:00:37. > :00:44.Morning folks. Welcome to the Sunday Politics. George Osborne's fifth
:00:45. > :00:47.Budget will offer more tax relief for the lower paid but not for
:00:48. > :00:49.middle income earners being thrust into the 40p tax bracket. That's our
:00:50. > :00:54.top story. Ed Balls says millions of people
:00:55. > :00:57.aren't feeling any benefit from the recovery. We'll discuss the economy
:00:58. > :01:04.with big political beasts from Labour, the Conservatives, and the
:01:05. > :01:07.Lib Dems. Now that Ed Miliband has effectively ruled out an in/out EU
:01:08. > :01:09.referendum, how does UKIP deal with Tory claims that a vote for UKIP
:01:10. > :01:25.means no of cycling. The three areas of
:01:26. > :01:33.London getting a cash boost to try something different.
:01:34. > :01:37.And with me as always our top political panel - Nick Watt, Helen
:01:38. > :01:40.Lewis and Janan Ganesh. They'll be tweeting their thoughts using the
:01:41. > :01:44.hashtag #bbcsp throughout the programme. So, just three months
:01:45. > :01:48.after his last major financial statement, George Osborne will be at
:01:49. > :01:53.the despatch box again on Wednesday, delivering his 2014 Budget. The
:01:54. > :02:02.Chancellor has already previewed his own speech, pledging to build what
:02:03. > :02:07.he calls a "resilient economy". The message I will give in the Budget is
:02:08. > :02:11.the economic plan is working but the job is far from done. We need to
:02:12. > :02:14.build resilient economy which means addressing the long-term weaknesses
:02:15. > :02:18.in Britain that we don't export enough, invest enough, build enough,
:02:19. > :02:22.make enough. Those are the things I will address because we want Britain
:02:23. > :02:25.to earn its way in the world. George Osborne's opposite number, Ed Balls,
:02:26. > :02:28.has also been talking ahead of the Budget. He says not everyone is
:02:29. > :02:31.feeling the benefit of the economic recovery, and again attacked the
:02:32. > :02:38.Government's decision to reduce the top rate of tax from 50 to 45%.
:02:39. > :02:41.George Osborne is only ever tough when he's having a go at the week
:02:42. > :02:45.and the voiceless. Labour is willing to face up to people on the highest
:02:46. > :02:51.incomes and say, I'm sorry, justifying a big tax cut at this
:02:52. > :02:55.time is not fair. We will take away the winter allowance from the richer
:02:56. > :02:58.pensioners, and I think that's the right thing to do. George Osborne
:02:59. > :03:04.might agree, but he's not allowed to say so. That was the Chancellor and
:03:05. > :03:09.the shadow chancellor. Janan, it seems like we are in a race against
:03:10. > :03:12.time. No one argues that the recovery is not under way, in fact
:03:13. > :03:16.it looks quite strong after a long wait, but will it feed through to
:03:17. > :03:22.the living standards of ordinary people in time for the May election?
:03:23. > :03:26.They only have 14 months to do it. The big economic variable is
:03:27. > :03:30.business investment. Even during the downturn, businesses hoarded a lot
:03:31. > :03:34.of cash. The question is, are they confident enough to release that
:03:35. > :03:38.into investment and wages? Taking on new people, giving them higher pay
:03:39. > :03:41.settlements. That could make the difference and the country will feel
:03:42. > :03:48.more prosperous and this time next year. But come to think of it, it
:03:49. > :03:52.strikes me, that how anticipated it is, it's the least talked about
:03:53. > :03:56.Budget for many years. I think that is because the economy has settled
:03:57. > :04:00.down a bit, but also because people have got used to the idea that there
:04:01. > :04:04.is no such thing as a giveaway. Anything that is a tax cut will be
:04:05. > :04:08.taken away as a tax rise or spending cut. That's true during the good
:04:09. > :04:14.times but during fiscal consolidation, it's avoidable. --
:04:15. > :04:18.unavoidable. There is a plus and minus for the Conservatives here.
:04:19. > :04:23.49% of people think the government is on roughly the right course, but
:04:24. > :04:27.only 16% think that their financial circumstances will improve this
:04:28. > :04:32.year. It will be a tough one for the Labour Party to respond to. I agree
:04:33. > :04:37.with Janan. Everyone seems bored with the run-up to the Budget. The
:04:38. > :04:41.front page of the Sunday Times was about fox hunting, the front page of
:04:42. > :04:46.the Sunday Telegraph was about EU renegotiation. Maybe we are saying
:04:47. > :04:52.this because there have not been many leaks. We have got used to
:04:53. > :04:57.them, and most of the George Osborne chat on Twitter was about how long
:04:58. > :05:05.his tie was. Freakishly long. I wouldn't dare to speculate why.
:05:06. > :05:10.Anything we should read into that? I don't know. For a long while there
:05:11. > :05:14.was no recovery, then it was it is a weak recovery, and now, all right,
:05:15. > :05:19.it's strong but not reaching everyone in the country. That is
:05:20. > :05:26.where we are in the debate. That's right, and the Conservative MPs are
:05:27. > :05:29.so anxious and they are making George Osborne announcing the rays
:05:30. > :05:34.in the personal allowance will go up, saying it might go up to 10,750
:05:35. > :05:42.from next year, and Conservative MPs say that that's OK but we need to
:05:43. > :05:45.think about the middle voters. People are saying the economy is
:05:46. > :05:49.recovering but no one is feeling it in their pocket. These are people
:05:50. > :05:54.snagged in at a 40p tax rate. The Tories are saying these are our
:05:55. > :05:57.people and we have to get to them. He has given the Lib Dems more than
:05:58. > :06:04.they could have hoped for on raising the threshold. Why is he not saying
:06:05. > :06:08.we have done a bit for you, now we have to look after our people and
:06:09. > :06:15.get some of these people out of that 40% bracket? Partly because the Lib
:06:16. > :06:17.Dems have asked for it so insistently behind-the-scenes.
:06:18. > :06:21.Somebody from the Treasury this week told me that these debates behind
:06:22. > :06:25.the scenes between the Lib Dems and Tories are incredibly tenacious and
:06:26. > :06:28.get more so every year. The Lib Dems have been insistent about going
:06:29. > :06:33.further on the threshold. The second reason is that the Tories think the
:06:34. > :06:39.issue can work for them in the next election. They can take the credit.
:06:40. > :06:42.If they enthusiastically going to ?12,000 and make it a manifesto
:06:43. > :06:48.pledge, they can claim ownership of the policy. The Liberal Democrats
:06:49. > :06:52.want to take it to 12,500, which means you are getting into minimum
:06:53. > :06:56.wage territory. It's incredibly expensive and the Tories are saying
:06:57. > :07:01.that maybe you would be looking at the 40p rate. The Tories have played
:07:02. > :07:05.as well. There have been authorised briefings about the 40p rate, and
:07:06. > :07:08.Cameron and Osborne have said that their priority was helping the
:07:09. > :07:11.lowest paid which is a useful statement to make and it appeals to
:07:12. > :07:17.the UKIP voters who are the blue-collar workers. And we are
:07:18. > :07:24.right, the economy will determine the next election? You assume so. It
:07:25. > :07:31.was ever that is. It didn't in 1992 or 1987. It did in 1992.
