2:49:27 > 2:49:29Hello, and welcome to Sunday Politics.
2:49:29 > 2:49:32Amid the shock of the murder of the MP Jo Cox,
2:49:32 > 2:49:35the EU referendum campaign enters its final days.
2:49:35 > 2:49:39The argument that a Brexit could destabilise the UK
2:49:39 > 2:49:42has been dismissed this weekend by a former Ulster Unionist leader
2:49:42 > 2:49:44and senior party figures.
2:49:44 > 2:49:47I don't believe people should underestimate the risk that
2:49:47 > 2:49:49this would begin the process
2:49:49 > 2:49:52by which the United Kingdom could begin to unravel.
2:49:52 > 2:49:56No. If we Brexit and the Republic of Ireland obviously stays
2:49:56 > 2:50:00as a part of the EU, we can have a special relationship.
2:50:00 > 2:50:03With me in the studio, the leaders of the Remain
2:50:03 > 2:50:06and the Leave campaigns here debate the subject one last time
2:50:06 > 2:50:10before Thursday's vote. And we'll hear what our guests of the day,
2:50:10 > 2:50:12Deirdre Heenan and Alex Kane, have to say
2:50:12 > 2:50:14as the debate enters the home straight.
2:50:19 > 2:50:23Official campaigning has resumed in the EU referendum
2:50:23 > 2:50:25after the murder of the Labour MP Jo Cox.
2:50:25 > 2:50:29Here, there's been an intervention by former and current
2:50:29 > 2:50:32senior Ulster Unionist figures, who have written to party members
2:50:32 > 2:50:34urging them to vote Leave on Thursday.
2:50:34 > 2:50:37They reject what they call "dishonest scaremongering"
2:50:37 > 2:50:40that a vote to leave will undermine peace in Northern Ireland.
2:50:40 > 2:50:44In a moment we'll hear from one of them, but first to that warning
2:50:44 > 2:50:46about the impact a Brexit could have here.
2:50:46 > 2:50:49Richard Haass is a former US Special Envoy to Northern Ireland
2:50:49 > 2:50:52who chaired talks to resolve the deadlock at Stormont, of course.
2:50:52 > 2:50:54Speaking to me from his office in New York,
2:50:54 > 2:50:58he told me that in his view the consequences of a Leave vote
2:50:58 > 2:51:00could be damaging for people here.
2:51:00 > 2:51:03I do think peace in Northern Ireland
2:51:03 > 2:51:05should not be taken for granted.
2:51:05 > 2:51:09I'm not suggesting that the morning after a vote for Brexit
2:51:09 > 2:51:11there would be riots in the street.
2:51:11 > 2:51:13That's the caricature of what I intended.
2:51:13 > 2:51:18I am worried, though, that a vote for Brexit could very well lead
2:51:18 > 2:51:20to a new referendum in Scotland,
2:51:20 > 2:51:24and I believe the argument for remaining in the EU
2:51:24 > 2:51:26would carry the day there.
2:51:26 > 2:51:30Then if you move from a United Kingdom to something less,
2:51:30 > 2:51:33I believe the pressures will grow in Northern Ireland
2:51:33 > 2:51:35quite possibly for a border poll,
2:51:35 > 2:51:37and again the EU argument could come to the fore.
2:51:37 > 2:51:39There will be those who'll want to
2:51:39 > 2:51:42stay in the EU and that could be an argument for joining with Ireland.
2:51:42 > 2:51:46There will be those, obviously, the unionists, who would oppose that
2:51:46 > 2:51:49and I think you could see a situation where the ultimate fate,
2:51:49 > 2:51:53what we would call in other situations final status issues,
2:51:53 > 2:51:56would come to the fore in Northern Ireland,
2:51:56 > 2:52:00and I just don't assume that that's a situation where
2:52:00 > 2:52:04tempers would flare and once again we would see some signs of violence.
2:52:04 > 2:52:06Look, I'd love to be wrong here.
2:52:06 > 2:52:09I have been called a scaremonger and other things,
2:52:09 > 2:52:12- and first of all I hope that Brexit doesn't happen.- Well...
2:52:12 > 2:52:16But if it were to happen, I don't believe people should underestimate
2:52:16 > 2:52:19the risk that this would begin the process
2:52:19 > 2:52:22by which the United Kingdom could begin to unravel.
2:52:22 > 2:52:26Isn't it the case that the kind of political regression you describe
2:52:26 > 2:52:27is less likely than ever here
2:52:27 > 2:52:31because now we've got a DUP and Sinn Fein coalition in charge at Stormont
2:52:31 > 2:52:34in which both sides are very publicly committed
2:52:34 > 2:52:37to working together for at least the next five years?
