:00:38. > :00:43.David Cameron thinks we'll be stronger, safer
:00:44. > :00:48.Leave campaigners say the real risk would be a vote to remain.
:00:49. > :00:52.So what are the dangers if we decide to stay?
:00:53. > :00:56.On his final presidential visit to the UK, Barack Obama
:00:57. > :00:59.will back the idea of Britain remaining in the EU.
:01:00. > :01:03.But is the leader of the free world right to wade into our debate?
:01:04. > :01:06.And before the referendum, there's the small matter
:01:07. > :01:11.of national and local elections right across the UK.
:01:12. > :01:13.And on Sunday Politics here, the SDLP's Dolores Kelly
:01:14. > :01:16.tells us why her party deserves your support in May.
:01:17. > :01:18.Plus, they've been called the unofficial opposition -
:01:19. > :01:21.we hear from the three smaller Assembly parties.
:01:22. > :01:24.In London, with less than three weeks to go to polling day,
:01:25. > :01:26.we hear from mayoral hopefuls Sian Berry of the Greens
:01:27. > :01:34.And with me, as always, our panel of the best and brightest
:01:35. > :01:36.political brains in the business, Nick Watt, Isabel Oakeshott
:01:37. > :01:47.Now, the referendum isn't the only vote looming on the horizon.
:01:48. > :01:51.Before the EU vote on June 23rd, voters across the UK will get
:01:52. > :01:53.a chance to cast their ballot in a range of elections
:01:54. > :01:57.There are seven sets of elections happening in May,
:01:58. > :02:00.all of which will take place on the same day,
:02:01. > :02:04.Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland will hold national elections.
:02:05. > :02:08.There are 60 seats up for grabs in the Welsh Assembly.
:02:09. > :02:11.The Scottish Parliament, in which the SNP has held
:02:12. > :02:16.a majority since 2011, will elect 129 members,
:02:17. > :02:19.and in Northern Ireland, there are 108 seats that will be
:02:20. > :02:23.decided for representatives to the assembly at Stormont.
:02:24. > :02:26.Across England there are local government elections.
:02:27. > :02:30.124 councils have seats up for election.
:02:31. > :02:32.35 metropolitan councils, 19 unitary authorities
:02:33. > :02:35.and 70 district councils, and four cities in England
:02:36. > :02:59.will elect mayors, London, Bristol, Liverpool and Salford.
:03:00. > :03:01.Londoners will also elect members to the London Assembly
:03:02. > :03:04.Finally, voters in 41 police force areas in England and Wales
:03:05. > :03:06.will elect a Police And Crime Commissioner.
:03:07. > :03:08.Joining me now from Glasgow is our election guru,
:03:09. > :03:09.Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University.
:03:10. > :03:13.Let's start with the local elections in England. How should we judge the
:03:14. > :03:18.performance of Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party in these elections? We
:03:19. > :03:25.have to appreciate that the seats up for grabs on me the these elections
:03:26. > :03:31.were for the most part fought for three year is ago. We are looking at
:03:32. > :03:34.the time of George Osborne's so-called a shambles budget when
:03:35. > :03:39.support for the Conservatives fell away. These were the only set of
:03:40. > :03:42.elections during the last parliament where the Labour Party began to put
:03:43. > :03:45.in a performance where you might have thought they would have been
:03:46. > :03:51.capable of winning the next election. Jeremy Corbyn's
:03:52. > :03:56.misfortune, he is defending not a brilliant baseline, but a relatively
:03:57. > :04:01.good one. Labour six or seven points ahead, as judged by their share of
:04:02. > :04:06.the vote. The truth is that Jeremy Corbyn is not 67 points ahead. In
:04:07. > :04:12.contrast to what we might have expected a few weeks ago, he is no
:04:13. > :04:16.longer 67 points behind. Labour and the Conservatives seem to be quite
:04:17. > :04:22.close to each other. That means that in practice Mr Corbyn may well be
:04:23. > :04:26.facing losses. The figure of 150 has been bandied around. Will that be
:04:27. > :04:32.good? Better than it might have been a few weeks ago. Is it the sort of
:04:33. > :04:38.performance to persuade you that the Labour Party is on course to win the
:04:39. > :04:43.general election? Certainly not. Is the biggest threat that they would
:04:44. > :04:47.lose London, and would that be unlikely? I agree it would be
:04:48. > :04:52.unlikely. If they were to fail to win the London mayoral election,
:04:53. > :04:59.that would be a serious reverse for Labour. Back in 2012, although Boris
:05:00. > :05:04.Johnson on the London mayoral election, Labour was clearly ahead
:05:05. > :05:10.in the parallel election. Neither Sadiq Khan, the Labour candidate,
:05:11. > :05:16.Northside Goldsmith, the concerted of the -- the Conservative
:05:17. > :05:18.candidate, has the same kind of attractiveness to the public. Labour
:05:19. > :05:25.did relatively well in London 12 months ago. If David Cameron were
:05:26. > :05:34.not to win that election, Labour would have questions to ask itself.
:05:35. > :05:39.Could Labour even come third behind the Scottish Tories? The answer is
:05:40. > :05:42.that they could. There is another opinion poll lead this morning that
:05:43. > :05:49.put Labour on the Conservatives neck and neck with each other. Some
:05:50. > :05:53.opinion polls put Labour and the Conservatives together, but not by
:05:54. > :05:58.much. Labour neglect the heading for a very bad performance. It would be
:05:59. > :06:03.the worst result in any election since 1918. I do not think it will
:06:04. > :06:06.tell you much about Jeremy Corbyn and his popularity. We have to
:06:07. > :06:09.remember that what happens in Scotland is very distinct and
:06:10. > :06:14.separate from what happens in the rest of the UK. The election in
:06:15. > :06:20.Scotland is going to be, primarily, framed by people's views about
:06:21. > :06:25.independence. The truth is the overall majority of people that
:06:26. > :06:28.voted for independence are still determined to vote for the SNP. So
:06:29. > :06:33.long as that remains the case, Labour will struggle another the
:06:34. > :06:36.border. It has to do with Scottish politics and little to do with what
:06:37. > :06:42.is happening in the rest of the UK. Is there really a Ukip surge in
:06:43. > :06:47.Wales? The opinion polls suggest that Ukip are doing well in Wales.
:06:48. > :06:52.But that is roughly where the opinion polls are putting Ukip
:06:53. > :06:56.across the UK as a whole. In Wales, as in Scotland, and the London
:06:57. > :07:04.assembly elections, the elections are being held by proportional
:07:05. > :07:07.representation, not first past the post, so if Ukip can get the 15%
:07:08. > :07:09.that the opinion polls suggest that the might get, they will get
:07:10. > :07:13.significant representation in the Welsh assembly. Getting Ukip grade
:07:14. > :07:18.is one of the things in which the opinion polls tend to disagree with
:07:19. > :07:22.each other. Ukip will perhaps not do as well as that, they will get some
:07:23. > :07:29.seats, but perhaps not as well as the parties hoping. Northern
:07:30. > :07:34.Ireland, and the executive almost collapsed there last year. Will the
:07:35. > :07:39.turmoil at Stormont, is it likely expected to change people's voting
:07:40. > :07:45.patterns this time? We not expecting a vast in Northern Ireland. Not only
:07:46. > :07:54.is the assembly elected proportionally, but so is the
:07:55. > :07:57.elected -- the executive. The larger of the two Unionist parties and the
:07:58. > :08:01.Nationalist parties might not be quite as strong as last time. No one
:08:02. > :08:06.is expecting very much in way of a major change. Thank you for joining
:08:07. > :08:11.us. Nick Watt, let me come to you. These elections are widely being
:08:12. > :08:16.seen as Mr Corbyn's first serious test. What a Labour's real
:08:17. > :08:22.expectations? The expectation is there going to do badly in Scotland.
:08:23. > :08:26.That is in. They will do badly in Wales but the expecting that. They
:08:27. > :08:30.will not admit that they could do very badly in the English local
:08:31. > :08:34.elections, and that they could lose seats. If the Labour Party lost
:08:35. > :08:38.seats in the local elections, it would be the first time since 1985
:08:39. > :08:43.that an opposition party had suffered losses in local elections
:08:44. > :08:49.in a non-general election year. It would be woolly bad. What did is
:08:50. > :08:53.down two at the end of the day, I know we should not wish think about
:08:54. > :08:58.London, a great picture of Glasgow behind John Curtice, but it is down
:08:59. > :09:03.to London. Jeremy Corbyn needs one victory and he looks like he will
:09:04. > :09:08.get one, Sadiq Khan in London. That will probably enough. He can do
:09:09. > :09:14.badly everywhere else but as long as he holds onto London years save? I
:09:15. > :09:19.think because the others are just priced in. If he can be seen to
:09:20. > :09:23.notch up one victory, it is a bit like the old and Royston by-election
:09:24. > :09:29.at the end of last year. Everyone assumes that they will do badly.