:07:32. > :07:35.Ed Miliband's announcement last week that a Labour government would not
:07:36. > :07:38.hold a referendum on Europe unless there's another transfer of powers
:07:39. > :07:40.from Britain to Brussels has certainly clarified matters. UKIP
:07:41. > :07:45.say it just shows the mainstream parties can't be trusted. The
:07:46. > :07:49.Conservatives think it means UKIP voters might now flock back to them
:07:50. > :07:50.as the only realistic chance of securing a referendum. Giles Dilnot
:07:51. > :07:56.reports. When it comes to Europe and
:07:57. > :08:00.Britain's relation to it, the question is whether the answer is
:08:01. > :08:04.answered by a question. To be in or not to be in, that is the question,
:08:05. > :08:07.and our politicians have seemed less interested in question itself but
:08:08. > :08:15.whether they want to let us answer it. Labour clarified their position
:08:16. > :08:23.last week. There will be no transfer of powers without an in out
:08:24. > :08:26.referendum, without a clear choice as to whether Britain will stay in
:08:27. > :08:31.the EU. That seems yes to a referendum, but hold on. I believe
:08:32. > :08:36.it is unlikely that this lock will be used in the next Parliament. So
:08:37. > :08:45.that's a no. The Conservatives say yes to asking, in 2017, if
:08:46. > :08:48.re-elected, but haven't always. In 2011, 81 Tory MPs defied the PM by
:08:49. > :08:51.voting for a referendum on EU membership: the largest rebellion
:08:52. > :09:01.against a Tory prime minister over Europe. Prompted by a petition from
:09:02. > :09:05.over 100,000 members of the public. The wrong question at the wrong time
:09:06. > :09:06.said the Foreign Secretary of a coalition Government including
:09:07. > :09:09.selfie-conciously-pro European Lib Dems, who had a referendum pledge in
:09:10. > :09:12.their 2010 manifesto, but only in certain circumstances. So we have
:09:13. > :09:15.the newspapers, and the public meeting leaflets. UKIP have always
:09:16. > :09:18.wanted the question put regardless. But Labour's new position may change
:09:19. > :09:28.things and The Conservatives think so. I think it does, because, you
:09:29. > :09:32.know, we are saying very clearly, like UKIP, we want a referendum, but
:09:33. > :09:40.only a Conservative government can deliver it because most suffer
:09:41. > :09:46.largest would say it is possible in the first past the post system to
:09:47. > :09:54.have a UKIP government -- sophologists. And then it's easy for
:09:55. > :10:02.as to say that if a UKIP vote lets in a Conservative government, then
:10:03. > :10:04.they won't hold a referendum. UKIP seem undaunted by the clarifications
:10:05. > :10:08.of the other parties, campaigning like the rest but with a "tell it
:10:09. > :10:14.how it is, just saying what you're thinking, we aren't like them"
:10:15. > :10:19.attitude. They seem more worried about us and what we want, and I
:10:20. > :10:22.don't see that in the other parties. In parts of the UK, like South
:10:23. > :10:29.Essex, it's a message they think is working. They are taking the voters
:10:30. > :10:36.for granted again and people have had enough. People are angry, they
:10:37. > :10:41.see people saying they will get a vote on the European Union, but then
:10:42. > :10:46.it just comes down the road. They were quick to capitalise on the
:10:47. > :10:53.announcements, saying only the Conservatives will give you say, so
:10:54. > :10:55.does it change things? Not really. We have been talking about a
:10:56. > :10:59.referendum and having a debate on the European Union for years, and
:11:00. > :11:03.the other parties are playing catch up. They have a trust issue. Nobody
:11:04. > :11:08.trusts them on the European Union and that is why people come to us.
:11:09. > :11:10.Who the average UKIP voter is, or how they voted before is
:11:11. > :11:13.complicated, and what dent they might make on Conservative and
:11:14. > :11:19.Labour votes in 2015 is trickier still, but someone's been crunching
:11:20. > :11:24.the numbers anyway. We reckon it is between 25 and 30% of the electorate
:11:25. > :11:28.broadly share the UKIP motivation, so to top out at that level would be
:11:29. > :11:33.difficult. That's an awful lot of voters, but it's not the majority,
:11:34. > :11:36.and this is the reason why the main parties can't afford to just openly
:11:37. > :11:41.appealed to the UKIP electorate too hard because the elections are won
:11:42. > :11:46.and lost amongst the other 70%, the middle-class, the graduate, the
:11:47. > :11:50.younger, ethnic minorities. An appeal to the values of UKIP voters
:11:51. > :11:54.will alienate some of the other groups, and they are arguably more
:11:55. > :11:57.significant in winning the election. Whatever, the numbers UKIPers seem
:11:58. > :11:58.doggedly determined to dig away at any support the other parties have
:11:59. > :12:04.previously enjoyed. Giles Dilnot reporting. UKIP's
:12:05. > :12:16.leader, Nigel Farage, joins me now for the Sunday Interview.
:12:17. > :12:23.Nigel Farage, welcome back. Good morning. So the Labour Party has
:12:24. > :12:28.shot a fox. If Ed Miliband is the next by Minister, there will not be
:12:29. > :12:31.a referendum customer there's a long way between now and the next
:12:32. > :12:34.election, and Conservative party jobs and changes. We had a cast-iron
:12:35. > :12:37.guarantee of a referendum from camera, then he three line whip
:12:38. > :12:42.people to vote against it, and now they are for it. What the Labour
:12:43. > :12:45.Party has done is open up a huge blank to us, and that is what we
:12:46. > :12:50.will go for in the European elections this coming year in May. I
:12:51. > :12:53.think there is a very strong chance that Labour will match the
:12:54. > :12:56.Conservative pledge by the next general election. There may be, but
:12:57. > :13:01.at the moment he has ruled it out, and if he does not change his mind
:13:02. > :13:08.and goes into the election with the policy as it is, the only chance of
:13:09. > :13:12.a referendum is a Tory government. If you think the Tories will form a
:13:13. > :13:15.majority, which I think is unlikely. Remember, two thirds of our voters
:13:16. > :13:20.would never vote Conservative anyway. There is still this line of
:13:21. > :13:23.questioning that assumes UKIP voters are middle-class Tories. We have
:13:24. > :13:27.some voters like that, but most of them are coming to us from Labour,
:13:28. > :13:34.some from the Lib Dems and a lot of nonvoters. But it come the election
:13:35. > :13:38.you failed to change Mr Miliband's line, I repeat, the only chance of a
:13:39. > :13:41.referendum, if you want a referendum, if that is what matters,
:13:42. > :13:46.and the polls suggest it doesn't matter to that many people, but if
:13:47. > :13:51.that is what matters, the only way you can get one is to vote
:13:52. > :13:54.Conservative. No, because you have a situation in key marginals,
:13:55. > :13:59.especially where all three parties are getting a good share, where we
:14:00. > :14:05.will see, and this depends a lot on the local elections and the European
:14:06. > :14:08.elections, there are target constituencies where UKIP has a
:14:09. > :14:13.reasonably good chance of winning a seat, and that will change the
:14:14. > :14:18.agenda. Every vote for UKIP makes a Tory government less likely. Arab
:14:19. > :14:22.voters are not Tory. Only a third of the UKIP boat comes from the
:14:23. > :14:28.Conservative party -- our voters are not Tory. -- the UKIP vote. It was
:14:29. > :14:32.mentioned earlier, about blue-collar voters. We pick up far more Labour
:14:33. > :14:35.Party and nonvoters than conservatives. On the balance of
:14:36. > :14:39.what the effect of the UKIP boat is, the Tories should worry about
:14:40. > :14:44.us, they should worry about the fact they have lost faith with their own
:14:45. > :14:48.electorate. Even if there is a minority Ed Miliband government, it
:14:49. > :14:52.means no referendum. Labour and the Liberal Democrats are now at one on
:14:53. > :14:57.the matter. The next election is in a few weeks time, the European
:14:58. > :15:00.elections. What happens in those elections will likely change the
:15:01. > :15:04.party stands and position on a referendum. The fact that Ed
:15:05. > :15:08.Miliband has said this means, for us, our big target on the 22nd of
:15:09. > :15:12.May will be the Labour voters in the Midlands and northern cities, and if
:15:13. > :15:15.we do hammer into that boat and we are able to beat Labour on the day,
:15:16. > :15:28.there's a good chance of their policy changing. One poll this
:15:29. > :15:35.morning suggests Labour is close to you at 28, the Conservatives down at
:15:36. > :15:39.21, the Lib Dems down at eight. You are taking votes from the
:15:40. > :15:47.Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats. We are certainly taking
:15:48. > :15:51.votes from the Lib Dems but that is comparing the poll with one year ago
:15:52. > :15:57.when I don't think most people knew what the question really was. You
:15:58. > :16:00.seem to be in an impossible position because the better you do in a
:16:01. > :16:08.general election, the less chance there will be a referendum by 2020.
:16:09. > :16:14.No, look at the numbers. Only a third of our voters are
:16:15. > :16:18.Conservatives. When we have polled voters that have come to us, we
:16:19. > :16:22.asked them if there was no UKIP candidate who would you vote for,
:16:23. > :16:28.less than one in five said Conservative. Less than one in five
:16:29. > :16:31.UKIP voters would be tempted to vote Conservative under any circumstances
:16:32. > :16:37.so the arithmetic does not suggest we are the Conservative problem, it
:16:38. > :16:41.suggests we are hurting all of the parties and the reason the Tories
:16:42. > :16:47.are in trouble is because they have lost their traditional base. Why do
:16:48. > :16:53.you think Nick Clegg is debating Europe? I think they are in
:16:54. > :17:01.trouble, at 8% they could be wiped out, they could go from 12 to
:17:02. > :17:08.nothing and I think it is a chance for Nick Clegg to raise their
:17:09. > :17:13.profile. They are fringe party with respect to this contest so I see why
:17:14. > :17:16.he wants to do it. One of our big criticisms is that we have not been
:17:17. > :17:20.able to have a full debate on national television on the
:17:21. > :17:31.alternatives of the European Union so I am looking forward to it. How
:17:32. > :17:41.are you preparing? I think you can be over scripted with these things.