2:52:37 > 2:52:40Doesn't that change the political landscape?
2:52:40 > 2:52:42Of course it does. And I think
2:52:42 > 2:52:46the Stormont House Agreement was obviously a welcome development.
2:52:46 > 2:52:49I think the fact that people are saying the things they're saying,
2:52:49 > 2:52:53that you're beginning to see a bit of cooperation, all that's good.
2:52:53 > 2:52:55All I'm saying, it takes place
2:52:55 > 2:52:58against a backdrop of many unresolved issues
2:52:58 > 2:53:01and it takes place potentially against a backdrop of Brexit.
2:53:01 > 2:53:03Again, don't get me wrong,
2:53:03 > 2:53:05there is nothing more I would like to see
2:53:05 > 2:53:10than Northern Ireland to continue down the path of political progress,
2:53:10 > 2:53:12of normalcy, of reconciliation,
2:53:12 > 2:53:15and where ultimately neighbourhoods weren't divided,
2:53:15 > 2:53:19schools weren't divided and the parties weren't defined
2:53:19 > 2:53:22by essentially political, religious traditions.
2:53:22 > 2:53:24I want to see the Northern Ireland come about
2:53:24 > 2:53:27where parties are defined by basic questions of the role of government
2:53:27 > 2:53:30and the economy or the relationship of individuals to societies
2:53:30 > 2:53:34which is the way political parties are defined in most of the world.
2:53:34 > 2:53:37But let's not kid ourselves. We are not at this point.
2:53:37 > 2:53:41And my concern about Brexit is it could actually be a major challenge
2:53:41 > 2:53:44to the ability of Northern Ireland's leaders,
2:53:44 > 2:53:47who, with all due respect, have often shown limited ability to lead.
2:53:47 > 2:53:50It is my view that this is a real challenge
2:53:50 > 2:53:53and it is for this reason also I question the decision, say,
2:53:53 > 2:53:56of the Secretary of State for Northern Ireland to favour Brexit.
2:53:56 > 2:53:57I don't understand,
2:53:57 > 2:54:00in some ways to turn around what you just said to me,
2:54:00 > 2:54:04why people would potentially put in jeopardy the progress that has been
2:54:04 > 2:54:07realised over the last 15 years
2:54:07 > 2:54:09and over the last one to two years in particular.
2:54:09 > 2:54:14That is why I don't believe that Brexit is a wise path to go down.
2:54:14 > 2:54:16Richard Haass in New York.
2:54:16 > 2:54:19And two former Prime Ministers, Sir John Major and Tony Blair,
2:54:19 > 2:54:22have made the same point and that's provoked a response
2:54:22 > 2:54:24from the likes of Lords Trimble and Kilclooney,
2:54:24 > 2:54:28as well as the former Ulster Unionist MP, David Burnside.
2:54:28 > 2:54:31Our political correspondent, Gareth Gordon, spoke to Mr Burnside
2:54:31 > 2:54:33yesterday and asked him why,
2:54:33 > 2:54:36when the UUP says the Brexit vote is a matter for individual members,
2:54:36 > 2:54:40he felt it necessary to speak up in such a high-profile way.
2:54:41 > 2:54:43Because we are coming to probably
2:54:43 > 2:54:48the most important decision in my lifetime that this country has made
2:54:48 > 2:54:50and if we get it wrong, I think
2:54:50 > 2:54:53it will be seriously damaging for this country.
2:54:53 > 2:54:56I regard the uncertainty of remaining in the EU as
2:54:56 > 2:55:00the biggest threat to the EU and a great opportunity if we leave,
2:55:00 > 2:55:04so I and a lot of former Ulster Unionist colleagues decided
2:55:04 > 2:55:06we wanted to express our views.
2:55:06 > 2:55:09We're no more expert than anybody else but we have
2:55:09 > 2:55:12a bit of experience on the subject and we feel very strongly about it.
2:55:12 > 2:55:16It'll be good for Northern Ireland and good for the UK to leave.
2:55:16 > 2:55:19You say in the letter that Ulster unionism has always been
2:55:19 > 2:55:23first and foremost about protecting the sovereignty and independence
2:55:23 > 2:55:26of the entire UK, but what about those who would say
2:55:26 > 2:55:32that a Brexit vote could lead to the break-up of the UK, or even more so,
2:55:32 > 2:55:34since we're here, a united Ireland?