:09:30. > :09:32.They did well, it stabilises the leadership. He would probably be
:09:33. > :09:37.safe even if you lost London? I think he would be. Those who would
:09:38. > :09:39.like to see the back of have the difficulty that essentially his
:09:40. > :09:44.supporters control the party membership. It is an interesting
:09:45. > :09:49.question, how this is going to be judged. I spoke to one of Jeremy
:09:50. > :09:53.Corbyn's critics within the parliamentary party this morning and
:09:54. > :09:58.was surprised how upbeat he sounded. He said, I think we might put on a
:09:59. > :10:03.couple of hundred seats. This is a terrible time for the Tory
:10:04. > :10:08.leadership. I came off the phone and thought, this is about expectation
:10:09. > :10:13.management. This is the critics of Jeremy Corbyn saying that we should
:10:14. > :10:17.put on a few hundred seats. When they do not, they will see it as a
:10:18. > :10:22.disaster. The setting him up to fail. The Tories are expected to do
:10:23. > :10:27.quite well in these elections, even in Wales. We have had the budget,
:10:28. > :10:31.the Panama Papers, the steel crisis, the split over the referendum. It
:10:32. > :10:38.has got to take its toll on the Tories? It has in the opinion polls,
:10:39. > :10:43.which are Sean at the minimum of the Tory lead, narrowing, and in some
:10:44. > :10:48.cases Labour pulling ahead. I suspect some Tories would not mind
:10:49. > :10:52.doing badly in the local elections in England if it relieves the
:10:53. > :10:56.pressure on Jeremy Corbyn, who they want in place over the next four
:10:57. > :11:02.years and contesting the 2020 general election. Even if Labour do
:11:03. > :11:08.badly in Scotland, Jeremy Corbyn owes a debt to Sadiq Khan, because
:11:09. > :11:12.his likely but not certain victory in London, judging by the opinion
:11:13. > :11:16.polls, will attract more attention than elections everywhere, not
:11:17. > :11:23.before it deserves -- not because it deserves to, but because the media
:11:24. > :11:26.has a slight skew towards London. It is a slightly sexier office. It will
:11:27. > :11:31.drown out any underperformance that Labour have in the rest of the
:11:32. > :11:35.country. Is it too cynical to say that some Tories will not be too
:11:36. > :11:40.upset if they do not win London because Mr Corbyn will then be
:11:41. > :11:46.secure? I do not think that is cynical. That is absolutely the
:11:47. > :11:52.case. Janan is right. There will be lots of post-analysis about how the
:11:53. > :11:55.billionaire's son, Zac Goldsmith, lost the election. It is interesting
:11:56. > :11:59.that the people who want to get rid of Jeremy Corbyn in the Labour
:12:00. > :12:03.Party, the window they are talking about is not after the local
:12:04. > :12:07.elections, but after the referendum at the end of June. We might be
:12:08. > :12:08.focused on the Conservatives by then. I think the troubles of the
:12:09. > :12:16.Tory party will take the focus then. So the referendum
:12:17. > :12:17.campaign has begun. The official campaign groups have
:12:18. > :12:19.been designated and the arguments The Prime Minister says we'll be
:12:20. > :12:24.stronger, safer, and better off in. And a vote to leave,
:12:25. > :12:26.says to Mr Cameron, But it won't have escaped your
:12:27. > :12:32.attention that the EU is also facing challenges,
:12:33. > :12:35.a migration crisis, economic So, if we do decide to remain,
:12:36. > :12:41.what are the risks ahead of us? For some, the consequences of this
:12:42. > :12:52.EU referendum are crystal clear. For the rest of us,
:12:53. > :12:55.it is difficult to see the future after June the 23rd,
:12:56. > :12:57.hard to predict. Of course, the politicians claim
:12:58. > :13:02.to know our fortunes. This cannot be described as anything
:13:03. > :13:04.other than risk, uncertainty, We have clearly elevated Brexit
:13:05. > :13:15.as one of the serious downside risks I firmly believe that leaving the EU
:13:16. > :13:21.would leave our country less secure. This lot, Vote Leave,
:13:22. > :13:24.call it Project Fear. They say the other side is trying
:13:25. > :13:27.to scare people into thinking that Instead they say that
:13:28. > :13:32.the uncertainty is staying in. What will the EU look like in five,
:13:33. > :13:39.ten, 15 years? For me, it would be an outdated
:13:40. > :13:41.bloc, something that was created in the last century,
:13:42. > :13:45.something that can neither control It has been foretold that migration
:13:46. > :13:52.will be one of the dominant David Cameron insists his negotiated
:13:53. > :14:00.emergency brake on migrants' in work benefits as well as changes to child
:14:01. > :14:02.benefits will discourage EU migration, but some experts say it
:14:03. > :14:08.will have little impact. Figures from the Migration
:14:09. > :14:12.Observatory this week suggest that continuing economic instability
:14:13. > :14:16.in the Eurozone is encouraging an increasing number of southern
:14:17. > :14:19.European migrants to head to the UK Looking forward, it is very
:14:20. > :14:23.difficult to know It is possible that if the gap
:14:24. > :14:28.in economic performance between the UK and other
:14:29. > :14:30.countries, for example, Italy, Portugal and Spain,
:14:31. > :14:34.remains significant, there could be quite a pull factor
:14:35. > :14:37.for some time. It is also possible if there is more
:14:38. > :14:40.economic convergence that we could see the numbers
:14:41. > :14:42.start to fall. Much has also been made this week
:14:43. > :14:47.about the risk to both the British and the global economy if Britain
:14:48. > :14:49.voted to leave the EU, In the single market we trade freely
:14:50. > :14:54.right across Europe and we have a say in making
:14:55. > :14:57.the rules across the Continent. If we leave, we give
:14:58. > :15:00.all of that up with no idea The real economic risks are for
:15:01. > :15:06.staying in the European Union. We might find ourselves on the hook
:15:07. > :15:11.for bailouts for countries that are having difficulty staying
:15:12. > :15:14.in the euro in the future. We might find that our rebate comes
:15:15. > :15:18.under assault in the future, we might find that the amount
:15:19. > :15:21.of money overall that we have to give the European Union
:15:22. > :15:25.goes up and up and up. A few weeks ago, the Governor
:15:26. > :15:28.of the Bank of England said that leaving the EU was the biggest
:15:29. > :15:30.domestic risk to Membership of the European Union
:15:31. > :15:35.brings risks as well, and the principal risk,
:15:36. > :15:37.risks I should say, because there are more than one,
:15:38. > :15:40.are associated with the unfinished On the issue of whether our laws
:15:41. > :15:52.are made in Westminster or Brussels, for those wanting to leave the EU,
:15:53. > :15:55.a vote to remain would mean handing Fewer and fewer things over
:15:56. > :15:59.which we have the authority Fewer and fewer of our decisions can
:16:00. > :16:02.be upheld in British courts And I also know that fewer and fewer
:16:03. > :16:12.decisions will be made on European Union level
:16:13. > :16:16.which will be in British interests. And yet one former minister told me
:16:17. > :16:18.that pooling some decision-making The truth is that if you enter
:16:19. > :16:25.into any international agreement, then you may agree that those
:16:26. > :16:27.decisions should be Our Nato membership involves exactly
:16:28. > :16:31.the same kind of arrangement. We allow Nato to take a decision
:16:32. > :16:34.for our collective strength. Both sides seemed to agree a vote
:16:35. > :16:48.to remain is not a vote Those who want to stay
:16:49. > :16:53.in are confident, at least publicly, that the renegotiation will change
:16:54. > :16:56.for the better our relationship Those who want out say that
:16:57. > :17:00.relationship will only get worse. Quite how persuasive
:17:01. > :17:02.those two visions are, I predict we will find out
:17:03. > :17:13.on June the 24th. Joining me now is Labour MP
:17:14. > :17:16.Tristram Hunt, he was a member of the Shadow Cabinet
:17:17. > :17:18.under Ed Miliband. He is now campaigning for Britain
:17:19. > :17:29.to remain in the EU. Do you accept, let's look at some of
:17:30. > :17:32.the risks that could be associated with remaining, start with
:17:33. > :17:36.immigration. Do you accept that as long as we remain in the EU we have
:17:37. > :17:41.no real control of the numbers coming to our country? The European
:17:42. > :17:46.Union is not perfect and it is quite right to have this debate about how
:17:47. > :17:52.we reform Europe in the future. When it comes to our borders, we check
:17:53. > :17:56.who comes in. There will remain passport controls but we have to
:17:57. > :17:59.make sure that we explain to people that if we left Europe but still
:18:00. > :18:05.wanted to trade with the single market, we would also have to have