:17:42. > :17:45.Are you not doing mock debates? No, I am checking my facts and figures
:17:46. > :17:52.and making sure that I can show the British people that in terms of
:17:53. > :17:55.jobs, we would be far better off not being within the European Union, not
:17:56. > :18:00.being within its rule book, not suffering from some of the green
:18:01. > :18:06.taxes they are putting on the manufacturing industry. The idea
:18:07. > :18:13.that 3 million jobs are at risk, I want to show why that is nonsense.
:18:14. > :18:19.Who do you think is playing you in their mock debates? They probably
:18:20. > :18:25.went to the pub and found someone! We will see. You have promised to do
:18:26. > :18:31.whatever it takes to fund your European election campaign, how much
:18:32. > :18:36.has been given so far? Just give it a few weeks and you will see what
:18:37. > :18:46.Paul is planning to do. He has made a substantial investment in the
:18:47. > :18:51.campaign already. How much? I'm not answering that for now. We are well
:18:52. > :18:55.on our way to a properly funded campaign and our big target will be
:18:56. > :19:01.the big cities and the working vote in those communities. Your deputy
:19:02. > :19:06.chairman Neil Hamilton is another former Tory, he says so far we
:19:07. > :19:13.haven't seen the colour of his money. Exactly two weeks ago, and
:19:14. > :19:21.things have changed since then. Mr Sykes has written a cheque since
:19:22. > :19:27.then? Yes. This morning's papers saying you will be asking MEPs to
:19:28. > :19:35.contribute ?50,000 each, is that true? Over the next five years, yes.
:19:36. > :19:42.Not for the European campaign. So lack of money will not be an excuse.
:19:43. > :19:46.We will have a properly funded campaign. How we raise the kind of
:19:47. > :19:56.money needed to fund the general election afterwards is another
:19:57. > :20:01.question. What is UKIP's policy on paying family members? We don't
:20:02. > :20:06.encourage it and I didn't employ any family member for years. My wife
:20:07. > :20:13.ended up doing the job and paid for the first seven years of my job. She
:20:14. > :20:21.is paid now? Until May, then she comes off the payroll am which
:20:22. > :20:29.leaves me with a huge problem. In 2004 you said, UKIP MEPs will not
:20:30. > :20:32.employ wives and there will be no exceptions. An exception was made
:20:33. > :20:36.because I became leader of the National party as well as a leader
:20:37. > :20:41.of the group in European Parliament. Things do change in
:20:42. > :20:46.life, and you can criticise me for whatever you like, but I cannot be
:20:47. > :20:50.criticised for not having a big enough workload. No, but you didn't
:20:51. > :20:59.employ your wife when you had told others not to do it your party.
:21:00. > :21:04.Nobody else in my party has a big job in Europe and the UK. We made
:21:05. > :21:09.the exception for this because of very unusual circumstances. It also
:21:10. > :21:16.looks like there was a monetary calculation. Listen to this clip
:21:17. > :21:21.from a BBC documentary in 2000. It is a good job. I worked it out
:21:22. > :21:25.because so much of what you get is after tax that if you used the
:21:26. > :21:30.secretarial allowances to pay your wife on top of the other games you
:21:31. > :21:37.can play, I reckon this job in Stirling term is over a quarter of
:21:38. > :21:42.?1 million a year. That is what you would need to earn working for
:21:43. > :21:46.Goldman Sachs or someone like that. I agree with that. More importantly
:21:47. > :21:50.the way you really make money in the European Parliament is being their
:21:51. > :21:56.five days a week, because you sign in every day, you get 300 euros
:21:57. > :22:01.every day, and that is how people maxed out. The criticism of me is
:22:02. > :22:05.that I am not there enough so whatever good or bad I have done in
:22:06. > :22:09.the European Parliament, financial gain has not been one of the
:22:10. > :22:14.benefits. There have been allegations of you also employing a
:22:15. > :22:21.former mistress on the same European Parliamentary allowance, you deny
:22:22. > :22:25.that? I am very upset with the BBC coverage of this. The ten o'clock
:22:26. > :22:30.news run this as a story without explaining that that allegation was
:22:31. > :22:37.made using Parliamentary privilege by somebody on bail facing serious
:22:38. > :22:46.fraud charges. I thought that was pretty poor. You have a chance to do
:22:47. > :22:50.that and you deny you have employed a former mistress? Yes, but if you
:22:51. > :22:55.look at many of the things said over the last week, I think it is
:22:56. > :22:59.becoming pretty clear to voters that the establishment are becoming
:23:00. > :23:06.terrified of UKIP and they will use anything they can find to do us down
:23:07. > :23:13.in public. Is an MEP employs his wife and his former mistress, that
:23:14. > :23:17.would be resigning matter, wouldn't it? Yes, particularly if the
:23:18. > :23:23.assumption was that money was being taped for work but was not being
:23:24. > :23:31.done. Who do you think is behind these stories? It is all about
:23:32. > :23:35.negative, it is all about attacks, but I don't think it is actually
:23:36. > :23:40.going to work because so much of what has been said in the last week
:23:41. > :23:45.is nonsense. A reputable daily newspaper said I shouldn't be
:23:46. > :23:49.trusted because I had stored six times for the Conservative party, I
:23:50. > :23:55.have never even stored in a local council election. I think if you
:23:56. > :24:03.keep kicking an underdog, it will make the British people rally around
:24:04. > :24:10.us. Is it the Conservatives? Yes, and the idea that all of our voters
:24:11. > :24:20.are retired colonels is simply not true. We get some voters from the
:24:21. > :24:25.Labour side as well. Would you consider standing in a Labour seat
:24:26. > :24:33.if you are so sure you are getting Labour votes? Yes, but the key for
:24:34. > :24:39.UKIP is that it has to be marginal. Just for your own future, if you
:24:40. > :24:45.fail to win a single soul -- single seat in the general election, if Ed
:24:46. > :24:51.Miliband fails to win an outright majority, will you stand down as
:24:52. > :24:57.UKIP leader? I would think within about 12 hours, yes. I will have
:24:58. > :25:01.failed, I got into politics not because I wanted a career in
:25:02. > :25:05.politics, far from it. I did it because I don't think this European
:25:06. > :25:09.entanglement is right for our country. I think a lot of people
:25:10. > :25:13.have woken up to the idea we have lost control of our borders and now
:25:14. > :25:21.is the moment for UKIP to achieve what it set out to do. Will UKIP
:25:22. > :25:26.continue without you if you stand down? Of course it will. I know that
:25:27. > :25:35.everyone says it is a one-man band but it is far from that. We have had
:25:36. > :25:38.some painful moments, getting rid of old UKIP, new UKIP is more
:25:39. > :25:44.professional, less angry and it is going places. Nigel Farage, thank
:25:45. > :25:47.you for being with us. So, what else should we be looking
:25:48. > :25:50.out for in Wednesday's Budget statement? We've compiled a Sunday
:25:51. > :25:52.Politics guide to the Chancellor's likely announcements.
:25:53. > :25:56.Eyes down everyone, it's time for a bit of budget bingo. Let's see what
:25:57. > :25:59.we will get from the man who lives at legs 11. Despite some good news
:26:00. > :26:03.on the economy, George Osborne says that this will be a Budget of hard
:26:04. > :26:06.truths with more pain ahead in order to get the public finances back
:26:07. > :26:08.under control. But many in the Conservative party, including the
:26:09. > :26:11.former chancellor Norman Lamont, want Mr Osborne to help the middle
:26:12. > :26:18.classes by doing something about the 4.4 million people who fall into the
:26:19. > :26:21.40% bracket. Around one million more people pay tax at that rate compared
:26:22. > :26:27.to 2010 because the higher tax threshold hasn't increased in line
:26:28. > :26:29.with inflation. Mr Osborne has indicated he might tackle the issue
:26:30. > :26:36.in the next Conservative manifesto, but for now he is focused on helping
:26:37. > :26:39.the low paid. It's likely we will see another increase in the amount
:26:40. > :26:45.you can earn before being taxed, perhaps up another ?500 to ?10,500.