2:55:34 > 2:55:38No. Well, let's take the two examples that might be under most threat -
2:55:38 > 2:55:42Scotland, the most pressing one in recent years with the recent
2:55:42 > 2:55:45referendum for staying in the union.
2:55:45 > 2:55:48There are people scaremongering, Sturgeon scaremongering in Scotland
2:55:48 > 2:55:53saying she will call for another referendum if UK leaves.
2:55:53 > 2:55:56That's the last thing she wants.
2:55:56 > 2:55:57She would hate that to happen
2:55:57 > 2:56:01cos she knows in the opinion polls in Scotland and the reality,
2:56:01 > 2:56:05the real opinion polls, the election in Scotland,
2:56:05 > 2:56:10that probably 10% of the population in Scotland who are voting SNP
2:56:10 > 2:56:15in a local parliament election in Scotland are pro-union,
2:56:15 > 2:56:20so she would lose another vote and she doesn't want to lose twice.
2:56:20 > 2:56:22If you take Northern Ireland,
2:56:22 > 2:56:26all the threats and scaremongering about we're going to have...
2:56:26 > 2:56:30I'm old enough to remember Triptiks, that triangle you used to
2:56:30 > 2:56:33stick, my father used to stick on the front of the car when
2:56:33 > 2:56:35you crossed the border custom posts,
2:56:35 > 2:56:38there's no reason we should have that if we Brexit and
2:56:38 > 2:56:41the Republic of Ireland obviously stays as a part of the EU.
2:56:41 > 2:56:44We can have a special relationship.
2:56:44 > 2:56:47Our letter points out, in the Belfast Agreement,
2:56:47 > 2:56:52we set up North-South co-operation between North and South,
2:56:52 > 2:56:54we set up the North-West East-West Council,
2:56:54 > 2:56:58we can work out a deal where travel will be as easy as it is now,
2:56:58 > 2:57:01North and South. On immigration control,
2:57:01 > 2:57:04yes, we would need to look at new arrangements
2:57:04 > 2:57:08but immigration is a major, major threat to the United Kingdom,
2:57:08 > 2:57:11and the British government, Conservative or Labour,
2:57:11 > 2:57:12have not dealt with the problem.
2:57:12 > 2:57:16But what about the growing number of Catholics here who may have been
2:57:16 > 2:57:18described as soft nationalists
2:57:18 > 2:57:20but are relatively happy with the status quo here -
2:57:20 > 2:57:24will they not be unnerved by a Brexit?
2:57:24 > 2:57:27- No, I don't think so.- Are you sure?
2:57:27 > 2:57:30I'm not sure. I'm not sure until next Thursday.
2:57:30 > 2:57:33And I don't accept this sectarian headcount any longer about
2:57:33 > 2:57:35the Prods who are just voting for the union
2:57:35 > 2:57:38and the Catholics who are voting for a united Ireland.
2:57:38 > 2:57:42That is not correct. It's not correct in the opinion polls.
2:57:42 > 2:57:45It's not correct the breakdown of the parties. You know, Gareth,
2:57:45 > 2:57:47at the last election it was the nationalist vote
2:57:47 > 2:57:50that was falling, it wasn't the unionist vote.
2:57:50 > 2:57:53- We know...- But that could change if there's a Brexit.- Of course it can.
2:57:53 > 2:57:56There are Catholics voting for the Ulster Unionist Party.
2:57:56 > 2:57:58There are Catholics who vote for the Alliance Party.
2:57:58 > 2:58:00There are Catholics voting for parties,
2:58:00 > 2:58:03admittedly most of them are Remain,
2:58:03 > 2:58:08but the Ulster Unionist Party, my party, basically is
2:58:08 > 2:58:11like the Conservative Party, you can do what you want.
2:58:11 > 2:58:15And I think there will be a lot of unionists who will vote to leave
2:58:15 > 2:58:18and I think there will be a lot of Catholics, whether unionist
2:58:18 > 2:58:21or soft nationalists, looking at the interests,
2:58:21 > 2:58:24their economic interests and stability in the future,
2:58:24 > 2:58:26will be voting to leave.
2:58:26 > 2:58:29David Burnside there, and with me now are the organisers
2:58:29 > 2:58:33of the Leave and Remain campaigns here - Lee Reynolds and Tom Kelly.
2:58:33 > 2:58:36Welcome to you both. Tom Kelly, first of all,
2:58:36 > 2:58:39I'll come to the comments of David Burnside and Richard Haass
2:58:39 > 2:58:42in just a moment, but the murder of Jo Cox on Thursday
2:58:42 > 2:58:44has cast a pall over the last week of campaigning.