:18:06. > :18:08.the free movement of people just as Norway and Switzerland does. But in
:18:09. > :18:11.the long run I think there is an interesting question about the
:18:12. > :18:16.degree of free movement of people across the European Union. My point
:18:17. > :18:20.is that Britain should be a part of that conversation. We should be
:18:21. > :18:24.involved in that reform and change and if we are not at the table than
:18:25. > :18:28.our voice won't be heard. The numbers would seem to be beyond our
:18:29. > :18:32.control because that's the price of membership. Over the past five years
:18:33. > :18:39.the number of EU nationals living in the UK has risen by 700,000, it is
:18:40. > :18:56.now 3.3 million, it has doubled in ten years. As long as we remain in
:18:57. > :19:00.the EU it is surely a risk that at least another 700,000 could come in
:19:01. > :19:04.the next five years, it could be even more. Or it could be markedly
:19:05. > :19:06.less. If we go back to a time when the British economy was worse in the
:19:07. > :19:09.1980s, we saw large numbers of people going abroad to work in the
:19:10. > :19:11.European Union. We are taking a snapshot at the moment and the point
:19:12. > :19:14.about pooling risk across the single market is that when your economy is
:19:15. > :19:16.in difficulty you can take opportunities in other parts of the
:19:17. > :19:21.country. In the UK we should be supporting reforms to make sure
:19:22. > :19:25.there are not benefit attractions to coming to the UK so I think the
:19:26. > :19:30.Prime Minister's point about having to pay in before you take out, the
:19:31. > :19:33.point about fairness is really important and I think people in
:19:34. > :19:37.Britain think that if people are coming here to work, to pay their
:19:38. > :19:43.taxes and contribute to society, that is fine. You say it's a
:19:44. > :19:48.snapshot but let's look at this chart. Over the last five years, as
:19:49. > :19:54.you can see from that, from about 2012, under five years in fact,
:19:55. > :20:02.these are the absolute number, immigration from the EU has risen
:20:03. > :20:06.dramatically. My point is it is not a snapshot, it is a clear trend. The
:20:07. > :20:14.part of immigration over which we have no control is rising the
:20:15. > :20:18.fastest, isn't that a risk? But we go back to 1975 so historically this
:20:19. > :20:24.is a snapshot, and overtime this well change. We cannot have a system
:20:25. > :20:28.whereby you turn up in the UK and claim benefits from day one. You
:20:29. > :20:35.have to have a contributory principle. Also, those parts of the
:20:36. > :20:38.country, Boston in Lincolnshire, parts that have experienced high
:20:39. > :20:43.levels of immigration and we should be open and honest about this that
:20:44. > :20:47.we have seen statistics show big changes and may have impacted
:20:48. > :20:50.communities in big ways sometimes, they need the extra resource for
:20:51. > :20:57.schools and hospitals that this brings in. The case I'm putting to
:20:58. > :21:01.you this morning is that that is not necessarily a snapshot or that it
:21:02. > :21:06.will necessarily change. Let's look at the risks we would face in the
:21:07. > :21:10.years to come. Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor, decided that last
:21:11. > :21:14.year over a million Syrian immigrants could go to Germany.
:21:15. > :21:21.Eventually they could come here if they wish. Why should we be at the
:21:22. > :21:25.risk of unilateral decisions taken by a foreign leader? Obviously there
:21:26. > :21:31.are issues about residency rights in Germany or Italy before anyone could
:21:32. > :21:34.come to the UK. We retain border controls. If they become German
:21:35. > :21:40.citizens they will be allowed to come here. This is a balance of
:21:41. > :21:47.risks, on June the 23rd of voters have to weigh up these may bes. What
:21:48. > :21:51.we have heard clearly from the governor of the Bank of England, the
:21:52. > :21:54.Chancellor of the Exchequer, the head of the IMF, that there will be
:21:55. > :22:00.a seismic economic shock to the British economy. I understand that
:22:01. > :22:05.and there has been plenty of coverage of the risks of coming out,
:22:06. > :22:09.but I'm looking at the risks of staying in. Let me give you another
:22:10. > :22:17.one, I've given you the Angela Merkel example. Albania, Turkey and
:22:18. > :22:22.others all want to join the EU. More people that could have a right to
:22:23. > :22:27.come and live and work in the UK. That is a risk. We are already
:22:28. > :22:30.seeing the risk of Brexit. The pound is falling in value, economic
:22:31. > :22:37.decisions are not being taken at the moment. I'm not arguing that there
:22:38. > :22:41.are risks to coming out, I perfectly understand that. I'm looking at the
:22:42. > :22:46.risks if we stay in. Address this issue that the risk is of another 87
:22:47. > :22:59.more people with the right to come to Britain. My point is the risks
:23:00. > :23:03.are happening now,... What is your answer to the 87 million? The
:23:04. > :23:07.extension of Europe has to be managed carefully. The broader
:23:08. > :23:09.conversation about the total free movement of people across the
:23:10. > :23:14.European Union is something that needs to be addressed but firstly we
:23:15. > :23:19.won't have any say over that if we have left the European Union.
:23:20. > :23:24.Secondly, those countries which trade with Europe like Norway and
:23:25. > :23:29.Switzerland also have to accept the free movement of people. There's no
:23:30. > :23:33.free ticket on this. What I want is a strong Great Britain at the
:23:34. > :23:37.negotiating table making the case for our borders and security. When
:23:38. > :23:41.it comes to the free movement of people you raised the issue of
:23:42. > :23:45.Syrian refugees and concerns about security in the aftermath of
:23:46. > :23:51.Brussels and Paris, being part of Europe and having security
:23:52. > :23:56.connections with Europe makes us stronger. There's talk of another
:23:57. > :24:00.Greek financial bailout, fears of an Italian banking crisis looming this
:24:01. > :24:03.summer. If the eurozone plunges into another recession, the numbers
:24:04. > :24:12.coming here could easily hit new record highs. We have also seen we
:24:13. > :24:17.are not part of the Europe... They will come here looking for jobs. We
:24:18. > :24:24.are not on the hook for the Greek bailout. We were with the last one.
:24:25. > :24:28.Not to the same degree as other European members. We negotiated a
:24:29. > :24:33.strong exemption from that. This is about Britain having a strong voice
:24:34. > :24:40.at the negotiating table and you are offering up your own Project Fear. I
:24:41. > :24:46.am taking a methodical look at the risks. The eurozone is stagnating at
:24:47. > :24:55.the moment, that's why Spaniards, Italian and Portuguese are pouring
:24:56. > :25:00.into this country in huge numbers. If the eurozone was to tilt into
:25:01. > :25:06.another recession, that risks a lot more. It is a risk, and the British
:25:07. > :25:09.answer to that should be to deepen the single market, to make it more
:25:10. > :25:20.effective, to have growth across Europe. You do, if you have a strong
:25:21. > :25:25.British voice arguing for growth across Europe. You're talking about
:25:26. > :25:30.these potential threats in the future, we have a threat now.
:25:31. > :25:34.Businesses in my constituency, Stoke-on-Trent, are not making
:25:35. > :25:40.investment decisions. Indecision, two years of negotiation if we
:25:41. > :25:46.leave. Hold on... Two years of indecision if we vote to leave. Why
:25:47. > :25:51.are they eyeing the British stock exchange if there is indecision?
:25:52. > :25:54.There will always be levels of flow and investment but what we are
:25:55. > :25:59.seeing is fear and concern about the future. I think of workers in
:26:00. > :26:05.Staffordshire who go to work at the Toyota plant in Derby, they have
:26:06. > :26:15.jobs because of being part of the single market. I'm talking about the
:26:16. > :26:20.risks if we remain. Do you deny that if we stay in we face further
:26:21. > :26:23.integration? We have had a clear commitment from the Prime Minister
:26:24. > :26:28.that we won't be involved in ever closer union and that is a big
:26:29. > :26:33.philosophical moment, that Britain has a distinct and different stance
:26:34. > :26:38.to the rest of the European Union. I think people will benefit from the
:26:39. > :26:43.best of both worlds. If that is the case, you will be familiar with D5
:26:44. > :26:48.president report, the official road map for greater integration into the
:26:49. > :26:55.European Union. It calls for financial, fiscal and political
:26:56. > :27:00.union by 2025. That could affect us. We have a clear commitment we will
:27:01. > :27:06.not be involved in ever closer union. Have you read this report?