:26:46. > :26:47.The Chancellor is going to flesh out the details of a tax break for
:26:48. > :26:51.childcare payments, and there could be cries of 'house' with the promise
:26:52. > :27:08.of more help for the building industry. The Help To Buy scheme
:27:09. > :27:11.will be extended to 2020 and there could be the go-ahead for the first
:27:12. > :27:15.Garden City in 40 years. Finally, bingo regulars could be celebrating
:27:16. > :27:17.a full house with a possible cut in bingo tax.
:27:18. > :27:19.And I've been joined in the studio by the former Conservative
:27:20. > :27:22.chancellor Norman Lamont, in Salford by the former Labour Cabinet
:27:23. > :27:25.minister Hazel Blears, and in Aberdeen by the Lib Dem deputy
:27:26. > :27:30.leader, Malcolm Bruce. Let me come to Norman Lamont first, you and
:27:31. > :27:34.another former Tory Chancellor, Nigel Lawson, have called in the
:27:35. > :27:45.fall in the threshold for the rate at which the 40p clicks in. I would
:27:46. > :27:49.have preferred an adjustment in the Budget but I agree with what you are
:27:50. > :27:56.saying, it sounds like the Chancellor will not do that. My main
:27:57. > :28:00.point is that you cannot go on forever and forever increasing the
:28:01. > :28:03.personal allowance and not increasing the 40% tax threshold
:28:04. > :28:08.because you are driving more and more people into that band. It is an
:28:09. > :28:12.expensive policy because in order to keep the number of people not paying
:28:13. > :28:19.tax constant, you have to keep adjusting it each year. When this
:28:20. > :28:25.was introduced by Nigel Lawson, it applied to one in 20 people, the 40%
:28:26. > :28:32.rate, it now applies to one in six people. By next year, there will be
:28:33. > :28:36.6 million people paying base. Why do you think your Tory colleagues seem
:28:37. > :28:51.happy to go along with the Lib Dems and target whatever money there is
:28:52. > :28:56.for tax cuts rather -- on the lower paid rather than the middle incomes?
:28:57. > :29:02.They are not helping the lowest paid. If you wanted to really help
:29:03. > :29:07.the lowest paid people you would raise the threshold for national
:29:08. > :29:12.insurance contributions, which is around ?6,000. Is it the Lib Dems
:29:13. > :29:21.stopping any rise in the 40p threshold? We are concentrating on
:29:22. > :29:30.raising the lower threshold because we believe that is the way to help
:29:31. > :29:33.those on lower incomes. Whilst they haven't benefited as much as the
:29:34. > :29:37.lower paid they have participated and I think people understand right
:29:38. > :29:42.now, if you were going to prioritise the high earners, when we are still
:29:43. > :29:46.trying to help those on lower and middle incomes who haven't enjoyed
:29:47. > :29:50.great pay increases but have got the benefit of these tax increases, that
:29:51. > :29:56.is why we would like to do it for the minimum wage level. But the
:29:57. > :30:03.poorest will not benefit at all. The poorest 16% already don't pay tax.
:30:04. > :30:08.Why don't you increase the threshold at which National Insurance starts?
:30:09. > :30:16.You only have two earned ?5,500 before you start to pay it. You've
:30:17. > :30:19.got to remember that the raising of the threshold to ?10,000 or more was
:30:20. > :30:28.something the Tories said we could not afford. Why are you continuing
:30:29. > :30:31.to do it? If you want to help the working poor, the way would be to
:30:32. > :30:38.take the lowest out of national insurance. The view we take is they
:30:39. > :30:42.are benefiting, and have benefited from, the raising of the tax
:30:43. > :30:47.threshold. You now have to earn ?10,000, we hope eventually 12,500,
:30:48. > :30:51.and that means only people on very low wages. If you opt out of
:30:52. > :30:56.national insurance, you're saying to people that you make no contribution
:30:57. > :31:00.to the welfare system, so there is a general principle that people should
:31:01. > :31:05.participate and paying, and also claim when they need something out.
:31:06. > :31:09.We thought raising the threshold was simple and effective at a time of
:31:10. > :31:15.economic austerity and the right way to deliver a helpful support to
:31:16. > :31:18.welcoming people. -- working people. With the Labour Party continue to
:31:19. > :31:22.raise the threshold, or do they think there is a case that there are
:31:23. > :31:29.too many people being dragged into the 40p tax bracket? If Norman
:31:30. > :31:32.Lamont thinks this is the right time to benefit people who are reasonably
:31:33. > :31:36.well off rather than those who are struggling to make ends meet, then
:31:37. > :31:40.genuinely, I say it respectfully, I don't think he's living in the world
:31:41. > :31:45.the rest of us are. Most working people have seen their wages
:31:46. > :31:49.effectively reduced by about ?1600 because they have been frozen, so
:31:50. > :31:54.the right thing is to help people on modest incomes. I also understand
:31:55. > :31:58.that if the 40% threshold went up, the people who would benefit the
:31:59. > :32:03.most, as ever, are the people who are really well off, not the people
:32:04. > :32:09.in the middle. The Conservatives have already reduced the 50p tax on
:32:10. > :32:12.people over ?150,000 a year, and we have to concentrate on the people
:32:13. > :32:15.going out to work, doing their best to bring their children up and have
:32:16. > :32:20.a decent life and need a bit of help. I think raising the threshold
:32:21. > :32:24.is a good thing. We would bring back the 10p tax, which we should never
:32:25. > :32:29.have abolished, and do things with regard to childcare. At the moment,
:32:30. > :32:34.childcare costs the average family as much as their mortgage, for
:32:35. > :32:37.goodness sake. We would give 25 hours free childcare for youngsters
:32:38. > :32:43.over three and four years old. That would be a massive boost the working
:32:44. > :32:47.families. We are talking about nurses, tube drivers, warrant
:32:48. > :32:51.officers in the army. There are many people who are not well off but have
:32:52. > :32:57.been squeezed in the way everybody has been squeezed and they are
:32:58. > :33:00.finding it continuing. I am stunned by Malcolm's argument where
:33:01. > :33:03.everybody should pay something so you should not take people out of
:33:04. > :33:08.national insurance, but the principle doesn't apply to income
:33:09. > :33:13.tax. You can stand that argument on its head and apply it to income tax.
:33:14. > :33:15.Most people don't see a difference between income tax and national
:33:16. > :33:21.insurance, it's the same thing to most people. It is true that it
:33:22. > :33:24.isn't really an insurance fund and there is an argument from merging
:33:25. > :33:29.both of them. But we have concentrated on a simple tax
:33:30. > :33:36.proposition. Norman is ignoring the fact the people on the 40% rate have
:33:37. > :33:39.benefited by the raising of the personal allowance. To say they have
:33:40. > :33:43.been squeezed is unfair. The calculation is that an ordinary
:33:44. > :33:49.taxpayer will be ?700 better off at the current threshold, and about
:33:50. > :33:52.?500 better off at the higher rate. It is misleading to say the better
:33:53. > :33:58.off we'll be paying more. I agree with Hazel, if you go to the 40%
:33:59. > :34:01.rate, it's the higher earners who benefit the most, and we won't do
:34:02. > :34:07.that when the economy is not where it was before the crash. How much
:34:08. > :34:14.will the lower paid be better off if you reintroduce the 10p rate?
:34:15. > :34:20.Significantly better off. I don't have the figure myself, but they'd
:34:21. > :34:23.be significantly better off and the Budget should be a mixture of
:34:24. > :34:27.measures to help people who work hard. That is why I think the
:34:28. > :34:30.childcare issue has to be addressed. ?100 a week of the people
:34:31. > :34:37.with childcare payments. It is a massive issue. We want the job is
:34:38. > :34:40.guaranteed to get young people back into work. There's been hardly any
:34:41. > :34:44.discussion about that, and we have nearly 1 million people who have
:34:45. > :34:49.been out of work for six months or more, and as a country we need to do
:34:50. > :34:55.something to help that. 350,000 full-time students, so it is a
:34:56. > :34:57.misleading figure. It is not a million including full-time
:34:58. > :35:03.students. All parties do this. It sounds to me, Malcolm Bruce, you
:35:04. > :35:06.have more in common with the Labour Party than you do with the
:35:07. > :35:12.Conservatives. You want an annual levy on houses over ?2 million, so
:35:13. > :35:15.does Labour. A lot of your members want to scrap the so-called bedroom
:35:16. > :35:19.tax and so does labour. You think every teacher should have a teaching
:35:20. > :35:24.qualification, and so does Labour. Your policy on the EU referendum is
:35:25. > :35:29.the same. Let me go on. And you want to scrap the winter fuel allowance
:35:30. > :35:33.for wealthy pensioners. We want to make sure we get the public finances
:35:34. > :35:39.in order and we have grave reservations about the Labour Party
:35:40. > :35:44.promises. But they followed your spending plans in the first year.