2:58:44 > 2:58:47Both sides called off their activities, as we know,
2:58:47 > 2:58:49for a period of over 48 hours.
2:58:49 > 2:58:52What impact is that having for your respective campaigns?
2:58:52 > 2:58:55I think first of all that it gives us all a period of reflection.
2:58:55 > 2:58:57Anybody involved in politics at all
2:58:57 > 2:59:02should be reflecting on the values that Jo Cox represented,
2:59:02 > 2:59:06and to get people to understand that differences are just that -
2:59:06 > 2:59:07differences of opinion.
2:59:07 > 2:59:10They are not a call to action for people to go and do things.
2:59:10 > 2:59:13That's not... The problem is that people,
2:59:13 > 2:59:15with language comes responsibility,
2:59:15 > 2:59:17and sometimes that has been careless, and I think
2:59:17 > 2:59:20that has made everybody sit back and look at the language
2:59:20 > 2:59:22they've been using over the past number of weeks
2:59:22 > 2:59:25and tempering that language, and trying to get people to,
2:59:25 > 2:59:28if you want to use that Portadown expression, wind their necks in.
2:59:28 > 2:59:32What kind of impact has it had on your campaign, Lee Reynolds?
2:59:32 > 2:59:34Firstly, when you see such a tragedy,
2:59:34 > 2:59:38you want to express your sympathy and respect for the family,
2:59:38 > 2:59:41and the tragic time and situation they're dealing with.
2:59:41 > 2:59:46It also gave us a sense and an opportunity to reflect
2:59:46 > 2:59:50on where politics is going and the need to improve debate.
2:59:50 > 2:59:52Lord Ashdown has said this morning
2:59:52 > 2:59:56he's ashamed at the tone of the campaign.
2:59:56 > 2:59:58Do you share his view, Tom Kelly?
2:59:58 > 3:00:00Do you perhaps agree with him?
3:00:00 > 3:00:03Do you feel in any way responsible for that?
3:00:03 > 3:00:05No, I don't.
3:00:05 > 3:00:08Because I have my own personal record to stand on
3:00:08 > 3:00:09for the past 15, 20 years
3:00:09 > 3:00:12and I am very conscious of the use of language
3:00:12 > 3:00:16and it's something I continually harp on about in my own columns.
3:00:16 > 3:00:18I continually harangue politicians for it
3:00:18 > 3:00:21and I think that the level of debate, political debate,
3:00:21 > 3:00:24has descended so badly over the past number of months on this
3:00:24 > 3:00:27and fears have been unrealistically stoked up.
3:00:27 > 3:00:30Then you get consequences to these things.
3:00:30 > 3:00:33And that's on all sides of political debate.
3:00:33 > 3:00:38So my view is that people need to take a stand back,
3:00:38 > 3:00:41cooling-off period, and actually start to think about
3:00:41 > 3:00:45what this society needs and what type of society we want to be.
3:00:45 > 3:00:49Much has been made of the toxicity of the debate in recent weeks.
3:00:49 > 3:00:50Lee Reynolds, it has to be said
3:00:50 > 3:00:53it has been a lot less toxic in Northern Ireland
3:00:53 > 3:00:55than it has been across the water.
3:00:55 > 3:00:57Well, yes. We've tried as much as we possibly can
3:00:57 > 3:00:58to make the positive case
3:00:58 > 3:01:02for Northern Ireland as part of the United Kingdom leaving European Union.
3:01:02 > 3:01:05That is the position, we've tried to sell the positive case
3:01:05 > 3:01:06to people in Northern Ireland.
3:01:06 > 3:01:08That's how we've designed and shaped the campaign.
3:01:08 > 3:01:11We knew the national messages would get through the national media
3:01:11 > 3:01:13but very much we wanted to sell it
3:01:13 > 3:01:16as "This is why it's good for the people of Northern Ireland."
3:01:16 > 3:01:18OK. So, on that, if perhaps not very much else,
3:01:18 > 3:01:21the two of you absolutely are in agreement, is that right?
3:01:21 > 3:01:26- Yes.- OK. Let's talk about Richard Haass and David Burnside.
3:01:26 > 3:01:28Richard Haass, first of all, has helped...
3:01:28 > 3:01:31Or has Richard Haass helped the Remain campaign, do you think,
3:01:31 > 3:01:35Tom Kelly, by suggesting a vote to leave on Thursday
3:01:35 > 3:01:37could trigger violence and political gridlock?