:27:07. > :27:12.Not all of it. It is not a long report. It says much of what I have
:27:13. > :27:17.just named, not all, but much of that could be achieved already
:27:18. > :27:23.through a deepening of the single market, which is important for all
:27:24. > :27:28.28 EU members, so we would not necessarily be excluded. I am in
:27:29. > :27:35.favour of a deep into single market so that those 200,000 businesses in
:27:36. > :27:40.the UK, exporting to Europe, have greater growth and opportunities.
:27:41. > :27:45.People become richer. So there could be deeper integration. I would like
:27:46. > :27:49.to see the digital and service economy grated more, we want more
:27:50. > :27:56.jobs and growth across Europe that Britain will benefit from. Why would
:27:57. > :28:00.we, when we face a global fear about downturn, decide to cut ourselves
:28:01. > :28:08.off from the richest market in the world. You say it is the richest, it
:28:09. > :28:13.is also stagnating. Because we cannot do our own trade deals with
:28:14. > :28:17.the part of the world that is growing, our trade is therefore
:28:18. > :28:22.hindered. It has taken seven years to reach a deal with Canada, it is
:28:23. > :28:28.not complete, the free trade deal with Australia has been blocked by
:28:29. > :28:32.Italy. These are all growth markets, unlike Europe, and we are unable to
:28:33. > :28:38.do free trade deals with them. That is a risk. Do you honestly think
:28:39. > :28:44.that if we left Europe and there were negotiations with India about a
:28:45. > :28:49.free trade deal, the UK, 60 million people, would be ahead of the queue
:28:50. > :28:54.of the European Union... Nothing is happening with India for nine years.
:28:55. > :29:00.We had historic links with India. What about Australia and Canada? We
:29:01. > :29:04.are not owed a living in the world. We have to make our businesses grow
:29:05. > :29:09.on their own terms and you do that by being part of the European Union.
:29:10. > :29:14.You have a much greater weight around the world by being part of
:29:15. > :29:18.this. My point is that we have the best of both worlds. We have the
:29:19. > :29:24.historic connections with the Commonwealth, with America. But why
:29:25. > :29:29.does the American trade representative say to us you would
:29:30. > :29:35.be crazy to leave Europe. Why do our allies around the world say you
:29:36. > :29:39.should be part of Europe? You say we won't be part of any further
:29:40. > :29:43.political integration, you say we won't join the euro, we won't be
:29:44. > :29:48.part of Schengen, and yet it is clear Europe will become at least
:29:49. > :29:50.within the eurozone more and more integrated. We will have less
:29:51. > :29:58.influence on that, we will essentially become a semi detached
:29:59. > :30:02.country club. What is the point? The point is a growing market for
:30:03. > :30:05.British businesses of 500 million people, and yes, this is the point
:30:06. > :30:11.about the best of both worlds, we don't want ever closer political
:30:12. > :30:16.union. We want access to the single market. The best of both worlds,
:30:17. > :30:19.safer, stronger and better off in Europe.
:30:20. > :30:21.Now, this week President Obama will make his valedictory
:30:22. > :30:25.He'll even have lunch with the Queen to celebrate her ninetieth birthday,
:30:26. > :30:30.presumably after she's watched the Daily Politics.
:30:31. > :30:34.But it's another aspect of Mr Obama's visit
:30:35. > :30:38.While he's here, the leader of the free world is expected
:30:39. > :30:40.to endorse the idea of the UK remaining in the
:30:41. > :30:43.Those campaigning to leave the EU are,
:30:44. > :30:44.surprise, surprise, a
:30:45. > :30:47.Here's what Boris Johnson had to say yesterday.
:30:48. > :30:50.I just find it absolutely bizarre that we are being lectured
:30:51. > :30:51.by the Americans about giving up our sovereignty,
:30:52. > :30:57.The United States, for their own reasons, their own history,
:30:58. > :31:03.traditions, based on the ideas of no taxation without representation,
:31:04. > :31:05.a fervent belief in the inviolability of American democracy,
:31:06. > :31:07.they would not dream of sharing sovereignty.
:31:08. > :31:14.Is he in danger of making America look like a hypocrite?
:31:15. > :31:18.Not in danger of it, I am afraid there is an intrinsic hypocrisy.
:31:19. > :31:24.I do not know what he's going to say, but if that is
:31:25. > :31:30.the American argument, of course it is nakedly hypocritical.
:31:31. > :31:33.To discuss this I'm joined by James Rubin.
:31:34. > :31:38.He was a spokesman in the US State Department during Bill
:31:39. > :31:42.And Liam Fox, former Defence Secretary, and a leading
:31:43. > :31:44.light in the campaign to leave the EU.
:31:45. > :31:51.Why should the leader of her closest allies, with whom we have a special
:31:52. > :31:55.relationship, on your regard as crucial to this country, not say
:31:56. > :32:00.what he thinks is in our national interest? He is entitled to say what
:32:01. > :32:04.he thinks is an America's national interest, but whether it is in the
:32:05. > :32:08.interests of Britain is a different question. Of course the president is
:32:09. > :32:14.entitled to say what he thinks, but we have to add a couple of caveats.
:32:15. > :32:18.That is his view. There are other views in America, Senator Rubio for
:32:19. > :32:21.example expressing a different view, he has expressed what he thinks
:32:22. > :32:29.about the special relationship if Britain were to leave the European
:32:30. > :32:31.Union. Tell me one previous American administration, Democratic or
:32:32. > :32:37.Republican, that thought we should not be in the EU, or did not care if
:32:38. > :32:41.we left? It is not a question of what the express, it is that they
:32:42. > :32:46.should respect what Britain does. They all want us to stay? There were
:32:47. > :32:50.strong elements of the last Republican administration, strong
:32:51. > :32:54.Republican leaders at present, who do not think... I do not remember
:32:55. > :33:00.the second President Bush saying that Britain should leave the EU.
:33:01. > :33:05.The debate is now, about our future, our relationship with the rest of
:33:06. > :33:09.the world. It is fair to say, though I might not use the same
:33:10. > :33:13.terminology, it is unthinkable that the United States would allow a
:33:14. > :33:17.court to overrule the Supreme Court or someone else to determine their
:33:18. > :33:22.external borders, in a way that the European Union does for the United
:33:23. > :33:28.Kingdom. Boris Johnson has made that point. President Obama, supporting
:33:29. > :33:31.things for Britain, things that no European -- that no American
:33:32. > :33:36.president would contemplate. Maybe we would be more inclined to listen
:33:37. > :33:40.to the president if he favoured an open border with Mexico, and if
:33:41. > :33:46.Congress was no longer the ultimate decider of federal law? Let me see a
:33:47. > :33:49.couple of things. I am glad that my colleague agrees that the president
:33:50. > :33:53.is attacked -- entitled to express his view of what is in the
:33:54. > :34:01.President's interest. -- America's interest. America and the EU
:34:02. > :34:05.together, they are the most powerful force for free markets and democracy
:34:06. > :34:09.around the world. If Britain leads the European Union, we will be
:34:10. > :34:12.weaker. We will might be able to pursue the great values that our
:34:13. > :34:17.countries have pushed around the world. Written working with the
:34:18. > :34:23.United States and the EU is able to do that. We have a joke in America,
:34:24. > :34:26.but it is a serious matter. Friends do not let friends drive drunk. This
:34:27. > :34:30.is not in our interest, or the interests of the world. What about
:34:31. > :34:35.our interest? You will make that judgment. Is the president simply
:34:36. > :34:41.going to say it is in the interests of America? I think he will avoid
:34:42. > :34:46.telling Britain what is in Britain's interest. About the point on
:34:47. > :34:50.hypocrisy, I know Boris Johnson likes to read biographies of the
:34:51. > :34:55.past. Maybe he is living in the past when he thinks that America is a
:34:56. > :35:00.very large country, a superpower, it has the world's largest military. It
:35:01. > :35:06.does not have to do only what you choose is compared to the British.