:35:45. > :35:46.The point we are making is spending plans in the first year.
:35:47. > :35:50.The point we are making is we can make a fairer society and stronger
:35:51. > :35:52.economy if you keep the public finances moving towards balance. We
:35:53. > :35:56.don't think the Labour Party will take a stand that track. It is
:35:57. > :36:00.interesting that the Labour Party want to introduce the 10p rate that
:36:01. > :36:06.Gordon Brown abolished. We consider that before we can -- committed to
:36:07. > :36:12.the 0% rate -- we considered that. It makes a complicated system
:36:13. > :36:18.difficult and we think it's better doing it that way. As a fiscal
:36:19. > :36:22.conservative, why are you talking about any tax cuts when the deficit
:36:23. > :36:26.is over ?100 billion, and effectively, anything you propose
:36:27. > :36:30.today can only be financed by more borrowing. I totally agree with you.
:36:31. > :36:35.I said that this week. I thought the best thing would have no Budget. The
:36:36. > :36:39.main thing is to get the deficit down. My argument is is that you
:36:40. > :36:41.have an adjustment in tax rates it should be shared between the
:36:42. > :36:48.allowances and the higher rate, but I don't think that the progress on
:36:49. > :36:54.the deficit is something we can give up on. This is still a very long way
:36:55. > :37:00.to go. We're only halfway through. Hazel, does it make sense to borrow
:37:01. > :37:06.for tax cuts? I am reluctant to do this, but I agree with both Norman
:37:07. > :37:11.and Malcolm. Malcolm Bruce wants to borrow for tax cuts. We absolutely
:37:12. > :37:15.need to get the deficit down and get finances on a strong footing. But we
:37:16. > :37:19.also have to think about having some spending in the system that in the
:37:20. > :37:22.longer run saves us money. We all know we need to build new homes. I
:37:23. > :37:28.don't think it's necessarily the right priority to give people in
:37:29. > :37:33.London mortgage relief in terms of ?600,000. We have to get the balance
:37:34. > :37:39.right. Sometimes it is right to spend to save. I'm afraid we have
:37:40. > :37:41.run out of time. There will be plenty more discussion in the lead
:37:42. > :37:46.up to the Budget on Wednesday. It's just gone 11:35am. You're
:37:47. > :37:49.watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who
:37:50. > :37:52.leave us now for Sunday Politics Scotland. Coming up here in 20
:37:53. > :37:54.minutes, Frances O'Grady, the General Secretary of the TUC, joins
:37:55. > :38:09.us discuss Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics
:38:10. > :38:13.in Northern Ireland. Three hundred jobs go at Coleraine's DVA and the
:38:14. > :38:16.DUP accuses Sinn Fein of endangering hundreds more over welfare reform
:38:17. > :38:22.delays. Scare stories or a cause for genuine concern? We talk to the
:38:23. > :38:24.Finance Minister, Simon Hamilton. Described as a political giant, we
:38:25. > :38:30.look back at Tony Benn's involvement in politics here over the years.
:38:31. > :38:31.And with their thoughts on it all, the economist Paul Gosling and
:38:32. > :38:44.academic Pete Shirlow. The loss of some 300 jobs at the
:38:45. > :38:47.Driver and Vehicle Agency could be just the tip of the iceberg if
:38:48. > :38:50.welfare reform is not implemented here, says the DUP. The former
:38:51. > :38:53.Finance Minister, Sammy Wilson, has forecast that 1600 civil servants
:38:54. > :38:56.employed by the Department of Work and Pensions could be in danger of
:38:57. > :39:00.redundancy - but is he being alarmist? With me now is Mr Wilson's
:39:01. > :39:13.successor as Finance Minister, Simon Hamilton. Thank you for joining us.
:39:14. > :39:16.Let's start with the job losses in the DVA. Did the announcement that
:39:17. > :39:20.we were losing 300 jobs - most of them in Coleraine - come as a
:39:21. > :39:27.surprise? We think we knew for a long time that the jobs were under
:39:28. > :39:38.threat. We are mounted a strong case. We knew that the government
:39:39. > :39:42.and Westminster wanted to cut costs. Some of those jobs could have been
:39:43. > :39:46.done in Coleraine and elsewhere in Northern Ireland. We have a good
:39:47. > :39:54.track record of doing work like that. We also do it for benefits and
:39:55. > :39:59.for Social Security as well. You made a robust case, you had a
:40:00. > :40:06.petition of 40,000 signatures objecting to the change. It did not
:40:07. > :40:19.make any difference. I think a good case was made. It was not as a prize
:40:20. > :40:32.that the government were looking at this. It does show that this
:40:33. > :40:39.decision has been not -- has not been taken here but has been taken
:40:40. > :40:42.by Westminster. There will be a ruthlessness if we do not in
:40:43. > :40:49.Northern Ireland do things in welfare reform. The situation could
:40:50. > :40:54.get worse because in a speech on Thursday night, you warrant that the
:40:55. > :41:00.next four years could eclipse the last four years. It is not the sort
:41:01. > :41:05.of message I like to put out there, but I would feel my job if I do not
:41:06. > :41:10.stress that is to be ball. We are getting lots of good evidence that
:41:11. > :41:18.the economy is growing, unemployment is falling, the housing department
:41:19. > :41:26.-- area is going in the right direction as well. We are about
:41:27. > :41:32.halfway down that road of austerity and in Northern Ireland we will feel
:41:33. > :41:36.the impact for the next four years. The Treasury has signalled the 70%
:41:37. > :41:45.of expenditure for the next few years. What could that mean for
:41:46. > :41:50.Northern Ireland? If you look at the projections for 2015-16 where we do
:41:51. > :41:55.have data, we have ?100,000 taken out of our budget. That is coming on
:41:56. > :42:00.the back of all the cuts that we have had to deal over the last
:42:01. > :42:09.couple of years. It presents us with a choice, going for a crude front
:42:10. > :42:15.line cut which can be designed to protect the centre of government we
:42:16. > :42:20.can look at what government does and look at making changes more
:42:21. > :42:27.effectively and efficiently. The government has made a promise to be
:42:28. > :42:31.balanced the economy. If you look at what has happened in that context,
:42:32. > :42:36.then perhaps it is what we would expect. We would expect to see a
:42:37. > :42:41.reduced dependence on public sector employment. We have a large public
:42:42. > :42:46.sector in Northern Ireland. It has been too large for too long. The
:42:47. > :42:53.private sector has to be grown, that is why we are seeing a reduction in
:42:54. > :43:00.corporation tax. It is a challenge looking from where we are coming
:43:01. > :43:05.from. A third of our employment is in the public sector, it is hard to
:43:06. > :43:10.be balanced in terms of the private sector. I am determined that public
:43:11. > :43:17.sector which has provided a cushion of the last couple of years, the
:43:18. > :43:25.private sector has struggled in this country. That can be seen as a drag.
:43:26. > :43:31.If it is reformed, if we can make it improve, it will be a beneficial
:43:32. > :43:41.contribution to the economy. It is pretty bad, Sammy Wilson, your
:43:42. > :43:44.predecessor highlighted the risk. He said 1600 jobs are at risk in the
:43:45. > :43:50.civil service. Do you agree with them? I do agree with him. I have
:43:51. > :43:54.been giving the same message over the last few months. The lack of
:43:55. > :44:03.leadership shown by parties like Sinn Fein are threatening... What
:44:04. > :44:15.about the DUP? We have achieved quite a lot, we have flexibility
:44:16. > :44:23.that would ensure that the bedroom tax does not affect people who are
:44:24. > :44:27.already getting hit by other benefit cuts in Northern Ireland. Sinn Fein
:44:28. > :44:30.and others are refusing to move forward. That is not just
:44:31. > :44:37.threatening further reductions, we have lost ?15 million this year. We
:44:38. > :44:45.will lose more in the next few years and penalties. Around 1500 jobs in
:44:46. > :44:49.Northern Ireland where people are doing Social Security work on behalf
:44:50. > :44:53.of customers in England and Wales could be lost. They are likely to be
:44:54. > :44:59.lost. As we have seen with the DVA this week, why would an English
:45:00. > :45:05.minister want to keep jobs in Northern Ireland. Interesting
:45:06. > :45:13.figures. You have set aside ?50 million for the first penalty. It
:45:14. > :45:23.goes up incrementally, it will increase to 1,000,000,005 years?
