even yet in the Commons. You can see

:12:55. > :13:03.how quickly people can rise to the top, but the Labour Party is going

:13:04. > :13:06.to be increasingly donated by women. Do you think there will be a Labour

:13:07. > :13:12.Leader before Theresa May becomes leader of the Conservatives? I think

:13:13. > :13:16.it is ultimately about Osborne trying to stop Boris. I think I

:13:17. > :13:24.would be astonished if she managed it. The first female Labour Leader?

:13:25. > :13:28.I would pick Rachel Reeves the way it is currently going, she knows her

:13:29. > :13:36.stuff and does well on TV. That is all for this week. We have a week

:13:37. > :13:41.off now. I'll be back in the week after next. Remember, if it is

:13:42. > :13:44.Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics, unless it's a Parliamentary recess.