:35:07. > :35:09.Britain is a different country, not the superpower any more. Just
:35:10. > :35:13.because we will not do something does not mean that the British
:35:14. > :35:17.ignored. If the US president was coming here to support Leave, you
:35:18. > :35:22.would be shouting it from the rooftops? I do not think we will
:35:23. > :35:27.find out if that is true or not. There is an element of hypocrisy. We
:35:28. > :35:33.need to get the balance. We need to stick to the issues. We recognise
:35:34. > :35:37.the president is alleged to have his view, but it is not the only
:35:38. > :35:41.American view of what is in America's interests. We have to
:35:42. > :35:45.recognise it is a British debate ultimately. We will make our
:35:46. > :35:49.decision. As to this point about pushing our values, Britain had the
:35:50. > :35:54.same values before we joined the European Union in 1973. The fact we
:35:55. > :35:59.will be changing our philosophical approach because we are part of the
:36:00. > :36:03.group in union is not true. I mean that the EU is a very powerful
:36:04. > :36:07.instrument in our world. The United States has great military power, but
:36:08. > :36:12.there are other powers we need to achieve order and stability, and
:36:13. > :36:17.promote free markets. We need the ability to promote sanctions and
:36:18. > :36:22.provide aid. We need the ability to promote democracy. The EU is good at
:36:23. > :36:27.that working with the United States. We are better able to do that when
:36:28. > :36:32.our closest ally is within the EU. Let him come back on that. We think
:36:33. > :36:36.that the European Union is failing and that the structural failures of
:36:37. > :36:40.the European Union are not good for the West. We are seeing the
:36:41. > :36:44.re-emergence of nationalist tensions across Europe. We are seeing fence
:36:45. > :36:50.building. That is not the fault of the EU. It is a failure of the EU.
:36:51. > :36:54.We are seeing a whole generation of young Europeans unemployed as a
:36:55. > :36:58.result of the single currency. It is creating tensions. You did not have
:36:59. > :37:03.a problem with foreigners weighing in during the Scottish referendum.
:37:04. > :37:09.You told the Scandinavian countries, if your analysis is that Scottish
:37:10. > :37:12.independence is a threat to your security, why are you not standing
:37:13. > :37:16.up and saying it? President Obama probably thinks it is a threat to
:37:17. > :37:22.allow security, so why should they not see that? I thought it was a
:37:23. > :37:27.risk to the security of Britain in the Scottish referendum if we left
:37:28. > :37:31.Natal. If Britain pulls out of the EU, the Scottish will pull out of
:37:32. > :37:35.Britain and there will be a hold-mac in Natal. I do not believe that to
:37:36. > :37:41.be true. When were you last in Scotland? I was recently there and I
:37:42. > :37:47.sat with the Scottish party leader. They have been clear that if the EU
:37:48. > :37:51.does not include Britain, the Scottish want to lead. Interest is
:37:52. > :37:56.one thing, having an opinion about what the SNP will do is different.
:37:57. > :38:00.THEY ALL SPEAK AT ONCE What about Senator Cruise, he is
:38:01. > :38:04.fighting for the Republican nomination with Donald Trump. He
:38:05. > :38:09.said that Mr Obama's comments will make it more likely that England, he
:38:10. > :38:13.means Britain, that England will pull out of the EU? I do not think
:38:14. > :38:18.it will have a massive impact either way in terms of the British result.
:38:19. > :38:22.I think it is important for us to recognise that this is a decision
:38:23. > :38:27.for the United Kingdom. I do not agree with this assessment that the
:38:28. > :38:31.European Union in its current model is good for the United States. It is
:38:32. > :38:37.unstable. Now you're giving an opinion for us. You just asked me
:38:38. > :38:41.not to do that. The United States and Britain working together have
:38:42. > :38:45.made the world a better place for democracy, for a free market. We are
:38:46. > :38:51.only able to do that successfully when our closest ally is part of the
:38:52. > :38:55.EU. American foreign policy will be weaker, Western foreign policy will
:38:56. > :38:59.be weaker if the British leave the EU. We look forward to the
:39:00. > :39:01.President's visit, whatever he has to say. Thank you.
:39:02. > :39:09.It's just gone 11:35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.
:39:10. > :39:12.Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics in Northern Ireland.
:39:13. > :39:17.It's been a dramatic year for the SDLP with a leader toppled
:39:18. > :39:19.and the young pretender taking the prize.
:39:20. > :39:22.But can Colum Eastwood really turn the party's fortunes around?
:39:23. > :39:25.I'll be asking his colleague Dolores Kelly to set out the party's
:39:26. > :39:29.Plus, representatives of the Assembly's smaller parties -
:39:30. > :39:32.the TUV, Greens and UKIP - will be making the case
:39:33. > :39:35.And with me throughout with their thoughts,
:39:36. > :39:48.The party goes into this election with a new,
:39:49. > :39:49.young leader after Colum Eastwood successfully challenged
:39:50. > :39:54.But the world of politics can be harsh and leaders
:39:55. > :39:59.So can the party reverse its recent declining vote?
:40:00. > :40:02.We invited Colum Eastwood on to today's programme
:40:03. > :40:05.but we were told he was unavailable, so with me instead is the party's
:40:06. > :40:17.A vote for the SDLP on May 5th is a vote for what, precisely?
:40:18. > :40:25.I think our party leader set it out clearly, it is a vote for fairness,
:40:26. > :40:34.a vote to make Northern Ireland work, a vote to support families and
:40:35. > :40:40.children, to attempt to deal with the scourge of poverty that is so
:40:41. > :40:44.prevalent in our society, to better protect our older people and send a
:40:45. > :40:46.strong message to those who attacked them in their own homes that they
:40:47. > :40:49.could face custodial sentences. You've decided that,
:40:50. > :40:51.even though there is now a place called opposition,
:40:52. > :40:54.that's not where you want to be - even though you were pretty keen
:40:55. > :41:00.on the idea yourself in the past. I think all politicians fight
:41:01. > :41:05.elections to win. We don't fight to go to into opposition. I think in
:41:06. > :41:12.try to move Northern Ireland forward and try to make it work, I
:41:13. > :41:16.recognised in my -- and the party recognises that opposition can be a
:41:17. > :41:21.good thing when ever parties aren't delivering, clearly, we have seen
:41:22. > :41:26.over the last nine years, the two main parties haven't delivered for
:41:27. > :41:32.the people of Northern Ireland. It is not your intention to go into
:41:33. > :41:35.opposition? I think Colum Eastwood set it out clearly, first and
:41:36. > :41:40.foremost, we are fighting to win. We will work with other parties in
:41:41. > :41:44.looking to have our priorities set within the programme for government.
:41:45. > :41:54.We will judge the outcome of that in terms of the programme for
:41:55. > :41:56.government, and we are committed to true partnership rather than the
:41:57. > :42:06.division of spoils that we've seen with the two big parties over the
:42:07. > :42:13.last years. What does fighting to win mean, precisely? Because you are
:42:14. > :42:18.only running 24 candidates? We're giving choice, we are setting out
:42:19. > :42:22.our manifesto, knocking on doors, taking part in debates and fighting
:42:23. > :42:24.to win is actually about try to get a strong mandate, to try and get all
:42:25. > :42:43.of those candidates elected. It doesn't look like a party on the
:42:44. > :42:51.march to a bigger presence in government. It looks like you are on
:42:52. > :42:56.the retreat. I don't set that. -- accept that. I think what we are
:42:57. > :43:00.looking to do is to win and do better in terms of the outcome for
:43:01. > :43:04.the election. I recognise and the party recognises over the last few
:43:05. > :43:09.years, it hasn't been good for the SDLP. It hasn't been good for middle
:43:10. > :43:15.ground. More and more people have decided to stay at home, it isn't
:43:16. > :43:19.something that has only been affliction on the SDLP, all parties
:43:20. > :43:22.have found more people are staying at home and apathy is one of the
:43:23. > :43:32.greatest risks to all of our campaigns. Sinn Fein's vote has gone
:43:33. > :43:40.up dramatically since Iraq. -- has gone up dramatically in the last few
:43:41. > :43:48.years. It has gone up by 35 thousand. Their vote has plateaued
:43:49. > :43:52.over the last few years. I think they have lost votes in some areas
:43:53. > :43:56.and didn't do as well in southern elections as they thought they
:43:57. > :44:00.would. They also didn't win the presidential campaign in the South
:44:01. > :44:03.so Sinn Fein has plateaued. I don't think it is just about the nub of
:44:04. > :44:09.candidates you run, I think it is also about having a strong team at
:44:10. > :44:17.the Executive. How many seats is the SDLP looking for? You have 14 at the
:44:18. > :44:23.moment, what is your targets? I would fall into the trap of
:44:24. > :44:27.predicting outcomes and numbers. We have a strong message, we are asking
:44:28. > :44:31.people to come out in supporters again, stop lending their vote...