:45:24. > :45:33.Yes. -- ?1 billion in five years. In five years it will have gone up.
:45:34. > :45:42.Never mind what the Chancellor will pass on in terms of the cuts across
:45:43. > :45:47.the whole of the UK. These are self-inflicted fines which have been
:45:48. > :45:51.as a result of a lack of leadership from parties like Sinn Fein. It will
:45:52. > :45:56.have a real affect on people on the ground. It will have a devastating
:45:57. > :46:03.effect on public services Northern Ireland. It is not a lack of willing
:46:04. > :46:11.this on my part or members of my party. -- willingness. We have been
:46:12. > :46:19.making this clear to the SDLP, Sinn Fein and others. We cannot afford to
:46:20. > :46:26.take this hit, vulnerable people will suffer because of the impact of
:46:27. > :46:40.this on public service deliveries. Thank you very much. Paul, what do
:46:41. > :46:43.you make of those figures? It demonstrates the difficulty we have
:46:44. > :46:50.with devolution. Theoretically, although we have devolution,
:46:51. > :46:59.politicians have very little choice to implement the vast majority of
:47:00. > :47:04.the welfare reforms. What we need is for the Republicans are nationalists
:47:05. > :47:08.to work together. I think that is what the focus in Northern Ireland
:47:09. > :47:12.will be, not whether one particular party is blocking one particular
:47:13. > :47:22.part of welfare reform. But an ability to work together to better
:47:23. > :47:25.Northern Ireland. Sinn Fein take a very different view and says the
:47:26. > :47:29.other parties are causing the problems. Somebody needs to do
:47:30. > :47:35.something very quickly to sort things out. If there had been a
:47:36. > :47:40.solution at around Richard Haass, these would sort themselves out. We
:47:41. > :47:45.have a political system that is not functioning. The failure to reach an
:47:46. > :48:03.agreement on welfare reforms just a symptom of that. Pete, how do you
:48:04. > :48:10.see it? I think given the complex geography is we have, the impacts of
:48:11. > :48:23.this will be even. It will affect constituents more. The other issue
:48:24. > :48:28.is, what is the response to this in terms of the third sector and how we
:48:29. > :48:34.develop other areas in the public sector so we have more than just the
:48:35. > :48:40.argument about we said no, you said yes. We have seen success in other
:48:41. > :48:45.areas, other parts of Europe where they have looked at different ways
:48:46. > :48:53.to improve the economy. Do you see any sign of political will or desire
:48:54. > :49:06.to make that choice? There is a lack of knowledge just -- not just with
:49:07. > :49:12.politicians. We have not come to terms with our modern default
:49:13. > :49:22.society. Any thoughts on that, Simon? Is there any truth in that
:49:23. > :49:27.politicians have been focused elsewhere. We are putting ourselves
:49:28. > :49:33.at a disadvantage? What you described as the other issues are
:49:34. > :49:39.incredibly important. How they fit into the grand scheme of politics in
:49:40. > :49:46.Northern Ireland. Are they holding us hostage? We have been in Stormont
:49:47. > :49:52.for seven, coming on eight years. We have made progress in bread in the
:49:53. > :50:00.areas. This is not an issue we are facing. Given the issues are steady
:50:01. > :50:05.is giving us, reality is starting to bite. We will have to make difficult
:50:06. > :50:09.decisions, some that we may not like in their entirety but we will have
:50:10. > :50:14.to do something about. What we have done in terms of welfare of, and
:50:15. > :50:18.flexibility is that we have negotiated, shows that we can use
:50:19. > :50:29.devolution to work again some of the worst things we come against from 's
:50:30. > :50:34.-- Westminster. The cost of not receiving and losing ?1 billion will
:50:35. > :50:47.make it incredibly difficult for us to take better decisions on the
:50:48. > :50:52.cuts. This is not the only issue. We need to improve social housing. We
:50:53. > :51:00.have blockages in other areas across the reform. Thank you all very much
:51:01. > :51:03.indeed. St Patrick's Day has turned into St
:51:04. > :51:06.Patrick's 'Week' it seems, especially for politicians from this
:51:07. > :51:08.island who made their annual pilgrimage to Washington for a
:51:09. > :51:11.series of high profile engagements. The Taoiseach met President Obama
:51:12. > :51:14.while the First and Deputy First Ministers met Vice President Biden.
:51:15. > :51:18.The Secretary of State was there too and Martina Purdy asked her if she
:51:19. > :51:21.agrees with Richard Haass's comment that the peace process here might
:51:22. > :51:24.not be quite as robust as people think. No, I think there are in many
:51:25. > :51:27.parts of the world who have looked at the success that has been
:51:28. > :51:32.achieved in Northern Ireland, and wish they could have emulated it. It
:51:33. > :51:37.is difficult to transplant a particular model to other parts of
:51:38. > :51:40.the world. I genuinely think that political readership in Northern
:51:41. > :51:44.Ireland should be proud of what they have achieved. But they also
:51:45. > :51:47.recognise there is more work to be done. That is something that
:51:48. > :51:53.President Clinton emphasised in his visit to Northern Ireland. It is
:51:54. > :52:13.something the Prime Minister recognised. Ensuring that many more
:52:14. > :52:19.children have ways out of their barriers based on religion. What I
:52:20. > :52:25.have been taking to Washington as a message is that this is what has
:52:26. > :52:34.been achieved in Northern Ireland, real progress. A recognition that
:52:35. > :52:42.further work could yield tremendous further benefits and taking Northern
:52:43. > :52:44.Ireland further forward, that is a message that has been
:52:45. > :52:50.sympathetically received by Washington. It seems we are further
:52:51. > :52:56.back than we were a few months ago. What is this that is of the six
:52:57. > :52:59.cases, can you shed any light? The controversy around OTRs and what
:53:00. > :53:05.they have been positive than a setback. There still appears to be a
:53:06. > :53:11.willingness from the party of all political leaders in Northern
:53:12. > :53:18.Ireland to work forward on this. I hope that the OTR crisis will not
:53:19. > :53:23.see the party leaders meetings abandoned altogether. On those
:53:24. > :53:30.excuses, we have set up an enquiry, headed up by one of the most senior
:53:31. > :53:36.and well respected judges in the country. We are determined to
:53:37. > :53:39.provide the facts of how the scheme operated. Including what the current
:53:40. > :53:47.position is in relation to cases which remained under review. -- and
:53:48. > :53:55.on those excuses. Can you tell us that London is not handling those
:53:56. > :53:57.excuses now? No, they are not. The Secretary of State talking to
:53:58. > :54:00.Martina Purdy. His interest in Northern Ireland was
:54:01. > :54:04.long-standing and he helped keep the issue on the Westminster agenda -
:54:05. > :54:07.just one of the many tributes paid to Tony Benn who died on Friday.
:54:08. > :54:10.During his long and sometimes controversial political career, Mr
:54:11. > :54:13.Benn gave support to Sinn Fein and advocated a united Ireland. But
:54:14. > :54:16.despite - or maybe because of that - he opposed the Labour Party formally
:54:17. > :54:21.organising here. Mark Langhammer campaigned for many years to change
:54:22. > :54:25.the policy and is with me now. Welcome to the programme. You knew
:54:26. > :54:31.Tony Benn a little bit, you met him a couple of times. I met him at a
:54:32. > :54:38.conference in Blackpool in a tearoom with a senior education official.
:54:39. > :54:43.Who was from north Belfast and who had access with all of these men. We
:54:44. > :54:48.met in context of the Labour Party policy at the time. It was for unity
:54:49. > :54:52.by consent. It meant that the Labour Party government had the vote. Ed
:54:53. > :55:03.Miliband was governor of Northern Ireland. It was a colonial position.
:55:04. > :55:06.Eamon had spoken with two wings, there was our view that Labour
:55:07. > :55:26.should get in and contest elections. Those with the view that
:55:27. > :55:31.Labour should get out. How did he justify it to you? He topped about
:55:32. > :55:40.socialism and Chrissie. How did he see his position about a democratic
:55:41. > :55:50.one? -- he spoke about socialism and democracy. He was a very humorous
:55:51. > :55:55.man. The one thing about Tony Benn, he was very rooted in the movement.