3:01:37 > 3:01:41I didn't hear how at the start he articulated this point of view
3:01:41 > 3:01:43but I've heard him now this morning
3:01:43 > 3:01:46and my view is, yes, I can understand where he's coming from.
3:01:46 > 3:01:50It doesn't take a lot to destabilise people at Stormont.
3:01:50 > 3:01:52It is always stop, go, stop, go,
3:01:52 > 3:01:56and there are huge issues on the agenda still unresolved.
3:01:56 > 3:01:58We saw them last week with Loughinisland,
3:01:58 > 3:02:00we saw them with the Kingsmills murders,
3:02:00 > 3:02:03people take diametrically opposed views and from those
3:02:03 > 3:02:05you get destabilisation. Then you throw, into the cocktail mix
3:02:05 > 3:02:07of the normal instability between the two sides,
3:02:07 > 3:02:11constitutional issues, and then all of a sudden it's all up for grabs.
3:02:11 > 3:02:12So are you saying you agree with him
3:02:12 > 3:02:15that there could be violence and political gridlock
3:02:15 > 3:02:17if there is a vote to leave on Thursday?
3:02:17 > 3:02:21Well, Mark, I'm of that generation that was robbed of their actual...
3:02:21 > 3:02:23what they were entitled to as a generation -
3:02:23 > 3:02:27to live in a place free and happy and at peace,
3:02:27 > 3:02:32and I've seen how people my age got drawn in on both sides to issues,
3:02:32 > 3:02:35mainly over the border, mainly over constitutional issues,
3:02:35 > 3:02:39and I have watched the same slide happening again with the dissidents,
3:02:39 > 3:02:42and therefore it doesn't take an awful lot for
3:02:42 > 3:02:44powerful people with powerful messages to get out there and
3:02:44 > 3:02:48get into communities, particularly working-class communities,
3:02:48 > 3:02:50and destabilise those at a grassroots level.
3:02:50 > 3:02:53I believe that's a genuine fear.
3:02:53 > 3:02:56Does it concern you, Lee Reynolds, that a respected international
3:02:56 > 3:02:59figure like Richard Haass, who knows this place very well,
3:02:59 > 3:03:00has said what he has said?
3:03:00 > 3:03:03Well, as someone who saw Richard Haass up close and personal
3:03:03 > 3:03:05during the last Haass process,
3:03:05 > 3:03:09his misjudged intervention was no surprise to me
3:03:09 > 3:03:12considering how he mishandled his own process.
3:03:12 > 3:03:13That's what that is, in your view?
3:03:13 > 3:03:16Yes, it is, and it's also...
3:03:16 > 3:03:19It's just a genuine insult to the people of Northern Ireland.
3:03:19 > 3:03:24We are not some blood-crazed group of people who at the drop...
3:03:24 > 3:03:27- I don't think he's suggesting that. - He's suggesting that
3:03:27 > 3:03:32a democratic vote would result in a deterioration into violence.
3:03:32 > 3:03:37We have had peace here for 20 years because people wanted,
3:03:37 > 3:03:40have maintained it and have kept it going.
3:03:40 > 3:03:42That is what we will do.
3:03:42 > 3:03:45We can defeat the dissident terrorist organisations and we will.
3:03:45 > 3:03:49Our security forces are already having very substantial success
3:03:49 > 3:03:53in dealing with them, and it's not only because there are new techniques and all the rest of it,
3:03:53 > 3:03:56because they are getting the support and information from the ground.
3:03:56 > 3:04:00But his point is a simple point, distilled down - why would you
3:04:00 > 3:04:04jeopardise what has been achieved by leaping in the dark?
3:04:04 > 3:04:07It isn't a leap in the dark, it's a step towards progress.
3:04:07 > 3:04:10It's a step towards more. If we leave the European Union
3:04:10 > 3:04:13we're actually empowering London and Belfast.
3:04:13 > 3:04:16How much of a shot in the arm, then, to your campaign
3:04:16 > 3:04:21do you think the letter from that group of unionist grandees has been?
3:04:21 > 3:04:25Every section of society that comes forward and endorses your campaign
3:04:25 > 3:04:29and encourages people to vote for you is of obvious benefit for you.
3:04:29 > 3:04:32So you're pretty happy to hear what David Burnside had to say?
3:04:32 > 3:04:34I welcome it, because it's true.
3:04:34 > 3:04:37There is not a threat to the peace process by a democratic vote.