:44:32. > :44:38.Fewer than 14, that wouldn't be success. We are putting a strong
:44:39. > :44:43.team forward. If you go back with fewer than 14, that would not be
:44:44. > :44:47.regarded a success, could it? I do not believe we will have any sense
:44:48. > :44:50.of failure. It is my sense that the doors that people want the SDLP to
:44:51. > :45:08.have success. I have every confidence in Colum
:45:09. > :45:11.Eastwood. He has a strong performer, both in media, here's a sharp
:45:12. > :45:14.political thinker and I think there is a lot of ambition. People are
:45:15. > :45:20.recognising that. I think the party will get a bounce because of that.
:45:21. > :45:26.You are investing a lot in him as the bright young thing he will move
:45:27. > :45:31.the party forward and attract a whole new raft of voters. This is
:45:32. > :45:36.meant to be a leaders debate, a leader interview and Colum Eastwood
:45:37. > :45:42.is not available nor is his new deputy leader. It is lovely to have
:45:43. > :45:47.you here but you are the former deputy. What is going on? It is
:45:48. > :45:51.something I have been asked to do and I stepped up to do this. There
:45:52. > :45:58.will be other opportunities. Obviously he has spent a lot of time
:45:59. > :46:03.in constituencies. He needs to look over his own backyard. Is that part
:46:04. > :46:10.of the story? Is he worried about Sinn Fein? Absolutely not, he has
:46:11. > :46:17.been a several constituencies, working very hard, and if anyone
:46:18. > :46:21.looks at how he performed against his main rivals, they looked old and
:46:22. > :46:26.tired. At least we have a manifesto to discuss today, unlike some other
:46:27. > :46:30.parties. West Tyrone is a bit of a problem for you, three defections
:46:31. > :46:35.from the party, two of them standing against you in May the fair. Seven
:46:36. > :46:41.party officers also left. Is that a bit of a disaster? It is
:46:42. > :46:47.regrettable, but I am convinced we have a very strong and able
:46:48. > :46:51.candidate in Daniel McCrossan. It is regrettable that some people who
:46:52. > :46:56.chose not to put themselves forward for selection have now taken this
:46:57. > :46:59.view and many of them, I believe, are good people, but that is what
:47:00. > :47:06.happens in political parties around selection times. What is the party's
:47:07. > :47:12.edition on criminalising a woman who has taken pills to induce an
:47:13. > :47:16.abortion? It is clear there are two tests in terms of public
:47:17. > :47:20.prosecution, one is whether or not a crime was committed, and that was
:47:21. > :47:23.the case. Whether it was in public interest to prosecute. I do not
:47:24. > :47:27.believe that it up in the case. You do not think the women in the case
:47:28. > :47:35.in the headlines recently should have been prosecuted? That would be
:47:36. > :47:39.a case of the judiciary. You are pro-life and your party is pro-life,
:47:40. > :47:44.but it you uncomfortable at the fact that now a young woman received a
:47:45. > :47:47.suspended sentence still has a criminal record. That mixing
:47:48. > :47:56.uncomfortable? I am clearly pro-life. There is a sensitive
:47:57. > :47:59.conversation to be had about all the risks and concerns that people have
:48:00. > :48:04.and I think that is something that I would want the working group to the
:48:05. > :48:08.looking at in around pregnancies. Might some people who are pro-life
:48:09. > :48:11.you would want to support the SDLP be concerned about what you have
:48:12. > :48:16.just said because they may think if you say you are uncomfortable at
:48:17. > :48:18.someone being criminalised in the circumstances, it could potentially
:48:19. > :48:22.open the floodgates to this happening again and again in
:48:23. > :48:25.Northern Ireland? That is a risk, and there are individual
:48:26. > :48:31.circumstances and that is something the public prosecution services has
:48:32. > :48:34.to make a judgment around. Promoting the integrated education of Catholic
:48:35. > :48:38.and Protestant children, does that mean you're prepared to take typical
:48:39. > :48:45.decisions that may affect the Catholic maintained sector?
:48:46. > :48:48.Education is something we are finding, people are talking to us
:48:49. > :48:55.about on the doors. They haven't been happy about performance over
:48:56. > :49:03.the last nine years over education. I hold faith based education very
:49:04. > :49:07.dear. We all recognise if we are to build a shed and reconciled future,
:49:08. > :49:10.and if we are able to afford an excellent education service for all
:49:11. > :49:15.our children, we need to start looking at better integration of our
:49:16. > :49:21.young people and children in our schools and that is something the
:49:22. > :49:25.Catholic bishops and other church leaders recently met and discussed.
:49:26. > :49:30.If they are not satisfied with the current structure and model, that is
:49:31. > :49:33.something I think we should all start to put our heads together and
:49:34. > :49:39.come up with one. If the bishops weren't happy with the policy line
:49:40. > :49:44.you are pursuing, woody stand up to them? I think what we would do is
:49:45. > :49:47.put the children first and not vested interests. We would look at
:49:48. > :49:51.the best educational outcomes for all our children and young people
:49:52. > :49:53.and not the vested interests. Interesting to hear your thoughts
:49:54. > :49:56.today. Thank you. Let's find out what my guests make
:49:57. > :50:09.of what we just heard. What do you make of the SDLP's
:50:10. > :50:15.ambition and its new leader? Think the first thing is this is a leaders
:50:16. > :50:25.debate and Colin is not here and that raises certain questions. --
:50:26. > :50:28.Colum Eastwood. He is the leader of the party across northern Ireland
:50:29. > :50:36.and I think you should be here. People need to hear him, seeing what
:50:37. > :50:40.he has to say, he has made it in his shadow, what he wants, so I think it
:50:41. > :50:46.is important that he is able to stand and articulate what the new
:50:47. > :50:49.party looks like. For him, I think demonstrating that he can lead a
:50:50. > :50:56.revival is important. I don't think it will be the catastrophe that
:50:57. > :50:59.people had suggested he would lose a number of feet, I don't think that
:51:00. > :51:09.will happen but I think he has to be able to show that he has a vision
:51:10. > :51:17.for the party. Do you think the target is likely to be holding those
:51:18. > :51:23.14 seats, as Deirdre suggested? Absolutely. That should be fairly
:51:24. > :51:26.comfortable for him. It has been noticeable that in some of the few
:51:27. > :51:31.clashes of the campaign, that it has been column Easter Road and Martin
:51:32. > :51:44.McGuinness going personally after each other. -- Colum Eastwood. What
:51:45. > :51:48.about the debate about governmental opposition? Colum Eastwood so there
:51:49. > :51:55.is no place called, he now has conceded there is. I think it is
:51:56. > :51:57.difficult to go out and asked people for their vote saying you're going
:51:58. > :52:00.into opposition but I think they have to leap that option open. They
:52:01. > :52:05.have to say if we are not satisfied with proposed programme for
:52:06. > :52:10.government, we will go into opposition. It is a slightly more
:52:11. > :52:14.difficult one. I think it is the lack of delivery, and they should
:52:15. > :52:21.focus on it. The problem is we not clear where they sit on the
:52:22. > :52:25.political arena, and a leftist, Central, affiliated with the British
:52:26. > :52:30.Labour Party, Irish Labour Party? I think that messaging is still not
:52:31. > :52:33.quite clear and we're not sure what differentiates them from Sinn Fein,
:52:34. > :52:40.what will they deliver that other people cannot? I was struck by what
:52:41. > :52:43.Dolores said about the question of opposition. After the televised
:52:44. > :52:49.debate on Wednesday night, I got the sense from Colum Eastwood that he
:52:50. > :52:54.was lining up to go into opposition. After the debate on Thursday night I
:52:55. > :53:00.got the opposite sense and Dolores, who has been consistent and
:53:01. > :53:04.articulate, there was no hint that all in anything she said that the
:53:05. > :53:13.party is likely to take that option. What we are likely to see is no
:53:14. > :53:18.opposition. Interesting discussion and thoughts on the position of the
:53:19. > :53:19.SDLP and what Dolores had to say. We will talk to you later in the
:53:20. > :53:21.programme. Thank you for now. With the campaign now in full
:53:22. > :53:23.flight, The View brought senior figures from the five main parties
:53:24. > :53:26.together on Thursday night. The venue was Moyola Precision
:53:27. > :53:36.Engineering in Castledawson. We want to see unrestrained ambition
:53:37. > :53:44.for jobs here and actually getting the place working. We want to see
:53:45. > :53:52.joined up government, ... We're going in to seek votes. I knew going
:53:53. > :53:57.into government or not? We want to go into government, of course. So
:53:58. > :54:00.you will understand that the public are slightly sceptical when in the
:54:01. > :54:04.run-up to an election your party says you are going to be transparent
:54:05. > :54:12.and then after that nothing happens. You had two years. As you know the
:54:13. > :54:21.decision doesn't rest with the Executive. It does, because we