:55:56. > :56:01.He was really from the Methodist tradition than anything else. His
:56:02. > :56:06.mother had beaten into them, you do all the good you can. He was very
:56:07. > :56:14.unlike the sort of political class of the day. He was a conviction
:56:15. > :56:19.politician, he was quite partisan politician, I think. He was an
:56:20. > :56:24.national figure in the way that nobody else in the Labour Party was.
:56:25. > :56:31.You agreed with them in terms of left right politics. He was a bit of
:56:32. > :56:35.a hero in terms of that. Not really. At the critical time, I think Tony
:56:36. > :56:41.Benn did the wrong thing. What he said that he was a cynical as and he
:56:42. > :56:47.supported as a technology Minister, Meridian. Whenever the Bevan Atlee
:56:48. > :56:53.consensus started to break down in the 70s. It was about full
:56:54. > :56:59.employment, the NHS, putting people first, essentially. At a certain
:57:00. > :57:08.stage the labour movement was working at a surly. -- adversarial
:57:09. > :57:16.way. There was Barbara Kassel and Ted Heath, at a critical time, he
:57:17. > :57:17.voted and went against bullet and industrial democracy and effectively
:57:18. > :57:30.open the door to Thatcherism. -- Bullock. Insofar as that he was
:57:31. > :57:36.able to bring Sinn Fein in from the political called, was his
:57:37. > :57:43.contribution helpful or not? I think it was a good contribution through
:57:44. > :57:46.his diaries. When Callaghan visited Northern Ireland, you will remember
:57:47. > :57:53.that footage of him speaking out of the window, at that stage Callaghan
:57:54. > :57:58.was introduced with the notion that Labour should govern. When it got
:57:59. > :58:01.into the government -- Cabinet meeting, the critical thing was
:58:02. > :58:11.avoiding responsibility. The Foreign Minister said exactly
:58:12. > :58:16.the same thing, keep it arms length. Keep it out there. If you did
:58:17. > :58:20.nothing else, you opened a window on the adverse resolve the middle-class
:58:21. > :58:26.at that time. Let's hear from Paul and Pete.
:58:27. > :58:29.He was to a lot of people and man of principle first and foremost. But
:58:30. > :58:36.still his policies were full of contradictions. There were a whole
:58:37. > :58:39.case of those. His stanza Northern Ireland did change somewhat over
:58:40. > :58:45.time. He called for United stations to come in here. He was when I met
:58:46. > :58:52.once in England many years ago he did have a capacity to learn. He
:58:53. > :58:58.made a speech once that I was that, it was talking about unionists as
:58:59. > :59:03.colonialists. I challenged him on it. I said my family have been in in
:59:04. > :59:11.Northern Ireland and 500 years in which time we have become indigence.
:59:12. > :59:22.He would engage with you, but he would be sharp if he disagreed with
:59:23. > :59:27.you. -- indigenous. We have to remember, an intellectual and
:59:28. > :59:32.capable man. But also had his faults. I met Tony many times. He
:59:33. > :59:36.was a lovely man and should be remembered for his engaging
:59:37. > :59:41.personality, the fact that he brought ideas of democracy and
:59:42. > :59:46.accountability to the forefront and we should remember that way. Let's
:59:47. > :59:54.take a look back at the week in 60 Seconds with Rosy Billingham.
:59:55. > :59:58.We are not going away. A message from victims as a widower accounts
:59:59. > :00:05.to MLAs how she lost her husband. -- a Wood Hill. 17 bullets were put
:00:06. > :00:12.into his back. Richard has had a stark warning for us in Washington.
:00:13. > :00:16.The passage of time will only create an environment and social division
:00:17. > :00:23.will intensify, violence will increase. Jonathan Powell joined the
:00:24. > :00:34.peace process stands by his claim that the DUP knew about OTR course
:00:35. > :00:37.versions. What we want to try and do is have politicians solving some of
:00:38. > :00:42.these problems of the past, not trying to beat each other over the
:00:43. > :00:49.head over it. An enquiry into political interference was resolved.
:00:50. > :00:56.I am chairing this enquiry. You are not sharing it very well.
:00:57. > :01:10.failure marked success. -- not success. Andrew, back to you.
:01:11. > :01:15.Has George Osborne got a rabbit in his Budget hat? Will the Chancellor
:01:16. > :01:16.find a way to help the squeezed middle? And how do Labour respond?
:01:17. > :01:28.All questions for The Week Ahead. And joining Helen, Janan and Nick to
:01:29. > :01:30.discuss the budget is the general secretary of the Trades Union
:01:31. > :01:35.Congress Frances O'Grady. Welcome back to the programme. I know the
:01:36. > :01:38.TUC has a submission, but if you could pick one thing that you wanted
:01:39. > :01:45.the Chancellor to do above all, what would it be? We want a budget for
:01:46. > :01:49.working people, which means we have to crack the long-term problem of
:01:50. > :01:56.investment in the British economy. Certainly I would like the
:01:57. > :02:00.Chancellor to merit that title they want of the new workers party, and
:02:01. > :02:09.take action on living standards, but if they're going to do that it's got
:02:10. > :02:14.to be about unlocking investment. In the period where the economy has
:02:15. > :02:17.been flat-lining there has been little business investment, but
:02:18. > :02:23.there are signs towards the end of last year that it is beginning to
:02:24. > :02:26.pick up. But a long way to go. The problem is we have key industries
:02:27. > :02:31.like construction and manufacturing that are still smaller than they
:02:32. > :02:35.were before the recession. The government itself, of course, has
:02:36. > :02:41.slashed its own capital investment budget by half. There is plenty of
:02:42. > :02:45.good and important work that needs to be done from building houses to
:02:46. > :02:50.improving the transport system, to improving our schools. And the
:02:51. > :02:55.government really needs to pick up that shovel and start investing in
:02:56. > :02:59.our economy to get the decent jobs we need, the pay increases we need,
:03:00. > :03:07.and that in itself will help stimulate demand. It was Alistair
:03:08. > :03:10.Darling who cut in 2011, and it's interesting that Ed Balls in his
:03:11. > :03:14.plans for the next parliament would run a current budget surplus by the
:03:15. > :03:18.end of the parliament as opposed to George Osborne who would have an
:03:19. > :03:23.overall budget surplus. That gives Ed Balls or -- more wriggle room to
:03:24. > :03:27.do what you talk about, but he is reticent to talk about it. He does
:03:28. > :03:30.not want to say that he has an opportunity to spend on investment
:03:31. > :03:32.because he fears if he says it he will be attacked by the
:03:33. > :03:40.Conservatives for being irresponsible. Why is business doing
:03:41. > :03:43.this? The recession was deeper than any since the war and the recovery
:03:44. > :03:49.was slower than almost any since the war. The lag, the time it takes to
:03:50. > :03:56.get over that is longer than anyone expected. I read the same evidence
:03:57. > :03:58.as you towards the end of last year pointing to money being released,
:03:59. > :04:03.and it depends what it is released on, whether it is capital investment
:04:04. > :04:07.or bringing in people on higher wages. The one surprise in the
:04:08. > :04:12.downturn is how well the employment figures have done, but they have not
:04:13. > :04:15.invested in new capacity and they are sitting on a lot of dosh. I
:04:16. > :04:22.looked at one set of figures that said if you took the biggest company
:04:23. > :04:25.in Britain, they have about 715 billion pounds in corporate treasury
:04:26. > :04:32.-- the biggest companies. I think it's reduced a little but they are
:04:33. > :04:36.sitting on a mountain in dash of skills. Yes, but they're not
:04:37. > :04:40.investing in skills, wages, or sustainable jobs. The new jobs we
:04:41. > :04:47.have seen created since 2010, the vast majority of them have been in
:04:48. > :04:51.low paid industries, and they are often zero hours, or insecure, or
:04:52. > :04:56.part-time. So it's not delivering a recovery for ordinary working
:04:57. > :04:59.people. Government ministers, as you know when you lobby them, they are
:05:00. > :05:05.anxious to make out that they know the job is not done and the recovery
:05:06. > :05:09.has just begun, but the one bit they are privately proud of, although
:05:10. > :05:14.they can't explain it, is how many private-sector jobs have been
:05:15. > :05:17.created. A lot of unions have done sensible deals with employers to
:05:18. > :05:22.protect jobs through this period, but it's not sustainable. The
:05:23. > :05:28.average worker in Britain today is now ?2000 a year worse off in real
:05:29. > :05:36.terms than they were. On a pay against price comparison? It doesn't
:05:37. > :05:45.take into account tax cuts. The raising of the personal allowance is
:05:46. > :05:48.far outweighed by the raising VAT. Does the raising of the threshold
:05:49. > :05:51.which the Lib Dems are proud of and the Tories are trying to trade
:05:52. > :05:57.credit for, does it matter to your members? -- take credit for. It
:05:58. > :06:01.matters that it is eclipsed by the cuts in benefits and know what is
:06:02. > :06:05.conned any more. We're going to hear a lot about the raising of the
:06:06. > :06:11.allowance, but as long as the real value of work, tax credits, things
:06:12. > :06:14.like that, people won't feel it in their pocket, and they will find it
:06:15. > :06:17.harder and harder to look after their family. When you look at the
:06:18. > :06:22.other things that could take over from consumer spending which has
:06:23. > :06:25.driven the recovery, held by house price rising in the south, it is
:06:26. > :06:28.exports and business investment, and you look at the state of the
:06:29. > :06:33.Eurozone and the emerging markets which are now in trouble, and the
:06:34. > :06:38.winter seems to have derailed the US recovery. It won't be exports.