3:04:37 > 3:04:40- OK. Tom Kelly?- Well, I'm kind of incredulous because
3:04:40 > 3:04:44I've never heard so many unionists being so enthusiastic for cross-border relations
3:04:44 > 3:04:46and what's going on on the ground,
3:04:46 > 3:04:49because that's the first time you really hear that.
3:04:49 > 3:04:51The overwhelming praise for David Trimble,
3:04:51 > 3:04:53it's a long time coming, but I'm sure he appreciates it
3:04:53 > 3:04:55even though it's on the wrong issue.
3:04:55 > 3:04:57I think ultimately what we have here
3:04:57 > 3:05:00are a group of people who are completely out of touch,
3:05:00 > 3:05:04they're of a generation who are ideologically opposed, for years,
3:05:04 > 3:05:07to the whole concept of Europe and the whole togetherness of Europe.
3:05:07 > 3:05:09Therefore they find it difficult,
3:05:09 > 3:05:12when provided an opportunity for a referendum, which, let's face it,
3:05:12 > 3:05:14nobody particularly wanted,
3:05:14 > 3:05:16this is a battle about the Tory party leadership...
3:05:16 > 3:05:18Are you guilty here of conflating two things?
3:05:18 > 3:05:21You don't know what any of those individuals think about Europe.
3:05:21 > 3:05:22They may not like the European Union
3:05:22 > 3:05:25but that's not the same as saying they don't like Europe.
3:05:25 > 3:05:26I know what one or two of them do
3:05:26 > 3:05:29because I was speaking to them in the airport the other day.
3:05:29 > 3:05:31But there is a very important point to be made -
3:05:31 > 3:05:32Europe is not the European Union.
3:05:32 > 3:05:34Boris Johnson is a good example of that.
3:05:34 > 3:05:36He doesn't particularly like the European Union
3:05:36 > 3:05:39- but he's a big supporter of Europe. - Boris Johnson, to my mind,
3:05:39 > 3:05:42is the most disingenuous person when it comes to the EU.
3:05:42 > 3:05:44I've heard him speak. I'm the chairman of Square Mile magazine
3:05:44 > 3:05:47in the City of London. I've had him at our own dinners.
3:05:47 > 3:05:49I've heard him giving the most Europhile speeches
3:05:49 > 3:05:50in terms of support of the EU
3:05:50 > 3:05:54and his recent conversion is more to do with getting into Number 10.
3:05:54 > 3:05:56The unfortunate thing from my point of view is
3:05:56 > 3:05:59the number of jobs he may cost in society to get that one job.
3:05:59 > 3:06:02Right. Let's talk about the campaign so far and where you think
3:06:02 > 3:06:06it goes from here. The most recent polls, Lee Reynolds,
3:06:06 > 3:06:08seem to suggest there has been a shift in the public mood
3:06:08 > 3:06:11towards Leave. Do you believe that is the case?
3:06:11 > 3:06:14In Northern Ireland, yes, we do believe that to be the case.
3:06:14 > 3:06:17- Just in Northern Ireland?- Also nationally, we've seen it as well.
3:06:17 > 3:06:20Right, so right across the whole UK, including Northern Ireland?
3:06:20 > 3:06:22- Yes.- Right. To what extent? To the extent that
3:06:22 > 3:06:25you can now relax and take your foot off the gas?
3:06:25 > 3:06:28No, no, absolutely not. When we entered this campaign,
3:06:28 > 3:06:30we were convinced that we were the underdog.
3:06:30 > 3:06:34We knew any victory we would achieve would be a very hard-fought one,
3:06:34 > 3:06:38and we will not be stopping the battle to win the vote on Thursday
3:06:38 > 3:06:40until ten o'clock on Thursday.
3:06:40 > 3:06:44But do you believe as we speak today, Sunday,
3:06:44 > 3:06:48before the vote on Thursday, that you will be successful on Thursday?
3:06:48 > 3:06:51I believe we can be successful. It is on a knife edge.
3:06:51 > 3:06:53There is very significant...
3:06:53 > 3:06:55The polls, I believe, nationally are correct.
3:06:55 > 3:06:58We're within the margin of error. Every single vote will count
3:06:58 > 3:07:01but this is the thing, it's on Thursday, who turns up,
3:07:01 > 3:07:04and the battle is to get people to go and express their democratic will
3:07:04 > 3:07:06- and I hope they vote Leave. - And, Tom Kelly, do you believe
3:07:06 > 3:07:09the direction of travel is indeed towards Leave?
3:07:09 > 3:07:11I think that on Thursday
3:07:11 > 3:07:16we will get an overwhelming clear majority for Remain,
3:07:16 > 3:07:19both in Northern Ireland and across the United Kingdom.