:54:22. > :54:26.voluntarily published hours. -- we published our. You know very well it
:54:27. > :54:33.is a matter for the government in London. There are difficult
:54:34. > :54:41.decisions as far as health is concerned. By the Ulster Unionists
:54:42. > :54:44.up for that? I think the record of Sinn Fein being in charge of
:54:45. > :54:49.education over the years has been nothing short of a disaster and it
:54:50. > :54:54.has been ideological driven, primarily on the issue of selection,
:54:55. > :55:02.and I don't think... I didn't interrupt you, Michelle. Do you
:55:03. > :55:05.agree? There are issues. Let a month, we need to move on. -- let
:55:06. > :55:06.him answer. We had two major television
:55:07. > :55:13.debates this week. Are the parties getting
:55:14. > :55:22.their message out? The EU referendum issue over the
:55:23. > :55:27.last couple of months, then the centenary of the Easter rising, said
:55:28. > :55:32.it was only last week we saw the debate begin. I think people are
:55:33. > :55:42.wary about these things so it is not a bad thing. I thought the DUP and
:55:43. > :55:45.Sinn Fein were coming across more as governing partners. Not so much
:55:46. > :55:53.acrimony as there had been in past years. What is also fascinating is
:55:54. > :55:58.that several people have mentioned to me that we are now at least so
:55:59. > :56:00.far in this campaign discussing different issues from the issues we
:56:01. > :56:05.have discussed in previous campaigns. We're not talking about
:56:06. > :56:13.welfare reform, flags parades, we're talking about education and jobs and
:56:14. > :56:19.abortion. The landscape for discussion seems to have altered a
:56:20. > :56:22.bit. And I think most people have welcomed the fact we have moved to
:56:23. > :56:28.the so-called bread-and-butter facts. I noted a poll yesterday said
:56:29. > :56:31.education is now the one issue on the doorsteps. People want to know
:56:32. > :56:35.what the education system is going to look like, they want to know how
:56:36. > :56:39.we are going to grow our economy and they are concerned we seem to be
:56:40. > :56:43.cutting back on education, reducing skills base and at the same time
:56:44. > :56:46.saying we're going to the economy with a reduced rate of corporation
:56:47. > :56:48.tax. Well, we saw the five main parties
:56:49. > :56:51.in action on Thursday night's With me in the studio
:56:52. > :56:56.are Jim Allister of the TUV, Steven Agnew of the Greens
:56:57. > :57:01.and Noel Jordan of UKIP. You've been quoted this week
:57:02. > :57:03.as saying that your ambition is to secure the election of several
:57:04. > :57:06.MLAs and winning no seats would be failure written
:57:07. > :57:09.in capital letters. Success, you said, has
:57:10. > :57:20.to be more than one MLA. How likely are you to get that
:57:21. > :57:23.success realistically? That is entirely up to the people. If the
:57:24. > :57:30.people of Northern Ireland are perfectly happy with the perpetual
:57:31. > :57:33.failure with the abysmal squander of Stormont, then they will vote for
:57:34. > :57:39.the same parties again who have brought them that. And they will not
:57:40. > :57:46.be disappointed. But if they want change that they will notice, then
:57:47. > :57:49.they will vote for the authentic effective voice of opposition in
:57:50. > :57:56.Stormont which is the TUV which has shone the light into the dark
:57:57. > :57:59.corners of Stormont, exposed the squander, in a constant thorn in the
:58:00. > :58:03.flesh of miserable failing this government to which we have been
:58:04. > :58:07.subjected. Is entirely a matter for the people. They had been provided
:58:08. > :58:11.with the opportunity, but if they are happy with squander and failure
:58:12. > :58:16.and more deadlock and five years of crisis, then they will not make any
:58:17. > :58:18.change. They will vote for parties that give them that, if they want
:58:19. > :58:38.change, they will vote TUV. Use see things differently. -- you
:58:39. > :58:43.see things differently. You do not think Stormont is a busted flush at
:58:44. > :58:47.this stage. I think people are rightly frustrated by the failure
:58:48. > :58:54.and wasted opportunities by the five executive parties. The Green party
:58:55. > :59:03.'s tackling to pledge -- pledging to tackle that. If we look at my own
:59:04. > :59:07.track record in the Assembly, despite being the only MLA, I could
:59:08. > :59:15.produce a piece of legislation around child services. That is what
:59:16. > :59:20.we were able to do, with one MLA, we are now giving people to elect --
:59:21. > :59:28.giving people the choice to elect 18th MLAs. We have a third in
:59:29. > :59:39.membership, we are confident. Haass a surge.
:59:40. > :59:49.I'll not be happy with just one seat. It is no secret that our
:59:50. > :59:53.strength lies in certain areas that I would be disappointed if we had
:59:54. > :00:01.any less than three, but I believe we can achieve even more than that.
:00:02. > :00:07.If you have fewer than three seat, you will admit that his failure? I
:00:08. > :00:18.will be disappointed, more MLAs will be success, any less than three will
:00:19. > :00:25.be disappointing. A change -- I change legislation in the last
:00:26. > :00:28.Assembly. We expose the Executive on a number of environmental protection
:00:29. > :00:32.issues. That is what I measure success on. That is what we did with
:00:33. > :00:46.one, we could do so much more with more MLAs.
:00:47. > :00:49.With DUP and TUV both eurosceptic partes, is UKIP looking for votes
:00:50. > :01:01.You have always be Eurosceptic. I understand where Jimmy is coming
:01:02. > :01:05.from. We have stood solo. We believe we have stood on our own, we have
:01:06. > :01:10.taken criticism from all directions and we have stood for -- firm in our
:01:11. > :01:20.position. We believe we can do far better. On some other issues, on a
:01:21. > :01:24.whole raft of other issues, your policies are not genetically
:01:25. > :01:30.different from those of the DUP in some aspects, the TUV, and some
:01:31. > :01:34.aspects also be Ulster Unionist party. It will be difficult for you
:01:35. > :01:37.to persuade voters that you should get a higher preference than some of
:01:38. > :01:42.the other long-standing parties. That is quite a hill to climb. It
:01:43. > :01:45.is. At the end of the day, the other parties have had their chance, they
:01:46. > :01:50.have made promises and they haven't delivered. We listen to what the
:01:51. > :01:55.people have to say and I think that is where we have the advantage
:01:56. > :01:58.because people are showing an interest in politics now, people who
:01:59. > :02:02.would normally not vote are telling us on the doorsteps that they are
:02:03. > :02:07.looking for an alternative and we believe that we are that
:02:08. > :02:11.alternative. I want to talk about some policy issues. You will want to
:02:12. > :02:18.create jobs, improve the health service and invest in education. How
:02:19. > :02:23.are you going to achieve that within the current financial constraints
:02:24. > :02:30.that Northern Ireland operates? The creation of jobs? Yes, that all
:02:31. > :02:37.requires money. Where will it come from? You start by cutting out the
:02:38. > :02:43.squander. We squandered 130 million on pretty useless North-South
:02:44. > :02:48.bodies, 5 million a year on spin doctors to tell us that DUP, Sinn
:02:49. > :02:54.Fein misgovernment is good for us, we squandered 15 million on wining
:02:55. > :02:58.and dining so there is lots of squander to be cut out of the
:02:59. > :03:04.system. Then a proper approach to the expenditure of that money. Take
:03:05. > :03:07.the single issue, biggest issue, of the economy. This executive has only
:03:08. > :03:14.one thought and idea about fixing the economy and it is one which is
:03:15. > :03:19.fast becoming irrelevant. It is reducing corporation tax, which
:03:20. > :03:25.itself requires a massive reduction in the grant for health, education
:03:26. > :03:35.and other things. With UK level of operation tax reducing to 70%, it is
:03:36. > :03:38.fast diminishing. We had a demonstration in my constituency of
:03:39. > :03:47.its ineffectiveness. About the time corporation tax will be reduced, to
:03:48. > :03:50.large companies will depart our shores. It wasn't enough to leave
:03:51. > :03:56.your them to stay so I very much questioned the wisdom of reducing
:03:57. > :04:03.our block grant by ?300 million or whatever the precise figure is in
:04:04. > :04:10.order to afford taxation to large corporations. Cut in corporation tax
:04:11. > :04:13.is actually a huge stake. We have heard the complaints about the cuts,
:04:14. > :04:20.we can't do this because of the cuts. The five executive parties are
:04:21. > :04:23.voluntarily asking for more cuts, we can't afford it. The state of our
:04:24. > :04:29.health service, my own grandparents had been in and out of hospital,
:04:30. > :04:32.unfortunately, my grandfather died. I've seen them getting discharged
:04:33. > :04:35.early before they were better, I seen the problems in our health
:04:36. > :04:38.service and there is five parties who have a cosy consensus that we
:04:39. > :04:48.should take 300 million now out of our system. Is there ever a good
:04:49. > :04:55.time? What's happening in the states, perhaps it isn't such a good
:04:56. > :05:00.idea at the moment. These parties are proposing 2018, I oppose that.