:06:39. > :06:46.Indeed, the Obie Eich does not think that will contribute to growth until
:06:47. > :06:52.2015 -- OBI. So the figures we should be looking at our business
:06:53. > :06:56.investment. And also the deficit. The deficit is 111 billion, and that
:06:57. > :07:01.is a problem, because we are not at the end of the cutting process,
:07:02. > :07:05.there are huge cuts to be made. I understand we are only a third of
:07:06. > :07:09.the way through. That will definitely affect business
:07:10. > :07:12.confidence. It is clear that the strategy has failed. Borrowing has
:07:13. > :07:16.gone up and it's not delivered improved living standards and better
:07:17. > :07:22.quality jobs, so cutting out of the recession is not going to work. The
:07:23. > :07:28.structural budget deficit was going to be eliminated three weeks today
:07:29. > :07:33.under the original plan. They missed target after target. Every economist
:07:34. > :07:37.has their own definition of that. I think Mark Carney is right when he
:07:38. > :07:41.says that fundamentally the economy is unbalanced and it is not
:07:42. > :07:49.sustainable, growth is not sustainable. But if it clicked on,
:07:50. > :07:52.it would be more balanced. It is not just north and south and
:07:53. > :07:58.manufacturing a way out with services, but it is also between the
:07:59. > :08:01.rich and everybody else. What do you make of the fact that there will
:08:02. > :08:07.effectively be another freezing public sector pay, or at least no
:08:08. > :08:14.more than 1%? Not even that for nurses and health workers. But they
:08:15. > :08:18.will get 3% progression pay. 70% of nurses will not get any pay rise at
:08:19. > :08:24.all. They get no progression pay at all. I think this is smack in the
:08:25. > :08:28.mouth. Smack in the mouth to dedicated health care workers who
:08:29. > :08:34.will feel very, very discontented about the decision. Danny
:08:35. > :08:38.Alexander, I saw him appealing to health workers do not move to strike
:08:39. > :08:44.ballots and said they should talk to their department. But about what? Is
:08:45. > :08:50.that real pay cut has been imposed, what are workers left with? So do
:08:51. > :08:57.you expect as a result of yet more tough controls on public sector pay
:08:58. > :09:01.that unrest is inevitable? I know some unions will be consulting with
:09:02. > :09:06.their members, but ultimately it's always members who decide what to
:09:07. > :09:11.do. It does seem to me insulting not to at least be honest and say that
:09:12. > :09:18.we are cutting real pay of nurses, health care workers, on the back of
:09:19. > :09:24.a ?3 billion reorganisation of the NHS that nobody wanted and nobody
:09:25. > :09:29.voted for. Their long-term changes taking place here that almost talks
:09:30. > :09:37.about -- there are long-term changes. It is how lower percentage
:09:38. > :09:40.wages have become of GDP on how big the percentage of profits is. It
:09:41. > :09:46.seems to me there is a strong case for some kind of realignment there.
:09:47. > :09:50.The biggest event of my life, in this world, is the entry of a couple
:09:51. > :09:54.of billion more people into the labour supply. At the end of the
:09:55. > :09:58.Cold War, India and China plugged into the global economy. If there is
:09:59. > :10:01.a greater supply of that factor of production, logically you conclude
:10:02. > :10:06.that wages will fall or stagnate and that has been the story in this
:10:07. > :10:09.country and America and large parts of Western Europe in the last
:10:10. > :10:14.generation. What is not possible is for governments to do much about
:10:15. > :10:16.it. They can ameliorate it at the margins, but the idea that the
:10:17. > :10:20.government controls living standards, which has become popular
:10:21. > :10:25.over the last six months, and the Labour Party have in establishing
:10:26. > :10:29.that, and I don't think it's true. George Osborne's options are
:10:30. > :10:35.astonishingly limited compared to public expectations. If wages have
:10:36. > :10:40.reached a modern record low as percentage of GDP, who is going to
:10:41. > :10:46.champion the wage earner? We have lost Bob Crow, Tony Benn passed
:10:47. > :10:51.away, so who is the champion? The trade union movement is the champion
:10:52. > :10:57.of ordinary workers. We need those larger-than-life figures that we
:10:58. > :11:01.will mess. Have you got them yet? We have a generation of workers coming
:11:02. > :11:05.through. One thing about the loss of Bob Crow is that the whole union
:11:06. > :11:09.movement has responded strongly to that, and we want to say that we are
:11:10. > :11:14.strong and united and here to stand up for working people and we will
:11:15. > :11:18.fight as hard as Bob Crow did. Whoever replaces Bob Crow or Tony
:11:19. > :11:22.Benn, we can be sure they will not come from Eton because they all have
:11:23. > :11:25.jobs in the government. I want to put up on the screen what even
:11:26. > :11:35.Michael Gove was saying about this coterie of Old Etonian 's.
:11:36. > :11:44.He's right, is he not? He's absolutely right. We have the idea
:11:45. > :11:50.of the manifesto being written by five people from Eton and one from
:11:51. > :11:54.Saint Pauls. A remarkable example of social mobility that George Osborne,
:11:55. > :11:59.who had the disadvantage of going to Saint Pauls has made it into that
:12:00. > :12:04.inner circle. Here is the question, what is Michael Gove up to? If you
:12:05. > :12:08.saw the response from George Osborne, there was no slap down, and
:12:09. > :12:11.they know this is an area they are weak on an David Cameron will not
:12:12. > :12:15.comment on it. If this had been a Labour shadow minister making a
:12:16. > :12:20.similarly disloyal statement, they might have been shot at dawn. But
:12:21. > :12:25.there is a real tolerance from Michael Gove to go freelance which
:12:26. > :12:27.comes from George Osborne. It's about highlighting educational
:12:28. > :12:31.reforms that he wants to turn every school in to eat and so it won't
:12:32. > :12:35.happen in the future. But it's also pointing out who did not go to Eton
:12:36. > :12:38.school and who would be the best candidate to replace David Cameron
:12:39. > :12:42.as leader, George Osborne, and who did go to Eton school, Boris
:12:43. > :12:50.Johnson. Michael Gove is on manoeuvres to destroy Boris
:12:51. > :12:54.Johnson's chances of being leader. It's a good job they don't have an
:12:55. > :12:59.election to worry about. Hold on. I think they are out of touch with
:13:00. > :13:04.businesses as well as working people. You ask about who is talking
:13:05. > :13:06.about wage earners. Businesses are. They are worried that unless living
:13:07. > :13:12.standards rise again there will be nobody there to buy anything. We are
:13:13. > :13:18.running out of time, but the TUC, are enthusiastic about HS2? We
:13:19. > :13:23.supported. We think it's the kind of infrastructure project that we need
:13:24. > :13:27.to invest in long-term. He could, if we get it right, rebalance north and
:13:28. > :13:34.south and create good jobs along the way -- it could. Thank you very much
:13:35. > :13:38.tool. I have to say that every week -- thank you very much to you all.
:13:39. > :13:41.That's all for today. I'll be back next Sunday at 11am, and Jo Coburn
:13:42. > :13:46.will be on BBC Two tomorrow at midday with the Daily Politics.
:13:47. > :13:49.Remember if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.