3:07:19 > 3:07:21I've been thinking that for quite a while.
3:07:21 > 3:07:24I don't accept the underdog argument from the largest party in Northern Ireland at all.
3:07:24 > 3:07:28They have been a dominant force in politics for the past nine years,
3:07:28 > 3:07:31so I don't particularly accept that, but the bottom line is, for me,
3:07:31 > 3:07:35I think people have to internalise this referendum for themselves.
3:07:35 > 3:07:40It is about how it impacts YOUR family, how it impacts YOUR job.
3:07:40 > 3:07:42I think a lot of the politicians, a lot of the debate on
3:07:42 > 3:07:45the national campaign has gone over their heads in relation to that,
3:07:45 > 3:07:47but I think when people internalise it,
3:07:47 > 3:07:49I think they'll make the right choice.
3:07:49 > 3:07:52All right. Gentleman, thanks both very much for joining us today.
3:07:52 > 3:07:56Let's hear what my guests of the day, Alex Kane and Deirdre Heenan,
3:07:56 > 3:07:57make of all that. Alex, first,
3:07:57 > 3:08:00will Mike Nesbitt be disappointed at the intervention by
3:08:00 > 3:08:03senior current and former members of his party, do you think?
3:08:03 > 3:08:05I think he will be, but it's not particularly surprising.
3:08:05 > 3:08:08I think if Nesbitt had done better in the Assembly election,
3:08:08 > 3:08:10if he'd pulled in extra votes, another couple of percent,
3:08:10 > 3:08:13maybe two or three seats, they would have left him alone.
3:08:13 > 3:08:15They sense a bit of weakness, and my experience of the UUP,
3:08:15 > 3:08:18when they sense weakness in the leader, they tend to go for him,
3:08:18 > 3:08:21- and that is what we are seeing. - What about that intervention
3:08:21 > 3:08:24from the Ulster Unionists and also what Richard Haass had to say?
3:08:24 > 3:08:25Well, I think in many ways
3:08:25 > 3:08:29people are beginning to be confused by the whole issue.
3:08:29 > 3:08:31Richard Haass has talked about the peace process.
3:08:31 > 3:08:35When John Major and Tony Blair came to the University of Ulster
3:08:35 > 3:08:36we talked about the peace process,
3:08:36 > 3:08:40but in reality they talked at length about trade and the economy.
3:08:40 > 3:08:43I think we are in danger of losing the main issue here.
3:08:43 > 3:08:46When people are asked to vote, they will be asked to vote
3:08:46 > 3:08:50about leaving the largest single market in the world.
3:08:50 > 3:08:52And what are the likely implications?
3:08:52 > 3:08:55David Burnside has said he's as much as an expert as everyone else -
3:08:55 > 3:08:58well, really there are experts out there,
3:08:58 > 3:09:02there's the World Trade Organisation, the Institute for Fiscal Studies, the Treasury.
3:09:02 > 3:09:05Are we to say that they're all wrong, that they're all deluded?
3:09:05 > 3:09:09They are saying this is likely to lead to uncertainty,
3:09:09 > 3:09:12recession, a downturn, inflation,
3:09:12 > 3:09:14investors turning their face against the UK.
3:09:14 > 3:09:17Are we to say they're all on the gravy train,
3:09:17 > 3:09:19that they're all corrupt? Of course they're not.
3:09:19 > 3:09:23I think we have to look at the evidence. Lee talked about progress.
3:09:23 > 3:09:27We are going into the unknown here. Do we really want to do that?
3:09:27 > 3:09:29- Alex?- Well, I think we did go into the unknown
3:09:29 > 3:09:33when most of the European countries entered the single currency
3:09:33 > 3:09:37thinking it was the saviour of all the problems they had.
3:09:37 > 3:09:38Since then, in the past ten years,
3:09:38 > 3:09:42we have the EU wiped in terms of countries having to be bailed out,
3:09:42 > 3:09:44millions of people unemployed,
3:09:44 > 3:09:47economies crashing around their ears, welfare cuts everywhere,
3:09:47 > 3:09:51so the notion that you will necessarily be better in the EU
3:09:51 > 3:09:54as opposed to outside the EU, it's not clear one way or the other,
3:09:54 > 3:09:56but the other thing I would say about all this, Mark,
3:09:56 > 3:09:59which has really surprised me, what I hoped right at the beginning
3:09:59 > 3:10:01was this would be a very serious debate
3:10:01 > 3:10:03about the merit of the EU versus the demerit.