:05:01. > :05:07.What we have heard continually from these parties is 100% cut budgets.
:05:08. > :05:12.They have not proposed any revenue. You would be all for raising
:05:13. > :05:16.revenue. I would be in favour of those who can afford to pay more,
:05:17. > :05:19.paying more. I speak to people and they say they are willing to
:05:20. > :05:25.contribute to the health service. For example, in my children's Bill,
:05:26. > :05:30.one of the issues was problems around special education 's needs.
:05:31. > :05:38.Schools don't have the resources to provide for special education needs.
:05:39. > :05:43.My party would address that. We are already taking 500 million out of
:05:44. > :05:48.the block grant to cushion welfare reform and the Greens wanted even
:05:49. > :05:54.more, the huge amount of money which would drain and haemorrhage the
:05:55. > :05:59.money out of education. I want to be in -- bring Noel Jordan in. You have
:06:00. > :06:03.lots of claims in your manifesto, how will you pay for all those
:06:04. > :06:12.reforms without a serious programme of revenue raising, of which there
:06:13. > :06:16.is very little detail. We will be holding the Executive to account, we
:06:17. > :06:21.will be looking to an executive to find this money from whatever means
:06:22. > :06:24.they can through Treasury. You make the claims, the extravagant claims
:06:25. > :06:28.about what you will do and what needs to be done and then you say it
:06:29. > :06:37.is up to that locked to actually do it. The Executive, we need to sit
:06:38. > :06:40.with like-minded people to budget and prioritise the needs of the
:06:41. > :06:43.people. The people are not worried where the money comes from as long
:06:44. > :06:50.as it delivers for them. How would you tackle hospital waiting lists?
:06:51. > :06:55.The DUP health minister said he is putting an extra ?1 billion then,
:06:56. > :06:59.that is in the manifesto. Do you agree that is a good idea and where
:07:00. > :07:03.would you find the money for that? The money has to be prioritised. I
:07:04. > :07:07.keep going back to this. There is only a certain amount of money and
:07:08. > :07:15.people are real. The people are real. They need dealt with. I know
:07:16. > :07:20.that, but I'm asking how you will deal with them. We will go into
:07:21. > :07:24.Stormont and try and hold the Executive accountable to find money
:07:25. > :07:27.within the budgets to deal with these issues, deal with waiting
:07:28. > :07:36.list, with the vulnerable, with the elderly. The problem we have is we
:07:37. > :07:43.had Arlene Foster saying she was proud her party was a low text
:07:44. > :07:52.party, that means it's also a low spend party. -- low tax party. That
:07:53. > :07:57.is ultimately what their problem is. If they are proud of that policy,
:07:58. > :08:02.they should be proud of waiting lists, proud of the reduction in
:08:03. > :08:08.quality of care people are seeing. How enthusiastic it you about
:08:09. > :08:11.revenue raising? One of the things that has accentuated the problem in
:08:12. > :08:14.waiting lists is the fact this executive has reduced the number of
:08:15. > :08:19.beds in hospitals by 10%. You cannot reduce the number of beds and then
:08:20. > :08:23.be surprised that there is a logjam in A and elsewhere when you need
:08:24. > :08:26.to transfer patients. It is about putting the money out of the
:08:27. > :08:29.bureaucracy and the tears of deputy directors of this that and the
:08:30. > :08:36.other, and putting it into the front line, doctors and nurses and beds
:08:37. > :08:40.which deliver the job. How keen argue on voters and maybe faith
:08:41. > :08:44.putting their hands in their pockets to pay for the kind of investment
:08:45. > :08:50.that you say is necessary. Our front would you be about revenue needing
:08:51. > :08:53.to be raised? Just as corporation tax, I wouldn't let this miserable
:08:54. > :08:57.failing executive put its hand in anyone's pocket. I would not give
:08:58. > :09:00.the Executive any fiscal raising powers. They have demonstrated their
:09:01. > :09:04.inability to deal with the powers they have.
:09:05. > :09:07.Let's have a quick look back at the political week in sixty
:09:08. > :09:23.In the week when the EU referendum campaign began, the board of invest
:09:24. > :09:28.Northern Ireland decided against taking a position on whether the UK
:09:29. > :09:32.should leave or remain. There was unwelcome news for the pro Brexit
:09:33. > :09:39.lobby with bomb by DA's decision to back the campaign to stay in. After
:09:40. > :09:42.controversy over the Prime Minister's finances, politicians
:09:43. > :09:47.here publish their tax details but did the public appreciate the move?
:09:48. > :10:00.We want to know who we are voting for and what they are up to. Think
:10:01. > :10:02.my wife doesn't even seem IP 60! In Dublin, the courtship of
:10:03. > :10:09.independence continued in a bid to form a government. We are getting
:10:10. > :10:16.very used to being love bombed by both sides. The problem here is that
:10:17. > :10:19.he won't love on each other! -- you won't love bomb each other.
:10:20. > :10:22.Gareth Gordon there - and we've just time for a final word
:10:23. > :10:28.We've seen the rise of the smaller parties in the Republic,
:10:29. > :10:36.will the naughty corner at Stormont be getting a few additions, Sam?
:10:37. > :10:42.I think the naughty corner has performed an invaluable public
:10:43. > :10:45.service. If it was left to the Executive parties, the Assembly
:10:46. > :10:49.would just be a rubber-stamping body and what little public interest
:10:50. > :10:53.there is in it from ourselves as the media, from Enders of the public,
:10:54. > :10:56.would not even be there. Very often they have asked the difficult
:10:57. > :11:01.questions on issues where there is this widespread consensus such as
:11:02. > :11:14.corporation tax. Very often it has been the Greens, TUC, asking these.
:11:15. > :11:19.If you can't do that within an Assembly, there is very little point
:11:20. > :11:25.in having an Assembly. Do you think those independent voices are
:11:26. > :11:31.valuable and potentially on the March? I think in many ways the
:11:32. > :11:35.outcome is predictable and that is why many people have turned off. It
:11:36. > :11:40.is the smaller parties and independents that people will be
:11:41. > :11:43.looking to. They have performed an invaluable role where we don't have
:11:44. > :11:48.an opposition, and there is a view out there and opinion polls are
:11:49. > :11:50.telling us, there is a view there isn't enough scrutiny,
:11:51. > :11:55.accountability and the system of scrutiny that currently exists
:11:56. > :11:58.doesn't work, so I can say they will be an increase in vote and certainly
:11:59. > :12:01.because of the EU referendum coming quickly after the election, I think
:12:02. > :12:07.that will provide a bounce for some of the smaller parties. Which should
:12:08. > :12:10.make the point, I was talking about some parties fishing in the same
:12:11. > :12:17.point, given the electoral system we have, that's not the Sara Lee always
:12:18. > :12:23.a catastrophe. It isn't, and particularly when you try to attract
:12:24. > :12:26.transfers for those parties. -- it's not particularly always a
:12:27. > :12:30.catastrophe. That is what makes it so fascinating. Thank you very much.
:12:31. > :12:32.That's it from Sunday Politics for this week.
:12:33. > :12:34.I'll be back on Thursday as usual with The View.
:12:35. > :12:40.But for now, from everyone on the team, bye-bye.