3:10:03 > 3:10:05What we've had is two separate battles -
3:10:05 > 3:10:08a blue on blue battle where Cameron is fighting the likes of Gove
3:10:08 > 3:10:11and Boris Johnson, but the other battle and the more disturbing one,
3:10:11 > 3:10:14he's fighting Nigel Farage's vision
3:10:14 > 3:10:16of what Nigel Farage wants England to look like.
3:10:16 > 3:10:19I think that, as someone who supports Leave,
3:10:19 > 3:10:21I think Farage has done huge damage to that campaign.
3:10:21 > 3:10:23Deirdre, do you think that at this stage
3:10:23 > 3:10:25with a few days of campaigning to go,
3:10:25 > 3:10:27most people who are going to vote on Thursday
3:10:27 > 3:10:31have now made up their minds or do you think there is all to play for
3:10:31 > 3:10:34and there could be a huge shift in the remaining few days?
3:10:34 > 3:10:36I think there is huge confusion out there.
3:10:36 > 3:10:39People are not really sure what they're being asked to vote about.
3:10:39 > 3:10:42A lot of the debate, as has been said, has gone over their head.
3:10:42 > 3:10:44So they really need to think about "What does this mean for me,
3:10:44 > 3:10:47"what does this mean for my family and my community?"
3:10:47 > 3:10:52What we do know is that we are better in a larger organisation,
3:10:52 > 3:10:54trading with our global partners.
3:10:54 > 3:10:56- But they don't know that. That's your opinion.- Yes.
3:10:56 > 3:10:59- Alex takes a very different view. - What we are being asked to do...
3:10:59 > 3:11:01- That's what's confusing for people. - Or take a leap in the dark.
3:11:01 > 3:11:03We've been told that in this leap in the dark
3:11:03 > 3:11:05everything out there will be hunky-dory
3:11:05 > 3:11:07but there is absolutely no evidence to support that
3:11:07 > 3:11:11and I think people need to look at what the evidence suggests.
3:11:11 > 3:11:13And are all these leading economists wrong?
3:11:13 > 3:11:15OK, well, we're looking at the evidence,
3:11:15 > 3:11:17we're all looking at the same evidence, Alex,
3:11:17 > 3:11:19but we're drawing different conclusions.
3:11:19 > 3:11:21Absolutely. Deirdre says about taking a leap in the dark -
3:11:21 > 3:11:25that's exactly what people were asked to do in the 1998 referendum
3:11:25 > 3:11:26on the Good Friday Agreement.
3:11:26 > 3:11:29One side telling them this is a one-way ticket to united Ireland
3:11:29 > 3:11:30and disaster and the other saying,
3:11:30 > 3:11:33"We don't know what will happen, let's see what happens."
3:11:33 > 3:11:36We showed, in my belief because I backed it, we showed bravery then.
3:11:36 > 3:11:38I just don't buy into this notion
3:11:38 > 3:11:40that either side can say with certainty,
3:11:40 > 3:11:43"We are absolutely right or wrong." And it's not confusing, Deidre.
3:11:43 > 3:11:45Confusion is where people genuinely don't know what is going on.
3:11:45 > 3:11:48What we have here is people being asked to make the most
3:11:48 > 3:11:51difficult decision in life. It's an entirely emotional decision.
3:11:51 > 3:11:54- But it is confusion.- It's not.- Is it about immigration, the economy?
3:11:54 > 3:11:56It's what they choose to make it, that's not confusion.
3:11:56 > 3:11:59Is it about power, control? They can't compute all of those things.
3:11:59 > 3:12:00At the end of the day, it's about
3:12:00 > 3:12:03"How does this impact on me, how will this impact on my children?
3:12:03 > 3:12:05"How will this impact on Northern Ireland and the future?"
3:12:05 > 3:12:07OK. A final sentence, Alex?
3:12:07 > 3:12:09Final sentence, I don't think they're confused.
3:12:09 > 3:12:12I think people actually know. If there is any element of confusion,
3:12:12 > 3:12:14they don't believe either side at the minute.
3:12:14 > 3:12:17OK. It will be an interesting few days of campaigning
3:12:17 > 3:12:20before the vote. Thank you both very much indeed.
3:12:20 > 3:12:22That's it from Sunday Politics for this week.
3:12:22 > 3:12:25Join me for Stormont Today on BBC Two at 11:15pm on Monday
3:12:25 > 3:12:29but for now, from everyone on the team, thanks for watching. Bye-bye.